GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $9.55 TO $2427.15
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0,01 TO $28.28
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2436.20
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $28.50
right after London’s afternoon gold fix, the crooks used a massive amount of hypothecated paper gold (sold short) to drive gold’s price from $2474 down to $2415 where the good guys were waiting to pick up cheap gold.
Bitcoin morning price:$64,782 UP 1381 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $62,914 down 557
dollars//
Platinum price closing DOWN $4.75 TO $959.25
Palladium price; DOWN $12.70 TO $891.55
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 0 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//august to august
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3378.31 DOWN 12.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,390.26 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//AUG 1 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1,902.35 DOWN 16.41 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,232,96 DOWN 34.45 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.264.61 EUROS PER OZ//AUGUST 1 //.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,435.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/01/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 08/05/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DB AG 4470
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 177
152 C DORMAN TRADING 25
190 H BMO CAPITAL 1348
323 C HSBC 204
323 H HSBC 1188
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 9
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 2
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 360
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 11
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 133
661 C JP MORGAN 2230
661 H JP MORGAN 1233
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4
690 C ABN AMRO 6
709 C BARCLAYS 245
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 2 11
737 C ADVANTAGE 4 23
880 H CITIGROUP 276
905 C ADM 2
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 08/01/2024 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 08/01/2024
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 21:33:48
TOTAL: 5,982 5,982
JPMorgan stopped 3463/5982
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 5982 NOTICES FOR 598,200 OZ or 18.606 TONNES
total notices so far: 16,455 contracts for 1,645,500 Oz (51.182 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 30,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 428 for 2.140 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.01 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV//
// INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 460.961 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 988 CONTRACTS TO 152,276 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0.46 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING ON SILVER. OUR HUGE LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANIED OUR HUMONGOUS NET GAIN OF 1638 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS THE MASSIVE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ACCOUNTS FOR THE EXTREME OI GAIN SIMILAR TO THE COMEX GOLD TRADING (DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE). WE, AGAIN HAD MAJOR SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS THE MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MENTIONED ABOVE. WE HAD A HUGE 650 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 611 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE DEMAND FOR SILVER WAS JUST TOO GREAT FOR OUR BANKERS TO CONTAIN AND THUS THE STEEP RISE IN OI DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 611 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.46) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 1638 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A 650 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 3.040 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 3.040 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 611 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL removed 60 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAYS, total 1500 contracts: OR 7.5000 MILLION OZ (750 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 7.5 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 7.50 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 988 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 650 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.005 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 3.040 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1638 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 611 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE MAJOR PORTION OF THE HIGH COMEX OI GAIN DESPITE THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE//// MAJOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (611) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 30,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8125 OI CONTRACTS TO 512,329 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HGE 5150 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (8125 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $9.15 IN PRICE/THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4700 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE GUYS TOOK IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF GOLD IN LONDON.
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 65.378 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.15 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 11,024 OI CONTRACTS (34.29 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2899 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 512,329
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,024 CONTRACTS WITH 8125 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 2899 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,024 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG 2955 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2899 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 8125 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,024 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4700 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE BOYS NEEDED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL GOLD ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO: /AUGUST 65.378 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) GOOD ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2955 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 4152 CONTRACTS OF 415,200 OZ OR 12.914 TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 2076 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 12.914 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 12.914 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.360% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 12.914 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 988 CONTRACTS OI TO 152,276 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 650 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 850 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 988 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1638 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.190 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE $.46 LOSS IN PRICE
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.05 PTS OR 0.92% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 359.45 PTS OR 2.08% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2216.67 OR 5.81%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 2.08%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,2058 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2072/ Oil DOWN TO 76,24 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 79.,35 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 8,125 CONTRACTS TO 512,329 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.15 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST A HUGE NUMBER OF SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS PANICKED AND COVERED AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES.
OUR LONDONERS BOUGHT MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AND THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY T PLUS ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURSDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A GOOD SIZED 2899 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : AUGUST 1753 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2899 CONTRACTS.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 11,024 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2899 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8125 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUMONGOUS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR RISE IN PRICE OF $9.15/THURSDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT A GOOD SIZED 2899 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (65.378 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 65.378 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $9.15 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THURSDAY NIGHT
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 34.29 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4700 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING: 65.378 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.524 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.15
WE HAVE REMOVED 5150 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,024 CONTRACTS OR 1,102,400 OZ (34.29
TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 239,230 contracts//fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
AUGUST 2 AUGUST GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE AUG 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 64.302 OZ brinks 2 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 5982 notice(s) 598,200 OZ 18.606 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 4564 contracts 456,400 OZ 14.19 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 16,455 notices 1,645,500 oz 51.182 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 1
i)out of Brinks: 64.302 oz
2 kilobars
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 64.302 oz
adjustments 3
1)Adjustment dealer to customer; Asahi 31,323.028 oz
ii) adjustment dealer to customer: Brinks 27,682.011 oz
iii) adjustment customer to dealer HSBC 118,751.658 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 10,546 contracts having LOST 1296 contracts.
We had 1249 contracts served on Thursday, so we lost 47 contracts or 4700 oz was ferried over to London via the exchange for physical route to take immediate delivery over in London.
SEPT. GAINED 128 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5362 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER LOST 204 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 54,958 CONTRACTS
We had 5982 contracts filed for today representing 528,200 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5982 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3463 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (16,455) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of August 10,546( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (5982 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,101,900 OZ OR 65.378 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (16,455 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (10,546 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (5982) x 100 oz which equals 2,101,900 oz (65.378 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.378 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,661,466.962 oz 51.67 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,868,105.099 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,214,323.287 ( 255.49 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,653,782.712 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,552857 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 203.82 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 2/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE AUG 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 554,,146.100 OZ oz Asahi . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,133,361.400 oz JPM Manfra |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 6 CONTRACT(S) (30,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 180 contracts (0.900 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 428 Contracts (2.140 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits:
i) into JPMorgan:554,146.100 oz
ii) Into Manfra 579,215.310 oz
total customer deposit 1,133,361.400 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134,771million oz/302.727million or 44.59%
adjustment:0;
customer withdrawals: 1
i) Out of DELAWARE 554,146.100 oz
total withdrawal: 554,146.100 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.019 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 302.723 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 186 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 9 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 3 NOTICES SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE LOST 6 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 30,000 OZ WILL NOT STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX AS THEY WERE EFP’d OVER TO LONDON WHERE THEY WILL TAKE IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER THERE. SEEMS THAT GOLD AND SILVER ARE SCARCE OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 1072 CONTRACTS TO 103,135. SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 35 CONTRACT AND THUS WE HAVE 36 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for 30,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 85,751 very good
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 428 x 5,000 oz = 2.140 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 186) and the number of notices served upon today 6 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month: 428 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (186)x number of notices served upon today minus (6)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.040 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 3.040 million oz.
There are 70.019 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 845.47 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ
JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 460.961 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
JIM WILLIE
Willie on silver
https://youtu.be/4yumZ1liuhw?si=38-jEpsHLOIsyLDu
end
ALASDAIR MACLEOD…
When prices rise overnight, or they rise into London’s morning fix we know that China and possibly India are buying again.
| ALASDAIR MACLEODAUG 2 |
This week has been a tale of diversity, with gold close to challenging new high ground, but silver lagging, evident in our headline chart. In European trade this morning, gold was $2466, up $80 from last Friday’s close, and Silver at $28.93 was up 95 cents. Looking at the relationship between price and open interest, their performance on Comex has been different as well:
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Note how gold’s Open Interest has declined remarkably while the price has held close to all-time highs. This indicates impressive underlying strength. The relationship in silver is more normal, with both the price and OI trending in the same direction. In both cases, speculator interest appears average, as opposed to excessive, indicating that there is room for buyer demand to drive prices higher before a consolidation is due. In the case of gold, this would be into new highs over $2500 spot (the active Comex contract is at $2507 already), and silver should have significant catch-up potential indicated by a gold/silver ratio at 85:
The chart doesn’t tell us much other than to remind us just how far from being valued as money silver has become. In these times of growing credit risk, physical silver looks badly out of kilter, and the relationship should already be reflecting its return to a role as the poor man’s gold.
Overnight demand for gold has been in evidence this week, draining already diminished western gold liquidity. We see this when prices rise overnight and when they firm up ahead of London’s morning fix. It should be noted that some of this demand is speculative, with aggressive positions being adopted in Shanghai futures. That has the potential to create some volatility, but clearly the gold price is being set not in London or Comex but in Shanghai.
It is Chinese, and also Indian demand through Dubai to which we must pay attention. Interestingly, when India recently cut the tax on imported gold to 5%, the price discount in Mumbai was replaced with a small premium.
There are also tectonic plates shifting in the background. There is more evidence that global equities have entered a bear market, and we could see further substantial falls in the coming weeks. At the same time, US Treasury yields have declined sharply, partly due to growing confidence that the Fed funds rate will be reduced in September. Additionally, poor earnings from top tech stocks and growing evidence of a faltering US economy are reducing the valuation gap between bonds and equities, indicated by the double-headed arrow in the chart below.
This is probably the most excessive relative overvaluation of equities in US financial history, certainly in the last forty years, even greater than during the dot-com bubble, following which the S&P halved.
In the past, such as in 2008—2009 gold was initially seen as a source of funds in an equity market crisis. But physical gold has already gone to China, with ETF holdings having been sold down over the last three years. This time, bitcoin and other cryptos appear to be a likely source of funds if markets crash.
And finally, we cannot ignore developments in the Middle East. Israel assassinating a Hamas leader in Tehran and increasing attacks from Hezbollah are major escalations’. A deteriorating situation seems likely to flare up into a full-scale war. It could be the only way an increasingly desperate Israel can persuade America and NATO to back her against Iran.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Robert Lambourne’s figures are very accurate: he confirms that the BIS increased its gold swaps by 7 tonnes to 116 tonnes. There is only one central bank that is engaged in this: THE FED or its trading arm: THE FRBNY.
(Robert Lambourne/GATA)
BIS annual report again confirms GATA’s accuracy with bank’s gold swaps
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-08-01 15:11 Section: Daily Dispatches
3:08p ET Thursday, August 1, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GATA consultant Robert Lambourne today provides below his monthly report on the gold swaps maintained by the central bank of the central banks, the Bank for International Settlements, and superficially the report may seem ordinary, disclosing a small increase in BIS gold swaps from May to June, 7 tonnes, from 109 to 116.
Lambourne is too modest to highlight the most important development with the BIS’ accounts. That is, the bank’s annual report, dated March 31 —
— has again confirmed the accuracy of his calculations of the bank’s gold swaps, which constitute the bank’s intervention in the gold market on behalf of member central banks. The BIS gives a gold swaps total only once a year, in its annual report, even as Lambourne strives to calculate the monthly changes. At the bottom of Page 194 this year’s annual report shows 72 tonnes of gold swaps as of March 31, and Lambourne had estimated 71.
The BIS’ constant trading in gold swaps is perhaps the best proof that surreptitious gold market manipulation by at least one central bank continues as a matter of policy. Maybe that’s why no mainstream financial news organizations report about the swaps, or, indeed, about anything the BIS does. Only GATA’s Lambourne does.
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
———
BIS gold swaps rose from 109 to 116 tonnes in June
By Robert Lambourne
Thursday, August 1, 2024
The June statement of account for the Bank for International Settlements has recently been published:
From this it is possible to estimate the volume of gold swaps undertaken by the BIS at the month end. The estimated swap volume is 116 tonnes at June 30. This compares to an estimate of 109 tonnes for May 31, for an increase of seven tonnes.
Table 1 below sets out the historical level of monthly gold swaps estimated since August 2018. As is evident from Table 1 there is still a considerable level of gold being traded via these swaps. The level of gold swaps is down significantly from the 501 tonnes estimated in January 2022 but seemingly remains quite volatile, suggesting their use to cover shorter term trading requirements.
To repeat the point made in these GATA reports, it seems that these swaps are undertaken by the BIS for one or more of its central bank members with the swapped gold being accounted for as being held in a BIS-registered sight account at a central bank. Given what is happening in the gold market generally, it appears reasonable to assume that the U.S. Federal Reserve is the BIS customer for these gold swap transactions.
The evidence strongly suggests that the source of this gold is bullion banks and the likelihood is that the metal comes from gold registered as being held by gold exchange-traded funds.
A more detailed report on the use of gold swaps was published to cover transactions in December 2023: It covers some of the history in more detail:
https://www.gata.org/node/23016
The recently published 2023-24 BIS annual report —
— supports GATA’s estimate of gold swaps as of March 31 as shown in Table 1. The BIS said it had undertaken 72 tonnes in gold swaps. GATA’s original estimate was 71 tonnes.
The BIS Annual Report contains information that also confirms certain assumptions used to estimate the swap volumes. This includes confirmation that the BIS continues to hold 102 tonnes of its own gold. The annual report also provides strong support, via its reporting on transactions with related parties, that the source of the swapped gold is bullion banks rather than central banks.
However, the BIS continues to offer no explanation for why it is still undertaking gold swaps. The GATA report from December 2023 cited above offers some comments on possible reasons and historical comments made by the BIS when it first reported gold swaps being made, in its annual report for 2009-10.
Table 1 — Gold swaps estimated by GATA
from BIS monthly statements of account
Month ….. Swaps
& year … in tonnes
June-24 …. /116
May-24 …. /109
Apr-24 … /78
Mar-24 …. /72
Feb-24 …. /68
Jan-24 …. /117
Dec-23 … /121
Nov-23 …./100
Oct-23 …./68
Sep-23 …./96
Aug-23 …./129
Jul-23 …. /103
Jun-23…. /87
May-23 …. /188
Apr-23 …. /135
Mar-23 …. /77*
Feb-23 … /136
Jan-23 … /103
Dec-22 … /0
Nov-22 … /105
Oct-22 ….. /7
Sep-22 …../57
Aug -22 ….. /75
Jul-22 ….. /56
Jun-22 ….. /202
May-22 ….. /270
Apr-22 ….. /315
Mar-22 …. /358
Feb-22 …. /472
Jan-22 ….. /501
Dec-21…. /414
Nov-21…. /451
Oct-21…. /414
Sep-21 …. /438
Aug-21 …. /464
Jul-21 …. /502
Jun-21 …./471
May-21 …./517
Apr-21 …. /472
Mar-21…. /490±
Feb-21 …../552
Jan-21 …. /523
Dec-20 …. /545
Nov-20 …. /520
Oct-20 …. /519
Sep-20…../ 520
Aug-20…../ 484
Jul-20 ….. / 474
Jun-20 …. / 391
May-20 …. / 412
Apr-20 …. / 328
Mar-20 …. / 326**
Feb-20 …. / 326
Jan-20 …. / 320
Dec-19 …. / 313
Nov-19 …. / 250
Oct-19 …. / 186
Sep-19 …. / 128
Aug-19 …. / 162
Jul-19 ….. / 95
Jun-19 …. / 126
May-19 …. / 78
Apr-19 ….. / 88
Mar-19 …. / 175
Feb-19 …. / 303
Jan-19 …. / 247
Dec-18 …. / 275
Nov-18 …. / 308
Oct-18 …. / 372
Sep-18 …. / 238
Aug-18 …. / 370
* The estimate originally reported by GATA was 78 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 77 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
+ The estimate originally reported by GATA was 487 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 490 tonnes, It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
** The estimate originally reported by GATA was 332 tonnes, but the BIS annual report states 326 tonnes. It is believed that slightly different gold prices account for the difference.
