GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $23.75 TO $2403.40
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0,92 TO $27.09
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2406.80
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $27.22
Bitcoin morning price:$51,573 down 11,341 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $53,446 down 9468
down 557
dollars//
Platinum price closing DOWN $49.80 TO $909.35
Palladium price; DOWN $41.30 TO $850.25
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 0 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//august to august
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3378.31 UP 61.54 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,390.26 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//AUG 1 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1,893,32 DOWN 25.19 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,195.80 DOWN 44.31 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.264.61 EUROS PER OZ//AUGUST 1 //.2024)
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END
EXCH: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,425.700000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/02/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 08/06/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 17
190 H BMO CAPITAL 137
323 C HSBC 21
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 37
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 13
661 C JP MORGAN 550 220
661 H JP MORGAN 124
709 C BARCLAYS 25
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 11 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 23 4
905 C ADM 16
TOTAL: 601 601
MONTH TO DATE: 17,056
JPMorgan stopped 349/601
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 601 NOTICES FOR 60.100 OZ or 1.869 TONNES
total notices so far: 17,056 contracts for 1,705,600 Oz (53.051 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 131 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 635,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 539 for 2.795 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.92 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.110 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV//
// INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 458.851 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 861 CONTRACTS TO 153,135 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH SOME LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.01 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY’S TRADING//RAID.SOME OF OUR OI
LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANIED OUR HUMONGOUS NET GAIN OF 3855 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING FRIDAY’S RAID. WE, AGAIN HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE AS WELL AS SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MENTIONED ABOVE. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 2835 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 723 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE,
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE DEMAND FOR SILVER WAS JUST TOO GREAT FOR OUR BANKERS TO CONTAIN AND THUS THE STEEP RISE IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 723 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.01) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 3694 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 2835 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 325,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 3.365 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 3.365 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 723 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL removed 161 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 DAYS, total 4335 contracts: OR 21.675 MILLION OZ (1445 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 21.675 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 21.675 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A DOOZY FOR ISSUANCE.
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1020 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 2835 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.005 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 325,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 3.365 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 3694 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 723 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE MAJOR PORTION OF THE HIGH COMEX OI GAIN DESPITE THE TINY LOSS IN PRICE//// ZERO SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (723) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 131 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 655,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4812 OI CONTRACTS TO 507,517 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 731 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (4812 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $9.55 IN PRICE/FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1400 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE GUYS TOOK IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF GOLD IN LONDON.
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 65.340 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.55 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 5634 OI CONTRACTS (19.797 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1835 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 508,248
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5634 CONTRACTS WITH 4812 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUMONGOUS SIZED 10,446 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5634 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1835 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (10,446 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 4861 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5634 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1400 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE BOYS NEEDED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL GOLD ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND AS CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUED ON THE GOLD BUYING SPREE!
//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO: /AUGUST 65.340 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1835 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 14598 CONTRACTS OF 1,459,800 OZ OR 45.405 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4866 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 45.405 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 45.405 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.278% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 45.405 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S SIMILAR TO SILVER.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 859 CONTRACTS OI TO 153,1355 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2835 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 2835 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2835 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 859 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2835 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3694 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 17.524 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR TINY $.01 LOSS IN PRICE
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.64 PTS OR 1.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 247.15 PTS OR 1.46% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 4451.28 OR 12.40%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .381%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,1171 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0888/ Oil DOWN TO 71.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.37 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 4,812 CONTRACTS TO 507,517 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $9.55 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING//RAID. WE LOST A HUGE NUMBER OF SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS PANICKED EARLY IN THE SESSION AND COVERED AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THEN AFTER LONDON WAS PUT TO BED, THE CROOKS INITIATED THEIR STUPID RAID.
OUR LONDONERS BOUGHT MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AND THEN TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AT THE END OF THE DAY.. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY T PLUS ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A GIGANTIC SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 10,446 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC 10,446 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,446 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5,634 CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,446 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD SIZED LOSS OF 4812 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR FALL IN PRICE OF $9.55/FRIDAY COMEX RAID. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1835 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (65.340 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 65.378 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $9.55 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED T.A.S. LIQUIDATION FRIDAY/COMEX
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 17,524 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1700 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING: 65.340 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.340 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.55
WE HAVE REMOVED 731 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5634 CONTRACTS OR 563,400 OZ (17,524
TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY 337,292 contracts//strong
//speculators have left the gold arena
AUGUST 5 AUGUST GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE AUG 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | nil . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 601 notice(s) 60,100 OZ 1.869 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3961 contracts 395,100 OZ 12.289 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 17,056 notices 1,705,600 oz 53.051 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS nil oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 4552 contracts having LOST 5994 contracts.
We had 5982 contracts served on Thursday, so we lost 14 contracts or 1400 oz was ferried over to London via the exchange for physical route to take immediate delivery over in London. Gold was needed badly in London to satisfy central banks
SEPT. LOST 64 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5295 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER GAINED 153 CONTRACTS UP TO 55,111 CONTRACTS
We had 601 contracts filed for today representing 60,100 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 550 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 601 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 349 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,056) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of August 4552( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (601 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,100,700 OZ OR 65.340 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (17056 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (4552 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (601) x 100 oz which equals 2,100,700 oz (65.340 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.340 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,661,466.962 oz 51.67 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,868,105.099 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 8,214,323.287 ( 255.49 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,653,782.712 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,552857 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 203.82 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 5/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE AUG 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 0 OZ oz . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,081,628.040 oz ASAHI Loomis |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 131 CONTRACT(S) (655,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 114 contracts (0.570 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 559 Contracts (2.755 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits:
i) into ASAHI 600,227.13 oz
ii) Into Loomis: 481,405.910 oz
total customer deposit 1,081,628.910 oz oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134,771million oz/303.804million or 44.59%
adjustment:1;
Manfra: dealer to customer 579,215.300 oz
customer withdrawals: 0
total withdrawal: nil 0z
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.019 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 302.723 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 245 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 59 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 6 NOTICES SERVED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 65 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 325,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX. SEEMS GOLD IS SCARCE AS THE COMEX BUT NOT SILVER.
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 1294 CONTRACTS TO 101,859. SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 88 CONTRACT AND THUS WE HAVE 124 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 131 for 30,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 109,131 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 539 x 5,000 oz = 2.755 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 245) and the number of notices served upon today 131 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month: 559 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (245)x number of notices served upon today minus (131)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.365 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 3.065 million oz.
There are 70.019 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD
AUGUST 5 WITH GOLD DOWN $23.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 845.47 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 5//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.92//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.110 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ
JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 460.961 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
Dr Daniel Lacalle…..
Central Banks Purchase Gold To Offset Their Own Monetary Destruction
SATURDAY, AUG 03, 2024 – 04:20 PM
Authored by Daniel Lacalle via The Mises Institute,
Why is the price of gold rising if the global economy is not in recession and inflation is allegedly under control? This is a question often heard in investment circles, and I will try to answer it.
We must begin by clarifying the question. It is true that inflation is slowly decreasing, but we cannot say that it is under control. Let us remember that the latest CPI data in the United States was 3% annualized and that in the eurozone it is 2.6%, with eight countries publishing data above 3%, including Spain.
This is why central banks need to give the impression of hawkishness and maintain rates or lower them very cautiously. However, monetary policy is far from being restrictive. Money supply growth is picking up, the ECB maintains its “anti-fragmentation mechanism,” and the Federal Reserve continues to inject money through the liquidity window. We can say, without a doubt, that monetary policy is beyond accommodative.
At the end of this article, the price of gold is above $2,400 an ounce, up 16.5% between January and July 19, 2024. In the same period, gold has performed better than the S&P 500, the Stoxx 600 in Europe, and the MSCI Global. In fact, over the past five years, gold has outperformed not only the European and global stock markets, but also the S&P 500, with only the Nasdaq surpassing the precious metal. This is a period of alleged recovery and strong expansion of the stock markets. On the one hand, the market is discounting the central banks’ continued accommodative and expansionary policies, even possible high debt monetization, given the unsustainable deficits in the United States and developed countries. That is, the market assumes that the Federal Reserve and the ECB will not be able to maintain the reduction of their balance sheets in the face of rising debt and public spending in many economies. As a result, gold protects many investors against the erosion of the currency’s purchasing power, i.e., inflation, without the extreme volatility of Bitcoin. If the market discounts further monetary expansion to cover the accumulated deficits, it is normal for the investor to seek protection with gold, which has centuries of history as an alternative to fiduciary money and offers a low-volatility hedge against currency debasement.
Another important factor is the central bank’s purchase of gold. JP Morgan is credited with the phrase “gold is money and everything else is credit.” All the world’s central banks include treasury bonds from countries that serve as global reserve currencies in their asset base. This allows central banks around the world to try to stabilize their currencies. When we read that a central bank buys or sells dollars or euros, it is not making transactions with physical currency but with government bonds. Hence, as the market price of government bonds has fallen 7% between 2019 and 2024, many of these central banks are facing latent losses from a slump in the value of their assets. What is the best way to strengthen a central bank’s balance sheet, thereby diversifying and reducing exposure to fiat currencies? Purchase gold.
The rising purchases of gold by central banks are an essential factor justifying the recent increase in demand for the precious metal. Central banks, especially in China and India, are trying to reduce their dependence on the dollar or the euro to diversify their reserves. However, this does not mean full de-dollarization. Far from it.
According to the World Gold Council, central banks have accelerated their gold purchases to more than 1,000 tonnes per year in 2022 and 2023. This means that monetary authorities account for almost a quarter of the annual demand for gold during a period when supply and production have not grown significantly. The ratio of output to demand stands at 0.9 in June 2024, according to Morgan Stanley.
Global official gold reserves have increased by 290 net tonnes in the first quarter of 2024, the highest since 2000, according to the World Gold Council, 69% higher than the five-year quarterly average (171 metric tonnes).
The People’s Bank of China and the Central Bank of India are the biggest buyers as they aim to balance their reserves, adding more gold to reduce loss-making exposure to government securities. According to Metals Focus, Refinitiv GFMS, and the World Gold Council, China has been increasing its gold purchases for seventeen months, and since 2022, it has shot up its reserves by 16%, coinciding with the increase in global polarization and the trade wars.
That does not mean full de-dollarization, as the People’s Bank of China has 4.6% of its total reserves in gold. US Treasury bonds are the most important asset, accounting for more than 50% of the Chinese central bank’s assets. However, its goal is to raise gold reserves to at least 14%, according to local media. Thus, it would imply a significant annual purchase of gold for years.
India’s central bank increased its gold reserves by 19 metric tonnes during the first quarter. Other central banks that are diversifying and buying more gold than ever are the National Bank of Kazakhstan, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the Central Bank of Qatar, the Central Bank of Turkey, and the Central Bank of Oman, according to the sources cited above. During this period, both the Czech National Bank and the National Bank of Poland increased their gold reserves in Europe, reaching the highest level since 2021. In these cases, the aim is to balance the exposure in the asset base with more gold and less eurozone government bonds.
The goal of this central bank trend is to increase the weight of an asset that does not fluctuate with the price of government bonds. It is not about de-dollarization but about balancing the balance sheet from the volatility created by their own misguided expansionary policies. For years, the policy of central banks has been to reduce their gold holdings, and now they must come back to logic and rebalance after suffering years of latent losses on their government bond holdings. In fact, one could say that the world’s central banks anticipate their own widespread erosion of the purchasing power of reserve currencies due to the saturation of fiscal and monetary policies, and for that reason, they need more gold.
After years of thinking that money can be printed without limits and without creating inflation, monetary authorities are trying to return to logic and have more gold on their balance sheets. At the same time, many expected that the trade war between China and the United States and global polarisation would be reversed in the Biden years, and the opposite has happened. It has accelerated. Now, the latent losses in the sovereign bond asset portfolio are leading all these central banks to buy more gold and try to protect themselves from new bursts of inflationary pressures.
In an era of high correlation between assets and perpetual monetary destruction, gold serves as a low volatility, low correlation, and strong long-term return addition to any prudent portfolio.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
As promised to you: China never stopped buying gold
(Jan Nieuwenhuijs)
PBoC’s Gold Conduit Revealed: Chinese Central Bank Did Not Stop Buying Gold In May
SUNDAY, AUG 04, 2024 – 11:20 PM
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins
This article is an analysis of how the Chinese central bank (PBoC) buys gold in London from Western bullion banks. Because the bullion banks take care of the gold transport for the PBoC, the shipments from London to Beijing are disclosed in UK customs data. The customs data reveals that the PBoC continued to buy gold in May — when it communicated to the market it discontinued buying — at a rate of 53 tonnes. The PBoC stated it stopped buying to dampen the gold price so it could acquire more gold.
Several months ago, I discovered that supply in the Chinese gold market was outstripping demand. During my investigation of this anomaly, I found circumstantial evidence that led me to conclude the surplus is imported in 400-ounce bars from the United Kingdom, and surreptitiously procured by the PBoC.
Let’s go through some of the mechanics of the global gold market before we can stitch it all together.
PBoC Gold Buying Hidden in Plain Sight
In global customs data — officially called International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) — all gold disclosed is “non-monetary,” meaning not owned by a monetary authority such as a central bank. In the United Nations IMTS rulebook it reads that customs data excludes monetary gold:
Since monetary gold is treated as a financial asset rather than a good, transactions pertaining to it should be excluded from international merchandise trade statistics.
Though, someone familiar with the matter but who prefers to stay anonymous, shared with me that gold import and export data can relate to monetary gold. Commonly, central banks will buy gold from Western bullion banks that arrange transportation and insurance of the metal. The moment these banks ship the gold from the UK it is thus non-monetary bullion, but when it arrives in China it is monetized (changes ownership) and brought to vaults of the central bank, supposedly in Beijing.
Exports from the UK are mainly from the wholesale gold market in London where virtually all bars traded weigh 400 ounces. The retail market in Britain dealing in smaller bars pales in comparison, and the refining industry in the UK is relatively small.
In turn, at the core of the Chinese domestic gold market, which excludes Free Trade Zones (FTZs), is the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) where predominantly 1Kg gold bars are traded.
The private sector in China trades 1Kg bars through SGE, while the central bank buys “large bars” (400-ounce bars) abroad. As all gold on the SGE is traded in yuan, the PBoC can only diversify its international reserves by buying gold overseas with dollars or other foreign exchange. Aside from logic, there are multiple sources that have made clear the PBoC doesn’t purchase gold on the SGE. For example, the World Gold Council (WGC, page 9), the SGE (page 4), and it was confirmed to me personally by an ex-gold trader from a Chinese state-owned bank.
The SGE captures the lion share of all gold trading in the Chinese private market. There are rules and incentives that steer most supply—imports, domestic mine production, and recycled metal—towards the SGE, which for liquidity reasons attracts most demand. Hence, the gold withdrawn from the SGE vaults is often used as a proxy for Chinese wholesale demand. In a formula:
SGE withdrawals = net import + domestic mine output + recycled metal
Before 2022, gold supply and demand in the Chinese market matched. SGE withdrawals were always higher, to varying degrees, than net import plus domestic mine output, the difference being gold recycled through the central bourse.
If it were true that bullion banks ship gold to China, as non-monetary gold visible in customs data, that doesn’t flow into the SGE system, we would see a discrepancy between apparent Chinese gold supply and SGE withdrawals. As more gold would be supplied to China than sold through the SGE. In a formula:
SGE withdrawals < net import + domestic mine output + recycled metal
Indeed, both in 2022 and 2023 China’s net import plus mine output transcended SGE withdrawals (let alone if we would add recycled gold).
As we shall see, the surplus in the Chinese gold market—imports that are not sold through the SGE—is being absorbed by the PBoC.
Readers with deep knowledge of the Chinese gold market might think: “what if the large bars are refined in FTZs and loaded into SGE vaults without being withdrawn?” I checked with a source that has connections to refineries in China, and according to this person the refineries don’t use any large bars as feedstock for producing 1kg bars for the SGE*. Another contact I have, close to the SGE, shared with me that SGE inventory in April 2024 accounted for about 300 tonnes. Inventory had gone up recently together with a rise in the price of gold, this person said. However, the increase in SGE inventory can’t make up for the surplus in the market, which is at least 400 tonnes according to my calculations.
More Data Supporting the Thesis
By comparing estimated central bank purchases by the WGC, based on field research, to official statistics regarding gold buying by central banks, we know that since the start of the Ukraine war, in February 2022, monetary authorities in aggregate are secretly buying much more than they report. I have written before that these covert purchases can be attributed for roughly eighty percent to the PBoC.
“Unreported” PBoC gold purchases exploded when $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves from the Russian central bank were frozen by the West early 2022 due to the war. Notably, the UK began exporting 400-ounce bars to China in huge tonnages at the same time. Coincidence? I think not. Ever since, China has taken over gold price control from the West and broke the gold price’s correlation with “real rates” (10-year TIPS yield).
The final clue is that there is a relationship between what the Chinese central bank officially reports to be accumulating, and gold exports from the UK to China. What frequently happens, exposed by comparing these numbers, is that the PBoC starts buying gold a few months before it tells the world about it, and severely underreports its additions. This was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022.
Conclusion
It all fits and makes sense: the motive, the data, and the anecdotal evidence. Let’s summarize our key findings:
- The Chinese central bank desperately needs to diversify its foreign exchange reserves since the beginning of 2022. Since then, the PBoC secretly buys large amounts of gold.
- At the same time, export of large gold bars from the UK to China explodes.
- A “surplus” in the Chinese market appears, while the bullion is not to be found in SGE vaults. As if it has gone up in smoke.
- A source indicates that gold shipments for central banks are often included in customs data.
- There is a correlation between PBoC official buying and UK exports to China, suggesting the Chinese central bank buys gold in England’s capital and lets banks supervise transport (maybe because the PBoC reaches the limits of its own capacity to ship gold when volumes are sizable).
It all points towards UK gold exports to China are destined for the PBoC—although probably not every ounce of these flows is for the Chinese central bank. Clearly, the PBoC is accumulating more gold than it wants to disclose.
When the PBoC stated it had stopped buying gold in May 2024, after continuous purchases for 18 months, I didn’t believe it. The PBoC has few reasons to cease growing its gold reserves in the current geo-political and monetary landscape with a plethora of challenges.
Probably, the PBoC wants the most gold for its dollars, so when the price rises fast it will signal it stopped buying, trying to cool the market. In the meantime, the United Kingdom exported 53 tonnes to China in May, of which likely most found its way to Beijing.
Note, the PBoC also buys in Switzerland and other countries, flows that can be included or excluded in customs reports, but it’s impossible, from where I stand now, to measure all these separately.
Finally, some of my previous analyses have been skewed by the above. Private demand in China has been lower because some (“non-monetary”) imports were taken by the central bank.
END
JIM GRANT….
Jim Grant On Gold: A Constructively Inhibiting Institution
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 07:45 AM
Authored by James Grant via CoolidgeReview.com,
I stand with anachronism. I like the low hum of cultured voices, great books, and the dead authors who wrote them. I believe in the fedora hat, which should be tipped in the open air and doffed in an elevator. I support the gold standard.
Nothing against progress.
The sextant sailed us around the world and the slide rule got us up to the moon, but neither beats your pocket-sized GPS-cum-high-speed-computer-cum-Encyclopedia-Britannica.
I understand the imperative of creative destruction, but where has prudence gone?
It was nowhere to be seen in 2008, when a half dozen great American banks became wards of the state, triple-A-rated General Electric required a government bailout, and the edifice of subprime mortgages collapsed. “The greatest failure of ratings and risk management ever”—that’s what Doug Lucas, an executive director at the Swiss bank UBS, called this shameful episode when it was happening. And it was true.
Financial upheaval is as old as finance. Fractional reserve banking is inherently risky. But the so-called Great Recession stands alone for the pedigree of the victims it claimed—or would have claimed except for the saving, smothering, costly federal intercession.
On Wall Street, the fear of loss is the best regulator. It inhibits the human tendency, especially marked in boom times, to overdo it. Zero percent interest rates and reams of paper money work in the opposite direction. They are the great disinhibitors.
“The creation of debt should always be accompanied with the means of extinguishment,” Alexander Hamilton said.
DRUNK ON CHEAP CREDIT
Recall, if you can, the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, its bursting in 2000–2001, and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to contain the damage. From 6.5 percent in 2000, the central bank slashed its policy interest rate to 1 percent in 2004.
The dot-com bubble was indeed contained, but a new bubble, this one centered on fixed-income securities, especially mortgages, rose up in its place. It was titanic. And to contain the fallout of its bursting, in 2007–2009, the Fed slashed interest rates to zero. Its counterparts in Europe and Japan explored the new frontier of less-than-zero.
Ten years of ultra-low rates, beginning in 2008, proved that money grew on trees. From Silicon Valley to Washington, D.C., from venture capital to private equity to cryptocurrency to private credit and the public debt, there was money for very nearly anything and everything.
Interest rates, arguably the most important prices in a market economy, inform. That is, market-determined interest rates inform. Manipulated interest rates misinform.
Observe, today, the immensity of the public debt. Note, especially, its accelerating growth. On Donald Trump’s inauguration day, it summed to slightly less than $20 trillion. Four years later, in 2021, it reached almost $28 trillion. In 2024, under President Joe Biden, it topped $34 trillion. The successive Republican and Democratic administrations boosted the debt by more than $14 trillion, as much as the totality of what the country owed as recently as 2011. Cheap dollars and artificial borrowing costs may not have made this dubious achievement inevitable. They certainly made it possible.
In the monetary vein, I think of the chaotic scenes at Cleveland’s Municipal Stadium, home of the old American League Indians, on the night of June 4, 1974. To draw fans into the cavernous ballpark, Indians’ management staged a ten-cent beer promotion. Before many innings had passed, spectators were wandering out on the field to introduce themselves to the players. The full moon didn’t help, but the underlying problem—the remote cause of the seven emergency-room visits and nine arrests—was the mispricing of a substance nearly as intoxicating as artificially cheap credit.
America’s first secretary of the treasury famously wrote that “the proper funding of the present debt will render it a national blessing.”
A little less familiar are the cautionary words that followed. Alexander Hamilton said that he “ardently” wished “to see it incorporated, as a fundamental maxim, in the system of public credit of the United States, that the creation of debt should always be accompanied with the means of extinguishment.” Hamilton explained that he regarded this maxim “as the true secret for rendering public credit immortal.”
Now it’s the debt that’s immortal and the credit that’s at risk.
