JULY 3/GOLD CLOSED UP $35.25 TO $2360.00 WITH SILVER ALSO HAVING S STELLAR DAY UIP $1.08 TO $30.54//PLATINUM WAS UP $2.30 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $15.05//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/SLAY NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA NEWS: JOBLESS CLAIMS RISE//ADP PRIVATE WAGE REPORT TANKS//CONSTRUCTION TANKS: BASICALLY THE ECONOMY IS IN ROUBLE AS BOND YIELDS TANKS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2355,50

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.46

Bitcoin morning price:$60,363 DOWN 1674 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $60,306 DOWN 713 dollars//

Platinum price closing  UP; $2.30 TO $1000.15

Palladium price; UP $15.05 AT $1034.40

END

About this Report

Last Updated 03 Jul 2024 09:28:40 AM CT.

Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.

MONTHCHARTLASTCHANGEPRIOR
SETTLE
OPENHIGHLOWVOLUMEUPDATED
JUL 2024
SGUN4
2353.5008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024
AUG 2024
SGUQ4
2390.9+37.2 (+1.58%)2353.72360.32390.92356.849809:07:50 CT
03 Jul 2024
SEP 2024
SGUU4
2353.9008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024
OCT 2024
SGUV4
2378.0008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024
DEC 2024
SGUZ4
2390.5008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024
FEB 2025
SGUG5
2391.1008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024
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2391.7008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024
JUN 2025
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2392.3008:50:01 CT
03 Jul 2024

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END

EXCH: COMEX

JPMorgan stopped 0/19

FOR JULY 2024

 EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,323.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/02/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/05/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED


118 C MACQUARIE FUT 6
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 4
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 8
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 17 1


TOTAL: 19 19

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END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $35.25 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/

: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OFF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAOUR

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833,37TONNES

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $1.08 AT THE SLV//

SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV//

// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 436.808 MILLION OZ/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 77 CONTRACTS TO 154,724 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $0.19 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD SOME ZERO LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 1410 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE  GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES.  WE HAD ANOTHER  STRONG SIZED 643 T.A.S ISSUANCE,

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY JUNE 4 AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, JUNE 7 AND AGAIN ON YESTERDAY’S TRADING

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 643 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.19) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1265 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE  GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.19.

WE  MUST HAVE HAD:

A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1188 CONTRACT  ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 196,000 OZ

WE HAD:

/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 653 CONTRACTS)/

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 DAYS, total 2798 contracts:   OR 13.990 MILLION OZ  (932 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  13.990 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 77 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1188 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF  28.496 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ E.FP JUMP TO LONDON

WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1265  OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 643 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. 

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT   (643) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .

WE HAD 645 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.320 million OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4358 OI CONTRACTS  TO 456,066 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (3022 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $4.45  IN PRICE/TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4115 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 454,730

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7134 CONTRACTS  WITH 3022 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4115 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7134 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2435 CONTRACTS,,

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4115 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 3022 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7137 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP 

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2435 CONTRACTS//

JUNE

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 8972 CONTRACTS OR 897,200 OZ OR 27.906 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2990 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  27.906 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  27.906DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.788% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 27.906 TONNES

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED  97 CONTRACTS OI  TO 154,724 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1188 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 1188  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1188 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 77 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1188 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1410 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 7.050 MILLION OZ 

OCCURRED DESPITE OUR   $0.19 GAIN IN PRICE …..

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.64 PTS OR 0.49% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 209.43 PTS OR 1.18% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 506.07 OR 1.26%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.33%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2733 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3056/ Oil DOWN TO 82.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 86,24/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 3022 CONTRACTS  TO 454,730 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.45 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME SHORT COVERING.

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4358 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  AUGUST 4358 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4358 CONTRACTS.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7137 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4115 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 3022 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR  LOSS IN PRICE OF $4.45/TUESDAY COMEX.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 3684 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN FRIDAY’S TRADING 

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   JULY  (8.308 TONNES)

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY  $4.45 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7137 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE ACCOMPANYING THE  LOSS IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 22.19 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.308 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $4.45

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7137 CONTRACTS OR 713,700 OZ (22.19 TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 186,697 contracts//poor

//speculators have left the gold arena

GoldOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz
 nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz




64,862.002 oz

Manfra
































































 




















   






 







 




.

 








 









 
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
















 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
14,202.283 OZ
JPMorgan
No of oz served (contracts) today 19 notice(s)
1900 OZ
0.05909 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices) 446 contracts 
  44600 OZ
1.387 TONNES

 
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month2225 notices
222500 oz
6.920 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this monthx

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 0 customer deposit:

total deposit: oz

customer withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Manfra: 64,862.002 oz

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 202,079.015 oz

Adjustments:

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE

For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 465 contracts having LOST 599 contracts. We had 614 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained 15 contracts or an additional 1500 oz will stand at the comex (0.0466 tonnes)

AUGUST LOST 8558 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 335,401 CONTRACTS

SEPT. GAINED I9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 151.

OCTOBER GAINED 742 CONTRACTS UP TO 21,439 CONTRACTS

We had 19 contracts filed for today representing 1900  oz  

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 19 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,686,834.101 oz 52.46 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,501,649.558 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,838,185.304( 243.80 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,663,464.254 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,151351 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.332 tonnes //

END

SilverOunces
Withdrawals from Dealers InventoryNIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory

866,067.400 oz



Brinks
Delaware






























































































































.














































 










 
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil


















 
Deposits to the Customer Inventory







nil oz








































 












































 











 
No of oz served today (contracts)64 CONTRACT(S)  
 (0.3200 million OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)761 contracts 
(3.805 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)4986 Contracts
 (24.930 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this monthNIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : nil oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  0 customer deposits:

total customer deposit nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.402million oz/297.317million  or 43.09%

adjustment: 2

a) dealer to customer ASAHI 1,149,962.100 oz

b) customer to dealer Brinks 294,963.310 oz

customer withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Delaware 7624.800 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 865,042.800

total withdrawal:866,067.400 0z

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.059MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.317

million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 825 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 370 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 331 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST 39 CONTRACTS OR 195,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX VIA AN E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.

AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 110 CONTRACTS TO 1593

SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 74 CONTRACTS TO 129,132

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 64 for 0.320 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 55,738 good

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY ((825) and the number of notices served upon today 64 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month:  4986 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (825)x number of notices served upon today minus (64)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY  contract month equates to 28.735 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 28.735 million oz.

There are 69.059 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES

JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES

JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES

JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES

JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES

JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES

JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD  INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES

JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES

JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES

JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES

JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES

JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES

JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES

JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES

JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES

JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES

JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES

JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES

JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES

JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.

JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./

JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./

JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./

JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//

JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//

JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.

JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.

JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES

JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES

JUNE 12  WITH SILVER UP $0.97  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ

JUNE 11  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ

JUNE 10  WITH SILVER UP $0.30  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ

JUNE 7  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ

JUNE 6  WITH SILVER UP $1.27  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ

JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ

JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ

JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ

MAY  31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ

MAY  30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80  TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ

MAY  29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ

MAY  28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64  TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ

1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY

CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

end

4. other gold commentaries/podcasts/live from the vault Andrew Maguire 179

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER

END

6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/

END

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.64 PTS OR 0.49% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 209.43 PTS OR 1.18% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 506.07 OR 1.26%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.33%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2733 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.3056/ Oil DOWN TO 82.85 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 86,24/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2733

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.3056

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.64 PTS OR 0.49 %

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 209,45 PTS OR 1.18%

2. Nikkei closed UP 506.07 PTS OR 1.26 %

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  105.31 EURO RISES TO 1.0741 UP 12 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,103 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 161.93 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10  YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5975/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 4.036 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.429%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.681

3j Gold at $2345.20//Silver at: 30.16  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 60/ 100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.45

3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and  86 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 161.93/  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.103% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.9032 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9719 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.430 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.595 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.764 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.58…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.275 UP 2 PTS

Futures Trade At Record High Ahead Of Data Flood

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 08:15 AM

US futures traded at new record highs amid rising optimism a Fed rate cut is coming, perhaps as soon as the end of the month, and ignored sticky high yields which traded near the highest level in a month. As of 8:00am ET, and ahead of a data barrage later in the day which includes ADP, Trade and claims data, as well as the latest PMI, ISM, Factory orders and Durable goods reports, S&P and Nasdaq futures were flat, erasing a modest gain earlier in the session, and ahead of a shortened-session that will end at 1 p.m. because of the July 4 holiday. On Tuesday, the S&P 500 closed above 5,500 for the first time notching its 32nd record this year. Tech and small-caps are outperforming as the market received a bullish boost from Powell but now the question is whether the macro data (and earnings) can deliver with ISM Services today and NFP on Friday. European markets took heart from Wall Street’s latest all-time highs and efforts to block a right-wing majority in French elections. Bond yields are flat to +1bps as the curve is flattening; USD is lower and commodities are higher led by metals where silver is the standout. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM Services, ADP/Jobless Claims, Factory Orders, and Fed Minutes (released after the Equity close). 

In premarket trading, TSLA led the Mag 7, +2.8% with NVDA weaker but broader Semis are up small. Paramount Global jumped 10% in US premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported that Skydance Media had reached a preliminary agreement to buy National Amusements Inc. and merge with Paramount.  Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Dell (DELL) advances 1.5% in premarket trading after BofA adds the personal computer maker to its US 1 list.
  • Permian Resources (PR) shares advance 0.6% in premarket trading after the oil and natural gas company was upgraded to outperform from market perform at BMO Capital Markets.

