GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $0.30 TO $2329.20
SILVER PRICE UP $0.5 TO $29.27
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2332.10
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.41
Bitcoin morning price:$62,821 UP 2430 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $60,391 DOWN 1176 dollars//
Platinum price closing DOWN $21.45 TO $979.15
Palladium price; UP $0.80 AT $979.75
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 32 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//JULY TO JULY
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 01 Jul 2024 12:34:45 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3203.79 UP 23.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1844.80 UP 6.80 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2172,41 UP 4.08 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16.2024)
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EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,327.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 06/28/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/02/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 12
365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 18
661 C JP MORGAN 2
690 C ABN AMRO 7
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 23 2
TOTAL: 34 34
JPMorgan stopped 2/34
FOR JULY 2024
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 34 NOTICES FOR 3400 OZ or .1056 TONNES
total notices so far: 1592 contracts for 159,200 Oz (4.9517 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 724 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 3.620 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4591 for 22.955 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 827,61TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.05 AT THE SLV//
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ INTO THE SLV.
// INVENTORY RISES TO 437.447 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 437.447 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3222 CONTRACTS TO 155,366 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS SURPRISINGLY ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.27 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD SOME LONG LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET LOSS OF 1972 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD MAJOR SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER GOOD SIZED 468 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY JUNE 4 AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, JUNE 7 AND AGAIN ON YESTERDAY’S TRADING
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 468 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.27) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1972 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.27.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1250 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON OF 510,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 28.350 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 468 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 344 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAYS, total 1250 contracts: OR 6.250 MILLION OZ (1250 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 6.250 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 6.250 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3222 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1250 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 510,000 OZ E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 28.350 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1972 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 468 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND SOME LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (468) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 724 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 3.620 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 268 OI CONTRACTS TO 448,354 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 548 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (268 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $3.80 IN PRICE/FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 7.6360 TONNES/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $3.80 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2520 OI CONTRACTS (7.838 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2252 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 448,354
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2520 CONTRACTS WITH 268 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2252 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2520 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 832 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2252 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 268 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2520 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 7.6360 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 832 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 2252 CONTRACTS OR 225,200 OZ OR 7.004 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2252 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 7.004 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 7.004 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.197% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 7.004 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3222 CONTRACTS OI TO 155,336 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1250 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1250 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1250 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3222 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1250 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1972 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.8600 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.27 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27,33 PTS OR 0.92% //Hang Seng CLOSED // Nikkei CLOSED UP 47.98 OR 0.12%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.27%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2682 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2996/ Oil DOWN TO 82.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.52 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 268 CONTRACTS TO 448,354 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.80 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2252 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 2252 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2252 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2520 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2252 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 268 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.80/FRIDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A SMALL SIZED 832 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN FRIDAY’S TRADING
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (7.6360 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 7.6360 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $3.80 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2520 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 7.838 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 7.6360 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 7.6360 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $3.80
WE HAVE REMOVED 548 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2520 CONTRACTS OR 252,000 OZ (7.838 TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY 145,350contracts//poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
JULY 1 JULY GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JULY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 14,298.742 IZ Malca Manfra . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 34 notice(s) 3400 OZ 0.1057 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 863 contracts 86300 OZ 2.6849 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1592 notices 159,200 oz 4.9517 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Malca 14,202.293 oz
‘ii) Out of Manfra; 94.453 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 14,298.746 oz
Adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 897 contracts having LOST 1535 contracts. We had 1558 notices filed on Friday so we gained 23 contracts or an additional 2300 oz will stand at the comex (0.0715 tonnes)
AUGUST LOST 1563 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 347,095 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED ITS FIRST CONTRACT TO STAND AT ONE.
OCTOBER GAINED 149 CONTRACTS UP TO 20,272 CONTRACTS
We had 34 contracts filed for today representing 3400 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 34 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1592) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (897 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (34 x 100 oz per contract( equals 245,500 OZ OR 7.6360 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (1592 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (897// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (34) x 100 oz which equals 245,500 oz (7.6360 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 7,6360 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,682,975.981 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,566,511.560 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,834,327.184( 243.68 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,732m184.376 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,151,352 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.332 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 1/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 598,820.640 oz LOOMIS . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | NIL |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 724 CONTRACT(S) (3,620,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1079 contracts (5.395 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 4591 Contracts (22.955 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit NIL oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.402million oz/297.662million or 43.23%
adjustment: 2 customer to dealer
a)customer to dealer brinks 10,020,360 oz:
b) customer to dealer CNT: 305,787.840 oz
customer withdrawals:1
ii) Out of loomis: 598,820.640 0z
total withdrawal: 598,820.640 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 74.544MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.662
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 1803 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 3969 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 3867 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY SO WE LOST 102 CONTRACTS OR 510,000 OZ WERE E.F.P’D TO LONDON TO TAKE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER THERE. THEY NEEDED THE REAL PHYSICAL STUFF AND NEEDED THE SUPPLY IN A HURRY.
AUG, SAW A LOSS OF 174 CONTRACTS TO 144
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 136 CONTRACTS TO 129,532
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 724 for 3.620 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 56,510 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4591 x 5,000 oz = 22.955 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY ((1803) and the number of notices served upon today 724 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 4591 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (1803)x number of notices served upon today minus (724)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 28.350 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 28.350 million oz.
There are 74.859 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD///:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 827.61 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 437.447 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
end
4. other gold commentaries/podcasts/live from the vault Andrew Maguire 179
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27,33 PTS OR 0.92% //Hang Seng CLOSED // Nikkei CLOSED UP 47.98 OR 0.12%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.27%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2682 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2996/ Oil DOWN TO 82.00 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 85.52 /Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2682
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2996
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27,33 PTS OR 0.92 %
HANG SENG CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed UP 47.98 PTS OR 0.12 %
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.33 EURO RISES TO 1.0747 UP 50 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,055 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 161.11 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.5640/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.071 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.434%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.720
3j Gold at $2337.30//Silver at: 29.30 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 56/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 86.99
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 161.11/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.055% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9011 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9685 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.418 UP 8 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.576 UP 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.760 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.69…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.260 UP 8 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise, European Markets Relief Rally After No Surprises From French Election
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 08:16 AM
US equity futures are higher boosted by a relief rally in French stocks and European bonds, where the result of the French parliamentary election (no outright majority for Le Pen) was not as bad as some had feared. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3, trading near session highs,while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% with Nvidia dropping as much as 2.8%, but off the lows. Major European markets are higher led by France and Italy after Le Pen’s National Rally led the first round of snap polls but failed to secure an absolute majority as some polls had suggested; CAC +1.4%. On macro data, Germany regional CPI suggests some cooling. We will receive the national German CPI at 8am ET. In Asia, PBOC signals possible government bond sales to cool market rally which pushed Chinese bond yields to record lows. Meanwhile bond yields in the US are 1-2bp higher, the 10Y TSY trading at 4.41%, following higher EU yields; the USD is lower. Commodities are higher led by oil and base metals. Today, the macro focus will be June ISM-Mfg where consensus expects a modest increase to 49.1 vs. 48.7 prior.
In premarket trading, Spirit AeroSystems rallied 6.3% after Boeing agreed to buy back the supplier in an all-stock deal that values it at $4.7 billion. Chewy shares soared 29% after influential investor Keith Gill disclosed a 6.6% passive stake in the online pet food and product retailer. Mega cap tech (ex. NVDA) are modestly higher: AMZN +39bp, GOOG/L +28bp, MSFT +26bp; Semis are weaker: NVDA -2.8%, MU -74bp, AMD -52bp. Her are some other notable premarket movers:
- Birkenstock rises 3% after UBS boosted its rating to buy, saying that the company can achieve stronger sales and margins over the long term.
- NIO ADRs climbs 4% after the Chinese EV maker reported a rise in June deliveries.
European stocks snapped a four-day losing streak and the euro rose as French election results suggested there’s a smaller probability of extreme policies coming from Le Pen’s RN. Traders interpreted the first round of legislative voting as an indication that Marine Le Pen’s party faces a tougher-than-expected road to overall victory, reducing the risks of spending plans that would rattle financial markets. The 10-year spread on French-German debt narrowed to a two-week low.
“Markets are quite content there’s no apparent absolute majority,” said Claudia Panseri, chief investment officer for France at UBS Wealth Management. “The most extreme scenarios for the spread have been excluded.”
France’s second round of voting will be held on July 7. The French political world is now embarking on a period of horse-trading. In constituencies where three people qualified for the runoffs, the third-placed candidate can withdraw to boost the chances of another mainstream party defeating the far right.
“It’s hard to argue that you’ve got a good outcome,” Sebastian Raedler, head of European equity strategy at Bank of America, said on Bloomberg Television. “Maybe you block a majority by the hard right. But in the best-case scenario, you get a hung parliament. That effectively means very little decision making, no ability to deal with a very wide budget deficit, and also the European integration story effectively put on hold.”
In any case, the kneejerk reaction was a clear relief rally as France’s CAC 40 Index jumped as much as 2.8% before retracing some gains. Banking stocks led the advance in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index, as French lenders Societe Generale SA, BNP Paribas SA and Credit Agricole SA all surged by more than 5%. The euro climbed to its strongest level since mid June. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Renault rises as much as 4.1%, buoyed by Saudi Aramco’s decision to acquire a 10% stake in Horse Powertrain, the French carmaker’s joint venture with China’s Geely
- Zalando gains as much as 6.6%, the most since May 7, as JPMorgan (neutral) reiterates its positive catalyst watch on the German online clothing retailer, ahead of August’s quarterly results
- Aurubis shares rise as much as 6.4% after analysts at Bankhaus Metzler raised their price target for the German copper smelter to €91, the highest among analysts tracked by Bloomberg, citing higher metal prices
- Gubra jumps as much as 21% after the Danish pharmaceuticals firm announced it and partner Boehringer Ingelheim have started clinical testing of BI 3034701, a long-acting triple agonist peptide with a potential to become a next-generation and first-in-class obesity treatment
- Matas shares gain as much as 5.2%, the most since May 28, after Swedish business daily Dagens Industri recommends the Nordic cosmetics retailer in its stockpick-of-the-week column
- Clariant gains as much as 4.7% after Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation to buy from neutral, saying the Swiss chemical company’s new consumer-focused strategy should allow it to close its valuation gap with peers
- Aperam shares gain as much as 5.5% after Morgan Stanley says the steelmaker’s market update points to “modest upside” to the second quarter adjusted Ebitda on small inventory valuation gains
- Anglo American drops as much as 4% in London after a fire halts production at its Grosvenor site, the company’s biggest metallurgical coal project in Australia. The miner said it will take months for the blaze to be extinguished
- Bechtle shares fall as much as 5.7% to the lowest since October, after Exane downgraded the stock to underperform from neutral, saying the IT firm likely faces continued weak demand among small- and medium-sized firms in Germany
Meanwhile, back in the US, investors prepare for the second-quarter reporting season, Goldman Sachs strategists said Corporate America faces the highest earnings bar in almost three years. Single-stock analysts predict profits at S&P 500 firms rose 9% on average in the April-June period — the biggest year-over-year increase since the fourth quarter of 2021, Goldman strategists led by David Kostin wrote in a note.
“The magnitude of earnings-per-share beats is likely to diminish as consensus forecasts set a higher bar than in previous quarters,” Kostin said. “We expect the outperformance ‘reward’ for stocks beating estimates will be smaller than average again this quarter.”
Earlkier, Asian equities started the week on a positive note after a rally in Japanese stocks and as Chinese shares reversed earlier losses. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.3%, with Hitachi, Mitsubishi Corp. and BHP Group contributing the most. Stock benchmarks gained in Taiwan and South Korea, while they fell in Australia. Japanese shares rallied as the decimation of the yen resumed. Financial companies were among big gainers in the country, boosted by bets on a Bank of Japan rate hike. Shares also were helped by survey data that showed confidence among the country’s large manufacturers rose from a quarter ago. The survey “confirmed that an inflationary trend is in place, with business sentiment strong and manufacturing passing on rising costs,” said Kohei Onishi, a senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. Companies’ yen exchange rate assumptions suggest earnings will likely be upgraded, he said. In China, mainland equities reversed earlier losses after a private gauge of factory activity rose to a three-year high, even as data showed that confidence among manufacturers is sagging. Hong Kong stock trading was closed for a holiday.
In emerging markets, South African assets rallied after President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a new cabinet that includes members of the opposition Democratic Alliance, considered business-friendly by investors.
In FX, the Bloomberg Spot Dollar Index was little changed while the euro outperformed most of its G10 peers on signs Marine Le Pen’s far-right party appeared to win the first round of France’s legislative election with a smaller margin of victory than some polls had indicated.
- EUR/USD climbed as much as 0.6% to 1.0776, the highest since June 12. One-month implied volatility in USD/JPY rises above 10% for the first time since May 6 as the tenor now captures the July 31 policy decisions by the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
- EUR/CHF rose as much as 0.5%, in a sign investors took heart in the French voting result. The franc is typically the preferred haven play for political risk in Europe
Treasuries slightly cheaper from belly out to long-end of the curve which underperforms, adding to Friday’s aggressive steepening that accelerated into the month-end close. European bonds lag significantly as haven demand is unwound with the first round of voting in France pointing to no single party gaining an absolute majority. US session highlights include ISM manufacturing gauge, while Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak in Sintra Tuesday.
In rates, US long-end yields cheaper on the day by about 1.5bp, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads; 10-year yields around 4.41% with bunds and gilts lagging by 6bp and 3.5bp in the sector. French bonds outperform in Europe after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally failed to record a decisive win in the first round of France’s snap parliamentary elections. European bonds elsewhere lag significantly as haven demand is unwound with the first round of voting in France pointing to no single party gaining an absolute majority.
