GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $23.70 TO $2325.70
SILVER PRICE UP $0.01 TO $28.95
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2326.65
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $28.96
Bitcoin morning price:$61,132 UP 98 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $61,667 UP 633 dollars//
Platinum price closing DOWN $29.00 TO $992.50
Palladium price; UP $3.85 AT $937.65
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 10 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//JULY TO JULY
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 27 Jun 2024 10:20:46 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3186.33 UP 36.80 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1840.45 UP 19.42 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2173.66 UP 26.66 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JUNE 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,299.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/26/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 06/28/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
661 C JP MORGAN 150
690 C ABN AMRO 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 51
880 H CITIGROUP 94
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 150 150
JPMorgan stopped 0/150
FOR JUNE 2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 150 NOTICES FOR 15,000 OZ or 0.4665 TONNES
total notices so far: 30,665 contracts for 3,066,500 Oz (95.38 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR nil
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :1339 for 6.695 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $23.70 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.01 AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY REMAIN AT 438.178 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 438.178 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 6139 CONTRACTS TO 160,331 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS SURPSINGLY ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY GAIN OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET LOSS OF 5611 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD MAJOR SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 492 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY JUNE 4 AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, JUNE 7 AND AGAIN ON YESTERDAY’S TRADING
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 492 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.03) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 5611 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.03.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG SIZED 628 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.830 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD 275,000 OZ OF BUYER’S ASSUMED RISK OF DELIVERY
(EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 6.695 MILLION OZ + .275 MILLION OZ EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 6.97 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ MEGA HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 492 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 619 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 DAYS, total 21,615 contracts: OR 108.075 MILLION OZ (1200 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 85.185 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 108.075 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 6139 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 528 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JUNE OF 3.830 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO WHICH WE ADD THIS NEW 55 CONTRACT BUYER’S PURCHASE OF 275,000 OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JUNE 6.695 MILLION OZ + .275 MILLION OZ = 6.97 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 5306 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 492 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND SOME LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (492) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR nil OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9713 OI CONTRACTS TO 442,290 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 131 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (9900 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $16.95 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 89.94 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 20,800 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS BANKERS SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD ON THE THEIR SIDE OF THE POND. WE ALSO HAD THESE NEW AND CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 336 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO WHICH THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF DELIVERY
NEW STANDING 95.578 TONNES = 1.045 TONNES EX FOR RISK = 96.623 TONNES// ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $16.95 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6152 OI CONTRACTS (19.13 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3748 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 442,290
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6152 CONTRACTS WITH 9900 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3748 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6152 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1580 CONTRACTS,, PLUS THE ADDITION OF 336 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3748 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 9900 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6152 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 88.761 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0.6459 TONNES + 1.045 TONNES OF BUYER’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK PURCHASE.
//NEW STANDING /JUNE 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 96.623 TONNES
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1580 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 54,644 CONTRACTS OR 5,464,400 OZ OR 169.96 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3035 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 169.96 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 169.96 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.78% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 169.96 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 6139 CONTRACTS OI TO 160,637 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 528 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
JULY 528 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 528 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 6139 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 523 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 5305 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 26.565 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.67 PTS OR 0.90% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 373.46 PTS OR 2.06%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 325.53 OR 0.82%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.25%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2686 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2981/ Oil DOWN TO 81.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.70 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9900 CONTRACTS TO 442,290 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S STRONG LOSS WITH SOME LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND MAJOR SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW IN THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JUNE.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 3748 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 3748 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3748 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5965 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3748 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 9900 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $16.95/WEDNESDAY COMEX. HOWEVER LATE IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD THIS NEW AND CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 336 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 33,600 OZ OF GOLD OR 1.045 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER OF THESE CONTRACTS ASSUMES THE RISK OF DELIVERY WHICH PRIOR TO 2023 WAS AGAINST THE RULES OF THE COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 1580 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN WEDNESDAY’S RAID
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JUNE (94.930 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $16.95 //// BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6139 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 19.13 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JUNE (89.94 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 208 CONTRACTS OR 20800 OZ (0.6459 TONNES) TO WHICH WE ADD 1.045 TONNES OF BUYER RISK EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS.
NEW STANDING FOR JUNE: 95,,578 TONNES + 1.045 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 96.623 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $16.95
WE HAVE REMOVED 187 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6152 CONTRACTS OR 615,200 OZ (19.13 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 204,147 contracts//fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
JUNE 27 JUNE GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JUNE 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 32,023.860 oz HSBC . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nilOZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 150 notice(s) 15000 OZ 0.4665 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 63 contracts 6300 OZ 0.1959 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 30,665 notices 3,066,500 oz 95,38 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
customer withdrawals: 1
i) out of HSBC: 32,023.860 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 32,023.860 oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JUNE we have an oi of 213 contracts having GAINED 131 contracts. We had 77 contracts served on Wednesday so we GAINED A HUGE 208 contracts or20,800 oz additional ounces will stand for gold at the comex as they underwent an QUEUE jump to take delivery on this side of the pond. to which we add this new 1.045 tonnes of buyer’s assumed risk of delivery (exchange for risk)/new standing 96.623 tonnes
JULY LOST 64 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2015
AUGUST LOST 11,342 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 347,725 CONTRACTS
We had 150 contracts filed for today representing 15,000 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 150 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for June /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (30,665) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE (213 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (150 x 100 oz per contract( equals 3,072,800 OZ OR 95,578 TONNES. + 1.045 tonnes of exchange for risk = 96.623 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JUNE contract month: No of notices filed so far (30,665 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of June (213// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (150) x 100 oz which equals 3,072,800 oz (95.578 TONNES) + 1.045 tonnes ex for risk = 96.623 tonnes
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE: 96.623 TONNES WHICH IS ABSOLUTELY HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. JUNE IS TRADITIONALLY THE 2ND HIGHEST DELIVERY MONTH OF THE YEAR. FROM THIS POINT WE WILL GAIN IN GOLD TONNAGE WILLING TO STAND AT THE COMEX
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,682,975.981 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,566,608.023 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,834,327.184( 243.68 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,732,280.839 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,151,352 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.332 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUN 27/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JUNE 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 3954.43 oz CNT Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | 604,092.100 OZ ASAHI |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 30,225.210 oz CNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 0 CONTRACT(S) (nil OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 0 contracts (0.000 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1339 Contracts (6.695 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 1 dealer deposit
i) Into ASAHI: 604,092.100 oz
total dealer deposit : 604,092.100 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i)Into CNT 30,225.210 oz
total customer deposit 30,225.210 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 127.832million oz/296.895million or 43.13%
adjustment: 1
customer to dealer ASHAI: 1992.500 oz
Comex withdrawals: 2
i) Out of CNT 3008.18 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 732,396.072 0z
total withdrawal: 946.25 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 73.762MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 2968965
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JUNE/2024 OI: 0 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 3 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 3 NOTICES SERVED UP ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
JULY SAW A LOSS OF 13,763 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 12,680
AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 252 CONTRACTS TO 1106
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 7369 CONTRACTS TO 125,615
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 111,568 MEGA HUGE
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JUNE we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1339 x 5,000 oz = 6.695 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JUNE ((0) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JUNE/2024 contract month: 1339 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JUNE (0)x number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JUNE contract month equates to 6.695 MILLION OZ. + WE MUST ADD THIS NEW 55 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF BUYER’S EXCHANGE FOR RISK FOR 275,000 OZ. THIS IS THE FIRST TIME THAT THE COMEX ISSUED THESE EXCHANGE FOR RISK TO BOTH GOLD AND SILVER BUYERS.
New total standing: 6.695 million oz.+ 275,000 OZ = 6.97 MILLION OZ
There are 73.762 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 829.05 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 438.178 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
Alasdair Macleod…
It is important to study Glazyev to understand what Russia and the China will undergo as to remove the USA dollar from its finances
Alasdair MACLEOD….
Glazyev’s take on things and WW3
“The west declared a war against us… And now we are going to distribute nuclear weapons to anyone who can use it against the west” — Aleksandr Dugin
The reaction in Russian government circles to the cluster bomb attack in Sevastopol last Sunday clearly shows that the Russians are losing patience with NATO’s direct involvement in Ukraine. Having resisted the temptation to rise to the bait of NATO’s increasing belligerence, will Putin now respond like with like, his foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov having said that there will be consequences?
It is always a good idea to spend some time trying to understand how others see things. And nowhere is this more important today than in the misunderstandings between Russia and China on one side, and America and Europe on the other.
Looking for clues, this led me to read Sergei Glazyev’s book: The Last World War: The US to Move and Lose, published in Moscow in 2016. This is not a critique of that work as such, rather a commentary on our differences with Russia in the context of today’s geopolitical conflict.
Events have moved on in the last eight years since the book was published. It followed the 2014 revolution in Ukraine, which we know from US statements and Wikileaks was backed by the US. In a sense, the book is prophetic, in that as the title suggests events in Ukraine were propelling us towards a new world war.
Glazyev is one of two leading Russian economists regularly contributing to the Izborsky Club, a conservative think-tank of which philosopher Aleksandr Dugin is a prominent member. The Club looks back to the days when Russia was great, with its writers supporting the state’s control of public morality. There appears to be little condemnation by the Club of Stalin’s methods of ideological control, the absence of which is also reflected in Glazyev’s book.
It is said that members of the Izborsky Club influence Putin’s thinking. And we certainly know that Glazyev, Dugin, and other names less familiar in the West are or have been in Putin’s inner circle. Therefore, we can probably assume that the ideologies of Glazyev and other Izborsky Club members are broadly shared with Putin.
The philosophical basis of the Izborsky Club is that the state is supreme and that the people have a duty to serve the state. Russia’s sovereignty is all. It rejects political, moral, and economic liberalism. It seeks to promote a Russian order based on traditional values. It rejects western influences in education, Russian institutions, and in public morality. It has denounced Russian government policies in 2016 as being too centrist, harking back to the days of firm state control, the re-establishment of Russia’s welfare state, and of state planning.
This is precisely the opposite of the American constitution, where the federal state’s role is to serve the people — at least that was the original mandate.
Writers for Izborsky glory in the past —Peter the Great, even Ivan the Terrible’s control through secret police lauded by some, and perhaps Stalin and his methods as well. They appear to be influenced by two factors. Tsarist Russia remained feudal until 1861 when serfdom was abolished, and it remained a generally closed society to outside political influences until the revolution. And communism ensured it remained an autarkic nation until perestroika in the1980s.
The objective of foreign policy under Lenin, Stalin, and Khruschev in cold wars was essentially to protect the Soviet by undermining its enemies. The distinction between this objective and the west’s assumption that the Soviets were out to dominate the world is important. The expansion into Eastern Europe was simply a gift from Hitler’s failure. Soviet society and its institutions remained insular and isolated from the rest of the world.
The free market basis of economic development was therefore unknown to Russian economists. I remember well the one exception: a Russian economist who discovered the writings of Ludwig von Mises. Yuri Maltsev was an economic adviser on Gorbachev’s perestroika reforms, eventually escaping from the KGB in the boot of a car across the Finnish border. He told me that he had found Mises’s works overlooked in a Russia library. And for him, it was truly a revelation.
Maltsev was an exception. Economists such as Glazyev and his Izborsky Club fellow member Mikhail Deliagin were educated under the old soviet system, without the free market influences Maltsev discovered by accident. Today, Glazyev supports the Chinese model, whereby under state direction and regulation entrepreneurial activity is encouraged but always in the context of the furtherance of the state’s objectives. It shares the Russian philosophy that the state is both above the law (it cannot be prosecuted and there is no redress) and the Russian people.
Glazyev’s version of money
Glazyev came to our attention when he was appointed by Putin to advise the Eurasian Economic Union of ex-USSR states on an alternative trade settlement medium to the dollar. He followed this by up by writing an article for the Moscow business paper, Vedomosti, recommending that Russia re-adopt a gold standard, which had been dropped by Khruschev. Furthermore, there was strong evidence that Russia tried to get a gold backed trade settlement medium onto the BRICS agenda at the Johannesburg summit.
Given that there is next to nothing in Glazyev’s book which suggests that he has a true understanding of the difference between gold and credit, be it currency or bank deposits, one is left wondering if Glazyev’s promotion of gold is driven by an unstated understanding, or a reversion to earlier Russian gold standards as a means to an end: the end being to topple the dollar. Nevertheless, in common with China Russia has decided that gold is the strategic escape from dollar hegemony. It has accumulated both declared and hidden reserves and is boosting gold mining output.
Glazyev’s understanding that gold is money appears to come as much from tradition as from the lack of counterparty risk. The ultimate cost of the latter has been demonstrated by America weaponising the dollar against Russia and others who resist US hegemony. China has been an accumulator of gold since 1983, encouraging its people to do so as well from 2002, long before the US publicly felt threatened by the rise of China.
Geopolitical implications
If we take America of the Founding Fathers and Britain’s historic relationship between their governments and citizens, then the difference from Russia is stark. Fundamentally, it is the Anglo-Saxon view that the state serves its population instead of Russia’s philosophy that the people are there to serve the state, which fuels geopolitical misunderstanding today.
However, America and Britain have become heavily socialistic, refuting free markets and personal freedom. Today, we are comparing different socialist systems. Russia’s and China’s are modified communism, while the Anglo-Saxons’ are socialistic capitalism. America’s socialism is driven by corporatism, increasingly serving the interests of the armaments, banking, and pharmaceutical industries. Brussels, the seat of EU power has become a business lobbying centre. In Russia it is the other way round: the oligarchs are tolerated so long as they toe Putin’s line.
Despite the socialist convergence or maybe because of it, it seems inevitable that the two sides are now drifting towards greater conflict. The Americans with their currency have dominated global affairs since the early-1920s, when the US became Europe’s principal creditor. As the world’s unchallenged hegemon, her position is now being challenged by China, and her arrogant treatment of post-Soviet Russia has driven these two Asian nations into a marriage of convenience. A more measured approach by America might have prevented this happening.
The Americans’ mistakes stem from over-maturity of power, as Glazyev points out in his book by repeating familiar theories of long cycles of political dominance. The US first abandoned its founding principles of minimal state and free markets under President Hoover in the late 1920s followed by Franklin Roosevelt and his new deal. Until then, politicians in the US and the UK knew to leave economic intervention well alone. Today, following the Keynesian revolution the US and its western alliance intervene every which-way to supress the free markets that made Britain and then America great during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
Reasoned theories of economics, money, and credit, as well as subsequent performances of free-market economies such as post-war Hong Kong compared with communist command economies over the same timescale prove beyond doubt that if America had stuck to free markets and sound money, she would unquestionably have retained her global domination. Along with free markets and sound money, free trade guarantees harmonious foreign relations. The foreign policies of Lord Liverpool, Castlemaine, and Wellington following the Napoleonic wars laid it out: don’t intervene in other nation’s affairs except to protect your own trade interests. This is now being copied by Russia and China in their policies with trade partners today to their obvious mutual benefit, which is why compared with western hectoring the two Asian powers are attracting the global south into their camp.
The drift into a new world war
Some say that America’s attempt to topple Putin and take over Russia is in order to gain access to her vast resources. I think it is just as likely to be fuelled by a clash of cultures, with yesterday’s hegemon refusing to give way to a new Eurasian order. From this analysis, what is particularly concerning is the lack of common intellectual ground which is dangerously fuelling misunderstanding between nuclear powers.
America and NATO are being drawn into the Ukraine conflict increasingly overtly. Last Sunday, Russia was angered by a missile strike with illegal cluster bombs on Sevastopol, launched by Ukraine which they say was supplied by the US and guided by US satellite technology. For the Russians, this was a direct intervention by America. The provocation was all but a declaration of war.
In recent days, Putin renewed Russia’s arms supply agreement with North Korea, and reaffirmed her relationship with Vietnam — moves according to Aleksandr Dugin which recognises that
“The west declared a war against us… We are now at war, and the masks are off… We are now going to fight the west… And now we are going to distribute nuclear weapons to anyone who can use it against the west”.
As a leading contributor to the Izborsky Club, we can only hope Dugin’s seemingly extreme views are not shared by Russia’s leadership. But Sergey Lavrov, Russia’s Foreign Minister indicated that he considers all actions by NATO in Ukraine as an ultimatum against Russia. And now EU countries and the UK are talking about conscription or national service, moves which surely anticipate the drift into a new European conflict.
This is a situation rapidly drifting out of control. The Americans appear to be escalating the overall conflict with Russia on other fronts, reportedly sending a carrier fleet to the Eastern Mediterranean. The objective can only be to protect Israel from Hezbollah, a situation likely to extend to conflicts against Iran, now a close ally of Russia and China.
Aleksandr Dugin’s comments that Russia will now distribute nuclear weapons to its allies better not be prophetic. But perhaps we are now passing the point of no return
end
CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
end
4. OTHER MAJOR GOLD COMMENTARIES/PODCASTS/
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.67 PTS OR 0.90% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 373.46 PTS OR 2.06%// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 325.53 OR 0.82%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.25%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2686 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2981/ Oil DOWN TO 81.25 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.70 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2686
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2981
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.67 PTS OR 0.90 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 373.46 PTS OR 2.06%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 325.53 PTS OR 0.82 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.56 EURO RISES TO 1.0701 UP 21 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,056 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.50 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4655/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.034 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.407%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.692
3j Gold at $2318.60//Silver at: 28.96 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 2 AND 93/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.75
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 160.50/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.056% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8973 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9602 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.336 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.460 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.758 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.89…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.20354 UP 7 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Macro Tumbles, Consumer Weakness Spreads
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 08:21 AM
US index futures are down but well off session lows as Treasury yields stay at a two week high high this morning ahead of a flurry of economic data over the next two days which will help set the path for Fed policy. At 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.1% as ugly earnings from Walgreens confirmed the consumer weakness is spreading, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.2% after Micron’s disappointing sales forecast weighed on tech giants. Semis are mostly lower post MU’s earning as hedge funds continue to dump TMT/semi names to retail investors: NVDA -1.1%, AMD -47bp, QCOM -40bp. MU is down -5.4% pre-market, partially recovered from the initial 7% loss. Bond yields are flat while the USD is modestly lower. Commodities are mostly higher led by oil complex, ags and precious metals. Today, the key macro catalysts are Jobless Claims, Durable/Cap Goods Orders and the first presidential debate tonight, while tomorrow we get the closely watched core PCE figures. The figures come after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman yesterday tempered market expectations for interest rate cuts. We also receive WBA and NKE earnings.
