GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $30.45 TO $2582.50

SILVER PRICE UP $0,93 TO $30.67

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2581,40

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.61

Bitcoin morning price:$58,283 DOWN 83 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $59,956 up 1630 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing  UP $19.7 TO $1000,20

Palladium price; UP $24.95 TO $1070,90

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3508,98 UP 36.04 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,508,98CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//SEPT 13 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1,966,85 UP 18,42 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1966,85BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) SEPT 13/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,329,81UP 20.15Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.310.00UROS PER OZ//SEPT 13//.2024)

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END

EXCHANGE: COMEX

XCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,551.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/12/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 09/16/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 20
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 15
661 C JP MORGAN 2
685 C RJ OBRIEN 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 15
905 C ADM 12

---

TOTAL: 38 38

JPMorgan stopped 1/16

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 38 NOTICES FOR 3800 OZ  or  0.1182 TONNES

total notices so far: 3956 contracts for 395,600 Oz (12.304 tonnes)

FOR  SEPT:

SILVER NOTICES: 12 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 60,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 4,836 for 24.180 million oz

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $30.45 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 4,54 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.72 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 880,72 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.93 AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: ..

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.648 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 2281 CONTRACTS TO 132,356 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $1.13 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 4047 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING THURSDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE STRONG GAIN IN PRICE.  WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1766 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY ANOTHER HUGE 1349 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA  HUMONGOUS 4047 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 1347 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.13) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 4598 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1766 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 24.465 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT ADVANCES TO 24.465 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1347 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 551 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS AUGUST ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9 DAYS, total 7212 contracts:   OR 36.060 MILLION OZ  (801 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  36.060 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 36.060 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  2281 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS:1347 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF  22.765 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 60,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO 24.465 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 4047 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1347 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE THURSDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT   (713) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .

WE HAD 12 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 60,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 22,556 OI CONTRACTS  TO 536,025 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 2199 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (22,556 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $37.80 IN PRICE /THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY THURSDAYS STRONG 6500 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  12.634 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $37.80 GAIN N PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 32,352 OI CONTRACTS (100.62 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. WE SHOULD HAVE A FASCINATING TRADING DAY TODAY AND MONDAY WITH RESPECT TO THE T PLUS ONE BASIS OF CENTRAL BANK TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THE FRBNY IS NOW LOOKING INTO AN ABYSS!!!

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 9796  CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 536,025

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 32,352  CONTRACTS  WITH 22,556 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 9796 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 32,352 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A GOOD SIZED 1446 CONTRACTS,

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (9796 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 22,556 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 32,352 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT  12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 6500 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 12.634 TONNES. 

 / 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///GOOD T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1446 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 47,751 CONTRACTS OF 47,75,100 OZ OR 148,52 TONNES IN 9TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5305 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  148.52 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  148.52 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 4,18% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 148.52 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED  2281 CONTRACTS OI  TO 132,907 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1766 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1766 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1766 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 2281 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1766 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4047 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 20.235 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $1.13 GAIN IN PRICE  

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.03 PTS OR 0.48% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.70 PTS OR 0.79% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 251.51 OR 0.68%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.37%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0947CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1030/ Oil UP TO 69.28dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.76Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 22,556 CONTRACTS TO 538,224 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $37.80 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THE MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER CONTAINMENT.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON THURSDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 9796 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  OCT/DEC 29796& ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 9796 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 32,352 CONTRACTS IN THAT 9796 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 22,556 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $37.80/THURSDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE RAIDS ON LAST WEDNESDAY, FRIDAY AND THIS PAST TUESDAY AND FRIDAY WERE ORCHESTRATED BY THE FRBNY AS WE ARE NOW FINISHED WITH OPTIONS EXPIRY FOR THE OTC/LONDON LBMA BETS ENDING LAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE FED’S HUGE SHORT PREDICAMENT THEY STILL HAVE TIME AND ENERGY TO RAID OUR PRECIOUS METALS. SUCH CROOKS!

THESE RAIDS HAVE NOW BACKFIRED ON THE FRBNY.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1466 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING//RAIDS

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   SEPT  (12.634  TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 12.634 TONNES.

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY  $37.80////AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OI OF 107.46 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.885 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF A HUGE SIZED 6500 OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO: 12.634 TONNES.

NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 12.634 TONNES 

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $37.80

WE HAVE REMOVED 2199 CONTRACTS  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 32352 CONTRACTS OR 3,235,200 OZ (100.62

TONNES)

confirmed volume THURSDAY 252,117 contracts fair

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

SEPT 13    SEPTEMBER  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE SEPT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	67,710.006 Oz 2106 KILOBARS JPM           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	38 notice(s) 3800 OZ 0.1182 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	106contracts    10,600 OZ 0.3297 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	3956notices 395,600oz 12.304 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits nil oz

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of JPMorgan 67,710,006 oz

2106 KILOBARS

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 67,710,006 oz

adjustments:1

CUSTOMER TO DEALER JPMORGAN: 69,447,548 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER

For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 144 contracts having GAINED 49 contracts. We had 16 notices filed on THURSDAY so we GAINED 65 contracts or 6500 oz will stand at the comex as these boys seek metal on this side of the pond.

OCTOBER GAINED 1251 CONTRACTS UP TO 42,211 CONTRACTS

NOVEMBER GAINED 61 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2041

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 21,227 CONTRACTS TO 434,569

We had 38 contracts filed for today representing 3800 oz  

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 38 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3956x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT X144 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (38x 100 oz per contract( equals  406,200 OZ  OR 12.634 TONNES.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (3956x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT  (XXX , OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (38 x 100 oz which equals  406,200 oz (12.634 TONNES) 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 12.634 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,885,944.092 oz 58.660 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  16,970,724,821OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,484,287.324( 232.79tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,623,595.051 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,598343oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 174,13tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

SEPT 13/2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE SEPT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	16,751,599 OZ Delaware .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil
No of oz served today (contracts)	12 CONTRACT(S)    (60,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	57 contracts  (0.285 million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	4836 Contracts  (24.180 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  0 customer deposits:

i

total customer deposit nil oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/306.139 million  or 44.13%

adjustment:0

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Delaware 16,751,599 oz

total customer withdrawals: 16,751,599oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 76,168MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.1539million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 69 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 0 CONTRACT(S). 

WE HAD 12 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY, SO WE GAINED 12 CONTRACTS OR 60,000 OZ

UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..

THERE MUST BE ENOUGH SILVER OVER HERE.

OCTOBER SAW ANOTHER GAIN OF 25 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1472 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.

NOVEMBER SAW ITS ANOTHER GAIN OF 9 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 29

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 1430 CONTRACTS UP TO 115,841

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 12 for 60,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 94,584 huge

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4836 x 5,000 oz = 24.180 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(69) and the number of notices served upon today 12 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month:  4836 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (69x number of notices served upon today minus (12)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT  contract month equates to 24.465 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 24.465 million oz.

There are 76.168million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOURINTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,72 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $9.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES

AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES

AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES

AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES

AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES

AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES

AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES

AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES

AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES

AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES

AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES

AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES

AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 870,72 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

SEPT12//WITH SILVER UP $0.93 NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ

AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.959 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $0.23//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 45,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.880 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 467.648 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

end

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

THIS IS IMPORTANT TO READ:

Gold swaps squeezed

Not only are the charts foretelling higher prices, but runaway US debt and an increasing threat of an all-out war against Russia are fuelling a global panic out of dollars into gold

Alasdair MacleodSep 13∙Paid

Gold finally broke out above its tight consolidation range into new high ground yesterday and saw overnight demand taking it to $2570 this morning. That’s up $73 from last Friday’s close. Silver was at $30.15, up $2.25 on the same time scale.

By way of an update, the technical charts for gold and silver follow:

Both charts are bullish, capable of supporting significant further price rises. I’ve commented on them frequently in these market reports recently, so it is unnecessary to repeat the analysis, other than to say that silver has some catching up to do with gold having finally broken out of a nearly four-year bull market consolidation last April. And with a gold/silver ratio currently at over 85, a rising gold price should turbocharge silver.

Collectively, the bullion establishment is always short of both gold and silver and is being badly squeezed by these developments. The next chart shows the estimated positions of the Swaps category on Comex for 3 September (the last Commitment of Traders figures) adjusted for an estimated increase in their positions and for the gold price today:

The gross short position is estimated at $80 billion split between 26 traders — that’s $3.08 billion on average each. Some will have an even higher exposure and will almost certainly be forced to close their shorts in a rising market. It will be a crisis for them, requiring write-downs against precious bank equity capital.

There is an assumption that these losses are hedged in London’s OTC market. This is bound to be true where bullion banks have bought out-of-the-money options to cap potential losses. But that merely passes the potential losses onto other bullion banks.

Gold’s price breakout coincides with the US budget deficit for August at an astonishing $380 billion compared with estimates of less than $300 billion. It was even announced at 0500 EST instead of its usual time of 1400 EST on Thursday, presumably to avoid negative headlines during market hours. The chart below is taken from a Zerohedge article on the subject:

The August deficit was nearly double the August deficits during the covid years. Furthermore, with the US economy stalling, defence spending rising, and interest costs now estimated to be $1.2 trillion for this tax year to end-September, on average monthly deficits will be heading significantly higher next year. Furthermore, with USG debt already standing at $35.3 trillion it’s hardly surprising that holders of the dollar are losing faith in it in favour of gold.

The second news item is potentially more serious. There is mounting pressure on America to authorise the deployment of American and British missiles for Ukraine to attack deep into Russia. Both the new UK defence secretary and Anthony Blinken have agreed between them in Kyiv that it is necessary, and Putin has responded to a Russian journalist that these missiles would represent NATO’s direct involvement in a war against Russia.

The problem for NATO is that Ukraine is losing, and the invasion of Kursk is turning out to be a huge strategic error. There is a reluctance on the American part to accept this reality ahead of the presidential election. Instead, the policy appears to be to poke the bear to increase his anger.

Oh, and good luck to all in the bullion bank establishment on this Friday 13^th!

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHE

huge story!!!

wow 160 tonnes//that will shake them up

h

jan Nieuwenhuijs: Saudi central bank caught secretly buying 160 tonnes of gold in Switzerland

Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-09-12 15:49 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Thursday, September 12, 2024

The Saudis have joined other Asian countries in ditching their long-term sensitivity to the gold price. 

Evidence suggests the Saudi central bank has been covertly buying 160 tonnes of gold in Switzerland since early 2022, contributing to the current gold bull market.

Although the Saudis played a key role in the birth of the global dollar standard in the early 1970s, this time around they might even become a lynchpin for its dissolution. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/12/saudi-central-bank-caught-secretly-buying-160-tonnes-of-gold-in-switzerland-003458

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/:live from the vault: 190 Andrew Maguire talks with Dave Kranzler

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.03 PTS OR 0.48% //Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.70 PTS OR 0.79% // Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 251.51 OR 0.68%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.37%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0947CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1030/ Oil UP TO 69.28dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.76Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 7.0947

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1030

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.83 PTS OR 0.48%

HANG SENG CLOSED UP 128.70 PTS OR 0.79%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 251.51 PTS OR 0.68%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  101.04 EURO RISES TO 1.1087 UP 615BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.843 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 140.77…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.1445 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.5260 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2,949

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.104

3j Gold at $2567.50 /Silver at: 30.04  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 75 //100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 90.93

3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and  72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 140.77  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.843 % STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8468 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9389  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.651 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.995 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.591 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33,96…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.8090 UP 2 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.9310 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.751 DOWN 2 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Gain As Expectations For A 50bps Rate Cut Spike

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 08:15 AM

US futures pointed to modest gains after a rally that lifted the Nasdaq 100 more than 5% this week thanks to Nvidia, and the S&P 500 by 3.5%. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% led by small-caps which rose 1% as hopes of a jumbo 50bps rate cut jumped overnight; Nasdaq futures were 0.1% higher, with GOOG, META, and NVDA the top performers in megacap land despite a plunge by Adobe on poor guidance. Treasuries yields fell with the 10Y trading at 3.65% and the policy-sensitive 2Y yield down 5bps, while the dollar continues to slide, dropping for a third day, and retreating 0.3% after an article by the WSJ’s Nick Timiraos and comments by Nevertrumper Bill Dudley restored speculation that a 50bps rate cut is possible next week. The yen soared to a fresh 2024 high. Commodities are higher. Today, the data focus will be on Michigan Sentiment and inflation expectation. The consensus is at 68.5 vs. 67.9 prior.

In premarket trading, Adobe plunged -8% after the guidance disappointment despite a strong FQ3 upside. Oracle jumped another +6% after its positive ultra long-term revenue guidance. Boeing shares fall as much as 4.4% after the planemaker’s factory workers walked off the job for the first time in 16 years. Here are some other notable movers:

• Halliburton (HAL) shares are down 0.6% in premarket trading after RBC Capital Markets downgraded the energy company to sector perform from outperform.
• Instil Bio (TIL) shares jump 9.2% in premarket trading after Baird increased its price target on the stock to a Street-high of $180 — an increase of 463% from the broker’s last figure.
• Moderna shares (MRNA) fall as much as 4.9% in premarket trading on Friday, set to extend losses for a second session, as at least two brokerages, including JPMorgan and Jefferies, downgrade their ratings on the stock. The downgrades come after the biotech company said it aims to reduce its research and development budget by about 20% over the next three years. The company also lowered its annual revenue guidance for 2025.
• RH (RH) shares soar 20% in premarket trading after the furniture retailer reported second-quarter revenue and profit that topped Wall Street expectations. The company touted an improvement in customer demand in recent months, though it cut its sales forecast for the year, saying revenue will lag demand as it adjusts its assortment.
• Vistra Corp. (VST) shares rise 2.9% in premarket trading after Jefferies called the stock its top pick as it launched coverage of the power sector with a constructive view.

Investors remain divided on the magnitude of the Fed’s anticipated pivot to policy easing starting at next week’s meeting. The debate has continued after data Thursday showed that the US producer price index picked up slightly in August after the previous month’s numbers were revised lower. Meanwhile, an uptick in applications for unemployment benefits renewed concerns about a weakening labor market. Traders are now betting on 33 basis points of cuts from the Fed on Sept. 18 (45% odds of a 50bps rate cut), versus 31 basis points on Thursday and 26 basis points on Wednesday.

“If I were in the room, I would actually be pushing for a 50 basis-point rather than a 25 basis-point cut,” Evercore Chairman Emeritus Ralph Schlosstein said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “The balance of risks has shifted from a risk that inflation doesn’t come down as we hope, to a risk that unemployment grows up faster than we would hope.”

His view echoed that of former New York Fed President William Dudley, a Bloomberg Opinion columnist and adviser, and chair of the Bretton Woods Committee. “I think there’s a strong case for 50,” he said Friday in Singapore. “I know what I’d be pushing for.” 

Thursday’s wholesale inflation data followed the more closely watched consumer price index, which showed underlying inflation accelerated in August. Yet policymakers have made it clear that they’re currently highly focused on softness in the labor market, which is more likely to drive policy discussions in the months ahead.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose 0.4%. IBEX outperforms peers, adding 0.4%, FTSE 100 is flat and underperforms. Autos, construction and real estate are the best-performing sectors in Europe.  Danish stocks hit a record for the first since November 2021, paced by gains im DSV A/S after the logistics firm agreed to buy a Deutsche Bahn AG unit for €14.3 billion ($15.9 billion). Here are the most notable European movers:

• Roche shares gain as much as 2.7% after Bank of America upgrades to buy, saying the EPS downgrade cycle is over for the Swiss drugmaker.
• DSV shares gain as much as 4.3% after the Danish logistics firm announced it has signed an agreement to buy 100% of Deutsche Bahn’s DB Schenker unit for €14.3 billion.
• Fresenius shares gain as much as 4% to the highest intraday level since May 2022 after being upgraded to overweight from neutral at JPMorgan.
• Konecranes shares climb as much as 8.7%, the most in seven weeks, after the Finnish industrial crane manufacturer raised its FY sales outlook, citing “strong delivery execution.”
• Bollore shares rise as much as 7.1% after the holding company of the French tycoon Vincent Bollore announced plans to squeeze out minority shareholders in three holding companies.
• Precious-metals producers advance for a second day in Europe and South Africa as gold rises to a fresh record.
• Travis Perkins shares rise as much as 3%, the most since July, after RBC boosted its price target to a Street-high 1,150p from 950p.
• Worldline shares slump as much as 14% to a record low after cutting full-year guidance for a second time in two months, citing “slow trading conditions” and performance issues.
• AstraZeneca shares drop as much as 2.8%, falling for a fourth straight session, after Deutsche Bank downgrades to sell from hold and sets a Street-low price target.
• Salmar shares fall as much as 2.4% as Berenberg cuts its price target for the Norwegian salmon farmer, expecting falling global prices despite relatively tight demand.
• Kesko shares drop as much as 2.6% after the Finnish home goods and improvements retailer reports its sales figures for August, which DNB Markets views as “mixed.”
• Chemometec shares drop as much as 4.4% after Nordea gives the Danish lab-equipment firm its only sell rating, as it downgrades from hold.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.3%. AUD and CAD are the weakest performers in G-10 FX; JPY and SEK outperform.

In rates, front-end Treasuries outperform global bonds across the curve as traders revive the chance that the Federal Reserve might start its easing cycle with a 50bps interest-rate cut. Two-year yields drop more than 6bps to 3.57%. Treasuries and bunds curves bull steepen, while gilts lag peers with the Bank of England largely expected to keep rates on hold next week.

