GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP$5.95 TO $2571.85

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0,29 TO $30.35

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2558,00

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.04

Bitcoin morning price:$59,930 DOWN 531 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $60,257 down 204 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN$10.25TO $973,15

Palladium price; DOWN 44.65TO $1063,75

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3480,90DOWN 11.60CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,508,98CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//SEPT 13 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1,936,66DOWN 18,13 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1966,85BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) SEPT 13/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,301,82 DOWN 11,39Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.327.23UROS PER OZ//SEPT 13//.2024)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

XCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,564.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/17/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 09/19/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 2
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 4
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 11 4

TOTAL: 12 12
MONTH TO DATE: 4,014

JPMorgan stopped 0/12

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 12 NOTICES FOR 1200 OZ or 0.0373 TONNES

total notices so far: 4014 contracts for 401,400 Oz (12.485 tonnes)

FOR SEPT:

SILVER NOTICES: 31 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 155,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 4,942 for 24.710 million oz

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $5.95 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 872,23 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 872,23TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.29 AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV FROM THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 461.079 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA HUGE SIZED 1649 CONTRACTS TO 140,605 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.10 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2594 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS DURING TUEDAY’S TRADING//. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE 945 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A SMALL 203 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 2594 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 203 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.10) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2594 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE HAD A HUGE 945 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 24.985 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT ADVANCES TO 24.985 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ MEGA HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) SMALL SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 203 CONTRACTS)/

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED XXX CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT, ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12DAYS, total 12,357contracts: OR 61,785 MILLION OZ (1029 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 61,785 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL PROBABLY BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 61.785 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1649 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:694 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 22.765 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO 24.985 MILLION OZ

WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2594 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A SMALL SIZED 203 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE MONDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (203) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .

WE HAD 31 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 155,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5703 OI CONTRACTS TO 537,627 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 356 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (5703 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $15.35 IN PRICE /TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TUESSDAYS SMALL 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING REDUCES TO 12.6936TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $15.35 LOSS N PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 254 OI CONTRACTS (0.79 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5499 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 537,627

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 254 CONTRACTS WITH 5703 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5347 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 254 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 719 CONTRACTS,

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5449 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 5703 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 254 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT 12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO LONDON

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 12.6836 TONNES.

/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 719 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 64,693 CONTRACTS OF 6,469,300 OZ OR 201,22TONNES IN 12TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5391 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 12TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 201.22 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 201.22DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5,66% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 201.22 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1649 CONTRACTS OI TO 138,956 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 945 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 945 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 945 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1649 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 945 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2594 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 12.97 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.10 GAIN IN PRICE

END

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

/ Nikkei CLOSED UP 176,95 OR 0.46 %//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.04%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0832 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0871 Oil UP TO 70,24 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.758Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3 CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5703 CONTRACTS TO 537,627 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $15.35 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS DESPITE THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5449). THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING AT MUCH LOWER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5449 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC 5449 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5449 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A TINY SIZED TOTAL OF 254 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5449 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 5703 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY SMALL GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $15.35/TUESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 719 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING/

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (12.6936 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 12.6811TONNES.

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $15.35/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 0.3172 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.885 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF A SMALL SIZED 400 OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCESTO: 12.6936 TONNES.

NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 12.6936 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $15.35

WE HAVE REMOVED 2831 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 102 CONTRACTS OR 10200 OZ (.3172

TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 172,076contracts poor

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

SEPT 18 SEPTEMBER GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE SEPT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	10,802,468 Oz 336 kilobars .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	12 notice(s) 1200 OZ 0.0373TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	67 contracts 6700 OZ 0.2083TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	4014notices 401,400oz 12.485 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits nil oz

withdrawals: 1

i) out of JPMorgan: 10,802,468 oz

336 kilobars

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 10,802,468oz

adjustments:1

i) Loomis 96,453 oz removed from customer account

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER

For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 79 contracts having LOST 29 contracts. We had 33 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 4 contracts or 400 oz will stand at the comex as these boys seek metal on THIS side of the pond.

OCTOBER GAINED 354 CONTRACTS UP TO 41,504 CONTRACTS

NOVEMBER LOST 14 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 326

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 5036 CONTRACTS TO 436,063

We had 12 contracts filed for today representing 1200 oz

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 33 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4014 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT 79 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (12x 100 oz per contract( equals 408,100 OZ OR 12.6936 ONNES.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (4014 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT (79, OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz which equals 408,100 oz (12.6936TONNES)

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 12.6936 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,885,944.092 oz 58.660 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 16,962,761.238OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,486,.611 .733 232.84tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,476,,149.445OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,600,667oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 174,18tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

SEPT 18 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE SEPT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	524,229.098 OZ Delawarew Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	5064,32 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	31 CONTRACT(S) (155,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	49 contracts (0.245million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	4942 Contracts (24.710 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 customer deposits:

we had one customer deposit:

i) Into Delaware 5064,32 oz

total customer deposits 5064.32 oz

total customer deposit 5064.32 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/305.964million or 44.13%

adjustment:3 dealer to customer

a) delaware 73,150,828 iz

b) CNT 9528,300 oz

c) Manfra 37,804,429 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 74.897MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305,964million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 80 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 28 CONTRACT(S).

WE HAD 54 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 26 CONTRACTS OR 130,000OZ

UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..

THERE MUST BE ENOUGH SILVER OVER HERE.

OCTOBER SAW A GAIN OF 8 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1412 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.

NOVEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 106

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 1110 CONTRACTS UP TO 123,007 CONTRACTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 31 for 155,000oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 50,464 poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4942 x 5,000 oz = 24.710 MILLION oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(86)and the number of notices served upon today 31 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month: 4942 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (86)x number of notices served upon today minus (31)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 24.985 MILLION OZ.

New total standing: 24..985 million oz.

There are 76.168million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOURINTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $9.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES

AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES

AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES

AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES

AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES

AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES

AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES

AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES

AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES

AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES

AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES

AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES

AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES

AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES

AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 872.23TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ

AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 27//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.959 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $0.23//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 45,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.880 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 461,079 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

end

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHE

Brien Lundin: $2,600 gold changes everything

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-09-16 19:12 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter / Golden Opportunities, Metairie, Louisiana
Monday, September 16, 2024

The turn has come.

For the last six months, I have explained why this was an historic new gold bull market, but also why it was different from any other before it.

That’s because it was being driven by central bank and Chinese buying, which had never happened before in combination, much less as the price was rising.

.Another key difference: Western investors were absent. That’s because they couldn’t project how long central banks and investors in China would continue buying.

I have also explained in recent months why this was going to change as the Fed’s long-awaited pivot approached. A shift from monetary tightening to easing was something Western investors could understand and project ahead for years.

This would be the catalyst for the next big leg in the metals.

And so it happened. As predicted, gold started taking off in early July as big money in hedge funds, family offices, and institutions began adding gold. …

* * *..

END

Stupid move!

Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Bucking repatriation trend, Argentina sends more gold to London

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-09-17 11:57 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Jan Nieuwenhuijs
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, September 17, 2024

In July the Central Bank of Argentina shipped another 3 tonnes of gold to the United Kingdom to swap for foreign exchange. A month prior the central bank also transported 3 tonnes to the U.K. The bank is now estimated to have 37 tonnes (60% of Argentina’s gold reserves) on swap in the London bullion market.

Argentine newspaper Clarín reported in 2017 that BCRA moved 11 tonnes of its monetary gold to London, according to their research, to be swapped for Japanese yen. “We are already doing this with all the gold we have in London, because by placing it in that financial center, we can expand its use,” the central bank told to Clarin at the time.

El Pais reported in July this year that the bank was again transporting gold abroad. After rumors were making rounds about how much gold was shipped out and to where, President Milei hinted that the gold was used overseas as collateral for a loan (this is how a swap typically works). Argentina appears to be in need of foreign currency to pay interest or to pay off debt.

A few weeks back I was able to confirm that the bank had sent $150 million worth of gold (3 tonnes) to the U.K. in June, based on cross-border trade statistics. Because officials had confessed that part of the Argentinian monetary gold was sent abroad, and for the first time ever the U.K. — home of the largest gold market — recorded to have imported 3 tonnes from Argentina that month, I was confident this batch could be assigned to the central bank. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/17/bucking-gold-repatriation-trend-argentina-sends-more-gold-to-london-003469

* * *

END

Good reason to suspend operations in Papua New Guinea. Violence kills 20!

Barrick Gold briefly suspends operations at Papua New Guinea mine after violence kills 20

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-09-17 22:42 Section: Daily Dispatches

From Reuters
Tuesday, September 17, 2024

SYDNEY — Barrick Gold has suspended operations at its Porgera gold mine in Papua New Guinea until Thursday after tribal violence in the region killed at least 20.

Papua New Guinea has granted police emergency powers, including the use of lethal force, to contain the violence in Porgera between illegal settlers squatting near the gold mine and local landowners, newspapers Post-Courier and The National reported late on Sunday. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/barrick-gold-suspends-operations-papua-new-guinea-mine-after-violence-kills-2024-09-17/

END

I am surprised that they are mining 39 tonnes of gold this year. They have lots of gold in the ground. The problem is their currency and government

Tuhue

Zimbabwe aims to maximize gold revenue amid surge in world demand

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-09-17 22:57 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Tinei Tuhwe
NewZimbabwe.com
Bromsgrove, Worcestershire, England
Tuesday, September 17, 2024

Zimbabwe’s mines ministry has launched the 2024 Second Gold Mobilisation exercise, aimed at ensuring compliance and maximizing revenue from the gold-mining sector.

Reports indicate that gold output is projected at 39 tons in 2024, up from around 33 tons in 2023, largely on the back of ongoing expansion projects and favorable prices.

old revenues are expected to surpass US$3 billion in 2024.

Average capacity utilization for the gold sector is expected to reach 95% in 2024, up from 84% in 2023. …

Speaking at the sendoff workshop in Harare, Mines Minister Winston Chitando said, “It is imperative to note that gold has long been a source of wealth and prosperity for Zimbabwe, and it holds immense potential to fuel our economic growth, create jobs, and improve the lives Zimbabweans.

“The global demand for gold is on the increase as the world is turning to gold as a safe haven.”

He highlighted global demand for gold, which has driven prices up from $1,900 in September 2023 to $2,500 currently.

“The key to realizing our 2024 gold deliverance target of 35 tonnes is plugging leakages to side markets,” he told the media. …

… For the remainder of the report:

Zimbabwe aims to maximize gold revenue amid global demand surge

* * *

Join GA

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/:live from the vault:

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COFFEE

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED D

//Hang Seng CLOSED

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 176,95 OR 0.46 %//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.04%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0832 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0871 Oil UP TO 70,24 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 72.758Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.0832

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0871

SHANGHAI CLOSED

HANG SENG CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed U 176,95 POINTS OR 0.46%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.31 EURO RISES TO 1.1126 UP 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.833 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 141.72…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.173 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.548SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2,983

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.152

3j Gold at $2579.80 /Silver at: 30.65 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 36//100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 91.86

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 141.72 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.833% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8435 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9385 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.673 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 3.984 UP 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.623 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.10…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.8505 UP 8 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.940 UP 5 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.759 UP 5 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Fed Day Arrives: Futures Are Flat But Fireworks Loom

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 08:19 AM

It’s finally Fed day, and futures are up up small with Tech in line and small-caps lagging having largely priced in a 50bps rate cut already (the risk clearly is to the downside if Powell goes 25bps). As of 8:15am, S&P futures are unchanged and less than 1% from all time highs, with the cash index rising for 7 consecutive days, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.2% with Mag7 mixed, and Semis weaker with NVDA -40bps; GOOG +70bps and MSFT +29bps.

While futures are flat now, they certainly won’t be after 2pm, as the uncertain ahead of today’s Fed decision is unprecedented while wages in a dovish direction are record high. As DB’s Jim Reid notes, “futures are pricing in a 69% chance of a 50bp cut, and given the uncertainty that’s still looming, we can expect a decent market reaction whatever the decision is tonight. You’d have to go back over 15 years to find such an uncertain situation this close to the decision. A lot of money will be made and lost today.“

Bond yields are mixed with the curve twisting steeper; the USD is lower to start the day, trading near 2024 lows. Commodities see weakness in Energy and Metals but strength in Ags. Today’s focus is on the Fed and the press conference.

In premarket trading, Alphabet gained after its Google unit won a court fight over competition with the European Union. Aperol maker Davide Campari NV’s shares fell 6.7% as its chief executive officer resigned after just five months. Here are some other premarket movers:

23andMe co-founder and Chief Executive Officer Anne Wojcicki told employees that she remains committed to taking the genetic testing company private following the resignation of its independent board members. Shares are down 9.7%.
Applied Therapeutics shares jump 40% after the company completed its late-cycle review meeting with the FDA on the ongoing New Drug Application review of govorestat.
GE HealthCare shares edge up 1.1% after BTIG upgraded the stock to buy from neutral saying the setup for the medical technology company has improved.
Intuitive Machines shares rise 54% after the company said it got a contract from NASA with a maximum potential value of $4.82 billion.
Super Micro Computer rose 0.8% as Needham & Co initiated with a recommendation of buy, saying the chip company has a first-mover advantage thanks to its “design of GPU-based compute systems and liquid cooled rack level solutions.”
United States Steel shares advance 4.0% after a US security panel granted Nippon Steel permission to refile its plans to purchase the American steel company for $14.1 billion.
VF Corporation shares rise 3.3% after the North Face owner was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight by analysts at Barclays, who expect to see an improvement in the company’s fundamentals over the next four to six quarters.
Victoria’s Secret shares gained 1.6% in premarket trading after the lingerie retailer’s stock was upgraded to equal-weight from underweight at Barclays, which said the “worst is behind the company.”

As everyone know, today is when the Fed will cut rates for the first time since March 2020, and all eyes are on the decision at 2pm ET with the FOMC set to deliver their first surprise since the start of the pandemic when the market was debating a 75bps or 100bps cut (in the end nobody remembers it, but what everyone does remember is that that easing cycle sparked the worst inflationary tsunami in generations). In recent cutting cycles, the Fed has surprised on the dovish side during crises (Covid & GFC) but has also under-delivered cuts on some occasions (Sep 2019).

Investors are looking for the Fed to ease policy sufficiently to respond to recent signs of weakness in the economy, achieving a soft landing without stirring concerns that conditions are worse than markets appreciate.

“If they’re doing 25 basis points this time, the likelihood that they can get to a hundred basis points by year end is pretty slim,” said Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St James Place Management. “So if you don’t get 50, then you’re going to get significant moves in market pricing.”

But while investors see greater scope for the larger adjustment, economist opinions are flipped, and largely anticipate the FOMC will reduce rates by only a quarter point to a range of 5% to 5.25%, though while 114 see a modest cut, 9 economists expect a half-point move.

Fresh quarterly projections in the form of the so-called “dot plot” released at the end of the central bank’s two-day meeting will offer further insight into the path ahead for borrowing costs and the economy. Chair Jerome Powell will also hold a press conference.

“I think they will go 25, but if they do go 50 — how they talk about this will be extremely important,” Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said on Bloomberg TV. “That is why the dot plot coming along with the statement today is critical for rates expectations.”

It’s not just the Fed, of course, and we also get the BOJ Friday, although there the market expects nothing from the central bank. Even so, the Japanese yen climbed as much as 0.8%, signaling expectations of a narrowing divergence in policy between the Fed and the Bank of Japan. In the UK, money markets see the Bank of England delivering modestly less easing after services inflation rose to 5.6% in August from 5.2% in July, while the headline figure held at just above the 2% target. The pound strengthened and yields on UK government bonds rose after Wednesday’s data.

European stocks are lower, with technology and heath care stocks falling the most. Auto and banking shares were the biggest outperformers. Stoxx 600 falls 0.4% to 515.48 with 384 members down, 192 up, and 24 little changed. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

Reckitt Benckiser advances as much as 3.3% to hit a six-month high after people familiar with the matter said the company started early discussions with some of the potential suitors for its homecare assets, which could fetch more than £6 billion in a deal
Ubisoft shares rise as much as 6.2% after BMO Capital Markets raises the video-game maker to outperform from market perform, saying the stock is now “too cheap to ignore” following a selloff triggered by concerns over the Star War Outlaws game
IHG gains as much as 1.8% after an upgrade to buy at Goldman Sachs, which named the company as its preferred pick among European hotel stocks. Shares in Whitbread edge lower as the broker cuts its rating to neutral
Campari shares slide as much as 6.7%, hitting the lowest level in more than four years, after the CEO of the Italian drinks maker resigned for “personal reasons”
Lonza shares fall as much as 2.9% after being downgraded to hold from buy at Intron Health, which says the Swiss company’s recently purchased biologics manufacturing facility in Vacaville, California, could “turn out to be a strategic misstep
Pandox shares dropsas much as 4.5%, the most in about six weeks, after the Swedish hotel property manager offered 10.8 million Class B shares at a discount via ABG Sundal Collier, DNB Markets, Svenska Handelsbanken, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken
Legal & General slides as much as 2.2% after agreeing to sell its UK housebuilding unit Cala Group to funds managed by Sixth Street Partners and Patron Capital for an enterprise value of £1.35 billion
EQT slip as much as 2.5% after being downgraded to sell from neutral at UBS, with the bank seeing both earnings and valuation risk from the Stockholm-based asset manager

Earlier, Asian stocks traded in a narrow range, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index steady. Toyota Motor was among the biggest boosts while TSMC dragged on the regional benchmark. Equities fell in India and Taiwan, while key gauges gained in Japan and mainland China. Markets in Hong Kong and South Korea were closed for holidays.

The rates market is currently pricing -40bps (60% probability of 50bps), while commentary the last few days has skewed towards 50bps too, including from former Fed official Dudley and Goldman trader Josh Shiffrin who notes broadly weaker data since Jackson Hole should lead the committee to a larger cut, even as the bank’s chief economist Jan Hatzius continues to call for 25bps amid Fed commentary just ahead of the blackout period. While they think a 50bp cut would be a sensible precaution against further labor market softening, the Fed leadership has communicated a sufficiently dovish reaction function for the bond market to price rate cuts between 25bp and 50bp for several meetings, which also lowers borrowing rates today. On the dots, Goldman expects the median dot to imply three 25bp cuts in 2024 followed by quarterly cuts to just above the longer-run rate thereafter.

In FX, the dollar weakened ahead of the Fed decision where market pricing suggests a near coin flip between a 25- and 50-bp interest-rate cut. The Japanese yen and New Zealand dollar vie for top spot among G-10 peers, each rising 0.6%.

In rates, treasury futures are under pressure in the early US session, following wider losses across core European rates in what’s been a fairly muted session ahead of the fraught Fed announcement at 2pm New York time. Treasury yields are cheaper by 1.5bp-2bp across a marginally steeper curve — spreads remain within 1bp of Tuesday’s close. The 10-year at 3.66% is near session high, higher by around 1.5bp on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector cheaper by an additional 1.2bp and 3bp. Ahead of the Fed decision, swaps market prices in around 39bp of rate-cut premium and a combined 115bp over this year’s three remaining meetings. Further out, a combined 250bp of cuts are priced in by the end of next year. There’s been a surge in open interest in October fed funds futures over the past three sessions, skewed toward long positions targeting a 50-basis-pointc cut this week. In Europe, gilts fell, lagging German counterparts, as traders pare Bank of England rate cut bets after UK CPI rose in line with expectations.

In commodities, oil turned lower after a two-day gain as signs of higher US stockpiles countered concerns that Middle East tensions may escalate further. WTI drops more than 1.5% to $70.10 a barrel, unwinding Tuesday’s gain.

Spot gold is steady near $2,570/oz. We urge readers to use our partners JMBullion for all their gold-buying needs.

Looking the day ahead now, the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. The US economic data calendar also includes August housing starts/building permits (8:30am) and July TIC flows (4pm). We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Holzmann, Vujcic and Nagel.

