AUGUST 1//GOLD CLOSED UP $9.15 TO $2437.10/HOWEVER THE REST OF THE PRECIOUS SUCCUMBED TO THEM PAYING HOMAGE TO THE DOW LOSING 500 POINTS//SILVER CLOSED DOWN 46 CENTS TO $28,29/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $12.90 TO $964.00 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $32.10 TO $904.25/GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM BILL HOLTER/ECONOMIC COMMENTARY AND A GOOD ONE FROM MICHAEL EVERY/ISRAEL VS HAMAS: HOW THE ISRAELI’S ASSASSINATED HANIYEH//DEIF CONFIRMED DEAD//RUSSIA LANDS A DEAL WITH THE USA TO RELEAE PRISONERS/UKRAINE DEFAULTS/COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/MARK CRISPIN MILLER/SLAY NEWS ETC//USA APPREHENDS 3 PALESTIAN TERRORISTS/JOBLESS CLAIMS IN THE USA RISE//HERSHEY STOCK FALLS AS THEY STATE DISCRETIONARY SPENDING BY CITIZENS IS FALTERING//SWAMP NEWS FOR YOU TONIGHT//
099 H DB AG 996 118 H MACQUARIE FUT 37 152 C DORMAN TRADING 2 190 H BMO CAPITAL 281 323 C HSBC 43 363 C WELLS FARGO SEC 11 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 36 555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 75 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 11 28 661 C JP MORGAN 518 661 H JP MORGAN 257 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4 690 C ABN AMRO 43 726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 20 2 737 C ADVANTAGE 27 4 880 C CITIGROUP 71 905 C ADM 29
TOTAL: 1,249 1,249
JPMorgan stopped 775/1249
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 1249 NOTICES FOR 124,900 OZ or 3.885 TONNES
total notices so far: 10,475 contracts for 1,047,300 Oz (32.575 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 15,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 422 for 2.110 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $9.15 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 846,05 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.46 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV//
// INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 462.204 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 149 CONTRACTS TO 151,288 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS ACCOMPANYING OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.45 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. OUR HUGE LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANIED OUR HUGE NET GAIN OF 962 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WE HAD A MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE OI LOSS SIMILAR TO THE COMEX GOLD TRADING. WE, AGAIN HAD MAJOR SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE AS WELL AS THE MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MENTIONED ABOVE. WE HAD A HUGE 850 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 904 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE DEMAND FOR SILVER WAS JUST TOO GREAT FOR OUR BANKERS TO CONTAIN AND THUS THE STEEP RISE.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 904 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.45) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 731 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A 850 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 3.070 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 3.070 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 904 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL removed 261 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAYS, total 850 contracts: OR 4.250 MILLION OZ (850 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 4.250 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 425 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 149 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 850 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.005 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 65,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 3.070 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 731 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 904 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE MAJOR PORTION OF THE SMALL COMEX OI LOSS DESPITE THE HUGE RISE IN PRICE//// MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (904) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 15,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6710 OI CONTRACTS TO 504,204 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 6046 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (6710 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $20.95 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 25,900 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE GUYS TOOK IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF GOLD IN LONDON.
NEW STANDING 65.524 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $20.95 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 4957 OI CONTRACTS (15.418 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES., WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1253 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 510,250
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4937 CONTRACTS WITH 6710 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1253 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1089 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 2908 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1753 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 6710 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4957 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,900 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER
//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO: /AUGUST 65.524 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2908 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
JULY
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 1253 CONTRACTS OF 125,300 OZ OR 3.387 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 1253 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 3.387 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 3.387 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.943% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 3.387 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 149 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,288 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 850 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 850 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 850 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 149 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 850 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 731 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 3.655 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE $.45 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.22% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 39.64 PTS OR 0.23% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 975.49 OR 2.49%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.28%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2468 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2575/ Oil UP TO 78.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.35 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAAKER
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6710 CONTRACTS TO 504,204 DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $20.95 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST A HUGE NUMBER OF SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS PANICKED AND COVERED AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES.
OUR LONDONERS BOUGHT MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AND THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY T PLUS ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 1753 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST1753 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1753 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 4937 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1753 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 6710 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE RISE IN PRICE OF $20.95/WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TUESDAY NIGHT TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1753 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (65.524 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 65.524 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $20.95 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THUS THE REASON FOR THE LOW GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF GOLD
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 15.418 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,900 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING: 65.524 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.524 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $20.95
WE HAVE REMOVED 6046 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4937 CONTRACTS OR 493,700 OZ (15.418
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
10473 notices 1047300 oz 32.575 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 1
i)out of JPMorgan: 32,275.302 oz
1002 kilobars
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 32,275.302 oz
Adjustment dealer to customer; JPMorgan 9645.300 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 11,842 contracts having LOST 9483 contracts.
We had 9224 contracts served on Wednesday, so we lost 259 contracts or 25,900 oz was ferried over to London via the exchange for physical route to take immediate delivery over in London.
SEPT. GAINED 111 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5234 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER LOST 2162 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 55,162 CONTRACTS
We had 1249 contracts filed for today representing 124,900 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1249 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 775 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,473) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of August 11842( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1249 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,106,600 OZ OR 65.524 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (10,473 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (11842 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1249) x 100 oz which equals 2,106,600 oz (65.524 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.524 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,868,170.301 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,154,570.683 ( 253,64 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,718,589.618 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,493084 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 201.96 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 1/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE AUG 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,190,610.421 OZ oz
Asahi
Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
595,816.000 oz
JPM
No of oz served today (contracts)
3 CONTRACT(S) (15,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
192 contracts (0.960 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
422 Contracts (2.110 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) into JPMorgan:595,816.000
total customer deposit 595,816.000 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134,217million oz/302.143million or 44.37%
adjustment:0;
customer withdrawals: 2
i) Out of DELAWARE 594,824.421 oz
ii) Out of ASAHI 595,816.000 oz
total withdrawal: 1,190,640.421 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.019 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 302.142 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 195 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 406 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 419 NOTICES SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 13 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 65,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX ON THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 1250 CONTRACTS TO 104,207 SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH
OCTOBER SAW ITS FIRST GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 1 CONTRACT AND THUS WE HAD 1 CONTRACT FOR OCTOBER.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 15,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 68,368 very good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 422 x 5,000 oz = 2.110 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 195) and the number of notices served upon today 3 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month: 422 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (195)x number of notices served upon today minus (3)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.070 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 3.070 million oz.
There are 70.019 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 28 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $16.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 26 WITH GOLD UP $23.70 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
JUNE 24 WITH GOLD UP$14.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A STRONG WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 831.93 TONNES
JUNE 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $37.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:/ A MAMMOTH 8.34 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR DEPOSIT/NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 833.65 TONNES
JUNE 20 WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
JUNE 18 WITH GOLD UP $17.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/://NEW TOTAL TONIGHT 825.31 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 846.05 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ
JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 28. WITH SILVER UP $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 913,000 OZ FROM THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.265 MILLION OZ./
JUNE 27. WITH SILVER UP $0.01//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 26. WITH SILVER UP $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE WITHDRAWAL OF 2.512 MILLION OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 438.178 MILLION OZ.//
JUNE 25. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.63//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 7.835 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.// /INVENTORY RISE TO 440.69 MILLION OZ.//WHAT AN ABSOLUTE FRAUD.
JUNE 24. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.05//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.104 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS TO 432.835 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 21. WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 434.935 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 20. WITH SILVER UP $1.17//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A DEPOSIT OF 5.164 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 434.929 MILLION OZ.
JUNE 18. WITH SILVER UP $0.21//NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY’ A WITHDRAWAL .730 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 429.775 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 462.204 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
end
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
BILL HOLTER
technical analysis
Another push higher?
Here we go again, with another try! I posted these 3 charts back on May 11, I suggested we were about to move sharply higher in all 3 markets. We did, silver moved better than 20% in roughly 3 weeks. I posted them again at the beginning of July suggesting another move higher. Gold and the HUI index made new highs (the HUI is a new high since 2016, Gold is all time high). Silver got whacked at $32, so did not quite make a new high for this move. After a healthy pullback, here we are again! Gold and the HUI have MACD’s (bottom and right on each chart) in the process of crossing over again to the upside, silver is working on it and needs another 2-5 days to resolve. We got as low as a 74-1 gold to silver ratio at one point, we are now back up to 84-1. Silver is only 10 times more plentiful than gold, to see this ratio come down to 40-1 or lower should be expected. From here, a 40-1 ratio would mean that silver outperforms gold in purchasing power by better than 2-1. Be careful what you wish for however. Exploding metals, especially silver will create huge margin calls for the shorts, this will coincide with customers demanding delivery. At some point, a failure to deliver will occur. Does it happen in the immediate future? I do not know, I do know that the current global geopolitical scene is a disaster …with a backdrop of insolvent and bankrupt central banks and treasuries. Be shocked at nothing, anything can happen at any time to pull this curtain down. The financial situation is pure math, we know it, and they know it. They will kick this table over because the collapse must be to their timing, stay alert and skeptical!
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.22% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 39.64 PTS OR 0.23% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 975.49 OR 2.49%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.28%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) closed DOWN TO 7,2468 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2575/ Oil UP TO 78.42 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 81.35 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2465
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2515
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.22 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 39.64 PTS OR 0.23%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 975.49 PTS OR 2.49%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 104.15 EURO FALLS TO 1.0792 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1,035 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.56…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE END OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.294/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.673 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.122%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.316
3j Gold at $2442.50//Silver at: 28.94 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 15/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.85
3m oil into the 78 dollar handle for WTI and 81 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.56/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.035 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8776as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9471 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.055 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.324 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.286 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.12…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.97 DOWN 2 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.194 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Gain As Meta Earnings Restore Faith In AI Bubble
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 08:07 AM
Futures extend on yesterday’s post FOMC gains, but are off session highs, with tech outperforming and the Russell in the red, following the same trend seen late day yesterday. Futures have given up some of their earlier gains potentially on geopolitical headlines as fears of another imminent Iran-Israel conflict swirl, pushing oil to new highs. As of 8:00 am S&P futures are up 0.4% after the index recorded its biggest gain since February in the previous session; Nasdaq futures 0.5% higher led by META 7% higher following earnings with AAPL +60bps, AMZN +1.1% ahead of earnings after the close today. Semis are up small with NVDA +20bps. European stocks are mixed while in Asia, Japanese markets plunge as the yen surges following the inexplicably hawkish BOJ announcement even as Japan’s economy is once again sinking, setting up the endgame of that particular monetary experiment. Bond yields are higher by 2-3bps which is boosting the USD to its best day in 2 weeks. Commodities are bid with Energy and base metals leading. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Mfg, while the market is likely to ignore jobs data ahead of tomorrow’s NFP. AMZN/AAPL headline today’s earnings schedule.
In premarket trading, META rose more than 6% and contributed to the buoyant mood, extending the life cycle of the AI bubble after it projected to spend more on capex for the full year even though its actual capex spending for Q2 came below estimates. Expect the company’s bullshit to hit a brick wall soon enough. Moderna shares sink 12% in premarket trading after the vaccine maker cut its revenue forecast for the full year. The company also said it expects lower sales of its Covid shot in Europe. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Carvana shares soared as much as 14% in premarket trading on Thursday as the online used-car dealer reported revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate. Analysts are positive about the company’s strong unit sales growth.
Alphatec Holdings shares slide 19% in premarket trading after the medical devices maker reported a larger loss per share in the second quarter than Wall Street had expected. Analysts also highlighted higher cash-burn expectations.
Aurora Innovation is trading lower by 10% premarket Thursday after the developer of autonomous-driving technology offered up to $350 million in class A shares via Goldman Sachs, Allen, Morgan Stanley late Wednesday.
Hershey shares slide 7.3% after the chocolate bar maker reported adjusted earnings per share and sales for the second quarter that missed estimates. Organic sales in constant currency plunged 17%, while organic volume/mix declined 18%. Management also tweaked annual forecasts lower.
Qualcomm shares fell as much as 1.6% in premarket trading on Thursday after analysts note some weakness in the chipmaker’s forecast. The reiteration of the company’s full year outlook is also seen as a potential disappointment.
Jobless claims data due later on Thursday and July’s unemployment print will provide further clues on the state of the US labor market. The Fed signaled on Wednesday that officials are on course to ease monetary policy next month unless inflation progress stalls.
“We’ll see tomorrow with payrolls if the Fed is right, but if it is, then the upward trend on equity markets is likely to continue,”said Amelie Derambure, a multi-asset portfolio manager at Amundi in Paris.
Earlier, the Bank of England lowered rates by 25 basis points to 5.0% in a narrow, 5-4 vote, as expected, while signaling further cautious reductions ahead. The pound extended declines to 0.8% while yields on 10-year gilts lowered six basis points. Investors will be watching earnings from Amazon.com Inc. after the close for further clues about returns from investments in AI. A report from Apple will give indicators of how the iPhone 16 is expected to perform in September.
For equities, the bullish mood in the US didn’t extend to Europe, where the regional benchmark dropped on a series of disappointing results from automakers and Societe Generale SA. The Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.2% after BMW’s earnings slowed and German rival Volkswagen AG’s margins declined, with both automakers suffering from weak demand in China. A poor performance in SocGen’s retail unit sent the stock plummeting 7.7%, dragging down European peers such as HSBC Holdings Plc and UniCredit SpA. The disappointing results serve as further evidence of building pressure for European companies on the back of softer demand and a macro backdrop that remains beset by challenges. The European benchmark has been trading sideways for the past two months after rallying in the year through May. Here are all the notable European movers Thursday:
Rolls-Royce shares jump as much as 11% to hit a new record high after the aerospace and defence supplier beat expectations in the first half and raised its outlook for the full year
Shell shares rise as much 2% after its profit and cash flow beat expectations in the second quarter, underpinning another resilient quarter for the oil company, according to RBC Capital Markets
London Stock Exchange Group rises as much as 3.6% to the highest since March 2021, after reporting total income for the first half that matched consensus estimates
Next shares jump 8.7%, reaching the highest intraday level on record, after the clothing retailer boosted its pretax profit guidance for the year
AB InBev rises as much as 3.6% after its results, which saw a beat on organic Ebitda growth even as beer volumes missed expectations
Smith & Nephew shares rise as much as 11%, the steepest since November 2020, after the British provider of medical devices reported half-year figures
Haleon shares rise as much as 3.1% to a record high after the consumer health company reported sales volume growth in the second quarter which some analysts found reassuring
Societe Generale shares drop as much as 7.7% after a disappointing performance at the French bank’s domestic retail unit overshadowed a surge in trading revenues
Worldline shares drop as much as 18%, to the lowest intraday level on record, after the French payment processor cut its guidance for revenue growth and profit, citing weaker consumption trends in Europe
Syensqo shares drop as much as 7.9%, hitting the lowest level since the company was spun off from Solvay in December, after the chemicals maker narrowed its full-year earnings guidance downward
Schroders falls as much as 8.6%, most in four years, after the UK asset manager reported adjusted profit or the first half-year that missed estimates, with analysts noting lower revenues that were partly offset by better costs
Melrose Industries shares fall as much as 6.7% as supply-chain disruption weighed on the aerospace firm’s outlook for 2025, though the company did reiterate guidance for 2024
“People are a bit more concerned that we will see a sharper slowdown than what’s currently priced in,” said Richard Flax, chief investment officer at digital wealth manager Moneyfarm. “We’ve seen downgrades to next quarter’s earnings. There’s also been some notable commentary from macro bellwethers about consumer spending. And that does give you pause.”
Earlier, Asian stocks declined, weighed down by a rout in Japanese shares as the yen soared after the BOJ raised interest rates on Wednesday. Chinese equities also pulled back after strong gains in the previous session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8%. Japanese stocks including Toyota Motor were among the biggest drags, offsetting gains in tech shares including TSMC that tracked advances in US peers. Benchmarks rose in Taiwan, South Korea and Australia.
Japan’s Topix plunged more than 3%, falling the most since April 2020 in a broad selloff, as the yen’s sharp rally weighed on exporters and the central bank’s interest rate hike dragged down real estate shares. A measure of property stocks led losses in the index plunging 7.3% while automakers slumped 6.6%. Department stores, which had been benefiting from booming tourist spending on the back of a weaker yen, also fell. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average, which entered a technical correction last week, lost 2.5%. The moves came after the Bank of Japan’s tightening was followed by comments from Jerome Powell that the Federal Reserve could cut rates “as soon as” September.
In FX, the dollar rose 0.2% against a basket of currencies after recording its worst day since May on Wednesday. The yen erased earlier gains to trade little changed.
