GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $12.00 TO $2373.10
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.04 TO $30.75
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.” — Benjamin Franklin
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2371.90
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.83
Bitcoin morning price:$58.617 UP 714 DOLLARS. bankers doing a good job destroying the value of bitcoin
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $57,680 DOWN 223 dollars//
Platinum price closing DOWN $3.40 TO $995.10
Palladium price; UP $7.90 AT $989,90
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 21 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//august to august
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 10 Jul 2024 01:31:35 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3230.58 UP 8.20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1846.40 DOWN 2.84 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2190.75 UP 6.51 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16//.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,360.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/09/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/11/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 1
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 5 5
MONTH TO DATE: 2,722
JPMorgan stopped 0/5
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 5 NOTICES FOR 500 OZ or 0.01555 TONNES
total notices so far: 2722 contracts for 272,200 Oz (8.4665 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 121 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.605 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5753 for 28.765 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $12.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: BIG CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $.04 AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 436.356 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 436.356 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 958 CONTRACTS TO 163,245 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.13 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN OF 1236 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 464 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 464 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.13) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1231 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.13.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A FAIR SIZED 278 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 15,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 29.595 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 464 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL ADDED 5 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 DAYS, total 7432 contracts: OR 37.160 MILLION OZ (1062 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 37.160 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 37.160 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 958 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 278 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 15,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 29.595 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1236 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 464 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (464) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 121 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.605 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6257 OI CONTRACTS TO 516,324 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 332 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (6257 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $5.00 IN PRICE/TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 8.5629 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $5.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 9481 OI CONTRACTS (29.48 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 3224 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 516,324
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9481 CONTRACTS WITH 6257 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 3224 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9481 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 34,115 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3224 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 6257 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9481 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 8.5629 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 34,115 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 34,322 CONTRACTS OR 3,432,200 OZ OR 106.75 TONNES IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4903 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 7 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 106.75 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 106.75 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.01% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 106.75 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 958 CONTRACTS OI TO 163,245 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 278 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 278 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 278 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 958 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 278 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1236 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 6.180 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.13 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.01 PTS OR 0.68% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 51.56 PTS OR 0.29% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 251.82 OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2755 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2908/ Oil DOWN TO 81.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 84.38/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6257 CONTRACTS TO 516,324 WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.00 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3244 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 3255 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3244 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9481 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3224 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 6257 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.00/TUESDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 34,115 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. TODAY’S ISSUANCE WAS ANOTHER WHOPPER.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (8.5629 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 8.5629 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $5.00 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9913 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 30.83 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.5629 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 8.5629 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.00
WE HAVE REMOVED 830 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 9913 CONTRACTS OR 991,300 OZ (30.83 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 365,518 contracts//good
//speculators have left the gold arena
JULY 9 JULY GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JULY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 5 notice(s) 500 OZ 0.01555 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 31 contracts 3100 OZ 0.0964 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2722 notices 272,200 oz 8.4665 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS NIL
Adjustments:2 CUSTOMER TO DEALER
A) JPMorgan 482.265 oz
B0) Brinks: 14,757.309 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 36 contracts having LOST 24 contracts. We had 28 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand at the comex (0.0124 tonnes)
AUGUST lost 26,216 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 301,069 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 212.
OCTOBER GAINED 2823 CONTRACTS UP TO 29,649 CONTRACTS
We had 5 contracts filed for today representing 500 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 2 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2722) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 36( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz per contract( equals 275,300 OZ OR 8.5629 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2722 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (36 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (5) x 100 oz which equals 275,300 oz (8.5629TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 8.5629 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,686,834.101 oz 52.46 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,699,745.305 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,823,427.995 ( 243.34 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,861,592.151 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,136,593oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.87 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 10/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 595,603.940oz ASAHI Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | into JPMorgan: 590,457.540 oz |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 121 CONTRACT(S) (.605 million OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 166 contracts (0.830 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5723 Contracts (28.765 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i)Into JPMorgan; 590,457.540 oz
total customer deposit 590,457.540 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 128.973million oz/298.996million or 43.14%
adjustment: 1
i) Manfra 577,306.500 oz customer to dealer
customer withdrawals: 2
i) out of Delaware 5146.400 oz
ii) out of Ashai: 590,457.540 oz
total withdrawal: 595,603.940 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.560 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 298.996
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 287 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 221 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 224 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED A 3 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 15,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE.
AUG, SAW A LOSS OF 13 CONTRACTS TO 1368
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 524 CONTRACTS TO 131,774
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 121 for 0.605 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 59,836 large
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5753 x 5,000 oz = 28.765 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 287) and the number of notices served upon today 121 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 5753 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (287)x number of notices served upon today minus (121)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 29.595 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 29.595 million oz.
There are 70.560 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 833.37 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 436.356 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
Peter Schiff: More Doom In The Data
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 10:15 AM
In this episode, Peter recaps the latest batch of economic data, in which revisions to job numbers and a declining manufacturing sector bode poorly for the economy. He also analyzes gold and silver’s big week last week and offers some thoughts on President Biden’s recent post-debate interview on ABC.
Friday saw an apparently optimistic jobs report overshadowed by large downward revisions for May’s and April’s figures:
“They were expecting 189,000 jobs created, and we ended up exceeding that with 206,000 jobs. … In fact, Biden once again bragged that the jobs that were created were over 200,000 for the month. Of course, he took credit for those jobs. But as is normally the case, once you look beneath the surface— and you don’t have to look deep beneath the surface—you get another very weak jobs report. Let’s start with their downward revisions because there were quite a few downward revisions. Both of the prior months were revised down. So April was revised down by 57,000 jobs, and May was revised down by 54,000 jobs. That’s not insignificant.”
Weak manufacturing job growth is indicative of America’s economic woes:
“The government now says that it was zero, that no manufacturing jobs at all were created in May, and 8,000 were lost in June. Again, these are the productive jobs that we need people making stuff. We’re not making stuff. We’re consuming more bigger trade deficits. This is a weak report that is also inflationary.
So it’s stagflation, a weak economy, and more inflationary pressures.
The labor force participation rate stayed at 62.6, which is a very weak number. And significantly, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%. It was 4% in the prior month unrevised, and it went up to 4.1%. That is significant.”
If anything, these statistics are still too optimistic.
[ZH: US macro data has serially disappointed for the last year and the last three months have seen a dramatic negative swing…]
Changes in government statistical methods paper over underlying economic fault lines:
“That’s why when you look at these rigged unemployment numbers and you come to the conclusion that we have a strong economy with low unemployment and you don’t understand why Biden is so unpopular, it’s because the way we’re keeping track of these economic statistics is wrong.
The real statistics— if we measured the economy the way we did prior to 1994— you can see why so many people are so miserable.”
With gold hovering closer to $2400/oz, Peter thinks gold mining stocks will improve shortly:
“Gold is holding at a very high price. I expect a lot of these gold mining companies to report much better earnings than the street expects because the price of gold is staying at much higher prices for a much longer period of time than these analysts penciled into their earnings forecast.
So I still think that this is the best way right now to play the gold sector is through these mining stocks. I think they’re still dirt cheap. There’s incredible value there. People should be buying these stocks.”
Peter slams President Biden’s most recent ABC interview in which he tries to excuse his ghastly debate performance. In addition to the president’s still-apparent cognitive problems, Peter takes issue with Biden calling Donald Trump a liar:
“You know what I detest most is hypocrisy, right? … Biden tells a lot of outright lies. I mean, complete lies. He has no right to call anybody a liar. When you do something yourself, you can’t accuse somebody else. It’s not just, you know, living in glass houses and not throwing stones. Biden has been in politics all of his life. And you don’t stay in politics without being a liar. You’re not going to have a long political career unless you’re a good liar. You’ve got to lie a lot to get reelected that often.
And so he has no right to keep focusing on Trump lying, Trump lying. In fact, the reason he wants to talk about Trump’s lies so much is because that’s what he does. His whole presidency is a lie. Everything out of his mouth is a lie.”
For more technical analysis of last week’s metals price action, check out the SchiffGold Gold Wrap podcast.
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Not very smart for Canada to allow gold exports to China
(National post)
Canada’s gold exports to China rise, shining through the trade tensions
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-07-09 11:13 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Gabriel Friedman
National Post, Toronto
Monday, July 8, 2024
China’s demand for gold has risen in the past few years, helping to usher in record-breaking prices and a growing trade relationship with Canada for the shiny metal.
In the past, interest rates in the United States and flows into or out of gold-backed exchange-traded funds were used by many analysts as a quick way to predict the direction of the gold price. In recent years, though, U.S. interest rates rose and gold-backed ETF holdings contracted, which should have softened gold prices, but the price of bullion reached all-time highs, currently at US$2,371 per ounce.
“Gold’s bellwether relationship with U.S. real interest rates has broken down quite spectacularly over the past two years, with gold reaching all-time highs despite high real rates,” Max Layton, global head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc., said in a new note on gold prices.
He said gold demand from China and central banks accounted for 85% of mine supply through the first three months of 2024 and 70% on average during the prior two years. That’s up from 25% during the three-year period from 2019 to 2021. …
… For the remainder of the report:
https://financialpost.com/commodities/mining/canada-gold-exports-china-rise-trade-tensions
end
makes sense!!~
Nigerian lawmakers want central bank to fight inflation with gold
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-07-09 11:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Nduka Orjinmo
Bloomberg News
Tuesday, July 9, 2024
Nigerian lawmakers are proposing a dramatic increase in the central bank’s power to use gold to shore up the nation’s reserves in defense of the economy.
A draft bill before the Senate puts forward a raft of policies that would enshrine the bank as the automatic off-taker for all the gold produced in the country, alongside a goal to make the precious metal at least 30% of Nigeria’s external reserves.
..Gold at the end of November only accounted for 4% of the nation’s reserves, which currently stand at $34.8 billion.
Africa’s most populous nation is battling inflation that’s at a more than 28-year high following economic reforms that partially lifted petrol subsidies and removed the currency’s peg against the dollar, with the naira declining around 70% against the dollar in the past 12 months.
Lawmakers propose setting up a Gold Reserve Authority. They also want the central bank governor to chair a gold reserve management committee, whose composition and functions closely mirrors the monetary policy committee of the bank, in a document seen by Bloomberg.
The Central Bank of Nigeria didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.
Gold mining in Nigeria is largely informal and makes only a tiny measurable contribution to the economy. The bill, which follows a 2019 central bank gold purchase program, would enshrine its role into law while bringing the industry into the formal sector. …
For the remainder of the report:
* * *.
4. GOLD PODCASTS/OR OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/URANIUM
Uranium Stocks Soar As New Mineral Tax In Kazakhstan Will Drive Higher Uranium Prices
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 02:45 PM
Uranium mining stocks soared on Wednesday after a surprise hike in extraction taxes in Kazakhstan, the world’s largest uranium-producing country, which BMO Capital Markets said will limit future supply growth.
As Interfax first reported, the government in Kazakhstan introduced a new Mineral Extraction Tax (MET) for uranium, replacing the existing 6% flat rate MET introduced in 2023.
Per the new code, the new MET rate is to increase to 9% from 6% in 2025. However, the biggest change is from 2026 onwards where the Government has introduced a two-tier MET, calculated based on production output and spot uranium prices (see the table below).
According to BMO analyst Alexander Pearce, the new mineral extraction tax “is a surprise given it was increased in 2023.” He also notes that “the new rates are not marginal, thus the new MET penalizes large mining assets with potential MET of up to 20.5% (18% for anything over 4ktU, or ~10.4Mlb U3O8, plus an additional 2.5% if the uranium price is >US$110/lb).
Pearce calculates the potential impact to cash flow and concludes that the new MET could impact Kazatomprom’s NPV10% by 5-10% and 2025 EBITDA by up to 5%, and that “from 2026 onwards the EBITDA impact could be ~8-12%.”
More significantly, however, he warns that the new rates “appear to provide less incentive for Kazatomprom to increase production, in our view, with less penalty for higher uranium prices than production, which could add to support for the uranium price.”
The bottom line is that “with rates as high as 18% linked to production (from 6%) and additional 2.5% linked to uranium prices, there would now appear to be less incentive to increase production in future year” and “while this could have as much as a 5-12% impact to future cash flow, increasing uncertainty over future supply could drive higher uranium prices“
As news of the new tax spread across markets, the top-performing stocks in the S&P/TSX Composite Index on Wednesday are all uranium miners, led by NexGen Energy +6.8%, Denison Mines +6.8% and Cameco +6.6%. US-trader uranium stocks were also all sharply higher, with names such as CCJ, UEC, URA and URNM all soaring.
