AUGUST 13/GOLD CLOSED UP $3.35 TO $2467.60//SILVER WAS DOWN 19 CENTS TO $27.70//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $3.35 TO $939.80 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $18.60 TO $942.60//EXCELLENT COMMENTARY ON THE PLIGHT OF ENGLAND CAUSED BY LEFTISH GOVERNMENTS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS/IRAN UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/SLAY NEWS/EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS//USA RECORDS ITS 2ND HIGHEST DEFICIT IN HISTORY/INTEREST ON DEBT APPROACHES 25% OF ALL EXPENDITURES AND WILL APPROACH 1.6 TRILLION DOLARS BY DECEMBERS: THEY ARE OUT OF CONTROL/ELON MUSK AND PRES TRUMP TALK ON X AND THAT CAUSES THE LEFT TO GO BONKERS INCLUDING THE EU//SWAMP STORIESS FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 600 118 H MACQUARIE FUT 16 190 H BMO CAPITAL 123 323 C HSBC 50 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3 555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 33 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 37 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 19 661 C JP MORGAN 33 199 661 H JP MORGAN 114 685 C RJ OBRIEN 1 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 690 C ABN AMRO 8 709 C BARCLAYS 23 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 7 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 635 635 MONTH TO DATE: 17,816
JPMorgan stopped 313/635
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 635 NOTICES FOR 63,500 OZ or 1.975 TONNES
total notices so far: 17,816 contracts for 1,781,600 Oz (55.415 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 61 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 330,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 768 for 3,840,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $3.35 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.19 AT THE SLV
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
// INVENTORY AT 465.743+ MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.743 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1056 CONTRACTS TO 147,132 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH VERY MINOR LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $0.37 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY’S TRADING. SOME OF OUR OILIQUIDATION ACCOMPANIED OUR HUGE GAIN OF 1256 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD SMALL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING MONDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD SOME COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE AS WE HAD A SMALL 210 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUMONGOUS 4814 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED 1256 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES TODAY.
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 4814 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.37) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1431 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A SMALL 200 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 4.070 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 4.070 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 4814 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 175 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAYS, total 10,690 contracts: OR 53.450 MILLION OZ (1187 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 53.450 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 53.450 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE A VERY STRONG FOR ISSUANCE.
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1056 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 200 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.005 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR JULY 4.070 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 1256 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GIGANTIC SIZED 4814 CONTRACTS,//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR A PORTION OF THE COMEX OI GAIN//// SOME SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (4814) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 61 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 330,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,112 OI CONTRACTS TO 496,708 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 792 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (13,112 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $30.00 IN PRICE/MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 26,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS FINALLY GUYS ARE STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 66.765 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $30.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 16,083 OI CONTRACTS (50.02 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A GOOD SIZED 2971 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 495,708
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,083 CONTRACTS WITH 13,112 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A GOOD SIZED 2971 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,083 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD 2688 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A GOOD SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2971 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED GAIN IN COMEX OI OF 13,112 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,083 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 17,900 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS THESE BOYS JUMP THE QUEUE TO STAND AT THE COMEX./
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /AUGUST 65.953 TONNES.
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) SMALL ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2688 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 45,619 CONTRACTS OF 4,561,900 OZ OR 141.89 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5331 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 141.89 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 141.89 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4.00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 141.89 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S SIMILAR TO SILVER.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1056 CONTRACTS OI TO 147,132 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 200 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 75 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 200 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1056 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 200 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1256 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 6.25 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.37 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.34% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 62.41 PTS OR 0.36% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 1,207.51 OR 3.45%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.17%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,1660 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1654/ Oil UP TO 79.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.06 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 13,112 CONTRACTS TO 495,708 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $30.00 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS CONTINUED TO PANIC THROUGHOUT THE SESSION AND COVERED AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 116 TONNES+ OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024.
OUR LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AND THIS WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON MONDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2971 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC2971 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2971 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A HUGE SIZED TOTAL OF 16,083 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2971 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 13,112 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $30.00/MONDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT A GOOD SIZED 2971 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (66.8765 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 65.953 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $30.00 //// AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A VEERY MINOR SIZED T.A.S. LIQUIDATION MONDAY/COMEX IF ANY. PROBABLY STORED FOR A TUESDAY RAID.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 52.48 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 26,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 66.765 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 66.765 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $30.00
WE HAVE REMOVED 792 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,083 CONTRACTS OR 1,608300 OZ (50.02
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
17,816 notices 1,781,600 oz 55.415TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 1
i) Out of JPMorgan: 99,828.855 oz (3105 kilobars)
or 3.105 tonnes of gold transferred to London
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 99,828.855 oz
adjustments: 1
jpmorgan: 482.265 oz customer to dealer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 4284 contracts having GAINED 256 contracts.
We had 5 contracts served on MONDAY so we gained an additional 261 contracts or 26100 oz will stand for gold at the comex
SEPT. GAINED 74 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5577 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER GAINED 1032 CONTRACTS UP TO 51,815 CONTRACTS
We had 635 contracts filed for today representing 63500 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 33 notices were issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 615 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 313 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (17,816) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of August 4284( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (635 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,146,500 OZ OR 66.765 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (17816 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (4284 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (635) x 100 oz which equals 2,146,500 oz (66.765 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 66.765 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,602,869.389 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,953,876.673 ( 247.39 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,748,379,366 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,232,543 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 195.85 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 13/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE AUG 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
558,854.257 OZ
CNT Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
i) Asahi 593,073.000 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
66 CONTRACT(S) (330,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
46 contracts (0.230 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
768 Contracts (3.840 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : nil oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i)Into Asahi 593,073.000 oz
total customer deposit 593,073.000 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.771million oz/303.374million or 44.64%
adjustment:1 customer to dealer Manfra 319,275.900 oz
withdrawals: 2
i) Out of CNT 15,0911.84 oz
ii) Out of Delaware: 543,762.417 oz
total customer withdrawals:558,854.257 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.904 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 303.374 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 112 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 1 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 2 NOTICES SERVED ON MONDAY, SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR AN ADDITIONAL 5,000 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX.
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 5335 CONTRACTS TO 71,453. SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 48 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 278 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 66 for 330,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 82,956 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 768 x 5,000 oz = 3.840 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 112) and the number of notices served upon today 66 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month: 768 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (112)x number of notices served upon today minus (66)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 4.070 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 4.070 million oz.
There are 69.585 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
JULY 15 WITH GOLD UP $8.15 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: /INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 835.09 TONNES
JULY 11 WITH GOLD UP $43.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00 ON THE DAY; HUUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR FROM THE GLD//.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 9 WITH GOLD UP $5.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD.//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 834.81 TONNES
JULY 5 WITH GOLD UP $29.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A DEPOSIT OF 1.10 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 3 WITH GOLD UP $35.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD..A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.76 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD//:INVENTORY RESTS AT 833.37 TONNES
JULY 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD../:INVENTORY RESTS AT 827.61 TONNES
JULY 1 WITH GOLD DOWN $.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD/:INVENTORY RESTS AT 829.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 849.79 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ
JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 15. WITH SILVER DOWN 24 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.145 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.// /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 12. WITH SILVER DOWN $.65 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /INVENTORY REMAINS CONSTANT AT 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 11. WITH SILVER UP $.72 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.731 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 435.625 MILLION OZ.
JULY 10. WITH SILVER DOWN $.04 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 9. WITH SILVER UP 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH WITHDRAWAL OF 3.744 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR OUT OF THE SLV.: /INVENTORY FALLS T0 436.356 MILLION OZ.
JULY 8. WITH SILVER DOWN $0.73//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 4. WITH SILVER UP $0.85//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A MAMMOTH DEPOSIT OF 3,292,000 OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV.: /INVENTORY RISES T0 440.100 MILLION OZ.
JULY 3. WITH SILVER UP $1.08//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A SMALL WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ: /INVENTORY LOWERS T0 436,808 MILLION OZ.
JULY 2. WITH SILVER UP $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
JULY 1. WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 182,000 OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./.// /INVENTORY RISES AT 437.447 MILLION OZ./
CLOSING INVENTORY 465.743 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1.PETER SCHIFF SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRAY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
A metals vault bigger than Fort Knox opens in Idaho
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-08-12 16:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Money Metals News Service, Eagle, Idaho Monday, April 12, 2024
EAGLE, Idaho — The Western United States now has its very own Fort Knox, only substantially larger.
After three years of planning and construction, Money Metals has opened its state-of-the-art 37,000-square-foot vaulting and fulfillment facility in Eagle, Idaho.
Nestled at the base of the Boise Foothills, Money Metals’ high-security gold and silver storage compound cost $28 million to construct, has the capacity to hold upwards of $100 billion in gold and silver, and can be expanded to 60,000 square feet.
Built on a 3.2-acre lot adjacent to city and county police and emergency services, the new depository offers an extremely secure location for individuals, businesses, family offices, governments, and financial institutions across the globe to store high-value precious metals assets.
Embedded into the facility are advanced security measures, around-the-clock monitoring, secure access controls, a security team composed of armed former law enforcement and military personnel, and third-party audits and insurance to ensure the highest standards of integrity and protection. …
4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 185 with/Andrew Maguire
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COCOA
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.34% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 62.41 PTS OR 0.36% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 1,207.51 OR 3.45%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.17%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,1660 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1654/ Oil UP TO 79.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 82.06 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.1660
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1654
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.34 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 62.41 PTS OR 0.36%
2. Nikkei closed
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.00 EURO FALLS TO 1.0965 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.851 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 147.52…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE REIGNITING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.2035/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.615 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.056%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.287
3j Gold at $2464.35//Silver at: 27.27 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 75/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.74
3m oil into the 79 dollar handle for WTI and 82 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 147.52/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.851 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8672 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9475 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.901 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.206 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.006 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.56…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.949 DOWN 2 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.105 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Trim Gains After Dismal Outlook From Home Depot
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 08:10 AM
US futures are slightly higher, although well off session highs following disappointing guidance from Home Depot while rising tension in the Middle East weighed on risk appetite. Tech leads modest gains as we receive the first batch of the week’s macro data today when PPI drops at 830am ET. As of 7:45am ET, S&P futures are 0.2% higher, paring a gain of 0.5%, after yesterday’s flat close on Wall Street; Nasdaq futs are up 0.3% with NVDA rising 1.5% as Mag7 are all higher and Semis catch a bid, following yesterday’s outperformance. European markets are lower even as Asian stocks erased last week’s sharp declines led by a bounce in Japan thanks to a drop in the yen. Bond yields are 1-2bps higher which is boosting the USD. Commodities are mostly lower with WTI reversing losses to trade around $80 and Brent at $82 as the US sees an Iranian attack against Israel as increasingly likely; Ags/Precious metals are under pressure. Fed’s Bostic speaks today, and disappointing earnings from HS may shape the market narrative. Tomorrow’s CPI and Thurs’ Retail Sales are the key catalysts.
In premarket trading, Home Depot falls 2% after the company beat lowered its same store sales forecast to a decline of 3-4% for the year, signaling that it expects consumer spending to remain soft in the coming months. Said otherwise, HD expects business to get worse in the second half of the year, which is hardly an endorsement for the strength of the US consumer. Tencent Music Entertainment plunged 6% after reporting results that showed paying users for social entertainment missing estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Dell Technologies shares climb 2.4% after being raised to equal-weight from underweight at Barclays. The bank noted that there’s less downside to the stock as much of the AI hype “has now been washed out of the share price.”
Baxter rises less than 1% after funds managed by global investment firm Carlyle agreed to buy the company’s kidney care segment for $3.8 billion.
Huya gains 7% as the board declared a special cash dividend.
On Holding slips 5% after the sneaker maker maintained its annual adjusted Ebitda forecast, despite the metric topping the consensus estimate for the second quarter.
Pacira BioSciences falls 3% after Truist downgraded the stock to sell from buy, saying a generic Exparel entry is imminent following a court ruling that canceled the drug’s patent.
Paysafe gains 10% after boosting its revenue forecast for the full year.
Rumble rises 4% after the video-network platform reported second-quarter results, with revenue topping estimates.
After last week’s turmoil, markets are focusing on Wednesday’s US CPI report, which may help determine whether the Fed has room to secure a soft landing for the economy. The recent rally in crude oil prices also puts the spotlight on producer-price numbers later Tuesday, as an indicator of pipeline inflationary risks. But first, there is the PPI report on deck at 830am today: economists expect core PPI to rose 0.2% last month from June, when it gained 0.4%, while the headline print is also expected to gain 0.2%.
“The US producer price index for July will give an early indication of price pressures in the month ahead of the consumer price index,” Kristina Clifton, a senior currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, wrote in a note. “Any hints from the PPI of soft inflationary pressures in July can cause financial markets to double down on large interest rate cuts this year from the FOMC” and weigh on USD, she said.
Traders are also monitoring events in the Middle East after the US said an Iranian attack on Israel could be imminent. The implications were underscored by Fitch Ratings’ move to downgrade Israel’s sovereign debt by one notch, to A from A+, while keeping a negative outlook and citing “continued war” and geopolitical risks.
“One could argue that equity is still in recovery mode after last week’s shakeout, and holding out from really putting money to work until we get the key US data this week,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “Pricing US growth is still the main game in town.”
The Stoxx Europe 600 erased an early advance after the ZEW gauge of German investor expectations tumbled more than economists expected (from 41.8 to 19.2, exp. 32.0). Here are the most notable European movers:
Gaztransport & Technigaz again has a clean sweep of positive analyst ratings after Berenberg moves back to a buy after five months with a hold rating, saying the pullback in the stock looks overdone. The shares gain as much as 5.4%.
Swissquote gains as much as 6.8%, hitting the highest in more than a month, after releasing first-half earnings which ZKB sees as positive even though guidance for the full year continues to be slightly below estimates.
Galderma shares rise as much as 3%, making them the biggest gainer in the Stoxx 600 Health Care Index, after the US Food and Drug Administration approved the Swiss dermatology company’s Nemluvio for the treatment of adults with prurigo nodularis, a skin disease.
PolyPeptide rises as much as 15%, extending its winning streak to a fifth day, after the Swiss biotech firm slightly lifts 2024 guidance and outlines target to double 2023’s reported revenue level by 2028.
Bilfinger shares climb as high as 6.6%, the most in six months, after the industrial services company reported faster growth in sales and earnings than expected during the second quarter, according to analysts at Oddo BHF as they nudged up their price target on the stock.
Valneva shares trade 4.3% higher after the French vaccine developer forecast “substantially lower cash burn” in the second half. The stock pared a gain of as much as 11%.
Henkel shares gain 0.3% after results from the German home products maker contained few surprises after its pre-release in July. RBC praised the firm’s 1H gross margin growth.
Tecan shares slump as much as 18%, the most since September 2004, after the Swiss laboratory-equipment maker reported weaker-than-expected results for the first half and cut its outlook for 2024.
Grifols shares dropped as much as 5.7%, worst performing stock on Spain’s IBEX 35, on a report that Brookfield, which is considering a joint takeover offer, found accounting irregularities in its due diligence.
Brenntag shares fall as much as 2% after the German chemicals distributor’s second quarter results were what Morgan Stanley called mixed, highlighting lowered guidance and softer messaging from the company.
Dowlais shares plunge as much as 17% to a record low, before paring the drop to trade 3% lower, after the automotive engineering company signaled its full year results will be below expectations, according to analysts.
Genuit Group falls as much as 5.3%, the biggest drop since June last year, after the plastic piping company suffered from soft demand and reported lower revenue and profits in the first half. Analysts note the challenging backdrop, but were impressed Genuit has grown margins and see an eventual recovery panning out next year.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks climbed Tuesday, with a regional benchmark reclaiming levels seen before the historic August 5 selloff, as equities in Japan extended their rebound on return from a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 1.2%, headed for a third-straight day of gains. Japan’s Topix jumped nearly 3% as a weaker yen was seen providing support for exporters, while benchmarks in China and South Korea also gained. Industrials and information technology were the top-performing sectors on the regional gauge. The continuation of a rebound in Japan is helping all of Asia, said Andrew Jackson, head of Japan equity strategy at Ortus Advisors Pte in Singapore. “Japan is the only market that really matters” right now, he added.
