JULY 25/BLOG:YEN CARRY TRADE COLLAPSES AND THIS CAUSES MASS LIQUIDATION OF EQUITIES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE GOLD CLOSED DOWN $60.45 TO $2415.35 WITH SILVER DOWN $$1.37 TO $27.76 AS THE BANKERS UNLEASHED MASSIVE T.A.S. ON THE COMEX//PLATINUM CLSOED DOWN $13.50 TO $937.40 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $30.35 TO $906.05//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM PETER GRANDICH AND CHRIS POWELL ON THE TOPIC OF PRECIOUS METALS MANIPULATION/COMMODITY REPORT ON COCOA STATING HIGH PRICES ARWE HERE TO STAY/IN EUROPE NESTLE’S WARNS ON EARNINGS AND GUIDANCE//ISRAEL VS HAMAS: HARRIS’ NO SHOW WILL HAUNT HER ON NOV 5 AS JEWS THAT WERE VOTING DEMOCRATIC WILL SWITCH TO REPUBLICAN//ISRAEL WARNS FRANCE THAT IRAN PLOTTING TO KILL ISRAELS AT THE SUMMER GAMES//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATE/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/SLAY NEWS ETC/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//USA DATA: JOBLESS NUMBERS REMAIN HIGH/DURABLE GOODS ORDERS COLLAPSE//PRO PALESTINIAN EURUPTION IN WASHINGTON/BLACK LIVES MATTER FURIOUS AT HARRIS SELECTION WITHOUT HAVING A SINGLE VOTE TO HER NAME: THEY WANT A MINI PRIMARY TO SELECT THE CANDIDATE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR JUNE/2024. CONTRACT: 2 NOTICES FOR 200 OZ or 0.00622 TONNES
total notices so far: 3675 contracts for 367500 Oz (11.430 tonnes)
FOR JULY:
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.015 million
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6079 for 30.395 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.37 AT THE SLV/WOW!! AGAIN???//HUGE MOVEMENTS
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/
// INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.620 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 456.620 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 617 CONTRACTS TO 156,489 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.02 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION DESPITE A SMALL NET LOSS OF 200 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE HAD A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE OI LOSS THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE COMEX GOLD TRADING. WE, AGAIN HAD SOME SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DESPITE THE SMALL LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS THE MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MENTIONED ABOVE WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE LOSS OF OI ON THE TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED 324 T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, ON MONDAY, TUESDAY AND AGAIN LAST NIGHT.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 324 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.02) AND WERE BASICALLY UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 202 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES THE MAJORITY OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO T.A.S. /SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
WE MUST HAVE HAD:
A GOOD SIZED 415 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 28.490 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//JUNE IS THUS 30.730 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //GOOD SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) FAIR SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 324 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL removed 2 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF JULY
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 DAYS, total 17,448 contracts: OR 87.240 MILLION OZ (970 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 87.24 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 87.240 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 617 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY LOSSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A GOOD EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 415 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR JULY OF 28.496 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 30.730 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 202 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE. THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 324 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE MAJOR PORTION OF THE COMEX OI LOSS/// MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND MINOR IF ANY LIQUIDATION OF LONGS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (415) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.015 million OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1365 OI CONTRACTS TO 570,941 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1297 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1365 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $9.20 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR JUNE AT 7.5645 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING 11.636 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $9.20 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2819 OI CONTRACTS (8.768 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES., WITH OUR LONGS TOTALLY OBLIVIOUS TO THE RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE STUPID BANKS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEY REGROUPED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO ORCHESTRATE ANOTHER VICIOUS RAID. GOLD ROSE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTS REALIZED THAT LONGS WERE EXERCISING THEIR CONTRACTS VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE FOR ACTUAL PHYSICAL METAL, MUCH TO THE SHOCK FROM THE FED (THEY ARE SHORT AT A MINIMUM 109 TONNES OF GOLD). LET US SEE HOW THEIR VICIOUS RAID FARES OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGHOUT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4184 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 572,238
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2819 CONTRACTS WITH 1365 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4184 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2819 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A VERY STRONG 3914 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4184 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 1365 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2819 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR JUNE AT 7,5645 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING /JULY 11.636 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///VERY STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3914 CONTRACTS WHICH WILL BE BADLY NEEDED IN THURSDAY’S RAID.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF JULY. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 88,338 CONTRACTS OF 8,833,800 OZ OR 274.76 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4907 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 274.76 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 274.76 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 7.46% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 274.76 TONNES (WILL BE A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 617 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,489 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 415 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 415 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 415 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 617 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 415 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 202 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.01 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $0.02 LOSS IN PRICE …THE MAJORITY OF THE OI LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER/T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 PTS OR 0.52% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 306.08 PTS OR 1.77% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1,285.34 OR 3.28%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.36%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,184 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2187/ Oil DOWN TO 76.61dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.46Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1365 CONTRACTS TO 570,941 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.20 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. THE LONGS COULDN’T CARE LESS WITH THE ATTEMPTED RAID ORCHESTRATED BY THE CROOKS. CENTRAL BANKS ARE PATIENT. THEY WERE WAITING FOR THE ATTACK OCCURRING EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THEY ACCUMULATED THEIR LONG PURCHASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY ESPECIALLY WHEN THE PRICE HIT BELOW 2400. THEY CONTINUED THEIR PURCHASES AND THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AT THE END OF THE WEDNESDAY SESSION. THE REASON FOR THE LOSS IN COMEX IS DUE TO SPREADERS LIQUIDATING AS WELL AS T.A.S LIQUIDATION. THUS:
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED AND MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE SHORTS ARE ABANDONING SHIP: THEY WILL NOW REGROUP AND RAID WHEN THERE IS LITTLE COUNTERPARTY. THE RAID ORCHESTRATED FOR THURSDAY WILL BE VICIOUS.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF JULY.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4184 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST2833 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4184 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2819 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4116 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1365 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.20/WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SIZED 4184 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: JULY (11.6360 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.636 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $9.20 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS, EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A FAIR SIZED GAIN OF 2819 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO EARLY SPREADER LIQUIDATION/T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AS THE SHORTS CONTINUE TO RUN FROM THE HILLS,SENSING DANGER FROM THEIR STUPID SHORTING . THE T.A.S. ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE “PUT INTO THE BANK” TO BE USED AT A LATER DATE AT THE COLLUSIVE CHOOSING OF OUR BANKERS.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 8.768 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR JULY (7.5645 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 11.636 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR JULY: 11.636 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.20
WE HAVE REMOVED 1297 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2819 CONTRACTS OR 2819000 OZ (8.768 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3675 notices 367,500 oz 11.430 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposits:
Into Brinks 48,766.07 oz (real gold)
total deposits 48,766.07 oz
withdrawals: 0
i
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS nil oz
Adjustment 1
b) dealer to customer Brinks : 13,599.873 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of JULY we have an oi of 68 contracts having LOST 16 contracts. We had 16 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 0 contracts or an additional NIL oz will stand at the comex (0.0000 tonnes)
AUGUST LOST 39,460 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 144,001 CONTRACTS
SEPT. GAINED 117 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1420.
OCTOBER GAINED 3010 CONTRACTS UP TO 51,453 CONTRACTS
We had 2 contracts filed for today representing 200 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for July /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3675) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY 68( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz per contract( equals 374,100 OZ OR 11.636 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the JULY contract month: No of notices filed so far (3675 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of JULY (68 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2) x 100 oz which equals 374,100 oz (11.636 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR JULY: 11.636 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NOT VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total pledged gold: 1,677,188.801 oz 52.167 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,964,341.02 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,156,320.108 ( 253.69 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,808,020.108 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,479,132 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 201.52 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
JULY 25/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE JULY 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
585,095.005oz
Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
640,766.116 oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)
3 CONTRACT(S) (.015 million OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
67 contracts (0.335 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
6079 Contracts (30.395 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) into CNT 640,766.044 oz
total customer deposit 640,766.044 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 132.563million oz/303.163million or 43.54%
adjustment:0
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Delaware 585,095.005 oz
total withdrawal: 585,095.005 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.377 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 303.163 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR JULY:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF JULY/2024 OI: 70 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 15 CONTRACT(S). WE HAD 15 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL NIL OZ WILL STAND AT THE COMEX
AUG, SAW A LOSS OF 168 CONTRACTS TO 1106
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 1548 CONTRACTS TO 118,259
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 0.015 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 60,212 good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in JULY we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6079 x 5,000 oz = 30.395 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of JULY( x70) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the JULY/2024 contract month: 6079 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of JULY (70)x number of notices served upon today minus (3)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the JULY contract month equates to 30.730 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 30.730 million oz.
There are 69.377 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 841.74 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
JULY 24 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 456.67 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
A global equity crisis is leading at the margin to liquidation of speculative long positions in gold and silver futures. It looks like a crisis is just starting.
After declines in gold and silver prices in the second half of last week, this week started on a steady note, before heading south yesterday afternoon. In early morning trade in New York today (Thursday), gold was $2370, down $30 from last Friday, and silver at $27.60 was down $1.60.
The reason for this sudden development has little to do with gold and silver per se but is due to a developing panic in equities. While the US tech bubble was running out of steam, the rot set in in Japan, with the Nikkei falling over 10% since 11 July. At the same time, the yen has rallied strongly, both moves shown in our next charts.
Japanese institutions faced substantial losses on their domestic portfolios, and the rally in the yen also imposes losses on their foreign investments. It is hardly surprising that they are panic sellers of Japanese equities and US equities alike.
Other markets Japanese investors are known to be long include France and Italy, whose major indices have also fallen, 2% and 2.5% respectively this morning.
Since US equities peaked last week, the S&P 500 Index has fallen nearly 5%, with large caps badly hit. Consequently, hedge funds geared to rising tech stocks have been forced to liquidate long positions, and these are often the same players in the Managed Money category in Comex gold and silver contracts.
The first whiff of distress sees buyers vanish and the bullion banks in the Swaps category are taking the opportunity to mark paper market values down. At the same time buyers of bullion sense that this distress will provide a buying opportunity at lower prices, and at the margin will be withdrawing their bids. But when buyers do return, it is likely to turbocharge silver. The gold/silver ratio has risen to 85 on silver’s markdown (for that’s what it is). This is our next chart.
There is no knowing how long or how deep the panic in equities will go. But at a guess, it won’t be long before the gathering speculation is of crisis and that the Fed will need to reduce interest rates urgently to stop it. At that point in time, foreign holders of dollars are likely to turn sellers of dollars more aggressively, perhaps buying other major currencies (including the rising yen) but particularly gold, silver and base metals.
This is making sense of China’s policy of stockpiling commodities. The Economist and other media have recently reported buying of oil and grain beyond her consumption needs, as well as copper and other metals. Speculative explanations abound, but none have twigged that it’s about dumping dollars and euros as much, if not more than acquiring commodities.
In the very short term, for gold and silver prices it looks like being a volatile, rough ride. But perhaps this is the widely expected crisis. If so, it didn’t start with a bank run or a debt crisis, but a good old fashioned equity crash. The rest follows, and as safe havens from a major credit crisis gold and silver as money without counterparty risk will shine.
end
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
An excellent discussion on how the precious metals prices have been manipulated for over 25 years
(Chris Powell/Grandich)
Market analyst Peter Grandich discusses GATA’s work with secretary/treasurer
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-07-24 18:17 Section: Daily Dispatches
6:19p ET Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst and monetary metals advocate Peter Grandich today discussed with your secretary/treasurer GATA’s 25 years of exposing manipulation of the monetary metals markets, work that has led to central banks restoring and increasing their gold reserves, as well as to the disappearance of market analysts who ridiculed assertions of market rigging only to find them documented extensively year after year.
Also discussed was your secretary/treasurer’s recent compilation of evidence that the U.S. government is behind the continuing suppression of silver prices:
Why is the price of gold rising if the global economy is not in recession and inflation is under control? This is a question often heard in investment circles, and I will try to answer it.
We must begin by clarifying the question. It is true that inflation is slowly decreasing, but we cannot say that it is fully under control. Let us remember that the latest Consumer Price Index data in the United States was 3 percent annualized and that in the eurozone it is 2.6 percent, with eight countries publishing data above 3 percent, including Spain. This is why central banks are maintaining rates or lowering them very cautiously.
However, monetary policy is far from being restrictive. Money supply growth is picking up, the European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining its “anti-fragmentation mechanism,” and the Federal Reserve is continuing to inject money through the liquidity window. We can say, without a doubt, that monetary policy is accommodative.
At the time of writing, the price of gold is above $2,400 an ounce, up 16.5 percent between January and July 19, 2024. In the same period, gold has performed better than the S&P 500, the Stoxx 600 in Europe, and the MSCI Global. In fact, over the past five years, gold has outperformed not only the European and global stock markets but also the S&P 500, with only the Nasdaq surpassing the precious metal.
This is a period of recovery and strong expansion of the stock markets. On the one hand, the market is discounting the central banks’ continued accommodative and expansionary policies, even with high debt monetization, given the elevated deficits in the United States and developed countries. That is, the market assumes that the Federal Reserve and the ECB will not be able to maintain the reduction of their balance sheets in the face of rising debt and public spending in many economies. As a result, gold protects many investors against the erosion of the currency’s purchasing power, i.e., inflation, without the extreme volatility of Bitcoin. If the market discounts further monetary expansion to cover the accumulated deficits, it is normal for the investor to seek protection with gold, which has centuries of history as an alternative to fiduciary money and offers a low-volatility hedge against currency debasement.
Another important factor is the central bank’s purchase of gold. JP Morgan is credited with the phrase, “Gold is money and everything else is credit.” All the world’s central banks include treasury bonds from countries that serve as the global reserve currency in their asset base. This allows central banks around the world to stabilize their currencies. When we read that a central bank buys or sells dollars or euros, it is not making transactions with physical currency but with government bonds. Hence, as the market price of government bonds has fallen between 2022 and 2024, many of these central banks are facing latent losses or a drop in the value of their assets. What is the best way to strengthen a central bank’s balance sheet, thereby diversifying and reducing exposure to fiat currencies? Purchase gold.
The rising purchase of gold by central banks is an essential factor justifying the recent increase in demand for the precious metal. Central banks, especially in China and India, are trying to reduce their dependence on the dollar or the euro to diversify their reserves. However, this does not mean de-dollarization. Far from it.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks accelerated their gold purchases to more than 1,000 tonnes per year in 2022 and 2023. This means that monetary authorities account for almost a quarter of the annual demand for gold during a period when supply and production have not grown significantly. The ratio of output to demand stands at 0.9 in June 2024, according to Morgan Stanley.
Global official gold reserves have increased by 290 net metric tons in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2000, according to the World Gold Council, 69 percent higher than the five-year quarterly average (171 metric tons).
The People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of India are the biggest buyers as they aim to balance their reserves, adding more gold without compromising their dollar position. According to Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, and the World Gold Council, China has been increasing its gold purchases for 17 months, and since 2022, it has shot up its reserves by 16 percent, coinciding with the increase in global polarization and the trade war.
That does not mean de-dollarization, as the People’s Bank of China has 4.6 percent of its total reserves in gold. U.S. Treasury bonds are the most important asset, accounting for more than 50 percent of the Chinese central bank’s assets. Its goal is to raise gold reserves to 14 percent, according to local media. This would imply a significant annual purchase of gold for years.
India’s central bank increased its gold reserves by 19 metric tons during the first quarter. Other central banks that are diversifying and buying more gold than ever are the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Central Bank of Qatar, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Oman, according to the sources cited above. During this period, both the Czech National Bank and the National Bank of Poland increased their gold reserves in Europe, reaching the highest level since 2021. In these cases, the aim is to balance the exposure in the asset base with more gold and less eurozone government bonds.
The goal of this central bank trend is to increase the weight of an asset that does not fluctuate with the price of government bonds. It is not about de-dollarization but about balancing the balance sheet. For years, the policy of central banks has been to reduce their gold holdings, and now they must rebalance after suffering two years of latent losses on their government bond holdings. In fact, one could say that the world’s central banks anticipate a widespread erosion of the purchasing power of reserve currencies due to the saturation of fiscal and monetary policies, and for that reason, they need more gold.
After years of thinking that money can be printed without limits and without creating inflation, monetary authorities are trying to return to logic and have more gold on their balance sheets. At the same time, many expected that the trade war between China and the United States and global polarization would be reversed in the past four years, and the opposite has happened. It has accelerated. Now the latent losses in the sovereign bond asset portfolio are leading all these central banks to buy more gold and try to protect themselves from new bursts of inflationary pressures.
In an era of high correlation between assets and perpetual monetary expansion, gold serves as a low-volatility, low-correlation, and strong return addition to any prudent portfolio.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
Cocoa ,high prices still climbing and this will accentuate global slowdown
(zerohedge)
Swiss Chocolatier Warns High Cocoa Prices Resulting In Global Slowdown In Chocolate Market
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Chocolate maker Lindt & Spruengli AG has warned the global chocolate market is under strain due to high prices. Reducing demand is necessary to prevent cocoa prices from surging once again amid persistent cocoa supply issues stemming from adverse weather conditions impacting some of the world’s largest farms in West Africa.
Bloomberg reports that Lindt CEO Adalbert Lechner told investors during an earnings call on Tuesday that the global chocolate market was experiencing a slowdown for some products due to rising cocoa prices. He said price hikes for consumers partially offset higher cocoa bean costs for the Swiss chocolatier and confectionery company, adding that cost inflation will ramp up into next year.
“It is quite difficult to predict where the futures market will go from here and how quickly we will see a further correction,” Lechner told investors.
He said, “The speed and the extent of the market correction will also depend a lot on the impact of the overall volume demand in the chocolate market.”
Cocoa futures in New York have been oscillating in what some call a ‘symmetrical triangle’ since prices peaked at $12,000 a ton in April. This followed a massive run-up early this year fueled by a historic shortage in West Africa due to poor harvests. The $8,000 level is a price magnet as traders wait for new harvest or demand data.
