GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $3.80 TO $2329.50
SILVER PRICE UP $0.27 TO $29.22
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2323.75
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.10
Bitcoin morning price:$61,542 DOWN 125 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $60,391 DOWN 1176 dollars//
Platinum price closing UP $9.10 TO $1000.60
Palladium price; UP $41.30 AT $978.95
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 40 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//JULY TO JULY
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 28 Jun 2024 09:05:35 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3180.20 DOWN 6.80 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1838.05 DOWN 2.81 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2169.67 DOWN 4.08 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,324.500000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/27/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/01/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 565
323 C HSBC 221
365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 428
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 843
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 14 41
661 C JP MORGAN 861 59
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 8
690 C ABN AMRO 15
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 23
905 C ADM 32
TOTAL: 1,558 1,558
JPMorgan stopped 59/1558
FOR JULY 2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 1558 NOTICES FOR 155,800 OZ or 4.846 TONNES
total notices so far: 1558 contracts for 155,800 Oz (4.846 tonnes)
FOR JUNE:
SILVER NOTICES: 3867 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 19.335
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month :3867 for 19.335 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $3.80 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.27 AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WTHDRAWAL OF 913,000 FROM THE SLV
// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 437.265 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 437.265 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1773 CONTRACTS TO 158,558 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS SURPRISINGLY ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR TINY GAIN OF $0.01 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET LOSS OF 1184 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD MAJOR SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 439 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY JUNE 4 AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, JUNE 7 AND AGAIN ON YESTERDAY’S TRADING
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 439 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.01) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1273 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.01.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A STRONG SIZED 500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE)
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 28.490 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 439 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 84 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 DAYS, total 22,115 contracts: OR 110.575 MILLION OZ (1106 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 110.575 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1773 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 500 ISSUED FOR JULY AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 28.496 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1273 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 500 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND SOME LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (500) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 3807 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 19.335 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5796 OI CONTRACTS TO 448,086 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 870 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (5796 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $23.70 IN PRICE/THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
NEW STANDING 7.5645 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $23.70 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7451 OI CONTRACTS (23.18 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1655 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 448,086
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7481 CONTRACTS WITH 5796 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1655 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7451 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1882 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1655 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 5796 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7451 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES
//NEW STANDING /JULY 7.5645 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1882 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JUNE. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 56,299 CONTRACTS OR 5,629,900 OZ OR 175.11 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2811 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 175.11 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 175.11 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.92% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF JUNE. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (APRIL), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1773 CONTRACTS OI TO 158,558 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 500 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 500 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1773 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 500 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1189 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 6.367 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.01 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.55 PTS OR 0.73% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 2.14 PTS OR 0.01%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 241.54 OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.14%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2625 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2927/ Oil UP TO 82.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.87 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 5796 CONTRACTS TO 448,086 WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.70 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURSDAY’S STRONG GAIN WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND MAJOR SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1655 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 1655 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1655 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7451 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1655 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 5796 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.70/THURSDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS A GOOD SIZED 1882 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN THURSDAY’S TRADING
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (7.5645 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY; 7.5645 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $23.70 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7451 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 23.18 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 7,5645 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $23.70
WE HAVE REMOVED 870 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7451 CONTRACTS OR 745,100 OZ (23.18 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 155,583 contracts//poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
JUNE 28 JULY GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JULY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | nil . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 14,202.283 OZ JPMorgan |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1558 notice(s) 155,800 OZ 4.846 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 874 contracts 87400 OZ 2.1718 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1558 notices 155,800 oz 4.846 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposit:
i) Into JPMorgan 14,202.287 oz
total deposit: 14,202.287 oz
customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS nil oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 2432 contracts having GAINED 417 contracts.
Thus be definition, the initial amount of gold standing for July is as follows:
2432 contracts x 100 oz per notice (contract) = 243200 oz or 7.5645 tonnes
AUGUST GAINED 933 CONTRACTS UP TO 348,658 CONTRACTS
OCTOBER GAINED 524 CONTRACTS UP TO 20,123 CONTRACTS
We had 1558 contracts filed for today representing 155,800 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 861 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1558 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 59 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1558) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (2432 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1558 x 100 oz per contract( equals 243,200 OZ OR 7.5645 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1558 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (2432// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1558) x 100 oz which equals 243200 oz (7.5645 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 7,5645 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,682,975.981 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,580,810.306 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,834,327.184( 243.68 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,746,483.122 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,151,352 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.332 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JUN 28/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 580,655.486 oz Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 748,671.379 oz JPMorgan Loomis |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 3867 CONTRACT(S) (19,335,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1831 contracts (9.155 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 3867 Contracts (19.335 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits:
i)Into JPMorgan: 569,894.499 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 178,776.880 oz
total customer deposit 748,671.379 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.402million oz/297.063million or 43.23%
adjustment: 2 customer to dealer
a)customer to dealer CNT 517,808.640 oz:
b) customer to dealer Manfra: 579,685.693 oz
customer withdrawals:
i
ii) Out of Delaware: 580,655.485 0z
total withdrawal: 580,655.485 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 74.859MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.063
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JUNE:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 5698 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 6982 CONTRACT(S).
THUS BE DEFINITION, THE INITIAL AMOUNT OF SILVER STANDING FOR DELIVERY IN THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY IS AS FOLLOWS:
5698 NOTICES X 5000 OZ PER NOTICE = 28.490 MILLION OZ
AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 512 CONTRACTS TO 1618
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 3781 CONTRACTS TO 129,396
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3867 for 19.335 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 80,645 HUGE
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 3867 x 5,000 oz = 19.335 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY ((5698) and the number of notices served upon today 3867 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 3867 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (5698)x number of notices served upon today minus (3867)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 28.490 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 28.490 million oz.
There are 74.859 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 829.05 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 437.265 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
Alasdair Macleod…
End-month markdown
Chinese buying unwound into yesterday’s London morning fix?
| ALASDAIR MACLEODJUN 28 |
This week, gold and silver suffered a significant markdown on Tuesday and Wednesday as Comex contracts ran into the month end expirations with the additional factor of the last trading day in the half year, when bullion bank traders report their profits and positions.
MacleodFinance Substack is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
In eearly trade this morning gold was $2327, up $6 on balance from last Friday’s close. And silver was $29.14, down 70 cents on the same timeframe. Futures trading in gold picked up slightly from low levels, while in silver it declined in good overall turnover.
Our next chart shows how Open Interest has progressed in the two Comex contracts:
With gold’s Open Interest under 450,000 contracts, it can be regarded as moderately oversold overall, while silver’s Open Interest being higher is vulnerable to profit-taking, which has been the story of this week.
Gold’s trading yesterday (Thursday) was interesting. It was clear that overnight Asian demand was being unwound into the London morning fix. After the fix, there was a short dip, after which the price was firm for the rest of the day, closing at $2328, up $30 (1.28%). It seems that this Asian demand (presumably Chinese) was using the month-end dip to accumulate bullion at around $2300. This is sensible accumulation by professional dealers, not to be confused with speculative demand, which for the moment is subdued.
It is this accumulation which quietly takes away all the physical liquidity backing western paper markets, and led to the explosive rally which took gold from $1984 on St Valentines’ Day to $2432 on 12 April. It followed a similar period of price consolidation. Will this pattern repeat?
It seems likely, and stackers would do worse than follow these professionals, presumably Chinese banks offering gold account facilities to their retail customers.
The notable development in currencies and bonds is the renewed pressure faced by the yen and Japanese government bonds. These charts are next.
With the yen crashing through the JPY160 level, price inflation pressures are increasing forcing the Bank of Japan to consider raising its discount rate and plan to reduce its bond buying at its next policy meeting. Clearly, without this buying and pressure to raise interest rates bond yields will rise even further, creating even greater mark-to-market losses for banks, pension funds, insurance companies, and most of all for the Bank of Japan itself which owns nearly 60% of the entire JGB market.
This looks like a problem which is spreading. Already, a farming cooperative bank, Norinchuking Bank has declared escalating losses on its foreign bond holdings, which it will now liquidate. This is likely to be followed by other banks already making significant losses on their JGBs, particularly in their holdings of French and UK debt. The only redeeming feature has been the offset of foreign exchange profits. But the withdrawal of Japanese capital from international markets could not come at a worse time.
Furthermore, the US Government has been relying on US institutions in the carry trade to buy short-term debt financed out of yen borrowing for the yield uplift. The prospect of this arbitrage diminishing, together with China continuing to liquidate her US Treasury holdings is concerning for the US Government and its debt trap.
end
CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
end
4. other gold commentaries/podcasts/live from the vault Andrew Maguire 179
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire tackles the audience’s burning questions, assessing the possibility of a gold price correction and sharing insider information on the resumption of gold buying.. …
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.55 PTS OR 0.73% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 2.14 PTS OR 0.01%// Nikkei CLOSED UP 241.54 OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.14%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2625 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2927/ Oil UP TO 82.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.87 /Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2625
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2927
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.55 PTS OR 0.73 %
HANG SENG CLOSED 2.14 PTS OR 0.01%
2. Nikkei closed UP 241.54 PTS OR 0.61 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.56 EURO RISES TO 1.0709 UP 1 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1,041 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.57 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4670/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 4.082 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.427%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.743
3j Gold at $2334.15//Silver at: 29.33 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 68/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.67
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 160.57/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.041% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8995 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9633 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.305 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.449 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.722 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.88…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1944 UP 1 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Futures Jump After Biden’s Disastrous Debate, Core PCE Looms
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 08:03 AM
Futures are higher led by small caps with tech stocks also mostly higher, as markets start pricing in a Trump presidency following what even Bloomberg admitted was a “disastrous” debate performance by Biden which is making Democrats panic. As of 7:45am ET, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.4%, suggesting this week’s rally on Wall Street is set to continue, with both indexes on course for a third quarter of gains amid expectations that signs of more bad economic growth will give the Fed more room to ease policy this year. That said, not even a looming core PCE which will likely show continued easing in prices (May PCE est 0.0% MoM, down from 0.3%, 2.6% YoY, down from 2.7%) is having an impact on bond yields which are notably higher this morning as is the USD as markets take a long, hard look at what inflation will look like under Trump’s tariff-ridden regime (spoiler alert: higher). Commodities are mixed: oil and precious metals are higher; base metals are lower. Today’s macro focus will be the May PCE release to access the Goldilocks narrative. Survey expects a 0.1% MoM print vs. 0.2% prior; on YoY basis, survey sees the number dropping to 2.6% survey vs. 2.8% prior).
In premarket trading, Nike shares tumbled 15% after the sneaker maker’s Q1 sales outlook missed Wall Street expectations. Following the print, UBS downgraded its recommendation on the stock to neutral, saying the fundamental trends were much worse than analysts had realized. Morgan Stanley also moved to the sidelines, seeing the catalyst for their prior overweight thesis on the stock as “out of view.” Megacap tech are mostly outperforming: NVDA +65bp, AMZN +40bp, AAPL +54bp, GOOG/L +48bp. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Infinera shares soar 17% after Nokia agreed to buy the maker of digital optical telecommunications equipment for $2.3 billion.
- Trump Media & Technology Group shares jump 7.9% following Thursday’s presidential debate between President Joe Biden and Donald Trump, with the latter coming away looking stronger.
The elephant in the room, of course, was last night catastrophic debate by Joe Biden who ended his presidential campaign in less than 2 hours because as Bloomberg notes, “Biden failed to ameliorate concern about his age in the presidential debate, offering remarks in a hoarse voice and often misspeaking and meandering. A thousand-yard stare on the split screen didn’t help. Donald Trump won the debate, according to 67% of watchers polled by a CNN flash poll. Democrats expressed alarm about Biden’s candidacy, but the president told reporters he intends to stay on the ticket.”
And now that the debate is in the history books, traders are scrambling to evaluate what the Trump presidency will look like; conveniently we just published a great primer yesterday.
Attention now turns to the week’s final event, the Fed’s preferred inflation print, the core PCE. “The fundamental question behind the PCE print is whether there will be at least one rate cut this year,” said Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Global Asset Management. “If it goes in a way the consensus and the Fed aren’t anticipating, then it will be problematic for equity and bond markets alike.”
European stocks pared an early gain, weighed down by a decline in France’s equity benchmark ahead of the weekend’s parliamentary election. Investors pulled the most money out of European equity funds in almost four months in the week through Wednesday, according to a Bank of America Corp. note citing EPFR Global data. France’s CAC 40 index dropped 0.5% to a five-month low, and the nation’s bonds underperformed, with the 10-year yield rising to the highest since November. The main concern for investors is that the new French government will drive the country deeper into debt. “We retain a cautious stance on French financial assets due to the high event risks and the slim chances of meaningful fiscal consolidation, regardless of the election result,” Bank J Safra Sarasin strategists led by Karsten Junius said in a note. L’Oreal SA fell after the French beauty-products maker said it expects slower growth in the overall beauty market this year. Puma SE and JD Sports Fashion Plc declined, tracking Nike’s slump. Nokia Oyj shares rose as much as 4.4% after the Finnish mobile-phone company agreed to buy US-listed optical transmission equipment maker Infinera. Here are the other notable European movers:
- Nokia shares rise as much as 4.6% after the Finnish company agrees to buy US-listed optical transmission equipment maker Infinera for $2.3 billion.