END
6.CRYPTOCURRENCY//DIGITAL CURRENCY// COMMENTARIES/
END
ASIA TRADING//WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.01 PTS OR 0.68% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 51.56 PTS OR 0.29% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 251.82 OR 0.61%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.21%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2755 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2908/ Oil DOWN TO 81.16 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 84.38/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2758
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2908
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.01 PTS OR 0.68 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 51.56 PTS OR 0.29%
2. Nikkei closed UP 251.82 PTS OR 0.61%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.74 EURO FALLS TO 1.0819 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,080 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 161.49 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5200/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.866 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.298%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.520
3j Gold at $2377.25//Silver at: 31.04 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 1 AND 48/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 87.99
3m oil into the 81 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 161.49/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.080% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8979 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9719 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.271 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.466 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.637 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.89…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.138 DOWN 7 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Another Day, Another Record High, Another Tech Meltup
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 08:23 AM
Stop us when this starts sounding familiar: futures are – once again – higher, led by tech with small-caps also outperforming following another all-time high, the 36th of 2024, fueled by dovish Powell comments. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% to a new all time high, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.3%, also to a new all time high, with premarket gains – once again – led by semis as TSMC sales beat expectations, +40% vs. +35.5% consensus. As a result, all Mag7 names are higher – Tesla is set for a 10th gain in a row – and several large-cap banks are higher, too. Yields on two-year Treasuries traded near a three-month low, reflecting a popular bet that the US yield curve will steepen, although today 10Y yields also dipped, and were down 3bps to 4.27%, aided by expectations for loose fiscal policy. Bond yields are down 2bps and the USD starts the day flat. Commodities are weaker but there is some relief in the Energy complex with both crude/natgas higher. Yesterday’s 3Y auction showed surprising strength, keep an eye on today’s 10Y auction, amid 4x Fed speakers including the 2nd day of Powell’s congressional testimony. JPM predicts that we may see another low volume session ahead of tomorrow’s CPI release; the market is pricing Sep and Dec rate cuts so an inline print keeps that on track.
In premarket trading, Aehr Test Systems shares surged 15% after its fourth-quarter revenue beat estimates. LegalZoom.com tumbled 30% after the legal services company cut its full-year revenue guidance to below consensus estimates. It also named chairman Jeffrey Stibel as CEO, replacing Dan Wernikoff. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
- 3M Co. slips 0.8% after saying CFO Monish Patolawala has resigned to “pursue another opportunity” following the recent appointment of the industrial product company’s chief executive officer, Bill Brown.
- Air Products climbs 2% after Honeywell agreed to buy the company’s LNG unit.
- Illumina rises 3% after the gene-sequencing company said it has acquired Fluent BioSciences – a developer of single-cell technology. Shares of competitor 10X Genomics (TXG), which is in the single-cell space, slump 12% on the news.
- MarineMax climbs 3% after Island Capital Group proposed to buy up to 100% interest in the company’s YMRS business.
- Riskified falls 7% after Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation to sell.
- Smart Global climbs 6% after the semiconductor device company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.
The S&P 500 climbed for a sixth consecutive session on Tuesday, its longest winning streak since January. Here are some striking facts from The Market Ear showing just how this bull market rally just won’t end:
- Megacap Tech is +50% YTD, good for the second best 6-month start in its history. For context, last year was the best 6-month start: +54%
- NDX higher 8 of the last 9 sessions, good for a quick 5%
- S&P 500 up the first six days of July. This is officially the second longest win streak ever to start July (’89 had 10).
- AAPL +18% since WWDC… Its third best 18-session move since Covid
- Tesla higher for the 10th day in a row
- The worst day the past two months for the S&P 500 is only 0.74%.
- Now 345-day streak without a 2% S&P 500 decline
Speaking to lawmakers Tuesday, Powell was careful not to offer a timeline for interest-rate cuts, which investors are now betting will begin in September. Further Congressional testimony by Powell on Wednesday, and key US inflation and jobs data tomorrow, may provide further clues on the policy path.
“We’re in position for curve steepeners,” Nicola Mai, sovereign credit analyst at Pimco, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “This year or early next year we should be getting to that disinversion of the curve for a couple of reasons. First of all rates should start to fall. Also I think the long end of the curve is going to remain high on fiscal concerns.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 adds 0.5%, led by gains in real estate, travel and telecommunication. Here are the most notable premarket movers:
- Kongsberg jumps as much as 10%, hitting a record high, after the Norwegian defense and aerospace group reported 2Q earnings which DNB praised as a “broad-based beat”
- Technip Energies rises as much as 5.9% after analysts at Morgan Stanley raised their price target on the engineering and technology company by around 10%
- Hapag-Lloyd gains as much as 7.8%, the most in a month, after the German shipper updated its FY guidance. Analysts say the move was expected following an extended surge in shipping rates
- Porsche rises as much as 4.7% after the luxury carmaker hosted a pre-close call with analysts on Tuesday. Oddo said comments on the call provided optimism for the firm’s upcoming 2Q results
- Jeronimo Martins jumps as much as 5.4% to a one-month high after UBS double upgraded the food retailer to buy, expecting to see an inflection in sales growth and margins
- Enagas shares gain as much as 5.7% after the Spanish gas utility reached an agreement to sell its 30.2% stake in Tallgrass Energy to Blackstone Infrastructure Partners for $1.1 billion
- Volkswagen falls as much as 2.3% after the German carmaker issued a profit warning, though analysts saw a silver lining in the effort to close a production site
- European miners slide for a fourth day, with iron ore declining amid a wave of negative signals from China, while copper drops again as investors weigh the demand outlook from the country
- Impax shares drop as much as 14% after the UK asset manager reported net outflows of £1.89 billion for the quarter, prompting analysts at Peel Hunt to lower their price target
- AAK drops as much as 3.6% after ABG Sundal Collier downgrades its rating on the Swedish specialty oils firms, citing valuation after the company closed at a record high on Tuesday
- Barratt Developments slips as much as 3.1% after the housebuilder’s FY25 outlook disappointed the markets. Jefferies says this highlights the need for it to complete its proposed merger with Redrow
Earlier, Asian stocks edged higher as major markets saw mixed moves following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index traded in a tight range Wednesday, up 0.1% as of 5:09 p.m. in Hong Kong. TSMC was the largest contributor to the advance as its second quarter sales figures exceeded expectations. Japanese stocks gained as investors weighed the Bank of Japan’s next move, while Singapore shares closed at a six-year high. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and mainland China reversed earlier gains. A high-profile gathering of China’s top leaders next week will be keenly watched for the winners and losers in the country’s stocks as the latest inflation readings pointed to persistent deflationary pressure.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed. The New Zealand dollar underperforms G-10 FX, falling 0.9% against the dollar after the Reserve Bank toned down its hawkish rhetoric, suggesting it could ease monetary policy sooner than previously signaled. The Norwegian krone nurses a similar drop after underlying inflation fell to the lowest level in more than two years.
In rates, treasuries edge higher and hold curve-flattening gains, with long-end yields richer by around 2.5bp on the day, amid a bigger bull-flattening move in European bonds. The 10-year yield trades around 4.27%, more than 2bp richer on the day, trailing German and UK counterparts by 3bp and 4bp. 2s10s and 5s30s spreads are tighter by ~1bp, unwinding a portion of Tuesday’s curve-steepening move. Bunds, gilts and French OATs outperform comparable US bonds across the curve. The US session features a 10-year note reopening as well as Fed Chair Powell’s testimony to the House Financial Services Committee following his Senate testimony Tuesday. The week’s Treasury auction cycle continues at 1pm New York time with $39b 10-year reopening and concludes Thursday with $22b 30-year reopening. Tuesday’s 3-year sale drew strong demand, stopping through by 0.8bp. The When Issued 10-year yield at ~4.27% is ~17bp richer than June’s auction, which stopped through by 2bp.
Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to near $81.70 as concerns about Chinese demand and continued uncertainty over the timeline for Fed rate cuts clashed with signs of another inventory draw in the US. Copper and iron ore declined, while gold rose $9 to around $2,373/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes May wholesale inventories at 10am. Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee at 10am in Washington. Goolsbee and Bowman (2:30pm) and Cook (7:30pm) are also slated to speak
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,637.25
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 513.22
- MXAP little changed at 185.08
- MXAPJ down 0.2% to 577.60
- Nikkei up 0.6% to 41,831.99
- Topix up 0.5% to 2,909.20
- Hang Seng Index down 0.3% to 17,471.67
- Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 2,939.36
- Sensex down 0.9% to 79,635.35
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,816.81
- Kospi little changed at 2,867.99
- German 10Y yield -4.6bps at 2.53%
- Euro little changed at $1.0815
- Brent Futures down 0.1% to $84.56/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,373.43
- US Dollar Index little changed at 105.14
Top Overnight News
- China’s CPI cools by more than anticipated in June, coming in at +0.2% (vs. the Street +0.4% and down from +0.3% in May), while the PPI was inline at -0.8% (up modestly from -1.4% in May). RTRS
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held its official cash rate steady at 5.50% on Wednesday, staying in what central bank Gov. Adrian Orr likes to call watch-worry-and-wait mode. Still, the RBNZ’s cautious narrative softened somewhat amid an admission that inflation pressures are starting to ease. WSJ
- Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to break through Ukrainian defenses that are now reinforced with Western munitions, U.S. officials say. NYT
- Saudi Arabia privately hinted earlier this year it might sell some European debt holdings if the Group of Seven decided to seize almost $300 billion of Russia’s frozen assets, people familiar with the matter said. CNN
- George Stephanopoulos, the ABC news anchor who recently interviewed President Biden about his fitness for the presidential race, was caught on camera Tuesday indicating that he doesn’t think Biden can serve another four years. WaPo
- Biden delivered one of his strongest recent public appearances on Tues during remarks at the NATO summit, although the world will be watching the press conf. he plans to hold on Thursday. CNN
- Having spent the last week and a half in various stages of private panic and public skepticism about Mr. Biden’s viability as a candidate and whispering among themselves about what the best way to push him aside might be — a strongly worded letter? a White House meeting? a high-level intervention? — top Democrats on Tuesday settled on a strategy many of them conceded could be disastrous: They would do nothing, at least for now. NYT
- Microsoft and Apple relinquished the chance to be observers on OpenAI’s board in a surprise decision that underscores growing scrutiny from antitrust regulators over the relationship between Big Tech and AI. BBG
- Apple saw big PC unit growth in Q2 (+20.8%) while HPQ (HP Inc.) rose 1.8% and DELL (Dell) dipped 2.4%. IDC
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance stateside where the major indices finished rangebound after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script and refrained from providing any signals on the timing of future policy action. ASX 200 was mildly pressured amid underperformance in the heavy industry sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses despite initially printing fresh intraday record highs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. diverged with the former kept afloat by outperformance among tech names such as Baidu, JD, Meituan & Alibaba, while the mainland conformed to the mostly downbeat mood after softer-than-expected Chinese CPI data and several companies also flagged losses for H1.
Top Asian News
- RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that the Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain restrictive and the extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures. RBNZ said some domestically generated price pressures remain strong but there are signs inflation persistence will ease in line with the fall in capacity pressures and business pricing intentions. Furthermore, it noted that the appropriate stance of monetary policy was discussed and the Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1%-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
- China’s MOFCOM is to investigate EU trade barriers following the probe on Chinese firms, investigation to occur between 10th July to 10th January 2025, can be extended to April
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) are modestly in the green, paring back some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, though with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Real Estate tops the pile, whilst Basic Resources is subdued by broader weakness in the metals complex, following the softer than expected Chinese inflation data. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.3%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer, with the ES & NQ sitting at session highs, whilst the RTY remains within recent ranges. TSMC (2330 TW) June (TWD): Sales 207.87bln (May’s 229.6bln). Q2: 673.5bln (exp. 654.27bln)
Top European News
- Starmer Says Ukraine Can Use UK Missiles to Strike Inside Russia
- ECB’s Vujcic Proposed for New Term as Croatian Central-Bank Head
- UK Hospital Hack Raises Kidney Patients’ Heart Failure Risk
- European Shares Rise as Wall Street Hits Record, Powell in Focus
FX
- DXY is holding above the 105 mark within yesterday’s 104.95-105.20 range. Powell’s comments on Tuesday had little follow-through to the USD and this will likely remain the case when he appears before the House today, ahead of CPI on Thursday.
- Steady trade for the EUR with EUR/USD stuck within yesterday’s 1.0805-33 range with markets not currently looking to test support at the 1.08 mark which also coincides with the 200DMA.
