GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $28.30 TO $2337.80
SILVER PRICE UP 0.97 TO 30.12
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2323.15
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.64
Bitcoin morning price:$67,800 UP 625 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $68,441 UP 1266 dollars
Platinum price closing UP $13.05 TO $969.75
Palladium price; UP $20.45 AT $911..60
END
there is no question we have a derivative problem especially with the high numbers of Exchange for physicals issued for gold and silver.. Andrew Maguire will address this on Friday.
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 36 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//JULY TO JULY
SHANGHAI GOLD
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
I will now provide gold in Canadian dollars, British pounds and Euros
4: 15 PM ACCESS
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3187.52 UP 3.24 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1814.94 DOWN 2.90 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2149.88 DOWN 6.79 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
ACCESS MARKETEXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,307.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/11/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 06/13/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DB AG 2
190 H BMO CAPITAL 48
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 85
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 190
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 2
657 H MORGAN STANLEY 361
661 C JP MORGAN 25 3
661 H JP MORGAN 7
686 H STONEX FINANCIA 3
690 C ABN AMRO 8
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 5 13
880 H CITIGROUP 9
905 C ADM 2 21
TOTAL: 393 393
MONTH TO DATE: 28,995
JPMorgan stopped 10/393
FOR JUNE 2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 393 NOTICES FOR 39,300 OZ or 1.2222 TONNES
total notices so far: 2,899,500 contracts for 2,899,500 Oz (90.1866 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :1114 for 5.570 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $29.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ : HUGE CHANGE IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD’ A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.78TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 830.78 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.97 AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV
// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 427.125 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 427.125 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY AN ULTRA HUGE SIZED 2987 CONTRACTS TO 176,036 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.59 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET LOSS OF CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION. WE HAD ANOTHER MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 5,561 T.A.S ISSUANCE, THE 3ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR SILVER, AND THESE WILL BE USED FOR MANIPULATION LATER THIS MONTH/AS WELL AS TODAY. PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED LAST TUESDAY AND AGAIN LAST FRIDAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 5561 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND TODAY;S TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.59) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2787 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.59
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A SMALL SIZED 200 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.830 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 6.305 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 5561 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 442 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 DAYS, total 7424 contracts: OR 37.120 MILLION OZ (928 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 36.120 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 37.120 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2787 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 200 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.830 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JUNE 6.305 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 2787 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 5561 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND STRONG NET LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (5561) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1854 OI CONTRACTS TO 436,857 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED 20 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (1854 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.30 IN PRICE/TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 89.94 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 35,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND
NEW STANDING 91.611 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $0.30 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2632 OI CONTRACTS (8.186 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A SMALL SIZED 755 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 436,857
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2632 CONTRACTS WITH 1854 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A SMALL SIZED 775 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2609 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 775 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (775 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 1854 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2632 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 88.761 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP TO 1.0886 TONNES
//NEW STANDING /JUNE 90.522 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2891 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 27,899 CONTRACTS OR 2,789,900 OZ OR 86.777 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3487 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 86.777 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 86.777 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.44% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 86.777 tonnes HEADING FOR A STRONG MONTH
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2987 CONTRACTS OI TO 176,036 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 200 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2987 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2787 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 13.935 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR HUMONGOUS $0.59 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.42 PTS OR 0.31% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 238.08 PTS OR 0.66%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 258.08 OR 0.66%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.63%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2536 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2689/ Oil UP TO 78.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.70 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A FAIR SIZED 1844 CONTRACTS TO 436,857 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.30 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GOOD SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A SMALL SIZED 775 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 775 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 775 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2632 CONTRACTS IN THAT 775 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 1854 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.30
/ /TUESDAY COMEX. AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 2891 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. TUESDAY IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (90.617 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 90.617 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $0.30 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2632 CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 8.115 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (89.94 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 47 CONTRACTS OR 4700 OZ (0.8979 TONNES)
NEW STANDING FOR JUNE: 91.617 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $0.30
WE HAVE ADDED 20 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2632 CONTRACTS OR 263200 (8.186 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 153,853 contracts//poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
JUNE 12 JUNE GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JUNE 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 6017.560 oz brinks real gold leaving . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | 0 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 0 OZ//BRINKS |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 393 notice(s) 39,300 OZ 1.2222 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 458 contracts 45,800 OZ 1.424 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 28,995 notices 2,899,500 oz 90.1866 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
brinks; 6017.560 oz
this is a real gold transfer out of the comex
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 6017.50 0z
Adjustments: 5/dealer to customer account
when we see this, it general means the comex is in stress
a) Brinks 3665.214 oz
b) HJSBC 24,454.665 oz
c) JPMorgan: 2121,966 oz
d) Loomis: 3279.402 oz
e) Manfra: 12,986.099 oz
total 46,508.299 oz or 1.44 tonnes
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 851 contracts having GAINED 322 contracts. We had 28 contracts served on Tuesday so we gained a huge 350 contracts or 35,000 oz additional ounces will stand for gold at the comex as they underwent a MASSIVE queue jump to take delivery on this side of the pond.. We saw a dubious small kilobar entry gold leaving the comex on TUESDAY. Thus despite the huge 91 PLUS tonnes of gold standing at the comex little gold is arriving and hardly any gold is leaving.
JULY GAINED 186 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2474
AUGUST GAINED 509 CONTRACTS UP TO 357,221 CONTRACTS
We had 393 contracts filed for today representing 39300 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 25 notice was issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 393 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 10 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for June /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (28,995) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (851 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (393 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,945,300 OZ OR 91.617 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (28,995 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of June (851 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (393) x 100 oz which equals 2,945,300 oz (91.617 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE: 91.617 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. JUNE IS TRADITIONALLY THE 2ND HIGHEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR. FROM THIS POINT WE WILL GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,680,714/128 52.27 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,662,910 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,951,205.990 ( 247.31 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,705,686.663 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,270,491 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 195.03 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUN 12/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JUNE 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 582.684.867 oz Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,182,296.529 oz Asahi Manfra |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 147 contracts (0.735 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1114 Contracts (5.570 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 deposits customer account:
i) into Ashai: 587,731.200 oz
ii) into Manfra: 594,565.329
total customer deposit 1,182,296.529 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.416million oz/297/190million or 43.20%
adjustment: 0//
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) out of Delaware: 582,684.867 oz
total withdrawal: 582,684.867 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 62.494MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.190
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE/2024 OI: 147 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 2 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 1 NOTICE SERVED UP ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A SMALL QUEUE JUMP
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 9547 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 102,752
AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 16 CONTRACTS TO 237
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 6255 CONTRACTS TO 55,335
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for 0 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 108,931 GIGANTIC
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1114 x 5,000 oz = 5.570 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE ((147) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2024 contract month: 1114 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (147)x number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 6.305 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 6.305 million oz.
There are 62.494 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.36 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES
MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $32.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES
MAY 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $12,00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $21.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.10 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 838.54 TONNES
MAY 17 WITH GOLD UP $31.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $34.90 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
MAY 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 10 WITH GOLD UP $34.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 9 WITH GOLD UP $18.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD////INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
MAY 6WITH GOLD UP $21.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF .55 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 831.64 TONNES
MAY 2 WITH GOLD UP $0.20 ON THE DAY; SMAKK CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.17 TONNES IF FGOLD FROM THE GLD//INVENTORY FALLS AT 830.47 TONNES
MAY 1 WITH GOLD UP $7.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:INVENTORY RISES AT 832.19 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 835.67 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
Now the SLV Inventory/( vehicle is a fraud as there is no physical metal behind them
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
MAY 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF .822 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 421.313 MILLION OZ
MAY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.736 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVINVENTORY INCREASES TO 420.491 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.66 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.41 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A DEPOSIT OF 3.792 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $1.28 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.005 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 418.435 MILLION OZ
MAY 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.37 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 868,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 419.440 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 101 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV NVENTORY RESTS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 13 WITH SILVER DOWN 4 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;NVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 10 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.,828 MILLION OZ//INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 9 WITH SILVER UP 78 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 8 WITH SILVER DOWN 11 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 7WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 6 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.055 MILLION OZ
MAY 3 WITH SILVER DOWN 12 CENTS TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF 0.338MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 2WITH SILVER UP 0.12 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A WITHDRAWALOF 4.471 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 424.695 MILLION OZ
MAY 1 WITH SILVER UP 0.09 TODAY: SMALLCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ A DEPOSIT OF ,457 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV INVENTORY RESTS AT 429.814 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 427.125 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
China’s real estate sector has been in trouble for years and it is taking its toll on their economy
(Peter Schiff)
China’s Real Estate Crisis: A New Experiment In State Intervention
TUESDAY, JUN 11, 2024 – 07:40 PM
The real estate market is responsible for anywhere from 20% to over 30% of China’s GDP (depending on who you ask). And with the latest meltdown that began with the implosion of Evergrande, the situation just keeps getting worse, inspiring a slew of government interventions beyond the scope of what would be possible in a country like the US.
It’s a test of China’s authority, and its ability to micromanage what was mismanaged from the start. With China’s real estate stocks down 20% since May can the CCP, in all its centralized power, prevent a full meltdown?
China may succeed in kicking the can down the road, but it can’t save the real estate market — or economy — in the long term. Either way, history indicates that the current drawdown likely still has a long way down to go.
This chart shows a run-up to the current route, not long before the liquidation calls began for Evergrande and Country Garden and set the latest RE spiral into motion:
You will find more infographics at Statista
The People’s Bank of China can directly inject liquidity into a struggling sector. But state-owned companies also get to buy properties at government-set prices. The state and central bank can also change mortgage rates and payment requirements directly, unlike in the US where banks react to the federal funds rate set by the Fed. China is also loosening general restrictions on who is allowed to buy a home, hoping to juice the market and reduce vacancies, but there’s a potential catch-22 inherent to all such historic-level interventions:
If they stoke concerns among consumers and investors that the crisis is something to be deeply worried about, this can fuel a self-fulfilling feedback loop that worsens investor confidence even further.
Meanwhile, home buyers who fit the previously stringent criteria for buying homes feel duped now that those restrictions have been eased, devaluing their social status and the work they put into the home-buying process. With many complexes now having their unsold buildings turned into public housing, citizens who saved up their whole lives to become homeowners in these areas are becoming enraged to discover that their complexes will now be subsidized. Not only does that mean they paid too much, but their home’s attractiveness as a longer-term investment could drop.
According to Goldman Sachs, the current interventions still aren’t enough. A recent report calls for more liquidity to the tune of $276 billion (¥2 trillion yuan) to stabilize housing in major mainland cities, with ¥20 trillion yuan worth of real estate in need of a savior.
This liquidity would be meant to stop prices from continuing to plummet and allow over-indebted developers to pay back loans and interest. But in a market in need of such an intervention, even once prices stop plummeting, many become rightfully hesitant to become buyers. The below chart of China’s M2 money supply shows a dip in April 2024. It will be interesting to take another look after China’s intervention floods the economy with $500 billion yuan worth of relending programs.
To make matters worse in the longer term, declining birthrate and an aging population both indicate that demand is not going to pick back up enough to fill the apartments and houses built during China’s decades-long urbanization frenzy. This is a generational problem that goes beyond a single crash, liquidation, or bankruptcy — and can’t be properly fixed with centralized market interventions. Beyond that, even people in their prime home-buying age are more worried about future earnings than they used to be, without the feverish demand for urban homes that characterized so much of China’s rise to a global economic power.
In a free market, nature determines the winners and losers. But in a command-and-control economy, the State gets to decide. And when the interventions brazenly defy economic reality, as central banks always do, everyone ends up losing in the end. That is, except for the central bank, the government, and their preferred cronies, who will be the ones who get the free money and the bailouts when it all comes crashing down.
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
end
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS/
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT//COFFEE BEANS //ROBUSTA
Brewing Storm: World’s Top Robusta Coffee Producer Reports Smallest Export Since 2009
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 04:15 AM
More troubling news is brewing for coffee lovers from the world’s top-producing country in Southeast Asia.
New export data reveals a sharp decline in robusta beans, commonly used in instant coffee and espresso and as a filler in various ground coffee blends. This development is part of a broader trend of tightening global supplies and soaring bean prices, exacerbating food inflation and hitting cash-strapped working poor consumers.
Bloomberg data shows Vietnam’s coffee exports plunged to the smallest volume in at least 15 years in May. Low exports are expected to persist for several months, which will only pressure prices higher.
Shipments from the world’s biggest producer of the robusta variety slumped to less than 80,000 tons in May, down 47% from a year ago, customs data show. That’s the lowest amount of beans exported for the month since 2009. -Bloomberg
Do Ha Nam, chairman of top shipper Intimex Group and deputy head of the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association, said monthly export data would be “insignificant” until the harvest of new beans begins in October. He warned stockpiles are quickly being depleted by farmers.
Tightening global supplies have rocketed robusta futures in London to the highest in 16 years.
About a third of the world’s robusta beans come from Vietnam.
Companies, such as J.M. Smucker Co., whose brands include Folgers, Dunkin’, Café Bustelo, Pilon, and Medaglia d’Oro, recently warned of imminent price hikes across its brands due to the surge in bean prices.
The coffee category continues to experience commodity volatility and overall meaningful inflation. In response to recent higher green coffee costs that we will begin to incur during the first quarter, we are taking a list price increase across parts of our portfolio in early June. As always, we will continue to manage our coffee business through a strategy that demonstrates a balance between recovering inflationary input costs, while providing consumers with attractive options ranging from value to premium.
Translation: Supermarket prices for coffee, especially J.M. Smucker’s brands, are set to move higher, if not already, thus raising food inflation for consumers.
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.42 PTS OR 0.31% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 238.08 PTS OR 0.66%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 258.08 OR 0.66%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.63%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2536 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2689/ Oil UP TO 78.80 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.70 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2534
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.26899
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.42 PTS OR 0.31 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 238.50 PTS OR 1.31%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 258.08 PTS OR 0.66 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.72 EURO RISES TO 1.0759 DOWN 48 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.974 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 157.34 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.67490/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.150 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.513%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.689
3j Gold at $2312.95//Silver at: 29.35 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 0/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 89.10
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 157.15/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.974% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8937 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9638 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.399 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.534 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.838 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.37…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.283 DOWN 5 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Set For New Record High Ahead Of CPI, Fed Double Header
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 08:13 AM
Futures are up modestly after another record close on Wall Street heading into today’s double whammy of CPI, and FOMC Dot Plot update, with Nasdaq leading and small-caps lagging. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 0.1% to 5,390 and set to extend the stretch of record highs as traders position for the potential disruption from US inflation data landing just hours ahead of Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday; Nasdaq futures rose 0.2%. Bond yields are flat to down 1bp after a stellar 10Y auction yesterday; the Bloomberg Dollar index rose again after four days of gains. Commodities are higher, led by Energy, despite with metals lagging. Today’s focus will be on the doubleheader of CPI and the Fed (our previews can be found here and here).
In premarket trading, Mag7 and semis names are mostly positive thanks to Oracle shares surging 8.7% to a new record high after the infrastructure software company announced a cloud infrastructure partnership with Google Cloud, as well as one with Microsoft and OpenAI. Oracle also reported fourth-quarter results that featured better-than-expected Cloud Infrastructure revenue, even as it missed on total revenue and earnings. PetMed shares drop 11% after the online pet pharmacy reported results.
Investors are preparing for a rare double-whammy of US CPI data and Fed announcements that have the potential to upend markets.
“Today is a big day in terms of economic data and Fed announcement,” said Ipek Ozkardeskaya, an analyst at Swissquote Bank. “It could determine the global market mood for the rest of the month, and a good part of summer.”
While policymakers are widely expected to hold borrowing costs at a two-decade high, there’s less certainty on officials’ quarterly rate projections, also known as the dot plot, where most expect the Fed to revise its dot plot from three rate cuts for the balance of 2024 to two, but a hawkish surprise of just one rate cut can not be excluded (see preview here). In any case, Fed voters already have the CPI print for May and it will feature prominently in their deliberations.
“If it’s two, I think the market reaction can be quite positive and would support new highs in the S&P 500,” Grace Peters, head of investment strategy for Europe, Middle East and Africa at JPMorgan Private Bank, said on Bloomberg TV.
Ahead of the Fed, the May consumer price index reading is due at 8:30 a.m. and is supposed to show another modest slowdown in inflation, with Goldman’s trading desk saying that it is optimistic for a low print. Here is JPM’s core CPI MoM market reaction matrix (more details here).
- Above 0.4%. The first tail-risk scenario, this outcome is likely achieved by an increase in both Core Goods and Core Services, with Core Goods flipping from deflationary to inflationary MoM. Within Core Services, we would likely see shelter inflation increase. The bond market reaction would likely be a 12-15bps increase as part of a bear flattening. Equities would react negatively to this repricing. Given the acceleration higher in inflation, rate cut bets for 2024 would evaporate and we will see the return of views of a rate hike. This would be exacerbated by any comments from Powell suggesting rates are not restrictive enough. Probability 5%, SPX falls 1.5% to 2.5%.
- Between 0.35% – 0.40%. This outcome is likely achieved by a smaller than expected disinflationary impulse from Core Goods with Shelter remaining flat. Bonds react negatively as Sept/Nov rate cut views decrease. With market fixings pricing in ~0.26% for Core MoM, the bond market reaction could be larger than expected with many Equity investors focused on the surveyed number of 0.3%. Probability 15%, SPX falls 1% to 1.25%.
