GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $1.90 TO $2392.10
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0,27 TO $26.85
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2387.15
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $26.75
Bitcoin morning price:$57,285 UP 638 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $54,926 DOWN 1721 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $6.75 TO $923.35
Palladium price; UP $17.60 TO $897.00
END
SHANGHAI GOLD PREMIUM 58 DOLLARS/COMEX GOLD//august to august
SHANGHAI GOLD (USD) FUTURES – QUOTES
Last Updated 07 Aug 2024 04:30:16 AM CT.
Market data is delayed by at least 10 minutes.
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3281.66 DOWN 5.89 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,390.26 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//AUG 1 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 1,880.74 DOWN 1.44 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1933.24 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) APRIL 19/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,185.70 UP 3.64 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.264.61 EUROS PER OZ//AUGUST 1 //.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
ACCESS MARKET
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: MARCH 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,157.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 03/15/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 03/19/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
132 C SG AMERICAS 15
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6
661 C JP MORGAN 62 70
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
TOTAL: 78 78
MONTH TO DATE: 5,25
JPMorgan stopped 3/5
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 5 NOTICES FOR 500 OZ or 0.01555 TONNES
total notices so far: 17,075 contracts for 1,707500 Oz (53.1104 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 102 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 510,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 680 for 3.4000 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $1.90 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.27 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/
// INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 462.502 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2299 CONTRACTS TO 147,537 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN OF $0.05 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING // //RAID. SOME OF OUR OI LIQUIDATION ACCOMPANIED OUR HUGE NET LOSS OF 1046 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING TUESDAY’S RAID. WE HAD SOME ZERO COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD A HUGE 1255 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUMONGOUS 2375 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST 1044 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE DEMAND FOR SILVER WAS JUST TOO GREAT FOR OUR BANKERS TO CONTAIN AND THUS THE STEEP RISE IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 964 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.05) BUT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1044 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1255 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 505,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 3.950 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 3.950 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 964 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 98 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS JUNE ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 DAYS, total 9140 contracts: OR 39.425 MILLION OZ (1971 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 45.700 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 45.70 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A DOOZY FOR ISSUANCE.
RESULT: WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2299 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1255 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.005 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 505,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 3.950 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1044 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 964 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR THE MAJOR PORTION OF THE HIGH COMEX OI LOSS DESPITE THE TINY GAIN IN PRICE//// MINOR SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND SOME LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (946) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 102 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 510,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 7204 OI CONTRACTS TO 480,645 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE AND CRIMINAL 2385 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (7204 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $13.10 IN PRICE/TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER. AS WELL AS ORCHESTRATING THE RAID. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 600 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE GUYS TOOK IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF GOLD IN LONDON.
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 65.259 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $23.75 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 2628 OI CONTRACTS (8.174 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 4576 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 480,645
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 241 CONTRACTS WITH 7204 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 4576 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2628 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1888 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4576 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 7204 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2628 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 600 OZ EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON WHERE THESE BOYS NEEDED IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL GOLD ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND AS CENTRAL BANKS CONTINUED ON THE GOLD BUYING SPREE!
//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO: /AUGUST 65.259 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1888 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 35,281 CONTRACTS OF 3,528,100 OZ OR 109.73 TONNES IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7056 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 109.73 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 109.73 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.09% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 109.73 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S SIMILAR TO SILVER. QUITE POSSIBLY WILL BE A RECORD ISSUANCE
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 2299 CONTRACTS OI TO 147,635 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1255 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 1255 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1255 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2299 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1255 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 946 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 5.220 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $.05 GAIN IN PRICE
END
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.55 PTS OR 0.09% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 230.52 PTS OR 1.35% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 414.16 OR 1.19%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .29%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,1810 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1837/ Oil UP TO 74.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 77.91 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 7204 CONTRACTS TO 480,645 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $13.10 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING//RAID. WE LOST A HUGE NUMBER OF SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS PANICKED QUITE EARLY IN THE SESSION AND COVERED AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THEN THE FED ORCHESTRATED ANOTHER HUGE RAID AGAIN AS THEY TRIED TO COVER THEIR MASSIVE GOLD SHORTFALL OWING TO THE BIS. THIS EVENT CAME IN CONTACT WITH MANY CENTRAL BANKS EXERCISING THEIR CONTRACTS VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE AND TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD. SEEMS THAT THE FED WILL BE HELL-BENT TRYING TO COVER. THE FIRST RAID ATTEMPT FAILED WITH THE PRICE OF GOLD RISING ABOVE 2400. THE SECOND ATTEMPT SUCCEEDED AS WE ENDED THE SESSION AT AROUND 2387.00
OUR LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AND THIS WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY I.E. WEDNESDAY MORNING. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4576 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC 4576 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4576 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 2628 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4576 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 2628 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR CONSIDERABLE FALL IN PRICE OF $13.10/TUESDAY COMEX RAID. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1888 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY’S TRADING/RAID.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (65.259 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 65.259 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $13.10 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED T.A.S. LIQUIDATION TUESDAY/COMEX
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 0.765 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 600 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON//NEW STANDING: 65.259 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.284 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $13.10
WE HAVE REMOVED A HUGE 2385 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2628 CONTRACTS OR 262800 OZ (8.174
TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 199,,716 contracts//
fair
//speculators have left the gold arena
AUGUST 7 AUGUST GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE AUG 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 104,683.656 oz OZ Brinks: 761 kilobars HSBC 497 kilobars JPMorgan 1998 kilobars . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | nil |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 5 notice(s) 500 OZ 0.01555 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 3906 contracts 390,600 OZ 12.149 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 17,075 notices 1,707,500 oz 53.1104 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 3
i) Out off Brinks 24,466.911 oz 761 kilobars
ii) Out of HSBC 15,979.047 oz 497 kilobars
iii) Out of JPMorgan: 64,237.698 oz (1998 kilobars
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 104,683.656 oz 3256 kilobars//
actually physical gold from London is used and an identical transfer re kilobars from comex is recorded.
adjustments: two
dealer to customer Brinks 21,123.207 oz
ii) dealer to customer JPMorgan 217,124.221 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR JULY
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 3911 contracts having LOST 20 contracts.
We had 14 contracts served on Tuesday, so we LOST an additional 6 contracts or 600 oz will NOT stand for gold at the comex as they were immediately ferried over to London to take delivery of gold via the exchange for physical route.
SEPT. GAINED 82 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5334 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER LOST 867 CONTRACTS UP TO 51,435 CONTRACTS
We had 14 contracts filed for today representing 1400 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 3 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,075) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of August 3911( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,098,100 OZ OR 65.259 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (17075 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (3911 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (5) x 100 oz which equals 2,098,100 oz (65.259 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 65.259 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,653,477.242 oz 51.43 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,729,527.234 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7954,841.143 ( 247.42 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,774, 686.091 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,301,364 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 195.99 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 7/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE AUG 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 2877 OZ Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 102 CONTRACT(S) (514,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 110 contracts (0.555 million oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 680 Contracts (3.40000 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134,771million oz/303.102million or 44.44%
adjustment:1;dealer to customer HSBC 413,214.830 oz
withdrawals:
i) Delaware 2877.556 oz
total customer withdrawals: 2877.556 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.185 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 303.106 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 212 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 82 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 19 NOTICES SERVED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 101 CONTRACTS OR AN ADDITIONAL 505,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX. SEEMS GOLD IS SCARCE AS THE COMEX BUT NOT SILVER.
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 3456 CONTRACTS TO 93,889. SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 9 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 147 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 102 for 510,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 79 746 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 680 x 5,000 oz = 3.400 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 212) and the number of notices served upon today 102 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month: 680 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (212)x number of notices served upon today minus (102)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 3.950 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 3.950 million oz.
There are 70.185 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 848,06 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ
JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//XXX CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 462.502 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
I Thought Gold Was A Safe Haven! Why Did It Tank With Stocks?
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 01:25 PM
Authored by Mike Maharrey via Money Metals,
And in the blink of an eye, the expectation of a “soft” landing turned into worries about a crash landing!
It was a bloody Monday in the stock market as analysts digested the dreary jobs report released Friday and suddenly discovered the rot in the economy’s foundation.
They fretted that the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and worried its lallygagging would tip the economy into a recession.
(I have argued for months that the problem started long before the first Fed rate hike. It began when the central bank decided to keep the easy money spigot wide open for more than a decade. You can read more about that HERE.)
The carnage in the U.S. stock market was widespread.
- Dow Jones: -1033.99/ -2.6 percent
- NASDAQ: -576.08/ -3.43 percent
- S&P 500: -160.23/ -3 percent
- Russell 2000: -70.15/ -3.33 percent
The selloff wasn’t limited to the U.S. Markets around the globe bled red ink. Some $6.4 trillion was wiped off global stock markets. For instance, Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index plunged 13.2 percent as investors absorbed the recent interest rate hike.
It just goes to show how quickly market sentiment can shift.
The reasons for the global selloff went beyond worries about the U.S. economy. As a Bloomberg article put it, investors are coming to terms with the fact that they were operating under a lot of erroneous assumptions.
“One thing is clear: the pillars that had underpinned financial-market gains for years — a series of key assumptions that investors across the world were banking on — have been shaken.
They look, in hindsight, a bit naïve: the U.S. economy is unstoppable; artificial intelligence will quickly revolutionize business everywhere; Japan will never hike interest rates — or not enough to really matter.”
So, What Happened to Gold?
Gold and silver didn’t escape the carnage.
At its low, the price of gold was down 3.2 percent before rallying later in the day to recover the $2,400 an ounce level. Nevertheless, the yellow metal finished down 1.3 percent on the day.
Silver got pounded even harder, dropping as much as 7.2 percent at its intraday low. Worries about an economic slowdown and an ensuing decrease in silver demand hammered the silver price down.
You might be wondering why gold – supposedly a safe haven – dropped during the broader selloff. Shouldn’t a good haven do well amid market chaos?
In fact, the plunge in the price of gold was perfectly normal given the market conditions. Gold often sells off early in a bear market for stocks.
In 2020, gold had a 3 percent decline multiple times in the early days of the pandemic selloff. In October 2008, gold plunged by more than 7 percent in the early days of the financial crisis.
But why?
Precisely because gold serves as a hedge.
Investors often liquidate winning gold positions during a sharp downturn to cover stock losses. But gold generally falls less sharply and recovers more quickly – exactly the scenario that played out on Monday.
Here’s how an analyst explained it to Bloomberg:
“Virtually every time there is marked equities weakness, investors who hold gold as a risk hedge will liquidate part of their holdings to raise liquidity against any potential margin calls. When the dust settles, they almost invariably buy it back.”
Margin calls are a big problem for investors during a sharp stock market downturn.
When an account falls below a certain threshold, brokers demand additional deposits of money or securities to bring the account balance up to a required minimum level.
Given gold’s liquidity, investors can quickly sell to raise the cash necessary to cover margin calls.
It’s important to put Monday’s gold selloff into perspective. Even with the downturn, gold hit a record just a few weeks ago, and the yellow metal is still up well over 15 percent on the year with bullish factors firmly in place.
A recession would likely mean deeper and quicker interest rate cuts. As a non-yielding asset, the mainstream tends to view lower interest rates as positive for gold.
And of course, a return to easy money is a surrender to inflation. In other words, the inflation dragon will likely be resurrected (if you actually believe he is dead).
As far as silver, an economic downturn would temper industrial demand, and the white metal is much more volatile than gold.
But silver is fundamentally a monetary metal, and it tends to track with gold over time. In fact, silver has historically outperformed gold in a gold bull market. For example, during the pandemic, gold increased by about 40 percent, while silver increased by 141 percent.
Whether Monday’s selloff was just a tremor before the earthquake, or the beginning of the great unwind, there are plenty of reasons to be bullish on both gold and silver.
These price dips could be viewed as a buying opportunity.
end
Central Bank Gold Buying Through First Half of 2024 Sets Record
Despite central bank gold buying slowing moderately in the second quarter, it set a record through the first half of 2024.Central banks globally added a net 483 tons of gold through the first six months of the year, 5 percent above the record of 460 tons in H1 2023.In the second quarter, central bank gold demand totaled 183 tons, according to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council. That was up 6 percent year-on-year, but about 39 percent lower than the Q1 buying pace.With gold at or near record price levels in most currencies, it’s unsurprising that central bank buying slowed in the second quarter.China primarily drove the Q2 slowdown in central bank demand.
The People’s Bank of China reported no additions to its gold reserves in May or June and only officially added 2 tons in April.Prior to the pause in May, China had increased its gold holding for 18 straight months.Many analysts believed the Chinese paused officially adding gold to their reserves in an effort to push gold prices lower.When the Chinese reported no changes to their official reserves in May, it precipitated a panicked gold selloff. Despite the kneejerk reaction, it seems unlikely that the Chinese are finished adding gold to their reserves. There is also some speculation that China is adding a significant amount of gold to its reserves off the books.Even with the pause, China still added nearly 30 tons of gold to its reserves through the first half of 2024.
Turkey was the biggest buyer through the first half of the year, adding 45 tons to its gold hoard. The bulk of its buying was in Q1, with the pace slowing to 15 tons in the second quarter.The Turkish central bank has bought gold for 12 straight months after liquidating 160 tons of gold in the spring of 2023.India ranks as the second-biggest gold buyer through the first half of the year.
The Reserve Bank of India has added gold to its reserves every month this year totaling 37 tons.In 2022, the Indian central bank added 33 tons of gold to its reserves followed by a 16-ton increase last year.The Reserve Bank of India has been buying gold since 2017. Over that period, the RBI has increased its gold holding by over 260 tons.An Indian economist told the Times of India that the push to accumulate gold was based on both political and economic reasons. He said that the “reliability” of the U.S. dollar has “diminished.” He noted the “noticeable decline” in the confidence in U.S. dollar assets.Another economist told the Times,”It makes a lot of sense (to invest in gold), given the increased volatility in the FX market, elevated interest rates in the U.S., and, of course, also as the central banks in each economy would like to diversify the asset classes in which they are parking their reserves.”India recently transported 100 tons of its gold from the UK back into India.Poland was the biggest gold buyer in the second quarter, increasing its holding by 19 tons. The country currently holds about 13 percent of its reserves in gold. At a news conference in early June, National Bank of Poland Governor Adam Glapinski reiterated his plan to increase gold’s share of total reserves to 20 percent.Poland was the second-biggest gold buyer in 2023. The Polish central bank bought 130 tons of gold last year, increasing its holdings by 57 percent, to 359 tons.In 2021, Glapinski announced a plan to expand the country’s gold reserves by 100 tons. The central bank reached that goal in September of ’23 and kept buying.When he announced the plan to expand its gold reserves, Glapinski said holding gold was a matter of financial security and stability.”Gold will retain its value even when someone cuts off the power to the global financial system, destroying traditional assets based on electronic accounting records. Of course, we do not assume that this will happen. But as the saying goes – forewarned is always insured.And the central bank is required to be prepared for even the most unfavorable circumstances. That is why we see a special place for gold in our foreign exchange management process.”Other notable buyers in the second quarter included:
Uzbekistan – 7 tons
Czech Republic – 6 tons
Qatar – 4 tonsSingapore – 4 tons
Russia – 3 tons
Iraq – 3 tonJordan – 1 ton
Kyrgyz Republic – 1 ton
Notably, Singapore had been a consistent buyer this year before selling 12 tons of gold in June.Uzbekistan has also been a frequent seller this year, turning back to buying in May. It is not uncommon for banks that buy from domestic production – such as Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan – to switch between buying and selling.The Philippines has been the biggest seller through the first half of the year, decreasing its gold reserves by about 25 tons. Thailand was another notable seller, decreasing its holdings by just under 10 tons.Despite the modest colling of central bank gold demand in Q2, there is no indication that they are souring on the yellow metal. According to the most recent World Gold Council survey, 29 percent of central banks plan to add more gold to their reserves in the next 12 months. The WGC said it was the highest level since the survey began in 2018.Only 3 percent said they had plans to decrease gold reserves.Earlier this year, the World Gold Council said the continuation of gold buying supports its expectation that “2024 will be another solid year of central bank gold demand.””Last year central banks placed great emphasis on gold’s value in crisis response, diversification attributes, and store-of-value credentials. A few months into 2024 the world seems no less uncertain meaning those reasons for owning gold are as relevant as ever.”Last year, central bank gold buying fell just 45 tons short of 2022’s multi-decade record.According to the World Gold Council, central banks net gold purchases totaled 1,037 tons in 2023. It was the second straight year central banks added more than 1,000 tons to their total reserves.Central bank gold buying in 2023 built on the prior record year. Total central bank gold buying in 2022 came in at 1,136 tons. It was the highest level of net purchases on record dating back to 1950, including since the suspension of dollar convertibility into gold in 1971.China was the biggest buyer in 2023.Analysts at ANZ Bank recently said they expect central bank gold buying to remain hot for at least the next six years.According to these analysts, “Depleted trust in the U.S. fixed-income assets and the rise of non-reserve currencies are other themes that could support central bank gold buying.”