- Cable is currently holding around the 1.28 mark and respecting yesterday’s 1.2777-1.2825 range. GBP remains elevated in the context of greater political certainty and hawkish comments from Haskel on Monday.
- USD/JPY is back onto a 161 handle, having chopped and changed around the 161 mark in recent trading sessions.
- NZD the laggard across the majors amid less hawkish language from the RBNZ alongside its widely-expected decision to stand pat on rates.
- USD/CNH is moving ever closer to the 7.30 mark in the wake of soft inflation metrics overnight and as the PBoC fixing edges gradually higher.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1342 vs exp. 7.2711 (prev. 7.1310).
Fixed Income
- USTs are very modestly firmer, up to a 110-17 peak with Tuesday’s 110-18 and Monday’s 110-20+ highs in close proximity. Fed Chair Powell will appear before the House, though is unlikely to deviate much from commentary provided yesterday.
- Bunds hold a bullish bias, emerging early in the European morning, having traded relatively contained overnight. Thus far, Bunds have been as high as 131.38, eclipsing Tuesday’s 131.31 best.
- Gilt price action is in-fitting with Bunds; boosted to above the 98.00 mark to a 98.23 peak, similarly to Bunds, this eclipses Tuesday’s best but stalls before Monday’s 98.27 high.
- Germany sells EUR 1.75bln vs exp. EUR 2bln 1.00% 2038 and 0.00% 2036 Bund.
Commodities
- Crude was initially subdued, with prices heading lower following the softer than expected Chinese inflation metrics. However, prices then began to climb around the time a security source suggested 3 additional teams of the Israeli ground forces are ready in the Northern Command, according to Al Arabiya. Brent September futures fell to a USD 84/bbl vs current levels at USD 84.90/bbl.
- Precious metals are modestly firmer across the board but with the ranges relatively narrow, with mild outperformance seen in silver prices which attempt another move towards USD 31/oz.
- Base metals are lower across the board amid the ongoing weakness in Chinese markets coupled with sub-forecast Chinese CPI and continued deflationary PPI.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.9mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate +2.3mln (exp. +0.8mln), Gasoline -3.0mln (exp. -0.6mln), Cushing -1.2mln.
- Magnitude 6.7 earthquake occurred south of Africa, around 2.1km away from Western Cape, South Africa, via USGS
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Security source for Al-Arabiya: 3 additional teams of the Israeli ground forces are ready in the Northern Command”, according to Al Arabiya; “The Israeli General Staff is ready with the air and naval arms”.
- “IRGC commander: If necessary, we will take practical and direct steps and support the resistance forces in the region”, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli military said its air force struck a Hezbollah target in the Janta area of central Lebanon, according to Reuters.
- Israel’s Channel 12 cited the Minister of Culture who stated they are ready to make concessions to conclude the hostage deal and there is a strong desire among the majority of the members of the government and the PM to pass the deal. However, the minister added that they tell Hamas they will not retreat until they achieve their goals and will strengthen military power in Gaza, according to Al Jazeera.
Geopolitics: Other
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said America’s leaders must be strong and uncompromising in defending Ukraine’s democracy against Russian President Putin, while he urged international leaders to aid Ukraine and not to wait for the US election in November.
- US President Biden said at the NATO Summit that Ukraine will be able to stop Russian President Putin and stand up to him, while they are committed to supporting Ukraine. Furthermore, Biden said the US and its allies will provide Ukraine with five additional strategic air defence systems and they intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of tactical air defence systems in the coming months.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said their support for Ukraine comes with costs and risks and there are no risk-free options in war. Stoltenberg said a Russian victory would embolden Iran, North Korea, and China which all want NATO to fail, while he added that the outcome of the Ukraine war will shape global security for decades to come.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance denied the threat of selling European bonds and maintained that the relationship with G7 and others is mutually respected, according to source via social media platform X.
- US’ new envoy to Taiwan, Raymond Greene, said “First of all, and the most important thing, the U.S. will strongly support Taiwan’s self-defense capabilities,”, via AP.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: July MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -2.6%
- 10:00: May Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
- 10:00: May Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%
Central Bank Speakers
- 10:00: Fed’s Powell Testifies to House Financial Services
- 14:30: Fed’s Goolsbee, Bowman Give Opening Remarks at Childcare Event
- 19:30: Fed’s Cook Speaks on Global Inflation, Monetary Policy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After a lot of resilience through increasingly challenging macro news of late, markets were under a bit more pressure yesterday, which seems strange to say when the S&P 500 (+0.07%) edged up to a 36th all-time high for the year. The Mag-7 (+0.91%) dragged the index up yet again, but most US stocks were lower and French assets saw a sharp decline amidst the ongoing political gridlock, which meant the CAC 40 (-1.56%) saw its worst move in over three weeks while the Franco-German 10yr spread rose by +3.8bps. That went alongside broader declines for sovereign bonds, as there was disappointment that Fed Chair Powell didn’t sound more dovish in his congressional testimony, particularly given the uptick in the unemployment rate last week.
Overall, Powell’s tone was a fairly balanced one, and he reiterated the Fed’s message that they needed “greater confidence” that inflation was moving back towards target. Nevertheless, he also explicitly said in his statement that “elevated inflation is not the only risk we face”, pointing out that keeping policy too restrictive “could unduly weaken economic activity and employment” and that “labor-market conditions have now cooled considerably”. So there was an acknowledgement of the risk of staying on hold too long.
But despite Powell’s comments, Treasury yields initially moved higher across the curve. In large part, that was because of hopes that Powell would be even more dovish, and it’s worth noting that markets were already pricing more easing than the Fed had signalled in their June dot plot. For instance, the median dot had pointed to just one rate cut this year, but futures were fully pricing in two rate cuts before Powell’s testimony and this was little changed on the day (-0.4bps at 50bps). Treasury yields were a few bps higher intraday as Powell spoke, but began to turn lower around the end of his testimony. The 2yr yield ended the session -0.3bps lower at 4.63%, with the reversal also helped by a solid 3yr Treasury auction that saw $58bn of bonds issued 0.8bps below the pre-sale yield. Still, the 10yr yield closed +1.7bps higher on the day at 4.30%.
Aside from monetary policy, one other comment from Powell was around the new Basel proposals on bank capital, where Powell said that they had “ made quite a bit of progress and are very close to agreeing the substance of those changes ”. That came as Reuters reported yesterday that the Fed was considering a change to the GSIB surcharge that global systemically important banks have to hold.
Over in Europe, political risk remained the prominent theme yesterday, with France no closer to forming a government. It isn’t clear how a government can be formed given the split between three major groups in the National Assembly, and even the largest group (the left-wing alliance) are more than 100 seats away from an overall majority. That backdrop has seen French equities decline further, with the CAC 40 (-1.56%) down for a 3rd consecutive day, alongside fresh losses for BNP Paribas (-2.35%) and Société Générale (-2.22%). Indeed, it means the CAC 40 is now only just above its recent low on June 28 ahead of the first round vote, and the index is only a little more than 1% away from entering technical correction territory, having shed almost -9% since its recent peak back in mid-May. Sovereign bonds also struggled, with yields on 10yr OATs (+7.8bps), Bunds (+4.6bps) and BTPs (+5.4bps) all rising.
Equities followed a similar pattern across Europe, although the losses weren’t quite as large as France. That included the STOXX 600 (-0.90%), the DAX (-1.28%) and the FTSE 100 (-0.66%). But over in the US there was a stronger performance that left the S&P 500 (+0.07%) at another record high, and it was also the index’s 6th consecutive advance for the first time since January. That was driven by the Magnificent 7 (+0.91%), with a weaker tone more broadly. Indeed, 60% of the S&P 500 were down on the day, while the small-cap Russell 2000 (-0.45%) was almost back into negative territory on a YTD basis.
Overnight in Asia, equity markets have remained fairly steady overnight, with no major moves in either direction. Looking at some of the major indices, the Hang Seng (+0.27%) is up a bit, whilst the CSI 300 (+0.01%), the KOSPI (-0.03%) and the Nikkei (-0.04%) have seen little change, and the Shanghai Comp (-0.33%) has fallen. That comes against the backdrop of China’s latest inflation data for June, which showed that deflationary pressures are still present. For instance, the PPI remained in deflationary territory, falling -0.8% year-on-year as expected, whilst the CPI was up just +0.2% (vs. +0.4% expected). Looking forward, US equity futures are pointing to further gains, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.04%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.14%) both up this morning.
Elsewhere overnight, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its Official Cash rate unchanged at 5.5%, in line with expectations. However, there were some dovish aspects, and the meeting summary said that “ A range of business and consumer surveys, and higher frequency spending and credit data, all point to declining activity.” In turn, the New Zealand Dollar has weakened against other major currencies, and is down -0.57% against the US Dollar this morning, and its 10yr government bond yield is down -4.9bps.
To the day ahead now, and we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell again at the House Financial Services Committee today. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Goolsbee, Bowman and Cook, Bundesbank President Nagel, and the BoE’s Pill and Mann. Finally, data releases include Italy’s industrial production for May.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
RBNZ unchanged with language less hawkish, DXY rangebound & APAC trade mixed – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 01:29 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance stateside where the major indices finished rangebound after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script.
- DXY traded rangebound, USD/JPY continued its gradual upward trend, NZD was pressured after RBNZ, and CNY did not react to softer-than-expected Chinese CPI.
- RBNZ unsurprisingly maintained the OCR at 5.50% although its language was less hawkish as it added that the extent of restraint will be tempered over time.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed down by 1.3% on Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Chinese Loans, Financing & M2 Money Supply, Norwegian CPI, BoJ Meeting with Bond Market Participants, Comments from Fed’s Powell, Goolsbee & BoE’s Pill, and Supply from Germany & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were mixed and the major indices were ultimately little changed following a choppy session and after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script on the first day of his testimony to Congress. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continued their trend of setting record highs but with the gains only marginal, while the Dow finished in shallow negative territory and Russell 2000 underperformed.
- SPX +0.07% at 5,577, NDX +0.07% at 20,453, DJI -0.13% at 39,292, RUT -0.45% at 2,029.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- WSJ’s Timiraos posted on X that “Powell inches the Fed closer to cutting rate” and suggested that Powell made a subtle but important shift in his assessment of the risks that moved the Fed closer to lowering interest rates when he said that the trade-offs between bringing inflation down and maintaining a solid labour market are changing.
- US Democrats’ full caucus meeting saw lawmakers both defend US President Biden and air concerns about his ability to take on former President Trump, according to Axios citing attendees of the meeting. Furthermore, one House Democrat who was in both meetings said most of the caucus is still with him which means he’ll stay in, while the lawmaker who told Axios on Monday night that the revolt is “over” said the gathering only confirmed that view.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed following the indecisive performance stateside where the major indices finished rangebound after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script and refrained from providing any signals on the timing of future policy action.
- ASX 200 was mildly pressured amid underperformance in the heavy industry sectors.
- Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses despite initially printing fresh intraday record highs.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. diverged with the former kept afloat by outperformance among tech names such as Baidu, JD, Meituan & Alibaba, while the mainland conformed to the mostly downbeat mood after softer-than-expected Chinese CPI data and several companies also flagged losses for H1.
- US equity futures traded sideways following the lack of conviction on Wall Street.
- European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed down by 1.3% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY traded rangebound after Fed Chair Powell largely stuck to the script during his testimony at the Senate where he gave no signals about the timing of future Fed policy action and noted that elevated inflation is not the only risk the Fed faces.
- EUR/USD lacked firm direction after trickling towards the 1.0800 level where it then bounced off its lows.
- GBP/USD eventually moved off yesterday’s worst levels although continues to languish beneath the 1.2800 handle.
- USD/JPY continued its gradual upward trend and briefly returned to north of 161.50 after inline/soft PPI data.
- Antipodeans were mixed with AUD/USD uneventful, while NZD was pressured following the RBNZ announcement in which the central bank unsurprisingly maintained the OCR at 5.50% although its language was less hawkish as the Committee agreed the OCR will need to remain restrictive but added the extent of restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1342 vs exp. 7.2711 (prev. 7.1310).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures lacked direction following post-Powell indecision and as a US 10-year auction looms.
- Bund futures nursed some of the recent losses ahead of incoming German supply and Bundesbank speakers.