With US stocks propelling higher by the day, the MSCI world index measuring both developed and emerging markets is also at a record high, evidence of the relentless euphoric sentiment toward stocks. The S&P 500 has added more than $16 trillion in value from a closing low in October 2022, thanks to solid earnings, the craze over artificial intelligence and expectations of lower borrowing costs.

After yesterday’s dovish speech by Jerome Powell at the Sintra central bank conclave, today investors will parse US initial jobless claims and ADP employment data among other readings on the economy for more clues on the policy outlook. Powell acknowledged Tuesday that the central bank has made “quite a bit of progress” in reducing inflation but emphasized officials need more evidence before lowering rates. Markets are also gearing up for the all-important US payrolls reading due Friday. Economists expect the report to show employers added about 190,000 workers in June and the unemployment rate likely held at 4%.

“We are in a situation where momentum in the US equity market is still strong, we are seeing inflation tick lower and increasing odds of a Fed cut in September, all of which should be sufficient to keep the rally going,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Co.

“There are clear signs the US economy and labor markets are slowing and that should be confirmed by Friday’s payrolls data, laying the path for the Fed to cut in September,” Zurich Insurance’s Miller said.

In Europe, much of the spotlight continues to be on politics, on the eve of elections in the UK. The Stoxx 600 is up 0.7%, led by gains in technology and mining shares, while in France, the benchmark CAC 40 index rallied 1.6% as anti-National Rally parties attempt to prevent Marine Le Pen’s far-right group from achieving an absolute majority in the final round of legislative voting on Sunday. Shares of BE Semiconductor Industries NV soared 9.1% in Amsterdam after analysts wrote that Apple Inc. could adopt the Dutch chip-equipment firm’s technology as soon as next year. Here are some other notable European movers:

  • Diageo shares rises as much as 3.2%, the most about five months, after Citi upgraded the spirit maker to buy, saying it is nearing an inflection point and full-year results should be a clearing event for what continues to be an “attractive compounding growth story”
  • BE Semiconductor shares advance as much as 7.9% after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the Dutch semiconductor equipment maker to a Street-high, saying that Apple could adopt the company’s hybrid bonding technology in its chips as soon as 2H next year
  • Galderma shares gain as much as 2.9%, the most since May, after Vontobel initiated coverage of the Swiss skincare firm with a buy recommendation and a Street-high price target, saying its future growth will be supported by two upcoming drug launches
  • BPER Banca shares gain as much as 4% after main shareholder Unipol underwrites share swap with 4.77% of the bank’s capital as underlying. Equita analysts said that Unipol’s move confirms its commitment
  • Drax shares jump as much as 5.8%, the most since February, after Barclays raised its price target to a new Street high, citing the UK power utility’s “forgotten upside potential” and predicting it will get a much-needed government subsidy contract
  • Grenke shares rise as much as 13%, the most since October 2022, after the German leasing finance provider reported its strongest quarter ever in terms of new business
  • Text shares soar as much as 12% after the Polish chatbot tools provider reported sales rising 12% y/y in the quarter through June, fueled by higher average revenue per user
  • JD Sports shares fell as much as 4.4% after the stock received its only negative analyst rating. Barclays downgraded the sports apparel retailer to underweight from equal-weight, citing its high exposure to Nike
  • PostNL shares drop as much as 7.2% to the lowest in more than four years after the delivery company was downgraded by UBS, which warned that downside risks to consensus look underestimated
  • Bpost shares drop as much as 11% to an all-time low after the postal delivery company gave guidance that was below expectations, prompting analysts to cut their price targets

Europe suffered the biggest reduction in overweight positions among regions globally in June, reversing the buying trend seen in May, Goldman said. Funds cut the most exposure to financial stocks, particularly banks, with net selling for that sector the largest since November 2021.

Earlier,  Asian equities advanced, driven by gains in Hong Kong and Taiwan, as the region’s technology stocks saw a rally tracking a similar move in the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.8% in a fourth straight day of gains, its longest stretch since May. Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell’s remarks that a disinflationary trend is resuming in the US boosted risk appetite in the region. A MSCI gauge of technology stocks added 1.3%. Japanese stocks climbed for the fourth session, their longest run since March. Equities also gained in South Korea, Singapore and Australia.  “A bearish move in the US dollar and a halt in US Treasury yields’ upside may keep the risk environment supportive in the Asia session,” said Jun Rong Yeap, market analyst at IG Asia. Yeap expects traders to limit risk-taking ahead of a holiday-shortened session in the US later Wednesday.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index eased as much as 0.1%; the US currency stumbled versus the euro, which gained for the sixth-straight day, its best run since March, on growing confidence that France’s far-right may fail to win a majority at second-round general vote later in the week USD/JPY rose 0.3% to 161.94; the yen’s slide to its weakest since 1986 raises intervention concerns

In rates, treasuries are narrowly mixed with the curve flatter. On the day long-end yields are higher by ~2bp and 2-year yields are lower by ~2bp. German and UK curves are also flatter on the day following firm services PMI readings. French government bonds rise for a second day amid reports that political parties were maneuvering to block an absolute majority for the far-right after Sunday’s second-round vote. 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are tighter by ~2bp on the day. US 10-year yield around 4.43% is little changed vs Tuesday’s close with gilts outperforming by 1.5bp in the sector, leading gains across European bonds.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.2% against the greenback to a multi-decade low near 162.

In commodities, oil prices pared an earlier gain to trade little changed, with WTI near $82.90 a barrel. Spot gold adds $13 to around $2,343/oz. Crypto is under pressure this morning, with Bitcoin briefly dipping below the $60k mark as prediction markets now see Kamala replacing Joe Biden.

Looking at today’s barrage of data, the US economic data slate includes June Challenger job cuts (7:30am), June ADP employment change (8:15am), May trade balance, weekly jobless claims (8:30am), June final S&P Global services PMI (9:45am), May factory orders and June ISM services index (10am).

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,567.50
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $86.49/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,345.59
  • US Dollar Index down 0.10% to 105.62
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 513.40
  • MXAP up 0.7% to 182.08
  • MXAPJ up 0.8% to 568.81
  • Nikkei up 1.3% to 40,580.76
  • Topix up 0.5% to 2,872.18
  • Hang Seng Index up 1.2% to 17,978.57
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,982.38
  • Sensex up 0.6% to 79,914.27
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 7,739.88
  • Kospi up 0.5% to 2,794.01
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 2.63%
  • Euro up 0.1% to $1.0761
  • Brent Futures up 0.3% to $86.48/bbl

Top Overnight News

  • European stocks rose, tracking a record S&P 500 close, on optimism about US interest-rate cuts after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said inflation is getting back on a downward path
  • Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is scrambling to get an absolute majority in the final round of France’s legislative election Sunday as rival parties are maneuvering to keep the far-right party out of power
  • SoftBank’s stock rose 1.5% to a new lifetime high on Wednesday, a vote of confidence in Masayoshi Son’s ambitions to ramp up investments in AI and semiconductors
  • Venture dealmaking is coming back — at least, for artificial intelligence companies. Last quarter, US venture capitalists spent $55.6 billion backing startups, up by about half from a year earlier quarter and the spendiest quarter in two years, according to PitchBook data
  • An activist short-seller, a New York hedge fund, a Mauritius-based investment vehicle and a broker tied to a big Indian bank: All played a role in one of the world’s most damaging short-seller attacks.
  • Traders in the $27 trillion Treasury market are betting on higher long-term bond yields as Wall Street starts to adjust for Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House
  • US judge postponed former President Trump’s sentencing in the hush-money case to September 18th.
  • Skydance has acquired around 50% of Paramount Global’s (PARA) controlling shares at around USD 15.00/shr, CNBC reports citing sources.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes amid softer yields and dovish-leaning comments from Fed Chair Powell, although gains were capped and China lagged on weak Caixin PMI data. ASX 200 kept afloat amid strength in the commodity-related sectors and with some encouragement from the better-than-expected Retail Sales and Building Approvals data from Australia. Nikkei 225 was underpinned and further extended above the 40,000 level on the back of recent currency weakness. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed in which the former attempted to reclaim the 18,000 status, while the mainland bucked the trend after Caixin Services PMI data disappointed and amid lingering global frictions as European officials alleged that China is building and testing lethal attack drones for Russia.

Top Asian News

  • EU reportedly targets China’s Temu and Shein with proposals for an import duty, according to FT.
  • South Korean President Yoon said they have prepared KRW 25tln worth of support measures for small businesses and will provide tax benefits to companies actively raising dividend payouts, while they will address structural problems causing high local food prices.
  • China’s PCA says Chinese prelim retail car sales (Jun) -8% Y/Y, 2% M/M.

European bourses are higher across the board as the region catches up to the Wall St. handover and continues generally strong APAC performance, Stoxx 600 +0.8%. CAC 40, +1.1%, the European outperformer as the agreement between ENS & NFP has seemingly held regarding candidate withdrawals into Sunday’s second round. No overarching bias or theme across the sectors; Tech gains after broker activity on ASM International & BE Semiconductor while Insurance once again lags amid the progression of Beryl. Stateside, futures flat and holding onto Tuesday’s gains into a packed and frontloaded session on account of Independence Day on Thursday, ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%.

