GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $29.90 TO $2389.90
SILVER PRICE UP $0.85 TO $33.35
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2390.80
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.22
Bitcoin morning price:$55,319 DOWN 4990 DOLLARS. bankers doing a good job destroying the value of bitcoin
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $56,674 DOWN 3655dollars//
Platinum price closing UP; $33.35 TO $1033.40
Palladium price; down $2.80AT $1031.60
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 14 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//JULY TO JULY
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 05 Jul 2024 03:53:32 PM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3261.500 UP 60.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1865.88 UP 18.32 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2206.06 UP 2613 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16//.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,359.800000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/03/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/08/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 1
TOTAL: 1 1
MONTH TO DATE: 2,22
JPMorgan stopped 0/1
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 1 NOTICES FOR 100 OZ or 0.00311 TONNES
total notices so far: 2226 contracts for 222,600 Oz (6.92237 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 299 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.495 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5285 for 26.425 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $29.90 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OFF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833,37TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.71 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.85 AT THE SLV//
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.292 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OZ INTO THE SLV//
// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 436.808 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 440.100 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1582 CONTRACTS TO 156,306 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD SOME ZERO LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A NET GAIN OF 3407 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 643 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED TUESDAY JUNE 4 AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, JUNE 7 AND AGAIN ON YESTERDAY’S TRADING
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 997 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.07) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3407 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $1.08.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1825 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S EFP JUMP TO LONDON OF 196,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 28.735 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 997 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED XXX CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JUNE
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 DAYS, total 4625 contracts: OR 23.115 MILLION OZ (1850 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 13.990 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 23.115 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1582 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1825 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 195,000 OZ E.FP JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 28.735 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3407 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 997 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (997) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 299 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.495 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 17,509 OI CONTRACTS TO 472,239 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED XXX CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (17,509 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $32.25 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 8.308TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $32.25 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 28,789 OI CONTRACTS (113.935 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5290 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 472,239
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 28789 CONTRACTS WITH 17,509 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5290 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 28,799 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 5196 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5290 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 17,509 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 28,789 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 8.308 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 5196 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JUNE
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 14,262 CONTRACTS OR 1,426,200 OZ OR 44.36 TONNES IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2990 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 44.36 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 27.906DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.788% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 44.36 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1582 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,306 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1825 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1825 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1825 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1582 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1825 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1410 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 7.050 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $1.08 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.63 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 228.67 PTS OR 1.27% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1.28 OR 0.00%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.11%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed U[ TO 7,2659 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2847/ Oil UP TO 8380 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 87.23/Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 17509 CONTRACTS TO 472,239 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.25 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 5290 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 5290 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5290 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 28,789 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5290 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 17,509 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.25/WEDNESDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS A STRONG SIZED 5196 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN FRIDAY’S TRADING
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (8.258 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 8.308 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $32.25 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 28,789 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 113.975 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.308 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 8.258 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $32.25
WE HAVE REMOVED XX CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 28789 CONTRACTS OR 2,878,900 OZ (113.975 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 235,330 contracts//poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
JULY 5 JULY GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JULY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 19,725.45 oz Brinks real gold leaving . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 133,426..650 OZ Brinks 4156 kilobars or 4.156 tonnes |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1 notice(s) 100 OZ 0.00311 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 429 contracts 42900 OZ 1.334 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2226 notices 222,600 oz 6.92237 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposit:
i) Into Brinks: a massive 133,426.650 oz (4,156 kilobars)
this is a paper transfer into the comex
total deposit: 133,426.650oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Manfra: 19,725.45 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 19,725,45 oz (real gold leaving)
Adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 430 contracts having LOST 35 contracts. We had 19 notices filed on Wednesday so we lost 16 contracts or an additional 1600 oz will not stand at the comex (0.0497 tonnes) as they were ferried over to London where they took immediate delivery of gold there.
AUGUST LOST 7019 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 342,420 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 23 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 174.
OCTOBER GAINED 505 CONTRACTS UP TO 22,004 CONTRACTS
We had 1 contracts filed for today representing 100 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2226) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 430( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract( equals 265,500 OZ OR 8.258 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2226 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (430// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1) x 100 oz which equals 265,600 oz (8.258 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 8.258 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,686,834.101 oz 52.46 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,615,350.758 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,838,185.304( 243.80 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,777,165.754 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,151351 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.332 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 5/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 866,067.400 oz Brinks Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | Into Brinks: 133,426.650 oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 46,143.500 oz CNT |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 299 CONTRACT(S) (1.495 million OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 414 contracts (2.070 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5285 Contracts (26.425 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 1 dealer deposit/
i)Into Brinks 552,126.800 oz
total dealer deposit : 552,126.800 oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into CNT: 46,143.500 oz
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.402million oz/297.900million or 43.10%
adjustment: 0
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawal: nil 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.611MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.900
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 713 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 109 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 64 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE LOST 45 CONTRACTS OR 225,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND AT THE COMEX VIA AN E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
AUG, SAW A LOST OF 75 CONTRACTS TO 1518
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 750 CONTRACTS TO 128,382
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 299 for 1.495 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 81.788 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5285 x 5,000 oz = 26.425 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY (713x) and the number of notices served upon today 299 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 5285 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (713)x number of notices served upon today minus (299)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 28.495 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 28.495 million oz.
There are 69.611 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 834.80 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 436.808 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Netherlands is ready to rebuild its financial system with gold
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-07-03 11:55 Section: Daily Dispatches
11:54a ET Wednesday, July 3, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Our friend the Dutch gold researcher Jaco Schipper today calls attention to a May 15 report from the public broadcasting service in the Netherlands, NOS, about the government’s new fortress gold vault in the town of Zeist:
https://nos.nl/artikel/2475275-hoe-verplaats-je-in-het-geheim-15-miljard-aan-goudstaven-en-geld
At the conclusion of the report an official of the Dutch central bank, Coen Voormeulen, makes a remark that is reminiscent of Dutch gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs’ reporting about the “gold revaluation accounts” maintained by some central banks:
https://www.gainesvillecoins.com/blog/dutch-central-bank-says-gold-revaluation-is-solvency-backstop
Voormeulen says of the Netherlands’ 14,000 gold bars, estimated to be worth 15 billion euros: “The gold is the ultimate reserve if the entire financial system were to get into trouble and nothing would be of value anymore. Then the gold is still worth a lot of money. We can start over with that.”
Starting over with gold does seem to be increasingly under discussion in official circles around the world.
END
Ross Norman: Gold is defying gravity
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-07-02 19:12 Section: Daily Dispatches
7:13p ET Tuesday, July 2, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Ross Norman, former proprietor of London bullion dealer Sharps Pixley, now CEO of Metals Daily, writes today that the price of gold has been rising not because of genuine physical demand but because of options buying on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Norman writes: “The initial effect on spot gold — intended or not — was to bring about a ‘gamma squeeze.’ The Chinese buying gold calls (on the expectation prices would rise) leaves the other side to the trade (bullion banks) temporarily short (gamma) or gold and vulnerable to a rise in prices.
end
4. other gold commentaries/podcasts/live from the vault 180/Andrew’s guest Peter Grandich
The argument for Silver has changed [Video]
ANALYSIS | 07/05/2024 14:16:00 GMT
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by returning guest Peter Grandich, author and former Head of Investment Strategy for a leading New York Stock Exchange firm.
The precious metals experts open with an overview of gold price manipulation and the mining space, before discussing the impact of Bitcoin, BRICS and the changing global order; they close with how Peter would weigh gold and silver in a portfolio.
Timestamps
00:00 – Start.
02:41 – Historical gold manipulation.
06:15 – Peter’s view of the mining space.
10:45 – Is Bitcoin a fellow traveler or another game for the Fed to play?
17:10 – The BRICS currency.
25:00 – Peter’s thoughts on the new multipolar trading world.
29:30 – BRICS accruing gold.
31:45 – The end of the European Union?
35:30 – The impact of US politics on the rest of the world.
37:30 – The Europe & US split.
44:00 – US National Debt
47:45 – How many people realise gold is a first-tier asset class?
50:00 – How would Peter weight gold and silver right now?
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
Crypto Crashes As Mt. Gox Begins Repayments, Long Liquidations Soar As BTC Breaks Key Technical Support
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 10:15 AM
Just over a week after initial rumors – and wallet movements – sent bitcoin prices lower, Mt. Gox – the collapsed crypto exchange – officially began repaying its debts yesterday (on one of the most illiquid days of the year, of course) in Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.
This overhang sparked a major wave of selling pressure across the crypto space (after German and US authorities ‘simultaneously’ moved the ill-gotten-gains on to exchanges – not coordinated on timing to hit July 4th though we are sure, as that would be conspiracy-theory-talk)…
Source: Bloomberg
Repayments are being made to some creditors via designated crypto exchanges per its rehabilitation plan.
According to an X post by the MtGoxBalanceBot account, the total Bitcoin balance on all known addresses of the Mt. Gox Trustee is 94,457 BTC, with 47,288 BTC being moved from these addresses since.
As CoinTelegraph reports, the repayments to the remaining rehabilitation creditors will be “promptly made” after multiple conditions have been met.
These conditions include confirming account validity and creditors’ acceptance of the intent to subscribe to the Agency Receipt Agreement by designated crypto exchanges.
In addition to assuring repayments are made safely and securely, discussions regarding repayment procedures between the Rehabilitation Trustee and the exchanges must also be completed.
According to several Reddit posts and users, BTC and Bitcoin Cash have begun to be repaid and credited to exchanges.
“On July 5, 2024, the Rehabilitation Trustee made a blockchain transfer of the BTC/BCH amount repayable to you as the Base Repayment and the Early Lump-Sum Repayment or the Intermediate Repayment.”
The Reddit post details the email received by Mt. Gox, with “MtGox Co., Ltd.” as the Rehabilitation Debtor and Nobuaki Kobayashi, Attorney-at-law, as the Rehabilitation Trustee.
The selling pressure is coming from ‘long liquidations’ which have soared in the last 48 hours with total crypto liquidations surging $664.5 million over the past 24 hours alone, the highest in two months, according to data from CoinGlass.
The smash-down in Bitcoin forced it back below its 200DMA for the first time since October of last year…
Source: Bloomberg
Other highly traded cryptocurrencies, including Ether and Solana’s, also saw almost 10% drops on the day.
ETH dropped to $2,898, below the key $3,000 level that it held since mid-May, according to Cointelegraph Markets Pro.
Despite the potential selling pressure, the repayments come as a positive for the industry and the exchange’s defunct users, as also highlighted by Mark Karpelès, the former CEO of Mt. Gox. He wrote in a July 5 X post:
“Mt. Gox customers have finally started receiving Bitcoins! After over 10 years I wasn’t sure anymore if it’d finally happen, but here we are finally!! This has been a long journey and I’m happy to see we’re finally getting there, only a bit more.”
More than $9.4 billion worth of Bitcoin is owed to approximately 127,000 Mt. Gox creditors who have been waiting for over 10 years to recover their funds.
CoinTelegraph notes that considering that the Bitcoin price increased by over 8,500% during the past 10 years, the majority of defunct creditors will likely look to lock in some profits.
This is partly why King also expects around 99% of the creditors to sell their BTC. He wrote:
“I’d say 99% of those on Mt. Gox are going to sell their coins the moment they get it. Imagine billions worth of Bitcoin all being dumped gradually over the next several weeks. There is no way to spin this to be bullish, or news that could offset this.”
In another significant development, Bitcoin fell below the average realized buying price of the spot Bitcoin ETF buyers, or $57,979 – considered a significant support line for BTC analysts.
Despite the fall, ETF buyers haven’t started panic selling, as there were only $20.5 million worth of net total outflows on July 3. Grayscale’s ETF accounted for the majority, or $27 million worth of outflows…
Source: Bloomberg
However, Willy Chuang, COO of crypto exchange WOO X points out that “it’s worth noting that despite these concerns, the long-term impact may be less severe as the market gradually absorbs the selling pressure.”
Additionally, Joe Burnett, a former Blockware Solutions analyst and senior product marketing Manager at Unchained, commented on the seemingly coordinated timing of the dump on X: “Announcing a sale of this size is idiotic and creates a reflexive feedback loop.”
Idiotic indeed… unless your goal is not economically rational, and instead ideological.
END
ASIA TRADING//FRIDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.63 PTS OR 0.26% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 228.67 PTS OR 1.27% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1.28 OR 0.00%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.11%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed U[ TO 7,2659 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2847/ Oil UP TO 8380 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 87.23/Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2659
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2847
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.63 PTS OR 0.26 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 228.67 PTS OR 1.27%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1.28 PTS OR 0.00%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.68 EURO RISES TO 1.0823 UP 13 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1,069 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.87 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5650/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.9520 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.360%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.651
3j Gold at $2363.70//Silver at: 30.58 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 81/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.02
3m oil into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and 87 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 160.87/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.069% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8988 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9728 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.330 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.613 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.635 DOWN1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.65…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1980 DOWN 8 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures Flat Ahead Of June Job Report; Bitcoin Plunges
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 08:21 AM
US equity futures are unchanged for two days in a row – having gone nowhere during the July 4th holiday – erasing an earlier attempt to break out to all time highs. At 8:00am ET, S&P futures were flat while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1% as global stocks traded at all-time highs before crucial US jobs data that’s expected to show some moderation in hiring. The US dollar dropped for fourth day to its lowest level in three weeks while the pound notched its longest winning streak in four years as Labour swept to power in the UK’s general election. Bond yields are modestly lower ahead of NFP. Commodities are mixed: oil and base metals are lower; precious metals are higher. Today, the key focus today will be NFP release and any further updates on the US election (our full NFP preview is here). Consensus sees 190k jobs being added, with Goldman calling for a street low 140K; unemployment is expected to hold at 4.0% while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3%, down from last month’s 0.4%.
In premarket trading, tech are once again in the lead: TSLA rose 2.2%, on track to turn positive for 2024 after a seven-day winning streak that’s added about $200 billion in market value. Other techs also rose: GOOGL +39bp, AMZN +23bp; Semis are mixed: NVDA -16bp, AMD +20bp, MU -42bp. Macy’s rallied after the Wall Street Journal reported that Arkhouse Management and Brigade Capital Management have raised their buyout offer to about $6.9 billion.
In contrast with the positive tone for equities, Bitcoin sank to the lowest since February without any actual incremental news, as a “motivated seller” took advantage of the liquidity vacuum of July 4th and the lack of ETF buying to dump several billion in hopes of pushing prices lower. And succeeded: bitcoin dropped for a fourth session as part of a wider crypto selloff. Crypto-related shares fell.
Turning back to equities, a series of soft US economic readings has revived hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates as soon as September, pushing MSCI Inc.’s world index of equities to a record.
“Given other evidence of a cooling economic backdrop — weaker ISM Manufacturing PMI and ISM Service Sector PMI reports — the payroll report could be increasingly decisive for the Fed as it seeks a rationale to signal an easing of rates,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial.
As previewed overnight, the focus during today’s skeleton crew session (where most traders are away from the office), will be the US jobs figures. Payrolls probably rose by 190,000 in June, a step-down in hiring from the previous month, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. Average hourly earnings likely increased 3.9% from a year earlier, the least in three years. The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4%, the highest level in more than two years.
“The US data will be very interesting for a couple of reasons — you see signs of a bit of a slowdown in the labor market, and the market appears for now to have taken that in stride because it does raise the possibility of an easier monetary policy going down the track,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at European digital wealth manager Moneyfarm.
On the policy front, New York Fed President John Williams said Friday that while inflation has cooled recently toward the central bank’s 2% target, policymakers are still some distance from their goal. “Inflation is now around 2-1/2%, so we have seen significant progress in bringing it down. But we still have a way to go to reach our 2% target on a sustained basis,” Williams said in prepared remarks for an event at the Reserve Bank of India in Mumbai. “We are committed to getting the job done.”
European stocks climbed, led by the tech sector. In the UK, domestically focused stocks and government bonds rose and the pound strengthened for a seventh day after the landslide victory for Labour, which handed Keir Starmer’s party 412 of the 650 seats in the House of Commons and a clear mandate to deliver on a pledge of greater economic stability.
“A clear majority could bring some much-needed stability to the UK political landscape at a time of heightened global uncertainty,” said Samuel Zief, head of global FX strategy at J.P. Morgan Private Bank. That “could provide a bit of a kicker for the pound,” he said.
France’s CAC40 advanced for a third day, following indications that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party will likely fall short of an absolute majority in second-round elections this weekend. Still, no matter which party comes out on top in the French parliamentary vote, some investors are betting it marks the beginning of a more turbulent period for the country’s stock and bond markets. The CAC 40 has been the worst performer among major European stock indexes since the snap election was called last month, while at the height of the selloff a metric of bond-market risk soared to its highest since the sovereign debt crisis.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities were little changed as advances in South Korea and Taiwan were tempered by a continued selloff in Chinese shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is steady for the day, though the gauge was still on track for its best weekly gain since mid-May. A measure of regional tech stocks climbed to a record high, propelled by Samsung Electronics showing its fastest pace of profit growth in years. Chinese shares in Hong Kong and mainland were the worst performers in the region, with the CSI 300 Index erasing its year-to-date gains. Chinese stocks extended their decline to a seventh straight week — the longest losing streak since early 2012 — as investor sentiment continues to weaken ahead of the Third Plenum later this month. About 800 stocks on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses closed below their book value on Friday, surpassing the number during the market trough in February and underscoring the pervasiveness of bearish sentiment, according to Bloomberg-compiled data.
China’s central bank took the next step toward selling government bonds to cool a record-breaking rally, saying it now has “hundreds of billions” of yuan of the securities at its disposal through agreements with lenders. “The domestic economy is really weak with May-Jun macro data and feedback from companies mostly turning south,” said Xin-Yao Ng, director of investment at abrdn. Plus, there are “low expectation for economic support from the Third Plenum.”