In rates, treasuries are slightly lower across the curve, while gilts outperform after Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5% in a 5-4 vote split. In a close call, policy members were expected to vote for a rate cut. Treasury yields are cheaper by 1.5bp to 2bp across the curve with belly leading losses on the day, giving back some outperformance seen Wednesday. Treasury 10-year yields trade around 4.05%, cheaper by 2bp on the day with gilts outperforming by 6bp in the sector, bunds by 4bp. Leading into the Bank of England rate decision, Treasuries were already slightly lower across the curve, giving back some of Wednesday’s late gains into month-end. For US session, focus will switch back to data with initial jobless claims and manufacturing gauges expected. Following Wednesday’s Fed meeting, OIS markets price in around 27bp of rate cuts into the September policy meeting and roughly 72bp of cuts by the end of the year.
In commodities, oil extended gains after Iran reportedly ordered a retaliatory strike on Israel for killing a Hamas leader on its soil.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes July job cuts (7:30am), 2Q preliminary nonfarm productivity and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), July S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and ISM manufacturing (10am). The next scheduled Fed speaker is Barkin on Friday (12pm)
Market snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 5,565.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 515.53
MXAP down 0.7% to 182.35
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 567.81
Nikkei down 2.5% to 38,126.33
Topix down 3.2% to 2,703.69
Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 17,304.96
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 2,932.39
Sensex little changed at 81,771.28
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,114.67
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,777.68
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.29%
Euro down 0.4% to $1.0785
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $81.41/bbl
Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,436.89
US Dollar Index up 0.26% to 104.37
Top Overnight News
WSJ’s Timiraos wrote the Fed cleared the path for a September rate cut and noted officials held rates steady but made an important pivot of highlighting a more balanced focus on employment and inflation goals.
The US could impose restrictions on China’s ability to access high-bandwidth memory chips (and the equipment needed to make those chips), potentially limiting Beijing’s ability to build AI infrastructure. BBG
The US said Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro lost the presidential election, while he doubled down and said opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González should be jailed for at least 30 years. BBG
BMW shares slump in European trading after the company reported a shortfall on auto margins due to weakness in China. Volkswagen shares also sliding lower after the company’s margins were hurt by restructuring charges while China deliveries witnessed softness (mgmt. said its cost cutting initiatives aren’t over and would persist beyond H2). WSJ
Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader, Ismail Haniyeh, according to three Iranian officials briefed on the order. NYT
Expectations tilted toward the first BOE cut since the start of the pandemic, a 25-bp reduction to 5%, but economists said it’s a close call after months of silence from Governor Andrew Bailey due to the UK election campaign. Officials will also release growth and inflation forecasts today. BBG
Bill Ackman pressed pause on the initial public offering of a new fund aimed at everyday investors after a lack of investor demand forced him to dramatically shrink his fundraising target. WSJ
Donald Trump now trails Kamala Harris in the presidential race, PredictIt showed. His odds briefly dropped to just under 50% — they reached 70% at one stage. BBG
McDonald’s $5 meal deal drove a “notable” bump in diner traffic and is helping to capture customers from rivals, according to a company memo to franchisees. BBG
META (+7% pre mkt) reported EPS upside at 5.16 (+73% and above the Street’s 4.72 forecast), w/the beat driven by higher sales (+22% to $39.07B vs. the Street $38.33B), cost controls (costs/expenses rose only 7% while op. margins spiked 900bp to 38%), and a low tax rate (11% vs. the Street’s ~15% forecast). Capex ran below the Street at “only” $8.1B (this is more than $1B below the consensus forecast of $9.4B) but despite this, they take up the full-year capex guide slightly (now $37-40B vs. the prior $35-40B) and talk about “significant” capex growth in ‘25. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested the latest key developments including strong tech earnings, Fed Chair Powell’s dovish press conference and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data. ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors amid a softer yield environment. Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level alongside a firmer currency after the recent BoJ rate hike and as participants also digested earnings releases, while Toyota shares were heavily pressured after Japan’s Transport Ministry announced that misconduct was discovered in an additional 7 Toyota models. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued after disappointing Caixin Manufacturing PMI which unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 9 months.
Top Asian News
HKMA maintained its base rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.
China NDRC vice head said there is ‘sufficient’ room for counter-cyclical policy adjustments and that China has the conditions, ability, and confidence to achieve its full-year growth target. Furthermore, China will actively expand domestic demand and put consumption boost in a more striking position, as well as promote effective investment.
European bourses are lower across the board, Stoxx 600 -0.3%, despite the initial modest optimism of futures overnight. Earnings dominate the breakdown this morning. Sectors are mixed, no overarching theme with earnings dictating; Retail outperforms on Next earnings, followed closely by Real Estate on the back of Vonovia. While Autos lag after BMW, Daimler Truck and Volkswagen with Banks pressured by BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and ING all post-earnings. DAX 40 lags given the pressure in auto names, CAC 40 hit on SocGen and Credit Ag. While the FTSE 100 is the relative best performer given GBP weakness ahead of the BoE and also as the likes of Rolls-Royce and Shell lift post-earnings. Stateside, futures are mixed post-FOMC and into an after-market session with numerous heavyweights due incl. AAPL, AMZN & INTC; ES +0.2%, NQ +0.3%. Post-earnings, Meta +6.3% while QCOM now resides in the red.
Top European News
German engineering orders -9% Y/Y in June (Domestic -8%; Orders -10%); Apr-Jun -10% Y/Y (Domestic -20%, Foreign Orders -5%), according to VDMA.
FX
USD is managing to claw back most of yesterday’s FOMC-related selling with DXY up to a 104.37 peak vs. yesterday’s 104.53 high.
USD strength which comes from deteriorating European sentiment, EUR/USD at lows of 1.0779 and Cable below 1.28 to a 1.2764 base into the BoE.
JPY is one of the best performers across the majors as the combination of a BoJ hike yesterday and Powell paving the way for a September cut acts as a drag on USD/JPY; down to a 148.52 base but since back above 149.00.
AUD pressured on USD strength and soft Chinese Caixin PMIs, Kiwi also pressured but to a lesser extent.
Fixed Income
A bullish start for fixed income as the FOMC undertones continue to reverberate through.
Bunds holding around 134.00 in a 133.85-134.17 band; unreactive to unusually hefty revisions to Final PMIs and a sizeable outlook cut by HCOB on the German economy for the year as a whole.
Similarly, supply from Spain and France passed with no real reaction.
Gilts outperform into the BoE, though before this the Manufacturing PMI was revised higher and accompanied by hawkish pricing commentary but not sufficient to knock Gilts which remain at the top-end of 99.49-79 parameters and as such the UK 10yr yield still resides sub-4.0%.
USTs firmer, and towards the top-end of 112-02+ to 112-10+ parameters, a peak which matches Wednesday’s post-Powell high.
France sells EUR 10.497bln vs exp. EUR 9-10.5bln 3.00% 2034, 1.25% 2038, 2.50% 2043, and 4.00% 2055 OAT Auction
Commodities
Crude benchmarks continue to climb with geopolitical risk premium keeping the complex afloat heading into the OPEC+ JMMC.
WTI Sep trades towards the top of a current USD 78.31-78.88/bbl range with Brent Oct around the upper end of a USD 81.13-81.80/bbl parameter.
Precious metals pressured amid the recent USD strength, XAU at the lower-end of a USD 2,433.29-2,458.47/oz range vs Wednesday’s USD 2,403.94-2,451.01/oz. While base peers have also come off best, with 3M LME Copper at the lower-end of parameters given the USD strength and mentioned surprise contraction in the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
OPEC+ is likely to maintain output policy at the meeting, via Reuters citing sources; meeting has been pushed back to 12:00BST/07:00ET.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israel sent messages through diplomatic channels to Lebanon and Iran in which it stated that Israel is ready to go to the point of all-out war if Hezbollah and Iran respond in a way that will severely damage Israel, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Faytuks News on X.
US Deputy Representative to the Security Council said a wider war is neither imminent nor inevitable, according to Al Jazeera.
Hamas said it targeted a gathering of Israeli soldiers at the Salem military checkpoint west of Jenin with machine guns and achieved direct hits, according to Sky News Arabia.
Israeli military confirmed death of Hamas military leader Deif in a July strike in Gaza, via a statement.
Geopolitics: Other
Chinese Foreign Ministry said China and India are to speed up the negotiation process for the border situation and continue to maintain peace and tranquillity in border areas.
Chinese military said a Canadian frigate sailed through the Taiwan Strait, while it added that Canada’s actions have disrupted and undermined peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
US Event Calendar
07:30: July Challenger Job Cuts YoY 9.2%, prior 19.8%
08:30: July Initial Jobless Claims, est. 236,000, prior 235,000
July Continuing Claims, est. 1.86m, prior 1.85m
08:30: 2Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 1.8%, prior 0.2%
Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.7%, prior 4.0%
09:45: July S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.6, prior 49.5
10:00: June Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.1%
10:00: July ISM Manufacturing, est. 48.8, prior 48.5
2B EUROPEAN REPORT
Europe Market Open: Asian stocks are mixed as markets reflect on recent developments including a dovish Powell and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 02:27 AM
FOMC kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, while it stated that inflation remains ‘somewhat elevated’ and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
Fed Chair Powell said if the Fed sees inflation move down with expectations, growth remains reasonably strong and the labour market remains as it is, a rate cut would be on the table in September.
US stocks saw a rally in tech and some mild two-way action following the FOMC announcement but were ultimately underpinned during Fed Chair Powell’s dovish press conference.
APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested the latest key developments including strong tech earnings, Fed Chair Powell’s dovish press conference and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data.
European equity futures indicate a mildly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.7% on Wednesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US PMIs, US IJC, ISM Manufacturing, BoE & CNB Policy Announcements, OPEC+ JMMC, Comments from BoE’s Bailey & Pill, Supply from Spain & France.
Earnings from ING, Hugo Boss, BMW, Volkswagen, Credit Agricole, Société Generale, Rolls Royce, Shell, Barclays, Amazon, Apple, Coinbase, Intel, Snap, and many more.
US stocks gained with a significant rally in tech leading the advances amid a myriad of positive semi-conductor news including AMD’s solid report, US exemptions for ASML and Tokyo Electron in its new sanctions on exports to Chinese chipmakers, and Nvidia’s inclusion to Morgan Stanley’s top pick list. Stocks then saw some mild two-way action following the FOMC announcement but were ultimately underpinned during Fed Chair Powell’s dovish press conference.
SPX +1.6% at 5,522, NDX +3.0% at 19,362, DJIA +0.2% at 40, 843, RUT +0.5% at 2,254
FOMC kept rates unchanged at 5.25-5.50%, as expected, while it stated that inflation remains ‘somewhat elevated’ and the committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. FOMC repeated it does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% but noted that in recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2% inflation objective (prev. ‘modest’ progress) and said risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance.
Fed Chair Powell said in the post-meeting statement that inflation has eased but remains above the goal and Q2 data has added confidence on inflation. Powell added the Fed is maintaining its restrictive stance and policy is well positioned to deal with dual mandate risks.
Fed Chair Powell said during the Q&A that the Committee has made no decisions about future meetings and the broad sense is the Fed is moving closer, while he added that if the Fed sees inflation move down with expectations, growth remains reasonably strong and the labour market remains as it is, a rate cut would be on the table in September. Powell said the policy path ahead will depend on the economy and he can imagine a scenario of zero cuts this year, to several, depending on how the economy evolves, as well as noted that they have made real progress on inflation and there is growing confidence on the path to 2% inflation. Furthermore, Powell said it’s coming to be the time to adjust rates to support our continued progress and the Fed does not need to be 100% focused on inflation, while he added the job is not done on inflation but they can afford to begin to dial back restriction in the policy rate. Powell also said that some people examined the case for cuts at this meeting, although overwhelmingly, the sense was not at this meeting, but at the next if the data supports it.
FOMC MARKET REACTION
Indices saw slight two-way action after the FOMC rate decision, but later extended on notable gains through Powell’s dovish presser where he noted there was a real discussion about the case for reducing rates at this meeting; a strong majority supported not moving at this meeting, and September is the base case, albeit data dependant. T-Notes saw gains on Wednesday in choppy trade, extending on its bid during Powell’s dovish presser. Although the curve saw initial weakness after the FOMC held rates, as expected.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
WSJ’s Timiraos wrote the Fed cleared the path for a September rate cut and noted officials held rates steady but made an important pivot of highlighting a more balanced focus on employment and inflation goals.
APAC stocks traded mixed as participants digested the latest key developments including strong tech earnings, Fed Chair Powell’s dovish press conference and disappointing Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data.
ASX 200 was led higher by strength in the rate-sensitive sectors amid a softer yield environment.
Nikkei 225 suffered heavy losses and briefly dipped beneath the 38,000 level alongside a firmer currency after the recent BoJ rate hike and as participants also digested earnings releases, while Toyota shares were heavily pressured after Japan’s Transport Ministry announced that misconduct was discovered in an additional 7 Toyota models.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued after disappointing Caixin Manufacturing PMI which unexpectedly slipped into contraction territory for the first time in 9 months.
US equity futures were kept afloat post-FOMC and following mostly better-than-expected earnings after-hours.
European equity futures indicate a mildly higher open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.2% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.7% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY briefly breached the 104.00 level to the downside following the FOMC and press conference where Powell provided a dovish tone and suggested September is the base case for a rate cut if the data supports it.
EUR/USD eked marginal gains in a gradual continuation of a rebound from support at the 1.0800 level post-FOMC.
GBP/USD traded little changed after the choppy performance so far this week and with the BoE policy decision due later.
USD/JPY continued its slide to briefly below the 149.00 level following the recent BoJ rate hike and a hawkish Ueda.
Antipodeans were rangebound amid the mixed risk appetite and disappointing Chinese Caixin PMI data.
Brazil Central Bank maintained its Selic rate at 10.50%, as expected, with the decision made unanimously. Committee judged that the domestic and international environments require even greater caution on the conduct of monetary policy and stated that risks to its inflation scenarios remain in both directions.
Chile Central Bank maintained its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% (exp. 25bps cut), while it stated the decision was unanimous and is in line with monetary policy strategy.
FIXED INCOME
10-year UST futures rallied in the aftermath of the FOMC and post-meeting press conference where Fed Chair Powell signalled the potential for a September rate cut but noted that it would depend on the data.
Bund futures advanced in tandem with US counterparts and climbed above the 134.00 level.
10-year JGB futures rebounded off post-BoJ lows with flattening seen as Japan’s 2-year yield rose to the highest since December 2008 owing to the BoJ’s short-term benchmark interest rate increase.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures remained underpinned after rallying yesterday amid heightened geopolitical tensions and bullish inventories, while the attention for the energy complex turns to the OPEC+ JMMC meeting today.
Spot gold slightly pulled back after climbing alongside a weaker dollar following Powell’s dovish presser.
Copper futures held on to the prior day’s gains which were spurred by the constructive risk tone although further upside was capped amid the mixed Asia sentiment and after Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction territory.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was pressured and gradually retreated to beneath the USD 64,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
HKMA maintained its base rate unchanged at 5.75%, as expected.
China NDRC vice head said there is ‘sufficient’ room for counter-cyclical policy adjustments and that China has the conditions, ability, and confidence to achieve its full-year growth target. Furthermore, China will actively expand domestic demand and put consumption boost in a more striking position, as well as promote effective investment.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul) 49.8 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.8)
Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Jun) 5.59B vs Exp. 5.00B (Prev. 5.77B)
Australian Exports MM (Jun) 1.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
Australian Imports MM (Jun) 0.5% (Prev. 3.9%)
Australian Export Prices (Q2) -5.9% (Prev. -2.1%)
Australian Import Prices (Q2) 1.0% (Prev. -1.8%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, according to the New York Times citing three Iranian officials.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel delivered ‘crushing blows’ to Iranian proxies and will exact a heavy price for any aggression towards it from anywhere.
Israel sent messages through diplomatic channels to Lebanon and Iran in which it stated that Israel is ready to go to the point of all-out war if Hezbollah and Iran respond in a way that will severely damage Israel, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Faytuks News on X.
US Deputy Representative to the Security Council said a wider war is neither imminent nor inevitable, according to Al Jazeera.
Hamas said it targeted a gathering of Israeli soldiers at the Salem military checkpoint west of Jenin with machine guns and achieved direct hits, according to Sky News Arabia.
Hezbollah military commander Shukr’s body was found in the rubble in Beirut’s southern suburbs, according to Reuters citing two security sources.
There were unconfirmed reports that senior IRGC member Hajj Habib Zadeh had been assassinated in Damascus, Syria.
OTHER
Chinese Foreign Ministry said China and India are to speed up the negotiation process for the border situation and continue to maintain peace and tranquillity in border areas.
Chinese military said a Canadian frigate sailed through the Taiwan Strait, while it added that Canada’s actions have disrupted and undermined peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
2C) ASIAN REPORT
2D JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND
here comes the cuts in interest rates. Now it is England’s turn!
