GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $29.70 TO $2510.80

SILVER PRICE UP $.72 TO $29.77

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2510.20

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $29.82

Bitcoin morning price:$60,844 UP 528 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $63,254 UP 2938 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing  UP $12.60 TO $962,29

Palladium price; UP $22.10 TO $961.90

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3392.25 UP 12,20 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,431.95 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//AUG 16 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1,900.46 UP 1,14 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1937.75 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) AUGUST 16/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,243,43 UP 5.74 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.273.50 EUROS PER OZ//AUGUST 16 //.2024)

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END

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: AUGUST 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,478.900000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 08/22/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 08/26/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 73
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 120
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 39
661 C JP MORGAN 4 2
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 5
690 C ABN AMRO 13
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 2
905 C ADM 4 9
991 H CME 2

---

TOTAL: 140 140
MONTH TO DATE: 22,033

JPMorgan stopped 2/140

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR AUGUST/2024. CONTRACT: 140 NOTICES FOR 14,000 OZ  or  0.4354 TONNES

total notices so far: 22,033 contracts for 2,203,300  Oz (68.532 tonnes)

FOR  AUGUST:

SILVER NOTICES: 47 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 235,000

OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 909 for 4,545,000 oz

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $29.70 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A MASSIVE WITHDRAWAL OF 98.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR OUT OF THE GLD/

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.72 AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV/

// INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ/

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.431 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1776 CONTRACTS TO 144,866 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH HUGE LIQUIDATION OF OI FROM OUR SPREADERS/TAS WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $0.44 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER LONGS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE LOSS OF 1316 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES AS WE HAD AGAIN HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD MINOR COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE.  WE HAD ANOTHER  STRONG 460 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER HUMONGOUS 982 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST 1316 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE HUGE LOSS IN PRICE.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 982 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.44) AND WERE SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING A FEW SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUGE LOSS OF 1316 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES BUT ALL OF THAT LOSS DUE TO SPREADER/TAS LIQUIDATION.

WE HAD A STRONG 460 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.005 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 4.560 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//AUGUST IS THUS 4.560 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 982 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED A MASSIVE 1151 CONTRACTS//

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF AUGUST

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 DAYS, total 15,100 contracts:   OR 75.5 MILLION OZ  (882 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  75.5 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 75.5 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  1776 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 460 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF  3.005 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR AUG  4.560 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 1776  OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 419 CONTRACTS,//SOME FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX TRADING WHICH ACCOUNTS FOR A PORTION OF THE STRONG COMEX OI LOSS//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS AND SMALL LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT   (982) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND MOST LIKELY TODAY., .

WE HAD 47 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 235,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 9430 OI CONTRACTS  TO 522,269 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A MASSIVE 14,538 CONTRACTS//THE LARGEST REMOVAL ON RECORD

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (9430 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR  LOSS OF $28.90  IN PRICE/THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 13,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS FINALLY GUYS ARE STANDING FOR GOLD AT THE COMEX

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  69.004 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $28.90 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF  6023 OI CONTRACTS (18.73 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3407 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 522,269

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6023 CONTRACTS  WITH 9430 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3407 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 6023 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR 1571 CONTRACTS,

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3407 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI OF 9430 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 6023 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR AUGUST AT 65.55 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 13300 OZ QUEUE JUMP AS THESE BOYS JUMP THE QUEUE TO STAND AT THE COMEX./

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /AUGUST 69.004 TONNES. 

 / 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//SPREADER CONTRACTS WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOSS 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1571 CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

AUGUST

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF AUGUST. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 79,810 CONTRACTS OF 7,981,000 OZ OR 248.24 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4694 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  248.24 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  248.24 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.98% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 248.24 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A HUGE ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (AUG), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED  1776 CONTRACTS OI  TO 144,861 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 460 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

SEPT 460  and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 460 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1776 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 460 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1316 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 6.580 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.44 LOSS IN PRICE 

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.60 PTS OR 0.70% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 28.90 PTS OR 0.16% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 153/26 OR .40%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.11%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,1370 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1402/ Oil UP TO 73.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.11 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 9430 CONTRACTS  TO 522,269 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.90 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST A CONSIDERABLE NUMBER OF SPREADER/T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS TRIED TO SEIZE THE MOMENT  THROUGHOUT THE SESSION COVER WHAT THEY COULD AT EXTREME LOWER PRICES. THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 148 TONNES+ OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024.

OUR LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE LOWER PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURDAY’S HUGE LOSS IN PRICE YET ZERO LONGS WERE CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF AUGUST.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3407 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  OCT/DEC 3407 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3407 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 6023 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3407 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 9420 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE  LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.90/THURSDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. SEEMS NOBODY WAS FOOLED BY THE RAID ON THURSDAY.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT A FAIR  SIZED 1517 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE. THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS AS WELL AS THIS WEEK AND ESPECIALLY ON LAST YESTERDAY HUGE TRADING DAY/RAID.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   AUGUST  (69.004 TONNES)

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 42 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.004 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY  $28.90 //// BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. CENTRAL BANK LONGS , EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL. WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THURSDAY/COMEX. ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER/TAS LIQUIDATION

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OI OF 12,73 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR AUGUST (65.55 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 13,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP //NEW STANDING: 69.004 TONNES.

NEW STANDING FOR AUGUST: 69.004 TONNES 

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $28.90

WE HAVE REMOVED A MAMMOTH 14,538 CONTRACTS  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. THIS IS THE LARGEST ADJUSTMENT TO DATE.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 6023 CONTRACTS OR 602300 OZ (18,73

TONNES)

confirmed volume THURSDAY 190,150 contracts poor

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

AUGUST 23      AUGUST  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE AUG 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	2893.59 oz or 90 kilobars           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	NIL oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	140 notice(s) 14,000 OZ 0.4354 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	152 contracts    15,200 OZ 0.4727 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	22,033 notices 2,203,300 oz 68.532 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits NIL oz

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks 2893.59 oz (90 kilobars)

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 2893.59 oz

adjustments: 1/ DEALER TO CUSTOMER

a) Loomis 675.071 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST

For the front month of AUGUST we have an oi of 292 contracts having LOST 44 contracts.

We had 177 contracts served on THURSDAY so we gained an additional 133 contracts or 13300 oz will stand for gold at the comex

SEPT. LOST 76 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5,483 CONTRACTS.

OCTOBER GAINED 258 CONTRACTS UP TO 54,828 CONTRACTS

We had 140 contracts filed for today representing 14,000  oz  

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 48 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 77 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for AUGUST /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (22,033) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  August 292( CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (140x 100 oz per contract( equals  2,218,500 OZ  OR 69.004 TONNES. Somebody was in great need of physical gold on this side of the pond today

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the AUGUST contract month:  No of notices filed so far (22,033 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of AUGUST  (292 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (140) x 100 oz which equals  2,218,500 oz (69.004 TONNES) 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR AUGUST: 69.004 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,747,723,704 oz 54.36 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,256,420.359 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,788,163.714 ( 242.24 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,468,256.645 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,041,112 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 187.90tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

AUGUST 23/2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE AUG 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	769,000.876 OZ CNT Brinks Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,763,080.700 oz CNT Delaware JPMorgan
No of oz served today (contracts)	47 CONTRACT(S)    (235,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	3 contracts  (0.0150 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	909 Contracts  (4.545 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  3 customer deposits:

i)Into CNT: 600,175.088 oz

ii) Into Delaware 600,609.900 oz

iii) Into JPM 564,295.712 oz

total customer deposit 1763,080.700 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 135,336million oz/307.328 million  or 44.02%

adjustment:0

withdrawals: 3

i)Out of CNT 600,175,088 oz

ii)Out of Delaware 600,609.900 OZ

III) Out of JPMorgan: 564,295.712 oz

total customer withdrawals: 1,722,080.700oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.805 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.328 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR AUGUST:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF AUGUST/2024 OI: 50 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 0 CONTRACT(S). 

WE HAD 0 NOTICES SERVED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTs OR AN ADDITIONAL 0 OZ WILL STAND FOR SILVER AT THE COMEX.

SEPT SAW A LOSS OF 6731 CONTRACTS TO 40,820. SEPT NOW BECOMES THE NEW FRONT MONTH

OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS OF 143 CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 819 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 47 for 235,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 66,226 strong

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in AUGUST we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 909 x 5,000 oz = 4.545 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of AUGUST( 50) and the number of notices served upon today 47 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the AUGUST/2024 contract month:  909 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of AUGUST (50)x number of notices served upon today minus (47)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the AUGUST  contract month equates to 4.560 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 4.560 million oz.

There are 69.805 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD

AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES

AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES

AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES

AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES

AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES

AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES

AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES

AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES

AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES

AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES

AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES

AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES

AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES

JULY 30 WITH GOLD UP $26.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A /////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES

JULY 29 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.98 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 843.17 TONNES

JULY 26 WITH GOLD UP $27.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.19 TONNES

JULY 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $60.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES

JULY 24 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD//A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TOONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 841.74 TONNES

JULY 23 WITH GOLD UP $12.75 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES

JULY 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES

JULY 19 WITH GOLD DOWN $56.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.01 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 840.01 TONNES

JULY 18 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: ///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES

JULY 17 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A MASSIVE DEPOSIT OF 5.49 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 842.02 TONNES

JULY 16 WITH GOLD UP $38.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD;: A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD///INVENTORY RESTS AT 836.53 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 857.85 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ

JULY 31//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 460.596 MILLION OZ

JULY 30//WITH SILVER UP $0.61//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 460.596 MILLION OZ

JULY 29//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.382 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV/./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 461.052 MILLION OZ

JULY 26//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY./// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 456.670 MILLION OZ

JULY 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.37//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.124 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV./// /INVENTORY FALLS TO 456.670 MILLION OZ

JULY 24 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ

JULY 23 WITH SILVER UP 3 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 15.880 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ

JULY 22 WITH SILVER UP 2 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.920 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV./// /INVENTORY RISES AT 439.780 MILLION OZ

JULY 19 WITH SILVER DOWN 94 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY/// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 435.854 MILLION OZ

JULY 18 WITH SILVER DOWN 13 CENTS//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY” A DEPOSIT OF 2.374 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/// /INVENTORY RISES TO 435.854 MILLION OZ

JULY 17. WITH SILVER DOWN 75 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.

JULY 16. WITH SILVER UP 30 CENTS//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY// /INVENTORY REMAINS AT 433.480 MILLION OZ.

CLOSING INVENTORY 465,925 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

All about Powell at Jackson Hole

Short-term, Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today will determine both gold and the dollar’s moves. But their underlying trends are clear: the dollar’s is down, and gold’s is up.

ALASDAIR MACLEODAUG 23∙PAID

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All about Powell at Jackson Hole

Gold and silver consolidated recent gains this week with gold looking overbought, but silver perhaps less so. In European trade this morning, gold was $2497, down $9 from last Friday’s close. Silver was $29.35, up 35 cents on balance.

It really has been a tale of two metals, as our next charts show.

Gold’s rise has been consistent since last October, seemingly defying the volatility in its Open Interest. Silver has seen a significant downtrend since May with Open Interest falling as you would expect. But since 8 August, silver has started picking up without Open Interest doing so. With the attention focussing on gold, silver is being ignored and looking positive.

Silver is left behind, with a gold/silver ratio of 85. But as the ratio chart shows, that could be set for a significant decline.

Silver does have some catching up to do if gold continues on its upwards trend. But in the very short-term, we have Powell’s Jackson Hole speech later today, which could drive prices either way. Let’s take a moment to think his position through.

This week, there was a shocking revision of non-farm payrolls, which turn out to have been exaggerated by 818,000 in the 12 months to last March, overstating the strength of the US economy. The implication is that with CPI inflation back towards target, the Fed has been wrong to hold off on interest rate cuts.

How does Powell climb down from this one? He will avoid statements likely to fuel a further decline in the dollar by raising hopes of declines in interest rates too much, because he will have an eye on funding the deficit. But that cat is probably already out of the bag, as the trade weighted index shows:

The death cross on the $TWI is the most bearish signal since mid-2020. While there is some short-term potential for the TWI to recover from its recent sharp decline, the bearish trend for it is clear. A September cut of 0.5% is already discounted, so Powell’s speech will be dissected for evidence that there could be further cuts to follow.

If so, that would be bearish for the dollar and equities because of the economic hard landing implications. But for gold, the opposite is true, with its chart standing in stark contrast with that of the $TWI.

After breaking out above a bullish flag formation (more obvious intraday) in the short-term gold is back testing the breakout level while the TWI looks ready for a small bounce.

There you have it: don’t rule out more short-term consolidation/volatility of both trends for the $TWI and gold. But the primary direction for both is clear. And it won’t be long before the hedge funds continue to sell the dollar and buy gold as they resume their pair trades.

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

4. GOLD PODCASTS//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no XXX with/Andrew Maguire/kinesis no 187

end

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/

end

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.60 PTS OR 0.70% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 28.90 PTS OR 0.16% // Nikkei CLOSED UP 153/26 OR .40%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.11%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,1370 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1402/ Oil UP TO 73.90 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.11 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 7.1330

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1402

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.60 PTS OR 0.20 %

HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 28.90 PTS OR 0.16%

2. Nikkei closed UP 153.26 PTS OR .40%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  101.36 EURO FALLS TO 1.1112 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.907 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.06…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE REIGNITING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE:UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2435/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.602 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.047%

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.273

3j Gold at $2500.65//Silver at: 29.47  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 16/ 100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.65

3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and  78 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.06/  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.907 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8523 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9471 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.845 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.118 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.998 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.01…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.9875 UP 1 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.090 UP 0 BASIS PTS

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Jump Ahead Of Powell’s J-Hole Speech As Dovish Expectations Fly

FRIDAY, AUG 23, 2024 – 08:20 AM

Futures are solidly in the green on the last day of the week ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with Tech leading. As of 7:45am S&P futures were up 0.5% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.8% with top MegaCap tech stocks TSLA (+1.5%), NVDA (+1.2%), and AMZN (+69bp). Bond yields are roughly unchanged: the 10Y yield is down 1bp to 3.84% as the USD resumes its slide ahead of what many expect to be another dovish speech by Powell cementing a 25bps Sept rate cut. Commodities are mixed with Oil and Precious Metals higher, while Base Metals are lower. Today, the main focus will be Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole at 10am ET.

In premarket trading, Uber dropped 1% after the company unveiled plans to start offering self-driving Cruise cars to customers on its ride-hailing platform next year. Workday meanwhile surged 13% after the software company said it would increase profitability over the next three years to enable strategic investments. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Uber slips 1% after the company unveiled plans to start offering self-driving Cruise cars to customers on its ride-hailing platform next year.
• Workday (WDAY) rises 13% after the software company said it would increase profitability over the next three years to enable strategic investments.
• Cava Group climbs 9% after the fast-casual chain boosted its annual outlook for comparable sales following 2Q results that topped Wall Street expectations.
• Las Vegas Sands falls 1% after UBS cut the recommendation on the casino operator to neutral, noting the slow recovery in the company’s Macau business.
• Red Robin drops 14% after it cut adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year.
• Roku rises 4% after an upgrade to buy at Guggenheim, which said the company is pivoting toward broadening advertising sales.
• Ross Stores climbs 5% after the off-price retailer boosted its earnings per share forecast for the full year.
• Topgolf Callaway Brands falls 3% after Raymond James downgraded the golf company to underperform, citing the recent deterioration in sales at its namesake chain of high-tech driving ranges.

On to today’s main event, the annual Jackson Hole symposium: Powell’s address, slated for 10 a.m. New York time, has been the main focus for traders all week and markets took a hit on Thursday on concern he would push back on the market’s aggressive easing bets. At the same time, strategists from JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank say they expect moderate bond moves during the conference, while options traders are betting on small swings for stocks in the days ahead.

“For investors, the big question is to what extent Powell validates expectations for a September rate cut, and whether he offers any indication of how big any rate cut might be,” said DB’s Jim Reid, who went on to add that last year Powell said that they intended “to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective”. But over the following 12 months, we’ve seen inflation experience a noticeable decline, along with an increase in unemployment. So from both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, we’ve moved much closer to a point where the Fed have cut rates in previous cycles.

That said, the annual gathering of policymakers and academics in Wyoming may ultimately prove uneventful. Over the past decade, yields on both two- and 10-year notes moved less than 4 basis points on average, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The S&P 500 Index has been more reactionary, fluctuating around 1.3% on average. Of course, a jolt isn’t out of the question, however. Two years ago, Powell surprised the market by delivering a hawkish speech that sent the S&P 500 tumbling 3.4%, while 10-year yields notched an 8-basis-point intraday swing.

Surprises aside, the market is expecting the Fed to cut next month and preannounce it today with bets on lower Fed rates helping drive a rebound from the slump at the start of August. Investors are pricing in a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 gathering, but see almost a full percentage point of reductions by year end, according to futures markets.

“It can be a very high bar for Powell to out-dove markets” said Christopher Wong, FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. “But at the same time, I doubt many are expecting him to do that — so as long as there is no hawkish surprise from his speech, markets are happy to continue trading the Goldilocks thematic, i.e. fading rallies in the dollar.”

European stocks inch higher, led by auto and bank names, while technology underperforms.

Europe’s main equities benchmark edged up 0.3%. Major markets are higher led by Italy. Thematically, Italian Banks, Macro Recovery and EU Most Shorts are the top performing baskets; Semis lagged. On macro data, France Mfg. confidence prints 99 vs. 96 survey vs. 5 prior. Here are the biggest European movers:

• ALK-Abello shares climb as much as 12% to a record after the Danish allergy-drug maker raised its 2024 guidance for the third time this year, in a second-quarter report that beat estimates on the back of a strong performance in its key European market.
• Royal Unibrew shares rise as much as 5.1%, the most in four months, after the beer brewer raised the bottom end of its full-year guidance range for both net revenue and Ebit growth. Jefferies says this has lifted confidence but notes that consensus is already in line with the new targets.
• Galapagos shares rise as much as 5.2% after the biotech firm said it got US regulatory clearance for an early/mid-stage study evaluating its experimental drug candidate GLPG5101 in patients with relapsed or refractory non-Hodgkin lymphoma.
• Nestle shares fall as much as 4.1% in Zurich, the most in almost a month, after the consumer-goods company said Laurent Freixe will replace Mark Schneider as CEO. Analysts questioned whether the unexpected management change will lead to Nestle walking away from its current financial guidance.
• Dino Polska shares dive as much as 14% to lowest since Oct. 2022 after an earnings miss and softer sales guidance for 2H. Analysts note that Ebitda margin erosion in 2Q is deeper than reported earlier by peer J.Martins. Dino results confirm a difficult situation for food retailers in Poland amid slowing inflation, fast rising wages and fierce competition.
• Melrose Industries slides as much as 5.8% after UBS double-downgraded the stock to sell from buy, saying the market is overstating the size of the UK engineer’s Revenue & Risk Sharing Partnership (RRSP) portfolio.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.2%. The Japanese yen pares an earlier gain to sit 0.2% higher having rallied after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept rate hikes in play this year. When asked about the market ructions that occurred earlier this month, Ueda played down the significance of the BOJ’s July rate hike in the turmoil. At the same time, he signaled that he doesn’t plan to rush ahead with the next rate hike, saying the BOJ needs to carefully watch the impact of unstable financial markets on the inflation outlook. The pound climbs 0.3% with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey also scheduled to speak today.

In rates, treasuries are marginally richer across the curve, keeping yields within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels, in light trading ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, scheduled for 10am New York time. US 10-year yield near 3.84% is about 1bp lower on the day, keeping pace with UK 10-year while outperforming Germany’s; curve spreads also remain within 1bp of Thursday’s closing levels. Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, historical analysis has shown that the event has not been a big market mover with a 10-year yield move of less than 4 basis points on average

In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1.1% to $73.80 a barrel. Spot gold rises $16 to $2,500/oz.

Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and climbs past USD 61K, whilst Ethereum sees gains to a larger magnitude and holds above USD 2.6k.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes July new home sales (10am) and August Kansas City Fed services activity (11am). Other Fed speakers scheduled include Bostic (8am, 9am), Harker (11am) and Goolsbee (12:30pm, 1:45pm, 2:15pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 5,615.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.1% to 516.49
• MXAP up 0.2% to 185.08
• MXAPJ little changed at 574.49
• Nikkei up 0.4% to 38,364.27
• Topix up 0.5% to 2,684.72
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 17,612.10
• Shanghai Composite up 0.2% to 2,854.37
• Sensex little changed at 81,106.22
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,023.90
• Kospi down 0.2% to 2,701.69
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.25%
• Euro little changed at $1.1120
• Brent Futures up 0.6% to $77.67/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,496.74
• US Dollar Index down 0.11% to 101.40

Top Overnight News

• The Bank of Japan is still on a path toward higher interest rates provided inflation and economic data continue in line with its forecasts, Governor Kazuo Ueda said in his first public remarks following a global market rout.
• US equity futures ticked higher in the run-up to Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders speculating over whether the Federal Reserve Chair will open the door for interest-rate cuts.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming kicked off Thursday evening with a dinner filled with central bankers, economists and reporters from the around the world. Here’s what to expect from the three-day conference.
• China’s attempts to cool a record bond rally have stalled a drop in yields, but at the cost of a collapse in trading activity to an extent that may create more headaches for policymakers

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsuawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed amid cautiousness as braced for a slew of global central bank rhetoric including Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. ASX 200 was restricted amid notable weakness across the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses after Japanese CPI printed mostly in line with expectations, while there was also a slew of commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda who stood by last month’s BoJ rate hike. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. initially diverged with the former pressured by underperformance in NetEase and Baidu due to earnings disappointment, while the mainland was indecisive amid very few fresh catalysts.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Governor Ueda said concerns about a slowing US economy caused the recent market rout and they closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency as uncertainties remain, while there is no change to the stance that they would adjust the degree of monetary easing if the price outlook is likely to be achieved. Ueda said the July rate hike decision was based on their inflation forecast and the risk of inflation overshoot, as well as stated that the BoJ’s policy path to a neutral interest rate remains highly uncertain but noted that Japan’s short-term interest rate is still very low so if the economy performs well, the BoJ will adjust rates to levels deemed neutral to the economy. Ueda said they may conduct operations nimbly if there’s a sharp rise in long-term yields. Says they removed the wording “continue accomodative environment” from the outlook report, as it was said to be interpreted as not increasing rates for the foreseeable future
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said there is a potential risk of Japan’s financial health deterioration from a rate hike as government debt is high and they cannot rule out the possibility of Japan’s economy falling back into deflation. Furthermore, Suzuki said a weak yen has merits and demerits, while he cannot tell if a strong yen has bigger merits or demerits. Suzuki added the FX intervention in July was effective and intervention was conducted to respond to speculative moves and excessive volatility.
• Tenders showed that state-linked Chinese entities use Amazon’s (AMZN) Cloud unit to access restricted AI chips and models including Nvidia (NVDA) chips banned from export to China, according to Reuters.
• China’s Politburo is holding a meeting, via Xinhua, on developing western China. Must promote the upgrading of traditional industries. Strengthen security guarantees capabilities within key areas. Strengthen energy resource guarantees and the construction of clean energy guarantees. Must persist in building a strong sense of community for the nation, safeguarding unity and border stability.
• “China’s Ministry of Commerce met with automakers and industry associations…The meeting adds to a succession of events that clearly shows China is seriously studying calls of tariff rate hikes on imported large-engine cars, industry insiders said”, GT.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) are generally firmer, having opened on a mostly flat footing. The complex picked up as the morning progressed; ahead Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Banks top the pile, joined by Energy, whilst Tech lags slightly. US Equity Futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.2%) are entirely in the green, paring back some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session.

Top European News

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (July): See inflation in next 12 months at 2.8% (prev. 2.8%); 3yrs ahead sees 2.4% (prev. 2.3%)
• ECB’s Kazaks said EZ inflation is consistent with further gradual ECB rate cuts; assume two more rate cuts this year and there is no reason now not to follow through, according to Reuters.
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -13.0 vs. Exp. -12.0 (Prev. -13.0)
• UK’s Ofgem says the energy price cap for October to December 2024 will rise 10% (exp. 9%) to GBP 1717 (prev. 1568) for a typical household

FX

• USD is softer vs. peers by varying degrees. DXY is holding below the 101.50 mark in the run-up to Fed Chair Powell’s appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD and steady on a 1.11 handle after briefly slipping to a 1.1098 low on Thursday. ECB speak today and the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey have had little follow-through for the EUR.
• Cable is currently holding around Thursday’s 1.3130 peak, which if breached would bring in the 2023 peak at 1.3142 into view.
• JPY is edging mild gains vs. the USD but ultimately remaining within Thursday’s 144.84-146.52 parameters. Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda overnight brought on some appreciation of the JPY with the Governor very much leaving the door open for further rate hikes.
• Antipodeans are both a touch firmer vs. the USD. AUD/USD appears to be in consolidation mode for now after a recent run of gain.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1358 vs exp. 7.1480 (prev. 7.1228).

Fixed Income

• USTs are in a holding pattern into Powell, unchanged within a narrow range around the 113-10 mark and at the low-end of Thursday’s 113-05+ to 113-27 band. Ahead of Powell, benchmarks have generally come under some very modest pressure as crude picks up to incremental session highs.
• Bunds are very much contained and holding within Thursday’s 134.11-135.08 range ahead of Fed Chair Powell. ECB SCE and commentary from Kazaks provided little impetus.
• Gilts are flat and around 99.50, waiting Powell and thereafter a text release from Bailey at 16:00BST (speech scheduled for 20:00BST).
• OATs await updates from how the meeting between French President Macron and the left-wing NFP alliance PM candidate goes.

Commodities

• Crude is firmer intraday despite a lack of pertinent catalysts this morning but in a continuation of the strength seen on Thurday. Brent October sits in a USD 77.03-77.64/bbl parameter.
• Firmer trade across precious metals following Thursday’s session of losses, and with today’s gains also facilitated by a softer Dollar and a weekend of potential geopolitical risks. Spot gold remains under USD 2,500/oz in a USD 2,484.41-2,497.61/oz parameter.
• A sea of green across base metals amid the broader optimism across markets coupled with a generally softer Dollar and a session of losses on Thursday.
• China’s Industry Ministry revised steel production capacity replacement measures and stated that from today, all regions will suspend announcements of new steel production capacity replacement plans.

Geopolitics – Middle East

• EU foreign policy chief Borrell said he discussed with the Iranian Foreign Minister the cessation of military cooperation with Russia and defusing regional tensions, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics – Other

• Ukrainian drone attempted to attack Kursk nuclear plant; the drone was shot down near the plant, via Tass citing sources
• Ukraine’s Air Force said it used a US-made GBU-39 bomb to strike a Russian military target in Russia’s Kursk region.
• NATO air base in the German town of Geilenkirchen has raised its security level based on intelligence information indicating a potential threat, according to Reuters.
• China’s Foreign Ministry said in China-Belarus joint communique that both sides support the peaceful settlement of conflicts, constructive bilateral dialogue among countries, and international cooperation based on mutual benefit and mutual respect.

US event calendar

• 10:00: July New Home Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -0.6%
• 10:00: July New Home Sales, est. 623,000, prior 617,000
• 11:00: Aug. Kansas City Fed Services Activ, prior -4

Fed Speakers

• 08:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on CNBC
• 09:00: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Bloomberg Television
• 10:00: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 11:00: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Bloomberg Television
• 12:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
• 13:45: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Fox Business
• 14:15: Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets saw a sizeable pullback over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.89%) posting its worst daily performance in over two weeks, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield (+5.1bps) moved back up to 3.85%. The moves came as investors grew more sceptical about the chances of 50bp rate cuts this year, thanks to more positive data and comments from Fed officials yesterday, which in turn led to a pullback across equities and bonds. But today the focus will now turn to Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, which is in focus given that previous years have often seen noteworthy speeches from the Fed Chair.

In terms of what to expect today, the theme of this year’s Jackson Hole event is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy”, and Powell’s speech simply has the title “Economic Outlook”. For investors, the big question is to what extent Powell validates expectations for a September rate cut, and whether he offers any indication of how big any rate cut might be. Last year, Powell said that they intended “to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective”. But over the following 12 months, we’ve seen inflation experience a noticeable decline, along with an increase in unemployment. So from both sides of the Fed’s dual mandate, we’ve moved much closer to a point where the Fed have cut rates in previous cycles.

Our US economists’ view is that it will be difficult for Powell to pre-commit to a particular trajectory at Jackson Hole. But they do think his comments will imply that the Fed can begin dialling back the degree of restraint soon, opening the door to a rate cut next month. Indeed, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting said that the “vast majority observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” For more details, see their Jackson Hole preview here, where they also look at the case for the Fed starting with a 25bp cut (as per their baseline), and the case for starting with a larger 50bp move.

With the symposium getting underway, yesterday also brought a raft of Federal Reserve speakers, who didn’t lean into the rapid pace of cuts that was being priced by markets. For instance, Boston Fed President Collins said that she didn’t see any “big red flags”, and Philadelphia Fed President Harker said that “I think a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go”. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that he wanted to see more data, saying that “Before we act — at least before I act, or recommend acting — I think we need to see a little bit more.”

That pushback against a 50bp cut got further support yesterday from better-than-expected economic data. In particular, the weekly initial jobless claims were at 232k as expected, which took the 4-week moving average down to 236k. And on top of that, the US flash composite PMI came in above expectations at 54.1 (vs. 53.2 expected), with existing home sales also up to an annualised pace of 3.95m in July (vs. 3.94m expected), marking their first increase in five months.

With all that data in hand, investors moved to dial back their expectations for rate cuts. By the close, they’d cut the chance of a 50bp rate cut in September to 25%, down from 36% the day before. And looking at the year as a whole, the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting came down from 103bps to 97bps. And in turn, there was a meaningful move higher in Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+7.3bps) moving up to 4.00%, whilst the 10yr yield (+5.1bps) was up to 3.85%. The rise in US rates helped the dollar index (+0.46%) post its best day in three months, ending a run of four consecutive declines. But overnight we have seen a modest retracement, with the 10yr Treasury (-0.8bps) coming down slightly to 3.84%.

As officials sounded more hawkish than expected, that had an effect on equities too, where the S&P 500 (-0.89%) saw its biggest daily pullback in over two weeks. Tech stocks drove the declines, with the NASDAQ down -1.67%, whilst the Magnificent 7 fell -2.43% on the day, led by losses for Nvidia (-3.70%) and Tesla (-5.65%). The decline was more modest outside of tech as the equal-weighted S&P 500 retreated -0.30%, with financials (+0.48%) and energy (+0.32%) sectors higher on the day. Still, in a sign of a more volatile backdrop, the VIX index (+1.28pts to 17.55) rose for a third consecutive day.

It was a stronger session for equities in Europe, where the STOXX 600 advanced +0.35% on the day to close at a 3-week high. That came as the Euro Area PMIs were notably stronger than expected, with the composite PMI up to 51.2 (vs. 50.1 expected). That was supported by a strong outperformance from France amidst the Olympics, with the French services PMI up to a two-year high of 55.0 in August (vs. 50.3 expected).

Otherwise in Europe, sovereign bonds followed a similar pattern to the US, with yields on 10yr bunds (+5.4bps), OATs (+5.4bps) and BTPs (+5.9bps) all moving higher. That came as investors dialled back their expectations for ECB rate cuts this year, with the amount of cuts priced by the December meeting down -3.7bps on the day to 65bps. Separately, we also had the account of the ECB’s recent meeting in July, which said that the September meeting was widely seen as a good time to re-evaluate the level of monetary policy restriction.”

Overnight in Asia, Bank of Japan Governor Ueda confirmed that it remained their plan to continue hiking rates, saying that “If we are able to confirm a rising certainty that the economy and prices will stay in line with forecasts, there’s no change to our stance that we’ll continue to adjust the degree of easing,” That’s helped the Japanese Yen to strengthen this morning, and it’s currently trading at 145.83 per US Dollar. In the meantime, we’ve also had Japan’s latest CPI inflation data for July overnight, which showed headline CPI coming in a bit stronger than expected at +2.8% (vs. +2.7% expected). That said, the CPI measure excluding fresh food was in line with expectations at +2.7%, whilst CPI excluding fresh food and energy was also in line with consensus with a +1.9% print. All this has helped Japanese government bond yields to move higher overnight, with the 10yr yield up +3.3bps.

Meanwhile for equities in Asia, we’ve seen a more positive performance overnight. For instance, the Nikkei (+0.37%), the CSI 300 (+0.57%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.28%) have all posted gains, whilst the KOSPI is unchanged. US futures are also pointing to a recovery, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.34%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.55%) both seeing solid gains. The main exception to this pattern has been the Hang Seng, which is currently down -0.41%.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. We’ll also hear from Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and BoE Governor Bailey. Data releases include US new home sales for July, and we’ll also get the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey for July.

2B) European report

Equities gain whilst DXY & Bonds hold flat ahead of Fed Chair Powell – Newsquawk US Market Open

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 05:42 AM

• European bourses are modestly firmer, whilst US futures gain to a slightly higher degree
• Dollar is flat, Antipodeans leads, JPY initially propped up by BoJ Governor Ueda, but has since pared
• Bonds are in a holding pattern ahead of Fed Chair Powell
• Crude is firmer and near session highs, XAU gains but is still below 2500, base metals in the green
• Looking ahead, Canadian Retail Sales, Jackson Hole Symposium, Speeches from Fed Chair Powell, Fed’s Goolsbee & BoE’s Bailey

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) are generally firmer, having opened on a mostly flat footing. The complex picked up as the morning progressed; ahead Fed Chair Powell at 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT.
• European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Banks top the pile, joined by Energy, whilst Tech lags slightly.
• US Equity Futures (ES +0.5%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.2%) are entirely in the green, paring back some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is softer vs. peers by varying degrees. DXY is holding below the 101.50 mark in the run-up to Fed Chair Powell’s appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD and steady on a 1.11 handle after briefly slipping to a 1.1098 low on Thursday. ECB speak today and the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey have had little follow-through for the EUR.
• Cable is currently holding around Thursday’s 1.3130 peak, which if breached would bring in the 2023 peak at 1.3142 into view.
• JPY is edging mild gains vs. the USD but ultimately remaining within Thursday’s 144.84-146.52 parameters. Comments from BoJ Governor Ueda overnight brought on some appreciation of the JPY with the Governor very much leaving the door open for further rate hikes.
• Antipodeans are both a touch firmer vs. the USD. AUD/USD appears to be in consolidation mode for now after a recent run of gain.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1358 vs exp. 7.1480 (prev. 7.1228).
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are in a holding pattern into Powell, unchanged within a narrow range around the 113-10 mark and at the low-end of Thursday’s 113-05+ to 113-27 band. Ahead of Powell, benchmarks have generally come under some very modest pressure as crude picks up to incremental session highs.
• Bunds are very much contained and holding within Thursday’s 134.11-135.08 range ahead of Fed Chair Powell. ECB SCE and commentary from Kazaks provided little impetus.
• Gilts are flat and around 99.50, waiting Powell and thereafter a text release from Bailey at 16:00BST (speech scheduled for 20:00BST).
• OATs await updates from how the meeting between French President Macron and the left-wing NFP alliance PM candidate goes.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is firmer intraday despite a lack of pertinent catalysts this morning but in a continuation of the strength seen on Thurday. Brent October sits in a USD 77.03-77.64/bbl parameter.
• Firmer trade across precious metals following Thursday’s session of losses, and with today’s gains also facilitated by a softer Dollar and a weekend of potential geopolitical risks. Spot gold remains under USD 2,500/oz in a USD 2,484.41-2,497.61/oz parameter.
• A sea of green across base metals amid the broader optimism across markets coupled with a generally softer Dollar and a session of losses on Thursday.
• China’s Industry Ministry revised steel production capacity replacement measures and stated that from today, all regions will suspend announcements of new steel production capacity replacement plans.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• Swedish Unemployment Rate SA (Jul) 8.6% vs. Exp. 8.4% (Prev. 8.2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (July): See inflation in next 12 months at 2.8% (prev. 2.8%); 3yrs ahead sees 2.4% (prev. 2.3%)
• ECB’s Kazaks said EZ inflation is consistent with further gradual ECB rate cuts; assume two more rate cuts this year and there is no reason now not to follow through, according to Reuters.
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -13.0 vs. Exp. -12.0 (Prev. -13.0)
• UK’s Ofgem says the energy price cap for October to December 2024 will rise 10% (exp. 9%) to GBP 1717 (prev. 1568) for a typical household

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Apple (AAPL) To offer more options for choosing default browser in the EU. Plans to create a dedicated space on iPhones for changing default apps. Says new features to be available later this year in EU. To allow deletion of apps such as camera, App Store, photos, and messages. (Newswires)
• Amazon (AMZN) Tenders reportedly show that state-linked Chinese entities use Amazon (AMZN) Cloud unit to access restricted AI chips and models including Nvidia (NVDA) chips banned from export to China, according to Reuters. (Reuters)
• PRIMER – FED CHAIR POWELL (15:00BST/10:00EDT): At the Jackson Hole economic symposium, traders will scrutinise Fed Chair Powell’s comments on the potential rate cut size. Markets expect a 25bps reduction at the September 18th confab, with some small chance of a 50bps cut, but that is ultimately likely to be resolved after the August jobs data (due September 6th), as the Fed maintains its data-dependent approach, with a focus shifting to balancing inflation control with employment stability. Powell might signal a preference for gradual easing and emphasise preventing unexpected labour market weakness, as many other Fed officials have recently. (full details on the headline feed)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• EU foreign policy chief Borrell said he discussed with the Iranian Foreign Minister the cessation of military cooperation with Russia and defusing regional tensions, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

• Ukrainian drone attempted to attack Kursk nuclear plant; the drone was shot down near the plant, via Tass citing sources
• Ukraine’s Air Force said it used a US-made GBU-39 bomb to strike a Russian military target in Russia’s Kursk region.
• NATO air base in the German town of Geilenkirchen has raised its security level based on intelligence information indicating a potential threat, according to Reuters.
• China’s Foreign Ministry said in China-Belarus joint communique that both sides support the peaceful settlement of conflicts, constructive bilateral dialogue among countries, and international cooperation based on mutual benefit and mutual respect.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is incrementally firmer and climbs past USD 61K, whilst Ethereum sees gains to a larger magnitude and holds above USD 2.6k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed amid cautiousness as braced for a slew of global central bank rhetoric including Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• ASX 200 was restricted amid notable weakness across the commodity-related sectors.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses after Japanese CPI printed mostly in line with expectations, while there was also a slew of commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda who stood by last month’s BoJ rate hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. initially diverged with the former pressured by underperformance in NetEase and Baidu due to earnings disappointment, while the mainland was indecisive amid very few fresh catalysts.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoJ Governor Ueda said concerns about a slowing US economy caused the recent market rout and they closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency as uncertainties remain, while there is no change to the stance that they would adjust the degree of monetary easing if the price outlook is likely to be achieved. Ueda said the July rate hike decision was based on their inflation forecast and the risk of inflation overshoot, as well as stated that the BoJ’s policy path to a neutral interest rate remains highly uncertain but noted that Japan’s short-term interest rate is still very low so if the economy performs well, the BoJ will adjust rates to levels deemed neutral to the economy. Ueda said they may conduct operations nimbly if there’s a sharp rise in long-term yields. Says they removed the wording “continue accomodative environment” from the outlook report, as it was said to be interpreted as not increasing rates for the foreseeable future
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said there is a potential risk of Japan’s financial health deterioration from a rate hike as government debt is high and they cannot rule out the possibility of Japan’s economy falling back into deflation. Furthermore, Suzuki said a weak yen has merits and demerits, while he cannot tell if a strong yen has bigger merits or demerits. Suzuki added the FX intervention in July was effective and intervention was conducted to respond to speculative moves and excessive volatility.
• Tenders showed that state-linked Chinese entities use Amazon’s (AMZN) Cloud unit to access restricted AI chips and models including Nvidia (NVDA) chips banned from export to China, according to Reuters.
• China’s Politburo is holding a meeting, via Xinhua, on developing western China. Must promote the upgrading of traditional industries. Strengthen security guarantees capabilities within key areas. Strengthen energy resource guarantees and the construction of clean energy guarantees. Must persist in building a strong sense of community for the nation, safeguarding unity and border stability.
• “China’s Ministry of Commerce met with automakers and industry associations…The meeting adds to a succession of events that clearly shows China is seriously studying calls of tariff rate hikes on imported large-engine cars, industry insiders said”, GT.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese National CPI YY (Jul) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.2%)
• New Zealand Retail Sales Volumes QQ (Q2) -1.2% (Prev. 0.5%)
• New Zealand Retail Sales YY (Q2) -3.6% (Prev. -2.4%)

2C) ASIAN REPORT

Ultimately mixed trade pre-Powell, USD/JPY below 146.00 as Ueda spoke – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 01:42 AM

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed amid cautiousness as braced for a slew of global central bank rhetoric including Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said the timing seems appropriate to begin easing monetary policy and policy is well-positioned, while she wants a gradual approach to interest rate cuts.
• USD/JPY retreated beneath the 146.00 level and saw further downside alongside comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at a parliamentary grilling.
• Israel’s Channel 13 reported that the Israeli army is preparing for a response from Hezbollah next week if the talks on Gaza collapse.
• European equity futures indicate a flat open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after the cash market finished flat on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include ECB SCE, Canadian Retail Sales, Jackson Hole Symposium, Speeches from Fed Chair Powell, Fed’s Goolsbee & BoE’s Bailey.