The key Asian stock gauge plunged 6.1% last Monday to mark its worst day since 2008 as fears of a deeper US economic slowdown, an extended rout in Japanese equities and a rotation away from heavyweight tech shares weighed on the market. Many investors bullish on Japan, which commands the highest weighting in the MSCI Asia gauge, have said that the recent selloff in the nation’s stocks provides a fresh reason to buy what has been one of 2024’s hottest trades.
In China, regulators told commercial banks in the Jiangxi province not to settle their purchases of government bonds, taking some of the most extreme measures yet to cool a market rally that has alarmed Beijing. The crackdown is beginning to take a toll on corporate debt markets, as the average yield for one-year corporate yuan bonds with AA ratings — typically considered junk debt in the onshore market — saw the largest jump since December 2022.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed. The British pound gained and the FTSE 100 index underperformed Europe’s benchmark after data showed UK unemployment unexpectedly fell in the second quarter, complicating the Bank of England’s shift to lower interest rates.
Treasury 10-year yields erased an earlier gain to slide to a session low of 3.89%, down 1bp on the session, while US spreads also trade near prior day closing levels. Treasuries were rangebound over Asia, early London session as investors stay sidelined ahead of PPI data due 8:30am New York and then CPI print due Wednesday. Bunds marginally outperform Treasuries and gilts into the US session while S&P futures give up early gains to trade back to near unchanged on the day. Ahead of PPI data, Fed-dated swaps are still pricing in around 100bp of rate cuts for the year with approximately 36bp of cut premium priced into the Sept. 18 meeting
In commodities, WTI trades within Monday’s range, snapping a five-day streak of gains with a 0.3% decline to near $79.8. Most base metals trade in the red. Spot gold falls roughly $12 to trade near $2,460/oz.
Today’s US calendar includes only July PPI at 8:30am. CPI print is due Wednesday, Fed speakers scheduled for the session include Bostic at 1:15pm
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.2 to 5,381
MXAP up 1.1% to 177.48
MXAPJ up 0.1% to 556.52
Nikkei up 3.4% to 36,232.51
Topix up 2.8% to 2,553.55
Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 17,174.06
Shanghai Composite up 0.3% to 2,867.95
Sensex down 0.8% to 79,001.72
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 7,826.84
Kospi up 0.1% to 2,621.50
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 499.36
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.23%
Euro little changed at $1.0921
Brent Futures down 0.5% to $81.85/bbl
Gold spot down 0.5% to $2,461.45
US Dollar Index little changed at 103.21
Top Overnight News
European stocks rose, tracking gains in Asia, as investors awaited US price data for guidance on the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Chinese authorities are going to extraordinary lengths to tighten their grip on the world’s third-largest government bond market.
UK unemployment fell unexpectedly after companies stepped up hiring, a sign of underlying strength in the economy that complicates the Bank of England’s shift toward lower interest rates.
The US believes an Iranian attack against Israel has grown even more likely and may come as soon as this week, officials said, as allied leaders sought to head off all-out war and the Pentagon deployed more forces to the region.
Within the moneyed circles of the Middle East, there’s increasing talk of a shifting power dynamic in the upper echelons of high finance. Apollo, Blackstone and other big money managers are reshaping longstanding practices to win part of the $4 trillion in Gulf sovereign wealth.
MSCI Inc. continues to cull China stocks from its indexes, setting the stage for a further drop in the nation’s share of a key emerging-market benchmark.
Oil declined after a five-day advance, with a likely escalation in the Middle East conflict offset by signs of weakening global demand growth.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed lead from the US ahead of key data and as markets continue to brace for Iran’s retaliation. ASX 200 traded indecisively after mixed data releases and as gains in financials, real estate and the commodity-related sectors were counterbalanced by losses in tech, telecoms and defensives. Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and reclaimed the 36,000 status after returning to last week’s pre-turmoil levels. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with the former supported in energy stocks after yesterday’s oil rally, while the mainland index oscillated between gains and losses in a tight range owing to the lack of fresh macro drivers.
Top Asian news
China’s Vice Premier Liu called for efforts to minimise damage to agricultural production caused by torrential rains and flooding, as well as urged efforts to improve the agricultural sector’s capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. China’s Vice Premier also said they need to step up financial support for the restoration of agricultural production, according to Xinhua.
China’s Hesai is to be removed from the US Defence Department blacklist, according to FT.
Japan’s parliament is to hold a special session at the Lower House committee on August 23rd to discuss the BoJ rate hike, while BoJ Governor Ueda is likely to be asked to attend the special session, according to sources cited by Reuters.
China M2 (July): 6.3% (exp. 6.1%); Total Social Financing (CNY) 770bln (exp. 1.1tln)
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.1%) started the session entirely in the green but succumed to some early morning pressure, which has since pared in recent trade; as it stands, indices are generally in the green. European sectors are mixed, having initially opened with a positive bias. Travel & Leisure is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by the recent advances in oil prices. Basic Resources also lags amid the weakness in the metals complex. US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.5%, RTY +0.2%) are modestly firmer as traders remain mindful of today’s US PPI figures, ahead of CPI tomorrow. Firms have reportedly started testing Huawei’s new Ascend 910C chips, according to WSJ sources; Huawei in talks to secure tens of thousands of chips; framed as a “challenge” to Nvidia (NVDA) on AI hardware.
Top European news
European Gas Prices Fall as Russia Flows Take Steam Out of Rally
Fortnox Sinks to January-Low After CEO Tommy Eklund Leaves
Meta Faces Legal Challenge From Polish Billionaire Over Fake Ads
Grifols Drops on Report Brookfield Found Accounting Issues
UK Reviews Early Data Releases Traders Say Spur Volatility
Fx
DXY is a touch firmer (within a 103.08-27 range) with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers (softer vs. risk currencies/firmer vs. havens). Today’s focus for the greenback will fall upon PPI metrics, albeit any reaction may tempered somewhat by the fact that CPI is due out tomorrow.
EUR is softer vs. the USD with a disappointing German ZEW release adding to the woes for the region’s outlook. EUR/USD is managing to hold above yesterday’s 1.0910 low.
GBP was given a boost by UK jobs metrics which saw an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, albeit, the usual data reliability caveats apply. BoE pricing points to a 66% chance of an unchanged rate in September.
USD is edging gains vs. JPY with the dollar firmer vs. havens alongside gains in stocks. For now, USD/JPY is respecting yesterday’s 146.41-148.22 range.
Antipodeans are both benefitting vs. the USD with the Dollar currently losing out to cyclical fx currencies.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1479 vs exp. 7.1760 (prev. 7.1458)
Fixed Income
USTs are essentially unchanged and awaiting PPI before Wednesday’s US CPI for insight into PCE at the end of the month, a figure which is scheduled for the week after the Jackson Hole symposium. Into the release, USTs are in a narrow 113-04 to 113-11+ band.
Bunds are firmer but ultimately rangebound, continuing the holiday-thinned action seen on Monday. ZEW was particularly poor, with the strongest decline of expectations reported for two years, sparking a modest uptick in Bunds to re-approach their earlier 134.65 peak. No real reaction to subsequent Schatz supply.
Gilts gapped slightly higher at the open to 99.82 from a 99.72 close on Monday, despite a hawkish reaction seen in the Pound following the release. Benchmarks did pull back off these levels ahead of the regions supply, but caught another bid following the robust auction but also in tandem with Bunds, which benefited from the dire German ZEW metrics. Gilts are now back towards their 99.88 peak.
Germany sells EUR 4.038bln vs exp. EUR 5bln 2.70% 2026 Schatz: b/c 2.1x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 2.38% (prev. 2.73%) and retention 19.24% (prev. 18.08%)
Commodities
Crude is slightly subdued intraday but holding onto a bulk of yesterday’s gains amid geopolitical uncertainty. Two major risks include the threat of a retaliation against Israel from Iran and Lebanon, whilst Ukraine’s gains inside Russia could lead to increased tensions between the West and Moscow. Brent trades towards the upper end of a USD 81.50-82/bbl parameter (vs 82.40/bbl high yesterday).
Precious metals trade lower amid the rising Dollar and as newsflow remains light thus far, with participants awaiting potential geopolitical escalations before or after US CPI tomorrow.
Base metals trade lower across the board amid the cautious risk tone coupled with the firmer Dollar.
US Department of Energy said the US seeks to buy 6mln bbls of oil to help replenish the SPR.
IEA OMR: Maintains 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970k BPD; cuts 2025 forecast by 30k BPD; says weak growth in China now significantly drags on global gains – Chinese oil demand contracted for the third straight month. OPEC+ cuts are tightening physical markets. For now, supply is struggling to keep pace with peak summer demand – tipping the market into a deficit. Global observed oil inventories fell by 26.2mln bbls in June after four months of builds. US summer driving season set to be strongest since the pandemic.
Workers at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile will begin strike action, according to the union.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Israeli forces stormed the city of Nablus in the northern West Bank from the Al-Tur military checkpoint, according to Al Jazeera.
Source close to Hezbollah said Iran expressed concern that Israel and the US may strike its nuclear program and fears they will use the outbreak of any large-scale conflict as a pretext to neutralise Iran’s nuclear deterrence, according to a report by The Washington Post.
US and Israeli officials said their assessment was that the Iranian attack wouldn’t happen on Monday night, while President Biden’s top Middle East adviser will travel to Cairo for talks on security arrangements along the Egypt-Gaza border which is critical for a hostage deal, according to Axios’s Ravid.
US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken discussed in a call with his Turkish counterpart the importance of Hamas’s return to negotiations in the middle of this month, while Blinken stressed the importance of completing the framework agreement for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, according to Al Jazeera.
FBI was reportedly investigating suspected hacking attempts by Iran in the Biden and Trump campaigns, according to Reuters and The Washington Post.
“Israeli Army Radio: Israel told allies that it would respond to any Iranian attack by hitting targets in the heart of Iran”, according to Al Jazeera.
“Hamas will participate in the round of negotiations expected next Thursday”, according to Sky News Arabia citing CNN sources
Geopolitics: Russia
Russia’s Intelligence Service suggest Ukrainian President Zelensky is taking steps that threaten escalation far beyond Ukraine, via Ria.
US Event Calendar
06:00: July SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM 93.7, est. 91.5, prior 91.5
08:30: July PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade YoY, prior 3.1%
08:30: July PPI Ex Food, Energy, Trade MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0%
08:30: July PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 3.0%
08:30: July PPI Final Demand YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.6%
08:30: July PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
08:30: July PPI Final Demand MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
2B) European report
US equity futures firmer, Antipodeans lead whilst havens lag, GBP gains post-jobs data; US PPI due – US Market Open
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 06:13 AM
A choppy session for European equities thus far, now currently modestly higher; US equity futures entirely in the green
Dollar is softer vs the Antipodeans but gains vs the typical havens, GBP benefits post-jobs data
USTs are flat awaiting today’s US PPI, Bunds benefit from dire German ZEW metrics
Crude is slightly softer, XAU is lower but within a tight range, base metals are entirely in the red
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.1%) started the session entirely in the green but succumed to some early morning pressure, which has since pared in recent trade; as it stands, indices are generally in the green.
European sectors are mixed, having initially opened with a positive bias. Travel & Leisure is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by the recent advances in oil prices. Basic Resources also lags amid the weakness in the metals complex.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.5%, RTY +0.2%) are modestly firmer as traders remain mindful of today’s US PPI figures, ahead of CPI tomorrow.
Firms have reportedly started testing Huawei’s new Ascend 910C chips, according to WSJ sources; Huawei in talks to secure tens of thousands of chips; framed as a “challenge” to Nvidia (NVDA) on AI hardware.
DXY is a touch firmer (within a 103.08-27 range) with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers (softer vs. risk currencies/firmer vs. havens). Today’s focus for the greenback will fall upon PPI metrics, albeit any reaction may tempered somewhat by the fact that CPI is due out tomorrow.
EUR is softer vs. the USD with a disappointing German ZEW release adding to the woes for the region’s outlook. EUR/USD is managing to hold above yesterday’s 1.0910 low.
GBP was given a boost by UK jobs metrics which saw an unexpected fall in the unemployment rate, albeit, the usual data reliability caveats apply. BoE pricing points to a 66% chance of an unchanged rate in September.
USD is edging gains vs. JPY with the dollar firmer vs. havens alongside gains in stocks. For now, USD/JPY is respecting yesterday’s 146.41-148.22 range.
Antipodeans are both benefitting vs. the USD with the Dollar currently losing out to cyclical fx currencies.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1479 vs exp. 7.1760 (prev. 7.1458)
USTs are essentially unchanged and awaiting PPI before Wednesday’s US CPI for insight into PCE at the end of the month, a figure which is scheduled for the week after the Jackson Hole symposium. Into the release, USTs are in a narrow 113-04 to 113-11+ band.
Bunds are firmer but ultimately rangebound, continuing the holiday-thinned action seen on Monday. ZEW was particularly poor, with the strongest decline of expectations reported for two years, sparking a modest uptick in Bunds to re-approach their earlier 134.65 peak. No real reaction to subsequent Schatz supply.
Gilts gapped slightly higher at the open to 99.82 from a 99.72 close on Monday, despite a hawkish reaction seen in the Pound following the release. Benchmarks did pull back off these levels ahead of the regions supply, but caught another bid following the robust auction but also in tandem with Bunds, which benefited from the dire German ZEW metrics. Gilts are now back towards their 99.88 peak.
Crude is slightly subdued intraday but holding onto a bulk of yesterday’s gains amid geopolitical uncertainty. Two major risks include the threat of a retaliation against Israel from Iran and Lebanon, whilst Ukraine’s gains inside Russia could lead to increased tensions between the West and Moscow. Brent trades towards the upper end of a USD 81.50-82/bbl parameter (vs 82.40/bbl high yesterday).
Precious metals trade lower amid the rising Dollar and as newsflow remains light thus far, with participants awaiting potential geopolitical escalations before or after US CPI tomorrow.
Base metals trade lower across the board amid the cautious risk tone coupled with the firmer Dollar.
US Department of Energy said the US seeks to buy 6mln bbls of oil to help replenish the SPR.
IEA OMR: Maintains 2024 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at 970k BPD; cuts 2025 forecast by 30k BPD; says weak growth in China now significantly drags on global gains – Chinese oil demand contracted for the third straight month. OPEC+ cuts are tightening physical markets. For now, supply is struggling to keep pace with peak summer demand – tipping the market into a deficit. Global observed oil inventories fell by 26.2mln bbls in June after four months of builds. US summer driving season set to be strongest since the pandemic.
Workers at BHP’s Escondida copper mine in Chile will begin strike action, according to the union.
UK ILO Unemployment Rate (Jun) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%), Employment Change (Jun) 97k vs. Exp. 3k (Prev. 19k)
UK Average Week Earnings 3M YY (Jun) 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.6% (Prev. 5.7%); ex-Bonus 5.4% vs. Exp. 5.4% (Prev. 5.7%, Rev. 5.8%)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug) 19.2 vs. Exp. 32.0 (Prev. 41.8); Current Conditions (Aug) -77.3 vs. Exp. -75.0 (Prev. -68.9); Economic outlook for Germany is breaking down, in the current survey, we observe the strongest decline of the economic expectations over the past two years; economic expectations for the EZ, the US and China also deteriorate markedly. It is likely that economic expectations are still affected by high uncertainty. Most recently, this uncertainty expressed itself in a turmoil on international stock markets.
EU ZEW Survey Expectations (Aug) 17.9 (Prev. 43.7)
Kantar: UK Grocery Inflation 1.8% (prev. 1.6% M/M), in the four-weeks to August 4th; UK grocery price inflation warms up for the first time since March 2023.
Spanish HICP Final YY (Jul) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 2.9%); MM -0.7% vs. Exp. -0.7% (Prev. -0.7%)
Spanish CPI YY Final NSA (Jul) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.8% (Prev. 2.8%); MM -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.5%); Core YY (Jul) 2.8% (Prev. 3.0%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli forces stormed the city of Nablus in the northern West Bank from the Al-Tur military checkpoint, according to Al Jazeera.