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
lio.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 184 with Craig Hemke/Andrew Maguire
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.55 PTS OR 0.09% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 230.52 PTS OR 1.35% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 414.16 OR 1.19%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP .29%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,1810 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1837/ Oil UP TO 74.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 77.91 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1810
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.11837
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.55 PTS OR 0.09 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 230.52 PTS OR 1.38%
2. Nikkei closed UP 414.16 PTS OR 1.19%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.95 EURO FALLS TO 1.0920 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.903 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147,12…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE REIGNITING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2825/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.720 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.139%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.384
3j Gold at $2399.50//Silver at: 27.09 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 33/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 85.99
3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 77 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.12/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.903 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8630 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9425 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.930 UP 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.224 UP 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.022 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.53…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.998 UP 8 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.185 UP 7 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Soar, Yields And Oil Jump After BOJ Capitulation Nukes Yen, Restarts Carry Trade
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 08:10 AM
And just like that, the great carry trade freak out – which started exactly one week ago when the BOJ hiked rates by a huge 0.15% – is over, because as we had expected, the BOJ got cold feet and capitulated on its rate hiking cycle on Wednesday morning when BOJ deputy governor Shinichi Uchida sent dovish U-turn signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable. In kneejerk reaction to his comments – which were the first public remarks by a BOJ board member since the bank raised rates on July 31 – the yen, which had strengthened by a record amount in the past week as the carry trade careened sending deflationary shockwaves around the globe, weakened by more than 2%, bond yields rose and stocks soared. As of 7:30am ET, S&P 500 jumped by 1.2% with both Tech and small-caps outperforming as the BOJ capitulation relief rally continues;’ Nasdaq 100 futures gained more than 1.5% after the underlying indexes rebounded more than 1% on Tuesday following a wave of dip buying. The Stoxx Europe 600 index climbed more than 1%, with mixed earnings reports from some of the region’s biggest companies doing little to dampen the risk-on mood. Japanese stocks led a broad rally in Asia. Bond yields are higher by 4-5bps, and the USD is higher, looking to erase its weekly loss. Commodities have also caught a bid as the carry trade is reestablished with WTI, base metals, and Ags all seeing strength. Mtge Applications and 10Y bond auction are the major macro data pts. Is the panic unwind finished? Are detailed thoughts are below.
In the premarket, Mag7 are all higher and semis are shrugging off SMCI (-12%) catastrophic margin collapse as NVDA, AVGO, AMD, and QCOM lead the group higher each up 1%+. Super Micro Computer crashed 14% reversing a 20% earlier spike, as the computer hardware maker’s disappointing gross margins overshadowed an otherwise strong 2025 net sales forecast. Airbnb also tumbled 14% after the company gave a disappointing outlook for a third consecutive quarter and warned of slowing demand from US vacationers. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Emergent BioSolutions slumps 34% after the company forecast 3Q revenue with a midpoint that fell short of analyst estimates.
- Fortinet rises 16% after the cyber-security company posted a strong margin performance in the 2Q.
- Lumen Technologies soars 24% after the company boosted its full-year free cash flow forecast.
- Porch Group sinks 19% after the home-services software company reported 2Q results that missed expectations, with severe weather weighing.
- Rivian drops 7% after the electric vehicle startup warned of a looming plant shutdown next year to prepare for a new vehicle launch.
- Novo Nordisk A/S shares dropped as much as 5% after the Danish drugmaker cut its profit forecast for the year.
- Shopify gains 17% after posting 2Q results that exceeded analysts’ estimates, suggesting that the Canadian e-commerce company is managing to navigate cautious consumer spending.
- Trex falls 17% after the manufacturer of decking cut its year revenue forecast as 2Q sales fell short of estimates.
- TripAdvisor tumbles 19% after the online travel company reported 2Q revenue that missed consensus estimates.
- Upstart soars 25% after the AI lending marketplace firm gave a 3Q forecast that is stronger than expected.
Volatility is waning as the S&P 500 recovers from its worst one-day drop since September 2022. The VIX plunged another 17% on Wednesday following its biggest plunge since 2010. The biggest event overnight was Uchida’s surprising U-turn, and capitulation, which came less than a week after the BOJ’s historic and unexpected rate hike which unleashed a carry trade unwind and pushed the VIX as high as 65, its biggest increase since the covid crash.
“I wouldn’t underestimate importance of what the Bank of Japan has been saying overnight,” Jennison Associates Managing Director Raj Shant said on Bloomberg TV. “I think that’s really helpful. This carry trade has been many, many years in the making, and probably indirectly affects a lot of asset classes around the world.”
Still, the recent market turmoil was a “stark reminder of how quickly things can change,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James Place. “While overall corporate balance sheets are healthy and recession risks are low, we are starting to see earnings tail off a bit and companies’ guidance is outlining a more uncertain future.”
European stocks follow US futures and Asian counterparts higher after the BOJ capitulation. The Stoxx 600 adds 1.1% with auto, construction and bank names leading gains. Novo Nordisk A/S shares dropped as much as 5% after the Danish drugmaker cut its profit forecast for the year. German lender Commerzbank AG, sportswear maker Puma SE and skin-care products maker Beiersdorf AG also slumped after earnings misses. On the other end, shares in Continental AG rose after the German manufacturer posted improving returns at its struggling car-parts unit, which it may spin off in its biggest-ever restructuring. Dutch lender ABN Amro Bank NV gained after the Dutch lender raised its outlook for lending income, showing how Europe’s high interest rates continue to provide tailwind for the banking industry. The banks sub-index outperformed the benchmark. Here are the biggest European movers:
- Glencore shares climb 1.5%, reversing earlier losses. The company decided to retain its coal and carbon steel materials business after shareholder consultations, a move analysts welcome given its profitability.
- Continental shares rise as much as 5.5% after the German automotive parts maker’s second-quarter results showed what Bernstein called some “rays of hope,” though this was dampened by the cut to the FY24 sales guidance.
- Sampo rises as much as 2.5% following the insurance brokerage firm’s second-quarter earnings report. DNB Markets expects small upgrades to full-year consensus and notes the company’s positive growth momentum.
- GEA Group shares rise as much as 4.4%, the most in five months, after the mechanical engineering firm reported earnings ahead of consensus in the latest quarter.
- Sixt shares fall as much as 1.6%, fluctuating after the vehicle rental firm reported in-line earnings and warned full-year profits will be at the lower-end of its full year guidance.
- Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 7.7%, the most in two years, after the Danish drugmaker reported weaker-than-expected sales for its Wegovy blockbuster in the second quarter.
- Beiersdorf shares drop as much as 5.9%, to the lowest intraday since November 2023, after the maker of personal-care products reported second-quarter results that missed estimates.
- Puma shares drop as much as 14% after the sportswear brand reported second-quarter revenue in constant currency that missed consensus estimates and narrowed its full-year Ebit forecast.
- Maersk shares fall as much as 4.5% after the marine shipping company’s second quarter Ebitda missed estimates. Morgan Stanley notes that the buyback is not being reinstated and says freight rates are starting to move lower.
- Evotec slumps as much as 39%, to the lowest since November 2016, after the German pharmaceutical company announced material cuts to its full-year guidance and also postponed a planned capital markets day in October to evaluate its next strategic steps.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities advanced for a second session following Monday’s global rout, after the Bank of Japan said it won’t raise interest rates if financial markets are unstable. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 2.1%. Japan’s Topix index pared earlier gains to close 2.3% higher as Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida noted the recent volatility in the nation’s markets and said its rate path will shift if there’s an impact on the policy outlook. Benchmarks in South Korea and Taiwan also climbed, with the Taiex index logging its biggest single-day rally since May 2021. Technology stocks led gains across the region as concerns about further unwinding of the yen carry trade eased, with the Japanese currency weakening more than 2% against the dollar. Still, some market watchers remained cautious.
In FX, the Bloomberg index rose for a second day while the yen is around 2% weaker against the dollar with the cross topping just short of 148.00. The weaker yen boosted higher-yielding currencies. The Mexican peso, a carry trade target that tumbled after the BOJ rate hike, rose more than 1% against the dollar Wednesday. The Swiss franc also underperforms with a 1.1% fall. The kiwi outperforms, rising 1% after the unemployment rate rose less than expected.
In rates, treasuries are cheaper across the curve following the deeper selloff in core European rates after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida pledged to refrain from hiking interest rates while markets are unstable. Treasury yields cheaper by 4bp-5bp with curve spreads little changed; 10-year around 3.94% with bunds underperforming by roughly 4.5bp in the sector. Supply is also a factor for Wednesday’s session, with 10-year note auction at 1pm New York time: the auction cycle continues with $42b 10-year new issue, following good result for Tuesday’s $58b 3-year note sale; it ends Thursday with $25b 30-year bond sale. The WI 10-year yield at ~3.93% is roughly 35bp richer than last month’s, which stopped through by 1bp.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.8% to trade near $73.80 a barrel. Spot gold is steady around $2,393/oz. Bitcoin adds 1.7%.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data slate includes June consumer credit at 3pm. Scheduled Fed speakers include Collins at 12pm.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 0.8% to 5,306.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.8% to 492.13
- MXAP up 1.5% to 174.18
- MXAPJ up 1.8% to 546.30
- Nikkei up 1.2% to 35,089.62
- Topix up 2.3% to 2,489.21
- Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 16,877.86
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,869.83
- Sensex up 0.8% to 79,192.71
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,699.83
- Kospi up 1.8% to 2,568.41
- Brent Futures up 0.4% to $76.80/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,393.03
- US Dollar Index up 0.14% to 103.12
- German 10Y yield +7.5bps at 2.28%
- Euro little changed at $1.0925
Top Overnight News
- Japanese stocks rallied on Wednesday and the yen fell after a central bank official appeared to play down the immediate prospects of further interest rate rises in the face of volatile global trade. The Bank of Japan’s deputy governor Shinichi Uchida noted the sharp volatility in domestic and overseas financial markets and said “it is necessary to maintain current levels of monetary easing for the time being”. FT
- China is to impose controls on the production of critical chemicals for the manufacture of fentanyl, in a sign of rising co-operation between Beijing and Washington over efforts to crack down on the deadly synthetic opioid. FT
- SoftBank announced a buyback of as much as ¥500 billion ($3.4 billion), an outlay that still leaves founder Masayoshi Son with a substantial pile of cash as he gears up to make more aggressive investments. The outlay comes as CEO Son is preparing for what appears to be a large-scale push into artificial intelligence and semiconductor investments. BBG
- Iran may be reconsidering a plan for major retaliation against Israel following intensive diplomatic and military pressure from Washington while Netanyahu moves towards the US-brokered ceasefire deal in Gaza. WaPo
- Crude stockpiles at Cushing rose by more than 1 million barrels last week, API data is said to show, the biggest surge in more than two months if confirmed by the EIA. Total inventory also rose. In China, July imports fell to the slowest pace in almost two years. BBG
- Harris is up 3 points over Trump both head-to-head and when 3rd party candidates are considered according to a new Marist poll. The Hill
- Supermicro reported a miss on FQ4 EPS at 6.25 (vs. the Street 8.25) as soft margins (11.3% gross margins vs. the Street 14%) offset inline sales and while the revenue guide is bullish, investors have persistent worries about profitability. RTRS
- Novo plummeted as Wegovy sales missed estimates and it cut its full-year profit outlook. While the drug’s miss will be in focus in the short term, volume trends are strengthening. BBG
- Airbnb reported decent Q2 results, w/revenue +11% FXN to $2.75B (vs. the Street $2.73B), EBITDA +10% FXN to $894MM (vs. the Street $862.3MM), and bookings +12% FXN to $21.2B (about inline), although nights/experiences were a bit light (+9% to 125.1M vs. the Street 126.3M) and the guidance is soft (the Q3 revenue range mid-point is $3.7B vs. the Street’s $3.83B). “We are seeing shorter booking lead times globally and some signs of slowing demand from U.S. guests”. RTRS
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of newsquawk
APAC stocks continued their recent rebound but with some of the gains capped as markets digested mixed Chinese trade data. ASX 200 was positive albeit with the upside limited as participants reflected on the key data from Australia’s largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action in which initially suffered losses but then staged a gradual recovery and was further boosted following comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida who said they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood although the advances in the mainland are limited after the PBoC refrained from injecting funds and the latest Chinese trade data printed mixed.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said their interest rate path will obviously change if as a result of market volatility, economic forecasts, view on risks, and likelihood of achieving the projection change, while he added that they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable and they must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being. Uchida said Japan is not in an environment where they would be behind the curve unless they hike rates at a set pace, as well as noted that a weak yen and subsequent rise in import costs pose upside risks to inflation. Furthermore, Uchida said if the economy and prices move in line with projections, it is appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary easing but also commented that Japan’s real interest rate is very low, monetary conditions are very accommodative and that the scheduled tapering of bond buying likely won’t cause major changes in the degree of monetary easing.
- BoJ’s Uchida says market volatility is very large, will be keeping a close eye on moves and the impact on the economy and prices. Real rates remain low, will underpin the economy. There is no gap in views between Ueda and Uchida, recent Uchida remarks reflect changes in the latest market developments following the last meeting.
- Honda (7267 JT) Q1 (JPY): Net 394bln (exp. 343bln), Operating 484bln (exp. 472bln), PBT 559bln (exp. 508bln). FY Guidance: Downgraded group sales guidance; sees GY global retail sales at 3.9mln vehicles (prev. guided 4.1mln). N. American sales 1.675mln vehicles (prev. guided 1.675mln)
European bourses are firmer intraday, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, with the Stoxx 50 outperforming the Stoxx 600 +1.1% as the latter is weighed on by post-earnings downside in heavyweight Novo Nordisk -3.0%. Given this, Healthcare lags after Novo missed on several key metrics incl. Wegovy sales and downgraded some components of its FY guidance. Banks outperform as yields rise and after strong numbers from ABN AMRO. Breakdown has the DAX 40 +1.5% supported by Continental, which is lifting the broader Auto sector; Commerzbank bucks the banking trend after missing on numerous metrics. Stateside, futures in the green and grinding higher throughout the morning, ES +1.0%, NQ +1.1%; though, action has been choppy at times with newsflow light thus far ex-earnings. Elsewhere, Maersk earnings were mixed with the name lower despite noting market demand has been strong but warns of slower global container demand ahead.
Top European News
- Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Q2 (DKK): Sales 68.06bln (exp. 68.65bln), EBIT 25.94bln (exp. 26.85bln), Wegovy Sales 11.66bln (exp. 13.54bln). CEO: Wegovy prescriptions in the US more doubled vs the start of the year; CFO says negative impact of net impact to net sales of Wegovy in Q2 is due to rebate adjustments; Competitive dynamics will not have an impact on Wegovy sales in the near future. FY Guidance: Sales growth 22-28% at CER (prev. guided 19-27%); Operating Profit growth 20-28% at CER (prev. view 22-30%), CAPEX ~45bln. FCF 59-69bln
- Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q2 (USD): EBITDA 2.1bln (exp. 2.27bln), EBIT 963mln (exp. 810mln), EPS 51 (exp. 55.5). Market demand has been strong, Red Sea situation remains entrenched. CEO says they could see some pulling forward of demand, most notably within the US due to the upcoming election and associated uncertainty around future import tariffs. Adds, industrial action following pending union talks in the US could lead to further supply chain disruptions.
- UK Chancellor Reeves aims to follow a “Canadian model” to consolidate GBP 360bln of smaller local government pension schemes to aid in boosting investment and “fire up the economy”, according to The Times.
FX
- USD supported with the DXY bid and above 103.00 but off overnight best levels of 103.37. Strength which came as USD/JPY soared above 147.50 after remarks from BoJ’s Uchida that they won’t hike when markets are unstable.