In commodities, oil rose as traders assessed economic outlook and geopolitical risks in Europe and the Middle East. Iron ore rose amid tentative signs of recovery in China’s steel-intensive property market, and speculation that Beijing could do more to support the sector.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes S&P Global June final manufacturing PMI (9:45am), May construction spending and June ISM manufacturing (10am). JOLTS, ADP employment change, ISM services gauge and June jobs report are ahead this week, No Fed speakers scheduled for the session; Powell talks Tuesday on a panel with ECB President Christine Lagarde and Brazil’s Roberto Campos Neto in Sintra
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,532.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 514.68
- MXAP up 0.2% to 180.89
- MXAPJ little changed at 567.36
- Nikkei up 0.1% to 39,631.06
- Topix up 0.5% to 2,824.28
- Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,718.61
- Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 2,994.73
- Sensex up 0.5% to 79,457.06
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,750.74
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,804.31
- Brent Futures up 0.7% to $85.60/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.1% to $2,324.93
- US Dollar Index down 0.34% to 105.51
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.57%
- Euro up 0.5% to $1.0765
- Brent Futures up 0.7% to $85.60/bbl
Top Overnight News
- US President Biden’s family is urging him to stay in the race and keep fighting despite last week’s disastrous debate performance, according to NYT.
- European stocks and the euro rallied on speculation Marine Le Pen’s far-right party will struggle to win an outright majority in French elections, easing investor concern that the region’s second-largest economy was headed for a radical policy shift.
- French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front are weighing whether to pull candidates from the second round of the legislative election on Sunday to keep the ascendant far-right National Rally out of power.
- French markets rebounded after Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party finished with a smaller margin of victory than indicated by polls, spurring a relief rally across the nation’s assets.
- President Joe Biden’s campaign is going on the attack against a chorus of donors, consultants, officials and media voices calling on him to drop out of the 2024 race after his devastating debate performance.
- The growing prospect of a Trump presidential victory is making yield curve steepeners an attractive bet as growth will likely slow and inflation quicken under such a scenario, according to Morgan Stanley.
- The People’s Bank of China said it will borrow government bonds from primary dealers, a sign it may be contemplating selling securities to cool down a market rally.
- Boeing Co. agreed to buy back Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. for $37.25 a share in an all-stock deal that values the supplier at $4.7 billion, unwinding a two-decade separation as the embattled US planemaker tries to fix is manufacturing defects.
- EU plans to charge Meta Platforms over its ‘pay or consent’ model, FT reports citing sources; regulators are concerned the model offers consumers a misleading choice, potentially forcing consent to personal data tracking for ads due to financial barriers. Penalties could reach 10% of global turnover, rising to 20% for repeat violations.
French Election
- French Election 1st Round: National Rally makes significant gains but the odds of another hung parliament have likely increased.
- Exit polls have National Rally (RN) on 34.5%, the New Popular Front (NFP) on 29%, Macron’s Ensemble (ENS) on 21-23% and Les Republicans (LR) on 10%. When extrapolated into seat projections, there is a slight discrepancy between vendors with the forecast range for RN not encapsulating the 289 majority mark via the IFOP survey and France Televisions-Radio’s calculations; however, estimates from Elabe have an RN majority within the forecast range.
- Immediately after the exit polls dropped, PM Attal outlined a broad call to the centre and left-wing. Calling for voters to prevent RN from winning a second-round majority, to facilitate this he has pledged to stand down ENS candidates who have no chance of winning in the second round to give the non-RN candidate the best chance of victory.
- Into the second round, there are now three main points to look for: Whether Macron shows any sign of wavering from his pledge to stay as President irrespective of the result; The reception of NFP to the call from ENS to cooperate to prevent an RN outright majority, i.e. if they demand the appointment of an ENS PM or similar; Any signs of the non-RN friendly contingent of LR wavering from their position and joining forces with RN, as the addition of their 41-61 projected seats could be enough to secure an outright RN majority.
- Reminder, the second round occurs on 7th July. Exit polls are to be released from 19:00BST/14:00ET with official results emerging from some constituencies immediately but the full picture will not be known until early-Monday.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the new quarter somewhat varied as participants digested key data releases and markets braced for a busy week ahead culminating in the latest NFP report on Friday. ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech amid headwinds from firmer yields although the index was off worst levels owing to resilience in mining stocks. Nikkei 225 gained at the open amid initial currency weakness although some of the gains were then faded as participants digested a mixed BoJ Tankan survey. Shanghai Comp. swung between gains and losses with price action choppy in early trade after mixed PMI data from China which showed official Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory and Non-Manufacturing PMI missed estimates, but Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts to print its highest in three years. Meanwhile, Hong Kong markets were shut for a holiday which also meant the absence of Stock Connect flows.
Top Asian News
- Indonesia is to impose safeguard duties of 100% to 200% on imports ranging from footwear to ceramics, while it mainly imports apparel and clothing accessories from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh, according to Nikkei.
- India’s government source said it is monitoring cheap Chinese imports, while India’s steel ministry is in talks with the commerce ministry over rising imports and the industry has sought a probe.
- China’s Vice Premier is to hold a symposium related to foreign investments on Monday, according to State Media; says China will further expand market access and break unreasonable limit for foreign investments.
CAC 40 (+1.8%) is the marked outperformer after the 1st round of the French legislative election, with the rally coming despite marked RN gains as the projections potentially point to increased odds of another hung parliament i.e. no RN majority. Though, initial upside has trimmed somewhat given we have another week of political uncertainty ahead and the fiscal situation remains tense and unfavourable for France. Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) and European generally are firmer, but have also trimmed modestly off best levels with newsflow ex-France light or not having much impact. Sectors much the same with the breakdown largely a reflection of the respective weighting of French stocks within the sectors as opposed to a broad trend. Stateside, futures are generally in the green (ES +0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY +0.3%) as we began a holiday shortened week that is firmly weighted towards NFP on Friday; note, NQ has slipped just into the red amid relatively pronounced pre-market pressure in Nvidia (-2.5%) though seemingly without a fresh fundamental driver.
Top European News
- European Commission President von der Leyen said European companies are signing deals or MOUs worth over EUR 40bln at the Egypt-EU investment conference, according to Reuters.
- Austria’s far-right Freedom Party chief Kickl said they are forming a new political alliance with Orban’s Fidesz in Hungary and Babis’s Czech ANO party, according to Reuters.
- The Sunday Times newspaper endorsed the Labour Party for the upcoming UK election.
FX
- DXY weighed on by the firmer EUR. Index down to a 105.42 base, holding above the 25th June low at 105.37. Docket for today is features ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed’s Williams, the pricing component from the PMI and any commentary from Williams on PCE will be keenly sought.
- EUR the outperformer, in a relief-rally after the weekends’ French results which show that the far-right may struggle to form a Parliamentary majority, EUR/USD at a 1.0776 peak ahead of the 1.08 figure, a point it has been below since 14th June. Hefty OpEx features on today’s NY Cut.
- Cable benefitting from the encouraging risk environment and strengthening to a 1.2689 peak into this week’s UK election; however, GBP is softer vs the EUR.
- USD/JPY holding just above 161.00 with havens generally struggling in the morning’s risk environment. Last week’s multi-year peak stands at 161.28.
- Antipodeans firmer continuing the upside seen in the tail-end of last week, no real follow-through from Chinese PMIs overnight.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1265 vs exp. 7.2558 (prev. 7.1268).
- South African President Ramaphosa reappointed Enoch Godongwana as Finance Minister, while he appointed John Steenhuisien as Agriculture Minister and Ronald Lamola as Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, according to Reuters.
Fixed Income
- OATs saw gains in excess of 20 ticks at best which alongside pressure in Bunds saw the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread narrow to 72.4bps from an 80.1bp close on Friday. However, OATs have since come under pressure and are lower by around 20 ticks as the initial relief rally dissipates, a move which has re-widened the spread somewhat to 75bps.
- Bunds pressured as they trim recent strength seen into the French election, down to a 130.55 base. No real reaction to the numerous data points from Germany, with state CPIs broadly chiming with the mainland consensus.
- Gilts weighed on in-line with the above, at an initial low point of 97.14 which printed around the Final Manufacturing PMI that was revised lower and provided some support. Though, internal commentary factored on the hawkish side and has seen the benchmark slip to a fresh 97.07 base.
- US Treasuries are directionally in-fitting with other core players; just off a 109-15 base but remain towards the low-end of a 10 tick range
Commodities
- Crude bid across the board given the broader risk appetite and weaker USD. Crude-specific newsflow has been light this morning but as the US hurricane season nears, the desk is keeping an eye on Hurricane Beryl.
- WTI August trades within a USD 81.38-82.29/bbl range, Brent September sits in a USD 84.54-85.74/bbl parameter.
- Saudi Aramco’s strategic gas expansion reportedly progresses with USD 25bln of contract awards.
- Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold biding time ahead of this week’s macro risk events whilst spot silver is underpinned by the softer Dollar.
- Base metals are mostly firmer, though off best, with the softer USD and risk tone assisting, though the magnitude of gains has trimmed alongside a moderation in broader risk appetite.
- NHC says Hurricane Beryl is taking aim at the windward islands, with life-threatening winds and storm surge expected to begin this morning.
Geopolitics – Middle East
- US proposed new language in an effort to reach a Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal, according to Reuters.
- Hamas officials said there is no progress in ceasefire talks with Israel but it is still ready to deal positively with any ceasefire proposal that ends the war in Gaza, according to Reuters.
- Iraq’s Islamic Resistance reportedly hit an Israeli port with a drone, according to IRNA.
- Israel’s Finance Minister extended the waiver allowing cooperation between Israeli and Palestinian banks in the West Bank for four months, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.
- Iran’s UN mission said an obliterating war will ensue if Israel attacks Lebanon and that all options including the full involvement of resistance fronts are on the table.
- Iran will hold a presidential election run-off on July 5th as no candidate secured 50% of votes.
- Israeli Media reports “The end of the war in its current form within 10 days”, via Sky News Arabia citing Channel 13.
Geopolitics – Other
- Russia took control of the settlement of Shumy in Ukraine, while Russian forces also took over Spirne and Novooleksandrivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to RIA citing the Defence Ministry. It was separately reported that a Ukrainian drone attack killed five people in Russia’s borderline Kursk region, while Russia’s Emergency Ministry said four of its employees were injured in Ukraine’s shelling of Donetsk.
- North Korea condemned ‘Freedom Edge’ joint military drills by the US, South Korea and Japan as provocation, while it said it will make an important announcement and will protect regional peace with an aggressive and overwhelming response, according to KCNA. It was also reported that North Korea conducted a missile launch of a short-range ballistic missile and another ballistic missile, according to Yonhap citing the South Korean military.
- US military raised the alert level of several bases in Europe to its second-highest level, according to the Times of Israel citing multiple American media outlets.
US Event Calendar
- 09:45: June S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 51.7, prior 51.7
- 10:00: May Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
- 10:00: June ISM Manufacturing, est. 49.1, prior 48.7
- June ISM Employment, est. 50.0, prior 51.1
- June ISM New Orders, est. 49.0, prior 45.4
- June ISM Prices Paid, est. 55.8, prior 57.0
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The biggest shock in Europe on Sunday, after a hugely anticipated battle, was that England football team managed to find a way of winning through to the last 16 in what was one of the most woeful and undeserved victories of all time. As this was unfolding the first round of the French elections perhaps delivered a slightly less convincing victory for the far-right than final polls suggested and with other parties now seemingly open to form alliances in the second round, this is likely to further reduce the far-right’s chance of an overall majority in parliament. This has helped the Euro to move +0.40% higher overnight to trade at 1.0756 against the dollar, with Euro Stoxx futures climbing +1.2% as I type.
To recap, Le Pen’s National Rally look set to win around 34.2% of the vote, slightly underperforming the final poll of polls which had them at 36.2%. The left-wing NPF coalition are expected to be at around 29% slightly outperforming their final poll of polls of 28.3%. Macron’s party is on track for around 21% also a bit above the final poll of polls of 20.4%.
In terms of what happens next, all those candidates that have an absolute majority of votes and a vote greater than 25% of the electorate is elected. For those not crossing the threshold, the second round this coming Sunday is a run-off between the top two candidates plus any other candidates who polled more than 12.5% of registered voters. Then the one with the most votes is elected.
The left alliance has said it will remove candidates that are in third place which will be problematic to the Far Right’s chances of a majority. Over half the 577 parliamentary seats, a historically very high number, are expected to go to the second round with lots of tactical voting now likely. The deadline for filing papers to accept the opportunity to be on Sunday’s second round is at 6pm tomorrow. So we’ll have a good idea of tactical alliances then.
Our economics and rates strategy teams, alongside our traders, will be doing a webinar this morning at 10am London time to discuss the implications of these election results. Register Here to watch.
Moving on and as it’s the start Q3 today, we’ll shortly be releasing our performance review for the quarter just gone. On the plus side, Q2 saw equities continue to advance, and the S&P 500 hit many more fresh new highs thanks to further gains for the Magnificent 7. But the gains remained narrow, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 actually losing ground in Q2. Meanwhile, sovereign bonds struggled in Q2 as investors generally priced in slower rate cuts, even as the ECB cut for the first time since the pandemic in a June that saw a more dovish pricing for rate expectations. Politics and geopolitics were also back in focus, not least in France where there was a notable selloff after the snap election announcement. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.
In terms of this week, it will be quite a busy one considering its a US holiday. Thursday is Independence Day which means Friday will likely see a skeleton staffing for the latest employment report with the all-important payrolls number.