- Saab shares rise as much as 5.1% as the defense firm is to join Sweden’s main stock benchmark on July 1, following Nasdaq’s semi-annual changes.
- Keywords Studios shares gain as much as 6.5% to £23.20 after the video game services company said it’s likely to accept an updated offer from EQT Group of £24.50 per share in cash.
- Tyman shares rise as much as 4.6% after the UK construction firm and Quanex agreed on a revised proposal to increase the cash value received by Tyman shareholders through a special interim dividend of 15 pence/share.
- PKO Bank shares gain as much as 1.3% to a record high after shareholders of Poland’s biggest lender approve mgmt’s plan to pay 2.59 zloty/share as dividend from 2023 profit.
- Ercros shares climb as much as 13% to €3.93 after Esseco Industrial launched a voluntary, competing public tender offer for the shares in the industrial company.
- L’Oreal shares fall as much as 3.7%, declining for a second day after CEO Nicolas Hieronimus flagged slower growth for the beauty market this year as China weakness weighs on sales.
- Adidas shares hold steady in the face of Nike’s sales warning, with Warburg analysts citing a pre-close call held late Thursday by the German sportswear maker.
- Teamviewer shares fall as much as 8.2% on Friday. The firm detected an irregularity in the company’s internal corporate IT environment on June 26, according to a statement on Thursday.
- JD Sports shares slide as much as 6.6% after Nike issued a full-year outlook that missed expectations. Sports apparel retailer peer Puma falls as much as 3.4%.
- Air France-KLM shares drop as much as 7%, hitting a record low, after Barclays downgraded the stock to equal-weight from overweight, citing political instability in France.
- Safestore shares falls as much as 4.8% as Morgan Stanley downgrades the UK storage firm to equal-weight, citing cost pressures and delays to development plans.
Earlier, Asian equities rose, on track for a weekly gain, as the lack of hawkish comments in the US presidential debate offered some respite for Chinese stocks, with traders turning their focus to a key inflation data due Friday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained as much as 0.6%, poised to post its first weekly advance in three. Japan’s Topix index reached its highest level since 1990 due to a rally in financial firms courtesy of the latest plunge in th eyen, while tech heavy-markets such as Taiwan and South Korea also advanced. Hong Kong stock benchmarks recouped early losses and edged away from technical correction territory as traders assessed the debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.
In FX, the dollar hovered near an eight-month high, on track for a sixth weekly gain. The greenback initially rose as markets assessed Trump was the victor in the debate. It’s a foretaste of how markets might react to a second Trump presidency, and suggests the US currency could be a major beneficiary. Meanwhile, South Africa’s rand soared 1.5% on renewed optimism the country’s two largest parties are moving closer to a power-sharing deal.
“Markets likely extrapolated today’s debate outcome to the actual election outcome in November,” said Carol Kong, a strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “Trump’s policies are likely to add to inflationary pressures and escalate trade tensions, thereby supporting US interest rates and the safe-haven US dollar.”
In rates, Treasuries retreated, paring gains from the prior session, when lackluster US economic data reinforced speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this year to prevent a bigger slowdown in the economy. Economists expect the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE Price Index, slowed to an annualized rate 2.6% last month from 2.8%. That would be the lowest reading since March 2021, though it remains above the central bank’s goal for 2% inflation. French bonds also drop, underperforming their German counterparts and widening the 10-year yield spread by 2bps to around 84bps. French, Spanish and Italian EU harmonized CPI rose inline with estimates and prompted little reaction.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1% to trade near $82.60 a barrel. Spot gold is steady around $2,328/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes May personal income/spending, PCE price index (8:30am), June MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am), University of Michigan sentiment (10am) and Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Fed speakers scheduled for the session include Daly (8:40am, 12:40pm) and Bowman (12pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,561.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 513.47
- MXAP up 0.3% to 180.38
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 566.34
- Nikkei up 0.6% to 39,583.08
- Topix up 0.6% to 2,809.63
- Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,718.61
- Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,967.40
- Sensex up 0.2% to 79,373.31
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 7,767.47
- Kospi up 0.5% to 2,797.82
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.45%
- Euro little changed at $1.0694
- Brent Futures up 0.7% to $86.97/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,329.85
- US Dollar Index up 0.12% to 106.03
Top Overnight News
- The IMF has urged the US to “urgently” address its mounting fiscal burden, as it took aim at the tax plans of both presidential candidates just hours before their first electoral debate. FT
- Japan’s economic data has a (slightly) hawkish bias, with higher industrial production for May (+2.8% M/M vs. the Street +2%) and a slightly firmer core Tokyo CPI for June (+1.8% vs. the Street +1.7%). RTRS
- Apple’s China iPhone shipments rose 40% in May, off the previous month’s pace of growth despite steep discounts. BBG
- NKE down 15% pre mkt reported a miss on FQ4 sales and provided very weak guidance for F25. WSJ
- Argentina’s Congress approved President Javier Milei’s signature pro-business reforms in a final 147 to 107 vote. Lawmakers also approved the return of income taxes, reversing the Senate’s bid to undo the measure and giving the government breathing room to reach its fiscal targets. BBG
- France heads to the polls for its first round of voting on Sunday with Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party continuing to widen its lead. President Emmanuel Macron’s group trails in third place. BBG
- European inflation expectations ticked down according to the latest ECB survey, including over the next 12 months (from 2.9% to 2.8%) and 36 months (from 2.4% to 2.3%). ECB
- Iran has expanded its most sensitive nuclear production site in recent weeks. And for the first time, some leaders are dropping their insistence that the nuclear program is for peaceful purposes. NYT
- The US, Israel and Ukraine are in talks to supply Kyiv with up to eight Patriot air defense systems, dramatically improving its ability to counter Russian air strikes. FT
US Presidential Debate
- US President Biden said during the first presidential debate that the US economy was falling when Trump came out of the presidency and that the Trump economy rewarded the rich and raised the deficit, while he said that Trump exaggerates and lies about border security in which everything he says is a lie.
- Former President Trump said they had the greatest economy in the history of the US under his administration and had the greatest economy in the world but Biden did something disastrous by encouraging illegal immigrants, while he added that immigrants from everywhere flock to the US because of Biden and are killing US citizens. Trump also said he achieved a lot in the field of economics and that inflation is currently killing the US which became a third-world country under the Biden administration, as well as noted that tariffs will reduce deficits and check countries like China. Furthermore, Trump said there was no terror under his administration and that the world is blowing up under Biden, while he added Iran was broke and Hamas would never attack Israel under his administration, as well as claimed that he would have the war between Russia and Ukraine settled before he takes office.
- CNN poll showed about 67% of debate followers saw Trump as the winner; 81% of registered voters who watched the debate said it had no effect on their choice for President, 5% said the debate made them change their mind on whom to vote for.
- Following the debate, Politico reports that some Democrats were so concerned by Biden’s performance that they are discussing replacing him on the ticket; however, the likes of Governor Newsom said that kind of talk is “unhelpful” and “unnecessary”. Additionally, advisors acknowledged that not much is possible unless Biden steps aside.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly higher heading to month-, quarter-, and half-year end following the positive bias stateside but with gains capped as participants digest a slew of data and await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. ASX 200 was led higher by tech strength but with upside limited by weakness in miners and materials. Nikkei 225 benefitted from recent currency weakness, while there was also a slew of data releases including mostly firmer-than-expected Tokyo inflation and a return to growth in Industrial Production. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive in tandem with the gains in regional peers with catalysts light although there were comments from President Xi who reaffirmed the China opening up message.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi said China will never leave the road of peaceful development and they will continue to expand the system which will become increasingly market-oriented. Xi added that China continues to expand opening up and its door will never close, while it is willing to discuss FTAs with additional developing countries.
- Japan’s Finance Ministry announced they are to replace its top currency diplomat Kanda with Atsushi Mimura and replace Vice Minister of Finance Chatani with Hirotsugu Shinkawa although the changes were said to be part of a normal personnel rotation, according to Nikkei and Bloomberg.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said he won’t comment on forex levels and it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Suzuki reiterated he is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and is deeply concerned about excessive, one-sided moves on forex and repeated that rapid FX moves are undesirable.
- Geely Auto (0175 HK) Q1 2024 (CNY): revenue 52.315bln vs. prev. 33.506bln, profit attributable 1.561bln vs. prev. 714mln; Q1 sales volumes +49% Y/Y.
- PBoC says it is to step up the implementation of monetary policies already in place; will keep liquidity reasonably ample. Will guide a reasonable growth of credit.Will keep CNY basically stable. Will keep prices at a reasonable level. Will resolutely prevent overshooting risks. To firmly correct pro-cyclical behavior and prevent the formation and reinforcement of one-sided expectations. Deepen supply-side reform. Remarks which saw USD/CNH drop from 7.2985 to a test of 7.2900, a figure which held. Since, the move has pared marginally back to around 7.2930.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) are mostly firmer, taking positive leads from a strong APAC session; price action in Europe has been choppy thus far. European sectors are mixed; Energy takes the spot, benefiting from the gains in the underlying crude complex. Consumer Products & Services is the clear laggard, with the likes of Puma (-2.5%) hit following poor Nike results. US Equity Futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.6%) are entirely in the green, ahead of US PCE. Nike (-12%) has sunk in the pre-market after it reported a beat on EPS, a miss on Revenue, noted that quarterly sales will fall 10% and warned on weakness in China.
Top European News
- EU leaders agree on the top EU jobs with von der Leyen given a second term as European Commission President, while Portugal’s Antonio Costa is to be the new chairman of EU summits and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas is to be EU’s top diplomat. It was separately reported that French President Macron named Thierry Breton as the French EU commissioner.
FX
- DXY is currently just shy of the 106 mark within a 105.87-106.13 range. Some desks attribute overnight strength in the USD to Trump outperforming Biden in the first tv debate. However, it is likely that ongoing upside in USD/JPY also played a role.
- USD/JPY has printed another multi-decade high at 161.27 with jawboning from Japanese officials and personnel adjustments unable to stop the rot for the currency. Officials in Japan will be hoping for a soft outturn for US PCE data today after Tokyo CPI picked up on a headline and core basis overnight. Currently flat on the session and holds around 160.70.
- EUR/USD is slightly softer and back on a 1.06 handle but within yesterday’s 1.0676-1.0726 range. Asides from the fallout from the US PCE data, attention is increasingly turning towards the weekend risk associated with the French election.
- GBP is flat vs. the USD as the final release of Q1 UK GDP unable to instigate much in the way of price action. For now, Cable is tucked within yesterday’s 1.2612-70 range.
- Antipodeans are both falling victim to the broadly firmer USD. AUD/USD a touch softer but largely in consolidation mode having not strayed from a 0.66 handle since June 17th.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1268 vs exp. 7.2727 (prev. 7.1270).
Fixed Income
- USTs came under pressure in APAC hours as the US election debate got underway. A debate which saw Biden perform particularly poorly with the odds of a Trump presidency lifting. Currently trading around 110-05 ahead of US PCE.
- Bunds were initially lower in tandem with broader weakness in Treasuries, and was fairly unreactive to French/Spanish inflation metrics thereafter. Currently lower by around 16 ticks and trading within Thursday’s 131.68-132.19 bounds.
- OATs underperform ahead of Sunday’s legislative first round election which has caused the OAT-Bund yield spread to widen to above 84bps.
- Gilt price action has been following peers, within initial underperformance on the back of the upwardly revised UK Q1 GDP figures.
Commodities
- Crude continues to climb. Upside which is a continuation of Thursday’s marked gains for the complex, which began without clear or fresh fundamental catalysts. Brent higher by just under USD 1/bbl, and sitting above USD 86/bbl.
- Spot gold is flat, in what has been a rangebound and quiet session for the complex awaiting impetus from US PCE. XAU currently sits just under USD 2330/oz, with its 50 DMA at USD 2337/oz.
- Base metals are entirely in the green benefitting from the broadly positive risk tone, though with gains capped as participants await US PCE.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “US Pentagon is moving military assets near Israel and Lebanon to be ready to evacuate Americans”, via Walla’s Elster citing NBC.
- US is to release part of suspended bomb shipment to Israel with the US and Israel discussing the release of a 500-pound bomb shipment to Israel, while the Biden administration is also reviewing another part of the shipment which includes 1,800 and 2,000-pound bombs, according to Axios.
- US official said the Pentagon is moving US military assets close to Israel and Lebanon as it prepares to evacuate Americans in Israel and Lebanon if the fighting intensifies, according to NBC.