In commodities, WTI trades within Thursday’s range, adding 0.9% to near $69.61 amid a rebound from record bearish levels. Spot gold rises roughly $12 to trade near $2,570/oz as it climbs to a record high.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for July, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Rehn.

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% at 5,614.50
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 513.88
• MXAP up 0.5% to 183.11
• MXAPJ up 0.5% to 569.20
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 36,581.76
• Topix down 0.8% to 2,571.14
• Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 17,369.09
• Shanghai Composite down 0.5% to 2,704.09
• Sensex little changed at 82,946.86
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,099.95
• Kospi up 0.1% to 2,575.41
• German 10Y yield down 2 bps at 2.13%
• Euro up 0.2% to $1.1091
• Brent Futures up 0.3% to $72.21/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,566.68
• US Dollar Index down 0.36% to 101.01

Top Overnight News

• Boeing’s largest labor union voted overwhelmingly to go on strike as of Friday, dealing a fresh blow to the company that’s already struggling mightily. WSJ
• China suspended the operations of PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP for six months and imposed a record penalty over lapses in its auditing of China Evergrande Group. The accounting firm was fined 441 million yuan ($62 million) for its auditing work on Evergrande’s inflated financial reports from 2018 to 2020. BBG
• Xi subtly downshifts China’s focus on achieving its economic growth targets as headwinds mount. SCMP  
• Putin warns he would consider Moscow to be directly at war with NATO if Ukraine is given permission to conduct strikes deep into Russian territory. RTRS
• Worldline shares tumble in European trading on Fri after the company cut its revenue/earnings guidance for 2024 and replaced its CEO (“over the summer, Worldline experienced slow trading conditions coupled with specific performance issues in our Pacific business and on some global online verticals, including travel”). RTRS
• European banks are buying back AT1 bonds at a record pace, with $4.5 billion repurchased this year, as regulatory clarity and strong investor demand embolden lenders. BBG
• Biden close to signing off on allowing Ukraine to launch long-range weapons into Russia (just so long as they aren’t weapons provided by the US). NYT
• William Dudley (former head of the NY Fed) says there’s a “strong case” for a 50bp rate cut at the 9/18 FOMC meeting. BBG
• Former Trump administration officials are working on a plan to privatize Fannie and Freddie and will look to execute it should Trump win in Nov. WSJ  
• Turkey seeks US approval to buy GE aerospace (GE) engines for military jets: BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed and initially took their cues from the gains in the US, but with upside capped by a lack of fresh drivers ahead of a long weekend. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in mining stocks with gold miners boosted after the precious metal hit a fresh record high. Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to currency strength and as participants headed towards the extended weekend in Japan. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the former spearheaded the advances in the region with the help of developers, energy stocks and financials, while the mainland was lacklustre ahead of the latest Chinese activity data on Saturday and the four-day weekend closure.

Top Asian News

• China’s top legislative body approves draft proposal to raise retirement age, via Xinhua; China will raise retirement age of men to 63 (prev. 60) and female to 55-58 (prev. 50-55)

Top European News

• German Economy Ministry said economic recovery is only likely to occur towards the end of the year; German export economy not expected to see significant impetus in coming months.
• The Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey: Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 2.7%, down from 2.8% in May 2024. Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.6%, unchanged from 2.6% in May 2024. Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.2%, up from 3.1% in May 2024.

FX

• DXY is trading around the 101.00 mark following a dovish repricing of Fed bets, attributed to an article by Fed-watcher Timiraos, where he noted that it could be a close call between 25 or 50bps, whilst former FOMC Member Dudley said he would push for a 50bps if he was stll on the committee.
• EUR/USD is on the rise after picking itself up from a 1.1005 base yesterday to a current peak at 1.1094, which has subsequently brought a test of 1.11 into view; upside stemming from a scaling back of dovish ECB bets at the October meeting.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD as the dovish repricing for next week’s Fed meeting stands in contrast to a widely-expected hold by the BoE next week. Accordingly, Cable has picked itself up from a 1.3001 low earlier in the week to a current peak of 1.3150.
• JPY is the best performer across the majors as USD/JPY extends its move lower for a fourth consecutive session in what appears to be a Fed vs. BoJ play.
• AUD/USD is currently pausing for breath after gaining on Wednesday and Thursday; some notable Opex activity for the pair is in play today.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1048 (prev. 7.1214).
• Peru Central Bank cut its reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, but stated that the rate cut does not necessarily mean future rate cuts will follow. The pair has now moved as low as 140.64; its lowest level since December 28th 2023.

Fixed Income

• USTs are scaling back yesterday’s losses with upside primarily attributed to an article by Fed-watcher Timiraos, where he noted that it could be a close call between 25 or 50bps. Comments from former FOMC member Dudley that he would be pushing for 50bps if he were on the committee is also a factor. The 10yr yield has slipped as low as 3.623% but is holding above Wednesday’s 3.605% trough.
• Bunds are higher alongside gains in global counterparts and a reversal of Thursday’s price action which saw the curve bear-flatten as odds of an October rate cut were scaled back. German 10yr yield is currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 2.098-169% range.
• Upside in Gilts is more a by-product of price action elsewhere in the fixed income space, given the light UK-docket. The UK 10yr yield is currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 3.744-798% range.

Commodities

• WTI and Brent continue the gains seen in the prior session, with upside facilitated by the broader risk-on sentiment coupled with the shut-ins amid Hurricane Francine (now a post-tropical cyclone). Brent Nov resides in a USD 72.17-52/bbl.
• Precious metals are mostly firmer, with modest gains seen in spot gold and silver whilst spot palladium is subdued, following the prior day’s outperformance. The complex will be mindful of a meeting between US and UK governments, where it will decide on allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit targets in Russian territory. Spot gold trades in a USD 2,566-2,571.12/oz range.
• Mixed trade across base metals and reflective of the tentative tone across the market.
• US Coast Guard said the New Orleans Port condition is normal following waterway assessments, with vessel movement and cargo operations authorised within the COTP New Orleans Zone.
• Macquarie said global oil market faces heavy surplus in 2025. Oil may drop into low USD 50s/bbl, outside base case.

ECB speak

• ECB’s Nagel said expect to reach inflation goal at the end of next year and core inflation is also going in the right direction, according to German radio.
• ECB’s Simkus discussed monetary policy in interview on Radio LRT, while he stated that additional reductions will rely on information and speed of rate cuts will depend on data.
• ECB’s Rehn said the ECB’s rate cuts support growth but Europe should get on the road to better productivity. Current uncertainties further emphasise the dependence on fresh data and analysis about the economy. Council will continue to base monpol on the inflation outlook, the dynamics of core inflation net of energy and food prices and strength of monpol transmission.
• ECB’s Vasle said inflation is to be largely steered by core and services; not committing to a pre-determined path.
• ECB’s Villeroy said that recent activity data has been somewhat disappointing. Should gradually reduce the degree of monetary restriction as appropriate.
• ECB’s Rehn said EZ GDP growth is projected to gradually pick up; disinflation in the EZ is on the right track; downside risks to growth increased over the summer; have full freedom of action and flexibility at all meetings.

Geopolitics: Ukraine

• Lebanese media reported that rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Safad in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Sirens sounded in the Israeli settlement of Alemon in the West Bank warning of an infiltration of militants, according to Al Jazeera.

Geopolitics: Other

• Russian President Putin warned the UK and the US that they will be “at war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, according to The Times.
• US Ambassador to Ukraine strongly condemned Russia’s attack on a vessel carrying grain from Ukraine.
• Russian Deputy Defence Minister said the China-Russia relationship is a model of nation-to-nation collaboration and is a peace guarantee, while their two defence ministries have continuously expanded cooperation and interactions such as drills and exchanges, including more than 100 projects this year. The official added that the US is trying to suppress any technological development centre that is not obedient to it which is double containment and suppression of China and Russia. Furthermore, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister said Russia has unique experience of fighting against various Western weapons and is ready to share it with partners, according to RIA.
• China’s Defence Ministry said major countries must the take lead in safeguarding global security and should never interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. China’s Defence Ministry also stated it is important to uphold fairness, justice, international rule of law, and enhance the authority of the UN, while it added that peace talks and political settlement are the only solutions for the Ukraine crisis and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• North Korean leader Kim oversaw a test-fire for the new 600MM multiple rocket launcher, while he inspected a training base for special operations armed forces and guided combatants drills, as well as inspected the nuclear weapons institute and production base of weapons-grade nuclear materials, according to KCNA. It was later reported that South Korea condemned North Korea’s unveiling of a uranium enrichment facility and said it will never accept North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, according to the Unification Ministry.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Aug. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.1%
  • Aug. Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
  • Aug. Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.9%, prior 1.6%
  • Aug. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.7%
  • Aug. Export Price Index YoY, est. 1.4%, prior 1.4%
• 10:00: Sept. U. of Mich. Sentiment, est. 68.5, prior 67.9
  • Sept. U. of Mich. Current Conditions, est. 61.6, prior 61.3
  • Sept. U. of Mich. Expectations, est. 72.2, prior 72.1
  • Sept. U. of Mich. 1 Yr Inflation, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
  • Sept. U. of Mich. 5-10 Yr Inflation, est. 3.0%, prior 3.0%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Earlier this week, Jim and I published our latest chartbook, which is called “At the crossroads”. It looks at 5 themes where markets are currently debating the direction of travel. The outcomes will have profound impacts over the quarters and years ahead.

One theme markets are still debating this morning is whether the Fed are going to cut by 25bps or 50bps at their meeting next week. Up until yesterday afternoon, it had looked as though 25bps was increasingly likely, with futures only placing a 15% chance on a 50bp move. But then a couple of articles were published in the Wall Street Journal and the FT suggesting that a 50bp move was still in play, which has led markets to once again re-evaluate their expectations, and futures are now pricing in a 47.5% chance of a 50bp move this morning. So very much in the balance.

The initial driver of this was a story by Nick Timiraos in the Wall Street Journal, which appeared to favour arguments for a 50bp cut next week. In particular, it said that even though it was “all but settled” that the Fed would cut rates this week, “how much is shaping up to be a close call.” So that was something of a surprise to investors, who had been increasingly pricing in 25bps, not least after the core CPI print was a bit stronger than expected on Wednesday. In many respects, this echoes what took place before the June 2022 meeting, when markets had been expecting a 50bp hike going into the Fed’s blackout period, but an article by Timiraos shortly before the decision said they were likely to consider a larger 75bp hike, which led markets to adjust their expectations just before the decision, before they did indeed hike by 75bps. Expectations for a 50bp cut then got further traction yesterday from an FT report, which suggested the Fed “faces a close call” whether to cut by a larger 50bps.

We’ll have to see if market pricing stays at these levels, as there are still several days to go before the decision. But it’s worth noting that if expectations for a 50bp cut remain at 47.5%, that would be the most uncertain market pricing for a Fed decision in this cycle so far. After all, even as policy expectations have shifted about a lot, since the pandemic we’ve always seen the Fed deliver the rates decision that markets were pricing in just beforehand as the most likely. So when markets have moved higher or lower after the Fed’s decisions, the reactions have generally been in response to factors like the dot plot, or comments in the press conference, rather than the rates decision itself, which has been widely expected. So if pricing stays where it is currently, it would be the first meeting in years where there’s serious uncertainty about the rates decision.

In terms of the market reaction, we can already see how investors are pricing in the potential for 50bps again. For instance, the 2yr Treasury yield is down by -5.4bps overnight to 3.58%, and if it stays there it would be its lowest closing level in just over two years. Similarly, the 10yr yield is down -3.0bps overnight to 3.64%. The effects have also been evident globally, and the Japanese Yen has strengthened to 140.81 per US Dollar this morning, on track for its strongest level since July 2023. In the meantime, US equities got a fresh boost from the prospect of a 50bp cut, with the S&P 500 (+0.75%) posting a fourth consecutive advance, which left the index just over 1% beneath its all-time high from a couple of months ago. And futures for the index are up another +0.06% this morning. However, Japanese equities have come under pressure overnight given the yen’s appreciation, with the TOPIX (-0.91%) and the Nikkei (-0.81%) both losing ground. Although in China, the CSI 300 (+0.04%) stabilised after closing at a 5-year low the previous day, and South Korea’s KOSPI (-0.11%) has only posted a modest decline.

Before the Fed news came through, the day was going largely according to script, with the US data coming in broadly in line with expectations, whilst the ECB delivered an expected 25bp rate cut. That rate cut took the ECB’s deposit rate down to 3.50%, marking their second cut of this cycle after an initial move in June, and markets continue to anticipate further cuts over the months ahead. We also had their latest forecasts, which showed growth projections a tenth lower each year relative to June, rising from +0.8% this year to +1.3% in 2025 and +1.5% in 2026. Otherwise, the forecasts for headline inflation were unchanged, coming in at +2.2% in 2025 and +1.9% in 2026. But they did upgrade the core CPI forecasts for next year, up by a tenth to +2.3%, before coming down to +2.0% in 2026, as before.

Against that backdrop, European sovereign bond yields moved higher yesterday, with those on 10yr bunds (+3.8bps) and OATs (+2.4bps) both picking up. The sell-off was stronger at the front end, with 2yr German yields (+7.3bps) seeing their biggest rise in four weeks amid some dialling back of rate cut expectations over the next several months. While there were few surprises from the ECB meeting, President Lagarde’s tone showed less scepticism on growth and inflation than had emerged in markets, which had moved to price the ECB deposit rate falling to below 2% by next summer. In the press conference, Lagarde kept the ECB’s options open, saying that they would “remain data-dependent”, and that a “declining path is not pre-determined”. And later in the session, a Bloomberg article citing “people familiar with the matter” said that although an October cut was unlikely, downside risks to growth meant they’d rather keep the option open. Our European economists at DB continue to expect the next cut of 25bps in December. While they see risks as skewed towards faster easing, it is not obvious to them that policy rates need to go below neutral. See their full reaction note here.

Elsewhere yesterday, there was some focus on the latest US data, but there really wasn’t much that changed our understanding of the economy. For instance, the weekly initial jobless claims were broadly in line with expectations at 230k over the week ending September 7 (vs. 226k expected), and the continuing claims covering the previous week were exactly in line with expectations at 1.850m. Otherwise we did get the PPI inflation release, which was a bit stronger than expected at +0.2% for August (vs. +0.1% expected). But the previous month was revised down a tenth at the same time, so again our overall understanding wasn’t too different to before.

For equities, there was a fairly benign backdrop yesterday, and the news about the potential for a 50bp cut helped the S&P 500 advance +0.75%. The index has now risen every day this week, up +3.46% as it stands, so it’s clawed back most of its losses from last week, when it had its worst weekly performance since SVB’s collapse in March 2023. And it’s only just over 1% beneath its all-time high from July again. Tech stocks led the rally, with the Magnificent 7 (+1.40%) also up for a 4th consecutive day, leaving its own gains at +7.06% since the start of the week. But the gains were broad based, and all eleven S&P 500 major sector groups were higher on the day, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 rose +1.22%. And over in Europe, the STOXX 600 was up +0.80%, alongside other indices including the DAX (+1.03%) and the CAC 40 (+0.52%).

To the day ahead now, and data releases include Euro Area industrial production for July, and in the US there’s the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde and the ECB’s Rehn.