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were lower and Treasury yields were firmer as participants awaited Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, while US data releases were mixed but continued to alleviate fears surrounding the labour market and economic growth concerns as initial jobless claims, for the week that coincides with the payrolls report, ticked marginally higher above expected but nowhere near enough to stoke fears around the labour market. Furthermore, US S&P Global Flash PMIs were varied as Manufacturing disappointed but Services and Composite topped forecasts, while there was a slew of Fed commentary from Schmid, Collins & Harker in which the latter two both gave a nod to a September rate cut but Schmid said he still needs to see more data before supporting a reduction.
• SPX -0.89% at 5,571, NDX -1.68% at 19,492 DJIA -0.43% at 40,713, RUT -0.95% at 2,150.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said timing seems appropriate to begin easing monetary policy and policy is well-positioned, while she wants a gradual, methodical approach to interest rate cuts and noted there is a clear path to achieving Fed’s goals without an unneeded downturn.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed amid cautiousness as braced for a slew of global central bank rhetoric including Fed Chair Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.
• ASX 200 was restricted amid notable weakness across the commodity-related sectors.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses after Japanese CPI printed mostly in line with expectations, while there was also a slew of commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda who stood by last month’s BoJ rate hike.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. initially diverged with the former pressured by underperformance in NetEase and Baidu due to earnings disappointment, while the mainland was indecisive amid very few fresh catalysts.
• US equity futures found some slight reprieve following yesterday’s selling pressure but with price action limited ahead of the looming key event.
• European equity futures indicate a flat open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures unchanged after the cash market finished flat on Thursday.

FX

• DXY traded rangebound after recently snapping a 4-day losing streak with the help of the latest data releases from the US including PMIs and Jobless Claims which were mixed but ultimately quelled economic hard landing and labour market concerns, while the attention remained on Fed Chair Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole.
• EUR/USD mildly rebounded after finding support again at the 1.1100 level.
• GBP/USD just about reclaimed the 1.3100 status amid light catalysts and with BoE Governor Bailey also scheduled to speak at the Fed’s symposium in Wyoming.
• USD/JPY retreated beneath the 146.00 level and saw further downside alongside comments from BoJ Governor Ueda at a parliamentary grilling where he said there was no change to their stance that they would adjust the degree of monetary easing if the price outlook is likely to be achieved. Furthermore, Japanese headline National CPI topped forecasts while the core metrics printed in-line.
• Antipodeans were kept afloat but with price action rangebound owing to the mixed risk appetite.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1358 vs exp. 7.1480 (prev. 7.1228).

FIXED INCOME

• 10-year UST futures retraced some of the prior day’s declines as all focus turned to Jackson Hole.
• Bund futures attempted to nurse losses after bouncing off support near the 134.00 level.
• 10-year JGB futures tracked the recent declines in global counterparts with prices not helped by recent comments from BoJ Governor Ueda and mostly in-line Japanese CPI data.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were uneventful after recouping some of the recent losses amid light energy-specific catalysts.
• Yemen’s Houthis said they targeted the Sounion oil tanker in the Red Sea.
• Spot gold mildly rebounded from this week’s worst levels but remains beneath the USD 2,500/oz level.
• Copper futures recovered from yesterday’s lows but with the upside limited amid the cautious risk tone.
• China’s Industry Ministry revised steel production capacity replacement measures and stated that from today, all regions will suspend announcements of new steel production capacity replacement plans.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin saw two-way price action and partially faded its early advances.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ Governor Ueda said concerns about a slowing US economy caused the recent market rout and they closely watching market moves with a sense of urgency as uncertainties remain, while there is no change to the stance that they would adjust the degree of monetary easing if the price outlook is likely to be achieved. Ueda said the July rate hike decision was based on their inflation forecast and the risk of inflation overshoot, as well as stated that the BoJ’s policy path to a neutral interest rate remains highly uncertain but noted that Japan’s short-term interest rate is still very low so if the economy performs well, the BoJ will adjust rates to levels deemed neutral to the economy. Ueda said they may conduct operations nimbly if there’s a sharp rise in long-term yields.
• Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki said there is a potential risk of Japan’s financial health deterioration from a rate hike as government debt is high and they cannot rule out the possibility of Japan’s economy falling back into deflation. Furthermore, Suzuki said a weak yen has merits and demerits, while he cannot tell if a strong yen has bigger merits or demerits. Suzuki added the FX intervention in July was effective and intervention was conducted to respond to speculative moves and excessive volatility.
• Tenders showed that state-linked Chinese entities use Amazon’s (AMZN) Cloud unit to access restricted AI chips and models including Nvidia (NVDA) chips banned from export to China, according to Reuters.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese National CPI YY (Jul) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%)
• Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food YY (Jul) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.6%)
• Japanese National CPI Ex. Fresh Food & Energy YY (Jul) 1.9% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.2%)
• New Zealand Retail Sales Volumes QQ (Q2) -1.2% (Prev. 0.5%)
• New Zealand Retail Sales YY (Q2) -3.6% (Prev. -2.4%)

GEOPOLITICAL

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli, Egyptian and US officials reportedly held talks in Cairo on Thursday evening to try to come to an agreement on how to secure the Egypt-Gaza border and reopen the Rafah crossing, according to Axios.
• Israel’s Channel 13 reported that the Israeli army is preparing for a response from Hezbollah next week if the talks on Gaza collapse.
• EU foreign policy chief Borrell said he discussed with the Iranian Foreign Minister the cessation of military cooperation with Russia and defusing regional tensions, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

• Ukraine’s Air Force said it used a US-made GBU-39 bomb to strike a Russian military target in Russia’s Kursk region.
• NATO air base in the German town of Geilenkirchen has raised its security level based on intelligence information indicating a potential threat, according to Reuters.
• China’s Foreign Ministry said in China-Belarus joint communique that both sides support the peaceful settlement of conflicts, constructive bilateral dialogue among countries, and international cooperation based on mutual benefit and mutual respect.

EU/UK

DATA RECAP

• ECB’s Kazaks said EZ inflation is consistent with further gradual ECB rate cuts; assume two more rate cuts this year and there is no reason now not to follow through, according to Reuters.
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug) -13.0 vs. Exp. -12.0 (Prev. -13.0)

2D JAPAN

Japan has a demographic problem because of a lack of fertility

(zerohedge)

This Is The Chart That Keeps Japanese Policymakers Up At Night

Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 08:30 PM

Japan has a demographic crisis that started in 2017 and picked up steam in 2020 and will accelerate from there into at least 2050… as a high life expectancy and a low birth rate has created an unprecedented aging population.

As a simple and effective measure of that ‘crisis’, we look at the old-age dependency ratio measures the number of people over the retirement age of 65 for every 100 working-age people.

The higher dependency ratio means fewer workers are supporting a growing number of retirees, which strains social security systems, healthcare, and pension funds. This situation could lead to economic stagnation or decline unless addressed through policy changes like increasing immigration or boosting birth rates.

In charts by creator Preyash Shad, Visual Capitalist looks at old-age dependency ratios of the top 10 economies based on data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Japan in Trouble

Japan has had a rapidly rising old-age dependency ratio for several decades and has the highest ratio currently at 54.5.

Meanwhile, Germany is the runner-up in the top 10 economies with a distant second-place dependency ratio of 41.4.

At the same time, the United States maintains a relatively low old-age dependency, with a ratio of 31.3, which places it seventh among the top 10 economies.

India, now the world’s most populous country, has the lowest ratio of 11.6, in large part because it also has the youngest population.

Projections for 2050

By 2050, Japan will maintain the highest old-age dependency ratio of the group, moving from 54.5 to a staggering 80.7.

In an effort to head-off such a high ratio, Japan is has put policies in pace to attract young immigrants and migrant workers.

However, despite government incentives, cultural shifts towards later marriages, fewer children, and more women entering the workforce have not significantly reversed the trend in Japan (or many other nations).

Italy, which is facing similar demographic pressures, will move from distant third to a close second, moving from a ratio of 40.9 to 74.4.

China, because of the results of the one-child policy and low immigration, could surpass the U.S. by 2050 with a ratio of 47.5.

3 CHINA

CHINA

China’s steel industry in trouble and thus a bleak outlook for iron ore

(zerohedge)

China Steel Mill Profits Collapse, Goldman Issues: “Bleak Outlook” For Iron Ore 

Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 09:20 PM

The global commodities market peaked in early 2022 and stumbled ever since. China’s property sector remains in a multi-year slump, resulting in soft demand for base metals like iron ore and copper. Last week, Baowu Steel Group Chairman Hu Wangming warned that the economic conditions in the world’s second-largest economy felt like a “harsh winter.”

As the world’s largest steel producer, Baowu Steel’s chairman warned that the steel industry’s downturn could be “longer, colder, and more difficult to endure than expected,” potentially mirroring the severe downturns of 2008 and 2015. This should serve as a major wake-up call for macro observers that a recovery in China isn’t imminent; in fact, Beijing might not unleash the monetary and fiscal cannons until after the US presidential elections. 

Commenting on Chinese iron ore markets is a team of Goldman analysts led by Aurelia Waltham and Daan Struyven. The analysts provided a very straightforward note to clients on Thursday, pointing out that iron ore’s “fundamental outlook remains bleak” as prices trade below $100/ton level. 

Here are the highlights from the note:

• The fundamental outlook remains bleak, in our view. While both port and in-plant iron ore stocks declined this week, visible stocks remain elevated compared to ‘normal’ August levels and mills’ destocking (despite the drop in iron ore prices) could be an indication of a negative production outlook. This would not be surprising given only 1% of Chinese steel mills are currently profitable, according to a Mysteel survey.
• Meanwhile, our China property team have cut their forecasts for gross floor area starts and completions for 2024, and our China economists have highlighted rising downside risk to Chinese growth, both of which could have negative implications for steel demand, discussed in this week’s Macro Highlight.
• In the absence of a hot metal output recovery, continued strong iron ore supply means that we maintain the view that iron ore needs to remain below $100/t for long enough to trigger a sufficient supply response to re-balance the market.

The analyst said macro data in China printed on the soft side in July. They were worried about “continued weakness across property sales, new starts and completions.” Also, they pointed out that Goldman’s property team slashed forecasts for the second half of 2024.

Here’s more from the note: 

With continued weakness across property sales, new starts and completions, our China Property team have cut their forecasts for H2 2024. The new 2024 full year base case is a YoY contraction in gross floor area (GFA) sales of -20% (prev. -12%), new starts of -22% (prev. -15%) and completions of -13% (prev. +3% YoY). The team’s forecast for property FAI remains unchanged at -12% YoY for 2024. While the new base case does imply some sequential improvement in GFA completions (currently at -22% YoY for Jan-July 2024), the expectation is that new starts (the more steel-intensive stage of property construction) continue to trend substantially below last year’s level (already a low base) over the remainder of the year, diminishing hope for any substantial pick-up in long steel demand, which is down 21% YoY YTD, according to Mysteel data, with output down by the same percentage. Also relating to Chinese long steel demand, our China economists have noted that after years of rapid infrastructure building (which has helped to put a floor under long steel consumption despite very weak property new start data over the past two years), finding new projects with decent return profiles has become increasingly challenging, posing further downside to steel demand in coming years.

However, as we have noted previously, more concerning for iron ore consumption are the growing risks to flat steel demand (used in manufacturing and for exports) due to the strong correlation with hot metal output and iron ore consumption. With export growth expected to moderate, our China economists state that higher domestic demand growth is needed to fill the gap in order to achieve the 2024 growth target of “around 5%”. Likewise, we argue that stronger domestic demand will be necessary in supporting flat steel production, and therefore iron ore consumption, in the scenario that steel exports, either direct or indirect via manufacturing, fall. This is a scenario that looks increasingly likely.

However, we are doubtful of the extent to which domestic demand will be able to pick up any slack. In the near term, our China economists believe that the downside risk to China growth is rising, and private demand appears to be weakening in the data. Urban unemployment rates appear to be increasing, which could have a negative impact on household consumption in H2 (for example, potential further weakness in retail sales following declines in June and July), and corporate demand deposits dropped 18% YoY, suggesting that corporates do not plan to increase investment in the near term. Alongside potentially weaker demand, destocking could also trigger a further reduction in flat steel output in H2. Mysteel-reported flat steel stocks are significantly above August levels of previous years on record (Exhibit 19), concentrated in traders’ holdings (mills’ stocks are within a normal range). Today’s data showed the biggest WoW drop in traders’ flat steel stocks since the post-Lunar New Year destock in March, and we will be keeping an eye on whether this trend continues over the coming weeks.

Beyond this year, our China economists expect GDP growth to slow from a nearly 7% average in the 5 years before the pandemic to 3% by 2034 on weakening demographics, the prolonged property downturn, and global supply-chain de-risking. This will likely have mostly negative effects on global commodity demand growth, including for steel, for which we estimate global demand growth falls by 1.4pp when China growth slows by 1pp.

This is the most stunning chart from the report, showing that only 1% of steel mills are profitable in the world’s second-largest economy. As profitability collapses, hot metal output declines. 

Iron ore prices in China have slid to a 21-month low. 

Metal stocks are high at ports and steel mills. Reports have surfaced that producers are flooding the world with cheap iron ore. 

Global supplies are still elevated. 

And consumption is soft. 

Meanwhile, JPM Global Manufacturing PMI has slid (<50) into a contraction. 

While the property market slowdown continues in the world’s second-largest economy, in the US—the world’s largest economy—there are new fears that government statisticians may have overstated the economy’s strength (read here), influenced by the White House in an election year, leading to concerns that the economy may be much weaker than cheerleaded by VP Harris and President Biden.

end

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

ENGLAND/

Free speech crackdown continues and this time against extremist ideologies

(Turley)

“It’s Not OK Any More”: UK Free Speech Crack-Down Targets “Extremist Ideologies”

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Jonathan Turley,

The crackdown on free speech continues in the United Kingdom as officials use recent rioting to justify a roundup of citizens who they view as “pushing harmful and hateful beliefs.”

The government is ramping up arrests of those with “extremist ideologies” in the latest wave of arrests. 

The crackdown includes those accused of misogynist views.

In my book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” I discuss how difficult it is to get a free people to give up freedoms. They have to be afraid, very afraid.

For that reason, governments tend to attack free speech during periods of public anger or fear.

That pattern is playing out, yet again, in the United Kingdom.

The recent anti-immigration riots have given officials a renewed opportunity to use anti-free speech laws to target those with opposing views.

For years, I have been writing about the decline of free speech in the United Kingdom and the steady stream of arrests.

A man was convicted for sending a tweet while drunk referring to dead soldiers.

Another was arrested for an anti-police t-shirt. 

Another was arrested for calling the Irish boyfriend of his ex-girlfriend a “leprechaun.” 

Yet another was arrested for singing “Kung Fu Fighting.” 

A teenager was arrested for protesting outside of a Scientology center with a sign calling the religion a “cult.”

Last year, Nicholas Brock, 52, was convicted of a thought crime in Maidenhead, Berkshire.

The neo-Nazi was given a four-year sentence for what the court called his “toxic ideology” based on the contents of the home he shared with his mother in Maidenhead, Berkshire.

While most of us find Brock’s views repellent and hateful, they were confined to his head and his room.

Yet, Judge Peter Lodder QC dismissed free speech or free thought concerns with a truly Orwellian statement:

“I do not sentence you for your political views, but the extremity of those views informs the assessment of dangerousness.”

Lodder lambasted Brock for holding Nazi and other hateful values:

“[i]t is clear that you are a right-wing extremist, your enthusiasm for this repulsive and toxic ideology is demonstrated by the graphic and racist iconography which you have studied and appeared to share with others…”

Even though Lodder agreed that the defendant was older, had limited mobility, and “there was no evidence of disseminating to others,” he still sent him to prison for holding extremist views.

After the sentencing Detective Chief Superintendent Kath Barnes, Head of Counter Terrorism Policing South East (CTPSE), warned others that he was going to prison because  he “showed a clear right-wing ideology with the evidence seized from his possessions during the investigation….We are committed to tackling all forms of toxic ideology which has the potential to threaten public safety and security.”

“Toxic ideology” also appears to be the target of Ireland’s proposed Criminal Justice (Incitement to Violence or Hatred and Hate Offences) law. It covers the possession of material deemed hateful. The law is a free speech nightmare.  The law makes it a crime to possess “harmful material” as well as “condoning, denying or grossly trivialising genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity and crimes against peace.” The law expressly states the intent to combat “forms and expressions of racism and xenophobia by means of criminal law.”

The Brock case proved, as feared, a harbinger of what was to come.

The home secretary, Yvette Cooper, has vowed to crack down on people “pushing harmful and hateful beliefs.” That includes what she calls extreme misogyny.

Cooper said that the problem revealed by the recent protests was “gaps in the current system” and stressed that “it’s not OK any more to ignore the massive growing threat caused by online hatred towards women and for us to ignore it because we’re worried about the line, rather than making sure the line is in the right place as we would do with any other extremist ideology.”

She added:

 “For too long governments have failed to address the rise in extremism, both online and on our streets, and we’ve seen the number of young people radicalised online grow. Hateful incitement of all kinds fractures and frays the very fabric of our communities and our democracy.”

For free speech advocates, it is chilling to hear UK officials state that they have been too lax on free speech in the past and must now take censorship and arrests more aggressively.

The United Kingdom has a myriad of laws criminalizing speech with vague terms allowing for arbitrary enforcement. For example, Public Order Act 1986 prohibits any expressions of racial hatred, defined as hatred against a group of persons by reason of the group’s color, race, nationality (including citizenship) or ethnic or national origins.

Section 18 of the Act specifically includes any speech that is “threatening, abusive, or insulting.” An arrest does not have to be based on a showing of intent to “stir up racial hatred,” but can merely be based on a charge that “having regard to all the circumstances racial hatred is likely to be stirred up thereby.”

For those Americans who have remained silent during as this anti-free speech movement grows, you need only to look to the United Kingdom to see what this movement means for our “indispensable right.”

That wave has now reached our shores and it will require each one of us to defend a right that defines us all.

Jonathan Turley is the Shapiro Professor of Public Interest Law at George Washington University. He is the author of “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage” (Simon & Schuster).

END

CZECH REPUBLIC//NATO/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Czech President calls for NATO to accept Ukraine into NATO even if occupied by Russia

(zerohedge)

Ukraine Should Join NATO Even If Russia Occupies Its Land, Czech President Says

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 04:15 AM

Czech President Petr Pavel has issued a new statement which seeks to pressure NATO to speed up Ukraine’s admission into the Western military alliance. Most analysts consider that Ukraine’s accession will take years, possibly even decades, given of course that there is an active hot war unfolding in the country.

Pavel is calling for Ukraine to join NATO even if it doesn’t retake all of its territory. He says the alliance shouldn’t be overly concerned that it is ground zero of an ongoing conflict with Russia. “I don’t think that full restoration of control over the entire territory is a prerequisite,” Pavel told Czech newspaper Novinky a Právo.

“If there is a demarcation, even an administrative border, then we can treat this administrative border as temporary and accept Ukraine into NATO in the territory it will control at that time,” he added.

He cited as an example West Germany, which was allowed to joint NATO in 1955, before it ultimately was able to unify with Soviet-held East Germany in 1990.

“Although part of Germany was occupied by the Soviet Union … the rest was accepted into NATO,” the Czech leader said.

“So I think that there is both technically and a legal solution to allow Ukraine to join NATO without bringing NATO into conflict with the Russian Federation.”

But this still ignores the fact the Article 5 means Ukraine’s entry into NATO would automatically trigger a major war, requiring the alliance’s 32 member countries to rush to the fight with Russia. Below is what the article 5 common defense clause says in full:

Article 5

“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

Yet even now, despite Ukraine not being a member, NATO has been sucked ever deeper into the conflict through the constant providing of more sophisticated weapons, including main battle tanks and F-16s, but also advisers and intelligence officers.

Use of Western weapons in the war grows riskier as US-supplied HIMARS now pummel Russia’s Kursk region…

The great risk of invading Kursk – Prof Glenn Diesen on Al Jazeera

– Is Ukraine trading its best troops and NATO military equipment for temporary control over territory with little strategic significance?https://t.co/V3FmnGuba0 pic.twitter.com/NTkaCH17WS

— Glenn Diesen (@Glenn_Diesen) August 22, 2024

The Kremlin too already views it this way – that NATO is increasingly a direct party to the war. President Putin has even warned that should F-16s supplied to Kiev begin conducting missions from external airbases outside Ukraine, these bases are fair game for potential attack by Moscow forces, even if they are in NATO territory.