“It is still early in the season” to predict harvest figures, “which may keep the market in a back-and-forth pattern,” according to a Tuesday ADM Investor Services note.
Cocoa prices have been supported by better-than-expected demand and poor harvest figures. Some analysts believe prices might need to go higher to achieve proper demand destruction.
END
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 PTS OR 0.52% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 306.08 PTS OR 1.77% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1,285.34 OR 3.28%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 1.36%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed UP TO 7,184 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2187/ Oil DOWN TO 76.61dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 80.46Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2184
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2187
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 PTS OR 0.52 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 306.08 PTS OR 1.77%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1285.34 PTS OR 3.28%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.98 EURO RISES TO 1.0848 UP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1,059 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 152.39 JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE END OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR Brent this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4010/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.778 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.236%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.410
3j Gold at $2370.90//Silver at: 27.61 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 98/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.25
3m oil into the 77 dollar handle for WTI and 80 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.39/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.059% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8781 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9522 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.223 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.496 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.361 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.07…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.1520 DOWN 2 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.353 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop As Japan, European Stocks Tumble On AI Bubble Bursting Fears
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 08:19 AM
US equity futures are lower but well off their worst levels, after a rout in Japan sent the Nikkei tumbling, hammered gold and crypto as the yen carry trade unwound – if only until next week when the BOJ inevitably disappoints yet again. As of 7:50am, S&P futures were 0.1% lower, while Nasdaq futs dropped 0.2%, with tech giants are mixed pre-market trading: AAPL -43bp, NVDA -20bp, AMZN +23bp, GOOG/L +27bp. Wednesday’s session was a bloodbath: the index finally broke a 356 day streak without a down 2% (or greater) move – the longest streak since 2007, when it went 943 days without a down >2% move – as the S&P fell -2.3% (worst day since Dec ’22), NDX fell -3.7% (worst session since Oct ’22), Mag Seven -6% (worst session since Nov ’22), AI winners down -5% to -10%, and Index vol spike (VIX > 18 for first time since April). Bond yields are 5-8bp led by the front end. Commodities are weaker: WTI fell -1.8%; base metals are mostly lower. The USD is lower but also well off its worst levels. Today, the macro data focus will be 2Q data release: Consensus expects GDP to print 2.0% QoQ saar vs. 1.4% prior, driven by a rebound in personal consumption to 2.0% vs 1.5% in Q1.
In premarket trading, IBM shares rose 4.3% after the IT services company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations, with the company’s software division notably strong. IBM also said its generative AI book has grown to more than $2 billion. Ford plunged -13% after the automaker reported adjusted earnings per share for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Analysts note that unwelcome warranty headwinds drove the company’s significant miss. Chipotle shares jumped 3.5% after the burrito chain reported second-quarter comparable sales that beat consensus expectations. Analysts said traffic growth was strong, and highlighted management taking action to address negative publicity over portion size. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Day One Biopharmaceuticals shares gain 9.2% after Ipsen enters into an exclusive ex-US licensing agreement with the biotechnology company to commercialize tovorafenib for the most common childhood brain tumor.
Edwards Life shares tumble 23% after the maker of heart valves reported sales for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. The medical-devices company also said it has agreed to buy JenaValve Technology and Endotronix for about $1.2 billion.
Las Vegas Sands shares fall 3.5% after the casino operator reported net revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. Analysts noted weakness in Macau and disruptions caused by casino renovations as headwinds.
Lululemon shares fall 2.0% after Citigroup cut its recommendation on the athleisure apparel maker to neutral from buy. The analyst notes that the active-apparel category has slowed this year and is expected to cool further.
Viking Therapeutics shares climb 18% after the drug developer said it is advancing its weight-loss shot into a late-stage trial. The biotech also said a mid-stage trial of its obesity pill will start in the fourth quarter.
As the global economy slows, traders have also started ramping up bets that the Fed will have to cut interest rates sooner than expected to sustain the US economy. Yields on two-year Treasuries dropped seven basis points to 4.35%. The yen rallied more than 1% on bets the rate gap between Japan and the US will shrink.
“We are getting disappointment after disappointment,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. “The message is that maybe growth is weaker than the US data led us to think, and maybe it’s time to reshuffle allocations away from US large tech.”
Today, the US will release GDP data for Q2 as well as initial jobless claims later on Thursday. Concern about the economy kicked into high gear on Wednesday after former New York Fed President William Dudley called for lower borrowing costs — preferably at next week’s gathering. Such a move could be worrisome as it would indicate officials rushing to avoid a recession, some analysts said. That said, the most dramatic moves have been in high-flying chipmakers, with investors taking profits after this year’s massive rally. STMicroelectronics NV and BE Semiconductor Industries NV both sank more than 10% in European trading.
“If there was a bubble in the AI and Magnificent 7-part of the market, then last night saw it pop,” said Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown.
European stocks tumbled on the busiest day of the corporate earnings season, following steep declines on Wall Street and in Asia. The Stoxx 600 is down 1.4%, led lower by declines in media and technology shares after underwhelming reports from a slew of companies. Results from Nestle SA and Gucci owner Kering SA showed consumers are cutting spending on everything from food to luxury handbags. All European market are lower with French stocks on the verge of a correction. Luxury & Brands, Periphery Banks, EU Resilient Consumer and EU Semis are among the worst underperformers. The broad weakness was driven by earnings disappointments, particularly on UMG, KER and STM. Germany IFO prints 87.0 vs. 89.0 survey vs. 88.6 prior. Here are the most notable European movers:
Roche shares rise as much as 4.4% after reporting first-half results that impressed analysts, with Jefferies calling the increased guidance for the year a “positive surprise.”
Sanofi shares gain as much 4.2% after the French drugmaker reported strong 2Q earnings and raised guidance, with analysts attributing the outperformance in part to strong sales of its key drug Dupixent.
Unilever shares advance as much as 6%, reaching the highest since Nov. 2020, after the consumer-goods giant reported 1H underlying operating margin that came ahead of estimates.
Indivior shares rise as much as 19%, their best day in five months, lifted by the pharmaceutical firm’s new $100 million share buyback and a preliminary settlement related to opioid litigation.
Michelin shares gain as much as 2.3% after the tiremaker’s results were welcomed by analysts, who said pricing, mix and cost discipline were able to offset challenges in the form of lower volumes.
UCB shares gains as much as 2.2%, rising to a record high, after the Belgian biotech firm’s plaque psoriasis drug Bimzelx contributed to the strong first-half results.
Universal Music Group shares fall as much as 30%, the most on record, following second-quarter results which Citi says “undermine” what had been seen as defensive growth credentials.
Stellantis shares fall as much as 13% in Milan, the most since March 2020, after the carmaker’s earnings plunged in the first half of 2024. Morgan Stanley says free cash flow was a key disappointment.
Kering shares slump as much as 10% to a seven-year low on disappointing results, which included a warning that profit is set to plunge in the second half of the year.
Nestle shares drop as much as 4.8% to touch a four-year low, after the consumer-goods giant lowered its FY sales outlook and reported 1H organic revenue that fell short of expectations.
STMicroelectronics shares fall as much as 9.5% after reducing full-year outlook for a second consecutive quarter, citing a prolonged slump in demand for chips used in cars.
BE Semi shares slump 15% after the company missed estimates on third-quarter guidance, dragged by a slow recovery in chip assembly market, as flagged by peer ASMPT Wednesday.
J. Martins shares sink as much as 15% to a three-year low as 2Q like-for-like sales in its flagship Biedronka grocery chain in Poland declined three times faster than expected by analysts.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks also slumped following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst declines since late-2022 owing to disappointment following some mega-cap earnings and a surprise contraction in US Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 was dragged lower by notable losses in tech, while miners also suffered after several quarterly production updates and lower underlying commodity prices. Nikkei 225 underperformed and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level after shedding over 1,000 points with pressure from currency strength and prospects of a BoJ rate hike at next week’s policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the broad selling in the region and fell towards the 17,000 level where support held, while the mainland index also retreated albeit to a lesser extent than regional peers after the PBoC’s surprise MLF operation and 20bps rate cut to the 1-year MLF rate with markets seemingly unimpressed by China’s piecemeal stimulus efforts.
In FX, the yen leads G-10 FX, rising 1% against the greenback as the USD/JPY declined as low as 152.23, the lowest since May 3. The pair has lost about 6% since its peak earlier this month as the carry trade has partially unwound as momentum has reversed. Dollar demand from Japanese importers and fix-related purchases were met with selling by leveraged accounts, while rising 2-year JGB yields and falling Treasury yields further eroded the dollar bid, according to Asia-based FX traders. The Swiss franc is not far behind with a 0.6% gain. The Aussie dollar and Norwegian krone are the weakest, falling 0.8%. The Norwegian krone dropped to its weakest level against the euro in more than a year amid falling oil prices and dampened demand for riskier assets.
In rates, treasuries were near session highs in early US trading Thursday, with US 10-year yields falling 5bps to 4.23% although tightening took place across the curve led by short-dated tenors, further steepening the curve. Front-end-led rally pushed 2-year yield to within 11.5bp of lower 10-year yield, least inverted level since October 2023, and 5-year yield as much as 43bp lower than the 30-year, widest gap since May 2023. The curve-steepening bout unleashed in late June by US presidential election outlook shift to favor Donald Trump winning in November was renewed Wednesday by mounting expectations for Fed rate cuts as US stock benchmarks slid. Weakness in stock benchmarks globally stoked haven demand, while market-implied expectations for Fed rate cuts this year increased further. Gains may complicate auction of 7-year notes at 1pm New York time. Bunds extended gains after Germany’s business outlook unexpectedly fell. The WI 7-year yield around 4.135% is lower than auction results since January and about 14bp lower than last month’s result; earlier this week, 2- and 5-year auctions drew lowest yields since January with mixed results, but both have richened from auction yield levels
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1.8% to trade near $76.20 a barrel. Spot gold falls $26 to around $2,371/oz.
On today’s calendar we get the first estimate of 2Q GDP, weekly jobless claims and June preliminary durable goods orders (8:30am) and July Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed officials have no scheduled appearances until after the next FOMC meeting ends July 31. Over in Europe, there’s also the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for July, and the Euro Area M3 money supply for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and Bundesbank President Nagel.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,470.25
STOXX Europe 600 down 1.3% to 505.72
MXAP down 1.5% to 179.71
MXAPJ down 0.9% to 559.25
Nikkei down 3.3% to 37,869.51
Topix down 3.0% to 2,709.86
Hang Seng Index down 1.8% to 17,004.97
Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,886.74
Sensex little changed at 80,119.66
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.3% to 7,861.21
Kospi down 1.7% to 2,710.65
German 10Y yield -3 bps at 2.41%
Euro little changed at $1.0847
Brent Futures down 0.6% to $81.20/bbl
Gold spot down 1.0% to $2,374.61
US Dollar Index down 0.19% to 104.20
Top Overnight News
US President Biden said America is to choose between hope and hate, optimism and negativity, while he added that he needs to unite the party and it is time to pass the torch but will continue his duties as President for the remainder of his term. Furthermore, he also commented that Vice President Harris is experienced, tough and capable.
China continues to lower its policy rates, taking its 1-year MLF rate down 20bp to 2.3%, as the gov’t works to bolster growth. BBG
China smartphone shipments +10% in Q2; Apple (AAPL) China sales fell 2% Y/Y in Q2, Huawei sales +41%: Canalys.
Five of China’s major state-owned banks cut deposit rates to cushion a hit to their already record low margins after this week’s surprise lowering of lending benchmarks to bolster stuttering economic growth. RTRS
The yen surged toward 152 on bets the interest-rate gap between Japan and the US is finally set to shrink. Some 90% of BOJ watchers see a risk of it hiking on July 31, even if that isn’t their base case, and the Fed faces growing calls to start cutting the same day. The move hit Japan’s Nikkei 225 and undermined assets from gold to bitcoin. BBG
Germany’s IFO survey for Jul fell a bit short of expectations, with the Expectations index coming in at 86.9 (vs. the Street 89.3 and down from 88.8 in June). BBG
Negotiations on a ceasefire-for-hostages deal in the Gaza conflict appear to be in their closing stages and U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will discuss remaining gaps on Thursday, a senior U.S. official said on Wednesday. RTRS
US GDP growth probably accelerated to an annualized 2% last quarter from 1.4%. But discretionary spending growth has cooled, and demand may moderate further in the second half as the labor market weakens — tipping the Fed toward easing, Bloomberg Economics said. BBG
Harris could have her VP selection in the next two weeks, and the frontrunners remain Cooper (NC), Shapiro (PA), and Kelly (AZ). CNN
Boeing’s plea deal with the DOJ over 737 Max crashes includes at least $243.6 million in fines and three years probation. RTRS
STMicro cut its annual revenue outlook for a second time, and BE Semi issued weak third-quarter guidance. BBG
Earnings
Ford Motor Co (F) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.47 (exp. 0.68), Revenue 47.8bln (exp. 44.02bln). FY adj. EBIT view 10-12bln (exp. 11.23bln). FY CapEx view affirmed between USD 8.0-9.0bln. Shares -13.5% pre-market
International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.43 (exp. 2.20), Revenue 15.77bln (exp. 15.62bln). Shares +4% pre-market
Nissan Motors (7201 JT) Q1 (JPY): Recurring profit 65.13bln (-60.9% Y/Y), Net profits 28.56bln (-72.9%); Cuts FY guidance; Cuts FY24/25 China sales forecast to 777k (prev. 800k), cuts US forecast to 1.41mln (prev. 1.43mln) Shares -6.9% in Asia trade
STMicroelectronics (STM FP) Q2 (EUR): Revenue 3.232bln (exp. 3.204bln), Q2 gross margin 40.1% (exp. 40%). Sees Q3 gross margin 38% (exp. 40.9%), sees Q3 net revenue 38% (exp. 40.9%). Cuts FY24 revenue guidance to between EUR 13.2-13.7bln (exp. 14.3bln). Shares -12.5% in European trade
Nestle (NESN SW) H1 (CHF): Sales 45bln (exp. 45.58bln), Net 5.6bln (exp. 6.08bln), EPS 2.16, +1.8%. In H1, repurchased CHF 2.4bln shares as part of the three-year CHF 20bln buyback which began in 2022. FY Guidance: Organic revenue growth of at least +3% (prev. guided +4%). Shares -4% in European trade
Roche (ROG SW) H1 (CHF): Revenue 29.8bln (exp. 29.911bln), Net Income 6.697bln (exp. 7.523bln); Outlook for 2024 earnings raised; Roche expects to further increase its dividend in CHF. Shares +2.5% in European trade
Anglo American (AAL LN) H1 (USD): Adj. EBITDA 4.9bln (exp. 4.51bln). Adj. EPS 1.06 (exp. 0.90). Adj. Profits 1.29bln (exp. 1.07bln). Decision to temporarily slowdown Woodsmith Crop nutrients project resulted in a USD 1.6bln impairment. Expect to substantially reduce overhead and other non op. costs in phases. Shares -1% in European trade
AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q2 (USD): Revenue 12.452bln (12.628bln), Core EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.9595); Guidance for FY 2024 increased, with Total Revenue and Core EPS anticipated to grow by a mid teens % (prev. a low double-digit to low teens percentage). Shares -3% in European trade
BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI IM) Q2 (EUR): Revenue 151mln (exp. 152mln), Orders 313mln, Net 41mln. Q3 Guidance: Revenue seen flat, Gross Margin between 64-66% (prev. 65%). CEO estimates that around 50% of orders over the last 12-months were AI-related. Shares -11.5% in European trade
TotalEnergies (TTE FP) Q2 (USD): Net Income 4.7bln (exp. 4.9bln), adj. EBITDA 11.1bln (exp. 11.6bln), adj. EPS 1.98 (exp. 2.06). Refining utilisation rate is expected to be in excess of 85%. Start up of Anchor, within the Gulf of Mexico, expected in Q3. “Sales of petroleum products in the second quarter 2024 were down year-on-year by 2%, mainly due to lower diesel demand in Europe that was partially compensated by higher activity in the aviation business.” Shares -1.5% in European trade
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were negative following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst declines since late-2022 owing to disappointment following some mega-cap earnings and a surprise contraction in US Manufacturing PMI. ASX 200 was dragged lower by notable losses in tech, while miners also suffered after several quarterly production updates and lower underlying commodity prices. Nikkei 225 underperformed and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level after shedding over 1,000 points with pressure from currency strength and prospects of a BoJ rate hike at next week’s policy meeting. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the broad selling in the region and fell towards the 17,000 level where support held, while the mainland index also retreated albeit to a lesser extent than regional peers after the PBoC’s surprise MLF operation and 20bps rate cut to the 1-year MLF rate with markets seemingly unimpressed by China’s piecemeal stimulus efforts.
Top Asian News
PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 1-year MLF loans with the rate lowered to 2.30% vs prev. 2.50%.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says will not comment on daily share moves; will not comment on FX moves; reiterates it is important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamental; closely watching FX moves.
China’s State Planner says it is to lower the threshold for the use of ultra-long special bond for investing in equipment upgrade projects. Issuing a notice to increase support for equipment upgrades and consumer good trade-ins. Lifts subsidies for car trade ins to up to CNY 20k/vehicle. Allocating CNY 300bln in ultra-long-term treasury bonds.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-1.2%) opened the session on the backfoot in fitting with the risk-averse mood seen across markets overnight. A slew of poor earnings only fuelled the pressure seen in Europe with indices heading lower since the cash open, where they currently reside. European sectors are entirely in the red. Healthcare fares better than the rest, given some of the post-earning strength in Sanofi, Roche and Lonza. Tech follows closely behind, after poor BE Semiconductor and STMicroelectronics results, but also in a continuation of the prior day’s price action. Autos are also hampered by significant losses in Renault and Stellantis. US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.2%, RTY U/C) are mixed, seemingly taking a breather following the hefty losses seen in the prior session. In terms of pre-market movers, Ford (-13.5%) slips after significantly missing on the bottom line, whilst IBM (+4%) gains after strong earnings and improving guidance.