2B) European report

European bourses generally firmer, DXY slips amid heightened dovish repricing bets which is benefitting bonds; UoM Prelims due – Newsquawk US Market Open

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 05:55 AM

• European bourses are generally firmer; US equity futures remain steady and hold on to the prior day’s gains.
• Dollar is slightly lower amid a dovish repricing of Fed rate cut bets, and JPY outperforms as USD/JPY slips to a 140 handle.
• Bonds are generally firmer; Bunds trade around the 135.00 mark.
• Crude oil continues to edge higher given the risk tone, XAU is modestly firmer and base metals are mixed.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US import/export prices, UoM Prelim, credit ratings for Germany, Spain, and Greece.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.5%) hold a modest upward bias following on from a mixed APAC handover, but given the strong performance on Wall St. on Thursday.
• European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Autos top the chart, possibly as chances of a larger Fed rate cut increased after the European close. On the flip side, Optimised Personal Care Drug and Groceries sit at the bottom of the bunch.
• Flat/eventful trade across US futures (ES +0.1% NQ Unch. RTY +0.4%) this morning but with the contracts holding onto a lion’s share of yesterday’s gains.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is trading around the 101.00 mark following a dovish repricing of Fed bets, attributed to an article by Fed-watcher Timiraos, where he noted that it could be a close call between 25 or 50bps, whilst former FOMC Member Dudley said he would push for a 50bps if he was stll on the committee.
• EUR/USD is on the rise after picking itself up from a 1.1005 base yesterday to a current peak at 1.1094, which has subsequently brought a test of 1.11 into view; upside stemming from a scaling back of dovish ECB bets at the October meeting.
• GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD as the dovish repricing for next week’s Fed meeting stands in contrast to a widely-expected hold by the BoE next week. Accordingly, Cable has picked itself up from a 1.3001 low earlier in the week to a current peak of 1.3150.
• JPY is the best performer across the majors as USD/JPY extends its move lower for a fourth consecutive session in what appears to be a Fed vs. BoJ play.
• AUD/USD is currently pausing for breath after gaining on Wednesday and Thursday; some notable Opex activity for the pair is in play today.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1048 (prev. 7.1214).
• Peru Central Bank cut its reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, but stated that the rate cut does not necessarily mean future rate cuts will follow. The pair has now moved as low as 140.64; its lowest level since December 28th 2023.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are scaling back yesterday’s losses with upside primarily attributed to an article by Fed-watcher Timiraos, where he noted that it could be a close call between 25 or 50bps. Comments from former FOMC member Dudley that he would be pushing for 50bps if he were on the committee is also a factor. The 10yr yield has slipped as low as 3.623% but is holding above Wednesday’s 3.605% trough.
• Bunds are higher alongside gains in global counterparts and a reversal of Thursday’s price action which saw the curve bear-flatten as odds of an October rate cut were scaled back. German 10yr yield is currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 2.098-169% range.
• Upside in Gilts is more a by-product of price action elsewhere in the fixed income space, given the light UK-docket. The UK 10yr yield is currently towards the middle of yesterday’s 3.744-798% range.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• WTI and Brent continue the gains seen in the prior session, with upside facilitated by the broader risk-on sentiment coupled with the shut-ins amid Hurricane Francine (now a post-tropical cyclone). Brent Nov resides in a USD 72.17-52/bbl.
• Precious metals are mostly firmer, with modest gains seen in spot gold and silver whilst spot palladium is subdued, following the prior day’s outperformance. The complex will be mindful of a meeting between US and UK governments, where it will decide on allowing Ukraine to use long-range missiles to hit targets in Russian territory. Spot gold trades in a USD 2,566-2,571.12/oz range.
• Mixed trade across base metals and reflective of the tentative tone across the market.
• US Coast Guard said the New Orleans Port condition is normal following waterway assessments, with vessel movement and cargo operations authorised within the COTP New Orleans Zone.
• Macquarie said global oil market faces heavy surplus in 2025. Oil may drop into low USD 50s/bbl, outside base case.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• French CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Aug) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%); CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Aug) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.6%)
• EU Industrial Production MM (Jul) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. -0.1%); Industrial Production YY (Jul) -2.2% vs. Exp. -2.7% (Prev. -3.9%, Rev. -4.1%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• German Economy Ministry said economic recovery is only likely to occur towards the end of the year; German export economy not expected to see significant impetus in coming months.
• The Bank of England/Ipsos Inflation Attitudes Survey: Median expectations of the rate of inflation over the coming year were 2.7%, down from 2.8% in May 2024. Asked about expected inflation in the twelve months after that, respondents gave a median answer of 2.6%, unchanged from 2.6% in May 2024. Asked about expectations of inflation in the longer term, say in five years’ time, respondents gave a median answer of 3.2%, up from 3.1% in May 2024.

ECB SPEAK

• ECB’s Nagel said expect to reach inflation goal at the end of next year and core inflation is also going in the right direction, according to German radio.
• ECB’s Simkus discussed monetary policy in interview on Radio LRT, while he stated that additional reductions will rely on information and speed of rate cuts will depend on data.
• ECB’s Rehn said the ECB’s rate cuts support growth but Europe should get on the road to better productivity. Current uncertainties further emphasise the dependence on fresh data and analysis about the economy. Council will continue to base monpol on the inflation outlook, the dynamics of core inflation net of energy and food prices and strength of monpol transmission.
• ECB’s Vasle said inflation is to be largely steered by core and services; not committing to a pre-determined path.
• ECB’s Villeroy said that recent activity data has been somewhat disappointing. Should gradually reduce the degree of monetary restriction as appropriate.
• ECB’s Rehn said EZ GDP growth is projected to gradually pick up; disinflation in the EZ is on the right track; downside risks to growth increased over the summer; have full freedom of action and flexibility at all meetings.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Turkey seeks US approval to buy GE aerospace (GE) engines for military jets, via Bloomberg

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Lebanese media reported that rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Safad in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Sirens sounded in the Israeli settlement of Alemon in the West Bank warning of an infiltration of militants, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

• Russian President Putin warned the UK and the US that they will be “at war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, according to The Times.
• US Ambassador to Ukraine strongly condemned Russia’s attack on a vessel carrying grain from Ukraine.
• Russian Deputy Defence Minister said the China-Russia relationship is a model of nation-to-nation collaboration and is a peace guarantee, while their two defence ministries have continuously expanded cooperation and interactions such as drills and exchanges, including more than 100 projects this year. The official added that the US is trying to suppress any technological development centre that is not obedient to it which is double containment and suppression of China and Russia. Furthermore, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister said Russia has unique experience of fighting against various Western weapons and is ready to share it with partners, according to RIA.
• China’s Defence Ministry said major countries must the take lead in safeguarding global security and should never interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. China’s Defence Ministry also stated it is important to uphold fairness, justice, international rule of law, and enhance the authority of the UN, while it added that peace talks and political settlement are the only solutions for the Ukraine crisis and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• North Korean leader Kim oversaw a test-fire for the new 600MM multiple rocket launcher, while he inspected a training base for special operations armed forces and guided combatants drills, as well as inspected the nuclear weapons institute and production base of weapons-grade nuclear materials, according to KCNA. It was later reported that South Korea condemned North Korea’s unveiling of a uranium enrichment facility and said it will never accept North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, according to the Unification Ministry.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is slightly lower and holds just beneath USD 58k, whilst Ethereum holds flat around USD 2.3k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed and initially took their cues from the gains in the US, but with upside capped by a lack of fresh drivers ahead of a long weekend.
• ASX 200 was led by outperformance in mining stocks with gold miners boosted after the precious metal hit a fresh record high.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to currency strength and as participants headed towards the extended weekend in Japan.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the former spearheaded the advances in the region with the help of developers, energy stocks and financials, while the mainland was lacklustre ahead of the latest Chinese activity data on Saturday and the four-day weekend closure.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s top legislative body approves draft proposal to raise retirement age, via Xinhua; China will raise retirement age of men to 63 (prev. 60) and female to 55-58 (prev. 50-55)

2C ASIAN REPORT.

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed, USD/JPY fell under 141.00, catalysts were light overnight – Newsquawk Europe market open

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 02:12 AM

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed and initially took their cues from the gains in the US, but with upside capped by a lack of fresh drivers ahead of a long weekend.
• ECB officials have not ruled out a rate cut at the October meeting, according to Bloomberg sources, while Reuters sources suggested an ECB October rate cut is said to be unlikely for now and a move before December would take exceptional negative growth surprises.
• US and UK governments are discussing allowing Ukraine to deploy British cruise missiles backed by US navigational data to conduct long-range strikes inside Russian territory, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 1.1% on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include French Final CPI, EZ Industrial Production, US Trade, UoM Prelim, BoE/Ipsos Survey & ECB TLTRO publication.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were firmer in a continuation of Wednesday’s gains and risk-on trade with seemingly added tailwinds from an article by WSJ’s Timiraos titled “The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?” which did not offer any sources but quoted a former senior adviser to Powell who said the amount of cuts over the next few months “is going to be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50″, which he thinks is a close call. Attention was also on the ECB which cut rates as expected, while the latest data releases did little to shift the dial as PPI figures printed mixed and jobless claims matched estimates.
• SPX +0.75% at 5,596, NDX +0.97% at 19,423, DJIA +0.58% at 41,097, RUT +1.22% at 2,129.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Democratic candidate Harris leads Republican candidate Trump 47%-42% in the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, and among registered voters who heard at least something about Tuesday’s debate, 53% said Harris won the debate while 24% said Trump.
• Republican Presidential candidate Trump said there will not be another debate with VP Harris, while he also vowed to end all taxes on overtime.
• Georgia judge dismissed three criminal counts of election interference in case against Presidential candidate Donald Trump and allies, according to a court filing.
• WSJ’s Timiraos released an article titled “The Fed’s Rate-Cut Dilemma: Start Big or Small?” which cited a former senior adviser to Fed Chair Powell, Jon Faust, who said the amount of cuts over the next few months will be a lot more important than whether the first move is 25 or 50, which he thinks is a close call.
• WSJ’s Timiraos said economists who map the CPI and PPI into the PCE think core inflation using the Fed’s preferred gauge will be around 0.13-0.17% in August, extending a streak of mild, target-consistent monthly readings.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed and initially took their cues from the gains in the US, but with upside capped by a lack of fresh drivers ahead of a long weekend.
• ASX 200 was led by outperformance in mining stocks with gold miners boosted after the precious metal hit a fresh record high.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed owing to currency strength and as participants headed towards the extended weekend in Japan.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the former spearheaded the advances in the region with the help of developers, energy stocks and financials, while the mainland was lacklustre ahead of the latest Chinese activity data on Saturday and the four-day weekend closure.
• US equity futures were uneventful amid the mixed performance in Asia and an absence of catalysts to spur price action.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 1.1% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY lacked demand after the prior day’s selling which coincided with the risk-on sentiment, while mixed PPI data and in-line jobless claims had little sway on the buck nor the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates by 25bps next week. Furthermore, the calendar for Friday is light with only UoM preliminary data the only notable release for the US.
• EUR/USD took a breather and held on to spoils after benefitting from the dollar weakness despite the ECB rate cut.
• GBP/USD marginally extended on advances above the 1.3100 level following the outperformance among activity peers.
• USD/JPY continued its retreat in the absence of any major catalysts and breached the 141.00 level to the downside
• Antipodeans plateaued overnight following yesterday’s upward momentum owing to their high-beta statuses.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1030 vs exp. 7.1048 (prev. 7.1214).
• Peru Central Bank cut its reference rate by 25bps to 5.25%, as expected, but stated that the rate cut does not necessarily mean future rate cuts will follow.
• Banxico Deputy Governor Heath said it’s “false” that the bank is injecting dollars into the market to keep the peso from depreciating further.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures edged higher following yesterday’s fluctuations and a rebound from support at the 115.00 level.
• Bund futures kept afloat and looked to reclaim the 135.00 level after the recent ECB rate cut.
• 10yr JGB futures tracked the gains in global counterparts as Japanese stocks underperformed.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures mildly gained amid the positive risk sentiment and Gulf of Mexico output shut-ins.
• BSEE noted 42% of oil production at US Gulf of Mexico shut due to storm Francine.
• US Coast Guard said the New Orleans Port condition is normal following waterway assessments, with vessel movement and cargo operations authorised within the COTP New Orleans Zone.
• Spot gold traded rangebound with marginal gains to print a fresh record high.
• Copper futures were underpinned by the initial predominantly constructive mood and dollar weakness.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin lacked conviction and swung between gains and losses on both sides of the USD 58,000 level.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Lebanese media reported that rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Safad in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Sirens sounded in the Israeli settlement of Alemon in the West Bank warning of an infiltration of militants, according to Al Jazeera.

OTHER

• US and UK governments are discussing allowing Ukraine to deploy British cruise missiles backed by US navigational data to conduct long-range strikes inside Russian territory, according to Bloomberg citing sources.
• Russian President Putin warned the UK and the US that they will be “at war” with Russia if they allow Ukraine to use long-range missiles to strike targets inside Russia, according to The Times.
• US Ambassador to Ukraine strongly condemned Russia’s attack on a vessel carrying grain from Ukraine.
• Russian Deputy Defence Minister said the China-Russia relationship is a model of nation-to-nation collaboration and is a peace guarantee, while their two defence ministries have continuously expanded cooperation and interactions such as drills and exchanges, including more than 100 projects this year. The official added that the US is trying to suppress any technological development centre that is not obedient to it which is double containment and suppression of China and Russia. Furthermore, the Russian Deputy Defence Minister said Russia has unique experience of fighting against various Western weapons and is ready to share it with partners, according to RIA.
• China’s Defence Ministry said major countries must the take lead in safeguarding global security and should never interfere in other countries’ internal affairs. China’s Defence Ministry also stated it is important to uphold fairness, justice, international rule of law, and enhance the authority of the UN, while it added that peace talks and political settlement are the only solutions for the Ukraine crisis and Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
• North Korean leader Kim oversaw a test-fire for the new 600MM multiple rocket launcher, while he inspected a training base for special operations armed forces and guided combatants drills, as well as inspected the nuclear weapons institute and production base of weapons-grade nuclear materials, according to KCNA. It was later reported that South Korea condemned North Korea’s unveiling of a uranium enrichment facility and said it will never accept North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons, according to the Unification Ministry.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• An ECB October rate cut is said to be unlikely for now and a move before December would take exceptional negative growth surprises, according to Reuters sources. Furthermore, sources added that a move on October 17th could not be ruled out but it was not likely because policymakers would not have much new information by then and would rather wait for a new round of projections in December.
• ECB officials have not ruled out a rate cut at the October meeting and Governing Council members aren’t yet in a position to rule out an interest-rate cut at their next decision on October 17th even if such a move is unlikely, according to Bloomberg sources. Furthermore, given the downside risks to economic growth in the EZ, officials would rather keep open the option to lower borrowing costs at that meeting.
• ECB’s Nagel says expect to reach inflation goal at the end of next year and core inflation is also going in the right direction, according to German radio.
• ECB’s Simkus discussed monetary policy in interview on Radio LRT, while he stated that additional reductions will rely on information and speed of rate cuts will depend on data.

.

3 CHINA

CHINA/USA

WHY NOW?

Well, Well, Well: Biden And Harris Drop Trump-Esque Tariffs On Temu, Shein

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 10:40 AM

The very same day Vice President Kamala Harris slammed Donald Trump’s plan to institute new tariffs on products Americans buy from abroad as a “Trump sales tax,” the Biden administration dropped… new tariffs on products Americans buy from abroad.

On Thursday, the White House announced new measures – largely aimed at Chinese e-commerce platforms such as Temu and Shein – aimed at reducing the range of low-value imports eligible for duty and tax exemptions. The new tariffs expand on Trump-era tariffs on China that the Biden administration kept in place, SCMP reports.

In 2018, then president Donald Trump imposed tariffs of 7 to 25 per cent on US$300 billion of Chinese imports under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, citing “unfair” trade practices.

His successor Joe Biden retained most of these tariffs and expanded them to include Chinese solar panels, electric vehicles and batteries – with tariffs on electric vehicles reaching up to 100 per cent. -SCMP

According to US deputy national security adviser for international economics Daleep Singh, the measures will address the ‘de minimis rule,’ which exempts shipments valued at less than $800 from import duties, taxes, and rigorous screening.

“Since approximately 70 per cent of Chinese textile and apparel imports are subject to section 301 tariffs, this step will drastically reduce the number of shipments entering through the de minimis exemption,” said Singh, adding that the intent was to “curtail de minimis overuse and abuse.”

The new tariffs are built on existing measures under Section 201 of the Trade Act and Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which covers industry, national security and human rights concerns. The now-plugged de minimis exemption has long been considered a “loophole” that allows Chinese e-commerce companies and fentanyl traffickers to evade tariffs and threaten public safety, according to the report.

Last June, a House Select Committee report on the CCP concluded that Temu and Shein alone are likely responsible “for more than 30 per cent of all packages shipped to the United States daily under the de minimis provision.”

According to a fact sheet released by the Biden administration, the number of annual shipments coming into the US under the de minimis rule has gone from roughly 140 million a decade ago to over 1 billion as of last year.

“That is just too high a volume for our officials to be able to target and block the shipments that are unsafe, illegal, or violate our laws in any other way, or are unfairly traded,” said a senior Biden administration official, who added “We are very concerned about large foreign companies exploiting the de minimis loophole in unprecedented ways, creating a scale and volume that we believe constitutes abuse.”

To ensure greater visibility into de minimis shipments, the US government also proposed new information collection requirements and stricter safety standards. Products that do not meet these standards will be blocked from entering the market.

Singh emphasised that the Biden administration will “always act” to protect Americans and enforce laws to “level the playing field for American workers, retailers and manufacturers”.

“We’re making sure foreign companies respect our laws and don’t endanger American families,” he said. -SCMP

Singh also suggested that Congress should pass legislation to “comprehensively reform” the de minimis exemption.

In August, a bipartisan group of lawmakers targeted textiles and clothing in a new bill.

“We’ll be specific about textiles and apparel, because they make up a huge percentage of the de minimis shipments that we’re seeing now,” the senior official told SCMP. “There may be others, and this is an area where we’d really like to work with Congress to figure out, how do we make sure that any changes we’re taking or making to de minimis now take into account how trade volumes might shift in the future.”

Looks like the “Trump sales tax” works?

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

E

END

5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL//HOUTHIS

And Biden gives Iran billions of dollars?

(zerohedge)

Urgent Salvage Operation Planned To Avert Environmental Disaster From Burning Houthi-Hit Oil Tanker

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 09:25 AM

The European Union’s Operation Aspides naval force announced on X that a “new salvage operation” is set to begin in the coming days to tow the burning oil tanker Sounion in the Red Sea to safety, with hopes of preventing an environmental disaster. 

“On 12 September, the MV SOUNION remains on fire after it was attacked in the Red Sea. The vessel is currently anchored, not drifting and there are no signs of an oil spill from the main cargo hold,” the EU’s naval mission in the Red Sea, Aspides, wrote in a post. 

EU naval force continued, “To prevent an environmental disaster, it is essential that public, private organizations and actors work closely together. This is why EUNAVFOR ASPIDES stands ready to facilitate a new salvage operation in the coming days by providing protection to the commercially chartered ships that will tow the ship to a safe location.” 

EU naval forces shared images of the Greek-registered tanker currently on fire with about a million barrels of crude oil on board. The tanker currently has no power following an Iran-backed Houthi attack last month. 

One source told Reuters that two tugboats owned by a Greek-based salvage company are in the area and awaiting further instructions. 

“There is an action plan in place and there is progress,” another source said, adding, “The towing operation is expected to begin in the next two days.”

