JUNE 21 BLOG//MASSIVE RAID ON GOLD AND SILVER AS LAW AND ORDER DOES NOT EXIST IN THE USA//EUROPEAN PMI’S PLUMMET//EUROPEAN CMBS TRANCHE AAA SUFFERS SERIOUS LOSSES//UPDATES ON ISRAEL VS HAMAS, ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH AND VACCINE INJURY REPORTS//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 46 661 C JP MORGAN 10 690 C ABN AMRO 4 4 737 C ADVANTAGE 7 57 880 H CITIGROUP 73 905 C ADM 1 991 H CME 78
TOTAL: 140 140 MONTH TO DATE: 30,281
ACCESS MARKET
JPMorgan stopped 0/140
FOR JUNE 2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 140 NOTICES FOR 14,000 OZ or 0.4354 TONNES
total notices so far: 30,281 contracts for 3,028,100 Oz (94.186 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :1318 for 6.590 million oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A MAMMOTH GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT OF 8.34 TONNES
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.65TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.65 TONNES
SLV//
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.15 AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 434.939 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 434.939 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1027 CONTRACTS TO 175,578 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SURPRISING STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN OF $1.17 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD ZERO LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET LOSS OF 88 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION. WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 1662 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY JUNE 4 AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, JUNE 7
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 1662 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT THUS LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND TODAY;S TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.17) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 88 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.17.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 939 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.830 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 75,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP.
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 6.685 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1662 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 619 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 14 DAYS, total 14,549 contracts: OR 72.745 MILLION OZ (1039 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 72.745 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 72.745 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1027 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 939 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.830 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 75,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JUNE 6.685 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 88 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1662 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND SOME NET LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (1662) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,078 OI CONTRACTS TO 457,423 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1422 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (13,078 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $23.60 IN PRICE/THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 89.94 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 6200 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD ON THE THIS SIDE OF THE POND
NEW STANDING 94.553 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $23.60 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 15,652 OI CONTRACTS (48.68 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2574 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,423
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,652 CONTRACTS WITH 13,078 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2574 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 15,652 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1325 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2574 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 13,078 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15,652 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 88.761 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.1928 TONNES
//NEW STANDING /JUNE 94.553 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1325 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 43,699 CONTRACTS OR 4,369,900 OZ OR 135.92 TONNES IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3121 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 14 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 135.92 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 135.92 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 135.92 tonnes HEADING FOR A STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 1027 CONTRACTS OI TO 175,578 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 939 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 939 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 939 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1027 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 939 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 88 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.440 MILLION OZ
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.30 PTS OR 0.24% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 306.80 PTS OR 1.67%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 36.59 OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.35%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2609 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2880/ Oil DOWN TO 81.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.52 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,078 CONTRACTS TO 457,423 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.60 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURSDAY WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2574 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST2574 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2574 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 15,652 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2574 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 13,078 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $17.25/THURSDAY COMEX
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 1325 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN THURSDAY’S TRADING
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (94.553 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 94.553 TONNES. THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $23.60 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 15,652 CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 48.68 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (89.94 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 62 CONTRACTS OR 6200 OZ (0.1928 TONNES)
NEW STANDING FOR JUNE: 94.360 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAININ PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $23.60
WE HAVE REMOVED 1422 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,652 CONTRACTS OR 1,565,200 OZ (48.68 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
30,281 notices 3,028100 oz 94,130 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Brinks 2218.419 oz (69 kilobars)
total deposit 2218.491 oz
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Delaware 2186.268 oz 68 kilobars
ii) Out of Brinks 3665.214 oz 114 kilobars
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 5851.482 0z 182 kilobars
Adjustments: 4 dealer to customer:
a) HSBC 234,102.895 oz
b) JPMorgan 7716.240 oz
c) Malca 14,202.293 oz
d) Manfra 64,862.002 oz
total adjusted 340,604.880 oz and this is a sign of extreme stress//10.59 tonnes
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 258 contracts having GAINED 42 contracts. We had 20 contracts served on Thursday so we gained 62 contracts or 6200 oz additional ounces will stand for gold at the comex as they underwent a queue jump to take delivery on this side of the pond.
JULY LOST 24 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2411
AUGUST GAINED 10,507 CONTRACTS UP TO 369,807 CONTRACTS
We had 140 contracts filed for today representing 14,000 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notice was issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1400 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for June /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (30,281) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (258 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (140 x 100 oz per contract( equals 3,039,900 OZ OR 94.553 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (30,281 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of June (258// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (140) x 100 oz which equals 3,039,900 oz (94.533 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE: 94.533 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. JUNE IS TRADITIONALLY THE 2ND HIGHEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR. FROM THIS POINT WE WILL GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,576,275 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,716,240( 240.006 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,764,208.266 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,043,243 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 187.97 tonnes //this is the lowest net registered in quite some time.
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUN 21/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JUNE 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
587,585.506 oz
Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
578m695.000 oz
manfra
No of oz served today (contracts)
3 CONTRACT(S) (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
19 contracts (0.095 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1318 Contracts (6.590 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into Manfra 578,695.000
total customer deposit 578,695,000oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 127.832million oz/296.815million or 42.90%
adjustment: 3 all customer to dealer
a) Brinks 274,448.610 oz
b) CNT 75,997.990
c) Delaware 5104.541 oz
Comex withdrawals: 1
i) out of Delaware 587,585.504 oz
total withdrawal: 5,87,585.504 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 63.429MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 296.815
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE/2024 OI: 22 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 40 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 55 NOTICES SERVED UP ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 15 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 75,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A CONSIDERABLE QUEUE JUMP TO WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 9145 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 61,183
AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 45 CONTRACTS TO 421
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 7520 CONTRACTS TO 94,182
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 173,343 HUMONGOUS /EQUALS 108% OF YEARLY SILVER PRODUCITON.
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1318 x 5,000 oz = 6.590 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE ((22) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2024 contract month: 1318 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (22)x number of notices served upon today minus (3)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 6.685 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 6.685 million oz.
There are 63.429 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.36 TONNES
MAY 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $53.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES
MAY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $32.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES
MAY 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $12,00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 838.54 TONNES
MAY 20 WITH GOLD UP $21.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 5.10 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 838.54 TONNES
MAY 17 WITH GOLD UP $31.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $7.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1.43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//NEW TOTAL 833.36 TONNES
MAY 15 WITH GOLD UP $34.90 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF .600 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/INVENTORY RISES TO 831.93 TONNES
MAY 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.10 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RISES TO 831.33 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 833.65 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
MAY 24 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A DEPOSIT OF .822 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 421.313 MILLION OZ
MAY 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.00 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.736 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLVINVENTORY INCREASES TO 420.491 MILLION OZ
MAY 22 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.66 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.41 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A DEPOSIT OF 3.792 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 422.227 MILLION OZ
MAY 20 WITH SILVER UP $1.28 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.005 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 418.435 MILLION OZ
MAY 17 WITH SILVER UP $1.37 TODAY: SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/A WITHDRAWAL OF 868,000 OZ FROM THE SLV// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 419.440 MILLION OZ
MAY 16 WITH SILVER DOWN 14 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV/ INVENTORY REMAINS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 15 WITH SILVER UP 101 CENTS TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.919 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV NVENTORY RESTS AT 420.308 MILLION OZ
MAY 14 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV;;INVENTORY RESTS AT 422.227 MILLION OZ
China’s recent attempt to secure a rare earth minerals stockpile ended in failure when a competitor stepped in to snag the deal…
Vital Metals, a mining firm based in Australia, announced Monday that minerals collected from its Saskatchewan-based Nechalacho Project will remain within Canadian borders.
“We were presented with a case of elevated interest for Canada,” Vital’s managing director Geordie Mark told The Northern Miner, later adding:
“This agreement highlights the strategic value and importance of the Nechalacho rare earths project and the prioritization of a rare earths value chain in Canada.”
According to Vital, the Nechalacho site in northern Canada could hold more than 200 million tons of rare earth elements (REEs), which are used in green energy production and weapons manufacturing. Right now, China dominates the industry despite its comparatively small natural stock, clinching 75% of the global market with only 35% of the global REE reserves.
“China was only able to establish such dominance over the REE industry in part because of lax environmental regulations,” said Harvard Independent Review’s Jaya Nayar.
“Low cost, high pollution methods enabled China to outpace competitors and create a stronghold in the international REE market.”
What’s pushing Canada to allow REE mining and reap the profits, despite environmental risks?
The answer lies within the Canadian critical minerals list, which includes REEs and 33 other elements/elemental groups deemed strategically and economically significant. A recent expansion of the list added high-purity iron, phosphorus, and silicon, which—like REEs and 20 other elements on the list—are key components of the green energy transition. This update, plus the last-minute swoop to protect REE supplies, gives a glimpse into the role “green” policy will play and foreshadows increasing pressure on component supply chains. If other countries follow Canada’s example, prices of related metals on that critical list—including cobalt, platinum group metals, REEs, silicon, and copper—could see significant boosts. That’s a bet Canada is placing early by securing its access to REEs while cutting China out of the deal.
The recent Canadian purchase from Vital is also part of a larger economic and political salvo led by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who told reporters there will be no reconciliation between Canada and China following accusations of election meddling. On the mining stage, Canada is marketing itself as a direct competitor to China, flaunting its enormous mineral reserves as an alternative source for wary European countries afraid to rely on Chinese producers. China’s dominance won’t be shaken by missing a single deal with the Australian firm, though the move certainly sends a message calculated to exacerbate already strained relations between China and the West.
As if its challenge weren’t clear enough, Canada recently joined the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines to conduct military exercises in the South China Sea. Tensions between the four countries are on the rise, and economics is the prime battlefield. With REEs as a strategic focus and green energy policies on the Western docket, nations may put pressure on each other by sanctioning or otherwise straining metals supply chains—a move strategists on both sides will surely consider. With two of the world’s largest holders of rare earths reserves vying for stockpiles, the pressure on consumer countries to pick sides is growing, and this new symptom of conflict in the metals market will likely boost REE and related metal prices as countries stock up while supplies last.
It’s not just rare earths that will see gains. Silver, though not deemed “critical,” is a component of electric vehicles and other “green” technologies that governments (and private investors) will likely snap up in anticipation of tighter supply. Stress on metals supply chains is part of gold’s lifeblood, suggesting higher prices for this metal as well.
Good news for investors looking to shoot straight for the heart: REE prices bottomed out last year, indicating they’re due for revival and primed for a low buy.
“I’ve seen forward-looking studies that … don’t even factor in demand from defense sectors that push [the global annual turnover for REEs] well over a trillion dollars by the time we reach 2050,” said Melissa Sanderson, a consultant at American Rare Earths. “It’s a good, strong market now, and it’s one that appears to have healthy legs under it.”
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
end
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS/
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.30 PTS OR 0.24% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 306.80 PTS OR 1.67%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 36.59 OR 0.09%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.35%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2609 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2880/ Oil DOWN TO 81.19 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.52 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSFRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2609
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2880
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.34 PTS OR 0.24 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 306.80 PTS OR 1.67%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 36.59 PTS OR 0.09 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.42 EURO FALLS TO 1.0687 DOWN 19 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.966 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.93 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.3675/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.906 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.303%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.577
3j Gold at $2361.00//Silver at: 30.20 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 24/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88,49
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.93/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.966% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8926 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9545 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.229 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.374 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.707 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.85…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.082 UP 2 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Fall, Tech Rally Fades Ahead Of Record $5 Trillion OpEx
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 08:19 AM
US futures were slightly lower, with tech companies indicating declines as the AI-fueled rally showed signs of fading, even as tech funds had their largest weekly inflow on record, which Bank of America’s Michael Harnett said hints at “AI capitulation.” As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.1%, with Nasdaq futures also in the red.
… which could “unclench” record $10 billion in dealer gamma and spark sharp market moves as “pins” expire.
Bond yields are 2-4bp lower this morning, reversing a move higher, after Europe’s ugly PMI prints (see below) which also pushed the EUR lower and the USD higher. Commodities are mixed; oil is modestly lower; base metals are higher. Today’s macro focus will be the flash PMIs at 9.45am ET; consensus expects a mfg print of 51.0 while the PMI-Srvcs is seen printing 54.0 survey vs. 54.8 prior.
In premarket trading, tech names are mostly lower: NVDA -1.8%, QCOM -71bps, MSFT -25bps and AAPL -23bps. Spirit AeroSystems jumped 4% after Reuters reported Boeing is nearing a deal to buy back the aircraft-parts supplier. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Abacus Life falls 21% after its offering of 10 million shares priced at $8 per share, representing an 18% discount to last close.
Gilead advances 3%, extending Thursday’s gains, after interim results from a trial of the firm’s drug lenacapavir showed 100% efficacy for the prevention of HIV in cisgender women.
Sarepta Therapeutics soars 37% after the FDA approved expanded use of the company’s gene therapy to treat children aged four and above with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
Smith & Wesson slips 3% after the gun maker said sales in its first quarter would be about 10% lower year over year.
Risk-off trades were also in vogue in Europe, where the fallout from French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call a snap election continued to make itself felt in the region’s economy. The yield on Germany’s benchmark 10-year bonds tumbled seven basis points after manufacturing and services PMI readings for Europe’s two biggest economies fell short of expectations. The rate on US Treasuries also declined, while the dollar held near a 2024 high after the PMI data, which underscored how French political risk is dragging on growth. Traders now see a second ECB cut by October and an 80% chance of a third this year, up from about 65% on Thursday.
Key numbers:
Euro Area Composite PMI (June, Flash): 50.8, missing consensus 52.5, last 52.2.
Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (June, Flash): 45.6, missing consensus 47.9, last 47.3.
Euro Area Services PMI (June, Flash): 52.6, missing consensus 53.4, last 53.2.
France Composite PMI (June, Flash): 48.2, missing consensus 49.4, last 48.9.
UK Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.7, missing consensus 53.0, last 53.0.
Macron’s shock call for a vote has stoked volatility in the region’s markets and left investors worried that an economic rebound could be snuffed out by far-right leaders, should they prevail in elections. European stock funds suffered their fifth week of outflows, according to Bank of America strategists, citing EPFR Global data.
“The most important problem for us is the economic outlook for the euro zone,” said Benoit Peloille, chief investment officer at Natixis Wealth Management. “It really poses a risk.”
And speaking of European stock markets, the Stoxx 600 was on course for its worst day this week, dropping 0.7%, with banks the worst performers, with construction and tech also falling. Here are the most notable European movers:
Zealand Pharma shares soar as much as 27% to a record high after the Danish drugmaker’s next-generation weight-loss compound petrelintide showed positive results in an early-stage trial, with analysts noting its impressive tolerability.