GATA uses gold prices quoted by USAGold.com to estimate the level of gold swaps held by the BIS at month-ends.
—–
Robert Lambourne is a retired business executive in the United Kingdom who consults for GATA about the involvement of the Bank for International Settlements in the gold market and U.S. government debt.
* * *
Ronan Manly: Elections and political uncertainty help drive gold demand and price
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-08-01 23:22 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Thursday, August 1, 2024
This year is shaping up to be a perfect storm for political risk and uncertainty, given that in addition to the upcoming US presidential and Congress elections, we have already seen major shifts in the political landscapes of two other G7 countries, France, and the United Kingdom.
While often underappreciated, elections and changes in governments in major economies like the U.S., U.K., and France create political uncertainty that can have a significant impact on financial market stability, investor sentiment, and on macro factors such as interest rates, U.S. dollar strength, and geopolitical risk — all of which are key influences on the gold price.
This is because the run-up to elections leads to uncertainty about election outcomes and who will be in power, and the outcome of elections often leads to new parties and leaders assuming power who have different agendas to their predecessors. New governments and leaders assuming power with new agendas then usually implement different economic policies compared to their predecessors. This phenomenon is known as policy shift. …
… For the remainder of the analysis:
end
Bill to create U.S. bitcoin reserve would finance it with gold revaluation
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-07-31 09:12 Section: Daily Dispatches
U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to Be Funded Partly by Revaluing Fed’s Gold, Draft Bill Shows
By Bradley Keoun
CoinDesk, New York
Tuesday, July 30, 2024
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis’ plan for a new Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would finance purchases of the cryptocurrency partly by revaluing gold certificates held by the Federal Reserve System, according to a draft of the legislation obtained by CoinDesk.
Lummis, a Wyoming Republican known for her Bitcoin-friendly policy stance, announced her intention to propose the reserve on Saturday at the Bitcoin Nashville conference. She came onstage just minutes after former U.S. President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee in this year’s presidential race, delivered a speech on blockchain policy before the cheering room, filled to its 8,500-person capacity. …
… For the remainder of the report:
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 184 with Craig Hemke/Andrew Maguire
Weak hands Fed running out of time Feat.…
In this week’s episode of Live from the Vault, Andrew…
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.05 PTS OR 0.92% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 359.45 PTS OR 2.08% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 2216.67 OR 5.81%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 2.08%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,2058 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2072/ Oil DOWN TO 76,24 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 79.,35 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.2058
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2072
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.06 PTS OR 0.92 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 359.45 PTS OR 2.08%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 2216.67 PTS OR 5.81%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 103.86 EURO RISES TO 1.0833 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.946 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.99…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE END OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.2084/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.641 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.070%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.297
3j Gold at $2466.50//Silver at: 28.77 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 32/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.82
3m oil into the 76 dollar handle for WTI and 79 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.99/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.946 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8656as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9428 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.928 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.230 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.118 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.17…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.88 DOWN 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.077 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures, Global Stocks Tumble, Japan Crashes Amid Panic Fed Is Now Behind The Curve
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 08:03 AM
It is a global selling carnage this morning, as risk-off extends across worldwide equity markets but nowhere more so than Japan where the point (if not percentage point) drop in the Nikkei has surpassed Black Monday 1987.
As of 7:45am, S&P futures are down 1.2% as traders worried that the Federal Reserve has been too slow to cut interest rates, and technology earnings disappointed, pushing Nasdaq futures 1.7% lower as Amazon’s Q3 earnings forecast disappointed and Apple reported a surprise plunge in Chinese revenues. While Europe is a sea of red, it is nothing compared to what took place in Asia, where the Topix index crashed 6.1%, the biggest one-day selloff since 2016, as a result of the continued meltup in the yen after the BOJ’s idiotic rate hike – which took place just as Japan’s economy slumped back into contraction and inflation peaked – and given poor risk sentiment in the US. US rates are continuing their downside momentum with the OIS market now pricing in 88bp of rate cuts in 2024. A rally in Treasuries extended into a seventh straight day, with the two-year yield slumping to its lowest in 14 months. The dollar weakened. In FX, low yielding currencies are leading the rally against USD with CNH and JPY up 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, while higher beta currencies like MXN and NOK are both down 0.6%. Today we get the jobs report (exp. 175K) and the final Factory/Durable Orders report out of the US.
In premarket trading, Exxon Mobil jumped after it exceeded profit expectations after the $63 billion acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources Co. pushed oil and natural gas output to a record. Chevron shares slid in premarket trading after reporting earnings per share that missed the average analyst estimate. The company also said its headquarters would move to Texas from California. Amazon plunged 8% on concern costs are rising quickly to meet demand for AI services. Intel cratered more than 20% after giving a grim growth forecast and laying out plans to slash 15,000 jobs. Snap dropped 17% as revenue undershot estimates. Here are some other notable movers:
- Intel shares plunge 22% after the chipmaker’s forecast for third-quarter revenue undershot the average analyst estimate. In a string of startling announcements, the company said it would slash 15,000 jobs and suspended its dividend starting in the fourth quarter.
- Snap shares plunge 18% after the social media company’s revenue undershot estimates and its third-quarter outlook also disappointed amid weakness in brand spending. The update prompted brokers to cut their price targets on the stock, citing the volatile nature of Snap’s business.
- Ardelyx shares rise 8.5% Friday after the company reported total revenue for the second quarter that beat the average analyst estimate.
- Block shares gain 3% in premarket trading on Friday after the payments company boosted its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year, beating the average analyst estimate.
- Coinbase shares advance 0.13% after the cryptocurrency trading platform reported second-quarter revenue that beat estimates. Jefferies highlighted the strength in subscription and services revenue, while Canaccord Genuity said Coinbase’s performance underscored the company’s diversifying revenue base.
- Cloudflare shares gain 9% after the cybersecurity company’s earnings and outlook surpassed analyst expectations, prompting price target hikes as brokers pointed to a strong performance and execution in a difficult environment. Some analysts also noted that the company is benefiting from Generative AI.
- Lexicon Pharma shares fall 15% after the company reported a second-quarter loss of 17c per share.
- Microchip Technology drops 6.7% as BofA downgrades the chipmaker to neutral from buy following its results, based on limited catalysts for a short-term recovery. The company also receives a number of price-target cuts from other brokers.
- Twilio shares are up 5.7% after the infrastructure-software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and gave an outlook that is seen as positive.
The next big data point for the market is Friday’s monthly jobs report, which is expected to show that US employers added workers at a slower pace last month (see our preview here). Forecasters anticipate the monthly US jobs numbers will show moderating job and wage growth in July, underscoring a further softening in the labor market. Payrolls probably rose by 175,000 last month following June’s 206,000 increase, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
While Fed Chair Jerome Powell has signaled that rates are likely to be lowered in September, some investors have argued they should move faster to prevent a deeper economic slowdown. Indeed, amid the rout, jumpy markets now see the Fed delivering three consecutive quarter-point cuts in September, November and December — and are pricing a roughly 50% chance that one of those reductions will be 50 basis points. The policy-sensitive two-year yield slumped to its lowest in 14 months, while rates on the benchmark 10-year security held below 4% after falling to that level on Thursday for the first time since February.
“The data is really starting to show signs of concern and that is what’s coming back to bite the Fed,” said Daniela Hathorn, a senior market analyst at Capital.com. “They kept signaling they’d wait for the data, and that was fine until Wednesday, but yesterday’s data has investors fearing whether it waited for too long.”
Risk assets have taken a beating in recent sessions for other reasons too. Lackluster earnings from Microsoft Corp. to Amazon.com Inc. have hurt sentiment that is also being weighed down by concern about the sluggish Chinese economy and a weakening of the earlier euphoria over artificial intelligence. Middle East tensions have also multiplied after the assassination of Hamas’ political chief in Tehran.
It’s all added up to a volatile week for markets, with the VIX Index on track for the highest closing level in nine months. The Nasdaq 100 recorded swings of at least 1.4% over the past three days. A gauge for the Magnificent Seven big tech companies was up 0.3% for the week through Thursday.
The sharp recalibration in expectations for US rates came after the Fed held rates again this week. While Chair Jerome Powell signaled that central bank officials are on course to pare rates at their next meeting, economic reports on Thursday showed rising jobless claims and weaker manufacturing, spooking investors. Ahead of the Fed meeting, former New York Fed President William Dudley and Mohamed El-Erian warned that the Fed risks making a mistake by holding rates too high for too long and are once again behind the curve. That narrative has started to take hold in the past 24 hours. But bond market exuberance means that if Friday’s employment report shows signs of unexpected strength, there’s a risk some traders will dump bullish wagers en masse. According to Bloomberg, a $12 million wager has emerged in options linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate, which closely tracks Fed policy expectations, targeting some 225 basis points of easing by the middle of 2025. Even with the recent explosion of bets, the market is pricing in about 160 basis points by then.
“In coming days there may be even a discussion about whether the Fed will have to cut by 50 basis points at the next meeting in order to catch up with the loss of momentum in the economy,” Gary Dugan, chief executive officer of the Global CIO Office, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. “From the peak a 10%-to-15% correction wouldn’t be strange in this huge change in shift in sentiment in the markets as central banks look well behind the curve.”
The shift in pricing “reflects investors’ growing concern that the FOMC might need to cut rates more quickly than the 25-basis-point quarterly cadence as economic headwinds continue to mount,” said Ian Lyngen, head of US rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets. Powell repeated on Wednesday that the Fed is data dependent when deciding when to lower interest rates, and emphasized that policymakers are mindful of the risk to the the labor market of waiting too long.
“We suggest investors brace for renewed volatility, but avoid overreacting to short-term shifts in market sentiment,” said Mark Hafele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management.
European markets are all deep in the red, with the Stoxx 600 tumbling over 1% with technology and finance shares leading the declines. Among industry groups, utilities were the only category of stocks to rise. Europe’s semiconductor sector slumps, following an extended retreat among global tech stocks. Among chip-equipment stocks: ASML -5.2%, ASMI -7.9%, BE Semiconductor -6.5%, VAT Group -7.3%. Among chipmakers, Infineon -3.8%, STMicro -3.8%, Melexis -2.1%, Nordic Semiconductor -4.5%. Here are the other biggest movers:
- AXA shares gain as much as 2.7%, as the French insurer’s first-half profit beat estimates and the firm announced the sale of its asset management unit to BNP Paribas
- Engie gains as much as 4.4%, the most in a month, after the French energy company reported a strong 2024 guidance upgrade, according to Morgan Stanley
- IMCD rises as much as 9% after the Dutch chemicals provider’s first-half results were better than expected, according to KBC
- IAG shares rise as much as 6.4%, the most since March, after the British Airways-parent delivered a strong profit beat in the second quarter, helping soothe investors’ concerns after outlook downgrades from sector peers
- Ferragamo shares rise as much as 4.7% after the Italian luxury goods maker’s earnings beat estimates
But if Europe was bad, Asia was a disaster: here stocks crashed as sentiment was hit by a triple whammy of a selloff in Japanese equities, a global tech rout and signs of weakness in the US economy. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index plunged as much as 3.6%, the most since February 2021, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group and Samsung Electronics Co. among the biggest drags. Japan’s Topix Index entered a technical correction in its worst two-day rout since 2011, while benchmarks in the tech-heavy markets of South Korea and Taiwan fell about 4%. Traders took risk off the table amid signs the investment landscape is shifting. Japanese stocks are falling out of favor as the prospect of further interest-rate hikes by the country’s central bank supports the yen, hitting exporters’ shares. Meanwhile, disappointing earnings from US tech behemoths has cooled optimism over artificial intelligence, triggering a rout that has ensnared Asian chip giants
“The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen coupled with tech sector weakness is poised to significantly impact the Asian stock market,” said Manish Bhargava, a fund manager at Straits Investment Holdings in Singapore. “Given the substantial weight of tech stocks in Asian indices, disappointing results from tech giants could trigger a broader market downturn in Asian markets.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The euro and yen top the G-10 FX leaderboard, rising 0.3% a piece against the greenback. The offshore yuan climbs to the highest since May.
- GBP/USD fell 0.3% to $1.2707, with the pound headed for its biggest weekly drop since April, following the BOE’s decision to ease policy on Thursday
- USD/CHF fell 0.3% to 0.8706 and EUR/CHF was little changed around 0.94189, Swiss inflation held steady in July with a headline of 1.3% matching economist estimates
- USD/JPY fell as much as 0.5% to 148.63, with the yen on course for its biggest weekly gain since May after the BOJ’s interest-rate hike on Wednesday
In rates, a rally in Treasuries extended into a seventh straight day ahead of the US jobs report. US 10-year yields fall 3bps to 3.95% – the lowest since early February – ahead of June employment data investors are counting on to reinforce the case for aggressive Fed rate cuts this year. European bonds follow suit. Fed-dated OIS contracts price in around 32bp of easing for the next policy meeting in September, or roughly 32% odds that the central bank’s first move will be a half-point rate cut rather than 25bp.
In commodities oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.4% to $76.60 a barrel. Spot gold jumps $16 to around $2,462/oz.
Today’s economic data slate includes July employment report (8:30am) and June factory orders (10am). Scheduled Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (12pm) and Barkin (8:30pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.9% to 5,428.25
- STOXX Europe 600 down 1.4% to 504.81
- MXAP down 3.4% to 176.04
- MXAPJ down 2.4% to 554.23
- Nikkei down 5.8% to 35,909.70
- Topix down 6.1% to 2,537.60
- Hang Seng Index down 2.1% to 16,945.51
- Shanghai Composite down 0.9% to 2,905.34
- Sensex down 0.8% to 81,198.44
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 2.1% to 7,943.24
- Kospi down 3.7% to 2,676.19
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.22%
- Euro up 0.2% to $1.0812
- Brent Futures up 0.6% to $79.98/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,464.31
- US Dollar Index down 0.22% to 104.19
Top Overnight News
- Chevron plans to relocate its headquarters to Houston, Texas from San Ramon, California. The stock fell premarket after it missed profit estimates, adding to pressure on its efforts to acquire Hess. BBG
- China’s efforts to boost household spending are expected to help the economy hit the government’s 2024 growth target of roughly 5%, but the authorities may have to do more for consumers from next year or accept slower growth. Trade tensions and local government debt risks leave Beijing few alternatives to revving up consumer stimulus in coming years, but vague promises of “incremental measures” look likely to fall short, analysts say. RTRS
- An influential PBOC adviser delivered a rare critique of China’s economic policy for being overly conservative. Huang Yiping urged the government to ramp up fiscal stimulus and set a hard target for inflation. BBG
- Once seen as a cautious policy dove, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is now presenting himself as a determined hawk who’s not afraid to lift interest rates a few more times, even in the face of a weakening economy. RTRS
- The US has declared Venezuela opposition candidate Edmundo González the winner of the July 28 presidential election, describing the official results favouring President Nicolás Maduro as “deeply flawed”. Antony Blinken, US secretary of state, said on Thursday that “given the overwhelming evidence, it is clear to the United States and . . . to the Venezuelan people that Edmundo González Urrutia won the most votes” and congratulated him on his “successful campaign”. FT
- For today’s jobs print GIR is calling for: +165k NFP (+175k consensus, +206k prior), U/E Rate of 4.1% (4.1% consensus, 4.1% prior) and MoM AHE +.3% (+.3% consensus, +.3% prior). The playbook on how to trade stocks around economic data prints that we have been using for most of 2024 has officially flipped as evidenced by the stock market’s reaction to the weak ISM print yesterday. We are no longer in a bad data is good for stocks environment. The fed showed its hand. Cuts are happening. Stocks do NOT want growth scare convos resurfacing. Good econ data is now good for the stock market and vice versa.
