JULY 18/BLOG/GOLD CLOSED DOWN $2.20 TO $2453.90 WHILE SILVER CLOSED DOWN 13 CENTS TO $30.04//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $21.05 TP $976.90 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS ALSO DOWN $23.00 TO $935.60//ECB HOLDS RATES STEADY/MEP’S TO BOYCOTT EU PRESIDENCY OVER ORBAN’S PEACE OVERTURES TO RUSSIA/ISRAEL VS HAMAS: SEEMS HAAMS IS NOW IN DISARRAY/ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH: MORE FREQUENCY ATTACK BY HEZBOLLAH//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC/BIDEN NEWS: SEEMS THAT THE LEFT WANT HIM TO LLEAVEL//IMPORTANT COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM PEPE ESCODAR/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//.
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 6 661 C JP MORGAN 4 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 1
TOTAL: 6 6 MONTH TO DATE: 3,649
JPMorgan stopped 0/6
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 6 NOTICES FOR 600 OZ or 0.01866 TONNES
total notices so far: 3649 contracts for 364,900 Oz (11.349 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 9 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.045 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6011 for 30.055 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.13 AT THE SLV//
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV///
// INVENTORY RISES AT 435.854 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 435.854 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1422 CONTRACTS TO 165,019 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED L;OSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.75 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD LITTLE LIQUIDATION AS WE HAD A SMALL NET GAIN OF 6 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE, AGAIN HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE SURPRISING GAIN OF OI ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ANOTHER HUMONGOUS SIZED 1158 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 1158 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.75) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 6 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $0.75.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1430 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 30,000 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 30.535 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGED SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1158 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 200
CONTRACTS //
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 DAYS, total 13,305 contracts: OR 66.525 MILLION OZ (1023 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 66.525 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 66.525 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1622 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1430 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THEY WILL TRY AND TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 30.535 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS OF 192 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1158 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING/// WITH MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (1158) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 9 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.045 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 12,397 OI CONTRACTS TO 594,767 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 2508 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (12,397 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $6.65 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 11.5894 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $6.65 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 18,157 OI CONTRACTS (56.47 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES., WITH OUR LONGS TOTALY OBLIVIOUS TO THE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE STUPID BANKS
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5760 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 592,259, CLIMBING ON A DAILY BASIS.
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,157 CONTRACTS WITH 12,397 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5760 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 18,157 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 2851 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5760 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 12,397 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 18,157 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 11.5894 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION OF CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUGE SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2851 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 57,720 CONTRACTS OR 5,772,000 OZ OR 179.53 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4440 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 179.53 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 179.53 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 179.53 TONNES (WILL BE A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1622 CONTRACTS OI TO 165,019 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1430 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1430 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1430 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1622 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1430 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 192 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.096 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.75 LOSS IN PRICE …..
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.28 PTS OR 0.48% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.00 PTS OR 0.22% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 971,34 OR 2.36%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.37%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2576 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2670/ Oil UP TO 82.77dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 84.92/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 12,397 CONTRACTS TO 592,259 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.65 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE LONGS COULD NOT CAR LESS WITH THE RAID. THEY DECIDED ON MASSE TO ATTACK AND THEN TENDER FOR PHYSICAL.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5760 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST5760 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5760 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 18,157 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5760 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 12,397 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.65/WEDNESDAY COMEX.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 2851 CONTRACTS. MOST OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN YESTERDAY’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (11.5894 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.5894 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $6.65 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 18,157 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 56.47 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.5894 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 11.5894 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.65
WE HAVE REMOVED 2508 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 18,157 CONTRACTS OR 1,815,700 OZ (56.47 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3649 notices 364,900 oz 11.349 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposit:
total deposit: nil oz
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Loomis: 130,050.795 oz (real gold leaving)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 130,050.795 oz
Adjustment 2
Loomis: dealer to customer 482.265 oz
Brinks: customer to dealer: 1188.473 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 83 contracts having LOST 16 contracts. We had 20 notices filed on Wednesday so we gained 4 contracts or an additional 400 oz will stand at the comex (0.0124 tonnes). Somebody was in great need of physical gold on this side of the pond again today.
AUGUST LOST 4428 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 260,817 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 128 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 582.
OCTOBER GAINED 2589 CONTRACTS UP TO 43,353 CONTRACTS
We had 6 contracts filed for today representing 600 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 4 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 6 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3649) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 83( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (6 x 100 oz per contract( equals 372,600 OZ OR 11.5894 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (3649 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (83 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (6) x 100 oz which equals 372,600 oz (11.5894 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 11.5894 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,568,922.890 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,787,032.502 ( 242.20 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,787,032.502 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,117,560 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.28 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 18/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,685,119.607oz
BRINKS DELAWARE
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,774,869.480 oz
asahi cnt loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
9 CONTRACT(S) (.045 million OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
96 contracts (0.480 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
6011 Contracts (30.055 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 customer deposits:
i)Into ASAHI: 590,467.800 oz
ii) Into CNT: 1,990.730 oz
iii) Into Loomis: 1182,410.950 oz
total customer deposit 1,774,869.480 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 131.967million oz/301.920million or 43.71%
adjustment: 1
customer to dealer brinks 26,466.440 oz
customer withdrawals: 2
i) out of Delaware 894,394.967 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 790,,724.640 oz
total withdrawal: 1,685,119.607 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.377 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 301.920 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 105 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 4 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 2 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 6 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 30,000 OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX VIA A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER HERE.
AUG, SAW A GAIN OF 156 CONTRACTS TO 1436
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 1759 CONTRACTS TO 130,340
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 9 for 0.045 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 104,461 HUGE
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6011 x 5,000 oz = 30,055 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( 105) and the number of notices served upon today 9 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 6011 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (106)x number of notices served upon today minus (9)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 30.535 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 30.535 million oz.
There are 69.360 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 842.02 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 435.854 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
ASIA TRADING//WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.28 PTS OR 0.48% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.00 PTS OR 0.22% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 971,34 OR 2.36%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.37%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,2576 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2670/ Oil UP TO 82.77dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 84.92/Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2576
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2670
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.28 PTS OR 0.48 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 39.00 PTS OR 0.22%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 971.34 PTS OR 2.36%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.53 EURO FALLS TO 1.0931 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1,039 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 156.43 JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WELL AS LONG TERM 10 YR. YIELDS RISING //EVENTUALLY THIS WILL BREAK THE JAPANESE CENTRAL BANK
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4420/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.728 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.211%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.381
3j Gold at $2465.45//Silver at: 30.41 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 43/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 87.96
3m oil into the 82 dollar handle for WTI and 84 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 156.43/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.039% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8842 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9665 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.181 UP 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.400 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.461 UP 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.09…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1145 UP 4 PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rebound After Tech Rout Thanks To Strong TSMC Results
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 08:06 AM
Futures are higher, rebounding from Wednesday’s tech-fueled rout. At 7:40am, S&P futures are up 0.1% and off session highs, while Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% after concerns over tight US restrictions on chip sales to China drove its worst day since 2022; Semi stocks see some relief after Taiwan chip giant TSMC’s earnings beat expectations: NVDA +2.7%, AMD +2.1%, AVGO +1.3%. Mag7 names are higher, too, with VRT +1.7% pointing to potential gains in second derivative AI plays. Major The Stoxx 600 index added 0.3% as most European markets trade higher ahead of the ECB at 8.15am ET, where the expectation is for rates to be held steady ahead of a potential Sept cut. China-exposed stocks are leading alongside macro recovery while AI/Semis remain under pressure despite positive TSMC earnings. Bond yields are higher 2-3bps with the belly underperforming; European bond yields are higher as many curves bear flatten. After tumbling to a 2-month low thanks to a surge in the yen driven by a reversal in the carry trade, the dollar was slightly higher as President Joe Biden faced intensified calls to bow out of the 2024 race. Commodity weakness continues with pockets of strength in precious metals and natgas (WTI is flat). Today’s macro data is focused on jobless claims and 3x Fed speakers.
In pre-market trading, US tech stocks were set to gain after Wednesday’s sharp selloff in the sector as a positive earnings update from Taiwan Semiconductor – the chipmaker for Apple and Nvidia – somewhat restored sentiment. Airline stocks lost ground after the earnings outlook for United Airlines fell short of estimates. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
Beyond Meat shares drop 12% after a Wall Street Journal report that the firm has engaged with a group of bondholders to start talks about a balance-sheet restructuring.
Chuy’s Holdings surges 47% after Darden Restaurants agreed to purchase the Tex-Mex restaurant chain for $37.50 a share.
Leslie’s shares slumped 23% after the swimming pool supplies retailer slashed its full-year forecast and announced preliminary third-quarter results that missed estimates. Stifel cut the company to sell from hold and lowered its price target on the stock to a Street low, noting the enhanced risk around the company’s elevated leverage profile.
Lilium shares rose 8.1% after Saudia Group signed a binding agreement for 50 jets with options for the purchase of 50 more from the eVTOL company.
United Airlines (UAL US) shares rise 0.1%, erasing a drop of as much as 1.4%. The carrier’s adjusted earnings per share forecast for the third quarter missed consensus estimates. TD Cowen says the guidance was a “curve ball” but expects management to capture market share.
VF Corp shares rise 1.5% after the apparel and footwear company was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi, which said the sale of the Supreme brand has removed an overhang from the stock.
Major markets are higher as markets prepare for the ECB at 8.15am ET, where the expectation is for rates to be held steady ahead of a potential Sept cut. Regional bond yields are higher as many curves bear flatten. China-exposed stocks are leading alongside macro recovery while AI/Semis remain under pressure despite positive TSM earnings. Value is leading, Cyclicals are lagging. UKX +0.9%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.4%, DAX +0.2%.
One day after the worst rout for the Nasdaq since 2022, analysts said a relatively robust earnings season and expectations of interest-rate cuts from the Fed and other central banks are also supporting sentiment. Later in the day, streaming services giant Netflix will be the first major US tech company to report results — it’s expected to show continued growth in global subscriber numbers. Meanwhile, concerns around tech haven’t fully dissipated, and Amsterdam-listed chip giant ASML – among companies that could be hit by any tougher US measures – extended Wednesday’s 11% rout. That, alongside the prospect of trade tariffs under a potential Donald Trump presidency, continue to weigh on Europe’s Stoxx 600 index.
“I’m not surprised people are trying to buy the dip,” said Michael Brown, senior strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The fundamental bull case remains strong for equities — earnings and economic growth look resilient and the Fed should start cutting rates from September.”
Later in the day, a string of Fed rate-setters are due to speak, including San Francisco Fed chief Mary Daly and Governor Michelle Bowman. Initial jobless claims figures due later Thursday will give investors the latest snapshot of the state of the economy.
European stocks rose with the Stoxx 600 up 0.3% led by the tech sector as TSMC lifted its revenue outlook for 2024. Major markets were higher as markets prepare for the ECB at 8.15am ET, where the expectation is for rates to be held steady ahead of a potential Sept cut. Regional bond yields are higher as many curves bear flatten. China-exposed stocks are leading alongside macro recovery while AI/Semis remain under pressure despite positive TSM earnings. Value is leading, Cyclicals are lagging. UKX +0.9%, SX5E +0.2%, SXXP +0.4%, DAX +0.2%. On the earnings front, Volvo AB rose after it reported better-than-expected profits for the second quarter, though the update from telecom firm Nokia Oyj disappointed, knocking the stock as much as 10% lower. Here are the most notable European movers:
Volvo Car gains as much as 8.9% in early trading after the Swedish automaker reported operating income for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate, outweighing the company’s reduction in its growth outlook for the year.
MIPS rises as much as 30% after reporting second-quarter figures that beat the average estimates.
Hemnet surges as much as 18%, the most since January to take it to a record high, after the Swedish real estate listings platform reported very strong second-quarter earnings, boosted by strong uptake of the company’s premium listings offerings.
Schroders shares rise as much as 6.2%, the most since November 2022, after Morgan Stanley upgraded the UK asset manager to overweight from equalweight, citing analysis of fund flows.
Publicis shares jump as much as 8.5% after the advertising agency boosted FY organic sales growth guidance, as the company flagged market-share gains and double-digit growth in China. Peer WPP also rises.
Getinge shares jump as much as 13%, the most since March 2020, after the Swedish medical technology firm reported 2Q results that were better than market expectations.
Sulzer rises as much as 5.3% to a new high after upgrading full-year guidance on orders and sales.
ABB shares fall as much as 7.1% after the Swiss industrial giant reported orders below estimates as weaker demand for its automation products offset gains in its power-grid business.
European semiconductor stocks are trading lower on Thursday, extending this week’s rout in the technology sector as a positive update from TSMC failed to lift sentiment, with markets still worrying over rising geopolitical risks that threaten the industry.
Novartis shares drop as much as 3.1% after the drugmaker raised its profit forecast for the second time this year — a move that had been expected by some analysts.
Husqvarna falls as much as 14%, the most in over four years, as the Swedish outdoor maintenance products firm reported second-quarter earnings that missed estimates, with DNB markets seeing consensus downgrades ahead.
Telenor drops as much as 3.4%, the most in more than two months, after the Norwegian telecom operator delivers its second-quarter results.
EQT slides as much as 8.2% after the Swedish private equity group’s second-quarter earnings missed Ebitda expectations, reflecting smaller-than-expected fee income as the company remains in a holding pattern waiting for exit activity to pick up.
Earlier, Asia stocks slumped echoing the tech rout stateside. Nikkei 225 underperformed amid recent currency strength and as large tech stocks suffered similar fates to their US counterparts amid the threat of tighter restrictions to supply China, while Japanese trade data showed exports and imports missed estimates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed and ultimately rangebound with sentiment sapped by ongoing protectionist concerns. Australia’s ASX 200 was pressured by weakness in tech and telecoms but with downside cushioned after mixed jobs data which showed higher-than-expected employment change.
In FX, the dollar index traded near the lowest level in two months, while the yen was slightly weaker at around 156.32 per dollar, while the pound wasn’t able to stay above $1.30. The euro weakened slightly ahead of a European Central Bank meeting that’s expected to signal the next rate cut will come in September.
In rates, treasuries are cheaper by 2bp-3bp, following similar move in bunds ahead of European Central Bank policy decision at 8:15am New York time. While no change is expected, President Lagarde in subsequent press conference may signal another rate cut is likely in September. US session includes weekly jobless claims, 10-year TIPS auction and several Fed speakers. Treasury 10-year yields around 4.185% are cheaper by 2.5bp on the day, broadly in line with bunds; curve spreads are within a basis point of Wednesday’s close. French bonds hold losses while auctions saw decent demand.
In commodities, WTI pares gains to around $82.90. Spot gold rises roughly $7 to near $2,466/oz. Most base metals fall.
