GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $38.60 TO $2462.65
SILVER PRICE UP $0.30 TO $30.92
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2468.60
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.32
Bitcoin morning price:$63,507 DOWN 324 DOLLARS. bankers doing a good job destroying the value of bitcoin
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $65,002 UP 1171
dollars//
Platinum price closing UP 0.35 TO $1000.35
Palladium price; UP $7.45 AT $960.30
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 3 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//august to august
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 16 Jul 2024 09:21:37 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3375.67 UP 61.90 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,375.67 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//JULY 16 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1,902,19 UP 34.36 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,263.98 UP 41.22 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.263.98 EUROS PER OZ//JULY 16//.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: JULY 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,422.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 07/15/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 07/17/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
190 H BMO CAPITAL 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 17
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 495
661 C JP MORGAN 500
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 13 4
TOTAL: 518 518
JPMorgan stopped 0/518
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 518 NOTICES FOR 51800 OZ or 1.611 TONNES
total notices so far: 3623 contracts for 362,300 Oz (11.2690 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 34 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.170 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6000 for 30.00 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $38.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPUR INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.30 AT THE SLV//
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 433.480 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 489 CONTRACTS TO 163,381 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.24 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A HUGE NET GAIN OF 2067 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE STRONG LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE STRONG GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER STRONG SIZED 526 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 526 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.24) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 2067 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.24.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUGE SIZED 1578 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 45,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 30.500 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 526 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 268
CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAYS, total 11,575 contracts: OR 57.875 MILLION OZ (1052 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 57.875 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 57.875 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 489 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1578 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 45,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 30.500 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 2067 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 526 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (526) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 34 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.170 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 14,625 OI CONTRACTS TO 564,993 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 872 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (14,625 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $8.15 IN PRICE/MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 52,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 11.405 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $8.15 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 16,850 OI CONTRACTS (52.41 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2225 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 564,121
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,850 CONTRACTS WITH 14,625 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2225 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,850 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 2495 CONTRACTS,,(5 DAYS IN A ROW OF THESE HUMONGOUS ISSUANCES ENDED YESTERDAY)
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2225 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 14,625 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 17,722 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 52,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 11.405 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2495 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 48,677 CONTRACTS OR 4,867,700 OZ OR 151.406 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4425 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 151.406 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 144.48 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.11% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 151.406 TONNES (WILL BE A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 489 CONTRACTS OI TO 163,381 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1578 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1578 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1578 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 489 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1578 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2067
CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.335 MILLION OZ
OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.24 LOSS IN PRICE …..
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.29 PTS OR 0.08% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 287.96 PTS OR 1.60% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 84.40 OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.23%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2664 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2881/ Oil UP TO 80.89dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.77/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 14,625 CONTRACTS TO 564,121 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.15 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON MONDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2225 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 2225 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2225 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 16,850 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2225 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 14,625 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR RATHER SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $8.15/MONDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 2495 CONTRACTS. (5 DAYS IN A ROW OF THIS TYPE OF MEGA ISSUANCE ENDED ON MONDAY) MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING. TODAY’S ISSUANCE ENDED THE 5 DAYS OF WHOPPER ISSUANCE.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (11.405 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.405 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $8.15 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 17,772 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ACCOMPANYING THE SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 55.13 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 52,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.405 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 11.405 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.15
WE HAVE REMOVED 872 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,850 CONTRACTS OR 1,685,000 OZ (52.41 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 235,000 contracts//fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
JULY 16 JULY GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE JULY 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | nil oz . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil OZ |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 518 notice(s) 51800 OZ 1,6110 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 44 contracts 4400 OZ 0.1368 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 3623 notices 362300 oz 11.2690 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS NIL
Adjustment 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 562 contracts having GAINED 184 contracts. We had 345 notices filed on Monday so we gained a whopping 529 contracts or an additional 52900 oz will stand at the comex (1.644 tonnes). Somebody was in great need of physical gold on this side of the pond today.
AUGUST GAINED 273 CONTRACTS UP TO 266,552 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 88 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 433.
OCTOBER GAINED 2847 CONTRACTS UP TO 37,148 CONTRACTS
We had 518 contracts filed for today representing 51,800 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 500 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 518 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3623) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 562( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (518 x 100 oz per contract( equals 366,700 OZ OR 11.405 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (3623 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (562 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (518) x 100 oz which equals 366,700 oz (11.405 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 11.405 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,679,117.861 oz 52.22 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,699,327.345 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,790,633.975 ( 242.32 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,908,693.320 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,111,516oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.20 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 16/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 603,220.600oz ASAHI DELAWARE CNT . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 596,381.200 oz JPMorgan |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 34 CONTRACT(S) (.170 million OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 100 contracts (0.500 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6000 Contracts (30.000 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i)Into JPMorgan: 594,381.200 oz
total customer deposit 594,381.200 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.374million oz/303.103million or 43.15%
adjustment: 0
customer withdrawals: 3
i) out of CNT 5861.600 oz
ii) out of Ashai: 596,381.200 oz
iii) out of Delaware 977.800 oz
total withdrawal: 603,220.600 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.350 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 303.103
million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 134 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 2 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 9 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 45,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE.
AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 19 CONTRACTS TO 1267
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 391 CONTRACTS TO 130,222
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for 0.170 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 63,892 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6000 x 5,000 oz = 30,000 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( 134) and the number of notices served upon today 34 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 6000 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (134)x number of notices served upon today minus (34)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 30.500 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 30.500 million oz.
There are 69.360 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $18.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 13 WITH GOLD DOWN$35.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH GOLD UP $28.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: /A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.89 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 830.78 TONNES
JUNE 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 10 WITH GOLD UP $2,00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 835.67 TONNES
JUNE 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $64.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 837.11 TONNES
JUNE 6 WITH GOLD UP $16.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.34 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.55 TONNES
JUNE 5 WITH GOLD UP $32.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
JUNE 3 WITH GOLD UP $22.85 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 30 WITH GOLD UP $3.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 29 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: / //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
MAY 28 WITH GOLD UP $22.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// //NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 832.21 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 836,53 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 17. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 14. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 13. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.10//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/ A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.958 MILLION OZ/INVENTORY RISES TO 429.083 TONNES
JUNE 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.97 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 5.983 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 427.125 MILLION OZ
JUNE 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.59 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.644 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 422.786 MILLION OZ
JUNE 10 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 3.198 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY RISES TO ; 421.142 MILLION OZ
JUNE 7 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.93 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY AT 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 6 WITH SILVER UP $1.27 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.649 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 417.944 MILLION OZ
JUNE 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.38 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// INVENTORY INCREASES TO 415.295 MILLION OZ
JUNE 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.08 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
JUNE 3 WITH SILVER UP $0.35 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: //INVENTORY REMAINS AT 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.09 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 3.655 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV//INVENTORY LOWERS TO 413.775 MILLION OZ
MAY 30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.80 TODAY: NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY//INVENTORY REMAINS AT 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 29 WITH SILVER UP $0.20 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 1.051 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY DECREASES TO 417.430 MILLION OZ
MAY 28 WITH SILVER UP $1.64 TODAY: HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.832 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//INVENTORY INCREASES TO 418.481 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 433.480 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Uganda joins growing number of African countries turning to gold
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-07-12 20:11 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho
Friday, July 12, 2024
Uganda has joined the growing number of African countries turning to gold to support their currencies.
The Ugandan central bank has announced a domestic gold-buying program to buy gold directly from local artisanal mine
According to a statement on the Bank of Uganda’s website, “The gold purchase program will help in accumulating foreign currency reserves and address the associated risks in the international financial markets.”
In an interview with the Monitor, Bank of Uganda research director Dr. Adam Mugume said, “We are diversifying international reserves to include monetary gold.” …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
They want gold to be higher than a tier one asset. sounds good to me
(Solitaire/ChrisPowell)
LBMA, World Gold Council urge BIS to list gold as ‘high-quality liquid asset’ under Basel III
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-07-13 13:11 Section: Daily Dispatches
Maybe even the BIS considers gold to be the future of money as well as its past.
* * *
From Solitaire
Gem & Jewellery Export Promotion Council, Mumbai
Thursday, July 11, 2024
Last week delegates from the London Bullion Market Association, including Paul Fisher, Ruth Crowell, David Gornall, and Edel Tully, joined Mike Oswin of the World Gold Council in Basel for a meeting with the Bank for International Settlements.
The delegation met with Neil Esho, secretary-general of the Basel Committee, and Noel Reynolds, head of Basel III implementation, to discuss the future of gold as a high-quality liquid asset.
The reclassification of gold to from its current status as a Tier 1 asset to a high-quality liquid asset would bring about enhanced market stability, improved liquidity, regulatory compliance benefits, greater confidence and trust in the financial system, and overall economic and financial stability. This would be advantageous for both financial institutions and the broader economy.
According to the LBMA, the meeting was productive, and the delegation received reassurances that they were on the right path towards advocating for the reclassification of gold as a HQLA. The discussions centered around the broad criteria for HQLA status and the progress made in the gold market concerning data transparency. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
ASIA TRADING//TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.29 PTS OR 0.08% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 287.96 PTS OR 1.60% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 84.40 OR 0.20%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.23%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2664 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2881/ Oil UP TO 80.89dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 83.77/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2684
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2881
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.29 PTS OR 0.08 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 287.96 PTS OR 1.60%
2. Nikkei closed UP 84.40 PTS OR 0.20%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.92 EURO FALLS TO 1.0897 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1,025 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 158.44 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4240/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.713 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.190%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.379
3j Gold at $2439.70//Silver at: 30.82 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 25/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 88.65
3m oil into the 80 dollar handle for WTI and 83 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 158.44/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.031% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8959 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9761 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.174 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.409 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.426 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.09…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.088 DOWN 7 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise Led By Small Caps As Great Rotation Continues
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 08:16 AM
US equity futures are modestly higher, rebounding from session lows, and led by Russell futures as the rotation looks poised to continue as bond yields are lower with the curve bull flattening. As of 7:45am, S&P futures are 0.1% higher with Nasdaq futures rising 0.2%. Premarket, Mag7 is mixed with TSLA +1.7% the standout with Semis flattish. European stocks were red across the board, as China also traded lower after Trump’s selection of JD Vance – who said China represents the biggest threat to the US – as his VP, triggered further trade and geopolitical concerns in the region. FTSE -20bp/DAX -35bps/CAC -70bps/Shanghai +8bps/Hang Seng -1.6%/Nikkei +20bps/Kospi +18bps. Treasuries rose, pushing yields to their lowest since March, as expectations for a September rate cut rose: 10-year rates fell to as low as 4.17% while 2Y yields was at 4.41%. At the same time, the US Dollar is seeing some support, but the story is the BOJ and potential JPY intervention, though JPY is weaker. Commodities are weaker across all 3 complex with precious metals, natgas, and softs providing some support. Today’s macro data focus is on Retail Sales where the headline number likely is negative based upon lower gasoline prices but the Control Group is likely higher as the consumer spent on everything else.
In premarket trading, Bank of America rose more than 2% after the lender said it sees fourth-quarter net interest income on a fully taxable-equivalent basis of about $14.5 billion, ahead of analyst estimates for $14.33 billion. Morgan Stanley initially rose after reporting Q2 earnings but then slumped after the market focused on the bank’s Wealth Management revenue miss. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Chegg gains 7% as Morgan Stanley raises the stock to equal-weight, with analysts saying that the educational platform provider’s shares are pricing in a “challenged” path ahead.
- Match Group jumps 9% after Starboard Value built a stake in the dating-app company.
- Trump Media falls 9.6% after the owner of Truth Social registered 38 million shares that could be sold as part of a pact with Yorkville Advisors.
- Verizon Communications ticks 0.3% higher as the carrier explores selling thousands of mobile-phone towers across the country, according to people familiar with the matter.
- Palantir dropped -1.7% after it was cut to underperform at Mizuho Securities with a PT $22
Overnight news was quiet outside of headlines from the RNC (JD Vance said Trump would negotiate with Russia & Ukraine so American can focus on the real issue, which is China) and another weak consumer print out of Europe (Hugo Boss). German Zew Survey declined for the first time in a year.
Meanwhile, the great rotation continues: The small-cap Russell index is now +1% for four straight sessions (up ~7.8% in that time window) vs NDX -30bps over same 4 days. Reminder S&P 500 has set 37 record highs this year while RTY remains ~10.5% below ATH from Nov ’21. Traders now await US retail sales data later for fresh insights on whether inflation and growth have cooled enough to satisfy policymakers who are deliberating when it’s safe to begin bringing down interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Monday that inflation is heading toward the central bank’s 2% goal on the basis of second-quarter economic data.
“While he was not saying, ‘right we have high confidence that inflation is under control,’ which would fire the starting gun, it’s enough to support market expectations of a couple of cuts for this year and then for more of the same into next year,” said Sunil Krishnan, head of multi asset funds at Aviva Investors.
As traders start to embrace the idea of three interest-rate cuts this year, starting in September, Treasuries have wiped out their 2024 losses. Strategists at UniCredit SpA have pencilled in that many rate cuts and recommend positioning for the yield curve to steepen. Steepener trades favor buying short dated notes and selling long bonds, and are getting a boost from speculation that fiscal expansion will drive up long-dated yields.
European stocks and US equity futures pared earlier gains as disappointing earnings weighed on risk sentiment. Estoxx 50 trades lower by 0.7% on the day with consumer discretionary and energy sectors underperforming; Miners, insurance and autos were the worst performing sectors in Europe.
- Ocado shares jump as much as 20% after the online grocer reported first-half results that analysts said should provide reassurance following a rough year for the stock. The rally followed a 10% drop on Monday after a double-downgrade from Bernstein.
- SEB shares rise as much as 4.3% to a record high after reporting results that Jefferies said showed “positive trends” and included a bigger-than-expected buyback. Citi said net interest income beat estimates and consensus estimates should rise.
- Fineco shares rose as much as 3.4% in Milan after Italian newspaper Il Sole 24 Ore mentioned it among target companies managing Italians’ savings that could have been studied by investment firms such as Bain, CVC and Advent.
- Richemont shares rise as much as 2.3%, recouping an initial slide, as its first-quarter sales met expectations, contrasting with disappointing results this week from luxury peers Swatch, Burberry and Hugo Boss. The resilience of Richemont’s jewelry division impressed analysts.
- Rio Tinto shares fell as much as 2.8% after the global miner warned that full-year copper output would be at the lower end of its guidance range.