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,639.50
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 515.30
MXAP little changed at 183.10
MXAPJ down 0.2% to 572.52
Nikkei up 0.5% to 36,380.17
Topix up 0.4% to 2,565.37
Hang Seng Index up 1.4% to 17,660.02
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 2,717.28
Sensex down 0.2% to 82,876.71
Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,142.07
Kospi up 0.1% to 2,575.41
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.17%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.1131
Brent Futures down 0.9% to $73.05/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,569.66
US Dollar Index little changed at 100.80

Top Overnight News

Japan posts soft economic data, w/exports coming in +5.6% Y/Y in Aug (down from +10.2% in Jul and below the consensus forecast of +10.6%), with exports to the US falling for the first time in nearly three years, while machine orders dipped 0.1% M/M in Jul (vs. the Street +0.5%). RTRS
UK inflation for Aug was inline w/the consensus, including headline CPI (+2.2%, flat vs. Jul), core CPI (3.6%, up 30bp vs. Jul), and services CPI (5.6%, up 40bp vs. Jul). RTRS
Citadel Securities shelved plans to join the ranks of bond dealers that trade directly with the Fed. BBG
Google won a legal fight with the EU over a €1.5 billion fine for preventing rivals from placing online ads. BBG
They’ll go 50 [today]. The communication has been confusing but if you follow the path of the data, and the language of Jay Powell at Jackson Hole, it leads me to 50. Powell was very dovish at JH. Didn’t want further weakening in labor market, and data since has been broadly weak. If you follow that line, he will push for a bigger cut given how far they are from neutral. GS GBM (Josh Schiffrin)
US crude inventories rose by almost 2 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would be the biggest surge in almost three months if confirmed by the EIA. Still, supplies at Cushing fell closer to the level that’s seen as its operational minimum. BBG
Nippon Steel was allowed to refile its plan to buy US Steel, people familiar said, probably pushing a decision on the takeover past November. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have said they oppose the deal. BBG
China’s Foreign Ministry says it is taking countermeasures against some US firms regarding their weapons sales to Taiwan; measures incl. freezing property within China owned by the firms: RTRS
Retailers in the US plan to hire fewer seasonal workers this year (~520K people vs. ~564K in 2023). RTRS
Blackrock will launch a >$30B AI investment fund w/MSFT (Microsoft) to build data centers and energy projects related to the technology. FT
Former Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said he sees a normal 25bps rate cut by the Fed but wouldn’t be surprised by 50bps.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with participants lacking conviction heading into the crucial Fed policy decision. ASX 200 was contained amid light macro newsflow and a quiet overnight calendar heading into this week’s central bank updates. Nikkei 225 initially rallied on currency weakness but then reversed course and briefly wiped out its gains after mixed data and as the JPY nursed some of its losses. Some BoJ policymakers are reportedly worried that they may not be able to increase interest rates much further as a stronger JPY would result in cheaper imports, slow inflation and impact corporate earnings, via WSJ citing sources. Shanghai Comp initially struggled for direction on return from the holiday closures before retreating below the 2,700 level. Hong Kong participants were absent from the market, while the weak activity data from over the weekend had little impact and the PBoC delayed its MLF operations once again.

Top Asian news

PBoC said it will conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility loan rollover on September 25th.
US is urging Vietnam to avoid Chinese cable-laying firm HMN Technologies and other Chinese companies in its plans to build new undersea cables, while Washington shared intelligence with Hanoi about possible cable sabotage.
China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism says there was a 6.3% increase in domestic trips during this year’s mid autumn festival holiday since 2019, reaching 107mln trips.
Japan’s Government says the economy is in moderate recovery; they keep economic assessment unchanged in September from August.
Chinese FX regulator says global financial environment expected to improve as developed economies start rate cutting cycle. China’s FX market becomes more resilient, it will continue to play a positive role in stabilising market expectations and trading. Foreign institutes continued to increase China bond holdings in August. Foreign willingness to allocate Yuan assets remains stable.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) began the session mixed/modestly lower, and slowly dipped lower as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a strong negative tilt; Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, propped up by gains in Reckitt, amid asset-sale related reports. Healthcare is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by losses in Novo Nordisk (-2.1%) after it was reported that Ozempic is “very likely” to be part of the next US price cut negotiations. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.1%) are indicative of a very modestly firmer open, with traders mindful of today’s FOMC Policy Announcement, where the Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut in 4 years. Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) wins court challenge against EUR 1.49bln EU antitrust fine

Top European news

Irish Central Bank lowered its 2024 HICP forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% and 2025 HICP forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%, while it cut its 2024 GDP forecast to -0.9% from 1.9% and raised 2025 GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.4%. Furthermore, it stated that economic growth risks are tilted to the downside and risks to the inflation outlook are broadly balanced.
The Times’ BoE Shadow MPC said the Bank should leave rates unchanged whilst increasing the rate at which it reduces its balance sheet from GBP 100bln per year to GBP 120bln.
ECB’s Villeroy says the ECB is likely to continue cutting rates. Regarding France: the plan to cut the deficit would need a balance of around 75% from savings and 25% from higher taxes; for some big firms, could envisage extra effort being made in relation to their taxes.
Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says due to significant terminal congestions in the Mediterranean and Asia ports, are experiencing substantial delays in vessel schedules. These congestions have resulted in extended waiting times at various ports, impacting ability to maintain a regular schedules.
UK ONS says house prices increased by 2.2% to GBP 290,000 in 12 months to July 2024.
Spain’s Economy Ministry revises down 2023 debt-to-GDP ratio by three percentage points, to 105%

USD is softer with all focus today on the FOMC rate decision. Heading into the release, markets assign a circa 60% chance of a 50bps reduction and a 40% chance of a 25bps move. DXY is currently within yesterday’s 100.56-101.02 range. The YTD low sits at 100.51.
EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD with fresh EZ drivers lacking as policymakers continue to downplay the chances of a rate cut next month; currently trading around 1.1130.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD and EUR in the wake of the latest UK inflation data which printed in-line on a headline Y/Y basis but slightly firmer for core and services. Cable is now back on a 1.32 handle but below yesterday’s 1.3230 peak.
JPY is firmer vs. the USD on a day which will contrast the respective policy paths of the Fed and BoJ. An extension of the downside could see the pair revisit the sub-140 levels.
AUD/USD has extended its rally seen since the start of the week which has taken it from a 0.6697 base to a 0.6779 peak. NZD/USD is also on the rise with the pair gaining a firmer footing on a 0.62 handle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0870 vs exp. 7.0828 (prev. 7.1030).
BoC Deputy Governor Rogers said that the Bank wishes to see more progress on core inflation measures, adding that “there is still work to do”, according to Bloomberg.

Fixed Income

USTs are lower and towards the bottom end of today’s 115-06+ to 115-13+ parameters. All eyes are on the Fed. The odds of a 50bps cut are currently just above the 60% mark with just under a 40% chance of a 25bps move.
Gilts are underperforming. Despite an in-line headline print and mitigating factors from base effects and the prior survey period, slightly hotter-than-expected core and services Y/Y UK inflation points have sparked a modest hawkish reaction in Gilts.
Bunds are pressured, in-fitting with peers. Specifics are somewhat light for EGBs with markets generally awaiting the FOMC. Bunds at the low-end of a 134.49-134.86 band, similarly to Gilts there is now limited support until the 134.00 mark. EZ HICP (Final) passed without reaction.
German Debt Agency says issue of green federal security scheduled for November 5th has been cancelled.
UK sells GBP 2.75bln 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 3.55x (prev. 3.52x), average yield 3.731% (prev. 4.072%) and tail 0.9bps (prev. 0.7bps).
Germany sells EUR 0.814bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 1.80% 2053 Bund and EUR 0.82bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.50% 2054 Bund.

Commodities

Softer trade across the crude complex after the weekly Private Inventory data showed a surprise build in headline crude and larger-than-expected builds in other components of the release, which helped to pare some of the geopolitcal induced headlines seen in the prior session. The complex then took another leg lower amid Reuters reports which suggested Russia could hold off oil export cuts in October due to domestic refineries maintenance. Brent’Nov trades towards the bottom end of today’s USD 72.42-73.77/bbl intraday parameter.
Flat/slightly firmer trade in precious metals as traders bide time ahead of the FOMC announcement whereby the main question around the Fed’s decision is the magnitude of the rate cut to kick off its easing cycle, with a 25 or 50 basis point cut under consideration.
Base metals are on a firmer footing following early weakness as the DXY eased off best levels and after sentiment around Chinese markets recovered on their first day back from the long weekend, with Mainland China offered the first chance to react to its sub-par activity data from the weekend.
US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +2.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillate +2.3mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +2.3mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
PBF’s 166k BPD Torrance California refinery reports unplanned flaring due to malfunction.
Russia’s Kremlin, on Norway and elevated levels of caesium-137, says there is no alerts from Russian services about the high levels of such isotopes in the atmosphere.
Russia could hold off oil export cuts in October due to domestic refineries maintenance, according to traders cited by Reuters; sources expect a small rise of exports by around several hundred thousands. Primorsk and Ust-Luga for September has been revised higher by 0.2mln tons to 6.2mln tons, sources state.

Geopolitics: Middle East

At least 2,750 were injured and 9 died in the pager detonation incident across Lebanon, while the Lebanese Information Minister said the government condemned the pagers detonation as ‘”Israeli aggression”. Furthermore, Hezbollah promised to retaliate after blaming Israel for detonating pagers on Tuesday and Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah was reportedly not harmed in the pager blasts, according to a Senior Hezbollah source cited by Reuters.
Israeli press cited sources that warned Hezbollah will pay a heavy price if it chooses escalation, according to Al Jazeera. It was also reported that senior Israeli military officials are preparing for a third Hezbollah War which is expected to begin almost immediately, according to Israel’s Channel 14. Furthermore, the security and military weight will shift from the Gaza Strip to the northern front, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 14.
US officials cited by NYT stated that Hezbollah’s communication devices are Taiwanese and were hacked before they reached Lebanon, while they added that Israel hid explosives inside a batch of Taiwanese pagers imported into Lebanon.
Taiwan’s Gold Apollo founder said the pagers in the Lebanon explosions were not made by the company and had their brand but production had been outsourced and were made by a company in Europe. Gold Apollo later stated that a company called BAC made the pagers used in the Lebanon blasts.
“IDF Radio: Raising the alert level in air defense systems and air forces in anticipation of an attack by Hezbollah”, according to Al Jazeera.
“Israeli media: The commander of the Northern Command presented the Chief of Staff and the political level with a series of plans to launch a ground operation in Lebanon”, according to Cairo News.

Geopolitics: Other

Russia’s Tver regional governor ordered a partial evacuation of Toropets town after a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire.
North Korea fired suspected ballistic missiles which fell shortly after and appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailed through waters to the northeast of Taiwan on Wednesday and then sailed to the southeast of Japan’s Yonaguni island, while NHK reported that a Chinese navy aircraft carrier temporarily entered Japan’s contiguous waters in a first such entry.

US Event Calendar

07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 1.4%
08:30: Aug. Housing Starts, est. 1.32m, prior 1.24m
- Aug. Housing Starts MoM, est. 6.5%, prior -6.8%
- Aug. Building Permits, est. 1.41m, prior 1.4m, revised 1.4m
- Aug. Building Permits MoM, est. 1.0%, prior -4.0%, revised -3.3%
14:00: Sept. FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound, est. 5.00%, prior 5.25%; Upper Bound, est. 5.25%, prior 5.50%
16:00: July Net Foreign Security Purchases, prior $96.1b
16:00: July Total Net TIC Flows, prior $107.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Do you think the Fed will cut 25bps or 50bps today? If you feel like taking part in our flash poll click on the hyperlink underneath these two numbers above to provide a one click response. It’ll be great if you can take a second to take part. It’ll be interesting to see how far this is away from current market pricing. I’ll publish the answers in a CoTD today later.

As it stands right now, futures are pricing in a 69% chance of a 50bp cut, and given the uncertainty that’s still looming, we can expect a decent market reaction whatever the decision is tonight. You’d have to go back over 15 years to find such an uncertain situation this close to the decision. A lot of money will be made and lost today.

I’ve waivered both ways over the last few days and I’m surprised the Fed has left pricing so uncertain at this stage. However in an era of heavy forward guidance it’s refreshing to see a little less certainty. If that was more widespread I think it would be more rather than less helpful. If you think you know exactly what the central bank will do it is likely to promote more over exuberance in markets which in turn requires a bigger opposite reaction later. I’m sure they’ll be those taking the opposite view though.
In terms of what our US economists expect, their view is the Fed will go for a 25bp cut today but Matt Luzzetti agrees its an incredibly balanced call. He decided against changing his view to 50bps as he believes that even though there’s a compelling risk management case for a larger cut, Fed communications before the blackout period and the balance of data don’t clearly argue for a larger cut. If the Fed do cut by 25bps, then they expect the median dot to show two further 25bps cuts this year, and then a string of reductions in 2025 that take the fed funds rate much closer to neutral by end-2025. Either way, they think Fed Chair Powell will face a communications challenge, as a 25bp cut would raise questions about the Fed falling behind the curve, whereas a 50bp cut would mean Powell needs to avoid sending negative signals about the economy. Click here for their full preview.

If the Fed do go for the larger 50bp cut today, it wouldn’t be the first time that they’ve begun a cycle of rate cuts with a larger move. In both 2001 and 2007 they opened with a 50bp cut, although in those two cases a recession followed within 3-4 months, so that’s hardly inspiring from the Fed’s perspective. The most recent example of a 50bp rate cut came in March 2020, again as the economy was deteriorating sharply given the pandemic, which was then followed up by a 100bp cut just 12 days later. So this is partly why there’s the theory that a dovish decision could panic the markets today, with the argument saying that if the Fed do go for a 50bp cut, that implies they’re pretty worried about where the economy stands right now.

The market dial between 25bp and 50bp continued to waver over the last 24 hours. It had marginally shifted it back towards 25bps earlier yesterday, as neither the retail sales nor the industrial production data suggested the economy was heading into a sharper downturn. In fact, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate was updated on the back of those, and it now expects Q3 growth to come in at an annualised +3.0%, up from +2.5% before. So well away from recession territory as it stands. In terms of the specifics, the headline retail sales print was stronger than expected at +0.1% (vs. -0.2% expected), and the previous month was revised up a tenth to +1.1% as well. Then on industrial production, the headline figure was up +0.8% in August (vs. +0.2% expected), and that outperformance more than outweighed the three-tenths downward revision to the previous month. That led futures to initially dial back the chance of a 50bp cut, with the probability falling from 71% at Monday’s close down to as low as 62% intra-day. However, the pattern of a drift towards 50bp pricing in the absence of newsflow then re-emerged, with the probability rising to 66% by the close and further up to 69% as we type this morning.

This backdrop led to an up-and-down session for US equities. The resilient data saw the S&P 500 reach an all-time intra-day high of 5670 (+0.67% at the peak) early on but it later gave up those gains to close little changed on the day (+0.03%). This did still represent a 7th consecutive advance, and the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 (+0.14%) advanced to a new all-time high. As we pointed out in yesterday’s Chart of the Day (link here), if you look at the Fed rate cut cycles since 1957, this one has seen the strongest advance for the S&P 500 in the year leading up to the cuts. So it’s unusual to see monetary policy eased against the backdrop of such buoyant equity gains.

There was some divergence across sectors yesterday, with cyclical stocks including energy (+1.41%) and consumer discretionary (+0.62%) leading the way within the S&P 500. By contrast, defensive sectors declined, including healthcare (-1.01%) and consumer staples (-0.93%). The outperformance of small-caps was another continued theme of recent days, as the Russell 2000 (+0.74%) outpaced the S&P 500 for a 4th consecutive session. Meanwhile in Europe, equity markets closed before the US gave up its gains, with the STOXX 600 (+0.40%), the DAX (+0.50%) and the FTSE 100 (+0.38%) all moving higher.

In the meantime, sovereign bond yields moved off their recent lows, as the strong US data saw investors slightly dial back the likelihood of rapid rate cuts. By the close, that meant the 2yr yield was up +5.4bps to 3.61%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +2.8bps to 3.65%. The uptick in rates was echoed in Europe, where yields on 10yr bunds (+2.1bps), OATs (+2.7bps) and BTPs (+2.0bps) each moved a bit higher as well.

The rise in US rates was led by breakevens, which ticked up for the 5th session in a row as oil prices continued to recover from their post-2021 low seen last week. Brent crude was up +1.31% to $73.70/bbl, in part amid renewed concerns over Middle East escalation after a wave of pager explosions in Lebanon that appeared to target Hezbollah, which in turn blamed Israel for the attack.

In Asia markets are pretty flat with most just above or below the flat line including China where markets have resumed trading after the early week holiday. Hong Kong and South Korea are still closed for holidays.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s export growth slowed sharply in August, rising +5.6% y/y (v/s +10.6% expected), up for a ninth straight month and against a downwardly revised +10.2% y/y increase the previous month. Meanwhile, the value of imports grew +2.3% y/y in August, versus a +13.4% increase expected by Bloomberg. As a result, the trade deficit stood at -695.3 billion yen (v/s -628.7 billion yen last month) compared with the forecast of a deficit of -1.43 trillion yen. A reminder that the BoJ are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold at its two-day meeting ending Friday.

Looking at yesterday’s other data, the German ZEW survey came in noticeable lower than expected, with the expectations component down to an 11-month low of 3.6 (vs. 17.0 expected). The current situation also fell back to -84.5 (vs. -80.0 expected), which is the lowest reading since May 2020. Meanwhile in Canada, inflation fell a bit more than expected in August, with CPI coming down to +2.0% (vs. +2.1% expected).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. Data releases include the UK CPI for August, along with US housing starts and building permits for August. We’ll also hear from the ECB’s Holzmann, Vujcic and Nagel.

2B) European report

USD softer with fixed pressured pre-FOMC, US futures slightly firmer – Newsquawk US Market Open

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 06:05 AM

European bourses are slightly lower whilst US futures see very modest gains ahead of the FOMC announcement
Dollar is slightly softer, Kiwi outperforms, with JPY also stronger
Bonds are at lows, Gilts underperform following the region’s UK inflation report which saw Services & Core Y/Y print above expectations
Crude resides near lows and took another leg lower amid reports that Russia could hold off oil export cuts, XAU/base metals gain
Looking ahead, US Building Permits, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes, Earnings from General Mills.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) began the session mixed/modestly lower, and slowly dipped lower as the morning progressed.
European sectors hold a strong negative tilt; Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, propped up by gains in Reckitt, amid asset-sale related reports. Healthcare is found at the foot of the pile, hampered by losses in Novo Nordisk (-2.1%) after it was reported that Ozempic is “very likely” to be part of the next US price cut negotiations.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.1%, RTY +0.1%) are indicative of a very modestly firmer open, with traders mindful of today’s FOMC Policy Announcement, where the Fed is expected to deliver its first rate cut in 4 years.
Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL) wins court challenge against EUR 1.49bln EU antitrust fine
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
Click for the additional news
Click for a detailed summary

FX

USD is softer with all focus today on the FOMC rate decision. Heading into the release, markets assign a circa 60% chance of a 50bps reduction and a 40% chance of a 25bps move. DXY is currently within yesterday’s 100.56-101.02 range. The YTD low sits at 100.51.
EUR is a touch firmer vs. the USD with fresh EZ drivers lacking as policymakers continue to downplay the chances of a rate cut next month; currently trading around 1.1130.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD and EUR in the wake of the latest UK inflation data which printed in-line on a headline Y/Y basis but slightly firmer for core and services. Cable is now back on a 1.32 handle but below yesterday’s 1.3230 peak.
JPY is firmer vs. the USD on a day which will contrast the respective policy paths of the Fed and BoJ. An extension of the downside could see the pair revisit the sub-140 levels.
AUD/USD has extended its rally seen since the start of the week which has taken it from a 0.6697 base to a 0.6779 peak. NZD/USD is also on the rise with the pair gaining a firmer footing on a 0.62 handle.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0870 vs exp. 7.0828 (prev. 7.1030).
BoC Deputy Governor Rogers said that the Bank wishes to see more progress on core inflation measures, adding that “there is still work to do”, according to Bloomberg.
Click for a detailed summary
Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

USTs are lower and towards the bottom end of today’s 115-06+ to 115-13+ parameters. All eyes are on the Fed. The odds of a 50bps cut are currently just above the 60% mark with just under a 40% chance of a 25bps move.
Gilts are underperforming. Despite an in-line headline print and mitigating factors from base effects and the prior survey period, slightly hotter-than-expected core and services Y/Y UK inflation points have sparked a modest hawkish reaction in Gilts.
Bunds are pressured, in-fitting with peers. Specifics are somewhat light for EGBs with markets generally awaiting the FOMC. Bunds at the low-end of a 134.49-134.86 band, similarly to Gilts there is now limited support until the 134.00 mark. EZ HICP (Final) passed without reaction.
German Debt Agency says issue of green federal security scheduled for November 5th has been cancelled.
UK sells GBP 2.75bln 0.875% 2033 Green Gilt: b/c 3.55x (prev. 3.52x), average yield 3.731% (prev. 4.072%) and tail 0.9bps (prev. 0.7bps).
Germany sells EUR 0.814bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 1.80% 2053 Bund and EUR 0.82bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.50% 2054 Bund.
Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