In premarket trading, Micron slipped 5% after the largest US maker of computer memory chips provided a forecast that disappointed investors seeking a bigger payoff from artificial intelligence mania. Micron’s underwhelming outlook highlighted the risks of relying on artificial intelligence chip makers to fuel the stock rally. The shares slumped as much as 8% in premarket trading, dragging down a number of megacap tech peers including Nvidia (-1.1%), AMD (-47bp) and QCOM (-40bp). Walgreens Boots Alliance fell 12% after the drugstore chain cut its profit forecast for the full year, citing a “worse-than-expected” consumer environment. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- BlackBerry (BB) advances 9% after the security software company reported first-quarter revenue that came ahead of estimates.
- International Paper (IP) shares plunged 14% after Suzano SA ended its pursuit of the US paper and packaging company. That clears the way for International Paper to acquire UK rival DS Smith Plc, whose shares soared in London.
- Levi Strauss (LEVI) drops 15% after the company reported sales in its latest quarter that slightly missed expectations, underscoring Wall Street’s high expectations for the company.
Reports on economic growth and weekly unemployment claims are on traders’ radar Thursday before tomorrow’s key inflation figures, after Fed Governor Michelle Bowman tempered market expectations for interest rate cuts. Treasury yields held yesterday’s rise and a gauge of the dollar hovered near an eight-month high.
“It’s all about the Fed — higher for longer is keeping the front end of rates very high, drawing money into the US and keeping the dollar strong,” said Andrew Brenner, head of international fixed income at NatAlliance Securities LLC.
June has been a volatile month for Big Tech stocks after the meteoric rise of Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple accounted for well over half of the 15% advance in the S&P 500 this year.
Micron is among the companies that have gotten a lift from the mania for AI-related stocks, with its shares more than doubling in the year prior to its Wednesday report. But even with an outlook roughly in line with the average of analyst estimates, it was punished for not outperforming elevated expectations.
In another sign of investor concern about market concentration, we first reported that hedge funds “aggressively” sold tech stocks in June – the month in which Nvidia briefly became the world’s largest company – to retail investors. Semiconductor and semiconductor equipment stocks were the ones offloaded the most, according an analysis by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Europe’s stock benchmark dropped for a third day, with traders in holding mode ahead of Sunday’s French elections. The Stoxx Europe 600 index extended its decline after ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks said strong wage growth was standing in the way of faster rate reductions. Data earlier showed money supply in the euro region rose faster than expected in May, fueled by credit growth. Retailers are the worst performers on the Stoxx 600 as H&M tumbled 14% after it reported a slump in sales and said meeting a key profitability target had become tougher. GSK fell after US health officials delivered a fresh regulatory blow to its blockbuster RSV vaccine. Gucci owner Kering gained after a double-upgrade from Bank of America Corp. Here are all the notable European movers:
- Chip-equipment stocks are broadly higher in early trading after US memory chipmaker Micron forecast a material increase in capital spending for its fiscal year 2025.
- Serco shares gain as much as 5.9% after the UK outsourcing solutions company upped its guidance for full-year operating profit, based on solid performance in the first half.
- Kering shares rise as much as 4.8%, in sixth straight day of gains, after BofA double-upgrades to buy from underperform based on signs of better brand heat for the luxury group’s key Gucci label.
- DS Smith shares climb as much as 7.4% after Brazil’s Suzano ended its pursuit of International Paper, removing a complication to the US company’s plan to acquire its UK peer.
- Safran shares advance as much as 2.2% following an upgrade to buy at Citi, which says the aircraft supplier’s medium-term outlook continues to be “exceptionally strong.”
- Bunzl shares rise as much as 2.1% after analysts welcome the British distribution company’s increased full-year guidance as the benefits of acquisitions take effect.
- Watches of Switzerland shares surge as much as 8.4% after the luxury watch retailer’s earnings beat expectations and the company reiterated its outlook, which reassured investors.
- OVH shares jump the most since the cloud-services company’s 2021 IPO after announcing third-quarter results which were “better then feared,” according to Morgan Stanley.
- H&M shares slump as much as 15%, the steepest intraday decline since December 2017, after the clothing retailer’s second-quarter operating profit missed consensus estimates.
- GSK shares drop as much as 7.2% to the lowest since Jan. 2 after US health officials recommended restricting vaccination with its RSV shot to people who are older and more at risk.
- Salmar shares fall as much as 3.9%, hitting its lowest this year, as Nordea sets a Street-low target and says the Norwegian salmon farmer’s valuation is “on the rich side.”
- Currys shares slide as much as 7.2%, its steepest drop since March, after the UK electronics retailer reported FY24 results.
Earlier, Asian stocks dropped for the first time in three days, as sentiment in China soured with a major benchmark teetering on technical correction. Tech shares also dragged following declines in US peers. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.7%. Along with Chinese megacaps, chip stocks were some of the biggest drags after Micron Technology’s underwhelming outlook. Benchmarks in Hong Kong posted the biggest contractions in the region, while the markets in Japan, mainland China and South Korea also fell. A key Chinese stock gauge is poised for a technical correction — after falling on Thursday and taking declines from a May 20 high to about 10% intraday — as investors struggled to find catalysts ahead of a meeting of the nation’s top leaders next month. Beijing’s new measures to ease homebuying requirements did little to lift concerns about the nation’s tepid economic recovery.
In FX, the yen is up 0.2% against the greenback, taking USD/JPY down to ~160.50 after another warning from the Japanese Finance Minister. The yen pared some of the declines seen Wednesday after tumbling to 160.87 per dollar, the weakest level since 1986. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% against the dollar, after the Riksbank signaled it may cut interest rates as many as three more times this year.
In rates, treasuries are little changed on the day, with overnight price action within a narrow range leaving yields within one basis point of Wednesday’s close. Core European rates underperform slightly vs. Treasuries. US 10-year yields trade around 4.33%, near Wednesday’s closing levels, with bunds and gilts lagging by additional 1.5bp and 2.5bp in the sector. Treasury spreads are steady, largely holding Wednesday’s steepening move. The focus for the US session includes a heavy data slate headed by GDP and durable goods orders alongside weekly jobless claims, while this week’s coupon auctions conclude with $44b 7-year notes. Treasury coupon issuance concludes with a $44b 7-year note sale at 1pm New York time following decent results from both 2- and 5-year auctions so far this week. The WI 7-year — at roughly 4.32% — is 33bp richer than May’s stop-out, which tailed the WI by 1.3bp
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.9% to trade near $81.60 a barrel. Spot gold rises $15 to around $2,313/oz.
Bitcoin is flat and holds around USD 61k while Ethereum is incrementally softer and sits just below USD 3.4k.
Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes 1Q final GDP release, May’s advanced goods trade balance, wholesale inventories, durable goods orders, initial jobless claims (8:30am), May pending home sales (10am) and June Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). No Fed speakers are scheduled for the session; Barkin, Bowman and Daly are due Friday
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 5,530.50
- STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 514.53
- MXAP down 0.5% to 179.73
- MXAPJ down 0.5% to 564.62
- Nikkei down 0.8% to 39,341.54
- Topix down 0.3% to 2,793.70
- Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 17,716.47
- Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,945.85
- Sensex up 0.4% to 79,015.40
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 7,759.60
- Kospi down 0.3% to 2,784.06
- German 10Y yield +2bps at 2.47%
- Euro little changed at $1.0685
- Brent Futures up 0.5% to $85.67/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,303.70
- US Dollar Index little changed at 106.01
Top Overnight News
- Trump opens a large lead in the latest NYT poll (up 4 points among likely and 6 points among registered voters) while Quinnipiac has him up 4 points (and up 6 points when 3rd parties are included) and the Washington Post notes he’s ahead in 5 of the 7 important battleground states. NYT / WAPO
- MU -8% pre mkt as co beat on EPS/revenue, but free cash flow came in light and the guidance was only inline while the F25 capex outlook is very high. RTRS
- Beijing became the last major Chinese city to trim mortgage rates and down-payment requirements for home buyers, part of growing efforts across the country to resolve a long-running property crisis. Authorities in China’s capital said late Wednesday that they will reduce minimum down-payment ratios for first-time buyers to 20% from 30% and for second homes to 30% and 35% from 40% and 50%, respectively, depending on location. They also lowered the commercial mortgage rate by up to 55 basis points. WSJ
- The era of big paychecks for Chinese financiers is fast coming to an end as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign. The nation’s largest financial conglomerates have asked senior staff to forgo deferred bonuses and in some cases return pay from previous years to comply with a pre-tax cap of 2.9 million yuan ($400,000). BBG
- Japanese authorities will take necessary actions on currencies, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said on Thursday, signaling readiness to intervene in the exchange-rate market after the yen’s slide to a fresh 38-year low against the dollar. “It’s desirable for exchange rates to move stably. Rapid, one-sided moves are undesirable. In particular, we’re deeply concerned about the effect on the economy,” Suzuki told reporters. RTRS
- NATO will offer Ukraine a new headquarters to manage its military assistance at its upcoming 75th anniversary summit in Washington, officials said, an assurance of the alliance’s long-term commitment to the country’s security that has been heralded as a “bridge” to Kyiv’s eventual membership. NYT
- Evidence is growing that Russia is building a ghost fleet to ship LNG around the world, as it did for oil, transferring ownership of at least eight vessels to little-known companies in Dubai. The ships may help Moscow bypass curbs and fund its war machine. BBG
- An attempted coup in Bolivia was subdued after just three hours and former General Juan Jose Zuniga, who led rebel troops in storming the presidential palace, was arrested. BBG
- UBS will create a new unit in its global wealth management arm, to be headed by former Credit Suisse banker Yves-Alain Sommerhalder. JPMorgan veteran Michael Camacho will head wealth management in the US as part of the push. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were negative amid this week’s choppy tech performance with headwinds from higher yields. ASX 200 was pressured with real estate leading the declines amid higher yields and firmer inflation expectations. Nikkei 225 failed to benefit from stronger-than-expected retail sales with the mood dampened amid rate hike bets for the BoJ’s July meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded lower with underperformance in Hong Kong amid pressure in tech and consumer stocks, while the mainland was also pressured as China’s financial industry elites face USD 400k pay caps and bonus clawbacks under President Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign.
Top Asian News
- Some bond market participants who met with the BoJ this month, called on the bank to trim bond purchases in several stages to enhance market liquidity, according to minutes of the meeting cited by Reuters.
- BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said weak JPY is upward factor for prices, closely monitoring in conducting monpol.
- Japanese Government says economy in moderate recovery although it appears to be pausing recently, maintaining the same view for 5 months; warns on risks of elevated interest rates in the West affecting the weak Yen.
- China’s financial elite reportedly face USD 400k pay caps and bonus clawbacks as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign, according to Bloomberg.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said won’t comment on FX levels and that FX stability is desirable, while he is watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and is deeply concerned about the FX impact on the economy. Furthermore, Suzuki said they will take necessary actions on FX, as well as noted that rapid and one-sided moves are undesirable.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi won’t comment on forex levels and potential FX intervention but said they will take appropriate steps on excessive FX moves and it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, while he added that rapid FX moves are undesirable.
- S&P China rating affirmed at A+/A-1; outlook stable; says ratings on China reflect country’s policy settings that will likely maintain robust economic growth and strong external metrics
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C), are mixed in what has been a lacklustre and rangebound session thus far. European sectors are mixed, with Energy taking the top spot, benefiting from broader strength within the underlying crude complex. To the downside, Retail slumped after H&M (-11%) reported a miss across its results. US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.2%) are modestly softer across the board, with sentiment slightly more subdued than peers in Europe.
Top European News
- ECB’s Kazimir says “I expect a quiet summer on ECB rates”; can expect one more rate cut this year.
- UK Labour Party secured a fresh letter of support from business leaders backing plans to overhaul the “apprenticeship levy” if the party wins next week’s UK general election, according to FT.
- BoE Financial Stability Report (June): Risks to the UK financial system are broadly unchanged since Q1. But some asset prices have continued to rise and the risk of a sharp correction persists.
- Riksbank maintains its Rate at 3.75% as expected; if inflation prospects remain the same, the policy rate can be cut two or three times during H2’24.
FX
- DXY is steady around the 106 mark ahead of today’s US data points, which could ignite some price action for the USD; though, much of the focus will be on US PCE on Friday.
- EUR/USD is stuck on a 1.06 handle after making a new monthly low on Wednesday at 1.0666, it can be noted there is a lot of option activity for the pair due to roll off at the NY fix.
- GBP is a touch firmer vs. USD and EUR. UK-specific newsflow remains light ahead of next week’s general election. Cable remains around recent lows with technicians noting that the 50 and 100DMAs at 1.2639 and 1.2640 have now flipped to resistance.
- JPY is marginally firmer vs. the USD but price action is limited compared to yesterday’s moves which sent the pair to a 38 year high of 160.87; currently sitting around 160.50.
- Antipodeans are both modestly outperforming vs the Dollar, with the Aussie slightly more in a contamination of the post-CPI strength. AUD/USD has risen to a 0.6672 peak with yesterday’s high at 0.6688.
- SEK is softer vs. peers after a dovish tweak to forward guidance from the Riksbank alongside their decision to stand pat on rates.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1270 vs exp. 7.2765 (prev. 7.1248).
Fixed Income
- USTs are down to a 109-28 base with the benchmark on a gradual downward path once the fleeting upside from Wednesday’s strong 5yr sale dissipated; 7yr tap this evening. Overnight, Treasuries came under pressure alongside a move lower in JGBs as the latter extended below 143.00 to a 142.58 base.
- An incrementally softer start with Bunds losing the 132.00 handle between the close & open, seemingly following JGBs & USTs at the time, and have since slipped slightly further to a 131.68 WTD base.
- Gilts are the modest underperformer, having opened near the prior day’s worst, before extending lower to a 97.93 base; As for the election, the final TV debate added little with polls cementing on a convincing Labour victory.
- Italy sells EUR 7.0bln vs exp. 6.0-7.0bln 3.35% 2029 & 3.85% 2034 BTP and EUR 1.75bln vs exp. EUR 1.25-1.75bln 2032 CCTeu
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks have bounced in the European morning after a contained APAC session but remain within the confines of Wednesday’s relatively choppy trade. Brent Aug currently just shy of USD 86/bbl.
- Precious metals are slightly firmer given the tepid tone and softer dollar. However, the yellow metal is stuck at the USD 2300/oz mark after losing the figure on Wednesday and slipping to a USD 2293/oz base.
- Base metals are modestly in the red in-fitting with the broader risk tone. Specifics have been relatively sparse with overall macro developments somewhat light thus far.
- Ilsky Refinery in Russia works in normal mode, via Interfax.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israeli Cabinet member Dichter says “We are preparing for all possibilities in the north and we will go to war when the time comes”, via AJA Breaking
- Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said after meeting with US National Security Adviser Sullivan that significant progress has been made on the issue of the equipping and armaments that Israel needs.
- Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said Israel does not want a war in Lebanon and prefers a diplomatic solution, but cannot accept Hezbollah ‘military formations’ on its border, while he warned that Israel’s military is capable of taking Lebanon ‘back to the Stone Age’ but added that they don’t want to do that. Furthermore, Gallant reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to a ceasefire-hostages deal laid out by US President Biden and discussed with US officials ‘Day After’ proposals for post-war Gaza.
- Israel and the US are concerned that Iran will try to develop its nuclear technology including weapons efforts in the weeks leading up to the US presidential election, according to officials cited by Axios.
- Israeli warplane fired 2 air-to-surface missiles at a two-story building which caused the building to collapse and damaged surrounding structures, while at least 5 civilians were injured by the Israeli airstrikes on the building in Lebanon’s Nabatieh, according to Xinhua.
- Syrian state TV reported explosions from an Israeli airstrike on the capital of Damascus.
Geopolitics: Other
- North Korea said it successfully conducted an important test in advancing missile technology with the test aimed at developing a multiple warhead missile, according to KCNA. However, it was later reported that the South Korean military said North Korea’s claim of a successful missile test on Wednesday is a deception and exaggeration.
- Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says western politicians will not be able to shelter in bunkers if it comes to a nuclear conflict, via Tass. Russia could amend the nuclear doctrine in the future, accounting for Ukraine experiences. Already taking measures in response to the US involvement in strikes on Sevastopol.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: 1Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 1.4%, prior 1.3%
- 1Q GDP Price Index, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
- 1Q Personal Consumption, est. 2.0%, prior 2.0%
- 1Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 3.6%, prior 3.6%
- 08:30: May Durable Goods Orders, est. -0.5%, prior 0.6%
- May Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
- May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
- May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
- 08:30: May Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
- May Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
- 08:30: May Advance Goods Trade Balance, est. -$96b, prior -$99.4b, revised -$98b
- 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 238,000
- June Continuing Claims, est. 1.83m, prior 1.83m
- 10:00: May Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -4.6%, prior -0.8%
- 10:00: May Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 0.5%, prior -7.7%
- 11:00: June Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -2
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have struggled over the last 24 hours, with sovereign bonds selling off and equities losing ground for the most part. To be fair, it wasn’t all bad news, and a renewed tech advance did see the Magnificent 7 (+1.60%) reach a new all-time high. But otherwise, a cautious tone was set from the outset, as the upside surprise in Australia’s CPI on Wednesday morning meant investors started to dial back the chance of rate cuts over the coming months. Other economic data also surprised on the downside, and after the US close, Micron fell by around -8% in after-hours trading as investors were disappointed by its forecasts, and futures on the S&P 500 are down -0.33% this morning. Alongside that, markets are still attuned to several political events, including the first round of the French legislative election on Sunday. So there’s multiple risks that investors are thinking about right now, which is making it difficult for markets to gain momentum.
We’ll start with the sovereign bond selloff, since that’s been the clearest move over the last 24 hours, and came as investors became increasingly conscious about inflationary risks. Indeed, this week has already seen upside inflation surprises from Canada and Australia, and we’ve still got the US PCE numbers tomorrow, as well as some of the flash CPI prints for June from Euro Area members. In turn, that’s seen investors price out the chance of rate cuts, and the amount priced in by the Fed’s December meeting fell by -3.3bps on the day to 43bps. The effects were particularly evident in pricing for the Reserve Bank of Australia, where the chance of a hike at the next meeting in August surged to 34% after the CPI release there, having been priced at just 1% on the previous day’s close.
With investors pricing in a more hawkish stance of policy, that meant yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic. Significantly, it meant that French 10yr yields (+6.5bps) were up to 3.23%, which is their highest closing level since November, and the Franco-German spread also widened again to 78bps (having stayed in the 75-80bps range for nearly two weeks now). Elsewhere in Europe, there was also a rise in yields, with those on 10yr bunds (+4.3bps), BTPs (+6.9bps) and gilts (+5.3bps) all moving higher as well. Meanwhile in the US, the 10yr Treasury yield (+8.1bps) rose to 4.33%, its highest level in two weeks. Treasury yields did see some stabilisation after a decent 5yr auction but still ended the day around the session highs. And with higher yields and the mostly risk-off tone, the broad dollar index rose +0.42% to its highest level since the end of April.
