AUGUST 22/ANOTHER ORCHESTRATE FRBNY RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS: GOLD CLOSED DOWN $28.90 TO $2481.10.SILVER CLOSED DOWN 44 CENTS TOI $29.05//PLATINUM CLOSED DOWN $18.85 TO $949.60 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $12.15 TO $939.90//EU TO USE ALL OF RUSSIAN FROZEN ASSETS WHICH WILL THOROUGH ANNOY RUSSIA AGAIN/ISRAEL VS HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY REPORTS//SLAY NEWS/CANADA NOW HAS A RAILWAY STRIKE WHICH WILL DAMAGE INDUSTRY//USA DATA: JOBLESSS RATE AT 33 MONTH HIGHS AND MGF PMI PLUMMETS AGAIN/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 40 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 15 661 C JP MORGAN 48 726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 20 1 880 H CITIGROUP 96 905 C ADM 12 17 991 H CME 104
TOTAL: 177 177
JPMorgan stopped 0/177
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 177 NOTICES FOR 17,700 OZ or 0.5505 TONNES
total notices so far: 21,893 contracts for 2,189,300 Oz (68.096 tonnes)
FOR AUGUST:
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 862 for 4,310,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.44 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.913 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/
// INVENTORY AT 467.431 MILLION OZ/
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.431 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 344 CONTRACTS TO 146,642 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH SOME LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.03 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE DESPITE THE FACT THAT WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 244 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD AGAIN SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD ZERO COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD ANOTHER SMALL 100 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG 419 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST 244 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 419 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.03) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A VERY SMALL LOSS OF 27 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH ALL OF THAT LOSS DUE TO SPREADER/TAS LIQUIDATION.
WE HAD A SMALL 100 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 4.570 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 4.570 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 419 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 217 CONTRACTS//
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 DAYS, total 14,640 contracts: OR 73.2 MILLION OZ (915 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 73.200 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 73.200 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
RESULT: WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 127 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 100 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 3.005 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR AUG 4.560 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 244 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 419 CONTRACTS,//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR A PORTION OF THE SMALL COMEX OI LOSS//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (419) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1168 OI CONTRACTS TO 531,699 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 1985 CONTRACTS
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1168 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $1.80 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7300 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS FINALLY GUYS ARE STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 68.590 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $1.80 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 704 OI CONTRACTS (2.189 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1872 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 531,699
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 704 CONTRACTS WITH 1168 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1872 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2684 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1307 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1872 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 1168 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 704 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7300 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS THESE BOYS JUMP THE QUEUE TO STAND AT THE COMEX./
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /AUGUST 68.5909 TONNES.
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1307 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 76,403 CONTRACTS OF 7,640,300 OZ OR 237,64 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4775 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 237.64 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 237.64 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 237.64 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 344 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,642 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 100 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 100 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 100 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 344 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 100 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 244 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 1.27 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.03 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.812 PTS OR 0.27% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 249.99 PTS OR 1.44% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 259,21 OR .68%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.29%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,1388 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1375/ Oil DOWN TO 72.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 76,51 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1168 CONTRACTS TO 531,699 DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.80 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS AGAIN PANICKED BIG TIME THROUGHOUT THE SESSION AND COVERED WHAT THEY COULD EVAN AT LOWER PRICES. THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 148 TONNES+ OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024.
OUR LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AND THIS WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A GOOD T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S SLIGHT LOSS IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1872 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC1872 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1872 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 704 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1872 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 1168 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $1.80/WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1307 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON LAST FRIDAY’S HUGE TRADING DAY.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: AUGUST (68.5909 TONNES)
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 68.5909 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $1.80 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY/COMEX.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 2.189 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 68.5909 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 68.5909 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $1.80
WE HAVE REMOVED 1985 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 704 CONTRACTS OR 70400 OZ (2.189
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
21893 notices 2,189,300 oz 68.096 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 2
i) Out of HSBC 42,632.226 oz
ii) Out of Manfra” 6944.666 oz (216 kilobars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 49,576.842 oz 1.54 tonnes
adjustments: 1/ DEALER TO CUSTOMER
a) Manfra 18,032.362 oz
total oz moved out of registered to eligible; 58,760.927 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST
For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 336 contracts having LOST 68 contracts.
We had 141 contracts served on WEDNESDAY so we gained an additional 73 contracts or 7300 oz will stand for gold at the comex
SEPT. LOST 30 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5559 CONTRACTS.
OCTOBER LOST 317 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 54,670 CONTRACTS
We had 177 contracts filed for today representing 17700 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 48 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 77 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (21,893) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of August 336( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (177 x 100 oz per contract( equals 2,205,200 OZ OR 68.5909 TONNES. Somebody was in great need of physical gold on this side of the pond today
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month: No of notices filed so far (21,893 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST (336 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (177) x 100 oz which equals 2,205,200 oz (68.5909 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 68.5909 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,259,313,949 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,788,835.885 ( 242.26 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,470,475.064 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,041,112 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 187.90tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
AUGUST 22/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE AUG 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,268,817.108 OZ Ashai Delaware
HSBC
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1042,761.540 oz
ASAHI Delaware HSBC
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
50 contracts (0.250 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
862 Contracts (4.310 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 customer deposits:
i)Into Loomis: 483,460.400 oz
ii) Into Delaware 945.54 oz
iii) Into ASHAI 608,355.600 oz
total customer deposit 1042,761.540 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.771million oz/306.332 million or 44.07%
adjustment:0
withdrawals: 3
i)Out of ASAHI 601,649.100 oz
ii)Out of Delaware 587m129.468 OZ
III) OUT OF HSBC 80,038.54 OZ
total customer withdrawals: 714,420.700 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.805 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.332 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 50 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 15 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 15 NOTICES SERVED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTs OR AN ADDITIONAL 0 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX.
SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 3656 CONTRACTS TO 47,441. SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 55 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 676 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 66,226 strong
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 862 x 5,000 oz = 4.310 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 50) and the number of notices served upon today 0 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month: 862 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (50)x number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST contract month equates to 4.570 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 4.570 million oz.
There are 69.904 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNESA
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES
AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES
JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES
JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES
JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES
JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES
JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 866.70 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ
JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ
JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ
JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ
JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ
JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.
CLOSING INVENTORY 467.433 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
This is going to be a huge mine when it goes into production
(Barker/GATA)
‘World’s largest undeveloped gold project’ hits milestone in northwest B.C
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-08-21 16:53 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Thom Barker Ashcroft-Cache Creek Journal, Ashcroft, British Columbia, Canada Wednesday, August 21, 2024
It has been a banner few weeks for Seabridge Gold lately in northwestern British Columbia.
In late July, the company announced the Environmental Assessment Office had designated its flagship KSM project as “substantially started,” well in advance of its deadline.
The substantially started status makes the company’s Environmental Assessment Certificate permanent. It has been set to expire in July 2026 if Seabridge had not achieved the designation.
“This is a significant regulatory milestone for the KSM Project, positioning it to become a multigenerational economic anchor for northwestern B.C.,” said Rudi Fronk, Seabridge chair and chief executive officer.
In a press release, the company said it has spent has spent more than $1 billion since acquiring the KSM Project in 2001, of which more than $800 million was to advance the project to substantially started after KSM’s environmental assessment certificate was issued in July 2014.
The company claims that KSM, located 65 kilometres from Stewart, is the world’s largest undeveloped gold property with 88.7 million ounces of measured and indicated gold plus 71.5 million ounces inferred. The deposit also holds 19.46 billion pounds of copper resources in the measured and indicated categories plus 38.5 billion pounds in the inferred category.
Seabridge estimates when the mine goes into production, it will operate for 52 years. …
As the rich snap up gold bars, storage vaults brace for business
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-08-21 12:12 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Sybilla Gross and Yvonne Yue Li Bloomberg News Tuesday, August 20, 2024
Encased in sleek onyx, an enormous vault for storing precious metal soars some 32 meters (105 feet) above Singapore’s Changi Airport. For a facility that deals in secrecy and privacy, its sheer mass makes a loud statement about the sudden popularity of owning physical bullion.
The Reserve opened last month to cater to increased demand from the world’s uber wealthy for high-security storage. The six-story warehouse is designed to hold 10,000 tons of silver, more than a third of global annual supply, and 500 tons of gold — equivalent to about half of what central banks purchased in 2023.
Silver Bullion Pte Ltd. built the 180,000 square foot (16,700 square meters) facility, which it says is one of the largest in the world, after its previous vault ran out of space. Already it’s flush with inquiries from customers, it says. …
The Israel Diamond Exchange has reported a drop in its exports and membership in 2024, according to Israel media outlet Ynet news.
The exchange president, Nissim Zuaretz, said that for the first time in its history, the annual number of retirees has exceeded the exchange’s new members. “In the best years of the industry, we received 200 new members a year, in the past year only 30,” Zuaretz said.
The Israel Diamond Exchange, in the city of Ramat Gan, is the world’s largest, encompassing about 3,100 members. The country is the fifth largest global exporter of cut and uncut diamonds.
In 2024, Israel’s net exports of rough diamonds saw a six percent decrease compared to the same period in 2023, while the export of polished diamonds in the first seven months of 2024 dropped by 33 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2023.
In July 2024 alone, exports decreased by almost half compared to the previous year.
In February, the former Diamond Exchange president, Boaz Moldawsky, cited Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza and a global downturn that predated 7 October as factors driving the slump.
He said that in the weeks following October 7, the diamond market in Israel was “completely paralyzed,” but that it then returned to normal operations.
However, amid Israel’s ongoing Gaza war, buyers stopped visiting Israel, with the annual International Diamond Week in Israel, scheduled for early April, cancelled.
But according to the Rapaport Group, the slump is mainly driven by a slowdown in sales to the US and China, and collapsing diamond prices in 2023, which tumbled about 20 percent due to slowing consumer demand.
Moldawsky estimated that 80 percent of the trade’s difficulties were due to the global slump, and 20 percent to the war on Gaza.
end
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.812 PTS OR 0.27% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 249.99 PTS OR 1.44% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 259,21 OR .68%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.29%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,1388 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1375/ Oil DOWN TO 72.32 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 76,51 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGSTHURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1388
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1375
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.81 PTS OR 0.27 %
HANG SENG CLOSED UP 249,99 PTS OR 1.44%
2. Nikkei closed UP 259.21 PTS OR .68%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 101.23 EURO FALLS TO 1.1133 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.885 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.04…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE REIGNITING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE:DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2290/Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.588 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.0290%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.257
3j Gold at $2500.50//Silver at: 29.50 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 36/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.18
3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.64/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.885 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8521 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9488 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.838 UP 6 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.100 UP 5 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.966 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.93…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.9724 UP 8 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.065 UP 5 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Global Stocks Hit All Time High With J-Hole Expected To Preannounce Rate Cuts
THURSDAY, AUG 22, 2024 – 08:15 AM
Just over two weeks after the VIX almost touched 70, the market’s freakout is completely forgotten as futures continue rising and a global gauge of stocks approached a record high as traders are now convinced the Fed will deliver its first interest-rate cuts in more than four years, which will take place with both stock and housing prices at all time highs. One can only imagine what happens next. The MSCI’s All Country World index ticked up 0.1%, trading near its all-time record close on July 16. As of 7:45am, S&P futures were 0.2% higher with the index on pace to be up 10 of the past 11 days, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.3%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.5% as Deutsche Bank AG rallied after predicting a boost to third-quarter results. US futures edged higher. The Bloomberg dollar index is up after rebounding from a 5 month low, while 10Y TSY yields are higher by 3bps to 3.83% after dropping 4 days. Oil is also higher after tumbling to the lowest price of 2024 yesterday. The macro calendar is busy with Initial and jobless claims, Chicago Fed and and existing home sales for July. The Jackson Hole symposium begins tonight with Powell’s highly expected speech due tomorrow at 10am.
In premarket trading, Charles Schwab shares fall 4.3% after Toronto-Dominion Bank has raised $2.5 billion in pricing the sale of Schwab shares at $61.65 each. Paramount Global shares rose 3.7% after media investor Edgar Bronfman Jr. raised his offer to take control of thee CBS parent to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg News. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Canadian Solar shares slip 4.2% after the company forecast revenue for the third quarter; the guidance missed the average analyst estimate.
Estee Lauder shares rise 2.3% after an upgrade to overweight at Piper Sandler.
SentinelOne shares rise 3.4% after an upgrade to overweight at Wells Fargo.
Snowflake shares drop 9.6% after the software company reported its second-quarter results and gave an outlook. While the results beat expectations on key metrics, analysts flagged some concerns.
Sprout Social shares slip 3.2% after receives its first ever sell-equivalent rating since its initial public offering in December 2019, after KeyBanc Capital Markets cut the company to underweight from sector weight and set a new Street low price target.
Synopsys shares rise 2.4% after the electronic design automation software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
Urban Outfitters shares fall 11% after the apparel retailer reported second-quarter comparable retail segment sales growth that missed Wall Street expectations.
Zoom Video Communications shares rise 3.5% after the video-conferencing software company reported second-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast as new AI and contact centers products continue to deliver. It also announced that CFO Kelly Steckelberg would resign.
Expectations for US rate cuts have completely erased the market slump at the start of August that was sparked by recession fears in the US and a rapid unwind of the yen carry trade. Now, investors are focused on Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole economic symposium on Friday for further evidence a September cut is coming, but even without it, about 100 basis points of easing are already priced in this year after some -818,000 payroll revisions reinforced the case for lower rates.
“We’ve been long Treasuries for a week now — it’s quiet and yields can grind lower from here,” said Matt Amis, investment director at Abrdn Investment Management Ltd. “Jackson Hole is obviously all the market is waiting for. Powell is desperate to cut, we don’t see why he would want to push back on current market pricing for September.”
The Stoxx 600 rises 0.6%, led by retail and travel names. Retail is the strongest-performing sector, wihle basic resources stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the most notable European movers:
CTS Eventim shares rise 11% to an intraday record after the German events company’s first-half revenue beat estimates. The firm now expects significantly higher Ebitda and revenue for its ticketing segment compared with last year.
Swiss Re advances as much as 3.8%, the most since May, after the Swiss insurance group reported first-half earnings where all its divisions outperformed expectations. Vontobel expects Swiss Re to surpass its FY guidance this year, bar any major large claims.
JD Sports shares rise as much as 6.3% to hit their highest level since early June after the UK clothing retailer reassured investors with sales growth and increasing market share at a tough time for the broader retail space, according to analysts at Peel Hunt.
Swiss Prime shares rise as much as 2.6% to hit their highest level since June 2022 after the real estate investor reported strong rental income growth, record-low vacancy rates, an improved valuation for its portfolio and a rosier outlook, according to analysts. The stock is trading at its highest level since June 2022.
Bavarian Nordic shares rise as much as 13% after the Danish company forecast reaching the top end of its full-year guidance range following an order for its smallpox/mpox vaccine from a European country. Analysts see consensus expectations being increased for the year.
HelloFresh shares rise as much as 8.5%, hitting the highest intraday level since March, after activist investor Active Ownership disclosed a stake.
Meko gains as much as 13%, the most since May 2022, after the Swedish automotive parts retailer reported stronger-than-expected earnings, with operating income 41% ahead of Bloomberg-compiled consensus expectations.
PKO Bank Polski shares gain as much as 3% after Poland’s biggest lender reported 2Q earnings beat on interest income that rose 15% Y/y despite fresh charges on mortgage moratoriums. Analysts praise also further reduction of cost of risk and see that PKO has potential to maintain high profits in the coming quarters.
Aegon shares drop as much as 6.7% after the insurer’s first-half operating profit dropped on charges booked after the insurer updated its mortality assumptions. Analysts say this is a negative, but highlight underlying results were solid and that guidance has been reiterated.
GN Store Nord shares drop as much as 10%, the most since August 2023, after the Danish hearing-aid and audio equipment firm reported weaker-than-expected earnings for the second quarter. Morgan Stanley analysts see “modest trims” to consensus estimates for the year.
Orlen, Poland’s largest energy company, falls as much as 2.8% after it reported net loss in 2Q due to 6.3b zloty charges to finance the country’s household energy price caps. Analysts see Orlen’s plan to cut capex as well as rising profits from electricity segment as a positive signal.
Instalco falls as much as 12%, the most since November 2022, after the Swedish electrical installations group reported its latest earnings, showing an organic contraction in the quarter of 6.4% vs. 5.5% growth a year earlier.