Source close to Hezbollah said Iran expressed concern that Israel and the US may strike its nuclear program and fears they will use the outbreak of any large-scale conflict as a pretext to neutralise Iran’s nuclear deterrence, according to a report by The Washington Post.
US and Israeli officials said their assessment was that the Iranian attack wouldn’t happen on Monday night, while President Biden’s top Middle East adviser will travel to Cairo for talks on security arrangements along the Egypt-Gaza border which is critical for a hostage deal, according to Axios’s Ravid.
US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken discussed in a call with his Turkish counterpart the importance of Hamas’s return to negotiations in the middle of this month, while Blinken stressed the importance of completing the framework agreement for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, according to Al Jazeera.
FBI was reportedly investigating suspected hacking attempts by Iran in the Biden and Trump campaigns, according to Reuters and The Washington Post.
“Israeli Army Radio: Israel told allies that it would respond to any Iranian attack by hitting targets in the heart of Iran“, according to Al Jazeera.
“Hamas will participate in the round of negotiations expected next Thursday”, according to Sky News Arabia citing CNN sources
OTHER
Russia’s Intelligence Service suggest Ukrainian President Zelensky is taking steps that threaten escalation far beyond Ukraine, via Ria.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is trading incrementally firmer and trading just below USD 59k, whilst Ethereum slips to USD 2640.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed lead from the US ahead of key data and as markets continue to brace for Iran’s retaliation.
ASX 200 traded indecisively after mixed data releases and as gains in financials, real estate and the commodity-related sectors were counterbalanced by losses in tech, telecoms and defensives.
Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and reclaimed the 36,000 status after returning to last week’s pre-turmoil levels.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with the former supported in energy stocks after yesterday’s oil rally, while the mainland index oscillated between gains and losses in a tight range owing to the lack of fresh macro drivers.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Vice Premier Liu called for efforts to minimise damage to agricultural production caused by torrential rains and flooding, as well as urged efforts to improve the agricultural sector’s capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. China’s Vice Premier also said they need to step up financial support for the restoration of agricultural production, according to Xinhua.
China’s Hesai is to be removed from the US Defence Department blacklist, according to FT.
Japan’s parliament is to hold a special session at the Lower House committee on August 23rd to discuss the BoJ rate hike, while BoJ Governor Ueda is likely to be asked to attend the special session, according to sources cited by Reuters.
China M2 (July): 6.3% (exp. 6.1%); Total Social Financing (CNY) 770bln (exp. 1.1tln)
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%); YY (Jul) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%); YY 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.1%)
Australian Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 2.8% (Prev. -1.1%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jul) 1.0 (Prev. 4.0); Conditions 6.0 (Prev. 4.0)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
APAC followed the mixed Wall St. lead into key data – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 01:29 AM
APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed lead from the US ahead of key data.
European equity futures indicate a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.1% on Monday.
DXY is steady just above 103, havens lag vs. the USD, whilst risk currencies outperform.
White House’s Kirby said the timing of Iran’s attack on Israel could be this week and they have to be prepared for what could be significant attacks.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK Unemployment, German ZEW, US PPI, Comments from Fed’s Bostic, Supply from UK & Germany
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks finished mixed with the Nasdaq kept afloat by tech outperformance and the small-cap Russell 2000 tumbled, while the majority of sectors took a hit and price action for the major indices was rangebound amid a lack of catalysts, lingering geopolitical risks and ahead of key data.
SPX flat at 5,344, NDX +0.16% at 18,542, DJIA -0.36% at 39,357, RUT -0.91% at 2,062.
White House official said US President Biden would sign a proposal to bar tax on tips.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks followed suit to the mixed lead from the US ahead of key data and as markets continue to brace for Iran’s retaliation.
ASX 200 traded indecisively after mixed data releases and as gains in financials, real estate and the commodity-related sectors were counterbalanced by losses in tech, telecoms and defensives.
Nikkei 225 surged on return from the long weekend and reclaimed the 36,000 status after returning to last week’s pre-turmoil levels.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were indecisive with the former supported in energy stocks after yesterday’s oil rally, while the mainland index oscillated between gains and losses in a tight range owing to the lack of fresh macro drivers.
US equity futures traded sideways as participants await the looming data releases stateside.
European equity futures indicate a firmer open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.1% on Monday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound just above the 103.00 level amid light catalysts and as participants look ahead to key data releases including US PPI on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday and Retail Sales on Thursday.
EUR/USD remained afloat but with price action kept to within a tight range above the 1.0900 level amid a lack of drivers.
GBP/USD eked slight gains in quiet trade and as UK Unemployment and Average Earnings data releases loom.
USD/JPY gradually edged higher after rebounding off support near the 147.00 level and as Japanese stocks outperformed.
Antipodeans were positive but with gains capped after mixed Wage Price data and Business Confidence survey from Australia, while participants await tomorrow’s RBNZ policy decision.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1479 vs exp. 7.1760 (prev. 7.1458)
FIXED INCOME
10-year UST futures took a breather after gaining yesterday on heightened geopolitical risks and as the focus turns to upcoming data.
Bund futures were contained within a narrow range amid a lack of catalysts and with German ZEW data due later.
10-year JGB futures lacked firm demand amid gains in Japanese stocks and the absence of additional BoJ purchases, while the latest Japanese PPI data printed in line with expectations.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures pared some of the prior day’s firm advances after rallying alongside the ongoing geopolitical risks which saw WTI briefly climb above the USD 80/bbl where it then hit resistance.
US Department of Energy said the US seeks to buy 6mln bbls of oil to help replenish the SPR.
Spot gold partially faded recent gains but with the pullback limited ahead of key data releases.
Copper futures were on the back foot after yesterday’s upward momentum waned and amid the mixed overnight sentiment.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin gradually retreated to beneath the USD 59,000 level amid the mostly flimsy risk appetite in Asia.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Vice Premier Liu called for efforts to minimise damage to agricultural production caused by torrential rains and flooding, as well as urged efforts to improve the agricultural sector’s capacity for disaster prevention and mitigation. China’s Vice Premier also said they need to step up financial support for the restoration of agricultural production, according to Xinhua.
China’s Hesai is to be removed from the US Defence Department blacklist, according to FT.
Hong Kong chip fab which is being led by a Chinese scientist who worked on developing photonic technology for the US military, has raised US research security concerns, according to a report cited by Nikkei.
Japan’s parliament is to hold a special session at the Lower House committee on August 23rd to discuss the BoJ rate hike, while BoJ Governor Ueda is likely to be asked to attend the special session, according to sources cited by Reuters.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corp Goods Price MM (Jul) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.2%)
Japanese Corp Goods Price YY (Jul) 3.0% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q2) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%)
Australian Wage Price Index YY (Q2) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.0% (Prev. 4.1%)
Australian Consumer Sentiment (Aug) 2.8% (Prev. -1.1%)
Australian NAB Business Confidence (Jul) 1.0 (Prev. 4.0)
Australian NAB Business Conditions (Jul) 6.0 (Prev. 4.0)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli military said they are at the highest state of alert. It was separately reported that Israeli forces stormed the city of Nablus in the northern West Bank from the Al-Tur military checkpoint, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran has made significant deployment steps in its missiles and drone systems, similar to those it took before the attack on Israel in April, according to Israeli and US officials cited by Axios’s Ravid.
Source close to Hezbollah said Iran expressed concern that Israel and the US may strike its nuclear program and fears they will use the outbreak of any large-scale conflict as a pretext to neutralise Iran’s nuclear deterrence, according to a report by The Washington Post.
US and Israeli officials said their assessment was that the Iranian attack wouldn’t happen on Monday night, while President Biden’s top Middle East adviser will travel to Cairo for talks on security arrangements along the Egypt-Gaza border which is critical for a hostage deal, according to Axios’s Ravid.
White House’s Kirby said the timing of Iran’s attack on Israel could be this week and have to be prepared for what could be significant attacks. It was separately reported that US forces in the Middle East have been standing by expecting that Iran and Hezbollah’s retaliation could happen since Saturday, while it was noted that no one seems to know when it will occur, according to BBC.
US President Biden discussed with European leaders the Gaza hostage release, while it was separately reported that the US State Department said it fully expects the Gaza peace talks to move forward as planned and believes a ceasefire agreement is still possible.
US State Department said Secretary of State Blinken discussed in a call with his Turkish counterpart the importance of Hamas’s return to negotiations in the middle of this month, while Blinken stressed the importance of completing the framework agreement for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza and the release of hostages, according to Al Jazeera.
FBI was reportedly investigating suspected hacking attempts by Iran in the Biden and Trump campaigns, according to Reuters and The Washington Post.
OTHER
Russian forces took control of the settlement of Lyscychne in Ukraine, according to RIA.
2D JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND
this is a must read.! How England received tyranny with open arms from the political left!
(zerohedge)
‘V For Vendetta’ Got It Wrong: Tyranny Comes To Britain Under The Political Left
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 04:15 AM
There have been plenty of depictions of dystopian future from popular entertainment media over the years, most of them derivatives of books like Brave New World by Aldous Huxley or 1984 by George Orwell with a contemporary spin. Interestingly, Orwell was inspired to write 1984 by a lesser known dystopian tale called ‘We’, written by Russian author Yevgeny Zamyatin during the darkest years of communism. Orwell argued that Huxley was also inspired by We, but Huxley denied it.
Whenever scientific dictatorship is envisioned by fiction writers the end result is usually very similar to already existing socialist regimes. Soviet doctrine and the ideals of the Third Reich were inspired by Karl Marx; meaning, both regimes were built on far-left philosophies. Progressives today often maliciously associate Nazis with conservative thought, but both Adolph Hitler and Benito Mussolini were avid followers of Marx. As Hitler noted on January 27, 1934, in an interview with Hanns Johst in Frankforter Volksblatt:
“National Socialism derives from each of the two camps the pure idea that characterizes it, national resolution from bourgeois tradition; vital, creative socialism from the teachings of Marxism. Volksgemeinschaft: that means a community of all productive labor, that means the oneness of all vital interests, that means overcoming bourgeois privatism and the unionized, mechanically organized masses, that means unconditionally equating the individual fate and the nation, the individual and the Volk…”
Hitler presented himself as a Christian patriot to win over the German public as they faced economic and moral degradation during the unchecked liberalism of the 1920s, but in private he was not a fan of the religion. Hitler is noted by Albert Speer as saying:
“You see, it’s been our misfortune to have the wrong religion. Why didn’t we have the religion of the Japanese, who regard sacrifice for the Fatherland as the highest good? The Mohammedan religion [Islam] too would have been more compatible to us than Christianity. Why did it have to be Christianity with its meekness and flabbiness?”
In fact, finding and defining a “conservative” totalitarian regime is almost impossible in modern times. Without the defense of free markets, individual liberty, meritocracy and a healthy respect for constitutional fairness one cannot call himself conservative. The Nazis were no more conservative than Neo-Conservatives are conservative, they are simply leftists that pursue ultimate power using nationalism as a proxy instead of pure globalism.
How the “right wing” was culturally associated with authoritarianism is all thanks to modern Hollywood. The same people that write endless tales of Nazi horror have long ignored the even greater genocides of communism in the Soviet Union, China and elsewhere. And, whenever a modern dictatorship is portrayed in art or film it is usually tied somehow to a conservative (and often Christian) takeover of society.
This brings us to a little film called V For Vendetta released in 2006, and it brings us to the tyranny now accelerating in the UK.
V For Vendetta is based on the graphic novel by the same name written by Alan Moore (picture below), a talented British scribe but also known by many in the comics industry as a leftist and communist. Moore’s take on an Orwellian government dominating Britain was decidedly anti-conservative, to no one’s surprise.
The film, directed by the Wachowski Brothers (creators of The Matrix and now both claiming to be “trans women” pictured below), took the anti-conservative view from the comic to even greater extremes with an underlying LGBT propaganda message. V depicts a British government gripped by authoritarian Christian zealots bent on rounding up and exterminating gay people (and anyone else they deem unfit). They use an engineered pandemic crisis to frighten the English population and seize power (sound familiar?), establishing a relentless police state run by sexual degenerates that saturates media with disinformation to keep the public docile.
Another film with a similar theme is Children Of Men (release the same year as V for Vendetta), which uses the UK as a backdrop to showcase the steady decline of humanity after a pandemic ends our ability to have children. The authoritarian government in that tale is dominated by white Brits who round up migrants and place them in concentration camps, and of course a migrant woman ends up being the key to solving the question of infertility.
While most people can relate to the struggle against totalitarianism, the intolerable fallacy being perpetuated is that when the jackboots finally march on the western world they will do so in the name of conservative values and religion. Well, the dystopian nightmare has arrived in the UK, and the truth is quite the opposite.
The British public is being culturally diminished through forced mass immigration to which the government offers no redress. UK authorities are far-left in their ideology and promote globalism as the system which Brits must accept without question. And, those same establishment elites have joined with third-world migrants and Islamic militants to terrorize the population into submission.
Today, UK police are out in force threatening to arrest anyone remotely critical of open immigration or UK migrant policies. They have also doubled down on the two-tier policing that caused the patriot protests and riots to begin with. These are not scenes from V For Vendetta, these are scenes from the UK this week:
The UK police have never spoken like this before. It’s like they’re trying to antagonise tens of millions of peaceful sensible Brits who simply want a conversation.pic.twitter.com/TNRgSpG1Da
UK authorities have now made multiples arrests dealing with social media posts and opinions as well as arresting people who were merely spectators at various protests. They are also searching for ways to take down their political opponents, with leftist politicians using MI6 to investigate Nigel Farage for “financial ties” to Tommy Robinson and Russia. It’s expected that adjacent leftist governments around the world will be following the UK’s example.
Is the far-left really oblivious to their own natural tendencies towards tyranny? Or, is all the media depicting a conservative run dystopia really a form of gaslighting? A means to demonize the very people the elites have long sought to erase from history?
When rebellion against this trend explodes (and it will), many great speeches on liberty similar to those spoken in so many pieces of predictive entertainment will not be spoken by leftists and they won’t apply to leftists. Leftists are not the freedom fighters they imagine themselves to be. They are, in fact, the villains of the story.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/EUROPE/IRAN/USA
Biden et al tells Iran to stand down. They probably will not listen
(TIMES OF ISRAEL)
Biden, European Leaders Tell Iran to ‘Stand Down’ Amid Frenzied Speculation
MONDAY, AUG 12, 2024 – 06:50 PM
Is tonight the night? In a familiar refrain of the past several days, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Monday the military is on “peak alert” for an attack from Iran or Hezbollah.
The White House too believes an attack is imminent or at least within “days” away. At the same time a senior Israeli official told Axios: “The Iranians openly signal (on the ground) their determination to carry out a significant attack in addition to their public statements that the attack will exceed the one they carried out in April.”
The official additionally observed that “Iranian public statements do not reflect any retreat.” Warnings from the West urging Tehran to not retaliate have been on repeat for a week-and-a-half following the July 31st Israeli killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
The US has been joined by European countries in calling on Iran to “stand down” amid reports of significant Iranian and Hezbollah weapons movement and positioning.
US President Joe Biden alongside the leaders of the UK, France, Germany, and Italy issued a fresh joint statement Monday: “We called on Iran to stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel and discussed the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place,” a joint statement said after their presidents and prime ministers spoke by phone.
As for the IDF, its latest statement also described that the Israeli Air Force has increased its patrols over Lebanon “to detect and intercept threats.”
“We view the statements of our enemies seriously, and are therefore prepared at the highest level of readiness for defense and attack,” it continued.
Even the Vatican has tried to intervene toward preventing a broader regional war:
Following Haniyeh’s assassination, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Haniyeh’s death would “not pass in vain,” and its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned that “blood vengeance” for the killing is “certain.”
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian furthered those threats on Monday, telling a Vatican official in a phone call that the assassination warrants Iran’s right to “self defense” and to “respond to an aggressor,” Iranian state news agency IRNA reported.
Meanwhile amid fears of the wider Israeli confrontation with the ‘Iran axis’, the IDF has kept up its operations and strikes inside Gaza.