US economic data slate includes initial jobless claims, July Philadelphia Fed business outlook (8:30am), June leading index (10am) and May TIC flows (4pm). Fed members scheduled to speak include Goolsbee (10am), Logan (1:45pm), Daly (6:05pm) and Bowman (7:45pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,654.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 516.13
MXAP down 0.9% to 185.95
MXAPJ down 0.4% to 578.73
Nikkei down 2.4% to 40,126.35
Topix down 1.6% to 2,868.63
Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 17,778.41
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,977.13
Sensex up 0.8% to 81,380.43
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.3% to 8,036.52
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,824.35
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.44%
Euro little changed at $1.0935
Brent Futures up 0.2% to $85.29/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,469.51
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.79
Top Overnight News
US President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, while he received his first dose of Paxlovid: White House.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer told President Biden in a meeting on Saturday it would be better for the country if he ended his re-election bid: ABC News.
Former House Speaker Pelosi privately told President Biden in a recent conversation that polling showed Biden cannot beat Trump and that he could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House: CNN.
CNN quoted a senior adviser stating that US President Biden is now more receptive to calls for him to withdraw, while he reportedly asked advisers if they think VP Harris can win the election: CNN
TSMC raised its projections for full-year revenue growth after results beat estimates, as it continued to ride the global wave of spending on AI. Shares rose premarket. BBG
China’s Communist Party vowed to deepen supply-side reform and implement measures to resolve debt risks in property and local government. It also plans to attract foreign investment. More details are expected in coming days. BBG
The ECB looks set to keep rates on hold today, but investors will be watching Christine Lagarde for hints at an expected reduction in September. Most analysts predict two more 25-bp rate cuts this year. BBG
Germany plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year, despite concerns that U.S. support for Kyiv could potentially diminish if Republican candidate Donald Trump returns to the White House. German aid to Ukraine will be cut to 4 billion euros ($4.35 billion) in 2025 from around 8 billion euros in 2024, according to a draft of the 2025 budget seen by Reuters. RTRS
JD Vance railed against Wall Street and corporate America on Wednesday night, putting economic populism at the center of the Republican party’s campaign to return Donald Trump to the White House. FT
Biden has become “more receptive” in recent days to arguments about why he should exit the race as momentum for a change builds within the party (Schumer and Jefferies apparently both told Biden privately he should consider departing the race, and they intervened to prevent an accelerated nomination process to buy more time for a potential adjustment). NYT
Biden in an interview said he would consider dropping out if a “medical condition” emerged, a comment that came before news of a positive COVID test (which forced the president to cancel some campaign events). WaPo
United Air reported upside on Q2 EPS (4.14 vs. the Street 3.93), but RASM was soft (down 2.4%) and the Q3 guidance falls short of expectations (they see EPS of 2.75-3.25 vs. the Street 3.38). UAL mgmt. spoke positively on the industry capacity outlook in its Q2 earnings release (“sees mid-August as inflection point when industry-wide oversupply eases and United is best positioned to benefit”). RTRS
Leslie’s issued a downside preannouncement for FQ3/June, w/EPS forecast to come in at 32-33c (vs. the Street 42c). In light of the June Q miss, mgmt. is cutting its guidance for the year (F24 EPS is seen at just 3-9c vs. the Street 28c). RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks followed suit to the tech rout stateside owing to recent concerns of China tech curbs and tariff fears. ASX 200 was pressured by weakness in tech and telecoms but with downside cushioned after mixed jobs data which showed higher-than-expected employment change. Nikkei 225 underperformed amid recent currency strength and as large tech stocks suffered similar fates to their US counterparts amid the threat of tighter restrictions to supply China, while Japanese trade data showed exports and imports missed estimates. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed and ultimately rangebound with sentiment sapped by ongoing protectionist concerns.
Top Asian News
Chinese President Xi will unveil his long-term vision for China’s economy with the CPC set to publish a document on Thursday offering the first glimpse of what some 400 officials discussed during the Third Plenum, according to Bloomberg. It was later reported that China’s Communist Party Central Committee will hold a news conference on Friday to brief the media on the Third Plenum.
BoJ’s Osaka Manager says they wish to maintain an accommodative monetary environment as much as is possible, via JiJi; believe the next monetary policy meeting is extremely important.
Japanese Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says no comment on FX moves; specifics of monetary policy is up to BoJ, BoJ policy not aimed at guiding forex; closely monitoring forex market. Expects BoJ to conduct appropriate policy to sustainably, stably hit price target, working closely with the government.
China Third Plenum Communique: Adopts resolution on further deepening reform comprehensively
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.1%) opened on a firmer footing, but at the cash open, contracts quickly dipped off best levels; weakness which was led by a renewed sell-off in the Tech sector. European sectors hold a slight positive bias; Autos take the top spot, lifted by post-earning strength in Volvo Car AB (+7.2%). Energy is also towards the top of the pile, given the upside in the crude complex; potentially also weighing on the Travel & Leisure sector, which underperforms. US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.6%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with clear outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, catching a bid following strong TSMC earnings; industry peers such as Nvidia (+2.5%), Micron (+1.7%) and AMD (+2%) all gain.
Top European News
Sulzer Gains After Upgrading Full-Year Sales and Orders Guidance
New UK Labor Force Survey Delayed to 2025 Amid Fresh Data Issues
Schroders Rises as Morgan Stanley Upgrades on Flows; Cuts DWS
ION Set to Close $1.5 Billion Deal for Italy’s Prelios This Week
European Airlines, Hotels Fall as United’s Outlook Misses
EU’s Von der Leyen Courts Greens in Bid for Second Term
FX
DXY is a touch firmer with an initial attempt at recouping recently lost ground eventually running out of steam. 103.85 is the peak for today but is a far cry from yesterday’s 104.29 best.
EUR is steady vs. peers in the run up to today’s ECB release which is largely expected to be a non-event. EUR/USD is currently lingering just below yesterday’s multi-month peak at 1.0948.
GBP was relatively unreactive to what was a relatively in-line UK jobs report which saw the unemployment hold steady and wage growth recede, albeit remain at elevated levels. Nonetheless, Cable has returned to a 1.29 handle after topping out yesterday at 1.3045.
JPY is slightly steadier trade for the pair after yesterday’s sharp sell-off. As it stands, the pair has bounced around a point of its overnight base at 155.38, and currently holds around 156.40.
AUD the marginal best performer across G10 FX following better-than-expected Australian jobs growth, albeit this was accompanied by an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate.
Fixed Income
USTs are slightly lower, holding under 111-10 and as such shy of yesterday’s 111-15 best while the overnight high of 111-12+ stalled on approach to Tuesday’s 111-13+ peak. Busy US docket ahead, IJC, Philly Fed and leading index and Fed speak from Daly, Logan and Bowman.
Bunds are marginally softer and nearing yesterday’s 132.25 base which resides just beneath the low-end of today’s 132.29-58 parameters. Region is focused on the upcoming ECB, though no policy change is expected now. Modest and fleeting pressure was seen following the Spanish auction given the robust French outing thereafter which served to bring OATs back above 125.00.
Once again, Gilts had no real reaction to the morning’s UK data points. The labour series came in almost entirely in-line with expectations, pertinently showing an as-expected easing in the wage rate, and only had a slight dovish impact on BoE pricing. Currently pivoting the 98.57 opening level which is at the bottom-end of a very narrow 11 tick parameter that is entirely within Wednesday’s slim 98.31-66 band.
France sells EUR 11.49bln vs exp. EUR 9.5-11.5bln 1.00% 2027, 2.50% 2027, 2.75% 2030, 2.00% 2032 OAT.
Commodities
Crude spent much of the morning on the front foot, though in recent trade, the crude complex has slipped off best levels, in tandem with today’s strength in the Dollar; Brent Sept currently trading around USD 84.90/bbl.
Firmer trade across precious metals this morning despite a somewhat resilient DXY, but with broader European sentiment tilting lower, particularly in the stock market.
Mixed trade across base metals amid a lack of drivers this morning, and with the China Third Plenum Communique offering little in terms of explicit stimulus commentary.
Russian President Putin held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS, while they noted the importance of cooperation within OPEC+ to ensure energy market stability and both highly appreciate friendly relations between their countries, according to the Kremlin.
Geopolitics
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Moscow does not exclude deployment of missiles with nuclear warheads in response to deployment of US missiles in Germany, according to Interfax
US Event Calendar
08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 229,000, prior 222,000
July Continuing Claims, est. 1.86m, prior 1.85m
08:30: July Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 2.9, prior 1.3
10:00: June Leading Index, est. -0.3%, prior -0.5%
16:00: May Total Net TIC Flows, prior $66.2b
Central Banks
10:00: Fed’s Goolsbee on Yahoo Finance
13:45: Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks
18:05: Fed’s Daly Participates in Fireside Chat
19:45: Fed’s Bowman Gives Keynote Address
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
2B EUROPE OPENING/TRADING
Strong TSMC results helps to lift the NQ, USD firmer as attention turns to the ECB and US data – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 06:13 AM
European equities are choppy, Tech is lower in Europe and fails to benefit from strong TSMC earnings & guidance, but has helped to lift the NQ
Dollar is firmer, AUD benefits on the region’s jobs data, GBP back below 1.30 post-wages
Bonds are pressured ahead of the ECB; Bunds saw two-way action around the French & Spanish auctions
Crude erases initial strength, XAU incrementally firmer and base metals are mixed
Looking ahead, US IJC, Philly Fed, ECB & SARB Policy Announcement, Comments from ECB President Lagarde, Fed’s Logan, Daly & Bowman, Earnings from Abbott Labs, Blackstone, & Netflix.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.1%) opened on a firmer footing, but at the cash open, contracts quickly dipped off best levels; weakness which was led by a renewed sell-off in the Tech sector.
European sectors hold a slight positive bias; Autos take the top spot, lifted by post-earning strength in Volvo Car AB (+7.2%). Energy is also towards the top of the pile, given the upside in the crude complex; potentially also weighing on the Travel & Leisure sector, which underperforms.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.6%, RTY -0.2%) are mixed, with clear outperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, catching a bid following strong TSMC earnings; industry peers such as Nvidia (+2.5%), Micron (+1.7%) and AMD (+2%) all gain.
DXY is a touch firmer with an initial attempt at recouping recently lost ground eventually running out of steam. 103.85 is the peak for today but is a far cry from yesterday’s 104.29 best.
EUR is steady vs. peers in the run up to today’s ECB release which is largely expected to be a non-event. EUR/USD is currently lingering just below yesterday’s multi-month peak at 1.0948.
GBP was relatively unreactive to what was a relatively in-line UK jobs report which saw the unemployment hold steady and wage growth recede, albeit remain at elevated levels. Nonetheless, Cable has returned to a 1.29 handle after topping out yesterday at 1.3045.
JPY is slightly steadier trade for the pair after yesterday’s sharp sell-off. As it stands, the pair has bounced around a point of its overnight base at 155.38, and currently holds around 156.40.
AUD the marginal best performer across G10 FX following better-than-expected Australian jobs growth, albeit this was accompanied by an unexpected uptick in the unemployment rate.
USTs are slightly lower, holding under 111-10 and as such shy of yesterday’s 111-15 best while the overnight high of 111-12+ stalled on approach to Tuesday’s 111-13+ peak. Busy US docket ahead, IJC, Philly Fed and leading index and Fed speak from Daly, Logan and Bowman.
Bunds are marginally softer and nearing yesterday’s 132.25 base which resides just beneath the low-end of today’s 132.29-58 parameters. Region is focused on the upcoming ECB, though no policy change is expected now. Modest and fleeting pressure was seen following the Spanish auction given the robust French outing thereafter which served to bring OATs back above 125.00.
Once again, Gilts had no real reaction to the morning’s UK data points. The labour series came in almost entirely in-line with expectations, pertinently showing an as-expected easing in the wage rate, and only had a slight dovish impact on BoE pricing. Currently pivoting the 98.57 opening level which is at the bottom-end of a very narrow 11 tick parameter that is entirely within Wednesday’s slim 98.31-66 band.
Crude spent much of the morning on the front foot, though in recent trade, the crude complex has slipped off best levels, in tandem with today’s strength in the Dollar; Brent Sept currently trading around USD 84.90/bbl.
Firmer trade across precious metals this morning despite a somewhat resilient DXY, but with broader European sentiment tilting lower, particularly in the stock market.
Mixed trade across base metals amid a lack of drivers this morning, and with the China Third Plenum Communique offering little in terms of explicit stimulus commentary.
Russian President Putin held a phone call with Saudi Crown Prince MBS, while they noted the importance of cooperation within OPEC+ to ensure energy market stability and both highly appreciate friendly relations between their countries, according to the Kremlin.
UK Avg Wk Earnings 3M YY (May) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 5.9%); Avg Earnings (Ex-Bonus) 5.7% vs. Exp. 5.7% (Prev. 6.0%)
UK ILO Unemployment Rate (May) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.4% (Prev. 4.4%); Employment Change 19k vs. Exp. 18k (Prev. -140k)
UK HMRC Payrolls Change (Jun) 16k (Prev. -3k, Rev. 54k)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Biden tested positive for COVID-19 and is experiencing mild symptoms, while he received his first dose of Paxlovid, according to the White House.
US Senate Majority Leader Schumer told President Biden in a meeting on Saturday it would be better for the country if he ended his re-election bid, according to ABC News.
Former House Speaker Pelosi privately told President Biden in a recent conversation that polling showed Biden cannot beat Trump and that he could destroy Democrats’ chances of winning the House, according to CNN.
CNN quoted a senior adviser stating that US President Biden is now more receptive to calls for him to withdraw, while he reportedly asked advisers if they think VP Harris can win the election, according to Al Arabiya and Al Jazeera.
GEOPOLITICS
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister says Moscow does not exclude deployment of missiles with nuclear warheads in response to deployment of US missiles in Germany, according to Interfax
CRYPTO
Bitcoin holds just beneath USD 65k, whilst Ethereum continues to climb, but yet to breach USD 3.5k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks followed suit to the tech rout stateside owing to recent concerns of China tech curbs and tariff fears.
ASX 200 was pressured by weakness in tech and telecoms but with downside cushioned after mixed jobs data which showed higher-than-expected employment change.
Nikkei 225 underperformed amid recent currency strength and as large tech stocks suffered similar fates to their US counterparts amid the threat of tighter restrictions to supply China, while Japanese trade data showed exports and imports missed estimates.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were mixed and ultimately rangebound with sentiment sapped by ongoing protectionist concerns.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Chinese President Xi will unveil his long-term vision for China’s economy with the CPC set to publish a document on Thursday offering the first glimpse of what some 400 officials discussed during the Third Plenum, according to Bloomberg. It was later reported that China’s Communist Party Central Committee will hold a news conference on Friday to brief the media on the Third Plenum.
BoJ’s Osaka Manager says they wish to maintain an accommodative monetary environment as much as is possible, via JiJi; believe the next monetary policy meeting is extremely important.