- 10-year JGB futures pared some of their opening losses with the BoJ present in the market although the rebound is limited as the central bank meets with bond market participants for a second day after some had called for the BoJ to halve bond purchases.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained lacklustre amid some recent optimism regarding progress in Israel-Hamas hostage deal talks, while a larger-than-expected draw in headline private sector crude inventories had little lasting effect.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -1.9mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate +2.3mln (exp. +0.8mln), Gasoline -3.0mln (exp. -0.6mln), Cushing -1.2mln.
- US EIA STEO raised the forecast for 2024 world oil demand and now sees a 1.1mln BPD Y/Y increase, while it also raised the 2025 forecast for world oil demand growth by 300k BPD and now sees a 1.8mln BPD Y/Y increase.
- Port and City of Galveston were impacted by power outages after Hurricane Beryl, while port vessel operations remain suspended with a case-by-case consideration, according to the Galveston Maritime Commercial Centre.
- Spot gold eked slight gains with upside contained after yesterday’s choppy mood and somewhat balanced Powell comments.
- Copper futures were dampened amid the mixed sentiment in Asia and after softer-than-expected Chinese CPI data.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin saw two-way price action and gradually clawed back initial losses to extend above the USD 58,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- RBNZ kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% as expected, while it noted that the Committee agreed that the OCR will need to remain restrictive and the extent of this restraint will be tempered over time consistent with the expected decline in inflation pressures. RBNZ said some domestically generated price pressures remain strong but there are signs inflation persistence will ease in line with the fall in capacity pressures and business pricing intentions. Furthermore, it noted that the appropriate stance of monetary policy was discussed and the Committee is confident that inflation will return to within its 1%-3% target range over the second half of 2024.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese CPI MM (Jun) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
- Chinese CPI YY (Jun) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.3%)
- Chinese PPI YY (Jun) -0.8% vs. Exp. -0.8% (Prev. -1.4%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Jun) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.7%)
- Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Jun) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.4%, Rev. 2.6%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli military said its air force struck a Hezbollah target in the Janta area of central Lebanon, according to Reuters.
- Israel’s Channel 12 cited the Minister of Culture who stated they are ready to make concessions to conclude the hostage deal and there is a strong desire among the majority of the members of the government and the PM to pass the deal. However, the minister added that they tell Hamas they will not retreat until they achieve their goals and will strengthen military power in Gaza, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli strike that hit tents housing displaced families outside a school in Gaza’s Khan Younis killed 29 Palestinians, according to Hamas-run media office. It was also reported that Israeli artillery shelling targeted a northern Nuseirat refugee camp and Al-Mughraqa area in the Gaza Strip, according to Al Jazeera.
- Delegations from Egypt, Qatar, US and Israel are to meet in Doha on Wednesday for Gaza ceasefire talks, according to Al Qahera News citing a senior source. It was also reported that negotiations in Doha will discuss bridging the gaps, especially the ceasefire and the identity of the Palestinian prisoners, according to Al Jazeera citing the Israeli Broadcasting Corporation.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted the Maersk Sentosa ship in the Arabian Sea with several ballistic missiles, while they attacked the Marathopolis ship in the Arabian Sea and the MSC Patnaree ship in the Gulf of Aden.
OTHER
- Ukrainian President Zelensky said America’s leaders must be strong and uncompromising in defending Ukraine’s democracy against Russian President Putin, while he urged international leaders to aid Ukraine and not to wait for the US election in November.
- US President Biden said at the NATO Summit that Ukraine will be able to stop Russian President Putin and stand up to him, while they are committed to supporting Ukraine. Furthermore, Biden said the US and its allies will provide Ukraine with five additional strategic air defence systems and they intend to provide Ukraine with dozens of tactical air defence systems in the coming months.
- US National Security Advisor Sullivan said the US is to strengthen Ukraine’s air defences with F-16s.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said their support for Ukraine comes with costs and risks and there are no risk-free options in war. Stoltenberg said a Russian victory would embolden Iran, North Korea, and China which all want NATO to fail, while he added that the outcome of the Ukraine war will shape global security for decades to come.
- NATO official said Russia still lacks munitions and troops to launch a major offensive in Ukraine, while Ukraine is expected to intensify operations as supplies and conditions permit. NATO official said Russia needs to secure significant ammunition supplies from other countries and that President Putin still thinks time is on his side and is willing to endure truly staggering numbers of military casualties. The official also warned to expect large Russian attacks like the one on the Kyiv children’s hospital during the NATO summit.
- Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Finance denied the threat of selling European bonds and maintained that the relationship with G7 and others is mutually respected, according to source via social media platform X.
GLOBAL
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Global shipping firm Hapag-Lloyd (HLAG GY) raised its outlook amid strong shipping demand and increased freight rates. Co. now sees EBITDA of between EUR 3.2-4.2bln (prev. EUR 2-3bln), according to Reuters.
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END
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN/PHILIPPINES
War fears are escalating all across the globe
(zerohedge)
The Japanese-Philippine Military Logistics Pact Raises The Risk Of War With China
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
It’s no secret that the US is preparing to “Pivot (back) to Asia” in order to more muscularly contain China, but few have paid attention to the form in which this is expected to take in the coming future. Instead of the US doing so on its own or through the previously assembled Quad of itself, Australia, India, and Japan, it’s increasingly relying on the Squad. This framework swaps India out for the Philippines, and its latest relevant development was the clinching of a Japanese-Philippine military logistics pact.
That agreement follows April’s first-ever trilateral US-Japanese-Philippine summit, which tightened the US’ containment noose around China, and came approximately nine months after those three’s National Security Advisors met for the first time ever in June 2023. In practice, Japan will likely ramp up its military exercises with the Philippines and explore more arms deals, with those two possibly also roping Taiwan into their activities to an uncertain extent in the future given that it’s roughly equidistant between them.
This will increase the chances of a conflict by miscalculation since China has already recently shown that it has the political will to respond to violations of the maritime territory that it claims as its own as proven by its latest low-intensify clashes with the Philippines. Even though the US has mutual defense obligations to the Philippines and has recently reminded China of them, it’s been reluctant to meaningfully act on its commitments for de-escalation reasons, but that could easily change.
After all, the US would be pressured to respond if China clashes with both its Japanese and Philippine allies in the event that they jointly violate the maritime territory that Beijing claims as its own, though they might of course abstain from such a provocation for the time being for whatever reason. In any case, it can’t be ruled out that something of the sort might eventually transpire, which could prompt a dangerous brinksmanship crisis that risks spiraling out of control if cooler heads on all sides don’t prevail.
Southeast Asia isn’t the only battleground in the Sino-US dimension of the New Cold War since Northeast Asia is rapidly shaping up to be a complementary one as well. North Korea recently accused the US, South Korea, and Japan of conspiring to create an “Asian NATO” after their latest trilateral drills. South Korea is a prime candidate for joining the Squad, which can also be described as AUKUS+, with Japan playing the senior partner role in that scenario exactly as it now plays with the Philippines.
That likely won’t happen anytime soon though since the South Koreans remain resentful of Japan’s World War II-era occupation that Tokyo hasn’t ever taken full responsibility for in their view. Trilateral drills under America’s aegis are one thing, but entering into a military-logistics pact with their former colonizer is an altogether different matter, especially if it leads to the latter gaining the upper hand. Nevertheless, South Korea is expected to scale up its role in AUKUS+, with Japan as its top Asian partner.
The grand strategic trend is that the US is forming two Asian trilaterals with itself and Japan that are centered on the Philippines in Southeast Asia and South Korea in Northeast Asia.
Australia’s role is largely symbolic for the time being, and these two trilaterals haven’t yet merged into a multilateral defense network along the lines of NATO, but the writing is on the wall.
It’s unclear how China will respond to these moves, but there’s no doubt that they make the New Cold War much more dangerous.
end
3 CHINA
CHINA/BELARUS/POLAND
Now China is doing military drills near the Polish and Ukrainian borders. We are living in very dangerous time
(zerohedge)
China Conducts Military Drills Near Polish & Ukrainian Borders
TUESDAY, JUL 09, 2024 – 08:40 PM
China and Belarus kicked off ultra-rare joint military drills near the Polish border inside Belarusian territory on Monday. It is unprecedented given Chinese troops are now deployed so close to a raging war zone in Eastern Europe.
The Belarusian armed forces pointed specifically to “Ukrainian provocation” as a key reason to hold the drills. Vladimir Kupriyanyuk, the deputy head of the general staff of the military, said the exercises are a response to the “West’s aggressive foreign policy towards Belarus” and to “Ukrainian provocation.”
Alarmingly, the maneuvers dubbed ‘Eagle Assault’ are not just a single day or two-day drill, but are slated to last eleven days, until July 19. The drills are being staged near the city of Brest on the Belarus-Poland border, and which is some 40 miles from the Belarusian border with Ukraine to the south.
“As part of the anti-terrorist exercises, the military personnel of both countries will work out the issues of night landing, overcoming water obstacles, and conducting operations in [urban settings],” the Belarusian defense ministry announced on Telegram.
The statement called out NATO’s growing involvement in Ukraine specifically: “The NATO grouping on the border with Belarus is growing rapidly, which leads to an increase in tension in the region,” stated a follow-up post. It additionally warned of “harsh reaction” should any external forces “cross Belarusian borders.”
Poland’s Defense Ministry responded by saying that a big focus of the NATO summit in Washington this week will be addressing the “hybrid war ongoing on the Poland-Belarus border, as well as on the Latvian, Lithuanian and Estonian borders.”
All of this is also happening while Russia has stationed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, which it calls a ‘Union State’ based on their close defensive partnership (and historic treaty) and ongoing cooperation regarding Ukraine.
As for China’s explanation, its defense ministry said Sunday the drills are primarily ‘anti-terrorism’ in nature, to include “hostage rescue operations and counter-terrorism missions.”
Meanwhile China is conducting military drills on the Polish border in a staunch show of support to Belarus. Are you watching NATO?
0:55
·
514.3K Views
“The training aims to enhance the training levels and coordination capabilities of the participating troops, as well as deepen practical cooperation between the armies of the two countries,” it added.
At this point the potential for a true global war centered in Ukraine is becoming easier to imagine, given PLA troops are now in the region, holding drills with the ‘pro-Russian’ side.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
end
EUROPE/RUSSIA/SAUDI ARABIA
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/USA
Is there anything that Biden did was right?
Biden’s Costliest Publicity Stunt To Be Dismantled Permanently
TUESDAY, JUL 09, 2024 – 07:20 PM
The Pentagon’s Gaza humanitarian pier project, which has been troubled from day one and spent more time out of commission than it’s actually been in operation, will soon be scrapped altogether, the Associated Press reports Tuesday.
The report says this is the ‘final blow’ for the pier after rough seas left it needing constant pauses for repairs: “The pier built by the U.S. military to bring humanitarian aid to Gaza will be reinstalled Wednesday to be used for several days, but then the plan is to pull it out permanently, several U.S. officials said.”
Thus it looks like it will not longer be there by the end of this month. “The officials said the goal is to clear whatever aid has piled up in Cyprus and on the floating dock offshore and get it to the secure area on the beach in Gaza,” the report adds, and notes that’s when the army will begin the final dismantle.
The pier had allowed for the delivery of nearly 20 million pounds of food to the starving Palestinian population in the Gaza Strip, but persistent high and choppy seas caused many lengthy stoppages. At one point last month large pieces of the pier actually broke off and washed up north on an Israel beach, with US vessels also getting stuck attempting to retrieve the pieces.
Part of the Pentagon rationale for dismantling the whole thing is that the weather is only set to get worse, and that the Biden-ordered initiative was to be temporary to begin with. For a brief timeline and partial review of recent problems:
- May 25: pier was damaged by seas and high winds
- Removed for repairs
- June 7: finally reconnected after a couple weeks
- June 14: inclement weather leads to pier removal again
- Days later it is put back
- June 28: heavy seas result in removal again
- Out of commission again for nearly a couple of weeks
First announced as a White House aim in March during President Biden’s State of the Union address, the pier required hundreds of millions of dollars and the work of some 1,000 service members to plan, assemble and operate.
The pier will go down as one of history’s costliest publicity stunts. The impetus for the pier was mounting political pressure on Biden — particularly from his own party — as Israel’s response to the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion killed tens of thousands, displaced more than a million, and caused a territory-wide food and medical-supply crisis. But critics also pointed out there are land routes which can be used to get aid into Gaza.
U.S. Army’s $320 million Gaza pier before it broke into pieces. The US will “temporarily” remove the pier off because of “expected high seas”, CENTOM says.
·
35.3K Views
Biden’s pier announcement came a week after the Michigan primary, in which 13% of Democrats — more than 100,000 people — voted “uncommitted” as a means of condemning Biden’s performance on Gaza, among other issues.