UPDATE • US: Iran attack ‘could be this week’ • Another US destroyer
to region • Israel on alert, situation tense • Gallant clashes with Netanyahu • Israel hits South Lebanon • UK PM
Iran prez • Europeans, US push for ceasefire talks
• US: Iran attack ‘could be this week’ • Another US destroyer 🚢to region • Israel on alert, situation tense • Gallant clashes with Netanyahu • Israel hits South Lebanon • UK PM 📞 Iran prez • Europeans, US push for ceasefire talks https://t.co/3WxtvahzB0
“Palestinian medics said Israeli military strikes on several areas of Khan Younis on Monday killed at least 16 people and wounded several,” reports Reuters. “Meanwhile more families and displaced persons streamed out of areas threatened by new evacuation orders telling people to clear the area.”
END
/ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Violent altercations by IDF forces in the West Bank’s capital Ramallah
(Jerusalem post)
Violent altercations between IDF forces and Palestinians break out in Ramallah – report
By WALLA!AUGUST 13, 2024 02:22Updated: AUGUST 13, 2024 04:2
Violent clashes between security forces and Palestinians in Ramallah, Hebron, and Nablus, ahead of the demolition of the home of terrorist Ayyash Barghouti – one of the perpetrators of the fatal shooting attack at the British Police Junction.
The IDF has placed explosives in his house in the Tira neighborhood of Ramallah in preparation for the blast.
In a later report, the Palestinian Red Crescent announced three people were wounded during the clashes.
END
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Israeli man seriously wounded, 2 Palestinians hurt in West Bank terror shooting
Terrorist, who was released in November hostage deal with Hamas, shot dead by IDF brigade commander after trying to flee scene in Qalqilya
This photo taken shows a neighborhood in the West Bank city of Qalqilya, July 5, 2017. (AP Photo/Nasser Nasser/File)
A Palestinian terrorist shot and seriously wounded an Israeli man, along with two Palestinians, in the West Bank city of Qalqilya on Monday evening, the military said.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, the gunman opened fire at an Israeli man near a car repair shop in Qalqilya, wounding him seriously.
Another two Palestinians next to him were also hurt, according to the military, although their conditions are not known.
The Israeli man, in his 60s, was rescued by the IDF from Qalqilya and taken to Meir Hospital in Kfar Saba, where he was listed in serious condition.
It was unclear what the man was doing in Qalqilya. Israelis are barred from entering West Bank areas controlled by the Palestinian Authority. Despite the ban, some Israelis continue to enter PA cities where prices for goods and services are significantly cheaper than in Israel.
A short while after the military received reports of gunfire and injuries in Qalqilya, the IDF said troops shot and killed the gunman just outside the city, as he attempted to flee.
The Palestinian Authority health ministry named the gunman as Tariq Daoud, 18. It said his body was being held by Israeli authorities.
Daoud, a Hamas operative, had been jailed by Israel previously.
He was released in November as part of the hostage deal with Hamas, in which Israel released Palestinian terror convicts and detainees, mostly from the West Bank, in exchange for Israeli civilians abducted by the terror group on October 7.
According to a military source, the IDF was made aware that Daoud was in Qalqilya, and had planned to arrest him. Not long after, the shooting attack took place.
When the IDF understood that the gunman had fled Qalqilya, the commander of the IDF’s Efraim Regional Brigade, Col. Netanel Shamaka, led his forces in pursuit of the terrorist.
Amid an exchange of fire near the Palestinian town of Azzun, Shamaka shot the terrorist dead, the source said.
The military wing of Hamas later announced Daoud’s death, calling the 18-year-old gunman a “field commander” in the terror group.
Tensions in Israel and the West Bank have soared since October 7, when terrorists burst through the Gaza border into Israel in a Hamas-led attack, killing some 1,200 people and seizing 251 hostages.
Since then, 26 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in Palestinian terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Another five members of the security forces were killed in clashes with terror operatives in the West Bank.
In the same period, troops have arrested some 4,400 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 1,850 affiliated with Hamas.
According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, more than 590 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops, or terrorists carrying out attacks.
END
ISRAEL//HAMAS/GAZA
this is how the deal will be coming forthwith:
Hamas to release 20-30 live hostages to Israel in phase one of deal, Gallant confirms
Israel’s Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced that 20-35 hostages will be released in phase one of a three-phase deal.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attends an assembly session in the plenum hall at the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament in Jerusalem on July 10, 2024 in front of poster of hostages.(photo credit: Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
There are some 20 to 35 live hostages that would be released during the first phase of a deal, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee during a closed-door conversation on the matter held Monday.
His words were first reported by KAN News and confirmed by The Jerusalem Post.
The number of live hostages that would be freed during that phase has been one of the key issues for Israel as it negotiates the implementation details of a three-phase hostage deal first unveiled by US President Joe Biden at the White House on May 31.
It had always been understood that some 18 to 33 hostages would be freed during the first of the deal, slated to last for six weeks. But it was unclear how many of those would be live hostages.
There are some 115 remaining hostages, out of which 76 are presumed to still be alive.
People look photographs of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, at Hostage Square in Tel Aviv, August 5, 2024. (credit: CHAIM GOLDBEG/FLASH90)
Those freed during the first phase have been characterized as “humanitarian hostages,” which would be women, children, the elderly and those who are wounded or ill.
Maximize hostage release
Israel has sought to bring home as many live hostages as possible under that category by creating flexibility around the interpretation of who is considered sick or wounded, Gallant told the FADC.
“On the question of who is considered women and the elderly, there is no dispute; however, on the question of who is considered injured and sick, there is,” continued Gallant. “We are working to maximize the number [of hostages].”
An Israeli official had told reporters weeks ago that Israel was determined to ensure the maximal number of live hostages was freed under that category during phase one of the deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has set this issue as one of his rea lines for a deal.
All the other live hostages would be released in phase two of the deal, but Hamas and Israel have to negotiate the issue of a permanent ceasefire fire prior to the start of phase two of the deal.
It is believed that those talks, which are slated to begin on day 16 of phase one, could extend beyond the six-week period. It has been important for Israel, therefore, to see that as many live hostages as possible are freed under phase one of the deal.
Qatar and Egypt have been mediating the deal tighter with the US. All three countries announced that a significant meeting on hostage talks would take place on Thursday. Israel is expected to have a negotiating team present, but Hamas has said it would not attend.
END
Hamas attempted rocket attack toward Tel Aviv fails, splashing in the water
Following these reports, the IDF confirmed that a rocket crossed from the Gaza Strip and fell into the ocean near central Israel.
Hamas attempted to fire two rockets at Tel Aviv and central Israel on Tuesday, but failed with one of them landing in the Mediterranean Sea and one of them failing to even leave the Gaza Strip.
Citizens in Tel Aviv and other parts of central Israel heard sounds of explosions, initially creating confusion until the IDF clarified the situation.
According to the IDF, the rocket which landed in the Sea was immediately detected, but the IDF did not activate any alarms because it was apparent from the start that its entire trajectory was flying only over the Sea.
Likewise, no siren was sounded for the second detected rocket because it did not cross into Israeli territory.
Shortly after the rockets were fired, Hamas claimed responsibility and tried to spin the failed rocket attack into a success.
Hamas claims responsibility
Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida said that the terror group’s Al-Qassam Brigades “bombard Tel Aviv and its suburbs with two M90 missiles [long-range rocket reaching 90 k.m.] in response to the Zionist massacres against civilians and the deliberate displacement of our people,” in a statement on the terror groups Telegram channel.
In contrast, IDF sources have suggested that in many instances like the current one, Hamas will fire off rockets even if they have no chance of hitting anything rather than allow the rockets to be captured by nearby IDF forces, such as IDF Division 98 which is currently maneuvering in Khan Yunis.
end
WATCH: IDF kills 100 Hamas terrorists, destroys terror tunnels in extended Rafah operations
While operating in Rafah, the IDF eliminated numerous terrorists, confiscated weaponry, and found a tunnel shaft.
In recent days, soldiers from the Givati Brigade operated in the Shabura area in Rafah under the command of the 162nd Division, where they eliminated approximately 100 terrorists, the military stated on Tuesday.
While operating, 100 terrorists were eliminated, and numerous weapons and terror infrastructure sites were destroyed.
Additionally, while searching the area, soldiers located an armed terrorist cell and, through a precise strike, eliminated the terrorists, the IDF said.
Close-quarters combat
Soldiers also located and destroyed booby-trapped buildings and hideout locations. Soldiers engaged in firefights with terrorist cells who barricaded themselves in an apartment in the heart of a civilian neighborhood, where terrorists were successfully eliminated.
After the firefight, soldiers entered the building, where they located weapons, military vests and equipment, and an operational tunnel shaft, the IDF reported.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/HAMAS/HOUTHIS/IRAN/USA
Robert H to us:
Douglas Macgregor on X: “BREAKING NOW: USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group steaming towards the Middle East for imminent attack.. Submarine loaded with 150 cruise missiles now in route.. New intelligence reveals Iran and Hezbollah poised to attack at any moment.. Israeli military placed on https://t.co/BzekDIzDIh”
IDF on ‘peak alert’ for Iran, Hezbollah attacks; US expects it may happen this week
Senior officials say Iran has made same preparations as it did before April attack, though exact timing of launch unknown; army says still no changes to civilian guidelines
An anti-Israel billboard showing Israeli soldiers running with a slogan in Farsi which reads: ‘Laugh a little now, for you will be crying soon,’ is seen on a building in Tehran’s Palestine square on August 8, 2024. (AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces on Monday was at “peak alert” as both Washington and Jerusalem shared expectations that Iran could launch major attacks on Israel as soon as this week.
“We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here. Could be this week,” White House spokesman John Kirby told reporters, amid a flurry of reports that Tehran was getting ready to carry out its reprisal for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on July 31.
Iran has prepped its missile and drone units, similarly to steps taken before its unprecedented attack on Israel in April, Axios reported, citing senior officials in Washington and Jerusalem.
“We have to be prepared for what could be a significant set of attacks,” Kirby added on Monday.
Kirby said the US has increased its regional force posture in recent days, which Channel 12 news reported was larger than its deployment ahead of the unprecedented attack on April 13-14, when the Islamic Republic fired some 300 missiles and drones at Israel, most of which were downed by Israel and its allies.
“We obviously don’t want to see Israel have to defend itself against another onslaught like they did in April. But, if that’s what comes at them, we will continue to help them defend themselves,” Kirby told reporters.
Israeli air defense systems intercept missiles fired from Iran, in central Israel, April 14, 2024. (AP/Tomer Neuberg)
He added: “It is difficult to ascertain at this particular time if there’s an attack by Iran or its proxies what it could look like.”
“The president is confident that we have the capability available to us to help defend Israel should it come to that,” Kirby said, adding, “Nobody wants to see it come to that.”
Regional tensions have spiraled since Iran threatened retaliation against Israel for the killing of Haniyeh in Tehran last month. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the assassination widely attributed to the IDF. Iran’s proxy Hezbollah terror group has also vowed a major response to Israel’s killing of its top military commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut, several hours before Haniyeh’s assassination.
The Biden administration’s special envoy Amos Hochstein, who has attempted to advance efforts to de-escalate fighting between Israel and Hezbollah, was set to visit Beirut on Tuesday, Channel 12 news reported.
Kirby also noted Monday that the timing of any Iranian attack could affect Gaza hostage-ceasefire talks, currently scheduled to resume on August 15. Israel has confirmed that it will send a delegation to the talks, while Hamas has refused to attend. White House Mideast czar Brett McGurk reportedly departed Washington on Monday for talks in Cairo to prepare for Thursday’s summit.
Senior officials stressed to Axios that neither Israel nor the US can predict the exact timing of the retaliation attack that Iran has threatened.
“The Iranians openly signal (on the ground) their determination to carry out a significant attack in addition to their public statements that the attack will exceed the one they carried out in April. Iranian public statements do not reflect any retreat,” a senior Israeli official told Axios.
Amid the heightened tensions, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said that the military is on “peak alert” for a potential attack from Iran or Hezbollah in Lebanon.
File: IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari delivers an English-language address, June 16, 2024. (Screenshot)
However, he made clear that there are still no changes to emergency guidelines for civilians, even as reports claim that an Iranian attack on Israel is imminent.
If there are, “we will update immediately,” he said. “We will update [the public] as early as possible… but without giving our enemies an intelligence or operational advantage.”
“In recent days, we are tracking our enemies and the developments in the Middle East, especially Hezbollah and Iran,” Hagari said in a press conference.
He said that the Israeli Air Force has increased its patrols over Lebanon, “to detect and intercept threats.”
“We view the statements of our enemies seriously, and are therefore prepared at the highest level of readiness for defense and attack,” Hagari stated.
Keir Starmer called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian today amid Western warnings Iran could be about to attack Israel, according to the No10 Flickr account
·
18.2K Views
Keir Starmer called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian today amid Western warnings Iran could be about to attack Israel, according to the No10 Flickr account pic.twitter.com/NY0uhVx3hI
Amid efforts to restrain the Islamic Republic, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Monday his country has “the right to respond” to any aggression after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz urged de-escalation.
“While emphasizing diplomatic solutions to issues, Iran will never give in to pressure, to sanctions, and to bullying and considers it has the right to respond to aggressors in accordance with international norms,” Pezeshkian said according to a statement published by official news agency IRNA following a phone call with Scholz.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer also spoke with Pezeshkian on Monday as part of de-escalation efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East, the premier’s office said.
Starmer asked him to refrain from attacking Israel and said that war was not in anyone’s interest, the British prime minister’s office stated.
Pictures shared online by 10 Downing Street showed Starmer on the phone with a caption saying he was talking to Pezeshkian.
According to Sky News, which first reported the story, Starmer held a 30-minute phone call with Pezeshkian after speaking with US President Joe Biden and other European allies.
Biden and the leaders of France, Germany, Italy, and Britain issued a joint statement urging Iran to “stand down” its threats of an attack on Israel.
“We called on Iran to stand down its ongoing threats of a military attack against Israel and discussed the serious consequences for regional security should such an attack take place,” the leaders said after speaking together by phone.
END
ISRAEL//
this could lead to trouble as Ben gvir leads over 1000 Israelis to the Temple Mount (Al Aqsa Mosque)
Ben Gvir Leads Over 1,000 Israeli Settlers In Jewish Prayer At Flashpoint Al-Aqsa Mosque
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 10:20 AM
Israel’s hardline and very controversial National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has stirred Palestinian and international outrage once again, this time by by leading prayers marking a Jewish holiday inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem, accompanied by over 1,000 Israeli settlers.
Israeli authorities have long had a ban on non-Muslims conducting religious events or displaying religious symbols inside the compound, even though they are permitted to visit the mosque, which is Islam’s third holiest site behind Mecca and Medina.
But Ben Gvir’s entry happened under the protection of Israeli police. At the same time, local media showed Muslim worshippers being blocked from seeking to access the mosque while the Jewish settler groups were present. Past events like this led to outbreaks of severe clashes between Palestinians and police, and violence between the Israeli and Muslim groups.
A Muslim official who oversees the Al-Aqsa compound told AFP: “Minister Ben Gvir, instead of maintaining the status quo at the mosque is supervising the Judaization operation and trying to change the situation inside Al-Aqsa mosque.”
This happened on the Jewish mourning day of Tisha Be’Av which commemorates the destruction of the ancient temple. The whole area is often referred to as Temple Mount, given it is where the ancient second Jewish Temple stood. The Western Wall is sacred to the Jews, while Al-Aqsa Mosque was erected above it under the fifth Umayyad caliph Abd al-Malik in the 7th-8th centuries A.D.
Some reports have put the number of Jews who breached the compound alongside Ben Gvir at over 2,200. They were filmed performing Talmudic rituals once inside, while police kept any onlooking Palestinians from getting close to the group.
Ben Gvir subsequently released a video on social media sites of him issuing declarations that Israel will win the war in Gaza while standing just outside Al-Aqsa Mosque.
“We must win this war. We must win and not go to the talks in Doha or Cairo,” he said in reference to ongoing but largely stalled ceasefire talks with Hamas. “We can defeat Hamas.. we must bring them down to their knees,” he added.