Japanese Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says no comment on FX moves; specifics of monetary policy is up to BoJ, BoJ policy not aimed at guiding forex; closely monitoring forex market. Expects BoJ to conduct appropriate policy to sustainably, stably hit price target, working closely with the government.
China Third Plenum Communique: Adopts resolution on further deepening reform comprehensively. Click for full details
Latest BoJ data does not immediately show evidence of intervention on July 17th, according to Reuters
DATA RECAP
Japanese Trade Balance Total Yen (Jun) 224.0B vs. Exp. -240.0B (Prev. -1221.3B, Rev. -1220.1B)
Japanese Exports YY (Jun) 5.4% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 13.5%); Imports 3.2% vs. Exp. 9.3% (Prev. 9.5%)
Australian Employment (Jun) 50.2k vs. Exp. 20.0k (Prev. 39.7k); Unemployment Rate 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.0%)
Australian Participation Rate (Jun) 66.9% vs. Exp. 66.8% (Prev. 66.8%)
2e) JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ECB
ECB holds rates steady
(zerohedge)
Market Snoozes As ECB Holds Rates Unchanged As Expected: “Not Pre-Committing To Particular Rate-Path”
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 08:24 AM
As fully expected, The ECB decided to hold rates unchanged and gave a pretty clear statement to those looking for some strong guidance:
Here’s what it says:
“The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission.
The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.”
There’s a pretty balanced assessment on inflation, seemingly downplaying the pickup in inflation gauges in May.
On the one hand, most measures of underlying inflation “were either stable or edged down in June,” the ECB says.
On the other hand, “domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.”
wo important observations in the first part of the
‘s statement (a clear signal): – sticky core inflation in May was driven by “one-off factors” while “most measures were either stable or edged down in June” – impact of high wage growth “buffered by profits” as expected
The central bank also mentioned reducing its PEPP portfolio by the second half of next year.
The euro was little changed against the dollar and yield curves remained largely steady after the decision… a snoozer…
All eyes and ears now shift to the press conference for hints that the ECB will cut again in September, when the ECB will also issue new staff projections for growth and inflation.
As we laid out earlier, here are the scenarios if Lagarde drops any hints…
Watch Lagarde’s press conference live here (due to start at 0845ET)
Read the full statement below:
Monetary policy decisions
The Governing Council today decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information broadly supports the Governing Council’s previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. While some measures of underlying inflation ticked up in May owing to one-off factors, most measures were either stable or edged down in June. In line with expectations, the inflationary impact of high wage growth has been buffered by profits. Monetary policy is keeping financing conditions restrictive. At the same time, domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above the target well into next year.
The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction. In particular, its interest rate decisions will be based on its assessment of the inflation outlook in light of the incoming economic and financial data, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
Key ECB interest rates
The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.
Asset purchase programme (APP) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
The APP portfolio is declining at a measured and predictable pace, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.
The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the PEPP, reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average. The Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
The Governing Council will continue applying flexibility in reinvesting redemptions coming due in the PEPP portfolio, with a view to countering risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism related to the pandemic.
Refinancing operations
As banks are repaying the amounts borrowed under the targeted longer-term refinancing operations, the Governing Council will regularly assess how targeted lending operations and their ongoing repayment are contributing to its monetary policy stance.
***
The Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments within its mandate to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% target over the medium term and to preserve the smooth functioning of monetary policy transmission. Moreover, the Transmission Protection Instrument is available to counter unwarranted, disorderly market dynamics that pose a serious threat to the transmission of monetary policy across all euro area countries, thus allowing the Governing Council to more effectively deliver on its price stability mandate.
HUNGARY/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
The EU are crazy
(zerohedge)
MEPs Demand Total Boycott Of EU Presidency, Suspension Of Hungary’s Voting Rights Over Orbán’s “Peace Mission”
Following Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s trips to Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing, the EU has launched a partial boycott of meetings organized by the rotating presidency, while 63 MEPs are now calling for Hungary’s EU voting rights to be entirely suspended.
Under the boycott, the EU will only send civil servants, not commissioners, to meetings chaired by Hungary.
Not every European leader is on board with these decisions. For example, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer says boycotting Hungary is not a good solution.
ROBERT FICO: “I want to express my admiration for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for not hesitating to go to both Kyiv and Moscow. If my health allowed, I would have loved to join him. There are never enough peace talks and peace initiatives. I repeat, never enough.”
·
1,742 Views
🇸🇰ROBERT FICO:
"I want to express my admiration for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán for not hesitating to go to both Kyiv and Moscow.
If my health allowed, I would have loved to join him. There are never enough peace talks and peace initiatives. I repeat, never enough." pic.twitter.com/38LYTb6WgB
Orbán’s peace mission included talks in Kyiv, Moscow and Beijing in the space of a few days. This followed the announcement that the EU commissioners would boycott the Hungarian presidency and even organize their own meeting in Brussels in August. Most EU leaders condemned Viktor Orbán’s peace mission, saying that as EU president-in-office he had no mandate to partake in such a mission.
Commenting on the debate, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said that Viktor Orbán had broken a taboo, which should be discussed, but that in response to this, another taboo should not be broken, so there was no need to boycott the Hungarian EU presidency.
The Austrian chancellor said that the worst solution is for the parties within the European Union not to talk to each other, which is why ministers from the Austrian People’s Party will continue to attend the EU Council presidency meetings.
“The European Commission and the Council Presidency should resolve conflicts through discussions, not by calling for a boycott. Dialogue is the most important precondition for progress and common solutions at all political levels,” the chancellor stated.
The Netherlands will decide on a case-by-case basis whether to participate in the events of the Hungarian EU presidency, but rejects a formal boycott, Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof told the Telegraaf newspaper on Tuesday.
The Dutch prime minister, whose right-wing cabinet took office on July 2, said that he believed Orbán had made it clear that these meetings were bilateral and that he did not represent the EU.
“On a bilateral basis, each country can do what it wants,” he said. Whether the Netherlands will miss meetings organized by the Hungarian EU presidency will be considered together with the other EU member states on a case-by-case basis.
Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán will meet at the former U.S. president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Thursday. The Hungarian PM recently conducted his “peace mission” with visits to Ukraine, Russia, and China ahead of this week’s NATO meeting in Washington D.C.
·
1,055 View
NEW: 🇭🇺🇺🇸 Donald Trump and Viktor Orbán will meet at the former U.S. president’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida on Thursday.
The Hungarian PM recently conducted his “peace mission” with visits to Ukraine, Russia, and China ahead of this week’s NATO meeting in Washington D.C. pic.twitter.com/f8Vflx1kdY
Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden recently met his Dutch counterpart and in a press statement strongly opposed the boycott of meetings of the Hungarian EU Presidency.
“In a democracy, people talk to each other,” said the Grand Duchy’s Christian Democrat head of government. He said that “Luxembourg’s positions on various issues can be better conveyed if it is represented at the meetings and communicates clearly with the Hungarians about its values.”
Hamas in disarray: IDF realizes three major achievements in Gaza – analysis
The IDF has eliminated over 14,000 Hamas terrorists since the war began, intensifying operations to dismantle Hamas’s military infrastructure and command capabilities across Gaza.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, AVI ASHKENAZIJULY 17, 2024 13:01Updated: JULY 17, 2024 16:05
Israeli tanks operate next to destroyed buildings during a ground operation in the southern Gaza Strip, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, July 3, 2024.(photo credit: Ohad Zwigenberg/Pool via REUTERS)
On Tuesday, IDF sources said that the number remained at 14,000, but what was strange about the number was that the IDF said around 1,000 Hamas fighters had been killed in the last two weeks of fighting.
If true, that would mean that less than 13,000 Hamas fighters had been killed as of early July and possibly another 1,000 or so less back in early May.
IDF increases military pressure across Gaza
The IDF states that several alternatives for maintaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor are being discussed privately. During the week, the IDF changed the deployment of operating forces in Gaza. Division 99, which had secured the Nitzarim Corridor in the center of the Strip, was relieved by Division 252, which replaced them in the area.
The IDF is increasing pressure on Hamas on the three main fronts in the depths of the territory: Rafah, the center, and the north of the Gaza Strip. Through the Gaza Division, the IDF is also deepening its comprehensive management and strategic control of the operational area.
The goal is to create an exposed area without infrastructure and buildings along the entire Gaza Strip at a depth of one kilometer from the border fence with Israel, which will be off-limits to Gazans. The IDF notes a series of achievements thus far.
View of the Philadelphi Corridor between the southern Gaza Strip and Egypt, on July 15, 2024. (credit: Oren Cohen/Flash90)
The first achievement – the operation in Rafah:
The IDF is dissatisfied with clearing an 800-meter strip north along the entire Philadelphi Corridor but has deepened its hold into the city, exposing underground tunnel and command systems. In this area, the IDF identified production facilities for weapons and missiles.
The IDF destroyed dozens of kilometers of tunnels, most were operational, and crossed the border into Egypt. Some tunnels were large enough to allow vehicles to travel through them.
View of an UNRWA health center that was destroyed during an Israeli military opration in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, on July 15, 2024. (credit: Oren Cohen/Flash90)
Underground tunnel network
All of the tunnels in Gaza, particularly in Rafah, operate as a single system, all connecting into a comprehensive underground network. Each section has a different operational or logistical purpose.
For example, there are sections of defensive tunnels, command tunnel complexes, intelligence tunnel complexes, weapon manufacturing tunnels, storage facilities, and attack tunnels that approach the border with Israel or cross into Egypt. Simultaneously, the IDF is working to destroy hundreds of buildings in Rafah that were used for terrorist infrastructure and operations.
The second achievement – targeting Hamas’s infrastructure:
The IDF identifies severe morale damage within Hamas operatives, who are struggling to fight. Some are emerging from the tunnels and trying to gather within shelter complexes, which the IDF continues to strike, including today in Nuseirat. In the past week, hundreds of terrorists have been eliminated in these missions.
In an operation by Division 99 and Division 98 in Shejaia and the Rimal neighborhood in Gaza City, the IDF discovered UNRWA’s “Dalal” compound. This compound included a school building, a clinic, and a food warehouse supplied by humanitarian convoys.
In reality, Hamas had turned the site into a large command center with hundreds of terrorists inside. The IDF’s 7th Armored Brigade took control of the site and killed about 150 terrorists. At the site, they seized all of Hamas’s computer, communication, and intelligence equipment inside.
Multiple IDF sources projected continued confidence that Hamas military chief Mohammed Deif is dead.
The Post witnessed videos and photos of visual observation of the target house, nearby makeshift roof-covered areas, and trees both before the IDF struck the area and after.The explosion was of tremendous strength, and no survivors were seen exiting.
The remaining x-factors are the slight possibility that Deif managed to leave before the attack without surveillance noticing, though he had definitely been on location for some time, and the many times he had somehow rallied from severe injuries from prior IDF assassination attempts to emerge having survived.
Destruction of armed capabilities:
The volume of anti-tank missiles and rocket-propelled grenades had fallen to 134 from 652, though due to the larger initial volume of RPGs as opposed to the smaller number of rockets, this still left Hamas with a fairly large inventory of RPGs to conduct ambushes against IDF soldiers nearby.
Further, Hamas was down to 133 improvised explosives from a high point of 662, something which again has depleted long-term or strategic fighting but provides the capability to continue to sabotage nearby IDF soldiers for some time.
In the wider perspective, the IDF said that Hamas is down to between 1,000-1,500 rockets.
Pre-war, Hamas reportedly had around 15,000 rockets,
The IDF is still concerned that Hamas still has a small supply of long-range rockets that could strike Tel Aviv, and on July 1, the terror group showed it could still execute a complex operation in which it fired 20 rockets from the Khan Yunis area into Israeli Gaza border areas and communities.
But overall, the IDF said that Hamas has been reduced to a mode of survival as opposed to being able to do very much strategic or proactive attack plans.
END
ISRAEL/IUSA
Trump poll numbers shows US Jews put off by White House’s approach to Middle East – editorial
The political and ideological alignment between Trump and Israel’s right-wing factions further solidifies his appeal among these voters.
Republican candidate, former U.S. President Donald Trump, speaks as he attends a presidential debate with Democrat candidate, U.S. President Joe Biden, in Atlanta, Georgia, U.S., June 27, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/BRIAN SNYDER)
Former president Donald Trump has been enjoying an outpouring of support and positivity in the United States since his assassination attempt less than a week ago. He has also become a national hero, celebrating his strength at the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin. At the same time, while President Joe Biden is losing support among his party members, a similar shift in Israel has already occurred:
A survey published on Wednesday by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) found that most Jewish Israelis prefer Trump over Biden in the upcoming presidential election. The July 2024 Israeli Society Index revealed that 51% of Jewish Israelis favored Trump, compared to 35% who supported Biden and 14% who were undecided.
This preference was reflected in the broader context of Israeli opinions on the current US administration’s support for Israel. The survey indicated that a significant portion of Israelis believed Biden’s support for Israel had waned since the onset of the ongoing conflict. While 34% of Jewish Israelis acknowledged that Biden strongly supported Israel at the beginning of the war and continued to do so, there was a pervasive sentiment that his support had diminished.
Among voters of the coalition parties, Trump’s support was overwhelmingly strong. A staggering 82% of Likud voters, 94% of Shas voters, and 87% of Religious-Zionist voters expressed their preference for the former president. In contrast, centrist and left-leaning Israelis presented a more balanced view, with many still favoring Biden.
This divide in preference underscored broader concerns about Israel’s security and foreign policy. The JPPI survey also revealed profound disillusionment with Israel’s leadership, with only 26% expressing confidence in the government and a mere 27% in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This declining trust in domestic leadership likely influenced Israelis to look outward, favoring a US leader perceived as more supportive of Israeli interests.
Attempted assassination of Donald Trump (credit: documentation on social networks according to Article 27 A of the Copyright Law)
Trump’s appeal among Israelis can be attributed to several factors. His administration was perceived as highly supportive of Israel, with significant actions such as the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital and the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab countries.
Israeli’s needs from the next US President
Moreover, the ongoing conflict and heightened security concerns have made the Israeli public more sensitive to international support. With dwindling trust in their leadership, Israelis may prioritize a US president who they believe would unequivocally back Israel in times of crisis.
The political and ideological alignment between Trump and Israel’s right-wing factions further solidifies his appeal among these voters. The preference for Trump suggests a broader desire for strong, clear, and supportive international partnerships as Israel navigates its internal and external challenges.
Jerusalem Post senior contributing editor and analyst Herb Keinon pointed out that a Midgam poll in mid-December found that 41% of 503 Jewish Israeli respondents preferred Biden when asked who they wanted to win the next US election, while only 26% favored Trump. A JPPI poll taken in the second week of the war found that 56% of Israeli Jews felt that Biden was better for Israel than Trump, with only 22% expressing the opposite view.