Softer trade across the crude complex after the weekly Private Inventory data showed a surprise build in headline crude and larger-than-expected builds in other components of the release, which helped to pare some of the geopolitcal induced headlines seen in the prior session. The complex then took another leg lower amid Reuters reports which suggested Russia could hold off oil export cuts in October due to domestic refineries maintenance. Brent’Nov trades towards the bottom end of today’s USD 72.42-73.77/bbl intraday parameter.
Flat/slightly firmer trade in precious metals as traders bide time ahead of the FOMC announcement whereby the main question around the Fed’s decision is the magnitude of the rate cut to kick off its easing cycle, with a 25 or 50 basis point cut under consideration.
Base metals are on a firmer footing following early weakness as the DXY eased off best levels and after sentiment around Chinese markets recovered on their first day back from the long weekend, with Mainland China offered the first chance to react to its sub-par activity data from the weekend.
US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +2.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillate +2.3mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +2.3mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
PBF’s 166k BPD Torrance California refinery reports unplanned flaring due to malfunction.
Russia’s Kremlin, on Norway and elevated levels of caesium-137, says there is no alerts from Russian services about the high levels of such isotopes in the atmosphere.
Russia could hold off oil export cuts in October due to domestic refineries maintenance, according to traders cited by Reuters; sources expect a small rise of exports by around several hundred thousands. Primorsk and Ust-Luga for September has been revised higher by 0.2mln tons to 6.2mln tons, sources state.
Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

UK CPI YY (Aug) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%); Core YY 3.6% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.3%); Services YY 5.60% vs. Exp. 5.50% (Prev. 5.20%)
UK CPI MM (Aug) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.2%); Core MM 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.1%); Services MM 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.50% (Prev. 0.50%)
EU HICP Final YY (Aug) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.2%)
South African Core Inflation YY (Aug) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.3%); CPI YY (Aug) 4.4% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.6%); CPI MM (Aug) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.4%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

Irish Central Bank lowered its 2024 HICP forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% and 2025 HICP forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%, while it cut its 2024 GDP forecast to -0.9% from 1.9% and raised 2025 GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.4%. Furthermore, it stated that economic growth risks are tilted to the downside and risks to the inflation outlook are broadly balanced.
The Times’ BoE Shadow MPC said the Bank should leave rates unchanged whilst increasing the rate at which it reduces its balance sheet from GBP 100bln per year to GBP 120bln.
ECB’s Villeroy says the ECB is likely to continue cutting rates. Regarding France: the plan to cut the deficit would need a balance of around 75% from savings and 25% from higher taxes; for some big firms, could envisage extra effort being made in relation to their taxes.
Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says due to significant terminal congestions in the Mediterranean and Asia ports, are experiencing substantial delays in vessel schedules. These congestions have resulted in extended waiting times at various ports, impacting ability to maintain a regular schedules.
UK ONS says house prices increased by 2.2% to GBP 290,000 in 12 months to July 2024.
Spain’s Economy Ministry revises down 2023 debt-to-GDP ratio by three percentage points, to 105%

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Former Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said he sees a normal 25bps rate cut by the Fed but wouldn’t be surprised by 50bps.
China’s Foreign Ministry says it is taking countermeasures against some US firms regarding their weapons sales to Taiwan; measures incl. freezing property within China owned by the firms.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

At least 2,750 were injured and 9 died in the pager detonation incident across Lebanon, while the Lebanese Information Minister said the government condemned the pagers detonation as ‘”Israeli aggression”. Furthermore, Hezbollah promised to retaliate after blaming Israel for detonating pagers on Tuesday and Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah was reportedly not harmed in the pager blasts, according to a Senior Hezbollah source cited by Reuters.
Israeli press cited sources that warned Hezbollah will pay a heavy price if it chooses escalation, according to Al Jazeera. It was also reported that senior Israeli military officials are preparing for a third Hezbollah War which is expected to begin almost immediately, according to Israel’s Channel 14. Furthermore, the security and military weight will shift from the Gaza Strip to the northern front, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 14.
US officials cited by NYT stated that Hezbollah’s communication devices are Taiwanese and were hacked before they reached Lebanon, while they added that Israel hid explosives inside a batch of Taiwanese pagers imported into Lebanon.
Taiwan’s Gold Apollo founder said the pagers in the Lebanon explosions were not made by the company and had their brand but production had been outsourced and were made by a company in Europe. Gold Apollo later stated that a company called BAC made the pagers used in the Lebanon blasts.
“IDF Radio: Raising the alert level in air defense systems and air forces in anticipation of an attack by Hezbollah”, according to Al Jazeera.
“Israeli media: The commander of the Northern Command presented the Chief of Staff and the political level with a series of plans to launch a ground operation in Lebanon”, according to Cairo News.

OTHER

Russia’s Tver regional governor ordered a partial evacuation of Toropets town after a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire.
North Korea fired suspected ballistic missiles which fell shortly after and appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailed through waters to the northeast of Taiwan on Wednesday and then sailed to the southeast of Japan’s Yonaguni island, while NHK reported that a Chinese navy aircraft carrier temporarily entered Japan’s contiguous waters in a first such entry.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin is incrementally softer and trades just below USD 60k.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with participants lacking conviction heading into the crucial Fed policy decision.
ASX 200 was contained amid light macro newsflow and a quiet overnight calendar heading into this week’s central bank updates.
Nikkei 225 initially rallied on currency weakness but then reversed course and briefly wiped out its gains after mixed data and as the JPY nursed some of its losses.
Some BoJ policymakers are reportedly worried that they may not be able to increase interest rates much further as a stronger JPY would result in cheaper imports, slow inflation and impact corporate earnings, via WSJ citing sources.
Shanghai Comp initially struggled for direction on return from the holiday closures before retreating below the 2,700 level. Hong Kong participants were absent from the market, while the weak activity data from over the weekend had little impact and the PBoC delayed its MLF operations once again.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC said it will conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility loan rollover on September 25th.
US is urging Vietnam to avoid Chinese cable-laying firm HMN Technologies and other Chinese companies in its plans to build new undersea cables, while Washington shared intelligence with Hanoi about possible cable sabotage.
China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism says there was a 6.3% increase in domestic trips during this year’s mid autumn festival holiday since 2019, reaching 107mln trips.
Japan’s Government says the economy is in moderate recovery; they keep economic assessment unchanged in September from August.
Chinese FX regulator says global financial environment expected to improve as developed economies start rate cutting cycle. China’s FX market becomes more resilient, it will continue to play a positive role in stabilising market expectations and trading. Foreign institutes continued to increase China bond holdings in August. Foreign willingness to allocate Yuan assets remains stable.

DATA RECAP

Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jul) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.1%); YY 8.7% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. -1.7%)
Japanese Trade Balance Total (JPY)(Aug) -695.3B vs. Exp. -1380.0B (Prev. -621.8B, Rev. -628.7B)
Japanese Exports YY (Aug) 5.6% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 10.3%, Rev. 10.2%); Imports 2.3% vs. Exp. 13.4% (Prev. 16.6%)

2C ASIAN REPORT.

APAC stocks steady, European equity futures softer & JPY outperforms pre-Fed – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 01:27 AM

APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with participants lacking conviction heading into the crucial Fed policy decision.
European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Tuesday.
DXY is lingering below the 101 mark, JPY is the clear outperformer across the majors with FX otherwise contained.
Market pricing assigns a 65% chance of a 50bps Fed cut and a 35% possibility of a 25bps move, according to Refinitiv.
Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), US Building Permits, FOMC Policy Announcement & Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement, BoC Minutes, Supply from UK & Germany

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks were indecisive and the major indices mostly finished flat on the eve of the FOMC although the small-cap Russell 2000 outperformed and the dollar strengthened as participants digested a slew of data releases including better-than-expected US Retail Sales and Industrial Production, while all attention now turns to the pivotal Fed meeting.
SPX +0.03% at 5,635, NDX +0.05% at 19,432, DJIA -0.04% at 41,606, RUT +0.74% at 2,205.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

Former Atlanta Fed President Lockhart said he sees a normal 25bps rate cut by the Fed but wouldn’t be surprised by 50bps.
Atlanta Fed GDPnow (Q3) 3.0% (prev. 2.5%)

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks were mostly rangebound with participants lacking conviction heading into the crucial Fed policy decision.
ASX 200 was contained amid light macro newsflow and a quiet overnight calendar heading into this week’s central bank updates.
Nikkei 225 initially rallied on currency weakness but then reversed course and briefly wiped out its gains after mixed data and as the JPY nursed some of its losses.
Some BoJ policymakers are reportedly worried that they may not be able to increase interest rates much further as a stronger JPY would result in cheaper imports, slow inflation and impact corporate earnings, via WSJ citing sources.
Shanghai Comp initially struggled for direction on return from the holiday closures before retreating below the 2,700 level. Hong Kong participants were absent from the market, while the weak activity data from over the weekend had little impact and the PBoC delayed its MLF operations once again.
US equity futures (ES U/C) treaded water with the Fed’s first expected rate cut in four years on the horizon and with views split on the magnitude of the move.
European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.2% after the cash market closed higher by 0.7% on Tuesday.

FX

DXY took a breather after gaining yesterday on the back of stronger-than-expected Industrial Production and Retail Sales data, while the focus remains on the highly anticipated looming Fed rate cut, accompanying statement, SEPs and Powell’s press conference.
EUR/USD was rangebound amid light overnight catalysts and after recent ECB commentary provided very little to shift the dial.
GBP/USD traded little changed after sliding beneath the 1.3200 handle with participants also awaiting UK inflation data.
USD/JPY faded some of the advances from its recent outperformance and reverted to a sub-142.00 status.
Antipodeans eked marginal gains amid a firmer CNY-reference rate setting but with upside capped by the cautious mood and soft New Zealand current account data.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0870 vs exp. 7.0828 (prev. 7.1030).
BoC Deputy Governor Rogers said that the Bank wishes to see more progress on core inflation measures, adding that “there is still work to do”, according to Bloomberg.

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures remained contained after retreating yesterday on better-than-expected US data, while all focus turns to the FOMC.
Bund futures lacked demand after recently sliding back beneath the 135.00 level and ahead of today’s 30yr Bund supply.
10yr JGB futures gradually edged after several data releases including mixed Machinery Orders and mostly disappointing trade data.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures mildly pulled back after being driven higher yesterday by geopolitical tensions following the pager explosions targeting Hezbollah, while the latest private sector inventory data showed a surprise build in headline crude and larger-than-expected builds in other components of the release.
US Private Energy Inventories (bbls): Crude +2.0mln (exp. -0.5mln), Distillate +2.3mln (exp. +0.6mln), Gasoline +2.3mln (exp. +0.2mln), Cushing -1.4mln.
US is to seek 6mln bbls of oil for emergency reserve, taking advantage of relatively low prices, according to Reuters sources.
BSEE reported that 6% of oil production and 10% of natural gas production is shut in the US Gulf of Mexico post-Francine.
Venezuela’s largest oil refinery has reportedly been paralyzed since September 12th due to a power failure.
Spot gold traded rangebound with participants unwilling to commit ahead of the pivotal Fed policy announcement.
Copper futures were subdued and failed to benefit from a return to the market of its largest buyer amid cautiousness ahead of the Fed decision.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin marginally gained following a rebound from support around the USD 60,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

PBoC said it will conduct a Medium-term Lending Facility loan rollover on September 25th.
China asked Germany to push the EU to reach a solution over EV tariff, during a meeting of China’s Commerce Minister with Germany’s Economic Affairs Minister. China’s Commerce Minister also warned the imposition of tariffs will seriously interfere with trade and investment cooperation, as well as cause damage to the interests of both sides.
US is urging Vietnam to avoid Chinese cable-laying firm HMN Technologies and other Chinese companies in its plans to build new undersea cables, while Washington shared intelligence with Hanoi about possible cable sabotage

DATA RECAP

Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Jul) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 2.1%)
Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Jul) 8.7% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. -1.7%)
Japanese Trade Balance Total (JPY)(Aug) -695.3B vs. Exp. -1380.0B (Prev. -621.8B, Rev. -628.7B)
Japanese Exports YY (Aug) 5.6% vs. Exp. 10.0% (Prev. 10.3%, Rev. 10.2%)
Japanese Imports YY (Aug) 2.3% vs. Exp. 13.4% (Prev. 16.6%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

At least 2,750 were injured and 9 died in the pager detonation incident across Lebanon, while the Lebanese Information Minister said the government condemned the pagers detonation as ‘”Israeli aggression”. Furthermore, Hezbollah promised to retaliate after blaming Israel for detonating pagers on Tuesday and Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah was reportedly not harmed in the pager blasts, according to a Senior Hezbollah source cited by Reuters.
Israel didn’t inform the Biden administration ahead of its intelligence operation that included exploding thousands of Hezbollah members’ pager devices, according to Axios citing sources. Israeli officials said they are aware that a major escalation on the northern border is possible after the attack and said Israel Defense Forces are on high alert for a possible response by Hezbollah, while the operation was approved earlier this week during security meetings with Israeli PM Netanyahu and senior members of his cabinet and the heads of the security services.
Israel’s Mossad reportedly put a quantity of high-explosive PETN on the battery of devices and it was detonated by raising the temperature of the battery, according to Sky News Arabia citing special sources.
Israeli press cited sources that warned Hezbollah will pay a heavy price if it chooses escalation, according to Al Jazeera. It was also reported that senior Israeli military officials are preparing for a third Hezbollah War which is expected to begin almost immediately, according to Israel’s Channel 14. Furthermore, the security and military weight will shift from the Gaza Strip to the northern front, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 14.
Hamas said blasts are an escalation that will only lead Israel to “failure and defeat”.
US officials cited by NYT stated that Hezbollah’s communication devices are Taiwanese and were hacked before they reached Lebanon, while they added that Israel hid explosives inside a batch of Taiwanese pagers imported into Lebanon.
Taiwan’s Gold Apollo founder said the pagers in the Lebanon explosions were not made by the company and had their brand but production had been outsourced and were made by a company in Europe. Gold Apollo later stated that a company called BAC made the pagers used in the Lebanon blasts.
Jordanian armed forces thwarted an attempt by a drone to cross Jordanian territory, according to the state news agency.

OTHER

Russia’s Tver regional governor ordered a partial evacuation of Toropets town after a Ukrainian drone attack sparked a fire.
North Korea fired suspected ballistic missiles which fell shortly after and appeared to have landed outside of Japan’s Exclusive Economic Zone.
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said a Chinese aircraft carrier group sailed through waters to the northeast of Taiwan on Wednesday and then sailed to the southeast of Japan’s Yonaguni island, while NHK reported that a Chinese navy aircraft carrier temporarily entered Japan’s contiguous waters in a first such entry.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

ECB’s Villeroy said the French goal to cut the deficit to 3% of GDP by 2027 is not realistic and most of the effort should come from reducing spending, but targeted tax hikes are needed too.
Irish Central Bank lowered its 2024 HICP forecast to 1.6% from 1.7% and 2025 HICP forecast to 1.9% from 2.0%, while it cut its 2024 GDP forecast to -0.9% from 1.9% and raised 2025 GDP forecast to 4.6% from 4.4%. Furthermore, it stated that economic growth risks are tilted to the downside and risks to the inflation outlook are broadly balanced.
The Times’ BoE Shadow MPC said the Bank should leave rates unchanged whilst increasing the rate at which it reduces its balance sheet from GBP 100bln per year to GBP 120bln.

2 JAPAN

JAPAN USA/CHINA

3 CHINA

CHINA/USA

Threats on tariff crackdown and outlawing the de minimis rule puts Amazon and Walmart into chaos

It Changes The Math”: Biden’s Tariff Crackdown Throws Amazon And Walmart’s Sneaky China Plans Into Chaos

Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024 – 08:30 PM

Under mounting pressure from Chinese retail giants like Shein and Temu, American behemoths Amazon and Walmart have been cooking up a scheme to dodge tariffs and slash costs – but a new move by the Biden administration might just rain on their parade.

For months, these U.S. retailers have been quietly plotting to overhaul their business models, aiming to ship more goods directly from Chinese factories straight to your doorstep. By doing so, they’d cut out pricey U.S. warehouses and stores, all while skirting hefty tariffs using a little-known loophole in a century-old trade law.

This loophole, known as “de minimis,” lets importers bypass U.S. taxes and tariffs on shipments valued under $800. The result? Chinese platforms like Shein and Temu have been flooding the market with dirt-cheap products, leaving American companies scrambling to keep up.

But on Friday, the Biden administration threw a wrench in the works. In a surprise announcement, officials declared plans to slam the door on many Chinese imports exploiting the de minimis rule—especially clothing items. The crackdown aims to curb the tsunami of duty-free packages pouring into the country, predominantly from China.

While the changes won’t happen overnight – the proposal will undergo industry scrutiny before finalization – the message is clear: The free ride is coming to an end, the NY Times reports.

Amazon had been gearing up to launch a discount service capitalizing on direct-to-consumer shipments from China, insiders revealed. Walmart, even if reluctant to shake up its model, felt the heat to consider similar tactics to stay competitive.

“It’s get on board or get left behind,” said Steve Story, executive vice president for customs and international trade at Apex Logistics International. “If you don’t get online and embrace this, you’re going to be overshadowed by Shein, Temu, and Alibaba.“

Story admitted he’s assisted Chinese sellers in dodging tariffs by shipping through Amazon’s fulfillment centers, thanks to a 2020 customs ruling allowing Chinese firms to act as “non-resident importers.” Essentially, they can send products tariff-free to themselves via Amazon warehouses scattered across the U.S.

Traditionally, retailers hauled shipping containers loaded with goods from China to U.S. ports, then trucked them to warehouses and stores before reaching consumers. Now, many are bypassing this route, opting to individually package and ship items directly from China under the de minimis rule. This method not only avoids tariffs but also skirts the need for extensive warehousing.

The numbers are staggering. Packages entering the U.S. under the de minimis rule have skyrocketed to over one billion in 2023, up from a mere 140 million a decade ago. China is the chief contributor, sending more packages than all other countries combined.

American businesses are pissed – saying that the rules create an uneven playing field since brands with U.S. stores and warehouses are subject to more in tariffs compared to those shipping directly to consumers.

“De minimis is like a big tax incentive the U.S. is giving you to take the job somewhere else,” lamented Peter Bragdon, general counsel at Columbia Sportswear. “It changes the math.“

Mike Hesse, CEO of Nebraska-based Blue Ox, which manufactures tow bars for RVs, discovered Chinese knockoffs of his products being sold on Amazon and slipping into the country via de minimis.

“They’re a safety issue, plus consumers are duped into thinking they’re buying an American-made product,” Hesse fumed. “That’s how de minimis is affecting me.”

Some companies have accused Chinese firms of dirty tricks, like falsifying invoices to sneak pricier items under the $800 threshold or faking shipping documents to send bulk goods duty-free.

Meanwhile, some retailers have shifted warehouses to Canada or Mexico. From there, they can swiftly and legally ship items duty-free into the U.S. when orders roll in – taking more American jobs with them.

As the Biden administration tightens the screws on de minimis shipments from China, fears are mounting that imports from our neighbors might surge as companies look for new loopholes.

Even Chinese giants are bracing for impact. Shein says it’s open to reforming the tariff exemption and will adapt to keep customers happy. Temu has started highlighting products from “local warehouses,” a move seen as hedging against regulatory changes.

“This is clearly a strategic move to limit exposure to any regulatory shifts,” noted Juozas Kaziukenas, founder of e-commerce intelligence firm Marketplace Pulse.

All eyes are now on Washington. While lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have floated proposals to narrow the de minimis exemption, it’s uncertain whether they’ll rally behind a unified plan.

“The reason we really would like to see certainty is so everybody can plan business accordingly,” said Donald Tang, executive chairman of Shein, just a day before the administration’s bombshell announcement. “If everything is hanging in the middle… it’s not good for the business planning process.”

For Amazon, Walmart, and countless others, the race is on to adapt—or risk being left in the dust.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Now Tesla is paying workers cash for showing up for work and not on sick leave

(zerohedge)

Germany’s Sick Pay Dilemma: Tesla Dangles Cash For Workers To Show Up As Absences Skyrocket

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Faced with a surge in staff absences, Germany’s employers are reaching for a new trick to get workers to clock in: a cash bonus for not calling in sick. Tesla, headed by CEO Elon Musk, is leading the charge – offering workers at its Berlin plant up to €1,000 (US$1,111) just to show up.