European data showed a mixed picture for the region’s economy, despite a surprise boost from the Paris Olympics. French services expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, while in Germany a composite PMI added to evidence that the country’s recovery has fizzled out. Britain’s private sector companies reported their strongest growth in four months alongside cooling price pressures. In company news, shares of Deutsche Bank jumped more than 3%. The lender said it expects a €430 million ($479 million) boost to pretax profit in the third quarter after reaching agreements with more than 80 plaintiffs in a long-running dispute.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks eked out small gains. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.4% after fluctuating in early trading. Tencent contributed the most to the gauge’s increase, while AIA Group also surged after the insurer’s new business value jumped to a record in the first half of the year. Equities in Hong Kong led the gains in the region, as several major companies including Xiaomi reported upbeat results. Those in the Philippines and Japan also advanced, partly helped by expectations of US rate cuts, which may provide support to shares ranging from technology companies to machinery makers. Indonesia and Taiwan markets declined. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, meanwhile, faces intense market scrutiny on Friday when he speaks to lawmakers, after the central bank’s hawkish signals contributed to the global market turmoil earlier this month.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1% while the Japanese yen falls 0.3%; the pound has risen to the top of the G-10 FX pile, climbing 0.2% against the dollar after UK manufacturing and service PMIs topped estimates. The euro falls 0.1% after more mixed readings from the bloc – manufacturing was weak but services outperformed, in part due to the Paris Olympics.
In rates, treasuries are under pressure in early US trading with the yield curve flatter as front-end yields are about 3bp higher on the day. US rates track a bigger selloff in core European bond markets sparked by August preliminary PMIs for France, Germany and euro-zone. Treasury yields are cheaper by at least 2bp across the curve with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by about 1bp on the day; 10-year is around 3.82% with comparable bunds and gilts cheaper by an additional 1.7bp and 1.5bp. German government bonds are lower and didn’t show much reaction to a slowdown in euro-zone wage growth in the second quarter.
In commodities, oil prices are little changed, with WTI near $72 a barrel. Spot gold drops $8 to around $2,504/oz.
Bitcoin is flat and holds just beneath USD 61k, with Ethereum also rangebound just above USD 2.6k.
Looking at today’s calendar, the economic data includes July Chicago Fed national activity index and initial jobless claims (8:30am), August preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am), July existing home sales (10am) and August Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate empty for the session
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,645.75
MXAP up 0.3% to 185.14
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 575.40
Nikkei up 0.7% to 38,211.01
Topix up 0.2% to 2,671.40
Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 17,641.00
Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 2,848.77
Sensex up 0.2% to 81,091.03
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.2% to 8,026.96
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,707.67
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 516.16
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.22%
Euro little changed at $1.1148
Brent Futures little changed at $76.12/bbl
Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,503.09
US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 101.17
Top Overnight News
At least three banks managed to obtain key payroll numbers Wednesday while the rest of Wall Street was kept waiting for a half-hour by a government delay that whipsawed markets and sowed confusion on trading desks.
Several Federal Reserve officials acknowledged there was a plausible case for cutting interest rates at their July 30-31 meeting before the central bank’s policy committee voted unanimously to keep them steady.
The euro’s August gains have been relentless, taking it to a one-year high against the dollar on Wednesday, but a cautious tone from Powell on Friday could turn that momentum around.
It’s arguably one of the last places you’d expect stock investors to turn as China’s economy struggles and its real estate crisis worsens.
Australia’s second-best performing hedge fund is profiting from greater market swings during earnings seasons, saying investment bank research has failed to track the ups and downs of faster-evolving industries.
French services expanded at the fastest pace in more than two years, driving Europe’s second-biggest economy as visitors from around the world flocked to Paris for the Olympic Games.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias after the gains on Wall St where a downward payrolls revision and the FOMC Minutes further supported the consensus for a September Fed rate cut. ASX 200 edged higher but with gains capped as participants digested a slew of earnings, while data showed an improvement across Australia’s flash PMIs although manufacturing remained in contraction. Nikkei 225 marginally outperformed its peers and returned to above the key 38,000 level. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. wer e somewhat varied with notable strength in Hong Kong tech stocks after a solid earnings report from Xiaomi, although pharmaceutical stocks and WuXi biologics were at the other end of the spectrum after the latter reported a 24% drop in H1 net, while the mainland remained lacklustre amid growth concerns, trade frictions and a net liquidity drain.
Top Asian News
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50% as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK said it will examine the proper timing of rate cuts and said confidence is greater that inflation will converge on the target level, while it dropped the phrase ‘sufficient period of time’ in saying it will maintain a restrictive policy stance. BoK Governor Rhee said inflation conditions are appropriate for a cut and that four board members said room for a rate cut should remain open although Rhee also stated that rising financial stability risks warranted the BoK’s decision to hold rates today. Furthermore, Rhee said the pace and extent of an interest rate cut in South Korea will be smaller than that of the US and noted the BoK is communicating with markets using a three-month horizon forward guidance but also stated that forward guidance doesn’t guarantee a rate cut.
BoJ is considering adding wage-related items to the Tankan survey, according to Jiji News; aims to analyse wage trends in Tankan survey, reflects on monetary policy decision
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.5%) began the session flat/modestly firmer. Indices were choppy following the various PMI releases, but ultimately trudged higher as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a positive bias, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Retail takes the top spot, propped up by post-earning strength in JD Sports (+3.1%). Basic Resources lags, paring back some of the strength seen yesterday, in line with a pullback in metals prices. US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ U/C, RTY U/C) are flat/firmer, with traders mindful ahead of the beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.
Top European News
UK Firms Report Faster Growth, Cooler Inflation in Boost for BOE
Private Equity Fights for UK Tax Perk While Ducking Public Ire
Norway’s Households Expect Near-Term Inflation to Accelerate
Euro-Zone Economy Handed Surprise Boost by Paris Olympics
FX
DXY is a touch higher but ultimately not showing enough of a resurgence to reverse the recent bearish run for the index. DXY went as low as 100.92 on Wednesday, but currently stands around 101.25.
EUR is marginally softer vs. the USD in the wake of a slew of EZ PMI metrics which ultimately saw continued outperformance in the service sector vs. the manufacturing industry with the former helping the composite to gain a firmer footing above the 50 mark. Elsewhere, a decline in EZ Negotiated Wages for Q2 had little sustained follow-through into the EUR. For now, EUR/USD is contained within Wednesday’s 1.1098-1.1174 range.
GBP is edging gains vs. both the USD and EUR with solid PMI metrics underpinning the pound. Cable has taken out yesterday’s 1.3119 high and therefore brought the 2023 high into view at 1.3142.
JPY is trivially softer vs. the USD with markets awaiting two potentially key inflection points for the pair tomorrow. 1) Ueda’s appearance before Parliament and 2) Powell’s appearance at Jackson Hole.
Antipodeans are both marginally firmer vs. the USD in quiet trade which is showing a mild pro-risk bias.
Fixed Income
USTs moved in tandem with the net-hawkish move seen in Bunds/Gilts on their own metrics. Docket today sees US PMIs ahead of the commencement of the Jackson Hole Symposium. At a 113-19 base, support from the last few session’s lows at 113-14+, 113-03+ and 112-31.
Bund price action today has been dictated by PMI releaes. Bunds were initially pressured by strong French PMIs, but the release is subject to extensive Olympic-related caveats, which led to the upside being mostly pared. Thereafter, German numbers were soft lifting Bunds to a 135.08 peak, spurred by the data erring towards another negative quarter and potential recession talk. Ultimately, Bunds are in the red and just below the knee-jerk base which printed on the initial French numbers.
Gilts were moving in tandem with Bunds into its own release, which was stronger across the board. Overall, a hawkish reaction was seen with GBP picking up and Gilts probing below the earlier 99.87 base; current low of 99.81.
Commodities
Relatively flat session for crude thus far following Wednesday’s losses. Brent Oct is trading within USD 75.77-76.21/bbl parameters.
Mixed trade across precious metals with slight gains in spot palladium while spot gold and silver trade subdued in what has been a quiet morning this far, and with little move seen in the metals to EZ PMIs. Spot gold trades in a USD 2,514.69-2,499.18/oz range.
Base metals are flat trade on Thursday, infitting with the broader tentative mood and following the prior day’s fluctuations, with markets seemingly on standby ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chair Powell’s speech in the absence of any other macro impulses.
Russia’s Novatek has postponed launched of third line at Artic LNG 2 project to 2028, according RBC citing source.
Chinese crude steel output -9.0% Y/Y in July to 82.9mln tonnes; world steel output -4.7% Y/Y to 152.8mln tonnes.
UBS continue to expect Brent to recover into a USD 85-90/bbl range over the coming months; Reiterate a step up in Gold ETF inflows required for next leg higher toward their mid-2025 gold target of USD 2700/oz
OPEC Secretariat received updated compensation plans from Iraq and Kazakhstan.
Geopolitics
MIDDLE EAST
Ambrey reports a fire at sea approx. 58NM southwest of Salif, Yemen; likely related to the destruction of a suspected unmanned surface vessel
Israeli forces besiege Tulkarm refugee camp east of the city in the West Bank, while it was also reported that the Israeli army launched raids on 10 areas in Lebanon.
US officials said to believe that Iranian leaders have decided to postpone the response to Haniyeh’s assassination but fear that Tehran will urge Hezbollah to attack, according to The Washington Post.
US military announced on Wednesday that the USS Abraham Lincoln entered the Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East, according to Iran International.
A fire broke out at a military facility in Russia’s Volgograd region after a drone crashed into it, according to Interfax.
US Embassy within Kyiv says they see an increased risk of Russian drone/missile attacks in the coming days, due to Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24th August
US Event Calendar
08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 232,000, prior 227,000
Aug. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.86m
08:30: July Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.03, prior 0.05
09:45: Aug. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.5, prior 49.6
Aug. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 54.0, prior 55.0
Aug. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.2, prior 54.3
10:00: July Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 1.3%, prior -5.4%
11:00: Aug. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -9, prior -13
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets put in another decent performance yesterday, as the S&P 500 (+0.42%) posted a further advance that left it less than 1% beneath its record high from July. The gains happened despite some negative revisions to US payrolls, but given the widespread expectations that they’d be revised down anyway, the news didn’t lead to a big reaction among risk assets. Plus the revisions only affect the numbers up to March, and don’t change our understanding of the more recent figures, which is ultimately what the Fed cares about. Later on in the session, we then received some dovish-leaning minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, which along with the payrolls revisions helped to cement expectations that the Fed would cut rates pretty rapidly over the coming months, with over 100bps of cuts priced in by year-end again.
In terms of the details of those revisions, what we got yesterday was the preliminary estimate for the annual benchmark revisions, which included an -818k downward revision to the March payrolls number. In other words, that means the monthly payroll numbers would be -68k lower if you assume the revisions are spread evenly across the year. Before the revisions, nonfarm payrolls had been running at an average pace of +242k per month over the year to March, so a downward revision that big would mean the pace was actually +174k instead. So these are still steady gains that are well clear of recessionary levels. But they’re noticeably less robust than previously thought, and the revisions have added to the narrative that the labour market is weakening, particularly after the jobs report at the start of the month.
The dovish mood then got a further boost from the minutes of the July FOMC meeting, which solidified the prospects of a September cut. Several FOMC participants even “observed that the recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate had provided a plausible case” for a 25bps cut at the July meeting. And while all of the FOMC supported the decision to keep rates unchanged in the end, a “vast majority” saw a September rate cut as appropriate if data came in as expected. There was also a shift in the economic assessment, as most of the FOMC “remarked that the risks to the employment goal had increased” and “some participants also noted the risk that a further gradual easing in labor market conditions could transition to a more serious deterioration”.
In response to the payroll revisions and Fed minutes, the most obvious market reaction was that investors dialled up their expectations for Fed rate cuts. For instance, futures are now pricing in 103bps of cuts by the December meeting (+4.3bps on the day). Bear in mind there’s only three meetings left this year, so that’s implicitly pricing in at least one meeting where they deliver a larger 50bp move. The chance of a 50bp move in September also ticked up from 34% to 36% by the close. Those growing expectations of a 50bp rate cut helped to weaken the dollar further, and the dollar index (-0.40%) fell back for a fourth consecutive session to its lowest since December. In turn, front-end Treasury yields moved noticeably lower with the 2yr yield (-5.3bps) down to 3.93%. This was accompanied by a sizeable steepening of the curve, with the 10yr yield (-0.6bps) down marginally and the 30yr (+1.7bps) higher on the day.
When it came to equities, there was a solid performance yesterday. The S&P 500 (+0.42%) saw a moderate but broad advance, with 80% of its constituents higher on the day and its equal-weighted version (+0.71%) posting a new all-time high. Target (+10.34%) was the second-best performer in the index after it reported that comparable sales were up +2% in Q2, ending a run of four quarterly declines. And it was a strong day for small-caps, with the Russell 2000 posting a +1.32% gain. However, there were a few signs of moderate stress, as the VIX index of volatility ticked up +0.39pts to 16.27pts.
Over in Europe it was a similar story, with moderate gains for the major equity indices that left the STOXX 600 up +0.33%. The broad dollar weakness also helped the Euro to strengthen for a fourth consecutive day, closing at a one-year high of $1.1146. At the same time, investors mirrored the US in dialling up their expectation of rate cuts from the ECB, and sovereign bond yields fell to their lowest in months across several countries. For example, yields on 10yr French OATs (-4.0bps) closed at 2.90%, their lowest since May, whilst yields on 10yr Italian BTPs (-3.4bps) closed at their lowest since December.
The dovish narrative about rate cuts got another boost from lower energy prices, which added to the sense that inflationary pressures were easing. For instance, Brent crude oil prices were down another -1.49% yesterday to $76.05/bbl, which is their lowest closing level since January. It now means that Brent crude is negative on a YTD basis again, and the effects have already been seen filtering through to lower gasoline prices. For example, the AAA’s daily tracker of US gasoline prices was down to $3.40 on Tuesday, which is its lowest level since March.
Overnight in Asia, markets have been trading more cautiously as investors look forward to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole tomorrow. The Nikkei (+0.38%) has posted a decent gain, along with the Hang Seng (+0.40%). But elsewhere things have been more muted, and the CSI 300 (-0.13%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.04%) have both posted modest declines, whilst the KOSPI (+0.02%) has seen little movement after the Bank of Korea left their policy rate unchanged, in line with expectations. Looking forward, US and European equity futures are also pointing lower, with those on the S&P 500 (-0.14%) and the DAX (-0.08%) falling back slightly.
Elsewhere, one of the main highlights today will be the release of the August flash PMIs, which will offer an initial indication of how the global economy has been performing into this month. Overnight, we’ve already had some of those releases, which have painted a stronger picture so far. For instance, Australia’s composite PMI was back up to a three-month high of 51.4. And in Japan, the composite PMI was at a 15-month high of 53.0.
There was very little other data yesterday apart from the payrolls revisions. However, we did get the MBA’s weekly data on US mortgage applications. That showed the number of applications to purchase a home were down to their lowest since February, even though the contract rate fell to 6.50%, which is the lowest since May 2023.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the August flash PMIs from Europe and the US. In addition, we’ll get the US weekly initial jobless claims and existing home sales for July, whilst in the Euro Area there’s the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for August. From central banks, the ECB will publish the account of their July meeting.
2B) European report
Equities gain modestly, Bonds hampered following EZ PMI metrics & GBP benefits on its own results – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 06:09 AM
European bourses are mostly firmer across the board; US futures gain incrementally
Dollar is trivially higher, GBP outperforms following stronger than expected PMI metrics
Bonds are lower following the generally better than expected PMI releases, particularly in France the EZ and the UK; Germany continues to print poor metrics
Crude is flat, XAU is slightly softer but remains above USD 2500/oz
Looking ahead, US PMIs, US IJC, NZ Retail Sales, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB Minutes, US Democratic Convention, Supply from US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.5%) began the session flat/modestly firmer. Indices were choppy following the various PMI releases, but ultimately trudged higher as the morning progressed.
European sectors hold a positive bias, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Retail takes the top spot, propped up by post-earning strength in JD Sports (+3.1%). Basic Resources lags, paring back some of the strength seen yesterday, in line with a pullback in metals prices.
US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ U/C, RTY U/C) are flat/firmer, with traders mindful ahead of the beginning of the Jackson Hole Symposium and Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday.
DXY is a touch higher but ultimately not showing enough of a resurgence to reverse the recent bearish run for the index. DXY went as low as 100.92 on Wednesday, but currently stands around 101.25.
EUR is marginally softer vs. the USD in the wake of a slew of EZ PMI metrics which ultimately saw continued outperformance in the service sector vs. the manufacturing industry with the former helping the composite to gain a firmer footing above the 50 mark. Elsewhere, a decline in EZ Negotiated Wages for Q2 had little sustained follow-through into the EUR. For now, EUR/USD is contained within Wednesday’s 1.1098-1.1174 range.