END
ISRAEL /HAMAS
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
a must read…
Nasrallah exhausted, desperate: Hezbollah’s options after nine months of war – opinion
Khamenei and Nasrallah were embarrassed by Sinwar’s surprise attack on Oct. 7, and the Hezbollah joined out of a lack of choice.
By PROF. AMATSIA BARAMJULY 10, 2024 09:16Updated: JULY 10, 2024 14:50
On June 19, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah threatened that if Israel starts an all-out war against it, Hezbollah will conquer the Galilee, flatten the rest of Israel, and attack Cyprus. On June 29, Iran threatened that if Israel escalates the situation, “a war of extermination will begin.”
These threats do not indicate self-confidence but rather hysteria. Even nine months after the start of the war, Tehran still estimates that in an all-out war, Israel will deal a fatal blow to Hezbollah, its most important ally. But no less important than that, in several months, there has been a dramatic change in Iran’s position towards the war, and to understand where Iran and Hezbollah stand today, it is necessary to return to the beginning.
The massacre on October 7 was initiated by Yahya Sinwar without coordination with Beirut and Tehran. Khamenei and Nasrallah financed, trained, and armed Hamas, but that morning, they were as surprised as Israel. Sinwar decided to attack without coordination because he knew they would forbid him. First, because Israel was still too firm, and it could eliminate Hamas and Hezbollah. Second, as long as Israel did not attack the Iranian nuclear facilities, Tehran was not eager to endanger Hezbollah.
Sinwar nevertheless ordered the attack based on the assumption that the promise of public support his men received in Beirut in March 2023 would force Nasrallah to enter the conflict. Khamenei and Nasrallah were embarrassed, and the latter joined out of lack of choice.
Tehran praised the middle path chosen by Nasrallah: aid to Hamas by attacking Israeli forces and driving Israeli civilians out of their homes in the upper Galilee, but without getting involved in an all-out war. While in his speeches, Nasrallah pledged to be engaged in attacks on Israel as long as the war in Gaza continues, Hezbollah’s restraint has raised criticism in the Muslim world of Iran and Hezbollah and made the whole event extremely embarrassing.
That is why Tehran made repeated desperate requests from the world to pressure the United States to force an end to the war.
Nasrallah longs for ceasefire agreement
In recent months, Tehran has no longer demanded this. Instead, Iran proudly notes the contribution of Hezbollah and the Houthis to the depletion of Israel, and I understand that they want the continuation of the war. They believe that Israel is losing the support of the West, that the IDF is exhausted, that Israeli society is crumbling, the port of Eilat is paralyzed, and the economy is crashing.
On the other hand, for Nasrallah, every additional day of fighting is a tremendous burden. He longs for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza, even if Israel alone announces the end of the massive war and stays in Gaza. But Iran will try to force him to continue.
If there is a general ceasefire agreement, Nasrallah will comply. There is even a chance that he will agree to retreat 15 kilometers and possibly to the Litani River to avoid a war.
This, however, could only materialize if a joint Israeli-American position is reached. Israel would announce that if Hezbollah does not withdraw, it will start an all-out war, and the United States will undertake to support it with weapons, intelligence, and support in the Security Council. Israel will have to concentrate very large forces in the North to convince Nasrallah of the sincerity of its intentions.
If Nasrallah and Tehran are convinced, he will likely withdraw on the assumption that his people will be able to infiltrate back as soon as possible, just as they did in 2006. Therefore, Israel and the United States must reach an early agreement allowing Israel to be the executor of Security Council Resolution 1701.
Displaced Israeli civilians will be allowed to return to the North, this time with large numbers of IDF troops permanently on the border. But every Israeli prime minister will be personally and legally responsible for preventing Hezbollah from returning to the border, even if this leads to war. Only in this way will the feeling of security in the North be renewed.
The article’s author, Amatzia Baram, is Professor Emeritus at the University of Haifa.
END
IDF engages Hamas, PIJ terrorists operating in Gaza City UNRWA HQ
The IDF noted that after having opened an evacuation route for civilians, forces raided the building, killed terrorists in close-quarter combat, and arrested additional terrorists.
By YAEL HALFONJULY 10, 2024 10:00Updated: JULY 10, 2024 10:32
After Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists embedded themselves in Gaza City’s UNRWA headquarters, troops of the IDF’s 99th Division engaged and eliminated terrorists operating on the premises in close-quarters combat and arrested others, the military said on Wednesday.
The IDF noted that the operation took place after it had opened an evacuation route for civilians.
Earlier this week, the military said it had begun operating in the UNRWA facility in a joint operation with the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), following intelligence information regarding the use of the area by Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the existence of terror infrastructure in the area, among which were detention and investigation rooms.
IDF troops operate in Shejaia
In Shejaia, troops of the 98th Division eliminated dozens of terrorists and destroyed tunnel routes.
In addition, Paratroopers detected terrorists observing the forces in the area. The building they operated in was subsequently struck by both troops on the ground and by an airstrike, the military added.
The military added that in Rafah, troops of the 162nd Division killed several terrorists, found weapons, and demolished underground terror infrastructure.
In central Gaza, an Israel Air Force aircraft struck and eliminated Hamas terrorists, among whom were some who partook in tunnel and anti-tank missile units.
Since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war, terror groups in Gaza have utilized UN facilities, such as schools, shelters, and warehouses throughout Gaza, hiding in them and in tunnels in their vicinity.
Seth J. Frantzman contributed to this article.
END
Nir, Noa Baranes named as civilians killed in Golan Heights rocket barrage
The two were 46 years old and left behind three children.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFJULY 10, 2024 11:40Updated: JULY 10, 2024 14:50
Noa and Nir Baranes were named as the couple killed during Tuesday’s Hezbollah rocket barrage toward the Golan Heights, Israeli media reported on Wednesday.
The two were 46 years old and left behind three children.
Regional council mourns the loss
The Golan Regional Council, where the couple lived and where Kibbutz Ortal is situated, released a statement that read, “A heavy burden fell on Kibbutz Ortal. Noa and Nir Barnes, members of the kibbutz, were killed by a direct hit to their vehicle—Noa and Nir, 46 years old, [were] central and beloved members of Ortal.
“They came to Ortal in 2012. Nir managed the poultry branch and, before that, the tourism and culture branch. Noa was the secretary of the plantation branch. The couple has three children, ages 13, 16 and 18,” the statement concluded.
The two were killed by a direct hit to their vehicle following a heavy rocket barrage fired by Hezbollah at the Golan Heights.
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA//F 16.s
stupid move! and extremely risky!
(zerohedge)
F-16 Fighter Jets Now On Their Way To Ukraine, White House Says
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 12:05 PM
American-made F-16 fighters jets are currently on their way to Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Wednesday during a NATO public forum of the alliance’s annual summit being hosted in Washington D.C. President Biden confirmed alongside European allies that “The transfer process for these F-16s is now under way.”
The program has been one year in the making, which has included training Ukrainian pilots at sites on US soil and in Europe. “Those jets will be flying in the skies of Ukraine this summer, to make sure that Ukraine can continue to effectively defend itself against the Russian aggression,” Blinken said further.
Additionally a joint statement from partner countries in the program, Denmark and The Netherlands, said specifics and details are being withheld for “operational security.”
“The first of more than 60 American-made F-16 jet fighters are on their way to Ukraine and will be flying later this summer,” the allies said.
It was only in May that the first batch of pilots graduated from a US training program. Earlier reports disclosed that they are being trained at Air Forces bases in San Antonio, TX – and in Arizona.
The announcement which comes on the second day of the NATO summit strongly signals the alliance is digging its heels in and looking for a fight.
Monday saw one of the biggest Russian aerial attacks on Ukraine in months. The assault involved at least 40 missiles and Russia has been widely accused of attacking Kiev’s largest children’s hospital. Monday’s strikes killed dozens and injured more than 170 across the country.
The Kremlin has claimed, however, that it was a Ukrainian anti-air missile which fell on the hospital, and highlighted that it’s being used as a “provocation” close in time to world leaders gathering for the NATO summit.
As for the F-16s, Russia has repeatedly vowed that it will not only shoot them out of the skies, but might attack any external base near Ukraine’s borders hosting them.
For example, in March President Putin vowed while visiting a pilot training base, “We will destroy their warplanes just as we destroy their tanks, armored vehicles and other equipment, including multiple rocket launchers.”
A recent slip-up by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg…
Significantly, Putin had upped the ante given he made clear that even bases in Western countries could be targeted if Ukraine flies sorties from them. “Of course, if they are used from airfields of third countries, they become a legitimate target for us, wherever they are located,” he had said.
Meanwhile, Ukraine plans to base at least some of the jets at allied bases outside its territory, on fears that the F-16s will be the first assets targeted by superior Russian aerial forces. Russia has effectively controlled the skies throughout the whole course of the conflict, and Kiev has a steep uphill battle if its hopes to regain control no matter how many Western-supplied jets it possesses.
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, July 1-July 8, 2024
Athletes: US (2), Guyana, Argen., France, Croatia (3), Spain, Italy (4), Egypt, Bangladesh, Aus., NZ; “vaxxidents”: US (10), Mexico, Brazil, Argen., UK, France, Bel., Germany, Italy (8), Turkey; more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERJUL 10 |
Note: Click on the countries links for this week’s compilations of those who “died suddenly” (the individual Substacks are too long to email).
United States
Canada
Mexico, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guyana, Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina
Mexico:
Paraguay:
News from Underground by Mark Crispin Miller is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Argentina:
United Kingdom and Ireland
France, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Croatia and Spain
Belgium:
Italy
Egypt, Ghana, Nigeria, Kenya, S. Africa, Israel, Turkey and Russia
Turkey:
India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Singapore, China, S. Korea, Japan, Philippines, Australia and New Zealand
India:
N
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
The Biden administration (Obama, Biden, Kamala Harris, Mayorkas et al.) is actively selling children at the border into sex slavery, knowingly! Using our tax dollars and they know this and won’t stop
85 to 90,000 children at the border at currently missing! Rogan and Phil debated the practice of these children coming unaccompanied with addresses written on their bodies & then sent to the pimp
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 10 |
Using US tax money. No one verifies who the address belongs too…
This is the Obama and Biden program. These people have done things not even seen in hell! Our US tax dollars to sell children into sex slavery, at the border. Children handed over to the pimp, trafficker.
Alexander MAGA COVID News; a PCR manufactured COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
https://x.com/i/status/1810311078531768340
If you wish to give a donation to help, you can at:
Zelle:
end
‘Mob of Nearly 100 Looters Ransacks Gas Station, Store Owner Says Police Took Hours to Respond — ‘Back to Square One”; A mob of around 80 to 100 looters descended upon a gas station convenience store
near the Oakland International Airport, leaving a trail of destruction in their wake. The store, owned by Sam Mardaie, fell victim to the violent looters who smashed their way into the establishment
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 10 |
Now we know who they are, I mean, we are talking about fecal feral banal animals, beasts….so how do we deal with them? What do we do? Is it ok to have armed guards? can you use force here? see this is the ‘law and order’ 45 must come back and install and insist and actually ensure it is done…how harsh can you be in response? One can use deadly force if life is imminently threatened…no doubt, but can one use deadly force here? I do not know, if not then it is not, one cannot, but if one could, why can’t store owners put down these people…make an example…a few times…it will stop! deadly force. Can it be used here? Can someone enlighten us please. Not speculation, I mean what are the particulars that govern this type of responding?
EVOL NEWS
.