Bank of England Cuts Rate to 5.0% In “Finely Balanced” 5-4 Vote, Offers No Signals On Next Moves
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 07:24 AM
The global easing train is now well and truly on its way. While the Fed got close to cutting rates yesterday, but instead punted to September, moments ago it was the Bank of England that joined the SNB and ECB and became the latest western central bank to begin an easing cycle when it cut interest rates by 0.25%, taking them down to 5.00%, its first rate cut since the global covid crash (the market was pricing 60% odd of a rate cut ahead of the decision so not exactly a big surprise).
The cut – which was an extremely close decision, with the Monetary Policy Committee voting 5-4 to cut rates (vs 2-7 in the last meeting) with Bailey, Breeden, Lombardelli, Ramsden and Dhingra voting to cut and Pill, Greene, Mann, and Haskel voting for unchanged – brings to an end the joint-longest peak in rates since BoE was granted independence.
The minutes of the meeting noted that for some of the MPC members voting for a cut the decision was finely balanced with risks to the inflation outlook remaining skewed to the upside. Importantly, the minutes did not provide any indications about the future rate cuts stating that “[t]he Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”.
Governor Andrew Bailey, who cast the tie-breaking vote for a quarter-point cut – said that the decision was “finely balanced” for some of those supporting the move, and warned that the MPC must be careful not to cut rates too quickly, or by too much.
Furthermore, the MPC said that “monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further” (in June, it said “restrictive for sufficiently long to return inflation to the 2% target sustainably”.)
From those who voted to cut, the decision was finely balanced: inflationary persistence had not yet conclusively dissipated, and there remained some upside risks to the outlook. Additionally, “there had been some progress in moderating risks of persistence in inflation,” the minutes said. Business surveys pointed to “waning wage and price pressures.” For some of those officials, the decision was “finely balanced” as inflationary persistence “had not yet conclusively dissipated.”
For those who voted to hold rates, members thought that there was a greater risk of more enduring structural shifts, such as a rise in the medium- term equilibrium rate of employment, a fall in potential growth and a rise in the long-run neutral interest rate, contributing to domestic inflationary persistence. They preferred to maintain the current level of Bank Rate until there was stronger evidence that these upside pressures would not materialize.
Alongside Bailey, Clare Lombardelli, the new deputy governor for monetary policy, backed the reduction in what was her first meeting. They were joined by deputy governors Sarah Breeden and Dave Ramsden as well as external member Swati Dhingra.
Chief Economist Huw Pill and external policymakers Jonathan Haskel, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann preferred to hold. It was Haskel’s last vote. In June, only two members supported a cut.
On Inflation, the BoE said risks that inflation pressures from second round effects endure into the medium-term
Economic projections:
Inflation:
2024 forecast at 2.75% (prev. 2.5%),
2025 at 2.25% (prev. 2.25%),
2026 at 1.5% (prev. 1.5%)
Growth:
2024 forecast at 1 25% (prev. 0.5%),
2025 at 1.0% (prev. 1.0%),
2026 at 1.25% (prev. 1.25%)
Separately, as the Bank of England prepares for its annual adjustment in September of the QT program to reduce its holdings of bonds, UBS notes that Thursday’s MPC report includes the latest analysis of the impact of QT. The BoE said that QT has had a small impact on gilt yields and the QT operations have had little impact on market functioning, which suggests they could increase active sales in the next 120-month period. It says that between February 2022 and June 2024, UK 10y bond yields rose 275bp while UK term premia rose 75bp; but QT is likely to account for just 10bp (though perhaps as much as 20bp) of the total rise in the term premium. It added that measures of gilt market liquidity have, if anything, improved since the start of QT, with some signs that sales may in fact have had a positive effect by alleviating collateral scarcity at shorter maturities.
As Bloomberg notes, the reduction will come as welcome relief for mortgage borrowers and business after 12 months with rates stuck at a 16-year high, and offers the new government an initial boon. Prime Minister Keir Starmer and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have been in office less than a month and have promised to boost growth to fix the UK’s ailing public services. Lower rates will help growth and bring down debt-servicing costs, giving the government more money for its spending priorities.
The BOE was briefed on the chancellor’s policy changes on Monday, when public-sector workers were awarded a £10 billion pay rise, but officials did not include them in the August projections. The effects on the fiscal stance will be in the November forecast following the full budget on Oct. 30.
Looking ahead, there was no specific guidance on where interest rates may settle, nor of the speed of cuts needed to get there. The minutes indicated that the BOE may lower borrowing costs only slowly, and financial market bets before the announcement pointed to only one further reduction this year.
“Inflationary pressures have eased enough that we’ve been able to cut interest rates today,” Bailey said in a statement. “But we need to make sure inflation stays low, and be careful not to cut interest rates too quickly or too much.”
The decision, according to Bloomberg, is an early gift to the new Labour government and aligns the BOE with a slow-to-start bandwagon of easing across advanced economies. That shift will possibly soon be joined by the US Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell signaled on Wednesday that officials are on course to cut rates in September unless inflation progress stalls.
Similar to its peers, the UK central bank displayed a cautious approach toward future changes in borrowing costs, with the minutes adding that officials will “decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.”
Even so, the bank’s forecasts point to a steeper path of rate cuts over the next three years than markets currently expect.
On market assumptions that rates fall to 4.1% in 2025 and 3.5% in three years’ time, inflation is at 1.7% after two years and 1.5% after three – well below the 2% target.
UK consumer-price growth is back at that level, but underlying pressures remain uncomfortably high. The BOE said headline inflation will bounce back to 2.7% by the end of the year, and that what happens after that depends on how wages and services prices evolve. Inflation risks will remain “skewed to the upside throughout the forecast period,” the BOE said in its documents. “Monetary policy would need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning to the 2% target in the medium term had dissipated further.”
The committee decided to cut despite stickier underlying inflation than hoped and stronger growth than anticipated – both elements cited by the minority that opposed the move in a vote that was the MPC’s tightest since September 2023.
Services inflation was 5.7% in June, well above the BOE’s forecast for 5.1%, and wage growth has dropped only slowly. The economy is also rebounding from recession more strongly than expected. The BOE upgraded growth for this year to 1.25% from 0.5%, but left projections for 2025 and 2026 unchanged at 1% and 1.25%.
With the market generally expecting a rate cut, there was little reaction to the news, with both cable (which had fallen sharply ahead of the announcement) and rates barely reacting to the news, dropping from 1.2780 to 1.2754 before the BOE only to pick up slightly after to 1.2770, while Gilts lifted from 99.73 to 99.99 before paring to 99.59 15 minutes after.
GERMANY
Wow this is a huge number: 1 in 20 of all Syrians now show that half of them are receiving welfare.
(remix)
Nearly 1-In-20 Of All Syrians Now Lives In Germany, Over Half Receive Welfare
Ever since the 2015/16 migrant crisis, Syrians have arrived in Germany in ever-increasing numbers, and now number at least 972,000 at the end of 2023, according to Statista. There are 22 million Syrians living in Syria itself, meaning those in Germany represent nearly 1 for every 20 in their native country.
This is extremely rapid growth since 2014 when there were only 60,000 Syrians in Germany. Since then, the population has grown 16-fold.
However, despite promises that Syrians would integrate into the German economy, the numbers still tell a very different story, with 513,534 Syrians receiving the German welfare benefit known as citizen’s money (Burgergeld), according to the current data from the Federal Employment Agency. However, even those who are not receiving this payment receive money, housing, and other benefits from the Asylum Seekers’ Benefits Act.
This is a major factor in Germany’s record-high debt levels, with the government spending nearly €50 billion on migrants in 2023, making up a sizeable portion of Germany’s overall budget.
According to Statista, the number of Afghans has also grown tremendously, increasing to 419,410 in 2023, representing a sixfold increase from 2014. Nearly half of them, 197,551, receive social welfare payments, and the vast majority live on asylum seeker benefits. However, Afghanistan’s population is much larger than Syria, totaling 41 million, which means the share of Afghans living in Germany is much smaller relatively speaking.
Afghans continue to arrive in Germany at a high rate, with 10,000 supposed to be flown in, according to an announcement from Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.
As Remix News has previously noted, Afghans have one of the highest rates of criminality in the country. According to some criminal statistics, Afghans are five times more likely to commit a criminal act than native Germans. However, in some categories, such as sexual assaults, they are 12.5 times more likely to commit an offense than the rest of society. However, this is only a fraction of the problem that Germany has been forced to endure with regard to migrant crimes, many of which are committed by repeat offenders. Around one-third of migrants who were suspected of committing a crime had previous convictions. As many as 700 of them had 21 or more previous convictions.
Many of the crimes are serious, including gang rape, rape, assault, and murder. In many cases, the difference in cultures is striking. For example, in 2022, a 29-year-old Afghan attacked a 58-year-old gardener in a park in the western part of Berlin. He talked to her for a moment, then suddenly pulled out a knife and stabbed her in the neck several times. He allegedly told police he didn’t like that she was working. A retired passerby rushed to help her, ending up with serious injuries as well.
Many of the Syrians who arrived in the country, along with Afghans who have been in the country longer, are set to receive citizenship. A new citizenship law is coming into force on Thursday this week, which will allow foreigners who have been in the country for five years to receive naturalization, and some can even receive it after three years.
Notably, despite a brutal civil war and the exodus of millions of Syrians from their home country, the overall population is actually back on the rise due to births and some Syrians even remigrating. Many Syrians remain internally displaced within the country, while millions of more in Turkey, Europe, and other countries.
END
POLAND/HUNGARY
Hungary and Orban have it right. Poland is nuts..
(zerohedge)
The Polish-Hungarian Dispute Is Getting Nastier After Sikorski Lied About Szijjarto
Polish-Hungarian relations are in crisis over their polar opposite approaches towards Ukraine, which already just ruined their 700-year-old brotherhood at the state-to-state level and continues getting worse. Tensions had been building since the start of Russia’s special operation, but they finally exploded after Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban criticized Poland on Saturday for hypocritically attacking his country over its Russian oil imports and radically reshaping the European balance of power.
This was followed by Polish Deputy Foreign Minister Teofil Bartoszewski suggesting on Sunday that Hungary should withdraw from the EU and NATO in order to form “a union with Putin”. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto responded to that by doubling down on Orban’s claims that Poland is hypocritical and provocative while also conveying to Warsaw that Budapest’s patience is wearing thin. Readers can learn more about their dispute from this analysis here that was published on Monday.
It turns out that the Warsaw-based Visegrad Insight published an interview with Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski later that same day in which this top diplomat continued his deputy’s attacks against Hungary. He practically mocked Orban for not having any support for his peace mission and then scandalously claimed that Szijjarto initially supported his proposal to hold the next EU Foreign Affairs Council in Ukraine as a compromise between Budapest and Brussels before eventually vetoing it.
Sikorski’s other attacks against Hungary inclined throwing shade on its East-West balancing act and implying that newfound cooperation with the Chinese police imperils national sovereignty. Szijjarto was once again pressed to respond to these Polish provocations, which he did in two Facebook posts here and here. He accused Sikorski of lying, clarified that Orban’s peace mission was a national initiative unrepresentative of the EU, and expressed hope that Poland will one day return to Central Europe.
The last part showed that he’s nobly taking the high road by refusing to stoop to Sikorski’s level with lies and smears, which would have amounted to dirtying himself by wrestling with a pig while his Polish counterpart squeals with delight. Poland wants to provoke Hungary into behaving undiplomatically since that could then be spun to discredit the conservative-nationalist opposition that looks to it for guidance on non-Ukrainian-related issues like illegal immigration and still treasures their brotherhood.
Apart from not wanting to deal a deathblow to this relationship at the people-to-people level among those in Poland who still appreciate it, Hungary also doesn’t want to discredit itself in the eyes of its non-Western partners like Russia and China by acting like a typical European country does nowadays. Those two and others respect that Hungary conducts itself differently than its peers, which is why they’d be hugely disappointed if it was successfully provoked by Poland into behaving just like the rest of them.
Hungarian diplomacy is sophisticated enough to never sully the state like that, which is why it’s expected that its representatives will continue taking the high road no matter what Poland says or does, even if Sikorski and others get a lot nastier. This’ll likely take the form of them continuing to explain how far astray Poland has gotten from its post-Old Cold War mission of turning their Visegrad Group with Czechia and Slovakia into a third center of influence in Europe alongside the Franco-German axis and Russia.
Hungary wants to remind Poland that the greater geopolitical good is served by returning to this mission instead of continuing to contribute to continental instability by serving as the Anglo-American Axis’ wedge between the aforementioned traditional power centers. Polish policy won’t change as a result, but Polish patriots will know that Hungary has Poland’s best interests in mind no matter what the ruling liberal-globalist coalition claims, thus keeping their brotherhood alive at the people-to-people level.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
/ISRAEL/HAMAS
Iran’s leader orders a direct retaliation strike on Israel. They should be careful……Israel has nukes!
Iran’s Supreme Leader Orders ‘Direct’ Retaliation Strikes On Israel: Officials
WEDNESDAY, JUL 31, 2024 – 03:50 PM
Update(1550ET): Multiple Iranian officials have told the New York Times in a breaking story that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered retaliation against Israel for the brazen assassination by missile strike of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh which took place on Iranian soil in the early morning hours.
Officials referenced the “humiliating security failure” and that Iran must once against show “strength against the risk of escalation” in exacting revenge on Israel.
Khamenei has, according to the report, “issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader” – three Iranian sources who were briefed on the matter said.
Iran has raised the red flag of revenge over the dome of the Jamkaran Mosque following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran’s Supreme Leader has said, ‘It is our duty to take revenge.’ The United States government claims it was not aware of or involved in the killing. Chaos is expected in the Middle East.
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.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1818624666409291945
Russia is one among several nations urging calm and raising the alarm over a major regional conflagration:
Russia warned Wednesday that the assassination in Iran of visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyehthreatened a full “global conflict” — as the terror group called it “a grave escalation” and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” for Israel.
“We resolutely condemn the attack that led to Mr. Haniyeh’s death,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said soon after Haniyeh was killed in an airstrike while in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
“We believe that such action is aimed against attempts to establish peace in the region, and could significantly destabilize the already tense situation,” he said.
* * *
end
Iranian envoy: Our response to Haniyeh killing is act to self-defense
Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran was an “aggressive act of terrorism” and a “grave breach” of Iranian “sovereignty,” he said as he called on the UN Security Council to sanction Israel.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFAUGUST 1, 2024 03:14Updated: AUGUST 1, 2024 03:46
IRAN’S AMBASSADOR to the United Nations Amir Saeid Iravani addresses the General Assembly during a ceremonial tribute to Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi, after the president was killed in a helicopter crash, in May.(photo credit: EDUARDO MUNOZ / REUTERS)
“The Islamic Republic of Iran reserves its inherent right to self-defense in accordance with international law to respond decisively to these terrorist and criminal acts when it deems necessary and appropriate,” Iravani said.
He spoke after The New York Times reports that Iran planned a direct attack against Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for the targeted assassination of Haniyeh Wednesday morning but did take credit for killing Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr.
Haniyeh’s assassination in Tehran was an “aggressive act of terrorism” and a “grave breach” of Iranian “sovereignty,” he said as he called on the UN Security Council to sanction Israel.
THE UN Security Council meets, last month, prior to voting on a resolution demanding an immediate Gaza ceasefire for Ramadan leading to a permanent sustainable ceasefire and for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages. The resolution passed. (credit: Andrew Kelly/Reuters)
Condemning the killings
The meeting was called by two of the council’s 15 members, China and Algeria.
China’s Ambassador Fu Cong condemned Haniyeh’s killing.
“This act was a blatant attempt to sabotage peace efforts and wrongfully trampled on the fundamental UN Charter principle of respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states.
“China is deeply worried about an exacerbation of the upheaval in the region that this incident may trigger the Gaza conflict has been going on for nearly 300 days,” he said.
“The Middle East situation is hanging by a threat much to the concern of the international community,” the Chinese envoy stated.
A Russian envoy condemned the attack, noting that it was a serious attempt to derail talks to secure the release of the remaining 115 hostages, of which Haniyeh was a critical participant.
“Those who were behind this political assassination must have known how dangerous the consequences would have been for the entire region,” he said.
“These attempts to drag Iran into a regional confrontation destabilize an atmosphere in the region that is already at a boiling point,” he said, explaining that assassinations were “bringing the Middle East to the brink of a regional war.”
END
US Senator Graham calls for military force against Iran over Hezbollah threats. In other words, Israel and the USA can attack Iran if their surrogates attack Israel.
(Jerusalem Post)
Senator Lindsey Graham urges US military action against Iran if Hezbollah escalates tensions with Israel, aiming to prevent Iran’s nuclear breakout and hold them accountable for proxy actions.
By HANNAH SARISOHNJULY 31, 2024 22:42Updated: AUGUST 1, 2024 01:24
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) speaks at a Republican fundraising dinner in Columbia, South Carolina, U.S. August 5, 2023.(photo credit: REUTERS/SAM WOLFE)
Any escalation by Hezbollah against Israel that leads to a major confrontation should be viewed as an attack carried out and executed by Iran, according to a resolution South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham introduced on Wednesday.
