GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $0.25 TO $2415.90
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.65 TO $30.92
Democracy is two wolves and a lamb voting on what to have for lunch. Liberty is a well-armed lamb contesting the vote.” — Benjamin Franklin
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2411.50
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.75
Bitcoin morning price:$57,216 DOWN 349 DOLLARS. bankers doing a good job destroying the value of bitcoin
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $58,048 UP 483 dollars//
Platinum price closing DOWN $3.10 TO $1001.45
Palladium price; DOWN $22.05 AT $976.10
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 36 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//august to august
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 12 Jul 2024 06:44:53 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3287.23 DOWN 3.81 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,305.30 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//MAY 20 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1,857.04 DOWN 12.31 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,211.25 DOWN 10.46 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.248.89 EUROS PER OZ//APRIL 16//.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,415.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/11/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/15/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL 18
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 13
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 10
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 3 8
905 C ADM 10 4
TOTAL: 37 37
MONTH TO DATE: 2,760
JPMorgan stopped 0/37
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 37 NOTICES FOR 3700 OZ or 0.1150 TONNES
total notices so far: 2760 contracts for 276,000 Oz (8.5847 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 127 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.635 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5955 for 29.755 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 65 CENTS AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY LOWERS TO 435.625 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 435.625 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1166 CONTRACTS TO 165,180 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.72 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN OF 1948 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 516 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 516 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.72) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 181 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE OF $0.72.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 715 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 255,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 30.340 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 516 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL removed 67 CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAYS, total 9147 contracts: OR 45.735 MILLION OZ (1016 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 45.735 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 45.735 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1166 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 715 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 255,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 30.340 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 18 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 516 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (516) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 127 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.635 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 28,226 OI CONTRACTS TO 558,833 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1866 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (28,226 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $43.05 IN PRICE/THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3500 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 8.6818 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $43.05 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 30,986 OI CONTRACTS (96.38 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2760 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 558,833
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 30,986 CONTRACTS WITH 28,226 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2760 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 30,986 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 43,273 CONTRACTS,,(4TH DAY IN A ROW OF THESE HUMONGOUS ISSUANCES)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2760 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 28,226 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 30,986 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3500 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 8.6818 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 43,273 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 39,699 CONTRACTS OR 3,969,900 OZ OR 123.48 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4411 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 123.48 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 123.48 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.47% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 123.48 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 1166 CONTRACTS OI TO 165,237 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 715 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 715 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 715 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1233 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 715 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1881 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 9.740 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE $0.72 GAIN IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 461.05 PTS OR 2.59% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1003.34 OR 2.45%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.89%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2524 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2702/ Oil UP TO 83.32dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.85/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 28,226 CONTRACTS TO 558,833 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $43.05 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURSDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2760 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 2760 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2760 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 30,986 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2760 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 28,226 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $43.05/THURSDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WAS ANOTHER MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 43,273 CONTRACTS. (4TH DAY IN A ROW OF THIS TYPE OF MEGA ISSUANCE) MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. TODAY’S ISSUANCE WAS ANOTHER WHOPPER.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (8.6818 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 8.6818 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $43.05 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A MEGA MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 32,853 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON THUTSSDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 102.186 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 8.6818 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 8.6818 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $43.05
WE HAVE REMOVED 1866 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 30,986 CONTRACTS OR 3,098,600 OZ (96.38 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 411,105 contracts//huge
//speculators have left the gold arena
JULY 12 JULY GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JULY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 37 notice(s) 3700 OZ 0.1150 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 31 contracts 3100 OZ 0.0964 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2760 notices 276,000 oz 8.5847 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS NIL
Adjustment 1 DEALER TO CUSTOMER BRINKS: 25,174.233 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 68 contracts having GAINED 34 contracts. We had 1 notices filed on Thursday so we gained 35 contracts or an additional 3500 oz will stand at the comex (0.1088 tonnes)
AUGUST lost 6187 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 286,158 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 86 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 317.
OCTOBER GAINED 2776 CONTRACTS UP TO 33,256 CONTRACTS
We had 37 contracts filed for today representing 3700 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 37 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2760) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 68( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (37 x 100 oz per contract( equals 279,100 OZ OR 8.6818 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (2760 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (68 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (37) x 100 oz which equals 279,100 oz (8.6818TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 8.5723 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,679,117.861 oz 52.22 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,699,809.610 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,790,633.975 ( 242.32 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,909,175.635 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,111,516oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.20 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 12/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 614,539.753oz ASAHI Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2,411,830.632 oz Brinks CNT JPMorgan |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 127 CONTRACT(S) (.635 million OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 113 contracts (0.565 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 5955 Contracts (29.775 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 customer deposits:
i)Into Brinks 1,214,181.542 oz
ii) Into CNT 600,903.390 oz
iii) Into JPMorgan: 596,745.700 oz
total customer deposit 2,411,830.632 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 130.184million oz/302,953million or 43.52%
adjustment: 1 dealer to customer
i) CNT 9977.780 oz
i) into eligible 3342,544.630 oz acct error
customer withdrawals: 2
i) out of Delaware 596,486.241 oz
ii) out of Ashai: 596,745.700 oz
iii) Out of Delaware 12,794.053 0z
iv) Out of HSBC 90,183.930 oz
total withdrawal: 614m539.753 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.350 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 302.943
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 240 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 24 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 75 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED 51 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 255,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE.
AUG, SAW A LOSS OF 75 CONTRACTS TO 1274
SEPT SAW A GAIN OF 394 CONTRACTS TO 132,409
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 127 for 0.635 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 84,952 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5955 x 5,000 oz = 29.775 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( 240) and the number of notices served upon today 127 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 5955 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (240)x number of notices served upon today minus (127)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 30.340 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 30.340 million oz.
There are 69.360 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 835.09 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 435.625 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
Is It Time To Get Bullish On Platinum?
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 10:20 PM
Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,
Is now a good time to get bullish on platinum?
I’ve written a lot about the fact that silver appears to be underpriced given both technical factors and the supply and demand dynamics.
Platinum may be even more undervalued.
The current platinum price is hovering around $1,000 an ounce. To put that into perspective, platinum hit an all-time high of $2,213 an ounce in March 2008. This was higher than the record price gold hit in 2011.
One of the factors driving that 2008 record was a severe supply shortage due to a power crisis and labor strikes in South Africa, the world’s leading platinum producer.
Before 2011, platinum was generally more expensive than gold. In 2015, this historical trend reversed with the spread between gold and platinum growing wider.
But over the last two years, platinum has shown signs of life. In 2023, the platinum price was up a healthy 12.5 percent. So far this year, the metal has charted modest gains of about 3.8 percent.
Platinum has a long way to go to regain its historic parity with gold, but supply and demand dynamics indicate there is plenty of room for platinum to push higher.
Like silver, we’re seeing significant supply deficits in the platinum market. In 2023, there was a market deficit of over 100 million ounces, according to the World Platinum Investment Council. This was due to a combination of increasing demand and lagging mine output.
The supply shortfall continued into the first quarter of 2024.
According to the WPIC, total platinum supply in Q1 was the second lowest since the organization started tracking data.
As a result, the market deficit in Q1 came in at 369,000 ounces.
Platinum is an important component in automobile catalytic converters. Auto demand for the metal hit a 7-year high in Q1 and that pace is expected to continue through the rest of the year.
A rotation from electric vehicles to hybrids is boosting demand for platinum in the auto sector, according to the WPIC.
“Platinum demand is bolstered by stricter emissions legislation, increased hybrid vehicles that contain an internal combustion engine, and growth in the substitution of platinum for palladium. It is important to note that once platinum is substituted for palladium in specific vehicle platforms, this demand for platinum is likely to remain constant throughout the platform’s seven-year lifecycle, even if platinum prices rise to, or exceed, those of palladium for an extended period.”
Platinum jewelry demand also saw a healthy increase in the first quarter, rising by 5 percent year-on-year, driven by a 53 percent increase in Indian jewelry buying.
Overall industrial demand fell slightly from a record in 2023 but remained 17 percent above the pre-COVID average.
Investment demand is also on a positive track upward this year, supported by coin and bar purchases in China.
According to the WPIC, China’s retail investment in platinum is forecast to exhibit double-digit growth this year, driven by perceptions of the metal being undervalued relative to gold.
There is also a growing demand for platinum in the fast-growing hydrogen power sector.
“We are now seeing signs that platinum’s role in the hydrogen economy is gaining momentum, with our forecast for 2024 indicating a significant increase in demand to meaningful levels. This year will also witness the allocation and deployment of over US$300 billion in tax incentives and subsidies from various governments around the world, potentially further accelerating hydrogen’s demand for platinum,” WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said.
Looking ahead, the WPIC projects supply will remain flat even with the weak levels seen last year. Mine supply is expected to fall by about 3 percent offset somewhat by a rebound in recycling. But with demand expected to come in at a “robust” 7.6 million ounces, the WPIC projects a 476,000-ounce market deficit.
“For the second consecutive year, the platinum market will post a meaningful deficit underscored by platinum’s sustained demand and supply vulnerability amidst global economic challenges. While we currently forecast a deficit of 476 koz, it is worth mentioning that a revision to the bar and coin investment series, based on new field research and information, could mean this deficit is potentially deeper,” Raymond said.
Above-ground stocks are forecast to decline for the second straight year, falling another 12 percent. This would mark a 4-year low in above-ground platinum supply.
Meanwhile, China is set to launch its first platinum futures contracts.
According to the South China Morning Post, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) “will be the first exchange to allow delivery against its contracts of platinum and palladium in a form used by the main consumers, including carmakers and other industrial sectors, and the contracts may also support platinum investment demand in China.”
According to the report, investors will be able to take delivery of platinum in both ingots and “sponge” – pure metal in powder form.
“The ability to take delivery of sponge could be transformative for industrial users of PGMs, as well as carmakers, as this is the main form typically used for their manufacturing purposes,” the WPIC said.
According to a WPIC statement, the GFEX futures will allow platinum jewelry and investment product fabricators to hedge price risk. This could reduce premiums and reduce the discount on platinum buyback, making platinum a more attractive investment.
It remains to be seen whether platinum will regain the price parity with gold we saw before the mid-2010s, but given the supply and demand dynamics, it is reasonable to be bullish on platinum in the near to mid-term. Given the price disparity with gold, this may signal a buying opportunity.
end
Gold-Silver Ratio Could Indicate The Early Stages Of A Silver Breakout
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,
Two months ago, the gold-silver ratio broke an important support level, indicating the white metal could be in the early stages of closing its gap with gold.
The gold-silver ratio indicates how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold given the spot price of both metals. In other words, it tells you the price of gold in ounces of silver.
The current gold-silver ratio is hovering just about 76-1. That means it takes 76 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold.
The ratio remains historically high, meaning that silver is underpriced compared to gold, but there is some indication the trend is in the early stages of reversing.
In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1. When the gold-silver ratio gets far above the high end of that historical average, it tends to return to the mean with a vengeance.
For instance, in 2020, the gold-silver ratio set a record of 123-1 as Covid hysteria gripped the world and then plunged to around 60-1 as central banks around the world cranked up the money creation machine to cope with governments shutting down economies.
In another example of this snap-back, the gold-silver ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 after rising to over 80-1 during the money creation of the Great Recession in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
Three months ago, the gold-silver ratio climbed as high as 87-1. Two months ago, the ratio fell to around 73-1, below the 13-year support level. It briefly rallied, climbing back to 80-1, but it failed to regain 13-year support before dipping over the last five days to the current level.
Given that the scenario still looks bullish for gold with the likelihood of a rate hike this fall increasing, silver could be set up for a significant bull run.
Keep in mind that silver historically outperforms gold in a gold bull market. For instance, gold charted a gain of around 40 percent during the pandemic. Meanwhile, silver was up a whopping 141 percent!
The recent breakdown of the support level in the gold-silver ratio takes on more significance given the fundamentals. Demand for the metal is at record levels while supply has flatlined.
Silver demand is expected to hit 1.2 billion ounces this year. That would rank as the second-highest annual silver demand on record. Given the supply outlook, this level of demand would create a structural market deficit of 176 million ounces. That would be the fourth consecutive year of demand outstripping supply, cutting further into global silver reserves.
The structural deficit in 2023 came in at 184.3 million ounces.
Demand will likely increase in the years ahead due to the solar energy market. Not only is the demand for silver panels growing, but the amount of silver used in each panel is also increasing.
According to a research paper by scientists at the University of New South Wales, solar manufacturers will likely require over 20 percent of the current annual silver supply by 2027. By 2050, solar panel production will use approximately 85–98 percent of the current global silver reserves.
Given both the supply and demand fundamentals and the technical breakdown in the gold-silver ratio, this may be an outstanding time to buy silver in the early stages of a bull run.
END
Biden’s Student Loan Plan “SAVE” Will Cost $230 Billion
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 03:25 PM
As student loan debt in America swells to a staggering $1.7 trillion, President Joe Biden’s new SAVE plan could actually cost $230 billion, a CBO report finds. This is not only a classic case of robbing Peter to pay Paul — it will bring more inflation, make college more expensive and give the federal government unprecedented control over higher education.
The following article was originally published by the Mises Institute. The opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of Peter Schiff or SchiffGold.
The federal student debt loan amount is $1.7 trillion. This debt portfolio is an installment personal loan. Payments occur monthly. Active students have loan totals not due this year. We have no idea how much of the total will be repaid.
The Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) plan is President Joe Biden and Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona’s reply to the Supreme Court, who ruled the administration’s original sweeping forgiveness program was unconstitutional. The SAVE plan was announced in August 2023. The White House bulletin included a table of payment amounts, indexed by the number of dependents and size of loan.
It is the greatest gift for all income-dependent student-debt payoff plans. It is a Trojan horse for the state to control higher education.
The “original” student loan program from the sixties repaid loans plus interest in a straightforward installment-style plan. A $7,500 loan might take ten years to fulfill. Larger loans received longer terms.
The federal government’s interjection into debt financing came with the Income-Contingent Repayment plan, passed in the 1993 Student Loan Reform Act signed by then-president Bill Clinton. The Student Loan Reform Act set payments at 20 percent of discretionary income. After twenty-five years of eligible payments, the plan writes off any outstanding debt. This was the first signal that the plans anticipated partial payments on student loans.
The slide toward free university accelerated in 2007 with income-based repayment. Monthly payments were calculated on what a student could pay, not what was owed, resetting Income-Contingent Repayment plan payments from 20 percent of income to 10 percent or 15 percent of discretionary income depending on the date the borrower first started borrowing student loans.