END

HUNGARY/RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Hungary Again Breaks With West: Ukrainian Attack On Kursk Is ‘Wrong’

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 11:05 AM

Hungary has broken with its NATO and EU allies in condemning Ukraine’s Kursk incursion, calling it out as not purely ‘defensive’ but as part of needlessly provocative offensive operations against Russian territory.

Gergely Gulyas, top advisor and spokesman for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said in a Thursday press briefing that Budapest is staunchly “pro-peace” – and when asked about the ongoing Kursk invasion, he said: “Ukraine is not only defending, but also attacking. We want a ceasefire and peace.”

Gulyas went on to explain that Hungary is against anything which thwarts potential diplomatic settlement to the war. He said this is “wrong” given the offensive includes a “spillover of the hostilities into Russian territory.”

“The Hungarian government representative also called on Ukraine and Russia not to forget that they are also responsible for Europe’s energy security,” Ukrainian media noted of the briefing. “He was referring to the transportation of Russian oil and gas through Ukrainian territory.”

The question of the EU’s gas supply which is piped through Ukraine has come into sharp focus with the Kursk operation, given that early on Ukraine forces captured the Gazprom-administered Sudzha station.

While the potential for infrastructure damage remains largely unknown, it seems clear at this point that neither Kiev nor Moscow wants to end the transport of gas via Sudzha. Deutsche Welle writes:

Benjamin Hilgenstock from the Kyiv School of Economics says if Ukraine wanted to end the flow of Russian gas, it could do so from within its own territory at any time, so there is no reason for them to seize the station at Sudzha for this particular purpose.

“I’m not entirely sure if this is relevant,” he told DW. “If Ukraine wanted to stop the transit of Russian gas, it could.”

Operators in Austria and Hungary said that despite fighting in Sudzha, gas supply had not yet been disrupted. Hungary especially has been getting more and more nervous over the possibility, however.

Orban has certainly not shared the same enthusiasm for developments in Kursk as other European leaders. For example, recently the EU’s top diplomat Josep Borrell “reiterated the EU’s full support to the [Ukrainian] people’s fight.”

Hungary’s government wants Ukraine to cease fire in Kursk Oblast

Hungary’s government wants Ukraine to cease fire in Kursk Oblast

From pravda.com.ua

9:57 PM · Aug 22, 2024

·

42K View

Interestingly, there’s been similar pushback coming from Italy of late related to the Kursk offensive, akin to Hungary’s criticisms:

Italy’s Defence Minister Guido Crosetto has ignited a political firestorm with comments that appear to question Ukraine’s military operations inside Russian territory, POLITICO reported. In an interview, Crosetto warned that ‘no country should invade another country’ and expressed concerns over the conflict escalating into Russian territory, which could complicate efforts toward peace. His remarks have raised doubts about Italy’s commitment to Ukraine, despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s staunch support for Kyiv since the start of Russia’s invasion.

Crosetto emphasized that the weapons provided to Ukraine by Italy are intended strictly for defensive purposes, clarifying that these arms ‘do not have the possibility of being used for an attack on Russian territory’.

On a strategic level, while Ukraine forces have certainly dealt a serious morale blow to Kremlin leadership, Russia is still on the advance in the Donbass, where the front line to the conflict is located. If and when Ukraine’s Kursk operation utterly fails, it will have translated into no actual strategic gains in eastern Ukraine.

end

5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/

Israeli team in Cairo for hostage negotiations, Qatari PM to head to Iran next week

The Cairo trip comes amid debate about Netanyahu’s firm stance that the IDF must maintain a presence in the Philadelphi Corridor.

By TOVAH LAZAROFFAUGUST 22, 2024 19:50Updated: AUGUST 22, 2024 22:46

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An Israeli team is in Cairo for negotiations on the hostage deal, while the security cabinet met in Tel Aviv and Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed Al Thani is expected to head to Iran early next week.

Thursday’s Cairo talks come amid a stiff debate about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s firm stance that the IDF must maintain a presence in the Philadelphi Corridor. He has stressed that he will not accept any hostage deal that calls for Israel to withdraw from that corridor. Hamas in turn has insisted Israel must fully withdraw from the corridor.

Philadelphi Corridor a significant factor in talks

The Prime Minister’s Office stressed that “Netanyahu insists on the principle that Israel control the Philadelphi Corridor in order to prevent Hamas from rearming itself, which would afford it the capability of repeating the atrocities of October 7.”

It also rejected a report that suggested a resolution to the issue could be a “multi-national force along the Philadelphi Corridor.”

That corridor is considered to be a critical buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza. Any plan for IDF troops to remain in that corridor would need agreement from Egypt.

Egypt and Qatar have been the main mediators for the deal to secure the return of the remaining 109 hostages, with the help of the US. Al Thani has been a critical part of the negotiations and was part of the Doha talks that took place last week.

Israel’s security cabinet met Thursday night in advance of an expected high-level summit in Egypt over the weekend or early next week on the hostages, as Israel remains braced for a retaliatory strike by Iran and its proxy group Hezbollah.

The US has hoped that a Gaza ceasefire and hostage deal would thwart reprisal attacks by Iran and Hezbollah, which Washington fears would spark a regional war.

Thursday’s Cairo talks were expected to seek resolutions on Philadelphi in advance of the higher-level summit.US Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Israel, Egypt, and Qatar on Monday and Tuesday to set the ground for those high-level talks, which the US has described as end-game negotiations.

US lead negotiator CIA Director Bill Burns, Mossad chief David Barnea, Al Thani, and Egypt’s lead negotiator are expected to attend those high-level Cairo talks.

---

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Former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot, now an MK in a high-level position in the National Unity Party, told Army Radio that Netanyahu was treating the Philadelphi as if it was the “Western Wall.”

Netanyahu can afford to be flexible on the issue and come up with long-term solutions later and focus instead now on the hostages, whose lives are at risk on a daily basis, he said.

Russian Deputy Ambassador to the United Nations Dmitry A. Polyanskiy said Thursday in New York that the UN Security Council should push a new Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal.

“Let’s pass a new document which would send an unequivocal signal to the spoilers that what they are doing will not be allowed to happen with impunity,” Polyanskiy told the UNSC as it held its monthly meeting on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

That resolution should have a “toolbox which could help end violence, regardless of the whims displayed by any of the sides to the conflict,” he said.

The UNSC in June had endorsed the Gaza deal US President Joe Biden had unveiled on May 31, with Russia abstaining. Both Israel and Hamas accepted the framework of that agreement but the US has struggled to bridge the gaps between the sides with respect to its implementation.

Two weeks ago the US put forward a bridging proposal which Israel has accepted, that appeared to leave open the debate on the Philadelphi Corridor.

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas Greenfield blamed Hamas for the impasse and asked the UNSC to pressure Hamas to accept the proposal.

“Israel has accepted the bridging proposal. Now, Hamas must do the same,” Thomas-Greenfield said.

“As members of this council, we must speak with one voice, and we must use our leverage to press Hamas to accept the bridging proposal which includes massive and immediate benefits for the Palestinians in Gaza and incorporates a number of Hamas’ earlier demands,” she stressed.

Polanskiy blamed Netanyahu and the US.

“We continue thinking it’s unacceptable that members of the Security Council in June signed off on an obviously false statement in the American resolution, where it said that Israel supposedly had already agreed to the proposed deal,”  Polyanskiy said.

Israel “had no intention of stopping their military operation in Gaza,” he said.

Now the US is pushing an amended deal that suits Israel that the UNSC never endorsed, he said.

“According to the information we have, Israel is now insisting on keeping the idea of military presence in Gaza, including their control over the crossing with Egypt and the Philadelphi corridor,” Polyanskiy explained.

“We do note that such a change as to the parameters of the deal is also something that some countries in the region are vehemently objective,” he said.

Thomas-Greenfield assured the council that the bridging proposal was in line with the original document, as she pledged US support for Israel’s security.

“No one in the region should take any action that would undermine ongoing negotiations,” Thomas-Greenfield said.“Colleagues, this is a decisive moment. It’s a decisive moment for ceasefire talks and for the region. And so, every member of this council should continue to send strong messages to other actors in the region to avoid actions that would move us away from finalizing this deal,” she stressed.

Late Wednesday night US President Joe Biden spoke with Netanyahu about the urgency of reaching a hostage and ceasefire deal.

“The President stressed the urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage release deal to closure and discussed upcoming talks in Cairo to remove any remaining obstacle,” the White House said after the call, which included Vice President Kamala Harris.

Biden and Netanyahu, the White House said, “discussed active and ongoing US efforts to support Israel’s defense against all threats from Iran, including its proxy terrorist groups Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, to include ongoing defensive US military deployments.”

Reuters contributed to this report.

end

Israeli negotiators fly to Cairo amid deep disagreements over Philadelphi Corridor

Sources say talks in jeopardy over Netanyahu’s insistence on continued IDF deployment along Egypt-Gaza border; PMO denies reports that he would accept international force there

By Lazar Berman FollowToday, 1:07 a

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (L) speaks to Mossad chief David Barnea at Mossad headquarters during a New Year toast on September 14, 2023. (Kobi Gideon/GPO)

Israel’s negotiating team flew to Cairo on Thursday for talks on a hostage deal with Hamas, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel, as chances for an immediate breakthrough appeared increasingly remote.

The team was headed by Mossad chief David Barnea, and included Maj. Gen. Eliezer Toledano, head of the IDF General Staff Strategy and Third-Circle Directorate.

CIA chief William Burns, the top American negotiator on the hostage issue, is leading the US team, CNN reported.

The Cairo negotiations took place amid dwindling expectations for significant progress in the near future for a deal that would see Israeli hostages released by Hamas in exchange for an extended pause in the fighting in Gaza and the release of many Palestinian prisoners serving life sentences for murdering Israelis.

A central sticking point in the talks is whether the IDF will continue to hold the Gaza-Egypt border area in the event of a deal. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists that an Israeli presence on the Philadelphi Corridor is vital to preventing Hamas from re-arming, while Hamas says Israeli forces must withdraw entirely.

Disagreements over Israel’s future military presence in Gaza and over Palestinian prisoner releases are obstructing the ceasefire-for-hostages deal, 10 sources familiar with the round of US-mediated talks that concluded last week told Reuters.

Illustrative: Egyptian soldiers patrol on a road parallel to the Philadelphi Corridor, a buffer zone that separates Egypt from Israel and the Palestinian Gaza Strip, March 19, 2007. ( Cris Bouroncle/AFP)

All the sources said Hamas was especially concerned about the latest demand to keep troops deployed along the Netzarim Corridor, an east-west strip Israel cleared during the current war that prevents Palestinians’ free movement between north and south Gaza, as well as in the narrow border strip between Gaza and Egypt.

Hamas sees Israel as having changed its conditions and parameters “last-minute,” and worries any concessions it makes would be met by more demands, one of the sources, who is close to the talks, told Reuters.

Netanyahu sent Israel’s negotiators to Cairo with updated maps showing a reduced IDF deployment along the Philadelphi Corridor, according to Channel 12.

Families of Israeli surveillance soldiers who were kidnapped by Hamas terrorists from Nahal Oz base on October 7 and their supporters demonstrate for a hostage deal, outside the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv, August 21, 2024. (Tomer Neuberg/Flash90)

The question now is whether Netanyahu’s latest position will be enough for Egypt to press Hamas into accepting a deal, the report said. If there is the possibility of some kind of breakthrough, there could be a follow-up meeting on Sunday.

In a separate report, Channel 12 quoted Egyptian sources saying Hamas is prepared to consider an arrangement whereby international forces are deployed both at the Philadelphi Corridor and at the Netzarim Corridor separating the south of the strip from the north.

Egypt is prepared to take more security measures in the Philadelphi corridor but rejects the presence of Israeli troops there, Egyptian security sources told Reuters.

IDF soldiers operate in the southern Gaza city of Rafah on August 13, 2024. (IDF)

According to the Qatari Al-Araby Al-Jadeed newspaper, the Israeli delegation came to Cairo with a new proposal that would have a United Nations monitoring mission permanently deployed at a number of fixed points along the Gaza-Egypt border. The European Union would have a mission at the Rafah Crossing along with the Palestinian Authority, according to the plan. IDF troops would gradually withdraw from the border, said the report.

The Prime Minister’s Office put out a statement earlier Thursday denying reports that he would agree to an international force on the Philadelphi Corridor.

“Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on the principle that Israel will control the Philadelphi route, to prevent the rearming of Hamas, which would allow it the ability to repeat the atrocities of October 7,” the PMO said.

Egyptian army soldiers guard their side of the Rafah crossing, closed since early May, on July 4, 2024. (Giuseppe CACACE / AFP)

Channel 12 also said Hamas is prepared to let Israel veto up to 50 of the hundreds of Palestinian security prisoners it wants released, while Israel wants the right to veto 65 of the most dangerous potential releases. And it said Hamas is prepared to allow Israel to send more prisoners into exile than previously; Israel wants the right to exile 150.

Additionally, the report said, Israel’s maps showing troop deployments and the timing of IDF withdrawals are not entirely clear to Hamas.

An Israeli official stressed to The Times of Israel on Thursday that “the prime minister stands behind the principle that Israel will rule the Philadelphi Route.”

The official said that “there is a reason we agreed” to the US bridging proposal offered in Doha last week, and that it meets Israel’s security demands.

Ronen Bar, head of the Shin Bet security agency, attends a Holocaust Remembrance Day ceremony at the Yad Vashem memorial in Jerusalem, May 5, 2024. (Chain Goldberg/Flash90)

But Netanyahu’s own negotiating team — Mossad Chief David Barnea, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar and IDF point man Nitzan Alon —  is reportedly at odds with their boss over his demands in negotiations.

Netanyahu has been telling “political elements” in recent days that the negotiating team is weak and constantly seeking to compromise in the talks, while he is “on my own” trying to protect Israel’s security needs, Channel 12 reported.

Netanyahu has been widely reported to have repeatedly upbraided the negotiators face-to-face for their ostensible weakness. But the television report Thursday evening said he is now sharing these criticisms with political interlocutors.

The report noted that it is surprising that Netanyahu would be criticizing his security chiefs in comments to politicians, when he is depending on the security establishment to achieve “total victory” in Gaza and to handle a potential regional escalation if there is no deal.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu convenes a security cabinet meeting on July 28, 2024. (Haim Zach/GPO)

“I’m on my own, facing the entire security establishment and the negotiating chiefs,” the TV report quoted Netanyahu saying. “They are showing weakness and just looking for ways to capitulate, while I’m insisting on the interests of the State of Israel and am not prepared to concede to demands that would harm security.”

The negotiators, said the report, do not regard the prime minister’s insistence on an Israeli presence on the Philadelphi Corridor as essential, but rather as a “spoke in the wheels” of the talks. The IDF only moved to capture the Philadelphi Corridor in May, eight months into the war.

The report said the Philadelphi Corridor was a “central issue” in last night’s phone call between Netanyahu, US President Joe Biden and US Vice President Kamala Harris, and that the premier said during the call he would show flexibility.

Regardless of whether there is a deal or not, Israel will continue to fight to achieve its war aims, said the Israeli official: “We are fighting Hamas as if there are no negotiations, and we are negotiating as if there is no war.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu calls US President Joe Biden from IDF’s Kirya military headquarters in Tel Aviv on April 14, 2024. (GPO)

“The prime minister’s position is that we must apply military and diplomatic pressure on Hamas to reach a deal,” continued the official. “The military pressure is continuing, in parallel with diplomatic pressure from the mediating countries.”

A deal does not mean the war is over, the official emphasized.

“So long as Hamas doesn’t agree to a deal, we will continue fighting,” said the official.

“Even if they do, the war will continue,” the official continued. “Of course, if there is a deal, there will be a lull in the fighting in the first stage. But we will continue fighting until we achieve all of our war aims.”

end

Soldier killed by anti-tank fire in Rafah, as IDF presses on with operations in Gaza

Military says troops killed some 50 terror operatives in Rafah over past day, where Sgt. Ori Ashkenazi Nechemya was killed

By Emanuel Fabian Follow22 August 2024, 10:40 pm

Sgt. Ori Ashkenazi Nechemya, 19, was killed in battle in the Gaza Strip on August 22, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

An Israeli soldier was killed during fighting in southern Gaza on Thursday, the Israel Defense Forces announced, as troops pressed on with operations across the Strip.

The slain soldier was named as Sgt. Ori Ashkenazi Nechemya, 19, of the 401st Armored Brigade’s 46th Battalion, from Ashkelon.

According to an initial IDF probe, Nechemya was killed by anti-tank missile fire in southern Gaza’s Rafah.

His death brought Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip to 336.

Earlier Thursday, the IDF said that some 50 terror operatives were killed by troops of the 162nd Division in the Tel Sultan neighborhood of Rafah over the past day.

The IDF said that in one incident in Tel Sultan, troops of the Nahal Brigade spotted a cell of gunmen heading to attack them, and called in a drone strike.

An Israeli Namer APC operates in the Gaza Strip in an image released on August 22, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Further north, in Khan Younis and on the outskirts of Deir al-Balah, the military said an operation being carried out by the 98th Division continued, following intelligence of Hamas infrastructure and operatives in the area.

Troops with the 98th Division killed several gunmen and destroyed dozens of sites belonging to terror groups in the past day, according to the IDF.

Several more gunmen were killed in airstrikes in the central Gaza Strip, directed by reservists of the 252nd Division, who were operating in the Netzarim Corridor area.

Meanwhile, the IDF also announced on Thursday that it struck a Hamas weapons depot adjacent to the Salah ad-Din School in Gaza City.

On Wednesday, the military said it carried out an airstrike against a Hamas command room embedded within the Salah ad-Din School building. It said the weapons depot was in a separate building, located just outside the school compound, and it was hit in a separate strike on Wednesday night.

IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip in an image released on August 22, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

The IDF said the building was used to store rockets and other weapons intended to be used to attack Israel.

Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza following the terror group’s onslaught on southern Israel on October 7, during which it killed around 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, 105 of whom are believed to still be held in the Gaza Strip.

The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 40,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 17,000 combatants in battle and some 1,000 terrorists inside Israel during the October 7 attack

END

ISRAEL HAMAS/

IDF targets Gaza terrorists: Dozens eliminated in day of intense operations

The IDF has eliminated dozens of terrorists in Gaza, with extensive strikes and close-quarters combat aimed at dismantling threats to Israeli security.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 23, 2024 10:3

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Over the past day, the IDF eliminated dozens of terrorists and terrorist infrastructure sites in both central and southern Gaza, the IDF said on Friday.

IDF troops engaged in close-quarters combat, targeting and neutralizing several terrorists who posed immediate threats, the military added. 

In one incident, troops identified a terrorist who posed a threat.  The soldiers subsequently coordinated with the IAF for a targeted strike.

The IDF also struck areas from which projectiles had been launched toward southern Israeli communities over the past week, the military added.

In the Tel al-Sultan region of Rafah, multiple terrorists were eliminated as they posed direct threats to IDF personnel, the IDF continued.

Similarly, in the central Gaza Strip, a terrorist armed with explosives was reportedly neutralized near IDF personnel, and a launch post used for attacking IDF positions was destroyed.

30 strikes

Throughout the day, the IAF carried out approximately 30 strikes against terror targets in the Gaza Strip. These included military structures, weapons storage facilities, and launch sites, particularly in Khan Yunis, the military noted.

The operations were intended to disrupt and dismantle terrorist capabilities and reduce the threat posed to Israeli civilians and military personnel.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS

WATCH: IDF destroys kilometer-long Hamas terror tunnel in Rafah, finds explosives, blast doors

The IDF dismantled a one-kilometer Hamas terror tunnel in Rafah, Gaza, eliminating terrorists emerging from the tunnel shaft.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFAUGUST 23, 2024 16:00Updated: AUGUST 23, 2024 16:21

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3759530&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-816061IDF destroys a one-kilometer-long Hamas terror tunnel in Rafah, Gaza Strip. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-hamas-war%2Farticle-816061&unitId=2900003088&userId=0984023a-6fcf-4b29-a5e6-1be85cfd6d0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240819_64f75c15024b88d5dd8e634412042455116db9d9&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-08-23/live-updates-816002

The IDF dismantled a one-kilometer-long Hamas terror tunnel in the Rafah area in the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported on Friday midday.

Soldiers from the Southern Gaza Brigade, together with Combat Engineering Unit and Yahalom Unit soldiers located and destroyed a Hamas attack tunnel route in the Rafah area.

The IDF further reported that in the past few weeks, the Hamas terror tunnel was investigated and explosives, electrical infrastructure, and blast doors were discovered along the tunnel.