LATEST NEWS:
SLAY NEWS
| he latest reports from Slay News |
| 2000 Doctors & Scientists Demand ‘Immediate’ Ban of Covid ShotsA whopping 2000 plus doctors, scientists, and academics have signed a declaration demanding governments around the world order an “immediate” ban on Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE |
| Canadians Begin Hiring ‘Guardian Angels’ to Protect Hospital Patients from EuthanasiaCanadians are now taking the unprecedented steps of hiring people to protect vulnerable hospital patients from being euthanized by government doctors.READ MORE |
| Biden’s Doctor Claims Parkinson’s Specialist Visited White House at Least 9 Times as Part of Annual ExamsDemocrat President Joe Biden’s physician has confirmed that a neurologist who specializes in Parkinson’s disease has been visiting the White House.READ MORE |
| Elon Musk Responds as Stephen King Calls for Biden to Step AsideLeftist author Stephen King has become the latest high-profile Democrat celebrity to call for President Joe Biden to step down.READ MORE |
| AOC Backs Biden’s Re-Election Bid: ‘The Matter Is Closed’Radical Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has declared that “the matter is closed” regarding President Joe Biden’s fitness for office after she has “spoken with him.”READ MORE |
| Judge Cannon Refuses to Dismiss Charges in Trump’s Classified Documents CaseU.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon has denied a request to dismiss charges against Walt Nauta in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s classified documents case against President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Comer Discovers White House Doctor Involved in Biden’s Family Business Dealings, Demands Testimony before CongressHouse Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) and his team of congressional investigators have uncovered evidence that White House Physician Kevin O’Connor is involved in the business dealings of Democrat President Joe Biden’s family.READ MORE |
| MSNBC Pundit Warns of ‘High-Level Resignations’ around Biden after Terrible WeekMSNBC pundit Mark Leibovich has warned Democrats of a looming mass exodus from President Joe Biden’s staff.READ MORE |
| Hunter Biden’s Influence Grows as Father Alienates Democrat AlliesDemocrat President Joe Biden is reportedly cutting out his Democrat allies as he increasingly leans on counsel from the “convicted felon” son Hunter.READ MORE |
| Biden Admin Takes Credit for Drop in Gas Prices Mandated by CongressDemocrat President Joe Biden’s Department of Energy (DOE) has falsely claimed responsibility for a reduction in gas prices.READ MORE |
| Anti-Trump ‘The View’ Co-Host Sunny Hostin Admits Kamala Harris Wouldn’t Win in NovemberWhile contemplating the prospect of President Joe Biden being replaced on the Democrats’ 2024 ticket, Sunny Hostin told her fellow co-hosts on “The View” that VP Kamala Harris wouldn’t be able to win the November election.READ MORE |
| Biden Promises ‘Morning Joe’ He’s Staying in the Race: ‘I Am Not Going Anywhere’Democrat President Joe Biden called into his favorite “news” show on MSNBC and promised that he is staying in the race for re-election.READ MORE |
| Biden Admin Comes Out Against Bill to Stop Illegal Aliens Voting in U.S ElectionsDemocrat President Joe Biden’s administration has just issued a statement to directly oppose a bill that seeks to stop illegal aliens from voting in American elections.READ MORE |
The latest reports from Slay News
NEWS ADDICTS
| Covid-Vaccinated Kids 4,423% More Likely to Die Than ‘Purebloods’Official government data has revealed the shocking risk that children are being placed under when they are given Covid mRNA “vaccines.”READ THE FULL REPORT |
| KJP ERUPTS When Reporters Press Her on Neurologist Visits to President Joe BidenWhite House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was pressed on Monday by reporters demanding specific information on President Joe Biden’s medical records after a serious of reports showed a neurologist had visited him multiple times during his presidency.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| White House Comes Out In Opposition of SAVE Act Stopping Illegal Aliens from Voting in U.S. ElectionsThe White House has issued a statement in strong opposition to the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility Act (SAVE Act), which would ensure that illegal aliens do not vote in U.S. elections.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas Announces Amnesty for Over 4,000 Yemeni Nationals to Stay and Hold American JobsPresident Joe Biden’s Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has extended and reclassified a “temporary” amnesty for 4,000 Yemeni nationals residing in the United States, preventing their deportation and allowing them to work legally in America.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| WATCH: Jill Biden Lashes Out at Reporter Asking About Calls for Her Husband to Drop Out of the 2024 RaceOn Monday, First Lady Jill Biden was out campaigning while her husband remained at home.READ THE FULL REPORT |
A bombshell new study has revealed that people “vaccinated” with two or more doses of Covid mRNA shots have lost a stomach-churning 30 years from their life expectancy.
READ THE FULL REPORT
Joe Biden Threatens to Block Bill Requiring Proof of U.S. Citizenship to Vote
President Joe Biden appears committed to blocking the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act, which would mandate proof of American citizenship for voter registration in federal elections. The SAVE Act, introduced by Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX) and co-sponsored by over 100 House Republicans, proposes that state election officials must ensure voter registration applicants provide proof of American citizenship before being …
READ THE FULL REPORT
Idaho Governor Enacts Landmark ‘ONLY CITIZENS WILL VOTE Act’ to Ensure Only U.S. Citizens Can Vote in State Elections
Idaho Governor Brad Little (R-ID) and Secretary of State Phil McGrane announced Idaho’s landmark executive order ensuring only U.S. citizens can vote in state elections, a first for any state in the nation. Named the ‘ONLY CITIZENS WILL VOTE Act,’ this measure is part of a wider push to maintain election integrity and increase voter confidence amid growing concerns over …
READ THE FULL REPORT
Joe Biden Plans to Keep Congressional Black Caucus Support With Virtual Meeting
President Biden met with members of the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) on Monday night in a virtual call aimed at solidifying his support base. According to reports, he expressed gratitude for their reliable support and promised a mutual sense of loyalty. “You’ve had my back, and I’ll continue to have yours,” Biden told the CBC members on the call, two …
READ THE FULL REPORT
British Actress Minnie Driver: ‘How Could Americans Be So Stupid to Vote for a Felon — Trump Deserves to Be in Prison’
British Hollywood actress Minnie Driver has sparked controversy by insulting Trump supporters, suggesting they “really quite like a bit of a racist attitude” in their chosen candidate.
READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BOLIVIA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0823 UP .00009
USA/ YEN 161.49 UP 0.139 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2810 UP .0023
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3636 UP .0003 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.01 PTS OR 0.68%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 51.56 PTS OR 0.29%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.21%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 51.56 PTS OR 0.29 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.01 PTS OR 0.68%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .21%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 251.82 PTS OR 0.61%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2374.70
silver:$30.98
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 104.74 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.115% DOWN 6 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.089% UP 1 AND 5/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.297 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.859 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.532 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0823 UP 0.0009 OR 9 basis points
USA/Japan: 161.63 UP 0.302 OR YEN IS DOWN 30 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.173 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0014 OR 14 BASIS pts to 1.3618
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2762 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2915)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.88 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.089…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.286% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.481 DOWN 1 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.614 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2376.10
SILVER AT 11;30: 30.84
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 53.70 PTS OR 0.66%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 171.03 PTS OR 0.94%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 64,89 PTS OR 0.86 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 172.80 OR 1.59%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 441.93 PTS OR 1.30% PTS
WTI Oil price 81.59 12EST/
Brent Oil: 84.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88,99 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 29/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.532 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.173 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0825 UP 0.0011 OR 11 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2842 UP 0.0054 OR 54 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.158 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.087
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 161.77 UP 440 YEN DOWN 44 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3632 DOWN 0009 //CDN dollar UP 9 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.32
Brent OIL: 85.30
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.282
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.471%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1/2 PTS AT 4.630
USA dollar index: 104.74 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.85 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.85 DOWN 2 AND 32/100 roubles
GOLD 2,371.10 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.80 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 429.23 PTS OR 1.09%
NASDAQ UP 222.82 PTS OR 1.09 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.81 UP 0.30 PTS OR 2.42%
GLD: $219.35 UP 0.79 OR 0.36%
SLV/ $28.16 UP 0.04 OR 0.12%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Panic-Bid Ahead Of CPI As Biden’s Nomination Odds Re-Plunge
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Another day, another 0-DTE dominated melt-up…
NVDA and TSLA dominating the options trading… and all 0-DTE!
Source: Bloomberg
Which levitated MAG7 stocks for the 7th straight day (10 of last 11 days)…
Source: Bloomberg
And that is all that is needed to lift the Nasdaq and S&P (and everything else by association). Late in the day, everything just went vertical… because!!
The S&P 500 is now almost 15% above its 200DMA – quite a stretch…
Source: Bloomberg
…ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print event risk, realized vol is near record lows (10d with a 5 handle) and very short-dated vol (across the CPI print) is near 16…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations continue to rise as Powell said nothing hawkish… which is therefore dovish?
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields are down very modestly on the day 1-2bps with a very modest long-end outperformance…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar index slipped back to Monday’s lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold rallied early on but gave some back in the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices surged back above $82.50 (WTI) after the official inventory data…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin rallied back above its 200DMA 58,818 but was slammed back down again…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, President Biden’s odds of being the Democratic Party nominee plunged again today…
Source: Bloomberg
…do traders know something about tomorrow’s solo press conference gauntlet?
Come On England!!!! See you Tuesday, BD.
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
CALIFORNIA
Newsom’s California: Flash Mob Robs, Ransacks Bay Area Mini-Mart, Causing $100,000 In Damage
TUESDAY, JUL 09, 2024 – 09:20 PM
A flash mob ransacked a mini-mart near the San Francisco Bay Oakland International Airport in Oakland, California this week, robbing and destroying the store.
In yet another dystopian scene of what California has become, the group was captured on surveillance video “tearing apart the store”, according to Fox News, who obtained footage of the looting.
The group rummaged through the refrigerated section and shelves, smashing items and stuffing shopping baskets with stolen goods.
The owner of the store told Fox News that the group caused about $100,000 in damage and that, in the process, they threatened two employees.
He said it took “nine hours” for police to respond to the incident, telling Fox News: “This is the hardest thing you could ever go through … especially if you’ve been put in sweat and tears day in and day out.”
Oakland Police offered up a different story, telling Fox officers responded within 90 minutes of the incident, which took place at 4AM.
The owner estimated that approximately 70 individuals connected to a nearby illegal sideshow gathering forced their way into the store, which was operating with window-only service at the time.
He concluded: “They got away with it. They were here for 40 minutes. You could tear a whole city down in 40 minutes. Every time I think about it, the more it hurts.”
END
RESTAURANTS
Restaurant Stocks Slide As Wall Street Sours On Consumer
TUESDAY, JUL 09, 2024 – 06:00 PM
The middle class is struggling under the burden of elevated inflation and high interest rates, and Wall Street analysts are increasingly worried about a slowdown in consumer spending. Warning signs are only getting louder by the week.
We’ve detailed for months about the onset of a consumer slowdown:
- Goldman Tells Top Clients To Start “Shorting The Middle-Income Consumer”
- Goldman’s Commentary On Consumer Health Is An Ominous One
- “Did Something Change?”: Goldman Trading Desk Warns Hedge Funds Are Suddenly Dumping Consumer Stocks
Earlier today, shares of consumer products company Helen of Troy crashed after missing earnings expectations and slashed its full-year outlook on “softer consumer demand” and “shifts in consumer spending.”
Fears of a slowdown also sparked selling in S&P 1500 Restaurants Index (S15REST) in late afternoon trading, down nearly 2%, marking its lowest intraday level since November 1. This decline negatively diverges S&P 500, which is being driven higher and higher by Mag7 and AI stocks.
This won’t end well…
Here is a detailed list from Bloomberg featuring industry insights from Wall Street analysts on how fears of a consumer slowdown are pressuring restaurant stocks lower:
Piper Sandler, Brian Mullan
- June traffic trends for casual dining, family dining, fine dining, and quick service establishments failed to show “any real evidence of noteworthy improvement” from “uninspiring” May, writes Mullan, who in his research note references data from Placer.ai, Blackbox, and Technomic
- Says traffic in the quick service — or fast food — space has seemingly “gotten a bit worse” in 2Q vs 1Q
Gordon Haskett, Jeffrey Farmer
- Cut price target on fast-food giant McDonald’s, writing that the initial customer response to the company’s $5 meal deal has been “underwhelming”
Truist Securities, Jake Bartlett
- Cut price targets for McDonald’s and Burger King owner Restaurant Brands International, saying their promotions don’t appear to be boosting sales
KeyBanc, Eric Gonzalez
- Writes that investor sentiment is “poor” on global fast food names and says “2Q will likely be one to forget”
- “We believe several brands within our coverage universe are at risk of missing consensus same-store sales forecasts for the 2Q,” including McDonald’s, Burger King, Wendy’s, Starbucks, KFC U.S. (owned by Yum! Brands), Papa Johns, and Dine Brands’ Applebee’s
Baird, David Tarantino
- “Our most recent weekly private chain survey revealed overall comps below the averages for June/2Q,” he writes
- The data may include some “July 4 calendar noise,” but Tarantino says the trend is “worth monitoring closely in upcoming weeks given our continued concerns about the economy and the possibility that some newer headwinds on consumer confidence have emerged amid an increasingly uncertain political backdrop”
As tighter monetary policy comes into play, with prior interest rate hikes filtering into the real economy in lags, consumer wallets will continue to tighten throughout the year. This will force consumers to make tough choices and reduce discretionary spending, such as dining out.