Top European News

  • Former UK PM Boris Johnson joined the Tory election campaign and said that current PM Sunak asked him to join the campaign, while he compared their differences as “trivial” to the threat of Labour leader Starmer, according to The Sun’s Political Editor Harry Cole.
  • Riksbank Minutes (Jun): Overall, the minutes chime with the tone of the last meeting which had two/three H2-2024 cuts as a possibility with the main potential headwinds being the SEK and inflation (in the context of May’s hotter print). Notably, only Breman was explicit in saying the next cut and first H2 one is likely to occur in August.

FX

  • DXY under pressure and holding near the 105.59 low with peers generally firmer as the USD continues to feel the weight of Powell’s remarks and looks to the mentioned data deluge.
  • Euro modestly firmer but EUR/USD yet to revisit Tuesday’s 1.0776 peak. Limited reaction to the Final PMIs and nothing noteworthy from the Sintra conference thus far; heft OpEx in EUR/USD.
  • GBP similarly a touch firmer against the USD but once again looses out slightly against the EUR, Cable at its 1.2701 peak. No reaction to PMIs as we count down to Thursday’s UK election.
  • USD/JPY hit another multi-decade peak of 161.97 overnight, action since limited with nothing of note from Japanese officials on the move.
  • Antipodeans firmer given the risk tone, though NZD/USD us yet to re-test the 0.61 handle.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1312 vs exp. 7.2633 (prev. 7.1291).

Fixed Income

  • OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed to 67.8bps at best, though still circa. 20bps above pre-election levels; a narrowing which comes as the centre-left deal to prevent a RN majority appears to be holding with Ipsos remarking that an “absolute majority seems very unlikely” for RN.
  • Bunds spent the first half of the session near the unchanged mark before fading on the PMIs and then slipping below Tusesady’s130.28 base but with still someway to go before the figure itself.
  • No real reaction to the new German 2034 Bund auction, with the results perhaps marginally softer than is usually the case but not necessarily surprising given the trick environment it entered.
  • Gilts await Thursday’s UK election, fleeting downticks on upwardly revised final PMIs but the benchmark is yet to meaningfully deviate from 97.00
  • Stateside, Treasuries lower but above Tuesday’s 109-07 base as we enter a packed and frontloaded session on account of Thursday’s US Independence Day; data, FOMC Minutes and 3,10,30yr size announcements the highlights.
  • Germany sells EUR 4.072bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.60% 2034 Bund: b/c 1.9 x, average yield 2.63%, retention 18.56%.
  • Japanese gov’t is targeting issuing a new floating-rate note from FY26, with two- & five-year maturities seen as options, via Reuters citing sources; to mitigate investors’ risk from increasing yields.

Crude

  • Crude benchmarks began the session firmer and were propped up by the much larger-than-expected draw in headline crude inventories, though this was offset somewhat by the gasoline build. Thereafter, benchmarks waned from best with specifics light into the US morning. WTI Aug and Brent Sep at lows of USD 62.77/bbl and USD 86.23/bbl respectively.
  • Precious metals benefit from USD pressure and after the dovish commentary from Powell on Tuesday. XAU above the USD 2338/oz 50-DMA with the next point of significance being USD 2368/oz from 21st June.
  • Base metals surged given APAC strength and the above while the likes of iron ore among the outperformers as participants cite supportive near-term demand and lingering expectations of Chinese stimulus.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.2mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate -0.7mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +0.4mln.
  • Lyondellbasell (LYB) Houston Refinery (268k BPD) reports flaring.
  • NHC says Hurricane Beryl is expected to bring life-threatening winds and a storm surge to Jamaica later today, Cayman Islands tonight/Thursday.

Geopolitics

  • Israeli army said it shelled Hezbollah positions last night in the areas of Blida, Yaron, Tair Harfa and Aitaroun in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Palestinian Health Ministry said four were killed in an Israeli strike on West Bank’s Nur Shams Refugee Camp, according to Reuters.
  • US State Department said it has seen disturbing reports of the Israeli army’s use of civilians as human shields and it called on Israel again to investigate quickly and ensure accountability for any abuses and violations, according to Al Jazeera.
  • China is building and testing lethal attack drones for Russia with Chinese and Russian companies said to be developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, according to European officials familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.

US Event Calendar

  • 07:00: June MBA Mortgage Applications -2.6%, prior 0.8%
  • 07:30: June Challenger Job Cuts YoY 19.8%, prior -20.3%
  • 08:15: June ADP Employment Change, est. 165,000, prior 152,000
  • 08:30: June Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 233,000
    • June Continuing Claims, est. 1.84m, prior 1.84m
  • 08:30: May Trade Balance, est. -$76.5b, prior -$74.6b
  • 09:45: June S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.1, prior 55.1
    • June S&P Global US Composite PMI, prior 54.6
  • 10:00: May Factory Orders, est. 0.2%, prior 0.7%
    • May Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
    • May Durables-Less Transportation, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
    • May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. -0.6%, prior -0.6%
    • May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior -0.5%
  • 10:00: June ISM Services Index, est. 52.6, prior 53.8
  • 14:00: June FOMC Meeting Minutes

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got Q3 off to a mixed start yesterday, with a pretty divergent performance across countries and asset classes. On the positive side, there was a noticeable recovery for French assets after the election results, with the Franco-German 10yr spread (-5.8bps) seeing its biggest decline since President Macron announced the election last month. However, that came alongside more weakness in US markets after investors became increasingly focused on the fiscal outlook, with the presidential election now just four months away. That saw the 10yr Treasury yield rise a further +6.5bps to 4.461%, building on its +11.0bps move on Friday and closing +20.3bp higher than the lows that came after Friday’s soft core PCE. So had you got that data print right in advance you may have got bond markets totally wrong. I thought some of it was month-end shenanigans from Friday but a narrative has built up that due to the aftermath of the Trump/Biden debate, markets should be pricing in a higher probability of a Trump victory and larger fiscal deficits.

In terms of the French situation, the main news yesterday (as we discussed 24 hours ago) was that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally slightly underperformed the opinion polls from before the election. But DB’s economist thinks that their underperformance relative to polls likely reflected stronger participation in urban areas to some degree, in seats that the National Rally were unlikely to win anyway. He writes (link here) that the probability of a National Rally government (minority or majority) is actually now marginally higher than it was before round 1, and there is also the possibility that other MPs on the right or centre-right could implicitly support a minority government. So a slightly different view to the prevailing market narrative yesterday that a far-right majority was less likely. The house view is still a hung parliament though.

The second round will take place on Sunday, but the other parties are now attempting to keep the National Rally from gaining power, and there are negotiations on candidates standing down from districts where they wish to give another party a better chance of victory. For reference, candidates who receive more than 12.5% of registered voters can go forward to the second round, but there is a deadline tonight (6pm CET) for candidates to file papers to go forward, so it’s possible that those who did pass the threshold will withdraw, particularly if they came in third place. So once we know who’s actually standing where, we should get a better idea of the likely prospects going into Sunday’s vote.

In terms of the market reaction, there was an initial surge for equities at the open, with the CAC 40 up by +2.79% first thing. But those gains were then pared back, and the index “only” closed +1.09% higher. Other indices also advanced in Europe, but the gains were concentrated in the south, with Italy’s FTSE MIB (+1.70%) and Spain’s IBEX 35 (+1.04%) both outperforming. Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, the gap between French and German yields tightened back to 74bps, which is its tightest level in over two weeks, whilst Italian and Spanish spreads also fell. Nevertheless, yields still moved higher across the continent, and in absolute terms, the French 10yr yield (+5.1bps) was up to 3.349%, which is its highest closing level since November, whilst those on 10yr bunds were up by +10.7bps on the day. The US bond move from Friday afternoon was a big influence.

Well after the European close, ECB President Lagarde spoke at the annual retreat in Sintra, Portugal. She struck a slightly more hawkish tone, saying that Europe’s “still facing several uncertainties regarding future inflation, especially in terms of how the nexus of profits, wages and productivity will evolve and whether the economy will be hit by new supply-side shocks.” She added, “ It will take time for us to gather sufficient data to be certain that the risks of above-target inflation have passed.” There is now 38.2bps of cuts priced in by year-end, down -5.0bps from Friday’s close.

As discussed earlier, US Treasuries continued their significant last 36 hour decline from Friday as investors moved to focus on the upcoming election and the fiscal implications. That led to another fairly sharp curve steepening yesterday, with the 2s10s curve up +6.1bps to -29.9bps, having been at -49.6bps just one week earlier. For what it’s worth, this week is actually the second anniversary of the 2s10s inversion in July 2022, so we’re on track for yet more records in terms of this being the longest ever 2s10s inversion. And in terms of the specific moves, the 2yr yield was largely unchanged (+0.2bps) at 4.755%, but the 10yr yield saw a larger +6.5bps move to 4.461%. With the attention on the long end, fed futures were barely changed as the amount of cuts priced in by the December meeting was up just +1.0bps to 45bps. This morning in Asia, yields on the 10yr USTs have edged back down -2bps to around 4.44% as I type.

Risk appetite in the US was dampened by some weak data prints, with the ISM manufacturing for June falling to 48.5 (vs. 49.1 expected). Moreover, the subcomponents for new orders (49.3) and employment (49.3) were in contractionary territory as well so there was little respite in the report. The bright spot came on the inflation side, with the prices paid component down to a 6-month low of 52.1. That backdrop meant that US equities were mixed with tech once again saving the day with the Magnificent 7 surging +1.76%, even as the small-cap Russell 2000 was down -0.86%. The S&P 500 split the difference and was up +0.27%, even while 76% of the index members were lower on the day. S&P 500 (-0.23%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.38%) futures are both trading notably lower this morning.