In 2010, President Barack Obama signed the Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010. Both the lending and collecting of loans was consolidated within the Department of Education (DOEd). This act nationalized the student loan process, putting it in the hands of political appointees, managed by an unprepared, non-banking-experienced staff. In 2010, student loan debt was half the 2023 total.
Income-dependent payback plans describe the four remaining options for paying student loans. SAVE is a new income-dependent plan. There are four common elements to all income-dependent plans.
Published poverty wages:
Poverty wages are deducted from adjusted gross income to produce “discretionary income.” Early plans deducted 100 percent of poverty wages. In the Affordable Care Act of 2010, poverty wage deductions became 150 percent. Later, the DOEd increased the multiplier to 200 percent. SAVE uses 225 percent of poverty wages.
Payment percentage:
Discretionary income is assessed by a fixed percentage to create a payment due. The original plan from 1993 used 20 percent of discretionary income. This changed to 15 percent of discretionary income in 2007. President (“I have my phone and a pen”) Obama issued a presidential memorandum reducing it from 15 percent to 10 percent.
Length of loan and unpaid balances:
If there is an unbroken record of payments, unpaid balances at the end of a loan term are forgiven. The DOEd waved the surrender flag for taxpayers. All loans will not be paid back to the Treasury.
Special status:
Most recently, the DOEd forgave the administration recently using extralegal authority for 1.5 million debtors with $28 billion in debts that were expunged by a department ruling of “substantial misconduct” by colleges that closed early. $45.7 billion was zeroed out by reclassifying 662,000 public service workers. This type of skullduggery is easier in the SAVE plan.
SAVE uses 225 percent of poverty wages as a deduction to reduce the subjective discretionary income. This reduced discretionary income uses a 5 percent calculation to create a payment due. The smallest amount of discretionary income assesses at the smallest percentage as calculated by the White House.
The SAVE plan is not eligible for loans in default. However, a phone call to the DOEd and enrollment in the “Fresh Start” program makes previously ineligible loans available for SAVE. Student payments that are seventy-five days delinquent will automatically enroll in the SAVE program. This can start the delinquency clock on loans greater than 270 days, erasing the record from credit reports. SAVE will eventually bring all loan payments under one process and one department, directed by the president.
We cannot be certain of the ultimate costs. With appropriate disclaimers (for static budgeting with hyperdynamic plans), the Congressional Budget Office suggests that the cost of implementing SAVE could cost $230 billion. Based on a five-year-old study, just under half of all student debt is estimated to be on income-dependent plans. The current number is likely greater based on trends. These plans have variable monthly payments during the term and have a forgiveness option, making any predictions of a final cost speculative. These plans are continually in flux. Any estimate of cost is a guess, more so after covid.
SAVE has legal challenges from attorney generals from three states. This challenge is not creating headlines. Without an injunction or congressional action, the plan would be initiated in July 2024. In June, twenty-five courts in Kansas and Missouri blocked further enrollment in the SAVE plan.
The SAVE plan fits the long-term goal of increased federal control of public higher education. The president can manipulate the plan to modify payments for a population demographic such as “dreamers” or for a major employment segment such as green energy ambassadors.
The courts’ challenge to this plan must succeed. We need a pause for a better fix on the actual debt. Both political parties have mismanaged this program. There are responsible measures in Congress to bring forward to cap this vote-buying scheme and protect taxpayers.
END
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT EP. 181
Episode 181
Posted 12th July 2024
China’s Covert Golden War Chest
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire addresses the community’s burning questions, offering unmatched insights into the short-term market movements and the hidden forces shaping the precious metals landscape.
The renowned London whistleblower guides listeners through China’s covert manoeuvres influencing the price of gold, concluding with a forecast of silver’s potential for a significant rally, as we enter Q3.
Andrew Maguire
Host
Andrew Maguire has almost 50 years’ experience working in the precious metals industry as an independent Loco London metals trader and analyst, where he has provided Precious Metals Advisory and Trading services for international hedge fund managers, bullion banks, directors, metal traders and many of the largest global institutions.
Andrew has built strong relationships with US and UK regulatory bodies, having worked as an advisor for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, (CFTC) and the Department of Justice, (DOJ). In the UK, Andrew is currently providing advisory services to the UK and the Financial Conduct Authority, (FCA).
For You
China’s Covert Golden War Chest – LFTV Ep 181
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
ASIA TRADING//FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 461.05 PTS OR 2.59% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1003.34 OR 2.45%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.89%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2524 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2702/ Oil UP TO 83.32dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 85.85/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2524
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2702
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 461.05 PTS OR 2.59%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1003.34 PTS OR 2.45%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.00 EURO RISES TO 1.0890 UP 16 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,084 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 159.06 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.5060/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.8080 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.269%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.468
3j Gold at $2402.70//Silver at: 30.73 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 30/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 87.69
3m oil into the 83 dollar handle for WTI and 85 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 159.06/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.084% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8956 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9755 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.217 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.425 UP 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.626 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.03…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.175 UP 9 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
.Futures Flat After Hot PPI, Mixed Bank Earnings
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 09:02 AM
US equity futures are flat, erasing a modest earlier gain, as yesterday’s rotation continues this morning with RTY rallying +0.8% pre-mkt even as megacap tech stocks are higher (NVDA +93bp, AAPL +39bp, AMZN +19bp). As of 8:45am, S&P futures were little changed after the index fell almost 1% in the previous session. The yield on 10-year Treasuries was unchanged at 4.21% and the USD is lower despite a PPI report that came in hotter than expected. Commodities are mixed: oil is higher, base metals are lower. Today, the key focus will be PPI (which beat across the board) and banks earnings (which were mixed).
In premarket trading, Wells Fargo sank 5% after warning it won’t be able to whittle away costs as fast as forecast amid higher-than-expected expenses. JPMorgan swung between gains and losses after reporting record profit, while missing on a few key metrics, like net interest income. Citigroup climbed 3% as equity trading beat estimates even as the lender said costs for the year are likely to be at the high end of the range previously provided. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Tesla dropped 1% after UBS cut its rating on the electric-vehicle maker to sell, saying the stock has rallied “too much, too soon.”
- Array Technologies gains 5% after Citi raised the solar tracking equipment company to buy, touting its growth potential.
- AT&T slips 2% as the company suffered a massive hack of customer data — separate from one reported earlier this year — that included records of calls and texts for nearly all of its mobile-phone users for a six-month period in 2022.
- Bally’s ticks 1% higher after securing a funding commitment from Gaming and Leisure Properties.
- JPMorgan falls 1% despite investment banking revenue beating estimates. CEO Jamie Dimon said while there has been some progress, inflation and rates may stay higher than expected.
US producer prices climbed in June more than forecast as a pickup in margins at service providers more than offset declines in the cost of goods. Investors are also eager to hear from the largest banks about the state of the US economy and expectations for the rest of the year, including the potential impact of the presidential elections in November.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 is up 0.2% – rising for a third day – led by gains in energy and consumer product shares. Here are the biggest movers Friday:
- Ericsson shares rise as much as 9.3% to the highest since September 2022 after the company reported stronger-than-expected sales, in part thanks to a growth revival in the key US market
- Addtech advances as much as 13%, the most since 2021 and to a record high, with DNB seeing a “solid” 1Q report from the Swedish industrial technology group, with net sales 4% ahead
- Lifco shares jump as much as 12% to hit a new record high after the maker of dental equipment, machinery and tools reported quarterly net sales above expectations in the second quarter
- Norwegian Air shares rise as much as 8.2% after 2Q Ebit surpassed expectations, leading analysts to predict upgrades to consensus forecasts, with DNB describing the report as “slightly postitive”
- Elkem shares jump as much as 11%, the most since July 2022, after the Norwegian silicon maker reported Ebitda for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate
- BFF Bank jumps as much as 14% to touch a two-month high after the Italian lender reported an increase in its past due exposures and risk-weighted assets, following a credit reclassification
- Volkswagen gains as much as 1% as Redburn raises its recommendation to neutral, saying the firm faces less exposure to any tariff escalations, with negotiations potentially dragging on
- European shipping companies extend their slide, with Denmark’s Maersk shedding as much as 4.6%, as economic uncertainty and excess capacity concerns continued to pressure freight rates
- Axfood falls as much as 8.8%, the most since 2022, after the Nordic retail group reported its latest earnings. DNB sees an overall week report, with its Dagab logistics unit the main drag
- EMS-Chemie shares slump as much as 7.2%, the most since 2020, after the Swiss company cut its revenue forecast and said the challenging economy and rising costs are weighing on demand
- Avanza shares drop as much as 6.5%, the most in three months, after the Swedish online bank and trading platform reported operating income for the second quarter that missed estimates
- Europris falls as much as 6.1% after DNB cut its recommendation for the Norwegian retail group to hold due to soft sales trend in its key Norwegian market and for its Swedish retail chain ÖoB
Earlier, Asian stocks declined as tech shares tracked their US peers lower after slowing inflation data. Equities in Hong Kong bucked the selloff amid prospects of lower borrowing costs. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.1%, the most in over a month, with TSMC, Samsung Electronics and Tokyo Electron among the biggest laggards. Tech-heavy markets such as Taiwan, Japan and South Korea led declines in the region. Equities in mainland China fluctuated as traders rebalanced their holdings ahead of next week’s Third Plenum. Property stocks climbed amid rising expectations for more support for the sector at the meeting. Meanwhile, shares in Hong Kong rose as soft US consumer price print boosted hopes for potential interest rate-cuts in the city. Here are the most notable movers:
- BOC Aviation shares rise as much as 5.3%, the most since April, after it closed a self-arranged club loan transaction with 25 banks globally totaling $2.3 billion.
- CK Infrastructure shares climb as much as 7.5% in Hong Kong, the most since December 2023, as the company considers a second listing on an overseas stock exchange.
- BayCurrent shares climb as much as 19%, the most since January 2022, after the Japanese IT services company reported first quarter operating income that beat analyst estimates and saw unit rates grow quarter-on-quarter.
- Chalco rises as much as 10% in Hong Kong and 6.4% on the mainland after JPMorgan upgrades the stock to overweight on expectations the company will raise its full-year payout ratio after its preliminary 2Q results beat estimates.
- Seven & I shares plunge as much as 8.4%, the most since August 2020, after the Japanese retail conglomerate reported first-quarter operating income that missed the average analyst estimates and weak performance in overseas convenience stores.
- Fast Retailing shares decline as much as 4.1%, the most since April 12, on concerns the stock’s recent gains will increase the probability that the Nikkei will reduce the company’s weighting in its benchmark average.
- Astro Malaysia Holdings shares plunge as much as 9.7% after the Inland Revenue Board served the company notices of additional tax assessment for 2019 to 2023.
- Huafon Chemical shares rise as much as 8%, the most since Feb. 7, after the company said it expects to report 1H profit rose by 1.6% to 24% y/y.
- Hanssem shares rally as much as 10% after Samsung Securities says the furniture manufacturer’s profits may get a lift from rising home sales in South Korea.
- Xtep International shares rise to the highest since June 11 as Goldman Sachs says the company’s ‘solid’ 2Q retail revenue growth is driven by online and emerging brands sales that were ahead of target.
In FX, the yen initially weakened against the dollar, paring some of the sharp rally seen in the prior session, before resuming its trek higher. An analysis of Bank of Japan accounts suggests authorities did step into the markets to prop up the yen on Thursday. USD/JPY was flat at ~158.90. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is down 0.1% and set for a third day of declines. The Swedish krona is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback after underlying inflation slowed more than expected.
In rates, treasuries edged lower, with US 10-year yields rising 1bps to 4.22%. Long-end yields are higher by ~1bp with 2s10s spread steeper by ~1bp; US 10-year around 4.225% outperforms bunds by ~4bp, gilts by ~6bp. European government bonds underperform their US peers.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1% to trade near $83.50 a barrel. Spot gold falls $12 to around $2,404/oz.
Bitcoin is incrementally softer and holds just above USD 57k, after briefly dipping below the level earlier. Ethereum remains firmly above USD 3k.
Today’s economic data slate includes June PPI (8:30am, which beat across the board) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). No Fed members are scheduled to speak
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,643.50
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 521.21
- MXAP down 0.6% to 187.44
- MXAPJ up 0.1% to 587.14
- Nikkei down 2.4% to 41,190.68
- Topix down 1.2% to 2,894.56
- Hang Seng Index up 2.6% to 18,293.38
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,971.30
- Sensex up 1.0% to 80,665.58
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 7,959.28
- Kospi down 1.2% to 2,857.00
- German 10Y yield rose 4bps at 2.51%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0884
- Brent Futures up 0.9% to $86.16/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,406.32
- US Dollar Index little changed at 104.37
Top Overnight News
- US President Biden mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Zelensky as President Putin before correcting himself during comments at the NATO summit, while he also mistakenly referred to Vice President Harris as Trump during his press conference. Furthermore, Biden said he has to finish the job because there is so much at stake and has taken three significant and intense neurological exams which say he is in good shape.
- US President Biden is expected to face a deluge of calls from House Democrats urging him to drop out of the presidential race regardless of his performance at the NATO press conference, according to Axios. It was also reported that dozens of Democratic lawmakers are to call for US President Biden to quit the race in the coming 48 hours: CBS.
- Three Biden officials directly involved in his re-election told NBC News that his chances of winning are zero and one said he needs to drop out, while it was also reported that some Biden advisers were discussing how to convince him to step aside: NYT.
- The Biden campaign is quietly assessing the viability of Vice President Harris’ candidacy against Donald Trump in a new head-to-head poll: MSNBC.
- Softbank has acquired U.K. semiconductor company Graphcore, the latest in a series of steps taken by the Japanese tech investment company in the artificial-intelligence field. The Bristol-based chip company, which specializes in AI, said that it is now a wholly-owned subsidiary of SoftBank Group and will continue to operate under the Graphcore name. WSJ
- Fed’s Goolsbee (non-voter) said the June CPI report is excellent and the improvement on shelter inflation is profoundly encouraging, while he added this is what a path to 2% inflation looks like and as inflation falls, leaving Fed policy rate steady means Fed is tightening policy. Goolsbee said the reason to tighten policy would be if the economy is overheating but added they are not overheating, as well as noted that he doesn’t like tying their hands on policy decisions and they need to decide when to cut rates, not trying to figure out a rate path for next seven months.