In FX, the US dollar dropped for a 4th straight session to a 1 month low. A disappointing US monthly jobs report could push down the dollar, Philip Wee, a senior FX strategist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Singapore, writes in a research note. “Once considered exceptional, the US economy has witnessed a significant downgrade in its growth outlook.” Sterling rose for a seventh straight day against the greenback, its longest winning streak in four years. The Japanese yen strengthened for a second day against the greenback to rebound further from the lowest level since 1986 reached on Wednesday. Most currencies traded within narrow ranges amid the wait-and-see mode following a US holiday on Thursday.
In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve in a slight bull-steepening move, following wider gains across European rates market after digesting Labour’s landslide UK election win, which broadly matched projections. Front-end yields are lower by more than 2bp with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads steeper by 0.5bp and 1.5bp on the day. 10-year TSY yields are around 4.34% is 2.6bp richer vs Wednesday’s close, in line with bunds while gilts outperform by 1.5bp in the sector
In commodities, oil traded near a two-month high as Hurricane Beryl portended a potentially worse storm season, while shrinking US crude stockpiles hinted at improved demand. Gold headed for a back-to-back weekly gain.
In crypto, Mt. Gox has begun repaying Bitcoin (BTC) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) to creditors, according to Cointelegraph. Furthermore, Crypto exchange Mt Gox creditors “may need to wait up to three months to receive their bitcoin or bitcoin cash repayments depending on which crypto exchanges they made the claims with”, according to a trustee document cited by The Block. Crypto has been pressured across the session given the above reports. BTC falling over USD 5k on the session to a USD 53.56k base.
US economic data slate includes June jobs report at 8:30am New York time.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,593.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 519.36
- MXAP little changed at 184.57
- MXAPJ little changed at 576.72
- Nikkei little changed at 40,912.37
- Topix down 0.5% to 2,884.18
- Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 17,799.61
- Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,949.93
- Sensex down 0.4% to 79,731.19
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 7,822.26
- Kospi up 1.3% to 2,862.23
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.59%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0827
- Brent Futures up 0.1% to $87.54/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,366.25
- US Dollar Index down 0.15% to 104.97
Top Overnight News
- Keir Starmer’s Labour won a landslide victory in the UK general election after Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives imploded, a result that dramatically reshapes the political landscape while still falling short of a ringing endorsement of the party’s plan for government.
- Global stocks traded at all-time highs before crucial US jobs data that’s expected to show some moderation in hiring. The pound added to its longest winning streak in four years as the Labour Party swept to power in UK elections.
- President Joe Biden is embarking on the most consequential weekend of his political career, knowing that he must restore the faith of voters, donors, and party officials deeply skeptical of his acuity — and that any misstep will prove fatal to his reelection campaign.
- China’s central bank took the next step toward selling government bonds to cool a record-breaking rally, saying it now has “hundreds of billions” of yuan of the securities at its disposal through agreements with lenders.
- Currency traders face a long and nail-biting wait this month until the Bank of Japan’s policy decision on July 31, when a potential interest-rate hike and cut to bond purchases may finally bring some relief to the embattled yen.
- Iran’s presidential runoff on Friday will see the election’s only reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian, face off against anti-Western Islamist Saeed Jalili in the race to run the country’s government.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from the US owing to the Independence Day holiday, while there was also a lack of fireworks from the UK election exit polls which showed the Labour Party are on course for a landslide victory. ASX 200 was contained amid weakness in miners and the top-weighted financial sector. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and initially climbed to fresh record highs but then failed to sustain the momentum as the yen began to strengthen and as participants also digested weak Household Spending data which showed a surprise contraction. KOSPI was boosted amid gains in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics following its preliminary Q2 earnings. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured with weakness seen in automakers after the EU confirmed it is to move ahead with planned tariffs on Chinese EVs with provisional duties effective today, while China is to continue the anti-dumping probe into EU port imports and will hold an EU brandy probe hearing on July 18th.
Top Asian News
- PBoC has hundreds of billions of yuan of medium- and long-term bonds at its disposal to borrow and signed agreements with several major financial institutions regarding bond borrowing, according to Bloomberg.
- China officially sets up a special fund for revitalisation of state firms’ land assets worth CNY 30bln, according to state media.
- China’s MOFCOM confirmed it is to hold an EU brandy probe hearing on July 18th.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki warned of inflation concerns despite recent wage rises and noted that a weak yen is pushing up costs for imports and impacting prices, while he said they are to monitor stocks and FX trends urgently.
- BoJ report is to reportedly reveal broadening wage rise trend, according to Reuters sources; report likely to show increasing number of small and mid-sized firms raising wages.
European bourses have been tilting higher throughout the morning with the region benefitting from a continuation of recent broad gains and as political risk is removed in the UK (election), Germany (2025 budget) & France (polls erode chance of a RN majority), Stoxx 600 +0.5%. DAX 40, +1.0%, outperforms despite dismal industrial output metrics for May with tech names bolstered after Samsung’s update and the index generally benefitting from the German coalition government coming to a draft deal on the 2025 budget framework. UK’s FTSE 250 (+1.2%) outperforms the FTSE 100 (+0.3%) as the domestic economy welcomes the return of a Labour government, with housebuilders in particular benefitting. Stateside, futures have been pivoting the unchanged mark with specifics light on the return from Independence Day into a docket which is dominated by the monthly jobs report, ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%. Foxconn (2317 TT) June revenue +16.1% Y/Y, Q2 +19.1% (-9.6% in Q1). Samsung Electronics (005939 KS) – The world’s largest memory chip, smartphone and TV maker sees a better than expected increase in Q2 profits, as the AI boom lifts chip prices. Sees Q2 profit rising to KRW 10.4tln (exp. 8.8tln; prev. 670bln in Q2 2023), and sees Q2 sales of KRW 74tln (exp. 74.5tln).
Top European News
- ECB’s Lagarde said officials are in no hurry to cut rates again after June’s move and the central bank requires additional reassurance that inflation is headed back towards 2% before it cuts rates further, according to an interview with RTP.
- German coalition government agreed on a 2025 draft budget after months of negotiations, according to a government source.
- Thereafter, German Finance Minister Lindner says the 2025 budget deal is EUR 481bln in size, incl. EUR 57bln in investments. Chancellor Scholz says they will fully meet the 2% NATO spending goal every year; high billion-EUR sum is planned for housing construction. Growth package to be presented on 17th July
UK Election
- UK election exit polls showed the Labour Party is set to win 410 seats for a 170-seat majority, Conservatives 131, Lib Dems 61, SNP 10, Reform 13, Greens 2. This suggested the Labour Party will win the most seats by any party since 2001 and the Conservatives are to win the fewest seats since the party was founded in 1834. The latest results show Labour has won for majority.
- UK Labour Party leader Starmer won his seat and said the people have spoken, while he added that people are ready for change and it is now time for them to deliver. Starmer said in his victory speech “country first, party second” and vowed a transformed Labour Party, while he added that he doesn’t promise it will be easy and they will have to move immediately
- UK PM Sunak won his parliament seat in Richmond and Northallerton, while he conceded defeat in the general election and stated that the Labour Party has won and the British people have delivered a sobering verdict. Furthermore, Sunak said he will continue to serve as a Member of Parliament and he takes responsibility for the loss. It was separately reported that Sunak is expected to resign as Conservative party leader on Friday morning, according to Times’ Shipman
- UK Reform Leader Farage won his parliament seat and said there is no enthusiasm for Labour, while he added they are coming for Labour votes and this is just the first step that will stun everyone.
- Goldman Sachs raises UK’s GDP growth forecast by 0.1ppts in 2025 and 2026 after the UK election; says Labour Party’s fiscal policy agenda to provide a modest boost to demand growth in the near-term.
FX
- A slightly softer start for the USD with the index weighed on by the EUR and GBP as election risk fades and passes respectively. DXY down to a 104.93 base with the 100- & 200-DMAs below and potentially in focus into Payrolls.
- GBP deriving some modest benefit from the passing of any election risk, though the outcome has been nailed on for weeks and Cable itself was unreactive to the exit poll and updates since; at the top-end of a 1.2755-1.2783 bound.
- EUR edging higher into Sunday’s second round of the French legislative elections and benefitting from the main market risk of a RN absolute majority being removed in the latest polls, single currency finds itself in a slim range and holding above a cluster of DMAs.
- JPY outperforms with USD/JPY below 161.00 and testing 160.50. No real move to comments from the Finance Minister or thereafter from a Reuters sources piece regarding a report next week which is set to reveal a broadening wage trend
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1289 vs exp. 7.2704 (prev. 7.1305).
Fixed Income
- Benchmarks generally modestly firmer but very much in a holding pattern into payrolls.
- No move from Fed’s Williams who noted of progress in bringing inflation back to target, with the line echoing Powell earlier in the week who said they have made quite a bit of progress on inflation.
- USTs a touch firmer with the US yield curve mixed but slightly steeper into Payrolls.
- OATs steady into Sunday’s second round; Bunds unreactive to dismal German data this morning with no real or sustained move on the fiscal related updates before or since, with Bunds in a relatively narrow 130.53-130.78 band.
- Gilts gapped higher on the open but initially stalled shy of Thursday’s best before extending modestly but stopping within reach of Wednesday’s 97.78 WTD peak.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks near the unchanged mark. Initially lifted alongside an uptick in stock performance in the early European morning before benefitting further on a steady flow of hurricane and geopolitical developments.
- WTI and Brent around USD 84.00/bbl and USD 87.40/bbl respectively, towards the mid-point of parameters.
- Metals generally firmer; spot gold picking up as the USD slips and as yields having a very slight negative bias into NFP. XAU at a fresh WTD peak of USD 2367/oz, stalling just shy of the 21st June high at USD 2368/oz.
- Base metals similarly supported with 3M LME Copper inching towards USD 10k/T, though iron ore was pressured in APAC trade with profit taking from recent gains seemingly the driver.
- Qatar set August Marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.15/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai minus USD 0.40/bbl.
- Chevron (CVX) announced it was removing non-essential personnel from its Gulf of Mexico facilities due to approaching Hurricane Beryl but noted that production from its Gulf of Mexico assets remains at normal levels. It was also reported that Shell (SHEL LN) said is evacuating all personnel at its Perdido asset due to Hurricane Beryl, according to Reuters.
- Russian Energy Ministry says gasoline export supplies to “friendly countries” now 70% lower than average daily level in July 2023; Russia has ample fuel reserves for stable supply of domestic market.
Geopolitics
- Israeli PM Netanyahu told US President Biden he has decided to send a delegation to continue negotiations on hostages but reiterated that Israel will only end the war after achieving all of its objectives.
- US senior administration official said President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu walked through the draft Israel-Hamas agreement in a 30-minute call and the US believes there is a significant opening for a hostage deal, while the official stated that the Hamas response moves the process forward and could provide basis for closing a deal on hostages and ceasefire. Furthermore, the US official said outstanding issues relate to the implementation of an agreement in which there is significant work to be done and a deal is not likely to be closed in a period of days but they have had a breakthrough on the critical impasse in Israel-Hamas talks.
- Israel’s Mossad chief Barnea is travelling to Doha to resume Gaza ceasefire and hostage talks which will likely take place on Friday and will meet with Qatar’s PM in an effort to bring Israel and Hamas closer to a Gaza peace deal, according to a source cited by Reuters.
- Israeli official confirmed that the Mossad chief will lead a hostage negotiations delegation and another official said there is a real chance for a deal, while it was also stated that the proposal put forward by Hamas includes a very significant breakthrough and the official stated that they can proceed with a deal but it depends on PM Netanyahu.
- Hamas said it did not drop the condition of a ceasefire in Gaza, while it added that Israeli PM Netanyahu did not want a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and requires the movement to lay down arms, according to Al Arabiya.
- Hamas leader said they are waiting for a positive response from the Israeli side to start negotiations on the details of the deal, according to CNN.
- “There are some obstacles before reaching an agreement, including demanding that Hamas not have the right to object to the Palestinian “security” prisoners who will be released”, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli press Yedioth Ahronoth.
- “The army is making progress in Rafah But the fighting is expected to last at least another month.”, according to Israeli press Yedioth Ahronoth cited by Al Jazeera.
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said it is carrying out drills involving mobile nuclear missile launchers, according to Interfax.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: June Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 190,000, prior 272,000
- 08:30: June Change in Private Payrolls, est. 160,000, prior 229,000
- 08:30: June Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
- 08:30: June Unemployment Rate, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
- 08:30: June Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.6%, prior 62.5%
- 08:30: June Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.9%, prior 4.1%
- 08:30: June Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
- 08:30: June Average Weekly Hours, est. 34.3, prior 34.3
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After 31 all time highs in H1, last night saw the first in H2 for the S&P 500 (+0.62%) after a steady rally once Europe went home. Meanwhile yields on 10yr Treasuries (-3.0bps) fell back after a bit of a two-way battle with some dovish-leaning comments from Fed Chair Powell initially sending yields lower, before this was outweighed by a more hawkish JOLTS report as he was speaking. However, after Europe went home US Treasury yields drifted back to near the pre-JOLTS levels. Market may wind down later ahead of tomorrow’s US Independence Day. However remember payrolls on Friday in what will be a lightly staffed US market. It seems like the year for such occurances as payrolls was released on Good Friday only three months ago.
Back to yesterday, one of the main highlights was a panel at the ECB’s forum in Sintra, in which both Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde were speaking. Powell sounded positive about disinflation, saying that “inflation now shows signs of resuming its disinflationary trend”. That reassured investors that the Fed was becoming more confident about the path of inflation, although Powell also pointed out that given the strength of the economy and the labour market “we have the ability to take our time and get this right”.
However, Powell’s optimistic remarks on disinflation were countered by the latest JOLTS report of job openings, which showed a tighter labour market than expected. For instance, the number of job openings unexpectedly rose in May to 8.140m (vs. 7.946m expected), and the hires rate also ticked up a tenth to 3.6%. In addition, the quits rates held steady at 2.2% for a 7th consecutive month, so there was little sign of a further deterioration in the labour market that we’ve seen in other recent data.
On balance, the more dovish tones won out though, and investors became a bit more confident in the prospect of rate cuts this year. Indeed, investors dialled up the chance of a cut by the September meeting from 69% to 75%, even though Powell said that “I am not going to be landing on any specific dates” when he was asked about September. We also saw similar moves in the yield curve, with the 2yr yield coming down -1.45bps to 4.741%, whilst the 10yr yield fell -3.0bps to 4.432%. Intraday the 2s10s curve reached its steepest level since January before re-flattening a bit and closing at -31.4bps. The intra-day highs were just a week after hitting the most inverted since December. The 23.4bps range over the last week shows both the scale of the move in the last few days and also how narrow the range has been since January. This morning in Asia, yields on 10yr USTs are edging back up less than a basis point across the curve.
Meanwhile in the Euro Area, ECB President Lagarde didn’t provide too much news on the policy path, but we did get the flash CPI release for June yesterday, which saw headline inflation fall by a tenth to +2.5% as expected. Even so, core CPI was a bit stronger than expected, coming in at +2.9% (vs. +2.8% expected). In light of that, investors further priced out the chance of a cut at the next meeting in a couple of weeks’ time, which is now down to just 7%. But they still think there’s a strong chance of a cut by the September meeting, which is now priced as a 72% chance from 70% on Monday.
Over in France, all eyes are on Sunday’s election, and yesterday saw Marine Le Pen say that the National Rally would still try and form a government even if they didn’t achieve an overall majority. But other parties have been seeking to stop them reaching a majority, and over 200 candidates have now dropped out from the second round. In most cases, they’ve been withdrawals by Macron’s centrist group or the left-wing alliance in order to stop the National Rally from winning. So there are now less than a hundred three-way contests on Sunday. In terms of the market reaction, yesterday saw the Franco-German spread tighten for a third consecutive day, which is the first time that’s happened since the snap election announcement. That took it down by -2.7bps to 71.4bps, and the moves came in the context of a broader sovereign bond rally across Europe, which saw yields on 10yr bunds (-0.4bps), OATs (-3.2bps) and BTPs (-5.0bps) all move lower.
When it came to equities, Europe saw declines across the continent, with the STOXX 600 (-0.42%), the DAX (-0.69%) and the CAC 40 (-0.30%) all moving lower. Meanwhile the US continued to diverge from Europe, especially with the late rally, as the S&P 500 (+0.62%) closed at a record high, powered by the Magnificent 7 (+1.00%) own record high which included a +10.20% rise for Tesla on better Q2 delivery numbers. Small caps rallied as well with the Russell 2000 gaining a more subdued +0.19%.
Asian markets are mostly trading higher this morning with the exception of mainland China . The Hang Seng (+0.93%) is outperforming with the Nikkei (+0.88%) breaking back above the 40,000 level for the first time in three months. Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.40%) is also edging higher but Chinese stocks are falling following a disappointing reading on service sector activity (more on this below). S&P 500 (-0.14%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.11%) futures are seeing minor losses but European ones are up around half a percent after missing out on the US late rally.
Coming back to China, service sector activity decelerated in June dragged down by slower growth in new orders. The Caixin services PMI fell to 51.2 (v/s 53.4 expected) from 54 in May, marking the lowest reading since October 2023 thus raising concerns over a broader slowdown. Meanwhile in Japan services activity contracted for the first time in nearly two years in June as the final estimate of the Jibun Bank services PMI slipped to 49.4 from 53.8 in May, ending 21 straight months of expansion.
Elsewhere, retail sales in Australia advanced +0.6% m/m in May (v/s +0.3% expected) as against a +0.1% increase in April, reinforcing the case for an interest-rate hike. Following release, yields on 3yr government bonds extended their rise, edging up by +2.3bps to trade at 4.16% as we go to print.