- Between 0.30% – 0.35%. This scenario has the widest range of outcomes since the low end of the range supports the disinflationary trend and the higher end of the range the stickier inflation argument. Feroli’s forecast for 0.33% would keep the YoY number flat from last month’s print. The biggest drivers are weak disinflation in shelter, increases in vehicle, medical, and communication prices. Given the move in bond yields on Friday (+14.6bps to 4.43%), there is likely a more muted response to a hotter print. Also referencing Friday, it was surprising to see stocks slough off the bond market move with the SPX falling only 11bps instead of 1%+ as we have seen over the last couple years in response to significant and sudden moves in bond yields. Probability 40%, SPX loses 0.75% to gains 0.75%.
- Between 0.25% – 0.30%. As mentioned, the market fixing implies a 0.26% core reading and the move in yields may not be as strong as one would expect on a beat where one would expect ~15bps move in the 10Y yield but this is a positive outcome for risk assets as this print would likely restart the Goldilocks narrative with 24Q1 data being viewed as an anomaly. Probability 25%, SPX gains 0.75% to 1.25%.
- Between 0.20% – 0.25%. The immediate reaction would be a surge in September rate cut expectations with some likely pointing to July for a surprise, insurance cut given the move by the ECB. While July sees highly unlikely, putting September back on the table would be view favorably by risk assets and we could see some yield curve steepening to aid the Cyclicals/Value trade. Probability 12.5%, SPX gains 1.25% to 1.75%.
- Below 0.20%. Another tail-risk scenario, likely fueled by a material decline in shelter inflation with goods disinflation supporting the print. Look for a collapse in yields, a material increase in July cut expectations, and a rally across all risk assets ex-commodities. In Equities, this would look like an “everything rally” with both NDX and RTY outperforming the SPX. This outcome, if confirmed in the July print, would trigger a reset in thinking about which stage of the economic cycle we currently reside as well as talks of the Fed having achieved a No Landing/Soft Landing scenario. Probability 2.5%, SPX gains 1.75% to 2.50%.
In Europe, the volatility of the past two days is subsiding investors were caught unprepared for French far-right gains in the weekend’s European Parliament elections; European stocks are on course to rise for the first time in four sessions, led by gains in banks, insurance and financial services. The CAC 40 is higher but underperforming its regional peers as political uncertainty continues to linger. Here are the biggest European movers:
- UCB shares gain as much as 5.6%, the most since February and to a record high, after JPMorgan raised its recommendation for the Brussels-listed biotech to neutral from underweight.
- Credit Agricole shares rise as much as 3.2% after Jefferies upgrades to buy, saying that the pullback in French banks since President Emmanuel Macron called a snap election presents an opportunity.
- Rentokil shares jump as much as 16% after US investor Nelson Peltz’s Trian Fund Management amassed a stake that made it one of the ten biggest shareholders in the pest controller.
- Richter shares gain as much as 1.5% after Hungarian pharmaceutical company agreed to buy some assets from Mithra Pharmaceuticals and its subsidiary late Tuesday.
- RWS Holdings shares rise as much as 6% after the translation services company’s interim results, with Berenberg saying growth returned in the second quarter and should now continue into 2H.
- Lonza shares dip as much as 3.2%, weighed down by speculation that a potentially beneficial US bill may be excluded from the National Defense Authorization Act due to a tight pre-election schedule.
- Legal & General shares fall as much as 4.7%, most since April 25, after the UK financial services firm forecast a slowdown in dividend-per-share growth.
- Colruyt shares plunge as much as 14% after the retailer issued cautious guidance because of increased competition and promo pressure.
- Umicore shares drop as much as 9.1%, to their lowest intraday since 2011, as the Belgian materials technology firm downgraded its guidance.
- Camurus shares fall as much as 6.1% after holder Sandberg Development offers 1.35m shares at SEK550 apiece, representing approximately an 8.6% discount to the last close.
- Stabilus shares fall as much as 17%, the steepest decline on record, after the German machinery maker sent out a profit warning last night, cutting its revenue and Ebit margin guidance.
- Safestore shares drop as much as 3.1% after the self-storage company’s interim results showed a drop in adjusted earnings, while warning full-year EPS will be at the lower-end of consensus.
Earlier, stocks in Asia fell for a second day, led by weakness in Japanese and offshore Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with Alibaba and Toyota among biggest drags. Benchmark in China was flat while that in Hong Kong closed at the lowest level since late April. Shares in Japan fell, while those in Korea were among the top gainers. In China, consumer prices rose less than expected in May and factory prices dropped for the 20th month in a row, fueling concerns over persistently weak demand. “Asian markets waded through murky waters today, with investors on edge ahead of a double-dose eventful day,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets. Also, specific headwinds are raising alarms for traders in China, Hong Kong, and Japan, she said.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index slipped below the “crucial 18,000 level” due to the lackluster China’s CPI data and fresh speculation about looming US chip restrictions, Chen said, adding that Japanese stocks tumbled as hot PPI muddles the outlook for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision due this Friday.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained 0.1%, edging up for a fifth straight day as Treasury futures positioning data suggested the Fed will likely keep borrowing costs elevated. “A higher-than-expected US CPI will make the tone of the FOMC meeting more hawkish and result in USD strength,” said Richard Grace, a senior currency analyst at InTouch Capital Markets in Sydney. “Conversely, a lower-than-expected CPI will see the USD depreciate as Fed Chair Powell maintains the optimism for eventual rate cuts”
In rates, treasuries are also slightly higher ahead of US consumer prices and the Federal Reserve decision, with US 10-year yields falling 1bps to 4.40%. Traders are pricing an 80% possibility that the Fed may cut rates in November, while they price a total of 39 basis points of easing by the end of the year. French 10-year yields are flat at 3.22%. Gilts rise, with little reaction shown to a slight beat for UK GDP in April.
In commodities, oil prices are higher, with WTI rising 1.3% to trade near $78.90 a barrel. Spot gold falls ~$3 to around $2,314/oz.
Bitcoin in consolidation mode in-fitting with broader markets; currently sitting just above USD 67k.
Today’s economic calendar includes includes May CPI (8:30am), monthly budget statement and FOMC rate decision (2pm). Fed officials scheduled to speak after the FOMC meeting include Powell (2:30pm news conference), Williams (Thursday), Goolsbee and Cook (Friday)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,387.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 519.79
- MXAP little changed at 178.98
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 559.05
- Nikkei down 0.7% to 38,876.71
- Topix down 0.7% to 2,756.44
- Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,937.84
- Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 3,037.47
- Sensex up 0.4% to 76,762.03
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 7,715.51
- Kospi up 0.8% to 2,728.17
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.61%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0752
- Brent Futures up 0.8% to $82.61/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,312.95
- US Dollar Index little changed at 105.19
Top Overnight News
- China’s May inflation is essentially inline (but still soft), with the CPI +0.3% (vs. +0.3% in Apr and vs. the Street +0.4%) and the PPI -1.4% (vs. -2.5% in Apr and vs. the Street -1.5%). RTRS
- Brussels will impose tariffs of up to almost 50 per cent on Chinese electric vehicles, brushing aside German government warnings that the move risks starting a costly trade war with Beijing. The European Commission notified carmakers on Wednesday that it will provisionally apply additional duties of between 17 and 38 per cent on imported Chinese EVs from next month. FT
- The US Treasury is expected to roll out a big expansion of its secondary sanctions program on Russia this week, treating any foreign financial institution transacting with a sanctioned Russian entity as though it is working directly with the Kremlin’s military-industrial base. FT
- The world faces a “staggering” surplus of oil equating to millions of barrels a day by the end of the decade, as oil companies increase production, undermining the ability of Opec+ to manage crude prices, the International Energy Agency has warned. FT
- Israel/Hezbollah tensions spike after an Israeli strike killed the most senior Hezbollah commander since the start of the war in Gaza (Hezbollah fired a barrage of rockets toward Israel in response). Jerusalem Post
- Emmanuel Macron said he won’t resign if his party suffers a poor result in snap French parliamentary elections, saying that’s absurd. “I will kill this idea, which never actually existed.” The French president said he’ll appoint a PM as the constitution demands but that doesn’t mean handing control to the far right. BBG
- Today’s Fed meeting looks set to be one of the year’s most pivotal with Jerome Powell potentially offering his clearest hints yet to the rate path. Bloomberg Economics expects the new dot plot will probably indicate two 25-bp cuts this year, compared with three previously. BBG
- US crude inventories resumed their downward trajectory, led by a 1.9 million barrel decline at Cushing, API data is said to show. That would be the biggest drop in more than four months if confirmed by the EIA today. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the mixed handover from US peers as markets braced for the incoming US CPI data and the FOMC announcement. ASX 200 was pressured amid weakness in mining, tech, and the defensive sectors. Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 39,000 level as participants digested firmer-than-expected PPI data which rose at the fastest annual pace in 9 months. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with underperformance in Hong Kong as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle shares dropped around 20% amid the threat of losing key assets after local administrative bodies demanded repayment of CNY 1.9bln in subsidies by its units. Meanwhile, the mainland was cautious amid frictions with the US and after mixed Chinese inflation data including softer-than-expected CPI and a narrower deflation in factory gate prices.
Top Asian news
- US President Biden’s administration is to widen sanctions on Wednesday on the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods to Russia, according to Reuters sources. US will change export controls to include US-branded goods and not just those made in the US, while the measures are aimed at targeting third-party sellers in China and Hong Kong that are supplying Russia.
- China reportedly weighs a ban on bank distribution of hedge fund products, according to Bloomberg.
- Chinese Foreign Ministry says EU tariffs on Chinese EVs violate market economy principles and international trade rules; China will take all measures to firmly defend interests.
- EU intends to impose provisional tariffs on Chinese EV’s of 21% for cooperating companies, 38.1% for those which have not
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) are entirely in the green, attempting to trim some of this week’s significant losses, sparked by political uncertainty in Europe. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with Banks taking the top spot as the sector finds its footing after this week’s weakness. Autos is the clear laggard, after news that the European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are trading on either side of the unchanged mark with price action tentative ahead of today’s key risk events, which includes US CPI and the FOMC Policy announcement.
Top European News
- ECB’s Kazaks sees hopes of further rate cuts this year. Need to be convinced that inflation will not return.
- ECB’s Villeroy says inflation will be below 2% in France starting next year, even at 1.7%.
- ECB Schnabel says the economy is recovering gradually, last mile of disinflation is proving bumpy; first indications of easing wage growth.
- UBS expects BoE to start cutting interest rates in August (prev. forecast June)
- French President Macron says they have not been able to form lasting coalitions. EU vote clear, could not be ignored.
FX
- USD is flat and in a narrow range as participants await the double dose of US risk events in the form of CPI and the FOMC; DXY resides within 105.21-32 parameters, well within yesterday’s 105.09-46 range.
- EUR price action has been uneventful thus far awaiting today’s key risk events; EUR/USD in a 1.0733-47 range thus far.
- GBP has also been trading sideways finding intraday resistance at 1.2750 (vs low 1.2729) with little immediate move seen in the wake of in-line GDP which ultimately resulted in little change in BoE pricing.
- JPY is very modestly softer irrespective of the overnight risk aversion and firmer-than-expected PPI data; USD/JPY currently trading within a 157.03-37 range.
- Antipodeans are both modestly firmer facilitated by an attempted recovery in base metals, but with gains capped as the risk tone remains cautious ahead of the aforementioned risk events.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1133 vs exp. 7.2558 (prev. 7.1135).
Fixed Income
- USTs are flat ahead of US CPI for one final read into the FOMC meeting where market pricing currently has a 99% chance of an unchanged rate. Currently holding near a fresh WTD high at 109-20, sparked by Tuesday’s strong US auction.
- Bunds are firmer with initial impetus stemming from Tuesday’s strong US auction and perhaps some marginal follow through from UK GDP numbers. Bunds are within a 130.21-130.50 bound, and have edged down towards the mid-point of the range after a poorly received Bund auction.
- Gilts are firmer, in tandem with broader strength in EGBs/USTs; amidst this, the morning’s UK GDP metrics were broadly in-line but the internals around Construction/Manufacturing were soft and sparked a very modest dovish move to BoE pricing.
- Germany sells EUR 3.3bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.20% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.8x), average yield 2.6% (prev. 2.53%) & retention 16.75% (prev. 17.9%).
- UK sells GBP 900mln 0.625% I/L Gilt 2045: b/c 3.88x real yield 1.304%
Commodities
- Crude is firmer and at session highs, continuing to build on yesterday’s bullish private inventory data which saw a larger than expected draw in crude and gasoline. Additionally, geopolitical updates out of Israel/Hezbollah point towards recent escalations within the region. Brent Aug currently around USD 82.85/bbl.
- Precious metals are flat/mixed as traders look ahead to the US CPI and FOMC; XAU sits in a USD 2,310.60-2,317.70/oz range.
- Base metals are attempting a recovery from the recent slide in prices induced by Fed expectations following Friday’s NFP data. Chinese inflation did little to sway prices as trades await upcoming US macro events.
- IEA Oil Market Report: lowers 2024 demand growth forecast by 100k BPD to 960k BPD; 2025 oil demand growth seen at 1mln BPD amid a muted economy and clean energy tech deployment; major oil surplus seen this decade as demand peaks.
- UBS says on Gold “we have raised our 2024 avg. forecast and year-end target by 8% to USD 2365 and USD 2600 respectively”
- US Private Inventory Report (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.05mln), Cushing -1.9mln, Distillate +1mln (exp. +1.6mln), Gasoline -2.5mln (exp. +0.9mln).
- Azerbaijan oil production was 62.1k/T day in May.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Rocket sirens are reportedly sounding over several towns in Northern Israel, according to Horowitz on X; Israeli media says “Heavy bombardment from Lebanon towards northern Israel, and sirens activated in Tiberias, Safed, and Galilee” via Sky News Arabia.
- IDF Radio reports “More than 100 rockets fired from the south Lebanon on Safed, Tiberias and their surroundings in a few minutes”.
- Hamas official said their response to the Gaza ceasefire deal is responsible, serious, and positive, while the official added the response opens a wide way to reach an agreement.
- Israeli official said Hamas has rejected the proposal for a hostage release presented by US President Biden, while the official added that Israel received the Hamas response via mediators and that Hamas changed the proposal’s main parameters.
- Israeli airstrike on south Lebanon killed four people including a senior Hezbollah field commander, according to three security sources cited by Reuters. It was later noted that the Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday was the most senior member killed in the last 8 months.
- US Pentagon said Secretary of Defense Austin discussed with his Israeli counterpart by phone efforts to calm tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Rocket sirens are reportedly sounding over several towns in Northern Israel, according to Horowitz on X; Israeli media says “Heavy bombardment from Lebanon towards northern Israel, and sirens activated in Tiberias, Safed, and Galilee” via Sky News Arabia; IDF Radio reports “More than 100 rockets fired from the south Lebanon on Safed, Tiberias and their surroundings in a few minutes”.
Geopolitics: Other
- EU is proposing to sanction Russian oil-shipping giant Sovcomflot, according to Bloomberg.
- EU is pushing ahead with Chinese electric vehicle tariffs that are set to bring in more than EUR 2bln a year, despite opposition from Germany, according to FT. European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. Note, it was reported that yesterday Chinese Auto Industry Association CPCA said the EU could impose a 20% tariff on Chinese EVs, which is an understandable trade practice.
- Japan mulls sanctioning groups including Chinese firms for aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to NHK.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications +15.6%, prior -5.2%
- 08:30: May CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.3%
- May CPI YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
- May CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- May CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.5%, prior 3.6%
- May Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.5%
- May Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.5%, revised 0.6%
- 14:00: June FOMC Rate Decision
- 14:00: May Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$276.5b, prior -$240.3b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Forgive me for feeling a touch melancholy this morning as I type this at 5am as a 50 year old. I’ll be celebrating by giving the opening speech this morning at DB’s 28th annual European LevFin conference featuring over 1000 investors and issuers. See you there if you’re attending. The highlights from my 40s were 3 kids I didn’t know if I’d ever have, 4 costly renovation projects, 6 knee surgeries, several inner ear surgeries, one back surgery and several trapped nerves. On the plus side of my mid-life crisis, my golf handicap has gone from 6 to 1.9 in my 40s which partly explains some of the ailments above. Let’s hope by the time I’m 60 I’ll have a few AI generated artificial limbs to help me hit the golf ball further.
It’s been another challenging 24 hours for European markets, with risk assets hacking out of the rough thanks to the ongoing political uncertainty in Europe. Meanwhile in a different universe, the S&P 500 (+0.27%) sailed down the middle of the fairway and hit a fresh all time with Apple (+7.26%) having its best day since November 2022 and returning above $3tn market cap and to an all time high itself after a difficult first 3-4 months of the year.
In terms of the European market moves, it was another difficult day for French assets. For instance, the 10yr Franco-German spread widened by another +5.0bps to 60bps, and the CAC 40 (-1.33%) fell to its lowest level in almost four months. Banks were among the worst affected again, with fresh losses for Société Générale (-5.02%), Crédit Agricole (-3.90%) and BNP Paribas (-3.89%). The three banks are now down -12.11%, -7.34% and -8.47% respectively since Monday’s open. At the height of the selloff yesterday, there were even unconfirmed press reports (later denied) that President Macron could resign after the election, before yields came off from their highs later on in the session.