Geopolitics: Other
- US Deputy Secretary of State Campbell raised serious concerns regarding China’s destabilising actions in the South Sea in a call with China’s Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: May PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0%, prior 0.3%
- May PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.7%
- May Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.2%
- May Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.8%
- 08:30: May Personal Income, est. 0.4%, prior 0.3%
- May Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
- May Real Personal Spending, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
- 09:45: June MNI Chicago PMI, est. 40.0, prior 35.4
- 10:00: June U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 66.0, prior 65.6
- June U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 64.0, prior 62.5
- June U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 68.0, prior 67.6
- June U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 3.2%, prior 3.3%
- June U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.1%, prior 3.1%
- 11:00: June Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior 11
Central Bank Speakers
- 06:00: Fed’s Barkin Gives Keynote Speech
- 08:40: Fed’s Daly on CNBC
- 12:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks in Moderated Q&A
- 12:40: Fed’s Daly Speaks on AI, Workforce
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
We go to press this morning just after the first US presidential debate of the election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The general consensus among pundits is that Trump had the better performance, and a CNN flash poll of registered voters watching the debate found viewers thought Trump won by a 67%-33% margin. There are just two debates scheduled in this campaign, with the second on September 10, ahead of the election on November 5. Going into the debate, the national polls were neck-and-neck, and Trump only had a 0.2pt lead in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, so it’ll be interesting to see if the debate affects that.
Staying on politics, it’s going to be an important weekend for markets ahead, as the first round of the French legislative election is taking place on Sunday. Clearly we won’t know the full results until the second round on July 7, but it will offer a better sense of the likely outcomes in terms of who can reach a majority, if anyone. As it stands, the latest Ifop poll yesterday showed Marine Le Pen’s National Rally on 36%, ahead of the left-wing alliance on 29%, and President Macron’s centrist group on 21%. In terms of seats projected in the National Assembly, that poll suggests the National Rally and its allies would end up with 220-260 seats, falling short of the 289 necessary for a majority. Alongside that, the left-wing alliance would get 180-210 seats, and President Macron’s group would be on 75-110. As a reminder, my team published a two-part guide to the French elections running through the situation and the implications for Europe (links here and here).
Ahead of Sunday’s first round vote, French assets have continued to lose ground, with the 10yr Franco-German spread closing above the 80bp mark for the first time since 2012. And in absolute terms, the 10yr French OAT was up +3.8bps to 3.26%, which is its highest level since November. That came as Germany’s finance minister Lindner said that “A strong intervention by the ECB would raise some economic and constitutional questions”. Equities also fell back, with the CAC 40 down -1.03%, meaning it’s now less than 0.4% above its low point a couple of weeks ago.
The French election is likely to be the main focus by Monday, but before we get to that, today will bring several important inflation numbers. In particular, we’ve got the US PCE inflation report for May, which is the measure that the Fed officially target, and hence is closely followed in markets. Our US economists think that core PCE should increase by +0.17%, based on the CPI and PPI data that we’ve already got. In turn, that would cut the year-on-year rate to 2.63%, the lowest in over three years. So that would be very promising news from the Fed’s perspective, but it’s clear they remain cautious given the inflation spike we had back in Q1 of this year. Indeed, that was echoed by Atlanta Fed President Bostic, who said that “It’s going to be a much longer experience and that’s why I’m preaching patience”.
US Treasuries rallied ahead of that release, as we got another batch of underwhelming data, which is increasingly becoming a theme of late. For instance, the continuing jobless claims rose to 1.839m in the week ending June 15 (vs. 1.828m expected), which is their highest level since November 2021. Alongside that, the weekly initial jobless claims over the week ending June 22 came in at 233k (vs. 235k expected). That was a bit lower than last week, but it still pushed the 4-week moving average up to 236k, which is the highest it’s been since September. That adds to several metrics suggesting that the labour market could be weakening, not least given the unemployment rate was up to 4.0% in the May jobs report. So evidence of loosening in the labour market even if there are enough one-offs in the data to give it a pass for the moment. Staying with the weaker data theme, core capital goods orders for May disappointed, falling -0.6% (vs. +0.1% expected), while a gauge of pending home sales fell to its lowest level since the start of the series in 2001. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q2 was cut to an annualised rate of +2.7% yesterday, having been at +3.0% previously. This is still decent but US data is increasingly surprising on the downside, so economic momentum still seems to be rolling over a bit, albeit from high levels.
That backdrop cemented investors’ conviction that the Fed would cut rates by the end of the year, with the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting up +2.0bps to 45bps. In turn, that meant 10yr Treasury yields fell -4.3bps to 4.29%, and the 2yr yield was also down -3.5bps to 4.71%. Over in Europe, yields were steadier for the most part, with the 10yr bund yield down just -0.3bps. However, the consistent theme was wider spreads, with yields on French OATs (+3.8bps) and Italian BTPs (+3.3bps) both seeing larger moves.
For equities, there was a similar divergence on either side of the Atlantic. In the US, that saw the S&P 500 (+0.09%) close just shy of its all-time high, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.41%) closing at a new record. Nvidia (-1.91%) underperformed again, weighed down after underwhelming projections from chipmaker Micron (-7.12%) the previous evening. Elsewhere, the small cap Russell 2000 rose +1.00%, moving back into the green for 2024 with a +0.56% YTD advance (vs. a +14.95% gain for the S&P 500). Meanwhile in Europe, the STOXX 600 (-0.43%) lost ground for a third consecutive session, with more pronounced losses among southern European countries, including the FTSE MIB (-1.06%) and the IBEX 35 (-0.72%).
Overnight in Asia, the Japanese Yen has continued to weaken, and is currently trading at 161.07 per US Dollar, which would be its highest closing level since 1986. In the meantime, equities have continued to advance, with gains for the Nikkei (+0.76%), the CSI 300 (+0.64%), the Shanghai Comp (+0.98%), the Hang Seng (+0.56%) and the KOSPI (+0.26%). In addition, the TOPIX (+0.72%) is currently on course to close at its highest level since 1990. Looking forward, US equity futures are also pointing higher, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.23%.
In other political news, Ursula von der Leyen was nominated by EU leaders for a second term as President of the European Commission. That was part of an agreement that saw former Portuguese PM Antonio Costa chosen as President of the European Council, and Estonia’s PM Kaja Kallas as the EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. However, Von der Leyen will still need to win a majority of votes in the new European Parliament, which is held by secret ballot, and in 2019 she only exceeded that by nine votes. The High Representative also needs agreement from the President-elect of the European Commission, and later on the entire Commission as a whole (including the President, High Representative and other commissioners) face a vote of consent in the European Parliament.
Finally we also saw the third estimate of US Q1 GDP just as we hit the end of Q2 for markets today. This release had a few revisions. On the bright side, the Q1 reading was revised up a tenth, and now shows growth at an annualised +1.4%. However, both headline and core PCE were revised up a tenth as well, with core PCE inflation now seen at an annualised +3.7% in Q1.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US PCE inflation reading for May, the Canadian GDP report for April, the flash CPI releases for June from France and Italy, along with German unemployment for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Barkin, Bowman and Daly, along with the ECB’s Villeroy.
US equity futures bid, USD flat and Bonds subdued post-Presidential debate; US PCE due – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 06:12 AM
- Price action in European equities has been choppy, but are ultimately mostly firmer; US futures are modestly firmer ahead of US PCE
- French assets underperform ahead of Sunday’s legislative elections; CAC 40 -0.4%, OATs -31 ticks, OAT-Bund yield spread above 84bps
- Dollar is flat after initially being boosted by JPY weakness & post-presidential debate
- Bonds are subdued following the Presidential debate which saw the odds of a Trump victory inch higher
- Crude is firmer and towards session highs, XAU is flat whilst base metals gain
- Looking ahead, US PCE, Canadian GDP, Comments from Fed’s Barkin & Bowman
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US PRESIDENTIAL DEBATE
- US President Biden said during the first presidential debate that the US economy was falling when Trump came out of the presidency and that the Trump economy rewarded the rich and raised the deficit, while he said that Trump exaggerates and lies about border security in which everything he says is a lie.
- Former President Trump said they had the greatest economy in the history of the US under his administration and had the greatest economy in the world but Biden did something disastrous by encouraging illegal immigrants, while he added that immigrants from everywhere flock to the US because of Biden and are killing US citizens. Trump also said he achieved a lot in the field of economics and that inflation is currently killing the US which became a third-world country under the Biden administration, as well as noted that tariffs will reduce deficits and check countries like China. Furthermore, Trump said there was no terror under his administration and that the world is blowing up under Biden, while he added Iran was broke and Hamas would never attack Israel under his administration, as well as claimed that he would have the war between Russia and Ukraine settled before he takes office.
- CNN poll showed about 67% of debate followers saw Trump as the winner; 81% of registered voters who watched the debate said it had no effect on their choice for President, 5% said the debate made them change their mind on whom to vote for.
- Following the debate, Politico reports that some Democrats were so concerned by Biden’s performance that they are discussing replacing him on the ticket; however, the likes of Governor Newsom said that kind of talk is “unhelpful” and “unnecessary”. Additionally, advisors acknowledged that not much is possible unless Biden steps aside.
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) are mostly firmer, taking positive leads from a strong APAC session; price action in Europe has been choppy thus far.
- European sectors are mixed; Energy takes the spot, benefiting from the gains in the underlying crude complex. Consumer Products & Services is the clear laggard, with the likes of Puma (-2.5%) hit following poor Nike results.
- US Equity Futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.6%) are entirely in the green, ahead of US PCE. Nike (-12%) has sunk in the pre-market after it reported a beat on EPS, a miss on Revenue, noted that quarterly sales will fall 10% and warned on weakness in China.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is currently just shy of the 106 mark within a 105.87-106.13 range. Some desks attribute overnight strength in the USD to Trump outperforming Biden in the first tv debate. However, it is likely that ongoing upside in USD/JPY also played a role.
- USD/JPY has printed another multi-decade high at 161.27 with jawboning from Japanese officials and personnel adjustments unable to stop the rot for the currency. Officials in Japan will be hoping for a soft outturn for US PCE data today after Tokyo CPI picked up on a headline and core basis overnight. Currently flat on the session and holds around 160.70.
- EUR/USD is slightly softer and back on a 1.06 handle but within yesterday’s 1.0676-1.0726 range. Asides from the fallout from the US PCE data, attention is increasingly turning towards the weekend risk associated with the French election.
- GBP is flat vs. the USD as the final release of Q1 UK GDP unable to instigate much in the way of price action. For now, Cable is tucked within yesterday’s 1.2612-70 range.
- Antipodeans are both falling victim to the broadly firmer USD. AUD/USD a touch softer but largely in consolidation mode having not strayed from a 0.66 handle since June 17th.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1268 vs exp. 7.2727 (prev. 7.1270).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs came under pressure in APAC hours as the US election debate got underway. A debate which saw Biden perform particularly poorly with the odds of a Trump presidency lifting. Currently trading around 110-05 ahead of US PCE.
- Bunds were initially lower in tandem with broader weakness in Treasuries, and was fairly unreactive to French/Spanish inflation metrics thereafter. Currently lower by around 16 ticks and trading within Thursday’s 131.68-132.19 bounds.
- OATs underperform ahead of Sunday’s legislative first round election which has caused the OAT-Bund yield spread to widen to above 84bps.
- Gilt price action has been following peers, within initial underperformance on the back of the upwardly revised UK Q1 GDP figures.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude continues to climb. Upside which is a continuation of Thursday’s marked gains for the complex, which began without clear or fresh fundamental catalysts. Brent higher by just under USD 1/bbl, and sitting above USD 86/bbl.
- Spot gold is flat, in what has been a rangebound and quiet session for the complex awaiting impetus from US PCE. XAU currently sits just under USD 2330/oz, with its 50 DMA at USD 2337/oz.
- Base metals are entirely in the green benefitting from the broadly positive risk tone, though with gains capped as participants await US PCE.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK GDP YY (Q1) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); GDP QQ (Q1) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Jun) 41 vs Exp. 45 (Prev. 50)
- UK Business Invest QQ (Q1) 0.5% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 1.4%); Business invest YY (Q1) -1.0% (Prev. -0.6%, Rev. 2.8%)
- German Import Prices YY (May) -0.4% vs. Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -1.7%); Import Prices MM (May) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
- Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Jun) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.3% (Prev. 3.6%); Core 3.0% (prev. 3.0%); HICP Flash YY (Jun) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.8%)
- French CPI Prelim YY NSA (Jun) 2.1% (Prev. 2.3%);CPI Prelim MM NSA (Jun) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.0%); Producer Prices YY (May) -6.7% (Prev. -6.8%); Consumer Spending MM (May) 1.5% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.8%, Rev. -0.9%); Producer Prices MM (May) -1.4% (Prev. -3.6%); CPI (EU Norm) Prelim YY (Jun) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.6%)
- German Unemployment Chg SA (Jun) 19.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 25.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Jun) 6.0% vs. Exp. 5.9% (Prev. 5.9%); Unemployment Total SA (Jun) 2.781M (Prev. 2.762M); Unemployment Total NSA (Jun) 2.727M (Prev. 2.723M)
- Italian Consumer Price Prelim YY (Jun) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.8%)
- Swedish Retail Sales YY (May) 0.8% (Prev. 0.5%); Retail Sales MM (May) 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Swiss KOF Indicator (Jun) 102.7 vs. Exp. 101.0 (Prev. 100.3, Rev. 102.2)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- EU leaders agree on the top EU jobs with von der Leyen given a second term as European Commission President, while Portugal’s Antonio Costa is to be the new chairman of EU summits and Estonia’s Kaja Kallas is to be EU’s top diplomat. It was separately reported that French President Macron named Thierry Breton as the French EU commissioner.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (May): 12-month inflation 2.8% (prev. 2.9%); 3-year ahead 2.3% (prev. 2.4%). Economic growth expectations for the next 12 months remained unchanged at -0.8%.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- “US Pentagon is moving military assets near Israel and Lebanon to be ready to evacuate Americans”, via Walla’s Elster citing NBC.