If good intentions could have solved the problem, the United States of America would command an across-the-board triple-A credit rating. A succession of laws attests to lawmakers’ hopes that the federal accounts would somehow, one day, achieve balance: the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Act of 1974, the Gephardt Rule of 1979, the Balanced Budget and Emergency Deficit Control Act of 1985, the Budget Enforcement Act of 1990, the Balanced Budget Act of 1997, and the Budget Control Act of 2011.
But fiscal New Year’s resolutions have proven no match against the proverbial ten-cent beers on tap at the Federal Reserve. Rock-bottom interest rates and the Fed’s bond-buying program would have tempted a congress of saints to run up the debt. The incumbent sinners hardly needed the push.
The breakdown of American fiscal discipline and the explosion of the U.S. public debt did not occur during the first quarter century of the Bretton Woods system.
AUGUST 15, 1971
The late-twentieth-century sea change in the nature of money deserves more attention on this matter than it ordinarily receives. From Hamilton’s day to Richard Nixon’s, the dollar was defined as a fixed weight of silver or gold. It was exchangeable into that weight of metal, by one class of dollar holder or another, on demand. The Federal Reserve note was just that—a note, a debt instrument, an IOU. It was not money but the promise to pay money.
On August 15, 1971, President Nixon cut short the era of convertibility. The dollar henceforth would be undefined. It would be convertible into small change only. It would derive its value not from Fort Knox but from the U.S. economy, that great regenerative engine of wealth and opportunity. Was this not progress?
It must be said that little remained of the gold standard that Nixon put out of its misery. The classical gold standard died in 1914. A road-show variant, the gold exchange standard, succeeded the original in the 1920s. The Bretton Woods version followed in 1944. Its principal architect, John Maynard Keynes, called it, with some hyperbole, the “exact opposite” of a gold standard.
Under Bretton Woods, exchange rates were fixed, but they might be adjusted. The dollar alone was made exchangeable into gold, but only by America’s sovereign creditors. The United States retained the reserve currency privilege—that is, the privilege to borrow without visible limits in the currency that only America could lawfully print. It has proven enough fiscal rope to hang ourselves.
Certainly, the Bretton Woods system was a step down in monetary rigor and cohesiveness, but what did not occur during its quarter century of operation was the breakdown of American fiscal discipline and the explosion of the U.S. public debt.
To avoid giving political offense, Alfred Kahn, President Jimmy Carter’s inflation czar, called a recession a “banana.” Maybe “gold standard,” too, needs a verbal makeover, so low is its standing in the eyes of academic economists.
Or, perhaps, a better understanding of the gold standard itself—its workings and character—would move the debate forward. Simplicity is the archstone of the gold standard. What does that mean? First, defining money as a weight of gold; second, allowing that treasure to move freely among participating gold standard nations. It went where it was treated well. “To me,” Federal Reserve governor Adolph C. Miller told Congress during the Coolidge presidency, “the gold standard means a set of practices, a system of procedure, never formulated, never consciously thought out, not invented by anybody, but the growth of experience of the great commercial countries of the world, rather than merely the employment of gold…to redeem all forms of obligations.”
Among the practices to which Miller referred was the protection of bank depositors. Up until the advent of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, that responsibility fell on a bank’s shareholders. In case of the insolvency or impairment of the institution in which they held a fractional interest, the shareholders got a call to stump up more capital—after all, it was their bank, not the taxpayers’. Here was a noble kind of social justice.
Under the gold standard, macroeconomic theory played little part in the formulation of policy. Under the PhD standard, macroeconomic theory drives policy making.
THE PhD STANDARD
The “exact opposite” of the gold standard is really the system in place today in the United States. One might call it the PhD standard. It’s the system of discretionary manipulation of interest rates by doctors of economics to achieve a little inflation—not too much, mind you—and maximum employment.
It’s a feature of the balance sheet of today’s Federal Reserve that operating losses swamp stated capital. Paying out in interest much more than it earns in interest, the Fed finds itself in the position that made Silicon Valley Bank infamous in 2023.
Under the gold standard, a central bank balance sheet held few, if any, government securities. Under the PhD standard, a central bank balance sheet holds almost nothing else.
Under the gold standard, the policy of each participating nation conduced to the prosperity of all participating nations; it was a synchronous, outward-looking system. Under the PhD standard, each nation looks entirely to its own interests.
Under the gold standard, macroeconomic theory played little part in the formulation of policy (indeed, the phrase monetary policy went uncoined until the 1930s). Under the PhD standard, macroeconomic theory drives policy making. And there is the rub. Which theory is correct? Which is relevant?
“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon,” Milton Friedman pronounced. Updating Friedman, John Cochrane, one of the brightest of today’s economic lights, declares, in so many words, that inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon. With due respect to each theorist, it’s as if physicists were still arguing about the laws of motion.
“Things without all remedy should be without regard,” said Lady Macbeth. In other words, what’s done cannot be undone.
I take the point that the shift away from convertible currencies to the pure paper kind is a historical fact. But I wonder whether what stands in the way of a fundamental reappraisal of our monetary and fiscal arrangements isn’t really a cultural impasse.
The gold standard was a constructively inhibiting institution. How it would fare in this, the age of the overheard cell-phone discussion about the speaker’s ugly impending contested divorce, is anybody’s guess. Perhaps we should prepare the cultural ground for fundamental monetary reform by bringing back the telephone booth—and, of course, the fedora.
* * *
This article appears in the Summer 2024 issue of the Coolidge Review. Request a free copy of the print issue.
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 184 with Craig Hemke/Andrew Maguire
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/MONDAY MORNING/FRIDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.64 PTS OR 1.54% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 247.15 PTS OR 1.46% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 4451.28 OR 12.40%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN .381%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,1171 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0888/ Oil DOWN TO 71.92 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.37 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1171
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0888
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44.64 PTS OR 1.54 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 247,15 PTS OR 1.46%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 4451.28 PTS OR 12.40%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 102.25 EURO RISES TO 1.0963 UP 61 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.777 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.42…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE END OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.104/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.633 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.030%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.287
3j Gold at $2371.25//Silver at: 26.71 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 15/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.00
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.99/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.946 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8488as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9306 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.707 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.045 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.731 DOWN 14 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.36…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.803 DOWN 8 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.019 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS//HOLIDAY
2a New York OPENING REPORT
MARGIN CALLS GALORE!!
Black Monday: Futures Plummet As VIX Hits 62, Japan Suffers Worst Point Drop In History
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 08:17 AM
Good morning and welcome to a global market meltdown, sparked by last week’s catastrophic BOJ decision to hike rates by 0.15bps which in turn crushed the $20 trillion yen carry trade, sent the yen exploding higher and wiping out trillions in highly levered investments, leading to a cascade of selling and forced liquidations which has resulted a historic market crash in Japan and a rout everywhere else.
In the US, futures are sharply lower with tech plunging as the global AI/Semis trade – itself a byproduct of the carry trade – is sold and small-caps are re-shorted. The Nasdaq 100 is set for its biggest opening drop in more than four years, as investors bracing for days of volatility amid rising concerns over a slowing US economy and overheated gains in the tech sector. Nasdaq 100 futures fell as much as 6.5% before paring losses to about 4.5%. That puts the tech-heavy index on track for its worst open since the pandemic days of March 2020.
The Nasdaq dropped into a correction Friday as investors freaked out over elevated valuations and the high cash outlay for investments in artificial intelligence. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is already in a bear market, tumbling 22% from a peak, even before Monday’s open.
Meanwhile, S&P 500 futures were down 3.0% while those tracking the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.6%.
While both Nasdaq and Russell futures have pared their largest overnight losses, brace for more waves of selling as the VIX spikes above 62 and forces margin call after margin call, and volatility sellers are carted out…
… the highest print since the Covid crash when it peaked just over 80.
While US futures are a bloodbath, nobody had it as bad as Japan whose benchmark Nikkei 225 index recorded its worst-ever daily sell-off on Monday, losing 4,451.28 points from the previous day’s closing amid panic selling triggered by fears of a possible U.S. recession and the yen’s strength.
The sell-off was the largest ever in history and worse than in the Black Monday crash of October 1987, when it lost 3,836.48 points. The average closed down 12.4% to 31,458.42. On a percentage basis it wasn’t much better, with the Nikkei’s peer, Topix, tumbling -12.2%, its biggest one day drop since the 1987 stock market crash and the second worst day since data begins in 1949; the index is poised for its biggest three-day drop on record.
Turbulence in Japan, where the central bank started to raise interest rates as the Fed looks to cut in a historic mistake that has already wiped out trillions in value, is also having ripple effects across global markets of various asset classes. This is due to moves to reverse carry trades, in which investors had borrowed at lower rates in Japan to fund purchases of higher-yielding assets elsewhere, and nowhere has this been felt more than the yen: the USDJPY is down a record 20 big figures from 162 just a few weeks ago to 142 this morning, tumbling more than 3% since Friday.
The constant selling has pushed the USDJPY RSI to the most oversold level since 1995.
Back to the US, looking at the premarket, it’s a tech rout for understandable reasons: many of the best performing stocks were direct beneficiaries of the leverage afforded by the carry trade and sure enough, all the Mag 7 names are crashing: NVDA -9.3%, AAPL -8.6%, TSLA -7.4%, MSFT -4.5%, AMZN -3%, META -6%, GOOG -5% and Semis are under pressure. Here are all the most notable premarket movers:
- Nvidia falls 12% as megacap technology stocks are bearing the brunt of the selloff as investor brace for days of volatility amid rising concerns over a slowing US economy and overheated gains in the tech sector.
- Apple -7%, Meta Platforms -5% Microsoft Corp. -4%, Tesla -9%
- Nvidia shares are also down following a report that the company’s upcoming artificial intelligence chips will be delayed due to design flaws.
- Apple’s stock is also being hurt after Berkshire Hathaway reported on Saturday that it had slashed its stake in the company by almost 50% as part of a massive second-quarter selling spree
- Cryptocurrency-linked companies tumbled as Bitcoin added to a 13% drop last week that was the worst since the period when the FTX exchange imploded. The weakness in the digital token comes amid a broader selloff in global stock markets
- Coinbase Global -15%, Riot Platforms -14%, Marathon Digital -14%
- Kellanova rises 20% after Reuters reported Mars was exploring an acquisition of the snack maker, citing people familiar with the matter.
- Moderna drops 5% as RBC cut its rating to sector perform, noting an “increasingly uncertain outlook.”
“In these sorts of scenarios, investors need to be careful,” said Ben Barringer, an analyst at Quilter Cheviot. “When sentiment begins to sour, the falls become more extreme than perhaps they should be. The next few weeks is likely to be a volatile one for tech stocks as this new environment plays out.”
While the US may have just hit $35 trillion in debt for now that is of secondary concern amid a global flight to safety, and bond yields are lower with the yield curve bull steepening and 2s/10s ~4.5bps from being fully dis-inverted as the 10Y tumbles to 3.72%. Today’s macro focus is ISM-Srvcs (51.0 survey vs. 48.8 prior), Senior Loan Officer Survey, and 2x Fedspeakers.
“With the summer low liquidity, the still heavy trend plays that need unwinding and the VIX sky-high, this selloff move could go on for a few days,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. Still, “the macro picture itself is not as bad as the market seems to think.”
Concerns over health of the US economy took center stage after Friday’s data pointed to rising unemployment levels in July, triggering a closely watched recession indicator and stoking fears that the Federal Reserve hasn’t moved quickly enough to cut interest rates. Investors bid up haven assets such as the yen, while Cboe VIX August futures spiked.
“The key point is the current shift in narrative, from no landing to soft landing,” said Florian Ielpo, the head of macro research at Lombard Odier Asset Management. “That risk was poorly priced and investors shifting gears fast explains the extent of the move.”
Elsewhere, Treasuries climbed as traders boosted bets on aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve this year, with odds of an emergency meeting rising to 25%. US two-year yields fall 11bps to 3.77%.
In FX, we already covered the main highlights: the yen soared 3.2% against the greenback, pulling USDJPY down to ~142.05. The Swiss franc also outperforms, rising 1%, while the euro adds 0.4%. Bitcoin slumps over 10%.
In rates, Treasuries retained about half of their steep, front-end-led gains during Asia session and European morning, with 2-year yields richer by 13bp at around 3.75% after falling nearly 27bp Friday. US yields remain richer by 13bp to 4bp across the curve in an aggressive bull-steepening move that has 2s10s spread wider by almost 8bp and approaching dis-inversion for the first time since July 2022. US 10-year yields trade around 3.75% after reaching lowest since June 2023. Investors continue to price in aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with about 55bp of easing now priced in for September FOMC meeting, 100bp by November’s. In other words, there is about 20% odds of an emergency rate cut already priced in. Similar gains seen in core European rates, where 2-year German yields are lower by around 11bp on the day. US session includes ISM services data at 10am New York time.
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1.9% to trade near $72.10 a barrel. Spot gold falls $18 to around $2,425/oz.
US economic data slate includes July S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and ISM services index (10am), and Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Opinion survey (2pm). Scheduled Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8:30am) and Daly (5pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 3.6% to 5,184
- STOXX Europe 600 down 2.3% to 486.40
- MXAP down 6.0% to 166.21
- MXAPJ down 4.1% to 530.79
- Nikkei down 12.4% to 31,458.42
- Topix down 12.2% to 2,227.15
- Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 16,698.36
- Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 2,860.70
- Sensex down 2.6% to 78,911.70
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 3.7% to 7,649.56
- Kospi down 8.8% to 2,441.55
- German 10Y yield -3 bps at 2.14%
- Euro up 0.5% to $1.0970
- Brent Futures down 1.0% to $76.06/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.7% to $2,425.51
- US Dollar Index down 0.72% to 102.46
Top Overnight News
- Japan’s Nikkei Stock Average closed down 12.4% in its biggest single-day percentage fall since 1987, a historic drop triggered by disappointing U.S. jobs data and a further rise in the yen. Highest turnover day ever for tpx >8trln YEN, 2nd largest drop index drop since 1987, tpx had 131 stocks close limit down, Nky had 20. Retail margin length is at highs. Mkt Underestimated CTA selling, overestimated Domestic support levels at 38, and 34…. maybe 25. WSJ / GS GBM
- China is successfully bypassing US export controls to obtain high-end AI chips. China’s gov’t reiterated its intent to bolster consumer spending (the government has been beating this drum for a VERY long time, but efforts thus far have failed to yield tangible results). NYT / BBG
- Goldman increased its 12-month recession odds by 10pp to 25%. The bank continues to see recession risk as limited not only because the data look fine overall and does not see major financial imbalances, but also because—as Chair Powell emphasized last week—the Fed has 525bp of room to cut the funds rate and would surely be quick to support the economy if necessary. The bank changed its Fed forecast after the employment report to include an initial string of three consecutive 25bp rate cuts in September, November, and December (vs. quarterly cuts previously). GIR
- Berkshire Hathaway slashed its Apple stake by almost 50%, while its cash pile soared to a record $277 billion. Suppliers to the iPhone maker slumped amid the broader selloff even as some analysts said Warren Buffett may simply be taking profit. BBG
- Iran rejected U.S. and Arab efforts to temper its response to the killing in Tehran of Hamas’s top political leader, as authorities were investigating the security breaches that led to the attack. Iranian prosecutors said Saturday that they had opened a formal investigation into the killing of Ismail Haniyeh, which came hours after an Israeli strike killed a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut. The two attacks, following a rocket strike on a soccer field in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights, escalated a recent cycle of violence and threatened to push the region to the brink of war. WSJ
- The traditional playbook when it comes to extrapolating economic data may not be relevant in the post-COVID era (the creator of the “Sahm Rule” about how a 50bp increase in the unemployment rate signals a recession expressed skepticism about applying that benchmark in the present landscape). Barron’s
- AI spending spree creating anxiety for tech investors as shareholders want more tangible proof that all the expenditures will drive profits in the future (but tech mgmt. teams suggest they won’t be dialing back anytime soon as they fear having inadequate capacity to capitalize on the AI opportunity). FT
- PE firms accelerate dealmaking activity as they prepare for the start of Fed easing (Ares, Apollo, Blackstone, and KKR deployed ~$160B in CQ2). FT
- GS PB on Friday’s flow: We saw broad-based net selling across all major regions, led by DM Asia (Japan saw the largest 1-day net selling since Mar ’20). While there was significant performance degradation on Friday as Marco pointed out, there was no further de-grossing by HFs per Prime data. Worth noting both Prime + franchise flows in the US were orderly and relatively modest on Friday. GSPB
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly slumped following last Friday’s continued sell-off on Wall St owing to disappointing jobs data which sparked recession concerns, while heightened tensions in the Middle East linger as markets await Iran’s retaliation. ASX 200 declined with tech, financials and real estate leading the broad retreat seen across all sectors. Nikkei 225 continued its aggressive slide and dipped beneath the 33,000 level for the first time since early January, while the index entered into a bear market along with the Topix. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. showed early resilience with the mainland initially kept afloat after Caixin Services PMI topped forecasts, while China recently laid out its priorities to spur consumer spending and the State Council designated 20 key steps to expand basic consumption. However, the bourses later conformed to global losses. Nikkei 225 unofficially closes at 31458, -12.4%; closes with a record daily points fall, exceeding the drop on Black Monday in October 1987
Top Asian News
- China issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of service consumption, according to Bloomberg. China’s government on Saturday laid out its priorities to spur consumer spending as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on growth in which the State Council designated 20 key steps including exploring the potential to expand basic consumption in areas such as catering, home services and elderly care, according to a statement posted on the central government’s website.
- EU capitals are set to back tariffs on Chinese electric cars with member states likely to support the imposition of proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs in November, according to FT citing the bloc’s trade commissioner Dombrovskis.
- BoJ Minutes from the June 13th-14th meeting stated that a few members said import prices are rising due to the recent yen fall, creating upside inflation risk, while a member said cost-push inflation could heighten underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage increases. Furthermore, one member said the BoJ must raise rates at appropriate timing without delay although another member said a rate hike must be done only after inflation makes a clear rebound and data confirms heightening in inflation expectations, while members agreed recent weak yen pushes up inflation and warrants vigilance in guiding monetary policy.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says stock price is determined by the market; expects economy to gradually recover; Cooperating with BoJ and FSA and closely monitoring markets with a sense of urgency. Highly interested in the current stock market situation.
- Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says they are monitoring financial situations both abroad and domestic with a sense of urgency, says it is important for the gov’t to make a judgement on the market calmly.
- Thai Finance Minister says the stock market fall is being driven by external factors, should be supported by gov’t measures
European bourses opened with marked downside, following the APAC pressure post-NFP with sentiment hit further by updates concerning Apple and Nvidia; since, benchmarks have lifted slightly off worst but remain under marked pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%. In brief, APAC pressure was pronounced with circuit breakers triggered in Japan and South Korea while the Nikkei 225 closed with a record daily points fall. Sectors in the red, Energy lags as crude benchmarks come under renewed pressure with Tech hit on sentiment and AAPL/NVDA while Banks slump as yields fall and pricing for central bank easing lifts. Infineon opened as the DAX 40 laggard after missing forecasts, narrowing guidance and announcing layoffs.
Stateside, futures in the red given the above but have begun to consolidate just off worst levels with newsflow light and as we await ISM Services & Fed speak for direction; ES -2.4%, NQ -3.9%. Bloomberg headlines this morning suggested that traders are pricing a 60% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps in the next week.
Top European News
- UK PM Starmer vowed that those responsible for the disorder and chaos that’s spreading across UK towns and cities will be punished for what he described as “far-right thuggery”, according to Bloomberg.
- Infineon (IFX GY) – Q3 (EUR): Revenue 3.7bln (exp. 3.8bln), Net 403mln (exp. 447mln), adj. Gross Margin 42.2% (exp. 40.3%), adj. EPS 0.43 (exp. 0.42). Further improvement to revenue and earnings seen in Q4, FY forecasts are well within the prior guided range. It is anticipated that revenue will increase in all four segments Q/Q. Q4 Guidance: Revenue 4bln (exp. 3.9bln). CEO says they are to cut around 1.4k jobs globally and will move an additional 1.4k. 3.6% weighting in the DAX 40
FX
- Hefty losses to begin the week for the USD with the DXY down to a 102.41 base as pricing for Fed easing ramps up considerably and as JPY strengthens significantly.
- USD/JPY down to a 141.70 base vs. a brief high-point of 146.56, action which comes as yields globally slump and differentials become more favourable following the BoJ’s hike in addition to its typical haven status amid the broad sell off.
- EUR benefitting from the USD’s pressure but with upside for the single currency capped/hampered by strength in the JPY and CHF; EUR/USD holding around 1.0950 just shy of the 1.0975 peak.
- Cable more contained and somewhat torn between USD pressure and EUR strength with yields not providing as much direction for GBP given the extent of last week’s moves around the BoE.
- Antipodeans lag on the risk tone, AUD and NZD down to lows of 0.6350 and 0.5851 respectively.
Fixed Income
- Fixed benchmarks bid as the post-NFP sell-off reverberated into and was exacerbated during APAC trade. The odds of Fed easing have ramped up even more with a 50bp cut almost entirely priced for September and implied pricing for a 25bp cut in the next week at 60%.
- USTs at highs, yields lower across the curve with just the 20yr & 30yr remaining above 4.0% at lows of 4.08% and 4.01% respectively.
- EGBs and Gilts in-fitting, Bunds up to a 136.28 peak and on track for a 10th consecutive session of gains while Gilts are also at highs but slightly more modest after last week’s action.
- No real move to the session’s Final PMIs and EZ Sentix, though both PMIs and Sentix remain downbeat on Germany with the latter noting that “recession bells are ringing again in Germany”.
Commodities
- Crude is conforming to the broader risk aversion after the US jobs data on Friday stoked fears of a recession against the backdrop of sluggish Chinese demand; though, downside has at times been cushioned by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- WTI and Brent at the low-points of session parameters, below USD 72.00/bbl and nearing USD 76.00/bbl respectively.
- Precious metals lower across the board as the USD managed to pick up slightly from worst levels and with XAU being outshone by marked JPY and Fixed bids; holding around USD 2430/oz after being as high as USD 2458/oz overnight.
- Base metals are lower across the board given the mentioned risk tone and despite better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Services PMI.
- Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price for Asia in September by 20 cents to USD 2.00/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average, while it set the OSP to NW Europe to + USD 1.25/bbl vs ICE Brent and to the US at + USD 4.10/bbl vs ASCI.