In Asia, the Nikkei (+0.38%) is trading higher with the Hang Seng (+0.57%) also gaining after returning from a public holiday. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are struggling to gain traction with the CSI (-0.08%) and Shanghai Composite (+0.04%) relatively flat. Meanwhile, the KOSPI (-0.82%) is losing ground after a busy morning of inflation data. Indeed, South Korea’s inflation cooled more than expected, rising +2.4% y/y in June (v/s +2.6% expected), its slowest pace since July last year. It followed a +2.7% increase in the prior month. Meanwhile, core CPI came in +2.2% higher in June than a year before, in line with May’s reading.

In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.13%) is weakening to a fresh 38-year low of 161.68 against the dollar despite some verbal intervention from the authorities. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that he is “closely watching FX moves with vigilance” while refraining from commenting on specific levels.

Finally, minutes from the RBA’s June monetary policy meeting indicated that board members discussed raising interest rates but eventually decided to hold rates steady at 4.35%. The board emphasized the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation, noting that May’s inflation data hadn’t been enough to derail its inflation outlook of returning to target in 2026. However these minutes are slightly dated as a week after the meeting we had a strong CPI print. So our economists believe an August hike is likely.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area flash CPI print for June, along with the unemployment rate for May. Over in the US, there’s also the JOLTS report of job openings for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Elderson and Schnabel

Europe bolstered by the Wall St. handover heading into a frontloaded US docket – Newsquawk US Market Open

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WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 06:20 AM

  • European bourses are higher across the board as the region catches up to the Wall St. handover and continues generally strong APAC performance
  • DXY under pressure and holding near the 105.59 low with peers generally firmer as the USD continues to feel the weight of Powell’s remarks and looks to the mentioned data deluge
  • OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed to below 68bps at best, though is still circa. 20bps above pre-election levels; largely unreactive to PMIs
  • Crude benchmarks began the session firmer after the private data on Tuesday, though they have since waned; metals generally supported
  • Looking ahead, highlights include US Final PMIs, US ADP, IJC, Challenger, Factory Goods, ISM Services, FOMC Minutes, NBP Policy Announcement, US Refunding (3,10,30yr), Comments from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Lane, Lagarde, de Guindos & Knot, Earnings from Constellation Brands.
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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

  • European bourses are higher across the board as the region catches up to the Wall St. handover and continues generally strong APAC performance, Stoxx 600 +0.8%.
  • CAC 40, +1.1%, the European outperformer as the agreement between ENS & NFP has seemingly held regarding candidate withdrawals into Sunday’s second round.
  • No overarching bias or theme across the sectors; Tech gains after broker activity on ASM International & BE Semiconductor while Insurance once again lags amid the progression of Beryl.
  • Stateside, futures flat and holding onto Tuesday’s gains into a packed and frontloaded session on account of Independence Day on Thursday, ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%.
  • Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
  • Click for the additional news
  • Click for a detailed summary

FX

  • DXY under pressure and holding near the 105.59 low with peers generally firmer as the USD continues to feel the weight of Powell’s remarks and looks to the mentioned data deluge.
  • Euro modestly firmer but EUR/USD yet to revisit Tuesday’s 1.0776 peak. Limited reaction to the Final PMIs and nothing noteworthy from the Sintra conference thus far; heft OpEx in EUR/USD.
  • GBP similarly a touch firmer against the USD but once again looses out slightly against the EUR, Cable at its 1.2701 peak. No reaction to PMIs as we count down to Thursday’s UK election.
  • USD/JPY hit another multi-decade peak of 161.97 overnight, action since limited with nothing of note from Japanese officials on the move.
  • Antipodeans firmer given the risk tone, though NZD/USD us yet to re-test the 0.61 handle.
  • PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1312 vs exp. 7.2633 (prev. 7.1291).
  • Click for a detailed summary
  • Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

  • OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has narrowed to 67.8bps at best, though still circa. 20bps above pre-election levels; a narrowing which comes as the centre-left deal to prevent a RN majority appears to be holding with Ipsos remarking that an “absolute majority seems very unlikely” for RN.
  • Bunds spent the first half of the session near the unchanged mark before fading on the PMIs and then slipping below Tusesady’s130.28 base but with still someway to go before the figure itself.
  • No real reaction to the new German 2034 Bund auction, with the results perhaps marginally softer than is usually the case but not necessarily surprising given the trick environment it entered.
  • Gilts await Thursday’s UK election, fleeting downticks on upwardly revised final PMIs but the benchmark is yet to meaningfully deviate from 97.00
  • Stateside, Treasuries lower but above Tuesday’s 109-07 base as we enter a packed and frontloaded session on account of Thursday’s US Independence Day; data, FOMC Minutes and 3,10,30yr size announcements the highlights.
  • Germany sells EUR 4.072bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.60% 2034 Bund: b/c 1.9 x, average yield 2.63%, retention 18.56%.
  • Japanese gov’t is targeting issuing a new floating-rate note from FY26, with two- & five-year maturities seen as options, via Reuters citing sources; to mitigate investors’ risk from increasing yields.
  • Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

  • Crude benchmarks began the session firmer and were propped up by the much larger-than-expected draw in headline crude inventories, though this was offset somewhat by the gasoline build. Thereafter, benchmarks waned from best with specifics light into the US morning. WTI Aug and Brent Sep at lows of USD 62.77/bbl and USD 86.23/bbl respectively.
  • Precious metals benefit from USD pressure and after the dovish commentary from Powell on Tuesday. XAU above the USD 2338/oz 50-DMA with the next point of significance being USD 2368/oz from 21st June.
  • Base metals surged given APAC strength and the above while the likes of iron ore among the outperformers as participants cite supportive near-term demand and lingering expectations of Chinese stimulus.
  • US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -9.2mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate -0.7mln (exp. -1.2mln), Gasoline +2.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Cushing +0.4mln.
  • Lyondellbasell (LYB) Houston Refinery (268k BPD) reports flaring.
  • NHC says Hurricane Beryl is expected to bring life-threatening winds and a storm surge to Jamaica later today, Cayman Islands tonight/Thursday.
  • Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

  • French HCOB Composite PMI (Jun) 48.8 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.2); Services 49.6 vs. Exp. 48.8 (Prev. 48.8)
  • German HCOB Composite Final PMI (Jun) 50.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.6); Services 53.1 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.5)
  • EU HCOB Composite Final PMI (Jun) 50.9 vs. Exp. 50.8 (Prev. 50.8); Services 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 52.6)
  • UK S&P Final PMI Composite (Jun) 52.3 vs. Exp. 51.7 (Prev. 51.7); Services 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.2 (Prev. 51.2)
  • EU Producer Prices MM (May) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -1.0%); YY -4.2% vs. Exp. -4.1% (Prev. -5.7%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

  • Former UK PM Boris Johnson joined the Tory election campaign and said that current PM Sunak asked him to join the campaign, while he compared their differences as “trivial” to the threat of Labour leader Starmer, according to The Sun’s Political Editor Harry Cole.
  • Riksbank Minutes (Jun): Overall, the minutes chime with the tone of the last meeting which had two/three H2-2024 cuts as a possibility with the main potential headwinds being the SEK and inflation (in the context of May’s hotter print). Notably, only Breman was explicit in saying the next cut and first H2 one is likely to occur in August.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

  • US judge postponed former President Trump’s sentencing in the hush-money case to September 18th.
  • Skydance has acquired around 50% of Paramount Global’s (PARA) controlling shares at around USD 15.00/shr, CNBC reports citing sources.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

  • Israeli army said it shelled Hezbollah positions last night in the areas of Blida, Yaron, Tair Harfa and Aitaroun in southern Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera.
  • Palestinian Health Ministry said four were killed in an Israeli strike on West Bank’s Nur Shams Refugee Camp, according to Reuters.
  • US State Department said it has seen disturbing reports of the Israeli army’s use of civilians as human shields and it called on Israel again to investigate quickly and ensure accountability for any abuses and violations, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

  • China is building and testing lethal attack drones for Russia with Chinese and Russian companies said to be developing an attack drone similar to an Iranian model deployed in Ukraine, according to European officials familiar with the matter cited by Bloomberg.

CRYPTO

  • Crypto is under modest pressure thus far, with Bitcoin edging towards but still holding above the USD 60k mark ahead of numerous Tier 1 US data points.

APAC TRADE

  • APAC stocks mostly took impetus from the gains on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted record closes amid softer yields and dovish-leaning comments from Fed Chair Powell, although gains were capped and China lagged on weak Caixin PMI data.
  • ASX 200 kept afloat amid strength in the commodity-related sectors and with some encouragement from the better-than-expected Retail Sales and Building Approvals data from Australia.
  • Nikkei 225 was underpinned and further extended above the 40,000 level on the back of recent currency weakness.
  • Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed in which the former attempted to reclaim the 18,000 status, while the mainland bucked the trend after Caixin Services PMI data disappointed and amid lingering global frictions as European officials alleged that China is building and testing lethal attack drones for Russia.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

  • EU reportedly targets China’s Temu and Shein with proposals for an import duty, according to FT.
  • South Korean President Yoon said they have prepared KRW 25tln worth of support measures for small businesses and will provide tax benefits to companies actively raising dividend payouts, while they will address structural problems causing high local food prices.
  • China’s PCA says Chinese prelim retail car sales (Jun) -8% Y/Y, 2% M/M.