Moderates within the Israeli government, especially Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, have latelyopenly clashed with both PM Netanyahu and hardliners like Ben Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich. Several scandals have been dominating Israeli media of late, including the following:
Israel’s military prosecution requested that five Israeli soldiers accused of gang-raping a Palestinian detainee in Sde Teiman detention camp be released to house arrest while the investigation continues, the Times of Israel reports.
The request would keep the soldiers in detention until 22 August.
The house arrest is reportedly part of an agreement between the defence and the prosecution which will be presented to judges at a military court during a remand hearing later on Tuesday.
The hardliner camp has been outraged that the troops have been arrested, and have been vocal in saying there are ‘no rules’ when it comes to treatment of suspected terrorists.
Additionally the defense ministry has been vocal in saying that the total eradication of Hamas, which Netanyahu has been strongly pushing for, will ultimately be impossible and that doing a deal to get back the remaining hostages should be a top priority.
end
ISRAEL/IRAN/TUESDAY LATE AFTERNOON
Iran Signals It’s Climbing Down From Israel Attack Plans, 2 Weeks After Hanyieh Killing
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 01:20 PM
We have reached two weeks since the July 31st assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, and Iran’s anticipated major retaliation on Israel which its leaders have been threatening still hasn’t come.
On Tuesday Tehran leaders appear to be walking back threats. They won’t launch an attack based on key conditions, they say. Reuters and Times of Israel have cited three Iranian officials who said “An Iranian attack on Israel could be delayed amid hoped-for negotiations later this week for a hostage release and ceasefire deal in Gaza“ which indicates that “a successful deal could hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for alleged assassinating Hamas terror chief Ismail Haniyeh on its soil.”
So now the pressure is on to at least proclaim the beginnings of a deal by week’s end, which has already happened several times before, after which a ceasefire agreement ultimately collapses based on wrangling over details and timing.
Once again, Iran is signaling an indefinite timeline related to the threat of an attack: “The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before taking action,” Reuters continues. And more:
Several reports in recent days indicated Israel believes Iran intends to attack before Thursday’s renewed talks for a deal. The new comments appeared to signal that the attack would only take place after those talks, and only if they failed to yield what Iran deems to be sufficient results.
As of Monday, Iran rejected calls from Group of Seven countries to “stand down” – saying that it has a “legal right” to counter attack given an official was brazenly assassinated on its soil.
Iran sees the leader of Hamas as essentially a politician and ‘head of state’ – while Israel and the West consider him a terrorist and legitimate target responsible for the Oct.7 mass killings of Israelis and foreigners.
Markets have generally reacted positively to what seems a ‘climb down’ – with oil prices pulling back from Monday’s rally which was driven by heightened fears of broader regional war.
Still as of Tuesday morning, Iran’s president has presented fresh warnings:
On Tuesday morning, Iranian state news agency Irna reported that Mr Pezeshkian had told Sir Keir that Western countries’ support for Israel had encouraged it to “continue atrocities” and threatened peace and security.
“Pezeshkian stated that from the point of view of the Islamic Republic of Iran, war in any part of the world is not in the interest of any country, emphasizing that a punitive response to an aggressor is a legal right of states and a way to stop crime and aggression,” Irna added.
Clearly there is a strong element of ‘psychological warfare’ motivating this, in order to keep Israeli society on edge, and increase Iran’s leverage in their dealings with Western diplomats.
But the Israeli government itself is deeply divided on the prospect of a lasting ceasefire and deal with Hamas. Lately this has led to an open split between PM Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
RUSSIA/USA
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUES
Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;
Science journal buries high myocarditis risk from COVID vax, claims shot reduces heart attacks
Journal trumpets no effect on “most” autoimmune connective tissue diseases over 620% myocarditis increase in Korean study.
A science journal published studies last month that alternately claimed COVID-19 vaccines vastly increase the risk of myocarditis, and lower the “incidence of common cardiovascular events” more than raising “known rare cardiovascular complications” such as myocarditis.
The differing emphases in two COVID vaccine studies published eight days apart in the same Springer Nature journal comes a year after Stanford medical professor and Great Barrington Declaration coauthor Jay Bhattacharya warned about the “concoction of pseudo-consensus in science and its ramifications for our society.”
Nearly two years ago, Stanford Med’s Robert Kaplan, UCLA medical and public health professors Patrick Whelan and Sander Greenland, and British Medical Journal senior editor Peter Doshi estimated a 1-in-800 rate of serious adverse events in adults following mRNA vaccination based on Pfizer and Moderna trials, staggeringly high relative to previous vaccines.
The South Korean paper’s corresponding author Solam Lee told Just the News that “any reviewers, editors, or Nature Communications did not exert any influence on our research or its findings.”
Nature Communications did not respond to Just the News queries Monday on its editorial choices regarding the portrayal of myocarditis in the two studies. The corresponding author of the British paper didn’t respond either.
The South Korean study’s findings got noticed and publicized by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s vaccine-skeptical Children’s Health Defense days before the British study was published.
The study’s purpose was nailing down the association between mRNA vaccination and “autoimmune connective tissue diseases,” finding that jabs did not increase the risk for developing “most” AI-CTDs except for a 1.16-fold risk for the most common form of lupus relative to the “historical control cohort,” composed of people two years before their vaccination.
The study did find that boosting — a third dose — was “associated with an increased risk of some AI-CTDs including alopecia areata, psoriasis, and rheumatoid arthritis.” The data came from National Health Insurance Service and Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency databases, which cover 99% of the population and its COVID vaccination profiles.
The authors, all from Yonsei University’s Department of Dermatology, didn’t use unvaccinated people as controls for fear of “inappropriate cohort selection and potential selection bias.” (South Korea’s two-dose vaccination rate was already nearly 97% in October 2022.)
CHD Chief Scientific Officer Brian Hooker said he was perplexed the authors took it as “ho hum” that myocarditis, pericarditis and Guillain-Barré syndrome were associated with vaccination, as if those serious adverse events weren’t worth reconsidering the value proposition.
The authors said they used those serious adverse events as “positive control outcomes” to validate their findings on the AI-CTDs.
The adjusted hazard ratio for myocarditis was 7.20 at the 99% confidence interval, meaning a 620% greater risk following vaccination, though the CI was wide (4.37-11.86). The CIs were far narrower for pericarditis and GBS, with aHRs of 2.75 (175% increased risk) and 1.62 (62%).
Only mentioned in a figure: Females had twice the aHRs of males for myocarditis and pericarditis, though the CIs were also wide.
New study out of Korea shows 9-fold increase in myocarditis after COVID mRNA injections, and yet the “scientists” conclude they should do more study on …. skin diseases??? WHAT? https://t.co/y27W8tttFY H/T: Dr. Willie Soon pic.twitter.com/Ur3dZAeyGK
The increased risk for bullous pemphigoid, a blister condition that primarily affects elderly people, was 53% overall but three times higher for women specifically. The authors pointed this out in the text, unlike for the sex disparity on heart inflammation.
About 2.2 million people had a third dose in the vaccination cohort, and their increased risks of alopecia areata, psoriasis and rheumatoid arthritis compared to non-boosted people were 12%, 16% and 14% respectively.
The authors warned that the booster finding “should be interpreted cautiously” because a third jab can restore waning efficacy and reduce COVID severity. They also referred to “healthy vaccine effect,” which refers to an overestimation of vaccine efficacy by virtue of healthy people being more likely to get jabbed, to caution on the booster finding.
Lee, the corresponding author, told Just the News the study was “primarily and specifically designed to examine the incidence” of AI-CTDs).
“Consequently, the analysis regarding myocarditis in our study was not finely tuned, and our research does not aim to assert an increased risk of myocarditis,” Lee said.
Regarding the British study, Lee said “I believe it may not be appropriate to directly compare the results of these studies on a one-to-one basis.”
Echoing Gupta’s faith in modeling studies, the paper claims COVID vaccination saved 14.4 million lives in the pandemic’s first year based on a mathematical model.
It also asserts that the first vaccine dose “led to an overall reduction in cardiovascular events” and purports to study the effect of the second and third doses, using the National Health Service England Secure Data Environment and Office of National Statistics death registrations.
“The incidence of common arterial thrombotic events (mainly acute myocardial infarction and ischaemic stroke) was generally lower after each vaccine dose, brand and combination,” as was “common venous thrombotic events, (mainly pulmonary embolism and lower limb deep venous thrombosis),” the authors wrote.
They used the word “rare” 10 times in the study’s body, always referring to cardiovascular adverse events following vaccination — myocarditis for mRNA vaccines and “vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia” for adenovirus-based vaccines.
The study “offers reassurance regarding the cardiovascular safety of COVID-19 vaccines,” the authors conclude. “We hope this evidence addresses public concerns, supporting continued trust and participation in vaccination programs and adherence to public health guidelines.”
NBC’s Gupta argued that this “result isn’t what the legions of white coats who continue to spread misinformation were hoping for,” in a post on X Aug. 1.
The first problem is the paper glides over its own data by assuming “the people who get 0 doses [are] similar to those who get 1,2, and 3 doses,” Prasad wrote in his newsletter Aug. 3. He also made an accompanying video.
It uses a geography-based poverty measurement that shows those who are most deprived and current smokers are far more likely to be unvaccinated or not boosted than those least deprived and who formerly or never smoked. Prasad doesn’t care for the variable because it doesn’t compare “individual household wealth and income among vaccine recipients.”
The authors didn’t try to measure the “residual confounding” of healthier people having fewer heart attacks in general — not because they are “obedient” and keep getting jabbed — and those who plan to get boosted but have cardiac events first, Prasad said.
He suggested he most baffled by the journal’s failure to demand “falsification testing” from the authors — “the rate of things that boosters could not possible lower, like car accidents or non-covid mortality” — and their atypical finding that subsequent doses have even greater effects than the first dose.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Rabobank: Questions Swirl What The Economic Program Of A Harris Administration Might Look Like
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 10:40 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior strategist at Rabobank
Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc
Stocks struggled for direction yesterday as markets looked ahead to a packed data calendar for the rest of the week. The S&P500 closed flat, the NASDAQ rose 0.21% and the EuroStoxx 50 closed marginally lower. Active Brent crude futures defied lower demand estimates from OPEC+ to rise 3.31% (the most since October last year) as markets continue to brace for escalation in the Middle East, and the Treasuries curve barely moved at all.
Energy markets are particularly interesting at the moment. Dutch TTF natural gas futures took a bit of a breather yesterday after rallying for four-straight sessions last week. Active TTF futures closed down 1.79% following signs that Ukraine’s military incursion into Russian territory has not materially interrupted natural gas flows through the Sudzha metering point. Meanwhile, UK National Balance Point gas prices hit their highest levels since December last year before selling off into the close.
Bloomberg reports that Crown LNG is aiming to construct a fourth British LNG import terminal by 2027, cutting the UK’s reliance on pipeline gas from the continent but also locking in a higher cost base for British supplies under normal market conditions. Rabobank Energy Analyst Florence Schmidt expects that any further geopolitical developments in the Middle East or Russia/Ukraine will keep European gas prices well supported in the near term, with warm weather providing the only bearish influence on prices.
Gold prices are again trading close to all-time highs after gaining 1.7% yesterday. The gains in gold came despite little change in the Bloomberg Dollar spot index but might be a reflection of nerves over geopolitical issues and a marginal increase in market pricing of rate cuts for the September Fed meeting (-39.2bps today vs -38bps yesterday). US PPI figures released later today will provide further direction to markets before the key CPI release tomorrow and jobless claims on Thursday.
PPI aside, the other major event today is Donald Trump’s return to the X platform in a live exchange with Elon Musk. In an extended (and, at time of writing, ongoing) interview Trump excoriated the Biden administration’s performance on dealing with the pandemic, controlling inflation, the border and international affairs while highlighting the strong economic performance of his own administration. The latter might contain some degree of ‘poast’-hoc fallacy (as does the Biden/Harris claims on job creation) as the Trump administration benefited in-part from ongoing recovery from the 2007/8 financial crisis.
Trump’s return to X might be interpreted as an attempt to regain the initiative in a Presidential race where some polling and betting markets have Kamala Harris taking a lead in likely electoral college outcomes. The Trump campaign appears to have been caught flat-footed by the switchout of Biden for Harris, but there’s still plenty of water to pass under the bridge before election day in November.
While Harris is enjoying a poll bump at the moment, questions are being raised about what the economic program of a Harris administration might look like. The Trump trade is already reasonably well understood, and the likely inflationary effects of an expansion of tariffs, tax cuts and easier monetary policy are incorporated into some market forecasts (including ours). Harris’ economic program remains a comparative mystery, but the Vice President has started to put some flesh on the bones recently by suggesting that she would safeguard the independence of the Fed while adopting Donald Trump’s idea of exempting tips from income tax.
Critics have pointed out that Harris’ adoption of Trump’s plan to exempt tips from income tax is at odds with her having cast a tie-breaking vote to pass Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act, which included a provision to hire 87,000 new IRS agents to tighten up on income tax compliance. The Harris campaign has indicated that it plans to release further details of the Vice President’s economic agenda as early as Friday this week. Might that announcement contain some post-hoc fallacies of its own?
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
VENEZUELA
Amnesty On The Table: Biden Officials Want Maduro To Regime Change Himself
MONDAY, AUG 12, 2024 – 06:00 PM
A fresh Wall Street Journal report reveals just how desperate Washington officials are to see Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro swiftly exit power, after the US has accused him and his officials of stealing the vote, keeping former diplomat Edmundo González from power while reportedly locking up thousands of opposition supporters.
“The U.S. is pursuing a long-shot bid to push Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to give up power in exchange for amnesty as overwhelming evidence emerges that the strongman lost last month’s election, people familiar with the matter said,” WSJ writes.
“The U.S. has discussed pardons for Maduro and top lieutenants of his who face Justice Department indictments, said three people familiar with the Biden administration deliberation. One of the sources said that the Biden administration is putting “everything on the table” in order to peaceably persuade Maduro to step down before his term is up in January. To translate, Biden officials are asking nicely: please Mr. Maduro, won’t you cancel yourself?
But Maduro and his government have hailed him as the legitimate victor of the July 28th national election. He’s set to enter a third 6-year term. He has many times over the last several years accused Washington of plotting coup and regime change against his rule, and there is ample evidence that there is more truth than falsehood to these accusations.
Rather than present the US as in a position of power vis-a-vis Caracas, the whole WSJ report and its claims—largely the product of the usual ‘anon security and defense officials’—is a testament to just how pathetic, weak, and desperate US policy toward the ‘rogue’ state remains.
Maduro will supposedly turn himself in on cocaine charges in return for an ‘amnesty’ based on what he sees as total fictions of a fraudulent and ‘imperialist’ American system? The following could arguably be some of the dumbest and most fantastical lines ever cooked up by the gaggle of career national security pencil pushers in charge of Latin America policy:
Another person familiar with the talks said the U.S. would be open to providing guarantees not to pursue those regime figures for extradition. The U.S. in 2020 placed a $15 million bounty for information leading to Maduro’s arrest on charges of conspiring with his allies to flood the U.S. with cocaine.
The talks represent a flicker of hope for a Venezuelan political opposition that meticulously collected voter tallies showing its candidate, little-known former diplomat Edmundo González, defeated Maduro in a landslide in the July 28 election. Over the past two weeks, Maduro has jailed thousands of dissidents, maintained the military’s loyalty and tasked the Supreme Court, stacked with his handpicked allies, with resolving the election impasse, buying him time.
As recently as Friday, Maduro put it very simply in a televised news conference: “Don’t mess with Venezuela’s internal affairs, that’s all I ask for,” Maduro said.
‘In Secret Talks, U.S. Offers Amnesty to Venezuela’s Maduro for Ceding Power’
I can’t stress how weak of a move this is for the U.S.
The U.S. is offering Maduro a pardon if he steps down. This is an absolute joke. “Kindly step down bc the coup we orchestrated didn’t work” pic.twitter.com/0bNfM65TMc
Where does US policy go from here? Biden’s gambit to ease sanctions on Venezuelan crude, bring Maduro ‘in from the cold’, and tap cheap energy at a crucial moment of wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East appears at a standstill.