Elsewhere on a day-by-day basis the main highlights are as follows. Today brings the US ISM and German CPI and the start of the annual ECB Sintra central bank conference with Lagarde speaking for the first amongst many appearances this week. Tomorrow brings the US JOLTS report, Eurozone CPI and both Powell and Lagarde on a panel at Sintra. Wednesday brings US services ISM, the ADP report, initial jobless claims a day earlier than usual and the trade balance data. The FOMC minutes are also released. We’ll also see China’s Caixin services PMI and the Eurozone PPI. Thursday sees the UK election and Swiss CPI with Friday seeing German and French IP, Eurozone and Italian retail sales and the Canadian job report to go alongside the US equivalent.
Previewing the US employment report on Friday, our economists expect headline (+225k forecast vs. +272k previously) and private (+195k vs. +229k) payrolls to be above the +190k and +163k expected by the consensus. The three-month averages are +249k and +206k, respectively. Our economists and consensus expect unemployment to stay at 4% although our economists think the risk is more skewed to rounding down to 3.9%. Remember last month saw the first print above 4% in nearly 2 and a half years but there is more uncertainty over the current accuracy of the household survey which the unemployment rate comes from than their establishment survey which payrolls comes from. Remember as ever that the JOLTS data (tomorrow) should be a better gauge of how tight the labour market is but as always is a month behind the employment report.
Asian equity markets are relatively quiet this morning after mixed Chinese PMIs. As I check my screens, the Nikkei (+0.18%), the KOSPI (+0.20%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.30%) are seeing minor gains while the CSI (-0.19%) is edging lower. Hong Kong is closed for a public holiday. S&P 500 (+0.27%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.35%) futures are trading higher, likely helped by news from the French election. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr USTs are around a basis point lower, standing at 4.39% as we go to print, after a surprise month-end surge on Friday that we’ll discuss below.
Over the weekend, data showed that the official Chinese manufacturing PMI contracted for a second consecutive month at 49.5, flat with the figure in May and inline with expectations while the official non-manufacturing PMI came in at 50.5 in June (v/s 51.0 expected) as against a reading of 51.1 in May. But by contrast the private Caixin manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in June (v/s 51.5 expected) from 51.7 in May, the fastest pace for more than 3 years.
Before we review last week, Adrian Cox recently held a webinar on “how can you use AI and machine learning in financial decision-making?” This gave an overview on how to separate the fact from the hype, followed by our Equity Quantitative Investment Solutions team explaining how Deutsche Bank is putting AI and machine learning to work in systematic strategies. Watch the replay here. ***
Now recapping last week, new data on Friday added to the amassing evidence of inflation cooling in Q2. The headline PCE index moved sidewards in May (+0.0% as expected) month-on-month, bringing the year-on-year rate to +2.6% (as expected) from +2.7%. Core PCE decelerated to +0.1% on the month, in line with consensus but a soft +0.08% unrounded. The +2.6% year-on-year core PCE pace (also as expected) was the lowest since April 2021. The data also sent a mostly healthy signal on the US consumer, with the personal income indicator rising to 0.5% (vs 0.4% expected) while real personal spending rose from -0.1% to 0.3% (as expected).
While markets initially rallied following Friday’s encouraging data, US Treasuries ended up seeing a sizeable month-end sell-off. 10yr yields were up +11.0bps to 4.40% (and +14.0bps over the week), while 30yr yields rose +13.3bps on Friday, their sharpest daily increase since November. The move was more muted on the front-end, with 2yr yields up +4.2bps (and +2.1bps on the week). So very much one of those unexplainable month-end moves.
Month-end moves also saw US equities end the week on a soft footing, with the S&P 500 sliding -0.41% (-0.08% on the week). This actually made Friday its worst day of June, a month in which the S&P 500 was still up +3.47%. Tech stocks led Friday’s correction, with the NASDAQ down -0.71% and the Magnificent 7 down -1.41%, but these were still +0.24% and +1.55% higher on the week respectively. Nvidia was -0.36% lower on Friday and -2.39% on the week.
In Europe, fixed income struggled in the lead up to the first round of the French election that took place Sunday. The 10yr French OAT yield was up +8.9bps (and +3.0bps on Friday) to 3.30%, its highest level since mid-November. Yields were up elsewhere in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds and 10yr gilts also up by +8.9bps on the week (+4.9bps and +4.2bps on Friday respectively).
European equities underperformed over the week. The French CAC 40 fell -1.96% (and -0.68% on Friday) to its lowest level since late January. The selloff was not solely reserved for French stocks, as the STOXX 600 index also fell -0.72% (and -0.23% on Friday),though Germany’s DAX posted a gain of +0.40% (+0.14% Friday).
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Relief in Europe after the French 1st round has pared somewhat, ISM & Williams due – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 06:25 AM
- French Election 1st round saw National Rally make significant gains but the odds of another hung parliament have likely increased
- Sparking outperformance in French-related assets with OATs, CAC 40 & EUR all supported, though the magnitude of this has trimmed into another week of political uncertainty and a still challenging fiscal backdrop
- US futures generally firmer but with some slight pressure in chip names led by Nvidia
- EUR the FX outperformer weighing on DXY, USD/JPY holds above 161.00
- Fixed benchmarks in the red, initial OAT strength has faded with the OAT-Bund spread narrowing on the open to 72bps before re-widening modestly to 75bps
- Crude bid across the board, precious metals mixed while base peers track the broad tone
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Manufacturing Final PMI (June), German Prelim. CPI, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, Comments from ECB’s Lagarde & Fed’s Williams
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FRENCH ELECTION
- French Election 1st Round: National Rally makes significant gains but the odds of another hung parliament have likely increased.
- Exit polls have National Rally (RN) on 34.5%, the New Popular Front (NFP) on 29%, Macron’s Ensemble (ENS) on 21-23% and Les Republicans (LR) on 10%. When extrapolated into seat projections, there is a slight discrepancy between vendors with the forecast range for RN not encapsulating the 289 majority mark via the IFOP survey and France Televisions-Radio’s calculations; however, estimates from Elabe have an RN majority within the forecast range.
- Immediately after the exit polls dropped, PM Attal outlined a broad call to the centre and left-wing. Calling for voters to prevent RN from winning a second-round majority, to facilitate this he has pledged to stand down ENS candidates who have no chance of winning in the second round to give the non-RN candidate the best chance of victory.
- Into the second round, there are now three main points to look for: Whether Macron shows any sign of wavering from his pledge to stay as President irrespective of the result; The reception of NFP to the call from ENS to cooperate to prevent an RN outright majority, i.e. if they demand the appointment of an ENS PM or similar; Any signs of the non-RN friendly contingent of LR wavering from their position and joining forces with RN, as the addition of their 41-61 projected seats could be enough to secure an outright RN majority.
- Reminder, the second round occurs on 7th July. Exit polls are to be released from 19:00BST/14:00ET with official results emerging from some constituencies immediately but the full picture will not be known until early-Monday.
- Click for the French Election 1st round summary/analysis
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- CAC 40 (+1.8%) is the marked outperformer after the 1st round of the French legislative election, with the rally coming despite marked RN gains as the projections potentially point to increased odds of another hung parliament i.e. no RN majority. Though, initial upside has trimmed somewhat given we have another week of political uncertainty ahead and the fiscal situation remains tense and unfavourable for France.
- Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) and European generally are firmer, but have also trimmed modestly off best levels with newsflow ex-France light or not having much impact. Sectors much the same with the breakdown largely a reflection of the respective weighting of French stocks within the sectors as opposed to a broad trend.
- Stateside, futures are generally in the green (ES +0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY +0.3%) as we began a holiday shortened week that is firmly weighted towards NFP on Friday; note, NQ has slipped just into the red amid relatively pronounced pre-market pressure in Nvidia (-2.5%) though seemingly without a fresh fundamental driver.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY weighed on by the firmer EUR. Index down to a 105.42 base, holding above the 25th June low at 105.37. Docket for today is features ISM Manufacturing PMI and Fed’s Williams, the pricing component from the PMI and any commentary from Williams on PCE will be keenly sought.
- EUR the outperformer, in a relief-rally after the weekends’ French results which show that the far-right may struggle to form a Parliamentary majority, EUR/USD at a 1.0776 peak ahead of the 1.08 figure, a point it has been below since 14th June. Hefty OpEx features on today’s NY Cut.
- Cable benefitting from the encouraging risk environment and strengthening to a 1.2689 peak into this week’s UK election; however, GBP is softer vs the EUR.
- USD/JPY holding just above 161.00 with havens generally struggling in the morning’s risk environment. Last week’s multi-year peak stands at 161.28.
- Antipodeans firmer continuing the upside seen in the tail-end of last week, no real follow-through from Chinese PMIs overnight.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1265 vs exp. 7.2558 (prev. 7.1268).
- South African President Ramaphosa reappointed Enoch Godongwana as Finance Minister, while he appointed John Steenhuisien as Agriculture Minister and Ronald Lamola as Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, according to Reuters.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- OATs saw gains in excess of 20 ticks at best which alongside pressure in Bunds saw the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread narrow to 72.4bps from an 80.1bp close on Friday. However, OATs have since come under pressure and are lower by around 20 ticks as the initial relief rally dissipates, a move which has re-widened the spread somewhat to 75bps.
- Bunds pressured as they trim recent strength seen into the French election, down to a 130.55 base. No real reaction to the numerous data points from Germany, with state CPIs broadly chiming with the mainland consensus.
- Gilts weighed on in-line with the above, at an initial low point of 97.14 which printed around the Final Manufacturing PMI that was revised lower and provided some support. Though, internal commentary factored on the hawkish side and has seen the benchmark slip to a fresh 97.07 base.
- US Treasuries are directionally in-fitting with other core players; just off a 109-15 base but remain towards the low-end of a 10 tick range
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude bid across the board given the broader risk appetite and weaker USD. Crude-specific newsflow has been light this morning but as the US hurricane season nears, the desk is keeping an eye on Hurricane Beryl.
- WTI August trades within a USD 81.38-82.29/bbl range, Brent September sits in a USD 84.54-85.74/bbl parameter.
- Saudi Aramco’s strategic gas expansion reportedly progresses with USD 25bln of contract awards.
- Mixed trade across precious metals with spot gold biding time ahead of this week’s macro risk events whilst spot silver is underpinned by the softer Dollar.
- Base metals are mostly firmer, though off best, with the softer USD and risk tone assisting, though the magnitude of gains has trimmed alongside a moderation in broader risk appetite.
- NHC says Hurricane Beryl is taking aim at the windward islands, with life-threatening winds and storm surge expected to begin this morning.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- German North Rhine-Westphalia State CPI YY (Jun) 2.2% (Prev. 2.5%); Core 2.9% (prev. 3.2%). Overall, the state CPIs broadly chime with consensus for the mainland figures which look for a slight moderation in the Y/Y and slight uptick in the M/M.
- EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Jun) 45.8 vs. Exp. 45.6 (Prev. 45.6)
- German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 43.5 vs. Exp. 43.4 (Prev. 43.4)
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.9 (Prev. 51.4)
- UK Mortgage Approvals (May) 59.991k vs. Exp. 59.9k (Prev. 61.14k, Rev. 60.821k); Lending 1.212B GB vs. Exp. 0.9B GB (Prev. 2.412B GB, Rev. 2.229B GB)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- European Commission President von der Leyen said European companies are signing deals or MOUs worth over EUR 40bln at the Egypt-EU investment conference, according to Reuters.
- Austria’s far-right Freedom Party chief Kickl said they are forming a new political alliance with Orban’s Fidesz in Hungary and Babis’s Czech ANO party, according to Reuters.
- The Sunday Times newspaper endorsed the Labour Party for the upcoming UK election.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President Biden’s family is urging him to stay in the race and keep fighting despite last week’s disastrous debate performance, according to NYT.
- EU plans to charge Meta Platforms (META) over its ‘pay or consent’ model, FT reports citing sources; regulators are concerned the model offers consumers a misleading choice, potentially forcing consent to personal data tracking for ads due to financial barriers. Penalties could reach 10% of global turnover, rising to 20% for repeat violations.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US proposed new language in an effort to reach a Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal, according to Reuters.
- Hamas officials said there is no progress in ceasefire talks with Israel but it is still ready to deal positively with any ceasefire proposal that ends the war in Gaza, according to Reuters.
- Iraq’s Islamic Resistance reportedly hit an Israeli port with a drone, according to IRNA.
- Israel’s Finance Minister extended the waiver allowing cooperation between Israeli and Palestinian banks in the West Bank for four months, according to a spokesperson cited by Reuters.
- Iran’s UN mission said an obliterating war will ensue if Israel attacks Lebanon and that all options including the full involvement of resistance fronts are on the table.
- Iran will hold a presidential election run-off on July 5th as no candidate secured 50% of votes.
- Israeli Media reports “The end of the war in its current form within 10 days”, via Sky News Arabia citing Channel 13.
OTHER
- Russia took control of the settlement of Shumy in Ukraine, while Russian forces also took over Spirne and Novooleksandrivka in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, according to RIA citing the Defence Ministry. It was separately reported that a Ukrainian drone attack killed five people in Russia’s borderline Kursk region, while Russia’s Emergency Ministry said four of its employees were injured in Ukraine’s shelling of Donetsk.
- North Korea condemned ‘Freedom Edge’ joint military drills by the US, South Korea and Japan as provocation, while it said it will make an important announcement and will protect regional peace with an aggressive and overwhelming response, according to KCNA. It was also reported that North Korea conducted a missile launch of a short-range ballistic missile and another ballistic missile, according to Yonhap citing the South Korean military.
- US military raised the alert level of several bases in Europe to its second-highest level, according to the Times of Israel citing multiple American media outlets.