When it came to equities, the S&P 500 advanced +0.16%, leaving it within 0.2% of last week’s all-time high. But in reality it was another divergent performance between megacaps and the small caps. The Magnificent 7 (+1.58%) hit another all-time high, with Amazon closing above a $2tn market cap for the first time. But at the other end, the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.21%) lost ground for a second day running. So even as the S&P 500 saw little change, the equal-weighted version of the index underperformed once again with a -0.36% decline, with energy (-0.86%) and financials (-0.47%) leading on the downside. That weakness was evident in Europe as well, where the STOXX 600 (-0.56%), the CAC 40 (-0.69%) and the DAX (-0.12%) all lost ground.
Overnight in Asia, the main story has been the weakness in the Japanese Yen, which closed beneath the 160 mark yesterday at 160.81 per US dollar. That is its weakest closing level since 1986 and means it’s now weaker than its levels earlier in the year that saw the authorities intervene. Yesterday saw Finance Minister Kanda say that “I have serious concern about the recent rapid weakening of the yen and we are closely monitoring market trends with a high sense of urgency”. He also said that “We will take necessary actions against any excessive movements”. This morning trading, the yen has slightly strengthened again to 160.39 per US dollar as we go to print.
Otherwise in Asia, the main story has been of further losses overnight, with declines for the Nikkei (-1.08%), the Hang Seng (-2.04%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.51%), the CSI 30 (-0.41%) and the KOSPI (-0.49%). In terms of data overnight, Japanese retail sales were up +1.7% in May (vs. +0.8% expected), and in China, industrial profits were up +0.7% in May on a year-on-year basis.
Looking forward, there’s plenty happening in the political sphere today, and tonight will see the first presidential debate of the US election, as Joe Biden and Donald Trump meet tonight at 9pm Eastern Time. Over in Europe, there’s also an EU leaders summit taking place today, at which they are expected to sign off on some of the EU’s most senior positions following the parliamentary election. And in France, there’s just three days until the first round of the legislative election on Sunday, and an Ifop poll found that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally remained ahead on 36%, with the left-wing alliance behind them on 28.5%, and President Macron’s centrist group on 21%.
Finally, there wasn’t much economic data yesterday, although US new home sales fell to an annualised rate of 619k in May (vs. 633k expected), which is their lowest level in 6 months. In Germany, the GfK consumer confidence unexpectedly declined to -21.8 (vs -19.5 expected) having risen for the four previous months.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, preliminary durable goods orders for May, pending home sales for May, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s the Euro Area M3 money supply for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Muller and Kazimir, and the Bank of England will release their Financial Stability Report. Finally in the political sphere, EU leaders will be meet in Brussels for a summit, and a US election debate will take place between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
APAC stocks pressured after a choppy handover, MU beat but fell afterhours – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 01:34 AM
- APAC stocks were negative amid this week’s choppy tech performance with headwinds from higher yields.
- Fed Bank Stress Tests showed all banks passed, which paves the way for higher payouts.
- European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Wednesday.
- DXY pulled back below the 106 mark, USD/JPY remains above 160 and EUR/USD is stuck on a 1.06 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Consumer Confidence (Final), US IJC, Durable Goods, GDP & PCE Q1 (Final), Riksbank & Banxico Policy Announcements, Biden-Trump debate, Comments from RBA’s Hauser & ECB’s Elderson, Supply from Italy & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ultimately finished with mild gains as European weakness was offset once US trade got underway and with a last-minute boost seen heading into the market close with upside led by gains in the Consumer Discretionary Sector thanks to outperformance in both Tesla (TSLA) and Amazon (AMZN). However, the gains in the major indices were limited and the majority of sectors closed in the red, while Fed bank stress test results and Micron earnings failed to inspire futures after hours despite the latter beating on top and bottom lines.
- SPX +0.16% at 5,478, NDX +0.25% at 19,751, DJI +0.04% at 39,128, RUT -0.21% at 2,018.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Bank Stress Tests showed large US banks are well positioned to weather a recession and stay above minimum capital requirements, while all banks passed the stress tests which paves the way for higher payouts although they reported greater losses than in 2023 stress tests as bank balance sheets are riskier and expenses are higher.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were negative amid this week’s choppy tech performance with headwinds from higher yields.
- ASX 200 was pressured with real estate leading the declines amid higher yields and firmer inflation expectations.
- Nikkei 225 failed to benefit from stronger-than-expected retail sales with the mood dampened amid rate hike bets for the BoJ’s July meeting.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. traded lower with underperformance in Hong Kong amid pressure in tech and consumer stocks, while the mainland was also pressured as China’s financial industry elites face USD 400k pay caps and bonus clawbacks under President Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign.
- US equity futures (ES -0.3%, NQ -0.4%) were subdued amid the risk aversion in Asia and after failing to benefit from Micron’s earnings with the Co.’s shares lower by 8% in after-hours trade.
- European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY marginally softened below the 106.00 level but held on to most of the prior day’s spoils as catalysts remained light.
- EUR/USD nurses some of its recent losses but remained sub-1.0700 after ECB officials continued to point to further cuts this year.
- GBP/USD languished near yesterday’s trough after sliding from resistance around the 1.2700 level.
- USD/JPY mildly pulled back after yesterday’s ascent north of 160.00 to its highest since 1986 which spurred some familiar jawboning.
- Antipodeans lacked firm direction amid the subdued risk appetite and mixed New Zealand Business Survey data.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1270 vs exp. 7.2765 (prev. 7.1248).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures extended on losses to a sub-110.00 level amid higher global yields and with a 7-year auction due later.
- Bund futures remained subdued following recent selling and after prices gapped beneath the 132.00 level.
- 10-year JGB futures underperformed amid weakness in global peers and after securities flow data showed notable net selling of Japanese and Foreign bonds in the past week, while improved results from a 2-year JGB auction did little to spur a rebound.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lacklustre after yesterday’s whipsawing and bearish inventory data.
- Spot gold traded flat and languished near this week’s lows around the USD 2,300/oz level.
- Copper futures struggled for direction with demand sapped amid the risk-averse conditions.
- Codelco May copper production was at 103.1k ton which was 8.6% below the target of 112.8k tons, while Jan-May copper production was at 484.5k which was 6.1% below the target of 516.1k tons.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin eked mild gains in choppy trade as prices oscillated around the USD 61,000 level.
- US SEC could approve ETFs tied to the spot price of Ether as soon as 4th July, according to Reuters citing industry executives and others.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s financial elite reportedly face USD 400k pay caps and bonus clawbacks as some of the industry’s biggest companies impose strict new limits to comply with President Xi’s “common prosperity” campaign, according to Bloomberg.
- Japan reportedly plans support for the Philippines 5G network to counter China tech and the US is expected to provide money for the project, according to Nikkei.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said won’t comment on FX levels and that FX stability is desirable, while he is watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and is deeply concerned about the FX impact on the economy. Furthermore, Suzuki said they will take necessary actions on FX, as well as noted that rapid and one-sided moves are undesirable.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi won’t comment on forex levels and potential FX intervention but said they will take appropriate steps on excessive FX moves and it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals, while he added that rapid FX moves are undesirable.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Industrial Profit YY (May) 0.7% Y/Y (Prev. 4.0%)
- Chinese Industrial Profit YTD (May) 3.4% (Prev. 4.3%)
- Japanese Retail Sales YY (May) 3.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.4%, Rev. 2.0%)
- Australian Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations (Aug) 4.4% (Prev. 4.1%)
- New Zealand ANZ Business Outlook (Jun) 6.1% (Prev. 11.2%)
- New Zealand ANZ Own Activity (Jun) 12.2% (Prev. 11.8%)
GLOBAL NEWS
- Bolivia TV showed a vehicle destroying the door of the Presidential Palace in a coup attempt as troops gathered in the capital. However, Bolivian President Arce demanded that General Zuniga demobilise military troops, while armoured vehicles and soldiers later withdrew from the square outside the Presidential Palace and General Zuniga was arrested for a coup attempt.
- Brazilian Finance Minister Haddad said a continuous inflation target decree was negotiated with economic teams including the BCB, while it was also reported that Brazil’s monetary council expanded a subsidy program to allow export pre-shipment financing.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu reportedly ordered the resumption of working teams on the Iranian nuclear issue, while officials said the move followed new information about Iranian actions related to the production of nuclear weapons, and concerns that former senior defence officials had expressed to the PM’s office that the issue had been neglected since the formation of the government, according to Walla News.
- Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said after meeting with US National Security Adviser Sullivan that significant progress has been made on the issue of the equipping and armaments that Israel needs.
- Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said Israel does not want a war in Lebanon and prefers a diplomatic solution, but cannot accept Hezbollah ‘military formations’ on its border, while he warned that Israel’s military is capable of taking Lebanon ‘back to the Stone Age’ but added that they don’t want to do that. Furthermore, Gallant reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to a ceasefire-hostages deal laid out by US President Biden and discussed with US officials ‘Day After’ proposals for post-war Gaza.
- Senior US official said the US reaffirmed commitment to weapons supplies to Israel, except for one shipment of heavy munitions that remains under review, while the official said the onus remains on Hamas to embrace the ceasefire proposal.
- Israel and the US are concerned that Iran will try to develop its nuclear technology including weapons efforts in the weeks leading up to the US presidential election, according to officials cited by Axios.
- Israel is ready for an additional attempt to reach a settlement on the northern front, according to Al Jazeera. However, it was separately reported that Israel may have to take a very strong escalatory step at Lebanon, according to an army source cited by Israeli Channel 12.
- Israeli warplane fired 2 air-to-surface missiles at a two-story building which caused the building to collapse and damaged surrounding structures, while at least 5 civilians were injured by the Israeli airstrikes on the building in Lebanon’s Nabatieh, according to Xinhua.
- Syrian state TV reported explosions from an Israeli airstrike on the capital of Damascus.
OTHER
- North Korea said it successfully conducted an important test in advancing missile technology with the test aimed at developing a multiple warhead missile, according to KCNA. However, it was later reported that the South Korean military said North Korea’s claim of a successful missile test on Wednesday is a deception and exaggeration.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Labour Party secured a fresh letter of support from business leaders backing plans to overhaul the “apprenticeship levy” if the party wins next week’s UK general election, according to FT.
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE/AZERBAIJAN/ARMENIA
France gives weapons to Armenia while Israel supplies Azerbaijan
the players:
on one side: Armenia, Iran
on the other side: Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Israel (strange bedfellows)
French Weapon Sales Stir Controversy In The Caucasus
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 05:00 AM
By RFE/RL Staff via OilPrice.com,
- On June 18, France announced the sale of 36 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Armenia, leading to harsh criticism from Azerbaijan and Russia, highlighting the rising tensions in the Caucasus.
- Azerbaijani and Russian officials have labeled the arms sale as provocative, with fears of sparking a potential Third Karabakh War as regional hostilities persist.
- The transaction underscores the ongoing diplomatic feud between France and Azerbaijan, with France showing firm support for Armenia’s military strengthening and territorial integrity.
A cold conflict is escalating between France and Azerbaijan. And the latest twist in the tit-for-tat spat is heightening the prospect of renewed conflict in the Caucasus.
On June 18, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu announced the sale of 36 Caesar self-propelled howitzers to Armenia. The move immediately sparked vitriolic responses from Azerbaijan and Russia. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry called the sale as a “provocative” step that could revive the region as a “hotbed of war.”
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova echoed the Azerbaijani narrative, saying that “Paris is provoking another round of armed confrontation in the South Caucasus, and they are doing it in different ways.”
The Armenian Foreign Ministry brushed off the criticism, issuing a statement asserting that “it is the sovereign right of every country to have a combat-ready army equipped with modern military hardware.”
In recent days, Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry has reported several instances in which Armenian forces allegedly fired on Azerbaijani positions along the two countries’ border. Yerevan has denied allegations of initiating any gunfire exchange. At the same time, reports appearing in state-connected media in Azerbaijan have hinted at the rising potential of renewed conflict; one commentary published June 22 by the official APA news agency raised the possibility of a “Third Karabakh War.”
“The Armenian leadership, which did not draw any conclusions from its successive defeats in the military and diplomatic fields, has begun to exhibit a non-constructive approach,” the APA commentary stated. It went on to single out France as provoking confrontation in the Caucasus.
“In the 21st century, France, which still has the status of a shameful neo-colonial state, is trying to play the provocateur role it plays on a global scale, in the processes in the South Caucasus region,” according to APA.
As the APA statement highlights, Azerbaijan’s sharp response is connected to Baku’s deep antipathy for France, rooted in Paris’ strong support for Armenia throughout the three-decade struggle for control of Nagorno-Karabakh, a conflict that ended late last year with Azerbaijan’s decisive defeat of Armenian forces and the cleansing of Karabakh’s ethnic Armenian population.
The reaction is also linked to a chain of events since the start of 2024, in which France and Azerbaijan have taken turns antagonizing each other. In March, for example, French president Emmanuel Macron welcomed Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan in Paris, offering unambiguous political backing for Armenia’s territorial integrity and its efforts to improve relations with the West.
Resenting what it perceived as further meddling in the Karabakh peace process, Azerbaijan reportedly helped stir up independence sentiment that led to violent protests in May in the French Pacific colony of New Caledonia. Baku denied French allegations of involvement, but Azerbaijani media outlets did start assailing France’s “neo-colonial” behavior.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev appeared to take a backhanded swipe at France earlier in June when he raised the possibility of Azerbaijan creating a development fund to help small island nations.
The howitzer sale can be seen as France clapping back at Baku. But a feud that has been up to this point limited mainly to verbal sniping now has reached a point where, if not managed well, it could prompt actual bullets to start flying again in the Caucasus.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL /AZERBAIJAN
a good background on the new friendship between Azerbaijan and Israel
(Middle East Eye)
Azerbaijan: Israel’s ‘Oil For Arms’ Quiet Friend
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 03:30 AM
While many Muslim-majority states have condemned Israel for the conduct of its war in Gaza, Azerbaijan stands out for its relative quiet. Baku, which will soon attract more global attention as it prepares to host Cop29 in November, has long enjoyed closer ties to Israel than many of its near neighbors. In recent years, the friendship has blossomed further.
Israel is now the top destination for Azeri crude oil, while key weaponry for Baku’s victory in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war was supplied by Israel. But ties are driven by more than just material benefits, with shared geopolitical concerns, especially regarding Iran, further oiling the relationship.
Israel calls Azerbaijan a “strategic partner“, enjoying close historical ties. When Azerbaijan declared independence in 1991, Israel was one of the first states to recognise the new state. A small Jewish community in Azerbaijan, of between 7,000 and 16,000 people, ensures a cultural connection, but the political relationship has been the priority.
Benjamin Netanyahu became the first Israeli premier to visit Azerbaijan, in 1997, and since then trade and security cooperation has increased. By the mid-2000s, Azerbaijan had become Israel’s fifth-largest trading partner, with oil headed to the eastern Mediterranean and weaponry and other military material headed to the Caspian Sea.
Today, Azerbaijan, alongside Kazakhstan, supplies 60 percent of the crude oil Israel uses.
No criticism of Israel
Israel believes that having a Muslim-majority state as a partner might reduce its diplomatic isolation in the Muslim world. This has been particularly pronounced since the Gaza war began.
While most Muslim-majority states have been vocal in their criticism, the government of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has been surprisingly quiet. Aliyev met Israeli President Isaac Herzog on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference in February, and there has been no outpouring of public criticism of Israel since the Gaza war began.
Baku-based journalist and analyst, Rovshan Mammadli, even reports a “de facto ban on protests against Israel” by Aliyev’s authoritarian government.
Baku is not unconcerned with the suffering of the Palestinians. It recognizes Palestine and hosts a Palestinian embassy. It has been a vocal supporter of the two-state solution and, since the war broke out, supported UN resolutions calling for ceasefires.
But there has been a conscious balance to Baku’s line: expressing sympathy for the Palestinians without excessively criticizing Israel. For Baku, Gaza falls behind more proximate concerns, for which Israel has proven a useful ally.
The first is the conflict with neighboring Armenia. Having provided Baku with key weaponry to defeat Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh war of 2020, Israel has deepened its military partnership with Azerbaijan since then. Intelligence sharing between the two states has increased, while Israel has provided modern drone technology. Israeli companies have also rushed to invest in rebuilding Nagorno-Karabakh.
Israel’s support in the 2020 war was tied to Azerbaijan’s second proximate concern: its neighbor to the south, Iran.
Tehran backed Armenia in its decades-long conflict with Azerbaijan, despite it being a Christian-majority state fighting a fellow Muslim-majority state. This has contributed to frosty relations between Tehran and Baku and helps partly explain why Aliyev has been happy to forge ties with Iran’s long-standing rival, Israel.
The mutual hostility has even seen Iran backing Islamist groups in Azerbaijan, and Baku to encourage Iranian Azeris to push for separatism, without much success. Rather like its quiet support for some Kurdish groups in Iraq, Israel sees the value of supporting strong anti-Tehran forces on Iran’s border.
‘New chapter’
That said, Armenia’s defeats in 2020 and the collapse of Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 have changed Tehran’s calculus somewhat. Immediately after the war, it mobilized troops along the Caucasus border as a means to deter Azerbaijan from pushing deeper into Armenia to connect with its non-contiguous province, Nakhchivan.
Since then, Tehran has adopted less aggressive methods: concluding an agreement last year to allow Azerbaijan access to Nakhchivan through Iranian territory, to temper its ambitions of conquering Armenia’s “Zangezur Corridor”. They have also endorsed the possibility of a new rail link between Russia and India, via Iranian and Azeri territory, while officials have spoken of a “new chapter” in Baku-Tehran relations.
This might not erase the decades of tensions between the two neighbors, nor prompt Baku to halt its ties to Israel. However, Tehran may hope that if Baku feels less threatened by Iran, it will ease its closeness to Israel over time.
A more immediate source of strain on Israeli-Azeri ties, however, concerns Turkey. Far more than Israel, Turkey is Azerbaijan’s closest ally. Aliyev’s father and predecessor as president even described the relationship with their Turkic brethren as, “one nation, two states”.
Azerbaijan ordered the Sky Dew observational system from Israel. Sky Dew detects drones and missiles and was jointly developed by the US and Israel. AZ state media notes that use of the Sky Dew will reduce AZ’s monitoring costs.
·
36.6K Views
In 2020, Ankara provided key weaponry, though less than Israel, but also helped train Azerbaijan’s military and provided Syrian militiamen to fight in Nagorno-Karabakh. In contrast to Aliyev, Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has been vocally critical of Israel since the start of the Gaza conflict. Israel and Turkey have recalled their diplomats, while Erdogan has severed some trade deals.
Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute hypothesizes that Erdogan’s anger at Israel might ultimately “doom” Azerbaijani-Israeli ties, with the Turkish president demanding its ally respond more forcefully over Gaza.
However, while this is a possibility given Ankara’s importance to Baku, Israeli-Azeri ties are now deep and historical and Azerbaijan would be reluctant to give them up, even in the face of Turkish pressure. Baku will probably hope that a ceasefire is announced before any such pressure from Ankara emerges, allowing it to continue its close, quiet relationship with Israel under less scrutiny.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
It seems everyone is not paying attention to the uSA. Biden warns Lebanon that it cannot control or restrain Israel. That is for sure. Biden is one total nutcase
(zerohedge)
White House Warns Lebanon: US Can’t Control Or Restrain Israel If Offensive Starts
WEDNESDAY, JUN 26, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Among the more interesting positions which the Biden White House has recently articulated to Arab allies in the Middle East is that the Untied States cannot restrain Israel if it decides to launch new offensives, namely against Lebanon.
Axios has revealed that during his trip to Beirut last week, Biden’s special envoy Amos Hochstein warned the Lebanese government, “The US won’t be able to hold Israel back if the situation on the border continues to escalate and that Hezbollah needs to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of ratcheting up tensions.”
“The situation is serious. What President Biden wants to do is to avoid a further escalation to a greater war,” Hochstein had additionally said. “It will take everyone’s interest in ending this conflict now. And we believe that there is a pathway diplomatically to do it. If the sides agree to it.”
But what do the Lebanese see of US foreign policy? And what do Arab leaders and their population see? Israel has for decades topped the list of US foreign aid recipients, receiving a consistent $3+ billion annually. Washington regularly makes arms deals with Tel Aviv to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars as well.
Some Israeli leaders have lately gone so far as to admit that Israel’s military might not be able to persist in its Gaza operations without the steady flow of US arms and ammo.
But the US has even reached out to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah, via intermediaries, to warn that it can’t hold Israel back in the event of escalation.
“During his meeting with Berri in Beirut, Hochsteim asked the speaker of the Lebanese Parliament to pass a message to Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah, that his assumption that the U.S. controls Israel is wrong, the sources said,” Axios wrote.
“According to the sources, Hochstein said the U.S. won’t be able to hold Israel back if the situation on the border continues to escalate and that Hezbollah needs to indirectly negotiate with Israel instead of ratcheting up tensions,” the report continued.
The US and European partners, especially France, have recently sought to entice and pressure the Lebanese government to reign in Hezbollah, something it has very limited capability in doing. The Lebanese Army is in reality almost powerless in dealing with Hezbollah, also as it has no air force to speak of.
The US itself has imposed sanctions and limits on what aircraft Lebanon can obtain, fearing that it could be used in a conflict with Israel.
Metulla is burning following Lebanese strikes
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64.5K View
This week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is in Washington meeting with top US officials. On Monday he met with Secretary of State Antony Blinken wherein the top US diplomat reaffirmed that the US will continue aiding Israel’s military. “He also underscored the importance of avoiding further escalation of the conflict and reaching a diplomatic resolution that allows both Israeli and Lebanese families to return to their homes,” a State Department press release indicated. “Secretary Blinken reaffirmed the United States’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s security.”
And Tuesday, upon a meeting with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the Pentagon chief said, “I am extremely concerned about the rise in rocket attacks on Israel’s north from Lebanese Hezbollah.” He emphasized that “Another war between Israel and Hezbollah could easily become a regional war with terrible consequences for the Middle East, and so diplomacy is by far the best way to prevent more escalation.”
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
ISRAEL/PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
The PA are financially strapped. Yet Netanyahu does not want more radical elements taking control of the West Bank.
Netanyahu: Allowing PA to collapse not in Israel’s interest – report
“There is a need to promote actions that stabilize the Palestinian Authority to prevent escalation in the area,” Netanyahu said.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJUNE 26, 2024 22:21Updated: JUNE 26, 2024 22:49
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed a surprising stance in closed-door discussions, stating that the collapse of the Palestinian Authority (PA) was not in Israel’s interest at that time. This revelation came ahead of a crucial cabinet meeting that approved a series of sanctions against Palestinian officials and countries that recognized a Palestinian state.
In a confidential conversation reported by N12, Netanyahu emphasized the importance of the PA’s activities for Israel, despite his usual public criticism of the organization. “We cannot ignore the activities and actions of the PA; they have significant benefits for Israel,” Netanyahu said, as cited by N12.
He further elaborated on the potential consequences of the PA’s collapse. “The collapse of the Palestinian Authority is not in Israel’s interest at this time. There is a need to promote actions that stabilize the Authority to prevent escalation in the area,” he added, according to N12.
The collapse of the PA
The cabinet convened to finalize sanctions that targeted Palestinian officials and implemented economic measures against the PA. Additionally, the sanctions extended to countries that had formally recognized a Palestinian state, N12 reported. This came amidst a backdrop of a severe financial crisis for the PA, which had seen a drastic reduction in clearance revenue transfers and a significant drop in economic activity. The World Bank warned that the PA’s fiscal situation had “dramatically worsened,” with a financing gap projected to double to $1.2 billion within months.
According to the report, during the discussion, ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich pushed for increased Jewish settlement in Judea and Samaria, aligning with their longstanding political agendas. This development followed previous cabinet decisions to penalize the PA for its support of terror and actions against Israel on the international stage.
This move marked a significant moment in Israeli-Palestinian relations, indicating a nuanced approach by the Israeli government towards the PA, which could influence future policies and stability in the region. Analysts highlighted that the collapse of the PA could lead to more radical groups gaining influence in the West Bank, posing further security challenges for Israel.
end
ISRAEL
this should be interesting!
Court Orders Israel Army To Start Drafting Ultra-Orthodox, Compounding Internal Tensions
WEDNESDAY, JUN 26, 2024 – 09:20 PM
In an historic development that promises to fuel friction between different elements of the country’s society, the Israeli high court on Tuesday unanimously ruled that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) must start drafting ultra-Orthodox Jewish students.
Until now, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s commitment to maintaining the decades-long draft exemption has been a key means of earning the support of two ultra-Orthodox parties that are building blocks of his ruling coalition. While there’s nowhere for those two parties to flee in pursuit of restoring the exemption, the ruling seemingly removes one of the ties that binds the parties to Netanyahu.
In their 9-0 ruling, the court noted the ongoing demands of Israel’s 8-month-old war on Gaza in retaliation for the Oct. 7 invasion of southern Israel. “In the middle of a difficult war, the burden of inequality is felt more acutely than ever—and it requires advancing a sustainable solution to this issue,” the justices wrote.
As casualties have mounted in Gaza, long-simmering resentment of the exemption that covers some 1.3 million ultra-Orthodox Jews — or Haredi — has only grown. In addition to protests in the streets, high-ranking Israeli officials have called for an end to the special treatment.
“The war and the challenges placed before us… require us to share the burden of military service,” said Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in March. “Everyone must carry the burden, all sectors of the nation.”At the same event, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi declared that the Haredi exemption was undermining Israel’s “social cohesion.”
Haredi Jews in Jerusalem burn the Israeli flag in protest against the new Israeli government conscription law, which mandates their enlistment in the occupation army due to the war on Gaza.
0:05 / 0:51
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The draft is just one facet of the Haredi’s special treatment in Israel. Haredi men who are enrolled in Yeshiva schools — to study the Torah — have also received public subsidies that keep going all the way until they reach the country’s standard retirement age of 67.
That’s makes these men doubly detractive: They’re economically unproductive, while also draining resources from those who contribute to the country’s economy. Meanwhile, Haredi children are exempt from Israel’s educational standards. Since they don’t have to study core topics like math, science and English, they offer lesser skills to would-be employers.
‘We will die and not enlist’ Thousands of haredim who are affiliated with the Jerusalem Faction gathered outside the Jerusalem Enlistment Center on Thursday to protest against the enlistment of haredim to the IDF. Matanel Rahamim
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Tuesday’s court ruling also landed a broadside hit on the wealth transfers, declaring that funding of students who don’t have a bona fide military exemption are illegal too. Responding to the high court’s ruling, the chairman of one of Israel’s ultra-Orthodox parties reiterated the argument that Haredi men’s full-time study of Judaism’s holy books makes an important contribution to Israel:
“The Jewish people survived persecutions, pogroms and wars only thanks to maintaining their uniqueness, the Torah and the commandments. This is our secret weapon against all enemies, as promised by the Creator of the universe,” Shas chair Aryeh Deri told the Times of Israel. “[Yeshiva students] preserve our special power and generate miracles in the [military] campaign.”
Rather than resolving the issue, the ruling will likely inflame tension. “[It] creates an ongoing, endemic crisis that will probably continue to escalate,” Yohanan Plesner, president of the Jerusalem-based Israel Democracy Institute, told the Wall Street Journal.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
The author describes Putin’s cool headed response to the beachgoer catastrophe in the Crimea last week
(KORYBKO)
Russia’s Response To Ukraine’s US-Backed Bombing Of Beachgoers Wasn’t What Many Expected
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
President Putin proved once again that he’s mature enough of a leader to make tough decisions that disregard public opinion following his government’s tepid response to Ukraine’s US-backed bombing of beachgoers in Sevastopol over the weekend. It was predicted that “Russia Probably Won’t Impose A No-Fly Zone Over The Black Sea After The Sevastopol Attack”, which explained why it was unlikely to capitulate to the public’s demand due to worries about accidentally sparking World War III.
Instead of shooting down or otherwise neutralizing American reconnaissance drones over international waters in the Black Sea, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed that President Putin’s ceasefire proposal still stands. Shortly afterwards, Peskov also expressed Russia’s continued openness to talks with France after Emmanuel Macron publicly said that he’s interested in them the other day while also walking back his earlier rhetoric about wanting to conventionally intervene in Ukraine.
These two developments were then followed by new Defense Minister Andrey Belousov talking to his American counterpart in a call where “they exchanged views about the situation around Ukraine”. He also warned him about “the dangers of further escalation in terms of the continuing deliveries of American weapons to the Ukrainian Armed Forces.” Taken together, it’s clearly the case that Russia’s response was once again conciliatory and not escalatory, exactly as the earlier cited analysis predicted.
Interestingly, these developments were interspersed with the viral fake news claim that Russia had already supposedly downed an American drone over the Black Sea in revenge, which was introduced into the information ecosystem here but was then quickly walked back by its originator here. Nevertheless, this claim wildly proliferated across social media because it conformed to many wishful thinking observers’ expectations, most of whom never came across the follow-up post walking it back.
The reason why it’s so important to clarify exactly what Russia’s response to last weekend’s provocation was, namely to continue its conciliatory approach for de-escalation purposes as opposed to risking World War III by miscalculation if it reacted as the public demanded, is to prevent false expectations. Those who get their hopes unrealistically high will inevitably experience deep disappointment, after which some might become susceptible to hostile narratives that Russia “sold out” or whatever.
Whether one agrees with the merits of its saintly restraint or not, the fact of the matter is that this is indeed the policy that President Putin has decided to promulgate for the reasons that were explained. While it’s possible that he might order a symbolic show of force by authorizing the shooting down or neutralization of an American drone in the coming future, his tepid response thus far suggests that he’s disinclined to do so, or that it would solely be a one-off in the unlikely event that it happens.
President Putin isn’t a “madman”, “monster”, or “mastermind” like many imagine that he is, but is a consummate pragmatist at least as how he sees himself and is therefore unlikely to ever do anything that could be spun as emotional or radical. He always takes a long time before making major decisions, with the proof being how long it took for him to commence Russia’s aerial intervention in Syria and the ongoing special operation, usually waiting till the last possible moment.
Likewise, if Russia does indeed decide to seriously escalate against the West, then the track record suggests that it would be a seemingly abrupt game-changer but preceded by clear statements of intent that could be seen in hindsight as “ultimatums” (despite being described differently by its diplomats). Some might interpret a few of its recent signals as hinting at that scenario, but the substance of its response thus far as was explained dispels that notion and suggests that the current policy will continue.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Another good sign that cooler heads will prevail in this conflict
(zerohedge)
Austin & Russia’s New Defense Chief Speak For 1st Time After Crimea Beach Attack
WEDNESDAY, JUN 26, 2024 – 07:20 PM
In a rare moment which appears a somewhat positive development (or at least it’s not more immediate escalation), the US and Russian defense chiefs spoke by phone Tuesday for the first time since March 2023.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin initiated the call, and the timing is important given it comes following Sunday’s deadly Ukraine missile attack on a crowded Sevastopol beach which killed five people and injured 124 more, including children.
Moscow has blamed Washington for providing the long-range MGM-140 ATACMS systems used in the attack, and has even said Kiev likely had satellite and targeting help from the Pentagon.
The Guardian noted that “The two sides gave widely divergent accounts of the discussion – the first between US defense secretary Lloyd Austin and Russia’s defense minister Andrei Belousov.”
Russian defense chief Belousov warned Austin against continued arms supplies to Kiev, citing the dangers of serious escalation.
As for the US version of the call, the Pentagon readout was scant, only saying that Austin “emphasized the importance of maintaining lines of communication amid Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine.”
The Kremlin is still pointing to Washington actions as being behind an ongoing escalation:
Russia’s defense ministry said Washington and Kyiv bore “responsibility for a deliberate missile strike on peaceful residents,” which it said used US-supplied ATACMS missiles.
Russia further called it a “terrorist act” and according to more details:
Videos posted on social media showed people running from the beach as explosions went off and people in swimming outfits carrying a stretcher. AFP could not verify their authenticity.
A local news channel on Telegram, ChP Sevastopol, cited witnesses as saying that an elderly woman was killed as she swam in the sea.
But despite this, elsewhere there were other rare positives. On Tuesday Russia and Ukraine conducted a prisoner swap involving 90 total POWs.
Sunday’s strike involved cluster munitions dropping on men, women, and children at a Sevastopol beach…
This was the second biggest swap since May 31st, when the two sides returned 75 captives each. That exchange had come after a long lull in exchanges, and there is likely more to come this summer.
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
.
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
World Dangerously Headed For ‘Food Wars’, Top Commodity Trader Warns
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 02:45 AM
Sunny Verghese, CEO of Olam Agri, a Singapore-based agricultural trading firm, spoke at the Redburn Atlantic and Rothschild consumer conference last week, warned the audience that the world is heading towards a period of “food wars” as geopolitical wildfires spread across the globe.
“We have fought many wars over oil. We will fight bigger wars over food and water,” Verghese said, quoted by the Financial Times, adding that food protectionism has forced some governments to boost domestic food supplies, exacerbating food inflation.
He pointed out that a surge in non-tariff trade barriers in 2022 in response to the war in Ukraine—1,266 from 154 countries by his count—had sparked “an exaggerated demand-supply imbalance.”
Food prices have soared in recent years, whether due to adverse weather conditions (sparked by El Nino) or the war in Ukraine. These prices are likely to remain elevated for years to come.
Verghese said wealthier countries have been building surpluses of strategic commodities due to global uncertainty, which has helped push food prices higher.
“India, China, everybody has got buffer stocks,” he said, adding, “That is only exacerbating the global problem.”
The latest data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations shows that global food prices are beginning to rise once again and remain well above pre-Covid levels.
What’s clear is that the most impoverished countries are extremely vulnerable to surging food prices and shortages, and these areas are at the highest risk of social unrest.
However, wealthier economies aren’t immune, as we’ve seen evidence with US consumers pulling back on food spending while complaining about the failure of Bidenomics.
FT provided two recent examples of food protectionism that is likely to continue in the years ahead, exacerbating food security risks for the world’s most vulnerable:
In 2022, Indonesia banned palm oil exports to protect the local market while last year India imposed export restrictions on certain types of rice in an effort to curb rising domestic prices ahead of parliamentary elections, after a volatile monsoon disrupted production and spurred fears of a supply shortage.
The risks are skewed toward more food export curbs as the world splinters into a multipolar state full of conflict and chaos. Protectionism might be the worst thing for food security and yet another reason why prices will linger at elevated levels for the years to come.
This is yet more evidence that Americans need to ditch Walmart and the food-industrial complex and support local farmers so they can beef up local supply chains to minimize risks abroad.
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, June 17-24, 2024
Athletes: US (4), Colombia, UK, Ireland (2), UAE, India, China, NZ; “vaxxidents”: US (8), Canada, Mexico (2), UK, Germany, Spain (2), Italy (4), S. Africa, Malaysia, NZ (2); & more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERJUN 27 |
Note: Click on the countries links for this week’s compilations of those who “died suddenly” (the individual Substacks are too long to email).
United States
Canada
Mexico, Trinidad, Barbados, Colombia, Peru, Suriname, Brazil and Argentina
Mexico:
Peru:
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Argentina:
United Kingdom and Ireland
France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Switzerland, Norway, Denmark, Serbia, Bosnia, Albania and Spain
Germany:
Italy
Egypt, Kenya, Zimbabwe, S. Africa, UAE, Turkey, Armenia, India, Bangladesh, Singapore, China, S. Korea, Philippines, Malaysia, Australia, & New Zealand
South Africa:
Singapore:
N
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Two Belgium Brussels locations remain the ‘FINISHING’ school for terrorists, most major terror attacks begin here, most devastating terrorists touch Molenbeek in some manner
Schaerbeek & Molenbeek, where terrorists go to ‘finish’ training & beta test & refine the attack! pass through Molenbeek; I have written about this, see below stacks; the ‘who’ is ‘who’ of terror
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 27 |
Documents show that Biden Officials (headed by United States assistant secretary for health RACHEL LEVINE) moved to Remove Age Limits for Trans Surgery…why would they do that?