Britvic shares climb as much as 16% after its board unanimously rejected a second takeover proposal from Carlsberg. Shares in the UK beverage maker touch a record-high 1,176p, heading toward Carlsberg’s 1,250p/share offer.
RENK shares rise as much as 2.4% as analysts presented bullish takeaways from this week’s defense trade show Eurosatory, with Berenberg in particular, highlighting the strong demand outlook for the German defense company’s new ATREX transmission system.
Informa shares rise as much as 1.6% after the events and publishing firm reported 10.1% underlying revenue growth for the first five months of the year, likely beating consensus estimates that had been expecting around 8% growth in the first-half, Morgan Stanley said. The company maintained guidance that was raised in May.
ITV shares jump as much as 5.2%, most since March, as JPMorgan analysts say the British broadcaster’s advertising revenue in the current quarter will be much stronger than its previous guidance, thanks to a boost from the European Football Championship.
Kion shares fall as much as 9.7%, the steepest decline since October 2023. UBS (buy) lowers its price target on the German industrial firm, saying second-half order spikes are always tough to rely on.
REC Silicon shares drop as much as 15% after the company provided an update on its Washington facility’s delayed clean up process, which caused a setback in the delivery of product.
Intercos falls as much as 7.5% after holder Innovation Trust completed its accelerated bookbuilding offering of 6.5m shares at €15.20 a share, representing ~8.5% discount to last close.
Varta shares fall as much as 9.3%, the most in six weeks, after the company warned market conditions in the energy storage system market have deteriorated further, prompting it to lower its annual revenue goal.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks traded lower, led by losses in Hong Kong, as a global tech-driven rally showed signs of fatigue, while concerns persist over China’s economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, with TSMC, Samsung and Tencent among the biggest drags. Declines were also notable in South Korea and Taiwan, while a tumble in the Philippines’ main benchmark put it on course to enter a technical correction. For the week, the regional gauge is little changed. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped as much as 2% while mainland gauges also slid as Beijing is seen as reluctant to step up stimulus. US stocks fell overnight as the high-flying tech group led by Nvidia came under pressure amid signs of overheating.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing potential new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles to align the nation with actions taken by the US and European Union, Bloomberg reported. The government still has to make final decisions on how to proceed, but it’s likely to announce soon the start of public consultations on tariffs that would hit Chinese exports of EVs into Canada, according to officials. In May the US announced a plan to nearly quadruple tariffs on Chinese-manufactured electric vehicles, up to a final rate of 102.5%, while the European Union said last week it plans to increase tariffs to as high as 48% on some vehicles.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, pulling back from near this year’s high ahead of fresh data later today. Dollar demand over the Tokyo benchmark fix saw spot offers attached to 159 strikes — worth a collective $2.05 billion and expiring between today and June 26 — get taken out, according to an Asia-based FX trader. European political and fiscal risk, an easier stance from BoE and a steady slide in JPY have countered the recent run of softer US data, Tim Riddell, director of strategy at Westpac Banking Corp. wrote in a note. “Despite remaining contained within its range, the sharpness of recent DXY moves suggests that a directional move may be developing.”
EURUSD, down 0.13%, which has been under pressure since French President Emmanuel Macron’s surprise decision to call a snap election, fell to its lowest in a week.
GBPUSD +0.1% to 1.2670 after better than expected May UK retail sales data, including revisions. The gain was brief and the cable is now little changed.
In rates, treasuries hold an advance that was led by core European rates, with German bonds outperforming after soft PMI data across Europe and US PMIs due later Friday. US long-end tenors lag slightly, extending the recent steepening in 5s30s spread beyond Thursday’s highs. German 10-year yields fell 6bps to 2.38% while treasury yields were richer by 2bp to 4bp across the curve with front-end- and belly-led gains steepening 5s30s spread by around 1bp on the day; 10-year yields trade around 4.225%, richer by 3bp vs Thursday’s close with bunds outperforming by 4bp in the sector
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.2% to trade near $81.15 a barrel. Spot gold rises ~$6 to $2,366/oz. Bitcoin continues to slip and now sits beneath USD 64k, with Ethereum also slipping below USD 3.5k.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am) and May Leading index and existing home sales (10am). No Fed officials scheduled to speak during the session
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 5,465.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 516.50
MXAP down 0.5% to 179.78
MXAPJ down 0.7% to 568.66
Nikkei little changed at 38,596.47
Topix little changed at 2,724.69
Hang Seng Index down 1.7% to 18,028.52
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,998.14
Sensex little changed at 77,422.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,795.97
Kospi down 0.8% to 2,784.26
German 10Y yield -5 bps at 2.37%
Euro down 0.1% to $1.0687
Brent Futures down 0.4% to $85.33/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,366.36
US Dollar Index up 0.15% to 105.74
Top Overnight News
Japan’s core national CPI eases to +2.1% in May, down from +2.4% in Apr and below the Street’s +2.2% forecast. RTRS
China’s 618 online shopping festival saw sales fall Y/Y for the first time, the latest indication of cooling consumer demand and price discounting. FT
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government is preparing potential new tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles to align Canada with actions taken by the US and European Union. BBG
Europe’s flash PMIs show significant weakness in June, with manufacturing dropping to 45.6 (down from 47.3 in May) and services cooling to 52.6 (down from 53.2 in May), although inflationary pressures eased along with growth (which is a small silver lining). RTRS
UK retail sales for May come in solidly above expectations, rising 2.9% M/M (vs. the Street +1.8%), and Apr was revised higher. WSJ
Trump sees a surge in campaign inflows (his recent conviction helped to fuel donations), all but erasing Biden’s financial advantage. WaPo
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said policy makers will be able to cut rates if inflation continues to cool as it did last month. But Richmond Fed boss Thomas Barkin said he needs further clarity. BBG
Bank capital rules: Fed, OCC, and FDIC at odds over how to release the revised B3 endgame rules (the Fed wants to allow the industry to comment while the OCC and FDIC would prefer to just publish the rules for implementation). RTRS
Spirit is nearing a deal to be purchased by Boeing after Airbus-related work issues were resolved, and a formal announcement could arrive within days or weeks. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with sentiment subdued after the lacklustre handover from Wall St where tech underperformed and risk appetite was sapped as participants reflected on higher yields and soft data releases ahead of quad-witching. ASX 200 was rangebound with upside restricted after weak Australian flash PMI data including a steeper contraction in manufacturing. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively after softer-than-expected National CPI data and weakening PMIs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong as the local benchmark dipped beneath 18,000 amid losses in property and tech, while the mainland conformed to the glum mood amid ongoing trade-related headwinds with Canada also preparing a tariffs plan on Chinese electric vehicles.
Top Asian News
Canada is reportedly preparing a tariffs plan on Chinese electric vehicles, according to Bloomberg.
Japanese PM Kishida is to resume utility and maintain gasoline subsidies, according to FNN. It was separately reported that Japan’s government is in final preparations to adopt additional steps to ease the burden of higher electricity and gas prices, according to NHK.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said the inclusion to the US monitoring list does not mean that Japan’s foreign exchange policy is a problem, while he added that stable forex levels are desirable and it is important that forex rates reflect fundamentals.
BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida says Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs; underlying inflation likely to gradually accelerate. Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economic and price outlook remains high. Must be vigilant to financial, FX market developments and their impact on Japan’s economy and prices. BoJ will decide specifics on bond tapering plan and size of reducing in bond buying will be significant. Japan’s financial system remains stable as a whole. BoJ will adjust degree of monetary easing if economy and prices move in line with forecasts.
BoJ to hold meetings with bond market participants on bond-tapering plan on July 9-10th
China’s Commerce Ministry says EU continues to escalate trade friction; may “trigger a trade war”; responsibility lies entirely with the EU side; hopes EU would meet China halfway
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.4%) are lower across the board, though with price action fairly rangebound, and generally unreactive to the downbeat EZ PMI data. European sectors are mostly lower, and hold a slight defensive bias, with Utilities and Healthcare towards the top of the pile, whilst Banks are towards the bottom of the pile, alongside Tech. US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are very modestly lower, continuing some of the losses seen in the prior session, and in fitting with the broader sentiment in Europe.
Top European News
UK Conservative MPs have accused the BoE of making a “political decision” after deciding to hold rates, according to The Telegraph.
European PMIs
French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 48.2 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 48.9); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 48.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.3); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 45.3 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 46.4)
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.6 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.4); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 53.5 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 54.2); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 43.4 vs. Exp. 46.4 (Prev. 45.4). “This should be a further reason for the ECB to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts.”
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.8 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.2); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 45.6 vs. Exp. 47.9 (Prev. 47.3); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 52.6 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.2)
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.3 (Prev. 51.2); Flash Services PMI (Jun) 51.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 52.9); Flash Composite PMI (Jun) 51.7 vs. Exp. 53.1 (Prev. 53.0). “Meanwhile, from an inflation perspective, stubbornly persistent service sector inflation – a major barrier to lower interest rates – remains evident in the survey, but should at least cool further from the current 5.7% pace in coming months. However, companies’ costs are rising, most notably in manufacturing, where shipping costs in particular are spiking again and adding to a renewed rise in inflationary pressures from goods.”
FX
DXY is slightly firmer amid the risk aversion which emanated from yesterday’s US session, with the index also benefiting from the weaker EUR following the downbeat EZ PMIs.
EUR is softer after France, Germany and the EZ all reported soft PMI figures, though with the accompanying release suggesting “the HCOB PMI do not provide ammunition for another rate cut in July by the ECB.” EUR/USD sits in a 1.0672-0720 range after testing levels near the 14th June low.
GBP is also losing vs the Dollar, with the hotter-than-expected UK Retail Sales providing fleeting upside for Cable, before edging lower ahead of the region’s own PMI data, which was mixed. Cable fell from 1.2649 to 1.2630 before paring the entirety of the move and lifting incrementally to 1.2653.
JPY is flat in the European morning following APAC weakness which saw softer-than-expected Japanese CPI and weaker PMI. USD/JPY briefly topped 159.00 to a 159.12 peak (vs low 158.68), with European strength possibly emanating from the risk aversion and a pullback in bond yields.
Mild divergence between the Antipodeans but largely flat trade with upside capped by the risk aversion (and decline in base metals).
Fixed Income
USTs are modestly firmer and at the top-end of 110-12+ to 110-23 parameters into US PMI data and Fed’s Barkin.
Bunds are firmer, with price action dominated by EZ PMIs; French numbers missed and remained in contraction with the election perhaps factoring, with Germany and the EZ-wide figure also lower than expected. The metrics have lifted Bunds from c. 132.50 to a peak of 133.00, before stabilising around 132.80.
Gilts opened modestly firmer with impetus from benchmarks more broadly somewhat capped by a hawkish UK retail sales number. Tracking EGBs into the UK’s own PMIs which came in mixed and saw a knee-jerk spike to 99.14, before swiftly paring to below 99.00.
Commodities
Crude is lower amid the stronger Dollar and the broadly downbeat risk tone across the market which reverberated from a lacklustre US performance. WTI August found some support at USD 81/bbl while Brent dipped under USD 85.50/bbl.
Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold holding onto gains despite the stronger Dollar, with newsflow also relatively quiet this morning. Spot silver lags following yesterday’s outperformance. Spot gold resides near yesterday’s peak (USD 2,365.59/oz).
Copper futures pulled back from yesterday’s advances with demand sapped by the subdued risk tone.
Goldman Sachs sees minimal impact from new EU restrictions on Russian LNG. GS says the latest EU package of sanctions impacting Russia bans the transshipment of Russian LNG by member countries, but the measures do not block EU member states from importing Russian LNG.
Citi says crude markets are showing tightness, sees Brent picking up in Q3, but notes opportunities to sell into the strength
Global crude steel output rises 1.5% to 165.1mln tonnes in May 2024 vs May 2023; China crude steel output rises 2.7% Y/Y to 92.9mln tonnes in May 2024
Geopolitics: Middle East
“The IDF wants to declare the end of the war after the Rafah operation”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press Haaretz
Israel will reportedly step up attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders in a bid to force Hamas to accept the ceasefire deal, according to a senior Israeli official cited by The Times.
US Secretary of State Blinken underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation in Lebanon and reaching a diplomatic resolution in the meeting with Israeli officials, while he emphasised the need to take additional steps to surge humanitarian aid into Gaza and plan for post-conflict governance, security, and reconstruction, according to the State Department.
Geopolitics: Other
UK is reportedly at loggerheads with the US and Germany over Ukraine joining NATO as the US and Germany have derailed a European plan to grant Ukraine an “irreversible” path to NATO membership and instead support offering Ukraine a lighter commitment to membership of the military alliance, according to The Telegraph.
Russian President Putin said Russia is ready to start talks on a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict even as early as tomorrow but all parties should study its peace proposals and it is up to them when they bother to do it, while he added Russia never rejected the idea of negotiations and that the Ukrainian side has forbidden itself to negotiate, according to TASS.
Japan imposed sanctions against China-based companies in connection to the Ukraine war with sanctions placed on China-based Yilufa Electronics and Shenzhen 5G High-Tech Innovation Co.
South Korean military fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers crossed the border on Thursday, according to Yonhap.
US Event Calendar
09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 54.0, prior 54.8
June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.0, prior 51.3
June S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.5, prior 54.5
10:00: May Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.0%, prior -1.9%
10:00: May Leading Index, est. -0.3%, prior -0.6%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Not to depress you but enjoy today while you can if you’re in the northern hemisphere as tomorrow will have a little less daylight as a slippery dark slope to Xmas begins. I’m currently writing this on the longest day in Watford in the middle of a large longstanding annual 2-day DB Macro conference. Maybe we should have held it at Stonehenge this year given the date.
On that theme it feels like you have to go back to the Neolithic period to find a day when the US significantly underperformed Europe but that’s what happened yesterday. The S&P 500 (-0.25%) opened around a third of a percent higher and above 5500 for the first time before slipping as the session progressed with even Nvidia, on its first day as the largest company in the world, slipping from +3.82% at the day’s early highs to close -3.54% and losing its largest company crown back to Microsoft . The recent rally in US stocks has been very narrow with only 2% of the 503 constituents currently at all-time highs and 7% at one-month lows. So we are seemingly in the hands of tech and particular Nvidia at the moment.
Over the other side of the Atlantic, sentiment was helped by a strong bond auction in France , suggesting that investors were still willing to buy OATs despite the political uncertainty. But on top of that, there was growing hope among investors about the chance of rate cuts ahead, as the Swiss National Bank marginally surprised markets by cutting rates for the second time this year, and the Bank of England made some dovish noises as well. So that offered fresh signs that the global monetary policy cycle was turning, with further rate cuts on the horizon.