- AMZN (-8% pre mkt) reported a small miss on total sales at +10%/$148B (vs. the Street $148.7B) but op. income outperformed expectations at $14.7B (vs. the Street $13.5B). The outlook for Q3 falls short of the consensus – the guidance mid-points for Q3 work out to $156.25B on sales (below the Street’s $158.4B forecast) and $13.25B on op. income (below the Street’s $15.6B forecast).
- AAPL (+1% pre mkt) reported FQ3 upside on both sales ($85.8B vs. the Street $84.4B) and EPS (1.40 vs. the Street 1.35). China fell short, with sales of $14.72B (vs. the Street $15.2B), but they outperformed in the Americas, Europe, and Asia ex-Japan/China. The FQ4 guide is a bit ahead of the Street – they see sales up 5% (vs. the Street +4.1%) and GMs of 46% (vs. the Street 45.9%). RTRS
- INTC (-22% pre mkt) reported a miss on Q2 EPS/revenue, the guidance is very weak (the Q3 sales guidance mid-point is $13B vs. the Street $14.3B), the company is slashing its headcount by 15%, and the dividend is being suspended. BBG
Earnings
- Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 1.40 (exp. 1.35), revenue 85.78bln (exp. 84.53bln), Products rev. USD 61.56bln (exp. 60.63bln), iPhone rev. USD 39.30bln (exp. 38.95bln), iPad revenue USD 7.16bln (exp. 6.63bln), Mac rev. USD 7.01bln (exp. 6.98bln), Wearables, home and accessories rev. USD 8.10bln (exp. 7.79bln), Service rev. USD 24.21bln (exp. 23.96bln), Greater China rev. USD 14.73bln (exp. 15.26bln). Shares -0.3% in the pre-market.
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 1.26 (exp. 1.03), rev. 148bln (exp. 148.56bln). Shares -8.3% in the pre-market.
- Intel Corp (INTC) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.02 (exp. 0.10), rev. 12.83bln (exp. 12.94bln). Shares -21% in the pre-market.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks suffered firm losses following the bloodbath and flight-to-quality stateside which was triggered by weak ISM Manufacturing data, while geopolitical concerns and mixed earnings added to the downbeat sentiment. ASX 200 declined amid the broad weakness and with firm losses seen across all sectors. Nikkei 225 fell beneath 37,000 for the first time since April, while the Topix index followed the benchmark into correction territory. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured which saw the former give up the 17,000 status and the mainland index also retreated, while there were bearish comments on trade from a Mofcom official who stressed the seriousness of difficulties and challenges in foreign trade. SK Hynix (000660 KS) was pressured by over 10% in APAC trade as chip stocks continued to sell off.
Top Asian news
- China MOFCOM official said the complexity of the foreign trade environment is rising and we should take into full account the seriousness of the difficulties and challenges in foreign trade, as well as noted that they will use many bilateral mechanisms to help enterprises actively respond to unreasonable trade restrictions.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they will analyse the impact of forex volatility on the economy and respond appropriately. Suzuki added that stock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditions and he is closely watching stock moves with a sense of urgency.
- Japanese Industry Minister Saito said economic fundamentals aren’t bad when asked about the sharp fall in the stock market, while he added that a strong movement is seen in investment and wage hikes are continuing.
- BoJ’s Uchida to hold a press conference following on from a local business leaders meeting in Hakodate on 7th August
- PBoC advisor reportedly said that China should ramp up fiscal stimulus to generate growth and set a firm inflation target, via Reuters citing remarks from advisor Yiping.
- Nintendo (7974 JT) Q1 (JPY) Net 80.9bln (exp. 79bln), Operating 54.5bln (exp. 83bln), Recurring Profit 113bln, -55.3%. Switch: Sold 2.1mln units (prev. 3.91mln Y/Y); maintains FY sales forecast of 13.5mln units (prev. 15.7mln)
European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%, with the ISM-induced downside continuing and being exacerbated by marked pressure in Intel post-earnings. As such, sectors are all in the red; Tech underperforms with heavyweight ASML opening lower by over 6% given INTC, Banking/Finance names hit on the pronounced downside in yields. Overall, the complex has a defensive configuration in-fitting with the broader risk tone. DAX 40, -1.2%, pressured with continued downside in Auto names and also its exposure to the tech-woes through Infineon. FTSE 100, -0.3%, is one of the better performers with large-cap defensive/energy names cushioning the downside, in addition to strength in IAG and GSK on Co. specifics. Stateside, futures are lower across the board, ES -1.0% & NQ -1.7%, NQ lagging given its tech-exposure with RTY -1.5% not far behind given the labour market concerns highlighted by ISM ahead of NFP; post-earnings, INTC -21%, AMZN -8.8% & AAPL -0.4%.
Top European news
- European Gas Set for Weekly Surge as Near-Term Risks Mount
- Swiss Stocks Are Worst in Europe as Trade Resumes After Holiday
- European Banks Slide as Growth Concerns Fan Rate-Cut Bets
- Engie Raises 2024 Profit Outlook on Strong Power Generation
- European Chip Stocks Slump on Nasdaq Rout, Intel Capex Cut
- Novo’s Supply Crunch, Germany’s Pain: EMEA Earnings Week Ahead
FX
- DXY pressured overall but with peers generally mixed-rangebound, index holding towards lows in a 104.10-42 range.
- EUR recouping from Thursday’s downside and is back on a 1.08 handle, EZ-specifics light with NFP likely to dictate.
- Cable continues to slip after the BoE cut on Thursday; 100- & 200-DMAs in focus just below the 1.27 mark at 1.2681 and 1.2647 respectively.
- JPY firmer, holding just below the 149.00 mark and benefitting from the ongoing pressure in US yields; Thursday’s base at 148.50 in view in the scenario of a dovish payrolls report.
- Antipodeans are a touch firmer but AUD remains in relative proximity to its recent multi-month low of 0.6479.
Fixed Income
- Benchmarks continue to climb after the poor ISM Manufacturing report in Thursday’s session, with further upside stemming from the downbeat risk tone on account of marked chip/tech pressure.
- USTs as high as 113-00, extending on Thursday’s 112-26 peak with yields pressured across the curve with 3s through 10s now all sub-4.00% and the 2yr as low as 4.10%.
- EGBs firmer, in-fitting with the above; Bunds as high as 134.92 with resistance touted at 134.98, 135.00 and then 135.22.
- Gilts are directionally in-fitting with peers but nearer to unchanged on the day given the marked outperformance yesterday heading into and after the BoE; holding just off a 100.61 peak, resistance at 100.77 from February.
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks in the green despite broader risk aversion as the complex remains propped up by looming geopolitical risks heading into the weekend.
- Focus for the weekend is on when/what the middle-eastern response is to the recent strikes on various commanders/key officials; overnight, reports suggested an attack on Israel could be carried out in days.
- WTI September currently sits within a USD 76.51-77.28/bbl range with Brent October in a USD 79.70-80.46/bbl parameter.
- Spot gold firmer and at the top-end of a USD 2.434-2,468.33.oz intraday range and for the most part holding at yesterday’s USD 2462/oz peak into NFP; base metals are mostly firmer, despite the tone, and perhaps deriving support from recent PBoC remarks which also bolstered the Yuan. Note, the likes of LME Copper and Dalian iron ore are still poised to post a loss for the week.
- BHP’s Escondida copper mine workers rejected the contract offer paving the way for a strike, while BHP will request a 5-day government mediation to negotiate with the Escondida union.
Geopolitics
- US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed new defensive military deployments, according to the White House.
- “American officials estimate that a significant Iranian attack will be carried out against Israel within a few days.”, via IsraelHayom.
- “Israeli media: Letter from Knesset members to Netanyahu supporting the incursion into Lebanon”, according to Al Arabiya.
- Syrian Observatory says Iranian militias in Deir Ezzor (city in Syria) raise alert; Iranian militias evacuate their headquarters in Albu Kamal in Deir Ezzor, via Al Arabiya.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: July Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 175,000, prior 206,000
- Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -5,000, prior -8,000
- Change in Private Payrolls, est. 140,000, prior 136,000
- Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
- Underemployment Rate, prior 7.4%
- Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.6%, prior 62.6%
- Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.3, prior 34.3
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.7%, prior 3.9%
- Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
- 10:00: June Factory Orders, est. -3.2%, prior -0.5%
- June Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior -0.7%
- June Durable Goods Orders, est. -6.6%, prior -6.6%
- June -DurablesLess Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
- June Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.1%
- June Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 1.0%, prior 1.0%
2B EUROPEAN REPORT
ISM-sparked pressure added to by significant INTC pressure, NFP ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 06:22 AM
- European bourses/US futures under pressure with the ISM-induced downside exacerbated by tech pressure post-INTC (-21%)
- Chipmakers lower after a grim update from INTC, AMZN lower after earnings, AAPL modestly softer
- DXY pressured overall but with peers generally mixed-rangebound, EUR back above 1.08 while Cable continues to slip post-BoE
- Fixed benchmarks continue to rise with yields pressured across the curve into Payrolls and the first post-FOMC Fed speak
- Crude and XAU in the green, complex benefitting from ongoing geopol. risk premia
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, Durable Goods (R), BoC Market Participants Survey, Comments from BoE’s Pill & Fed’s Barkin. Earnings from Chevron & Exxon
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -1.3%, with the ISM-induced downside continuing and being exacerbated by marked pressure in Intel post-earnings.
- As such, sectors are all in the red; Tech underperforms with heavyweight ASML opening lower by over 6% given INTC, Banking/Finance names hit on the pronounced downside in yields. Overall, the complex has a defensive configuration in-fitting with the broader risk tone.
- DAX 40, -1.2%, pressured with continued downside in Auto names and also its exposure to the tech-woes through Infineon.
- FTSE 100, -0.3%, is one of the better performers with large-cap defensive/energy names cushioning the downside, in addition to strength in IAG and GSK on Co. specifics.
- Stateside, futures are lower across the board, ES -1.0% & NQ -1.7%, NQ lagging given its tech-exposure with RTY -1.5% not far behind given the labour market concerns highlighted by ISM ahead of NFP; post-earnings, INTC -21%, AMZN -8.8% & AAPL -0.4%.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY pressured overall but with peers generally mixed-rangebound, index holding towards lows in a 104.10-42 range.
- EUR recouping from Thursday’s downside and is back on a 1.08 handle, EZ-specifics light with NFP likely to dictate.
- Cable continues to slip after the BoE cut on Thursday; 100- & 200-DMAs in focus just below the 1.27 mark at 1.2681 and 1.2647 respectively.
- JPY firmer, holding just below the 149.00 mark and benefitting from the ongoing pressure in US yields; Thursday’s base at 148.50 in view in the scenario of a dovish payrolls report.
- Antipodeans are a touch firmer but AUD remains in relative proximity to its recent multi-month low of 0.6479.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Benchmarks continue to climb after the poor ISM Manufacturing report in Thursday’s session, with further upside stemming from the downbeat risk tone on account of marked chip/tech pressure.
- USTs as high as 113-00, extending on Thursday’s 112-26 peak with yields pressured across the curve with 3s through 10s now all sub-4.00% and the 2yr as low as 4.10%.
- EGBs firmer, in-fitting with the above; Bunds as high as 134.92 with resistance touted at 134.98, 135.00 and then 135.22.
- Gilts are directionally in-fitting with peers but nearer to unchanged on the day given the marked outperformance yesterday heading into and after the BoE; holding just off a 100.61 peak, resistance at 100.77 from February.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks in the green despite broader risk aversion as the complex remains propped up by looming geopolitical risks heading into the weekend.
- Focus for the weekend is on when/what the middle-eastern response is to the recent strikes on various commanders/key officials; overnight, reports suggested an attack on Israel could be carried out in days.
- WTI September currently sits within a USD 76.51-77.28/bbl range with Brent October in a USD 79.70-80.46/bbl parameter.
- Spot gold firmer and at the top-end of a USD 2.434-2,468.33.oz intraday range and for the most part holding at yesterday’s USD 2462/oz peak into NFP; base metals are mostly firmer, despite the tone, and perhaps deriving support from recent PBoC remarks which also bolstered the Yuan. Note, the likes of LME Copper and Dalian iron ore are still poised to post a loss for the week.
- BHP’s Escondida copper mine workers rejected the contract offer paving the way for a strike, while BHP will request a 5-day government mediation to negotiate with the Escondida union.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- Swiss CPI YY (Jul) 1.3% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 1.3%); MM (Jul) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2%
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 1.40 (exp. 1.35), revenue 85.78bln (exp. 84.53bln), Products rev. USD 61.56bln (exp. 60.63bln), iPhone rev. USD 39.30bln (exp. 38.95bln), iPad revenue USD 7.16bln (exp. 6.63bln), Mac rev. USD 7.01bln (exp. 6.98bln), Wearables, home and accessories rev. USD 8.10bln (exp. 7.79bln), Service rev. USD 24.21bln (exp. 23.96bln), Greater China rev. USD 14.73bln (exp. 15.26bln). Shares -0.3% in the pre-market.
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 1.26 (exp. 1.03), rev. 148bln (exp. 148.56bln). Shares -8.3% in the pre-market.
- Intel Corp (INTC) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.02 (exp. 0.10), rev. 12.83bln (exp. 12.94bln). Shares -21% in the pre-market.
GEOPOLITICS
- US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed new defensive military deployments, according to the White House.
- “American officials estimate that a significant Iranian attack will be carried out against Israel within a few days.”, via IsraelHayom.
- “Israeli media: Letter from Knesset members to Netanyahu supporting the incursion into Lebanon”, according to Al Arabiya.
- Syrian Observatory says Iranian militias in Deir Ezzor (city in Syria) raise alert; Iranian militias evacuate their headquarters in Albu Kamal in Deir Ezzor, via Al Arabiya.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is softer despite the downbeat USD as the general risk tone weighs and perhaps with focus on MicroStrategy numbers overnight.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks suffered firm losses following the bloodbath and flight-to-quality stateside which was triggered by weak ISM Manufacturing data, while geopolitical concerns and mixed earnings added to the downbeat sentiment.
- ASX 200 declined amid the broad weakness and with firm losses seen across all sectors.