END
Housing Market Cracks: Record Number Of Listed Homes Have Price Drops
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 06:55 AM
For the past two years it seemed that the Fed’s rate hiking cycle has been flipped on its head and that Erdoganomics, as batshit insane as it is, was the rule of the land: instead of home prices dropping, as one would expect under tighter financial conditions, home prices kept rising and rising, because in a world where the marginal home buyer has been limited to an extremely narrow group of 1%ers, who needs mortgages?
But tighten long enough, and even the top wealth tiers begin to fray, and that’s precisely what we are now seeing in the US housing market, which – since it is the biggest asset of the US middle class, unlike the stock market which is the playground of the top 1% – is also the most tangible leading indicator for the broader economy. We saw that in the latest Case Shiller numbers where the Composite 20 city index posted its first YoY decline since early 2023…
…. and we are also now seeing it in the latest Redfin home price data, where among other things, we find that as average home sale prices hit new all time highs, the number of actual transactions has collapsed while the number of new listed homes is surging and last but not least, the number of price drops reported – which is what those who need the extract the money from their real estate yet can no longer afford to live in the mark-to-myth world created by record wide bid/ask spreads, just jumped to the highest on record.
Here are the details:
The median sale price hit $397,954, the highest on record, and a 4.9% YoY increase, the biggest since March.
The median asking price hit $409,975, which at a 6.1% increase YoY, was the biggest increase since October 2022
Yet asking prices are finally plateauing, because at $2,749, the number of remaining potential buyers who can afford to pay almost double the average monthly payment from 2021 can be counted on one hand.
And with sellers keeping prices artificially high (after all, most of them don’t really need the money right now, and are just dangling asks for desperate buyers to lift) the actual number of transactions has collapsed, as the number of price indescriminate buyers has cratered, leading to widespread market paralysis.
With the market paralyzed, it’s no secret why the number of active listings of homes for sale has soared 18% year over year as inventory just keeps piling up…
… resulting in 3.3 months of supply which is a record for this time of the year.
The inventory glut also means that it takes longer and longer to sell the median home…
… into a market where demand is plunging 17% YoY.
Yet sellers are starting to get impatient, and after a record 55% of homes sold above listing price in 2022, the number has since tumbled to just 32.3%.
And perhaps the most important data point: while in the past sellers had the luxury of just waiting out the lack of buyers, the first true crack in the market has finally appeared because sellers are finally starting to chase bids (which are not rising) and the number of listing that had price drops surged to 6.9%, the highest on record.
That means that unless the Fed cuts rates significantly in the next few months, the housing market is on the verge of creating its own reflexive and self-reinforcing liquidation spiral, as more sellers cut prices, forcing even more sellers to cut prices until suddenly the specter of a full-blown housing crash returns… just in time for Trump’s presidency.
end
Still In The “First Or Second Innings” Of CRE Tower Storm
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 03:25 PM
While politics and geopolitics dominate the headlines—whether it’s Joe Bien’s mumbling and stumbling or the risks of World War III in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, or the South China Sea—many seem to overlook the ongoing commercial real estate crash in the US. This CRE downturn is set to worsen as remote and hybrid work models drastically reduce demand for traditional office towers.
Bloomberg cited data from the Mortgage Bankers Association, reminding us that banks will face a $1 trillion maturity wall of CRE loans at the end of this year. This only means more bank failures are ahead because of the bad property debt held on balance sheets.
“Compared with the Savings & Loans crisis and 2008, we’re still in the first or second innings” when it comes to distressed CRE assets, said Rebel Cole, a finance professor at Florida Atlantic University who advises Oaktree Capital Management, adding, “There’s a tsunami coming and the waters are pulling out from the beach.”
In a recent note, John Brady, global head of real estate at Oaktree, explained, “We could be on the precipice of one of the most significant real estate distressed investment cycles of the last 40 years.”
Brady said that “unloved” CRE space will present opportunities for bottom fishing: “Few asset classes are as unloved as commercial real estate and thus we believe there are few better places to find exceptional bargains.”
Data from Preqin show private equity firms are building war chests as the CRE storm is expected to worsen, allowing them to bargain hunt. About 64% of the $400 billion of dry powder on the sidelines is intended for CRE investments across North America, the highest share in two decades.
The percentage of office CMBS loans that are 30+ days delinquent just hit a decade high.
Geographically, distressed office loans are piling up in the eastern half of the US.
Meanwhile, Pimco expects more regional bank failures due to bad property debt. Adding to this, a recent Oaktree report indicates the number of banks that could fail if CRE prices fell just 20% from peaks would exceed 2008.
Charles McGrath, an associate vice president at Preqin, pointed out that higher borrowing costs for longer indicate a decline in dry powder on the sidelines. He said there are signs of a “sharp decline in fundraising and transactions.”
The day of reckoning for banks nears as strategies like “extend and pretend” to delay recognizing losses on balance sheets are ending.
Goldman’s Vinay Viswanathan noted earlier this year…
Here’s a visualization of the upcoming maturity wall.
What’s clear is the CRE storm is far from over.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
NEWT GINGRICH
END
SWAMP NEWS
Next Event In Biden’s Dementia Decathlon: Solo Press Conference Thursday Could Seal His Fate
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 09:55 AM
As panicked Democrats continue wringing their hands over the general election perils associated with President Biden’s accelerating cognitive decline, Big Media has thus far spent the week largely focused on comments made in closed-door meeting on Capitol Hill, and the steady drip of Democratic House reps stepping out to publicly urge Biden to quit race.
Little attention has been paid to Biden’s next opportunity to confirm everyone’s worst judgements about his mental state. In a event that has the potential to inflict even more damage than his primetime, sit-down interview with George Stephanopolous last week, Biden will conduct a rare solo press conference on Thursday — facing a press corps that’s been re-programmed, switching from Biden-protection to Biden-scrutiny.
Hear me out: for Biden’s Press conference on Thursday, all major outlets should replace their usual reporter with their Chief Medical reporter to ask questions.
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Though Team Biden unleashed a major, multi-faceted Monday offensive aimed at removing doubts about whether the 81-year-old will stay in the race, his campaign is still teetering as it receives a steady stream of shoves from both inside and outside government. For example, on Tuesday alone:
- New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill became the eighth House Democrat to urge Biden to abandon his re-election campaign, saying, “I am asking that he declare that he won’t run for reelection and will help lead us through a process toward a new nominee.”
- Responding to a question thrown at him on a New York City street, ABC‘s Stephanopolous said “I don’t think he can serve four more years.” He later said he was wrong for “respond[ing] to a passerby.”
- Appearing on CNN, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet said, “Trump is on track…to win this election, and maybe win it by a landslide and take with him the Senate and the House.”
Depending on the extent to which the White House can rig it in the president’s favor, Thursday’s press conference could be a game-changer that takes the Democrats’ anti-Biden rebellion to a new level of intensity — one that, for example, sees the first Democratic senators come forward to publicly oppose Biden’s continuation in the race.
We’ve already witnessed many major leftist media figures — from Stephanopoulos to Jake Tapper to Joe Scarborough — suddenly willing to speak frankly about Biden’s manifest mental decline. With Biden on a precipice, Thursday’s press conference could be a contest among reporters striving to cement their place in history by being the one to give Biden the decisive shove over the cliff.
The big question: To what extent will the White House be able to choreograph the whole affair? Belying their claims of being duped about Biden’s withering abilities, the White House press corps has hitherto aided and abetted sham press conferences in which Biden has been caught holding cheat sheets that not only tell him which reporters to call on, but even give him the full text of the question each reporter will ask.
ZeroHedge and a handful of other outlets tried their best to bring this scandalous deception to public notice, but mainstream media colluded in concealing it. Now, however, it’s a new ball game, and the White House can’t expect such tactics to go unreported this time around.
Indeed, the Biden campaign just came under fire over the weekend when urban-talk-radio hosts at two stations said the campaign gave them a pre-selected list of questions when Biden appeared on their shows with hopes of bolstering his sagging support among black Americans. One host was fired for going along with the scheme.
Biden was told to come out and give live press conferences and interviews and instead gave a prescripted interview to a radio station that resulted in getting a black woman fired and it’s somehow not national news everywhere.
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131.2K Views
Amid widespread demands for Biden to demonstrate his ability to manage unscripted conversations, the White House communications staff is between a rock and a hard place. Biden’s grown accustomed to stage-managed press conferences, and is likely to perform badly if he’s now forced to attempt a real one.
On the other hand, if the White House pre-selects reporters who’ve submitted questions in advance, it could be a scandal — the one that should have already erupted when we and others publicized the practice back in April 2023. Team Biden must also think twice about hosting a press conference that’s seen as as rushed or allowing too few questions.
There’s another facet that will elevate the difficulty level: time of day. While a time hasn’t yet been published, the White House last week said it will take place in the afternoon — and only after an earlier-afternoon meeting associated with this week’s NATO summit in Washington. According to White House sources, Biden is at his best between 10am and 4pm. “Outside of that time range…Biden is more likely to have verbal miscues and become fatigued,” reported Axios. It sounds like the press conference could take place on the cusp of his danger zone.
On top of all that, Biden’s embattled communication team has already demonstrated some jarring incompetence in regard to this critical press conference. Last week, Bloomberg reporter Justin Sink asked press secretary Karine Jean Pierre if it would be “a real, big-boy press conference,” apparently referring to a lengthy, robust solo session as opposed to shorter ones featuring both Biden and some other official.