According to Bloomberg, such measures speak to the severity of the workforce crisis engulfing Europe’s largest economy.

A combination of increased respiratory infections in the wake of Covid and deteriorating mental health have propelled sickness absences to the highest in Germany’s post-reunification history, impairing economic growth and exacerbating labor shortages, while heaping extra burdens onto businesses and the roughly one-third of workers who consistently show up.

As a result of more frequent infections, sick days have soared to levels not seen since reunification – causing production lines to grind to a halt, forcing businesses to strain under the weight of these unprecedented absences. Some companies even suspect that generous sick-pay benefits and pandemic-era rules allowing employees to call in sick by phone are being exploited by workers who aren’t actually ill.

In Germany, that figure has increased to at least 15 days per employee, and some estimates put the total nearer 20. This is one of highest rates in Europe; if attendance was better, Germany could have avoided a recession last year, economists say.

Volkswagen, meanwhile, is mulling over plant closures and layoffs for the first time, with reports suggesting that around 10% of its production workers are out sick—double the expected rate. The company is losing an estimated €1 billion per year due to these absences. Meanwhile, Tesla’s new pilot program, which offers €1,000 bonuses to employees who maintain a 95% attendance rate, is a clear sign of how dire things have become. And they’re not alone: Kiel’s transport company KVG and even Mercedes-Benz have dabbled in similar incentives, though with mixed results.

As Bloomberg‘s Chris Bryant notes, if employees feel forced to show up sick to earn a little extra cash, it could spell disaster for workplace health, while those with chronic conditions who stand no chance of getting a bonus will be left out.

Germany’s sick-leave policies are incredibly generous by international standards. Workers are entitled to six weeks of full pay when they call in sick, with costs covered by the employer—a system that costs companies around €70 billion annually. After six weeks, health insurers cover up to 70% of wages for up to 72 weeks. For Americans used to minimal or zero sick leave, this setup might sound like a dream. But with nearly 60% of Germans admitting they’ve called in sick when they could have worked, it’s clear the system isn’t without flaws.

So what’s next for Germany’s sick leave conundrum? The government has promised to review the pandemic-era rules allowing doctors to excuse workers from work over the phone for up to five days. But with a culture so deeply ingrained in protecting workers’ rights, even small changes are likely to face stiff resistance.

END

ITALY

The Media Is Exaggerating The Impact Of Anti-Proxy War Posters In Italy

:00 AM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

CNN headlined an article last week about how “Pro-Russian posters appear on billboards across Italy” as part of their ongoing campaign fearmongering about alleged Russian influence in the West.

The posters themselves are innocuous though and simply call for an end to the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine. Some municipalities like Rome ordered them taken down for using the city’s name and official symbol, but others let them stay up.

Ukraine protested these posters and predictably demanded censorship.

It turns out that all this is organized by a local activist who’s connected to groups formed during the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns, thus meaning that they represent Italians with heterodox views.

This analysis here from February shares more insight into evolving national sentiments towards this conflict, which are increasingly trending towards opposition to perpetuating it, while this one here from last weekend reminds everyone that folks can independently arrive at seemingly Russian-aligned views.

The insight from those two pieces discredits CNN’s innuendo that these posters are physical proof of a Russian influence campaign.

Rather, they’re just manifestations of citizens’ constitutionally enshrined freedom of speech, which is being practiced within legal limits in this case. Regardless of one’s views on this issue, it’s important that they don’t exaggerate the impact of these posters, which are unlikely to change Rome’s official stance towards the conflict.

Public sentiment is always important to pay attention to, but only in rare instances does it lead to a change in policy. When this does happen, it’s usually after elections and only if those who win do what they promised, which isn’t always the case. Another example is large-scale protests that inflict serious economic damage on the state, but these aren’t expected in Italy over this issue. Even if they occurred, however, forcible means could be employed for breaking them up and containing the economic fallout.

At the same time, however, public influence campaigns like the one that’s being legally waged by local activists in line with their constitutional rights could succeed in bringing more followers to their cause. In that case, some politicians might calculate that it’s better to speak out more loudly in favor of whatever it is that the people in general or a strategic constituency thereof are agitating for. Depending on the national political arrangement, this could destroy ruling coalitions and lead to early elections.

It’s therefore just as much of a mistake to dismiss the impact of this poster campaign and those like it as it is to exaggerate their impact. What CNN and Ukraine are doing is counterproductive to their proxy war cause though by hyping up what’s happening in order to push their anti-Russian fearmongering. By doing so, they’re amplifying the activists’ anti-proxy war message in ways that their posters could never achieve, plus they prove that there are people passionate enough to fund this public influence campaign.

On a closing note, these same activists might soon be accused of “receiving money from Russia” in order to discredit their campaign and fuel the Russiagate 2.0 conspiracy theory that the American elite have concocted ahead of the next elections, but observers shouldn’t take any such accusations at face value. All that’s happening is that a group of people are making their political opinions known in a peaceful way, which only bothers those who are insecure about the merits of their own contrarian views.

end

FRANCE

my goodness! France’s electricity prices turned negative at -22.25 euros per megawatt hr due to poor demand

(OIlPrice.com)

France’s Electricity Prices Turn Negative Amid Poor Demand

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 07:20 AM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

Power prices in France turned negative for hours on Tuesday morning amid tepid demand in a struggling economy and increased renewables generation.

French intraday power prices traded at as low as -$22.25 (-20 euros) per megawatt-hour (MWh) on the Epex Spot exchange, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

So far this year, France’s power demand has been undershooting projections by grid operator RTE as the French and European economies are seeing little – if any – growth.

France, which derives about 70% of its electricity from nuclear energy, returned last year to the top spot of Europe’s net power exporters, as its nuclear fleet returned from maintenance and domestic demand was lower. Even with high levels of electricity exports, power supply in France is set to exceed demand for several hours on Tuesday.

European wholesale electricity markets have seen zero or negative power prices for the most hours on record this year amid soaring renewable energy generation and a mismatch between supply and demand hours for solar power.

Negative pricing occurs when there is more electricity supply than demand, a scenario becoming more frequent as Europe continues its aggressive push toward renewable energy.

The number of tradable hours in which power prices were zero or negative have jumped so far this year in major wholesale power markets, including Germany, France, the Netherlands, Spain, Finland, and southern Sweden, per LSEG data cited by Reuters.

Zero or negative wholesale power prices have started to slow investment in capacity additions and make the case for the need for higher investment in energy storage, through which power producers would avoid curtailing electricity output or having to pay to offload electricity.

The rapid expansion of wind and solar capacity is reshaping the continent’s energy landscape. On days when both sources are generating at high levels, the market can become saturated with inexpensive power, driving prices down to the point where they even turn negative. While this benefits consumers in the short term, it also highlights the challenges of managing an energy grid increasingly reliant on intermittent renewable sources.

end

GERMANY

(REMIX)

Looks like Morocco based gangs blowing up facilities in Germany and Holland

(zerohedge)

Meanwhile In Germany…

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 09:05 AM

Via Remix News,

On Wednesday morning, another explosion rocked the city center of Cologne, this time destroying a clothing store and slightly injuring one person. This follows a similar explosive attack on a dance club on Monday, just a few hundred meters away, according to Mandiner.

The attack is just one of a wave of bombings in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), where Cologne is located, in recent months. Police are investigating a link with the notorious Mocro Mafia, which is based out of the Netherlands.

In the latest case, the clothing store “LFDY” was mostly destroyed in the bombing attack, which was carried out by unknown perpetrators. According to the Kölner Stadtanzeiger, the clothing store’s entrance was “massively damaged.”

Kidnappings and bomb attacks have been increasing for months in Germany as rival drug gangs clash. https://t.co/iZlvHIsVaf
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) September 17, 2024

The detonation occurred at around 5 a.m. on Ehrenstrasse, with officers sealing off the area to conduct a forensic investigation. They also asked residents from across the city to avoid the area.

Police suspect the Mocro Mafia is behind bombing wave

Previous bombings have occurred in July and August, including a large explosion in a commercial building in downtown Düsseldorf on July 11. Nobody was injured then, but investigators said they were checking a connection with the Dutch Mocro Mafia. The Moroccan-based gang is well known for contract killings and carrying out such brazen attacks in the Netherlands, and it is currently expanding its influence into Germany. Similar bombings took place in Engelskirchen and Duisburg in the summer, along with a hostage-taking incident in early July in Cologne-Rodenkirchen.

The hostage-taking incident occurred after the Mocro Mafia delivered 300 kilograms of marijuana to Cologne, at which point, a rival drug organization stole it, according to German news outlet WDR. The Moroccans used bombing attacks, took hostages, and employed other brutal methods to get back the marijuana.

In addition, a deadly bomb attack in Solingen, which was also the scene of the Islamic terror stabbing that cost lives last month, is believed to have been carried out on orders from the Mocro Mafia, which detonated too early, killing the 17-year-old ordered to deliver the bomb.

🇩🇪‼️ An African man has died in Germany after detonating an explosive device intended to blow up an Arab-owned restaurant too early.

The attack rocked Konrad-Adenauer-Straße in Solingen, NWR, on Tuesday afternoon and left four other people injured from the blast, including… pic.twitter.com/MC48xv0X6a
— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) June 26, 2024

On Monday, an explosion tore through the Cologne nightclub “Vanity,” with video of the incident going viral on social media. In that attack, a 53-year-old man was slightly injured. Police are searching for a suspect caught on surveillance video who was filmed lighting a plastic bag containing accelerant before the attack.

Read more here…

5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

Israeli ministers call for relocation of northern Gaza civilians to combat Hamas

A group of 27 Israeli ministers and MKs urged Prime Minister Netanyahu to implement a plan relocating northern Gaza civilians to combat Hamas.

By ELIAV BREUERSEPTEMBER 18, 2024 14:03

Palestinians walk next to a destroyed Mosque from an Israeli airstrike in the southern Gaza Strip, on September 9, 2024 (photo credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90) — Palestinians walk next to a destroyed Mosque from an Israeli airstrike in the southern Gaza Strip, on September 9, 2024(photo credit: ABED RAHIM KHATIB/FLASH90)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Fpolitics-and-diplomacy%2Farticle-820670&unitId=2900003088&userId=fc1f54a9-182e-48c4-af1c-0ddd1497d1d7&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240912_6b9d85abf961c144bd351750f981883328f45b26&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Some 27 ministers and Members of Knesset (MKs) from Israel’s coalition called in a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the national security cabinet on Wednesday to adopt a plan to transfer all civilians in northern Gaza to its south in order to “cleanse” the territory and defeat the remaining Hamas terrorists.

The letter was initiated by a forum called the “Forum Hamefakdim Vehalohamim Bemiliuim” (Reserve Commanders and Combat Soldiers Forum) and was promoted in the Knesset by Likud MK Avichai Boaron.

The letter called on the prime minister and national security cabinet to adopt a plan called the “General’s Plan,” which, according to the letter, was supported by reserve Major-Generals Gershon Hacohen, Giora Eiland, Eyal Eisenberg, and Avi Mizrahi, by “various experts,” and by the forum mentioned above.

PRIME MINISTER Benjamin Netanyahu has demonstrated repeatedly that he will take every opportunity to refute any blame thrown at him for October 7. (credit: Craig Hudson/Reuters)

The plan includes four stages: transferring the civilian population in northern Gaza to the south of the Netzarim corridor; initiating a siege of the north part of the Gaza Strip and pronouncing it a “closed military zone”; preventing deliveries to the area until it is “cleansed” and the remaining terrorists are defeated by applying “intense” military pressure; and conducting a similar procedure in other areas of the Gaza Strip.

Proposed plan to relocate northern Gaza

The letter did not indicate whether or not the civilians would be allowed to return to northern Gaza once fighting ended, nor who would govern the northern part of the Gaza Strip if they were allowed to return.

The ministers and MKs argued in the letter that the move was necessary in order to prevent Hamas from continuing to control the civilian population by taking control of aid distribution. They argued that this was an impediment to achieving the cabinet’s war goals and must be overcome.

The ministers and MKs added that the plan was “implementable” and achievable according to international law.

The ministers who signed the letter were Women’s Advancement Minister and Social Equality Minister May Golan, Environmental Protection Minister Idit Silman, and Diaspora Affairs and Combating Antisemitism Minister Amichai Chikli. MKs who signed came from the Likud, the Religious Zionist Party, and Otzma Yehudit.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

Gaza is totally destroyed and yet 39% still think it was the correct move to attack on Oct 7?

(Times of Israel)

Poll finds shrinking support in Gaza for Hamas decision to launch October 7 attack

Only 39% of respondents in Strip now say assault on southern Israel that sparked war was correct move, though in West Bank 64% still think terror group made the right call

By Reuters and ToI Staff17 September 2024, 9:27 pm

Gazans celebrate by a destroyed Israeli tank at the broken Israel-Gaza border fence, east of Khan Younis, October 7, 2023. (AP/Yousef Masoud)

A Palestinian polling center published data Tuesday showing most Gazans believe Hamas’s decision to launch the October 7 massacre on Israel was incorrect, months after Israel accused the pollster of using falsified figures claiming high levels of support for the terror group.

The poll, conducted in early September by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PCPSR), found that 57 percent of people surveyed in the Gaza Strip said the decision to launch the offensive was incorrect, while 39% said it was correct.

It marked the first time since October 7 that a PCPSR poll found a majority of Gazan respondents judging the decision as incorrect, coming after nearly a year of war that has devastated the Strip. PSR’s previous poll, conducted in June, showed that 57% of respondents in Gaza thought the decision to be correct.

In the West Bank, support for the assault also fell, though 64% of respondents there still agreed with Hamas’s decision, the poll found.

Taken together, 54% of respondents in Gaza and the West Bank thought the decision was correct.

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PCPSR said it surveyed 1,200 people face-to-face for the poll, 790 of them in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza, with a 3.5% margin of error.

In August, the Israeli military accused Hamas of mounting an effort to falsify the results of PCPSR polls to show spurious support for Hamas and October 7, though the military said there was no evidence the center had cooperated with Hamas.

PCPSR said Tuesday an internal investigation did not flag any inconsistencies that would arise when data is arbitrarily altered, and that a review of quality control measures “convinced us that no data manipulation took place.”

It noted that support for October 7 did not necessarily mean support for Hamas or killings or atrocities against civilians. The group’s polls have shown the vast majority of Gazans do not think Hamas attacked civilians or committed other atrocities in the assault, despite a preponderance of videos and other evidence.

Some 1,200 people were killed when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists burst into communities across southern Israel, slaughtering whole families and massacring over 350 people at an outdoor music festival.

The group also kidnapped 251 people, 97 of whom remain captive in Gaza, including the remains of dozens the IDF says were killed.

Palestinian women mourn people killed in Israeli strikes on the Bureij refugee camp, after their bodies were taken to the al-Awda Hospital at the Nuseirat Refugee Camp in the central Gaza Strip on September 17, 2024. (Eyad BABA / AFP)

The vast majority of victims were civilians, though the group also attacked military posts and killed hundreds of soldiers.

Israel responded with a military campaign aimed at toppling Hamas and freeing the hostages, with much of Gaza left in ruins. Hamas-controlled health authorities claim over 40,000 were killed in the war, without differentiating between civilians and combatants. Israel says it has killed at least 17,000 terror operatives in Gaza as of August, along with at least 1,000 killed inside Israel on October 7.

Previous PCPSR polls since the October 7 assault have consistently shown a majority of respondents in both Gaza and the West Bank to believe the attack was a correct decision, with support generally greater in the West Bank than Gaza.

The poll released on Tuesday was the first since October 7 to show significant drops in support for the attack in both the West Bank and Gaza. It was also the first to show lowered expectations in both places that Hamas will win the war.

The poll released Tuesday also showed a slight drop in Gazan respondents who said they support Hamas, from 38% to 35%. The terror group remains more popular than Fatah, led by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, in both Gaza and the West Bank.

ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH.

Israeli air, artillery strikes pound Hezbollah in southern Lebanon

In addition to the Majdal Selm IAF strike, the air force reportedly struck Hezbollah structures in another five areas of southern Lebanon.

By SAM HALPERN, JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 18, 2024 07:30Updated: SEPTEMBER 18, 2024 12:17

AN ISRAELI M109 howitzer fires artillery shells. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT) — AN ISRAELI M109 howitzer fires artillery shells.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-820624&unitId=2900003088&userId=fc1f54a9-182e-48c4-af1c-0ddd1497d1d7&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20240912_6b9d85abf961c144bd351750f981883328f45b26&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The Israel Air Force and IDF artillery struck numerous Hezbollah terrorist targets in southern Lebanon since Tuesday, including a Hezbollah structure in the Majdal Selm area in which terrorists had been observed operating, the IDF reported on Wednesday.

In addition to the Majdal Selm IAF strike, the air force reportedly struck Hezbollah structures in another five areas of southern Lebanon.

Overnight into Wednesday morning, the air force also struck Hezbollah structures in the Odaisseh, Markaba, Blida, Maroun El Ras, and Chihine areas as well, the military continued.

Later, starting at 4:32 a.m. local time on Wednesday, multiple drone intrusion alerts sounded in several localities in the area of Lake Kinneret in northern Israel. Sirens blared in Tiberias, Kfar Nahum, and Ginossar, among other places.

Following the sirens, Israeli media reported there had been two interceptions above Tiberias, with no injuries being reported.

The Israeli Air Force works to fight new and developing threats across the region (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)

Drone coming from Iraq

In a later Wednesday statement, the IDF reported that the drone intercepted after sirens sounded in the Sea of Galilee area had approached Israeli territory from Iraq.

Drone intrusion alerts sounded last in Tiberias on October 11, 2023. This comes after thousands of Hezbollah members were wounded in Lebanon on Tuesday when the pagers they used to communicate exploded.

Israeli artillery also fired on targets in Lebanon’s south, the military noted in its earlier Wednesday morning statement, adding that the army would “continue to operate against the threat of the Hezbollah terrorist organization in order to defend the State of Israel.”

Explosion over Nahariya coast heard

Later, after residents of the northern Israeli city of Nahariya heard an explosion on Wednesday morning, Israeli media reported that the IDF‘s aerial defense array intercepted an aerial target over the coast.

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON

UPDATE FROM LAST NIGHT;

War Preparations Build After 9 Killed, 2700+ Wounded In Israel’s Pager Attack On Hezbollah

Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024 – 02:50 PM

Update(1445ET): Official Lebanese Health Ministry figures are that nine people were killed in the simultaneous pager explosions, including a young girl, and some 2,750 wounded. The Lebanese government has identified “Israeli aggression” as being behind the attack, while Hezbollah also says it holds Israel “fully responsible”. Israel has yet to issue official comment, but there are several reports from the region that war preparations are underway. There are reports of evening Israeli shelling of Hezbollah positions in south Lebanon.

Israel’s Channel 14 is reporting that “senior Israeli military officials are preparing for a third Hezbollah war which is expected to begin almost immediately.” The US State Department has said the US “was not aware of this operation and was not involved” in the attack. The Biden administration says it is “still gathering information”.

The WSJ has offered some initial details on the sophisticated attack, which Lebanese and Arabs have condemned as a major ‘terror attack’. “The affected pagers were from a new shipment that the group received in recent days, people familiar with the matter said,” WSJ writes. “A Hezbollah official said hundreds of fighters had such devices, speculating that malware may have caused the devices to explode. The official said some people felt the pagers heat up and disposed of them before they burst.”

“Absolute chaos and mayhem across Lebanon” after exploding pagers kill at least 9 and wound 2,800, in what @KimGhattas says is “clearly a targeted attack by Israel against Hezbollah operatives.” The Israeli military is refusing to comment on the explosions. pic.twitter.com/t9f4r9ernc
— Christiane Amanpour (@amanpour) September 17, 2024

And more: “Hezbollah said a number of pagers carried by its members exploded simultaneously at 3:30 p.m. It couldn’t immediately be determined what caused the blasts, which were spread out across the country in several areas where Hezbollah has a heavy presence.”

Israeli media says Mossad rigged the pager batteries of a shipment that was imported five months ago:

The Israeli spy agency placed a quantity of PETN, a highly explosive material, on the batteries of the devices, and detonated them by raising the temperature of the batteries from afar, the source says.

There are initial reports that more European airlines have began cancelling flights to Lebanon and Israel amid more headlines of war plans. Lebanese schools and colleges have announced widespread closures tomorrow. The US administration appears to be standing idly by in the meantime.

