JULY 11/BLOG//USA CPI PLUMMETS TO -.1%M/M AND THAT PROPELS OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD ROSE $43.05 TO $2416.15//SILVER ROSE 72 CENTS TO $31.47//PLATINUM ROSE $9.45 TO $1004.55 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED UP $8.25 TO $998.15//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY TODAY FROM J.MAVERICK//GOOD COMMODITY REVIEW ON COCOA//POLAND IS NOW PREPARING FOR A FULL SCALE WAR//SWEDEN ASKS NATO TO FACE CHINA AND NOT RUSSIA//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT//SLAY NEWS//EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA DATA: CPI FALLS INTO NEGATIVE TERRITORY ON A MONTH/MONTH BASIS/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 1 NOTICES FOR 100 OZ or 0.00311 TONNES
total notices so far: 2723 contracts for 272,300 Oz (8.4696 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 75 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.375 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5828 for 29.125 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $43.05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/
: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 72 CENTS AT THE SLV//
BIG CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 731,000 OZ FROM THE SLV//
// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 435.625 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 435.625 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 769 CONTRACTS TO 164.014 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS OF $0.04 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN OF 1697 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 472 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 472 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.04) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1697 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.04.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1000 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 495,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 30.045 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 472 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL ADDED 5 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 8 DAYS, total 8432 contracts: OR 42.160 MILLION OZ (1054 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 42.160 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 42.160 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 697 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1000 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 495,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 30.085 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1769 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 472 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (472) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 75 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.375 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 12,417 OI CONTRACTS TO 528,741 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1009 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (12,417 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $12.00 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 8.5723 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $12.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 15,234 OI CONTRACTS (47.39 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2667 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 528,741
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,249 CONTRACTS WITH 12,417 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2617 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 166,243 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 27,051 CONTRACTS,,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2617 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 12,417 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 15,234 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 8.5723 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 27,051 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 36,939 CONTRACTS OR 3,693,900 OZ OR 114.89 TONNES IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4903 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 8 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 114.89 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 114.89 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 114.89 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 769 CONTRACTS OI TO 164,014 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1000 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1000 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1000 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 769 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1000 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1769 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.845 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.04 LOSS IN PRICE …..
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.02 PTS OR 1.06% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 360.46 PTS OR 2.06% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 392.03 OR 0.94%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.93%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2657 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2782/ Oil UP TO 82.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.38/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 12,617 CONTRACTS TO 529,950 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.00 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2617 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST2617 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2617 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 15,234 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2617 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 13,626 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $12.00/WEDNESDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WAS ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 27,051 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. TODAY’S ISSUANCE WAS ANOTHER WHOPPER.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (8.5723 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 8.5723 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $12.00 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 16,243 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 47.39 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 300 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.5723 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 8.5723 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $12.00
WE HAVE REMOVED 1009 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 15,234 CONTRACTS OR 1,523,400 OZ (47.39 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2723 notices 272,300 oz 8.4696 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS NIL
Adjustment 1 DEALER TO CUSTOMER JPMORGAN: 7619.787 IZ
2. CUSTOMER TO DEALR ASAHI: 96.453 OZ
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JUNE
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 34 contracts having LOST 2 contracts. We had 5 notices filed on Tuesday so we gained 3 contracts or an additional 300 oz will stand at the comex (0.00933 tonnes)
AUGUST lost 8724 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 292,348 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 19 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 231.
OCTOBER GAINED 831 CONTRACTS UP TO 30,480 CONTRACTS
We had 1 contract filed for today representing 100 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2723) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 34( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1 x 100 oz per contract( equals 275,600 OZ OR 8.5723 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2723 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (34 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1) x 100 oz which equals 275,600 oz (8.5723TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 8.5723 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,699,809.607 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,815,808.208 ( 243.10 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,884,001.399 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,136,593oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.87 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 11/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,586,806.211oz
ASAHI CNT Delaware HSBC
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
JPMorgan: 594,348.600 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
75 CONTRACT(S) (.375 million OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
189 contracts (0.945 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5828 Contracts (29.125 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i)Into JPMorgan; 594,348.600 oz
total customer deposit 594,348.600 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 129.587million oz/297.503million or 43.52%
adjustment: 1 dealer to customer
i) Brinks 1,200,190.100 oz
customer withdrawals: 4
i) out of Delaware 596,486.241 oz
ii) out of Ashai: 594,348,600 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 596,486.241 0z
iv) Out of HSBC 90,183.930 oz
total withdrawal: 1,586,806.211 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.360 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 297.503
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 264 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 23 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 121 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED A 98 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 490,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE.
AUG, SAW A LOSS OF 9 CONTRACTS TO 1359
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 214 CONTRACTS TO 132,015
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 75 for 0.375 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 54,718 large
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5828 x 5,000 oz = 29.125 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( 264) and the number of notices served upon today 75 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 5828 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (264)x number of notices served upon today minus (75)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 30.095 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 30.095 million oz.
There are 69.360 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 833.37 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 435.625 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
JB Maverick comments on our work exposing the price manipulation of gold and silver.
Well worth reading..
J.B. Maverick: The end of gold and silver price manipulation
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-07-11 10:56 Section: Daily Dispatches
10:55a ET Thursday, July 11, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Financial writer J.B. Maverick, a former commodities trader, credits GATA and draws heavily on its work with his essay published this week, “The End of Gold and Silver Price Manipulation.”
Maverick writes that the “the manipulators were so brazen in their efforts that, despite their constant denials of engaging in price manipulation, their actions were so heavy-handed that they became apparent to nearly everyone. As time went on, both individual traders and organizations such as the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee complained more and more loudly to financial regulatory authorities, eventually forcing them to take some action.”
Maverick’s analysis is posted at the internet site of Miami-based monetary metals dealer True Gold Republic here:
With cocoa prices hovering over $8,000 a ton in New York, the long-anticipated demand destruction for cocoa is finally approaching. New estimates indicate that global bean processing likely declined in the second quarter.
According to six analysts and traders tracked by Bloomberg, second-quarter global grindings—where cocoa transforms into butter and powder used in food products—likely fell from a year earlier. Estimates from European grindings likely fell 2% in the quarter, hitting lows not seen since early 2020. All of the analysts forecasted much larger declines in the second half of the year.
“The cheap stuff is beginning to drop off, and the expensive stuff is coming in,” said Jonathan Parkman, head of agricultural sales at broker Marex Group.
Parkman said, “The worst of input inflation will affect the second half of this year.”
The grinding numbers are nowhere near the deterioration to end elevated cocoa prices, but the estimates suggest emerging demand destruction.
“We are more likely to see a significant change in the grind number in the second half of the year,” said Darren Stetzel, vice president of soft commodities for Asia at broker StoneX.
Stetzel noted that the market has been forced to adapt to the scarcity of beans, which should alleviate some demand pressure. He pointed out that chocolate makers are increasingly using substitutes like palm oil.
Grinding data from Europe is due on Thursday, and Asia and North America will report next week.
Last month, the KitKat-maker warned ‘cocoaflation‘ will soon send candy bar prices higher.
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.02 PTS OR 1.06% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 360.46 PTS OR 2.06% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 392.03 OR 0.94%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.93%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2657 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2782/ Oil UP TO 82.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.38/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2657
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2782
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.02 PTS OR 1.06 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 360.46 PTS OR 2.06%
2. Nikkei closed UP 392.03 PTS OR 0.94%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.59 EURO RISES TO 1.0851 UP 17 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,083 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 161.59 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.536/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.875 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.307%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.535
3j Gold at $2381.60//Silver at: 30.98 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 70/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 87.25
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 161.59/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.083% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8981 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9745 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.280 UP 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.473 UP 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.626 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.89…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1995 UP 7 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Dip Ahead Of “Very Good” CPI
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 08:00 AM
After the S&P closed up the first 7 trading days of July, US equity futures are down small following yesterday’s last hour meltup rally and into today’s CPI. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures down 0.1% after the underlying index gained more than 1% to fresh all-time highs, with Nasdaq futures lagging the same as Mag7 names are mixed pre-market with AMZN/NVDA higher even as Goldman publishes another note warning that at some point the hyperscalers will have to “show investors the money” for all their AI capex investments. Bond yields are flat to down 1bps pushing the USD lower for a second day. In commodities, all 3 complexes are seeing strength. CPI and Fedspeak will dominate today’s headlines but also keep an eye on jobless claims as another Powell input.
In premarket trading, Pfizer rose more than 3% after moving forward with a new wieght-loss pill. Costco climbed after hiking its membership fee for the first time since 2017; the news helped move other staples such as WMT higher. Here are other notable premarket movers:
Albemarle drops 1.7% after Wells Fargo downgrades the stock to equal-weight in a second-quarter preview for the chemicals sector.
Airline stocks drop in premarket after Delta Air Lines issued a forecast for third-quarter adjusted earnings per share that missed consensus expectations.
Alcoa shares rise 2.7% after the aluminum producer’s preliminary adjusted Ebitda for the second quarter came in ahead of estimates.
Costco shares rise 3.0% after the warehouse-club chain announced plans to boost annual membership fees for the first time since 2017, which Jefferies said would be a positive catalyst for the stock. Additionally, the company’s US comparable sales, excluding fuel and currencies, surpassed consensus estimates.
PepsiCo shares fall 2.3% after the snack and soft-drink giant reported weaker-than-expected revenue for the second quarter and tempered its full-year outlook. The company reiterated its annual profit forecast.
The core CPI reading Thursday is expected to rise 0.2% in June for a second month. That would mark the smallest back-to-back gains since August — a pace seen as palatable for Fed officials. Our full preview can be found here.
Swaps are pricing in two Fed cuts in 2024, with a strong chance of the first coming in September. Traders are also eyeing reports from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. tomorrow to cap off the week.
“June’s CPI report looks to be another ‘very good’ report that should boost the FOMC’s confidence about the inflation trajectory,” said Anna Wong at Bloomberg Economics. “That should set the stage for the Fed to start cutting rates in September.”
Meanwhile, Goldman strategists doubled down on their warning about the AI bubble, saying that investors are growing increasingly concerned that US technology megacaps are spending too much on artificial intelligence. Valuations could be due for a painful de-rating unless revenue and earnings rise to justify the capex spending, they said.