According to the resolution, the Senate “asserts that efforts to deter Hezbollah and the Islamic Republic of Iran are most credible when the President keeps all options on the table, including military force.”
The resolution holds Iran and Hezbollah responsible for “any adverse impacts on the people of Lebanon that result from an attack on the State of Israel by Hezbollah” and also urges Congress and the President to use “all diplomatic tools and power projection capabilities” to hold both Iran and Hezbollah accountable.
Graham also introduced an Authorization for Use of Military Force which would authorize the use of US Armed Forces against Iran for threatening the national security of the US through the development of nuclear weapons.
The resolution would authorize the use of military force by the United States to stop an Iranian nuclear breakout.
U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) speaks to members of the press at Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump’s South Carolina Republican presidential primary election night party in Columbia, South Carolina, U.S. February 24, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/ALYSSA POINTER)
According to Graham, the resolution would be triggered if the president determines that Iran possesses uranium enriched to the weapons-grade level of a nuclear warhead and possesses a delivery vehicle capable of delivering a nuclear device against Israel, other allies, or the United States.
“Iran will keep going until somebody tells them to stop,” Graham told reporters during a news conference he called on Wednesday afternoon. “It is time to put red lines on their nuclear program.”
Graham said he believes “it is a certainty” that if the US doesn’t change course, Iran will possess a nuclear weapon within weeks or months.
Graham called the Director of National Intelligence’s report on the status of the Iranian nuclear program “unnerving.”
“Their ability to enrich to weapons grade is now a matter of weeks, not months,” Graham said. “Their ability to weaponize the material has advanced, and it is now time for Congress to lend their voice to the proper response.”
Not only should Israel hold Iran accountable for any escalation by Hezbollah, the United States should do the same, according to Graham, with vital facilities like oil refineries on the target list.
‘It is time to hit the Ayatollah in the pocketbook’
“If Hezbollah attacks Israel, my hope is that they will have one less refinery than they do today,” he said. “It is time to hit the Ayatollah in the pocketbook. Oil refineries are the lifeblood of his regime. Without those refineries, they would not be able to fund terrorism.”
“Israel is not the bad guy here,” Graham said, adding it’s time to hold Iran accountable for their proxies.
“Hezbollah was the agent of the attack, on October 7, the slaughtering of 1,200 Jews was done by the Iranians to Hamas,” Graham said. “So our friends in Israel, if you’re hit by Hezbollah, strike hard, strike lethal and include Iran on the target list.”
Iran cannot use its proxies in Lebanon without facing reprisals in Iran itself, Graham said.
According to Graham, he has the support of his Republican colleagues, and he hopes some Democrats as well.
“Why am I saying this? Because I think if we don’t do something decisive now, it’s going to get far worse, quick,” Graham said. “I believe that we’re on the verge of a major conflict over the Iran nuclear program.”
Israel will be forced to act in a decisive manner sooner rather than later, Graham added.
“It’s time to reset,” the senator said.
Graham, who met with American hostage families last week in DC ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s address before Congress, said the best way to get the hostages released is to make the cost of doing business too high for Iran.
The senator said he still thinks it’s possible to have a ceasefire and have the hostages released, and Israel’s actions in Iran on Tuesday are a “continuation of a policy that served the Jewish state well.”
end
ISRAEL///HEZBOLLAH//LEBANON/HAMAS/USA
US Will ‘Certainly’ Defend Israel If Attacked By Iran In Wake Of Haniyeh Killing
WEDNESDAY, JUL 31, 2024 – 05:45 PM
Update(1855ET): More dangerous escalation coming from the Pentagon, at least in terms of declared ‘commitments’… how many wars or proxy conflicts does Washington want to be in at once?
U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin: If Israel is attacked, we will certainly assist in defending it. pic.twitter.com/7sGpP69rDt
— Melissa Chapman-Mushnick מרים (@MelissaSChapman) July 31, 2024
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin stated Wednesday, just hours after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s death,“If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel.“
He issued the words aboard the USNS Millinocket during a visit to the Philippines. “You saw us do that in April; you can expect to see us do that again,” he said, in reference to the prior Iranian ballistic missile and drone attack in retaliation for the previous Israeli attack on Tehran’s embassy in Damascus.
* * *
Update(1550ET): Multiple Iranian officials have told the New York Times in a breaking story that Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ordered retaliation against Israel for the brazen assassination by missile strike of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh which took place on Iranian soil in the early morning hours.
Officials referenced the “humiliating security failure” and that Iran must once against show “strength against the risk of escalation” in exacting revenge on Israel.
Khamenei has, according to the report, “issued an order for Iran to strike Israel directly, in retaliation for the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s leader” – three Iranian sources who were briefed on the matter said.
Iran has raised the red flag of revenge over the dome of the Jamkaran Mosque following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Iran’s Supreme Leader has said, ‘It is our duty to take revenge.’ The United States government claims it was not aware of or involved in the killing. Chaos is expected in the Middle East.
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Iran has raised the red flag of revenge over the dome of the Jamkaran Mosque following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Iran's Supreme Leader has said, 'It is our duty to take revenge.'
Russia is one among several nations urging calm and raising the alarm over a major regional conflagration:
Russia warned Wednesday that the assassination in Iran of visiting Hamas leader Ismail Haniyehthreatened a full “global conflict” — as the terror group called it “a grave escalation” and Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei threatened “harsh punishment” for Israel.
“We resolutely condemn the attack that led to Mr. Haniyeh’s death,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said soon after Haniyeh was killed in an airstrike while in Tehran for the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
“We believe that such action is aimed against attempts to establish peace in the region, and could significantly destabilize the already tense situation,” he said.
* * *
Iran’s Foreign Ministry has issued a fiery statement saying that Washington must also bear responsibility for the Israeli attack which killed Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday.
“This terrorist act is not only a flagrant violation of the principles and rules of international law and the United Nations Charter, but also a serious threat to regional and international peace and security,” the Iranian Foreign Ministry statement began.
“The Islamic Republic of Iran emphasizes the responsibility of the US government as a supporter and accomplice of the Zionist regime in the continuation of the occupation and genocide of the Palestinians, in committing this heinous act of terrorism,” it added.
The vague language of general ‘support’ to Israel leaves open the question of whether Tehran believes the US had an actual direct operational role in Haniyeh’s killing.
However, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations issued a more specific denunciation in tandem: “This act could not have occurred without the authorization and intelligence support of the U.S.,” it said in a letter submitted to the UN. According to fresh details of the strike:
HAMAS SENIOR OFFICIAL AL-HAYYA SAYS A MISSILE HIT HAMAS LEADER ROOM AND ‘STRUCK HIM DIRECTLY‘
Hours before the accusation, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken definitively stated Washington had no involvement in the attack.
“This is something we were not aware of or involved in. It’s very hard to speculate,” Blinken told a regional outlet while on an official trip to Singapore. He had been asked about what he thinks will happen next in the region.
Iran will more than likely retaliate in a big way, possibly with another wave of drones and missiles on Israel, but this time less telegraphed (compared to the initial April 13 attack, largely intercepted by Israel’s anti-air defenses)…
This reference to Iran’s territorial integrity is the clearest sign yet that Iran is viewing its response in the same light as its response to Israel’s bombing of its consulate in Damascus in April. In other words, it’s going to be a big response. It has to be a big response.
Quote
Khamenei.ir
@khamenei_ir
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17h
Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.
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33.8K Views
This reference to Iran's territorial integrity is the clearest sign yet that Iran is viewing its response in the same light as its response to Israel's bombing of its consulate in Damascus in April.
In other words, it's going to be a big response. It has to be a big response. https://t.co/UIQX4LxSxR
The aforementioned UN letter has also called for the UN Security Council to hold an emergency meeting over the Hamas chief’s killing. But likely the US and its allies will see this as a legitimate killing of a designated terrorist responsible for the atrocities against Israel on Oct.7.
Meanwhile as Israel appears to be on an ‘assassination spree’, the body of Hezbollah’s military commander Fuad Shukr (and close advisor to Nasrallah) has been pulled from the rubble in Beirut.
Regional sources say the death toll from the Tuesday strike on a southern neighborhood of the Lebanese capital has risen to five with at least 70 injured. Among the casualties were women and children.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
Hezbollah Chief Vows ‘New Phase’ Of War During Slain Commander’s Funeral
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 03:45 PM
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a Thursday speech coming on the same day as the funeral of Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr – who was slain in an Israeli airstrike on south Beirut on Tuesday – warned that Israel has crossed all “red lines” and thus the war has entered a “new phase”.
“The enemy, and those who are behind the enemy, must await our inevitable response,” he said in a speech video link broadcast at Shukr’s funeral. Nasrallah starting years ago broadcasts his messages from secret, high-secure locations, given Israeli intelligence has long sought to track his whereabouts.
“You do not know what red lines you crossed,” the Hezbollah leader said in reference to the separate strikes in Beirut and Tehran, the latter which killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Wednesday.
Hezbollah had only in the last 24 hours belatedly confirmed Shukr’s death, considered Nasrallah’s “right-hand man” – after his body was pulled from under the rubble of a destroyed building in a south Beirut neighborhood on Wednesday.
Israel had boasted that it had “eliminated” the Shia paramilitary group’s “most senior military commander” – while initially Lebanese sources had denied it while seeking confirmation.
“We, on all the support fronts, have entered a new phase,” Nasrallah said, also in reference to Iran-linked ‘resistance’ groups across the Middle East.
It didn’t take long for Hezbollah to unleash its first big salvo of rockets in past 48 hours against Israel’s Galilee region:
#BREAKING Hezbollah launched a massive rocket launch on Israel.
Overall, the speech while stern still suggested that Hezbollah wishes to keep the war ‘limited’ and contained, which has been the case over the past ten months of war. Still he vowed that vengeance is coming:
Nasrallah said unnamed countries had asked his group to retaliate in an “acceptable” way – or not at all. But he said it would be “impossible” for the group not to respond.
“There is no discussion on this point. The only things lying between us and you are the days, the nights and the battlefield,” Nasrallah added in a threat to Israel.
He stressed that “The response will come, whether spread out or simultaneously.” He described that the “enemy” has “opened a problem with everyone” and they do not know where the response will come from.
Iran too, is mulling a direct response. Nasrallah alluded to this in the following at one point in the address: “Do they imagine that they will kill Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and that Iran will remain silent?“
Al Jazeera has described the following scenes in Iran’s capital on Thursday:
Thousands have poured into the streets of Tehran to join the funeral procession of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh as Iran weighs its options after promising to avenge his assassination.
The bodies of Haniyeh and his bodyguard, who was killed alongside him in a strike blamed on Israel, were marched amid chants in the capital. Flags of Palestine, Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Hamas were seen as organizers handed out posters of Haniyeh.
Banners honored the Palestinian leader and the late Iranian general Qassem Soleimani, who was assassinated by a United States strike in 2020, among others.
“Avenging the blood of the guest is with the host, the world is waiting,” read the headline of the ultraconservative Keyhan newspaper, whose editor-in-chief is appointed by Iran’s supreme leader.
Israeli leadership has in response warned of all-out war if Iran attacks Israel, and yesterday Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin said that the US military would help Israel defend itself if it came under attack by Tehran. Presumably this would involve anti-air intercept assistance and the scrambling of fighter jets.
Eight Other Times Israel Likely Behind Covert Assassinations In Iran
WEDNESDAY, JUL 31, 2024 – 08:25 PM
Mainstream media headlines both in US and European media often portray as an ‘aggressor’ and ‘terrorist state’ while simultaneously presenting Israel as purely the victim each instance there is escalation.
But arguably Iran has been somewhat restrained in responding militarily to Israel after having endured covert assassinations of some of its top scientists and military officials stretching back over a decade. This has been a war waged between the shadows: Iran supports several proxies throughout the Middle East, including Hamas and Hezbollah, while Israel has sent intelligence assets and hit squads to strike Iranian officials swiftly and suddenly.
There have also been a series of Israeli sabotage attack targeting Iranian nuclear sites and infrastructure over the past years. Below is a list of assassinations of prominent Iranians which have been linked to Israeli intelligence (and it is believed some covert operations may have been carried out with the help of US intelligence).
In January 2010, Masoud Alimohammadi, a professor specialising in particle physics at the University of Tehran, was killed by a remote-controlled bomb that had been attached to a motorcycle near his home.
He was a supporter of the Iranian opposition movement, which led some to accuse Tehran authorities of carrying out the assassination.
However, Tehran’s chief prosecutor blamed the CIA and Mossad, pointing out that Alimohammadi was a nuclear scientist, and the US and its allies were attempting to curb Iran’s nuclear programme.
The US State Department described the accusations as “absurd”.
Iranian authorities arrested several suspects in his killing, accusing them of working for the Israeli intelligence service.
Majid Shahriari
Ten months after the killing of Alimohammadi, another nuclear scientist, Majid Shahriari, was killed in similar circumstances.
Shahriari was reportedly a member of the nuclear engineering department of Shahid Beheshti University in Tehran.
A motorcyclist pulled up to Shahriari’s car and attached a bomb, killing him in the explosion. His wife and driver were wounded but survived.
Then-president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the attack was “undoubtedly the hand of the Zionist regime” and its western allies.
Shahriari was a colleague of Alimohammadi, Al Jazeera reported at the time.
Darioush Rezaeinejad
In July 2011, the next scientist to be assassinated in Iran was Darioush Rezaeinejad.
Two men riding motorcycles fatally shot Rezaeinejad and wounded his wife. An unconfirmed report in an Israeli intelligence publication said that Rezaeinejad had been working on a nuclear detonator.
Iranian authorities rejected the claims, stating he was merely an academic.
An Israeli intelligence source told German publication Der Spiegel that Mossad was behind the attack. Israeli officials did not comment.
Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam
Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam was among 17 members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) killed during a blast in Tehran in November 2011.
Moghaddam had been described as the “architect” of Iran’s missile programme, and was crucial in developing artillery and missile units. Ayatollah Ali Khamanei was among those to attend his funeral.
Iran officially described the event as an “accident” during the routine transfer of munitions.
A source with close links to Iranian authorities told The Guardian the operation had been carried out by Mossad. Time magazine also cited a western intelligence source as stating that Mossad was responsible.
Tehran dismissed such reports, with the armed forces chief of staff stating that “the recent incident and blast is not related to Israel or America”. Israel neither confirmed or denied its involvement.
Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan
In January 2012, Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan became the latest Iranian scientist to be killed.
A motorcyclist was once again used in the killing, riding up to Roshan’s car and attaching a magnetic bomb that killed the scientist and his driver.
Roshan was a professor at a technical university in Tehran and a department supervisor at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant.
Then-vice president Mohammad Reza Rahimi blamed the attack on Israeli agents.
Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah
The New York Times reported in November 2020 that deputy al-Qaeda leader Abdullah Ahmed Abdullah had been assassinated by Israeli agents in Tehran three months earlier.
Abdullah, also known as Abu Muhammad al-Masri, was allegedly killed by two Israeli operatives on motorcycles, at the request of the United States.
Miriam, the widow of Osama bin Laden’s son Hamza and Abdullah’s daughter, was also killed, according to US intelligence sources who spoke to the New York Times.
Abdullah had been indicted in the United States for the 1998 bombings of its embassies in Tanzania and Kenya.
Iran, Israel and the US did not publicly acknowledge the killing.
Mohsen Fakhrizadeh
Top Iranian nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was gunned down in Tehran in November 2020.
Fakhrizadeh was renowned as the architect of Iran’s military nuclear programme.
He became the face of Iran’s nuclear ambitions when named in the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 2015 “final assessment” of open questions about Iran’s nuclear programme and whether it was aimed at developing a nuclear bomb.
According to the New York Times, a Mossad team killed Fakhrizadeh with a computerised machine gun that required no on-site operatives.
The device weighed around a tonne and was smuggled into Iran in smaller parts and later reassembled.
Hassan Sayyad Khodaei
In May 2022, gunmen on motorcycles opened fire on a vehicle in Tehran, killing senior Republican Guard officer Hassan Sayyad Khodaei.
Khodaei was killed by five gunshots, according to Iranian state media.
He was a member of the Quds Force, which was responsible for the Republican Guard’s foreign operations. Khodaei reportedly served in Syria.
Tehran blamed Israel for the killing and vowed revenge.
Citing intelligence officials briefed on the matter, the New York Times reported that Israel had informed American officials that it was behind the killing.
end
IDF confirms Deif assassination, Haniyeh killed by explosive device
Mediators say Haniyeh killing harms deal, Israel wants hostage release • UN Security Council countries express alarm over risk of all-out Middle East war
Ismael Haniyeh was killed by explosive device planted months ago, sources tell ‘Post’
Sources told the Post Haniyeh has often been more of an obstacle to a final hostage deal, such that his removal could even make a deal more likely.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBAUGUST 1, 2024 16:38Updated: AUGUST 1, 2024 19:46
Ismail Haniyeh seen over a poster showing the Gaza hostages (illustrative)(photo credit: FLASH90, VIA REUTERS)
Former Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed by an explosive device that was secretly smuggled into his guesthouse in Tehran, and not by an airstrike, the New York Times reported and the Jerusalem Post has independently confirmed.