- China’s already formidable exports surged in June, China’s customs administration reported on Friday. But imports shrank, with Chinese companies and households becoming more cautious about spending money. The result was a record monthly trade surplus of just over $99 billion. NYT
- Despite billions of dollars in additional weapons and security assistance that NATO announced this week, allied officials said Ukraine would not be ready to launch a dramatic counteroffensive or retake large swaths of territory from Russia until next year. NYT
- Some American officials have grown more optimistic that a deal to release Israeli hostages held in Gaza in return for a cease-fire is at hand. But people briefed on the talks say it will be days until it is clear whether a breakthrough has been achieved because of difficulties in communication between Hamas officials in Qatar and the group’s leaders in Gaza. NYT
- Joe Biden vowed to stay in the presidential race despite new gaffes, including mixing up Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin, and VP Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, during a press conference on the sidelines of the NATO summit. At least three more House Democrats, including Jim Himes, the top member from his party on the Intelligence Committee, called for Biden to drop his re-election bid. BBG
- Big bank earnings kick off today with JPMorgan, Citi and Wells Fargo as shares trounce the broader market. Investors are looking past another projected drop in net interest income, instead focusing on investment banking and a rebound in loan profits. BBG
- Boeing is said to have told some 737 Max customers that aircrafts due in 2025 and 2026 face additional delays. BBG
- U.S. Republican lawmakers are seeking a probe into Microsoft’s $1.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence firm G42, citing concerns about the transfer of advanced technology and possible ties the Abu Dhabi-based company may have with China. WSJ
- Axel Springer is considering a break-up, w/a separation of its media assets (including Politico and Business Insider) and classifieds business. FT
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newquawk
APAC stocks took their cues from the mixed performance stateside where softer-than-expected CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets and spurred a stock rotation out of large-cap tech into small-cap cyclicals. ASX 200 gained amid lower yields with gold miners, real estate, and consumer stocks leading the advances. Nikkei 225 underperformed after recently sliding back from record highs and amid speculated FX intervention. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. diverged as the former rallied back above the 18,000 level with strength seen in property and tech, while the mainland was lacklustre after mixed Chinese trade data in which Exports topped forecasts but Imports surprisingly contracted.
Top Asian News
- China’s Foreign Minister said in a phone call with his Dutch counterpart that China is willing to establish close ties with the new Dutch government and carry out all-around dialogue, as well as enhance mutual understanding. Furthermore, China believes the Dutch side will encourage the European side to look at China objectively and rationally and play a constructive role in maintaining a healthy and stable development of China-EU relations.
- Japanese government official said Japan conducted currency intervention to prop up the yen on Thursday, according to Mainichi citing an unidentified official. It was separately reported that the BoJ likely conducted rate checks in EUR/JPY on Friday, according to Nikkei.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said currency rates should be set by the market and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while he wouldn’t comment on FX levels, FX intervention and media reports that Japan conducted FX rate checks.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said no comment on FX intervention and wouldn’t comment on forex levels, while he added it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they are ready to take all possible means on forex.
- Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda said no comment on FX intervention and noted recent yen moves are somewhat rapid, while he added they will take appropriate action on forex if needed. Furthermore, he is puzzled about the media report on intervention, while he did not comment on whether they intervened in the FX market and cannot think if government officials commented on forex intervention.
- BoJ Survey says wage growth spreading among small and medium firms this year. Growth being driven by rising prices, hiring competition and a recovery in earnings performance.
- Japan’s business lobby Doyukai Chief Niinami has asked the BoJ to raise rates in July, according to Nikkei.
- Japanese gov’t is reportedly expected to slightly cut its economy growth forecast for FY24 from the current view of 1.3%, via Reuters citing sources.
- BoJ data suggest Japan intervened in the FX market on July 11th, may have spent between JPY 3.37-3.57tln, according to Reuters; Accounts point to intervention of some JPY 3.5tln, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) are entirely in the green, continuing the price action seen in the prior session. Indices initially opened tentatively higher and continued higher as the morning progressed, though has edged off best levels in recent trade. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Energy takes the top spot, benefiting from underlying strength in the crude complex. The Telecoms sector has been lifted by post-earnings strength in Ericsson (+7.2%). US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY +0.7%) are mixed with the ES and NQ taking a breather from yesterday’s hefty selling pressure; the RTY continues to advance and holds at highs, with the rotation narrative remaining firm. Bank earnings today: BNY Melon, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi. Intel (INTC) exec. says they are on track for cumulative software sales of USD 1bln by end-2027
UBS has downgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of USD 197
Top European News
- Rio Tinto (RIO LN) studies mining megadeals after collapse of the BHP (BHP AT)-Anglo American (AAL LN) swoop; Rio is said to have held talks with bankers to ‘wargame’ a potential USD 32bln offer for Teck Resources (TECK), via Sky News. The article notes that Teck is among a “refreshed list” of potential takeover targets. One source stated that Rio is “not about to launch an imminent bid for Teck Resources, but acknowledged that it was on a list of possible targets.”
FX
- Despite initial upside earlier in the session, USD strength has begun to wane with the DXY now flat. Should the downside continue, a test of Thursday’s low at 104.07 could be seen.
- EUR/USD firmer on the session as the attempted recovery in the USD has begun to wane. Upside focus for EUR/USD remains on a potential breach of 1.09 after topping out bang on that level yesterday.
- GBP firmer vs. the USD with Cable on a 1.29 handle but below yesterday’s 1.2949 high. It has been a solid week of gains for the GBP amid hawkish interjections from MPC’s Haskel, Mann and Pill as well as a solid M/M June GDP print.
- JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD after some wild price action yesterday spurred by US CPI and suspected Japanese intervention. Since then, more volatile price action was observed overnight with the Nikkei suggesting the BoJ likely conducted rate checks in EUR/JPY.
- Antipodeans are both firmer vs the Dollar; AUD/USD is currently extending its winning streak vs. the USD to a 9th consecutive session, albeit is currently below yesterday’s CPI-induced 0.6798 peak.
- Soft Swedish inflation data saw EUR/SEK spike higher from 11.4240 to 11.4600. The significantly cooler than expected print serves to reinforce market expectations for an August cut.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1315 vs exp. 7.2514 (prev. 7.1339).
Fixed Income
- USTs are very slightly softer, in a paring of US CPI-induced strength and following a subdued 30yr auction on Thursday. Docket today includes US PPI and UoM Prelim. Currently trading around 110’30.
- Bunds hold a bearish bias, but still remains at elevated levels sparked by the dovish US CPI report. Bunds are down to a 131.56 base where they appear to have made a bit of a floor thus far having pulled back from an overnight 131.81 peak.
- Gilt price action is in-fitting with peers given the lack of UK-specific newsflow. Gapped lower by 26 ticks to 98.25 before slipping further to lows of 97.87; complex awaiting next week’s key wage and inflation metrics.
Commodities
- Crude is extending on yesterday’s modest gains which were supported by a softer Dollar following the US CPI metrics, with the strength continuing in APAC hours. Brent September topped USD 86/bbl to trade in a current USD 85.45-86.35/bbl parameter.
- Downbeat trade across all precious metals following yesterday’s US CPI-induced surge, with underperformance this morning seen in spot silver and palladium whilst spot gold posts shallower losses ahead of US PPI. Spot gold is subdued in a current USD 2,400.14-2,416.26/oz band.
- Mixed trade across base metals with copper bucking the trend this morning following yesterday’s slide despite the constructive US data for the metal.
Geopolitics
- “Israeli warplanes breach the sound barrier over areas north of Beirut (capital of Lebanon)”, according to Sky News Arabia
- US President Biden said NATO confirms support for Ukraine and will not allow Russia to achieve victory.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said Ukraine can count on NATO now and for the long haul, while he added that Chinese exercises with Belarusian forces are part of a pattern and confirms authoritarian regimes are aligning more.
- German Chancellor Scholz said more needs to be done to ramp up air defences for Ukraine, while he added their defence industry needs to be capable of expanding production capacities swiftly.
- South Korea and the US signed a guideline on nuclear deterrence and operation in the Korean Peninsula, according to the South Korean Presidential Office.
- “Israel says it was bombed in southern Syria in response to a projectile fired from the Golan”, via Al Arabiya..
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: June PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%
- June PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.2%
- June PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%
- June PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
- 10:00: July U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 66.0, prior 65.9
- July U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 68.5, prior 68.2
- July U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 69.3, prior 69.6
- July U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.9%, prior 3.0%
- July U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets got another boost yesterday, as the latest US CPI print surprised on the downside once again, which led to growing hopes that inflation was finally being tamed. Of course, it’s worth remembering that one report doesn’t make a trend, but recent months have brought some of the weakest inflation numbers since the current surge began in 2021, and it’s led to growing expectations that the Fed will finally be able to start cutting rates in the months ahead. In fact, investors are now fully pricing in a rate cut by the September meeting, and yesterday saw the 2yr Treasury yield (-10.6bps) post its biggest daily decline since January. Equities also put in a strong session for the most part, and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+3.57%) had its best daily performance of 2024 so far. That said, one very notable exception were the Magnificent 7 (-4.26%), which put in their worst performance since October 2022, and their concentration meant that the S&P 500 (-0.88%) ended its run of 7 consecutive daily gains, even though nearly 80% of the index’s members were actually higher on the day.
In terms of the details of that CPI report, headline CPI for June actually fell by -0.1% on the month (vs. +0.1% expected), which was the biggest outright decline in prices since May 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. Other details in the report were also very promising, as core CPI came in at just +0.1% (vs. +0.2% expected), which is the weakest month for core inflation since January 2021. The declines were driven by several factors, but there was a meaningful step lower in shelter inflation, with Owners’ Equivalent Rent up just +0.28% in June, which was its weakest month since April 2021, and down from +0.43% in May. Bear in mind that the OER category alone makes up more than a quarter of the CPI basket, and around a third of core CPI, so if that shift lower is durable, then that’s very good news in terms of keeping inflation low.
Markets were also reassured that the latest print followed a series of softer inflation numbers in Q2, raising hopes that it wasn’t simply one good month. In fact, on a 3-month annualised basis, core CPI is up just +2.1% now, which is the lowest since March 2021. To be fair, the 6-month core CPI is still at +3.3%, which reflects the stronger prints from Q1, but that’s also on a downward trajectory, and similar prints to the last two would cement the idea that inflation is on a clear path lower. On the back of the print, our US economists have lowered their 2024 core CPI forecast by three tenths to 3.0% (on Q4/Q4 basis). See their full reaction note here.
With that inflation report in hand, there was immediate speculation that the Fed might accelerate the timing of their rate cuts and announce a first cut as soon as the September meeting. For instance, f utures are now fully pricing in a move by September, whereas beforehand it was only fully priced in by November. Likewise for the year as a whole, there were growing expectations that the Fed would deliver multiple rate cuts, with 61bps of cuts now priced in by the December meeting at the close, up from 51bps the previous day. When it came to Fed officials themselves, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said that the latest data was “excellent”, and that his view “is this is what the path to 2% looks like”.
As investors priced in more rate cuts, the US Dollar index weakened -0.58%, and US Treasuries rallied strongly, with both the 2yr and 10yr yields falling to their lowest level since March. Specifically, the 2yr yield (-10.6bps) was down to 4.51%, in its biggest daily decline since January, and the 10yr yield (-7.4bps) was down to 4.21%. Treasuries did give up some of their initial post-CPI gains late on however, with the 10yr yield having traded as low 4.165% intra-day. And overnight, the 10yr yield (+1.0bps) has moved a bit higher to 4.22%. There were similar moves in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-7.0bps), OATs (-6.3bps) and BTPs (-7.0bps) all falling as well.
For equities though, there was a much more divergent performance in the US, with small-caps surging whilst the Magnificent 7 slumped. That meant the small-cap Russell 2000 (+3.57%) had its best daily performance since December, rising to its highest level since March 2022. By contrast, the Magnificent 7 (-4.26%) had its worst performance since October 2022. Ultimately though, that meant the S&P 500 (-0.88%) fell back by a sizeable amount, even though more than three-quarters of the index’s members actually rose on the day. The equal-weighted S&P 500 (+1.17%) posted a strong advance, with the largest daily performance gap versus the main market cap-weighted index since 2020. Rate-sensitive sectors including real estate (+2.66%) and utilities (+1.83%) outperformed within the S&P 500. Meanwhile in Europe, there were more consistent gains, with advances for the STOXX 600 (+0.60%), the DAX (+0.69%) and the CAC 40 (+0.71%).
Speaking of Europe, there were some strong growth numbers from the UK yesterday, where monthly GDP was up by +0.4% in May (vs. +0.2% expected). The monthly GDP numbers can be a bit choppy, but if you look at the full three months leading up to May, the economy was +0.9% bigger than the previous three months, which is the fastest growth since January 2022. In turn, that meant that gilts underperformed, with the 10yr yield only down -5.2bps, and the weakness in the dollar also helped sterling reach its strongest level against the dollar in almost a year, at $1.2911. Staying on the UK, Luke Templeman and Galina Pozdnyakova published a piece yesterday on the country’s new listing rules, which you can read here.
Overnight in Asia, equity markets have lost ground across the region, with losses for the Nikkei (-2.23%), the KOSPI (-1.31%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.21%) and the CSI 300 (-0.20%). The main exception to that is the Hang Seng, which has surged +1.98% this morning. For the Nikkei, those losses have come amidst a sharp appreciation in the Japanese Yen, which strengthened by +1.79% yesterday against the US Dollar, reaching 158.83. In part that was down to the weakness of the dollar after the CPI print, but there was speculation about whether there’d been an intervention, and Japan’s current chief Masato Kanda said he was “not in a position” to comment on whether Japan had intervened. Looking forward, US equity futures haven’t seen much movement this morning, with those on the S&P 500 unchanged, and those on the NASDAQ 100 down -0.14%.
When it came to yesterday’s other data, the US weekly initial jobless claims for the week ending July 6 came in at a 6-week low of 222k (vs. 235k expected). Moreover, the continuing claims fell to 1.852m (vs. 1.860m expected) over the week ending June 29, which ends a run of 9 consecutive weekly gains.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US PPI reading or June, along with the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for July. We’ll also get earnings releases from JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and BNY Mellon.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
RTY continues to outperform, Dollar is flat & Bonds slightly pare recent gains; US PPI due – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 05:56 AM
- European bourses are entirely in the green, US futures are mixed with the ES and NQ flat whilst the RTY continues to outperform
- Dollar is flat having erased earlier gains, USD/JPY back below 160 after choppy trade overnight
- Bonds are pressured giving back some of the post-CPI strength
- Crude is firmer and resides near session highs, XAU lower and base metals are mixed
- Looking ahead, US PPI, Uni. of Michigan Prelim., Earnings from BNY Melon, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) are entirely in the green, continuing the price action seen in the prior session. Indices initially opened tentatively higher and continued higher as the morning progressed, though has edged off best levels in recent trade.