Top European News
European Stocks Hit by Weak Earnings on Busiest Reporting Day
SocGen, BofA Say Time to Buy Norway’s Krone as Rout Overdone
Julius Baer Slumps as Profit Fall Signals Tough Benko Recovery
Ipsos Slides After Full-Year Revenue Guidance Misses Estimates
German Business Expectations Fall, Deepening Rebound Concerns
Getlink Shares Rise as Citi Notes Positive Margin Performance
TotalEnergies’ Profit Drops More Than Expected on Refining
FX
Similar price action for the USD as Wednesday with the dollar softer against havens such as CHF and JPY but firmer against risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD.
EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD but only marginally so. 1.0825 from Wednesday marks the recent base for the pair. There is a slew of DMAs to the downside in the pair with the 200 DMA at 1.0817.
GBP is seeing shallow losses vs. the USD but off worst levels after briefly breaching Wednesday’s low at 1.2878.
JPY has extended its upside vs. the USD to a 4th consecutive session with the Yen benefitting from risk-aversion, efforts by officials to guide the currency lower, an unwind of carry trades and mounting expectations of a hawkish BoJ at next week’s meeting.
AUD/USD has now extended its downtrend to a 10th consecutive session as global risk sentiment continues to suffer and questions remain over the health of the Chinese economy.
CNH edgins out gains vs. the USD in a market which is characterised by a reversal in recent popular trades with long USD/CNH having been one of them. From a fundamental standpoint, the PBoC surprised markets with a 20bps reduction to the 1yr MLF rate overnight.
Fixed Income
USTs are benefitting from the tepid risk tone with the sell-everything/deleveraging narrative not yet extending to the fixed income space. Thus far, as high as 111-04 to within half a tick of yesterday’s best. Data slate is busy today with focus on US IJCs and Q2 PCE, with a 7yr auction thereafter.
Bunds are bouncing from the US auction-induced dip that occurred late on Wednesday and benefitting from the broader macro tone. The German Ifo survey for July was weaker-than-expected, which helped to lift Bunds to a 132.78 high.
Gilts are towards session highs of 98.21; specifics for the UK light and instead Gilts have been caught up in the broader risk-off tone that is continuing from the Wall St. handover.
Commodities
A downbeat morning for the crude complex amidst the broader risk aversion seen across markets, and in a continuation of the weakness seen in prices on the back of sluggish Chinese demand, with prices unfazed by the surprise PBoC MLF rate cut overnight. Brent Sep in a USD 80.95-81.60/bbl range.
Precious metals are lower across the board despite the softer Dollar and risk aversion amid a broader downturn in metals in what is seemingly an unwind of winning trades. Spot gold slipped from a USD 2,401.31/oz high, through the psychological figure and to a current USD 2,365.91/oz low.
Base metals also trade on the backfoot amid the broader risk aversion and ongoing pessimism regarding Chinese demand.
Russian Deputy PM Novak expects the JMMC meeting on August 1st to be constructive, aims to fulfil OPEC+ deal, will compensate for overproduction OPEC+ partners are satisfied with compensation schedule. Russia aims to fulfil OPEC+ deal, will compensate for overproduction. Constantly in touch with OPEC+ partners, talked with OPEC+ representative last week. Russia has no friction with OPEC+ over exceeding production quotas. Not planning additional measures to normalize the situation with AI-95 petrol supplies, difficulties are temporary. Russia is not going to ban diesel exports, its production is extensive, the situation is stable.
Geopolitics: Middle East
US senior official said Gaza ceasefire negotiations appear to be in their closing stages and negotiators have worked out a pretty detailed text of the arrangements for how a Gaza hostage deal would work in which the initial phase of the hostage deal would see women, men aged over 50 and the sick and wounded hostages released over a 42-day period. Furthermore, the official said the remaining obstacles to a Gaza hostage deal are bridgeable and there will be activity on this issue in the coming week, while US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu will talk about how to close final gaps holding up a Gaza hostage deal during their meeting on Thursday.
Geopolitics: Other
Ukrainian Navy spokesman said Russia has pulled all its vessels out of the Sea of Azov, according to Reuters.
Russian Foreign Ministry says experts from Russia and the US have met to discuss Ukraine although the ministry does not see such contacts as practical because the US side is biased, according to RIA
US Event Calendar
08:30: 2Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.0%, prior 1.4%
2Q Personal Consumption, est. 2.0%, prior 1.5%
2Q GDP Price Index, est. 2.6%, prior 3.1%
2Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.7%, prior 3.7%
08:30: June Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
June Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
June Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior -0.6%
June Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior -0.6%
08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 238,000, prior 243,000
July Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.87m
11:00: July Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -8
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets saw a massive slump yesterday, as the combination of weak earnings and poor data hit investor sentiment. That led to some very big losses, with the Magnificent 7 (-5.88%) posting its worst day since September 2022, leaving it in technical correction territory after falling over -10% from its record just two weeks earlier. And in turn, the concentration of that group drove equities down more broadly, with the S&P 500 (-2.31%) seeing its biggest fall since December 2022. It’s also the first -2% decline for the index since February 2023, ending one of the 10 longest runs without one in the S&P’s history. In the meantime, with the mood becoming increasingly negative, speculation about future rate cuts mounted further, and the 2s10s yield curve steepened to its least inverted level since July 2022, at just -15.1bps by the close. So it was a rough day all round, and we’ve got earnings from four more of the Magnificent 7 next week, so there’s plenty still to navigate over the days ahead.
Now of course, it’s worth noting that markets have been on a historic run higher since last October, so we need to put this decline into some context. Indeed, the S&P 500 is up for 28 of the last 38 weeks, which is something that hasn’t been exceeded since 1989. But given we’ve had that relentless run of gains, in many respects that leaves markets more vulnerable right now, as historically it’s unusual to see such a prolonged run of gains maintained for much longer. On top of that, equity positioning was already elevated by historic standards, and we’re about to enter the toughest part of the year on a seasonal basis, with markets often struggling in the late-summer period. Then add in unusually high political uncertainty, and you’ve got several near-term challenges that make for a pretty tough backdrop.
The initial driver of those losses yesterday were the earnings releases from Tesla and Alphabet after the previous day’s close, meaning that futures were already negative coming into the session. For Tesla (-12.33%), it marked its worst daily performance since September 2020, and even though the share price decline was smaller for Alphabet (-5.04%), it was still its worst day since January. Several other results added to the more negative tone as well, with Visa (-4.01%) posting its worst day since May 2022, while earlier in Europe LVMH was down -4.66% after posting disappointing results the previous evening. And in turn, those losses helped push the VIX index up +3.32pts to 18.04pts, which is its highest level since April when geopolitical tensions were heightened in the Middle East.
Matters then weren’t helped by a fresh batch of underwhelming data. That started in the European session, where the flash PMIs for July came in beneath consensus, which added to fears that the economy was losing momentum into Q3. For instance, the Euro Area composite PMI was down to just 50.1 (vs. 50.9 expected), so barely above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. The German numbers were particularly disappointing, as their composite PMI was back into contractionary territory at 48.7 (vs. 50.6 expected), although to be fair, the UK did surprise on the upside at 52.7 (vs. 52.6 expected). Later on, the US data was also fairly mixed, with new home sales falling to an annualised rate of just 617k in June (vs. 640k expected), which is their lowest in 7 months.
With the deteriorating backdrop, that led to growing anticipation that the Fed would deliver a rate cut at their meeting-after-next in September. Indeed, yesterday saw investors dial up their expectations for cuts this year, with the amount priced in by the Fed’s December meeting up +3.1bps on the day to 65bps. That then led to a decline in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield down to 4.43% by the close, and having traded as low as 4.375% intra-day, its lowest since February. However, bonds did sell off during the US afternoon following a soft 5yr Treasury auction, and the 10yr yield ended the day +3.3bps higher at 4.28%. These moves left the 2s10s curve at just -15.1bps by the close, which is the steepest it’s been since July 2022 in the first few weeks of the current period of inversion. Bear in mind that in recent cycles, a re-steepening back out of inversion has occurred shortly before a recession, so that’s one to keep an eye on given how it’s moved ahead of the past few downturns.
The sense that rate cuts were moving closer was cemented by Bank of Canada’s decision, where they delivered a 25bp rate cut yesterday to 4.5%, in line with expectations. That’s now the second consecutive meeting where they’ve cut rates, and Governor Macklem said in the press conference that “it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy interest rate” if inflation continued to move lower as they forecast. Canadian government bonds outperformed yesterday following the decision, with the 2yr yield down -7.3bps.
Over in Europe, the weak PMIs also led investors to grow more confident that the ECB would cut rates in September. In fact, overnight index swaps were pricing in an 92% chance of a rate cut by the close, up from 78% the previous day. That meant yields on 2yr German (-5.7bps), French (-5.1bps) and Italian (-0.8bps) debt all moved lower. As in the US, this was accompanied by sizeable curve steepening and yields on 10yr bunds (+0.7bps), OATs (+2.1bps) and BTPs (+4.8bps) all moved higher. This left the German 2s10s yield curve at -21.4bps, the steepest since October last year.
The negative tone has continued in Asian markets overnight, with all the major indices losing ground. The Nikkei (-2.58%) is currently on course for its worst day since April, which comes as the Japanese Yen (+0.91%) is currently at its strongest level since April, at 152.50 per US Dollar. In part, that’s been driven by growing expectations that the BoJ might hike rates at their meeting next week, and market pricing has reflected that in recent days. Otherwise, there have been losses for the KOSPI (-1.51%), which follows overnight data showing that South Korean GDP unexpectedly contracted by -0.2% in Q2 (vs. +0.1% expected). But the CSI 300 (-0.59%) and the Shanghai Comp (-0.43%) are putting in a relatively better performance, which comes as the People’s Bank of China announced a 20bp cut in their medium-term lending facility rate, taking it down to 2.3%. Even so, both indices were still at their lowest level since February, and the Hang Seng is also down -1.42%. Looking forward, US equity futures are slightly higher this morning, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.21%.
To the day ahead now, and data from the US includes the Q2 GDP release, along with the weekly initial jobless claims, and the preliminary reading for durable goods orders in June. Over in Europe, there’s also the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany for July, and the Euro Area M3 money supply for June. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, and Bundesbank President Nagel.
2B EUROPEAN REPORT
Risk averse sentiment has hit European equities & Antipodeans, whilst JPY & CHF benefit from safe haven flows; US PCE Prices (Q2) due – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 06:09 AM
European bourses are entirely in the red after a slew of poor earnings; US equity futures are mixed and currently taking a breather from the prior day’s hefty losses
Dollar is weaker vs safe haven currencies, whilst the high beta Antipodeans continue to lag
Bonds benefit from the risk-averse mood, Bunds took a leg higher following weaker-than-expected German Ifo data
Crude is at lows, XAU back below USD 2400/oz & base metals slump
Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, GDP Advance (Q2), PCE Prices Advance (Q2), US IJC, ECB President Lagarde, Supply from the US, Earnings from AbbVie & Willis Towers
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-1.2%) opened the session on the backfoot in fitting with the risk-averse mood seen across markets overnight. A slew of poor earnings only fuelled the pressure seen in Europe with indices heading lower since the cash open, where they currently reside.
European sectors are entirely in the red. Healthcare fares better than the rest, given some of the post-earning strength in Sanofi, Roche and Lonza. Tech follows closely behind, after poor BE Semiconductor and STMicroelectronics results, but also in a continuation of the prior day’s price action. Autos are also hampered by significant losses in Renault and Stellantis.
US equity futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.2%, RTY U/C) are mixed, seemingly taking a breather following the hefty losses seen in the prior session. In terms of pre-market movers, Ford (-13.5%) slips after significantly missing on the bottom line, whilst IBM (+4%) gains after strong earnings and improving guidance.
Ford Motor Co (F) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.47 (exp. 0.68), Revenue 47.8bln (exp. 44.02bln). FY adj. EBIT view 10-12bln (exp. 11.23bln). FY CapEx view affirmed between USD 8.0-9.0bln. Shares -13.5% pre-market
International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.43 (exp. 2.20), Revenue 15.77bln (exp. 15.62bln). Shares +4% pre-market
Nissan Motors (7201 JT) Q1 (JPY): Recurring profit 65.13bln (-60.9% Y/Y), Net profits 28.56bln (-72.9%); Cuts FY guidance; Cuts FY24/25 China sales forecast to 777k (prev. 800k), cuts US forecast to 1.41mln (prev. 1.43mln) Shares -6.9% in Asia trade
STMicroelectronics (STM FP) Q2 (EUR): Revenue 3.232bln (exp. 3.204bln), Q2 gross margin 40.1% (exp. 40%). Sees Q3 gross margin 38% (exp. 40.9%), sees Q3 net revenue 38% (exp. 40.9%). Cuts FY24 revenue guidance to between EUR 13.2-13.7bln (exp. 14.3bln). Shares -12.5% in European trade
Nestle (NESN SW) H1 (CHF): Sales 45bln (exp. 45.58bln), Net 5.6bln (exp. 6.08bln), EPS 2.16, +1.8%. In H1, repurchased CHF 2.4bln shares as part of the three-year CHF 20bln buyback which began in 2022. FY Guidance: Organic revenue growth of at least +3% (prev. guided +4%). Shares -4% in European trade
Roche (ROG SW) H1 (CHF): Revenue 29.8bln (exp. 29.911bln), Net Income 6.697bln (exp. 7.523bln); Outlook for 2024 earnings raised; Roche expects to further increase its dividend in CHF. Shares +2.5% in European trade
Anglo American (AAL LN) H1 (USD): Adj. EBITDA 4.9bln (exp. 4.51bln). Adj. EPS 1.06 (exp. 0.90). Adj. Profits 1.29bln (exp. 1.07bln). Decision to temporarily slowdown Woodsmith Crop nutrients project resulted in a USD 1.6bln impairment. Expect to substantially reduce overhead and other non op. costs in phases. Shares -1% in European trade
AstraZeneca (AZN LN) Q2 (USD): Revenue 12.452bln (12.628bln), Core EPS 1.98 (exp. 1.9595); Guidance for FY 2024 increased, with Total Revenue and Core EPS anticipated to grow by a mid teens % (prev. a low double-digit to low teens percentage). Shares -3% in European trade
BE Semiconductor Industries (BESI IM) Q2 (EUR): Revenue 151mln (exp. 152mln), Orders 313mln, Net 41mln. Q3 Guidance: Revenue seen flat, Gross Margin between 64-66% (prev. 65%). CEO estimates that around 50% of orders over the last 12-months were AI-related. Shares -11.5% in European trade
TotalEnergies (TTE FP) Q2 (USD): Net Income 4.7bln (exp. 4.9bln), adj. EBITDA 11.1bln (exp. 11.6bln), adj. EPS 1.98 (exp. 2.06). Refining utilisation rate is expected to be in excess of 85%. Start up of Anchor, within the Gulf of Mexico, expected in Q3. “Sales of petroleum products in the second quarter 2024 were down year-on-year by 2%, mainly due to lower diesel demand in Europe that was partially compensated by higher activity in the aviation business.” Shares -1.5% in European trade
Similar price action for the USD as Wednesday with the dollar softer against havens such as CHF and JPY but firmer against risk-sensitive currencies such as AUD and NZD.
EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD but only marginally so. 1.0825 from Wednesday marks the recent base for the pair. There is a slew of DMAs to the downside in the pair with the 200 DMA at 1.0817.
GBP is seeing shallow losses vs. the USD but off worst levels after briefly breaching Wednesday’s low at 1.2878.
JPY has extended its upside vs. the USD to a 4th consecutive session with the Yen benefitting from risk-aversion, efforts by officials to guide the currency lower, an unwind of carry trades and mounting expectations of a hawkish BoJ at next week’s meeting.
AUD/USD has now extended its downtrend to a 10th consecutive session as global risk sentiment continues to suffer and questions remain over the health of the Chinese economy.
CNH edgins out gains vs. the USD in a market which is characterised by a reversal in recent popular trades with long USD/CNH having been one of them. From a fundamental standpoint, the PBoC surprised markets with a 20bps reduction to the 1yr MLF rate overnight.
USTs are benefitting from the tepid risk tone with the sell-everything/deleveraging narrative not yet extending to the fixed income space. Thus far, as high as 111-04 to within half a tick of yesterday’s best. Data slate is busy today with focus on US IJCs and Q2 PCE, with a 7yr auction thereafter.
Bunds are bouncing from the US auction-induced dip that occurred late on Wednesday and benefitting from the broader macro tone. The German Ifo survey for July was weaker-than-expected, which helped to lift Bunds to a 132.78 high.
Gilts are towards session highs of 98.21; specifics for the UK light and instead Gilts have been caught up in the broader risk-off tone that is continuing from the Wall St. handover.
A downbeat morning for the crude complex amidst the broader risk aversion seen across markets, and in a continuation of the weakness seen in prices on the back of sluggish Chinese demand, with prices unfazed by the surprise PBoC MLF rate cut overnight. Brent Sep in a USD 80.95-81.60/bbl range.
Precious metals are lower across the board despite the softer Dollar and risk aversion amid a broader downturn in metals in what is seemingly an unwind of winning trades. Spot gold slipped from a USD 2,401.31/oz high, through the psychological figure and to a current USD 2,365.91/oz low.
Base metals also trade on the backfoot amid the broader risk aversion and ongoing pessimism regarding Chinese demand.
Russian Deputy PM Novak expects the JMMC meeting on August 1st to be constructive, aims to fulfil OPEC+ deal, will compensate for overproduction OPEC+ partners are satisfied with compensation schedule. Russia aims to fulfil OPEC+ deal, will compensate for overproduction. Constantly in touch with OPEC+ partners, talked with OPEC+ representative last week. Russia has no friction with OPEC+ over exceeding production quotas. Not planning additional measures to normalize the situation with AI-95 petrol supplies, difficulties are temporary. Russia is not going to ban diesel exports, its production is extensive, the situation is stable.