DATA RECAP

  • Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jun) 51.2 vs. Exp. 53.4 (Prev. 54.0); Composite PMI (Jun) 52.8 (Prev. 54.1)
  • Australian Building Approvals (May) 5.5% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. 1.9%)
  • Australian Retail Sales MM Final (May) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)

NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

END

2e) JAPAN

3 CHINA

CHINA/

end

Macron’s Loss Isn’t An End, It’s A Beginning

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Tom Luongo via Gold, Goats, ‘n Guns blog,

To say that I’ve been waiting on pins and needles for the past year or so is putting it mildly. I’m sure I’m not the only one.

This fake World Davos Made in which fat is beautiful, sloth is a virtue, and pedophilia the pinnacle of human love, should have you just a teensy bit anxious.

When we look up and see everything beautiful being systematically subverted, cheapened, or just plain vandalized it’s hard to maintain your compassion, even if it was warranted…. which it isn’t.

Today I come back to write my first public essay in more than a month and we’re a couple of days away from arch-Globalist Emmanuel Macron of France getting trounced by both Marine Le Pen and a fractious left-wing coalition.

Heading into this weekend’s run-offs it’s pretty obvious that Macron’s party, En Marche, will be relegated to the ashbin of history. Macron was a fake populist sold to us by Davos nearly a decade ago to blunt the rise of Le Pen then.

And it really doesn’t matter this time what political ring-fencing the various commies in France do to freeze out a National Front majority in the French Parliament. The tide has turned against them.

It’s not coming back. Just like it has in the UK, the US, the Netherlands, Italy and the rest of the so-called post-Enlightenment West.

That idea right there, “post-Enlightenment,” where we began to reject God for modernity and the supremacy of human reason over the vastness of our ignorance about how the Universe worked, is the key to what’s happening.

And the minute I began writing about Macron I was hit with the memory of Notre Dame burning.

The library was on fire. And the jackals brayed about how great it was.

This happened on Macron’s watch. And he cried crocodile tears for it, as all true Marxist scumbags like him do.

Because they can only have the facsimile of emotions since we all live in a simulation anyway.

At the time I called it a “Symbol of Failing Culture.” But it’s far more than that. Notre Dame’s burning, deliberate or otherwise, was emblematic of how careless our caretakers were about preserving our past.

So obsessed with their pathetic modernity they expropriated nearly all the wealth of France for decades to elevate sloth and neglect beauty while becoming openly hostile to their own history. Their contempt for history was on full display as their rage at religion overwhelmed their basic humanity.

What’s worse to me is descendants of those that built Notre Dame cheering this event because they’ve been inculcated to hate religion of all forms by their Marxist education.

They’ve been effectively immunized against feeling anything but contempt for themselves and their history.

History is history. It doesn’t have an agenda. It exists, for better or worse, to remind us that who we are today is the sum total of who we were then.

Marxists fundamentally believe in creating a man without a history, without connection to his past to mold him into the New Soviet Man.

Argue with me about this all you want Bernie Bros, Corbynites and Richard Wolff acolytes, this is the point of this French post-modernist “life is an absurd simulation” nonsense. It’s simply an excuse to justify the inherent envy at the core of all Marxist thought.

It meant something to millions of people, if not billions.

Its burning was truly a moment of them destroying something beautiful even if the fire was an accident.

Notre Dame was a thing to be envied, for sure. A place of stunning beauty and achievement. A thing worth preserving through the centuries. Of course it had to be destroyed.

The contempt of Macron and his history-challenged fellow travelers at anyone not down with the Commintern was on full display back then.

While they think we shouldn’t have histories, they forget that we have memories.

So, there should be zero surprise today about what has happened at the French ballot box.

Macron and Davos will do everything they can to extend and pretend that they are still in control in France. They may even succeed in saving Macron. In doing so they may even destroy what’s left of France, sacrificing it on the altar of the European Union, but for what?

A meta-stable alliance held together by the scolding of a bloodless German vampire like Ursula Von der Leyen? How long do you think the French go from Yellow Vests to the guillotine?

Because, last I checked, that’s a part of their history Macron is also trying to deny.

*  *  *

Join my Patreon if you are long hemp farmers

Ahmed Duabsha confessed to killing 14-year-old Binyamin Achimair in April.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 3, 2024 01:24Updated: JULY 3, 2024 03:03

 IDF SOLDIERS prepare the home of a terrorist for demolition in the early hours of November 28. (photo credit: SETH J. FRANTZMAN)
IDF SOLDIERS prepare the home of a terrorist for demolition in the early hours of November 28.(photo credit: SETH J. FRANTZMAN)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-808733&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240630_1e6f5f8802be242dc64a28b54b37d1f83bf97ae5&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

IDF forces began demolishing the house of Ahmed Duabsha, a terrorist from the village of Duma, according to Ynet reported on Tuesday night. 

Duabsha had been responsible for the murder of Binyamin Achimair, a 14-year-old shepherd, in April.

The terrorist was arrested on April 12 by The IDF, Shin Bet, and Israel Police during an overnight operation.

Duabsha admitted during interrogation to assaulting the teenager, which resulted in his death.

About Binyamin Achimair

Achimair had been missing for 24 hours before his body was discovered on April 13.

Binyamin Achimair, Missing 14-year-old boy from Samaria, Police are requesting help in searching, April 12, 2024. (credit: ISRAEL POLICE)
Binyamin Achimair, Missing 14-year-old boy from Samaria, Police are requesting help in searching, April 12, 2024. (credit: ISRAEL POLICE)

Achimair had left Gal farm in the Samaria region of the West Bank on the morning of April 12 to allow his sheep to graze, and after several hours, the herd returned without him.

After news of Achimair’s body being found, a few violent incidents – including setting cars on fire – happened in the village Duma, and one person was killed by settler gunfire according to Palestinian reports, Walla reported at the time.

Diplomacy needed to avert Israeli-Lebanon war, Macron tells Netanyahu

“The President of the Republic reiterated his extreme concern about the increase in tensions between Hezbollah and Israel along the Blue Line,” Macron’s office said.

By TOVAH LAZAROFFJULY 2, 2024 23:42Updated: JULY 3, 2024 01:29

 Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and French President Emmanuel Macron embrace following a joint press conference, amid the Israeli-Hamas conflict, in Jerusalem, October 24, 2023.  (photo credit: CHRISTOPHE ENA/REUTERS)
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and French President Emmanuel Macron embrace following a joint press conference, amid the Israeli-Hamas conflict, in Jerusalem, October 24, 2023.(photo credit: CHRISTOPHE ENA/REUTERS)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-808726&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240628_424b03f8b3e014efaae84549abf4ee5167e87802&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

A diplomatic solution is urgently needed to avert a third Lebanon war, French President Emmanuel Macron told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when the two spoke by phone on Tuesday night.

“The President of the Republic reiterated his extreme concern about the increase in tensions between Hezbollah and Israel along the Blue Line,” Macron’s office said.

An Israeli-Lebanese war “would harm both the interests of Lebanon and Israel and would constitute a particularly dangerous development for regional stability,” Marcon stressed to Netanyahu.

He offered to work alongside the United States to help Israel find a diplomatic resolution to the IDF-Hezbollah cross-border violence that has taken place for close to nine months, rendering it impossible for some 60,000 Israelis to live in their homes along that border.

France has a special relationship with Lebanon, given that the country was part of its empire between the two World Wars. It has worked to mitigate that threat from the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah that operates in that country, and which launches attacks against Israel.

 French President Emmanuel Macron gestures as he speaks during an international humanitarian conference for civilians in Gaza, at the Elysee Presidential Palace, in Paris, France, on November 9, 2023. (credit: LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL VIA REUTERS)
French President Emmanuel Macron gestures as he speaks during an international humanitarian conference for civilians in Gaza, at the Elysee Presidential Palace, in Paris, France, on November 9, 2023. (credit: LUDOVIC MARIN/POOL VIA REUTERS)

Fear that Israel would enter southern Lebanon to push Hezbollah away from the border is so great, that some countries have urged their citizens to leave. 

Netanyahu and Macron also discussed the flagging hostage deal and the Gaza war which was sparked by Hamas invasion of Israel on October 7

Macron stresses the importance of a ceasefire

Macron spoke of the importance of a ceasefire that would be followed by the creation of a Palestinian state. It was important, he said, for a reformed Palestinian Authority to resume control of Gaza. It had lost control of the enclave in 2007 when Hamas ousted it in a bloody coup.

The French President told Netanyahu that he condemned Israel’s decision to authorize five West Bank outposts, transforming them into new legal settlements. Such a move, he said, undermined the two-state solution and the peace efforts.

Israel is mowing down their senior leaders

(zerohedge)

Israel Takes Out 2nd Senior Hezbollah Commander In Less Than Two Weeks

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 03:05 PM

Another senior Hezbollah commander has been killed in an Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon on Wednesday. He was killed in a daytime strike on the coastal city of Tyre, in what appears a neighborhood or city area (according to widely circulating video).

Hezbollah in a statement confirmed the death Muhammad Nimah Nasser, also known as Abu Nimah. Regional reports say that he commanded Hezbollah’s Aziz regional division in southern Lebanon (one of three divisions operating there).

