SEPT 5/GOLD CLOSED UP $18.00 TO $2512.90//SILVER WAS UP 55 CENTS TO $28.73//PLATINUM WAS UP $17.95 TO $928.10/PALLAIDUM WAS UP $1.25 TO $943.50//RUSSIA ANNOUNCES ITS ITS GOING TO BUY MORE MUCH PHYSICAL GOLD//ANOTHER GERMAN STABBING//VOLKSWAGEN MAY HAVE TO DDECLARE BANKRUPTCY BECAUSE OF HIGH LABOUR COSTS//ISRAEL VS HAMAS/HEZBOILLAH UPDATES/RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS/SLAY NEWS ETC//USA DATA: ADP WHICH IS GENERALLY QUITE BULLISH ANNOUNCES WEAK PRIVATE WAGE GAINS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
323 C HSBC 2 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 6 661 C JP MORGAN 4 737 C ADVANTAGE 14 2
TOTAL: 14 14 MONTH TO DATE: 2,926
JPMorgan stopped 4/14
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 14 NOTICES FOR 1400 OZ or 0.0435 TONNES
total notices so far: 2926 contracts for 292600 Oz (9.1011 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 247 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 1.235,000
OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4,658 for 23,340,000 oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $18.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $.55 AT THE SLV
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 466.234 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 415 CONTRACTS TO 130,453 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.17 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 32 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING WEDNESDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A FAIR 350 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER STRONG 419 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST 125 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GAIN IN PRICE. ALL OF THE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS DUE TO OUR SPREADER T.A.S. LIQUIDATION.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 419 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.17) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 125 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ,
WE HAD A FAIR 350 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 840,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 23.710 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT ADVANCES TO 23.710 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ GOOD SIZED COMEX OI LOSS //FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 419 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 125 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 DAYS, total 1531 contracts: OR 7.655 MILLION OZ (510 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 7.655 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 7.655 MILLION OZ//
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 318 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 350 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 22.765 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 840,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO 23.710 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A TINY GAIN OF 32 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A FAIR SIZED 350 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (419) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .
WE HAD 247 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 1.235 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 415 OI CONTRACTS TO 510,721 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 481 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (415 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $3.45 IN PRICE/WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAYS GIGANTIC 29,400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON WHERE THESE BOYS TOOK IMMEDIATE DELIVERY OVER IN LONDON ON A T + 1 BASIS.
NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 11.940 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $3.45 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 7346 OI CONTRACTS (22.85 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 7761 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 511,202
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7827 CONTRACTS WITH 415 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 7761 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 7346 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 498 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7761 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE TINY SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 415 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 7827 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT 12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MASSIVE 29,400 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON
//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO: /SEPT 11.940 TONNES.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) TINY SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST GAIN 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 498 CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
AUGUST
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 19,266CONTRACTS OF 1,926,600 OZ OR 59.925 TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6422 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 59.925 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 59.925 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.69% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 59.925 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 475 CONTRACTS OI TO 130,928 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 350 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
SEPT 350 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 350 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 415 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 350 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A TINY SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 125 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.625 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.17 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.04 PTS OR 0.14% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 390.52 OR 1.05%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.38%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0953 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0961/ Oil DOWN TO 68.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.02 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A TINY SIZED 475 CONTRACTS TO 510,721 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.45 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST A FEW IN NUMBER OF /T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS SHORTS TRIED TO, THROUGHOUT THE SESSION, COVER WHAT THEY COULD AT HIGHER PRICES.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 148 TONNES+ OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER CONTAINMENT.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNESDAY’S SMALL GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS WERE CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A MEGA HUGE SIZED 7761 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC7761 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7761 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 7827 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7761 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A TINY LOSS OF 415 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.45/WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE RAIDS ON LAST WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY AND THIS PAST TUESDAY WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE FRBNY AS WE ARE NOW FINISHED WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE OTC/LONDON LBMA BETS ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FED’S HUGE SHORT PREDICAMENT THEY STILL HAVE TIME AND ENERGY TO RAID OUR PRECIOUS METALS. SUCH CROOKS!
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SMALL SIZED 498 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (11.940 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 11.940 TONNES.
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $3.45 ////AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 24.345 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.885 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAY’S E..F.P. JUMP TO LONDON OF A HUGE 29,400 OZ AS THESE BOYS WERE IN IMMEDIATE NEED OF PHYSICAL GOLD AND THUS TOOK DELIVERY ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT REDUCES TO: 11.940 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 11.940 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $3.45
WE HAVE REMOVED 481 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL. THIS IS THE LARGEST ADJUSTMENT TO DATE.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 7346 CONTRACTS OR 734,600 OZ (22.85
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2926 notices 292600 oz 9.1011 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposits
i) Into Brinks 27,701.480 oz
total deposits 27,701.48 oz
withdrawals:2
i) Out of Loomis: 21,509.019 669 kilobars)
ii) Out of JPMorgan 25,823.746
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS 47,332.765 oz 1.47 tonnes
adjustments: 1
JPM: dealer to customer: 85,502.069 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 927 contracts having LOST 479 contracts. We had 185 notices filed on Wednesday so we LOST 294 contracts or 29,400 oz will NOT stand at the comex as these boys were ferried over to London where they are taking immediate delivery of physical gold over there. This is a huge amount of gold and our bankers must be in trouble.
OCTOBER LOST 915 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 42,702 CONTRACTS
NOVEMBER GAINED another 13 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 31
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 446 CONTRACTS TO 410,344.
We had 14 contracts filed for today representing 1400 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 14 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 4 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2926) x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT 927( CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (14x 100 oz per contract( equals 383,900 OZ OR 11.940 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (2926 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT (927 X// , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (14) x 100 oz which equals 383,90 oz (11.940 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 11.940 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total pledged gold: 1,770,778.600 oz 55.078 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,011,410.520 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,425,642.244 ( 230.96 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,585,268.276 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,654,864 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 175.89 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 5/2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE SEPT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
204,947.921 OZ CNT Delaware
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
247 CONTRACT(S) (1.235 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
84 contracts (0.420 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4658 Contracts (23.340 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
total customer deposit nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/306.007 million or 44.08%
adjustment:2
a) dealer to customer ASAHI 603,344.540 oz
b) dealer to customer Brinks: 72,626.190 oz
withdrawals: 2
i) Out of Delaware 1974.756 oz
ii) Out of CNT 202,973.065 oz
total customer withdrawals: 204,947.921 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 77.743 MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.017 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 331 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 89 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 79 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 168 CONTRACTS OR 840,000 OZ
UNDERWENT A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
THERE MUST BE ENOUGH SILVER OVER HERE.
OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER LOSS OF 53 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
NOVEMBER SAW ITS ANOTHER GAIN OF 1 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 9.
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 727 CONTRACTS UP TO 116,167.
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 247 for 1.235 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 49,552 weak
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4658 x 5,000 oz = 23.340 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(331) and the number of notices served upon today 2477 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month: 4658 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (3312)x number of notices served upon today minus (247)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 23.740 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 23.740 million oz.
There are 77,743 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $9.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES
AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 862.74 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.959 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $0.23//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 45,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.880 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 466.243 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Russia is going to buy gold exponentially and sell lots of oil
(Jerusalem post)
Russia to sell lots more oil for gold
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-09-05 09:13 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Tim Zyla Jerusalem Post Wednesday, September 4, 2024
The Russian Finance Ministry announced it will exponentially increase its gold purchases beginning Friday.
— the government will increase its gold purchases from 1.12 billion rubles per day to 8.2 billion rubles per day for the next month.
The report states the finance ministry expects a significant oil and gas revenue of 162 billion rubles in September, a huge jump compared to the 10.9 billion rubles generated in August.
With that money, Russia plans to purchase more gold. …
Stefan Gleason: Blundering miners are dumping every ounce they produce
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-09-04 20:31 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Stefan Gleason Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho Tuesday, September 3, 2024
On an annual basis, global silver supply generated by mines seems to have run into a ceiling of about 1 billion ounces. Supply has essentially flat-lined over the past several years.
At the same time, explosive growth in demand from photovoltaics (solar panels) and electric vehicles is driving widening projected supply deficits for physical silver.
Rising silver prices will, in theory, incentivize more production. But the costs of extraction are rising sharply. …
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/LIVE FROM THE VAULT: TODAY ANDREW MAGUIRE WITH BILL HOLTER
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COPPER
Gloom Surrounds Jeff Currie’s Super-Bull Copper Thesis As China Woes Cap Prices At $9,500
Wednesday, Sep 04, 2024 – 05:20 PM
Veteran commodities analyst Jeff Currie appeared on Bloomberg TV on Tuesday to explain how his bullish thesis for copper, which he called “the most compelling trade I’ve seen in my 30-year career” in mid-May, has been completely derailed or delayed by mounting economic woes in China.
Let’s begin with Currie, who led commodities research at Goldman Sachs for nearly three decades and now serves as the chief strategy officer of the energy pathways team at Carlyle Group, appeared on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots on May 17 to discuss why copper was the best trade he has seen in his entire career.
At the time, when copper was trading at the all-time high of $11,104.50 a ton on the LME, Currie was all googly-eyed about being the biggest copper bull cheerleader:
You know, it is the most compelling trade I have ever seen in my 30 plus years of doing this. You look at the demand story, it’s got green CapEx, it’s got AI, remember AI can’t happen without the energy demand and the constraint on the electricity grid is going to be copper.
And then you have the military demand. So unprecedented demand growth against unprecedented weakness in supply growth because we have not been investing, it’s teed you up for what I would argue is the most bullish commodity that I actually, I just quote many of our clients and other market participants say, you know, it’s the highest conviction trade they’ve ever seen.
Fast-forward 3.5 months, and LME copper is trading just below $9,000 a ton. He joined Bloomberg TV on Tuesday to explain soaring inventories in Asia and a property market downturn in the world’s second-largest economy were some of the key reasons behind copper’s fall from grace.
How did Currie not see the property market downturn 3.5 months ago? Oh, do we have questions for him…
Copper “still has a floor based upon that strong structural supply story, but it has a cap on the upside based upon that weakness in demand,” he said, adding, “I would say $8,500 on the bottom, $9,500 on the top until we start to see the policy begin to create some strength in China.”
Currie top-ticked the copper market in his bull call in May.
Meanwhile, earlier this week, Goldman revealed to clients that it exited its long-term bullish position on the base metal and slashed its 2025 price forecast by nearly $5,000. This seismic shift comes amid overwhelmingly weak economic data from China this summer and elevated levels of refined copper production being exported from the world’s second-largest economy into global markets.
Goldman’s Samantha Dart and Daan Struyven told clients:
“Copper rally delayed. In copper we’ve observed significant price elasticity of both supply and demand this summer. As a result, the sharp copper inventory depletion we had expected will likely come much later than we previously thought.”
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.04 PTS OR 0.14% //Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 390.52 OR 1.05%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.38%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0953 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0961/ Oil DOWN TO 68.40 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.02 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.0953
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0961
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 4.04 PTS OR 0.14 %
HANG SENG CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 390.52 PTS OR 1.05%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.02 EURO RISES TO 1.1106 UP 27 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.880 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143.57…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2320/Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.5721 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.028%
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.249
3j Gold at $2516.00//Silver at: 28.68 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 2 AND 74/ 100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.23
3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143.15/ 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.880 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8462 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9393 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.771 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.071 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.8710 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.00…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.9710 UP 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.039 UP 2 BASIS PTS
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat Ahead Of Key Data As Global Market Rout Eases
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 08:13 AM
After several days of rollercoaster volatility and uniform pain across global equity markets for bulls, US equity futures are flat as the global sell-off stabilizes into the most important macro data releases. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures are up 0.1% and Nasdaq futs are flat, with NVDA +40bps premarket, TSLA rising 2.3% while the balance of Mag7 is weaker and Semis under pressure, too. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index dropped 0.3%, with China-facing luxury stocks such as LVMH again among the biggest losers. Asian equities erased most gains after declines in Hong Kong and Japan. Bond yields are 1bps higher, but the USD is weaker as the yen gained overnight following unexpectedly strong – if transitory – Japanese wage data. Commodities are stronger led by Energy and precious metals while iron ore slumped to its lowest level since 2022 and traded near $90 a ton as China’s main steel industry group advised mills to be cautious in boosting output too quickly to avoid snuffing out a post-summer recovery. Looking at the coming FOMC decision, 50bps bets are increasing, rising as high as 50% after yesterday’s dismal JOLTS report, as the growth component of the Goldilocks narrative is challenged. ISM-Services today and NFP tomorrow are key facets of the narrative and we should leave for the weekend with a stronger sense of 25bps or 50bps.
In premarket trading, Frontier Communications fell 9.9% after agreeing to be purchased in a take under by Verizon Communications. Tesla gained 3% on plans to launch the advanced driver assistance system that it calls Full Self Driving technology in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, pending regulatory approvals. Meanwhile, the company with the luckiest ticker,C3.ai (better known for its AI ticker) was not so lucky, and tumbled 19% to a new 2024 low after the software company reported 1Q subscription revenue that’s weaker than expected. Here are some other premarket movers:
ChargePoint (CHPT) falls 7.7% as the operator of the largest electric vehicle charging network in the US plans to cut 15% of its workforce after missing revenue forecasts.
Copart (CPRT) slips 5.7% after posting 4Q operating income that missed estimates.
Frontier Communications (FYBR) falls 9.9% after agreeing to be purchased by Verizon Communications.
Fortive (FTV) rises 4% after confirming plans to pursue a spinoff of its Precision Technologies segment.
JetBlue (JBLU) rises 5% after boosting its revenue forecast for the third quarter.
PagSeguro (PAGS) and StoneCo (STNE) fall after Morgan Stanley downgraded the Brazilian digital payments companies, saying the market has likely reached saturation. PagSeguro declines 8.5% and StoneCo drops 8.3%.
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) slips 3% after the computer hardware and storage company reported weaker-than-expected margins.
NIO ADRs (NIO) gain 3.5% after the automaker reported 2Q gross margin that came ahead of estimates.
Verint (VRNT) tumbles 11% after the customer-service software firm reported second-quarter profit and revenue that fell short of estimates.
After yesterday’s catastrophic JOLTS report, traders will look to weekly jobless claims data due later today and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls reports to assess whether the US economy is heading for a soft-landing as the Fed prepares to start easing policy. Global stocks suffered their worst losses earlier this week since the Aug. 5 meltdown, with VIX remaining elevated at 20. Swap traders have ramped up bets on the pace of rate cuts after a Wednesday reading on US job openings trailed estimates and the Fed’s Beige Book survey showed flat or declining economic activity. Rates pricing foresees at least 100 basis points of easing this year, including one jumbo cut of 50 basis points.
“We think that the US soft landing scenario is intact but acknowledge that the next two-three months could be a tricky period,” Eddy Loh, chief investment officer at Maybank Group Wealth Management, said on Bloomberg Television. “If the Fed were to cut 50 basis points, the market could perceive it as a negative because that means the Fed is seeing something in the economy.”
The yield on 2-year Treasuries rose 2bps after tumbling Wednesday on the data showing a slowdown in the US labor market and leading to the first 2s10s yield curve disinversion in 27 months. This morning the 2s10s flirted with the unchanged level, and was last 0.4bps.
US interest rates will settle in a range of between 3% and 4%, according to Oaktree Capital Management LP’s Howard Marks.
“The Fed will back off from the emergency rate of five and a quarter, five and a half and get down into the threes,” Marks, the co-chairman and co-founder of Oaktree said at a conference in Melbourne Thursday. “But my point to you, my belief is that we’re going to stay there in the threes and we’re not going back to zero or a half or one.”
European stocks fell to their lowest in around two weeks as global growth concerns continue to dampen investor sentiment ahead of the US jobs report on Friday. The Stoxx 600 was down 0.2%, led by losses in luxury stocks such as LVMH; consumer product, industrial and technology names also slumped. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
Asos shares jump as much as 19%, the most intraday since January 2023, after agreeing to sell control of its Topshop and Topman brands to a company controlled by Denmark’s Holch Povlsen family. The online fashion retailer also announced refinancing moves
BioMerieux gains as much as 5.5% after the French medical technology firm slightly boosted its guidance
Lanxess shares rise as much as 4.4% as the German specialty chemicals firm was double-upgraded by Morgan Stanley, which cited investment de-gearing and lower gas prices
Ashmore rises as much as 4.6%, reversing an earlier decline, as analysts note a more positive outlook for the emerging-markets specialist fund house
Vistry Group shares rise as much as 7.1%, the most since March 14, after the UK housebuilder reported 1H revenue and profit growth following a shift in strategy
Jet2 shares rise as much as 2.1%, reversing losses in earlier trading, as analysts are positive about the trajectory of bookings of the package holiday provider
European luxury stocks slide after Bloomberg reported that LVMH’s Tiffany brand is planning to downsize a flagship store in Shanghai, fueling broader conserns about a slowdown in luxury demand in China. LVMH, Hermes and Kering fell
Grifols Class B shares slumped after a report that Brookfield will seek to pay less for that series of stock in its planned takeover offer for the Spanish blood-plasma company
AB Foods drops as much as 5.8%, the most since April 2023, after the company warned sales growth at Primark was negatively impacted by poor weather conditions
Tomra falls as much as 10%, the most since October 2023, after the Norwegian recycling technology firm published new financial targets
Genus drops as much as 5.1% after the livestock breeding specialist releases its full-year results, with the company only cautiously guiding for improving markets
Earlier in the session, Asian equities erased most gains after declines in Hong Kong and Japan even as key chipmaker shares rebounded from a Wednesday selloff sparked by concerns the artificial intelligence rally is overheating. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.1%, with Nvidia suppliers TSMC and SK Hynix among the biggest boosts. It had added as much as 0.8% earlier in the session before erasing the advance. Taiwan’s Taiex index added 0.5% while Japanese stocks slumped as the yen strengthened. Asian stocks are “seeing flows out of Japan into other markets as hot wage data increases the likelihood of further tightening by the Bank of Japan,” said Matthew Haupt, a portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management. A bigger divergence between the Fed and BOJ may spark “some more volatility,” he added.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.1%. The Norwegian krone tops the G-10 FX leader board, rising 0.3%. The Japanese yen is not far behind, with a 0.2% gain.