- Salzgitter falls as much as 7.2% while SSAB drops 3.9% after JPMorgan puts both stocks on negative catalyst watch ahead of their upcoming second quarter results.
- DKSH shares rise as much as 9.1% after the company, which helps others with their expansion plans, delivered earnings above expectations in the first half.
- Wise shares rise as much as 5.2% after the UK financial-software developer reported volumes for the first quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Hugo Boss shares slump as much as 11% after the German clothing producer lowered its full-year outlook, citing the impact on demand from “persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges.”
- Scor drops as much as 30%, the most since 2002, after the French insurer issued a profit warning related to its life and health (L&H) insurance service result, while accelerating its annual reserving review.
- Swedbank shares slip as much as 1.9% after the Swedish lender missed expectations on the key net-interest-income (NII) metric, offsetting better-than-expected income from fees and trading, analysts say.
- Trustpilot shares drop as much as 9% after a holder sold shares in the online review platform at a discounted price of 220p.
- Shares in UK utilities fell, led by Severn Trent and United Utilities, after Ofwat’s announcement that it is opening enforcement cases into four more water and wastewater companies.
Earlier in the session, China traded lower as Trump’s selection of JD Vance as his running mate triggered further trade and geopolitical concerns in the region. New tariffs of 60% on all Chinese exports to the US would more than halve China’s annual growth rate, according to UBS Group AG, underscoring the risks for Beijing if Trump returns to the White House. Vance told Fox News that China is the biggest threat to the US.
Asian stocks declined for a third consecutive day, as Hong Kong shares extended losses amid weak economics cues and growing geopolitical worries. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.3%, with Tencent and AIA Group among the biggest drags. Hong Kong-listed stocks slid for a second day after Chinese economic growth data came in below expectations. Prospects for a victory by Donald Trump in the US presidential election are seen having negative implications for Chinese stocks. That comes on top of the already shaky economic outlook amid a continued crisis in the Asian nation’s property market. Sectors to watch:
- Shares of South Korean construction firms including HDC Hyundai Development rise, extending their recent rally on interest rate cut bets, a recovery in Seoul real estate prices and expectations for overseas nuclear deals.
- Chinese robotaxi-linked stocks extend a rally as investors bet on brighter prospects for this sector on continuous policy support.
- Taiyo Yuden, Murata Manufacturing and TDK shares climb after Jefferies raised its price target on Japan’s electronics components makers on view they will benefit from AI-related demand.
- Shares of Apple suppliers advance in Asia as the tech giant surged to another record high after Morgan Stanley named the stock as its top pick.
- Shares of LG Energy Solution and other EV battery-related stocks extend losses in Asia after Donald Trump announced JD Vance as his running mate.
- Chinese environment equipment-related stocks rise as authorities plan to increase financial support for projects to reduce emissions at coal power plants.
In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index was flat, erasing an earlier gain driven by speculation that Donald Trump is virtually assured to win the US presidential election. EUR and DKK were the strongest performers in G-10 FX, AUD and JPY lagged. The yen weakened against the dollar as local markets reopened, following a three-day weekend, with traders focusing on the monetary policy divergence between Japan and the US.
“The Trump trade that sees rising stocks, bond yields and dollar could continue in the short term as Trump’s chances of election win increase,” said Daisaku Ueno, chief foreign-exchange strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities Co. in Tokyo. “I’d expect Japan intervention to take place” when yen weakness accelerates due to Trump trade, he said. Traders added to bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates three times this year after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said conditions were ripe for easing.
In rates, global bonds rallied as traders increased the odds of more cuts from the BOE and Fed by the end of 2024. Treasuries advanced with the curve flatter as Monday’s aggressive steepening move is slightly unwound. Similar gains seen across European rates as traders price in two quarter-point rate Bank of England cuts this year, following UK grocery price inflation data. US session focus includes retail sales data. Treasury yields richer on the day by up to 5bp across long-end of the curve with 2s10s spread flattening by 1bp; 10-year yields around 4.18% with bunds and gilts both lagging by around 1.5bp in the sector. Odds of three 25bps of Fed cuts by December were at 90%, while traders fully priced in the likelihood of two BOE 25bps cuts this year, swaps tied to meeting dates showed.
In commodities, WTI drifted 0.8% lower to near $81.25. Spot gold rose roughly $16 to ~$2,439/oz. Bitcoin fell to around $63,000.
Today’s US economic data slate includes July New York Fed services business index and June retail sales and import/export prices (8:30am), May business inventories and July NAHB housing market index (10am). Fed members scheduled to speak include Kugler at 2:45pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,678.25
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 516.01
- MXAP down 0.3% to 187.02
- MXAPJ down 0.4% to 582.92
- Nikkei up 0.2% to 41,275.08
- Topix up 0.3% to 2,904.50
- Hang Seng Index down 1.6% to 17,727.98
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,976.30
- Sensex little changed at 80,717.27
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,999.32
- Kospi up 0.2% to 2,866.09
- German 10Y yield -3.5bps at 2.44%
- Euro little changed at $1.0900
- Brent Futures down 0.8% to $84.16/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,437.84
- US Dollar Index little changed at 104.28
Top Overnight News
- Fed’s Daly (voter) said confidence is growing that they are getting nearer to a sustainable pace of getting inflation to 2%, while she sees a policy adjustment over the coming term and said some normalisation of policy is a likely outcome. Furthermore, she said the US economy is slowing and inflation is lower but they are not there yet although they are nearer to the time of achieving their goals.
- US President Biden is reportedly on the brink of failing to win a key labour endorsement as leaders of the 1.3mln member Teamsters union consider backing no candidate at all in the presidential race, according to Reuters citing sources. It was later reported that Teamsters union president O’Brien said they are not beholden to any party.
- US Special Counsel spokesperson said the dismissal of the Trump documents case deviates from the uniform conclusion of all previous courts to have considered the issue that the Attorney General is statutorily authorised to appoint a Special Counsel, while the Justice Department authorised the Special Counsel to appeal the court’s order.
- BofA Fund Manager Survey: investors remain bullish, driven by expectations of Fed cuts and a soft landing. Global growth expectations: -27% (prev. -6%), largest drop since March 2022. Soft landing expected by 68%, 18% see no landing. 67% see no recession in the next 12-months. Long ‘Magnificent 7’ the most crowded trade by a ‘country mile’. 39% believe that monetary policy is too restrictive. Geopols has replaced higher inflation as the main tail risk.
- Former President Trump is reportedly ready to hold talks with Russian President Putin on resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict without any intermediary, according to Tass
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said second-quarter economic data has provided policymakers greater confidence that inflation is heading down to the central bank’s 2% goal, possibly paving the way for near-term interest-rate cuts.
- Major Silicon Valley investors hailed Donald Trump’s choice of Ohio senator and former venture capitalist JD Vance as his running mate, a move that puts the technology industry closer to center stage in Washington if the former president takes the White House in November.
- For months, as copper spiked to record levels and then fell back down again, one key question has bubbled up across the metals industry: What is China’s state grid operator up to?
- China’s twin-track economy is generating doom-and-gloom headlines about domestic woes one moment and growing fears around the world about the dominance of its manufacturers the next.
- New tariffs of 60% on all Chinese exports to the US would more than halve China’s annual growth rate, according to new research from UBS Group AG, underscoring the risks for Beijing if former President Donald Trump returns to the White House.
- French President Emmanuel Macron is about to set in motion the appointment of a caretaker government until negotiations to find a new prime minister bear fruit.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed amid a quiet calendar and after the choppy but positive performance stateside following the latest comments from Fed Chair Powell. ASX 200 traded marginally lower with weakness in mining stocks following Rio Tinto’s production update. Nikkei 225 gained on return from the holiday weekend with the upside helped by a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued with underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark after it gapped beneath the psychologically key 18,000 level, while sentiment in the mainland was clouded amid the lingering risks of higher tariffs but with downside stemmed after the PBoC upped its liquidity efforts with a CNY 676bln injection through 7-day reverse repos.
Top Asian News
- BoJ accounts point to intervention of about JPY 2.1tln on July 12th, via Bloomberg.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.4%) are entirely in the red, having opened on the backfoot and continued to extend on losses as the morning progressed. Since then, indices have found support and traverse across worst levels. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Basic Resources is the clear underperformer, dragged down by losses in the underlying metals complex as well as a poor production update from Rio Tinto (-2.2%). US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ U/C, RTY U/C) are flat/mixed, with the ES and NQ trading on either side of the unchanged mark, whilst the RTY outperforms. BlackRock Investment raises UK equities to Overweight from Neutral
Top European News
- ECB Bank Lending Survey Credit standards were broadly unchanged at tight levels in the second quarter of 2024. Banks reported a small net tightening of corporate credit standards and a moderate easing for mortgages. Loan demand continued to decline for firms, while recording the first increase for households since 2022. Credit standards for firms displayed some heterogeneity across economic sectors, tightening strongly in commercial real estate
FX
- Mixed performance for the USD vs. peers, performing best vs. JPY, AUD, NZD. Today’s focus will be on US retail sales, whereby a dovish release could prompt DXY to move onto a 103 handle vs current 104.28.
- EUR is steady vs. the USD after a brief incursion above the 1.09 mark to a 1.0902 high. German ZEW was mixed and failed to move the dial for the Single-currency.
- GBP is steady vs. the USD with 1.30 seemingly currently too tough a nut to crack for Cable. The pair got as high as 1.2995 yesterday before running out of steam.
- USD attempting to claw back some lost ground vs. the JPY after last week’s US CPI, dovish Powell and Japanese intervention sent the pair markedly lower. 158.78 is the high watermark for today’s session but is still a far cry from the July multi-decade high at 161.95
- Antipodeans are both suffering at the hands of the USD with commodity currencies seeing a soft start to the week post-Chinese data over the weekend.
Fixed Income
- USTs are firmer and holding near highs of 111-10+, as Powell’s inflation language serves to weigh on short-term yields, alongside an ongoing pullback in crude; action which is also being seen at the long end of the curve which is currently underperforming and the curve as a whole is flattening.
- Bunds are firmer in-fitting with USTs, eclipsing last week’s 132.08 best to a 132.31 peak which now looks to a cluster between 132.56-80 from the 20th-26th June. The latest ECB Bank Lending Survey passed without reaction while the mixed ZEW pushed Bunds away from best levels.
- Gilts remains focussed on upcoming events which commence with CPI and the King’s Speech on Wednesday. DMO outing was robust and spurred an incremental fresh high of 98.62.
- OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread remains steady at 64bps ahead of today’s political risk event whereby President Macron should accept and allow PM Attal to resign, but it remains to be seen exactly who will be appointed as a caretaker.
- UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.75% 2043 Gilt: b/c 3.29x (prev. 3.67x), average yield 4.519% (prev. 4.580%) & 0.1bps (prev. 0.4bps)
- Germany sells EUR 3.261bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2029 Bobl: b/c 2.0x, average yield 2.39%, retention 18.48%
Commodities
- A subdued session for the crude complex thus far despite the lack of fresh fundamentals, but as the Dollar remains firm and amid the ongoing woes surrounding Chinese demand following several downbeat data releases. Brent September resides near the trough of a USD 84.15-84.86/bbl parameter.
- Mixed trade across the precious metals despite quiet newsflow in the European morning, with spot gold the outperformer amid increased momentum as the yellow metal approaches ATHs. Spot gold probes yesterday’s peak (USD 2,439.59/oz) as it eyes its current ATH at USD 2,449.89/oz.
- Base metals are mostly lower with the complex dampened by the prognosis of the Chinese economy following the recent string of disappointing data, whilst some also flag rising inventory as warehouses.
- Freeport LNG expects to restart the first LNG train this week after damage from Hurricane Beryl and plans to restart the remaining two LNG trains shortly after the first one.
- Bolivia’s President announced the discovery of a 1.7tln cubic feet natural gas reserve in the north of the department of La Paz.
- Some Japaense aluminium purchasers have agreed on a July-September premium of USD 172/T, +16-19% Q/Q, via Reuters citing sources
Geopolitics
- North Korea warned that South Korea will face devastating consequences over anti-North Korea leaflets, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: June Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. -0.3%, prior 0.1%
- June Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
- June Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
- 08:30: June Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.4%
- June Import Price Index YoY, est. 1.0%, prior 1.1%
- June Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.6%
- June Export Price Index YoY, est. 1.0%, prior 0.6%
- 10:00: May Business Inventories, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
- 10:00: July NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 43, prior 43
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
I spent a day at a Theme Park yesterday in the driving rain. The good news was that there was hardly any queues for any of the rides given the weather. The bad news was…… …. there wasn’t any queues for any of the rides.
While I was loop the looping, politics dominated most of the session yesterday with markets trying to price potential Trump presidential trades after the weekend developments with a steeper Treasury curve the key theme in the rates space. Equities saw a clear rotation into stocks that stand to benefit from Trump’s policies and closed (+0.28%) less than a tenth of a percent below last week’s record high, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.80%) surged to a two-and-a-half year high as well.
The other major story of the day was Fed Chair Powell’s interview at the Economic Club of Washington DC. Powell’s initial comments noted that “ the three readings in the second quarter… do add somewhat to confidence” that inflation is returning to the 2% target, and that the inflation and labour market mandates are now “in much better balance”. However, he did not get drawn on the timing of rate cuts and commented that policy is “restrictive but not severely restrictive”. The pricing of Fed cuts for rest of the year rose by +3.7bps on the day to 67bps, the highest since early April, but the move came largely outside of Powell’s comments.
In terms of Treasuries, the 2yr yield was marginally (+0.7bps) higher on the day at 4.46%, having traded as low as 4.42% during Powell’s initial comments. By contrast, the 10yr yield (+4.6bps to 4.23%), and the 30yr yield (+6.1bps to 4.46%) saw sizeable increases. At one point intraday, we even saw the 2s30s yield curve un-invert for the first time since January, although it was just about negative at -0.2bps by the close. Similarly, the 2s10s curve steepened by +4.1bps to -23.0bps, which is the least inverted it’s been since January. This morning in Asia, 10yr UST yields (-1.9bps) have moved back down, trading at 4.21% as we go to print with a similar move at the front end. Next stop an important US retail sales print today.
A Trump-driven shift in market pricing was also apparent for equities. For instance, Trump’s own media company, Trump Media & Technology Group, surged by +31.37%. Another beneficiary were private prison groups, with GEO Group (+9.35%) and CoreCivic (+8.02%) both experiencing their strongest daily performances for over a year. With Trump seen as a more pro-crypto candidate, Bitcoin (+5.57%) moved back up to $63,469, and Coinbase (+11.39%) had its best performance since March. In the meantime, the best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy stocks (+1.56%) followed by financials (+1.42%).