Amid the Hezbollah pager incident, I’m reminded of what a Pentagon official told me not long ago: “We have let Israel face 0 consequences for crossing all our red lines in Gaza so they are emboldened & know they face no consequences for going into Lebanon” https://t.co/odsQguFPMI
— Akbar Shahid Ahmed (@AkbarSAhmed) September 17, 2024

War looks imminent:

It's likely we will see the start of an israeli invasion into South Lebanon… timing matters, and Hezbollah will need some weeks to recover at least some of its strength. Another reason is US elections in 50 days, Gaza war hurt Biden, and possibly a Lebanon war will hurt Kamala https://t.co/8JY17QFg7m
— Aram (@AramKrdstn) September 17, 2024

end

Lebanon pager blast: Hezbollah has no idea what hit it – analysis

Hezbollah was caught off-guard by a cyberattack on the Lebanon terrorist organization pagers that wounded thousands of members.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 17, 2024 17:23Updated: SEPTEMBER 17, 2024 21:36

People gather outside a hospital in Beirut, Lebanon, September 17, 2024 (photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR) — People gather outside a hospital in Beirut, Lebanon, September 17, 2024(photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)

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Mid-afternoon on Tuesday, Hezbollah pagers exploded across Lebanon.

The Lebanese organization had no idea what hit it.

Whoever planned and set up this simultaneous multifront strike had doubtless been holding this capability in check, waiting for months – if not years – for the right moment to strike.

Advances in hacking capabilities

In recent years, there have been tremendous advances in cell phone hacking capabilities, which can be incredibly damaging.

Already between the years 2009-2010, the US and Israel hacked and destroyed over 1,000 Iranian nuclear centrifuges. The US later hacked a critical Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intelligence-gathering naval vessel.

On May 9, 2020, Iran’s Shahid Rajaee seaport was shut down, causing massive delays and economic damage for months, and on October 30, 2021, 4,300 Iranian gas stations nationwide were hacked and shut down.

In the hard-hitting conflicts of the 21st century, whoever wields the latest cutting-edge technological weapons can run circles around their otherwise formidable enemies.

Tuesday’s events occurred only hours after the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) revealed that Hezbollah had tried to assassinate a top Israeli ex-defense chief. Shortly before the explosions, there were reports of a special meeting between Mossad director David Barnea and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Given the juxtaposition in the timing and the last few hysterical hours in Israel about a security situation with Lebanon, is it possible that Israel carried out its second attack on Hezbollah in Beirut? And, could this be in direct retaliation for Hezbollah’s failed assassination attempt, or rather, on the heels of nearly a year of the origination firing at Israel?

The last time the Jewish state attacked Beirut was on July 30, when it assassinated Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr in retaliation for the Majdal Shams rocket attack, which killed 12 Druze children.

This nearly exploded into a full-scale war between the sides on August 25. Still, the IDF managed a preemptive strike that substantially reduced Hezbollah’s ability to fire more than a fraction of the rockets that it had intended to direct at Israel, including at northern Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah has pledged that any attack on Beirut would be met with a massive counter-strike.

Will he keep his promise, or will Hezbollah back down, given that it started this round with an attempted assassination, and given the IDF’s success against Hezbollah on August 25?

Another question that remains is: What is the endgame for the entity standing behind the explosive devices incident in Beirut? Will this be a knock-out punch on its own, or will this be a bloody hit that will leave Hezbollah still standing, the dilemma of war between Israel and Lebanon still reaming up in the air, though possibly closer than ever?

END

Senior Lebanese security source: Mossad ‘injected’ explosive material into the pagers

By Reuters

BEIRUT — Israel’s Mossad spy agency planted a small amount of explosives inside 5,000 Taiwan-made pagers ordered by the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah months before Tuesday’s detonations, a senior Lebanese security source and another source tell Reuters.

The plot appears to have been many months in the making, several sources tell Reuters.

The senior Lebanese security source says Hezbollah ordered 5,000 beepers made by Taiwan-based Gold Apollo, which several sources say were brought into the country in the spring.

The senior Lebanese security source identifies a photograph of the model of the pager, an AP924, which like other pagers wirelessly receive and display text messages but cannot make telephone calls.

But the senior Lebanese source says the devices had been modified by Israel’s spy service “at the production level.”

“The Mossad injected a board inside of the device that has explosive material that receives a code. It’s very hard to detect it through any means. Even with any device or scanner,” the source says.

The source says 3,000 of the pagers exploded when a coded message was sent to them, simultaneously activating the explosives.

end

LATE IN THE DAY: Israel gives green light for offensive war against Hezbollah who are now in disarray!

Israel’s War Cabinet Greenlights Offensive War Against Hezbollah, Sends Elite Brigade North

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 03:44 PM

Update(1544): As many suspected and feared, this deadly two-day Israeli covert operation to blow up Hezbollah pagers, walkie-talkies, and small electronic devices was but preparation for a likely Israeli military ground operation in southern Lebanon. It appears war is here. According to breaking news wires:

Israeli cabinet has given PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant the authorization to undertake military action against Hezbollah — even if it leads to an all-out war.

So far the second day of explosions across Beirut and Lebanon have led to 14 killed and 450 wounded, but the casualty toll could be much higher.

Defense Minister Gallant has also declared a “new phase” of operations against Hezbollah along northern Israel:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF chief Herzi Halevi and other officials all issued statements Wednesday evening which appeared to suggest a full-on war with Hezbollah was brewing, hours after a wave of explosions of walkie-talkies and other communications devices used by Hezbollah members across Lebanon caused widespread casualties, echoing a similar attack a day earlier that targeted Hezbollah-issued pagers.

The IDF also announced Wednesday that it was redeploying its 98th Division to northern Israel, after months of operations in the Gaza Strip under the Southern Command.

Israel has further just ordered an elite brigade to the north:

The Israeli army announced it’s transferring the 98th Division from the Gaza Strip to the northern border with Lebanon as tensions continue to escalate.

With about 10,000-20,000 soldiers, the paratroopers and commandos will now join the 36th Division under the Northern Command.

BREAKING:
Netanyahu got the green light for war with Hezbollah

The Israeli war cabinet has given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu full authorization to take offensive and defensive action against Hezbollah, even if it leads to an all-out war – Kann pic.twitter.com/whDcYyTbVc
— Lou Rage (@lifepeptides) September 18, 2024

The attacks in Lebanon have impacted a wide array of small electronic devices far beyond just pagers…

My cousin in Beirut messaged me saying she disconnected her baby monitor and other household appliances and devices. Our people are unaware of which devices are safe and which are not. If this was happening in “Israel” the entire world would be condemning it. It is terrorism.
— ➳❥ (@VintageVault8) September 18, 2024

* * *

Axios and regional media are reporting a new wave of blasts in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, including explosions in the south of the country.

Israel has reportedly detonated hand-held personal radios used by Hezbollah members, the emerging reports say. The prominent regional news source War Monitor writes “Communications devices that exploded across Lebanon moments ago are hand-held radios, different to pagers that exploded on Tuesday, Security sources informed me.”

Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV is also confirming wireless devices exploded in the hands of those carrying them in several Lebanese areas. There are reports of at least nine new fatalities and over 300 injured in this second day of explosions.

Several ambulances have been witnessed rushing to the scenes of multiple new blasts. It appears the Israeli covert operation to sow chaos within Hezbollah’s ranks is not over.

This comes after the group said it would be checking and inspecting all externally shipped-in electronic devices, considering it’s clear at this point the pagers were manipulated by Israeli intelligence.

#BREAKING
🚨‼️ Initial reports indicate that wireless devices have exploded again few minutes ago in several areas of the suburbs of #Beirut and in south of Lebanon.#LebanonUnderAttack pic.twitter.com/nhbtnF42cL
— Rula El Halabi (@Rulaelhalabi) September 18, 2024

Ironically, Hezbollah relied on encrypted pagers in the first place because older tech was considered immune from Israeli intercepts. Governments and intelligence services can more easily sweep up cell communications. However, it has become clear that Israel has deeply penetrated Hezbollah telecoms in a very direct way:

Jody Westby of Global Cyber Risk says Hezbollah relied on “old technology” because it thought it would make its members’ lines of communication more secure.

Speaking to Al Jazeera from Washington, DC, Westby said Hezbollah used the pagers because they are more difficult to intercept and it is harder to trace the communications passed through them.

“This is digital warfare. What they did was take out a line of communication for Hezbollah. Clearly, it was planted, planned and it was effective. I wouldn’t call it a weapon of mass destruction. I would just call it an autonomous weapon, an executed military action,” she said.

Axios’ Barak Ravid is reporting Wednesday, “Israel blew up thousands of personal radios (Walkie-Talkies) which were used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon in a second wave of its intelligence operation which started on Tuesday with the explosions of Hezbollah pager devices, per two sources with knowledge.”

Footage purportedly shows the moment a Hezbollah walkie-talkie exploded during a funeral in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut. https://t.co/3Qpkdgcjcy pic.twitter.com/BfzeeYykfL
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) September 18, 2024

Below are more eyewitness reports from Al Jazeera correspondents on the ground in south Beirut:

We can confirm that there was at least one explosion in Dahiya neighborhood in the southern suburbs of Beirut. We’re at Hamra, which is sometimes referred to as the hospital area – there are three hospitals very close to each other.

Now we are hearing a lot of ambulance activity in the area suggesting there may be well casualties coming here or other hospitals nearby, possibly as a result of explosions within Beirut itself.

A car bomb has also reportedly gone off in the southern Lebanese city of Tyre.

Yaroslav Trofimov writes pretty much what everyone is thinking: “Blow up pagers, force the surviving Hezbollah cadres to rely on walkie talkies, and then blow up the much bigger explosive devices inside the walkie talkies. A TV spy series producers would rule out this twist plot as impossible to believe in.”

Simultaneous explosions are being reported in various devices, not just personal radios.

Multiple explosions can be heard in different apartments of this single residential building in Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/QvMVt5ZSX7
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) September 18, 2024

War correspondent Elijah Magnier says this appears a prelude to a major Israeli military operation in Lebanon: “Normally in every war, the first attack is on a command-control base, and here the Israelis are attacking the control, which is the communication. Crippling communication is vital in any war because it is the main spine of the [enemy] army.”

Meanwhile, UN and other international/western entities are reportedly coming under attack on suspicion of spying on behalf of Israel…

#BREAKING

A UNIFIL patrol vehicle is attacked by civilians in Tyre, Lebanon pic.twitter.com/JinO8v567i
— Brian’s Breaking News and Intel (@intelFromBrian) September 18, 2024

developing…

ISRAEL/SYRIA/IRAN

now we learn that 19 IRGC members were killed in Syria after their pagers exploded

(JerusalemPost)

Pager explosions killed 19 IRGC members in Syria – report

An additional 150 IRCG members were also wounded in the explosions, Army Radio reported, citing the Saudi news source.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 18, 2024 15:18Updated: SEPTEMBER 18, 2024 15:57

‘A MONSTER’ – Members of the IRGC attend a ground forces military drill in the East Azerbaijan province of Iran in 2022. (photo credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS) — ‘A MONSTER’ – Members of the IRGC attend a ground forces military drill in the East Azerbaijan province of Iran in 2022.(photo credit: IRGC/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Handout via REUTERS)

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19 Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members were killed after their pagers had exploded in Deir ez-Zur in eastern Syria, Saudi news source Al-Hadath reported Wednesday afternoon.

An additional 150 IRCG members were also wounded in the explosions, Army Radio reported, citing the Saudi news source.

The report came a day after around 4,000 Hezbollah members had their pagers also exploded in an attack reportedly attributed to Israel. Foreign reports attribute the attack to the Mossad and IDF.

Iranian ambassador also wounded

Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon Mojtaba Amani was also wounded in the attack, Iranian state-owned Mehr News Agency reported.

ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY Guard Corps Commander-in-Chief Major General Hossein Salami looks on during a ceremony in Tehran, last month. Afshin Payravi, a member of the Iranian opposition, says that the alliance between ISIS and the IRGC is no secret. (credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

The day after, IDF artillery struck numerous Hezbollah terror targets in southern Lebanon, with the IAF striking in Odaisseh, Markaba, Blida, Maroun El Ras, and Chihine areas as well.

end

Then late this morning, this was reported: wow! seems that iphones, video cameras and other devices were detonated

Additional Hezbollah devices explode across Lebanon

This comes after thousands of Hezbollah members were wounded on Tuesday after the pagers they used to communicate detonated.

By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 18, 2024 17:04Updated: SEPTEMBER 18, 2024 17:51

Smoke rises from a mobile shop as civil defence members gather in Sidon, Lebanon September 18, 2024 (photo credit: REUTERS/HASSAN HANKIR) — Smoke rises from a mobile shop as civil defence members gather in Sidon, Lebanon September 18, 2024(photo credit: REUTERS/HASSAN HANKIR)

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Lebanese media reported another round of explosions throughout the country midday on Wednesday.

Initial vague reports of networked devices exploding came in from Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, and throughout Lebanon.

If true, this would be the second consecutive day of potential sabotage and explosions in Lebanon after around 3,000 mostly members of Hezbollah were wounded by exploding beepers on Tuesday.

According to the reports, the explosions occurred at and in parallel to the funeral of four Hezbollah members in Lebanon. The funeral was live-streamed on X but ended abruptly.

Unofficial reports claimed that iPhones, video cameras, and other devices also detonated.

Smoke rises from a mobile shop as civil defence members gather in Sidon, Lebanon September 18, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/HASSAN HANKIR)

According to unconfirmed reports, Hezbollah has told its operatives to distance itself from communication devices.

Unofficial reports also claimed that Hezbollah told its members to dispose of devices containing a lithium battery or that are connected to the internet.

Reuters later quoted senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine as saying the terror group was in a “new phase” and a “punishment is certainly coming.

Reuters also added, according to a security source, that the hand-held radios via which the explosions reportedly occurred were bought by Hezbollah five months ago at the same time as the pagers.

Later, Lebanese state media reported that three people had been killed in the explosions.

Accusing Israel

Hezbollah has accused Israel of being the saboteur, with Jerusalem staying publicly silent on the issue, but with several foreign media outlets reporting that the Mossad and IDF intelligence were behind it, and with The Jerusalem Post independently confirming significant aspects of the saga.

This is a developing story.

END

SAME STORY AS ABOVE/TIMES OF ISRAEL

ISRAEL LEBANON

WALKIE TALKIES blew up across the country!

Hundreds more hurt, 9 killed in Lebanon in 2nd wave of Hezbollah device explosions

Walkie-talkies blow up around country; one explosion witnessed at funeral for victim of Tuesday’s pager attack; some solar energy systems said to also detonate

By Agencies and Emanuel Fabian Follow
Today, 8:10 pm

People gather as firefighters put out the flames at the scene of a device explosion in Saida in southern Lebanon on September 18, 2024, a day after thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded in an attack blamed on Israel. (Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

A fresh wave of explosions ripped across Lebanon on Wednesday afternoon, appearing to mainly target hand-held radios used by Hezbollah members, a day after thousands were wounded when their pagers spontaneously exploded in a coordinated attack widely blamed on Israel after months of cross-border fire.

At least nine people were killed in Wednesday’s second wave of blasts, the state news agency reported, and at least 300 were wounded in the latest device blast, according to Lebanese officials.

Explosions were also reported in phones, solar energy systems and fingerprint reading devices used by the group.

At least one of the blasts took place at a funeral organized by Iran-backed Hezbollah for some of the 12 people killed in the pager explosion attack on Tuesday. An AP photographer in the southern coastal city of Sidon saw a car and a mobile phone shop that were damaged by devices exploding inside of them.

“A number of walkie-talkies exploded in Beirut’s southern suburbs,” a source told Reuters, with Hezbollah-affiliated rescuers confirming devices had exploded inside two cars in the area.

Hezbollah’s Al Manar TV reported explosions in multiple areas of Lebanon, and a Hezbollah official told The Associated Press that walkie-talkies used by the group exploded as part of blasts heard in Beirut. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media.

Images circulating online purported to show the devices, which appeared to be different and larger than the pagers that exploded Tuesday. The hand-held radios were purchased by Hezbollah five months ago, around the same time that the pagers were bought, said a security source.

Explosions are reported by Lebanese media in several other areas of Lebanon, and not just in the Dahiyeh suburb of Beirut.

The cause of the blasts is not immediately known, although some reports speculate that it could be additional pagers.
— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) September 18, 2024

A Reuters reporter in the southern suburbs of Beirut said he saw Hezbollah members frantically taking out the batteries of any walkie-talkies on them that had not exploded, tossing the parts in metal barrels around them.

Images of the exploded walkie-talkies examined by Reuters showed an inside panel labeled “ICOM” and “Made in Japan.” According to its website, ICOM is a Japan-based radio communications and telephone company.

Lebanon’s Red Cross said on X that it was responding with 30 ambulance teams to multiple explosions in different areas.

Lebanon’s official news agency reported that solar energy systems exploded in homes in several areas of Beirut and in southern Lebanon, wounding at least one girl. The reports of further electronic devices exploding suggested even greater infiltration into Hezbollah’s supply chain than was previously thought.

The new round of explosions on Wednesday came as Lebanon and Hezbollah were still struggling to come to terms with the shock and scale of Tuesday’s attack. Israel has not commented on the pager explosions, although US officials have indicated to some foreign media outlets that Jerusalem was behind the attack.

The death toll from Tuesday’s blasts rose to 12, including two children, Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said on Wednesday. Tuesday’s attack wounded nearly 3,000 people, including many of the terror group’s fighters and Iran’s envoy to Beirut.

لحظة انفجار جهاز لاسلكي أثناء تشييع في الضاحية الجنوبية pic.twitter.com/jNYyKHhzDq
— Al Jadeed News (@ALJADEEDNEWS) September 18, 2024

would avenge the attack, while vowing to continue its fight against Israel in support of Hamas in the Gaza war.

Cross-border exchanges with Israeli forces were “ongoing and separate from the difficult reckoning that the criminal enemy must await for its massacre,” Hezbollah said.

Since October 8, Hezbollah and other Lebanon-based terror groups have been firing rockets and missiles at Israel’s north on a near-daily basis, killing at least 26 civilians in Israel and 20 IDF soldiers. Hezbollah has named more than 450 members killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 79 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.

On Wednesday evening, Hezbollah fired a barrage of some 20 rockets at northern Israel, setting off sirens in Kiryat Shmona and a number of surrounding areas. The IDF said some of the rockets were intercepted, and there were no reports of injuries.

Hezbollah took responsibility for the attack, claiming to have targeted an Israeli military base.

Earlier in the day, a barrage of 10 rockets was fired from Lebanon at the Western Galilee, with all the missiles striking open areas, causing no injuries, according to the IDF.

Rockets fired from southern Lebanon are intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome air defense system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel, on September 18, 2024. (Jalaa MAREY / AFP)

Meanwhile the IDF on Wednesday announced that it was redeploying its 98th Division to northern Israel after months of operations in the Gaza Strip under the Southern Command, given the backdrop of the heightened tensions with Hezbollah.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday evening that Israel’s focus has moved to the northern front as a “new phase” of the war was beginning.

“The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north,” Gallant told Israeli Air Force personnel at the Ramat David Airbase, in remarks published by his office. “I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war, and we need to adapt.”

The chief of the IDF’s Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, said Wednesday that the military was determined to change the security situation on the Lebanese border as soon as possible.

“The mission is clear: We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible. The commitment of the commanders and the troops here is complete, with peak readiness for any task that will be required,” Gordin said in remarks provided by the IDF.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Zelensky is now pressured to find a Plan B ceasefire as Ukraine losing too many soldiers

(zerohedge)

Zelensky Pressured By Western Diplomats To Find ‘Plan B’ Ceasefire Track Amid Losses

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 04:15 AM

Headlines in major US outlets last week and this week point to some behind the scenes scrambling and a degree of panic among Ukraine’s Western backers. There is beginning to be acceptance that Kiev forces are losing the war, and that Moscow won’t quit until Putin sees the goals of the ‘special military operation’ through. The alternatives include either nuclear-armed escalation (NATO vs. Russia) or ceasefire negotiations, and Zelensky is now being pressed to think about a “plan B”—as The Wall Street Journal recently wrote.

Be realistic… is the new message coming from NATO allies to Zelensky. “Now, with Russia continuing to make slow gains on the battlefield and Western support for Ukraine showing signs of fatigue, Ukraine may need to come up with a more realistic plan, at least for the next year of the war, according to European diplomats,” WSJ wrote last week.