- Nikkei 225 fell beneath 37,000 for the first time since April, while the Topix index followed the benchmark into correction territory.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured which saw the former give up the 17,000 status and the mainland index also retreated, while there were bearish comments on trade from a Mofcom official who stressed the seriousness of difficulties and challenges in foreign trade.
- SK Hynix (000660 KS) was pressured by over 10% in APAC trade as chip stocks continued to sell off.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China MOFCOM official said the complexity of the foreign trade environment is rising and we should take into full account the seriousness of the difficulties and challenges in foreign trade, as well as noted that they will use many bilateral mechanisms to help enterprises actively respond to unreasonable trade restrictions.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they will analyse the impact of forex volatility on the economy and respond appropriately. Suzuki added that stock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditions and he is closely watching stock moves with a sense of urgency.
- Japanese Industry Minister Saito said economic fundamentals aren’t bad when asked about the sharp fall in the stock market, while he added that a strong movement is seen in investment and wage hikes are continuing.
- BoJ’s Uchida to hold a press conference following on from a local business leaders meeting in Hakodate on 7th August
- PBoC advisor reportedly said that China should ramp up fiscal stimulus to generate growth and set a firm inflation target, via Reuters citing remarks from advisor Yiping.
- Nintendo (7974 JT) Q1 (JPY) Net 80.9bln (exp. 79bln), Operating 54.5bln (exp. 83bln), Recurring Profit 113bln, -55.3%. Switch: Sold 2.1mln units (prev. 3.91mln Y/Y); maintains FY sales forecast of 13.5mln units (prev. 15.7mln)
DATA RECAP
- South Korean CPI MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.25% (Prev. -0.2%)
- South Korean CPI YY (Jul) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Australian PPI QQ (Q2) 1.0% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Australian PPI YY (Q2) 4.8% (Prev. 4.3%)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
ISM sparked a sell off which continued on AMZN -6.9% & INTC -18.9% results – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 01:54 AM
- US stocks sold off in the wake of the disappointing US ISM Manufacturing PMI data which sparked a flight to quality; APAC followed suit with hefty losses in the region.
- Post-earnings, Apple (AAPL) rose 0.6%, Amazon (AMZN) fell 6.9%, and Intel (INTC) tumbled 18.9%; US equity futures remained on the back foot.
- BoE Chief Economist Pill said there will be bumps in the road on inflation ahead and he is not committing to further interest rate cuts.
- European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6% after the cash market finished with losses of 2.2% on Thursday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI, Italian Industrial Output, Italian Retail Sales, US NFP, Durable Goods (R), BoC Market Participants Survey, Comments from BoE’s Pill & Fed’s Barkin, Earnings from AXA, Engie, IAG, IMCD, Volvo Car AB, Chevron & Exxon
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks sold off in the wake of the disappointing US ISM Manufacturing PMI data as the headline surprisingly declined which printed outside the bottom end of the forecast range and prices paid rose, while other data also showed a larger-than-expected rise in jobless claims. There was a distinct flight-to-quality throughout the session which benefitted the Dollar and Treasuries, while the key after-market earnings from the likes of Amazon, Apple and Intel were mixed.
- SPX -1.4% at 5,447, NDX -2.4% at 18,890, DJIA -1.2% at 40,348, RUT -3.0% at 2,186.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Apple Inc (AAPL) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 1.40 (exp. 1.35), revenue 85.78bln (exp. 84.53bln), Products rev. USD 61.56bln (exp. 60.63bln), iPhone rev. USD 39.30bln (exp. 38.95bln), iPad revenue USD 7.16bln (exp. 6.63bln), Mac rev. USD 7.01bln (exp. 6.98bln), Wearables, home and accessories rev. USD 8.10bln (exp. 7.79bln), Service rev. USD 24.21bln (exp. 23.96bln), Greater China rev. USD 14.73bln (exp. 15.26bln). Shares rose 0.6% after-hours.
- Amazon.com Inc (AMZN) Q2 2024 (USD): EPS 1.26 (exp. 1.03), rev. 148bln (exp. 148.56bln). Shares fell 6.9% after-market.
- Intel Corp (INTC) Q2 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.02 (exp. 0.10), rev. 12.83bln (exp. 12.94bln). Shares tumbled 18.9% after-hours.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks suffered firm losses following the bloodbath and flight-to-quality stateside which was triggered by weak ISM Manufacturing data, while geopolitical concerns and mixed earnings added to the downbeat sentiment.
- ASX 200 declined amid the broad weakness and with firm losses seen across all sectors.
- Nikkei 225 fell beneath 37,000 for the first time since April, while the Topix index followed the benchmark into correction territory.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were pressured which saw the former give up the 17,000 status and the mainland index also retreated, while there were bearish comments on trade from a Mofcom official who stressed the seriousness of difficulties and challenges in foreign trade.
- US equity futures remained on the back foot amid the ongoing sell-off and the recent bout of mostly underwhelming quarterly earnings results and guidance.
- European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.6% after the cash market finished with losses of 2.2% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY was steady and held on to the prior day’s gains amid the broad risk-off mood following the weak US ISM data which supported haven currencies, while the attention turns to the incoming jobs data.
- EUR/USD traded rangebound after falling beneath the 1.0800 handle with the single currency not helped by the recent rise in EU unemployment.
- GBP/USD remained subdued in the aftermath of the BoE’s first rate cut in four years.
- USD/JPY price action was choppy after the recent central bank frenzy but with support seen at 149.00.
- Antipodeans gradually rebounded off yesterday’s lows but with upside limited amid the downbeat risk sentiment.
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures extended on this week’s gains with upside fuelled by haven demand following weak ISM data and as the US 10yr yield fell to a 6-month low, while money markets are fully pricing three Fed rate cuts this year and around a 30% chance of a 50bps move in September.
- Bund futures took a breather after climbing to multi-month highs above the 134.00 level.
- 10-year JGB futures rallied from the open as the flight-to-quality rolled over into Asia and with declining yields in Japan including the 10-year yield which fell beneath 1.00%.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures nursed some of their recent losses after slumping alongside the broad risk-off mood and flight-to-quality trade, while the OPEC+ JMMC did not make any recommendations, as expected.
- Spot gold edged higher amid the flight-to-quality but with gains capped as the NFP report looms.
- Copper futures were lacklustre following the recent slide as weak US ISM data spooked risk assets.
- BHP’s Escondida copper mine workers rejected the contract offer paving the way for a strike, while BHP will request a 5-day government mediation to negotiate with the Escondida union.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin declined alongside the selling across risk assets and briefly dipped beneath USD 64,000.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China MOFCOM official said the complexity of the foreign trade environment is rising and we should take into full account the seriousness of the difficulties and challenges in foreign trade, as well as noted that they will use many bilateral mechanisms to help enterprises actively respond to unreasonable trade restrictions.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said they will analyse the impact of forex volatility on the economy and respond appropriately. Suzuki added that stock prices are determined in the market based on various factors such as economic conditions and he is closely watching stock moves with a sense of urgency.
- Japanese Industry Minister Saito said economic fundamentals aren’t bad when asked about the sharp fall in the stock market, while he added that a strong movement is seen in investment and wage hikes are continuing.
DATA RECAP
- South Korean CPI MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.25% (Prev. -0.2%)
- South Korean CPI YY (Jul) 2.6% vs. Exp. 2.5% (Prev. 2.4%)
- Australian PPI QQ (Q2) 1.0% (Prev. 0.9%)
- Australian PPI YY (Q2) 4.8% (Prev. 4.3%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli military said warning sirens sounded in northern Israel.
- US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed new defensive military deployments, according to the White House.
- US officials said they are preparing to counter an Iranian attack on Israel within days, according to Axios.
- Turkish President Erdogan told US President Biden that Israel does not want a ceasefire, while he added the killing of the Hamas chief harmed ceasefire efforts and that Israel is trying to spread conflict to the wider region.
OTHER
- US announced the release of detainees including Evan Gershkovich and Paul Whelan from Russia in a multi-country swap with the swap effort the result of intense diplomacy involving multiple countries, while the Biden administration will not change policy related to Russian aggression.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE Chief Economist Pill said there will be bumps in the road on inflation ahead and he is not committing to further interest rate cuts.
2D JAPAN
Japanese stocks plummet on the strengthening of the yen. As we have pointed out to you during these past several days, the yen carry trade ended
(zerohedge)
“It’s A Disaster” – Japanese Stocks Suffer Biggest Point Drop Since Black Monday
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 08:14 AM
We warned yesterday that the BoJ has boxed itself into a corner – forced to decide between a crashing currency or a crashing stock market – and overnight it appears traders put policymakers to the test to see what their reaction function might be.
Yen strength exacerbated an ugly US session and dragged Japanese stocks down further overnight as Japan’s Topix Index entered a technical correction in its worst two-day rout since 2011…
“The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen coupled with tech sector weakness is poised to significantly impact the Asian stock market,” said Manish Bhargava, a fund manager at Straits Investment Holdings in Singapore.
“Given the substantial weight of tech stocks in Asian indices, disappointing results from tech giants could trigger a broader market downturn in Asian markets.”
So which will the policymakers choose to save?
Source: Bloomberg
Nicholas Smith, Japan equity strategist at CLSA, said, “I think markets globally are having a headless chicken moment,” with investors excessively worried about the change in currency rates.
“Stocks getting hit hardest are the ones that surged this year,” he said.
Japan’s benchmark Nikkei Stock Average on Friday recorded the second biggest daily drop in its history, as stocks extended losses following a sell-off in New York overnight.
The index plunged to 35,909.70, down 2,216.63 points, or 5.81%, marking its lowest close since Jan. 26.
Friday’s decline was the second largest in the index’s history after the Black Monday crash of October 1987, when global markets sank and the index cratered by 3,836.48 points.
“I didn’t expect stocks to fall this much – it’s a disaster,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, chief fund manager at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co. in Tokyo.
“This might be temporary, but Japanese stocks are in their worst situation.”
Once the main drivers of the market’s ascent, foreign investors sold net ¥1.56 trillion Japanese cash equities and futures combined in the week that ended July 26, according to data from Japan Exchange Group.
“Speculative players are expanding a lot of their short positions in Japanese equities this morning, especially in the futures market, and they are buying U.S. equities,” said Yoshitaka Suda, a quantitative strategist at Nomura Securities.
“The magnitude of macro hedge funds shorting Japanese equities is shocking.”
He said macro hedge funds were net selling Japanese equities and net buying U.S. ones because “where earnings are concerned, U.S. equities look better able to ride out a global economic downturn, whereas Japanese equities are more cyclical.”
The question is – how much more pain will policymakers allow before they step in (contrary-wise to their recent interventions) to save the market?
3 CHINA
CHINA/
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
HUNGARY/REST OF EUROPE
Orban Prime Minister of Hungary is furious with Europe undergoing massive immigration of migrants. This is killing all of Europe countries economies. Now they are challenging Orban and he is winning
(Remix)
Orbán: The West Sees Immigration As A “Way Of Getting Rid Of The Ethnic Homogeneity That Is The Basis Of The Nation-State”
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 02:00 AM
By Remix News
In Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s speech at Tusványos in Romania, he focuses on the intractable differences developing between the East and West of Europe, with immigration one of the key divisions. He not only rejects the Western view on immigration, but sees it as an agenda with a very specific ideology behind it, which is designed to erode the nation-state entirely.
“But Westerners, quite differently, believe that nation-states no longer exist. They therefore deny that there is a common culture and a public morality based on (the nation-state). There is no public morality, if you watched the Olympic opening yesterday, you saw it. So, they also think differently about migration. They believe that migration is not a threat or a problem, but in fact a way of getting rid of the ethnic homogeneity that is the basis of a nation. This is the essence of the progressive liberal international concept. That is why the absurdity does not occur to them, or they do not see it as absurd,” he said.
He said that this contrast between East and West is playing out through war and the movement of peoples, saying that while hundreds of thousands of Christian people are killing each other in the East, “in the West of Europe, we are letting hundreds of thousands of people into a foreign civilization, which is absurd from our Central European point of view.”
Migration is “uprooting European societies from their European soil.” – Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán
·
1,364 Views
This dramatic ideological cleavage is not a “secret,” according to Orbán. He said that the documents and policy papers coming out of the EU shpw that the “clear aim is to transcend the nation.”
“But the point is that the powers, the sovereignty, should be transferred from the nation-states to Brussels. This is the logic behind all major measures. In their minds, the nation is a historical, or transitional, formation of the 18th and 19th centuries — as it came, so it may go. They are already in a post-national state in the Western half of Europe. It’s not just a politically different situation, but what I’m trying to talk about here is that it’s a new mental space.”
Orbán says that the Hungarian perspective is different, which is why the government is taking measures now to ensure it has a resilient social structure, and the first step is to combat Hungary’s demographic decline. He noted that progress in this area had been made in the preceding years but acknowledged that there has been a standstill and new measures must be taken.
“By 2035, Hungary should be demographically self-sustaining. There is no question of a population being replaced by migration. The Western experience is that if there are more guests than owners, the home is no longer a home. This risk should not be taken here.”
Orbán notes that not everyone in the West is happy about the demographic transformation taking place in their countries, and in many cases, there are strong majorities against continued mass immigration. This, in turn, has led to a sharp increase in repression against dissenting voices and increasingly undemocratic trends in Western countries.
And finally, the last element of reality is that this post-national situation that we see in the West has a serious, I would say dramatic, political consequence that is shaking democracy. Societies are increasingly resistant to migration, gender, war and globalism. And this creates the political problem of elites and the people, elitism and populism. This is a dominant phenomenon in Western politics today…This means that the elites condemn the people for drifting to the right. The feelings and ideas of the people are labeled xenophobia, homophobia and nationalism. The people, meanwhile, in response, accuse the elite of not caring about what is important to them, but of sinking into some kind of mindless globalism.
Consequently, the elites and the people cannot agree with each other on cooperation. I could mention many countries. But if the people and elites cannot agree to cooperate, how can it become a representative democracy? Because here we have an elite that does not want to represent the people, and is proud of not wanting to represent them, and here we have the people who are not represented.”
Continue reading at rmx.news
end
ENGLAND
The English citizens are furious with the immigration of violent migrants. Government states that they must accept what is going on!
(zerohedge)
UK PM Calls For Crackdown On Angry Brits – Violent Migrants Get A Pass — So these government officials tells us what is acceptable or not!! BS
UK Prime Minister Calls For Crackdown On Angry Brits – Violent Migrants Get A Pass
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Beyond the obvious Cloward-Piven agenda in play throughout most of Europe and the US, open border policies accomplish much more than simply erasing western culture with third-world migrants. The introduction of violent peoples from violent countries and ideologies is a perfect way to generate public hostility and getting them to react in anger. When a government refuses to represent the interests of actual citizens that are under attack by foreign elements the only avenue left to that populace is self defense.
Establishment elites understand very well that their malicious activities are going to generate a vengeful response. Their first measure is to shame the public with accusations of “extremism” when the public fights back. When that doesn’t work, the next measure is to use popular riots as an excuse to impose authoritarian controls “in the name of safety.”