The bomb was hidden in June and used cutting-edge remote technology as has been used in the killing of Iran nuclear chief Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, according to the report and the Post‘s sources.
Moreover, the Post has learned that despite reports that Haniyeh was more practical on hostage deal talks than Hamas Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar, in fact recently, Haniyeh has often been more of an obstacle to a final deal, such that his removal could even make a deal more likely.
Iran dealt a great deal of embarrassment
Further, embarrassingly to the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, they were directly responsible for security at the guesthouse in a large compound called Neshat in a high-end neighborhood in northern Tehran.
Iran has accused Israel of the assassination and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Mossad Director David Barnea previously directly threatened Haniyeh and other top Hamas leaders, but Jerusalem has not taken official credit for the assassination like it did for the recent killings of Hamas and Hezbollah’s military chiefs Mohammed Deif and Fuad Shukr respectively.
Iranians attend the funeral procession of assassinated Hamas chief, Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran, August 1, 2024. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)
It appears that the IRGC or those close to it initially circulated rumors that the attack occurred by drone strike as this could potentially shift more responsibility from the IRGC for the failure of the security measures protecting Haniyeh on other bodies like the air force.
In contrast, the military and the Iranian Intelligence Ministry are often in competition with the IRGC and would want to make it clear that the IRGC was responsible for failing to detect an internally planted bomb, and not other bodies from defending against a drone strike.
Barnea has been known to be fascinated with remote cutting-edge technological solutions for carrying out operations.
Haniyeh has visited Tehran numerous times and stayed at the same guest house all or most of those times, providing the assassins a clear target to plan for.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
UKRAINE
Not surprising: Zelensky defaults
Zelensky Suspends Ukraine’s Foreign Debt Payments Starting Aug 1st
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 04:15 AM
Who could have seen this coming? Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has signed a new law which defers public debt payments until October if necessary, Reuters has confirmed. The bill was signed by Zelensky and returned to parliament on Wednesday.
The government now has the authority to postpone payments on external public debt until restructuring negotiations are seen through, which could then see a moratorium held that would formally mark asovereign default.
“It is necessary to introduce, for the period of transactions to change the terms of borrowing, temporary measures related to the servicing and repayment of debt obligations and a moratorium on satisfaction of creditors’ claims,” the bill released by the president’s office said.
The clock is ticking on debt restructure as a payment freeze agreed upon two years ago will soon expire (on Aug.1), and as Reuters notes: “Earlier this month, Ukraine announced a preliminary deal with a committee of its main bondholders to restructure its near $20 billion worth of international debt.”
Bondholders must still approve the deal, which is likely, given the plan has the support of foreign governments.
Exactly one week ago, Fitch Ratings downgraded the country’s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating from the “CC” level to the lower “C” level.
“The reported agreement with external commercial creditors constitutes a distressed debt exchange (DDE) under its sovereign rating criteria,” Fitch said.
Reuters further reviews that the proposal would see “a 37% nominal haircut on Ukraine’s outstanding international bonds, saving Kyiv $11.4 billion in payments over the next three years – the duration of the country’s program with the International Monetary Fund, according to government statements.”
It was in February 2022 that Ukraine reached a hasty agreement with its creditors to freeze payments of some 23$ billion till August 2024 amid the backdrop of the Russian invasion. Since then Kiev has been almost completely reliant on foreign aid.
This was all long ago predicted, including by EU parliamentarians, given that the longer the war drags on the closer the war-ravaged country is to defaulting…
The Ukrainian state is reeling, unable to finance services its people desperately need. But billions in EU financial assistance are not free; they're loans, which #Ukraine will default on. Meanwhile there is little oversight or assurance the funds are going where they should. pic.twitter.com/CKTRtvXfPk
Following what now inaugurates a period of a short-term debt default, private bondholders are likely agree to push Ukraine’s debt payments until 2027, thus seeking to minimize the impact on Ukraine’s ability for long-term borrowing.
END
RUSSIA/USA
Whelan and Gershkovich freed
WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich & Ex-Marine Paul Whelan Freed By Russia In Major Prisoner Swap With US
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 07:52 AM
In a massive overnight night development, Russia has released Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former US Marine Paul Whelan in a prisoner swap, Bloomberg and others confirm.
Some sources are saying that as many as 20 and 30 political prisoners and journalists might be part of a multi-country exchange reportedly in progress, but what’s certain is that Gershkovich and Whelan are currently on their way to freedom.
“The men, jailed in Russia on espionage charges they and the US deny, are en route to destinations outside of Russia,” reports Bloomberg. “The US and its allies will return prisoners to Russia that they hold under the deal, the people said, asking for anonymity to discuss matters that aren’t yet public.”
And The Moscow Timesspeculated overnight as rumors swirled of an impending major deal with Moscow, “Russia may be preparing to free between 20 and 30 political prisoners and journalists in an imminent exchange with the United States and Germany, a source familiar with the planning said, in what, if confirmed, would be the largest swap since the end of the Cold War.” However, these latter details have yet to be confirmed. It is also as yet unclear who on the Russian side is being freed.
Only very recently, on July 19, a Yekaterinburg handed down a very significant 16-year prison sentence in Gershkovich’s espionage case, after he had been behind bars since is March 2023 arrest.
Russian authorities claim he was spying for the CIA while investigating a major Russian defense company in Yekaterinburg, a city which lies east of the Ural Mountains.
It is widely believed that Russia was using the case as a bargaining chip all along, in order to free high level Russian detainees in the West, just like the prisoner swap involving Brittney Griner and Viktor Bout played out.
As for Marine veteran Paul Whelan, who was issued a 16-year sentence in 2020 on charges of espionage – which the US government condemned as false and unfair – his family had long complained that his case didn’t get the attention from Washington that it deserved. But his fate appears to have suddenly and drastically changed for the better.
Could it be that Tucker Carlson’s big interview with President Vladimir Putin had a part to play, or got the ball rolling in the prisoner deal?
Tucker Carlson spent roughly 10 to 15 minutes imploring Vladimir Putin to release the WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich, vehemently arguing why it’s unjust to keep him — in a way that no corporate journalist would ever dare do with Biden about Assange. https://tuckercarlson.com/the-vladimir-putin-interview/…
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1M Views
Tucker Carlson spent roughly 10 to 15 minutes imploring Vladimir Putin to release the WSJ's Evan Gershkovich, vehemently arguing why it's unjust to keep him — in a way that no corporate journalist would ever dare do with Biden about Assange.https://t.co/YWZXNbRtS7pic.twitter.com/xsLsdUFwq8
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
You can fool some of the people all the time and all the people some of the time but not all the people all the time
Many of caught on to the harm of this vaccine
(zerohedge)
Moderna Shares Tumble 12% After Full-Year Sales Guidance Slashed
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 09:25 AM
Shares of Moderna tumbled in premarket trading in New York after the biotech slashed its full-year sales guidance. The company cited lower sales in Europe, potential revenue deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an “increasingly competitive environment” for respiratory vaccines in the US.
Moderna posted second-quarter earnings that were narrower-than-expected losses and revenue that exceeded the average analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg. It also posted a loss of $1.28 billion, or $3.33 per share, for the quarter, compared to a net loss of $1.38 billion, or $3.62 per share for the same period one year ago.
Snapshot of second quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Loss per share $3.33
Revenue $241 million, -30% y/y, estimate $131 million
Covid-19 vaccine revenue $184 million, estimate $106 million
Total operating expenses $1.60 billion, -27% y/y, estimate $1.63 billion
Cost of goods sold $115 million, -84% y/y, estimate $72.2 million
R&D expenses $1.22 billion, estimate $1.1 billion
SG&A expense $268 million, -19% y/y, estimate $307.7 million
Moderna noted that revenue slumps were primarily due to a transition of the seasonal Covid vaccine market. This is where Covid vaccine demand is lower in spring and generally rises in the fall and winter periods. However, CEO Stephane Bancel said that the demand for vaccines was a “good spring season” for the elderly population in the US.
The focus on earnings was Moderna’s downshift in the full-year product sales guidance from $4 billion to $3 billion to $3.5 billion.
“The update in product sales is driven by three primary factors: very low EU sales in 2024, potential revenue deferrals for certain international sales into 2025, and an increasingly competitive environment for respiratory vaccines in the US,” the company said.
CEO Bancel added, “During the second quarter, we marked the approval of our second mRNA product and signicantly lowered our operating costs. We remain focused on execution for the 2024-25 COVID season and the launch of our RSV vaccine in the US.”
Shares of Moderna plunged as much as 12% in premarket trading.
Goldman anylsts have been keeping an eye on Modern’s selloff…
About a month ago, the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA) granted Moderna $176 million to develop bird flu vaccines. Now, Moderna is banking on a spike in human-to-human bird flu cases.
Athletes: US (7), Bolivia, UK, India; musicians: US (5), Canada, Portugal, Bangladesh, New Zealand; “vaxxidents”: UK, Croatia, India; journos: US (3), UK, Spain; nurses: US (7), UK, NZ; & more
into USA…Adams said the killer illegals do NOT represent the ‘good’ illegals…who the EFF is Adams talking about or two? This nutjob forgot we are still coming to terms with the raped & murdered…
American women and girls? And many in New York, New York City.
Now massive explosion of crime in New York, where New York City ranks as rape capital of America due to the illegals. This particular Brooklyn democrat community…now devastated by illegal crime.
the phucking police & government are lying to the population, Prime Minister Starmer continues this bullshit lie…just like what America will face now due to Kamala Harris & Obama & Biden’s illegals
Many American women and girls, especially fair skinned, white girls, blond, will be raped and die due to the illegals Kamala Harris let into USA unvetted as border CZAR. she did this.
Shoot these fuckers; many of the Park Police in that protest were told stand down and they were physically harmed…many harmed…Harris & Biden sent message (I am told inside) to not respond
and let the HAMAS protestors hit and beat them and do not respond.
IMO, police, national guard etc. must use weapons, use guns and shoot these fuckers. This is illegal. Millions of $ damage on our monuments. Who is paying for these thugs. We have intel it is Iran.
Shoot them next time, make announcement, say in future you will be shot dead if you touch a police officer. The Park police life is in danger, so use deadly force.
Expert Drops Bombshell: Covid Shots Have Depopulated EarthA leading expert has just raised the alarm after analyzing official government data that proves Covid mRNA shots have successfully depopulated the human race.READ THE FULL REPORTThe White House Announces Nearly $2 Billion in New Weapons and Military Aid for UkraineThe White House has allocated approximately $1.7 billion in new weapons and military aid for Ukraine. White House National Security Spokesman John Kirby announced a $200 million weapons package during a press call on Monday morning. This package is being provided under President Joe Biden’s drawdown authority. The Department of Defense (DOD) also unveiled an additional $1.5 billion for the …READ THE FULL REPORTBarron Trump’s Friends Reveal His High School Life: Girlfriends, Behavior, Secret Service Agents, and Fake Names…Barron Trump was closely monitored by the Secret Service, attended classes under an alias, and was subject to a complete social media blackout to ensure his safety throughout high school. Agents followed Barron Trump, the youngest son of former President Donald Trump and first lady Melania, around the campus of the exclusive Oxbridge Academy. They stood guard outside his classroom …READ THE FULL REPORTMichael Moore: ‘White Men Will Be Shown the Door in November — This Country Is Female’Michael Moore has fully embraced Kamala Harris’s rhetoric, declaring that “this country is female” and insisting that white males will be “shown the door” come November. In a blog post titled “Now, We Crush Trump,” published on Monday, Michael Moore outlined his strategy for Kamala Harris to secure an electoral victory. He advised her to focus on identity politics and …READ THE FULL REPORTFemale Police Officer Shot Multiple Times by Illegal Alien From VenezuelaEarly Sunday morning in San Antonio, Texas, police were called to a home following reports of a domestic violence incident. Upon entering the home, officers found 25-year-old Jorge Chacon-Gutierrez, an illegal alien from Venezuela, lying in bed with a rifle. Chacon-Gutierrez opened fire on the officers, prompting them to return fire. During the exchange, a female officer was shot. Chacon-Gutierrez …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
How Will You Sit For This Friday’s Close?
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 10:35 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
As widely expected, as our Fed watcher Philip Marey covers here, the Fed left rates unchanged at 5.50% and will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities, agency debt and agency MBS by $60bn a month. There was no update of its economic projections, and only marginal changes to its statement, which was therefore more hawkish than expected. However, Powell very clearly put a September rate cut on display in the press conference.
Overall, recent developments in inflation and unemployment seem to warrant a rate cut ahead. However, inflation could still prove sticky, and Philip continues to think the Fed cuts based on worse ‘stag’ not better ‘flation’ data. He also strongly disagrees with the Fed’s projection of 4 rate cuts a year in both 2025 and 2026, which he thinks will be derailed by politics. Philip still assumes Trump wins in 2024 –as polls few read the methodology of show him far ahead and far behind Harris, and “no tax on tips” is joined by “no tax on social security” as a carrot for more voters than “no student loans” from the Democrats– and imposes a universal tariff, making a rebound in inflation unavoidable. On that basis, we expect only two rate cuts in 2025, all in the first half, and nothing in 2026.
“Challenging days are ahead… We are ready for every scenario.” While this is appropriate wording for the US election and the global outlook if the Fed is only able to cut rates 100bp, it wasn’t said by Real Clear Politics or Powell, but by the Israeli prime minister last night. In a dramatic 24 hours, Hezbollah’s #2 was assassinated in Beirut, then Hamas’s #1 Ismail Haniyeh *in Tehran*. All see Israel’s hand behind it, and Iran’s humiliated Ayatollah Khamenei has pledged revenge, the New York Times reporting this will be a direct, coordinated ‘Axis of Resistance’ attack on Israel, as in April. Iran just closed its airspace for Haniyeh’s funeral in Tehran Friday, while Hezbollah’s #2 will be buried in Lebanon, followed by a public speech by leader Nasrallah. The recent pattern suggests any attack on Israel would follow within days, so could again fall on the weekend. How will you sit for this Friday’s close?
April’s Iranian attack on Israel was seen by some as geopolitical ‘theatre’, but as I pointed out, they were serious rehearsals for more to come, while the precision Israeli response was an indication of the strike capability perhaps just used in Tehran: regardless, there appears no play-acting now. US Defense Secretary Austin has stated the US will again defend Israel if it’s attacked. The Israeli press talk of swarms of explosive drones and ballistic and cruise missiles from multiple directions aimed at military bases in Haifa or Tel Aviv; and/or major cyber attacks to take down banks and utilities; and/or attempted assassinations of Israeli or Jewish targets internationally.
Crucially, Israel has reportedly used diplomatic backchannels to inform Iran that any major damage or casualties on its end means full-scale war. In short, Iran (and Hezbollah) will either have to back down and lose face, or finesse an attack that looks significant but damages little – where any misfire will trigger the regional war so many have been concerned about, or just start that war regardless, even if this was not the timing they would have chosen. There is a scenario where nothing much now happens – but it looks ever less probable than the far worse alternatives. As a result, markets are starting to move.
The first stage of the market reaction to geopolitics like this is risk off. US Treasuries were already bid post-Fed, but could get more of a lift. Gold is likely to go higher. The Swiss Franc, the Japanese Yen (already on a roll post-BOJ), and the US dollar benefit from this kind of backdrop, but Powell leaned against the latter so it will be interesting to see which sentiment prevails.
The second stage of the market reaction is energy. Oil prices moved slightly higher on the first assassination in Beirut, and again on the second in Tehran. Headlines of war risk suggest more of the same – and much more if missiles start flying. The question then is how bad things could get.
Note the recent Israeli destruction of the Houthi port and oil storage at Hodeida, a more significant blow to the group than anything the West has achieved via Operation Prosperity Guardian and airstrikes. This implies Israeli willingness and means to destroy Iranian oil facilities. That could reduce Iran’s oil exports from current estimates of 1.0 – 1.5m barrels a day to zero.
However, the global demand backdrop is hardly bullish for oil at the moment, and OPEC+ is still holding to production cuts to try to prop prices up. They could, if needed, surely fill any supply gap quite easily. That would suggest immediate headline-related oil price spikes might not be sustained for long. Unless it isn’t only Iranian energy targeted.
Hezbollah would certainly try to hit Israel’s offshore natural gas fields, which would have a moderate knock-on effect on European gas prices given what we have seen recently. Far more significant would be if Iran or its proxies targeted Gulf or Saudi oil facilities or shipping, as in the past. This is less likely initially given recent rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran. However, any US or Saudi/Gulf assistance to Israel during an Axis attack on it, as in April, and especially if the US actually then *attacks* Iran back alongside Israel, might open that door.