- US is to release part of suspended bomb shipment to Israel with the US and Israel discussing the release of a 500-pound bomb shipment to Israel, while the Biden administration is also reviewing another part of the shipment which includes 1,800 and 2,000-pound bombs, according to Axios.
- US official said the Pentagon is moving US military assets close to Israel and Lebanon as it prepares to evacuate Americans in Israel and Lebanon if the fighting intensifies, according to NBC.
OTHER
- US Deputy Secretary of State Campbell raised serious concerns regarding China’s destabilising actions in the South Sea in a call with China’s Executive Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is incrementally softer and holds just above USD 61k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly higher heading to month-, quarter-, and half-year end following the positive bias stateside but with gains capped as participants digest a slew of data and await the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
- ASX 200 was led higher by tech strength but with upside limited by weakness in miners and materials.
- Nikkei 225 benefitted from recent currency weakness, while there was also a slew of data releases including mostly firmer-than-expected Tokyo inflation and a return to growth in Industrial Production.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were positive in tandem with the gains in regional peers with catalysts light although there were comments from President Xi who reaffirmed the China opening up message.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese President Xi said China will never leave the road of peaceful development and they will continue to expand the system which will become increasingly market-oriented. Xi added that China continues to expand opening up and its door will never close, while it is willing to discuss FTAs with additional developing countries.
- Japan’s Finance Ministry announced they are to replace its top currency diplomat Kanda with Atsushi Mimura and replace Vice Minister of Finance Chatani with Hirotsugu Shinkawa although the changes were said to be part of a normal personnel rotation, according to Nikkei and Bloomberg.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said he won’t comment on forex levels and it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Suzuki reiterated he is closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency and is deeply concerned about excessive, one-sided moves on forex and repeated that rapid FX moves are undesirable.
- Geely Auto (0175 HK) Q1 2024 (CNY): revenue 52.315bln vs. prev. 33.506bln, profit attributable 1.561bln vs. prev. 714mln; Q1 sales volumes +49% Y/Y.
- PBoC says it is to step up the implementation of monetary policies already in place; will keep liquidity reasonably ample. Will guide a reasonable growth of credit.Will keep CNY basically stable. Will keep prices at a reasonable level. Will resolutely prevent overshooting risks. To firmly correct pro-cyclical behavior and prevent the formation and reinforcement of one-sided expectations. Deepen supply-side reform. Remarks which saw USD/CNH drop from 7.2985 to a test of 7.2900, a figure which held. Since, the move has pared marginally back to around 7.2930.
DATA RECAP
- Tokyo CPI YY (Jun) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.3% (Prev. 2.2%)
- Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jun) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 1.9%)
- Tokyo CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jun) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.7% (Prev. 1.7%)
- Japanese Industrial Production Prelim MM (May) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. -0.9%)
- Japanese Industrial Production Prelim YY (May) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. -1.8%)
- Japanese Unemployment Rate* (May) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.6%)
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
Dangerous!! in order to keep the yen from falling they need to raise interest rates to 4% and that will blow up their bond market
(zerohedge)
Japan Fires Its Top Currency Diplomat As Yen Disintegrates, Another Intervention Looms
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 11:40 PM
It is hardly a coincidence that literally minutes after the USDJPY hit 161 for the first time in almost two generations…
… that Japan’s Nikkei reported the man who had been tasked to explain away Japan’s absolutely catastrophic currency policy, one which has made the yen the worst performing currency of the world and the envy of banana republics everywhere…
congratulations, your toilet paper of a currency is now the worst performing in the world, with the lira, peso and real all stronger. And the best part is once you finally contain it, you have a bond market crash to look forward to.
·
414K Views
… i.e., Japan’s top currency “diplomat”. Masato Kanda, has been fired.
Kanda will be replaced with Atsushi Mimura, a director-general of the Finance Ministry’s international bureau, who will take over as vice finance minister for international affairs on July 31.
Incumbent Kanda has been the main figure in handling the government’s catastrophic interventions in the foreign exchange market, which have been meant to arrest the yen’s slide against the dollar, yet despite spending a record $60+ billion two months ago on halting the yen’s implosion, the yen is now at the lowest level since the Plaza Accord.
And while no amount of intervention will prevent the yen from imploding further – to do that the BOJ will have to raise rates to 4% or higher, setting of a cataclysmic collapse of the entire Japanese bond market – the outrage among the populace at the runaway inflation in Japan in large part due to the plunging currency, is finally being addressed now that Japan is facing election in a few months, and scapegoat time has arrived.
We fully expect another intervention round in the coming days, one which sends USDJPY back to the low 150s before the pair resumes it trek higher until such time as Japan finally loses control over both its currency and bond markets. That will be the beginning of the end of the current doomed experiment in neoliberalism.
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FINLAND
This will be a disaster. No proof of any jumping of bird flu from human to human
(Stieber/EpochTimes)
Finland To Start Bird Flu Vaccinations For Humans
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Finland plans to offer avian influenza vaccinations as soon as the week of June 30 to some workers with exposure to animals, health authorities said on June 25. That would make it the first country in the world to do so.
The Nordic country has bought vaccines for 10,000 people, each consisting of two injections, as part of a joint European procurement of up to 40 million doses for 15 nations from manufacturer CSL Seqirus.
“The vaccine will be offered to those aged 18 or over who are at increased risk of contracting avian influenza due to their work or other circumstances,” the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare said in a statement.
The H5N1 strain of avian influenza, or bird flu, has circulated for decades in birds but has recently jumped to other species, including cattle in the United States.
Three humans in the United States have had confirmed infections this year, while Finland has none.
However, Finnish authorities are rolling out the vaccine to try to curb the transmission of the virus.
“The conditions in Finland are very different in that we have fur farms where the animals can end up in contact with wildlife,” Dr. Hanna Nohynek, chief physician at the Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare, said.
The mostly open-air fur farms saw widespread outbreaks of bird flu among mink and foxes, leading to the culling of about 485,000 animals in 2023 to cut down on transmission risk.
Vaccinations are likely to start as early as next week, according to a spokesperson for the institute. People deemed at risk, including workers at the fur farms and lab technicians who handle bird flu samples, are eligible for the shots.
If any human infections are confirmed, people in close contact with the patients would also be offered the vaccine.
US Orders Vaccines
The U.S. government has ordered nearly 5 million doses of the influenza vaccine made by CSL, and manufacturing is slated to be completed by the end of the summer.
However, the U.S. government has no concrete plans yet to start vaccinating farm workers or others.
Dawn O’Connell, the assistant secretary for preparedness and response at the U.S. Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), said in May that government officials were “looking closely” at moving forward with vaccinations. Still, the government has made no formal announcements on the front since then.
Robert Johnson, director of ASPR’s medical countermeasures program, was asked during a call with reporters on June 25 about Finland’s choice to start vaccinating some people. He said that ASPR and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are in agreement that H5N1 is currently a low public health risk.
“Further sort of deliberations or decisions around vaccine really will require further conversations around the U.S. government,” Dr. Demetre Daskalakis, a CDC official, told reporters.
In a strategy document released on June 25 aimed at a pandemic caused by influenza, U.S. officials said that vaccines “could be deployed before an outbreak begins and provide immune responses to a broad range of influenza viruses [and] could enable the population to have some level of protection against H5Nx viruses prior to a pandemic.”
Officials are backing the testing of multiple experimental vaccines against influenza, including two self-amplifying RNA vaccines targeting H5N1.
Pfizer and Moderna are also in talks with U.S. officials about messenger RNA vaccines against H5N1, after developing two widely used COVID-19 vaccines.
Although three farm workers in the United States have tested positive for H5N1 recently, officials have stressed that the illnesses are believed to have come from cows and that there are no signs as of yet of person-to-person transmission.
Reuters contributed to this report.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
Three Israeli experts discuss the potential war with Hezbollah and possible outcomes
(Jerusalem Post)
A look into Lebanon: Three Israeli experts discuss a potential war with Hezbollah – interview
Vice Rector of Tel Aviv University, the Founder of Bar Ilan’s Program on Conflict Management and Negotiation, and a Researcher at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security speak to ‘The Post’
By OHAD MERLINJUNE 27, 2024 18:11Updated: JUNE 27, 2024 18:16
There is significant ongoing discourse from both Israeli and Lebanese officials regarding the prospects of a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah, and the warnings of governments across several countries telling their citizens to refrain from visiting Lebanon out of fear of an imminent war.
The Jerusalem Post reached out to three Israeli experts to learn about their differing views regarding the question of the inevitability of a war, the expected course of such a confrontation, the wanted results and the geopolitical outcomes of a confrontation – or a lack thereof.
Professor Eyal Zisser: “IDF is prepared and ready in case a diplomatic approach fails.”
The current situation with which Israel and Hezbollah have been coping for the past eight months grew to become a status quo to which both sides tolerate on some level, despite it being a bad situation. This is because both sides understand that the alternative would be destructive war that will not fundamentally change the situation and will hardly yield any achievements.
Prime Minister Netanyahu also said something along these lines when he referred to MK Gantz’s ultimatum calling for the Israeli government to set the beginning of September as a deadline to bring residents of the north back to their homes, adding that there should be no rush and no deadlines.
A second option is that of a diplomatic agreement. The problem here is the interdependence that Hezbollah has drawn with the situation in Gaza as a condition for halting its paramilitary activity; but nothing is going to change in the foreseeable future from the Israeli perspective in Gaza. Nasrallah will also find it difficult to comply with the Israeli demand to withdraw his forces beyond the Litani. He may be able to do so, though without announcing it openly. For these reasons, a political agreement seems implausible.
If these two options are exhausted, the question would then become political: how much political pressure would be applied on the Israeli government in order to push Israel to act in Lebanon. I don’t see a strategic consideration in going to an all-out war. In any case it is difficult to say what decision makers will opt for, and what the outcome of the war will be.
It should be noted that it is not necessarily an ‘all or nothing’ situation, either an all-out war or peace. Israel can decide to opt for a limited operation with limited goals in Southern Lebanon, which wouldn’t necessarily entail dragging the entire region into an all-out war. As lovers of “equations,” Hezbollah would probably tolerate not attacking the Israeli center should Israel refrain from attacking Beirut, though surely things can escalate.
In terms of the desired achievements, for Israel it would be centered around achieving military goals: Israel would like to strike Hezbollah’s top brass, as always, and paralyze its capabilities; but without a ground intrusion this will not happen. If Israel does decide to go all the way, Israel could indeed demand more.
From their point of view, Hezbollah will want tactical surprises and symbolic photo-ops: infiltrating communities with soldiers, successfully shooting down planes, and hitting symbolic landmarks.
As for their capabilities, Hezbollah appears to have the ability to shoot down planes, but these are limited to geographical location. Additionally, they can probably strike anywhere in the State of Israel with precision, but not on an unlimited scale, as not all their missiles are like that. Additionally, when missiles are fired, they also reveal the location of the launcher, so the air force can strike the location directly following the launch.
In terms of the geopolitical aspects, Iran has proven that it is embedded in Yemen and Iraq and Lebanon, and this is a challenging reality which will continue whether a war ensues or not. Some militias in Syria may join some of the efforts, but not in a substantial way.
On the home front, Hezbollah faces much internal pressure from civilians not affiliated with the Shi’i group, which is very helpful because it makes Hezbollah more cautious and restrained; however, this pressure will not be enough to bring the terror group to give up or avoid a confrontation altogether.
In case of a war, the main question will come down to who will be opening it and who will surprise whom. However, there is a tendency in Israel to exaggerate its dangers. Yes, we will suffer some blows, but the IDF is prepared and ready and won’t be surprised any more. We must hope for the best, not become paralyzed, and not panic.
Professor Gerald Steinberg: ‘Key to deterrence lies in convincing Iran that their survival lies with ending Hezbollah’s attacks’
Hezbollah is the central Iranian proxy in the regime’s ongoing war against Israel. Therefore, in order to deter, or if necessary, defeat this powerful Lebanon-based military force, Israel will need to directly confront Tehran and threaten its vital interests and survival.
Throughout human history, credible deterrence has been the essential element in military conflict, but in confining threats of unacceptable destruction to Beirut, which for Iran is expendable, Israel’s security leadership has missed the target. This needs to change.
Because Iran perceives Israel to be vulnerable and unwilling to act forcefully, the threat of unacceptable damage to Iranian interests is essential – for example, by highlighting key oil industry targets, particularly given Hezbollah’s threats to attack Haifa and other Israeli strategic targets. Destruction of Iran’s very vulnerable oil industry would trigger a serious crisis. The economy has been sputtering for years, causing unemployment and feeding popular unrest, and would become far worse if oil exports were to stop for a long period. And there are additional and vulnerable strategic targets, as hinted in Israel’s very limited response to the Iranian missile assault of April 14.