Since October, Houthi rebels have launched over 80 attacks on commercial ships in the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea, sinking two ships and killing four sailors.

The chaos has sparked global supply chain snarls for the shipping industry as commercial vessels are rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope. 

Even more concerning is the Biden-Harris administration’s failure of ‘Operation Prosperity Guardian’ to ensure freedom of navigation and maritime security in the critical chokepoint.  

Former Navy Seal and Blackwater founder Erik Prince said this failure shows America’s “credibility and deterrence” has quickly eroded. 

END

ISRAEL/SYRIA/IRAN

3 commentaries: Jerusalem Post, Times of Israel and zerohedge

Israel destroys Iran’s “deep layer” missile facility in Syria. Commandos were used to blow up the factory and they captured some Iranians on the ground

(JerusalemPost)

IDF destroys Iran’s ‘Deep Layer’ facility in Syria in boldest operation yet – Axios

The IDF’s General Staff Reconnaissance Unit destroyed a Syrian underground missile factory built by Iran, a significant blow to their covert operations.

By WALLA!SEPTEMBER 12, 2024 19:39

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The IDF’s General Staff Reconnaissance Unit destroyed on Sunday a Syrian underground factory for precision missiles built by Iran, according to a Thursday Axios report.

According to the report, this was the boldest operation the IDF has carried out in recent years against Iranian targets in Syria. The destruction of the factory was reportedly a significant blow to Iran and Hezbollah’s covert effort to produce medium-range precision missiles in Syria.

The Israeli government has thus far maintained silence on the matter and is not taking responsibility to avoid provoking Syria, Iran, or Hezbollah into retaliation. The IDF spokesperson, the Defense Ministry, and the Prime Minister‘s Office have all declined to comment.

The operation took place on Sunday night, with official Syrian media and the Syrian opposition reporting heavy Israel Air Force airstrikes in several areas of western Syria, including near the city of Masyaf, close to the Lebanese border.

On Wednesday, a Syrian opposition TV channel and Greek Middle East expert Eva J. Kalluriotis reported that the airstrikes were merely a cover for an Israeli ground operation in Masyaf. Three sources familiar with the operation confirmed to Axios that the IDF General Staff Reconnaissance Unit conducted a ground raid and destroyed a precision missiles manufacturing facility.

Destroying ‘Deep Layer’

Two sources stated that Israel had informed the Biden administration in advance about the sensitive operation, and the US did not object. The Israeli special forces unit surprised the Syrian guards at the facility and killed several of them during the raid.

The Israeli forces used explosives they brought with them to blow up the underground facility from within, including advanced machinery, according to two sources who spoke to Axios. The airstrikes carried out on Sunday night were intended to prevent the Syrian army from sending enforcement troops back to the area.

According to the Axios report, the Iranians began constructing the underground facility in coordination with Hezbollah and Syria in 2018 after a series of Israeli airstrikes destroyed most of Iran’s missile production infrastructure in Syria.

The Iranians decided to build a deep underground factory within a mountain in Masyaf to be impervious to Israeli airstrikes.

The Iranian plan was to produce precision missiles in a protected facility near the Lebanese border, allowing for quicker delivery to Hezbollah in Lebanon. According to the report, Israeli intelligence discovered and monitored the construction process for over five years, code-naming the Iranian facility “Deep Layer.”

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According to Axios’ report, an airstrike alone would not be sufficient to destroy the facility, so the IDF opted to coordinate such an alleged attack with a ground operation. The IDF considered carrying out the operation at least twice in recent years, but it was not approved due to the high risks involved.

END

TIMES OF ISRAEL.//

same story as above

Reports: Israeli troops raided IRGC weapons facility in Syria, took equipment, documents

During major attack by jets earlier this week, IDF commandos said to have rappelled from helicopters to capture Iranians and remove materials before destroying site

By ToI Staff12 September 2024, 3:36 pmUpdated at 10:18 pm

A fire sparked by an alleged Israeli strike in the Masyaf area of central Syria, late September 8, 2024. (SANA)

Israeli special forces carried out a raid on an Iranian weapons facility in the Masyaf area in Syria earlier this week, according to a number of unconfirmed reports on Wednesday widely reported by Hebrew media.

A series of previously reported alleged Israeli strikes hit military sites in central Syria late Sunday, killing at least 14 people, wounding 43, and sparking fires. Local Syrian media reported at the time that the strikes hit a scientific research center in Masyaf, which has long been associated with the manufacture of chemical weapons and precision missiles by the Syrian regime and Iranian forces.

However, the fresh reports were the first to claim that Israeli troops operated on the ground during the action at Masyaf, which lies about 200 kilometers (124 miles) north of Israel, though only about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Syria’s western coastline.

The opposition Syria TV network, based in Turkey, reported that Israeli helicopters did not land on Syrian soil, but instead hovered as special forces rappelled down ropes. The report said there were violent clashes in which three Syrians were killed, and two to four Iranians were captured. The report did not give details as to what happened to the Iranians.

The outlet additionally said that a Russian communications center was among the sites targeted as part of the operation. Sources told the outlet that Syrian air defenses had been weakened by recent Israeli attacks, preventing them from foiling the Sunday assault, and that Syria has established a high-level commission of inquiry into the incident.

According to a report in the Axios news site — citing three sources familiar with the operation — the elite Shaldag unit of the Israeli Air Force carried out the raid. The news site also reported that Israel informed the US before the operation was slated to take place, and was not met with any resistance from the White House.

A fire sparked by an alleged Israeli strike in the Masyaf area of central Syria, late September 8, 2024. (SANA)

Separately, Middle East researcher Eva J. Koulouriotis said she was told by a “security source” that the IDF operation had targeted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) facility for the development of ballistic missiles and drones that also provided logistical support to Hezbollah.

In a series of posts to X, Koulouriotis said roads surrounding the facility were targeted with airstrikes to stop Syrian troops from reaching the area, before the Israeli helicopters carrying special forces approached, with air support from combat helicopters and drones.

She said Israeli troops entered the compound, removed equipment and documents, and then laid explosives to destroy the facility.

Axios reported that IDF troops surprised the Syrian guards at the underground missile factory, killing several of them, and then used explosives to blow up the facility from the inside, under the cover of the above-ground airstrikes. According to the news site, Israeli security officials had been monitoring the factory for more than five years, and had been considering such an attack in recent years but held back until the right time.

The US-government-owned Al Hurra network reported that the raid targeted several sites in the Masyaf area and that their intensity and the death toll were “unusual.”

The Masyaf area, west of Hama, is thought to be used as a base for Iranian forces and pro-Iranian militias and has been repeatedly targeted in recent years in attacks widely attributed to Israel.

It contains the Scientific Studies and Research Center, known as CERS or SSRC, which according to Israel is used by Iranian forces to manufacture precision surface-to-surface missiles.

Western officials have long associated CERS with the manufacture of chemical arms. According to the United States, sarin gas has been developed at that center, a charge denied by the Syrian authorities.

There was no comment on the strike from Israel, which rarely acknowledges individual operations in Syria.

Israel has been carrying out airstrikes inside Syria since the outbreak of that country’s civil war in 2011, mainly targeting attempts to transfer weapons to the Iran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah terror group or to keep Iranian fighters themselves from gaining a foothold near Israel’s border.

Since Hamas’s brutal October 7 massacre, which saw some 1,200 people killed in southern Israel and 251 kidnapped, Israel has escalated its strikes on Iranian-backed terror targets in Syria and has also struck Syrian army air defenses and some Syrian forces.

Hezbollah has been exchanging near-daily fire with Israel since it started launching attacks from Lebanon a day after its Palestinian ally Hamas’s terror onslaught, which sparked the war in Gaza.

end

same story/zero hedge

Israel Inserted Elite Commandos Into Syria, Blew Up Secret Missile Base, Reports Say

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 08:45 AM

The Sunday night major Israeli airstrikes in the central Syrian town of Masyaf which we reported on earlier in the week might have involved much more than what was initially known.

There was an unusually high death toll for such an attack, which targeted a highly secretive Syrian government facility known as the Syrian Military Scientific Studies and Research Center (SSRC). It left at least 16 people killed and another 40 injured.

But now both Axios and Israeli media are reporting it involved a ground component. “During major attack by jets earlier this week, IDF commandos said to have rappelled from helicopters to capture Iranians and remove materials before destroying site,” Times of Israel writes. However, other reports make no mention of captured Iranians.

The Thursday Axios report says the Sunday night Israeli operation in central Syria really involved the following: “An elite Israel Defense Forces unit conducted a highly unusual raid in Syria earlier this week and destroyed an underground precision missile factory that Israel and the U.S. claim was built by Iran, according to three sources briefed on the operation.” It was reported at the time that significant portions of the surrounding countryside caught on fire.

Axios further cites the following while reporting that the White House was briefed ahead of time and did not oppose the daring raid which apparently involved boots on the ground:

• On Wednesday, a Syrian opposition television channel and Greek Middle East expert Eva J. Koulouriotis both reported the airstrikes were a cover for an Israeli ground operation in Masyaf.
• Three sources with knowledge of the operation confirmed to Axios that the Israeli Air Force elite unit Shaldag conducted a raid and destroyed the facility.

The report further claims that the elite IDF commando team engaged in a firefight on the ground outside the facility during the operation, killing several Syrian guards.

The special forces team additionally rigged the underground missile facility with explosives and blew it up, according to the claims. Israeli airstrikes were unleashed on the area as a diversion, but also to prevent Syrian Army reinforcements to the area.

Times of Israel said that the Israeli team was able to recover sensitive documents as well before destroying the facility. The publication further noted that “the fresh reports were the first to claim that Israeli troops operated on the ground during the action at Masyaf, which lies about 200 kilometers (124 miles) north of Israel, though only about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Syria’s western coastline.”

One question that remains is how a slow-moving helicopter (as in much slower moving than Israeli jets) was able to breach Syrian airspace for so long – and was able to insert ground forces – without triggering Syria’s Russian-made anti-air defenses. It could be that following so many Israeli Air Force attacks of late, Syria’s air defense are seriously degraded – or else regional batteries were successfully distracted, or there’s the possibility Israel used stealth technology and low altitudes. 

Α security source confirmed to me that last Thursday evening, special forces from the |#IDF carried out a special operation against a military facility belonging to the #IRGC, six kilometers southwest of the Syrian city of Masyaf.

Israel has kept quiet about any details of a ground insertion, and Damascus is unlikely to confirm, given if Israel successfully pulled off something like that it would be a humiliation.

ISRAEL/WEST BANK

END

ISRAEL /LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH

Nasrallah has suffered severe, painful blows in recent days – opinion

Nasrallah is relying on the ‘Nahariya test’ barely receiving a passing grade.

By AVI ASHKENAZISEPTEMBER 12, 2024 06:18

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Secretary-general of the Hezbollah terror group, Hassan Nasrallah, has understood the extent of the fracture in his organization following recent events that occurred.

An Iranian drone launched by the Houthis from Yemen struck a residential building in Tel Aviv on July 18, killing 50-year-old Yevgeny Pridder. Less than 30 hours later, dozens of Israel Air Force planes flew from the Israeli border and destroyed facilities in the port of Hodeidah in Yemen – a crucial supply route for the Houthis. 

On Monday, September 9, at noon, an Iranian drone operated by Hezbollah struck a building in Nahariya, about 130 km north of Tel Aviv. 

The question is: Will the situation in Nahariya be treated the same as in Tel Aviv? 

Will the political leadership instruct the IDF to deploy around 100 fighter jets for a powerful attack on the port of Beirut? Or perhaps direct attacks on another strategic site in Lebanon?

Choosing to overlook the Nahariya attack 

The answer is, most likely, no. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will probably prefer to overlook the attack in Nahariya. The current assumption for residents of the north is that IDF strikes will continue to show restraint and that “the Hodeidah effect” is unlikely to be replicated in Beirut or another city in Lebanon. 

Netanyahu has many things on his plate right now: a trip to the UN in New York, budget, and trying to navigate the Jewish high holidays without escalating the region into a religious war, as some of his coalition members aim for. 

The last thing he needs right now is a high-intensity war with Iran’s Lebanese branch.

On a serious note, Netanyahu is in real trouble. He has become entangled in a political, military, and public quagmire that even a magician like him has found challenging to unravel. 

Luckily for Netanyahu, Nasrallah is also in a similar problematic situation.

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He, too, is entangled with himself, the desires of Iran, and internal resistance from Lebanese citizens. 

Major General Ori Gordine

Netanyahu’s fortune is that Major General Ori Gordin leads the Northern Command. The man is no fool. Gordin is an individual who can, at any time, restrain and curb aggressive intentions. This is why the IDF has managed to control the intensity of the clashes between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah, Syria, and Iraq over the past 11 months.

Gordin has managed to cause damage to the other side while preventing them from considering wild offensive intentions.

The attacks this past week in Syria attributed to Israel were highly significant. It was a severe blow to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, Hezbollah’s armament, and the pro-Iranian forces in Syria. 

Nasrallah has suffered several painful blows in recent days. The Israel Air Force has carried out over a hundred strikes in Lebanon since last Wednesday. The IDF has been systematically targeting Hezbollah’s launchers in Lebanon, causing severe damage to the organization’s arms depots. 

Thanks to Israel, Hezbollah has gone from a well-organized, trained army to an organization struggling to maintain a structured system.

In other words, orders from Nasrallah are not being transmitted to the field in an organized and precise manner. 

Nasrallah understood that he was in a bind: How would he escape this situation without being hurt even more? 

The Nahariya test

He may have relied on the fact that the “Nahariya test” will only pass with a passing grade. 

Simply put, Nasrallah relied on Netanyahu continuing to treat situations along the northern and southern borders as less important than central Israel.

END 

Hamas’ Sinwar Issues Rare Letter Thanking Hezbollah Chief For Sending Thousands Of Rockets Against Israel

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 12:00 PM

Hamas chief Yehya Sinwar, who is believed to be on the run in tunnels underneath Gaza, has taken the rare step of sending a letter to the leader of Lebanese Hezbollah’s Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah ‘thanking’ him for taking the fight to Israel in the north. At this point throughout the eleven-month conflict, Hezbollah has launched literally many thousands of rockets on northern Israel, and there’s been daily tit-for-tat exchanges with Israel.

“Your blessed actions have expressed your solidarity on the fronts of the Axis of Resistance, supporting and engaging in the battle,” Sinwar told Nasrallah in the letter, Lebanon’s al-Manar channel said. Sinwar further hailed the war as “one of the most honorable battles for the Palestinian people.” It’s clearly part of a defiant effort of Hamas to show Israel and the world that its leader is alive and well.

Hezbollah has reportedly lost more fighters than even in the 2006 war with Israel. At this point an estimated 500 of its members have been killed, including top military commander Fuad Shukr.

Wednesday through Thursday has witnessed another uptick in missiles waves, compared to the relative low number of missiles sent from Lebanon in the prior weeks. Starting Wednesday a barrage of 100 rockets pounded northern Israel, with 60 of them coming within a single hour, local reports said.

A Hezbollah anti-tank guided missile attack also wounded a 39-year old Israeli reservist who was guarding a kibbutz. Israel in response launched attacks on southern Lebanon with fighter jets and several drones.

And overnight and into the early morning of hours of Friday at least 20 more rockets were unleashed on the northern city of Safed, cause forest fires in the area. The Iron Dome appears to have intercepted many of the inbound projectiles.

Panic inside Safed prayer service during overnight rocket attack from Hezbollah:

Panic inside a synagogue in “Safed” during Hezbollah’s rocket attack on the “Beria” barracks. pic.twitter.com/CbZZygwiHS

— Monitor𝕏 (@MonitorX99800) September 13, 2024

The city of Safed is not often targeted and is somewhat distant from the border, and so it remains full of civilians:

Safed lies some 13 kilometers (eight miles) from the border with Lebanon, and unlike many communities nearer the frontier, the city of some 38,000 remains largely inhabited, with attacks that deep into Israel relatively uncommon.

In its statement claiming the attack, Hezbollah said that it had launched the barrage as revenge for what it said was an Israeli strike in the village of Kfarjouz on Thursday. The Iran-backed group claimed to have targeted a key air defense site north of Safed.

The uptick in fighting late this week also witnessed a drone entering Israel from Lebanon. It reportedly crashed in a non-inhabited area of the Upper Galilee in northern Israel.

Below is a summary of some of the latest key developments on Friday via Al Jazeera:

• Gaza’s Civil Defence said four Palestinians were killed and others wounded in two separate Israeli strikes in central Gaza.
• Hezbollah said it launched multiple attacks, using different weapons, on Israeli sites close to the Lebanese border, claiming direct hits.
• The Israeli army confirmed the attacks, including a drone that was launched from Lebanon, without reporting any causalities.
• The WHO chief repeated his “call for a ceasefire, which is critical for rebuilding the health system to cope with escalating needs” in Gaza.
• Videos shared on social media showed Israelis blocking the Namir Road in Tel Aviv to denounce the way the government handles the war in Gaza.

Below: Missile intercepts over Safed overnight…

צפת הלילה pic.twitter.com/HbDIicHOfh

— יוסי יהושוע – Yossi Yehoshua (@YehoshuaYosi) September 13, 2024

At least 80,000 to 100,000 Israeli citizens remain in a permanent state of evacuation from their homes due to the fighting with Hezbollah in the north, which has been constant since Oct.7. But so far the situation has not spiraled into a full war or Israeli invasion of Lebanon.