Investors broadly expect the frenzy to remain a key feature of a rally in the second half, although some are betting on sectors such infrastructure providers and utilities to lead gains for the remainder of 2024, the Goldman strategists said. One measure, though, signals that the rally may be losing momentum: market breadth has contracted in recent months, with the share of S&P 500 members trading above their 200-day moving average hovering around its lowest in 2024.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 advanced 0.3%, with consumer products, construction and utilities leading gains. DNB Bank ASA surged the most since Nov. 2020 after the Norwegian lender reported earnings that beat analysts’ estimates. Swiss chocolate maker Barry Callebaut AG dropped more than 10% after disappointing results affected by high cocoa-bean prices. Here are the biggest European movers:
DNB jumps as much as 6.4%, the most since November 2020, after the Norwegian lender reported an “impressive” 2Q print, Citi writes, with strong beats to net interest income (NII) and fees
Bayer shares rise as much as 2.9% after securing US FDA fast track designation for AB-1005, which is being developed for moderate Parkinson’s disease
Ambu rises as much as 6.8%, the most since May 15, after the Danish medical device firm predicted full-year revenue gains and said preliminary 3Q results indicated a jump on revenue
Husqvarna gains as much as 6.9% as Nordea upgrades its rating on the Swedish outdoor and garden equipment maker to buy based on expectations for improved earnings momentum
Vivendi gains as much as 3.4%, to the highest price in over two years, as JPMorgan places the French conglomerate on positive catalyst watch and highlights it as a top pick
UK water stocks are trading higher this morning after regulator Ofwat outlined draft determinations regarding the industry’s investment plans
Barry Callebaut slumps as much as 11% after the Swiss chocolate producer reported 9-month sales that Vontobel says show “significant exogenous, unprecedented market headwinds”
Galp declines as much as 4.9% and is the weakest performer on the Stoxx 600 energy index on Thursday as Morgan Stanley downgrades to underweight due to a “rich” valuation
Suedzucker falls as much as 5.1%, to the lowest level since April, after the German sugar producer reported operating profit for the first quarter that missed estimates
Evotec shares fall as much as 6.6% after the German pharmaceutical company was downgraded to hold by Deutsche Bank, which expects soft second-quarter results and sees guidance at risk
DocMorris drops as much as 19%, most since October, after the Swiss pharmacy’s sales came below expectations and its ramp up dynamics of electronic prescriptions could be stronger, ZKB says
Earlier, Asian stocks rose, as Taiwan Semiconductor traded at record levels after the sole supplier of the most-advanced chips for Nvidia and Apple said second-quarter sales grew the fastest since 2022. Sony, Tencent Holdings and Korean chipmaker SK Hynix which traded at its highest levels since 2000, were among top contributors to the climb in the regional stock index. The iPhone maker said it aims to ship 10% more new devices after a bumpy 2023. The S&P 500 has advanced in each of the past seven sessions, its longest winning streak since November. MSCI Inc.’s global stocks index is at a record high.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for a second day to a one-month low. The British pound rose to its strongest level against the dollar since March after data showed the UK economy expanded in May at twice the pace expected. Gross domestic product rose 0.4% month-on-month after the flat reading in April. That compares with the 0.2% pace economists had expected, reflecting the fastest expansion in construction in almost a year. Cable is up 0.2% and set to log its ninth gain in eleven sessions.
In rates, treasuries were steady with price action muted ahead of June CPI data at 8:30am New York time. European bonds lag, led by gilts after UK GDP rose 0.4% in May, double the median estimate. Yields are mixed across the curve but within 1bp of Wednesday’s closing levels. 10-year is around 4.28% with bunds and gilts lagging by 2bp and 3bp in the sector. Along with CPI, US session includes 30-year bond auction at 1pm, following good results earlier this week for 3- and 10-year offerings.
In commodities, oil climbed for a second day with WTI trading near $82.20 a barrel as a decline in US crude inventories countered the IEA’s call that demand growth is slowing. Gold edged higher for a third day, adding $12 to around $2,383/oz.
Looking at the calendar, US economic data slate includes the CPI report and initial jobless claims (8:30am) and monthly budget statement (2pm). Fed members scheduled to speak include Bostic (11:15am) and Musalem (1pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,684.75
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 519.14
MXAP up 1.1% to 187.17
MXAPJ up 1.3% to 585.57
Nikkei up 0.9% to 42,224.02
Topix up 0.7% to 2,929.17
Hang Seng Index up 2.1% to 17,832.33
Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 2,970.39
Sensex little changed at 79,916.84
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,889.64
Kospi up 0.8% to 2,891.35
German 10Y yield +1.5bps at 2.55%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0841
Brent Futures up 0.4% to $85.46/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,380.86
US Dollar Index down 0.12% to 104.92
Top Overnight News
Democratic donors have warned that funding for the November election effort is “drying up” because of President Joe Biden’s refusal to step aside, threatening to undermine the party’s effort to defeat Donald Trump. FT
The United States will start deploying long-range fire capabilities in Germany in 2026 in an effort to demonstrate its commitment to NATO and European defense, the United States and Germany said in a joint statement. RTRS
China cracks down further on short selling, with higher margin requirements for the activity (while the country’s largest stock lending provider will suspend its business of lending securities to brokerages). BBG
NATO dramatically ratcheted up its criticism of China’s support for Russia, calling Beijing a “decisive enabler” of Putin’s war, language that could open the door to sanctions against the Xi government. NYT
Global oil demand growth slowed to its weakest in more than a year last quarter, with consumption rising by just 710,000 barrels a day as China slipped into a marginal contraction, the IEA said. Demand remains on track to grow by less than 1 million b/d this year and next. BBG
The NBA has finalized an 11-year TV rights deal worth $76B with NBC, Amazon, and ESPN, although it’s not clear if TNT will retain a few games for itself. The Athletic
Apple has avoided the threat of fines from European Union regulators by agreeing to open up its mobile wallet technology to other providers free of charge for a decade. BBG
PEP reported solid EPS upside in FQ2 at 2.28 (vs. the Street 2.15), but organic revenue growth of 1.9% fell short by ~100bp (the Street was modeling +2.9%). RTRS
Since the start of 2023, 97% of NVDA’s return has been driven by greater earnings (vs. just 3% from valuation expansion). However, year to date, NVDA’s NTM P/E ratio has increased from 25x to 42x (+70%), accounting for 56% of the 165% YTD price return: Goldman
Fed’s Cook (voter) said the baseline outlook is for a continued fall in inflation without a significant increase in unemployment and US data is consistent with a soft landing. Cook added they are very attentive to what is happening with the unemployment rate and would be responsive if the situation changes quickly.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer is privately signalling to donors he is open to a democratic presidential ticket that isn’t led by President Biden, according to Axios.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk
APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where the major indices rallied as outperformance in tech spear-headed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs once again following TSMC’s record quarterly sales and as Apple aims to boost iPhone shipments. ASX 200 gained with all sectors in the green and notable strength in tech, real estate, and heavy industries. Nikkei 225 continued its record-setting streak and advanced above the 42,000 level for the first time. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the broad constructive mood amid the rising tide across equities despite NATO’s firm rhetoric on China which it called a decisive enabler of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, while sentiment was also unfazed by reports that Germany is to cut Huawei from its mobile networks.
Top Asian News
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK said it will maintain a restrictive policy stance for a sufficient period of time and will examine the timing of a rate cut, while it dropped the phrase that ‘upside risks to inflation forecasts have increased’ in its policy statement and said inflation could be slower than forecast. BoK Governor Rhee said they need to assess how a rate cut would affect financial stability and that a cut could adversely affect financial stability. Furthermore, he commented “time to prepare pivot rate cuts” and that two board members said they could consider a rate cut within the next three months, although he added that market expectations for policy rate cuts are a little excessive.
Fast Retailing (9983 JT) – 9M (JPY): Net Profit 312.84bln (+31.2% Y/Y), operating profit 410.8bln (+21.5%); Sees FY operating income at 475bln (prev. 450bln)
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) are entirely in the green, in a continuation of the strength seen on Wall St. in the prior session, which also helped to prop up sentiment in APAC trade. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Consumer Products takes the spot, propped up by gains in the Luxury sector. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, though with marginal losses. US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.1%, RTY U/C) are flat/lower, taking a breather from the significant gains seen in the prior session.
Top European News
Goldman Sachs raises UK’s 2024 GDP growth forecast to 1.2% (prev. 1.1%)
UK PM Starmer said the special relationship with the US is so important and stronger than ever.
India warned the UK not to impose a deadline on trade talks, while India’s Commerce Minister said India and the UK are ‘on board’ on the major details, according to FT.
FX
DXY is back onto a 104 handle with all eyes on US CPI which takes place in the context of last week’s “dovish NFP” and “dovish” comments from Fed Chair Powell.
EUR/USD has marginally built on yesterday’s gains and incrementally surpassed Monday’s 1.0845 peak. For today, fate for the EUR/USD pair will likely be dictated by events stateside.
GBP is extending its run as the best performing G10 currency YTD. Strong GDP metrics have followed up recent hawkish rhetoric from Haskel, Pill and Mann. Cable as high as 1.2876 with the next target coming via the March 8th YTD peak at 1.2893.
JPY clawed back some ground vs. the USD after climbing as high as 161.75 overnight and backing away from the multi-decade 161.95 high seen on the 3rd July.
Antipodeans are both near the top of the G10 leaderboard, benefiting from the constructive risk tone. NZD/USD is attempting to atone for Wednesday’s RBNZ induced losses which saw the pair relinquish the 0.61 handle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1339 vs exp. 7.2730 (prev. 7.1342).
Fixed Income
USTs are flat in a very narrow 3+ tick range ahead of US CPI. A data point that will be scrutinised to see if it favours a September cut; within Wednesday’s 110-10 to 110-20 parameters, a hawkish CPI print could bring into play the WTD 110-07 base.
Bunds are incrementally softer with specifics light and attention entirely on US CPI. Recent very modest bout of downside came in tandem with a slight pick-up in the crude complex.
Gilts are the incremental underperformer after strong growth data for May which caused Gilts to open lower by a handful of ticks before dipping further to a 97.81 base. Gilts remain comfortably within existing 97.64-98.38 WTD parameters. Gilts caught a slight bid following a well received 7yr auction.
UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.00% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.29x (prev. 2.97x), average yield 4.074% (prev. 4.218%), tail 1.9bps (prev. 1.4bps).
Italy sells EUR 8.5bln vs exp. EUR 7.25-8.5bln 3.45% 2027, 1.10% 2027, 3.45% 2031, 0.90% 2031, 4.45% 2043 BTP. A well received auction which sparked modest upside in BTPs, lifting them to incremental session peaks of 117.26; though not all to surprising given the reduced auction amount.
Commodities
Crude futures hold a modest upward bias but trade off best levels after WTI Aug hit an overnight peak of USD 82.87/bbl. Elsewhere, the IEA monthly oil market report had no bearing on prices. Brent September currently sits around USD 85.30/bbl.
Mixed price action in the precious metals complex with spot palladium underperforming after yesterday’s rebound, whilst spot gold and silver hold a mild upward bias heading into the US CPI metrics. Spot gold currently sits in a USD 2,371.34-2,384.14/oz range.
Base metals are mixed with the breadth of the market also narrow. Copper prices remain subdued following a large build (+11.3k tons) in LME inventories after jumping to the highest level since 2021 yesterday.
Azerbaijan oil production at 65.597k tons per day in June (vs 62.118k in May), according to the energy ministry.
IEA OMR: Sees 2024 and 2025 oil demand growth forecasts little changed from the prior month at just below 1mln BPD; Global oil demand growth slows further at China cools; China’s oil demand growth eased to 710k BPD in Q2, IEA say. IEA sees oil demand growth at 970k BPD in 2024 (prev. 960k BPD), 980k BPD in 2025 (prev. 1mln BPD). Iran’s crude oil production rises to six-year high. Global oil stockpiles fell 18.1mln bbl in June in prelim data. Subpar economic growth, efficiencies, EVs are oil headwinds
Geopolitics: Middle East
The Gaza cease-fire agreement framework is reportedly agreed, and the parties are now “negotiating details of how it will be implemented”, according to a senior US official cited by Washington Post’s Ignatius. “US officials say the framework of a three-stage deal is down to implementation details.” “Officials caution that although the framework is in place, a final pact probably isn’t imminent, and the details are complex and will take time to work through.” “A final possible bonus of a Gaza cease-fire is that Saudi Arabia has signaled it is prepared to ‘move forward on normalization’ of relations with Israel”, according to a US official.