German Ifo Expectations New (Jul) 86.9 vs. Exp. 89.0 (Prev. 89.0); Ifo Business Climate New (Jul) 87 vs. Exp. 88.9 (Prev. 88.6); Ifo Current Conditions New (Jul) 87.1 vs. Exp. 88.5 (Prev. 88.3)
EU Money-M3 Annual Growth (Jun) 2.2% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.6%); Loans to Non-Fin (Jun) 0.7% (Prev. 0.3%); Loans to Households (Jun) 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Biden said America is to choose between hope and hate, optimism and negativity, while he added that he needs to unite the party and it is time to pass the torch but will continue his duties as President for the remainder of his term. Furthermore, he also commented that Vice President Harris is experienced, tough and capable.
China smartphone shipments +10% in Q2; Apple (AAPL) China sales fell 2% Y/Y in Q2, Huawei sales +41%; according to Canalys.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US senior official said Gaza ceasefire negotiations appear to be in their closing stages and negotiators have worked out a pretty detailed text of the arrangements for how a Gaza hostage deal would work in which the initial phase of the hostage deal would see women, men aged over 50 and the sick and wounded hostages released over a 42-day period. Furthermore, the official said the remaining obstacles to a Gaza hostage deal are bridgeable and there will be activity on this issue in the coming week, while US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu will talk about how to close final gaps holding up a Gaza hostage deal during their meeting on Thursday.
OTHER
Ukrainian Navy spokesman said Russia has pulled all its vessels out of the Sea of Azov, according to Reuters.
Russian Foreign Ministry says experts from Russia and the US have met to discuss Ukraine although the ministry does not see such contacts as practical because the US side is biased, according to RIA
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is on the backfoot, suffering from the broader risk tone seen across the markets; BTC currently sitting below USD 64.5k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were negative following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst declines since late-2022 owing to disappointment following some mega-cap earnings and a surprise contraction in US Manufacturing PMI.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by notable losses in tech, while miners also suffered after several quarterly production updates and lower underlying commodity prices.
Nikkei 225 underperformed and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level after shedding over 1,000 points with pressure from currency strength and prospects of a BoJ rate hike at next week’s policy meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the broad selling in the region and fell towards the 17,000 level where support held, while the mainland index also retreated albeit to a lesser extent than regional peers after the PBoC’s surprise MLF operation and 20bps rate cut to the 1-year MLF rate with markets seemingly unimpressed by China’s piecemeal stimulus efforts.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 1-year MLF loans with the rate lowered to 2.30% vs prev. 2.50%.
Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says will not comment on daily share moves; will not comment on FX moves; reiterates it is important for currencies to move in stable manner reflecting fundamental; closely watching FX moves.
China’s State Planner says it is to lower the threshold for the use of ultra-long special bond for investing in equipment upgrade projects. Issuing a notice to increase support for equipment upgrades and consumer good trade-ins. Lifts subsidies for car trade ins to up to CNY 20k/vehicle. Allocating CNY 300bln in ultra-long-term treasury bonds.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Services PPI (Jun) 3.00% vs. Exp. 2.60% (Prev. 2.50%)
South Korean GDP QQ Advance (Q2) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.3%); YY 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.3%)
2C) ASIA REPORT
Wall St. sell off reverberated into APAC trade, PBoC cut the 1yr MLF – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 01:33 AM
APAC stocks were negative following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst declines since late-2022.
The PBoC surprised markets with a 20bps reduction to the 1yr MLF rate.
European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.1% on Wednesday.
DXY is softer vs. havens (JPY and CHF) but firmer against the Antipodeans; extension of yesterday’s price action.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo, US Durable Goods, GDP Advance (Q2), PCE Prices Advance (Q2), US IJC, ECB President Lagarde, Supply from Italy & US
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks tumbled with heavy losses in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq which suffered their worst declines since late 2022 alongside substantial weakness in large-cap Tech, Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services after post-earnings losses in Alphabet and Tesla weighed on risk appetite ahead of the other Magnificent Seven results in the upcoming weeks. Sentiment was also not helped by mixed data releases including a surprise contraction in Manufacturing PMI although the risk-off trade supported defensives and the mild reprieve in oil prices underpinned the energy sector.
SPX -2.3% at 5,427, NDX -3.7% at 19,032, DJIA -1.3% at 39,854, RUT -2.1% at 2,195
US President Biden said America is to choose between hope and hate, optimism and negativity, while he added that he needs to unite the party and it is time to pass the torch but will continue his duties as President for the remainder of his term. Furthermore, he also commented that Vice President Harris is experienced, tough and capable.
Republican Presidential Candidate Trump holds 49% support among registered voters nationwide vs. Harris’s at 46%, according to a CNN poll which was a closer contest than previous CNN polling on the matchup between Biden and Trump.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were negative following the sell-off on Wall St where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst declines since late-2022 owing to disappointment following some mega-cap earnings and a surprise contraction in US Manufacturing PMI.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by notable losses in tech, while miners also suffered after several quarterly production updates and lower underlying commodity prices.
Nikkei 225 underperformed and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level after shedding over 1,000 points with pressure from currency strength and prospects of a BoJ rate hike at next week’s policy meeting.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the broad selling in the region and fell towards the 17,000 level where support held, while the mainland index also retreated albeit to a lesser extent than regional peers after the PBoC’s surprise MLF operation and 20bps rate cut to the 1-year MLF rate with markets seemingly unimpressed by China’s piecemeal stimulus efforts.
US equity futures were rangebound and attempted to compose themselves after recent selling and as key data looms.
European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.5% after the cash market finished with losses of 1.1% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY mildly weakened after recent flows into haven peers and the surprise contraction in US Manufacturing PMI although the downside was limited as attention turns to the upcoming key data including advanced GDP later followed by PCE prices on Friday.
EUR/USD lacked direction after yesterday’s choppy performance, soft PMI data and quiet newsflow.
GBP/USD was lacklustre after failing to sustain the 1.2900 status and as catalysts remained light for the UK
USD/JPY continues its slide and breached the 153.00 level to the downside amid haven flows and prospects of a BoJ rate hike next week, while Services PPI data also printed hotter than expected.
Antipodeans were pressured alongside the risk-off mood and slump in metal prices.
FIXED INCOME
10-year UST futures regained some composure after yesterday’s late dip but with the rebound capped ahead of key data and incoming supply with a 7-year auction scheduled today.
Bund futures were subdued following recent selling but are off worse levels and just about reclaimed the 132.00 level.
10-year JGB futures remained in negative territory heading closer to next week’s key BoJ meeting with a source report noting the central bank will weigh a rate hike and have a detailed plan to halve bond buying in the coming years, while firmer-than-expected Services PPI data and a lack of BoJ purchases also kept prices in check.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were subdued amid the negative risk tone, proving yesterday’s mild relief was a mere dead cat bounce.
Spot gold was pressured following a break below the key USD 2400/oz and coincided with a sharp drop in silver which fell to its lowest in over two months.
Copper futures retreated amid the downbeat mood despite the PBoC’s surprise MLF operation and associated rate cut.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin declined amid the sell-off in risk assets and tested the USD 64,000 level to the downside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 200bln via 1-year MLF loans with the rate lowered to 2.30% vs prev. 2.50%.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Services PPI (Jun) 3.00% vs. Exp. 2.60% (Prev. 2.50%)
South Korean GDP QQ Advance (Q2) -0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 1.3%)
South Korean GDP YY Advance (Q2) 2.3% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 3.3%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
Israel PM Netanyahu said Israel will do what it must to return security to the northern border, while he added that America and Israel can forge a security alliance in the Middle East to counter the Iranian threat. Netanyahu said all countries that will make peace with Israel should be invited to join this alliance with the new alliance to be a natural extension of the Abraham accords and will be called the Abraham Alliance.
Israeli PM Netanyahu told leaders of Jewish organisations on Tuesday night that he would present a plan for the day after the war in Gaza, according to Axios.
Hamas official said Israeli PM Netanyahu’s speech shows he doesn’t want to conclude a ceasefire deal, while the group also said that Israeli PM Netanyahu’s talk on intensified efforts to release hostages is pure lies, according to a statement.
US senior official said Gaza ceasefire negotiations appear to be in their closing stages and negotiators have worked out a pretty detailed text of the arrangements for how a Gaza hostage deal would work in which the initial phase of the hostage deal would see women, men aged over 50 and the sick and wounded hostages released over a 42-day period. Furthermore, the official said the remaining obstacles to a Gaza hostage deal are bridgeable and there will be activity on this issue in the coming week, while US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu will talk about how to close final gaps holding up a Gaza hostage deal during their meeting on Thursday.
OTHER
Ukrainian Navy spokesman said Russia has pulled all its vessels out of the Sea of Azov, according to Reuters.
Russian Foreign Ministry says experts from Russia and the US have met to discuss Ukraine although the ministry does not see such contacts as practical because the US side is biased, according to RIA
US Treasury imposed sanctions targeting a China-based network supporting North Korea’s ballistic missile and space programmes.
2C) JAPAN
YEN CARRY TRADE COLLAPSES AND CAUSES MASS LIQUIDATION OF EQUITIES THROUGHOUT THE GLOBE
(SEE REPORTS ABOVE)
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/RUSSIA/USA
The uSA has a moron (Biden) at the top and an even greater moron to run once Biden leaves under the 25th amendment. (Harris)
(BBC Gozzi)
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
China and Russia stage first joint bomber patrol near Alaska
1 hour agoShare
Laura Gozzi
BBC News
A Chinese H-6K bomber and a Russian Sukhoi Su-30CM jet fighter during Wednesday’s patrol near Alaska
Russia and China have staged a joint patrol over the north Pacific Ocean and the Bering Sea near the coast of Alaska.
The two countries have carried out several joint patrols in the past, and Russia regularly flies its bombers over the Bering Sea.
But Wednesday’s joint patrol was the first that brought together bombers from both countries in the north Pacific area.
Moscow and Beijing said it was “not aimed at any third party”, while the US-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) said the bombers, which it intercepted, stayed in international airspace and were “not seen as a threat”.
But Alaska Senator Lisa Murkowski described the event as an “unprecedented provocation by our adversaries”, adding that it was “the first time they have been intercepted operating together.”
China has said the patrol has “nothing to do with the current international and regional situation”.
Russian TU-95MS strategic missile carriers and the Chinese air force’s Xian H-6 strategic bombers were deployed, according to Russia.
China and Russia have developed closer ties since Moscow was placed under sanctions by the West following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Any display of deepening cooperation is watched with apprehension by the US and European countries.
Earlier this month, Moscow and Beijing wrapped up their fourth joint naval patrol in the northern and western Pacific Ocean.
Nato countries issued a joint statement at the end of a recent summit in Washington accusing China of being a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war in Ukraine and urging it to “cease all material and political support” to the country’s war effort.
In a report on Arctic security published on Monday, the US Department of Defence expressed concern over the two countries’ “growing alignment”, and predicted that their military cooperation would continue to increase.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov rejected this, saying Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic could only contribute to an atmosphere of “stability and predictability” in the area.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU
More Guns, Less Butter: How Will The EU Wed Austerity To Militarization?
US President Joe Biden, long showing signs of decline, is now officially done for in five months time, if not sooner. The current odds-on favorite to be the next president speaks often about turning away from Europe. Governments are collapsing, and countries are fracturing across the EU. And the eurozone economy is a mess.
One might be tempted to come to the conclusion that it is time for the EU to start figuring out an exit strategy from its war against Russia. Trouble is, if the bloc’s crop of leaders were able to grasp the situation and act, they likely would have gotten out a long time ago – or never been game at all. Instead they kept digging deeper, and here again we have the EU doubling down.
EU diplomats have spent the past few weeks throwing a fit over Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s shuttle diplomacy efforts. In its very first session the newly elected Parliament produced a belligerent joint text, making all sorts of hardline demands, such as the removal of any restrictions on the Ukrainian use of Western weapons systems to strike Russian territory.
They also chose to reappoint one of the war’s biggest backers, Ursula von der Leyen, as president of the European Commission – the most powerful position in the EU. Let’s take a look at von der Leyen’s pitch as she worked to cobble together enough votes for her second five-year term and what the plan is now that she’s back. Emboldened by her reappointment, she is pushing for a defense union.
Politico describes this task as “the number one challenge of her second term: making huge amounts of EU money available to reindustrialize and re-arm the EU.”
Left unexplained is who would foot the bill for the ambitious plans, but the Commission and the European Central Bank continue to consider the possibility of issuing Eurobonds to finance the purchase or manufacture of weaponry, an idea considered off-limits until recently. Some background on the potential “miracle” of Euro defense bonds from Euractiv:
This miracle happened during the eurozone crisis when the EU created a legal instrument, the European Financial Stability Facility, able to issue bonds and with a lending capacity of €440 billion. And with the COVID pandemic, the miracle was repeated as the EU adopted a recovery fund with a firepower of €750 billion, financed through common debt issuance.
The same line of thinking has inspired politicians to imagine defence bonds – to finance a major boost of the EU’s defence capabilities, after years of neglect when it was assumed that war was a thing of the past or that Uncle Sam would always come to the EU’s defence.
Estonia’s Prime Minister [now the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy] Kaja Kallas highlighted in December the need for EU defence bonds to fight Russia’s aggression in Ukraine…
Speaking at the European Defence Agency annual conference on 30 November, [European Council President Charles] Michel said EU member states should pool what could amount to €600 billion in defence investment over the next 10 years.
He also said European defence bonds would be an attractive asset class, including for retail investors. Incidentally, a top European Investment Bank cautioned in an interview with Euractiv in January that investors don’t currently have an appetite for defence-related financial assets.
A couple of weeks later, French President Emmanuel Macron returned to the topic, telling investors at the World Economic Forum in Davos that Europe should resort to joint debt to finance its priorities, including defence.
Who doesn’t love “miracles?” But there are some issues, including economic difficulties across the bloc, governments crumbling, and public frustration with everything from the immigration to the economy. There is also the reported military manpower shortages, which is a whole other problem that has been frequently covered.
Politico quotes an unnamed diplomat who says that “Everything that costs anything — for example, Ukraine defense,” will prove “problematic” during von der Leyen’s second term. While von der Leyen is throwing around figures like 500 billion over the next decade, another diplomat said, “We didn’t see spreadsheets, we didn’t see details, this is pie in the sky money.”
More details are likely coming soon as von der Leyen is planning to appoint a Commissioner for Defense who will present a white paper on the future of European militarization efforts within 100 days.
The real question is whether Germany will go along with any eurobond plan. The historically unpopular chancellor Olaf Scholz remains opposed to Euro defense bonds – for now. He argues that the EU already has various research and industrial funds to support defense cooperation among member states and defense companies.
For example, Poland, France, Germany and Italy just signed a letter of intent to jointly develop long-range cruise missiles. Poland and Germany were among those countries that got rid of their missiles in the 1990s following the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. That agreement expired in 2019, however, after then-president Donald Trump withdrew from it. The US is ever-so-generously agreeing to cover Germany where US long-range missiles will be rotationally deployed in 2026 as a temporary solution.
While Scholz talks up agreements like the joint development of long-range cruise missiles, Atlanticists are insisting he do more, and he does not have a strong record of firmness when pressured by his NATO/EU colleagues.
Recall in the Fall of 2022 when he resisted sending more heavy arms to Ukraine. After a few weeks of badgering, he pledged to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes.” He also caved on the Leopard tanks after making a show of resistance. On the other hand, the Taurus missiles still haven’t been sent to Ukraine. Yet the Eurobond issue is starting to be reminiscent of these previous pressure campaigns. It was only four months ago that idea was viewed as “radical;” now Germany is viewed as the main roadblock.
Berlin is facing its own budgetary constraints while also pushing arbitrary limits onto other EU nations, and the inadequate ramp up of military spending is “set[ting] the stage for further clashes with Germany’s international partners, especially Washington, in the coming months.” On the other hand, any eurobond plan would only strengthen political threats to the “center” in Germany, such as the Alternative for Germany and Sahra Wagenknecht who want to stop the digging and attempt to repair ties with Russia.
Could a Trump Election Further Von Der Leyen’s Goals?
It’s important to note that Trump didn’t actually undermine the NATO alliance in any significant way as president and appointed CIA officials and neocons to run his hawkish foreign policy, although there is hope that will change in a second go-round.
In reality, however, the plan for the US to take a backseat on the European front and focus on the Pacific is part of a strategy long pushed by neocons. It might be an unrealistic and dangerous one, but it is a strategy nonetheless. Here is a team from the influential Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) writing earlier this year in Foreign Affairsabout how Europe must lead in the fight against Russia so the US can focus on China:
That complicated reality requires U.S. allies, especially in Europe, to take on a larger share of directing the containment of Russia. Europe has shown its political and economic resilience in the face of Russian aggression. Yet militarily, the continent remains dependent on the United States. This dynamic must change, in part because the United States must commit more of its resources to Asia. The growth of European defense spending since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine is an encouraging step. In 2023, 11 NATO members hit their spending target, allocating at least two percent of GDP to national defense, up from just seven members in 2022. The rest need to follow suit.
Europe must also resolve the problem of coordination. Right now, the United States coordinates more than 25 militaries in Europe. While it must continue to do this in the short term, it must push individual European countries and the European Union to take over this role and to create a stronger European pillar in NATO.
This is precisely what is atop Queen Ursula’s to-do list for her second term, so a second Trump presidency might not be a disaster but an opportunity in the eyes of ambitious and deluded in Brussels who want to amass more power in the name of marshaling the bloc’s finances to ramp up militarization efforts against the Russian menace.