In rates, treasuries dip, paring some of Wednesday’s post-JOLTS rally with US 10-year yields rising 1 basis point to 3.76%; the US lags little-changed bunds and gilts during European morning. Yields are higher by 1bp-2bp across the curve with front-end and belly underperforming slightly, leaving 2s10s spread around -0.5bp after disinverting Wednesday for only the second time since 2022. Focal points of US session include weekly jobless claims, August ADP employment change and August ISM services gauge.
In commodities, brent crude futures were heading for the first day of gains in five, with OPEC+ getting closer to an agreement on delaying an increase in oil production. WTI rose 1% to $69.90 while Brent was trading just above $73. Iron ore slumped to its lowest level since 2022 and traded near $90 a ton as China’s main steel industry group advised mills to be cautious in boosting output too quickly to avoid snuffing out a post-summer recovery. Spot gold rises $20 to around $2,516/oz.
Looking at the calendar, US economic data calendar includes August Challenger job cuts (7:30am), ADP employment change (8:15am), 2Q final nonfarm productivity and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), August final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am) and ISM services index (10am). No Fed speakers are scheduled; Williams and Waller are slated to speak Friday
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,534.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 514.22
MXAP up 0.1% to 181.97
MXAPJ up 0.4% to 563.99
Nikkei down 1.1% to 36,657.09
Topix down 0.5% to 2,620.76
Hang Seng Index little changed at 17,444.30
Shanghai Composite up 0.1% to 2,788.31
Sensex down 0.1% to 82,245.54
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.4% to 7,982.38
Kospi down 0.2% to 2,575.50
German 10Y yield unchanged at 2.22%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.1094
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $73.23/bbl
Brent Futures up 0.7% to $73.21/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,513.92
US Dollar Index down 0.16% to 101.20
Top Overnight News
President in absentia Joe Biden is due to speak on economic policy on Thursday 5th September at 16:00 ET
Japan-US business council says they are very alarmed by any attempts to politicise the committee on foreign investments in the US review process, regarding US Steel and Nippon Verizon to acquire Frontier Communications; deal valued at USD 20bln, all-cash
Japan’s wage numbers for July cool vs. June, but come in ahead of expectations (the real wage figure came in at +0.4% for Jul, down from +1.1% in June but above the Street’s -0.6% forecast). RTRS
BOJ official says the central bank must be mindful of avoiding undue market volatility as it proceeds with its tightening agenda. RTRS
China still sees some room to lower the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves, a central bank official said on Thursday, adding that the lender will continue to implement policies to support the economic recovery. RTRS
AstraZeneca staff were detained in China over potential illegal activities involving data collection and drug imports. BBG
Russia has been forced to start storing gas from Vladimir Putin’s flagship Arctic project, in a sign that western sanctions are deterring buyers. According to ship-tracking data and satellite images, three vessels have shipped liquefied natural gas from the Arctic LNG 2, which is under US sanctions, since it started loading operations last month. FT
Hostage killings and irreconcilable demands complicate Gaza cease-fire talks. Frustrated mediators are now putting together what they have described as a “final offer,” but significant concessions on both sides are needed for agreement, said a U.S. official. WaPo
US crude stockpiles slumped by 7.4 million barrels last week, API data is said to show, pushing oil prices higher. That would bring holdings to the lowest in 11 months, if confirmed by the EIA. Crude may benefit further if OPEC+ delays its plan to to boost output. BBG
Rate options traders stepped up wagers that the Fed will start its easing cycle with a 50-bp cut. Oaktree’s Howard Marks said rates will settle in a 3-4% range, but won’t go lower. Rate reductions are needed to keep the labor market healthy, according to the Fed’s Mary Daly. BBG
Auto sales in the US cooled in Aug vs. Jul due to difficult comparisons (Jul was boosted from a recovery from an industry-wide cyberattack) and elevated interest rates. Marketwatch
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the earlier mild regional gains, with the overall market tone tentative ahead of a slew of US data ahead of NFP on Friday. ASX 200 was kept afloat by its Tech and Real Estate sectors whilst Energy resided at the bottom. Nikkei 225 was choppy on either side of 37k as it saw initial pressure amid the stronger JPY, with the index later entirely trimming losses, only to falter once again. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed for most of the session, Hang Seng initially saw modest gains with Banks and Real Estate initially supported following reports China mulls cutting mortgage rates in two steps to shield banks, via Bloomberg sources. That being said, the mood later waned despite a lack of catalysts, although pre-market reports suggested JPMorgan cut China stocks to Neutral from Overweight.
Top Asian news
PBoC official says there is still some room for cutting the RRR. Face some constraints in further cutting deposit/lending rates. Will reasonably set the strength and pace of policy adjustments based on the economic recovery.
JPMorgan cut China stocks to Neutral from Overweight.
PBoC injected CNY 63.3bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at maintained rate of 1.70%
BoJ Board Member Takata said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, though some weak signs are evident; notes significant volatility in stock and FX markets but maintains that achieving the inflation target remains within reach, and BoJ must be vigilant to the chance of renewed wave of price hikes, while taking into account impact of yen rise in early August, according to Reuters. He noted it is hard to debate at this stage to what degree BoJ can shrink its balance sheet, and hard to pin down the precise level of Japan’s natural rate of interest. He said Japan’s current real interest rate is below the estimated natural rate of interest, which means monetary conditions remain accommodative and the fallout from market turbulence in early August remains, “so we must scrutinize the impact for the time being”. He noted the BoJ must adjust monetary conditions by ‘another gear’ if we can confirm that firms will continue to increase capex, wages and prices, and won’t hike policy rates with a pre-set level of neutral interest rate in mind. BoJ’s decision to reduce bond buying won’t hugely affect the impact of monetary easing, but marks a big turning point from when the central bank had YCC in place, and markets stabilizing after some turbulence, but must watch market developments with a very strong sense of urgency.
BoJ to hold meeting on market operations on October 16th from 17:30 local time, according to Reuters.
RBA Governor Bullock repeated that it is premature to be thinking about rate cuts; as of now, the board does not expect to be in a position to cut rates in the near term. She noted the RBA’s highest priority has been and remains to bring inflation down, and the Board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation, whilst the RBA’s full employment goal is not served by letting inflation stay above target indefinitely. She noted substantial uncertainty around the central outlook, with risks on both sides and if circumstances change, the board will respond accordingly. Bullock said the labour market remains relatively tight, expected to ease gradually, and labour cost growth is strong reflecting wage increases, and weak productivity. She warned key drivers of elevated inflation are housing costs, market services, and CPI rents inflation is likely to be high for some time. Bullock said need to see results on inflation before lowering rates; board is not going to focus on one inflation number, and slightly elevated AUD is positive for inflation fight.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C) began the session entirely in the red, but sentiment improved soon after the cash open, with indices now displaying more of a mixed picture. European sectors are mixed, having opened with a negative bias. Utilities takes the top spot, alongside Real Estate whilst Consumer Products lags. US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are mixed, but with sentiment seemingly stabilising after this week’s glum price action. Today’s docket is packed with key US data; jobs (Challenger Layoffs, ADP, IJC), activity (PMIs, ISM Services).
Top European news
ASML (ASML NA) CEO repeated 2024 and 2025 guidance and said the chip market recovery is uneven.
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data August 2024; inflation expectations 1-yr 2.7% (prev. 2.7%); 3-yr 2.7% (prev. 2.7%)
FX
DXY is slightly lower and trading within a narrow 101.14-35 range and towards the bottom end of the prior day’s confines. A busy US data slate ahead; US Challenger Layoffs kicks things off, ahead of ADP Employment, IJC, PMI (F) and the key ISM Services data
EUR is incrementally firmer and trading towards the upper end of today’s 1.1076-1.11 range. Today’s much stronger-than-expected Industrials Orders sparked modest strength in the Single-Currency, whilst EZ Construction PMIs passed through without having an impact.
GBP is trading on a slightly firmer footing and near today’s high at 1.3172; UK-specific newsflow light.
JPY is slightly firmer, having pared most of its early morning strength, largely a factor of a more improved risk-tone vs the prior 2 sessions. Overnight strength was also a factor of a higher-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings print.
Antipodeans are flat/firmer, in what has been a lacklustre session for the pair thus far.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0989 vs exp. 7.1010 (prev. 7.1148); strongest level since Apr 15th
Reuters Poll, FX: bullish bets have increased for most Asian FX.
Fixed Income
USTs are flat ahead of a packed and potentially pivotal afternoon agenda. From which, the labour market data points will take centre stage and be scrutinised in the context of Friday’s Payrolls. USTs are just off Wednesday’s JOLTS-driven highs at 114-18.
Bunds ultimately trade lower, but with price action choppy. Modest two-way action was seen on the latest German Industrial Orders, which came in significantly above forecasts. Bunds are yet to make much headway above the 134.00 mark, current high at 134.26.
Gilts are slightly firmer, but ultimately rangebound ahead of the busy data docket. A strong UK auction had little impact on the benchmark. Gilts are holding just above Wednesday’s 99.53 high.
OATs were weighed on by a hefty supply docket from both France and Spain; both passed without any real reaction.
France sells EUR 11.99bln vs exp. 10-12bln 3.0% 2034, 1.25% 2036, 0.5% 2040 and 3.25% 2055 OATs:
Commodities
Crude is firmer, having found a bit of a floor from the marked declines WTD. A slight recovery was assisted by the private inventory report last night. Brent’Nov as high as USD 73.46/bbl.
Spot gold is back above USD 2500/oz, benefitting from pressure in the USD and the relatively contained yield environment/risk tone in western markets; notable, further support stemming from China where yields are pressured by RRR talk from the PBoC.
Base metals are benefitting from the steady risk tone and softer USD. Though, as with precious peers, it remains to be seen what the macro backdrop will be following the afternoon’s US data deluge.
Russian President Putin on expiration of deal on Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine after Dec 31 2024, “we do reject this transit, seek to maintain gas supply contracts, if Ukraine ditches this transit we cannot force it to keep it”
UAE’s ADNOC sets the October Murban OSP at USD 77.94/bbl.
Geopolitics
White House reportedly scrambling to put forward a new Israel-Hamas proposal; draft accord could come next week or sooner; there is a strong perception that a ceasefire is slipping away, according to Reuters sources.
US Event Calendar
07:30: Aug. Challenger Job Cuts YoY 1.0%, prior 9.2%
08:15: Aug. ADP Employment Change, est. 145,000, prior 122,000
08:30: 2Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 0.8%, prior 0.9%
2Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.5%, prior 2.3%
08:30: Aug. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230,000, prior 231,000
Aug. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.87m
09:45: Aug. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.1, prior 55.2
09:45: Aug. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 54.0, prior 54.1
10:00: Aug. ISM Services New Orders, est. 51.9, prior 52.4
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
A cloud has lifted over our house as the kids were all back to school yesterday after a long and feral summer. To be fair Maisie is a wonderful girl and the twins are good boys individually. However together at home the twins are never more than 20 minutes away from a fight, bruises, scratches, and manic tears. 2 minutes later it’s high pitched laughter and co-scheming. Repeat to fade. It is draining. At school they all behave impeccably so I’m lobbying for it to become a boarding school asap.
Clouds continue over markets though with global bond yields continuing to tumble yesterday, as another batch of weak US data fuelled expectations that the Fed might cut rates by 50bps in just under two weeks. That led to some very significant market moves, with the 2s10s curve ending the day around the zero level for the first time in the last 2 years. We briefly traded in positive territory yesterday but haven’t closed above zero since July 2022. This is the longest ever inversion for the 2s10s curve in available data stretching back well over 60 years. Given that inversions have historically been a leading indicator of recessions, the re-steepening has previously led to suggestions that removing such an environment means a recession would now be less likely to happen. But sadly, the historic precedent isn’t particularly favourable on this front, as in previous cycles the final stage before the recession was actually a re-steepening of the curve back into positive territory. So we have to be cautious in being too optimistic about waving bye to an inversion. Henry wrote about this pattern last year, with a few charts on how this played out in previous cycles (link here).
The trigger for yesterday’s moves was the latest US JOLTS report of job openings, which showed that the labour market was weakening faster than previously thought. For instance, the number of job openings fell to a three-and-a-half year low of 7.673m in July (vs. 8.1m expected). And if you look at the ratio of job openings per unemployed individuals, that also fell back to 1.07, which is now beneath its pre-Covid levels in 2019. So there’s growing evidence that the labour market is still weakening, backing up Chair Powell’s point at Jackson Hole that “labor market conditions are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019”.
To be fair, it wasn’t all bad news from the report. The hires rate ticked back up to 3.5% in July, and the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their jobs also rose to 2.1%. Moreover, we should bear in mind that this is still covering July, the same month as with the underwhelming jobs report a month ago, rather than a new period since then. So all eyes will remain on tomorrow’s jobs report for August to see if that deterioration continues, or whether the weaker July numbers look like more of a blip. Ahead of that today’s services ISM will take on added significance given the nerves around at the moment.
After the JOLTS report, investors dialled up the chance that the Fed would cut by 50bps in September, and futures were giving that a 44% chance by the close (up +7pps). That’s the highest probability on 50bps since August 13 and is now back close to a 50-50 call. Investors also moved to price in a more dovish rates path over the months ahead as well. For example, there are now 111bps of cuts priced in by the December meeting, up from 102bps the previous day.
With more rapid cuts being priced in, US Treasury yields fell across the curve, and the 2yr yield (-10.9bps) fell to 3.76%, which is its lowest closing level since September 2022. The 10yr yield (-7.6ps) also fell to 3.76% also, which is its lowest close since July 2023 and marks the first time since July 2022 that the 2s10s slope has uninverted. Breakevens led the decline in yields with the 10yr (-5.2bps) ending the day at 2.06%, less than 1bp above its early August lows and otherwise its lowest level since January 2021. Over in Europe it was much the same story as well, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.3bps), OATs (-6.7bps) and BTPs (-8.8bps) all falling back.
Alongside the JOLTS report, a few other factors supported that move to price in faster rate cuts. The first was the continued fall in oil prices, which is taking away one source of inflationary pressure. Indeed, yesterday saw Brent crude oil prices (-1.42%) fall for the fourth day in a row to $72.70/bbl, which is their lowest level since June 2023. This decline came even as Reuters reported that OPEC+ was close to agreeing a delay to the increase in oil production planned for October. The second came from the Bank of Canada, who cut rates by 25bps for a third consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. Significantly, Governor Macklem also said that “if we need to take a bigger step, we will take a bigger step.” So there was an explicit acknowledgement that such an outcome was possible. Last but not least, the Fed’s Beige Book review of regional economic conditions added to the dovish mood, as 9 of the 12 regional Fed districts “reported flat or declining activity”.
Against this backdrop, US equities held up relatively well, with the S&P 500 posting a modest -0.16% decline. In part, that was driven by the hope that the Fed would now deliver a larger 50bp cut. But unlike the original jobs report, the news from the JOLTS report didn’t lead to a sudden reassessment on how the economy was doing, given it was covering July anyway, where we’ve already got plenty of data for. Indeed, with the other data releases yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate actually ticked up slightly to an annualised +2.1% rate for Q3. So with those various releases in hand, US equities held broadly steady. Energy (-1.42%) and information technology (-0.48%) stocks led the decline for the S&P 500, but its downside was limited by gains for defensive and rate sensitive sectors, notably utilities (+0.85%) and consumer staples (+0.52%). The Magnificent 7 were flat on the day (-0.00%), even as Nvidia (-1.66%) again declined after seeing the largest market cap fall of any global stock in history the previous day.
Over in Europe, the picture was quite a bit more negative, but that mostly reflected a catchup to the slump later in the US session the previous day. That was evident by the STOXX 600 immediately falling lower after the open, but basically staying around that range for the rest of the day, closing -0.97% lower. Even so, that’s still a third consecutive decline for the STOXX 600, so that’s another index where September is living up to its reputation as a poor one for equities. Sentiment wasn’t exactly helped by the final August PMIs either, as the final composite PMI for the Euro Area was revised down two-tenths from the flash reading to 51.0.
Asian equity markets are maintaining the risk-off start to the month with the Nikkei (-1.22%), Hang Seng (-0.45%) and KOSPI (-0.36%) also lower. Elsewhere, mainland Chinese stocks have held on to their minor gains with the CSI (+0.10%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.04%) both trading in the green. S&P (-0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.28%) futures are both slipping.
Early morning data showed that Japan’s real wages in July unexpectedly rose +0.4% y/y (v/s -0.6% expected), advancing for the second consecutive month, boosted by pay hikes and summer bonuses. It followed a +1.1% gain in June, the first gain in 27 months. Nominal wages grew by +3.6% y/y in July, a deceleration from June’s +4.5% but surpassing market expectations of +2.9% gain. This strong performance is adding to speculation that the BOJ may look to hike again before the end of 2024 and perhaps helps explain the weak performance of Japanese equities overnight.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services index for August, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for August, and the weekly initial jobless claims. Meanwhile in Europe, there’s German factory orders for July, Euro Area retail sales for July, and the August construction PMIs from Germany and the UK. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Holzmann.
2B) European report
Tentative price action ahead of today’s US data deluge including ADP Employment & ISM Services – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 06:24 AM
European equities are mixed; US futures trade tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark
Dollar is slightly lower, JPY once again on a firmer footing, EUR saw modest strength on strong German Industrial Orders
USTs are flat ahead of today’s US data deluge, Bunds edge lower
Crude is firmer, XAU benefits from the softer Dollar and base metals are mixed
Looking ahead, US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, IJC, ISM Services
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C) began the session entirely in the red, but sentiment improved soon after the cash open, with indices now displaying more of a mixed picture.
European sectors are mixed, having opened with a negative bias. Utilities takes the top spot, alongside Real Estate whilst Consumer Products lags.
US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are mixed, but with sentiment seemingly stabilising after this week’s glum price action. Today’s docket is packed with key US data; jobs (Challenger Layoffs, ADP, IJC), activity (PMIs, ISM Services).
DXY is slightly lower and trading within a narrow 101.14-35 range and towards the bottom end of the prior day’s confines. A busy US data slate ahead; US Challenger Layoffs kicks things off, ahead of ADP Employment, IJC, PMI (F) and the key ISM Services data
EUR is incrementally firmer and trading towards the upper end of today’s 1.1076-1.11 range. Today’s much stronger-than-expected Industrials Orders sparked modest strength in the Single-Currency, whilst EZ Construction PMIs passed through without having an impact.
GBP is trading on a slightly firmer footing and near today’s high at 1.3172; UK-specific newsflow light.