These findings represent a phenomenal shift in Israeli public opinion toward Biden and away from Trump. Keinon highlighted that before the 2020 US elections, an Israel Democracy Institute Poll found that 70% of Israeli Jews favored Trump, with only 13% supporting Biden. Even as recently as July 2023, a Channel 12 poll indicated that 44% of Israelis preferred Trump for the 2025 presidency, compared to 30% for Biden.
The current numbers reveal a starker preference for Trump, indicative of several broader trends. Many Israelis see Trump as a more reliable ally in times of conflict. His strong rhetoric and actions during his presidency left a lasting impression that aligns with the sentiments of many Israelis who prioritize security and decisive leadership.
Moreover, this shift reflects growing disenchantment with the current US administration’s approach to the Middle East. Internally, as trust in our leaders wanes, Israelis, especially those on the political right, may be projecting their hopes for strong leadership onto Trump. Finally, the million dollar question is actually how American Jews will vote, since historically, about 70% vote every year for the Democratic candidate.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
IDF, Shin Bet eliminate PIJ senior official in Gaza
Hezbollah claimed a new round of attacks on Israel on Tuesday and Wednesday, as the Iranian-backed Lebanese terrorist group has also been increasing some of its threatening rhetoric lately.
For instance, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has threatened to increase the range of attacks inside Israel in what he claims is a response to attacks by Israel.
According to the Iranian state media IRNA, “Hezbollah announced on Tuesday night that it had targeted the towns of Kfar Hoshen, Or Haganuz, Bar Yohai, Kabri, and Meron with dozens of Katyusha rockets in response to the Israeli regime’s airstrike on southern Lebanon, which resulted in the martyrdom of three civilians.” Hezbollah’s Al-Manar reported the same details.
Hezbollah launched up to 150 rockets in these attacks over a period of 24 hours, which is an increase in attacks. The areas targeted included Kiryat Shmona and Mount Meron on Tuesday and also areas near Nahariya on Wednesday.
Warning against offensive in Lebanon
Nasrallah also gave a speech warning Israel against an offensive in Lebanon. He said Israel would not emerge well from a war in Lebanon and its armored units would be destroyed. He also praised the Houthis in Yemen and the Palestinians. He alluded to his view that Israel is now suffering defeats on multiple fronts and that this generation in the region will see Israel defeated.
The context of the attacks comes amid Iranian-backed escalation on several fronts. The Houthis in Yemen struck a ship with an unmanned surface vessel. Iraqi militias also attempted to attack the Asad base in Iraq where US forces are present. The Iraqi group used two drones in the attack.
Smoke rises during an exchange of fire between the IDF and terrorists from the Hezbollah organization on the border between Israel and Lebanon, January 7, 2024. (credit: Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
The threats come as the head of US Central Command Gen. Michael Kurilla is in the region and visited Jordan, Syria, and Israel. On July 15, US Central Command said, “In the past 24 hours, US Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed five Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV), three over the Red Sea and two over Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.”
Overall it is possible the escalation in the region relates to Kurilla’s visit and also a sense among Iranian proxies that they need to increase attacks as Israel continues to have success in Gaza.
end
ISRAEL/SYRIA
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/RED SEA
END
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
END
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
Epic and to the point
ROBERT H
“Americans and many Europeans have no idea at all that the US Government has taken actions so grave, that the American heartland is now being openly discussed as a future war zone. As for Europe it is expendable known to all Neocons and darn few Europeans. Why Europeans want to die on a Neocon Altar is unknown. Nuland’s said it best when she “fuck the EU”! The message was clear.
How these particular remarks arose in the UN was after White House National Security Council Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, said that “Washington does not want a war with Russia as it would affect the European continent.” Really? No one believes this balderdash.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov mentioned this remark and then said (verbatim) “In Washington, they are convinced that a new global war will affect not the US, but their European allies. If this analysis forms the basis of the Biden administration’s strategy, it is a very dangerous misconception, and Europeans should realize what a suicidal role has been assigned to them.”
Any resolution of the European crisis must include concrete steps to eliminate the threats to Russia that emanate from the West, the Lavrov went on to say. He recalled that Moscow’s conditions for establishing lasting peace in Ukraine have already been outlined by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Putin has stated that Zelensky’s term has expired and his legitimacy cannot be restored by any means. Everyone knows this who reads; he is an illegitimate leader with no standing propped up by NATO. Even Ukrainians have figured this out which is why the majority want him gone and would vote him out if any election was held.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has clarified that Putin does not rule out negotiations with Ukraine, as there are other legitimate authorities there, like the Ukrainian Parliament, RADA.
For his part, Lavrov emphasized that Russia is ready to seek a balance of interests to resolve the current crisis in Ukraine, taking into account new geostrategic realities on the Eurasian continent. No Russia does not want war but if forced to serve it; it will do so. Because not to do this will mean surrender of the Russian people and country to the thumb of Neocons. Russia will die first!
The question is whether Neocons are truly ready to test their luck at death’s door?”
Reggae’s Fantan Mojah, 47, has heart attack; Brazilian cellist Antonio Meneses has glioblastoma; top Norwegian triathlete Heiko Sepp crippled by Pfizer; Mayor Abi Mills of Lancaster has breast cancer
Fantan Mojah hospitalized in Martinique with suspected heart attack
July 11, 2024
Reggae firebrand artist Fantan Mojah, 47, is currently hospitalized in Martinique after developing breathing problems and complaining that his “chest was tightening.” Another source revealed that Fantan Mojah had been experiencing medical problems over the past few months and that his heart was operating at “less than 100 percent efficiency.” He was among the top new Reggae acts of the mid-2000s when he was signed to Downsound Records.
The internationally cherished Brazilian cellist Antonio Meneses has let it be known that he is receiving palliative care for a glioblastoma multiforme tumour. Antonio, 66, is a former member of the Beaux Arts Trio with Menahem Pressler and Daniel Hope. In his own right he was a prominent concert soloist. He has published the following statement on social media: “Brazilian cellist Antonio Meneses, one of the leading musicians of his generation, has canceled his concert schedule and stepped down from his teaching positions. He was diagnosed in June with Glioblastoma Multiforme, an aggressive type of brain tumor. Meneses is currently receiving palliative care in Switzerland, where he lives with his family and friends, who have been an important source of comfort during this difficult time.”
Researcher’s note: In the last eight years, Meneses had an extremely busy schedule of concerts and classes all around the world, lasting through August 5th, 2024:
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UNITED KINGDOM
Radiohead’s Jonny Greenwood cancels tour after ’emergency hospital treatment’
July 12, 2024
Radiohead offshoot band The Smile is canceling its European tour due to a medical emergency. The group announced Friday that Jonny Greenwood [52, left], the lead guitarist and keyboardist for both bands, underwent emergency medical treatment for an infection this week. “A few days ago, Jonny became seriously ill from an infection that needed emergency hospital treatment, some of it in intensive care,” the band said in a statement on social media. “Mercifully he is now out of danger and will soon return home. We have been instructed by the medical team in charge of Jonny’s care to cancel all engagements until he has had time to make a full recovery,” the statement continued. “To that end, the Smile tour of Europe in August is canceled.”
‘60s rock legend, 79, ‘immediately retires’ from touring after suffering stroke
July 11, 2024
Rod Argent has been forced to retire from touring after suffering a stroke. The 79-year-old, who founded legendary rock band the Zombies, was recently hospitalized after falling ill. The keyboard player and vocalist’s management team have confirmed that he has been advised to sit out future performances on doctors’ orders, and will need ‘several months’ to rest and recover. ‘Rod had recently returned home from a triumphant Zombies tour of the UK, and spent a weekend in London with his beloved wife Cathy, celebrating his 79th birthday and their 52nd wedding anniversary, before the stroke occurred,’ the statement reads, via Variety. ‘He was hospitalized overnight, and released the next day. Doctors have advised that Rod will need several months of rest and recuperation.
‘Doctors found a tumour when I got my West End break’
July 9, 2024
A musical theatre actor who was diagnosed with a lung tumour the same day he got his big break in a show in London’s West End says he postponed surgery for three months so he could star in the production. Jarryd Nurden, 32, who stars in We Will Rock You, had what he thought was a “terrible flu” in December 2022 – but an X-ray revealed it was actually a 4cm (1.5in) mass on his lung, which he later learned was cancerous.
Chris Kamara says he is ‘doing great’ as he shares a health update after being diagnosed with apraxia and admits he has ‘stopped feeling sorry for himself’
July 8, 2024
Chris Kamara has shared an update on his health with his fans during an appearance on Monday’s episode of This Morning following his apraxia diagnosis. The former footballer, 65, has suffered with impaired mobility and speech due to the condition but now admits he ‘no longer feels sorry for himself’. He told hosts Ben Shephard and Cat Deeley when they asked how he was doing: ‘I’m doing great, I’ve got everything back apart from the speed in my voice. I’ve got the fluency, the brain when you want to talk, it’s not interrupted anymore, it’s fluent.”
Love Island’s Arabella Chi reveals she’s been diagnosed with PCOS after suffering a secret miscarriage and opens up on battle with acne, hair loss and agonising periods
July 8, 2024
Arabella Chi has revealed that she’s been diagnosed with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) as she opened up on suffering a secret miscarriage, cystic acne, hair loss and debilitating period pain. The Love Island star, 33, took to her Instagram on Friday in a candid video for her followers as she described her symptoms and admitted her self-esteem had suffered. She explained that she had been diagnosed with the condition two days prior, after her last period left her in such severe pain she thought she needed to call an ambulance. PCOS is a common condition that means the ovaries do not regularly release eggs, become enlarged, and can contain small follicle cysts. The ovaries also produces excess androgen, which can cause irregular periods, excess hair growth, acne and infertility. While she added that she had suffered a miscarriage in September last year, only a few months before she entered the Love Island All Stars villa in January.
Famous comedian, 63, starting new round of chemo but won’t let ongoing cancer battle ‘steal the joy of today’
June 28, 2024
Scottish stand-up comedian Janey Godley, 63, has insisted she’s not going to let another round of chemotherapy “steal the joy of today” in her ongoing fight against stage three ovarian cancer. Godley was initially diagnosed with ovarian cancer in November 2021 and given the “all clear” in the summer of 2022 after undergoing a full hysterectomy. Later that year, the inspirational jokester learned she had cancer recurrence, which was found in her abdomen. She began a new round of chemotherapy treatment, which she explained on social media will take place once a month for the next six months. Despite her health issues, Godley has expressed pure hope for the future and is still planning to get back on stage for her tour dates later this year.
Councillor Abi Mills said she was “doing well, keeping positive and looking forward to getting back to normal on the other side of this”. The mayor of Lancaster has announced she will reduce her public schedule after being diagnosed with breast cancer. Councillor Mills, who became the mayor in May, still plans to fulfil as many mayoral engagements as possible, but said that treatment for the disease will inevitably mean a reduction in those she is able to attend.
One of our foremost triathlon athletes seriously injured by the “vaccine”
July 11, 2024
“Is this the Soviet Union or Norway? I trusted the Norwegian system,” says Heiko Sepp (41) in a new documentary. He received NOK1,500 (USD $140) in compensation. Heiko was among our best in triathlon. After the second dose of Pfizer, he sits ruined on the couch. Health and economy are ruined. Today it’s raining, and Heiko spent an hour and a half getting out of bed. Where there was sport, now is pain. Where there was a job in a sports shop, there is now the dole. Where there was a good personal economy, there are now debt collection calls. Heiko barely got help from the public, he did countless tests and examinations with private clinics at home and abroad. Among the doctors Heiko was examined by at the National Hospital was senior physician Børre Fevang. “In consultation with me, Fevang said of all my ailments and pain that ‘it may be that it sits in your head’”.
with itself, Trump’s 100 million standing army armed to its teeth if they saw their KING shot dead on live tv, on LIVE tv, they would have taken to the streets armed; thank God the fuckers MISSED!
As I wrote in stack, the mistake when you come to kill a king is to miss….don’t MISS don’t do that for the KING is coming for you! you think he is calm and reconciliatory…no, we want him to come for you…we need justice….legally…he knows that too…he must come for you! vengeance is a meal best served cold! Trump is good at that! I love it! Legal proper Justice, courts, ballot but full and complete and we close every fucking government agency that is of no use, and we fire 10,000 top down each agency, we shut them to fuck down, each alphabet in USA and we mass jail the fuckers…all of them, both sides who are corrupt and have broken law.
Long live our police, our military, our border agents, even our Secret Service even as they fucked up with guarding Trump…our precious people! who make sacrifices, our veterans alive today, all…all who laid life down…better than us…thank God for them.
MAGA…we need a Trump…that kind of stones to burn DC down, take it to the studs, fumigate it…remake it…America is the last best beacon for hope and chance, so let us fix her!
she must be fired! why? simple, based on her on defense, the cock-up was so massive, for her defense carries no water at this time; slope to slope, you take a look; I support police, Secret Service…
So let us wait to get the full answers but we are not stupid people, we see and we understand. This stinks to high heavens.
Again, our Lord saved Trump. And we must grieve for those killed and support Corey’s family and those injured.
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This is the sloped roof that the Secret Service were perched upon that shot the would be assassin (next) and compare it to the sloped roof that the Secret Service Director said was too steep to cover. To guard, that the shooter used as per reporting.
Was it that security of Trump was an afterthought? Was he denied appropriate security? Is it he Secret Service failure, or local police or who? Who set this up? WE need to stand back and get the proper answers for we all have become expert sleuths about these things and to be honest there is lots we need connected. So I/we have my theories as we know but am open to a proper assessment and conclusion.
‘The attempted assassination of Donald Trump represents one of the most astounding security failures in recent memory. If standards at the Butler rally represent how Trump has been protected until now, it’s amazing he wasn’t killed long ago. Thomas Matthew Crooks was by all accounts an unsophisticated would-be assassin, who raised the suspicion of law enforcement long before he opened fire, who took up his firing position in full view of many spectators who tried repeatedly to warn police, and who was even spotted by counter-sniper personnel whose entire mission was to prevent people like him from doing what he did.
Unfortunately, reporting on these security lapses has been fragmented, with key information buried in local media reporting. Here I’ll try to compile all the most important revelations in one place, both to reveal the full scope of the failure and to assist you in developing your own theories about what happened here.
It’s only four-and-a-half minutes long, and I recommend you watch it at least once all the way through, as it is clarifying on many points. Here are the highlights:
At around 0:35, we have the first recorded spectator attempts to alert police about the would-be assassin on the roof of the AGR International building.
Butler County Sheriff Michael Slupe confirmed to KDKA-TV that an armed municipal officer with Butler Township encountered shooter Thomas Crooks before he fired shots from a rooftop building outside the perimeter of former President Trump’s rally.
The sheriff said he was not made aware of any potential threats, but confirmed an officer encountered the shooter on the roof, and didn’t fire his weapon.