That narrative got going after the SNB’s decision, where they delivered a 25bp cut in their policy rate to 1.25%. A narrow majority of economists in Bloomberg’s survey had expected them to remain on hold. They also lowered their inflation forecasts compared to March, which now see it falling from 1.3% in 2024, to 1.1% in 2025, and 1.0% in 2026. In turn, the Swiss Franc weakened by -0.80% against the US Dollar yesterday, making it the worst-performing G10 currency on the day.
That was then followed up by a dovish hold from the Bank of England. They kept the Bank Rate at 5.25% as expected, and the decision was split 7-2 with the two preferring a 25bp rate cut. But even though 7 wanted to stay on hold, the statement pointed out that for some of that group, “ the policy decision at this meeting was finely balanced ”, and investors dialled up the chance of a rate cuts in response. For instance, the chance of a cut by the next meeting in August rose from 34% the previous day to 62% by the close. That helped gilts to outperform, with the 10yr yield down -1.1bps on the day to 4.055%.
European markets got a further boost from the situation in France, where the Treasury raised €10.5bn in an auction of 3-8yr debt. That auction had been in the spotlight, as there were concerns about how much demand there’d be given the political uncertainty. But in reality it went smoothly, and the Franco-German 10yr spread came down by -2.2bps on the day to 77bps. That supportive backdrop helped French equities to recover as well, and the CAC 40 (+1.34%) posted its strongest daily performance since January.
That strength was echoed across European equities, where the STOXX 600 (+0.93%), the DAX (+1.03%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.37%) all posted solid gains. Over in the US, the S&P 500 (-0.25%) weakness after the holiday was driven by the information technology sector (-1.60%). The NASDAQ (-0.79%) and the Magnificent 7 (-0.85%) in turn posted sizeable declines. In addition to Nvidia’s reversal, Apple fell -2.15%, allowing Microsoft (-0.14%) to sneak back in as the world’s most valuable company. The equity mood was slightly more positive otherwise, with 58% of S&P 500 constituents higher on the day. Energy stocks led on the upside (+1.86%), amid a boost from the latest rise in oil prices, with Brent crude (+0.75%) closing at a 7-week high of $85.71/bbl.
The US session was punctuated by largely weaker data releases yesterday. For example, the continuing jobless claims were up to 1.828m in the week ending June 8 (vs. 1.810m expected), which is their highest level since January. And the initial jobless claims were at 238k over the week ending June 15 (vs. 235k expected), which pushed the 4-week moving average up to a 9-month high of 232.75k. However, note that claims can be distorted this time of year by the timing of the end of the school year so we’re not yet reading too much into the recent climb. At the same time though, data also showed that housing starts fell to an annualised rate of 1.277m in May (vs. 1.370m expected), which is their lowest rate since June 2020. But even with the weaker data, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate only ticked down a tenth in the latest update, and now points to annualised growth in Q2 at +3.0%.
That subdued data failed to stop sovereign bond yields from moving higher yesterday, which took place on both sides of the Atlantic. Indeed, yields on 10yr Treasuries were up +3.7bps to 4.26%, whilst those on bunds (+2.8bps), OATs (+0.6bps) and BTPs (+0.8bps) all moved higher as well. The only major exceptions to that were in the UK (-1.1bps) and Switzerland (-5.0bps), who both had dovish-leaning central bank decisions yesterday.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading lower this morning with Chinese stocks the major underperformers. The Hang Seng (-1.72%) is leading losses while the CSI (-0.60%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.40%) are also edging lower. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-0.88%) is also drifting lower in early trade with the Nikkei 225 (-0.12%) swinging between gains and losses after Japan’s inflation data (more on this below). S&P 500 (+0.02%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.08%) futures are slightly higher.
Coming back to Japan, consumer prices ex fresh food accelerated for the first time in a couple of months, advancing +2.5% y/y in May (v/s +2.2% in April, +2.6% consensus) even if it was slightly below consensus. Headline consumer inflation also advanced at a faster pace in May, rising +2.8% y/y (+2.9% expected) and compared with the +2.5% recorded in April, partly due to higher energy bills. However, the core-core CPI, which strips away both energy and fresh food, increased +2.1% y/y in May (v/s +2.2% expected) down from a +2.4% gain in the previous month.
Separately, reports showed that Japan’s factory activity expanded for a second straight month in June but the pace of growth eased. The au Jibun Bank flash manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 in June slightly down from 50.4 in May. Meanwhile, services sector activity contracted in June for the first time in about two years amid subdued new business as the flash services PMI slipped to 49.8 in June from 53.8 in May.
In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.03%) is trading around 159 versus the dollar, its weakest level in two-months and near the lows again, thus ramping up expectations that the authorities will again intervene in the FX market. Meanwhile, Masato Kanda, the top currency diplomat, reiterated that the authorities are prepared to take necessary measures if there are any highly volatile moves in currency markets.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the flash PMIs for June from the US and Europe. Otherwise in the US we’ll get existing home sales for May and the Conference Board’s leading index for May, and in the UK there’s retail sales for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Nagel and Simkus.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Subdued risk tone following downbeat EZ PMIs with equities softer & bonds bid – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 06:12 AM
Equities are subdued amid a broader risk aversion following the downbeat EZ PMI data
France, Germany and the EZ-wide figure all reported lower-than-expected PMI data, which has led to outperformance in Bunds and slight pressure in the EUR
Dollar is incrementally firmer, USD/JPY went as high as 159.12 before paring back towards 158.80 following the European data
Crude is rangebound, base metals suffer from the subdued risk tone
Looking ahead, US Manufacturing & Services PMI, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Schnabel, and quad-witching
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.4%) are lower across the board, though with price action fairly rangebound, and generally unreactive to the downbeat EZ PMI data.
European sectors are mostly lower, and hold a slight defensive bias, with Utilities and Healthcare towards the top of the pile, whilst Banks are towards the bottom of the pile, alongside Tech.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are very modestly lower, continuing some of the losses seen in the prior session, and in fitting with the broader sentiment in Europe.
DXY is slightly firmer amid the risk aversion which emanated from yesterday’s US session, with the index also benefiting from the weaker EUR following the downbeat EZ PMIs.
EUR is softer after France, Germany and the EZ all reported soft PMI figures, though with the accompanying release suggesting “the HCOB PMI do not provide ammunition for another rate cut in July by the ECB.” EUR/USD sits in a 1.0672-0720 range after testing levels near the 14th June low.
GBP is also losing vs the Dollar, with the hotter-than-expected UK Retail Sales providing fleeting upside for Cable, before edging lower ahead of the region’s own PMI data, which was mixed. Cable fell from 1.2649 to 1.2630 before paring the entirety of the move and lifting incrementally to 1.2653.
JPY is flat in the European morning following APAC weakness which saw softer-than-expected Japanese CPI and weaker PMI. USD/JPY briefly topped 159.00 to a 159.12 peak (vs low 158.68), with European strength possibly emanating from the risk aversion and a pullback in bond yields.
Mild divergence between the Antipodeans but largely flat trade with upside capped by the risk aversion (and decline in base metals).
USTs are modestly firmer and at the top-end of 110-12+ to 110-23 parameters into US PMI data and Fed’s Barkin.
Bunds are firmer, with price action dominated by EZ PMIs; French numbers missed and remained in contraction with the election perhaps factoring, with Germany and the EZ-wide figure also lower than expected. The metrics have lifted Bunds from c. 132.50 to a peak of 133.00, before stabilising around 132.80.
Gilts opened modestly firmer with impetus from benchmarks more broadly somewhat capped by a hawkish UK retail sales number. Tracking EGBs into the UK’s own PMIs which came in mixed and saw a knee-jerk spike to 99.14, before swiftly paring to below 99.00.
Crude is lower amid the stronger Dollar and the broadly downbeat risk tone across the market which reverberated from a lacklustre US performance. WTI August found some support at USD 81/bbl while Brent dipped under USD 85.50/bbl.
Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold holding onto gains despite the stronger Dollar, with newsflow also relatively quiet this morning. Spot silver lags following yesterday’s outperformance. Spot gold resides near yesterday’s peak (USD 2,365.59/oz).
Copper futures pulled back from yesterday’s advances with demand sapped by the subdued risk tone.
Goldman Sachs sees minimal impact from new EU restrictions on Russian LNG. GS says the latest EU package of sanctions impacting Russia bans the transshipment of Russian LNG by member countries, but the measures do not block EU member states from importing Russian LNG.
Citi says crude markets are showing tightness, sees Brent picking up in Q3, but notes opportunities to sell into the strength
Global crude steel output rises 1.5% to 165.1mln tonnes in May 2024 vs May 2023; China crude steel output rises 2.7% Y/Y to 92.9mln tonnes in May 2024
French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 48.2 vs. Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 48.9); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 48.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.3); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 45.3 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 46.4)
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.6 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.4); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 53.5 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 54.2); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 43.4 vs. Exp. 46.4 (Prev. 45.4). “This should be a further reason for the ECB to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts.”
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Jun) 50.8 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.2); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 45.6 vs. Exp. 47.9 (Prev. 47.3); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Jun) 52.6 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.2)
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 51.4 vs. Exp. 51.3 (Prev. 51.2); Flash Services PMI (Jun) 51.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 52.9); Flash Composite PMI (Jun) 51.7 vs. Exp. 53.1 (Prev. 53.0). “Meanwhile, from an inflation perspective, stubbornly persistent service sector inflation – a major barrier to lower interest rates – remains evident in the survey, but should at least cool further from the current 5.7% pace in coming months. However, companies’ costs are rising, most notably in manufacturing, where shipping costs in particular are spiking again and adding to a renewed rise in inflationary pressures from goods.”
Other Data
UK Retail Sales MM (May) 2.9% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. -2.3%, Rev. -1.8%); UK Retail Sales YY (May) 1.3% vs. Exp. -0.9% (Prev. -2.7%, Rev. -2.3%); Retail Sales Ex-Fuel YY (May) 1.2% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -3.0%, Rev. -2.5%); Retail Sales Ex-Fuel MM (May) 2.9% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. -2.0%, Rev. -1.4%)
French Business Climate Mfg (Jun) 99.0 vs. Exp. 100.0 (Prev. 99.0)
UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun) -14.0 vs. Exp. -16.0 (Prev. -17.0)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK Conservative MPs have accused the BoE of making a “political decision” after deciding to hold rates, according to The Telegraph.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Barkin (voter) urged for clearer inflation signals before cutting rates and said data is to determine further moves after the initial rate cut, while he added the Fed is well-positioned and has the necessary firepower for the job.
Fed’s Goolsbee (non-voter) repeated that they can cut if they see more good inflation reports.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen said it is necessary that the US contain deficits and President Biden’s budget is full of proposals to do exactly that, while she added that President Biden would protect tax benefits received by families making USD 400k or less.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“The IDF wants to declare the end of the war after the Rafah operation”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press Haaretz
Israel will reportedly step up attempts to assassinate Hamas leaders in a bid to force Hamas to accept the ceasefire deal, according to a senior Israeli official cited by The Times.
US Secretary of State Blinken underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation in Lebanon and reaching a diplomatic resolution in the meeting with Israeli officials, while he emphasised the need to take additional steps to surge humanitarian aid into Gaza and plan for post-conflict governance, security, and reconstruction, according to the State Department.
OTHER
UK is reportedly at loggerheads with the US and Germany over Ukraine joining NATO as the US and Germany have derailed a European plan to grant Ukraine an “irreversible” path to NATO membership and instead support offering Ukraine a lighter commitment to membership of the military alliance, according to The Telegraph.
Russian President Putin said Russia is ready to start talks on a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict even as early as tomorrow but all parties should study its peace proposals and it is up to them when they bother to do it, while he added Russia never rejected the idea of negotiations and that the Ukrainian side has forbidden itself to negotiate, according to TASS.
Japan imposed sanctions against China-based companies in connection to the Ukraine war with sanctions placed on China-based Yilufa Electronics and Shenzhen 5G High-Tech Innovation Co.
South Korean military fired warning shots after North Korean soldiers crossed the border on Thursday, according to Yonhap.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continues to slip and now sits beneath USD 64k, with Ethereum also slipping below USD 3.5k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with sentiment subdued after the lacklustre handover from Wall St where tech underperformed and risk appetite was sapped as participants reflected on higher yields and soft data releases ahead of quad-witching.
ASX 200 was rangebound with upside restricted after weak Australian flash PMI data including a steeper contraction in manufacturing.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively after softer-than-expected National CPI data and weakening PMIs.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured with underperformance in Hong Kong as the local benchmark dipped beneath 18,000 amid losses in property and tech, while the mainland conformed to the glum mood amid ongoing trade-related headwinds with Canada also preparing a tariffs plan on Chinese electric vehicles.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Canada is reportedly preparing a tariffs plan on Chinese electric vehicles, according to Bloomberg.
Japanese PM Kishida is to resume utility and maintain gasoline subsidies, according to FNN. It was separately reported that Japan’s government is in final preparations to adopt additional steps to ease the burden of higher electricity and gas prices, according to NHK.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said the inclusion to the US monitoring list does not mean that Japan’s foreign exchange policy is a problem, while he added that stable forex levels are desirable and it is important that forex rates reflect fundamentals.
BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida says Japan’s economy recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs; underlying inflation likely to gradually accelerate. Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economic and price outlook remains high. Must be vigilant to financial, FX market developments and their impact on Japan’s economy and prices. BoJ will decide specifics on bond tapering plan and size of reducing in bond buying will be significant. Japan’s financial system remains stable as a whole. BoJ will adjust degree of monetary easing if economy and prices move in line with forecasts.
BoJ to hold meetings with bond market participants on bond-tapering plan on July 9-10th
China’s Commerce Ministry says EU continues to escalate trade friction; may “trigger a trade war”; responsibility lies entirely with the EU side; hopes EU would meet China halfway
DATA RECAP
Japanese National CPI YY (May) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.5%)
Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (May) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.2%)
Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (May) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.4%)
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Jun) 50.1 (Prev. 50.4); Services PMI Flash SA (Jun) 49.8 (Prev. 53.8)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Jun) 50.6 (Prev. 52.1)
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Jun) 47.5 (Prev. 49.7); Services PMI Flash (Jun) 51.0 (Prev. 52.5)
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
3 CHINA
Watch: Filipino Soldiers Fought Off Axe-Wielding Chinese Coast Guard ‘With Bare Hands’
THURSDAY, JUN 20, 2024 – 10:00 PM
Dramatic new video shows the latest ramming incident between Chinese and Philippine vessels in a contested area of the South China Sea, and it reveals clear escalation which involved the Chinese side clearly brandishing weapons.