- European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Energy takes the top spot, benefiting from underlying strength in the crude complex. The Telecoms sector has been lifted by post-earnings strength in Ericsson (+7.2%).
- US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY +0.7%) are mixed with the ES and NQ taking a breather from yesterday’s hefty selling pressure; the RTY continues to advance and holds at highs, with the rotation narrative remaining firm. Bank earnings today: BNY Melon, JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi.
- Intel (INTC) exec. says they are on track for cumulative software sales of USD 1bln by end-2027
- UBS has downgraded Tesla (TSLA) to Neutral from Sell with a price target of USD 197
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- Despite initial upside earlier in the session, USD strength has begun to wane with the DXY now flat. Should the downside continue, a test of Thursday’s low at 104.07 could be seen.
- EUR/USD firmer on the session as the attempted recovery in the USD has begun to wane. Upside focus for EUR/USD remains on a potential breach of 1.09 after topping out bang on that level yesterday.
- GBP firmer vs. the USD with Cable on a 1.29 handle but below yesterday’s 1.2949 high. It has been a solid week of gains for the GBP amid hawkish interjections from MPC’s Haskel, Mann and Pill as well as a solid M/M June GDP print.
- JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD after some wild price action yesterday spurred by US CPI and suspected Japanese intervention. Since then, more volatile price action was observed overnight with the Nikkei suggesting the BoJ likely conducted rate checks in EUR/JPY.
- Antipodeans are both firmer vs the Dollar; AUD/USD is currently extending its winning streak vs. the USD to a 9th consecutive session, albeit is currently below yesterday’s CPI-induced 0.6798 peak.
- Soft Swedish inflation data saw EUR/SEK spike higher from 11.4240 to 11.4600. The significantly cooler than expected print serves to reinforce market expectations for an August cut.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1315 vs exp. 7.2514 (prev. 7.1339).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are very slightly softer, in a paring of US CPI-induced strength and following a subdued 30yr auction on Thursday. Docket today includes US PPI and UoM Prelim. Currently trading around 110’30.
- Bunds hold a bearish bias, but still remains at elevated levels sparked by the dovish US CPI report. Bunds are down to a 131.56 base where they appear to have made a bit of a floor thus far having pulled back from an overnight 131.81 peak.
- Gilt price action is in-fitting with peers given the lack of UK-specific newsflow. Gapped lower by 26 ticks to 98.25 before slipping further to lows of 97.87; complex awaiting next week’s key wage and inflation metrics.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude is extending on yesterday’s modest gains which were supported by a softer Dollar following the US CPI metrics, with the strength continuing in APAC hours. Brent September topped USD 86/bbl to trade in a current USD 85.45-86.35/bbl parameter.
- Downbeat trade across all precious metals following yesterday’s US CPI-induced surge, with underperformance this morning seen in spot silver and palladium whilst spot gold posts shallower losses ahead of US PPI. Spot gold is subdued in a current USD 2,400.14-2,416.26/oz band.
- Mixed trade across base metals with copper bucking the trend this morning following yesterday’s slide despite the constructive US data for the metal.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- Swedish CPIF YY (Jun) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.6% (Prev. 2.3%); Ex Energy 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.0%)
- German Wholesale Price Index YY (Jun) -0.6% (Prev. -0.7%); MM -0.3% (Prev. 0.1%)
- French CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Jun) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.5%); CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Jun) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Spanish CPI MM Final NSA (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%); CPI YY Final NSA (Jun) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.4%); HICP Final YY (Jun) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.5%); HICP Final MM (Jun) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Rio Tinto (RIO LN) studies mining megadeals after collapse of the BHP (BHP AT)-Anglo American (AAL LN) swoop; Rio is said to have held talks with bankers to ‘wargame’ a potential USD 32bln offer for Teck Resources (TECK), via Sky News. The article notes that Teck is among a “refreshed list” of potential takeover targets. One source stated that Rio is “not about to launch an imminent bid for Teck Resources, but acknowledged that it was on a list of possible targets.”
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (non-voter) said the June CPI report is excellent and the improvement on shelter inflation is profoundly encouraging, while he added this is what a path to 2% inflation looks like and as inflation falls, leaving Fed policy rate steady means Fed is tightening policy. Goolsbee said the reason to tighten policy would be if the economy is overheating but added they are not overheating, as well as noted that he doesn’t like tying their hands on policy decisions and they need to decide when to cut rates, not trying to figure out a rate path for next seven months.
- US President Biden mistakenly referred to Ukrainian President Zelensky as President Putin before correcting himself during comments at the NATO summit, while he also mistakenly referred to Vice President Harris as Trump during his press conference. Furthermore, Biden said he has to finish the job because there is so much at stake and has taken three significant and intense neurological exams which say he is in good shape.
- US President Biden’s campaign said there was increased anxiety after the debate but it is not seeing a drastic shift in where the race stands, while internal data and public polling show the race remains within the margin of error in key battleground states. Furthermore, it noted that polling shows Biden’s post-debate net favourability is 20% pts higher than Trump’s among undecided voters.
- The Biden campaign is quietly assessing the viability of Vice President Harris’ candidacy against Donald Trump in a new head-to-head poll, according to MSNBC.
- Three Biden officials directly involved in his re-election told NBC News that his chances of winning are zero and one said he needs to drop out, while it was also reported that some Biden advisers were discussing how to convince him to step aside, according to NYT.
- US President Biden is expected to face a deluge of calls from House Democrats urging him to drop out of the presidential race regardless of his performance at the NATO press conference, according to Axios. It was also reported that dozens of Democratic lawmakers are to call for US President Biden to quit the race in the coming 48 hours, according to CBS.
GEOPOLITICS
- “Israeli warplanes breach the sound barrier over areas north of Beirut (capital of Lebanon)”, according to Sky News Arabia
- US President Biden said NATO confirms support for Ukraine and will not allow Russia to achieve victory.
- NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said Ukraine can count on NATO now and for the long haul, while he added that Chinese exercises with Belarusian forces are part of a pattern and confirms authoritarian regimes are aligning more.
- German Chancellor Scholz said more needs to be done to ramp up air defences for Ukraine, while he added their defence industry needs to be capable of expanding production capacities swiftly.
- South Korea and the US signed a guideline on nuclear deterrence and operation in the Korean Peninsula, according to the South Korean Presidential Office.
- “Israel says it was bombed in southern Syria in response to a projectile fired from the Golan”, via Al Arabiya..
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is incrementally softer and holds just above USD 57k, after briefly dipping below the level earlier. Ethereum posts losses to a slightly higher magnitude but remains firmly above USD 3k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks took their cues from the mixed performance stateside where softer-than-expected CPI data boosted Fed rate cut bets and spurred a stock rotation out of large-cap tech into small-cap cyclicals.
- ASX 200 gained amid lower yields with gold miners, real estate, and consumer stocks leading the advances.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed after recently sliding back from record highs and amid speculated FX intervention.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. diverged as the former rallied back above the 18,000 level with strength seen in property and tech, while the mainland was lacklustre after mixed Chinese trade data in which Exports topped forecasts but Imports surprisingly contracted.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China’s Foreign Minister said in a phone call with his Dutch counterpart that China is willing to establish close ties with the new Dutch government and carry out all-around dialogue, as well as enhance mutual understanding. Furthermore, China believes the Dutch side will encourage the European side to look at China objectively and rationally and play a constructive role in maintaining a healthy and stable development of China-EU relations.
- Japanese government official said Japan conducted currency intervention to prop up the yen on Thursday, according to Mainichi citing an unidentified official. It was separately reported that the BoJ likely conducted rate checks in EUR/JPY on Friday, according to Nikkei.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said currency rates should be set by the market and rapid FX moves are undesirable, while he wouldn’t comment on FX levels, FX intervention and media reports that Japan conducted FX rate checks.
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said no comment on FX intervention and wouldn’t comment on forex levels, while he added it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they are ready to take all possible means on forex.
- Japanese top currency diplomat Kanda said no comment on FX intervention and noted recent yen moves are somewhat rapid, while he added they will take appropriate action on forex if needed. Furthermore, he is puzzled about the media report on intervention, while he did not comment on whether they intervened in the FX market and cannot think if government officials commented on forex intervention.
- BoJ Survey says wage growth spreading among small and medium firms this year. Growth being driven by rising prices, hiring competition and a recovery in earnings performance.
- Japan’s business lobby Doyukai Chief Niinami has asked the BoJ to raise rates in July, according to Nikkei.
- Japanese gov’t is reportedly expected to slightly cut its economy growth forecast for FY24 from the current view of 1.3%, via Reuters citing sources.
- BoJ data suggest Japan intervened in the FX market on July 11th, may have spent between JPY 3.37-3.57tln, according to Reuters; Accounts point to intervention of some JPY 3.5tln, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jun) 99.05B vs. Exp. 85.0B (Prev. 82.62B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Jun) 8.6% vs. Exp. 8.0% (Prev. 7.6%); Imports YY -2.3% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 1.8%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jun) 703.7B (Prev. 586.4B)
- Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Jun) 10.7% (Prev. 11.2%); Imports -0.6% (Prev. 5.2%)
- Singapore GDP QQ (Q2 P) 0.4% vs Exp. 0.4% (prev. 0.1%)
- Singapore GDP YY (Q2 P) 2.9% vs Exp. 2.7% (prev. 2.7%)
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
After Dumping $22 Billion Overnight, Is The BoJ Intervening Again In USDJPY?
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 09:31 AM
Mrs Watanabe will not be best pleased again this morning as it appears – having dumped billions of dollars into the FX markets overnight to try and maintain the momentum higher in yen – the Bank of Japan is ‘intervening’ in the currency markets.
USDJPY just puked almost two big figures after the hotter than expected PPI print…
Presumably they were hoping for a miss and planned their intervention – just like yesterday’s – to exaggerate the momentum lower in USDJPY.
Comments overnight from Japan’s top currency official, Masato Kanda, who stuck with a strategy of trying to keep market players guessing, prompted a spike lower also but that failed very fast.
He told reporters in Tokyo on Thursday night that he wasn’t in a position to say if the move was intervention.
“Our practice is basically not to say whether we have intervened or not,” he said Thursday.
“While some believe the move was a reaction to the CPI results, others say that other forces may have been at work.”
He followed up with comments early Friday, saying that given the yield gap between the US and Japan, speculation was probably behind the moves.
TV Asahi, a Japanese broadcaster, reported officials had stepped into the currency market.
Daily newspaper Mainichi Shimbun also reported an intervention, citing an unidentified Japan government official.
More problematically, according to a Bloomberg analysis of central bank accounts, the scale of intervention was probably around ¥3.5 trillion ($22 billion), based on a comparison of Bank of Japan accounts and money broker forecasts.
“Right now we are seeing two-way activity in the market but no clear directional bias,” said Ruchir Sharma, London-based global head of FX option trading at Nomura International Plc.
Sharma added that there was “palpable nervousness in the market” in recent sessions from hedge funds looking to protect carry trades for scenarios like the one that just played out.
The spike on Thursday shared similarities with this year’s previous interventions, in which the Ministry of Finance bought ¥9.8 trillion to stem losses in apparent moves on April 29 and May 1.
The yen’s Thursday rally was the biggest on a one-day basis since May 1.
Not much bang for their buck and the PPI ‘beat’ ruined the momentum this morning, with USDJPY stalling at yesterday’s lows.
“Certainly the extent of the move does suggest it could well have been intervention,” said Jane Foley, head of currency strategy at Rabobank.
“It’s quite exciting and does cause ripples on our trading desk.”
However, the lack of follow-through makes us wonder if the BoJ running out of ammo (or fortitude) to maintain any control of its currency?
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
Nearly Half Of German Welfare Payments Go To Foreign Migrants
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
The argument that mass migration is needed to support GDP levels and pay for pensions took another blow when it was revealed 47.3% of welfare recipients in Germany are foreign migrants.
According to newly released government statistics, nearly half of the 5.49 million people in Germany on benefits are foreign migrants, four percentage points higher than in 2022.
€42.6 billion euros is now being paid out in welfare compared to to €36.6 billion in 2022.
“In addition, there was another record €6.3 billion worth of administration costs for the citizen’s benefit program, which is €300 million more than 2022, according to government data obtained by AfD MP Rene Springer after a parliamentary request,” reports Remix News.
“If this administrative money is added, then total welfare costs equaled €48.9 billion. Bild notes this figure is 14.8 percent higher than in 2023, 18.4 percent higher compared to 2020, and 23 percent higher compared to 2015.”
2.6 million foreign migrants are now citizen’s allowance recipients, a rise of 368,000 on the previous year, which equates to 16.5 per cent.
Right-wing party AfD points out that the 47.3% figure also doesn’t include German citizens from a migration background, since once they obtain citizenship they are considered as German as someone who was born in the country.
“Which country in the world allows itself to be exploited in this manner?” asked the party in statement.
“The percentage of people receiving benefits has more than doubled compared to 2010 (19.6 percent).”
DHK, the largest business association in Germany, accuse the government of worsening the country’s economic position and exacerbating unemployment.
“The data pokes a major hole in the claims that newcomers will help pay for German pensions and help fill demand from German industry, which is desperately searching for skilled workers,” writes John Cody.
“In fact, the data shows that the German state spent €48.2 billion on migrants, including social housing, medical costs, education, integration courses, and other expenses.”
As we previously highlighted, statistics also show that around 6 out of 10 violent crimes in Germany are committed by foreign migrants.
But apparently, diversity continues to be their greatest strength.
* * *
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END
Much to the anger of Russia, Germany has plans to use USA long range missiles
(zerohedge)
Germany ‘In Crosshairs’ As US Plans Deployment Of Long-Range Missiles, Russia Warns
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 02:45 AM
In 2019, the US withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which prohibited land-based missile systems with a range of 310 to 3,400 miles. Already Washington has briefly deployed such systems to southeast Asia (Typhon launchers in the Philippines for temporary exercises), which has riled China, but now for the first time nuke-capable missiles will be deployed to Germany.
The US announced Wednesday in relation to the ongoing NATO summit in Washington: “The United States will begin episodic deployments of the long-range fires capabilities of its Multi-Domain Task Force in Germany in 2026, as part of planning for enduring stationing of these capabilities in the future.”
“When fully developed, these conventional long-range fires units will include SM-6, Tomahawk, and developmental hypersonic weapons, which have significantly longer range than current land-based fires in Europe,” the statement posted to the White House website adds.