But whilst many assets benefited from the prospect of a Trump presidency, there were also clear points of weakness. For instance, solar energy firms lost ground given the view they’d fare better under a Democratic administration, including decent losses for Sunrun (-8.95%), SolarEdge Technologies (-15.36%) and SunPower (-7.06%). The broader utilities sector (-2.39%) was the main underperformer within the S&P 500. Elsewhere, there was a significant underperformance for Mexican assets, with the Mexican Peso down by -0.96% against the US Dollar, making it one of the worst-performing global currencies yesterday. Moreover, Mexico’s equity index, the S&P/BMV IPC (-1.11%) fell back, with the decline being even larger in USD terms.
In terms of the politics itself, yesterday saw Trump confirm that his running mate on the ticket would be J.D. Vance, the Senator from Ohio. At 39, Vance is the second youngest member of the current Senate and the pick is seen as embracing the Trump campaign’s populist leanings. Vance’s notable policy comments this year have included criticism of the Biden administration on border control and on military aid to Ukraine . We’ll have to wait for some polls to get a better sense of how public opinion has shifted after recent events, but from betting and prediction markets, there’s no doubt that a Trump victory is now viewed as more likely. For instance, the average betting odds from RealClearPolitics now give Trump a 66% chance of victory, up from around 55% on Friday. One thing to bear in mind is that it’s fairly common for the party with a convention to experience a “convention bounce” in the polls as it becomes the focus of media attention. But this time, it could be more difficult to disentangle the effect of the convention if public opinion has also shifted as a result of the assassination attempt.
Over in Europe, markets followed a completely different pattern to the US, with equities sliding alongside a rally in sovereign bonds. That meant the STOXX 600 (-1.02%) posted its worst daily performance in the last month, although the backdrop was already a tough one given the weaker-than-expected Chinese GDP data before the open. Those declines were echoed across the continent, and the CAC 40 (-1.19%) underperformed given the implications for luxury stocks. Meanwhile for bonds, there was a clear risk-off move, which left yields on 10yr bunds (-2.3bps), OATs (-4.0bps) and BTPs (-4.6bps) all lower on the day.
In Asia, China risk continues to be mixed to weaker but the rest of the region is largely higher. The Nikkei (+0.23%) is up as it has resumed trading after a public holiday with the CSI (+0.19%) and the KOSPI (+0.25%) also edging higher. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng (-1.38%) is sharply lower with the Shanghai Composite (-0.21%) also trading down. S&P 500 (+0.19%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.30%) futures are higher.
In FX, the J apanese yen (-0.36%) is extending its losses for the second consecutive day trading at 158.64 against the dollar despite last week’s suspected intervention by Japanese authorities.
There was very little other data yesterday, although Euro Area industrial production was down -0.6% in May (vs. -0.7% expected). Elsewhere, the New York Fed’s Empire State manufacturing survey fell to -6.6 (vs. -7.6 expected).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the German ZEW survey for July, US retail sales for June, the NAHB’s housing market index for July, and Canada’s CPI for June. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Villeroy and the Fed’s Kugler, and also get the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey from the ECB. Finally, earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Bank of America.
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Fed Chair Powell acknowledged more inflation progress – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 01:24 AM
- APAC stocks were mixed amid a quiet calendar and after the choppy but positive performance stateside.
- Fed Chair Powell acknowledged more inflation progress and that recent inflation readings added confidence in inflation falling.
- European equity futures indicate a softer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down by 1.2% on Monday.
- DXY is marginally higher with the USD mainly firmer vs. JPY, AUD and NZD, EUR/USD hovers just below 1.09.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German ZEW, ECB Bank Lending Survey, US Import Prices, Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, Retail Sales, New Zealand CPI, US Republican Convention, Comments from Fed’s Kugler, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Richemont, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth & Charles Schwab.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks finished positive although price action was choppy during the session as markets reflected on the failed Trump assassination attempt which ultimately boosted his election chances and with attention also on comments from Fed Chair Powell who acknowledged more inflation progress and that recent inflation readings added confidence in inflation falling. Nonetheless, he refrained from providing any signals on any particular meeting and said decisions would be made meeting by meeting.
- SPX +0.28% at 5,631, NDX +0.27% at 20,386, DJI +0.53% at 40,211, RUT +1.71% at 2,184.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell said the economy has performed remarkably well over the last couple of years and he expected the economy to slow and inflation to continue to make progress this year, while he noted that something like that is happening. Powell said Q2 inflation does represent progress with three better readings which add confidence in inflation falling and now that inflation has come down, they will look at both mandates. Powell stated if the US were to see an unexpected weakening in the labour market, that would merit a reaction from them but added he is not going to send any signal on any particular meeting and will make decisions meeting by meeting. Furthermore, he said if the Fed waits for inflation to get to 2% to cut, it has waited too long and the test is that officials want to be confident it is moving down, while more good data will add to confidence and the Fed has been getting that lately. Powell also stated that policy is restrictive, though not severely so, and the neutral rate has probably risen.
- Fed’s Daly (voter) said confidence is growing that they are getting nearer to a sustainable pace of getting inflation to 2%, while she sees a policy adjustment over the coming term and said some normalisation of policy is a likely outcome. Furthermore, she said the US economy is slowing and inflation is lower but they are not there yet although they are nearer to the time of achieving their goals.
- WSJ’s Timiraos noted that “Fed Chair Powell passed on an opportunity to change expectations that the central bank will hold rates steady at its next meeting”.
- US President Biden will reportedly unveil a new proposal in Nevada on Tuesday to cap rental costs nationwide, according to WaPo citing sources. Biden’s plan, which would need to be approved by Congress, calls for stripping a tax benefit from landlords who increase their tenants’ rent by more than 5% per year, while the measure would only apply to landlords who own more than 50 units which represent roughly half of all rental properties and wouldn’t cover units that have not yet been built, in an attempt to ensure that the policy does not discourage construction of new rental housing.
- US President Biden said he doesn’t know if the Trump shooting changed the trajectory of the election and that polling does not show a wide gap with Trump, while he added it is a toss-up and he will debate Trump in September.
- US President Biden is reportedly on the brink of failing to win a key labour endorsement as leaders of the 1.3mln member Teamsters union consider backing no candidate at all in the presidential race, according to Reuters citing sources. It was later reported that Teamsters union president O’Brien said they are not beholden to any party.
- US presidential candidate Trump picked JD Vance as his running mate, while President Biden later commented that J.D. Vance is a clone of Trump on the issues.
- US Special Counsel spokesperson said the dismissal of the Trump documents case deviates from the uniform conclusion of all previous courts to have considered the issue that the Attorney General is statutorily authorised to appoint a Special Counsel, while the Justice Department authorised the Special Counsel to appeal the court’s order.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mixed amid a quiet calendar and after the choppy but positive performance stateside following the latest comments from Fed Chair Powell.
- ASX 200 traded marginally lower with weakness in mining stocks following Rio Tinto’s production update.
- Nikkei 225 gained on return from the holiday weekend with the upside helped by a weaker currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued with underperformance in the Hong Kong benchmark after it gapped beneath the psychologically key 18,000 level, while sentiment in the mainland was clouded amid the lingering risks of higher tariffs but with downside stemmed after the PBoC upped its liquidity efforts with a CNY 676bln injection through 7-day reverse repos.
- US equity futures held onto recent gains after both the S&P 500 and Dow printed fresh record highs on Monday.
- European equity futures indicate a softer open with Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed down by 1.2% on Monday.
FX
- DXY was marginally positive but with gains limited after the two-way price action seen during the US session where it briefly slipped to the 104.00 level after comments from Fed Chair Powell who noted progress on inflation before bouncing back as he refrained from providing a signal on any meeting and stated that more good data will add to the confidence.
- EUR/USD lacked direction after having recently failed to sustain a brief incursion above the 1.0900 level.
- GBP/USD traded sideways following yesterday’s pullback from resistance around the 1.3000 status.
- USD/JPY edged higher after reversing a brief dip towards 157.00 which coincided with Powell’s comments.
- Antipodeans were mildly pressured amid the lacklustre risk appetite in Asia and a slightly softer yuan.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1328 vs exp. 7.2671 (prev. 7.1313).
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures traded rangebound around the 111.00 level after recent curve steepening amid boosted prospects of a Trump re-election and after Fed Chair Powell noted recent data added to Fed confidence that inflation is returning to the target.
- Bund futures were contained by resistance at the 132.00 level ahead of ZEW data and a Bobl auction.
- 10-year JGB futures were boosted on return from the extended weekend to resume this month’s upward momentum, while the b/c at the enhanced liquidity auction for long-end JGBs was relatively in line with the previous.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures remained lacklustre after yesterday’s choppy mood owing to recent weak Chinese data and with Gaza talks halted.
- Freeport LNG expects to restart the first LNG train this week after damage from Hurricane Beryl and plans to restart the remaining two LNG trains shortly after the first one.
- Bolivia’s President announced the discovery of a 1.7tln cubic feet natural gas reserve in the north of the department of La Paz.
- Spot gold kept afloat but with upside capped amid mild gains in the dollar and light overnight catalysts.
- Copper futures languished at the prior day’s lows with prices not helped by the cautious mood in Asia.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin traded indecisively throughout the session and is ultimately flat beneath the USD 65,000 level.
- SEC asked Spot ETH ETF issuers to return final S-1s on Wednesday for a Tuesday 23rd July launch, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US chipmaking equipment manufacturers have become more dependent on the Chinese market despite Washington’s export restrictions on advanced products as they boost shipments of machinery used to make legacy chips, according to Nikkei.
- Presidential candidate Trump’s running mate J.D. Vance said China is a bigger issue for the US than the Russia-Ukraine war.
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Three civilians were reportedly killed and three were wounded in an Israeli strike on a building in Lebanon’s Bint Jbeil, according to Reuters citing sources.
- Israeli security cabinet will convene on Tuesday and discuss the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, according to Axios/Walla’s Ravid.
- US State Department said they believe the remaining issues between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire deal are issues that can be solved.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they carried out three military operations in which they targeted the “Bentley I” ship in the Red Sea with ballistic missiles and drones, while it targeted the oil tanker “Chios Lion” in the Red Sea with a booby-trapped boat and along with the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, targeted the Olivia vessel in the Mediterranean Sea.
OTHER
- North Korea warned that South Korea will face devastating consequences over anti-North Korea leaflets, according to KCNA.
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2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/USA
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Hamas Says Top Commander Alive & Well After Israel Reported His Likely Death
MONDAY, JUL 15, 2024 – 06:25 PM
On Monday Hamas announced that its top military commander, the chief of the Qassem Brigades Mohammed Deif, is safe and escaped a massive Israeli strike targeting him Saturday.
The IDF military attack hit a camp for the internally displaced, killing at least 90 people and wounding hundreds more. Gaza authorities say that civilians were wiped out in what should have been a safe zone, but Israel has claimed it was mostly militants killed. The Associated Press is reporting, “Hamas said Sunday that Gaza cease-fire talks continue and the group’s military commander is in good health.”
Israeli leadership and media for nearly 24 hours speculated that Deif could be dead, but uncertainty has loomed. Israel has said, however, that Rafa Salama – a close associate to Deif – was killed in the operation.
US ambassador to Israel Jack Lew said Monday he believed there are indications Deif has been eliminated. “There are still many questions regarding the results of the attack against Mohammed Deif,” he said in a press briefing. “I can’t confirm whether it was successful or not, but there are indications that they have achieved it.”
Following the major aerial assault, there were reports Sunday that Hamas has pulled out of Qatar-mediated ceasefire talks, but the reports proved premature and Hamas has since announce it did not pull out.
Meanwhile, airstrikes have been reported Monday across all areas of Gaza, leading to an uptick in casualties. Al Jazeera has some of the latest updates as follows:
- The Gaza heaquarters of the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA, in Gaza City has been “flattened and turned into a battlefield”, says chief Philippe Lazzarini, as Israel’s latest ground campaign in the city continues to rage.
- Children among the 80 Palestinians killed over the past day as fighter jets, heavy artillery, and helicopter gunships attack Gaza from the north to south.
- Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant praises the pilots who carried out deadly air strikes on the al-Mawasi displacement camp that killed 90 people, saying Hamas is being eroded every day with no ability to arm itself, organise, or “care for the wounded”.
- Officials in Gaza say Israeli missiles killed 17 Palestinians and injured 80 sheltering at a United Nations school for displaced people in Nuseirat refugee camp.
But the Israeli side could be taking more losses than what has been made public. On Monday the Israeli military in a briefing warned that it is low on tanks and ammunition.
“During the course of the war, many tanks were damaged, which are disabled at this stage and are not used for combat or training, and it is not expected that new tanks will be introduced into the corps in the near future,” the Israeli military said in a statement. It noted that resources are “very limited” due to the constraints of the war.
ISRAEL /HOUTHIS
ISRAEL/HAMAS
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
end
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Prominent Syrian Businessman Assassinated By Israeli Drone Strike
MONDAY, JUL 15, 2024 – 10:35 PM
A prominent Syrian businessman who has long been close to the government of Bashar al-Assad has been killed by an Israeli drone near the border with Lebanon on Monday, Lebanese media and the Associated Press report.
The man, Baraa Katerji, was traveling in his car near the Syrian-Lebanese border Monday evening when it was struck by a missile, instantly killing him and his bodyguard.
He was likely targeted due to his being under US-led sanctions and a facilitator of so-called ‘illicit’ shipments of Iranian oil into Syria. Katerji oversaw a business empire based on oil, transport, logistics, and construction.
The AP details based on regional sources that—
An official from an Iran-backed group said that Katerji was killed instantly while in his SUV on the highway linking Lebanon with Syria. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he wasn’t authorized to speak to the media.
The pro-government Al-Watan daily quoted unnamed “sources” as saying that Katerji, 48, was killed in a “Zionist drone strike on his car.” It gave no further details.
Both the US and Israel have long sought to thwart Iranian oil and energy imports. For years the Syrian population has been hit hard by the sanctions, and is almost totally dependent on energy links to Tehran.
Prior to the war, the Syrian population’s fuel and energy needs could be sustained by oil and gas fields in northeast Syria, but the US has occupied these going back years at this point. This has resulted in rolling blackouts and lengthy queues at gas stations. The economy has been smashed and led to unprecedented poverty and hunger.
Israel has been attacking what it calls ‘Iranian assets’ in Syria on almost a weekly basis, with the last strike on Damascus being Sunday, resulting in a Syrian soldier killed and three others injured.