GBP is edging gains vs. both the USD and EUR with solid PMI metrics underpinning the pound. Cable has taken out yesterday’s 1.3119 high and therefore brought the 2023 high into view at 1.3142.
JPY is trivially softer vs. the USD with markets awaiting two potentially key inflection points for the pair tomorrow. 1) Ueda’s appearance before Parliament and 2) Powell’s appearance at Jackson Hole.
Antipodeans are both marginally firmer vs. the USD in quiet trade which is showing a mild pro-risk bias.
USTs moved in tandem with the net-hawkish move seen in Bunds/Gilts on their own metrics. Docket today sees US PMIs ahead of the commencement of the Jackson Hole Symposium. At a 113-19 base, support from the last few session’s lows at 113-14+, 113-03+ and 112-31.
Bund price action today has been dictated by PMI releaes. Bunds were initially pressured by strong French PMIs, but the release is subject to extensive Olympic-related caveats, which led to the upside being mostly pared. Thereafter, German numbers were soft lifting Bunds to a 135.08 peak, spurred by the data erring towards another negative quarter and potential recession talk. Ultimately, Bunds are in the red and just below the knee-jerk base which printed on the initial French numbers.
Gilts were moving in tandem with Bunds into its own release, which was stronger across the board. Overall, a hawkish reaction was seen with GBP picking up and Gilts probing below the earlier 99.87 base; current low of 99.81.
Relatively flat session for crude thus far following Wednesday’s losses. Brent Oct is trading within USD 75.77-76.21/bbl parameters.
Mixed trade across precious metals with slight gains in spot palladium while spot gold and silver trade subdued in what has been a quiet morning this far, and with little move seen in the metals to EZ PMIs. Spot gold trades in a USD 2,514.69-2,499.18/oz range.
Base metals are flat trade on Thursday, infitting with the broader tentative mood and following the prior day’s fluctuations, with markets seemingly on standby ahead of the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium and Fed Chair Powell’s speech in the absence of any other macro impulses.
Russia’s Novatek has postponed launched of third line at Artic LNG 2 project to 2028, according RBC citing source.
Chinese crude steel output -9.0% Y/Y in July to 82.9mln tonnes; world steel output -4.7% Y/Y to 152.8mln tonnes.
UBS continue to expect Brent to recover into a USD 85-90/bbl range over the coming months; Reiterate a step up in Gold ETF inflows required for next leg higher toward their mid-2025 gold target of USD 2700/oz
OPEC Secretariat received updated compensation plans from Iraq and Kazakhstan.
French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Aug) 52.7 vs. Exp. 49.1 (Prev. 49.1); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Aug) 42.1 vs. Exp. 44.4 (Prev. 44); Services Flash PMI (Aug) 55.0 vs. Exp. 50.3 (Prev. 50.1)
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Aug) 51.2 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.2); Services Flash PMI (Aug) 53.3 vs. Exp. 51.9 (Prev. 51.9); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Aug) 45.6 vs. Exp. 45.8 (Prev. 45.8)
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Aug) 48.5 vs. Exp. 49.2 (Prev. 49.1); Manufacturing Flash PMI (Aug) 42.1 vs. Exp. 43.5 (Prev. 43.2); Services Flash PMI (Aug) 51.4 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.5)
UK Flash Services PMI (Aug) 53.3 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.5); Composite PMI (Aug) 53.4 vs. Exp. 52.9 (Prev. 52.8); Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.5 vs. Exp. 52.1 (Prev. 52.1)
EU EZ Negotiated Wage Rates (Q2) 3.55% (Prev. 4.74%); Modest and ultimately fleeting dovish reaction seen on the release.
OTHER DATA RECAP
Norwegian GDP Growth Mainland (Q2) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.1%); GDP Growth (Q2) 1.4% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.3%)
Swedish New Orders Manuf. YY (Jun) 0.8% (Prev. -8.9%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Ambrey reports a fire at sea approx. 58NM southwest of Salif, Yemen; likely related to the destruction of a suspected unmanned surface vessel
Israeli forces besiege Tulkarm refugee camp east of the city in the West Bank, while it was also reported that the Israeli army launched raids on 10 areas in Lebanon.
US officials said to believe that Iranian leaders have decided to postpone the response to Haniyeh’s assassination but fear that Tehran will urge Hezbollah to attack, according to The Washington Post.
US military announced on Wednesday that the USS Abraham Lincoln entered the Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East, according to Iran International.
A fire broke out at a military facility in Russia’s Volgograd region after a drone crashed into it, according to Interfax.
OTHER
US Embassy within Kyiv says they see an increased risk of Russian drone/missile attacks in the coming days, due to Ukraine’s Independence Day on 24th August
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is flat and holds just beneath USD 61k, with Ethereum also rangebound just above USD 2.6k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias after the gains on Wall St where a downward payrolls revision and the FOMC Minutes further supported the consensus for a September Fed rate cut.
ASX 200 edged higher but with gains capped as participants digested a slew of earnings, while data showed an improvement across Australia’s flash PMIs although manufacturing remained in contraction.
Nikkei 225 marginally outperformed its peers and returned to above the key 38,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with notable strength in Hong Kong tech stocks after a solid earnings report from Xiaomi, although pharmaceutical stocks and WuXi biologics were at the other end of the spectrum after the latter reported a 24% drop in H1 net, while the mainland remained lacklustre amid growth concerns, trade frictions and a net liquidity drain.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50% as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK said it will examine the proper timing of rate cuts and said confidence is greater that inflation will converge on the target level, while it dropped the phrase ‘sufficient period of time’ in saying it will maintain a restrictive policy stance. BoK Governor Rhee said inflation conditions are appropriate for a cut and that four board members said room for a rate cut should remain open although Rhee also stated that rising financial stability risks warranted the BoK’s decision to hold rates today. Furthermore, Rhee said the pace and extent of an interest rate cut in South Korea will be smaller than that of the US and noted the BoK is communicating with markets using a three-month horizon forward guidance but also stated that forward guidance doesn’t guarantee a rate cut.
BoJ is considering adding wage-related items to the Tankan survey, according to Jiji News; aims to analyse wage trends in Tankan survey, reflects on monetary policy decision
DATA RECAP
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Aug) 49.5 (Prev. 49.1); Services PMI 54.0 (Prev. 53.7)
Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (Aug) 53.0 (Prev. 52.5)
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 48.7 (Prev. 47.5); Services PMI 52.2 (Prev. 50.4)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 51.4 (Prev. 49.9)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
FOMC Minutes support a September cut; Jackson Hole begins – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 01:30 AM
APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias after the gains on Wall St where a downward payrolls revision and the FOMC Minutes further supported the consensus for a September Fed rate cut.
FOMC Minutes from the July meeting continued to point to a September move as a vast majority of participants said it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting if data continued to come in as expected.
DXY nursed some losses after retreating yesterday to briefly beneath the 101.00 level, USD/JPY rebounded and reclaimed the 145.00 status, and EUR/USD trickled back from a fresh YTD high following its fourth consecutive daily gain.
Gaza truce talks have reached an impasse, according to Sky News Arabia citing Times of Israel; Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are ready for any scenario, whether in defence or attack in the face of near and far threats, according to Al Jazeera.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US PMIs, EZ Negotiated Wages (Q2), US IJC, NZ Retail Sales, Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB Minutes, US Democratic Convention, Supply from US, Earnings from Swiss Re, Hays, Ross, Intuit & Workday.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks edged higher on what was a choppy session, although the gains in the major indices and the bull steepening in Treasuries were ultimately facilitated by the downward BLS Payrolls revision and after the FOMC Minutes from the July meeting continued to point to a September move as a vast majority of participants said it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting if data continued to come in as expected.
SPX +0.42% at 5,621, NDX +0.53% at 19,825, DJIA +0.13% at 40,890, RUT +1.32% at 2,171.
FOMC Minutes said the vast majority of participants at the July 30th-31st meeting said it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting if data continued to come in as expected, and participants viewed incoming data as enhancing their confidence that inflation was moving towards the 2% objective.
A majority of participants said risk to the employment goal has increased and many noted risks to the inflation goal decreased, while several participants said recent progress on inflation and increases in the unemployment rate provided a ‘plausible case’ for a 25bps cut at July’s meeting or that they could have supported such a move. Furthermore, many participants noted that easing policy too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity or employment and several participants said reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk a reversal of progress on inflation.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded with a mild positive bias after the gains on Wall St where a downward payrolls revision and the FOMC Minutes further supported the consensus for a September Fed rate cut.
ASX 200 edged higher but with gains capped as participants digested a slew of earnings, while data showed an improvement across Australia’s flash PMIs although manufacturing remained in contraction.
Nikkei 225 marginally outperformed its peers and returned to above the key 38,000 level.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were somewhat varied with notable strength in Hong Kong tech stocks after a solid earnings report from Xiaomi, although pharmaceutical stocks and WuXi biologics were at the other end of the spectrum after the latter reported a 24% drop in H1 net, while the mainland remained lacklustre amid growth concerns, trade frictions and a net liquidity drain.
US equity futures were rangebound and took a pause after yesterday’s mild gains.
European equity futures indicate an uneventful open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.1% after the cash market finished higher by 0.6% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY nursed some losses after retreating yesterday to briefly beneath the 101.00 level (to a 100.92 low) with headwinds from the negative payrolls revision and after the FOMC Minutes all but cemented a September rate cut.
EUR/USD trickled back from a fresh YTD high following its fourth consecutive daily gain.
GBP/USD marginally softened after failing to sustain a brief foray into 1.3100 territory.
USD/JPY rebounded and reclaimed the 145.00 status but with further upside limited after recent fluctuations, while participants await the Jackson Hole Symposium and BoJ Governor Ueda’s appearance in parliament on Friday where he is set to face a grilling following the market turmoil earlier this month.
Antipodeans marginally softened following recent advances and lacklustre commodity prices.
FIXED INCOME
10-year UST futures slightly eased back following the prior day’s bull steepening which was ultimately spurred by the downward payrolls revision and after the FOMC Minutes pointed to a September rate cut.
Bund futures faded some of their recent gains after hitting resistance at the 135.00 level.
10-year JGB futures lacked demand amid the absence of pertinent drivers and with prices also not helped by the weaker results at the enhanced liquidity auction for long-end JGBs.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures remained lacklustre after this week’s selling pressure despite the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and larger-than-expected drawdown in the latest inventory data.
Spot gold marginally weakened after recent indecision to test the USD 2,500/oz level to the downside.
Copper futures took a breather following yesterday’s rebound and as sentiment in China lagged.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin prices were pressured and retreated to beneath the USD 61,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoK kept its base rate unchanged at 3.50% as expected, with the decision made unanimously. BoK said it will examine the proper timing of rate cuts and said confidence is greater that inflation will converge on the target level, while it dropped the phrase ‘sufficient period of time’ in saying it will maintain a restrictive policy stance. BoK Governor Rhee said inflation conditions are appropriate for a cut and that four board members said room for a rate cut should remain open although Rhee also stated that rising financial stability risks warranted the BoK’s decision to hold rates today. Furthermore, Rhee said the pace and extent of an interest rate cut in South Korea will be smaller than that of the US and noted the BoK is communicating with markets using a three-month horizon forward guidance but also stated that forward guidance doesn’t guarantee a rate cut.
DATA RECAP
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Aug) 49.5 (Prev. 49.1)
Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (Aug) 54.0 (Prev. 53.7)
Japanese JibunBK Composite Op Flash SA (Aug) 53.0 (Prev. 52.5)
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Aug) 48.7 (Prev. 47.5)
Australian Judo Bank Services PMI Flash (Aug) 52.2 (Prev. 50.4)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Aug) 51.4 (Prev. 49.9)
GEOPOLITICAL
MIDDLE EAST
Gaza truce talks have reached an impasse, according to Sky News Arabia citing Times of Israel.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are ready for any scenario, whether in defence or attack in the face of near and far threats, according to Al Jazeera.
US President Biden spoke with Israeli PM Netanyahu to discuss the ceasefire and hostage release deal with diplomatic efforts to de-escalate regional tensions, while Vice President Harris also joined the call. It was later reported that Biden stressed to Netanyahu the urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage deal to closure and discussed upcoming talks in Cairo to remove any remaining obstacles, according to the White House.
Israeli PM Netanyahu’s office denied a report that the PM agreed to withdraw troops from the Philadelphi corridor and said Israel insists on all objectives for the Gaza war including securing the southern border.
Israeli forces besiege Tulkarm refugee camp east of the city in the West Bank, while it was also reported that the Israeli army launched raids on 10 areas in Lebanon.
Israel is expected to retaliate in a “strong manner” to Hezbollah striking the city of Katzrin in the Golan Heights with 50 rockets, according to Kann News.
US officials said to believe that Iranian leaders have decided to postpone the response to Haniyeh’s assassination but fear that Tehran will urge Hezbollah to attack, according to The Washington Post.
US military announced on Wednesday that the USS Abraham Lincoln entered the Central Command area of responsibility in the Middle East, according to Iran International.
OTHER
A fire broke out at a military facility in Russia’s Volgograd region after a drone crashed into it, according to Interfax.
2D JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND/
Just look at what is going on in the UK with tax payer funded posters demanding that white straight men pass the power to gays.
(zerohedge)
Taxpayer-Funded Posters In London Proclaim “Hey Straight White Men Pass The Power!”
A taxpayer-funded group is once again putting up posters around London that say, “Hey Straight White Men Pass The Power!”
Yes, really.
The posters, which originally appeared in Southwark, London and other areas of the UK in 2022, appear to have popped up once again, with an image posted to X showing one in Acton, London.
Billboards saying “Hey straight white men, pass the power!” are appearing all over London, just to make sure you know it’s not happening and it’s a good thing that it is.
·
388.7K Views
Billboards saying "Hey straight white men, pass the power!" are appearing all over London, just to make sure you know it's not happening and it's a good thing that it is. pic.twitter.com/BMZFUKJqRg
They are the work of an art project called the Artichoke Trust and were designed by a black artist from Marseille called Nadina who previously produced ‘street art’ that proclaimed, ‘Never forget George Floyd’ and ‘Nobody is free until Palestine is free’.
“Research from the Taxpayers’ Alliance claimed (the group) had been given £3million from a government art grant,” reported the Daily Mail.
Respondents questioned precisely what ‘power’ straight white men were supposed to give up in a society where they are already disenfranchised to the extent that large, partially government-funded billboards in major cities scream at them for merely existing.
“Hey straight white men, pass the power!” Anti-White billboards seen across Britain were tax-funded. Complete absurdity.
When the posters initially appeared two years ago, they drew the ire of author Douglas Murray, who asked who exactly white people were supposed to ‘pass the power’ to.
“When I see such a piece of public insult, a number of things cross my otherwise tranquil mind. The first is a desire to put a foot through the billboard in question,” wrote Murray.
“The second is to wonder whether Southwark council, the Mayor of London or anyone else would permit any similarly bigoted public messages if they happened to turn it round the other way. ‘Oy, black blokes. Give us your rights!’, for example. Or: ‘Hey, gays, hand over the cash!’ Those billboards would most likely be hate crimes, and the mayor of London, Southwark council, the General Synod and everyone else would immediately be out to condemn them as such. But when it comes to not just insulting straight white men, but actually hectoring them, then it seems no one can be bothered to raise a whisper of objection.”
Respondents on X compared the posters to anti-mass migration stickers that were handed out by activist Sam Melia, who ended up receiving a 2 year prison sentence for “inciting racial hatred.”
The stickers handed out by Melia included one that said, “It’s OK to be white.”
How bad are hate speech laws in the UK? Saying “it’s OK to be white” can result in a harsher sentence than child pornography.
found numerous cases in which UK judges jailed thought criminals while letting actual criminals off the hook. The list is shocking.
·
12.7M Views
How bad are hate speech laws in the UK? Saying "it's OK to be white" can result in a harsher sentence than child pornography. @abigailandwords found numerous cases in which UK judges jailed thought criminals while letting actual criminals off the hook.
So apparently, merely affirming that it’s acceptable to be white is a criminal offence, but demanding white men give up their (illusory) power is a social justice cause to be celebrated and funded with taxpayer money.
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
ENGLAND
25% of Brits are considering turning off the heat in the winter as their power bills soar
(zerohedge)
25% Of Brits Consider Turning Off The Heat In Winter As Power-Bills Soar
About a quarter of British households are so worried about their electricity bills they are considering spending next heating season without heat or hot water, a survey by Citizens Advice has suggested.
The concern follows plans by the national electricity market regulator to raise the cap on bills by another 9.2%, equal to 150 pounds or $195.