His high rank within the organization is confirmed in the fact that the Hezbollah statement referred to him as a “commander” – which it reserves for only the most senior level operatives.

With the situation already on edge, given both sides are warning that ‘all-out war’ could be imminent, the marks the second high commander that Israeli has killed in less than two weeks.

Last month a commander named Taleb Abdulla, who headed the Nasr regional division, was taken out in an Israeli strike. Before that, in January the deputy head of the elite Radwan unit Wissam al-Tawil was killed.

The Associated Press reports that “In a video circulated by local media, residents rushed toward a charred vehicle with a large plume of smoke. Civil Defense said its first responders transported an unnamed wounded person to a hospital.”

Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has told troops during a visit Gaza border that tanks currently completing their tasks in Rafah and now being pulled from the theater can be deployed in the north where they “can reach as far as the Litani” river. The Lebanon river lies 10 miles north of Israel’s border

Joyce Karam

@Joyce_Karam

Major Israeli airstrike in Tyre #Lebanon kills senior Hezbollah commander Abu Ali Nasr, head of Aziz unit…Situation already on edge:

0:41

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العربية عاجل

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“We are striking Hezbollah very hard every day and we will also reach a state of full readiness to take any action required in Lebanon, or to reach an arrangement from a position of strength,” Gallant said.

“We prefer an arrangement, but if reality forces us we will know how to fight,” the IDF chief continued. Israeli leaders have been under immense pressure to act more decisively against Hezbollah, given its daily rocket and drone attacks have meant some 80,000 to 100,000 Israeli residents of the north have been forced out of their homes for months, since near the beginning of the war last October.

Turkey Closes Key Border Crossing After Days Of Syria-Related Violent Protests

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 03:30 AM

Via The Cradle

Turkey closed the Bab al-Hawa crossing on Syria’s northern border amid clashes between occupying Turkish forces and armed demonstrators, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported Tuesday.

Turkey announced the closure of the crossing to travelers, patients, commercial trucks, and humanitarian aid convoys until further notice without specifying a date for its reopening.

The crossing is the most important between Turkey and northern Syria, where Turkish forces established a buffer zone to prevent the presence of US-backed Kurdish forces near the Turkey border.

The Bab al-Hawa crossing is also the only artery for the entry of UN aid trucks and the exit of patients to receive treatment in Turkish hospitals.

Turkey additionally closed the Bab al-Salam, Al-Rai, and Jarablus border crossings as protests erupted against the Turkish presence in northern Syria following mob attacks on Syrian refugees in central Turkey.

Sunday’s mob attacks on Syrian businesses and property in the central Turkish town of Kayseri came amid rumors that a Syrian refugee man had sexually abused his five-year-old relative. Local police arrested 67 people participating in the attacks, in which nationalist Turks burned businesses, homes, and cars.

Social media: The anti-Syrian revolt has spread in #Turkey. Protests took place in Bursa. Syrian shops were attacked in Istanbul. There’re pogroms in Konya. In Serik and Antalya, Turks broke into the homes of Syrians, threw out their belongings and set fire to apartments. #Syria

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In response to the attacks on Syrian refugees in Turkey, angry demonstrations swept through Syria’s Idlib governorate on Monday, which is controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the former Al-Qaeda affiliate in Syria.

The protests also spread to areas of the Aleppo countryside controlled by the Syrian National Army (SNA), a Turkish-backed militant group made up of former Free Syrian Army (FSA) militants.

On Monday, four people were killed in clashes between protestors and Turkish forces in Afrin and Jarablus, while 20 more were injured. “Four people were killed in exchanges of fire between protesters and guards stationed at Turkish positions,” the SOHR said.

#Syria / #Turkey

: Violent anti-Türkiye protests are taking place in Syria. Some of the protesters and #TFSA militants attacked and burned trucks coming from Türkiye. Militants who attacked the trucks can be seen with common 7.62x39mm AKM and Type 56 assault rifles as well.

0:30

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The violence and demonstrations in northern Syria come days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he did not rule out a possible meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to help restore bilateral relations between their two countries.

Turkey severed ties with Syria after the war erupted in 2011. At that time, it supported the FSA and other extremist groups seeking to topple Assad’s government.

Al Qaeda leader, Abu Mohammad Golani who controls idlib province in Syria with NATo backing, calls on all US backed (FSA) rebels to join Alqaeda in a last stand against Syria’s Assad who is currently negotiating with Turkey’s Erdogan.

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Assad has demanded that Turkey remove its forces occupying Syrian land before relations can be restored.

END

Nine Ukrainian Jets Destroyed In 24 Hours, Russia’s Military Says

BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 02:45 AM

The Kremlin has continued to signal to the West that the dozens of US F-16 fighter jets currently being prepped to transfer to Ukraine are as good as dead on arrival. Past weeks of media reports have indicated that a handful of European countries will begin sending F-16s by some point this summer, when Ukrainian pilots complete their training on the advanced fighter.

Russia’s Defense Ministry said Tuesday it launched a major attack on an airfield in central Ukraine, which destroyed and damaged seven Ukrainian fighter jets. The location was identified as the Myrhorod airbase in the country’s Poltava region. Two more were reported shot down in a separate operation.

“As a result of the Russian army’s strike, five active Su-27 multi-purpose fighters were destroyed and two under repair were damaged,” the military announced on Telegram.

The statement was accompanied by aerial footage, and the whole attack was also confirmed by a Ukrainian official who described that the strike happened, but the extent of destruction was exaggerated by the Russian side.

“There are losses, but not at all like the enemy claims because they always do this since the beginning of the invasion,” Ukraine’s former Air Force speaker Yuriy Ihnat stated.

He additionally said to Reuters that Russian reconnaissance drones provided a key role in the attack on Myrhorod and present a “very serious threat” – as they were able to spot the Ukrainian aircraft parked on the ground. “It flies and reports everything in real-time, and then Iskander arrives in a couple of minutes. It is obvious,” Ihnat explained.

In total Russia’s defense ministry (MoD) said its forces had taken out nine Ukrainian fighter jets on Tuesday over a 24 hour period, as two had reportedly been shot down while in flight. According to statements in TASS

Russian forces struck nine Ukrainian Su-27 and MiG-29 fighter jets over the past day in the special military operation in Ukraine, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported on Tuesday.

“Also, nine Ukrainian Air Force aircraft were hit over the past 24 hours. A combined strike by precision weapons against an airfield destroyed five and damaged two Su-27 planes of the enemy’s Air Force. Another two Ukrainian MiG-29 and Su-27 aircraft were shot down by Russian air defenses,” the ministry said in a statement.

Last Thursday the Russian military had announced that it struck airbases in Ukraine which were set up to eventually house Western-supplied jets.

Below is a reconnaissance clip of Myrhorod airfield featured by state media:

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nine-ukrainian-jets-destroyed-24-hours-russias-military-says

The MoD said it used long-range sea-based weapons to attack “airfield infrastructure of Ukraine, planned to accommodate aircraft from Western countries,” according to state media. This included the use of Kinzhal hypersonic missiles alongside drones, the statement indicated.

TASS has also issued the following battlefield data on Tuesday: “In all, the Russian Armed Forces have destroyed 625 Ukrainian warplanes, 276 helicopters, 27,121 unmanned aerial vehicles, 535 surface-to-air missile systems, 16,478 tanks and other armored combat vehicles, 1,362 multiple rocket launchers, 11,215 field artillery guns and mortars and 23,238 special military motor vehicles since the start of the special military operation, the ministry reported.” These huge losses on the Ukrainian side have resulted in Ukrainian officials essentially begging for more arms and equipment from NATO countries at a faster rate.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

end

.

WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY


END

WORLD HEALTH ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, June 24-July 1, 2024

Athletes: US, Canada, Colombia, Peru, Ireland, Germany, Switzerland, Zambia, Zimbabwe, S. Africa, Russia; “vaxxidents”: US (8), Mex., Brazil, France (3), Germany, Austria (2), Australia; & more

MARK CRISPIN MILLERJUL 3
 
READ IN APP
 

Note: Click on the countries links for this week’s compilations of those who “died suddenly” (the individual Substacks are too long to email).

United States

Canada

Mexico, Cuba, Antigua, Colombia, Peru, Brazil and Argentina

Mexico:

Hombre muere segundos después de pedir apoyo para empujar su camioneta en Matamoros, Tamaulipas

Cuba:

News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

May be an image of road

Brazil:

United Kingdom and Ireland

France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Portugal and Spain

France:

Austria:

Italy

San Felice, esce di strada e muore a 34 anni

Nigeria, Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe, S. Africa, Israel, Cyprus, Turkey and Russia

India, Bangladesh, Maldives, Singapore, China, S. Korea, Japan, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand

India:

article-image

Finland & H5N1 & H5N8 avian bird flu & vaccine: can a Nordic nation be as stupid, regressive, misinformed, as Finland at this time? I do not think so; why? well, there is no definitive proof of spread

of H5N1 or H5N8 from birds to cattle or either of these to humans, just speculation; there is no evidence that it causes anything other than mild symptoms; there is no human-to-human transmission, NO

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 3
 
READ IN APP
 

Yet Finland, despite no safety testing of the vaccine, is going to administer it to people. What can go wrong? Is this needed? Finland is the first nation to do this. There are no human infections. So why? Who paid who? Moreover, the Seqirus’ vaccine did not perform optimally in studies. IMO it failed. So why use it? We have never even had a death from bird flu in USA. Any research has been based on antibody levels (immunogenicity) and not actual efficacy or effectiveness studies in humans. We even argue that the Seqirus vaccine will not hit the prevailing strain and thus can drive viral immune escape (it will not work even if there was circulating bird flu among humans which there is NOT).