On the other hand, to prevent the full-scale regional conflict and worldwide energy crisis that the Biden Administration clearly wants to avoid, the US with some European governments (Germany and Italy, for example) also need to shift Amos Hochstein’s diplomatic efforts from Beirut to Tehran. While by no means an easy task, the key to deterrence is convincing Iran’s leaders that their survival depends on ending Hezbollah’s attacks and finding a formula to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1701 (2006) by pulling back behind the Litani river.
The alternative – a direct military confrontation limited to Lebanon and Hezbollah’s massive arsenal of missiles, drones, and short-range weapons, is likely to do unacceptable damage to Israel, and leave the Iranian threat intact, including near-operational first-generation nuclear weapons. This is an unacceptable scenario, and requires an immediate and credible strategic shift.
Dr. Omer Dostri: ‘Israel must militarily defeat Hezbollah’
A political settlement with Lebanon is not in sight, despite many international efforts led by the United States. It seems that a war between Israel and Lebanon is not a matter of if, but when.
The idea of Hezbollah withdrawing beyond the Litani is based on an outdated and dangerous concept dating back to the reality of before October 7th. Hezbollah’s withdrawal beyond the Litani will not lead to a change in reality, certainly not in the long term.
In such a case, Hezbollah could quickly return to the south, and it is likely that Israel will not react to this due to its reluctance to go to war, as has happened in recent decades. Moreover, there is a significant reason to assume that the international forces will not be able to force Hezbollah to withdraw to the north, either in the implementation of the new agreement, or after Hezbollah returns to the region for a short period of time after its apparent retreat to the north.
Even if we assume that Hezbollah will eventually signal a proactive retreat beyond the Litani River, this step may increase the sense of security of the Israeli population adjacent to the border, which will pave its way back to the settlements. However, it is important to emphasize that Hezbollah’s threat to Israel does not end only with the penetration of the border and the takeover of communities adjacent to the fence. Rather Hezbollah is a threat to the entire State of Israel, so it would be a mistake to examine the issue in the north only from the angle of the border communities in the north.
For this reason, Israel will also not be able to settle for a new resolution in the UN Security Council (certainly not on the basis of the previous resolution 1701) that will not provide security for the state as a whole, as has been proven in recent decades. The security of the State of Israel cannot be based on foreign forces, certainly not ‘peacekeeping’ forces that have almost no authority and no ability to face the threat of Hezbollah, and the strengthening of the terrorist organization.
Israel will have to militarily defeat Hezbollah. There won’t be another chance for that.
Moreover, the exercise of Israel’s military power cannot be done in the framework of a “deterrence operation” in the style of the Second Lebanon War, but it must be done in the framework of a broad and comprehensive war through an invasion and land maneuver deep into Lebanon. Therefore, the Israeli government is required to prepare the Israeli public for a broad war in Lebanon that will destroy the Hezbollah organization, including the occupation of all of southern Lebanon, and the destruction of Beirut and other major cities in Lebanon.
At the same time, a war with Hezbollah would be a very significant event for the Israeli home front, as it has not yet experienced.
Hezbollah has at its disposal over 150,000 missiles and rockets, thousands of long-range missiles, hundreds of precision missiles, a large inventory of anti-tank missiles, fleets of drones, good anti-aircraft capabilities, and more. The greatest threat to the home front, the possibility of an invasion by special forces, was apparently thwarted and stopped with the rapid and efficient deployment of IDF forces along the border, and the ongoing attacks against Hezbollah forces and infrastructure near the border.
In the geopolitical aspect, Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon carries with it the possibility of escalating into a regional war that could also involve Iran, and consequently the United States as well. Therefore, the Biden administration, which is interested in restoring regional stability as soon as possible (especially in light of the presidential elections of the United States this coming November), is exerting its full weight on Israel in order to prevent a war with Lebanon.
Also, it is likely that in the war with Hezbollah, the Shia militias in Iraq and Syria will also join, as well as the Houthis from Yemen. In such a situation, Syria will likely not be immune from extensive Israeli attacks.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
According to Netanyahu the Iranian axis is on the march to conquer the middle east. Lebanon is now on high alert
(Jerusalem Post)
Netanyahu: Iranian axis ‘on the march to conquer the Middle East,’ Lebanon on high alert
Tehran “is fighting us on a seven-front war: obviously, Hamas, Hezbollah as well as the Houthis, the militias in Iraq and Syria, the West Bank, and Iran itself,” says Netanyahu.
By TOVAH LAZAROFF, HANNAH SARISOHNJUNE 27, 2024 21:52Updated: JUNE 27, 2024 22:56
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Iran sought to conquer the Middle East as the number of countries urging its citizens to leave Lebanon grew, amid heightened concern that the IDF-Hezbollah cross-border war would widen.
Tehran “is fighting us on a seven-front war: obviously, Hamas, Hezbollah as well as the Houthis, the militias in Iraq and Syria, the West Bank, and Iran itself,” he said.
“They’d like to topple Jordan. Their goal is to have a combined ground offensive from various fronts, coupled with a combined missile bombardment,” he explained.
The Iranian axis is “on the march to conquer the Middle East” including “Saudi Arabia,” Netanyahu said.
He spoke as the intense phase of the fighting in Rafah and Gaza in general is expected to wind down and all eyes have turned to the North, where it is feared that the IDF-Hezbollah war would expand into a Third Lebanon war.
Politico reported that a large-scale confrontation between the IDF and Hezbollah could break out if a ceasefire and hostage deal was not reached between Israel and Hamas.
Canada, the Netherlands, and Germany have all advised their citizens to leave the country.
The US embassy in Lebanon issued a reminder on Thursday for citizens to “strongly reconsider travel to Lebanon.
At any moment
“The security environment remains complex and can change quickly,” the security alert said.
The alert added that US citizens in Lebanon should not travel to southern Lebanon, the Lebanon-Syria border area, or refugee settlements.
“Reconsider travel to Lebanon due to crime, terrorism, civil unrest, kidnapping, unexploded land-mines, and armed conflict,” a US State Department travel advisory reads.
The UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office said as well it advises against all travel to Lebanon.“Travel within or out of Lebanon is at your own risk,” FCDO’s alert said.
France armed its citizens in April against traveling to Lebanon – as well as Iran, Israel, and the Palestinian territories – due to Iran’s threats against its regional adversaries.
France said on Thursday that it was “extremely concerned about the serious situation in Lebanon at a time when violence on the border with Israel is dramatically increasing.
“We call on all parties to show the utmost restraint and to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. France remains fully committed to preventing any risk of escalation, and promoting a diplomatic solution,” it said.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant raised the issue of Hezbollah and the possibility of war during his visit to the United States this week, where he met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
ISRAEL/IRAN/SAUDI ARABIA/JORDAN
Netanyahu Tells US Delegation Iran Seeks To Topple Saudi Arabia, Jordan
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Thursday claimed in words given to a visiting US delegation that Iran is seeking to conquer the broader Middle East which includes plans to topple the regimes of Jordan and Saudi Arabia.
The delegation included US generals and admirals on a visit to Jerusalem. Netanyahu in raising the alarm of the Islamic Republic’s alleged ambitions went so far as to reference an ongoing “seven-front” conflict, of which Tehran is the puppet master. This is Israel is poised to launch a potential offensive against Hezbollah in south Lebanon.
“Their goal is to have a combined ground offensive from various fronts, coupled with a combined missile bombardment. We’ve been given an opportunity to scuttle it,” Netanyahu said. “The first requirement is to cut that hand, Hamas.”
“The people who did this thing to us are not going to be there,” he vowed in reference to the Oct.7 terror attack which kicked off the Gaza war. “We face a long battle — I don’t think it’s that long — but we’ll get rid of them.”
He then emphasized the broader Israeli security goal to “deter the other elements of the Iran terror axis” – which is widely seen as including Baghdad, Damascus, and Hezbollah. But in these new remarks he took it a big step further:
“But we have to deal with the axis,” he said, arguing that the Iran-backed alliance is “on a march to conquer the Middle East… to conquer Saudi Arabia, conquer the Arabian peninsula.”
“It’s just a question of time,” he added. “What’s standing in the way?” he asked. “The ‘small Satans’ — that’s us,” he added, referencing Iran’s disparaging nickname for Israel.
But this assessment seems far from the reality, given that over a year ago Iran entered a Beijing-brokered peace and normalization deal with Saudi Arabia.
Following the March 10, 2023 signing of the deal, ambassadors were exchanged, and Saudi Arabia opened its embassy in Tehran for the first time in seven years.
However, historic tensions remain, given the long history of the Sunni vs. Shia rivalry in the region. While Saudi Arabia is the global center of hardline Sunni wahhabism, Iran is a Shia theocracy.
The ten-year long Syria war can be seen as part of this broader rivalry, given President Bashar al-Assad is aligned with the ‘Shia axis’ – despite himself being a quasi-secular Baathist leader, and the Sunni Gulf states had partnered with the West in arming jihadists insurgents.
In his Thursday night debate with President Joe Biden, Trump vowed to get tougher on Tehran and accused Biden’s weakness of emboldening the Iranians. “Iran was broke. Anybody that did business with Iran, including China, they couldn’t do business with the United States. They all passed,” Trump said of his time in office and the ‘maximum pressure’ campaign. “Iran was broke. They had no money for Hamas, Hezbollah, for terror. No money whatsoever.”
end
.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/
Russia Pummels Ukrainian Airfields Set To House Western-Supplied F16 Jets
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Widespread international media reports previously indicated that the first deliveries of US-made F-16 jets to Ukraine from European partners would begin at some point this summer. The hold-up has been in large part due to the significant time it takes for Ukrainian pilots to be properly trained on the advanced aircraft, given they are used to Soviet era planes such as the Soviet MiG-29, and they are about to be thrust into aerial combat in new equipment.
Russia is not waiting around for the NATO planes to arrive, but is apparently taking preemptive action, with the defense ministry (MoD) announcing Thursday its forces have struck airbases in Ukraine which were set up to house Western-supplied jets.
The MoD said it used long-range sea-based weapons to attack “airfield infrastructure of Ukraine, planned to accommodate aircraft from Western countries,” according to state media. This included the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles alongside drones, the statement indicated.
“The goal of the strike has been achieved. All designated targets have been hit,” the MoD added without specifying the number of locations hit.
Back in March, President Vladimir Putin said during an address to pilots, “We will destroy their warplanes just as we destroy their tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment, including multiple rocket launchers.”
Putin at the time also warned against jets using NATO airfields from which to operate in Ukraine. He said, “Of course, if they are used from airfields of third countries, they become a legitimate target for us, wherever they are located.”
Interestingly, Western media has already bluntly admitted the following: “But US officials have privately said the jets will not be a game changer when they eventually arrive after months of training, given the strength of the Russian air force and its defense systems.”
So essentially, aircraft worth multiple tens of millions of dollars each are being primed to get shot down in what will likely prove a major humiliation for the West.
Update: Russia has destroyed every Ukrainian airfield and air base capable of hosting NATO jet fighters. NATO said they will operate their ‘Ukrainian’ deployed fighter jets out of Poland and Romania. None will be stationed or flying off of a Ukrainian base!!
·
238.6K Views
https://twitter.com/CaptCoronado/status/180634879579956470
And already, before the jets arrive in Ukraine, Moscow is priming the battle space, ready to target these F-16s and and the ground infrastructure supporting them. The Kremlin has recently highlighted that the F-16 is technically capable of carrying tactical nuclear weapons, and so will treat them according to the threat level.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
.
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Biden’s Presidency is OVER! They are discussing now how to set up the ‘step out’ gracefully. Biden INC. has devastated USA (inflation, rapes, murders, illegals, WW III etc.) but more important, IF
he beats 45, he is aging bad, he had ONE week to prepare & this is performance? he would decline rapidly in 2nd term, DEVASTATING for USA, this is the issue, he is incapable of leading USA now & then
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 28 |
That is how you game this out…he is not a healthy 81 year old, and he would be 85 to 86 in 2nd term, he is declining in front of our eyes, he should be relaxed in his retirement house with his family, hopefully attending some courthouses with Garland et al. and all who broke laws…it must be tested out in courts…but lets think rationally, he will deteriorate…look, by the 2nd debate, 2 months from now, Biden will be in worse shape. If they amp him up with drugs, they could stop his heart and kill him on stage, poor soul….so this shit must end…he is done, finished…he is like Mike Tyson, does not know when to stop even for all the money in the world, Tyson could die in the ring. You got to know when it is over, and the fat lady is singing. Do not want to go out on a stretcher. Biden’s team cannot hear the fat lady screaming?