President Macron is set to speak at a press conference today, but in the meantime, there have been growing questions about the political landscape his centrist alliance will be facing at the elections. On the left, an alliance was formed on Monday night between the Greens, Socialists, Communists and La France Insoumise. But on the right of the political spectrum there’s still uncertainty, as Éric Ciotti, who leads Les Républicains party, called for an alliance with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National. Other figures in the party sternly rejected those suggestions, but the historic divisions between the traditional right-wing parties and the RN are becoming increasingly blurred as the latter has come to dominate the right-wing of the political spectrum in France . Later in the day, we heard that talks on forming an alliance between RN and the smaller far-right Reconquest party had broken down. In terms of the latest polls, an Ifop survey out yesterday had Marine Le Pen’s party on 35%, an alliance of four left-wing parties on 25%, and Macron’s alliance on 18%.
This political uncertainty weighed on markets across the continent. That included a third day of losses for the STOXX 600 (-0.93%), with the Stoxx banks index (-2.66%) seeing its largest decline since August. Equities slumped in several countries, with particularly sharp declines in southern Europe, including Italy’s FTSE MIB (-1.93%) and Spain’s IBEX (-1.60%). Sovereign bonds mostly rallied given the risk-off tone, and yields on 10yr bunds came down -4.8bps. But there was still a clear widening in spreads, with 10yr French yields (+0.2bps) just closing at their highest level of 2024 so far. Italian yields (-0.1bps) were also broadly flat despite the core rates rally.
This included 10yr US yields being down -6.3bps to 4.405%. US yields had been trading modestly lower on the day in the risk-off environment emanating from Europe but then saw a sizeable rally after a strong 10yr Treasury auction. This saw the highest bid-to-cover ratio in over two years and the lowest primary dealer take up since August, with $39bn of bonds issued 2bps below the pre-sale yield.
The next test / opportunity for Treasuries will come with today’s epic double bill with the US CPI release for May, as well as the Fed’s latest decision. In terms of the Fed, they’re widely expected to leaves rates unchanged today, so the focus is likely to be on the latest dot plot, as well as the new economic projections. Last time, the dot plot still pencilled in three cuts this year, but only just, and it would have only taken one dot to shift for the median to be at two cuts. Since then, the inflation figures have remained higher than the Fed would ideally like, and our US economists expect the median dot to only show two cuts now, and they also see the core PCE forecast for this year being upgraded by two-tenths to +2.8%. Looking forward, they also see the 2025 dot being revised up by 25bps, so that would signal a shallower pace of cuts. See here for their full preview.
Of course, the signals from the meeting could be influenced by the CPI release earlier in the day, as a surprise in either direction could lead to shifts in their inflation projections. In terms of what to expect, our US economists expect headline CPI to come in at +0.12%, and core CPI to come in at +0.27%. If those are realised, then that would mean the year-on-year headline CPI comes in at +3.4%, while core falls to +3.5%. Click here for their full CPI preview and how to sign up for the subsequent webinar.
Ahead of this US markets were largely unphased by the developments in Europe, with the S&P 500 (+0.27%) posting another record high. One sector affected by contagion from Europe were banks as the S&P 500 banks index fell -2.15%. Tech stocks outperformed, with the NASDAQ up +0.88% and the Magnificent 7 up +1.00%. The latter came mostly as Apple (+7.26%) posted its best day since November 2022 to climb to a new all-time high. Less than two months ago Apple was down -16.7% from its last all time high back in December so a decent bounce back. Monday initially saw a dip after the OpenAI partnership was a “sell the fact” moment but the reaction turned much more positive yesterday.
Asian equity markets are mostly declining this morning with China’s soft consumer prices data weighing on proceedings. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (-1.43%) is the worst performer among Asian indices on news that the US is considering further trade sanctions on China’s access to AI chip technology. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (-0.63%), CSI (-0.18%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) are also trading marginally lower. The KOSPI (+0.38%) is managing to buck the trend though. US equity futures are flat along with US treasuries.
Coming back to China, CPI disappointed as it rose +0.3% y/y in May, weaker than market expectations for a rise of +0.4%. PPI contracted -1.4% y/y in May (v/s -1.5% expected), marking its smallest contraction since February 2023 and up from last month’s -2.5% decline. It has been negative for 20 months now though. Elsewhere, Japan’s PPI rose +2.4% y/y in May (v/s +2.0% expected) as against prior month’s upwardly revised increase of +1.1%.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, the UK unemployment rate rose to 4.4% (vs. 4.3% expected) over the three months to April, which is its highest level in two-and-a-half years. Separately in the UK, there’s just over three weeks until the election on July 4, and a YouGov poll showed the right-wing Reform UK party on 17%, just one point behind the governing Conservatives on 18%. Labour are still clearly ahead on 38%, but that’s the closest gap between the Conservatives and Reform in a poll so far.
To the day ahead now, and the main highlights will be the US CPI release, along with the Federal Reserve’s decision and Chair Powell’s press conference. Otherwise in Europe, we’ll get the UK GDP release for April, and central bank speakers will include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Vujcic, Nagel and Villeroy.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Softer than expected Chinese CPI into US CPI & the FOMC – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 01:26 AM
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the mixed handover from US peers as markets braced for the incoming US CPI data and the FOMC announcement.
- Chinese inflation data saw softer-than-expected CPI and a narrower deflation in factory gate prices but with little follow-through to markets.
- Israel said it received the Hamas response to the ceasefire proposal via mediators and that Hamas changed the proposal’s main parameters.
- Fitch Ratings said France’s snap election heightens fiscal and reform uncertainty but there are no immediate implications for France’s AA-/Stable rating.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed down 1.0% on Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German HICP (F), UK GDP Estimate, US CPI, Fed Policy Announcement, IEA OMR Comments from ECB’s Schnabel & de Guindos, Fed Chair Powell & BoC Governor Macklem, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Broadcom.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mixed on the eve of the FOMC and US CPI release with outperformance in the Nasdaq amid firm gains in Apple (AAPL) (+7%) after an upgrade from DA Davidson in the wake of the WWDC event on Monday. Meanwhile, the morning weakness surrounding French election uncertainty had unwound once Europe had left for the day and a slump in UST yields following a stellar 10-year auction stateside underpinned US indices to session highs.
- SPX +0.27% at 5,375, NDX +0.71% at 19,210, DJI -0.31% at 38,747, RUT -0.36% at 2,024.
- Click for a detailed summary.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the mixed handover from US peers as markets braced for the incoming US CPI data and the FOMC announcement.
- ASX 200 was pressured amid weakness in mining, tech, and the defensive sectors.
- Nikkei 225 retreated beneath the 39,000 level as participants digested firmer-than-expected PPI data which rose at the fastest annual pace in 9 months.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with underperformance in Hong Kong as China Evergrande New Energy Vehicle shares dropped around 20% amid the threat of losing key assets after local administrative bodies demanded repayment of CNY 1.9bln in subsidies by its units. Meanwhile, the mainland was cautious amid frictions with the US and after mixed Chinese inflation data including softer-than-expected CPI and a narrower deflation in factory gate prices.
- US equity futures traded sideways with a lack of conviction ahead of the major risk events.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market closed down 1.0% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY remained above the 105.00 level and lacked commitment as participants awaited US CPI data and the FOMC announcement, while WSJ’s Timiraos noted the May CPI release could move one or two rate projections in the SEP and that the line between a median of 1 or 2 cuts seems like a toss-up.
- EUR/USD languished firmly beneath 1.0800 amid the ongoing political uncertainty, while a recent slew of ECB speakers did little to spur the currency including Chief Economist Lane who noted a high level of uncertainty and that still-elevated price pressures were evident in the indicators for domestic inflation.
- GBP/USD lacked direction after yesterday’s choppy performance with Industrial, Manufacturing, and Construction Output data scheduled for today alongside monthly GDP estimates.
- USD/JPY traded sideways just above the 157.00 level and largely ignored the risk aversion and firmer-than-expected PPI data.
- Antipodeans were rangebound in the absence of tier-1 releases from both sides of the Tasman and with currencies also unmoved by the mixed Chinese inflation data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1133 vs exp. 7.2558 (prev. 7.1135).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures were little changed overnight ahead of today’s double bonanza of macro risk events in the US and after prices found some reprieve on Tuesday from a stellar 10-year auction.
- Bund futures sat near yesterday’s best levels after rallying back above 130.00 but with further upside restricted ahead of German supply.
- 10-year JGB futures tracked the gains in global peers with the BoJ present in the market for JPY 1.3tln of JGBs.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were mildly underpinned after bullish crude and gasoline private sector inventory data.
- US Private Inventory Report (bbls): Crude -2.4mln (exp. -1.05mln), Cushing -1.9mln, Distillate +1mln (exp. +1.6mln), Gasoline -2.5mln (exp. +0.9mln).
- EIA STEO raised its 2024 world oil demand growth forecast by 180k BPD and now sees a 1.1mln BPD Y/Y increase, while it raised the 2025 world oil demand growth view by 80k BPD and now sees 1.5mln BPD Y/Y increase.
- Spot gold was contained as markets braced for the incoming key risk events.
- Copper futures eked mild gains following yesterday’s intraday recovery but with advances limited amid the cautious risk tone and mixed Chinese inflation data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was little changed after recovering from an early dip beneath the USD 67,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US weighs more limits on China’s access to chips needed for AI, US officials are reportedly in early talks on high-bandwidth memory curbs, according to Bloomberg.
- US President Biden’s administration is to widen sanctions on Wednesday on the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods to Russia, according to Reuters sources. US will change export controls to include US-branded goods and not just those made in the US, while the measures are aimed at targeting third-party sellers in China and Hong Kong that are supplying Russia.
- China reportedly weighs a ban on bank distribution of hedge fund products, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (May) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Chinese CPI YY (May) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Chinese PPI YY (May) -1.4% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -2.5%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (May) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.5%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (May) 2.4% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 1.1%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad said they have submitted a response to the proposed Gaza ceasefire deal to Qatari and Egyptian mediators, according to a joint statement. Furthermore, the Hamas response contained amendments to the Israeli proposal such as a new timeline for a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal from Gaza including Rafah, according to a Reuters source.
- Hamas official said their response to the Gaza ceasefire deal is responsible, serious, and positive, while the official added the response opens a wide way to reach an agreement.
- Israeli official said Hamas has rejected the proposal for a hostage release presented by US President Biden, while the official added that Israel received the Hamas response via mediators and that Hamas changed the proposal’s main parameters.
- Israeli airstrike on south Lebanon killed four people including a senior Hezbollah field commander, according to three security sources cited by Reuters. It was later noted that the Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli airstrike on Tuesday was the most senior member killed in the last 8 months.
- US Pentagon said Secretary of Defense Austin discussed with his Israeli counterpart by phone efforts to calm tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border, according to Sky News Arabia.
OTHER
- EU is proposing to sanction Russian oil-shipping giant Sovcomflot, according to Bloomberg.
- EU is pushing ahead with Chinese electric vehicle tariffs that are set to bring in more than EUR 2bln a year, despite opposition from Germany, according to FT. European Commission will notify carmakers that it will provisionally impose additional duties of up to 25% on imported Chinese EVs from next month. Note, it was reported that yesterday Chinese Auto Industry Association CPCA said the EU could impose a 20% tariff on Chinese EVs, which is an understandable trade practice.
- Japan mulls sanctioning groups including Chinese firms for aiding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to NHK.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fitch Ratings said France’s snap election heightens fiscal and reform uncertainty, while it has increased uncertainty around policy settings but there are no immediate implications for France’s AA-/Stable rating.
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE
A must read. The folly of Europe lowering its key interest rate
(Dr Lacalle)
The ECB Policy Nightmare And Rate-Cut Mistake
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 06:30 AM
The ECB decided to cut rates by 25 basis points the same day it elevated its own inflation estimates for 2024 and 2025. You simply cannot make this up. If you wanted unmistakable proof of the lack of independence of central banks, this is it. The ECB only has one mandate, price stability, and has violated it for nearly four years.
Why?
The purpose is to fund the biggest expansion of the government’s size since the euro’s inception and uphold the delusion of a sovereign debt bubble.
We must remember that the ECB has not implemented a restrictive policy at all. It has kept the “anti-fragmentation tool,” which disguises the real risk of sovereign issuers and should be called the “anti-market tool.”
This has allowed governments that have increased their fiscal imbalances to keep an artificially low-risk premium versus the German bond. Furthermore, the ECB continues to repurchase part of the bond maturities and the EU launched the Next Generation Fund, which is another massive money-printing exercise.
The ECB has only used rate increases as a real restrictive tool. Due to higher financing costs, families and small businesses have had to bear the full negative impact of the ECB policy. Meanwhile, governments have not limited their money printing through deficit spending, nor have they simply consolidated the extraordinary expenditures of 2020. In some cases, they have even increased spending beyond that “unique” figure.
Inflation is neither a coincidence nor a fatality. It’s a policy, because the government is the biggest beneficiary of the steady rise in aggregate prices.
It is worth remembering that the consumer price index (CPI) is not “inflation”; it is a measure of inflation. Inflation is the loss of the purchasing power of a currency.
CPI inflation in the eurozone rose to 2.6% in May, according to Eurostat. In fact, all measures rose from the April level, particularly services, which are rising at a 4% annual rate. Furthermore, eight countries in the euro area reported annual CPI inflation rates of more than 3%. This means that the accumulated level of inflation from 2020 will be more than 23%. Despite the previously mentioned evidence and the upward revision of its own estimates of inflation, the ECB decided to cut rates.
The government and its group of propagandists are attempting to persuade you that everything, with the exception of massively issuing more currency than the private sector’s demand, is the cause of price increases. However, the only thing that can cause aggregate prices to rise, consolidate that increase, and continue to go up, even if at a slower rate, is the destruction of the purchasing power of the currency that states issue by issuing much more than the private sector demands.
The most extreme interventionism asserts that inflation indicates a production deficit rather than a rise in currency quantity. It is a falsehood of such magnitude that it should not even be debated. The state generates a huge amount of money, and even if production increases, it cannot prevent everything we import, from components to raw materials, from costing us much more in local currency. No. A widespread increase in output does not eliminate inflation if the state continues to consume new currency units to artificially increase its weight on the economy.
Why are there supporters of inflationism? This is the most effective method for the government to exert its influence on the economy and seize the resources generated by the productive sector, all while using a currency that is increasingly depreciated.
Inflation is the equivalent of an implicit default on debt. The state issues a pledge of payment and returns it with a decreasing value.
There was no data on the May inflation release to justify a rate cut.
First, the latest monetary aggregate note from the ECB indicates a significant increase in the amount of money in the system. Moreover, the calculation of the total amount according to the Murray Rothbard method (True Money Supply), which includes monetary funds in financial aggregates, shows that the quantity of money has not decreased at all since September 2023 and will likely increase significantly in 2024.
The annual growth rate of the eurozone’s broad monetary aggregate, M3, rose to 1.3% in April 2024 from 0.9% in March. If we calculate the true money supply, the figure would be +4.5% in April 2024, consistent with an inflation rate of 2.6% and a cumulative of 23% since 2020.
Second, lowering interest rates is an incentive to continue increasing state imbalances in countries that have refused to control their deficits and, above all, have taken advantage of inflation to collect more taxes.
Third, a cut in interest rates is an incentive to increase the total amount of money in the system and the rate of increase on the monetary base.
Fourth, the eurozone’s problems are not caused by interest rate hikes. The eurozone was already stagnant with negative nominal interest rates, was in the middle of the Juncker Plan and is still stagnating amid the Next Generation EU Fund.
Fifth, it makes no sense to cut rates when the credit supply has not decreased (in fact, it is rising) and the credit demand remains stable. In April, the year-on-year growth rate of loans to households rose by +0.2%. Credit to non-financial corporations rose by 3%, according to the ECB.
The first impact of the ECB rate cut was a swift slump in the euro-US dollar exchange rate, which will make citizens poorer and imports more expensive.
The eurozone economy is not in stagnation due to rate hikes. It is in stagnation due to the wrong fiscal, industrial, and energy policies.
What reason is there for cutting rates?
Just one.
Cheaper funding for fiscally irresponsible states. The state promises you free things and charges you more with less purchasing power, higher taxes, and impoverishment. There is no such thing as what they call inclusive monetary and fiscal policy. It is the recipe for stagnation.
end
FINLAND/UKRAINE//RUSSIA
Not very smart of Finland
(zerohedge)
Finland In First NATO Deployment Parks Jets On Russia’s Doorstep
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 01:00 PM
NATO’s two newest members – Finland and Sweden – have already seen their militaries quite busy as part of recent joint exercises with the alliance. For the first time this week, another milestone has been achieved as Finland has deployed fighter jets to another NATO country, in a further reversal of the Scandinavian country’s decades-long policy of neutrality.
Seven F-18 fighter jets have been deployed by Helsinki to a base in southeastern Romania. Reuters said based on military statements that the aircraft will “conduct air shielding missions with Romanian and British jets.” Romania has long been dubbed in Western publications as “Russia’s doorstep”.
Finland is hailing this as part of efforts to speed up its military integration within NATO. “I’m sure that during this enhanced air policing air shielding mission our integration into NATO will take a big leap forward,” commander of Finland’s Karelia Air Wing Johan Anttila said this week.