Lebanese media report an alleged Israeli airstrike on a car near the Syrian town of as-Saboura, close to the border with Lebanon.
·
73.3K Views
A source told state-run SANA, “The Israeli enemy carried out an aerial aggression from the direction of occupied Syrian Golan, while our Syrian Arab Army’s air defense systems intercepted the missiles launched by the Israeli enemy and downed some of them.”
Washington and Tel Aviv have remained committed to ensuring Syria can never be rebuilt, and that the economy and infrastructure stay in ruins…
Wow! Israel assassinated the Syrian businessman Baraa Katirji on his way to Lebanon. Katirji is from Aleppo and he has big businesses & investments in Syria.
·
19.6K Views
While such strikes have become common, much more rare is a drone strike of a lone businessman. It remains a mystery as to exactly why Israeli intelligence would target Katerji, however, enemies of Damascus have long seen him as a powerful figure within the ‘elite’ Assad inner-circle.
TALIBAN/AFGHANISTAN/USA
Taliban Takes Americans Hostage, Says Willing To Trade For Gitmo Prisoners
MONDAY, JUL 15, 2024 – 07:15 PM
For the first time in years, the Taliban says it has arrested and imprisoned American citizens, and is hoping to use them in a prisoner swap. The Taliban says that at least two US citizens are being held after violating Afghan laws, while the Washington Examiner has said three are in custody.
The detained individuals have been identified as George Glezmann, Mahmood Habibi, and Ryan Corbett – as confirmed also by a State Department statement. A Taliban government spokesperson announced that the “American nationals violated the country’s law, and discussion has been held with the US officials in this regard.”
And Taliban chief spokesman Zabiullah Mujahid recently told reporters in Kabul that “the topic of a prisoner release was discussed during his recent meeting with US officials in Doha, continuing a recurring theme in their negotiations.”
“Afghanistan’s conditions must be met. We have our citizens who are imprisoned in the US and Guantanamo,” Mujahid stated. “We should free our prisoners in exchange for them. Just as their prisoners are important to America, Afghans are equally important to us,” he added.
It as yet unclear what precise charges the men are being held on, but Afghan national media has alluded to the possibility of “espionage” – which would be a very serious accusation, possibly resulting in a capital case.
Both Glezmann and Corbett were initially detained in 2022, with the former having previously described he was on a tour of the country’s unique cultural landscape and history. US officials have complained that the American nationals are being held without charge or due process. Less is known about the third person who might be in custody, Muhammed Habibi, who is a US-Afghan dual citizen.
The Taliban has exercised complete control over the war-torn, central Asian country since the US coalition pullout of August 2021, which by all accounts was chaotic and resulted in both US military and Afghan civilian deaths.
The US State Department has since then designated Afghanistan as a “Level 4: Do Not Travel” country for American citizens.
An official alert says the risk of detention for foreign travelers is high. “Multiple terrorist groups are active in country and U.S. citizens are targets of kidnapping and wrongful detentions. The Department has assessed that there is a risk of wrongful detention of U.S. citizens by the Taliban,” the US State Dept. says.
According to sources, Taliban’s Minister of Interior, Sirajuddin Haqqani, is set to meet US security officials during his visit to the #UAE. #Taliban are currently holding several Americans in their prisons, among them Ryan Corbett & George Glezmann. Paul Overby also disappeared on his way to interview Sirajuddin Haqqani himself.
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466 Views
.com/HostageAid/status/1798759982802063501
“The Taliban have harassed and detained aid and humanitarian workers. The activities of foreigners may be viewed with suspicion, and reasons for detention may be unclear. Even if you are registered with the appropriate authorities to conduct business, the risk of detention is high,” the notification says.
END
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
END
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Footage of the destruction of an Ukrainian Armed Forces tank with the help of a Lancet, which flew into the hangar through a hole in the roof, is shown.
Inbox
Robert H
“Rather fascinating, because Lancet drones now are ability to use fuzzy logic to determine how to best destroy a target. Normally a drone of this nature would not strike through a hole in the roof as precise calculation is needed to enter such a hole and strike the target within a warehouse. All this was done before the drone struck.
This is a game changing advance.”
Search for all messages with label Inbox
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Babies having heart attacks in utero? In the womb? The unthinkable is happening & Dr. James Thorp OBGYN with 43 years of experience, explains devastating consequences of Bourla Malone COVID mRNA shot
LIONESS OF JUDAH MINISTRY’s excellent scholarship highlighting Thorp’s clarion calls to protect the mother and baby in utero! 1200 times increase in menstrual abnormalities; increase in miscarriages,
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERJUL 15 |
birth defects, fetal cardiac arrhythmia, fetal cardiac malformations, fetal growth slowing, reduction in amniotic fluid, and fetal cardiac arrest.”
What say you Malone? Bourla? Bancel? Sahin? You criminals…you Nobel criminals, money whore criminals! What about you Weissman? Kariko? All of you animals…I have nothing but sheer disdain for you all, each of you for it was untested, mRNA, in LNP complex, in vaccine, you never proved out safety, never and you know to this day, not one RCT has shown this mRNA vaccine reduces death, ICU, hospitalization etc. Just bull shit speculation by you people yet you brought death…to babies, children…you all are just money fame whores! You all have blood and death on your hands and now you pushing mRNA vaccine for fraud PCR manufactured fake H5N1, H5N2 pandemic? There never will be a bird flu pandemic, you know you al are fraudsters.
‘Unconscionable Evil: Babies Are Having HEART ATTACKS in the Womb (substack.com)
Alexander MAGA COVID News; a PCR manufactured COVID pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Dr. James Thorp, OBGYN with 43 years of experience, explains the devastating consequences of COVID vaccination
“I don’t know if there is any other physician in the country that sees as many patients as I do by ultrasound, so I know what’s going on. I’ve seen death and destruction like I’ve never seen before.
There is a 1200x increase in menstrual abnormalities.
When we look at pregnancy, there is a substantial and significant increase in miscarriages, birth defects, fetal cardiac arrhythmia, fetal cardiac malformations, fetal growth slowing, reduction in amniotic fluid, and fetal cardiac arrest.”
“Are you saying that babies are having heart attacks in the womb?”
“Yes. The vaccine is causing a significant inflammatory effect.”
’
end
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Rancher Blows Whistle: Food Supply Spiked with mRNA VaccinesA Texas rancher has come forward to blow the whistle and expose efforts by the federal government to spike the U.S. food supply with mRNA vaccines.READ MORE |
| Ex-CDC Chief: FDA Underreported Deadly Covid Shot Side Effects to Combat Vaccine HesitancyFormer U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Dr. Robert Redfield has just exposed a major cover-up of the risks linked to Covid mRNA shots.READ MORE |
| Democrat Megadonor’s Top Advisor Urged Media to Push Narrative That Trump Assassination Attempt Was ‘Staged’A top advisor to Democrat megadonor Reid Hoffman reached out to corporate media outlets and urged them to spread the false narrative that President Donald Trump’s failed assassination attempt was “staged.”READ MORE |
| Trump’s Classified Docs Case Dismissed, Judge Rules Jack Smith’s Appointment Violated ConstitutionJudge Aileen Cannon has just dramatically dismissed the Democrats’ classified documents case against President Donald Trump in Florida, ruling that Special Counsel Jack Smith’s appointment violated the U.S. Constitution.READ MORE |
| Secret Service Diverted Resources to Jill Biden on Saturday, Assigned Temps to TrumpNew evidence is beginning to emerge that paints a clearer picture of the failures in security that allowed President Donald Trump to be shot by an assassin during his Saturday rally in Pennsylvania.READ MORE |
| Trump’s Lawyers File Motion to Vacate New York ‘Hush Money’ VerdictIn the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling on presidential immunity, President Donald Trump’s lawyers are moving full speed toward helping exonerate their client. READ MORE |
| Jack Smith Demands Judge Cannon Disregard Justice Clarence Thomas’ Immunity ConcurrenceSpecial Counsel Jack Smith has demanded that the judge overseeing his classified documents case against President Donald Trump should disregard the concurrence of Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas regarding the matter.READ MORE |
| Peter Navarro to Address RNC Immediately after Prison ReleaseThis week’s 2024 Republican National Convention is certain to be packed with intense anticipation and inspirational moments, particularly following the assassination attempt of President Donald Trump over the weekend.READ MORE |
| Don Trump Jr Says Father in ‘Great Spirits’ Following Assassination AttemptThe assassination attempt on President Donald Trump’s life rocked the entire world over the weekend.READ MORE |
The latest reports from Slay News
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Trump Shooter Was Hired by BlackRockSmoking gun evidence has emerged that President Donald Trump’s failed assassin was hired by WEF leader Larry Fink’s globalist multinational investment company BlackRock.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| 2700 Doctors & Scientists Demand Covid Shot Ban amid Soaring DeathsThousands of doctors, scientists, academics, and health care professionals have signed an accord demanding the “immediate” ban of Covid mRNA shots amid a global epidemic of soaring sudden deaths among the vaccinated.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Comedian Kathy Griffin Uses Trump Documents Case Dismissal to Insult Founding FathersSelf-awareness was notably lacking on Monday as liberal Hollywood celebrities reacted strongly to a federal court’s decision to dismiss the “documents” case against former President Donald Trump.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Federal Appeals Court Upholds Tennessee’s Birth Certificate Sex Change BanA federal appeals court has upheld Tennessee’s policy that prohibits individuals from changing the sex designation on their birth certificates.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Top Adviser to Anti-Trump Billionaire Reid Hoffman Claims Assassination Attempt on President Trump Was ‘Staged’On Saturday, after an assassination attempt on President Donald Trump at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, Dmitri Mehlhorn, the chief political advisor to billionaire LinkedIn co-founder and rabid anti-Trump advocate Reid Hoffman, sent a disturbing email to journalists.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump Selects JD Vance for Vice President Running MateIn a highly anticipated announcement, former President Donald J. Trump has chosen Ohio Senator J.D. Vance to be his vice presidential running mate for the 2024 election.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
From Hillbilly Elegy To Silly Billy Eulogy
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 12:05 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
There is a lot going on right now but take a step back and try to see the bigger picture.
In the US, Trump –iconically– survived a “mostly peaceful attempted assassination” (as the first, wildly mild headlines implied it); his Florida documents court case was dropped over the unconstitutionality of Special Counsel Smith, and the latter’s appeal won’t impact the November election; and, as the Republican convention gets underway with the head of the Teamsters union speaking(!), JD ‘Hillbilly Elegy’ Vance is Trump’s Vice-Presidential candidate, ensuring a MAGA policy tone if he wins. Vance is the first VP candidate with a beard since 1892, the last time a president –Cleveland– won re-election after losing his first attempt, and that two incumbent presidents failed to win re-election back-to-back. Indeed, House Democrats reportedly admit, off record, that they are now resigned to a second Trump presidency; the question may soon be if it’s a Red sweep of Congress and the presidency – though we’ve seen that outcome fail to appear before, of course. Markets are already pricing for a ‘Trump Trade’ but aren’t yet grasping its full logical permutations. Nor that the White House’s new electoral strategy also appears to be populism: President Biden wants to cap rent increases at 5%. (And this is to be imposed how?)
In Europe, France is prepping for the Olympics and les grandes vacances with no sign of a new government: a split in the leftist NFP alliance, with the Far Left LFI unhappy not all sing its tune, is matched by a split in Macron’s centrists over whether they should potentially work with the Socialists or the Republicans to try to get a workable majority. Elsewhere, Brussels will work in parallel to the current EU Presidency of Hungary’s Orban, and the EU is also waiting for the re-election of EU Commission President von der Leyen on Thursday, which appears on a knife-edge. A speech she is to give that day is seen as crucial to swinging support, as is her meeting today with Italian PM Meloni, who may or may not back her. As such, the critical (and controversial) report VdL asked former Italian PM and ECB President Draghi to prepare on exactly how Europe can achieve strategic autonomy has to wait. Having looked at the subject ourselves, we understand it is going to have to sacrifice a lot of sacred policy cows to produce any real beef.
In China, the CCP’s Third Plenum is underway which, following weaker than seen Q2 GDP, and June data which underlined yet again that consumer demand is lagging far behind industrial production. While previous Third Plenums have unveiled huge structural changes, and the market hopes this one will see huge fiscal stimulus to boost domestic demand to better match domestic supply, this appears wide of the mark. The Marxist-based ideological message from Beijing so far has been clear: production, production, and production. Not consumption, consumption, and consumption. Hence, it’s all China exports, exports, and exports, not imports, imports, and imports. Which guarantees world protectionism, protectionism, and protectionism, as we will now see even more of in both the US and the EU, Latin America, India, Indonesia, Turkey, etc. The larger question that markets again aren’t asking is what China does then: and it’s a short short-list of options, most of which neither Beijing nor markets will like much at all.
The bigger picture here is not ‘geopolitics’, or ‘populism’, or that ‘economic reforms’ are needed. It is to see that the global economy isn’t working as currently constituted. As I argued in 2020, politics now needs a new ideological “-ism” to tell it what it can (and can’t) do to change things now the ‘Washington Consensus’ is crumbling. But what comes next, exactly?
Making one case, ‘China’s subsidies create, not destroy, value’ argues, “Nearly 250 years after the publication of Adam Smith’s ‘The Wealth of Nations’ and the West has lost the economic plot.” The argument is that China’s much-discussed state subsidies to its EV and solar industries produce massive increases in value creation, massive goods deflation for consumers, and massive geostrategic benefits (for China), at low cost, without accruing most benefits to a few large shareholders.
“To be unable to comprehend this crucial point is to never have properly understood Adam Smith. ‘The Wealth of Nations’ was never about the pursuit of profits,” as the article notes, echoing ‘Adam Smith in Beijing’. “It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer, or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest.” What we want from the butcher, the brewer, and the baker are beef, beer, and bread, not for them to be fabulously wealthy shop owners. What China wants from BYD and Jinko Solar (and the US from Tesla and First Solar) should be affordable EVs and solar panels, not trillion-dollar market-cap stocks. In fact, mega-cap valuations indicate that something has gone seriously awry. Do we really want tech billionaires, or do we really want tech?”
You know who this sounds like? JD Vance. Joe Biden and Janet Yellen. And, probably, Mario Draghi.
Yet, as I have argued since 2015, if everyone agrees this is the way forward, which it clearly is, then either we divide value chains globally via some kind of new Bretton Woods, which is not happening, or we enter into zero-sum competition that means rising protectionism and rival industrial policies; and that can end up in some very good, and some very bad, places. Think Potsdam/Yalta, at least. Think why we had Potsdam and Yalta at worst.