White House’s Kirby says he is cautiously optimistic things are moving in the right direction on Gaza ceasefire talks, according to CNN.
Geopolitics: Other
China’s mission to the EU said the declaration of the NATO summit in Washington is full of ‘Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric,’ and the China-related content is full of provocations, ‘lies, incitement, and smears’
Taiwan is to strengthen its civil defence to prepare against China’s threat with the government working to prepare public services and infrastructure to function in wartime as China’s aggressive stance fuels concerns about the risk of open conflict, according to FT.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says US and Germany’s decision to deploy long-range missiles in Germany is aimed at harming Russia’s security; says Russia will respond “in a military manner”, according to RIA
US Event Calendar
08:30: June CPI MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0%
June CPI YoY, est. 3.1%, prior 3.3%
June CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
June CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.4%, prior 3.4%
June Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 0.8%, revised 0.7%
08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 235,000, prior 238,000
June Continuing Claims, est. 1.86m, prior 1.86m
14:00: June Monthly Budget Statement, est. -$76.1b, prior -$347.1b
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After telling you earlier this week that I hoped my current trip to Cape Town would be less eventful than my last 20 years ago, it is fair to say it’s not been without incident. Yesterday due to a historically bad run of weather, the mayor of Cape Town told everyone to work from home and today schools are closed with people urged to stay off the roads and remain indoors. So thanks to the many who braved the storm to meet us yesterday. Being forced to stay inside and watch England play in the current Euros would have been worse than any storm but miracles have happened and they reached the final last night. I’m not expecting Spain to be quaking in their boots this morning.
There are few storms in the US at the moment, with markets continuing to power forward over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+1.02%) advancing to its 37th record this year with the Mag-7 (+1.26%) now surpassing +50% YTD. These moves are becoming increasingly relentless now, as the S&P rose for a 7th consecutive day for the first time since November, and it’s also the first time since late-2021 that it’s managed 10 out of 11 gains in a row. So not the sort of rally you see every day, and if we can make it to 11 out of 12 gains today, that would be the first time that’s happened since April 2019. Over those 10 days the rally is +3.4% so steady and relentless rather than spectacular, at least prior to yesterday. This continued strength has been echoed across different asset classes though, but it’s now going to face several important tests, as the US CPI release is coming out today and earnings season is about to kick off in earnest, with several US banks reporting tomorrow.
That CPI release is in particular focus, because there’s been mounting anticipation that the Fed might still deliver two rate cuts this year, with September and December seen as the most likely dates. It’s true that their dot plot in June only signalled one cut this year, but since then we’ve had some weaker jobs reports, and the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4.1%, which is the highest since November 2021. So if there is positive news on inflation and we get another soft print, then that momentum for a rate cut is likely to build further.
Back in Q1, the inflation numbers were much stronger than expected, which meant that market pricing for rapid rate cuts this year proved wide of the mark. But since then, the April inflation numbers eased a bit, and the latest print from May was even better from the Fed’s perspective. Indeed, the monthly core CPI reading was down to just +0.16%, the weakest since August 2021. So with more numbers like those, the Fed could feel a lot more confident that inflation was heading durably back to their 2% target.
In terms of today, our US economists are expecting that both headline and core will be a bit firmer than last month, with headline at a monthly +0.09%, and core at +0.25%. In turn, that would push the year-on-year measure down to 3.1% for headline CPI, although the core CPI measure would tick up a tenth to 3.5%. When it comes to the Fed, it’ll also be worth keeping an eye on tomorrow’s PPI report as well, since several components in that feed into the PCE measure of inflation that they officially target. So over the next couple of days we’ll get a better idea of where that’s likely to land and if the Fed have the space to cut rates. Our US economists point out that the median forecast for core PCE in the June SEP was at +2.8% on a Q4/Q4 basis, so to achieve that we need to see monthly core PCE at an average pace of 20bps a month for the rest of the year. So for them, that’s the primary test for whether the Fed can cut earlier than their baseline, which sees a first cut in December. For more details on their CPI forecast and how to sign up for their subsequent webinar, click here.
Ahead of that, Fed Chair Powell was continuing his semiannual congressional testimony yesterday, appearing at the House Financial Services Committee. But there weren’t really any fresh headlines from that, and T reasury yields were largely steady on the day, with the 2yr yield (-0.6bps) and the 10yr yield (-1.2bps) both slightly lower. It was a similar story for Fed pricing, with the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting (+0.4bps) also little changed at 51bps.
On the equity side, the S&P 500 (+1.02%) posted its biggest gain in over a month, with the advance once again led by the tech mega caps. The Mag-7 (+1.26%) extended its YTD gain to +50.9%, led by Nvidia (+2.69%) and Apple (+1.88%) on the day. That said, the session saw broad gains with all top level sector groups within the S&P 500 up by at least 0.4% on the day.
Meanwhile in Europe, markets staged a recovery yesterday, with the S TOXX 600 (+0.91%), the DAX (+0.94%) and the CAC 40 (+0.86%) all advancing. It was the same story for sovereign bonds, with spreads tightening as yields on 10yr bunds (-4.7bps), OATs (-5.9bps) and BTPs (-8.8bps) all came down as well. However, UK gilts (-3.3bps) saw a smaller decline in yields, which followed comments from BoE chief economist Pill that were perceived a bit more hawkishly. He said that “It’s still an open question of whether the time for that cut is now or not,” which seemingly cast doubt on the prospect of a cut when they announce their next decision on August 1. Indeed, investors moved to dial back the chance in response, with the probability of a cut down from 64% the previous day to 56% by the close. The next important data print will be the CPI release next week, but Pill also pointed out that “we have to be realistic about how much any one or two releases can add to our assessment.”
Asian equity markets are all higher this morning as the globa l risk move gathers momentum . Across the region, Chinese stocks are outperforming with the Hang Seng (+1.45%) leading gains while the CSI (+0.99%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.77%) are also higher. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.94%) is being powered by technology stocks and crossing 42,000 for the first time. The KOSPI (+0.75%) is also higher as the Bank of Korea kept interest rates steady at 3.5% for the 12th consecutive meeting, as widely expected. In overnight trading, US stock futures are pausing for a breather at the moment and are broadly flat alongside Treasury yields.
Early morning data showed that Japanese core machinery orders unexpectedly fell sharply again in May (-3.2% m/m v/s +0.8% expected) dampening expectations for a recovery in Japanese investment in Q2/Q3. It followed a -2.9% decline in April.
In the geopolitical space, today will see the final day of this year’s NATO summit in Washington. The summit has been somewhat overshadowed by lingering questions over President Biden’s candidacy for the November US election. These re-intensified yesterday, initially triggered by an interview from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who avoided unequivocally supporting Biden, saying “it’s up to the president to decide” if he should stay on in the race. Later on Peter Welch of Vermont became the first Democratic senator to call on Biden to withdraw from the race, while Axios reported that Democrat Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was privately open to replacing Biden as the presidential nominee.
To the rest of the day ahead now, and data releases include the US CPI reading for June, the weekly initial jobless claims, and UK GDP for May. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Bostic and Musalem.
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2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Another set of record highs stateside ahead of US CPI – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 01:30 AM
APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose to fresh record highs once again.
European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up by 1.1% on Wednesday.
DXY sits just below the 105 mark, antipodeans lead, Cable has held onto recent gains and USD/JPY continues to edge higher.
BoE’s Mann said that wage growth is still far away from being consistent with the inflation target.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP, US CPI, IJC, Comments from Fed’s Bostic & Musalem, Supply from UK, US & Italy.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks rallied in which the S&P 500 and Nasdaq printed fresh record highs again with gains led by outperformance in tech after semis were buoyed by strong TSMC sales and Apple caught a bid on reports it aims to boost iPhone 16 shipments. Attention was also on Fed Chair Powell’s second day of testimony to Congress where he largely stuck to the script and noted more good data was needed to be convinced inflation is returning to the target in a sustainable way, as well as repeated that risks to both sides of the mandate have come back into better balance.
SPX +1.02% at 5,633, NDX +1.09% at 20,675, DJI +1.09% at 39,721, RUT +1.10% at 2,051.
Fed’s Cook (voter) said the baseline outlook is for a continued fall in inflation without a significant increase in unemployment and US data is consistent with a soft landing. Cook added they are very attentive to what is happening with the unemployment rate and would be responsive if the situation changes quickly.
WSJ’s Timiraos wrote “Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell made the beginning of a pivot on interest rates that might prove more durable than one that sparked a big market rally at the end of last year”.
A senior Biden team is to brief US senators at lunch on Thursday, according to Reuters citing a senate democratic leadership source. It was later reported that the meeting between Biden’s advisers and Senate Democrats on Thursday is for Senate Democrats to express to the Biden team their reservations about the President, according to Fox News.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer is privately signalling to donors he is open to a democratic presidential ticket that isn’t led by President Biden, according to Axios.
US House Oversight Panel subpoenaed top Biden aides over his mental fitness, according to Axios.
US House Democrat Leader Jeffries told lawmakers he will relay their concerns about Biden’s electability, according to Politico.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks took impetus from Wall St where the major indices rallied as outperformance in tech spear-headed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to fresh record highs once again following TSMC’s record quarterly sales and as Apple aims to boost iPhone shipments.
ASX 200 gained with all sectors in the green and notable strength in tech, real estate, and heavy industries.
Nikkei 225 continued its record-setting streak and advanced above the 42,000 level for the first time.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the broad constructive mood amid the rising tide across equities despite NATO’s firm rhetoric on China which it called a decisive enabler of Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, while sentiment was also unfazed by reports that Germany is to cut Huawei from its mobile networks.
US equity futures plateaued after yesterday’s tech-driven advances and with CPI data on the horizon.
European equity futures indicate a mildly positive open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed up by 1.1% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY traded uneventfully and languished just beneath the 105.00 level as participants braced for CPI data.
EUR/USD continued its gradual rebound from this week’s floor near 1.0800 as the ECB enters a quiet period.
GBP/USD held onto its recent gains as attention in the UK turns to monthly GDP and output data.
USD/JPY traded indecisively after mixed Machinery Orders although found support at the 161.50 level.
Antipodeans benefitted in tandem with the positive risk environment and mild CNY strength.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1339 vs exp. 7.2730 (prev. 7.1342).
FIXED INCOME
10-year UST futures lacked direction after yesterday’s indecision heading into US CPI and a 30-year auction.
Bund futures were contained after having recently pulled back from resistance near the 131.50 level.
10-year JGB futures traded rangebound following mixed Machinery Orders data and with only brief support seen following the stronger results at the latest 20-year JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures extended on gains amid the positive risk sentiment and following recent inventory data.
US Energy Department announced a new solicitation for up to 4.5mln barrels of oil for delivery to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s Bayou Choctaw site from October through December.
Spot gold gradually edged higher but remained within the prior day’s parameters ahead of inflation data.
Copper futures were little changed and only slightly benefitted from the mostly constructive mood.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin traded indecisively and ultimately faded an initial rally above the USD 58,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
US Treasury Undersecretary Shambaugh said the US may need to take further action to protect US industries from China’s industrial overcapacity and more creative approaches beyond Section 301 tariff adjustments may be necessary against China’s overproduction and exports.