Here in the UK, attention is also shifting to politics ahead of tomorrow’s general election. Today we should get a lot of final opinion polls, including an MRP poll from YouGov at 5pm London time that will have seat projections for the different constituencies. As it stands, all opinion polls still give the opposition Labour Party a decisive lead that’s consistent with them reaching a majority in the House of Commons. For instance, Politico’s polling average gives them a 20-point lead on 41%, ahead of the governing Conservatives on 21%. They’re followed up by the right-wing Reform UK led by Nigel Farage, who are currently in third on 16%.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the final services and composite PMIs for June from around the world, and in the US there’s also the ISM services index for June, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, along with the trade balance and factory orders for May. From central banks, we’ll get the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, and hear from ECB President Lagarde, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Cipollone, Lane and Knot, and the Fed’s Williams.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
UK’s Labour Party secured a majority, US NFP looms – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 01:56 AM
- APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from the US owing to the Independence Day holiday.
- There was also a lack of fireworks from the UK election exit polls, with the latest results showing that the Labour Party has won a majority as expected.
- DXY briefly dipped under 105 with quiet macro newsflow ahead of NFP, GBP/USD traded flat within a tight 1.2755-72 range, and USD/JPY slid beneath the 161.00 level with early pressure seen heading into the Tokyo fix.
- European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4%. FTSE 100 futures rose 0.2%.
- Bitcoin slumped to below the USD 54,500 level after failing to hold on to the USD 57,000 status earlier in the session; CoinDesk cited crypto exchange Mt. Gox moving USD 2.6bln worth of Bitcoin from its cold wallet.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Italian Retail Sales, EZ Retail Sales, US & Canadian Jobs Reports, and Comments from Fed’s Williams, ECB’s Lagarde & Elderson.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
UK Election
- UK election exit polls showed the Labour Party is set to win 410 seats for a 170-seat majority, Conservatives 131, Lib Dems 61, SNP 10, Reform 13, Greens 2. This suggested the Labour Party will win the most seats by any party since 2001 and the Conservatives are to win the fewest seats since the party was founded in 1834. The latest results show Labour has won for majority.
- UK Labour Party leader Starmer won his seat and said the people have spoken, while he added that people are ready for change and it is now time for them to deliver. Starmer said in his victory speech “country first, party second” and vowed a transformed Labour Party, while he added that he doesn’t promise it will be easy and they will have to move immediately
- UK PM Sunak won his parliament seat in Richmond and Northallerton, while he conceded defeat in the general election and stated that the Labour Party has won and the British people have delivered a sobering verdict. Furthermore, Sunak said he will continue to serve as a Member of Parliament and he takes responsibility for the loss. It was separately reported that Sunak is expected to resign as Conservative party leader on Friday morning, according to Times’ Shipman
- UK Reform Leader Farage won his parliament seat and said there is no enthusiasm for Labour, while he added they are coming for Labour votes and this is just the first step that will stun everyone.
- Click here for the Newsquawk analysis.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stock markets were closed for Independence Day.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President Biden said he ‘screwed up’ in the election debate but would press ahead with his re-election bid, according to FT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed in the absence of a lead from the US owing to the Independence Day holiday, while there was also a lack of fireworks from the UK election exit polls which showed the Labour Party are on course for a landslide victory.
- ASX 200 was contained amid weakness in miners and the top-weighted financial sector.
- Nikkei 225 traded indecisively and initially climbed to fresh record highs but then failed to sustain the momentum as the yen began to strengthen and as participants also digested weak Household Spending data which showed a surprise contraction.
- KOSPI was boosted amid gains in index heavyweight Samsung Electronics following its preliminary Q2 earnings.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured with weakness seen in automakers after the EU confirmed it is to move ahead with planned tariffs on Chinese EVs with provisional duties effective today, while China is to continue the anti-dumping probe into EU port imports and will hold an EU brandy probe hearing on July 18th.
- US equity futures were little changed following the holiday lull stateside and as NFP data looms.
- European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures +0.1% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Thursday, while FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% following the election results.
FX
- DXY softened to test the 105.00 level to the downside with quiet macro newsflow from the US post-Independence Day, while participants now look ahead to the upcoming key US jobs data.
- EUR/USD took a breather after its recent advance above the 1.0800 level, while there were recent comments from ECB’s Lagarde that officials are in no hurry to cut rates again after the June move.
- GBP/USD lacked major fireworks despite the landslide victory by the Labour Party which was widely anticipated.
- USD/JPY slid beneath the 161.00 level with early pressure seen heading into the Tokyo fix which later persisted.
- Antipodeans were mildly higher with AUD helped by cross-related flows as AUD/NZD rose above 1.1000.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1289 vs exp. 7.2704 (prev. 7.1305).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures price action was restricted following the holiday lull and with NFP data on the horizon.
- Bund futures nursed some losses ahead of German Industrial Production and comments from ECB and Bundesbank’s Nagel.
- 10-year JGB futures kept afloat following disappointing Household Spending data from Japan.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures traded rangebound after their recent choppy performance and marginally pulled back amid optimism regarding Israel-Hamas negotiations, while Saudi Arabia reduced its premiums to Asia but raised them for North West Europe and the US.
- Qatar set August Marine crude OSP at Oman/Dubai plus USD 0.15/bbl and land crude OSP at Oman/Dubai minus USD 0.40/bbl.
- Chevron (CVX) announced it was removing non-essential personnel from its Gulf of Mexico facilities due to approaching Hurricane Beryl but noted that production from its Gulf of Mexico assets remains at normal levels. It was also reported that Shell (SHEL LN) said is evacuating all personnel at its Perdido asset due to Hurricane Beryl, according to Reuters.
- Spot gold eked slight gains with mild support seen as the dollar eventually softened during the session.
- Copper futures held on to the prior day’s gains but with price action muted overnight by the mixed risk tone.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was pressured and eventually slumped to below the USD 54,500 level after failing to hold on to the USD 57,000 status – CoinDesk cited crypto exchange Mt. Gox moving USD 2.6bln worth of Bitcoin from its cold wallet.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC has hundreds of billions of yuan of medium- and long-term bonds at its disposal to borrow and signed agreements with several major financial institutions regarding bond borrowing, according to Bloomberg.
- China officially sets up a special fund for revitalisation of state firms’ land assets worth CNY 30bln, according to state media.
- China’s MOFCOM confirmed it is to hold an EU brandy probe hearing on July 18th.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki warned of inflation concerns despite recent wage rises and noted that a weak yen is pushing up costs for imports and impacting prices, while he said they are to monitor stocks and FX trends urgently.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese All Household Spending MM (May) -0.3% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -1.2%)
- Japanese All Household Spending YY (May) -1.8% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.5%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu told US President Biden he has decided to send a delegation to continue negotiations on hostages but reiterated that Israel will only end the war after achieving all of its objectives.
- US senior administration official said President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu walked through the draft Israel-Hamas agreement in a 30-minute call and the US believes there is a significant opening for a hostage deal, while the official stated that the Hamas response moves the process forward and could provide basis for closing a deal on hostages and ceasefire. Furthermore, the US official said outstanding issues relate to the implementation of an agreement in which there is significant work to be done and a deal is not likely to be closed in a period of days but they have had a breakthrough on the critical impasse in Israel-Hamas talks.
- Israel’s Mossad chief Barnea is travelling to Doha to resume Gaza ceasefire and hostage talks which will likely take place on Friday and will meet with Qatar’s PM in an effort to bring Israel and Hamas closer to a Gaza peace deal, according to a source cited by Reuters.
- Israeli official confirmed that the Mossad chief will lead a hostage negotiations delegation and another official said there is a real chance for a deal, while it was also stated that the proposal put forward by Hamas includes a very significant breakthrough and the official stated that they can proceed with a deal but it depends on PM Netanyahu.
- Hamas said it did not drop the condition of a ceasefire in Gaza, while it added that Israeli PM Netanyahu did not want a permanent ceasefire in Gaza and requires the movement to lay down arms, according to Al Arabiya.
- Hamas leader said they are waiting for a positive response from the Israeli side to start negotiations on the details of the deal, according to CNN.
OTHER
- Russia’s Defence Ministry said it is carrying out drills involving mobile nuclear missile launchers, according to Interfax.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Lagarde said officials are in no hurry to cut rates again after June’s move and the central bank requires additional reassurance that inflation is headed back towards 2% before it cuts rates further, according to an interview with RTP.
- German coalition government agreed on a 2025 draft budget after months of negotiations, according to a government source.
NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
2e) JAPAN
For years i have said look at Japan for the real turmoil start
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
Labour Set For Crushing 170 Seat Majority In UK General Election, As Conservative Party Suffers Worst Result In Its History
THURSDAY, JUL 04, 2024 – 09:42 PM
The year of record elections continues to serve up dramatic results, and on Thursday, a national exit poll in the UK general election indicated that Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives will crash out of office after 14 years after Keir Starmer’s Labour party was heading for a massive majority of about 170 seats. The poll on Thursday night suggested Starmer will become prime minister with 410 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons, while Sunak’s party is facing the worst result in its history, with just 131 seats.
The result, according to the FT, is “momentous for Britain and will resonate around the world” because at a time when right-wing populists are advancing in many countries, political power in the UK has swung back to a liberal, internationalist, centre-left party.
But Labour’s victory was projected to be delivered on a smaller share of the vote than the 40% secured by leftwing Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn in his 2017 general election defeat — suggesting the public remains sceptical.
Labour’s shadow foreign secretary David Lammy warned: “If we do not deliver for working people, we will be out and nationalists will be on our tails.” He added: “That’s the lesson we have seen around the world.” Meanwhile, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK was projected to do better than expected with 13 seats, a result that would be a big breakthrough for his right-wing populist party.
The first two constituencies to report results on Thursday evening, both in the north of England, showed Labour wins with Reform in second place.
Labour’s victory is a personal triumph for Starmer, who took over the party’s leadership in 2020 after the party’s worst election defeat in almost a century. His projected victory is similar in scale to Sir Tony Blair’s 1997 Labour landslide.
That said, while the Ipsos exit poll is usually a reliable predictor of overall results, the final result may still differ. Vote counts from individual constituencies will trickle in through the night, with Labour, if the polls are correct, likely to have a clear majority by 5am.
According to the exit survey, the centrist Liberal Democrats was on course to win 61 seats, close to the 62-seat record set by the party in 2005. The Lib Dems are forecast to make big gains in the Tory “blue wall” of rich constituencies in the south of England. The Scottish National party was set to come behind Labour in Scotland with just 10 seats, according to the exit poll, putting a serious dent in the party’s dream of securing independence.
The survey exposed the overwhelming sentiment reported by candidates from all parties that Britain wanted “change”, with many senior Tories admitting during the campaign that the party looked exhausted. The UK has been under Conservative rule for 14 years, during which time there have been five prime ministers, with a near catastrophic banking and bond market crisis erupting during the brief reign of Liz Truss. The period was marked by economic austerity, Brexit, the coronavirus pandemic and an energy price shock.
Former Tory minister Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said it was “clearly a terrible night” and added that the Conservatives had taken votes for granted.
Starmer is set to become only the seventh Labour prime minister in the party’s history, and his victory is the first since 2005 for the center-left party. Labour last ousted the Tories from power in 1997, when Tony Blair became prime minister in a crushing victory over John Major’s Tories. He will move into 10 Downing Street on Friday and immediately form his cabinet, with an instruction to ministers to quickly deliver policies to jolt Britain out of its low-growth torpor.
The exit poll indicated that Starmer’s avowedly pro-growth, pro-business agenda has paid off, as Labour bucked international political trends. Far-right parties have performed strongly in recent elections for the European and French parliaments, while in the US, Donald Trump is leading in polls for the presidential race.
Labour’s chancellor-in-waiting Rachel Reeves has said she hopes investors will now see the UK as a “safe haven” although once the UK unleashes the next spending spree to fund all the various welfare projects, we fully expect another quick funding crisis and even more QE.
Starmer has promised to work with business to stimulate growth, with an agenda that includes planning reform and state investment in green technology. Labour will also pursue a traditional agenda of reforms to worker rights.
As for outgoing PM Sunak, the result is a personal disaster. He chose to hold an early election on July 4 — against the advice of his campaign chief Isaac Levido — and ran an error-strewn six-week attempt to turn around his party’s fortunes.
The party’s projected total of 131 seats is lower than the party’s worst-ever result of 156 in 1906. Starmer’s expected seat haul is close to the 418 seats won by Tony Blair in his 1997 landslide victory.
A number of senior Tory figures are expected to lose their seats on a night of devastation, reducing the cast list of potential contenders for the party leadership if, as expected, Sunak stands down. Among the cabinet ministers deemed to be at risk by the exit poll are Penny Mordaunt, Jeremy Hunt, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Grant Shapps, with results due in their seats in the early hours.
end
HUNGARY/EU
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS
Mossad: Israel studying a Hamas response to the hostage deal proposal
“Israel is evaluating the remarks and will convey its reply to the mediators,” it said.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFJULY 3, 2024 21:21Updated: JULY 3, 2024 23:21
Israel is studying the latest Hamas response to a three-phase proposal to secure the release of the remaining 120 hostages in Gaza, the Mossad said in an unusual statement on Wednesday night.
“The hostage deal mediators have conveyed to the negotiating team Hamas’s remarks on the outline of the hostage deal. Israel is evaluating the remarks and will relay its reply to the mediators,” it said.
A Hamas source said on Wednesday that the group exchanged “some ideas” with mediators on how to end the war in Gaza.
The hostage deal has been mediated by Qatar and Egypt, aided by the United States. US President Joe Biden, however, has personally taken the diplomatic lead on the hostage deal, unveiling the latest proposal from the White House on May 31. The United States also secured the support of the United Nations Security Council for the deal.
The United States has said in the past that Hamas had rejected the proposal that Biden laid out but that the US has pressed the terror group to reconsider. American officials have said that the US, with the help of Egypt and Qatar, is looking to close the gaps.
An Israeli security source said that “Hamas continues to insist on a principal clause in the outline that would prevent Israel from returning to fight after phase one of the proposal, something that is unacceptable to Israel.”
“There are other gaps that have not yet been closed,” the source added.
“Israel will keep at the negotiations while continuing the military and diplomatic pressure to bring about the release of all 120 of our hostages, both living and dead,” the source stated.
Claims of hostages taking their lives
Earlier in the day, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed that some of the hostages had tried to kill themselves out of desperation.
“Some enemy prisoners have attempted suicide as a result of the extreme frustration they are feeling due to their government’s neglect of their cause,” Al Quds Brigades spokesperson Abu Hamza al-Masri said in a post on Telegram.
“We will keep treating Israeli hostages the same way Israel treats our prisoners,” he warned.
The Palestinian militant group did not specify what measures it had taken against Israeli hostages. The PIJ and Hamas draw an equivalency between the hostages seized from Israeli territory during the October 7 massacre and the Palestinians jailed by Israel for security offenses, including terrorist attacks.
All hostage deal proposals have included the release of hostages in exchange for a release of Palestinian security prisoners.
But the stumbling block has remained Hamas’s insistence on a permanent ceasefire before the start of the three-phased deal, which allows in the first stage for a lull in the fighting at the price of the release of 33 of the hostages. The issue of a permanent ceasefire would only be decided on prior to the start of the second phase.
Hamas also wants a total IDF withdrawal from the enclave before any deal gets underway. Israel has rejected this idea outright.
KAN News reported that there was a specific request that Israel withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor as a first step toward a deal and as a confidence-building measure.
Commitment to deal
The US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew spoke twice on Wednesday about the importance of securing a deal that would lead to a permanent Gaza ceasefire.
“This plan offers an opportunity to wind down the war in Gaza, recover the hostages, and ensure that Hamas no longer governs Gaza,” Lew said at a toned-down July 4th celebration in Jerusalem.
At an inauguration of the House-Knesset Parliamentary Friendship Group in the parliament building earlier in the day, Lew said, “Our efforts to bring the hostages home will not cease until we succeed.”
President Isaac Herzog, who spoke at the July 4th celebration, added, “Of course, we do not forget our hostages for a moment, including [the] American citizens being held by Hamas in Gaza. Ambassador Lew, I know that you and President Biden are doing everything possible to bring all of our hostages home. And I thank you from the bottom of my heart. Our commitment to bringing the hostages home is absolute. I meet hostage families almost every day. And I want to state clearly: We haven’t forgotten them for a moment. The nation hasn’t forgotten them for a moment.
“There isn’t an Israeli household or family where thoughts of the hostages aren’t present. There isn’t a synagogue service, a public event, or even private occasions where concern for the hostages isn’t voiced clearly; where a prayer, an outcry, and a demand for their immediate return don’t reverberate.
“Everybody wants them home. An overwhelming majority is in favor of the deal. The expectation that the country brings them home is at the heart of the Israeli consensus,” Herzog said.
The Hostage and Missing Families Forum has continued to express its frustration at the absence of a deal, calling on the government to strike one now. The mothers of those held in Gaza plan to hold a special march in Tel Aviv on Friday calling for their children to be freed.
Reuters contributed to this report.
end
Hamas drops ceasefire demand, Biden vows support for Israel’s security
Gallant, Eisenkot say Israel close to hostage deal • Three civilians suspected of killing Nukhba terrorist on October 7
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Court allows for publication: Three civilians suspected of killing Nukhba terrorist
Israeli court allows publication of case involving suspected murder of Nukhba terrorist, denied by suspect, amid controversy over gag order and police appeals for detention extension.
By ALON HACHMON, AVRAHAM BLOCHJULY 4, 2024 22:32Updated: JULY 5, 2024 07:08
The court permitted for publication on Thursday evening that an Israeli who went South to fight on October 7 is suspected of intentionally murdering a Nukhba terrorist.
There are a total of three detainees in the case. One of them, who was arrested in connection with another case, testified that the three detained and questioned a Nukhba terrorist on October 7, and at the end of the interrogation, shot and killed the terrorist.
As a result, the suspect was investigated on suspicion of premeditated murder. The suspect claimed that the alleged act never happened and denied all the accusations against him.
Furthermore, the suspect noted there are body cameras of combatants, where it can be clearly seen that he was not involved in the incident. He added that he assisted the Yamam fighters, some of whom were killed in the same event, and prevented the abduction of bodies.