CRYPTO
- A session of gains for BTC & ETH, which have surpassed USD 63.5k and USD 3.5k respectively to the upside.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the new quarter somewhat varied as participants digested key data releases and markets braced for a busy week ahead culminating in the latest NFP report on Friday.
- ASX 200 was led lower by underperformance in tech amid headwinds from firmer yields although the index was off worst levels owing to resilience in mining stocks.
- Nikkei 225 gained at the open amid initial currency weakness although some of the gains were then faded as participants digested a mixed BoJ Tankan survey.
- Shanghai Comp. swung between gains and losses with price action choppy in early trade after mixed PMI data from China which showed official Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory and Non-Manufacturing PMI missed estimates, but Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts to print its highest in three years. Meanwhile, Hong Kong markets were shut for a holiday which also meant the absence of Stock Connect flows.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Indonesia is to impose safeguard duties of 100% to 200% on imports ranging from footwear to ceramics, while it mainly imports apparel and clothing accessories from China, Vietnam and Bangladesh, according to Nikkei.
- India’s government source said it is monitoring cheap Chinese imports, while India’s steel ministry is in talks with the commerce ministry over rising imports and the industry has sought a probe.
- China’s Vice Premier is to hold a symposium related to foreign investments on Monday, according to State Media; says China will further expand market access and break unreasonable limit for foreign investments.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 49.5 vs Exp. 49.5 (Prev. 49.5); Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jun) 50.5 vs Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.1)
- Chinese Composite PMI (Jun) 50.5 (Prev. 51.0)
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun) 51.8 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.7)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q2) 13.0 vs. Exp. 12.0 (Prev. 11.0); Outlook (Q2) 14.0 vs. Exp. 13.0 (Prev. 10.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q2) 33.0 vs. Exp. 33.0 (Prev. 34.0); Outlook (Q2) 27.0 vs. Exp. 31.0 (Prev. 27.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex Estimate (Q2) 11.1% vs. Exp. 13.9% (Prev. 4.0%)
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE
Le Pen Is Mightier: Conservative National Rally Crushes Macron, Socialists In 1st Round Of French Election
SUNDAY, JUN 30, 2024 – 04:45 PM
As expected, Le Pen’s conservative (or in the world’s of the liberal media, “Far Right”) National Rally (RN) party won the first round of France’s parliamentary election on Sunday, exit polls showed, but the final result will depend on several days of horsetrading before next week’s run-off.
The RN was seen winning around 34% of the vote, exit polls from Ipsos, Ifop, OpinionWay and Elabe showed. That was ahead of both far-left and centrist rivals, including President Emmanuel Macron’s Together alliance, whose bloc was seen winning a paltry 20.5%-23%, a far cry from his crushing victory several years ago. The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily assembled left-wing coalition, was projected to win around 29% of the vote, the exit polls showed.
France, Ifop-Fiducial exit poll: Snap national parliament election RN and allies-ID: 34.2% NFP-LEFT|G/EFA|S&D: 29.1% Ensemble-RE: 21.5% LR/Divers droite-EPP: 10% Far-left candidates-*: 1.3% ➤ https://europeelects.eu/france #législatives2024 #ElectionsLegislatives2024
·
338.3K Views
The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the anti-immigrant, eurosceptic RN will be able to form a government to “cohabit” with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday’s run-off.
The RN’s chances of winning power next week will depend on the political dealmaking made by its rivals over the coming days. In the past, centre-right and centre-left parties have teamed up to keep the RN from power, but that dynamic, known as the “republican front,” is less certain than ever.
If no candidate reaches 50% in the first round, the top two contenders automatically qualify for the second round, as well as all those with 12.5% of registered voters. In the run-off, whoever wins the most votes take the constituency.
According to Reuters, the high turnout on Sunday suggests France is heading for a record number of three-way run-offs. These generally benefit the RN much more than two-way contests, experts say.
Sure enough, the horsetrading began almost immediately on Sunday night. In a written statement to the press, Macron called on voters to rally behind candidates who are “clearly republican and democratic”, which, based on his recent declarations, would exclude candidates from the RN and from the hard-left France Unbowed (LFI) party. The problem, of course, is that Macron’s party was crushed in the recent European parliamentary elections precisely because the people have had enough with “clearly republican and democratic” puppets of the World Economic Forum and want actual change.
LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon said the second-placed NFP alliance will withdraw all its candidates who came third in the first round.”Our guideline is simple and clear: not a single more vote for the National Rally,” he said. It is, however, unlikely that many will care what the French socialists want: after all, last week the French socialist leftist alliance said it would raise the top marginal income tax rate to 90% if it were to take over the government.
Meanwhile, Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old RN party president, said he was ready to be prime minister – if his party wins an absolute majority. That’s right, a 28 year old kid may soon be a prime minister of the 2nd largest European economy. He has ruled out trying to form a minority government and neither Macron nor the NFP will form an alliance with him.
“I will be a “cohabitation” Prime Minister, respectful of the constitution and of the office of President of the Republic, but uncompromising about the policies we will implement,” he said.
While the RN is seen winning the most seats in the National Assembly, only one of the pollsters – Elabe – had the party winning an absolute majority of 289 seats in the run-off. Experts say that seat projections after first-round votes can be highly inaccurate, and especially so in this election.
Voter participation was high compared with previous parliamentary elections, illustrating the political fervour Macron aroused with his stunning decision to call a parliamentary vote after the RN trounced his party in European Parliament elections earlier this month.
His decision plunged France into political uncertainty, sent shockwaves around Europe and prompted a sell-off of French assets on financial markets.
A longtime pariah, the RN is now closer to power than it has ever been. Le Pen has sought to clean up the image of a party known for racism and antisemitism, a tactic that has worked amid voter anger at Macron, the high cost of living and growing concerns over immigration.
At 1500 GMT, turnout was nearly 60%, compared with 39.42% two years ago – the highest comparable turnout figures since the 1986 legislative vote, Ipsos France’s research director Mathieu Gallard said.
In short, the people have had enough and they finally want to be heard.
end
FRANCE
France has a huge socialism problem which causes its economy to be stagnabt
(Dr Lacalle)
France’s Problem Is Not The Elections, It Is Socialism – A Warning For All…
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 01:20 PM
Following the European elections, the French credit default swap has soared to a post-2020 record of 39 points. Many commentators blame the rise of the National Front for market turmoil, which has sent all euro area spreads higher. However, none of this would have happened if France’s debt was low, finances were strong, and the euro area economies enjoyed healthy economic growth.
France is the world’s poster child for statism.
The same statism that some politicians seek to impose on the United States has economically devastated France, a wonderful country with excellent human capital and outstanding entrepreneurs.
France never had austerity. It has the world’s largest government relative to the size of the economy. Government spending to GDP exceeds 58%, the highest in the world. Unions are exceedingly powerful. Their ability to organize paralyzing strikes gives them a level of economic power that far exceeds their actual representation. France’s state is so large that the public sector employs 5.3 million people (21.1% of the active population), a ratio of civil servants to inhabitants of 70.9/1,000, according to Eurostat. France has one of the highest taxation systems in the OECD. In France, income tax and employer social security contributions combine to account for 82% of the total tax wedge, according to the OECD. Corporate tax rates in France are also extremely high, at 26.5%, with companies with profits of more than €500,000 paying a rate of 27.5%. The labor market regulations in France are so restrictive that the number of companies with forty-nine employees is 2.4 times higher than those with fifty, primarily due to the significant burdens businesses face once they reach the fifty-employee threshold. According to Bloomberg, a 50-employee company must create “three worker councils, introduce profit sharing, and submit restructuring plans to the councils if the company decides to fire workers for economic reasons”.
If you are a Keynesian statist, you must be salivating.
The above-mentioned characteristics point to a perfect socialist society, an enormous state, extremely high and progressive taxes, and an enormous social network. It should be the optimal economy. Or not?
Well, no. France has been in economic stagnation for decades; it has not had a balanced budget since the late 1970s, and discontent is now the norm. Businesses and taxpayers have grown weary of the drain on their resources, and the subsidy system has spawned a group of dependent and irate citizens who feel left behind and struggle to comprehend their situation. The hailed social state has failed because the massive subsidy and spending machine has ignored economic calculation, making the country a nightmare for job and wealth creators, as well as a nightmare for those looking for a social net that provides opportunities. France has shown that the promise of socialist redistribution only creates stagnation. Despite its claims of extremely low inequality, at 31.5% Gini coefficient, it is one of the European countries with the highest level of discontent, insecurity, and entrenched impoverishment among citizens rotting in ghettos.
Socialism always disregards economic calculation and the need to promote growth and wealth to make progress. When maintaining a bloated state and redistribution become the only objectives, the economy stagnates, and everyone is angry.
The problem with France extends beyond these elections. Voters have the choice of deciding between statism, more statism, or outright communism. Fascinating.
Decades of agonising tax hikes and misguided immigration policies, which have alienated even those admitted into the country, have left taxpayers exhausted and law-abiding citizens terrified. The economy is experiencing low or no growth and declining productivity growth, resulting in weakened real wage growth, heightened insecurity, and crippling taxes. What are you reading in the media? “The threat is the far right.”. No. The threat is statism.
According to Bloomberg, none of the three possible alternatives to the government will decrease the debt or curb the deficit. None of them will tackle the government’s bloated size. Two want even more state control of the economy, while one wants lower taxes as the only evident pro-growth policy. However, those tax cuts are unlikely to attract much activity when administrative and bureaucratic burdens continue to weigh on the economy.
France has the potential to be a global economic leader. It has the talent, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the business expertise to create global leaders. However, the system simply expels them from the country. Many of France’s brightest have emigrated to other nations where they can thrive. Unfortunately, the political elite are extremely happy keeping the so-called state champions filled with politicians and a small group of crony sectors that are too afraid to raise their voices against the bloated state because they could suffer the wrath of government. A select breed of intellectuals and brave businesspeople are trying to change the system from within, and unfortunately, they are failing.
The lesson we can learn from France is that trying socialism never works and once the disastrous results are evident, it is almost impossible to correct the problem. France is an enormous problem in the eurozone, and the ECB cannot disguise it. But do not think this is a unique example. France is now at the tip of the iceberg. The disastrous Next Generation EU Fund and a deaf European Commission are currently covering up the much worse structural issues in Spain and other euro area nations.
France shows why no one should try socialism. The euro area demonstrates why no one should imitate the statist model that French politicians impose.
GERMANY/CHINA
Due to China’s changing behaviour, Germany has now sifted its China strategy to one of rival
(Pan EpochTimes)
Germany Has Shifted China Strategy Amid Beijing’s Changing Behavior: German Diplomat
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Aaron Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The Chinese regime’s changing behavior toward the international community has forced Germany to revisit its China policy, according to a top German diplomat.
Speaking during a foreign policy event at the Hudson Institute on June 28, Director-General for Foreign Affairs Thomas Bagger, the state secretary of the German Foreign Ministry, stated that Germany’s position on China, based on its tripartite approach—as a partner, competitor, and systemic rival—has shifted to rival.
“It’s quite clear that the emphasis has shifted from a focus on partnership and cooperation to more competition and even more rivalry,” Mr. Bagger said.
Mr. Bagger noted that Germany is now changing its approach to China, focusing on de-risking and reducing dependence on Beijing, particularly after the COVID pandemic. This includes reducing reliance on China for medical equipment, basic medical supplies, and raw materials for technology. He acknowledged that decoupling China “would hurt our economy tremendously.”
Mr. Bagger said Germany is being open with Beijing about its changing behavior. “China’s approach to us, to its neighbors, to the international arena has changed in a way that forces us to revisit our own China policy. This is a reaction to your behavior,” he said.
Last year, Germany unveiled its first-ever Strategy on China, marking its strategic shift to reduce economic dependence on China. The strategy provides a framework to enhance fair cooperation with China in line with German values and interests.
During the event, Mr. Bagger noted that unlike the United States, which considers China a geopolitical challenge, Germany has its own approach to China.
“We’re not America’s poodle. We may agree with the Americans on many of these issues, especially on [the] South China Sea, Chinese behavior that needs to respect international law, but not on everything,” he said.
Mr. Bagger also warned that the Chinese regime’s support for Russia’s military efforts in its war with Ukraine, hurts German and European core interests, and could damage Beijing’s reputation.
“If and when China continues to violate Europe’s core interest in security on the European continent, this will have an increasing cost on China,” he said.
“If you continue to support Russia’s war effort against Ukraine, that will have consequences also for our bilateral and European-Chinese relationship.”
Complicated Trading Partner
China has been Germany’s top trading partner Germany since 2015. However, in the first quarter of this year, the United States replaced China in the top position. Germany’s trade with the United States—exports and imports combined—totaled 63 billion euros ($68 billion) from January to March, while the figure for China was just less than 60 billion euros, the data showed.
In 2023, China was Germany’s top trading partner for the eighth year in a row, with volumes reaching 253 billion euros ($27o billion), although that was only a few hundred million ahead of the United States.
On June 12, the European Union announced it will impose 38.1 percent tariffs on imported Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) starting July after an eight-month investigation. The bloc accused Beijing of unfair subsidization. This move follows Washington’s decision last month to increase tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25 percent to 100 percent.
However, Germany opposed the EU tariff hike, as its major automakers, like BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, fear they could be hit by China’s retaliatory tariffs. These companies have massive automobile production plants in the country that benefit from tax incentives and Beijing’s subsidy policies.
Meanwhile, business confidence among European companies in China has declined since last year, according to a recent survey by the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China in its report “European Business in China Business Confidence Survey 2024.” A record 68 percent of companies reported that business has become more challenging in the world’s second-largest economy.
The survey found that European companies in China are experiencing uncertainties instead of enjoying robust recovery as expected. The report states that China’s structural issues—such as slowing demand, increasing overcapacity, and an ongoing downturn in the property sector—as well as market access and regulatory barriers, keep hitting European companies.