MIDDLE EAST/USA

USS Roosevelt Carrier Heads Home After Extended Deployment In Middle East

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 09:25 PM

The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is heading back to US shores and its home of Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia after an extended Mideast tour. This brings to an end a rare Pentagon decision to have two US carrier’s patrolling Middle East region waters, in the wake of soaring tensions between Israel and Iran following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this summer.

There are still smaller US warships currently in the Eastern Mediterranean, at a moment Israel and Iran-linked Hezbollah continue daily exchanges of fire. Additionally, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier remains in the Gulf of Oman.

The Lincoln arrived only a few weeks ago, meant to overlap with the Roosevelt before it was pulled from the theater of operations.

The USS Dwight D. Eisenhower nuclear-powered carrier had also previously been called home, following several months in the Red Sea. Yet as far as these attempts at keeping a strong ‘deterrent’ force in the region, the Houthis have not stopped their attacks on Red Sea shipping, though the attacks have slowed over the last several weeks.

Pentagon leaders have claimed that a carrier and warship presence near Israel has served to deter a possible major Iranian retaliation attack in response to the July 31st Haniyeh assassination. 

According to fresh details of US naval movements in the Times of Israel:

US officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss troop movements, said the San Diego-based Roosevelt and the USS Daniel Inouye, a destroyer, are expected to be in the Indo-Pacific Command’s region on Thursday. The other destroyer in the strike group, the USS Russell, had already left the Middle East and has been operating in the South China Sea.

The Lincoln, which is now in the Gulf of Oman with several other warships, arrived in the Middle East about three weeks ago, allowing it to overlap with the Roosevelt until now.

Reports say that the the guided missile submarine USS Georgia is still operating in the Red Sea. The US Navy has previously acknowledged the Red Sea fight against the Houthis to be the biggest running sea battle it has faced since WW2.

Yet still, there’s been no official declaration of war by Congress, and the American public has by and large ignored it. “I don’t think people really understand just kind of how deadly serious it is what we’re doing and how under threat the ships continue to be,” Cmdr. Eric Blomberg with the USS Laboon described in June.

The #Pentagon’s rare move to keep two Navy aircraft carriers in the #MiddleEast over the past several weeks has now finished, as the #USS Theodore Roosevelt is heading home, according to #US officials.

USS Roosevelt heads home after extended Middle East deployment

From english.alarabiya.net

x.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1834049293168079132

Iran continues to tout that it might strike Israel at any moment, and the White House has already pledged to use its regional assets to help intercept any inbound ballistic missiles or drones. Again, this comes without any Congressional war authorization or oversight whatsoever.

end

ISRAEL/WESTBANK

IDF discovers tunnel near Tulkarm hospital, kills armed terrorists in intense West Bank operation

Security forces also killed a terrorist who threw explosive devices and dismantled a vehicle rigged with explosives.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 13, 2024 16:40Updated: SEPTEMBER 13, 2024 17:32

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In joint counterterrorism operations conducted by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Israel Security Agency (ISA), and Israel Border Police, four terrorists were killed in the Tulkarm and Nur Shams areas.

Three were killed in an aerial strike on Wednesday, while the fourth was killed during close-quarters combat with security forces. Among those killed was Muhammad Abu Ataya, suspected of killing Staff-Sergeant-Major Maksim Rizhkov of the Border Police’s Yamas unit on October 19, 2023. Approximately 15 other terrorists were also injured during the operation.

Additionally, an underground complex was found adjacent to a hospital in the Tulkarm refugee camp. The structure, which had an entrance but no exit, is under investigation by security forces, who plan to dismantle it.

In a separate 48-hour operation in Tubas, Tamun, and Far’a, security forces encountered a terrorist who hurled explosive devices and was subsequently killed in an exchange of fire. Forces discovered a vehicle rigged with explosives, including a long-range detonation system, which was dismantled.

During these operations, security forces confiscated a significant number of weapons, including sniper rifles, M-16s, handguns, and other weaponry. Four bomb manufacturing labs and communication centers equipped with cameras were dismantled in Tulkarm, along with a machine used to manufacture weapons. Numerous improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were also neutralized.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3769295&url=www.jpost.comIDF soldiers conduct counter-terrorism operations in Tulkarm, West Bank. (IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-820010

Additionally, five armed terrorists were targeted and killed by aircraft in Tubas.

The IDF will continue operations aimed at preventing terrorist activity in northern Samaria and the Jordan Valley.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/TURKEY

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/SYRIA

Crazy!!

(zerohedge)

Ukrainian Intelligence ‘Actively Recruiting’ Extremists In Syria’s Idlib: Lavrov

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 06:40 PM

On Thursday Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a bombshell of an accusation against Ukraine. He said that Ukrainian intelligence agents are “actively recruiting Islamist militants” in northwest Syria, the Sahara, as well as in the Sahel regions of Africa “to carry out terrorist operations.“

“Now there is information that Ukrainian envoys, those of Ukrainian intelligence, are in the Idlib de-escalation zone on the territory of Syria, where they are recruiting militants of Jabhat al-Nusra, now called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS),” the foreign minister said.

Lavrov alleged that the al-Qaeda linked militants are being recruited for “new hideous operations planned.” The fresh comments came during a conference involving the heads of Russian diplomatic missions abroad, held in Moscow.

“They are already looking further south, to the Sahara–Sahel zone of the African continent, where they are also carrying out terrorist attacks on government troops of numerous countries together with recruited extremists,” Lavrov alleged of Ukrainian intelligence.

In the remarks the top Russian diplomat highlighted the Moscow Crocus City Hall terror attack which killed at least 145 people on March 22 of this year. At the time Russian authorities alleged that the four Islamic militant attackers had links to Ukraine and that some of their associates involved in the plotting tried to escape across the border. The attack was later claimed by ISIS.

“The investigation is still underway, but it has already revealed evidence that the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry was involved in the preparation of the terrorist attack. In particular, the escape routes of the killers across the Russian–Ukrainian border were planned in detail,” Lavrov continued.

So it seems that Lavrov is accusing Ukraine of plotting more sabotage and terror attacks in side Russia by recruiting and paying Syrian and North African Islamist mercenaries.

The specific accusation regarding Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is interesting, given that the Syrian AQ group has long held Idlib province in northwest Syria. It has for years been fighting the Syrian and Russian militaries, and in 2015 Islamic fighters had first seized Idlib with the support of a NATO operations room in southern Turkey.

The only additional significant source claiming that Ukraine is tapping Syrian mercenaries is Turkish newspaper Aydinlik. The newspaper reported this week that Ukrainian government officials recently traveled to Idlib and met with members of Syria’s HTS to discuss a “drones-for-fighters” deal. “A delegation from Ukraine went to Idlib in recent months and met with the leaders of the terrorist organization,” the newspaper claimed of a meeting reportedly held in June.

However, there’s been no specific proof. But it would perhaps be an interesting way for Ukraine to solve its manpower problems. Syrian anti-Assad militants have also been known to travel to north Africa in support of Turkish defense firms. Turkey has long overseen what’s essentially a ‘jihadist highway’ in and out of Syria, or at other times “looked the other way”. It all started in and after 2011, amid US-Gulf efforts to oust Bashar al-Assad.

end

/RUSSIA

Robert H to us:

Do people think before they act?

“Russian force majeure on resource exports could bankrupt West’s economies: this is why

“The pain” of a Russian freeze on strategic resource exports “would be felt by both the US and the EU, and all countries listed as ‘unfriendly’ to Russia, as they would have to source the required elements from third country suppliers, and that would entail an appreciable price increase for the commodity, and the extended supply chain costs that entails,” investment consultant Paul Goncharoff told Sputnik, commenting on President Putin’s remarks this week that Russia may restrict its nickel, titanium and uranium exports in response to Western countries’ unfriendly actions.

The US and Europe can expect a 15-20% bump in the costs of its strategic resource imports if Moscow moves forward with restrictions, especially since Russia is in a unique position globally in the production of high-quality nickel, aviation-grade titanium, and enriched uranium, says Maxim Khudalov, chief strategist at the Vector X investment and brokerage firm. Industry cannot absorb this increase!

Furthermore, if the Europeans were deprived of access to Russian aviation-grade titanium, that would add to Airbus’s production costs, hitting their bottom line in the high-stakes rivalry with Boeing. Meanwhile, higher nickel costs would mean higher prices for virtually all of Europe’s high-tech products, including electronics and specialized mechanical engineering, the observer said, emphasizing that “all of this will become more expensive in Europe and again allow their American ‘friends’ to grab the remainder of their markets.”

Russia, over the short term, might lose a bit of its export revenues if resources’ exports to the West were curtailed, Khudalov admitted. 

“But on the other hand, why do we need export revenues? Generally speaking, the whole point of international trade for us is to sell raw materials in exchange for technology. Western countries have refused to supply us with technology basically going back to 2014. Then the question is: why do we continue to supply them with strategic raw materials? To get some green pieces of paper which they then seize from us? This is a rather strange position. Therefore, here it turns out that since they limit our access to technology, we are starting to limit their access to raw materials,” Khudalov said. 

China could become the main beneficiary of a Russian reorientation on resource exports, receiving a 15-20% bump in its cost competitiveness against Western finished goods, and getting a much-needed advantage in the looming trade war with the US, Khudalov summed up.

The West may well shoot itself by its own hand in the head!”

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

WORLD EVENTS NOTEWORTHY

END

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, September 2-9, 2024

Sergio Mendes; rockers “Screamin’ Scott” Simon (Sha Na Na), Mark Moffatt (The Monitors); rapper Rich Homie Quan (33); R&B singer Cunnie Williams; TikToker Caleb Graves (33); & more

Mark Crispin MillerSep 13

READ IN APP

UNITED STATES

Grammy-winning Brazilian musician Sergio Mendes dead at 83

September 6, 2024

Brazilian musician Sergio Mendes has died at 83. Mendes’s family told the Guardian in a statement that he “passed away peacefully” in his Los Angeles home. “Mendes last performed in November 2023 to sold out and wildly enthusiastic houses in Paris, London and Barcelona,” they added. “For the last several months, his health had been challenged by the effects of long term COVID.”

Link

Mendes was “vaccinated.” From June 2021:

Mendes, who turned 80 this year, has no plans to stop working. In fact, he is fully vaccinated and has already set a date for his first post-pandemic concert. He will return to the Hollywood Bowl on August 15.

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Scott Simon dies: 52-year-old Sha Na Na singer who co-wrote song for ‘Grease’ was 75

September 7, 2024

“Screamin’ Scott” Simon, who played piano in the early-rock revival group Sha Na Na for more than a half-century and co-wrote the song “Sandy” that John Travolta crooned in Grease, died September 5 of sinus cancer in Ojai, CA. He was 75. His daughter Nina Simon announced the news.

Link

Country and rock musician dies from pancreatic cancer: Mark Moffatt was 74

September 7, 2024

Mark Moffatt, a musician who made his claim in both the rock and country genres, has died from pancreatic cancer, according to Music Row and The Music. Both outlets noted he had suffered from the condition for more than a year before his passing. He was 74. As a performer, he found success in the Australia n music world with the ’80s rock band The Monitors. However, he found his greatest success behind the scenes, notably producing the legendary rock group The Saints. He eventually moved over to the U.S. and worked with fellow Australian Keith Urban early on in the country superstar’s career.

Link

Rapper Rich Homie Quan dead at 33

September 5, 2024

Rich Homie Quan has died at 33 years old. The platinum-selling rapper — whose real name was Dequantes Devontay Lamar — passed away suddenly on Thursday, September 5, The Post confirmed. “On Thursday, 5 September 2024, the Fulton County Medical Examiner was notified by Grady Memorial Hospital of the death of Dequantes Devontay Lamar. An autopsy has been scheduled for Friday, 6 September 2024,” the coroner said in a statement.

No cause of death reported.

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Basketball player-turned-R&B singer, Cunnie Williams, dead at 61

September 5, 2024

Cunnie Williams, basketball player turned R&B singer, passed away in August at the age of 61. The record label Peppermint Jam confirmed his death in a statement on social media on August 21. Williams started out with a career in basketball, but switched to making music in the 90s. In 1995 he released his debut album, Straight from the Heart of the Ghetto. His last album, No Place Like Home, was released in 2008.

No cause of death reported.

Link

TikTok star Caleb Graves dies at 33 after running in Disneyland half marathon amid L.A. heatwave

September 9, 2024

Caleb Graves, a TikTok influencer who focused on Disneyland content, has sadly passed away at the young age of 33. The social media vlogger participated in the Disneyland Halloween Half Marathon race over the weekend and tragically died soon after crossing the finish line. The race began at around 5 am local time on Sunday (September 8) at the Anaheim, Calif. resort and Caleb crossed the finish line at around 7 am, according to Entertainment Weekly. A representative for the Anaheim Police Department told EW, “The runner crossed the finish line. As soon as he did, one of the workers at the marathon noticed the gentleman was clutching his chest. They noticed he was going into cardiac arrest.” Caleb was pronounced dead approximately an hour after being transported to a local medical center. Caleb updated his TikTok page with multiple videos about the race over the weekend, including one where he talked about the Los Angeles heatwave. “I really hope I get through the race tomorrow morning,” he said in the video. While temperatures reached a high of 107 degrees on Sunday, it was much cooler at 5 am when the race started.

Link

Jason Hobdy, influential manager behind Maeta, dies at 40

September 3, 2024

The music industry is mourning the loss of talent manager Jason Hobdy, who passed away on Friday, Aug. 30, at the age of 40. According to Yvette Noel-Schure, Hobdy was on a flight returning from a tour in Japan with his artist, Maeta, when he fell ill. The Bronx [NY] native was known for his work with a roster of notable artists, including Maeta, Elijah Blake, and Tone Stith.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Comedy writer Eric Gilliland passes away at 61 after cancer battle

September 3, 2024

Eric Gilliland, a celebrated comedy writer, passed away on September 1 after battling cancer, according to Variety. Gilliland, who hailed from Illinois and was a 1984 Northwestern University graduate, made significant contributions to television comedy, writing for shows like ‘Roseanne,’ ‘The Wonder Years,’ and ‘That ’70s Show.’

Link

Costume designer Michael McDonald dies at 60

September 6, 2024

Tony nominee Michael McDonald passed away September 4 due to complications from a brief illness. News of his passing was confirmed by his lifelong friend and co-curator of the Costumes and Props exhibit at The Museum of Broadway, Lisa Zinni. Mr. McDonald was a treasured member of the theatre design community.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Comic book artist John Cassaday passes away at 52

September 9, 2024

Comics artist John Cassaday has passed away today at the age of 52. His sister, Robin, shared the news earlier today on Facebook. Robin revealed Cassaday was admitted to the ICU in New York four days ago. The cause of his death is unknown at this time, but Robin shared, “His organs and heart are functioning normally. His brain is the main concern.”

Link

Wizardry co-creator Andrew Greenberg dead at 67

September 3, 2024

Andrew Greenberg, co-creator of classic Wizardry series of computer RPGs with Robert Woodhead, is dead at 67. Among the most influential game designers, their 1981 hit defined an emerging genre and led to seven official sequels and countless spinoffs, homages, derivatives and competitors.

No age or cause of death reported.

Link

Diondre Overton dead at age 26 as tributes pour in for ex-Clemson college football receiver who won two national titles

September 7, 2024

A former Clemson receiver who won two national titles died at the age of 26, it was announced Saturday. Diondre Overton’s death was confirmed by the school but no cause was given. Overton played for Clemson from 2016 to 2019 and caught 52 passes for 777 yards. The team won the national championship in both 2016 and 2018.

No cause of death reported.

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

‘Fauci, Gates & Moderna responsible for COVID Pandemic – U.S. D.O.D issued ‘COVID-19 Research’ contract 3 Months before COVID was known to exist – & Fauci & Moderna had a Vaccine ready in Dec. 2019’;

2nd Smartest Guy in the World excellent substack again and with excellent reporting by THE EXPOSE

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 12

READ IN APP

Caught Red Handed: Fauci, Gates & Moderna responsible for COVID Pandemic – U.S. D.O.D issued ‘COVID-19 Research’ contract 3 Months before COVID was known to exist – (2ndsmartestguyintheworld.com)

Caught Red Handed: Fauci, Gates & Moderna responsible for COVID Pandemic – U.S. D.O.D issued ‘COVID-19 Research’ contract 3 Months before COVID was known to exist – & Fauci & Moderna had a Vaccine ready in Dec. 2019 – The Expose (expose-news.com)

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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‘

The discovery of a contract awarded by the U.S. Department of Defense to Labyrinth Global Health for “COVID-19 Research” in November 2019 has raised questions about the permanent U.S. Government’s knowledge of the novel coronavirus.

The contract was part of a larger project for a “Biological threat reduction program in Ukraine,” suggesting the permanent U.S. Government was at the very least aware of the alleged virus before it spread through Wuhan, China in December 2019.

But the findings also suggest the permanent U.S. Government may have had a hand in the creation of this alleged virus in Biolabs through Gain of Function Research overseen by Dr Anthony Fauci.

This would explain why they knew the name of the novel coronavirus disease three months prior to the World Health Organization officially naming it Covid-19 in February 2020.

And it may also explain why Moderna and Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) had a confidentiality agreement for an mRNA Coronavirus vaccine candidate in early December 2019, which was developed and jointly owned by Moderna and Fauci’s NIAID.

The U.S. Government’s “USA Spending” website reveals that it had spent a staggering $4.04 trillion “in response to COVID-19”. A deeper look at the website’s “Award Search” feature uncovers a contract awarded by the Department of Defense to Black & Veatch Special Projects Corp. for “Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services” on September 20, 2012.