Evidence of use of the terror tunnel

According to the IDF, on August 11, Observer soldiers from the Gaza Division identified a Hamas terrorist cell that emerged out of the tunnel shaft in the Rafah area to attack IDF soldiers.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3759528&url=www.jpost.comHamas terrorists emerge from a tunnel in Gaza, and are eliminated by IDF fire. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

The incident provided the IDF with evidence of ongoing terrorist activities in the area and continued use of underground facilities in the Gaza Strip, the report noted.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3759529&url=www.jpost.comAn IDF drone scans a Hamas terror tunnel in Rafah, Gaza Strip. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

The IDF added that following the identification of the terrorist cell emerging from the tunnel, IAF aircraft, directed by the Southern Gaza Brigade’s fire control center, eliminated the terrorists.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

After rockets fired at Sderot, IDF calls on Palestinians to evacuate to west of Gaza City

By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 6:58 pm

•  

Following rocket fire from the northern Gaza Strip at the southern city of Sderot an hour ago, the military is calling on Palestinians in the Atatra area to evacuate and head to “shelters west of Gaza City.”

Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, publishes a map of the zones that need to be evacuated.

He says that the military will “forcefully operate” against Hamas and other terror groups in the area, following the rocket fire.

Two rockets were launched at Sderot in the attack, with one being intercepted and the other impacting an open area.

The IDF in recent months has repeatedly issued evacuation orders for areas from which terrorists launched rockets at Israel.

end

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/EUROPE/USA

Suezmax Tanker Crew Forced To Abandon Ship After Missile Attack In Red Sea

Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 03:35 PM

The X account for EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, the European Union’s military operation committed to ensuring freedom of navigation and maritime security in the Red Sea, reported that the crew of a Suezmax tanker—the largest type of oil tanker capable of transiting the Suez Canal—was forced to abandon ship after “coming under attack.” 

Greek-flagged oil tanker MV Sounion was bombarded in what earlier reports stated was a missile attack about 77 nautical miles west of the Yemeni port of Hodeidah, an area controlled by Iran-backed Houthis. 

EUNAVFOR ASPIDES dispatched a naval vessel to Sounion after the attack. While rescuing the crew, gunners on the warship destroyed a kamikaze boat drone. 

On August 21, the MV SOUNION, which had not asked for EUNAFVOR ASPIDES 🇪🇺 protection, came under an attack in the South Red Sea area and lost its engine power.

Following a request from the master, the operation dispatched a ship in order to rescue the crew.

While approaching the area, the EUNAVFOR ASPIDES ship destroyed an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) that posed an imminent threat to the ship and the crew. All on board the MV SOUNION were subsequently rescued and are being transported to Djibouti, the nearest safe port of call.

The Financial Times reported the tanker “was set on fire and left drifting by a series of attacks on Wednesday, including three missile strikes,” noting that “no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks.” 

EUNAVFOR ASPIDES warned the tanker is carrying 150,000 tonnes of crude and now “represents a navigational and environmental hazard,” adding, “It is essential that everyone in the area exercises caution and refrains from any actions that could lead to a deterioration of the current situation.” 

On August 21, the MV SOUNION, which had not asked for EUNAFVOR ASPIDES

protection, came under an attack in the South Red Sea area and lost its engine power. Following a request from the master, the operation dispatched a ship in order to rescue the crew. While approaching the area, the EUNAVFOR ASPIDES ship destroyed an Unmanned Surface Vessel (USV) that posed an imminent threat to the ship and the crew. All on board the MV SOUNION were subsequently rescued and are being transported to Djibouti, the nearest safe port of call. The lives of seafarers and freedom on the high seas are nonnegotiable values and their protection is a key objective of EUNAVFOR ASPIDES. Carrying 150.000 tonnes of crude oil, the MV SOUNION now represents a navigational and environmental hazard. It is essential that everyone in the area exercises caution and refrains from any actions that could lead to a deterioration of the current situation. EUNAVFOR ASPIDES

with a defensive mandate acts as a credible EU maritime security provider, with the aim to contribute to the freedom of navigation in the area of operation and the safe passage of merchant vessels.

@eu_eeas

#MaritimeSecurity #RedSea

6:10 AM · Aug 22, 2024

·

60.7K Views

Since its implementation at the start of the year, the Biden-Harris administration’s Operation Prosperity Guardian has been a disaster. The mission to bolster freedom of navigation and regional security in the region has failed, with dozens of merchant ships attacked by Houthis, sparking a global supply chain shock across the shipping industry. 

Container rates… 

A significant concern about the failing Operation Prosperity Guardian is that it threatens to undermine American credibility and maritime security globally. China is closely watching…

end

TALIBAN

New Taliban Vice Laws Forbid Women From Looking At Men, Singing In Public, Solo Travel

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 06:55 AM

Just over three years after taking power in the wake of the disastrously-executed US military withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban government has issued its first formal vice laws, which include many sharp restrictions on the conduct of women, alongside broader societal rules.  

“Inshallah, we assure you that this Islamic law will be of great help in the promotion of virtue and the elimination of vice,” said Ministry for the Propagation of Virtue and the Prevention of Vice spokesman Maulvi Abdul Ghafar Farooq on Thursday. (“Inshallah” translates as “If God wills it.”) The Taliban created the ministry upon taking over the country, and it has the lead responsibility for enforcement via warnings and arrests. 

Spanning 114 pages and comprising 35 articles, the new set of laws was published Wednesday after being approved by Afghanistan’s reclusive Supreme Leader Hibatullah Akhundzada. Focusing on women, Article 13 requires women’s bodies to be veiled whenever they’re in public, to avoid tempting or being tempted. It stipulates that the covering should be thick, loose and long, the Associated Press reported.

Lest women be corrupted, covering is required any time they’re in the presence of non-Muslim men or women. It’s now officially illegal for women to look at men unless they’re married or blood relatives; men are likewise prohibited from looking at non-related women. Women are barred from letting their voices be heard singing or reading aloud in public. In 2022, the Taliban banned girls from attending secondary schools and universities.

Under Article 19, women are not allowed to be transported alone, and traveling, un-related men and women must be segregated. Passengers and their transporters are required to pray at required intervals. It is also illegal to publish images of living beings. In addition to barring practices that conflict with Islamic law, Afghanistan’s virtue and vice ministry is charged with promoting the “five pillars of Islam“: 

• Shahada (Faith)
• Salah (Prayer)
• Zakat (Almsgiving)
• Sawm (Fasting during the Ramadan holy month)
• Hajj (Pilgrimage to Mecca)

Earlier this month, Afghanistan commemorated the three-year anniversary of the US withdrawal with military parades that showcased the enormous arsenal the Taliban inherited, which included Black Hawk helicopters, A-29 Super Tucano attack aircraft, armored Humvees, and 600,000 other weapons such as grenade launchers, machine guns, and rifles. 

NEW: The Taliban held a military parade at Bagram Airfield in Afghanistan with the US military equipment they stole after the disastrous Biden-Harris withdrawal.

The Taliban was celebrating the third anniversary of taking over the former US air base as they trolled the US with… pic.twitter.com/UUuANxX4UO

— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) August 14, 2024

With the formal imposition of the new vice laws, Afghanistan’s women are back where they were before the US invasion and decades-long occupation that squandered the lives of 2,448 US service members and an astonishing $2.3 trillion. In addition to more than 150,000 Afghan dead — only about a third of whom were the purported “bad guys”  — the country was left worse off by many measures, such as far higher child malnutrition and poverty levels. 

Meanwhile, as Andrew Korybko noted in his profile of Afghanistan on the third anniversary of the Taliban’s return to power, US sanctions are “imped[ing] the country’s socio-economic recovery...[with] hopes that the difficult living conditions…might one day give rise to a rebellion that could threaten the Taliban’s control.” 

Isn’t there a succinct term for the victimization of civilians to accomplish political goals? In any event, maybe Operation Enduring Freedom should have been called Operation Enduring Misery.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Russia says it destroyed a USA Mi Abrams tank in Kursk

(zerohedge)

Russia’s Military Says It Destroyed US M1 Abrams Tank In Kursk

BY TYLER DURDEN

FRIDAY, AUG 23, 2024 – 05:45 AM

For the first time since the August 6th Kursk incursion, Russian forces claim they have destroyed a US-made Abrams tank used by the Ukrainian army on Russian territory.

TASS cited a top-ranking military commander, Major General Apty Alaudinov, to say Thursday that an Abrams tank was destroyed “today”. Starting a week ago Sky News began reporting on the destruction of UK-supplied Challenger II main battle tanks during the same offensive.

“Everything is very good for us on the frontline so far and everything is under control. The enemy has attempted no active combat operations today while we have destroyed about ten items of equipment, including pickup trucks and also an Abrams tank today,” the Russian general said.

“In addition, we have eliminated several artillery guns of various caliber and also several command posts. That is why, the situation is very good for us in our frontline sector,” he added.

Neither the US nor Ukrainian side have confirmed the loss of an Abrams, and it’s not expected that the Pentagon would comment on it even if true.

If confirmed, it would certainly mark a massive escalation of the war, and strongly suggests that French and German tanks are also crossing the border into Russia (or else soon will). Already the Russian side has confirmed that its aerial forces took out Bradley Fighting Vehicles during the Kursk raid, which has been unfolding for more than a week.

The US has been among a few countries which have greenlighted Kiev forces’ ability to use Western weapons to strike positions inside Russia, but only those areas from which strikes on Ukraine are launched.

The White House and Western allies have been vocal in supporting the Kursk operation, but the US claims it did not have foreknowledge of the invasion. President Biden on Tuesday told reporters, “I’ve spoken with my staff on a regular basis probably every four or five hours for the last six or eight days.”

Various Russian media and independent accounts have claimed to have footage of a US M1 Abrams being disabled or destroyed inside Kursk Oblast…

https://youtube.com/watch?v=qJjrU8slmL4%3Fsi%3D0_H2X546LG7cgBUc

Biden previously said that “it’s creating a real dilemma for Putin.  And we’ve been in direct contact — constant contact with — with the Ukrainians.”

But by all accounts Russian forces are still advancing in Ukraine’s east, rolling back Ukrainian front lines, amid ongoing severe manpower and artillery shortages for Kiev.

RUSSIA//UKRAINE

Robert H

Observation

There are times when you see events occurring where one must question whether or not people have common sense. In the incursion and assault on the Kirks region, the Ukrainians sent in an initial Force of 11 to 12,000 people followed up by another 11,000 as a secondary wave after they found little resistance. There is no question that there was some collision and payoffs that occurred for Russian personnel to allow that incursion to occur as it did.

However, One must realize that all incursions have to take into account strategic planning and not just simply be exercises for media attention.  as the days were on the Russian military system and operation came into high gear which has real depth of supply. The result so far is over 5000 troops killed in the incursion. The majority of equipment that has gone into that region has been destroyed. It is really doubtful that losses will not exceed , more than 50% of the personnel that was sent in. A true waste that will hamper activity in the Donbas.

Overnight there was an attempt by the Ukrainians to actually hit the Kursk  nuclear plant. Total madness. You may know that Modi is visiting Kiev. It is likely the ones he leaves. We will see a massive strike on the entire Ukraine by Russia. They will further destabilize the ability of the Ukraine to wage any conflict whatsoever. It has not been widely reported, but there are been many areas in the western part of the Ukraine were there has been chemical and even nuclear, as a result of such weapons being stored on Ukrainian ground for use against Russia. Someday, we will learn the real truth and depth of the devastation has occurred.

A complete tragedy not only for the Ukrainians, but also for all those who spent billions of dollars in funding a futile conflict .

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA

end

.6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

The Monkeypox Epidemic… In Africa

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 02:45 AM

On August 14, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared an international public health emergency in response to a surge in cases of mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, particularly on the African continent.

The cause is a new strain, Clade Ib, which is feared to be highly transmissible.

It is a different variant from the one that caused the 2022 epidemic in many previously non-endemic countries (Clade IIb, still present in several parts of the world).

While one case of infection (Clade Ib) was reported in Sweden last week, and the WHO has indicated that it expects more cases on European soil in the coming weeks, the epidemic is currently mainly concentrated in Africa.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck details in the following infographic, based on data from the African Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, the Democratic Republic of Congo currently has the highest number of suspected or confirmed cases on the continent: almost 18,000 cases were recorded there between January 1 and August 16, and 535 people lost their lives over the same period.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Four clades of the virus have now been identified in Africa (Clade Ia, Clade Ib, Clade IIa, Clade IIb).

WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY

END

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

SLAY NEWS

Study Finds ‘Direct Correlation’ Between Covid Shots and Excess Deaths SurgeScientists are raising the alarm after a major peer-reviewed study uncovered a “direct correlation” between Covid mRNA shots and the skyrocketing excess death rates seen around the world.READ MORE

Study of 48,210 Healthcare Workers: Covid Infection Risk Soars with Every mRNA ‘Vaccine’ DoseA major study of 48,210 healthcare workers has concluded that the risk of becoming infected with COVID-19 increases dramatically after every dose of the mRNA “vaccines” that are supposed to protect people from the virus.READ MORE

Trump Vows to Remove Military Officials Who Pushed ‘Insulting’ Woke Agenda: ‘On Day One’President Donald Trump has vowed to remove all military officials who have pushed a radical woke agenda in the armed forces “on Day One” of his next presidency.READ MORE

Letter from Dozens of Veterans in Congress Blasting Stolen Valor Spells Doom for Tim WalzDozens of military veterans serving in Congress have signed a letter blasting radical Democrat vice presidential candidate Tim Walz over claims of stolen valor.READ MORE

CNN’s Van Jones: Democrats Have a ‘Deeper,’ More ‘Muscular Patriotism’ than RepublicansCNN’s Van Jones, a former Barack Obama advisor, has argued that Democrats are more patriotic than Republicans.READ MORE

Arizona Supreme Court Greenlights Ballot Measure to Enshrine Abortion RightsThe Supreme Court of Arizona has given the green light for a ballot measure to allow voters to decide whether abortion is a fundamental right this fall.READ MORE

Democrat Super PAC Admits Harris Polls Are ‘Much Less Rosy’ Than ReportedThe Democrats’ main outside spending group backing Kamala Harris for president says the Super PAC’s own internal opinion polling on the presidential nominee is “much less rosy” than public polls.READ MORE

Trial Date Set for Man Accused of Assassination Attempt against Justice KavanaughThe courts have set a trial date for the man charged with threatening to kill Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.READ MORE

CNN’s Dana Bash: DNC Appeals to Men Who Are Not ‘Testosterone-Laden’CNN anchor Dana Bash has argued that Democrats and the Democratic National Convention (DNC) appeal to men who are not so “testosterone-laden.”READ MORE

Ex-CNN Host Don Lemon Stunned as Black Women Tell Him They’re Voting Trump: Harris ‘Is Phony and Fake’Former CNN anchor Don Lemon was left stunned when he took to the streets of Cleveland to ask female voters who they are voting for in November.READ MORE

Biden-Harris Official Calls for ‘Queering Nuclear Weapons’ to Comply with DEI AgendaIn an announcement that will likely have America’s adversaries rubbing their hands together with glee, a top official in the Biden-Harris administration’s Department of Energy (DOE) is calling for the government to begin “queering nuclear weapons.”READ MORE

Democrat Rep Bill Pascrell Jr Dead at 87Democrat Rep. Bill Pascrell Jr. (D-NJ) has passed away at the age of 87, his family announced on Wednesday.READ MORE

Biden & Harris Caught Overcounting Job Growth Figures by One Million: ‘Numbers Were Fraudulent’The administration of President Joe Biden and Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris has been caught overcounting job growth numbers by a staggering one million, a bombshell new report has revealed.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

VOLRead more…Long Before Donald Trump, Came Grover Cleveland – EVOLRead more…Democratic National Convention 2024 in Chicago (Day 2) – EVOLRead more…Exclusive | Elon Musk Moves to Foreclose on Home He Sold to Gene Wild… – EVOLRead more…Unveiling the Disturbing Truth of the Hepatitis B Vaccine: Insights From Medical Experts – EVOLRead more…North Korean Soldier Pulls Off Risky Defection – EVOLRead more…BREAKING: Planted bomb threats reported at four Chicago hotels near DNC – EVOLRead more…A protest carnival produces little heat in Chicago – EVOLRead more…

mRNA Vaccine Inventor Blows Whistle: Monkeypox Is a ‘Biological Weapon’Celebrated vaccine scientist Dr. Robert Malone has blown the whistle to warn the public that the so-called monkeypox virus is actually a “biological weapon” that is designed to depopulate humans.READ THE FULL REPORT

Kenosha County Judge Sentences Woman to 11 Years for Killing Sex TraffickerA Wisconsin woman was sentenced to 11 years in prison on Monday for the murder of a man who had sex trafficked her. Chrystul Kizer, who claimed she was legally justified in killing the man due to being sexually trafficked by him, was sentenced after pleading guilty to a reduced charge of reckless homicide in connection with the 2018 death …READ THE FULL REPORT

BREAKING UPDATE: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to Endorse Donald Trump on Friday in Phoenix, ArizonaSources close to Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign have reportedly informed Alex Jones that a formal endorsement of Trump will be announced this Friday. On Tuesday, it was reported that RFK Jr.’s running mate, Nicole Shanahan, revealed on the Impact Theory platform that they are considering withdrawing from the presidential race to endorse Donald Trump. This decision follows ongoing sabotage …READ THE FULL REPORT

Biden-Harris Department of Energy Official Pushes for ‘Queering Nuclear Weapons’ as a Component of a Radical DEI StrategyIn February 2024, Sneha Nair was appointed as a special assistant at the National Nuclear Security Administration by the Biden-Harris administration. For the past several months, Nair has been working tirelessly to “eradicate white supremacy” and believes “queering nuclear weapons” will enhance the protection of nuclear energy facilities in the U.S. “Finally, queer theory informs the struggle for nuclear justice …READ THE FULL REPORT

[WATCH] Former NBA Star Kwame Brown: ‘Kamala’s Skin Color Ain’t Gonna Pay for Our Groceries’In a passionate outburst, former NBA #1 draft pick Kwame Brown has criticized black celebrity ‘gatekeepers,’ alleging that they are weaponizing race to pressure voters into supporting Kamala Harris. Brown is targeting influential figures such as Rickey Smiley, D.L. Hughley, and Steve Harvey, accusing them of “shaming” black voters into supporting Harris solely based on her race. “Kamala’s skin color …READ THE FULL REPORT

US birth rates plummet in 2023: CDC – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS: EVOL

US birth rates plummet in 2023: CDC – EVOL

After two consecutive years of increases, the number of births in the United States declined by 2 percent in 2023, coinciding with the end of the COVID-19 pandemic. According to a report released Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics, 3,596,017 babies were born in 2023. This represents a decrease from the 3,667,758 births recorded in 2022 and the 3,664,292 in 2021.

This drop in the birth rate is double the average annual decline of 1 percent seen between 2014 and 2019 but is only half of the 4 percent decline observed from 2019 to 2020. The CDC also reported that abortion rates increased by 5 percent in 2021, the year before the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. However, these figures may not fully capture the total number of abortions due to incomplete or absent reporting in some states.

END

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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

The ECB’s Throuple… Or Trouble?

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 11:25 AM

By Bas Van Geffen, senior macro strategist of Rabobank

The accounts of the July ECB meeting noted that September “was widely seen as a good time to re-evaluate” the level of monetary policy restriction. But caution remains the key word. In fact, it appeared six times throughout the accounts of the deliberations. The Governing Council agreed that the triangular relationship between wages, productivity, and profits is key for the inflation outlook – but is it a happy throuple? Yesterday’s data releases brought policymakers some good news, but also some things to worry about.

The latest wage data should encourage the ECB to cut rates again in September. Euro area negotiated wages rose by 3.55% y/y in Q2. That’s a sharp decline from the 4.7% recorded in the first quarter of the year. The deceleration from Q1 is at least partly reflecting the one-off payments that were awarded in Germany at the start of the year. It remains to be seen whether wage pressures ease further: If we look at the underlying trend, i.e., excluding one-off cash payments, collectively agreed wages in Germany have been much more stable around the 4% y/y level.  

The August PMI survey broadly confirmed that wage pressures are gradually fading, but they remain at an elevated level. Input costs “continued to increase markedly,” but eased to the slowest pace this year. It’s particularly notable that the services sector reported the softest pace of input cost increases since April 2021, considering that wages are the largest share of their cost base.

But, absent a sharp increase in labour productivity, the annual growth rate of negotiated wages is still inconsistent with price stability. The ECB expects labour productivity to increase by about 1% in 2025 and 2026. That’s twice the average annual growth rate since 2000! Admittedly, higher demand may give productivity a boost, because it may force idle, hoarded labour to get into gear. Even so, if productivity increases by 1% –as the ECB predicts– and wages are rising by 3.5%, that’s roughly 2.5% inflation. Besides, policymakers acknowledged that this “expected pick-up in productivity […] had yet to appear in the actual data.”