- As such, JPY is the clear laggard but followed relatively closely by the CHF as the positive tone means haven demand is waning and as yields rally and weigh on the likes of CHF and JPY.
- Sterling modestly firmer, but has been below 1.27 in a 1.2681-1.2718 band. Specifics light but strength coming via EUR downside and associated pressure in EUR/GBP to back below 0.86.
- EUR/USD itself holding around 1.0905 and is close to, but yet to test, the figure to the downside; no real reaction to mixed German data this morning.
- Antipodeans benefit from the risk tone with NZD outperforming after encouraging employment data and as the AUD takes a slight breather from RBA-inspired strength; nonetheless, it remain underpinned with strong Chinese imports assisting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1386 vs exp. 7.1481 (prev. 7.1318).
- Japan’s currency intervention amounted to JPY 5.92tln on April 29th and JPY 3.87tln on May 1st, while the April 29th intervention was a single-day record and surpassed the previous record of JPY 5.62tln on 21st October 2002, according to Ministry of Finance data.
Fixed Income
- Benchmarks continue to falter despite opening the European morning with modest gains. Downside which has pushed Bunds below the 134.00 mark vs. a 136.28 peak on Monday.
- Supply was uneventful in terms of reaction from Germany and the UK, though the latter was a touch softer than recent taps; reminder, US 10yr later.
- Gilts pressured but to a slightly lesser magnitude with little by way of specific driver to note. Further downside brings the 99.00 mark into view and then numerous recent lows below this.
- Amidst this, USTs are also softer but only modestly so with the docket ahead thin ex-earnings until 10yr supply which follows an unremarkable 3yr tap on Tuesday.
- Chinese regulators are reportedly restricting the duration of new bond funds, restrictions target mutual fund managers, according to Reuters sources.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 2.87x (prev. 3.10x), average yield 3.854% (prev. 4.023%) & tail 0.9bps (prev. 0.9bps)
- Germany sells EUR 0.407bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 1.00% 2038 Bund & EUR 1.199bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 Bund
Commodities
- Crude benchmarks began with a mild positive tilt and have been gradually extending on this throughout the morning. WTI and Brent at the top-end of parameters and are holding around USD 74.11/bb and USD 77.42/bbl respectively.
- Benchmarks aided by the USD being slightly off best (though still firmer) and with gepol. risk still a key factor alongside the recent production halt at El Sharara.
- Metals are mixed, spot silver once again underperforms its gold counterpart a touch which itself is approaching a test of USD 2400/oz to the upside. Base metals are primarily weaker after mixed Chinese trade data and with Copper leading the downside after a mammoth LME stock build.
- LME Stocks: Copper +42,175t (prev. +1,225t)
- Chinese gold reserves unchanged M/M at 72.8mln fine troy ounces
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.2mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate +1.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Gasoline +3.3mln (exp. -1mln), Cushing +1.1mln.
Geopolitics
- Israel estimates that Hezbollah will attack before Iran, according to Israel’s Kann News. Israel Broadcasting Corporation also reported that estimates indicate Hezbollah will carry out the attack before Iran and will use precision missiles, according to Al Arabiya. Furthermore, a source via X reported that Israeli intelligence said a possible Hezbollah attack could occur in the next 24-48 hours.
- Israel’s Channel 12 News reported that advanced preparations and planning are underway within the Israeli Military for the launch of pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, prior to their coordinated attack against Israel with Iran.
- IDF struck a building in a Lebanese village targeting Hezbollah operatives, according to Times of Israel.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said they have communicated directly to Iran and Israel that no one should escalate the conflict in the Middle East, while he added that Gaza hostage negotiations have reached the final stage and it is critical that parties work to finalise the agreement as soon as possible. Blinken also said everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict, instability, and insecurity for everyone.
- US Defence Secretary Austin said the US will not tolerate attacks on US personnel in the Middle East and that they are sure Iran-backed militia was behind the attack on US troops in Iraq, according to Reuters. Austin also said they are ready to deploy more troops to the region if they see a threat to their interests and the security of allies, according to Al Arabiya.
- “Iranian News Agency: Equipping the eastern regions of the Iran with radar, air defense systems and drones”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- “Sirens sound in Shtula, northern Israel”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Australia, Canada, the Philippines and the US are to hold joint maritime exercises on August 7th-8th in the South China Sea. It was later reported that China’s military organised a joint combat patrol over the sea and airspace near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: Aug. MBA Mortgage Applications 6.9%, prior -3.9%
- 15:00: June Consumer Credit, est. $10b, prior $11.4b
Central Bank speakers
- 12:00: Fed’s Collins Visits Rhode Island
2B EUROPEAN REPORT
Sentiment lifts with earnings in focus, USD/JPY above 147.50 on Uchida remarks – Newsquawk US Market Open
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 06:42 AM
- European bourses are firmer but with divergence in the main benchmarks on account of Novo Nordisk slipping post-earnings, Stoxx 600 +1.1%
- Stateside, futures in the green with action choppy at times as we count down to key earnings incl. DIS; ES +1.1%
- DXY bid and above 103.00 but slightly off best, upside driven by Uchida-driven JPY weakness; USD/JPY over 147.50 in APAC trade
- Fixed benchmarks continue to falter from recent highs and look ahead to US 10yr supply
- Crude in the green with recent drivers continuing to factor, metals mixed and copper leads the downside after Chinese data & a sizeable LME build
- Looking ahead, highlights include BoC Minutes, Comments ECB’s Rehn, Supply from the US, Earnings from Disney.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses are firmer intraday, Euro Stoxx 50 +1.7%, with the Stoxx 50 outperforming the Stoxx 600 +1.1% as the latter is weighed on by post-earnings downside in heavyweight Novo Nordisk -3.0%.
- Given this, Healthcare lags after Novo missed on several key metrics incl. Wegovy sales and downgraded some components of its FY guidance. Banks outperform as yields rise and after strong numbers from ABN AMRO.
- Breakdown has the DAX 40 +1.5% supported by Continental, which is lifting the broader Auto sector; Commerzbank bucks the banking trend after missing on numerous metrics.
- Stateside, futures in the green and grinding higher throughout the morning, ES +1.0%, NQ +1.1%; though, action has been choppy at times with newsflow light thus far ex-earnings.
- Elsewhere, Maersk earnings were mixed with the name lower despite noting market demand has been strong but warns of slower global container demand ahead.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- USD supported with the DXY bid and above 103.00 but off overnight best levels of 103.37. Strength which came as USD/JPY soared above 147.50 after remarks from BoJ’s Uchida that they won’t hike when markets are unstable.
- As such, JPY is the clear laggard but followed relatively closely by the CHF as the positive tone means haven demand is waning and as yields rally and weigh on the likes of CHF and JPY.
- Sterling modestly firmer, but has been below 1.27 in a 1.2681-1.2718 band. Specifics light but strength coming via EUR downside and associated pressure in EUR/GBP to back below 0.86.
- EUR/USD itself holding around 1.0905 and is close to, but yet to test, the figure to the downside; no real reaction to mixed German data this morning.
- Antipodeans benefit from the risk tone with NZD outperforming after encouraging employment data and as the AUD takes a slight breather from RBA-inspired strength; nonetheless, it remain underpinned with strong Chinese imports assisting.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1386 vs exp. 7.1481 (prev. 7.1318).
- Japan’s currency intervention amounted to JPY 5.92tln on April 29th and JPY 3.87tln on May 1st, while the April 29th intervention was a single-day record and surpassed the previous record of JPY 5.62tln on 21st October 2002, according to Ministry of Finance data.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- Benchmarks continue to falter despite opening the European morning with modest gains. Downside which has pushed Bunds below the 134.00 mark vs. a 136.28 peak on Monday.
- Supply was uneventful in terms of reaction from Germany and the UK, though the latter was a touch softer than recent taps; reminder, US 10yr later.
- Gilts pressured but to a slightly lesser magnitude with little by way of specific driver to note. Further downside brings the 99.00 mark into view and then numerous recent lows below this.
- Amidst this, USTs are also softer but only modestly so with the docket ahead thin ex-earnings until 10yr supply which follows an unremarkable 3yr tap on Tuesday.
- Chinese regulators are reportedly restricting the duration of new bond funds, restrictions target mutual fund managers, according to Reuters sources.
- UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 2.87x (prev. 3.10x), average yield 3.854% (prev. 4.023%) & tail 0.9bps (prev. 0.9bps)
- Germany sells EUR 0.407bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 1.00% 2038 Bund & EUR 1.199bln vs exp. EUR 1.5bln 2.60% 2041 Bund
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude benchmarks began with a mild positive tilt and have been gradually extending on this throughout the morning. WTI and Brent at the top-end of parameters and are holding around USD 74.11/bb and USD 77.42/bbl respectively.
- Benchmarks aided by the USD being slightly off best (though still firmer) and with gepol. risk still a key factor alongside the recent production halt at El Sharara.
- Metals are mixed, spot silver once again underperforms its gold counterpart a touch which itself is approaching a test of USD 2400/oz to the upside. Base metals are primarily weaker after mixed Chinese trade data and with Copper leading the downside after a mammoth LME stock build.
- LME Stocks: Copper +42,175t (prev. +1,225t)
- Chinese gold reserves unchanged M/M at 72.8mln fine troy ounces
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.2mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate +1.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Gasoline +3.3mln (exp. -1mln), Cushing +1.1mln.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- German Industrial Output MM (Jun) 1.4% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. -2.5%)
- German Exports MM SA (Jun) -3.4% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. -3.6%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) Q2 (DKK): Sales 68.06bln (exp. 68.65bln), EBIT 25.94bln (exp. 26.85bln), Wegovy Sales 11.66bln (exp. 13.54bln). CEO: Wegovy prescriptions in the US more doubled vs the start of the year; CFO says negative impact of net impact to net sales of Wegovy in Q2 is due to rebate adjustments; Competitive dynamics will not have an impact on Wegovy sales in the near future. FY Guidance: Sales growth 22-28% at CER (prev. guided 19-27%); Operating Profit growth 20-28% at CER (prev. view 22-30%), CAPEX ~45bln. FCF 59-69bln
- Maersk (MAERSKB DC) Q2 (USD): EBITDA 2.1bln (exp. 2.27bln), EBIT 963mln (exp. 810mln), EPS 51 (exp. 55.5). Market demand has been strong, Red Sea situation remains entrenched. CEO says they could see some pulling forward of demand, most notably within the US due to the upcoming election and associated uncertainty around future import tariffs. Adds, industrial action following pending union talks in the US could lead to further supply chain disruptions.
- UK Chancellor Reeves aims to follow a “Canadian model” to consolidate GBP 360bln of smaller local government pension schemes to aid in boosting investment and “fire up the economy“, according to The Times.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US Election Poll showed Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% in National NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
- US Democratic Presidential nominee Harris confirmed Minnesota Governor Walz as her running mate, according to CNN.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel estimates that Hezbollah will attack before Iran, according to Israel’s Kann News. Israel Broadcasting Corporation also reported that estimates indicate Hezbollah will carry out the attack before Iran and will use precision missiles, according to Al Arabiya. Furthermore, a source via X reported that Israeli intelligence said a possible Hezbollah attack could occur in the next 24-48 hours.
- Israel’s Channel 12 News reported that advanced preparations and planning are underway within the Israeli Military for the launch of pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, prior to their coordinated attack against Israel with Iran.
- IDF struck a building in a Lebanese village targeting Hezbollah operatives, according to Times of Israel.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said they have communicated directly to Iran and Israel that no one should escalate the conflict in the Middle East, while he added that Gaza hostage negotiations have reached the final stage and it is critical that parties work to finalise the agreement as soon as possible. Blinken also said everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict, instability, and insecurity for everyone.
- US Defence Secretary Austin said the US will not tolerate attacks on US personnel in the Middle East and that they are sure Iran-backed militia was behind the attack on US troops in Iraq, according to Reuters. Austin also said they are ready to deploy more troops to the region if they see a threat to their interests and the security of allies, according to Al Arabiya.
- “Iranian News Agency: Equipping the eastern regions of the Iran with radar, air defense systems and drones”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- “Sirens sound in Shtula, northern Israel”, according to Sky News Arabia.
OTHER
- Australia, Canada, the Philippines and the US are to hold joint maritime exercises on August 7th-8th in the South China Sea. It was later reported that China’s military organised a joint combat patrol over the sea and airspace near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin a touch firmer on the session but with action largely rangebound and well within recent parameters around the USD 56k mark.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks continued their recent rebound but with some of the gains capped as markets digested mixed Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 was positive albeit with the upside limited as participants reflected on the key data from Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action in which initially suffered losses but then staged a gradual recovery and was further boosted following comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida who said they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood although the advances in the mainland are limited after the PBoC refrained from injecting funds and the latest Chinese trade data printed mixed.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said their interest rate path will obviously change if as a result of market volatility, economic forecasts, view on risks, and likelihood of achieving the projection change, while he added that they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable and they must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being. Uchida said Japan is not in an environment where they would be behind the curve unless they hike rates at a set pace, as well as noted that a weak yen and subsequent rise in import costs pose upside risks to inflation. Furthermore, Uchida said if the economy and prices move in line with projections, it is appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary easing but also commented that Japan’s real interest rate is very low, monetary conditions are very accommodative and that the scheduled tapering of bond buying likely won’t cause major changes in the degree of monetary easing.
- BoJ’s Uchida says market volatility is very large, will be keeping a close eye on moves and the impact on the economy and prices. Real rates remain low, will underpin the economy. There is no gap in views between Ueda and Uchida, recent Uchida remarks reflect changes in the latest market developments following the last meeting.
- Honda (7267 JT) Q1 (JPY): Net 394bln (exp. 343bln), Operating 484bln (exp. 472bln), PBT 559bln (exp. 508bln). FY Guidance: Downgraded group sales guidance; sees GY global retail sales at 3.9mln vehicles (prev. guided 4.1mln). N. American sales 1.675mln vehicles (prev. guided 1.675mln)
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jul) 84.65B vs. Exp. 99.0B (Prev. 99.05B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Jul) 7.0% vs. Exp. 9.7% (Prev. 8.6%); Imports YY (USD)(Jul) 7.2% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. -2.3%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jul) 601.9B (Prev. 703.7B)
- Chinese Exports (CNY)(Jul) 6.5% (Prev. 10.7%)
- Chinese Imports (CNY)(Jul) 6.6% (Prev. -0.6%)
- New Zealand HLFS Job Growth QQ (Q2) 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
- New Zealand HLFS Unemployment Rate (Q2) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.3%)
- New Zealand HLFS Participation Rate (Q2) 71.7% vs. Exp. 71.3% (Prev. 71.5%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index QQ (Q2) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index YY (Q2) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.8%)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
USD/JPY rallied after BoJ’s Uchida spoke, earnings in focus – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 01:53 AM
- APAC stocks continued their recent rebound but with some of the gains capped as markets digested mixed Chinese trade data.
- USD/JPY rallied to above the 147.00 level in an aggressive reaction to comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida who said they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable and must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being.
- White House said the US has seen some volatility in the economy, but the broader economy is resilient, and the economic team is going to monitor the ongoing situation; US Election Poll showed Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% in National NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
- European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.1% Tuesday.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production, Chinese FX Reserves, BoC Minutes, Comments ECB’s Rehn, Supply from the UK, Germany & US, Earnings from ABN AMRO, Continental, Commerzbank, Novo Nordisk, Puma, Siemens Energy, Glencore & Disney.
- Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks rebounded from the recent bloodbath with broad-based gains in which all sectors were in the green although the major indices closed off their best levels as the recovery lost steam in the afternoon and profit-taking was seen heading towards the close amid light fresh catalysts and ongoing geopolitical risks.
- SPX +1.04% at 5,240, NDX +1.02% at 18,078, DJI +0.76% at 38,998, RUT +1.23% at 2,064.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- White House said the US has seen some volatility in the economy but the broader economy is resilient and the economic team is going to monitor the ongoing situation.
- US Election Poll showed Harris leads Trump 51% to 48% in National NPR/PBS/Marist poll.
- US Democratic Presidential nominee Harris confirmed Minnesota Governor Walz as her running mate, according to CNN.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks continued their recent rebound but with some of the gains capped as markets digested mixed Chinese trade data.
- ASX 200 was positive albeit with the upside limited as participants reflected on the key data from Australia’s largest trading partner.
- Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action in which initially suffered losses but then staged a gradual recovery and was further boosted following comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida who said they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the upbeat mood although the advances in the mainland are limited after the PBoC refrained from injecting funds and the latest Chinese trade data printed mixed.
- US equity futures remained in recovery mode but with price action contained within yesterday’s parameters.
- European equity futures indicate a firmer open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 1.3% after the cash market finished with gains of 0.1% Tuesday.
FX
- DXY reclaimed the 103.00 status mainly due to a surge in USD/JPY with the buck ultimately mixed against its major peers.
- USD/JPY rallied to above the 147.00 level in an aggressive reaction to comments from BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida who said they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable and must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being.
- EUR/USD marginally softened in uneventful trade and approached closer towards another retest of support around the 1.0900 level.
- GBP/USD eked mild gains and returned to the 1.2700 handle but with upside capped amid a lack of fresh catalysts.
- Antipodeans benefitted from the positive risk tone with outperformance in NZD/USD after encouraging jobs data and firmer-than-expected labour cash earnings, while Chinese trade data was mixed as exports disappointed but imports topped forecasts.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1386 vs exp. 7.1481 (prev. 7.1318).
- Japan’s currency intervention amounted to JPY 5.92tln on April 29th and JPY 3.87tln on May 1st, while the April 29th intervention was a single-day record and surpassed the previous record of JPY 5.62tln on 21st October 2002, according to Ministry of Finance data.
FIXED INCOME
- 10-year UST futures languished at this week’s trough after recent bear steepening as the rebound in equities weighed on the curve.
- Bund futures retreated beneath the 135.00 level with German trade data, industrial output and Bund supply due later.
- 10-year JGB futures were initially indecisive amid early fluctuations in Japanese stocks but were then supported by dovish BoJ comments.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures traded rangebound after recent indecision and as bearish private sector inventory data was counterbalanced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and fears of an imminent retaliation by Hezbollah and Iran against Israel.
- US Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude +0.2mln (exp. -0.7mln), Distillate +1.2mln (exp. +0.2mln), Gasoline +3.3mln (exp. -1mln), Cushing +1.1mln.
- EIA STEO kept its 2024 world oil demand growth unchanged at a 1.1mln BPD Y/Y increase but lowered its forecast for 2025 world oil demand growth to 1.6mln BPD (prev. 1.8mln BPD).
- Spot gold was contained amid gains in the dollar and a lack of haven demand.
- Copper futures were subdued and have failed to benefit from the positive risk tone with prices stuck near the USD 4/lb level amid mixed Chinese trade data
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin gained alongside the positive risk tone and tested the USD 57,000 level to the upside.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Deputy Governor Uchida said their interest rate path will obviously change if as a result of market volatility, economic forecasts, view on risks, and likelihood of achieving the projection change, while he added that they won’t hike rates when markets are unstable and they must maintain the current degree of monetary easing for the time being. Uchida said Japan is not in an environment where they would be behind the curve unless they hike rates at a set pace, as well as noted that a weak yen and subsequent rise in import costs pose upside risks to inflation. Furthermore, Uchida said if the economy and prices move in line with projections, it is appropriate to adjust the degree of monetary easing but also commented that Japan’s real interest rate is very low, monetary conditions are very accommodative and that the scheduled tapering of bond buying likely won’t cause major changes in the degree of monetary easing.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Jul) 84.65B vs. Exp. 99.0B (Prev. 99.05B)
- Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Jul) 7.0% vs. Exp. 9.7% (Prev. 8.6%)
- Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Jul) 7.2% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. -2.3%)
- Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Jul) 601.9B (Prev. 703.7B)
- Chinese Exports (CNY)(Jul) 6.5% (Prev. 10.7%)
- Chinese Imports (CNY)(Jul) 6.6% (Prev. -0.6%)
- New Zealand HLFS Job Growth QQ (Q2) 0.4% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
- New Zealand HLFS Unemployment Rate (Q2) 4.6% vs. Exp. 4.7% (Prev. 4.3%)
- New Zealand HLFS Participation Rate (Q2) 71.7% vs. Exp. 71.3% (Prev. 71.5%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index QQ (Q2) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index YY (Q2) 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.8%)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel estimates that Hezbollah will attack before Iran, according to Israel’s Kann News. Israel Broadcasting Corporation also reported that estimates indicate Hezbollah will carry out the attack before Iran and will use precision missiles, according to Al Arabiya. Furthermore, a source via X reported that Israeli intelligence said a possible Hezbollah attack could occur in the next 24-48 hours.
- Israel’s Channel 12 News reported that advanced preparations and planning are underway within the Israeli Military for the launch of pre-emptive strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, prior to their coordinated attack against Israel with Iran.
- IDF struck a building in a Lebanese village targeting Hezbollah operatives, according to Times of Israel.
- Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah said their response is coming which will be strong and effective. It was also reported that Hezbollah congratulated Yahya Sinwar on being selected as Hamas leader and said that Sinwar’s choice confirms that the enemy’s goals of killing leaders have failed to achieve their goal.White House does not believe the response has begun yet against Israel from Iran or Hezbollah.
- US President Biden spoke with Qatar and Egypt’s leaders on efforts for a Gaza ceasefire and to de-escalate Middle East tensions.
- US Secretary of State Blinken said they have communicated directly to Iran and Israel that no one should escalate the conflict in the Middle East, while he added that Gaza hostage negotiations have reached the final stage and it is critical that parties work to finalise the agreement as soon as possible. Blinken also said everyone in the region should understand that further attacks only perpetuate conflict, instability, and insecurity for everyone.
- US Defence Secretary Austin said the US will not tolerate attacks on US personnel in the Middle East and that they are sure Iran-backed militia was behind the attack on US troops in Iraq, according to Reuters. Austin also said they are ready to deploy more troops to the region if they see a threat to their interests and the security of allies, according to Al Arabiya.
OTHER
- Australia, Canada, the Philippines and the US are to hold joint maritime exercises on August 7th-8th in the South China Sea. It was later reported that China’s military organised a joint combat patrol over the sea and airspace near the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK Chancellor Reeves aims to follow a “Canadian model” to consolidate GBP 360bln of smaller local government pension schemes to aid in boosting investment and “fire up the economy“, according to The Times.
2D JAPAN
Bank of Japan capitulates after its policy error in raising interest rates by .15%. They promise not to raise rates when markets are unstable. That means never. Now the Yen will fall badly which will unleash increasing inflation into the country and also Japan will export inflation around the globe.
(zerohedge)
Capitulation: Yen Plunges, Nikkei Soars After BOJ’s Uchida Says “Will Not Raise Rates When Markets Are Unstable”
TUESDAY, AUG 06, 2024 – 10:56 PM
It hasn’t been even a full week since the BOJ’s catastrophic decision to hike rates by 25bps in a slowing, deflating economy, a decision which we said the BOJ would make for purely political reasons, yet which touched on in our preview last week….
BOJ preview: whatever is the dumbest possible thing that can happen, is what will happen. 100% guaranteed
·
732.3K Views
… a decision which we also said would be reversed on very short notice…
Who will cut first: BOJ or Fed
·https://x.com/zerohedge/status/1819383302920220987
160.1K Views
… once the Japanese stock markets crashed after the weekend, just as expected…
There it is *JAPAN’S TOPIX INDEX EXTENDS DROP TO MORE THAN 6%
Quote
zerohedge
@zerohedge
·
Aug 2
Japanese stocks set for Black Monday: Topix facing 6% drop after 6% drop Friday. BOJ panic guaranteed
·
401.8K Views
… and not just any crash but the biggest point crash in Nikkei and Topix history, surpassing even Black Monday and guaranteeing that whatever political considerations were prevalent when the BOJ decided to throw away its own rulebook and follow political pressure to spike the yen in order to contain inflation – while also crashing the stock market by 20% in 3 days – would be promptly overruled and the BOJ would capitulate in due course, as we explained just last night in “After A “Perfect Storm In The Vol Market”, Goldman Says “We Are About To Enter The Central Bank Response Phase“, in which we wrote that “we are not going down because of recession but because of an unwind of circa 20trilion carry trades” adding that “only BOJ can stop this.”
And while we were correct in predicting that “the BOJ has no choice and is merely prolonging the inevitable”…
Why the BOJ has no choice and is merely prolonging the inevitable: “at a gross balance sheet value of around 500% GDP or $20 trillion, the Japanese government’s balance sheet is, simply put, one giant carry trade.” – DB
·
1M Views
… little did we know just how soon the BOJ would stop prolonging the inevitable – and admit it has no choice – because less than a day later, the Japanese central bank confirmed everything we said in the past 72 hours when BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida capitulated shortly after 10am local time, when, pressed for answers to the ongoing market collapse, he sent a strong dovish signal in the wake of historic financial market volatility in Japan by pledging to refrain from hiking interest rates when the markets are unstable.
Uchida tried to save face, but in the end the only thing the market heard is that rate hikes are basically over after last week’s teeny, tiny 10-25bps rate increase unleashed a global deflationary tsunami and crashed Japan’s market.
“I believe that the bank needs to maintain monetary easing with the current policy interest rate for the time being, with developments in financial and capital markets at home and abroad being extremely volatile,” Uchida said in a speech Wednesday to local business leaders in Hakodate, northern Japan, where apparently he did not make a Freudian slip confusing “tightening” with “easing” because he actually did mean easing!
Uchida spoke after Japanese stocks crashed in predictable reaction to the BOJ crushing the yen carry trade… or rather predictable to anyone but the erudite policymakers at the BOJ.
More importantly, the deputy chief suggested that the bank will carefully consider the state of financial markets in future decisions on rate policy, and as noted above, will refrain from any more rate hikes when markets are unstable.
“In contrast to the process of policy interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, Japan’s economy is not in a situation where the bank may fall behind the curve if it does not raise the policy interest rate at a certain pace,” Uchida said. “Therefore, the bank will not raise its policy interest rate when financial and capital markets are unstable.”
Well, dear central banker, a quick primer: this is called passive aggressive forward guidance. The Japanese market will now NEVER become “stable”, in doing so preventing any more rate hikes, and in fact will become so unstable the BOJ will have to cut again.
According to Bloomberg, Uchida, a dovish veteran policy architect, who was heavily involved with designing the BOJ’s massive monetary easing program that ran for more than a decade, is widely known for playing a prominent role in mapping out Governor Ueda’s journey toward normalizing policy. The BOJ ended the ultraeasy policy in March with its first hike in 17 years. And it now appears that the BOJ’s attempts to renormalize policy ended with a thud on the morning of August 7.
For confirmation one has to look no further than the yen which immediately tumbled by more than 2% against the dollar…
…. and Japanese stocks soared immediately after his comments…
… which were not only the first public remarks by a BOJ board member since the bank hiked interest rates on July 31, but also the first remarks to admit that last week’s rate hike had been a catastrophic policy error.
And now, we sit back and watch as the carry trade is put back on, and the BOJ desperately tries to refloat the $20 trillion carry trade titanic which as we reported on Sunday night, is now in the process of sinking. The good news, at least for the Kamala administration, is that the BOJ’s panicked concession will enable US stocks to surge once again as the carry trade is promptly re-established.
The sellside brigades, especially those who were predicting a 130 USDJPY in the very near future, were quick to jump on the realization that the BOJ just capitulated:
- According to Credit Agricole CIB, Uchida comment confirms the BOJ will likely be gun-shy about hiking rates again soon (or ever) which will weigh on the the yen.
- “The 3-way meeting between the FSA, MOF and BOJ left the BoJ substantially chastized with new Vice Minister for International Affairs, Mimura, saying the BoJ will pay attention to the volatility in financial markets,” said the bank’s FX strategist David Forrester.
- The Bank of Singapore also chimed in, writing that “the outsized yen rally is making policymakers uncomfortable”, which is evident from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida’s comments on interest rates.
Unfortunately for the BOJ, by admitting defeat it has just dug its own grave for the last time, and having capitulated on further tightening just because of a modest bear market in stocks, the full court press to short the yen is now back on and we expect it won’t stop until the currency hits new record lows in the very near future, with the BOJ now completely powerless to do anything as Japan’s hyperinflation finally kicks in.
end
3 CHINA
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND
England is a Muslim migrant mess with rioting throughout the country e.g. Birmingham and Plymouth.
(courtesy Watson/ModernityNews)
British PM: A “Standing Army” Of Riot Police Is On Hand To Deal With “Far Right Thuggery”
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
British Prime Minister Kier Starmer announced Monday that there is a “standing army” of riot police ready to combat “thuggery” in the streets, which he attributed to the ‘Far Right’.
Protests have been flaring for days since the brutal murder of three young girls, and the attempted murder of several more children, with the accused the son of immigrant parents from Rwanda in East Africa.
After an emergency meeting, Starmer stated that among measures to be taken by the government against protests that turn violent, “The first is we’ll have a standing army of specialist officers… so that we’ll have enough officers to deal with this where we need them.”
The use of the phrase is interesting given its historical context in Great Britain.
Starmer stated that “Whatever the apparent motivation, this is not protest. It is pure violence and we will not tolerate attacks on mosques or our Muslim communities,” adding “The full force of the law will be visited on all those who are identified as having taken part in these activities.”
Starmer’s comments were picked up by X owner Elon Musk, who responded “Shouldn’t you be concerned about attacks on *all* communities?”
https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-
Musk also posted that “civil war is inevitable” prompting Starmer to respond, saying there is “no justification” for such comments.
“What we’ve seen in this country is organised violent thuggery that has no place either on our streets or online,” a spokesman for the Prime Minister added.https://
http://www.youtube.com/embed/6qymh7qWwfQ
As we highlighted earlier, the BBC described a riot in Birmingham during which a pub was besieged, innocent people violently attacked and news reporters harassed and followed as “largely peaceful,” while failing to identify those behind it as Muslim men.
Hundreds of them, many carrying weapons, gathered on the streets of Birmingham near the Village Islamic Centre after rumours that there would be a “far-right” rally, which never materialised.
BBC Describes Violent Birmingham Riot as “Largely Peaceful”
The “standing army” of police was no where to be seen as bystanders just minding their own business were violently attacked, presumably just for being white, and in one instance a pub with non-Muslim people inside was swarmed and vandalised.
Police were out in force, however, in Plymouth in the south of the country, where white English people, labeled by Starmer as the “Far Right” gathered to once again protest.
While they were not seen carrying weapons or smashing up property, police made sure to threaten them with attack dogs, while ‘counter protesters’ ripped bricks from the walls of a church and hurled them literally over the heads of police.
Later in the evening, mobs of Muslim men were captured running around with knives and screaming “Allahu Akbar”. One police officer was heard admitting that there isn’t a lot they can do about it, saying “I know, I wish I could.”
This guy, though, he’s the real threat:
Police issued a statement noting that the majority of people behaved within the law.
While there has unfortunately been unrest, provocation, vandalism and violence from both sides, contrasting scenes like these have led to accusations of “two tier policing.”https://www.youtube.com/embed/JRXULDzT69g
* * *
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5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
/ISRAEL/HAMAS/
IRAN/USA
USA for whatever reason now is sending more missile defense warships to the Middle East
and this might deter Iran from striking
(JerusalemPost)
US sends more missile defense warships to Middle East amid Iran tensions
Austin stressed that the United States “remains intensely focused on de-escalating tensions in the region,” he said.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFAUGUST 7, 2024 04:54
The United States sent additional warships to the Middle East that are capable of defending against missiles amid an increase in tensions between Iran and Israel. “We’ve adjusted our military posture to strengthen our force protection,” US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin said at a press conference in Maryland.This will “reinforce our ironclad commitment to the offense of Israel” and allow the US to “remain prepared to respond to any contingency.” “To maintain our carrier strike group presence in the Middle East, I’ve ordered the USS Abraham Lincoln to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt later this month,” he said.
“I’ve also ordered more cruisers and destroyers capable of ballistic missile defense to the region,” Austin stressed.
Another fighter squadron has also been deployed to the Middle East “to reinforce our defensive air support capabilities here,” he added.
“These posture adjustments add to our already broad range of capabilities in the region” that can be deployed on “short notice to meet evolving threats to our security, our partners, or our interests.”
The US remains focused on de-escalating tensions in the Middle East
Austin stressed that the United States “remains intensely focused on de-escalating tensions in the region,” he said.Israel has been involved in a multi-front war against Iranian proxy groups Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis in Yemen.The twin assassinations last week of Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran have threatened to escalate the situation.Iran and Hezbollah have both threatened escalatory action against Israel.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
Iran may have second thoughts on striking Israel with the huge American show of force
(JerusalemPost)
Iran may be reconsidering major strike on Israel after American show of force – report
The report comes after the US sent more warships to the region in preparation for an Iranian-led attack on Israel.