The Citizens Advice report said the percentage of those worried about the affordability of their electricity was substantially higher among households with children, where the percentage was 31%, and low-income households, where 39% were worried about the coming heating season.
The consumer advocacy group also reported that 48% of respondents in its survey had said they would have to turn down the heat or turn it off to survive winter financially.
Another 34% said it would be difficult for them to afford food, mortgage payments, or childcare this winter because of higher electricity prices.
Citizens Advice called on the authorities to find a way out of this situation, saying that “While plans to focus the energy market on renewables could reduce energy bills in the long term, households in desperate need can’t afford to wait until then.”
The specific move that the Keir Starmer government could make, according to the organization, was to increase the amount of state help for energy bills to low-income households.
Earlier this year, energy consultancy Cornwall Insight forecast that electricity costs in Britain this year will come in at an average 113 pounds per MWh—double the historical average, City AM reported in January.
This week, the BBC reported that Ofgem, the market regulator, was likely to raise the energy bill cap by 9%, citing Cornwall Insight as the source of the forecast as electricity suppliers’ wholesale costs rose by 20% over the last few months.
Ofgem will decide on the cap in October.
END
EU/RUSSIA
Not a very smart move as this will anger Russia more:
(Oil Price.com))
EU Mulls Open-Ended Immobilization Of Russian Assets
The EU and G7 are exploring ways to use frozen Russian assets to financially support Ukraine, potentially through a $50 billion loan backed by these assets.
The EU is considering either open-ended immobilization of Russian assets or extending sanctions by up to 36 months to provide legal certainty for the plan.
The EU has officially launched a visa liberalization dialogue with Armenia, which could eventually allow Armenians visa-free travel to most EU countries.
The European Union and the Group of Seven (G7) leading industrialized nations are slowly gearing up new legislation that will allow a $50 billion loan to go to Ukraine by the end of the year.
The political decision for that loan was already agreed when the G7 met in Italy for its annual summit on June 13-15. In the communique from the meeting, it was stated that “we decided to make available approximately $50 billion leveraging the extraordinary revenues of the immobilized Russian sovereign assets, sending an unmistakable signal to President Putin.”
There are roughly $282 billion worth of Russian frozen assets in G7 countries after these resources were targeted by sanctions in early 2022, mostly in the EU. And while no one is keen yet to face the legal consequences of actually confiscating the money — as fears persist it could dissuade other countries from investing in the eurozone and thus undermine the euro — there is momentum now to get creative in using the funds to financially support Kyiv.
The G7 declaration stated as much by noting that “Russia must end its illegal war of aggression and pay for the damage it has caused to Ukraine. These damages now exceed $486 billion, according to the World Bank. It is not right for Russia to decide if or when it will pay for the damage it has caused in Ukraine. Russia’s obligations under international law to pay for the damage it is causing are clear, and so we are continuing to consider all possible lawful avenues by which Russia is made to meet those obligations.”
Deep Background:
Most Russian money located in the EU, the onus is on Brussels. EU leaders, including more Ukraine-skeptic nations such as Hungary and Slovakia, endorsed the G7 outcome at a summit in Brussels just a week after. They unanimously agreed on conclusions that urged the European Commission to take the work forward on this and added, “Subject to EU law, Russia’s assets should remain immobilized until Russia ceases its war of aggression against Ukraine and compensates it for the damage caused by this war.”
It should be recalled that the bloc already has a mechanism in place to send the annual windfall profits from the frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. This is estimated to generate some 3 billion euros a year ($3.2 billion), with 90 percent of it going to military equipment and the rest for reconstruction.
The first tranche of this money was disbursed over the summer.
This new G7 initiative, however, goes a step further, bringing the interest proceeds from frozen assets via a loan that is guaranteed by the G7 countries.
The preliminary division is that the EU and the United States will back this up with $20 billion each, and Japan and the United Kingdom will guarantee the remaining $10 billion between them. But a lot of nitty-gritty legal groundwork is still needed.
Drilling Down
The item was discussed for the first time by EU ambassadors at the end of July with the European Commission providing a one-page outline, seen by RFE/RL, of what the options are. The idea is that the commission will present a fully fleshed-out legal proposal at the end of August with EU ambassadors discussing the text on September 4. But from the one-pager it is already clear that there are essentially just two avenues available to take.
The main issues to ensure are legal certainty and predictability. And that means that Russian assets remain frozen for a longer period. Brussels is looking to either agree on an open-ended immobilization of Russian assets or prolong this sanction by a longer period of up to 36 months. It’s worth noting that all types of economic sanctions against Russia that Brussels has imposed currently are rolled over via consensus by the 27 member states every six months, with the latest prolongation confirmed on July 22.
According to diplomats familiar with the initial discussion, the overwhelming majority favor an open-ended immobilization. The option paper says this option will still be “reviewed by the Council at regular intervals (e.g. 12 months), on the basis of clear predefined criteria (i.e. the end of the war of aggression and assurances of nonrepetition, the payment of compensation by Russia, etc. as set out by the EUCO – European Council).”
It also adds that “ending the immobilization of the CBR (Central Bank of Russia) assets would require a new Council act, based on a report by the High Representative (EU foreign policy chief)/Commission assessing that the criteria for lifting are fulfilled.”
The question is, however, whether Hungary has the appetite to agree on this. So far, EU leaders have never threatened not to roll over the sanctions but at the same time they haven’t been militantly against moving away from an extension beyond the six months mark. Budapest might go against both options outlined in the paper, and that would mean there isn’t much of the legal certainty and predictability that the EU seeks.
If the EU can ensure this, the question is whether the United States, in the middle of its election period, is ready to give a green light. The U.S. Congress needs to approve this loan, and if there are any fears that Hungary (or any other EU member states, for that matter) might threaten to block the renewal a couple of times a year, the whole scheme risks unraveling.
That’s why the United States initially wanted the EU to guarantee most, if not all, of the $50 billion and why most member states would prefer an open-ended immobilization. The diplomatic wrangling on this is likely to continue throughout the autumn.
Looking Ahead
The EU and NATO are still on the beach this week, but look out for two interesting visits on August 21. First German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is due in Chisinau in what is a symbolic show of solidarity from the EU’s most powerful member state to Moldova, which will hold a crucial presidential vote later this autumn and a referendum on whether the country should aim to join the EU.
That same day Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is due in Warsaw and will travel to Kyiv from there. The West has attempted to woo India for a long time and is hoping the country will be more vocal and practical in its support for Ukraine and opposition to Russia’s invasion.
end
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/
Israel’s dilemma: Victory over Hamas or future security – opinion
Israel faces a painful decision: pursue victory over Hamas or risk future security by yielding to their demands. The nation’s response will define its strength and future stability.
By YARON SCHWARTZAUGUST 21, 2024 23:21
IDF VEHICLES transport a group of soldiers and journalists to the southern Gaza Strip, last month. The closer we get to destroying Hamas, the closer the hostages get to freedom, the writer maintains.(photo credit: Ohad Zwigenberg/Reuters)
Israel stands on the precipice of an excruciating reality: the possibility that many of our loved ones held by Hamas – whether alive or dead – may never return. This harrowing truth is a dagger in the hearts of Israelis and Jews worldwide.
Yet, as painful as it is, we must not let it cloud our judgment or weaken our resolve. Hamas, true to form, seeks to exploit our anguish to further its nefarious goals. To capitulate to their outrageous demands would not only endanger Israel’s future but also signal to our enemies that terrorism and violence yield results.
Israel’s long-term security hinges on seeing this conflict through to its conclusion. Anything less would be perceived as a failure, inviting further attacks. Hamas refuses any deal that doesn’t ensure its survival and rehabilitation, allowing it to regroup, rearm, and renew its terror on Israel.
Hamas’s demands, which include withdrawals of the IDF from Gaza’s border with Egypt and the release of convicted terrorists, are part of a strategy to emerge stronger when the proverbial dust settles. The inimitable Yahya Sinwar seeks nothing less than Israel’s complete capitulation, a prospect that Israel cannot and must not entertain.
The war that was thrust upon Israel on October 7 is not an isolated incident, but simply the latest chapter in a century-long campaign. The Palestinians have sought to prevent and erase not just Jewish sovereignty, but Jews’ undeniable history in the Land of Israel.
IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip. August 20, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
To them, Israel’s very existence is an affront to their dignity – dignity they believe was lost when Jews returned to their ancestral homeland, refused subjugation, and reclaimed what had been colonized and occupied by Arabs and Ottomans. While Hamas introduces a jihadist and antisemitic component to this war, their ideology is merely a continuation of the Palestinian Arabs’ war against the very idea of a sovereign Jewish state.
Hamas has weaponized our deep value for human life, fully aware that the hostages would become a source of anguish and division among Israelis. It’s no accident that a vocal minority of anti-Zionist Israelis and so-called “peace activists” advocate for a deal “at any cost.” Whether they realize it or not, their actions play directly into Hamas’s hands, pressuring our government to submit.
Learning from the past
History, however, has shown the folly of such concessions. The 2011 deal for captive soldier Gilad Shalit, while reuniting him with his family, released over 1,000 terrorists, including Sinwar himself. Many of those released resumed their terror activities, including dozens who participated in the mass October 7 pogrom. Israel cannot afford to repeat this mistake on an even grander scale.
We should remember that Netanyahu eventually gave in to the relentless pressure to secure Shalit’s release – a five-year campaign backed by the Israeli media and PR experts, with ironclad “guarantees” from the IDF and security officials that the consequences of releasing butchers like Sinwar could be “managed.”
Many who pushed for the Shalit deal, including respected security officials and pundits, now lament it as a grave misjudgment on Netanyahu’s part. Yet, some of these very same voices are now calling for another hostage deal, even if it means de facto ending the war in Gaza with Hamas left standing – only for the group to then rebuild, rearm, and unleash more terror. Fortunately, it is now abundantly clear that the government – and especially Netanyahu – understands this reality.
THE CURRENT government – and indeed, any Israeli government – must stand firm. To borrow from Winston Churchill: “We must never give in.” A ceasefire without total victory would be seen as a weakness by our enemies, inviting further aggression and kidnappings.
More importantly, it would diminish Israel’s standing in the eyes of its peace partners and potential future allies in the region. The path forward, while undeniably painful, is clear: Hamas must be decisively defeated. Only by demonstrating Israel’s strength, resilience, and tenacity can we hope to rehabilitate our damaged deterrence, prevent future attacks, and cement Israel’s place in the region, thus paving the way for lasting security.
In contrast, a deal “at any cost” would only embolden future kidnappings and terrorism. It would be perceived as a weakness across a region where perception often dictates reality.
Destroying Hamas in Gaza and freeing the hostages are not mutually exclusive. In fact, the closer we get to destroying Hamas, the closer the hostages get to freedom.
Israel faces an agonizing dilemma, one that no nation should have to confront: the burning desire to bring our people home conflicts with the imperative of safeguarding our nation’s future. As we grapple with this unbearable choice, we must steel ourselves for the difficult road ahead, knowing that Israel’s ultimate victory is the surest path to long-term peace and security.
This may come at a terrible cost, but the alternative – projecting weakness and inviting further attacks – would be far worse.
The writer is a former head of the International Institute for Counter-Terrorism’s office in Washington and a senior analyst at Acumen Risk Ltd., a risk-management firm.
end
ISRAEL HAMAS/EDITORIAL
Netanyahu’s firm stand on Philadelphi corridor is crucial for Israel’s security – editorial
Netanyahu’s commitment to securing the Philadelphi Corridor is crucial. Critics are wrong—leaving this area would repeat past mistakes, risking Israel’s safety and future.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that Israel intends to maintain a presence on the strategic Philadelphi Corridor between Gaza and Egypt.
He is right to stand firm on this issue.
Netanyahu’s detractors, always attributing to him the very worst motivations – in this case, that he does not care whether the hostages live or die – claim he is using this issue to torpedo an agreement that he doesn’t want with Hamas because it could collapse his government.
They are wrong.
Evacuating the corridor or relying on the Egyptians or technological solutions to prevent its use as a superhighway for smuggling weapons into Gaza would be a colossal mistake, a mistake the country has already committed once. Netanyahu is correct to define this as a red line.
Much has been written about the need for Israel to learn the lessons of October 7; these lessons are myriad, and we believe a State Commission of Inquiry needs to be established to investigate what led to such a catastrophic failure so those lessons can be learned.
PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu attends a debate in the Knesset plenum in June. The writer asks: ‘What is an apology worth if he, as prime minister of Israel, refuses to take responsibility for what happened?’ (credit: CHAIM GOLDBEG/FLASH90)
However, the lessons of October 7 are not the only ones Israel needs to learn. It also needs to learn the lessons of September 1, 2005, and the decision at the time – concretized in an agreement with Egypt – to evacuate the Philadelphi Corridor and authorize Egypt to deploy border guards to patrol the corridor on the Egyptian side.
Some members of the security establishment argued that, despite Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza in August 2005, it should hold on to the corridor to prevent the smuggling of arms and terrorists into Gaza, but then-prime minister Ariel Sharon overruled them.
Sharon argued that maintaining a military presence there was becoming more of a security liability than an asset, as soldiers patrolling the corridor were easy targets for Palestinian terrorists. He also said that keeping soldiers there would be a constant source of friction that could destabilize the region.
Sharon further claimed that only by removing the Israeli presence from the corridor could Israel say – and have the international community recognize – that it had fully withdrawn from Gaza.
That decision has proven disastrous.
The Philadelphi Corridor, as well as the border crossing at Rafah, is the route through which Hamas turned Gaza into an armed stronghold with an arsenal of weapons that would make a small NATO country blush.
Reliance on Egypt to prevent smuggling, either through tunnels or at the Rafah Crossing by bribing poorly paid and unmotivated Egyptian soldiers, was a tragic mistake.
Not only that, but it did not prevent the international community from saying that Israel continues to “occupy” Gaza and that it was the “world’s largest open-air prison.”
Those who argued adamantly against this move were cavalierly dismissed as doomsayers and told that if Israel saw that the corridor was being used to smuggle in arms and material, the IDF could easily retake it.
That turned out to be hubris. Israel saw that the corridor had become a highway for arming Gaza, but it did not take action to retake it. Why not? Because doing so is not simple, neither militarily nor in terms of international legitimacy. Now that Israel has retaken the area, it will vacate it again at its own peril.
IDF should not evacuate
If the IDF evacuates the area, whatever remains of Hamas after the war will use it – again – to rebuild its capabilities. The Philadelphi Corridor is Hamas’s lifeline. If Israel wants to prevent Hamas from reestablishing itself after the war, it needs to cut off this lifeline, and the only way to do that is for the IDF to be present.
This brings us to another important lesson, although this one is from October 7: Technological solutions to real security problems are not always the answer. One idea floated in recent days to get Israel to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor was to rely heavily on state-of-the-art sensors to monitor the area.
Israel relied on state-of-the-art sensors and other technological wizardry on October 7 to defend its borders and prevent terrorist infiltration, but how did that work out?
Israel needs its own boots on the ground to protect itself, and what is true along the border with Gaza and Lebanon is true along the border between Gaza and Egypt. Without an IDF presence along the Philadelphi Corridor, Gaza could once again turn into a killing fortress.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Israel kills 50 terrorists and hit their infrastructure.
(jerusalem Post)
IDF kills 50 terrorists, destroys Hamas infrastructure in south, central, and north Gaza
Division 162 of the IDF killed approximately 50 terrorists and destroyed Hamas infrastructure in the area of Tel al-Sultan in Rafah between Wednesday and Thursday morning, the IDF reported, including a terror cell the Nahal reconnaissance unit identified, which the Israeli air force struck.
Division 98 operated in the area of Khan Yunis and the outskirts of Deir al-Balah, where they destroyed Hamas infrastructure, discovered rockets, and killed terrorists.
Israeli Air Force fighter jets also attacked a weapons depot located near a Hamas military site that had previously served as the Salah al-Din School in Gaza City Wednesday evening.
IAF strikes weapons storage facility next to the Salah al-Din school used as a Hamas command and control center, August 21, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Furthermore, in several joint operations between the IAF and Division 252, multiple terrorist cells were targeted in the central Gaza Strip, and a booby-trapped building was destroyed.
Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) movement released a joint statement on Thursday, confirming they will reject any agreement that does not include an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip. The joint statement was issued following a meeting between PIJ Secretary-General Ziad Nakhala and Hamas Shura Council head Mohammad Darwish in Qatar’s capital, Doha.
The statement stressed the “necessity of stopping the aggression and war to which the Palestinian people are being subjected and punishing the leaders of the occupation for the crimes they are committing against humanity.”