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK said it will maintain a restrictive policy stance for a sufficient period of time and will examine the timing of a rate cut, while it dropped the phrase that ‘upside risks to inflation forecasts have increased’ in its policy statement and said inflation could be slower than forecast. BoK Governor Rhee said they need to assess how a rate cut would affect financial stability and that a cut could adversely affect financial stability. Furthermore, he commented “time to prepare pivot rate cuts” and that two board members said they could consider a rate cut within the next three months, although he added that market expectations for policy rate cuts are a little excessive.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Machinery Orders MM (May) -3.2% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. -2.9%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (May) 10.8% vs. Exp. 7.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and IDF Chief of the General Staff Halevi both said they are in favour of a hostage deal with Hamas, according to Kann News.
Israel is close to agreeing to withdraw from the Rafah crossing and there are attempts to open the Rafah crossing by the end of July after the full Israeli withdrawal. However, there are sticking points regarding the identification of the Palestinian parties that will operate the Rafah crossing, according to Al Arabiya citing Arabic sources.
Tel Aviv agreed in the Cairo meeting that Palestinian parties would take over the management of the Rafah crossing, according to Israeli media. Solutions proposed during the Cairo meeting do not include an Israeli presence on the ground in Gaza, while Tel Aviv requested guarantees from Washington that it could attack the Gaza Strip again if it was proven that militants had returned to its north.
White House’s Kirby says he is cautiously optimistic things are moving in the right direction on Gaza ceasefire talks, according to CNN.
US is to begin shipping 500-pound bombs to Israel, according to a report by WSJ.
OTHER
US is to start deploying long-range fire capabilities in Germany in 2026 in an effort to demonstrate its commitment to NATO and European defence, according to a joint statement from Germany and the US.
China’s mission to the EU said the declaration of the NATO summit in Washington is full of ‘Cold War mentality and belligerent rhetoric,’ and the China-related content is full of provocations, ‘lies, incitement, and smears’
Taiwan is to strengthen its civil defence to prepare against China’s threat with the government working to prepare public services and infrastructure to function in wartime as China’s aggressive stance fuels concerns about the risk of open conflict, according to FT.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE’s Mann said the supply side of the economy is growing very slowly, while she still sees labour market tightness and stated that wage growth is still far away from being consistent with the inflation target.
UK PM Starmer said the special relationship with the US is so important and stronger than ever.
India warned the UK not to impose a deadline on trade talks, while India’s Commerce Minister said India and the UK are ‘on board’ on the major details, according to FT.
DATA RECAP
UK RICS Housing Survey (Jun) -17.0 vs. Exp. -15.0 (Prev. -17.0)
Japan Intervenes In FX Market To Crush Yen Shorts After Dovish CPI
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 10:44 AM
The yen – that favorite asset of momo chasers and Mrs Watanabes everywhere – exploded more than 2% against the dollar in the wake of the much weaker than expected CPI print, a move which was quickened by what Asahi TV reports was the latest round of BOJ intervention.
Japan’s currency abruptly soared to 157.44 per dollar from just shy of 162.00 in the minutes following news that core CPI rose the least in almost three years. The move followed the yen hitting its weakest level since 1986 just last week, fueling a new wave of jawboning from Japanese authorities about their willingness to act to bolster the currency if necessary.
And after the USDJPY plunged more than 3 yen in short order, with traders divided whether the speedy rally was a result of options trades being closed out, or a sign that Japan was in the market, Japan’s Asahi TV gave the answer:
JAPAN INTERVENED IN FOREX MARKET, TV ASAHI REPORTS CITING GOVERNMENT SOURCE OR SOURCES
In other words, what happened was the following: USDJPY tumbled as much as 2%, its biggest drop since the last BOJ intervention back on May 1:
This was followed by a flurry of comments from the recently fired Japanese top FX diplomat (who still has an office apparently) Kanda, and who did not confirm the intervention…
*KANDA: WE GENERALLY DON’T COMMENT ON WHETHER INTERVENED IN FX
*KANDA: IF WE DID INTERVENE TODAY WE’LL DISCLOSE AT MONTH-END
… he did confirm that the BOJ has finally realized that the imploding yen has sparked an inflationary firestorm, one which is having a “big impact on people’s livelihoods”:
*KANDA: FLUCTUATIONS ARE LARGE, DIFFER FROM FUNDAMENTALS
*KANDA: BIG FX MOVES HAVE BIG IMPACT ON PEOPLE’S LIVELIHOODS
… which also means that Japan finally cares about the explosive inflation yen collapse has sparked, and as often happens, is about to blame the speculators who are – all of them – short the yen.
*KANDA: IT’S SAID SPECULATION IS CONTROLLING THE MARKET
*KANDA: RECENT MOVES ARE NOT REFLECTING FUNDAMENTALS
What is the take home message here?
First, the intervention was coordinated: Japan’s MOF was well aware that the US CPI print would be a big miss ahead of time, and minutes after the report it unleashed tens of billions worth in JPY buying, something it wouldn’t have been able to do at 9pm in the evening Japan time without advance notice.
Second, the campaign to crush “speculative” shorts – who are now officially blamed for Japan’s galloping inflation – has begun, and both the BOJ and MOF have a green lights to intervene at any moment to further send the yen sharply higher.
Third, with the BOJ expected to either taper its huge QE next month, or to hike rates, or both, one can be absolutely certain that Tokyo would not have spent another $20 billion or so in FX reserves only to see the USDJPY print new 40 year highs in a few days; it also means that as part of the coordinated intervention, the BOJ will surprise if not shock, hawkishly, and we fully expected that the next big move will push the USDJPY below 150.
2024 has been a catastrophic year for the yen which has imploded, making it not only the worst-performing Group-of-10 currency, but also underperforming banana republic currencies such as the real, peso and lira. Sentiment has been so poor that bearish wagers have dominated the market even after the Bank of Japan raised its short-term policy rate for the first time since 2007 in March. That said, if there is truly a shift in policy at the Fed and BOJ, sit back and watch as the biggest momentum reversal trade in decades kicks in and sends the JPY soaring, potentially making it the best performing currency this year, or at the latest, in 2025.
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
POLAND
This is very troublesome!
(zerohedge)
Poland Preparing Military For Full-Scale Conflict, Army Chief Says
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 02:45 AM
NATO officials have announced several major moves which collectively mark a significant escalation with Russia at the annual NATO summit in Washington DC this week. First, President Biden on Tuesday unveiled that the US is sending dozens of anti-air defense systems to Ukraine forces amid stepped-up Russian aerial assaults.
Next, a joint statement from Washington, the Hague and Copenhagen confirmed that an initial batch of US-made F-16 jet fighters are en route to Ukraine. This alone marks a massive escalation, given Moscow has already vowed it will target the jets.
On Wednesday, yet another ultra-provocative announcement was made aimed at ‘deterring’ Moscow. Poland’s army chief of staff General Wieslaw Kukula called for his country to prepare its soldiers for all-out conflict.
“Today, we need to prepare our forces for full-scale conflict, not an asymmetric-type conflict,” General Kukula told a press conference. “This forces us to find a good balance between the border mission and maintaining the intensity of training in the army,” he said.
His ‘border mission’ reference alludes to the ongoing tensions with Belarus, a close Russian ally which forms part of the ‘Union State’. Poland recently implemented its “East Shield” program, a $2.5 billion initiative to beef up defenses along the Poland-Belarus border.
Going back to 2021, Belarus has been accused of intentionally flooding the Polish border with Middle East migrants as a form of hybrid warfare. The European Union has charged President Alexander Lukashenko with orchestrating a border crisis in order to bog down Polish troops and border guards. Another issue is that China’s military has kicked off exercises with Belarusian forcesin Brest in recent days, which lies within miles of the Polish border.
According to more of Wednesday’s Polish military announcement from Reuters, “Speaking at the same event, deputy defense minister Pawel Bejda said that as of August, the number of troops guarding Poland’s eastern border would be increased to 8,000 from the current 6,000, with an additional rearguard of 9,000 able to step up within 48 hours notice.”
Warsaw has also been on a major recruitment campaign toward rapidly increasing the size of its armed forces. This comes at a moment the NATO ‘eastern flank’ country is increasingly hitching its wagon to Ukraine’s fate. The current size of the Polish armed forces is commonly estimated at 190,000 personnel, but Warsaw wants to bolster it to 300,000 troops within a few years.
On Monday, President Zelensky met with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw where the two signed an unprecedented military agreement. Zelensky subsequently highlighted a provision which allows Poland to intercept Russian missiles over Ukraine territory, if they are deemed a threat to Poland and its population.
Poland has throughout the Ukraine war maintained a muscular, hawkish posture toward Russia and has criticized efforts at peaceful settlement at the negotiating table.
Just this week Polish President Andrzej Duda reiterated that Ukraine must not cede any territory to Russia in exchange for peace. He said Tuesday, “If there is anyone who wants to give to Russia a piece of Ukrainian land and they are not Ukrainian, then let them give a piece of their land to Russia because it is easy to give away a piece of somebody else’s land.”
“I would like this war to end as soon as possible. However, it cannot end, it must not end in the victory of Russia because if it happened that way, we will have another war soon because Russia will attack again,” Duda added.
Sure looks like we’re planning to invade Russia. Lot of American troops on the “Eastern flank” …
Quote
NATO
@NATO
·
Mar 24, 2022
We face a new reality for our security due to #Russia’s illegal invasion of #Ukraine. In response, #NATO has reinforced its defensive presence in the eastern part of the Alliance with more troops, planes & ships. #NATOSummit
Show more
·
5,348 Views
Sure looks like we're planning to invade Russia. Lot of American troops on the "Eastern flank" … https://t.co/eUcA823BCl
NATO officially announces it will send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for its war against Russia. Russian President Putin previously said F-16 fighter jets are legitimate targets for Moscow, even on third-country airfields. Putin also said if NATO sends F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, it is an escalation of Russian rhetoric that could potentially lead to a war. Is NATO now at war with Russia?
·
2.9M Views
JUST IN: 🇷🇺 🇺🇦 NATO officially announces it will send F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for its war against Russia.
Russian President Putin previously said F-16 fighter jets are legitimate targets for Moscow, even on third-country airfields.
President Biden too in his Tuesday address to the NATO summit declared that Ukraine will prevail against Russia, despite the widespread reports that Ukrainian forces have suffered a severe manpower shortage. He said forcefully: “Ukraine can and will stop Putin.”
However, all of this seems a ‘blind escalation’ without end or without strategy… a recipe for taking NATO directly into WW3 with nuclear-armed Russia.
* * *
Utter madness…
end
SWEDEN/NATO/CHINA
Trump realizes that it is China the problem and not Russia. He wants assets of NATO to face China
(zerohedge)
Sweden Calls On NATO To Focus On China To Placate Trump
As members of the North Atlantic Alliance gather in Washington DC to celebrate the pact’s 75th year, Sweden is calling on the alliance to shift some of its attention to China. Stockholm argues this will align the bloc more with former US President Donald Trump’s policies.
On Tuesday, Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom explained that the alliance should reorient some of its military assets towards Asia to confront Beijing. “If you want your partner to think about the things you think are a problem, you have to show commitment to their problems, and the American people are more concerned with the threat that China poses than Russia, for obvious reasons,” he explained.
Billstrom added the bloc will keep fighting Russia in Ukraine but China “should also be recognized as part of NATO’s concerns, [and] headache.“
The shift towards confronting Beijing would put Brussels more in line with the world view of Trump, who many believe will likely win November’s election after President Joe Biden’s recent poor debate performance.