- NHC said Tropical Storm Debby is strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, while it later stated Debby has strengthened to a hurricane and is expected to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area on Monday which will bring a major flood threat to the southeastern United States.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel conducted strikes targeting two schools sheltering the displaced near Gaza City which killed at least 25 Palestinians, while the Israeli military said the strikes on Gaza schools targeted militants operating there. Israel also conducted a strike in the West Bank which killed a Hamas commander.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu on Sunday warned “Iran’s axis of evil” against attacking Israel amid expectations that Tehran and the militant groups it supports are readying retaliatory strikes, according to dpa.
- Iran-led retaliatory assaults are “expected imminently” and will likely be simultaneous, coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran itself, according to Israeli officials cited by Bloomberg and Iran International.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the terrorist act of killing Hamas chief Haniyeh was designed and executed by Israel with the support of the criminal US government, while it added that the adventurous and terrorist Zionist regime will decisively receive the response to this crime. Furthermore, the IRGC said Tehran’s revenge will be severe and at the appropriate time, place and manner, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken told his G7 counterparts on a conference call on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could begin within 24 to 48 hours, according to Walla News.
- IRGC sources told iNews Britain that Iran’s response to Israel could come no later than Tuesday or Wednesday.
- Egypt’s Foreign Minister held a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister and stressed that recent developments are unprecedented, very dangerous and threatening to the region’s stability.
- US President Biden will speak to Jordan’s King on Monday and will convene the national security team on Monday in the situation room to discuss Middle East developments, according to the White House.
- US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Iraqi PM Al-Sudani and emphasised the importance of all parties taking steps to calm regional tensions and avoid escalation, while Iraq’s PM told Blinken in the phone call that preventing regional tensions is tied to stopping Israeli aggression on Gaza. It was separately reported that Blinken told G7 ministers that Iran and Hezbollah may attack Israel within the next 24 hours, according to Axios
- White House’s Finer said the US is trying to prepare for any scenario in the Middle East by warning citizens to leave Lebanon and the US is moving an aircraft carrier to the Middle East purely for defensive reasons, while Finer said the overall goal is to turn the temperature down in the region, according to a CBS interview.
- UK Foreign Office said Britain temporarily withdrew the families of officials working at the British embassy in Beirut due to a highly volatile security situation in Lebanon.
- US Central Command forces said they successfully destroyed an Iranian-backed Houthi missile and launcher in the Houthi-controlled area of Yemen. It was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted MV Groton in the Gulf of Aden with ballistic missiles.
- Israel could reportedly pre-emptively strike Iran in the scenario that intelligence was to show that an attack was imminent, via Times of Israel.
- US is reportedly willing to guarantee to Israel that it will be able to renew fighting against Hamas in Gaza after the first phase of a potential ceasefire and hostage deal, via Times of Israel.
Geopolitics: Other
- Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the arrival of F-16 fighter jets and said they are already in use in Ukraine’s skies, while he said Ukraine does not have enough F-16 pilots or jets and hopes training will be expanded. Furthermore, he plans to discuss at the Ukraine-NATO council the use of neighbouring countries’ aviation for air defence work.- Ukrainian military said it struck a Russian submarine and anti-aircraft system in Crimea, while it also struck Russia’s Morovosk airfield, as well as oil fields and fuel facilities in three Russian regions.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured a settlement in the Donetsk region.
- North Korean leader Kim said they will have a more improved level of nuclear readiness in the near future to respond to any challenges, while he added that stockpiling and improving nuclear weapons is the best way to counter the US, according to KCNA.
- Philippines and German Defence Ministers committed to concluding a broader defence agreement, while the Philippines Defence Minister said they invited German ships to participate in exercises.
US Event Calendar
- 09:45: July S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 56.0, prior 56.0
- 10:00: July ISM Services Index, est. 51.0, prior 48.8
- 14:00: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices
2B EUROPEAN REPORT
Sell off continues, circuit breakers triggered in APAC trade; odds of Fed cuts soar – Newsquawk US Market Open
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 06:31 AM
- European bourses opened with marked downside, following the APAC pressure post-NFP with sentiment hit further by updates concerning Apple and Nvidia; US futures slump, ES -2.5% & NQ -4.0%
- APAC pressure was pronounced with circuit breakers triggered in Japan and South Korea; Nikkei 225, -12%, closed with a record daily points fall
- Hefty losses for the DXY with JPY the main beneficiary and USD/JPY down to a 141.70 base, EUR benefitting modestly from the USD downside
- Fixed benchmarks bid with the odds of Central Bank easing ramping up; implied odds of a 25bp Fed cut this week as high as 60%
- Crude conforms to the broader tone despite ongoing geopolitical tensions with metals pressured as JPY and Fixed are favoured over XAU currently
- Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Composite/Services Final PMIs, ISM Services PMI, Comments from Fed’s Daly & Goolsbee.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses opened with marked downside, following the APAC pressure post-NFP with sentiment hit further by updates concerning Apple and Nvidia; since, benchmarks have lifted slightly off worst but remain under marked pressure, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%.
- In brief, APAC pressure was pronounced with circuit breakers triggered in Japan and South Korea while the Nikkei 225 closed with a record daily points fall.
- Sectors in the red, Energy lags as crude benchmarks come under renewed pressure with Tech hit on sentiment and AAPL/NVDA while Banks slump as yields fall and pricing for central bank easing lifts.
- Infineon opened as the DAX 40 laggard after missing forecasts, narrowing guidance and announcing layoffs.
- Stateside, futures in the red given the above but have begun to consolidate just off worst levels with newsflow light and as we await ISM Services & Fed speak for direction; ES -2.4%, NQ -3.9%.
- Bloomberg headlines this morning suggested that traders are pricing a 60% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps in the next week.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- Hefty losses to begin the week for the USD with the DXY down to a 102.41 base as pricing for Fed easing ramps up considerably and as JPY strengthens significantly.
- USD/JPY down to a 141.70 base vs. a brief high-point of 146.56, action which comes as yields globally slump and differentials become more favourable following the BoJ’s hike in addition to its typical haven status amid the broad sell off.
- EUR benefitting from the USD’s pressure but with upside for the single currency capped/hampered by strength in the JPY and CHF; EUR/USD holding around 1.0950 just shy of the 1.0975 peak.
- Cable more contained and somewhat torn between USD pressure and EUR strength with yields not providing as much direction for GBP given the extent of last week’s moves around the BoE.
- Antipodeans lag on the risk tone, AUD and NZD down to lows of 0.6350 and 0.5851 respectively.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Fixed benchmarks bid as the post-NFP sell-off reverberated into and was exacerbated during APAC trade. The odds of Fed easing have ramped up even more with a 50bp cut almost entirely priced for September and implied pricing for a 25bp cut in the next week at 60%.
- USTs at highs, yields lower across the curve with just the 20yr & 30yr remaining above 4.0% at lows of 4.08% and 4.01% respectively.
- EGBs and Gilts in-fitting, Bunds up to a 136.28 peak and on track for a 10th consecutive session of gains while Gilts are also at highs but slightly more modest after last week’s action.
- No real move to the session’s Final PMIs and EZ Sentix, though both PMIs and Sentix remain downbeat on Germany with the latter noting that “recession bells are ringing again in Germany”.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude is conforming to the broader risk aversion after the US jobs data on Friday stoked fears of a recession against the backdrop of sluggish Chinese demand; though, downside has at times been cushioned by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- WTI and Brent at the low-points of session parameters, below USD 72.00/bbl and nearing USD 76.00/bbl respectively.
- Precious metals lower across the board as the USD managed to pick up slightly from worst levels and with XAU being outshone by marked JPY and Fixed bids; holding around USD 2430/oz after being as high as USD 2458/oz overnight.
- Base metals are lower across the board given the mentioned risk tone and despite better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Services PMI.
- Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price for Asia in September by 20 cents to USD 2.00/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average, while it set the OSP to NW Europe to + USD 1.25/bbl vs ICE Brent and to the US at + USD 4.10/bbl vs ASCI.
- NHC said Tropical Storm Debby is strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, while it later stated Debby has strengthened to a hurricane and is expected to make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area on Monday which will bring a major flood threat to the southeastern United States.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU HCOB Composite Final PMI (Jul) 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.1); Services Final PMI 51.9 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 51.9)
- EU Sentix Index (Aug) -13.9 vs. Exp. -8.0 (Prev. -7.3)
- EU Producer Prices MM (Jun) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. -0.2%); YY -3.2% vs. Exp. -3.3% (Prev. -4.2%, Rev. -4.1%)
- UK S&P Global PMI Composite (Jul) 52.8 vs. Exp. 52.7 (Prev. 52.7); Service PMI 52.5 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.4)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer vowed that those responsible for the disorder and chaos that’s spreading across UK towns and cities will be punished for what he described as “far-right thuggery”, according to Bloomberg.
- Infineon (IFX GY) – Q3 (EUR): Revenue 3.7bln (exp. 3.8bln), Net 403mln (exp. 447mln), adj. Gross Margin 42.2% (exp. 40.3%), adj. EPS 0.43 (exp. 0.42). Further improvement to revenue and earnings seen in Q4, FY forecasts are well within the prior guided range. It is anticipated that revenue will increase in all four segments Q/Q. Q4 Guidance: Revenue 4bln (exp. 3.9bln). CEO says they are to cut around 1.4k jobs globally and will move an additional 1.4k. 3.6% weighting in the DAX 40
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Bloomberg headlines suggest that traders are pricing a 60% chance that the Fed will cut rates by 25bps in the next week.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said on Friday that jobs data follows the trend of a cooling labour market and noted they had multiple good months of inflation and was broad-based. Furthermore, he said if inflation and the job market continue to cool, the Fed should cut.
- US Republican Presidential Candidate Trump said he agreed with Fox News to debate Kamala Harris on September 4th and said he agreed to conduct a major town hall event that evening if Harris is unwilling or unable to debate on that date.
- Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a US recession by 10ppts to 25% for the next 12 months.
- Apple (AAPL) – Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) has reduced its stake in Apple to USD 84.2bln (vs 135.4bln last quarter)
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) – Q2 EPS 21,122 (vs 24,775 Y/Y), Q2 operating income USD 11.59bln (+15.5% Y/Y), Quarterly net income -15% to USD 30.34bln (vs 35.91bln Y/Y), Q2 revenue USD 93.65bln (exp. 94.5bln). Nearly half of BRK’s profit came from its insurance businesses, including Geico car insurance, where underwriting profit more than tripled as premiums rose and claims fell. Insurance underwriting income +81% Y/Y, and insurance investment income +40% Y/Y. Berkshire’s cash stake grew to USD 276.9bln (vs 189bln Q/Q) as it sold a net USD 75.5bln of stocks in Q2, the seventh straight quarter that Berkshire sold more stocks than it bought, Reuters notes. Berkshire repurchased USD 345mln of its own stock in the quarter (vs USD 2.57bln in Q1).
- Nvidia (NVDA) – Nvidia’s upcoming AI chips, part of the Blackwell series, will be delayed by over three months due to design flaws, The Information reports. This delay affects major customers like Meta Platforms (META), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT), which have collectively ordered tens of billions of dollars worth of the chips. Goldman Sachs said if the report is true, it could drive some volatility in Nvidia’s near-term fundamentals, but it expects there to be little to no impact on CY2025 earnings and, most importantly, the company’s long-term competitive position; GS maintained its Buy rating on NVDA (also on its Americas Conviction List) and its 12-month PT of USD 135 (26% potential upside).
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel conducted strikes targeting two schools sheltering the displaced near Gaza City which killed at least 25 Palestinians, while the Israeli military said the strikes on Gaza schools targeted militants operating there. Israel also conducted a strike in the West Bank which killed a Hamas commander.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu on Sunday warned “Iran’s axis of evil” against attacking Israel amid expectations that Tehran and the militant groups it supports are readying retaliatory strikes, according to dpa.
- Iran-led retaliatory assaults are “expected imminently” and will likely be simultaneous, coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran itself, according to Israeli officials cited by Bloomberg and Iran International.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the terrorist act of killing Hamas chief Haniyeh was designed and executed by Israel with the support of the criminal US government, while it added that the adventurous and terrorist Zionist regime will decisively receive the response to this crime. Furthermore, the IRGC said Tehran’s revenge will be severe and at the appropriate time, place and manner, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken told his G7 counterparts on a conference call on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could begin within 24 to 48 hours, according to Walla News.
- IRGC sources told iNews Britain that Iran’s response to Israel could come no later than Tuesday or Wednesday.
- Egypt’s Foreign Minister held a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister and stressed that recent developments are unprecedented, very dangerous and threatening to the region’s stability.
- US President Biden will speak to Jordan’s King on Monday and will convene the national security team on Monday in the situation room to discuss Middle East developments, according to the White House.
- US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Iraqi PM Al-Sudani and emphasised the importance of all parties taking steps to calm regional tensions and avoid escalation, while Iraq’s PM told Blinken in the phone call that preventing regional tensions is tied to stopping Israeli aggression on Gaza. It was separately reported that Blinken told G7 ministers that Iran and Hezbollah may attack Israel within the next 24 hours, according to Axios
- White House’s Finer said the US is trying to prepare for any scenario in the Middle East by warning citizens to leave Lebanon and the US is moving an aircraft carrier to the Middle East purely for defensive reasons, while Finer said the overall goal is to turn the temperature down in the region, according to a CBS interview.
- UK Foreign Office said Britain temporarily withdrew the families of officials working at the British embassy in Beirut due to a highly volatile security situation in Lebanon.
- US Central Command forces said they successfully destroyed an Iranian-backed Houthi missile and launcher in the Houthi-controlled area of Yemen. It was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted MV Groton in the Gulf of Aden with ballistic missiles.
- Israel could reportedly pre-emptively strike Iran in the scenario that intelligence was to show that an attack was imminent, via Times of Israel.
- US is reportedly willing to guarantee to Israel that it will be able to renew fighting against Hamas in Gaza after the first phase of a potential ceasefire and hostage deal, via Times of Israel.
OTHER
- Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the arrival of F-16 fighter jets and said they are already in use in Ukraine’s skies, while he said Ukraine does not have enough F-16 pilots or jets and hopes training will be expanded. Furthermore, he plans to discuss at the Ukraine-NATO council the use of neighbouring countries’ aviation for air defence work.– Ukrainian military said it struck a Russian submarine and anti-aircraft system in Crimea, while it also struck Russia’s Morovosk airfield, as well as oil fields and fuel facilities in three Russian regions.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured a settlement in the Donetsk region.
- North Korean leader Kim said they will have a more improved level of nuclear readiness in the near future to respond to any challenges, while he added that stockpiling and improving nuclear weapons is the best way to counter the US, according to KCNA.
- Philippines and German Defence Ministers committed to concluding a broader defence agreement, while the Philippines Defence Minister said they invited German ships to participate in exercises.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin under marked pressure and briefly losing the USD 50k handle with downside in excess of 15% thus far.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks mostly slumped following last Friday’s continued sell-off on Wall St owing to disappointing jobs data which sparked recession concerns, while heightened tensions in the Middle East linger as markets await Iran’s retaliation.
- ASX 200 declined with tech, financials and real estate leading the broad retreat seen across all sectors.
- Nikkei 225 continued its aggressive slide and dipped beneath the 33,000 level for the first time since early January, while the index entered into a bear market along with the Topix.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. showed early resilience with the mainland initially kept afloat after Caixin Services PMI topped forecasts, while China recently laid out its priorities to spur consumer spending and the State Council designated 20 key steps to expand basic consumption. However, the bourses later conformed to global losses.
- Nikkei 225 unofficially closes at 31458, -12.4%; closes with a record daily points fall, exceeding the drop on Black Monday in October 1987
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of service consumption, according to Bloomberg. China’s government on Saturday laid out its priorities to spur consumer spending as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on growth in which the State Council designated 20 key steps including exploring the potential to expand basic consumption in areas such as catering, home services and elderly care, according to a statement posted on the central government’s website.
- EU capitals are set to back tariffs on Chinese electric cars with member states likely to support the imposition of proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs in November, according to FT citing the bloc’s trade commissioner Dombrovskis.
- BoJ Minutes from the June 13th-14th meeting stated that a few members said import prices are rising due to the recent yen fall, creating upside inflation risk, while a member said cost-push inflation could heighten underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage increases. Furthermore, one member said the BoJ must raise rates at appropriate timing without delay although another member said a rate hike must be done only after inflation makes a clear rebound and data confirms heightening in inflation expectations, while members agreed recent weak yen pushes up inflation and warrants vigilance in guiding monetary policy.
- Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki says stock price is determined by the market; expects economy to gradually recover; Cooperating with BoJ and FSA and closely monitoring markets with a sense of urgency. Highly interested in the current stock market situation.
- Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi says they are monitoring financial situations both abroad and domestic with a sense of urgency, says it is important for the gov’t to make a judgement on the market calmly.
- Thai Finance Minister says the stock market fall is being driven by external factors, should be supported by gov’t measures
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jul) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.2); Composite PMI (Jul) 51.2 (Prev. 52.8)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
APAC slumped post-NFP with geopols factoring, circuit breakers triggered – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 01:51 AM
- APAC stocks mostly slumped following last Friday’s continued sell-off on Wall St, while heightened tensions in the Middle East linger.
- MSCI Asia Pacific has wiped out all of 2024 YTD gains; Nikkei 225 fell over 12% and circuit breakers were triggered Japan and South Korea.
- US equity futures were pressured amid the sell-off in Asia; ES -1.9%, NQ -3.7%, YM -0.8%, RTY -3.0%.
- European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.4% after the cash market finished with losses of 2.7% on Friday.
- DXY resumed its decline to beneath the 103.00 level, USD/JPY retreated to a sub-143.00 level, 10-year UST futures extended on last week’s firm gains.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Final Composite/Services Final PMIs, ISM Services PMI, Comments from Fed’s Daly, Earnings from Infineon.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks sold off on Friday after disappointing NFP jobs data and a surprise increase in the Unemployment Rate to 4.3% from 4.1% added to the fears surrounding US growth, while the dollar was also pressured following the data with money markets now pricing in 115bps of rate cuts this year.
- SPX -1.8% at 5,347, NDX -2.4% at 18,441, DJIA -1.5% at 39,737, RUT -3.5% at 2,109
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Barkin (2024 voter) said his gut tells him inflation pressures are normalising and the job market is still generally healthy, while he added that the Fed has more data to weigh before its rate decision and he won’t prejudge what the Fed needs to do at the September meeting, according to PBS Program.
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said on Friday that jobs data follows the trend of a cooling labour market and noted they had multiple good months of inflation and was broad-based. Furthermore, he said if inflation and the job market continue to cool, the Fed should cut.
- US Republican Presidential Candidate Trump said he agreed with Fox News to debate Kamala Harris on September 4th and said he agreed to conduct a major town hall event that evening if Harris is unwilling or unable to debate on that date.
- Goldman Sachs raised its odds of a US recession by 10ppts to 25% for the next 12 months.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks mostly slumped following last Friday’s continued sell-off on Wall St owing to disappointing jobs data which sparked recession concerns, while heightened tensions in the Middle East linger as markets await Iran’s retaliation.
- ASX 200 declined with tech, financials and real estate leading the broad retreat seen across all sectors.
- Nikkei 225 continued its aggressive slide and dipped beneath the 33,000 level for the first time since early January, while the index entered into a bear market along with the Topix.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. showed early resilience with the mainland initially kept afloat after Caixin Services PMI topped forecasts, while China recently laid out its priorities to spur consumer spending and the State Council designated 20 key steps to expand basic consumption. However, the bourses later conformed to global losses.
- US equity futures were pressured amid the sell-off in Asia and concerns the Fed may have missed the opportunity for a soft landing; ES -1.9%, NQ -3.7%, YM -0.8%, RTY -3.0%.
- European equity futures indicate a lower open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 1.4% after the cash market finished with losses of 2.7% on Friday.
FX
- DXY resumed its decline to beneath the 103.00 level after last week’s post-NFP selling as the slowdown in US jobs growth and rise in the Unemployment Rate sparked economic concerns and recession fears.
- EUR/USD held on to recent gains and breached through Friday’s best levels for a firmer footing at the 1.0900 handle.
- GBP/USD lacked direction amid quiet pertinent newsflow and as the pair battles with resistance at the 1.2800 level.
- USD/JPY retreated to a sub-143.00 level amid panic selling as Japanese markets took the brunt of the sell-off in stocks.
- Antipodeans were subdued owing to their high-beta statuses but with the downside cushioned after better-than-expected Chinese Caixin Services PMI data and as the RBA begins its two-day meeting.
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures extended on last week’s firm gains after weak jobs data added to recession fears and boosted rate cut bets with money markets pricing as much as 120bps of cuts this year and around an 80% chance of a 50bp cut in September.
- Bund futures gained with support at the open alongside the selling pressure in risk assets.
- 10-year JGB futures rallied as yields continued to drop and Japan’s main stock indices dipped into bear market territory.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures traded indecisively as tailwinds from the heightened Middle East tensions were offset by the risk-off mood.
- Saudi Arabia raised its official selling price for Asia in September by 20 cents to USD 2.00/bbl above the Oman/Dubai average, while it set the OSP to NW Europe to + USD 1.25/bbl vs ICE Brent and to the US at + USD 4.10/bbl vs ASCI.
- NHC said Tropical Storm Debby is strengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, while it later stated Debby is likely to strengthen to a hurricane on Sunday night and make landfall in the Florida Big Bend area on Monday which will bring a major flood threat to the southeastern United States.
- Spot gold reversed an early dip and gradually edged higher as the bloodbath in stocks spurred haven demand.
- Copper futures shrugged off the negative mood and were kept afloat given early resilience in mainland China.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was heavily pressured amid the global stock sell-off and fell beneath the USD 54,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- China issued guidelines to promote high-quality development of service consumption, according to Bloomberg. China’s government on Saturday laid out its priorities to spur consumer spending as weak domestic demand continues to weigh on growth in which the State Council designated 20 key steps including exploring the potential to expand basic consumption in areas such as catering, home services and elderly care, according to a statement posted on the central government’s website.
- EU capitals are set to back tariffs on Chinese electric cars with member states likely to support the imposition of proposed tariffs on Chinese EVs in November, according to FT citing the bloc’s trade commissioner Dombrovskis.
- BoJ Minutes from the June 13th-14th meeting stated that a few members said import prices are rising due to the recent yen fall, creating upside inflation risk, while a member said cost-push inflation could heighten underlying inflation if it leads to higher inflation expectations and wage increases. Furthermore, one member said the BoJ must raise rates at appropriate timing without delay although another member said a rate hike must be done only after inflation makes a clear rebound and data confirms heightening in inflation expectations, while members agreed recent weak yen pushes up inflation and warrants vigilance in guiding monetary policy.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Caixin Services PMI (Jul) 52.1 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.2)
- Chinese Caixin Composite PMI (Jul) 51.2 (Prev. 52.8)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel conducted strikes targeting two schools sheltering the displaced near Gaza City which killed at least 25 Palestinians, while the Israeli military said the strikes on Gaza schools targeted militants operating there. Israel also conducted a strike in the West Bank which killed a Hamas commander.