So might an Iranian reaction to any more military blows if they mark a devastating setback to a geostrategy it has been successfully employing for years. There might be compelling strategic logic for Tehran to act in a destructive manner to force the US and Europe to back away from Israel and push for a ceasefire on better terms for Iran than it could otherwise achieve. That’s not an immediate risk, but it’s not one to dismiss if things escalate.
Iran could also accelerate its rush towards a nuclear weapon, which despite the naïve hopes of those who backed the 2015 JCPOA, and those who backed Trump sanctions, is reportedly very much on track. Were US or Israeli intelligence to flag that this breakthrough is close to occurring, or a public demonstration of such is somehow made, albeit long before such a device could be fitted to a warhead, it would force a massive global escalation, or an equally massive global capitulation. In which case, others would be taking notes and making plans.
So, yes, challenging days lie ahead, and you should be ready for every scenario.
Even one where rates don’t get cut that much, or where central banks don’t get the financial press headline.
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
this says a mouthful
(zerohedge)
Brent Crude Call Options Soar Most Since April Amid OPEC+ & Middle East Crisis In Focus
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 11:35 AM
Brent crude’s price trajectory hangs in the balance as OPEC+ ministers discuss output policy on Thursday. Insiders tell Reuters that the cartel will likely stick to its current production cuts, though a partial rollback is slated this fall. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions continued to soar as Iran ordered a retaliatory strike on Israel following the assassination of a political Hamas leader in Tehran.
Top ministers from OPEC+ will discuss crude output policy during an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting on Thursday morning. Sources tell Reuters there will be no changes to the current cutting policy that has slashed 5.86 million barrels per day (bpd), or about 5.7% of global demand since late 2022.
In June, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia agreed to extend cuts of 3.66 million bpd through the end of 2025. OPEC+ also extended the most recent round of cuts – a 2.2 million bpd cut by eight members – to the end of September.
In addition to traders monitoring OPEC+ headlines, many are on edge, awaiting the next batch of headlines from the Middle East as war risks broaden.
On Wednesday, Brent soared through the $81/bbl handle, while West Texas Intermediate traded above $78/bbl after posting the largest single daily gain since October. This comes after Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for a direct strike on Israel, the New York Times reported. This followed an Israeli assassination operation of a political leader of Hamas in Tehran and a senior Hezbollah member in Beirut.
Meanwhile, rising Middle East tensions unleashed a flurry of Brent call options, with as many as 300k calls trading Wednesday. This was the highest number of call options that traded on Brent since the brief Israel and Iran turmoil in April.
More than 300,000 Brent call option contracts traded on Wednesday, the largest one-day amount since the last round of elevated regional tensions in April. The volume was dominated by large call spreads, which offer cheaper ways to profit from a rally, including $87 and $90 spreads for October, as well as $110 and $130 spreads for November. Brent was last near $81. -BBG
Call options on Brent crude spiked Wednesday to the highest level since mid-April.
Option market now suggests traders are concerned about geopolitics.
“The biggest determinant of where prices might go is a combination of geopolitics, but critically OPEC’s decision in the coming weeks around the pace at which it unwinds its cuts, and of course the Chinese demand,” Wael Sawan, Chief Executive Officer of Shell Plc said in a Bloomberg TV interview. He added, “At the moment we see that the physical markets are well balanced, if anything slightly tight.”
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Venezuela
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0792 DOWN 0.0022
USA/ YEN 150.56 UP 0.457 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15
GBP/USA 1.2785 UP 0.0066
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3823 UP .0015 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 15 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.22%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 39.64 PTS OR 0.23%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.28%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ENGLAND
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY RED EXCEPT ENGLAND
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 39.64 PTS OR 0.23 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 6.36 PTS OR 0.22%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.28%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 975.49 PTS OR 2.44%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2439.00
silver:$28.97
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.15 UP 30 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2434 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2557)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.07 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.035…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 12 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.978% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.270 DOWN 7 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.202 DOWN 13 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2448.80
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.70
Your 12:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 12:00 PM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 84.62 PTS OR 1.01%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 424.60 PTS OR 2.33%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 101.04 PTS OR 2.14 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 210.70 OR 1.90%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 906.43 PTS OR 2.68% PTS
WTI Oil price 77,20 12EST/
Brent Oil: 80.11 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.45 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 44/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.244 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.902 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.147 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0793 DOWN 0.0031 OR 31 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2743 DOWN 0.0111 OR 111 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.880 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.034
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.64 DOWN 0.150 YEN UP 15 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3870 UP 0.0062//CDN dollar DOWN 62 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 76.87
Brent OIL: 80.19
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 10 BASIS pts to 3.980
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 4.270%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 15 PTS AT 4.161
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.135 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 104.14 UP 28 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.08 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.50 UP 0 AND 51/100 roubles
GOLD 2,442.70 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.44 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 495.00 PTS OR 1.21%
NASDAQ DOWN 472.44 PTS OR 2.44 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.51 UP 2.15 PTS OR 13.14%
GLD: $225,81 DOWN .74 OR 0.35%
SLV/ $26.03 DOWN .36 OR 1.36%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks & Bond Yields Puke Amid ‘Most Volatile Earnings Season’ Since GFC
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 04:00 PM
…well that escalated quickly…
Bad (macro) news was bad news today as jobless claims surged, manufacturing surveys slumped, and construction spending tanked, sending rate-cut expectations higher…
Source: Bloomberg
…but apparently prompting growth-scare anxiety that punched US equity markets in the face.
Small Caps crashed 4%, Nasdaq 3% and The Dow and S&P down 2%…
This was the S&P 500’s worst start to August since 2002.
The S&P broke back below its 50DMA…
…and the Nasdaq dumped back to its 100DMA…
Yesterday’s short-squeeze on The Fed was eviscerated as ‘most shorted’ stocks crashed 8% from yesterday’s highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 stocks lost $430BN in market cap today – a stunning swing from the 2.5% rally out of the gate thanks to META to then dropping almost 5% from the morning highs….
Source: Bloomberg
Semis were slaughtered today, erasing all of yesterday’s bid surge and then some – dropping to their lowest since mid-May…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields also plunged today – led by the short-end (2Y -9bps, 30Y -3bps) – dragging yields down around 20bps overall on the week so far…
Source: Bloomberg
Notably, the 10Y yield broke back below 4.00% for the first time since February…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve steepened dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was clubbed like a baby seal again, testing down to $62,000 before bouncing a little…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil tanked after WTI tested up near $79 on MidEast tensions…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was relatively quiet today, finding support at $2440…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, if it has felt like a volatile earnings season, that’s because it is…in fact, as Goldman Sachs trader Brian Garrett noted earlier, this has been the most volatile earnings season since the financial crisis…
…by the end of this week we will largely be through earnings and onto a hopefully quiet August (and then the chaos of the lead-up to the election)…
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
USA economy falling apart. 12 month highs on jobless claims
(zerohedge)
Initial Jobless Claims Surge To 12-Month Highs
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 08:35 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time rose to 249k last week – the highest since last August…
Source: Bloomberg
Texas claims continue to fall as the storm-related surge normalizes…
Source: Bloomberg
Additionally, the number of Americans continuing to claim unemployment benefits rose to 1.877 million last week – the highest since Nov 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Is this ‘bad’ enough news to lock in September rate cuts?
end
this is the more accurate of the mfr output: ISM It slid to 46.8 from 48.5%
Slump goes on: Manufacturers contract for fourth month in a row, ISM finds
ISM manufacturing index drops to 8-month low
MarketWatch
Aug. 1, 2024 at 10:07?a.m.
The numbers:
A key barometer of U.S. factories fell in July for the fourth consecutive month and hit an eight-month low, a sign that an ongoing slump in the industrial side of the economy has deepened.The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index slid to 46.8% last month from 48.5% in June. Numbers below 50% signal that the manufacturing sector is shrinking.””U.S. manufacturing activity entered deeper into contraction,” said Timothy Fiore, chairman of the ISM survey. “Demand remains subdued, as companies show an unwillingness to invest in capital and inventory due to current federal monetary policy and other conditions.”ISM reports on manufacturers and service-oriented companies offer a window into the health of the economy. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast the index to rise slightly last month.Key details:The index of new orders fell 1.9 points to 47.4%.The production barometer dropped 2.6 points to 45.9%. That’s the lowest level since the economy was shut down in May 2020 at the height of the pandemic.The employment gauge sank 5.9 points to 43.4%, marking a four-year low.The price index, a measure of inflation, rose 0.8 points to 52.9%. But it’s almost back to low prepandemic levels.Big picture: The industrial side of the economy is unlikely to gather steam until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. High borrowing costs have sapped the economy and curtailed demand for manufactured goods.
end
Construction spending falls for second straight month in June, adding to sense of cooling economy
spending down 0.3% vs. forecast of 0.2% gain
MarketWatch
Construction spending fell 0.3% in June to $2.15 trillion, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.Economists were expecting construction spending to rise 0.2%.Construction spending reveals how much the government and private companies spend on projects including housing and highways. The more the U.S. spends on construction, the higher the level of economic activity.The government revised its reading on construction spending in June to a decline of 0.4% from the initial estimate of a 0.1% decline.Over the past year, construction spending is up 6.2%.In terms of residential real estate, private construction fell 0.3% in June, with single-family construction dropping 1.2% and multifamily construction inching up 0.1%.Spending on public residential construction fell by 0.4%
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Just what a bankrupt nation needs
(zerohedge)
Migrant Shelter Costs In Massachusetts To Exceed $1 Billion For The Next Several Years, State Predicts
Gov. Maura Healey’s administration expects to spend more money than originally anticipated over the next fiscal year on the emergency shelter system housing migrants and local families, according to revised estimates released this month.
Shelter-related costs are now projected to top $1 billion in fiscal year 2025 if caseloads remain the same, an increase from the $915 million state budget writers first said they expected to spend and a sign that officials do not forecast a slowdown in demand.
The numbers were included in a Monday report released only hours after Healey signed into law a state budget that includes $325 million for the shelter system and relies on $175 million in one-time dollars from the pandemic to pay down costs.
Spending is not expected to slow down after fiscal 2025 and top Democrats on Beacon Hill have previously acknowledged a likely need to allocate more taxpayer dollars to the shelter network.
In a presentation this month to a state commission, officials with the Healey administration said Massachusetts taxpayers will most likely need to shell out more than $1 billion in fiscal years 2026 and 2027 if the number of people seeking state-funded shelter services does not subside.
Sen. Ryan Fattman, a Sutton Republican who sits on the commission, said Massachusetts lawmakers and the commission should consider making permanent changes to the shelter system to keep it viable for residents.
“We can’t be seen as a state where, whether you’re from South Dakota or South America or anywhere in between, you just get to come and we’re going to take care of you,” he told the Herald in an interview Tuesday.
“A society can’t work that way. There has to be rules of the road and we’ve had very few in this program, which has become an albatross financially.”
The projections for fiscal year 2025 were revised in mid-July based on the assumption that the shelter system will remain at its 7,500-family cap moving forward, four overflow shelters stay open, and the “same level and supports from FY24” continue.
The original estimate of $915 million did not fully account for the operation of the four overflow sites, according to the Executive Office of Administration and Finance.
A spokesperson for the budget-writing office said the Healey administration “has been clear that the current size of the emergency assistance shelter system is unsustainable – both in terms of physical space and financially.”
“This is why the administration recently introduced a new prioritization policy and a five-day stay limit at temporary respite centers, in addition to implementing the nine-month length-of-stay limit in EA shelters,” the spokesperson said in a statement to the Herald.
The lion’s share of spending this fiscal year is expected to come in the “shelter and associated services” category, with more than $775 million likely to be shuttled to providers, according to the presentation.
Healey’s administration anticipates spending another $76 million on overflow shelters, $48 million on school and municipal supports, $44 million on intake and clinical assessment sites, and $25 million on work authorization and workforce initiatives, the presentation said.
But officials said legislators have not appropriated enough money to cover costs in fiscal year 2025 and dollars are expected to dry up on Jan. 1, 2025, if a $470 million spending gap is not closed, according to the presentation.
About half of the dollars necessary to cover spending in fiscal year 2025 have already been appropriated but administration officials said they will need to tap the rest of an account filled with leftover pandemic-era dollars that can only be used once.
“Our proposal to use (pandemic-era) funding to cover the remaining FY25 costs is a responsible strategy to address the needs of the system without impacting other critical programs,” the spokesperson for Healey’s budget-writing office said.
A push to allow Healey to access more pandemic-era funds could come later this year, but would likely face Republican resistance during a time in the legislative calendar when formal sessions are no longer held and any one lawmaker can block an advancing bill.
If pandemic-era dollars are not made available, Healey officials warned they will need to implement a “structured caseload reduction in direct shelter,” reduce or end overflow shelters, and curtail or end additional services, according to the presentation.
The governor has already put in place a range of measures intended to curb shelter demand.
Families with children and pregnant women, including migrants, can only stay at overflow shelters for five days before they are kicked out — a sharp change from the month-long time limit they were previously offered — and must wait six months before accessing the larger system.
State officials are also now prioritizing Massachusetts families who are homeless because of a no-fault eviction or because of a “sudden or unusual circumstances” beyond their control like a flood or fire, or if they have at least one family member who is a veteran.
The move came after Healey limited stays in the shelter system to nine months with several options for extensions.
Updated estimates from the state come as the Massachusetts Fiscal Alliance, a conservative group, warned that shelter costs could become a “fiscal time bomb” once temporary pandemic-era dollars run out.
“Massachusetts cannot continue to fund the world’s illegal and inadmissible migrants. We simply do not have the capability or the funds,” the group’s spokesman, Paul Craney, said in a statement. “Healey needs to pass into law that the state’s right to shelter law gives preference to Massachusetts residents first. She recently took steps to add this policy but it needs to become the law going forward.”
Spending on emergency shelters ballooned starting last year when a system that has historically housed around 4,000 families soon came to care for 7,500, according to official statistics.
Massachusetts’ housing and health agencies turned to a sprawling network of hotels, private organizations, National Guardsmen, resettlement agencies, and state buildings to house and provide services to local families and migrants.
Healey’s administration spent $793 million on the shelter network as of mid-June and the number is expected to grow as budget writers process invoices for the rest of fiscal year 2024. Officials estimate spending in the last fiscal year could reach $932 million.
Rep. Paul Frost, an Auburn Republican who is a part of the shelter commission, said he was not surprised to learn that costs are expected to exceed $1 billion this fiscal year.
“It’s not shocking. I mean, when they wouldn’t address the issue of the influx into the system from out-of-state applicants back in the fall, you have to expect this was going to happen,” he said.
end
USA/THREE PALESTINIAN TERRORISTS
WHAT ON EARTH IS BIDEN DOING? Letting in terrorists. USA is the laughing stock of the world
(zerohedge)
Three Palestinian Terror Suspects Detained At Southern Border As Agents Lament Lack Of Resources
TUESDAY, JUL 30, 2024 – 02:05 PM
Three Palestinian terror suspects were detained at the Southern Border earlier this month, the New York Post reported this week.
The report says the terrorists were “found to have possible ties to terrorist organizations”. One migrant had photos on his phone that included a “masked man holding an AK-47 rifle”, according to law enforcement.
The Post stated that Federal authorities in the San Diego sector apprehended three Palestinians and a Turkish migrant, all suspected of terror group ties. These individuals were among dozens of migrants who surrendered to border agents, sources said.
An investigation into the migrants is ongoing. They have been transferred to ICE, and the FBI’s Joint Terrorism Task Force is involved.
This incident highlights security threats entering the US via the southern border, especially in San Diego, according to the Post. Overwhelmed Border Patrol agents, lacking tools to fully vet migrants, rely mainly on US terror watchlists and resources, without access to international databases.
One agent said: “Knowing who these guys are, we have, like, no access to anything international. Like, we really don’t and it kind of sucks.”
“I wanted to get into Border Patrol and protect from terrorists. And it’s like, well, I probably let terrorists in the country,” he added.
“San Diego Field Office Intelligence Unit assesses that individuals inspired by, or reacting to the current Israel-Hamas conflict may attempt travel to or from the area of hostilities in the Middle East via circuitous transit across the Southwest border,” an alert to border agents in the area had previous said.
“Foreign fighters motivated by ideology or mercenary soldiers of fortune may attempt to obfuscate travel to or from the US to or from countries in the Middle East through Mexico,” it read.
The Post notes that the migrants crossed the border shortly after the Biden administration implemented new asylum restrictions, which have loopholes allowing many to stay. San Diego sees many migrants from over 100 countries that don’t accept deportees, making them exempt from restrictions.