Why would these people be placing our youth, our children at such risk? Are these people insane? What is the value added of this to a society? Most teens etc. become SUICIDAL after trans surgery, fact
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 27 |
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
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| U.S Army Admits Covid Shot Caused Soldier’s Heart FailureThe United States Army has admitted that an American soldier suffered heart failure as a direct consequence of receiving a mandated Covid mRNA injection.READ MORE |
| CIA Helped Rig 2020 Election for Biden, Congressional Report ConcludesCongressional investigators have just dropped a bombshell report asserting that the CIA colluded with the Democrats to rig the 2020 election for President Joe Biden.READ MORE |
| Report: Obama Suffering ‘Anxiety’ over Trump Beating Biden, Holding ‘Secret Meetings’Barack Obama is reportedly panicking over concerns that Democrat President Joe Biden will lose the November election.READ MORE |
| Kansas Uncovers Evidence Exposing Pfizer’s ‘Clear Effort to Conceal & Mislead’ about Side Effects of Covid ShotsKansas Attorney General Kris Kobach has announced that investigators have uncovered evidence that pharmaceutical giant Pfizer “knew of multiple side effects” related to its Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE |
| Ex-NY Gov Andrew Cuomo Admits Alvin Bragg’s Trump Prosecution Is ‘Political’New York’s Democrat former Governor Andrew Cuomo has admitted that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s “hush money” case against President Donald Trump is “political.”READ MORE |
| Obama Judges Block Biden’s Second Student Debt Pay-Off PlanDemocrat President Joe Biden’s controversial efforts to use taxpayer money to pay off the student debts of college-educated voters have once again been blocked in federal court.READ MORE |
| Trump Files Appeal to Disqualify DA Fani Willis from Georgia CasePresident Donald Trump’s legal team is seeking to appeal a lower court’s decision to allow embattled Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis to head the Democrats’ politically motivated case against him in Georgia.READ MORE |
| Another Packed Boeing Passenger Plane Malfunctions and Plunges Mid-Flight, Hospitalizing 13Another packed Boeing passenger plane has taken a terrifying 25,000-foot plunge after suffering a malfunction mid-flight.READ MORE |
| Hillary Clinton Lays Groundwork for Biden’s Debate Defeat: It’s ‘Impossible’ to Argue with TrumpHillary Clinton has been laying the groundwork ahead of this week’s first presidential debate by complaining that it’s a “waste of time” trying to argue with President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Jonathan Turley: Jack Smith Has a ‘Serious Problem of Restraint’ on Trump CaseLegal scholar Professor Jonathan Turley has blasted Special Counsel Jack Smith’s lack of “restraint” while pursuing politically motivated charges against President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Track Coaches Outraged as Male Athlete Crushes Female Competitors at State ChampionshipA male athlete has provoked outrage after destroying female competitors in the girls’ competition at the state championship.READ MORE |
| Voters Believe Democrats Are Planning to Drop Biden after Trump Wins Debate, Poll ShowsA large number of American people say they are expecting the Democrats to drop President Joe Biden as the candidate for the November election if he doesn’t win this week’s highly-anticipated first presidential debate.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Bill Gates Gives Robots a Smiling Face with Living Human SkinBillionaire Bill Gates has developed a method of using living human skin cells to create a “synthetic smiling face” for robots powered by artificial intelligence (AI).READ THE FULL REPORT |
| DNC Caught Funneling Millions to Law Firms Involved in Unprecedented Lawfare Campaign Against TrumpThe Democratic National Committee (DNC) has funneled millions of dollars to law firms actively involved in an aggressive lawfare campaign against President Donald Trump. The information came to light after a comprehensive review of Federal Election Commission (FEC) records conducted by the Daily Caller. According to FEC filings, since August 2021, the DNC has allocated nearly $2 million to Kaplan …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| House Speaker Mike Johnson: ‘I Have No Personal Animus Against Joe Biden — No One Expects He Will Be on Cocaine’On Tuesday’s episode of CNN’s “The Source,” Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) clarified that remarks about President Joe Biden using cocaine were made in “jest,” emphasizing that they weren’t meant to be taken seriously. “I have no personal animus against Joe Biden. Of course, I respect the office and I’ve just acknowledged what everyone sees. We can’t help …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| The Sopranos Star Drea de Matteo: ‘Hollywood Actors Getting Paid to Support Biden’Hollywood star and The Sopranos actress Drea de Matteo says Hollywood is full of ‘quiet’ Trump supporters and questioned how much actors are getting paid to publicly support President Joe Biden ahead of the November election. She told Fox News’ Jesse Watters on Monday that she believes there are “a lot of quiet Trump supporters” in Hollywood. The actress, famous …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Maricopa County Election Official Stephen Richer Announces He Plans to Vote for Biden in 2024Maricopa County Recorder Stephen Richer, a widely disliked figure among Arizona Republicans, announced on Monday that he plans to vote for Joe Biden in the 2024 election. Richer faced criticism after his 2020 campaign, during which he accused his predecessor, former Maricopa County Recorder Adrian Fontes, of being a “criminal” and claimed that election laws were not being followed. Despite …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BOLIVIA
Military coup in Bolivia ends with the leader arrested
(zerohedge)
Dramatic Scenes Of Military-Led Coup In Progress In Bolivia
WEDNESDAY, JUN 26, 2024 – 04:40 PM
There are emerging reports of a military coup going down in Bolivia on Wednesday, with embattled President Luis Arce denouncing the “irregular mobilization” of some units of the national army.
He has accused the country’s top general, Gen. Juan Jose Zuniga,of plotting a coup, and warned “You need to respect democracy.”
According to Reuters, “Heavily armed soldiers and armored vehicles were seen gathering in the capital’s Plaza Murillo, according to videos shared on social media.”
“Former President Evo Morales, who has publicly split with Arce even though both belong to same socialist movement, announced a national mobilization of his supporters to support democracy in a separate post on X,” the report continues.
BREAKING: Bolivian armed forces have surrounded the government palace in Bolivia’s Plaza Murillo in an apparent coup attempt.
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https://twitter.com/KawsachunNews/status/180604941971791103
There are widespread reports that armored vehicles are destroying the door of the Presidential Palace, and that armed troops are breaking in.
Bolivia state TV is airing the following dramatic footage…
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/dramatic-scenes-military-led-coup-progress-bolivia
Amid road blockages and works stoppages across the capital, each side is urging their forces and supporters to urgently assist:
Presidential Minister María Nela Prada said military and tanks were taking over Plaza Murillo in La Paz, calling it an “attempted coup d’état.” The people are “on alert to defend democracy,” she said to local television station Red Uno.
The general commander of the army, Juan José Zúñiga, present in the same square, confirmed that there was a movement of uniformed officers, and said: “We are upset by the affront, enough is enough.”
Currently protesters supporting Arce are filling up some of the streets leading to the square while chanting pro-Arce slogans and on their way to confront the mutiny.
The following widely circulating and astounding photograph shows President Arce meeting the leader of the attempted military coup face-to-face at the doors of the Presidential Palace:
developing…
end
Bolivian Coup Averted, Top General Arrested After Short-Lived Rebellion
BY TYLER DURDEN
WEDNESDAY, JUN 26, 2024 – 07:50 PM
Update(1950ET): It appears the short-lived coup attempt is over, with reports of the following: The President of Bolivia, Luis Arce has just stated during a Press Conference that the Leader of the Coup d’état in the Capital of La Paz, General Juan José Zúñiga has been arrested by his own Troops after they realized he was conducting a Coup against the Government; with all remaining Troops currently Returning to their Bases. News wires are also confirming:
BOLIVIA’S EX-ARMY GENERAL ZUNIGA ARRESTED AFTER COUP ATTEMPT
Now begins the speculation over whether there was any external state backer or hidden hand in this brief episode.
It also seems that for now at least, Arce’s supporters were able to present enough of a showing to get the military leadership to back off.
The Leader of the apparent Failed Military Coup in Bolivia, General Juan José Zúñiga was seen earlier getting into his Armored Vehicle and Quickly Leaving the Area of the Presidential Residence in Downtown La Paz.
·
220.8K Views
* * *
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0701 UP .0021
USA/ YEN 160.50 DOWN 0.124 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2645 UP .0024
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3690 DOWN .0015 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 15 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 26.67 PTS OR 0.90%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 373.46 PTS OR 2.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.25%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL RED EXCEPT GERMAN DAX
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 373.46 PTS OR 2.06 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 26.67 PTS OR 0.90%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.25%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 325.53 PTS OR 0.82%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2315.75
silver:$28.87
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 105.56 DOWN 15 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.212% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.049% UP 2 AND 5/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.399 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.026 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.449 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0707 UP 0.0028 OR 28 basis points
USA/Japan: 160.70 UP 0.060 OR YEN IS DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.1790 UP 0 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0003 OR 3 BASIS pts to 1.3691
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2688 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3017)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.85 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.049…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.293% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.426 DOWN 2 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.716 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2326.90
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.97
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 45.65 PTS OR 0.56%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 55.31 PTS OR 0.30%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 78.03 PTS OR 1.03 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 79.00 OR 0.72%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 355.09 PTS OR 1.06% PTS
WTI Oil price 81.39 12EST/
Brent Oil: 85.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.50 ROUBLE UP 2 AND 75/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4449 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1760 UP 0 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0703 UP 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2642 UP 0.0021 OR 21 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.1650 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.049%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 160.78 UP 0.149 YEN DOWN 15 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3692 DOWN 0012 //CDN dollar UP 12 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.93
Brent OIL: 86.45
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.293
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.430%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT 4.718
USA dollar index: 105.58 DOWN 13 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.84 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.00 UP 3 AND 24/100 roubles
GOLD 2,327.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.94 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 36.53 PTS OR 0.09%
NASDAQ UP 32.98 PTS OR 0.19 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.31 DOWN 0.24 PTS OR 1.91%
GLD: $214.99 UP 2.41 OR 1.13%
SLV/ $26.31 UP 0.12 OR 0.48%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech (Ex-NVDA) Bid Despite Macro Meltdown
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Macro was ugly – really ugly – today: Personal Consumption ugly (Q1 downgraded on 3rd look), continuing jobless claims ugly (highest since Nov 2021), core capital goods new orders and shipments ugly (not a great signals for Q2 GDP), pending home sales ugly (puke to record lows SAAR), and finally, Kansas City Fed manufacturing ugly (21st month in a row without expansion)…
This smashed the US Macro Surprise Index to its weakest since January 2016 (and we have May’s PCE tomorrow)…
Source: Bloomberg
Micro was not pretty: Micron spooked the AI trade (NVDA lower too)…
…Consumer weakness exhibited by Walgreens (lowest since 1997)
…and Levi Strauss (biggest daily drop ever)…
But Small Caps outperformed strongly on the day, as Nasdaq managed small gains and The Dow and S&P lagged, all just holding green into the close…
Once again the range in the S&P 500 was very low and realized vol over the last 10 days has dropped to multi-year lows (thanks long gamma and 0-DTE)
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks managed gains despite NVDA’s loss…
Source: Bloomberg
Bank stocks were mixed after the stress tests (GS down on ccard losses, JPM up on strong capital, which ironically they came out and said was too generous)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were bid across the curve with the belly modestly outperforming (down 3-4bps). Today’s rally pushed 2Y yields lower on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The macro was ugly enough to send rate-cut expectations (dovishly) higher on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was flat to slightly lower after yesterday’s yen-driven melt-up…
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar weakness prompted a rally in gold, finding support at $2300…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed to bounce back above $62,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rebounded once again, with WTI breaking out above $82, its highest since April…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, of course, today was to some extent about positioning for tonight’s debate. Goldman Sachs shows us this chart shows how institutional investors view November’s outcome…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Simply put, Unified government is a major risk for bonds – Equities most sensitive to a Trump win.
MORNING TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Not good: core durable goods order decline in May as well as we have a growth scare as shipments plunge
(zerohedge)
Core Durable Goods Orders Decline In May; Growth Scare Grows As Shipments Plunge
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 08:49 AM
New Orders for Durable Goods in the US rose by just 0.1% MoM in preliminary May data (better than the -0.5% exp, but that was thanks to a major downward revision in April from +0.6% to +0.2%).
Source: Bloomberg
The last four months have seen gains ebb rapidly and now durable goods orders are down 1.2% on a YoY basis.
Of course this is constantly flattered before its revised later – 4 of the last 5 months have been revised lower (and 8 of the last 12)…
Source: Bloomberg
Core Capital Goods Orders (non-defense, ex-aircraft) plunged 0.6% MoM (well below the +0.1% exp), matching the biggest drop this year…
Source: Bloomberg
…with both defense and non-defense spending slowing…
Source: Bloomberg
Furthermore, Capital Goods shipments non-defense, ex-aircraft plunged 0.5% MoM – a big drop for a key signal of business spending and GDP…
Source: Bloomberg
How many times can a data series be downwardly revised before conspiracies about manipulated data flip from theory to actual ‘standard operating procedure’?
and
another indicator that the economy is in trouble
(zerohedge)
Continuing Jobless Claims Rise To Highest Since Nov 2021
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 08:38 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time dipped from a revised 239k to 233k last week…
Source: Bloomberg
However, continuing claims for jobless benefits continues to rise – hitting its highest since November 2021 at 1.839mm Americans – and the overall trend in initial claims is clearly heading higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this data bad enough to warrant immediate rate-cuts?
Source: Bloomberg
We suspect there’s a long way to go before we reach reality.
end
As promised, the economy is faltering
(zerohedge)
Final Q1 GDP Print Confirms Sharp Consumer Slowdown
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 09:41 AM
While absolutely nobody cared about today’s final Q1 GDP print – which in 3 days will cover a quarter that is more than three months old – there were two notable things about the print: first, the headline number came in fractionally higher than last quarter’s downward revised print, printing at an annualized 1.4% increase, up from 1.3%. That was also right on top of estimates. Despite the slight upward revision to the final number, the 1.4% print was still the lowest since June 22 when the mini technical recession ended.
However, while the overall GDP print came in higher, the composition was decidedly uglier, with Personal Consumption unexpectedly sliding from a 2.0% annualized number to just 1.5% (and a big miss to the 2.0% expected).
This confirms what recent earnings reports from MCD, MMM, KO, POOL, and most recently, Walgreens, have made very clear (and why Goldman recently said to short the middle-income consumer): the US consumer, that pillar supporting 70% of GDP growth, is cracking.
Taking a closer look at the numbers, we find that the sharply reduced increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well. In other words, soaring health insurance costs are “boosting” GDP once more. Meanwhile, within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
- The increase in housing investment was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction.
- The decrease in inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing.
In terms of contribution to the bottom line GDP, here are the key numbers:
- Personal consumption was responsible for 0.98% of the bottom line 1.41% GDP growth, a big drop from the 1.34% in the second estimate and almost half the 1.68% consumption in the first estimate!
- Fixed investment added 1.19% to the bottom line, up from 1.02% in the previous estimate.
- The change in private inventories was almost unchanged from the previous estimate, at -0.42%, up fractionally from -0.45%.
- Net trade (exports less imports) subtracted only 0.65%, a revision from the -0.89% in the previous estimate. With the dollar soaring, expect this number to plunge for the Q2 print.
- Finally, government consumption managed a modest increase, rising to 0.31%, up from 0.23%.
One final point: while certainly not relevant today, one day ahead of the latest core PCE print, the BEA reported that in Q1, prices rose slightly more than expected, with the GDP price index rising 3.1%, up from 3.0% and the core PCE up 3.7% vs 3.6% previously. Some more details from the report:
- Gross domestic purchases prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased 3.1 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 3.3 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.
- Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices increased 3.4 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 3.7 percent after increasing 2.0 percent.
Bottom line: the stagflationary pressures are rising, with growth about to dip into contraction especially as the consumer is now tapped out, while prices remains very sticky, and while tomorrow’s core PCE may show a modest drop due to a handful of technicalities we will discuss shortly, everyone knows that absent a huge recession (or depression) prices will just keep on ticking higher.
end
Pending home sales unexpectedly plunges in May to a new record low
(zerohedge)
US Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Plunged In May To A New Record Low
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 10:06 AM
After crashing in April, analysts expected a small rebound in pending home sales in May, but they didn’t.
Instead, sales tumbled 2.1% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
That dragged the YoY change down 6.6% to a new record low…
Source: Bloomberg
“The market is at an interesting point with rising inventory and lower demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
“Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend.”
Potential homebuyers are turned off by high selling prices, which hit a record $419,300 in May, although the market is gradually seeing a pickup in listings.
On a call with reporters last week, Yun noted optimistically that the supply of existing homes was up more than 18% from a year ago.
“Let’s wait to see if this leads to more home sales,” he said.
More problematically, the pending-sales figures tend to be a leading indicator of sales of previously owned homes, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Michael Snyder…..
11 Signs That The US Economy Is In Far Worse Shape Than Most People Think
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Unless you are living under a bridge or you are eagerly drinking the kool-aid that the mainstream media is dishing out, you probably understand that the economy has been struggling. Survey after survey has found that the American people are deeply dissatisfied with how the economy has been performing, and as a result it has become the number one issue this election season. But even though a large portion of the population is not happy about how things have been going, the truth is that the situation is far more dire than most people realize.
Just this week we have received quite a bit of very troubling news, and the outlook for the months ahead is very bleak.
The following are 11 signs that the U.S. economy is in far worse shape than most people think…
#1 Just like in 2008, delinquencies are on the rise. In fact, credit card delinquencies have now reached the highest level that we have seen in more than 10 years…
Meanwhile, more consumers aren’t making loan payments on time. Credit card delinquencies have hit their highest level in over a decade, and auto delinquencies are also spiking. This could prove to be yet another tripwire for the stock market, as consumer spending accounts for about 70% of U.S. economic activity.
#2 The commercial real estate crisis just continues to escalate. An article that originally appeared in the New York Times claims that major Wall Street banks have “begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses”…
Some Wall Street banks, worried that landlords of vacant and struggling office buildings won’t be able to pay off their mortgages, have begun offloading their portfolios of commercial real estate loans hoping to cut their losses.
It’s an early but telling sign of the broader distress brewing in the commercial real estate market, which is hurting from the twin punches of high interest rates, which make it harder to refinance loans, and low occupancy rates for office buildings — an outcome of the pandemic.
#3 When banks get into trouble, they start shutting down branches. So far this year, U.S. banks have closed more than 400 branches all over the country…
US banks closed 51 branches across the country in the first three weeks of June.
The figures suggest banks are committed to increasingly offering their services online and axing costly bricks-and-mortar locations.
More than 400 bank branches have closed so far in 2024.
#4 Big companies are laying off workers from coast to coast. For example, approximately 500 Texas truckers just lost their jobs when a large logistics company abruptly shut their doors for good…
A truck and logistics company has abruptly shut – affecting 2,000 workers – just three years after being bought by private equity.
Out of the blue, staff at US Logistics Solutions were given news on Thursday that they were out of a job and would also not get their paychecks on Friday.
Around 500 were truck drivers, and the rest a mixture of warehouse, dock and office workers at the Humble, Texas- based company.
#5 The Dallas Fed Services Index has now been in negative territory for 25 months in a row…
This is the 25th straight month of contraction (sub-zero) for the Dallas Fed Services index and judging by the respondents’ comments, there is a clear place to point the finger of blame
#6 The “restaurant apocalypse” just continues to intensify. This week, we learned that Hooters has suddenly decided to permanently shut down close to 40 “underperforming” locations…
The Atlanta-based sports bar chain, Hooters, abruptly shuttered dozens of “underperforming” restaurants across the U.S., as it joins a growing list of eateries facing the harsh realities of inflation and changing consumer habits, according to reports.
Nation’s Restaurant News (NRN) reported that word began to spread on Sunday evening that Hooters locations in places like Bryan, Texas; Lakeland, Florida; and Louisville, Kentucky were closing abruptly, with nearly 40 restaurants in the U.S. shutting their doors.