Some European leaders and NATO officials have feared that if Trump returns to the Oval Office, he will end US support for the proxy war in Ukraine or remove America from the alliance. Billstrom admitted that without Washington’s membership, NATO would be “unthinkable” and lack credibility.
It is unclear how the bloc would find the resources to confront China in the Indo-Pacific. Members of the alliance are struggling to provide Ukrainian soldiers with the arms they need to hold off Russian forces. Additionally, a NATO official recently explained that the bloc is 35-50 brigades short of being able to execute its battle plans should war with Russia break out in Europe.
The focus on China is the latest effort by the bloc to “Trump-proof” US support for Ukraine should the 45th president win reelection. Past efforts to lock the American taxpayers into a decade-long scheme to fund Kiev with tens of billions of dollars annually failed to materialize.
The concern over a second Trump presidency may be misguided. During his first term, Trump oversaw the expansion of NATO and began shipping arms to Ukraine.
“Privately, everybody would agree that everybody’s going to have to go above 2%,” a senior NATO official said as a growing number of countries look to restart the conversation on NATO spending.
“Privately, everybody would agree that everybody’s going to have to go above 2%,” a senior NATO official said as a growing number of countries look to restart the conversation on NATO spending. https://t.co/PWtMx74wR1
— Mathias Gjesdal Hammer (@GjesdalHammer) July 9, 2024
American political figures who operate near Trump say his main concern is getting alliance members to spend more on weapons and war. Currently, the US military budget accounts for 68% of the bloc’s defense spending, at least ten times greater than second-highest spender Germany.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/USA
US resumes arms shipments to Israel, including 500-pound bombs – WSJ report
According to reports, the bombs “are in the process of being shipped” and could arrive in Israel in coming weeks.
The United States will soon ship weapons and arms that the Biden administration suspended, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported Wednesday.
The new shipments ends a two-month pause in weapons deliveries.
Weapons include 500-pound bombs that the Biden administration previously suspended, with the administration citing civilian casualties in Gaza, WSJ noted in their report.
The WSJ report stated that according to estimates, the bombs “are in the process of being shipped” and will arrive in Israel in coming weeks.
However, according to reports, heavier bombs, including 2,000-pound bombs are still on hold, US officials stated.
A US Marine Corps F-35B fighter jet drops a laser-guided bomb at Edwards Air Force Base, California. (credit: US NAVY VIA REUTERS)
The 500-pound bombs a US official said were “co-mingled” with the shipment of 2,000-pound bombs withheld from Israel are “moving forward as part of the usual process,” according to a statement to The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday night.
Officials confirm shipment released to Israel as ‘part of usual process’
“We’ve been clear that our concern has been on the end-use of the 2,000-lb bombs, particularly in advance of Israel’s Rafah campaign which they have announced they are concluding,” the US official said in a statement to The Post. “Because of how these shipments are put together, other munitions may sometimes be co-mingled.”
The official said that’s what happened with the 500-lb bombs since their main concern “had been and remains the potential use of 2,000-pound bombs in Rafah and elsewhere in Gaza.”
In a statement to The Post, a National Security Council spokesperson said other than the one shipment with the 2,000lb bombs that has been paused and remains paused, weapons shipments continue to move in due course.
“But we’re not going to get into specifics of every shipment,” the spokesperson said.
The delayed shipment, initially blocked by US President Joe Biden, had become a contentious issue in US-Israel relations. According to N12, the shipment’s approval follows intensive negotiations and diplomatic efforts led by Israel’s Defense Ministry, including the director general and the head of the planning division, alongside the Defense Minister, who recently visited the United States to advocate for the release.
Defense Ministry active in advocating for resuming shipments
The weapons pause was major topic of discussion when Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met with senior leaders across the Biden administration last month following a public barb when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused the US of withholding more weapons than just the 500 and 2,000-lb weapons.
In a meeting with reporters, Gallant refused to discuss the specifics of his conversations regarding the withheld weapons shipment or Netanyahu’s claims that other arms and munitions have been withheld.
“Our relationship, the atmosphere, and the frank way in which we speak, are very important,” Gallant said of his meetings with the Biden administration. “Any obstacles that exist are discussed in closed rooms. I think that this is the way to work between friends and allies.”
The delayed shipment, initially blocked by US President Joe Biden, had become a contentious issue in US-Israel relations. According to N12, the shipment’s approval follows intensive negotiations and diplomatic efforts led by Israel’s Defense Ministry, including the director general and the head of the planning division, alongside the Defense Minister, who recently visited the United States to advocate for the release.
The issue of delayed arms shipments has been a source of tension since May when the Biden administration paused the transfer of certain munitions due to concerns over their potential impact in densely populated areas in Gaza. This included 2,000-pound and 500-pound bombs, which were seen as likely to cause significant civilian casualties during operations against Hamas. Despite this, the US has continued to provide other forms of military support to Israel, including smaller munitions and air defenses.
END
ISRAEL /HAMAS
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
END
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA/
RUSSIA/INDIA
Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was Much More Important Than Most Observers Realize
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi just completed his first trip to Russia in half a decade and put an end to the several-year-long hiatus in annual meetings between their leaders. The outcome was nine agreements on a wide range of subjects along with a detailed joint statement for guiding their special and privileged strategic partnership to 2030. There were no landmark deals, but nor should any have been expected, since the meeting was only planned recently for the reasons that’ll now be explained.
“Modi’s Trip To Moscow Was Meant To Assess The Reliability Of Russia’s Geopolitical Balancing Act” after his hosts sent eight signals since the start of the year hinting at an impending pro-Chinese pivot, which the reader can learn more about by reviewing the preceding hyperlinked analysis. The indisputable personal rapport between him and Putin during their two days together put an end to concerns about Russia preparing to privilege China over India and thus breathed new life into tri–multipolar processes.
This concept refers to the paradigm of dividing the world into three internally diverse groups: the US-led West’s GoldenBillion; the Sino–RussoEntente; and the informally Indian-led GlobalSouth. These three groups became more prominent after the global systemic transition was unprecedentedly accelerated by Russia’s specialoperation, though they predate that development. Prior to then, however, International Relations could best be described as being in a state of Sino-US bi-multipolarity.
What’s meant by this is that everything was trending towards an unofficial division of the world between China and the US where everyone was pressured to some extent to take one or the other’s side. A return to the pure bipolarity that marked most of the Old Cold War till the Sino-US rapprochement was always unlikely because there were already some strategically autonomous emerging players. Likewise, despite the US, China, and India being the informal leaders of their groups, none have full control over them.
Therefore, this present tripolar system can best be described as tri-multipolar, with the key axis being the Russo-Indo Strategic Partnership since it prevents the American and Chinese superpowers from coming together to revive bi-multipolarity in the event of a New Détente between them. Russia’s perceptible shift towards China since the start of the year, which was detailed in an earlier analysis, caused serious concern in India because it suggested that Moscow was abandoning their shared grand strategic goal.
Before those eight signals were sent, India assumed that Russia would continue cooperating with it to accelerate tri-multipolar processes with a view towards midwifing complex multipolarity, which required neither Russia nor India pivoting towards China or the US respectively. What changed over the past year was the emergence of a pro-BRI policymaking faction in Moscow whose members concluded that Sino-US bi-multipolarity is inevitable so it’s best for Russia to turbocharge China’s superpower trajectory.
The ruling establishment’s balancing/pragmatic faction had a tough time fending off their “friendly rivals”, the latter of whom compellingly argued that their envisaged policies would represent the sweetest revenge against the US after all that their adversary did to Russia since 2022. This explains the signals that Russia sent since the start of the year hinting at an impending pro-Chinese pivot, which finally prompted India to dispatch Modi to Russia to investigate what’s really going on and why.
He considered this to be such a priority for his country’s objective national interests that he broke with tradition by traveling to Russia as the first trip of his third term instead of to a nearby country like usual. The timing also coincided with the annual NATO Summit, thus showing that India is strategically autonomous of the West and impervious to its pressure to curtail ties with Russia. The official US criticism thatfollowed only served to reinforce the aforementioned points.
Russia is always happy to host Modi, even more so than usual due to the timing that was described above as well as the fact that it was his first visit to the country in half a decade, which is why such pomp and circumstance were prepared for him. His three-hour-long informal meeting with Putin at the latter’s dacha was presumably when those two friends candidly discussed the most sensitive aspects of their countries’ strategic partnership and clarified the confusion caused by Russia’s recent pro-Chinese signals.
They clearly worked everything out as proven by their exuberant mood during those informal talks and the official ones the day after. Putin even awarded Modi Russia’s highest civilian honor, the Order of St. Andrew the Apostle, thus showing his country’s pro-BRI faction that he doesn’t approve of their plans to pivot to China. Instead, Russia will continue to pragmatically balance between China and India, thus reaffirming its tri-multipolar grand strategy and putting an end to bi-multipolar speculation.
To be sure, the pro-BRI faction isn’t going away and will continue to make their case that Russia’s best interests are served by acknowledging the supposedly inevitable reversion to Sino-US bi-multipolarity and accordingly turbocharging China’s superpower trajectory, but few in Moscow will listen to them. The most spectacular achievement from Modi’s trip to Russia wasn’t whatever they formally agreed to, but him and Putin informally agreeing to redouble their joint efforts to accelerate tri-multipolarity processes.
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
ABC News Responds after George Stephanopoulos Admits Biden Not Fit to ‘Serve Four More Years’Shortly after his high-stakes interview with Joe Biden last week, ABC News star anchor George Stephanopoulos admitted that the Democrat president is not fit to “serve another four years” as POTUS. Stephanopoulos made the candid admission in a video obtained by TMZ. While walking in New York City, Stephanopoulos said: “I don’t think he can serve four more years.” The …READ MORE
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Canada
Canada Has Become The “Car Theft Capital Of The World”, Interpol Warns
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 09:20 PM
This summer, Interpol ranked Canada among the top 10 worst countries for car thefts out of 137, a “remarkable” achievement given Canada’s data integration with Interpol only began in February, according to the BBC.
After the cars are stolen, they are “either used to carry out other violent crimes, sold domestically to other unsuspecting Canadians, or shipped overseas to be resold,” the BBC wrote.
Since integrating the Canadian Police Information Centre’s stolen vehicle data with INTERPOL’s database in February 2024, over 1,500 stolen Canadian vehicles have been detected globally, Interpol wrote in May.
The RCMP’s database, which tracks around 150,000 stolen vehicles, now helps identify over 200 stolen cars weekly, primarily at international entry ports.
The BBC noted that the Insurance Bureau of Canada declared car theft a “national crisis” after insurers paid out over C$1.5bn in vehicle theft claims last year. Police have issued public bulletins on preventing theft, while some Canadians are installing trackers and private security measures, such as retractable bollards.
Mississauga resident Nauman Khan, who started a bollard-installation business after experiencing theft, reports high demand for his services due to widespread car thefts.
He told the BBC: “It’s been very busy. We had one client whose street had so many home invasions that he’d hired a security guard every night outside his house because he just didn’t feel safe.”
Despite its smaller population, Canada’s car theft rate (262.5 per 100,000) surpasses that of England and Wales (220 per 100,000) and is close to the US rate (300 per 100,000). The rise in thefts is partly due to a pandemic-driven car shortage and a strong international market for certain models, making auto theft lucrative for organized crime. Canada’s port system, which focuses more on imports than exports, also contributes to the problem.