JPY is slightly firmer, having pared most of its early morning strength, largely a factor of a more improved risk-tone vs the prior 2 sessions. Overnight strength was also a factor of a higher-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings print.
Antipodeans are flat/firmer, in what has been a lacklustre session for the pair thus far.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0989 vs exp. 7.1010 (prev. 7.1148); strongest level since Apr 15th
Reuters Poll, FX: bullish bets have increased for most Asian FX.
USTs are flat ahead of a packed and potentially pivotal afternoon agenda. From which, the labour market data points will take centre stage and be scrutinised in the context of Friday’s Payrolls. USTs are just off Wednesday’s JOLTS-driven highs at 114-18.
Bunds ultimately trade lower, but with price action choppy. Modest two-way action was seen on the latest German Industrial Orders, which came in significantly above forecasts. Bunds are yet to make much headway above the 134.00 mark, current high at 134.26.
Gilts are slightly firmer, but ultimately rangebound ahead of the busy data docket. A strong UK auction had little impact on the benchmark. Gilts are holding just above Wednesday’s 99.53 high.
OATs were weighed on by a hefty supply docket from both France and Spain; both passed without any real reaction.
Crude is firmer, having found a bit of a floor from the marked declines WTD. A slight recovery was assisted by the private inventory report last night. Brent’Nov as high as USD 73.46/bbl.
Spot gold is back above USD 2500/oz, benefitting from pressure in the USD and the relatively contained yield environment/risk tone in western markets; notable, further support stemming from China where yields are pressured by RRR talk from the PBoC.
Base metals are benefitting from the steady risk tone and softer USD. Though, as with precious peers, it remains to be seen what the macro backdrop will be following the afternoon’s US data deluge.
Russian President Putin on expiration of deal on Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine after Dec 31 2024, “we do reject this transit, seek to maintain gas supply contracts, if Ukraine ditches this transit we cannot force it to keep it”
UAE’s ADNOC sets the October Murban OSP at USD 77.94/bbl.
German Industrial Orders MM (Jul) 2.9% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. 3.9%)
EU HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 41.4 (Prev. 41.4); Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 46.6 (Prev. 45.0); French HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 40.1 (Prev. 39.7); German HCOB Construction PMI (Aug) 38.9 (Prev. 40.0)
UK S&P Global Construction PMI (Aug) 53.6 vs. Exp. 54.9 (Prev. 55.3)
EU Retail Sales MM(Jul) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. -0.4%); Retail Sales YY (Jul) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.3%, Rev. -0.4%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ASML (ASML NA) CEO repeated 2024 and 2025 guidance and said the chip market recovery is uneven.
BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data August 2024; inflation expectations 1-yr 2.7% (prev. 2.7%); 3-yr 2.7% (prev. 2.7%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President Biden is due to speak on economic policy on Thursday 5th September at 16:00 ET/ 21:00 BST.
Japan-US business council says they are very alarmed by any attempts to politicise the committee on foreign investments in the US review process, regarding US Steel (X) and Nippon (5401 JT)
Verizon (VZ) to acquire Frontier Communications (FYBR); deal valued at USD 20bln, all-cash
GEOPOLITICS
White House reportedly scrambling to put forward a new Israel-Hamas proposal; draft accord could come next week or sooner; there is a strong perception that a ceasefire is slipping away, according to Reuters sources.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continues to dip lower, this time beneath USD 57k; Ethereum goes as low as USD 2.4k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the earlier mild regional gains, with the overall market tone tentative ahead of a slew of US data ahead of NFP on Friday.
ASX 200 was kept afloat by its Tech and Real Estate sectors whilst Energy resided at the bottom.
Nikkei 225 was choppy on either side of 37k as it saw initial pressure amid the stronger JPY, with the index later entirely trimming losses, only to falter once again.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed for most of the session, Hang Seng initially saw modest gains with Banks and Real Estate initially supported following reports China mulls cutting mortgage rates in two steps to shield banks, via Bloomberg sources. That being said, the mood later waned despite a lack of catalysts, although pre-market reports suggested JPMorgan cut China stocks to Neutral from Overweight.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC official says there is still some room for cutting the RRR. Face some constraints in further cutting deposit/lending rates. Will reasonably set the strength and pace of policy adjustments based on the economic recovery.
JPMorgan cut China stocks to Neutral from Overweight.
PBoC injected CNY 63.3bln via 7-day Reverse Repo at maintained rate of 1.70%
BoJ Board Member Takata said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, though some weak signs are evident; notes significant volatility in stock and FX markets but maintains that achieving the inflation target remains within reach, and BoJ must be vigilant to the chance of renewed wave of price hikes, while taking into account impact of yen rise in early August, according to Reuters. He noted it is hard to debate at this stage to what degree BoJ can shrink its balance sheet, and hard to pin down the precise level of Japan’s natural rate of interest. He said Japan’s current real interest rate is below the estimated natural rate of interest, which means monetary conditions remain accommodative and the fallout from market turbulence in early August remains, “so we must scrutinize the impact for the time being”. He noted the BoJ must adjust monetary conditions by ‘another gear’ if we can confirm that firms will continue to increase capex, wages and prices, and won’t hike policy rates with a pre-set level of neutral interest rate in mind. BoJ’s decision to reduce bond buying won’t hugely affect the impact of monetary easing, but marks a big turning point from when the central bank had YCC in place, and markets stabilizing after some turbulence, but must watch market developments with a very strong sense of urgency.
BoJ to hold meeting on market operations on October 16th from 17:30 local time, according to Reuters.
RBA Governor Bullock repeated that it is premature to be thinking about rate cuts; as of now, the board does not expect to be in a position to cut rates in the near term. She noted the RBA’s highest priority has been and remains to bring inflation down, and the Board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation, whilst the RBA’s full employment goal is not served by letting inflation stay above target indefinitely. She noted substantial uncertainty around the central outlook, with risks on both sides and if circumstances change, the board will respond accordingly. Bullock said the labour market remains relatively tight, expected to ease gradually, and labour cost growth is strong reflecting wage increases, and weak productivity. She warned key drivers of elevated inflation are housing costs, market services, and CPI rents inflation is likely to be high for some time. Bullock said need to see results on inflation before lowering rates; board is not going to focus on one inflation number, and slightly elevated AUD is positive for inflation fight.
Japanese Foreign Bond Investment w/e 1.6405T (Prev. 1.543T, Rev. 1.556T)
South Korea GDP Growth QQ Revised (Q2) -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
South Korea GDP Growth YY Revised (Q2) 2.3% (Prev. 2.3%)
2C) ASIAN REPORT
APAC stocks were mixed, JPY firmer and Bonds continue to edge higher – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 01:45 AM
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the earlier mild regional gains, with the overall market tone tentative ahead of a slew of US data ahead of NFP on Friday.
USD/JPY initially fell amid higher-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings; Yuan strengthened on the PBOC fixing; G10s were largely uneventful.
10-year UST futures held an upward bias in continuation of Wednesday’s Wall Street session, after the bull steepening seen following the dovish July JOLTS data.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat/softer open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after cash closed -1.3% on Wednesday
Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, EZ Construction PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, IJC, ISM Services, BoE Decision Maker Panel; Fed’s Beige Book, supply from Spain, France, UK, US, and Earnings
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were ultimately lower on Wednesday, albeit not to the same extent as Tuesday’s session. Losses were widespread, with Energy, Materials and Tech underperforming.
SPX -0.16% AT 5,520, NDX -0.20% at 18,921, DJIA +0.09% at 40,974, RUT -0.34% at 2,141
US VP Harris is to reportedly pare back Biden’s capital-gains tax proposal, according to WSJ; Democratic Presidential candidate Harris said if you earn USD 1mln or more your capital gains tax rate will be 28%.
US President Biden is due to speak on economic policy on Thursday 5th September at 16:00 ET/ 21:00 BST.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow (Q3 24): 2.1% (prev. 2.0%).
Leader of Canada’s opposition New Democrats is tearing up a deal that is helping keep Trudeau’s liberal government in power; announcement by new Democrats means if Trudeau is to continue governing, he will need to find support from other opposition legislators.
NOTABLE EQUITY-SPECIFIC NEWS
NVIDIA (NVDA) said they have not been subpoenaed by DoJ, according to Bloomberg.
Verizon (VZ) reportedly in advanced talks to acquire Frontier Communications (FYBR) in a deal that would bolster the company’s fibre network to compete with rivals including AT&T (T), according to WSJ citing sources.
US President Biden reportedly prepares to block the Nippon Steel (5401 JT) acquisition of US Steel (X), according to WaPo citing sources. Biden administration reportedly told Nippon Steel (5401 JT) on Saturday that Nippon’s acquisition of US Steel (X) would pose a national security risk by harming the American steel industry, according to Reuters sources
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks eventually traded mixed following the earlier mild regional gains, with the overall market tone tentative ahead of a slew of US data ahead of NFP on Friday.
ASX 200 was kept afloat by its Tech and Real Estate sectors whilst Energy resided at the bottom.
Nikkei 225 was choppy on either side of 37k as it saw initial pressure amid the stronger JPY, with the index later entirely trimming losses, only to falter once again.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed for most of the session, Hang Seng initially saw modest gains with Banks and Real Estate initially supported following reports China mulls cutting mortgage rates in two steps to shield banks, via Bloomberg sources. That being said, the mood later waned despite a lack of catalysts, although pre-market reports suggested JPMorgan cut China stocks to Neutral from Overweight.
US equity futures traded between modest gains and losses with futures overall indecisive ahead of more US data.
European equity futures are indicative of a flat/softer open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures -0.1% after cash closed -1.3% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY was unchanged within a narrow 101.23-34 range and yesterday’s 101.24-74 parameter with price action minimal amid a lack of catalysts. DXY saw no major move on commentary from Fed’s Daly.
EUR/USD saw sideways trade in tandem with an uneventful USD with the pair towards the top end of yesterday’s 1.1037-94 parameter.
GBP/USD was trading on either side of 1.3150 in a 1.3142-56 parameter and inside Tuesday’s 1.3097-1.3175 range.
USD/JPY initially fell as participants reacted to the JPY strength seen in Western sessions alongside higher-than-expected Labour Cash Earnings, with USD/JPY reaching a low of 143.17 before coming off worst levels vs yesterday’s 143.70-145.56 range. JPY saw no move to commentary from BoJ Board Member Takata.
Antipodeans were both flat and trading sideways amid the lukewarm tone across the summer markets in the run-up to the next catalysts. AUD saw no move on reiterations from RBA Governor Bullock.
Yuan saw gains after the PBoC’s stronger-than-expected CNY fix, which was at the strongest level since mid-April.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0989 vs exp. 7.1010 (prev. 7.1148); strongest level since Apr 15th
FIXED INCOME
10-year UST futures held an upward bias in continuation of Wednesday’s Wall Street session, after the bull steepening seen following the dovish July JOLTS data.
Bund futures were relatively flat and hovering above 134.50 throughout the APAC session in a 134.57-69 range.
10yr JGB futures conforming to the tone set by Western counterparts in the Wednesday sessions but with price action rather horizontal in recent trade, with little reaction to BoJ’s Takata. A tepid 30-year JGB auction prompted very little action.
Japan sold JPY 0.9tln 30-yr JGB; b/c 3.40x (prev. 3.47x), and average yield 2.043% (prev. 2.229%).
COMMODITIES
Crude futures saw mild gains for most of the session, albeit later warning off highs, as prices consolidated from the prior day’s slump, whilst the delayed weekly Private Inventory release showed a much larger-than-expected draw in crude and subsequently led to upticks at the time.
Spot gold traded flat in a narrow range under USD 2,500/oz with the yellow metal finding some overnight resistance at the level awaiting the next catalyst.
Copper futures traded on either side of USD 9,000/t (3M LME) and in a tight range against the backdrop of a tentative market.
Japanese Foreign Bond Investment w/e 1.6405T (Prev. 1.543T, Rev. 1.556T)
South Korea GDP Growth QQ Revised (Q2) -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)
South Korea GDP Growth YY Revised (Q2) 2.3% (Prev. 2.3%)
CENTRAL BANKS
Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said the Fed needs to cut the policy rate due to falling inflation and a slowing economy. Daly stated the size of the September rate cut is still unknown and that more data, including Friday’s job market report and CPI, is needed. She highlighted that the labour market has softened but remains healthy, and any overly tight policy could lead to further labour market slowing. Daly also noted that price stability has not been fully restored, with inflation still a major concern, and businesses are being frugal with hiring but not yet laying off employees. She added that the current economic outlook is uncertain and data will be volatile.
Fed Beige Book: Employment levels were generally flat to up slightly in recent weeks.
BoJ Board Member Takata said Japan’s economy is recovering moderately, though some weak signs are evident; notes significant volatility in stock and FX markets but maintains that achieving the inflation target remains within reach, and BoJ must be vigilant to the chance of renewed wave of price hikes, while taking into account impact of yen rise in early August, according to Reuters. He noted it is hard to debate at this stage to what degree BoJ can shrink its balance sheet, and hard to pin down the precise level of Japan’s natural rate of interest. He said Japan’s current real interest rate is below the estimated natural rate of interest, which means monetary conditions remain accommodative and the fallout from market turbulence in early August remains, “so we must scrutinize the impact for the time being”. He noted the BoJ must adjust monetary conditions by ‘another gear’ if we can confirm that firms will continue to increase capex, wages and prices, and won’t hike policy rates with a pre-set level of neutral interest rate in mind. BoJ’s decision to reduce bond buying won’t hugely affect the impact of monetary easing, but marks a big turning point from when the central bank had YCC in place, and markets stabilizing after some turbulence, but must watch market developments with a very strong sense of urgency.
BoJ to hold meeting on market operations on October 16th from 17:30 local time, according to Reuters.
RBA Governor Bullock repeated that it is premature to be thinking about rate cuts; as of now, the board does not expect to be in a position to cut rates in the near term. She noted the RBA’s highest priority has been and remains to bring inflation down, and the Board remains vigilant to upside risks to inflation, whilst the RBA’s full employment goal is not served by letting inflation stay above target indefinitely. She noted substantial uncertainty around the central outlook, with risks on both sides and if circumstances change, the board will respond accordingly. Bullock said the labour market remains relatively tight, expected to ease gradually, and labour cost growth is strong reflecting wage increases, and weak productivity. She warned key drivers of elevated inflation are housing costs, market services, and CPI rents inflation is likely to be high for some time. Bullock said need to see results on inflation before lowering rates; board is not going to focus on one inflation number, and slightly elevated AUD is positive for inflation fight.
GEOPOLITICS
White House reportedly scrambling to put forward a new Israel-Hamas proposal; draft accord could come next week or sooner; there is a strong perception that a ceasefire is slipping away, according to Reuters sources.
Senior officials from the US and Israel reportedly held a low-profile virtual meeting on Tuesday to discuss how to ease tensions with Lebanon and prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, according to Axios citing officials.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ASML (ASML NA) CEO repeated 2024 and 2025 guidance and said the chip market recovery is uneven.
2 JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY/VOLKSWAGEN
Their choice: fire union workers to cut costs or go bust
(Mish Shedlock)
Volkswagen’s Choice: Fire Union Workers And Cut Costs, Or Go Bankrupt
Volkswagen’s announcement on Monday (September 2) that it is considering closing factories in Germany is unprecedented in the German automaker’s 87-year history. Such plant closures were considered off the table for the Wolfsburg-based company.
To make matters even worse for the 680,000 VW employees worldwide, the management also feels forced to end its job security program which has been in place since 1994 and prevents job cuts until 2029.
The regional state of Lower Saxony still holds one-fifth of the company’s shares and a permanent seat on the supervisory board, meaning securing jobs and factories has always been seen as matters of state interest.
Last year, Volkswagen launched a cost-cutting program aimed at saving €10 billion ($11.06 billion) by 2026. However, the mass-market carmaker would need to cut an additional €4 billion, according to a report by German business daily Handelsblatt.
In a letter to employees on Monday, VW brand chief Thomas Schäfer described the situation as “extremely tense” and beyond the scope of “simple cost-cutting measures.” VW Group CEO Oliver Blume added that the European automotive market is in a “highly challenging and serious situation,” and that Germany has fallen behind in terms of competitiveness.
As a result, the 10 car brands within the VW Group must be comprehensively restructured, and “plant closures are no longer excluded,” Blume said, adding that layoffs through early retirement and severance packages are also no longer sufficient. Therefore, VW feels “compelled to terminate the employment protection agreement that has been in place since 1994.”
The Emden mayor has the backing of labor union leaders like Thorsten Gröger, who described the VW plant closures “irresponsible plan.”
The VW works council, meanwhile, is particularly enraged by VW’s reluctance to clarify who might be affected and how. “This puts all German sites in the crosshairs — regardless of whether they are VW locations or subsidiaries, in western or eastern Germany,” said Daniela Cavallo, head of the general works council. She announced “fierce resistance.”
CAR founder and director Ferdinand Dudenhöffer sees an “age-old VW problem” because the carmaker is “more like a state enterprise than a market-driven company.” The problem will persist, he told DW, as long as VW’s company structure remains “flawed.” Along with its 20% stake and a seat on the VW board, the state of Lower Saxony was also granted a blocking minority on key decisions.
Lower Saxon State Premier Stephan Weil has already criticized VW’s management, saying “the question of plant closures will not arise due to the successful use of alternatives.”
Easy to Spot Problems
The state has no business owning shares. Letting government dictate business decisions is more than a bit problematic.
Unions are obviously a problem.
And for the situation to get this out of hand suggests VW management put off needed decisions too long.
No Realistic Choice
Saxony’s Prime Minister, Stephan Weil, says “the question of plant closures will not arise due to the successful use of alternatives.”
OK Mr. Weil, are you going to force VW to keep making cars nobody wants to buy?
There is no choice here. So look for a scapegoat: China.
Time to Blame Foreigners
The core problem of Germany and the EU is they are both stuck in the past. Eurointelliligence mentioned this yesterday.
It’s difficult to deny that the EU has a China problem. The union’s most important outside trading partner has turned into an existential problem for some of the key industries of the future, like cars or renewable energy infrastructure.
But it would be an equally serious mistake to see this as all about China, as opposed to economic and industrial policy decisions the EU has made too. We noted, for instance, a recent interview in Het Financieele Dagblad with Wopke Hoekstra, where the China issue was a major theme.