The incident happened near the Second Thomas Shoal on Monday, where the Philippine military has troops stationed as part of its claim on the Spratly Islands (also claimed by Beijing). Manilla officials said their military vessels were en route there on a normal ‘humanitarian resupply’ mission when the boats were deliberately rammed and boxed in by Chinese coast guard ships.
The video shows Chinese crew hacking at inflatable vessels with axes and knives. The melee at sea left one Filipino soldier severely injured (he lost his thumb, official statements say), which is a rarity for such encounters. The event has been denounced as ‘piracy’ after Philippine soldiers fought off the armed Chinese sailors with “bare hands”.
FT describes that “Several clips released by the Armed Forces of the Philippines late on Wednesday showed Chinese coastguard speedboats, assisted by at least one larger coastguard ship, ramming the Philippine boats and trapping them between the Chinese ones with ropes.”
The report further emphasizes this “marked the sharpest escalation in the stand-off over the Second Thomas Shoal, a disputed reef inside the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone where Manila intentionally grounded a former US Navy ship in 1999 and which it has been using as a military outpost.”
Watch some of the chaotic footage below:
Philippines releases dramatic new footage of clash at sea. Video shows Chinese coast guard sailors brandishing weapons including sticks, knives and an axe clashing with Philippine naval vessels near a strategic reef in the South China Sea http://u.afp.com/5hoE
1:01
·
45.2K Views
Philippines releases dramatic new footage of clash at sea.
Video shows Chinese coast guard sailors brandishing weapons including sticks, knives and an axe clashing with Philippine naval vessels near a strategic reef in the South China Seahttps://t.co/BA491csvrNpic.twitter.com/a7OMUZsC4Y
To be expected, Beijing has sharply rebuked and rejected Manilla’s denunciation of Chinese aggression, with Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian saying Thursday that the Philippine vessel’s purpose was “absolutely not about humanitarian resupply.”
“The Philippine vessels secretly carried construction materials and even weapons and equipment, and they deliberately rammed Chinese vessels,” Lin claimed.
Thus both sides are saying the other started it and was the aggressor, akin to past similar ramming incidents and the usual tit-for-tat accusations that follow. In some videos the Chinese coast guard members are heard shouting: “This is China!”
But the situation in these waters is more dangerous than in the past, given the Chinese government has recently authorized new rules of engagement, allowing the coast guard to use lethal force or board ships if they are found in Chinese territorial waters.
Ayungin Attack — Shocking new details & video shows China’s “brutal assault” on the Philippines – Chinese Coast Guard deployed tear gas – “In a brazen act of aggression, Filipino troops valiantly fought back & defended their position” – CCG employed physical attacks, bladed weapons, blaring sirens, & blinding strobe lights – Threatened Philippine soldiers with axes, knives, & bolos, & began hurling rocks & other objects – “In an act of piracy, CCG personnel proceeded to loot supplies & pilfer equipment” – Violently attached ropes to tow Philippine boats & slashed RHIBs, rendering them inoperable Quick thread with the latest:
·
881.7K Views
🚨 Ayungin Attack — Shocking new details & video shows China’s “brutal assault” on the Philippines
– Chinese Coast Guard deployed tear gas – “In a brazen act of aggression, Filipino troops valiantly fought back & defended their position” – CCG employed physical attacks, bladed… pic.twitter.com/wSgAmekTr8
The US and its regional allies have consistently rejected expanded Chinese maritime claims in the South China Sea, thus the rival sides are now on a heightened collision course as tensions soar. US warships are meanwhile still committed to their “freedom of navigation” patrols, while also flying surveillance planes overhead.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EUROPE/CMBS
this is dangerous: for the first time ever the AAA tranche of CMBS securities face losses
(zerohedge)
For The First Time Since The Financial Crisis, CMBS Investors Face Europe’s First AAA Loss
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 06:55 AM
This wasn’t supposed to happen… or rather this wasn’t supposed to happen outside of a crisis (and certainly not with stocks at all time highs).
Sure, the “impossible” did happen back back in April 2020, just as the world was about to break and the Fed was injecting trillions into the system. That’s when we first reported that “Something Impossible Just Happened: A CLO Failed Its AAA Overcollateralization Test.” So yes, while the AAA tranche of any structured vehicle is supposed to be guaranteed from impairments even in a 6-sigma event (not really: it happened quite frequently during the global financial crisis) that was hardly the case four years ago, but then again, with the world locked down for covid, the S&P crashing 30% in a week, and amid general panic, it’s safe to say that nobody noticed.
But then it happened again and this time there was no crisis: in the last week of May we learned that for the first time since the Lehman bankruptcy, Investors holding the top-most tranche debt backed by commercial real estate have suffered losses for the first time since the housing meltdown collapsed the economy 16 years ago. According to CMBS strategists at Barclays, buyers of the AAA portion of a $308 million note backed by the mortgage on the 1740 Broadway building in midtown Manhattan received less than three-quarters of their initial investment in recent weeks after the loan was dumped at a sizeable discount. All low-tier creditors were wiped out.
So let’s recap: while a CLO AAA-tranche was impaired back in April 2020 – the first time this happened since the global financial crisis – one could at least understand why: the economy was literally halted, the Fed was pumping trillions into the economy every day to keep the zombified patient from dying, and nobody knew where their toilet paper would come from tomorrow, let alone their next structured finance paycheck.
But for this to happen in May of 2024, when the S&P was hitting record high after record high an AAA tranche to see a 25% haircut, that signals something is very broken with the system.
And then it happened again.
According to Bank of America, investors in the AAA tranche of a loan backed by UK shopping malls are facing losses, in what may be the first such impairment since the global financial crisis. In a Wednesday note by Mark Nichol (available to pro subscribers in the usual place) he estimates that Class A noteholders of commercial mortgage-backed security Elizabeth Finance 2018 could suffer a partial principal loss based on the amount that is expected to be recouped from the disposal sale of the underlying properties.
As BofA explains, Mount Street, the special servicer of the UK loan called Elizabeth Finance 2018 which has been in default since 2020, announced it has decided to accept a cash bid of £35.0mn for the Maroon properties, which was the highest of the portfolio bids received. Mount Street estimates net proceeds of around £31.5mn, which is less than the £33.6mn principal balance of the class A notes. And based on Mount Street’s estimate, BofA projects that the class A notes will suffer a 6% principal loss.
As Bloomberg notes, as recently as April, ratings agency Morningstar DBRS estimated the value of the three retail properties underlying the loan at £50.4 million, which set the loan-to-value at 125%. However, the agency noted that there was “uncertainty around the outcome of the sales process against the backdrop of challenging market conditions”.
Well, in the two months since market conditions must have imploded because according to BogA, “the decline in the Maroon property values has been striking and exceeded our 2021 projection that principal losses would reach the class B notes.” As it turns out, the principal losses will reach class A notes, which are currently rated A (sf) by DBRS and BBB- (sf) by S&P. Both agencies took downgrade actions earlier this year.
As the BofA analyst further notes, and to nobody’s surprise, Goldman Sachs was the originator and arranger of Elizabeth Finance 2018, which initially included two loans. At the time of issuance, Fitch voiced concerns that the class A notes did not merit AAA or AA ratings, regardless of leverage, owing to the pro-rata repayment structure. That is, “were either loan to be refinanced, the class A notes would remain outstanding and therefore reliant on the performance of the remaining loan.”
It turns out that Fitch was right, for once, it now appears that the Class A noteholders, i.e. the AAA tranche, of Elizabeth Finance 2018 will suffer a partial principal loss: “It would be the first CMBS initially rated AAA in a post-financial crisis in Europe, to our knowledge.”
And while the Elizabeth Finance 2018 loss is not the first – it follows just one month after the first AAA loss in US CMBS, which as noted above occurred in a transaction backed by a single office property, 1740 Broadway, the European AAA-impairment is the first one to focus on the retail property sector.
The Maroon loan was backed by three shopping centers located in England and Scotland. But it wasn’t meant to last: the loan breached its default covenant in 2019, just one year after inception, and in 2020 was transferred to special servicing and accelerated. Under the deal’s pro-rata waterfall, £9mn of principal proceeds was paid to the subordinated notes from a prior loan redemption.
As Bloomberg details, UK regional malls that relied on department stores and fashion retailers — among the most vulnerable to the rise of online shopping — were already suffering before the coronavirus pandemic forced them to close. Vacancy rates are yet to recover in some areas, with higher financing costs adding to an already challenging situation.
“This property sale price shows that declines may be more severe than thought, but it could be specific to this particular portfolio,” Cas Bonsema, ABS and covered bond analyst at Rabobank, said. “CMBS is always very specific and in this case the properties got hit hard by the pandemic.”
“There have been some signs of distress in the CMBS market, particularly around shopping malls, some of which haven’t really recovered from the pandemic era,” said Harjeet Lall, a securitization partner at law firm Pinsent Masons LLP. “Many malls are struggling because of reduced consumer spending and a drop in occupancy levels.”
And so, after years of sanctity for the AAA-class, in the span of just one month we have seen not only but two AAA impairments, one in an office-backed loan and another in a European loan CMBS. They are just the the tip of the formerly invincible iceberg, especially since these take place with stocks at all time high. Imagine what happens when stocks enter a bear market after the coming post-election crash? The bigger problem is that the money that was allocated to these AAA tranches was not sourced from billionaires who can afford to blow a few million on some financial speculation; this particular money comes literally from “widows and orphans” since it was supposed to be safe from impairment come hell or high water. The question now is how does society react when some of the most vulnerable members realize that what little money they had has just vaporized because their financial advisor was certain, absolutely certain that the AAA tranche can never suffer a loss.
“A Loss Of Momentum”: European PMIs Unexpectedly Crumble Across The Board
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 09:30 AM
Judging by the unexpected freefall and across-the-board miss in Europe’s PMIs this morning, the ECB may have cut rates too little, too late.
The Euro area composite flash PMI declined by 1.3pt to 50.8, below consensus expectations of 52.5. According to Goldman, the deceleration in the composite index was broad-based across sectors, though skewed towards the manufacturing sector, where the output index fell (by 3.4pt) to 46.0. Here is a snapshot of the reports:
Euro Area Composite PMI (June, Flash): 50.8, missing consensus 52.5, last 52.2.
Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (June, Flash): 45.6, missing consensus 47.9, last 47.3.
Euro Area Services PMI (June, Flash): 52.6, missing consensus 53.4, last 53.2.
France Composite PMI (June, Flash): 48.2, missing consensus 49.4, last 48.9.
UK Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.7, missing consensus 53.0, last 53.0.
Across countries, the decline in the area-wide index was broad-based.
France: The French composite flash PMI decreased by 0.7pt to 48.2 in June, notably below consensus and our expectations. The decline was driven by both sectors, with the services index falling (by 0.5pt) to 48.8, and the manufacturing output series dropping (by 1.7pt) to 45.3. The press release state that “the level of incoming new business weighed on activity, [with] some panel members linking lower output volumes to the upcoming election”.
Germany: The German composite flash PMI decreased by 1.9pt to 50.6 in June, below consensus and our expectations. The deceleration was broad-based across sectors, though skewed heavily towards the manufacturing sector, where the output index fell (by 4.0pt) to 44.9.
Periphery: The periphery composite PMI decreased by 1.2pt to 52.8, driven by a decline across both sectors, skewed notably towards manufacturing, where the output index fell (by 3.4pt) to 47.1.
In the UK, the composite flash PMI declined to 51.7, below consensus expectations of a flat reading, on the back of a deceleration in services activity, where the index fell by 1.7pt to 51.2, only partly offset by a slight improvement in manufacturing activity.
In its commentary on the results, Goldman said it sees three main takeaways from today’s data.
First, a loss of momentum in both the Euro area and the UK headline numbers. Despite expanding activity overall, Q2 growth momentum appears to be weaker than at the beginning of the year.
Second, the drivers of the slowdown appear to be different, with the UK recording strong and expanding manufacturing sector activity, as opposed to the broad-based decline in manufacturing seen across the Euro area.
Third, the PMI price components showed a slight divergence this month, with the Euro area mostly seeing benign price developments, following the ECB cut earlier this month, but UK prices gaining strength, driven in part by stronger demand expectations.
In response to the ugly PMI prints, European bond yields slumped and also dragged down the EUR, while pushing the USD higher. Curiously, despite the virtual assurance of much more QE coming, both gold and crypto also slumped to session lows after the dismal numbers. Expect that to reverse once the selling momentum ignition algos are exhausted.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS RAFAH
Israel, Hezbollah threaten war, Hamas reportedly open to power sharing in Gaza
Blinken calls to avoid further escalation with Lebanon • IAF strikes Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon Israel • US reestablishes humanitarian pier
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip on June 18, 2024(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Netanyahu teetering on brink of war with Lebanon, White House
Since Netanyahu released a video on Tuesday criticizing the United States for withholding support, the Biden administration jumped on the offensive, discrediting every word the prime minister said.
NEW YORK – The White House publicly and privately aired its frustrations with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s attacks against the Biden Administration Thursday, while Israel and Hezbollah threaten each other with war.
Since Netanyahu released an English-language video on Tuesday accusing the United States of withholding specific weapons, the Biden administration has discredited every word the prime minister has said since.
The video came as a surprise to the White House, National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby told reporters on Thursday.
The administration has made its concerns over the content of the video clear “at various levels, through various vehicles,” he said.
The Netanyahu video “was vexing and disappointing, as much as it was, incorrect, so difficult to know exactly what was on his mind,” Kirby said as he defended the Biden administration’s record of arms delivery to Israel.The idea that we had stopped helping Israel with their self-defense needs is just not accurate, Kirby said.
U.S. White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby speaks during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., June 17, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/ELIZABETH FRANTZ)
He recalled how the US forces came to Israel’s defense in April when Iran launched an unprecedented attack of hundreds of drones and missiles against Jerusalem.
“There’s no other country that’s done more, or will continue to do more, than the United States to help Israel defend itself,” Kirby said. Netanyahu’s words were upsetting, he said, “Given the amount of support that we have, and will continue to provide.”
On Tuesday, the Pentagon said the United States had delivered defense materials to Israel even after Biden paused one shipment of 2,000 and 500-pound bombs.
Officials across the administration maintain no other shipment or delivery of defense articles to Israel has been paused.
Netanyahu responded on Thursday, posting a message on X shortly after Kirby’s comments became public.
“I am happy to endure personal attacks, as long as Israel receives the weapons shipment it so needs in this existential war,” Netanyahu wrote.
On Wednesday, just one day after he made the initial accusation, his office posted a message on X that explaining that US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew had said that the weapons in question would be delivered to Israel.