“All I know is the officer had both hands on the roof to get up on the roof, never made it because the shooter had turned towards the officer, and rightfully and smartly, the officer let go,” Sheriff Slupe said.
Sheriff Slupe says before the shooting, the officer and others were previously alerted to a suspicious person and began searching for him right away.
Sheriff Slupe said this officer was hoisted by another officer to the roof of a building where the shooter had taken a position.
The shooter, Crooks, focused his rifle on the officer who let go and fell off the roof. Then, the 20-year-old began firing into the crowd.
In subsequent interviews, Slupe has reiterated his defence of the officer, going so far as to call internet critics “assholes” and suggesting that he saved Trump’s life because “ten seconds before that … the president was looking straight ahead” and the “bullet could have potentially landed” much more directly. I can’t agree with this. Crooks started shooting when he realised security forces were closing in on his position; whether that was better or worse for Trump is very hard to say.
According to multiple law enforcement sources, Thomas Crooks was spotted by law enforcement on a roof nearly 30 minutes before shots were fired that injured Trump, killed a former fire chief and injured two others in the crowd.
Channel 11’s Nicole Ford confirmed that Beaver County’s ESU team had eight members at the rally, including snipers and spotters. According to Ford’s sources, one of them noticed a suspicious man on a roof near the rally at 5:45 p.m., called it in and took a picture of the person. We have learned from our sources the person in that picture is Thomas Crooks. We’re told it’s not clear if Crooks had a gun with him at that point.
According to multiple sources, a law enforcement officer had also previously seen Crooks on the ground and called him in as a suspicious person with a picture prior to 5:45 p.m. Our sources tell us an officer checked the grounds for Crooks at that point, but did not see him where the first picture was taken.
26 minutes after the second picture of Crooks was taken by law enforcement and the information called in, shots were fired from the roof of the American Glass Research building. Seconds later, a Secret Service sniper returned fire and killed Crooks.
Even more egregious is the fact that there was a counter-sniper team in the AGR International factory building – not on the roof, where they would’ve been most useful, but on the inside, where they had set up a “‘watch post’ … to scan for threats”:
A local police counter-sniper team was stationed inside the building where attempted assassin Thomas Crooks climbed on the roof and fired on Donald Trump, law enforcement sources told The Post.
The building — the AGR International Inc. factory in Butler, Pennsylvania — was being used by local police as a “watch post” for snipers to scan for threats as the former president spoke onstage only 130 yards away, according to sources.
Cops were inside, but not on the roof during the shooting, sources said …
Law enforcement sources said the building was swept by cops before the event and that the local sniper team used the large manufacturing site as a staging and lookout post — but did not climb on the roof for the event — possibly over concerns that it would interfere with the Secret Service snipers.
A Beaver County police officer warned a command center of seeing a man with a rangefinder before former president Donald Trump was shot on Saturday. The officer had also warned the man was scoping out the roof of the building he was stationed in as a counter-sniper, and that the man returned with a backpack before ultimately scaling the building …
BeaverCountian.com spoke with multiple law enforcement sources about security provided by agencies from Beaver, Butler and Washington counties during Saturday’s rally. They claim a lack of manpower and “extremely poor planning” put the former president’s life in grave danger.
Embattled Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle says she has no plans to resign, even after the stunning revelation that the agency decided not to guard the roof from which Thomas Crooks opened fire on former President Donald Trump because it was too slanted.
“That building in particular has a sloped roof at its highest point. And so, you know, there’s a safety factor that would be considered there that we wouldn’t want to put somebody up on a sloped roof,” she told ABC News in a startling admission.
“And so, you know, the decision was made to secure the building, from inside,” she told the outlet.
Here is the gravely dangerous “sloped roof”:
Anybody who is not a sphere would have no difficulty standing there, and in case you think I am playing games with angles, here is another, more direct view:
Consider, for comparison, the far more steeply sloped roof of the building behind the podium, where counter-snipers staged throughout Trump’s short speech all without falling off:
Cheatle’s obfuscation is so ill-considered that it demands explanation. If there were a good rationale for keeping law enforcement off the roof of that building – worries about interference with or cross-fire from the other counter-sniper team behind Trump, as some have suggested – the Secret Service director surely would’ve said as much. That she didn’t and reached instead for this weak tea, must mean that the true reason is a deeply embarrassing one – something on the order of this rumour, highlighted by friend-of-the-blog El Gato Malo:
Four sources close to President Biden’s family, including people who interacted with Cheatle during the Obama-Biden administration, said she was well liked by the future first lady and her most senior aides, including top adviser Anthony Bernal.
“Cheatle served on Dr. Biden’s second lady detail and Anthony pushed for her,” a Democratic insider told The Post. “Anthony has no national security or law enforcement experience. He should have no influence over the selection of the USSS director.”
“I heard at the time she was being considered for director that Anthony had pushed her forward as an option,” another well-placed source told The Post.
Bernal, 51, is widely regarded as rivaling even White House chief of staff Jeff Zients in terms of influence over administration decisions …
“Anthony is obsessed with being DEI-compliant,” a third source told The Post, using the acronym for diversity, equity and inclusion — the human resources practice of attempting to ensure diversity in the workforce.
Real Clear Politics, meanwhile, provides interesting information on the “inflexible protocols” of the Secret Service and their severe staffing problems. Their sources complain of mismanagement and the lack of local resources caused by parallel events held by Jill Biden and Kamala Harris in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia on the same day as Trump’s rally. To that comes the fact that Trump’s personal Secret Service detail is relatively small and calibrated to the typical demands of a lower-profile former president. They have made up the shortfall, in part, by leaning more heavily on local law enforcement. This would explain why the Secret Service provided only two counter-sniper officers to the rally, otherwise relying on state and local police to secure the crucial AGR International building.
All of this seems like a massive cock-up to me – one that may well have been driven by a malicious indifference towards Trump’s security, but also one that is in the end a massive embarrassment for the Secret Service. If there were any kind of conspiracy in play, the least we’d expect is for those involved to have arranged better excuses for their failures.’
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The end of the Russia-Ukraine gas transit agreement in 2024 will disrupt gas supplies to several European countries, particularly Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova.
To replace Russian gas, the EU will need to increase LNG imports and utilize alternative pipelines, such as the Trans-Balkan pipeline and the Balkan Stream.
Central and Eastern European countries are collaborating on the Vertical Gas Corridor initiative to enhance energy security and diversify gas supplies.
The European Union (EU) targets a ban on Russian fuel imports by 2027. However, nearly half of Russia’s pipeline gas supplies to Europe and Moldova are still passing through Ukraine, totaling 13.7 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2023. As the EU discusses the possibility of involving Azerbaijan in a future transit deal, the current five-year gas transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine is set to expire by the end of 2024, leading to concerns about the future flow of these gas volumes. Rystad Energy predicts that Russia’s gas will need to be rerouted to Europe through alternative paths, requiring an additional 7.2 Bcm per year of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to replace the gas transiting Ukraine. Supply disruptions may occur sooner than initially expected, as indicated by the Austrian company OMV’s market warning in May.
Slovakia, Austria and Moldova are the European nations most dependent on transit volumes, importing about 3.2 Bcm, 5.7 Bcmand 2.0 Bcm, respectively, in 2023. Last year, Russian gas passing through Ukraine supplied EU countries via entry points in Slovakia and Moldova. Moldova is adjusting its supply while having agreed with Ukraine on a continuous flow of Russian gas until the end of 2025, largely supplied to the pro-Russia separatist region of Transnistria. In 2023, the country imported 74% of its gas through Ukraine and, for the first time, received gas from Romania and the south through reverse flows via the Trans-Balkan pipeline. Italy’s energy company Eni and Hungary also imported Russian gas through Ukraine, while Slovenia and Croatia have been smaller takers of Russian gas via Ukraine.
Halting Russian gas pipeline flows via Ukraine would significantly impact countries relying on these volumes. For example, when the transit extension expires after 2025, Moldova would need to reroute its 2 Bcm supplied via Ukraine, possibly through reverse flows of the Trans-Balkan pipeline. To reach Moldova, Russian gas could use the Isaccea entry point between Romania and Ukraine, but a transit agreement for the short 25-kilometer distance through Ukraine would be required. The Trans-Balkan pipeline has been operated in reverse flow since the end of 2022, with 0.54 Bcm of gas entering Moldova via Ukraine from Romania through the Isaccea entry point in 2023. Additionally, gas from the Southern Gas Corridor in Azerbaijan, as well as from Turkish and Greek LNG import terminals, can reach Moldova via the south. When the Russia-Ukraine transit agreement ceases, the only alternative supply routes for Central and East European countries would be the Balkan Stream and the Horgos entry point between Serbia and Hungary.
Russian producer Gazprom and European importers are keen on continuous supplies via Ukraine, while Ukrainian officials deny any intention for a renewed agreement with Russia. Without Azerbaijan or another third party transiting the gas following a swap deal with Russia, the EU will require about 7.2 Bcm of gas to be sourced from the LNG market. Terminals in Poland, Germany, Lithuania and Italy could forward these volumes to the most affected counties, such as Slovakia and Austria,
Christoph Halser, Gas & LNG Analyst, Rystad Energy
Rystad Energy forecasts potential changes to the 2023 gas balance for affected countries under the assumption of 50% and 0% flow of gas via Ukraine and capacity limitations at relevant entry point alternatives. Without Russian gas, Slovakia would find itself at the end of the flow chain, requiring about 4 Bcm of gas delivered through the Lanzhot entry point from Czechia. With additional regasification capacity in Poland only available in 2025, a zero-flow scenario may even entail reverse flows from Austria into Slovakia.
Austria, the largest offtaker of Russian gas in 2023, would pivot towards increasing imports from Germany via the Oberkappel entry point, expected to operate at a maximum annual capacity of 8 Bcm. However, for Rystad Energy’s baseline year of 2023, the import capacity at Oberkappel will not be sufficient to close the 8.53 Bcm import gap. Without short-term capacity adjustments, gas transits to Hungary would decline, and outflows to Italy would be stopped. If all Russian gas flows via Ukraine were to cease, Austria would need to import up to 2.5 Bcm from Italy via the Arnoldstein-Tarvisio crossing point.
Italy has several options to replace Russian gas pipelines and has largely achieved independence from the Ukrainian transit. However, the country would be required to source about 3.75 Bcm for Slovakia and Austria. These additional supplies could come from the Ravenna floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) —5 Bcm per year from 2025—and 1.23 Bcm from pipeline supplies through Tunisia.
Hungary would face large challenges in case of a complete halt of Russian gas flow through Ukraine. Assuming Moldova is supplied via the south, capacity via the Trans-Balkan pipeline from Romania would be fully allocated, halting inflows from Romania. Furthermore, Austria would be unable to forward gas to Hungary, while Croatia won’t have additional regasification capacity available before 2025. Hungary would have to rely solely on increased gas flow through the TurkStream pipeline, whereby the Horgos entry point would be required to operate continuously at its maximum capacity of 9 Bcm per year. Alternatively, if Austria could source sufficient LNG from Italy, Hungary could receive additional gas through reverse flows at the Mosonmagyarovar entry point from Austria.
Central and Eastern European countries are preparing for a possible halt in the Ukraine gas transit and have joined forces to create a Vertical Gas Corridor under the EU’s Central and South Eastern Europe Energy Connectivity Initiative (CESEC). This year, on 19 January, a memorandum of understanding (MoU) was signed in Athens involving EU energy commissioner Kadri Simson and the Transmission System Operators (TSOs) from Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine and Moldova. The corridor would utilize existing infrastructure in Ukraine and Moldova and enable LNG imports from Greece and Turkey to reach Slovakia, Hungary and possibly Poland.
Furthermore, Turkey’s transmission system operator BOTAS and Bulgaria’s operator Bulgartransgaz signed an agreement in January 2024 to increase gas entry capacity at the Strandzha 1 entry point, enabling increased gas flows from Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea region into Europe. This expansion could aid in raising Azerbaijan’s EU gas exports from 13 Bcm to 20 Bcm per year by 2027 and, in the long run, potentially transport Iranian gas through the Solidarity Ring Initiative.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0931 DOWN .0009
USA/ YEN 156.43 UP 0.76 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//
GBP/USA 1.2985 DOWN 0.0003
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3681 UP .0002 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 14.28 PTS OR 0.48%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.00 PTS OR 0.22%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .37%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 39.00 PTS OR 0.22 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 14.28 PTS OR 0.48%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .37%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 971,34 PTS OR 2.36%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2463.50
silver:$30.40
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 103.53 UP 8 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2605 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2713)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.06 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.041…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.166% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.390 UP 3 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.444 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 10;30 AM 2464.55
SILVER AT 10;30: 30.36
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 17.43 PTS OR 0.21%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 82.54 PTS OR 0.45%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 15.74 PTS OR 0.21 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 42.30 OR 0.38%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 149.49 PTS OR 0.43% PTS
WTI Oil price 82.52 12EST/
Brent Oil: 84.6112:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 88.07ROUBLE UP 0 AND 36/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4045 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0700 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0896 DOWN 0.0044 OR 44 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2943 DOWN 0.0064 OR 64 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.065 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.041
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 157.37 UP 1.705 YEN DOWN 171 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3714 UP 0.36//CDN dollar DOWN 36 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 82.41
Brent OIL: 84.68
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS pts to 4.197
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS PTS to 4.415%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT 4.471
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.368 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 103.97 UP 47 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.08 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.07 DOWN 0 AND 52/100 roubles
GOLD 2,441.15 3:30 PM
SILVER: 29.75 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 533.19 PTS OR 1.29%
NASDAQ DOWN 94.05 PTS OR 0.48 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15,88 UP 1.40 PTS OR 9.69%
GLD: $225.78 DOWN 1.56 OR 0.64%
SLV/ $27.20 DOWN 0.47 OR 1.20%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Dollar Surges As Selling-Panic Spreads Across All Assets
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM
‘Good’ news from TSMC trumped yesterday’s ASML bad news and a solid Philly Fed print helped juice stocks early but under the hood of the Philly Fed data was soaring inflation expectations, which along with general derisking sent stocks lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were the day’s biggest loser – with a major swing intraday as they tried to ignite a squeeze at the open (from +1% to -2% intraday). The rest of the majors were all red. A late day rally put some lipstick on the pig but it wasn’t pretty…
Bear in mind that – thanks to that late-day pump – we missed a historical event today in the S&P 500 – going back to the start of 1928, the SPX has never followed an all-time high with two consecutive losses of 1% or more.
Goldman’s trading desk notes that volumes continue to be elevated (tracking +14% vs the trailing 20 days). Our floor is skewed +2% better to buy with HFs driving most of that.
HFs are buying consumer discretionary and industrials vs selling tech for the 2nd day in a row.
LOs also better to buy but activity from the group feels quieter than yesterday. LOs selling tech + Hcare vs buying fins.