A closer examination of the contract’s “Sub-Awards” tab reveals 115 transactions with recipients and brief descriptions, the majority of which are mundane items like “laboratory equipment for Kyiv” and “office furniture for Kyiv.”

There is, however, among the 115 transactions listed in the “Sub-Awards” tab of a contract awarded by the U.S. Department of Defense to Black & Veatch Special Projects Corp. one transaction that stands out:

An award to Labyrinth Global Health INC for “SME Manuscript Documentation and COVID-19 Research.”

While it is not surprising to see an award for COVID-19 research during a pandemic, the fact that the contract was awarded on November 12, 2019, at least one month before the alleged emergence of the novel coronavirus and three months before it was officially named Covid-19, raises questions about the government’s knowledge of the virus.

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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Friday The 13th: The Cutting Cycle

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 11:00 AM

By Philip Marey, Senior US strategist at Rabobank

Friday The 13th: The Cutting Cycle

Market speculation about a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed next week returned overnight after the Financial Times and the Wall Street Journal called the Fed’s rate choice between 25 and 50 bps a close call and former FOMC member Bill Dudley said there was a strong case for 50.

The rate slashers are back from hibernation. Inflation has kept them away for a few years, but now that central banks have their inflation targets in sight they are back to cutting. Yesterday, they struck in Europe. Next week, they’ll initiate the cutting cycle in the US.

At the start of the year, market expectations were that the Fed would have already cut 100 bps by now. pic.twitter.com/wrdQtvM6J1

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 11, 2024

As expected, the ECB cut the deposit facility rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% yesterday. As our ECB watcher Bas van Geffen noted in his ECB post-meeting comment, the 60bp cut to the main refinancing rate and marginal lending facility rate was merely a reflection of the technical adjustment to the policy rates corridor, communicated in advance. Inflation progress warranted yesterday’s rate cut, but the outlook remains highly uncertain. The staff projections are broadly unchanged from the June forecast. This does not warrant a change in pace. We continue to believe that the ECB will skip October, to cut again in December. Further out, the staff projections suggest a slightly lower terminal rate may be achieved in 2025. However, we maintain that the ECB overlooks geopolitical and trade risks next year.

The US PPI figures for August were slightly higher than expected, but at the same time there were downward revisions for July. The categories of the PPI that are used in the calculation of the PCE deflator were mild. The US initial and continuing jobless claims came in largely as expected and have been moving sideways at the turn of the month. In fact, the claims data suggest that the labor market is somewhat stronger than at the end of July.

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

VENEZUELA

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1087 UP 0.0015

USA/ YEN 140.77 DOWN 1,074 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE FINISHED

GBP/USA 1.3121 DOWN 0015

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3593 UP.0004 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 4 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 13.03 PTS OR 0.48%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.70 NPTS OR 0.79%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.37%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 128.70 PTS OR 0.79%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 13.03 PTS OR 0.48%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.37%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 251.51PTS OR 0.68%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2566.25

silver:$30.08

USA dollar index early FRIDAY  morning: 101.04 DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS FROM  THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.738%  UP 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.849% DOWN 2 AND 4/ 100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.949 UP 0 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.524 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1530 UP 3 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1093 UP .0022 OR 22 basis points

USA/Japan: 140.33 DOWN 1.500OR YEN IS UP 150 BASIS PTS//ROUND II OF ENDING YEN CARRY TRADE EXPLODES AGAIN TODAY

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.809 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .00006 OR 6 BASIS pts  to 1.3573

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0949(ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.0987)

TURKISH LIRA:  33.92 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.849

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from THURSDAY at  3.659% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.019 UP 2 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.580 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2575.35

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.46

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 32.12 PTS OR 0,39%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 81,01PTS OR 0.98%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 30.18 PTS OR 0.41%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 140.00 OR 1.23%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 114.69OR 0.34

WTI Oil price  69.89 12EST/

Brent Oil:  72.9612:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  91.05 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  5/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1520 UP 3 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.809 UP 2 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 2.915 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.734 DOWN 2

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1081 UP 0.0009   OR 9 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3126 UP 0.0002 OR 2 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.7690 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.851

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 140.94 DOWN .900 YEN UP 90 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3590 UP 0.0010 CDN dollar DOWN 10 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 68.98

Brent OIL:  71,93

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 3.656

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 3.991%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 7 PTS AT  3.576

CDN 10 YR RATE 2.921 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.7639 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 101.09 DOWN 26 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 33.94 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  90,00UP 0 0AND  380//100 roubles

GOLD  2,581,40 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.61 3;30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 297,01 PTS OR 0.72%

NASDAQ UP 91,52 PTS OR 0.47%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.56 DOWN 0.51 PTS OR 2,99%

GLD: $238,68 UP 2,35OR 0.99%

SLV/ $28.02 UP .75 OR 2,75%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Nvidia & NikiLeaks Spark Surge In Stocks, Gold, & Crypto This Week

SEPT 13

An event-full week (US CPI, US PPI, Presidential debate, ECB rate decision, and WSJ Fed whispers) left stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, and crude all higher in price, while the dollar was clubbed like a baby seal.

Soft survey data continues to rebound higher (full of hope) while hard data – most notably labor market-related – has been significantly lagging expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

…which, along with comments from The Wall Street Journal’s Fed-Whisperer (NikiLeaks) on discussions about a 50bps cut next week, sent rate-cut expectations higher on the week (despite plenty of chop around the hotter-than-expected core CPI print)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and shifted the market’s expectations for a 50bps cut next week above 50%…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower on the week, led by the short-end…

Source: Bloomberg

…but despite bonds being bid, US stocks snapped aggressively higher midweek (after NVDA CEO Jensen Huang said “demand was incredible” and the algos went wild) and extended that sudden squeeze into Friday (with Small Caps and Nasdaq leading). Nasdaq was up just under 6% this week – its best week since the Powell Pivot at the start of Nov 2023…

Small Caps soared 2.5% today as desk chatter was that we saw corporates scrambling to execute permitted buybacks before the blackout period begins (55% of SPX will be in a closed window by Monday)…

…as “Most Shorted” stocks soared all week…

Source: Bloomberg

…and Mag7 stocks were up 5 days in a row (soaring to their best week since March 2023)…

Source: Bloomberg

This week was not just AI stocks but the second-derivatives trades (like powering AI). Goldman’s Power-Up-America basket soared to its best week in the last two years…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks notably decoupled from bonds this week…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the Treasury curve (2s10s) steepened back into dis-inversion and its steepest since June 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was slammed lower after the WSJ comments yesterday (its sixth down week in the last seven weeks), but remains in a relatively narrow band for the last four weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar’s weakness helped lift gold, which surged to a new record high with its best week in five months…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices ended the week higher (despite today’s pullback) but WTI remains below $70…

Source: Bloomberg

Which, along with the broad commodity space, is the only aspect of the markets that comes close to pricing in the 230bps of cuts priced into FF futures (a hard landing!!!)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, bitcoin surged to its best week in two months, testing back up to $60,000 today…

Source: Bloomberg

…as perhaps the lagged impact of the surge in global liquidity (money supply) is about to send it to the moon…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and stocks are already there… and don’t forget – after Nasdaq’s  best week since the Powell Pivot, we are entering the market’s worst two-week period of the year…

Will Powell let the market down?

MORNING TRADING

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

This is the USA Minsky moment: Interest on the debt for this fiscal yr ending sept 30.2024 is 1.2 trillion dollars. This calendar year interest for 2024 will total 1.6 trillion dollars. Social Security is 1.5 trillion, Defense is around 1.0 trillion and Medicare/Medicaid etc another 1.2 trillion. Total expenditures of around 6.4 trillion. The deficit this year will be 2.4 trillion dollars. It is when you cannot pay interest on your debt, is when trouble begins

a must read

(zerohedge)

Endgame: Interest On US Debt Surpasses $1 Trillion For First Time Ever, Exploding August Budget Deficit To Record High

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 11:05 PM

2024 was the year when the runaway US budget deficit was supposed to gradually normalize, and after two crisis-years, the US was supposed to end its drunken sailor spending ways. And for a while there, it seemed touch and go, with the cumulative US deficit initially overtaking 2023 – forget about the batshit insane 2021 and 2022 when the deficit hit a mindboggling 18% of GDP…

… before slowly easing back for a few months, only to sprint ahead  of 2023 once more in August…

… when THIS happened: an August budget deficit of a staggering $380 billion, up more than 50% from the $243 billion in July, and up more than 55% from July, and up 66% from last August… oh, and almost $100 billion more than the median estimate of $292.5 billion, which may be why the Treasury quietly snuck the number out by leaking it after 5am ET when everyone was sleeping, not at its regular time of 2pm ET.

That’s right, in a year when the monthly budget deficit was meandering along in the merry Chernobyl way, not great, not terrible, someone in the Biden admin had the brilliant idea to spend a metric asston of money to reboot the economy so we don’t get a recession just in time for the elections, and sure enough, government spending went into absolutely epic overdrive, as outlays hit a mindblowing $686 billion, the highest since March 2023, and only a handful of crisis months during the covid crash saw greater government spending in any given month.

Here is another way to show the data: smoothing out for outlier months, by presenting the 6 month moving average: well, it just hit the highest… since covid!

For those wondering how government receipts have performed during this period of exploding spending, here is the answer:

… which is remarkable because while spending is absolutely exploding, revenues have also managed to bounce back, largely thanks to capital gains taxes on the surging stock market.

Yet looking at the dire big picture, it is unfortunately all downhill from here for one simple reason: we have now crossed the Minsky Moment in terms of how much the US spends on interest on its debt, which as regular readers know is hitting a new record high every day – it just closed above $35.3 trillion – and is growing by about $1 trillion every 100 days. That means that with interest rates at 40 year highs, the prediction we made last July, has finally come true because according to today’s Budget statement, the amount spent on gross interest in August was $92.3 billion…

… which means that the cumulative total for Fiscal 2024 – where there is one more month to go until the end of the fiscal year (which ends Sept 30) – just hit an all time high of $1.049 trillion, the first time in history when interest on US debt has surpassed $1 trillion.

And what’s worse, this number is not even annualized (as explained, it’s just for 11 months of the year): annualized, US debt comes out to $1.158 trillion, or $1.2 trillion rounded up as the Treasury Department itself admits…

… and the stunning punchline is that as of today, gross interest on US debt has surpassed not just Defense spending, but also Income Security, Health, Veterans Benefits and Medicare, and is now the second biggest outlay of the US government, second only to Social Security, which is roughly $1.5 trillion annualized.

But wait, there’s more: the latest numbers confirm that we are well on our way to hitting our other forecast from April 1, of the US hitting an insane $1.6 trillion in interest expense by the year-end…

… which mean interest expense will soon surpass Social Security spending and become the single largest outlay of the US government, some time in late 2024 or early 2025 at the earliest.

In other words, game over.

Which begs the question: why would Trump even want to be in charge when the house of cards finally comes crashing down. Let Kamala have it…

END

Inflation Expectations Rebound In September As Partisan Gaps In Sentiment Surge

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 10:09 AM

After a hope-filled rebound in August, analysts expect UMich Sentiment in preliminary August data to show further improvements with inflation expectations flat. They were right in their prediction as the headline sentiment beat expectations (69.0 vs 68.5 exp), as did the current conditions and expectations sub-indices.

Source: Bloomberg

The gain was led by an improvement in buying conditions for durables, driven by more favorable prices as perceived by consumers.

Year-ahead expectations for personal finances and the economy both improved as well, despite a modest weakening in views of labor markets.

However, more notably, medium-term inflation expectations picked up (while short-dated expectations – which largely reflect oil prices – fell to their lowest since Dec 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that confidence continued to rise for Democrats, was flat for Independents, and slid further among Republicans…

Source: Bloomberg

Consistent with their divergent views of the implications of a Harris presidency for the economy, partisan gaps in sentiment inched up.

Note that interviews for this release concluded prior to Tuesday’s debate; a more comprehensive look at election expectations will be released next week.

III  USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

LOS ANGELES

my goodness! just look at the criminality on this company

(zerohedge)

Meet The California Car Rental Company At The Center Of A Massive National Theft Ring

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 10:15 PM

A California car rental company was found to be at the center of a nationwide crime-tourism spree, authorities in Los Angeles revealed this week. 

U.S. Attorney Martin Estrada said during a news conference in on Wednesday: “Those thinking they can come to our country, take advantage of our liberties and steal from the American people should think again.”

Estrada claimed that two operators of Driver Power Rentals, a Los Angeles car rental company, brought in South American criminals to steal millions in cash and property from businesses and homes in Southern California and nationwide, according to KFOX TV.

“There will be serious consequences for those people and we will collaborate with our local partners in creative ways to make sure we’re holding you accountable,” Estrada added.

“These defendants facilitated and directed crime tourists who committed hundreds of robberies across the country – in essence, they acted as quarterbacks for a team of thieves. We will continue to work with our local partners to hold accountable those who would come to our country and take advantage of our liberties to steal from the American people.”

The KFOX report writes that Juan Carlos Thola-Duran and his girlfriend, Ana Maria Arriagada, allegedly rented vehicles to criminals they directed to commit hundreds of crimes nationwide, including burglaries, thefts, and money laundering, according to a 46-count indictment.

The thefts spanned 80 cities and involved 120 cases, with the pair earning $5.5 million.

Most of the criminals were from Chile, taking advantage of a visa waiver program. The defendants also allegedly used stolen money to buy real estate and horses and fraudulently obtained $275,000 in COVID-19 relief loans.

Each defendant now faces a maximum of 30 years behind bars. 

Ventura County Sheriff James Fryhoff concluded: “Since 2019, we have arrested over 130 suspects responsible for perpetrating these crimes, with the vast majority using cars supplied by Driver Power Rentals.” 

end

PENNSYLVANIA

Migrant Population In Charleroi, Pennsylvania Explodes 2,000% As Crisis Unfolds

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 08:40 PM

Americans are quickly realizing that the Biden-Harris administration’s disastrous open southern border policies that flooded the nation with millions of unvetted illegal aliens from third-world countries are quickly overwhelming towns and local municipalities nationwide.

The nation has been shocked by the 20,000 Haitians that were dumped into Springfield, Ohio, by the Biden administration’s expansion of the Temporary Protected Status program for immigrants from that failed Caribbean nation. By the way, the small town only had 58,000 before the migrant crisis began. 

Springfield resident Diana Daniels told Fox News on Thursday that life in the metro area, with thousands of Haitian migrants, has been chaotic. She said local resources like housing and health care are quickly being drained, warning it’s “like living in a dystopian nightmare.”

Another Springfield resident is frustrated with the Biden-Harris team importing the third world into the first world: 

“I see what’s going on in the streets. And I see you guys sitting up there and, comfy chairs and suits… I really challenge you guys to get out here and do something, said Anthony Harris, 28, adding, “These Haitians are running into trash cans. They’re running into buildings. They’re flipping cars in the middle of the street, and I don’t know how like, y’all can be comfortable with this.”

And another…

This is an absolutely insane video.

A Springfield, Ohio homeless advocate tells the city council that landlords are kicking people out of their homes and replacing them with Haitians and that the Biden-Harris government is paying them to do it.

He says he personally knows… pic.twitter.com/edNKl4tpDz

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 12, 2024

Besides Springfield, Americans were shocked weeks ago to find out that Venezuelan prison gangs were roaming parts of a Denver metro area, causing chaos and seizing apartment buildings. Leaked US Army documents show there are thousands of Venezuelan prison gang members, some of which are armed and dangerous, running amok nationwide. And America’s top oil-producing region in West Texas has been under threat by migrant gangs. This indicates that the nation’s critical energy infrastructure is at risk. 

Back to small towns overwhelmed by migrants, the next area to focus on is Charleroi, Pennsylvania, a small town 21 miles south of Pittsburgh, with a population of around 4,200, according to 2020 Census data. 

The new think tank America 2100 wrote in a post on X that the blue-collar town of Charleroi has seen its migrant population soar by 2,000% over the past two years. The group said the migrants are mainly Haitians. This is very similar to the situation in Springfield, of what appears to be the Biden-Harris team precision dumping migrants in small bull-collar towns. 

“Why was it [migrants] all dumped on us? We’re not being funded with anything, okay. And again, we can’t even make ends meet with our budget. So, now, how are we going to get all this extra revenue to pay for it [caring for migrants]?” Councilman Larry Celaschi of Charleroi told America 2100 in a phone interview. 

It isn't just Springfield. It's happening everywhere.

In Charleroi, Pennsylvania—a low-income town of just 4,000—the immigrant population has increased by 2,000% over the past two years. And it's almost all Haitians.

Here's what one Charleroi councilman told us today: pic.twitter.com/Wkwv56Tnw5

— America 2100 (@America_2100) September 11, 2024

In Charleroi, PA, the Haitian population has grown 2,000% in two years.

There's a huge spike in car crashes. (Sound familiar?)

Now, one town councilman told us, they'll need signs in Creole—"so they can understand what the hell to do when they get behind the wheel of a car." 🔊 pic.twitter.com/XDsSoN3GXD

— America 2100 (@America_2100) September 11, 2024

The spread of migrant chaos overwhelming local municipalities across the nation is only expected to worsen. Readers were supplied with a list of the areas across the country that obstruct immigration enforcement and shield criminals from ICE. These areas will likely experience a migrant crisis and are to be avoided for safety travel reasons. 

• Is The Cloward-Piven Strategy Being Used To Destroy America?