And are profits equally encouraging? Even though purchasing managers reported a slower increase in their input costs, companies undertook bigger price hikes in August. Selling prices rose at the fastest pace in four months, and at an above-average pace. So while the ECB’s rate setters rejoiced that “domestic cost pressures from high wage growth, including in the services sector, had been increasingly buffered by unit profits,” the latest PMI survey suggests that companies may be expanding their margins somewhat again.

Ongoing expansion of profit margins actually has the ECB concerned about the efficacy of its monetary policy. The Governing Council discussed whether its restrictive stance is sufficiently affecting all parts of the economy, and especially the sector that is currently responsible for the strongest inflationary pressures: “the continued growth of profits in the services sector, albeit at lower rates, and the strength of services demand suggested a weaker transmission of monetary policy.”

Such concerns do not scream rapid rate cuts. Yes, another rate cut or two would still leave policy in restrictive territory, but whether it is also restrictive when rates drop to 3% or lower is less clear. Yet, the market continues to price a decent chance of back-to-back rate reductions. That may reflect concerns about the strength of the Eurozone economy: the PMIs did not exactly paint a rosy outlook for activity. However, in an outlook that looks increasingly stagflationary –as some ECB policymakers also concluded– can the ECB really afford to focus on the “stag-” half when the “-flationary” part has exceeded the target for so long? It would certainly require a leap of faith that the slower growth also leads to less demand-pull inflation in the period ahead, and that inflation expectations remain anchored until this happens.

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

That ended quickly

Canadian Labor Minister Puts End To National Railroad Strike, Orders Arbitration

FRIDAY, AUG 23, 2024 – 08:35 AM

Authored by David Lassen via Trains.com,

The Canadian government has moved to end Canada’s freight rail work stoppage – the first to shut down both Canadian National and Canadian Pacific Kansas City simultaneously.

However, while the two railroads say they are preparing to resume operations after Labor Minister Steven MacKinnon sent the dispute to binding arbitration, the Teamsters Canada Rail Conference says it will maintain picket lines while it reviews MacKinnon’s action.

And the CBC reports that MacKinnon’s move might not bring an immediate end to the lockouts of TCRC engineers and conductors that began at the two railroads at 12:01 a.m. today (Aug. 22).

Also locked out were rail traffic controllers at CPKC represented by the same union.

“These collective bargaining negotiations belong to CN Rail, CPKC and TCRC alone — but their effects, and the impacts of the current impasse, are being borne by all Canadians,” MacKinnon said.

“As Minister of Labour, it is my assessment that the parties are at a fundamental impasse. Therefore, it is my duty and responsibility to invoke my authorities under the Canada Labour Code to secure industrial peace and deliver the short and long-term solutions that are in the national interest.”

The existing contracts between the TCRC and both railways will be extended until new agreements are signed. Negotiated agreements are always preferable, MacKinnon said, but the needs of the nation outweighed the need for a contract deal reached at the bargaining table.

“Workers, farmers, commuters and businesses rely on Canada’s railways everyday, and will continue to do so. It is the government’s duty and responsibility to ensure industrial peace in this critically vital sector,” MacKinnon said.

“Thus, we will be examining why we experience repeated conflicts in the railway sector and the conditions that led to the parallel work stoppages we are seeing. Canadians can be assured that their government will not allow them to suffer when parties do not fulfill their responsibility. Especially where their livelihoods, worker safety, and communities are at stake.”

CN said in a statement this evening that it had ended its lockout as of 6 p.m. ET and initiated its recovery plan, acting in advance of a formal order from the Canada Industrial Relations Board “to expedite the recovery of the economy.

“While CN is satisfied that this labour conflict has ended and that it can get back to its role of powering the economy,” the railroad said in its statement, “the company is disappointed that a negotiated deal could not be achieved at the bargaining table despite its best efforts.

CPKC said it is preparing to restart operations and will provide further details about the timing once it receives the CIRB’s order.

“The Canadian government has recognized the immense consequences of a railway work stoppage for the Canadian economy, North American supply chains. and all Canadians,” CPKC CEO Keith Creel said in a statement.

“The government has acted to protect Canada’s national interest. We regret that the government had to intervene because we fundamentally believe in and respect collective bargaining; however, given the stakes for all involved, this situation required action.”

The TCRC said it was keeping picket lines in place while it reviewed MacKinnon’s move, the response by the CIRB, and sought legal counsel.

The union’s president, Paul Boucher, said the government’s action “allowed CN and CPKC to sidestep a union determined to protect rail safety. Despite claiming to value and honour the collective bargaining process, the federal government quickly used its authority to suspend it, mere hours after an employer-imposed work stoppage. … The two major railways in Canada manufactured this crisis, took the country hostage, and manipulated the government to once again disregard the rights afforded to working-class Canadians. “

Boucher called the decision “shameful” and said the government had made the decision “only because they knew their minority could not gather the support needed to pass a legislated resolution to appease the railways.”

Meanwhile, Lisa Raitt, labor minister under former prime minister Stephen Harper, told the CBC that the parties still have to agree to arbitration: “Maybe you can write to the CIRB and ask them to impose binding arbitration … but there’s no way a minister can write a letter and say that everyone goes back to work and I’m sending you to binding arbitration.”
MacKinnon said he is “confident” that his move will end the shutdown, but hedged in saying it would definitely do so, noting that the CIRB is an independent body.

“They have a process that requires consultation with the parties,” he said.

“They will be doing that and rendering a decision, I hope very quickly. … I want to be deferential to the process that will unfold.”

CN and CPKC had both sought arbitration to end the dispute, with MacKinnon last week denying a request from CN to require arbitration. At the time, MacKinnon said it was the “shared responsibility” of CN and the union to negotiate in good faith.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in a post on X.com that while collective bargaining is preferred:

“When that is no longer a foreseeable option — when we are facing serious consequences to our supply chains and the workers who depend on it — governments must act.”

Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez, reacting to MacKinnon’s move, wrote on X.com that the government “is acting to preserve the stability and certainty that our entire economy is renowned for across the world.”

The premiers of two prairie provinces with economies heavily reliant on rail transport — Scott Moe of Saskatchewan and Danielle Smith of Alberta, who had both called for federal action — welcomed the intervention in comments on X.com.

Moe wrote that the government “took the appropriate action … to end the rail stoppage and ensure our Canadian products are moving to market again.”

Smith wrote that she was “pleased to see” that MacKinnon had taken action.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1112 DOWN 0.0004

USA/ YEN 146.06 DOWN 0.149 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES REIGNITES//

GBP/USA 1.3123 UP 0.0027

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3589 DOWN .0015 (CDN DOLLAR UP 15 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 5.60 PTS OR 0.20%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 28.90 PTS OR 0.16%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.11%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 28,90 PTS OR 0.16 %

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 5.60 PTS OR 0.20%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.11%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 153.24 PTS OR 0.40%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2498.55

silver:$29.42

USA dollar index early FRIDAY  morning: 101.36 DOWN 5 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.800%  DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.902%UP 2 AND 2/ 100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.019 DOWN 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.569 DOWN 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2285 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.172 UP .0056 OR 56 basis points

USA/Japan: 145,32 DOWN 0.898 OR YEN IS UP 90 BASIS PTS//ROUND II OF ENDING YEN CARRY TRADE

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.956 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0087 OR 87 BASIS pts  to 1.3514

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.1376 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1229)

TURKISH LIRA:  34,01 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.902

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from THURSDAY at  3.811% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.095 DOWN 4 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.955 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2514,39

SILVER AT 11;00: 29.71

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 39.78 PTS OR 0.48%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 139.71 PTS OR 0.76%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 52.92 PTS OR 0.70%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 121.80 OR 1.09%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 339,24 OR 1.02

WTI Oil price  77,38 12EST/

Brent Oil:  78,80 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  91,50 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  2/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2285 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.956 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.055 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1191 UP 0.0075   OR 75 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3209 UP 0.01128 OR 112 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.9565 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.901

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.20 DOWN 2.007 YEN UP 201 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3513 DOWN 0.0091//CDN dollar UP 91 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 74.91

Brent OIL:  79.01

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS pts to 3.807

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 4.094%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 10 PTS AT  3.913

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.025 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 100.57 DOWN 83 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.99 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  91.50 DOWN 0  AND  1/100 roubles

GOLD  2,510.70 3:30 PM

SILVER: 29.84 3;30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 462.11 PTS OR 1.14%

NASDAQ UP 229.03 PTS OR 2.18 %

VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.02 DOWN 1.72 PTS OR 8.30%

GLD: $232.02 UP 2.65 OR 1.16%

SLV/ $27.20 UP 0.81 OR 3.07%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Powell Pivot Sparks Buying Panic In Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion As Dollar Dumps To 2024 Lows

by Tyler Durden

Saturday, Aug 24, 2024 – 04:00 PM

With seven little words, Fed Chair Powell unleashed some chaos today as he confirmed “time has come for policy to adjust” and rate-cut expectations adjusted dovishly (though we note they were pretty much fully priced for this after the Minutes).

September rate-cut expectations rose to 32bps (so around a 1/3rd chance of 50bps, 2/3 chance of 25bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

2024 rate-cut expectations lifted to 104bps (just over 4 full cuts – well above the single-cut according to The Fed’s Dot-Plot) and 213bps thru the end of 2025…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold, bonds, and stocks rallied while the dollar tumbled…

Source: Bloomberg

The instant bid in stocks only really held in Small Caps…

…thanks to a huge short-squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar crashed to 2024 lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled, led by the short-end today (2Y -10bps, 30Y -2bps) and down 14bps on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield snapped back below 4.00% and the curve (2s30s) pushed notably steeper…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin blasted off on the Powell headlines, setting the scene for the big short-squeeze we have discussed and testing $64,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil prices also surged, bouncing further off those early August lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that five of the six Powell Jackson Hole speeches saw the S&P 500 drop 7.5% on average in the next three months…

Source: Bloomberg

…and The Fed will begin cutting rates with the MSCI All-World Stocks Index at an all-time record high!!!

So brace!

MORNING TRADING/JACKSON HOLE

“Powell Pivot Is Complete”: Gold, Stocks, Bitcoin, & Bonds Surge As Fed Chair Says “Time Has Come For Policy To Adjust”

FRIDAY, AUG 23, 2024 – 09:22 AM

Summary: Powell’s comments confirmed that a September rate cut is coming, as he said “the time has come for policy to adjust”, with traders on the lookout for clarity regarding the magnitude of the cut. Commenting on the speech, WSJ’s Nick “NIkileaks” Timiraos put it best: “The Powell pivot is complete” and notes the following:

Powell is dovish across the board—from the same stage where he two years ago signaled the Fed would accept a recession as the price of restoring inflation:

• “The cooling in labor market conditions is unmistakable.”
• “It seems unlikely that the labor market will be a source of elevated inflationary pressures anytime soon.”
• “We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions.”
• “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”
• “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

Powell unfurls his narrative on the causes of and behaviors of inflation since 2020. Recognizing not everyone will agree with his framing, he concludes with this:

• “That is my assessment of events. Your mileage may vary.”
• After recounting the series of judgments that led officials to describe inflation as likely to be transitory, Powell observes how widely shared these views were outside the Fed:
• “The good ship Transitory was a crowded one.”

On the labor market, the Chair said “We do not seek or welcome further labor market cooling”, which once again shows the importance of the US jobs report on 6th September which will seemingly dictate the size of the move by the Fed. as Timiraos noted earlier in the wake that a report as week as July might lead to a larger than 25bps cut.

Powell continued to note how the Fed’s attention has shifted within its dual mandate, as it stated “the balance of risks to our mandates has changed and upside risks to inflation have diminished, downside risks to employment have increased.”

Lastly, the Chair reiterated data-dependency noting that “timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on data, outlook, balance of risks”.

In reaction, markets saw a broad-based dovish reaction, with upside in Treasuries and stocks alongside downside in the Dollar. Note, Fed money-market pricing was little changed with still 32bps for September and 97bps by year-end.

Watch Powell here:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=zpiMF6bZ0sg%3Fsi%3DlEBOqSGEXNKTD4wS

Tl;dr: Powell confirmed what was in The FOMC Minutes

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said:

“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.”

Labor market fears dominate…

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said, adding that the slowdown in the labor market was “unmistakable.”

Whatever it takes?

“We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability. With an appropriate dialing back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 percent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market. The current level of our policy rate gives us ample room to respond to any risks we may face, including the risk of unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions.“

The Fed chief also acknowledged recent progress on inflation, which has resumed moderating in recent months after stalling earlier in the year:

“My confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2%,” he said

*  *  *

The market was pricing 30bps of cuts in for September ahead of Powell’s speech (and 97bps of cuts for 2024 in total… way more than the 25bps DOTS)…

… and was basically unchanged after his comments…

But, stocks, gold, and bonds are all bid on the headlines (and the dollar dumped)…

Bitcoin is also breaking out, back above $62 as the short squeeze looms…

*  *  *

Powell’s Full Remarks:

https://www.scribd.com/embeds/761876213/content?start_page=1&view_mode=scroll&access_key=key-ypOUuAsJvPjlgHyhLlaN

*  *  *

Earlier…

Jerome Powell Jackson Hole Speech Preview

The Jackson Hole schedule was released last night, announcing Norges Bank Governor Ida Wolden Bache and Bank of Brazil Governor Roberto Campos Neto will join ECB Board Member Philip Lane on the Saturday overview panel. Both Wolden Bache and Campos Neto have recently had to put a heavy emphasis on exchange rate fluctuations when discussing policy transmission. Wolden Bache has pushed back on some efforts to encourage Norges Bank to control the exchange rate more tightly, and argued FX flexibility is essential for a small, open economy. Krone depreciation features prominently in the Bank’s NEMO model, and is a key reason why they have pledged to hold rates steady. Norges has also shown some concern over how differences in housing market structures can impact monetary policy transmission. And recently they revised their estimate of the neutral rate slightly higher, with an emphasis on global factors. Campos Neto also recently discussed structural factors contributing to a high neutral rate in Brazil in a panel discussion at Sintra, many of which have been exacerbated since Covid including subsidized credit, the debt trajectory, and changes in productivity. Panelists typically give brief speeches at the start of the panel before the broader discussion begins.

Chair Powell will deliver his speech on the economic outlook at 10:00am ET, available via webcast. BoE Governor Bailey will be giving the luncheon address at 3:00pm ET. Text of the papers and speeches will be posted to the website at the time each event is scheduled to begin.

Various Fed speakers will also be giving interviews throughout the day—see the table below for a compilation of what has been announced so far, times may not be exact.

Here is the Fed speaker schedule currently set:

• 8am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on CNBC
• 9am: Fed’s Bostic Speaks on Bloomberg Television
• 10am: Fed’s Powell Speaks on Economic Outlook
• 11am: Fed’s Harker Speaks on Bloomberg Television
• 12:30pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on CNBC
• 1:45pm: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks on Fox Business
• 2:15pm: Fed’s Goolsbee on Bloomberg TV

Yesterday, Collins and Harker gave sideline interviews with Bloomberg, CNBC, MNI, and Fox Business. Harker noted that he thinks the Fed “needs to start a process of moving rates down” in September, but that he needs to see a few more weeks of data to determine whether 25bp or 50bp is appropriate. Collins also said she sees it “soon being appropriate to begin easing policy,” and reiterated that “data will tell us what kind of pace makes sense.”  The ECB’s Martins Kazaks also gave an interview yesterday and expressed that he would be “very much open for a discussion of yet another rate cut in September” given recent data.

Goldman’s US economics team expects Chair Powell to express a bit more confidence in the inflation outlook and to put a bit more emphasis on downside risks in the labor market than in his press conference after the July FOMC meeting, in light of the data released since then. A speech along these lines would be consistent with our economists’ forecast of a string of three consecutive 25bp cuts in September, November, and December.

Taking a closer look at what Powell may say today, the focus will be on any hints about the coming Sept rate cut size, whether it is 25 or 50bps. Here are some thoughts on the matter from NewsSquawk:

The gathering of central bankers, academics and policymakers is often looked to for policy’ steer, with focus on any updated assessments on the state of the US economy, and the trajectory of monetary policy. Powell last month said that if inflation and the labor market continued to cool, a rate cut may be appropriate at the September 18th FOMC meeting. For that meeting, money markets are currently pricing around 34bps of rate cuts, which essentially says a 25bps rate reduction is fully expected, with some incremental probability the Fed could go for a larger 50bps cut. The dovish pricing has pared back in recent weeks as inflation continues to cool, and the labor market continues to look resilient amid its slowdown (at one point, markets were fully expecting a 50bps rate reduction a few weeks ago. when growth jitters stoked concerns the Fed may be behind the curve). Powell will also likely be asked about the size of the rate cut. and traders will be watching to see if he leans back on calls for the larger cut (when he was asked about this in July. Powell said it was not something the Fed was thinking about right now). WSJ Fed watcher Nick Timiraos said many officials are ready to start cutting rates by a traditional quarter-percentage-point next month, but are not sure how fast they should go thereafter, adding that labor market data for August could tip the scales in favour of a larger cut if it is as disappointing as July’s readings.

THEMES:

Bank of America says there is a chance Powell could opt for a straightforward update, taking a similar line to which he did in his post-meeting press conference in July: a shift in language from that July message could suggest the committee is nearing, or is dose to. considering easing measures. BofA said. A further signal could be if Powell is stronger in saying that the committee wants to avoid unexpected weakness’ in the labor market, rather than simply responding to it after it occurs.” it wrote. Powell might refer to the June Summary of Economic Projections, which indicated a gradual removal of policy accommodation due to economic uncertainty. “The Fed s definition of achieving a soft landing is bringing inflation back to target without requiring a deterioration in labor market conditions,’’ BofA says. “the battle on inflation isn’t entirely won, but the message could be that it’s been won enough where the emphasis now will be on preventing undesired weakness in the labor market.”

MARKET REACTION:

Meanwhile, analysts at Barclays note some investor concerns about the Fed being ‘behind the curve’, with the balance of risks now tilted towards the employment mandate. Barclays says investors look for more clarity around the new equilibrium policy rate and the path to that rate.

“Crucially, Jackson Hole has become more of a market moving event in recent history,” it writes, “for instance, across assets the average vol-adjustedmove in the 2017-2022 was 1.7x larger vs. the 2010-2016 period.” The bank notes that S&P options currently appear to be fair, as they are pricing a 75bps move, broadly in line with historical pricing (68bps) and average realized moves (72bps). “However, looking at a universe of 35 ETF with liquid options and spanning four asset classes, options on a number of International equity ETFs (EM & EU equity) currently price-in the cheapest moves vs history.

Looking at futures this morning, risk is sharply higher on expectations of a dovish Powell speech, but two years ago, the Fed chair surprised the market by delivering a hawkish speech that sent the S&P 500 tumbling 3.4%, while 10-year yields swung by 8bps intraday.

Finally, a word of caution from BofA’s Michael Hartnett (full note here for pro subs) who reminds us 5 of 6 Powell Jackson Hole speeches saw the S&P 500 drop 7.5% on average in the next 3 months…

…and he asks “Who’s left to buy?” with BofA private client allocation at 62% (Chart 15), and S&P 500 corp cash just 8.8% of assets (Chart 4), often a bearish tip-off

For those looking for more, here is another JHole preview from Rabobank, but here are the key points:

Rabobank’s Fed strategist recently revised his call from one rate cut per quarter to four consecutive cuts starting in September. He believes a (mild) recession is due to begin – if it hasn’t already. Fed Chair Powell could give the starting sign at the Jackson Hole conference today, but he may also give some hints that the market is pricing too aggressive an easing cycle. Of course, there are limitations to the forward guidance Powell can provide, as he does not want to overcommit to any particular outcome in September.

So what room does he have?

• Powell could indicate that he has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%. The FOMC was not yet ready to alter its formal statement in July to include this message, but Powell certainly was willing to at the press conference. The inflation data since then have been encouraging, so Powell could confirm that his confidence in the disinflationary process is improving.
• Meanwhile, Powell could stress the weakness in labour market data as a second – and more urgent – argument for rate cuts. In the July statement, the FOMC already said that it is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
• Finally, the Fed Chair could indicate whether the baseline is a 25bp or 50bp cut. A full set of data will still be released between Powell’s speech and the September meeting, so it would be premature for him to signal the exact size of the forthcoming rate cut. However, he could signal that the Fed is still leaning towards a 25bp reduction, rather than the 50bp that some market participants are still expecting. For example, Powell could stress that he is confident in the stability of markets, and that he does not believe the Fed is behind the curve.