#7 Retail chains continue to go belly up at a staggering rate. Today, it was being reported that two large retailers in the Northeast have made a decision to file for bankruptcy…
Two sister chains that sell sporting goods have filed for bankruptcy as retailers continue to struggle.
Bob’s Stores, which sells athletic and casual clothing, and outdoor gear retailer Eastern Mountain Sports together have 50 stores across the northeast of America.
#8 We just learned that consumer confidence in the U.S. dropped lower this month…
US consumer confidence teetered slightly in June as Americans grew a little warier about the future, new data released Tuesday showed.
The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence index dipped to 100.4 in June from a downwardly revised level of 101.3 in May.
#9 The initial consumer confidence reading has been revised down in 7 of the last 8 months.
#10 Housing in the U.S. is now more unaffordable than it has ever been before…
The housing cost burden has hit a record, according to a new report from Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies.
Home prices are now 47% higher than they were in early 2020, with the median sale price now five times the median household income, according to the study.
#11 As I discussed yesterday, the homeless population in the city of Chicago tripled from January 2023 to January 2024…
The number of Chicagoans living in city shelters or on city streets tripled between January 2023 and January 2024, according to the annual survey used by federal officials to track homelessness, city officials announced Friday.
Those at the bottom of the economic food chain are being hit the hardest by the harsh economic conditions that we have been experiencing.
Homelessness, poverty, hunger and theft are all on the rise, and many of those that serve struggling communities say that they are being absolutely overwhelmed because they simply do not have sufficient resources to meet all of the needs.
Sadly, I am entirely convinced that this is just the beginning. I believe that conditions will eventually become much harsher as the economy continues to deteriorate during the months ahead.
But Joe Biden and his minions insist that everything is just great.
In fact, they would like you to believe that the economy is “booming” right now.
You can believe that if you want, but the cold, hard numbers that we keep getting directly contradict the endless stream of propaganda that we are constantly being fed.
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.
end
The USA continues to implode..
(zerohedge)
Walgreens Shares Crash 20% On Full-Year Guidance Cut, Warns “Worse-Than-Expected” Consumer Environment
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 09:50 AM
Mounting evidence of a consumer slowdown is becoming undeniable for the Biden team, which has nothing but cheerleaded failed economic policies dubbed ‘Bidenomics’ ahead of the presidential elections this November. We have detailed the consumer downturn extensively, citing notes from Goldman, whose top analysts told clients earlier this week to begin shorting “our Middle-Income Consumer basket (GSXUMIDC).”
It was only Wednesday that Cheerios cereal maker General Mills reported a dismal sales outlook as consumers pulled back on spending in the era of elevated supermarket prices. Now, drugstore chain Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc. has slashed its full-year earnings thanks to a “worse-than-expected” consumer environment.
Walgreens revised its forecast range for full-year adjusted earnings to $2.80 to $2.95 per share from $3.20 to $3.35.
- Sees adjusted EPS $2.80 to $2.95, saw $3.20 to $3.35, estimate $3.20 (Bloomberg Consensus)
Adjusted earnings for the third quarter ending May 31 were 63 cents a share, worse than the 68 cents that Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg estimated. Sales beat on the quarter, but investors focused on the dismal full-year guidance.
Here’s a snapshot of the third quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Adjusted EPS 63c, estimate 68c
- Sales $36.4 billion, estimate $35.81 billion
- International sales $5.73 billion, +2.8% y/y, estimate $5.72 billion
- US Retail Pharmacy Sales $28.50 billion, +2.3% y/y, estimate $28.04 billion
- US Healthcare Sales $2.13 billion, +7.6% y/y, estimate $2.13 billion
On slide 15 of the investor deck released with earnings, Walgreens blamed the worsening outlook for the year on “Worse-than-expected consumer environment driving higher promotional activity, negatively impacting retail margin.”
“We continue to face a difficult operating environment, including persistent pressures on the US consumer and the impact of recent marketplace dynamics which have eroded pharmacy margins,” Chief Executive Officer Tim Wentworth said in a statement in response to the earnings report.
Wentworth said, “Our results and outlook reflect these headwinds, despite solid performance in both our International and US Healthcare segments,” adding, “Informed by our strategic review, we are focused on improving our core business: retail pharmacy, which is central to the future of healthcare. We are addressing critical issues with urgency and working to unlock opportunities for growth.”
In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, CEO Wentworth said the drugstore chain plans major store closures nationwide. The chain has approximately 8,600 stores in the US, and the executive said the company has yet to provide a final number of locations to close.
In markets, if premarket losses of -21% hold, this will be the worst single day decline for Walgreens in 30 plus years of data via Bloomberg.
Shares are set to crash to levels not seen since the mid-1990s.
Here’s how Wall Street analysts are responding (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Evercore ISI, Elizabeth Anderson (in line, PT $17)
- Calls the results disappointing
- Says lowered guidance will raise investor questions about the run rate number for FY25
Leerink Partners, Michael Cherny (market perform)
- Says the outlook cut on the back of this quarter’s performance is not “overly shocking to us as the company now begins the next leg of its turnaround”
- Sees a “murky multi-year pathway” with persistent near-term challenges that will make creating a constructive case on the stock challenging
Bloomberg Intelligence, Jonathan Palmer
- Says Walgreens’ second reduction to fiscal 2024 guidance “underscores the challenges in its turnaround”
- “Modest Ebitda in US Healthcare is a minor positive, though the wait is on for a more meaningful strategic transaction”
The big theme here is that low-income and middle-class Americans are suffering. Goldman recently illustrated this with charts, which we highlighted in a note titled “Goldman Exposes Bidenomics Real-World Disconnect: Low-Income Americans Are Struggling With High Prices.”
Besides Goldman, corporate America as a whole is beginning to freak out about the pullback in spending.
We suspect corporate America’s warnings about the consumer slowdown will grow louder as the fall elections approach.
Let’s not forget that consumerism is nearly 68% of GDP. And, if you’re wondering how a recession could form, all it takes is one incident in the Middle East to spike Brent crude over $100/bbl to create a shock (remember 2007/08).
END
Not a good sign when both imports and exports fall in numbers Highest deficit in one year. Also a strong minus to GDP q 2
Trade deficit in goods widens in May to highest level in a year
June 27, 2024 at 8:38 a.m.
ET
MarketWatch
Trade gap up 2.7% to $100.6 billion
The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened 2.7% to $100.6 billion in May, according to the Commerce Department’s advanced estimate released Thursday. This is the largest deficit since last May.Economists polled by Econoday were looking for the deficit to narrow to a $95.6 billion deficit from last month’s $98 billion deficit.The report also showed a 0.6% gain in wholesale inventories in May. And advanced retail inventories were up 0.7%. Excluding autos, retail inventories were up 2%.Key details: Both exports and imports fell in May, with exports falling at a faster rate.Big picture: The trade deficit is expected to be a drag on second-quarter GDP growth. The strong dollar supports goods imports. Economists at Nationwide expect consumer spending to cool in the second half of the year, which will lead imports to lose momentum
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
“How Do They Get People This Stupid?”: Tucker Carlson Wrecks Ambush Journalist Calling Him Racist
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 02:20 PM
Tucker Carlson absolutely dismantled an Australian journalist while taking questions at the sold-out Australian Freedom Conference in Canberra, as part of his Australian tour.
After discussing a wide range of topics – including the release of Julian Assange, woke corporations, and corrupt pharmaceutical companies (watch here), Carlson took questions. from the audience – two of whom were antagonistic journalists.
Kat Wong of the Australian Associated Press launched into an attack of Carlson, saying “So, you talked a little bit about immigration, and, in the past, you’ve talked about how white Australians, Americans, Europeans, are being replaced by non-white immigrants in what is often referred to as the Great Replacement Theory,”
To which Carlson interrupted, saying “Have I said that whites are being replaced? I don’t think I said that.“
Wong then went into full ‘ACKCHYUALLY‘ mode, firing back that “It’s been mentioned on your show 4,000 times” (it hasn’t).
“Really? When did I say that?” Carlson replied. “I said, ‘Whites are being replaced’?”
Wong doubled down, insisting that Carlson had made the ‘replacement’ theory about race – to which Carlson completely dismantled her, The Blaze reports.
“I said, ‘Native-born Americans are being replaced, including blacks,'” Carlson shot back. “Native-born Americans … like black Americans have been — African-Americans have been in the United States for, in many cases, their families, over 400 years. And their concerns are every bit as real and valid and alive to me as the concerns of white people whose families have been there 400 years. So, I’ve never said that whites are being replaced.“
“My concern is that the people who are born in the country are the main responsibility of its leaders. And as noted earlier, when those leaders shift their concern from the people whose responsibility it is to take care of, to people around the world — to put their priorities above that of their own citizens, that’s immoral. And they are being replaced in my country, people who were born in the United States and the birth rate tells the whole story. They are not at replacement rate.
So the U.S. population is growing because we’re importing people from other countries. My view is that happy people have children. And a functioning economy allows them to do that. We don’t have that. So, you need to fix the economy and fix the culture, and make it so that people who want to have kids can. You don’t just go for the quick sugar fix of importing new people. And if you think that’s racist, that’s your problem.”
After that mic drop, Wong tried to claim she wasn’t calling Carlson a racist… only to pivot to blaming him for a mass shooting.
“This is the same theory or, as you say, idea, that’s inspired the New York, Buffalo, shooting,” said Wong.
“Come on,” Carlson replied. “How do they get people this stupid in the media? I guess it doesn’t pay well. … I don’t mean to call you stupid — maybe you’re just pretending to be.“
Carlson underscored there was nothing bigoted about his views, adding that they centered on a “deep concern for Americans, actually. Americans aren’t having kids because they can’t afford to and nobody in charge cares. And so that’s my position. That doesn’t ‘inspire’ mass shootings.”
The fertility rate in the U.S. last year was 1.784. By way of contrast, in 1960, the U.S. fertility rate was 3.7. For a population to maintain stability and replenish itself without need for an influx of foreign nationals, a fertility rate of 2.1 is needed. -The Blaze
Wong, a terrible driver, then steered the conversation into a ravine over gun control.
Watch:
WOW: Liberal journalist calls Tucker racist and accuses him of inspiring mass shootings.
5:53
·
153.9K Views
Needless to say: Tucker: 1, Establishment Hacks: 0
The next liberal ambush came from Paul Sakkal of the Sydney Morning Herald, who suggested that Carlson should feel “shame” and “regret” for interviewing Russian President Vladimir Putin – noting that conservatives have called Putin “reprehensible.”
Carlson suggested that his criticism of the Ukraine war should not be conflated with support for the Russian leader – and indicated that he does not in fact support him, but that if he did, it shouldn’t matter because free citizens in free countries should be able to support whomever they choose.
Liberal journalist asks Tucker if he feels shame or regret after interviewing Putin. Watch Tucker’s fiery response: “This alignment between media organizations and the government I find disgusting.”
·
99.5K Views
Tucker: 2, Establishment Hacks: 0
More:https://x.com/TCNetwork/status/1806102641677848814
Meet the Australian media.
·
4.7M Views
END
SWAMP NEWS
How the Russian hoax started (with Clapper) and continued on into the 2020 election campaing
(Sperry)
James Clapper, Mr. October Surprise: How Obama’s Intel Czar Rigged 2016 And 2020 Debates Against Trump
WEDNESDAY, JUN 26, 2024 – 10:20 PM
Authored by Paul Sperry via RealClearInvestigations.com,
Just before Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton faced off in their second presidential debate, then-National Intelligence Director James Clapper met in the White House with a small group of advisers to President Obama to hatch a plan to put out a first-of-its-kind intelligence report warning the voting public that “the Russian government” was interfering in the election by allegedly breaching the Clinton campaign’s email system.
On Oct. 7, 2016 – just two days before the presidential debate between Trump and Clinton – Clapper issued the unprecedented intelligence advisory with Obama’s personal blessing. It seemed to lend credence to what the Clinton camp was telling the media — that Trump was working with Russian President Vladimir Putin through a secret back channel to steal the election. Sure enough, the Democratic nominee pounced on it to smear Trump at the debate.
And that wouldn’t be the only historically consequential maneuver for Clapper, whose role in skewing presidential campaigns might deserve a special place in the annals of nefarious election meddling – by, in this case, a domestic, not foreign, intelligence service.
In 2020, he was the lead signatory on the “intelligence” statement that discredited the New York Post’s October bombshell exposing emails from Hunter Biden’s laptop, which documented how Hunter’s corrupt Burisma paymasters had met with Joe Biden when he was vice president. It was released Oct. 19, just three days before Trump and Biden debated each other in Nashville. Fifty other U.S. “Intelligence Community” officials and experts signed the seven-page document, which claimed “the arrival on the U.S. political scene of emails purportedly belonging to Vice President Biden’s son Hunter, much of it related to his time serving on the board of the Ukrainian gas company Burisma, has all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation.”
In hindsight, Clapper’s well-timed pseudo-intelligence in 2016 and 2020 helped Clinton and Biden make the case against Trump as a potentially Kremlin-compromised figure, charges that crippled his presidency and later arguably denied him reelection.
The phony laptop letter actually helped Biden seal his narrow victory since many of his voters in the close election told pollsters they would have had second thoughts about backing him had they known of the damning materials contradicting his denials he knew anything about his son’s shady foreign dealings.
A post-election survey by The Polling Company, for one, found that thanks to the discrediting and suppression of the laptop story, 45% of Biden voters in swing states said they were “unaware of the financial scandal enveloping Biden and his son” and that full awareness of the Hunter Biden laptop scandal would have led more than 9% of these Biden voters to abandon their vote for him – thereby flipping all six of the swing states he won over to Trump and giving Trump the victory.
In effect, Joe Biden was elected president because millions of voters were steered away by Clapper and his intelligence colleagues from learning about the damning contents on Hunter Biden’s laptop.
In the Beginning, Disinformation
In 2016, Clapper appeared to use his authority as Obama’s chief of intelligence to try to trip up Trump on behalf of Clinton.
But not everyone in the administration was on board with releasing his official statement about supposed Kremlin meddling.
Then-FBI Director James Comey had also met in the Situation Room in early October to discuss the plan. But Comey balked at accusing “Russia’s senior-most officials” of authorizing the “alleged hack” of the Clinton campaign and trying “to interfere in the U.S. election process,” as the two-page document claimed. Conspicuously, the FBI did not sign on to the intelligence.
Still, Clapper implied in his statement that this was the finding of the entire “U.S. Intelligence Community” and that it was “confident the Russian Government directed the recent compromises of emails.” Aside from Clapper’s Office of the Director of National Intelligence, the only other agency that attached its name to the assessment was the Department of Homeland Security. Also remarkable was the paucity of underlying evidence. The joint ODNI-DHS statement based its conclusion primarily on a report by a cybersecurity contractor hired by the Clinton campaign’s law firm, who later walked back his finding in a sworn congressional deposition, allowing: “We did not have concrete evidence [Russian agents stole campaign emails].”
At best, Clapper’s finding was shoddy tradecraft. At worst, it was manufactured, or simply “dreamed up,” as one former FBI counterintelligence official described it to RealClearInvestigations.
Either way, it came at a highly opportune time for Clinton. The Democratic nominee seized on the intelligence report during her debate with Trump in St. Louis on Oct. 9 to tarnish her Republican opponent as some kind of Russian agent.
“You know, let’s talk about what’s really going on here, because our intelligence community just came out and said in the last few days that the Kremlin – meaning Putin and the Russian government – are directing the attacks, the hacking on American accounts to influence our election,” Clinton asserted, citing Clapper’s warning. “We have never in the history of our country been in a situation where an adversary, a foreign power, is working so hard to influence the outcome of the election.”
“And believe me, they’re not doing it to get me elected,” she continued. “They’re doing it to try to influence the election for Donald Trump.”
“Now, maybe because he has praised Putin, maybe because he says he agrees with a lot of what Putin wants to do, maybe because he wants to do business in Moscow, I don’t know the reasons. But we deserve answers,” Clinton went on, clearly reciting a prepared talking point. “And we should demand that Donald release all of his tax returns so that people can see what are the entanglements and the financial relationships that he has with the Russians and other foreign powers.”
Some former U.S. intelligence officials say the Oct. 7 intelligence assessment appears to have been cooked up for the benefit of Clinton.
“There was no evidence to support it,” said retired U.S. Army Col. Derek Harvey, who investigated the origins of the assessment for the House Intelligence Committee. “It was a political diversion to help Clinton.”
He pointed out that the specious sourcing behind the intelligence violated Clapper’s own 2015 Intelligence Community directive outlining analytical standards for such assessments. What’s more, his directive prohibited any political bias in intelligence reporting, warning that assessments must be “independent of political consideration.”
“Analytic assessments must not be distorted by, nor shaped for, advocacy of a particular audience, agenda or policy viewpoint,” according to the six-page document, which was signed by Clapper himself.
Former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker said Clapper’s Oct. 7 assessment is another example of the many covert ops the Intelligence Community ran against Trump to try to keep him from power or to minimize his effectiveness while in office. By pre-cooking the conclusion about the Russian government targeting Clinton, he said, Clapper abused the U.S. government’s awesome intelligence powers to intervene in a U.S. election.
“In hindsight, it is now clear that the leaders of our intelligence agencies directed their immense powers towards all things Trump,” he said in an RCI interview.
Swecker added that Clapper, now 83, was easily manipulated by Obama and then-CIA Director John Brennan, even though Clapper oversaw the CIA. “James Clapper was the Barney Fife of the Intelligence Community,” he said.
The CIA and other American intelligence agencies are prohibited from getting involved in domestic affairs, Swecker noted, and certainly not American elections.
Attempts to seek comment from Clapper, now retired, were unsuccessful. But in his 2018 memoir, “Facts and Fears,” Clapper revealed that he and then-DHS Secretary Jeh Johnson, another Obama appointee, “agonized over the precise wording” in the Oct. 7 intelligence release, ostensibly because the linkages to the Kremlin were gauzy at best.
“We didn’t see any hard evidence of political collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russian government,” Clapper admitted on page 349, “but as I said at the time, my dashboard warning lights were all lit.”
He also suggested he was looking out for Clinton – whom his boss, President Obama, had publicly endorsed and was actively campaigning for at the time.
“Both the Russians and the Trump campaign were, in parallel, pushing conspiracy theories against Secretary Clinton,” Clapper complained, namely that “she was corrupt.”
Added the former intel chief: “Jeh and I felt strongly that we should inform the electorate,” and “President Obama assented.” In doing so, Clapper confessed they “pushed the boundaries” of what they could say about the purported “Russian activities.” As much as they juiced the intel, though, they agreed to stop short of blaming Putin directly.