Finland’s entry into the Western military alliance has in effect doubled the border now directly shared by Russia and NATO countries.
“This will certainly lead to tension. We can only regret this,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had earlier commented. “We had excellent relations with Finland. No one threatened anyone, there were no problems or complaints against each other. No one infringed on anyone’s interests, there was mutual respect.”
And President Putin has previously derided Finland’s entry into NATO as all about joining “the Western club.”
“Frankly speaking, I don’t understand why they need this. This is an absolutely meaningless step from the point of view of ensuring their own national interests,” Putin said back in March.
“We didn’t even have troops; we removed all the troops from there, from the Russian-Finnish border,” he said. “However, it is up to them to decide. That’s what they decided. But we didn’t have troops there, now we will.”
Meanwhile Denmark too is among those Nordic countries calling for increased defense spending and greater coordination on European defense. This has been a persistent talking point over the last months as Ukraine forces are not fairing well on the battlefield, and as Washington funds have dried up.
5. RUSSIA AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS.
ISRAEL HAMAS/RAFAH
ISRAEL HAMAS
this deal will never happen
(Jerusalem Post)
Hamas demands a full Israeli withdrawal from the Rafah crossing, no permanent ceasefire
Hamas clarified that they would not accept any deal that did not include a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
By YUVAL BARNEAJUNE 12, 2024 00:16Updated: JUNE 12, 2024 02:25
In Hamas’s response to the Israeli outline for the hostage deal, they demanded, among other things, a full Israeli withdrawal from the Rafah crossing and the Philadelphi Corridor, according to Al Jazeera.
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad told Al Jazeera that they were ready to “deal positively to arrive at an agreement,” and their main goal was to stop Israeli operations in Gaza.
Ministry of Foreign Affairs – Qatar
Qatar and Egypt Announce that they have Received a response from Hamas and the Palestinian Factions regarding the Truce Proposal #MOFAQatar
·
103.7K Views
Izzat al-Rishq, a member of Hamas’ political bureau, told Reuters that Hamas’s response to the deal “opens up a wide pathway” to reach an agreement.
Egypt and Qatar also confirmed they were examining the deal and would continue to facilitate mediation between Israel and Hamas until an agreement is reached and that they will continue to work with the United States to achieve a ceasefire deal.
No permanent ceasefire
Senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan told Hezbollah-aligned channel Al Mayadeen that they had amended the ceasefire proposal to specify that it would not be permanent, in contravention of President Biden’s proposal.
They clarified that they would not accept any deal that did not include a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
Hamas also told Al Mayadeen that they considered disagreements between Israel and the US over the ceasefire proposal as “only tactical.”
The US had expected Hamas to accept the deal without much resistance, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that the proposal was nearly identical to the one proposed on May 6 by Hamas itself.
Hannah Sarisohn contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah tries to shoot down Israeli fighter jet with anti aircraft missiles. This is the first time that Hezbollah fired these missiles. Probably Israel will enter Lebanon
(zerohedge)
Hezbollah Tries To Down Israeli Fighter Jets With Anti-Aircraft Missiles In First
TUESDAY, JUN 11, 2024 – 06:00 PM
There’s been another alarming “first” in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict which has been raging since Oct.7 in parallel with the Gaza war involving Hamas. Israeli media has revealed that a cell of Hezbollah operatives attempted to down an Israeli fighter jet operating over the region.
On Sunday the Israeli jet was flying over southern Lebanon when the group launched anti-aircraft missiles at it. The jet escaped unscathed but the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed the incident as a significant development for which it immediately retaliated.
Times of Israel writes, citing an IDF statement, that “it appeared to be the first use of anti-aircraft missiles in Lebanon against Israeli jets since war broke out eight months ago, and came after several weeks that have seen Hezbollah slowly ratchet up the scale, intensity and reach of hostilities.”
The IDF indicated that soon on the heels of the anti-aircraft missile attack, a military drone “struck and killed the cell” located not far from the coastal city of Tyre.
While this appears the first attempt by Hezbollah to take out a piloted warplane, the Lebanese paramilitary group backed by Iran has continued having some success against advanced Israeli drones. Long War Journal observes that:
Hezbollah is also increasing its use of surface-to-air missiles. On June 10, the group downed an Israeli Hermes 900 drone. This is at least the third Hermes 900 that has been shot down. Another Hermes 900 was downed on June 1. A Hermes 450 was shot down in April and another in February. Hezbollah appears to be having increased success against large- and medium-sized Israeli drones.
Many of these Hermes drone downings having been captured on video, and subsequently celebrated by Hezbollah and its supporters…
Image shows moment when Hezbollah’s SAM successfully intercepted an israeli drone. Some reports suggest it’s yet another Hermes-900 drone.
0:01
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93K Views
Given Hezbollah is a non-state actor and a paramilitary group, all of this demonstrates the relative sophistication of its weaponry and operations.
Regional observers have widely pointed out it has doubled its use of drones and anti-tank missiles in the last weeks, and should an Israeli Air Force plane be shot out of the sky, it would portend major escalation at a moment Tel Aviv is already mulling whether to launch an invasion of south Lebanon to root out Hezbollah.
As for Israel, it has been hitting back at targets deeper and deeper inside Lebanon. Overnight Monday-Tuesday the IDF struck a site in the distant Baalbek region, which is known to host Hezbollah bases and command units. Israeli jets have also continued to strike ‘Iranian assets’ inside Syria as well, often using Lebanese airspace to avoid Syrian anti-air defenses.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Senior Hezbollah commander eliminated in alleged Israeli airstrike
The anonymous sources said the commander’s role in Hezbollah was as significant as that of Wissam Tawil, a senior Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli strike in January.
By REUTERSJUNE 12, 2024 00:06Updated: JUNE 12, 2024 01:11
An alleged Israeli strike on the village of Jouya in southern Lebanon late Tuesday killed at least four people, including a senior field commander in the Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, three security sources told Reuters.
He was identified by the sources as the group’s commander for the central region of the southern border strip, comprising some of the towns hardest hit in the last eight months of exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military.
A Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli strike late on Tuesday on the southern Lebanon town of Joya was the most senior member of the group to be killed in eight months of hostilities with Israel, a security source told Reuters.
Hezbollah identified the killed commander by his rank in a statement, naming him as Taleb Abdallah.
Who was the Hezbollah official killed?
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the commander’s role in Hezbollah was as significant as that of Wissam Tawil, a senior Hezbollah commander killed in an Israeli strike in January.
Some 300 Hezbollah fighters, including commanders and operatives with key responsibilities, have been killed in Israeli strikes on Lebanon since October, when the Gaza war broke out.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
Suicide Drone Boat Hits Bulk Carrier Near Yemen
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 11:00 AM
Yemen’s Houthi movement might have expanded its weapon arsenal by attacking a bulk carrier in the Red Sea with a suicide drone boat (the first time in this conflict). This marks a shift from the terror group’s usual anti-ship ballistic missiles and or kamikaze aerial drones.
On X, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said, “The vessel was hit on the stern by a small craft” about 66 nautical miles southwest of Al Hudaydah, Yemen.
Bloomberg said the commodity-hauling bulk carrier is called “Tutor.” Ship tracking data shows the vessel switched off its Automatic Identification System late last week after entering the Suez Canal.
Maritime security company Diaplous said a suicide drone boat hit Tutor, adding the vessel’s engine compartment was taking on water.
There is no confirmation if Houthi rebels carried out the attack. However, the terror group has been on a half-year rampage across major shipping lanes in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, attacking Western-linked vessels with missiles and drones.
According to an International Maritime Organization document obtained by the Middle East Eye, Houthi rebels have attacked 28 bulk carriers, tankers, container ships, cargo ships, and crude oil tankers.
Nine of the vessels were Marshall Island-flagged and three were US-flagged. Others were from Malta, Barbados, Panama, Belize, Greece, Palau, Liberia, Singapore, and Portugal.
On Monday, new images published on social media showed missile attack damage to the previously owned US bulk carrier “True Confidence” from March 6.
These attacks have snarled global supply chains and sent containerized shipping costs soaring in recent months.
Next up is US CENTCOM responding to the incident. They usually do not comment on the specific weapons used and often say “projectile.” This report of the attack should be out this evening or tomorrow morning.
Furthermore, this won’t be the last time Houthi rebels use suicide boats against commercial vessels linked to the West in the Red Sea and or the Gulf of Aden. The group has also warned about expanding its threat coverage into the Mediterranian Sea.
END
ISRAEL
RUSSIA UKRAINE/USA
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
This is very dangerous. Russia may attack the country that stored the F 16’s
(zerohedge)
Kiev’s Plan To Store F-16s In NATO States Raises The Risk Of World War III
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Ukrainian Air Force head of aviation Sergey Golubtsov told US state-run Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty in an interview over the weekend that Kiev plans to store some of its F-16s in NATO states for reserve and training purposes. While this might sound like a pragmatic policy, particularly since it would deter Russia from destroying its entire fleet since President Putin recently mocked speculation about him plotting to attack NATO as “bullshit”, it actually raises the risk of World War III.
To explain, although US Air Force chief Frank Kendell claimed last summer that the F-16s are “not going to be a game-changer” for Ukraine and Golubtsov himself confirmed in his latest interview that they’re “not a panacea and we do not wear rose-colored glasses”, both downplay the nuclear dimension. President Putin brought it up earlier this spring when he noted that “F-16 aircraft can also carry nuclear weapons, and we will also have to heed this while organising our combat operations.”
The Russian leader also warned that “we would see them as legitimate targets if they operate from the airfields of third countries, no matter where they are located.” Mutual mistrust between Russia and the US is at a record high and continues rising by the week, made all the worse by Ukraine’s recent attack(s) against Russia’s early nuclear warning systems that might have been tacitly approved by America. This comes as the US is playing a dangerous game of nuclear chicken with Russia.
It’s with all this in mind that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said last month that “We cannot help but consider the supply of these (F-16) systems to the Kiev regime as a deliberate signaling action by NATO in the nuclear sphere.” He added though that his country’s recent tactical nuclear weapons exercises might “bring some sense” to NATO and deter them from crossing the ultimate red line. Judging by what Golubtsov just said, however, the US wants to up the ante in its game of nuclear chicken.
What’s meant is that Russia can’t know whether any attacking F-16 are nuclear-equipped, especially if one of them from Ukraine’s “reserve” based in NATO states takes off from there and carries out a mission without first stopping at a Kiev-controlled airfield. From the Kremlin’s viewpoint, it could appear that a nuclear-equipped and NATO-piloted F-16 is preparing to carry out a first strike. In response, Russia might preemptively destroy the base from which it departed, with or without a tactical nuke.
The New York Times already cited an unknown number of Biden’s unnamed advisors to report that the US and Ukraine’s priorities are diverging, warning that “Ukraine has nothing left to lose from escalating with Russia” while “Mr. Biden does”. It therefore can’t be ruled out that Zelensky might task one of his pilots with carrying out a mission directly from NATO territory without first stopping at a Kiev-controlled airfield in order to provoke Russia into striking the base from which it departed in self-defense.
Seeing as how Denmark approved of Ukraine using their donated F-16s to strike inside of Russia’s universally recognized territory, which followed its NATO peers approving of Ukraine using other arms to do the same, this is a frighteningly real scenario that the US might be powerless to stop. The only way to prevent it is for the US to force its partners not to allow Ukraine to store its F-16s on their territory, but Biden likely doesn’t have the political will since he fears accusations that he’s afraid of President Putin.
The West’s most ideologically radicalized anti-Russian hawks and their media proxies could also claim that coercing Ukraine to store all of its F-16s inside the country runs the risk of Russia destroying them and therefore making a total waste of NATO’s months-long preparations for this latest escalation. This could be seized upon by his political opponents at home ahead of November’s elections so it’s unlikely that he’d want to take the chance of turning more voters against him with this so-called “stupid policy”.
Of course, the knife also cuts both ways, and his opponents could also claim that the most “stupid policy” is actually him letting Ukraine store F-16s in NATO states since that raises the risk of World War III as was explained in this analysis. Seeing as how these the US and Ukraine’s leading Air Force officials don’t even consider these arms to be a “game-changer” or a “panacea” by their own respective admissions, they shouldn’t even be fielded in the first place due to this irresponsible risk.
Nevertheless, the F-16s will now inevitably be used after all the time and investment that went into training Ukrainian pilots, not to mention the media hype over all these months. The decision has already been made to store some of them in NATO states so it remains to be seen whether Zelensky is truly willing to risk it all by authorizing a mission for attacking Russia directly from one of those bases. He has the motive and opportunity, which is why it wouldn’t be surprising if he gave it a shot in desperation.
END
RUSSIA/USA
another escalation
(zerohedge)
US Prepares To Expand Secondary Sanctions On Russia
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 07:45 AM
More than two years into the war in Eastern Europe, it’s time to ask: What have Western sanctions against Russia actually accomplished?
Earlier this year, Russian President Vladimir Putin boasted about Russia’s economic resilience and ability to withstand international sanctions. The West’s attempts to cripple Moscow’s crude oil revenues and cut off its access to military technology are failing.
Putin recently remarked, “We have growth, and they have decline… They all have problems through the roof, not even comparable to our problems.”
Given the context above, the West is about to broaden the scope of secondary sanctions on Russia, as reported by the Financial Times. This move will target any financial institution transacting with sanctioned Russian entities, treating them as working directly with Moscow’s military-industrial base.
The measure will widen a White House executive order that in December gave the Treasury the authority to apply secondary sanctions on foreign financial institutions if they were found to have acted for, or on behalf of, any of about 1,200 entities deemed by the US government to be part of Russia’s defence sector.
After this week’s change, that number will rise to more than 4,500 and will encompass almost all Russian entities that have already been sanctioned, even if this was for reasons other than direct support of the war in Ukraine. They include banks such as Sberbank and VTB, the country’s largest lenders. -FT
“Secondary sanctions are intended to expand the US’s ability to pursue circumvention by actors who do not have any legal nexus with the US. It means the US can, in effect, enforce its sanctions on people who aren’t otherwise subject to US law,” said Emily Kilcrease, a trade and sanctions expert at the Center for a New American Security think-tank.
The US aims to disrupt trade flows between Chinese institutions and Russian firms by expanding the scope of secondary sanctions. The partnership between these two nations has grown closer since the invasion of Ukraine.
Kilcrease noted, “You could see this as strengthening the legal basis under which the US could apply sanctions to Chinese banks that have assisted the Russian war effort. The Treasury will hope they take notice. But at some point you may need to actually escalate and sanction one of them.”
Meanwhile, Russian commodities firms are ramping up their use of fiat-pegged digital currencies to execute cross-border transactions with Chinese counterparts. Conducting trade in stablecoins could be problematic in the West’s attempt to crush Moscow.
As explained weeks ago by US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell in a conversation with reporters:
“I think where we are primarily focused is on Chinese companies that have been involved in a systematic way in supporting Russia . . . we’ve also looked closely at financial institutions.”
In a separate report, Reuters says the US will announce “wider sanctions on the sale of semiconductor chips and other goods to Russia, with the goal of targeting third-party sellers in China.”
“We’re going to continue to drive up costs for the Russian war machine, and this week we will announce an impactful set of new sanctions and export control actions,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters Tuesday.
The move to broaden secondary sanctions on Russia while targeting Chinese firms comes as Group of Seven leaders plan to meet at a summit in Italy this week. One major topic to be discussed is new ways to increase aid to Ukraine and further contain Russia.
end
COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
Send This Article To People Who Say “Ivermectin Doesn’t Work For Covid-19”
TUESDAY, JUN 11, 2024 – 11:40 PM
Authored by David Gortler via the Brownstone Institute,
If you hear your pharmacist, physician, or academic dean parrot the malignant regurgitated trope of “Ivermectin doesn’t work for Covid” or that there is “no evidence” or “no data” to support ivermectin’s use in Covid-19, send them this meta-analysis summary and annotated bibliography of over 100 studies.
I never really latched on to the idea of social media, which is why I never signed up for it. In addition to pathological social factors, I think it is an especially absurd format for serious scientists to initiate a debate on the intricacies and complexities of medical research, clinical pharmacology, or patient care.
I did not have a Twitter/X account but very recently created one after I was contacted by colleagues alerting me to posts from Dr. Peter Hotez criticizing my recent testimony before the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic held by Dr. Brad Wenstrup (R-OH). Dr. Hotez is a pediatrician and tropical medicine Dean at Baylor in Houston, Texas. About six weeks later, Dr. Hotez responded to my testimony on Twitter/X:
“To the countries, physicians, & pharmacists who prescribed ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine…you were right.” – Dr. Gortler Never forget the so-called experts and shills who gaslit Americans about COVID treatments and the vaccine. https://twitter.com/Heritage/status/1770926556455575733/video/1…
1:57 / 5:16
I attempted to rebut Dr. Hotez’s statement by setting up a Twitter/X account only to find out that I couldn’t! Little did I know that the only way to comment on Dr. Hotez’s public Twitter/X page was to be granted permission by him to do so!! And here I thought the idea of Twitter was to foster discourse; not stifle it.
It certainly appears that dissenting scientific opinions are not welcome on Dr. Hotez’s Twitter/X page.