Netanyahu alerted the public to a weapons crisis and then announced its resolution, in advance of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s trip to Washington early next week and a month before his own expected address to a joint session of Congress.
The back-and-forth between Netanyahu and the Biden administration over arms shipments, came as the White House worked to prevent Israel from launching an all-out war with Hezbollah.
The White House for the first time on Thursday addressed the IDF’s announcement from this week that it had approved operational plans for an offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon, repeating its cautious tone against Israel opening a second front of hostilities.
US special envoy “Amos Hochstein has been in the region several days, shuttling back and forth between Tel Aviv and Beirut to have these exact conversations,” Kirby said, indicating the White House is taking both Israel and Hezbollah’s rhetoric seriously.
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, “We have seen a dramatic increase in strikes by Hezbollah across the border targeting Israeli villages, civilians infrastructure.
“So we have been pursuing a diplomatic resolution to try to make clear that there should be no further escalation and that’s what we’ll continue to pursue,” Miller said.
The issues of Lebanon, as well as other security topics such as Iran, Gaza, and a pending hostage deal, were expected to be part of discussions held Thursday between Israeli and US officials.
Kirby confirmed that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and US Security of State Antony Blink were meeting with Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer and Israeli National Security Adviser Tzachi Hanegbi.
Miller and Kirby said that efforts were ongoing to close a deal that would see the return of the remaining 120 hostages held in Gaza, which would include a pause to the war.
“We continue to actively pursue a ceasefire in Gaza primarily to alleviate the suffering of the Palestinian people” and “to secure the return of hostages.
Such a pause to the war, which the US hopes would turn into a percent ceasefire, would make “it much easier to achieve a ceasefire and diplomatic resolution along the Israel Lebanon,” Miller stated.
end
‘If Nasrallah wants to take down Israel’s power grid, he only needs to make a call,’ Noga CEO says
The Energy Ministry said in response that the state of Israel’s energy is “robust and ready to deal with all possible scenarios.”
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, YANIR YAGNAJUNE 20, 2024 18:45Updated: JUNE 20, 2024 20:18
Shaul Goldstein, CEO of Noga – Israel Independent System Operator Ltd., at the Institute for National Security Studies conference in Sderot, June 20, 2024.(photo credit: RONEN TOPELBERG)
CEO of Noga – Israel Independent System Operator Ltd., Shaul Goldstein, said there is no guarantee that there will be electricity in Israel in the event of a future war with Hezbollah on Thursday at the Institute for National Security Studies conference in Sderot.
“After 72 hours without electricity in Israel, living here will be impossible. We are not in a good state and unprepared for a real war,” Goldstein said. He added that Hezbollah could easily take down Israel’s power grid.
“If Nasrallah wants to take down Israel’s power grid, he only needs to make a phone call to the person in charge of Beirut’s power system, which looks exactly like Israel’s. He doesn’t even need a drone; he can call a second-year electrical engineering student and ask where the most critical points in Israel are – everything is on the internet. I won’t say it here, but anyone who goes on the internet can find it,” Goldstein said.
“Israel is an energy island, and we need to supply ourselves – this is also our advantage; we are trained to work in isolation. When I took the position and began researching what the real threat to the electricity sector is, I asked – let’s say a missile hits the electricity sector, and there’s a power outage for one hour, three hours, 24 hours, 48 hours, 72 hours, and beyond. What happens to Israel in such a situation? The bottom line is that after 72 hours – it is impossible to live in Israel,” Goldstein warned at the beginning of his remarks.
He added, “People do not understand how much our lives here depend on electricity.”
Hassan Nasrallah (credit: HO / AL-MANAR TV / AFP)
“You check all our infrastructures – optical fibers and ports- and I won’t get into sensitive issues, but we are not in a good state,” Goldstein warned. “We are not ready for a real war. We live in a fantasy world, in my opinion.”
He then added that Israel has invested a lot in protection in a joint effort with the electric company.
Goldstein concluded his statements, “If the war is postponed by a year, five, ten – our situation will be better.”
CEO of Bituach Leumi calls Goldstein’s comments ‘irresponsible’
Bituach Leumi’s CEO, Meir Spiegler, called Shaul Goldstein’s statements regarding the “fragility” of the power grid “irresponsible” and “disconnected from reality.” He added that it “creates panic among the public” and that “It would be better if he focused on managing Noga, which has regressed since he took office.”
The Energy Ministry said in response that the state of Israel’s energy is “robust and ready to deal with all possible scenarios.”
“Since the beginning of the war, the ministry has been tirelessly working to ensure the energy supply for all citizens of the country, preparing meticulously for extreme scenarios and possible supply disruptions. These efforts are being carried out in close cooperation with security agencies to manage electricity demand, energy redundancy, and fuel reserves,” the ministry’s statement read.
“There are several scenarios, including the ‘blackout’ scenario in which over 60% of households may be left without electricity for up to 72 hours, which is an extreme scenario with low probability. However, the ministry continuously works to reduce the likelihood of this scenario and to prepare for a swift recovery from a blackout, should it occur,” the statement continued.
The Energy Ministry called upon Israeli citizens to prepare for any situation in accordance with Home Front Command directives, including carrying batteries, water, and portable chargers.
Energy and Infrastructure Minister Eli Cohen commented, “The State of Israel will not be left alone. We are preparing for every scenario, holding discussions and assessing the situation, and spending billions of shekels to ensure a regular supply of energy to all Israeli citizens.”
He continued, “In recent months, we have increased our inventory and purchased a lot of equipment in order to have backups. The State of Israel has the ability to generate electricity from a large variety of sources – we have gas rigs, we have huge reserves of coal, and we also generate electricity from renewable energy. Many actions, which cannot be specified, have been taken to ensure a regular energy supply. The chance of a power outage for many days is very low.”
He then added, “It is important for me to make it clear to our enemies: If there is a power outage lasting for hours [in Israel], in Lebanon, there will be a power outage for months.”
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
Escalating Red Sea Attacks Drive Up Vessel Insurance Costs
THURSDAY, JUN 20, 2024 – 08:40 PM
Iran-backed Houthi rebels have been intensifying missile and drone attacks, targeting commercial vessels in the southern Red Sea, critical Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, and the Gulf of Aden. The rebels have even threatened to extend their reach to the Mediterranean Sea. The recent sinking of the Tutor dry-bulk carrier by a kamikaze drone boat marks a significant escalation. The ongoing turmoil has sent containerized freight costs soaring, along with insurance costs back on the rise.
Bloomberg spoke with two individuals familiar with the maritime insurance market. They said the price of covering a commercial vessel for transit has jumped from .3% to .4% of the ship’s total value to .6%. In other words, a vessel worth $50 million must pay upwards of $300k of insurance for one sail.
“The rate is nevertheless slightly below a peak reached earlier this year when attacks ramped up,” Bloomberg said. But if Houthi attacks persist through summer, the rate will likely increase further.
The sinking of the commodity-hauling bulk carrier this week by a drone boat was a real eye-opener for the shipping community and commodity industry as President Biden’s Operation Prosperity Guardian fails to counter endless Houthi attacks on commercial ships in the critical shipping lane.
It was also the first time a ship was sunk by a drone boat in this muti-month campaign by Houthis.
“It’s another indicator that the Houthis are stepping up their attacks on those vessels that were warned not to pass through the Red Sea,” Dirk Siebels, a senior analyst at Risk Intelligence, said of the drone boat attack on Tutor, who Bloomberg quoted.
Considering Houthis are mainly targeting Western-linked vessels, not all insurance costs have soared. Bloomberg said Chinese vessels continue to receive significant discounts.
Samuel Cranny-Evans, an associate fellow at RUSI, a London-based think tank, warned drone boats “can be difficult to intercept.”
That said, increasing insurance premiums and freight costs contribute to the sticky inflation story. Thanks, Iran, which is just causing turmoil on the maritime lane via its proxy group, Houthis.
“Iran is defeating US deterrence and counterstrike in the Red Sea. The stage is set for a similar fight in the Gulf,” David Asher, a senior fellow at Hudson Institute, stated, as war risks are only rising.
ISRAEL/HAMAS
and the world says nothing
IDF engages terrorists, finds weapons in Gaza university used as Hamas HQ
The combat teams completed a number of operations all across the Gaza Strip in order to expand and increase IDF operational control in the area.
The IDF announced on Friday that it had located and destroyed weapons caches at Al Zahra University in Gaza.
Combat teams from the Alexandroni Brigade, the 8th Brigade, and the Multidimensional Unit operated in the Gaza Strip under the direction of the 99th Division, the military added.
The IDF reported that the combat teams completed a number of operations all across the Strip to expand and increase IDF operational control in the area.
IDF troops operating in southern Gaza, June 21, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
Destroying weapon caches
The soldiers eliminated dozens of terrorists and located a weapons storage facility that contained mortars and military equipment belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization.
The Alexandroni Brigade’combat team operated in Al-Omdan, on the outskirts of Gaza City, and located many weapons and tunnel shafts in the area.
The Multidimensional Unit conducted a targeted raid on a university that was being used as a Hamas headquarters, from which terrorists fired on IDF troops, the IDF noted.
The soldiers located weapons and barrel bombs inside the university compound.
The soldiers eliminated a terrorist who fired an RPG missile at them from a building in the area.
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
Putin Says West Prepared To Scapegoat Zelensky For War Failures: ‘Replaced By Next Year’
THURSDAY, JUN 20, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Russian President Vladimir Putin is in Vietnam, where he signed at least a dozen energy and trade deals with the country’s President To Lam, on his tour to shore up ties in Asia in an effort to offset the West’s drive to isolate Moscow.
On his last day in the country he made some wide-ranging remarks to the press, and among the most interesting was a statement on the future of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
Putin predicted at a moment things are going very badly for Ukrainian forces, and at a rare time Western media seems to be turning on Zelensky, that the Ukrainian leader will soon be replaced over his poor and unpopular decision-making. Putin suggested Washington is essentially going to make him a scapegoat.
“In the West, they simply do not want to replace him [Zelenskyy], the time is not right. I think it’s obvious to anyone. They will blame all unpopular decisions on him, including lowering the [military] draft age, and that’s it,” Putin asserted, according to Russian media translation.
That’s when he followed with: “And then they’ll replace him. I think it will happen sometime in the first half of next year.”
Putin could be at least in part seizing on the obvious increased negative coverage of the Zelensky government in major Western media outlets, from the BBC to NY Times to Wall Street Journal. Indeed Zelensky’s ‘celebrity power’ on display throughout the first part of the war, where it seemed he could simply do no wrong in the media’s eyes, is waning fast.
Despite Kiev forces clearly being against the ropes of late, Zelensky has still refused to even contemplate negotiating. He has stood by his earlier commitment to not enter dialogue toward ceasefire until Putin is out of power. Putin commented on this while in Vietnam:
Talks on Ukraine could take place as early as tomorrow, but Russia will use the current situation as a starting point, the president added.
“We have been conducting these behind-the-scenes talks, and what we hoped for has failed,” Putin told reporters.
Zelensky’s advisor, Alexey Arestovich, argued in 2019: – Attempting to join NATO will pressure Russia to invade – “Our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia” – Predicting the war would start between 2020-22, with remarkable details https://youtube.com/watch?v=dVslQVo7j_M…
·
107.3K View
Zelensky's advisor, Alexey Arestovich, argued in 2019: – Attempting to join NATO will pressure Russia to invade – "Our price for joining NATO is a big war with Russia" – Predicting the war would start between 2020-22, with remarkable detailshttps://t.co/8iEn5wSUd9pic.twitter.com/9fmw5X1DYl
Interestingly, Putin had back in May declared Zelensky “illegitimate” after Ukraine failed to hold previously scheduled elections. Zelensky’s term was set to end May 20, but the government declared no elections until the war is over, citing martial law.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Another major attack by Ukrainian drones on 4 Russian refineries
(zerohedge)
Ukrainian Drone Swarms Target Four Russian Refineries In Major Attack
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Brent crude futures were flat on Friday amid rising geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe, which seems counterintuitive as escalating war risks could result in supply disruptions.
In the overnight hours, four refineries in southern Russia were targeted, with one facility damaged, in one of the largest drone swarm attacks since the war in Ukraine began, Bloomberg reports.
Seventy drones were intercepted and destroyed over Crimea and the Black Sea and 43 over the Krasnodar region, the Russian Defense Ministry said on Telegram, without saying how many drones took part in the attack. The Afipsky, Ilsky, Krasnodar and Astrakhan refineries were attacked, Ukraine’s General Staff said later in a Facebook post.
In the Seversky district of the Krasnodar region, where the Afipsky and Ilsky refineries are located, “administrative buildings were damaged on the territory of an oil refinery” as a result of the attack, local governor Veniamin Kondratyev said on Telegram. Interfax earlier reported that a fire affecting area of 50 square meters (538 square feet) was extinguished by morning, with two people injured. -BBG
Ukraine’s military claimed responsibility for the drone swarm attack, saying it launched drones against “the Afipskiy, Ilskiy, Krasnodar and Astrakhan oil refineries.” They also said an intelligence center in southern Russia was targeted.
BREAKING: Ukraine launches the largest drone swarm attack against Russia so far Ca. 100 drones launched & hit: – Krasnodarekoneft oil refinery – military airfield in Yeisk – 726 air defense center in Yeysk – Ilsky Oil Refinery – Volgograd Oil Refinery
Drones also targeted a “preparation and storage area” in the Krasnodar region, resulting in a “series of explosions and a fire with subsequent detonation,” Ukraine said.
More than two years since the war began, Ukraine is ramping up cross-border drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure as conflict spillover risks soar. Kyiv and its Western backers aim to paralyze one of Russia’s most important industries: oil refining.
In recent days, Ukrainian drone attacks have damaged several oil storage facilities. Last month, two other refineries in southern Russia, including Rosneft’s large Tuapse facility on the Black Sea, were targeted.
In March, Ukraine’s Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna said oil refineries in Russia are “absolutely legitimate targets” from a military point of view.
Recall that the Biden administration has freaked out about Ukrainian drone strikes in Russia. This was primarily because of the risk of driving Brent crude prices north of $100/bbl. However, in recent weeks, Biden ‘greenlighted‘ Ukraine to attack deep within Russia with US weapons.
In markets, Brent crude prices headed for the first back-to-back weekly gain since early April. Prices are ending the week around the $85/bbl handle. Escalating conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East reflect a higher war risk premium that should be added to Brent crude prices.
Meanwhile…
One major issue is if Ukraine continues targeting Russian oil infrastructure, Moscow could retaliate by lashing out at energy infrastructure relied on by the West. As we recently noted, this includes the “CPC pipeline carrying oil from Kazakhstan through Russia to the global market.”