In other words, government officials invite brutal people into the society, let those people run amok while refusing to protect the public, then those same officials punish the public for protecting themselves after leaving them no other choice.
This Hegelian Dialectic is ever present today in the UK where a teenage child of Rwandan migrants planned and executed a violent knife attack on a community center hosting a children’s dance recital. Three young girls are now dead and at least ten others were injured. The UK media has attempted to spin the event as if it is rooted in mental illness (the attack was planned – not spontaneous). They lied by omission when they initially tried to hide the family origins of the attacker. And, they have chastised Brits who rightly took to the streets to protest across the country.
This is not only about one knife attack in the community of Southport, it’s about thousands upon thousands of incidents spanning many years of migrant criminality and the government manipulation of statistics to hide the growing problem. An examination of violent crime rates in England and Wales shows an explosion of incidents from 2014 onward; right after open refugee and asylum standards were implemented across the EU (including the UK at that time) to increase migrants from the Middle East and Africa.
UK police and political authorities specifically avoid keeping a record of the migrant status of most perpetrators, making it difficult to directly prove who is responsible for the crime spike. Correlation is not necessarily causation, but there were no other dramatic changes to UK society during that time period that would account for the crime spike. The only thing that changed was the type of migrants the UK government was accepting and the amount of people they were allowing in.
Remove the migrants and watch crime numbers plummet; it’s that simple. The UK public knows it and those in power choose to ignore it. This has led to predictable conflict.
The level of gaslighting used to counter rising discontent in the UK is rather familiar to many conservatives in the US. Whenever patriots take any form of action, the propaganda is swift and officials automatically demand greater powers to “stop extremism.” UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has announced a plan to crack down, not on violent migrants, but on protesting Brits.
“These thugs are mobile,”Starmer claims, “they move from community to community. We must have a policing response that can do the same.”
His warnings also included a message to social media companies to stop protest rhetoric on their websites, an obvious hint that the UK will be seeking internet censorship as a way to stop inconvenient information from spreading.
Was this the plan all along? The government apathy to the migrant flood makes perfect sense when you consider the concept of Problem, Reaction, Solution.
Keep in mind, leftist protests and riots have been ongoing in the UK for the past year in the name of Gaza, among other causes. The law enforcement response to these situations has been minimal. It is clear that there is a grotesque double standard when it comes to conservative or nationalist protests – If you aren’t on Team Progressive, then you aren’t allowed a redress of grievances. The left is allowed to riot, conservatives are not even allowed to take to the streets. This is what happened after January 6th in the US and it’s happening right now in the UK.
If the goal is a dystopian nightmare state then the UK is well on its way. The public has made clear that they will no longer be abused. The question is, who will blink first – The populace under threat of Orwellian surveillance and lockdowns, or the establishment fearing that the civil unrest they so hoped to trigger might grow out of their control.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
/ISRAEL/HAMAS/IRAN
just see how Israel got to Haniyeh
(Jerusalem Post)
Haniyeh Killed By Bomb Placed In Tehran Guesthouse 2 Months Ago In Astounding Mossad Penetration Of IRGC Security
THURSDAY, AUG 01, 2024 – 07:05 PM
New details have emerged in the Israeli covert assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was staying in Tehran to attend the country’s presidential inauguration events.
Iran and Hamas’ backers considered Haniyeh to be essentially akin to a top foreign diplomat or even head of state, and so at times Haniyeh was known to travel openly in places like Qatar, Iran, or other Gulf states. And yet the bombing that took is life is being widely viewed in Iran as an utterly humiliating security failure for the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which was hosting the Hamas leader.
The NY Times is reporting Thursday of events the day prior that he was assassinated by “an explosive device covertly smuggled into the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying, according to seven Middle Eastern officials, including two Iranians, and an American official.”
“The bomb had been hidden approximately two months ago in the guesthouse, according to five of the Middle Eastern officials,” the report continues. “The guesthouse is run and protected by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps and is part of a large compound, known as Neshat, in an upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran.”
Likely among the “seven Middle Eastern officials” cited as sources for the report include some Israeli intel officials themselves, given the level of specified details. No doubt they are ‘spiking the football’ and want the Iranians and the world to know the astounding level of success they had in penetrating IRGC security and protocol.
For an Israeli asset to be able to access an Iranian diplomatic house in Neshat – the upscale neighborhood of northern Tehran where the bombing took place – and then be able to pinpoint down to the moment the target be in a specific room is almost unbelievable and the stuff of a James Bond spy thriller.
“The bomb was detonated remotely, the five officials said, once it was confirmed that he was inside his room at the guesthouse,” NYT continues, nothing that the blast also took out Haniyeh’s bodyguard but left alive Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader Ziyad al-Nakhalah, who was literally staying in the next room over.
“The explosion shook the building, shattered some windows and caused the partial collapse of an exterior wall, according to the two Iranian officials, members of the Revolutionary Guards briefed on the incident,” the report continues. A widely circulating photograph also appears to confirm this description of events.
The Times mentioned that there are alternative theories, however, such as the possibility of a small missile having struck Haniyeh’s room, which is what Hamas’ initial official statement late in the day Wednesday indicated. Neither Hamas nor the Iranians are likely to confirm these specific aspects of the alleged Mossad intel op, which could go down as the most daring in history.
Axios has meanwhile issued a follow-up report which has the following additional details via Israeli security sources:
- They added that the bomb was a high-tech device that used artificial intelligence.
- It was detonated remotely by Mossad operatives who were on Iranian soil after receiving intelligence that Haniyeh was indeed in the room.
- The IRGC said it has opened an investigation around the incident.
The Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was reportedly awakened in the middle of the night by IRGC Generals in order to be notified, after which he called an emergency meeting of the Supreme National Security Council. That’s when, NYT says, he “issued an order to strike Israel in retaliation, according to the three Iranian officials.”
Has Mossad been able to breach the top echelons of the IRGC? It appears so…
If true, this means that the Revolutionary Guards’ top intelligence unit actively provided information to Mossad: “It was detonated remotely by Mossad operatives who were on Iranian soil after receiving intelligence that Haniyeh was indeed in the room.”
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Levent Kemal
@leventkemaI
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7h
How the Mossad killed Hamas’ leader in Iran The bomb was planted in the room in advance, the sources said. They added that the bomb was a high-tech device that used AI. https://axios.com/2024/08/01/haniyeh-assassination-mossad…
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It’s anyone’s guess when or how this ‘retaliation’ will come. The April 13th drone and missile attack against Israel was highly telegraphed and limited, by all accounts. Likely Tehran will mount a more severe and less predictable attack this time, which could come at any moment, and probably in nighttime hours for a greater element of surprise.
end
ISRAEL///GAZA/
Now Palestinian Jihad deputy head Mohammed al Jabari killed
(JerusalemPost)
IDF kills Palestinian Islamic Jihad deputy weapons production head Mohammed al-Jabari
Mohammed al-Jabari’s role in the terror group was to finance weapon manufacturing infrastructure for the Islamic Jihad in northern Gaza.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 2, 2024 10:31
The IDF killed the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s deputy head of weapons production, Mohammed al-Jabari, in a targeted intelligence-based operation, the Israeli military said on Friday morning.
According to the IDF, Al-Jabari was responsible for financing weapon manufacturing infrastructure for the Islamic Jihad in northern Gaza.
Al-Jabari was also reportedly in charge of the distribution of salaries and funds to the organization’s terrorists and actively participated in efforts to restore the group’s rocket manufacturing capabilities and infrastructure.
The IDF emphasized that before the strike, which eliminated Al-Jabari, steps were taken to mitigate the risk of harming civilians through the usage of “precise munitions, surveillance, and additional intelligence.”
30 terrorists killed
In addition to the strike, IDF troops of the 162nd Division have continued operational activities in the area of Rafah, resulting in the elimination of approximately 30 terrorists in the last 24 hours, the military continued.
The troops carried out “precise, intelligence-based operational activities” to eliminate the terrorists, the IDF said. They also added that the attacks were done “during close-quarters encounters and in aerial strikes.”
Tunnel identification
In addition to the elimination of terrorists, troops of the IDF’s 16th Brigade began operations in central Gaza that resulted in the finding of a terror tunnel after a group of terrorists emerged from it to attack the troops.
Following the discovery of the tunnel, the Israel Air Force eliminated the terrorists who were within it. The air force then struck a structure in which numerous explosive devices and weapons were stored.
END
Deif confirmed dead. Hamas leadership must now recalculate after major eliminations
(zerohedge)
In the IDF’s crosshairs: Remaining Hamas leadership recalculate after eliminations – analysis
Hamas leadership in crisis after IDF kills top figures Deif and Haniyeh, leaving Sinwar under pressure in Gaza.
By AMIR BOHBOTAUGUST 2, 2024 09:45Updated: AUGUST 2, 2024 09:47
The assassination of Mohammed Deif, Hamas’s military wing leader, and the assassination of the organization’s political bureau chief, Ismail Haniyeh, will force Hamas’s remaining leadership to reassess their strategy and to remain in hiding. They could be next in line for assassination.
The main pressure now falls on Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, who is nearly alone in leading the terror organization in the Strip.
His younger brother, Mohammed Sinwar, might succeed the military wing leader, Mohammed Deif, who was killed in an IDF attack in Khan Younis about two weeks ago. Alongside him, the brigade commanders still operating in the Strip might receive promotions.
Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in Tehran Wednesday, is expected to be replaced by his colleagues in the organization’s political leadership, Khaled Mashaal or Mousa Abu Marzouk.
Mohammed Deif confirmed killed
The IDF and Shin Bet confirmed on Thursday, after several weeks of tense waiting, that Mohammed Deif was killed in the attack in Khan Younis. In the same attack, Deif’s deputy, the commander of Hamas’s Khan Yunis Brigade, Rafa’a Salameh, was also killed.
This followed an earlier announcement by Hamas that Haniyeh was killed in an Israeli bombing in Tehran, where he was visiting to attend the inauguration of Iran’s new president.
According to the Iranian news agency, the house where Haniyeh was staying was booby-trapped. The Revolutionary Guards announced an investigation had been opened, and it was reported that one of Haniyeh’s bodyguards also died in the attack. Haniyeh’s body was transferred to Qatar, where he was buried after a ceremony held in Tehran.
END
Opinion…
Striking back: Israel’s bold message through recent high-profile assassinations – opinion
Ultimately, the events of this week signal a clear message: No matter how secure an enemy might feel, no matter how hidden or protected, Israel’s reach is long.
By YAAKOV KATZAUGUST 2, 2024 08:52Updated: AUGUST 2, 2024 09:12
In September 1972, prime minister Golda Meir convened a meeting of cabinet ministers and security officials to approve a secret operation called “Wrath of God.” Days earlier, 11 Israeli athletes had been tragically murdered on the sidelines of the Olympics in Munich by Palestinian terrorists, and Meir had given the green light for an Israeli mission of retribution.
It was a targeted assassination campaign that sent the Mossad’s top unit, Kidon – Hebrew for bayonet – to hunt down all the terrorists involved in the attack and its planning.
It would take years, some reports claim more than a decade, but it illustrated something simple in Israel’s ethos: No matter how long and no matter the location, Israel will reach those who seek its destruction.
It is a piece of history worth keeping in mind this week, after Israel killed Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr on Tuesday night and then, allegedly, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the pre-dawn hours of Wednesday morning.
Within six hours, between 8 p.m. and 2 a.m. Israel settled the score with the man in Lebanon who orchestrated the firing of thousands of rockets into Israel over the last 10 months – including the one that murdered 12 children in Majdal Shams on Saturday – and with the man who oversaw, from afar, the October 7 massacre.
These were two strikes in two capital cities, Beirut and Tehran, that were believed to be off-limits. Carrying them out in the span of just a few hours sent a very strong message, not just about Israel’s intelligence and operational capabilities, but also about its resolve and determination to strike at whoever raises a hand against it.
It was a reminder of the way Israel once was, the country with the military and intelligence agencies that could reach an enemy, no matter what was needed and no matter where in the world that person was hiding. It was a reminder of the Israel that people believed in, before the military and intelligence disasters of October 7.
The elimination of both these men, though, is much more than just settling a score; it is also about undermining the Hezbollah and Hamas capabilities while sending an important message to Israel’s enemies, that there is no place they are immune.
Shukr has long been in Israel’s sights and had a $5 million bounty on his head in the United States for his involvement in the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut that killed 241 US servicemen. He was Hezbollah’s top military commander, second-in-command to Hassan Nasrallah, to whom he also served as a personal advisor.
The decision to target Shukr as the response to the Majdal massacre shows the complexity Israel continues to face when it comes to Hezbollah.
Israel faces complexity
When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu returned to Israel from Washington on Sunday and convened the security cabinet, some of the ministers came with hawkish and aggressive proposals. Ministers Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir had made no secret of their requests to bomb significant Hezbollah targets and even declare an all-out war aimed at degrading the Lebanese group’s capabilities until it completely stopped its attacks on the North.
On the other hand, Netanyahu has long been wary of a larger Middle East war, and he no doubt heard as much from President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, when he met them last Thursday.
Eliminating Shukr was something of a compromise. On the one hand, it is a significant blow and has the potential to lead Hezbollah to retaliate aggressively. On the other hand, it can also be viewed as precise, focused, and isolated. It is a way for Israel to say it did something big to retaliate for the murder of the 12 children but that it does not want a wider conflict. The ball is now in Hezbollah’s court.
This is obviously a gamble, but one that Israel apparently felt safe taking; assessing, it seems, that Hezbollah would get the message and close this round.
That was all true until six hours later, when an explosion rocked an IRGC compound in Tehran and Haniyeh, the veteran Hamas leader, was killed. The assassination of Haniyeh is not what is interesting – he has deserved to die for years and even more so since October 7. What is interesting is the timing and the location. Killing Haniyeh right after Shukr’s death connected the Hamas leader’s killing to the retaliation to the Majdal Shams massacre, even though the missile was fired by Hezbollah and not by Hamas.
The reason for the connection is because of the location where he was killed, Tehran, the sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah. Killing Haniyeh in Tehran immediately after the inauguration of Iran’s new president Masoud Pezeshkian was meant to send a much louder message to Iran that its culpability in all of the attacks against Israel has not been ignored.
Haniyeh was not an Iranian official, but the attack in the center of Tehran on the day of the inauguration was meant to show Iran how vulnerable it is, how deep Israel has penetrated its military and intelligence defenses, and how the ayatollahs should keep that in mind as they continue green-lighting attacks against Israel.
The question is what happens next? By the time you are reading this, it is possible that Iran has already retaliated, either directly or through its proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, and Syria. It could respond as in April, when it unleashed a direct missile and drone assault against Israel, or it could try to attack an Israeli or Jewish target overseas, something it has done successfully in the past, like in Burgas, in 2012, or Buenos Aires, in 1992. It could also try both.
If Hezbollah, for example, decides to respond by firing a barrage of missiles at Tel Aviv, Israel will need to again decide how to respond – will it swallow the attack if the missiles are intercepted by David’s Sling or Arrow interceptors, or will it feel compelled to retaliate again, continuing the cycle?
What about an Iranian attack?