“The West still backs Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-term stated aim of taking back control of its territory,” the report continued. “But some European diplomats say Ukraine needs to be more pragmatic in its wartime aims and strategy. That could help Western officials advocate to their respective voters the need to funnel arms and aid to the country.”

…Or to put it another way, the taxpaying Western public wants this conflict to end as fast as possible, and without sinking billions more into it, because they are sick and tired of the constant escalation and want to see peace.

Earlier this month White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby spelled out that “Certainly a negotiated end is the most likely outcome here, but when that happens, and under what conditions and circumstances, that’s going to be up to President Zelensky.”

And yet, simultaneous to this talk of a “plan B” toward peace negotiations, the US and UK are mulling allowing Kiev to attack Russian territory with long-range weapons.

Bloomberg on Tuesday has followed WSJ’s reporting by confirming that Western diplomats are increasingly vocal on the prospect of a quicker negotiated end to the drawn out conflict.

“As part of their discussions of strategy for the next year, officials are more seriously gaming out how a negotiated end to the conflict and an off-ramp could take shape, according to people familiar with the matter who asked for anonymity to discuss private deliberations,” the report says. But the hawks are concerned this could lead to a ‘pre-mature’ ceasefire.

The report continues:

The people made clear that any decision to negotiate would be for Kyiv to make and that nobody is pressuring Volodomyr Zelenskyy into talks. Ukraine’s president has been adamant, publicly and privately, that ceding territory to Russia would be unfair, the people said. With no sign that Russia has scaled back its objectives, the prospect of real negotiations still remains distant, they said.

But as the war heads toward another winter, there’s little sign of breakthrough on the battlefield. That’s prompting some allied officials to start exploring ways in which diplomacy could break the deadlock.

Indeed the question of what’s fair or unfair is a moot point, as the outcome is being decided on the battlefield, hence the growing pressure for Kiev to get serious about negotiations.

Pro-Ukraine hawks are still pushing hard for US to greenlight escalation…

NEW!!! Still no new announcement on Ukraine’s request to strike back deep inside russia, State Dept says.

“How do you expect Ukraine to win this war with one hand tied behind?” — I asked DoS Spox 👇🏻👇🏻 pic.twitter.com/AYpPOUC72Z
— Alex Raufoglu (@ralakbar) September 17, 2024

But Zelensky still hopes to draw NATO in deeper, which is why the big lobbying push has been in full swing for the US/UK to allow launching missiles deep into Russian territory. The Biden administration has looked hesitant in the face of Putin threats and red lines, and this is a good thing. Let’s hope saner minds prevail and that negotiations begin soon.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/

Ukraine hits a weapons depot with a drone strike

(zerohedge)

Drone Strike On Arsenal Triggers Biggest Explosion On Russian Soil Of The War

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 08:45 AM

An overnight Ukrainian drone attack triggered a massive explosion and large fires in northwestern Russia’s Tver region. Is believed the initial drone strike hit an important Russian weapons stockpile.

“A fire started in Toropets, Tver region, as a result of falling debris from a drone that was repelled by air defense forces,” the Tver regional administration said early Wednesday. The oblast declared a “partial evacuation” due to the large blast and surrounding fires. Social media video showed a huge fireball erupt against the night sky.

Just look at the size of the blast in Tver. It takes the sound of the explosion 6 seconds to arrive, so this must have been 2km (1.3 miles) away. Must be the largest explosion of the war so far. Russians lost a lot of ammo. pic.twitter.com/c69oVR6Pr7
— kraut △ (@Der_Parrot) September 18, 2024

The above video was likely take from 2km away or more, strongly suggesting this could be the largest explosion of the war on Russian territory. There’s widespread speculation that it was a missile and ammo storage site.

“A NASA satellite image showed a concentrated set of fires east of Toropets, covering an area of 13 square kilometers (5.2 square miles) as of early Wednesday,” Amsterdam-based The Moscow Times writes.

“The site corresponds with the location of the Russian Defense Ministry’s main missile and artillery directorate arsenal, situated 488 kilometers northeast of Ukraine’s border,” the report continues. If true, then Moscow is likely to view such a major attack so deep into Russia as having a NATO hand behind it.

Reuters has described it as an “earthquake-sized blast” which also resulted in a mushroom cloud rising high after the explosion. Some online commentators went so far as to say the blast looks suspiciously nuclear.

President Putin last week said it has become clear that NATO countries assist with targeting and that its satellites and coordinating systems must be involved in such attacks.

Kyiv owned up to the attack, with a government statement saying Ukraine’s Security Service and Intelligence and Special Operations Forces launched the strike. Russian state media has been quiet about the details or confirmation, and the Russian defense ministry has seemed slow to weigh in. This is likely because it was a highly sensitive facility and this is a huge blow to Russia’s military.

A EuroNews/AP report has quoted a Ukrainian source as saying “the depot housed Iskander and Tochka-U missiles, as well as glide bombs and artillery shells.”

The big overnight cross-border drone attack came amid a broader wave that included possibly hundreds of UAVs. Russia’s defense ministry said its air defense forces shot down 54 of them over five regions during the night morning hours attack.

The drone assault on the arsenal triggered secondary blasts resulting in fires that spread across a huge expanse. The smoke clouds hovering over the site have nearly blacked out the sun:

💥Tonight, as a result of a 🇺🇦Ukrainian kamikaze drone strike, the ammunition warehouse in the city of Toropets, Tver region was destroyed.

~766km from Ukraine 🤯🤯🤯

A GREAT START TO THE DAY!🔥🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/YLFPa2gp7E
— Cloooud |🇺🇦 (@GloOouD) September 18, 2024

According to a review summary of what’s now about the Tver site that exploded via Al Jazeera:

According to a RIA state news agency report from 2018, Russia was building an arsenal for the storage of missiles, ammunition and explosives in Toropets.
The arsenal was built in 2015 at a cost of 3.6 billion roubles ($39m), according to Rossiyskaya Gazeta, the Russian government’s official newspaper.
It is equipped with cold and heated rooms, electrical substations, treatment facilities, water and fuel storage tanks, and more than 100 fire ponds, the newspaper said.
The arsenal was put into operation in 2018, then-deputy Defence Minister Dmitry Bulgakov told RIA. Bulgakov was arrested earlier this year on corruption charges, which he denies.
Bulgakov said in 2018 that the arsenal is equipped with concrete facilities for storing missiles, ammunition and explosives in the proper conditions, RIA reported.
Bulgakov told Russian army news outlet Zvezda in 2018 that the full load of each storage facility of the arsenal is up to 240 tonnes.
The arsenal also has facilities to accommodate up to 200 servicemen, the RIA report says.

The US and UK have meanwhile been in discussions about greenlighting use of long-range missiles against Russia. The US administration has been cautious in the face of Putin’s red lines.

RUSSIA

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

False flag in the making

For several days we have heard of a planned false flag by Zelensky. This sad comic of a person actually thinks destroying a children’s hospital or kindergarten with appropriate pictures blamed on Russia will give sympathy and more money for his cause. Yes, desperate people do stupid things. While innocent children die for a lack of mortality. No country that allows this behavior can exist for long.

Perhaps, you know that the US is reducing military supplies to Ukraine. Or that Britain will not agree to give permission to Ukraine for deep strikes into Russia with the US doing the same. Have some parties actually realized that when Russian diplomats and families are removed from America there is a reason and it is not a holiday. The Russians are not bluffing. For days it has been known, perhaps not publicly that Russian subs are on both sides of the US and England is surrounded by on 3 sides with targets locked on waiting for the strike signal. This is not video game but reality. And thoughts or a response will cause nukes to fly.

In Ukraine cities like Vuhledar are encircled and Ukrainsk has fallen while Ukrainians have been defeated at Toretsk and front lines are crumbling. While Kursk is a death trap for those soldiers there who do not surrender.

Meanwhile Zelensky plots how to stay in power even though a legal case is moving forward to remove him. Dictatorships rarely end well and this one will not be different. In the end many Ukrainians will curse him and his enablers for what happened to the country. It is doubtful the current regime will last long and times are dangerously because desperate people are not rational and that is true of Neocons who want war.

In America, the big problem is China and the dollars flooding back in from Asia. China is the real enemy and has been engaged in everything from bribery to actual theft where needed. And not much different in Canada. Perhaps a global crisis of intent that takes advantage of Western countries and the lack of accountability in all walks of life.

You will be hearing about this, this fall.

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

END

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, September 9-16, 2024

Tito Jackson (The Jackson 5); TV travel journo Valarie D’Elia; hoopster Mitchell Wiggins; ballerina Michaela DePrince (29); novelist Tina McElroy; Honduran singer Moisés Canelo (in New York); & more

Mark Crispin MillerSep 18

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UNITED STATES

Note: 37 nurses and 27 infants “died suddenly” and will soon be posted in another Substack post.

Tito Jackson of the Jackson 5 dead at 70

September 16, 2024

Celebrities Visit SiriusXM - September 11, 2019

Tito Jackson, original member of the Jackson 5, is dead at the age of 70. Steve Manning, a former Jackson family manager, confirmed the news to Entertainment Tonight on September 15. A cause of death has not been determined, but Manning believes he suffered a heart attack while driving from Orlando to New Mexico. In the summer of 2024, Tito played shows with his brothers, Jackie and Marlon, in Scotland, California and England. On September 10, the Jacksons performed at the Circus Krone in Munich, where they also visited a memorial dedicated to their famous brother, Michael.

Link

If you like “News from Underground” (or hate it, but get something out of it), please read this post.

Beloved Travel Channel star dead at 64 after battle with rare disease

September 12, 2024

A beloved travel journalist who traversed 103 countries across seven continents during her decades-long career has tragically died aged 64. Valarie D’Elia, who worked with NY1 and the Travel Channel, lost her 18-month battle with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS) on Tuesday. The condition is degenerative and impacts the brain and spinal cord. It has no cure.

Link

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Mitchell Wiggins, former NBA player and father of Canadian Andrew Wiggins, has died at the age of 64

September 14, 2024

The Houston Rockets, one of Mitchell Wiggins’ former teams, announced his death on Friday. Wiggins played 389 NBA games over six seasons with the Rockets, Chicago Bulls and Philadelphia 76ers. His best season was with the Rockets in 1989-90, when he averaged 15.5 points and 4.3 rebounds per game on 48.8 percent field goal shooting. After his NBA career ended in 1991-92, Wiggins went on to have a successful career overseas in Greece, where he earned multiple All-Star nominations.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Trailblazing ballerina Michaela DePrince dies suddenly at age 29

September 14, 2024

Trailblazing ballerina Michaela DePrince has died suddenly aged 29

Trailblazing ballerina Michaela Mabinty DePrince has died suddenly aged 29, her spokesperson revealed Friday. DePrince’s family confirmed the news of her passing on social media, writing in a Friday post they were making the announcement with “profound sadness.” DePrince’s death was “sudden,” but other details surrounding the circumstances of her death were not immediately available, according to the post. DePrince won waves of fans by sharing her story as an orphan who escaped violence in Sierra Leone to become a world-renowned ballerina.

Link

Acclaimed novelist Tina McElroy Ansa dies at 74

September 11, 2024

St. Simons Island, Ga – On Wednesday, September 11, 2024, the acclaimed novelist Tina McElroy Ansa passed away unexpectedly. Wanda Lloyd, a close friend of the writer and filmmaker, confirmed Tina’s death in a Facebook post. She was 74 years old. At the time of writing, the cause of death has not been determined.

Link

Moisés Canelo, the “Romantic Voice” of Honduras, dies

September 13, 2024

The Honduran singer-songwriter, Moisés Canelo, died this Friday, September 13, 2024, in New York City, where he was living. His death is presumed to have been due to a complication from a kidney ailment. Moisés Canelo, known the “Romantic Voice” of Honduras, is considered by romantic musicians of his time to be a on par with José José.

No age reported.

Link

A record producer “died suddenly”:

Roli Mosimann, 68

September 16, 2024

We are sorry to hear of the passing of one of the great sound manipulators, Roli Mosimann at age 68. The brilliant sound recorder and producer had a CV that was a groundbreaking guide to sculpting industrial music and beyond. Originally a drummer, he was also an electronic musician and ultimately a producer, who first received to attention for his work with Swans, but was best known for his collaborations with JG Thirlwell on his Wiseblood project. JG posted on his Facebook page: “It’s with a heavy heart that I have to announce the passing of Roli Mosimann. Roli died at 2:15 am this morning in hospital in Wroclaw, Poland, from lung cancer…(Roli) was a questing musician and a sonic sculptor. He was also a great guy, and, as his first wife Alexa said, “lover of women, wine and song.”

Link

He worked with A-list actors, directors, then died and was left unclaimed in Bucks County

September 11, 2024

Karl Conrad Knief, 59, of Langhorne, passed away unexpectedly on November 10, 2023. He had no known immediate family and his remains are unclaimed in the Bucks County Coroner's Office and a longtime friend is hoping to claim them.

Karl Knief was a Midwestern-born boy who moved to New York to pursue his creative dreams, then Hollywood where he made them a reality. He worked on movie sets with Oscar-winning and nominated directors and A-list celebrities, then at the top talent agencies in Los Angeles for more than two decades. In 2019 he left the City of Angels for the City of Brotherly Love at the urging of a longtime close friend there. Shortly before Thanksgiving last year, Knief died suddenly at age 59. Petro urged him to move to Philadelphia, where she lived, to start a new chapter of his life. Shortly after he arrived the COVID pandemic hit bringing everyday life for most Americans to a near halt. Knief moved into an apartment in Middletown [PA] around March 2023, Petro said. Three weeks after she last spoke to Knief, Petro got a call from a mutual friend that he was in the hospital with a flu-like illness. The next call she learned he died.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Indy veteran Micah Taylor dead at 47

September 12, 2024

Michael Sharrer, who wrestled primarily as Micah Taylor, has died at age 47. He was a mainstay of the independent scene, and spent time in WWE-developmental territories Ohio Valley Wrestling and Deep South Wrestling. Sharrer served in the US Marines before he breaking into the wrestling business in 2003. The news of his death, announced on September 12, 2024, shook the wrestling world, though the actual circumstances of his death are not known at this time.

Link

FireStar Pro Wrestling announces the passing of Tyrone ‘Pumbah’ Arnold

September 12, 2024

FireStar Pro Wrestling has announced the passing of an essential production team member and extended FSPW family, Tyrone Arnold, at age 42. Tyrone joined the team in 2019, and in their post announcing his passing, FireStar Pro Wrestling commended him for helping to elevate many wrestling events in North Carolina.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Karl Moline, CrossGen and Buffy the Vampire Slayer artist, has passed away

September 12, 2024

Karl Moline’s CrossGen studiomate, Ron Marz, announced Moline’s passing on Twitter (X) Thursday morning. Moline was a fan-favorite artist known for his work at CrossGen Comics, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, Rogue, and many more comics. A cause of death is not known at this time, nor exactly when Moline passed away. The news of Moline’s death comes at an awful time for comic book fans, with Astonishing X-Men and Planetary artist John Cassaday also passing away earlier in the week.

No age or cause of death reported.

Link

Dogged Atlanta reporter Art Harris covered nation’s big stories

September 11, 2024

Investigative reporter Art Harris worked over the years at The Atlanta Journal, The Washington Post and CNN covering major stories. He won numerous awards. for his work. CONTRIBUTED

Art Harris, a dogged Atlanta-based investigative reporter who worked at The Atlanta Constitution, The Washington Post and CNN, died last Friday. He was 76. His wife Carol Martin, in an interview with The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, said he died unexpectedly and was unsure of the cause of death.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Four children “died suddenly”:

Khari Jefferson (Sissy), 6

September 12, 2024

Houston, Texas – Khari was a beautiful, strong, vibrant, and loving child who never met a stranger. Her smile alone would brighten up any room she was in. Khari was very intelligent and more advanced than your average 6 year old. She put up a great fight against cancer but God called her home on August 28, 2024. Her memories and name will live on forever.

Link

Davien Taylor Roberts, 9

September 12, 2024

Brockton, Massachusetts – Davien Taylor Roberts, 9, of Brockton, MA, unexpectedly passed away from an asthma attack on September 3, 2024. He was going into 4th grade at the Mary Baker School in Brockton. Davien was a special kid, very inquisitive.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Ravenna community rallying to support family after death of 10-year-old boy

September 11, 2024

Ravenna, Ohio — Isaiah Monville wore jersey number 13 when he played in the Ravenna Ravens Youth Football League. His family said the league is now planning to retire that number after the unexpected death of the 10-year-old boy over the weekend. That number is serving as a tribute to Isaiah on social media sites, on car windows, on stickers for the helmets of friends and teammates, and on tattoos that his mother, Connie Horner, recently had inked on her body. Horner said Isaiah had medical issues, but those were managed, and he seemed to be doing well. However, he experienced some bleeding concerns on Friday. Horner said doctors determined he had a tear in one of his bowels, and he died at Akron Children’s Hospital on Saturday. “We’re not entirely sure when it happened,” she said.

Link

GoFundMe created for elementary student who died suddenly

September 16, 2024

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

MAD BAD, Hilary Clinton is MAD bad, wants to put all Trump supporters in jail based on what you ask! Democrats today double & triple down in invectives on Trump so they are trying to win the election

via an assassin bullet and not the ballot box; today KJP told Doocey (Press Secretary) told a reporter he was dangerous to even ask a question! These bitches, democrats, RINOs etc. will try to KILL 45

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 17

READ IN APP

still…Clinton is an old insane bag, to call for Trump supporters to be jailed because of their views and statements? These bitches are threatened by the freedoms Trump represents, people must be able to keep our nation, defend our flag, keep illegal rapists and killers out…the only way they will defeat Trump is to kill him, and they are going to try a 3rd time…he is at risk of death…I warn…

also, if he loses, they will move to jail his kids and even kill them…where we are today in America via the democrats, radical freaks, RINOs, even some republican traitors is a watershed moment…if they do take down Trump, I warn, we will have a devastating civil war…we do not want it, but if they kill him, we will go to civil war!

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

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and if Trump dies, you do not want to be an illegal rapist or killer or pedo inside USA…pack fast.

You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

SLAY NEWS

Bombshell Study Warns of ‘Self-Assembling Entities’ in Bodies of Covid-Vaccinated Leading researchers in South Korea and Japan have issued a red alert after their bombshell new study discovered “worm-like” “self-assembling entities” that form “synthetic” nanostructures in the bodies of people who received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”READ MORE

Florida Health Department Warns Public Not to Take Covid ‘Boosters’Florida’s Department of Health has just issued a bulletin warning members of the public not to take Covid mRNA “booster” shots.READ MORE

Obama Takes to TikTok to Push Voter Registration Among Young Americans Barack Obama will make a series of appearances in TikTok videos to push for young Americans to register to vote.READ MORE

Vance Slams Democrats & Corporate Media over Second Trump Assassination Attempt Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance has slammed the Democrats and their allies in the corporate media for pushing extreme rhetoric that has led to the second assassination attempt against President Donald Trump in as many months.READ MORE

New York City Democrat Mayor’s Legal Chief Resigns amid Federal Corruption Investigations New York City Mayor Eric Adams is facing increased scrutiny as his administration is under federal investigations for alleged corruption.READ MORE

Michigan Supreme Court Upholds Democrat Rules Restricting Poll Watchers The Michigan Supreme Court has upheld Democrat Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson’s new restrictions on poll watchers.READ MORE

Ohio Sheriff Vows to Send Illegal Aliens to Homes with Kamala Harris Signs An Ohio sheriff has announced that he is gathering the addresses of all homes in his county that have Kamala Harris campaign signs on display.READ MORE

‘Weird’ Anti-Trump Gunman Ryan Routh ‘Kept a Horse in the House,’ Neighbor Reveals Information is continuing to emerge about the would-be assassin who attempted to murder President Donald Trump in Florida on Sunday.READ MORE

Hillary Clinton Slams Trump as a ‘Danger to Our Country and World’ after 2nd Assassination Attempt Twice-failed Democrat presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has appeared on national television and slammed President Donald Trump as a “danger to our country and the world.”READ MORE

Trump: Would-Be Assassin ‘Acted on’ Kamala Harris’ ‘Rhetoric’ – Democrats ‘Are the Real Threat’President Donald Trump has warned that the violent rhetoric of Kamala Harris and the Democrats “is causing me to be shot at.” Trump said that extreme narratives about him being promoted by Harris, the Democrat presidential nominee, and President Joe Biden led to a second assassination attempt on his life on Sunday. Authorities arrested 58-year-old Ryan Routh for attempting to …READ MORE

Ex-Obama Official Panics, Warns Second Assassination Attempt Will Help Trump’s Campaign A former Barack Obama administration official has warned the Democrats that Sunday’s second failed assassination attempt against President Donald Trump could backfire.READ MORE

Sen Hawley Releases ‘Highly Damaging’ Secret Service Whistleblower Claims on First Trump Assassination Attempt Just one day after a second attempt on President Donald Trump’s life, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) has released Secret Service whistleblower allegations regarding the first failed assassination in July.READ MORE

Major Texas Chemical Plant Explodes, Massive Flames Surge into Sky A major chemical plant in Texas has exploded, with aerial video footage showing massive flames from a burning pipeline surging up into the sky.READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

NEWS ADDICTS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Paging The Fed

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 10:25 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

2750 Beeps

The market is waiting for the Fed to cut rates today for the first time in years: the economist Bloomberg survey expects 25bps; markets are split between pricing 25bps and 50bps, with the most speculation in Fed Funds futures since they began trading in 1988; some joke the Fed should cut 37.5bps to please everyone; others are shifting ”50-50” to mean “fifty then fifty”, i.e., rates can keep being slashed as in crashes and recessions; and Democratic senators want 75bps.