Showing an unfathomable lack of appreciation for how it would be perceived, both Jean Pierre and John Kirby this week used the inside-joke “big boy press conference” label as they referred to Thursday’s critical event. Lacking context, Americans naturally took this as the failing president’s handlers describing his activities much as they would a toddler’s — as Jill Biden did after Joe’s historically-catastrophic debate with Trump:
So stand by for what will likely be the most-watched press conference of Biden’s term in office…a prospect that surely has his caretakers filled with dread…
Bonus Biden press-conference flashback:
Blinken’s face after Joe Biden calls Chinese President Xi a “dictator”
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9.1M Views
KING REPORT
| The King Report July 10, 2024 Issue 7280 | Independent View of the News |
| Powell Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Senate Banking Committee HighlightsRecent inflation data shows ‘modest’ progress to 2% goalEasing too soon, too much could harm inflation progressGDP growth appears to have moderated in first half of 2024Inflation is not the only risk we faceLabor market is strong but not overheatedMore good data on inflation would boost confidence on inflationEconomy continues to expand at a solid paceLabor market has returned to pre-pandemic conditionsMost recent labor data do send clear signal of coolingThe labor market appears to be fully back in balanceThe Fed continues to make decisions meeting-by-meetingIt’s not likely that the next Fed move will be a rate hikeThe Fed is avoiding giving rate timing signals; it depends on the dataCommercial real estate risks might last for yearsBelieves immigration is long-run neutral for inflation (see housing, Jerome!)In short run, immigration might have boosted inflation Senators Lament High Prices as Powell Touts Progress – BBG 10:29 ET Powell ducks the question about the impact of tariffs on prices if Trump is elected… “We do very far out of our way not to comment on campaign-type information.”… Senator Brown (D-OH) says Powell has an important role to make sure the economy works for everyone, not just for Wall Street… “Your concern should be developing capital rules that protect Americans’ money, not protect bank CEO stock portfolios.” @FrogNewsL (GOP) Senator Kennedy just asked Jerome about 75% of the jobs being created by the government in the last report… Jerome says that is sub optimal. ESUs rallied sharply during early Nikkei trading on Turnaround Tuesday buying and hope that Powell would issue dovish comments at the Senate Banking Committee Testimony. Powell was not dovish. ESUs and USUs tumbled when Powell did NOT issue dovish remarks. ESUs sank from a daily high of 5642.75 at 9:59 ET to 56230.00 at 10:23 ET. Thereafter, ESUs vacillated in a 12-handle range until the afternoon rally began near 13:00 ET. ESUs hit a new high of 5645.75 at 13:03 ET and then sank to 5631.00 at 13:25 ET. After a modest rebound, ESUs traded sideways until they broke down. After hitting 5629.50 at 14:32 ET, ESUs rebounded to 5635.25 at 14:46 ET. But there was no follow through buying. ESUs eased lower, to 5628.25 at 15:22 ET. The late manipulation was lame; ESUs only got to 5634.00 at 15:50 ET. ESUs then traded sideways into the NYSE close. Mag 7/Fangs were positive all session. When ‘they’ don’t know what to do or what do buy, ‘they’ buy Mag 7 and related trading sardines. Tesla (+5% high) and Nvidia (+3.6% high) led the Mag 7 rally. USUs went negative at the start of Nikkei trading and remained there. USUs hit a daily high of 118 30/32 at 23:04 ET and a daily low of 118 1/32 at 11:19 ET. Commodities declined modestly. The WSJ reports that German officials, to accommodate Biden’s nighttime troubles, arrange for an early evening meeting between Biden and German Chancellor Scholz to discuss Ukraine in June 22, but Biden didn’t show. The WSJ claims US Secretary of State Blinken arrived and said Joe went to bed. WSJ: How Biden’s Inner Circle Worked to Keep Signs of Aging Under Wraps Aides kept a tight rein on the president’s travel plans, news conferences, public appearances and meetings with donors while Biden’s stumbles became increasingly obvious (Pay wall) German officials aware of Biden’s fatigue at night, sought to accommodate the president by planning a June 2022 event with German Chancelor Olaf Scholz in the early evening… Biden didn’t show, surprising the chancellor and his aides… Instead, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived and announced that Biden had gone to bed… https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/joe-biden-age-public-election-campaign-343a47bf @JoelWeingart_: “At a fundraiser in New York around the time of the UN General Assembly last fall, Biden seemed at a loss trying to answer questions about the Middle East from people in a photo line. An aide whispered in Biden’s ear, the person said, and the president then answered”… During a fundraiser at the Four Seasons in New York in June 2023, Biden spoke for five to 10 minutes and then took a few questions, said attendees… At one point, Biden couldn’t recall the word for “veteran.”… @AndrewDesiderio: Wow — Sen. Patty Murray (D-Wash.), a member of Dem leadership & president pro tem, says Biden “must seriously consider the best way to preserve his incredible legacy and secure it for the future.” Adds: “we need to see a much more forceful and energetic candidate on the campaign trail in the very near future in order for him to convince voters he is up to the job.” https://x.com/AndrewDesiderio/status/1810465390671094133/photo/1 ‘Obama bros’ gang up on Biden as longstanding rumors of tension linger: ‘Hard to watch’ Three former Obama advisers’ criticism of Biden continues the reportedly strained state of relations between the two https://www.foxnews.com/politics/obama-bros-gang-up-biden-longstanding-rumors-tension-linger House Republicans @HouseGOP: “There is no longer any doubt that Joe Biden is unfit to be our Commander in Chief. The Biden White House, Far Left House Democrats, and the mainstream media are in complete disarray because they know this to be true and have been caught participating in one of the greatest media coverups in American history.” – @RepStefanik https://x.com/HouseGOP/status/1810680811277992344 Biden’s physician says neurologist visited White House as part of annual examinations President Biden did not see a neurologist outside his annual physicals, White House physician Kevin O’Connor said (The other 7 visits since last July were to examine WH staff?!?!) https://www.foxnews.com/politics/bidens-physician-says-neurologist-visited-white-house-part-annual-examinations Ex-WH physician & Rep @RonnyJacksonTX: Does NOT explain the visit(s) to the Residence Clinic. Believe me, the active duty people that work at the White House are not seen in that clinic. They are seen in the clinic in the Old Executive Office Building. TRY AGAIN DR. O’CONNOR!! @CollinRugg: The House Democratic Caucus meeting about Biden’s future as the candidate was a disaster according to @JakeSherman who reported it “felt like a funeral.” The group of Democrats were not able to come to a consensus. While leaving the event, a somber Rep. Steve Cohen said Democrats were not only not on the same page, but they’re not even in the same book. Brutal. https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1810689629324222908 @JakeSherman: The House Democratic Caucus meeting about President Joe Biden’s political standing is starting to empty out. One House Democrat supportive of Biden told me it “felt like a funeral.” There is definitely no consensus on Biden. Lots of talk about how difficult the situation is for Dems. Rep. Jahana Hayes (D-Conn.) said that putting Harris atop the ticket would be setting her up for failure. Rep. Mark Takano (D-Calif.) said he saw a poll recently that had Biden losing in his district. Biden won his district with 62% of the vote last time. @MacFarlaneNews: Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) exiting House Democratic meeting … repeatedly said: “We’re riding with Biden. We’re riding with Biden. We’re riding with Biden.” Fox: Rep. Jerry Nadler of New York, who reportedly called on President Biden to drop out, now says Biden is “the best candidate.” Axios: Biden rebels in Congress see their revolt crumbling The bloc of battleground House Democrats is one of the last firm pockets of a rapidly disintegrating movement on Capitol Hill to get Biden off the ticket. One shell-shocked lawmaker who was present at the meeting would offer only one word to characterize it: “Intense.” Another described the mood as “pretty much unanimous” that Biden has “got to step down,” adding, “There were actual tears from people, and not for Biden.”… One House Democrat who was in both meetings said: “Most of our caucus is still with him … meaning he’ll stay in. Which sucks for our country.”… a House Democrat who is deeply skeptical of Biden acknowledged to Axios that Democrats were “folding all over the place” and “becoming resigned to Biden holding all the cards here, and us having no real say in the matter.”… https://www.axios.com/2024/07/09/biden-house-democrats-withdraw-nominee @DC_Draino: Trump just launched a nuke against election fraudsters. Promises that in his 2nd term he will be locking up those committing election fraud. Says “Republicans must pass the Save Act, or go home and cry yourself to sleep.” Finished it with “DON’T DO IT! ZUCKERBUCKS, be careful!” https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1810686656347025851 @MicaSoellnerDC: One House Democrat tells me that there was a “significant amount of frustration” expressed by leadership about leaks during the rankers meeting this weekend. Leadership warned members against that and “new expectations were set.” Am told the room was unified in supporting whoever the nominee ends up being but no consensus on Biden. It looks like The Big Guy will remain as president and continue his campaign. This is great news for Trump and the GOP but bad news for the USA. @ggreenwald: Democrats slowly coming to terms with the fact that Biden is a full-scale narcissist who has shown throughout his adult life that the only thing he cares about is chasing power and titles, and there’s no way someone like that would give that up voluntarily, no matter the cost: This whole media narrative about what a “good and decent man” Joe Biden is has no basis in reality… @kayleighmcenany: “Many times when we had meetings in the Oval Office, Jill was there as well,” @SpeakerMcCarthy told me. “The First Lady was in some of your meetings about policy?” I asked. “Many times, Jill would come in,” he reiterated. Listen to the stories Speaker McCarthy shares with me. https://t.co/Cw2CtoXApU @charliekirk11: In 2022 Jill Biden made the Marine Corps Band compose a special song just for her official White House functions entitled “Fanfare for the First Lady.” If you think this Dr. Biden is going to allow her husband to let go of power willingly, think again. Why Biden Staffers Are Probably Hoping No One Saw This MSNBC Segment Dr. Tom Pitts, a neurologist, was interviewed by MSNBC’s Tom Llamas this morning, where he pretty much said that the president has the hallmark early symptoms of Parkinson’s Disease. Pitts is also a self-identified Democrat and voiced his frustration over the White House’s handling of Biden’s declining health, likening it to a Soviet-style cover-up… https://townhall.com/tipsheet/mattvespa/2024/07/09/parkinsons-disease-experts-opinion-on-biden-is-going-to-sit-well-with-the-white-house-n2641600 @townhallcom: DOOCY: Jill Biden has been seen in Oval Office meetings. Is she making decisions— KJP: No. DOOCY: —or is she just advising? KJP: The president is the President of the United States. He makes decision. DOOCY: What about Hunter Biden? KJP: I’m not going to get into that. https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1810754922847051979 WH insists Biden will serve out a full second term, stresses ‘he has a team’ to help with emergencies “He also said he’s sharpest before 8 p.m. So, say that the Pentagon at some point picked up an incoming nuke. It’s 11 p.m. Who do you call? The First Lady?” a reporter asked Jean-Pierre. “He has a team that lets him know of any … news that is pertinent and important to the American people,” Jean-Pierre explained… Jean-Pierre also largely sidestepped a question about why Hunter Biden crashed meetings with his father in the White House earlier this month…. https://trib.al/qtnKP9H House will subpoena Biden doctor, seek records of medical visits outside White House, Comer vows Comer says president’s mental health “the No. 1 issue in America” as he vows vigorous and fast probe https://justthenews.com/government/white-house/house-will-subpoena-biden-doctor-seek-records-medical-visits-outside-white Positive aspects of previous session Mag 7 and related trading sardines rallied modestly. Solid 3-year auction: 4.399% vs. 4.407% WI Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply but had a modest afternoon rally after a solid 3-year auction. Gold rallied while commodities declined. Ambiguous aspects of previous session How much of market action is recession angst and how much is L’affaire Biden? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5580.77 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5590.75; 5574.57 @charliebilello: The S&P 500 is now 28% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. (Replicating the BIG mistake of the ‘70s, hike rates but don’t remove enough reserves) https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1810805571077165530 Today – With the June CPI due tomorrow, most pros will be cautious. The usual suspects, though, will play their usual proclivities and schemes. We’d guess that most of the session will be choppy, like on Tuesday. However, rumors about June CPI could drive afternoon activity. PS – The House Fin Services Committee will be more hostile to Jerome than the Senate Banking Committee was yesterday. NQUs are +26.00; ESUs are +4.00; USUs are +3/32 at 38 minutes past Biden’s bedtime. Expected econ data: May Wholesale Sales 0.3% m/m, Inventories 0.6%; Powell give his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the House Fin Services Committee 10:00 ET; Fed Gov. Bowman and Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 14:30 ET at Childcare Event (Powell claims the Fed isn’t political!) S&P Index 50-day MA: 5331; 100-day MA: 5228; 150-day MA: 5080; 200-day MA: 4899 DJIA 50-day MA: 39.006; 100-day MA: 38,900; 150-day MA: 38,461; 200-day MA: 37,337 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5576.98 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5256.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5489.63 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5565.71 triggers a sell signal @RNCResearch: BIDEN (slurring again): “Even before Russia vombs were falling Ukraine, the alliances acted!” (NATO speech; Joe did his angry man) https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1810794924452839642 BIDEN: “Urains—urains—Ukraines” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1810794981906436160 BIDEN: “Five aditinsthghga air degeeens shystems https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1810795173116260673 Biden literally can’t look away from the teleprompter — YIKES! https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1810796282677428696 Biden sticks to teleprompters as he gives NATO chief Medal of Freedom to kick off 75-year summit https://trib.al/hzQhOIW GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: New document obtained by @JudiciaryGOP: When Matthew Colangelo applied to work for Letitia James, guess who he listed as references. DNC Chair Tom Perez; Now Biden White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients. It’s always been a political hit job. https://x.com/Jim_Jordan/status/1810690387557724512 Supreme Court Justice Sotomayor’s bodyguard shoots would-be carjacker outside her home https://trib.al/AJxi5nZ @davidharsanyi: “In sum, the Framers did not write the Second Amendment in order to protect a private right of armed self-defense.” — Sotomayor, with the dissent in McDonald Few US elites suffer the consequences of the rulings, policies, and laws. But average Americans do! Authorities Are Literally Losing Control of The Streets as America’s Societal Collapse Accelerates All over this country, the police are completely and utterly overwhelmed by the tsunami of lawlessness that we are witnessing all around us. They are massively outnumbered by the lawbreakers, and the lawbreakers are becoming increasingly bold… https://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/authorities-are-literally-losing-control-of-the-streets-as-americas-societal-collapse-accelerates/ Why the Muslim Vote campaign is a glimpse into a horrifying future – The Telegraph Group’s sectarian insurgency over Gaza succeeded in making a dent to Labour’s majority An insurgent force has entered British politics. The Muslim Vote had no rosette and advanced no meaningful manifesto beyond a set of deeply sectarian principles. It stood candidates tactically, and owed their allegiances purely to religious and ethnic interests. It had a single set of demands, all related to Gaza… On the day of the election, Jeremy Corbyn proclaimed: “Today, Palestine is on the ballot.”… https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/07/07/the-muslim-vote-sectarian-insurgency-gaza-shocked-britain/ “Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.” — Benjamin Franklin | |
GREG HUNTER
early 3 Million Power Outages from Hurricane Beryl – Sat123.com
By Greg Hunter On July 9, 2024 In News15 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Sat123.com/BeReady123.com Sponsored Post)
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harveyorganblog.com 
Harvey. Shame on you!!! Now the polyglot expert Dr. Paul Asslexander is telling us that Biden and other baby eating Democrates have knowingly sold 80,000 missing immigrant children into sex slavery. Do you even read the bull shit your repost day after day?. You bare some responsibility for the high level ignorance, anger and divisiveness in this world! Mark Chrispin Miller is another creative horse shit composer, but you post his crap also. Beware of douche bags who need to use all three names.
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