In many ways Europe’s bureaucracy has already changed in small but fundamental ways in order to redirect money towards war. From Equal Times:
“In 2023, there was a very significant increase in military spending worldwide, but especially in Europe. In Spain, for example, it grew by 24 per cent and in Finland by 36 per cent. If we compare it with 2013, the European countries in Nato are spending 30 per cent more,” says Pere Ortega, a researcher at the Barcelona-based Centre Delàs for Peace Studies, which is critical of measures adopted by the European Commission to promote military spending, such as the VAT exemption for the purchase of armaments or the change in the regulations of the European Investment Bank (EIB) to allow it to finance industrial projects in the military sphere.
The problem now is that individual states are running into budgetary constraints.
More Guns, Less Butter
EU leaders are determined to reimpose austerity on bloc countries beginning in 2025. That’s a return to the annual limits of 3 percent of GDP for public deficits and 60 percent for public debt, which were suspended in response to the Covid-19 pandemic.
There are some new twists to the rules that were marketed as measures to soften the pain, but if they do, it will be minimal. For example, the new agreement stipulates that countries with a deficit above 3 percent of GDP are required to halve this to 1.5 percent but can do so during periods of growth. That growth might quickly evaporate with such a public spending pullback, but that’s the plan. Elsewhere, countries will still be required to reduce their debt on average by 1 percent per year if it is above 90 percent of GDP, and by 0.5 percent per year on average if the debt is between 60 percent and 90 percent of GDP. The new rules give countries seven years to get their spending in order, up from four previously.
These rules will make it close to impossible to spend more on defense without completely cutting social services to the bone. Even without factoring in increased defense expenditures the outlook is grim:
Too meet reformed EU fiscal rules, Italy and France would have to go for fiscal consolidations over 2025-2028 that are larger than during the Euro Crisis (2011-2014). Spain has to do about half. Do we properly remember the effects and political debates of €zone austerity?
·
56.7K Views
Too meet reformed EU fiscal rules, Italy and France would have to go for fiscal consolidations over 2025-2028 that are larger than during the Euro Crisis (2011-2014). Spain has to do about half.
Do we properly remember the effects and political debates of €zone austerity? pic.twitter.com/Rmuz8jfkTJ
So how to reconcile the goal of a defense union and remilitarization with plans for austerity?
A few possibilities:
There is talk of exemptions from the debt rules for military spending.
Bloomberg reported back in March that EU officials and investors are using the fiscal rules to push for an EU-wide bond program that would bring the investors bigtime profits while allowing the bloc to ramp up military spending without individual nations incurring more debt.
Of course a third option is that the EU will abandon its war against Russia, stop supporting Nazis, quit fetishizing austerity, and rebuild its economies, but back to reality.
The big question remains if Germany will get onboard with the EU bond program. One reason it could is because it would help Berlin with its own budgetary constraints. While Germany wouldn’t face major budget crunches like France, Italy, and Spain under the return of debt and deficit rules, it is hamstrung by its self-imposed deficit brake.
That rule, intended to force German governments to balance the federal budget, was introduced under former Chancellor Angela Merkel during the euro crisis and restricts deficit spending to a minimum, except under “extraordinary” circumstances, such as a natural disaster or war. The current government tried to override the brake in order to shovel more money into the Ukraine bottomless pit, but was rebuked last Fall by the constitutional court.
An EU-wide war bond program could help the bloc bypass all the self-imposed debt brakes while still cutting and privatizing social services, and both could be a boon for investors. What’s not to love? The Centre for European Policy Studies with more:
Against this backdrop, the EU’s true ‘Hamiltonian moment’ in defence would be a decision to issue joint debt to properly fund the ambitions set out in its Defence Industrial Strategy.
Based on Art. 122 TFEU and implemented in accordance with Articles 173-174 TFEU, such bonds—possible under the EU’s Financial Regulation—could provide the backbone for grants to Member States to bolster the Union’s defence production capacity if paired with existing incentives for joint capabilities research, development, production, and procurement. This would avoid the two-speed logic and weaker conditionalities surrounding proposals to use the European Stability Mechanism (excluding key countries such as Poland, Sweden and Denmark) to issue loans to EU Member States for defence spending.
Like how the Covid-induced Recovery and Resilience Facility stabilised European markets and sustained demand during and after the pandemic, Euro-defence bonds are a potential game-changer for the EU’s defence ambitions due to the potential speed and scale of resource mobilisation, and the potential impact on market de-fragmentation. And, fortunately, the German Constitutional Court should have nothing to object to this time around.
The View from Outside the Cult
Voices from Moscow, Budapest, and Belgrade are issuing warnings that the EU continuing down this road increases the threat of war, and they are concluding that is what Brussels wants.
Moscow is taking note of von der Leyen’s plans and preparing accordingly according to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov:
“[It] confirms the general attitude of European states to militarisation, escalation of tension, confrontation and reliance on confrontational methods in their foreign policy,” said Peskov “Everything is quite obvious here.”
The Kremlin spokesman added that while Russia did not pose a threat to the EU, actions by its member states regarding Ukraine “have excluded any possibility of dialogue and consideration of Russia’s concerns. These are the realities in which we have to live, and this forces us to configure our foreign policy approaches accordingly,” Peskov said.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, childishly reprimanded by the EU for talking peace with world leaders, keeps warning about the levels of delusion in Brussels. His latest in a Magyar Nemzet op-ed:
The Brussels bureaucrats want this war, they see it as their own, and they want to defeat Russia. They keep sending the money of the European people to Ukraine, they have shot European companies in the foot with sanctions, they have driven up inflation and they have made making a living difficult for millions of European citizens.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic echoed those thoughts in a recent interview with the Pink TV channel:
“The West would like to conduct warfare from a distance, through someone else, through investing money and so on, but at the moment they are not ready [for a direct conflict with Russia]. Will they be ready? They are not ready now, but I think they will be ready. They are already preparing for a conflict with the Russian Federation and they are preparing much faster than some people would like to see, in every sense. We know that from the military preparations, we know how they’re going. And I want to tell you, they are preparing for a military conflict.”
end
Good harbinger of things to come in Europe: Nestle’s guidance downgrade!
(zerohedge)
Nestle’s Guidance Downgrade Adds To Rough Start For Consumer Earnings Season
On Thursday, Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense told clients, “Not a great start to earnings season in Consumer, with very few positive surprises so far. Both high-end consumption and the low-income consumer are weak.”
At this rate, it’s only a matter of time before Goldman analysts tell clients to start shorting stocks exposed to high-income consumers.
The latest consumer warning comes from the world’s biggest food company as cash-strapped customers switched to cheaper generic brands amid elevated inflation and high interest rates.
Nestle reported that organic revenue in the first half of the year fell short of Wall Street’s expectations. It also revised its full-year outlook lower.
Here’s a snapshot of first-half results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Organic revenue +2.1%, estimate +2.52%
Nespresso organic revenue +1.8%, estimate +2.67%
Nestle Health Science organic revenue +0.1%, estimate +0.23%
Other businesses organic revenue +9.7%, estimate +5.28%
Europe organic revenue +4.5%, estimate +4.26%
North America organic revenue -0.1%, estimate +0.13%
Latin America organic revenue +2.7%, estimate +4.03%
Asia, Oceania & Africa organic revenue +3.5%, estimate +3.93%
Greater China organic revenue +1.6%, estimate +3.51%
Sees organic revenue at least +3%, saw about +4%, estimate +3.83% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Jefferies analysts told clients that the guidance reduction is a major concern about the company’s profits and the strength of its brands in this challenging consumer environment.
Bloomberg pointed out, “A cost-of-living crisis has taken its toll on consumers who’ve traded down to supermarket brands, and consumer giants.”
Goldman analyst De La Grense told clients:
“The main thing I’m hearing this morning is incremental concern on Nestle’s forecasting ability. There was a time when this was the most predictable EPS story in consumer. After the CEO recently reiterated 4% organic sales growth guidance (back in May), investors are surprised to see a cut to outlook. This follows multiple quarters in the last year or so where Nestle has disappointed on top line and overshadows the fact that RIG returned to growth in Q2. Pricing is weakening and drove another miss on Q2 organic sales growth, alongside the FY guidance cut.”
Here’s what other analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Bryan Garnier (neutral)
This was another set of disappointing results from Nestle, analyst Philippine Adam says
While there was “some undeniable margin improvement,” Adam says Nestle is “struggling to restore growth momentum in some key areas and has decreased its full-year guidance from 4% to at least 3% organic growth”
Jefferies (underperform)
Analyst David Hayes says the reduction to FY sales and EPS guidance and the 2Q organic growth miss will all weigh on stock Thursday
Sees consensus sales growth expectations cut by up to 0.5pp
Notes China’s soft demand and negative pricing in North America
Shares in Europe plunge to levels not seen since early 2019.
It’s troubling when the world’s largest food company struggles, indicating that consumers across various income brackets are cutting back on spending. The big question is whether Goldman will soon tell clients to start shorting stocks exposed to higher-income consumers.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL HAMAS/ USA
Dumb move: Harris just lost the entire Jewish vote
(zerohedge)
Kamala Harris’s absence from Netanyahu’s Congressional address: A bad start – editorial
Vice President Kamala Harris’s decision to skip Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address to Congress for a convention raised questions about her stance on Israel amidst growing political tensions.
By JPOST EDITORIALJULY 25, 2024 05:57Updated: JULY 25, 2024 05:58
US Vice President Kamala Harris looks on as she visits the Reading Terminal Market in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, US, July 13, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN MOHATT)
Custom dictates that when foreign leaders address a joint session of Congress, the Speaker of the House and the vice president sit behind them on the rostrum.
That was the case when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress in 1996, and then-vice president Al Gore sat in one of the chairs behind him. It was also true in 2011 when then-vice president Joe Biden took that chair.
Biden did not attend Netanyahu’s speech in 2015, a clear sign of the White House’s displeasure that this speech had been arranged despite their opposition. On Wednesday, Vice President Kamala Harris was not in that seat during Netanyahu’s address.
She should have been.
‘Outragous and inexcusable’
That she wasn’t, that Harris decided instead to attend the annual convention of a sorority being held in Indiana, is a bad look and a problematic first signal on Israel in her position as presumptive presidential nominee.
As House Speaker Mike Johnson put it, “It’s outrageous to me and inexcusable that Kamala Harris is boycotting this joint session.”
Johnson, a Republican, was the lawmaker who invited Netanyahu, in part to accentuate the differences between Republicans and Democrats on Israel in an election year. He knew many Democrats would boycott the speech.
U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) and Senate Foreign Relations Chair, Senator Ben Cardin (D-MD), listen as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses a joint meeting of Congress at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., July 24, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Craig Hudson)
Yet, the Democratic leadership signed off on the invitation, and as such, Harris should have shown up. This would have been an opportunity to turn the tables on Johnson and demonstrate that there is no difference between the two parties when it comes to fundamental support for the Jewish state.
Harris must know that everything she says and does now will be carefully scrutinized. Although her office said that she was absent from Netanyahu’s speech because of a simple scheduling conflict, her absence comes within the context of the broader boycott of the speech by Democratic lawmakers.
Had Harris wanted to, she could have rearranged her schedule. That she didn’t, sends the signal that she was looking for an excuse – as many other lawmakers did – to not listen to Netanyahu.
And why would she take such a step? To pander to the progressives of her party upset with the administration’s overall strong support for Israel during the current war. She needs to be savvy enough politically, however, to realize that as she is pandering to one flank of her party, she risks alienating pro-Israel voters on the other side.
Prefers a one-on-one
Some, in Harris’ defense, will say that she is scheduled to meet Netanyahu for a private meeting during the prime minister’s current trip, which should dispel any suggestions that she harbors him any enmity.
That meeting, however, is a private one in which the two leaders will learn where each other stands on various issues. The speech in Congress symbolized the strong bonds between the two countries. Her absence – along with the absence of other lawmakers – sent a signal that there are cracks in those bonds, signals that Israel’s enemies will detect and seek to exploit.
Another argument in her defense is that GOP vice presidential candidate J.D. Vance also missed the speech, citing a previous election campaign commitment.
While true, there is a difference. Vance has made his position crystal clear regarding the war in Gaza, Hamas’s responsibility for the humanitarian disaster there, and the need for Israel to be allowed to defeat Hamas convincingly. Harris has not.
On the contrary, since the beginning of the war, she has – as even Israel’s ambassador to the US Michael Herzog pointed out this week – made some problematic comments regarding Israel. Herzog said that overall, however, her record on Israel is positive.
Those “problematic” comments – including accusations that Gazans were starving because of Israel and that anti-Israel protesters on campus were “showing exactly what the human emotion should be” – raise questions for the pro-Israel community about where her heart is: with Israel or the anti-Israel elements within the progressive wing of her party.
By attending Netanyahu’s speech in the vice president’s role as president of the senate, Harris would have sent one message. By not attending, she sent another.
It’s a bad start.
ISRAEL HAMAS/
This is important: Israel is now exploring proposals for post war Gaza with the uSA, and friendly UAE
(Jerusalem Post)
Netanyahu’s top diplomatic emissary exploring proposals for post-war Gaza with US, UAE – report
The participants reportedly held talks in Abu Dhabi last week hosted by Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the op-ed said, and included Israeli and American officials.
Palestinians with animal-drawn carts collect water from a water desalination plant, amid water shortages, as the conflict between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group Hamas continues, in central Gaza Strip October 27, 2023.(photo credit: REUTERS/Mohammed Fayq Abu Mostafa)
A top diplomatic emissary for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly been exploring innovative proposals for a post-war Gaza Strip with the United States and the United Arab Emirates, according to an op-ed published by the Washington Post on Tuesday.
The story, labeled as an op-ed, reports that a “reformed” Palestinian Authority in inviting “Arab and European countries provide forces under a ‘stabilization mandate’ in Gaza” was being discussed.” An Emirati proposal also said that the PA could solicit military and intelligence support from a range of countries.
Another proposal by the Emiratis was that the PA would become a recognized governing authority and would be able to “invite international partners to support security and humanitarian aid in Gaza during a ‘stabilization mandate’ that might last up to a year,” according to the report.
The participants reportedly held talks in Abu Dhabi last week hosted by Emirati Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the op-ed said. Those in attendance were Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer and Middle East policy director for the US Security Council, Brett McGurk. Other Arab, US, and Israeli officials who shared details on the meetings requested anonymity in the Washington Post report.
The idea for the meetings was suggested by the Emirati officials, the op-ed said, with one official saying they convened the meetings due to their frustration “by the lack of creative thinking about post-war Gaza.” The officials had suggested former PA prime minister Salam Fayyad as a leader of the reform effort, to which Israeli officials said they are willing to accept him.
Palestinians leave Rafah, in fear of an Israeli military operation, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestinian Islamist group Hamas in the southern Gaza Strip, February 13, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mohammed Salem TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
The Post op-ed lists the UAE’s white paper as follows: The “reformed” PA in Gaza would issue its invitation to security providers, and Israel would agree not to undermine this Gaza effort by initiating controversial policies in the West Bank that could create tensions.
International presence in Gaza
The Emiratis hope the US could help lead a path to Palestinian statehood, even if Israel would not be on board.
The Post writes of sector by sector, from north to south, zones in Gaza would be backed by internationally supported security, similar to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s proposal for security “bubbles.” Netanyahu rejected this proposal, but Dermer has hinted to possibilities of behind open to a rebranded version of the plan.
The UAE has increased its role in Gaza through a hospital it established and other humanitarian aid. The Emiratis have found a network of supporters of former PA official in Gaza Mohammed Dahlan who has resided in Abu Dhabi since Hamas seized power. The UAE, according to The Post, hopes Dahlan could do some behind-the-scenes work.
end
ISRAEL/IRAN/TERRORISTS/OLYMPICS
Israel Warns That ‘Iranian Terrorist Proxies’ Plotting Attack On Israelis At Olympics
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 10:00 AM
The 2024 Paris Olympics will officially open on the night of Friday, July 26 – but already there are warnings that terrorists are looking to disrupt the games. Israel is now loudly warning that its athletes are prime targets.
Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz on Friday has sent an alarming letter to his French counterpart, Stéphane Séjourné, informing the French side of an alleged Iranian-backed plot to attack the Israeli delegation of athletes.
“There are those who seek to undermine the celebratory nature of this joyous event,” wrote Katz in the message. “We currently have assessments regarding the potential threat posed by Iranian terrorist proxies and other terrorist organizations who aim to carry out attacks against members of the Israeli delegation and Israeli tourists during the Olympics.”
Katz did acknowledge the “unprecedented security measures” put in place by French security forces to protect Israelis attending the games. He also noted that French authorities rejected some calls among the Left to ban all Israeli participants from the Olympics.
In total 88 Israeli athletes are at the games, and they have reportedly been given unprecedented, around-the-clock protection from both French and Israeli security services. At this point Israeli has not presented any evidence publicly to back its assertion that Iranian proxies are plotting an attack.
Just the night prior to this new warning, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed Congress in a nearly hour-long speech which had a heavy focus on the ‘Iran threat’. He claimed that Tehran is behind “all the terrorism” and “all the killing” in the Middle East while making a case that it is the biggest backer of Hamas and Hezbollah.
Worrisomely, police in Belgium have just announced the arrest of seven people on Thursday on suspicion they were preparing a “terrorist attack.” Federal prosecutors indicated it was the result of 14 raids and counter-terror monitoring nationwide.
However, a government spokesman said there is yet no evidence of any link to the 2024 Paris Olympics. There are “no details at this time as to the locations or targets but what was found leads us to believe an attack was being prepared,” a statement issued to AFP said.
It said all of them “are suspected of participation in a terrorist group’s activities, financing of terrorism and preparation of a terrorist attack.”
Already there have been reports of groups of protesters threatening the Israeli delegation in Paris…
À Paris, à la sortie du parc des princes, la racaille tente d’attaquer les supporters israéliens. Bravo aux forces de l’ordre pour leur intervention. #Israel#JeuxOlympiquespic.twitter.com/tmfOR9xWYJ
At this moment while the Gaza war is raging and Palestinian death toll in soaring, Israel is wary of the potential for a repeat of the 1972 Munich Olympic games massacre.