According to him, he eliminated terrorists as part of the combat but did not interrogate any of them and certainly did not execute any of the terrorists.
The police requested that the Tel Aviv Magistrate’s Court extend the suspect’s detention, but the court rejected the request. Simultaneously, the suspect demanded the gag order be removed from the case.
Legal battle unfolds
The police opposed the suspect’s request and appealed to the Tel Aviv District Court, which permitted the publication of the case. The police requested a stay of execution to file another appeal with the Supreme Court.
The suspect’s lawyer, Attorney Chaim Sharaiband stated, “My client is not connected to the case at all and vehemently denies any involvement in any murder. My client cooperated with the police investigators and even mentioned that he eliminated terrorists in combat as they fought and killed Yamam fighters. This case is disconnected from the events.”
The suspect’s mother told Maariv, “The prosecution is forcibly involving my son in a case and event he has no connection to.
“There is a video capturing two individuals who apparently kill a terrorist, but my son is in no way related to that event and does not appear in that video. The prosecution will be embarrassed by this case because my son does not know Arabic, he did not interrogate any terrorist and certainly did not execute anyone. He chose to assist and fight in the combat zone and indeed eliminated terrorists who were fighting Yamam fighters, but that is all.”
Following the publication, the police stated: “The Israeli Police are investigating an incident where three civilians were arrested on suspicion of involvement in crimes of stealing military equipment and causing the death of a Palestinian during Operation Iron Swords.
“The three detainees include one detained pending trial for theft of military equipment, and two released today under restrictive conditions by the court. We emphasize that all three suspects are civilians and were not part of the security forces during the events.”
MK Almog Cohen of the Otzma Yehudit party responded to the case. “I am happy to hear the release to house arrest of the fighter who saved lives on October 7. He rescued from kidnapping bodies of Yamam forces, bravely faced terrorists, and even stood courageously against false accusations. The prosecution’s claim was (pay attention): If they lifted the gag order, it would harm the hostages in Gaza, using their authority in a distorted manner. Shameful,” Cohen concluded.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
Dangerous escalation
(zerohedge)
New Fires Erupt In Israel After Hezbollah Sends 200 Rockets, Drone Swarms
THURSDAY, JUL 04, 2024 – 01:15 PM
Large wildfires are once again raging in northern Israel’s Galilee region after on Thursday Hezbollah launched a particularly intense barrage of 200 rockets as well as drone swarms.
Some of the fires are believed the result of burning fragments from interceptor shrapnel which fell as anti-air defenses are heavily at work. Soon after, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) sent a stern warning and message to all of Lebanon, sending jets over Beirut which broke the sound barrier. This happened in other parts of the country as well.
The IDF further said the Air Force “struck Hezbollah military structures” in south Lebanon’s Ramyeh and Houla areas. Casualties – whether among militants or civilians – were not immediately known.
Throughout Thursday fires have raged in at least ten locations in the Galilee and Golan Heights areas due to the ramped up Hezbollah attacks.
Israeli emergency and civic services have reported that at least one highway in the area has been blocked as a result of the fast encroaching fires.
Just the day prior, on Wednesday, Israel killed a top Hezbollah commander in southern Lebanon, Muhammad Nimah Nasser, and Thursday’s huge rocket barrage is seen as retaliation for that.
Senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine warned while speaking at Nasser’s funeral, “The series of responses continues in succession, and this series will continue to target new sites that the enemy did not imagine would be hit.”
These ‘new sites’ could include strikes as deep into Israel as Haifa, which would mark a much bigger escalation in attacks. Last month Hezbollah published drone surveillance footage taken over Israel’s port city of Haifa in an effort to spook Tel Aviv leaders.
end
IDF kills two terrorists involved in death of Capt. Alon Sacgiu during Jenin operation
IDF and ISA conducted counterterrorism operations in Jenin, eliminating terrorists involved in an ambush that killed Capt. Alon Sacgiu. Five terrorists were killed overall.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 5, 2024 09:06Updated: JULY 5, 2024 16:19
IDF soldiers directed by Israel Security Authority (ISA) intelligence conducted counterterrorism operations in the Jenin area, the two organizations reported on Friday.
Following the incident in Jenin where in an ambush Captain Alon Sacgiu fell, and 16 others were wounded, both IDF and ISA began precise intelligence efforts to locate the terrorist cell responsible for the attack.
According to the report, on July 3rd, Israel Border Police eliminated the terrorist Nidal Amar. Amar took part in the explosive device used by the terrorists during the ambush.
During the counterterrorism operation, IDF soldiers engaged in exchanges of fire with terrorists and encircled a building where more terrorists had barricaded themselves.
Five terrorists eliminated
The soldiers eliminated Hemam Heshash and another terrorist, both of whom had participated in the attack that led to the death of Capt. Alon Sacgiu.
A pistol was also recovered from the scene.
Five terrorists, the two the IDF reported and three more, were killed in the fire exchange that occurred, according to Israeli media reports citing the Hamas affiliated Palestinian Health Ministry.
Additionally, IDF aircraft struck several armed terrorists in the area.
This is a developing story.
end
FINALLY! it looks like a deal for ceasefire is imminent
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
Israeli delegation returns from Doha after meeting Qatari mediators over ceasefire talks – report
According to a Reuters report, The delegation returned after Hamas officials told Hezbollah that they would agree to a proposal that would lead to a ceasefire.
By REUTERS, JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 5, 2024 17:33Updated: JULY 5, 2024 19:52
An Israeli delegation led by Mossad director David Barnea has left Doha after meeting with Qatari mediators over Gaza ceasefire talks, a source with knowledge of the talks told Reuters on Friday.
The report followed earlier claims that the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas informed its ally Hezbollah it had agreed to a proposal for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and that its leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah welcomed the step, two sources familiar with the matter said on Saturday.
A Hamas delegation headed by the group’s deputy leader Khalil Al-Hayya briefed Nasrallah about the latest developments at a meeting in Beirut, the sources said.
One of the sources, a Hezbollah official, told Reuters that the group would cease fire as soon as any Gaza ceasefire agreement takes effect, echoing previous statements from the group. “If there is a Gaza agreement, then from zero hour there will be a ceasefire in Lebanon,” the official said.
This announcement comes off the back of renewed hostage talk negotiations following discussions between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Joe Biden, as well as Israel sending a delegation to Qatar to resume talks, which the Jerusalem post learned on Thursday.
On Thursday ,Hamas has dropped its demand for an upfront pledge that Israel ends the war, a move that prompted Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to send a team led by Mossad Director David Barnea to participate in further negotiations in Doha.
Netanyahu and Biden discuss on their end
Netanyahu spoke with US President Joe Biden and informed him that Israel would participate in talks based on the latest draft of the three-phase deal which Israel received on Wednesday. That specific proposal deals with the release of the remaining 120 hostages and the issue of a Gaza ceasefire.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah’s message in its large ‘retaliatory’ attacks – analysis
Hezbollah claimed, via Iranian media, it had “launched a barrage of rockets at several Israeli military positions in response to the regime’s killing of one of its commanders in southern Lebanon.”
By SETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 4, 2024 12:23Updated: JULY 4, 2024 17:43
Hezbollah launched several attacks on Israel Thursday morning, beginning around 10 a.m. and continuing throughout the day, mostly involving the use of drones, which have become one of Hezbollah main weapons since Hezbollah chose to begin attacks on Israel after October 7.
Hezbollah claimed, via Iranian media, that it “launched a barrage of rockets at several Israeli military positions in response to the regime’s killing of one of its commanders in southern Lebanon.” It said that it targeted “five Israeli military positions, including with 100 Katyushas that targeted the headquarters of the Golan Division as well as Israel’s air and missile systems at Nafah Base,” Iran’s IRNA reported.
Hezbollah calls this a retaliation for Israel killing Muhammad Nimah Nasser, known as “Hajj Abu Naameh”, on Wednesday. He is the second high-level Hezbollah commander killed in the past month. Another was killed on June 12. Hezbollah responded in June by firing up to 215 rockets and projectiles at northern Israel.
Hezbollah members of parliament have said the retaliation against Israel will increase. “Hassan Fadlallah [a member of Lebanon’s parliament for Hezbollah] stressed that Hezbollah’s punitive response will come, and the enemy should realize that the resistance front has the upper hand,” IRNA reported. Hezbollah continues to warn Israel about launching a large military operation in Lebanon. Iran has also issued warnings about the chances of an escalating war.
Clearly Iran and Hezbollah do not want a larger war, because Iran wants to preserve Hezbollah so it can use it against Israel. Hezbollah has accomplished many of its aims over nine months of attacks. It has depopulated areas in northern Israel, including Kiryat Shmona, an unprecedented “success”, in the eyes of Hezbollah.
A recent article on Iranian state media IRNA, which reprints Hezbollah claims, noted that Israelis who left the North in October, due to the attacks, have become “refugees” in hotels in Israel. This is Iran and Hezbollah’s plan. Their plan does not want a major war because they are concerned about the damage Hezbollah will suffer.
Hezbollah’s true message
The message from Hezbollah is clear from its attacks. It used drones in many incidents on Wednesday between 10 a.m. and noon, targeting an increasingly large area between the Sea of Galilee and Metulla. This included numerous sirens in the Golan and also in the Huleh valley, and communities that overlook the Huleh such as Shamir and Gonen. It also included Katzrin in the Golan. At 11:23 a.m., the area of Hezbollah attacks expanded to target Nahariya, and communities along the coast as well as further inland.
Hezbollah’s message is clear. It has a large enough drone and missile arsenal to chose where and when to attack. It is increasing its use of drones because drones can be precise and effective and also cause set off sirens over wide areas. Hezbollah can then achieve a multi-pronged list of what it sees as “successes.”
It can target with precision, and force civilians areas into shelters. Hezbollah often relies on Israeli media to bolster its sense of accomplishment and sometimes seeks to launder news through foreign media and re-report its own “success” via Al-Mayadeen to make its claims seem more legitimate.
The point here is that Hezbollah’s claims alone do not make them true, but it thinks it makes it seem more accurate if it can get others to re-report its claims. Therefore the increase in attacks in retaliation for the killing of the commander will also be waged online and on media. For instance Al-Mayadeen reported that Israel’s Haaretz had said there are “difficult days” ahead now after the killing of Nasser in Lebanon. It remains to be seen if this is something Hezbollah actually has in store at the moment or if the retaliation will subside after a day.
EGYPT
Egypt has been hit hard and most likely they will default on their huge debt. Also remember, that they get no revenue from the Suez Canal thanks to the antics of the Houthis.
(zerohedge)
Egypt Teeters On Brink Of Economic Ruin As Public Debt Mounts, Poverty Rate Soars
WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 07:20 PM
Last autumn, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi gave a speech in the New Administrative Capital in Cairo, the $300bn project that will ultimately define his presidency.
He said hunger was a small price to pay for progress: “If progress, prosperity and development come at the price of hunger and deprivation, Egyptians, do not shy away from progress! Don’t dare say: ‘It is better to eat.'” This horrifying vision of hunger and deprivation is what awaits millions of Egyptians in the coming years.
A decade after ascending to the presidency, Sisi has pushed the economy to the brink of collapse. The symptoms are everywhere. A severe debt crisis is strangling the state budget, the economy is heavily militarized, billions have been invested in white elephants with dubious economic benefits, and the crown jewels of the Egyptian public sector are up for sale to meet mounting debt obligations.
This all stems from the military’s desire to consolidate power and wealth in its own hands at any cost. This will have dire consequences that will be felt for generations – and recovery will take a mammoth effort.
Millions more people have been pushed into poverty in recent years, a trend that is expected to continue for the foreseeable future. In 2022, the poverty rate reached 33 percent, up from 26 percent in 2012/13, as the regime continues its policy of shifting the costs of the debt crisis onto the poor and middle classes.
The most obvious manifestation of this is the regime’s austerity measures – most crucially, the 300 percent increase in the price of subsided bread, the staple food for the most vulnerable people, which was announced in May.
Transferring wealth
This comes on the heels of price hikes for basic commodities, announced by the government in January. These measures are part of a comprehensive policy designed to transfer wealth from the poor and middle classes to the regime elites and their creditors.
The logic is simple: increased spending on mega-projects, financed by high-interest debt, has allowed the military to rapidly expand its economic footprint, while the repayment of debt is financed through the appropriation of public resources, which is in turn financed by a regressive taxation system.
This creates a diabolical cycle of structural poverty that is very difficult to escape. A cursory look at the current budget highlights this trend, with the main source of tax revenue deriving from a regressive consumption tax, yielding 828 billion Egyptian pounds ($17bn); in second position comes the tax collected from corporate profits, standing at a mere 239 billion pounds ($5bn). It is worth noting that 62 percent of budgetary expenditures will be consumed by debt obligations.
The increase in poverty will be accompanied by another structural transformation, namely the increased peripheralization of the Egyptian economy, which will become even more vulnerable to external shocks and to the goodwill of the regime’s allies.
The figures from the past decade are a testament to this. Despite a spending spree that has consumed hundreds of billions of dollars, the competitiveness of the Egyptian economy has not improved, nor has its industrial base. The contribution of the industrial sector to the GDP fell from around 40 percent in 2013 to 33 percent in 2022, a dramatic drop.
In terms of export performance, Egypt’s current account balance remains firmly in negative territory, deteriorating from minus two percent in 2013, to an expected minus six percent in 2024, based on data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This negative trend is expected to continue until at least 2029, based on the IMF’s available forecast.
Financing gap
This means that in the medium term, pressure will continue on the country’s foreign reserves, which in turn will apply pressure on the deteriorating value of the pound. The situation is compounded by the debt crisis, which is consuming much of the state budget, making public investments to increase economic competitiveness very unlikely.
Indeed, the debt burden is so large that even after receiving more than $50bn in recent loans and investment, the financing gap is still estimated to stand at $28.5bn. This means that in the foreseeable future, the Egyptian economy will require continued external support, in the form of loans and investments, in order to maintain a semblance of stability.
You will find more infographics at Statista
The most notable example is the $35bn investment by the UAE, announced in February, which was critical for avoiding a possible default or debt restructuring – that is, assuming the regime will be able to rein in public spending and put the brakes on its cronyism. Unfortunately, there are signs that this is not the case.
In May, the Egyptian army’s Engineering Authority announced its intention to continue with the third phase of the South Valley development project, which aims to reclaim around 40,000 to 60,000 acres by 2025. It is worth noting that in spite of several large reclamation projects of this kind, the contribution of agriculture to the country’s GDP dropped from around 11.3 percent in 2013 to 11 percent in 2022.
Thus, in all likelihood, the Egyptian economy’s dependence on external capital flows is set to deepen, leaving it susceptible to external shocks, the fickleness of regional politics, and the whims of international financial markets.
Grave consequences
The increased influence of Gulf capital in the Egyptian economy comes with grave economic consequences. Last September, an Emirati firm acquired a 30 percent stake in the government-owned Eastern Company, which controls 70 percent of the country’s tobacco market. The deal was valued $625m. The UAE has also financed the sale of a number of historic hotels for $800m.
This trend will only deepen the structural dependence of the Egyptian economy by depriving the government of important sources of pubic revenue, further straining public finances. This will continue to erode living standards, weaken the pound and send inflation soaring, while also strengthening the political alliance between the regime and its Gulf backers, creating further obstacles for the prospects of democratisation or improvements to workers’ rights.
The future of the Egyptian economy seems grim. Even if the prospect of debt default has subsided for now, the consequences of a decade of foolish economic policy have not.
The ongoing process of peripheralization will enrich a number of local elites, who will align themselves with these new realities. This is not limited to military elites, who will continue to benefit from the inflow of loans and capital, but it will also include civilian elites – the most notable example being Hisham Talaat Moustafa, an Egyptian real-estate tycoon and convicted murderer with close connections to the UAE. A partner in the historic hotels deals, his company’s profits reportedly jumped in the first quarter of 2024 by 220 percent.
Egypt is now undergoing a mass structural transformation, with millions of people plunged into poverty and wealth accumulating in the hands of a few, namely the military elites and their cronies. This transformation will have long-term consequences that are extremely difficult to predict. What is clear, however, is that the economic damage done by the regime goes beyond the debt crisis – and it will take years to reverse.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
Houthi Attacks On Ships Soar Most This Year In June As Critical Maritime Chokepoint Ablaze In Conflict
WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 05:00 PM
About eight months after Iran-backed Houthi rebels began seriously disrupting maritime traffic in the southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, June recorded the highest number of missile and drone attacks on commercial vessels this year and the second-largest since December. As instability in the Middle East intensifies, Houthi rebels have sunk one commercial vessel in recent weeks and have introduced kamikaze drone boats to their arsenal.
Despite efforts of the US, British, and European navies sailing in the critical maritime chokepoint, attempting to ensure freedom of navigation, the Houthis managed to conduct 16 confirmed attacks on commercial vessels in June, according to Bloomberg, citing new data from naval forces operating in the Middle East.
The surge in attacks is alarming, considering President Biden’s Operation Prosperity Guardian, launched at the start of this year to ensure freedom of navigation, has been without success in neutralizing threats and restoring security for commercial shipping. Instead, the consequence of failure has been emerging supply chain snarls and supply shocks, resulting in soaring containerized shipping rates.
“The Houthis have proven to be quite the formidable force. This is a nonstate actor that fields a larger arsenal and is really able to give a headache to the Western coalition,” said Sebastian Bruns, a naval expert at the Center for Maritime Strategy and Security and the Institute for Security Policy at Kiel University in Germany, who was quoted by Foreign Policy.
Bruns said, “This is as high-end as it gets for now, and when navies are having a problem with sustainment at this level, it is really worrisome.”
So, eight months on, the disruption to the critical shipping lane is getting a lot worse as rebels have expanded their use of uncrewed service vessels to attack commercial vessels. These are much harder to track than anti-ship missiles.
And the Houthis aren’t the only problem.
A European naval commander told Bloomberg that criminal groups have reinvigorated piracy networks off the Somalia coast.