Given all the conflict, the Biden team continues to be very concerned because an energy shock could send domestic gasoline prices at the pump to the politically sensitive $4-a-gallon level.
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
in point (I find the description in the abstract wrongly worded but set it aside), it seems that this report makes case why NIH, NIAIDS, FDA, CDC, HHS etc. must be taken down to the studs, RELOCATED
and many of those who worked there, headed there as directors, be dragged into courts, under oath, and examined…if courts find, retroactive etc. that they committed wrongs and criminal acts, we hang them…and we focus on what they were doing with COVID fake pandemic also, and I want all, from those who brought the fraud ‘6-foot social distancing was made up’ PCR created false-positive non-COVID pandemic, to those who established COVID lockdown lunatic polices, to those who implemented the deadly COVID protocols of isolation, sedatives (propofol, lorazepam, midazolam etc.), denial of antibiotics, Remdesivir, ventilator etc.) to those who invented the mRNA technology to the vaccine makers, the CEOs of Pfizer, Moderna, all, every single person linked to this madness, to be tried and if shown did nothing wrong, we celebrate them but if shown by judges and juries they caused deaths by reckless and knowingly deadly actions, we hang them in toto on the White House lawn or put them to death by firing squad. We accept no explanations this time for ‘they knew’.
They knew. They made money.
Alexander MAGA COVID News; a PCR manufactured COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Let us focus on this report titled: “Interim Staff Report on Investigation into Risky MPXV Experiment at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases”. Note Fauci headed NIAID for decades, and Francis Collins at NIH was his boss.
For this substack article, when I refer to this monkey-pox report at NIAID, I mean all the research out of NIAID, NIH, CDC etc. All the US government alphabet agencies. The verdicts expand to all.
The report is long and raises very serious questions about competence and criminality at NIAID (and NIH) for a long period of time (decades) and under Anthony Fauci and Francis Collins of NIH, yet let us just focus on what was said about this monkey pox research under Fauci AND Francis Collins and you understand how devastating and dangerous this report was:
“In the interview, Dr. Moss noted he and his colleagues had swapped dozens of genes from the much more transmissible, but less deadly, clade II MPXV into the more deadly clade I MPXV. The article stated that the Moss team was “planning to try the opposite, endowing clade II virus with genes from its deadlier relative.”3 The proposal to transfer genes from the deadlier clade I into the more transmissible clade II alarmed some scientists who believed a more potent version of the mpox outbreak strain could spark an epidemic that would be substantially more lethal.”
I think there is a typo in this statement, but the content is clear that these bitches Fauci, Francis Collins and their criminal colleagues were conducting highly deadly research, and the question is, did they have the clearance or authority to do this? Why would they do this? We just need focus on this statement and this statement represents the core and thesis of the report.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0687 DOWN .0019
USA/ YEN 158.932 DOWN 0.002 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2642 DOWN .0017
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3693 UP .0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.30 PTS OR .24%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 306.80 PTS OR 1.67%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.35%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 306.80 PTS OR 1.67 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.30 PTS OR .24%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.35%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 36.59 PTS OR 0.09%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2366.90
silver:$30.56
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.42 UP 20 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2610 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2902)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.89 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.967…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.273% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.415 UP 1 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.740 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2332.00
SILVER AT 11;30: 29.78
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 34.74 PTS OR 0.42%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 90.66 PTS OR 0.50%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 42.77 PTS OR 0.56 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 128.60 OR 1.15%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 366.38 PTS OR 1.09% PTS
WTI Oil price 81.68 12EST/
Brent Oil: 86.20 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.99 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 74/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4060 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1260 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0694 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.26470 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1030 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.967%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 159.57 UP 0.635 YEN DOWN 64 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3694 UP 0013 //CDN dollar DOWN 13 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.67
Brent OIL: 85.17
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.2550
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 0 BASIS PTS to 4.393%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 0 PTS AT 4.730
USA dollar index: 105.27 UP 39 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.83 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 89.13 UP 1 AND 88/100 roubles
GOLD 2,322.20 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.54 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 14.55 PTS OR 0.037%
NASDAQ DOWN 51.87 PTS OR 0.26 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.14 DOWN 0.14 PTS OR 1.05%
GLD: $214.78 UP 3.58 OR 1.55%
SLV/ $26.98 DOWN 1.02 OR 3.14%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Crude Pops, Gold Drops, Crypto Flops As NVDA Suffers Worst Week In 2 Months
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 04:00 PM
The biggest ‘quadwitch’ ever saw a tight trading range outside of the open and the close.
A chaotic start – as $3 trillion notional options expired on the open – left stocks to tread water for much of the day (even as bond markets suddenly gave a shit about flash PMIs), until the volume exploded into the close.
It was another ugly week for US macro data overall – with the Bloomberg Economic Surprise Index tumbling to its weakest since Feb 2019…
Source: Bloomberg
But the decline was dominated by ‘hard’ real data (worst since Sept 2022) while soft survey data improved off nine-year lows…
Source: Bloomberg
On the week, The Dow outperformed while Nasdaq lagged as Monday’s huge squeeze higher saved the entire week…
Utes and Real Estate were the only sectors to close down on the week as Energy outperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA suffered its first down-week in two months…
Goldman Sachs said that their floor tilted -22% better for sale, driven by supply within the LO community. But, they highlighted that as expected, some massive opening prints w/ quadwitch (and noted that the close will be 5x). We did have asset managers take advantage of these opening prints.
LOs are currently -6% better for sale. Supply from this group is largely being driven by Info Tech, Healthcare, and Consumer names.
HFs are slightly better to buy, led by Consumer Disc and Healthcare. HFs are modestly selling Fins, REITs, Materials, and Energy. HF trading during first 30 mins driven by factor models. Little Mo drawdown mostly concentrated in tech w/ MU, NVD, AVGO, QCOM underperforming vs TXN, INTC, ON, MCHP outperforming.
Stifel’s Barry Bannister says the US stock benchmark has a shot at reaching the 6,000 mark before the end of 2024 as investors keep piling in, up from just below 5,500 Thursday. But by mid-2026, he expects the gauge to sink back to where it began this year — around the 4,800 level — erasing a fifth of its value.
To be clear, the forecaster says risk assets, and equity markets in particular, are due for a correction much sooner. His official year-end S&P 500 target stands at 4,750, implying a drop of some 13% from today. The index retreated after touching all-time highs Thursday as technology shares came under pressure. Still, the euphoria among investors that’s powered the market for months is set to propel shares higher before they eventually plunge, he says.
“Timing is everything,” Bannister and his team wrote Wednesday in a note to clients, “and we are aware that investors may be in full-fledged bubble/mania mode which looks past our concerns.”
Bannister is not alone as Mark Spitznagel, the founder and chief of Universa Investments, said:
“I’ve been saying this for a year and a half because people got 2022 so incredibly wrong (we’re not in the 70s!). The Fed recklessly popped the greatest credit bubble in human history and now as people realize that the Fed needs to about-face, they’re going to get increasingly juked the other way in a face-ripping rally. At the point of euphoria — which is coming — the high will be in and the market will crash worse than the global financial crisis.”
“What matters more than my views on this are how Universa’s clients are positioned for it — for both a face-ripping rally and for the worst crash since 1929.”
Is this week’s NVDA weakness a sign of things to come?
Source: Bloomberg
Or is the macro picture signaling something that stocks don’t know…
Source: Bloomberg
Looking at US bond yields trade this week, it’s clear we are entering the ‘illiquid summer’ season as yields snapped and crapped constantly to end the week marginally higher…
Source: Bloomberg
But, on the bright side, at least they’re not French where the OATS spread exploded to its widest since 2012 (the EU Debt Crisis)…
Source: Bloomberg
US rate-cut expectations for 2024 and 2025 were basically unchanged on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar ended the week very marginally higher
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin suffered this week with ETF outflows for five straight days…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin fell to $64,000 and found some support at six-week lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was performing well all week until this morning’s hot PMIs which sent the barbarous relic into the red…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite a dip today as contracts rolled, the front-month WTI futures price rallied up to its highest since April this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Messers Biden and Powell may be about to have a problem…
Source: Bloomberg
…as pump-prices are about to chase wholesale gasoline prices and crude prices higher.
MORNING TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Existing Home Sales Tumble In May… As Prices Set New Record High
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 10:13 AM
US existing home sales fell for the third straight month in May (-0.7% MoM vs -1.0% exp). This left home sales down 2.8% YoY (YoY sales have not increased since July 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
The total home sales SAAR is push back towards COVID lockdown lows once again at 4.1mm, but prices accelerated to a new record high…
Source: Bloomberg
“Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months.”
The supply of homes on the market increased 18.5% from the same month last year to 1.28 million, but it’s still well below the level seen before the pandemic when mortgage rates were much lower.
Source: Bloomberg
That’s quite a divergence between price and sales…
Source: Bloomberg
And given that mortgage rates remain stubbornly above 7%, existing home sales show no signs of improving anytime soon…
Source: Bloomberg
About 67% of the homes sold were on the market for less than a month in May, roughly flat from the prior month, while 30% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 24 days on average in May, compared with 26 days in April, NAR’s report said.
Sales in the South, the largest region, fell for a third month while transactions in the other three major areas were unchanged in May.
First-time buyers made up 31% of purchases, down slightly from a month earlier.
And what will happen if The Fed cuts rates?
end
US PMIs Surprisingly Surge Despite Plummeting ‘Hard Data’, EU PMIs Slump
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 09:55 AM
After this morning’s ugly picture across European PMIs, preliminary June US PMIs were also expected to decline modestly, but remain in expansion (above 50) for both manufacturing and services.
But, in the face of puking US hard macro data, the soft survey data surprised to the upside with Manufacturing at 51.7 (51.3 prior, 51.0 exp) and Services at 26-month highs at 55.1 (54.8 prior, 54.0 exp)…
Source: Bloomberg
The US Services print is above all analysts’ estimates…
Source: Bloomberg
Quite a divergence from the rest of the world…
Source: Bloomberg
Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The early PMI data signal the fastest economic expansion for over two years in June, hinting at an encouragingly robust end to the second quarter while at the same time inflation pressures have cooled.
“The PMI is running at a level broadly consistent with the economy growing at an annualized rate of just under 2.5%. The upturn is broad-based, as rising demand continues to filter through the economy. Although led by the service sector, reflecting strong domestic spending, the expansion is being supported by an ongoing recovery in manufacturing, which so far this year is enjoying its best growth spell for two years.
“The survey also brings welcome news in terms of job gains, with a renewed appetite to hire being driven by improved business optimism about the outlook.
“Selling price inflation has meanwhile cooled again after ticking higher in May, down to one of the lowest levels seen over the past four years. Historical comparisons indicate that the latest decline brings the survey’s price gauge into line with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.”
Not exactly a Fed rate-cutting scenario!!
As we detailed earlier, judging by the unexpected freefall and across-the-board miss in Europe’s PMIs this morning, the ECB may have cut rates too little, too late.
The Euro area composite flash PMI declined by 1.3pt to 50.8, below consensus expectations of 52.5, prompting analysts to comment that “this should be a further reason for the ECB to proceed cautiously with interest rate cuts.”
According to Goldman, the deceleration in the composite index was broad-based across sectors, though skewed towards the manufacturing sector, where the output index fell (by 3.4pt) to 46.0. Here is a snapshot of the reports:
Euro Area Composite PMI (June, Flash): 50.8, missing consensus 52.5, last 52.2.
Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (June, Flash): 45.6, missing consensus 47.9, last 47.3.
Euro Area Services PMI (June, Flash): 52.6, missing consensus 53.4, last 53.2.
France Composite PMI (June, Flash): 48.2, missing consensus 49.4, last 48.9.
UK Composite PMI (June, Flash): 51.7, missing consensus 53.0, last 53.0.
Across countries, the decline in the area-wide index was broad-based.
France: The French composite flash PMI decreased by 0.7pt to 48.2 in June, notably below consensus and our expectations. The decline was driven by both sectors, with the services index falling (by 0.5pt) to 48.8, and the manufacturing output series dropping (by 1.7pt) to 45.3. The press release state that “the level of incoming new business weighed on activity, [with] some panel members linking lower output volumes to the upcoming election”.
Services Flash PMI (Jun) 48.8 vs. Exp. 50.0 (Prev. 49.3);
Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 45.3 vs. Exp. 46.8 (Prev. 46.4)
Germany: The German composite flash PMI decreased by 1.9pt to 50.6 in June, below consensus and our expectations. The deceleration was broad-based across sectors, though skewed heavily towards the manufacturing sector, where the output index fell (by 4.0pt) to 44.9.
Services Flash PMI (Jun) 53.5 vs. Exp. 54.4 (Prev. 54.2);
Manufacturing Flash PMI (Jun) 43.4 vs. Exp. 46.4 (Prev. 45.4).
Periphery: The periphery composite PMI decreased by 1.2pt to 52.8, driven by a decline across both sectors, skewed notably towards manufacturing, where the output index fell (by 3.4pt) to 47.1.
In the UK, the composite flash PMI declined to 51.7, below consensus expectations of a flat reading, on the back of a deceleration in services activity, where the index fell by 1.7pt to 51.2, only partly offset by a slight improvement in manufacturing activity.
In its commentary on the results, Goldman said it sees three main takeaways from today’s data.
First, a loss of momentum in both the Euro area and the UK headline numbers. Despite expanding activity overall, Q2 growth momentum appears to be weaker than at the beginning of the year.
Second, the drivers of the slowdown appear to be different, with the UK recording strong and expanding manufacturing sector activity, as opposed to the broad-based decline in manufacturing seen across the Euro area.
Third, the PMI price components showed a slight divergence this month, with the Euro area mostly seeing benign price developments, following the ECB cut earlier this month, but UK prices gaining strength, driven in part by stronger demand expectations.
In response to the ugly PMI prints, European bond yields slumped and also dragged down the EUR, while pushing the USD higher. Curiously, despite the virtual assurance of much more QE coming, both gold and crypto also slumped to session lows after the dismal numbers. Expect that to reverse once the selling momentum ignition algos are exhausted.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
This should be fascinating and this will ultimately go the Supreme Court for final verdict in this sordid affair.
“A Direct Attack On Our Democratic Process”: Missouri AG Sues New York Over Trump Lawfare
THURSDAY, JUN 20, 2024 – 10:40 PM
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Baily on Thursday announced that he’s suing the State of New York over what he called a “direct attack on our democratic process through unconstitutional lawfare against President Trump.”