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

New Home Sales Suddenly Soared In July… Prices Jumped As Mortgage Rates Tumbled

FRIDAY, AUG 23, 2024 – 10:34 AM

US new home sales soared by 10.6% MoM in July (the most since Aug 2022), five standard deviations above expectations…

…which pulled sales up 5.6% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

That unexpectedly massive surge pushed new home sales SAAR up to 739k – its highest since May 2023 (just shy of Feb 2022)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that the last three months have seen massive upward revisions for new home sales data (which is very much not the norm of the last few years)…

Source: Bloomberg

…as mortgage rates have tumbled back below 7.00%…

Source: Bloomberg

The pickup in sales allowed builders to make a dent in inventory last month, which fell to the lowest level since the start of the year.

Nonetheless, the 462,000 homes for sale is still near the highest since 2008.

At the current sales rate, that represents 7.5 months of supply, the lowest since September but above pre-pandemic levels.

But  the median price of a new home rose once again (and back higher than used home prices)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and we are sure that Kamala’s new plan to increase homeownership will really help that!

end

III  USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

RFK suspends his bid for the Presidency/supports Trump

Must Watch: RFK Exposes DNC Corruption, Suspends Campaign, Backs Trump In Battleground States

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 03:05 PM

The 2024 presidential election race is about to take its next unexpected turn…

“Democrats have become the party of war, censorship, corruption, big pharma, big tech, big ag, and big money wanting to abandon democracy by canceling the primary to conceal the cognitive decline of the sitting president.

I left the party to run as an independent…

The DNC and its media organs engineered a surge of popularity for VP Harris based upon nothing. No policies, no interviews, no debates. Only smoke and mirrors.”

“A Chicago circus that is based on NOTHING. Who needs a policy if you hate Donald Trump?“

…

“I am simply suspending it and not ending it. My name will remain on the ballot in most states.

I encourage you to vote for me.

In an honest system, I believe that I would have won the election.

After all, the polls consistently showed me beating each of the other candidates.

In about 10 battleground states where my presence would be a spoiler, I’m going to remove my name.”

Must Watch:

https://youtube.com/watch?v=y8jRnvK5W4M%3Fsi%3DHqmKbth4RQSfVVNB

END

Protests, Pandering, Past-Presidents, But No Policies: Summing Up The 2024 DNC In 2 Words – ‘Not Trump’

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Aug 23, 2024 – 07:45 AM

Objectively, if prediction sites can be trusted in any way (perhaps more so than biased polls), the last four days of speeches, musical performances, and delegate celebrations were a ‘failure’ of sorts for the Democratic Party as during the DNC, Kamala Harris odds of success in November dropped while Trump’s improved (though we note the incumbent VP remains a favorite)…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps, ‘we the people’ realized that the goal of the whole week was for party lawmakers, community leaders, past presidents, and cultural figures to convince Americans that Kamala Harris is not Joe Biden… and has not been in The White House for the last almost-four-years… is the not the lowest-approval-rated VP in history… and is not in any way responsible, or tied to any of the policies that left the vast majority of Americans questioning the direction of the country just a week or two before the mainstream media anointed her ‘Mamala’

Most directed pointed attacks at former President Donald Trump, tying his candidacy and campaign to the controversial Project 2025, which Trump has disavowed, while illustrating differences between a potential second Trump term and a Harris White House.

While light on specific domestic and foreign policy discussions, the convention highlighted the Democratic Party’s commitment to ensuring abortion access after the 2022 Dobbs decision overthrew Roe v. Wade.

For four straight days, protesters rallied in the streets against the Biden/Harris administration’s support for Israel during the Israel–Hamas war, pushing for a Palestinian speaker at the Chicago convention.

As Jacob Burg and Nathan Worcester detail below via The Epoch Times, here are the key takeaways from the 2024 Democratic National Convention.

Big Night for Harris

After securing enough delegate support to become the party’s presidential nominee earlier this month, the convention served as a coronation ceremony for Harris and her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.

With a little more than 70 days remaining in the election, Harris is moving fast to define herself, her platform, and her vision for America.

Speaking about her family and their impact on her life, she said it was those who loved and believed in her the most that “told us we could be anything and do anything.”

In her acceptance speech, Harris described her parents meeting at a civil rights gathering and attorneys like Thurgood Marshall and Constance Baker Motley, who inspired her to become a lawyer. When Harris’ best friend revealed sexual abuse by a parent, Harris set out to be a prosecutor.

“And every day in the courtroom, I stood proudly before a judge, and I said five words, ‘Kamala Harris, for the people.’”

She added, “And to be clear, my entire career. I’ve only had one client, the people.”

“On behalf of the people, on behalf of every American, regardless of party, race, gender or the language your grandmother speaks … I accept your nomination to be president of the United States of America,” Harris said.

In a coalition-building effort as her campaign inches closer to election day, Harris vowed to unite a divided country.

“Our nation, with this election, has a precious, fleeting opportunity to move past the bitterness, cynicism, and divisive battles of the past, a chance to chart a new way forward. Not as members of any one party or faction, but as Americans.”

#12 – New Jersey had a man dressed up as a woman announce the delegates. He then forgets what he wants to say as he gets caught up in his pronouns and TDS 🤣

Credit: @libsoftiktok pic.twitter.com/DglxdERmK8

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 23, 2024

3 Presidents Speak

The convention featured speeches from President Joe Biden, former President Barack Obama, and former President Bill Clinton.

Much of Monday evening was dedicated to Biden, with multiple speakers emphasizing their appreciation for the president as delegates and attendees waived signs emblazoning the phrase, “Thank you, Joe.”

Amid chants of “We love Joe,” Biden took the stage Monday night to ceremoniously pass the torch to Harris after he withdrew from the presidential race on July 21 and endorsed her as his successor.

“The ancient Greeks taught us that character is destiny,” Biden said, “selecting Kamala … was the best decision I made my whole career.”

#20 – Joe Biden battles the teleprompter and loses.

“Women are now without electrical… not allowed, excuse me, not without electoral (long pause) or political power.”

(Biden gives up) pic.twitter.com/ArijOYDxsW

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 23, 2024

Obama and Clinton spoke on Tuesday, with the Chicago native and first black president championing Biden, his former second-in-command.

“Looking back, I can say without question that my first big decision as your nominee turned out to be one of my best. And that was asking Joe Biden to serve by my side as vice president,” Obama said.

Clinton also lauded Biden, saying he “did something that’s really hard for a politician to do. He voluntarily gave up political power.”

#5 – Some random state senator says that Trump “could even weaponize the Department of Justice to go after his political opponents!”

Whoopsie: that’s exactly what Kamala Harris and the Democrats have done to President Trump.

Credit: Trump War Roompic.twitter.com/VoD4oLehIE

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 23, 2024

Harris, he added, is committed to public service, quoting the line she said while working at McDonald’s as a teen, “How can I help you?”

Other than Trump, there is only one other living past Republican commander-in-chief, former President George W. Bush. Bush did not speak at the Republican National Convention this year.

Abortion Takes Center Stage

After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 with the Dobbs decision, the Democratic Party has sought to make abortion a primary focus of its campaigning efforts, with states like Florida looking to pass ballot initiatives this year to guarantee access to the procedure.

The convention was no different. EMILY’s List, an organization that works to elect pro-abortion Democrats to political offices, sent their president to speak on Wednesday night. Planned Parenthood set up a mobile clinic near the convention, providing free vasectomies, medication abortions, and emergency contraception by appointment.

On Monday, Hadley Duvall told her story about getting pregnant at age 12 after her stepfather sexually abused her. She said she miscarried the baby and criticized Trump and Republicans for supporting abortion bans, saying, “What is so beautiful about a child having to carry her parent’s child?”

A pro-life Democrat group, Democrats for Life of Florida, criticized the party for supporting abortion.

“Incest, a non-viable fetus, and a physical threat to the mother’s health are part of less than 10 percent of abortions involving dire circumstances,” they wrote in a post on X.

Democrats, including Walz, have argued that Trump would support a federal abortion ban if elected. Speaking with Fox News on Thursday, Trump said he would not support a federal ban but did not leave out state-level prohibitions.

“This is now back in the states where it belongs,” Trump said.

Project 2025

Democrats also sought to link the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 to Trump. The 900-plus-page project was written as a proposed policy guidebook for a future Republican president.

Multiple speakers during the convention used a full-size hardcover edition of the plan as a prop, including Saturday Night Live star Kenan Thompson on Wednesday and Rep. Jason Crow (D-Colo.) on Thursday.

Thompson used the project for a skit where he fielded calls from Americans and discussed ways its proposals could affect their lives. Crow criticized the book directly, including its plans to implement widespread firings across multiple government agencies to replace existing bureaucrats with ones believed to be less committed to policies that Republicans view as progressive.

In an interview with “Fox & Friends” on Thursday, Trump pushed back at Democrats for linking the project to his campaign.

“They know I have nothing to do with it. I had no idea what it was,” Trump said.

Democrats have contended that his campaign is more closely aligned to the project than he suggests. Some, including Walz, have pointed out that Trump’s running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), wrote the foreword to an upcoming primer on the project by Heritage Foundation President Kevin D. Roberts. Paul Dans, director for Project 2025, is a former Trump administration official. He resigned from the Heritage Foundation in July.

The book’s publication date – originally slated for a September release – has been postponed until Nov. 12, a week after the presidential election.

#17 – CNN obliterates the DNC’s fearmongering hoax about Donald Trump and Project 2025 with a devastating fact check.

Credit: @TrumpWarRoompic.twitter.com/Jt5jT4OqF5

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 23, 2024

Pro-Palestinian Protests

Protesters outside the convention mainly focused on the Israel-Hamas war, calling for a cease-fire and a halt to U.S. aid to Israel. While mostly peaceful, protests turned violent on Tuesday evening, with clashes with police outside the Israeli consulate.

Monday’s march from Union Park toward the United Center included a breach of fencing between a park and, across multiple parking lots, the arena where national Democrats had gathered.

Tuesday’s protests outside the Israeli consulate turned chaotic as demonstrators clashed with law enforcement, leading to dozens of arrests, including of many out-of-towners and multiple journalists. During some protests, demonstrators celebrated “intifada.”

What unfolded on Wednesday and Thursday proved much calmer.

The protest on the final night of the DNC had some incidents, like some flag burning under the Lake Street Green Line, and a confrontational man waving a black flag with his face obscured. No arrests were witnessed by The Epoch Times or other media.

As conventioneers left the United Center after Harris’s acceptance speech, they were greeted by a mixture of protesters. Some were part of the pro-Palestinian mix, while others were anti-abortion progressives, alienated from a party increasingly hostile to pro-life voices.

Celebrities Stump for Harris

Promoting this year’s convention were numerous celebrities and cultural figures, including actors, former athletes, musicians, and comedians who spoke or performed onstage for Harris.

Winfrey, in her speech on Wednesday night, called for independents and undecided voters to support Harris.

#16 – Oprah Winfrey says “childless cat lady,” and CNN cuts to a random woman in the crowd who had no idea it was coming.

I didn’t know CNN was that savage! pic.twitter.com/4wNQJdsBdA

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) August 23, 2024

Delegates and attendees heard speeches from Golden State Warriors and Team USA Basketball coach Steve Kerr, actors Eva Longoria and Mindy Kaling, comedians D.L. Hughley and Thompson, and Ana Navarro.

Billy Porter, Patti LaBelle, Common, P!NK, Stevie Wonder, John Legend, and the Chicks performed on the stage at the United Center this week.

Multiple celebrities, including director Spike Lee, rapper Lil Jon, and actors Sean Astin, Wendell Pierce, and Longoria, joined their state delegations on Tuesday for the candidate roll call.

NBA star Steph Curry made a surprise appearance via video on Thursday to endorse Harris.

But No Policy Discussions

With her website still lacking a policy platform, speculation continues over what Harris plans to do in the White House.

Her campaign rallies in the last four weeks have touched on policies including reproductive rights, gun control, housing affordability, middle-class tax cuts, and price gouging bans.

Ameshia Cross, former Obama campaign advisor, told The Epoch Times that Harris has a “very short amount of time” to outline her policies and convince voters to support her.

While gun control and abortion were key topics throughout the 2024 convention, few speakers discussed foreign policy until Panetta and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) made it a focus during their speeches on Thursday.

Panetta said Harris “worked with President Zelenskyy to fight back against Russia. She knows that protecting their democracy protects our democracy as well.”

When Harris took the stage, she blamed Trump for the bipartisan border bill’s failure and pledged to finally sign it into law if elected president. Republicans blocked the bill, saying it did not go far enough to secure the border.

“I will make sure that we lead the world into the future on space and artificial intelligence, that America, not China, wins the competition for the 21st century, and that we strengthen not abdicate our global leadership,” Harris said.

“As president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.”

She also vowed to “take whatever action is necessary to defend our forces and our interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists.”

It’s worth noting that she accepted the nomination without ever facing an unscripted corporate media interview – even with MSM leaning heavily to the left, a clear sign that the Democratic Party has little confidence in her ability to convey policies that resonate with Americans in an unscripted manner.

“I will bring together labor and workers and small business owners and entrepreneurs and American companies to create jobs, to grow our economy, and to lower the cost of everyday needs like health care and housing and groceries,” she said.

She continued, “We will provide access to capital for small business owners and entrepreneurs and founders and protect Social Security and Medicare.”

Then vowed to pass a middle-class tax cut “that will benefit more than 100 million Americans,” pass border security legislation, and safeguard abortion access.

However, low/mid-tier voters, drowning in insurmountable credit card debt, drained personal savings, and struggling to put food on the table, buy fuel at the pump, pay power bills, and shelter costs, are asking where VP Harris has been for the last 3.5 years.

Focus on Trump

Democrats levied significant criticisms against Trump during the convention, characterizing his policies and those of the GOP as hateful and anti-freedom while pushing associations between him and Project 2025 despite his campaign’s efforts to distance itself from the plan’s originator, the Heritage Foundation.

Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump walks along the U.S.–Mexico border south of Sierra Vista, Ariz., on Aug. 22, 2024. Rebecca Noble/Getty Images

Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta chastised Trump’s “America First” foreign policy platform, comparing it to the isolationism touted by many conservatives prior to World War II.

Trump has advocated for a “peace through strength” foreign policy platform that includes getting tough on China and ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

In discussions on abortion, speakers targeted Trump for appointing the conservative-majority Supreme Court that overthrew Roe v. Wade in 2022.

Former Trump White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham said the U.S. Capitol breach spurred her to resign.

On Wednesday, criticizing the breach, retired Capitol Police Sgt. Aquilino Gonell said, “I had seen violence while serving in Iraq, but nothing … nothing prepared me for Jan. 6.” Gonell accused Trump of inciting the events of that day, telling the audience he almost lost his life in the process.

The former president urged his supporters to organize “peacefully and patriotically” after the initial clash began.

Harris took aim at Trump in her speech, criticizing him for Jan. 6, the verdict in his Manhattan criminal trial, his floating the idea of closing the U.S. Department of Education, and the recent Supreme Court ruling that gives presidents presumed immunity for official acts while in office.

As Harris was concluding her remarks, Trump took to his social platform TruthSocial, posting, “Why didn’t she do something about the things of which she complains [as vice president]?”

Democrats who paid money for tickets to the DNC Convention name their favorite Kamala Harris policy pic.twitter.com/OZasXZXxWo

— HOT SPOT (@HotSpotHotSpot) August 22, 2024

Meanwhile, former Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) stated that VP Harris has no reason, politically, to deviate from President Biden’s policies – so buckle the heck up Americans because more reckless government spending and disastrous ‘green’ energy policies are likely coming down the pipe if she is elected.

end

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/BOEING

New Boeing Whistleblower Docs Reveal Confusion And Chaos At Factory That Built Two Doomed 737 MAX Planes

FRIDAY, AUG 23, 2024 – 09:40 AM

New documents released Thursday reveal that ‘confusion and chaos’ reigned in the company’s Renton factory that built two 737 MAX planes that later crashed, killing 346 people in 2018 and 2019, the Seattle Times reports.

According to a prominent whistleblower Ed Pierson, production issues from back then still affect MAX planes flying today. The new documents reveal multiple electrical issues that were discovered as Boeing assembled the Ethiopian Airlines jet that crashed in 2019.

The Times notes that in 2018, the FAA found that employees in another Boeing facility in Everett, WA – where electrical components for integration – had been pushed to move to fast, and produced defective pieces.

Communications between Boeing and Ethiopian Airlines show the plane that later crashed experienced an in-flight safety incident months before the fatal accident. Boeing told the airline that the December 2018 incident was likely the result of an electrical error, the records show.

The whistleblower, Pierson, said the records and the earlier safety incident bolster his view that the deadly crash of the Ethiopian jet may have been initiated by an electrical problem. That problem traces back to production issues with electrical wire bundles that Pierson has highlighted.

Pierson, who worked at Boeing for more than a decade and served as a senior manager coordinating fixes for assembly problems on the 737 program, released the new documents through an advocacy group he formed after the crashes, the Foundation for Aviation Safety – and said that Boeing withheld the documents from regulatory investigators looking into the two deadly crashes.

Following the deadly incidents, he repeatedly alleged that manufacturing defects played a role.

The FAA, NTSB, and international regulators are in disagreement over the cause.

In both crashes, an error with then-new software — the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System or MCAS — caused the plane to nosedive. Boeing recently pleaded guilty to misleading safety regulators about MCAS and how much training pilots would need to fly safely. 

In the case of the Ethiopian crash, the NTSB and its French counterpart concluded that it wasn’t an electrical error but a bird strike damaging a sensor that likely triggered the MCAS software.

The U.S. agency disputed a report from Ethiopian authorities that said the sensor was triggered by “production quality defects.” 

Pierson sent the newly disclosed records to the NTSB, the FAA and the Department of Justice in July, he said. 

Meanwhile, the FAA and NTSB are playing hot potato over the new documents, and have suggested that questions should be directed to Ethiopian authorities.

Boeing, in a statement, said that it “fully cooperated and provided relevant information to the investigation” regarding the Ethiopian Airlines flight 302 crash, adding “We defer to the investigative agencies for further information.”

The new documents also reveal that from communications between Boeing and Ethiopian Airlines, in December 2018, the airline’s 737 MAX experienced an “uncommanded roll”—a situation where the plane rolls unexpectedly, potentially disorienting the pilot and risking loss of control. This incident occurred just weeks after Ethiopian Airlines took delivery of the aircraft, and only a few months before it tragically crashed, killing all onboard.

Boeing’s communication with the airline at the time indicated that the uncommanded roll was likely caused by an electrical fault. The company advised Ethiopian Airlines to inspect the plane’s wiring for issues, raising questions about the broader electrical integrity of the 737 MAX fleet.

Further complicating matters, the Foundation for Aviation Safety released a copy of Boeing’s Shipside Action Tracker from the 2018 production of the ill-fated Ethiopian Airlines plane. This internal database, used by Boeing to document and resolve issues during aircraft assembly, revealed a series of misinstalled and mislabeled electrical components. The records also pointed to significant miscommunication among Boeing employees regarding the work performed on the aircraft.

In a separate but related matter, a 2018 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) investigation into Boeing’s Electrical Systems Responsibility Center in Everett, Washington, uncovered additional issues – which include Boeing management having imposed stringent time limits on employees, potentially leading to defective parts passing through the electrical center without proper inspection. Notably, the report highlighted that some parts had only one minute allocated for pre-inspection.

The investigation also criticized Boeing’s “rework” process—where components are disassembled and fixed before being reassembled—pointing out that this critical step was not always verified by quality assurance teams.

The new report reinforces the confusion and disarray reported at Boeing’s Renton factory following a separate incident in January – in which workers failed to secure a panel properly after removing it for repairs, leading to the panel blowing off a 737 MAX mid-flight at 16,000 feet. Boeing later admitted that it had no documented record of the work and rework performed on the panel.

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

The Tale Of Two Conventions: Gingrich

Thursday, Aug 22, 2024 – 09:45 PM

Authored by Newt Gingrich via RealClearPolicy,

Historians will look at the 2024 Democratic and Republican national conventions as harbingers of profound changes in American politics and government.

Callista and I participated in the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, so we got a good sense of who was there and what was happening in the GOP. When we watched the opening night of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, the contrast between the two was overwhelming.

The Republican National Convention was shaped by the reality of the Trump revolution. President Trump miraculously survived an assassination attempt the Saturday before, and the convention simply added to the sense of drama. After nine years of campaigning (starting with the trip down the Trump Tower escalator in June 2015) Trump steadily gained support across the entire GOP.

Trump’s emergence and dominance changed the fabric of the Republican Party. This was illustrated by who was not in Milwaukee. President George W. Bush and Vice Presidents Dick Cheney, Dan Quayle, and Mike Pence were absent. Former Republican presidential nominee and current Sen. Mitt Romney was missing. Former Speaker Paul Ryan announced that he would write in an alternative candidate rather than vote for President Trump.