Now with a crack-brained plan to offer “amnesty” to Maduro having been floated (surely an object of laughter and mockery among Venezuelan officials), perhaps Washington is ready to try the whole Guaidó-style thing with González, who has even less name recognitions internationally, and declare him ‘Interim President’.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0926 DOWN 0.0011
USA/ YEN 147.52 UP 0.499 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES REIGNITES//
GBP/USA 1.2788 UP 0.0018
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3734 DOWN .0007 (CDN DOLLAR UP 7 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.34%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 62.71 PTS OR 0.36%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.17%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT SPAIN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT SPAIN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 62.41 PTS OR 0.36 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 9.74 PTS OR 0.34%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.17%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1207.51 PTS OR 3.45%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2464.20
silver:$27.74
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 103.00 UP 4 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1539 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1543)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.55 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.849
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.865% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.167 DOWN 6 in basis points /12.00 PM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.961 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2471.90
SILVER AT 11;00: 27.62
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 24.98 PTS OR 0.30%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 86.98 PTS OR 0.46%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 25.20 PTS OR 0.35 %
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 77.60 OR 0.73%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 78.13 PTS OR 0.24% PTS
WTI Oil price 78.94 12EST/
Brent Oil: 81.20 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 91.25 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 25/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1525 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.914 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.069 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0984 UP 0.0058 OR 58 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2864 UP 0.0093 OR 93 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.9175 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.849
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.63 DOWN 0.391 YEN UP 39 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3711 DOWN 0.0030//CDN dollar UP 30 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 78.28
Brent OIL: 80.53
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 9 BASIS pts to 3.855
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 8 BASIS PTS to 4.161%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 8 PTS AT 3.940
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.059 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.40 DOWN 56 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.55 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 90.50 UP 0 AND 49/100 roubles
GOLD 2,465.95 3:30 PM
SILVER: 27.79 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 406.53 PTS OR 1.03%
NASDAQ UP 464,41 PTS OR 2.50 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.32 DOWN 2.39 PTS OR 11.84%
GLD: $228.05 DOWN 0.36 OR 0.16%
SLV/ $25.42 DOWN 0.07 OR 0.27%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Dollar Dumped To 4-Mo Lows, Bitcoin & Big-Caps Pumped Ahead Of CPI Tsunami
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Cooler than expected headline and core PPI (dovish for monetary policy hopefuls) trumped the margin-compression (bearish for corporate profitability and therefore stocks) aspect of the producer prices data this morning exaggerating a weak-dollar/BTFD stocks trend that emerged overnight.
The ‘cool’ PPI knocked the ‘inflation-surprise’-macro-index down to its lowest since February… but at the same time ‘growth-surprise’ data has also stagnated significantly…
Source: Bloomberg
But, it was the dollar index that stood out today, tanking to post-payrolls plunge lows…
Source: Bloomberg
… dumped to its lowest in four months, breaking below its 200DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, as the dollar tanked, it was a buy-all-the-things day with bonds (prices) up, stocks up, and crypto up; but of particular note was weakness in oil (well, Iran hasn’t blown anything to shit today), and gold (flat – at record highs – as WW3 appears to be postponed… for now).
Nasdaq was the biggest winner on the day (surging 2.5%), but all the majors were up strong today…
Seems like we could have seen this one coming…
Goldman Sees Surge In Stock Buyback Orders As Volatility Fades
…and ‘most shorted’ stocks were squeezed hard, having now erased exactly 50% of their plunge from last week…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was sold once again, back down to an 18 handle (and the levels before the payrolls panic)…
Source: Bloomberg
But shorter-dated vol is aggressively bid into tomorrow’s CPI and NVDA’s earnings
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields tumbled on the day, extending lower after the cool PPI. The Short-end outperformed (2Y -8bps, 30Y -4bps)…
Source: Bloomberg
The 2y Yield broke back below 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations jumped around 10bps on the day, mainly focused on the 2024 shift…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged back to $61,500, erasing all of the weakness from Sunday…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil prices dipped after WTI double-topped at $80…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was relatively flat today, holding at record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, for context, today’s tumble in the dollar was NOT driven by a resumption of the yen-carry trade…
Source: Bloomberg
…of course tomorrow’s CPI print will decide which way yen breaks out.
AFTERNOON TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Are we reaching our Minsky moment? Interest on debt for fiscal 2024 is approaching 1.12 trillion. On a 12 month basis interest on debt is approaching 1.6 trillion dollars. July’s deficit at 243/7 billion is the 2nd biggest in history. Shortly interest on debt will be the highest single entity to go along with other mandatory expenditures such as Medicare
.
(zerohedge)
US Records 2nd Biggest July Deficit In History As 25% Of Tax Revenue Go To Pay Interest
MONDAY, AUG 12, 2024 – 05:20 PM
While there was much more talk about the soaring US budget deficit earlier this year, when debt seemed to rise by $1 trillion every other month, lately it appears that the topic has become almost taboo perhaps because neither presidential candidate has any plan or clue how to normalize the trend which assures fiscal collapse for the US and the loss of dollar reserve status.
But while others may have conflicts of interest in reporting on this most important topic, we don’t, and we are sad to inform our readers that July was another catastrophic month for US fiscal viability: that’s because US tax revenue of $330.4BN (down sharply from the $466.3BN in June, if higher than the $276.2BN a year ago), was far below the $573.1BN in government outlays (which was materially above the $537.2BN in June and also the $496.9BN last July)…
…. resulting in a monthly deficit of $243.7BN, the second largest July budget deficit on record, surpassed only by the record post-covid print in July 2021.
With two months left in the fiscal year, the US budget deficit for fiscal 2024 has hit $1.517 trillion, tracking last year’s blowout expansion almost dollar for dollar (one year ago the cumulative deficit was $1.613 trillion), and the 4th highest on record despite there being no raging emergency and no war demanding such a massive deficit spend.
Unfortunately, that’s as good as it gets, because when one takes a step back and ignores the monthly calendar effects, the picture remains the same: the US is spending far more than it is generating in tax revenues.
In fact, at $581BN, the 6-month moving average (to smooth out month-to-month changes) in US government spending has risen to the highest level since August 2021, when the US was still reeling from the covid shock.
So how is this possible? How can the US, which is now $35 trillion in the hole justify this kind of irresponsible, profligate spending? The only possible answer for why this level of explosive deficit (and debt) growth continues, is the admin’s ongoing attempts to buy as many votes as possible, as well as the relentless increase in interest on the US debt.
And it only goes downhill from there, because as we have noted previously, the biggest risk factor is not so much spending on such discretionary items as social security, health and national defense (“how dare you say these are discretionary! these are mandatory, untouchable outlays” some will scream, but if and when the taxes dry up and the dollar loses its reserve status you will see just how discretionary they are), but on interest, and here recall what we said back in April: “interest on US debt – currently the second biggest government outlay at $1.2 trillion – will surpass social security and become the single biggest US expense before the end of 2024 at $1.6 trillion.”…
Now that rate cuts are off the table, interest on US debt – currently the second biggest government outlay at $1.1 trillion – will surpass social security and become the single biggest US expense before the end of 2024 at $1.6 trillion.
·
265.1K Views
Now that rate cuts are off the table, interest on US debt – currently the second biggest government outlay at $1.1 trillion – will surpass social security and become the single biggest US expense before the end of 2024 at $1.6 trillion. pic.twitter.com/OQYjHhOks9
… and hit $1.7 trillion by April 2025, at which point it will be by far the single biggest outlay of the US government.
So where are we now? Well, according to the latest Treasury Monthly Statement, in July the US spent a gross $88.6 billion on debt interest, bringing the YTD total to $956 billion and is on pace to hit $1.157 trillion for the full year.
And putting it in context, the $87 billion in gross interest spending (which follows June’s record $140 billion) was 25% of all US receipts (mostly taxes) in June…
… a staggering number fast approaching the threshold where everyone will be forced to admit the US has crossed into a Minsky moment.
END
This is also a very important read!
(EpochTimes)
Federal Fiscal Burden Consumes 93% Of America’s Wealth
Based on data from a U.S. Treasury report, the federal government has amassed $142 trillion in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations. This staggering figure equals 93 percent of all the wealth Americans have accumulated since the nation’s founding, estimated by the Federal Reserve to be $152 trillion.
Unlike other measures of federal red ink that cover an arbitrary period, extend into the infinite future, or ignore government resources, the figure of $142 trillion applies strictly to Americans who are alive right now and includes the government’s commercial assets. Thus, it quantifies the financial burden that today’s Americans are leaving to their children and future generations.
Complete Versus Incomplete Accounting
Federal law requires the U.S. Treasury to publish an annual report that details the government’s “overall financial position.” In addition to the national debt, the “Financial Report of the United States Government” also includes the government’s explicit and implicit financial commitments, such as:
• unfunded obligations for social insurance programs like Medicare.
Such “fiscal exposures,” as explained by the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), “represent significant commitments that ultimately have to be addressed.” Thus, GAO stresses that ignoring them can “make it difficult for policymakers and the public to adequately understand the government’s overall performance and true financial condition.”
Yet, that is precisely what the media does. Although the Treasury published the report in February, Google News indicates that no major media outlet has mentioned it. Meanwhile, the same outlets have frequently reported on the national debt and federal budget, which are incomplete measures of the federal government’s fiscal situation.
The commonly cited national debt and federal budget are mainly based on cash accounting, which is the simplistic process of counting money as it flows in or out. Thus, liabilities like pension benefits for federal workers aren’t measured until they are actually paid, which is often decades after they are promised.
In contrast, the Treasury report mainly uses accrual accounting, which measures financial commitments as they are made. This is how the federal government requires large corporations to report their finances. In the words of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, which is tasked by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to create private-sector accounting rules, accrual accounting is the “most relevant and reliable” way to measure the financial health of pension plans.
The same applies to other retirement benefits like healthcare. The accounting rule that governs such benefits explains that “a failure to accrue” implies “that no obligation exists prior to the payment of benefits.” Since an obligation does exist, failing to account for it “impairs the usefulness and integrity” of financial statements.
The Grand Total
A methodical tally of accrual accounting data in the Treasury report shows that the federal government has amassed $142 trillion in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations beyond the value of its commercial assets. This reflects the government’s finances at the close of its 2023 fiscal year on Sept. 30, 2023.
The primary components of this burden, which are unpacked below, include:
These figures tally to $147.1 trillion in debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations. Offsetting this is $5.4 trillion in commercial assets owned by the federal government, leaving a grand total shortfall of $141.7 trillion.
Numbers in the trillions are hard to conceive, so it’s revealing to place them in context. The figure of $142 trillion amounts to 93 percent of the net wealth Americans have accumulated since the nation’s founding, estimated by the Federal Reserve to be $152 trillion. This includes all of their assets in savings, real estate, corporate stocks, private businesses, and consumer durable goods like automobiles and furniture.
The government’s $142 trillion shortfall also amounts to:
• $430,252 for every person living in the United States.
• $1,098,087 for every household in the United States.
• 2 times annual U.S. economic output (GDP).
• 30 times annual federal revenues.
Publicly Held Debt
The simplest major item quantified by the Treasury report is the publicly held debt, which is $26.3 trillion. This is the money the federal government owes to non-federal entities like individuals, corporations, state governments, and foreign governments.
Publicly held debt is a partial measure of the national debt that excludes $6.9 trillion the federal government owes to federal programs like Social Security and Medicare. The Treasury report also details these intergovernmental debts and consolidates them with the items below.
Liabilities
Pension and other retirement benefits are a large part of compensation packages for government employees. With these generous benefits included, civilian non-postal federal employees receive an average of 17 percent more total compensation than private-sector workers with comparable education and work experience. Postal workers receive even greater premiums ranging from 25 percent to 43 percent.
In 2022, federal, state, and local governments spent $2.3 trillion on employee compensation, costing each household in the nation an average of $17,299.
The Treasury report shows that the federal government currently owes $14.3 trillion in pensions and other benefits to federal employees and veterans that are not accounted for in the publicly held national debt. To pay the present value of these benefits will require an average of $109,005 from every household in the United States.
The Treasury reports other liabilities of the federal government, such as:
• $124 billion in accounts payable.
• $645 billion in environmental and disposal liabilities.
• $99 billion in insurance and guarantee program liabilities.
Altogether, the Treasury records $16.6 trillion in liabilities that are not accounted for in the publicly held debt.
Social Security & Medicare
A similar but far more expensive situation exists with social insurance programs like Social Security and Medicare. This is because—contrary to popular belief—these programs don’t save workers’ taxes for their retirements. Instead, they immediately spend the vast majority of those taxes to pay benefits to current recipients. Thus, they are called “pay-as-you-go” programs.
In stark contrast, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis explains that “federal law requires private pension plans to operate as funded plans, not as pay-as-you-go plans.” The reasons for this, as explained by the American Academy of Actuaries, are to increase “benefit security” and ensure “intergenerational equity.”
Social Security and Medicare, on the other hand, have levied dramatically increased tax burdens on succeeding generations of Americans, thus creating severe generational inequality. And unless retirement ages are raised or benefits are reduced in some other way, taxes will need to be increased again to keep the programs solvent.
Federal actuaries measure the unfunded obligations of Social Security and Medicare in several different ways, but only one of them approximates accrual accounting. This is called the “closed-group” unfunded obligation, which is the money needed to cover the shortfalls for all current taxpayers and beneficiaries in these programs.
In the words of Harvard Law School professor and federal budget specialist Howell E. Jackson, the closed-group measure “reflects the financial burden or liability being passed on to future generations.” These burdens are $49.8 trillion for Social Security and $53.9 trillion for Medicare. Placing these figures in context:
• Social Security’s unfunded obligations amount to an additional $272,237 from every person who currently pays Social Security payroll taxes.
• Medicare’s unfunded obligations amount to an additional $201,932 from every U.S. resident aged 16 or older.
Those shortfalls are what remain after the federal government has paid back with interest all of the money it has borrowed from Social Security and Medicare.
Social Security and Medicare differ from true pensions because taxpayers don’t have a contractual right to receive these benefits. Nevertheless, paying these benefits is an implied commitment of the federal government, and federal law requires that these programs be included in the Treasury report.
The Treasury report estimates that the combined closed group unfunded obligations of Social Security, Medicare, and some smaller social insurance programs are $104.2 trillion. This figure doesn’t include intergovernmental debt, which is consolidated with other data in the report.
Federal Assets
The Treasury also records the federal government’s commercial assets, such as:
• $922 billion in cash and other monetary assets.
• $1.2 trillion in property, plants, and equipment.
• $1.7 trillion in receivable loans, mainly comprised of student loans.
However, the report doesn’t account for federal stewardship land and heritage assets, such as national parks and the original copy of the Declaration of Independence. While these items have tangible value, the report explains that they “are intended to be preserved as national treasures,” not sold to the highest bidder to cover debts.
In total, the government owned $5.4 trillion in commercial assets at the close of its 2023 fiscal year.
Adding up the federal government’s debts, liabilities, and unfunded obligations and then subtracting the value of its commercial assets yields a fiscal shortfall of $142 trillion.
Root Causes
The first critical step in solving a problem is to understand its root causes. However, scientific surveys show that many voters are misinformed about the root causes of government debt.
A scientific, nationally representative survey commissioned in 2020 by Just Facts found that 25 percent of voters believe the main driver of the rising national debt is military spending. This accords with the reporting of media outlets that frequently blame the debt on military spending.
In reality, military spending has plummeted from 53 percent of all federal expenses in 1960 to 17 percent in 2022:
The same survey found that another 25 percent of voters believe tax cuts were the main driver of debt, in accord with news stories that blame the debt on tax cuts.
In reality, federal revenues have stayed at a roughly level portion of the U.S. economy for the past 80 years:
As shown in the charts above, the primary driver of the national debt is increased spending, particularly on social programs. These programs—which provide healthcare, income security, education, nutrition, housing, and cultural services—have grown from 21 percent of all federal spending in 1960 to 64 percent in 2022.
Yet, only 39 percent of voters correctly identify social spending as the primary cause of rising debt.