If Tehran launches a massive direct attack, Israel will also need to decide what to do. On the one hand, if almost all the missiles are intercepted again, will Israel need to respond? Or will it still feel the need to do something and maybe even escalate, using the attack as justification to launch even more extensive strikes in Iran, something the regime definitely does not want?
These are just some of the scenarios that are being gamed out right now in Jerusalem, Tehran, Beirut, and Gaza. Everyone is analyzing and trying to predict what the other side will do.
And then there is the question of how the Haniyeh hit will impact the hostage negotiations. On the one hand, it is possible that it will undermine the talks and push Hamas to toughen its demands.
On the other hand, it has the potential to expedite the talks, with the Hamas leadership now concerned that the longer they wait, the greater the chance that more senior members can also be eliminated.
Does Yahya Sinwar care about all of this from his Gaza tunnel? Difficult to know, although one thing is certain, he knows the value of the hostages and that the more of them who remain alive, the greater concessions he can extract from Israel.
Ultimately, the events of this week signal a clear message: No matter how secure an enemy might feel, no matter how hidden or protected, Israel’s reach is long. It is a potent reminder that Israel is vigilant and waiting for whatever test might still be coming.
The writer is a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) and a former editor-in-chief of The Jerusalem Post.
end
ISRAEL/IRAN
Hacker Israeli group takes responsibility for Iran’s reported WiFi collapse
(JerusalemPost)
Israeli hacker group takes responsibility for reported collapse of Wi-Fi in Iran
WeRedEvils has been operating in a non-official capacity since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
By MAARIV, JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 2, 2024 02:08Updated: AUGUST 2, 2024 04:20
The Israeli hacker group, “We Red Evils Original”, took responsibility for reported WiFi outages in Iran, according to Israeli media on Thursday night.
Shortly before reports in Iran, the group posted a message on their Telegram saying, ‘In the coming minutes, we will attack internet systems and providers in Iran. A severe blow is on the way.’
The Post found many comments in Iran from users saying they had heard the internet was down in parts of the country and that there were internet blackouts in certain parts of Tehran.
WeRedEvils has been operating in a non-official capacity since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war.
This is not the first time the group has reportedly hacked foreign countries. In October 2023, the group claimed to have hacked into the main project management system for oil infrastructure in Iran.
“We managed to get our hands on vital and sensitive software that we will not go into detail about here, we are sure that Iran already understands the extent of the damage it currently has. As we know and have seen in the past such rigs and reactors in certain cases can cause mass destruction in the event of internal leaks or overheating,” the group wrote on its Telegram channel.
Other claims of success
In November, the hackers claimed to have successfully blocked all of the Hadid family members from their WhatsApp accounts, providing screenshots and contact details as proof, they announced on their Telegram.
According to X reports, they claimed to have cut off the internet in Yemen in early November in retaliation for Houthi missile launches. The Internet Observatory Netblocks corroborated it at the time
end
ISRAEL/IRAN
Biden vows to defend Israel against all threats from Iran
(JerusalemPost)
IDF on ‘high alert’ as Biden vows US to defend Israel against ‘all threats from Iran’
White House says president and Netanyahu discussed ‘new defensive US military deployments’ during phone call; Hezbollah fires rockets at north for first time since commander killed
By EMANUEL FABIAN FOLLOW
and JACOB MAGID FOLLOW
Today, 4:35 am
People wave Hezbollah flags as they accompany the casket of the Lebanese terror group’s top military commander Fuad Shukr, during his funeral procession in Beirut’s southern suburbs on August 1, 2024. (Ibrahim Amro/AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces on Thursday said it was on “high alert” as the country braces for a response to the assassinations this week of Hezbollah’s military chief in Beirut and Hamas’s leader in Tehran, but pledged the military knew how to handle any threat.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meanwhile spoke with US President Joe Biden, who the White House said stressed America’s commitment to defending Israel’s security “against all threats from Iran,” and that the two discussed new US military deployments to protect against possible attacks from ballistic missiles and drones.
The call came as Israeli television reported that Israel was working to finalize the coordination of a regional and international coalition in order to thwart a potential response by Iran and Hezbollah to the killings of Ismail Haniyeh and Fuad Shukr, as was the case when Iran fired hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel on April 13-14.
While the IDF has claimed responsibility for killing Shukr, Israel has not officially commented on the assassination of Haniyeh, which Hamas, Iran and their allies have blamed on it.
“We struck on Tuesday night in Lebanon and killed Fuad Shukr in an accurate aerial strike. I want to emphasize, there was no other aerial strike, not a missile and not an Israeli drone, in the entire Middle East that night, and I won’t comment further,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Thursday when asked about Haniyeh.
Earlier, The New York Times reported that the explosion that killed Haniyeh and his bodyguard early Wednesday morning was set off by a sophisticated, remote-controlled bomb smuggled about two months ago into the Hamas leader’s room at the Tehran guesthouse where he was staying.
An unverified image of the Tehran building where Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was killed on July 31, 2024. (Social media, used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)
“Since the beginning of the war. we have faced various threats from far and near,” Hagari said, referring to the ongoing conflict sparked by Hamas’s October 7 onslaught. “We have proven recently that the State of Israel knows how to deal with threats in defense, and to respond with a mighty attack.”
He said the IDF was holding continuous assessments on the situation, but for now there was no change to Home Front Command guidelines for civilians. “We have our finger on the pulse all the time.”
“We have very good defense systems, and we have international allies that bolstered their forces in the area to aid us against these threats,” Hagari said.
IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari delivers an English-language address, June 16, 2024. (Screenshot)
He emphasized, however, that Israel’s defenses are “not hermetic.”
“Be vigilant and continue to follow the instructions of the Home Front Command,” he said, adding that if there are any changes, the military will update immediately.
Hagari said that “the IDF is on high alert, both in defense and in attack. IDF troops are deployed in the air, at sea, and on the ground, and are ready for any scenario, and especially with plans to carry out attacks in the immediate time-frame.”
Channel 12 reported that in addition to increased aerial patrols, dozens of Israeli Air Force fighter jets were waiting on tarmacs, ready to launch an attack or defend against one.
F-35i fighter jets are seen at the Nevatim Air Base in southern Israel, in an undated handout photo. (Israel Defense Forces)
The IDF has also been monitoring and limiting the transportation of hazardous materials to several factories in northern Israel as a precautionary measure. According to a military source, the Home Front Command has not ordered any of the relevant factories to halt their operations.
Ynet news reported Wednesday that the Strauss ice cream factory in Acre was forced to halt operations because it was told to clear out the ammonia gas it normally uses, which may be harmful to the public in the event of a rocket attack.
“The Home Front Command maintains continuous contact with all the factories… which includes daily audits and ongoing situation assessments together with the local authorities and the Environmental Protection Ministry. This is to maintain readiness and a complete picture of the amount of hazardous materials,” the IDF said in a response to a query.
Israel said to warn shackles will come off if civilians harmed
After a lull of over 48 hours, Hezbollah attacked Israel for the first time since Shukr’s killing, claiming responsibility for rocket fire at the Western Galilee on Thursday night.
In a statement, Hezbollah claimed to have launched dozens of rockets at the northern border community of Metzuba in response to an Israeli strike in the Lebanese village of Chamaa earlier in the day, which reportedly killed four Syrians and wounded several Lebanese civilians.
The IDF later said it struck a Hezbollah rocket launcher in southern Lebanon’s Yater that was used to fire the barrage.
According to the IDF, several rockets launched in the attack were intercepted by air defenses, while others impacted open areas. There were no injuries.
Earlier, an unsourced Channel 12 report said Israel has conveyed a message via Arab and other regional third parties to Hezbollah that, whereas the Lebanese terror group killed 12 children in Majdal Shams on Saturday night, Israel responded by hitting a military target, Shukr. If Hezbollah responds, the Israeli message was quoted as saying, it will be a case of “army against army. But if you start to hit civilian targets, this will be a broad war against Hezbollah, and Israel will see itself as unconstrained.”
What this means, the TV report suggested, was not that Israel would target civilians, but that it could target Lebanese infrastructure, including in Beirut. The goal of the message, the report said, was to constrain Hezbollah.
Channel 12 also cited an unnamed senior Israeli source who said the current high state of military preparation for a potential attack could last for several days. While Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah “could attempt to respond quickly,” the source said, it could take the Iranians longer to decide “how and when they want to respond.”
An Iranian woman at Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh’s funeral procession in Tehran holds a sign showing terror leaders and a nuclear scientist whose deaths have been blamed on Israel, August 1, 2024. These are (L to R) Palestinian Islamic Jihad secretary general Fathi Shaqaqi, Iranian physicist and scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iraqi commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, Haniyeh, Iranian Quds Force chief Qasem Soleimani, Hezbollah commander Imad Mughnieh and Hamas spiritual guide Sheikh Ahmed Yassin. (AFP)
The report also said that Biden, in his call with Netanyahu, was expected to press Netanyahu to utilize Israel’s latest achievements and show flexibility in efforts to conclude a ceasefire-hostage deal with Hamas in Gaza. However, Netanyahu, the report said, is convinced that only military pressure has yielded Hamas flexibility to date, and that now is not the time to take the foot off the gas.
“The president reaffirmed his commitment to Israel’s security against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis,” said the White House statement on the call.
“The president discussed efforts to support Israel’s defense against threats, including against ballistic missiles and drones, to include new defensive US military deployments,” it continued, without elaborating on these measures.
“Together with this commitment to Israel’s defense, the president stressed the importance of ongoing efforts to de-escalate broader tensions in the region.”
There was no immediate readout from the Prime Minister’s Office on the call, which the White House said Vice President and presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris also joined.
Benjamin Netanyahu in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, Thursday, July 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
Citing American officials, the Axios news site reported the US believes it will take Iran and its proxies several days to ready an attack, and was taking steps to be ready to help counter the assault as it did in October.
“We expect a few rough days,” one of the officials said.
According to the report, the Biden administration is worried it may now face greater difficulty in cobbling together a regional and international coalition to assist in thwarting the attack, as the killing of Haniyeh relates to the ongoing war in Gaza started by Hamas’s 7 massacres, for which Israel has faced intensive criticism.
The Iranian strike in April followed a suspected Israeli strike on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps generals in Damascus.
Times of Israel staff and agencies contributed to this report.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Robert H:
“Russian Defense Ministry: Ukrainian military losses reached 60,000 troops in July – Yemen Press Agency
These losses are confirmed and conservative. From other sources losses are in excess of 80,000 and that does not count the deaths from the wounded who die after or MIA’s.”
Crazy business!
https://en.ypagency.net/331295
RUSSIA/USA
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
See my substack below & I warn you again, there is NO avian H5N1, H5N2, H5N8 bird flu pandemic, none now, none coming, this is all FRAUD by our CDC, FDA, government, vaccine makers, Redfield knows
its an inside job; we have no evidence any H5N1, N2, N8 moved from birds to cows to humans, no human-to-human transmission; fake? yes, like for H1N1 2009, like COVID & use PCR for fake pandemic
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 1 |
So why would FDA give EUA for avian bird flu with no evidence that there is any human risk or human to human transmission risk? Why? Can they make it virulent? Yes, via gain of function type lab work because no virus can leap from one species to another e.g. birds to humans with the ability to infect readily and to transmit person to person efficiently…as Darwin said, we will need a ‘depth’ of time, say thousands of yes, but you can do it in the lab.
This is fear porn again to push deadly H5N1, H5N8 type Malone, Bourla, Bancel, Weissman et al. mRNA technology gene-based vaccines, using Emergency use authorizations (EUAs) etc. I tell you switch it off, only when folk like Yeadon, Couey, Risch, myself etc. tell you that there is an issue that you listen…never ever listen to anything the CDC, NIH, FDA, NIAID, SAGE UK, Health Canada, PHAC etc. tells you on public health or anything…these people showed you for COVID the fraudsters they were for they knew they were all lying…do not listen to your doctor about mRNA vaccine for bird flu…
Always the greatest moment when an American held hostage is freed even when Obama & Biden pays billions & places a bounty on our heads; this is a political stunt too as it will be used by the Harris
Biden Obama election team to give her cred; will even create hurricanes out of light rain so that Air Force One can be seen landing & Harris emerging on the scene; don’t forget the rapes killed girls
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 1 |
https://twitter.com/i/status/1818722104952685011
As I said, she is of Indian heritage to beg for money and black to beg for votes…
This is Harris’s real accomplishments, flooding US with illegals who raped and killed our women…girls…she wanted to flood us with illegals for future votes and help Obama transform America and look what they went and did….should we ask her why she did that? did she not know what would happen?
SLAY NEWS
———- Forwarded message ———
From: Slay News <mail@slaynews.com>
Date: Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 3:50 PM
Subject: 
Leaked German CDC Data Proves Covid Shots Are Killing People
To: Milan Sabioncello <sabioncello@gmail.com>
| The latest reports from Slay NewsLeaked German CDC Data Proves Covid Shots Are Killing PeopleExplosive unredacted data leaked from Germany’s equivalent of the U.S. CDC has confirmed that Covid mRNA shots are killing adults and children. Alarmingly, the leaked documents also reveal that the German government knew the injections were deadly before pushing them out for public use. Despite knowing the shots were harmful and ineffective, the government still forced citizens to comply with …READ MOREScientists Warn New ‘Neurological Emergency’ Spreading Among Covid-VaxxedA group of prominent Italian scientists is raising the alarm after discovering a new “neurological emergency” that is emerging among those who have been “vaccinated” with Covid mRNA shots.READ MOREFBI Still Doesn’t Know Trump Shooter Motive or Even How He Got Gun on RoofThe FBI claims it still hasn’t established what motivated gunman Thomas Matthew Crooks in his failed assassination attempt against President Donald Trump.READ MOREKamala Harris Is Still Close Friends with Radical Preacher Who Blamed America for 9/11Vice President Kamala Harris’s close relationship with a radical, anti-American pastor is facing scrutiny as Democrats rally behind her presidential bid.READ MOREMissouri Scores Victory Over Biden & Harris on Construction of Trump’s Border WallMissouri’s Republican Attorney General Andrew Bailey has just scored a major victory in the battle to secure America’s open Southern Border.READ MORERussia Agrees to Release Veteran Paul Whelan & WSJ Reporter Evan Gershkovich in Prisoner SwapRussia has agreed to release two Americans, Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and veteran Paul Whelan, in a prisoner exchange deal with the United States government, according to reports.READ MORETrump Shreds ‘Fake News’ Reporter during Live Interview, Crowd Goes WildPresident Donald Trump dropped the hammer on a rude “fake news network” reporter during an interview in front of a live audience.READ MORETrump: White House Currently Run by ‘Fascists, Communists, Marxists’President Donald Trump has warned that the White House is currently being run by a group of “fascists, communists,” and “Marxists.”READ MORETrump Vows to Eliminate Taxes on Social SecurityPresident Donald Trump has declared that he plans to eliminate taxes that seniors are forced to pay on their Social Security checks.READ MORERussia Legalizes Bitcoin Payments for International Trade to Counter SanctionsThe Russian government has just taken a significant step in bypassing global sanctions by passing new laws to allow businesses to use Bitcoin for international trade payments.READ MORENYC Rap Legend Chino XL Dies Suddenly at 50New York City hip-hop legend Chino XL has tragically died suddenly, his family has confirmed.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
———- Forwarded message ———
From: Evol News <mail@evol.news>
Date: Thu, Aug 1, 2024 at 5:06 PM
Subject: 
School Cannot Face Lawsuit for Administering COVID Vaccine to Child Without Parental Consent, Rules State Supreme Court – EVOL
To: <sabioncello@gmail.com>
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
TURKEY//this will hurt this country badly
After Campaigning On Free Natural Gas, Erdogan Hikes Prices By 38%
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Authored by Alex Kimani via OilPrice.com,
- Turkey’s state energy company BOTA? has raised natural gas prices by 38% for households and 33.1% for small industrial customers, effective August 1st.