- Israeli PM Netanyahu on Sunday warned “Iran’s axis of evil” against attacking Israel amid expectations that Tehran and the militant groups it supports are readying retaliatory strikes, according to dpa.
- Iran-led retaliatory assaults are “expected imminently” and will likely be simultaneous, coming from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Iran itself, according to Israeli officials cited by Bloomberg and Iran International.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said the terrorist act of killing Hamas chief Haniyeh was designed and executed by Israel with the support of the criminal US government, while it added that the adventurous and terrorist Zionist regime will decisively receive the response to this crime. Furthermore, the IRGC said Tehran’s revenge will be severe and at the appropriate time, place and manner, according to Reuters.
- US Secretary of State Blinken told his G7 counterparts on a conference call on Sunday that an attack by Iran and Hezbollah against Israel could begin within 24 to 48 hours, according to Walla News.
- IRGC sources told iNews Britain that Iran’s response to Israel could come no later than Tuesday or Wednesday.
- Egypt’s Foreign Minister held a call with Iran’s Foreign Minister and stressed that recent developments are unprecedented, very dangerous and threatening to the region’s stability.
- US President Biden will speak to Jordan’s King on Monday and will convene the national security team on Monday in the situation room to discuss Middle East developments, according to the White House.
- US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Iraqi PM Al-Sudani and emphasised the importance of all parties taking steps to calm regional tensions and avoid escalation, while Iraq’s PM told Blinken in the phone call that preventing regional tensions is tied to stopping Israeli aggression on Gaza. It was separately reported that Blinken told G7 ministers that Iran and Hezbollah may attack Israel within the next 24 hours, according to Axios
- White House’s Finer said the US is trying to prepare for any scenario in the Middle East by warning citizens to leave Lebanon and the US is moving an aircraft carrier to the Middle East purely for defensive reasons, while Finer said the overall goal is to turn the temperature down in the region, according to a CBS interview.
- UK Foreign Office said Britain temporarily withdrew the families of officials working at the British embassy in Beirut due to a highly volatile security situation in Lebanon.
- US Central Command forces said they successfully destroyed an Iranian-backed Houthi missile and launcher in the Houthi-controlled area of Yemen. It was separately reported that Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted MV Groton in the Gulf of Aden with ballistic missiles.
OTHER
- Ukrainian President Zelensky announced the arrival of F-16 fighter jets and said they are already in use in Ukraine’s skies, while he said Ukraine does not have enough F-16 pilots or jets and hopes training will be expanded. Furthermore, he plans to discuss at the Ukraine-NATO council the use of neighbouring countries’ aviation for air defence work.– Ukrainian military said it struck a Russian submarine and anti-aircraft system in Crimea, while it also struck Russia’s Morovosk airfield, as well as oil fields and fuel facilities in three Russian regions.
- Russian Defence Ministry said Russian forces captured a settlement in the Donetsk region.
- North Korean leader Kim said they will have a more improved level of nuclear readiness in the near future to respond to any challenges, while he added that stockpiling and improving nuclear weapons is the best way to counter the US, according to KCNA.
- Philippines and German Defence Ministers committed to concluding a broader defence agreement, while the Philippines Defence Minister said they invited German ships to participate in exercises.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer vowed that those responsible for the disorder and chaos that’s spreading across UK towns and cities will be punished for what he described as “far-right thuggery”, according to Bloomberg.
2D JAPAN
Japanic Monday: Japanese Bonds, Stocks Halted After Plunging Into Bear Market As Everything Crashes Everywhere
SUNDAY, AUG 04, 2024 – 08:48 PM
In our preview of last week’s BOJ we refrained from giving details and merely shared a candid assessment of what we thought the result would be:
BOJ preview: whatever is the dumbest possible thing that can happen, is what will happen. 100% guaranteed
·
453.6K Views
And we were right, because by deciding to hike rates into an economic showdown, the BOJ – which as we noted last week “changed the rules” again – has unleashed a financial apocalypse by creating a positive feedback loop that culminates with a deflationary collapse of all assets (as the bank now goalseeks a surge in the yen and thus deflation and economic devastation) which has led to not only to the Nikkei promptly entering a bear market from its all time high hit just 3 weeks ago and wiping out all of its year to day gains, not to mention collapsing 15% since last week’s BOJ meeting which we knew would be a disaster…
… which has also just suffered its biggest two-day drop in history, surpassing Black Monday…
… but also the halt of trading of both its peer, the Topix…
- *CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED FOR TOPIX INDEX
… as it too enters a bear market…
- *JAPAN’S TOPIX INDEX FALLS 20% FROM JULY PEAK
… and the entire Japanese bond market:
- *CIRCUIT BREAKER TRIGGERED FOR JAPAN GOVT BOND FUTURES
Meanwhile, among today’s freefalling stocks are such names as the iconic Nintendo…
- *NASDAQ 100 FUTURES DROP AS MUCH AS 2%
…and perhaps something more troubling, is that Japan’s megabanks are in freefall, starting with Mizuho…
- *MIZUHO SHARES FALL AS MUCH AS 12%, MOST SINCE MARCH 2020
and ending with Japan’s largest bank, its JPMorgan, if you will, which just plunged the most on record!
- *MUFG SHARES FALL AS MUCH AS 21%, RECORD INTRADAY DECLINE
It’s not just Japan: Korea is getting swept in as well…
- *KOSPI INDEX SLUMPS, TAKING LOSSES FROM JULY PEAK TO 10%
… and of course, the US, where Nasdaq futures crashing as much as 2% and the S&P is down 1.1%
- *NASDAQ 100 FUTURES DROP AS MUCH AS 2%
And then there’s bitcoin which, well, lets not even go there.
So strap in folks, the day is just getting started…
end
3 CHINA
CHINA/USA/EUROPE
A MUST READ…..
Beijing Helicopter Money Taking Off: China Central Banker Calls For Direct Money Transfers To Households
SATURDAY, AUG 03, 2024 – 09:50 AM
When the US economy crashed in a deflationary vortex during the global financial crisis 2008 (and just after the time giant yen carry trade imploded), it seemed to many that another great Depression was assured. However, after a brief period of pain, both the US and the world economy staged a remarkable rebound which, we learned after the fact, was thanks to a unprecedented releveraging undertaken by China, which issued trillions in new debt and used the proceeds to not only build countless ghost cities, but to spark an inflationary tsunami around the world which helped the world economy recover from its depression on very short notice.
Fast forward 17 years when, with another massive yen carry trade collapsing, the world on the verge of a deflationary tsunami, central banks are either cutting rates or preparing to do so, and global growth starting at another recession (if not depression) in the face. “Deja “vu some would say (it would have been even more symmetric if the bank failures from last March been delayed until now) , but there is one major difference: unlike 2008, this time China is not coming to save the world. The reason why is the same reason why China’s economy and markets have been in a downward spiral for the past 5 years: the world’s second largest economy (soon to be overtaken by India’s economy just as it recently lost the crown for most populous nation) simply has too much debt, and unlike 2008, Beijing has no more capacity to taken on the unlimited debt need to bootstrap the global economy (as discussed last year in “China’s 300% Debt And Dilemmas“).
Or maybe we – and consensus – are dead wrong: maybe despite pessimism that China simply has too much debt to do stimulate with even more new debt, this time Beijing will do what the Fed did in 2009 and launch helicopter money.
We bring this up not because this is some “hare-brained” conspiracy theory, but because an influential Chinese central bank adviser delivered a rare critique of his nation’s economic policy, urging the government to set a compulsory target for inflation, step up spending to address weak consumption and even start helicopter money
In an article published this week, which cited his earlier speech in May, Huang Yiping – a prominent member of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy committee – said that authorities should change their strategy of “focusing on investment and neglecting consumption,” shift policy preference from investment to consumption, set a hard CPI target of 2-3%, adopt fiscal measures to support consumption (such as allowing migrant workers to settle in cities, something which would spark a new Chinese housing bubble overnight) and last but not least, directly send money to households!
“The economy has entered a new stage and the total demand — including consumption, exports and even investment — is no longer as strong as before,” said Huang. “This actually poses new challenges to macroeconomic policies.” Meanwhile an excessive focus on fiscal health – such as maintaining the budget deficit below 3% of gross domestic product even when growth is weak – is now hindering China’s economy and eroding room for future policy action, he said.
The reason for the sudden scramble: Huang believes that if the Chinese economy falls into the trap of low inflation (like Japan) “the consequences will be severe”, and here we agree wholeheartedly. In fact, we are surprised that amid growing social discontent, record youth unemployment and a tendency for China’s middle class to revolt, Beijing hasn’t done this already. Maybe it will – soon – and in doing so would spark an inflationary shockwave around the globe.
Rebalancing China’s two-speed economy has been a challenge as authorities lean on manufacturing to propel growth while risking a backlash by creating a global glut of exports.
The transcript of Huang’s speech was only released in the wake of the Communist Party’s twice-a-decade meeting on reforms that left investors disappointed and pushed Chinese stocks sharply lower. The Third Plenum proposed few solutions to the economy’s most pressing problems, as top leaders reaffirmed manufacturing as the centerpiece of the economy, despite rising trade tensions, while pushing the same worn out policies that have failed to kickstart China’s sinking economy.
Huang’s frank assessment comes as public critiques of Chinese government measures have become increasingly fraught as policymakers struggle to arrest a slowdown. Analysts have been advised to avoid discussing sensitive terms such as “deflation” or expressing views deemed overly negative for the economy.
Hu Xijin, the former editor-in-chief of China’s state-backed Global Times, was banned from posting on social media after he wrote controversial comments about the economy, Bloomberg reported on Thursday, citing a person familiar with the matter.
Having learned how not to trigger his overlords, Huang highlighted falling prices – without using the word “deflation ”- as the key issue requiring greater attention, and advocated for setting a hard target for China’s consumer price index to increase by 2%-3%. Policymakers have consistently aimed for inflation at 3% in the past, but it’s regarded as a celling, not necessarily something that must be achieved. In light of recent CPI prints that have stuck around 0% for much of the past year, Beijing will be delighted to recover 3% CPI. Or even 2%.
“The economy is now easy to cool but difficult to heat up,” said Huang, who’s also dean of the National School of Development at Peking University. “If it really falls into the low inflation trap, the consequences will be serious” said the central banker having learned from Japan’s catastrophic experience.
After China extended its longest deflationary streak since 1999 last quarter, Huang raised the question of whether the world’s No. 2 economy could fall into the same cycle as Japan, which suffered decades of deflation and was referenced more than a dozen times in his remarks.
Huang was careful to strike a constructive tone in his lengthy speech, with the government’s policies only characterized as being “mild” and “new conditions emerging in the economy” blamed for measures having a weaker effect than desired. China’s home sales slumped again in July, despite Beijing unveiling this year its most forceful efforts yet to support the property market that’s suffering a prolonged crisis.
According to Huang, two popular but flawed views were hindering policies. One was the belief that only structural reform can lift productivity, and the second was an aversion to adopting the more aggressive policies taken by Western countries.
Massive stimulus unleashed by the US and Europe in recent years had effectively supported those markets, without triggering significant negative consequences, added Huang, who has worked at investment banks including Citigroup and Barclays, and who clearly has someone do his shopping for him with a corporate card. Yes, his assessment is idiotic – the massive stimulus has unleashed even more massive inflation – but for China and its 1.3 billion citizens, deflation is even more dangerous than inflation.
Huang returned as a PBOC adviser this year after serving in that role between 2015 and 2018. He’s previously called for the PBOC to cut interest rates even as the US Federal Reserve began to hike, and flagged the risk of overseas push-back on China’s industrial policies, something which will be in full force once Donald Trump returns to the White House.
Huang said both the central bank and the Finance Ministry were trying to preserve future policy space, but what are they waiting for when the country desperately needs to reboot its economy here and now, and waiting too long threatens the very stability of the social fabric. Too conservative measures could threaten longer-term economic stability, he added.
Pressure on the balance sheets of households, businesses and local governments is feeding the economy’s weakness, according to Huang. This means the central government needs to shoulder more responsibility and stabilize confidence, he said.
“If the deteriorating trend is not stopped, it can lead to very serious consequences.”
While it is unclear of Huang speaks for others beside himself (it is no secret that lately Chinese social media has seen a tidal wave of censorship seeking to counter angry complaints about the slowing economy), one thing is certain: if the US slides into a recession, which now seems inevitable, China will have no choice but to do what the PBOC advisor suggests, as the only remaining pillar propping up China’s economy – US imports – slowly fades away. Should that happen, and should Trump implement the reflationary tariffs (up to 100%) he hopes to put in place once elected, the inflationary tsunami that awaits in 2025 will make the galloping inflation from the early 1980s seem like a very gentle rise in prices by comparison.
end
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND
Boiling The British Frog…
SUNDAY, AUG 04, 2024 – 09:20 AM
Authored by Sam Bidwell via The Critic,
There is an old — and rather grotesque — fable about the best way to boil a frog. Turn up the temperature too quickly, and the agile amphibian will simply hop out of the pot — but turn up the temperature gradually, and the frog won’t even realise that it’s being boiled until it’s too late. Though science has conclusively proven that this old wives’ tale isn’t actually true, it nevertheless serves as a useful case study for how quickly we can become inoculated against challenging or unpleasant circumstances.
Much like our froggy friends, the British people are being gradually induced into a dangerous “new normal”, in which criminality, disorder, and personal tragedy are part and parcel of life in this country. As a result of our failed policies on crime, immigration, and integration over the past thirty years, we have gradually transitioned from one of the world’s safest societies to a country in which criminality is the norm. There is a risk that the public becomes used to this new reality, and stops expecting politicians to address the root causes of disorder.
Rather than reacting to the slow drip-feed of news stories on an individual basis, it can be informative to step back and take a holistic view. In just the past few weeks, the headlines have been dominated by events which, in the aggregate, point to a precipitous decline in public order.
On July 11th, the new Labour government announced that 5,000 prisoners would be released early, in order to ease prison overcrowding. On July 15th, reports emerged that London’s once-great Metropolitan Police had failed to solve a single burglary, phone theft, or car theft in 166 London neighbourhoods over the past three years. On July 17th, a Jordanian refugee who attacked a female police officer in Bournemouth was spared community service on the grounds that he could not speak English — and on July 18th, two asylum seekers from Egypt who stole a watch worth £25,000 in London’s West End were spared jail.
That same day saw two separate cases of rioting. In the Harehills area of Leeds, police were attacked and a double-decker bus was set on fire by local residents after four Romani children were taken into care by social services. In East London’s plurality-Bangladeshi borough of Tower Hamlets, rioting broke out in response to political unrest in Bangladesh.
Let me stress this again — all of these incidents took place within the space of a single week.
In years gone by, each of these high-profile incidents would have dominated national attention, and provoked a conversation about the state of law and order in this country. Today, they’re little more than fodder for the 24-hour news cycle, as fleeting as stories about vapid celebrity drama or tiresome political rigmarole.
The list goes on.
July 23rd, Anjem Choudhary is charged with directing an Islamic terrorist group. July 24th, British cadets at an Army Barracks in Gillingham are told not to wear uniforms in public after an officer is targeted and stabbed. July 26th, protests break out after police in Greater Manchester are recorded restraining two brothers seen fighting passengers at Manchester Airport. July 27th, six people arrested after a drive-by shooting in Watford. July 29th, one man dead and two others injured after a knife fight in East London. July 30th, a machete fight breaks out in Southend and protestors take to the streets in Southport following a brutal knife attack at a ballet school, which killed three girls and injured eight others.
As anybody familiar with the sorry decline of South Africa will be able to attest, decline is a process, not a moment. It consists of thousands of individual incidents, system failures, and personal tragedies. When ordinary citizens become accustomed to high levels of violence and criminality, it becomes harder to address the underlying causes of those issues. Adaptation, rather than prevention, becomes the name of the game — gated communities and private security for those who can afford it, atrophying police capacity for those who can’t.
Restoring the kind of high-trust, stable society that we once enjoyed will be a slow, long process — but it is a process which begins with a restoration of law and order. El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele demonstrates that, even while implementing misguided policies such as price controls, a country can still achieve stability and growth if it can maintain law and order. This simple principle gives businesses the confidence to prosper, ensures a harmonious public realm, and gives ordinary citizens — particularly women — peace of mind as they walk the streets.
Or perhaps that old maxim should be inverted — order and law. For, in the immortal words of Lee Kuan Yew (PBUH), “the hard realities of keeping the peace between man and man and between authority and the individual can be more accurately described if the phrase is inverted to ‘order and law’, for without order the operation of law is impossible.”
The process of renewal begins with a recognition of where we are, and where we deserve to be. Britain is now a country in which low-level criminality, and occasional explosive riots, are the norm. The public was dragged here, kicking and screaming, by a political class that refuses to recognise the impacts of our wishy-washy policies on criminal justice and migration. We deserve to be a high-trust, safe country again — and we can be, if we rediscover the value of law enforcement. We’re here because of choices made by our politicians. We can — and must — choose differently.
END
ENGLAND
Anti-Immigration Protests In UK Spreads As Elon Musk Warns “Civil War Is Inevitable”
SUNDAY, AUG 04, 2024 – 01:25 PM
European countries on the front lines, such as Greece and Italy, have been overwhelmed with migrants over the years due to failed open-border policies facilitated by radical leftist politicians. These unaccountable leaders (elected & unelected) have created the perfect storm of migrant crime and chaos across the continent.
For readers, who are not caught up with the news cycle, anti-immigration demonstrations have erupted across the UK following the horrific stabbing of three children in Southport by the 17-year-old son of Rwandan immigrants.
Here’s the latest reporting:
- Riots Erupt In England After Teenage Child Of Migrants Goes On Stabbing Spree
- UK Prime Minister Calls For Crackdown On Angry Brits – Violent Migrants Get A Pass
Now weekend anti-immigration demonstrations were seen in Liverpool, Bristol, Manchester, Hull, Belfast, Stoke, and other cities. Some turned violent while others did not.
Citizens are enraged with progressive officials who have promoted open borders, leading to an influx of migrants. This has resulted in increased crime and chaos and has adversely affected working-class families by pushing down wages for low-skilled jobs.
The Guardian quoted protesters on Saturday as chanting, “Get them out” and “Yorkshire.”
In the southwest city of Bristol, folks shouted, “We want our country back,” while others yelled, “England ’til I die.” There were small pockets of counter-protesters who called called anti-immigration protesters ‘racist’.
It seems that the working-class people in the West are beginning to speak up. After all, Christianity played a major role in the development of Western civilization.
On Sunday, Policing and Crime Minister Diana Johnson told Sky News that unrest is viewed as “criminal disorder” and that people participating were “thugs.” She said some protesters may face “imprisonment.”
Folks are not happy about the two-tier judicial system. Where have we seen this before?
Britain has officially gone.
·
573.7K Views
https://twitter.com/TheNorfolkLion/status/181760871680959308
Prime Minister Keir Starmer told the nation that the government will do “whatever it takes” to quell the violence.
On Saturday evening, Musk weighed in on the unrest, warning: “Civil war is inevitable.”
Musk’s assumption might not be too far off from what could be coming to Europe. In fact, far-left EU elites who have pushed years of open borders, flooding countries across the bloc with hundreds of thousands of migrants, if not millions, have intentionally or unintentionally stoked incredibly high divisions among the population over migration. Meanwhile, failed open-border policies have supercharged nationalist movements.
One interesting note: leftist corporate media are pushing that X has been the epicenter of fueling misinformation and disinformation, as it’s likely EU leftist officials are going to attempt to clamp down some more (remember the Olympics censorship) on Musk’s free speech efforts.
Mark my words – Britain’s leftist government will use this outbreak of violence to launch a crackdown on free speech, specifically against Elon Musk’s X platform.
·
2,624 View
Here comes the censorship.
Europe’s slow-motion crisis has undoubtedly gained momentum as social unrest ignites. This couldn’t have come at the worst possible timing as Russia and Ukraine are locked in a multi-year war in Eastern Europe with elevated risks of broadening conflict. Furthermore, risks of broadening conflict are also seen in the Middle East between Iran and Israel.
The West is in chaos, thanks to far-left lawmakers from the US to Europe who have promoted failed open-border policies – destroyed meritocracy – and still can’t describe what a woman is.
end
ENGLAND
UK Riots: The Agenda Becomes Clear…
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 02:00 AM
Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,
Those outside the UK might not have heard, but it’s been a violent week in the UK. Here’s a quick rundown of the official story so far:
Four days ago a 17-year-old allegedly walked into a children’s “Taylor Swift dance class” (whatever that might be) in Southport and started stabbing little girls, wounding 10 and killing 3.
It was initially reported the boy was a muslim immigrant.
This story was, however, reversed within hours, the new story “revealing” that he was actually born in Cardiff, the son of Rwandan immigrants. He was named as “Axel Muganwa Rudakubana” late yesterday.
His religious affiliation, if any, seems not to have been firmly established.
Another young man was, allegedly, arrested later while in possession of a machete and balaclava at a vigil for the victims. He was, again, reportedly Muslim.
This, allegedly, resulted in what are described as protests and riots, the destruction of a brick wall outside a mosque and the burning of a police van.
Further alleged riots subsequently sprang up in London and Hartlepool.
This is the current narrative. None of the details has been substantiated as yet, so how much you decide to believe is your personal preference at this point.
At OffG we reserve the right to be sceptical. Of everything.
There are a lot of unanswered questions, and the current level of “mourning” by government institutions and groups in no way directly affected by the tragedy always has a taint of the performative that shouldn’t be too quickly conflated with insincerity or worse.
And, of course, all of this is coming hot on the heels of the Manchester Airport incident, where police officers and Muslim youths allegedly clashed violently in as yet obscure circumstances.
Plus the violence in Whitechapel and Leeds a couple of weeks ago.
Then, as now, both sides were provided with adequate rage-bait to get them worked up.
Whatever the truth of this latest incident, and whatever long term aims it might be used to further, this “strategy of tension” has an immediate political agenda already becoming clear – and it’s as predictable as ever.
- Further limit social media/free speech
- Normalise constant surveillance
Attacking free speech is the ever-present, eternal agenda that comes before everything else and it’s been a real pile-on the last few days.