In the interview, Hoekstra acknowledged what he regarded as internal failings of the EU: labyrinthine bureaucracy, and the lack of a single, functional capital market. We would agree these are both problems. But if dealing with these internal problems is the expressed preference, the revealed preference is more to go after China. Progress on the capital markets union has been crawling along. Tariffs on Chinese electric cars have been swift by comparison.
The real core problem is that we have fallen behind, and done so because our economic and industrial system is stuck in the past. The Chinese electric car, battery, and solar companies that now dominate these markets are relatively new, and there are a lot of them. The US’s tech giants are more consolidated, but have also sprung up quite recently.
If you look at the largest European firms, in contrast, it really is the old continent. Most either date back more than 50 years themselves, or were derived from other firms that do.The trifecta of corporations, unions, and governments we have built does not easily allow for new entrants. This is not sustainable when you need them to gain a foothold in new technologies.
That was prophetic. Here’s an amazing rant blaming China.
Sorry State of Affairs in the EU
Innovation in the EU is in dead industries: Analog phones and diesel (by cheating).
The EU still strives to protect the small French farm. The EU lags the US and China on AI, EVs, phones, space exploration, and satellite launching.
Since the EU has zero participation in AI, it hope to regulate AI to death.
The only innovation we have seen in Germany is in diesel cheating.
Sorry Bosh, diesel is dead. Upgrading diesel technology is mostly a waste of time and money even if Bosh is telling the truth this time.
The future is electric. Germany still wants to look backward.
Yes the future is electric.
My problem is not with the future, it has always been the path to get there on absurd schedules forced by the government with an infrastructure that still isn’t in place.
Biden mandated full electric instead of letting manufacturers develop hybrids. Losses have been immense.
Here’s a snip from Eurointelligence in my 2018 post.
This story reminds us of the German company that developed the last generation of analogue telephone exchanges in the 1990s, hoping to fight off the relentless advance of the digital technology. It was mature and stable. And probably with some technical advantages over the then still-not-fully-developed digital technologies. But it came too late.
We find it hard to believe that this technology can be introduced early enough and in sufficient quantities to prevent diesel bans in German and other European cities. And the latter is the reason for the acute sales crisis of diesel cars, which has turned into a self-fulfilling prophecy. At a time when the US and China are developing electrical smart cars, the fate of the ultimate diesel engine looks to be the same as that of the world’s best analogue telephone exchange.
Germany and the EU are still focused on the past and hoping to prevent an AI future. But good news, a scapegoat has been successfully identified.
Apple, Google, Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvdia could not exist in the EU because the regulators would have broken them up in the name of competition before they ever got big enough to be meaningful.
For Volkswagen, the Bumpy Road to Electric Vehicles Starts to Hit Home
EV sales in Germany have plummeted this year, with Tesla’s registrations in the country down 41% for the year through July, compared with the same period of 2023.
“There are plants dedicated to EVs that aren’t producing at the levels expected and costs are out of whack,” said Bernstein analyst Stephen Reitman.
Daniela Cavallo, the union leader who heads Volkswagen’s works council, vowed Monday to fight the move, which is a prerequisite for any potential plant closure in Germany.
Volkswagen can’t easily dial back its profit-sapping EV investments or production because its cars need to meet much stricter European emissions standards starting next year. Its fleet carbon emissions last year were 24.2% higher than they will need to be in 2025, according to data collated by Bernstein, compared with 19.6% for Mercedes-Benz and 9.7% for BMW.
Labor costs in Germany are the highest in Europe, according to an analysis by the German Association of the Automotive Industry. A German auto worker cost roughly €62 an hour last year—equivalent to roughly $68.50—compared with €23 for a Czech worker and €29 for a Spanish one. In Hungary, where BYD is building a factory to avoid European Union tariffs, auto workers are paid only €16 an hour.
Say goodbye to a vehicle that never should have been conceived in the first place. Customers don’t want it.
Lesson of the Day
Government setting outrageous goals, then telling business how they must deliver them never works very well.
Despite huge subsidies, Ford still cannot make ends meet on EVs.
Yet, due to government coercion, Ford is forced to try, try, and try again. If and when Ford succeeds, it will have more production capacity than it needs because EVs have less parts and are easier to build.
GERMANY/
Seems that leftist parties are call engaging in fraud to stay in power
(zerohedge)
Germany’s AfD Party Calls For End To Mail-In Ballots, Launches Probe Into Suspicious Software Error
Although the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party secured a first-place finish in the Saxony elections on Sunday, the party is still launching an investigation into an alleged computer error that cost them a seat in parliament and is also calling for an end to mail-in votes, citing security concerns and shady practices.
The first issue is the alleged software glitch that resulted in the AfD and the Christian Democrats (CDU) both losing a seat, while the Greens and Social Democrats (SPD) both gained one seat. The party says that it is launching an investigation into this.
“We want to know exactly what went wrong,” said the AfD’s state and parliamentary group leader Jörg Urban in a statement. He is demanding an exact error analysis. “If there are any irregularities, we will take legal action.”
Notably, the loss of one seat resulted in the AfD losing its blocking majority, which would have allowed the party, for example, to block the appointment of certain judges in the state.
🇩🇪 NEW: Alleged software error in Germany means the AfD and CDU both lose one seat in Saxony.
That seat was important for the AfD, as it provided the party with a "blocking minority" during crucial votes that require a two-thirds majority. pic.twitter.com/kqmCw3nLdR
The error initially gave the AfD and CDU an incorrect number of seats. After a review, “the state election management corrected the allocation of seats,” according to the German news outlet Leipziger Volkzeitung.
Urban said that nobody is being accused of manipulating the vote, but, “in this case, it is about the AfD’s political options in the Saxon state parliament. Any doubt about the final election result must therefore be ruled out,” he said.
Regardless of why the error came about, Saxony’s election commission suffered a serious black eye, casting doubt on the election results during an already polarized election.
🇩🇪 NEW: "Uncontrolled immigration" fueled the AfD's "shock" victory in the east.
In fact, immigration is now the TOP issue for Germans, according to political analysts. pic.twitter.com/JBunVsP7Yl
Following the results in Thuringia and Saxony, AfD co-leader, Tino Chrupalla, is calling for an end to mail-in ballots. He discussed his concerns about this form of voting during a conference with top AfD officials.
“It is also the task of the opposition to always doubt what a government is doing or what happened in an election. That is also a legitimate right and that is a good thing. And I just really want to point out, and we will also question this, for example, the entire security for the legal storage of ballot boxes, some of which are not stored in a legally secure manner, where in some cases only one person or two have access to these ballot boxes,” he said.
🇩🇪 JUST IN: "I would ban postal voting."
Germany's AfD party is calling for an end to mass mail-in ballots for elections.
He went on to say that postal voting has been a concern in other elections and that these issues keep coming up. However, he also pointed to a problem plaguing other countries like the United States, which instituted mass mail-in ballots in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, which involves activists entering retirement homes and potentially manipulating vulnerable elderly voters.
In the case of Germany, Chrupalla stated, “We have also seen this in old and other election campaigns, such as the current campaigning in retirement and nursing homes, especially when the CDU and SPD campaign in these old people’s homes, which are run by Diakonie or Caritas, or go in and out there, and the Afd does not even get access to present their programs to the elderly. These are also things of influence that are not democratic in my opinion.”
Nortably, both Diakonie and Caritas are run by the Protestant and Catholic churches, both of which have come out against the AfD, including expelling members of the party from the Church and calling for Germans to vote against them.
Chrupalla is calling for an end to postal voting, saying: “Personally, I would ban postal voting again. It has only been introduced as an exception or initiated in the Federal Republic of Germany. It is not the rule, it should not become the rule and it is not regulated by law in such a way that it is made the rule.”
end
GERMANY
this Muslim attack was foiled as the gunman was trying to attack Israeli consulate in Munich
(zerohedge)
Islamist Gunman Killed Trying To Attack Israeli Consulate In Munich Was Already Known To Police
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 09:45 AM
A suspected terror attack was attempted near the Israeli Consulate in Munich on Thursday, which resulted in the attacker being fatally wounded by police amid a huge security response.
A shootout erupted shortly after 9am after a young man was witnessed carrying a “long-barreled gun” with a bayonet attached to it in the Karolinenplatz area, near downtown Munich. Five officers were at the scene at the time and responded with gunfire. The 18-year-old shooter later identified as being a Muslim from Austria died at the scene.
German Police said they immediately deployed 500 officers to the area on fears there could be more attackers. Authorities believe that the Israeli consulate was the target given it happened on the anniversary of the Palestinian terror attack on the 1972 Munich Olympics which killed eleven Israeli athletes. But investigators say they are still looking at the motive.
German authorities in a follow-up press briefing confirmed they are treating a shooting as a “possible attack on an Israeli institution,” according to the words State Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann. The weapon used was also revealed to be a vintage rifle.
Dr. Josef Schuster, the head of the Central Council of Jews in Germany, said that while the background and motive for the attack is still not fully known, “What we do know takes our breath away.” He added: There could have been a catastrophe in Munich today. I thank the police for their quick intervention.”
German police shot dead an armed assailant near the Israeli consulate in Munich, saying the incident was a "possible attack on an Israeli institution."
Police confirmed the attacker was an 18-year-old Austrian national known to security authorities as an Islamist. pic.twitter.com/ljJXcC9f8m
Spiegel news outlet reported that the gunman was already known to security authorities as an Islamist who lived in Austria’s Salzburg area near the border with Bavaria. Below is Times of Israel citing German and European media:
The suspect in a shooting near the Israeli consulate in Munich was a teenage Austrian national who was known to security authorities as an Islamist, the Standard newspaper and Spiegel news outlet report.
The suspect lived in Austria’s Salzburg area near the border with Bavaria and had recently traveled to Germany, the reports say.
“We have to assume that an attack on the Israeli Consulate possibly was planned early today,” Bavaria’s top security official, state Interior Minister Joachim Herrmann, told reporters at the scene. “It’s obvious that, if someone parks here within sight of the Israeli Consulate… then starts shooting, it most probably isn’t a coincidence.”
It turns out the consulate was closed at the time of the shooting, with diplomatic staff at the time planning to attend a memorial memorial ceremony for the 1972 attack. No Israeli personnel were hurt in Thursday’s incident.
#BREAKING Israel President says the shooting at the consulate in Munich was a terror attack after a phone call with his German counterpart pic.twitter.com/MFiwIEyxVs
The fact that the young Islamist was already known to German authorities raises a lot of questions about not only his ease of entry into the country from Austria, but how he wasn’t apprehended and questioned earlier. There’s also the question of how he was able to walk around central Munich for so long in broad daylight (long enough to be filmed by nearby bystanders) brandishing a large vintage gun with a bayonet.
HUNGARY
how insane is this? Work visas for Russian citizens is forbidden?
(zerohedge)
Hungary Rejects EU ‘Hysteria’ Over Work Visas For Russians
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 02:45 AM
Hungary and its leader Viktor Orban are once again at the center of an EU firestorm of controversy over a new work visa and residency permit policy which will allow easier access to the country for Russian and Belarusian nationals.
The central European country has long had a national card system which previously was only available to Ukrainian and Serbian citizens, which both have EU candidacy status but are not yet part of the bloc. The permit scheme was just extended to eight more countries, including Russia and Belarus.
European officials have blasted their inclusion in the visa program as essentially an open invitation for more Russian spies to come into the heart of Europe and given the ongoing Ukraine war.
Days ago a series of statements from EU officials raised “security concerns”:
“Such a mechanism is highly questionable and raises very serious security concerns,” Manfred Weber, chairman of the conservative European People’s Party (EPP) wrote in a letter sent to European Council head Charles Michel on Monday.
He argued the new visa rules could create “grave loopholes for espionage activities,” warning that the policy could “make it easier for Russians to move around” the EU’s borderless Schengen area.
Weber further described “The lack of a clear need for such a broad and unregulated entry mechanism for Russian and Belarusian workers, combined with the possibility of inadequate security screening poses questions over the consequences for Hungary and the wider Schengen area.”
He and others are demanding a formal explanation and discussion from Budapest. Critics of the policy change have said this is tantamount to handing out “easy visas” for Russians and Belarussians.
However, Hungary has rejected what it calls “political hysteria” among EU leaders. The West has long denounced Orban’s personal closeness with Russia’s Putin and generally cooperative policies, and refusal to curtail Russian gas imports.
“There is no legal and security issue whatsoever when it comes to the national card,” Hungary’s minister for European Union affairs, Janos Boka, explained to reporters in Brussels Wednesday.
“However there is… a clear political hysteria which is created by the majority of the European parliament and certain member states,” he added.
Hungary’s change in its work permit system has been in effect since July. The controversy unleashed in its wake is yet the latest example of Orban being viewed as a ‘pariah’ within the EU. But he’s always vowed to put Hungary and its interests first.
end
POLAND/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
getting scarier by the day
(zerohedge)
Poland Scrambles Fighter Jets As Russia Strikes Far Western Ukraine
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 05:45 AM
Another overnight Russian missile and drone attack on Ukraine included major strikes on the far western city of Lviv, which lies hundreds of miles from the front lines, which resulted in seven people killed, according to Ukrainian authorities.
These stepped-up strikes are widely viewed as retaliation for Kiev forces’ ongoing Kursk cross-border offensive. But given that missiles rained down so close in proximity to Ukraine’s border with Poland, Polish aerial forces were scrambled during the attack.
Reuters reports that Polish and allied aircraft were scrambled for the third time in eight days to closely monitor the inbound projectiles, and were ready to intercept them in the event the missiles approached Polish airspace.
The incident shows how easily NATO aircraft could jump into the fight against Russian airpower on Ukraine’s behalf. Warsaw has complained of recent airspace violations by Russian projectiles, including a drone that went down in its territory on Aug.26.
Earlier this week Poland’s foreign minister sparked fresh controversy within the NATO military alliance by saying that member states have a ‘duty’ to shoot down incoming Russian missiles when they are in Ukraine’s skies threatening the population below.
“Membership in Nato does not trump each country’s responsibility for the protection of its own airspace – it’s our own constitutional duty,” FM Radosław Sikorski told the Financial Times. The comments showed little concern over the possibility that such action risks major escalation with Russia.
“I’m personally of the view that, when hostile missiles are on course of entering our airspace, it would be legitimate self-defense [to strike them] because once they do cross into our airspace, the risk of debris injuring someone is significant,” the Polish top diplomat had said.
Without doubt, Poland constitutes ground zero for NATO’s ‘eastern flank’ and has been engaged in a massive defense spending drive and military build-up since the Feb.2022 Russian invasion began.
Below are some stats and recent defense spending developments via Al Jazeera:
On Tuesday, Warsaw announced new military deals worth $520m, the latest move in a drive to beef up its defence prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
Poland currently spends 4 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP) on defense – the highest ratio of any NATO member – and hopes to boost the number to 4.7 percent next year.
Last month, Warsaw signed a $10bn deal to buy 96 Apache attack helicopters from US manufacturer Boeing. They will replace outdated Russian Mi-24 helicopters.
Warsaw has also announced a deal to buy hundreds of AIM-120C AMRAAM air-to-air missiles, as well as a contract for 48 launchers for US-designed Patriot air defence systems.
Poland’s army has 200,000 soldiers, making it NATO’s third largest after the United States and Turkey, and the biggest in the European Union.
As for Poland’s push to get NATO leadership to sign on to new rules of engagement regarding Russian strikes, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who is soon expected to retire from the top post, has issued some pushback.
Prior Russian aerial assaults have targeted a military base just tens of kilometers from the Polish border…
Stoltenberg rejected the Polish proposal and asserted that it presents too much risk of NATO “becoming part of the conflict.” Of course, at this point this seems to be exactly what Zelensky wants–to drag the West deeper into the war on Ukraine’s behalf.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL//HAMAS
IDF finds tunnel shaft where bodies of hostages were found in a children’s yard
“The tunnel was hidden in a child’s yard, a place where a child should be safe, and not used as a human shield for Hamas.”
The IDF located the shaft to the tunnel where the bodies of the six hostages were found, surrounded by childrens toys in a backyard in Gaza, September 4, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
The IDF found the shaft to the tunnel in which the bodies of the hostages Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Almog Sarusi, Alexander Lobanov, and Ori Danino, were found Saturday in a children’s yard, the IDF reported on Wednesday.
In a published video, a soldier explained that the IDF received clear intelligence about the location of the tunnel shaft, leading the IDF to operate in that precise location.
“As you can see, the tunnel was hidden in a child’s yard, a place where a child should be safe, and not used as a human shield for Hamas,” the soldier said in the video.
The IDF’s 162nd Division and the Shin Bet located the shaft in a children’s yard, in a civilian area filled with traps.
The IDF stated, “This is another example of Hamas’s cynical use of civilian space for terrorist activity.”
The IDF retrieved the bodies of the hostages from a tunnel under the city of Rafah in Gaza. They were likely slaughtered by Hamas shortly before the IDF got to them in Rafah.
The bodies were found only one kilometer from where Kaid Farhan al-Alkadi, age 52, from Rahat, was found last week. Since Alkadi was found, the IDF put out instructions to be extra careful in the area, but it is possible that Hamas killed the six, knowing that the military was close by and that the hostages might be taken by the IDF alive.
Yonah Jeremy Bob contributed to this report.
END
Why Israel will never leave the Philadelphi corridor!
(Jerusalem Post)
Israel could leave Philadelphi Corridor as part of permanent ceasefire – Netanyahu
Netanyahu told the foreign media that if Israel were to leave before the start of Phase One, international pressure would prevent it from returning.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFSEPTEMBER 4, 2024 20:49Updated: SEPTEMBER 4, 2024 21:59
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stands before a map showing the Gaza Strip, during a press conference for the international media at the Government Press office in Jerusalem, amid the Israel-Hamas conflict, 04 September 2024.(photo credit: Abir Sultan/Pool via REUTERS)
Israel could agree to leave the Philadelphi Corridor within the parameters of a permanent ceasefire such as would be discussed in Phase Two of the hostage deal, but not in Phase One, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the foreign media in a special press briefing in Jerusalem Wednesday night.
“We also agreed to begin discussions about a permanent ceasefire,” he said as he referenced a conversation that would take place during Phase One of the three-phase deal US President Joe Biden unveiled on May 31.
“The conditions that we shall have for a permanent ceasefire must include a situation where the Philadelphi Corridor cannot be perforated,” Netanyahu stated.
It’s unlikely, he said, that a realistic security plan exists that would prevent the smuggling of weapons under that critical buffer zone between Egypt and Gaza.