‘Size’, ‘Momentum’, and ‘Quality’ were clubbed like a baby seal:
The ~6% drop in the Size factor (GSP1SIZE Index) is biggest since May 2020 (small outperforming big)
The 5.7% drop in Barra Momentum (GSP1MOMO Index) is is largest since Feb 2023 and the biggest drop since the factor began its ascent in Jan 2024.
The 4% drop in Barra Quality (GSP1QUAL index) is nearly as extreme as December 2023, and the uptrend since 2021 appears broken.
Value dominating Growth (though both were sold today)…
Source: Bloomberg
Equal-weight S&P continues to play catch up to cap-weight…
Source: Bloomberg
MAG7 stocks tumbled (once again) to their lowest in a month…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ stocks suffered their second straight day of sizable losses as the Small-Cap squeeze ran out of ammo…
Source: Bloomberg
While equity vol (VIX) has angrily awoken from its slumber, bond vol (MOVE) has not… yet…
Source: Bloomberg
Bonds were dumped alongside stocks today with the whole curve up 3-4bps, back higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold joined the selling party today, dropping back below $2450…
Source: Bloomberg
Choppy day for crude prices but WTI ended lower, struggling to hold $83.50…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite more ETF inflows, bitcoin suffered some more pain today unable to hold $65000 – but again, significantly less ‘beta’ to the general plunge in tech…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as everything else was sold, the dollar surged higher – unwinding all of the week’s losses…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Biden seeing more red today as his odds of getting the Democratic Party nomination collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
Kamala for the win, “unburdened by what has been..”
END
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
phony initial jobless claims rise to highest point since 2023
(zerohedge)
Initial Jobless Claims Rebounds To Highest Since Aug 2023
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 08:36 AM
After seasonally-adjusted initial jobless claims plunged last week (NSA did not), they rebounded strongly this week from 223k to 243k – in line with the highest claims print since August 2023. On an NSA basis, claims exploded higher (and that is not a seasonal pattern).
Source: Bloomberg
The surge in NSA claims is dominated by Texas, California, and Georgia. Perhaps the spike in Texas is Hurricane Beryl-related?
Continuing jobless claims also picked back up, to 1.867mm Americans filing benefits – the highest since Nov 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
That trend in initial and continuing claims is not Americans’ friend (but maybe Wall St.’s ‘bad news is good news’ best buddy?)…
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Schumer Says “Best For Biden To Drop Out Of Race” As President Tests Positive For COVID
WEDNESDAY, JUL 17, 2024 – 07:25 PM
Update (1927ET):
Moments ago, ABC News reported that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., advised President Biden to end his reelection for the greater good of the country and the Democratic Party.
Only eight days ago, Schumer had a different opinion on Biden: “I’m with Joe.”
Chuck Schumer repeats the same thing each of the three times he’s asked about the scandal around Biden’s cognitive decline: “I’m with Joe”
·
133.5K Views
Chuck Schumer repeats the same thing each of the three times he's asked about the scandal around Biden's cognitive decline: "I'm with Joe" pic.twitter.com/e6wjtHyTru
Earlier, according to Fox News, citing multiple sources, Schumer pushed for the Democratic National Convention’s delay as questions soared about the president’s 2024 candidacy.
According to Axios, the delay “signals that the congressional leaders sympathize with rank-and-file Democrats who want more time to address concerns about Biden’s ability to defeat former President Trump.”
Vice President Kamala Harris’s nomination odds for the party now stand at 50, while Biden’s is at 38.
Democratic lawmaker have been urging Biden to drop out since his disastrous debate with former President Trump last month.
* * *
Just hours after President Biden mentioned in an interview that he would consider dropping out of the presidential race if diagnosed with a “medical condition,” the elderly president tested positive for Covid-19 this afternoon.
UnidosUS president Janet Murguía informed the audience at the organization’s national conference in Vegas about Biden’s diagnosis.
Biden allegedly can’t give his speech in Nevada because he “tested positive for COVID.” He was greeting restaurant patrons just an hour ago.
·
246.6K Views
Biden allegedly can't give his speech in Nevada because he "tested positive for COVID."
White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said President Biden was delivering speeches in Las Vegas when he “experienced mild symptoms.”
KJP said the president “will be returning to Delaware, where he will self-isolate and will continue to carry out all of his duties fully during that time.”
She noted, “The White House will provide regular updates on the President’s status as he continues to carry out the full duties of the office while in isolation.”
Biden’s doctor reported that the president developed a runny nose and a “non-productive cough” on Wednesday afternoon.
“He felt okay for his first event of the day, but given that he was not feeling better, point of care testing for COVID-19 was conducted, and the results were positive for the COVID-19 virus,” the doctor wrote in a statement shared by the White House.
The doctor said, “The President has received his first dose of Paxlovid,” adding that Biden’s symptoms “remain mild.”
Biden boarded Air Force One in Vegas this evening, the White House pool reported.
This was Joe Biden yesterday which includes touching and sniffing various people. Joe Biden has tested positive for ‘Covid’. Joe Biden is a ‘Super Spreader’.
0:41
·
132.6K Views
This was Joe Biden yesterday which includes touching and sniffing various people.
Biden this morning: I would consider stepping down if a doctor told me i had a medical condition requiring me to do so. Biden this afternoon: I have COVID.
·
86 Views
Biden this morning: I would consider stepping down if a doctor told me i had a medical condition requiring me to do so.
Winston Churchill once famously said that “nothing in life is so exhilarating as to be shot at without result.”
For Donald Trump, the failed assassination attempt in Pennsylvania could prove politically exhilarating. After rising with a fist pump and a call to fight on, Trump seems to have gone from being a movement to a mythological figure with his supporters. All he needs now is a big blue ox named Babe to return to the campaign trail.
This assassination attempt should also concentrate the minds of everyone on the escalating rhetoric in this campaign, particularly the media in maintaining inflammatory narratives. Yet, the hateful and unhinged language has continued unabated from academics declaring that the assassination attempt was staged to those who complain that the only problem was that Thomas Matthew Crooks missed.
The narrative began as soon as Trump was elected when the press and pundits uniformly and falsely claimed that Trump had praised neo-Nazis and Klansmen in 2017 as “fine people” in Charlottesville.
Watching Trump’s statement at the time, it was clear to most of us that Trump condemned the neo-Nazis and that the statement about “fine people on both sides” was in reference to the debate over the removal of historic statues.
It did not matter. The press and politicians have hammered away at the notion that Trump is seeking to end democracy and that everyone from gay people to reporters will be “disappeared.”
After the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on presidential immunity, Rachel Maddow went on the air with a hysterical claim that “death squads” had just been green lighted by conservatives. Democratic strategist Jame Carville insists that Trump’s reelection will bring “the end of the Constitution.”
It is all what I call “rage rhetoric” in my new book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage.” The book explores centuries of rage politics and political violence. This is not our first age of rage but it could well be the most dangerous.
Two years before the assassination attempt, I appeared before the Senate Judiciary Committee to testify on the expansion of domestic terrorism investigations. Democrats were seeking to pressure the FBI to focus on far-right groups as potential terrorist groups. The use of political views rather than conduct has been used historically to crackdown on groups from socialists to anarchists to feminists.
The narrative that the threat of violence is coming primarily from the Right is demonstrably false but consistently echoed in the media.
We have seen a growing level of leftist violence in the last decade. That includes riots in cities like Portland and Seattle where billions of dollars of damage occurred, hundreds of officers injured, and many citizens killed. In 2020 alone, 25 people were killed in the protests.
The Democrats often raise the Jan. 6th riot and it is important to acknowledge that the damage extended to an attack on our constitutional process. However, the preceding protest around the White House caused more injuries and more property damage. Then President Trump had to be removed to a safe location as Secret Service feared a breach of the White House.
There were a reported 150 officers injured (including at least 49 Park Police officers around the White House) in the Lafayette Park riot. Protesters caused extensive property damage including the torching of a historic structure and the attempted arson of St. John’s Church.
Mass shootings by leftist gunmen have repeatedly occurred but those are treated as one offs while any conservative shooter is part of a pattern of right-wing violence.
Keith Ellison, the Democratic attorney general of Minnesota, mocked the notion of liberal violence. In one tweet, he declared “I have never seen @BernieSanders supporters being unusually mean or rude. Can someone send me an example of a ‘Bernie Bro’ being bad. Also, are we holding all candidates responsible for the behavior of some of their supporters? Waiting to hear.”
Republican Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana replied dryly: “I can think of an example.” Scalise was severely wounded at the 2017 shooting at a congressional baseball game practice by a Sanders supporter.
Ellison was a particularly ironic Democratic politician to repeat this mantra. When he was the Democratic National Committee deputy chair, Ellison praised Antifa, a violent anti-free speech group that regularly attacks conservatives, pro-lifers, and others.
Ellison said Antifa would “strike fear in the heart” of Trump. This was after Antifa had been involved in numerous acts of violence and its website was banned in Germany.
Ellison’s son, Minneapolis City Council member Jeremiah Ellison, declared his allegiance to Antifa in the heat of the protests this summer. When confronted about Antifa’s violence, then House Judiciary Chairman Jerry Nadler denied that the group existed. Likewise, Joe Biden has dismissed objections to Antifa as just “an idea.”
In the meantime, Biden has called Trump and his supporters “enemies of the people.” He recently said that the threat to democracy was so great that debates are no solution: “we’re done talking about the debate, it’s time to put Trump in a bullseye.”
Even after the attempted assassination of Justice Brett Kavanaugh, the media has failed to see a pattern while stoking the claim of a right-wing violent movement.
In the meantime, Democrats previously filed to strip Secret Service protection from Trump. The former Chair of the J6 Committee and the ranking Democrat on the House Homeland Security Committee introduced the legislation, called Denying Infinite Security and Government Resources Allocated toward Convicted and Extremely Dishonorable (DISGRACED).
The press and pundits continue to tell Americans that Trump and his supporters are going to kill democracy and probably those they love. While most people dismiss the rage rhetoric, there are some who take it as a license to take the most extreme action.
We are still learning about Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, who was killed after trying to assassinate Trump.
A registered Republican, Crooks gave money to ActBlue to support Democratic candidates.
Yet, we know him all too well. He is likely to be found to be a lonely, unhinged individual who found meaning in an attempted political murder.
Thomas Crooks like Nicholas Roske (who tried to kill Justice Kavanaugh) are the faces that watch from the political shadows. They hear leaders telling them to stop the Nazis before democracy dies . . . and they believe them.
As for Democrats, the anger evident every night on cable networks may reflect a degree of insecurity about becoming the very thing that they are campaigning against. It is time for the party to look around to take stock of its anti-democratic policies.
They have called for cleansing ballots of over 120 other Republicans. They have supported censorship, blacklisting, and other attacks on free speech.
As a lifelong Democrat, I have repeatedly asked what we have become in this age of rage. If we embrace groups like Antifa, oppose free speech, and cleanse ballots, we will have little beyond our rage to sustain us.
END
A must read: Pepe Escobar on what is going on behind the scenes with respect to Biden
(Pepe Escobar)
Escobar: Iwo Jima 2.0 – What Story Is This Picture Telling?
The Iwo Jima 2.0 pic, immortalizing the Trump fist surviving an assassination attempt, has taken the world by storm – generating everything from a meme tsunami on China’s Weibo to fresh anime in Japan. Not to mention the deluge of hats and T-shirts.
This carefully composed pic changes everything – in more ways than one. So let’s engage in a first attempt to deconstruct it.
We start with the major losers.
The combo running Crash Test Dummy’s teleprompter/earpiece set up is essentially composed by Mike Donilon, Steve Richetti, Bruce Reed and Ted Kaufman.
Government functionaries like Jake Sullivan and Little Blinkie, for their part, are placed at the heart of what is known in Washington as the “inter-agency” racket, better described as The Blob.
The inestimable Alastair Crooke has explained how Sullivan and Little Blinkie’s deliberations are “spread through a matrix of interlocking ‘clusters’ that includes the Military Industrial Complex, Congressional leaders, Big Donors, Wall Street, the Treasury, the CIA, the FBI, a few cosmopolitan oligarchs and the princelings of the security-intelligence world.”
Yet the key – invisible – point is who (italics mine) tells Sullivan and Blinkie what to do.
These are the people who really (italics mine) run the show: the Big Families, and the Big Donors – old money and especially new money (as in invisible Vanguard shareholders).
They are all stunned.
They never thought it would come to this debacle – even if Joe Biden was expressly chosen for what he is: a crude, corrupt, easily-manipulated lackey, and head of a crime family. Everyone in a position of real power in the Blob knew he was becoming a zombie ages ago.
There’s fierce debate across the Beltway over how many factions are at war with each other inside the Dem blob.
There are at least three:
1.The Biden crime family – on which tens of thousands of people with cushy jobs and fat salaries depend.
2.The down-ballot Dem machine – an “extended family” of other tens of thousands who will lose badly, in elections or re-elections, in the event of a Trump 2.0. These are the ones who want to throw Crash Test Dummy under the – retirement home – bus and replace him with a Dem they hope and pray might win (the number one candidate is the uber-incompetent Kamala Harris).
Needless to add, these two factions not only are at vicious Hot War against each other but also at war with…
3.The ones who really matter: the actual Deep State – from the “intelligence community” to webs woven inside the CIA and the FBI. This is the infernal machine that actually gave the White House on a platter to Biden in 2020.
Dem Chuck Schumer once famously proclaimed: if you cross this faction, they have “Six Ways from Sunday” to get to you, destroy you, or whack you. With total impunity.
Enter Six Ways from Sunday
So this is what might happen next – way beyond Iwo Jima 2.0 and the irresistible pull of the Trump-Vance ticket. If the Deep State cannot influence the outcome of the November elections, they can find Six Ways from Sunday to cancel it, by invoking a “national emergency”. Anything goes – from false flag terrorism to war.
Extrapolating from a quite cool analysis by a crack fintech expert in Berlin, it’s possible to characterize the bipartisan War Party arrangement in the Blob as two real Mafioso enterprises fighting over an Exceptionalistan on the brink of abysmal bankruptcy – and forced to choose its final Forever Wars.
The Six Ways from Sunday faction is determined to go all the way – employing every imperial means – to conquer what could be dubbed the El Dorado in the black soil of Novorossiya, whose resources could buy it, maybe, another 50 years of power.
On the other side, the MAGA group doesn’t care about those Slavlands, and is convinced that the real existential threat is the Middle Kingdom. And as it is beholden to the Book of Joshua racket, the MAGA group also believes that “something must be done“ about Iran.
Either group, by the way, is de facto fully devoted to the Book of Joshua racket.
The Empire – of Chaos – happens to be run under a quite peculiar governance, in which a very complicated voting system decides which group gets access to the means for pursuing their obsession.
As long as there was enough gold in the vaults of the Empire – illegally appropriated or otherwise – the two groups alternated Power Possession without too much fuss.