🚨BREAKING: I will be filing suit against the State of New York for their direct attack on our democratic process through unconstitutional lawfare against President Trump.
It’s time to restore the rule of law.
— Attorney General Andrew Bailey (@AGAndrewBailey) June 21, 2024
“We have to fight back against a rogue prosecutor who is trying to take a presidential candidate off the campaign trail,” Baily posted on X, adding “Stay tuned.“
While Baily didn’t elaborate, last month he accused the Biden DOJ of colluding with prosecutors in various Trump cases, filing a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request in connection with his investigation.
“The investigations and subsequent prosecutions of former President Donald J. Trump appear to have been conducted in coordination with the United States Department of Justice,” Baily posted in a lengthy thread on X.
“This is demonstrated by the move of the third-highest ranking member of the Department of Justice, Matthew Colangelo, to the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office in order to prosecute President Trump in December 2022,” Baily continues.
What’s more, Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg worked hand-in-hand with NY Attorney General Letitia James in pursuing civil litigation against Trump, which he used to campaign on.
During that campaign, Bragg promised “if elected, [he] would go after Trump.” Once he won election, he pledged “to personally focus on the high-profile probe into former President Donald Trump’s business practices.”
— Attorney General Andrew Bailey (@AGAndrewBailey) May 10, 2024
During that campaign, Bragg promised “if elected, [he] would go after Trump.” Once he won election, he pledged “to personally focus on the high-profile probe into former President Donald Trump’s business practices.”
Is Baily about to become Trump’s Attorney General?
end
A New High-Rise Building Will House LA’s Homeless In $600,000 Units
There are 278 units in the 19-story development known as the Weingart Tower. It’s intended to help people currently without shelter on Skid Row and it will be L.A.’s largest permanent support housing project.
The building will have an entire floor of offices for case workers, in addition to a list of impressive amenities: a gym, art room, music room, computer room and library.
Residents will enjoy six common balconies and a café.
It’s considered affordable housing, but the cost to build this type of project still adds up. Each unit costs nearly $600,000 and it’s being funded by taxpayers.
The $165 million project is receiving permanent financing from Proposition HHH, which voters overwhelmingly passed in 2016. The new tower is also receiving state housing funds and $56 million in state tax credits.
Several elected officials, including L.A. Mayor Karen Bass, attended a grand opening ceremony at for the building.
Building Tour
$600k per unit. Gym. Lounge. Cafe. Art. New tax-funded homeless shelter in LA:
This is beyond insane. NBC news reports There are 75,518 people are homeless in the county, and 46,260 in the city of Los Angeles, an increase from the 69,144 in the county, and 41,980 the city from 2022 as of Jan 23, 2023.
$600,000 * 278 = $166,800,000. That’s $166.8 million. And that does not include free property taxes, case workers, maintenance, utilities, insurance, food, police, clothes, doormen, or medical care.
If the county were to shelter the 75,518 homeless, the cost would be $45,310,800,000. That’s $45.3 billion, again excluding free property taxes, case workers, maintenance, utilities, insurance, food, police, clothes, doormen, or medical care.
And it would not stop there. Every homeless person in the state would move their tent to LA to participate.
Affordable Housing
This dear woke fans is what’s known as “affordable housing”.
Taxes have to rise to accommodate such stupidity. It makes me angry just thinking about this. For what? Does the city think this will cure the homeless problem?
Most of these people are some combination of drug addicts, alcoholics, mentally unstable, and physically unfit to ever work. And even if they did work, they would not be living in $600,000 units.
California Proposes Restraining Orders to Stop Thieves
More and more headlines look as if they are from the Babylon Bee. Let’s discuss the latest idiocrasy from la-la land.
Governor Gavin Newsom courtesy of the Hoover Institute
Hard working people are struggling to make ends meet due to rising inflation. And here we are offering $600,000 “affordable” units plus free food, medical care, etc. to drug addicts.
Think of the poor, nearly broke worker who gets up every day in his tiny apartment and drives a long commute to work eight hours a day so that he can pay for free healthcare for illegal migrants and $600,000 units for the homeless.
end
another sign of major problems in the USA economy
(zerohedge)
Allstate Reports May Pretax Catastrophe Losses Of $1.4 Billion
Allstate Corp. on Thursday reported May pretax catastrophe losses of about $1.4 billion.
The Northbrook, Illinois-based insurer said 14 events contributed to nearly $1.5 billion in catastrophe losses for May, with 70% attributable to five wind and hail events mostly in the states of Texas, Colorado, and Illinois.
A year ago Allstate recorded pretax catastrophe losses for May of about $885 million.
Allstate reached its $150 million threshold to report catastrophe losses in May, as it did in April when the company announced estimated catastrophe losses of $494 million from 11 events.
Losses for May were about $1.1 billion after tax, Allstate said. Total year-to-date pretax catastrophe losses were about $2.6 billion, the insurer added.
The insurer’s catastrophe losses for the first quarter fell 56.8% to $731 million.
Second quarter 2023 financial results for Allstate included net catastrophe losses of $2.7 billion, resulting in a net loss for the period of $1.4 billion.
With monthly catastrophe losses, the insurer had also been giving monthly updates on implemented home and auto insurance rate increases.
“Everything Is Frozen”: Third-Day Of Cyberattack Leaves 15,000 Auto Dealerships Crippled
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 02:40 PM
Over 15,000 auto dealerships nationwide face major disruptions due to an ongoing cyberattack for the third day, shutting down their backend management systems. This has halted sales for some dealers and forced others to complete transactions the old-fashioned way: by hand.
CDK Global, the leading provider of dealership management systems and digital retailing solutions, said cybersecurity breaches began on Tuesday. By Wednesday afternoon, CDK’s core systems were restored, only to be shuttered on Thursday after a second hack attack. This has made it nearly impossible for thousands of dealers to buy and sell vehicles this week.
“We cannot process paperwork. Everything is frozen, everything is tied up — we cannot move money back and forth to pay off cars, to finance our customers’ transactions,” Tom Maioli, who owns Celebrity Motor Car Company with dealerships across York and New Jersey, told CBS MoneyWatch. He said his business is “completely shut down.”
Maioli continued, “We cannot process paperwork. Everything is frozen, everything is tied up — we cannot move money back and forth to pay off cars, to finance our customers’ transactions.”
Consumers are being greeted with signs like this at auto dealers nationwide…
One of the largest Chevrolet dealers in South Carolina closed. On a Friday. Unheard of. Day 3 of the CDK outage. (via
On Thursday, X user Car Dealership Guy was featured on CNBC. He said the auto industry’s biggest question after all of this chaos is: “Will the industry continue centralizing and consolidating technology? This has been the biggest trend in auto retail.”
“It’s disrupting the entire dealership [industry],” says
‘s Yossi Levi after a cyberattack hit 15,000 auto dealerships across the country. “Will the industry continue centralizing and consolidating technology? This has been the biggest trend in auto retail.”
·
113.1K Views
"It's disrupting the entire dealership [industry]," says @GuyDealership's Yossi Levi after a cyberattack hit 15,000 auto dealerships across the country. "Will the industry continue centralizing and consolidating technology? This has been the biggest trend in auto retail." pic.twitter.com/oRTMYyPMfX
Such disruptions have forced back-office support staff to write orders and complete paperwork without computers (clearly first-world problems).
“My selling team can hand-write a buyer’s order,” Brian Benstock, general manager of Long Island City-based Paragon Honda and Paragon Acura dealership, told CNN.
There have been no reports (yet) of foreign adversaries involved in the cyber breach. Also, CDK has provided no timeline for when core systems will be restored.
A lingering concern is the economic fallout from this cyber incident, given the size of the auto industry’s size.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
Biden Haemorrhaging Voters In All Demographics: Women’s Support At 20-Year-Low
Analysis By The New York Times reveals that support for Joe Biden among women is at a 20 year low for any Democrat.
The polling shows that Donald Trump has an eight-point lead over Biden among women.
The turnaround is once again insane.
Four years ago, Biden led Trump by 13 points among women. Now, Trump has gained 21 points. The figures were gleaned from the Times’s average of more than 30 polls conducted since January.
The Times notes“Overall, twice as many women say they were better off financially under Mr. Trump.”
It adds that “Young women, a key constituency that Democrats are hoping to retain this cycle, were nearly three times as likely to say things were better for them financially under Mr. Trump than Mr. Biden.”
t’s literally because of grocery bills. Women do most of the grocery shopping in America, and they feel the effects of inflation every time they’re at the store. You can gaslight all you want, but the inflation is real, it’s painful, and women hold Biden accountable for it.
·
8,923 Views
It’s literally because of grocery bills.
Women do most of the grocery shopping in America, and they feel the effects of inflation every time they’re at the store.
You can gaslight all you want, but the inflation is real, it’s painful, and women hold Biden accountable for it. pic.twitter.com/JCeD6hbACO
The report also notes how Biden’s support among Black and Latino women is in free fall, calling it “especially striking.”
“He is winning among Black women in the KFF survey by 58 percentage points, but that represents a significant drop from his 86 percentage point margin among Black women in the approach to the 2020 election, according to an average of New York Times/Siena College polls from that election,” the report notes.
It adds that “Biden’s lead with Hispanic women has also shrunk substantially, to about 12 points.”
As we previously highlighted, Biden’s loss of support among Black voters as they shift allegiance to Trump is historic.
CNN data reporter Harry Enten expressed shock at just how much support Biden has lost among the demographic, noting “We’re careening towards a historic performance for a Republican presidential candidate, the likes of which we have not seen in six decades.”
Meanwhile yet another poll, this one from Quinnipiac, shows that Biden’s support among young voters is plummeting.
“Biden is out of step with young people on a number of key issues,” Aidan Kohn-Murphy, the founder of Gen-Z for Change, which was previously TikTok for Biden, told the Washington Post.
He called “the frustrations of young progressive leaders a barometer of widespread dissatisfaction among Gen Z voters.”
Pundits and Democratic insiders have suggested that the upcoming debate against Trump is Biden’s final chance to turn things around, and if he doesn’t he could be forced to stand down.
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH
END
SWAMP NEWS
Oakland, CA Mayor’s House Raided By The FBI
THURSDAY, JUN 20, 2024 – 09:20 PM
The FBI raided the house of Oakland, California Mayor Sheng Thao Thursday morning for an unknown reason, according to the US Attorney’s Office.
That said, law enforcement sources told NBC Bay Areathat the raid was one of four search warrants executed in Oakland as part of a larger operation involving Thao.
Other agencies involved include the IRS and the US Postal Service.
BREAKING: FBI agents raid the home of Oakland mayor Sheng Thao. According to an FBI spokesperson, the agency was “conducting court authorized law enforcement activity on Maiden Lane.” Local reporters say Thao was escorted out of the house. Agents were seen walking back and forth from their vehicles to the house. The FBI provided no other information. Thao is a Democrat and was elected in 2022, becoming the first Hmong-American mayor of a major city in America. Thao is facing a recall vote as crime in Oakland continues to skyrocket. She is just 38-years-old.
0:29
·
3M Views
BREAKING: FBI agents raid the home of Oakland mayor Sheng Thao.
According to an FBI spokesperson, the agency was "conducting court authorized law enforcement activity on Maiden Lane."
Local reporters say Thao was escorted out of the house. Agents were seen walking back… pic.twitter.com/YushmSxPN5
FBI NOW CLEAR FROM OAKLAND MAYOR SHENG THAO’S HOUSE. Good law-enforcement source tells me this is a public corruption investigation of Thao and her boyfriend.
FBI NOW CLEAR FROM OAKLAND MAYOR SHENG THAO’S HOUSE. Good law-enforcement source tells me this is a public corruption investigation of Thao and her boyfriend. pic.twitter.com/LnQbrs3NPp
“It’s All Rigged”: Alvin Bragg Drops All Charges For Columbia Protesters Who Took Over Building
FRIDAY, JUN 21, 2024 – 12:00 PM
While Donald Trump had a white collar misdemeanor upgraded to a felony by Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg, dozens of pro-Palestinian protesters who wreaked havoc at Columbia university have had their charges dropped, while 13 more will have their charges dropped if they keep out of trouble for the next six months.
Police arrested46 protesters who broke into Hamilton Hall, barricaded themselves inside, and then wrecked the joint.
During a hearing at the Manhattan Criminal Courthouse on Thursday, prosecutor Stephen Millan cited ‘prosecutorial discretion’ in their decision not to move forward with charges – arguing that protesters wore masks and covered surveillance cameras, therefore insufficient evidence existed to show that any individual defendant damaged property or injured anyone. Millan also noted that no police officers were injured during the arrests, and that none of the people arrested had criminal records.
“All these matters are dismissed and sealed in the interest of justice,” Judge Kevin McGrath announced at the end of the hearing, where dozens of defendants and their supporters appeared with keffiyeh scarves around their shoulders.
Prosecutors declined to outright drop trespass charges against 13 other people arrested inside Hamilton Hall that night. Two of the 13 were also Columbia students, while the other 11 had no current affiliation with the school, although most were alumni.
The district attorney’s office proposed the 13 accept an adjournment in contemplation of dismissal, a provision in New York law that if accepted means the case against a defendant will be dropped and sealed in six months if they are not arrested for another offense in the interim. -Reuters
The 13 protesters offered the deal all rejected the offer via their lawyers, who are seeking to have those cases dismissed. They are due to return to court on July 25, by which date prosecutors will need to decide whether they’re willing to proceed to trial.
“It’s all rigged,” said Trump adviser and founder of America First Legal, Stephen Miller.
Bank of England keeps rates at 5.25% ahead of UK election
ESUs rallied sharply from the Nikkei opening until they hit a daily high of 5588.00 at 3:30 ET. A modest spike higher occurred when the SNB rate cut hit the tape. Within seconds, ESUs commenced a decline that took ESUs to 5578.00 at 3:55 ET. ESUs then plodded higher on traders’ hopes for a BoE rate cut.
BOE Leaves Key Rate at 5.25%; EST. 5.25% – BBG 7:00 ET
Bank of England keeps rates at 5.25% ahead of UK election (July 4) The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 to keep rates on hold, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll… “We need to be sure that inflation will stay low and that’s why we’ve decided to hold rates at 5.25% for now,” he (BoE Gov. Bailley) said… https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/bank-england-keeps-rates-525-ahead-uk-election-2024-06-20/
After the BoE stayed put, the usual suspects quickly proclaimed that the BoE only refrained from cutting rates due to the election. It didn’t want to be or look political. Thus, the BoE will cut in August for sure.