The Hill headlines “Misinformation floods social media in wake of breakneck news cycle”, Sky News went with “Southport attack misinformation fuels far-right discourse on social media”
ABC News reports: “Online misinformation fueled tensions over the stabbing attack in Britain that killed 3 children”
The Byline Times collectively scolds society’s negligence: “‘We All Need To Consider Our Role in the Wild West of Social Media Hypercriminality’”
The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (an NGO funded by the usual suspects) has timelined it all for our convenience: From rumours to riots: How online misinformation fuelled violence in the aftermath of the Southport attack
The BBC asks “Did social media fan the flames of riot in Southport?” and Telepgraph answers very much in the affirmative, cutting right to the heart of the matter [emphasis added]:
Unregulated social media disinformation is wrecking Britain – Free speech must come with accountability
The Times skips past establishing the problem right to apportioning blame: “Who is behind Southport social media storm — and can they be stopped?”
The Guardian has decided the answer is TikTok (and AI): “How TikTok bots and AI have powered a resurgence in UK far-right violence”
The New York Times demands to know what social media companies are going to do about it:
The U.K. Riots Were Fomented Online. Will Social Media Companies Act?
One particularly drunk uncle decided the whole thing is Putin’s fault, for some reason, but most of the fire is directed at Twitter/X.
Writing in Prospect, former-Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger claims “Elon Musk’s misinformation machine made the horrors of Southport much worse”, while Forbes wails “Elon Musk Isn’t Stopping Misinformation, He’s Helped Spread It”.
This is dual-purpose propaganda, it attacks the idea of free speech but also reinforces Musk/X’s totally false reputation as the savior of free expression.
You cannot begin to fathom how irritating it is to the ruling class that ordinary people are allowed to just say whatever they want whenever they want – including having the audacity to fact check the media in real time, with no repercussions at all.
That, more than anything else, has stalled the Great Reset in its tracks.
So it has to go.
Finally and forever.
It’s why almost everything in the news cycle – from disease to climate change – can allegedly be “solved” with censorship.
Because once free speech is abolished everything that comes afterward gets so much easier – including the second agenda being pushed right now: Mass surveillance and facial recognition technology.
When it comes to this secondary goal the media are yet to reach the “call for action” phase. They are still locked into “fearmongering”, with widespread warnings about nineteen future “far-right” marches and calls to proscribe Tommy Robinson’s EDL as a “terrorist organization”
Which, again, has the useful secondary effect of making this gentleman look more like a genuine force for opposition.
Funnily enough, UK Home Secretary Yvette Cooper was already discussing giving police “new powers to crackdown on antisocial behaviour” just a day before the Southport attack occurred.
But it fell to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer to formally lay it out in his address yesterday afternoon [transcript].
Pledging to counter the “far-right” with a new police division, and increased use of surveillance and facial recognition technology to “limit their movements”:
Wider deployment of facial recognition technology…And preventive action – criminal behaviour orders…To restrict their movements…
And firing a warning shot across the bows of social media:
And let me also say to large social media companies and those who run them…Violent disorder clearly whipped up online…That is also a crime. It’s happening on your premises. And the law must be upheld everywhere.
He even pointedly made clear his response wasn’t just about now or about countering the “far-right”, rather it was about ALL civil disobedience, for any reason:
A response both to the immediate challenge which is clearly driven by far-right hatred. But als “all violent disorder that flares up […] whatever the apparent cause or motivation – we make no distinction…Crime is crime.”
That means everything.
It means pro-free speech rallies, it means “bladerunners” cutting down ULEZ cameras. It means any potential anti-lockdown and/or anti-vaccine mandate protests during “the next pandemic”.
This is the beginning of a new crackdown on digital free speech and real-world protest…
and people are cheering him on, of course. Because they believe the State is our only shield from the nasty brick throwing baddies of the far-right.
To sum up the last three days in British politics for those not well versed in reading past headlines and propaganda:
For the cost of one broken wall and a burnt out police van, the new “Labour” government have just won public approval for new police powers and open season being called on what remains of our free speech – and they get to distract from the now-inevitable tax raises too.
Not a bad trade.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
/ISRAEL/HAMAS/IRAN
Iran: Hezbollah to deliberately target civilians in response to Shukr assassination
An Israeli official claimed that Iran’s attack was predicted to be more extreme compared to April’s and could extend to Israeli interests abroad.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 3, 2024 08:46Updated: AUGUST 3, 2024 14:58
The Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations told CBS News in an exclusive on Friday that the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah would begin deliberately targeting Israeli civilians – claiming that it had not done so until now.
Hezbollah has reportedly decided to increase its targets in attacks in response to the assassination of its commander, Fuad Shukr.
“Until now, Hezbollah and the regime have, in an unwritten understanding, practically adhered to certain limits in their military operations, meaning that confining their actions to border areas and shallow zones, targeting primarily military objectives,” a spokesperson from the delegation told CBS News. “However, the regime’s attack on Dahieh in Beirut and the targeting of a residential building marked a deviation from these boundaries. We anticipate that, in its response, Hezbollah will choose both broader and deeper targets, and will not restrict itself solely to military targets and means.”
Israel anticipates an attack
While Greek media reported on Friday that it had been warned by foreign intelligence to prepare for attacks on Israeli interests in the country, Iran’s mission told CBS News that Hezbollah would attack Israeli civilians only within Israeli territory.
Earlier this week, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was eliminated in an Iranian guest house. While Israel has not claimed responsibility for the attack, Iran has threatened to retaliate. This retaliation is predicted to come alongside attacks from Iran-backed terror groups in the region.
An Israeli official confirmed to CBS News that while Iran’s April 13 attack was thwarted, Israel was anticipating a “more aggressive” retaliation this time around – a retaliation which could extend to Israeli interests abroad.
end
IRAN/ISRAEL
Iran expected to attack Israel as early as Monday, US officials arrive in Middle East – report
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on Saturday that revenge will be “severe and at an appropriate time, place, and manner,” blaming the “terrorist Zionist regime” for Haniyeh’s death.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 4, 2024 04:19Updated: AUGUST 4, 2024 10:35
The Iranian attack on Israel in response to the assassination of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran last week is expected to come as early as Monday, three US and Israeli officials told Axios reporter Barak Ravid on Sunday.
Michael Erik Kurilla, commander of US Central Command, arrived in the Middle East early Sunday morning amid Hezbollah and Iran’s threats against Israel, Walla reported on Sunday, citing two senior US officials.
The aim of the visit, which was planned before the current escalation, is to prepare a coalition to counter such threats, the report added.
Israel on high alert at Iran threatens revenge
Several Iranian officials vowed that the country would avenge Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination, as Israel remains on high alert for a potential attack and the United States is sending additional forces to the region.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said on Saturday that revenge will be “severe and at an appropriate time, place, and manner,” blaming the “terrorist Zionist regime” for Haniyeh’s death.
In addition, the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the United Nations told CBS News in an exclusive on Friday that Hezbollah would begin deliberately targeting Israeli civilians – claiming that it had not done so until now.
The Lebanese-based terrorist group has reportedly decided to increase its targets in attacks in response to the assassination of its commander, Fuad Shukr.
“Until now, Hezbollah and the [Zionist] regime have, in an unwritten understanding, practically adhered to certain limits in their military operations, meaning that confining their actions to border areas and shallow zones, targeting primarily military objectives,” a spokesperson from the delegation told CBS News.
“However, the regime’s attack on Dahieh in Beirut and the targeting of a residential building marked a deviation from these boundaries,” the spokesperson said. “We anticipate that, in its response, Hezbollah will choose both broader and deeper targets, and will not restrict itself solely to military targets and means.”
An Israeli official told CBS News that while Iran’s April 13 attack was thwarted, Israel was anticipating a “more aggressive” retaliation this time around – a retaliation which could extend to Israeli interests abroad.
The US military will deploy additional fighter jets and Navy warships to the Middle East, the Pentagon said on Friday, as Washington seeks to bolster defenses following threats from Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah.
The US is bracing for Iran to make good on its vow to respond to the killing of Haniyeh two days ago in the Iranian capital Tehran.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin had approved sending additional Navy cruisers and destroyers – which can shoot down ballistic missiles – to the Middle East and Europe.
It is also sending an additional squadron of fighter jets to the Middle East.
“Austin has ordered adjustments to US military posture designed to improve US force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies,” the Pentagon said in a statement.
There had been speculation that the Pentagon might not replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group in the Middle East once it completed its ongoing deployment. But Austin decided to rotate in the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to replace it.
The Pentagon statement added it would increase readiness to deploy more land-based ballistic missile defenses.
The US military also intensified deployments prior to April 13, when Iran launched an attack on Israeli territory with drones and missiles. Still, the threat from Hezbollah in Lebanon could present unique challenges to any efforts by Washington to intercept drones and missiles, given the group’s vast arsenal and immediate proximity to the Jewish state.
At the time, Israel successfully shot down almost all of the roughly 300 drones and missiles with the help of the United States and other allies.
Earlier, Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said the US did not believe escalation was inevitable.
“I think we are being very direct in our messaging that certainly we don’t want to see heightened tensions, and we do believe there is an off ramp here – and that is that ceasefire deal,” Singh said.
An Israeli delegation will travel to Cairo in the coming days for negotiations to reach a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said on Friday.
END
I
ISRAEL/IRAN
Iran Says It Must ‘Punish’ Israel, Begins Clearing Airspace; Biden To Hold Situation Room Meeting
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 10:35 AM
President Joe Biden will convene his national security team in the situation room on Monday afternoon as the US has warned its top Middle East ally Israel that an Iranian attack is imminent. The defense chiefs of both countries – Gallant and Austin – are also discussing a “series of scenarios and corresponding defensive, offensive capabilities.” Biden also plans to speak with Jordan’s King Adbullah, the White House has confirmed.
Axios has reported Sunday that the message being conveyed abroad by Secretary of State Antony Blinken is that while Washington doesn’t know the exact timing of the the attacks, they could start as early as the next 24-48 hours, which would mean as soon as Monday.
Separately a Wall Street Journal was particularly alarming given it said that Iran has told Arab diplomats that “it didn’t care if the response triggered a war” when they tried to urge deescalation and calm. Foreign ministers from Lebanon and Jordan have been in Iran trying to talk officials down from initiating a major attack.
Tehran in a fresh statement has said its intent is not to escalate, but to ‘punish’ Israel for the Wednesday killing of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil, and that it won’t be dissuaded.
“Iran seeks to establish stability in the region, but this will only come with punishing the aggressor and creating deterrence against the adventurism of the Zionist regime,” according to the words of Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani.
Kanaani further blasted the United States and international community for providing continued support and cover to Israel, saying instead all countries should back pursuing the “punishment of the aggressor.”
Also, Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) chief Hossein Salami has warned that Israel was “digging its own grave” and that it “will receive punishment in due time.” He indicated that this was not just due to the Haniyeh killing, but a string of covert killings and sabotage actions against the Islamic Republic.
Iran on Monday reportedly began clearing out its airspace by issuing NOTAM alerts (Notice to Air Missions alert):
“Iran has issued a NOTAM, a notice alerting an aircraft of dangers en route, for the center, west, and northwest of the country, advising aircraft to change their routes.”
Iran has issued NOTAM’s over their airspace (see link below). Flights over Iran are thinning out. Air traffic over Iraq seems to have increased heavily. Nothing Follows. https://notams.faa.gov/dinsQueryWeb/queryRetrievalMapAction.do?reportType=Raw&retrieveLocId=oiix&actionType=notamRetrievalbyICAOs…
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https://twitter.com/angertab/status/182043223977298354
“Israel is the cradle of terrorism and it has been created out of killing and murder,” the IRCG’s Salami charged. “They think they can kill the nuclear scientists of another country and impede that country’s path toward peaceful nuclear technology. They think that by killing the leader of a resistance group… in another country will give them more time to live.”
A wave of major airline cancelations at both Beirut and Tel Aviv airports have meanwhile left foreigners and others seeking to exit these countries on the brink of war scrambling and in some cases stranded. But things at Ben Gurion still appear somewhat normal in terms of activity. A Sunday assessment of the situation at Ben Gurion is as follows:
For the time being, Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport is working as normal, and Israel’s airspace remains open. The Civil Aviation Authority of Israel said in a statement “The security situation allows flights to and from Israel. Some of the foreign airlines have suspended or reduced their flights to Israel, for their own internal reasons. Travelers should take into account that their return to Israel may be delayed, and should keep in touch with the airlines and update themselves about their flights.”
Unverified reports say that Beirut’s international airport is currently more chaotic and crowded (also as it is smaller than Tel Aviv’s) after a spate of foreign and Western embassies issued alerts telling their citizens to immediately get out while there are still tickets available.
A G7 statement is pleading for peace…
On August 5 (local time August 4), #G7 Foreign Ministers’ Statement on the situation in the Middle East was issued. #G7Statement #MiddleEast https://mofa.go.jp/press/release/pressite_000001_00472.html…
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6,958 Views
As for the potential big Iran attack, this time it is expected that Hezbollah in southern Lebanon will play a bigger role this time (compared to the April 13th ballistic missile and drone strikes), with Axios writing that “Blinken stressed that the US believes Iran and Hezbollah will both retaliate.”
ISRAEL/IRAN/HOUTHIS
Suspected Houthi Missile Hits Container Ship; Rebel Forces Claim US MQ-9 Drone Downed Amid Regional War Risks
SUNDAY, AUG 04, 2024 – 04:55 PM
The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’ top leader, in Tehran last week has brought the Middle East closer than ever to the brink of all-out war ahead of the US presidential elections in November. After a two-week lull, Iran-backed Houthis targeted a Liberian-flagged container ship traveling through the Gulf of Aden, and rebel forces claimed to have downed a US military spy drone this weekend.
Bloomberg reported a Houthi missile struck the container ship “Groton” just above the waterline, causing minor damage to the hull.
British maritime agency UKMTO said Groton was “hit by a missile,” adding, “No fires, water ingress or oil leaks have been observed.”
Bloomberg maritime data shows Groton left Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates about a week ago, bound for Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The incident occurred on Saturday. Following the incident, the ship’s transponder was turned off, and the vessel’s location only reappeared on Sunday—with Groton now moored in the East African country of Djibouti.
Houthi military spokesman Brig. Gen. Yahya Saree claimed the attack on Groton on X on Sunday morning. He also said rebel forces “shot down an American MQ-9 aircraft.”
Possible footage of the downed MQ9 drone.
Bloomberg Noted, “The rebels have targeted more than 70 vessels with missiles and drones in a campaign that has killed four sailors. They have seized one vessel and sunk two in the time since.”
Meanwhile, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group is set to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group in the Middle East.
Eight months after the Biden administration launched Operation Prosperity Guardian to ensure freedom of navigation in the southern Red Sea, the Houthi threats remain ongoing. The clogging of one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints has resulted in a supply shock.
One of the biggest fears the Biden administration has is if Iran launches a retaliatory attack on Israel that sends Brent crude prices above $100/bbl. This threat was detailed in early March under the note “The Weaponization Of Crude Could Trigger The Next Financial Shock.”
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Waves Of Ukraine Civilians Flee As Russia Makes Steady Gains In East
BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, AUG 03, 2024 – 07:15 PM
Regional and international sources, including Reuters, continue to report on Russian forces making steady gains in Ukraine’s east. But now these gains are coming so rapidly that Ukrainian civilians are having to hastily flee their homes amid the onslaught.
Reuters for example speaks of a “wave of people fleeing Russian advances on several fronts in the eastern region of Donetsk, as Moscow batters” steadily across Ukraine’s defensive front lines.
“Pressing home their advantages in manpower and weapons, Russian forces have fought their way towards major towns and supply routes in pursuit of their goal of full control of Ukraine’s industrialized and mineral-rich Donbas,” the report continues.
Ukrainian officials have of late admitted that Russia has almost captured and solidified its hold over all of Donetsk Oblast. President Zelensky on Friday acknowledged Pokrovsk sector to be scene of the “most severe battles” and now a prime target for Moscow. According to the latest gains:
One recent advance has allowed Russia to open a salient only 20 km (12 miles) from Pokrovsk, an important logistical hub and still home to about 60,000 people. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Thursday that Pokrovsk was now Russia’s main target.
Moscow has claimed control of four villages east of Pokrovsk in the last week. Ukraine did not comment on those claims.
Russian soldiers have reached the edge of Toretsk, where the regional governor said a week ago that only 3,500 people were left, just over 10% of the prewar population. More have since been evacuated by authorities and humanitarian organizations.
As for offensive actions, Kiev as appeared somewhat helpless on key front lines in the east, and so instead has chosen to continue escalating its highly provocative cross-border operations.
On Saturday Russian officials said that some 55 drones were launched against the Rostov region, with at least 36 of them being intercepted.
But reportedly a number of targets still suffered damage. Ukraine says it successfully degraded Russian military capabilities across three regions, including strikes on an airfield and fuel depots.
Local Russia
RUSSIA/USA
Putin’s Top Defense Officials Are In Tehran Amid Countdown To Zero Hour
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 01:15 PM
On Monday as the Middle East approaches zero hour of Iran’s expected major retaliation attack on Israel, there is a Russian defense delegation in Tehran, and a US defense delegation in Tel Aviv. How is that for symmetry among enemies?
Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s ex-Defense Minister and current national Security Council secretary, is meeting with senior Iranian military and security officials, as well as newly sworn-in president Masoud Pezeshkian.
Russia’s RIA Novosti news agency described the focus of the talks as “strengthening bilateral cooperation in a wide range of spheres including security” – and the meetings come amid growing speculation that Russia is actively helping the Islamic Republic to thwart potential Israeli attacks.
Russia has “strongly condemned” the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last Wednesday. Iran considered the brazen act as tantamount to assassinating an official head of state while on an official visit. President Pezeshkian has meanwhile hailed Moscow as a “valued strategic ally.”
There has of late been much speculation that President Putin is ready to give greater support to America’s rivals and enemies in the Middle East as ‘payback’ for Washington’s support to Ukraine over the past more than two years.
Also on Monday, the Israeli military confirmed that head of US Central Command, General Michael Kurilla, is in the country to assess the security situation against the backdrop of the potential attack from Iran.
Kurilla met with Israeli army chief, Lieutenant-General Herzi Halevi, and “held a joint situational assessment on security and strategic issues, as well as joint preparations in the region, as part of the response to threats in the Middle East,” according to a statement carried in Israeli press.
Both Israel and Iran have been rallying global allies to their respective sides. Iran on Monday announced it has called for an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation to discuss the assassination of Haniyeh and to gain support for a military response. That meeting is planned for Wednesday.
Quite the split-screen today:
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https://twitter.com/JasonMBrodsky/status/182049756253490404
The Guardian has said Tehran officials will at the meeting attempt convince Arab nations to give political backing to its right of retribution. This strongly suggests in the meantime that a major attack likely won’t come Monday or Tuesday, but the anticipation could stretch into later this week.
The same publication notes that Biden is “due to meet his national security team in Washington at 2.15 pm local time, approximately 10pm in Tehran, by which time it is likely to be clear if Iran is planning to launch an attack overnight.”
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
This is huge!! Scientists have developed a new compound that kills flesh eating and other drug resistant bacteria.
(EpochTimes))
Scientists Develop New Compound That Kills Flesh-Eating And Other Drug-Resistant Bacteria
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Marina Zhang via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Twenty years ago, professor Fredrik Almqvist, an organic chemistry professor at Umeå University in Sweden, was asked by his collaborating researchers at Washington University in St. Louis (WashU) to design a compound that would prevent urinary tract infections, which are often caused by Gram-negative bacterial infections.
Almqvist’s team created various compounds that were then screened for their effects.
Rather than controlling Gram-negative bacteria adherence, they found some of the compounds were highly effective at killing various Gram-positive bacteria. These included multidrug-resistant strains classified as concerning threats by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
The researchers singled out one compound, which they named PS757. Lab testing has shown PS757 to be effective against methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA), vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecalis (VRE), multidrug-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae, and erythromycin-resistant Streptococcus pyogenes (S. pyogenes), among others.
They further studied the effect of PS757 on S. pyogenes, a potentially flesh-eating bacteria, in animals.
Kills Flesh-Eating Bacteria
S. pyogenes can cause a wide range of infections, from mild localized ones to potentially fatal soft-tissue infections, or necrotizing fasciitis.
In an animal study published Friday in Science Advances, researchers showed that the compound may help control the spread of the flesh-eating bacteria in rats and aid in recovery.
Rats with PS757 injected into their skin had more minor ulcers and open wounds. They also healed faster than those not treated with the compound.
S. pyogenes causes flesh-eating-like wounds by releasing toxins that kill soft tissue. These wounds are treated with antibiotics and surgical interventions to remove the infected tissues.
The animal study did not assess PS757’s effects on other bacterial infections. However, the research team’s previous laboratory studies showed that the compound was effective against other Gram-positive bacteria.
Current antibiotics for S. pyogenes control infections by blocking the bacteria’s toxins. However, antibiotic resistance has been on the rise. Lab experiments showed that PS757 worked as well as conventional antibiotics like vancomycin and clindamycin in killing S. pyogenes.
In necrotizing fasciitis caused by S. pyogenes, “clindamycin is the drug of choice due to its ability to suppress production of potent exotoxins,” Dr. Dennis Stevens, professor of medicine at the University of Washington’s Division of Allergy & Infectious Diseases, who was not involved in the study, told The Epoch Times via email.
Resistance to clindamycin has been reported in China, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and linezolid, another antibiotic, is a useful alternative, he said.
Dr. Stevens said the study used a strain of S. pyogenes rarely associated with toxic shock or necrotizing infection.
“Looks promising in their model. No toxicity studies yet,” he told The Epoch Times.
While the compound is far from ready to be made into a pharmaceutical, the authors hope that by conducting further research, they will be able to form a new antibiotic class for treating various drug-resistant bacterial infections.
A Broad Gram-Positive Bacteria-Killer
Almqvist designed the compound by making it mimic a bacterial peptide.
With this peptide as the base, he and his team added various components to change the compound’s properties. Compound PS757 is their latest variation.
“They work against a broad spectrum of Gram-positive bacteria, including the ones that already were running out of antibiotics to treat, like VRE and MRSA,” Michael Caparon, a professor of molecular microbiology at WashU and one of the study’s senior authors, told The Epoch Times.
Bacteria can be divided into two major classes: Gram-positive and Gram-negative. Gram-negative bacteria have an extra outer membrane, while Gram-positive do not.
“The bactericidal effect so far on wild-type bacteria is only seen with the Gram-positives, but we are pretty certain that we can also develop them further and affect Gram-negative bacteria,” Almqvist told The Epoch Times.