Stop…
END
EVOL NEWS
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Russia Warns Biden Admin Planning False Flag Pandemic before ElectionRussia’s Ministry of Defense has issued a chilling warning that Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration is planning to launch a false flag attack in the United States before the November election that involves unleashing deadly bioweapons to create a new pandemic.READ MORE |
| WEF Calls for Restrictions on Public Washing ClothesThe unelected World Economic Forum (WEF) is calling on governments of “sovereign” nations to enforce restrictions on how frequently members of the general public can wash their clothes.READ MORE |
| Judge Rules Law Defining Sex as ‘Male’ or ‘Female’ Is ‘Unconstitutional’A radical judge has ruled that a Montana law defining sex as either “male” or “female” is a violation of the United States Constitution.READ MORE |
| Whoopi Goldberg Spits after Saying Trump’s Name on ‘The View,’ Audience Goes WildThe audience of “The View” appeared delighted when co-host Whoopi Goldberg spat on the ground after saying President Donald Trump’s name.READ MORE |
| Top Female Bodybuilding Champion Dies Suddenly of Blood Clot at 36Brazilian female bodybuilding champion Cintia Goldani has tragically died suddenly after suffering an unexpected blood clot.READ MORE |
| Jack Smith’s Team Reprimanded by Judge Cannon: ‘I Don’t Appreciate Your Tone’Special Counsel Jack Smith’s team has continued to clash with the judge overseeing President Donald Trump’s classified documents case in Florida.READ MORE |
| Pelosi Smears Supreme Court as ‘Rogue’ on Dobbs AnniversaryFormer House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has marked the second anniversary of the pivotal Dobbs v. Jackson ruling by smearing the United States Supreme Court as “rogue.”READ MORE |
| Biden Pardons Military Veterans Convicted of SodomyDemocrat President Joe Biden has issued a pardon to thousands of military veterans convicted under a since-repealed ban on sodomy.READ MORE |
| Lego Launches Drag Queen Figures to Promote Pride to ChildrenDanish toymaker Lego has just launched a range of mini figures dressed as drag queens to promote “gender identities” to children as part of the company’s Pride celebrations.READ MORE |
| Denmark to Punish Farmers for Cow ‘Emissions’ to ‘Fight Global Warming’The Danish government has introduced radical new laws that will tax livestock farmers for “emissions” from cows, pigs, and sheep to supposedly “fight global warming.”READ MORE |
| Biden Officials Push for Age Limit for Child Gender Surgeries to Be ReducedOfficials in Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration are pushing for the age limit to be reduced for children to undergo life-altering gender surgeries.READ MORE |
| House Republicans Warn AG Garland May Be Arrested over Biden TapesRep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) has warned that Democrat President Joe Biden’s Attorney General Merrick Garland could be arrested for refusing to comply with a congressional subpoena.READ MORE |
| DNC Emails Scrubbed from WikiLeaks as Julian Assange Returns HomeAll documents and emails leaked from the Democratic National Committee (DNC) have now been scrubbed from the WikiLeaks database amid founder Julian Assange’s historic release.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| Covid Vaxxed 200 Times More Likely to Die from Brain ClotsA disturbing new study has revealed that those injected with Covid mRNA shots are 200 times more likely to die from a blood clot in the brain, official government data confirms.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Mitch McConnell Describes Biden as a ‘Good Guy’ Before Presidential DebateSenate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) referred to President Joe Biden as a “good guy,” contrasting with former President Donald Trump’s characterization of him as “Crooked Joe.” During a live event in Louisville on Tuesday, McConnell stated he likes Biden “personally” but disagrees with Biden’s policies, according to the Hill. McConnell went on to criticize Biden for signing “up with …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Nancy Pelosi Ahead of First Presidential Debate: ‘Biden Is Reducing Inflation’On Wednesday, during an interview on MSNBC’s “All In,” former Speaker of the House Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) stated that President Joe Biden was “reducing” inflation in the United States. According to the California Democrat, Biden has not only taken proactive steps on the U.S. economy but also implemented measures to address climate change globally. “So then you look at …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Tennessee Police Chief Indicted for Falsifying Official Election DocumentsAfter resigning from her position, former Chattanooga Police Chief Celeste Murphy was indicted on 17 felony and misdemeanor charges. Murphy has been charged with six counts of official misconduct, three counts of forgery, three counts of perjury, three counts of falsifying governmental records, one count of falsifying official registration or election documents, and one count of illegal voter registration. Since …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Former National Intelligence Director James Clapper: ‘I Have No Regrets for Signing Letter Dismissing Hunter Biden Laptop’Last year, former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper informed the House Judiciary Committee that he did not regret signing the infamous 2020 letter, along with 51 other former intelligence officials, implying that the Hunter Biden laptop was fake. Clapper and former CIA Director John Brennan were among the leading figures who signed the letter. They also played significant roles …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
Russia Appears To Be Amassing A Dark Fleet To Ship LNG
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 07:40 PM
By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com
Russia appears to have started to amass a dark fleet of tankers to ship its LNG in vessel ownership transfers similar to the moves that Moscow began after the invasion of Ukraine to create a shadow fleet to export oil and products in the face of Western sanctions.
Russia has already amassed a large shadow fleet of oil tankers, and it’s now working on a similar plan for LNG to circumvent current and future sanctions on its LNG, according to data from shipping database providers cited by Bloomberg.
The analysis by Bloomberg has found that little-known shipping firms operating from Dubai’s free trade zone have assumed ownership of at least eight vessels in the past three months, per data from shipping database Equasis. Of these, four ice-class LNG carriers have already received approval from Russia’s authorities to pass through the Arctic route in Russia this summer. Moscow also appears to have issued a record number of permits for this route, the Northern Sea route. Some of the tankers with new ownership don’t have listed insurers—another sign of a vessel now part of a “dark fleet.”.
“There are several indications pointing to efforts by Russia to create a dark fleet for LNG,” Malte Humpert, founder of the Washington D.C.-based think tank Arctic Institute, told Bloomberg.
The transfer of ownership of vessels to little-known entities in little transparent jurisdictions outside Russia bears a striking resemblance to the Russian moves from two years ago when Moscow started amassing the dark fleet for its oil, Bloomberg notes.
Russia has been seeking a larger share of the global LNG market, but U.S. sanctions have delayed the start-up of the Arctic LNG 2 project, while the EU just this week banned new investments, as well as the provision of goods, technology, and services for the completion of LNG projects under construction, such as Arctic LNG 2 and Murmansk LNG.
The EU is also banning transshipment operations of Russian LNG to third countries in EU territory after a transition period of 9 months. This first EU move against Russia’s LNG could speed up the creation of a shadow Russian LNG fleet.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BOLIVIA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0709 UP .0001
USA/ YEN 160.57 DOWN 0.132 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2652 UP .0008
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3693 DOWN .0006 (CDN DOLLAR UP 6 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 21.55 PTS OR 0.73%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 2.14 PTS OR 0.01%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.14%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN EXCEPT FRANCE
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 2.14 PTS OR 0.01 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 21.55 PTS OR 0.73%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.14%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 241.54 PTS OR 0.61%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2333.00
silver:$29.33
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.53 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.239% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.034% DOWN1 AND 3/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.422 UP 3 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.072 UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4820 UP 4 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0718 UP 0.0011 OR 11 basis points
USA/Japan: 160.78 UP 0.090 OR YEN IS DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.206 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0013 OR 13 BASIS pts to 1.3686
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.263 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.3013)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.78 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.034…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.323% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.480 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.695 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2326..00
SILVER AT 11;30: 29.24
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 15.56 PTS OR 0.19%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 24.90 PTS OR 0.14%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 51.32 PTS OR 0.68 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 7.80 OR 0.07%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 32.84 PTS OR 0.10% PTS
WTI Oil price 81.38 12EST/
Brent Oil: 84.87 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 86.24 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 24/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4820 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2060 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0706 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2632 DOWN 0.0012 OR 12 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2125 UP 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.034%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 160.84 UP 0.135 YEN DOWN 14 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3694 DOWN 0006 //CDN dollar UP 6 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 81.39
Brent OIL: 84.78
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 4.354
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 4.514%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.725
USA dollar index: 105.58 UP 1 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.73 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.75 DOWN 0 AND 75/100 roubles
GOLD 2,323.15 3:30 PM
SILVER: 289.07 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 41.12 PTS OR 0.10%
NASDAQ DOWN 106.16 PTS OR 0.54 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.42 UP 0.18 PTS OR 1.87%
GLD: $215/01 UP 0.02 OR 0.0%
SLV/ $26.57 UP 0.12 OR 0.45%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
S&P Surges To Best Election Year H1 Since 1976 As Rate-Cut Hopes & Macro Data Collapse
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 04:00 PM
First things first, the market is starting to aggressively price in a Republican/Trump victory in November after last night’s farce
Goldman’s ‘Republican / Democrat’ stock baskets massively outperformed today…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall activity levels today were “explosive” according to Goldman’s trading desk with volumes +32% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up just +1% vs. the 10dma (mkt wide activity obv backloaded today)
Goldman said its floor is -3% better for sale, with both HFs and LOs tilted that way
- HFs are -2% better for sale with supply in Tech & Fins outweighing demand for Cons Disc & materials
- LOs are -14% better for sale with Cons Disc the outlier for supply following NKE’s miss. Other pockets of supply include Staples, HCare & Industrials while Tech, Energy, Fins and REITs are all to buy
But away from politics (and today), US Macro data serially disappointed in the first half of the year, crashing to its ugliest since 2016. This was the worst start to a year for macro surprises since 2018 (and second worst since 2012)…
Source: Bloomberg
But, despite all this ‘bad news’, rate-cut expectations have plunged YTD, with 2024 starting the year with 160bps priced in and ending H1 with just 45bps priced in. 2025 expectations did pick up modestly, from around 70bps to 87bps…
Source: Bloomberg
The result of all that: stocks, gold, and crude (and crypto) all notably higher, bonds dumped and the dollar stronger in H1
Source: Bloomberg
Year-to-date, it has been all mega-cap tech all the time, dragging the S&P and Nasdaq up dramatically (decoupling from The Dow and Small Caps with Trannies in the red in H1)…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P’s 15% gain is the best H1 in an election year since 1976, and was set against a very low volatility means Sharpes are through the roof.
June was extremely quiet with long gamma squelching all directional moves…
Source: Bloomberg
With realized vol for the month plunging to just 6.3…
Source: Bloomberg
Tech stocks soared in H1 with financials and energy just behind. Real Estate was clubbed like a baby seal (which is no surprise given that home sales are plunging back to or near record lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
H1 and Q2 and June were all about AI stocks, which have massively outperformed…
Source: Bloomberg
The other massive winner was GLP-1 stocks…
Source: Bloomberg
Yields were up notably in H1 2024 (10Y +47bps), following a very similar path to 2018 and 2021, with only 2022 worse since 2009. What is also notable is just how uniform the rise in yields has been – the entire curve up around 46-50bps – as Q2 saw bonds bid as macro data disappointed…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar surged to its second strongest H1 since 2013, with a big surge in June as yen collapsed…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin had its 5th best start to a year on record (2016, 2017, 2019, 2022, 2023 were better) ending H1 up 40%. Solana and Ethereum also had a great start to the year…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged in H1, up over 13%, its second best year since 2016 (only 2020 was better). But the last six weeks have seen the precious metal coiling…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil also had a strong H1 thanks to a rebound in geopolitical risk premium in June…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, after such a strong H1, several bulge bracket bank traders are starting to sound a little nervous. Who can blame them?
Source: Bloomberg
Which happens first, 10Y yield hits 3.5% or S&P 500 hits 5,000?
…or 3,500?
Source: Bloomberg
How far would stocks have to fall before the liquidity machines ramp back up
MORNING TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Supercore inflation rises for the 49th straight month but spending disappoints
(zerohedge)
‘SuperCore’ Inflation Rises For 49th Straight Month As Spending Disappoints
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 08:44 AM
The last month has seen US Macro data collapsing at its fastest rate in years…
Source: Bloomberg
…which, many believe, will also drag down inflation (and it has been)…
Source: Bloomberg
Today, we get to see The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator – Core PCE – which rose 0.1% MoM in May (after a revised +0.3% MoM for April) and in line with expectations. The headline PCE Price Index was unchanged MoM as expected as Durable Goods deflation trumped surging Services costs…
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, both headline and core PCE declined…
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, Durable Goods deflation is at its strongest in at least a decade…
Source: Bloomberg
More notably, the so-called SuperCore PCE rose 0.1% MoM, which saw YoY slow to 3.39%… which is awkwardly stagnant at elevated levels…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the 49th straight monthly rise in SuperCore prices with Healthcare costs soaring…
Source: Bloomberg
On a MoM basis, Income grew more than expected (+0.5% vs +0.2% exp) while spending rose less than expected (+0.2% MoM vs +0.3% exp)
Source: Bloomberg
Which accelerated both income and spending on a YoY basis (with the latter outpacing the former, of course)…
Source: Bloomberg
With wage pressures rising once again…
- Government 8.5%, up from 8.4% but below the record high of 8.9%
- Private 4.5% up from 4.2%
Source: Bloomberg
And after a series of revisions, the savings rate ticked up to 3.9% of DPI (from 3.7%) – the highest since January…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which takes place against a background of the sixth straight month of rising government handouts (well it is an election year after all)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, while acyclical inflationary pressures continue to drift lower, cyclical inflationary pressures remain extremely elevated…
Source: Bloomberg
A very mixed bag but nothing screams ‘automatic’ rate-cuts… and SuperCore refuses to budge.
end
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
A franchisee with 25 stores under their belt has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. This is the second time, this group has filed, the first being in 2010.