Dr. Hotez’s critique of my testimony was not an invitation to discuss the merits or shortcomings of ivermectin therapy; it was a figurative “drive-by shooting” stating that my sworn Congressional testimony was:
- “dangerous anti-science disinformation, pure and simple” and that
- “Ivermectin does nothing to help people with Covid” and
- “Ivermectin doesn’t work for Covid”
The second (in a list of around a dozen short, subsequent tweets by Dr. Hotez) was a pitch for his book.
Dr. Hotez then “upvoted” and reposted a note from one of his selected followers who appears to be a Twitter moderator of some sort. This individual had gleefully declared that my testimony had been “community-noted” adding that “Numerous valid scientific studies have shown that ivermectin is completely ineffective” (emphasis added) and “the promotion of Ivermectin for vaccine injury puts lives at risk.” The latter statement was a sleight of hand, as I had never opined on the use of ivermectin for “vaccine injury” at any time during my testimony or in any of my previous writings.
Twitter’s community notes are intended to give context to posts with debatable data, with this one, purporting to “debunk” my testimony, containing seven (7) reference links. Two of the links were duplicates, referring to the exact same data (numbers 1 and 3 and numbers 2 and 7). They referred to JAMA or NEJM studies which in turn have been criticized by academics as having very significant scientific and clinical practice shortcomings. Although the note additionally specified that “the promotion of ivermectin for ‘vaccine injury’ puts lives at risk,” none of those links determined that the use of ivermectin poses a safety “risk.” When prescribed correctly, ivermectin has not only been determined to be safe, but it has historically proven itself to be “astonishingly safe.”
The second-to-last “community note” link was a non-working link to an FDA website. It didn’t work because the FDA had agreed to delete it over a month earlier as part of a legal settlement for improperly denigrating ivermectin use. Didn’t the Twitter/X “community note” staffers bother to click on the links to make sure they worked before permitting them to be posted as references? Eventually, other individuals noticed the palpable shortcomings of the “community note” as well because it was quickly removed despite stating that it “Cites high-quality sources.”
A picture of the original “community note” with added arrows highlighting specific areas is shown below:
Of course, neither myself nor anyone else could contradict those claims because we were all blocked from posting by Dr. Hotez. It appears that he would rather make an incorrect assertion, then stick his fingers into his ears after he was finished saying what he had to, running away from any potential discussion, while his “approved” posters swarm to up-vote him – but all while potential counterarguments can’t be posted.
With no outside dissent allowed, does that mean Dr. Hotez “won” the debate?
It turns out my foray into Twitter was misguided and a waste of time. My Twitter/X account is now history. While it works great for a myriad of different matters, it is obviously an absurd place for a serious person to attempt to discuss or debate the intricacies of medical science or patient care. At this point, I have no intention of returning.
Ignoring and Censoring Data in History: Copernicus and Galileo
Consensus is very important to some, but unfortunately, it isn’t related to science. Science doesn’t care about consensus. In fact, many of the biggest scientific advancements were the result of questioning an established consensus. Generating a consensus for a new, controversial topic can be particularly dangerous. When people agree they tend to support each other, but a danger exists that they forget that they are reaffirming a potentially incorrect or polarized belief because their decision-making is biased and/or occurring in a vacuum.
In almost exclusively permitting harmonically positive feedback for himself, Dr. Hotez has failed to consider that it was artificially cultivated with essentially no meaningful dissent allowed to take place. In addition to being anti-free speech, it’s a terrible example for a scientist to set, particularly for someone in the position of a professor educating future scientists. The best scientists are the ones who are willing to listen to the opinions of other intellectuals and consider their arguments.
History shows us that ignoring scientific evidence and quashing dissent isn’t good for technical advancement; something that a professor who also labels himself a “science warrior” on his own homepage probably ought to already know.
A textbook example of “anti-science” was when Copernicus and Galileo tried to advance theories that the earth rotated around the sun (as opposed to the heliocentric narrative of the earth being the center of the universe, around which all celestial objects rotated). Copernicus and Galileo were ignored and their writings were banned. Both were tried by a panel of their peers, found guilty, removed from their didactic pulpits, arrested and imprisoned. Galileo was eventually permitted to live out his remaining years, exiled under “house arrest” away on a farm. But even then, at least both Copernicus and Galileo were given opportunities to argue and present their evidence…unlike Dr. Hotez’s blockaded Twitter account.
Medicine is Rarely “Black or White”
Despite decades of advancement, clinical science is seldom black or white. Only very rarely are there declarations “never” or “nothing” or “completely.” Still, Dr. Hotez routinely makes polarizing, binary black-or-white, right-or-wrong assertions from his “members-only” perch on Twitter/X, neglecting or ignoring data – and it’s not just for Covid treatments.
A great deal of medical and pharmacology research deals with levels of uncertainty, something which I regularly taught my students and hoped that most medical scientists already knew and understood. Declarations otherwise would be irresponsible emerging from any medical scientist, let alone one with Dr. Hotez’s credentials.
Dr. Hotez’s unambiguous declarations that: ivermectin is “completely ineffective” and ivermectin’s use represents “anti-science disinformation pure and simple” are simply not reflected in both the review of many clinical trials and larger statistical analyses of published literature. In fact, there is data that sharply and directly contradict Dr. Hotez’s statement that “Ivermectin does nothing to help people with Covid.”
It is my belief that the continued accumulation of positive findings for ivermectin will continue and show an even greater positive effect for Covid pre-exposure prophylaxis, early exposure, and early treatment modalities. Like a good scientist, I am open-minded and am willing to hear out intellectual, alternative thoughts from my detractors. That being said, I have a considerable amount of data backing up my opinion.
Response to Dr. Hotez’s Assertion: “Ivermectin Does Nothing to Help People with Covid”
Since I am not permitted to respond on Twitter/X, (in addition to the fact that it is not an appropriate platform to discuss the complex details of clinical trial data) I’m responding in the form of a review, analysis, and lengthy, annotated bibliography.
Academics should encourage the discussion of controversial topics. In composing an argument, one needs to present all available data – not exclusively preferred findings from selected “big name” domestic medical journals (which by the way are often heavily financed with expensive advertisements from Big Pharma) – but legitimate clinical and scientific data from all sources.
First, publications in “big name” journals like the NEJM and JAMA are not holy scripture beyond critique. Also, there is legitimate research being conducted in non-US countries and/or published in smaller journals worthy of consideration. On top of that, those who spend their lives in medical research will tell you that non-NEJM and non-JAMA, non-“big name” smaller, observational, and/or real-world study data are not only very worthy of consideration, but that those study designs and results can often be even more reflective of a drug’s utility and safety.
Cochrane’s Ivermectin Review is Incomplete
Cochrane’s March 2024 review of ivermectin has been cited as a source of data for ivermectin being ineffective. However, Cochrane only considered 11 Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) covering 3,409 participants. For ivermectin, there are 50 RCTs covering 17,243 participants which when analyzed in combination, show very strong evidence for efficacy in Covid-19. The fact that Cochrane selectively excluded a large amount of study data, while simultaneously including low-quality data with high conflict of interest and highly biased study designs, is more than a little perplexing. Of note, Cochrane also didn’t combine all of the evidence from the studies it did choose to include; data was split into very small sets by outcome and patient status, with no method used to combine all of the evidence from independent studies.
It seems to me that Cochrane isn’t what it used to be, and I for one am very disappointed.
Data Analysis
The proper application and weighting of data and its random effects meta-analysis across all studies can provide a complete picture of an effect. It includes all data, including too-low-dose, too-short-duration, less effective late- versus early-treatments, wrongly used fasting dosing (ivermectin is substantially better absorbed with high-fat foods [2.5x greater] according to the Merck package insert).
To date, there exists a list of 103 manuscripts written which studied ivermectin. Those data also include 15 medRxiv and/or preprint articles, (for journals that refuse to defy Big Pharma narratives and/or potentially those that the White House has ordered censoring) and all studies that showed ivermectin’s effectiveness with some certitude, but not at the level of p≤0.05. On a side note: inclusion versus exclusion of the medRxiv/preprint articles does not alter the overall positive ivermectin treatment effects.
These clinical findings are in addition to the highly plausible molecular biology and pharmacology mechanisms of how ivermectin is potentially effective for preventing the entry of some viruses into cells. For purposes of keeping the length of this document manageable, the pharmacologic mechanism of action will not be discussed here.
A Value of p ≤0.05 is Important, but it Isn’t Everything
Studies with p-values higher than 0.05 still provide evidence – just evidence with a lower than 95% confidence. Alone, those studies may not provide statistical confidence by themselves against the null hypothesis. However, they may contribute to a meta-analysis, in which they are weighted appropriately. In an analysis, they may actually result in strong statistical evidence and greater confidence from the combination of data from multiple independent scientific teams. Smaller studies and real-world observational studies should not always be dismissed as non-evidential; even case reports and case series have historically played an important role in biomedical research and the assessment of drug safety. In fact, those sources of data were part of what I routinely considered in approving new drugs and labeling updates during my years at the FDA as a drug safety expert.
RCTs are conceptually preferred if properly designed and carefully conducted, but the Covid era exposed severe biases in such trials: including but not limited to treatment delays (as Covid-19 along with any antiviral treatment must begin promptly) protocols that were designed to fail, mid-study changes, biased analysis and presentation, and lack of transparency in data and suspiciously timed publication releases. Each study should be evaluated for potential biases and/or confoundings on its own merit, whether randomized or observational, large or small.
Major RCTs allegedly producing Big Pharma-coined-term of “Evidence-Based Medicine™” published in “big journals” can appear very compelling, especially because they are what the lay press tends to cite most commonly, but clinicians should know that it is important to examine the methodology used beyond the high-level summary overviews and to also look at additional sources of data.
Another problem with RCTs is that, unlike real-world and observational studies, not just anyone can conduct large RCTs. Barriers include them often being significantly more expensive, time-consuming and requiring a dedicated, highly skilled support staff. Those sorts of requirements prohibit entry by less-well-funded clinicians who have smaller practices/facilities or those that have employment requirements which have a focus on direct care responsibilities as opposed to clinical research. While federal grants are available, they are highly competitive and tend to be limited to particularly listed topics which in turn end up being awarded to a limited number of major centers with those aforementioned resources.
Those major centers and/or their employees can be connected in one way or another to Big Pharma funding. For highly profitable Covid-19 drug trials, it could directly or indirectly create a conflict or incentive to show a lack of effectiveness or safety for inexpensive generic products, and in turn show efficacy for novel, expensive patented commercial products. This scenario not only applies to Covid-19 treatments such as ivermectin, it applies to a fair amount of all investigational medicine research.
In fact, a multitude of smaller, less expensive non-RCT observational/real-world-use studies across many facilities can make a stronger case by noting that dependence on any individual trial is subject to potential confounding, errors, bias, and even fraud. Therefore, the combined evidence from multiple, well-designed and conducted smaller, real-world, case reports, case series, and/or observational trials from an array of smaller facilities, combined via meta-analyses can sometimes be a stronger indicator than that of just one or a few biased large trials.
A diagram adapted from a Nature publication (below) illustrates a scenario in which 4 (four) smaller studies that individually may not have delivered statistical significance (ie, have a p>0.05) but when considered in combination, may provide strong evidence with a statistical significance via meta-analysis:
Separately, that same publication additionally underscores how important it is for scientists and clinicians to not mistakenly assume that “non-significance” (ie, a higher deviation from p≤0.05) translates to “no effect.” Statistical significance is just a numerical estimate of the confidence of a result. The idea that a small p-value implies that the estimate is credible/true/valid /the-only-thing-that-matters is a misconception. A small p-value of an RCT (for instance) says nothing about the quality of the estimate.
In the matter at hand, and in summation, a random-effects meta-analysis shows a clinically beneficial effect of ivermectin with a certainty of p<0.00000000001 (that is, one in one sextillion) over all 103 ivermectin studies for Covid-19, and also for RCTs and for specific outcomes like mortality hospitalization and recovery cases which all show p<0.0001.
Timing is Everything…(When it Comes to Initiating Antiviral Treatment)
The use of the word “early” in the “c19early.com” website is an important annotation. It reminds us of how critical timing is when it comes to any antiviral/antimicrobial drug administration. Ivermectin as an antiviral works best when administered early upon symptom(s) (or for prophylaxis/pre-exposure). That is the same when it comes to any antiviral pharmacology treatments, including for cold sores, genital herpes, influenza, or HIV/AIDS for instance.
Delayed administration could still have a clinical benefit, but less so, depending on how late and individual factors that include viral replication, infective loading dose, and viral variant/mutation, besides numerous demographic, immunologic, plus other factors. That is a fundamental concept that anyone in the field of pharmacy or medicine should have learned early in their schooling, yet it seems to have been omitted in about half of the 103 studies done on ivermectin which employed delayed or late treatment.
In addition to the delay in ivermectin dosing was the delay in releasing study findings. The worst example might be PRINCIPLE RCT results which were delayed over 800 days from the expected release of findings. PRINCIPLE (bibliography and explanation in reference number 88 below) was biased against showing efficacy per the design, operation, analysis, and reporting, and including very late ivermectin administration, yet still ended up showing a positive effect of ivermectin. During the delay in releasing data, novel, expensive, likely less efficacious “rebounding” Big Pharma treatments like molnupiravir and Paxlovid were developed, (and tested against placebo instead of treatments like ivermectin) reviewed, authorized, and White House-endorsed. Paxlovid ($1,400 per treatment course) and molnupiravir ($700 per course) were each around ten times more expensive than ivermectin (<$100 per course). Paxlovid purchased by the White House cost American taxpayers over $10 billion.
For perspective: the greater than $9 billion savings from the use of ivermectin alone could have instead bought about 36,000 $250,000 Lamborghini Huracans, or alternatively for those of us who must work for a living, about 300,000 $30,000 Toyota Camry SEs (the most popular model).
For Covid-19, There is More to the Data than Just Press/Abstract “Topline Results”
To fully address transparency, I am including a full list of ivermectin studies completed to date, with the plurality of positive and negative findings in the form of an annotated bibliography at the end of this article to allow readers to see the sources of the research. Each of the 103 references includes a brief summary and a link to a longer analysis at c19early.
Along with the bibliography, I am also including two summary plots of the ivermectin data from c19early on overall benefit, and relative benefits from prophylaxis, early, and late treatments.
Click here to see annotated bibliography.
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
The prospect of Russia & US in a World War is become real with Biden Inc. and maybe they will start it before the US election to suspend elections? NE – NAKEDEMPEROR.SUBSTACK.COM was stunning & we
must take serious the words of Former Russian Prime Minister and President, Dmitry Medvedev; Russia will supply weapons to enemies of the US and west if US weapons strike Russia via Ukraine
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 11 |
Is the plan to get US into full war to suspend the elections? So Biden et al. can stay in power?
‘Yesterday the President of Russia for the first time ever acknowledged the possibility of sending our weapons to the regions that fight against the states who provide arms to the f. Ukraine. (More precisely, use these arms against our country.) In other words, to the forces that are in conflict with the US, and NATO states.’
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NEWS ADDICTS
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| Medical Journal Covered-Up Study Proving Covid Shots Cause CancerA top medical journal has been caught covering up a bombshell study that found conclusive evidence proving that Covid mRNA vaccines cause cancer.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| EX-CDC Director Admits Covid ‘Vaccines’ Are a ScamThe former head of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has decided to come clean and admits that the Covid mRNA “vaccines” pushed onto the public are, in fact, a scam.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| CNN Drops Biden Bombshell On Live TVDuring a debate on Hunter Biden’s scandals, CNN political commentator Jonah Goldberg made a significant statement.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Dems Secretly Move To DUMP Joe BidenNate Silver, a pollster, raised doubts on Monday about the idea that Joe Biden stepping down from the presidential race at this moment could provide Democrats with the greatest opportunity to beat President Donald Trump.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Nancy Pelosi ADMITS Responsibility for Jan 6House Republicans were given access to new video footage showing former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi taking responsibility for the lack of National Guard protection at the Capitol before the January 6, 2021 protests.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Mexico
Peso Tumbles Further After Leftist President-Elect Sheinbaum Confirms Drastic Reform
TUESDAY, JUN 11, 2024 – 06:40 PM
The Mexican Peso has continued falling against the dollar on news that the country’s leftist President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum has committed to pushing through deeply controversial reforms of the judiciary widely seen as negative for Mexico’s efforts to create an attractive and prosperous business climate.
In a Monday press conference she previewed plans to put her cabinet in place, after which she confirmed that the “constitutional reform of the judiciary would be among the first reforms to be approved.” A fundamental change is that that federal judges will get elected by popular vote, instead of appointment.
The reform is not merely a future election plan when judge’s terms are up, but would replace an appointed Supreme Court with popularly elected judges, and would apply to some lower courts.
The reforms require amendments to the constitution, something easily attainable for Sheinbaum’s Morena party given it holds a supermajority in both houses of Mexico’s Congress.
As Sheinbaum spoke Monday, the peso tumbled by nearly 2% to around 18.55 per US dollar in international trading, reaching a 14-month low, extending the ongoing decline since her June 3rd election victory. The peso has depreciated more than 9% since election day.
Sheinbaum also announced that the Biden White House has sent a delegation to welcome her into the country’s top office, and an initial meeting will be held Wednesday.