But then all those Forever Wars lost over the years against militarily insignificant adversaries started to take their toll. And the financial times now are really, really tough.
The imperial voting system holds an extremely bizarre characteristic: under roughly equal voter affiliation to either group, the votes cast in just five cities in five states in the midwest Heartland actually determine the fate of those dwindling imperial resources fiercely fought over by the two main groups.
The Six Ways from Sunday group happens to control the voting in those five cities.
Already in the past elections, the Six Ways from Sunday group pre-empted a certain victory of the MAGA group in the Heartland to the tune of 10 million votes, most of them cast in truckloads of forged ballots in those five cities, plus related electronic tampering.
What the MAGA group now clearly sees is the possibility to finally grab those five cities in five states.
And yet 10 million excess votes and trying to conquer those five states may not be enough in the face of the massive fraud machine.
So in 2024 MAGA calculates that they must win another five states typically leaning towards the Six Ways from Sunday universe, and win by an excess of at least 20 million votes to pre-empt the all but certain massive fraud.
That’s where Iwo Jima 2.0 come in – graphically formatting the ticket for a landslide victory.
Six Ways from Sunday may be beyond dazed and confused at the current incandescent juncture. The trillion dollar question is: how will they change the narrative and regain the initiative?
They have made the lethal mistake of picking as their candidate a walking dead. In contrast, MAGA parades the quintessential narcissistic pop superstar, now supercharged and re-energized, and carrying global appeal.
It seems that the landslide is inevitable. Six Ways from Sunday is mired in total panic – knowing they are about to lose control.
Yet the fat lady has not yet sung.
Three and a half months is a galactic eternity in politics. And a cornered Six Ways from Sunday is all set to roar with more ferocity than ever.
end
Good indictor of troubles in the USA economy
(zerohedge)
Domino’s Crashes Most Since Late 2008 After “Temporarily Suspending” Store Growth Guidance Metric
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 09:30 AM
Shares of Domino’s Pizza in premarket trading in New York crashed the most since late 2008 following a surprise announcement in an earnings report this morning about the company cutting its 2024 international store-growth target due to “challenges” faced by franchisee Domino’s Pizza Enterprises. Also, the company “temporarily suspended” its long-term guidance metric of plus 1,000 global net stores annually.
Domino’s US same-store sales increased by 4.8% in the second quarter, missing the 4.92% average estimate tracked by Bloomberg. Internationally, comparable sales surpassed estimates, rising by 2.1%
Here’s a snapshot of the second quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
International comparable sales +2.1%, estimate +0.89%
Adjusted EPS $4.03, estimate $3.69
Operating income $196.1 million, estimate $203.4 million
Restaurant margin 17.6%, estimate 18.5%
Wall Street analysts focused on the company’s announcement that it is “temporarily suspending its guidance metric of 1,100+ global net stores until the full effect of Domino’s Pizza Enterprises’ store openings and closures on international net store growth is known.”
Domino’s expects to open 175 stores annually in the US between now and 2028, but international openings will drop 175 to 275 stores below its 2024 goal of more than 925 new stores.
“The company is partnering closely with Domino’s Pizza Enterprises as they work through this process and will provide further updates once it has more visibility into the effect on its annual global net store growth numbers,” said Domino’s.
The news sent shares in New York crashing nearly 15% in the premarket. If losses are sustained through the cash session, this would be the largest daily decline since the 17.87% plunge on December 1, 2008.
The pizza bubble is reversing.
Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the earnings report (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Citi, Jon Tower
“Crux” of investor frustration over this print will be the suspension of Domino’s long-term unit growth plans “merely 8 months after the company issued new longer-term targets,” Tower writes
Domino’s unexpected lowered 2024 international unit growth goal to 650–750 from 925+ will “shake investor confidence” in management’s broader guidance and pressure shares, which have been trading at a premium multiple vs. global quick-service peers in recent quarters amid “greater relative visibility into longer-term drivers of the business”
While the issue seems to be “isolated to the brand,” Tower says other “fast-growing and global quick service operators” probably come under pressure in the near term
Rates neutral
Baird, David Tarantino
Notes recent expectations for US comparable sales were +5-6%, and flags that Ebit was softer than anticipated
“Although somewhat disappointed that Q2 results did not live up to elevated expectations, the key components of our positive thesis are largely intact, and as a result, we see a good risk/reward in buying DPZ on the anticipated pullback”
Says small differences in international unit growth “do not have major impact on DPZ’s earnings growth in a given year,” so he’s optimisitic the company is on track to deliver results at or above its annual growth targets for system sales and Ebit this year * Rates outperform with PT $580
Bernstein, Danilo Gargiulo
Says the comparable sales growth in domestic markets and the re-acceleration of trends in international markets encouraging
“At the same time, while we remained cautious on unit growth in intl’ markets, the suspension of guidance suggests that the challenges in the portfolio of stores may be more enduring than we had anticipated”
Rates market perform with PT $510
Is the pizza bubble toast?
END
Here is another indicator of how bad the economy is behaving
(zerohedge)
Pool Plunge: Leslie’s Crashes After Full-Year Outlook Slashed Amid Consumer Slowdown
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 11:45 AM
Leslie’s shares crashed as much as 38% in the early US cash session after the swimming pool supplies retailer announced preliminary third-quarter results that missed the average analysts tracked by Bloomberg and slashed its full-year forecast on continuing consumer weakness.
Here’s a snapshot of the preliminary third-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Prelim sales about $570 million, estimate $614.6 million (Bloomberg Consensus)
Prelim adjusted EPS 32c to 33c, estimate 42c
Prelim adjusted Ebitda $108 million to $109 million, estimate $131.2 million
“Considering these preliminary results and expectations for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, the Company is revising its full year fiscal 2024 outlook,” Leslie’s wrote in a statement.
Here’s a breakdown of the revised full-year fiscal 2024 outlook:
Sees sales $1.32 billion to $1.35 billion, saw $1.41 billion to $1.47 billion, estimate $1.42 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees adjusted Ebitda $117 million to $131 million, saw $170 million to $190 million
Sees adjusted EPS 3.0c to 9.0c, saw 25c to 33c, estimate 28c
Mike Egeck, CEO, explained that the “cold and wet spring weather” during the quarter “reduced the number of pool days in non-seasonal markets and delayed the start of pool season in seasonal markets.”
This is key:
“We also continued to see weakness in large ticket discretionary categories as persistent inflation and high interest rates pressure pool owners’ wallets,” Egeck said.
Goldman analyst Kate McShane told clients this morning that after the company’s dismal preliminary results, their price target has been cut to $4, down from $5.
“LESL management pre-announced its Q3 results AMC on 7/17 as a result of wetter weather and ongoing weakness in demand for big ticket items. We have lowered our FY24, FY25 and FY26 EPS estimates as a result. Our target price is now $4 (down from $5),” McShane said.
She said, “We remain Neutral on LESL as the company works through a normalization of demand post COVID.”
Here’s a breakdown of McShane’s report to clients:
Q3 preannouncement details– The Company expects preliminary sales for the fiscal third quarter of approximately $570 million (compared to FactSet consensus of $598mn). Gross profit is expected to be $228 to $229 million (compared to FactSet consensus of $245mn) and gross margin is expected to be approximately 40%. Net income is expected to be $56 to $58 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $108 to $109 million, adjusted net income is expected to be $59 to $60 million, and adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be $0.32 to $0.33 (compared to FactSet consensus of $0.39).
Full year guidance revised – The Company is also revising its full year fiscal 2024 outlook. Sales are now expected to be $1,321 to $1,347 million (down 7.4% at the mid point from original guidance), with gross profit now expected to be $483 to $499 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be $117 to $131 million (down from original guidance of $170-$190m), and adjusted diluted earnings per share are expected to be $0.03 to $0.09 (down from original guidance of ($0.25-$0.33). The company expects to end the fiscal year with approximately 20% less inventory than at fiscal 2023 year-end and is expected to have more cash on hand at the end of the fiscal year compared to the end of fiscal 2023 (FY 23 cash was $55.4M).
Highlights of Q3; some data points showing signs of improvement – The guide for Q3 implies a SSS of ~-7%; a sequential improvement on both a one and two year stack basis (Q2 SSS was down 12.1%) driven by weaker equipment and larger ticket discretionary sales. However, sales trends improved throughout the quarter with June SSS ending -2%. Encouragingly, the company highlighted MSD growth in chemical sales in June (significantly improved from the down MSD growth in chemicals last quarter). Although trends improved in June, the company revised full year sales guidance at the mid point assumes Q3 trends continue through Q4, implying some conservatism, in our view.
She included upside and downside risks in her forecast:
Upside risks include better-than-expected demand, particularly for discretionary products; stronger margins, driven by stronger sales and leverage; favorable weather, contributing to stronger seasonal demand; stable and/or better-than-expected chemicals pricing; and a more significant reduction in leverage.
Downside risks include potentially sustained demand headwinds; if chemical price deflation is more than anticipated; promotional risk; lower-than-expected customer growth and retention; lower growth prospects if residential pools decrease in popularity; and execution risks.
Besides Goldman, here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying about the preliminary third-quarter results:
Piper Sandler (neutral)
Analysts Peter Keith and Alexia Morgan say Leslie’s seems to be “experiencing pressure from numerous angles,” noting that each of the company’s categories is trending toward y/y declines in 3Q and weak traffic in the residential channel
PT cut to $3 from $6
Jefferies (hold)
“Unfavorable weather continues to overshadow ongoing company efficiencies, as a cold and wet spring delayed the start to pool season ’24 and weighed on F’3Q results,” analyst Jonathan Matuszewski writes
Notes weather improved in June along with the company’s performance; updated guidance assumes 3Q trends remain steady in 4Q
PT cut to $3.50 from $4
The gloomy outlook for swimming pool supply demand caused the company’s shares to crash 38%.
Shares stumbled to a record low in New York.
This comes weeks after the world’s largest wholesale distributor of swimming pools and related outdoor living products, Pool Corp., warned about “dampening discretionary spending” that only signals a broader consumer downturn.
End-Game Looms: Pelosi, Jeffries, Schumer Told Biden He Can’t Win And Is Hurting Party Too
BY TYLER DURDEN
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 10:25 AM
Calls for enfeebled President Biden to call off his re-election bid are not only growing more numerous, but also more powerful, as three top Democratic officials — Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — have all reportedly told the president that his campaign is worse than hopeless.
Suggesting a coordinated effort, news about three separate conversations that happened in the last week all dropped on Wednesday. The gap between the discussions and the reports is likely attributable to a desire to first give Biden a chance to bail out gracefully race before more pressure was added using leaks to the media.
BIDEN: “Look at the heat I’m getting because I, I named a, uh, the, uh, secretary of defense — the black man”
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BIDEN: "Look at the heat I'm getting because I, I named a, uh, the, uh, secretary of defense — the black man" 🥴 pic.twitter.com/PJYzDznpIV
Pelosi was said to have shared specific polling results indicating Biden has no path to victory, and that his continued presence atop the 2024 ticket could doom the Democratic Party’s chances of re-taking control of the House. According to CNN’s sources, Biden insisted he can win, saying he’s seen polls that give him hope that it’s a closer race than other say. Trying to bolster her case, Pelosi asked longtime Biden advisor Mike Donilon join the call to review the numbers.
The seeming next step for Pelosi — and the others — would be a public statement urging Biden to quit. A Pelosi ally told Politico that such a statement is a possibility, saying, “The speaker does not want to call on him to resign, but she will do everything in her power to make sure it happens.”
BIDEN: “And guess what? Save billions of tons of because of, of pollution, because people, uhwhenuhh, all the studies show, when you get from point A to point B in a train or a vehicle at the same distance you take the train.”
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BIDEN: "And guess what? Save billions of tons of because of, of pollution, because people, uhwhenuhh, all the studies show, when you get from point A to point B in a train or a vehicle at the same distance you take the train." pic.twitter.com/1yAzSGqTfq
News of Pelosi’s conversation came soon after word that Schumer had his own pointed conversation with Biden on Saturday. In a personal visit to Biden’s home in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, Schumer was said to have bluntly told Biden that quitting the race would be best for America and the Democratic Party.
Like Pelosi, Schumer attempted to use polling to paint a picture for the defiant 81-year-old. While many national polls show a relatively narrow margin, what counts is the seven battleground states — and Trump is ahead in all of them. Even CNN’s John King recently showed why Trump could be on track for a landslide win. While details are thinner, ABC News reports that Jeffries also voiced the same concerns directly to Biden, politely nudging him to quit.
All of this came on what was already a very rough day for Biden. After looking especially weak speaking from podiums on the campaign trail, the White House announced that Biden had tested positive for Covid-19 and would return to Delaware to isolate while still performing his presidential duties. Notably, as he boarded and exited Air Force One, he was maskless — something that contravenes a leftist core belief.
More notable than his bare face was his exceedingly frail appearance:
After exiting Air Force One, President Biden appears to struggle getting into the car, ultimately requiring Secret Service to physically lift him into place and even manually adjust his legs for him.
After exiting Air Force One, President Biden appears to struggle getting into the car, ultimately requiring Secret Service to physically lift him into place and even manually adjust his legs for him. 😬 #Parkinsonspic.twitter.com/mgY2ojsUi9
Forget a second term — will Biden even finish his first?
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON…
Tucker Carlson: “Every Bad Person I’ve Ever Met In A Lifetime In Washington Was Aligned Against J.D. Vance”
THURSDAY, JUL 18, 2024 – 12:25 PM
Tucker Carlson, speaking yesterday at the Heritage Foundation’s “Policy Fest” at the Republican National Committee in Milwaukee, made the case for U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio), who was announced yesterday as former President Donald Trump’s running mate:
So now J. D. Vance is the VP pick, and I think every person who pays close attention has got to be thrilled by that.
And if you don’t know much about J. D. Vance, I’m not even going to make a case for J. D. Vance. I’m going to tell you what I just saw, which is that every bad person I’ve ever met in a lifetime in Washington was aligned against J.D. Vance.
And I do think the negative case is often more powerful, because I know of myself, I do not think I’m a particularly good person. I have strong reasons for feeling that way. I don’t always think that my side is right. I know for a fact I have been wrong many, many times. And I hope to correct and be honest about my error.
So it’s not like I think that, you know, always, you know, God’s always on my side. Sometimes I’m not on God’s side. But I definitely know who’s representing the other side. It’s a lot easier to tell who the people who are only in it because they like, I don’t know, killing other people in pointless wars.
Like, I know who those people are, and their odor is so powerful that I can smell one when he walks in the room. And every single one of those people in a line that would extend from Milwaukee to Chicago was lined up over the last week to knife J. D. Vance.
Not on personal grounds, I mean, he’s a perfectly nice guy, he’s like one of the only members of the Senate with a happy marriage. True.