It involved affiliates of the Palestinian militant group Black September kidnapping and killing a group of Israeli athletes. Twelve victims died – almost all of them members of the Israeli Olympic team – in an attack which shocked the world
end
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/CHINA
China seems to be brokering a settlement deal between Ukraine and Russia
(zerohedge)
Ukraine Strongly Signals Willingness To Negotiate With Russia: China FM
WEDNESDAY, JUL 24, 2024 – 06:00 PM
The Ukrainian government has been showing an increased willingness to get to the negotiating table to end the war, with the latest development being a trip by the country’s top diplomat to China to explore avenues forward. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Wednesday met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, and communicated in a statement that “I am convinced that a just peace in Ukraine is in China’s strategic interests.”
“China’s role as a global force for peace is important,” he emphasized, while also stipulating that Kiev will only engage Moscow when Putin is “ready to negotiate in good faith.” However, he added that “No such readiness is currently observed on the Russian side.” This marks the first such trip of Ukraine’s foreign minister to China since the war began in February 2022.
Wang in a readout said that Russia and Ukraine had each “sent signals of their willingness to negotiate to varying degrees.”
From Ukraine’s perspective, China alone is a powerful enough external actor which possesses enough influence with Moscow to get it to end the invasion. For Beijing, this is an opportunity to show itself a crucial counterweight to the United States on the world stage in dealing with intractable conflicts from Ukraine to Gaza.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry statement continued in follow-up to Wang’s comments, saying, “Of course, the negotiations should be rational and substantive, aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace.”
Wang had in the meeting warned the Ukrainian diplomat that there is the “risk of escalation and spillover” of the conflict, adding that “China believes that the resolution of all conflicts must eventually return to the negotiation table.”
Last week, President Zelensky issued a surprise reversal, saying that a second Ukraine peace summit should include Russian representation. “I believe that Russian representatives should be at the second summit,” Zelensky told a press conference in Kiev on July 15 while outlining preparatory work for another summit.
The first “Summit on Peace in Ukraine at the Bürgenstock” in Switzerland in mid-June importantly did not have either Russian or Chinese participation. While Beijing had been invited, Russia was not, and the Chinese government cited this as a reason it found the whole endeavor futile.
China has been busy presenting itself as peacemaker while condemning ‘hegemonic’ Washington…
just brokered a historic unity pledge with Palestinian leaders. Ukraine is requesting China mediate peace with Russia. China brokered peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. While the U.S. fuels genocide and endless war, China is showing it’s a peace making super power.
In addition to China, the Vatican is also this week calling for some very real talk regarding the war. According to a readout from the Vatican as quoted in Russian media:
The Vatican’s Secretary of State, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, believes that the Ukrainian conflict is still far from being settled and that Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky’s proposed peace formula is not sufficient, the Cardinal said on Wednesday in an interview with Italian daily Avvenire…
“It seems to me that we are still far away from the resolution [of the conflict],” he said. “We have President Zelensky’s peace proposal, which the Holy See supported immediately, particularly in the sphere of humanitarian issues.”
“It represents an attempt to find peace, although it has gaps in the sense of not involving Russia. This plan can help, but it is not sufficient,” he continued. “I hope other formulae can be found to pave the way for the talks.”
It remains that Kiev has been unwilling to budge on the idea of making territorial concessions. At the same time, Russia is unwilling to give up the four eastern territories it previously annexed, declaring them part of the Russian Federation after a referendum last year.
But this month has included a series of openings and unprecedented signaling coming from Kiev for the first time. This as both Ukraine is in a desperate situation on the battlefield and as it is bracing for a likely future Trump administration in the US.
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0848 DOWN .0009
USA/ YEN 152.39 DOWN 1.523 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE
GBP/USA 1.2873 DOWN 0.0025
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3830 UP .0025 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 25 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 15.21 PTS OR 0.52%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 306.08 PTS OR 1.77%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 1.36%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 306.08 PTS OR 1.77 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 15.21 PTS OR 0.52%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .04%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1,285.34 PTS OR3.28%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2373.30
silver:$27.60
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 103.98 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.2326 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2337)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.03 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.060…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.217% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.476 DOWN 7 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.364 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2363,00
SILVER AT 11;30: 27.70
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED UP 32.66 PTS OR 0.40%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 85.74 PTS OR 0.45%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 86.75 PTS OR 1.15 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 64.50 OR 0.58%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 700.58 PTS OR 2.03% PTS
WTI Oil price 77.38 12EST/
Brent Oil: 81.33 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 84.88 ROUBLE UP 1 AND 35/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4090 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1625 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.364 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0849 UP 0.0012 OR 12 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2859 DOWN 0.0039 OR 39 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.134 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.067
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153.86 DOWN 0.054 YEN UP 5 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3815 UP 0.0004//CDN dollar DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.48
Brent OIL: 82.37
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.259
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 4.499%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.441
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.399 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 104.09 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.00 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.00 UP 1 AND 23/100 roubles
GOLD 2,362,49 3:30 PM
SILVER: 27.85 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 81.20 PTS OR 0.20%
NASDAQ DOWN 201.30 PTS OR 1.06 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17.75 DOWN 29 PTS OR 1.64%
GLD: $218.36 DOWN 3.34 OR 1.55%
SLV/ $25.40 DOWN 1.03 OR 3.90%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM:
Mega-Cap Meltdown Continues As ‘Good News’ Sends Rate-Cut Hopes Reeling
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 04:00 PM
KC Fed survey joined yesterday’s Regional Fed surveys in the doldrums (as did today’s plunge in durable goods orders) but of course, all eyes were sternly focused on Q2 GDP’s beat.
That ‘good news’ sparked a hawkish shift lower in rate-cut expectations…
Source: Bloomberg
The Nasdaq lagged..again.. with Small Caps ripping higher. The S&P ended red again with The Dow clinging to gains…
Nasdaq has underperformed Russell 2000 for 11 of the last 12 days, erasing YTD outperformance for the big-tech index
Source: Bloomberg
This is the biggest relative underperformance of the Nasdaq vs Russell 2000 since the peak of the dotcom boom…
Source: Bloomberg
Small Caps were helped by a massive (almost 5%) short-squeeze today…
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 stocks ended lower but bounced back off the initial puke…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500 found support almost perfectly at its 50DMA (5433), bounced, then fell back below it again…
Nasdaq also bounced off its 100DMA yesterday, and faded back towards it today…
Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that they saw the first buy-skew in a few days with our floor tilting +3% net to buy. Volumes tracking +25% vs the trailing 20days and ETFs capturing 30% of the overall tape.
LOs buying Fins + Cons Discretionary vs selling Tech and Hcare though much less risk-off than yday. Yesterday’s sell off was mostly asset managers and today we are back to a true blend.
HFs buying Tech, Discretionary, and Hcare vs selling Fins + Industrials. Interesting to note liquidity continues to be poor, tracking -30% vs the trailing 20 days.
Equity risk is back up at its highest since April, but bond vol remains muted… for now…
“It does seem that an unwinding has begun of popular trades that brought valuations to stupid levels,” Louis-Vincent Gave, chief executive officer of Gavekal Research, wrote in a note to clients.
Mixed day for bonds with the short-end underperforming (2Y +1bps, 30Y -5bps) reversing some of the recent very aggressive steepening of the curve…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar chopped around like a penny stock today…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was hit again, finding support at $2350…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin slipped lower, finding support at around $64,000…
Source: Bloomberg
But ETH dramatically lagged BTC, erasing most of the post-May ‘buy the ETF rumor’ gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices bounced back to unchanged on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, there’s more room to run. SPX: over the last ~100 years, median year has a SPX peak to trough drawdown of 13%. Believe it or not only been 4% which a typical drawdown taking us to 4900…
NDX: median drawdown is 16% or around another 9% from here based on last 40 calendar years – would put you at the ~1700 level…
But hey, we bounced today, so everything is awesome, right?
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Pay no attention to this contrived data
(zerohedge)
Q2 GDP Unexpectedly Soars To 2.8%, Crushing Estimates As Core PCE Prints Hot
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 08:49 AM
After yesterday’s panicked oped by idiot Bill “recession is here, so cut rates before Trump is elected” Dudley, expectations were for a Q2 GDP print this morning at zero if not outright negative to greenlight a July rate cut. Of course, that oped is all that was needed for Kamala’s Bureau of Economic Analysis to release a blowout print (because we now have just 100 days to establish Kamalanomics as the next sliced bread) and that’s precisely what happened moments ago when the first estimate of Q2 GDP came in at a whopping 2.8%, double the final Q1 print of 1.4% (which was already the lowest print since the technical recession in Q2 2022)…
… and also came in more than 2-sigma higher than the consensus estimate of 2.0%; in fact, there was just one analyst estimate that was higher at 3.0%.
The hotter than expected Q1 print leaves H1 GDP at roughly 2.1%, a step down from the 3.1% pace of 2023.
The increase in real GDP primarily reflected an upturn in inventory investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and an acceleration in consumer spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in housing investment.
According to UBS, details suggest very strong growth: investment rose 8.4% q/q SSAR, the highest since Q3 2023. It looks like AI-related investment supported the growth as information processing equipment rose 10.2% q/q. Personal consumption rose 2.5% in Q2, better than the decline of 2.3% in Q1. Government spending rose 3.1% q/q, higher than 1.8% in Q1.
Some more details from the BEA report, which adds Compared to the first quarter,
The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care, housing and utilities, and recreation services. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were motor vehicles and parts, recreational goods and vehicles, furnishings and durable household equipment, and gasoline and other energy goods.
The increase in inventory investment was led by increases in wholesale trade and retail trade industries that were partly offset by a decrease in mining, utilities, and construction industries.
The increase in business investment reflected increases in equipment and intellectual property products that were partly offset by a decrease in structures.
Taking a closer look at the GDP components:
Personal Consumption contributed 1.57% to the 2.80% bottom line number, rising sharply from 0.98% in Q1.
Fixed Investment declined to 0.64% from 1.19% in Q1
Private Inventories added 0.82%, a sharp increase from the -0.42% destocking in Q1
Net trade subtracted 0.71% (Driven by -0.93% contribution from imports), roughly flat with the 0.65% in Q1
Government’s contribution to GDP rose notably from the 0.31% in Q1, to 0.53% in Q2.
Meanwhile, core PCE index fell to 2.9% y/y from 3.7%, but higher than 2.7% consensus. We also find that headline gross domestic purchases prices increased 2.3% in the second quarter, below the 2.6% estimate, after increasing 3.1% in the first quarter.
Bottom line: as UBS concludes “This is a very good print in detail” and completely crushes the “recession is nigh” narrative set yesterday by Bill Dudley, which sparked an epic unwind in the yen carry trade, and hammered virtually all other assets as a result.
end
still very high
(zerohedge)
US Continuing Jobless Claims Hover At 32-Month Highs
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 08:52 AM
Initial jobless claims dropped modestly (SA) from 245k to 235k last week (while on an NSA basis, claims crashed back to earth after last week’s spike)…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing jobless claims continue to hold above the 1.8 million Maginot Line – at their highest since Dec 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this enough for more rate-cuts?
end
Durable goods collapses and you can blame Boeing.
Boeing, Boeing, Gone: Did DEI Just Kill Durable Goods Orders?
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 08:43 AM
The headline US durable goods new orders print for preliminary June data was a disaster – plunging 6.6% MoM (vs expectations of 0.3% MoM rise!). That dragged goods orders down
Source: Bloomberg
However, through the rose-colored glasses of everything’s still awesome, core durable goods orders surprised to the upside (+0.5% MoM vs +0.1% exp, rebounding from May’s 0.1% MoM decline)…
While war spending rose, non-defense spending is plunging…
Source: Bloomberg
So what caused the collapse in headline durables? Just blame Boeing’s D(eadly)EI hiring practices again.
Doesn’t seem like it’s supporting the big AI Capex boom narrative too much?
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
This is troublesome; percentage of Americans that worry that they will not be able to pay their bills is higher than the great recession
(zerohedge/Michael Snyder)
The Percentage Of Americans That Worry They Won’t Be Able To Pay Their Bills Is Higher Than It Was During The Great Recession
Do you remember how painful the Great Recession was? 2008 and the years immediately following were definitely a very dark chapter in our history, but a new study has actually found that the percentage of Americans that worry they won’t be able to pay their bills is actually higher today than it was back then. Slowly but surely, our economic strength has been fading and our standard of living has been falling. Unfortunately, now we have reached a point where a very large portion of the U.S. population is really struggling.
According to a CNN poll that was just released, almost 40 percent of all U.S. adults “say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses”…
Many Americans regularly worry they won’t be able to make ends meet.
Nearly four in ten (39%) of US adults say they worry most or all of the time that their family’s income won’t be enough to meet expenses, according to a new CNN poll. That’s up from 28% who expressed those concerns in December 2021, and it’s similar to the numbers seen during the Great Recession (37%).
To cope, significant shares of Americans said they are adding side jobs, cutting down on driving and putting more expenses on credit cards.
If you would have asked me before I saw the results, I would have been quite confident that the number during the Great Recession would have been higher than the number in 2024.
Just like everyone else, I remember the Great Recession as such a painful time.
Sadly, the economic pain that we are experiencing now is just beginning.
Ordinary Americans from coast to coast are being absolutely crushed by rising prices, and that isn’t going to change any time soon.
In an article that CNN posted about this new survey, one woman that works for the CDC admitted that she was recently forced to move because costs have risen so aggressively…
“The grocery store is just outrageous right now. But it’s not just that. Everything has gone up. Clothing. My insurance,” said Angela Russell, an Ohio resident who works as a program analyst at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Russell, who has two adult children and three grandkids, said she recently moved out of her rental home in Cincinnati in favor of one in a rural area where the rent is cheaper.
Other recent surveys have come up with results that are even more alarming.
71% of Americans say they’re stressed by their ability to afford everyday expenses.
Americans most regularly spend money on groceries, phone bills, utilities, gasoline and rent/mortgage payments.
Grocery bills frustrate Americans more than any other regular expense. Utilities, rent/mortgage payments, gasoline and insurance payments round out the top five most annoying expenses.
Financial stress levels are highest among millennials (77%), followed by Generation Z (75%) and Generation X (74%). Baby boomers reported experiencing the least financial stress, although at 59% it was still more than half of those surveyed.
Those that follow my work regularly know that I tend to rant about rising prices at the grocery store.
Sometimes it is hard for me to believe that prices have gotten so high, and it appears that a lot of people out there agree with me.
Another recent survey found that 80 percent of Americans have observed a “notable increase” in grocery store prices…
According to a study by Qualtrics on behalf of Intuit Credit Karma, 80% of Americans say they have felt a “notable increase” in grocery costs in recent years. More than a quarter of respondents said the increased cost has led them to occasionally skip meals, while about one-third said they spend more than 60% of their monthly income on mandatory expenses such as food, utilities and rent.
Food has certainly become ridiculously expensive, but we actually spend far more money on housing.
Today, the typical household spends about 12 percent of total income on food and about 33 percent of total income on housing…
According to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the top three annual expenses for the average American household in 2022 (the most recent data available) were housing (33.3%), transportation (16.8%) and food (12.8%).
For most Americans, spending money in these areas is unavoidable.
Housing costs have been rising much faster than the overall rate of inflation, and we just learned that home prices reached yet another new all-time record high last month…
Home prices hit a new high in June for the second straight month, the latest sign that the housing market is unaffordable to millions of Americans.
The spring home-buying season, usually the busiest time of year for the housing market, was a dud this year. Home sales declined in June for the fourth straight time on a monthly basis. The combination of high prices and elevated mortgage rates has made homeownership less attractive to renters and deterred current homeowners from moving.
Meanwhile, homelessness in the United States is at the highest level ever recorded and it has been growing at the fastest pace ever recorded.
We just can’t keep going on like this.
Something has to give.
It appears to be inevitable that all of this economic pain will have a dramatic impact on the upcoming election. At this point, approximately three out of every five Americans believe that we are already in a recession right now…
You don’t need to be a financial genius to know that times are tough for plenty of Americans. With that in mind, a majority of people actually think the economy is doing even worse than the “experts” say it is. Three in five people believe that the U.S. is currently in a recession, even though we’re not officially in one according to the financial definition.
The survey of 2,000 Americans explored what’s driving this lack of consumer confidence in the economy. Inflation and the rising cost of living (68%) top the list of reasons why respondents believe the U.S. is in a recession, followed by friends and family members complaining about money (50%).
It is not an accident that this has happened.
For more than a decade, people like me have been relentlessly warning that the decisions that our leaders were making would have disastrous consequences, and that is exactly what has happened.
And if we stay on the path that we are on, it won’t be too long before we witness a meltdown of absolutely epic proportions.
STMicro Slashes Full-Year Outlook For Second Time Amid Auto Market Slowdown
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 10:20 AM
Shares of chipmaker STMicroelectronics tumbled in Europe after the company slashed its full-year revenue and margins guidance for the second time (the last cut was in April) on soft chip orders from the automotive industry. Demand troubles from STMicro’s industrial clients may signal a slowing global economy.
The Franco-Italian company, whose clients include Apple, Tesla, Robert Bosch, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motors, and General Motors, has revised its revenue forecast for the year to $13.2 billion to $13.7 billion, down from the previous range of $14 billion to $15 billion. Additionally, its gross margin is now expected to be around 40%, compared to the earlier estimate in the low 40s.
STMicro’s Supply Chain
Here’s a snapshot of the full-year outlook (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees net revenue $13.2 billion to $13.7 billion, saw $14 billion to $15 billion, estimate $14.29 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees gross margin 40%, estimate 41.1%
“During the quarter, contrary to our prior expectations, customer orders for industrial did not improve and automotive demand declined,” CEO Jean-Marc Chery wrote in the second quarter financial results. He said automotive revenues were lower than expected and offset higher sales in the company’s personal electronics business.
In a call with investors, the CEO said, “We are facing a longer and more pronounced correction in industrial than what we anticipated due to a progressive weakening of demand amplified by a severe inventory correction.”