“The position of the resistance and the Palestinian people on achieving any agreement is a comprehensive cessation of aggression, a complete withdrawal from the Strip, the start of reconstruction, and the end of the siege with a serious exchange deal,” the joint statement added.
It also held “the occupation leaders responsible for aborting the efforts undertaken by the mediators through their insistence on continuing the aggression and denying what was done in previous stages, especially the proposal approved by the movement [Hamas] on 2 July.”
Additionally, the Hamas and PIJ statement renewed the call for the immediate delivery of sufficient amounts of humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza, warning of the “consequences of the continued collective punishment” by Israel.
The statement comes as a new round of ceasefire talks – unattended by Hamas – are expected to kick off in the coming days. The meetings were initially scheduled for Wednesday in the Egyptian capital but were delayed to an unspecified date.
“The high-level Cairo meeting regarding the negotiations will be held on Saturday or Sunday. The negotiating team is working around the clock to bridge the gap, including the Philadelphia file with Egypt,” an Israeli official told Yedioth Ahronoth on Thursday.
Wednesday’s Biden-Netanyahu phone call included the US President issuing the same repeat call for achieving a quick ceasefire, but with little other substance…
Hamas has rejected a new US-backed proposal – which Washington says Israel has agreed to – for failing to address the group’s demands for a permanent ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and several other issues.
It is unclear precisely what is in the new proposal. A Hamas official toldAl-Sharq on August 20 that the proposal does not include an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border, as Hamas’ terms stipulate. Netanyahu himself confirmed on the same date that Israel would refuse any withdrawal from the Gaza–Egypt border.
The source also said the proposal demands a screening mechanism to inspect displaced Gazans who would return to the northern strip as part of an agreement – one of the many Israeli conditions complicating recent negotiations.
Some pundits have pointed out that the US President could bring real pressure to bear on the situation if he wanted to…
It also does not guarantee a permanent ceasefire. The US proposal states that “a permanent ceasefire will be discussed in the second phase within a specific limit, and if Hamas does not agree to the Israeli demands, the army will return to the war and carry out its military operations,” according to the source.
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
Assassinations on a near daily basis in Lebanon
(JerusalemPost)
Israeli Assassinations Are Near-Daily In Lebanon, Airstrikes Reaching Deeper
Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024 – 06:00 PM
The past several days have seen a significant uptick in rare Israeli airstrikes deep into Lebanese territory, with multiple airstrikes having hit the Bekaa Valley in the country’s east.
Most of the strikes were late Monday into Tuesday, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) describing that fighter jets attacked a “Hezbollah weapons storage facilities in the area of Bekaa Valley in Lebanon” – resulting in massive fireballs lighting up the night sky.
“Following the strikes, secondary explosions were identified, indicating the presence of large amounts of weapons in the facilities struck,” the Israeli army said.
These strikes occurred more than 40 miles from the Israeli border, and Israeli typically launches such rare long-range operations in response to deadly Hezbollah rocket attacks. This latest escalation came after a Hezbollah attack killed a 45-year old IDF Warrant Officer in the Western Galilee.
As for the latest IDF attacks on Bekaa, Lebanon’s health ministry said in the aftermath that eight people total, including two Syrian children, were wounded. Hezbollah then retaliated with some 200 rockets fired at Israel on Tuesday.
“Hezbollah said the attack was in response to an Israeli strike deep into Lebanon on Tuesday night that killed one and injured 19,” AP reports. “On Tuesday, Hezbollah launched more than 200 projectiles toward Israel, after Israel targeted a Hezbollah weapons depot some 80 kilometers (50 miles) from the border, a significant increase in the daily skirmishes.”
Wednesday has seen at least 50 Hezbollah rockets fired on northern Israel, reportedly in response to the IDF assassinating a top Palestinian official from the West Bank who was in southern Lebanon when his vehicle was struck. The targeted killing happened outside the southern Lebanese port city of Sidon. Al Jazeera’s correspondent details:
The strike targeted Khalil al-Maqdah, a commander in the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, a loose coalition of Palestinian groups that believe in armed resistance. The Martyrs Brigades issued a statement, calling [al-Maqdah] a commander who played a key role in supporting the Palestinian people and supporting Palestinian resistance in the West Bank.
A short while ago, we saw the Lebanese army take away the car that [al-Maqdah] was targeted in.
Israel has been escalating its attacks as of late, expanding the scope of its attacks. And clearly there’s no front line any longer.
Al Jazeera concludes after this latest that “Targeted killings are becoming a near-daily occurrence.”
Below: Hezbollah arms depot struck, far away from Israeli border…
As both sides slide closer to potential all-out war, which could eventually witness an Israeli military invasion of southern Lebanon, the AP tallies that “The exchanges have killed more than 500 people in Lebanon — mostly militants but also including around 100 civilians and non-combatants — and 23 soldiers and 26 civilians in Israel.”
— كواليس بيروت – Kawalis Beirut (@KawalisBeirut) August 19, 2024
end
ISRAEL/CANADA
100 Canadian institutions targeted in a mass bomb threat
(JerusalemPost)
Over 100 Canadian Jewish institutions, synagogues, targeted in mass bomb threat
Thornhill MP Melissa Lantsman and Eglinton-Lawrence MP Marco Mendicino gave estimates on social media that between 100-125 Jewish institutions were targeted in the mass bomb threat.
By MICHAEL STARRAUGUST 21, 2024 21:48Updated: AUGUST 21, 2024 22:14
A police officer guards the front gate to Rideau Hall, and the grounds where Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau lives in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. July 2, 2020.(photo credit: REUTERS/PATRICK DOYLE)
Over 100 Jewish institutions and synagogues across Canada were targeted with a mass email bomb threat early Wednesday morning, according to Canadian police, politicians, and Jewish institutions.
Thornhill MP Melissa Lantsman and Eglinton-Lawrence MP Marco Mendicino gave estimates on social media that between 100-125 Jewish institutions were targeted in the mass bomb threat.
The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs issued a statement assuring that consultation with law enforcement indicated that there was no imminent threat and the emails were designed to “disrupt lives.”
The Toronto Police Service said that it was aware of the threats made to Jewish organizations across Canada and would continue to assess the impact of the incident on the city. Some buildings were evacuated as a precaution.
Mount Royal MP Anthony Housefather and Hampstead Mayor Jeremy Levi stated on X that the Adath Israel–Poale Zedek–Anshei Ozeroff Congregation in the Montreal suburb was targeted. Housefather said that the building was no operating normally after security protocols were followed.
ANTISEMITIC VERBIAGE and images, from earlier this year (credit: CST)
“Those who make threats to any religious institution in Canada, whether churches, synagogues, temples, mosques, gurdwaras, etc; should be charged and prosecuted to the full extent of the law,” Housefather said on social media. “Nobody should be intimidated from entering community buildings.”
B’nai Brith Canada notified that it had been targeted in the threat, and that authorities were treating it as a hate crime and taking “immediate, decisive action.”
“In a country where all citizens should feel safe, these cowardly threats aim to terrorize our communities and erode our Canadian values,” said B’nai Brith. “The incitement we have been seeing almost daily in every city, on all our streets and in all our campuses across Canada have created this permissive environment.”
Lantsman blamed the ruling Liberal Party government for failing to address rising levels of antisemitism in the country, and demanded action ahead of the start of the school year and Jewish holidays.
Lantsman’s statement
“As schools return and the Jewish high holiday season approaches, Jewish communities deserve to feel safe and protected as they join together for the holidays,” said Lantsman.
Special Envoy for Preserving Holocaust Remembrance and Combating Antisemitism Deborah Lyons noted that the threats came on International Day of Remembrance and Tribute to the Victims of Terrorism.
“This is where unchecked incitement and celebration of terrorism leads,” Lyons said on social media. “Laws must be enforced, glorification of terror — including praise for Hamas and Oct 7th — must be dealt with seriously, and Canadians must come together to protect the Jewish community from threats and attacks.”
END
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/USA/IRAN
.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Ukrainian Missile Sets Fuel-Laden Ferry On Fire At Key Russian Port
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 02:15 PM
A large fire has been spotted raging in southern Russia’s Krasnodar region on the Black Sea, following reports that a Ukrainian missile struck a railway ferry transporting fuel tanks.
“The Kyiv regime carried out another terrorist attack on the territory of the Krasnodar region,” Russian authorities announced on social media. “A railway ferry carrying fuel tanks to Port Kavkaz was hit.”
Smoke and fire could be seen for miles issuing forth from Port Kavkaz, which is one of Russia’s largest, as it sits at a rail and ferry hub connecting Russia with the Crimean peninsula.
Port Kavkaz is also a major oil terminal, and for that reason along with being a central logistics hub has come under somewhat frequent missile and drone attack throughout the war.
“Moments ago, a Ukrainian Navy Neptune cruise missile successfully struck a Russian ferry carrying fuel tankers in the Kavkaz port, near Kerch,” a war monitor wrote on X. “A series of explosions have ripped through the port area.”
Video showing the initial moments after missile impact:
Another war monitor, Clash Report, has detailed that the missile hit the Russian ferry “Conro Trader” with fuel tanks aboard in the port of Kavkaz.
At the moment of impact the ferry went up in flames, with the explosion reaching several stories high, videos of the attack show.
Ukraine has been desperate to change the battlefield narrative given it is still steadily losing ground in the Donbass. It is seeking to do this by launching frequent attacks on Russian territory and sensitive locations.
A fresh CNN report meanwhile confirms that Ukraine forces are on the retreat from eastern front lines:
“The enemy is advancing faster than expected,” Tretiak said in a radio interview on Tuesday. “So we are trying to do as much as possible to evacuate people by the end of the week.”
While Pokrovsk is not a major city – about 60,000 people lived there before the war and many have left since the start of the full-scale invasion – it serves as a key hub for the Ukrainian military thanks to its easy access to Kostiantynivka, another military center.
🇷🇺🇺🇦 As a result of the hit, the ferry sank in the waters of the port of Kavkaz, the operational headquarters of Kuban reported.
It is also reported that there are no fires on the territory of the port itself.
The attacks on key Russian energy facilities, ports, and even airfields have become an almost daily occurrence at this point. Kiev is hoping that it will force Moscow to pull manpower from the frontlines, but that doesn’t appear to have occurred on any large scale just yet.
RUSSIA/USA/UKRAINE
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
end
.6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
Arbitrator Awards Compensation to Toronto Health-Care Workers Dismissed for Refusing COVID VACCINE
Chandra Phillip
An Ontario arbitrator has awarded termination and severance pay to 40 Toronto health-care workers who were fired for refusing COVID-19 vaccination.
Arbitrator John Stout made the decision in a case involving the Canadian Union of Public Employees Local 145 and the William Osler Health System (WOHS).
Stout said in his decision released Aug. 12 that although the hospital’s 2021 COVID-19 vaccination policy was technically lawful, his ruling considered the fact that the health-care workers didn’t act out of “malicious intent” when refusing vaccination.
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“I find that the individual grievors who were terminated from their employment by the Hospital are entitled to termination and severance pursuant to the ESA. Specifically, an individual’s refusal to become vaccinated, in the circumstances at this workplace, does not amount to ‘willful misconduct, disobedience or willful neglect of duty,’” said the ruling.
The case included 82 individuals who filed grievances over being suspended or terminated for failing to comply with the hospital’s vaccination policy, according to the decision.
WOHS had argued that the workers were terminated “with cause,” and not entitled to termination or severance pay under the Employment Standards Act (ESA).
MN newsman Boyd Huppert’s “ongoing blood cancer battle”; NOLA sports icon Ed Daniels hospitalized in California; Dodger star Freddie Freeman’s son, 3, rushed to hospital with “rare condition”; more
Fetterman diagnosed with COVID-19, experiencing mild symptoms
July 28, 2024
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has tested positive for COVID-19, with the senator [54] stating he is experiencing mild symptoms. It is unclear if Fetterman’s diagnosis will cause him to miss the last week of Senate votes before the chamber’s August recess, however, the Pennsylvania Democrat said in a post that he will be “working from home,” and “following the appropriate CDC guidance.”
If you like “News from Underground” (or hate it, but get something out of it), please read this post.
Top Chef alum Shirley Chung reveals Stage 4 cancer diagnosis: “I am a fighter”
July 27, 2024
After being diagnosed with Stage 4 tongue cancer, Shirley Chung [39] was presented with two treatment options: She could take the less common route of chemotherapy and radiation or the more effective route of removing her tongue entirely. Shirley chose the former. The Top Chef alum recalled the dilemma in a July 26 Instagram post in which she publicly announced her diagnosis. Shirley, who appeared in Top Chef: New Orleans (Season 11, 2013) and Top Chef: Charleston (Season 14, 2016), said she learned about her cancer nearly two months ago after a series of dental issues that were initially attributed to her teeth grinding. “I bit my tongue severely; I fractured my tooth and had to extract it and get an implant… we thought it was because I am a heavy teeth grinder,” she wrote in the lengthy post. “And I was too busy to see a EMT specialist. The end of May, ulcers erupted in my mouth and my oral surgeon discovered a hidden tumor under my tongue. A few days later, I was diagnosed, stage 4 tongue cancer, as cancer cells also spread into my lymph nodes.”
Comedian Christina Pazsitzky reveals cancer diagnosis during podcast
July 31, 2024
Comedian Christina Pazsitzky [48] revealed she was diagnosed with breast cancer, but has no plans to stop hosting the Your Mom’s House podcast alongside her husband, Tom Segura. On July 31, the couple spoke directly to their audience, noting how they’d been with them through the birth of their children, deaths in the family, and other personal experiences before breaking news about the cancer diagnosis. “I have very, very early stage breast cancer. Womp womp,” she said. “It’s totally treatable. The prognosis is very good. I will not die. This is not my last summer on earth. It’s highly treatable, I’m gonna be fine.” Christina did note that treating the cancer was going to mean going at it very aggressively, but because hosting the podcast brings her so much joy, she’s planning on continuing to do it as long as she can.
Over the course of her career, Victoria Arlen [29] has been open about her health issues after previously having been paralyzed for the better part of a decade. Such was the case earlier this week, when the ESPN host revealed that she had been hospitalized and narrowly avoided paralysis after suffering a health scare while on-air. In a video posted to Instagram, Arlen shared that she had suffered a Transverse Myelitis relapse while hosting a recent episode of College Football Live. After consulting with her neurologist, she was advised to go to the emergency room immediately in what proved to be a potentially life-altering measure. “A relapse was confirmed but due to quick acting doctors and [immediate] treatment catastrophic paralysis (or worse) was avoided,” Arlen wrote in the video, which showed various shots of her in the hospital, including one in which nurses aid her as she slowly takes steps with a walker. Arlen’s recent relapse comes seven months after she revealed that she had battled back from a week-long hospital stay to fill-in for Molly Qerim as the host of First Take during the holiday season.
First hired by ESPN at the age of 20 in 2015, Arlen’s health history has been well documented. At the age of 11, she was diagnosed with two rare conditions (Transverse Myelitis and Acute Disseminated Encephalomyelitis), which resulted in her losing the ability to speak, eat, walk and move. The Boston native was given little hope of survival or recovery, but fought back to re-learn those skills and eventually became a Paralympian swimmer. After nearly a decade in a wheelchair, she re-learned to walk again in 2016, one year after she was first hired by ESPN to serve as a reporter at the 2015 Special Olympics World Games. Arlen has since been a contestant on ABC’s Dancing With the Stars and has seen a growing role as a host at ESPN in recent years. While her recent relapse was obviously scary, she appears to have already bounced back with her trademark optimism and enthusiasm.
Momma Dee reveals she’s currently in the hospital as doctors are trying to figure out if she had a “light stroke”
August 1, 2024
Socialites, join us in sending love and prayers to Momma Dee who revealed that she is currently in the hospital. The OG reality star went live on Tuesday to update fans on her latest hospitalization. “Momma Dee not doing so well but I’ll be fine I’m a fighter,” she began. The 60-year-old “Love and Hip-Hop” star went on to explain that she came to the hospital for her high blood pressure and pain stemming from her left hip that needed to be replaced again 10 years ago. However, she admitted that the excruciating pain along with all the drama that she has been dealing with has just been taking a huge toll on her. “It’s a bit much. I know I’m a very strong person but I’m flesh and blood and I’m human.” She further explained, that doctors are trying to see if she had a “light stroke.” “I can’t take it y’all it’s too much, it’s too much.”