While Clapper, in his book, mentioned the presidential debate that took place two days later, he did so only in passing and failed to note the key fact that Clinton cited his ginned-up intelligence during the televised event, almost on cue.
The Clinton campaign’s foreign policy adviser later gloated about the Clapper statement, showing how important it was to the campaign.
“The fact is that the entire Intelligence Community stood behind a statement in October that the Russian campaign had hacked the DNC and released their emails,” Jake Sullivan testified in a closed-door December 2017 interview with the House Intelligence Committee. “We feared that we were under attack, not just by the Russians, but by a coordinated [sic] with the Trump campaign as well.”
Sullivan was mistaken, of course. The entire Intelligence Community did not stand behind the statement, which was backed by no real evidence. At the time, according to internal documents, the FBI called the notion that the Russian government was behind the alleged hack “speculation.”
And nothing the Russians may have done was coordinated with the Trump campaign, as multiple investigations have concluded.
The ‘Laptop Op’
Having been nearly charged with perjury in 2013 for lying to Congress about intelligence gathering before apologizing, Clapper appeared to politicize intelligence ahead of the 2020 presidential debate as well.
In an Oct. 19, 2020, formal statement, Obama’s and Biden’s old intelligence czar falsely implied damning emails found on Hunter Biden’s abandoned laptop were Russian disinformation. The “intelligence” came just in time for Biden, who would be squaring off with Trump in three days, just like it did for Clinton in October 2016.
“Clapper didn’t know the Russians were involved. He was just spitballing. His pre-debate guesswork was similar to his pre-debate so-called intelligence on Russia in 2016,” said the former senior FBI counterintelligence official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
Although the statement declared the Hunter Biden laptop “had all the classic earmarks of a Russian information operation,” it provided no actual evidence of Russian involvement. Clapper and his colleagues asserted that they strongly suspected “the Russian government played a significant role in the case.” Later in the statement, they went further to state “our view” shared by the Intelligence Community — not merely a suspicion anymore — “that the Russians are involved in the Hunter Biden email issue.”
“There is incentive for Moscow to pull out the stops to do anything possible to help Trump win and-or to weaken Biden should he win,” they speculated. “A ‘laptop op’ fits the bill, as the publication of the emails are clearly designed to discredit Biden.”
But Clapper was dead wrong. There was no Russian “op.” And the laptop and its contents — including the damning emails published by the Post — were 100% real and authentic, as Special Counsel David Weiss confirmed during the recent trial of Hunter Biden on three felony gun charges, for which he was convicted earlier this month. The Russian government had nothing to do with any of it.
In retrospect, many political analysts agree Clapper’s intel statement was designed not to inform the electorate but to mislead it. But more significantly, the timing of its release suggests it was meant to help Biden in the next presidential debate, which was scheduled just three days later in Nashville.
During that final presidential debate, held on Oct. 22, 2020, Biden dismissed concerns about his son’s laptop emails and family foreign influence-peddling as part of a “Russian plant” after Trump lit into him about the laptop story. “Joe, they’re calling you a corrupt politician,” Trump said. “Take a look at the laptop from Hell.” Leaning on Clapper’s intel statement, Biden flatly denied knowing anything about Hunter’s foreign business dealings.
“Look, there are 50 former national intelligence folks who said that what he’s accusing me of is a Russian plant,” Biden shot back. “They have said this is, has all the characteristics — four, five former heads of the CIA, both parties, say what he’s saying is a bunch of garbage. Nobody believes it except him and his good friend Rudy Giuliani.”
The intel provided a much-needed lifeline for the former vice president.
It were as if Clapper had teed up the perfect talking point for Biden.
As it turns out, Biden campaign officials had worked with Clapper’s team prior to the release of the intel statement accusing Putin of planting the laptop story.
In a House deposition, former deputy CIA Director Mike Morell, a Clapper confidant and one of the 51 signatories of the letter, testified that around Oct. 17, top Biden campaign aide Antony Blinken, now Biden’s Secretary of State, reached out to him to discuss the Hunter Biden laptop story.
Morell revealed that one of the goals in releasing the letter two days later “was to help then-Vice President Biden in the debate,” according to an April 20, 2023, letter House investigators sent to Blinken. The day after speaking with the Biden campaign, Morell blasted out an email to former intelligence officials to recruit them to sign the Oct. 19 intel letter. “We want to give the VP a talking point to use in response” to Trump in the event he attacks Biden over the laptop revelations during the upcoming debate, Morell wrote his colleagues. After the Oct. 22 debate, Morell testified that Biden campaign chairman Steve Ricchetti called him to thank him “for putting the statement out.” Morell said former CIA chief of staff Jeremy Bash was also involved in the coordination effort. Bash happens to be the ex-husband of Dana Bash, who will be one of the CNN moderators questioning Trump and Biden at Thursday night’s debate in Atlanta.
In effect, the Intelligence Community conspired with the Biden campaign to deceive the electorate by creating a false talking point for Biden in the presidential debate, which some government watchdogs say constituted an unreported campaign contribution and a potential violation of federal campaign finance laws.
On the same day that Clapper released the statement, then-Politico reporter Natasha Bertrand hyped it in a story with the conclusive headline: “Hunter Biden story is Russian disinfo, dozens of former intel officials say.” During the earlier frenzied coverage of Russiagate, Bertrand, who now works for CNN, acted as a go-to reporter for leaks from intelligence officials about Trump. She quoted one signatory to the letter as being confident that “once again the Russians are interfering” in U.S. elections. About 15 minutes after Politico published its story, Jen Psaki tweeted a link to the Politico article. Psaki was named Biden’s press secretary the next month. The Biden campaign repeatedly cited Clapper’s statement to dismiss the allegations against Hunter and Joe Biden. Clapper played his part by jumping on CNN to claim the laptop was “textbook Soviet tradecraft.”
It’s clear Clapper was rooting for Biden to win. Three days before Clapper released his all-too-convenient intelligence letter, he had donated $1,000 to Biden’s campaign, according to Federal Election Commission records. He had given another $250 to Biden For President the previous October. In the current election cycle, records show Clapper has contributed at least $300 so far to Biden.
RealClearInvestigations reached out to Clapper for comment but did not hear back. However, in a previous statement, he was unapologetic. “I stand by the statement made at the time,” he told the New York Post. “I think sounding such a cautionary note at the time was appropriate.”
Clapper and Tapper
Clapper’s history of intrigue against Trump includes leaking damaging classified information about him to the media.
CNN anchor Jake Tapper thought he had the scoop of his career when, on Jan. 10, 2017, he reported that President-elect Trump had been briefed by the FBI about “classified documents” containing information from a “credible” intelligence source that the Russians had “compromising” dirt on him. Citing unnamed “U.S. officials,” the report, co-bylined with Carl Bernstein of Watergate fame, also falsely claimed that the Trump campaign and the Russian government had “exchange[d] information” throughout the election and that these allegations had been verified. Tapper failed to note that the supposedly “classified” information came from political opposition research funded by the Hillary Clinton campaign, otherwise known as the Steele dossier, compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele.
As flawed as the story was, it triggered a feeding frenzy in the national media, which up to that point backed off from covering the wild and unsubstantiated allegations contained in the Steele dossier. But after they learned from Tapper – by way of Clapper – that the U.S. Intelligence Community itself had taken a keen interest in the dossier and appeared to be taking it seriously, they reported the allegations against Trump nonstop for several years as if the dossier reports were the Pentagon Papers.
When congressional investigators first asked Clapper about the CNN leak in a July 2017 deposition, Clapper “flatly denied ‘discuss[ing] the dossier [compiled by Steele] or any other intelligence related to Russia hacking of the 2016 election with journalists,’” according to a report issued by the House Intelligence Committee. But Clapper changed his story upon further questioning. “Clapper subsequently acknowledged discussing the ‘dossier with CNN journalist Jake Tapper.’” The report added that Clapper secretly spoke with Tapper in early January 2017 and that on Jan. 10, CNN published Tapper’s story about the dossier allegations, for which he won the Merriman Smith Award for broadcast journalism in 2018.
The next day, Clapper issued a statement describing a call with Trump in which Clapper “expressed my profound dismay at the leaks that have been appearing in the press” and stressed that “I do not believe the leaks came from within the IC,” or Intelligence Community.
Clapper, who was later hired by CNN as an official “national security analyst,” had blatantly lied not only to the incoming president but also to the public. Again. And in effect, he had used Tapper, who’s not only failed to correct the record at CNN, but finds himself in the position to grill Trump on Thursday night as co-moderator with Bash of the first 2024 presidential debate in Atlanta.
END
CHICAGO
If You’re Shot, Robbed, Or Assaulted In Chicago, There’s A 50/50 Chance There’ll Be No Police To Respond To Your 911 Call
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 11:05 AM
By Ted Dabrowski, John Klingner and Nick Binotti of Wirepoints
In Chicago in 2023, more than 1,800 calls were made to 911 of a person being shot. Only about 800 – fewer than half – were responded to immediately by police officers. The other 1,000 callers were victims of 911 backlogs, where no police were available at the time of the call. Those victims had to wait half an hour, an hour, or even several hours for the 911 call backlog to end and for police to finally arrive.
It was the same for the 32,000 911 calls of an assault in progress, where police were only immediately available for 50% of those calls. And it was the same for 54% of the city’s 911 calls of 35,000 batteries in progress.
In all, there were 783,000 high-priority 911 calls in 2023. For 437,000 of those calls, or 56%, long periods of backlogs meant there were no police immediately available. Wirepoints obtained the 911 call and response data directly from the Chicago Police Department via FOIA.
The fact that it’s essentially a 50/50 chance as to whether officers show up promptly for a violent crime should be horrifying to the residents of Chicago. In part, sources tell us it’s an operational and logistics problem. It’s also a staffing problem – the number of beat cops in the city are down nearly 20% compared to 2019. Police are also forced to increasingly focus on consent decree compliance and bureaucratic paperwork, insiders tell us, which keeps officers off the street. But most of all it’s a problem of city leadership that’s made Chicago’s policing and criminal justice system dysfunctional. With violent crimes at its highest point since 2019, a lack of police response is but one of the many problems keeping Chicagoans unsafe.
This year, the bad trend continues. So far in 2024, 127,000 of the 256,000 high-priority 911 calls made in Chicago had no police available to immediately respond. That’s a “no police available” rate of 50%.
No one available
The ability of police officers’ to respond to urgent “Priority Level 1” and “Priority Level 2” 911 calls has gotten worse since 2019.
High-priority calls, which make up 60% of all 911 calls made, aren’t for routine dispatches like noise complaints or theft reports. A Priority Level 1 call includes incidents that require “immediate dispatch for life-threatening emergencies.” And Priority Level 2 calls require “rapid dispatch for situations where timely public safety action has the potential to affect the outcome of an incident.”
Back in 2019, only 19% of calls had no officers available to immediately respond. That was 156,000 out of more than 800,000 high-priority 911 calls. That non-response rate grew higher each year thereafter, hitting a high of 60% in 2022. That increase coincided with the city’s soft-on-crime response to both the George Floyd event and the pandemic.
Through May 10th of this year, 50% of high-priority 911 calls had no immediate response from police – an improvement over previous years but still far above 2019’s rate. Based on the experience of previous years, 2024’s numbers will most likely grow worse as the city’s criminal activity rises during the summer.
A coin-flip
A look at the full-year 2023 numbers show that regardless of the crime, it’s basically a 50/50 shot if there are going to be police available to respond to a high priority 911 call. As mentioned above, calls reporting a person shot only had an immediate response 57% of the time last year. The city’s 8,200 calls reporting a robbery had only a 55% immediate response rate. Stabbings, a 52% rate. The more than 86,000 instances of domestic disturbances, a 54% rate.
And now with violent crime in Chicago at a six-year high in 2024, hundreds of new shooting, stabbing, robbery, battery and other violent crime victims will be left waiting for help every week. Here are just a few of the high-priority calls police couldn’t immediately respond to this year through May 10:
- 4,778 – assaults in progress
- 5,313 – batteries in progress
- 1,489 – robbery in progress
- 4,799 – person with a gun
- 1,724 – person with a knife
- 1,781 – shots fired
- 280 – person shot
- 268 – person stabbed
Staffing
Lower staffing levels at CPD will likely get much of the blame for the worsening 911 response rate. The number of sworn police officers today, at 11,700, is down by about 1,700 since the beginning of 2019. As a result, today there are nearly 1,400 fewer sworn officers assigned to the city’s patrol districts compared to 2019. That’s about 20 percent fewer police available to respond to calls.
A good example
Back in May, a Wicker Park woman left her door open after letting her dog out. Soon after, two men wearing masks entered her home. “I saw two men wearing masks standing inside my house. I screamed – ‘I am calling the police’ and they bolted.” The woman called 911. They said help was on the way and instructed her to wait outside.
The woman waited. And waited. Help didn’t arrive. Six calls to 911 later, she finally got hold of a supervisor. He explained there were no units to send. He then recommended the woman call her alderman to encourage him to hire more police. She was also asked if she “had a weapon or considered getting one.”
Police finally arrived four hours later.
Read more from Wirepoints:
- ‘Justice-impacted individuals’: More of the same as Chicago’s violent crimes continue their six-year high
- Up to $410 million extra being spent on children of illegal immigrants at Chicago Public Schools
- A disappointing first year for Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson
Appendix
KING REPORT
| The King Report June 27, 2024 Issue 7272 | Independent View of the News |
| The yen/$ hit 160.87 (at 15:51 ET), its lowest level since 1986. The yuan slid as China’s 10-year bond yield fell to its lowest level (2.22%) since 2002. Japan’s chief forex fixer, Vice Finance Minister Masato Kanda, surfaced to proclaim that yen weakness is not justified and “I have a serious concern about the recent rapid weakening of the yen, and we are closely monitoring market trends with a high sense of urgency” and will intervene as needed. The last big Japanese yen intervention was a colossal flop. Kanda’s warning generated only a modest yen rally. @WSJmarkets: Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang said at the company’s annual meeting Wednesday that $50 trillion of heavy industry was ripe for automation in the next wave of artificial. Microsoft was likely responsible for 19% of NVIDIA’s revenue in FY24 and 22% in the fourth quarter. https://platformonomics.com/2024/02/follow-the-capex-triangulating-nvidia/comment-page-1/ Nvidia traded as high as 129.95, +3.86, at 8:02 ET on eager buying for an expected rally. Alas, NVDA fell to 125.31 at 9:07 ET. After a rebound to 127.19 on the NYSE opening, NVDA slid to 123.27 at 11:02 ET. Conditioned opening dip buyers pounced and drove NVDA to 128.12 at 10:07 ET. Alas, traders tried to liquidate, NVDA tumbled to 124.38 at 10:29 ET. Despite NVDA’s travails, the NY Fang+ Index rallied sharply, led by Tesla +5.38%, Amazon +4.14%, Snowflake +3.79%, and Apple +2.0% (near 14:30 ET, NVDA was -1.14%). Rivian soars as Volkswagen plows $5B into struggling EV maker: ‘Game changer’ https://trib.al/Zs7Ixt1 USUs sank to a low of 118 29/32, -1 8/32 at 10:35 ET on the yen and yuan declines. Gold sank on the higher US interest rates. The DJTA soared early on FedEx; but the DJIA was -153.20 at 9:50 ET. ESUs traded mostly lower during early Asian trading. After 21:00 ET, ESU turned positive and plodded higher until they hit a daily high of 5551.75 at 4:48 ET. They then tumbled to 5518.00 at 9:31 ET. NYSE opening dip buyers aggressively bought; ESUs jumped to 5534.50 at 10:21 ET. Trader liquidation pushed ESUs to a new daily low of 5516.25 at 11:11 ET. The rally to game the European close pushed ESUs to 5528.50 at 11:26 ET. After a modest retreat, ESUs jumped to 5541.50 at 11:55 ET. After trading sideways for 40 minutes, ESUs fell to 5526.75 at 13:20 ET. ESUs then traded sideways until the late manipulation began at 15:53 ET. ESUs soared 12 handles in 3 minutes! ESUs then sank 21 handles by 16:01 ET on 5 minutes of panic selling. Micron soared on the opening, hitting 143.07 at 9:32 ET on buying for its results that were due after the NYSE close. An apparent traders’ dump pushed MU to 139.54 at 11:11 ET. After a robust rebound to 142.61 at 12:28 ET, MU retreated and traded flat into the close. @bespokeinvest: Today the S&P 500 managed to rise on negative breadth. It’s now been five days in a row where price has gone in one direction and breadth has gone in the other. That ties the record streak from April 1999. https://x.com/bespokeinvest/status/1806080036572746107 US May New Home Sales 691k, -11.3%; 633k, -0.2%, expected; April revised to 698k from 634k @zerohedge: There is the inflection point: for the first time the median new home sale price drops below the median existing price. Wile E Coyote moment for housing imminent. https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1805968635183190464 @TripleNetInvest: Houston, we have a BIG problem… KBS REIT agreed to sell an office complex in West Houston at a massive 63% discount. CCI will acquire 19219 Katy Freeway for $17.6M, or $87 per SF… KBS paid $47M for it in 2016. There’s a much bigger problem in Texas… With ~300 empty office buildings, Houston dominates Texas in the ’empty office building rate’ in the US w/ 26.3% vacancy. Trailing behind it are two Texas cities: Dallas and Austin w/ a vacancy rates of 25.3% and 25.2% respectively. All three cities are facing alarming vacancy rates… This is absolutely shocking… UBS is attempting to sell a Midtown Manhattan office building via an ONLINE AUCTION, signaling the excruciating challenges of commercial real estate in NYC… The starting bid for the 920k SF building located at 135 W 50th St will be $7.5M, or $8 per SF. Why Economists and Citizens Have Different Inflation Realities Economists prefer to analyze and quote many economic data points in terms of percentage change… Regarding inflation, consumers are less concerned with growth rates and heavily focused on absolute prices. They remember that bread used to cost $4 a loaf and now costs $7… https://realinvestmentadvice.com/why-economists-and-citizens-have-different-inflation-realities/ @charliebilello: % Increase over the last 5 years… US Money Supply (M2): +42%; Average US New Home Price: +44%; “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.” – Milton Friedman https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1806019452611248532 Seattle Mandates $4.99 Fee on Uber Eats ‘To Help Drivers’, Deliveries Crash 45% (Socialism!) https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/seattle-mandates-499-fee-uber-eats-help-drivers-deliveries-crash-45 Positive aspects of previous session Mag 7 stocks, ex-NVDA, rallied sharply; Google hit an all-time high; the S&P 500 gained 21.43. The DJTA rallied sharply on FedEx Negative aspects of previous session The DJIA declined sharply early (but rallied to a modest gain) USUs got hammered on the yen. How long will it (yen) go? Panic selling of ESUs from 15:56 to 16:01 ET. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will the rotation and churning in equities produce? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5470.97 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5483.14 5451.87 Exclusive: Trump handed plan to halt US military aid to Kyiv unless it talks peace with Moscow Under the plan drawn up by Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, who both served as chiefs of staff in Trump’s National Security Council during his 2017-2021 presidency, there would be a ceasefire based on prevailing battle lines during peace talks, Fleitz said… https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-reviews-plan-halt-us-military-aid-ukraine-unless-it-negotiates-peace-with-2024-06-25/ Trump Peace Plan Will Withhold Weapons from Zelensky Unless He Agrees to Negotiate https://t.co/FeCqDkRRqp Israel re-establishes working groups on Iran nuclear program Israel and the U.S. are concerned Iran will try to advance its nuclear technology, including weaponization efforts, in the weeks leading to the U.S. presidential elections, according to two Israeli and two U.S. officials… Senior Israeli officials said Netanyahu’s directive to national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi to re-establish the teams came after a period of about a year and a half during which the working groups were frozen… https://www.axios.com/2024/06/26/israel-netanyahu-teams-iran-nuclear-program Air Force fires head of Sentinel ICBM program – Spokesman says Col. Charles Clegg’s removal “is not directly related” to the program’s ballooning costs. ($131B) The removal, first reported by Bloomberg, comes after the troubled program breached Nunn-McCurdy limits, which triggered the Pentagon to review the program and recertify it to stop it from being canceled… https://www.defenseone.com/policy/2024/06/air-force-fires-head-sentinel-program/397646/ Biden admin official pressured medical experts to nix age limit guidelines for transgender surgery: A top Biden administration health official successfully pressured an international group of medical experts to do away with age limit guidelines for transgender procedures, including gender-changing surgery, for minors, an unsealed court document shows. Adm. Rachel Levine (A trans), the assistant secretary for health at the Department of Health and Human Services, feared that the World Professional Association for Transgender Health’s late 2021 draft guidelines would make it difficult for American transgender youth to obtain access to the procedures, according to email excerpts between WPATH members included in an Alabama court filing… https://nypost.com/2024/06/26/us-news/biden-administration-official-rachel-levine-pressured-medical-experts-to-remove-age-limit-guidelines-for-transgender-surgery/ @sentimentrader: The percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 holding above their 200-day averages has consistently held above 70%. For stocks in the Nasdaq Composite, that figure is closer to 40%. A spread of 30% has been rare over the past decade and generally coincided with markets in broad topping formations. https://t.co/Je7imczQLc The reason for the late panic selling in ESUs turned out to be MU’s results: Adj EPS .62 (.50 exp.); EPS .30; Revenue $6.81B, $6.67B exp. MU tumbled 10.5% to 127.37 (142.36 close) on MU’s projection of Q4 EPS at ‘about 1.08’ (1.02 exp.) and Rev of $7.4B to &7.8B, $7.58B consensus. Though the projections were better than published consensus, real Street expectations were higher ($8B Q4 Rev). @StockMKTNewz: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just filed for his sale of 240,000 shares of Nvidia between $118.63-$126.19 per share as part of a 10b5-1 pre-planned trading plan. Jensen brought in $29.3 Million (Pre-Tax) from the sale. https://x.com/StockMKTNewz/status/1806059333530136587 Today – The equity market has been churning and rotating for the last several sessions. The major rotational has been out of Mag 7 and into the Dow indices. Yesterday, there was a rotation within the NY Fang+ Index. This action typically occurs near some type of top. Fangs should sink early due to Micron; NVDA fell as much as 1.3% after MU’s results. Will another internal Mag 7 rotation keep Fangs and related trading sardines buoyant. Only the Shadow knows? NQUs are -125.75; ESUs are -24.50; USUs are -13/32 at 21:40 ET. Expected econ data: Q1 GDP 1.4%, Consumption 2.0%, GDP Price Index 3.0%, Core PCE Price Index 3.0%; May Advance Goods Trade Balance -$96.0B; May Wholesale Inventories 0.1% m/m, Retail Inventories 0.4% m/m; Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.828m; May Durable Goods Orders -0.5% m/m, Ex-Trans +0.2%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.1%, Shipment 0.2%; May Pending Home Sales 0.6% m/m; KC Fed Mfg. Index -4 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5252; 100-day MA: 5183; 150-day MA: 5028; 200-day MA: 4856 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,816; 100-day MA: 38,846; 150-day MA: 38,254; 200-day MA: 37,151 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5477.90 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4750.24 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5241.78 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5397,85 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5479.73 triggers a buy signal Beaucoup political news is appearing – the campaigns for the 2024 General Election are heating up! DNC Sent Millions to Law Firms Behind ‘Unprecedented Lawfare’ Campaign Against Trump The DNC has paid close to $2 million since August of 2021 to Kaplan Hecker & Fink LLP for “legal services,” according to the DNC’s FEC filings. Kaplan Hecker & Fink LLP founding partner Roberta A. Kaplan represented E. Jean Carroll in her sexual assault and defamation suits against Trump. The New York Times previously reported that Reid Hoffman, the billionaire co-founder of LinkedIn, helped pay for Carroll’s lawsuits… https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/25/dnc-democratic-national-committee-law-firm-payments-e-jean-carroll-trump-supreme-court/ GOP Rep. Luna says she plans to force inherent contempt vote on Friday against Garland – An inherent contempt vote, which would result in the arrest of Garland, has not taken place in close to a century… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/gop-rep-luna-plans-force-inherent-contempt-vote-friday-against-garland Dem Rep. Jamaal Bowman, AOC BFF, Squad Member, fire alarm puller to disrupt House Floor Vote, pro Hamas, anti-Israel, and copious spewer of venom, vulgarities, and stupid Schiff lost a Dem primary to George Latimer. Bowman had infamous verbal altercations with GOP Rep. Massey, perhaps the smartest person on Capitol Hill: BA & MS mech engineering MIT, won MIT’s 2.70 Design Comp, 24 patents. Trump-backed Republican seeking to oust Democrat lawmaker wins Colorado House race Gabe Evans advanced to the Nov. 5 general election to face off against incumbent Rep. Yadira Caraveo, a Democrat https://t.co/uBXI58BjB2 Conservative firebrand wins House primary after switching districts after narrow 2022 win Boebert moved to Colorado’s 4th Congressional District after GOP Rep Ken Buck resigned from Congress (Buck was virulently anti-Trump) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/conservative-firebrand-wins-gop-primary-after-switching-districts-following-narrow-2022-win @ShadowofEzra: A message from Hillary Clinton’s email addressed to a number of military officers requested different ways to stop Julian Assange. Hillary Clinton suggested for an assassination. “Can’t we just drone this guy? https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1805399406885441994 @WallStreetApes: Now That Julian Assange Will Be Freed After Striking A Plea Deal, Bill Clinton & Hillary Clinton Have A Lot To Worry About – Julian Assange Exposed Hillary Clinton Was Taking Saudi Arabia Donations & Approving The Arms Sales Supplied To ISIS… https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1805395088962732292 Hillary Clinton releasing new book with ‘warning to all American voters’ weeks before election https://t.co/upyT9s03Hn With Trump increasingly looking like the winner, Hillary and others that have much to fear about a vengeful DJT are going into panic-attack mode. @TudorDixon: Hillary Clinton is now giving unsolicited debate advice, but she forgot to mention that CNN (Donna Brazile) leaked the questions to her in 2016. Obama has ‘anxiety’ over election, holding secret meetings with Biden to strategize on beating Trump https://www.foxnews.com/media/obama-has-anxiety-over-election-holding-secret-meetings-biden-strategize-beating-trump-report @alx: FLASHBACK: WikiLeaks exposes Former CNN host and DNC Chair Donna Brazile leaking a townhall question to Hillary Clinton. And now this week, CNN is trying to gaslight the American people that their network and moderators, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, aren’t biased. https://x.com/alx/status/1805493410792394905 Ya think CNN will leak debate questions to Team Obama-Biden? Or will Team Obama-Biden give questions to CNN that they want the moderators to ask Biden and Trump? @JackPosobiec: Here is Jake Tapper angrily demanding CNN cut off live coverage of Trump being greeted by Cubans in a Miami restaurant. https://t.co/zYFkGHQ2Ct Yes America, he said it! Tapper’s past pokes at Trump renew CNN bias concerns on eve of debate “They don’t even want you to see Jake Tapper’s past,” Sean Spicer said. https://justthenews.com/accountability/media/wedtapper-and-bash-debate-draft @ByronYork: Trump on how this debate came about: ‘What they did, I’m pretty sure, is that they approached me with a debate that I couldn’t take. Dana Bash, Jake Tapper [Trump referred to the CNN anchor/commentator as ‘Fake Tapper’ throughout], no audience, sitting down, originally sitting down, a dead debate, turn off the mikes when you’re not speaking so I can’t interrupt him….They knew I wouldn’t accept that because it was CNN, Dana Bash, Jake Tapper, and I like an audience and probably he doesn’t, who knows? So, they thought they would present it, I would say no, and they would say we can’t debate because Trump said no. So, I said yes before they even gave me the terms. So, he got roped into it.’ CNN has put in place rules for the first presidential debate that other news outlets say are unusual and restrictive – Other channels aren’t allowed to cut away from the debate, or air analysis during commercial breaks… The White House Correspondents’ Association wrote to CNN on Tuesday requesting that the network allow their representatives to sit in the studio during the debate, a request the network denied… The network is allowing a limited number of still photographers in the debate room. Some 800 others will be watching a feed in a building across the street from the main studio… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cnn-exclusive-presidential-debate-rules-025050137.html Trump team says Biden will ‘probably be filled with Adderall’ at presidential debate https://t.co/pyuJbVS501 @RNCResearch: Biden campaign spokesman Adrienne Elrod says Crooked Joe Biden won’t commit to taking a drug test before the debate. Crooked Joe is currently holed away at Camp David perfecting the cocktail. https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1805653097940705779 Trump teases a new nickname for Biden in furious rant saying he ‘can’t hit a golf ball 10 yards’ and listing all of his ‘lies’ a day before the debate ‘From the 51 Fake Intelligence Agents, to Russia, Russia, Russia, to the Fake ‘Suckers and Losers Story’ he created about our beloved Military, to cheating in College and saying he was first in his Law School Class when he was actually LAST, to claiming he marched for Civil Rights, drove trucks, and has a 6.2 Handicap (He can’t hit the Golf Ball 10 yards, but that’s a minor detail!), and so many more falsehoods, the man is a walking LYING MACHINE, and a Fact Checker’s DREAM,’ Trump wrote… Trump says Biden ‘created’ a story about Trump calling people who serve in the military suckers and losers, but it has actually been attributed to former Trump chief of staff, Gen. John Kelly. In addition to calling Biden a ‘lying machine’, Trump added, ‘Maybe we should call him ‘Lyin’ Joe’ in addition to Crooked?‘… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13572335/Trump-teases-new-nickname-Biden-furious-rant-saying-hit-golf-ball-10-yards-listing-lies-day-debate.html Ann Coulter: How Trump Will Lose the Debate Maybe he shouldn’t concentrate on impressing people who will never vote for him Trump had begun selling out even before the 2016 Republican Convention. He turned everything over to his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and Jared assured him he didn’t need rural and working-class whites. “Where else are they going to go?” he said. In 2020, Trump found out. The only demographic he lost in 2020, compared to 2016, was white people, especially white men… Today, Trump is back at it… he’s blowing off his available voters in order to chase the pipe dream of winning the black and Hispanic vote… It will never, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever work. Immigrants — all immigrants — have always voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats… That’s why the outcome of every single presidential election for at least the last half-century has been determined by slight movements in the white vote… If it were remotely possible for immigrants ever to vote 60% to 70% for the GOP, instead of 60% to 70% for the Democrats, Sen. Chuck Schumer would be demanding an Iron Dome on our southern border. https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/how-trump-will-lose-the-debate @zerohedge: TS Lombard: “For Biden and Trump, the country’s oldest-ever major party presidential contenders, proving their mental acuity in a 90-minute debate without props or notes will outrank all else. If a shaky Biden underperforms his rival, pressure from big Democratic donors to ditch his candidacy will surge, especially with Biden now trailing on fundraising for the second straight month. If Trump goes off the rails, Republicans may wince, but the GOP ticket won’t change. For Biden – with a net fundraising shortfall of $80+mn in April/May, after Trump’s NY criminal conviction led to a surge in GOP donations – it will not be as easy to turn the tide,” Ergo, Trump supporters should hope that The Big Guy does well enough to stay on the ticket. PS – Reportedly Obama political brain David Axelrod called for the unusually early debate (They’re usually after the conventions.) so that Dems could jettison Joey Baby if he stumbles. Axios omits crucial details about economists who say Trump will destroy the economy The letter’s Nobel Prize-winning signatories show political donations to President Biden’s 2020 and 2024 campaigns. The signatories also donated tens of thousands of dollars to other Democrat candidates and signed previous letters supporting Biden’s agenda, including attacking “selfish and restless” Trump, a Fox News Digital review found… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/axios-omits-crucial-details-about-economists-say-trump-will-destroy-economy Gov. Newsom and family to move out of Sacramento https://www.kcra.com/article/governor-newsom-family-move-out-of-sacramento/61245020 SF Chronicle: (CA Gov) Gavin Newsom is mentally checking himself out of California and into the White House – Judging from his State of the State speech and his impending relocation away from Sacramento to Marin County, California Gov. Newsom is ready to move on “We are presented with a choice between a society that embraces our values and a world darkened by division and discrimination,” Newsom proclaimed early on in his address… What do these flowery, dramatic statements do for the more than 6 in 10 Californians who, in a Public Policy Institute of California survey released this month, said the state is heading in the wrong direction? Not much — because the prerecorded speech, which aired across the governor’s social media channels Tuesday morning, isn’t really intended for them. Rather, it’s intended for a national audience — particularly “the California haters,” “Republicans” and “lawmakers in red states,” whom Newsom accused of wanting “to tear us down because they know our success is a spotlight on their own failures.” https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/emilyhoeven/article/gavin-newsom-california-white-house-19536820.php James Clapper, Mr. October Surprise: How Obama’s Intel Czar Rigged 2016 and 2020 Debates Against Trump – Just before Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton faced off in their second presidential debate, then-National Intelligence Director James Clapper met in the White House with a small group of advisers to President Obama to hatch a plan to put out a first-of-its-kind intelligence report warning the voting public that “the Russian government” was interfering in the election by allegedly breaching the Clinton campaign’s email system… It seemed to lend credence to what the Clinton camp was telling the media — that Trump was working with Russian President Vladimir Putin through a secret back channel to steal the election. Sure enough, the Democratic nominee pounced on it to smear Trump at the debate… In 2020, he was the lead signatory on the “intelligence” statement that discredited the New York Post’s October bombshell exposing emails from Hunter Biden’s laptop, which documented how Hunter’s corrupt Burisma paymasters had met with Joe Biden when he was vice president. It was released Oct. 19, just three days before Trump and Biden debated each other in Nashville… https://www.realclearinvestigations.com/articles/2024/06/26/james_clapper_mr_october_surprise_how_obamas_intel_czar_rigged_2016_and_2020_debates_against_trump_1040444.html Trump argues Biden ‘left black Americans behind’ as campaign plans Atlanta barbershop stop as part of increased outreach https://t.co/TsrmBFL3QH @julie_kelly2: NEW: Jack Smith’s team just filed a response opposing Donald Trump’s motion to dismiss docs case based on “spoliation” of evidence seized during MAL raid. Wait…FBI wanted security cameras off for “agent safety?” But I have been told by the experts that no danger existed! https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1805583407667163545 More confirmation from DOJ interview of MAL employee. FBI instructed the Secret Service that security cameras needed to be shut off for “agent safety.” MAL employee shut down the servers remotely–the servers were restarted about half hour later at Trump’s lawyer direction. Senate committee advances bill to draft women into US military https://t.co/WElKKUjik1 Speaker Mike Johnson approves House intervening in Bannon case before prison sentence starts The Democrat J6 committee was “wrongfully constituted and we think the work was tainted,” Johnson declares https://justthenews.com/government/congress/speaker-mike-johnson-approves-house-intervening-bannon-case-prison-sentence Fire-alarm lover Jamaal Bowman lost his expensive primary last night and seemed a bit … unstable during his concession speech – Yeah, hard to believe this guy, who randomly performed a hip-hop song in front of tens of people over the weekend, lost in the primary (the most expensive House primary of all time, by the way)… https://t.co/0UGAMVMR5g @CollinRugg: Georgia judge Christina Peterson has been removed from the bench after she was apparently caught on camera hitting a police officer. The Georgia Supreme Court ruled that Peterson has broken multiple Code of Judicial Conduct policies since taking office… https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1805750804600733778 @bykatiebuehler: A 6-3 Supreme Court ends a challenge to the Biden admin’s work with social media companies to combat the spread of misinforamation, ruling the states/individuals don’t have standing. CT, SA & NG dissent. https://x.com/bykatiebuehler/status/1805965395712492025 A 6-3 Supreme Court rules a federal bribery law doesn’t cover gratuities, or gifts given to public officials for acts they’ve already taken. Sotomayor, Kagan & Jackson dissent. https://x.com/bykatiebuehler/status/1805966902113476694 @DC_Draino: There is a lot of doom and gloom about the 6-3 SCOTUS decision in Murthy v. Biden and how it impacts the 1st Amendment. I would like to quell some of those concerns. This decision reversed the injunction based on *standing*. SCOTUS said that without the plaintiffs having sufficient standing, they could not decide the case on the merits. The case is still allowed to proceed *on the merits* in lower federal courts as to whether the gov’t violated the plaintiff’s 1st Amendment right to free speech on social media. Long story short, this battle for free speech rights is NOT over and SCOTUS will likely get further involved down the road. Turley: Biden is a threat to free speech. Trump should call him on it. Donald Trump and other presidential candidates are missing a compelling argument going into this election. While democracy is not on the ballot, free speech is. https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2024/06/25/biden-trump-debate-free-speech/74170141007/ @TonyClimate: The percentage of the US to reach 90F by June 23 was 19th lowest on record since 1895. Fakest “record heatwave” ever. https://t.co/seB9rLQa3F @ExpertsPostLs: FLASHBACK: 15 years ago today, John Kerry said: “In 5 years… we will have the first ice-free Arctic summer.” Kerry’s prediction became wrong 10 years ago. https://t.co/CwJBlMFpFl BBG: Emmanuel Macron’s closest allies are worried his brand is toxic https://t.co/cJhZxnUxKX The French president is complicating the political lives of his supporters by refusing to keep quiet. | |
GREG HUNTER
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