There’s a widespread belief that the US dropped the INF treaty in the first place so that it could deploy intermediate-range missiles near China. But in 2022, the Russia-Ukraine war kicked off, and much of the West’s national security focus since then has been to rebuild Europe’s defenses.
As expected, Russia has reacted with fury to the new missile plan for Germany, with Russian Ambassador to the US Anatoly Antonov stating on Telegram Thursday that the move is a “serious mistake” as “such extremely destabilizing steps are a direct threat to international security and strategic stability.”
The envoy further said this only “increases the risks of a missile arms race,” given that it could unleash “uncontrolled escalation amid dangerously soaring Russia-NATO tensions.”
Antonov said that Russia has desired to keep safeguards in place, but “Instead of the desire for peace that Russia has demonstrated many times, the Americans have embarked on the dangerous path of militarism.”
He further warned that this brings European states like Germany in the crosshairs and that Moscow’s patience is limited. The ambassador posed: “Doesn’t Germany understand that the emergence of American missile assets on German soil will lead to these facilities ending up in Russian crosshairs? This is not saber-rattling, it is the simple logic of a normal person.”
The end of Cold War era treaty was negotiated precisely to avoid and reduce weapons build-up in Europe…
If Donald Trump takes the White House after November, it will be interesting to see whether he sticks by these provocative missile expansion plans, or if he halts it while desiring to deescalate tensions over arms placement with an aim of of finding Ukraine peace.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/USA
Biden Resumes Transfer Of 500-Pound Bombs To Israel As Fight Returns To Gaza City
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 07:40 PM
The Biden administration’s punitive ‘pause’ of arms transfers for certain types of munitions to Israel, namely 500-pound and 2,000-pound bombs, didn’t last very long. As many predicted from the start, it was a mere slap of the wrist ploy for PR purposes to take some pressure off from both European allies abroad and Progressive Democrats at home in the US.
“The U.S. will soon begin shipping to Israel the 500-pound bombs that the Biden administration had previously suspended, ending a two-month pause it had imposed in a bid to reduce civilian casualties in Gaza, U.S. officials said,” according to fresh Wall Street Journal reporting.
The bombs are expected to arrive in Israel in a matter of weeks, and “are in the process of being shipped,” the report adds. The 2,000-pound bombs Israel also previously had access to are reportedly still on hold, however, and will not be transferred by Washington.
The paused shipment had been withheld two months ago as Israeli ground forces went into the southern city of Rafah, resulting in the displacement of some one million civilians; however, despite calling the Rafah offensive a “red line” – the White House has kept supplying Israel with a variety of other weapons systems.
“Our main concern had been and remains the potential use of 2,000-pound bombs in Rafah and elsewhere in Gaza,” a US official has confirmed. “Because our concern was not about the 500-pound bombs, those are moving forward as part of the usual process.”
Meanwhile, fighting has returned to Gaza City in the north of the Strip, which had been pacified in the opening months of the conflict.
Israel’s military (IDF) has once again ordered all residents of Gaza City to immediately evacuate to the central part of the Gaza Strip amid heightened operations in the north, where militants have returned. BBC details:
Leaflets dropped by aircraft instruct “everyone in Gaza City” to leave what is described as a “dangerous combat zone” via designated safe routes – marked as two roads that lead to shelters in Deir al-Balah and al-Zawaida.
All of these developments are likely to again intensify internal Democratic infighting in the US. Coupled with speculations over his health and fitness for another term, Biden also faces severe criticism over his handling of Gaza.
Ironically some of these same Progressives have at once accused Biden of enabling genocide while simultaneously urging that he should stay in the race and take the White House for another term…
The “Squad” position that Biden is both complicit in an ongoing “genocide” and totally fit to serve another four years as president is really special
·
482.2K Views
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at the start of this week came out in support of Biden staying in amid an avalanche of calls for him to step aside following his disastrous debate performance.
“I have spoken to the president over the weekend. I have spoken with him extensively,” Ocasio-Cortez told reporters Monday night. “He made clear then — and he has made clear since — that he is in this race.” She emphasized, “The matter is closed.” Likely she’ll remain quiet on his Gaza policies moving forward as well.
END
ISRAEL /HAMAS
Power vacuum: Can an ‘interim’ force work for Gaza? – analysis
If the Palestinian Authority can’t even control the West Bank, how will its troops fare in Gaza?
By SETH J. FRANTZMANJULY 11, 2024 16:11Updated: JULY 11, 2024 17:33
Nine months into the war in Gaza a report on Thursday in The Washington Post indicated that Israel and Hamas could be open to an “interim” force that might govern Gaza as a stage in a ceasefire and hostage deal.
The report, likely a trial balloon to examine its feasibility, claims that around 2,500 personnel, trained by the United States and linked to the Palestinian Authority, could be deployed in Gaza.
This sounds good, but history teaches us that these kinds of ideas rarely work because they usually don’t have the backing they need to actually be an interim force.
Let’s consider a few examples. Back in the 1990s when Somalia was in a civil war the UN deployed a mission there from 1993-1995 called UNOSOM II.
Without going into all the details, the mission largely failed and suffered casualties in fights against local warlords and was withdrawn. From a peak strength of some 30,000, it eventually had only 2,000 personnel.
While the Somalia operation was a failure, the KFOR force that was NATO-backed and sent to Kosovo in 1999 proved more successful.
It helped secure Kosovo and pave the way for its independence. It had serious backing and succeeded because the local people wanted it there.
Contrast that with Somalia where the locals didn’t seem to want the force there and its backing eroded quickly once the US suffered losses in Somalia.
Then there are forces that seem to achieve less than nothing in terms of their mission.
Using Lebanon as a case study for Gaza’s future
The United Nations “interim” force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) has been deployed since 1978. Under its watch, Hezbollah has grown into a terrorist group that is better armed than many countries.
Under UNIFIL’s watch Hezbollah has launched 6,000 rockets, missiles and drones at Israel and none of the UN decisions regarding Lebanon have been observed.
About the only thing that UNIFIL has achieved is to provide the fig leaf of an “international” presence that enables Lebanon to let Hezbollah run half the country.
Considering these three examples, which is most likely to apply to a US-trained force, lightly equipped with small arms, deployed in Gaza?
If it is attacked by terrorist groups or Gazans, how will it survive unless it has the serious backing of the international community. So far the US and others have not indicated they will do much in Gaza.
The US-built pier is an example of this. On the other hand if the force ends up like UNIFIL then it will just be a cover for Hamas to rebuild its terror networks in Gaza.
WHAT CAN WE LEARN from the US experience in the West Bank? The position of US security coordinator who works with the Palestinian Authority has existed since 2005, but the PA failed to prevent Hamas from taking over the Gaza Strip in 2007.
The coordinator did help the PA security forces become more professional after 2007, but they lacked basic equipment like proper ballistic helmets. Some of their units were trained in Jordan and then sent back to the West Bank. The current US Security Coordinator is Lt.-Gen. Michael R. Fenzel who assumed his position as the US Security Coordinator for Israel and the PA in November 2021.
If we look at how the PA security forces have fared in the last two years their record is not great. They have lost control of Jenin and Tulkarm in the northern West Bank. They almost lost control of Nablus. They face increasing challenges from terror groups and armed gangs with access to better rifles than the PA, the result of massive arms smuggling, some of it fueled by Iran-linked groups who seek to destabilize the West Bank and Jordan.
Israel is now forced to carry out frequent raids and even air strikes in the northern West Bank. Islamic terrorists are now building IEDs, targeting Israeli troops. This does not look like a good model for Gaza. If the PA can’t control the West Bank, how will its troops fare in Gaza?
A force of 2,500 troops will have no end of trouble controlling Gaza. They won’t be well armed and they won’t want to fight against Hamas. They will likely end up as a kind of fig leaf with Hamas and the IDF continuing to control things.
The lessons of history tell us that nature abhors a vacuum. If there is a power vacuum in Gaza, Hamas will return to fill it. Hamas doesn’t mind hiding underneath a US or Arab government-backed scheme because than it can rebuild tunnels under the ruins while above ground the PA and NGOs and the UN have to deal with the civilians.
This will free up Hamas to rebuild its empire of terror. If Israel is prevented from carrying out raids on Hamas as an interim force, then this will be a present to Hamas.
Unless the interim force has real power behind it, and the backing of the local population, it will likely fail miserably.
It’s likely that such a scheme will even fail to get off the ground unless those involved take this initiative more seriously than they have so far in planning for the ‘day after’ over the last nine months.
END
ISRAEL/SYRIA
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
END
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA/NATO
Trajectory to Armageddon [i] – by Aleks
Robert H:
“Sadly, there is much more true to this than what people know. There are a number of forecasts that suggest that neither America or Europe will exist in present form by 2032. The time to alter the course is very short.
Already this latest NATO conference in DC is about the partition of Ukraine. Orban knows this and is hoping to find a path through the storm. It took Poland one day to walk back it’s bravado about shooting down Russian missiles and or planes realizing it had no NATO support even if there is a deal with Zelensky. Zelensky would sell Poland out in a heartbeat if he could for a dollar. Poland is as expendable as the last Ukrainian. And Article 5 means nothing if they want to fight Russia on Zelensky’s behalf.
His crowd is beating the drums for Ukrainians living abroad to join in a new military formation to go back to fight in Ukraine for the lost country trained in the US. A dream of fools and certain death.
When Chinese troops entered Belarus, the signpost of change should be read. Russia is no longer on its own, when it comes to manpower. And yes, North Korean engineering observers are being trained in Ukraine to pass on knowledge back home. It is not so hard to imagine large scale troop movements if needed in the future. “
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
the one good thing that Biden is doing: not letting strikes deeper into Russia
(zero hedge)
Zelensky Angry US Won’t Lift Restrictions On Strikes Deeper Into Russia
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 01:05 PM
Anything Zelensky had to say Thursday at the close of the NATO summit in Washington was overshadowed by President Biden’s verbal flub where he introduced the Ukrainian leader as “President Putin”.
But among the more interesting statements of Zelensky was the demand for his Western backers, especially the US, to lift all restrictions on arms used to attack inside Russian territory.
“If we want to win, if we want to prevail, if we want to save our country and to defend it, we need to lift all the limitations,” Zelensky said while standing alongside NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in the summit’s closing session.
The Ukrainian president argued that this is crucial for “having Ukraine on the map” and not allowing Russia to “attack half of the planet.”
“That is a crazy question why we can’t answer and attack these… military bases from where these guided bombs from jets or missiles came, targeted us and killed our children,” Zelensky continued, clearly criticizing his own more powerful backers.
So far the White House has greenlighted using US-weapons against Russian territory from which its forces are attacking, thus confining strikes to not far inside Russia’s border.
President Biden at his evening press conference responded to Zelensky’s words, based on a reporter’s question, and showed an unwillingness to change policy (at least for now) based on Kiev’s demands. Referencing his national security and defense advisers, Biden said:
“If he had the capacity to strike Moscow, strike the Kremlin, would that make sense?” Biden said of Zelenskyy. He later added, “We’re making it on a day-to-day basis … how far they should go in” to Russian territory.
Thus he did acknowledge that this dangerous, escalatory policy which threatens to draw Washington directly into the fight could change at any moment.
Among the other aspects to the NATO summit which suggests further escalation with Russia is that Ukraine was offered an “irreversible” path toward membership. According to what is spelled out in the annual summit’s final communique:
It said Ukraine had made “concrete progress” on “required democratic, economic, and security reforms” in recent months – but that a formal membership invitation would only be extended when “conditions are met”.
“As Ukraine continues this vital work, we will continue to support it on its irreversible path to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including Nato membership,” the statement added.
Russia responded to this, with former Russian president and top national security adviser Dmitry Medvedev saying that this means either Ukraine must go or NATO must go altogether.
He said Thursday: “The conclusion is obvious. We have to do everything to make sure that the ‘irreversible path of Ukraine’ towards NATO ends with either the disappearance of Ukraine, or the disappearance of NATO. Better, both.”
Medvedev’s fiery words suggest the Kremlin sees this increasingly as a growing and direct conflict with the whole of the Western military alliance, and not just with Ukraine forces.
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Clandestine (substack) again striking fear deep into the hearts of the evil medieval enemies like Obama who is telling illegals to vote illegally; IMAGINE that, Obama is telling illegals to VOTE
para Obama: “if you want to vote, no one, no ID demand, nothing can stop you”…I think Obama was confused, he thought this was Kenya where he was born, he thought he was talking to the lady making
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 11 |
the fake birth certificate…oh crap, that lady who then suddenly died!
planned to sneak in the early debate, catch Trump to accept, knowing Biden was declining by the day; not to WIN debate but at least to ‘get by’ & then claim he is too busy so pull out of other debates
DR. PAUL ALEXANDER
JUL 12
READ IN APP
The issue to these people is job security and no one coming in to unmask their wrongs…I guess any administration. And so, the Biden folk are very concerned for Biden is their conduit to job security at least for next 4 years and also to ensure no investigations go forward. As I have said, many involved and Biden INC. are running him to stay out of jail. He is their ‘get out of jail’ or ‘stay out of jail card’, it is how these people think. They were never going to attend another debate once they got the first one done above water. Now they have to debate (I argue 45 must insist on 2 more and one must be Town Hall) and as crazy as this is, it may be better some say to swap him out than do another debate for it will crash the party too. Can have a pull down of many persons house and senate.
Game they told me was that they crafted this plan to pull out of additional debates and just to sneak him over the victory line (keep him mostly hidden and tightly scripted) for they all know and knew 2.5 to 3 years now (I argue 4) he was neurologically impaired and not mentally fit and incapable to campaign and debate properly and it was fading fast…Biden should not have ran 4 years ago, he was mentally unfit then…so once they could get him to elections and sneak out a win, then they would be safe from investigations and a week after elections Biden would resign out of fading health and the VP would take over and a new VP would be appointed; that was the plan…now with what has happened and focus on Biden’s clear devastating mental health and capacity to string 2 sentences together, they are as scared knowing if he does pull it off, that he now cannot resign as planned for now he and they are defending him saying he is healthy and fine….so they are cornered. They say best option is to swap him out now…for how can you be telling the public you are fine and do win the election then suddenly resign out of ill health? Yet everyone knows it is not even about 4 more years, it is about Biden cannot be left to serve as POTUS now, not for another day! It is a risk to the nation.