In a press release, INTERPOL Secretary General Jürgen Stock said: “Stolen vehicles are international criminal currency. Not only are they used to traffic drugs, but also as payment to other criminal networks as well as fueling activities from human trafficking to terrorism.
“Sometimes overlooked, a stolen car is not just car theft. It is part of a major revenue stream for transnational organized crime. Through increased data sharing at the global level, we can better screen vehicles at border points, identify trafficking routes and arrest the perpetrators.”
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0851 UP .0013
USA/ YEN 161.59 DOWN 0.070 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2872 UP .0019
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3634 UP .0015 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 15 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 31.02 PTS OR 1.06%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 360.46 PTS OR 2.06%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.93%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 360.46 PTS OR 2.04 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 31.02 PTS OR 1.06%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .93%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 392.03 PTS OR 0.94%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2381.15
silver:$30.98
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.59 DOWN 16 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2584 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2637)
TURKISH LIRA: 32.83 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.083…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 10 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.171% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.386 DOWN 8 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.494 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2418.30
SILVER AT 11;30: 31.49
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 29.83 PTS OR 0.36%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 127.34 PTS OR 0.69%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 64,89 PTS OR 0.86 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 53.58 OR 0.71%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 98.40 PTS OR 0.89% PTS
WTI Oil price 82.53 12EST/
Brent Oil: 85.53 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 87.50 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 85/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4610 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.115 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0866 UP 0.0011 OR 11 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2909 UP 0.0056 OR 56 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.115 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.083
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 15.79 down 280 YEN up 28 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3636 UP 0018 //CDN dollar DOWN 18 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.90
Brent OIL: 85.66
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS pts to 4.196
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS PTS to 4.4407%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 12 PTS AT 4.511
USA dollar index: 104.16 DOWN 57 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 32.84 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 87.00 UP 1 AND 35/100 roubles
GOLD 2,415.60 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.46 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 36.43 PTS OR 0.092%
NASDAQ DOWN 499.32 PTS OR 2.22 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.99 UP 0.14 PTS OR 1.09%
GLD: $223.25 UP 3.89 OR 1.77%
SLV/ $28.68 UP 0.52 OR 1.85%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
MORNING TRADING//CPI
Big miss CPI down -.1%m//m
Consumer Prices ‘Deflated’ Most Since COVID Lockdowns In June; Core Prices Continue To Rise
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 08:39 AM
Who could have seen this coming?
From 3 months ago. We are now headed for an epic perfect storm of Fed cuts just as rents rise again
Quote
zerohedge
@zerohedge
·
Apr 5
this is what the Fed is betting on: OER will keep dropping for the next 18 months due to the huge lag to current rents, and since shelter is 36% of the CPI basket, inflation will soon appear low (even though real rents are rising again… so Fed is two cycles behind now)
·
83.9K Views
From 3 months ago.
We are now headed for an epic perfect storm of Fed cuts just as rents rise again https://t.co/S9eUCo5Bbn
Expectations for more ‘evidence’ of a return to disinflationary trends were high heading into today’s CPI and they were more than satisfied by a 0.1% MoM decline in headline consumer prices in June (below the +0.1% MoM exp) – the biggest MoM drop since May 2020. That pulled the headline YoY CPI down to +3.0%…
Source: Bloomberg
This is the third consecutive ‘miss’ for CPI – prompting calls for July rate-cuts – with 3m and 6m annualized inflation declining…
But July odds remain low still for now…
Headline CPI Breakdown:
The all items index rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending June, a smaller increase than the 3.3- percent increase for the 12 months ending May. The energy index increased 1.0 percent for the 12 months ending June. The food index increased 2.2 percent over the last year. The index for gasoline fell 3.8 percent in June, after declining 3.6 percent in May, more than offsetting an increase in shelter. The energy index fell 2.0 percent over the month, as it did the preceding month. The index for food increased 0.2 percent in June. The food away from home index rose 0.4 percent over the month, while the food at home index increased 0.1 percent
The gasoline index decreased 3.8 percent in June. (Before seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices fell 3.9 percent in June.)
The electricity index decreased 0.7 percent over the month and the fuel oil index decreased 2.4 percent.
The index for natural gas rose 2.4 percent in June.
The energy index increased 1.0 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index fell 2.5 percent over this 12-month span. The index for electricity increased 4.4 percent over the last 12 months and the index for natural gas rose 3.7 percent
A deflation in Energy costs and core goods dominated the data in June…
Both Goods and Services inflation fell on a YoY basis (Goods deflation at its biggest since Feb 2004)
Core CPI also ‘missed’, rising just 0.1% MoM (vs +0.2% exp), dragging the YoY Core CPI down to +3.27% – its lowest since April 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Goods deflation also dominates core prices disinflationary trend…
Core CPI:
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.1 percent in June – the smallest increase in this index since August 2021 – after rising 0.2 percent the preceding month. Indexes which increased in June include shelter, motor vehicle insurance, household furnishings and operations, medical care, and personal care. The indexes for airline fares, used cars and trucks, and communication were among those that decreased over the month.
The shelter index increased 0.2 percent in June. The index for rent rose 0.3 percent over the month, as did the index for owners’ equivalent rent; these were also the smallest increases in these indexes since August 2021. The lodging away from home index decreased 2.0 percent in June, after falling 0.1 percent in May.
The medical care index rose 0.2 percent in June after rising 0.5 percent in May. The index for physicians’ services rose 0.1 percent over the month, as did the index for hospital services. The prescription drugs index was unchanged in June.
The motor vehicle insurance index rose 0.9 percent in June, following a 0.1-percent decrease in May.
The index for household furnishings and operations increased 0.5 percent over the month.
The indexes for personal care, education, recreation, and apparel also increased in June.
The index for airline fares fell 5.0 percent in June, following a 3.6-percent decrease in May.
Over the month, the used cars and trucks index fell 1.5 percent, the communication index decreased 0.2 percent, and the new vehicles index declined 0.2 percent.
Focusing on the housing side of Core CPI, we note that the disinflationary trend is accelerating:
Shelter inflation June 5.16% YoY, down from 5.41% in May and the lowest since May 2022
Rent inflation June 5.07% YoY, down from 5.30% in May and the lowest since April 2022
We do note that Core consumer prices have still not seen a single monthly decline since Bidenomics began.
Core consumer prices are up just under 18% since Bidenomics began (+4.9% per annum) – that is dramatically higher than the 2.0% per annum Americans experienced under Trump…
Core consumer prices have never been higher.
The much-watched SuperCore CPI rose on a MoM basis but declined (back below 5.0%) on a YoY basis (but obviously remains extremely elevated)…
Source: Bloomberg
Transportation Services are seeing prices fall…
Removing auto insurance would cut SuperCore CPI in half… if only we didn’t actually have to pay that!
Finally, we can’t help but get a sense of deja vu all over again here. What if… The Fed cuts (because bad – recession – data), Biden loses (because dementia), and inflation re-accelerates (just like in the 80s)…
Source: Bloomberg
Who do you think gets the blame for the re-inflation? Well, ‘economists’ have already begun claiming Trump’s tariff plan will prompt spiralling higher prices… so we have our answer.
There are no coincidences in Washington.. or Washington-based data.
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Initial Jobless Claims ‘Plunged’ Last Week By Most In 10 Months
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 09:07 AM
Initial jobless claims plunged from near one-year highs to two month lows last week at 222k (well below the 235k expectation). However, on an NSA basis, claims rose once again to their highest since February…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims remain near their highest since Nov 2021, inching down from 1.856mm Americans to 1.852mm Americans last week…
Source: Bloomberg
So initial claims saw the biggest week-over-week drop since Sept 2023?
Makes perfect sense…
end
Consumer slowdown worsens!
(zerohedge)
Pepsi Warns US Snack Demand “Subdued” As Consumer Slowdown Worsens
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 12:25 PM
PepsiCo reported weaker-than-expected revenue growth in the second quarter on Thursday as consumers dialed back snack spending. The junk food giant tempered its full-year outlook on a more challenged consumer. This reflects a broader consumer slowdown trend, particularly impacting working-poor households amid elevated inflation and high interest rates.
CEO Ramon Laguarta wrote in a filing that the company’s North American snack demand was “subdued” during the second quarter and noted sales volumes declined.
On a call with investors, Laguarta said customers across all income brackets are reducing snack spend and trading down to store brands.
“In the US, there is clearly a consumer that is that is more challenged,” the CEO said. This suggests the cumulative impact of several years of price hike has pushed consumers over the edge.
The maker of Lay’s chips and Gatorade reported organic revenue of 1.9% in the second quarter, missing the 2.9% average estimate of analysts tracked by Bloomberg.
The volume of food products sold in the quarter fell 2% from a year earlier, including sizeable drops in Frito-Lay and Quaker Foods businesses in the North American market.
Here’s a snapshot of the second quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Core EPS $2.28 vs. $2.09 y/y, estimate $2.15 (Bloomberg Consensus)
Net revenue $22.50 billion, +0.8% y/y, estimate $22.59 billion
Revenue by region in the quarter:
Frito-Lay North America revenue $5.87 billion, -0.5% y/y, estimate $5.94 billion
Quaker Foods North America revenue $561 million, -18% y/y, estimate $588.2 million
PepsiCo Beverages North America revenue $6.81 billion vs. $6.76 billion y/y, estimate $6.86 billion
Europe revenue $3.52 billion, +2.5% y/y, estimate $3.47 billion
Latin America revenue $3.05 billion, +6.6% y/y, estimate $3.08 billion
Africa, Middle East & South Asia revenue $1.59 billion, +1.5% y/y, estimate $1.55 billion
Asia Pacific, Australia, New Zealand & China revenue $1.10 billion, -2.1% y/y, estimate $1.1 billion
Organic revenue growth by region:
Organic revenue growth +1.9%, estimate +2.89%
Quaker Foods North America organic revenue -18%, estimate -14.1%
PepsiCo Beverages N. America organic revenue change +1%, estimate +1.61%
Latin America organic revenue +2%, estimate +7.04%
Europe organic revenue +7%, estimate +7.77%
Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China Region organic revenue +1% vs. +7% y/y, estimate +3.14%
Africa, Middle East and South Asia organic revenue +12%, estimate +6.28%
Food volumes:
Total convenient foods volume -2%
Frito-Lay North America volume -4%
Quaker Foods North America volume -17%
Latin America convenient foods volume -6%
Europe convenient foods volume +5%
Africa, Middle East and South Asia convenient foods volume +1%
Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China region convenient foods volume -1%
Beverages:
PepsiCo Beverages North America volume -3%
Latin America beverages volume +2%
Europe beverages volume +1%
Africa, Middle East and South Asia beverages volume +2%
Asia Pacific, Australia and New Zealand and China Region beverages volume +1%
EPS $2.23 vs. $1.99 y/y, estimate $2.14
For the full-year outlook, forecasts were tempered. Execs now expect organic revenue growth of around 4% for the year compared with “at least 4%” in previous forecasts.
Sees organic revenue +4%, saw at least +4%, estimate +3.91%
Still sees core EPS at least $8.15, estimate $8.16
Shares of PepsiCo dropped as much as 3.4% but have since clawed back some losses. Prices earlier were at the lowest intraday level since October. The stock has fallen 4% year-to-date.