Ten years later… 

Is The Migrant Invasion Part Of The Cloward-Piven Strategy To Collapse The Nation?  https://t.co/PM5jz9XcoL

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 12, 2024

Overloading small towns with migrants is destabilizing. What’s the reasoning Biden-Harris? 

END

SPRINGFIELD OHIO

Ohio Sending Troopers, Funding To Springfield Over Haitian Influx

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 07:00 PM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Ohio’s governor says he is sending law enforcement officials and millions of dollars in health care resources to Springfield, a city at the center of a national spotlight on Haitian illegal immigrants.

Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican, said he doesn’t oppose the Temporary Protected Status program under which some 15,000 Haitians have arrived in the city of about 59,000 people since 2020. However, he said, the federal government must do more to help impacted communities.

In a news conference on Sept. 10, DeWine said that “dramatic surges” in illegal immigrants “impact every citizen of the community,” adding that the small Ohio cities of Lima and Findlay also have had influxes.

“The federal government simply has to be part of the solution,” the governor said. “They have to step up. It’s their policies that have created these surges.”

He said the influx affects “moms who have to wait hours in a waiting room with a sick child, everyone who drives on the streets, and it affects children who go to school in more-crowded classrooms.”

On Sept. 11, the Ohio State Highway Patrol is being dispatched to help local police with traffic issues in Springfield.

City officials and social media posts have indicated that Haitian drivers are frequently involved in accidents and crashes, the governor said.

“The goal, of course, is to reduce dangerous driving regardless of who the driver is,” he said.

DeWine said he is also earmarking $2.5 million over two years for more primary health care through the county health department and private health care institutions.

Controversy over migrants in Springfield erupted earlier this month after some social media users said that Haitian immigrants were eating people’s pets, as well as ducks from a park.

People who spoke at town hall events, videos of which were uploaded online, also said that the immigrants frequently crash their vehicles, camp, and squat on locals’ property, cannot speak English, and haven’t tried to assimilate into the broader American culture.

The allegations were enhanced by Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), the Republican vice presidential nominee, who said on social media that “people have had their pets abducted and eaten by people who shouldn’t be in this country.” He added that immigrants are allegedly “causing chaos all over Springfield.”

In a newer post on Sept. 10, Vance wrote that his office received inquiries about the claims and that it’s possible “that all of these rumors turn out to be false.”

In a statement on Sept. 10, Springfield Strategic Engagement Manager Karen Graves told The Epoch Times, “There have been no credible reports or specific claims of pets being harmed, injured, or abused by individuals within the immigrant community.”

Multiple requests to the Springfield Police Division for comment have not been returned.

Halt in Deportations

Earlier this year, the Department of Homeland Security announced Temporary Protected Status for Haitians who arrived in the United States before June 3, including those who entered illegally, protecting them from being deported back to Haiti.

DeWine’s family operates a charity in Haiti, which has built a network of schools. Earlier this year, a school founded by the charity was forced to close as armed gangs took over swaths of Haiti in the latest round of unrest to hit the impoverished country, the Ohio governor told reporters.

Long considered the poorest nation in the Western Hemisphere, Haiti has been beset by gang warfare since the country’s president, Jovenel Moise, was assassinated in July 2021. The U.S. Embassy currently lists the country as “Level 4—Do Not Travel,” because of crime, kidnappings, general unrest, and poor health care infrastructure.

“U.S. citizens in Haiti should depart Haiti as soon as possible by commercial or other privately available transportation options, in light of the current security situation and infrastructure challenges,” the embassy said in a bulletin last year, which hasn’t been updated.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

END

This could be extremely troublesome!

(EpochTimes)

Election Officials Warn Problems With US Mail Could Cause 2024 Voting Disruptions

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 10:20 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A coalition representing state and local election officials across the United States warned that problems with the nation’s mail system could disrupt voting in some areas, with just weeks to go before the 2024 presidential election.

In a Wednesday letter sent to the U.S. Postal Service’s postmaster, Louis DeJoy, the National Association of State Election Directors and the National Association of Secretaries of State said they have “ongoing concerns” about USPS’s ability to perform ahead of the Nov. 5 contest.

Over the past year, they warned, mailed ballots that were postmarked on time were received by local election offices days after the deadline to be counted. They also noted that properly addressed election mail was being returned to them as undeliverable, a problem that could automatically send voters to inactive status through no fault of their own, potentially creating chaos when those voters show up to cast a ballot.

In that time period, “election officials across the country have raised serious questions about processing facility operations, lost or delayed election mail, and front-line training deficiencies impacting USPS’s ability to deliver election mail in a timely and accurate manner,” the letter stated.

Further, officials have told the two associations that mail sent to voters is being deemed “undeliverable” at higher than normal rates, sometimes in instances where a “voter is known not to have moved.”

“This has affected a range of election mail, including informational mailers about critical election information and voter address confirmation cards, as well as ballots,” the letter said.

Despite the alleged issues, the groups said that repeated attempts to contact the USPS to resolve them did not result in changes, adding that the mail delivery problems result from “a pervasive lack of understanding and enforcement of USPS policies among its employees.”

“We implore you to take immediate and tangible corrective action to address the ongoing performance issues with USPS election mail service,” they said. “Failure to do so will risk limiting voter participation and trust in the election process.”

Responding to their letter, the USPS said that it is equipped to deal with mail-in ballots. But the Postal Service said that voters who wish to submit ballots through the mail should not procrastinate.

“We are ready to deliver. We were successful in 2020 delivering a historic volume of mail in ballots; also in 2022 and will do so again in November 2024,” Adrienne Marshall, director of Election Mail and Government Services, said in a statement.

In December, the Postal Service said in a news release that it has consistently delivered mail and packages to 98 percent of the U.S. population in fewer than three days during peak volume periods.

DeJoy responded to previous criticism of his handling of the USPS in a Washington Post opinion article published in July, also noting that 98 percent of Americans received their mail and packages within three days. However, he noted that the service has suffered in recent times due to what he called “degraded operating conditions.”

“Although we have slipped recently because of difficulties in overcoming our degraded operating conditions while opening new facilities, and remodeling and repositioning existing ones, we will soon be back to a performance level that can make the nation proud,” he said.

The National Association of State Election Directors, described as an organization of state election directors, and the National Association of Secretaries of State, a coalition of all U.S. secretaries of state, have not responded to an Epoch Times request for comment. The Epoch Times contacted USPS for additional comment on Wednesday but received no response by publication time.

During the 2020 election, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, election officials in multiple states expanded vote-by-mail efforts. After the conclusion of that election, former President Donald Trump said that mail-in ballots can lead to election fraud. However, in 2024, he has urged GOP voters to vote by mail, early in-person, or on Election Day itself.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

USA/BRAZIL/BEEF PRICES

Expect higher prices for beef because of juggernaut problems in Brazil and the uSA

(zerohedge)

“Unwelcome News” For Consumers: Ag Juggernaut Brazil’s Beef Supplies To Slide Amid Cattle Crunch In US 

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 06:00 PM

The combination of extremely tight beef supplies in the US, with the national cattle herd size sliding to the lowest levels since 1951 and new estimates of declining beef production in agricultural juggernaut Brazil, points to elevated burger prices for the foreseeable future, yet more bad news for cash-strapped consumers struggling with rampant food inflation.

Bloomberg cited consulting firm Datagro analyst Joao Otavio Figueiredo’s presentation at a conference in Sao Paulo this week, which noted Brazil’s cattle availability is expected to decline as early as next year. This essentially means the cost of producing beef will rise, straining global supplies of red meat at a time when the South American country has ramped up exports of beef to the US. 

Figueiredo expects Brazil’s animal slaughter rates to fall 4.6% next year and 7.5% in 2026. This means that years of expanding beef production capacity in South America are ending abruptly. This is happening at a time when US companies are turning to Brazil for beef supplies to counter extremely tight domestic supplies, the lowest since 1951. 

“The reduction in the Brazilian cattle herd comes when beef production is already constrained by a severe shortage of slaughter-weight animals in the US, which has eroded profits for processors such as Tyson Foods Inc. and Cargill Inc. That is unwelcome news for JBS SA, Marfrig Global Foods SA and Minerva SA, which rely on Brazilian cattle for a sizable share of their beef output,” Bloomberg noted. 

Notice how US meat imports from Brazil have ramped up in the last several years.

Data from Statista shows that in 2022 , the imports of beef from Canada and Mexico to the US were 51%, while Brazil was in the number three spot with 14%. 

No one is coming to the rescue to save the rapidly deteriorating US beef cattle herd.

Retail ground beef prices at the supermarket continue marching higher.

According to VP Harris, the solution to rising beef and food prices is communist price controls… 

We don’t expect a meaningful rebound in the nation’s beef cattle supply until at least 2026. It will take years.

Maybe the Fed can print more beef? Oh wait, no, but you know who can: Bill Gates.

END

what a joke!!

DHS Secretary Mayorkas Criticizes Texas’s Handling Of The Border

Thursday, Sep 12, 2024 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas criticized Texas’s attempts to stop illegal immigration while praising Vice President Kamala Harris’s role in addressing the “root causes” of the border crisis.

Mayorkas spoke Sept. 6 at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin.

The annual festival hosts a slate of political speakers, newsmakers, and journalists who discuss current events.

“This is the first time that in my 20 to 22 years of government service that I have seen a state act in direct contravention of national interests,” Mayorkas said.

Some 10 million illegal immigrants have entered the United States since President Joe Biden took office in January 2021. In March 2021, he put Harris in charge of dealing with illegal immigration. Harris, now the Democratic Party nominee for president, faces criticism for the border crisis as the 2024 election draws near.

Texas has spent $11 billion on Operation Lone Star, deploying thousands of Texas National Guard soldiers and Texas Department of Public Safety troopers, transporting illegal immigrants to self-declared sanctuary cities, installing strategic barriers, and building the state’s border wall, according to Andrew Mahaleris, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s press secretary.

Texas’s Operation Lone Star was introduced in March 2021 to address “dangerous gaps” in border security created by Biden and Harris, Mahaleris said in an email to The Epoch Times.

Those efforts have decreased illegal border crossings by 85 percent, he said.

“Until President Biden and Border Czar Harris step up and do their jobs to secure the border, Texas will continue utilizing every tool and strategy to respond,” Mahaleris said.

Mayorkas called Abbott’s efforts to bus illegal immigrants to other states and cities without notice to or coordination with receiving cities “incomprehensible” and not good governance.

“Is it purely to wreak havoc and disorder in the receiving communities to make a political point?” Mayorkas said.

He also criticized Senate Bill 4, which Abbott signed into law and was meant to go into effect on March 5, but it instead remains in limbo after the Biden administration sued. Mayorkas said immigration is the federal government’s responsibility.

SB 4 makes crossing into Texas unlawfully from a foreign nation a state felony and empowers state and local law enforcement to make arrests and carry out deportations. The law has some similarities to a 2010 Arizona law that ended up being mostly struck down in a 5–4 Supreme Court decision in 2012. Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has said the Supreme Court got the Arizona decision wrong and that it needs to be relitigated.

In Austin, Mayorkas defended Harris, saying she had done her job in addressing the “root causes” of mass migration to the United States.

“The vice president has done an extraordinary job in a public-private partnership driving resources to the countries in the Northern Triangle: El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala specifically,” he said.

The public–private partnerships invest in those countries to build industries and generate jobs as a way of addressing why migrants leave their countries, he said.

Root causes include violence, poverty, extreme weather events, and corruption, he said.

Mayorkas said the Senate’s failed bipartisan border bill would have helped control immigration, but “forces stepped in to prevent the solution.”

Republicans blocked the bill twice, and former President Donald Trump said it would do more harm than good, writing on Truth Social that it gives border shutdown authority only after 5,000 illegal immigrant encounters per day.

Trump maintains that the president has the authority to close the border like he did without additional legislation.

Tensions between congressional Republicans and Mayorkas caused the House of Representatives to impeach him on Feb. 13. However, the effort died in the Democrat-controlled Senate.

Mayorkas did not address the potential for a new wave of illegal immigrants following the resumption of a controversial parole program and a coordinated effort with Mexico to assist migrants to the U.S. border.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), which is part of the Department of Homeland Security, announced on Aug. 23 that its updated CBP One app was expanded to operate south of Mexico City for migrants seeking appointments at U.S. ports of entry.

The app allows would-be illegal immigrants to be processed for asylum claims by CBP agents at ports of entry in border states, with most being released into the country.

Mexico recently announced that it will offer migrants in the southern parts of its country free bus rides and meals to the U.S. southern border if they have a confirmed appointment through the app.

A few weeks ago, Mexico was rounding up migrants and busing them back to the southern part of Mexico, where the app wasn’t in operation.

The result was a decrease in illegal immigrants crossing the U.S.–Mexico border between ports of entry.

Homeland Security has also resumed its parole program after it shut down over fraud concerns revealed by a government watchdog agency. The Federation for American Immigration Reform obtained the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services report, which showed instances in which the same Social Security numbers, addresses, and phone numbers were used hundreds of times.

Up to 30,000 foreign nationals from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela are allowed to fly directly into U.S. airports every month under the program.

The program was resumed with additional vetting of the sponsors, their financial records, and their criminal backgrounds, a Homeland Security spokesperson said on Aug. 29.

The program enables most to stay up to two years and receive work permits.

Parole applicants need a sponsor and to purchase their airplane tickets to qualify for the program.

Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) has called the mass parole an “unlawful” program that was introduced to obscure the problem of an overrun border.

END

BOEING

going on strike…

(zerohedge)

33,000 Boeing Union Workers Go On Strike, First Major Walkout Since 2008

Friday, Sep 13, 2024 – 07:45 AM

Members of the International Association of Machinists And Aerospace Workers, which represents 33,000 Boeing employees at factories near Seattle and elsewhere, overwhelmingly rejected a ‘historic contract offer‘ with the troubled planemaker and voted to go on strike. 

.com/zerohedge/status/1834453192895086653

IAM said 94.6% of union members rejected the contract offer from Boeing, which called the offer “historic” and highlighted the 25% wage increase over four years as “the largest-ever general wage increase.” About 96% of union members approved the strike, now unfolding at the planemaker’s Seattle factories that make the 737 Max. 

h

BREAKING: @Boeing machinists vote to STRIKE, effective immediately. This means 32,000 @IAM751 and W24 members are on the picket lines starting TONIGHT. Vote to strike was 96% for it pic.twitter.com/gBUKmkRYOn

— Ryan Simms (@RyanTVnews) September 13, 2024

The union released this statement:

“We are incredibly proud of the hard work and dedication shown by the negotiating teams from District 751 and W24 and the unwavering solidarity of our membership. Their tireless efforts have been on display throughout this entire process. Now, they will regroup and begin planning the next steps on securing an agreement that our membership can approve.

“We will make every resource available for our District 751 and W24 members during this challenging time. IAM members from across North America stand in solidarity with our members in the Pacific Northwest and California. Our goal is to get a strong contract that meets the needs of our members.”

Jon Holden, president of IAM District 751, said this labor action “has been a long time coming, our members spoke loud and clear tonight,” adding, “Clearly there were aspects of this agreement that weren’t good enough.” 

The last time Boeing machinists went on strike was September 7, 2008. At the time, the strike was over job security, outsourcing, pay, and benefits.

Now, as explained by Holden, union workers at Boeing have been plagued with 16 years of stagnated wages. This comes as Bidenomics backfires on the economy, with elevated inflation and high interest rates financially crushing the working poor.

He said, “There’s a lot at stake here for our members, so I am proud of them. And we’re going to get back to the table as quickly as we can.” 

Boeing told Bloomberg it remains “committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union, and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement.”

In premarket trading in New York, Boeing shares are down around 4%. As of Thursday’s close, shares were down nearly 38% on the year. 

“Boeing has been in a financially difficult situation since the January 5 accident exposed deficiencies at its factories and forced the planemaker to reduce production. The company has been bleeding cash as a result, and its credit rating is hovering one step above speculative grade as it contends with a heavy debt load of $45 billion,” Bloomberg noted. 

Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about the labor action:

Jefferies analyst Sheila Kahyaoglu (buy, PT $270)

• “The magnitude of the strike’s impact will be dependent on its duration”
• The company was hit by a 58-day strike in 2008 — delaying >100 aircraft deliveries
• “Boeing stated that it was ready to get back to the table and reach a new agreement,” Kahyaoglu writes

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Tim Bacchus

• Boeing’s latest strike, even an extended one, “might have relatively little impact on Asian and Mideast airlines”
• “In Europe, Ryanair is most exposed as it expects eleven 737 MAX 8 deliveries, nine which are unfinished”

Since Boeing is the single largest US exporter, an extended work stoppage at commercial jet factories would result in fewer exports, contributing to lower GDP growth. 