By SAM HALPERNAUGUST 7, 2024 09:38Updated: AUGUST 7, 2024 10:35
Iran may be reconsidering its vow of a harsh reprisal on Israel for last week’s assassination of Hamas political bureau leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Washington Post columnist David Ignatius reported on Wednesday morning, citing White House officials.
The regime’s proxy militia in Lebanon, Hezbollah, is still a “wild card,” however, Ignatius added.
The Post columnist noted that the Biden administration has been sending strong messages to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to stand in the way of hostage deal-ceasefire negotiations and messages, via regional partners, to Tehran urging restraint in its response.
Warships moved to the region
Additionally, in a show of force, the US has sent more warships to the region in preparation for an Iranian-led attack on Israel.
The warships are equipped with anti-missile capabilities.
Speaking at a press conference in Maryland, US Secretary of State Lloyd Austin stated, “We’ve adjusted our military posture to strengthen our force protection.”
This follows US General Michael Kurilla’s arrival in Israel this week to aid the coordination of efforts to deter or defend against an Iranian attack.
The Post added in a Wednesday report that the Biden administration was continuing to move quickly in order to try to prevent further escalation in the region.
Both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris reportedly met with top advisers in the White House’s Situation Room this week to discuss the matter.
Additionally, the American media outlet added that a squadron of F-22 fighter jets was among the US assets scrambled closer to Israel.
Biden and Harris also reportedly discussed with advisors the attack by Iranian-backed Iraqi insurgents that wounded American forces in the region.
Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report. This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL//HAMAS/GAZA
Israel ready to strike Beit Hanoun, north Gaza as a reinvasion is imminent
(JerusalemPost)
IDF warns Gazans to evacuate Beit Hanoun, reinvasion imminent
Beit Hanoun, where the IDF is reportedly set to again operate, is a city located in the northern portion of the Gaza Strip.
By SAM HALPERNAUGUST 7, 2024 08:18Updated: AUGUST 7, 2024 11:22
IDF Arabic Spokesperson Avichay Adraee warned Gazan civilians in the Beit Hanoun area of Gaza, including those in the Manshiyya and Sheikh Zayed neighborhoods and those currently residing in shelters in the vicinity, to evacuate the area in a post to X, formerly Twitter, early Wednesday morning.
Beit Hanoun is a city located in the northern portion of the Gaza Strip.
نداء الى كل المتواجدين في منطقة بيت حانون واحياء المنشية والشيخ زايد والنازحين في داخل المآوي في المنطقة
حماس والمنظمات الإرهابية تطلق الصواريخ من منطقتكم نحو دولة اسرائيل. جيش الدفاع الإسرائيلي سوف يعمل بقوة وفوراً ضدهم.
من اجل أمنكم، اخلوا بشكل فوري الى المآوي المعروفة في مركز مدينة غزةTranslate post
·
97.6K Views
Adraee noted that Hamas and other terrorist organizations were using the area to fire rockets at Israel, and the IDF was set to “act forcefully against them.”
The Arabic-language spokesperson added that those in the area should immediately evacuate to shelters in central Gaza City.
Rockets fired from northern Gaza
On Tuesday evening, rocket alarms sounded in the southern Israeli localities of Ashkelon, Sderot, Ibim, Nir Am, and Zikim.
Shortly thereafter, the IDF reported that it had identified three rockets crossing from northern Gaza.
The military added that one of the rockets was intercepted by Israel’s aerial defense array, and the others fell in open areas. No injuries were reported.
END
OPINION
ISRAEL/GAZA
Sinwar replacing Haniyeh may help advance hostage negotiations and end the war – opinion
If Ismail Haniyeh represented a tougher stance in the deal negotiations compared to Sinwar’s more pragmatic line, an obstacle has been removed, the author writes.
By KOBI MICHAELAUGUST 7, 2024 10:25Updated: AUGUST 7, 2024 10:26
Hamas officially announced Tuesday night that Yahya Sinwar has been appointed head of the organization’s political bureau, replacing Ismail Haniyeh. This makes him Hamas’s de facto new sole leader.
This comes as a surprise. Sinwar’s name was not mentioned as a possible candidate in the speculation and predictions regarding Haniyeh’s successor. At first glance, this is a puzzling choice, as it is unclear how Sinwar will manage to lead and run the organization while he is hidden in a tunnel or another hideout in the Gaza Strip as he is being pursued and trying to save his life.
The leadership of Hamas have known tensions and rivalries for years, even during Khaled Mashaal’s tenure as head of the political bureau, and especially towards the end of his term.
The rivalry only intensified after Sinwar’s release in 2011 as part of the Shalit deal, particularly with the establishment of his status as Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip and his official election in 2017. The rivalry was fundamentally between the external leadership, even when Ismail Haniyeh from the Shati refugee camp in Gaza headed it, and the organization’s leadership in Gaza.
Gaza is seen as the organization’s center of gravity, and its leadership, certainly when it comes to Yahya Sinwar, considered itself more significant and important in the decision-making processes, especially regarding the events in the Gaza Strip.
Tensions have only worsened since October 7 and the beginning of hostage negotiations. The Gaza leadership, led by Sinwar, set the tone and made the decisions, not the external leadership. Sinwar, who focuses on Egypt as the main mediator, has not hidden his disdain for Haniyeh, who, in turn, placed his hopes on Qatar.
Therefore, Egypt has a significantly greater influence on the person who, until yesterday, was just the organization’s leader in Gaza, while Qatar’s influence on him is much smaller.
West Bank-Gaza Hamas leadership tensions
The internal rivalry in Hamas also manifests in the relations between the leadership in the West Bank and the leadership in Gaza.
The struggle between the approaches is also evident regarding the organization’s cooperation with Iran, which Haniyeh encouraged. Conversely, Sinwar merely viewed it pragmatically and instrumentally (similar to Iran’s attitude towards Hamas).
Khaled Mashaal became a persona non grata for Iran and Syria due to what they perceived as his ultimate betrayal during the Syrian civil war. This also led to his expulsion from the country in 2012. Therefore, at this time, Mashaal could not again lead the political bureau.
Nevertheless, Sinwar’s appointment to the position surprised many. He indeed intended to run in the 2025 elections for the head of the political bureau, but his election during the war, while he is pursued and hidden, raises many questions.
Under such conditions, it is difficult to assess how he will manage to function as the organization’s leader, represent it externally, and fulfill the required tasks.
There is a possibility that Sinwar’s selection was intended to advance the hostage deal negotiations and lead to ending the war in Gaza.
It is possible that the Egyptians, the only ones in contact with Sinwar, helped promote the move through dialogue with the Hamas leadership.
If Ismail Haniyeh indeed represented a tougher stance in the deal negotiations compared to Sinwar’s more pragmatic line, an obstacle has been removed.
end
White House Believes Iran Backing Down From Israel Strike After Diplomatic ‘Blitz’
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 11:05 AM
The Washington Post has said that intensive international diplomatic efforts to get Iran to step back from launching a new attack on Israel may be having an effect.
The report cited a “blitz” of diplomatic interventions with both Tehran and Tel Aviv. “It’s urgent that everyone in the region take stock of the situation, understand the risk of miscalculation, and make decisions that will calm tensions, not exacerbate them,” US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said following a meeting with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong and Defense Minister Richard Marles.
“We’ve been engaged in intense diplomacy with allies and partners, communicating that message directly to Iran. We’ve communicated that message directly to Israel,” he described.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin coming out of the same meeting Tuesday described that the Pentagon is still on alert, with the possibility still high for an Iranian attack, and with American naval and aerial assets still on standby in the region.
“What I’ve been focused on is making sure that we’re doing everything we can to put measures in place to protect our troops and also make sure that we’re in a good position to aid in the defense of Israel, if called upon to do that,” Austin said.
But the White House’s messaging of late has been more than just a message of defending Israel “if called upon”; instead, President Biden has definitively promised to come to Israel’s military aid in the scenario of a major Iranian and Hezbollah attack.
And US administration officials believe this muscle-flexing on behalf of Israel has caused Tehran leaders to “think twice”:
Washington’s willingness to flex its military muscles in the region may also be causing Iran to think twice, according to one senior Biden administration official, who told the Post that Iran “understands clearly that the United States is unwavering in its defense of our interests, our partners and our people.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has laid out several US military steps in recent days to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies, and to safeguard US troops, including the deployments of additional fighter jets. He also said the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier will replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt in the region “later this month.”
Additionally, it has been newly revealed that a dozen F/A-18 fighter jets and an E-2D Hawkeye surveillance aircraft from the USS Theodore Roosevelt have moved from Gulf waters more inward in the Middle East region upon the start of this week.
The past days have also seen sporadic renewed attacks on US bases in Iraq. Austin addressed this threat in his Tuesday remarks, saying “Make no mistake, the United States will not tolerate attacks on our personnel in the region.” He additionally asserted that “we remain ready to deploy on short notice to meet the evolving threats to our security, our partners or our interests.”
Russia too has joined in the efforts to prevent a regional war from exploding:
Russian President Vladimir Putin has asked Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a restrained response to Israel’s suspected killing of the leader of Hamas, advising against attacks on Israeli civilians, two senior Iranian sources told Reuters.
The message, according to the sources, was delivered on Monday by Sergei Shoigu, a senior ally of the Kremlin leader, in meetings with top Iranian officials as the Islamic Republic weighs its response to the assassination of Hamas terror group leader Ismail Haniyeh.
On Wednesday, in a fresh call with France’s Macron new Iranian President Pezeshkian has said that if Western countries are truly desirous of preventing war, they must force Israel to halt the “genocide” in Gaza and accept a ceasefire, state media reported.
ISRAEL/IRAN/HOUTHIS/MIDDLE EAST
This is a worthwhile commentary on what is coming next
(InternationalMan.com)
World War 3’s Decisive Battle
TUESDAY, AUG 06, 2024 – 06:25 PM
Authored by Nick Giambruno via InternationalMan.com,
As I’ve discussed recently, I believe proxy wars will determine who wins WW3 and gets to shape the new world order.
There are numerous ongoing proxy wars in World War 3.
However, the ones I believe will prove decisive will be in Taiwan, Ukraine, and the Middle East. The others are peripheral in comparison.
I think it’s clear the proxy wars in Ukraine and Taiwan are likely to end in favor of BRICS+.
That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order and preserve the US-led world order in the Middle East.
The Middle East is on the precipice of its largest war in generations.
The region is roughly divided into two different geopolitical groups.
The first is the US and its allies—Israel, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and others.
(Though Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE are members of BRICS+, their true allegiance is with the agenda of NATO & Friends).
The second group describes itself as the Axis of Resistance. It consists of Iran, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, Hezbollah in Lebanon, several Palestinian groups (including Hamas), and an assortment of militias in Iraq. Russia and China are standing behind the Axis of Resistance.
If there is a regional war in the Middle East, it will undoubtedly be between these two groups.
In the context of World War 3, the US and its allies represent NATO & Friends, and the Axis of Resistance represents BRICS+.
Here is a geopolitical map of the Middle East as I see it (click to enlarge).
Iran is the main sponsor of the Axis of Resistance, and it does not have nuclear weapons.
Unlike in Europe (Russia) or East Asia (China), there is no sophisticated nuclear power to deter NATO & Friends from more aggressive military action in the Middle East. Iran is, therefore, the weak link in the BRICS+ alliance to push for a multipolar world order.
That’s why I expect NATO & Friends will make their last stand to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order in the Middle East by trying to neutralize the Axis of Resistance.
Here is a brief overview of where things stand now in various areas of the Middle East. It will help us zoom out and put together the pieces to see the big picture.
Gaza
While Israel has caused widespread destruction in Gaza, they are nowhere close to their goal of totally destroying Hamas.
Even the US government acknowledges that Israeli military action will be unable to totally destroy Hamas. The Israeli military has also come to reluctantly admit that Hamas cannot be defeated by military force alone.
That’s because Hamas is waging a classic guerrilla warfare campaign against the far superior Israeli military on the ground in Gaza.
Guerrilla warfare is a form of irregular warfare that relies on unconventional tactics such as hit-and-run attacks, sabotage, and ambushes to harass and exhaust a much stronger, better-equipped enemy force.
The main objective is not to achieve a decisive victory through conventional means but rather to undermine the enemy’s morale and force them to expend resources in a war of attrition.
The emphasis on survival and persistence allows guerrilla fighters to maintain their presence in the conflict, inspire more people to join their cause, and create a sense of frustration and demoralization among the enemy troops.
This strategy has been employed successfully by various groups throughout history—the Taliban, the Viet Cong, etc.—demonstrating the effectiveness of guerrilla warfare to challenge much more powerful adversaries.
Simply put, in a guerrilla war, to survive is to win.
That’s because merely surviving allows guerrillas to continue exhausting their enemies. By surviving, they undermine attempts to destroy their movement and demonstrate their resilience and determination to continue fighting.
Moreover, their enemy’s inability to completely eliminate the guerrilla fighters can lead to the perception that they are losing the war, as they cannot achieve a decisive victory despite their superior resources and technology.
Here’s the bottom line.
Israel has been trapped in a no-win situation with two unappealing choices:
- Negotiate a ceasefire and an exchange of prisoners on unfavorable terms. The region will likely view it as a victory for the Axis of Resistance because Hamas will have forced the much stronger Israel to accept some of its terms.
- Engage in a fruitless protracted guerrilla war that drains its military, economy, and diplomatic capital. Such a scenario will also risk sparking a much larger full-scale regional war against the Axis of Resistance—with Russia and China standing behind them—that Israel, the US, and its allies aren’t guaranteed to win.
No matter how the Gaza war ultimately ends, the events of October 7 and afterward have likely shattered the aura of invincibility of the Israeli military. In other words, Israel has lost its deterrence, and it will not easily or quickly regain it.
In short, Israel’s regional position is deteriorating. That weakens the geopolitical position of NATO & Friends in the Middle East.
Syria
Since 2011, NATO & Friends have tried to overthrow Syrian President Bashar Al Assad and replace him with someone more pliable. However, that effort failed thanks to the intervention of Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
Syria will remain a crucial member of the Axis of Resistance and sympathetic to BRICS+.
Iraq
After the US overthrew Saddam Hussein in 2003, they hoped to mold Iraq in the shape of Jordan, one of its most reliable allies in the Middle East.
Though, it didn’t work out the way they had hoped.
Instead, the removal of Sunni Saddam empowered Iraq’s Shia majority, which is much more sympathetic to Iran than the US agenda for the region.
Numerous powerful Iraqi militia groups are members of the Axis of Resistance. The Iraqi central government cannot challenge them and is more or less on the same geopolitical page anyway.
However, there are still a couple of thousand US soldiers in Iraq, which the Iraqi central government recently asked Washington to withdraw. Negotiations are ongoing.
Regardless of whether the relatively small number of US troops stays or leaves, Iraq’s geopolitical orientation has tilted towards the Axis of Resistance and BRICS+.
Yemen
Yemen has sometimes been called “the Afghanistan of the Middle East” because it is an impoverished tribal society that is well-armed, situated on mountainous terrain, and generally inhospitable to foreign invaders.
The Houthis, an Iran-backed group that controls most of Yemen, frustrated a military coalition of Saudi Arabia and its allies. Despite waging war since 2015, the Saudis have not been able to defeat the Houthis.
However, most people are unaware of this war or its details. It’s remarkable that the Saudis, who are among the wealthiest in the Middle East and backed by the military and political support of the US, could not defeat the Middle East’s most impoverished people in Yemen.
The Houthis—and thus the Axis of Resistance—remain firmly in control of most of Yemen.
Amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza, the Houthis have demonstrated an ability to disrupt global shipping in the Red Sea—some of the most important sea lanes in the world. They have targeted ships associated with the US and Israel with missiles and drones and have also hit Israeli cities.
However, there is little appetite for anyone to take on the Houthis. The Saudis’ poor performance against them is still fresh in everyone’s minds.
Here’s the bottom line with Yemen.
The Houthis will likely remain in power and sympathetic to the BRICS+ agenda for a multipolar world order.