For Europe, it will have to mean if not tearing out, then folding down key pages in the rule books on fiscal, trade, industrial, labour, and monetary policy. Moreover, it implies massive rearmament, at speed. Some get this; many don’t – yet.
For the US, under a hypothetical Trump 2 presidency, it clearly means a neo-Hamiltonian policy of much higher tariffs and, perhaps in tandem, much looser liquidity conditions at home via leaning on the Fed. (The fact that I have not mentioned Powell’s speech yesterday until now is deliberate.)
It seems very unlikely that we would get anything as radical as Project 2025’s US return to the gold standard(!), but some already might see the above as dollar negative. Indeed, today I got the first tweet stating, “JD VANCE OPEN TO DEVALUING DOLLAR TO INCREASE EXPORTS”. However, it’s not that simple, especially as VPs don’t make policy.
Again, as noted here repeatedly, lower rates alone don’t direct capital towards value creation over billionaire creation: that needs regulation, suasion, or capital controls. Expect some! Moreover, lower US rates at home do not have to mean lower US rates abroad. US tariffs stops inflows of goods (for example, Asian and European firms may have to build factories and transfer tech to the US and produce there, as was the case with China until now). That means a halt in the outflow of trade-earned dollars to the global Eurodollar system; and that means a massive liquidity squeeze on the greenback abroad, even as the dollar is cheap(er) at home – you can almost see the fist pumping “USA! USA! USA!” The impact on commodity markets could also be ‘yuuge’.
Markets might get the dollar side of this argument to some extent, but I’m not sure they get all of what comes with it. After all, as the Asia Times article above also notes, “The business press has fallen into an at best lazy understanding of value creation. At worst, neoliberal befuddlement has damaged the brains of policymakers, rendering them incapable of diagnosing economic ills.“
Indeed. But perhaps 2024 marks a Hillbilly revival and a Silly Billy Elegy. Then again, if we mishandle what happens next geopolitically and geoeconomically, which will be hard to avoid, then we might yet all look back at today as a Silly Billy Eulogy.
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0897 DOWN .0001
USA/ YEN 158.44 UP 0.294 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2966 DOWN 0.0003
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3686 UP .0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.29 PTS OR 0.08%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 287.96 PTS OR 1.60%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.23%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 287.96 PTS OR 1.60 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.29 PTS OR 0.08%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .23%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 84.40 PTS OR 0.20%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2439.50
silver:$30.86
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.923 DOWN 10 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 3.019% DOWN 4 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.025% DOWN 2 AND 6/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.201 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.718 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4370 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0879 DOWN 0.0019 OR 19 basis points
USA/Japan: 158.67 UP 0.524 OR YEN IS DOWN 52 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.116 DOWN 1 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0011 OR 11 BASIS pts to 1.3689
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2685 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2912)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.09 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.025…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.201% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.416 DOWN 4 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.4064 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2447,50
SILVER AT 11;30: 30.93
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 18.06 PTS OR 0.22%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 72.86 PTS OR 0.39%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 52.68 PTS OR 0.69 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 52,80 OR 0.47%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 6.77 PTS OR 0.02% PTS
WTI Oil price 80.57 12EST/
Brent Oil: 83.74 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.62 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 28/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4370 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.115 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0897 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2968 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.0875 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.026
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 158.401 UP .252 YEN DOWN 25 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3677 DOWN 0001 //CDN dollar UP 1 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 80.86
Brent OIL: 83.69
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS pts to 4.166
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 4.377%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1 PTS AT 4.443
USA dollar index: 103.92 UP 8 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.06 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.40 DOWN 0 AND 5/100 roubles
GOLD 2,463.80 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.26 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 742.82 PTS OR 1.85%
NASDAQ UP 11.75 PTS OR 0.058 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.23 UP 0.11 PTS OR 0.84%
GLD: $228.29 UP 4.46 OR 1.99%
SLV/ $28.61 UP 0.58 OR 2.07%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Gold Soars To Record High As Stocks Do Something Not Seen Since Oct 1987
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM
There continues to be a very clear factor footprint across the market, with rotational pressures driving Small over Big / Low Momentum over High Momentum / Growth into Cyclicals / Popular shorts over Longs.
On the day, Small Caps literally exploded higher (+3.5%) with Nasdaq unchanged…
Today also saw a continuation of yesterday’s “Trump Trade” with Bitcoin (+370bps) and Infrastructure (+240bps) leading the market higher.
Since ‘soft’ CPI struck last week, the Russell 2000 has exploded over 10% higher… and the Nasdaq 100 has slumped…
Yes, The Dow has followed Small Caps higher (mostly due to Energy and Financials), but a glimpse at the S&P 500’s lackluster performance destroys the hope-filled narrative that this is just a “healthy rebalance into a broadening rally.” With the concentration and positioning in mega-cap tech so high, the majors will suffer no matter what and passively drag the ‘broader’ names down too.
Source: Bloomberg
For more clarification, this is just a massive short-squeeze on all the ‘short alpha’ that has been laid as mega-cap tech took over the world. ‘Most Shorted’ stocks are up for 10 straight days… (April 2015 was the last time we saw 11 straight days of gains for this basket). This is one of the biggest periodic squeezes in the last four years…
Source: Bloomberg
For context, this four-day reversal is the great shift in the Small-Cap/Big-Tech pair since the collapse of the DotCom bubble…
Source: Bloomberg
For more excitement, this is the largest five-day outperformance of Small Caps over the S&P 500 since Oct 1987…
Source: Bloomberg
As a reminder, before the 2000 bubble burst, the three “dullest” S&P 500 sectors (Consumer Staples, Healthcare and Utilities) had performed badly in the months leading up to the tech peak in late March that year. But as tech rolled over, these sectors turned round and rallied +25-35% in the final 9 months of the year when the overall market struggled and tech slumped.
Goldman’s trading desk noted that volumes elevated vs the trailing 20days and ETFs capturing 28% of the broader tape.
- We are slightly better to buy with LOs leading the way skewed +6% better to buy though on small notional. Demand is concentrated in Fins and Hcare, vs supply in Tech + Discretionary names.
- HFs better buyers of tech and cons discretionary, but overall skewed slightly better for sale led by supply in Hcare and fins.
Mag7 stocks ended lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were down across the curve today, despite spiking on the stronger than expected Retail Sales print briefly. The long-end outperformed (2Y -3bps, 30Y -8bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar continues to drift nowhere fast , unable to bounce notably off the CPI slump lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices continue to leak lower with WTI back to $80 handle, hovering near one-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
On a side-note, oil volatility has dropped to its lowest level since 2018 as a low conviction in large price changes has reduced interest from speculative investors while systematic investors have sold volatility…
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos continue to see ETF inflows dominating any govt supply overhangs…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin Rallied back up to $65,000…
Source: Bloomberg
Ether also rallied, hitting $3500 on reports that ETH ETF approval is imminent…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold surged higher again, breaking out to new all-time record highs today…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, it does make us wonder, just what kind of crisis Gold is seeing that means a massive swing to negative real rates…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks are hoping for re-liquification too…
Source: Bloomberg
Thata $12 trillion ‘gap’ in central bank liquidity priced into stocks – what would that kind of liquidity jolt do to gold and crypto
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Headline spending plunges. The numbers were saved by seasonals
(zerohedge)
Saved By The Seasonals: Headline Spending Surprises As ‘Real’ Retail Sales Plunge
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 08:43 AM
BofA’s omnipotent analysts track record on retail sales looks to be tested once again with a worse than consensus forecast (for an already downbeat expected print) in June…
BUT… for once they were wrong with retail sales far better than expected – though notably the headline print was unchanged Mom (-0.3% exp). but May was also revised higher from +0.,1% to +0.3% MoM. The YoY retail sales growth slowed to just 2.3% – the slowest since February…
Source: Bloomberg
For context, May 2024’s upward revision was the largest since May 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Core (Ex-Autos) retail sales soared 0.4% MoM (well above the 0.0% exp) and May was also revised higher.
The Control Group – used in the calculation of GDP – exploded 0.9% MoM higher – smashing the +0.2% expectations()
Non-store retailers (online) were the biggest driver of the gains in June while motor vehicles and parts dealers saw sales plunge…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, retail sales were +0.2% YoY with Motor Vehicle Sales the largest contributor to the downside….
Source: Bloomberg
Finally on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, real retail sales (roughly ‘adjusted’ for CPI) tumbled YoY in June…
Source: Bloomberg
As seasonals saved the day…
Source: Bloomberg
…aaah, Bidenomics!
END
Problems in the homebuilding industry
More builders slash home prices as confidence in the market falls to seven-month low
July 16, 2024 at 10:00 a.m. ET
Market Watch
Nearly a third of builders cut home prices to boost sales in July, industry group says
The numbers: Builder confidence fell for the third month in a row in July as elevated mortgage rates dampen home- buying activity.
Sentiment among builders is at the lowest level since December 2023.
Pessimism over the direction of sales of new homes pushed the National Association of Home Builders’ monthly confidence index down to 42 points in July, the industry group said on Tuesday.
The July figure fell short of economists’ expectations on Wall Street.
A year ago, the index stood at 56.
Key details: Builders continue to ramp up incentives and cut prices to keep buyers interested as mortgage rates stay near 7%.
Thirty-one percent of builders cut prices in July, the NAHB said, up from 29% in June. The average price cut was 6%.
Sixty-one percent of builders were using sales incentives other than price cuts to improve sales in July.
The three gauges that underpin the overall builder- confidence index were mixed:
Builders were gloomy about current sales conditions. That gauge fell by 1 point.
Builders expect a drop in traffic from prospective buyers. That gauge fell by 1 point.
But they were relatively upbeat about future sales. That gauge rose by 1 point.
Big picture: The homebuilding industry is feeling the toll of higher interest rates, and builders are cutting prices and offering incentives to keep buyers interested.
Buyers are not as keen to buy newly built homes as they were a year ago, due to elevated interest rates and the prospect of rates falling in the next few months, according to builders. Higher borrowing costs are also weighing on builders’ plans for new construction.
Home buyers as well as builders are expecting mortgage rates to fall in the coming months. As economic data show weakness in the U.S. economy, the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates soon.
What the NAHB said: “While buyers appear to be waiting for lower interest rates, the six-month sales expectation for builders moved higher, indicating that builders expect mortgage rates to edge lower later this year as inflation data are showing signs of easing,” Carl Harris, a Wichita, Kan.-based custom home builder and chair of the NAHB, said in a statement.
And a persistent shortage of homes continues to be a tailwind for builders. “While home inventory is increasing, total market inventory remains lean at a 4.4 months’ supply, indicating a long-run need for more home construction,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist at the NAHB.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Elon Musk Pledges $45 Million Monthly To Pro-Trump Super PAC To Counter Dems In Swing States
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 07:45 AM
As reported by the Wall Street Journal, a source familiar with the situation has revealed Elon Musk’s latest power move: a $45 million a month commitment to a new super political-action committee to support former President Donald Trump. This new super PAC will deploy large sums of money and other resources in critical swing states to counter ‘get out the vote’ campaigns by Democrats.
Called ‘America PAC,’ the group is reportedly focused on registering voters and convincing constituents to vote early and request mail-in ballots across swing states, according to the people. The group will counter get out the vote campaigns by Democrats in swing states.
Besides Musk, America PAC is supported by Palantir Technologies co-founder Joe Lonsdale, Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, and former US ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft and her husband, Joe, the chief executive of coal producer Alliance Resource Partners.
According to a Monday filing, America PAC received $8.75 million in contributions for the quarter ending June 30, as reported by the WSJ. Musk is rumored to begin his donations this month.
A recent Bloomberg News report indicated Musk had donated to the new super PAC last week, although the donation size was not mentioned.
Following the failed assassination attempt on Trump, Musk wrote on X on Saturday evening, “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery,” adding, “Last time America had a candidate this tough was Theodore Roosevelt.”
I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery
0:05
·
211.9M Views
X user End Wokenes wrote, “Elon Musk went from being an Obama voter to pledging $180 million to elect DJT. The woke left really f*cked up. Badly.”
Musk responded with a “Yeah”…
Perhaps the Democrats miscalculated their assault on Musk.
Democrats: FUCK ELON MUSK! Elon Musk: Okay I’m not voting for you then Democrats: YOU MONSTER!
Democrats: FUCK ELON MUSK! Elon Musk: Okay I’m not voting for you then Democrats: YOU MONSTER!
·
108.5K Views
108.5K Views
Musk also praised Trump’s selection of J.D. Vance as his vice-presidential nominee, calling it an “excellent” choice.
Vance has ties with Peter Thiel, the founder of Palantir Technologies. In recent weeks, David Sacks has backed Trump, even hosting a fundraiser at his San Francisco mansion. Whether it’s Thiel, Sacks, or Musk, they were all once part of a group dubbed the ‘PayPal Mafia.’
END
Snipers Were INSIDE Building Used By Trump Failed Assassin; Reported Him Using Range Finder, Took Pictures, And Command Did Nothing
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 11:05 AM
Three Beaver County police snipers were reportedly stationed inside the building used by the shooter in Saturday’s assassination attempt on Donald Trump, a local law enforcement officer with ‘direct knowledge’ of the incident tells CBS News‘ Anna Schecter, and as first reported by the Beaver Countian.
It gets worse…
A sniper, stationed on the second floor providing overwatch, saw the shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks, outside the building and looking up at the roof. He then walked away, returned, whipped out his phone, when one of the snipers took the first of two pictures of him.
Crooks then took out a rangefinder – at which point the sniper radioed to a command post. Crooks then disappeared again and came back a third time with a backpack. The snipers called in once again with information that he had a backpack and that he (Crooks) was walking toward the back of the building.
By the time other officers came for backup, he had climbed on top of the building and was positioned above and behind the snipers inside the building, the officer said.
Two other officers who heard the sniper’s call tried to get onto the roof. State police started rushing to the scene, but by that time, a Secret Service sniper had already killed Crooks, the officer said. –CBS News
So – law enforcement had eyes-on the shooter the entire time, took pictures of him, notified their command post – and nothing was done until Crooks shot Trump, at which point Secret Service snipers returned fire and killed him.
According to local TV station WPXI, officers on the ground spotted Crooks nearly 30 minutes before he fired at Trump.