But current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador doesn’t actually step down until Oct. 1, and with Morena’s supermajority in Congress, López Obrador might fast-track the judicial reform, a further big unknown making investors nervous.
Bloomberg writes “MXN is down 1% and again among the worst performing major currencies in the word Tuesday, adding to recent losses that made it the second quarter’s biggest decliner.”
AFP observes, “Congress is expected to convene on September 1, potentially giving Lopez Obrador a one-month window to push through reforms before retiring.” Below is more via a Bloomberg note:
- Sheinbaum’s comments added to concern that Mexico’s government will face weakened checks and balances on its power, opening the way for market unfriendly measures
- Broad flight-to-quality move is also weighing on the peso Tuesday; most major currencies are depreciating against the dollar while US treasury yields decline 2-3 basis points, a move that is also reflected in TIIE swaps
- S&P futures are down 0.5%, while most stock indexes in Europe are facing an even bigger decline; declines in oil and copper are also set to contribute to negative sentiment in Latin America
- The Mexican peso is likely to keep rewarding traders holding short-maturing options, and punishing those eager to fade the move in implied volatility
Sheinbaum on Monday in responding to a reporter’s question said she did not believe her reform program would significantly weaken the peso or impact financial markets.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0759 UP .0020
USA/ YEN 157.34 UP 0.230 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2759 UP .0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3747 DOWN .0007 (CDN DOLLAR UP 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.42 PTS OR .31%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 238.50 PTS OR 1.31%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.63%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 190.6PTS OR .75 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.42 PTS OR .31%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED D0WN 0.63%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 258.08 PTS OR 1,31%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2312.35
silver:$29.36
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 104.72 DOWN 48 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.181% DOWN 9 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.976% DOWN 4 AND 1/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.366 DOWN 9 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.936 DOWN 13 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.535 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0844 UP 0.01033 OR 104 basis points
USA/Japan: 155.85 DOWN 1.265 OR YEN IS UP 127 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.1790 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0073 OR 73 BASIS pts to 1.3682
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2425 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2557)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.31 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.976…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 14 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.267% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.448 DOWN 9 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.618 DOWN 15 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2326.90
SILVER AT 11;30: 29.85
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 67.67 PTS OR 0.83%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 260.93 PTS OR 1.42%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 75.49 PTS OR 0.97 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 69.90 OR 0.63%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 484.35 PTS OR 1.44% PTS
WTI Oil price 77.65 12EST/
Brent Oil: 81.73 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 89.10 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5350 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1790 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0804 UP 0.0064 OR 64 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2794 UP 0.0056 OR 56 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.147 DOWN 16 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.950%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 156.86 DOWN 0.243/ YEN UP 24 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3729 DOWN 0026 //CDN dollar UP 26 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.27
Brent OIL: 82.41
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS pts to 4.323
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 4.475%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 8 PTS AT 4.750
USA dollar index: 104.30 DOWN 90 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.29 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.10 DOWN 0 AND 0//100 roubles
GOLD 2,321.90 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.61 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 35.21 PTS OR 0.091 %
NASDAQ UP 254.99 PTS OR 1.33 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 11.95 DOWN 90 PTS OR 7.00%
GLD: $214.72 UP 0.57 OR 0.27%
SLV/ $27.03 DOWN 0.32 . OR 1.20%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Markets Flip-Flop As Buybacks & ‘Bad’ Data Battle Hawkish Dots & Pensive Powell
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Soft CPI (bad data?) sparked a melt-up in stocks, bonds (prices), gold, and crypto which held in place until The Fed statement (more specifically the dotplot) which sent a more hawkish message to markets than was expected.
The initial reversal shock of the hawkish statement was quickly stymied by Powell’s press conference where he shrugged off the dots and left the door open for cuts…
- POWELL: FED PROJECTIONS AREN’T A PLAN, THEY CAN ADJUST
- POWELL: WE ARE PRACTICING A SLIGHT ELEMENT OF CONSERVATISM ON OUR INFLATION OUTLOOK
- POWELL: WE’RE ASSUMING GOOD BUT NOT GREAT INFLATION NUMBERS
- POWELL: WE WELCOME TODAY’S INFLATION READING, HOPE FOR MORE
But realistically – as Jeff Gundlach noted – he was considerably more “on the fence” than he has been before…
Powell seems to consider the balance of risks a lot more, well, balanced. He mentioned more than once the risk that the job market could give way suddenly and sharply.
Bloomberg’s natural language processing model showed that Powell’s opening remarks were right at neutral after being modestly dovish in May.
“Our ear test considered Powell slightly more hawkish than the May opening remarks, but very marginally,” BI’s Jersey says.
“Our NLP model confirmed this ear test, so it’s not surprising the front end of the market has sold off a bit listening to Powell.”
Today’s soft CPI (bad data) sent the inflation surprise index lower…
Source: Bloomberg
The soft CPI sent rate-cut expectations soaring but the FOMC Dots sparked a reversal (mostly in the 2024 expectations)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks followed a similar (if not delayed) path as the FOMC statement dented the post-CPI spike (with Small Caps seeing a massive short squeeze higher). Powell was unable to keep the soft-CPI dream alive during his press conference as he so often does. The Dow was the day’s laggard
Source: Bloomberg
AAPL once again saw an utterly irrational panic bid at the US cash open (as buybacks continued)…
Source: Bloomberg
Here’s Goldman’s trading desk:
Our buyback desk is currently running at 1.6x ytd daily avg notional executed. Extrapolate this to the entire street pacing at over $7b of vwap type of demand today. The biggest are getting bigger.
…but as we noted at the top, it seems the buyback dollars have run out…
did the buyback run out of $?
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zerohedge
@zerohedge
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AAPL +$430BN in past two days as buyback program goes full tilt
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Treasury yields were dramatically lower today with the belly of the curve outperforming. This shift erased all of the post-payrolls spike in yields..
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, we saw the long-term neutral rate rise for the second quarter…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the day lower but reversed a lot of the early CPI losses after the hawkish dots…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged back up to $70,000 on the CPI print then reversed all the gains on the dots…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly BTC and AAPL dumped together on the FOMC dots but AAPL barely budged on the CPI data while BTC ripped (it’s not the AI, stupid, it’s the buybacks)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended unchanged after CPI gains were erased…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended higher on the day but off their highs above $79 (WTI) after tumbling on the DOE inventory builds,basically retracing the post-API crude draw gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the last month has seen the post-Powell-pivot trend of stronger-hard-data and stocks has now completely broken…
Source: Bloomberg
Will today’s reality check from The Fed’s ‘DOTS’ punch stocks in the face?
MORNING TRADING//CPI
supposedly CPI under control
(zerohedge)
Consumer Prices Hold At Record Highs – Up 20% Since Biden Elected
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 08:41 AM
The headline consumer price index was unchanged MoM in May – the smallest change since July 2022 – just less than the +0.1% MoM expected. On a YoY basis, headline CPI rose 3.3% (less than the 3.4% exp) – but very much stuck in a range well above the 2% target for over year now…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy was the biggest drag on the headline CPI MoM…(Gasoline prices tumbled 3.6% in May from April, one key reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month. )
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.2% MoM (below the 0.3% exp) pulling the YoY change down to 3.4% (from 3.6% and below the 3.5% exp). That is the lowest Core CPI YoY since April 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI has not had a down-month since President Biden was elected.
Core Services inflation slowed notably MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in May and was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy.
- May Shelter inflation 5.41% YoY, down from 5.55% in April and lowest since April 2022
- May Rent inflation 5.30% YoY, down from 5.44% and lowest since May 2022
For context on how important housing costs are to US inflation data, the shelter index rose 5.4% over the last year, making up over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.
Source: Bloomberg
The full breakdown…
Services INflation remains awkwardly stuck above 5% while Goods DEflation is at its weakest since January 2004…
Source: Bloomberg
SuperCore CPI fell 0.05% MoM – its first drop since Sept 2021, but that left the YoY level still above 5.0%…
Source: Bloomberg
Transportation Services costs tumbled MoM to drag SuperCore lower MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
We note that consumer prices have not fallen in a single month since President Biden’s term began (July 2022 and May 2024 was the closest with ‘unchanged’), which leaves overall prices up over 19.5% since Bidenomics was unleashed (compares with +8% during Trump’s term).
And prices have never been more expensive…
That is an average of 5.4% per annum (almost triple the 1.9% average per annum rise in price during President Trump’s term).
Source: Bloomberg
Since President Biden was elected, food prices at home are up around 21% and food prices away from home are up almost 23%…
Finally, while the ‘flations’ have broadly tracked M2 lower, we note that M2 YoY is now starting to turn back higher once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Will the next President and Fed head face a 70s redux?
Source: Bloomberg
And is this guaranteed if Powell decides “insurance” cuts are required (for Biden?)
END
Wall Street Reacts To Today’s Dovish CPI Shocker: “Down And Out”
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 10:03 AM
As we expected in our preview calling for “optimism for a low print“, today’s CPI delivered the kind of downside surprise that bond bulls and the Fed have been waiting for, as both headline and core came in a tenth lower than expected, largely driven by a 3.6% drop in gasoline prices – the biggest reason why the headline CPI was flat on the month – and as Bloomberg adds, “the miss looks legit, given the shortfall in the actual indices relative to forecast.” Indeed, at 0.16% the rise in core nearly rose just 0.1% when rounded. Meanwhile, in what may have been the biggest surprise, supercore services ex housing fell by 0.04%, the first negative reading since September 2021!
Supercore NEGATIVE!
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The soft CPI print obvious puts two rate cuts in 2024 as the obvious center of policy distribution – with an outside chance for the Fed to keep its 3 cut baseline in today’s dots – and opens the door for the market to price more in 2025.
Meanwhile, the big delta remains housing: as the BLS noted, the shelter index increased 5.4% over the last year, accounting for over two thirds of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index. Yet with lagged OER/shelter/rent still hot relative to real-time prices, the core monthly CPI gain undershot the median forecast for the first time since October.
And here is the punchline: with real-time rent flat to down for the past year, the BLS-tracked OER 5-months lagged, is up 5.6%, and will decline gradually for the next 18 months as it catches down to real-time rents, even as the latter are actively rising, something which Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights agrees with in his morning note titled “Down and Out” : “A 0.2% monthly core CPI reading should be the base case for the balance of the year, especially as it looks more and more like the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs will hit as soon as the next report.”
In any case, however one looks at today’s report, the bottom line is clear: the doves have it, and now the ball is in the Fed’s court to decide whether to keep the dots at 3 cuts for 2024 or move to 2, even as the hawkish “1 cut” case has been officially eliminated. Indeed, here is Bloomberg’s Fed Watcher Chris Antsey on this issue: “for any Fed governor or district bank president who had been on the fence about one rate cut or two for 2024, this might have tipped them over. All eyes at 2 p.m. in Washington will be on that median estimate for the year-end policy rate.”
And to underscore that, here are some of the more notable Wall Street reactions.
Gregory Faranello, head of rates strategy at AmeriVet Securities:
“The CPI is a really nice inflation reading. The Fed meeting today should see officials move toward two rate cuts for 2024 and softer CPI readings from here will keep a September cut in play.”
Omair Sharif at Inflation Insights:
“A 0.2% monthly core CPI reading should be the base case for the balance of the year, especially as it looks more and more like the long-awaited slowdown in shelter costs will hit as soon as the next report.”
Ira Jersey, Bloomberg Intel chief rates strategist:
“The knee-jerk reaction in the Treasury market isn’t surprising given the Fed-friendly CPI print, particularly the “low” 0.2% on core CPI. Jay Powell can now say ‘we’re making slow but additional progress on inflation’ at this afternoon’s press conference. Investors have been asking if members of the FOMC might change their summary of economic projection forecasts after the CPI print, since they are submitted prior to the start of the meeting. Today’s report probably doesn’t really shift expectations much. We’ve been thinking November and December cuts as our base base, and this data solidifies that view.”
Lindsay Rosner of Goldman Sachs Asset Management
“This was good news but it is one piece of news. June is a no-go. We have felt July the same. Again today is a good print for restrictive rates working to quell inflation, so September is a possibility.”
Bryce Doty, Sit Investment Associates senior PM:
“A calm CPI report. This CPI report gives the Fed the flexibility to still cut rates. We still expect the Fed to hold off until after the election though.”
Ashwin Alankar, head of asset allocation at Janus Henderson Investors:
“Until greater dis-inflation evidence is seen both in breadth and depth, today’s softness is supportive of a preemptive cut rather than a pivot in Fed policy towards accommodation.”
Ana Galvao, Bloomberg Economics:
“The downside surprise in CPI could have an impact on asset prices over the medium term, not just today. Bloomberg Economics’ Macro-Finance model suggests forecasts for two-year Treasury yields will fall by 15 bps through 1Q25.”
Olu Sonola, head of US econ at Fitch
“This was unequivocally a good report, a delightful appetizer while we await the main course later on today. The core services print of 0.2% was the lowest since September 2021 and that will definitely boost confidence if that trend continues over the next couple of months. While the door to an interest rate cut in July is effectively shut, the window still looks open for later on this year.”
Finally, here is a good wrapper from Bloomberg’s econ team:
“May’s soft core CPI reading should reassure the Fed that inflation is slowing. Disinflation was broad across both goods and services categories.
“We expect core CPI prints over the summer to proceed at a mostly similar pace. With three more moderate prints in hand by the time of the September FOMC meeting, we think Fed officials will be convinced to start cutting rates then.”
Source: Bloomberg
AFTERNOON TRADING///FOMC MINUTES
FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 02:00 PM
Tl;dr: there were 10 Fed members who saw rates at 4.625% or below by end 2024 in March… now there are none…
June Dots summary:
- No Cuts: 4 (2 in March)
- 1 Cut: 7 (2 in March)
- 2 Cuts: 8 (5 in March)
- 3 Cuts: 0 (9 in March)
- 4 Cuts: 0 (1 in March)
The Fed re-arranged 2024-2025 dots from 2+3 to 1+4, and marked-to market their Core PCE forecast for year-end – signaling they are just being extra careful, and want some more evidence before committing to a cut.
Whether or not dots were revised post-CPI… the takeaways are: (1) FOMC agree ’24 will see 1 or 2 cuts; (2) wide range of views on how policy plays out after this; (3) but overall dots have shifted up; (4) two schools of thought on R* (some higher vs. others no change) $USD
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https://twitter.com/VPatelFX/status/180095672844956899
Additionally, The Fed increased its end-2024 expectations for inflation…but kept its unemployment expectations unchanged…
There were no dissents today.
This is not what the market was looking for… but will Powell reverse this in the presser.
* * *
Since the last FOMC statement (on May 1st), stocks and bonds have outperformed (with the former at record highs), gold is flat while the dollar is down modestly. Amid all that, oil is down significantly…
Source: Bloomberg
These market moves have been prompted by a ‘bad news is good news’ regime as US macro data has serially disappointed…
Source: Bloomberg
…adding significantly to hopes for a more dovish Fed (2 cuts priced in for 2024 and an additional 92bps of cuts in 2025)…
Source: Bloomberg
The good news is that while growth ‘surprises’ have slipped lower, inflation ‘surprises’ have also drifted lower after four months of stagflationary signals worrying markets…
Source: Bloomberg
Today we also get to see a new DotPlot, which is expected to show and adjustment down from three to two cuts for 2024 (with a risk to an adjustment down to just one cut)…
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, as a reminder, the global backdrop for today’s Fed decision is that big US trading partners, like Canada and the euro area, have cut interest rates even as inflation remains an issue.
So, What Did The Fed Do?
The Fed held rates unchanged as expected…
*FED HOLDS BENCHMARK RATE IN 5.25-5.5% TARGET RANGE
And changed wording on inflation (from a “lack” of progress):
*FED: INFLATION MADE MODEST FURTHER PROGRESS IN RECENT MONTHS
BUT…
The dot-plot was hawkish, adjust to just one 25bps cut in 2024 (and four 25bps cuts in 2025)
*FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 25 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’24 VS 75 BPS
*FOMC MEDIAN FORECAST SHOWS 100 BPS RATE CUTS IN ’25 VS 75 BPS
There is another notable development: The longer-run estimate of the federal funds rate has gone up to 2.8% now, in the median forecast. That’s the second straight increase. Last time it had ticked up to 2.6% from 2.5%.
So, in six months, policymakers have added more than a quarter percentage point to where they see the benchmark rate over the longer haul — the so-called neutral rate.
Additionally, The Fed increased its end-2024 expectations for inflation…but kept its unemployment expectations unchanged…
There were no dissents today, extending the streak of zero votes against the FOMC policy decision to 16 meetings, the longest period of no dissents since Alan Greenspan’s 17-meeting streak from August 2003 to September 2005 – when Mark Olson dissented.
Read the full redline below (barely changed):
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Are The Jobs Drying Up?
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Part of the difficulty in reading economic statistics to discern where we are in the cycle is the huge crater of 2020. A full shutdown like this had never happened before. All data just went nuts, seesawing one way down and then the other way up. Everyone is looking at this and trying to understand the implications.
Whatever you want to say about business cycles in the past, they followed patterns that could be traced. Theories could be mapped to explain them and policies constructed to avoid them. But it becomes a very different matter when you have suddenly imposed a global forced crash of nearly everything. We can only watch with amazement.