Pirates “think there is a window of opportunity due to the Houthis’ presence,” with increased maritime traffic along Somalia’s coast due to commercial vessels re-reouting from the Red Sea to Cape of Good Hope, said Vice Admiral Ignacio Villanueva, who commands a European Union operation tasked with curbing piracy, adding, “They are really trying to stretch the Western, international operations’ limits and capabilities.”
The world is dangerously ablaze as Biden’s foreign policy decisions backfire. Even before Biden, the world was fracturing into a multipolar state, one full of conflict. Now, Biden faces calls from within his own party to step down amidst speculation over his cognitive decline. This is not a great look for America.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/ISRAEL
Israel Should Think Twice Before Sending Some Of Its Patriots To Ukraine Via The US
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
Russian Permanent Representative to the UN Vasily Nebenzia warned Israel of “certain political consequences” should it send some of its Patriots to Ukraine via the US like CNN recently reported is presently being negotiated between them.
This comes amidst the gradual deterioration in their ties since Hamas’ sneak attack last year in spite of President Putin’s proud lifelong philo-Semitism that can be learned about more here. The following five pieces document the lead-up to this latest development:
* 25 January: “Russia Is Worried That Israeli Strikes Risk Drawing Syria Deeper Into The West Asian Conflict”
* 6 February: “The New Israeli Ambassador To Russia Is Totally Wrong About Moscow’s Regional Policy”
* 7 March: “Israel’s Partial Compliance With The US’ Anti-Russian Demands Risks Ruining Ties With Moscow”
* 19 April: “Russia’s Request For UNSC Sanctions Against Israel Is A Principled Soft Power Move”
* 7 June: “Who Might Russia Arm As An Asymmetrical Response To The West Arming Ukraine?”
To summarize, Israel began misportraying Russia’s balancing act in the latest conflict (the details of which can be read here) and flirting with the idea of sending early warning systems to Kiev, which prompted Russia to escalate its rhetoric against Israel and flirt with arming its Resistance Axis foes. Thus far, their spat has remained within the realm of mutual perceptions and rhetoric, but Israel’s potential arming of Ukraine with air defense systems could lead to a reciprocal Russian arming of the Resistance Axis.
The prerogative rests with Israel since it’s easier for it to indirectly arm Ukraine than it is for Russia to indirectly arm the Resistance Axis. Moreover, Netanyahu might calculate that sending defensive weapons there won’t cross Russia’s political red line but might earn him some relief from US pressure, which readers can learn more about here. It’s unclear whether he’ll go through with what CNN recently reported, but if he does, then Nebenzia hinted that Russia’s initial reaction will be political.
What he probably meant to signal was that his country might either host more Hamas delegations in the future, but this time to discuss bilateral ties instead of hostage releases like during prior visits since the latest conflict erupted, and/or order its media to decisively promote anti-Israeli narratives. They’ve been pretty balanced till now, but that could change if the decision is made. Another possibility is to let Syria finally use the S-300s to defend itself despite thus far denying it that right for de-escalation purposes:
* 10 October 2023: “Russia Is Unlikely To Let Syria Get Involved In The Latest Israeli-Hamas War”
* 22 October 2023: “Russia Isn’t Expected To Stop Israel’s Strikes In Syria”
* 27 October 2023: “Here’s Why Russia Didn’t Deter Or Respond To The US’ Latest Bombing Of Syria”
* 11 February 2024: “The Latest Israeli Bombing Of Syria Proves That Russia Won’t Risk A Wider War To Stop Tel Aviv”
* 11 April 2024: “Russia’s Syrian-Based Air Defenses Won’t Help Iran If Israel Responds To Its Retaliation”
Russia is unlikely to reverse course on this ultra-sensitive issue right away after having already provoked so much wrath from many of its supporters in the Alt-Media Community by keeping it in place for so long. Nevertheless, it still remains an appropriate reciprocal measure if Israel arms Ukraine, albeit one that it’s expected to hold off for now since there’s no going back once this authorization is given. In that event, bilateral ties wouldn’t recover for years, thus negating all of President Putin’s hard work on this.
That said, Russia does indeed seem to be losing patience with Israel, and the argument can be made that it has much more to gain by making this long-overdue move and solidifying its strategic ties with the Iranian-led Resistance Axis than it has to lose by clinging to hopes of a regional partnership with Israel. This school of thought was practically non-existent inside Russia’s policymaking communities prior to the latest conflict, but that just goes to show how much everything has changed since then.
The rise of a pro-Resistance policymaking faction parallels the rise of the pro-BRI one, which readers can learn more about here, and they’re practically one and the same due to their overlapping worldviews. Their respective rivals are the pro-Israeli and balancing/pragmatist faction, who are also practically one and the same in this regional context since they want to avert potentially disproportionate regional dependence on Iran by maintaining strategic ties with Israel, even though these are to Iran’s detriment.
While Russia is recalibrating its Asian strategy as explained here and thus appears to be putting a check on the pro-BRI faction’s hitherto astronomical expansion of influence, the pro-Resistance one could receive a pivotal boost if Israel sends its Patriots to Ukraine via the US. That might be the straw that proverbially breaks policymakers’ backs and gets them to throw their support behind this group’s policy recommendations, which could see Russia authorizing Syria to use the S-300s against Israel as explained.
To be clear, the pro-Resistance faction mostly exists only in Russia’s publicly financed international media and among their associates (including informal ones), with barely any influence within its think tanks although some there are warming up to their views. The pro-Israeli/balancing/pragmatist faction remains predominant and that’s why the current policy has remained in place for so long despite Israel’s repeated provocations that could have led to a policy change long ago if the political will was present.
This state of affairs could decisively change, however, if Israel indirectly arms Ukraine with its Patriots. Netanyahu and those around him might not realize what a game-changer that could be in terms of drastically changing Russia’s regional policy considering the way in which everything is increasingly being perceived by the Kremlin given the evolving context of the New Cold War. Israel should therefore think twice about this lest it risk catalyzing the worst-case scenario in relations with Russia.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
Please do not take this shot. It will harm you
(zerohedge)
U.S. Government Awards Moderna $176 Million Bird Flu Vaccine Contract
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Despite what can only be described as a host of looming unanswered questions about its mRNA technology and its Covid vaccines, the U.S has awarded Moderna a new $176 million contract to advance development of its bird flu vaccine.
Stop us if you feel like you’ve seen this movie before…
The U.S. government has granted Moderna $176 million to develop its bird flu vaccine amid rising concerns over the H5N1 virus outbreak in dairy cows and infections among dairy workers.
The funds, provided by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, will support the late-stage development and testing of an mRNA-based vaccine for H5N1 avian influenza, according to The Globe and Mail/Reuters.
Moderna’s agreement with the government also includes options to prepare for future public health threats. The first outbreak in dairy cattle was reported in March, and the virus has since spread to over 130 herds in 12 states.
The report says that scientists worry that the virus could mutate and spread among humans, though the current risk remains low. (We’re guessing this risk could grow in size as we move closer to Election Day…but what do we know?)
Moderna began a study of its bird flu vaccine, mRNA-1018, in healthy adults last year, with results expected this year. Late-stage trials are planned for 2025. Moderna’s mRNA technology, also used in its COVID-19 vaccine, offers rapid development and scalability advantages.
U.S. officials are preparing 4.8 million doses of a similar vaccine for at-risk workers, and the FDA confirms pasteurization inactivates the virus in dairy products.
The best part is they don’t even need to compete with ivermectin or hydroxychloroquine this time.
Now, what’s next on the public health agenda, awarding the EcoHealth Alliance another contract?
New New Study Reveals Ozempic, Wegovy Linked To ‘Potentially Blinding Eye Condition’
THURSDAY, JUL 04, 2024 – 08:45 AM
Shares of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly extended declines after Mass Eye and Ear, a Harvard-affiliated hospital, revealed in a new study published in the journal JAMA Ophthalmology that people prescribed semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Wegovy (Novo), have an elevated risk of developing a “potentially blinding eye condition” called nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION).
“The study found people with diabetes who had been prescribed semaglutide by their physician and then filled the prescription were more than four times more likely to be diagnosed with NAION,” Mass Eye and Ear wrote in a press release, adding, “Those who were overweight or had obesity and prescribed this drug were more than seven times more likely to get the diagnosis.”
The study, which was led by Joseph Rizzo, MD, director of the Neuro-Ophthalmology Service at Mass Eye and Ear, wrote that the “use of these drugs has exploded throughout industrialized countries and they have provided very significant benefits in many ways, but future discussions between a patient and their physician should include NAION as a potential risk.”
Rizzo said, “It is important to appreciate, however, that the increased risk relates to a disorder that is relatively uncommon.”
Rizzo disclosed that his research team analyzed thousands of medical records from Mass Eye and Ear to discover the connection between semaglutide and NAION:
The researchers analyzed the records of more than 17,000 Mass Eye and Ear patients treated over the six years since Ozempic was released and divided the patients in those who were diagnosed with either diabetes or overweight/ obesity. The researchers compared patients who had received prescriptions for semaglutide compared to those taking other diabetes or weight loss drugs. Then, they analyzed the rate of NAION diagnoses in the groups, which revealed the significant risk increases.
Rizzo noted several limitations to the study:
“Mass Eye and Ear sees an unusually high number of people with rare eye diseases, the study population is majority white, and the number of NAION cases seen over the six-year study period is relatively small. With small case numbers, statistics can change quickly.”
Mahyar Etminan, a drug safety researcher at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, who wasn’t involved in the study, told Bloomberg, “This is a very serious condition, so if it were true, it changes the risk-benefit calculus.”
In the markets, shares of Novo Nordisk in Copenhagen extended their decline, dropping 2.6%, while Eli Lilly in New York fell by around 2%.
Earlier, both pharma companies fell after President Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders co-authored an opinion piece in USA Today, urging big pharma to slash the prices of anti-obesity drugs
04, 2024 – 08:45 AM
Shares of Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly extended declines after Mass Eye and Ear, a Harvard-affiliated hospital, revealed in a new study published in the journal JAMA Ophthalmology that people prescribed semaglutide, sold as Ozempic and Wegovy (Novo), have an elevated risk of developing a “potentially blinding eye condition” called nonarteritic anterior ischemic optic neuropathy (NAION).
“The study found people with diabetes who had been prescribed semaglutide by their physician and then filled the prescription were more than four times more likely to be diagnosed with NAION,” Mass Eye and Ear wrote in a press release, adding, “Those who were overweight or had obesity and prescribed this drug were more than seven times more likely to get the diagnosis.”
The study, which was led by Joseph Rizzo, MD, director of the Neuro-Ophthalmology Service at Mass Eye and Ear, wrote that the “use of these drugs has exploded throughout industrialized countries and they have provided very significant benefits in many ways, but future discussions between a patient and their physician should include NAION as a potential risk.”
Rizzo said, “It is important to appreciate, however, that the increased risk relates to a disorder that is relatively uncommon.”
Rizzo disclosed that his research team analyzed thousands of medical records from Mass Eye and Ear to discover the connection between semaglutide and NAION:
The researchers analyzed the records of more than 17,000 Mass Eye and Ear patients treated over the six years since Ozempic was released and divided the patients in those who were diagnosed with either diabetes or overweight/ obesity. The researchers compared patients who had received prescriptions for semaglutide compared to those taking other diabetes or weight loss drugs. Then, they analyzed the rate of NAION diagnoses in the groups, which revealed the significant risk increases.
Rizzo noted several limitations to the study:
“Mass Eye and Ear sees an unusually high number of people with rare eye diseases, the study population is majority white, and the number of NAION cases seen over the six-year study period is relatively small. With small case numbers, statistics can change quickly.”
Mahyar Etminan, a drug safety researcher at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver, who wasn’t involved in the study, told Bloomberg, “This is a very serious condition, so if it were true, it changes the risk-benefit calculus.”
In the markets, shares of Novo Nordisk in Copenhagen extended their decline, dropping 2.6%, while Eli Lilly in New York fell by around 2%.
Earlier, both pharma companies fell after President Biden and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders co-authored an opinion piece in USA Today, urging big pharma to slash the prices of anti-obesity drugs
end
.
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
LIONESS OF JUDAH MINISTRY’s excellent report “Netherlands: Woman (63) Dies From Blood Clots 5 Days After Blood Transfusion; Emser, 63 died from blood clots in her lungs and legs five days after blood
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 5 |
The Other Newspaper wrote that the incident was reported to Sanquin but the blood bank suppressed the report.
Alexander MAGA COVID News; a PCR manufactured COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
When she needed a blood transfusion, she asked the doctors and Sanquin for a transfusion of unvaccinated blood. The doctors and the blood bank did not want to cooperate.’
All blood is safe,” they said. “I am confident that the embolism in the lungs and legs is a direct result of the blood transfusion,” the nurse said.
end
debate stage minute 5.10 & it was HIDDEN from the public that it why there could have been NO audience & CNN would cut away instantly, but the video captured a DEVASTATING image
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 5 |
People I have talked to said he is out! They are figuring out now how to do it with least damage!
If you wish to give a donation to help me you can at
EVOL NEWS
ing into a multipolar state, one full of conflict. Now, Biden faces calls from within his own party to step down amidst speculation over his cognitive decline. This is not a great look for America.
LATEST NEWS:
SLAY NEWS
———- Forwarded message ———
From: Slay News <mail@slaynews.com>
Date: Wed, Jul 3, 2024 at 15:37
Subject: 
Top Oncologist Warns Cancers Are Surging in Vaxxed Patients
To: Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com>
| The latest reports from Slay NewsTop Oncologist Warns Cancers Are Surging in Vaxxed PatientsAn eminent British oncologist has raised the alarm after seeing aggressive deadly cancers surging in his patients after they received Covid mRNA shots.READ MORETop Catholic Bishop Raises Alarm over Soaring ‘Turbo Cancers’ and Sudden Deaths Among Covid-VaxxedA high-profile Catholic bishop has issued a statement to raise the alarm about the soaring cases of “turbo cancer,” sudden deaths,” and other “harmful side effects” being suffered by the Covid mRNA-vaccinated.READ MOREDemocrat Donors No Longer Believe Biden’s Campaign Can ContinueThe Democratic Party’s top donors no longer believe that President Joe Biden’s campaign has a future, according to reports.READ MOREDemocrats Suggests Biden Deploy Military to ‘Take Out’ Conservative Justices and Claim ImmunityA Democrat congresswoman has suggested that President Joe Biden should abuse his presidential immunity to assassinate Supreme Court justices who fail to tow the party line.READ MOREFederal Jury Awards Damages to Research Scientist Fired for Refusing Covid InjectionA research scientist has just been awarded a big payout from a federal jury after being fired by BlueCross BlueShield in Tennessee for refusing to be injected with the company’s mandated Covid mRNA shot.READ MOREJonathan Turley: Trump’s Immunity Ruling a Victory against Jack SmithLegal scholar Jonathan Turley has declared the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on President Donald Trump’s immunity is a victory against Democrat Special Counsel Jack Smith.READ MORENY Times Reporter Reveals Biden Is Doubling Down on Vow to Run for Re-Election despite ‘Debate Flop’Democrat President Joe Biden is doubling down on his plans to stay in the presidential race and run for re-election in November, a New York Times reporter has revealed.READ MOREJudge Allows Victims of Hamas Terrorism to Sue Biden AdministrationA federal judge has ruled that a lawsuit can proceed against Democrat President Joe Biden’s administration over its alleged support of Hamas terrorism.READ MOREPat Tillman’s Mother Slams ESPN for Awarding Prince Harry in Son’s HonorA backlash has emerged over ESPN’s decision to honor Britain’s Prince Harry with the Pat Tillman Award for Service.READ MORECNN Data Analyst Admits Polling Dooms Biden: ‘I Don’t Know How He Wins’CNN’s top data analyst has just delivered the bad news to Democrats, warning that new polling dooms President Joe Biden.READ MOREPolling Expert Nate Silver: Biden Running for Re-Election a ‘Terrible Idea,’ One of the ‘Craziest Asks’ in Political HistoryRenowned polling expert Nate Silver has warned Democrats that nominating President Joe Biden as the party’s candidate for the November election is a “terrible idea.”READ MOREFirst Congressional Democrat Goes Public to Call on Biden to Drop Out: ‘Too Much Is at Stake’Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) has become the first elected Democrat to go public with a call for President Joe Biden to withdraw his bid for the presidential election.READ MOREAlvin Bragg Agrees to Delay Trump’s ‘Hush Money’ Sentencing after SCOTUS Ruling on ImmunityAfter the United States Supreme Court ruled that President Donald Trump has substantial presidential immunity, Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg has agreed to delay the July 11 sentencing hearing for the so-called “hush money” case.READ MORE |
The latest reports from Slay News
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| WHO: Covid Shots Triggered Global Heart Deaths SurgeOfficial figures from the World Health Organization’s global database have revealed that Covid mRNA shots triggered a worldwide surge in heart failure and related sudden deaths.READ MORE |
| Death Rate of American Babies Surges to Unprecedented HighsResearchers are sounding the alarm after a study found that America’s infant mortality rate has surged to shocking highs in recent years.READ MORE |
| Netflix Co-Founder Calls on Biden to Step Down So Democrats Can ‘Beat Trump’Netflix co-founder Reed Hastings has become the latest high-profile Democrat megadonor to call on President Joe Biden to step down.READ MORE |
| Trump Says Biden ‘Quit the Race’ in Leaked Video: ‘That Means We Have Kamala’President Donald Trump was filmed telling people privately that his team has been informed that he will be facing Kamala Harris in the November presidential election.READ MORE |
| Karine Jean-Pierre: Biden ‘Is as Sharp as Ever’Democrat President Joe Biden’s White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre has just taken her infamous gaslighting to a whole new level.READ MORE |
| Good Samaritans Catch Drunk Illegal Alien after He Kills 22-Year-Old in DUI Crash and FleesAn illegal alien has been arrested after killing a 22-year-old during a deadly DUI hit-and-run in New Mexico.READ MORE |
| Biden’s Aides ‘Scared’ of Triggering Him While Inner Circle Scrambles to Hide His Mental DeclineNew insider reports are emerging that paint a picture of sheer panic and desperation in Democrat President Joe Biden’s inner circle.READ MORE |
| Obama Privately Panicking about Biden’s Re-Election: ReportBarack Obama is privately packing about Democrat President Joe Biden’s doomed chances of re-election in November, according to a new report.READ MORE |
| New York Times Calls for Ban on July 4th Fireworks to Fight ‘Climate Change’Liberal corporate media outlet The New York Times is arguing that Americans must be forced to give up fireworks during July Fourth celebrations in order to help globalists “fight climate change.”READ MORE |
| Fauci: ‘Unfair’ to Judge Biden’s Mental Fitness from DebateDr. Anthony Fauci has weighed on the controversy surrounding Democrat President Joe Biden’s obviously degraded mental and physical state.READ MORE |
| MSNBC’s Nicolle Wallace Gushes over Biden: ‘Everyone Agrees He’s Governed Effectively’ in a ‘Historically Successful Manner’MSNBC host Nicole Wallace has expressed her unwavering support for embattled Democrat President Joe Biden during a gushing interview with a White House official.READ MORE |
| Corporate Media Admits ‘Unelected Oligarchy’ Is Running Country, NOT BidenThe Democrats’ corporate media allies have finally started admitting that President Joe Biden is not really in charge and an “unelected” team of “governing oligarchy” is actually running the country.READ MORE |
| Anti-Trump Republicans Panic over Biden’s ‘Terrible’ Re-Election Chances, Threaten to Leave America, Express ‘Shock,’ ‘Sadness,’ ‘Anger’Democrat President Joe Biden’s “very frustrating and angering” debate performance last week has sent anti-Trump Republicans scrambling into panic mode.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| Renowned Scientist Links Covid Shots to Rise in TransgenderismA world-renowned scientist has just raised the alarm after discovering a shocking link between Covid mRNA shots and soaring numbers of people claiming to be “transgender.”READ THE FULL REPORTParticipants in Gardasil HPV Vaccine Trial Were Misled by MerckA recent study published in the International Journal of Risk & Safety in Medicine has revealed that pharmaceutical company Merck misled participants in a trial of its Human Papilloma Virus (HPV) vaccine, compromising their right to informed consent.READ THE FULL REPORTBiden Threatens to Jail Grocers in His Plan to Combat Food Inflation CrisisGrocery prices are skyrocketing due to President Biden’s policies focused on increased taxation and government spending.READ THE FULL REPORTBiden Administration Greenlights Major Offshore Wind Project in New JerseyBiden’s Department of the Interior approved a major offshore wind turbine project in New Jersey on Tuesday.READ THE FULL REPORTActress Kerry Washington Claims ‘Trump Could Kill Political Opponents with Zero Consequences’Hollywood star Kerry Washington took to her social media account to express outrage, falsely alleging that the U.S. Supreme Court had ruled that President Donald Trump could “order the military to kill a political opponent with zero consequences.”READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
Cat 4 Hurricane Beryl Heads Towards Texas, Threatening Major Oil Refineries
WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 04:00 PM
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) National Hurricane Center (NHC) downgraded Hurricane Beryl to a Category 4 storm from a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale on Wednesday morning. Beryl is the earliest hurricane on record to strengthen into a Category 5 as it churns across the southeastern Caribbean Sea. It is forecasted to hit the Yucatán Peninsula on Friday and afterward poses a threat to US oil and energy critical infrastructure on the Gulf Coast.