Caparon said that PS757 has several unique properties that may make it more effective than other antibiotics if research is successful.
“[These properties are] particularly effective against what are called persister cells,” living bacteria that have stopped growing, he said.
Most antibiotics on the market kill bacteria that are actively growing and replicating. They are ineffective against non-growing bacteria, which can contribute to bacterial resistance.
When a bacterial population is treated with antibiotics, “about 99 percent of them” die, Caparon said, but a small percentage of bacteria—persister cells—live on.
“When the antibiotic goes away, [the persister cells] grow out again and start the infection all over again,” Caparon explained.
PS757, however, has also been shown to kill persister cells, which may reduce antibiotic resistance.
Another unique aspect of the compound is that it can kill bacteria in biofilms. Biofilms are created when bacteria attach to a surface and form a community.
An example of a biofilm is the slick masses that grow in the moist areas of bathrooms.
Bacteria in biofilms are more resistant to antibiotics, often requiring a higher dose to kill them, but the researchers found that PS757 could kill these biofilm bacteria even without increasing the dose, Caparon said.
Only Early Developments
Almqvist and Caparon told The Epoch Times that much more work is needed before the compound is ready for pharmaceutical use.
“In this particular study, we don’t have what’s called the candidate drug; it’s not at that level. This is more like a really cool starting point towards a candidate drug,” Almqvist said.
He said that more work is needed to fine-tune the final compound, as is more research to understand how the drug behaves, its dosage, why and how it kills the bacteria, and how to optimize its effects.
With some drug designs, researchers know why the drug works because its functions were designed into the drug from the get-go. With PS757, however, the properties were discovered unintentionally.
Another way to find out how the drug works is to look for bacteria resistant to it. By understanding why the bacteria are resistant, researchers may determine why the drug works. However, PS757 has been successful to the point that no resistant bacteria have yet to be detected, making exploring its mechanism all the more complicated.
Almqvist, Caparon, and the other senior author, Scott Hultgren, have patented the compound used in the study and licensed it to a company with the expectation of facilitating pharmaceutical development and clinical trials.
end
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Shitting on your beaches? You Canadians angry that illegals due to Trudeau (the tampon-man who wants all Canadian men having tampons in bathrooms)? Stay tuned, soon they will be raping your daughters
and slitting your throats…I wonder what Canadians will think then of Trudeau, the tampon-man…who has lit the funeral pyres of Canadians…defecating on your beach will be a joke; get coffins ready
| DR. PAUL ALEXANDERAUG 2 |
Only in Canada…
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| Democrats Panic over Concerns Kamala Harris’ Running Mate Will Lose in Head-to-Head with VanceThe political landscape surrounding the 2024 presidential election is in upheaval since President Joe Biden dropped his campaign for the Democrat nomination.READ MORE |
| Trump Praises ‘Computer Genius’ for Chart That Serendipitously Saved His Life during Would-Be AssassinationPresident Donald Trump has paid special tribute to the person who produced the chart that caused him to turn his head away from a would-be assassin’s bullet.READ MORE |
| Kamala Harris Hidden from Media as She Prepares for CoronationKamala Harris is being hidden from the media as the Democrats prepare to undemocratically select the vice president as their nominee for the 2024 election.READ MORE |
| Texas Rancher Sues Biden & Harris over Property Damage Caused by Illegal AliensA Texas rancher is suing Democrat President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris for the damage caused to his property by a “flood” of illegal aliens pouring over the open border.READ MORE |
| Whistleblower Exposes Secret Service Cover-Up: Ronald Rowe ‘Personally’ Ordered Agents Cut from Trump RallyA Secret Service whistleblower has just dropped explosive new allegations to expose a major cover-up at the federal agency regarding the events surrounding the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Slovakian Swimmer Tamara Potocka Collapses Suddenly at Paris OlympicsSlovakian swimmer Tamara Potocka has collapsed suddenly at the 2024 Paris Olympics.READ MORE |
| ‘The View’ Hosts Melt Down over Trump’s Black Journalists Convention Appearance: ‘You Can’t Come Back!’The co-hosts of “The View” suffered a collective meltdown in response to President Donald Trump’s appearance at the 2024 National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) Conference on Wednesday.READ MORE |
| Ohio’s 2024 Election Audit See Hundreds of Noncitizens Purged from Voter RollsAn audit ahead of the critical 2024 election in November has exposed major issues with Ohio’s voter rolls.READ MORE |
| Alabama Democrat Arrested on Multiple Voter Fraud ChargesAuthorities in Alabama have arrested a Democrat candidate on seven felony counts of voter fraud.READ MORE |
| Women’s Olympic Boxing Match Ends in 46 Seconds after Male Fighter Brutalizes Female Opponent: ‘This Is Unjust!’A women’s boxing match at the “woke” Paris Olympics came to an abrupt halt after just 46 seconds when a female boxer was pulverized by her male opponent.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Major Study Confirms Covid Shots Killed 17 Million PeopleThe largest global excess mortality study in history has confirmed that Covid mRNA shots have now killed a staggering 17 million people.READ MORE |
| 9-Year-Old Boy Dies ‘Unexpectedly and without Warning’A 9-year-old Georgia boy has tragically died suddenly “without warning,” his devastated family has revealed.READ MORE |
| Vance Shuts Down CNN Reporter Asking about Kamala’s Race-Switching: ‘Harris Is a Chameleon’Republican vice presidential candidate Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) shut down a CNN reporter who tried to make him undermine President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Democrats Panic over Concerns Kamala Harris’ Running Mate Will Lose in Head-to-Head with VanceThe political landscape surrounding the 2024 presidential election is in upheaval since President Joe Biden dropped his campaign for the Democrat nomination.READ MORE |
| Trump Praises ‘Computer Genius’ for Chart That Serendipitously Saved His Life during Would-Be AssassinationPresident Donald Trump has paid special tribute to the person who produced the chart that caused him to turn his head away from a would-be assassin’s bullet.READ MORE |
| Kamala Harris Hidden from Media as She Prepares for CoronationKamala Harris is being hidden from the media as the Democrats prepare to undemocratically select the vice president as their nominee for the 2024 election.READ MORE |
| Texas Rancher Sues Biden & Harris over Property Damage Caused by Illegal AliensA Texas rancher is suing Democrat President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris for the damage caused to his property by a “flood” of illegal aliens pouring over the open border.READ MORE |
| Whistleblower Exposes Secret Service Cover-Up: Ronald Rowe ‘Personally’ Ordered Agents Cut from Trump RallyA Secret Service whistleblower has just dropped explosive new allegations to expose a major cover-up at the federal agency regarding the events surrounding the attempted assassination of President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Slovakian Swimmer Tamara Potocka Collapses Suddenly at Paris OlympicsSlovakian swimmer Tamara Potocka has collapsed suddenly at the 2024 Paris Olympics.READ MORE |
| ‘The View’ Hosts Melt Down over Trump’s Black Journalists Convention Appearance: ‘You Can’t Come Back!’The co-hosts of “The View” suffered a collective meltdown in response to President Donald Trump’s appearance at the 2024 National Association of Black Journalists (NABJ) Conference on Wednesday.READ MORE |
| Ohio’s 2024 Election Audit See Hundreds of Noncitizens Purged from Voter RollsAn audit ahead of the critical 2024 election in November has exposed major issues with Ohio’s voter rolls.READ MORE |
| Alabama Democrat Arrested on Multiple Voter Fraud ChargesAuthorities in Alabama have arrested a Democrat candidate on seven felony counts of voter fraud.READ MORE |
| Women’s Olympic Boxing Match Ends in 46 Seconds after Male Fighter Brutalizes Female Opponent: ‘This Is Unjust!’A women’s boxing match at the “woke” Paris Olympics came to an abrupt halt after just 46 seconds when a female boxer was pulverized by her male opponent.READ MORE |
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Major Study: Covid Shots Caused 620% Spike in Deadly Heart FailureA major new study has revealed that Covid mRNA shots have caused a huge global spike in deadly heart failure and neurological disorder cases.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| First Lady Jill Biden Busted for Misusing Donor FundsIn a secretly recorded video, Joyce DeCerce, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) Compliance Manager, admitted that First Lady Jill Biden will “just take it out of the general DNC account” to fund her personal trip back from France.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| BREAKING NEWS: F-16 Fighter Jet Forced to Drop Fuel Tanks Over Michigan; Explosion Occurs in Lake HuronAn F-16 fighter jet from the Ohio Air National Guard had to drop two fuel tanks over Michigan after suffering an emergency.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| ‘Shark Tank’ Star & Investor Kevin O’Leary: ‘America Will Turn into Canada If Kamala Harris Is Elected’Kevin O’Leary, star of “Shark Tank” and investor, claimed Tuesday on Fox News Channel’s “Jesse Watters Primetime” that if Kamala Harris wins the election in November, the United States become Canada.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Texas Rancher Files Lawsuit Against Biden Admin Over Property Damage Caused by Illegal AliensA Texas rancher has sued President Joe Biden and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), alleging that their policies have led to “the largest influx of illegal aliens in American history.”READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
The End Of The Beginning
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 11:35 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
The end of the beginning
“Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.” – Churchill
Last week saw pure market panic. Rates markets are now pricing in 50bps cuts from the Fed at multiple 2024 meetings, or even intra-meeting: it’s not higher for longer, but when we see zero rates and QE again, apparently.
July payrolls were weak (114K vs. 175K expected) with a surprise rise in unemployment to 4.3% triggering the so-called Sahm ‘recession’ rule –suddenly a thing– after initial jobless claims had also risen more than expected. However, there might have been distortions to data from Hurricane Beryl: if so, August’s data will be better. True, there are also issues over the BLS births/deaths model’s ‘assumed’ jobs, and revisions, and payrolls stripping out demographic change, whether official or unofficial – but they didn’t appear Friday. In short, the labor market is cooling, but not collapsing, which is what the Fed wants.
We also saw a plunge in tech stocks. Few in markets or financial media had much bad to say when that bubble(?) was blowing, but when things flip, they demand rate cuts: heads I win, tails I don’t lose. But taking the froth off stocks is also what the Fed wants.
A few months ago, USD/JPY chatter was 170 or 180, because the BOJ couldn’t hike much without blowing itself and the Japanese economy up, while the Fed couldn’t cut much. Regardless of the 15bp BOJ rate hike and hawkish rhetoric from Governor Ueda last week, driving markets to talk of 140 in USD/JPY, that remains true. We already have a plunge in Japanese stocks which hardly backs demand-side inflation there; and we know services-demand and supply-side inflation pressures still lurk in the US. Short covering alongside unwinding the Yen carry trade that’s lifted US (and other) stocks surely doesn’t have much further to run; then huge rate differentials will kick in again – unless the Fed is going back to Covid-era monetary policy.
Even if so, it’s still just the end of the beginning.
With populism surging, can Western society take a deep recession? And we would start with huge fiscal deficits and post-WW2 levels of public debt. More austerity would create chaos, so, we’d surely see massive state spending backed by the central bank instead. That would make bond bulls happy; but it would also make the case to the public –and the parts of the world that *makes the things we buy*– that our system is broken. We can push yields down and hold them there, as post-2008: but only with weaker currencies vs. hard assets, key EM FX, and commodities – which means supply-side inflation.
Moreover, beware more populist anger. This is already a problem in the EU, and even the UK just saw violent country-wide riots against mass migration and “Two-Tier” policing. PM Starmer was head of the Crown Prosecution Service during the last riots in 2011, and cracked down hard: yet, as a journalist asked him, will another hardline approach, with no change to other policies, resolve this issue or pour oil on troubled waters? Won’t ‘vanilla’ rate cuts and QE just allow house prices and stocks to rise further, with that inequality leading to more anger?
So, the West still might have to adopt protectionism and/or more closed borders to reflate and recycle capital internally, as already proposed in the US. In which case, it’s the 1930s redux or 1930’s lite: that’s not the bullish ending markets foresee when they shout, “rate cuts!” and “QE!” in a political vacuum.
From seas of red to the Red Sea: geopolitics is risk-off bids for bonds, but also with an inflationary tail risk. As soon as today, say some, or symbolically on August 12-13, the Jewish fast of Tisha B’Av mourning past calamities, Iran and its Axis of Resistance will launch another missile and drone barrage at Israel. US and European forces will again help shoot these down, but many are expected to get through, and Israel is prepared to strike back hard. Its government has set up a secure bunker, and across the political spectrum there is a view that full war with Hezbollah and/or Iran is required to break the strategic encirclement Tehran has spent years creating around it (and which the US and EU haven’t stopped because they don’t want any more regional confrontation.) Meanwhile, other reports have Iran telling all those entreating it to hold back that will attack hard regardless of whether this causes a war or not; and that Hezbollah was told by Tehran to deliberately target civilian populations. It seems war looms.
Israel will be hit hard if so; but Lebanon far harder; and the US has reportedly warned Iran that Israel could bomb its key energy infrastructure, as it did to the Houthis. Indeed, with Israel (deliberately) lacking US bunker-buster bombs needed to hit Iran’s nuclear sites under mountains, perhaps only oil infrastructure is left to aim for. In a larger war, Axis forces may strike Gulf energy to try to force the West to stay Israel’s hand. In short, we could see the start of a violent oil-shock ahead, with no idea of how it then ends.
One can understand Western reticence about doing anything offensive rather than defensive, especially if Russia and China support Iran, forcing the US to either divert from Ukraine and Taiwan or cede an ally’s security and its own regional influence. Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Jarida has claims from a senior Iranian source, which may be disinformation, that the US is desperate to find a way out and back to the 2015 JCPOA deal, and blames Israel for this all, not Iran. However, rapprochement takes two or it’s just retreat, and certainly no deterrent to further violence. On which note, major US non-NATO ally Qatar, which houses Hamas leaders, has reportedly banned any military use of the US Al-Udeid airbase located there vs. Iran.
Meanwhile, other headlines underline how much the market misses on geopolitics in general:
- Astoundingly, the UK Ministry of Defence hired BELARUSSIAN coders to write the software for its nuclear submarines – because ‘they were cheap’? That’s neoliberalism for you, if so.
- The recent Russian-US spy swap incentivizes future hostage taking, and revealed deep agent children growing up abroad unaware they were even Russian until exchanged back to Moscow – how many more are out there? You think none?
Having started with Churchill, I end this Daily warning we have only seen the end of the beginning on multiple fronts with the words of the Bolshevik revolutionary Trotsky:
“You may not be interested in war, but war may be interested in you.”
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
T
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Venezuela
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0963 UP 0.0061
USA/ YEN 142.42 DOWN 4.004 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15
GBP/USA 1.2764 UP 0.0025
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3849 DOWN .0015 (CDN DOLLAR UP 15 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 44.64 PTS OR 1.54%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 247.15 PTS OR 1.46%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 3.81%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 247/15 PTS OR 1.46 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 44/64 PTS OR 1.54%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 2.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 4451.28 PTS OR 12.40%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2389.00
silver:$26.71
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 102.25 DOWN 75 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.853% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.757% DOWN 19 AND 4/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.084 UP 2 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.665 UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1545 UP 0 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0971 UP 0.0065 OR 65 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.00 DOWN 3.433 OR YEN IS UP 343 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.8675 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0039 OR 39 BASIS pts to 1.3826
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1201 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1145)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.42 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.757…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.772% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.052 DOWN 6 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.871 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;30 AM 2409.80
SILVER AT 11;30: 27.40
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 166.48 PTS OR 2,04%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 322.22 PTS OR 1.83%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 102.61 PTS OR 1.42 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 249.50 OR 1.67%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 725.30 PTS OR 2.27% PTS
WTI Oil price 73.18 12EST/
Brent Oil: 76.80 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.81 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 36/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1545 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.8675 UP 2 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: HOLIDAY
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0955 UP 0.0050 OR 50 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2742 DOWN 0.0016 OR 16 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.873 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.757
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143,79 DOWN 2.699 YEN UP 270BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3820 DOWN 0.0041//CDN dollar UP 41 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.53
Brent OIL: 77.08
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.765
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.064%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 3.891
CDN 10 YR RATE XXX DOWN XXX BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.43 DOWN 55 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.34 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.87 DOWN 0 AND 7/100 roubles
GOLD 2,408.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 27.92 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 1,033.99 PTS OR 2.60%
NASDAQ DOWN 549.69 PTS OR 2.96 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 38.89 UP 15.00 PTS OR 66.27%
GLD: $222.55 DOWN 2.79 OR 1.24%
SLV/ $24.86 DOWN 1.18 OR 4.23%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Monday Massacre Brought To You By Kazuo’s Carry-Chaos, Kamalanomics, & Jump’s Crypto Dump
BY TYLER DURDEN
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Well it started with a Japanic… but really Asian markets were just playing catch down to Friday’s moves. Yen strength (carry trade unwind accelerates post-BoJ) weighed on stocks and TOPIC had its worst day since the 1987 collapse…
Source: Bloomberg
How much more pain will Kazuo Ueda unleash on the Japanese public before he pivots dovish once again
“You can’t unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads. That is the impression markets give us this morning,” Kit Juckes, chief foreign exchange strategist at Societe Generale, said in a research note published Monday.
In the US, the narrative transition from ‘soft landing’ to ‘hard landing’ stoked the flames of the sell-off and some pointed to Kamala Harris overtaking Trump in the prediction markets as exacerbating equity weakness.
Source: Bloomberg
At their worst, Small Caps and Nasdaq were down 6% today, before dip-buyers stepped in and lipstick’d this pig of a day. By the close, all the majors were down around 3-3.5% on the day…
Goldman Sachs trading desk noted tht overall activity levels are surging up +63% vs. the trailing 2 weeks in line with market volumes up +99% vs the 10dma. Our floor tilts +6% better to buy, driven by HFs while LOs just flipped from net seller to net buyer.
- HFs are +11% better to buy and shockingly are better to buy in every sector ex-REITs. Demand heaviest in Tech, Cons Disc, Comm Svcs & Fins which are all +$100mm net better to buy
- LOs are now flat on the day after starting out -10% better for sale. A bit more dispersion in their sector skews, buying Comm Svcs, Cons Disc, HCare & Fins while selling Tech, Staples, Mats & Macro Products
The S&P closed below its critical CTA pivot threshold…
The S&P 500 broke below its 100DMA…
Nasdaq broke below its 200DMA but found a supportive bid there…
“Most Shorted” stocks were slammed again at the open
Source: Bloomberg
Mag7 stocks are now down a stunning $3 trillion from their record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
NVDA is now down 35% from its record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘Ai trade’ is rapidly unwinding, breaking below its 200DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX surged to 65 intraday – its highest since COVID lockdown chaos – before vol-sellers stepped in (but it ended up around 35 still!)…
Source: Bloomberg
VVIX exploded higher – near all-time record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
The Treasury market was chaotic today (but you’d barely notice if you were checking close to close). Yields collapsed by almost 20bps intraday… twice… before squeezing back higher and ending pratically unchanged. The long-end ended up outperforming on the day (30Y -4bps, 2Y +1bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve (2s10s) briefly dis-inverted today for the first time since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar dropped again, testing the mid-May lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil plunged back to test its lows since February today ($71 handle for WTI)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was monkeyhammered lower today too, breaking below $2400 before finding support…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto markets were clubbed like a baby seal overnight amid reports that Jump Trading was liquidating its holdings. Bitcoin crashed below $50,000 for the first time since February (basically erasing all the post-ETF gains), then bounced notably off those lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the market appears to be testing The Fed – demanding almost 140bps of cuts in 2024 at the peak today (as 2025 cuts are brought forward)…
Source: Bloomberg
Now, don’t forget that this is the third time the market has gone to the limit on Fed rate cuts in the last year. Will Powell fold and unleash the Put?
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
SOFT DATA.. pay no attention.
ISM Services Survey Surged In July…
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 10:06 AM
After the shitshow of Soft Survey data on the Manufacturing sector last week, analysts are hoping for some heroics from the Services sector. Amid the collapse in ‘hard’ data, soft survey data remains the last great hope for saving Bidenomics (with all hopes on a big rebound in ISM from last month’s plunge)…
- S&P Global US Services PMI dropped from 55.3 to 55.0 (below 56.0 expectations)
- ISM Services PMI surged back from 48.8 to 51.4 (510.0 exp)
Source: Bloomberg
And while payrolls and orders hard data have been a disaster, the soft-survey data shows orders and employment rising…
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“Another strong expansion of business activity in the service sector, which over the past two months has enjoyed its best growth spell for over two years, contrasts with the deteriorating picture seen in the manufacturing sector, where output came close to stalling in July.
“While manufacturers are reporting reduced demand for goods, this in part reflects a further switching of spending from consumers towards services such as travel and recreation. However, healthcare and financial services are also reporting buoyant growth, fueling a wide divergence between the manufacturing and service economies.
“Thanks to the relatively larger size of the service sector, the July PMI surveys are indicative of the economy continuing to grow at the start of the third quarter at a rate comparable to GDP rising at a solid annualized 2.2% pace.
Finally, and certainly not inconsequential, service providers signalled a further sharp rise in input costs, with the rate of inflation quickening to a four-month high.
The latest increase was also sharper than the series average. Respondents indicated that higher wage and transportation costs had been the main factors pushing up input prices.
So take your pick – Services growth slowing (S&P Global) or surging (ISM) with prices rising sharply (S&P Global) or not much at all (ISM)…
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
BRANDON SMITH…
a must read!!
The Trigger For WWIII Just Arrived – What Are The Implications For Americans?
August 3, 2024 3 Comments
By Brandon Smith
If the year of 2024 has proven anything so far, it’s that our worries about the potential outbreak of WWIII are absolutely reasonable. The skeptics making accusations of “conspiracy theory” and “doom and gloom” have been proven wrong yet again. The geopolitical atmosphere is turning sour fast.
I still don’t think a lot of people realize how truly volatile the situation is globally right now. From my point of view, WWIII has already begun, at least in economic terms.
Let’s not forget the fact that Ukraine is essentially a proxy for all of NATO against Russia. And, the situation in the Middle East is about to become much worse. Because of the alliances involved and the fragile nature of global energy exports there is a danger of systemic collapse should a wider war break out between Israel and multiple Arab nations. It appears that such a war is imminent.
But why should Americans care? It’s pretty simple – War spurs shortages, and shortages in the middle of a stagflationary crisis are a very bad thing.
Sanctions against Russia affect around 10% of the global oil market and around 12% of global natural gas consumption. But so far all that oil and natural gas is still flowing around the world, only the trade routes have changed. The Middle East, on the other hand, accounts for over 35% of the global oil market and 18% of the natural gas market. Widespread chaos in this region would mean economic crisis on a scale not seen in a century.