The survey noted that the strategies these companies use to adapt to China’s business environment could create a negative cycle for China, worsening the country’s economic difficulties.
Reuters contributed to this report.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF engages terrorists in Shejaia as air force eliminates 20 more from above
The Israel Air Force struck many targets, eliminating terrorists and demolishing manufacturing facilities and warehouses.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 1, 2024 13:50
IDF troops of the 98th Division operated in the area of Shejaia in the Gaza Strip and eliminated numerous terrorists in close-quarters combat, the military said on Monday.
In addition, troops carried out raids in which they found many weapons.
The military also noted that the Israel Air Force (IAF) struck many targets, eliminating about 20 terrorists and demolishing manufacturing facilities and warehouses.
Nahal troops operate in Rafah
In Rafah, forces of the Nahal Brigade, under the command of the 162nd Division, identified a terrorist who launched an anti-tank missile towards them. He was subsequently struck by an IAF aircraft.
The IDF added that on Sunday, in central Gaza, troops of the 99th Division identified a terrorist who had carried out a launch towards them.
He, too, was eliminated by an IAF aircraft, the IDF noted. No injuries were reported among the forces during the incident.
ISRAEL/IRAN/HEZBOLLAH
Iran Threatens Israel With ‘Obliterating War’ If It Attacks Lebanon
SATURDAY, JUN 29, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Iran’s mission to the United Nations has put Israel and the world on notice, saying that if Israel launches an all-out war against Hezbollah in Lebanon the whole region will burn.
A Friday statement from Iran’s ambassador warned the UN that any “full-scale military aggression” in Lebanon against Hezbollah will mean that “an obliterating war will ensue.”
The Iranian statement continued by emphasizing that “all options, including the full involvement of all resistance fronts, are on the table” in a statement posted to X.
By “resistance fronts” Tehran means the militias it supports in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen will also ramp up their military activities. On a few occasions, Iraqi Shia militias have launched missiles and drones against southern Israel, as have the Houthis, with limited effect.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has acknowledged this week that a “seven front war” could open up, in reference to all of Iran’s proxies across the region.
For years already, Israeli jets have been regularly attacking ‘Iranian assets’ inside Damascus, also in a continued effort to weaken Assad, despite the presence of Russia’s military primarily in the northwest coastal region.
Israel has meanwhile continued to pound Hezbollah positions in south Lebanon, amid continued fears of a bigger war at any moment. The US has even sent amphibious military ships closer to Israel and Lebanon in the Eastern Mediterranean to be ready to evacuate Americans if a bigger conflict ensues.
The Israeli Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper wrote Saturday, “In the past few hours, warplanes attacked several Hezbollah targets, including a military site for the organisation in the Zabqin area, two operational infrastructure sites in the Khiam area, and a Hezbollah building in the al-Adissa [Odaisseh] area.”
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah has told Israel and its allies that a war with no limits will ensue if Israel attempts to invade southern Lebanon. Some Israeli officials fear that the IDF could be stretched too thin if this happens, considering it’s still in the thick of anti-Hamas Gaza operations in the south.
War Monitor
@WarMonitors
Proud Semite || Breaking News || Geopolitics || Backup:
Hezb-Allah published footage of them striking the Barkat Risha site of the Israeli enemy army on the southern Lebanese border
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71.3K Views
Most analysts agree that Hezbollah is far more capable a paramilitary and guerilla force than Hamas, or any other Iran-linked group in the region for that matter. In the 2006 Lebanon war, there were reports that IRGC operatives were on the ground in Lebanon assisting Hezbollah.
END
CYPRUS/UK LEBANON/ISRAEL
UK Military Planes Making Secretive Flights To Lebanon From Cyprus
BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, JUN 29, 2024 – 09:20 AM
The UK has sent over 80 military transport planes to the Lebanese capital of Beirut since the start of Israel’s war on Gaza nine months ago, Declassified UK reported on Friday.
All the flights have gone from the UK’s massive Akrotiri airbase on the nearby island of Cyprus, long a staging post for UK bombing missions in West Asia. Declassified UK notes that the number of UK military flights to Beirut has risen dramatically in recent months. The group tracked 25 flights in April and May and 14 so far in June.
Flights from the UK base take around 45 minutes to reach Beirut, which Israel has increasingly threatened to bomb in a possible full-scale war with the Lebanese resistance movement, Hezbollah.
The Ministry of Defense declined to disclose the number of UK military flights to Lebanon since the start of the war on October 7 or their purpose. A defense source told Declassified UK thatthe flights “have been primarily for the purpose of facilitating senior military engagement” with the Lebanese army.
But it is widely assumed the planes are carrying weapons to Beirut to arm anti-Hezbollah militias. The US, UK, and Israel would presumably use these militias to attack Hezbollah from within the country in the case of an Israeli invasion from the south.
Declassified UK notes that nearly every Royal Air Force flight to Lebanon has been the Voyager KC mark 2, which can carry a payload of 45 tons and 291 personnel or provide air-to-air refueling. Another flight involved a vast C-17 cargo plane.
Israeli threats to invade Lebanon have accelerated in tandem with the increase in flights. Israeli military leaders have increasingly warned of a Lebanon campaign to push Hezbollah away from the border and past the Litani River.
Last week, the Israeli army approved “operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon,” and the US pledged to support Israel with weapons if a full-scale war breaks out.
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned of using its massive rocket and missile arsenal to hit targets across Israel in a “total war” if Tel Aviv decides to launch an invasion.
Nasrallah also threatened Cyprus, noting its role as a US, UK, and Israeli staging ground. “The Cypriot government must be warned that opening Cypriot airports and bases for the Israeli enemy to target Lebanon means that the Cypriot government has become part of the war and the resistance [Hezbollah] will deal with it as part of the war,” he said.
Nasrallah’s threat appeared to include the Akrotiri base, which lies in territory retained by the UK when Cyprus gained independence in 1960. The territory now hosts vast military and intelligence hubs for Britain and the US, Declassified UKnotes.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
ISRAEL/SERBIA
Deadly Attack On Israeli Embassy By Crossbow-Armed Terrorist
SATURDAY, JUN 29, 2024 – 07:15 PM
A bizarre attack on Israel’s embassy in the Serbian capital of Belgrade has unfolded Saturday, and ended in the death of the attacker, and a wounded security guard now fighting for his life.
Serbia’s interior ministry is calling the incident a terrorist attack which involved a man armed with a crossbow shooting a police officer, wounding him in the neck, before the officer shot the assailant dead. Authorities are in the aftermath looking at links to Islamic extremism.
The Serbian government statement indicated the officer who had been protecting the embassy “used a weapon in self-defense to shoot the attacker, who died as a result of his injuries.”
A bolt was fired from the crossbow, and lodged in the officer’s neck. He was still conscious but described as in life-threatening condition upon being transported to the hospital.
Authorities are describing that the assault was likely motivated by Islamic terror. According to a statement:
“There are some indications that [those arrested] are already known to security services and we are talking about the Wahhabi organization, but that is not confirmed,” Dačić said, referring to a strict school of Islam.
The officer was in a guard house and the attacker had approached him several times asking him where a museum was. He carried a bag from which at one point he took the crossbow and shot the guard, Dačić said.
Serbia has maintained close relations with Israel and has even been supplying weapons to Tel Aviv throughout the course of the ongoing Gaza operations.
For example, Middle East Eye has documented:
The Israeli newspaper Haaretz and Balkan Insight recently revealed that Belgrade was still exporting large volumes of weapons and ammunition to Israel, and ramped up exports this year amid the current war on Gaza.
Both publications reported that Serbia exported at least €16.3m ($17.1m) worth of weapons to Israel through Israeli military planes as well as some civilian aircraft using Greek airspace, possibly also carrying crucial 155mm artillery rounds, produced by the Serbian state company Krusik.
: An attacker, who attacked a police officer guarding the Israeli embassy in #Belgrade, was shot and killed by the Security Forces. The perpetrator was seemingly armed with a PSE Viper SS pistol handheld crossbow and a knife.
·
15.9K Views
Israeli officials have meanwhile feared that the longer the Gaza operation persists, the greater chance of Israeli embassies and consulates abroad coming under physical attack.
Already there have been been major anti-Israel protests throughout the world, including in front of consulates abroad. However, this is the first time a weapon like a crossbow has been used and resulted in a live fire incident.
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
If you take this crap, you will probably get real problems like heart attacks and cancer.
Please do not take this vaccine
(zerohedge)
CDC Recommends New COVID-19 Vaccines For Nearly All Americans
SATURDAY, JUN 29, 2024 – 03:10 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on June 27 recommended forthcoming COVID-19 vaccines for virtually all Americans.
“CDC recommends everyone ages 6 months and older receive an updated 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccine to protect against the potentially serious outcomes of COVID-19 this fall and winter whether or not they have ever previously been vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine,” the agency said in a statement.
The COVID-19 vaccines now available, which are also broadly recommended, target the XBB.1.5 strain. But observational data indicate they provide short-lived protection against COVID-19 infection and hospitalization.
U.S. Food and Drug Administration officials, acting on advice from their advisers, recently directed vaccine manufacturers to produce COVID-19 vaccines with updated formulations.
Updated vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna will target the KP.2 variant, while an updated shot from Novavax will target the JN.1 variant.
The updated formulations are expected to be available in September.
CDC advisers earlier Thursday unanimously advised the CDC to recommend the forthcoming vaccines to virtually all Americans, even though no clinical efficacy or safety data are available for them.
Data from animal testing suggest that the vaccines trigger higher levels of antibodies than the shots currently available, manufacturers said previously.
CDC advisers considered a risk-based recommendation that would only say certain groups receive one of the vaccines but ultimately opted for what is known as a universal recommendation.
Dr. Jamie Loehr, one of the members, said before the vote that the cost-effectiveness of vaccinating young people, who are generally at little risk from COVID-19, had him leaning towards a risk-based approach. He changed his mind, though, after listening to a presentation from a CDC researcher.
Dr. Denise Jamieson, another member, said that members should not “get too caught up in cost-effectiveness currently.” She said, “If we compare it to other vaccine-preventable diseases it seems like a really good investment.”
Each dose of a new shot could cost up to $130, according to estimates presented during the meeting.
Pooled effectiveness estimates from studies of the currently available vaccines, which target the XBB strain, and the last slate of shots, which were bivalent, found that effectiveness against hospitalization due to COVID-19 was below 50 percent, the original threshold laid out by regulators.
Researchers with the CDC and other institutions have also found the protection wanes over time, one reason U.S. officials have turned the COVID-19 vaccine model into a once-a-year update similar to the influenza vaccination program.
Many Americans took the original COVID-19 vaccines but most have opted against receiving the newer shots. As of May 11, just 14.4 percent of children and 22.5 percent of adults have received one of the currently available COVID-19 vaccines, according to CDC surveys, which also found that many doctors have stopped recommending the shots because they’re focused on promoting other vaccines and worry recommending COVID-19 vaccination could increase hesitancy among patients to receiving the other vaccines.
Experts said in Thursday’s meeting that the message needs to be that people need another shot.
“We have to keep saying that over and over and over again—you need this year’s vaccine to be protected against this year’s strain of the virus,” Carol Hayes, who represents the American College of Nurse-Midwives as a liaison to the CDC panel, said during the session.
The CDC estimated that up to 116,000 hospitalizations from COVID-19 will be prevented over the next year with universal vaccine recommendations, assuming an initial 75 percent effectiveness against hospitalization.
The effectiveness was projected in certain scenarios to drop to 50 percent after three months, the CDC said.
The KP.2 strain is the dominant strain in the United States as of May 25, according to CDC data. The closely related KP.3 strain, and the JN.1 variant, are also causing a number of cases.
Modeling through June 22 projects the rise of a new strain called LB.1.
A spokesperson for the CDC told The Epoch Times recently that LB.1 “has the potential to infect some people more easily based on a single deletion in a spike protein“ but ”there is currently no evidence that LB.1 causes more severe disease.”
Special thanks to Robert H for sending this important paper to us;
A Systematic REVIEW of Autopsy findings in deaths after covid-19 vaccination – ScienceDirect
Shocking
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0379073824001968
.
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
BC premier John Horgan has 3rd cancer; UK soccer great John Hansen out of hospital (“illness”), Jon Holmes, Adele Roberts have cancer; Greek pol Marios Karoyian, 63, recovering from heart attack
US “Army linked Covid soldier’s heart condition to Covid vaccine”; Mexican judge has heart attack during online hearing; referee collapses during Canada-Peru soccer game; & more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERJUN 30 |
UNITED STATES
Army linked soldier’s heart condition to Covid vaccine, former CBS News journalist reports
June 24, 2024
Washington, D.C. — The U.S. Army and National Guard acknowledged a soldier’s “debilitating heart condition” is connected to the COVID-19 vaccine, according to a new report by former CBS reporter Catherine Herridge. Army National Guard Specialist Karoline Stancik, 24, has reportedly racked up over $70,000 in medical debt after being hospitalized for heart complications. She suffered her first heart attack after receiving the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. An Army memo about Stancik’s situation acquired by Herridge shows she had been diagnosed with postural orthostatic tachycardia syndrome, or “POTS.” Stancik described having intense adverse reactions to her vaccinations, including high heart rate, neuropathic pain and difficulty breathing. She was released from active duty in 2022, costing her medical benefits and a salary. The effects she experienced were so detrimental to her health, Stancik said, that she considered suicide. She now requires a pacemaker and heart surgery. An Army spokesperson reportedly told Herridge that Stancik could have remained on active duty while receiving treatment. She denied having ever been counseled about this option. Neither the Pentagon nor Moderna responded to a request for comment from TND Monday.