Alexander MAGA COVID News; a PCR manufactured COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
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What is incredible is how ‘silence’ and cover-up reporting is used by the media to hurt one POTUS and yet help another e.g. the media was silent and complicit on the harms and deadliness of the COVID lockdown lunacy, on the truth, the fraud of the fake PCR created non-pandemic, and the lies of the mRNA vaccine and the harms and death it was causing so that it could hurt Trump as it would be HIS fault (in other words they lied and deceived about the truth and pretended, and also silent on Biden’s health so that it could help him…silence to ‘hurt’ one POTUS and silence to ‘help’ another…the silence and pretense was based on complicity and it worked to harm one POTUS and help another.
EVOL NEWS
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LATEST NEWS:
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Covid-Vaxxed Far More Likely to Die Than UnvaxxedYet another study from leading scientific researchers has emerged that warns of the devastating impact on public health caused by the Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE |
| Major Bank Launches ‘Carbon Footprint Tracker’ to Crack Down on Meat & Dairy PurchasesA major British multinational bank has launched a new “carbon footprint tracker” that monitors customers’ spending in order to crack down on purchases of meat and dairy products.READ MORE |
| CNN Stunned at Biden Campaign’s Response to Democrat Megadonor George Clooney’s Call to Step AsidePresident Joe Biden’s campaign has blasted Hollywood star and major Democrat megadonor George Clooney, leaving CNN anchor Jake Tapper stunned.READ MORE |
| Democrat Lawmaker Arrested on Felony Forgery ChargesA Democrat lawmaker in Alabama has been arrested by authorities on felony charges, according to reports.READ MORE |
| Trump Ignites Marco Rubio VP Speculation at Florida RallyPresident Donald Trump hyped up speculation about his vice-presidential pick at an energetic rally in Florida.READ MORE |
| GOP Rep Wesley Hunt Demands ‘Investigations’ into Biden’s Health Cover-UpRepublican Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX) is calling for a full investigation into the apparent cover-up of Democrat President Joe Biden’s cognitive decline.READ MORE |
| Red States Call on Supreme Court to Block Biden’s Student Debt Forgiveness PlanSeveral Republican-led states have called on the United States Supreme Court to block Democrat President Joe Biden’s plans to wipe the debts of college-educated voters with taxpayer money ahead of the November elections.READ MORE |
| Three Democrat Senators Admit Biden Has No Chance of Beating Trump in NovemberThree top Senate Democrats have reportedly admitted that President Joe Biden cannot win re-election in November.READ MORE |
| Ex-Hillary Clinton Aide Huma Abedin Gets Engaged to George Soros’ SonGeorge Soros’ son and heir Alex has just got engaged to Hillary Clinton’s former top aide Huma Abedin.READ MORE |
| AOC Files Articles of Impeachment against SCOTUS Justices Thomas & Alito for Alleged ‘Unchecked Corruption’Radical Democrat Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has filed articles of impeachment against two conservative Supreme Court justices.READ MORE |
| George Clooney Begs ‘Friend’ Biden to Drop Out: ‘We Are Not Going to Win in November with This President’Hollywood star and major Democrat fundraiser George Clooney has begged President Joe Biden to drop out of the presidential race to let another candidate take his place.READ MORE |
| Texas Officials Slam Biden’s ‘Complete Lie’ about Hurricane BerylTexas leadership officials have accused Democrat President Joe Biden of “turning Hurricane Beryl into a political issue.”READ MORE |
| Illegal Alien Jailed for Raping 13-Year-Old Child in VirginiaAn illegal alien from Honduras has been handed a five-year prison sentence after he was convicted of raping a 13-year-old child in Virginia.READ MORE |
The latest reports from Slay News
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0890 UP .0016
USA/ YEN 159.06 UP 0.777 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2959 UP .0036
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3621 DOWN .0003 (CDN DOLLAR UP 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 451.05 PTS OR 2.59%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.89%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 461.05 PTS OR 2.59 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.91 PTS OR 0.03%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .89%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1003.34 PTS OR 2.45%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2400.79
silver:$30.71
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 104.00 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.069% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.051% DOWN 3 AND 5/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.245 UP 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.782 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4910 UP 3 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0900 UP 0.0027 OR 27 basis points
USA/Japan: 157.84 DOWN 0.431 OR YEN IS UP 43 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.155 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0002 OR 2 BASIS pts to 1.3625
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2508 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2688)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.04 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.051…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.201% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.417 UP 1 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.485 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2408.30
SILVER AT 11;30: 30.90
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 29.57 PTS OR 0.36%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 213.62 PTS OR 1.15%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 97.19 PTS OR 1.27 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 80.60 OR 0.72%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 262.41 PTS OR 0.76% PTS
WTI Oil price 83.21 12EST/
Brent Oil: 85.89 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.02 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 50/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4910 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.155 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0910 UP 0.0036 OR 36 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2989 UP 0.0066 OR 66 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.156 UP 4 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.051
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.24 down .447 YEN up 45 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3628 UP 0004 //CDN dollar DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.18
Brent OIL: 85.03
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS pts to 4.180
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.390%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 6 PTS AT 4.450
USA dollar index: 103.75 DOWN 38 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.03 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 87.87 UP 0 AND 87/100 roubles
GOLD 2,413.80 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.84 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 241.96 PTS OR 0.61%
NASDAQ UP 104.43 PTS OR 0.52 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 12.47 DOWN 0.45 PTS OR 3.48%
GLD: $223.11 DOWN 0.14 OR 0.63%
SLV/ $28.12 DOWN 0.56 OR 1.95%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Small Caps Break-Out To Best Week In 8 Months; Bonds & Bullion Big Week On Bad Data
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 04:00 PM
A bad data week…
Source: Bloomberg
…was good news for doves as rate-cut expectations soared…
Source: Bloomberg
…and despite yesterday’s bloodbathery, all the US majors managed to rally into the green for the week early on today, with Small Caps literally exploding higher (up around 7% on the week!). A late-day selloff dragged Nasdaq red on the week though…
That was the Russell 2000’s best week since November and broke it out to its highest since Jan 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
…and the biggest RTY/NDX outperformance week since Nov 2020…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were aided by a massive short-squeeze this week which saw “most shorted” stocks soaring 10% – the biggest squeeze since Dec…
Source: Bloomberg
And while MAG7 stocks ended the week lower, it was only marginally, as today’s bounce back erased some of yesterday’s losses…but the late-day selling was predominantly among the mega-cap tech names…
Source: Bloomberg
And of course, after yesterday saw all 7 names ending red (for the first time since April), the rebound today was ‘inevitable’…
Source: Bloomberg
0-DTE tracked stocks up and down today but the late-day selling pressure in stocks was NOT related to 0-DTE flow, in fact they bought the dip…
Stocks vs bonds this week… no idea!!!
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled on the week, led by the short-end…
Source: Bloomberg
…which prompted a dramatic bull steepening and almost un-inversion of the curve (2s30s)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar tumbled for the second straight week (the biggest two-week drop since December), erasing all of the gains seen since June payrolls…
Source: Bloomberg
Thanks in large part to USDJPY and BoJ ‘help’…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin managed gains on the week as ETF inflows dominated the German govt’s dumpfest (as they emptied their coffers of every coin)…
Source: Bloomberg
BTC ETFs saw inflows for 5 straight days…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged back up near record highs this week, closing the week back above $2400…
Source: Bloomberg
Thanks to weakness today, crude prices ended the week lower as WTI rejected $83.50…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, it was a big week for market moves but in the big picture equities remain in a universe of their own relative to global liquidity…
Source: Bloomberg
Are stocks expecting a massive liquidity fest?
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
this is future inflation: PPI surges at fastest pace
US Producer Prices Surge At Fastest Pace In 15 Months As Services Costs Soar
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 08:38 AM
After yesterday’s soft CPI, this morning’s PPI seems somewhat ‘less than’ but as we noted earlier, in fact it is key to the ongoing disinflationary trend (and in fact suggests all may not be trending smoothly).
After May’s MoM deflationary impulse (thanks to a plunge in energy costs), June was expected to see a modest 0.1% rise (and we have seen energy prices starting to rise again). Sure enough, headline PPI printed HOT at +0.2% MoM (and May was revised higher), pushing the YoY print up to 2.6% (well above the 2.3% expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is the highest PPI since March 2023.
Core PPI rose by 0.4% MoM (double the 0.2% exp), sending the YoY price rise up by 3.0% (also the hottest since March 2023)…
Source: Bloomberg
The jump in PPI was driven by a resurgence in Services costs as Energy remains deflationary (for now)…
Source: Bloomberg
The June rise in the index for final demand can be traced to a 0.6-percent increase in prices for final demand services. In contrast, the index for final demand goods decreased 0.5 percent
Perhaps worse still, the pipeline for PPI (intermediate demand) is accelerating…
Source: Bloomberg
This is not what the doves wanted to see…
END
not good for the USA economy
“Stubbornly Subdued” – UMich Sentiment Slumps As Home-Buying Conditions Hit Record-Low
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 10:16 AM
UMich consumer sentiment slumped in preliminary July data with Current Conditions at their lowest since Dec 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
UMich Director Joanne Hsu warned: “Although sentiment is more than 30% above the trough from June 2022, it remains stubbornly subdued.“
“Nearly half of consumers still object to the impact of high prices, even as they expect inflation to continue moderating in the years ahead.
With the upcoming election, consumers perceived substantial uncertainty in the trajectory of the economy, though there is little evidence that the first presidential debate altered their economic views.”
On the positive side, year-ahead inflation expectations fell for the second consecutive month, reaching 2.9%. In comparison, these expectations ranged between 2.3 to 3.0% in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 2.9%, down from 3.0% last month and remaining remarkably stable over the last three years.
Source: Bloomberg
However, these expectations remain somewhat elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.
Buying Conditions plunged across the board with home-buying attitudes crashing to record lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Democrats saw the biggest drop in sentiment…
Source: Bloomberg
…but, but , but Bidenomics?
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
a must read
Brandon Smith…
Trump’s Return: Get Ready For Chaos To Be Unleashed And Blamed On You
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 08:45 AM
Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us
Yeah, it’s happening. The last half of 2024 is shaping up to be one of the most politically insane in a century and the sparks are already flying. The biggest moment of absurdity so far might be the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, in which it was made abundantly clear for all the world to see that Biden is on the fast track to crazy town. We’ve been saying for four years that the guy is gone, a dementia case propped up and protected by the DNC and the media. Now, it’s undeniable:
There’s a vegetable sitting in the Oval Office and the nation is in a panic.
Leftists are panicking because they’re now realizing their candidate is a farce, the emperor has no clothes and they bet all their cash on one very retarded race horse. Conservatives are celebrating, but also panicking because they think Biden in his senility might launch nukes at any moment.
There are even people calling for a 25th Amendment intervention to remove Biden because they actually think he makes decisions. He doesn’t. Biden is a proxy for more powerful interests and always has been. Getting rid of Biden early doesn’t solve the greater problem, nor would it prevent a nuclear Apocalypse (if that was ever the plan to begin with). Other people are making his decisions for him.
In the meantime, there are a host of surprises that could take place before November. As I noted in my article ‘The Juggling Act: Is 2024 A Pivotal Year For The Globalists?’ published in January, the election of 2024 is developing into its own Black Swan event. I stated that:
“…There is the potential for shock events, such as Biden stepping down at the last minute. Trump being arrested but winning anyway. Or, a major geopolitical crisis which is used by the Democrats as an excuse to “postpone” the election…”
It’s looking more and more like at least one of these scenarios is about to play out (Biden stepping down or being pushed out by the DNC). It’s also becoming increasingly more likely that Donald Trump will return to the White House regardless. For now it appears that Biden wants to cling to his position, but even if he is replaced there’s not a Democrat candidate yet that has the numbers to prevail in November. And if you think election fraud will be a factor, don;t forget that the votes have to be close in order to rig the outcome.
The question is, what will this mean for conservatives and patriots going forward? Is this cause for elation, or should Americans be getting ready for the rug to be pulled out from underneath them?
After Trump’s win in 2016 (which I predicted a year ahead of the elections) I suggested that Trump might be set up as the next Herbert Hoover; the scapegoat for a host of economic and social calamities caused by obscure and shadowy interests. I also questioned whether or not Trump would be a willing participant in this theater.
Keep in mind, his cabinet picks in 2016 were a nightmare – Packed with a swarm of banking elites, a member of the Rothschild cartel (Wilber Ross), CFR members and other bad actors. He truly had some of the worst people standing over his shoulder at the time (like Anthony Fauci, for example…). Even if Trump had good intentions, his advisers certainly did not.
With the combination of BLM riots, Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, the pandemic hysteria, covid stimulus triggering stagflation, the January 6th “insurrection”, Trump was turned into a pariah (for the most part unjustly). Conservatives in 2020 and beyond were labeled the ultimate villains; the “destroyers of democracy.” Trump was, in many ways, pigeonholed as another Hoover.
But something happened during this process that I believe the globalists did not intend; the pandemic agenda failed. The vaccine passports failed. The mandates failed. The average infection fatality rate was a tiny 0.23% and the public was not sufficiently terrified. Too many patriots were refusing to comply. The CDC numbers on vaccinations were clearly inflated to make it look like more people were taking the jab. Almost no one took the boosters.
It was perhaps one of the biggest blunders the globalists have ever faced. The WEF’s Klaus Schwab, Dr. Evil himself, has faded into the background and retired as executive chairman. The big play for medical tyranny bombed. Now what to do?
Is it a mistake that the establishment has continued to stick with Biden despite his delirium? Or, did they send Biden into that first debate knowing exactly how bad it was going to go? Is this a ploy designed to complete the Herbert Hoover scenario? This year, Trump hinted in an interview with Fox Business that he “does not want to become the next Herbert Hoover” inheriting a time bomb economy from Biden. Biden argued in response that Trump was ALREADY like Herbert Hoover because of the jobs lost during covid.
This is, of course, a false claim. But the narrative is everywhere: “Trump will oversee a crash in America similar to 1929.”
Consider for a moment how many different elements of the US economy today are misrepresented by rigged stats. Biden has suppressed inflation stats like CPI by dumping strategic oil reserves onto the market. His employment stats are a complete circus with almost every job “created” going to illegal immigrants, artificially pumping up BLS numbers. Biden has created false growth in American manufacturing by subsidizing green energy companies with tax dollars. The media seems intent to ignore the national debt issue, with interest payments amassing over $1 trillion every three months. Finally, the border surge continues unabated (except for a 74% decrease in Texas where they are putting up actual walls and barbed wire).
And how about that Ukraine situation? The one which is quickly escalating into wider conflict? My readers know my predictions on this but think about it from Trump’s perspective: Biden is leaving behind all the volatile elements of a world war in the making. Trump will be inheriting a cauldron of nitroglycerine.