Think we have problems with stagflation now? Just wait until energy prices go to the moon.
Around 30% of all oil exports travel through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage which a nation like Iran can easily block for months at a time. Sinking a few larger vessels in the strait would obstruct all cargo ship traffic and oil tanker traffic. Trying to clean up the mess would be difficult because artillery, which is almost impossible to intercept, can rain down from Iran on any vessels trying to drag sunken ships out of the way.
Iran has mutual defense pacts with multiple governments in the region including Lebanon and Syria, along with military ties to Russia. The Turkish government is unlikely to allow western troops to use their airspace to launch attacks. The US military presence in Afghanistan is gone and the Iraqi government will never allow foreign troops to use their land to come to the aid of Israel.
This greatly limits the west’s launch points for an offensive large enough to blitz Iran. The vast majority of attacks would be from the air, and if the Russians start supplying Iran with better radar and missile technology then there’s no guarantees Israel or the US would gain full control of the air space. In other words, if a wider war breaks out it will not end for YEARS and it’s going to be fought on the ground.
Of course, most establishment experts have claimed that the situation will never escalate to that point and that the threat of direct confrontation between Israel and Iran is minimal. I have been predicting the opposite for a number of reasons, just as I predicted that there was a high chance of war in Ukraine months before it happened.
In October of 2023 in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ I warned that a multi-front war was about to develop between Israel and various Muslim nations including Lebanon and Iran. I noted:
“Israel is going to pound Gaza into gravel, there’s no doubt about that. A ground invasion will meet far more resistance than the Israelis seem to expect, but Israel controls the air and Gaza is a fixed target with limited territory. The problem for them is not the Palestinians, but the multiple war fronts that will open up if they do what I think they are about to do (attempted sanitization). Lebanon, Iran and Syria will immediately engage and Israel will not be able to fight them all…”
My purpose in that article was to outline the dangers of US involvement in a larger war that would require conscription and escalation with Russia. Despite the “experts” insisting that the odds are overblown, it now appears that the next stage of escalation is about to begin.
Iran, Lebanon and Israel have been exchanging limited fire for months now. This is nothing new. What is new is the change in tone after a Hezbollah rocket strike on a children’s soccer game in the remote Druze village of Majdal Shams that killed 12.
On the other side, Israel’s brazen assassination of the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil this week is a clear catalyst for war. Haniyeh has been engaged in a diplomatic mission to start peace negotiations in Gaza. His assassination sends a clear message that Israel has no intention of entering into talks with Hamas.
IDF officials also announced that they had killed top Hezbollah military commander Fuad Shukr in a precision missile strike Tuesday in Beirut. There’s no escaping it now.
Iran’s supreme religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered retaliation against Israel and issued an order for Iran to strike the Israelis directly. Iran will likely use extended missile barrages, but also stage troops in Syria and Lebanon. The Houthis in Yemen will then increase their attacks on ships traversing the Red Sea. It’s hard to say how much Russia will involve itself at first, but I have no doubt more advanced Russian missiles and other weapons will make an appearance on the battlefield.
The prospect of world war is immense. Israel will not be able to fight in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran all at the same time. Energy exports in the region will definitely face a slowdown, if not a complete breakdown. At that point the war won’t just be about Israel, it will be about a global energy crisis. I don’t see any scenario in which the US government doesn’t get involved.
The high risk of terrorism this entails should not be overlooked. We’ve had an undefended border and record illegal crossings for a few years now under Biden. There’s not telling how many foreign agents are in the country and I believe this was by design. I think the establishment maintained open border policies because they wanted such people here. The more terror these agents cause the more the public will be tempted to increase government powers to deal with the attacks.
Beyond that, the political left in the west has tied itself to the Palestinian wagon as if it’s their business. In reality, leftists view the war in Gaza as just another vehicle for their outrage. They use minorities, they use gays and now they’re using Muslims. It’s the classic Marxist strategy of hijacking the social causes of other groups and co-opting their momentum.
Gaza is just another excuse for progressive spastics to riot and start burning more of the west down (their true goal). Anyone that opposes them will automatically be accused of being a “Zionist sympathizer” even if Israel is not their concern. So, there will surely be Muslim terror attacks, but also civil conflicts triggered by leftists exploiting the situation to their advantage.
The timing of these events in tandem with the election is definitely not coincidental. Whoever ends up in office will essentially be “stuck” with the war, inheriting a disaster from day one. Once US forces are committed to an allied effort, there’s no chance any president (including Trump) will pull those forces out. If things get bad enough, there might not even be an election in November.
For those that think we can “win” on multiple fronts, the truth might shock you. Eric Edelman, who serves as Vice Chair of the US National Defense Strategy Commission, has given warning about the impending conflict, stating:
“There is potential for near-term war and a potential that we might lose such a conflict…We need our allies to produce more. Our defense industrial base is in very bad shape. The European defense industrial base is in even worse shape. We need our industrial base, their base, and the industrial base of our Pacific allies. Australia, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan–they all need to be stepping up because to match what Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are doing is beyond our ability to do it ourselves.”
I have written about the logistical shortcomings of the west in a WWIII scenario for some time now. At the top of the list will be manpower, just as we have seen in Ukraine. This is why we have been hearing military and political officials hint about a new draft over the past two years. They know what’s coming.
A draft to fight for globalist causes is unacceptable. I’m not going to delve into debate over whether it’s right or wrong for western countries to throw their weight behind Israel. Frankly, I don’t care about that argument. I don’t have anything invested in either side of the conflict. I care about Americans. And, I know that making the US military the go-to solution to the Middle East problem is going to end with a lot of dead Americans. I also know that the expanding crisis would make certain special interest (globalists) very happy. As I noted last year:
“The establishment seems particularly obsessed with convincing US conservatives and patriots to participate in the chaos; there are a number of Neo-cons and even a few supposed liberty media personalities calling for Americans to answer the call of blood in Israel. Some have described the coming conflagration as “the war to end all wars.”
I believe that the real war is yet to truly start, and that is the war to erase the globalists from existence. They want us to fight overseas in endless quagmires in the hopes we will die out. And when we do, there will be no one left to oppose them…”
The trap has just been set. We’ll have to wait and observe the scale of the response from Lebanon and Iran, but I believe the worst case scenario is at hand. There are multiple powderkeg events in progress around the world right now, but the Middle East situation looks to be the most disastrous by far in terms of how it will affect the US.
end
Taliban Gets $239 Million In US Aid After State Dept. Fails To Vet Recipients
SUNDAY, AUG 04, 2024 – 07:50 PM
Less than a year after Judicial Watch reported that the Taliban has established fake nonprofits to steal millions of dollars in U.S. aid to Afghanistan, a new investigation reveals that the terrorist group has also received hundreds of millions in development assistance from Uncle Sam because the State Department fails to properly vet award recipients. At least $239 million have likely filled the coffers of the extremists running the Islamic republic since the 2021 U.S. military withdrawal, according to a report published this month by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR). The money was disbursed by State Department divisions known as Democracy, Human Rights, and Labor (DRL) and International Narcotics and Law Enforcement Affairs (INL) to implement development projects intended to help achieve American foreign policy and national security goals in Afghanistan.
Investigators found that the State Department failed to comply with its own counterterrorism partner vetting requirements in Afghanistan before awarding at least 29 grants to various local entities. The agency has a system to identify whether prospective awardees have a record of ethical business practices and is supposed to conduct a risk assessment to determine if programming funds may benefit terrorists or terrorist-affiliates before distributing American taxpayer dollars. In the more than two dozen cases examined, the agency did not bother and failed to keep proper records.
“Because DRL and INL could not demonstrate their compliance with State’s partner vetting requirements, there is an increased risk that terrorist and terrorist affiliated individuals and entities may have illegally benefited from State spending in Afghanistan,” the SIGAR report says.
“As State continues to spend U.S. taxpayer funds on programs intended to benefit the Afghan people, it is critical that State knows who is actually benefiting from this assistance in order to prevent the aid from being diverted to the Taliban or other sanctioned parties, and to enable policymakers and other oversight authorities to better scrutinize the risks posed by State’s spending.”
The watchdog found issues with 29 awards distributed by DRL and INL. For instance, DRL failed to properly screen the recipients of seven awards totaling about $12 million, investigators found. INL did not provide any supporting documentation for 19 of its 22 awards totaling about $295 million so there is no way to determine if they complied with the vetting requirements. The State Department acknowledged that not all its bureaus have complied with document retention requirements, which makes it conveniently impossible to fully assess the magnitude of its transgressions. The explanation offered for INL not retaining records is “employee turnover and the dissolution of the Afghanistan-Pakistan office,” according to the report. SIGAR points out that, given the Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021, it is critical that U.S. government activities adhere to the laws, regulations, and policies intended to prevent certain transactions with terrorists.
Besides establishing fraudulent non-governmental organizations (NGO) to loot big chunks of the $3 billion in humanitarian aid that the U.S. has given Afghanistan since the Biden administration’s abrupt military withdraw, the Taliban has raked in millions more by charging taxes, permit fees and import duties. That money has flowed through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), a famously corrupt State Department arm that got $63.1 billion for foreign assistance and diplomatic engagement this year, and the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), the government’s international broadcasting services that aims to inform, engage, and connect people around the world in support of freedom and democracy.
The United Nations has also received $1.6 billion in U.S. funding for Afghanistan and a large percentage of that money most likely went to the Taliban as well, according to a federal audit, because the U.S. government does not require the leftist world body to report on taxes, fees or duties incurred on American funds for activities in Afghanistan.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
NEWT GINGRICH
SWAMP NEWS
New York State Supreme Court Blocks NYC Mayor Adams’ Attempt To Pause Migrant Arrivals
BY TYLER DURDEN
SATURDAY, AUG 03, 2024 – 02:00 PM
Authored by Michael Washburn via The Epoch Times,
The New York State Supreme Court has denied New York City Mayor Eric Adams’s request for a preliminary injunction against busing illegal immigrants from Texas to the city.
Adams, who faces challenges from New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and others in his reelection bid next year, filed a lawsuit against 17 charter bus companies in January.
His goal was to stop the companies from busing migrants, many of them undocumented, from communities in Texas to New York. The mayor cited Social Services Law 149, which stipulates that any person “who knowingly brings, or causes to be brought, a needy person from out of state into this state for the purpose of making him a public charge” has an obligation “to convey such person out of state or support him at his own expense.”
But in her nine-page July 29 ruling, Judge Mary V. Rosado found that the lawsuit was “unconstitutional.”
The judge found that the matter was similar to a 1941 Supreme Court case, Edwards v. California, in which the Supreme Court found that an “essentially identical” law in California was unconstitutional for violating the Interstate Commerce Clause.
She cited the ruling, saying, “The Court finds that it cannot grant the … request for injunctive relief as the merits of [the] claim are dubious at best given myriad constitutional concerns.”
The state supreme court’s ruling is a setback for the Adams administration, whose legal moves had succeeded in getting one bus company, Roadrunner Charters Inc., to enter into an agreement to pause busing migrants to the city until the court reached a decision. Now, Roadrunner Charters and other bus services are free to continue transporting migrants to New York.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott quickly responded to the ruling on X, formerly Twitter, writing, “Another WIN! … Until the Biden-Harris Administration secures the border, Texas will continue to send migrants to sanctuary cities.”
Adams’s position was that dropping thousands of people in New York strained social services and the amount of available shelter space past the limit, costing more than $700 million. In a similar spirit to the busing lawsuit, the mayor has sought to enforce a 60-day limit on shelter space for asylum seekers in the city.
In the past two years alone, a reported 205,000 migrants have arrived in the city, straining existing social services and prompting the Adams administration to set up more than 200 emergency shelter sites.
The New York Civil Liberties Union (NYCLU), which filed an amicus brief in the case, argued that people have a right to come to New York regardless of their immigration status or whether they are self-sufficient and that the injunction Mayor Adams sought was unconstitutional.
“The court has rightly rejected the city’s cruel attempt to limit newly arrived immigrants from traveling to and making a home here in New York City. Everyone, whether or not they are a citizen and no matter their resources, has the right to travel and reside anywhere within the United States—including Texas and New York,” Beth Haroules, a senior staff attorney at the NYCLU, said in a statement.
“New Yorkers deserve better than xenophobia and discrimination masquerading as policy,” she continued, adding that the NYCLU looks forward to the court’s full dismissal of the mayor’s case.
Challenge
The mayor’s stance on migration has put him at odds with not only the NYCLU but also other figures in city government, including Lander.
In recent months, the mayor’s rival in the coming primary election has made efforts to publicize what the comptroller believes are unduly harsh policies toward migrants.
On May 9, Lander released the findings of an investigation into the mayor’s 60-day shelter limit for families seeking asylum. The comptroller’s office criticized the “haphazard” enforcement of the limit.
The investigation found that, as of April 28, the Adams administration had issued 60-day notices to a total of 10,229 families with children. Altogether, it affected 19,497 adults and 18,149 children.
The investigation found that the city did not provide clear and consistent guidelines and written notices to the people affected. In theory, families with newborns and pregnant women in their final trimester before giving birth were exempt from the limit, but the comptroller’s office charged that staff and contractors never received written instructions to this effect.
Moreover, the investigation said that the city “specifically discriminated” against families with elementary-school-age children in making shelter placements. It added that the city subjected 37,000 people to repetitive screenings for alternatives to shelters, the investigation found.
But Adams, whose administration has struggled to find accommodations for the massive influx, has said the city is faced with a serious crisis.
During a town hall-style meeting in Manhattan in September 2023, the mayor described a crisis that surpassed anything he had seen in his career in public service.
“Let me tell you something, New Yorkers, never in my life have I had a problem that I did not see an ending to—I don’t see an ending to this,” the mayor said.
“This issue will destroy New York City,” he added.
Neither the mayor’s office nor the NYCLU responded by publication time to a request for comment.
ene
Progressive Dems In Michigan Tell Undercover Journo They Were ‘Ballot Harvested’ Out Of Office By Muslim Voter Fraud Network
MONDAY, AUG 05, 2024 – 12:35 PM
While we’ve all been told there’s no such thing as election fraud, former progressive Democrat officials in Hamtramck Michigan say they were cheated out of office by the all-Muslim City Council, claiming in undercover footage from Project Veritas that secret “midnight meetings” were held where blank absentee ballots are auctioned to the highest bidder – who is then elected to office.
Following a five month investigation in Hamtramck after the newly-elected Muslim leadership banned the LGBTQ pride flag on city property, Project Vertias spoke with dozens of locals, including Democrat officials and liberal activists, who described how Muslim politicians are using illegal ballot harvesting operations to secure permanent power. Of note, ballot harvesting is illegal under Michigan law.
More via Veritas:
Prominent media figures and government officials insist that election fraud is a myth. They actively work to use propaganda and lawfare to shut down any dissenting voices with evidence to the contrary. But after a decade of successful election fraud investigations leading to arrests and voting law changes, Project Veritas is determined to uncover the truth of these allegations in Democrat-ruled Hamtramck, and once again document systemic voter fraud.
Hamtramck’s Democrat officials admitted to Project Veritas that ethnic minorities have been using absentee ballot fraud to win city elections for over twenty years. But it was the election of Conservative Yemeni Muslims to the mayorship and council in 2021 which put an end to 100 years of continuous Polish political power. Locals expressed to our journalists that life under Muslim leadership isn’t the Democrat unity that many had hoped. The growing influx of Arab immigrants means that burqas, animal sacrifice, and the Muslim call to prayer blasting through city loudspeakers five times a day is now common.
Progressives who once eagerly welcomed Middle Eastern immigrants now express a feeling of betrayal and fear that their progressive LGBTQ sanctuary may be lost forever as Muslim politicians appear to perfect the use of voter fraud.
Hamtramck’s first woman mayor told our journalist she is “absolutely positive” she was ballot harvested out of office. Karen Majewski lost her election bid in 2021 after serving the city of Hamtramck for 18 years, first as a city council president, and then 16 years as mayor. A true Hamtramck insider, Majewski shepherded her city through major ethnic, racial, and religious shifts only to see the town’s progressive open door policy result in her ouster.
“This is another thing that you can’t say out loud. The absentee ballots are being filled out in people’s dining rooms by the candidates.” – Karen Majewski, Former Hamtramck Mayor (2006-2021)
Hamtramck Democrats apparently fear allegations of racism and discrimination if they bring attention to election fraud coordinated by Bangladeshi and Yemeni ethnic minorities.
“So, who’s going to say ‘brown-skinned people are… doing election fraud?’” – Karen Majewski, Former Hamtramck Mayor (2006-2021)
Multiple Hamtramck residents in the know say that voter fraud is primarily committed within closed ethnic communities within the city, where immigrants who are unfamiliar with the voting process are intimidated and bullied to turn over their ballots by harvesters working for the candidates.
August Gitschlag, a Michigan certified election official with nearly a decade of experience as Hamtramck’s city clerk, explained to a Project Veritas journalist how voter fraud occurs through intimidation and threats.
“They go around the neighborhood with the AB (absentee ballot) applications, and they have people sign the application. They bully them and they give them their ballots. [They] say, ‘if you don’t vote for me your cousin has nowhere to live next year when he comes in.’ It’s ethnic communities… whoever gets here can run the show.” – August Gitschlag, Michigan Elections Clerk
Despite the legacy media’s claims that widespread voter fraud doesn’t exist, Gitschlag, a Michigan Democrat has seen it up close, even confronting the corruption within his own party. “I’ve busted other Democrats… I got three people busted back in 2013,” he said.
Like the former mayor, Democrat city council hopeful Lynn Blasey, also claims to have experienced the seedy side of Hamtramck elections up close. Blasey, who identifies as asexual queer ran as the only non-Muslim candidate for Hamtramck city council in 2021 and 2023. Blasey told our Project Veritas journalist that her Muslim political opponents, current Councilmen Mohammed Hassan and Abu Musa, won because of coordinated ballot harvesting campaigns.
“They hire black people to go to black houses. They hire Bangladeshi people to go to Bangladeshi houses… they pay them for their ballots.” Lynn Blasey, Hamtramck City Council Candidate (2021, 2023)
Blasey spoke to our journalist about a secret late-night meeting where the harvested ballots are then auctioned off to the highest bidder.
“The people who have participated in that late night auction before and have been in the room when it’s happening have told me about it. They get together late at night. They jokingly call it ‘the midnight meeting.’” – Lynn Blasey, Hamtramck City Council Candidate (2021, 2023)
Project Veritas arranged a meeting with Councilman Abu Musa to play him the audio recordings detailing these allegations of voter fraud and secret ballot auctions. When confronted with the claims, Musa did not deny the existence of the “midnight meeting,” but in fact claimed fellow councilman Hassan had admitted to an illegal purchase of 300 ballots in 2023.
Journalist: “Is it true that he [Hassan] paid for 300 ballots?”
Hamtramck Councilman Abu Musa: He, [Councilman Mohammed Hassan] said so. I don’t have any proof. He [Hassan] told, ‘Yeah, I did those things.’ If somebody properly, or unproperly handled the ballot, he’s the one.”
To see how these alleged ballot harvesters would react to an offer of unmarked absentee ballots, a Project Veritas journalist contacted Councilmen Hassan and Musa with an opportunity to acquire what they believed to be ballots gathered for their benefit. They accepted the fraudulent ballots and Hassan explained how they could get those fraudulent ballots counted: by dropping them into a ballot drop box.
Hamtramck Councilman Mohammed Hassan: “This is a trap. We have to see the name, is it Muslim, or not? If it is not signed… give me the address. I’ll go there. If everything’s good, we can drop [the ballots] to the City Hall. City Hall [sic] parking lot has that [ballot] box. We can drop it there.”
Hamtramck Councilman, Mayor Pro Tem Abu Musa: “You touched my heart, brother. Thank you very much. Listen, I’ll come up. I’ll meet you. How about this evening?”
Rather than rejecting the illegal offer, both councilmen agreed to meet our journalist to retrieve the imaginary illegal ballots.
August Gitschlag told our journalist that Michigan and Attorney General Dana Nessel is pursuing an investigation of voter fraud among the Muslim city council. “We know who’s doing it and the attorney general is on to them,” he said.
Nessel, a Democrat and Trump critic, became controversial in 2023 when she charged 16 Michigan GOP electors with felony fraud charges and other crimes for signing certificates based on their belief that Donald Trump won the state in 2020. A key issue in that felony case is whether there was any reasonable belief that ongoing, systemic, voter fraud is ongoing in Michigan.
Progressives face real problems as the issues of election integrity and cultural diversity appear to be colliding for Democrats in Hamtramck.
How will the city fare now that Muslims are securing power through apparent ballot harvesting?
Stay tuned as Project Veritas intends to present our findings to Michigan’s Chief Law Enforcement Officer: Attorney General Dana Nessel.
The Michigan Democratic primary is on August 6th and Councilman Mohammed Hassan hopes to advance from city council to become commissioner of Wayne County’s 3rd district. Musa, who has also faced questions over his residency status in Hamtramck, will not face reelection until 2025.
end
KING REPORT
The burgeoning recession angst that has vexed equities for the past few weeks exploded into something more severe with the release of the disappointing July Employment Report on Friday.
The seasonal adjustment for July 2023 is +230k, for July 2024, it is +278k. (+48k fictional jobs) https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm
The Birth/Death Model shows +246k jobs. It generated 295k jobs for July 2023. (Offsets the SA jobs) https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbd.htm
Numerous economists and pundits highlighted that fact the when the US Unemployment Rate rose to 4.3%, it triggered a ‘Sahm Rule’ recession signal. A few economists warned that Hurricane Beryl provoked a 1-month 0.2 percentage points jump in unemployment that will be rescinded in August.
Claudia Sahm: ‘Very concerned’ about recession in 3, 6 months
The Sahm rule “says that if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point from the previous that signals the start of a recession.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/claudia-sahm-very-concerned-recession-163414856.html
July Employment Report Highlights
- 114k NFP; 175 exp.; June revised to 179k from 206k; May revised to 216k from 218k
- Household Survey ‘Employed’ 67k; ‘Unemployed +367K; Unemployment to 4.3% from 4.1%
- Temp layoffs +249k, mostly due to Hurricane Beryl
- Part-time for economic reasons +346k; Part time for noneconomic reasons -305k
- Not in Labor Force -214k; Labor Force +42k
- Wages 0.2% m/m & 3.6% y/y; 0.3% m/m & 3.6%y/y exp.; Mfg. +1k
- Healthcare & Social Services +64k, Construction +25k, Leisure & Hospitality +23k; Gov’t +17k
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
After the ugly July Employment Report, the usual suspects quickly proclaimed that a 50bps rate cut in September is in play. But stocks tumbled! Woe is me!