Furthermore, depending on the length of the labor action, it could spark serious issues for nearly 10,000 Boeing suppliers that can be found across the US. 

end

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report September 13, 2024 Issue 7326

Independent View of the News

US August Monthly Budget Statement: -$380.1B, -$292.5B consensus, -$243.7B (largely ignored!)   Team Obama-Harris is pouring juice into the economy ahead of the election! Interest payments on the national debt top $1 trillion as deficit swells The U.S. budget deficit surged in August, edging closer to $2 trillion for the full year… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/12/interest-payments-on-the-national-debt-top-1-trillion-as-deficit-swells.html   Elon Musk notes that interest on US debt exceeds ‘the entire Defense Department budget.’   August PPI 0.2% m/m & 1.7% y/y, 0.1% m/m & 1.7% y/y expected; prior 0.0% from 0.1% m/m August Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 2.4% y/y, 0.2% m/m & 2.4% expected; prior -0.2% m/m from 0.0%   The ECB cut its deposit rate to 3.5% from 3.75% as expected.   Gold hit an all-time high on Thursday.  Equities and bonds declined smartly in early NYSE trading.  The yen/$ was 142 and change.  Oil and gasoline rallied.   Bloomberg: China is poised to cut interest rates on more than $5 trillion of outstanding mortgages as early as this month, as it accelerates a move to reduce the borrowing costs for millions of families to spur consumption. Some banks are making final preparations to get ready for the upcoming adjustments on mortgage rates. Some homeowners may enjoy up to 50 basis points of immediate rate reduction…     A Bloomberg gauge of Chinese developer shares plunged 8.3% this week to the lowest in four months, after some builders were removed from a program that connects the mainland bourses to the Hong Kong. https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/09/12/china-to-cut-rates-on-5-trillion-mortgages-as-soon-as-september/   ESUs opened lower on Wednesday night and traded sideways until they jumped after 21:30 ET.  They rallied until an exhaustion spike appeared at 3:27 ET.  ESUs then fell 11 handles by 4:00 ET.  After a moderate rebound, ESUs returned to range trading.  After a very brief spike to a daily high of 5851.50 on the August PPI release, ESUs commenced a decline that took ESUs to a daily low of 5540.25 at 9: 50 ET.   After a near-vertical rebound near 10:17 ET, ESUs vacillated in a wide range until they exploded higher at 12:50 ET.  ESUs soared and formed at double top of 5606.50 & 5607.00 at 13:55 ET and 14:47 ET.  Traders then dumped; ESUs tumbled to 5578.00 at 14:52 ET.  The last-hour rally took ESUs to 5605.00 at 15:43 ET.  With evidence of solid resistance two handles or less away, traders liquidated.  ESUs fell 5594.24 at 15:49 ET.  The final rally took ESUs to 5604.00 at 16:00 ET.   @charliebilello: The most absurd number in CPI? According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 31% over the last 2 years and 10% over the last 5 years... https://t.co/l5IYmkf6Ih   The BLS deceitfully uses medical insures’ retained earnings in their healthcare inflation tabulation.     Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied; another rally after an early tumble during NYSE trading Equity indices are breaking out of negative technical patterns.   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined; gasoline, oil, and industrial commodities rallied sharply.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Why is volatility accelerating?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5577.32 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5600.71; 5406.96   Former top Clinton adviser Mark Penn calls on ABC to launch internal probe into whether debate was rigged – “I actually think they should do a full internal investigation, hire an outside law firm. I don’t know how much of this was planned in advance,” Penn told the John Solomon Reports podcast. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/mark-penn-calls-abc-news-launch-internal-probe-moderators-fact-checking   This post, which has gone viral, ALLEGES an ABC whistleblower has detailed debate cheating. The affidavit states how the Harris campaign was given sample questions which were essentially the same questions that were given during the debate and separate assurances of fact checking Donald Trump and that she would NOT be fact checked…. https://x.com/DocNetyoutube/status/1834280373230207089    “The affidavit was pretty explosive. It talks about specific communications with ABC and Harris campaign and how they dictated this debate.”… Only if the whistleblower is lying. But the fact that they did this affidavit before the debate, and it is dated and notarized before the debate is very damning.   @wikileaks: Leaked email shows CNN’s Donna Brazile, now head of DNC, tipped off Clinton campaign about debate question. https://x.com/wikileaks/status/786225211481792514 (Brazile is currently an ABC News contributor!  You can’t make this up!)   We ignored the post about the ABC whistleblower; but then Mark Penn surfaced.  He knows something!   What is DIS CEO Iger doing?  He should be third-degreeing ABC execs.    “… THERE WILL BE NO THIRD DEBATE!” — Trump on TRUTH Social (Full DJT post at link) https://x.com/TheFirstonTV/status/1834326593147171182/photo/1   It appears Trump has checked his ego, a rarity, and taken a prudent course.  Polls are in his favor; make Harris get out and sell herself and her platform.  Force Kamala to hold press conferences.  PS – The louder Team Obama-Harris brays for another debate and calls Trump ‘chicken,’ the stronger the evidence that their polling shows Harris is not doing well.   A Trump internal poll show DJT got a boost after the debate; Harris did not. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1834312310342463907   BBG’s @jeneps: New: VP Harris will begin a more aggressive phase of campaigning today in NC as she tries to capitalize on debate, her team says. Big rallies. More interviews, w battleground press in coming days & NABJ next wk. Ads w debate footage. Walz & surrogates traveling widely this wknd.      @JDVance: Kamala’s campaign is seeing the same thing we’re seeing.  Despite the fake pundit narrative, their numbers just aren’t good. So, they’re changing strategies…   Harris at her NC rally: “We owe it to the voters to have another debate.” (Earlier she refused 2 debates)   @GrrrGraphics: What has Giggles been drinking? Holy crap Kamala is smashed!  (Harris mocking DJT for not having a plan to replace Obamacare is like Al Capone haranguing someone for speeding.) https://x.com/GrrrGraphics/status/1834324763394932790   For some odd reason, Kamala is touting Dick Cheney’s endorsement.  Some supporters are not pleased. https://x.com/ajlamesa/status/1834326700412510230   @ajlamesa: It is difficult to overstate how upsetting it is to hear the Democratic nominee celebrate support from Dick Cheney — an unapologetic defender of waterboarding, torture, and an illegal war that caused hundreds of thousands of deaths.  As a supporter of her campaign, I am asking her to remove this sentence from all future speeches…   Harris campaign silent on House bill banning contracts with ‘Chinese military company’ amid Walz ties – One of the companies called out in the act, Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI), has been labeled a “Chinese military company” by the Pentagon and has done extensive work with a medical research institute with deep ties to Walz… (Can you imagine the outrage if this were DJT or Vance?)   Fed Balance Sheet: +$2.434B; Reserves at Fed: +$77.816B (plenty of juice to fuel stocks & gold)   Biden appears close to allowing Ukraine to launch long-range Western weapons deep inside Russian territory, as long as it doesn’t use arms provided by the U.S., European officials say. – NYT   @disclosetv: Putin on the potential use of Western long-range weapons against Russia: “This would mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European nations are at war with Russia.“ https://x.com/JasonButtrill/status/1834288524306079905   This seems like a big deal.  Are you comfortable that Biden and Harris are in control of the USA?   Just the News: Trump pledges to eliminate taxes on overtime work https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/all-things-trump/trump-pledges-eliminate-taxes-overtime-work   Today – Traders will play for the Friday Rally.  Traders, the majority of which are almost always bulls, are now emboldened by the dynamic rallies of the past two sessions.   Major equity indices are breaking out of down trends that formed at the end of August.  The S&P 500 Index is 1.32% from an all-time high; and traders love to ‘shoot for the numbers.’    5607, yesterday’s high, is strong resistance for ESUs.  5600.71 was the S&P 500 high.  If they these thresholds are breached with gusto, “to the moon, Alice!”   Expected Economic Data: Aug Import Price Index 0.2% m/m & 0.9% y/y, Export Price Index -0.2% m/m; Sept UM Sentiment 68.4, Current Conditions 61.5, Expectations 71.3, 1-year Inflation 2.7%, 5-10-year Inflation 3.0%   NQUs are +17.00; ESUs are +5.00; the Yen/$ is 141.28; and USUs are +15/32 at 20:1 ET.  S&P Index 50-day MA: 5509; 100-day MA: 5400; 150-day MA: 5306; 200-day MA: 5167 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,335; 100-day MA: 39,630; 150-day MA: 39,359; 200-day MA: 38,854 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5595.76 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5274.15 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5606.12 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5525.19 triggers a sell signal   Did you know that an ABC moderator of the Harris-Trump debate was Kamala’s sorority sister?   ABC News Journalist Linsey Davis Is a Member of Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Incorporated During last night’s presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump, ABC News journalist Linsey Davis served as a moderator alongside David Muir. Davis and Harris are sorors, as she is also a member of Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority… https://clutchpoints.com/abc-news-journalist-linsey-davis-is-a-member-of-alpha-kappa-alpha-sorority-incorporated   @breeadail: @ABC Linsey Davis, who moderated last night’s Presidential Debate, had a MAJOR conflict of interest: She is a sorority sister of @KamalaHarris, and bragged about it on record, years ago. https://x.com/breeadail/status/1834028685189427207   Why didn’t DJT point this out?  Why didn’t DJT immediately rebuke ABC moderators for their egregious bias and the fact that their boss is a Harris BFF?  Trump does not listen well and/or does not process information and formulate quick responses very well.  He apparently does not read the table well.  If you’re in a poker game and you cannot figure out who is the patsy after 30 minutes, you’re the patsy.   Dr. Naomi Wolf, renowned feminist, author, scholar, and ex-advisor to Bill Clinton/Al Gore believes that Kamala Harris used audio earrings, at the debate.  Several people posted pictures during and after the debate of Harris’ earnings and similar looking listening aides.   @naomirwolf: That is an unusual hairstyle for her actually, covering the right ear so carefully. Go back to the debate and take a look at how she looks into the middle distance after Trump says something and stops talking — that is a listening micro-expression — and then takes a beat before she replies. https://x.com/naomirwolf/status/1834030804361760804   ABC’s Stephanopoulos noting while on air that Harris and Linsey Davis are sorority sisters. https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1834173310235533810   @TTAVOfficial: SHE’S WEARING EARPHONE EARRINGS – NOVA H1 Audio Earrings – the first and only wireless earphones embedded in a pair of pearl earrings on a gold- or silver-plated clip. LOOK AT HER EARRINGS! Busted!  https://x.com/TTAVOfficial/status/1833698559826219163   Respected journalist John Solomon investigated Earringsgate.   Company responds to theory Harris wore audio earrings at debate: ‘The resemblance is striking’ “To ensure a level playing field for both candidates, we are currently developing a male version and will soon be able to offer it to the Trump campaign,” the company said.     On Tuesday night, Harris wore what appeared to be gold and pearl earrings while debating former President Donald Trump. Social media users compared the earrings to NOVA H1 Audio Earrings, which are wireless earphones. Media outlets and other social media users examined the earrings, coming to the conclusion that Harris’ earrings are from Tiffany & Co., not NOVA products… https://justthenews.com/nation/culture/company-responds-theory-harris-wore-audio-earrings-pres-debate-resemblance-striking   NY Post: Company says Kamala Harris’ debate earrings strikingly similar to their Bluetooth device, offers to make ones for Trump – Fact-checking websites quickly shot down those claims.    Meanwhile, Trump appeared to add to the Harris conspiracies Wednesday, suggesting to Fox News that the veep had received advance knowledge of what would be discussed. “They had a rigged show with somebody that maybe even had the answers,” he said. “I mean, I’ll be honest, I watched her talk and I said, ‘You know, she seems awfully familiar with the questions.’” https://trib.al/lrgX3Uc   @WallStreetApes: American from the same island as the Ohio Haitian illegal migrants: “The Haitian immigrants are indeed eating animals. Let me tell you something about these people. Not only are they harvesting cats for food, but also for witchcraft purposes, voodoo purposes… https://t.co/TjNwStEJ4d   @TheCalvinCooli1: Mahomes responds to Swift endorsement, “I don’t want my place and my platform to be used to endorse a candidate or do whatever, either way. It’s to inform people to do their own research and then make the best decision for them and their family.”   @charliekirk11: Ohio Governor Mike DeWine is now sending State Troopers into Springfield, OH along with millions in funding to address the Haitian migrant crisis there, saying: “The federal government has not demonstrated that they have any kind of plan to deal with the issue.” What’s happened to the residents of Springfield is criminal. A town of 50,000 Americans does not deserve to be inundated by 20,000 foreigners, ever. Heads need to roll. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1833944452987322540   @TrumpWarRoom: Hugh Hewitt: Kamala did not answer one question, nor did ABC ask one question about China, Iran, Israeli hostages.  “I am so amazed with the unprofessionalism.”   The many, nasty faces of Kamala Harris: VP only reinforced the fatal inauthenticity of her debate performance – The former president, winging it as usual, missed numerous “kill shots,” was frustratingly imprecise and allowed himself to be baited by Kamala Harris.   But on the optics, Harris committed far worse self-harm…     Her expression would switch between narrowed-eye incredulity, smug contempt, pursed-lip amusement, a condescending smirk, a tilted head, a disapproving eyebrow, a thrusting chin, eye-rolling, head-shaking, a little macho shoulder swagger, and even a ridiculous chin-holding pose…    But to any normal viewer, her Marcel Marceau shtick was puerile, distracting and very fake… https://nypost.com/2024/09/11/opinion/the-many-nasty-faces-of-kamala-harris-vp-only-reinforced-the-fatal-inauthenticity-of-her-debate-performance/   Citizen-journalist fact-checked Harris’ debate lies and filled social media with the results.   @EricLDaugh: Florida radio show host ROLLS THE TAPE of Kamala explicitly saying she wants to take people’s guns. The media said Trump LIED during the debate – he did not.   KAMALA: “I support buybacks. It’s something I’m so passionate about, and so looking forward to be president – to address […] It’s mandatory.”… https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1834223025962545417   @thereal_SnS: (Harris) “I’m going to take your guns and I don’t care if it’s an overreach of my authority.”  https://x.com/thereal_SnS/status/1833869005632717181   Harris once boasted of ‘behind the scenes’ work to get ‘every’ trans inmate access to gender surgeries (She lied about this at the debate) https://t.co/3x99dlLxiG   Everything You Need to Know About Kamala in Her Own Words in One Place https://www.breitbart.com/2024-election/2024/09/12/everything-you-need-to-know-about-kamala-in-her-own-words-in-one-place/   @kristina_wong: Kamala Harris claiming there is “not one” US service member in a combat zone for the first time this century was not only false but an EASY opening for Marine veteran @JDVance   JD Vance: VP Harris Doesn’t Know ‘We Have Troops in Harm’s Way,’ She Is Not Fit to Serve Just a couple of weeks ago you had American troops who were seriously injured, likely by Iranian dragged back to militias… https://www.breitbart.com/clips/2024/09/11/jd-vance-vp-harris-doesnt-know-we-have-troops-in-harms-way-she-is-not-fit-to-serve/   @AnnCoulter: Trump is exactly right. David Muir lied: The Justice Department’s National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) shows a huge increase in violent crime from 2021 to 2022.  Muir’s claim to the contrary is based on a single unreliable source: the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, which are missing so much data that EVEN THE FBI DOESN’T TRUST THEM. https://anncoulter.com/2024/06/19/actually-senator/   Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon gently rebuking Kamala for bragging that Goldman endorsed her economic plan: “A lot more has been made of this than should be.” (Hours later Kamala cited GS.) https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1834245100827705416   @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala: “Goldman Sachs said my plan would grow the economy and his plan would shrink the economy.”  The Goldman Sachs CEO said earlier today that Kamala lied about this. https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1834362887868977508   ABC moderators eviscerated for not asking Trump the single most obvious question at debate: ‘This tells you everything’ – The moderators of the presidential debate hosted by ABC News have been criticized for not asking Donald Trump about the failed attempt on his life. David Muir and Linsey David quickly moved on after the Republican candidate for president mentioned being shot at one of his rallies in Pennsylvania during Tuesday’s debate… https://trib.al/Z5xgTrG   @SteveLovesAmmo: Tim Walz just said that Kamala Harris started her career as a “young prostitutor”.  That’s one hell of a Freudian slip… https://x.com/SteveLovesAmmo/status/1834380683709419666   EXCLUSIVE: Tim Walz Appointed Member of Political Party ‘loyal’ to Chinese Communists To State Board – Walz first appointed Chang Wang, a Minnesota-based attorney, to the Council On Asian Pacific Minnesotans in May 2020… But for over a decade, Wang has also been affiliated with the China Association For Promoting Democracy (CAPD), the DCNF found through a review of Chinese government announcements, archived University of Minnesota records and Chinese-language publications written by Wang himself… https://dailycaller.com/2024/09/12/exclusive-tim-walz-appointed-member-political-party-loyal-chinese-communists-state-board/   When Joe Biden donned the MAGA hat, he told the firemen at the firehouse, “No eating dogs or cats!”  https://x.com/DrewHLive/status/1834058736442454463   Viewing the clip of Joe Biden having fun and joking with PA firemen makes one sorry that ‘they’ put him through all that stuff.   Fox News host Sean Hannity is abruptly cut-off during migration monologue: ‘Something knocked us off air!’ https://trib.al/Gmlfq6C   AG Merrick Garland felt the need to appear on Thursday and proclaim that the US Department of Justice is not politized and is not weaponized against political figures.  Trump hit a nerve at the debate!   @MacFarlaneNews: SPEAKING NOW at Justice Department, US Attorney General Merrick Garland:    “We will not allow this nation to become a country where law enforcement is allowed to be used as an apparatus of politics. It’s dangerous and outrageous that you have to endure” the conspiracy theories that menace the agency and federal law enforcement officers.   Garland: “Our norms are a promise that we will not allow the Department to be treated as a political weapon.”   Newsweek’s @josh_hammer: Merrick Garland is convincing precisely no one right now that the DOJ isn’t corrupted and politicized.   Donald Trump prevails again in Georgia criminal case as judge orders 2 charges dismissed https://trib.al/QqLHcA3   @TheBabylonBee: Democrats Warn That Republicans Plan to Steal Election by Blocking Democrat Efforts to Steal Election https://buff.ly/3qERcDe

GREG HUNTER

SEE YOU ON MONDAY//