NHC said Beryl’s winds peaked at about 157 mph before weakening to 145 mph on Wednesday morning. Government weather forecasters expect “some weakening” of the storm over the “next day or two,” however, it will still be a “major hurricane” as it impacts “Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands.”
On Wednesday, Mexico’s Meteorological Service posted a hurricane warning for the coast of the Yucatán peninsula from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancún, with forecasted landfall on Friday.
After the Yucatán Peninsula, Beryl’s forecasted path heads directly to the Texas coast and is expected to move up towards Louisiana. This area is home to major US oil and gas refineries.
Ahead of the storm, Shell announced Wednesday that it paused some drilling operations in the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s more from Bloomberg:
- Company also began evacuating non-essential personnel as precautionary measure
- Shell is also evacuating non-essential staff from the Whale asset, which is not scheduled to begin operations until later this year
- Production from the Shell-operated Perdido platform feeds into the HOOPS Blend, a medium sour oil with 29.2 API and 1.55% sulfur
- Oil from Perdido is delivered by the Hoover Offshore Oil Pipeline System (HOOPS) to the Quintana terminal, south of Freeport, Texas; from Quintana oil flows into the Houston refining hub but mainly to the Texas City area
“There remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Beryl over the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Interests in the western Gulf of Mexico, including southern Texas, should monitor the progress of Beryl,” NHC wrote in the most recent update.
Computer models show the storm’s future path along the Texas coast, which is home to 32 oil refineries. Refineries are critical for processing crude into products such as gasoline and diesel.
“We have to wait and see where it lands,” Mark Schieldrop, a spokesperson for the travel club AAA Northeast, told newspaper The Record.
Schieldrop said, “But if the storm makes a direct hit to oil and gas infrastructure, it could cause prices to go up here if refineries down there are knocked offline for more than a few days.”
At the start of hurricane season, we penned a note titled “La Nina Will Complicate Things For Biden Ahead Of Elections As Hurricanes Threaten Oil Refineries,” and that’s exactly what could happen next week.
All it takes is one major hurricane to disrupt major US Gulf Coast refineries, which could drive average gasoline prices at the pump to the politically sensitive level of $4 a gallon.
Currently, AAA average prices of gas at the pump stand at…
If Beryl causes refinery closures on the US Gulf Coast, the Biden team will have a whole lot more issues to deal with (currently, it’s just chaos in Washington: “”No One Is Pushing Me Out” Biden Tells Staff As New NYT Poll Shows Trump Lead Widening”).
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BOLIVIA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0821 UP .0013
USA/ YEN 160/83 DOWN 0.525 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2787 UP .0032
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3611 DOWN .0004 (CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.63 PTS OR 0.26%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 128.00 PTS OR 1.27%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.11%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL GREEN EXCEPT SPAIN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 128.00 PTS OR 1.27 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.63 PTS OR 0.26%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .11%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1.28 PTS OR 0.00%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2364.00
silver:$30.59
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 105.31 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.179% DOWN 10 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.07% DOWN 1 AND 0/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.305 DOWN 10 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.940 DOWN 10 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.550 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0822 UP 0.0011 OR 11 basis points
USA/Japan: 161.00 DOWN 0.351 OR YEN IS UP 35 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.174 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0026 OR 26 BASIS pts to 1.3642
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2674 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2912)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.07…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.298% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.500 DOWN 2 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.629 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2382.00
SILVER AT 11;30: 31.03
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 37.33 PTS OR 0.45%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 24.97 PTS OR -.14%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 20.16 PTS OR 0.20 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 42.80 OR 0.39%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 118.34 PTS OR 0.35% PTS
WTI Oil price 83,97 12EST/
Brent Oil: 86.23 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.34 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 64/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.550 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.174 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0841 UP 0.0032 OR 32 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2815 UP 0.0061 OR 61 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.176 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.069%
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 160.73 down .626 YEN up 63 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3638 UP 0019 //CDN dollar DOWN, 19 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 83.11
Brent OIL: 86.63
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.273
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.471%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 9 PTS AT 4.603
USA dollar index: 104.52 DOWN 56 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32635 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.00 UP 0 AND 99/100 roubles
GOLD 2,390.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.25
3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 67.87 PTS OR 0.17%
NASDAQ UP 205.33 PTS OR 1.02 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.48 UP 0.22 PTS OR 1.79%
GLD: $220,93 UP 2.43 OR 2.94%
SLV/ $28.48 UP 0.87 OR 2.30%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Bullion & Big-Tech Soar, Treasury Yields Tumble Amid US Macro-Meltdown
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 04:00 PM
A wild (holiday-shortened and illiquid) week of dismal macro data and dramatic market divergences.
It was 100% – a bad news week…’hard landing’ much?
Source: Bloomberg
…with ‘hard’ data hammered and ‘soft’ data’s rebound ended…
Source: Bloomberg
…which means ‘good news’ for rate-cut expectations (which dovishly soared)…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that sent stocks (some of them), bonds (all of them) and commodities (most of them) soaring while ‘currencies’ tumbled.
Nasdaq ripped to its best week since late April and second best week since the first week of November. Small Caps ended the week red as short-squeeze ammo ran dry…
Mag7 stocks drove the Nasdaq (and S&P) outperformance, ripping over 6% from Monday’s opening lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Which led Consumer Discretionary and Tech higher while Energy stocks were sold…
Source: Bloomberg
And its very concentrated still with the equal weight S&P going nowhere at all…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, the first 10 days of July are historically the strongest period of the year for stocks…
It’s all Mag7, all the time…
Source: Bloomberg
This is Nasdaq’s best start to a year since the GFC…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled this week, led by the short-end of the curve…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar was dumped this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were clubbed like a baby seal this week with Ethereum underperforming Bitcoin (despite all the Mt.Gox FUD over BTC and BCH)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin broke below its 200DMA overnight and then spent the rest of the day session in the US trying to get back to it….
Source: Bloomberg
Oil ended the week higher, despite two good smackdowns around $84 (WTI) during the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold prices soared on the week, back above the 50DMA and near record highs once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, this is an odd chart for you to keep an eye on. While the much-watched UMich inflation expectations index (median) has been stabilizing over the past year or so (fitting the narrative of disinflation and Fed victory); the mean longer-term inflation expectation has blown back out in recent months to its highest since February 1993…
Source: Bloomberg
The huge spread between mean and median implies that the distribution of inflation expectations has a very, very high right-tail (i.e. a relatively large number of respondents are expecting significantly higher inflation over the next 5-10 years). That is definitely not a narrative-confirming chart.
MORNING TRADING//jobs report
Payrolls Rise 206K After Huge Downward Revisions As Unemployment Rate Jumps To Three Year High
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 08:49 AM
It appears that Biden’s apparatchiks refuse to give up on the myth of a “strong labor market” just yet even as they admit to anyone who reads between the lines just how ugly things are getting.
Moments ago the BLS reported that in June the US added 206K jobs, above the 190K expected.
Not bad, especially with Goldman expecting 140K. Of course, a quick glance reveals where the “beat” came from: both previous months were revised sharply lower:
- May jobs revised from 272K, to 218K
- April jobs revised from 165K to 108K
With these revisions, employment in April and May combined is 111,000 lower than previously reported. So yes, it is easy to “beat” when you have a pool of 111K jobs that never existed to push into this month. And course, next month when the June data is revised lower, the 206K beat will be revised to a sub 190K miss but by then it will be too late. And as shown in the chart below, 4 of the past 5 months have seen payrolls revised lower.
Not only that but the composition of jobs was once again dismal and followed the same gimmick the BLS used for its “strong” JOLTS report this week: private sector workers came in at 136K, well below the 160K expected and down from a downward revised 193K (was 229K). The gap was filled by – what else- deep stater and other government workers, as government payrolls jumped from 25K to 70K!
The good news is that unlike last month when the number of employed workers actually plunged again leading to a a record gap between the Establishment and Household Surveys, in June at least the number of employed workers rose by 116K. Which however means that the gap between the two series rose by another 90K!
Turning to the unemployment rate, there was a big surprise here because contrary to expectations of a flat print, the number rose to 4.1%, up from 4.0% in May and the highest print since November 2021!
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (3.7 percent) and Asians (4.1 percent) increased in June. The jobless rates for adult men (3.8 percent), teenagers (12.1 percent), Whites (3.5 percent), Blacks (6.3 percent), and Hispanics (4.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
Some more stats from the latest jobs report:
- The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) rose by 166,000 to 1.5 million in June. This measure is up from 1.1 million a year earlier. The long-term unemployed accounted for 22.2 percent of all unemployed people in June.
- The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.6 percent in June, and the employment-population ratio held at 60.1 percent. These measures showed little or no change over the year.
- The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.2 million, changed little in June.
- The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job declined by 483,000 to 5.2 million in June. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
- Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.5 million, was essentially unchanged in June. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, edged down to 365,000 in June.
Turning to hourly earnings, here too there was continued slowing with the average hourly earnings number rising 3.9% YoY, down from 4.1% in May and in line with expectations. On a monthly basis, the print also slower to 0.3%, down from 0.4% in May.
Developing
END
US Bank Deposits Fell Ahead Of Stress Tests; Fed Bailout Facility Stuck At Massive $107BN
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 04:40 PM
Heading into the bank stress tests, money-market fund total assets rose by a de minimus $5BN while seasonally-adjusted bank deposits fell $18BN to $17.594 TN…
Source: Bloomberg
And, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits also fell (for the second straight week) by $14.8BN
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign deposits, total domestic deposits fell on both an SA and NSA basis (-$15BN and -$5BN respectively)…
Source: Bloomberg
Small banks and Large banks both saw $7.5BN outflows (SA) each, while on an NSA basis, Small banks saw $5.9BN outflows as Large banks saw around $1BN of deposits inflows.
Usage of The Fed’s bank bailout facility shrank a tiny amount – but still remains at an extremely high $107BN that the banks do not want to repay any time soon…
Source: Bloomberg
On the other side of the ledger, loan volumes shrank overall with a $630MN increase at large banks offset by a $3.7BN loan volume shrink at small banks…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, US equity market capitalization remains drastically decoupled from its historically tight relationship with bank reserves at The Fed…
Source: Bloomberg
But globally, central bank balance sheet shrinkage continues as stocks soar…
Source: Bloomberg
Now that would be quite recoupling…
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
June Jobless Rate Triggers Sahm Rule: Recession Imminent?
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 09:35 AM
Via The American Institute for Economic Research,
In this morning’s US Bureau of Labor Statistics data release, the U-3 unemployment rate increased 4.1 percent in June 2024, rising by one-tenth of a percentage point above the forecast rate. The U-3 rate measures the percentage of the civilian labor force that is jobless, actively seeking work, and available to work, excluding discouraged workers and the underemployed.
This uptick triggers the Sahm Rule, a real-time recession indicator, suggesting that the US economy is in, or is nearing, a recession. The Sahm Rule, developed by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm, is designed to identify the start of a recession using changes in the total unemployment rate.
According to the rule, a recession is underway if the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate rises by 0.50 percentage points or more, relative to its low during the previous 12 months. With the June 2024 U-3 rate of 4.1 percent, the average of the last three months being 4.0 and the lowest 12-month rate of 3.5 percent in July 2023, this criterion has been met.
Sahm Rule indications (1960 – 2024)
Source: Bloomberg
Surveys had forecast the U-3 rate to hold steady at 4.0 percent in June, unchanged from May 2024. The seemingly small 0.1 percent uptick, however, carries substantial implications for the broader economy. One possible confounding effect of the signal is growth in the labor force: If the labor force grows rapidly and the economy does not generate enough jobs to match the increase, the unemployment rate might rise and the Sahm Rule may be triggered, even if overall employment is increasing.
The rise of initial claims over the past few weeks, and nine consecutive increases in continuing claims, support the June 2024 Sahm indication.
Source: Bloomberg
Equity futures were flat just after the release, while Treasuries rallied across all maturities.
In recent months, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that “unexpected weakness” may prompt a start to an accommodative policy stance without the additional data sought regarding the pace of disinflation. Historically, an increase in unemployment rates and the onset of a recession have led to policy adjustments aimed at stimulating economic growth and mitigating job losses, and the reversal of the rate hikes which began in 2022 to mitigate the highest inflation in four decades has been widely anticipated.
While more data will be required to confirm the Sahm Rule indication, the impact of accelerating prices, interest rates at their highest levels since 2007, and commercially suppressive pandemic policies have probably caught up with US producers and consumers.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Inflation Hits The Grill: The Price Of A July 4th Cookout Keeps Soaring Under Biden
THURSDAY, JUL 04, 2024 – 04:15 PM
As memories of COVID restrictions are quickly fading, Americans are looking forward to proper, carefree Fourth of July celebrations this year.
According to AAA, more than 70 million Americans will travel at least 50 miles this Independence Day week in order to celebrate with their friends and families – a new record.
Aside from the obligatory fireworks, a proper cookout is the key ingredient for a real Independence Day celebration in many households. Speaking of ingredients: how much will a typical Fourth of July menu set you back these days?
Well, there’s the catch: Bidenflation makes no exception for national holidays, so expect your feast to be more expensive than ever this year.
You will find more infographics at Statista
According to the American Farm Bureau’s annual Fourth of July market basket survey, a 10-person cookout involving cheeseburgers, chicken breasts, pork chops and several sides and dessert options will cost $71.22 this year.
That’s up “just” 5 percent from last, but 30 percent from 2019.
“No matter which state or city you call home, Americans everywhere are still feeling the heat at the grocery checkout,” Datasembly said in a statement to Axios.
“Consumers will see — once again — that prices are still climbing compared to pre-pandemic times,” the company told Axios.
Which is odd since Biden and his lackeys keep telling us that ‘inflation is coming down’, in an attempt to gaslight Americans into believing that prices are coming down… they’re not!
end
NEWPORT BEACH CALIFORNIA
Elderly Tourist Hit With Car, Killed After Being Robbed In Affluent Newport Beach
BY TYLER DURDEN
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 02:20 PM
Crime continues to escalate in California and, in turn, so does the collateral damage that comes with it. And it isn’t just San Francisco, LA or Oakland anymore…the effects are being felt even in places like Newport Beach.
This past week an elderly 69-year-old tourist was killed at a shopping center in Newport Beach when a crew of “armed goons” ran her over with their car after they finished a “brazen broad-daylight robbery,” according to the New York Post.