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Referee collapsed during Canada-Peru soccer game
June 25, 2024
Kansas City, Kansas – A horrific scene unfolded at Children’s Mercy Park on June 25 when an official collapsed during a game between Canada and Peru. Assistant referee Luis Ventura collapsed in stoppage time of the first half and had to be tended by medical personnel. The match came to a screeching halt when players noticed the official laying face down on the field. One of the players turned Ventura over and motioned for medical personnel to come to his aid. After being tended to by medical personnel for a moment, he was taken away on a stretcher. At this time it’s unclear what happened and Fox Sports decided against showing a replay of the official collapsing. Temperatures in Kansas City reached over 90 degrees on Tuesday afternoon and Ventura was reportedly working in the sunny side of the stadium.
Moment roller coaster riders near the top forced to climb down amid evacuation
June 25, 2024
The Giant Dipper at the Santa Cruz Beach Boardwalk in California was temporarily halted mid-ride on Sunday because of a medical emergency, according to a spokesperson. A rider suffered the medical episode inside the Giant Dipper station, and the evacuation was not owed to the ride operation. The rider who had the emergency was transported to a hospital, while all guests were evacuated safely. One witness in line for the Giant Dipper wrote on Facebook that a rider experienced an unknown attack as one of the trains was making its way to the start, the Daily Mail reported. Meanwhile, the other train was approaching the top and the ride was halted to prevent it from hitting the stopped train.
No age reported.
CANADA
Former B.C. premier John Horgan diagnosed with cancer for 3rd time
June 25, 2024
Former B.C. premier John Horgan is currently in hospital receiving treatment for cancer, Health Minister Adrian Dix said Tuesday (June 25). Dix said during a news conference in Surrey that he’s heard news that Horgan, his “friend of a very, very long time,” has a new diagnosis of cancer. Horgan, who became Canada’s ambassador to Germany in November 2023, is currently on leave from his role following his latest diagnosis. It is the 65-year-old’s third time battling cancer. Horgan announced he had throat cancer in early November 2021 after having undergone a throat biopsy to diagnose the disease the week prior. He completed treatment in January 2022. He had bladder cancer in his 40s. Horgan left B.C. politics in March 2023, after announcing months prior that he would be stepping down ahead of the 2024 provincial election.
This ultrarunner was diagnosed with cancer 2 years ago, but didn’t let it stop him. This summer, he’ll run over 100 miles through Death Valley
June 27, 2024
Ray Zahab has run hundreds of miles across deserts and the Arctic, completed numerous ultramarathons, walked to the South Pole, and even starred in a film Matt Damon produced about Zahab’s 111-day trek across the African desert with friends. But two years ago, the 55-year-old Canadian adventurer started feeling exhausted all the time. It turned out that the ultrarunner’s lack of energy had nothing to do with his age. His doctor diagnosed him with lymphoma, a form of blood cancer.
MEXICO
Federal judge suffers heart attack during online hearing
June 19, 2024
During a hearing that was held online virtually, a federal judge suffered a heart attack, and in a video it is observed how she keels over and falls from her chair, and the staff who was near her helps her. The hearing was held last Friday, June 14 and was taking place virtually and was attended by Miriam Núñez Corona, who is a judge at the Federal Criminal Justice Center in the state of Guanajuato.
No age reported.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Biden, Obama, Garland, Biden’s Justice department, crooked judges, lawyers, deepstate are sending Steve Bannon to jail Monday July 1st, Monday coming; why? Because they cannot beat Trump & so must
silence all of Trump’s supporters…we must rally around Steve and pray for him…I know him, he is among the smartest best people I know, true patriot…we will get pay back, we will punish all the
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 29 |
wrongs, there will be lots of retribution and vengeance in time, legal I should add but all they do will be returned in kind…each and everything. But how could Garland brush off a supoena and not get jailed?
END
This is why we America (& Canada) are in trouble! Look at this freak show Sam Brinton, look at Rachel Levine still a top post in Biden, & as if that is not bad enough, we now have new associate
communications director, Tyler Cherry. A cross-dressing freakshow to lead the WH communications. Word is when Biden admin officials attend meetings, serious people leave to step outside to laugh
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUN 29 |
Then return after 15 minutes.
This here is the new White House Associate Communications Director. Do you ‘get’ why we are in trouble. You mean to tell me if you looked around America, you could find no one else for these senior roles but these ding-a-lings, these obviously mentally troubled people? This represents America? Today? No wonder our youth are so messed up. These are the freaks that push this transgender shit, that psychotic shit.
REMEMBER also Sam Brinton. ‘Biden appointed Brinton to a top Energy Department position: Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Office of Nuclear Energy.’
Turned out he was stealing women clothing and word is he was vetted for Biden by the same people who are vetting illegals at the border and the actual ones who vetted the 8 ISIS terrorists now arrested after coming into USA illegally at the Southern border…
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
| … |
READ MORE…
LATEST NEWS:
Lara Trump Reveals Only Two Supporters Per Candidate Allowed at CNN Debate! – EVOL
Read more…
Mitch McConnell Describes Biden as a ‘Good Guy’ Before Presidential Debate – EVOL
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Nancy Pelosi Ahead of First Presidential Debate: ‘Biden Is Reducing Inflation’ – EVOL
Read more…
Tennessee Police Chief Indicted for Falsifying Official Election Documents – EVOL
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Former National Intelligence Director James Clapper: ‘I Have No Regrets for Signing Letter Dismissing Hunter Biden Laptop’ – EVOL
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CNN to Implement Two-Minute Delay for Presidential Debate Instead of the Usual Seven Seconds – EVOL
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NEW: CNN Will Delay Live Debate 1-2 Minutes, Possibly Allowing Network To Edit Biden’s Blunders – EVOL
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REPORT: Press Corps Asks CNN For Debate Access Because ‘Medical Emergency’ Could Occur – EVOL
Read more…
SLAY NEWS
| he latest reports from Slay News |
| WEF Pushes Plans to Seize Control of Oxygen SupplyWorld Economic Forum (WEF) members have begun discussing plans to seize control of all elements of nature that humans rely on for survival such as food, water, and even the oxygen supply.READ MORE |
| Australian Government Has Been Hiding Deadly Covid Shot Side Effects since 2021The Australian government discovered in 2021 that Covid mRNA shots carried a high risk of causing deadly side effects but officials chose to keep the information hidden from the public, bombshell new documents have revealed.READ MORE |
| Biden’s Favorite News Show, MSNBC’s ‘Morning Joe,’ Calls for Him to Step DownThe hosts of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” have called for Democrat President Joe Biden to step down as POTUS and bow out of the critical presidential race.READ MORE |
| Vatican: ‘Climate Crisis Is Bringing the Whole of Humanity to Its Knees’The Catholic Church is continuing to advance fearmongering about an alleged “climate crisis.”READ MORE |
| MSNBC Hosts Receiving ‘Panicked’ Texts from Democrats over Biden’s Debate Performance: ‘What’s Wrong with Him?!’MSNBC hosts revealed that they have been receiving “panicked” texts from Democrats who have been melting down after watching President Joe Biden’s trainwreck debate performance.READ MORE |
| NFL Pro Randall Cobb & Family ‘Lucky to Be Alive’ after Home EV Charger Catches FireNFL star Randall Cobb and his family are “lucky to be alive” after they escaped their burning home, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Supreme Court Rejects Review of Idaho Abortion Law Due to Procedural ConcernsThe United States Supreme Court has dismissed a case that would carve out an exception to an Idaho abortion restriction based on federal rules.READ MORE |
| Anti-Trump Judge Juan Merchan Removed from Steve Bannon’s Border Wall Fundraiser CaseThe Democrat judge who presided over President Donald Trump’s “hush money” case in New York has been removed from Steve Bannon’s case, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Democrats in ‘Aggressive Panic’ over Biden’s ‘Dismal’ Debate Performance: ‘We Have a Problem’Following President Joe Biden’s expected poor performance during the first presidential debate on Thursday, there is now a “deep, a wide, and a very aggressive panic in the Democratic Party,” insiders are warning.READ MORE |
| Michelle Obama Privately Frustrated with Bidens over Treatment of Hunter’s Ex-Wife, Report RevealsMichelle Obama is privately expressing her annoyance with Democrat President Joe Biden’s family, a new report has revealed.READ MORE |
| CNN’s Van Jones Warns Biden ‘Won’t Be Forgiven’ for Suffering ‘Senior Moment’ during DebateCNN political commentator Van Jones has warned that Democrat President Joe Biden “won’t be forgiven” if he sufferers one of his infamous gaffes or moments of confusion during the first presidential debate.READ MORE |
| Pentagon Admits $62 Million in Taxpayer-Funded Ukraine Military Aid Was ‘Lost or Destroyed’Democrat President Joe Biden’s Department of Defense (DOD) has admitted to losing $62 million in taxpayer funds in the form of military aid sent to Ukraine.READ MORE |
| Canadian University Launches Anti-Family Summer Camp on Remote Island, Offers ‘Drag’ Classes for KidsA top Canadian university has launched a new anti-family summer camp for kids that will be hosted by two drag queens on a parent-free remote island.READ MORE |
Bombshell Study Directly Links Covid Shots to Sudden Deaths Surge
A group of renowned researchers has just published a bombshell study that proves a direct correlation between Covid mRNA shots and surging numbers of sudden deaths seen around the world.
READ MORE
WEF Pushes Plans to ‘Reduce Car Ownership’ Among Public
Unelected members of the World Economic Forum (WEF) have laid out plans to “reduce car ownership” among members of the general public.
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Jill Biden’s Ex-Press Secretary Shared Prophetic Warning before Disastrous Debate
First Lady Jill Biden’s former press secretary Michael LaRosa appeared on national television shortly before her husband’s historically disastrous presidential debate performance.
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Nate Silver Predicts 66% Chance for Trump’s Victory in November
Renowned data analyst Nate Silver has predicted a high probability that President Donald Trump will soar to victory in the critical November election.
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Legal ‘Expert’ Claims Judge Cannon’s Handling of Jack Smith’s Team Is ‘Unprofessional’
A left-wing media legal “expert” has harshly criticized Judge Aileen Cannon for the way she has handled President Donald Trump’s classified documents case in Florida.
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Kamala Harris Officially Called on to Invoke 25th Amendment to Remove Biden
Vice President Kamala Harris has been officially called upon to remove Joe Biden from office by invoking the 25 Amendment.
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Ex-CIA Director Michael Morell Admits Letter Falsely Labeling Hunter Biden’s Laptop as ‘Russian Disinformation’ Was a Political Move
The infamous intelligence community letter claiming Hunter Biden’s laptop was “Russian disinformation” was part of an effort to rig the 2020 election, new information has revealed.
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RFK Jr Warns Debate Proves Biden Is Not Running the Country: ‘It’s Scary’
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has responded to Thursday’s historic presidential debate by warning that Democrat President Joe Biden’s trainwreck performance proves he is not running the country.
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Massachusetts Begins Rejecting Illegals, Democrat Gov Declares ‘Sanctuary’ State Is Full
The state of Massachusetts has revealed that it will no longer accept illegal aliens flooding into its cities.
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Billionaire Ex-Democrat Bill Ackman Calls on Americans to Rally Behind Trump: ‘Help Him Succeed’
Former Democrat donor Bill Ackman has called on the American people to come together and throw their support behind President Donald Trump.
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Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Jan 6 Protester Who Challenged ‘Obstruction’ Conviction
The United States Supreme Court has ruled in favor of a Jan. 6 protester with a decision that could have major implications for others persecuted over the Capitol Hill protests by Democrat President Joe Biden’s weaponized Department of Justice (DOJ).
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NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Biden Admin Seals Covid Vaccines Safety Data Until 2026President Joe Biden’s administration has sealed critical safety data related to Covid mRNA vaccines to ensure it is hidden from the American people until at least 2026.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Prominent Mega Donors Step Away from Biden Following Debate PerformancePresident Joe Biden’s heavily criticized debate performance has allegedly led Democratic donors to withdraw their support from his reelection campaign.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Two and a Half Men Star Jon Cryer Slams Presidential Debate Moderators, Claims Trump Is a LiarDuring Thursday’s presidential debate, Hollywood stars expressed their frustration with CNN as President Joe Biden, sounding hoarse and wheezing, struggled to stay coherent and even froze on live TV.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| BREAKING: Supreme Court in a 6-3 Vote Overturns ‘Chevron Doctrine,’ Limiting the Power of the Federal GovernmentThe Supreme Court, with a 6-3 vote, overturned the Chevron deference, a bureaucracy-empowering judicial doctrine that critics say led to the explosive growth of the U.S. government in recent decades.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Biden Campaign Spokesperson: ‘Joe Is Not Dropping Out of the Presidential Race — Prepared to Continue’President Joe Biden is not withdrawing from the presidential race despite his poor debate performance, confirmed Biden campaign spokesperson Seth Schuster to The Hill on Friday. Calls for Biden to step down are increasing amid Democrat and media hysteria. Biden, who mumbled and sounded raspy, seemed to lose track of his thoughts several times. Even during his prepared closing statement, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BOLIVIA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0747 UP .0058
USA/ YEN 161.11 UP 0.370 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2671 UP .0037
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3689 UP .0024 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 27.33 PTS OR 0.92%
Hang Seng CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.27%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.33 PTS OR 0.92%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .27%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 47.98 PTS OR 0.12%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2336.20
silver:$29.32
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 105.33 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.286% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.054% DOWN 2 AND 0/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.476 UP 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.104 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6005 UP 12 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0733 UP 0.0035 OR 35 basis points
USA/Japan: 161.59 UP 0.848 OR YEN IS DOWN 85 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.3190 UP 14 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0076 OR 76 BASIS pts to 1.3734
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2684 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.3013)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.70 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.054…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 14 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.481% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.638 UP 14 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.783 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2321.95
SILVER AT 11;30: 29.15
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 18.31 PTS OR 0.22%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 84,01 PTS OR 0.46%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 95.65 PTS OR 1..28 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 123.40 OR 1.13%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 528.48 PTS OR 1.74% PTS
WTI Oil price 81.38 12EST/
Brent Oil: 84.87 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 86.24 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 24/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4820 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2060 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0757 UP 0.0040 OR 40 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2643 UP 0.0011 OR 11 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.3215 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.054%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 161.51 UP 0.750 YEN DOWN 75 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3737 UP 0023 //CDN dollar DOWN 23 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.41
Brent OIL: 86,60
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.463
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.621%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 4.760
USA dollar index: 105.50 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.65 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 86.75 DOWN 0 AND 75/100 roubles
GOLD 2,332.15 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.45 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 50.65 PTS OR 0.13%
NASDAQ UP 129.35 PTS OR 0.46 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.22 DOWN 0.22 PTS OR 1.77%
GLD: $215.57 UP 0.56 OR 0.26%
SLV/ $26.85 UP 0.28 OR 0.10%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Treasuries Trounced As Trump Triumph Looms, Crude & Cryptos Soar
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Politics and macro data dominated flows/technicals today as weak macro weighed on stocks but political ‘wins’ for Trump/Republicans weighed on bonds.