For a more in-depth analysis of PepsiCo’s earnings, Bonnie Herzog from Goldman offers her take:
PEP delivered mixed Q2 results, with softer than expected organic revenue growth that was more than offset by strong gross margin expansion, leading to a nice EPS beat. Given the slightly softer than expected topline, mgmt updated its FY24 organic sales growth guidance range to ~4% (vs prior of at least 4%) – which we believe was broadly anticipated based on conversations with investors ahead of the print, and should be viewed as more realistic given the tough first half. Mgmt’s updated guidance implies a step up in 2H organic sales growth to ~5.5% (vs ~2.5% in 1H), although the y/y compares in 2H are easier (particularly on vols) – which gives us confidence that this should be doable especially considering mgmt’s initiatives to reaccelerate growth. Overall, we expect the stock to trade down modestly today, but are optimistic that trends should improve in the back half – and therefore maintain our Buy rating.
Meanwhile, Bernstein analysts told clients that these results signify an “abrupt end to the strong period of growth enjoyed during the Covid-19 era.”
Here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying about the second-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):
JPMorgan (neutral)
“While the setup into the print was negative and investors we spoke seemed to be expecting a weak top line, the organic sales growth performance came in worse than anticipated in key regions, in particular in FLNA and Latin America,” analyst Andrea Teixeira writes
Lowered organic sales annual guidance now seems “doable,” as year-over-year comparisons ease, but Teixeira thinks investors will remain concerned with volume declines in key divisions
“We are confident in PEP’s ability to meet the EPS number with ample productivity opportunities across the P&L, but we believe the key driver for the stock (and Staples as whole) is volume growth which remains challenging,” she adds
Bernstein (market perform)
2Q report and slightly lowered annual guidance organic growth target are unlikely to be the “clearing event that long-term shareholders were looking for,” and worries of further cuts probably persist throught 3Q, writes analyst Callum Elliott
Expects some questions about “need to right-size” some of the pricing (adjust prices lower) given recent trade-down to private label and market share losses for Frito
Separately, Goldman’s Natasha de la Grense provided clients this AM additional color on the mounting pressures impacting consumers:
We hosted a “subprime consumer” field trip in the US earlier this week, including meetings with FICO, Dollar General, QuickChek and Circle K. The key takeaways are that credit card delinquency rates are rising (now above long-run averages) with a decline in average FICO scores across the past year due to the subprime category (lower income). Companies called out accelerating trade down from national brands to private label, increased pomo activity and stable traffic trends at discount store. The risk from here is that a slowing labor market would disproportionately weigh on spending for lower income households.
A number of mega corps have been warning about the consumer slowdown, earlier this week, shares of consumer products company Helen of Troy crashed after missing earnings expectations and slashed its full-year outlook on “softer consumer demand” and “shifts in consumer spending.”
We’ve detailed for months about the onset of a consumer slowdown:
With today’s deflationary June CPI print, mounting economic uncertainties are leading rate traders to bet that the first interest rate cuts could occur as early as September.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
SHOULD BE INTERESTING
(zerohedge)
House Oversight Subpoenas Top Biden Handlers To Find Out Who’s Running The Country
WEDNESDAY, JUL 10, 2024 – 08:00 PM
The House Oversight Committee subpoenaed three top White House aides on Wednesday, and has demanded that they sit for depositions concerning President Joe Biden’s health – and who’s actually running the country.
As Axios reports, Oversight chair James Comer (R-KY) subpoenaed First Lady Jill Biden’s top aide Anthony Bernal, deputy chief of staff Annie Tomasini, and senior adviser Ashley Williams, who the outlet described as “low-profile but very influential” inside the White House.
According to Wednesday letters, Comer cites Bernal and Tomasini’s access to the first family’s residence – which White House residence staff found ‘unusual,’ as ‘political staffers often don’t have such access.’
According to one former Biden aide, these three employees – Annie Tomasini, Anthony Bernal, and Ashley Williams – have created “a protective bubble around” President Biden and he is “staffed so closely that he’s lost all independence.” –House Oversight Committee
Comer also writes that the committee is “concerned” that each official is “one of several White House staffers who have taken it upon themselves to run the country while the President cannot.”
In his letter to Bernal — whose influence extends well beyond the first lady’s office — Comer wrote: The “Committee seeks to understand the extent of Mr. Bernal’s influence over the President and his knowledge of whether the President is personally discharging the duties of his office.” -Axios
Tomasini, a close friend of the Biden family, maintained close relations with Hunter throughout the Obama administration – sometimes referring to him as her “brother,” and often ending emails with “LY” (Love You), according to emails dating from 2010 to 2016.
I am issuing subpoenas today for White House staff Annie Tomasini, Anthony Bernal, and Ashley Williams to appear for depositions. The White House has shielded these three key aides from testifying about President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents and now we’ve learned through reporting these same aides are also seeking to cover up President Biden’s declining cognitive state inside the White House. Joe Biden’s staff are trying to hide the truth from the American people.
“The White House has shielded three key aides from testifying about President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents and now we’ve learned through reporting these same aides are also seeking to cover up President Biden’s declining cognitive state inside the White House. President Biden is clearly unfit for office, yet his staff are trying to hide the truth from the American people. Key White House staff must come before our committee so we can provide the transparency and accountability that Americans deserve,” said Comer in a statement.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
NEWT GINGRICH
END
SWAMP NEWS
KING REPORT
The King Report July 11, 2024 Issue 5784
Independent View of the News
@nytimes Breaking News: Nancy Pelosi suggested that President Biden should reconsider his decision to stay in the race... https://t.co/oqoIsVa0Ah
Because Clooney is an Obama BFF and they vacation together, pundits concluded that Barack Hussein Obama has signaled to his idolators that Joe should go. Hunter and Jill will not be pleased.
Clooney got slammed by Biden supporters for being a turncoat. GOP types slammed Georgie for being part of the conspiracy to conceal The Big Guy’s mental condition.
@TheBabylonBee: In New ‘Ocean’s 14’, George Clooney Pulls Off $30 Million Heist by Tricking People into Giving Money to Politician Before Revealing He’s Dementedhttps://t.co/BnTnp3xeLr
Comedian/TV-Radio Host @jimmyfailla: George Clooney is not a hero for admitting that Biden was cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs at a Fundraiser THREE weeks ago. He’s a scumbag for imperiling our country and trying to hide it from the world until he no longer could.
Why on Wednesday did Pelosi turn on Joe after most Dems moved to support Biden on Tuesday?
The polling has turned horrendous for The Big Guy and Dems. Secondly, Biden botched his big NATO speech. Joe did his angry man routine for part of the speech. This does not play well with the biggest swing voter group – suburban women. It neutralizes this swing group’s irritation with Trump.
@AnnCoulter: Why does Biden think shouting proves he doesn’t have dementia?
Biden slurred words during his NATO speech. However, the biggest gaffes occurred near the end when Joe presented the Presidential Medal of Freedom to retiring Secretary of NATO Stoltenberg.
Joe, again, read an instruction from the Teleprompter; and when the Secretary of NATO approached Biden, Joe stayed transfixed on his Teleprompter, creating an awkward scene.
Biden, 81, glares into the teleprompter and almost makes disastrous slip-up during NATO speech to world leaders trying to prove he is fit to serve The president, visibly reading from the teleprompter, read a three-word instruction to himself… ‘Ask the military aide,’ Biden said while preparing to award Stoltenberg the nation’s highest civilian honor… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13617635/joe-biden-nato-speech-teleprompter.html?s=02
Wise guys have a blast with this clip: @roaming_rn: Oh boy… (Biden to NATO Sec.) “I realize after _____ing your wife. “ “I personally ask you to extend your service….laughs……… Forgive me?” What did Joe just say he was doing to his wife?https://x.com/roaming_rn/status/1810808789790015859
@JSweetLI: Internal Democrat polling post-debate has Biden down DOUBLE digits in swing districts NY-17 (R-Lawler) and NY-19 (R-Molinaro), and down a point in NY-22 (R-Williams)– all districts Biden carried in 2020, per party source.The three competitive upstate/suburban districts are considered part of the suburban NY “bellwether” districts.
The Big Guy is down about 12 points to Trump from where he and Donald were in July 2020.
Polls have greatly underestimated Trump. In 2020, Biden supported double-digit leads during the final two months of the campaign. Biden ultimately won by 4.5 percentage points; but that was only after the mysterious massive mail-in vote dump that occurred in the wee hours of the day after the election.
If Trump is tracking 12 points higher than The Big Guy in July 2024, his margin is probably much larger.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted September 30 – October 1 (after the presidential debate, but before Trump’s announcement of his COVID-19 diagnosis) has Biden leading 53%–39%. On October 7, a CNN poll showed Biden leading 57%–41%, and a week later, Opinium Research/The Guardian showed him leading 57%–40%. As of October 13, Biden consistently led in poll averages by several or more points for over 100 days, as compared to the last four presidential elections. Biden led 54%–42% in a CNN poll of October 28…https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden_2020_presidential_campaign
@MicaSoellnerDC: Former CBC (Congressional Black Caucus) Chair Joyce Beatty says last night’s meeting was more of a listening session, rather than for strategy…Some members purposefully skipped because they were so irritated by the CBC’s “rah rah” call with Biden Monday night that didn’t address the issue… avibe check on how House Dems are handling questions about Biden today, I just asked one CBC member if Biden came up in their meeting and they responded “I don’t remember.”
@TheSourceCNN: Democratic Senator Michael Bennet tells @kaitlancollins that President Biden cannot win the 2024 election. Watch their conversation:https://t.co/XrDINESLVy
Things for the Big Guy did not go well at NATO on day 2 or during a campaign appearance.
@charliekirk11: At a campaign stop with Union leaders, Joe Biden randomly grabs the mic and starts talking about DEI just moments before the camera spins wildly out of frame and the feed abruptly cuts off. Did campaign staffers panic the moment Joe Biden went off script? https://t.co/kLbao349s4
@JacquiHeinrich: Biden campaign confirms to FOX: Senior Biden advisers — Mike Donilon, Steve Ricchetti, and Biden Campaign Chair Jen O’Malley Dillon — will brief Senate Dems at the DSCC tomorrow(Thursday)afternoon
@AndrewDesiderio: A Democratic senator, unprompted, to me just now about this meeting tomorrow (Thursday): “A waste of everyone’s time if Biden can’t even come make the case himself.”
Powell issued remarks on Wednesday that were more dovish than his remarks on Tuesday.
Powell Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to House Financial Services Committee Highlights We have a good ways to go on balance sheet runoff but significant progress made Dual Mandate has served us well US debt is on an unsustainable path Will be looking at neutral rate in review later this year Current Fed policy is restrictive (with stocks at all-time highs?!?) Independent central bank essential for economic stability (how about independent of Wall St?) We want to be more confident about inflation Fed has made a lot of progress on inflation We don’t consider political factors when setting rates You don’t want to wait until inflation gets down to 2% – DJ 10:19 ET Fed Doesn’t Need Inflation to Fall Below 2% Before Rate Cut – BBG 11:20 ET Still may be housing shortage once Fed lowers rates Job Not Done on Inflation but Fed Needs to Be More Mindful of Labor Market – DJ 11:40 ET Labor Market Has Cooled ‘Pretty Significantly” – BBG 11:55 ET Government Spending Is Part of the Inflation Story – DJ 12:03 ET Powell Says No When Asked If He’s Seen Biden Cognitive Decline – BBG 12:18 ET Have NOT had calls or meetings with Biden since 2022
@GordonJohnson19 (On Powell saying won’t wait for 2% to cut rates) : But you do want to wait until inflation gets to 7% to hike! These people are CRUSHING those of us who aren’t 10%-ers!