We have to add to this what seems to be a new problem, which is the outright gaming of the data for political reasons. We see it in all the big releases, from GDP to jobs to inflation. The spin in the press release has often contradicted the underlying data. Wall Street only follows the spin, and it is left just to a handful of people who care to unpack precisely what is going on.
The jobs data has all these problems. Each month, we hear about glorious job creation, only to find out later that they are mostly part-time jobs, mostly held by non-natives, while full-time jobs keep shrinking as real income continues to fall, now three years in a row. Parsing all of this and comparing it with the pre-2020 world becomes nearly impossible.
The latest jobs report underscores the point. The headline number seems amazing until you drill down into the jobs themselves. Looking at the more accurate household survey, instead of the establishment survey, we find a huge loss of 625,000 full-time jobs, and those are mitigated by an increase of part-time workers of 286,000. This is not a strong and vibrant market by any stretch. The press releases are pitching job losses as job gains.
It’s because of all this flimflammery that I’ve stuck with my sense that we have never really left the forced recession of March 2020. All the rest is just an illusion. Our disorientation is so severe that it is hard to process intellectually and psychologically. Despite all the cheerleading we get from the White House, the bottom line is that the whole country and the whole world are much poorer today than they were five years ago.
At some point, this problem, unless reversed dramatically with new policies, will come home to hit the jobs market. So far, this has not really been much of an issue because so many businesses lost employees during the lockdowns. There has been a recovery of sorts in hospitality and there has been a pent-up demand for labor there. We have seen some shift to the service industry from white-collar employment, and to part-time from full-time.
What we haven’t experienced on a large scale just yet is an outright shortage of places to work. But that might be starting to change now, with inflation driving up costs of everything including labor. Employers now find themselves in the position of grave reluctance to hire. Instead, they are squeezing existing payrolls for every bit of labor they can.
As a result, job openings are falling, and dramatically so. Even now, labor participation still has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.
This is quite the change for many young people. Only a couple of years ago, jobs were plentiful, maybe not full-time and maybe not high-paying, but they were there. It’s no longer reliably true. Job seekers are now encountering a market that seems ever more stuck in the mud, with fewer positions being offered and ever-higher standards for employment.
Those with solid positions are clinging to them tightly, with a growing awareness that this is no time to switch or otherwise take risks. Feeling trapped in a job that is not quite to your liking means a more miserable life. This is doubly true if you hold a mortgage at a low rate from the past but dread the idea of taking on a new one at a much higher rate. As a result, people are feeling bound not only to their current positions but also trapped by their own plywood palaces.
This is not how a vibrant and flourishing economy is supposed to work. It only adds insult that people at the top of the food chain frequently deny that anything is going wrong at all. We are told daily that the economy is performing well and that we have experienced a robust recovery. There is not one person on Main Street who believes this.
The underlying finances of households right now are on track toward disaster, with credit card debt still rising despite high interest rates and saving rates far below pre-lockdown levels. This is simply not sustainable.
News media continues to speculate about whether we will have a soft landing. But the metaphor is all wrong. The plane never took off in the first place. No matter where you look, if you look carefully, you see a degraded economic structure of stagnation plus inflation. This is not a good omen for the future.
END
Michael Snyder
the state of affairs for the world
(Michael Snyder)
Our Apocalyptic ‘New Normal’: Most Global Conflict Since WWII, Most Billion-Dollar Disasters Ever, & Most Hungry People In History
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 08:55 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The End of The American Dream blog,
Our world is witnessing apocalyptic events so frequently that many of us are starting to become numb to it all. Major wars are raging all over the globe, children in Africa are literally dropping dead from starvation as hunger spreads like wildfire, and “billion dollar disasters” are hitting us more frequently than we have ever seen before. But as long as these tragedies are not affecting us directly, most people don’t really care too much. As the level of worldwide suffering rises, it seems as though hearts are getting colder at the same time.
The traumatic events of the past several years have left deep scars, and there are many that prefer to ignore the apocalyptic things that are happening in the world because it is just too much for them to handle emotionally.
According to a brand new study, the number of armed conflicts in 2023 was the most that we have seen in a single year since the end of World War II…
More armed conflicts took place worldwide in 2023 than any other year since the end of the Second World War, according to a Norwegian study published Monday.
Last year saw 59 conflicts of which 28 were in Africa, the the Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) showed.
We really are living in a time of “wars and rumors of wars”.
But since it isn’t our sons and daughters that are being gunned down on the killing fields of eastern Ukraine, most of us in the western world aren’t really moved by all of the bloodshed.
Every single day, more young lives are being wasted.
But if you think that things are bad now, just wait until Israel and Hezbollah start lobbing thousands of missiles back and forth, China invades Taiwan, and the Russians and NATO begin directly pummeling one another.
Meanwhile, global hunger just continues to grow.
In fact, it is being reported that the number of people facing acute food insecurity last year was the highest ever recorded…
The number of people threatened by hunger in the world has never been so high. In 2023, 281 million people in 59 countries were facing acute food insecurity, according to the 2024 Global Report on Food Crises, published on Wednesday, April 24, by several international organizations (including UN agencies, the European Union, the US Agency for International Development). This figure is up on 2022 (257 million) in its fifth year running.
“This Global Report on Food Crises is a roll call of human failings,” warned UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, prefacing the analysis.
A decade ago, world leaders dreamed of a day when hunger would be eradicated.
Today, that dream is completely dead.
Right now, hunger is exploding in areas all over the continent of Africa.
In Sudan, people are literally eating dirt and leaves just so that they can fill their stomachs with something…
Time is running out to prevent starvation in Sudan, warns the World Food Program.
Twenty-five million people in Sudan need humanitarian assistance, 18 million are facing acute food insecurity and 5 million people are at emergency levels approaching famine as the country’s civil war passes the one-year mark.
Amid so many other crises, the world’s largest hunger crisis is drawing little global attention. In the Al Lait refugee camp, for example, people are eating dirt and boiling leaves, just to have something in their bellies, reports Reuters. Others are eating grass and peanut shells, according to the World Food Program.
Since it isn’t happening to us, most of us don’t really care.
But hunger is growing here too.
According to one recent survey, over one-fourth of the entire U.S. population is now skipping meals due to crazy high food prices…
More than a quarter of Americans have resorted to skipping meals to avoid paying inflated grocery store prices, according to a new survey.
According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have felt a “notable increase” in grocery costs in recent years. More than a quarter of respondents said the increased cost has led them to occasionally skip meals, while about one-third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on mandatory expenses such as food, utilities and rent.
“Food insecurity is a major issue in this country as millions of Americans don’t have enough food to eat or don’t have access to healthy food,” Courtney Alev, a consumer financial advocate at Credit Karma, said in a statement.
I keep warning my readers that this is just the beginning, and I hope that they are taking me seriously.
We are also living at a time when major natural disasters are becoming more frequent.
Last year, our world was hit by more “billion dollar disasters” than ever before…
The planet was besieged by a record 63 billion-dollar weather disasters in 2023, surpassing the previous record of 57 set in 2020, said insurance broker Gallagher Re in its annual report issued January 17.
Unfortunately, we may top that number this year.
So far in 2024, there have already been 11 “billion dollar disasters” in the United States alone…
A deadly outbreak of tornadoes last month caused $4.7 billion in damages across the Southern, Southeastern and Central U.S., making it one of the costliest weather events of the year so far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said on Monday.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there had been 11 confirmed weather and climate disaster events so far this year with losses exceeding $1 billion, with the total price tag topping $25 billion. There were more than 165 tornadoes during the May 6-9 outbreak, impacting Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia and Florida, officials said.
We have already experienced so many historic disasters, and hurricane season and the heart of wildfire season are still ahead of us.
Almost every day, we are seeing things happen that we have never seen before.
For example, storm chasers in the middle of the country just recovered a piece of hail that was “about the size of a pineapple”…
Val and Amy Castor, veteran storm chasers with Oklahoma City television station KWTV, discovered a piece of hail more than 7 inches (17.78 centimeters) long Sunday along the side of the road near Vigo Park while they were chasing a major thunderstorm system.
Val Castor said the stone was about the size of a pineapple.
“That’s the biggest hail I’ve ever seen, and I’ve been chasing storms for more than 30 years,” Castor said.
We aren’t supposed to have hail of that size.
But this is the “new normal” where the old rules simply don’t apply.
In California, there has been an alarming series of earthquakes during the past couple of weeks…
First, a magnitude 3.6 earthquake in the Ojai Valley sent weak shaking from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles on May 31. Then came two small quakes under the eastern L.A. neighborhood of El Sereno, the most powerful a 3.4. Finally, a trio of tremors hit the Costa Mesa-Newport Beach border, topping out at a magnitude 3.6 Thursday.
Having half a dozen earthquakes with a magnitude over 2.5 in a week, hitting three distinct parts of Southern California, all in highly populated areas, is not a common occurrence.
The “Big One” is coming eventually, but I don’t think it is coming quite yet.
Hopefully I am not wrong about that.
Other nations are getting pounded by natural disaster after natural disaster as well.
Brazil has been getting hit particularly hard. Nightmarish flooding was making headlines down there for a while, but now wildfires are taking center stage…
After historic floods recently claimed 172 lives in coastal Brazil, the country now faces a new crisis as fires rage through the Pantanal wetlands. These fires have surged nearly tenfold compared to the same period last year, setting the stage for a potential catastrophe worse than the devastating fires of 2020. With severe to extreme drought conditions expected, the situation is becoming increasingly dire.
Data from the Brazilian space research agency, National Institute for Space Research (INPE) reveals a staggering 980% jump in fires across the Pantanal wetlands this year through June 5, compared to the same timeframe in 2023.
Speaking of Brazil, it is in the midst of the worst pandemic of dengue fever that has ever been recorded in that nation…
Brazil recorded the highest number of dengue cases globally in 2024 according to new data from the World Health Organization (WHO). There are nearly 6.3 million probable, and 3 million confirmed cases in the country.
The South American country counts 82% of the 7.6 million probable cases of dengue recorded in the entire world by the WHO this year. Sadly, it also accounts for 77% of the 3,680 deaths globally from the virus and 82% of the 16,242 cases of severe dengue reported.
Thus far, 2024 has seen the most serious dengue outbreak ever recorded in Brazil. According to the Ministry of Health, by the end of May, the number of probable cases was 328% higher than that recorded in the same period last year, which had already seen a record number of dengue diagnoses.
So many pestilences are causing major problems all over the globe right now.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the number of Mpox cases has surged to an all-time record high, and it is the form of the disease that has a particularly high death rate…
The ongoing outbreak of clade I mpox in the DRC has already claimed many victims: The DRC reports “multiple provincial outbreaks” occurring between the beginning of 2023 and April 14, 2024, with an estimated total of 19,919 cases and 975 deaths — meaning that about 1 in every 20 patients have died.
This outbreak is also perhaps the most widespread: “During 2023 and 2024, clade I mpox cases were reported from 25 of 26 provinces and, for the first time, from the capital city of Kinshasa,” the CDC team noted.
Children are especially vulnerable: According to the report, “two thirds (67%) of suspected cases and more than three quarters (78%) of suspected deaths have occurred in persons aged 15 years [or younger].”
If you ever catch this form of Mpox, you will remember it for the rest of your life even if you survive, because it will be the worst pain that you have ever experienced.
On top of everything else, it is being reported that scientists have discovered “giant viruses” in the enormous sheets of ice that cover Greenland…
The idea of a giant virus lurking on a vast ice sheet might sound like the plot to the latest science fiction blockbuster.
But it’s become a reality, after researchers discovered giant viruses while exploring the Greenland ice sheet.
Hopefully none of those “giant viruses” poses a major threat to humanity.
But without a doubt, there will be more global pandemics in our future.
In fact, all of the trends that I have discussed in this article are going to continue to intensify.
Our apocalyptic “new normal” is here.
We live in a world that is going completely and utterly mad, and you can try to ignore that if you wish, but it is the truth.
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IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
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iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH
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SWAMP NEWS
8 Suspected Illegal Alien Terrorists Arrested In New York, Philadelphia & LA
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 10:25 AM
For nearly a quarter-century, Americans have been subjected to mass surveillance via the Patriot Act. Yet, while the government violates the privacy rights of Americans with warrantless surveillance, the safety of the country is being undermined by top left-wing officials flooding the open southern border with millions of illegal aliens, some of which are known terrorists and or terrorist-linked.
Disastrous open southern border policies pushed by the Biden administration make absolutely no sense in a world that is dangerously fracturing into a multi-polar state of war and conflict. America’s enemies can walk right in, and that’s exactly what’s happening.
NBC News reported Tuesday that eight men from Tajikistan with potential ISIS connections out of central Asia were arrested in New York, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles.
The FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force and US Immigration and Customs Enforcement were tracking the suspects for months after they crossed Biden’s open southern border in the spring of 2023.
While they have not been charged with a terrorist connection or plot yet, the FBI alerted ICE they should be arrested because of potential ties to ISIS, and they were arrested on immigration charges, two sources say. They are detained and face removal proceedings before an immigration judge, and they could later face terrorism-related charges, two sources say. -NBC
One X user made this point, “Why do Americans still have to abide by the patriot act while migrants are free to roam? This is a failed president Biden.”
When one tries to rationalize the White House’s decision to allow tens of millions (est.) of illegal aliens into the country, the outcome here is a manufactured crisis that has left the country vulnerable to attack.
In April, FBI Director Christopher Wray warned lawmakers that there is fear of a “coordinated attack” in major US cities. This warning came weeks after ISIS attacked a concert hall in Moscow, killing 145 people.
“Our most immediate concern has been that individuals or small groups will draw twisted inspiration from the events in the Middle East to carry out attacks here at home.
“But now, increasingly concerning is the potential for a coordinated attack here in the homeland, akin to the ISIS-K attack we saw at the Russia concert hall a couple weeks ago,” Wray told a House Appropriations subcommittee earlier this year.
Meanwhile, an Iranian intelligence officer is still on the loose, planning to kill Trump-era officials.
And in February, we penned this note, “More Red Flags Than Before 9-11”: Ohio Sheriff Warns American People Of Worsening Border Invasion.
So again, our rights were violated over these past two decades, all in the name of freedom, and now the government has flooded the nation with migrants, some of which are terrorist or terrorist-linked. And of course, if there is another attack, it will only be met with more mass surveillance by the intel community.
It’s becoming much more apparent what the agenda is at play here. Expand the nanny state one manufactured crisis at a time.
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USA aka Banana Republic
“Pelosi SHOULD Take Responsibility!” J6 Capitol Police Chief Says Speaker’s Staff Blocked Additional Security
WEDNESDAY, JUN 12, 2024 – 12:20 PM
Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund responded to a viral video of former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) admitting that she was responsible for the lack of preparedness on Jan. 6, 2021.
“Pelosi should take responsibility!” Sund posted on X, adding “She put herself in the security decision process and her Sergeant at Arms denied my requests for support before and during the Jan. 6 chaos. She undermined my law enforcement capabilities.”
Sund, who was in charge of the Capitol Police during Jan. 6, then asked “Why did they change the law (2US1970) that tied my hands?”
Pelosi should take responsibility! She put herself in the security decision process and her Sergeant at Arms denied my requests for support before and during the Jan. 6 chaos. She undermined my law enforcement capabilities. #accountability #jan6 Want proof: Why did they change the law (2US1970) that tied my hands? https://congress.gov/117/plaws/publ77/PLAW-117publ77.pdf…
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Chief Steven Sund
@ChiefSund
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Jun 10
Pelosi was surprised we didn’t have National Guard on Jan6?? I was denied National Guard support multiple times before January 6, and repeatedly for 71 minutes ON January 6. MY STORY HASN’T CHANGED! @RepLoudermilk @oversightadmn x.com/OversightAdmn/…
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167.5K Views
https://twitter.com/ChiefSund/status/180065790113398404
On Monday, the House Oversight Committee posted footage of Pelosi admitting “I take responsibility” for the lack of security on Jan. 6.
The video shows Pelosi in an exchange with Chief of Staff Terri McCullough on the evacuation. Pelosi states:
“We have responsibility, Terri. We did not have any accountability for what was going on there. And we should have. This is ridiculous.
You’re going to ask me in the middle of the thing when they’ve already breached…that, should we call the Capitol Police? I mean the National Guard?
Why weren’t the National Guard there to begin with?
…
They clearly didn’t know, and I take responsibility for not having them just prepared for more.”
In February of last year, Sund told journalist Tucker Carlson that Jan. 6 was a “setup” – noting that Pelosi’s staff refused to authorize the deployment of the National Guard at the Capitol despite his pleas, and that federal agencies withheld information and warning signs of potential dangers prior to the riot.
“It doesn’t seem like people really want to get to the bottom of it,” said Sund, adding “It really doesn’t. And it just gets worse. It gets worse from there.”
Sund got approval to bring in the National Guard at 2:09 p.m. Before his approval, he alleged that he begged several generals, including General Michael Flynn, to bring the National Guard. The officials told Sund they did “not like the optics of the National Guard” as he allegedly begged for their assistance to intervene in the violence. –Daily Caller
“This sounds like a set up to me,” Carlson said, adding “I’m sorry, it does.”