The 2024 Republican National Convention was proof of the profound, wrenching shift in the power base of the Republican Party. The old guard was gone, and a new movement was emerging. Importantly, this change had been initiated by Republican voters.

The MAGA movement is the core of the Republican Party. It’s leader, President Trump, is now the central figure in a party which dates to 1854.

Consider the contrast with the Democrats in Chicago.

The leftwing establishment, which traces its dominance of American politics and government back to the election of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, was in full force.

Presidents Joe Biden, Barack Obama, and Bill Clinton were there – along with former Secretary of State and Sen. Hillary Clinton, former Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, Senate Leader Chuck Schumer, and the entire hierarchy of the Democratic Party.

The Republican convention in Milwaukee represented a party reflecting its voters’ wishes. The Democratic Party in Chicago represented a party firmly controlled by its leaders and focused on continuity of power.

Just think about the processes of Democratic presidential nomination in 2020 and 2024.

In 2020, Democrat voters wanted a change from the establishment. There was a real possibility that self-proclaimed Socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders could become the nominee. He was building momentum after a strong race against Hillary Clinton in 2016.

The senior leadership maneuvered to work against Sanders and ensure that Biden would be nominated. This was an amazing considering Biden had come in fifth in Iowa and New Hampshire. Then-House Democratic Whip James Clyburn delivered the Democratic Primary in South Carolina. After that, Biden gained momentum. Suddenly, Biden’s other establishment opponents began to drop out and endorse him. Sanders – and the will of many Democrat voters – were blocked in a beautifully executed campaign behind the scenes by the Party’s bosses.

This year, the Democrats faced a new dilemma. After President Biden fell apart in his June 27 debate with President Trump, the Democratic Party leadership concluded that Biden could not win. The prospect of a second Trump presidency was so horrifying to them they decided to push Biden out.

An amazing pressure campaign was undertaken to force Biden’s withdrawal. It was instigated by the Democratic leadership and executed by their media allies. Day-by-day, new pundits came out calling for Biden to step aside. Various members of Congress followed suit. Finally, it became obvious that Biden was a no-go, and donors started to voice their concerns.

Biden had won 98 percent of the delegates. No serious candidate entered the primaries against him. The party that preached saving democracy had a choice: principled defeat or hypocrisy with a chance to win. The Democratic Party power brokers forced Biden to retire without defeating him in a single caucus or primary. It was an astonishing example of top-down political power.

More impressive than Biden’s ouster was the instantaneous shift to Vice President Kamala Harris. She never won a primary. In 2019, she was such a bad candidate she dropped out before a single vote was cast.

So, in the name of supposedly saving democracy, the Democrats now have a candidate for whom no one voted.

Here’s what this means to voters. The Democrats’ backroom politics guarantee a continuity of the same failed policies that have frustrated Americans and made life harder. They are the same policies which led to the current populist uprising in America.

The Republican Party is listening to people and changing. The Democratic Party is using machine tactics to avoid change and maintain power.

That’s the tale of the two conventions.

For more commentary from Newt Gingrich, visit Gingrich360.com. Also, subscribe to the Newt’s World podcast.

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report August 24, 2024 Issue 7312

Independent View of the News

Today – Powell gives the keynote address at the annual KC Fed Jackson Hole Symposium (10 ET).   With the start of the KC Fed Jackson Hole soiree on Thursday, Fed officials prepped the markets for the rate cut that the market has already priced in.  You can’t make this up! (Boston) Fed’s Collins: will soon be appropriate to cut interest rates https://t.co/NDnpIwCOA2 “I think a gradual, methodical pace once we are in a different policy stance is likely to be appropriate,”…   Fed’s Harker Is Ready to Start Methodical Course of Rate Cuts – Reuters “Barring any surprise in the data we’ll get between now and then; I think we need to start this process… I think a slow, methodical approach down is the right way to go.” https://t.co/tLgwKksMRS   Harker thinks it will take some time to get inflation down to 2%; the end of the easing cycle will take Fed Funds to 3%; Unemployment could rise toward 5%; and the market has already priced in Fed cuts.   Philly Fed President Harker, who has been dovish for about two years, risibly stated, ‘the US job market is softening and normalizing;’ and the 2nd largest negative NFP revision in US history is NOT surprising!    @Mayhem4Markets: Fed Funds Futures pricing in nearly 200 bps of cuts over the next year, which seems quite aggressive and presumes a rather hard landing scenario… https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1826723782712512549   US Economic Data released on ThursdayChicago Fed National Activity for July -0.34, 0.03 Exp., 0.05 PriorInitial Jobless Claims 232k, as expected, 227k PriorContinuing Jobless Claims 1.863m, 1,870m Exp., 1.859m PriorExisting Home Sales for July 3.95m, 3.94m Exp., 3.9m PriorS&P Global US Manufacturing PMI for August 48.0, 49.5 Exp., 49.6 PriorS&P Global Services PMI for August 55.2, 54.0 Exp., 55.0 PriorS&P Global Composite PMI for August 54.1, 53.2 Exp., 54.3 PriorKC Fed Mfg. Activity for August -3. -9 Exp., -13 Prior  S&P US August Prelim Composite PMI Report: https://t.co/wVp2LUt8hz Growth disparities widened further, however, with the service sector expanding at a solid and increased rate while manufacturing output declined at the fastest rate for 14 months.  Employment meanwhile fell as gloomier prospects in manufacturing led to a near-stalling of hiring there, while service sector payroll numbers fell amid hiring difficulties… https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/80e718ea1a5f4b3e9b51bfccf1841bb3   On Thursday, bonds, stocks, and gold declined sharply; the dollar rallied.    After loading up for the Jackson Hole rally, traders sold stuff on Thursday after uber-dove Harker and Collins advocated gradual rate cuts.  Bulls expected a 50bp rate cut in September and more by December.       ESUs traded modestly higher but flat after the lower Nikkei opening until they broke down after 22:00 ET.  After hitting a low of 5631.50 at 23:14 ET, ESUs began a gradual rally that took ESUs to a daily high of 5665.25 at 9:41 ET.  Fed officials signaled a 25bp cut only; the dump began; ESUs cratered.   ESUs sank to 5603.25 at 11:47 ET.  The post-European close rebound took ESUs to 6533.50 at 12:29 ET.  But the Street is very long stuff, especially US debt futures; so, ESUs tumbled to a new low of 5584.75 at 13:54 ET.  Fangs got hammered!  USUs hit a daily low of 123 24/32, -1 20/32 at 13:08 ET.   The afternoon rally took ESUs to 5605.75 at 14:47 ET.  After a dip to 5591.25 at 14:59 ET, the last-hour rally began.  It ended four minutes later with a 13-handle spike.  Selling reappeared; ESUs fell to a new daily low of 5582.75 at 15:57 ET.  The late manipulation pushed ESUs to 5997.25 at 16:00 ET.   Positive aspects of previous session The dollar rallied.   Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered; stocks and bonds declined sharply. Gasoline and oil rallied sharply   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Was the ESU manipulator in the midday thru afternoon rally?  Is another round of yen carry trade unwind looming? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5591.60 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5643.22; 5563.54   @charliebilello: The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 30% over the last 2 years and 8% over the last 5 years… https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih   Texas Democrat Delegate, in town for Democratic convention, gets robbed at gunpoint in downtown Chicago   https://cwbchicago.com/2024/08/texas-delegate-in-town-for-democratic-convention-gets-robbed-at-gunpoint-in-downtown-chicago.html   Wall Street types keep heralding the PredictIt market betting on the Trump-Harris race.  Historically this market has greatly underestimated Trump.  On October 25, 2016, PredictIt had Hillary at 83, DJT 19. https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/1234/Who-will-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election   PBS’ Judy Woodruff apologizes for falsely telling live audience Trump tried to talk Israel out of cease-fire deal (Got caught gaslighting!) https://nypost.com/2024/08/21/media/pbs-judy-woodruff-apologizes-for-falsely-reporting-trump-tried-to-talk-israel-out-of-cease-fire-deal/   Fed Balance Sheet: -$37.74B, US Treas. -$14.95B, Accrued Int. -$16.639B; Reserves at Fed: +$9.448B   Today – The known world expects Powell to utter dovish remarks, including a rate-cut in September guarantee.  However, when two Fed Presidents that have been dovish unexpectedly issued hawkish guidance on the mode of Fed rate cuts, it would be highly unlikely that Powell contradicts them.   If Powell issues remarks in concert with Collins and Harker’s markets, there should be spirited selling.   Expected economic data: July New Home Sales 624k; Powell speaks at 10:00 ET.   NQUs are +67.75; ESUs are 11.50; and USUs are +8/32 at 20:15 ET on buying for Powell’s speech.    S&P Index 50-day MA: 5483; 100-day MA: 5339; 150-day MA: 5245; 200-day MA: 5091 DJIA 50-day MA: 39,777; 100-day MA: 39,264; 150-day MA: 39,101; 200-day MA: 38,410 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5570.65 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5628.97 triggers a buy signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5394.92 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5611.32 triggers a buy signal   Night 3 of the DNC was a replay of the previous two sessions: Virulent Trump hate (314 mentions so far), abject hypocrisy, race baiting, and obvious gaslighting/lies; plus, policies and initiatives avoidance.   Near the end of the 3rd night of the DNC, DJT’s odds to win on PolyMarket increased to a 7-point lead.   @IngrahamAngle: Turns out there may be a sizable convention bump after Chicago—but unfortunately for Dems, it could be for Trump and the GOP! (We mentioned this anomaly after Night 2.)   @JackPosobiec 10:51 PM Wed: Swing internals for Kamala have taken a complete nosedive over the course of the event (DNC), Dillon, Voles, Harrison and Chuck held a crisis meeting earlier, the RFK news hasn’t helped and fighting over whether or not to drop big cash ads attacking him, per WH official   Since FDR, whatever candidate won the Dem nomination would immediately move to the middle.  Since Clinton, the Democratic Party has moved so far left, that it is difficult to move to the center.  This is why Team Obama selected Biden to be their puppet.  They could hide him and win on Joe’s centrist history.    Obama Democrats got too arrogant.  They have turned the 2024 DNC into a leftist gripe and hate fest.  They have relentlessly told Americans how bad things are in the US; and that it is Trump’s fault – even though Dems are in power AND Americans remember that they were much better off under Trump.   Convention speakers have stridently displayed and supported ideals that are FAR out of American norms.  And anyone with a modicum of intelligence sees the hypocrisy of proclaiming ‘Joy’ is Harris’s theme.   Dems, through arrogance emboldened by MSM obeisance, have committed a cardinal political mistake.  In their haste to run on Trump hate, they have gone so negative that it is mitigating Americans’ dislike for Trump.  Polls are clear about Americans’ view of Trump: the majority like his policies but dislike him.   Politics 101 holds that if you go heavily negative, you will turn off some voters.  So, the calculus of going negative is: Can I drive up my opponent’s negatives higher than I drive up my own negatives.  After 9 years of incessant Trump bashing by Dems, RINOs, the media, and the glitterati, how could anything drive up Trump’s negatives further?  Ergo, Dems going viciously negative are mitigating Trump’s negatives with undecided voters and swing voters, namely married women.   @TrumpWarRoom: Speaker at the DNC: “We need to un-f**k our economy.” (And DJT is coarse?) https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1826635826102763909   @PGATUOR: Rickie Fowler was asked if he watched the DNC. He said “Yea…for like 2 minutes. I haven’t seen anything that embarrassing since Jordan blew a 5-stroke lead at the 2016 Masters.”   Because of the negativity of the first 3 nights of the DNC and resultant drop in polling, Dems said Kamala Harris’s speech on Thursday night would be ‘full of joy.’   Slick Willie had the temerity to slam DJT for being self-centered and a liar!  Clinton tried to slam DJT over his age, saying at 78 he was (a few months) younger than Trump – even though Clinton looks older and more ill than Biden or Pelosi!  https://x.com/saras76/status/1826436887143194734   CNN’s @ScottJenningsKY: I still find Bill Clinton’s presence here weird. No reckoning from the party of women for this guy. And the old Blue Dog Democrats are long gone to Trump. https://t.co/1vamX98MMy   @TrumpWarRoom: Slick Willy mispronounces Kamala’s name — which the Fake News has reliably informed us is racist. https://t.co/1HseLq2Ssp   @paulsperry_: Bill Clinton just threw Biden under the bus when he said, “We feel that a load is off our shoulders,” and referred to Kamala as a “breath of fresh air.”   @JackPosobiec: That’s crazy, they got Jeffrey Epstein’s best friend Bill Clinton and Harvey Weinstein’s best friend Oprah on the same night.  (Oprah a featured speaker? Don’t Dems despise billionaires?)   @megynkelly: Of course, Oprah had to mention the racism and misogyny she’s faced … from a country that made her world famous and a mega-billionaire and shown her enormous love and adoration.   Oprah Winfrey sings Kamala’s name and takes ‘childless cat lady’ swipe at J.D. Vance in surprise DNC appearance… but is trolled over letter she wrote Trump – ‘It’s one thing to try and live a life of integrity – still another to have people like yourself notice,’ Winfrey said. ‘Too bad we’re not running for office, what a team!’… https://t.co/Ib8DnZDf6W   @AP: Oprah Winfrey said “there is no American dream” without access to reproductive rights during her DNC speech on Wednesday. (This remark is garnering outrage.)   10 Strict Rules Oprah Makes Her Staff Follow – Lawsuits and controversy come often. Sign an airtight non-disclosure agreement. Oprah likes to keep her private life private. People who work for her are privy to details of the mega-mogul’s life that the general public would never know. To keep her closest secrets confidential, Oprah has one of the best publicity and legal teams in the business. Not surprisingly, while most NDAs are for a limited time, her staff must sign lifetime agreements…    You have to put your job before motherhood… https://www.yourtango.com/entertainment/rules-oprahs-staff-must-follow   Pelosi effusively praised Biden.  Tim Walz again derided Vance for rising from poverty to go to Yale and again told risible whoppers.   Mystery item falls out of Nancy Pelosi’s pants during her DNC speech…and the internet has a wild theory   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13769475/Mystery-item-falls-Nancy-Pelosis-pants-DNC-speech-internet-wild-theory.html   @TrumpWarRoom: WALZ: “If you’re a middle class family… Kamala Harris is gonna cut your taxes.”   https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1826464208982093985   @joelpollak: Tim Walz bashes JD Vance for going to Yale. He followed a long list of Yale/Ivy League speakers and performers: Buttigieg (Harvard), John Legend (Penn), Amy Klobuchar (Yale), Bill Clinton (Yale) … and that’s just a partial list from Wednesday evening.   @TrumpWarRoom: CNN’s @ScottJenningsKY: Something Walz does that’s so weird to me — he attacks JD Vance for going to Yale. I don’t understand this. JD grew up poor and worked hard to get an education… I don’t get what he’s trying to communicate to every small-town, poor kid out there. https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1826471572175028492   @greg_price11: The DNC’s introductory video for Tim Walz once again claimed that he was a Command Sergeant Major in the National Guard which is still not true. https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1826460832957403546   @charliekirk11: (CNN’s) Dana Bash just said the Harris/Walz campaign is tailoring their message to appeal to low-testosterone men by using Doug Emhoff and Tim Walz https://t.co/7kDNx9hqIE   James Carville dismisses critics upset by ‘preachy females’ comment: ‘I don’t care’ – Carville said in March that the Democratic Party’s messaging was ‘too feminine’ to appeal to male voters https://www.foxnews.com/media/james-carville-responds-critics-upset-preachy-females-comment-i-dont-care   @greg_price11L Sen. Chris Murphy says, “For 20 years, Kamala Harris has been tough as nails when it comes to securing our border.” He really said that… with a straight face. (More gaslighting/lying!) https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1826415251379605729   @davidharsanyi on Wednesday night: A few weeks ago, calling Kamala the Border Czar would get you in trouble. According to the DNC speakers tonight, she single-handedly fixed the entire border problem.   @TrumpWarRoom: Amy Klobuchar says Freakish Slob Timothy Walz “turned a team that was 0-27 into state champions.” Freakish Slob Timothy Walz was an ASSISTANT coach. His entire life is a lie.   @DrewHLive: ABC cuts the live feed off as J.D. Vance is talking about welcoming the endorsement of RFK JR.  What are they afraid of?  https://t.co/wsamPH8RCG   @JackPosobiec: Josh Shapiro isn’t doing well at all. He’s so angry. Coming across nasty and sloppy. Worst speech I’ve seen of his. Very different from usual…   @kylenabecker: (MI AG) “I’ve got a message for the Republicans and the Justices of the United States Supreme Court, you can pry this wedding band from my cold, dead, gay hand.” Dems are the party of imaginary oppression. (Turning off more voters!) https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1826501565324107870   @CollinRugg: The Texas sheriff who said Kamala Harris is tough on the border at the DNC previously called her and the Biden administration out for failing to protect the border. How much was this man paid off?  Sheriff Javier Salazar then: “I’m asking for the president or a member of his administration [Kamala] that can make decisions to come down and talk.     I’d like to see somebody from Washington come down here, get boots on the ground, get eyes on the issue at hand…”  Sheriff Javier Salazar now: “Kamala, on the other hand, has been fighting border crime for years. She’s gone down to Mexico and worked to stop the traffickers, and when the traffickers didn’t stop, she put ’em in jail.”  https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1826442976400474257   DNC speaker tied to Farrakhan tells Dems to ‘act right’ until election, then can ‘go back to acting crazy’ – A reverend told his fellow Black Democrats to ‘be good’ at the very least until the election is won https://www.foxnews.com/media/dnc-speaker-tied-farrakhan-tells-dems-act-right-until-election-can-go-back-acting-crazy   @SteveGuest; BOMBSHELL admission in The Washington Post: “Why Democrats are so quiet about climate change right now”  “Democrats see talking about the environment as a lose-lose proposition..  they risk alienating voters in Pennsylvania… https://x.com/SteveGuest/status/1826649317068648524   Kamala Harris’ dream of stopping cops responding to 911 calls resurfaces… and her worrying argument for why the U.S. ‘doesn’t need a law enforcement response’ https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13766309/kamala-harris-defund-police-911-calls.html   More Than 70 Percent of Democrat Voters Don’t Know Kamala’s Policy Positions https://thefederalist.com/2024/08/22/more-than-70-percent-of-democrat-voters-dont-know-kamalas-policy-positions/   @kylenabecker: The Democratic leadership is evil. The radical base is delusional. The average voter is misinformed.   Trump chided Harris for now echoing his call for a hike in the Child Tax Credit after she voted against it in 2017 and 2021!  No wonder Team Obama is having Kamala do the Hidin’ Biden strategy.   @MonicaCrowley: When the DNC brings out Beyoncé as tonight’s “special guest”, just remember that Hillary was hanging out with her right before the 2016 election while Trump was hanging out with the people in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.   Taxpayer-Funded Group Offers $30,000 to New Homebuyers — As Long as They Aren’t US Citizens  https://dailycaller.com/2024/08/21/hacienda-community-development-oregon-non-citizens-down-payments/   @PeterBernegger: EXCLUSIVE: John Ratcliffe, former Director of National Intelligence (for DJT), was briefed in person face to face on Chinese parts being used in ES&S and Dominion Voting systems – before he took that position… he did nothing to stop it.  See quoted tweet here: Chinese made Cradlepoint routers are being used in voting systems here in the USA. A violation of federal law… https://x.com/PeterBernegger/status/1826371036675293673   @GenFlynn: There will be many more revelations coming in the near term about China’s involvement in our election systems….   @CortesSteve: President Trump is refusing intelligence briefings because the Deep State continues to try and sabotage him: “They come in, they give you a briefing and then two days later they leak it and then they say you leaked it. The only way to solve that problem is not to take them.” https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1826646631116407050   @susancrabtree: EXCLUSIVE and BREAKING: Secret Service Agents Placed on Leave After Trump Assassination Attempt — Is Accountability Coming?  Also, sources question if arrests in 2022 of Pakistanis who DUPED Secret Service agents into believing they were DHS Agents and paying for their rent had anything to do with Iranian threats against Trump’s life…   Secret Service Agents Placed on Leave After Trump Assassination Attempt Whistleblowers have come forward to share with RCP what they describe as a corrosive culture of fear, favoritism, uneven disciplinary action, and retribution they say has plagued the agency for years… lowering of hiring standards because of a staffing shortage has led to several embarrassing security breaches and misconduct scandals in recent years, sowing distrust and resentment… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/08/22/secret_service_agents_placed_leave_after_trump_assassination_attempt__151502.html   @bonchieredstate: Judy Woodruff made up a story about Trump trying to stop a Gaza ceasefire and then tried to blame it on Reuters and Axios, neither of which ever reported that.  And she wasn’t immediately pulled off air and continues to offer analysis of the DNC on PBS.  Seems like an issue.

GREG HUNTER

SEE YOU ON MONDAY//