What happens when Biden walks away? All of that economic rigging disappears, and then the real data comes out while Trump is in office. Maybe WWIII kicks off, too. And guess who will be blamed? The fingers will point at Trump, but they will also point at YOU.
The agenda will be to put conservative and liberty movement principles on trial and paint them as ideals of calamity. Meritocracy, individualism, independence, personal liberty, responsibility and discipline, free markets, private property, everything that makes up the foundations of western civilization is going to be put on the pyre. Giving Trump an easy win against a cognitive deficient like Biden (or any other weak candidate) might be a setup; letting conservatives gain a moment of power only to find they’re sitting on the throne of a crumbling castle.
Am I saying don’t to vote for Trump? No. At the very least, the act of voting for Trump sends a message that the American people want what Trump is supposed to represent, and they reject what Biden is supposed to represent. The candidates are far less important than the ideals they are meant to embody. What I’m saying is, this election might be extra weird for a reason – the fact that Trump is being elevated as the clear choice is suspicious.
At the very least there will be organized leftist riots in major cities across the US. As we witnessed in France, the political left has no intention of giving up power and they will do anything to keep it, including burn down the neighborhood. More reserved liberals will join forces with the most extreme socialist activist groups in order to win at any cost. Trump’s presence in the Oval Office would be the perfect trigger for an endless parade of DEI clowns and Antifa freaks creating as much pandemonium as possible.
I’m not talking about the false left/right paradigm. The false left/right paradigm is irrelevant when it comes to the root problem, which is the preponderance of patriot action or apathy. If the American people in large numbers stood up tomorrow and all at once decided we were going to shut down the leftists, boot out the globalists and take the government back, we would succeed and there’s nothing anyone could do to stop us. We’re the largest armed population in the world and by extension the largest army in the world by far.
It’s up to us, not Trump, to determine the course of our nation’s future. And if he (or any other political leader) fails to live up to our standards, then at that point we’ll have to do the ugly thing that everyone knows is necessary but no one wants to be responsible for. Just remember that we’re going to be painted as bad guys, not freedom fighters, when we take that step.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
Watch: Boeing 777 Suffers Serious Tail Strike During Takeoff At Milan
FRIDAY, JUL 12, 2024 – 09:05 AM
Dramatic footage from the largest airport in northern Italy, which serves Lombardy, Piedmont, Liguria, and the Swiss canton of Ticino, captures the moment a LATAM Airlines Boeing 777-300 experienced a severe tail strike incident.
Aviation blog AIRLIVE reports that a LATAM Boeing 777-300 departing from Milan Malpensa Airport to Sao Paulo suffered a tail strike on runway 35, left.
“The Boeing aircraft is seen performing the rotation too early making the tail to strike the runway for 10 seconds before finally climbing,” AIRLIVE wrote.
The leading cause of tail strikes in the aviation world is premature rotation by the pilot of an aircraft. However, an investigation needs to be conducted into this incident to see whether the incident was a human error or perhaps a mechanical one.
AIRLIVE said, “As the tower noticed the pilots, the B777 climbed to 6,000 ft before circling for about one hour. It landed back at Milan on runway 35R one hour and 9 minutes after departure.”
Local media outlet VareseNews posted CCTV footage of the incident on YouTube, along with a caption that read (translated into English):
The accident which occurred at Malpensa at 1.32pm on Tuesday 9 July is part of a codified type of accident, called “tail strike”: it occurs when the tail of a plane touches the runway during take-off or landing. This type of accident can cause significant damage to the aircraft structure, compromising its integrity and safety. During a tail strike, the lower part of the rear fuselage, including the tail, suffers a direct impact with the ground, causing abrasions, deformations and, in more serious cases, failure of the structure.
Earlier this week, a series of aviation mishaps occurred in the US, including:
Monday: United Flight 1001, a Boeing 757-200, lost a main landing gear wheel while taking off from Los Angeles International Airport.
Monday: A Delta Connection flight nearly collided with an American Eagle flight at Syracuse Hancock International Airport
Wednesday: United Flight 1001, a Boeing 757-200, lost a main landing gear wheel while taking off from Los Angeles International Airport.
This week has yet to inspire much confidence in the aviation industry following a series of Boeing jet mishaps this year.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
VDH: Our Brezhnev, Our Pravda, Our Soviet Union…
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 05:40 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
Leonid Brezhnev led the former Soviet Union as General Secretary of the Communist Party until 1982. But like most Russian apparatchiks who excessively smoked, drank, and gained weight, he aged prematurely. Also like them, his disabilities never led to his abdication.
By Brezhnev’s late sixties and early seventies, he was too ill to travel abroad or make public appearances. Indeed, his debility left the Soviet Union without a real leader for the final six or seven years of his tenure.
Brezhnev got away with it because the Soviet state-controlled media doctored photos and videos to attest to his supposedly vigorous health and constant hands-on involvement.
“Journalists” sent out false communiques. They spun narratives that Brezhnev was robust, hale, and working long hours on behalf of the Russian people. Any dissenting journalists who sought to report the true, sad state of affairs were in danger of losing their jobs, freedom—or even their lives.
Instead, the “reporters” of Pravda (“Truth”), the official print megaphone of the Central Committee of the Communist Party, wrote lies about Brezhnev’s busy workdays. Pravda’s handlers spun fables about the respect (and fear) the rest of the world held for such a dynamic leader—even as Brezhnev became an ill virtual recluse.
The cynical Russian people shrugged because they had long been accustomed to their lying media and the falsehoods they peddled. And besides, Brezhnev was a doctrinaire Stalinist communist. So his job was not to rock the boat or upset the Russian communist hierarchy.
Instead, he reigned over the penultimate Soviet “era of stagnation,” while an ossified communism increasingly destroyed all incentives and hope, leaving the Russian people poor, cynical, and helpless.
Something similar has happened to a calcified America under President Joe Biden. Like the late-stage Leonid Brezhnev, Biden is now a president in name only. He has outsourced his administration to a vestigial hard-left apparat from the Obama years.
Now, Biden can no longer even perform his assigned ceremonial tasks of putting a moderate veneer on radical, nihilist agendas that are stagnating the country.
Yet our Pravda journalists have sworn to the American people that, in private, the reclusive, three-day-a-week Biden outpaces the energy and drive of those half his age. Obsequious staffers plant stories in the Soviet-like ears of reporters about Biden’s singular dynamism.
Any dissenters are publicly demonized as peddlers of “cheap fakes.”
When Biden’s reclusiveness prompts too much gossip that he is near senile, he is wheeled out for a staged interview that must be edited before release. Or he answers questions secretly shown to him in advance.
On sporadic occasions where the state media and the Biden nomenklatura cannot control events—such as rare presidential debates or international summits—our Pravda media go into overdrive to convince the public that what they see and hear is not real.
In the end, Brezhnev could not even hobble to the May Day dais to celebrate communism’s national holiday.
He soon reached the point that his debilities were so manifest that even his hirelings and the media could not hide them. He then vanished from public view, leaving the Russian people with no idea as to who was running their communist nation.
Then one day, Soviet propagandists announced suddenly but matter-of-factly that the dynamic Brezhnev had died and that his successor, Yuri Andropov, was now brilliantly running the Soviet Union.
Biden, too, is at that point of stasis.
He cannot do press conferences, town halls, debates, or real interviews. To do so would confirm to the public the truth: that Biden is too cognitively challenged to continue his presidency.
And yet the cloistered Biden can no longer hide during a campaign season with his accustomed three-day workweek.
The media has done its best to continue its Orwellian ruse.
They claim that Trump interrupted Biden (he did not) in the recent debate and that he lied (if so, not as much as did Biden). Sometimes, the press corps just blurts out that an inert, left-wing Biden is still preferable to a dynamic, conservative Trump.
What is next for our increasingly Soviet state?
We will continue to be lectured on the vigor of Biden—until one day we aren’t, when Biden either steps down—or worse.
Then, our Pravda will likely present the new official narrative.
They will convince us that his successor, Vice President Kamala Harris, is an underappreciated genius whose past portfolios led to solving the border crisis and renewing American dominance in space.
One day, the same reporters who swore Biden was a virtual Socrates behind closed doors and then suddenly just confessed he was not when their lies were no longer operative will sing the praises of our new comrade leader—the brilliant, accomplished, eloquent, and articulate Kamala Harris.
NEWT GINGRICH
END
SWAMP NEWS
Biden Camp Thinks Obama Working ‘Behind The Scenes’ Orchestrating Calls To Drop Out
THURSDAY, JUL 11, 2024 – 03:00 PM
The Biden campaign thinks former President Barack Obama is working behind the scenes to orchestrate calls for President Biden to quit the 2024 race, The Hill reports.
“One thing that we do have to underline here — just so viewers can follow what’s going on behind the scenes — is the Biden campaign and many Democratic officials do believe that Barack Obama is quietly working behind the scenes to orchestrate this,” said MSNBC host Joe Scarborough during a Thursday broadcast, adding that Biden is “deeply resentful of his treatment under not only the Obama staff but also the way he was pushed aside for Hillary Clinton” in 2016.
Co-host Mika Brzezinski chimed in – adding “I think Barack Obama has a lot of influence, and there’s a lot there.“
Watch:
BREAKING: MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough: “What’s going on behind the scenes is the Biden campaign and many Democratic officials do believe that Barack Obama is quietly working behind the scenes to orchestrate this.”
·
343.7K Views
The report comes amid a growing contingent of top Democrats and left-leaning news outlets publicly calling for Biden to exit the race following last month’s disastrous debate performance against Donald Trump.
On Wednesday, actor George Clooney – an ally of both Biden and Obama – published an op-ed in the NY Times calling for Biden to step aside. According to the report, Clooney and Obama discussed the op-ed beforehand.
As we noted earlier on Thursday, Democrats are now ‘quietly testing’ VP Kamala Harris’ viability against Trump, while Biden advisers are ‘discussing how to convince him to step aside.’
The Biden campaign, meanwhile, continues to dig in.
In a Thursday memo to campaign staff, Biden campaign chair Jennifer O’Malley Dillon and campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez wrote: “In addition to what we believe is a clear pathway ahead for us, there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump,” adding “Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees will always be unreliable, and surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter. The only Democratic candidate for whom this is already baked in is President Biden.”