To which Sund replied:
“It gets better. So I beg and beg and he goes ‘well, I’m gonna walk down the hall and we’ll talk to the Secretary of Defense or whoever he’s gonna talk to. Right then I get a notification, oh, I’m still on the call, we have the shooting of Ashli Babbitt. And I said we have shots firing, I still remember yelling over the phone. We have shots firing on the U.S. Capitol, is that urgent enough for you now?“
According to Sund, the National Guard didn’t show up until 6 p.m., hours after the fatal shooting of Babbitt. He also claimed that the Pentagon deployed resources to the homes of generals, but not the Capitol.
Watch:
Ep. 15 Former Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund reveals what really happened on January 6th. Our Fox News interview with him never aired, so we invited him back.
55:18
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18.7M Views
KING REPORT
| The King Report June 12, 2024 Issue 7262 | Independent View of the News |
| Repercussions from the stunning EU Parliamentary Elections appeared again on Tuesday. French centre-right leader Ciotti calls for pact with far right in surprise move Eric Ciotti, the leader of French moderate conservatives Les Republicains, is seeking to save his party from a likely painful defeat in the 30 June and 7 July snap French parliamentary elections. Yet, his decision might split it in half… Ciotti, the president of the EPP-affiliated party, said to the French channel TF1 that his party has to create “an alliance with the National Rally (Le Pen), with its candidates, and all of those people that share the ideas of the right.”… https://www.euronews.com/2024/06/11/french-centre-right-leader-ciotti-calls-for-pact-with-far-right-in-surprise-move Le Maire Warns of French Debt Crisis If Le Pen’s Party Wins Vote (due to tax cuts) – BBG Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire warned that France would be plunged into a debt crisis if far-right leader Marine Le Pen were to win legislative elections slated for the end of the month and implement her economic program… (The same Dem fear mongering used against Reagan to embarrassing results!) OATs (French government bonds, Obligations Assimilables du Tresor) got slammed. Macron resignation rumors contributed to the angst. Macron denied he would resign. French nationalists called for ‘Frexit.’ ESMs traded negatively from the Nikkei opening until they went slightly positive from 2:03 ET until 2:55 ET. When Europe opened, ESMs sank, eventually hitting a low of 5350.000 at 7:07 ET. The bounce that tends to occur after the 7 ET US repo market opening took ESMs to 5359.75 at 8:03 ET. ESMs then traded sideways, in a 6-handle range, until they broke down just before the 9:30 ET NYSE opening. After sinking to a daily low of 5334.50 at 9:45 ET, conditioned buying appeared. ESMs jumped to 5349.50 at 10:16 ET. After trading in a 12-handle range until 13:46 ET, ESMs exploded higher. Social media chatter wondered if the May CPI Report had been leaked to someone. ESMs hit a daily high of 5381.00 at 14:33 ET and slowly rolled over until they hit 5370.50 at 15:50 ET. The late manipulation took ESMs to 5385.25 at 15:59 ET. US 10-year (Actually 9-year, 11-month) Auction ($39B) results: 4.438% vs 4.58% WI, USMs, which were up modestly before the auction on safe-haven European buying, rallied smartly after the auction. Apple execs explain why its AI is different from competitors Apple revealed on Monday a more limited approach that eschews future-focused thinking about the potential of the technology in favor of small tasks that can be done now without burning up battery life. “We think AI’s role is not to replace our users but to empower them,” Apple software chief Craig Federighi said… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/11/apple-intelligence-apple-execs-explain-why-its-ai-is-different.html Apple soared 7.26% and hit an all-time high of 207.16 on Tuesday because the company invoked AI, and possibly aggressive share repurchasing. Tesla sank as much as 3%. @elonmusk: It’s patently absurd that Apple isn’t smart enough to make their own AI yet is somehow capable of ensuring that OpenAI will protect your security & privacy! Apple has no clue what’s actually going on once they hand your data over to OpenAI. They’re selling you down the river. @t1alpha: AAPL is driving 35% of the bullish momentum in SPX today, while the equal weight index is lagging with a decline of -0.36%. This has resulted in a three-decade low in the correlation between SPX and its equal-weighted counterpart. Market cap distortion is in full effect. https://x.com/t1alpha/status/1800601950930813171 @profstonge: Another shock report from BLS as job openings crash by 750,000 in just 2 months. That brings the one-year loss to 2 million job openings. And it wipes out the job overhang we got when millions of Americans dropped out of the labor force during Covid lockdowns. We already lost the workers. And now we’ve lost the jobs. What Are the Margins of Error in the BLS Monthly Jobs Reports? The 3-month 90 percent confidence level is +- 207,300. (2023) The 1-year 90 percent confidence level is +- 377,500. (2023) QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) is a count of Unemployment Insurance (UI) administrative records submitted by 11.9 million establishments. That’s about 99 percent of the data. Nonfarm Payrolls are are from the Establishment Survey (CES). The sample survey was 666,000 individual worksites in 2023. That’s about 5.6 percent of the data. QCEW will be far more accurate than the BLS monthly convolutions but QCEW lags CES by about 5 months… Quarter-Over-Quarter Notes For 2023 Q3, the CES report shows a gain of 3,000. QCEW says the loss is 400,000. The discrepancy is 403,000. For 2023 Q4, the CES report shows a gain of 1,424,000. QCEW shows a gain of 820,000. The discrepancy is 604,000… https://mishtalk.com/economics/what-are-the-margins-of-error-in-the-bls-monthly-jobs-reports/ In other words, trillions of $$ of financial instruments are traded on highly unreliable BLS data. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index – May 2024 Report The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the highest reading of the year in May at 90.5, a 0.8-point increase but still the 29th month below the historical average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose nine points to 85, the highest reading since November 2020. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April and the top business problem among owners… Inflation: Unadjusted, 12 percent (down 1 point) reported lower average selling prices and 40 percent (down 1 point) reported higher average prices. Price hikes were most frequent in the retail (55 percent higher, 6 percent lower), finance (50 percent higher, 3 percent lower), construction (42 percent higher, 9 percent lower), manufacturing (42 percent higher, 12 percent lower), and services (37 percent higher, 6 percent lower) sectors. Seasonally adjusted, a net 28 percent plan price hikes in May (up 2 points)… https://www.nfib.com/surveys/small-business-economic-trends/ @MichaelMOTTCM: Given the NFIB inflation data today, I don’t see how the CPI will tick down to 0.1% tomorrow, but we will find out. (Who would trust the BLS to publish real inflation data?) @BobEUnlimited: While market based rents get focus, it is notable that there hasn’t been close to the same moderation in the ATRR (All Tenant Regressed Rent Index), which is a better tracker of CPI. Further the *level* of market based rents remains well above ATRR, suggesting pressure on ATRR growth to remain elevated ahead. https://x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1800576981689581732 @NorthmanTrader: What prompted the geniuses at the Fed to buy $1.7 trillion in MBS during a pandemic supply constrained housing market causing massive housing price inflation remains an unaccounted for question. And after that they ripped rates higher trying to fix their idiocy making housing even more unaffordable. And that constrained supply even further as people stayed in locked in lower rates keeping prices elevated & rent inflation high. They caused this with 15 years of overly easy money policies leaving an entire generation of young people priced out of the housing market. And now they’re whining about inflation being still too high, the very inflation they caused and are causing. What does it take for Fed officials to get fired given the immense damage they have caused? Why is society still putting up with these unelected dilettantes? https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1800498920952373250 HANDLING HARDSHIP – Data on Economic Insecurity Among Amazon Warehouse Workers 53% OF WORKERS EXPERIENCED ONE OR MORE FORMS OF FOOD INSECURITY in the previous three months. 48% OF WORKERS EXPERIENCED ONE OR MORE FORMS OF HOUSING INSECURITY in the previous three months. MORE THAN HALF (56%) HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO PAY ALL THEIR BILLS without a remaining balance in the previous three months. ONE-THIRD OF WORKERS (33%) HAVE USED ONE OR MORE PUBLICLY FUNDED ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS in the previous three months, including 23% who have used the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)… https://cued.uic.edu/wp-content/uploads/sites/219/2024/05/Handling-Hardship-Final_May2024.pdf Positive aspects of previous session Apple carried Fangs higher; the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new all-time highs. Bonds rallied sharply after a good 10-year auction. Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined sharply during morning NYSE trading Nvidia declined as much as 2.5% on post-split (10-1) selling European political concerns negatively impacted European and early US trading Ambiguous aspects of previous session Were informed traders buying stuff ahead of CPI and Fed Day? How much more fallout will there be from the EU Parliamentary Elections shock? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5359.51 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5375.95, 5327.25 Biden to ban medical debt from credit reports in latest attempt to boost election hopes https://t.co/DfdhSJEHvX Biden student loan handouts get approval from just 3 in 10 Americans https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-student-loan-handouts-get-approval-just-3-10-americans UAW President Shawn Fain under investigation by federal court-appointed monitor The monitor alleged that Fain and other union leaders attempted to interfere with the investigation. Neil Barofsky is leading the investigation into whether Fain abused his power as head of the union in violation of a 2020 consent decree between the UAW and the U.S. Department of Justice that prevented a full federal takeover of the union… https://t.co/UjcxbxeMAd Hamas says it accepts UN ceasefire resolution, but Blinken an obstacle to negotiations Osama Hamdan, another senior Hamas leader… said the UN resolution has flaws and that Secretary of State Antony Blinken “is one of the obstacles to reaching an agreement because he acts solely according to ‘Israel’s’ wishes.”… (The irony of Hamas calling Blinken an Israel stooge is startling!) https://www.foxnews.com/world/hamas-says-accepts-un-ceasefire-resolution-blinken-obstacle-negotiations Blinken announces more than $400M in new humanitarian aid for Palestinians in Gaza https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/11/politics/antony-blinken-gaza-aid-humanitarian/index.html @Osint613: The Wall Street Journal Reveals Sinwar’s Calculations – The Wall Street Journal has unveiled correspondence between Hxmas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza and his colleagues in Qatar. Sinwar expressed a callous disregard for human life, calculating that continued fighting and civilian deaths would further his military and political objectives. In his communication, Sinwar wrote to Ismail Haniyeh that the death of their children and other Palestinians serves as “the lifeblood of the nation.” Regarding the mas*sacre on October 7, Sinwar claimed that “things got out of control.” The US lifts a ban on sending weapons to a controversial Ukrainian military unit The Azov Brigade is among Ukraine’s most effective and popular fighting units but it has been dogged by its origins as a volunteer battalion that drew fighters from far-right circles and criticism for some of its tactics. The U.S. had banned the regiment from using American weapons, citing the neo-Nazi ideology of some of its founders… https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-russia-war-us-weapons-azov-a3a555670bedeae2022900621d79aba7 Today is Fed Day and May CPI. No change in Fed rate policy is expected. The unknown are the changes in Fed officials’ forecasts. These academics tend to be wrong more than right. However, they have been very bad in recent months and years. So, Fed officials might be more guarded in their forecasts and projections. PS – They know if they allow inflation to surge in coming months, the political pressure to restructure and punish the Fed will be extreme. After the market reacts to the FOMC Communique, trading usually gets quiet in the minutes before Powell’s Press Conference. The FOMC Communique is unlikely to be dovish. But if it is more hawkish than expected, bulls will hope that Powell will mitigate the hawkish communique with dovish remarks. He has done just this regularly. Plus, now he needs to save his position by keeping Trump away. NQMs are +7.00; ESMs are -.75; USMs are -1/32; and gold is +5.50 at 20:30 ET. Expected economic data: May CPI 0.1% m/m & 3.4% y/y, Core 0.3% m/m & 3.5% y/y; May Budget Statement -$275.0B; FOMC Communique 14:00 ET, Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5195; 100-day MA: 5126; 150-day MA: 4960; 200-day MA: 4807 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,750; 100-day MA: 38,763; 150-day MA: 37,955; 200-day MA: 36,936 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5375.33 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4750.24 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5100.57 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5264.40 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5337.15 triggers a sell signal Hunter Biden Convicted of Gun Charges (all 3) by Jury in Delaware Trial – BBG 11:16 ET (2 counts related to lying on a gun permit, denying he was a drug user. 1 count of possessing a gun while being a drug user. He faces 25 years in prison.) @paulsperry_: One of the Delaware jurors said Hunter Biden’s lawyer Abbe Lowell’s decision to put his daughter Naomi on the stand was a “bad mistake.” “Everybody felt really bad about Naomi,” he said, adding most felt “sorry” for her having to testify regarding her father’s drug use. @KarluskaP: You can’t make this up – Biden is scheduled to speak at a gun control event this afternoon. Fox: Biden fails to mention son’s gun conviction in address on firearms safety @greg_price11: Biden in less than a minute: Claims he was a professor at UPenn, which he never was – Claims he taught a constitutional law class on the second amendment, which he never did – Says that you couldn’t own a cannon when 2A was implemented, which you could – And ends by failing miserably to say the phrase “the tree of liberty is watered with the blood of patriots” https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1800601727789322578 @RNCResearch: Biden claims Republicans want to ban the “AFT” — a government agency that does not exist. https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1800600742081757358 @albamonica: President Biden: “As I said last week, I am the President, but I am also a Dad. Jill and I love our son, and we are so proud of the man he is today… I will accept the outcome of this case and will continue to respect the judicial process as Hunter considers an appeal…” https://x.com/albamonica/status/1800558881309151410 @ChadPergram: (GOP Rep.) Comer: Hunter Biden’s sweetheart plea deal was smoked out after scrutiny by a federal judge. Today’s verdict is a step toward accountability but until the Department of Justice investigates everyone involved in the Bidens’ corrupt influence peddling schemes that generated over $18 million in foreign payments to the Biden family, it will be clear department officials continue to cover for the Big Guy, Joe Biden. @BuckSexton: Hunter is a convicted felon in the gun charge, but his most serious crimes are money laundering and selling out his country to China, which directly implicate his father Joe- so those charges will never be brought. @C__Herridge: Backbone of special counsel gun case was Hunter Biden’s laptop user data. Pending CA tax case poses significant, potential legal jeopardy for Hunter + immediate family, calls him a “lobbyist” References to Ukraine, China strongly suggest investigators exploring potential FARA violations. https://www.justice.gov/sco-weiss/media/1327746/dl?inline GOP Sen. @SenTomCotton: Remember, Biden’s Department of Justice tried to give Hunter a sweetheart plea deal until it blew up under questioning from the judge. DOJ then charged him with gun and tax crimes—not illegal foreign lobbying—to avoid exposing Joe Biden’s role in Hunter’s influence peddling. Hunter may be guilty of these crimes, but so are Joe Biden and DOJ of political corruption. Trump Campaign on Hunter verdict: “This trial has been nothing more than a distraction from the real crimes of the Biden Crime Family, which has raked in tens of millions of dollars from China, Russia and Ukraine. Crooked Joe Biden’s reign over the Biden Family Criminal Empire is all coming to an end on November 5th, and never again will a Biden sell government access for personal profit.” Republicans mock Biden after he appears to freeze at festive Juneteenth WH concert: ‘Lights on but no one’s home’ https://t.co/4kE3LS1vTN @Travis_4_Trump: The longer you watch, the crazier this video gets. Kamala teaching her white husband how to dance, him trying to fit in, Biden being frozen, the man in the dress. This video is wild! https://x.com/Travis_4_Trump/status/1800361106520604994 @RNCResearch: BIDEN (in his angry voice): “…since the founding of our ideals that we don’t know fully what American soil is.” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1800335243204833714 @alx: Biden: I grew up in a black church. Also Biden (confused and dazed while people celebrate) https://x.com/alx/status/1616084172266958849 Perhaps Biden was so numb at the Juneteenth celebration because he was petrified that the people at the event would remember his history of racist remarks and being buddy of segregationist politicians. Biden’s History of Getting Away with Racist Remarks –https://www.heritage.org/progressivism/commentary/bidens-history-getting-away-racist-remarks Top pollster (Nate Silver) suggests it may be time for Biden to drop out of 2024 presidential race as approval rating hits ‘all-time low’ https://trib.al/PMJ2fT6 @TheBabylonBee: Biden Asks Why Europe Didn’t Just Arrest Conservative Candidates Before Election https://buff.ly/4aYoEsq CBS’ Margaret Brennan shocked that most Americans back deporting illegal immigrants https://trib.al/j2a80qN Laughing Kamala Harris calls Supreme Court abortion decision ‘f***ed up’ and reveals why she is dropping more f-bombs and waking up at 3am (Election angst) https://trib.al/NNyWyu2 (Ladies & Gentlemen, the VPOTUS! Makes you proud to be an American!) WaPo: Democratic efforts to lure young voters include beer and birth control (Not a parody!) The donor-funded experiments target younger voters in major metropolitan areas of a few key states who, if they do vote, tend to favor Democrats… WSJ Editorial Board: The Secret Supreme Court Tapes A political activist infiltrated a gala to try provoking Justice Alito and his wife. Lauren Windsor attended a dinner last week for the Supreme Court Historical Society, where she undertook small talk while pretending to be a diehard religious conservative. The only actual news from her surreptitious recordings is that Justice Samuel Alito’s wife corroborated that he isn’t responsible for whatever flags have flown at his homes. “The feminazis believe that he should control me,” Martha-Ann Alito says, in audio Ms. Windsor posted online. “So they’ll go to hell. He never controls me.”… https://www.wsj.com/articles/samuel-alito-martha-ann-alito-lauren-windsor-supreme-court-historical-society-tapes-19771448 | |
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING
SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY
DAY
harveyorganblog.com 