Iran
Unlike most other nation states in the Middle East, Iran (known as Persia before 1935) is not an artificial construct. By race, religion, and social history, it is a nation. European bureaucrats didn’t dream up Iran by drawing zigzags on a map. The map reflects the geographic reality of a country with natural, fortress-like mountain borders. In the east, the Roman Empire generally ended where the Persian Empire began.
Iran leads the Axis of Resistance in the Middle East and is the main power pushing for the BRICS+ goal of a multipolar order in the region.
The US and its allies have not been successful in limiting Iran’s power. They’ve tried pretty much everything short of a full-scale invasion.
Instead, the opposite happened: Iran’s influence grew.
Iran’s economy has strengthened thanks to expanding relations with China, and its military has strengthened thanks to expanding ties with Russia and a well-developed domestic military-industrial complex.
In short, NATO & Friends have few cards to play against Iran.
If the US really wants to decapitate the BRICS+ agenda in the Middle East, it would need to overthrow the Iranian government. That would require waging a full-scale regional war against all members of the Axis of Resistance and launching a ground invasion of Iran.
Remember, during the Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)—back when Saddam was a “good guy”—he threw over 500,000 Iraqi soldiers at the Iranian meat grinder, had the backing of the US AND the Soviet Union, and used chemical weapons on a scale not seen since WW1… and he barely made a dent in Iran.
The reality is that if the US is serious about invading Iran, it would likely require total mobilization and bringing back the draft. That is not likely to happen, but even if it did, it would not guarantee US victory.
If Iran thought the US was going to invade, it could also develop nuclear weapons as a deterrent within a matter of weeks or less. It might also already have a couple of secretly obtained nukes.
Given those unfavorable prospects, NATO & Friends could decide to use nuclear weapons on Iran preemptively.
Iran is well aware that the US or Israel could use nuclear weapons against it. It has contingency plans for that outcome to ensure the survival of its government. Iran’s plans also likely include making a dash for developing its own nuclear arsenal to be able to respond in kind.
Further, it’s doubtful that Russia and China would just sit back and do nothing if NATO & Friends looked like they might nuke Iran. For example, Russia could decide to station nuclear weapons and Russian soldiers on Iranian soil as a deterrent.
In short, NATO & Friends using nukes on Iran could lead to an unpredictable series of events that could quickly spiral out of control, so I don’t view it as a likely outcome.
Here’s the bottom line.
NATO & Friends don’t have any attractive options when it comes to dealing with Iran.
Conclusion
NATO & Friends are not in a weak position in the Middle East. They have nuclear weapons, advanced militaries, and some of the largest regional armies—notably Egypt, Israel, and Turkey—at their disposal.
That being said, when you take a step back and put it all together, it is clear that the geopolitical momentum is with the Axis of Resistance, which is eroding the power and influence of NATO & Friends in the Middle East.
The situation is trending in favor of the Axis of Resistance and BRICS+. If those trends continue—and I think they will—sooner or later, NATO & Friends must make a fateful decision.
They can either cede the region to BRICS+, which would seal the creation of a multipolar world order, or launch a full-scale war with the Axis of Resistance as a last-ditch Hail Mary attempt to scuttle the emergence of a multipolar world order.
There is no guarantee that NATO & Friends would win such a war. I think it’s likely it would end in disaster for them. That’s probably a big reason it hasn’t happened yet, despite no shortage of hostile intentions.
However, if NATO & Friends feel the sun is about to set on the US-led unipolar world order, they may go for it anyway. That would require them to take a bad hand and double down in a desperate attempt to get even. They may do so if they have nothing to lose, but I doubt it will change the ultimate outcome.
The situation is fluid and volatile. It’s impossible to quantify the conflict precisely.
That being said, when you put everything together, I think there is a good chance that BRICS+ will prevail in the three key proxy wars of WW3—Ukraine, Taiwan, and the Middle East.
The main implication is that we’re likely to see the end of the unipolar world order and the emergence of a multipolar world order.
Many people will be unprepared for that change of historical significance. However, when you look at the Big Picture, that is where I think we’re headed.
Unfortunately, most people have no idea what really happens when the world order changes, let alone how to prepare…
The coming crisis will likely be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen since World War 2.
We’ll likely see entirely new political, social, and economic structures established to replace the crumbling ones from the post-WW2 era.
Countless millions throughout history were wiped out financially—or worse—during the previous world wars because they failed to see the correct Big Picture and take appropriate action.
Don’t be one of them.
But what if you get the Big Picture right?
The wealth-creating opportunities for those who correctly see what is happening and act upon it could be enormous.
That’s the difference between being on the right and wrong side of these changes of historical proportion.
It’s a rare fortune-building opportunity for those who see the investment implications of WW3 before others figure out what is really happening and how it’s likely to end.
That’s why I just released an urgent new report with all the details, including what you must do to prepare. It’s called The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. Click here to download the PDF now.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
RUSSIA/USA
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
outbreak of monkey pox in Asia. The virus outbreak is due to lack of immunity caused by the vaccines
(Philips/EpochTimes)
WHO Director Considers Declaring Public Health Emergency Over Mpox Virus Outbreak
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,
The World Health Organization’s director-general said the United Nations health body is considering declaring an emergency for mpox, also known as monkeypox, amid an outbreak in Africa.
“But more funding and support for a comprehensive response are needed,” WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus wrote on the social media platform X on Sunday.
“I am considering convening an International Health Regulations emergency committee to advise me on whether the outbreak of mpox should be declared a public health emergency of international concern.”
By Tuesday, it was unclear when the WHO would declare the emergency or issue any warnings about the virus.
A statement from Tedros published by the journal Science added that “this virus can and must be contained with intensified public health measures including surveillance, community engagement, treatment and targeted deployment of vaccines for those at higher risk of infection.”
“A further scaling up of the mpox response underway in affected countries is urgently needed amid the expanding outbreak,” his statement said, calling for “more funding for a comprehensive response” that factors in diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines.
A public health emergency of international concern is the strongest designation for an outbreak. Notably, such a declaration was made for COVID-19 during the early onset of the pandemic in 2020.
Later, WHO made the designation for an mpox outbreak that lasted from 2022 to 2023, while President Joe Biden’s administration declared an emergency over the virus. During that outbreak, which impacted Europe and the United States, officials say mpox primarily spread via sexual contact between men.
The latest announcement was made as the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a report last week that mpox has now been detected in 10 African countries this year, including Congo, which has more than 96 percent of all cases and deaths.
Officials said nearly 70 percent of cases in Congo are affecting children younger than 15, who also accounted for 85 percent of deaths.
There have been an estimated 14,250 cases so far this year, nearly as many as all of last year, the Africa CDC said. Compared to the first seven months of 2023, the Africa CDC said cases are up 160 percent and deaths are up 19 percent, to 456.
Burundi and Rwanda both reported the virus for the first time this week, while new outbreaks were recently reported in the Central African Republic and Kenya.
“We are very concerned about the cases of monkeypox, which is ravaging (the capital region),” the Central African Republic’s public health minister, Pierre Somse, said on Monday.
Two cases were confirmed in Uganda, according to an Aug. 4 notice published by the International Society for Infectious Diseases, citing the country’s health ministry.
“Both individuals presented with symptoms such as skin rash, swollen lymph nodes, and general malaise, which are consistent with mpox,” the Ugandan Health Ministry stated.
Meanwhile, Kenya’s Health Ministry recently said it found mpox in a passenger traveling from Uganda to Rwanda at a border crossing in southern Kenya. In a statement, the ministry said that a single mpox case was enough to warrant an outbreak declaration.
Over the weekend, health officials in South Africa announced the country now has 22 cases of mpox, including three deaths.
“Contact tracing and monitoring activities are ongoing in the affected communities in both provinces, and the Department urges all the identified contacts to cooperate with health officials during contact tracing for screening and possible diagnosis to prevent further transmission of this preventable and treatable disease,” the South Africa Health Department said in a statement, published on Aug. 4.
Signs and symptoms of mpox, according to the U.S. CDC website, include a rash that might be located on the feet, hands, face, chest, and mouth, or near the genitals. The rash can form scabs and initially look like blisters or pimples, which may be itchy or painful.
Other symptoms include fever, swollen lymph nodes, chills, aches, exhaustion, and respiratory symptoms such as a cough, nasal congestion, or sore throat, according to the health agency.
WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY
END
WORLD HEALTH ISSUES
special thanks to Robert H for sending this data to us:
UK’s John O’Looney Says His Funeral Home Is Full And He Is Having To Turn People Away – The Covid Death Wave Is Swelling…As We Have Warned
https://rense.com/general97/olooney.php
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, July 29-August 5, 2024
Athletes: US (3), UK, Romania, Cameroon, Russia, India, Kazakhstan; musicians: US (3), UK, Holland, Switzerland, Spain (2), S. Africa, Malaysia; “vaxxidents”: US (2), Italy (4), NZ (2); & more
| MARK CRISPIN MILLERAUG 7 |
Note: Click on the countries links for this week’s compilations of those who “died suddenly” (the individual Substacks are too long to email).
United States
Canada
United Kingdom and Ireland
Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Belgium, Holland, Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Romania, Montenegro and Spain
Italy
Ghana, Togo, Nigeria, Cameroon, Zimbabwe, South Africa and Russia
India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, China, Malaysia, Australia and New Zealand
India:
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Dutch Scientists Issue Warning about Bill Gates’ ‘Self-Amplifying mRNA’ VaccinesA group of leading Dutch scientists and virologists has just made a disturbing discovery about the new Bill Gates-funded “self-amplifying mRNA” (SAM) vaccines.READ MORE |
| Harris Running Mate Tim Walz to Push for Americans to Pay ‘Carbon Tax’ to Comply with ‘Net Zero’Kamala Harris has just struck fear into the hearts of many freedom-loving Americans by announcing that her 2024 running mate is globalist climate-radical Gov. Tim Walz.READ MORE |
| Pelosi Refuses to Confirm That ‘Everything Is Ok’ Between Her & Biden: ‘Ask Him’Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) has refused to confirm whether her relationship with Democrat President Joe Biden is still “ok.”READ MORE |
| ‘Fit & Healthy’ 32-Year-Old Dies Suddenly of Cardiac Arrest after Covid ShotA 32-year-old woman, who was described as “fit and healthy,” has tragically died suddenly after receiving a Covid mRNA shot.READ MORE |
| Kamala Harris: ‘We Are Very Proud of Bidenomics’As the United States teeters on the edge of catastrophic economic collapse, attention is returning to the “Bidenomics” policies of Democrat President Joe Biden and VP Kamala Harris.READ MORE |
| Police Foil Another Assassination Plot against Trump, Suspected ArrestedA Texas woman has been arrested for threatening to assassinate President Donald Trump, police have revealed.READ MORE |
| Devastating Report Exposes Kamala Harris’ Canadian UpbringingA devastating report has exposed the reality of Kamala Harris’s upbringing that Democrats are trying to keep hidden as they rebrand the vice president ahead of the critical November election.READ MORE |
| Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch Warns Too Many Federal Laws ‘Impair’ Americans’ FreedomsSupreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch has warned of the threat to public freedom from introducing too many federal laws.READ MORE |
| IBA Confirms 2 ‘Female’ Olympic Boxers Are NOT Women: ‘These Boxers Are Male’The International Boxing Association (IBA) has weighed in on the controversy surrounding two male boxers who are competing in female events at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games.READ MORE |
| Mark Zuckerberg Called Trump to Personally Apologize for Facebook’s Censorship of Assassination Attempt PhotoMeta CEO Mark Zuckerberg called President Donald Trump to personally apologize after Facebook censored the iconic fist-pumping post-assassination attempt photo on the social media platform.READ MORE |
| Biden’s Top ‘Bidenomics’ Advisor Joins Harris’s Team as Markets Melt DownDemocrat President Joe Biden’s top economic advisor is leaving the lame-duck White House team to join Kamala Harris’s presidential election campaign.READ MORE |
| Major Wall St Firms Hit with Outages amid Market CrashSeveral major Wall Street investment firms were hit with damaging outages amid a widespread “Black Monday” market crash.READ MORE |
| California Regulators Propose Taking Control of Oil Refineries to Tackle Price Hikes amid Green Agenda PushRegulators are proposing plans for the California government to take control of oil refineries to manage energy price hikes as the state pushes to advance green agenda policies.READ MORE |
| The latest reports from Slay News |
EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
| Germany Vows to Vaccinate Public with Over One Billion mRNA Doses a YearThe German government has confirmed plans to begin vaccinating members of the general public with over one billion doses of Covid mRNA shots every year.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Consequences of Vaccine Refusal: Parents Could Face ImprisonmentMedical experts are warning parents and guardians about the dangers of not vaccinating their children against infectious diseases.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| AOC, Jamal Bowman, Ilhan Omar Hit with Class Action Lawsuit by Columbia StudentsAccusing far-left lawmakers of igniting the unrest at Columbia University this spring with their anti-Israel rhetoric, five Columbia students are suing these lawmakers for endorsing anti-Semitic encampments at the college.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Senator Lindsey Graham: ‘Trump Should Stop Discussing Kamala Harris’ Race’Senator Lindsey Graham stated on this week’s “Fox News Sunday” broadcast that former President Trump should refrain from discussing Vice President Harris’ race.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Justice Neil Gorsuch: ‘Your Right as an American Is to Have a Ferociously Independent Judge — and a Fair Hearing Under the Law and the Constitution’Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch has addressed calls from the Biden administration to reform the high court, urging to “be careful” with such proposals and emphasizing the importance of maintaining judicial independence.READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
EU/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
this is going to get interesting!
EU NatGas Soars As 1,000-Soldier Ukraine Raid Into Russia Captures Key Gas Facility
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 11:55 AM
The Kremlin has announced that its forces thwarted a major ground assault from Ukraine forces into Russia’s southwestern Kursk region. President Vladimir Putin called it a “large-scale provocation” which is being defended against for a second day. While the Ukrainian side has remained silent, that fighting in the area of the incursion has raged for two days straight does indeed suggest an attack which is large in scope.
Putin further described the “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses, ambulances with different types of weapons” amid the assault, and called an emergency meeting of his top defense and security officials. The military is further sending assistance to the Kursk region, which lies over 300 miles from Moscow.
Russian state media has detailed that the cross-border assault began at 5:30am Tuesday morning and involved in initial wave of up to 1,000 militants. Kremlin sources further say that the Ukrainian side suffered at least 315 casualties, including at least 100 killed and 215 wounded.
The chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, in a briefing given to Putin said the goal of the Ukrainian operation was to take over the Sudzhinsky district of Kursk Region.
There are meanwhile breaking reports the Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured the Sudzha gas measurement station, which is in the center of Sudzhinsky district, according to source RybarEU. European NatGas prices jumped on the news (to their highest since Dec 2023)…
Throughout the war there have been at least two other significant cross-border ground raids involving Ukrainian paramilitaries, but if the numbers are confirmed, this one is by far the largest.
…And clearly the operation had a specifically geopolitical goal related to Russia’s hold over European gas (and as evidenced by the following chart, European gas prices are surging relative to US gas)…
In this case, the incursion appears to have been launched utilizing Ukrainian army regular forces and heavy equipment, with the possibility that West-supplied weapons systems were used.
“Ukraine also lost 54 armored vehicles, including seven tanks,” Gen. Gerasimov’s briefing noted.
There does appear to be significant damage and some civilian casualties in the Kursk Region as a result, as Associated Press reports:
The head of the region urged residents to donate blood due to the intense fighting. “In the last 24 hours, our region has been heroically resisting attacks” by Ukrainian fighters, acting Gov. Alexei Smirnov said on Telegram, adding that all emergency services were on high alert.
The same sources is reporting that the Ukrainian shelling has killed at least two people — a paramedic and an ambulance driver — and wounded 24, based on a Russian foreign ministry briefing.
Ukraine attack on Russia’s #Kursk Region Fifteen people are taking refuge in the Svyato-Nikolaevsky Belogorsky Monastery in the Gornal district of Sudzha. The building is under constant shelling.
·
5,367 Views
https://twitter.com/runews/status/182120704340907219
Thousands of Russians have reportedly fled the assault, and the region is still in chaos and under constant shelling.
Ukraine forces have reportedly seized the gas measuring station “Sudzha” on the western outskirts of the city of the same name. Gas is pumped there for transit to Europe.
developing…
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
Venezuela
BANGLADESH
The Post-Coup Political Violence In Bangladesh Bodes Ill For Its Future Direction
TUESDAY, AUG 06, 2024 – 10:10 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
The resignation of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on Monday and her government’s replacement with a military-led interim administration was followed by a spree of political violence. The parliament was taken over, Hasina’s palace was stormed, some of the former ruling party’s offices and the homes of its members were looted, and minority Hindus were attacked. Despite being regrettable, retributive political violence and the targeting of minorities are predictable in “revolutionary” situations.