But because they thought he would be harder to manipulate and slightly less enthusiastic about killing people. That’s it. That he would be an impediment to their exercising power. And boy, they went after him in a way I’ve just kind of never seen. Which I think happens every day in Washington. I just don’t have advantage on it because I’m far, far away and grateful to be.
Biden Has Tested Positive for Covid-19 White House Says – BBG 18:13 ET (The Big Guy canceled a scheduled campaign speech in Las Vegas.) Biden says ‘medical condition’ could prompt him to drop out ‘if doctors came to me’ https://trib.al/fcCe8jP
@CurtisHouck: CNN’s Jeff Zeleny is reporting a “senior Democratic adviser…believes the president is being ‘more receptive’ to” calls for him to drop out of the 2024 presidential race.Zeleny added Biden is “not as defiant as” before. Biden is now asking advisers if they “think Kamala can win” in November against Donald Trump
Yesterday, Dem leadership moved against The Big Guy, probably due to his recent appearances. ABC reports that on Saturday, Schumer told Biden it would be best for Dems and US if Joe dropped out.
CBS: DNC letter says virtual roll call to nominate Biden will happen in August “We will elaborate on the reasoning below as to why a virtual vote is the wisest approach, and will explain how a virtual vote would work… No matter what may be reported, our goal is not to fast-track. (Team Joe is trying to fast track Joe’s nomination before it’s too late.)… The timing of this letter comes as a group of congressional Democrats urged the DNC to cancel the virtual vote, which initially came about because of an early ballot deadline in Ohio but is now seen by some Democrats as a way to curtail “legitimate debate” about Mr. Biden’s place on the Democratic ticket… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/democratic-national-committee-letter-joe-biden-virtual-roll-call/
@ReedReports: Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer pushed for the DNC delay in virtual roll call nomination, a source familiar tells me, @scrippsnews @heatherscope: House Minority Leader… Jeffries also relayed members’ concerns to DNC, I’m told
Biden had rambling Zoom call with dozens of Dems ‘worse than the debate’ shortly before Trump assassination attempt – The 81-year-old president repeatedly lost his train of thought on the call… “The call was even worse than the debate. He was rambling; he’d start an answer then lose his train of thought, then would just say ‘whatever.’ He really couldn’t complete an answer. I lost a ton of respect for him,” one person on the call said. “The president was rambling, dismissive of concerns, unable or unprepared to present a campaign strategy,” added a second source, who is a member of Congress… “I put NATO together. Name me a foreign leader who thinks I’m not the most effective leader in the world on foreign policy. Tell me!” he (Biden) continued… https://nypost.com/2024/07/17/us-news/biden-had-rambling-zoom-call-worse-than-the-debate/
@bonchieredstate: I just read this again, and it’s worse than I first thought. Was Biden suggesting that Beau Biden, who served in a non-combat role for a single tour, did more to win his Bronze Star than Crow, who did three combat tours as an Army Ranger?
Trump warns US Fed chair not to cut rates before the election The central bank would “maybe” cut interest rates before the election on November 5, but added “it’s something that they know they shouldn’t be doing”… “I would let him serve it out… Especially if I thought he was doing the right thing.”… https://www.ft.com/content/11bc931f-5c5e-4e3c-9ceb-9bdca25430ad
DJT told the world that a rate cut before November 5 is a political act – and Powell’s future as Fed Chair depends on “doing the right thing.” Powell and the leftists at the Fed have been warned that if they cut rates before the election, Trump will excoriate them for it – and he is likely to be the next president.
Nvidia, AI-related stocks, and Fangs tumbled on Wednesday due to the proposed chip crackdown and because technically, these stocks have broken down. They have lost Big Mo; traders are puking them.
ESUs traded lower but flat during early Asian trading. After 19:00 ET, they gradually declined until the selling accelerated during the final hour of Nikkei trading. ESUs hit a temporary bottom of 5658.25 at 4:26 ET. The ensuing 2-hour rally was modest; ESUs resumed the decline at 6:45 ET.
After hitting 5662.75 at 9:27 ET, the NYSE opening rally took ESUs to 567275 at 9:52 ET. The dump appeared; ESUs fell and continued falling until they made a low of 5633.25 at 13:15 ET. The Afternoon rally pushed ESUs to 5651.75 at 14:32 ET. ESUs then had a moderate A-B-C drop into the close.
CME Group Interest Rates @Interest_Rates: Front-end Treasury futures amass record positions. Combined open interest in 2-, 3- and 5-Year Note futures has reached an all-time high, as expectations for FOMC action grow and the curve steepens ahead of a possible rate cut in the fall. https://x.com/Interest_Rates/status/1813583062598357238
Street jigginess for front-end Treasuries is at an all-time high. Thus, this is an extremely dangerous part of the curve. Any jump in inflation, or Fed hesitancy to cut rates could provoke spirited liquidation.
@RealEJAntoni: Surge in apartments being completed will help slow rent increases, but that’ll be short-lived b/c permits have been trending down for 2 years, and starts have followed, which means supply over the next few years will be growing slower than pre-pandemic rates while demand rises: https://t.co/4kcA4WfJWf
Fed Biege Book July 2024 https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240717.pdf Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle… employment rose at a slight pace in the most recent reporting period… Wages grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts… Prices increased at a modest pace overall…
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJUA rallied smartly
Negative aspects of previous session Fangs and AI stocks plunged; NVDA sank as much as 7.5%; the DJTA declined sharply USUs were only +5/32 at the NYSE close, despite the large S&P 500 Index drop
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are Fangs due to a rebound?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5698.53 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5622.49; 5584.81
Secret Service was told police could not watch building used by Trump rally shooter – WaPo The warning from local law enforcement of insufficient resources adds to questions about whether there was adequate security for the high-stakes presidential campaign visit… Richard Goldinger, the district attorney in Butler County, Pa., where the Trump rally took place, said the Secret Service “was informed that the local police department did not have manpower to assist with securing that building.”… (Local officials snitching on USSS Dir. Cheatle after she blamed local cops!) https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/07/17/secret-service-trump-rally-shooting-homeland-security-investigation/
From FBI/USSS briefing to Senators: 20 mins elapsed between the time he was spotted by snipers & when he fired the shots… (Why didn’t the USSS immediately shield and remove Trump? The USSS agent in charge of calling off the event or removing Trump from danger needs to speak!) @aishahhasnie: Source familiar with SS briefing w/Senators tells me a timeline shared with them reveals SS was aware of a threat about 10 minutes before TRUMP walked on stage and still let him on stage.
@DiedSuddenly_: SHOCKING: FBI identified Trump Sniper Matthew Crooks by extracting his DNA and cross referencing it against a PRE-EXISTING RECORD of his biometric data. How did they already have his DNA on file? https://x.com/DiedSuddenly_/status/1813661237487833473 (Though the FBI said they were using his DNA, we can’t verify if the FBI identified from his DNA)
Secret Service spotted Thomas Crooks at Trump rally THREE HOURS before shooting… and sparked the suspicions of the Secret Service because he was carrying a rangefinder used by hunters to take long shots… At around 3pm on Saturday, Crooks was spotted at the rally’s security screening area and tried to pass through metal detectors with the rangefinder, which is used by shooters to measure distance… The Secret Service watched him but lost track of Crooks when he left the secure area… Law enforcement took a photo of Crooks an hour before the shooting, adding to mounting evidence that they knew of his presence well before he pulled the trigger… https://trib.al/JcG8709
CNN reports, “the search of the car, two remote controlled IEDs, bombs, the remote control for the IEDs found on him on the roof with three, fully loaded magazines of nearly 100 rounds and a bulletproof vest.” https://x.com/CurtisHouck/status/1813345194986643794
@seanmdav: You know that photo of the would-be assassin that’s been circulating since Saturday? It was taken by the Secret Service. And yet somehow, he was allowed to roam the complex, with a gun and a range finder, climb the roof of the closest and most obvious building with a clear shot at Trump, get nice and cozy and comfortable for nearly 10 minutes, and then fire off multiple shots before anyone seemed to care about his presence.https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1813581210766975378
@DC_Draino: NEW EXCLUSIVE video shows the shooter walking around by himself looking up at rooftops near Trump. How was he not detained?! Especially after getting caught with a range finder?! https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1813619453193855394
Why wasn’t Trump pulled from the stage or kept from the stage when ‘they’ knew there was a threat? @Aviation_Intel: Big takeaway… if this 20-year-old kid could do this with no actual training and just a little range time, imagine what a trained operator could do.
@CollinRugg: USSS Cheatle gaslights during an interview… about Trump’s ‘beefed up’ protection.. CNN: “Was every element increased after you learned of this credible threat?” Cheeto: “What we increased was what we felt was appropriate for the former president and for that particular event.” “On that day, we have been increasing the assets and the resources and the staffing that we have been providing to the former president since he was a presidential candidate and then the presumptive nominated. That’s what I can tell you.” CNN: “That sounds like a no.” Cheeto: “I have not saying a no at all. I’m saying that we have continued to increase the resources that we’ve been providing.”
@KanekoaTheGreat: The officer who confronted Thomas Matthew Crooks on the roof radioed a “blanket tactical channel” that there was “an individual on the roof with a weapon” before the assassination attempt on President Trump. Why wasn’t President Trump immediately evacuated? https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1813638058065240366
There should be recordings and a transcript of all security details’ communications, with a time stamp.
Team Biden said Iran plotted to assassinate Trump. Then why did Team Biden reward Iran?
@GOPoversight: Chairman Comer Subpoenas Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle “Initially, the Secret Service committed to your attendance. Subsequently, however, DHS officials appear to have intervened and your attendance is now in question. In addition, since DHS’s intervention, there have been no meaningful updates or information shared with the Committee. The lack of transparency and failure to cooperate with the Committee on this pressing matter by both DHS and the Secret Service further calls into question your ability to lead the Secret Service and necessitates the attached subpoenacompelling your appearance before the Oversight Committee.” https://x.com/GOPoversight/status/1813631007813181517
@KimWexlerMAJD (GOP Rep) MASSIE: Secret Service cell phone records were deleted for January 6? Who was Secretary of Homeland Security when you discovered the records were deleted? THOMPSON: Alejandro Mayorkas. MASSIE: Do you still believe there may have been a violation of the Federal Records Act? THOMPSON: Yes.https://x.com/KimWexlerMAJD/status/1813601282965348761
Today – Fangs are due for a bounce. Beaucoup traders are long these stocks and expiring July call options on these stocks. There could be a determined attempt to force them higher. The problem in calling for a rebound is that sharp moves into the latter days of expiration can generate momentum selling as puts (or calls) go into the money and force professional traders to rapidly adjust hedges.
NQUs and ESUs opened modestly lower Wed. night but surged on the Biden may be gone news. NQUs are +70.00; ESUs are +13.50; and USUs are -11/32 at 20:50 ET.
Expected econ data: Initial Jobless Claims 230k, Continuing Claims 1.856m; July Phil Fed Business Outlook 3.0; June LEI -0.3%; Dallas Fed Pres Logan 13:45 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5396; 100-day MA: 5263; 150-day MA: 5122; 200-day MA: 4938 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,258; 100-day MA: 38,997; 150-day MA: 38,627; 200-day MA: 37,532 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5588.27 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5364.74 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5556.67 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5648.80 triggers a buy signal
Biden campaign surrogates warn Dem. defections having an ‘impact’ on victory chanceshttps://trib.al/juJGsxm
Biden: Trump would believe in climate change if he visited Vegas ‘in his bare feet’ The 81-year-old president made the odd and seemingly ad-libbed musing during an economy-focused speech… “I don’t want to get going here,” he added… He appeared to stick closely to a speech loaded into teleprompters on either side of his lectern — but looked straight ahead as he dared the Republican presidential nominee to lose his shoes in Sin City, indicating the line may not have been prepared by his speechwriters… https://nypost.com/2024/07/16/us-news/biden-trump-would-believe-in-climate-change-if-he-visited-vegas-in-his-bare-feet/
@CBSNews: Ron DeSantis says in his RNC speech that President Biden “lacks the capability to discharge the duties of his office.” “Our enemies do not confine their designs to between 10 a.m. and 4 p.m. …America cannot afford four more years of a ‘Weekend at Bernie’s’ presidency.“
@CurtisHouck: Turning down the temperature? Biden: Trump and Republicans will “do everything – undo everything they NAACP stands for, but now they’re trying to deny it. They’re lying about their Project 2025. They want to deny you freedom, the freedom of the vote, have your vote counting…. They’re going to prosecute political enemies…They want to cut Social Security, Medicare, rip away protection for millions of pre-existing conditions for 400 people…risking people’s lives, costing the government more money…Give the very wealthy a big corporate –corporations a new tax cut.” https://x.com/CurtisHouck/status/1813328282940494185
Brit Hume of Fox, no fan of DJT, said Biden cannot help saying the absurd musing and lies because his mind is shot. Hume opines that the post-debate strategy to resurrect Joe by getting him out in public is backfiring in a big way.
Four in five Americans fear nation spiraling into chaos, new poll findshttps://t.co/0TBpbUxCFm
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: Trump campaign responds re: Vice Presidential debates. “We don’t know who the Democrat nominee for Vice President is going to be, so we can’t lock in a date before their convention. To do so would be unfair to Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, Gretchen Whitmer, or whoever Kamala Harris picks as her running mate.”
@mirandadevine: Ron DeSantis gets the biggest cheer of the night when he arrives on stage at the RNC. Biggest serving of red meat so far. “America can’t afford four more years of a weekend at Bernie’s presidency.” Hits the most popular talking points: Covid vaccine passports but no voter ID. Law and order, not riots and disorder. Down with the administrative state. Dems don’t even know what a woman is. Must be a citizen to vote. Strong borders. Right to life, liberty & the pursuit of happiness. The biggest cheer… when he says, “The woke mind virus is dead and Florida is a solid Republican state”.
Fox: Trump ex-adviser Peter Navarro to speak at RNC hours after release from prison
Secret Service agent wrote she wouldn’t take a bullet for Trump (She was fired.) 01/24/17 Kerry O’Grady said she would rather do “jail time” than take “a bullet” for Trump — who is a “disaster to this country,” she wrote in a post obtained by The Washington Examiner…O’Grady serves as a the Secret Service agent in charge of the Denver district, where she helps coordinate presidential trips to the area… https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/315887-secret-service-agent-i-wouldnt-take-a-bullet-for-trump/
@seanmdav: Federal authorities have indicted the wife (Sue Mi Terry) of left-wing Washington Post columnist @MaxBoot for illegally operating as a foreign agent for South Korea. Boot’s wife previously worked for the CIA. The charges are especially noteworthy given that Boot has spent nearly a decade falsely accusing Trump of being a foreign agent… https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1813689072302362844
@ClayTravis: MSNBC says if Joe Biden recovers from covid it should be seen as a sign of strength, similar to Donald Trump surviving an assassination attempt. They really said this. Live. On air. https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1813723295088537632
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