Consequently, migrants from regions like India, China, and ISIS-recruiting Central Asia flock to San Diego. Despite overall slower migration due to new policies and summer heat, agents remain concerned about terrorists entering and those already released due to limited information from their home countries.
Has anyone seen “Border Czar” Kamala Harris?
USA/MUSLIM IMPRISONED TERRORISTS/
WHAT A DISGRACE!
“National Disgrace” – Republican Lawmakers Blast Biden Admin Plea Deal With Three 9/11 Defendants
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 10:15 AM
“The Administration’s cowardice in the face of terror is a national disgrace.”
Republican Kentucky Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell condemned the Biden-Harris Administration for what he described as weakness in the face of America’s enemies.
“The plea deal with terrorists – including Khalid Sheik Mohammed, the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks that killed thousands of Americans – is a revolting abdication of the government’s responsibility to defend America and provide justice,” McConnell said, New York Post reported.
McConnell was not alone in his bitterness that three defendants allegedly involved in the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks have entered into a plea deal with the United States Department of Defense (DOD) after years of incarceration at Guantanamo Bay.
Nearly 3,000 people were killed, and many thousands more injured in the coordinated Islamist suicide attacks carried out by al-Qaeda on U.S. soil in 2001.
As Stephen Katte reports via The Epoch Times, according to a July 31 statement from the DOD, Susan Escallier, who is the Convening Authority for Military Commissions, has entered into pretrial agreements with Khalid Shaikh (Sheikh) Mohammad, Walid Muhammad Salih Mubarak Bin’ Attash, and Mustafa Ahmed Adam al Hawsawi.
Mohammad, a Kuwaiti-Pakistani mechanical engineer, was the former head of al-Qaeda’s propaganda department and is accused of being the 911 mastermind. He allegedly presented the idea of hijacking planes and flying them into U.S. buildings to Osama bin Laden around 1996, and later helped train some of the hijackers.
Hawsawi has been accused of helping with financial and travel arrangements for the hijackers. Attash is accused of assisting with combat training for the terrorists.
Specific terms and conditions of the pretrial agreements have not been made publicly available by the DOD.
The three defendants, along with two others, Ali Abdul Aziz Ali and Ramzi Bin al Shibh, were first jointly charged and arraigned in June 2008. They were charged and prosecuted again in May 2012.
Aziz Ali and al Shibh did not enter into the plea deal. Last September, a military judge ruled that al Shibh was too mentally incompetent to stand trial.
An image of a courtroom shows Khalid Sheikh Mohammed (C) and co-defendant Walid Bin Attash (L) attending a pre-trial session in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, on Dec. 8, 2008. (Sketch by Janet Hamlin-Pool/Getty Images)
ACLU Says Death Penalty Off the Table
The American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), a non-profit civil rights advocacy group, says Mohammed is their client, and the deal involved the defendants agreeing to plead guilty in exchange for life imprisonment instead of the death penalty.
Anthony D. Romero, executive director of the ACLU, said in a July 31 statement that this deal was the “right call” for everybody involved, especially after “nearly two decades of litigation.”
“This plea agreement further underscores the fact that the death penalty is out of step with the fundamental values of our democratic system. It is inhumane, inequitable, and unjust,” he said.
“We urge the U.S. government to also quickly relocate the men cleared for transfer, and finally end all indefinite detentions and unfair trials at Guantánamo.”
According to Romero, “closing the chapter on these cases with a plea agreement will also provide a measure of transparency and justice for 9/11 family members.”
That’s not how the families of the victims see this plea deal…
In a media statement about the plea agreement, Brett Eagleson, president of 9/11 Justice, a grassroots movement made up of survivors of the terrorist attacks and family members of those lost, said the group was “deeply troubled by these plea deals.”
“These plea deals should not perpetuate a system of closed-door agreements, where crucial information is hidden without giving the families of the victims the chance to learn the full truth,” he said.
Eagleson said the 9/11 Justice group wants more access “to these individuals for information” to provide closure for all those affected by the terrorist attacks.
Republican New York Rep. Mike Lawler described the plea deals as a slap in the face to the families and survivors of 9/11.
“Disgusting that these terrorist scumbags are being let off without a trial. 9/11 victims, their families, and our heroic first responders deserve true justice!” he posted on Twitter.
The White House clarified President Joe Biden was informed of the plea agreement only on Wednesday and had no role in the process, which is being handled through the military justice system, according to the New York Post.
Former President Donald Trump’s administration previously rejected any plea bargains with the suspected terrorists held at Guantanamo
END
(EpochTimes)
this is what inflation will do
A $1 Million Starter Home Is Now The Norm In 237 American Cities
Hundreds of cities across the United States now have starter homes priced at $1 million dollars or more, as housing shortages push prices to record highs, according to real estate marketplace Zillow.
The typical starter home—or property in the lowest third of local home values—is worth at least $1 million in 237 cities, Zillow said in a July 25 report.
This is the highest number of cities with million-dollar typical starter homes in U.S. history, up from 84 cities five years ago.
Roughly half of the 237 cities are in California alone, followed on the list by New York, New Jersey, Florida, and Massachusetts.
By metropolitan area, the New York City metro area, which includes parts of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, leads with million-dollar starter homes in 48 cities. It’s followed by the San Francisco metro area (44 cities), Los Angeles metro area (35 cities), San Jose metro area (15 cities), and Miami and Seattle metro areas (eight cities each). Zillow attributed the price spike to “a housing shortage that worsened over the [COVID-19] pandemic.”
In June, 1.19 million homes were in inventory, far fewer than the 1.7 million properties in June 2019, according to data from real estate brokerage Redfin. The number of active listings also dropped during this period. The shortage of homes is keeping prices high.
The inventories dipped as mortgage rates shot up, giving many homeowners second thoughts about selling their properties for fear that they would have to buy a new home at higher rates. This helped tighten the housing supply and raise costs.
Zillow predicts that a “slightly more balanced market may be just over the horizon,” which would benefit buyers. The company stated that as the effects of the rate lock ease and builders continue to add more supply, more homes are coming on the market.
“With more homes [for sale], buyers have more time to weigh their options. Rising housing inventory is also helping the negotiating power swing in buyers’ favor as price cuts are at record highs for this time of year,” Zillow stated.
However, Rick Arvielo, head of mortgage firm New American Funding, disagrees that inventory could bring down prices.
“You’re not going to see house prices decline,” he said in an interview with Bankrate. “There’s just not enough inventory.”
Jessica Lautz, vice president of research at the National Association of Realtors, also doesn’t foresee home prices going down.
“We’re actually forecasting that home prices will continue to grow based on the lack of inventory and demand for home ownership,” she previously told The Epoch Times.
Election, Interest Rates
The cost of a typical starter home nationwide is just more than $196,600, according to Zillow, which called the price level “comfortably affordable for a median-income household.”
But as starter home prices have risen by more than half in the past five years, many prospective homebuyers have put off purchases. Last year, the median age of a first-time buyer was 35, a year older than in 2019.
Another factor contributing to buyer hesitancy is the upcoming election in November.
“I’m working with several buyers who are waiting for the election before they make a move,” Matthew Purdy, a Redfin real estate agent in northern Colorado, said in a July 25 statement.
“Some of them say they’ll only buy a home if their candidate wins. Others are waiting because they feel the economy and housing market are shaky, and hope it will improve after the election.
“I am working with a few foreign buyers who are wary about investing any more money in U.S. real estate before they see who takes office.”
After the election, mortgage rates will continue to play a key role in how willing buyers are to purchase a home. The mortgage rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has declined by roughly 1 percentage point since the peak in late October 2023.
However, the rate remains more than double what it was three years ago. For mortgage rates to come down meaningfully, the Federal Reserve must bring down its interest rates.
The Fed has kept interest rates unchanged at a range between 5.25 percent and 5.50 percent since July 2023. Investors had expected rate cuts to kick off earlier this year, but that didn’t happen.
To make matters worse, rates could be pushed up further. Fed officials said during the agency’s June meeting that this was a possibility if inflation kept rising or remained elevated.
The longer the interest rates are kept at elevated levels, the longer mortgage rates will also remain higher, making things tougher for buyers.
end
HERSHEY CHOCOLATES
Discretionary spending is now being pulled back. Take a look at Hershey!!!
Hershey Slides As CEO Warns: “Consumers Pulling Back On Discretionary Spending”
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 12:55 PM
US consumers are tightening their belts in the second half of the year as pandemic savings dry up, credit card debt maxes out, and employment growth slows. Elevated inflation and high interest rates further pressure households, leading to a shaky start to the corporate earnings season.
One week ago, Goldman analyst Natasha de la Grense told clients, “Not a great start to earnings season in Consumer, with very few positive surprises so far. Both high-end consumption and the low-income consumer are weak.”
From McDonald’s to Nestle to Pepsi, major restaurants and food companies have issued softer guidance, thanks partly to a slowdown in consumption spending.
The latest food company to warn about consumers pulling back is chocolate bar maker Hershey, whose shares fell in the premarket after reporting a second-quarter top and bottom line miss and slashing guidance for the year.
Shares were lower by about 3.5% in premarket. Shares have also been oscillating in a tight trading range for ten months.
Here’s a snapshot of the second quarter earnings results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Adjusted EPS $1.27 vs. $2.01 y/y, estimate $1.44 (Bloomberg Consensus)
Net sales $2.07 billion, -17% y/y, estimate $2.31 billion
North America confectionery net sales $1.58 billion, -21% y/y, estimate $1.79 billion
North America salty snacks net sales $289.9 million, +6.4% y/y, estimate $279.1 million
International net sales $204.8 million, -8.9% y/y, estimate $227 million
Net sales at organic constant FX -16.8% vs. +5% y/y, estimate -7.52%
North America confectionery sales at constant FX -20.7% vs. +4.8% y/y, estimate -10%
North America salty snacks sales at constant FX +6.4% vs. +6.3% y/y, estimate +3.98%
International net sales at organic constant FX -10.4% vs. +6.2% y/y, estimate +2.28%
Adjusted gross profit $895.2 million, -20% y/y, estimate $959.9 million
Adjusted gross margin 43.2% vs. 45.2% y/y, estimate 41.7%
Organic volume/mix -18%
North America confectionery -22%
North America salty snacks +9%
International -16%
Hershey also lowered its 2024 guidance and expects net sales to slide 2%, compared with a previous outlook of 2% to 3% growth. The company expects a reported earnings per share drop of 1% to 3%, compared to its earlier outlook of flat earnings per share. On an adjusted basis, Hershey expects earnings per share to be “down slightly” from flat.
“Today’s operating environment remains dynamic with consumers pulling back on discretionary spending,” Hershey Company President and Chief Executive Officer Michele Buck wrote in a statement, adding, “Our business has been impacted by these trends.”
Add Hershey to the growing list of restaurants and food companies warning about a consumer slowdown.
Goldman analysts have told clients to short low-income and mid-income consumer stocks. It’s only a matter of time before analysts start targeting upper-income consumer stocks.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
NEWT GINGRICH
SWAMP NEWS
Biden tries it again: new rules for many more eligible for student debt relief
(EpochTimes)
Biden Announces New Rules To Make Millions More Eligible For Student Debt Relief
President Joe Biden announced new rules on July 31 that make millions more borrowers eligible for student loan debt relief.
“Today, my Administration took another major step to cancel student debt for approximately 30 million Americans,” Biden said.
“We won’t stop fighting to provide relief to student loan borrowers, fix the broken student loan system, and help borrowers get out from under the burden of student debt.”
Starting on Aug. 1, the Education Department will send emails to all borrowers with at least one outstanding federal student loan with updates on potential debt relief and a notice of the Aug. 30 deadline to call and opt out if they are not interested in the program. The email does not guarantee eligibility.
The department will finalize the rules this fall, based on the administration’s existing work to provide $168 billion in student loan relief to nearly 4.8 million borrowers. If the rules are finalized as proposed, the number of borrowers eligible for student loan relief will climb to more than 30 million, including those already approved.
“These latest steps will mark the next milestone in our efforts to help millions of borrowers who’ve been buried under a mountain of student loan interest, or who took on debt to pay for college programs that left them worse off financially, those who have been paying their loans for twenty or more years, and many others,” Education Department Secretary Miguel Cardona said in a statement.
The administration released its first set of draft rules in April, directing Cardona to grant further student loan debt relief to tens of millions of borrowers nationwide, including those with balances growing from years of interest.
If finalized, the rules would allow Cardona to provide partial or full debt relief to borrowers who owe more than they did at the start of repayment, those who have been in repayment for more than 20 years, those eligible for loan forgiveness but have not yet applied, and those enrolled in low-financial value programs.
The Education Department said if the rules are approved, the proposed relief would automatically apply to eligible borrowers.
Borrowers who instead want to opt out of debt relief can do so by contacting their servicer by Aug. 30, but will not be able to opt back into the program.
Currently, the Biden–Harris administration has approved $69.2 billion for 946,000 borrowers through fixes to Public Service Loan Forgiveness, $51 billion for more than a million borrowers through adjustments to income-driven repayment counts, and $28.7 billion for more than 1.6 million who were “cheated by their schools, saw their institutions precipitously close, or are covered by related court settlements.”
The administration also granted $14.1 billion to more than 548,000 borrowers with total and permanent disabilities and $5.5 billion to 414,000 borrowers through the SAVE Plan.
“From day one of my administration, I promised to fight to ensure higher education is a ticket to the middle class, not a barrier to opportunity,” Biden said.
“I will never stop working to make higher education affordable and to make sure our administration delivers for the American people.”
END
Does not make sense except we are dealing with idiots
(zerohedge)
L.A. Officials Reject Newsom Order To Clear Out Homeless Encampments
Los Angeles officials are pushing back on California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s order this month to start clearing homeless encampments, arguing the effort to clean up the city’s streets won’t work.
“I do not believe that it is ultimately a solution to homelessness,” said Democrat Mayor Karen Bass, according to the Denver Gazette.
“How are they supposed to pay for their ticket, and what happens when they don’t pay?” she continued. “Does it go into a warrant and give us an excuse to incarcerate somebody?”
Los Angeles County Supervisors Chair Lindsey Horvath agreed with Bass, calling the order to clear out homeless camps “unconscionable.” The solution to homelessness is not “arrest,” she insisted. “It is not pushing people from community to community.”
Horvath also accused Newsom of setting a troubling precedent.
“The criminalization of homelessness and poverty is dangerous,” she said. “It does not work, and it will not stand in Los Angeles County.”
Newsom issued the executive order last month after the U.S. Supreme Court released a decision giving local officials more power to remove those illegally living on the streets and camping out in public parks.
Local governments are not legally obligated to follow Newsom’s order, but failure to do so could result in critical funds potentially being withheld.
“This executive order directs state agencies to move urgently to address dangerous encampments while supporting and assisting the individuals living in them—and provides guidance for cities and counties to do the same,” Newson said in a statement. “There are simply no more excuses. It’s time for everyone to do their part.”
Horvath warned Los Angeles officials would not tolerate a funding cut from Newsom’s government.
“I don’t think that threatening funding at a time where we’re trying to get more people served and more people housed is a place that anybody wants to be in,” she said.
California has the largest homeless population in the country, with more than 180,000 people in the state estimated to be living on the streets.
end
Trump just having some fun with this:
Kamala’s “Indian-Caucasian-Jamaican” Birth Certificate Resurfaces As Trump Triggers Race Debate
WEDNESDAY, JUL 31, 2024 – 05:48 PM
Update (1745ET): As expected, the left is now in histrionics after Donald Trump suggested that Kamala Devi Harris might not be black, after he was asked a loaded question by an ABC News journalist Rachel Scott in front of the National Association of Black Journalists.
To recap, Scott asked Trump if he thinks Harris is ‘only on the ticket because she is a black woman?’ to which Trump replied, accurately, that Harris hasidentified as an indian-American – which she openly campaigned on.
"I didn't know she was Black until a number of years ago, when she happened to turn Black."
— Donald Trump, when asked at the NABJ convention whether he thinks Kamala Harris is on the Democratic ticket only because she is a Black woman. pic.twitter.com/EP27jmE6rw
…her birth certificate showing her parents being “Indian-Caucasian” and “Jamaican” has begun to circulate.
Kamala Harris wants you to believe she is an African American woman… If so, then why does her birth certificate not list her as such? Her birth certificate identifies her mother as a CAUCASIAN BORN IN INDIA and her father as Jamaican. Share to make this go viral!
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171K Views
Kamala Harris wants you to believe she is an African American woman…
If so, then why does her birth certificate not list her as such?
Her birth certificate identifies her mother as a CAUCASIAN BORN IN INDIA and her father as Jamaican.
We assume the next chapter will be a vigorous debate over the blackness of Jamaicans, when the entire point is that Harris chose to campaign on being an Indian.
And of course…
Western Lensman
@WesternLensman
·
12h
Are they going to try to scrub this from the internet next?