ESUs soared on Powell’s dovish comments. USUs and Fangs rallied modestly; gold soared early.
ESUs traded modestly high but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke higher near 4 ET. ESUs move methodically higher until they staged a retreat at 8:10 ET. After a 6-handle retrenchment, ESUs jumped 10 handles to 5650.25 at 10:13 ET. ESUs then fell 10 handles ahead of Powell.
After Powell’s dovish remarks, ESUs went parabolic and took ESUs to a daily high of 5690.50 at 16 ET.
@TripleNetInvest: A prime 41 story office tower in Manhattan has sold for $173M less than what it sold for in 2015… Canadian entrepreneur Carlo Bellini acquired 180 Maiden Lane in the Financial District for $297M. The building was previously financed by Blackstone in 2015 when Clarion Partners and MHP acquired the building for $470M. Manhattan’s office meltdown has gone from concerning to apocalyptic with little end in sight…
Costco Raises Annual Membership Fee for First Time Since 2017 – BBG For most memberships to $65 a year from $60 [8.33%] (Costco is not waiting for 2% either, Jerome!)
Positive aspects of previous session The US stock bubble inflated greatly on Powell’s dovishness
Negative aspects of previous session Powell has fomented a monstrous US equity bubble that will inflict hardships on beaucoup people Bonds only rallied modestly despite solid 10-yr auction; Fangs lagged other equities
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are stocks pricing in a GOP November sweep? Did someone have inside info about June CPI
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5618.58 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5635.39; 5586.44
@ChadPergram: House approves election security act, restricting voting to U.S. citizens. The vote was 221-198. (5 Dems pro votes; now Schumer will try to kill bill, so Dems don’t have to go on the record.)
@AndrewDesiderio: New Schumer statement amid reports that he told donors he’s open to dumping Biden: “As I have made clear repeatedly publicly and privately, I support President Biden and remain committed to ensuring Donald Trump is defeated in November.” (Nondenial denial word salad)
Dem Rep Clyburn went from “Ridin’ with Biden” on Tuesday to ‘It’s up to Joe’ on Wednesday night.
@themarketswork: Biden’s outside of his 4-hour safety window (NATO dinner): “The allies in this room not only share a common language. Don’t share a common language. We do! Not share a common border. But we are neighbors. We’re neighbors.”https://x.com/themarketswork/status/1811196195559325842
‘Everything is frozen’: Donors hold back dollars amid fallout over Biden’s candidacy Organizers for at least one Chicago fundraiser scheduled during the Democratic National Convention have decided to not to proceed with the mid-August event, a source with knowledge of the discussions told CNN… https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/10/politics/chicago-donors-fundraiser-convention/index.html
CNN: “The president and his team are done talking about it… Biden is staying in the race.”
As of Wednesday night, it’s the Bidens, the CBC, most Hispanic Dems, and Dem Reps in deep blue (“safe”) districts versus the rest of the Democratic Party – and apparently the regime media. Team needs to hang on until the Democratic Convention (Aug 19-22). Then, it would be too late for a replacement.
Which Dem consiglieri is going to give the Frankie Pentangeli directive to The Big Guy/Jill/Hunter?
Dem solons are in such a panic that they are forgetting the ostensible reason that they rigged their 2020 Presidential Campaign for Biden: Joe attracts the working class, union workers, Catholics, etc. Kamala Harris is now doing worse in the polls than Biden. Perhaps Joe’s core supporters don’t care for Kamala.
House Oversight Chair @RepJamesComer: I am issuing subpoenas today for White House staff Annie Tomasini, Anthony Bernal, and Ashley Williams to appear for depositions. (Reputedly Joe’s handlers) The White House has shielded these three key aides from testifying about President Biden’s mishandling of classified documents and now we’ve learned through reporting these same aides are also seeking to cover up President Biden’s declining cognitive state inside the White House. Joe Biden’s staff are trying to hide the truth from the American people. @GOPoversight will deliver the transparency and accountability Americans deserve. (What POTUS duties are they doing for Joe?) https://x.com/GOPoversight/status/1811135560519426109
@albamonica: @NBCNews anchor Lester Holt will sit down with President Biden for an exclusive one-on-one interview on Monday in Austin, Texas. The full interview will air in its entirety during a primetime special that evening at 9 p.m. ET/8 p.m. CT. on NBC. (In other words, it will not be LIVE!)
@GlobalMktObserv: THIS HAS NEVER BEEN SEEN BEFORE: 3-month correlation between S&P 500 returns and the number of S&P 500 stocks advancing dropped to the LOWEST on record. It means that the number of stocks driving gains is the smallest EVER. Notably, 40% of S&P 500 stocks are down year-to-date. https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/1810758320346780033
Near 14:00 ET, TSLA was up 44% over the last 10 trading sessions. No bubble, right Jerome?
Today – Numerous traders and pundits believe a big part of the equity surge yesterday was due to someone having inside information about the June CPI Report, including Powell.
Obviously if June CPI is in line or higher than expected, stocks will suffer. However, due to Powell’s dovishness, traders believe that the US stock bubble will inflate further, and Powell will disregard Fed precedence (no action 6 months before an election unless a big problem) and cut rates in September.
Powell is in a box. If he cuts rates before the election without a solid reason, he looks political; and Trump will DK him. If Powell legitimately needs to cut rates in September because the US falls into recession, Biden and any Dem will be toast – and Trump will still DK Jerome!
Extra credit question: What happens if the US equity bubble inflates more but stocks crash before Nov.?
The Big Guy will hold a ‘Big Boy Press Conference’ this evening at 17:30 ET, well before Joe’s 20:00 ET bedtime. If the media is hard on Joe, you can surmise that ‘they’ want Joe to go.
NQUs are -35.00; ESUs are -7.00; USUs are -5/32 at 20:55 ET.
Expected econ data: June CPI 0.1% m/m 3.1% y/y, Core 0.2@ m/m & 3.4% y/y; Initial Jobless Claims 235k, Continuing Claims 1.864m; June Budget -$76.0B; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 11:15 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Alberto Musalem 13:00 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5342; 100-day MA: 5233; 150-day MA: 5087; 200-day MA: 4905 DJIA 50-day MA: 39.035; 100-day MA: 38,913; 150-day MA: 38,484; 200-day MA: 37,365 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5633.91 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5256.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5513.00 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5599.18 triggers a sell signal
@MaryVought: Biden campaign spending money on anti-Project2025 ads in MEXICO. Hmmmmm https://t.co/74rflohVmP (Got to procure those illegal mail-in votes!)
@CollinRugg: Nancy Pelosi loses her cool on ABC reporter Rachel Scott after being asked if President Biden will be the Democrat nominee. Scott: Do you believe that him waiting so long to make this decision… Pelosi: I’m not making any comments in the hallway about the fate of our nation. Scott: Are you concerned whether or not he can win in November? Pelosi: I think he can win November. Scott: Do you think he should run for reelection? Pelosi: Am I speaking English to you? I’m not gonna be making any statements about any of that right now in the hallway. The democratic party is crumbling. (By Dem and MSM standards, Nan the Trader is a racist misogynist.)
@alx: Bitter old white Democrat woman implies black female reporter can’t understand English.
The Big Guy got caught in yet another lie. Biden claimed that he could NOT reach Texas Governor Abbott or Lt. Governor Dan Patrick. Both have called out The Big Guy for his lies.
@DanPatrick: I am disappointed that President Biden is turning Hurricane Beryl into a political issue. We had a cordial call today that ended up with him granting my request for a major disaster declaration. But that’s not good enough for him. He is falsely accusing me that I was not reachable. He obviously did not know his own employees from FEMA were side-by-side with me for 3 days!… I even took a photo with them!…https://x.com/DanPatrick/status/1810813210515366156
@DanPatrick: 𝐁𝐢𝐝𝐞𝐧’𝐬 𝐇𝐮𝐫𝐫𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐞 𝐇𝐨𝐚𝐱 – Last night, the @HoustonChron reporter, who wrote the story with Biden’s lie, that he couldn’t find me or Gov. Abbott, asked for the state call log of my conversation with the president. We sent them the log. The log showed only a 3 minute call from President Biden to @TDEM @ChiefKidd . Chief Kidd was sitting next to me as we waited for the president’s call. I spoke to the president from 11:49 a.m. to 11:52 a.m. on Chief Kidd’s phone. The reason they called Chief Kidd was puzzling to me since they had just been given my cell phone number… Gov. Abbott did not hear from the president during Hurricane Beryl either. Gov. Abbott tweeted that the president has his phone number and called him as recently as Memorial Day. But, he did not call Abbott either during the hurricane… https://x.com/DanPatrick/status/1811018466163393022
Biden admin whistleblowers claim ‘billions of taxpayer dollars’ used by gov contractor to traffic children on the border – The Biden administration’s Office of Refugee Resettlement failed to vet sponsors responsible for caring for unaccompanied children apprehended crossing the border, whistleblowers told Senators Tuesday… https://t.co/Dmzy8VxqND
@FoxNews: Sacramento city attorney reportedly threatened to fine Target store for reporting theft crimes https://t.co/iro8Bgqzpu
@WallStreetSilv: “My husband loves it when I go to a Democratic city. I can’t go shopping because all the stores are closed.”
@stevenvoiceover: CNN Producer Caught on Hot Mic Dealing With (Dem Rep) Maxine Water’s Wig Problem (Anchor laughing hysterically as Mad Max fidgets with her hair hat. Get a chinstrap on that thing!) https://t.co/sRmL5imKuX
The Big Guy and many Dems are now objects of national ridicule. An old political adage says, ‘you can recover from most negative developments or surprises; but you cannot overcome being an object of ridicule or scorn.’ Gerald Ford (bumbling & inane comments), Jimmy Carter (attacked by rabbit and ‘malaise speech’, etc.), Dukakis in the tank, George Bush I (being wimpy and breaking ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ pledge), Hillary for umpteen things, and now The Big Guy and his enablers.
“Partisan Mischief”: North Carolina Democrats Vote to Block Third-Party Candidates from Ballots (Who’s trying to destroy democracy in the USA?) https://t.co/aLftIYHQHk
@TrumpDailyPosts: Crazy Nancy Pelosi is more of a cognitive mess than Sleepy Crooked Joe. She also suffers from a terminal case of TDS, Trump Derangement Syndrome. She is a total nut job, who impeached me TWICE, and lost. Now I see her going around, barely, and saying that I am a threat to Democracy. No, this is just Radical Left Democrat Disinformation, which is all that they’re good at. She’s trying to convince anyone that will listen that Crooked Joe is a mental giant, and in great form, which everyone knows, he is not. She’s just continuing the LIE to the American People. Crazy Nancy is a threat to Democracy, a very sick one… DJT Donald Trump Truth Social 01:29 PM EST 07/10/24
AOC introduced articles of impeachment against SCOTUS Justices Alito and Thomas for taking gifts.
Best quip about Clooney torpedoing Biden that we saw: “Clooney says Biden is looney.”
harveyorganblog.com 