KARE 11’s Boyd Huppert to undergo cutting-edge T-cell procedure in his ongoing blood cancer battle
August 2, 2024
Minnesota – Back in early May, KARE 11 reporter and “Land of 10,000 Stories” host Boyd Huppert [62] saw his doctor for a checkup two years after he successfully underwent a bone marrow transplant in his ongoing fight against multiple myeloma. He wasn’t prepared for what happened next. “To quote my doctor, ‘Your cancer is on the move again,’ ” Huppert said. “She gave me a brochure and said, ‘Here’s the bad news, here’s what we’re going to do about it.’ I was surprised because I had been feeling great. But bone marrow biopsies don’t lie. We’re back in the fight again.” Huppert said he still felt great Friday as he was on his way to Omaha to spend the weekend with his granddaughter Tess, who was born on St. Patrick’s Day a month before his 2022 transplant. He said he feels no physical symptoms from the cancer and wouldn’t know it had returned if not for the biopsy. When he gets back home next week, Huppert will undergo a cutting-edge new treatment that he noted wasn’t even FDA approved for multiple myeloma when he was first diagnosed with the relatively rare blood cancer in September 2021.
WGNO anchor, New Orleans sports icon Ed Daniels hospitalized in California
July 27, 2024
Ed Daniels, the longtime sports director at WGNO-TV and a New Orleans native, suffered a heart attack in Southern California and is hospitalized, sources close to his family told the Times-Picayune. Daniels, 67, is in the area to cover the New Orleans Saints training camp. He has been the sports director at WGNO since 1992 — the longest-running sports director in the city — and is a two-time Louisiana Sportscaster of the Year.
Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore diagnosed with blood clots
July 28, 2024
The New England Patriots announced on Sunday that defensive tackle Christian Barmore has been diagnosed with blood clots, and there is no timetable for his return. The team said that Barmore, who turned 25 on Sunday, was evaluated and treated over the weekend at Mass General Brigham. Barmore, who agreed to a four-year contract extension worth up to $92 million in the offseason, was not spotted during Sunday’s training camp practice.
MLB’s Freddie Freeman’s Son, 3, Rushed to Hospital with Rare Condition, Says He ‘Can’t Stand or Walk’
July 26, 2024
Los Angeles Dodger star Freddie Freeman’s wife is sharing an update on their 3-year-old son Maximus, who was hospitalized with a rare condition this week. On Wednesday, July 24, the MLB star, 35, learned that during his game against the San Francisco Giants, his wife Chelsea and youngest son Maximus rushed to the emergency room when the toddler was experiencing severe pain to the point of being unable to “sit, stand or walk.” According to the mom of three’s Instagram story, their son was diagnosed with transient synovitis, which is a condition also known as irritable hip. In a later Instagram Story, Chelsea revealed that Freddie met his family at the hospital “straight from the game,” explaining that their son, “stopped eating or drinking and was very lethargic.Everything is consistent with transient synovitis. He still cannot bear any weight to stand or walk so we will be closely monitoring him.”
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
“If Trump Wins, The Fed Will Stop Cutting At 4.50%”
THURSDAY, AUG 22, 2024 – 09:25 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
We need it like a Jackson Hole in the head
Unlike the key BLS revisions to April 2023-March 2024 payrolls estimates, at -818K the largest drop since the Global Financial Crisis, today’s Global Daily was released at the same time to all – nobody can call to get it early. Losing an average 68K from each monthly jobs report changes the macro picture; subtracting ‘migrant encounters’ starting in October 2020 as proxy for illegal immigration, the peak in cumulative post-Covid net payrolls growth was 7.23m in February 2023, then drifted lower, to just 6.38m as of July; or, does the BLS revision not matter because illegal arrivals are doing the jobs off book rather than US workers? But tell that to the US workers, if so.
Either way, I wear my “DM = EM” (developed markets = emerging markets) T-shirt and wish those thinking they know what’s going on in the US economy from looking at Bloomberg ‘good luck’. I’ve lived in and covered many EM, with eccentricities, conspiracies, and oddities: let’s see how those who’ve only lived in and covered DM cope if/as this structural shift continues.
Which includes the Fed. Their latest minutes show the vast majority of the FOMC opened the door to a rate cut in September, and a few were prepared to do it in July. Our Fed watcher Philip Marey has slightly revised his call ahead of tomorrow’s Jackson Hole central bank Powell-wow (which he previews). Philip still expects the Fed to start cutting in September, which he was saying while the market was screaming months randomly starting from “JANUARY!”. He still expects four 25bp cuts. However, he now thinks these will be in September, November, December, and January rather than stretched out until mid-2025. This is still due to “stag”, not “flation”. We were one of the first banks to forecast a US recession and remain one of the last to keep a mild recession pencilled in. Yet assuming Trump wins the election, the inflationary impact of his economic policies would force the FOMC to stop cutting at 4.50%. Most in the market are screaming lower Fed Funds levels randomly, starting from the figure which pushes asset prices up, or assuming the Fed will do it for them.
As the Financial Times asked yesterday, ‘Whatever happened to the wisdom of the bond market?’ While FX trades like an ADHD toddler who just ingested a 2-litre bottle of soda and a box of hard candy, and equities like a love-struck teenager who thinks a happy ending always looms, bonds are supposed to trade like a boring professor with a pipe. Yet due to algos, the 1987-2020 Greenspan of market time, and the post-2008 ego-trip where, like ugly politicians, bonds were surrounded by adoring crowds for the first time, now rates markets are all “RATE CUTS!”
In pandering to that, the Fed have arguably helped transmogrify the US from industrialised, with a vast middle class, vast open land, vast strategic strength, low public debt, and a low cost of living to financialised, with a shrunken middle class, unaffordable housing, fading strategic strength, high public debt, and a high cost of living. Likewise, the BLS changed from one that accurately measured payrolls (and other series) and knew how to release embargoed data on time, to one that doesn’t do either.
Meanwhile, in a US election cycle with eccentricities, conspiracies, and oddities word has it RFK, Jr. will drop out of the race and endorse Trump on Friday, boosting his odds. Wags have it for a senior admin role like the NIH or even the CIA(!) My suspicion is DM analysts will end up doing what good EM analysts have to re: such political machinations – a version of Fawlty Towers “Don’t mention the war!” But the key is still to understand what’s going on, even if it isn’t written about.
Yet in the EM Middle East, war must be mentioned. Days ago, DM market headline-writers were saying an Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal “was close”. Those who know the players and their motivations were saying it wasn’t; and at time of writing, it’s still more likely that these talks collapse than succeed. At which point, a regional escalation in the war is likely.
Israel says it has effectively defeated Hamas in Rafah, but it and Hezbollah are already launching larger attacks on each other deeper into new territory even as they wait for the official conclusion of the ceasefire talks one way or the other. Iran is also still waiting to launch its delayed retaliatory strike on Israel, and some are not ruling out Israel pre-empting that with an attack of its own. Of course, we’ve heard similar calls before of late, and it’s possible both sides might extend and pretend a while longer. Ultimately, however, this is not a geopolitical problem that can be solved with the strategic equivalent of “RATE CUTS!” That’s not how real life works; and eventually real life comes to bite those who rely on “RATE CUTS!” as solutions.
With global energy markets focused on sagging Chinese demand, it’s possible even a Middle East war might not have a lasting upwards impact on oil prices unless Iranian and Saudi supply, or the Straits of Hormuz, become involved. That’s not an immediate risk, but were a wider war to start, it’s not going to necessarily stop within a geography that pleases markets. That’s something DM analysts who have experienced little EM geopolitical ‘sharp end’ tend to be slow in pricing for.
To summarise, as DM central bankers meet up at Jackson Hole, they are unsure of the labor market outlook, with risks looking more in one direction – down.
They are unsure of the inflation outlook, with risks perhaps in both directions – up and down. They are unsure of the stability of financial markets after the recent lunatic swings prompted by just a 15bps move from the BOJ.
Moreover, they are unsure of the geopolitical outlook, which informs all of the aforementioned.
They will notice that China just opened an anti-subsidy probe into EU dairy and pork in retaliation for looming EU tariffs on Chinese EVs: welcome to how global trade now ‘works’! More of this to come: much more.
They must also have noticed the ultra-normcore WEF warning: “Make no mistake – the US-driven post-Cold War era ended a while ago (and realistically America’s 2024 election won’t change this). Enduring global leadership, democratic ideals, globalization and liberal values have all been notably challenged and superpowers are overstretched. This is a global legitimacy crisis… This period of muddling through means anything can happen in our post-pandemic era. Look for global risks to be further exacerbated by unexpected, destabilizing shock events.”
As such, any messaging from Powell that can be taken as either synonym or homonym for “RATE CUTS!”, prompting further volatility and financialisation-over-real-economy activity, is something we need like a Jackson Hole in the head.
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
THIS will be a costly strike for Canada
(zerohedge)
Canadian Freight Rail Shuts Down As Labor Talks Collapse: Strike Declared, “Members Head To Picket Lines”
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 07:45 AM
An unprecedented rail stoppage is underway after Canada’s largest railroads, Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, locked out more than 9,000 union rail employees at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on Thursday. Simultaneously, the union declared a strike, escalating fears that this rail disruption could wreak havoc across North America’s complex supply chains.
“Canadian National has formally locked out employees represented by the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference (TCRC) as of Aug. 22 at 00:01 ET, after the union did not respond to another offer by CN in a final attempt to avoid a labor disruption,” Canadian National wrote in an early AM press release.
Canadian National continued, “This offer improved wages and would have seen employees work less days in a month by aligning hours of service in the collective agreement with federally mandated rest provisions. The offer also proposed a pilot project for hourly rates and scheduled shifts on a portion of the network as CN continues to believe this is a better and more predictable framework for our employees,” adding, “Without an agreement or binding arbitration, CN had no choice but to finalize a safe and orderly shutdown and proceed with a lockout.”
Canadian Pacific Kansas City issued a similar press release, indicating it had “bargained in good faith, but despite our best efforts, it is clear that a negotiated outcome with the TCRC is not within reach.”
After Thursday’s deadline elapsed, TCRC wrote on X, “Members should now be manning the picket lines (0001 ET), and signs should indicate lockout/strike.”
Despite months of good faith negotiations on the part of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, parties remain far apart, and both CN and CPKC have began their lockout of 00:01 today. #canlab
‼️Despite months of good faith negotiations on the part of the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference, parties remain far apart, and both CN and CPKC have began their lockout of 00:01 today.#canlabhttps://t.co/rXR9QymzVW
A prolonged labor action could severely disrupt Canada’s complex rail network, sending shockwaves through the U.S. economy and potentially reigniting inflation.
Bloomberg noted, “As a result, some cargo has been rerouted to ports on the US west coast, which are already dealing with container volumes approaching pandemic records.”
Brendan LaCerda, a senior economist with Moody’s Analytics, wrote earlier this week that prolonged labor stoppages would disrupt supplies of grain, fertilizer, lumber, and steel, potentially raising food prices, construction materials, and autos.
“Significant two-way trade and deeply integrated supply chains between Canada and the United States mean that any significant rail disruption will jeopardize the livelihoods of workers across multiple industries on both sides of the border,” U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Suzanne Clark wrote in a statement.
Earlier this week, Goldman’s Jordan Alliger told clients, “While a longer strike duration period is a possibility, we think history makes the probability of a shorter strike period much more likely (i.e., less than a week and more likely a few days of work stoppage once strike occurs); that said, the ongoing phased network slowdowns, shipper diversions, potential for heightened supply chain congestion, and the inevitable time it will take for Canadian rails to fully reboot network operations will likely keep near-term performance muted.”
Alliger said, “Using 2023’s total trade value figure of ~$6.7tn as a base proxy (transborder + US-international) would imply ~$67bn-$134bn of annually disrupted trade, which would mean potential trade disruptions of ~$180mn-$370mn per day should Canadian rail strikes ensue.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1100 DOWN 0.0022
USA/ YEN 146.64 UP 0.914 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES REIGNITES//
GBP/USA 1.3107 UP 0.0016
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3592 UP .0009 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 9 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 10.08 PTS OR 0.35%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 249.99 PTS OR 1.44%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.29%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 249.99 PTS OR 1.44 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 10.08 PTS OR 0.35%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.29%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 259.2312 PTS OR 0.69%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2502.40
silver:$29.52
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 101.23 UP 32 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1433 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1457)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.92 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.886
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.863% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.122 UP 7 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.990 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2477.10
SILVER AT 11;00: 28.43
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 4.57 PTS OR 0.06%
German Dax : CLOSED UP44.44 PTS OR 0.24%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 0.61 PTS OR 0.01%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.40 OR 0.37%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 1.48 OR 0.00
WTI Oil price 72.76 12EST/
Brent Oil: 76,65 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.50 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 99/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2395 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.995 UP 10 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.094 UP 7 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1109 DOWN 0.0045 OR 45 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3048 DOWN 0.0005 OR 5 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.962 UP 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.886
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.24 UP 1.121 YEN DOWN 112 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3607 UP 0.0028//CDN dollar UP 28 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 72.93
Brent OIL: 77..00
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 3.851
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS PTS to 4.132%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 9 PTS AT 4.008
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.095 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.41 UP 50 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.92 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 91.50 DOWN 0 AND 1/100 roubles
GOLD 2,479.80. 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.82 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 177.18 PTS OR 0.43%
NASDAQ DOWN 333.00 PTS OR 1.68 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 17,62 UP 1.35 PTS OR 8.30%
GLD: $229.37 DOWN 2.78 OR 1.20%
SLV/ $26.39 DOWN 0.56 OR 2.08%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Stocks & Bonds Slammed Ahead Of J-Hole As FedSpeak Slows Rate-Cut Euphoria
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 04:00 PM
As the world and his pet-rabbit awaits tomorrow’s words from Jay Powell (which is largely moot now given the FOMC Minutes), today’s market action (stocks, bonds, and gold down; dollar up) was brought to you by notably less sanguine FedSpeak (walking the market back from four cut expectations) and disappointing macro data (reviving growth scares).
Continuing jobless claims hovering at multi-year highs (initial claims low), a blip higher in existing home sales (off record lows with new record high prices), a big puke in Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index, a dismally weak manufacturing sentiment survey…
Source: Bloomberg
…combined with commentary from FOMC members (as reported by media) that while they believe it’s appropriate for the US central bank to begin lowering interest rates soon, the pace of subsequent cutting should be “gradual” and “methodical.”
Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she’s not seeing any “big red flags” in the economy.
That’s the context in which I do see it soon being appropriate to begin easing policy,” she added.
“I think a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go,” Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker says about the pace of interest-rate cuts.
“For me, barring any surprise in the data we’ll get between now and then, I think we need to start this process,” Harker says in a Reuters interview published Thursday, referring to the central bank’s upcoming September policy meeting.
…both of which suggest the path to lower rates may be a more gradual one than some in the markets may have been hoping for…
The decline in ‘dovishness’ removed some of the Fed Put hype sent stocks lower today – most notably led by Nasdaq (as the selling started right as the US cash session opened). The Dow was the prettiest horse in the glue factory today (but all the majors were notably lower as tomorrow’s Jackson Hole speech looms)…
After two days of treading water at key resistance, Mag7 stocks tumbled today (the first down day since Aug 5th)…
Source: Bloomberg
For context, Nasdaq rallied up to its pre-plunge levels and has stalled…
VIX rallied up to 18 today but more notably ‘0-DTE VIX’ exploded higher ahead of tomorrow’s event risk at J-Hole…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were all higher today (+6-8bps across the curve), lifting the whole curve back above pre-CPI yield lows from last week. The 2Y yield is back up to 4.00%.
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rebounded on the less than dovish talk…
Source: Bloomberg
…and that sent gold prices back below $2500…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rebounded off early August lows today with WTI back to a $73 handle…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin faded from yesterday’s highs near $62,000, but held above the $60,000 Maginot Line for now…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Kamala’s honeymoon is fading as PredictIt shows the gap over Trump is now at its lowest since Aug 5th…
Source: Bloomberg
And one more thing… a reminder that the last few years has seen buying into J-Hole and a ‘sell the news’ event after…
Source: Bloomberg
…did that start today?
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Jobless claims continue to be near their 3 yr highs
(zerohedge)
Continuing Jobless Claims Hover Near 33-Month Highs
THURSDAY, AUG 22, 2024 – 08:38 AM
Initial jobless claims continues to drift along in the same range it has been in for three years (with NSA claims literally near record lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
The decline in SA and NSA claims appears driven by the normalization of Texas claim post-Beryl…
Source: Bloomberg
But we note that continuing jobless claims remains at its highest since Nov 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
With all the attention piled on to initial claims to support bullish-narrative-supporting thesis, how the hell can The Fed then turn around and cut rates to ‘save the labor market’ before it’s too late?
end
‘Soft Landing Scenario Less Convincing’: US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 8-Mo Lows
THURSDAY, AUG 22, 2024 – 09:59 AM
S&P Global’s Flash PMI data for August signals the continued divergence between US manufacturing (slump) and Services (survive).