Clips are going viral after Donald Trump sat down for an appearance before the National Association of Black Journalists – where he fielded extremely hostile questions from ABC News’ Rachel Scott, and got a rise out of the audience with several answers.
“I want to start by addressing the elephant in the room, sir. A lot of people did not think it was appropriate for you to be here today,” said Scott, who then launched into an attack:
“You attack Black journalists calling them ‘a loser,’ saying the questions that they asked our quote, ‘stupid and racist.’ You’ve had dinner with a white supremacist at Mar a Lago resort. So my question, sir, now that you were asking black supporters to vote for you, why should black voters trust you, after you have used language like that?” Scott continued.
To which Trump replied: “Well, first of all, I don’t think I’ve ever been asked the question, in such a horrible manner, first question. You don’t even say hello, how are you?”
“And I think it’s disgraceful that I came here in good spirit. I love the Black population of this country. I’ve done so much for the black population of this country, including employment including opportunity zones with Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina, which is one of the greatest programs ever for black workers and black entrepreneurs,” Trump continued, calling ABC News “a fake news network” – to which the audience could be heard cheering.
“I have been the best president for the Black population since Abraham Lincoln,” Trump continued to applause.
WATCH: President Trump FORCEFULLY answers hostile question about “the elephant in the room” at National Association of Black Journalists Convention in Chicago pic.twitter.com/kA7avWGoBZ
Trump then slammed Kamala Harris for allowing illegal immigrants to flood the country with illegal immigrants.
When asked “Do you believe Vice President Kamala Harris is only on the ticket because she is a black woman,” Trump replied that Harris identified as an indian American until several years ago, adding “I’m not sure if she’s indian or black.”
WATCH: President Trump hits Kamala Harris for record as “border czar” at National Association of Black Journalists Convention in Chicago pic.twitter.com/pggeLGMpU9
Trump then discussed political lawfare against him – once again slamming ABC for a lack of coverage. When Scott then said she wanted to move on because she had ‘limited time,’ Trump said “you’re the one who held me up for 35 minutes.”
“Excuse me, you’re the one who held me up for 35 minutes.”
— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) July 31, 2024
When asked about running mate JD Vance’s comments about ‘childless cat ladies,’ Trump suggested that Vance is a big fan of families.
WATCH: President Trump refuses to take the bait, defends running mate JD Vance at National Association of Black Journalists Convention in Chicago pic.twitter.com/QtWtECSBu2
We can’t help but wonder how Kamala Harris would do in a similarly contentious interview.
end
Insanity
“This Is Unjust!” Female Boxer Quits Olympic Match, Melts Down In Tears After ‘Biological Male’ Brutalizes Her In 46 Seconds
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 08:45 AM
Feminists are once again silent after a female boxer was destroyed in 46 seconds by a ‘biological male’ in an Olympic matchup.
After just 46 seconds and two massive shots to the head, Italy’s Angela Carini threw her helmet onto the mat and abandoned the bout against Algerian boxer Imane Khelif, shouting “This is unjust!”
The 25-year-old Carini, and Italian police officer, refused to shake hands with Khelif– who was previously banned from competition by the International Boxing Association after failing tests to establish gender qualification.
After the Olympic match was stopped, the referee raised Khelif’s hand in the air, while a visibly furious Carini yanked her hand away from the official and stormed off, the Daily Mail reports. She then dropped to her knees and burst into tears, saying she had never felt such strong blows in a match.
“I’m used to suffering. I’ve never taken a punch like that, it’s impossible to continue. I’m nobody to say it’s illegal,” she said after the match.
“I got into the ring to fight. But I didn’t feel like it anymore after the first minute. I started to feel a strong pain in my nose. I didn’t give up, but a punch hurt too much and so I said enough. I’m leaving with my head held high.”
Following the match, Carini spoke with the press where she was clearly distraught.
She said she did not walk away from the fight as a protest against her opponent’s inclusion, but that was a decision for the Olympics to consider.
She was taken away for medical assessment to examine the seriousness of her facial injuries which included a bruised nose.
Carini’s coach in the mix zone after the fight said: ‘I don’t know if her nose is broken. I have to speak with the girl. But many people in Italy tried to call and tell her: ‘Don’t go please: it’s a man, it’s dangerous for you.’ -Daily Mail
On Wednesday evening, the IBA – which banned Khelif – said that the transgender boxer had initially appealed their decision to the Court of Arbitration for Sport, but “but withdrew the appeal during the process, making the IBA decision legally binding.”
The IBA also directly criticized the IOC, saying “The IOC’s differing regulations on these matters, in which IBA is not involved, raise serious questions about both competitive fairness and athletes’ safety,” however the IOC position is that Khelif, and Chinese transgender athlete Lin Tu-ting of Taipei, “are women according to their passports,” who had qualified under the rules of elligibility.
XY Chromosomes?
There has been some controversy over whether Khelif was actually born a male or a female – with some claiming ‘she’ has hyperandrogenism, a condition which features higher-than-usual levels of androgens (male hormones), however earlier this year IBA president Umar Kremlev told Russian news agency TASS that the boxer had “XY [male] chromosomes.“
“I repeat that all the competitors comply with the eligibility rules,” said IOC spox Mark Adams. “But what I would say is that this involves real people. And, by the way, this is not a transgender issue. I should make this absolutely clear.”
Now, the IOC faces a harsh backlash – including UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, who wrote on X: ” When will this madness stop? Men cannot become women. Why is the British Government not objecting to this?”
JK Rowling also chimed in, writing on X: “What will it take to end this insanity? A female boxer left with life-altering injuries? A female boxer killed?“
And remember…
After 46 seconds and a few hits to the face by a male, Carini forfeited the fight.
Call me crazy, but It's almost as if women don't want to be punched in the face by a male as the world watches and applauds.
Euro zone inflation rises to 2.6% in July, above expectations (2.5%) Core inflation, which excludes more volatile energy, food, alcohol and tobacco prices, hit 2.9% in July, which was higher than expected. (2.8%) The widely watched services inflation print came in at 4% for July, easing slightly from the 4.1% reading of June… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/31/euro-zone-inflation-july-2024.html
The Bank of Japan unexpectedly raised interest rates by 15bps to 0.25% and said it would institute a quantitative tightening that would reduce monthly bond buying to ¥3 trillion ($19.6B), from the current ¥6 trillion by January-March 2026.
ESUs traded moderately lower during the first 75 minutes of Nikkei trading. They then commenced a methodical Fed Day rally that took ESUs to 5568.00 at 11:30 ET. ESUs then fell to 5548.75 at 13:44 ET. ESUs then began to rally for the FOMC Communiqué release and Powell’s Presser.
As expected, the Fed did NOT change rates. However, the FOMC Communique was a tad hawkish; the market expected an unequivocally dovish communiqué with an implicit guaranteed rate cut in September.
FOMC Communiqué HighlightsThe Fed doesn’t expect to cut rates “until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.”Price pressures remain “somewhat” elevated“The committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.”Employment growth has “moderated” and the jobless rate “has moved up but remains low.”https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm
It was up to Powell to save stocks with dovish remarks like he did on the June 12 Fed Day. Of course, Jerome delivered for bulls.
Powell Press Conference Highlights“We have made no decisions about future meetings, including September.”“If conditions are met, a reduction in the rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting.”“If we see inflation moving down, growth remains strong, and employment is good, then September rate cut could be appropriate.”“We didn’t do an SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) at this meeting, but I can imagine scenarios of zero cuts or several cuts depending on how the economy performs.”“Inflation is probably further from its target than employment is, but the downside risks to employment are real now.”We had a nice conversation today about rate cuts.“We get a lot of data between now and September, and we’ll assess the totality of it, not just the labor report.”Unemployment has risen 0.7, but the totality of data suggests a normalizing labor market.“The time is approaching for a rate cut.”“We are a non-political agency.” Gold, stocks, bonds, and Fangs soared during Powell’s remarks. Nvidia jumped as much as 13.5%!
ESUs hit a daily high of 5688.50 at 14:51 ET. Alas, too many traders were too long for Fed Day and Powel. ESUs sank to 5549.50 near 15:30 ET. The late manipulation conflated with July performance gaming to pushed ESUs to 5573.25 at 15:44 ET. Sellers appeared; ESUs fell 12 handles by 16:00 ET.
Chicago PMI fell to 45.3 in July from 47.4 in June; 44.3 was consensus
The Employment Cost Index for Q2 rose 0.9% m/m & 4.1% y/y; 1.0% m/m & 4.3% y/y expected.
Among private employers, 12-month compensation gains slowed to 3.9% from 4.1%.
After the close, META reported 5.16 EPS and $39.07B Rev.; 4.73 and $38.31B were consensus. Meta sees Q3 Rev of $38.5B to $41B, $39.16B expected. Meta rallied over 6% in after-hour trading.
US Summer Gasoline Usage Off to Stronger-Than-Expected Start – BBG The amount of finished motor gasoline supplied — a proxy for demand — jumped to 9.396 million barrels a day, according to monthly estimates from the US Energy Information Administration. That’s the highest since August 2019, the summer before the Covid pandemic lockdowns.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rallied early on Fed Day buying AI-related stocks, ex-MSFT, soared because AMD’s CEO said the outlook for AI is great (No joke!) USUs were +1 14/32 at 16:30 ET; weak July ADP Employment Change (122k, 154k exp.) contributed
Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline & oil (+4.98%) soared; EIA inventories fell (-3.7m & -3.4mm respectively) to a 6-month low. AMD soared early on AI BS but tumbled 10 points from its high by noon ET. Gold soared on Powell’s dovish remarks ESUs and equities fell sharply during the final hour of NYSE trading; S&P lost 30 handles
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will stocks blow off on Amazon and Apple results?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5551.51; 5493.75
@IsraelRadar_com: Missile that killed Hamas chief in Tehran was launched from nearby building, @AmichaiStein1 reports citing Sky News. Lots of mixed reporting today on strike method. Whoever carried out the operation (as well as Iran itself) may wish to keep that info private.
@DonKlericuzio: Mossad have again successfully assassinated Hajj Habib Zadeh, a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard today in Syria. (Israel going Michael Corleone?)
@davereaboi: Yesterday, Israel sent an excellent signal to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi—unlike the Americans, we’re good allies because we have balls and the ability to strike our common enemies with precision and lethality. This is the only legitimate basis for peace, and always has been.
@sentdefender: The Supreme-Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei has ordered the Iranian Armed Forces to launch a Direct Strike against Israel, as Retaliation for last night’s Assassination of Hamas Chief Political Leader, Ismail Haniyeh in the City of Tehran.
@kylenabecker: JUST IN: Secret Service instructed the local counter-sniper team to set up at “ground level looking into the crowd” but NOT at an elevated position above the AGR building rooftop where Crooks tried to assassination Trump. This is extremely sus. https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1818674648667566505
Trump posted on Truth Social that seniors should not pay tax on Social Security.
Today – Apple reports results, which means the Fangs’ results rally window closes. Powell, once again, went dovish after a non-dovish FOMC Communique. There is no doubt that Powell regularly tries to inflate financial assets and is not concerned about moral hazard.
Due to Powell, expected start-of-September purchases, and the looming AMZN and APPL results, the usual suspects will aggressively buy stuff, probably into the close, barring leaks of bad results.
NQUs are +60.50; ESUs are +15.25; and USUs are +2/32 at 20:41 ET.
Expected economic data: Q2 Nonfarm Productivity 1.7%, Unit Labor Costs 1.9%; Initial Jobless Claims 236k, Continuing Claims 1.855m; June Construction Spending 0.2% m/m; July ISM Mfg. 48.8, July Wards Total Vehicle Sales 16.2m
Expected earnings: CI 6.42, COP 1.97, K .90, PRU 3.44, CLX 1.55, INTC .10, AMZN 1.03, APPL 1.35
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5432; 100-day MA: 5288; 150-day MA: 5154; 200-day MA: 4975 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,385; 100-day MA: 39,070; 150-day MA: 38,757; 200-day MA: 37,741 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5399.22 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5379.87 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5617.45 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5500.18 triggers a buy signal
@realDailyWire: TRUMP: “This was a coup … They took the presidency away like he was a child.” (DJT bating Joe, Jill, & Hunter so that they turned on Harris, Obama, et al? Next DJT should chide Joe for being a fake tough guy that took the coup meekly.) https://x.com/realDailyWire/status/1818678667477737823
Donald Trump calls Kamala Harris a ‘weird person’ and slams her over the pronouns she uses https://trib.al/3fNIAom
The Dems’ ‘the GOP has weird people’ scheme ended quickly because GOP types filled social media with Dems that are beyond weird by pre-Obama social standards.
@ByronYork: Harris is now arguing that she is much, much tougher on border security than Trump. ‘Trump is talking a big game about securing our border, but he does not walk the walk,’ she says. One interesting fact: Trump has already been president. You can compare the Trump/Biden records.
Democrats vs. the Man Who Could Get to the Bottom of the Trump Shooting The Trump-appointed inspector general for the Department of Homeland Security has already opened two investigations into the U.S. Secret Service, which is under the purview of the DHS, related to the agency’s handling of the July 13 shooting. But some Republicans are concerned because, they say, Cuffari has been stonewalled by Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas on other internal examinations – including one that might have revealed Secret Service lapses that might have prevented the attempt on Trump’s life. Specifically, congressional sources tell RCI that Cuffari’s report, “USSS Preparation for and Response to the Events of January 6, 2021,” has been on Mayorkas’ desk since at least April… unanswered questions remain as to why the Secret Service allowed Trump to take the stage at The Ellipse outside the White House around noon on Jan. 6 amid reports of individuals with weapons in the vicinity – a question many Americans have about the July 13 assassination attempt… In addition, no one has explained how the Secret Service failed to notice an alleged pipe bomb found outside the Democrat National Committee DC office on Jan. 6 – while then Vice President-elect Harris was inside the building. Previous reporting by RCI shows multiple law enforcement officers, including one with a bomb-sniffing dog, walking past the bench where the device was found… Top Democrats have long sought to remove Cuffari – a former investigator for the Air Force and Department of Justice whom Trump appointed in 2019 in 2019 – from office. The coordinated effort began when the IG notified Congress that a trove of Secret Service texts from January 5 and 6, 2021 had been deleted in late January 2021 under the Biden administration. The purge occurred weeks after every federal agency received a directive from Congress to preserve all evidence related to January 6. Cuffari said messages belonging to at least 24 Secret Service officials including then director Murray and Cheatle, who was an assistant director of the agency on January 6, were gone. So, too, were the texts of then acting Homeland Security Secretary Wolf and acting deputy secretary Ken Cuccinelli, both Trump appointees. His office subsequently opened a criminal investigation into the matter… https://realclearwire.com/articles/2024/07/30/democrats_vs_the_man_who_could_get_to_the_bottom_of_the_trump_shooting_1047928.html
@Williamjkelly:Former President Donald Trump is set to do a Q&A at the National Association of Black Journalists Convention in Chicago today and the political left is already having a hissy fit. Washington Post columnist Karen Attiah, the co-chair of the National Association of Black Journalists Convention, has just stepped down due to the invite to Trump. Nikole Hannah-Jones, author of The New York Times’ 1619 Project, says Trump is “not a regular candidate and we must not treat him as such.” TRiiBE author Tyler Davis says that, “Donald Trump will attend a convention of journalists [who] he’s referred to as the enemy of the people. Donald Trump will talk to a room full of Black folks after he celebrated the elimination of affirmative action.” And Chicago Mayor Johnson says the City will protect Trump even though Johnson has also said Trump is a threat to Democracy and wants to bring back the Confederacy – which for some reason is not inciting hate. Huh? As a native of Chicago’s South Side, I’ve seen this kind of hate mongering and divisive talk many times before. I was a kid taking the “L” downtown when a preacher called me the “white devil.” I was sure he wasn’t talking to me because I went to a Catholic school – but he was. The rest of the people there weren’t buying it and just looked at me with sympathy.
@greg_price11: Trump: “I’ve known [Kamala] a long time indirectly. She was always of Indian heritage and she was only promoting Indian heritage. I didn’t know she was black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn black. I respect either one.” https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1818715934086832502
@junogsp7: Kamala Harris fact checked by Uncensored AI as Indian American both when sworn in as DA in 2003, and as Senator in 2017. She also was featured in campaign commercials as Indian American when running for President in 2019… “Her mother is listed as “Caucasian” and her father as “Jamaican” on her birth certificate. The words “black” or “African” do not appear anywhere on her birth certificate.”… https://x.com/junogsp7/status/1818766117122507003
GOP Sen. @BasedMikeLee: We don’t yet know what’s happening in the background (shooter running on roof) of this video, taken moments before the attempted assassination of Donald Trump. But every new piece of information seems to make the Secret Service’s inaction even more baffling and inexcusable. Why didn’t the Secret Service remove Trump from the stage immediately after this NPC was seen scurrying across an adjacent rooftop?… https://x.com/BasedMikeLee/status/1818731521986924793
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