Moreover, the vast bulk of the government’s unfunded obligations are due to Social Security and Medicare. Thus, the Congressional Budget Office projects that the main drivers of future debt will be Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, Obamacare, and interest on the national debt. Under the weight of these, the publicly held debt is due to soar to unprecedented levels over coming decades.
Harmful Effects
A broad range of academic publications explain that excessive government debt can cause far-reaching negative outcomes, such as lower wages, increased inflation, weak economic growth, higher taxes, reduced government benefits, or combinations of such results.
Likewise,GAO warns that “the costs of federal borrowing will be borne by tomorrow’s workers and taxpayers,” which “may reduce or slow the growth of the living standards of future generations.”
While some believe the U.S. government can spend and borrow with abandon because it can print money, one of the most established laws of economics is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. The prolific economist William A. McEachern explains why this is so:
“There is no free lunch because all goods and services involve a cost to someone. The lunch may seem free to you, but it draws scarce resources away from the production of other goods and services, and whoever provides a free lunch often expects something in return. A Russian proverb makes a similar point but with a bit more bite: ‘The only place you find free cheese is in a mousetrap.’”
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
end
Again, good indicator for the softness in the economy
(zerohedge)
Producer Price Inflation Slows As Services Costs Slump
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 08:41 AM
Having been resurgent for the last few months, US Producer Price inflation was expected to slow significantly in July and it did, with Headline Final Demand PPI rose just 0.1% MoM (+0.2% exp) which pulled the YoY PPI down from +2.7% to +2.2%…
Source: Bloomberg
Energy prices picked up MoM while Services prices tumbled by the most since March 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Final demand goods: Prices for final demand goods rose 0.6% in July, the largest advance since a 1.1- percent jump in February. Nearly 60 percent of the broad-based increase in July can be traced to the index for final demand energy, which moved up 1.9%. Prices for final demand goods less foods and energy and for final demand foods also rose, 0.2 percent and 0.6 percent, respectively.
Product detail: A quarter of the July rise in the index for final demand goods is attributable to a 2.8-percent advance in prices for gasoline. The indexes for diesel fuel, meats, jet fuel, fresh fruits and melons, and basic organic chemicals also increased. Conversely, prices for electric power decreased 1.1 percent. The indexes for fresh and dry vegetables and for steel mill products also moved down.
Final demand services: Prices for final demand services fell 0.2 percent in July, the largest decrease since moving down 0.2 percent in March 2023. The July decline can be traced to the index for final demand trade services, which dropped 1.3 percent. (Trade indexes measure changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers.) In contrast, prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing and for final demand transportation and warehousing services rose 0.3 percent and 0.4 percent, respectively.
Product detail: Leading the July decline in prices for final demand services, margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling decreased 4.1 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing, automobiles retailing (partial), automotive fuels and lubricants retailing, desktop and portable device application software publishing, and physician care also fell. Conversely, prices for portfolio management advanced 2.3 percent. The indexes for chemicals and allied products wholesaling and for truck transportation of freight also rose.
We would expect portfolio management fees to drop next month as stocks were slammed…
Core (Ex-Food and Energy) was unchanged MoM and plunged from +3.0% to +2.4% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
However, ex-Trade-Services, PPI increased to +3.3% YoY…
Source: Bloomberg
Companies are feeling the squeeze as they eat the difference between CPI and PPI…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly a good sign for profitability.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Unbelievable! With Biden et al giving these bozos everything (subsidies), they failed
(zerohedge)
Another Green Energy Company Declares Bankruptcy, Thank Biden’s Tariffs
The 39-year-old SunPower is the latest solar rooftop business to fail this year. Others include Titan Solar Power and Sunworks. SunPower cited a “severe liquidity crisis caused by a sharp decline in demand in the solar market and SunPower’s inability to obtain new capital.” The IRA boosted solar subsidies, so why has demand fallen?
One reason is higher interest rates have made rooftop panel leasing less attractive to customers. Some states like California have scaled back programs that pay customers to send solar power they don’t use to the grid. Such subsidies raise the cost of power for people who don’t have panels. In California the grid is often overloaded with solar power.
The cost of panels has also increased amid overall inflation and President Biden’s tariffs, which were backed by domestic manufacturers and Democrats in Congress. Solar installers warned the tariffs would hurt their industry, and they have. Jobs that Mr. Biden’s subsidies giveth, his tariffs and inflation taketh.
Offshore wind projects are also getting scratched because of rising costs and interest rates that make them uneconomic even with subsidies. BP last year wrote down its U.S. offshore wind business by $1.1 billion. Wind developer Orsted last autumn announced $4 billion in write-downs after walking away from two projects off the New Jersey coast.
BP recently scaled back a planned U.S. biofuels investment. Shell this year said it would close its hydrogen refueling stations in California as few people are buying fuel-cell vehicles, and subsidies for hydrogen production have fallen. Talk about stranded assets.
Tariffs and Subsidies Backfire
Biden only wants clean energy if it every piece of it is made in the USA. That means higher costs, even with subsidies.
I commented on this in advance as it was easy to see.
The attempt force production of solar panels in the US resulted in prices so high that few wanted them.
Once a bustling site poised to power the electric vehicle revolution, a $2.6 billion battery factory under construction in Lansing, Michigan, now sits at a near standstill, its future frozen as economic headwinds stall its progress.
EV battery maker Ultium Cells, a joint venture between General Motors and LG Energy Solution, placed construction of its facility on hold in July amid sluggish market conditions, namely high interest rates and concerns around EV demand, according to the company. It intends to resume construction once it has a clearer understanding of this outlook, an official from LG Energy Solution told The Korea Herald.
Uncertainty around interest rates is causing many on-hold projects to pile up like water behind a dam, according to Richard Branch, chief economist for Dodge Construction Network. These high rates are especially problematic for projects done in phases, like multibillion-dollar EV plants, where owners need to seek funding to complete each new phase of construction, said David Suchar, a partner at Maslon, a Minneapolis-based law firm.
“Many, if not most, construction megaprojects are undergoing some form of delay these days,” said Suchar, who regularly represents clients in construction. “At the center of the delays are a combination of increased construction material costs and borrowing costs due to high interest rates.”
For example, LG Energy Solution temporarily paused a portion of its $5.5 billion battery manufacturing complex in Queen Creek, Arizona, earlier this summer due to market conditions, according to a company statement shared with Construction Dive. Around the same time in New Hill, North Carolina, Vietnamese EV maker VinFast also delayed the first $2 billion phase of its manufacturing plant until 2028, citing market volatility.
“If you have supply chain issues on one part of the project, that can lead to delays in the project schedule,” said Suchar. “For projects planned in phases over several years with numerous trades involved, you can have a cascading effect.”
In addition, consumer demand for these types of cars has been less than expected. Growth rates around EV sales have decelerated this year, according to data from the International Energy Agency. Carmakers across the board, such as Ford and GM, are slashing production plans amid this demand slowdown.
Good indicator showing that the economy is soft and getting softer
(zerohedge)
Home Depot Slashes Sales, Profit Outlook As Higher Rates “Pressure Demand”
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 08:45 AM
The largest home improvement retailer in the US beat second-quarter earnings and sales expectations but lowered its comparable sales and profit forecasts for the year. This aligns with our ongoing theme of an emerging consumer slowdown.
Here’s a quick look at Home Depot’s second-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Comparable sales -3.3% vs. -2% y/y, estimate -2.39%
US comparable sales -3.6% vs. -2% y/y, estimate -2.63%
Net sales $43.18 billion, +0.6% y/y, estimate $43.79 billion
Adjusted EPS $4.67, estimate $4.52
EPS $4.60 vs. $4.65 y/y
Customer transactions -1.8%
Average ticket sales $88.90, -1.3% y/y
Average ticket -1.3%
Sales per square foot -3.6%
Merchandise inventories $23.06 billion
Total location count 2,340, +0.6% y/y
SG&A expense $7.14 billion, +3.3% y/y
“During the quarter, higher interest rates and greater macro-economic uncertainty pressured consumer demand more broadly, resulting in weaker spend across home improvement projects,” Home Depot CEO Ted Decker wrote in a statement.
The focus is on Home Depot’s full-year outlook. It now expects comparable sales to decrease by 3% to 4% compared to the previous forecast of -1%. This is far worse than the average Wall Street estimate tracked by Bloomberg of -1.65%. It lowered earnings per share for the year to -2% to -4%, down from +1%.
Snapshot of the full-year forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg):
Sees comparable sales -3% to -4%, saw about -1%, estimate -1.65% (Bloomberg Consensus)
Sees sales +2.5% to +3.5%, saw about +1%
Sees operating margin 13.5% to 13.6%, saw about 14.1%
Sees EPS growth -2% to -4%, saw about +1%
Sees adjusted EPS growth -1% to -3%
Here is Goldman’s reaction to earnings:
HD – Weak, As Expected. Will They Also Get a Pass Like Housing Peers?: We think a comp miss and FY comp sales cut was widely expected. It was always going to just be a matter of magnitude and whether or not the stock would get punished for it. Whether fair or not, most housing/big ticket exposed names who cut have acted pretty well on 2Q EPS day, despite many cutting 2H numbers. Ultimately, they did miss the mark slightly here on top-line for the quarter and the guide. Commentary on the call about whether they have seen further deterioration, or just still sluggish trends will be important to watch. Would expect some weakness to start, but expect the move in rates the next couple days to matter just as much for the stock as actual results, if other housing prints are any indication. They beat EPS, with upside from revenue and SG&A. Comps were -3.3% (US was -3.6%) vs Consensus -2.1% and we think the bogey was -3%. They took FY comps down to down 3-4%. They said -3% is where it will be if the demand holds where it is now into 2H. We think they bogey for the guide was down 2-3%.
In an interview with CNBC, CFO Richard McPhail said consumers have been undergoing a “deferral mindset” since the middle of 2023. The reason is straightforward: high mortgage rates have paralyzed the housing market, and elevated inflation and high interest rates, in general, have led households to pull back on spending.
McPhail said, “Pros tell us that, for the first time, their customers aren’t just deferring because of higher financing costs,” adding, “They’re deferring because of a sense of greater uncertainty in the economy.”
“What our customers tell their pros is, ‘Everything I read tells me interest rates will be lower in three to six months,'” the exec said, explaining,” ‘Why would I borrow to finance the project now rather than just wait a few months?'”
Companies heavily exposed to consumers have posted weak results this earnings season and warned about consumer weakness.
Rate traders are currently pricing in as many as four 25bps cuts by the end of the year. The labor market is cooling, and the economy is trending in the wrong direction.
Low/mid-tier consumers have been tapping out in the Biden-Harris economy, plagued with elevated inflation and high interest rates. Many of these folks have depleted savings and maxed out credit cards. The big question is whether lowering interest rates will create a soft economic landing, or if the Fed has already missed the mark.
end
The left and the EU go nuts when Trump is interviewed by Musk on X. Now the truth comes out. Free speech reigns again
(Watson)
X Conversation Between Musk And Trump Generates Over A Billion Views
The conversation was streamed live on X spaces, but had to overcome huge technical issues dues to a sustained DDOS attack on the platform shortly before the stream began.
The attack followed sustained moaning by the dinosaur media, complaining that Trump would be allowed to say “whatever he wants to” by Musk.
Axios’ @sarafischer: “@elonmusk will let Donald Trump speak all of the falsehoods & misinformation that he wants. I mean, he’s not a journalist … Does he want to be fact checking all the information? So I think it‘s just a platform for Trump to come out say whatever he wants.” pic.twitter.com/13w1MVzzGD— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) August 12, 2024
Oh my God, the horror of letting a presidential candidate say what he wants and people being able to hear him without being able to cut away and shut it off.
Why do you think Trump is on there in the first instance?!
Earlier, a Washington Post ‘journalist’ called for the White House to step in and stop the conversation from happening.
The Washington Post’s Cleve Wootson: “One more, @ElonMusk is slated to interview [@realDonaldTrump] tomorrow — tonight on — on @X. I don’t know if the president is going to — feel free to say if he is or not — but I — I think that misinformation on Twitter is not just a campaign… pic.twitter.com/zKxJNF1zbf— Curtis Houck (@CurtisHouck) August 12, 2024
They operate in a tiny bubble and fundamentally cannot fathom that they are not the purveyors of all information on the planet.
The Harris campaign got their best 20 something year old PR intern to type up an anxiety laced post that didn’t address any of the content of the conversation between Musk and Trump, and instead focused on the technical issues as some kind of criticism.
20 something Kamala PR person can’t handle that it wasn’t some sort of staged fawning phone call from a reality show, that there was actual long form substance and real conversation involved, and tech issues because it wasn’t completely fake and staged and re-done until ‘right’ https://t.co/nk6CkZQMme— m o d e r n i t y (@ModernityNews) August 13, 2024
Of course, they’re not used to an organic and substantial longform conversation between people happening, they only understand heavily staged, scripted and produced soundbites that belong in bad reality TV shows that no one watches.
Musk made it clear that Harris is welcome to join him for a conversation.
She likely won’t accept the invitation on to the biggest platform on Earth though because she cannot manage to go more than two minutes off script without looking like a complete clown.
LOL – she’s too dumb and fake to do a real interview.— Catturd ™ (@catturd2) August 13, 2024
The media also ran with the ‘they couldn’t even run a livestream’ talking point.
The knives are out for Elon and Trump.
The media is terrified of the fact that they both left a positive impression on listeners.
That they’re both decent, likable people who only want what’s best.
Lets see CNN or MSNBC trying to run a livestream with millions of listeners while fending off a cyber attack.
Outside of the US, Elon received more threats from the European Union in the form of a letter from Thierry Breton, the current Commissioner for Internal Market of the EU,
Referring directly to the conversation with Trump, Breton stated in no uncertain terms that X has to crack down on “content that promotes hatred, disorder, incitement to violence, or certain instances of disinformation.”
Musk responded with a meme telling Breton to “Fuck your own face.”
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
Woke oriented Paramount, the parent of CBS cuts 15% of its USA workforce, closes TV studio as its traditional TV market slumps
(zerohedge)
Paramount Cuts 15% Of US Workforce, Closes TV Studio, As Traditional TV Market Slumps
TUESDAY, AUG 13, 2024 – 03:20 PM
Paramount, the parent company of CBS News, BET, MTV, Nickelodeon, dozens of local TV stations, and Paramount Pictures, announced in an internal memo from top executives to employees that the first round of job cuts is set to begin.
The multinational media conglomerate in Manhattan plans to reduce its US-based workforce by 15%, or about 2,000 workers, by the end of September. This is troubling news for the company that struggles with migrating one-time TV viewers to its streaming video platform and an even bigger warning that the traditional TV market languishes.
“The industry continues to evolve, and Paramount is at an inflection point where changes must be made to strengthen our business. And while these actions are often difficult, we are confident in our direction forward,” Brian Robbins, the head of Paramount Pictures; George Cheeks, the head of CBS; and Chris McCarthy, the head of Showtime and MTV Entertainment Studios, wrote in an internal memo to employees, first obtained by New York Times.
The there co-CEOs said, “As we continue to advance our plan, we announced on our earnings call last week that we will be reducing our US-based workforce by approximately 15%, focusing on redundant functions and streamlining corporate teams.”
“This process will take place in three phases, starting today and continuing through the end of the year. We expect 90% of these actions to be complete by the end of September,” they added.
TheWall Street Journal noted, “Paramount Television Studios is shutting down this week as part of a cost-cutting effort by parent company Paramount Global.”
Last week, during an earnings call, Paramount’s top executives said the company would incur $300 million to $400 million in charges related to the restructuring. It also took a second-quarter impairment charge of $5.98 billion across its cable networks.
Variety provided more color on Paramount’s struggles:
Paramount is one of several big U.S. media companies struggling with the migration of one-time TV viewers to streaming video. While the company owns the big CBS broadcast network, home to many of its big-audience sports properties, the bulk of the Paramount portfolio is centered around a cluster of cable networks that only show a few original programs and have seen the communities that once clustered around them dissipate over the past decade.
Did going ‘woke’ have something to do with Paramount’s demise?