What few could have foreseen though was that symbols of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, who’s known as “Bangabandhu” and is revered as the Father of the Nation, were also attacked. This included vandalism against his statues and murals as well as the burning of his memorial museum in the capital, which used to be his home and from where he declared Bangladesh’s independence. Even though he was Hasina’s father, he’s not guilty of the crimes that the so-called “peaceful pro-democracy protesters” accuse her of.
Some hated him at the time for his secularism as well as his non-Western alignment, thus explaining his assassination in 1975 and the military coup that followed, but much of that anger has passed since most of the population wasn’t even born by then and therefore has no personal memory of him. Regardless of whatever any Bangladeshi’s views might be about his policies, Bangabandhu is still the Father of the Nation, and targeting his symbols during the latest unrest bodes ill for Bangladesh’s future direction.
Only religious and political extremists would attack his symbols, which discredits the participants’ claims that they’re “peaceful pro-democracy protesters” and lends credence to Hasina’s that they’re actually radical anti-state forces. What happened bears all the hallmarks of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and their allies. They’ve been accused of cavorting with religious extremists and being political radicals, the claims of which aren’t unfounded.
The party’s founder Ziaur Rahman implemented Islamist policies upon coming to power two years after Bangabandhu’s assassination and then pivoted towards the West (including its then-Arab and -Chinese partners at the time). The rivalry between the BNP and Bangabandhu’s Awami League (AL) has remained a constant since then, as has the threat posed by the legally contentious Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) movement, which is comprised of Pakistani loyalists who later allied with the BNP due to its Islamist policies.
Nevertheless, attacking Bangabandhu’s symbols in such a high-profile way at this crucial moment in national history sends the message that political violence will continue, with none of the AL’s supporters being safe. Unless the military can restore order, and it’s too early to tell even though everything appears to be moving in that direction, then the BNP-JEI might go on a killing spree against the AL. A huge exodus to India could then follow, which risks destabilizing already demographically tense border regions.
Even if that dark scenario doesn’t materialize, it’s clear that the BNP’s JEI foot soldiers won’t be pleased until their country erases the AL’s legacy of secularism and alignment with India. After all, that’s precisely what Bangabandhu represents, so targeting his symbols conveys their hatred of those policies and implies that some level of unrest might continue so long as they remain in force. Bangladesh has the sovereign right to promulgate whatever policies it wants, but this mustn’t be done under pressure.
It’s too early to predict whether the BNP-JEI will get all of what it wants, but the parliament in which the BNP didn’t participate due to boycotting January’s elections was just dissolved and its jailed leader was released right after, so it’s likely poised to play a role in the interim administration before new elections. In that event, the BNP and its JEI foot soldiers would stand a much greater chance of pressuring the authorities into distancing Bangladesh from India in some way, which could worsen regional tensions.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0920 DOWN 0.0005
USA/ YEN 147.12 UP 2.884 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES REIGNITES//
GBP/USA 1.2731 UP 0.0046
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3743 DOWN .0045 (CDN DOLLAR UP 45 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.55 PTS OR 0.09%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 230.52 PTS OR 1.38%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.29%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 230.52 PTS OR 1.38 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.55 PTS OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.29%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 414.16 PTS OR 1.19%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2398.40
silver:$27.15
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.95 UP 20 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.905% UP 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.890% UP 4 AND 0/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.118 UP 6 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.703 UP 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2725 UP 7 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0932 UP 0.0009 OR 9 basis points
USA/Japan: 147.60 UP 2.855 OR YEN IS DOWN 286 BASIS PTS
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.990 UP 11 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0063 OR 63 BASIS pts to 1.3725
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1765 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1822)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.50 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.890…
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.953% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.228 UP 5 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.020 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2401.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 27.08
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 140.59 PTS OR 1.75%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 260.83 PTS OR 1.50%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 135.97 PTS OR 1.91 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 208.50 OR 2.01%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 724.51 PTS OR 2.33% PTS
WTI Oil price 75/15 12EST/
Brent Oil: 78.53 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 85.67 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 1/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2725 UP 11 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.990 UP 11 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.201 UP 8 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0925 DOWN 0.0001 OR 1 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2694 UP 0.0009 OR 9 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.950 UP 10 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.890
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146,83 UP 2.097 YEN DOWN 210 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3744 DOWN 0.0064//CDN dollar UP 64 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 75.73
Brent OIL: 78.43
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 3.959
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.259%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 2 PTS AT 4.008
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.186 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.96 UP 20 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.48 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 85.75 DOWN 0 AND 9/100 roubles
GOLD 2,390.20 3:30 PM
SILVER: 26.78 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 234.15 PTS OR 0.60%
NASDAQ DOWN 210.55 PTS OR 1.16 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 27.59 DOWN 12 PTS OR 0.43%
GLD: $220.54 DOWN 0.16 OR 0.07%
SLV/ $24.33 DOWN 0.31 OR 1.26%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks Puke Back Overnight Dovish BoJ Gains; Bond Yields & Black Gold Rise
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM
For a few brief hours overnight, everything was awesome again after the BoJ folded like a broken lawnchair, dovishly backing away from any rate-hikes until market stability resumed.
USDJPY spiked, equity futures spiked higher, and da bullz jumped in with both hands and feet. All that lasted until the US cash equity market opened and the selling began… was escalated by an ugly 10Y auction, and increasing tensions in Ukraine/Russia and the MidEast.
By the close, all the majors were at the lows of the day with Small Caps and Nasdaq the biggest losers (swinging from +2% to -1%)…
…with US equities and USDJPY completely decoupling…
Source: Bloomberg
Nasdaq/Russell 2000 remains back in its recent range with the rebound stalling…
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500 tested up to its 100DMA this morning then plunged back lower…
The Dow actually tested above its 50DMA at the open today, but was them pummeled back below its 100DMA…
Mag7 and ‘Most Shorted’ stocks were both sold out of the gate after gapping higher at the open.
Goldman’s trading desk noted that volumes were muted (tracking -20% vs the trailing 5%) and S&P top of book (liquidity) continues to be extremely poor, sitting around to $4mm level -63% vs the 20dma.
Overall floor is flat, with HFs and LOs both skewing better for sale.
- LOs better to buy across Tech, Hcare, and Macro Products vs selling Consumer Discretionary and Fins.
- HFs are better sellers across Hcare, Fins, and Industrial, with short ratios extremely elevated within macro products. HFs buying tech and Comms Svcs.
VIX pushed back higher once again, testing up towards 30…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were higher across the board today with the long-end unperforming (30Y +8bps, 2Y +3bps), not helped by a very ugly tail at the 10Y auction. Since payrolls, yield have basically roundtripped to unchanged (aside from the 2Y)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2Y yield was stuck at 4.00% once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations dropped for 2025 but were flat for 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil pries rallied today with WTI testing up toward $76, well off the six-month lows set earlier in the week…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar managed modest gains today thanks to the JPY weakness but there was no follow-through…
Source: Bloomberg
The small gain for the dollar meant a small loss for gold on the day (with the precious metal unable to hold above $2400)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin tested up to around $58,000 overnight but selling pressure hit during the US session…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the carnage in commodities continues to send warning messages…
Source: Bloomberg
…with spot commodity prices one-percent away from three year lows, it’s not a message of a ‘soft landing’.
AFTERNOON TRADING/
Stocks Plunge After Ugly 10Y Auction Tails Bigly
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 01:17 PM
Amid all the chaos in markets over the past few days, it is perhaps no surprise that ‘demand’ for bonds would be somewhat weaker. However, today’s 10Y auction was very ugly.
The sale stopped at 3.96%, tailing by a little more than 3 bps…
…as bid/cover of 2.32 was the lowest since December of 2022.
In fairness, indirects took down 66.2%, a fairly standard ratio, so there wasn’t a total buyer’s strike from the investor class. With directs taking a somewhat below-average 16%, this left dealers with a higher-than-usual 17.9%.
The 10Y yield broke above its pre-payrolls levels…
…and the surge in yields sent stocks lower, erasing most (or all for The Dow and Small Caps) of the overnight dovish-BoJ gains…
Needless to say, as Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise noted, the apparent revulsion for paper below 4% is not bullish, and raises the question of whether bond operators will be happy digesting tomorrow’s $25 billion 30-year sale.
Not helping matters were comments from JPMorgan Chairman and CEO Jamie Dimon, who told CNBC that he was “skeptical that inflation will get back to 2%,” adding that a 50bps cut by The Fed “doesn’t matter as much as people think.”
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
CREDIT CARD DEBT post biggest drop as this signals that the consumer is tapped
out.
(zerohedge0
On Verge Of Credit Shock: Credit Card Debt Posts Biggest Drop Since Covid Crash As Rates Hit Record High
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 03:36 PM
On a day when an early attempt by the BOJ to kickstart the global carry trade by capitulating on Japan’s recent mistimed foray into rate hikes, has crashed and burned with stocks tumbling, amid renewed concerns that the US economy is slowing (at least until next week’s “surprising” CPI beat), moments ago the Fed poured gasoline on the rising flames when it reported June consumer credit data that was atrocious, and confirmed our worst fears: the consumer has hit a brick wall.
According to the Federal Reserve’s monthly consumer credit report, in June total consumer credit rose just $8.9 billion, below the median estimate of $10 billion, and a material drop from the upward revised May print of $13.9 billion.
But while the total number was not shocking, if confirming the recent declining trend which always signals economic contraction (since without credit, US consumers simply can’t spend), it was the composition that was a big surprise.
On one hand, non-revolving credit – which consists of student and auto loans – rose by $10.6 billion, which was the biggest monthly increase since last June.
However, a closer look here reveals that the entire increase here was due entirely to student loans, which are once again being repaid after the Biden repayment moratorium ended in late 2023. Meanwhile, car loans which are critical to keep the US automotive industry in gear, has flatlined. As shown in the chart below, in Q2, student loans increased by $10.7 billion, the biggest quarterly increase since Q3 2023, while car loans actually declined by $9.0 billion, the biggest quarterly decline since Q3 2023.
But while non-revolving credit saw a sizable increase, if entirely due to student loans finally catching up to where they should have been 3 years ago, it was revolving credit (i.e., credit card debt) that was the real shocked, because in June, revolving credit unexpectedly tumbled by a whopping $1.7 billion, the biggest drop since the covid collapse…
… and more ominously, every time there is a sizable drop in this category, some economic calamity either follows or has already started.
To get a sense just how rare it is to get a negative credit card debt monthly change, consider that in the six years prior to the covid crash, the US had recorded just 5 months of negative prints, and all tended to precede major drawdowns in the economy. We expect no less this time.
Of course with the Fed refusing to cut rates – for good reason – the brutal slowdown in new credit card debt is hardly a surprise because in Q2 the average rate interest-bearing credit card accounts just hit a new record high of 22.76%, which is a vivid reminder that while banks are happy to hike credit card rates, they rarely if ever cut them.
Yet with consumers ever more strapped for actual cash and equity, as the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed from over 5% to 3.4% – the lowest since 2022 – in just a few months…
… there is only so much more credit card maxing out that can take place before reality finally sets in, as can be seen in the next and perhaps most striking chart yet: total credit card debt is at an all-time high while the personal savings rate is record low!
Then again, with an election on the horizon – one which ensures that any credit-card fueled spending must be encouraged – don’t be surprised if the White House directly orders banks to just ignore soaring delinquency and charge-off rates…
… only for the credit shock hammer to fall on the first day of Trump’s new presidency.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
good indicator of a plunging economy
(zerohedge)
Airbnb Shares Plunge On Slowing US Demand As Consumer Downturn Worsens
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 09:05 AM
Shares of Airbnb plummeted in premarket trading in New York after the company reported disappointing second-quarter earnings, falling short of Wall Street’s expectations, and issued a warning about slowing demand from US vacationers. This development comes amid rising recession risks in the US, with the consumer downturn worsening for the working poor and middle class due to elevated inflation and high interest rates.
Airbnb warned that it is “seeing shorter booking lead times globally and some signs of slowing demand from US guests.”
Bookings increased 8.7% in the second quarter to 125.1 million, missing analysts’ estimates of 126.33 million. Airbnb expects “sequential moderation” of booking growth in the third quarter.
In a consumer downturn, vacation spending is some of the first discretionary spending households cut to preserve cash. The problem is, as we’ve already cited numerous Goldman notes, explaining low/mid-income consumers are under severe financial stress. Airbnb’s earnings and dismal outlook are ominous signs that the consumer slowdown will likely worsen through the end of the year.
Here’s a snapshot of second-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg):
- Revenue $2.75 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $2.74 billion
- Gross booking value $21.2 billion, +11% y/y, estimate $21.23 billion
- Adjusted Ebitda $894 million, +9.2% y/y, estimate $862.3 million
- Adjusted Ebitda margin 33%, estimate 31.4%
- EPS 86c vs. 98c y/y
- Nights and experiences booked 125.1 million, +8.7% y/y, estimate 126.33 million
- Gross booking value per nights and experiences booked $169.53, +2.1% y/y, estimate $167.96
- Free cash flow $1.04 billion, +16% y/y, estimate $788 million
Third-quarter estimates reveal “sequential moderation” in booking growth, an indication of consumers pulling back:
- Sees revenue $3.67 billion to $3.73 billion, estimate $3.84 billion (Bloomberg Consensus)
- Sees ADR up modestly Y/Y
- Sees Adj Ebitda similar to 3Q23 on a nominal basisSees Adj Ebitda margin down relative to 3Q23
Airbnb’s shares plunged 15% in premarket trading early Wednesday. If the intraday declines exceed 16%, shares would record the largest-ever intraday decline.
RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Brad Erickson commented on Airbnb’s outlook that it “will likely only further stoke the soft consumer thesis.”
Here’s what other Wall Street analysts are saying about the earnings report (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Morgan Stanley (underweight)
- Airbnb’s 3Q guidance for room night deceleration and higher marketing spend are important, analyst Brian Nowak says
- Nowak adds that it speaks “to the choppiness and slowing in overall macro travel demand” as well as the rising cost to forward the company’s growth
- While Airbnb is a well-run company, Nowak says it is continuing to look similar to Booking Holdings, in terms of slowing room night growth, higher marketing spend and investment needed to grow
- PT cut to $115 from $130
Barclays (underweight)
- Consensus estimates are likely coming down due to the softer outlook and higher level of marketing in 2H, analyst Trevor Young writes
- “Normalization in travel demand, some relative val. premium coming out informed our UW, and that seems to be playing out”
- PT cut to $100 from $110
Baird (neutral)
- Analyst Colin Sebastian continues to view Airbnb as one of the best-managed and most compelling online marketplaces, but headwinds from current macro conditions challenge visibility
- That, along with possible margin contraction on incremental marketing investments, leads Sebastian to anticipate “choppy trading” until the short-term market stabilizes
- PT cut to $120 from $140
Evercore ISI (in line)
- Both revenue and Ebitda guidance for 3Q were softer than expected due to factors including shorter booking lead times globally as well as signs of slowing demand in the US, analyst Mark Mahaney says
- PT cut to $125 from $140
Bloomberg Intelligence
- “Airbnb’s guidance for a further deceleration in room-night growth to around mid-single digits in 3Q, after missing 2Q consensus, suggests tapering demand with average daily rates unlikely to be a tailwind for the top line in 2H,” analyst Mandeep Singh writes
Meanwhile, just last week, travel website Booking Holdings reported worse-than-expected guidance, pointing out a “mild moderation” across the European travel industry and consumers seeking lower-star hotels and shorter stays (mainly in the US).
Airbnb’s earnings report just confirms that the consumer downturn theme is gaining momentum.
It’s only a matter of time before Goldman tells clients to start shorting stocks with exposure to upper-income folks. The bank’s analysts have already told clients to short companies with low/mid-consumer exposure.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
NEWT GINGRICH
SWAMP NEWS
Israel Lobby Takes Out Second ‘Squad’ Member As Cori Bush Loses Primary
WEDNESDAY, AUG 07, 2024 – 08:25 AM
Tuesday’s Missouri primary delivered the latest demonstration of the Israel lobby’s formidable power, as progressive Democratic “Squad” Rep. Cori Bush lost a primary challenge to St. Louis County Prosecutor Wesley Bell, who benefitted from huge spending on his behalf by pro-Israel groups.