Harris blames Trump for latest dreadful jobs report nearly a full term after he left office
July marked the highest level for the jobless rate since October 2021
“Donald Trump failed Americans as president, costing our economy millions of jobs, and bringing us to the brink of recession,” Harris for President spokesperson James Singer said in a statement…
“Kamala Harris has proudly and repeatedly celebrated her role as Joe Biden’s co-pilot on ‘Bidenomics,’” Karoline Leavitt, Trump Campaign National Press Secretary, said in a statement. “She cast tie-breaking votes in the Senate for spending that put inflation on steroids, and despite the evidence that America’s working families are hurting she tells us these failed plans are working.”
She added: “The basic necessities of food, gas and housing are less affordable, unemployment is rising, and Kamala doesn’t seem to care.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-blames-trump-latest-dreadful-jobs-report-nearly-full-term-after-he-left-office
Kamala is exceptionally stupid, even for a politician, or she thinks Americans are exceptionally stupid.
ESUs opened lower on Thursday night and proceeded to decline until they hit a low of 5331.75 at 11:19 ET. The desperate manipulation for the 11L30 ET European close continued into a Noon Balloon. ESUs rallied to 5381.75 at 12:40 ET. After a retreat to 5342.00 14:18 ET, ESUs rallied to 5378.00 at 15:59 ET.
ESUs then declined to 5357.0 at 16:55 ET. Traders manipulated stuff into the NYSE close and they liquidated ESUs after the NYSE close.
The Sahn Recession is Here
An X account of a quantitative analyst at a health-care firm showed his work using AI. He took two simple steps to adjust the official Consumer Price Index (CPI). First, he replaced “Owner Equivalent Rent”—the BLS’s way of calculating home prices—with median house prices themselves. Second, he added in interest rates, which are usually excluded.
The results: just making these two adjustments, we come up with a 127 percent inflation over four years. I asked the scientists about other adjustments, adding in health insurance and homeowner’s insurance, plus cars without hedonic adjustments, plus shrinkflation and fees. Airline prices, for example, are posted as flat but everyone knows this is not true once you consider all the added baggage and seating fees. The analyst wrote me privately that he would not be surprised if making further adjustments would drive the inflation rate to 150 to 200 percent over four years.
https://www.theepochtimes.com/opinion/the-sahm-recession-is-here-5698904
Positive aspects of previous session
USUs jumped 2 17/32; good for bond owners, bad because it suggests recession is nigh.
Oil and gasoline declined sharply (See USUs above)
Negative aspects of previous session
Stocks got eviscerated on recession fright.
Nasdaq dropped 2.43%; the NY Fang+ Index sank 2.87%
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
When will the looming recession take hold?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5344.16
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5383.89; 5302.03
NYT: Killing of Hamas Leader Creates New Tension Between Biden and Netanyahu (WHY?)
President Biden has expressed concern that the circumstances of the assassination have thrown cease-fire talks into doubt, but Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel rejects that idea… (BS; It’s Team Obama appeasing Iran; Biden is lucky if he knows what day it is!)
The Ottoman American Empire – The Obama-Biden blueprint after Gaza
There is nothing secret about the administration’s plan for how it will administer the Levant, which it first unveiled in October 2022… According to the U.S. blueprint, the United States and Iran will jointly administer a set of Levantine provinces, including Israel; a future Palestinian state; and Lebanon. Jordan, which is also part of the local geography, is configured as an American protectorate to balance out Syria, which was recognized by Barack Obama, publicly in 2015 and privately in his letters to Ali Khamenei, as an Iranian regional “equity” and will therefore apparently be administered solely by Iran…
The Obama team sees Jewish sovereignty as a destabilizing factor in the regional arrangement with Iran, which therefore must be constrained, if not out outright abolished. To fit in Obama’s “regional integration” vision, Israel has to be reduced to a province, with no sovereign control over its defense policy with regard to the Iranians and their holdings in the U.S.-managed regional architecture, in which you’ll have the subdivision, or kaza, of Gaza and the kaza of the West Bank united within a new mutasarrifate of Palestine. Jerusalem will be a special jurisdiction shared with Israel under international supervision… https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/ottoman-american-empire
Berkshire Cuts Apple Stake by Almost Half in Selling Spree (789m to 400m) – BBG 8/3/24
Cash pile climbs to a record $276.9 billion in second quarter
Overall company stock sales reach $75,.5 billion on a net basis
Chevron, which was once Standard Oil of California, is moving its headquarters to Houston.
NBER: The Employment Effects of a Guaranteed Income: Experimental Evidence from Two U.S. States – The program resulted in a 2.0 percentage point decrease in labor market participation for participants and a 1.3-1.4 hour per week reduction in labor hours, with participants’ partners reducing their hours worked by a comparable amount… (Only leftists don’t know or care about this effect.)
https://www.nber.org/papers/w32719
Nvidia Reportedly Delays (at least 3 months) Next-Generation Blackwell AI Chip; Big Implications for Sector https://www.investors.com/news/technology/nvidia-delays-blackwell-ai-chip/
NYT: With Smugglers and Front Companies, China Is Skirting American A.I. Bans – The U.S. is trying to stop China from getting Nvidia microchips to advance its military. The private sector is fighting back…In one case, Chinese executives bypassed U.S. restrictions when they created a new company that is now one of China’s largest makers of A.I. servers and a partner of Nvidia, Intel and Microsoft… https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/04/technology/china-ai-microchips.html?unlocked_article_code=1.AU4.MBnu.t1f8V6o8iArw&referringSource=articleShare&sgrp=c-cb
Sanctions and Reality: Western Tech’s Enduring Role in Russian Arms
How Western Technology Continues to Power Russian Missile Navigation Systems
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/sanctions-and-reality-western-techs
@spomboy: As we look ahead to next week, the market is facing three blustery headwinds. (1) The unwelcome realization the Fed is not going to deliver an immaculate pivot but is in fact too late to the party…. as always. (2) the rising prospect of the continuation of big government, anti-private sector fiscal policies. And, perhaps most importantly l, (3) the unwind of the three decade-long yen carry trade. Buckle up, folks! The road is about to get very bumpy. (The Nikkei sank 8.16% Thursday thru Friday!)
Today – We regularly note that ugly Thursday-Friday sequences often create ugly Mondays. A decline today would create a terrific set up for a Turnaround Tuesday. After the carnage on Thursday and Friday, traders are desperate for a rally. Fed cut hopes and AI mania seduced beaucoup traders and investors to be long equities. They are now badly bruised; and bulls need to halt downside momentum. The usual suspects are likely to play for a dead-cat bounce, emboldened by the propensity for stocks to rally on Monday – and by the ingrained pattern of someone rescuing stocks when a major technical threshold is threatened or breached.
Fin media types and some pundits, thinking it would make them sound wise, announced that Nasdaq has entered ‘correction territory.’ For some inane reason, Street pundits decades ago proffered the notion that a 10+% decline means a correction is under. Nevertheless, The Street over-owns Mag 7, AI, and related trading sardines that dominate Nasdaq. ‘They’ want and desperately need to force these stocks higher.
Various amateur pundits are trying to blame the equity carnage on Kamala. This is BS. Some cite the ‘betting markets;’ but the betting market cited is a notorious thin ‘exchange’ that in the past has been the province of political activists that use a few thousand dollars to sell a narrative.
The last time we checked Ladbroke, it had Trump 60%, Harris 40%. DJT peaked at +33% vs. Biden. If the big money expected Kamala to win, it is a high probability that US bonds would be in the toilet.
David Axelrod: Harris Momentum Due to ‘Irrational Exuberance’
David Axelrod, chief campaign strategist for former President Barack Obama, says the presidential race between Harris and former President Donald Trump remains “Trump’s race to lose.” “There’s a lot of irrational exuberance on the Democratic side of the aisle right now because there was despair for some period of time about what November was going to look like,” Axelrod said onCNN…https://t.co/HxzeRPuKtZ
Reports have Israel telling Iran that if Iran attacks Israel, Irani oil fields will be destroyed.
NQUs hit -388.25 (18168.00) on NVDA, the Middles East, and the US economy; ESUs hit -77.75 (5298.25) at 20:19 ET ET. Nikkei 225 futures hit -5%! Look out!
Expected economic data: July S&P Global Services PMI 56, July ISM Services 51; Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 8:30 ET on CNBC (It will be a shock if he is not over-the-top dovish!)
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5450; 100-day MA: 5307; 150-day MA: 5182; 200-day MA: 5008
DJIA 50-day MA: 39,461; 100-day MA: 39,173; 150-day MA: 38,879; 200-day MA: 37,943
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5346.56 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5052.31 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5700.68 triggers a buy signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5575.50 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5433.83 triggers a buy signal
@KateHydeNY: No one is talking about how Biden climbed onto the jet after the Americans already got off. Did he think he was getting on Air Force One?https://t.co/37GkBCT21s
The WH tried to excuse Biden’s latest moment by stating Joe went on the aircraft to greet people.
@atensnut: This dude (Biden) is not there. Greeting the prisoners.https://x.com/atensnut/status/1819222712486625344
@RNCResearch: KAMALA — UNSCRIPTED FOR THE FIRST TIME: “This is just an extraordinary testament to the importance of having a president who understands the power of diplomacy and understands the strength that rests in understanding the significance of diplomacy.”
@CollinRugg: Trump trolls VP Kamala Harris for her recent word salad while talking to reporters. “They put a camera in her face. She can’t even talk. We just went through four years. Let’s not go through another four years.” Trump was referring to one of Harris’ rare unscripted camera appearances where she tried talking about diplomacy…
@TrumpWarRoom: Kamala pulls a Biden and reads the directions right off her pre-written script: “And when we fight — everyone will say in unison — we win!”
During a Zoom rollcall vote of Dem delegates on Friday afternoon, Kamala Harris received the requisite number of votes to be the Dems’ presidential candidate. From Friday night through the weekend a lot of bad stuff on Kamala and her reported VP, Josh Shapiro, appeared.
Kamala Harris’s husband Doug Emhoff cheated on his first wife with daughter Ella’s nanny Najen Naylor – and got her PREGNANT – A close friend with direct knowledge of the affair and pregnancy told DailyMail.com that Naylor did not keep the child – though her social media shows a video of a mysterious baby girl named Brook in 2009, the year the baby would have been born…
Kamala Harris’ husband Doug Emhoff admits to cheating on first wife after bombshell report he impregnated nanny – The news is reportedly causing serious concern in Harris’ camp…
@AnnCoulter: “I know a predator when I see one.” — Kamala Harris Apparently not
@nicksortor: Here’s Kamala Harris attempting to explain “cloud storage.” Yes, this is real. No wonder they won’t let her speak off script. (“and it’s then therefore up here in this cloud that exists above us… it’s no longer in a physical place.” )https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1819808519891374285
(This level of stupidity is prized by the Deep State and Administrative State!)
Babylon Bee: Kamala Harris Spends Flight Looking for Cloud Where Her Data IsStored
@EndWokeness: This clip of Kamala will make you want to claw your ears off.https://t.co/DTNJ7QRZPK
Racist remarks from black activists tied to Kamala Harris could spell trouble for Dem ticket: ‘F–k white women’ – Cora Masters Barry, an appointee of Democrat D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser and longtime civil rights activist, and Melanie Campbell, who leads the National Coalition on Black Civic Participation, have visited the White House more than 50 times combined during the Biden administration, including nearly a dozen visits with Harris or her staff, a Fox News Digital review found… During Barry’s remarks at the private ceremony, she praised Farrakhan, who has espoused antisemitic rhetoric for decades, including calling Jews “wicked” and comparing them to termites. Barry referred to Farrakhan as a “friend” and “member of the family” while also telling him “I love you more than words will ever say.” “Minister Farrakhan, we love you more than you love us. You just don’t know it,” she added. Farrakhan in turn praised Barry, saying, “Praise God for this woman. She is a treasure. A real treasure.”…https://t.co/xnkoWJ5L9t
@Chadwick_Moore: Cora Masters Barry visited the Harris-Biden White House over 50 times, had at least 12 meetings with Kamala. “There’s a lot of white guilt money out there…I’m gonna use it to radicalize my people so they come for your job… F-ck white women. But get me that white guilt money.”https://x.com/GetOutspokenUSA/status/1819462513114882521
DNC official gives devastating assessment of ‘weirdly unpopular’ Kamala Harris in bombshell secret recording and reveals fundraising tactic that will leave donors furious
@theblaze: Unearthed clip of Kamala Harris scolds people for saying “Merry Christmas” because illegals might not get to celebrate: “HOW DARE WE SPEAK MERRY CHRISTMAS?”
Wild video shows black men in barbershop openly questioning whether Kamala Harris is blackhttps://trib.al/IRN0Yqp
Kamala Harris’s husband’s law firm represented the PLO https://t.co/HOu8cmSc7x
@JackPosobiec: PA Governor Josh Shapiro signed off on the ‘controlled burn’ in East Palestine https://t.co/IXpEAx3L0M
Hi @JoshShapiroPA! Remember me? Sure would be a shame if someone dug up photos of you sponsoring Drag Queen Bingo Night in Philadelphia https://t.co/m4lpLuTObQ
Penn Supreme Court to review suicide ruling in case of Philly woman stabbed 20 times in 2011—then-AG Josh Shapiro backed claim wounds were self-inflicted
On January 26, 2011, Greenberg’s fiancé Sam Goldberg called 911 to report that Ellen was lying on the floor with “blood everywhere” at approximately 6:31 pm… at 6:14 pm Goldberg called his cousin, Kamian Schwartzman in a call that lasted for approximately five minutes. During the next seven minutes, Sam missed multiple calls from his uncle, James Schwartzman but at 6:26 pm, James Schwartzman tried calling again, and Sam finally answered the phone.
Kamian and James Schwartzman, both lawyers, were at the apartment building sometime that evening perhaps as early as 6:34 pm before first responders arrived….
James Schwartzman runs in the same political and social circles as Josh Shapiro and comes from the same neighborhood. Schwartzman is very politically connected… https://t.co/CNKEfCsxi3
How a sexual harassment scandal involving a Josh Shapiro aide could affect the Pa. governor’s VP chances – Shapiro’s relationship with Mike Vereb, a top aide who resigned last year amid a sexual harassment investigation, is drawing scrutiny as Kamala Harris vets the governor as a potential running mate… https://www.inquirer.com/politics/election/josh-shapiro-mike-vereb-sexual-harassment-vp-20240729.html
@JackPosobiec: Harrisburg contact tells me that the reason the Josh Shapiro aide sexual harassment payout was so large was that Shapiro had been briefed and knew for months but did nothing.
Shapiro seeks to downplay his time as IDF volunteer after college op-ed resurfaces
‘I was 20,’ says Pennsylvania governor and potential VP nominee about op-ed titled ‘Peace Not Possible,’ in which he described himself ‘as a Jew and past volunteer in the Israeli army’
Pennsylvania Governor and potential Democratic vice-presidential nominee Josh Shapiro on Friday sought to distance himself from a recently uncovered op-ed he wrote in college, in which he identified as a former volunteer in the IDF and argued that the Palestinians are too “battle-minded” to pursue peace with Israel…
Shapiro has faced an aggressive campaign from far-left and anti-Israel activists, who have branded him “Genocide Josh” and warned Harris against picking him…
(Dem Sen. From PA) Fetterman has concerns about Shapiro for VP, aides tell Harris’ team
Fetterman’s advisers suggested to Harris’ team that the senator believes that Shapiro is excessively focused on his own personal ambitions…
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/03/fetterman-shapiro-harris-vp-00172557?s=02
@JackPosobiec: Fetterman is right. If Kamala chooses Josh Shapiro, he will knife her in the back much faster than she knifed Biden. The leaking on her would be nonstop. He’d be president by year 3 of their admin and she’d be the one resigning via tweet.
@AriFleischer: I’ve been around the MSM for a long time, and I’ve never seen them so passive. If you thought they were in the tank for Pres. Obama, it’s nothing compared now to their desire to defeat Trump and help Harris. They should be roasting Harris for hiding and refusing to do.
@TrumpDailyPosts: I have agreed with FoxNews to debate Kamala Harris on Wednesday, September 4th. The Debate was previously scheduled against Sleepy Joe Biden on ABC, but has been terminated in that Biden will no longer be a participant, and I am in litigation against ABC Network and George Slopadopoulos, thereby creating a conflict of interest. The FoxNews Debate will be held in the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, at a site in an area to be determined. The Moderators of the Debate will be Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum, and the Rules will be similar to the Rules of my Debate with Sleepy Joe, who has been treated horribly by his Party – BUT WITH A FULL ARENA AUDIENCE!….
As everyone knows, the Democrats have Unconstitutionally taken a Candidate, who was acknowledged to be defeated, and unceremoniously replaced him with a new Candidate. This has never been done before, and is a Threat to Democracy, but I am totally prepared to accept the results of this “coup,” and replace Joe on the Debate stage with Crazy Kamala Harris. I spent Hundreds of Millions of Dollars, Time, and Effort fighting Joe, and when I won the Debate, they threw a new Candidate into the ring. Not fair, but it is what it is! Nevertheless, different Candidate or not, their bad Policies are the same, and this will be strongly revealed at the September 4th Debate. I look forward to meeting and debating Kamala Harris on September 4th. This date is convenient and appropriate in that it is just prior to the September 6th start of Early Voting in the 2024 Presidential Election. I look forward to seeing everyone on September 4th, in the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania!
Kamala Harris doesn’t have the mental capacity to do a REAL Debate against me, scheduled for September 4th in Pennsylvania. She’s afraid to do it because there is no way she can justify her Corrupt and Open Borders, the Environmental Destruction of our Country, the Afghanistan Embarrassment, Runaway Inflation, Terrible Economy, High Interest Rates and Taxes, and her years long fight to stop the words, “Merry Christmas.” I’ll see her on September 4th or, I won’t see her at all.She is acknowledged to be the Worst Vice President in History, which works very nicely against the Worst President, Crooked Joe Biden. The combination of these two Low IQ individuals have destroyed our Country…
@TheBabylonBee: ‘Trump Is Scared to Debate!’ Says Party Whose Last Candidate Had to Quit Politics After Debate
Team Kamala refused Trump and Fox’s invite. They want ABC to host the debate.
@kylenabecker: If you want to know why Kamala Harris *REFUSED* to debate Trump on Fox News in front of a live audience, LOOK NO FURTHER. (Kamala explaining inflation; not a parody!)
@TrumpWarRoom: Kamala — who didn’t receive a single vote for president in 2020 OR 2024 — is bragging about her “people-powered campaign” again after being installed as the Democrat nominee
‘Kamala Chameleon’? Trump’s new line of attack hits Harris on shifting background
At a rally in Atlanta on Saturday evening, Trump said Harris is a dumber version of Bernie Sanders. DJT relapsed into his juvenile and petty mode when he attacked the popular Georgia Governor, who is a Republican. This is precisely how you lose close elections in battle ground states!
Graham implores Trump and Georgia governor to ‘repair the damage’ – The South Carolina senator told Donald Trump to instead on winning the battleground state rather than settling scores.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/04/graham-trump-georgia-kemp-00172572
Amid uproar, Pentagon revokes 9/11 plea deals and removes official who offered them
The specifics of the plea deal were never released, but the New York Times previously reported that it removed the possibility of the death penalty. At least two Congressional inquiries into the plea deal have been launched… The Pentagon released a memorandum on Friday that withdrew the plea deal after releasing retired Brig. Gen. Susan K. Escallier, who oversaw the plea deal, of her oversight on the case…
@charliekirk11: Attorneys General from Virginia and Missouri, and Wyoming Secretary of State Launch Investigations into ActBlue Over Allegations of Money Laundering Scheme
The monstrous amount of donations emanating from individuals is suspected to be a scheme that launders big donors’ ginormous donations through beaucoup unsuspecting individuals.
@nicksortor: Rep. @CoryMillsFL (ex-Special Forces sniper) just ROASTED the pathetic “investigation” into the attempt on Trump’s life. He was left off Speaker Johnson’s “task force” because he REFUSES to fall in line. And now he’s launching his OWN investigation. https://t.co/3xRKc3nYLW
Homeland suspends illegal immigrant parole program over fraud concerns
The internal report found that the forms in some cases included social security numbers, addresses, and phone numbers that were being used hundreds of times. It also found that 24 of the 1,000 most used numbers belonged to a dead person, and that 100 physical addresses were used between 124 and 739 times on over 19,000 forms… (Just like US voter registrations!)
@junogsp7: Wow fascinating expose’ on the real Paul Whelan who was just traded in hostage deal with Russia. He is a former Clinton Foundation Arms dealer super sniper recruiter.Just in time from the home stretch of the Nov election cycle. Coincidence or not?
@Jewtastic: In 2011 Iran captured a fully intact downed advanced RQ-170 drone. President Obama overruled advisors who wanted to *immediately* launch a strike to destroy the technology. Obama feared Iran would respond. Iran is now a world power in drones because of Obama’s weakness…
Guess who the Iranians called in to help take apart the drone and steal the technology? That’s right, Russia. Iran now has entire factories building drones to export to Russia in order to kill Ukrainians. It all started with President Obama. Always soft on Iran for sure.
@nicksortor: Nancy Pelosi just told CBS Sunday Morning that Joe Biden should be added to Mt. Rushmore… Even liberal anchor Lesley Stahl was like “what the hell?” https://t.co/CpdcFXRQms
Once again, we have another example of a US leftist being abjectly stupid and deceitful (She removed the great Biden) and/or believing that Americans are abjectly stupid.
Trump calls US-Russia prisoner swap a ‘win for Putin,’ says detainments ‘wouldn’t have happened with us’ –The historic exchange also included former Marine Paul Whelan and Russian-American journalist Alsu Kurmasheva, along with legal permanent resident Vladimir Kara-Murza. In exchange, Russian President Vladimir Putin insisted his hit man, Vadim Krasikov, be released back to Russia…
@DC_Draino: Absolutely wild that the guy who got the “most votes in American history” can’t even run for re-election b/c his own party hates him so much. And they still tell you with a straight face the 2020 election was *not* rigged. Communism is here & Trump is our last chance to defeat it.
For decades, affluent Americans believed their wealth and status inoculated them from the leftists that they supported. Now, Elon Musk and other Silicon Valley moguls fear what a Harris Administration could do to America – and their own wealth. It’s time to eschew the virtue signaling for the cold hard truth about where leftists are taking the ex-constitutional republic known as the USA.
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON TUESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