The layoffs come as other major media players, such as Warner Bros. Discovery, the parent of CNN, TNT, and HBO, announced layoffs in mid-July. Just weeks ago, Disney cut 140 employees, or 2% of its workforce, in the television division. In news media, the cuts are worsening by month, with Axios laying off 10% of its employees in recent days.
Meanwhile, the emergence of X, the world’s news platform, is becoming the status quo in how people retrieve information, mostly free from government and corporate media censorship.
The U.S. Postal Service’s expedited package shipping services have seen a steep drop in demand, according to quarterly results released Thursday.
The agency weathered a 40.7% decline in Priority Mail Services volume year over year for the third quarter of fiscal year 2024, which ended June 30.
The category includes shipments for Priority Mail, which offers delivery in one-to-three business days, and Priority Mail Express shipments, providing delivery in one to two days with a money-back guarantee.
“Our Priority Mail Services subcategory can be more price sensitive than other services and it continues to face intense competition from more affordable products and an industry-wide trend away from expedited products,” the Postal Service said in its quarterly report.
Shippers are embracing slower parcel delivery services to save on shipping costs, a choice that’s easier to make as they move inventory closer to end consumers and carriers improve transit times within their ground transportation networks.
UPS is seeing shippers “trade down” from speedy air transportation to more cost-effective options like its SurePost product, which utilizes the Postal Service for final-mile delivery, CFO Brian Dykes told analysts during a July earnings call.
FedEx’s international customers are also opting for slower deferred services more often, tied in part to growth from e-commerce shippers that tend to utilize those offerings, President and CEO Raj Subramaniam said on a March earnings call.
The Postal Service is seeing this market shift play out within its own network.
More economical products like USPS Ground Advantage fared better for the Postal Service in Q3, leading to a 2.7% overall increase in volume within the agency’s Shipping and Packages category.
“USPS Ground Advantage, the Postal Service’s shipping offering which provides a simple, reliable, and more affordable way to ship packages, has continued to experience wide adoption and growth in the marketplace,” the agency said in a news release about the Q3 results.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
NEWT GINGRICH
SWAMP NEWS
Sen. Grassley Questions Immigration Parole For New Alleged Trump Assassination Plotter
Sen. Charles Grassley (R-Iowa) posed a series of questions to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) seeking clarity on the recent arrest of a Pakistani national regarding his attempts to assassinate high-ranking U.S. government officials, allegedly including former President Donald Trump, in light of the fact that he was flagged on a federal watchlist and recently granted immigration parole.
The alleged Pakistani plotter, Asif Raza Merchant, 46, was apprehended on July 12, 2024, when he attempted to leave the United States. Currently in federal custody in New York, Merchant’s plot was foiled when he allegedly conspired with undercover agents, who posed as assassins, to attempt to murder high-ranking U.S. citizens.
The alleged scheme was conducted as part of a larger Iranian ploy to retaliate against the killing of General Qasem Soleimani, Attorney General Merrick B. Garland said, according to an Aug. 6 Justice Department (DOJ) statement that revealed the incident. Soleimani was taken down in 2020 during the Trump administration for aiming to blow up the U.S. Embassy in Iraq.
On Aug. 9, Grassley wrote a letter to DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas asking him for more information regarding Merchant’s immigration parole status. Citing media reports, Grassley said that Merchant was interviewed by the Joint Terrorism Task Force upon his arrival in the United States on April 13 because he was flagged in the federal database as a “Lookout Qualified Person of Interest.”
Despite this, Merchant was granted Significant Public Benefit Parole on April 13 by the DHS, which he overstayed after it expired on May 11, Grassley said. He asked the DHS to provide answers to the following:
Did the DHS grant Merchant Significant Public Benefit Parole before or after his placement on the terrorist watchlist and being listed as a “Lookout Qualified Person of Interest”?
On what basis was Merchant granted Significant Public Benefit Parole?
Provide the entire Alien Registration File (A-File) for Asif Raza Merchant.
How many individuals on the Terrorist Screening Database have DHS granted parole and allowed entry into the United States?
Following Merchant’s arrest, Garland said, “The Justice Department will spare no resource to disrupt and hold accountable those who would seek to carry out Iran’s lethal plotting against American citizens and will not tolerate attempts by an authoritarian regime to target American public officials and endanger America’s national security.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray said of the incident: “This dangerous murder-for-hire plot exposed in today’s complaint allegedly was orchestrated by a Pakistani national with close ties to Iran and is straight out of the Iranian playbook.
“A foreign-directed plot to kill a public official, or any U.S. citizen, is a threat to our national security and will be met with the full might and resources of the FBI.”
Assassination Attempts on Trump
The Pakistani national’s plan to assassinate Trump has not been confirmed by federal agencies. The Epoch Times reached out to the DHS and the DOJ for comment regarding the issue. The FBI declined to comment.
According to court documents, Merchant’s plot involved “three different criminal schemes: (1) stealing documents or USB drives from a target’s home; (2) planning a protest; and (3) killing a politician or government official.”
Merchant told the confidential source, an undercover agent, that “trusted” people would be needed to conduct the killing and perform protests after the incident as a distraction, and that they would need “a woman to do ‘reconnaissance.’”
Merchant paid the agent an advance sum of $5,000 to hire hitmen and told him that the final plans would be revealed after Merchant left the country.
He was subsequently arrested on July 12, a day before Trump was shot in the ear in an assassination attempt during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania.
“The failure of the Secret Service in Butler, Pennsylvania, is even more outrageous in light of suspected Iranian-backed assassins targeting former Trump Administration officials, including President Trump himself. That day, the threat of sniper attacks was even higher than normal,” House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Mike Turner (R-Ohio) said in a statement after the DOJ unsealed its charges against Merchant.
“I was previously briefed concerning the Iranian threat and the circumstances of Mr. Merchant’s arrest and questioned then-Secret Service Director Kimberly Cheatle on whether she had reviewed the intelligence concerning the Iranian threat. She confirmed to me that she read the intelligence and was aware of this Iranian murder-for-hire plot.”
KING REPORT
The King Report August 13, 2024 Issue 7304
Independent View of the News
ESUs had a sudden drop 10 minutes after the Sunday night opening, probably on reports that the US was moving assets to the Middle East to thwart a suspected Iran attack. After hitting 5350.25 at 18:14 ET, ESUs had a plodding sawtooth rally that hit a peak of 5389.50 at 8:28 ET. ESUs then rolled over. Two minutes after the NYSE opening, ESUs tumbled. They hit a daily low of 5347.75 at 9:55 ET.
But the entity that wants to keep stocks from declining appeared. Someone manipulated ESUs to a daily high of 5396.75 at 11:02 ET. This is not organic buying. Institutions do not, and most cannot buy, this way. This was purely Impact Trading, a euphemism for manipulation.
Nevertheless, selling for the Old World close appeared; ESUs tumbled to 5357.50 at 11:26 ET.
During early US trading, Mag 7 stocks led the rally. The most effective and efficient way to boost the stock market is to manipulate ESUs and a few Mag 7 stocks.
After the late morning drop, someone once again jerked ESUs higher. After being forced to 5390.25 at 12:02 ET, ESUs sank to 5359.50 at 13:00 ET. Someone jerked ESUs up to 5381.50 at 13:21 ET. Sellers returned, ESUs dropped to 5356.25.00 at 13:52 ET. ESUs then traipsed higher for the expected last-hour manipulation. ESUs then traded in a tight range until they broke lower after 15:35 ET.
After falling to 5356.25 at 15:53 ET, you knew what was next! Someone pushed ESUs to 5375.25 at 16:00 ET. There has been relentless manipulation to keep selling from gaining critical mass.
We are NOT forecasting a crash. However, as we have stated over the past month or so, the conditions (ebbing economy, Fed rate cut hope, AI bubble, manic rotation into laggards, and nerve-racking volatility) are present. Anyone around in the summer of 1987 will recall the wicked volatility that appeared due to the automation of program trading (S&P 500 futures arbitrage vs. a basket of stocks).
In John Kenneth Galbraith’s excellent The Great Crash of 1929, the esteemed Harvard professor vividly delineates the manipulation and its resultant volatility of the months before the 1929 Crash.
@jameslavish: Why is the market seemingly suddenly so obsessed with unemployment? Look at this chart to see how, once unemployment begins to tick higher, the momentum that carries the economy into recession is virtually impossible to stop.https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1823001207977529808
@GRDecter: U.S. Chapter 11 bankruptcies are SOARING: Total filings +34% YoY in first half of 2024 ;Small business filings up +61% YoY; June saw the highest corporate bankruptcies since 2020. Small and mid-sized businesses, especially in consumer discretionary sectors like clothing stores and car dealerships, are struggling to survive… https://x.com/GRDecter/status/1823005163403018299
Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied on what appeared to be defensive asset allocation. Fangs rallied sharply early and pulled the general market with them.
Negative aspects of previous session Blatant manipulation is keeping stocks from another “Kamala Crash” (DJT’s recent talking point) There has been persisting selling in equities; and it appears to be organic. The US moved assets, including the USS Georgia, a guided missile submarine to the Mediterranean. Despite the manipulation, the DJIA declined 140.53 and the DJTA fell 85.83. Gasoline and oil soared on Iran-Israel
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Who keeps manipulating ESUs and NQUs? Who needs to protect the stock market?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5346.65 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5371.20; 5324.37
WSJ Editorial Board: The Dangerous New Iranian Nuclear Reality (Good thing we have Kamala!) Tehran is so far along that a breakout to a bomb could come at any time. That’s the conclusion of a new report by veteran nuclear inspector David Albright and fellow researcher Sarah Burkhard at the Institute for Science and International Security. Both are highly regarded and fact-based analysts… “Iran can now ironically break out quickly, in days, using only its deeply buried Fordow facility,” the report says…“If the U.S. is serious about its goal to stop Iran from having a nuclear weapon, detecting nuclear weaponization activities is increasingly significant as a trigger to act.”… https://www.wsj.com/opinion/iran-nuclear-bomb-report-institute-for-science-and-international-security-david-albright-sarah-burkhard-5215b2be?st=ba11adunw74yyip
The EU is trying to interfere in the US Election! EU Commissaire Thiery Breton is miffed that Elon Musk will interview Trump on Monday night. You’d think that Thiery would be more concerned with Old Europe’s descent into… But EU solons crave globalism because it makes them relevant. They labor under the delusion that they still rule the world and can dictate laws and norms to others. They detest and fear Trump because his populism is an existential threat to them/ the EU ruling class.
@ThierryBreton: With great audience comes greater responsibility. As there is a risk of amplification of potentially harmful content in EU in connection with events with major audience around the world, I sent this letter to @elonmusk. https://x.com/ThierryBreton/status/1823033048109367549 (This effete clown is concerned about Trump and harmful content while rape and violent crimes are soaring in Europe due to unchecked immigration.) @elonmusk: To be honest, I really wanted to respond with this (profane)Tropic Thunder meme, but I would NEVER do something so rude & irresponsible!https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1823076043017630114
@KeenanPeachy: The EU is literally threatening the arrest Elon for domestic terror by…. interviewing a former president.
“For a nation that is afraid to let its people judge the truth and falsehood in an open market is a nation that is afraid of its people.” — JFK
White House: Kamala Harris and Biden have ‘no daylight’ in their policieshttps://trib.al/x2bQxbv
Today – Investor and professional traders’ concern about today’s July PPI, tomorrow’s CPI, Iran-Israel, and a US recession stymied ESU upward manipulation and the expected Monday Rally.
PPI will impact the markets early. Thereafter, the absence or presence of defensive asset allocators and the entity (or entities) that have been manipulating ESUs higher will dictate trading. Be very, very careful! There appears to be a big game being played to keep stocks from sinking.
If stocks are up smartly into the late afternoon, be alert for liquidation ahead of the July CPI Report that is due tomorrow. PS – In recent rallies, Trump has claimed that there will be a 1929-like Crashif Kamala wins. He also repeatedly referred to recent stock market turmoil as the “Kamala Crash.”
Expected economic data: July NFIB Small Business Optimism 91.5; July PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.3% y/y; Core PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.7% y/y; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 13:15 ET
NQUs are -1.25; ESUs are -1.75; and USUs are -1/32 at 20:25 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5449; 100-day MA: 5314; 150-day MA: 5203; 200-day MA: 5038 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,492; 100-day MA: 39,185; 150-day MA: 38,941; 200-day MA: 38,116 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5344.39 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5628.97 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5486.65 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5308.27 triggers a sell signal
@CortesSteve: Wow. Kamala Harris is an open borders Marxist: Voter: “When you become president, would you be committed to close the immigration detention centers?” Kamala: “Absolutely, on day one. On day one.” https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1823129200225599573
@VDHanson: The left accepts the reality that an infirm Biden might not be able to finish out his remaining six months. Yet it still cannot decide whether the nation’s exposure to a President Harris prior to November 5 would lend her the advantage of incumbency or (more likely) ensure her defeat given global exposure to her puerility.
Our Three Silent Mice – Victor David Hanson The vanishing Biden… is rarely seen, more rarely heard, even as Iran has promised a theater-wide war against Israel, Putin has more frequently threatened to escalate Russian attacks to existential levels, and the economy has witnessed dramatic stock shocks, dismal job news, and increasing talk of an impending recession… Rumors swirled that a depressed, embittered, and unwell Biden was in seclusion licking his wounds, acidic over being betrayed by his erstwhile allies—the Obamas, former speaker Nancy Pelosi, Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer, the left-wing squad, a traditionally obsequious and in-the-tank left-wing media, and perhaps his replacement, the machinating Vice President Kamala Harris… The next six months may be the most dangerous in our modern history. Key geostrategic decisions concerning an opportunistic world eager to fill the widening American void will be made by whom, if anyone, and in what manner?… Harris has been instructed to xerox the successful tripartite model of the 2020 Biden victory: One, keep the incoherent and cackling Harris away from the public and journalists, and ration even her teleprompted and staged speeches. Two, erase 30 years of left-wing demagoguery and socialist activism. Replace her radical chic with faux-centralism of the ol’ Joe Biden from Scranton sort… https://victorhanson.com/our-three-silent-mice/
@PollWatch2020: In 2020 for WISCONSIN, the NYT/Siena Poll had Biden +11%. The final result was Biden +0.7% for a polling miss on the Dem side of 10%. (Trafalgar had Biden +0.7, perfect prediction)
@TrumpWarRoom: Eric Holder’s vetting of Walz was clearly fast…and now everyone is furious! He should stick to what he’s good at…gun running to Mexican Cartels!
@TVNewsNow: Fox News’ @HowardKurtz: ‘Will Walz now be ordered to avoid the press like KamalaHarris? Today, for example, JD Vance is on 3 different Sunday shows, and Walz hasn’t taken a single question from the press.’https://x.com/TVNewsNow/status/1822657721566474737
@JordanSchachtel: President Biden’s public schedule the last four days: 1) Vacation at beach house; 2) Vacation at beach house; 3) Vacation at beach house; 4) Back to White House, but no public events. So… vacation in DC?https://t.co/YK9OXWtJDB
@susancrabtree: EXCLUSIVE: A Secret Service special agent partially responsible for developing the plan to secure the rally where former President Trump was nearly assassinated is under internal agency investigation for POSTING VIDEOS AND PHOTOS FROM HER PROTECTIVE ASSIGNMENTS TO SOCIAL MEDIA, according to several sources within the Secret Service community. The female agent served as the official site agent for the July 13 event in Butler, Pennsylvania, that ended in an assassination attempt that nearly killed Trump and the murder of rallygoer Corey Comperatore in front of his family. RealClearPolitics is not naming the agent out of concern for her personal safety. (More on USSS chaos and venality in ensuing link)
@libsoftiktok: Hahaha Chuck Schumer got OWNED at the Dominican Day Parade in NYC yesterday “You know Dominicans actually hate your guts cuz you’re a scumbag. You ruined New York! You’re a loser!” (To Chuckie’s face!) https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1823026155945070978
@elonmusk: There appears to be a massive DDOS attack on X (to stop DJT conversation). Working on shutting it down. Worst case, we will proceed with a smaller number of live listeners and post the conversation later.
harveyorganblog.com 