It’s the Israel lobby’s second ouster of a Squad member in just six weeks. In June, New York Rep. Jamaal Bowman lost the Democratic nomination to Westchester County executive George Latimer. In that race, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) poured an astonishing $14 million into the race — helping to make it the most expensive House primary contest ever.
Not far behind, the Bell-Bush contest ended as the fourth-priciest such race in US history. The AIPAC-affiliated but opaquely-named United Democracy Project spent almost $9 million to ensure that Bush was removed from Congress. Democratic Majority for Israel chipped in almost $500,000. It paid off: With more than 95% of the votes counted, Bell had won 51.2% of the vote to Bush’s 45.6%. The district is deep blue, so you can go ahead and pencil Bell in the seat now.
Bush and Bowman have been among the most vocal critics of the Israeli government’s response to the Oct. 7 Hamas invasion of southern Israel. The campaign in Gaza has killed an estimated 39,000 people, with most of them said to be civilians. About 90% of the population has been internally displaced at least once, with some moving 10 times, per the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Using satellite imagery, US university researchers estimate that, through April 21, 57% of all buildings in Gaza had been damaged or destroyed.
In a statement last week about its quest to cleanse Congress of Bush and other Israel-critical voices, AIPAC told Associated Press:
“AIPAC’s grassroots members are proud to support strong pro-Israel progressive Democrats like Wesley Bell. Cori Bush has been one of the most hostile critics of Israel since she came to Congress in 2021 and has actively worked to undermine mainstream Democratic support for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”
Of course, contrary to AIPAC’s suggestion, Wesley Bell being a progressive Democrat has nothing to do with the group’s support, which also flows to the most conservative Republicans. All that matters is alignment with the Israeli agenda, which is why AIPAC recently spent $300,000 on ads targeting Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie, who has voted against several pro-Israel bills in recent months. AIPAC wasn’t even trying to hand him a loss in his primary, which he won handily. Rather, it was AIPAC’s opening salvo against a potential Massie 2026 run for the Senate seat of retiring Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
On Tuesday evening, AIPAC took to social media to spike the football over Bush’s loss — and send a tacit warning to every other politician on either side of the aisle who might dare criticize Israel or vote against redistributing American wealth to it:
In another social media post boasting about Bush’s defeat, AIPAC repeated its frequent election-year claim that “being pro-Israel is good policy and good politics!” However, that claim is defied by an odd and unsettling aspect of the Israel lobby’s participation in these races: Advertising that pro-Israel groups inject into these campaigns almost never mentions Israel. If pro-Israel policies were so essential to winning votes, why would AIPAC and its allies avoid making them a campaign issue?
Bush did have non-Israel-related electoral vulnerabilities, such as voting against Biden’s $1 trillion infrastructure bill because it didn’t include progressive giveaways like free community college and universal family leave. She was also seen as a major hypocrite, promoting “defund the police” policies only to find herself the subject of a DOJ investigation into her campaign spending more than $130,000 on private security, with tens of thousands for “security services” paid to a man she ended up marrying. Bell’s campaign portrayed Bush as an unproductive representative principally focused on cultivating her Squad celebrity status.
…and we’d be remiss if we didn’t remind you she isn’t the sharpest tool in the drawer:
In the home stretch of her race, Bush — who won her seat in 2020 — could clearly see the handwriting on the wall. Contemplating her political future last weekend, Bush told NBC News, “One thing I don’t do is go away.” Maybe not, but her choice of where to go will be defined in no small part by groups promoting the interests of a tiny country 6,400 miles from St. Louis.
END
KING REPORT
| The King Report August 7, 2024 Issue 7300 | Independent View of the News |
| The Nikkei soared early on Tuesday because PM Fumio Kishida announced BoJ chief Ueda, Financial Minister Suzuki, and Financial Services Minister Mimura would meet. BBG: That three-way meeting is often used to send signals to the market… The Nikkei hit its peak (+12%, 34,911.80) at 21:02 ET. The Nikkei then had two large selling waves. An apparent manipulation during the final 55 minutes of trading added 1,233 points to the Nikkei, which closed +10.23% for the session. The yen/$ hit its nadir of 146.36 at 20:10 ET. At 9:44 ET, it was 144.05. ESUs hit a daily high of 5305.50 at 21:12 ET. After trading sideways, with one steep drop, ESUs broke down after the 3 ET European opening. ESUs hit a low of 5227.50 at 5:40 ET. The ensuing rally took ESUs to 5276.00 at 7:28 ET. Aggressive selling then forced ESUs to a daily low of 5221.75 at 9:45 ET. Then, someone manipulated ESUs to 5283.25 at 10:10 ET, 62.50 (1.19%) in just 25 minutes! After plodding up to 5286.75 at 10:25 ET, ESUs dropped to 5265.00 at 10:30 ET. Then, another vertical move took ESUs to a daily high of 5309.00 at 10:49 ET. ESUs then sank to 5267.00 at 11:29 ET on liquidation for the European close. Another near-vertical rally took EUS to a new high of 5313.50. After a 15-handle drop, ESUs spurted to a new high of 5321.50 at 12:53 ET. ESUs plodded to 5328.25 at 13:57 ET. After a retreat to 5313.25 at 14:07 ET, ESUs spurted to a new high of 5342.00 at 14:49 ET. Trader liquidation then began; ESUs sank to 5293.50 at 15:16 ET. You knew there would be a late manipulation! It pushed ESUs to 5320.00 at 15:25 ET. Alas, Tuesday’s rally was a manipulation and traders’ rally; there were few organic buyers. So, ESUs sank to 5259.50 at 16:00 ET. Possibly contributing to the last hour selling: US officials have ‘started seeing Iran moving missile launchers and conducting military drills’ – WSJ (But, this was posted on Aug. 5 at 12:27 ET.) Positive aspects of previous session Someone was determined to force ESUs higher! Fangs soared. Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered; USUs sank as much as 2 points. ESUs lost almost their entire pre-NYSE opening by 9:44 ET. ESUs and stocks declined sharply during the final hour of NYSE trading. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who manipulated ESUs and stocks on Tuesday? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5248.61 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5312.34; 5193.56 Secret Service whistleblower makes damning claim about the lead agent during Trump’s assassination attempt… was ‘inexperienced’ and ‘failed to implement appropriate security protocols.’ A separate whistleblower told (GOP Sen.) Hawley that the same lead site agent ‘personally made decisions that likely compromised the overall security of the event.’… ‘I’m also told by whistleblowers that on that day, she was not enforcing the normal security protocols.’… (Why no discipline?) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13714547/Whistleblowers-claim-senior-Secret-Service-agent-ground-Trump-shooting-inexperienced-incompetent.html Pakistani man with alleged ties to Iran arrested in political assassination plots including Trump Merchant is currently in federal custody after getting arrested while allegedly planning to leave the U.S. https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/pakistani-man-alleged-ties-iran-arrested-political-assassination-plot Trump says Biden might challenge Kamala at the Dem Convention, and Joe might seek another debate with him. “He feels that he made a historically tragic mistake by handing over the U.S. presidency, a coup, to the people in the world that he most hates and he wants it back NOW.” https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1820914336111472854/photo/1 After the close, Super Micro Computer Misses Earnings Estimates, Announces 10-for-1 Stock Split Super Micro Computer shares were down more than 12% at $540.02 in extended trading as of 6:50 p.m. ET Tuesday… (Because SMCI’s gross margins fell to 11.2%; other semi stocks are down sharply.) Today – A Turnaround Tuesday occurred; but it appeared to be a manipulation, not an organic event. After a robust rebound after a stock market tumble, a range or consolidation day usually appears. Barring news, this is a good bet for today. The manipulation to protect positions appeared on Tuesday. This operation might continue in the morning, but traders and trapped long liquidation will probably appear. As the action over the past few sessions has indicated, the markets are very thin; a few determined or purposeful players can create sizable movements. If Iran attacks Israel, Joe and Kamala will… NQUs hit -149.00 on SMCI at 18:00 ET. NQUs went vertical from 19:57 ET to 20:35 ET and turned positive. Yes, this is manipulation! ESUs are moving with NQUs. USUs are -7/32 at 20:35 ET. Expected economic data: June Consumer Credit $10.0B; Boston Fed Pres Collins 12:00 ET Expected earnings: HLT 1.85, ROK 2.09, DIS 1.19, CVS 1.73, MRO .70, OXY .78 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5447; 100-day MA: 5308; 150-day MA: 5188; 200-day MA: 5016 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,440; 100-day MA: 39,170; 150-day MA: 38,894; 200-day MA: 37,993 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5239.95 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5052.31 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5602.30 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5500.23 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5381.88 triggers a buy signal Kamala, or her team, selected leftist Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate. GOP types quickly tabbed the Dem duo as ‘the most radical/leftist ticket in US history.’ Trump Campaign: “Tim Walz is a dangerously liberal extremist…” Trump post after Walz was announced as Harris’s VP pick: “Thank you.” ‘Massive gift’: Conservatives rejoice after Harris selects Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz as running mate Walz, 60, is already facing scrutiny for his ‘radical’ record as governor https://www.foxnews.com/politics/conservatives-rejoice-after-harris-selects-minnesota-gov-tim-walz-running-mate @RonDeSantis: Harris-Walz: most left-wing ticket in American history. Minnesota was ground zero for the BLM riots of 2020. Harris egged it on and Walz sat by and let Minneapolis burn. Harris, who reportedly had initially selected PA Gov. Shapiro as her VP, succumbed to pressure from the left to avoid Shapiro. GOP types proclaimed that antisemitism within the Dem Party undid Shapiro. Regime media pundits expressed surprise that Team Harris went far left for its VP instead of taking a moderate to balance the ticket. That’s why leftist Obama selected Biden. @greg_price11: Kamala really went with the ultra liberal, riot supporting governor of a historically blue state over the extremely popular governor of the most important swing state in the country just because picking a Jew would have pissed off their pro Hamas base. @DarrenJBeattie: Out of all the choices, the Arizona astronaut, the Jewish guy from PA, etc. she chooses the George Floyd riot guy. GOP @RepAndyBiggsAZ: Tim Walz let his state burn, and Kamala raised money to bail these criminals out of jail. This is the America that the radical Left wants. GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: Kamala just chose the guy who allowed rioters to loot and burn with impunity? And refused to send out the National Guard for days on end. Good luck with that. @TheBabylonBee: ‘JD Vance Is Weird,’ Says Guy (Walz) Who Signed Bill To Put Tampons In Boys’ School Bathrooms https://buff.ly/3AbwG4p @PhilipWegmann: This clip of Minnesota First Lady Gwen Walz is making the rounds. Her reflection on the 2020 riots: “I could smell the burning tires… I kept the windows open as long as I could because I felt like that was such a touchstone of what was happening.” https://x.com/PhilipWegmann/status/1820870083498975657 Walz has little or no national pizzazz, but he is an ideological aligned with Harris. Pelosi quickly surfaced to debunk the notion that Walz is a radical leftist. “Me thinks, the lady protesteth too much.” @EndWokeness: Gov. Tim Walz’s reaction the BLM riots: “A society that does not put equity and inclusion first will come to this result.” This is who Kamala picked as her VP. https://t.co/AOKkByahVg @CortesSteve: Tim Walz is a far-left radical, which is why Kamala Harris picked him: “Don’t ever shy away from our progressive values. One person’s socialism is another person’s neighborliness.” (Walz) https://t.co/VVD5NnEEHs @VoteHarrisOut: Kamala Harris’s VP choice, Tim Walz, is the governor who just changed the Minnesota flag so it could resemble the Somalian flag (To appease MN Somalis). This man has absolutely ZERO LOYALTY to our country, and he says that socialism is a good thing. https://x.com/VoteHarrisOut/status/1820619623152177235 @MNUpNorthLakeG1: Email from October 2020 shows Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz’s chief of staff (Chris Schmitter) scheming with Health Commissioner Jan Malcolm to find ways to better sell COVID fear because numbers are too small. Malcolm tells staff to get “creative”—two weeks later Walz paused sports & shutdown schools. Schmitter helped concoct lies to control the populace. Schmitter would be Walz’s first hire as VP. https://x.com/MNUpNorthLakeG1/status/1820664992858841191 @CLewandowski_: In 2023, Tim Walz signed into law Minnesota legislation that includes NO limitations on when a woman may end the life of her unborn baby. Including in the 9th month of pregnancy. @JackPosobiec: BREAKING: Minnesota National Guard Leaders publish letter exposing Tim Walz for Stolen Valor – Walz lied about his rank, and quit when he heard his unit was going to mobilize to Iraq The Truth About Tim Walz (Dems and regime media have played up Walz military background!) We, retired Command Sergeants Major of the Minnesota National Guard, feel it is our duty and responsibility to bring forth the truth as we know it concerning his service record. So, we have put together a timeline of his service post 9/11… https://www.wctrib.com/community/letters/the-truth-about-tim-walz @SteveGuest: FLASHBACK: Kamala’s VP pick Tim Walz said he should invest in a “ladder factory” to help illegal aliens climb the border wall. https://x.com/SteveGuest/status/1820838511563481566 Tim Walz signed laws catering to illegal migrants, giving them free healthcare, tuition https://trib.al/16HFpMK @DC_Draino: Man, the Trump people move fast. They just dropped a blistering ad that exposes Tim Walz for: putting tampons in boys bathrooms; allowing minor children to have their genitals permanently mutilated; putting men in women’s sports https://x.com/DC_Draino/status/1820817222119342116 Walz’s history on born-alive abortions opens door for Trump, GOP to flip extremism argument At least eight infants were born alive after botched abortions in Minnesota on Walz’s watch, none was given life-saving care, reports show… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/tueaftwalzs-history-born-alive-abortions-opens-door-trump-gop-flip @JackPosobiec: Ever hear the one about the 2 Marxist drunks who the Democrats nominated for 2024? Fox: Top Dems gush over Walz as the quintessential ‘Heartland of America’ VP pick https://www.foxnews.com/politics/heartland-america-democrat-liberals-congress-gush-over-harris-vp-pick Pundits keep saying Minnesota is the Midwest and Walz should help Kamala there. As an Illinois Midwesterner, Minnesota is perceived to be more of Lower Canada than a Midwestern state! @TheBabylonBee: Democrats Worried Choosing Jewish Vice President May Cost Them the All-Important “Death to America” Vote CNN panel reacts to Pelosi revealing she and Biden haven’t spoken since he dropped out: ‘She’s in charge’ – One panelist said Pelosi’s comments showed she was in charge of the Democratic Party https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-panel-reacts-pelosi-revealing-she-biden-havent-spoken-since-he-dropped-out-shes-charge @paulsperry_: DEVELOPING: Kamala VP pick Tim Walz traveled to Communist China every year from 1996 until at least 2003, after receiving special work visa from the Chinese government, and later honeymooned in China, continuing his infatuation with the Communist dictatorship … In 2020, Kamala’s VP pick Minn. Gov. Tim Walz deliberately waited additional 24 hrs before signing exec order to send Natl Guard into St Paul, letting George Floyd rioters burn down police station +100s of biz. As biz smoldered, Walz wrote “Justice Now” on sidewalk in chalk. GOP Sen. @TomCottonAR: Tim Walz owes the American people an explanation about his unusual, 35-year relationship with Communist China. CIA/NSA Contractor/Whistleblower @TonySeruga: Not enough people know about Tim Walz. He is absolutely a national security risk. He failed his White House security clearance to work in the Biden White House, citing ‘Foreign Influence’… Walz’s relationships with the Chinese Communist Party along with radical islamists and sharia supremacists should disqualify him. He also has questionable relationships with cartels and NGOs linked to radical groups. @JackPosobiec: Tim Walz just falsely claimed JD Vance had sex with a couch in his acceptance speech. These are the decency people? Spare me @JonathanTurley: Not a promising start for campaign tenor. Gov. Walz just referred to the false couch claim involving Vance. He referred to Vance on a couch and said “he really did that” before adding that he is “weird as hell.” The couch story has been debunked repeatedly. The person who made up the story admitted that “In terms of media literacy, and those kinds of things, I guess I was already in the mud rolling around.” That is not exactly a good fact source for your VP acceptance speech… There are rumors that about 12 Dems refused to be considered for Kamala’s VP. | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON THURSDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