“Bring me anyone who will actually show us, not on paper, not in words, not in a slide, but on the ground, day after day after week, month after month, that they can actually prevent the recurrence of” weapons smuggling, he stated.If such a plan exists, he said, “we’re open to considering it. But I don’t see that happening… and until that happens, we’re there,” with the IDF protecting the Philadelphi Corridor.
View of the Philadelphi Corridor between the southern Gaza Strip and Egypt, on July 15, 2024. (credit: Oren Cohen/Flash90)
Certainly, he noted, Israel has no intention of leaving the Philadelphi Corridor during Phase One of the deal, which would last for six weeks.
He made his case to the foreign media repeating many arguments he had presented on Tuesday when he gave a briefing to the Israeli media in Hebrew.
Netanyahu defends holding Philadelphi Corridor
Netanyahu relied on maps of the region and of Gaza, as well as photographs of the tunnels Hamas had built under the Philadelphi Corridor by which to smuggle arms from Egypt to Gaza. He also put a copy on the screen of a page of Hamas instructions in Arabic on how to carry out a propaganda campaign against Israel, including blaming Netanyahu for the absence of a deal.
He noted that the discussion going on now, referred to Phase One of the three-part deal. Hamas has insisted that Israel must withdraw from that Corridor prior to the start of Phase One.
The May 31 framework agreement that both Israeli and Hamas backed, did not mention the Philadelphi, but it did require the IDF to leave populated areas of Gaza in Phase One. It’s a step that Israel has agreed to.The Philadelphi Corridor is not considered a populated area, but it does intersect with some populated areas. The issue of the Philadelphi Corridor, which the IDF seized only in May, came up in the negotiations around the details of how to implement the deal, which would see some 18-32 hostages returned in Phase One and the remainder of the live hostages brought back in Phase Two.
Netanyahu told the foreign media that if Israel were to leave prior to the start of Phase One, international pressure would prevent it from returning.
“When we want to come back [to Philadelphi] we’ll pay an exorbitant price in many fields,” including the loss of soldiers’ lives in retaking the Corridor, Netanyahu told reporters in Jerusalem, speaking to them in English.
“We’re in now, [if] we leave we won’t [be able to] come back. You know it. Everybody here knows it. Everybody in here knows what pressure will be bought on us so that we don’t come back, what price we’ll have to pay if we do want to come back, it’s just not going to happen,” Netanyahu stated.
He rejected accusations that he has stood firm on Philadelphi for political reasons, fearing a deal would cause him to lose coalition partners and force his government to collapse.
Netanyahu stressed that he long believed the Philadelphi Corridor was a significant strategic asset and had opposed the IDF pullout from that buffer zone during the Disengagement from the Gaza Strip (2005).
Vows to prevent future attacks
He spoke with reporters in the aftermath of the Hamas execution last weekend of six of the hostages, four of whom had likely been slated for release in Phase One of the deal.
CNN said it had spoken to released hostage Aviva Siegel, whose husband Keith is still held in Gaza.
“She told me that she believes that you are sentencing her husband Keith to die by prioritizing the Philadelphia Corridor over [all]. She has this question for you, is Keith going to come home alive or dead?”
Netanyahu, who apologized at the press conference as well as in his Hebrew briefing on Tuesday for failing to return the six captives, said, “I’ll do everything to make sure that Keith and all the other hostages come back.”
He stressed, however, that “if we relieve the pressure [on Hamas], if we get out of the Philadelphi Corridor, we’re not going to get the hostages back,” he said.
It set in motion the worst-case scenario in which the hostages would not return and Hamas could rearm and execute another October 7-style attack, Netanyahu said.
It was his responsibility, Netanyahu said, to ensure that this would not happen.
“I can understand the torment of family… They’re undergoing an agony that it’s hard to fathom, and I understand that.
But the responsibility of leaders is not merely to share the sentiment, the emotion, but also to exercise judgment, the correct judgment, to make sure that these horrors do not happen again. I believe that our strategy is the best way to achieve both goals, both freeing the hostages and ensuring that Gaza never poses a threat to Israel again,” he said.
The pressure to make the deal, he said, should be directed at Hamas, not at Israel.
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
IDF aircraft target armed terrorists, eliminate son of terrorist Zakaria Zubeidi – report
IAF strikes in Tubas eliminated five terrorists, including Zakaria Zubeidi’s son. Zubeidi was a key figure in terrorism and extremist activities.
By MAARIVSEPTEMBER 5, 2024 04:17Updated: SEPTEMBER 5, 2024 09:22
IAF aircraft targeted armed terrorists in three separate strikes on Thursday, eliminating five terrorists, including the son of the terrorist Zakaria Zubeidi, according to multiple Palestinian reports, including the Palestinian Red Crescent.
In the past, Zubeidi planned and carried out attacks, including suicide bombings, operated a Palestinian terror cell in the Jenin area, and maintained close ties with Hezbollah members. Zubeidi was also known for his connection to radical left-wing activist Tali Fahima, who became known for her involvement with extremist groups and her outspoken criticism of Israeli government policies.
tali fahima 298.88 (credit: Ariel Jerozolimski)
Zakaria Muhammad Abd al-Rahman al-Zubeidi was born in 1976 in Jenin to a family of nine. His father died of cancer shortly after his birth. From a young age, Zubeidi was involved in conflicts with the Israeli military, including being shot by soldiers after throwing stones at civilian vehicles, which he claimed caused him a lasting limp.
Fighting against Israel
At 14, he was imprisoned for six months and later sentenced to four and a half years for throwing a Molotov cocktail. While serving his first sentence, he was recruited by Fatah. After his release, he joined the Palestinian police, worked as a builder in Tel Aviv, and drove a truck in Jenin.
Following the death of his mother by IDF gunfire and his brother’s death during Operation Defensive Shield, he turned to terrorism, joining Fatah’s terrorist groups and fighting against the Israeli army during the operation.
Eventually, he decided to join the Al-Aqsa Brigades, the special arm of the Palestinian terror organization. Since joining, Zubeidi has been responsible for a series of terrorist attacks, including many in the Samaria region, such as shooting at Israeli vehicles and, eventually, a suicide bombing at a Likud branch in Beit Shean, where six people were killed.
ISRAEL /LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
Lebanon’s Christian Bloc Charges Hezbollah With ‘Imposing’ War On The People
Wednesday, Sep 04, 2024 – 07:20 PM
Hezbollah on Wednesday unleashed its largest volley of rockets on northern Israel since late August. At around noon local time, nearly 50 rocket sirens sounded throughout settlements and towns in northern Israel as around 65 missiles rained down.
The settlement of Kiryat Shmona was hit, according to Israeli media, resulting in fires in surrounding fields – which has been a common feature of the conflict with Hezbollah. The settlements of Malchia, Ramot Naftali, and Beit Hillel were also targeted, but it remains unclear how many projectiles made it through.
An Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) statement indicted that anti-air systems were able to intercept many rockets while failing to shoot down others.
Before Wednesday’s attack, Hezbollah’s daily rocket fire had significantly dropped and was at a bit of a lull. The IDF had last month launched a large-scale ‘preemptive attack’ on Lebanon, and Israeli officials attribute this action to quieting the ferocity of Hezbollah attacks in the week after.
The Jerusalem Post explains of the recent daily stats as follows:
The military did not explain why it missed certain rockets, though given the context, the sudden large volume after a relatively quiet period may have partially taken the air defense apparatus by surprise.
Prior to August 25, Hezbollah had at times launched 100 or even 200 rockets in a day against Israel’s North and frequently was launching dozens per day.
In that sense, it was clear on Wednesday that Hezbollah had re-crossed a threshold of challenging Israel with more rocket attacks after a period of time in which it had seemed deterred by the August 25 IDF preemptive strike.
Still, the Israeli August preemptive strikes are having their intended effect of serving as a major warning to the whole of the Lebanese government and people.
Israel has since Oct.7 held the threat over the populating of “bombing Lebanon back to the stone age” – as Israeli officials have often repeated – should Hezbollah keep escalating its attacks which have left some 80,000 Israelis evacuated from their homes.
On Sunday the head of the Christian political party Lebanese Forces (LF), Samir Geagea, charged Hezbollah with “confiscating the Lebanese people’s decision on war and peace, as if there were no state”. He has accused the Shia paramilitary group of endangering the whole nation against the will of the Lebanese people.
Geagea described that the tit-for-tat conflict on the southern border is “a war that the Lebanese people reject, but has been imposed on them.”
“It is a war that the Lebanese people do not want and over which the government has had no say. This war does not serve Lebanon, it has brought nothing to Gaza, nor alleviated its suffering one iota,” he added.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
‘Killing of hostages makes it more difficult to close deal,’ US says
“We’ve suffered yet another huge setback here.” Kirby said, but that “doesn’t mean we’re not going to keep trying,” John Kirby told reporters
By TOVAH LAZAROFFSEPTEMBER 5, 2024 19:52Updated: SEPTEMBER 5, 2024 20:2
White House national security spokesperson John Kirby answers a question during a press briefing at the White House in Washington, U.S., September 4, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)
The Hamas execution of six hostages in Gaza last weekend has complicated efforts to finalize a ceasefire deal but has increased the urgency to do so, US National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby told reporters on Thursday.
“We’ve suffered yet another huge setback here.” Kirby said, but that “doesn’t mean we’re not going to keep trying.” He focused, as other US officials have in the past day, on the complications around the exchange of up to 32 hostages for the release of Palestinian security prisoners and terrorists held in Israeli jails.
“The exchange of prisoners has not been agreed to, and that is really the heart of this deal,” Kirby stated.
Hamas not only killed hostages over the weekend but also changed some of the terms of the exchange, he said.
Kirby said that talks were continuing from the negotiators’ home countries but that no follow-up common meeting had been planned in a single location as had taken place in the past weeks in Cairo and Doha.
Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Almog Sarusi, Alexander Lobanov, and Ori Danino. (credit: Hostages and Missing Families Forum/Screenshot via X)
Negotiations should continue
“I can’t speak to the in the motivation to murder those hostages, but we still believe that as tragic as that was, and it certainly was tragic, that the ceasefire negotiations can and should continue,” he said.
There is now point-to-point “communication between us and our counterparts in Qatar and Egypt and, of course, Israel, to try to still see if we can move this thing forward,” he said.
“If there’s compromise, if there’s leadership… we can still get this deal. And that’s what we’re focused on right now, is trying to hammer out the differences that still exist between what Hamas says it wants and what Israel says it needs,” Kirby stated.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/POLAND
If the USA gives Ukraine long range missiles then Russia will go into Poland to act as a buffer zone
(zerohedge0
If US Gives Long-Range Weapons To Kiev, Occupied Buffer Zone May Reach Poland: Medvedev
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 12:35 PM
The Kremlin has just threatened to take over and directly occupy essentially the whole of Ukraine, extending the main theater of war far past the Donbass in the East, in a warning aimed at Washington and NATO as President Biden mulls allowing US weapons for long-range attacks deep inside Russian territory.
The fresh warning was issued by the Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council Dmitry Medvedev, who is certainly no stranger to issuing boisterous, hugely threatening statements. He told a press briefing with correspondents from TASS that a future permanent buffer zone along Russia’s southern border with Ukraine will crucial in staving off cross-border shelling and attacks.
But, he explained, if the West supplies longer range missiles to Kiev and greenlights their use on Russian soil, Russia’s military will then expand the proposed buffer zone all the way to Poland. Reuters this week has reported the Biden administration is getting closer to approving the long-range missiles the Zelensky government has been pleading for.
“Obviously, we need to create a buffer zone for the future to ensure that nothing flies in. Its size is anyone’s guess, but it should be sufficient,” he began in the Wednesday comments.
Referring to the Ukrainians, Medvedev continued, “If they wish to get long-range means of attack, such as cruise and ballistic missiles, then this buffer zone should stretch as far as Poland.”
On June 13, at a meeting with frontline correspondents, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Russia might consider creating a buffer zone on the territory of Ukraine, if bombardments of its regions went on.
Once again Putin mentioned the subject at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) on June 16. He said that Russia would consider creating a “buffer zone” on Ukrainian territory if attacks from their side continued.
In essence Medvedev just described the possibility of establishing Ukraine as a buffer zone against all of NATO, particularly its eastern flank country of Poland, which has embarked on a path of heightened defense spending of late.
In the opening months of the invasion launched in February 2022, Russian troops made it all the way to Kiev in a show of force, but by many accounts it proved a massive logistical challenge – and Russia primarily withdrew to solidify the territories of the Donbass, where the front lines are located now.
Whether Russia could actually successfully occupy the whole of Ukraine is another story, but Medvedev clearly intends to send a message of massive escalation should the White House approve long-range weapons.
Separately, on the same day as these remarks Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued the following warning: “The US has already crossed the threshold that they designated for themselves. They are being incited and [Ukrainian President] Zelensky, of course, sees this and uses it. Whoever jokes about our red lines, do not fool with our red lines. They know perfectly well what they are,” he was cited in Sputnik as saying.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/ EUROPE/USA
end
UKRAINE/RUSSIA
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
Julie A. Galles, age 66, of Wisconsin Rapids, WI, passed away on Friday, August 30, 2024 at The House of the Dove Hospice Center in Marshfield, WI. Julie obtained a bachelor’s degree in Nursing from the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire before becoming a Registered Nurse at Children’s Hospital of Wisconsin in Milwaukee for over 35 years.
Kennesaw, Georgia – Terri Lea Barth (Tudor), affectionately known as Mama T and who always had a smile on her face, passed away peacefully and surrounded by family on August 2, 2024, in Kennesaw, Georgia. Terri graduated from Wauconda High School in 1973 and went on to earn her degree as a Registered Nurse (R.N.) from the Kishwaukee College of Nursing. She dedicated her career to saving lives and helping others, working in health care for over 20 years at Condell Hospital in Libertyville, IL and another 10 years with Mercy Health System in McHenry, IL.
Gambier, OH – It is with Great sadness that the family of Kimberly S. Huffman announces her passing at the age of 59. Kim proudly worked as a Nurse’s Aide for over twenty years, providing comfort and end-of-life care at The Laurels of Mt. Vernon, Ohio Eastern Star and Hospice of Knox County to those in their final days.
If you like “News from Underground” (or hate it, but get something out of it), please read this post.
Blanca (Partridge) Kumbera, 62
August 31, 2024
Hanford, California – On August 23, 2024, Blanca (Partridge) Kumbera passed from this life into the loving arms of our Lord. Her passion was always being employed as a Registered Nurse. She graduated from College of Sequoias Nursing Program in 1985. Since age 21, She was employed in various hospitals over her thirty plus years in nursing, where she obtained an immense amount of nursing knowledge and experience. She enjoyed serving and caring for others who were ill and enjoyed training new nurses as she would take them under her wing.
Saint Claire, MO – Michelle Renee Meyers, who departed this life on August 28, 2024, at the age of 64. Michelle’s career as a nurse saw her providing care in various specialties, including telemetry, school nursing, urgent care, and wound care. Michelle’s compassionate nature was evident in her work, and she touched countless lives with her kindness and expertise.
Reading, Pennsylvania – Stephanie Marie Sigmund (Santiago) age 36, passed away on August 27, 2024, after her courageous battle with breastcancer at the Reading Hospital. She went on to attend The Reading Hospital School of Health Sciences. She was employed as a registered nurse at Genesis Health Care in Sinking Spring for 12 years. Recently being promoted to Director of Nursing in 2021.
Hamden, CT – Jenna Lynn Arater, 36, of Hamden, passed awaysuddenly on August 28, 2024. She resided in Hamden her whole life. Jenna became a Licensed Practical Nurse and worked at Hamden Heath Center.
Green Bay, Wisconsin – Paula J. Boehm, 61, passed away on August 26, 2024. Paula’s passion in helping others could be easily seen through her kind and caring personality alongside her career as a nurse. She was a friend to Mother Nature, always having a beautiful garden and a green thumb when it came to flowers. She enjoyed golfing and was a natural artist with a beautiful photographer’s eye. Her vibrant, caring personality will forever be cherished and her love for life will forever inspire all.
of clade I strain for 21 days), MISDIRECTION, see my substack below, this is fear-porn again, creating a fake non-pandemic, NOTHING to you if you are NOT gay or BI-SEXUAL or TRANNY etc.; we can’t see
who is on Epstein’s list of the government officials in the congress, senate, high society elites etc. who rape young children, sodomize them and protected by the gilded elite class and media, but no, we rather get monkeypox up our anus all day long, when truth and in fact if you are heterosexual, do not engage in male penis inserting in male anuses, are no bi-sexual pervert, are not GAY, not a tranny pervert, then you have no problem.
If your world does not involve freakish bi-sexuality, and you are confident and know your partner is low risk monogamous, then this monkeypox (MPOX) is not a problem for you.
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Let me start this monkeypox stack this way with some background:
We keep the debate only on the mechanisms of transmission (viral transmission mechanics) and not on sexual preferences etc. It appears to be transmitted as a sexually transmitted disease (STD) and thus we react in public health as we would for STDs. Do we do anything extra societally as to this monkeypox? No. Do we be scared? No. Do we wear masks? No. Do we shut down anything, schools, business, society? No. Do we do some contact tracing? Yes, in the high-risk sub-groups and if we think it warrants (for sure if there is a more virulent strain). No, if we do not. Acute if there is. Do we mass quarantine? No. There is no need. Do we order shelter-in-place? No. We just live life as normal in the low-risk heterosexual populations and turn off the insane corrupted media. That is all. Turn it off, turn off FOX and CNN!
The failed COVID mRNA vaccine as a background:
Let me start with this for it remains critical: the COVID vaccines, the mRNA platform, is a complete failure! This vaccine will harm and kill and is killing innocent healthy people coerced into taking it to put bread on the table. The vaccine is ineffective (you may say it’s a gene delivery platform, an injection and not a vaccine and I agree) and not properly safe. It is dangerous and I state and warn AGAIN, do not take it, do not take any more of it, do not under any circumstance give to your children. No healthy child. None!
This vaccine is non-sterilizing and the non-neutralizing vaccinal antibodies (Abs) binds to the virus’s spike (infectiousness of the virus) but does not stop infection or eliminates the virus. In fact, it enhances/facilitates infection. We have been saying this one year now (Vanden Bossche, Yeadon, McCullough, myself etc.). The vaccinal Abs and its sub-optimal immune pressure is causing selection pressure (Darwinian natural selection) to select the fittest, most infectious variants/clades to then become the new dominant more infectious variant. Among these, could be a more virulent/lethal variant. This could devastate humanity and if we wish to keep this pandemic ongoing for 100 years, with needless ineffective booster after booster, then we keep vaccinating with these failed mRNA vaccines.