The woman and her husband, visiting from New Zealand, were attacked by three thieves outside of a Barnes and Noble. The husband fought back but the thieves dragged the woman into the parking lot and eventually ran her over with their white Toyota Camry before fleeing.
All three suspects connected with the crime are now in custody, according to Sgt. Steven Oberon of the Newport Beach Police Department.
The woman, Patricia McKay, suffered fatal injuries, while her husband, prominent Auckland businessman Doug McKay, is believed to be uninjured. One suspect fled on foot while the others escaped in the vehicle.
Authorities notified residents around 4 p.m. to avoid the shopping plaza as the investigation was underway. Police were seen at the center directing the public to safety, with helicopters overhead providing aerial support.
According to the LA Times, one nearby witness said: “About 20 people were running and screaming, ‘Someone’s shooting!’ They locked us in the restaurant, and I hear for sure one person was dead and I think several injured.”
Newport Beach Mayor Will O’Neill concluded: “Newport Beach is a safe community and we’re mourning the loss of someone. Frankly, to hell with these guys. … These are thugs. Every community is now dealing with this. We have to do better as a society. We cannot tolerate this.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
NEWT GINGRICH
Gingrich: The Key ‘Lessons In Liberty’
WEDNESDAY, JUL 03, 2024 – 11:25 PM
Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClearPolicy,
Historic leaders often share something important in common. They are not born great. Their greatness is a result of a lifetime of difficulty and consequential choices.
As Jeremy S. Adams discussed in his book, “Lessons in Liberty,” this is especially true for remarkable Americans. In the book, Adams details the inspiring lives of extraordinary Americans and what we can learn from them today.
George Washington, for example, struggled his entire life to keep his temper under control. This lifelong effort made him a model for discipline and restraint. Clara Barton nursed her badly injured brother back to health when she was only 11 years old. This harrowing experience later equipped her with the skills and bravery to serve as a nurse in the Civil War. U.S. Sen. Daniel Inouye was a 17-year-old Japanese American who lived in Hawaii when Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. The sneak attack angered him so much he joined the U.S. Army to fight in World War II. Despite discrimination and hardship from the U.S. government, Inouye became a highly decorated soldier and longtime U.S. Senator.
I spoke with Adams about his book on a recent episode of Newt’s World. He is a serious scholar and educator. He teaches social studies and political science to highschoolers and students at the University of California at Bakersfield. He was the Daughters of the American Revolution 2014 California Teacher of the Year and a finalist for the Carlston Family Foundation Outstanding Teachers of America Award.
We talked about the personal wisdom of Washington, Barton, Inouye, and other extraordinary Americans. Adams said in his book that Americans need to “honor what is honorable, praise what is praiseworthy, and most of all, emulate which is highest and best, so we can take advantage of the miracle of human freedom.” While no historic figure is perfect, their fallibility makes them so worthy of our study.
Unfortunately, many young students in America are not learning about our great historical figures. Forty percent of Gen-Z members characterize the founding fathers as villains. Fifty percent of high schoolers say that their lives have little to no meaning, and only 52 percent of Americans would be willing to fight to defend the country.
Something disturbing is happening in classrooms across our country. Our nation’s young people are being influenced by viewpoints, values, and behaviors of people who hate America and the principles on which it was founded. As President Ronald Reagan said, “freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction.” Each generation has a duty to renew and protect America and its values.
As we discussed on the podcast, America is also bigger than a singular party. It is bigger than any ideology. We are more than just Republicans or Democrats. We were more than federalists or anti-federalists. We are all Americans. The 10 men and women Adams discussed in his book were from different time periods and backgrounds. Some were liberal and some were conservative. But they all worked to make America great.
Importantly, none of them were personally born great. Their greatness was a choice. That is the key lesson of liberty.
For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.
END
SWAMP NEWS
Incoherence Day: Biden’s Fourth Filled With Flubs Ahead Of Primetime Interview Tonight
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Seemingly crumbling under immense pressure to undo the damage from a debate performance that showcased his plummeting mental acuity, President Biden’s Fourth of July was a veritable fireworks show of bewildering statements and derailed trains of thought — that saw Biden calling himself a black woman who was elected president as a child. The grand finale to the destructive holiday-weekend display could come at 8pm ET tonight, when Biden appears in a primetime, sit-down interview on ABC News.
Thursday’s dark comedy started with an appearance on Philadelphia’s WURD radio, which features a format categorized as “urban talk.” Having already boasted about appointing the first black woman to the Supreme Court and selecting the first black woman as vice president, Biden short-circuited and said, “I’m proud to be, as I said, the first vice president…the first black woman to serve with a black president.”
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-
In the same interview, Biden completely garbled his reminiscing about John F. Kennedy, Jr serving as a barrier-breaking inspiration to Biden’s younger self:
“I remember, as a Catholic kid growing up up in an area where we didn’t like, Catholics didn’t get — I’m the first president to be elected statewide in the state of Delaware when I was a kid. Well, you know, I was, I looked at John Kennedy and said, ‘Well, he got elected. Why can’t I get elected?
BIDEN: “I’m the first president that got elected statewide in the state of Delaware when I was a kid.”
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Later, in remarks to military families at the White House, Biden twice showcased another of his chronic symptoms, as he started a train of thought, only to quickly abandon it. The first example came as he attempted to trot out the disputed allegation that then-President Trump called dead American soldiers in a French World War I cemetery “losers” and “suckers.” After his anecdote stalled, Biden tried recovering with one of his all-purpose rhetorical crutches, shouting, “We gotta just remember WHO IN THE HELL WE ARE…We’re the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA!”
DISGRACEFUL: A heavily slurring Biden starts to stumble through the debunked “suckers and losers” hoax at the White House Independence Day celebration — in front of our great military families
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x.com/RNCResearch/status/1808990157086830889
Another dead-end sentence came as he seemed to be making an exaggerated claim about putting himself in danger alongside service members in foreign conflicts:
IDEN to the troops: “I’ve been all over the world with you. I’ve been in and out of battles, anyway…”
In another radio interview meant to reach black audiences, Biden appeared on the nationally syndicated Earl Ingram Show. “Despite the low-pressure nature of the interview, the president at times spoke haltingly as he delivered his rapid-fire answers,” the New York Times reported. “In the 17-minute interview, he sometimes stopped himself in the middle of an answer.” For example, in the middle of a sentence about Trump’s proposed tariffs, Biden abandoned the venture, saying, “…anyway, just, I don’t want to get too wrapped up in it, really.”
With his flub-filled Fourth in the books, Biden’s next major opportunity to shore up voters’ perception of this mental soundness comes tonight, when appears in his first sit-down interview since last week’s debate disaster. The interview with ABC‘s George Stephanopoulos will be recorded during the day amid Biden campaign stops in Wisconsin and then aired in an 8pm ET “primetime special.”
To counter suspicions that the network will edit the interview to Biden’s benefit, ABC has committed to releasing a transcript of the entire interview sometime today or this evening. As we noted yesterday:
“Readers will naturally view the idea of a Stephanopoulos interview with justifiable wariness of soft-pitch questions and friendly editing. However, we’re in a different political world than last week…
Given the debate-triggered earthquake that’s altered the leftist landscape, Stephanopoulos will likely feel significant pressure to act something like a real journalist, for once.”
As Biden staggers from one risky public appearance to the next, a white-knuckled Team Biden is surely sweating next week’s schedule: Biden will host a three-day NATO summit in Washington that starts on Tuesday. As part of that event, he will conduct a rare solo press conference, which could well prove the most treacherous challenge he’s faced since last week’s debate — and perhaps even more so.
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Biden: “Ho, ho, ho! Happy Independence Day!” The rehab tour is not going at all well.
HUMOUR STORY OF THE WEEK
one question; did the driverless car pull out its license to drive?
Phoenix Police Pull-Over Driverless Waymo For ‘Freaking Out’ & Driving Into Oncoming Traffic
FRIDAY, JUL 05, 2024 – 03:40 PM
Phoenix Police bodycam footage, published online by AZCentral, captures the moment when an officer pulls over a Waymo autonomous Jaguar I-Pace SUV that had recklessly veered into oncoming traffic on a busy Phoenix street.
AZCentral said the incident occurred on June 19. Phoenix police pulled over the driverless taxi with no occupants inside for driving in an oncoming traffic lane near Seventh Avenue and Osborn Road.
Just after 11 am on June 19, a Phoenix police officer initiated a traffic stop on the Waymo, according to police dispatch records. The vehicle drove into oncoming traffic, ran a red light and “FREAKED OUT,” said the dispatch records, which are typed in all capital letters. -AZCentral
Waymo blamed the incident on “inconsistent construction signage” that forced the SUV into an oncoming lane of traffic. It added that the vehicle was “blocked from navigating back into the correct lane” for around 30 seconds.
“In an effort to clear the intersection, the Waymo vehicle proceeded forward a short distance and pulled into the next available parking lot,” Waymo said, noting the traffic incident lasted less than a minute.
Two weeks ago, a Redditor posted an image of the traffic stop, questioning: “Saw a Waymo getting pulled over by cops this morning. How does it work?”
Officers in the bodycam footage can be heard talking about the incident with Waymo staff in real time.
While this incident might be seen as relatively minor, General Motors’ autonomous car unit, Cruise, has faced negative press over collisions in the past year.
Meanwhile, next month (August 8), Elon Musk is set to unveil the much-anticipated “Tesla Robotaxi.”
Is the world ready for robotaxis?
NEW: Phoenix police officer pulls over a driverless Waymo car for driving on the wrong side of the road leading the nonexistent driver to roll the windows down to speak with the police. This is hilarious. Waymo has since released a statement, apparently blaming the incident on “inconsistent construction signage.” The car “was blocked from navigating back into the correct lane” for about 30 seconds when the officer pulled it over. “In an effort to clear the intersection, the Waymo vehicle proceeded forward a short distance and pulled into the next available parking lot,” the company said.
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KING REPORT
| The King Report July 5, 2024 Issue 7277 | Independent View of the News |
| Biden Told Ally That He Is Weighing Whether to Continue in the Race – NY Time President Joe Biden has told a key ally that he knows he may not be able to salvage his candidacy if he cannot convince the public in the coming days that he is up for the job… The president… understands that his next few appearances… must go well… The conversation is the first indication to become public that the president is seriously considering whether he can recover.. https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-told-ally-weighing-whether-151745457.html WaPo: Obama shares concerns (in private) after shaky debate, offers Biden his advice In December, during a private lunch at the White House, Obama discussed the need for Biden to empower his campaign apparatus, suggesting he install a more senior level decision-maker at the Wilmington headquarters. The next month, Jennifer O’Malley Dillon and Mike Donilon left the White House to serve as campaign chair and chief strategist, respectively… (Who’s running the USA?) https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/obama-voices-concerns-after-shaky-debate-offers-biden-his-advice/ar-BB1pj3QF NYT: Biden Tells Governors He Needs More Sleep and Less Work at Night… including curtailing events after 8 p.m… After Gov. Josh Green of Hawaii, a physician, asked Mr. Biden questions about the status of his health, Mr. Biden replied that his health was fine. “It’s just my brain,”… a remark that some in the room took as a joke… But at least one governor did not, and was puzzled by it… A White House spokesman, Andrew Bates, confirmed that Mr. Biden had seen the White House physician to check on the cold. But on Friday, the White House press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, said the opposite, telling reporters that Mr. Biden had not had any kind of medical checkup since Feb. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/04/us/politics/biden-governors-health.html?unlocked_article_code=1.4k0.xL0J.J2maL2eQ1yEU Remember when Hillary campaigned on: “It’s 3am and your children are safe and asleep… Who do you want answering the phone?” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/who-do-you-want-answering-the-phone/ (“Dozens of”) House Democrats consider demanding Biden withdraw from race as panic mounts that he’ll cost them control of Congress – Bloomberg (We hear the number of Dem Reps is 50ish.) On Wednesday, Biden spoke with Schumer, Pelosi, and Rep. Clyburn. He also had lunch with VP Harris. Politico’s @ec_schneider (Wed.): Pres Biden on campaign call that just wrapped, per person on the call: “Let me say this as clearly as I possibly can as simply and straightforward as I can: I am running…no one’s pushing me out. I’m not leaving. I’m in this race to the end and we’re going to win.” Reuters: Jill Biden a fierce advocate for Biden remaining in the race https://t.co/MW8Tf6ZZnl WaPo: Biden and aides concede he needs to quickly demonstrate his fitness for office https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/03/biden-crisis-debate-democrats/ Despite knowing he must quickly demonstrate mental acuity; The Big Guy had an awful 4th of July. At a 4th of July WH soiree for the military Joey Baby struggled. Here are three of the troubling moments. @RNCResearch: BIDEN to the troops: “I’ve been all over the world with you. I’ve been in and out of battles, anyway…” https://t.co/vXo4muna89 Joe receives his final instructions from Jill, Ed.D., before shuffling off the stage after slurring through VERY BRIEF remarks read directly from his giant teleprompter. https://t.co/b5hmvPCdjd @EndWokeness: “I am proud to be, as I said, the first Vice President, first black woman to serve with a black president” – Biden just declared. Source: Philadelphia radio (WURD) https://t.co/rKB9zGipPl After a week of Dems and their media lackeys proclaiming Biden is unfit to be president, how do Dems and the media put the Unfit Genie back in the bottle? What to ‘they’ say and do now? The only reason that Biden’s long-time enablers, including the media, are now advocating that The Big Guy needs to reason due to his mental issues is that they fear he will lose to Trump. They had no problem with Joe’s cognitive impairment for four years. In fact, they knew it allowed Team Obama to run him. Several pundits on Wednesday claimed that Biden will resign next week, and Jill is irate. What happens if the Biden family capo di tutti capi, or a capo, retaliate by going public with ‘the dirt’ on others? Michelle Obama’s office says the former first lady ‘will not be running for president’ in 2024: NBC https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/michelle-obama-former-first-lady-not-running-president-2024-rcna141767 Devastating and deeply disturbing article of first-hand accounts of Biden’s mental issues: @Olivianuzzi: In January, I began hearing similar stories from Democratic officials, activists, and donors who came away from interactions with Joe Biden disturbed by what they had seen. For @NYMag, I wrote about the conspiracy of silence to protect the president: The Conspiracy of Silence to Protect Joe Biden – The president’s mental decline was like a dark family secret for many elite supporters. (Long article) Longtime friends of the Biden family, who spoke to me on the condition of anonymity, were shocked to find that the president did not remember their names. At a White House event last year, a guest recalled, with horror, realizing that the president would not be able to stay for the reception because, it was clear, he would not be able to make it through the reception. The guest wasn’t sure they could vote for Biden, since the guest was now open to an idea that they had previously dismissed as right-wing propaganda: The president may not really be the acting president after all… Saying hello to one Democratic megadonor and family friend at the White House recently, the president stared blankly and nodded his head. The First Lady intervened to whisper in her husband’s ear, telling him to say “hello” to the donor by name and to thank them for their recent generosity. The president repeated the words his wife had fed him… Who was actually in charge? Nobody knew… This April, at a reception before the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, I joined a sea of people waiting for a photo with the president and First Lady… I maintain personal fondness for Dr. Biden… In the basement, I smiled and said hello. She looked back at me with a confused, panicked expression. It was as if she had just received horrible news and was about to run out of the room… I followed the First Lady’s gaze and found the president. Now I understood her panicked expression… Up close, the president does not look quite plausible… My heart stopped as I extended my hand to greet the president. I tried to make eye contact, but it was like his eyes, though open, were not on. His face had a waxy quality… the group of reporters — not instigated by me, I should note — made guesses about how dead he appeared to be, percentage wise. “Forty percent?” one of them asked… https://t.co/clKmksK9D8 US Services Activity Contracts at Fastest Pace in Four States – BBG ISM index of services slumped 5 points in June to 48.8 (52.7 was consensus) Measure of business activity also weakest since May 2020 (tumbled 11.6 points) The ISM Service Employment gauge for June fell to 46.1 from 47.1; 49.5 was expected. Prices Paid are 56.2, 56.7 was expected; 58.1 prior. The June S&P Global US Services PMI contradicted the ISM Services Index by registering 55.3. 