Flash US Services Business Activity Index at 55.2 (July: 55.0) – 2-month high.
Flash US Manufacturing Output Index at 47.8 (July: 50.5) – 14-month low.
Flash US Manufacturing PMI at 48.0 (July: 49.6) – 8-month low.
And all that as ‘hard’ macro data is collapsing…
Source: Bloomberg
Commenting on the data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:
“The solid growth picture in August points to robust GDP growth in excess of 2% annualized in the third quarter, which should help allay near-term recession fears. Similarly, the fall in selling price inflation to a level close to the pre-pandemic average signals a ‘normalization’ of inflation and adds to the case for lower interest rates.
“This ‘soft-landing’ scenario looks less convincing, however, when you scratch beneath the surface of the headline numbers.Growth has become increasingly dependent on the service sector as manufacturing, which often leads the economic cycle, has fallen into decline. The manufacturing sector’s forward-looking orders-to-inventory ratio has fallen to one of the lowest levels since the global financial crisis.
“At the same time, service sector growth is constrained by hiring difficulties, which continue to push up pay rates and means overall input cost inflation remains elevated by historical standards.
“The policy picture is therefore complicated, and hence it’s easy to see why policymakers are taking a cautious approach to cutting interest rates. However, on balance the key takeaways from the survey are that inflation is continuing to slowly return to normal levels and that the economy is at risk of slowing amid imbalances.”
Finally, as the chart at the top shows, we’ve seen this kind of divergence before and it did not end well for Services.
end
Existing Home Sales “Still Sluggish” – Weakest July Since 2010, Record Low Affordability
24 – 10:25 AM
US Existing Home Sales rose (+1.3%MoM) for the first time in five months in July, but remain down 2.5% YoY (the last time home sales were up YoY was July 2021)…
Source: Bloomberg
“Despite the modest gain, home sales are still sluggish,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a prepared statement.
“But consumers are definitely seeing more choices, and affordability is improving due to lower interest rates.”
Excepot it’s not Mr. Yun!
For context, here is were existing home sales SAAR are… the weakest July print since 2010…
Source: Bloomberg
While the inventory of available homes picked up slightly in July to 1.33 million, it’s still well below pre-pandemic levels of more than 1.9 million. That represents 4 months’ supply at the current sales pace.
Yun said on a call with reporters that an almost 20% year-over-year increase in inventory indicates some homeowners are willing to surrender their 3% mortgages and list their properties.
Individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 13% of homes, down from 16% a month earlier. First-time buyers made up 29% of purchases, matching June.
The NAR’s report showed 62% of the homes sold were on the market for less than a month in July – compared with 65% in June – while nearly a quarter sold above the list price, also down from the prior month.
Properties remained on the market for 24 days on average in July, compared with 22 days in June and a further sign of softening demand.
Finally, while median existing home prices dipped very modestly MoM, they are at their highest ever for a July (up 4.2% YoY)…
Source: Bloomberg
…which leaves us wondering – what exactly does The Fed think rate-cuts are going to do to home prices (and inflation and affordability?)
end
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Kennedy to endorse Trump. He is extremely upset with his democrat party
(zerohedge)
RFK Jr To Endorse Trump On Friday Morning
Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024 – 02:31 PM
Update (5:15pm ET): As we speculated earlier, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. indeed plans to end his independent presidential campaign and endorse former President Donald Trump, NBC news reported citing two sources familiar with the plans.
The sources cautioned that talks are ongoing, but there will be clarity by the end of the week. One of the sources said the campaigns are working toward a joint appearance.
The decision to drop out will end the most prominent third-party candidacy in the 2024 race. Kennedy announced Wednesday that he will give a campaign speech addressing “his path forward,” days after his running mate said the campaign faced a choice about staying in the 2024 election or dropping out to back Donald Trump.
Kennedy’s campaign announced he will hold the event in Phoenix on Friday. Trump, meanwhile, is also set to host an event on Friday night, in Glendale, a Phoenix suburb.
Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy’s running mate, said Tuesday that the ticket was weighing two options. One was to stay in the race and “risk” a Harris-Walz presidency, as she put it in a podcast interview, while the other option was to drop out of the race and “join forces” with Trump.
Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio, told NBC News in an interview Wednesday that “there’s been a lot of communication back and forth” between Kennedy and his campaign.
“I haven’t spoken to RFK personally, but I know there’s been a lot of communication back and forth between RFK, between the campaign, between this campaign,” Vance said. “Look, our argument to RFK, and I’ll make it right now, because, of course, he hasn’t dropped out yet, is, look: If you want a Democratic Party that protected American workers and stood for strong borders, maybe disagreed with Republicans on things like tax policy, that party doesn’t exist anymore.”
* * *
Amid a flurry of speculation that he will endorse Donald Trump (following news reports – which he since denied – that he failed to clinch a cabinet job with Kamala Harris in exchange for his endorsement there), Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. said he will make a speech in Phoenix on Friday, his campaign announced, as the independent presidential candidate considers whether to drop out of the race and endorse former President Donald Trump.
The campaign said Kennedy will “address the nation” Friday morning, without sharing details of what he will be speaking about.
Kennedy’s speech will come days after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, said in a podcast interview on Tuesday that the campaign is considering whether to “join forces” with Trump to prevent the “risk” of Vice President Kamala Harris winning the election.
Overnight, in an interview Trump said that he would certainly consider a cabinet position for RFK Jr in exchange for an endorsement.
“I would love that endorsement because I’ve always liked him” Trump said.
Then when asked if he would also consider adding him to the administration, Trump responded that “I like him a lot I respect him a lot uh I probably would if something like that would happen… He’s very different kind of a guy, very smart guy, and yeah I would be honored by that endorsement certainly.”
“He’s a brilliant guy he’s a very smart guy I’ve known him for a long time I didn’t know he was thinking about getting out but if he is thinking about getting out certainly I’d be open to it“
On Friday we will learn if RFK Jr is also open to it, with some speculating that RFK would make a great head of Trump’s CIA, which would be ironic considering what the CIA did to JFK…
end
Judge Rules RFK Jr. Can Sue Biden Admin Over Censorship After Supreme Court Rejects Challenge From States
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 12:55 PM
A federal judge on Tuesday ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. can continue to pursue his lawsuit against the Biden administration over censorship at the direction of the government.
The decision comes after a June ruling by the Supreme Court, which established who can sue the Biden administration for violating their First Amendment rights when government officials pressured social media companies to suppress free speech did not have standing to sue.
According to District Court Judge Terry Doughty, Kennedy meets the standard set by the Supreme Court because there is “ample evidence” to show he was censored at the direction of government actors, and is at “substantial risk” that the censorship will continue, the Daily Caller reports.
Under the Supreme Court’s Murthy v. Missouri ruling, Doughty explained that “a court must make specific findings that a particular defendant pressured a particular platform to censor a particular topic before the platform suppressed a particular plaintiff’s speech on that topic.”
Kennedy was named by one of the “Disinformation Dozen” – and was specifically targeted by the government over what they alleged was COVID-19 misinformation, Doughty noted in his ruling – adding that there is “not much dispute” that Kennedy, and his organization – Children’s Health Defense, were “were specifically targeted by the White House, the Office of Surgeon General, and CISA [Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency].”
BREAKING: RFK Jr. and CHD Get Green Light to Sue Biden Administration for Censorship A Louisiana district court ruled late Tuesday that plaintiffs
@RobertKennedyJr and Children’s Health Defense have the legal right to sue the Biden administration for pressuring tech giants to censor their social media posts. “Judge Terry Doughty carefully and clearly analyzed the law and facts and applied the framework from the U.S. Supreme Court’s recent decision in Murthy v. Missouri regarding standing. The court also firmly found in plaintiffs’ favor that plaintiffs had not waived — and indeed had affirmatively raised — direct censorship claims in addition to listener claims.”
@maryhollandnyc said Doughty found that the government’s conduct is traceable to direct statements and instructions to social media platforms, including Facebook, Instagram and YouTube. Doughty also reviewed a series of meetings and emails between the
@WhiteHouse and Twitter and Facebook, which occurred throughout 2021, in which those companies agreed to de-amplify, place warnings on or fully censor posts containing so-called “vaccine misinformation,” regardless of whether the information was true. “Facebook admitted that although the CHD’s posts did not violate its policies, it would suppress content that originated from CHD,” Doughty wrote.
“The Court finds that there is further risk for future risk injury here because Kennedy is a 2024 presidential candidate,” wrote Doughty. “For example, if, hypothetically, the FBI saw a piece of information related to the 2024 presidential election posted by the Kennedy campaign on social media that it deemed to be ‘misinformation,’ then it reached out to CISA, who worked closely with the EIP, who then removed the posts, Kennedy would be censored by the action of one Government Defendant in response to another.”
🚨 BREAKING: RFK Jr. and CHD Get Green Light to Sue Biden Administration for Censorship
A Louisiana district court ruled late Tuesday that plaintiffs @RobertKennedyJr and Children’s Health Defense have the legal right to sue the Biden administration for pressuring tech giants… pic.twitter.com/54ZjXdsivt
Doughty granted Kennedy an injunction in February blocking multiple federal agencies from coercing or significantly encouraging platforms to suppress protected speech, which he put on hold pending the Supreme Court’s ruling. In response to the government’s appeal, the Fifth Circuit in July sent the case back to the district court to rule on the plaintiffs’ standing. -Daily Caller
According to New Civil Liberties Alliance litigation counsel Jenin Younes, “It is gratifying that Judge Doughty found RFK, Jr. and Children’s Health Defense have standing, even under the draconian requirements the Supreme Court developed in Murthy,” adding “We are assessing next steps for the Murthy plaintiffs in light of Judge Doughty’s opinion, which will also assist us in crafting discovery requests to ensure we can demonstrate standing going forward.”
Real estate continues to falter in the uSA
(zerohedge)
1 Million Square Foot Office Building In Center City Philly Appraised For 25% Less Than 2021
Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 05:45 AM
The 1 million square foot office building just blocks from City Hall at 18th & Market streets in Philadelphia, saw its appraisal value crushed 25% from $282.1 million in 2021 to $211.3 million this year, according to a new report from Bisnow.
Citing Morningstar, the report notes that Shorenstein Properties’ office space, about 80% occupied, has been in special servicing for a year, with another property at 1700 Market St. added earlier this year.
A Kroll Bond Rating Agency report reveals Philadelphia’s office market had a 52% stress rate in Q1, the fourth-highest in the nation.
David Putro, a senior vice president at Morningstar, told Bisnow: “We’re seeing New York, Chicago and San Francisco’s offices with 70% drops from the original appraisal over time to the reappraisal. So, it’s not the end of the world.”
Mike Brotschol, a managing director at KBRA Analytics, however, said: “We have concern with the future performance of roughly 52% of the $4.77B in Philadelphia office CMBS.”
Bisnow continued, writing that Chicago leads in CMBS office stress at 75%, followed by Denver at 65% and Houston at 57%. The stress rate reflects loans in default or at high risk of default.
Philadelphia’s 1818 Market isn’t the only troubled office property on the city’s main business corridor. Others face challenges, with varying prospects for recovery, according to the report.
1515 Market St. and 1500 Market St. have fallen to 73% occupancy and into receivership, respectively. 1515 Market St. is on a loan watchlist as Temple University, which occupies a quarter of the space, decides on renewal.
Putro concluded: “In those spaces, financial services, professional services like those, tend to be the ones that are really evaluating their space needs. So it’s not a particular tenant, but it’s sort of just the evolution of what is ‘back to work’ as a whole.”
Speaking about 2400 Market St, which remains 99% occupied, Putro added: “That building’s 2023 net cash flow was off by about 2% from the time [its loan was] underwritten. I think most office owners at this moment would love to have a building that’s only 2% down over three years.”
end
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
SWAMP STORIES
Biden’s Commerce Secretary is a nut job
(zerohedge)
Staggering Incompetence: Biden’s Commerce Secretary Is “Not Familiar” With The Bureau Of Labor
Wednesday, Aug 21, 2024 – 10:10 PM
We are too speechless to even offer any snarky, sarcastic commentary because, frankly, this is beyond idiotic.
Asked about today’s near record downward jobs revision, Biden’s Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo – who we repeat, is the Secretary of the Department of Commerce which is responsible among other things, for the Bureau of Economic Analysis – said she “doesn’t believe” the revision because, somehow Trump was behind it. But when she was informed that the data comes from her own administration, namely the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, Raimondo’s response was simply legendary: “I am not familiar with that.”
Harris-Biden Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo says she doesn't believe new government data that shows almost a million of the jobs the Harris-Biden admin claimed to have "created" don't actually exist.
And there you have it: the person who is at the top of the US propaganda data collection and distribution pyramid is, checks notes, “not familiar” with the Bureau of Labor.
To this, all one can ask the former Governor of Rhode Island and current “Commerce Secretary” is what would you say… you do here?
KING REPORT
The King Report August 22, 2024 Issue 7311
Independent View of the News
The BLS benchmark NFP revision is -818,000; the 2nd worst revision in history (2009 had -824k). Bidenomics! Final figures are due in 2025. But that’s not the whole story; the BLS fudged the revision. The BLS delayed the expected 10:00 ET release by about 40 minutes. Here’s possibly why:
BBG’s @AnnaEconomist: So, the BLS prelim benchmark revision is -818k (in line with our 800k forecast). But the 1Q QCEW county data (next post) implies a bigger revision of -958k. To put this in context, the typical revision is 0.1% of payrolls…the past year was 0.5%, 5x as large.
The BLS: County Employment and Wages Summary From March 2023 to March 2024, employment increased in 300 of the 369 largest U.S. counties, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In March 2024, national employment increased to 153.6 million, a 1.3-percent increase over the year, as measured by the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Monterey, CA, and St. Johns, FL, had the largest over-the-year increases in employment, with gains of 4.8 percent each… https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cewqtr.nr0.htm
This is devastating for Harris, Dems, and Biden’s legacy. Plus, it feeds the ‘they are liars’ narrative.
@YossiGestetner: Remember all these BETTER THAN EXPECTED jobs reports (which helped drive the market higher)? Ah. Around a third of all those jobs gained were, well, never gained. Hyped up numbers by Biden’s Cooking Machine. The steepest downward revisions in over a decade.
PS – Why should anyone believe the BLS’s CPI data? GOP Rep. @laurenboebert: It’s time to realize that almost all the economy numbers being touted by this regime are fake. More than 540,000 tech workers have lost their jobs in the last 3 years alone. All you have to do is go to the grocery store to know how bad the Biden-Harris economy is doing.
@TrumpWarRoom: President Trump addresses (at NC rally) the Bureau of Labor Statistics admitting that 818K jobs that Kamala and Biden claim to have “created” do not exist: “The Harris-Biden administration has been caught fraudulently manipulating job statistics to hide the true extent of the economic ruin they’ve inflicted on America.”https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1826325681099141171
@INArteCarloDoss: BLS Birth-Death model uses past difference between QCEW and payroll surveys to extrapolate the recent pace of business formation. The weaker QCEW data => pace of payroll growth adjustments trend down. In other words, there is a self-fulfilling dynamics by which these downward revisions should imply a higher risk of weaker NFP prints going forward.
@greg_price11: Reporter: Nearly a million jobs “created” since Kamala took office do not exist. (Sec of Commerce)Raimondo: “I don’t believe it because I’ve never heard Trump say anything truthful.” Reporter: “It is from the Bureau of Labor.”Raimondo: “I’m not familiar with that.” (Clown show!) https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1826378177754935482
@zerohedge: Biden’s commerce secretary Gina Raimondo (who runs the US Bureau of Economic Analysis)is “not familiar” with the Bureau of Labor Statistics which makes up the monthly jobs report
@YossiGestetner: Hahahaha! The Biden/Harris Commerce Secretary thinks that the 818,000 revised jobs number is a Trump Talking Point and not a data point from the Admin of which she is a part of! She is Commerce Secretary, FFS! Should know a thing or two about the economy. Incompetent Cabinet!
Macy’s fell as much as 14% because it cut its full year sales forecast by 2.2% to $22.4B.