There were hopes US retail sales data could make the case for 25 or 50bps, but they didn’t. The headline was stronger than consensus, but the ex-autos figure was weaker. That said, industrial production soared 0.8% m-o-m vs. 0.2% expected. Yet it would be ironic if that series, a sector neither the Fed nor financial markets have any interest in, derails interest rates falling as fast as they had hoped. Likewise, the Atlanta Fed GDP survey put its current Q3 estimate at 3.0% with only two weeks left of data before end-quarter, when trend US growth is 2%: either that Fed series is unconnected to the real economy, or the FOMC are, or markets are, or all three. Moreover, concerns grow that east coast US ports might see a crippling strike next month. We already had a report of Asia-East Coast routes commanding a $1,500 premium, working against a general softening of freight rates of late.

Meanwhile, in the Middle East we just got 2,750 beeps (Saudi media reporting as many as 4,000). A killer call triggered the simultaneous explosion of thousands of pagers held by members of Iran-backed Lebanese terrorist militia Hezbollah, choking hospitals with men losing fingers, eyes, and other key anatomy. Even the Iranian ambassador was reported to have been lightly injured – though why did he have a Hezbollah pager? The Middle East is on a knife-edge. However, that obvious analysis aside, there are several key facts to draw from this episode, which rightly takes the main headline in the Financial Times today online ahead of the Fed.

First, both the Lebanese government and Hezbollah have blamed Israel for the attack, the latter promising revenge – and not by email.

Second, the US took its now-usual step of denying any involvement. I’m sure that’s correct as nowadays US allies don’t tell it what they want to do ahead of time, given they never want to do anything: it’s far easier to ask for forgiveness than permission. To a Machiavellian, saying ‘non mea culpa’ does not make the US appear an honest broker, but reduces its perceived power – silence was the better option. That this has to be said partly explains why geopolitical tensions are so high, which matters to markets given the FT saying national security is reshaping economic policy.

Third, Israel hasn’t claimed responsibility, but has dealt Hezbollah a hammer blow. The militia had recently switched to low-tech pagers to avoid interceptions of its comms and GPS locations. This has backfired badly, badly injuring thousands of its men, and now leaving it unable to communicate as rumors swirl of a potential Israeli ground incursion ahead.

Fourth, is how this ‘Mission Impossible’ was achieved. Some say the encrypted pagers ordered from Taiwan –bringing in another geopolitical angle– were interdicted, Mossad injecting a compound into their lithium batteries to allow them to be hacked remotely to then overheat. However, lithium burns and videos show detonations with no flame, suggesting the replacement of some parts with plastic explosives, a far larger supply-chain feat.

This matters for more than the Middle East or pagers. Many of us worry about phone addiction. Others worry about our phones being listened to. Some are pushing for children not to be allowed phones in schools. From now on, we’ll have to be concerned about our devices exploding in our hands or pockets. This will seriously change how some serious business is done.

The weaponisation of common devices within a supply chain opens a Pandora’s box. The US is already trying to remove Chinese technology like Huawei’s 5G as a security threat, and that EVs record all we do is well-known by many. Yet how long will it now be until more banal made-in-China consumer products are also seen as being potentially too risky? If I can make those connections, others paid to worry about such things, and politicians who make money in doing so, will be front-running further national-security onshoring in the near future.

Paging the Fed: that deep China supply-chain deflation helping you consider a 50bps move today may not last long. Things could really overheat at that point. If you think we’ve seen market volatility in the past few years (and weeks on USD/JPY!), imagine normalising 75bps Fed hikes against rising inflation, then 50bps cuts in a fair economy… and then getting that call structurally wrong, and having to U-turn again.

Ironically, as the Fed is considering cutting bigly while some US data looks good, the ECB is playing its hand more cautiously even as the German ZEW survey collapsed like VW’s self-confidence. Relatedly, as the Financial Times editorial says, “Draghi is trying to save Europe from itself”, EU Commission President von der Leyen just named her new team to do that saving. The key thing to note is countries who favour dirigiste market intervention (i.e., France, Spain, and Italy) claimed prime posts like anti-trust, state aid, EU spending, and industrial policy. The outgoing free-market competition commissioner powerlessly warned of allowing pan-EU champions to emerge, as this would also be a “Pandora’s box” for Europe. Just a less explosive one than what we’ve seen in the Middle East; except to free-market purists who don’t understand that violent reality is what much of the world outside their happy bubble looks like.

In Australia, the government and RBA are still at daggers drawn, as a former senior Reserve Bank manager says reform of its board is needed to avoid groupthink: yes, but all the establishment and most of the population daily echo the Aussie TV advert that screamed, “I JUST WANNA SELL RUGS!” (Where for “rugs!”, read “rate cuts!”; or for “sell” read “buy”, and for “rugs!” read “houses!”) The RBA is also going to play with a wholesale banking CBDC for the next three years to try to streamline settlements processes. Nothing for retail or the government yet. But if you want to imagine something truly explosive on the device in your pocket, how about a central-bank controlled digital currency it can print or delete at will as part of an it’s-not-central-planning-when-we-do-it economy. Luckily, one of the last to try and plan the economy will be Australia, we can assume – unless it involves housing.

So, back to waiting for the Fed. Or the next geopolitical bang.

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

Levels of crude hit rock bottom in Cushing OK

(zerohedge)

WTI Holds Gains As Cushing ‘Tank Bottoms’ Loom After API Reported Draw

Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024 – 05:20 PM

Oil prices closed higher today, with WTI rallying strongly up to test $72 (after falling to the lowest in more than three years last week as the Chinese economy showed more signs of slowing).

“Speculation that China needs to go big on stimulus to support the economy have helped trigger buying from hedge funds, who last week held the most bearish view on oil in recorded history,” Saxo Bank noted.

For now, The Fed’s rate decision and inventory data will define the short-term trend.

API

Crude +1.96MM (Exp. -0.5MM)
Cushing -1.4MM
Gasoline +2.34MM
Distillates +2.3MM

Crude inventories built for a second week in a row (and product stocks also increased) last week. However, stocks at the crucial Cushing Hub drew down for the sixth week in a row (10th of the last 11 weeks)…

Source: Bloomberg

The ongoing drawdowns at Cushing mean ‘tank bottoms’ are in sight once again…

Source: Bloomberg

WTI dipped very modestly after the API data (despite the Cushing decline)…

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, expectations of an interest-rate cut from the Fed coming Wednesday (potentially stimulating a slowing U.S. economy) is also supporting oil.

“For the coming day or two the Fed move will be the dominant driving force … Oil fundamentals will indisputably take over the role of price-setting, for the immediate future, however, the cost of money in the world’s biggest economy will remain in focus,” PVM Oil Associates noted.

The market is pricing in expectations of a 50bps cut with a 70% probability.

end

Biden’s Department Of Energy Short On Cash To Refill SPR At Low Prices

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 06:30 AM

By Charles Kennedy of OilPrice.com

The price of the U.S. WTI crude oil has finally stayed in the low $70s per barrel for a sustainable period of time, allowing the Biden Administration to ramp up the refill of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which it had said would do at prices of $79 a barrel or below.

WTI Crude is now at $70 per barrel as of Tuesday morning, after spending days below that threshold.

But the Energy Department has just $841 million left to buy crude for the SPR, Bloomberg reported on Tuesday, citing an estimate by ClearView Energy Partners, a consulting firm. That money would be enough to buy only around 12 million barrels of crude at today’s prices, per Bloomberg’s calculations.

This would be a drop in the ocean, considering that the SPR is only just over half full compared to its capacity of 700 million barrels.

DOE’s Office of Petroleum Reserves has recently announced a call for bids to supply up to 1.5 million barrels of oil to the Bayou Choctaw site in January 2025. An additional solicitation will follow on August 12, 2024, for another 2 million barrels destined for the Bryan Mound site, also for delivery in January 2025.

The replenishment strategy comes in the wake of the SPR’s critical role in stabilizing the market during global supply disruptions, notably the release of more than 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR starting in 2021, as gasoline prices remained high. The Department of Treasury claims that these releases, along with coordinated international efforts, helped reduce gasoline prices by up to 40 cents per gallon in 2022.

The SPR currently houses 375 million barrels of crude—a figure that is 263 million barrels less than oil in the SPR at the beginning of President Joe Biden’s term in office. The SPR, capable of storing as many as 714 million barrels of crude oil, is kept in underground salt caverns at four sites in Texas and Louisiana and was designed to protect the economy and American livelihoods during oil shortages.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

VENEZUELA

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1126 UP 0.0004

USA/ YEN 141.72 DOWN 0.291 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE FINISHED

GBP/USA 1.3211 UP 0045

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3586 DOWN 0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 8 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

Hang Seng CLOSED

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.04%

// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.04%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 176.95POINTS OR 0.46%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2577.40

silver:$30.61

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 100.48 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.772% UP 5 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.834% UP 0 AND 9/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.997 UP 4 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.568 UP 8 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1875 UP 4 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1117 DOWN .0014 OR 14 basis points

USA/Japan: 141.66 UP 0.864 OR YEN IS DOWN 86 BASIS PTS//ROUND II OF ENDING YEN CARRY TRADE

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.8160 UP 1 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0016 OR 16 BASIS pts to 1.3603

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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0792(ON SHORE)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.0823)

TURKISH LIRA: 34.10 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.834

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from TUESDAY at 3.686% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield 3.997 UP 4 in basis points /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.690 UP 9 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2572.50

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.48

Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 56.18PTS OR 0,.68%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 42,52 OR 0.57%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 14.59 PTS OR 0.08%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 122,40OR 1.06%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 16.70OR 0.16%

WTI Oil price 70,13 12EST/

Brent Oil: 72.9312:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 93.63ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 13/100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1875 UP 0 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.8805 UP 11 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 2.927 UP 2 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.741 UP 2

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1115 DOWN 0.0004 OR 4 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3209 UP 0.0043 OR 43 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.8500 UP 9 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.833

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 142,29 UP 282EN DOWN 28 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3608UP 0.0015CDN dollar DOWN 15BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.13

Brent OIL: 72.93

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 3.720

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS PTS to 4.023%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 3.619

CDN 10 YR RATE 2.948UP 3BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.750 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 100.63 UP 7 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.08 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 93.63UP 2 AND 13/100 roubles

GOLD 2,558,50 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.05 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 103,08PTS OR 0.25%

NASDAQ DOWN 87.90 PTS OR 0.44%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18,23UP 0.63 PTS OR 3,52%

GLD: $235,51DOWN 1,83OR 0.27%

SLV/ $27.24 DOWN ,22 OR 2,58%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Fed/Powell Unleash Chaos Across Markets With ‘Not A Crisis At All’ 50bps Rate-Cut

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 04:00 PM

50bps cut… uber-dovish Dots… Powell pushed back… stocks end red, dollar and yields end higher.

“The US economy is in a good place and our decision today is designed to keep it there,” said Fed Chair Pay Powell during the press conference.

So a crisis-level 50bps rate-cut at record highs for stocks and home prices, just two months ahead of the election is warranted because the “economy is in a good place.”

The next time the Fed meets, voters will have already cast their vote for the next president.

Powell on incorporating political factors into Fed decisions:

“We just don’t do that.”

But Kamala liked it:

“The Fed’s rate decision is welcome news for Americans.”

And none other than Democratic Congresswoman Maxine Waters of California applauded the Fed’s rate cut in a statement:

“I am pleased that the Fed has not only remained independent, but shown the importance of remaining independent as it followed the data and not politics.”

Republican Senator Kevin Cramer of North Dakota criticized the Fed’s move in a post on social media:

“The Federal Reserve claims political independence. They could have waited to move rates until after the election to confirm it. 25 basis points would’ve received minor grumblings, but the claim rings hollow with 50 basis points.”

It’s a good job The Fed is “strongly independent”!!!

ladies and gentlemen, BRRRRANDON:
"Before the year is out, there'll be a rate cut" pic.twitter.com/nZ5qjNEMQ8
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 10, 2024

The kneejerk reaction across all markets reversed considerably during Powell’s presser as he poured a little cold water on expectations.

“The committee is not in a rush,” said Powell, and with that stocks started to puke lower as he added that “we will move as fast or as slow as we think is appropriate.”

Powell stole the jam out of the equity market’s donut when he tilted hawkish by noting that “no one should look at the 50bps cut and say this is a new pace.”

But realistically, the DOTs said it all, with members desperately lurching lower in rate-cut expectations.

In June, 4 FOMC members expected no rate-cuts in 2024, 7 members expected 1 rate-cut in 2024, 8 members expected 2 rate-cuts.
In September, only 2 FOMC members had priced in 2 rate-cuts by year-end, 7 more saw 3 rate-cuts, 8 more saw 4 cuts by the end of 2024 and one lone uber-dove (Goolsbee?) expected 5 rate-cuts in 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

So much can change in 3 months when the government is fooling most of the people with fake data all the time

US Jobs Revised Down By 818,000 In Election Year Shocker, Second Worst Revision In US History https://t.co/IZ6b2StAMB
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 21, 2024

And Fed rate expectations for 2024 tumbled (and 2025 dropped too – though was already pricing in a super dovish Fed)…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, Powell pissed in the punchbowl by stating that we’re probably not going back to the era when trillions of dollars worth of sovereign bonds were trading negatively and says the neutral rate is probably much higher than it used to be – but doesn’t know where that level is.

So let’s survey the damage…

Stocks kneejerked higher with Small Caps exploding almost 2.5% at their highs on the FOMC statement and SEP. The S&P 500 also briefly hit a new record high. However, once Powell started speaking, all the majors reverted lower (back into the red)…

The footprint of Small Caps pump and dump was very evident in the ‘most shorted’ basket today…

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar Index puked bigly on the FOMC statement but rallied all the way back as Powell spoke…

Source: Bloomberg

USDJPY may help clarify the flip-flop as FX markets start pricing in the next US inflation surge as the yen spiked on the FOMC statement then puked hard on Powell’s prevarications…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold exploded up to a record high $2600 before sliding back as Powell spoke…

Source: Bloomberg

We encourage readers to use our exclusive partners JM Bullion for all your precious metals purchasing needs.

Bonds and stocks remain in world’s of their own still since the last FOMC meeting in July – stocks slightly higher (no recession, soft landing), bond yields down dramatically (recession, hard landing)…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all tumbled on the FOMC statement and pushed back higher as Powell spoke. The 2Y remained lower (unchanged on the day) while the long-end rose 7bps on the day!

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s10s) crashed into ‘inversion’ briefly before bear-steepening back up to recent highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin kneejerked up above $61,000 before sliding back to unchanged on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices declined on the day, whipsawed around by the DOE dats showing a big draw at Cushing and then by Powell and his pals going full dove-tard!

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, will Powell’s legacy be that of Arthur Burns?

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, let there be no doubt that if inflation re-accelerates from here, you can bet on the fact that Trump will get the blame completely.

MORNING TRADING

AFTERNOON TRADING///FOMC

‘Apolitical’ Fed Slashes Rates By 50bps With Stocks & Home-Prices At Record Highs

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 02:00 PM

Since the last FOMC meeting on July 31st, a lot has happened – growth scares, Jackson Hole, weak data, strong data, and endless FedSpeak – but most notably, the market has practically convinced itself that it needs 50bps of cuts but a recession is not imminent. Bonds and Gold have dramatically outperformed while oil has been a big loser (along with the dollar)…

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks and bonds are in worlds of their own since the last FOMC meeting with the former unchanged (no recession) while the latter has seen yields puke 40-50bps (recession)…

Source: Bloomberg

US Macro data has surprised to the upside dramatically since the last FOMC (perfect time to cut rates?)

Source: Bloomberg

And both growth and inflation data has surprised to the upside (screw the inflation data, we’re cutting!!)

Source: Bloomberg

Overall rate-cut expectations have soared since the last FOMC meeting (adding 60bps of cuts to expectations to the end of 2025), with a heavy waiting to 2024 cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, before we get to the actual decision, we note that the odds of a 50bps cut today had drifted lower intraday (to 57% from 75%)…

Source: Bloomberg

Today will be not just about the size of the cut, but most focus will be on the messaging for what happens next, especially given the new DOTS, which will likely adjust dramatically more dovish (to catch down to the market’s expectation)….

Source: Bloomberg

At the last refresh of the SEP (dot-plot), 4 FOMC members expected no rate-cuts in 2024, 7 members expected 1 rate-cut in 2024, 8 members expected 2 rate-cuts.

So what did The Fed do?

Wow! The economy is so great, it needs an crisis-level rate cut 2 months before the election

*FED LOWERS BENCHMARK RATE 50 BPS TO 4.75%-5.0% TARGET RANGE
*FED SAYS GOV. BOWMAN DISSENTED IN FAVOR OF 25-BPS RATE CUT
*FED: STRONGLY COMMITTED TO SUPPORTING MAX EMPLOYMENT, 2% INF.
*FED SAYS RISKS TO EMPLOYMENT, INFLATION GOALS IN BALANCE

The Fed Dots tumbled to meet market expectations, with 2024’s median dot slashed from 5.125% to 4.375%, 2025 cut from 4.125% to 3.375%, and 2026 from 3.125% to 2.875%…

Close up on 2024 and 2025 – The Fed members literally abandoned all of June’s expectations…

But amid that massive easing adjustment in the dots, The Fed did not change its 2025 GDP forecast at all, it sees 2025 unemployment up just a fraction, from 4.2% to 4.4% and 2025 core PCE dip from 2.3% to 2.2%…

… and that justifies the FOMC predicting an additional 3 rates cuts from June to September…

Read the full FOMC Statement red-line below:

II USA DATA

Housing Starts & Permits Surged In August As Rate-Cut Euphoria Re-Emerged

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 08:40 AM

After an unexpectedly large decline in July, August’s data for Housing Starts and Building Permits rebounded dramatically, well above expectations. Starts rose 9.6% MoM (vs +6.5% exp and -6.8% prior) while Permits jumped 4.9% MoM (vs +1.0% exp and -3.3% prior). Both prints are the highest since February…

Source: Bloomberg

The SAAR for starts and permits obviously rose but remains near COVID lockdown lows still…

Source: Bloomberg

Single-Family Starts and Multi-Family Permits dominated the increases…

Source: Bloomberg

This should not be a total surprise as forward-looking permits have tracked (with a lag) rate-cut expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

What happens if The Fed disappoints?

III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

Now we have a small town in Alabama silenced for questioning the sudden flood of Haitian migrants into

their community. Below you will see first hand videos of migrants BBQing cats.

(zerohedge)

Small Town Alabama Residents Silenced For Questioning Sudden Flood Of Haitian Migrants

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 09:25 AM

This week U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released its latest statistics showing at least 530,000 migrants flew into the U.S. and were paroled into the country as part of the Biden administration’s controversial mass parole program for those migrating from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela (the CHNV program). The program essentially expedites the transfer of migrants from these countries with minimal vetting under refugee laws and allows them to stay in the US for at least two years with a work visa.

The CBP also notes that at least 800,000 more migrants have applied for the program at US ports of entry, meaning they are likely already in the country. The numbers are not counted as illegal border crossings. The CBP has warned that once the two-year work period ends they do not have the manpower to track down those migrants that refuse to leave voluntarily.