55.1 was expected; 55.1 prior. The ADP Employment Change for June is 150k, 165k was expected; 157k prior US Initial Jobless Claims (6/22) 238k, 235k expected, prior 234k from 233k Continuing Claims 1.858m, 1.85m expected, prior 1.832m from 1.839m May Factory Orders sank 0.5% m/m, +0.1% was consensus. Ex-Trans Orders tanked 0.7%. May Durables Goods Orders were the expected 0.1% m/m; Ex-Trans was the expected -0.1%; Nondefense Ex-Air Orders were the expected -0.6%; Shipments dropped 0.6%. @profstonge: Are we already in recession, hidden by fake inflation numbers? We know official numbers are hiding reality, from not counting homeless as unemployed to calling welfare spending growth. But the inflation numbers are key. Because if inflation numbers are higher than they say, we may already be in a deep recession. Clogged Bank Balance Sheets Cause Key Repo Funding Rate to Spike – BBG SOFR fixed at 5.40% as of July 1, according to NY Fed data Move similar to funding market pressures seen in late-2023 A key rate tied to the day-to-day borrowing needs of the financial system hit the highest level since the beginning of the year as chunky Treasury auction settlements and clogged primary dealer balance sheets curbed lending capacity. The Secured Overnight Financing Rate spiked seven basis points to 5.40% on July 1, according to Federal Reserve Bank of New York data published Tuesday. That matches the highest fixing in the six-year-old benchmark reached on Jan. 2 and Dec. 28… https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/clogged-bank-balance-sheets-cause-key-repo-funding-rate-to-spike Primary Dealers have ‘clogged balance sheets’ because they are warehousing beaucoup US debt! And in a recession, the budget deficit can increase 50% to 100%. USUs rallied as much as 1 15/32, the dollar tumbled, and gold rallied as much as $41.10 on the soft June ISM, weak ADP Employment Change, and decline in May Factory Orders. ESUs traded moderately negative and sideways from the Nikkei opening until they turned modestly positive at 4:37 ET. ESUs then traded sideways until they turned negative at 7:11 ET. After hitting a daily low of 5559.75 at 8:38 ET, the usual rally for the NYSE open and pump & dump began. Also, as we opined in Wednesday’s missive, traders wanted to push the S&P 500 to a new all-time high in a thin holiday market that would close early (13:00 ET). The rally accelerated after the soft US economic data renewed Fed rate cut hopes. ESUs hit a high of 5595.75, due to the late manipulation for 13:00 ET, at 12:58 ET. Jeff Bezos to sell Amazon shares worth about $5 bln after stock hits record high He sold shares worth roughly $8.5 billion in February… http://reut.rs/3WayJgD The Tesla short squeeze continued Wednesday. TSLA rallied 6.54% and is +40.98% over the past 20 sessions. (Still see no bubble, Jerome?) Mag 7 and related trading sardines soared, again. Positive aspects of previous session The Mag 7/Fang Bubble inflated further. The S&P 500 Index and Nasdaq hit all-time highs. Gasoline declined smartly; the usual Pre-4th Rally ended early. Negative aspects of previous session The Mag 7/Fang Bubble inflated further. Precious and industrial metals rallied sharply. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How profound will the Dem/USA political crisis get? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5527.90 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5539.27; 5507.42 For the second straight day, the media bombarded WH Press Sec KJP with pointed questions about Biden’s mental health, his excuses for a bad debate, and other Joey Baby issues. Pentagon hid taxpayer funding for Chinese labs fumes Republican Rand Paul vowing to expose Dr. Fauci and COVID origins ‘cover-up’ https://t.co/fGJFjO0oUe GOP Sen. @RandPaul: We have public health officials that appear to be more salesmen for Big Pharma, than they do objective scientists, and that still is a problem. It’s led to a great deal of distrust, much more distrust over what the government tells us, than ever before. @BlackTomThePyr8: Let’s stop beating around the bush. They made a bio-weapon. They killed tens of millions with it. Then they made a ‘vaccine’ out of the bio-weapon’s worst parts, and killed tens of millions more. This was global genocide. We know who carried it out. The Labor Party (410 seats est.) crushed the Tories (131, lowest since 1834) in the UK General Elections. Market on Thursday Nikkei +0.82%, Hang Seng +0.28%, CSI 300 -0.51%, Shanghai Comp -0.83%, Shenzhen Comp -1.58% Euro Stoxx 50 +0.44%, FTSE +0.86%, CAC +0.83%, DAC +0.41%, IBEX +0.09%, MIB +0.77% ESUs H 5597.00, L 5585.25, Close 5588.50, -1.75; NQUs -30.25 close USUs H 117 26/32, L 117 15/32, Close 117 18/32, -14/32 @babylonbee: Democrat Leaders Convince Biden He Already Stepped Down Yesterday Today – With high absenteeism due to the 4th of July, the June Employment Report could provoke one or more violent reactions. The June Employment Report could ascertain if bad economic news is good for stocks or if recession angst is germinating. With the thin markets, today is a total crapshoot. NQUs are -15.50; ESUs are -0.50; USUs are -13/32 (From Wednesday) at 20:55 ET. Expected econ data: June NFP 190k, Mfg. 5k, Rate 4.0%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.9% y/y, Workweek 34.3, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6%; NY Fed Pres Williams 5:40 ET at ECB Forum S&P Index 50-day MA: 5301; 100-day MA: 5210; 150-day MA: 5060; 200-day MA: 4882 DJIA 50-day MA: 38,946; 100-day MA: 38,877; 150-day MA: 38,367; 200-day MA: 37,265 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5537.02 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5256.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5423.05 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5507.45 triggers a sell signal Clyburn’s discussion of a ‘mini-primary’ fuels more talk of whether Biden should end his campaign He is often credited as the man who delivered the Democratic nomination to Joe Biden with a pivotal endorsement four years ago. But on Wednesday, Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., sent a resounding message to the president and elected officials across the nation that it may be time to move on. Clyburn, a Biden campaign co-chair, outlined a process to replace Biden during an interview with CNN. Should Biden step aside, Clyburn said, he expects a “mini-primary” featuring Vice President Kamala Harris.. https://apnews.com/article/biden-clyburn-democrats-president-step-down-91ca0e8fa5f30f2cf82f2f6e5fac42b8 Axios’ @AlexThomp: Many current and former Biden advisers are very confused and frustrated as to why Biden hasn’t done a single interview or taken questions since the debate… a few are openly wondering if they aren’t doing it because Biden can’t. We’re old enough to remember how the media and Dems excoriated Special Counsel Hur for stating the Biden did NOT have the mental capacity to be tried in court. Did you see anyone apologize to Hur? @RNCResearch: Biden is now blaming his disastrous debate performance on a flurry of international travel — even though he spent a full week holed away at Camp David before the debate. CNN’s MJ Lee: “I find it a little bit puzzling.” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1808286923544305824 At first, Team Biden tried to mitigate Biden’s horrid debate with the excuse that Joe had a cold. Then Joe told donors that his debate sucked because he was still tired from international travel – even though he returned to the US 12 days before the debate and spent a week at Camp David! Joe’s pants are ablaze! Biden staffers are ‘scared s***less of him’ and ‘worry about setting him off’ Behind closed doors, the president is said to be a long way from the softly-spoken, timid man who appeared on stage… “Because he is not a pleasant person to be around when he’s being briefed. It’s very difficult, and people are scared s***less of him,” the official continued… Jeff Connaughton, a former Biden campaign and senate aide, previously wrote in his 2012 book The Payoff that Biden as a senator was an “egomaniacal autocrat… determined to manage his staff through fear”… https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-staffers-scared-less-him-164607597.html Joe Biden tries to make truthfulness an election issue, while telling some whoppers of his own https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/wedteam-biden-points-trump-lies-post-debate-he-told-some-whoppers-himself Joe Biden has been an abject liar and ill-tempered dolt during his 50-year political life. Only a Dem could get away such jaw-dropping deceit and hypocrisy! How Jill Biden’s top adviser now ‘controls everything’ despite claims of sexual harassment, bullying and fixation with ‘size of male staffers’ endowments’ – Behind White House walls, Jill refers to Bernal, 51, as her ‘work husband’, with the pair rarely seen apart. ‘Bernal is the most powerful person in the East Wing [the First Lady’s White House quarters]… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13593897/Jill-Biden-adviser-control-claims-sexual-harassment-bullying.html @DavidAsmanfox: Biden: “Extreme heat is the #1 weather related killer in the US.” Fact: The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics says twice as many people die of COLD in a given year than heat. And a 2021 Lancet planetary study shows 9 cold-linked deaths for everyone connected to heat. @seanmdav: It’s a matter of basic law that a person who is not competent cannot sign contracts or execute official documents. This is a major issue in elder law due to dementia and senility. The debate showed Biden is not of sound mind, so how can he be issuing executive orders, or signing bills, or issuing pardons? Wouldn’t those actions be invalid if the only official with the authority to sign them is not actually competent to do so as a matter of fact and law? @JacquiHeinrich: This is just so wild. The Washington Post Editorial Board wrote a hypothetical Biden withdrawal speech, framed as if he were delivering this today – on the Fourth of July. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/03/biden-speech-july-fourth-election-withdraw/ WSJ: ‘Biden Is Like Yoda.’ Inside the Big Money Battle to Salvage the Democratic Ticket. Some donors have tapped the brakes on fundraising (Where are the adults in the Dem Party?) Biden is like Yoda – old and frail yet wise and influential – Donal Trump is like Jabba the Hutt… https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/biden-is-like-yoda-inside-the-big-money-battle-to-salvage-the-democratic-ticket-693ea661 Is it time for Dems cut loose Joe and concentrate campaign resources and funds to Congressional Races to salvage as many seats as possible in the November Elections? @KanekoaTheGreat: Hollywood Democratic megadonor Ari Emanuel torches President Joe Biden “I talked to a bunch of big donors, and they’re moving all their money to Congress and the Senate.” “He gave us a bunch of malarkey, and I’m really pissed. We all should be really pissed.” “He is not the candidate anymore. This is a legal issue now. You can no longer remove him in three swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. There’s only one democratic congress. Michigan. They have to vote to remove him. I don’t believe the Republican party in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will do that. And, if they do, it’s then Kamala Harris. This is legal, so lawyers will have to look at this. Now, there are some questions about whether the delegates can do something… The lifeblood of a campaign is money, and maybe the only way this gets solved is if the money starts drying up. It’s a legal issue now… but we’re in f— city.” https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1808574996115341724 Devastating blow for Biden as famous billionaire (Netflix co-founder Reid Hastings) who’s among Democrats’ most generous donors calls for president, 81, to pull out of race https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13598399/Devastating-blow-Biden-famous-billionaire-calls-pull-out.html @DavidSacks: Why are powerful Democrat donors so angry at Joe Biden? Because they have to act like they were deceived by him. Otherwise, it will be too obvious that they were enablers of the cover-up. @LisaMarieBoothe: They will put Kamala on every magazine cover. We will see the lamest puff pieces trying to make her seem normal. It will be like nothing we have ever seen. @TonySeruga: Read this book! Kamala Harris is beyond a moron, she has zero morals… “Amateur Hour: Kamala Harris in the White House” Even Biden is treating Harris as a joke. Vice President Kamala Harris is so bad at her job that the first family and key aides are freezing her out of major decisions and consider her ability to help the president’s agenda “a joke.” According to a new biography, Amateur Hour, the president and first lady have been so standoffish that they have yet to host a family dinner for Harris and second husband Doug Emhoff, and the president has reneged on his promise to have weekly lunches with his No. 2. Kamala Harris is branded a ‘bully’ and accused of inflicting ‘constant, soul-destroying criticism’ on staff by ex-aides who claim she refused to read briefings, then scolded them if she was slated for being unprepared as ‘FOUR’ staffers head for the exit Dec. 5, 2021 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10277113/Even-aides-Kamala-Harris-eyeing-exits-new-report-reveals.html @DavidSacks: The only question now is how we get to January 20 without blundering into WW3. I would take a senile Biden over a clueless Harris and it’s not even close. Republicans launch coordinated effort against Biden’s ‘heir apparent’ Kamala Harris as she skirts question on whether she’ll step in as Dem nominee The ad accuses Harris of being an ‘enabler in chief’ with clips of her praising Biden. It also accuses the vice president of being the ‘architect of the border crisis’ as a leading administration official tasked with addressing the border… a Politico/Morning Consult poll last month found Harris has similar unfavorable ratings as Biden at 52 percent… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13597239/republicans-effort-biden-kamala-harris-nominee-2024.html Kamala Harris is checkmated on Biden. She either knew Joe was mentally unfit to be president and covered it up, or she was too stupid to recognize Joe’s deficiencies even though both Joe and Kamala claimed to work close together. What did Kamala Harris know; and when did she know it! Kamala Harris is floated as a Biden replacement, but her past may weigh down her candidacy Harris’ rise through the San Francisco political machine came with allegations of naked favoritism and sexual scandal that followed her through her several state-level roles. At the start of her political career, Harris found herself dating the powerful Speaker of the California State Assembly, Willie Brown, former mayor of San Francisco… At the time, Brown was a married man. Kamala Harris’ affair with the politician resulted in cushy appointments and kickstarted her political career in the District and City Attorneys’ offices, Schweizer wrote in Profiles… Harris would go on to show favoritism towards Brown and his political allies during her tenure in the District Attorney’s office, according to Schweizer… Fellow 2020 primary candidate Tulsi Gabbard famously scorched Harris over her record as California’s top prosecutor in the July 2019 debate….“She put over 1,500 people in jail for marijuana violations and then laughed about it when she was asked if she ever smoked marijuana,” Gabbard said. “She blocked evidence that would have freed an innocent man from death row until the courts forced her to do so. She kept people in prisons beyond their sentences to use them as cheap labor for the state of California. And she fought to keep cash bail system in place that impacts poor people in the worst kind of way.”… Harris may also face difficulties with her persistently low approval ratings… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/kamala-harris-floated-biden-replacement-her-past-may-weigh-down-her Ex-WH official: @DarrenJBeattie: Kamala’s brush with the DNC pipe bomb, which should be the Dems’ biggest J6 talking point, is their most carefully guarded secret. Why? What did Kamala and her secret service detail know and when did they know it? REMEMBER: Kamala Harris was in the DNC building when the so-called Jan 6 pipe bomb was discovered and removed. The bombshell video below shows that her own secret service detail clearly knew the bombs were fake in advance (how did they know this?) Despite the fact that Dems have bent over backward to paint Jan 6 as a domestic terror event, and have lied to support this theory, Kamala has not milked her brush with the J6 pipe bomb for political points In fact, she has studiously covered up her presence in the DNC building. What should be their biggest J6 talking point is their most carefully guarded secret. @AnnCoulter: South Carolina, how did you elect such a ninny? NYT: Lindsey Graham is terrified that Dems will run Kamala AND A 2D WOMAN as her running mate, saying the GOP needs to “expand the demographic reach of our party.” Remember how women flocked to Geraldine Ferraro and Sarah Palin? AP and the Huffington Post published the ensuing stunningly absurd and insulting headlines/stories that generated beaucoup derision and opprobrium. AP: Biden at 81: Often sharp and focused but sometimes confused and forgetful (not a parody!) https://apnews.com/article/biden-age-election-debate-trump-7c366fda83a697265d9ecc77e8a32fd1 It’s Time for The Biden Campaign to Embrace AI (Isn’t this fraudulent?) – Huffington Post After the president’s dismal debate performance, he noted that he “might not walk as easily or talk as smoothly as I used to.” AI augmentations and video renderings could serve to smooth out these bumps… https://www.huffpost.com/entry/opinion-joe-biden-campaign-ai_n_668482b9e4b038babc7d56f2 @EndWokeness: The right loves the country but hates the government. The left hates the country but loves the government. Understanding this will explain it all. @janicehisle: Missouri @AGAndrewBailey goes straight to the US Supreme Court and accuses NY of “election interference” for prosecuting, gagging Trump. Calls for sentencing and gag order to be put on hold until after the Nov. 5 election. Document here https://ago.mo.gov/wp-content/uploads/Missouri-v.-NY.pdf @realtimsharp: One of the funniest things I have ever seen. (Dr. Jill addressing a class of small children and one shouts out, “Shut the f*** up!”) https://t.co/eNsjkpIrbB @VDHanson: Animal Farm Democrats – Leftists make up things as they go along, as yesterday’s heresies (e.g., Biden seems demented) become today’s orthodoxies (e.g. Biden really is demented)—depending on the current party directive about what is most advantageous… The leftwing panic over Biden’s cognitive decline in the debate is not because he is clearly unable to fulfill the duties of a president… The hysteria instead arises solely because he might lose the Democrats power… https://x.com/VDHanson/status/1808634918723014685 Blinken: Protecting civilians must be ‘job number one’ for Israel in Gaza Top US diplomat says protection, assistance must be 1st priority, even as Israel defends itself from ‘threat posed by Hamas’; Israel set to ‘flood’ Gaza with aid from multiple points https://www.timesofisrael.com/blinken-protecting-civilians-must-be-job-number-one-for-israel/ Was protecting civilians in WWII Germany, ‘job number one for the USA?’ Asking for a friend! 10 Disasters That Were Actually Caused by Climate Change – Babylon BeeThe Hindenburg disasterThe Jan. 6 capitol riotsThe Destruction of AlderaanChernobylThe defeat of the English at Bannockburn in 1314Taylor Swift’s transition to pop musicCats (2019)The Monica Lewinsky scandalHyperinflation under BidenThe destruction of Sodom and Gomorrahhttps://babylonbee.com/news/10-disasters-that-were-actually-caused-by-climate-change | |
GREG HUNTER
Dems Destruct, War Cycle Heats Up, Bird Flu Coming
By Greg Hunter On July 5, 2024 In Weekly News Wrap-Ups4 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (7.5.24 WNW 641)
The Democrats appear to be destroying themselves over the Biden/Trump debate debacle. Martin Armstrong called it early last month and said the Dems wanted Biden to do poorly in the debate with Trump so they could get rid of him in November. It’s not going to be easy to get Joe Biden off the Democrat ticket as he has already secured the nomination. Somebody had a plan to get rid of him, but not everybody was in on the plan–including Joe and Jill Biden and son Hunter. Messy does not begin to describe the problems. Cluster F*** would be a better description. You could say this is a classic example of evil hating on evil. This is unlike anything anyone has ever seen in American Politics, and, remember, Joe Biden’s true job approval rating is somewhere between 6% and 7%. The Trump/Biden debate did not help him—just the opposite.
Israel has just killed another senior Hezbollah commander in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Hezbollah has just fired a fresh 200 rockets into Israel. Is this proof that Charles Nenner’s War Cycle is “turning straight up”? There is no end in sight to the Gaza War either, although both sides are talking about a ceasefire that, so far, has not been accomplished. In Ukraine, the Russians are busy destroying Ukraine’s Airforce. It’s reported Russian drones just destroyed 5 more jets on the ground. Russia is vowing to destroy the F-16s that are supposed to be delivered to Ukraine soon. Meanwhile, PM Victor Orban of Hungary is trying to get a ceasefire deal, but will NATO and Secretary of State Tony Blinken derail it?
Former CDC Director Robert Redfield has been predicting a “Bird Flu” virus will cause the next plandemic. There is an International Bird Flu Summit in early October in Washington D.C. Mark Crispin Miller points out the scary comparison to the CV19 conference at Johns Hopkins called Event 201 in October of 2019. That was just a few months before the CV19 plandemic in 2020. Is history repeating itself, or is evil just taking another shot at more depopulation?
There is much more in the 51-minute newscast.
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Renowned radio personality, filmmaker and book author Steve Quayle will be the guest for the Saturday Night Post. He will talk about how close we are to a global war and the coming bank crisis nobody is warning you about. Quayle has top notch sources and data to back this up.
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