Bond Vigilantes: Pascal Michaillat and Emmanuel Saez – both of the University of California – have developed a new recession indicator, somewhat an extension of the Sahm rule, which combines both job vacancy rates and unemployment data. This indicator on average detects a recession 1.4 months after it has started (versus 2.6 months for the Sahm rule) and has perfectly identified all recessions since 1930 (the Sahm rule is only fully reliable from 1960 onwards). You can read more in their paper here; however, in a nutshell, when their indicator reaches 0.3, a recession may have started, and when it reaches 0.8, a recession has started. Post the July unemployment data, their indicator is at 0.5,suggesting a 40% probability that the US economy is now in a recession. Further, Michaillat and Saez note that it may have been in a recession since March… (Is a revision needed due to NFP revisions?) https://bondvigilantes.com/blog/2024/08/the-sahm-rule-has-triggered-markets-please-prepare-for-landing/
ESUs vacillated between tiny losses and gains from the Nikkei opening until they rallied after 20:00 ET. ESUs hit a peak of 5630.75 at the 1 ET Nikkei close. After a plodding decline to 5619.25 at 5:01 ET, ESUs traded in a tiny range until they broke higher at 6:25 ET. ESUs hit 5648.25 one minute before the scheduled release of the NFP revisions. When the release didn’t appear, ESUs sank to 5623.50 at 10:13 ET. After a moderate rebound, ESUs got quiet. They exploded higher when the NFP revision appeared.
ESUs hit a daily high of 5655.25 at 10:41 ET. Defensive asset allocators appeared; ESUs tumbled to a daily low of 5613.50 at 12:01 ET. USUs went from 124 18/32 to 125 11/32 from 10:41 ET to 11:51 ET.
A Noon Balloon appeared; it morphed into the afternoon rally on buying for expected dovish FOMC Minutes from the 7/31 meeting, due at 14:00 ET. The minutes were dovish: a “vast majority” of members expect a September rate cut. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20240731.htm
ESUs soared to 5651.00 at 14:32 ET. ESUs then sank to 5626.00 at 15:22 ET on trader selling. Traders got long for the late manipulation. ESUs rose to 5644.25 at 16:00 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds rallied modestly. The DJTA rallied sharply. Rate cut hopes and buying for the Jackson Hole soiree overcame defensive asset allocation.
Negative aspects of previous session Recession angst unleashed defensive asset allocation; but USUs were only +8/32 at the NYSE close. The dollar sank again; the yen/$ hit 144.26 at 14:27 ET.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Was the ESU manipulator in the midday thru afternoon rally? Is another round of yen carry trade unwind looming? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5615.03 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5632.68; 5591.57
@EricTrump: If Google, Apple, Microsoft, Meta and Proctor & Gamble all went out business — and laid everyone off every employee — that is still less than the 818,000 jobs that just “vanished”…
@JonathanTurley: The Washington Post is reporting that “the 81-year-old had shown signs of slipping for a long time, but his inner circle worked to conceal his decline.” That is a rather curious and belated observation. The Post leaves the obvious implications unstated… First, Kamala Harris was part of that “inner circle,” something that she is emphasizing on the campaign trial. That would mean that she also concealed his decline but denying it publicly… Second, since many were long writing about the decline, it begs the question of the near total lack of interest in that issue by the media, including the Washington Post. Many professed to the public that Biden was sharp as a tack… Finally, there is fact that the political and medical staff at the White House repeatedly denied any decline to the media. Yet, the Post now rather matter-of-factly admits that it was all a knowing lie. Just another shrug and spin in our post-truth political environment.
Instead of the usual big boost from a convention, Kamala Harris is getting a big boot. After the Obamas’ hypocritical and divisive speeches on Tuesday night (more below), Trump’s odds to win increased.
@Polymarket tweeted at 11:31 PM EET on Tue, Aug 20, 2024: Trump’s lead in the odds is up to 5%.https://t.co/uDguZkd116 Before the conventional, Harris’s lead was 10% in Polymarket odds.
@charliekirk11: Democrat Chicago Alderman Raymond Lopez — Democrats aren’t winning any new voters at this convention: “I highly doubt it. I think this is all playing to their own base. Not trying to recruit new people.” https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1826115327186665852
@TrumpWarRoom: PRESIDENT TRUMP ON THE DNC: They mentioned my name 271 times. They mentioned the economy like 12 times. They don’t talk about the border. Our great border czar doesn’t talk about the border. We’ve driven them CRAZY. They have Trump derangement syndrome. https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1826326337591664996
Trump campaign in epic troll creates Kamala Harris policy website — citing her lack of onehttps://trib.al/nknHJnn
The Bureau of Labor Statistics provided at least three Wall Street firms with a highly anticipated US jobs number that was delayed on the agency’s website – BBG 18:08 ET On Wednesday, BLS didn’t post closely watched payroll revisions on its site until more than a half hour past its 10 a.m. scheduled publication time in Washington… at least three banks — Mizuho Financial Group Inc., BNP Paribas SA and Nomura Holdings Inc. — called the agency and managed to get the numbers before 10:33 a.m., when the data were officially posted online…
Wall Street Outraged Over Latest Epic F*** Up By Biden’s Labor Department Frustration turned to anger and outrage on Wall Street as word spread from trading desk to trading desk that the BLS was releasing the number to some firms over the phone!… “I don’t wonder that people are upset,” Nancy Tengler, the chief executive officer of Laffer Tengler Investments. “The whole thing reeks of incompetence.“… https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/wall-street-outraged-over-latest-epic-fk-bidens-labor-department
Today – The trading dynamics remain largely unchanged. Traders will remain exceedingly bullish on rate cuts and Powell’s speech on Friday. However, the reality of a worse US jobs picture could create more defensive asset allocation. Will the ESU manipulator be unleashed due to the NFP revision?
Huge negative developing: The dollar sank again on Wednesday; the yen is 144 and change, the level that provoked the yen carry trade panic a week and change ago. We warned when the yen carry trade carnage was occurring that Fed rate cuts could exacerbate the unwind. It’s up to the Fed now.
Expected economic data: July Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.03; Initial Jobless Claims 232k, Continuing Claims 1.87m; Aug S&P 500 US Mfg. 49.5, Services PMI 54, Composite 53.2; July Existing Home Sales 3.93m; Aug KC Fed Mfg. Activity -9; The 3-day KC Fed Jackson Hole soiree begins.
@TrumpWarRoom: PRESIDENT TRUMP: “There has been a report that the job numbers… were fraudulent… 600,000 to 1 million less… That’s a terrible insult to our economy.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1825975203337228716
NQUs are +30.75; ESUs are +4.50; and USUs are -13/32 at 20:10 ET. Tim Walz and Bill Clinton are the featured speakers at the DNC on Wednesday night, which should produce the TV ratings low.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5479; 100-day MA: 5336; 150-day MA: 5240; 200-day MA: 5085 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,738; 100-day MA: 39,252; 150-day MA: 39,079; 200-day MA: 38,377 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5620.85 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5628.97 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5377.90 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD are negative – a close below 5584.92 triggers a sell signal
Michelle Obama, Princeton and Harvard Law grad, ex-First Lady, BFF with the rich & famous, and owner of 3 mansions, including one on Martha’s Vineyard, displayed astounding hypocrisy and recklessly played the race and victim cards. Barack wasn’t much better. Obama cultists and the MSM swooned.
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: VP Kamala Harris held an event 90 miles away from the DNC on the night the party’s two most popular figures, Barack and Michelle Obama, campaigned on her behalf – and a source familiar with DNC planning tells FOX says that choice was made out of sensitivity and respect to Joe Biden. “Obamas are still not on the White House good side,” a source familiar with the situation said. “It would not be helpful to their relationships.” Fox is told this plan came together to avoid the optics of Harris… appearing alongside one of the figures he views as responsible for driving the end of his reelection bid… “We are in tricky territory,” this source said.
@albamonica: Michelle Obama: “For years, Donald Trump did everything in his power to try to make people fear us. His limited and narrow view of the world made him feel threatened by the existence of two hardworking, highly educated, successful people who also happened to be Black.” https://twitter.com/albamonica/status/1826089897725206993?s=02
@NEWSMAX: Michelle Obama: “If things don’t go our way, we don’t have the luxury of whining or cheating others to get further ahead. No. We don’t get to change the rules so we always win.”https://t.co/eHtt3DXNCm (After Barack & Nancy did a coup on Joe!)
@theMRC: Michelle Obama says her parents were “suspicious of folks who took more than they needed.” She has 3 houses and a $160 million dollar net worth. https://x.com/theMRC/status/1826098269417582761
@JordanSchachtel: The Obama homes in in Martha’s Vineyard, D.C. and Hawaii. They bought the three homes for a combined total of $28.5 million. None of this includes the substantial renovation costs (they knocked down and rebuilt the Hawaii home)
@joelpollak: Michelle Obama talks about losing hope, feeling “a palpable sense of dread about the future.” Who’s been in charge of the country for the last four years?
@toddstarnes: And there you have it, ladies and gentlemen, the REAL Michelle Obama. A perpetually offended, professional race baiting racist. Daring to accuse President Trump of hating black people.
@PhilipWegmann: Michelle Obama, who reportedly was frustrated with how the Biden’s exiled Kathleen Buhle after her messy divorce from Hunter, made no mention of Joe.
Barack Obama profusely lavished praise on Biden and called him his brother – the guy that he ousted.
@cspan: @BarackObama: “History will remember Joe Biden as an outstanding president who defended democracy at a moment of great danger. I am proud to call him my president. But I am even prouder to call him my friend.”
@FoxNews: Obama praises Biden in DNC address, takes swing at Trump for creating ‘cult of personality’ (Obama epitomizes the cult of personality!) https://t.co/5p662KFY1R
@josh_hammer: Never forget that Barack Obama, who is now lying through his teeth at this DNC speech, didn’t have the balls to publicly call for his “friend” Joe Biden to drop out. He instead just shivved him in the back through intermediaries.
@DrewHLive: Obama started his speech with divisive slander towards President Trump. Now he’s talking about lowering the temperature of the political climate…
@julie_kelly2: Barack Obama initiated the decade-long lawfare against Donald Trump…
@joelpollak: After ripping into Trump, @BarackObama laments the polarization of politics. That’s the Obama we know.
@TrumpWarRoom: Barack Hussein Obama: “The other side knows it’s easier to play on people’s fears and cynicism. They will tell you that government is inherently corrupt.” He’s one to talk!https://t.co/VPp5bvvfiS
@ForAmerica: Obama talking about Trump and his “rich friends” is something else. https://t.co/nrOclDihQV
Obama Makes Penis Size Joke While Trashing Trump as ‘Childish’ “There’s the childish nicknames,” Barry said of Trump. “The crazy conspiracy theories.” Then he added, “This weird obsession with crowd sizes.” At this point, Barry lifted both hands to indicate a large size, looked down, and then brought his hands closer together to indicate a smaller size… https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/21/nolte-obama-makes-penis-size-joke-while-trashing-trump-as-childish/ (Major mistake by Barry; it generated sordid remarks and GIFs about his proclivities on social media.)
@TheBabylonBee: Obamas Promise to Spread Their Wealth Around New $15 Million Estate https://t.co/zxMDtASz7S
@MonicaCrowley: Everyone at the DNC pretending that Obama and his crew haven’t been running the country for the last three and a half years.
@DogRightGirl: “She (Harris) is the White House right now…Democrats have controlled the White House for 12 of the last 16 years… and somehow, it’s still all Trump’s fault. Somehow, she (Kamala) hasn’t’ been at the center… This is the glaring hole in the campaign…” https://x.com/DogRightGirl/status/1826228364962664803
@brendenmoore13: Sen. Bernie Sanders: “Billionaires in both parties should not be able to buy elections.” The next speaker is Illinois Gov. @JBPritzker, a billionaire who has spent more than $350 million of his personal fortune on his two gubernatorial campaigns.
Schumer blasts Trump for ‘peddling antisemitic stereotypes’ in speech at Democratic conventionhttps://t.co/sL6CUytY5D
Anti-Israel protesters clash with police outside Chicago’s Israeli consulate during DNChttps://t.co/z5RP4DCL8d
@kylenabecker: Chicago Police start making mass arrests of far-left protesters attempting to “shut down the DNC.”https://t.co/LHwLFW1FmN
@TrumpWarRoom: Bernie: “Too many of our fellow Americans are struggling every day to just get by, to put food on the table, to pay the rents, and to get the healthcare they need.” Gee, who has been in power for the last 3.5 years and is responsible for this! https://t.co/00kOecApmq
@NickFondacaro: Just as the DNC introduced CNN commentator Ana Navarro to speak to the delegates, CNN abruptly cuts away. “All right, uhhh it’s an exciting time here for the delegates uhhh in the United Center,” host Jake Tapper stammers. https://t.co/t7vcSMJ6zs
Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers raises eyebrows by mumbling through Kamala Harris nomination speech at the DNC – On a national stage and in front of thousands of members of his party, Evers raised eyebrows with brief remarks so messy that social media users speculated he was drunk, high or experiencing a medical emergency… https://t.co/H0Sa1D8P36
@sav_says_: Kamala’s rally in Milwaukee has been crashed by pro-Palestinian protestors screaming “Free Palestine” They could be heard throughout the arena until they were removed. https://t.co/budoHu3gz2
Ex-GOP Rep. @LeeMZeldin: Harris becomes the first candidate to become a major party presidential nominee without receiving even a single vote, without putting even a single policy on a website, without standing for even a single press conference, or without sitting for even a single interview.
@TheBabylonBee: Sad: Black People Turned Away in Droves as Democrats Require Photo ID to Enter Conventionhttps://t.co/4HEAbS1SD3
@JerryDunleavy: Walz spox tries to cover for Walz’s habitual lies by implying “real people” all lie as he does & that “telling it like it is” apparently means lying about your retired military rank, about carrying weapons in war, & even about how your kids were conceived, all for political gain. https://t.co/h3KshmDtsj
@MattWolking: Earlier this year, Governor Tim Walz “told reporters he had been texting late into the night about an infrastructure spending deal.” It was a complete fabrication. His “spokesperson said the governor misspoke and that such texts didn’t exist.”
@JerryDunleavy: Tim Walz is thus far refusing to say whether the Harris-Walz campaign will release information on whether the Chinese Communist Party funded any of the many American student trips to China that were led by Walz. https://t.co/3FKR0YBkIj
A reporter asked Trump why he is in Howell, Michigan, a town associated with white supremacy. Trump asked her who came here in 2021, she reluctantly admitted, “Joe Biden.”
@julie_kelly2: Still reading through @HouseGOP report on Biden family crimes–one reason why Jack Smith and DOJ are delaying their analysis of SCOTUS immunity is because whatever they conclude can and will be held against Joe Biden if Donald Trump wins. Does obstructing a Congressional investigation into classified documents represent an “official act” or personal/private acts? Does directing your top aides to rummage through papers without any law enforcement oversight represent a crime? What else did Biden and his lawyers do behind the scenes to cover his tracks on holding national defense info? This is the tip of the iceberg in terms of Biden’s criminal liability if a Trump appointee takes over the DOJ… https://x.com/julie_kelly2/status/1826255709408776411
@JackPosobiec: Republicans already stopped talking about the Trump assassination attempt that happened a month ago. Democrats still bring up Charlottesville even though it was nearly a decade ago.
@TrumpDailyPosts: I watched Joe Biden Monday night and was amazed at his ANGER at being humiliated by the Democrats. I was happy to have played a part in his demise in that it all began on the evening of June 27, 2024, THE DEBATE, which I think was heavily pushed and promoted by Comrade Kamala Harris. She knew what was going to happen, and so did everyone else. It led to a first ever COUP of the President of the United States, who is now unhappily sunbathing on a Beach in California, watching the waves, and thinking how much he hates Barack Hussein Obama, Crazy Nancy Pelosi, and Lightweight Movie “Star” George Clooney, who failed to come to Crooked Joe’s defense. The good news is that I believe Joe Biden, the Worst President in the History of the United States, who served with the Worst Vice President in the History of the United States, is now seething. I don’t know why he gave up, I don’t know why he quit. He got 14 Million Votes, she got NONE. He’s an angry man now, and he should be! Donald Trump Truth Social 11:14 PM EST 08/21/24
RFK Jr.’s announced that he will host a press conference on Friday at 2 PM ET in Arizona. Rumors have RFK Jr. dropping out of the race, endorsing DJT, and reportedly procuring a cabinet post from DJT.
Can you imagine the panic and horror in the Deep State if DJT makes RFK Jr. the CIA Director?
NBC: RFK Jr. is planning to drop out of the 2024 presidential race and endorse Trump
Newsweek: A recent poll from The New York Times and Siena College, which questioned voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, found that more of Kennedy’s voters would back Trump, compared with Harris. In that survey, 41 percent of Kennedy’s voters said they would back Trump, while 27 percent said they would vote for Harris when pressed about who they would vote for in a two-way race. An additional 33 percent said they weren’t sure who they’d support… https://www.newsweek.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-election-choice-gift-donald-trump-1942085
harveyorganblog.com 