Remember, we have and had the data (UK, Denmark, Scottish, Shrestha et al. Cleveland clinic etc.) that shows the 2 nd shot and the 3rd (1st booster) shot causes massive infection in the vaccinated, resulting in hospitalization, and death. Persons 50 years and over are at greatest risk as per data. If we want to harm and weaken and ‘slow kill’ the population with IMO a ‘bioweapon’, we keep going with these mRNA vaccines. This vaccine functions as a bioweapon. These vaccines have had no benefit, skews only to harm and again, do not, under no condition, give your children these vaccines.
And:
Smallpox vaccine to prevent monkeypox (MONEYpox) could cause global smallpox (vaccinia) epidemic; I warn, don’t be stupid, understand you have damaged immune systems of (b)illions with COVID vaccines
Experts are saying smallpox vax 85% effective in monkey pox; however, this is NOT good news, for millions/billions are now immunocompromised from COVID vax…
The scare and risk from monkeypox is IMO simply that. Scare tactic, over-reaction, hyperbole. It is a defined population at elevated risk (MSM, close contact) and not elevated risk of severe outcome if you do get it.
In a certain sense, if showing symptoms etc. it is a reasonable step to ‘isolate’ close contacts and those showing overt symptoms, but you keep that localized to the high-risk community and if you are not constrained by WOKE politically correct madness, then with acute surveillance and contact tracing and proper PSAs to the high-risk GAY and bi-sexual groups, then you can tamp this down and keep it from expanding to the general low-risk population. It is when you play woke politically correct games, afraid to hurt the pink fluffy tender peelings, yes, I said ‘PEELINGS’, of the bi-sexual and tranny freak perverted communities, that you place the low-risk heterosexual populations at risk. With epidemiological confluence and expansion.
see my paper I wrote in 2021 warning Pfizer to leave our children alone with the fraud deadly Malone Bourla Bancel Weissman, Sahin et al. mRNA technology gene-injection (Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech)
We need to wake to EFF up, children do not pass away from COVID or whatever that was, that fraud of a fake non-pandemic…as Kirsch said para unvaccinated kids do not die of heart attacks…
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Biden and Harris Biden appointed Sam Brinton, nuclear engineer and transvestite, to the position of Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Office of Nuclear Energy. Yes that sexual deviant….Sam B
This is where are now in the US military, sorting out painting warheads and missiles with queer colours, while the Taliban and ISIS plots ways to cut our phucking heads off and bury us and blow us up, we are fixated on men in girl’s bathrooms, men pretending to be women dancing on polls wit heir nutsacks hanging out and rainbow colors on missiles in the name of ‘WOKE’ and ‘inclusion’.
Could we win any serious war?
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is the very phucking best Biden and Harris felt could represent America at senior positions…’Brinton did not give off the air of a deeply serious man.
He only lasted six months, getting fired after stealing a woman’s luggage at an airport so he could wear her panties or something.’
This is very serious talk. This is the US government’s very best under Biden and Harris.
‘Still, everyone wondered, what the hell was this circus freak doing in a senior position – just two steps below the head of the organization responsible for the Department of Energy’s nuclear program? Sure, he wasn’t in charge of nuclear weapons. Just spent fuel and waste disposal. Which is no big deal. It’s one of the most potentially deadly problems faced by the civilian nuclear industry.’
Japan Links Covid Shots to 201 Dangerous DiseasesResearchers in Japan have issued a red alert after making a “shocking” discovery, warning the public that Covid mRNA shots are now “affecting every possible aspect of human pathology.”READ MORE
Judge Rules Election Officials CAN’T Reject Online Voter Registrations with Electronic Signatures in ArkansasObama-appointed Judge Timothy L. Brooks has potentially paved the way for voter fraud in Arkansas. On Thursday, Judge Brooks decided that Arkansas election officials must accept online voter registration applications signed with digital or electronic signatures for the upcoming election. This ruling overturns a previous requirement that called for handwritten signatures to verify voter authenticity. This ruling comes as a …READ THE FULL REPORT
JUST IN: Biden Administration Approves $380M for DHS to Support MigrantsThe Biden administration announced last week that it will allocate $380 million to nonprofits and local governments to help cover costs related to caring for migrants after their release by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) at the southern border. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is distributing the massive $380 million through its Shelter and Services Program (SSP). This …READ THE FULL REPORT
JUST IN: Judge Orders Trump to Stop Using Isaac Hayes’s “Hold On, I’m Coming”On September 3, a federal judge in Atlanta issued a preliminary injunction ordering the Trump campaign to stop using Isaac Hayes’s song “Hold On, I’m Coming” at their rallies. The R&B song has often been played in the closing portion of former President Donald Trump’s rallies. The presidential campaign for the GOP nominee said that it respects the bench ruling …READ THE FULL REPORT
Judge Halts Ohio Law Banning Foreign Nationals From Funding Ballot CampaignsU.S. District Judge Michael Watson has issued a ruling blocking an Ohio law that was scheduled to take effect on September 1, citing that it violates the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. In an act signed by Ohio Governor Mike DeWine this summer, state legislators extended a law that already prohibited foreign nationals from contributing to political candidates, now …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
When Fiscal And Monetary Policy Join At The Hip, Markets Can Be Told What To Do… Or To Do Nothing
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 10:15 AM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Final Destination
Yesterday, stocks were mostly down, but Nividia was up after refuting its DOJ subpoena story; oil lower after an aborted rally; Treasury yields down as the US curve disinverted; and JPY up.
The Fed’s Beige Book noted consumer spending ticked lower in most Districts, activity “grew slightly” in three, and was flat or declined in nine, with isolated reports of firms only filling necessary positions, reducing hours and shifts, or lowering employment levels via attrition, even if layoffs were rare, wage growth modest, and input costs and selling price rises slight to moderate.
More focus was placed on JOLTS job openings at 7,673K vs 8,100K consensus, with the last print revised from 8,184K to 7,910K. However, as Zerohedge underlined, this survey represents just 0.8% of all US establishments, with only one in three of the small number of firms in the survey replying. Moreover, JOLTS relative to those unemployed is now back to where it was pre Covid, which was considered high at the time.
The BOC cut rates 25bp again to take the base rate to 4.25%, while promising more to come, but as Christian Lawrence and Molly Schwartz note, the Bank was keen to highlight decisions will be made meeting by meeting and are data dependent, with two opposing forces likely to impact the policy path: on the upside, shelter inflation and some services; on the downside, excess supply and labour market slack. The same is true in many locations. We expect two more BOC 25bp rate cuts this year to 3.75% by year end, and four 25bp cuts in 2025 to a terminal rate of 2.75%.
In short, the direction of travel is perhaps clear, but the final destination isn’t, at least relative to what the market is pricing for.
Meanwhile, in Canada, expect political turbulence. A federal election looms in 2025, and PM Trudeau just saw the New Democratic Party which helps keep his minority Liberal government in power withdraw its support. Trudeau will now have to find new alliances to govern.
Incredulously for those in every other democracy, tomorrow marks the start of early voting ahead of the US 5 November election ‘day’. Presumably, some voters don’t need to wait for the Harris-Trump debate, because it’s not like these can ever provide fresh angles(!); nor do they need to wait to see if key policy pledges change over time. Yet Harris is now lowering her proposed capital gains tax to 28%. Could there be electoral implications from President Biden saying he will block the proposed Nippon Steel takeover of Pennsylvania-based US Steel (on national security grounds) if, as US Steel says, without it jobs in this key swing state are “at risk”?
Showing this is going to be a looong two months: a prominent New York Democrat and several conservative media figures were accused of being influenced by China or Russia – they forgot Iran, which has influence elsewhere; Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk platformed an historian who says Churchill was a greater WW2 villain than Hitler, and the Holocaust was a catering error; and student protesters at Columbia demanded the “total collapse of the university structure and the American empire itself”; “to undermine and eradicate America as we know it”; and “unrest and violence in America.” We aren’t in Kansas anymore, Toto.
Although it isn’t a benchmark, the betting site Polymarket this morning in Asia had the odds of a Trump win at 53%.
With those kinds of headlines, it’s no coincidence the Financial Times has a long read today on ‘How national security has transformed economic policy’. One should read it; but let me add two things:
First, we made this call in January 2016. We flagged the US-China trade war a year before it started. We talked of Great Power struggles in 2018. We projected a ‘World of 2030’ in 2020. We warned Russia wasn’t joking about invading Ukraine in January 2022. And we flagged that the Suez Canal could be a victim of October 7 days after that attack. In short, we don’t just say “geopolitics.”
Second, this has vastly further to run. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have been transformative there. On Ukraine, obviously; yet Russia is now running a war economy, as some talk of a thanatopathic “Deathocracy” cultural shift to jihadi-style see-you-in-heaven mentality and staggering financial rewards for a soldier’s death; and Israel’s finance minister states its war vs. Hamas could cost 13% of GDP – before a potential escalation vs. Hezbollah and/or Iran.
Yet the US is still seeing real terms declines in its defence budget despite constant warnings of the looming dangers of this approach. The Wall Street Journal now bewails ‘The US Navy’s Chief Supplier Is in Peril’, and that a lack of crew mothballing of 17 sealift support ships will “embolden America’s foes.” Supply chains are not just about getting goods to shoppers, but to choppers. The ‘geopolitical’ bill to do so is going to be enormous.
Worse, Süddeutsche Zeitung reports Germany argues bridge and highway repairs are defence spending as public roads are used to transport tanks. In July, it declared €91bn in NATO spending, over the 2% target for the first time since the early 1990s. However, only €52bn was assigned to defence in its domestic budget, which included weapons for Ukraine, while much of the rest went on paperwork and pensions. Yes, good infrastructure is vital in war: the US interstate highway network was a Cold War response to ensure its troops could reach either coast in an emergency, while early European railways had military as much as commercial goals. However, these both went hand in hand with a military – having nice roads and no army just makes you easier to invade! In short, Germany, and most of Europe, aren’t taking things seriously yet. The EU needs to spend at least 3% of GDP, and much more of it on procurement, for decades. We already estimated the enormous annual cost of a “strategic autonomy” push: up to 6% of GDP, for years.
History is clear on how much more extreme geopolitics can get vis-à-vis markets even before we see war economies or war.
What starts off as trying to limit access to one kind of “strategic” good can widen into limiting access to all of them as whatever helps a civilian economy helps a military one directly or indirectly; tariffs can go much higher; subsidies can rise much further; full trade embargos can appear; and neutral countries can be dragged in, even to the extent of physical blockades on their ports, or at sea.
On the capital side, sanctions can be tightened against one party; but, as we flagged early, have to also be applied to third parties vigorously to be effective; capital controls can be introduced; and assets seized.
Commodities can be stockpiled by states; or stockpiles confiscated; and their trading ranges can be restricted, price- and geography-wise.
Moreover, fiscal and monetary policy can join at the hip, and markets can be told what to do, or to do nothing.
If any of the above were to be our final destination, then the market volatility we have seen so far from “geopolitics” is just the beginning. That remains true even if the near-term focus remains whether we see Fed rate cuts, RATE CUTS, or RATE CUTS!
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/
Brazil/Elon Musk
END
BRAZIL
END
VENEZUELA/USA
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1106 UP 0.0027
USA/ YEN 143.51 UP 0.176 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NO 2 DISINTEGRATES//YEN CARRY TRADE FINISHED
GBP/USA 1.3172 UP 0.0029
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3510 UP .0002 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 4.04 PTS OR 0.14%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.38%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 13.04 PTS OR 0.07 %
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UPP 4.04 PTS OR 0.14%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.38%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1,638.70 PTS OR 4.25%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2515.60
silver:$28.71
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 101.07 DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0881 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.0881)
TURKISH LIRA: 33.96 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.871
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.737% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.051 DOWN 7 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.752 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2518.30
SILVER AT 11;00: 29.09
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 27.99 PTS OR .07%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 15.35 PTS OR 0.08%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 69.01 PTS OR 0.92%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 59.60 OR 0.53%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 2.54 OR 0.01
WTI Oil price 70.13 12EST/
Brent Oil: 73.40 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 89.51 ROUBLE DOWN 2 AND 00/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.208DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.949 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 2.999 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1104 UP 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3173 UP 0.0030 OR 30 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.9160 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.877
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.41 UP 0.071 YEN DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3512 DOWN 0.0001//CDN dollar UP 1 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.31
Brent OIL: 72.78
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 3.730
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.021%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT 3.750
CDN 10 YR RATE 2.990 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 101.06 DOWN 23 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33,94 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 88.25 DOWN 0 AND 75/100 roubles
GOLD 2,515.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 28.80 3;30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 230..36 PTS OR 0.56%
NASDAQ UP 8.93 PTS OR 0.047 %
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.16 DOWN 1.16 PTS OR 5.44%
GLD: $232.35 UP 1.92 OR 0.83%
SLV/ $26.23 UP 0.55 OR 2.15%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Jobless Claims Data Refuses To Accept ‘Hard Landing’ Scenario…
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 08:38 AM
Initial jobless claims continues to ignore the ‘other crappy data’, printing 227k (in line with 230k exp) and basically unchanged at two-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, initial claims are at their lowest in 10 months!! Of course! Why not.
Continuing claims also dropped (to three month lows)…
Source: Bloomberg
So, everything is awesome!
Your government-supplied data tells you so!
end
ADP Employment Report Weakest Since Jan 2021
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 08:23 AM
Ahead of tomorrow’s “most important data point in history” payrolls print, this morning we get the ADP employment report and jobless claims (and ISM Services) as an aperitif to tease the day traders and test the reaction functions of the algos.
Against expectations of adding 145k jobs (a slight improvement over July’s 122k), ADP’s Employment report printed a dismal +99k for August – the weakest print since January 2021 (and July’s +122k was revised down to +111k)…
Source: Bloomberg
That is also the fifth straight monthly decline in the ADP employment report’s jobs additions.
The highest-paying jobs segments including Manufacturing and Professional Services saw the largest job declines…
This was the weakest Services job growth since March 2023 as Manufacturing job growth also slowed…
“The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.
“The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown.”
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as a reminder, ADP has underestimated the official BLS data for 10 of the last 12 months…
Source: Bloomberg
So jobs growth weak (great news for the doves) but wage growth has stopped is disinflatinary trend (not a great picture).
Stagflation anyone?
end
We continue to pound the table that soft data is terribly compromised. Pay no attention to it
(zerohedge)
US Services Surveys Confirm “Baffle ‘Em With Bull$hit” Season Is Back…
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 10:07 AM
After the disaster that was the Manufacturing surveys earlier in the week, the Services surveys are the ‘soft landing’-narrative-believers last great hope ahead of tomorrow’s all-important payrolls print to save the day.
S&P Global’s Services PMI jumped from its flash print of 55.2 to a final August print of 55.7 (up from the 55.0 in July) – that is the highest since March 2022.
ISM Services rose from 51.4 to 51.5 (barely beating the 51.4 expectations)
And all that ‘soft’ data improving as ‘hard’ data languishes…
Source: Bloomberg
ISM’s survey saw new orders improve, employment worsen and prices paid rise…
Commenting on the S&P Gloabl data, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said:
“An improvement in the headline services PMI to its highest for nearly two-and-a-half years provides further encouraging evidence that the US economy is enjoying robust economic growth in the third quarter, adding to signs of a ‘soft landing’.
So everything’s awesome!? Why cut rates?
“The faster service sector expansion means the PMI surveys are signalling GDP growth of 2-2.5% in the third quarter.
At the same time, the August survey data signaled a further cooling of selling price inflation, notably in the service sector, which has now eased close to the average seen prior to the pandemic and a level consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
But – it;s a big circular joke…
“Services growth has been buoyed in particular by the prospect of lower interest rates, but there are several headwinds which could dampen growth in the months ahead. Business optimism and investment is being subdued by uncertainty regarding the outcome of the Presidential Election. Hiring is meanwhile being constrained by labor shortages, which also continue to put upward pressure on wages.
So wait – the survey is soaring because people expect rate cuts… which wont happen if the surveys are too strong? Reflexivity, anyone?
“However, perhaps more worryingly, the recent downturn in manufacturing activity is showing some signs of spilling over to the broader economy, notably via stalled orders for industrial services.
“It will therefore be important to monitor whether the service sector succumbs to the recent weakening of factory activity or whether looser monetary policy creates a rising tide to lift all boats.”
As always, baffle ’em with bullshit is back America! What elese would you expect in an election year.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
To be expected!
75% Of Midtown NYC Arrests Are Illegals; Veteran Prosecutor Blames “Pathetic” Sanctuary City Laws
Wednesday, Sep 04, 2024 – 08:00 PM
In yet another headline you won’t see from corporate media, 75% of those arrested in Midtown Manhattan in recent months for crimes like assault, robbery, and domestic violenceare migrants.
In Queens, it’s around 60%, the NY Post reports, citing police sources.
On any given day, Big Apple criminal court dockets are packed with asylum seekers who have run afoul of the law.
The problem is made much worse by sanctuary city laws that mean New York cops aren’t allowed to work with ICE on cases in which they believe suspects are in the country illegally. Additionally, the NYPD says it is barred from tracking the immigration status of offenders.
According to the report, the sanctuary city laws make it ‘almost impossible’ for authorities to handle the problem.
“New York City eliminated a tool to get rid of violent criminals. What a mess,” said Jim Quinn, a veteran former prosecutor at the Queens District Attorney’s Office.
“The sanctuary city law is pathetic. It’s disgusting. It’s crazy.”
Compounding matters, police sources say that word has gotten out among the migrant community about NYC’s soft-on-crime policies which kicks criminals back onto the street quickly after they’re arrested.
And even if they do end up serving time, one Bronx cop told the Post: “They don’t care if they get arrested — they laugh if they get sent to Rikers. Where they come from, they get tortured in jail.”
The problem is so bad that Democrat Mayor Eric Adams has called on the City Council to change the sanctuary city laws – saying last week: “Right now, we don’t have the authorization to be able to go and coordinate with ICE. We have to follow the law.”
According to a NYPD spokesperson, overall crime may be down last year, however they confirmed that “police officers are prohibited from asking about the immigration status of crime victims, witnesses, or suspects and therefore the NYPD doesn’t track data pertaining to immigration statuses.”