- The price hike comes just over a year after President Erdogan promised free gas for households during his re-election campaign.
- Turkey’s heavy reliance on gas imports, particularly from Russia, has contributed to the country’s energy vulnerability.
Turkey’s state energy operator BOTA? Petroleum Pipeline Corporation has announced that it will increase natural gas prices for residential use by 38%, starting 1st August.
BOTA? will also increase gas prices to small to medium-sized industrial customers whose annual natural gas consumption is 300,000 cubic meters or less by 33.1%.
The company says it reached its decision “taking into account market conditions, market price stability, the Energy Market Regulatory Authority’s (EPDK) decisions regarding tariffs and changes in purchasing-operating expenses.”
Turkey largely relies on gas imports and is highly dependent on Russia, Azerbaijan, and Iran. The country also buys liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar, the U.S., Nigeria and Algeria.
According to data released by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey imported natural gas worth $4.54 billion in June, good for 18.2% of total imports.
According to EPDK energy regulator data, domestic natural gas production mainly in the Thrace region accounted for less than 1% of Turkey’s 60 bcm national consumption in 2021.
The natural gas price hike comes just over a year after Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan pledged to supply free gas to households during his re-election campaigns last year.
“We will provide free natural gas for household consumption up to 25 cubic meters monthly for one year,” Mr Erdogan said at the inauguration of the onshore natural gas port in the northern province of Zonguldak.
Turkey discovered Natural gas at the Sakarya field off the coast of Zonguldak in 2020, and at the adjacent Caycuma-1 field in 2023, with total volumes having since been estimated at 710 billion cubic meters (bcm).
Erdogan said Turkey’s Black Sea gas fields would initially produce 10 million cubic meters of gas per day before ramping up production to 40 million cubic meters per day.
“When we reach full capacity, we will be able to meet approximately 30 per cent of domestic consumption yearly from here,” Erdogan said.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Venezuela
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0833 UP 0.0047
USA/ YEN 148.99 DOWN 0.212 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15
GBP/USA 1.2743 UP 0.0016
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3881 UP .0000 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 00 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 27.05 PTS OR 0.92%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 359.45 PTS OR 2.08%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 2.06%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 359.45 PTS OR 2.08 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 27.05 PTS OR 0.92%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 2216.67 PTS OR 5.81%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2460.20
silver:$28.94
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.86 DOWN 35 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.833% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.944% DOWN 6 AND 4/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.039 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.611 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.157 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0911 UP 0.0126 OR 126 basis points
USA/Japan: 146.95 DOWN 2.238 OR YEN IS UP 224 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.8418 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0043 OR 43 BASIS pts to 1.3837
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1625 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1633)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.18 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.944…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 16 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.816% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.146 DOWN 13 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.915 DOWN 25 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2469.00
SILVER AT 11;30: 28.82
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 109.65 PTS OR 1.31%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 421.83 PTS OR 2.33%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 118.65 PTS OR 1.61 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 181.40 OR 1.67%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 838.61 PTS OR 2.55% PTS
WTI Oil price 73.69 12EST/
Brent Oil: 77.12 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.45 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 4/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1575 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.8415 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.035 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0913 UP 0.01264 OR 126 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2807 DOWN 0.0079 OR 79 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.850 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.930
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.64 DOWN 2.502 YEN UP 250 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3863 DOWN 0.0018//CDN dollar UP 18 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.73
Brent OIL: 76.96
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 19 BASIS pts to 3.795
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 16 BASIS PTS to 4.110%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 33 PTS AT 3.872
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.019 DOWN 12 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.99 DOWN 122 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.22 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.50 UP 0 AND 1/100 roubles
GOLD 2,428.85 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.40 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 612.88 PTS OR 1.52%
NASDAQ DOWN 449.54 PTS OR 2.38 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 24.14 UP 5.15 PTS OR 29.85%
GLD: $225,35 DOWN .52 OR 0.19%
SLV/ $26.04 UP .01 OR 0.038%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Market Ka-Mauling
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 04:00 PM
This was the week when – like Biden’s dementia – economic weakness became too much for the mainstream to ignore and while Powell hinted at cuts to come, the market demands more (again) and stocks won’t be satisfied until they get them.
Source: Bloomberg
“Growth scares” now dominate the narrative (maybe growth’s demise is not so ‘transitory’)…
Source: Bloomberg
…as Kamala overtakes Trump in the prediction markets…
Source: Bloomberg
The economic weakness prompted the market to bet large on bigger (and sooner) rate-cuts – now pricing in 116bps of cuts in 2024 (and 100bps more in 2025)…
Source: Bloomberg
If you feel like you’ve heard this story before, you have… twice!
Source: Bloomberg
…and neither time did things work out as the market had hoped…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that smashed Treasury yields lower on the week, with 2Y yields crashing almost 30bps today alone and down a stunning 50bps on the week!
Source: Bloomberg
Today was the biggest drop in 2Y yield since Dec 2023 (Powell pivot) and the biggest weekly drop since March 2023 (SVB collapse).
The entire curve (ex-30Y) is now below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
And the yield curve has disinverted (2s30s now at its steepest since July 2022)…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks did not love the dovishness as the ‘soft landing’ narrative morphed into ‘growth scare’ and ‘we are gonna need a bigger boat’-gull of rate-cuts. Small Caps (the most sensitive to the economy) collapsed this week, but while they were the worst of the bunch, all the US majors puked bigly…
This was the Russell 2000’s worst week since March 2023 (SVB collapse), and the fourth weekly drop for Nasdaq in a row.
The S&P 500 found support at its 100DMA today…
But NASDAQ broke below its 100DMA…
Magnificent 7 stocks are now down an incredible $2.3 trillion market cap from their record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
“Most Shorted” stocks were clubbed like a baby seal this week, erasing all of early July’s short-squeeze…
Source: Bloomberg
The options markets shit the bed with VIX exploding to almost 30 at its peak today (highest since Oct 2022) and VVIX smashing above the critical scare level of 100 (to its highest since March 2022)…
Source: Bloomberg
And the “correlation 1” move in markets this week sent implied correlation dramatically higher…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dovishly tanked this week, back to July’s lows…
Source: Bloomberg
..as Yen soared (carry unwinds) to its strongest close against the greenback since January…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin had a tough week, tumbling back from $70k to test down to $62k…
Source: Bloomberg
…but the entire crypto space was hit hard this week, with Solana the worst…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold tested up near record highs once again before being battered lower today (but was higher on the week)…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil prices plunged to two-month lows as the ‘growth scare’ weakness trumped MidEast geopol risk premium…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, is it time for stocks to catch down to ‘economic’ reality?
Source: Bloomberg
How far will the world’s central banks allow stocks to fall before the liquidity firehose is unleashed?
Source: Bloomberg
…well it is an election year (for Dems).
MORNING TRADING/NON FARM PAYROLL
HUGE MISS!! now in a recession!
Recession Triggered: Payrolls Miss Huge, Up Just 114K As Soaring Unemployment Rate Activates “Sahm Rule” Recession
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 08:50 AM
In our payrolls preview last night we asked “just how bad will it get“, and we got the answer moments ago when the BLS reported that in July, the US added just 114K payrolls, a huge miss to expectations of 175K and also a huge drop from the downward revised June print of 206K, now magically slashed to just 179K. This was the lowest print since December 2020 (at least prior to even more revisions)…
… and a 3 sigma miss to the median estimate of 175K.
Of course, these being numbers published by the corrupt Biden, pardon Kamala Department of Goalseeked bullshit, the previous months were revised lower as usual, with May revised down by 2,000, from +218,000 to +216,000, and the change for June was revised down by 27,000, from +206,000 to +179,000. With these revisions, employment in May and June combined is 29,000 lower than previously reported. It gets better because as shown in the next chart shows, 5 of the past 6 months have now been revised lower.
But while we have long known that the real payrolls number is far worse than reported, what was the true shock in today’s “data” is the long overdue admission that the US is effectively in a recession because as the rule named for pro-Biden/Kamala socialist Cluadia Sahm indicates, a recession has now been triggered. The rule, for those who don’t remember is that a recession is effectively already underway if the unemployment rate (based on a three-month moving average) rises by half a percentage point from its low of the past year. And that’s what just happened, with the unemployment rate surging 0.6% from the year’s low.
Developing
Stocks, Crude, & Bond Yields Plunge As ‘Growth Scare’ Sparks Surge In Rate-Cut Hopes
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 08:50 AM
Just as we warned earlier in the week, the macro playbook has shifted to “bad is bad and good is good” as ‘growth scare’ narratives now dominate the set-in-stone rate-cut scenarios.
This morning’s payrolls data was ‘bad news’ and so we see rate-cut expectations explode higher with over four full cuts now priced in for 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
This prompted a massive plunge in Treasury bond yields…
…especially at the short-end with 2Y yields dropping a stunning 29bps, back below 4.00%)…
…but stocks don’t like the ‘not-soft-landing’ narrative…
Crude oil prices also plunged…
But gold extended the week’s gains (as the dollar dovishly limped lower)…
USDJPY extended its decline (yen strengthening versus the dollar)…
…now at its most oversold since 1997…
How long before FedSpeak will drift dovish and adjust to the market’s new narrative (remember The Fed ‘DOTS’ are still at 2 cuts in 2024)
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
‘Growth Scare’ Narrative Builds As US Factory Orders Plunge Most Since COVID Lockdowns In June
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 12:10 PM
After this week’s ‘soft’ survey data signaled serious ugliness in the US manufacturing economy…
Source: Bloomberg
…this morning we get ‘hard’ data confirmation as US Factory Orders plunged 3.3% MoM in June (the biggest MoM drop since COVID lockdowns), dragging orders down 3.6% YoY (also the worst since COVID lockdowns)…
Source: Bloomberg
The final durable goods orders print was worse than the initial – down a shocking 6.7% MoM…
Source: Bloomberg
All of which is adding to the ‘growth scare’ narrative that has been quietly accelerating…
Source: Bloomberg
How long before The Fed is forced into dovish retreat (adjusting its two-cuts-by-year-end forecast to the market’s four cuts!).
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
another sign that the economy is in big trouble
(zerohedge)
Wayfair Execs Warn Home Goods Slowdown Mirrors 2008 GFC
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 10:00 AM
Increasing concerns over a US economic slowdown (or just a reminder a hard landing is still possible) triggered a broad selloff in global stocks overnight and into the US premarket session.
Investors’ anxieties soared late Thursday afternoon following dismal earnings reports from Amazon and Intel. Corporate earnings have so far indicated that US consumers are struggling, and it seems only a matter of time before Goldman Sachs advises clients to short stocks with the highest exposure to high-income consumers, already telling clients to short low– and mid-income consumer stocks in recent months.
Highlighting comments from Wayfair CEO Niraj Shah, an earnings press release on Thursday stated, “Customers remain cautious in their spending on the home, and our credit card data suggests that the category correction now mirrors the magnitude of the peak to trough decline the home furnishing space experienced during the great financial crisis.”
In an interview with CNBC, Wayfair CFO Kate Gulliver warned, “We see declines that are similar to the declines that we saw in that 2008 to 2010 period and I think what that speaks to is that the category has been going through just a massive correction, a correction that we’ve previously only seen during a GDP recession.”
Gulliver continued, “Obviously we’re not technically in a GDP recession as a country right now, and so this is somewhat a unique thing to this category … we’ve seen that kind of recession-like correction in the category over the last few years.”
Separately, Goldman’s Scott Feiler told clients this AM, “The big topic all of a sudden the “last few days” is around the health of the consumer.”
Feiler said, “The slowdown has broadened out and picked up further in June/July, led by a lot of bellwethers. That alone should not be a huge debate. The debate should be intensity and whether it’s priced in.”
As for Wayfair’s second-quarter earnings report, Goldman’s Eric Sheridan said, “Wayfair produced disappointing topline results as revenue declined nearly -2% YoY with demand softening through the quarter despite a successful Way Day in early May (up DD% vs. 2023) as consumers proved increasingly price sensitive and pulled back further outside of promotional events.”
Sheridan said, “We reiterate our Neutral rating and reduce our price target from $67 to $54 mainly from lower operating estimates.”
Meanwhile, darkening clouds continue to gather over the US economy following this AM’s payroll report, which shows a big slowdown in employment and a higher unemployment rate, so much so that recession risks are rising.
END
Wall Street Begs Fed To Panic: Goldman Sees 3 Consecutive Rate Cuts, JPM Hopes Two For 50bps, Citi Even Crazier
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 12:45 PM
It didn’t take long after today’s dismal jobs report to spark what Wall Street hopes will be a Fed panic. Indeed, just moments after a catastrophic jobs report which “nobody’ could have possibly predicted, well some notable exceptions, some of the biggest Wall Street analysts are already tearing up the soft landing playbook they were all pitching just, well, 24 hours ago and are urging the Fed to not just cut but panic while it’s doing it.
We start with Goldman which begins by commenting on today’s jobs report, and says that “the softening in labor market conditions has now gone beyond the amount that was welcome.” As a result, Goldman now expects “an initial string of consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, November, and December (vs. our previous forecast of cuts every other meeting)” or in other words 3 cuts in 2024 instead of just 2. While Goldman’s chief economist Hatzius, who for much of the past year was banging the table on just how strong the economy is (and has just flipflopped) notes that “the slowdown in job growth in the July report likely overstates the decline in the underlying trend, if the August employment report is also weak and confirms the slowdown in job growth, then a 50bp cut would become likely at the September meeting.“
But if Goldman’s 3 rate cuts is notable, then JPM’s new call for consecutive 50bps cuts is downright remarkable: that’s right, JPM chief economist Michael Feroli, also a huge bull until, well apparently this morning, decided to upstage Goldman and went a step further, predicting rate cuts in September and November, and not just any rate cuts but double, or 50bps, followed by quarter-point reductions at every subsequent meeting. And the punchline: Feroli parroted what we said earlier…
Fed now forced to cut and there is little chance it will wait 2 months. How soon until the emergency meeting. VIX 30 and we get one next week
·
353.4K Views
… and said there’s “a strong case to act” before the next meeting on Sept. 18. Fed Chair Jerome Powell may not “want to add more noise to what has already been an event-filled summer,” however, he wrote. But if the Fed does want to panic, so be it.