(zerohedge)
Arby’s Franchisee Files For Chapter 11 Bankruptcy
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 07:20 PM
By Julie LIttman of RestaurantDive
- Miracle Restaurant Group, a 25-unit Arby’s franchisee, declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy on June 20, according to court filings.
- The company, which has been an Arby’s operator since 2005, has restaurants in Illinois, Indiana, Texas, Mississippi and Louisiana, Donald Moore, manager and member of Miracle Restaurant Group, said in a court filing.
- In addition to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the operator cited inflationary pressures, negative same-store sales, an inability to sell underperforming locations and the failure of the IRS to timely refund over $3 million to the company as part of Employee Retention Tax Credits as reasons for filing for bankruptcy protections, Moore said.
This isn’t the first time the chain has filed for Chapter 11. In 2010, the company operated over 60 stores, but filed for bankruptcy protection under Chapter 11, leading to closures of a number of stores. Creditors were paid in full under its restructuring plan, Moore said in the court filing.
Economic conditions appear to be more dynamic this time around for the operator. Negative same-store sales compressed profit margins that have not helped cover fixed costs. Price increases also couldn’t adequately compensate for a rise in labor and commodity expenses, resulting in an erosion of its cash position, Moore said.
Restaurants developed over the last three years also have had disappointing store sales.
“The negative same store sales and lower than anticipated sales from newer stores have resulted in certain stores that operate at extremely low or (at times) negative cash flow on a weekly and monthly basis,” Moore said.
To help offset its declining financial situation, the operator approached its landlords and Arby’s for relief, but the responses were not enough to keep the franchisee from bankruptcy, Moore said.
Miracle also tried to sell some of its Texas and Chicago-land area locations, but has not been able to secure offers. Moore said overall declines in Arby’s systemwide same-store sales and low sales to fixed cost ratios of certain Miracle restaurants contributed to the bankruptcy. Last September, it sold three stores in Indiana and used those proceeds to pay down debt.
As part of its bankruptcy filing, the operator plans to sell seven Texas stores, eight Illinois stores and two Indiana stores and to focus on operating its Louisiana and Mississippi stores leaving it with eight remaining locations, Moore said. Miracle has retained Peak Franchise Capital to advise in marketing the sale of these restaurants.
The company said it has 200 to 999 estimated number of creditors, $1 million to $10 million in assets and $1 million to $10 million in liabilities in a court filing.
Bankruptcies have been on the rise among QSR franchisees. Since the start of 2023, franchisees of Burger King, CKE, McDonald’s, Popeyes, Subway and Wendy’s have sought bankruptcy protection. Operators have been under increased financial pressure due to rising labor and food costs, difficulty raising capital to fund expansions or remodels to help drive sales and falling consumer traffic, among other factors.
end
Nike shares crash!
(zerohedge)
Nike Shares Crash Near COVID Lows After Warning Sales Slump Is Worsening
THURSDAY, JUN 27, 2024 – 06:40 PM
Nike shares are down over 11% after-hours following an ugly earnings picture that saw Q4 revenues disappoint and more notably, a sizable cut in guidance for the first half of this fiscal year.
Building on a slew of reports that suggest pain is finally hitting the consumer’s wallet, Nike’s revenue for Q4 fell 1.7% YoY to $12.61 billion (notably below the $12.86 billion consensus estimate).
- Direct Revenue (via the company’s website, app and stores) $5.1 billion, -7.3% y/y, well below the estimate of $5.68 billion
- Wholesale revenue $7.1 billion, +6% y/y, estimate $6.6 billion
Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Poonam Goyal said the underperformance at Nike’s own sales channels “comes by surprise and is a reason for concern, as the activewear giant could be turning its core shoppers away due to lack of newness.”
She added that the performance in wholesale, which beat estimates, is a “positive indicator for its revived and existing wholesale relationships.”
Geographically, Asia was steady while European revenues fell. North America saw the biggest disappointment to expectations:
- North America revenue $5.28 billion, -1.4% y/y, weaker than the estimated $5.44 billion
- EMEA revenue $3.29 billion, -1.7% y/y, estimate $3.31 billion
- Greater China rev. $1.86 billion, +2.9% y/y, estimate $1.83 billion
- Asia Pacific & Latin America rev. $1.71 billion, +0.5% y/y, estimate $1.74 billion
Across the product-lines, footwear and most notably ‘Chuck Taylor’ brand Converse saw revenues plunge…
- Converse revenue $480 million, -18% y/y, estimate $545.6 million
- Footwear revenue $8.24 billion, -3.6% y/y, estimate $8.64 billion
- Apparel revenue $3.32 billion, +2.8% y/y, estimate $3.25 billion
- Equipment revenue $578 million, +34% y/y, estimate $446.4 million
But then, during the earnings calls, Nike management said that it sees 1Q revenue down about 10% (dramatically worse than the 3% decline consensus had expected).
This comes after Nike said in March that it expected revenue to fall by a low-single-digit percentage in the first half of its fiscal year.
“A comeback at this scale takes time,” Chief Financial Officer Matt Friend said during the company’s call with analysts.
He added the company is transitioning its product lineup to reignite consumer interest.
NKE shares are trading down almost 12% in the after hours, almost back to COVID lockdown levels…
…almost back to COVID lockdown levels…
Nike Chief Executive Officer John Donahoe is cutting $2 billion in costs and slashing 2% of the workforce, with layoffs recently hitting the company’s European headquarters near Amsterdam and its Boston-based Converse brand.
“We are taking our near-term challenges head-on, while making continued progress in the areas that matter most to NIKE’s future – serving the athlete through performance innovation, moving at the pace of the consumer and growing the complete marketplace,” said John Donahoe, President & CEO, NIKE, Inc.
“I’m confident that our teams are lining up our competitive advantages to create greater impact for our business.”
If Americans can’t afford a new set of sneakers – despite the record number of jobs that Joe Biden has ‘created’, then maybe, just maybe, those jobs weren’t as ‘created’ or ‘well paid’ as some would like you to believe… and maybe, just maybe, the sentiment signals and poll numbers are true about the state of the economy, no matter what all those Nobel laureate economists would prefer that you think.
END
University Michigan sentiment crumbles//inflation expectations also tumble
(zerohedge)
UMich ‘Current Conditions’ Sentiment Crumbles to 13-Month Lows, Inflation Expectations Tumble
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 10:09 AM
The final print for UMich sentiment survey in June saw sentiment improve over the course of the month and inflation expectations decline further from 3.3% flash to 3.0% final for 1y expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
But sentiment overall was lower month over month (despite an uptick intramonth) with the headline dropping from 69.1 to 68.2 with a bid drop in current conditions (lowest since May 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
UMich’s Joanne Hsu notes that:
“While consumers exhibited confidence that inflation will continue to moderate, many expressed concerns about the effect of high prices and weakening incomes on their personal finances. These trends offset the improvements in the short- and long-run outlook for business conditions stemming in part from expectations for softening interest rates.”
That’s reflected in buying conditions crashing across the board…
Source: Bloomberg
As we detailed here, the UMich data indeed shows that a growing majority are giving up hope they’ll ever be able to afford the traditional middle class lifestyle of a car, home, and eventual retirement.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
SWAMP NEWS
joe is done!
CNN Chief Correspondent Says Dems Urging White House To Ask Biden To Step Down After Shocking Debate Performance
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 08:15 AM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
CNN Chief National Correspondent John King says prominent Democrats are set to ask the White House to force Biden to step down as a presidential candidate after his shocking debate performance last night.
Biden went into the debate knowing that he just had to not appear like a human cabbage and scrape through the night.
He failed miserably.
Trump just released a brutal 95 second ad of Joe Biden’s debate lowlights:
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This prompted widespread alarm and panic amongst the establishment media and top Democrats, who are now set to push to have Biden replaced entirely.
According to CNN’s John King, there will now be a mad last minute scramble to force Biden off the ticket.
King said there was “A deep, a wide, and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party, it started minutes into the debate and it continues right now.”
CNN Chief National Correspondent John King says prominent Democrats are talking about going to the White House to ask Biden to step down and/or publicly calling on him to drop out.
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“It involves party strategists, it involves elected officials, it involves fundraisers. And they’re having conversations about the president’s performance which they think was dismal, which they think will hurt other people down the party in the ticket and they’re having conversations about what they should do about it,” he added.
“Some of those conversations include should we go to the White House and ask the president to step aside, other conversations are about should prominent Democrats go public with that call because they feel this debate was so terrible,” said King.
Democrat political analyst Van Jones also suggested that Biden’s awful night should mean he’s replaced before the convention.
“He had a test tonight to restore the confidence of the country and of the base and he failed to do that,” said Jones.
“And I think there’s a lot of people who are going to want to see him consider taking a different course now, we’re still far from our convention and there is time for this party to figure out a different way forward if he will allow us to do that,” he added, saying it was “personally painful” what he witnessed.
Biden is finished.
CNN feels like Biden’s funeral “It’s not just panic, it’s pain.”
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twitter.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1806523693906141444?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E180
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“He’s Not Dropping Out”: Biden Digs In After Disastrous Debate
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 11:00 AM
President Joe Biden is “not dropping out” of the 2024 race despite his party’s collective freakout over last night’s debate performance, which put his severe cognitive decline on display, raising questions about who’s actually running the country.
“Of course he’s not dropping out,” campaign spokesman Seth Schuster told The Hill.
Biden echoed Schuster, saying at a post-debate waffle house stop following the debate: “No. It’s hard to debate a liar. The New York Times pointed out he lied 26 times.”
CNN confirmed the reporting, adding that Biden says he’s committed to the next debate in September.
“He’s Not Dropping Out”: Biden Digs In After Disastrous Debate
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 11:00 AM
President Joe Biden is “not dropping out” of the 2024 race despite his party’s collective freakout over last night’s debate performance, which put his severe cognitive decline on display, raising questions about who’s actually running the country.
“Of course he’s not dropping out,” campaign spokesman Seth Schuster told The Hill.
Biden echoed Schuster, saying at a post-debate waffle house stop following the debate: “No. It’s hard to debate a liar. The New York Times pointed out he lied 26 times.”
CNN confirmed the reporting, adding that Biden says he’s committed to the next debate in September.
“He’s Not Dropping Out”: Biden Digs In After Disastrous Debate
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 11:00 AM
President Joe Biden is “not dropping out” of the 2024 race despite his party’s collective freakout over last night’s debate performance, which put his severe cognitive decline on display, raising questions about who’s actually running the country.
“Of course he’s not dropping out,” campaign spokesman Seth Schuster told The Hill.
Biden echoed Schuster, saying at a post-debate waffle house stop following the debate: “No. It’s hard to debate a liar. The New York Times pointed out he lied 26 times.”
CNN confirmed the reporting, adding that Biden says he’s committed to the next debate in September.
Breaking: CNN reports that President Biden will not drop out. He is committed to a second debate with Donald Trump in September. Wonderful.
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Meanwhile, Democrats are in crisis mode, according to Bloomberg‘s Jessica Karl, who highlights three articles suggesting 1) Biden should step aside, 2) Kamala Harris ‘won the debate … emerging as a better spokesperson for Biden and a possible option should Democrats seriously rethink him as the top of the ticket and move to replace him,’ and 3) Gavin Newsom is ‘ready for the Biden emergency.’
The consensus from my
colleagues? Dems are in crisis mode.
on Kamala Harris: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-28/2024-debate-kamala-harris-shines-as-a-possible-replacement-for-biden…
on Gavin Newsom: https://bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-06-28/gavin-newsom-is-a-top-democrat-to-replace-joe-biden…
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As we noted earlier (via Modernity.news), Democrats are strongly urging the White House to ask Biden to step down following last night.
According to CNN’s John King, there will now be a mad last minute scramble to force Biden off the ticket.
King said there was “A deep, a wide, and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party, it started minutes into the debate and it continues right now.”
“I wish Biden would reflect on this debate performance and then announce his decision to withdraw from the race, throwing the choice of Democratic nominee to the convention,” posted the NY Times‘ Nicholas Kristof on X.
All of that may be wishful thinking as Biden clings to the Ring of Power.
Meanwhile, Democrats are in crisis mode, according to Bloomberg‘s Jessica Karl, who highlights three articles suggesting 1) Biden should step aside, 2) Kamala Harris ‘won the debate … emerging as a better spokesperson for Biden and a possible option should Democrats seriously rethink him as the top of the ticket and move to replace him,’ and 3) Gavin Newsom is ‘ready for the Biden emergency.’
As we noted earlier (via Modernity.news), Democrats are strongly urging the White House to ask Biden to step down following last night.
According to CNN’s John King, there will now be a mad last minute scramble to force Biden off the ticket.
King said there was “A deep, a wide, and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party, it started minutes into the debate and it continues right now.”