KING REPORT
| The King Report July 12, 2024 Issue 7282 | Independent View of the News |
| Yesterday’s King Report: Numerous traders and pundits believe a big part of the equity surge yesterday was due to someone having inside information about the June CPI Report, including Powell. June CPI -0.1% m/m & 3% y/y, +0.1% & 3.1% exp; Core 0.1% m/m & 3.3% y/y, 0.2% m/m & 3.4% exp US Jobless Claims (July 6) 22k, 235k expected, prior 239k from 238k US Continuing Claims (June 29) 1.852m, 1.86m expected, prior 1.856m from 1.858m The ‘good’ June CPI Report was clearly telegraphed by Powell: He was hawkish to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and dovish to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday. It should also be no surprise that the besieged Biden needed a good CPI Report and the BLS delivered. A 3.8% m/m tumble in gasoline was the prime factor in reducing June CPI to -0.1% m/m. Fuel oil fell 2.4%; Used cars & trucks prices declined 1.5%. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm @KathyJones: Breakdown of “super core” CPI https://t.co/Z10crVTCQg The yen rallied over 2% versus the dollar. Though bonds rallied, the long end did NOT rally as much as one would expect in the early going. As we have previously opined, Mr. Bond fears the US budget deficit will soar in the coming recession. USUs hit a high of 120 11/32 at 10:02 ET. They then rolled over and fell to 119 23/32 at 13:43 ET. Fed liberals are now hectoring for a rate cut (to aid & abet Biden). Goolsbee advocated for a rate cut and said a rate cut would NOT be political. (Is lying by US solons at an all-time high?) (SF Fed Pres) Dally Says Fed Rate Adjustment Likely Warranted after Latest Data – BBG Gasoline hit a low in mid-June; it is rallying in July. Gasoline has been the major depressor for CPI. Unless another major component declines sharply this month, July CPI should be much higher than June. Fangs got hammered; the NY Fang+ Index sank as much as 4.1%. The DJTA and Russell 2k soared. There was a rotation out of Mag 7 and leading stocks, and into laggards (Russell 2000, DJTA, etc.) Traders with gray hairs should recall that rotations into laggards when stocks indices are at all-time highs is a very, very late play in the bull market. ESUs were moderately negative and sideways from the Nikkei opening until they spiked higher on the June CPI Report. ESUs hit a daily high of 5707.75 at 8:35 ET. They retreated to 5680.50 at 9 ET. The rally for the NYSE open and pump & dump pushed ESUs to 5695.00 at 10:06 ET. Aggressive selling forced ESUs to a daily low of 5630.00 at 13:46 ET. ESUs bottomed bumped until 14:12 ET. After a labored rally to 5647.75 at 15:35 ET, ESUs retreated modestly and traded sideways into the close. U.S. June budget deficit shrinks to $66 billion after calendar shifts (‘They’ are rigging more US data!) The U.S. government recorded a $66 billion budget deficit for June that was reduced sharply by a shift of benefit payments into May that ballooned that month’s deficit to $347 billion, the Treasury Department said on Thursday… Without the June calendar adjustments in both years, the Treasury said the June 2024 deficit would have been $159 billion, up 3% or $5 billion from the year-ago gap… https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-june-budget-deficit-shrinks-66-billion-after-calendar-shifts-2024-07-11/ Yes Virginia, the US government is and has been rigging economic and financial data to deceive Americans and bolster Joe Biden. NFP has been consistently overstated; CPI doesn’t remotely measure real inflation. If ‘they’ would perpetrate a fraud about the POTUS’s mental condition, there is no limit to their lying, fraud, and perfidy. US Deficit Reaches $1.27 Trillion in Fiscal Year-to-Date – BBG Interest on debt continues to propel borrowing needs Tax receipts hit June record aided by disaster deferals Treasury officials said much of the year-over-year gains could be attributed to a deferral of tax deadlines from fiscal 2023 into this year… @elonmusk: Having seen the evidence unearthed today by Congress, 𝕏 has no choice but to file suit against the perpetrators and collaborators in the advertising boycott racket. Hopefully, some states will consider criminal prosecution. US to deploy hypersonic missiles in Germany that could strike Russia Washington will start deploying SM-6, Tomahawk and hypersonic missiles in Germany from 2026… Mr Pistorius (German Defense Minister) had expressed frustration earlier this week that Germany, which is wrestling with a budget crisis because of government spending limits, has not pledged more funding for the Bundeswehr… The move will anger the Kremlin… https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/07/11/us-to-deploy-hypersonic-missiles-in-germany/ Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA and Russell 2000 (biggest rally since 11/23) soared on rotational buying. Negative aspects of previous session USUs rescinded most of their rally and were just +19/32 at the NYSE close. Mag 7/Fangs got eviscerated. ESUs and the S&P 500 Index declined sharply. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Did the June CPI and Powell Rallies create a short-term top? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5601.17 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5642.45; 5576.53 (NATO Day 3) @RNCResearch: Biden is cooked this morning — just follow the leader, Joe. https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1811412006538223721 Italian PM Giorgia Meloni rolls eyes, checks imaginary watch waiting for Biden’s arrival at NATO Summit https://trib.al/nv7D36D @bennyjohnson: Biden introduces Zelenskyy as Putin (PRICELESS!): “And now I want to hand it over to the president of Ukraine, who has as much courage as he has determination. Ladies and gentlemen, President PUTIN.” (Near end of NATO summit) https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1811518431910363396 Biden’s “Big-Boy Press Conference” was delayed an hour to 18:30 ET, and then delayed to 19:00 ET, and then to 19:30 ET. Fox News said Team Biden was in conflict about the number of questions for “The Big-Boy” presser. Some aides wanted only 4 questions. Others wanted 6 or 7. Yikes! @RNCResearch: Why is there a teleprompter set up for Biden’s press conference? https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1811540777496949143 Joe’s “Big-Boy Press Conference” commenced at 19:27 ET. He began by reading a history of and homage to NATO from his Teleprompter. Joe went off on Putin. He stumbled reading for the first time at 19:32 ET. Joe coughed repeatedly during the first three minutes of the presser. Joe then slammed Trump for saying Putin was a genius for invading Ukraine. Biden: “I will not bow down to Putin… Are you safer; is your family safer (because of NATO)?” Joe then hyped the great June CPI Report. You think the BLS crafted it for Joe? Joe slammed corporate greed for inflation and Trump for wanting more tariffs. Biden said the border is safer now even though Trump killed the bipartisan border deal. Biden then hyped his Israel-Hamas deal. “I’m determined to get this deal done…” Joe then said he was given a list of people to call on. So, this was NOT a “Big Boy Press Conference.” It was another carefully orchestrated event to shelter Biden. Joe butchered the first question, which was about his mental ability and Kamala Harris. Biden said, “Look, I wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president did I think she was not qualified to be president. Let’s start there.” https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1811546099808895093 @RNCResearch: Biden freaks out at a reporter for asking him about referring to Zelensky as “President Putin.” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1811546866263220498 BIDEN: “I created 2,000 jobs just last week! So, if I slow down, I can’t get the job done! That’s a sign that I shouldn’t be doing it!” https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1811549223462260835 Joe did his creepy whisper several times. Biden said it’s not true that he needs to go to bed at 8 pm ET. The Big Guy said, “I’m following the advice of my commander-in-chief, my chief of staff in the military..” Biden excuse for his bad debate: “I love my staff but they add things. They add things all the time at the very end. I’m catching hell from my wife” Anyway...” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1811549670025425355 Biden asserted that he was “determined” to remain in the race, and it was too late to replace him on the ticket: “It’s awful hard to start from scratch.” Joe said “anyway” umpteen times. Biden claimed he has already taken 3 neurological exams, and if his doctors told him he needs a new neurological exam, he would take one. @JesseBWatters: Nobody wants a president who consistently loses their train of thought and just says, “Anyway!” https://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1811562973200048436 @cspan: Biden: “I always have an inclination…just to keep going. I just got to pace myself a bit more.” @RNCResearch: REPORTER: You referred to VP Harris as “VP Trump.” Right now, Trump is using that to mock you. How do you combat that criticism from tonight? BIDEN: “Listen to him!” *shuffles off* https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1811558644552466472 @Heminator: The press has really embarrassed themselves AGAIN. No questions about the fact there’s no cabinet meetings in 9 months? What about the Parkinson’s doctors and cognitive tests? Hunter’s unprecedented new role at the White House? Partisans and cowards. Biden admitted that he was given a list of pre-selected reporters to call upon. Did those reporters/media outlets also submit questions to Team Biden before the presser? PS – The presser lasted 59 minutes. @reesejgorman: House Intel Ranking Member Jim Himes calls on Biden to withdraw after presser. “I hope President Biden will step away from the presidential campaign.” @cnnbrk after Joe’s presser: Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi have spoken privately about Biden’s campaign as Democrats look to steer the president out of the 2024 race, sources say. Biden almost impossible to replace on ballot in Michigan and other states: Democratic county clerk https://trib.al/dE0kfNn White House screened Cabinet officials’ questions for Biden during rare meetings with prez: report Biden has not convened a meeting of his full Cabinet since Oct. 2, 2023, nine months ago… https://nypost.com/2024/07/11/us-news/white-house-screened-cabinet-officials-questions-for-biden-during-rare-meetings-with-prez-report/ Fed Balance Sheet: + 2.559B; Reserves at Fed: +157.797B Today – Traders will play for the Summer Friday Rally. The rotational action on Thursday, plus what appears to have been liquidation into the June CPI Report, could weigh on rally attempts. There is a high probability that a short-term top has formed. NQUs are +0.50; ESUs are +1.50; USUs are -12/32 at 21:05 ET. Expected econ data: June PPI 0.1% m/m & 2.3% y/y’ Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.5% y/y; July UM Sentiment 68.5, Current Conditions 66.1, Expectations 69.6, 1-yr Inflation 2.9%, 5-10-year Inflation 3% S&P Index 50-day MA: 5351; 100-day MA: 5239; 150-day MA: 5094; 200-day MA: 4912 DJIA 50-day MA: 39.063; 100-day MA: 38,922; 150-day MA: 38,508; 200-day MA: 37,394 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5584.54 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5256.61 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5520.84 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5620.21 triggers a buy signal MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough (“Morning Joe” show), a confidant of Joe Biden, reports: “The Biden campaign and many Democratic officials do believe that Barack Obama is quietly working behind the scenes to orchestrate this.” https://x.com/AlexThomp/status/1811384410823954849 @AlexThomp: Despite repeated WH denials of any Obama-Biden tension and the public bromance displays, Biden friend Joe Scarborough says: “Joe Biden is deeply resentful of his treatment under not only the Obama staff but also the way he was pushed aside for Hillary Clinton.” https://t.co/YMGt4rywg5 Politico: Before Hollywood icon and Democratic donor GEORGE CLOONEY published his buzzy and brutal NYT op-ed yesterday calling on Biden to step aside as the nominee, we’re told he reached out to former President BARACK OBAMA to give him a heads-up… Pelosi has been doing some behind-the-scenes maneuvering as well… Pelosi argued on the program that the president needs to make a decision about whether he will step down… Those comments were meant to serve as a subtle green light, one person close with Pelosi said, meant to encourage members to speak up about their desire to see change atop the ticket — and to warn Biden to reconsider staying in the race… In private conversations with lawmakers, we’re told, the former speaker… suggested to people that Biden won’t win this November and should step aside… @GOPIsrael: No surprise: it was Obama who resurrected Biden in 2020 to serve as camouflage for his radical progressives. Now it’s Obama once again who is working to toss his puppet aside and crown a new leader for the Democrats. @AndrewDesiderio: Senate Democrats got “heated” with Biden advisers, according to two Dem senators who were present. A number of Dems told the Biden team that they’re “being put in an untenable position defending something that so many of their constituents felt was obvious.” The message to Biden advisers, per one senator, was: “where has he been? The only way this is going to go away is if he deals with it. And he hasn’t dealt with it. And you guys have been avoiding it.” No polling was shared. It was a “classic campaign pitch.”… Dem sen: “A significant majority of the Democratic senators feel that the president’s not going to be able to win.”… “Having [the debate] early was the right decision in terms of giving us time to get Kamala geared up & ready”… House Dems prepare to break with Biden if he tanks NATO press conference – Politico https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/11/congress/dems-brace-for-bidens-press-conference-00167587 FOX NEWS: NBC News’ Chuck Todd reveals ‘senior’ cabinet secretary told him in 2022 Biden ‘can’t run again like this.‘ (The media now claims they knew about Biden for months, if not years. But they didn’t report about it until they feared Biden would lose to Trump.) Milwaukee radio station admits it scrubbed multiple Biden remarks from interview — at campaign’s request (Who’s the threat to democracy?) https://trib.al/754Jyc9 Biden Campaign Quietly Tests Kamala Harris vs. Trump – NYT The Biden campaign sent a fund-raising email days after the debate promoting a poll that it said showed Biden was the only candidate among potential contenders who could beat Donald Trump. Awkwardly, that survey of voters showed that Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris polled the same numbers in a Trump match-up. So it would be interesting to see what the campaign’s internal polling shows in its re-examination of her chances against Trump as the buzz around Harris grows louder… https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07/11/us/biden-news-trump-election CBS’s @edokeefe: In a memo circulated to staff and to be shared with Democratic senators later today, @JoeBiden campaign says based on its ongoing polling: “…there is also no indication that anyone else would outperform the president vs. Trump. Hypothetical polling of alternative nominees will always be unreliable, and surveys do not take into account the negative media environment that any Democratic nominee will encounter. The only Democratic candidate for whom this is already baked in is President Biden.” The campaign all-but begs Democrats to stop the hand-wringing and op-ed writing: “Next week, Donald Trump and Republicans will hold their convention in Milwaukee, once again putting their extreme Project 2025 agenda front and center for voters. It will be a key moment, and all of us – from President Biden on down – must do our part to take advantage of the opportunity. The surest way to help Donald Trump is to spend his convention talking about our nominating process instead of the MAGA extremism that will be on stage in Milwaukee.” Campaign concedes some slippage post-debate, but “Our internal data and public polling show the same thing: this remains a margin-of-error race in key battleground states.” They conclude there’s “not a sea-change in the state of the race – while some of this movement was from undecided voters to Trump, much of the movement was driven by historically Democratic constituencies moving to undecided. These voters do not like Donald Trump. In internal polling, our post-debate net favorability is 20 percentage points higher than Trump’s among these voters.” @townhallcom: Democrats Can’t Admit Biden Is Too Old, Their Whole Leadership Is Too Old https://t.co/9549Lap3Tl @MikeElk: Biden falsely claimed he helped repeal Delaware’s “Right-to-Work” law as a young senator in 1970s in a viral video @AFLCIO yesterday. But Biden didn’t—the anti-union law was repealed in 1949 in Delaware when he was 7 years old in Scranton, PA. https://t.co/OpuBqplUaR Gov. (MI) Gretchen Whitmer says it ‘wouldn’t hurt’ for Biden to take cognitive assessment as prez denies need (Whitmer has designs on the presidency) https://trib.al/UQAZEWd Dem Sen. (PA) excoriated the Dems that publicly called for Joe to go on Wednesday. He specifically mentioned James Carville. Fetterman said Carville has lived off Ross Perot for over three decades. Without Perot in the 1992 race, Clinton would have never won, and no one would care about Carville. On a private Zoom call, Biden’s top Jewish supporters question his ability to win A Biden campaign spokesperson called the president ‘a busy, in control, crushing it man’ to a skeptical audience of Jewish backers… It didn’t go well… https://jewishinsider.com/2024/07/on-a-private-zoom-call-bidens-top-jewish-supporters-question-his-ability-to-win/ White House defends press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre amid increasing tensions with reporters https://t.co/9PMRHE54dI ABC News exec was ‘furious’ after George Stephanopoulos said Biden can’t serve another White House term: report https://t.co/S1b3laCSyz (She had no problem with ABC’s treatment of DJT!) A big problem for Dems with New York and other assumed safe Democratic states now in play is Dems now must spend money, time, and human resources in blue states instead of battleground states. Now that Kamala Harris is polling back at her horrendously low approval levels, Dems are royally screwed. If they convince Jill and Hunter to get Joe to go, Dems must anoint the whacky Harris or women of color will desert the election. Dems only realistic strategy is go with Harris but allocate most of their resources to battleground Senate races. It will be too onerous to commit significant resources to both the House and Senate. Prosecuting Trump and confining him to NYC is already a huge Dem blunder. But if Trump were to win New York, the magnitude of the blunder will increase exponentially! @TrumpWarRoom: Masked protestors interrupt Laughing Kamala’s event in North Carolina and are escorted out as Kamala claims how strongly she believes in the right to free speech. https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1811468527456399634 Trump: So now fake movie actor George Clooney, who never came close to making a great movie, is getting into the act. He’s turned on Crooked Joe like the rats they both are. What does Clooney know about anything? He uses the Democrat “talking point” that Biden, the WORST President in the history of the United States, has “saved our Democracy.” No, Crooked Joe was the one who WEAPONIZED Law Enforcement against his political Opponent, who created the most devastating INFLATION in the history of our Country, who Embarrassed our Nation in Afghanistan, and whose crazy Open Border Policy has allowed millions of people to illegally pour into our Country, many from prisons and mental institutions. Crooked Joe Biden didn’t save our Democracy, he brought our Democracy to its knees. Clooney should get out of politics and go back to television. Movies never really worked for him!!! Donald Trump Truth Social 10:09 PM EST 07/10/24 GOP Sen. @BasedMikeLee: Judge Netburn transferred a 6’2” male prisoner—convicted of multiple sex offenses against women and children—to a prison for women. It didn’t end well for the female inmates. But it ended well for Judge Netburn. Biden wants to promote her. Please no! @RealAF_Patriot: Hakeem Jeffries (Dem House leader) said that passing a law to prevent illegal aliens from voting actually prevents Americans from voting. Read that again and then make that make sense … Ex-DJT advisor @StephenM: The Democrat Party you grew up with is buried and gone. There is only the Progressive Democrats now. The entire Progressive Democrat Party just voted to let illegal aliens vote in the 2024 election. (Joe Biden is last prominent vestige of the ‘Old Democratic Party.’) @WallStreetApes: Illegal Migrants in Chicago Are Receiving Social Security Cards – CBS News: The process of giving newly arriving illegal immigrants Social Security Cards began all the way back in November. The 2024 Presidential Election will be the most rigged election in history. https://t.co/8FgypHWWFx Daily Mail: Poland is on a mission to build the most powerful land army in Europe https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13620855/As-Putin-bombs-childrens-cancer-hospital-Starmer-talks-defence-reviews-roadmaps-Poland-mission-build-powerful-land-army-Europe.html | |
GREG HUNTER
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