BoE Leaves Rates on Hold, Hinting at Readiness for Cuts – BBG 7:12 ETPolicy makers says decision not to cut was ‘finely balanced’Traders price in more than 50% chance of August rate reduction ESUs hit 5584.50 at 7:07 ET on the spin that the BoE indicated it would cut in August. But the same exact spin occurred in May when the BoE stayed put. The usual suspects said the ‘hold’ means the BoE will surely cut rates in June! Alas, a critical mass of traders didn’t see the ‘for sure’ rate cut in August.
ESUs sank to 5563.75 at 9:31 ET. Conditioned buyers bought the NYSE opening dip. The usual suspects then followed; ESUs jumped to 5576.75 at 9:48 ET. Alas, a dump appeared; ESUs tumbled to a new daily low of 5559.00 at 10:13 ET. After a bounce to 5570.75 at 11:08 ET, ESUs slid to a new daily low of 5525.50 at 13:36 ET. After a rally to 5555.75 at 14:32 ET, ESUs slid to 5531.50 at 14:21 ET.
Buying for the late manipulation conflated with buying for tomorrow’s June expiration. ESUs rallied to 5551.25 at 15:53 ET and then declined to 5541.00 at 16:00 ET.
After hitting a high of 120 18/32 at 8:28 ET, USUs tumbled to a daily low of 119 8/32 at 9:34 ET. The people that bought bonds on the SNB rate cut and hype of a ‘fur sure’ August BoE rate cut got hammered.
Precious and industrial metals rallied sharply; gasoline soared while oil rallied moderately. But bonds sank. Wait? How can bonds sink when commodities go jiggy on the universal belief that central banks will cut rates in the near term? Hint: The 38-year Grand Super Cycle Bond Bull Market ended in 3/20.
Rate cuts used to get the universe jiggy for bonds. Now, psychology has changed because the environment has changed. The inflation genie is out of the bottle, and he is more virulent and pernicious than deep fake US government economic data indicates. Now a critical mass of bond traders, but not equity traders yet, fear rate hikes will generate more inflation. Down go bonds!
PS – We did not see one fin media report that provided a reason for the decline in bonds. Many people cannot comprehend the notion that central bank rate cuts could be bad for bonds.
S&P 500 Rally Stalls Near 5,500 as US Yields Climb The S&P 500 briefly topped the historic 5,500 mark. The Nasdaq 100 fell after a seven-day rally… Traders are betting the Bank of England will cut interest rates in August after policymakers signaled they are willing to start easing monetary policy… While the S&P 500 is marching from one record to the next, fewer and fewer stocks are participating in this year’s rally. Nearly a third of its constituents have hit a one-month low in the past month, data compiled by Bloomberg through the end of last week show. That far outnumbers those that are pushing it higher. In fact, just 3.2% hit a one-month high… In the last three months, the 10 largest stocks in the index (S&P 500) by market capitalization — mostly tech giants — have posted a median gain of 17%, while the rest have lost 1.3%… The NYSE advance-decline line… closed at a fresh six-week low on Friday. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/asian-equities-slip-traders-search-224147804.html
We warned in Thursday’s missive that 3% Nvidia rally in Europe on Wednesday, while US markets were closed, was an excellent set up for a downside reversal (grand pump & dump). Nvidia hit 140.76 at 9:42 ET. The dump pushed NVDA down to 136.13 at 10:20 ET. Conditioned buying took NVDA to 139.53 at 11:08 ET. It then rolled over and hit a daily low of 129.52 at 13:35 ET. NVDA then traded sideways.
US Initial Jobless Claims 238k, 235k expected, prior 243k from 242k Continuing Claims 1.828m, 1.818m expected, prior 1.813m from 1.82m
The usual suspects proclaimed the 5k declinein Jobless Claims and the 3k increase in Continuing Claims augured for a Fed rate cut! You can’t make this up!
US Housing Starts hit a 47-month low of 1.277m (1.37m exp.) in May. April to 1.352m from 1.36m
The DJTA rallied sharply on strength in land transportation stocks. We saw no impact news on these stocks. Perhaps it’s valuation buying, because the DJTA & DJIA have greatly lagged other indices.
@unusual_whales: The US economy is in a ‘selective recession’ as lower-income consumers can’t cover the cost of living, JPMorgan has said. (Inflation, especially food inflation, will do this.)
Hollywood Arby’s closes after 55 years over California’s $20 minimum wagehttps://t.co/QV9uYBA8Sx
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA rallied smartly
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered, led by Nvidia ESUs declined sharply – they usually rally on the day prior an expiration. Commodities soared while bond sank on fear that rate cuts would enrage the Inflation Genie.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Do a critical mass of investors & traders fear that rate cuts will ignite inflation and hurt bonds?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5478.11 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5505.53, 5455.56
Axios’ @BarakRavid: White House spokesman John Kirby: Netanyahu’s video was very disappointing, perplexing, and vexing. We expressed our concern to the Israeli government at different levels. You have to ask Netanyahu what he was thinking. Netanyahu responds: “I am ready to suffer personal attacks provided that Israel receives from the US the ammunition it needs in the war for its existence.”
Missouri AG @AGAndrewBailey: I filed suit against IBM for violating the Missouri Human Rights Act. IBM not only subjects job applicants to unlawful racial quotas, but bases current employees’ pay on whether they participate in IBM’s corporate racism. Outrageous – and illegal. THREAD: https://x.com/AGAndrewBailey/status/1803794767991509020
@JamesOKeefeIII: Senior Vice President at The Walt Disney Company details discriminatory hiring practices: “Nobody else is going to tell you this, but they’re not considering any white males for the job,” says Michael Giordano, a Vice President of Business affairs, “there’s no way we’re hiring a white male.” Giordano reveals Disney uses “code words and buzzwords” to avoid legal action and even mentions a candidate being rejected for not looking black enough. Giordano also admits Disney gives bonuses to executives for practicing Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), agreeing that “diversity helps with financial incentives.” Giordano further claims he’s been denied promotions due to his race. Stay tuned for The Disney Tapes: https://x.com/JamesOKeefeIII/status/1803833834946883901
@crystalandqueue: The CDC schedule now has 99 vaccines listed from newborn to 18 years of age. 𝗖𝗗𝗖𝗖𝗵𝗶𝗹𝗱𝗵𝗼𝗼𝗱𝗩𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗲𝗦𝗰𝗵𝗲𝗱𝘂𝗹𝗲:1983 = 10 vaccines; 2013 = 32 vaccines; 2022 = 74 vaccines 𝗔𝘂𝘁𝗶𝘀𝗺𝗥𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘀:1983 = 1 in 10,000; 2013 = 1 in 88; 2022 = 1 in 36 Autism prevalence has increased 317% since 2000.
@BillAckman: When my last child was born, on the first day of her life we were told that she needed a HepB vaccine… My older three daughters did not receive the vaccine at birth. Those that question the growing, now 72-shot regimen for children are considered by some to be wackos and anti-vaxxers… Our society needs to complete a careful review of vaccine protocols including the risks associated with the cumulative effect of all of the vaccines we are giving children…
@StephenM: If the leader of the free world needs 7 straight days of continuous uninterrupted rest to stand for one 90-minute debate that tells you all you need to know about his fitness for office.
@DowdEdward: Biden & Trump debate next week. Let me reveal the likely talking points after the debate. Media Consensus: “He had to show strength and vigor tonight…that was more than accomplished! In stark contrast to the false negative attempts by Republicans to paint the president as an incompetent feeble minded old man.”
@ggreenwald: Recall: the first people to sound the alarm about Biden’s cognitive decline were Dem loyalists in 2019. They did so because they were worried he’d get the nomination and wasn’t capable of running.Once he was the nominee, they banned any mention of it.
Missouri @AGAndrewBailey: I will be filing suit against the State of New York for their direct attack on our democratic process through unconstitutional lawfare against President Trump. It’s time to restore the rule of law. (The Supreme Court has original and exclusive jurisdiction of all controversies between two or more States. It’s about time someone took this stuff to the SCOTUS!)
Richmond Fed Pres Barkin: No Question Frothy Asset Markets Supportive of Spending – BBG 16:29
Goolsbee: Don’t Need Annual Inflation to Hit 2% before Rate Cut BBG 16:27 ET Goolsbee: Fed Decisions Are Not about Politics, Elections (Protesteth too much!) – BBG 16:29 ET
Obama BFF and Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee has broken with his Fed brethren on the Fed’s 2% inflation target. This smells like panic from Team Obama about The Big Guy’s reelection prospects. (If DJT wins, beaucoup Team Obama-Biden members & allies could be investigated.) Goolsbee knows his remark about 2% inflation is political and it will be viewed as political. So, he felt the need to make the insulting and weaselly add on that the Fed doesn’t consider politics in its decisions.
Wall Street’s $5.5 Tillion Triple-Witching to Test Market Calm – BBG 14:05 ET.
Today is a summer Friday and June option and futures expiry; a massive amount of June options expire. Because most – by a large margin – traders are long stuff for the June expiration, it will take a massive effort to force stuff higher into what should be enormous retail liquidation. Traders expect June equity futures owners to replace their equity exposure on or near the NYSE opening, which is settlement.
If a whale or two does NOT surface to manipulate stuff higher, look out below! 5505.53, the S&P 500 Index high (all-time and from yesterday) is important resistance today.
NQUs are +25.00; ESUs are -0.25; USUs are -3/32; and gold is +6.57 at 21:15 ET.
Expected economic data: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 51, Services 54, Composite 53.5; May LEI -0.3%; May Existing Home Sales 4.1m
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5226; 100-day MA: 5161; 150-day MA: 5003; 200-day MA: 4836 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,732; 100-day MA: 38,812; 150-day MA: 38,140; 200-day MA: 37,058 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5473.17 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4750.24 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5153.73 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5381.90 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5503.19 triggers a buy signal
@Project_Veritas: Biden’s State Dept Official Admits Great Replacement is Real; ‘They Want to Change the Demographics of the United States’ – “Traditional, standard Americans are not leftists. Latin Americans are all leftists. This is just to try and change the demographics [of the United States] – U.S. Consular Officer “I wish people knew we were letting in criminals [to the United States] daily.” https://t.co/Q7NDsJmkHE
@KimberlyRobinsn: Justice Kagan has the opinion for a 6-3 SCOTUS which says probable cause for one charge doesn’t categorically defeat a malicious prosecution claim relating to another, baseless charge.
‘Typical Washington, D.C. Nonsense’: Veterans Sound Off on Pentagon Proposal to Force-Feed Troops Lab-Grown Meat – “The purpose of the military is to win our wars and to kill our enemies” Eric Greitens, former Governor of Missouri and Navy SEAL, told the Caller. “Trying to force troops to eat lab-grown meat to reduce CO2 emissions, is the height of woke nonsense. It’s such a stupid idea, that in any sane world it would be considered a joke. When you add woke nonsense like this to the debacle in Afghanistan, and the policy of kicking people out of the military for refusing the experimental COVID-19 vaccine, you begin to understand why the military is facing a massive recruiting crisis.” https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/20/veterans-pentagon-proposal-lab-grown-meat/?s=02
WSJ: This Judge Made Houston the Top Bankruptcy Court. Then He Helped His Girlfriend Cash In. – Law firm Kirkland & Ellis brought multibillion-dollar cases to David R. Jones’s court, aided by a local attorney who lived with the judge; ‘Why did no one look into it?’ (How corrupt are US courts?) https://www.wsj.com/finance/bankruptcy-court-houston-jones-freeman-dbba77e9
Nearly 80K DACA recipients admitted into US in first 5 years of program had arrest records: USCIShttps://trib.al/DdhyQCd
Social media teems with reports of rape, murder, and other violent crimes allegedly by illegal immigrants.
@ChrisMartzWX: You are going to read a lot of headlines this week from outlets like The Washington Post and CNN claiming the [typical] summer heatwave hitting the eastern U.S. is being “driven by climate change.” However, the actual thermometer data shows that the observed number of very hot days annually has been decreasing for over the past 100-years. The plot below shows the average per USHCN station percentage of days per year with daily TMax of ≥95°, 100° and 105° from 1895 to 2023. The trend is down. The top 15 years with the most days ≥95° are: 1936, 1934, 1954, 1980, 1952, 1901, 2011, 1930, 1939, 1913, 1925, 1943, 1937, 1956 and 1918. Notice that thirteen of those were before 1960, and only one has been in the last 40 years. So, anyone who suggests that heat extremes are increasing in the states is misinforming the public on what’s really going on. https://x.com/ChrisMartzWX/status/1803156204862185852
GREG HUNTER
War, Financial Collapse & CV19 Vax Awakening Close
Russia has a small fleet off the east coast of the United States. This includes a couple of armed submarines that have state-of-the-art nuclear weapons. These weapons can be launched from under the sea. Now, there is major pushback in Congress about how reckless the Biden Administration has been with arming the Ukrainians with long range missiles and then giving them the go-ahead to shoot them into Russia. Senator JD Vance is sounding the alarm and charges President Biden with “actively endangering our national security” with his new missile policy. How long will Russia allow the U.S., and its proxy Ukraine, to shoot missiles into the Russian mainland? Is it not fair for Russia to shoot missiles into the U.S.? If this is not bad enough, Congress has just passed a bill to register young people for the draft—including women!!! Tell me we are not close to global war. Keep voting Democrat.
The latest problem to pop up in the shaky global economy is a deeply troubled big bank in Japan that has to raise cash by selling off $63 billion in U.S. Treasuries. Will other banks front-run this trade and cause a cascade of bond selling? How about the 63 banks, earlier this month, that the FDIC said are in financial trouble? These insolvent U.S. banks have more than half a trillion dollars in sour debt. What makes it even more scary is the FDIC will not name the 63 troubled banks. What you are seeing are all the warning signs of a financial collapse. It’s coming, and it’s only a matter of time before the support is knocked out from under these insolvent banks. The question is how much time do we have? Financial writer Bill Holter says, “not much.” He will explain on Saturday.
The deaths and injuries from the CV19 bioweapon vax injections are not waning; they are getting worse each passing week. People continue to “die suddenly” and get heart disease and cancer at an alarming rate. This includes many young people and children who have been CV19 vaxed. Now, there is a new problem. Sky-high bills to go along with sky-high cancer rates. The bills are so extreme, even if you have insurance, you can be financially ruined. Yet another effect of the CV19 bioweapon vax murder and disability attack on “We the People.” Now, a new lawsuit is being filed by the Kansas AG against Pfizer for fraud, and four other states are jumping in, too. Pfizer has 63% of the CV19 vax market. Is this legal action finally going to wake up America to the crimes of the CV19 bioweapon attack that is still ongoing?
Financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. There are so many ways the economy can completely collapse that it is hard to imagine how much longer this can go on. Holter will explain just how bad it is.
harveyorganblog.com 