The slowdown in the electric vehicle market has been a main pressure on chip companies with high exposure. Sliding EV sales have been visible from Tesla to Porsche to Ford Motor to Mercedes-Benz.
Interestingly enough, the CEO said an unnamed customer in China could spark significant growth for the company later this year:
“I confirm that H2 will be a growth driver for ST for all the components related to electrical vehicles, particularly for silicon carbide, and particularly everywhere, in China and also with our main customer.”
On Wall Street, JPMorgan analyst Sandeep Deshpande told clients that “Despite a small beat in the reported quarter, the company did not see the expected recovery in industrial orders and automotive orders declined,” adding, “The key question is, given the company’s very significant sequential cuts, will the market believe that the worst is over?”
Here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Stifel, Juergen Wagner (buy)
EPS estimates for 2024 could be cut by about 15% as inventory correction in automotive and industrial remains a burden
The downgrade is likely expected but the magnitude is slightly higher than feared
Bernstein, Sara Russo (outperform)
Automotive was lower than expected with microcontrollers and power & discrete segments struggling, while industrial also showed no improvement
Guidance does imply that 4Q will see sequential improvement versus 3Q, but after several quarters of missed guidance, it may be challenging for investors to hold confidence in that forecast
“The lack of clarity on the bottoming out of the cycle is what’s difficult” for STMicro
Citi, Andrew Gardiner (buy)
The outlook cut was more than expected, indicating a 6% downgrade to 2024 revenue estimates and even more for Ebit
Given the severity of two guidance cuts at 1Q and 2Q results, “the bottom of cycle cuts” is probably near
JPMorgan, Sandeep Deshpande (overweight)
Key question is whether the market will believe that worst is over after sequential cuts to outlook
End-market datapoints in automotive are still declining in the quarter, but “we believe we are close to the trough”
Here’s more from Goldman’s Alexander Duval:
We expect a negative stock price reaction to results, noting the miss on 3Q24 EBIT and significantly below consensus FY24 sales and GM guidance at the midpoint. The shares have underperformed EU Tech by -1%/-8% in the last 1M/3M, albeit we note that the stock is down -4% this week following peer NXP’s below cons next-quarter guidance. The guide down and commentary on automotive demand may also be taken as a potential negative read to peer Infineon, albeit IFX has significantly less Tesla exposure in EVs and greater exposure to the more dynamic China EV segment, and has already made cuts to its PSS and Industrial segment guidance. We also look for further colour on the call (8:30am UK time) on the demand trends specific product categories in the automotive business (e.g. EV and ADAS), inventories/lead times, pricing dynamics across various segments, and potential timelines for a recovery in industrial and consumer demand.
Duval’s 12-month price targets stand at 42.5 euros/ ADR $45.8 “based on an 8x CY25E EV/EBITDA multiple,” adding “there are risks to our view and price targets include a quicker/slower-than-expected inventory correction trough in consumer semis, accelerating/slowing Silicon Carbide momentum at competitors and evidence that currently favourable pricing can be sustainable.”
Shares of STMicro in Europe fell nearly 14%.
The quarterly results for chipmakers have been mixed so far.
Texas Instruments said Chinese electronics makers were increasing orders again after working through stockpiles. Meanwhile, Dutch chipmaker NXP Semiconductors NV reported revenue declines because of the auto industry slowdown. BE Semiconductor Industries reported a 20% decline in net profit for the second quarter because of sliding revenue and increased R&D expenses. Nvidia will be reporting earnings in late August.
As for the AI bubble and chip companies powering main equity indexes higher in recent months, well, Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown, warned the party is over, “If there was a bubble in the AI and Magnificent 7-part of the market, then last night saw it pop.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
Pro Palestinian and ultra left groups burn the American flag
Protests Erupt, American Flag Burned As Netanyahu Gives ‘Forever Alliance’ Speech
‘BURN THAT SHIT!’ Anti-Israel protesters set fire to the American flag in D.C.pic.twitter.com/4oe7nxq2dy
Summary: Seeking to shore up support for the war against Hamas in Gaza, and with Vice President Harris not in attendance and with dozens of Democrats also choosing to skip in protest, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed “this great citadel of democracy for the fourth time.” He also took time in the lengthy address to acknowledge rescued hostages and their families, including families of American hostages, present in the chamber for the speech.
“I will not rest until all of their loved ones are home! All of them” – he said of the hostages. We are “actively engaged” in intensive efforts to secure their release, the prime minister said. “Some of them are taking place right now.” He also recognized “President Biden’s “tireless efforts” and “heartfelt support” for Israel. Biden “dispatched two aircraft carriers to the Middle East to prevent a wider war,” Netanyahu said. Also acknowledging this politically chaotic and sensitive moment where Biden has bowed out of the presidential race, he called the US president “A proud Irish-American Zionist.” But he also by the end of the speech thanked Donald Trump for forging the historic Abraham Accords, and gave thanks for his surviving the assassination attempt against him.
Bibi is a master of optics, and he delivered a highly emotional reminder of the enormity and evil of the Oct.7 terror attacks. As expected, he linked 9/11, Oct. 7, and the Holocaust, but also highlighted American domestic protests and ‘anti-Jewish hate’. He described that ultimately this is a clash between “barbarism and civilization”, or “those who glorify death and those who sanctify life.” He said that on Oct.7 Hamas butchered 39 Americans, and likened it to having several 9/11’s in one day (compared to the population size of Israel). “Iran’s axis of terror confronts America, Israel, and its Arab friends,” he also said at one point, before linking Iran to US campus protests. He even mentioned the “frat brothers at the University of North Carolina” who tenaciously protected the American flag from raging anti-Israeli protesters. He ultimately accused “Iran of funding and promoting” anti-American and anti-Israel protests. “If Israel’s hands are tied, America is next,” he claimed.
He emphasized that America and Israel must stand together… “we win, they lose,” he said. Netanyahu also repeatedly went after the prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) during the speech, calling the court “downright dangerous”. He called the genocide allegations “utter complete nonsense” and a fabrication.
At one point he told the story of an Ethiopian-Israeli officer who ran eight miles to the border where he killed terrorists. “These are the soldiers of Israel, unbowed, undaunted, unafraid!” He also held up the heroic actions of a Muslim-Israeli officer serving in a Arab Bedouin unit.
As expected, much of his speech was focused on Iran, who he said is behind “all the terrorism” and “all the killing”. He argued that Israel is essentially a wall protecting the rest of the civilized world from Iran and its proxies, whether Hezbollah, the Houthis, or Iraqi Shia militants. At one point he even asserted that the Islamic Republic “brazenly threatened to assassinate President Trump.” He said Israel is at the “front lines” – which helps prevent more American boots on the ground.”
He proclaimed that Israel is “grateful” for US support, but also pleaded: “give us the tools faster” and we will end the war faster. He blamed Hamas for lack of ceasefire, saying the terror group must return all hostages. If they don’t, Bibi said, Hamas will be utterly destroyed.
Surprisingly, any protest attempt during the speech was minimal to non-existent, apart from a few shouts just after the close of the speech, with throughout was interspersed with long clapping bouts from Congress members. There were a few Progressive Dems holding up small signs, however, which appeared to have no impact…
Others decided to show their support by actually putting on a suit and tie…
Watch Live:
* * * end
update
and the world are supporting these idiots?
Cop Dragged, Assaulted, And American Flag Burned As Pro-Palestine Protesters Rage In DC
NEW: Pro-Palestine protesters filmed dragging and assaulting a police officer on the bricks outside of Union Station. The protesters were also filmed replacing the U.S. flag with the Palestinian flag before setting fire to the U.S. flag. U.S. Capitol Police was forced to issue a warning to Hill staffers, urging them to avoid sidewalks and to use underground tunnels when traveling between congressional buildings. Video:
Update (1815ET): Anti-Israel protesters were filmed dragging and assaulting a DC cop, and setting fire to an American flag in protest of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech.
end
This ought to be fun; Black Lives Matter wants a virtual snap primary process to vote for the Presidency
(zerohedge)
“We Don’t Live In Dictatorship”: Black Lives Matter Blasts Democrats For ‘Anointing’ Harris Without Vote
WEDNESDAY, JUL 24, 2024 – 10:00 PM
The radical left-wing Black Lives Matter group demanded on Tuesday that the Democratic National Committee host an informal, virtual snap primary across the country ahead of the DNC convention in August because the installation of Vice President Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee, without any public voting process threatens “the integrity of our democracy and the voices of Black voters.”
“The current political landscape is unprecedented, with President Biden stepping aside in a manner never seen before,” BLM wrote in a statement, explaining how the “Democratic Party elites and billionaire donors are attempting to manipulate Black voters by anointing Kamala Harris and an unknown vice president as the new Democratic ticket without a primary vote by the public.”
On Sunday, President Biden announced he would be exiting the presidential race and endorsed VP Harris to replace him at the top of the Democratic ticket to face former President Trump in the November presidential elections. Democrats have hemorrhaged all other talking points, such as the miracles of ‘Bidenomics,’ and resorted to this race is all about ‘defending democracy.’
Notice how Trump’s rising election odds via PredictIt data prompted an immediate response from leftist corporate media outlets, resulting in a surge of articles about how Democrats were “defending democracy” from Trump.
Meanwhile, BLM articulated very strongly that picking Harris without a public vote is a “blatant disregard for democratic principles” and “unacceptable.”
“We have no idea where Kamala Harris stands on the issues, now that she has assumed Joe Biden’s place, and we have no idea of the record of her potential vice president because we don’t even know who it is yet,” the leftist group said.
BLM emphasized:
“We do not live in a dictatorship. Delegates are not oligarchs. Any attempt to evade or override the will of voters in our primary system—no matter how historic the candidate—must be condemned. We demand an informal, virtual snap primary now that the incumbent president is no longer in the running.”
It gets better…
“For the past few years, the Democratic Party has proclaimed that “democracy is on the ballot” in an effort to persuade Black voters to participate in the upcoming general election. They have presented this as the most serious election for democracy in our lifetimes. However, democracy isn’t just an ideal to be protected against Republicans; it must also be safeguarded from erosions within the Democratic Party.”
And better.
“Installing Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee and an unknown vice president without any public voting process would make the modern Democratic Party a party of hypocrites.”
Again, better.
“Imagine our first Black woman president not having won some sort of public nomination process. The pundits would immediately label it as affirmative action or a DEI move, and any progress made by a President Harris would be on shaky foundations. If Kamala Harris is to be the nominee, it must be through a process that upholds democratic principles and public participation.”
Shalomyah Bowers, one of BLM’s leaders, said:
“This is about the nominating process. Those of us who care about the principles of democracy cannot be serious about installing Kamala Harris and an unknown vice president as the Democratic nominee without any semblance of a people-powered process. Not delegates and party elites, but actually asking communities across the country if they believe this should be the democratic ticket. Anything less is unserious in the quest for democracy. Democracies are stronger when political parties operate with primary systems that allow for genuine participation.”
Oh, the irony: the Democratic Party, once the champion of voter rights and freedom of speech, now finds itself accused of voter suppression and disenfranchisement. Like BLM said, “Democratic Party elites and billionaire donors”…
Soros.
Are attempting to install Harris, all in the name of “saving democracy” against Trump. Yet, in doing so, they undermine the principles they claim to protect.
Here is what X users are saying about this:
Nothing says “DEMOCRACY” like a last-minute bait and switch.
Your voice and your vote DON’T matter!
Glad to see y’all actually being on the right side
The system removed Joe and installed Kamala and left voters out of the decision
A Harris Presidency Would Be The Final Death Blow To US Border Security
WEDNESDAY, JUL 24, 2024 – 09:20 PM
During the first three years of Joe Biden’s presidency one issue was dodged and deflected more than any other – Illegal immigration and the unprotected southern border. While the stagflation crisis remains at the top of the list of greatest concerns among the majority of Americans, almost every poll of non-economic problems puts immigration at forefront of people’s minds.
The two things are indelibly linked: Mass illegal immigration helps to feed the fires of economic crisis and inflation. When your house is in economic decline the last thing you want to do is invite millions of unskilled freeloading migrants into your living room to sleep on your couch and eat from your fridge.
Biden (along with the establishment media) spent an incredible amount of energy and resources denying and hiding the reality of the border situation. When El Paso, TX was overrun with tens of thousands of illegals and the story could not be suppressed, conservatives demanded that Biden or Kamala Harris visit the region and see the danger for themselves. Initially, they refused.
When Biden did finally fly to El Paso the city had been sterilized of all migrants and ironically, a border wall had been erected using storage containers and barbed wire guarded by armed soldiers. Biden then enjoyed a quick photo op with border patrol agents and pretended as if there was never a problem.
During this period Harris was responsible for border related policy and PR. She was often referred to as the “Border Czar” but today Democrats deny this was her position. Harris had essentially taken over all public and media engagement on the border crisis, but this is a role Democrats would now prefer to diminish as she runs for president.
One would think her first task would be to travel to the US/Mexico border and speak with locals and border agents about how to better secure ports of entry. Points of invasion should have been addressed and the incentives motivating illegals to come to the US should have been examined. This didn’t happen, ostensibly because doing so would be an admission that there was indeed a crisis in progress.
Instead, Harris traveled to Central American countries and launched her “Central America Forward” initiative. She argued:
“Most people don’t want to leave home, and when they do it is for one of two reasons: because they are fleeing some harm, or because to stay at home means they cannot satisfy the basic needs of their family…We have the capacity to give people hope and the belief that help is on the way.”
Her office said US investment would create more than 70,000 jobs and provide internet access for more than 4.5 million people. In other words, her solution was to give away even more American taxpayer dollars to pay off possible migrants before they come to the border.
The program ignored the greater issue of welfare subsidies and housing subsidies offered to “asylum seekers” as well as the 2-year-long waiting list for immigration courts to even address new asylum cases. During that time, illegals have been allowed to stay in the US and enjoy numerous handouts. Over 60% of non-citizen households access US welfare programs that they rarely pay into.
Biden and Harris fought for the end of Title 42, the Trump order that stopped migrants from living in the US while their asylum cases were processed. They also tried to sabotage Governor Greg Abbott’s efforts to defend the Texas Border by creating a razor wire barrier. Abbott has already put a dramatic dent in illegal crossing in the past year (a drop of 74%), and he promised to triple his razor wire projects should Kamala Harris become president.
In a 2019 interview with National Public Radio, Harris suggested as president she would declare all illegal border-crossers refugees despite unconfirmed claims, even if that meant ignoring the law. She argued:
“I disagree with any policy that would turn America’s back on people who are fleeing harm. I frankly believe that it is contrary to everything that we have symbolically and actually said we stand for. And so, I would not enforce a law that would reject people and turn them away without giving them a fair and due process to determine if we should give them asylum and refuge.”
Harris also insinuated that ICE agents were a symbol of racism, stating in a Senate confirmation hearing for Trump nominee Ronald Vitiello that:
“Certain communities saw ICE as comparable to the Ku Klux Klan for administering its power in a way that is causing fear and intimidation, particularly among immigrants and specifically among immigrants coming from Mexico and Central America…”
Harris visited the border just once as Vice President, traveling to El Paso after immense public pressure. Her plan to control mass immigration by “going to the source” and paying migrants to stay home failed. Illegal crossings continued to skyrocket.
Putting a stop to the border surge would require threatening Central American nations with economic retaliation should they continue to allow migrant caravans to cross their lands and travel to the US. It would require a complete moratorium on asylum applications and an end to welfare subsidies. Finally, illegals would have to be deported in large numbers in order to send a message that coming to America without going through proper channels is a waste of time and energy.
Harris will do none of these things. In fact, her history shows that as president she will do the opposite and likely surpass Biden in border degradation. Where Biden tried to hide his open border agenda from the public, Harris will be brazen and unapologetic. She will gaslight the public and suggest the crisis is actually to their benefit. She will rationalize open borders as a humanitarian necessity.
end
Elon Musk Says Report Of $45 Million Monthly Donation To Pro-Trump Super PAC Was “Made Up Fiction By WSJ”
WEDNESDAY, JUL 24, 2024 – 07:20 PM
Elon Musk was spotted Wednesday in the US Capitol Building ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s speech to lawmakers as the war in Gaza continues into its ninth month.
A reporter asked Musk, “Are you still going to donate to Trump? Are you still donating $45 million?”
Musk replied, “At no point did I say that I was donating $45 million a month for Trump. That was a fiction made up by the Wall Street Journal.”
Footage of the interaction between the reporter and Musk was posted on X by Collin Rugg.
NEW: Elon Musk blasts the Wall Street Journal, says he never said he was donating $45 million a month to Donald Trump. Reporter: “Are you still gonna donate to Trump? Are you still donating $45 million?” Musk: “At no point did I say that I was donating $45 million a month for Trump. That was a fiction made up by the Wall Street Journal.”
·
5.8M Views
NEW: Elon Musk blasts the Wall Street Journal, says he never said he was donating $45 million a month to Donald Trump.
Reporter: “Are you still gonna donate to Trump? Are you still donating $45 million?”
Elon Musk confirms that he created the America PAC. But he says that the idea that he is not putting $45 million a month into the group. “What’s been reported in the media is simply not true. I am not donating $45 million a month to Trump.”
On Wednesday, a federal judge rejected a motion by ABC News and George Stephanopoulos to dismiss the defamation lawsuit filed against them by former President Donald Trump.
As reported by The Hill, the lawsuit stems from an interview in March where Stephanopoulos, while talking to Congresswoman Nancy Mace (R-S.C.), repeatedly described President Trump as being “liable for rape” following the judgement in a civil lawsuit filed by disgraced former author E. Jean Carroll. The jury in that case technically found Trump liable for sexual assault, but not for rape.
In her 21-page ruling, U.S. District Judge Cecilia Altonaga rejected ABC’s multiple claims to protection, including their assertion that they were not liable for defamation under the “fair reporting privilege.” The network pointed to a prior ruling by U.S. District Judge Lewis Kaplan, a Clinton appointee, who previously ruled that it did not constitute defamation when Carroll herself described Trump as guilty of rape, claiming that the legal distinction “is minimal.”