The ISM manufacturing index declined in June, against expectations for a modest increase. The composition of the report was mixed, with an increase in the new orders component but declines in the production and employment components. Construction spending decreased 0.1% in May, somewhat below expectations for a small increase, while growth was revised up in March and April.
So ‘soft’ and ‘hard’ data disappointed and the collapse of the latter continues unabated…
Source: Bloomberg
…which dragged down the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNOW forecast for Q2 GDP to 1.7% (it was 4.3% a month ago!)…
Source: Bloomberg
but against that shitty backdrop, yields on USTs soared today… as it appears Biden will keep running and Trump won his immunity ruling at SCOTUS…
Source: Bloomberg
The long-end of the curve underperformed bigly today (10Y +10bps, 2Y +3bps), extending its post-debate weakness…
Source: Bloomberg
With the last few days seeing a massive bear steepening in the curve…
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in yields weighed on stocks – but not as much as one might expect (for similar Trumpian reasons we suspect)…
Source: Bloomberg
As UBS notes, the first day of a new quarter and no shortage of questions given the choppy start to Monday.
Many investors are out of seats, so the lack of liquidity is also exacerbating things under the hood, but many of these single stock dislocations cannot be explained by fundamentals.
There are a lot of cross currents within Mega Cap Tech, which is holding up (AMZN, MSFT, AAPL – cloud names supported by positive 3PP data) while anything tied to consumer or rates is getting hit right now, suggesting investors are playing the growing headwinds for US consumers.
Torsten Sippel notes that flows wise, it feels there is a de-risking in semis/internet/rideshare/online travel agents while investors continue to look more favorably on SW, adding incrementally in Large Cap names and Consumption (MSFT positive 3PP data and SNOW added to conviction list among the highlights propelling outperformance in subgroups).
Simply put, this confirms the theme we noted over the weekend – hedgies dumping and retail still buying (but that demand is fading fast).
Small Caps were the day’s biggest losers as Nasdaq outperformed with The Dow and S&P clinging to unch. A very late day buying panic put some lipstick on the pigs…
“Most Shorted” stocks followed a very similar trajectory to Friday – early punchy squeeze followed by slow bleed lower
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 stocks rallied back after a not-so-pretty start (driven by NVDA’s regulatory scare HL)
Source: Bloomberg
Dispersion remains crazy as implied correlation crashed further today to new record lows (index vols ‘low’ relative to single-stock ‘vols’)…
…as breadth is off the charts decoupled from the market…
Crypto rallied strongly over the weekend and held the gains today, erasing most of the post-Mt.Gox plunge losses from last week. Is this another pro-Trump reaction?…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was pretty much flat on the day (very modest gains)…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices shot higher, with WTI topping $83.50 for the first time since mid-April..
Source: Bloomberg
Oil’s move is dragging wholesale gasoline prices higher and pump prices are starting to turn as the lags start to hit the supply chain…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied on the day, spiking higher around 10am (ISM and Trump immunity)
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, NVDA faded on anti-trust news from France this morning, but bounced back. However, it’s still looking very head-and-shoulder on a longer-term chart…
Source: Bloomberg
But remember, it’s different this time…
Source: Bloomberg
With vols so low, now seems like a good time (with payrolls imminent on an extremely illiquid Friday) to lock in some gains and protect downside.
Source: Bloomberg
While this next two weeks is historically the best ‘seasonal’ for stock gains of the year, Washington seems to be doing its best to mess that pattern up.
MORNING TRADING//
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
USA PMI mgf is always more bullish than ISM/ Pay no attention to the pMi
(zerohedge)
As ‘Hard’ Data Collapses, Manufacturing Surveys’ Mixed Reality Emerges
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 10:05 AM
With ‘hard’ data collapsing in the last month, ‘soft’ survey data from ISM and S&P Global this morning was ‘mixed’ as usual:
- S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose from 51.3 in May to 51.6 for the final June print (down very modestly from the 51.7 flash print).
- ISM US Manufacturing PMI dropped from 48.7 to 48.5 in June (well below the 49.1 expected)
So WTF…
Source: Bloomberg
Need more confusion…
S&P Global noted that higher supplier charges were signaled in June. Alongside rising labor costs, this resulted in a further marked increase in input prices. But, ISM saw Prices Paid plunge from 57.0 to 52.1, well below the 55.8 expected…
Source: Bloomberg
New orders rebounded in June but employment dropped back into contraction. On the bright side, Orders/Inventories (typically a leading indicator), ticked up in June…
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“The S&P Global PMI survey shows US manufacturers struggling to achieve strong production growth in June, hamstrung by weak demand from domestic and export markets alike. Although the PMI has now been in positive territory in five of the first six months of 2024, up from just one positive month in 2023, growth momentum remains frustratingly weak.
“Factories have been hit over the past two years by demand switching post-pandemic from goods to services, while at the same time household and business spending power has been diminished by higher prices and concerns over higher-for-longer interest rates. These headwinds persisted into June, accompanied by heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook as the presidential election draws closer.“
Finally, despite the uptick, Williamson admits the truth under the surface of the survey:
“Business confidence has consequently fallen to the lowest for 19 months, suggesting the manufacturing sector is bracing itself for further tough times in the coming months.”
However, we are sure business owners everywhere were reassured by the commander-in-chief’s commanding performance in the debate last week.
end
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
WHO IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Biden’s decline has been known to friends and insiders for months
JUN 28, 2024
Readers of this column know that President Joe Biden’s drift into blankness has been ongoing for months, as he and his foreign policy aides have been urging a ceasefire that will not happen in Gaza while continuing to supply the weapons that make a ceasefire less likely. There’s a similar paradox in Ukraine, where Biden has been financing a war that cannot be won and refusing to participate in negotiations that could end the slaughter.
The reality behind all of this, as I’ve been told for months, is that the president is simply no longer there, in terms of understanding the contradictions of the policies he and his foreign policy advisers have been carrying out. America should not have a president who does not know what he has signed off on. People in power have to be responsible for what they do, and last night showed America and the world that we have a president who clearly is not in that position today.
The real disgrace is not only Biden’s, but those of the men and women around him who have kept him more and more under wraps. He is a captive, and as he rapidly diminished over the past six months. I have been hearing for months about the increasing isolation of the president, from his one-time pals in the Senate, who find that he is unable to return their calls. Another old family friend, whose help has been sought by Biden on key issues since his days as vice president, told me of a plaintive call from the president many months ago. Biden said the White House was in chaos and he needed his friend’s help. The friend said he begged off and then told me, with a laugh: “I would rather have a root canal procedure every day than go to work there.” A long retired Senate colleague was invited by Biden to join him on a foreign trip, and the two played cards and shared a drink or two on the Air Force One flight going out. The senator was barred by Biden’s staff from joining the return flight home.
I have been told the increasing isolation of the president on foreign policy issues has been in part the doing of Tom Donilon, whose younger brother, Michael, a key pollster and adviser in Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign and in the current re-election effort, was part of the team that spent much of the week briefing Biden for last night’s debate. Tom Donilon, who is 69, was President Biden’s national security adviser from 2010 to 2013 and sought unsuccessfully to be named as Biden’s director of the Central Intelligence Agency. He remains very much an insider.
Given Biden’s obvious decline in recent months, it is impossible for an outsider to understand why the White House agreed to any debates with Donald Trump before the election, let alone committing to the earliest presidential debate, the first of two, in modern history. One thought, I was told, was that if Biden performed well, as he had in his State of the Union speech in March, the issue of his mental capacity would be tabled. A poor performance would give the Biden campaign time to do a better prep job for the scheduled second debate.
There also was pressure from the major Democratic fundraisers, many of them in New York City, for the campaign to do something to counter the perception of the president’s obvious growing impairment, as reported and filmed by major media. I have been told that at least one foreign leader, after a closed meeting with Biden, told others that the president’s decline was so visible that it was hard to understand how, as it was put to me, “he could go through the rigors” of a re-election campaign. Such warnings were ignored.
What now? One of Washington political savants told me today that the Democratic Party is now facing “a national security crisis.” The nation is backing two devastating wars with a president who clearly is not up to it, he said, and it might be time to start drafting a resignation speech that would match or outdo the one given in March of 1968 by President Lyndon Johnson after his narrow victory over Senator Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary.
“They’re trapped,” he said of the senior advisers in the White House who hoped that Biden would somehow do well enough in last night’s debates to carry on, with the much-needed support of the more skeptical financial supporters in New York City.
Not everyone I talked to today agreed that it is time to force a Biden resignation and hope for the best at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago in August—to dump the ticket and seek new candidates. “My humble opinion,” one longtime contributor to the Democratic Party told me, “is to let the dust settle. Must examine the realistic options before some quick reaction creates an internal Democratic Party split with far-reaching consequences beyond 2024. Accept reality . . . 2024 is likely beyond recovery at this point. Too steep a hill to climb. Plan and execute a long-term plan to counter Mr. Orange and build a moderate platform for the recovery . . . and let Biden wander off to the Jersey Pine Barrens.”
A differing view was expressed by another political guru. “This is the age of social media—TikTok, Facebook, Instagram, and X—and a political campaign can go very far very fast.”
Whatever happens, we have a president—now fully unveiled—who just may not be responsible for what he does in the coming campaign, not to mention his actions in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Whatever happened to the 25th Amendment that authorizes the vice president and a majority of the Cabinet to declare the president incompetent? What is going on in the Biden White House?
END
There It Is: Biden Family Now ‘Expected To Discuss Future Of Campaign’ After Disaster Dementia Debate
SUNDAY, JUN 30, 2024 – 07:35 AM
After Jill Biden spent Saturday in the Hamptons orchestrating Weekend at Bernie’s 3, NBC News reports that the Biden family is expected to discuss ‘the future of his re-election campaign’ at Camp David on Sunday following a horrendous debate on Thursday which laid bare to the world the fact that Joe Biden is not running the country.
According to the report, while top Democrats jumped to publicly reiterate their support for Biden, “senior congressional Democrats, including Reps. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Jim Clyburn of South Carolina and Nancy Pelosi of California, have privately expressed concerns about his viability, said two sources apprised of those discussions.”
One Democratic House member who’s still in the closet over Biden pulling out told NBC (which spoke with over a dozen Democrats) that three colleagues agreed during votes on the House floor Friday.
And so, while the party is still virtue circling the wagons, they clearly want Biden out – and are ‘giving him space’ to “determine next steps. They believe only the president, in consultation with his family, can decide whether to move forward or to end his campaign early — and that he won’t respond well to being pushed.”
So that’s on the table.
“The decision-makers are two people — it’s the president and his wife,” said one of the sources familiar with the discussions, adding “Anyone who doesn’t understand how deeply personal and familial this decision will be isn’t knowledgeable about the situation.”
According to another person ‘familiar with his mood,’ Biden is “humiliated, devoid of confidence and painfully aware that the physical images of him at the debate — eyes staring into the distance, mouth agape — will live beyond his presidency, along with a performance that at times was meandering, incoherent and difficult to hear.”
“It’s a mess,” the person said.
Yes… And this is what the world just saw from the man with the nuclear codes:
Another source said, Joe will only listen to Jill Biden.
“The only person who has ultimate influence with him is the first lady,” they said. “If she decides there should be a change of course, there will be a change of course.“
After NBC News printed the above story, a ‘source familiar’ scrambled to let them know that the Camp David gathering was not a formal family meeting.
“Any discussion about the campaign is expected to be informal or an afterthought,” said the source. “No one is sitting down for a formal or determinative discussion.”
Damage control intensifies…
Earlier Saturday, the White House told Axios that Biden is basically sundowning all the time, but is ‘dependably engaged’ between the hours of 10am to 4pm, and that outside of that range, he’s ‘more likely to have verbal miscues and become fatigued.’
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
END
Big win for Trump: he has immunity for criminal prosecution if he did this in his official capacity
(zerohedge)
Trump Says Immunity Ruling ‘Big Win For Democracy’
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 10:33 AM
The Supreme Court on Monday ruled in a 6-3 vote that former presidents, including Trump, enjoy immunity from criminal prosecution for conduct involving official acts during tenure in office, but he’s not immune from unofficial acts.