“I wish Biden would reflect on this debate performance and then announce his decision to withdraw from the race, throwing the choice of Democratic nominee to the convention,” posted the NY Times‘ Nicholas Kristof on X.
All of that may be wishful thinking as Biden clings to the Ring of Power.
Meanwhile, Democrats are in crisis mode, according to Bloomberg‘s Jessica Karl, who highlights three articles suggesting 1) Biden should step aside, 2) Kamala Harris ‘won the debate … emerging as a better spokesperson for Biden and a possible option should Democrats seriously rethink him as the top of the ticket and move to replace him,’ and 3) Gavin Newsom is ‘ready for the Biden emergency.’
As we noted earlier (via Modernity.news), Democrats are strongly urging the White House to ask Biden to step down following last night.
According to CNN’s John King, there will now be a mad last minute scramble to force Biden off the ticket.
King said there was “A deep, a wide, and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party, it started minutes into the debate and it continues right now.”
“I wish Biden would reflect on this debate performance and then announce his decision to withdraw from the race, throwing the choice of Democratic nominee to the convention,” posted the NY Times‘ Nicholas Kristof on X.
All of that may be wishful thinking as Biden clings to the Ring of Power.
END
Supreme Court Hands Win To Hundreds Of Jan. 6 Defendants, Weakens DOJ’s Case
FRIDAY, JUN 28, 2024 – 11:18 AM
The Supreme Court on Friday handed around 350 Jan. 6 defendants a potentially huge win, while weakening the DOJ’s case against former President Trump in the process.
The court narrowed one specific charge – obstructing an official proceeding – that the DOJ had relied on in more than 300 J6 cases, including Trump’s, Axios reports. This charge has been used almost exclusively to prosecute white-collar crimes like evidence tampering, however the DOJ tried to apply it to J6 defendants, arguing that the riot was an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding – that being the certification of the 2020 election.
The court on Friday said that prosecutors would now need to show that a defendant interfered with documents, records or other material parts of an official proceeding. They also sent the case back to a lower court to reassess Jan. 6 cases in light of the new test.
The Supreme Court’s final decision of the day is Fischer v. U.S. By a 6–3 vote, the majority *significantly weakens* the federal obstruction statute under which about 350 Jan. 6 defendants have been charged. BARRETT dissents, joined by Kagan and Sotomayor https://supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-5572_l6hn.pdf…
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There are currently more than 1,300 J6 defendants – of which roughly 350 of them having been charged with obstructing an official proceeding. Around 170 people have been convicted ussing that charge.
That said, many of the protesters were convicted on other charges, which will still stand despite the obstruction convictions potentially becoming invalid.
The ruling could also weaken the Biden DOJ’s case against Trump – who faces the same charge that the court narrowed, along with a charge of conspiring to obstruct an official proceeding.
KING REPORT
| King Report Bulletin: Biden’s Disastrous Debate Has Democrats in Panic! June 27, 2024 CNN’s John King after the debate: “There is a deep, wide, and very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party and it started minutes into the debate… They think it will hurt other people down the ticket… Some of the conversations include should we go to the White House and ask the president to step aside. Others are… should prominent Democrats go public with that call…” https://x.com/MarinaMedvin/status/1806520391336149412 Politico: Dems freak out over Biden’s debate performance: ‘Biden is toast’ https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/27/biden-debate-opening-concerns-00165595 @paulsperry_: Money is the mother’s milk of politics and it just dried up for Biden tonight. No megadonor in his right mind will open his wallet any wider for Biden now. Virtually all the big Wall Street money and even much of the Silicon Valley money will shift to Trump going forward. CNN: “We should pray for the president! They wanted this night, and this is what we got. We now know that everyone that said Bidens mental acuity was great, lied!” @ABCNewsLive @JonKarl: “This was a very bad night for Joe Biden,” Karl tells @DavidMuir. “You are starting to hear, privately, discussions among Democrats about whether Biden can go on with this campaign.“ https://x.com/ABCNewsLive/status/1806522078998282390 New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof said, “I wish Biden would reflect on this debate performance and then announce his decision to withdraw from the race… Drudge Report: Operation: Replace Biden; Dems Scramble with 130 Day to Go! Debate Catastrophe NYT Deputy Opinion Editor Patrick Healey: I’m Hearing High Anxiety from Democrats over Biden’s Debate Performance – Thirty minutes into the presidential debate, I’ve heard from three veteran Democratic presidential campaign officials, and all of them had the same reaction to President Biden’s performance: This is a disaster… One of the Democrats said Biden looked scared. Another said it was an “emperor has no clothes” performance so far. The third said of the performance overall, “Don’t ask.” MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace said there is a conversation in Biden’s circle about replacing him. @WallStreetSilv: Even the left-wing NBC News post-debate analysis is that Joe Biden is done. Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: VERY well-connected Democratic source tells me: – the house and Senate are the GOP’s for now -everyone is freaking out – he needs to go – but no way they replace him unless he agrees (It’s up to Jill Biden!) @joelpollak: “The smartest people around Biden … thought this was a good idea.” – @MSNBC @greg_price11: Zoomed in video of Jill Biden leading Joe off the debate stage. This is insane. https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1806522851329253446 @BillAckman: Tonight was an indictment of the Democratic Party. How could they? Did they think they could pull one over on the American people? Catastrophic for the party and everyone in charge. How much money has the party and the campaign taken from the American people to put up Joe Biden as the candidate? What do Putin, Xi, and other world leaders think about Joe and the USA now? Axios’ @AlexThomp: The spin room is full of Trump surrogates. No one from Biden’s camp we can see. Reporters keep asking each other if they have seen any of them. CNN’s Dana Bash and Jack Tapper did a very good job as moderators of the debate. DJT was so-so. @KassyDillon: Biden’s biographer on CNN just now: “This was a person who was diminished from where he was on the debate stage 4 years ago. A lot of Americans who don’t follow politics saw this and were shocked.” The dilemma for Dems is that everyone, including Biden Kool-Aid drinkers know Joe is gone and most Americans know Joe is gone. They only reason Dems, who knew Joe was impaired long ago, is that Dems fear American voters will punish Dems for the deceit with a GOP wave in November. Now that Dems know that most Americans know Biden is impaired, how do they alone The Big Guy to continue as president? Especially when they fear that President Kamala Harris could do worse in Nov.? @johnddavidson: Forget about the election for a minute. After tonight we should all be asking the same question: who is running the country? Who is calling the shots, especially on foreign affairs? Because it isn’t Biden. Dr. Jill talking to Biden like he’s a Tee-baller: “Joe, you did such a great job answering every question. You knew all the facts…” https://x.com/TPostMillennial/status/1806530807026122972 The pressure on AG Garland to release the tape of Biden’s interrogation by Special Counsel Hur will escalate. Will Garland face arrest by the House now that everyone knows Joe is impaired? Biden-DJT Debate Highlights Joe’s voice was weak and halting Joe started rambling and stumbling within 15 minutes @nypost: President Biden froze and then had a verbal blunder, saying he “beat Medicare,” minutes after he kicked off his debate with former President Donald Trump on Thursday. Twice within the first 15 minutes, CNN stopped Joe when he started rambling Daily Mail: Moment Joe Biden completely loses his train of thought answering a question 12 minutes into the debate https://trib.al/wNw5MSt The 3rd time Joe mumbled/rambled, DJT said “I really don’t know what he says at the end of that sentence—I don’t think he knows what he said either.” The real-time response soared for DJT and dropped to Joe by 9:20 ET. https://x.com/M_McDonough/status/1806497938253717506 Biden claimed he was endorsed by the Border Patrol. This was another lie. Border Patrol Union: “To be clear, we never have and never will endorse Biden.” @BillAckman 21:20 ET: I have to say this is embarrassing not just for Biden but also for our country. How can anyone in their right mind believe @POTUS Biden can serve another term? It is not even clear he can finish this term. What is his family thinking? Where are his closest friends when he needs their counsel most? Biden claimed no U.S. troops died on his watch; 13 were killed in Afghanistan. @bonchieredstate: Biden lying about his son now. He did not “come back with stage four” cancer. He developed cancer years later. @kerpen: The split screens are excruciating. No way this guy can even finish his current term. @AnnCoulter 21:34 ET: Biden staff frantically trying to figure out how to cancel the next debate. GOP Rep. @NancyMace: Did the Biden campaign negotiate a mercy rule? @willcain: This is a shame on everyone who allowed this, who enabled this, who placed their own ambitions and partisanship over the security of the country. This means the First Lady, the Chief of Staff, the media and the Democratic Party. Anti-DJT & liberal @AP: In the first half-hour of debate, a raspy Joe Biden made several verbal missteps while Donald Trump countered with falsehoods. Follow the AP for live updates. @scrippsnews: Biden inaccurately states Trump was charged for sleeping with a pornstar. Trump was actually charged for concealing payments related to Stormy Daniels, not for the act itself. @greggutfeld: Think of all those slimy a$$#oles in the media and in politics who said Biden was as sharp as ever. GOP Rep. @michaelgwaltz: Now we see why there is NO WAY Garland will release the Hur tapes! @MZHemingway: Trump says the public understands the evil of Democrat lawfare better than Biden does, as indicated by his poll numbers going up. @AnnCoulter: The problem for Dems is, who do they replace him with? Some decent Democrats, BUT THEY CAN’T PICK A WHITE MAN. Biden is their last white man. GOP Sen. @tedcruz: Watching Biden’s excruciating debate performance tonight, I believe the odds are now greater than 80% that the Dems dump Biden. An hour into the debate: “President Biden has a cold.” – NBC reports citing two sources @rachelvscott: Trump campaign senior advisor responds to reporting that President Biden has a cold. “How convenient. He spent last ten days on vacation.” @JohnFBachman: There’s no way there’s going to be a second debate. Biden told this whopper: “I got my handicap when I was vice president down to a 6.” Trump to Biden: “That’s the biggest lie. I’ve seen your swing… Let’s not act like children.” @RNCResearch: Biden ends his disastrous and humiliating debate performance just as he began — rambling incoherently. He’s not only not playing with a full deck — he can’t even find the deck. SAD! https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1806517966957109452 |
GREG HUNTER
Biden Debate Disaster, War Exploding, Economy Tanking
By Greg Hunter On June 28, 2024 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups2 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (WNW 640 6.28.24)
I could not see that Joe Biden scored a single blow on President Trump in the CNN debate on Thursday night. Biden held his own in the debate that preceded the 2020 Election, but in this debate, he showed how much he has declined. He mumbled many of his answers and could not mount a single defense to President Trump telling him “We are closer to nuclear war than we have ever been.” Trump beat Biden over the head on the problems the open Southern border has caused America: crime, debt, drugs, inflation or all of the above. Trump said everyone in the military who had a hand in the Afghanistan withdrawal in 2021 “should have been fired, and you did not fire a single person.” Trump also said we have been “living in Hell for the past three and a half years,” and “If Biden is elected again, we won’t have a country left.” Biden had no comeback for this or any other of Trump’s debate points. So, Trump won hands down. Call it a blowout. It was like a football team beating an opponent 100 to 3. Now, everybody knows (including the Democrats) Biden cannot be President. In a way, I feel sorry for Biden, but I feel way sorrier for the “Hell” we are living in here in America under the Biden policies. Remember that Martin Armstrong predicted the Dem party wanted Biden to do terrible in the debate with Trump so they could justify replacing him on the 2024 ticket. The got their wish.
War is exploding and intensifying everywhere. Cluster bombs dropped on Russian in Crimea, and the Hezbollah conflict in Northern Israel will make the Gaza conflict look like a party. Hezbollah has thousands of rockets that can hit any target in Israel. So, will Israel wipe them out first? Iran is now mobilizing for war against Israel. Will you see regular Iranian troops going up against Israel? As far as Russian reprisals for the cluster bomb attack, it looks like Putin is not taking the bait to widen the war and go nuclear just yet. Putin still wants a Ukrainian ceasefire. If Trump was in office, this would have never happened. Trump said this in the CNN debate, and that was yet another point Biden had no comeback for.
The Fed did a so-called “stress test” on 31 of the biggest banks in America. Some reported they passed with flying colors, and others said this stress test showed the big banks are “weaker” than in the past. It sure feels like somebody is lying because the FDIC just said at the beginning of June that 63 banks are on a so-called “watch list” because they have more than a half trillion dollars in sour debt. The FDIC list of problem banks is secret, which does not inspire confidence, and the transparency is like looking through mud. Also, Michael Snyder has just put up a list of 11 signs that the economy is tanking. Third on his list is “When Banks get into trouble, they start closing branches. So far this year, US banks have closed more than 400 branches all over the country.” As I said, somebody is lying about the health of the banks and the health of the US economy.
There is more in the 41-minute newscast.
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Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he talks about these stories and more in the Weekly News Wrap-Up for 6.28.24.
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After the Wrap-Up:
World renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner will be the guest for the “Saturday Night Post.” Nenner will explain why his “war cycle has turned straight up” and the economic cycle has turned down. Nenner says brace “for very hard times.” He will explain why in detail.
SEE YOU ON MONDAY
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