“Here, of course, New York has opted to separate out a crime of rape; and Stephanopoulos’s statements dealt not with the public’s usage of that term, but the jury’s consideration of it during a formal legal proceeding,” Judge Altonaga, an appointee of George W. Bush, said in her ruling, determining that the issue at hand was whether or not Stephanopoulos’ statements were substantially true.
“Once again, the Court does not find that a reasonable jury must — or even is likely to — conclude Stephanopoulos’s statements were defamatory,” Altonaga continued. “A jury may, upon viewing the segment, find there was sufficient context. A jury may also conclude Plaintiff fails to establish other elements of his claim … But a reasonable jury could conclude Plaintiff was defamed and, as a result, dismissal is inappropriate.”
Stephanopoulos referred to Trump as “liable for rape” 10 different times in the interview with Mace, even as the congresswoman pushed back on his assertions. The lawsuit against ABC and Stephanopoulos, which was filed in Miami, is seeking an unspecified amount of money in compensation for damages.
President Trump declared the ruling to be a “big win” for his case. In a post on his Truth Social website, Trump said that “before you know it, the fake news media will be forced by the courts to start telling the truth.”
END
Newsom Issues EO For California Cities To Remove Homeless Encampments After Supreme Court Ruling
THURSDAY, JUL 25, 2024 – 01:05 PM
After years of encouraging rampant crime and degeneracy among the homeless population, and just in time for an election talking point, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order on Thursday for the removal of homeless encampments across the state.
The order directs state agencies to remove thousands of tents and makeshift shelters along freeways, shopping center parking lots, and city parks – and puts the decision in the hands of local authorities.
Newsom’s EO comes after a decision by the Supreme Court earlier this summer which allows cities to enforce bans on sleeping outside in public spaces, AP reports.
The case was the most significant on the issue to come before the high court in decades and comes as cities across the country have wrestled with the politically complicated issue of how to deal with a rising number of people without a permanent place to live and public frustration over related health and safety issues.
“We must act with urgency to address dangerous encampments,” Newsom said in a statement.
The Supreme Court’s decision is related to a lower court’s ruling on a case known as Grants Pass, which blocked cities from clearing encampments.
Earlier this week we noted that San Francisco has already taken steps to craft policies which allow officials to begin sweeping encampments, according to Mayor London Breed. As the Epoch Times reports, officials are contemplating options with the city attorney’s office and more information will be shared soon, according to Ms. Breed.
“This decision by the Supreme Court will help cities like San Francisco manage our public spaces more effectively and efficiently,” Ms. Breed said in a June 28 press release. “This decision recognizes that cities must have more flexibility to address challenges on our streets.”
She said discussions underway aim to reduce homelessness while finding people mental health treatment and services to improve the quality of life for all San Franciscans.
“[Illegal camping] is not healthy, safe, or compassionate for people on the street, and it’s not acceptable for our neighborhoods,” Ms. Breed said.
One San Francisco local said he supports increased enforcement because of what he described as “filthy” conditions in some areas.
“The city has become known for feces on the sidewalks and dirty streets,” John Walker told The Epoch Times July 22. “Something needs to be done.”
After the high court’s ruling was announced in June, the state’s Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals quickly moved to discontinue the injunction blocking homeless camp sweeps.
San Francisco City Attorney David Chiu said the legal changes will allow the city to better manage its streets and improve public safety.
KING REPORT
The King Report July 25, 20245 Issue 7291
Independent View of the News
Due to disappointment with Tesla and Google’s results, Mag 7/Fangs tumbled on Wednesday. The general stock market declined in concert. Beaucoup traders got long Fangs, trading sardines, and other equities for the expected big rally that usually appears prior to and during Fang reporting season.
Yesterday, pattern buyers dumped stocks and feared what the reaction would be to other Fang results.
ESUs opened sharply lower on Tuesday night due to Tesla and Google’s results. After trading sideways for 5 hours, ESUs broke lower just after midnight ET. After a quick 15-handle drop, ESUs stabilized and traded sideways until they broke down after 8:14 ET. ESUs intractably declined until they hit a low of 5474.25 at 15:29 ET. The late manipulation took ESUs to 5788.25 at 15:40 ET. Selling resumed; ESUs sank to a new low of 5462.00 at 15:54 ET. A late manipulation pushed ESUs to 5473.25 at 16:00 ET.
US 5-year ($70B) auction results: 4.121% vs. 4.11% WI; reportedly the Fed monetized $3.9B of the 5s.
USUs and bonds tumbled after the poor 5-year auction. Bloomberg won the bad timing award.
Treasury Yields Slide as Dudley Fuels Speculation on Fed Cuts – BBG 13:37 ET
Treasury 30-year yield Exceeds 5-year by Most (38.5bps) Since May 2023 – BBG 14:10 ET
June New Home Sales 617k; 640k expected; prior to 621k from 619k
July S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 49.5, 51.6 expected; Services 56, 54.9 expected; Composite 55, 54.2 exp.
Positive aspects of previous session The DJUA rallied smartly
Negative aspects of previous session The Nasdaq dropped as much as 3%, the biggest decline since December 2022; Naz 100 -3.65% The S&P 500 Index sank 2.3%, the biggest decline since September 2022 Fangs got hammered, led by Tesla (-12.33%, biggest drop since 9/20) Fangs: Broadcom -7.59%, NVDA -6.8%, Meta -5.61%, Snowflake -5.26%, Google -5.04% After a modest early rally, USUs turned negative near Noon ET and fell as much as 1 5/32 Gasoline and oil rallied sharply.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Has the AI/Mag 7 bubble burst?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5451.72 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5508.04; 5419.98
@amconmag: Elon Musk will not donate to Donald Trump’s campaign. Musk says reports that he would pledge $45 million a month to Trump are “a fiction made up by the Wall Street Journal.”
Imagine that: The US media fabricating stuff and reporting untruths!
@BasedTorba: Approximately 30 minutes ago, Gab learned that Thomas Crooks, the deranged Joe Biden supporter who attempted to assassinate President Donald Trump, may have had an account on our platform. We are unable to confirm that the account in question actually belonged to him.The account was last active on the site in 2021. As far as we are aware, the account did not use the site to send any direct messages. He posted on the site nine (9) times total. While the account made very few posts on the site, the majority of them were in support of President Biden. A number of posts in particular expressed support for President Biden’s COVID lockdowns, border policies and executive orders. We have saved the account data pending receipt of a search warrant. We are disclosing this information at significant personal and business risk. If the past is any guide, defying the D.C. consensus by publishing the first definitive evidence that the shooter was a Biden supporter – something Democrats and their media allies have tried to cover up and deny at every turn – has a high probability of resulting in significant political and media backlash… https://x.com/BasedTorba/status/1816189333432590715
Biden ‘absolutely’ sharp enough for second term, no ‘coverup’ of mental decline, White House insists – “It has nothing to do with his health,” Jean-Pierre claimed. “The president’s going to speak to this directly to the American people tonight in prime time.”… https://trib.al/6yOf5qc
In an address to the nation, Biden risibly framed his exit as an attempt to unify the US. “This is the best way to unite our nation. Over the next six months I will be focused on doing my job as president… The great thing about America is here, kings and dictators do not rule… I will continue to lower costs for hard-working families and grow the economy. I will keep defending our personal freedoms… from the right to vote to the right to choose… the defense of democracy is more important than any title…” (Joe gave no details on his exit decision and said he will work to cure cancer & reform the SCOTUS.)
The Big Guy told these whoppers: “When you elected me in this office, I promised to always level with you, to tell you the truth… We’re also securing our border.” Joe mentioned ‘democracy’ at least six times, even though he was just jettisoned by the Dem Party Establishment and its big donors.
@AriFleischer: This is a political speech, not a farewell address. He’s really not explaining why he dropped out. He’s just taking credit for everything. (PS – Joe bragged about this economic plans.)
Today – US equity indices experienced profound technical damage. Mag 7 stocks suffered worse.
The momentum is now on the downside for bonds and stocks – despite rate cut euphoria. This should be very disturbing for bulls. Plus, an increasing number of pundits are exclaiming that the AI bubble has burst. Usually when a bubble bursts, there is a rabid rebound after the first breathtaking decline. Panic selling often appears after the low from the first significant decline is breached.
There are no Fang earnings due to today; so, there could be a rebound rallying in Mag 7 and trading sardines. There is a heavy slate of transport company results due. This will impact the DJTA.
NQUs are +97.50 (playing for rebound); ESUs are +17.25; and USUs are +8/32 at 20:08 ET.
Expected economic data: Q3 GDP 2.0%, Consumption 2.0%, GDP Price Index 2.6%, Core PCE 2.7%; Initial Jobless Claims 238, Continuing Claims 1.868m; June Durable Goods 0.3% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.2%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.2%, Shipments 0.2%; July KC Fed Mfg. Activity -5
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5428; 100-day MA: 5285; 150-day MA: 5150; 200-day MA: 4969 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,375; 100-day MA: 39,062; 150-day MA: 38,740; 200-day MA: 37,709 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5427.13 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5379.87 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5645.51 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5512.68 triggers a buy signal
The polls are essentially back to where they were before the debate. Trump has a small lead in national polls but that is irrelevant. The Swing States determine the election; and Trump shows better there. After all, Team Biden took a chance on a debate because Biden was trailing and fading in Swing States.
@IAPolls2022: NEW CNN/SSRS POLL: Donald Trump: 49%; Kamala Harris: 46% 1,631 RV | July 22-23 (RV = Registered Voters, which overstates Dems strength; we don’t know poll demographics)
@PhilipWegmann: Republican operative texts me this McCormick ad and says, “What voters down ballot will be seeing in every Senate race from NV to PA until November”: (Kamala on the issues) https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1815903712180621734
Obama doesn’t believe Kamala Harris can beat Trump, which is why he hasn’t endorsed her “Obama’s very upset because he knows she can’t win,” the Biden family source told The Post. “Obama knows she’s just incompetent — the border czar who never visited the border, saying that all migrants should have health insurance. She cannot navigate the landmines that are ahead…”… After Biden’s ouster, Obama — who did not return a request for comment Wednesday — wanted Arizona Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly “at the top of the ticket” when the Democratic National Convention is held next month, the source said… https://trib.al/2mFgyt7
DNC gives would-be Harris rivals 3 days to declare (Obama has lost control of the process!) The virtual roll call, which must be completed by Aug. 7 to comply with Ohio ballot access deadlines, could start as early as next Thursday… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/24/dnc-harris-rivals-declare-00170983
For months, reports appeared that Biden would be dumped, and Obama would act as a king maker in his adopted hometown of Chicago at the Dem Convention. Other reports had Obama political brain David Axelrod as advocating that Biden should debate Trump at the earliest debate time in history, so there would be ample time for his replacement to campaign. However, it appears that the Clintons have outflanked and outfoxed Team Obama. They quickly endorsed Kamala. Someone then got Democratic delegates to quickly pledge their votes to Harris.
We wonder what Kamala promised the Clintons. AG Hillary Clinton? Sec of State Hillary Clinton?
@MZHemingway: Kamala Harris, who bragged about getting 3K at her rally today, is having her administration’s Secret Service tell Trump to stop having his massive rallies.
Trump has been holding massive outdoor rallies for about 8 years. Now this is a problem?
@charliekirk11: Reliable sources confirm to Chris LaCivita that Kamala Harris will pick Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her VP. (To win PA; but this will upset the antisemitic wing of the party.) (Though Holder was Obama’s AG, it was Bill Clinton that brought Holder to prominence.)
Conservatives praise ‘brilliant’ swing state GOP ad attacking Harris: ‘Here’s the blueprint’ The ad has over 1.5 million views in about 24 hours In the ad, Kamala is quoted calling for the elimination of the filibuster, banning fracking, decriminalizing illegal immigration, abolishing ICE, defunding the police, mandating a gun buyback program and other liberal policies… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/conservatives-praise-brilliant-swing-state-gop-ad-attacking-harris-blueprint
@RNCResearch: Wisconsin swing voters SLAM Kamala Harris for covering up Biden’s cognitive decline: “If she’s willing to hide that type of information — once she’s in office, now what’s she willing to hide for herself?”https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1816132012752998676
At a Charlotte, NC rally on Wednesday evening, Trump pounded Harris for overseeing the border debacle, casting the deciding vote for Bidenomics (and creating inflation), being a SF leftist, not knowing about Joe’s cognitive decline; holding a radical position on abortion: abortion up to birth; being antisemitic; not passing the bar exam, and several other leftist positions.
Inflation and immigration remain the two top issues. So, the media has already moved to aid & abet Harris – and gaslight Americans about Kamala. Covering up Joe’s cognitive decline is a wild card.
@bennyjohnson: TRUMP: “Kamala Harris has been caught red-handed perpetrating the biggest scandal in American history… For three and half years, Harris shamelessly lied to the public to cover up Joe’s mental unfitness…” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1816254394624520590 “If Kamala will lie to you so brazenly about Joe Biden’s mental incapacity, then she will lie to you about anything. She can never, ever be trusted.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1816247938240372883
Trump also rebuked the media for glorifying Kamala’s modest crowd in a Milwaukee high school gym.
Kamala Harris picked illegal migrant for jobs program who brutally attacked woman while she was San Francisco DAhttps://trib.al/1DWoV7O
To shield Kamala from her abysmal record as Biden’s border czar, elements of the regime media are claiming that Biden never put Kamala in charge of securing the border and was never tabbed ‘border czar’ – even though they made those exact claims in past articles! The US media is beyond parody or ridicule!
@WesternLensman: Legacy Media, today: Joe Biden never put Kamala Harris in charge of the border crisis. Legacy Media, 2021: Joe Biden has announced Kamala Harris “will lead the effort to tackle a sudden surge of migrants at the US southern border.” https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1816092293541052619 Raw video of Joe Biden asking Kamala Harris “to lead the effort” to stem the tide of illegals at the southern border. https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1816092296061804910
Axios Accuses GOP of Fabricating Kamala Harris’s ‘Border Czar’ Title — 3 Years After Reporting She Was Biden’s Border Czar – The problem for Kight is that in March 2021, she also authored an article with the headline “Biden puts Harris in charge of border crisis” and the lede “President Biden is putting Vice President Harris in charge of addressing the migrant surge at the U.S.-Mexico border, senior administration officials announced on Wednesday.”… Yet another Axios article from that April, meanwhile, stated as fact that “Harris, appointed by Biden as border czar, said she would be looking at the ‘root causes’ that drive migration.”… https://www.mediaite.com/news/axios-accuses-gop-of-fabricating-kamala-harriss-border-czar-title-3-years-after-reporting-she-was-bidens-border-czar/
DJT repeatedly called Kamala ‘border czar’ at his NC rally, an ‘in your face disgrace’ to the MSM!
@mazemoore: June 25, 2021. VP Harris holds a press conference from El Paso to announce that her team is making progress on fixing the border crisis. She also criticized Trump’s “Remain in Mexico” policy. Three years later: Kamala had nothing to do with managing the border crisis. https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1816145696556240914
@RNCResearch: CBS: “You’re considered the most liberal United States senator.” KAMALA: “I— somebody said that, and it was actually Mike Pence on the debate stage…” CBS: “Actually, nonpartisan GovTrack has rated you as the most liberal senator.” KAMALA: *blank stare* https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1816188767809704417
@alx: Insane that the media just thinks they can rewrite history and then gaslight the American people without pushback.
@elonmusk: About 3 weeks ago, the media told you that Biden was “sharp as a tack.” 2 days ago, the poor guy was basically forced at gunpoint to resign as Dem nominee. His staff weren’t even informed. Now they say Kamala is the best thing ever.
Florida Dem. likens calling Vice President Kamala Harris a ‘DEI hire’ to using the n-wordhttps://trib.al/3QUuWNQ
But Joe admitted that Kamala was a DEI VP. Why would The Big Guy use a racial slur on his own VP?
@JackPosobiec: Here is Joe Biden saying he selected Kamala Harris because of the values of “the values of diversity, equality, inclusion.” https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1816191435793916055 If DEI is a good thing, why are they upset when you call someone a DEI hire?
When DEI was an honor badge, the media and Dems wove it around themselves. Now that DEI is unfavorable, illegal per the SCOTUS, and arouses ‘unqualified’ suspicions, Dems and the media are…
Dems and the regime media are reusing their Obama defense: If you criticize Obama, you’re racist. If you criticize Harris, you’re racist and sexist and misogynist.
@TPV_John: Listen to ABC News correspondent Pierre Thomas make the Freudian slip of the CENTURY…“Our audience is about to see the frantic seconds in the moments after the GOVERNMENT tried to kill Former President Trump.” https://x.com/TPV_John/status/1816154498370290163
@sentdefender: Pro-Hamas Supporters at Union Station in Washington, D.C. took down and burned the American Flag before Replacing it with the Palestinian Flag. (1968-like images are bad for Dems!) https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1816197294145912993
@TrumpDailyPosts: I watched the Congressional Hearing today as Christopher Wray was asked the question whether or not he noticed any Cognitive Degeneration in his many conversations with Crooked Joe Biden and, despite the fact that Special Counsel Robert Hur said, effectively, that Joe Biden is INCOMPETENT, with LITTLE MEMORY, etc., Wray said that “it is not something I observed during my interactions with him, which were uneventful and unremarkable,” essentially stating that he found nothing wrong, mentally or physically, with “Joe.” If that is the case, Director Wray should resign immediately from the FBI, and stop “sweet talking” Congress every time he goes up, which he loves to do, because anybody can see that Joe Biden is cognitively and physically challenged, and if you can’t see that, you sure as hell can’t be running the FBI – Unless, that is, you want to illegally lead the Raid on Mar-a-Lago. Wray has to resign, and NOW, for LYING TO CONGRESS!
harveyorganblog.com 