So why would Finland do this? These people are trying to CREATE or manufacture a pandemic that does not exist, out of nothing, by using the over-cycled over-sensitive PCR process and bringing vaccine for something that does not exist. How incredible is that? We would be driving original antigenic sin (immune priming, imprinting), viral immune escape, potential immune tolerance (class switch) and antibodies derived from the vaccine could attack ‘self’ cells and tissues and organs given ‘self-like’ or ‘self-mimicking’ appearance etc. Thus auto-reactivity/auto-immune illness could likely result. The immune system would attack itself, being unable to distinguish ‘self’ from ‘non-self’. Again, you are introducing vaccine systemically (into bloodstream, likely deltoid muscle and local lymph drainage nodes etc.) when the vaccinal antibodies are needed in the nasal and oral mucosal layer where respiratory pathogen (and behind gumline) usually exists.

Breaking: Trump hush money sentencing now delayed to September 18th…after SCOTUS immunity ruling…seems the ganstas need time to think how to get out of the hole they dug for themselves

dictum is, when you are going to take out your enemy, best to dig two holes, one for you too…

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 2
 
READ IN APP
 

end

Why? Why? Why? Why is Hunter at White House meetings? Was he elected? Is he not facing jail? Why did Manchin threaten to abandon Biden now? He knew truth Biden is non compos mentis? STEPHANOPOULOS

interview NOW not live? Why? They first said Biden will sit with STEPHANOPOULOS but now backing off NOT live? What is the sense because they will edit it, this is fuck shit, pure lies! Biden is DONE!

DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 2
 
READ IN APP
 
Image
end

It is over for Biden, he is discussing how to leave, when DRUDGE writes its now Kamala’s house, & Clyburn, bet your house that the DEMOCRATS are handing over the wheel to VP Giggles & Cackles


let the party begin and 45 MUST demand 2 debates; makes his VP pick very interesting for he will be called misogynist etc. so got to think now…Biden is stepping aside, its over! it is NOT up to him!
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER
JUL 3

 








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he latest reports from Slay News
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The latest reports from Slay News

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIESTrump Vows ‘Televised Military Tribunals’ to Jail Deep State TraitorsPresident Donald Trump has revealed that he plans to hold “televised military tribunals” to jail high-powered Democrats and deep state traitors.READ THE FULL REPORTVIEW MORE NEWS

end

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BOLIVIA

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0761 UP .0012

USA/ YEN 161.93 UP 0.448 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//

GBP/USA 1.2699 UP .0011

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3677 DOWN .0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 14.64 PTS OR 0.49%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 209,45 PTS OR 1.18%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.33%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 50.53 PTS OR .29%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 14.64 PTS OR 0.49%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .33%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 506.07 PTS OR 1.26%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2344.15

silver:$30.13

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 105.31 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.264% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.08% UP 2 AND 4/ 100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.407 DOWN 7 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 4.075 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.6004 UP 0 BASIS PTS

END

Euro/USA 1.0802 UP  0.0094 OR 94 basis points

USA/Japan: 161.23 DOWN 0.253 OR YEN IS UP 25 BASIS PTS

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.1985 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0049 OR 49 BASIS pts  to 1.3629

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2787 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2980)

TURKISH LIRA:  32.56 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.103…

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 10 in basis points from FRIDAY at  4.339% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.534 DOWN 8 in basis points  /12.00 PM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.685 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2363.40

SILVER AT 11;30: 30.56

London: CLOSED UP 53.57 PTS OR 0.66%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 224.01 PTS OR 1.23%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 104.80 PTS OR 1.39 %

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 141.20 OR 1.24%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 407.02 PTS OR 1.22% PTS

WTI Oil price  83,33 12EST/

Brent Oil:  86.22 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  88.47 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND  62/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.5460 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1985 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS

Euro vs USA 1.0782 UP 0.0038   OR 38 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2736 UP 0.0048 OR 48 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.202 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.103%

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 161.66 UP 0.168 YEN DOWN 17 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3636 DOWN 0041 //CDN dollar UP 41 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 8374

Brent OIL:  87.13

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS pts to 4.356

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS PTS to 4.523%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT  4.708

USA dollar index: 105.07 DOWN 34 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.55 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  87,85 DOWN 0  AND  01/100 roubles

GOLD  2,356.50 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.31 3;30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 23.85 PTS OR 0.06%

NASDAQ UP 174.74 PTS OR 0.87 %

VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.09 UP 0.06 PTS OR 0.50%

GLD: $217.99 UP 2.43 OR 1.13%

SLV/ $27.84 UP 0.87 OR 3.23%

end

Stocks, Bonds, & Bullion Soar Amid Political Panic & Macro Meltdown On Holiday-Shortened Day

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 01:00 PM

Well that was a shitshow of a day… politically chaotic and macro-economically depressing on a holiday-shortened (super low liquidity) day (with FOMC Minutes due an hour after the close).

So BUY BUY BUY!!!!

Bonds, stocks, and gold all bid as collapsing ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data (Challenger-Grey job cuts soared, ADP payrolls miss, continuing jobless claims surged, factory orders plunged, ISM Services puked)

Source: Bloomberg

…send the overall US macro surprise index to its weakest since Dec 2015…

Source: Bloomberg

…and spark panic-buying in STIRs, sending rate-cut expectations (dovishly) soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

This helped lift stocks (with Nasdaq and S&P outperforming) as The Dow and Small Caps ended approximately unchanged…

…as Mag7 dominated once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…as evidenced by the NVDA buyback machine being on fire today…

Bonds and stocks rallied for the second day together but since the debate – rates and stocks have decoupled in favor of a Trumpian victory bet…

Source: Bloomberg

The bad news was also good for bonds with yields tumbling across the curve (long-end outperforming) and all now lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was dumped on the dovish bad news…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices spiked on the big crude draw (just like last night’s API) but reversed fast to end modestly lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spiked back up to what appears to be a critical resistance level…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was clubbed like a baby seal, but found support at $60k amid more Mt.Gox headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

With a two year lag, the yield curve is screaming that VIX is way too low…

Source: Bloomberg

…and with jobless claims starting to rise quickly (and spread across states), means simultaneous stress on company balance sheets nationwide (more unemployment means lower demand, stressing the balance sheets of companies who will hang on to their employees for as long as they can) which feeds through to increased equity volatility.

MORNING TRADING//

AFTERNOON TRADING///

Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint (Again), Continuing Claims Worst Since Dec 2021

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 08:39 AM

Following a weaker than expected AP print, jobless claims data is worse than expected too.

Initial claims rose to 238k last week from a revised 234k (and above the 235k expected). On an NSA basis, this is the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims continue to rise also, hitting 1.858 million Americans last week – the highest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The trend (4-week moving average) in initial claims is clear… and is starting to catch up to WARNs and Job Cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Have Powell and Biden suddenly decided its ok to admit reality in order to force a July rate-cut and save the election?

end

ADP

the normally ebullient ADP payrolls disappoint

(zerohedge)

ADP Payrolls Disappoint In June – 3rd Straight Monthly Decline In Additions

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 08:23 AM

ADP reported 150k job additions in June (well below the 165k expected) – the third straight monthly decline in job additions and the weakest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Even ADP’s top economist couldn’t spin it…

“Job growth has been solid, but not broad-based. Had it not been for a rebound in hiring in leisure and hospitality, June would have been a downbeat month,” said Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

Once again Services dominated job additions…

Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers were 4.9 percent in June, the slowest pace of growth since August 2021. Pay gains for job-changers also slowed, to 7.7 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that ADP has under-estimated the government’s official BLS payrolls print for 9 of the last 10 months…

Source: Bloomberg

…or the official data has vastly over-estimated reality?

end

Construction Industry Suffers Largest Layoffs ‘Since Lehman’ As Initial Jobless Claims Disappoint (Again)

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 08:39 AM

Following a weaker than expected AP print, jobless claims data is worse than expected too.

Initial claims rose to 238k last week from a revised 234k (and above the 235k expected). On an NSA basis, this is the highest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims continue to rise also, hitting 1.858 million Americans last week – the highest since Dec 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

The trend (4-week moving average) in initial claims is clear… and is starting to catch up to WARNs and Job Cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, according to (non-government-provided) Challenger-Grey data, the construction industry just suffered its largest layoffs since Lehman…

Source: Bloomberg

That can’t be good, right?

Have Powell and Biden suddenly decided its ok to admit reality in order to force a July rate-cut and save the election?

end

US Factory Orders Unexpectedly Tumbled In May

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 10:19 AM

And to cap a day of serially ugly US macro data, factory orders unexpectedly plunged (-0.5% MoM) in May (against expectations of a 0.2% rise and worse still April was revised lower)…

Source: Bloomberg

The YoY rise in factory orders is just 0.9%… and remember that is nominal… So in reality factory orders are tumbling on a YoY real basis.

After three strong months, Core Factory Orders also dropped (tumbling 0.7% MoM)…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this bad enough to be good news for Fed doves?

Thieves In Seattle Targeting EV Charging Stations Has Reached “Epidemic Proportions”

going for the copper…

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Over the past 12 months, thieves in the Seattle metro area have stolen over 100 electric vehicle charging cables, driven mostly by soaring copper scrap prices. This is incredibly frustrating for EV owners who arrive at these charging stations only to find severed cords and unable to charge.