“I would say about 75% of the arrests in Midtown Manhattan are migrants, mostly for robberies, assaults, domestic incidents and selling counterfeit items,” one Midtown officer told the outlet.
He said the figure is an estimate because “you can’t be 100% sure [they’re migrants] unless you arrest them in a shelter or they’re dumb enough to give you a shelter address.”
Another Manhattan cop said that excluding petty larcenies at drugstores, the number of local arrests involving migrants is “easily” 75%, noting that most who get caught shoplifting go more for the pricey branded goods.
“They can’t be bothered with lower-end stores. They like Lululemon and Sunglass Hut,” said the Manhattan cop, adding that migrants are responsible for “most” of the pickpocketing and similar crimes that the NYPD encounters.
Undercover officers arrest pickpocket suspects in Manhattan. Many migrant pickpocket rings now operate in NYC. The migrants are housed and fed by taxpayers while stealing from them and claiming to be peaceful refugees. pic.twitter.com/pJxXH4ESmz
Meanwhile in the courts, “there are days we have so many migrant cases, we have to call in for extra Spanish interpreters,” said one law enforcement officer at the Queens Criminal Courthouse. Another told The Post: “Come on Mondays! Almost every case is a migrant.”
Venezuelan migrant Yurlex Daniel Guzman Quintero was arraigned in Queens Criminal Court on Aug. 28, accused of a deplorable act of sexual abuse against his girlfriend in which he viciously choked her and held a knife to her head. Court documents allege it all happened in front of her child.
The same day, migrant Dionisio Moran Flores was arraigned in Manhattan Criminal Court for allegedly raping his 5-year-old daughter. He was ordered held on $150,000 bail. -NY Post
The Post also notes that Venezuelan prison gang Tren de Aragua, which has been terrorizing citizens around the country, has also set up shop in NYC and are already tied to hundreds of crimes – including the shootings of two NYPC officers who were trying to arrest a member in June. The gang has been arming up – smuggling guns into city-run shelters in food delivery bags in an effort to evade metal detectors.
“Most of the people we arrest are professionals — these aren’t their first crimes,” said one law enforcement source, who added that Biden-Harris open border policies combined with sanctuary city laws are responsible for the current situation.
“Crime would be down significantly if there was a wall and we could account for everyone who comes into the country,” the source told The Post. “And more importantly, throw them out if they commit a crime.”
END
ATIC is a huge tax cab insurer. They have lost 700 million last year and cannot pay its bills.
Should be an interesting final 13 weeks in New York.
(zerohedge)
NY Taxi Insurer American Transit Lost $700 Million In Q2 And Is Delaying Payouts
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 01:55 PM
Carlos Quiles was injured when his Uber driver crashed in May 2022. Now he’s in the midst of a ‘nightmare’ trying to recoup the insurance money necessary to pay for his medical bills, according to a new report from Bloomberg.
He told Bloomberg: “From the very beginning, it was a nightmare. Each and every time you call, it’s at least 30 minutes hold time. And they either hang up on you or they transfer you to someone else.”
His driver lost control of his Toyota while swatting away an obstruction on the windshield. And Quiles, who needed surgery on his left shoulder due to the accident, is still awaiting payments from American Transit Insurance Co., the driver’s insurer. His lawyer has been negotiating with the New York-based company for nearly two years.
The Bloombergreport notes that many others also share frustrations with American Transit (ATIC), the largest insurer of commercial taxis and rideshare vehicles in the city, holding over 60% market share.
Even Uber Technologies Inc. is suing ATIC in federal court, accusing it of repeatedly failing to honor coverage for New York City rideshare drivers involved in accidents.
Uber claims these delays led to 23 lawsuits against the company and its drivers over crashes involving bodily injuries between May and August 2023. ATIC attorneys deny the allegations, but the lawsuit continues as the insurer faces financial trouble, reporting over $700 million in losses in the second quarter, prompting state regulatory intervention.
ATIC’s Chief Financial Officer, Christopher Ryan, and other company representatives did not respond to requests for comment, nor did the lawyers representing the taxi driver in the Quiles case. The company posted $700 million in losses in Q2, “breaching thresholds that require state regulators to intervene”, Bloomberg wrote.
The report said that since 2021, a third-party actuary reviewing ATIC’s financial statements for the National Association of Insurance Commissioners has repeatedly stated that the company’s reserves are inadequate, a view disputed by ATIC’s executives.
Without new capital, ATIC risks being unable to pay claims or insure drivers, threatening the city’s transportation network, which relies on over 117,000 cabs. Even if another insurer steps in, drivers could face higher premiums.
Drivers insured by ATIC currently pay $4,000 to $6,000 annually, depending on factors like experience and claims history—rates competitors argue don’t match the risk. Fleet owner Dawood Mian warns that if ATIC raises premiums, costs could increase by 30%, further straining an industry already burdened by rising expenses and heavy debt from falling medallion values.
Meanwhile, drivers protested outside City Hall against Uber and Lyft for reducing their access mid-shift to fight a minimum wage rule, cutting their earnings.
New York’s Division of Financial Services is “working with the company and other stakeholders to address these longstanding financial issues, and protect drivers, passengers and the stability of the New York livery insurance market”, according to the report.
Raising capital gains taxes will kill an economy
(zerohedge)
“Selling Frenzy”: You Don’t Need Unrealized Gains Tax, Just Lifting Capital Gains Tax Will Unleash Hell
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 09:05 AM
There has been much talk of the calamitous possibility that Kamala Harris will implement an unrealized gains tax if she is elected, effectively short-circuiting one of the core precepts of capitalism: the impetus for enterpreneurs to create value out of nothing, and to cash out on their own terms. Well, spoiler alert: an unrealized gains tax has a zero chance of ever happening, and would require not just Democrats but their progressive communist wing to sweep Congress to ram such a revolutionary overhaul to the US tax system, one which would almost single-handedly blow up the US economy and capital markets.
But the truth is that one doesn’t even need something as unorthodox as unrealized gains tax to crush trillions in value: merely hiking the capital gains tax would be perfectly sufficient to spark a chaotic firesale, as the UK is gradually learning.
As the FT reports, fears that the socialist UK government will raise capital gains tax in its October Budget are driving a “frenzy” of activity by business owners, property investors and shareholders, according to wealth managers and tax experts.
Last week the country’s new PM Keir Starmer, gave the strongest signal yet that the Labour administration will raise taxes to close a £22bn “black hole” in the public finances at the October 30 budget.
“There’s a Budget coming in October and it’s going to be painful,” Starmer said in a speech last Tuesday, and like any good socialist, added that “those with the broadest shoulders should bear the heavier burden.”
In kneejerk response, several advisers told the FT that their asset-owning clients were “worried about potential increases in capital gains tax — particularly as Labour ruled out raising national insurance, income tax or VAT in the run-up to July’s general election.”
“It is a frenzy”, said Tim Stovold, partner at Moore Kingston Smith, an accountancy firm, who reported inquiries about selling assets, due to worries about tax rises, had rocketed since the election.
Capital gains on assets including businesses, second homes and shares are currently taxed at between 10 and 28% — lower than the 20 to 45% levied on income.
Miles Dean, partner and head of international tax at Andersen, said his clients with real estate, company shares and crypto assets had been pushing to sell them and pay tax at the existing rates for at least 18 months “ever since it became clear that Labour were going to get into power.”
The scramble to sell became a liquidation avalanche once the new cabinet made it clear what its tax plans were: Nimesh Shah, chief executive at advisory firm Blick Rothenberg, said the prime minister’s statement had prompted a “significant number of queries in the last 24 hours”.
Several clients who own businesses were pushing “through business sale transactions way in advance of when they would have, with an urgency to complete”, added Ian Cook, financial planner at Quilter Cheviot. Cook said he knew of a number of property investors who were in the “throes of liquidating property portfolios”. Most of them had started selling down their assets as soon as the new government was confirmed. Investment properties owners who had not yet started selling would find it difficult to complete before the October Budget, Cook warned.
“For both property owners and entrepreneurs, there’s a lead time. You don’t put it on eBay and then it’s gone in a week,” he said erroneously: anything will sell on eBay in a week, or even a day, if the seller is motivated enough, i.e., if the price is low enough.
Stovold agreed that some people were “losing their common sense” and looking at accelerating sales of assets that they had intended to hold for at least the next 10 years. He added that there would be tax raising benefits for the government of letting the CGT “rumours run rife”.
Overall the uncertainty was unhelpful for businesses and their owners, said Mike Hodges, partner at accountancy firm Saffery.
“Causing people to act in haste doesn’t feel like the best way to create the confidence and stability around the tax system that will encourage people to invest,” he said. “With two months still to go until the Budget, we don’t want to encourage a fire sale mentality.”
We bring that up because with exactly two months until the election, we finally got some more details on one of Kamala Harris’ primary economic policies, and it pretty much assures that the selling panic seen now in the UK will very soon jump the Atlantic.
Speaking at an event in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, Kamala Harris – still silent on the idea of a taxing unrealized gains – called for a 28% capital gains tax rate on people earning $1 million or more, touting it as a measure that would ensure the wealthy paid their fair share as she sought to detail her economic agenda and draw a contrast with Donald Trump.
“While we ensure that the wealthy and big corporations pay their fair share, we will tax capital gains at a rate that rewards investment in America’s innovators, founders and small businesses,” Harris said Wednesday at an event in Portsmouth, New Hampshire.
To this date, nobody – not even the socialists – have defined what “fair” means, besides of course, some random number they believe is… well… fair.
The Democratic presidential nominee’s proposal falls short of the 39.6% rate that President Joe Biden has embraced, marking her efforts to chart an economic vision separate from the sitting president in an election in which voters’ skepticism of the administration’s handling of the economy threatens to weigh down her ticket. The current capital gains tax rate is 20%.
Harris in recent weeks has sought to roll out her agenda, seeking to convince voters to trust her on the economy and to assure them that she will work to curb the high prices that have hit US households hard under the current administration.
Her proposals have included calls for expanded tax credits for parents and $25,000 down-payment assistance for first-time home buyers. Harris plans to pay for those tax cuts by increasing the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, imposing a minimum income tax on billionaires and quadrupling a levy on stock buybacks, according to a campaign official who spoke on condition of anonymity to detail policy discussions.
Harris has vowed to pay for all of her spending plans – of which there are plenty – with higher taxes on businesses and wealthy households.
Harris also detailed plans to expand small business tax relief for entrepreneurs. Her blueprint calls for increasing the small business tax deduction for startup costs tenfold to $50,000 from $5,000. And the vice president is setting a goal of 25 million new small business applications in the first term of a potential Harris administration, a tally that would surpass the record 19 million so far under Biden, of which the vast majority are fraudulent and meant to facilitate PPP fraud as we have explained previously on multiple occasions.
Fraudulent small business creation over the past 4 years (to illegally benefit from PPP loans) is why the US labor market is such a mess (near record downward job revisions) with the Birth/Death indicator the most inaccurate it has ever been https://t.co/PT817HXmXt
“As president one of my highest priorities will be to strengthen America’s small businesses,” Harris said, stealing even more policy promises from Donald Trump.
Harris’ policy rollout comes a little over a month after she entered the presidential race and with about two months until Election Day. The vice president has seen a surge in momentum in the polls and fundraising but is still seeking to counter Trump on the economy, an issue on which polls show voters trust the former president more.
On the campaign trail, Harris’ surrogates have sought to pitch her as a pro-business candidate to donors to assuage concerns over the Biden administration’s policies.
“Her vision is pro-capitalism, pro-innovation, pro-growth, you know, lots of employment, lots of housing. It’s just forward looking,” her husband Doug Emhoff lied to donors at an event last month, because while Kamala may lie through her teeth now, the reality remains that she was and is the kamala liberal Democrat, left even of Bernie Sanders.
Meanwhile, Trump has called for a series of tax cuts on corporations, individuals and retirees.
In any case, whoever wins the White House in November will contend with a major tax bill next year with parts of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts on households and small businesses set to expire at the end of 2025. But even before then it will get messy: the US is currently adding about $100 billion in new debt every month, which is why US debt, which just hit a record high, will surpass $36 trillion by year end.
US debt up $64 billion in 1 day to start the month of September, to a record high of $35.3 trillion.
And then there is the problem with interest expense: it was $1 billion daily before covid, $2 billion during, and $3 billion in interest on the US debt every day today. Something tells us this number will never really go down, because even if interest rates drop materially, the US will just borrow that much more…
end
Democrats are now attacking Jill Stein….must be desperate
(zerohedge)
The Democrats’ Attacks Against Jill Stein Show How Desperate They’re Getting
The Democrats have all of a sudden zeroed in on Green Party leader Jill Stein in the latest sign that they’re getting desperate.
Most polls had previously claimed that Kamala was leading Trump, but cynics suspected that this was all part of the party’s coronation of their new candidate after Biden dropped out. The truth is now coming out after even pro-Democrat Newsweek felt compelled to headline a recent article about how “Kamala Harris’ Lead Over Trump Being ‘Steadily Cut’—Poll” so as to retain some credibility.
Three factors have worked against her faux lead and inevitably exposed it as fraudulent:
Americans haven’t forgotten how Trump miraculously survived an assassination attempt this summer;
influential former Democrats RFK and Tulsi Gabbard endorsed him; and
The first even inspired lifelong Democrat Mark Zuckerberg to praise Trump as a “badass”; RFK and Tulsi command a lot of sway among dissident Leftists; and Americans remembered how inept Kamala is.
The confluence of these aforesaid factors is responsible for the Democrats attacking Stein all of a sudden despite having hitherto held off on doing so out of fear that it would give her free publicity. Trump’s real lead (i.e. not the manipulated polling put out by Democrat cut-outs) might already be “too big to rig” or is rapidly approaching that level. Stein might also once again siphon votes from disgruntled Leftists and thus lead to him winning back the presidency, which is the Democrats’ worst nightmare.
They’ve proven themselves unable to effectively counteract the three factors working against Kamala’s faux lead so their backup plan is to attack Stein like AOC and DNC spokesman Matt Corridoni began doing earlier this week. The first claimed that she’s “not serious”, “not authentic”, and “just predatory” in the sense that she could take enough votes from the Democrats to make a difference, while the latter defamed her as “a useful idiot for Russia” whose “spoiler candidacy” can help Trump win.
Neither would have crossed the Rubicon, let alone at the same time and not to mention given their influential roles in the party, had they not thought (or perhaps been told by the party elite) that the expected benefits outweigh the predictable detriments. They’re giving her free publicity, which could further amplify her ideas among dissident Leftists and thus lead to her siphoning off more votes from the Democrats, but with the goal in mind of ultimately scaring some of her supporters away too.
The fact of the matter though is that those who support Stein are already aware of these two information warfare narratives against her but don’t care since they see their vote for her as a form of protest against the Democrats and the US’ political system more broadly. They’re therefore not going to be scared away like AOC and Corridoni expect, but those two might have an ulterior motive in mind in going on the attack, or at least those who might have told them to do that could have such intentions.
It was explained late last month in this analysis here about why “The Justice Department’s Crackdown On Russian Media’s American Affiliates Is Frightening” that efforts are underway to concoct another Russiagate conspiracy theory for discrediting Trump’s potential victory and sabotaging his next term. To that end, the FBI raided the homes of Scott Ritter and Dimitri Simes, and unnamed administration sources told the New York Times that more people might soon be raided on this pretext too.
The abovementioned analysis concluded that “[Trump’s] actual lead might result in a victory that’s ‘too big to rig’ if it stays on track, hence the need to preemptively manufacture a backup plan”, which could be complemented by the Democrats’ attacks Stein in order to more compellingly concoct their narrative. It should be mentioned that these attacks followed her announcing that she’d attend a rally in support of the Uhuru 3, whose Russiagate-like case readers can learn more about from one of them here.
The narrative threads have yet to be explicitly connected, but one scenario is that the FBI’s latest raids and the Democrats’ sudden attacks against Stein are meant to lend false credence to another Russiagate conspiracy theory for discrediting Trump’s “too big to rig” lead in the event that he wins. The FBI raids can’t do this on their own, nor the Democrats’ attacks against Stein, hence the need to pair them together and perhaps include another forthcoming but as-yet unknown element into this mix.
After all, it was already explained how the Democrats’ attacks against Stein will only give her free publicity and risk more dissident Leftists defecting from their party to hers, but this interpretation reconceptualizes everything by enabling the Democrats to then blame it all on Russia. Her public support for the Uhuru 3 coupled with the latest attacks against her and the FBI’s raids could combine to make a remixed Russiagate scenario more believable to a greater segment of the population than the first one.
If Trump’s lead is “too big to rig” like was argued throughout this analysis might already be the case or rapidly approaching that level, then the Democrats’ fallback plan could be to craft this narrative as a last-ditch effort to influence some electors into not voting for him, or at least till everything is “investigated”. Stein is going to carry some percentage of the vote like she always does whenever she runs, and if Trump’s lead is “too big to rig”, then there’s logic in attributing her “spoiler vote” to “Russian influence”.
To be clear, Stein and all other third-party candidates have the right to run for president, and this shouldn’t be discredited. That said, sour Democrats are known to resort to the dirtiest tricks to smear their opponents instead of taking their electoral losses in a sportsmanlike manner. Blaming Trump’s potential return to office on “Russian-backed Stein” and relying on “evidence” obtained from the FBI’s raids of Russian media’s American affiliates, the Uhuru 3 case, and whatever else is therefore possible.
It remains to be seen whether these threads are explicitly connected by that party or not, and there’s always a chance that their elite might decide not to go through with this for whatever reason, but it’s still plausible enough to be taken seriously and that’s why all Americans should be on alert. As Election Day nears and Trump’s lead over Kamala grows, or hers over him slips as some Mainstream Media outlets might frame it so as to retain some credibility, the Democrats will become more desperate than ever.
END
Intel
Is the worst over: for the past year they have been clobbered
(zerohedge)
Worst Finally Over? Intel To Move Forward With Assessing Strategic Transactions This Month
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 06:55 AM
The dumpster fire at Intel under the direction of CEO Pat Gelsinger, who is doing his best to replace Marissa Mayer as most overpaid and useless ‘turnaround’ CEO in tech history, looks like it could finally wind up being put out as a result of the company assessing strategic alternatives.
But the damage has surely been done. Intel stock has fallen about -56% this year so far while competitor Nvidia has soared more than 141% over the same period. Over a 5 year period, it gets even uglier: Intel has plunged -53.4% while Nvidia is up an astounding 2,750%.