Moving on to Citi economists, who were already among the most aggressive in calling for the Fed to cut interest rates this year, said they expect half-point rate cuts in September and November and a quarter-point cut in December, having previously predicted quarter-point cuts at all three meetings. The Fed will then reduce rates by a quarter point at each meeting until mid-2025, bringing the policy band to 3%-3.25%, Veronica Clark and Andrew Hollenhorst predicted.
Finally, Bank of America’s chief economist Michael Gapen, who’d been a holdout for rate cuts beginning in December, said he is also now looking for the first move in September.
The good news is that none of the above matters: like faithful windsocks, all of the so-called strategists above are useless and merely chase momentum. The question is what the market thinks will happen, and as the chart below shows, interest-rate swaps show that traders see a more-than-70% chance of half-point move in September, and are pricing in a total of about 115 basis points of reductions by year-end…
… expecting, or rather pushing risk off so far that the Fed has no choice but to panic.
end
Strong indicator that the economy is going sour!
(zerohedge)
Car Repos Rise 23% YoY
FRIDAY, AUG 02, 2024 – 01:45 PM
Authored by Martin Armstrong via ArmstrongEconomics.com,
The private debt crisis is becoming apparent in America after car repossessions jumped 23% during the first half of 2024. Data shows that 1.6 million Americans will have their car repossessed by the bank before the end of the year, a slight increase from the 1.5 million autos repossessed in 2023 and a drastic upturn from the 1.1 million in 2021.
Obviously, the cost of purchasing a car have drastically risen with inflation, interest hikes, and supply chain shortages. Americans simply cannot afford new autos and car dealerships can do nothing to entice purchases. New car inventory in the US rose 36% this year, close to February 2021 levels before the supply chain crisis put a dent in imports. Yet, the average list price of a new car is $49,096 and far more than the average American can afford. The average new vehicle will sit in a dealer’s lot for 65 days, a 41% annual increase.
Dealerships are hardly asking for a downpayment these days unless someone has horrid credit. Even putting a few grand down will only take off about $20 per monthly payment.
The average new car costs about $735 monthly based on data from Experian, and $523 monthly on used models.
The average American simply is not educated in finance. Autos are behind mortgages in the largest share of personal household debt and there is a portion of the population who do not understand what they can actually afford.
The average American now borrows around $40,634 for new vehicles and $26,073 for used vehicles. About 9.2% of all consumer debt is through autos alone.
There was that viral story from April of a woman purchasing a Chevy Tahoe for $80,000 – without factoring in the interest on all household vehicles. Her husband purchased 2020 GMC Sierra 1500 AT4 for $78,000 in August 2022 and she simply could not understand why the payments on the truck were more than on the Tahoe. Well, the husband’s 14% rate on the vehicle placed their monthly payment or the truck $1,600. I recalled reading comments suggesting the family simply let the bank repo one of the cars as if that could be a valid option for personal finance.
Cox Automotive believes the trend of repossessing cars will increase into 2025 when they anticipate 1.7 million cars being repossessed. As of Q1 2024, US household debt stood at $1.77 trillion; $12.44 trillion held in mortgage debt, $1.62 trillion in autos, $1.12 trillion in credit card debt, and $543 billion in other forms. Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, and others recently reported a stunning $4,139,000,000 loss in unrecoverable debt.
The banks will come after their assets if a payment is missed, with some only waiting 30 days after a missed payment to seize property. They may then ask for full payment to return the car which is simply not happening in these situations. While there are some who cannot compute their monthly payment, others are now living paycheck-to-paycheck and are one large bill or missed paycheck away from losing their shirts. Then we have agencies telling the public across Build Back Better nations that they will soon need to purchase an EV to adhere to the climate emergency. Cheaper alternatives from China have been slapped with 100% tariffs, and there are no alternatives.
Governments are do nothing to assist this growing problem as the ultimate goal is to eliminate private car ownership under the premise of the Great Reset.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
NEWT GINGRICH
SWAMP NEWS
KING REPORT
| The King Report August 2, 2024 Issue 7297 | Independent View of the News |
| On a 5-4 vote, the Bank of England cut its benchmark rate 25bps to 5%. The BoE gave no indication when or if it might reduce rates again. https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-report/2024/august-2024@FixTheFed: The Fed purchased more than $87 Billion in US Treasury securities in July alone. Why did the Powell Fed reduce “QT”? So it could purchase more securities from Yellen’s Treasury. The two work in tandem to monetize debt. Why won’t inflation go down more? See chart below.https://x.com/FixTheFed/status/1818819385814868300WSJ: September Rate Cut Would Thrust Fed into Brutal Election CampaignBy opening the door wider to an interest-rate cut in September, the Federal Reserve is on a crash course with the presidential election. For a central bank that judiciously aspires to stay above the fray of partisan politics, confronting a potential policy shift around election time amounts to a lose-lose…. Trump allies have signaled that they will turn up the political heat on Powell if he moves ahead with a rate cut in September. They fear it could boost sentiment and hand Democrats a triumphant talking point about the economy… https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cut-inflation-politics-a6e527deUS Initial Jobless Claims rose to 249k, the highest level since August 2023. 236k was consensus. Continuing Claims 1.877m, 1.851m expected, prior 1.851mBLS: Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.3 percent in the second quarter of 2024, (1.8% exp.) the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today, as output increased 3.3 percent and hours worked increased 1.0 percent. (All quarterly percent changes in this release are seasonally adjusted annualized rates.) From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7 percent. (See table A1.)… Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2024 (1.7% exp.) reflecting a 3.3-percent increase in hourly compensation and a 2.3-percent increase in productivity. Unit labor costs increased 0.5 percent over the last four quarters, the lowest rate since the third quarter of 2019, when the measure also increased 0.5 percent. (See tables A1 and 2.)…https://www.bls.gov/news.release/prod2.nr0.htm@BobEUnlimited: Today’s US productivity numbers suggested growth at 2.3%, relative to real GDP at 2.8%. It’s so strong because the BLS is plugging in a collapse in hours worked, which is inconsistent with the reporting from the actual businesses. The reality is likely much weaker:https://x.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1818995239501087186“Near Stalling of Production” – US Manufacturing Surveys Collapsed in JulyS&P Global US Manufacturing PMI falls to 49.6 in July, dropping into contraction for the first time since Dec 2023. ISM Manufacturing PMI plunged to 46.8 (48.8 exp) – weakest since Nov 2023 (near post-COVID lockdown lows)… ISM Prices Paid rose (to 52.9) while New Orders tumbled(to 47.9)and Employment puked [to 43.4] (the lowest since COVID lockdowns)…https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/near-stalling-production-us-manufacturing-surveys-collapsed-julyESUs opened higher on Wednesday night due to Meta. They continued to rally until they got near 5600. ESUs hit a peak of 5600.25 at 9:45 ET. ESUs had a 45-handle range until they broke lower at 10:45 ET. ESUs then tumbled, probably on recession angst, until they hit a daily low of 5444.75 at 14:45 ET.The last-hour manipulation took ESUs to 5485.75 at 16:00 ET, a 41-point manipulation!After the close, Amazon reported 1.30 EPS, 1.03 exp., $140B Rev; $148.63B exp. AMZN sank 7%.WSJ: Amazon shares slipped Thursday after it projected weaker-than-expected revenue growth and said it would continue to ratchet up spending to meet anticipated demand for artificial-intelligence services. The company’s total sales rose 10% from a year earlier to $148 billion during the three-month period ending in June. Its profit was $13.5 billion. Its sales were in line with analyst expectations, while its profit was higher than predicted. https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/amazon-amzn-q2-earnings-report-2024-8665256bAfter the close, Apple reported 1.40 EPS, 1.34 exp., $85.78B Rev, $84.38B exp. Apple rose modestly.WSJ: Apple’s iPhone Sales Slide, but Investors Still Expect AI RallyCompany is preparing to release ‘Apple Intelligence’ in the fall, which investors hope will lead users to upgrade their phones https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-aapl-q3-earnings-report-2024-5e3eb3aeIntel plunged as much as 20% in after-hour trading on -.38 EPS, +.10 exp.; and $12.8B Rev.@Convertbond: When you see a sector like the Semiconductors, the hottest of all last 12 months, up 7% and down 7% in 24 hrs, this is a classic signal.Positive aspects of previous sessionThe US 10-year yield fell below 4%; but it was due to recession angst.Negative aspects of previous sessionAfter an early rally, ESUs and stocks sank on recession angst.ESUs had 155.50 point reversal!The US stock market might be in a bear market, despite expected Fed rate cuts!Ambiguous aspects of previous sessionWill a US recession be the October Surprise?First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: UpPivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]:Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5566.16; 5410.42J6 Bombshell: Secret Service got intel on ‘high potential’ for violence but didn’t tell agentsHomeland Inspector General report urged changes to Secret Service training, communication three months before July 13 Trump assassination attempt exposed additional flaws…he report also found that the Secret Service did not properly sweep the DNC headquarters ahead of Vice President-elect Harris’ visit that resulted in her motorcade driving within 20 feet of a pipe bomb…https://justthenews.com/government/security/hldinspector-general-report-secret-service-highlights-j6-security-failuresReports indicate Kamala Harris has chosen PA Gov. Shapiro to be her VP.NBC’s @akarl_smith: Gov. Shapiro cancels weekend fundraisers in the HamptonsFed Balance Sheet: -$27.06B, MBS -$14.026B, Treausry -$10.11B; Reserves at the Fed: -$15.061BHezbollah launched a rocket barrage against Israel on Thursday. War is imminent.Today – Barring a profoundly unexpected NFP, the July Employment Report should have little effect. The market expects a rate cut at the next FOMC Meeting (September 18). Team Harris wants a good report; and the trend for over a year has been for BLS toadies to report better-than-reality NFP and revise it lower in the ensuing month.The bloom is off the US equity bubble. Real sellers are in the market, and they are dumping stocks on recession angst. Institutions and operators are not euchred by looming Fed rate cuts like most traders are. The whales know that stocks sink with the advent of recession – despite Fed rate cuts. NQUs are -120.00; ESUs are -25.25; and USUs are +3/32 at 21:25 ET.Expected economic data: June NFP 178k, Mfg. -7k, Rate 4.1%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 3.7% y/y, Workweek 34.3; Labor Force Participation Rate 62.6%; June Factory Orders -3.1%; June Durable Orders -6.6%; Expected earnings: XOM 2.05, CVX 2.93S&P Index 50-day MA: 5432; 100-day MA: 5288; 150-day MA: 5154; 200-day MA: 4975DJIA 50-day MA: 39,385; 100-day MA: 39,070; 150-day MA: 38,757; 200-day MA: 37,741(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)S&P 500 Index (5399.22 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time framesMonthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4796.32 triggers a sell signalWeekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5379.87 triggers a sell signalDaily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5617.45 triggers a buy signalHourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5500.18 triggers a buy signal@JayneZirkle: Rasmussen: President Trump Has Survived The “Obama Bounce” New Data Shows@Rasmussen_Pollhttps://x.com/JayneZirkle/status/1819046124889514048@PhilipWegmann: Sen JD Vance reacts to Trump comments (Kamala’s ethnicity) telling reporters, “What he said I thought was hysterical. I think he pointed out the fundamental chameleon-like nature of Kamala Harris.” More from Vance to reporters on his plane in Arizona: “She was in Georgia, and she put on a southern accent for a Georgia audience. She grew up in Vancouver! What the hell is going on here? She is not who she pretends to be.”Trump in PA on Wednesday night @TrumpWarRoom: The contrast could not be more stark—on the one hand, you have a Radical Left puppet candidate who is FAKE, FAKE, FAKE, and on the other hand, you have a president who will FIGHT, FIGHT, FIGHT for America.https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1818789211488805338@mazemoore: Well look at this. A few years ago, CNN did an entire segment on Kamala’s Indian heritage. They even had an Indian woman do the reporting. https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1818789729413820734@TheInsiderPaper: DONALD TRUMP IN PA RALLY: “Unlike [Kamala] I cannot be bought, and I cannot be controlled, I have no interest in that. My only loyalty is to you the people.”Peter Schweitzer, who wrote books on Clinton and Biden family corruption, has stated that Kamala Harris was a very corrupt prosecutor, and he has the receipts. Trump is starting to lay the foundation for revealing Harris’s corruption.@peterschweizer: Kamala Harris as a long history as a corrupt prosecutor. I don’t use that word lightly. Mayor Willie Brown helped get her elected as San Francisco District Atty. because the current DA, Terence Hallinan was pursuing legal cases against his friends and donors. When Harris beat Hallinan, she dropped those cases or plead them out for reduced sentences. Also, San Francisco during her tenure was the only major city that did not prosecute priests for sexual abuse. Hallinan had been pursuing these cases as well and had obtained an 800-page internal document concerning reports of abuse. Victim groups wanted the report redacted and released to the public, which he planned to do. Harris, when she took over, “disappeared” that document and didn’t pursue legal prosecution of abusers. Note: law firms who were representing the church in SF were among her largest donors when she ran for office. All of this is laid out in great detail in my book “Profiles in Corruption.”@nicksortor: Kamala Harris just spent 30 mins sitting in her car preparing to READ “remarks” from a binder in front of the camera. And of course, she REFUSED to take questions. She hasn’t taken a single question since she was installed as nominee. https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1819110598954590262@charliekirk11: This is a growing issues. Kamala Harris delivers prepared remarks and refuses to field questions from the media. She has yet to take a single question from a reporter since being installed as the Democrat Nominee. She’s the sitting VP. She cannot evade scrutiny forever.https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/18191747883904410059/11 mastermind KSM and two other terrorists awaiting trial on Guantanamo Bay strike plea deals“In exchange for removal of the death penalty as a possible punishment, these three Accused have agreed to plead guilty to all of the charged offenses, including the murder of the 2,976 people listed in the charge sheet,” said a letter signed by Rear Adm. Aaron C. Rugh, chief prosecutor for the OMC, and sent to victims’ families Wednesday…https://nypost.com/2024/07/31/us-news/9-11-mastermind-ksm-and-two-other-terrorists-awaiting-trial-on-guantanamo-bay-strike-plea-deals/Lawmakers slam Biden admin plea deal that spares death penalty for 9/11 mastermind and two accomplices: ‘National disgrace’ https://nypost.com/2024/07/31/us-news/lawmakers-slam-biden-administration-plea-deal-that-spares-death-penalty-for-9-11-mastermind-and-two-other-terrorists-national-disgrace/@RNCResearch: REPORTER: “President Trump has said repeatedly that he could’ve gotten the hostages out without giving anything in exchange…” BIDEN: “Why didn’t he do it when he was president?”(Two of the three Americans were wrongfully detained during Biden’s presidency)https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1819048686913003848Biden claims he knows what the families of Americans wrongfully detained in foreign countries have been through because he’s “lost family.”https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1819048344951398722Democrats looking to erase and rewrite Harris’ past hard-left policy positionshttps://trib.al/ONSh7sWGOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Whistleblower tells me Secret Service Acting Director Rowe personally directed cuts to the USSS agents who do threat assessments for events. Whistleblower says those agents were NOT present in Butler – and some of them had warned of security problems for months. | |
GREG HUNTER
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