In the last 12 months alone, thieves have stolen at least 100 EV charging cables across the city in pursuit of the small amounts of copper within that can be sold as scrap.

The thefts are particularly painful for drivers who lack home chargers and are left scrambling to find a way to juice up their vehicles. -GeekWire

“It’s a serious and frustrating problem around Seattle,” said resident Elaine Wong, who entirely relies on public charging stations.

In one year, Electrify America reported that 93 cables had been cut across its charging network in Washington.  

Square profile picture

Electrify America

@ElectrifyAm

#EVCommunity We need your help! We’re asking for your assistance in spreading awareness to put an end to this cable theft in Seattle, WA. If you have any information that can help stop cable theft, please contact Crime Stoppers of Puget Sound at 1-800-222-TIPS.

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Wong pointed out that she had not been to an Electrify America station in months. Some EV owners on the social media platform Nextdoor have complained they have had to travel as far north as Everett to find a working station.

“Cable theft from public chargers has been an issue in this area for over a decade, but has reached epidemic proportions in the last couple of years,” said Jay Donnaway, president of the Seattle EV Association. 

Donnaway said the cable problem appears to be much worse on the West Coast than elsewhere. 

Last week, half of the cables at an EVgo station outside the QFC in Ballard were cut. Thieves have also hit other charging stations across other Washington cities in recent months.

Many of these criminals have only been emboldened to steal because progressive cities are failing to enforce common-sense law and order.

In the San Francisco Bay Area, thieves targeted a Tesla Supercharger earlier this year, leaving drivers without the means to charge. 

Tesla Supercharger station in Bay Area hit by thieves with every charging cable cut

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Thieves have also targeted catalytic converters on vehicles, copper wire and pipe, light poles, and anything containing base metals.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

END

Doggett And Pelosi Show: Narrative Shifts As Top Dem Officially Calls For Biden To Quit, Governors Hold Concerning Call

TUESDAY, JUL 02, 2024 – 01:40 PM

House Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) has become the first House Democrat to publicly urge President Biden to quit the 2024 race following last week’s debate performance which showed the commander-in-chief’s obvious dementia on full display.

Doggett, who has been a member of the House since 1995, says he had hoped the debate against Trump would “provide some momentum” to sagging poll numbers, but that “Instead of reassuring voters, the President failed to effectively defend his many accomplishments and expose Trump’s many lies.”

“My decision to make these strong reservations public is not done lightly nor does it in any way diminish my respect for all that President Biden has achieved,” said Doggett. “Recognizing that, unlike Trump, President Biden’s first commitment has always been to our country, not himself, I am hopeful that he will make the painful and difficult decision to withdraw. I respectfully call on him to do so.”

“I represent the heart of a congressional district once represented by Lyndon Johnson,” Doggett added in a statement. “Under very different circumstances, he made the painful decision to withdraw. President Biden should do the same.”

Doggett’s call for Biden to step out of the race comes as a new post-debate CNN poll reveals that 75% of voters think Democrats would have a better chance in November with someone else as the nominee.

In today’s brand-new CNN poll, former President Trump maintains his lead against President Biden and 75% of voters say Democrats would have a better chance in November with someone other than Biden as the nominee.

@DavidChalian

broke down all the numbers on

@InsidePolitics

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https://twitter.com/DanaBashCNN/status/180818754242605065

Meanwhile, one day after former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) suggested Trump is actually the candidate with Dementia, she appeared ‘clarify’ during a Tuesday appearance on MSNBC to suggest that Biden’s cognitive decline is more of an ‘episode’ than what’s going on at all times, saying “I think it’s a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?”

Watch:

PELOSI STARTS TO TURN ON JOE BIDEN OVER COGNITIVE DECLINE: “I think it’s a legitimate question to say, is this an episode or is this a condition?”

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Let’s compare Pelosi before and after the debate: 

Pelosi before the debate: “This is an opportunity for Biden to show he has the stamina” Pelosi after the debate: “Is this an episode or is this a condition”? Pelosi was complicit in the attempted coverup and gaslighting and has now received her orders to drop Biden. They knew all along. They lied for years. Don’t let them forget.

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Democrat Governors Hold Call

On top of that – as CNN‘s Jake Tapper now reportsDemocratic governors held a call Monday afternoon.

  • Just governors – no staffs – no one from campaign or WH…
  • Organized by Gov Tim Walz of Minnesota for the DGA.
  • On the call Dem. governors expressed concern about what’s going on with the president
  • They know if they come forward publicly with concern that likely will cause Biden to dig in more
  • They were also surprised none of them had heard from him (!)
  • There was discussion on the call about wanting to have a call with the campaign or White House…
  • Some discussion about having VP Harris address them…
  • There was strong sentiment that they needed to hear directly from President Biden
  • They are trying to set up a meeting at the WH …or via Zoom for those who can’t come…nothing is on the books yet….but WH knows of request
  • Dem Govs are not coming in with any specific message– but they feel they need to hear from President Biden

But will Jill Biden allow it?

Meanwhile…

end

May the Almighty help us: Kamala Harris as President???

Kamala Rising: Harris Blows Past Competition In PredictIt Market As Wagons Begin To Circle

WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 09:50 AM

As Democrats wrestle with whether Vice President Kamala Harris has what it takes to lead the Democratic ticket after Biden’s debate performance last week kicked off ‘dementia-gate,’ betting market PredictIt has all but crowned her queen.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1808469354905809218&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Fkamala-rising-harris-blows-past-competition-predictit-market-wagons-begin-circle&sessionId=1459da24873c94913fc13a715c9467c4e0b64ad8&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

The shift to Kamala was sudden and pronounced – though it’s been flipping back and forth between Harris and Biden all morning.

Meanwhile, Democratic aides and strategists are privately saying that Biden’s fate could depend on what polls show over the next few weeks – and that if he falls further behind former President Trump, it could trigger widespread calls for him to drop out of the race.

A CNN poll of registered voters conducted by SSRS in the days after the debate showed Trump now beating Biden nationwide by 6 points, 49 percent support to 43 percent. The same poll showed Trump leading Harris by a narrower margin, 47 percent support to 45 percent.

The poll also showed that 56 percent of Democratic voters and Democratic-leaning independent voters think their party would have a better chance of winning the White House with someone other than Biden. Only 43 percent of these voters said they think Biden is their best option. -The Hill

“We just have to win, and it’s probably easier with someone other than Joe Biden,” one Senate Democratic aide told The Hill.

One of Biden’s strongest allies, Rep. James Clyburrn (D-SC) has said on two occasions that if Biden quits the race, he’d support Harris.

Other lawmakers have echoed this sentiment.

“I think she’s done an incredible job being a partner to the president and leading the party and leading the country, and I think that she will continue to do that,” Sen. Laphonza Butller (D-CA) told reporters on Tuesday when asked whether Harris would be viable in the general election, adding “Everyone is in the spirit of continuing to fight for the American people and win this election.

Harris is also the only potential candidate who could directly assume the Biden campaign’s $240 million in funds since she’s his running mate. All other challengers would face significant issues taking over that money with months to go before the election, DealBook notes.

.That said, Trump still smokes Harris with a 3.1% lead according to 50 polls cataloged by Decision Desk HQ:

According to Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons, who was Harris’ communications director until last year, Harris would have the inside track to win the nomination if Biden drops out.

I think she wins the open convention,” said Simons, adding “Institutionally, there’s no one in a better position than Kamala Harris … She’s very competent, and with the exception of the 2019 presidential contest, she has won every political contest she has been in, even when people bet against her. And hopefully the 2019 process taught her lessons that would make her a better candidate in 2024.”

That said, Harris has sucked as VP – failing miserably as Biden’s ‘border czar’ who presided over the influx of tens of millions of illegal migrants flooding into the United States. She’s also failed at criminal justice reform, voting rights legislation, and administration’s handling of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Harris also met with Central American leaders to address the root causes of migration, which did not result in any significant policy changes or improvements in the situation.

But while politicians circle the wagons, Democratic donors are concerned about Harris, per DealBook.

The tech mogul Reid Hoffman was among her biggest donors in the last election cycle. But Semafor reports that his top political adviser, Dmitri Mehlhorn, told backers of the super PAC American Bridge that switching to the vice president would drive away crucial undecided voters. ​​“Kamala Harris is more threatening to those swing voters than a dead Joe Biden or a comatose Joe Biden,” Mehlhorn said.

And the lawyer John Morgan told The Times that a scramble for a Plan B “could cause more infighting and do more harm than good.”

Is the market now pricing in candidate Harris?

Stock and bond markets now going to have to consider what a possible Harris presidency would look like for the economy, debt, inflation, interest rates etc. Continuation of current policies or different economic moves? Hedge funds already are in their models I’m sure.

Quote

Brian Sullivan

@SullyCNBC

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Harris now above Biden on ⁦@PredictIt⁩ Market speaking – loudly – that Biden will drop out soon.

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twitter.com/SullyCNBC/status/1808493824286617623?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18084938242866176

What a ride she’s been on, eh?

How would you describe Kamala Harris’ political career?

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witter.com/DefiantLs/status/1808493968738431412?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18084940403016


 

TO all our American friends out there:

a very happy and safe July 4 holiday weekend

SEE YOU ON FRIDAY

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