Channel 11′s Nicole Ford confirmed that Beaver County’s ESU team had eight members at the rally, including snipers and spotters. According to Ford’s sources, one of them noticed a suspicious man on a roof near the rally at 5:45 p.m., called it in and took a picture of the person. We have learned from our sources the person in that picture is Thomas Crooks. We’re told it’s not clear if Crooks had a gun with him at that point.
According to multiple sources, a law enforcement officer had also previously seen Crooks on the ground and called him in as a suspicious person with a picture prior to 5:45 p.m. Our sources tell us an officer checked the grounds for Crooks at that point, but did not see him where the first picture was taken.
26 minutes after the second picture of Crooks was taken by law enforcement and the information called in, shots were fired from the roof of the American Glass Research building. Seconds later, a Secret Service sniper returned fire and killed Crooks.
So the local police command had roughly 30 minutes to coordinate with the US Secret Service on the suspicious guy with a rangefinder, who they then let climb the roof and attempt to assassinate Donald Trump.
Blame Game
The assassination attempt has pitted the USSC against local law enforcement – with agency director Kimberly Cheatle telling ABC News on Monday that it was the local police’s responsibility to secure the building that was outside the USSC perimeter.
“There was local police in that building – there was local police in the area that were responsible for the outer perimeter of the building,” said Cheatle.
One former Secret Service agent, however, took issue with Cheatle placing so much blame on local law enforcement – telling CNN: “The Service is responsible for everything, not just the inner perimeter. They should make sure all of this is covered.”
“Officers inside a building – that’s not mitigating a high-ground vulnerability,” the former agent continued.
According to Patrick Yoes, national president of the Fraternal Order of Police, this isn’t the snipers’ fault.
“Whatever happened in Butler, this was not a failure of the local, state or federal officers on the ground who responded to the shots fired at former President Trump. They acted heroically and put their lives on the line to protect everyone at the event and we must recognize that,” he said. “This is a failure at the management or command level who failed to secure an obvious weakness in the security of this event.“
Lacalle: Net-Zero Will Make You Poorer
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 06:30 AM
If you read the latest OECD publication, “Employment Outlook 2024: The Net Zero Transition and the Labour Market,” you would imagine that the world has not gone through the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus in decades.
The results are so poor, they are embarrassing.
Furthermore, the report illustrates the impoverishment of citizens and subtly suggests that achieving the net zero goal will present an even greater challenge. Translation: You will be even poorer.
According to the OECD report, 20% of the global workforce is in jobs that will expand due to the net-zero transition.
The report basically tells us that the remaining 80% will face significant challenges.
Furthermore, it highlights that “low-income and rural households usually spend more on goods and services with larger carbon footprints, such as energy and food, because they are typically necessary goods.
Therefore, climate-mitigation policies, by increasing the relative price of carbon-intensive goods, will tend to affect these households as consumers disproportionally, with a strong impact on the real value of their income and wages. Recent carbon pricing reforms in many countries have indeed proved regressive. Recycling the revenue from carbon taxes in the form of transfers to households, however, can make this type of reform progressive. Yet targeting these transfers towards household needs is key to cost efficiency. ” Thus, we are doomed. Just look at the disastrous result of the carbon tax in the European Union, what it has done to inflation of non-replaceable goods and services and the widespread increase in discontent among citizens.
Why do we know that policymakers will not counteract Keynesian policies’ regressive impact? Because they have never done it. To argue that this time will be different is irresponsible when the same OECD report shows the disastrous results of “inclusive” and redistributive policies since 2019.
The report hails the good news of low unemployment rates. However, this publication fails to acknowledge the ease of manipulating unemployment rates. Indeed, the report does not make that connection but highlights how labour force participation has stagnated or declined and how real wages have fallen while average working hours per employee have slumped in the United States.
If the unemployment rate has fallen but the average hours worked per worker are flat, the labour participation rate has slumped, and real wages have declined, then there is no real improvement in employment.
According to the OECD report, average hours worked per worker have declined in all countries except three of the entire OECD, and real wage growth is negative in the United States as well as many other economies.
Now remember that these dreadful statistics come after the largest so-called “stimulus package” in decades. The largest monetary experiment, combined with an unprecedented level of public debt increase, has left workers poorer. The worst is yet to come.
The OECD report warns that the net zero transition will increase inflation in essential goods and services as well as generate significant displacement of low-skilled labor. They even warn that low-skilled jobs in high-emission sectors pay better, and this will create challenges for citizens.
There is no way in which one can defend this social engineering. Keynesianism always leads to malinvestment, misallocation of capital, higher indebtedness, and worse outcomes for workers and the middle class for a very simple reason: governments do not have better or more information about the requirements of society, and they spend money that comes from somebody else.
Malinvestment does happen in an open economy. However, creative destruction takes care of it. Malinvestment when the government controls the economy is the norm. And instead of creative destruction, we get subsidized misallocation of capital.
The era of constant Keynesian stimulus plans has eroded the middle class and created record levels of public debt. The net zero plan, which is the ultimate Keynesian top-down government-imposed system, will add scarcity, persistent inflation, and impoverishment.
The only way to achieve net zero is to let technology flourish, allow free competition and open markets to work their way, and create a transition that benefits the majority with cheaper and cleaner goods and services. When governments make decisions with public funds, they ensure a negative result. They will overspend, perpetuate inflation, and impoverish the same ones they claim to defend. Socialism never works. Climate socialism is bound to fail miserably, resulting in increased poverty.
end
Bombshell: Secret Service Replaced Trump’s Permanent Detail With ‘Temporary Agents’ For Butler Rally
Fact checked by The People’s Voice Community
July 15, 2024 Baxter Dmitry News, US 7 Comments
Former president Donald J. Trump’s Secret Service permanent detail were stood down for the Butler, Pennsylvania rally on Saturday, according to an admission by Secret Service spokesman Anthony Guglielmi.
In place of Trump’s permanent detail, “supplemental special agents” were sent from the Pittsburgh field office to provide all of the security measures for the rally on Saturday.
The site agent, who was in charge of putting all security measures for a particular event in place, was a “relatively new agent” from the Pittsburgh office with “limited experience,” a Secret Service source told Real Clear Politics.
According to the Secret Service, Trump’s permanent detail were stood down for the Butler rally on Saturday because they were “overburdened” and had been working consecutive seven-day weeks and needed a break.
“Trump has a permanent detail, however, it’s much smaller in the number of bodies than the president’s,” the source explained. “His detail has been worked so hard with all the travel that they’re working seven days a week with shift changes, so headquarters sends in temporary agents to supplement. Not a good scenario.”
An incident occurred the evening of July 13 at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania. The Secret Service has implemented protective measures and the former President is safe. This is now an active Secret Service investigation and further information will be released when available.
from Buckhall, VA
·
5.1M Views
The Secret Service faced sharp criticism for skipping a press conference Saturday night after the deadly shooting, which local officials and FBI officials attended just hours after Trump was shot.
It wasn’t until Sunday that the Secret Service held a press briefing at Centennial Hall in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, ahead of the Republican National Convention.
Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle eventually released a statement on Monday addressing the shooting, claiming that “Secret Service personnel on the ground moved quickly during the incident, with our counter sniper team neutralizing the shooter and our agents implementing protective measures to ensure the safety of former president Donald Trump.”
Via Real Clear Politics:
Elon Musk called for Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle to resign over the failure to protect Trump from gunfire at the rally. Musk reposted a tweet from Jack Posobiec, who asked, “How was a sniper with a full rifle kit allowed to bear crawl onto the closest roof to a presidential nominee?”
“Extreme incompetence or it was deliberate,” Musk wrote. “Either way, the SS leadership must resign.”
Sen. Josh Hawley, a Missouri Republican, called the assassination attempt “the worst security failure for a president since JFK.”
Inside job
Former acting DHS Director Chad Wolf is also questioning why the Secret Service is using similar resources that it would use for past presidents Obama or Bill Clinton, instead of a more robust protective detail.
“At the end of the day, this is a complete security failure,” Wolf told Fox News Sunday afternoon.
“Is it because of a lack of resources? They are using what they normally would for a former president, but President Trump is not a normal former president.”
Secret Service officials in charge of the event provided only two counter-sniper officers when such an exposed outside rally would normally call for the use of two to three two-man teams, the source continued.
Florida Republican Rep. Mike Waltz, a former Green Beret, insisted Sunday that Trump’s advisors repeatedly requested more security for the former president.
Secret Service spokesman Guglielmi has denied that claim, but Waltz stands by his assertion, citing “very reliable sources.”
end
Hugo Boss…..slides after slashing outlook. Sign of the times
(zerohedge)
Hugo Boss Slides After Slashing Outlook As Luxury Downturn Gains Momentum
TUESDAY, JUL 16, 2024 – 09:10 AM
Hugo Boss tumbled as much as 10% to its lowest levels since 2021 on Tuesday after the luxury German clothing manufacturer slashed its full-year outlook. The company cited sliding demand for luxury goods due to “persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges” and mounting “headwinds” across two key markets, the UK and China.
The German premium-fashion company warned that its financial outlook for 2024 faces “persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges that are dampening global consumer demand.”
“These headwinds contributed to a further slowdown of industry growth, affecting the top- and bottom-line performance of HUGO BOSS in the second quarter,” the company said, adding, “The overall market environment remained particularly challenging in key markets such as the UK and China.”
According to Hugo Boss’s preliminary second-quarter results and full-year outlook statement, it now expects full-year sales of up to 4.35 billion euros, down from a previous forecast of up to 4.45 billion euros.
Here are the key developments in the second quarter:
- Group sales decrease 1% currency-adjusted to EUR 1,015 million as challenging macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions weigh on global consumer demand
- Gross margin increases 50 basis points to 62.9% as HUGO BOSS realizes further efficiency gains in its global sourcing activities
- EBIT amounts to EUR 70 million (-42%), reflecting softer sales trends and strategic investments into the business
- Inventories improve by -7% amid ongoing tight inventory management, supporting strong free cash flow generation in Q2 of EUR 143 million (+137%)
“We are operating in a period of significant global macro uncertainty, which also affected our performance in the second quarter,” CEO Daniel Grieder wrote in the statement.
Grieder continued, “Although the timing of any macro recovery remains uncertain, our strategy of consistently investing in our strong brands, BOSS and HUGO, gives us confidence in our ability to continue driving above-trend growth and capturing further market share.”
Shares of Hugo Boss plunged as much as 10% in Germany on Tuesday. That’s the lowest intraday level since April 2021.
Here’s additional color on the preliminary results from Goldman’s Louise Singlehurst:
2Q24 Preliminary results – Sales -3% below, EBIT -36% light versus consensus expectations. Hugo Boss has pre-released preliminary 2Q24 results, reporting cFX sales declines of -1% (€1,015mn reported), below Visible Alpha Consensus Data (+2%) and GSe (+3%). EBIT in 2Q24 amounted to €70mn, significantly below cons/GSe of €110mn/€108mn, driven partly by the top-line miss and partly by higher than expected opex (marketing +21% YoY, brick and mortar costs +12%) with GP margins inline with expectations. By Channel: The overall composition of the result is soft, with the miss driven by online (-1000bps) and retail deterioration (-100bps), with wholesale broadly inline (-50bps). By Geography: All regions saw a deceleration in trends and drove the miss (-200-300bps lower).
FY24 EBIT guidance is -14% lower vs. prior midpoint: Given greater than expected macro uncertainty, the company has revised lower its reported sales growth guidance to +1-4% (+3-6% prior, cons. +4%, GSe +5%) with EBIT now expected to be between €350-430mn (prior €430-475mn, cons. €439mn, GSe €461mn). We note the updated midpoint is -14% below the prior midpoint or -11% below current FY24 consensus, with a wider range expected (€80mn vs. €45mn prior).
Balance Sheet / CF: BOSS has finished the period with a solid inventory position as a % of sales (-340bps YoY to 24.9%, vs. -330bps in 1Q24) supporting strong Working Capital benefits, and FCF generation (€143mn).
GS View: We expect market expectations were relatively low coming into the print on broader concerns around the premium consumer, with BOSS having underperformed in the last 1m (-8% vs. STOXX 600 +1%). However given BOSS revised expectations lower in March, followed by further market downgrades in May and now incrementally negative updates here, we see risk that normalising brand momentum and relatively thin margins continues to skew earnings risk to the downside. One positive remains the company’s ability to manage working capital, which gives greater FCF support in FY24 as the company moves towards medium term targets inventory to sales of <20% by 2025.
Singlehurst remains “Neutral” on Hugo Boss.
Other Wall Street analysts offered their views on the preliminary results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Citi (neutral)
- Analyst Thomas Chauvet says quarterly sales growth was the weakest since Daniel Grieder became CEO of Hugo Boss in June 2021, and it is first time the company has cut FY guidance during his tenure
- Would expect consensus for FY24 sales and Ebit to drop by 2% and 10% respectively, toward mid-point of revised guidance
- There had been “three years of nearly flawless execution and delivery,” but the premium casual-wear demand environment is now more subdued
Morgan Stanley (equal-weight)
- Consensus is likely to move down to at least the mid-point of the new wide range, according to Grace Smalley
- This would mean about 10% downgrade to FY24 Ebit consensus expectations, with FY25 numbers also likely to “move down meaningfully”
RBC (outperform)
- Analyst Manjari Dhar says new Ebit guidance is about 14% below prior guidance at the midpoint, seemingly in line with RBC’s bear case scenario
- Still views Hugo Boss as a good player in the premium apparel space, but notes tougher backdrop in key markets
Deutsche Bank (buy)
- While sales missed consensus by only 2% in 2Q, Ebit was “massive” miss, analyst Michael Kuhn writes
- Miss essentially due to higher than expected operating expenditure
- Likely no earnings growth for the company now in 2024
Oddo BHF (neutral vs outperform)
- 2Q Ebit significantly below expectations, writes analyst Andreas Riemann, who downgrades rating to neutral
- Brick-and mortar retail and digital both had “difficult” performance
- Growth continues in Americas, but declines in EMEA and APAC
The disappointing update comes as shares of Swiss watchmaker Swatch crashed the most in four years on Monday after the company reported a profit decline amid a slowdown in China. Also on Monday, trench coat maker Burberry suspended its dividend and replaced its CEO on a failed turnaround.
Meanwhile, in the luxury space, all eyes are on LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, who will report next week. That will be a key signal on the overall health of the luxury industry.
In the US, a consumer slowdown continues to gain momentum. We have covered this extensively in the last several months via multiple Goldman notes.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
VDH: Assassination Porn & The Sickness On The Left
MONDAY, JUL 15, 2024 – 10:10 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via X:
If we were leftists and we were to use leftist tropes to editorialize the recent attempt on Trump’s life, then we would frame the assassination attempt in the following way:
We have witnessed for years blatant exceptions to the once common custom that we don’t normalize the imagined killing of any president or presidential candidate and thus lower the bar of violence.