However, past performance is not indicative of future results, and CEO Gelsinger is looking to finally try and claw some value back into Intel shares by proposing a number of strategic transactions to the board later this month, Reuters reported last week.
Gelsinger and top executives plan to propose a strategy to the board later this month to cut non-essential businesses and reduce capital spending, aiming to revitalize the chipmaker, the report says, mimicking a lot of ‘turn around’ talk we’ve heard from Intel during Gelsinger’s tenure over the last 3 years.
The plan includes cost-cutting measures like selling businesses, such as the programmable chip unit Altera, which Intel can no longer support from its dwindling profits, according to a source.
Gelsinger and senior executives are set to present a plan to the board in mid-September to cut costs and streamline operations, the report says.
This plan does not propose splitting Intel or selling its foundry business to a company like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. However, the details are still being finalized and could change before the meeting.
As Reuters notes, Intel has already separated its foundry and design businesses and reports their financials separately to protect client confidentiality. The company is struggling as it lags behind competitors like Nvidia in the AI chip market.
Intel’s market cap has fallen below $100 billion after a poor second-quarter earnings report, while Nvidia’s exceeds $3 trillion.
The new proposal is likely to suggest further cuts in capital spending, possibly halting the $32 billion factory project in Germany, which has faced delays. In August, Intel announced plans to reduce capital spending to $21.5 billion by 2025, down 17% from this year, and issued a weaker-than-expected third-quarter forecast.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
a must read…
(Chris Powell)
What do Connecticut college students mean by ‘free Palestine’?
College is back in session and students are returning not just to their studies but also to protests on campus about the war in Gaza. At the University of Connecticut at Storrs, Yale University in New Haven, and other institutions, students are chanting and carrying signs reading “Free Palestine!”
Journalism not being what it used to be, since literacy and civic engagement aren’t what they used to be either, no one seems to be asking the students exactly what they mean by “Free Palestine!” and how that objective should be achieved.
So how do the student protesters define Palestine? Do they define it as most Palestinians themselves do, as encompassing the land “from the river to the sea” — the land between the Jordan River and Mediterranean — thus liquidating Israel, as Palestinians often have tried to do in war since the area was partitioned into Jewish and Arab sections by resolution of the United Nations in 1948, and as they are doing again now?
Do the student protesters define Palestine as something that leaves room for Israel — a Palestine consisting of Gaza, which Israel evacuated in 2005, and the “occupied West Bank,” the land between Jordan and Israel proper, most of which Israel agreed to evacuate during negotiations sponsored by President Bill Clinton in 2000?
If the student protesters define Palestine as the Clinton plan did, they might want to ask the people on whose behalf they’re protesting why they can’t accept such a compromise even now that the war Gaza launched against Israel last October has brought catastrophic bloodshed and ruin to the territory. The students should explain why Palestinian irredentism is worth so much.
And what do the student protesters mean by “free”? Do they mean civil liberties — speech, press, assembly, religion, due process of law, women’s rights, and sexual orientation — liberties enjoyed in the United States, Western Europe, and Israel, but not in Gaza and West Bank areas under Palestinian control, nor, indeed, anywhere in the Arab world? If that’s what the student protesters mean, they should go to Gaza or the West Bank and try to exercise such freedoms there, after making provision for the transport home of their corpses.
Or do the student protesters understand “free Palestine” as most Palestinians appear to understand it — a land free of Jews, a land free to attack a neighboring state and people, bombarding, murdering, raping, and kidnapping whenever the necessary strength has been regained during another “ceasefire”?
Yes, the war in Gaza is horrifying. But then wars against totalitarians seldom can be won politely. The war against the totalitarian aggressors of World War II, Germany and Japan, were won only by leveling both countries, killing millions of civilians, and then remaking the totalitarian societies through long military occupations.
If the student protesters think there is another way, they should spell it out and offer it to the warring parties. They may find, as Clinton did, that making peace requires more than pious hand-wringing on a peaceful campus oceans away from cutthroats whose hatred and brutality far surpass anything the students can imagine.
*
TREATMENT ISN’T ENOUGH: School officials and social workers report that Connecticut is facing an epidemic of mental illness among young people — not just teens in high school but also children in elementary and middle school. There is clamor for state government to spend more for treatment and school mental health clinics, as if that will solve the problem.
Little attention is being paid to the cause of the youth mental illness epidemic. The recent virus epidemic and its disruption of school and home life is an easy explanation, but that epidemic is long over. Something else must be wrong. Child neglect was already bad when the virus struck. Because inflation has soared since then, real incomes have fallen. That may have worsened neglect.
Treatment isn’t enough. The General Assembly and Governor Lamont should strive to discern and eradicate the causes of youth mental illness.
Chris Powell has written about Connecticut government and politics for many years. (CPowell@cox.net)
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
SWAMP STORIES
Biden will pardon his son
(zerohedge)
Hunter Biden Flips To 11th Hour Guilty Plea In $1.4M Criminal Tax Evasion Case
Thursday, Sep 05, 2024 – 12:11 PM
Hunter Biden’s lawyers announced on Thursday that the first son will plead guilty in his $1.4 million tax evasion case.
“Mr. Biden intends to change his plea this morning,” Hunter’s lawyer Abbe Lowell told the judge in a Los Angeles federal courtroom, with the younger Biden facing trial on nine federal charges for failing to pay federal taxes from 2016 – 2019.
If convicted, Hunter faced up to 17 years behind bars. He currently faces up to 25 years behind bars when he’s sentenced in November for a conviction on gun charges.
As we suspected, traders played for a rebound after Tuesday’s equity wipeout.
ESUs declined sharply during early Nikkei trading on reports that Nvidia received a DoJ subpoena. ESUs hit a daily low of 5506.75 one minute before the 3 ET European open. ESUs plodded high until they hit a peak of 5530.50 5:43 ET. After a retreat to 5515.50 at 7:04 ET, ESUs meandered higher until someone decided to juice them three minutes before the 9:30 ET NYSE opening.
Wednesday’ King Report: Will the entity that kept rescuing stocks during August appear today?
It appears someone did appear to rescue stocks via an ESU manipulation.
After a spike commenced just before the NYSE opening, the dump commenced at 9:41 ET. ESUs dropped from 5544.50 to 5521.00 at 9:59 ET. An ensuing manipulation pushed ESUs to a daily high of 5565.00 at 11:06 ET. Sellers returned, ESUs sank, turned negative, and hit 5535.00 at 11:30 ET. ESUs formed the dreaded ‘Empire State Building Formation.’
After a modest bounce, ESUs headed south again and hit 5531.50 at 12:05 ET. A Noon Balloon took ESUs to 5551.00 at 12:35 ET. Then Biden’s handlers torpedoed the US stocks market.
Biden to block nearly $15B sale of US Steel to Japanese company Nippon despite CEO’s warnings: reporthttps://t.co/0GRghbU7DI (Thousands of union jobs and votes for Dems in PA & MI will be lost)
ESUs sank to 5515.00 at 15:10 ET. A desperate late manipulation pushed ESUs to 5540.00 at 15:51 ET. Sellers reappeared; ESUs fell to 5526.50 at 16:00 ET.
US job openings fall to lowest level (7.673m, 8.1m exp.) since January 2021https://t.co/Ib3hIxIqMI
CBS: More Americans are having to choose between food and energy bills. https://t.co/NWa1Dpykxu
Fed’s Bostic: Economy is ‘losing momentum’ but there is no sense of looming crash or panic from business leadershttps://t.co/uUfhSPyvxl
The Fed Beige Book had a negative economic assessment: “Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period.” https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20240904.pdf
Positive aspects of previous session Someone saved stocks during early NYSE trading and during the last hour of NYSE trading. USUs rallied about 1 point While commodities rallied, oil and gasoline declined modestly
Negative aspects of previous session Biden’s handlers torpedoed the equity rally. Equities declined sharply after the early US rally.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What is the market’s disposition on the Harris-Trump contest?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5525.57 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5552.99; 5503.66
Team Obama-Harris has still NOT posted Kamala’s policy platform on their website. It’s a campaign ‘about nothing’ but feelings.
Fox’s @ChadPergram: Ways/Means Cmte Chair Smith on Fox Business on small business tax deduction proposal by Harris: She’s calling for expiration of that provision that will result in those small businesses having tax rates over 43.4%. That’s almost 20 percentage points above what Communist China charges taxes on their businesses. That doesn’t sound like an opportunity economy. That sounds like an economy of a vice president Harris, who wants to command and control all aspects of small businesses and individuals.
BBG’s @jeneps: The Harris campaign says her proposed 28% capital gains tax on $1 million-plus earners “strikes the right balance” between the current 20% and Biden’s call for 39.6%.
@ABC: Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu doubled down on his position that Israeli forces cannot leave the Philadelphi corridor(against Team Obama’s wishes) and still achieve Israel’s goals of the war in Gaza during a press conference in Jerusalem Wednesday… https://t.co/Zl9GIA6Dok
Today – The S&P 500 low on Tuesday was 5504.33; the low yesterday was 5503.66. The S&P 500 Index 50-day MA is 5606; ergo, 5500 is important support. Trading could be lackluster due to the reversal of the expected bounce and trepidation ahead of the August Employment Report tomorrow.
Biden to Deliver Remarks on Economic Policy at 3PM CDTThurs. – BBG (Why help DJT?)
ESUs declined sharply after 19:00 ET. Someone then pushed ESUs 15 handles higher in 38 minutes.
Expected Economic Data: Aug ADP Employment Change 145k; Q2 Nonfarm Productivity 2.5%, Unit Labor Costs 0.8%; Initial Jobless Claims 230k, Continuing Claims 1.866m; Aug S&P Global US Services PMI 55, Composite PMI 53.9; Aug ISM Services Index 51.2, Prices Paid 56
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5506; 100-day MA: 5372; 150-day MA: 5283; 200-day MA: 5138 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,143; 100-day MA: 39,454; 150-day MA: 39,268; 200-day MA: 38,685 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5528.93 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5274.15 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5684.78 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5577.40 triggers a buy signal
Donald Trump opens up huge lead in key battleground states, according to new poll A new poll from the Democracy Institute (Leans GOP) suggests Trump is in the lead in 10 key battleground states. The poll asked 1,000 likely voters who would be their pick in the battlegrounds of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. https://www.the-express.com/news/politics/147691/donald-trump-leads-battleground-states-poll
@EricLDaugh: Trump GAINED again in Nate Silver’s 2024 electoral college forecast… Trump: 58.2% (+16.6), Harris: 41.6% – NATE SILVER: “In addition to Pennsylvania, Michigan has become something of an issue for Harris.” Baris (People’s Pundit pollster) just said that if current trends he’s seeing among white voters extrapolate to Pennsylvania, Harris is on track to lose the state by more than Clinton lost it in 2016.
@CortesSteve: @MarkHalperin on the latest polling in the key battleground of Pennsylvania: “I talked to two people today, Democrats who know the state very well. They both said that they thought Harris was not only behind in Pennsylvania, but they thought she was likely to lose the state.”
Democracy Institute correctly forecast Brexit and Trump’s 2016 upset; plus, it had Trump +1 over Biden in 2020, the only poll at the time to show DJT with a lead.
@politico: Harris and Trump are… neck and neck in the battleground states, per new CNN/SSRS polls. @normouspenis: D+8 in Georgia is all you need to know how biased this poll is to get these results.
Dems lose ground to GOP contenders in pivotal Senate races as voters lock in: poll Pennsylvania is not the only state where GOP contenders are getting closer… In Arizona, former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake presented a challenge to Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., in the new poll, finishing only three percentage points behind him, 47% to 44%…https://t.co/cUSZTN0aK8
Team Obama-Harris’ panic over Kamala’s polling generated this absurdity:
NBC: Biden administration hits Russia with sanctions over efforts to manipulate U.S. opinion ahead of the election (Not a parody!) Garland accused Konstantin Kalashnikov and Elena Afanasyeva of implementing a nearly $10 million scheme to hire a Tennessee-based company to publish and disseminate pro-Russian content… “The company never disclosed to the influencers or to their millions of followers as ties to RT and the Russian government. Instead, the defendants and the company claimed that the company was sponsored by a private investor, but that private investor was a fictitious persona,” Garland said.. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/biden-administration-hit-russia-sanctions-trying-manipulate-us-opinion-rcna169541
What about the BILLIONS spent by foreign governments to influence US elections and politicians viathink tanks, NGOs, and lobbyists? Iran is the most aggressive ‘interfered.’ Where are sanctions and indictments on Iran for planning to assassinate Trump? @ProfMJCleveland: Did Hunter lose another laptop? Ashley another diary? Everyone with half a brain knows that if Russian is trying to influence our elections, it would do so to benefit Harris.
@JackPosobiec Seems clear the Biden Admin wanted to save all this Russia stuff for October but rushed it out today. Why the rush? Kamala’s internals must be worse than we thought.
Babylon Bee’s @JoelWBerry: If they’re bringing back the “Russia interference” narrative I can only assume that means Kamala’s internal polling is getting really bad.
@BoLoudon: TRUMP JUST EXPOSED THE DOJ FOR VIOLATING THEIR OWN ELECTION POLICY! “DoJ policy is that the Department of Injustice should not take any action that will influence the election within 60 days of that election…The DOJ has violated its own policy… Election interference they call it…Our country has been weaponized by political opponents…” https://x.com/BoLoudon/status/1831421306098905217
Trump campaign officials slam Amazon after ‘error’ in Alexa devices results in pro-Harris biashttps://t.co/jvDJTOJaKf
In response to the Team Obama-Harris attempt to euchre Americans about Russia rigging the election, Elon Musk posted this poster that states, “Don’t let Trump Cheat! Demand voter ID and paper ballots!” https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1831338079766085990
Decades ago, polls reflected opinion. They became vehicles to drive opinion and fund raising. Some allege that rigged polls give cover for vote fraud and election rigging.
Kamala word salad at a rally on Wed: “Let us understand which we do, our purpose at this very moment. Let us remember the broad shoulders upon which we stand and the traditions of this very fight that have led to what we have been able to accomplish.”https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1831428249093861496
@TrumpWarRoom: What could these 12 buses possibly be doing leaving Kamala’s event in New Hampshire? (Team Obama-Harris has been bussing people to her events.) https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1831432259737649466
Biden Sits at Tiny Fake White House Desk – This sums up his presidency Nothing sums this up better than having Biden sit on a fake White House set at a tiny fake desk to deliver a speech of no significance whatsoever… The press were forced out of the room the second he finished reading the script and he answered zero questions…Why isn’t he in the actual White House?.. https://modernity.news/2024/09/04/biden-sits-at-tiny-fake-white-house-desk/
@Geiger_Capital: The Harris campaign sent out an email saying Kamala is against electric vehicle mandates… @AlexThomp of Axios emailed back asking if she would veto *her own bill* that included an electric vehicle mandate… They declined to comment. This is why she’s not doing interviews.
BBG’s @jeneps: Goldman sees US GDP taking a hit if Trump wins and getting a small boost if Harris & Dems sweep bc “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates,” per @AnsteyEco Trump spox responded: “These Wall Street elites would be wise to review the record and acknowledge the shortcomings of their past work if they’d like their new forecasts to be seen as credible.”
GOP Sen. Hawley claims whistleblowers told him that most of the agents at Trump’s assassination attempt were NOT USSS; they were Homeland Security, and their only training was a web seminar! https://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1831130653829513685
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: My letter to Secret Service Director Rowe detailing new whistleblower allegations that Homeland Security agents working the Butler Trump rally received only “webinar” training beforehandhttps://t.co/KQZbgDf7Rs
@GrageDustin: REPORTER: Are you going to take any policy questions? TIM WALZ: *walks away*https://t.co/Zhl1y0HWHs It gets worse. The reporter continues to beg Tim Walz to answer her questions and doesn’t acknowledge her existence… Now he’s dodging reporters. https://t.co/aS9vTnYXpS
Gunman shoots up pro-Trump pastor Greg Locke’s house with children inside in terrifying attackhttps://t.co/SmHAgz9qsx
ABC: 2 students, 2 teachers killed in shooting at Georgia high school, 14-year-old suspect in custodyA 14-year-old suspect is in custody after four people were killed in a shooting at Apalachee High School in Winder, Georgia, on Wednesday… (“20 or so” injured, not certain all are shooting victims) https://abcnews.go.com/US/police-respond-incident-high-school-georgia/story
CNN reports the school via a phone call was warned that there would be a shooting! The 14-year-old suspect in the deadly mass shooting at a Winder, Georgia, high school has been identified as Colt Gray… The high school had received an earlier phone threat, multiple law enforcement officials told CNN. The phone call Wednesday morning warned there would be shootings at five schools, and that Apalachee would be the first…” https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/04/us/winder-ga-shooting-apalachee-high-school/index.html
@greg_price11: The Barrow County, Georgia Sheriff says that the shooter at Apalachee High School today was stopped after being engaged by an armed School Resource Officer. Good guy with a gun saved who knows how many lives.https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1831434045009621054
Biden and Harris quickly and reflexively demanded more gun laws despite the laws the shooter violated.
@DLoesch: It’s reported that the suspect was 14 y/o, waiting for LEO to confirm. No idea re type of weapon used, important, as different age requirements for purchase/carry different types. That said, assuming long gun: – Broken law: under 18 – Broken law: potential theft of weapon – Broken law: carrying on school grounds – Broken law: murder Everything about this is already illegal…
In 2019, Kamala Harris called for the removal of police officers from schools.
Trump calls Georgia school shooter ‘sick and deranged monster’https://rb.gy/ziz478
The Tennessee Star Releases ‘Manifesto’ Left by Transgender Covenant School Killer Audrey Hale Hale confirmed her desire to transition genders, revealed a purported autism diagnosis… and wrote that she once called a phone number associated with a Suicide Prevention Helpline five times in one day. Hale also referenced… her status as a 22-year mental health patient at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, where police documents obtained by The Star reveal she was twice evaluated for commitment… https://tennesseestar.com/news/the-tennessee-star-releases-manifesto-left-by-transgender-covenant-school-killer-audrey-hale/tpappert/2024/09/03/
Reagan movie trounces expectations with blockbuster opening weekend – despite being slammed by liberal criticshttps://trib.al/IEQ32Z0
Some professional sports owners are openly supporting Kamala Harris. Don’t they realize that if Kamala wins and gets her tax on unrealized capital gains that they might have to sell chunks of their teams?
harveyorganblog.com 