As Bloomberg notes, the decision – which kicks the ball back to the lower court – ‘all but ensures’ that a trial won’t happen in Trump’s classified documents case before the November election.
The justices, voting 6-3 along ideological lines, said a federal appeals court was too categorical in rejecting Trump’s immunity arguments, ruling for the first time that former presidents are shielded from prosecution for some official acts taken while in office. The majority ordered the lower courts to revisit the case to decide the extent of the allegations that are off limits to prosecution.
“Just as former presidents have immunity from civil liability for official acts, they have immunity from criminal prosecution unless they are impeached and removed from office for the crime alleged. This decision is supported by the writings of the framers of the Constitution, the text of the Constitution and Supreme Court precedent,” wrote X user Martin Harry.
As constitutional law professor Jonathan Turley notes, now “the issue is whether what constitutes official acts,” adding that the ruling will “further delay the lower court proceedings, but Trump will have to argue that his actions fall within these navigational beacons.”
“The lower court judge has been highly favorable for Jack Smith in the past. Yet the court is arguing that there is a presumption of immunity for their official acts beyond the absolute immunity on core constitutional powers.”
Meanwhile, Justice Thomas called into question the legality of Smith’s office:
Justice Thomas’ concurrence in Trump v. U.S. is hugely significant. He questions whether Special Counsel Jack Smith’s office is constitutional. “If there is no law establishing the office that the Special Counsel occupies, then he cannot proceed with this prosecution. A private citizen cannot criminally prosecute anyone, let alone a former President.” https://supremecourt.gov/opinions/23pdf/23-939_e2pg.pdf#page=52…
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.com/bhweingarten/status/1807788320933474481
In a blistering dissent, Justice Sotomayor writes that the ruling “makes a mockery of the principle, foundational to our constitution and system of government, that no man is above the law.”
“Relying on little more than its own misguided wisdom… the court gives former President trump all the immunity he asked for and more.“
Special counsel Jack Smith is leading two federal probes against Trump, both of which led to criminal charges. In Washington, Trump has been targeted over alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election, while a Florida case revolves around the mishandling of classified documents – for which Trump has claimed presidential immunity.
In response to the ruling, Trump said on Truth Social that it was a “”BIG WIN FOR OUR CONSTITUTION AND DEMOCRACY.”
It’s a massive Trump W. Presumptive immunity for official acts. No J6 trial in DC before the election, absolutely no chance.
·
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.com/willchamberlain/status/1807787633818443863
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
SWAMP NEWS
Watch: Just Another Night In Gavin Newsom’s California
SUNDAY, JUN 30, 2024 – 01:25 PM
President Joe Biden’s disastrous debate with former President Trump on Thursday has led leftist corporate media to publish headlines calling for the elderly president to step aside.
Unprecedented headlines in the US media, as pressure mounts on President Biden to quit.
·
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https://bit.ly/4budg7M
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Views
Although there is no evidence that Biden is willing to end his presidential campaign, some corporate media outlets have suggested replacements, such as California Governor Gavin Newsom.
However, Gov. Newsom is probably one of the worst possible candidates. The entire nation has watched the radical leftist governor transform California into a socialist hellhole over the years characterized by rampant lawlessness, widespread homelessness, an affordability crisis, and a poor economic climate with high taxes.
The latest issue in the Golden State has been out-of-control youth reenacting scenes of the video game ‘Grand-Theft-Auto’ through wild street takeovers.
According to the Los Angeles Police Department, at least 50 vehicles were involved in a street takeover in downtown Los Angeles early Saturday morning.
Videos of the chaos were uploaded on X. They show multiple cars engulfed in flames.
NEW: Multiple vehicles burst into flames at a ‘Street Takeover’ event in downtown Los Angeles after 400-500 people blocked off the street. What lovely people who contribute so much to our society. According to the Citizen app, multiple vehicles “exploded” thanks to nitrous tanks in the cars. The incident happened around 3am at the intersection of 18th and Main streets where about 50 cars were present. The two destroyed vehicles were impounded but no arrests were made according to reports.
1:22
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1.1M Views
Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de Leon told CBS News that street takeovers are unacceptable, adding, “It angers me, because it puts other people in danger.”
The lack of law and order in the state suggests Gov. Newsom has a very limited shot against Trump.
END
My goodness: the number of criminals caught entering the uSA illegally each month sets a record
(Tom Ozimek/EpochTimes)
Number Of Criminals Caught Entering US Illegally Each Month Sets Record: CBP
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The number of people with criminal convictions caught entering the United States illegally per month so far this fiscal year has risen to a record high, data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) show.
An average of 1,459 criminal illegal aliens per month have been arrested after crossing the U.S. border unlawfully since the current fiscal year began on Oct. 1, 2023, according to CBP data. This is the highest monthly tally of any year on record.
If the trend continues, when fiscal year 2024 ends in September, a record level of more than 17,000 criminals will have been caught crossing the border illegally. So far this fiscal year, that number amounts to 13,130.
By comparison, fiscal year 2023 saw an average of 1,272 arrests of criminal illegal immigrants per month, for a total of 15,267 arrests.
Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens recently revealed that 360 of the illegal immigrants with criminal convictions arrested so far in 2024 have gang affiliations.
“Individuals like these can pose a significant threat to public safety,” he wrote in a post on X. “We must be able to apprehend & identify them, so we can prosecute & remove them.”
While a little over half of the individuals on the CBP’s “criminal noncitizens” arrest list for 2024 so far have prior convictions for illegal entry and re-entry, significant numbers have been convicted of more serious crimes like assault (814), burglary (496), sexual offenses (168), and homicide (23).
Criminal records are based on searching “records checks of available law enforcement databases.” The crimes may have occurred in the United States or abroad, but excludes conduct not considered criminal by the United States.
This past weekend, border patrol agents caught seven previously convicted sex offenders at the southwest border, Chief Owens wrote in another post on X.
This year’s record-breaking monthly numbers don’t include gotaways—people who managed to evade capture to make their way into U.S. communities.
Two such gotaways are 22-year-old Johan Jose Martinez and 26-year-old Franklin Pena, both Venezuelan nationals charged with capital murder in the death of 12-year-old Jocelyn Nungaray, whose body was found in a creek in Houston on June 17.
An Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) spokesperson confirmed to The Epoch Times that the two suspects entered the country illegally at an unknown date and location, and managed to evade detection. It wasn’t until earlier this year that they were both taken into custody—and subsequently released with notices to appear before a judge for removal proceedings.
Mass Deportation
This comes as the issue of illegal immigration has surged to the top of voters’ concerns in an election year and amid growing support for mass deportation of illegal immigrants.
According to an early June CBS/YouGov poll, 62 percent of U.S. voters would support a national program to deport all illegal immigrants from the United States. That’s significantly higher than the 39 percent who expressed the same view in 2016, a presidential election year that saw then-presidential candidate Donald Trump run on a platform of curbing illegal immigration, in part by promising to build a border wall. In the run-up to this year’s presidential election, former President Trump has endorsed mass deportation measures of illegal immigrants.
Meanwhile, a recent Supreme Court ruling made it harder for illegal immigrants to fight their deportation orders in court.
President Joe Biden also recently launched a program that shields illegal immigrant adults who are married to U.S. citizens from deportation, and extended these protections to children with a parent married to a U.S. citizen.
Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas was recently asked in an interview on CNN for his reaction on the sharp increase in the share of Americans who support mass deportation.
He responded by pointing to President Biden’s new program noting that the Biden administration holds in high regard the value of keeping families together, regardless of immigration status.
“It is about family unity,” Mr. Mayorkas said. “That is an ethic and a value of this country. And we will benefit significantly from it. We will keep families together. Families, including the undocumented spouses, who have contributed so much to this country in so many different ways.”
end
Tucker: Obama Is Privately Lobbying To Get Rid Of Biden
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 09:30 AM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
Despite his public support for the president, Barack Obama is privately lobbying to get rid of Joe Biden, telling insiders he cannot defeat Trump, according to what Tucker Carlson described as an “unusually good source.”
Biden got completely embarrassed during Thursday night’s debate, spreading panic amongst top Democrats and leading the New York Times to insist that he should step aside.
Despite the backlash, Obama tweeted his support for Biden, asserting that “bad debate nights happen” and that people should still stick with him.
However, Obama is reportedly saying very different things in private.
From an unusually good source: Obama’s tweet supporting Joe Biden was disingenuous. In private, Obama is telling people Biden can’t win, and he is therefore in favor of an open convention. Obama will not say whom he supports, nor as of yesterday afternoon had he met personally with Biden to deliver the message. Relations between the Obamas and the Bidens have never been warm. At times they’ve been hostile. But recently they’ve deteriorated further, mostly due to Jill Biden. In the hours and days after the debate, she kept her husband cloistered away from anyone who might convince him to drop out. Jill Biden is the driving force behind her husband’s reelection campaign, just as she was in 2020, when other members of the family (including Biden’s sister Val) considered him too impaired to run. The next generation of potential Democratic candidates understands all this as an opportunity and they’re circling, particularly Gretchen Whitmer, who is promoting herself aggressively.
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https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/180768229786217299
“From an unusually good source: Obama’s tweet supporting Joe Biden was disingenuous. In private, Obama is telling people Biden can’t win, and he is therefore in favor of an open convention,” Tucker Carlson posted on X.
“Obama will not say whom he supports, nor as of yesterday afternoon had he met personally with Biden to deliver the message,” he added.
Carlson made it clear that relations between the Obamas and Bidens have “deteriorated further,” and that Jill Biden is driving her husband’s reckless decision to stay in the presidential race.
“In the hours and days after the debate, she kept her husband cloistered away from anyone who might convince him to drop out. Jill Biden is the driving force behind her husband’s reelection campaign, just as she was in 2020, when other members of the family (including Biden’s sister Val) considered him too impaired to run.”
“The next generation of potential Democratic candidates understands all this as an opportunity and they’re circling, particularly Gretchen Whitmer, who is promoting herself aggressively.”
Meanwhile, the Biden family held a crunch meeting at Camp David yesterday during which they urged the president to stay in the race despite his shocking debate performance.
Rather ludicrously, Jill Biden and others are telling Joe Biden that not only can he continue his campaign and defeat Trump, but is also fit to serve another four years.
Yes, they seriously believe that a man who is already clearly showing signs of dementia in July 2024 can be the most powerful man in the world with the nuclear codes until January 2029, at which point he will be 86-years-old.
The delusion is off the charts.
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
KING REPORT
GREG HUNTER interviewing Charles Nenner:
‘War-Cycle’ Turns Up As ‘Economic-Cycle’ Plunges: Charles Nenner Warns “Very Hard Times Are Coming”
MONDAY, JUL 01, 2024 – 05:00 AM
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning of a huge war cycle and plunging financial economic cycle.
This week, Nenner’s war cycle “turned straight up” and his economic cycle “turned straight down.”
The next big conflict is not going to be in Ukraine or Taiwan–just yet. On Saturday, this headline: “Iran Threatens Israel With ‘Obliterating War’ If It Attacks Lebanon.”
Nenner says all hell is about to break loose.
Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iran and Turkey are key players in an escalating war with Israel. Nenner, who lives on the border with Lebanon in Northern Israel, interviewed with USAW just after a barrage of 100 rockets hit near his location. Nenner reports,
“The children here have not gone to school for a year, and we are under rocket fire day and night. It is a very strange situation. What I don’t understand is the Arab resistance, led by Iran, did not see what happened in Gaza. If this really goes, Lebanon is going to disappear from the map…
How do I know these things? I know these things because I work with several governments in the world… In the 1960’s, there was a war, and half of Cypress ended up Turkish and half of Cypress is Greek. Turkey never accepted that. . . . Israel is using airfields in Cypress. . . . If this really gets going, Turkey is going to take over Cypress because they support Hamas (and Hezbollah). Turkey will invade Cypress, and this will lead to a war between Greece and Turkey. Of course, Iran is going to be involved also. Big boats are heading to Israel, so America is going to be involved. Russia has its ideas too…
I don’t think Americans have any clue what is going on there, and they have no background. They are only busy with trying to win the Election, and it’s going to lead to catastrophe.
If there is a war, Turkey is going to be involved, Cypress is going to be involved, NATO is going to be involved, and it is going to be much more serious than people think.”
Nenner says, “We are already in the next big war cycle.” Nenner still thinks China is going to be a big problem and says,
“I would say if the world is busy with all this nonsense, then this is a time for China to take Taiwan over.
The war cycle is extra up, so we have to be very careful.
A lot of my wealthy clients are busy trying to get visas . . . to Caribbean islands. I know many wealthy people busy trying to get visas and trying to get out of America. This is what is going on below the surface, and most small investors don’t know what is going on…
They are worried about a nuke strike or terrorists blowing stuff up left and right because they came through the border. This is a very dangerous situation. They are not leaving right now, but they are preparing now…
The war cycle has turned up, and it is going to be extra dangerous from the 3rd of July on.”
Nenner says his big clients are also leaving the cities and buying houses in rural locations.
Nenner told me this is a trend that has been going on for about 5 years, but it has picked up speed in the last year and a half.
Nenner says his economic cycles have turned straight down.
In NYC, Nenner points out, “I have very wealthy clients that just got out of commercial real estate with a 67% loss. I also know the banks, they are holding all these bad loans.”
” The banks have US bonds coming to maturity that they have lost a fortune on. So, the banks, especially the regional banks, are going to be in big trouble…
The regional banks are very weak. A lot is burning below the surface, which nobody tells you about.”
Nenner still likes gold, but it’s going to consolidate here.
Inflation is getting ready to take off again, and Nenner says, “Layoffs are coming soon. . . . Very hard times are coming.”
There is much more in the 38-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 6.29.24.
* * *
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There is free information and analysis on CharlesNenner.com.
SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
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