But the Left constantly makes Trump an exception.
Now, it as if the imagined killing of Trump had been mainstreamed and become acceptable in a way inconceivable of other presidents.
(Do we remember the rodeo clown who merely wore an Obama mask during a bull riding contest and was punished by being permanently banned by the Missouri State Fair authorities?)
So since at least 2016 there has been a parlor game among Leftist celebrities and entertainers joking (one hopes), dreaming, imagining, and just talking about the various and graphic ways they would like to assassinate or seriously injure Trump:
By slugging his face (Robert De Niro),
by decapitation (Kathy Griffin, Marilyn Manson),
by stabbing (Shakespeare in the Park),
by clubbing (Mickey Rourke),
by shooting ( Snoop Dogg), by poisoning (Anthony Bourdain),
by bounty killing (George Lopez),
by carrion eating his corpse (Pearl Jam),
by suffocating (Larry Whilmore),
by blowing him up (Madonna, Moby),
by throwing him over a cliff (Rosie O’Donnell),
just by generic “killing” him (Johnny Depp, Big Sean),
or by martyring him (Reid Hoffman: “Yeah, I wish I had made him an actual martyr.”).
Or should we deplore the use of telescopic scope imagery, given that the Left blamed Sarah Palin for once using bullseye spots on an election map of opposition congressional districts, claiming that such usage had incited the mass shooting by Jared Lee Loughner?
Yet, recently POTUS Joe Biden was a little bit more graphic and a lot more literal.
In a widely reported call to hundreds of donors last week, Biden boasted, “I have one job, and that’s to beat Donald Trump. I’m absolutely certain I’m the best person to be able to do that. So, we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.”
NBC’s Lester Holt pushes President Biden on some of the language he has used when talking about Trump in the past. Specifically, the “bullseye” comment that Biden made on a donor call. Biden responds, in part, by saying: “you can’t only love your country when you win,” referring to Trump’s January 6 rhetoric.
·
283.5K Views
“In a bullseye?”
At least, Biden did not go back to the full Biden beat-up porn of the past (e.g., “If we were in high school, I’d take him behind the gym and beat the hell out of him”/ “The press always asks me, ‘Don’t I wish I were debating him?’ No, I wish we were in high school – I could take him behind the gym. That’s what I wish.”).
Then there is the question of the Secret Service and one’s political opponents. Given the tragic history of the Kennedys, why in the world did the Biden administration not insist that third-party candidate Robert Kennedy, Jr. be accorded Secret Service protection?
Because his candidacy was felt to be disadvantageous to Biden?
And why just this April would the former head of the January 6th Committee and 2004 election obstructionist Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) introduce legislation ridiculously entitled, “Denying Infinite Security and Government Resources Allocated toward Convicted and Extremely Dishonorable (DISGRACED) Former Protectees Act” to strip away Secret Service protection for former President Trump and by this April current leading presidential candidate?
Had Thompson’s bill passed, would that not have been confirmation for a potential shooter to feel his task was just made much easier?
But in a wider sense, if the common referent day after day on the Left is that Trump is another Hitler (cf. a recent The New Republic cover where Trump is literally photoshopped as Hitler), then it seems reckless not to imagine an unhinged or young shootist believing that by taking out somewhat identical to one of the greatest mass murderers in history, he would be applauded for his violence?
So is their logic, shoot Trump and save six million from the gas chambers?
After all, The New Republic defiantly explained their Hitler-Trump cover photo this way, “Today, we at The New Republic think we can spend this election year in one of two ways. We can spend it debating whether Trump meets the nine or 17 points that define fascism. Or we can spend it saying, “He’s damn close enough, and we’d better fight.”
Well, New Republic, recently someone took you up on your argument that Trump was “damn close enough” to Hitler and so he likewise chose to “fight”— albeit with a semi-automatic rifle.
If ad nauseam, a Joy Reid is screaming about Trump as a Hitlerian dictator (“Then let me know who I got to vote for to keep Hitler out of the White House”) or Rachel Maddow is bloviating about studying Hitler to understand Trump, then finally the message sinks in that a mass murderer is about to take power – unless…
Finally, the idea, if true, that bystanders spotted a 20-year-old on a nearby roof with a gun, a mere 130 yards from Trump, and in vain warned police of his presence, is surreal. Is it all that hard for the Secret Service to post a few agents on the tops of a few surrounding buildings closest to the dais, or at least coordinate with local law enforcement to do the same?
That is a no brainer.
Whoever made the decisions concerning the proper secret service security details for presidential events should be immediately fired.
NEWT GINGRICH
END
SWAMP NEWS
KING REPORT
| The King Report July 16, 2018 Issue 7284 | Independent View of the News |
| Judge dismisses Trump’s classified documents case, rules special counsel unlawfully appointed “The Superseding Indictment is DISMISSED because Special Counsel Smith’s appointment violates the Appointments Clause of the United States Constitution,” Judge Aileen Cannon wrote in her order granting Trump’s motion to dismiss. The judge ruled that no federal statute cited by the Justice Department authorized the appointment of Special Counsel Jack Smith by the Attorney General, meaning he has no authority to prosecute the case… (Garland looks like an even bigger putz now!) https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/judge-dismisses-trumps-classified-documents-case Judge Cannon: “If the political branches wish to grant the Attorney General power to appoint Special Counsel Smith to investigate and prosecute this action with the full powers of a United States Attorney, there is a valid means by which to do so. He can be appointed and confirmed through the default method prescribed in the Appointments Clause, as Congress has directed for United States Attorneys throughout American history, see 28 U.S.C. § 541, or Congress can authorize his appointment through enactment of positive statutory law consistent with the Appointments Clause.” (The DoJ said it will appeal.) Jack Smith is a private citizen that was appointed Special Counsel. Hunter Biden’s Special Counsel, Robert Hur, is a confirmed US Attorney. This is a crucial difference. @ChadPergram: Schumer: This breathtakingly misguided ruling flies in the face of long-accepted practice and repetitive judicial precedence. It is wrong on the law and must be appealed immediately. This is further evidence that Judge Cannon cannot handle this case impartially and must be reassigned. Schumer, once again, threatening democracy by impugning the rule of law and Constitution! Hey Chuckie Cheese, “long-accepted practice” doesn’t equate to constitutional; see slavery in the USA! Ex-Obama & DJT advisor General Mike Flynn @GenFlynn: Given the recent decision by Judge Cannon regarding prosecutor Jack Smith’s “classified documents” case, the following can now be stated. 1. A filed whistleblower complaint has Smith and other members close to him inside the DOJ under serious investigation by the DOJ OIG (yes, there are some good guys—but we’ll see). 2. Deposed witnesses (part of this WB complaint) have been offered massive bribes to back off their statements (by apparently Americans—to be named later). The bribes are north of $25M… 3. I am told Judge Cannon had either requested or received a copy of this whistleblower complaint (I have zero idea if she actually received it or read it)… 4. This has been an ongoing investigation for well over a year now led by very credible investigators and the public whistleblower complaint was posted back in DEC (go find it)…. 6. Be prepared for more on this very serious case which stands in history to be one of the most egregious abuses of authority within the department of justice (if the truth plays out here, the 2nd and 3rd order effects could very well prove to be stunning to America’s national security). 7. The media hasn’t covered one iota of this (no surprise here). CNN: ‘Morning Joe’ pulled from air Monday because of Trump shooting – The decision was made to avoid a scenario in which one of the show’s stable of two dozen-plus guests might make an inappropriate comment on live television that could be used to assail the program and network as a whole… Cesar Conde, the chairman of NBCUniversal News Group, made the decision in conjunction with Rashida Jones, the president of MSNBC, and hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski, the person familiar with the matter told CNN…(Finally, the adults are retaking control from the radical ideologues!) Reporting is now facing scrutiny, with some Trump supporters blaming it for producing a charged atmosphere that gave way to the assassination attempt… https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/14/media/msnbc-morning-joe-pulled-trump-assassination/index.html This is a tacit admission by the suits that the vitriol and hate spewed by its hosts and guests can cause… @WesternLensman: Scarborough, 2023: “If he’s elected…Trump will execute whoever he wants.” https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1812864506751553824 GOP Rep. @mattgaetz: @NBCNews taking Morning Joe and @NicolleDWallace off air in a historic moment as Republicans prepare to nominate Donald Trump is an explicit admission that these are not news programs. It’s outrage porn that NBC can no longer rely upon for publishable content in this moment in time. Stunning, really. @mirandadevine: Trump-deranged hysterical hate-monger “Morning Joe” pulled off air today because he’s so emotionally incontinent he can’t be trusted to speak about the Trump assassination attempt. MSNBC probably scared they’ll get sued for incitement. @SWGaspar: MSNBC is already facing some serious litigation because of previous comments from Maddow. They’ve also settled several cases for undisclosed amounts to others. I have a feeling they are being advised by legal counsel on programming decisions at this point. Trump rally shooting upends Democrats’ Biden crisis – Axios The second senior House Democrat offered one reason for why it might: “We’ve all resigned ourselves to a second Trump presidency.” https://www.axios.com/2024/07/14/house-democrats-biden-trump-rally-shooting Grateful, defiant Trump recounts surviving ‘surreal’ assassination attempt at rally: ‘I’m supposed to be dead’ – “The doctor at the hospital said he never saw anything like this, he called it a miracle… By luck or by God, many people are saying it’s by God I’m still here.” https://trib.al/HsKnMyz In 1981, Ronald Reagan (March) and Pope John Paul II (May) barely survived assassination attempts. Both attributed their survival to divine intervention, and it led to the belief that they had a divine mission. Reagan and the pope, along with Margaret Thatcher, then boldly executed a plan to upend the USSR. Byron York: Trump did not mean that a new speech has been fully written, but parts of it have already been drafted, starting in the hours after the assassination attempt. The idea is to reframe the intense conflicts Trump has engaged in during his years in national politics. “I’ve been fighting a group of people that I considered very bad people for a long time, and they’ve been fighting me, and we’ve put up a very good fight,” Trump said. “We had a very tough speech, and I threw it out last night. I said I can’t say these things after what I’ve been through.”… (DJT says a chunk of his ear is gone.) https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/3082224/trump-im-not-supposed-to-be-here/ Trump acknowledges that the cry for ‘unity’ is likely to be short lived. But it could be valuable for the election – especially with suburban women. Trump announced that he selected combative populist Sen. JD Vance (Ohio) to be his VP. A huge security detail appeared at JD’s home on Monday morning. DJT statement with brief bio on Vance: https://x.com/alx/status/1812927360502800500/photo/1 More on (Ex-DJT critic) Vance: https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-picks-ohios-j-d-vance-as-running-mate @WhitlockJason: If you’ve never read the book Hillbilly Elegy, I suggest you do. It captures what it’s like growing up poor/working class in middle America. I couldn’t believe how similar JD Vance’s story was to my own family. Fantastic choice for VP! (Vance graduated from OSU and Yale Law.) @DavidSacks: When the Twin Towers came down, JD Vance enlisted in the Marine Corps, gung-ho to exact justice on America’s enemies. Subsequently he came to believe the Forever Wars were a mistake. This is who I want by Trump’s side: an American patriot, with the courage to fight America’s wars but the wisdom to know when to avoid them. God bless JD, God bless Trump, and God bless the USA. @CynicalPublius: J. D. Vance… I’m just going to quickly say why I love the pick. 1. Combat veteran of our RECENT WARS. Last POTUS/VPOTUS who was a combat vet was Gore in Vietnam, and H. W. Bush before that torpedo bombing Japanese cruisers. JD understands our useless, endless wars better than anybody else on the scene. 2. Impoverished background. He’s not an elite. He understands what it means to be left behind. This will resonate in the key Rust Belt states. I’m trying to think from memory of the last POTUS/VPOTUS from a genuinely dirt-poor background. I’m drawing a blank. Abe Lincoln maybe? 3. IQ. The guy is smart as a whip and incredibly articulate. You could subtract 50 points from his IQ and he would still be smarter than Kamala. 4. Yale lawyer and venture capitalist. He understands how the Blob works but he is not part of it. He knows its vulnerabilities from the inside. 5. Pit bull. Post-shooting Trump is now the uniter, speaking to our better angels. JD is now Trump’s cold blooded attack dog who will rip the Fascist Democrats at every turn, and he will be spectacularly good at it. 6. Young. He is going to carry the MAGA torch for decades. @elonmusk: Assassination insurance Dopey Biden immediately attacked Vance for favoring the rich. Joe obviously didn’t do any work on JD. PS – Vance’s wife is Hindu; Kamala Harris is Jamaican-Hindu. Hmmm At the GOP Convention in Milwaukee, delegates officially nominated DJT for president. World’s largest money manager BlackRock pulls ad featuring Trump shooter Thomas Matthew Crooks — NYP https://nypost.com/2024/07/15/us-news/blackrock-pulls-ad-that-featured-trump-shooter-thomas-matthew-crooks/ Powell on Monday: Last 3 inflation reports add to confidence; can’t wait for inflation to get to 2% to cut; need bipartisan effort to get deficit and debt under control; very worried about deficits; fed not political On Monday, Traders poured into stuff for Expiry Week and Q2 earnings season. Early in the day, Fangs led the rally, which is a hallmark of both the Expiry Week Rally and the Earnings Season Rally. ESUs had their usual Sunday night rally and ESUs methodically moved higher, without interruption, until they had a modest retreat after 7:30 ET. A spurt for the NYSE opening took ESUs to a high of 5698.00 at 9:41 ET. The dump pushed ESUs down to 5683.2 at 9:45 ET. The usual suspects then manically bought stuff; ESUs hit a daily high of 5718.75 at 11:23 ET. ESUs then sank because Powell was not as dovish as expected in his interview (Began 12:30 ET); ESUs sank to 5676.75 at 13:32 ET. The afternoon rally took ESUs to 5695.50 at 15:19 ET. At 15:24 ET, ESUs commenced a tumble that took ESUs to 5674.25 at 15:49 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESUs to 5688.00 at 16:00 ET (14 handle manipulation in 11 minutes, where’s the SEC?). The NY Fang+ Index hit its daily high at 11:22 ET. It then sank 184 points by 14:13 ET. It could only muster a modest rally in the afternoon. This is an anomaly for Expiry Week and Earnings Season. USUs sank after their Sunday night opening and hit a daily low of 118 23/32, -1 /5/32 at 18:03 ET. They then traded in a large range, registering a daily high of 119 18/32 at 12:40 ET. USUs then retreated into the range for the remainder of trading. Biden to Announce (today) Plan to Cap Rents at 5% Nationwide – WaPo (Leftist rice controls!) Biden’s plan — which would need to be approved by Congress — calls for stripping a tax benefit from landlords who increase their tenants’ rent more than 5 percent per year, the people said. The measure would only apply to landlords who own more than 50 units, which represents roughly half of all rental properties… https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2024/07/15/rent-cap-biden-housing/ @Barchart: Chinese Existing Home Prices declined by 7.9% year-over-year last month, the largest decline in history! https://t.co/LWmDPzll8K Positive aspects of previous session Fangs soared early; the DJTA, on laggard buying, was the strongest equity index Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined again; the yield curve continues to steepen (Implies inflation, Jerome!) Fangs sank after an early surge (indication of fatigue) Ambiguous aspects of previous session How inflated will the latest US stock bubble get? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5637.64 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5666.94; 5614.75 @elonmusk: 𝕏 usage hit another all-time high yesterday with 417 billion user-seconds globally! In the US, user-seconds reached 93B, 23% higher than the previous record of 76B. In a single day. Biden’s call for unity ended during his interview with NBC’s Lester Holt. Biden reiterated, mumbled, that Trump is a threat to democracy. @RNCResearch: NBC: “Have you taken a step back and done a little soul searching on things that you may have said that could incite people who are not balanced?” BIDEN (LYING): “I have not engaged in that rhetoric.” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1812960336309260542 NBC: You called President Trump “an existential threat” and said it’s time to put him “in the bullseye.” BIDEN: “I didn’t say ‘crosshairs...'” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1812960871150461311 @RNCResearch: Biden ignores questions about his incendiary rhetoric as he shuffles out of the White House and heads to Nevada. https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1812950458757226870 The Biden campaign plans to label Trump’s running mate, JD Vance, as ‘extreme’ (Unity?) https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna158844 Today – Seasonal upward biases and rotational buying generated an equity rally on Monday. However, the action in Fangs suggests that traders are too long for the Expiry Week manipulation and earning season rally. Also, Mr. Bond, despite rate cut expectations, or due to the prospect of rate cuts, is not happy. We’ve mentioned this dynamic a few times over the past several weeks. Traders will continue to play for the Expiry Week and Earnings Season Rallies. The key will be if stocks, notably Fangs, can hold the usual morning buying. Traders are loading up on Monday night for the expected rallies. ‘Tis why NQUs are +50.50; ESUs are +9.50; and USUs are +7/32 at 20:30 ET. Expected econ data: June Retail Sales -0.3% m/m (Good be stronger on Juneteenth sales), Ex-Autos +0.1%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.2%; June Import Prices -0.2% m/m & 1.0% y/y, Ex-Petro -0.2% m/m; Export Prices -0.1% m/m & 1.0% y/y; May Business Inventories 0.5%; July NAHB Housing Market Index 43; Fed Gov Adriana Kugoer 14:45 ET Expected earnings: PNC 2.97, BAC .80, UNH 6.59, STT 2.03, MS 1.65, JBHT 1.48 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5375; 100-day MA: 5251; 150-day MA: 5108; 200-day MA: 4925 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,152; 100-day MA: 38,953; 150-day MA: 38,562; 200-day MA: 37,457 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5631.22 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5364.74 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5541.91 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5611.28 triggers a sell signal Trump shooter was spotted on the roof by law enforcement nearly 30 minutes before the shooting According to multiple sources, a law enforcement officer had also previously seen Crooks on the ground and called him in as a suspicious person with a picture prior to 5:45 p.m. Our sources tell us an officer checked the grounds for Crooks at that point but did not see him where the first picture was taken. 26 minutes after the second picture of Crooks was taken by law enforcement and the information called in, shots were fired from the roof of the American Glass Research building. Seconds later, a Secret Service sniper returned fire and killed Crooks… (USSS says local cops swept the AGR Building.) https://www.wpxi.com/news/local/alleged-trump-shooter-spotted-by-law-enforcement-nearly-30-minutes-before-shots-fired-sources-say/Q6GIK5RP6RBY5PHIMYBNXRTEBI/ ABC News: Building where gunman was found was officer staging area The building where gunman Thomas Crooks scrambled onto the roof and opened fire was the staging area for the local police tactical team doing overwatch of the crowd, two law enforcement officials told ABC News. Sources previously told ABC News that the building had been swept, but investigators are trying to determine whether roof access had been properly locked down. The gunman gained roof access without a ladder (Had to be through the building or he was Spiderman), according to a source…. https://abc7.com/live-updates/donald-trump-rally-shooting-building-where-gunman-was-found-officer-staging-area/15057158/ A 20-year-old accesses the roof of the local police staging building and shoots at DJT!?!? Was the AGR Building NOT secured? Fox reports that contrary to ABC’s report, Crooks bought and used a ladder. Jesse Walters of Fox said the USSS did NOT sweep the AGR Building; it assumed the local cops did that. The local police retorted that they are NOT responsible for the sweep; the USSS was responsible. Allegedly: “SWAT team was supposed to be on the roof of the AGR Building but opted for the floor below because it was hot… Secret Service sniper could not take the shot immediately because he had to de conflict it wasn’t SWAT because that was supposed to be their primary location…” (Explains much) https://x.com/BravoKiloActual/status/1812959974135591163/photo/1 The US media asked DHS Secretary Mayorkas if the Trump assassination attempt was an inside job! @TheChiefNerd: Sec. Mayorkas Says It’s ‘Unequivocally False’ That Trump’s Assassination Attempt Was An ‘Inside Job’. “We have to tamp down the rhetoric in this country. The rhetoric itself creates the threat environment.” https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1812938914598166730 Ex-USSS agent Dan Bongino says USSS sources tell him “They had been monitoring [the sh*oter] since he came in around that external perimeter area… they lost track of him, apparently, and he was hiding in a building about 300 yards away… if they had this subject on their radar that you had a potential threat, I think the questions right now are fairly obvious. Why was President Trump even on stage at that point? He should have not been on stage. It’s ridiculous… https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1812874165420019765 Ex-WH official @DarrenJBeattie: The question isn’t just how in the hell that roof 150 yards away from Trump was unguarded. The question is also how this gunman knew that it was unguarded! Wouldn’t the assumption be you get shot the second you get up there? He had a rifle. (PS – There was an attached ladder on the building. That security let be.) Pic that shows Trump Butler, PA rally area including the building in question at link: https://x.com/JamesKInFlorida/status/1812621000787292627 @SpeakerJohnson: I asked Secretary Mayorkas: Where were the drones on Saturday? He had no answer. The American people deserve answers… GOP Rep. @laurenboebert: I’ll be introducing legislation ASAP to hold Kimberly Cheatle, the Director of the Secret Service, accountable for allowing President Trump to get shot in an assassination attempt. Either this was intentional, or the Secret Service was grossly incompetent on Saturday. Director Cheatle has got to go! @EndWokeness: Everyone MUST watch this split-screen video of the moments leading up to the attack. Secret Service had 2 FULL MINUTES. If not for 𝕏, you’d never see this: https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1812810227739132168 The Navy Seal, Rob O’Neill, who shot bin Laden believes Trump’s shooter had assistance. Rob O’Neill & Tim Kennedy Say Trump’s Assassination Attempt ‘Doesn’t Pass the Smell Test’ O’Neill: “I love to be on both sides and not be a conspiracy theorist, but this is not real. It’s got to be inside… It’s just this doesn’t pass a smell test… https://x.com/TheChiefNerd/status/1812853145782964595 All snipers, ex-FBI or USSS agents make the point that the building where the shooter was is the optimal place (130 yards from Trump) to take a shot – and the dopiest security personal would recognize this. They claim leaving the building and roof unguarded is very, very disturbing. @DC_Draino: Trump Assassin video shows him crawling on the roof while multiple people point him out to police. They yelled about him for *almost an entire minute.* It’s insane how Secret Service allowed this amateur to almost kill Trump. https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1812642041391915384 @JesseBWatters: (Ex USSS agent) @dbongino says sources tell him there were very few actual Secret Service agents posted at the Butler rally site. He says a lot of them were temp Homeland Security agents. Bongino says this was gross incompetence by the Secret Service Counter Sniper Team and the entire Secret Service. https://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1812653990150078756 @charliekirk11: Sources tell NBC News that the roof where the shooter was located was a “well known, high priority vulnerability” identified in a security walk through the day before. They confirm that the counter sniper did not need approval to shoot and did NOT follow prior protocol. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1812665335075483945 @JesseBWatters: Former Army Sniper and Congressman Cory Mills says of the Secret Service at the deadly Trump rally, “This was massive negligence to the point of me speculating what was intentional and what wasn’t.” https://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1812651872995446894 FBI has accessed the phone of Thomas Crooks, the alleged Trump shooter, and based on the preliminary analysis of the phone the info has not helped the FBI determine what Crooks’ motive was for shooting at Trump – NBC @TPV_John: Former Canadian Military Sniper @dallasalexandr from Elite unit JTF2 CONFIRMS assassination attempt on @realDonaldTrump WAS PART OF AN INSIDE JOB. “I have no doubt in my mind, the shooter had help from somewhere within an agency, an organization or the Government”. https://x.com/dallasalexandr/status/1812540147348439332 @Squawk55: Former Green Baret/Special Forces sniper chimes in … (Butler, PA shooter got help) https://x.com/Squawk55/status/1812651095287865834 Secret Service before DEI and after DEI: https://x.com/Just_A_Dude_AZ/status/1812665941970551051 @townhallcom: Mayorkas announces “enhanced” protection for Donald Trump following assassination attempt. (and USSS protection for RFK Jr.) https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1812926799426240586 Any Assassination Investigation That Includes Merrick Garland or Chris Wray Is A Coverup Merrick Garland’s Long Trump-Persecution Rap Sheet… The FBI’s Decade-Long Jihad Against Trump https://thefederalist.com/2024/07/15/any-assassination-investigation-that-includes-merrick-garland-or-chris-wray-is-a-coverup/ @elonmusk: The New York Times just published this about Trump today (Sunday). They are truly callous and despicable human beings. Not a shred of empathy. “He failed the test of leadership and betrayed America. https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1812602944975782245 NYT Editorial Board on Sunday: HE IS DANGEROUS IN WORD, DEED AND ACTION HE PUTS SELF OVER COUNTRY HE LOATHES THE LAWS WE LIVE BY DONALD TRUMP IS UNFIT TO LEAD Mr. Trump has shown a character unworthy of the responsibilities of the presidency. He has demonstrated an utter lack of respect for the Constitution, the rule of law and the American people… https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/07/11/opinion/editorials/donald-trump-2024-unfit.html NY Times editor defends editorial declaring Trump ‘unfit to lead’ following assassination attempt “The print edition of Sunday Opinion is prepared days before it appears on newsstands, and the July 14 section was finalized and printed before the events of Saturday evening,”… https://trib.al/EjJ7q8k Alex Soros sparks controversy with cryptic tweet alluding to Trump’s removal Alex Soros, son of George Soros and Chair of the Open Society, has stirred controversy by sharing a tweet featuring a bullet hole and the number 47 he tweet, originating from the far-left publication The Atlantic, discusses the challenges facing the U.S., including crime and inflation and hints at the possibility of Donald Trump becoming the 47th president… https://www.voiceofeurope.com/public/alex-soros-sparks-controversy-with-cryptic-tweet-alluding-to-trumps-removal “We Settle Our Differences at The Battle Box” – Biden Oval Office Speech Marred by Latest Huge Gaffe (The Big Guy also gaffed: “the former Trump.”) https://www.zerohedge.com/political/we-settle-our-differences-battle-box-biden-oval-office-speech-marred-latest-huge-gaffe Robert Fico, Slovak PM, who survived a shooting: “Political opponents of Donald Trump are trying to imprison him, and when they don’t succeed, they enrage the public so much that some poor bugger picks up a gun.” https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/fico-compares-trumps-shooting-to-his-own-assassination-attempt/ Others are now asserting what we opined in our Monday letter, Biden’s chief campaign strategy is over, and The Big Guy must now run on his record and fear mongering about Trump’s agenda. @zerohedge: Rabobank: “the attempt on Trump’s life deprives the Biden campaign of a favored campaign tactic: making Trump’s behavior and agenda the central campaign issue. It will be difficult for President Biden to simultaneously argue for national unity and lowering the temperature of the debate, while also suggesting that Trump’s character and program are a risk to American democracy. The Biden campaign is snookered and will have to run instead on the President’s record in office: a message that has thus far failed to cut through with voters.” @cspan:.@SecMayorkas: “In light of this weekend’s events, the president has directed me to work with the Secret Service to provide protection to Robert Kennedy, Jr.” Head of Secret Service REFUSES to resign 48 hours after Trump assassination attempt security failure https://trib.al/hZtfwp6 @elonmusk: Nobody ever gets fired, even when a presidential candidate is almost assassinated! Incompetence costs lives. @TheBabylonBee: Secret Service Vows to Find Out What Went Wrong at The Trump Rally as Soon as They Figure Out Who Left Cocaine in The White House GOP Sen. @LindseyGrahamSC: Senator @JDVance1 has one of the most compelling stories in American politics, overcoming so much adversity in life. He understands the struggles of working Americans, as he has walked in their shoes and has become one of their best champions. Bright, articulate, and a Marine veteran, he will serve President Trump well on the campaign trail. It is imperative we win this election to end the disastrous policies of the Biden Administration and Make America Great Again. J.D. is a hard worker with a beautiful family who will be a great spokesperson for the America First agenda. This is a clear choice for America. Trump-Vance 2024. @TuckerCarlson: Lindsey Graham is a liar. No one lobbied harder against JD Vance than he did, and in the sleaziest, most vicious way. He was doing it this morning. This is why everyone hates Washington, because people like Lindsey Graham are happy to lie right to your face, smiling as they plot your destruction. It’s disgusting. The remnants of the Bush-wing of the GOP (GOPe) know they are on the outs. So far, on the first night of the GOP Convention, people, including GOP legislators and speakers, are emphasizing the divine intervention aspect of Trump’s near assassination. What does it mean for Biden and Trump if the media, due to DJT’s near assassination, refrain from their historic venomous rhetoric for Trump during the remainder of the campaign? And what if the media starts to hold Team Biden accountable for their rhetoric and lies? What Jan. 6 was to Dems and media, July 13 is even more so for the GOP. | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