Concerns over this immigration agenda are being raised after presidential candidate Donald Trump highlighted the flood of 20,000 Haitians into Springfield, Ohio (a city of only 60,000 people) during his recent debate with Kamala Harris. Reports are mounting and suggest this issue is not limited to Ohio; small towns across the US are being inundated with third-world immigrants. Native-born residents feel powerless as their communities are trampled by decisions made at the federal level.

One such town is Sylacauga in Alabama with a tiny population of 12,236 people southeast of Birmingham. Reports indicate at least 2000 Haitian migrants have been dumped into the area with little or no communication with the locals.

Sylacauga city council member Laura Barlow Heath says she’s worried Sylacauga will become the next Springfield. She criticized her colleagues after they abruptly shut down a council meeting when residents raised concerns over the overwhelming influx of migrants and worries ‘civil unrest’ may be the result.

Citizens continued to approach council members after the meeting, and many of the exchanges became heated.

Mayor Jim Heigl confirms that the immigrants were brought in “legally” for employment. He said they have been “model citizens,” and there are no issues with the current number of immigrants living in the city. However, this is the same rhetoric from the leadership in Springfield, Ohio, and reports from native resident conflict dramatically with the claims made by local politicians. They say crime is on the rise, and of course, pets are disappearing.

Evidence is rising that animal abuse is indeed an issue. After the media claimed the accusations have been “debunked”, police reports have been exposed and confirmed recordings of migrants in Ohio cooking cats have surfaced. A video of the Springfield City Manager Ryan Heck from March of this year show him discussing migrants doing “horrible things to domesticated animals” while council members argued that the events are not confirmed.

NEW: African migrants in Dayton, Ohio caught grilling cats.

The footage was obtained by @realchrisrufo who interviewed the man who took the video.

“It was some Africans that stay right next door. This African dude next door had the damn cat on the grill”https://t.co/YmmV79TKOn
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) September 14, 2024

Now we have the Springfield City Manager acknowledging on video that they’ve heard of complaints of domestic animals being eaten back in March.

We also have a call report showing this.

Why would they lie about there not being complaints?

Unbelievable. pic.twitter.com/ejktkvxIRo
— Dustin Grage (@GrageDustin) September 17, 2024

SHOCKING report from Rebel News’ @TheMenzoid, who visited Springfield, Ohio, reveals local residents sharing their stories of Haitian migrants killing pets and causing chaos in their city.

“They did kill my daughter's cat.”

“My neighbor’s neighbor went over to his house crying… pic.twitter.com/5qBOsklaIe
— I Meme Therefore I Am 🇺🇸 (@ImMeme0) September 13, 2024

Democrats assert that these communities have no say in the process of immigration and that however many foreigners arrive and where they come from is none of their business. But maybe it should be their business. Laura Heath of Sylacauga gets to the root of the problem:

“When is enough enough? When do they stop coming in? How many are there going to be? There’s no answers. We have none. The unknown and uncertainty is scary. We have 12,236 people in our community, and we just do not have the adequate resources to handle an influx of migrants. It’s going to take away from resources that are already struggling here.”

It should be noted that many of these migrants have been suspiciously relocated to deep red conservative districts and, as we recently witnessed in Oregon, some states are “accidentally” giving migrants voter status when they get their state IDs and drivers licenses.

Employers are incentivized to hire migrants because of lower wages, but they can also get tax subsidies for every refugee under a lesser known provision of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit (WOTC). In other words, companies are getting extra-cheap labor the more they add refugees to the payroll. This is why we often see corporate CEOs in places like Springfield, OH avidly defending mass immigration and denying any problems exist.

While the pet eating question has drawn national scrutiny to the issue, an even greater problem is the affordable housing shortage. With tens of millions of migrants entering the US in the past three years, demand has exploded and rent prices have skyrocketed. The gaslighting of the public continues, but the truth is slowly and surely rising to the surface.

end

as always a must read

(Brandon Smith)

Smoke And Mirrors: What Happens After Biden’s Economic Manipulations Disappear?

Tuesday, Sep 17, 2024 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

There is a popular school of thought that believes most economic stability is purely psychological; that the health of the economy relies on the population NOT knowing the true state of things. In other words, “ignorance is bliss.” I partially agree with the premise but only under certain conditions. If an economy is built on lies then yes, the exposure of those lies would certainly put that system at risk. My argument is, if an economy is built on lies it’s not really worth saving.

The US public in particular is now struggling with the slow realization that our financial and monetary structures are not secure. Many of us in the alternative media have been warning about this for decades. I warned about the inevitability of a stagflation crisis for many years and was criticized as a “doom monger,” at least until 2021 when the crisis became undeniable. But that’s what happens when you live in an economy of lies and you start talking about reality – Some people will see you as a threat.

Even today with everything that’s happening there are still blind muppets and disinformation shills out there that assure us “all is well”. And, usually they’ll cite manipulated government stats as evidence to support their faulty position.

The Biden Administration has proven to be one of the worst culprits when it comes to data misrepresentation and manipulation. To be sure, Biden has had plenty of help with his “Bidenomics” agenda and he wouldn’t be able to rig the numbers without aid from the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the corporate media, etc. Most presidents get help from these institutions when promoting a sick economy as a healthy economy. Some presidents do not…

With that fact in mind, I’ve been wondering lately what will happen when Biden exits the White House in January 2025? What happens to the numbers after that? Will there be a statistical reset? Will the real data be exposed all at once; an avalanche of reality crashing down on the delusional system?

I’m still not convinced that any outcome is beyond dismissal for elections in November. If someone was to ask me what I predict, I would have to say Trump will be president again. From all the evidence I’ve seen the Harris campaign is an astroturf movement with a limited voter base. She’s obviously not very bright and I don’t think the theatrical “joy” strategy is convincing very many people of her competency. Her economic policies (including price controls) are full bore communist and would be devastating to any form of US recovery. Her fiscal plan will be even worse than Bidenomics has been.

But hey, I was certain Trump was getting a second term in 2020 and I was wrong. Who could have known Biden was going to get that unprecedented mail-in voter boost in the middle of the night after everyone went to bed? Truly, he is the most popular presidential candidate of all time. Why they dropped him for Kamala I’ll never fathom…

But seriously, the point is, we have come to a crossroads in our election process where anything is possible (whether real or engineered). I suspect that if Trump enters office once again there will be a multitude of changes to our economic data and they will happen quickly. Some of the rigging is already being exposed, just not on a level where the majority of the populace is aware of it.

Some examples of this rigging include:

Biden’s steady sale of US strategic oil reserves in order to drive down energy and gas prices, thereby artificially reducing CPI (official monthly inflation numbers). By June of this year Biden had sold off at least 50% of the nation’s emergency oil supply just to keep CPI down a few points. Keep in mind, bringing down the CPI does nothing to cut the real inflation that has already accumulated in necessities (30%-50% higher prices depending on the product or service).

Then there’s the manipulation of BLS unemployment data to show millions of new jobs that don’t actually exist. After it was announced that Biden was no longer the Democratic candidate, suddenly the US Payroll has been revised down by over 818,000, likely with more revisions to come. Meaning, Bidenomics was being fluffed with fake job creation.

An even greater concern is the fact that all new jobs created for the past several years have been going to illegal aliens, not legal citizens. In fact, since October of 2019 native-born US workers have lost over 1.4 million jobs. Over the same period, migrants illegally residing in the US have gained 3 million jobs. The new narrative among leftists is that this is a good thing; they claim that the US needs illegal immigration and open borders in order to support the jobs market and “bring down inflation.”

I’m doubtful that the jobs boost to illegals is real, either. More likely the migrant jobs data is rigged because it’s much harder to track and confirm. But these people don’t seem to understand how inflation works – Greater population means higher resource demand, and that helps drive up prices (as we’ve seen in housing). It doesn’t bring prices down, nor does it reduce the existing money supply.

It should also be noted that full time jobs numbers have plunged while part time low-wage jobs have increased. These are the kinds of issues no one in the Biden Admin is talking about.

Finally, rising GDP is often cited as a key indicator of a vibrant economy, but what the “experts” rarely mention is that GDP is rigged by the inclusion of government spending. The more federal and state governments tax, borrow and spend, the higher GDP goes. Currently, government spending accounts for at least 36% of GDP (officially) in the US.

It makes it look like America is more successful than ever but this is based on the government taking more cash from the public, printing more money and going into greater debt, then throwing that cash away with wild abandon in order to prop up the numbers.

Goldman Sachs recently made a statement that under a Harris regime GDP would go up and under Trump GDP would take a big hit. They are right, in a way, but they don’t explain the real reason why this is the case.

If Trump follows through on his fiscal responsibility policies (Elon Musk has been tapped to head up investigations into government efficiency), then OF COURSE we’ll see a drop in GDP. It would mean government spending will go down and the rigging of GDP will end. With Harris, government spending will skyrocket and so the GDP bubble will continue to grow. In fact, Harris will be incentivized to increase government spending in order to hide greater deflation in GDP.

Trump’s arrival in the Oval Office will result in a hailstorm of bad economic data, and most of this will be due to the sudden end of statistical manipulations that have been in place for the last four years. We are currently in the midst of a tone-shift in which recessionary forces are pressuring markets more than inflation. But don’t be fooled…

As soon as the Federal Reserve cuts rates inflation will spike again, and if Trump is in office a CPI jump will be even more pronounced. Biden’s oil reserve dumps will be over, no longer anchoring CPI. We will continue to see inflation in necessities with deflation in other areas including jobs and GDP. That’s what happens during a stagflation crisis.

With Harris the same problems will occur, they just won’t be reported and the stats will not reflect the truth. With Trump, the stats will be more transparent and the media will howl about how conservatives are destroying the economy. The game plan is obvious.

* * *

Our economy is on a decades-long path to total collapse. And no election can completely stop what is coming! Which is why protecting your 401(k) or IRA is more critical than ever. With a physical gold IRA, you get an easy and tax-deferred way to safeguard your wealth with tangible assets. To learn more, click here to get your FREE info kit on Gold IRAs from Birch Gold Group.

end

Explosives found near where Trump will rally tonight.

This is escalating to no end

(zerohedge)

Explosives Reported Near Trump Rally On Long Island As Police Hunt For Suspect

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 10:45 AM

Police in Nassau County, New York are investigating a possible security breach after a reported discovery of explosives near the site of former President Donald Trump’s rally on Long Island, just hours before his scheduled speech Wednesday evening.

Sources within the Nassau County Police Department allegedly told One America News Network (OANN) journalist James Lalino that officers conducting a routine K9 sweep discovered an explosive device in a vehicle parked near the rally venue. The report comes just three days after a would-be assassin was arrested at Trump’s Palm Beach golf club.

According to the Daily Mail, the driver of the car with explosives ran into the woods. According to Lalino’s report on X, the suspect bolted from the car, leaving law enforcement scrambling to locate him.

Sources in the Nassau County Police Department just told me that "the perimeter was breached and a blue barrel was removed" from the area surrounding tonight's Trump rally site.

Source said "During K9, doing their checks, they found an explosive device in one of the vehicles and…
— James Lalino (@JamesLalino) September 18, 2024

“No one saw if he had anything on him, they just saw him take off running,” one source reportedly told Lalino. “A lot of cars are now parking, they’re lining up on Hempstead Turnpike, just parking on the grass. Even over at Eisenhower Park, they’re just parking over there.”

The bomb scare comes as Trump continues to face heightened security threats. He has largely shifted to indoor venues since an attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, when a would-be attacker was apprehended before getting close to the former president.

Trump has largely moved to indoor events since the first attempt on his life in Butler, Pennsylvania on July 13.

He was shot in the right ear by would-be assassin Thomas Matthew Crooks as shots rang out at his mid-summer rally.

Two months later, a gunman pointed an AK-47 at the former president while he was playing at the Trump International Golf Course in West Palm Beach on Sunday just after 1pm.

The Republican nominee was rushed to safety as Secret Service agents opened fire on the suspect who had a GoPro camera and backpack, along with his rife. -Daily Mail

If confirmed, the presence of explosives at Wednesday’s event would mark a chilling escalation in the threats surrounding Trump’s public appearances as he continues to campaign for the 2024 Republican nomination. Law enforcement officials have not yet released an official statement, but the incident has put the rally site on high alert.

twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1836414038609399897?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1836414038609399

BREAKING: Police find “explosives” in a car near Donald Trump’s rally site on Long Island where he is speaking this evening according to

@JamesLalino

Lalino reports that the rally site’s “perimeter was breached and a blue barrel was removed.” The Nassau County Police Department reportedly said that during a sweep, they “found an explosive device in one of the vehicles.” The driver of the car ran into the woods. “No one saw if he had anything on him, they just saw him take off running. A lot of cars are now parking, they’re lining up on Hempstead Turnpike, just parking on the grass. Even over at Eisenhower Park, they’re just parking over there,” the source said according to Lalino The incident unfolded as thousands of people lined up to attend the event.

Nassau County police are reportedly working to secure the area while the search for the suspect continues.

Developing…

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

END

TUCKER CARLSON….

KING REPORT

The King Report September 18, 2024 Issue 7329

Independent View of the News

US August Retail Sales 0.1% m/m, -0.2% expected; July to 1.1% revised from 1.0%
    Sales ex-Autos 0.1%, 0.2% expected; July 0.4%; Sales ex-Autos & Gas 0.2%, 0.3% exp.; July 04%

US August Industrial Production 0.8% m/m, 0.2% expected; July -0.9% revised from -0.6%
    Mfg. Production 0.9%, 0.2% expected; July -0.7% revised from -0.6%
    Capacity Utilization 78.0%, 77.9% expected; July 77.4% revised from 77.8%

September NAHB Housing Market Index 41 as expected; July 39

As we opined, Fangs rebounded sharply on Tuesday after Apple induced their declines on Monday.

ESZs traded mostly negative from the Nikkei opening until they broke higher after the 2 ET China close. ESZs relentlessly rallied until they hit 5721.25 at 5:50 ET. After going inert for 46 minutes, ESZs broke lower. After hitting 5711.50 at 7:35 ET, ESZs rallied to 5726.00 at 7:56 ET. ESZs moved sideways until they retreated after 9:48 ET. After hitting 5711.25 at 9:52 ET, ESZs jumped to a daily high of 5737.00 at 10:44 ET. ESZs then commenced a tumble that took ESZs to a daily low of 5679.25 at 12:50 ET.

Was the midday tumble due to proprietary knowledge that the Fed will cut rates only 25bps? At the time, the CME’s FedWatch (Fed fund futures) showed a 65% chance of a 50bp cut.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

PS – For over two years, money market traders GREATLY misforecast Fed Funds by being too dovish.

ESZs then rebounded on the afternoon rally and manipulation for the VIX Fix 14:15 ET settlement for September options. ESZs hit 5700.75 at 13:27 ET and then reversed sharply. ESZs sank to a new low of 5677.75 at 13:45 ET. It was time for the manipulation to rig the 14:15 ET VIX Fix September settlement.

ESZs jumped 5702.00 at 14:12 ET. ESZs then did a slow rollover and then broke lower at 14:45 ET. This is precisely what we warned about in Tuesday’s missive. ESZs hit 5683.25 at 14:48 ET. The last-hour rally produced a 12-handle gain that ended at 15:16 ET. ESZs then retreated 11 handles. After a modest rally, ESZs traded sideways until the late manipulation pushed them to 5702.75 at 15:59 ET.

Positive aspects of previous session
Fangs rebounded sharply on the usual buying for the expected expiry manipulation.
The strong August US Retail Sales boosted the dollar; the yen/$ got above 142.
The DJIA and S&P 500 Index hit all-time highs.  The DJIA rallied sharply.

Negative aspects of previous session
Gasoline, oil, and industrial commodities rallied sharply even though the dollar rebounded.
The NY Fang+ Index lost almost its entire gain by the close.
ESZs tumbled after an early rally; USZs declined 16/32 (at NYSE close)

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
How high will the yen/$ go before intervention appears?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5639.81
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5670.81; 5614.05

Hundreds of Hezbollah members wounded in Lebanon when pagers explode, security source says
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/

WSJ: The affected pagers were from a new shipment that Hezbollah received in recent days. A senior Hezbollah terrorist speculated that malware may have caused the devices to heat up and explode. There are close to 1,500 wounded or dead terrorists.

@Osint613: Some are reporting that the Hezbollah operatives all got a message at the same time. This would explain why we are seeing many head injuries.

@michaelh992: Sky News Arabia says the Mossad used PETN (an explosive material) inside the batteries of the pagers to detonate them.

@hahussain: Unconfirmed reports indicate that Israel has not only caused pagers that Hezbollah fighters carried explode, but the attack also blew up Hezbollah’s wired and wireless communication network. According to my colleague @sfrantzman, in his book The October 7 War, this was exactly what Hamas did on October 7: Targeted Israeli military comms in the south, leaving the IDF blind and blunting and delaying its response for hours. (Reportedly Iran ambassador to Lebanon was wounded.)

@Osint613: Hussein al-Khalil, Nasrallah’s political advisor, stated this evening that Hezbollah will respond to the incident and that Israel should expect “anything” from Lebanon following the “crimes” it has committed against the Lebanese people…

NYT: The pagers, which Hezbollah had ordered from Gold Apollo in Taiwan, had been tampered with before they reached Lebanon, according to some of the officials. Most were the company’s AP924 model, though three other Gold Apollo models were also included in the shipment…
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/17/world/israel-hamas-war-news

Claudia Sahm’s Recession Denial Theory Flunks a Simple Data Test
Claudia Sahm claims to have invented a recession indicator created by Ed McKelvey. Now she says the indicator is wrong… What is the McKelvey Recession Indicator?
    Take the current value of the 3-month unemployment rate average, subtract the 12-month low, and if the difference is 0.30 percentage point or more, then a recession has started. Edward McKelvey, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, created the indicator.
    Claudia Sahm, a former Federal Reserve and White House Economist, modified the indicator from 0.3 to 0.5. The rule triggered in August, but Sahm is in denial… (Because it reflects poorly on Biden/Harris?)
https://mishtalk.com/economics/claudia-sahms-recession-denial-theory-flunks-a-simple-data-test/

Sahm notes that the Unemployment Rate rises when unemployment rises or when more people enter the labor force. Mish retorts: “In 7 of 10 recessions, the labor force was higher in the third month of recession than the start of it… don’t claim the labor market is too strong for a recession to have started.”

Today – The known universe expects the Fed to cut rates by 25bps. The usual suspects want the Fed to cut 50bps, which would make the Fed look political or frightened about the US economy.

Stocks tend to rally into midday on Fed Day. ESZs can become very volatile between when the FOMC Communique is released, and the Fed Chair press conference. If the Fed only cuts 25bps, stocks are likely to decline sharply. If this transpires, traders will look for the entity that has relentlessly rescued ESZs (and stocks) over the past several weeks.

If the Fed cuts 50bps, ESUs and stocks should initially jump but reverse soon thereafter on profit taking and possibly recession concerns. Powell has been dovish in his press conference for the past few years, especially if the FOMC Communique was NOT dovish. With the Fed commencing a cut cycle, will Powell stay dovish, or will he be hawkish to keep stocks from bubbling up further?

Today is settlement for VIX September options. Ergo, be alert for chicanery into the 14:15 ET VIX Fix and then a reversal.

Expected Economic: The Fed is expected to hike rates 25bps, FOMC Release at 14:00 ET; Powell Press Conference 14:30 ET; Aug Housing Starts 1.318m, Permits 1.41m

NQZs are +27.50; ESZs are +4.00; the Yen/$ is 141.81; and USZs are -1/32 at 20:20 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5513; 100-day MA: 5417; 150-day MA: 5318; 200-day MA: 5183
DJIA 50-day MA: 40,467; 100-day MA: 39,724; 150-day MA: 39,415; 200-day MA: 38,946
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index (5634.58 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5274.15 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5464.92 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5618.87 triggers a sell signal

@DocNetyoutube: Yesterday, ABC made a statement regarding the whistleblower affidavit. The only thing ABC said was that they did not give the questions or the topics to the Harris campaign. Well, nobody accused ABC of doing that. ABC has been accused of the following:
1.) Giving the Harris campaign sample questions, similar to the actual questions that would be used for the debate.
2.) Agreeing to give Harris a smaller podium and other arrangements to minimize the size differential between Harris and Trump.
3.) Fact Checking would be done for Donald Trump and NOT Kamala Harris
4.) Harris campaign gave questions to ABC that were not to be included in the debate. Including questions regarding her time as DA in SF and her time as California Attorney General.
     Out of all these accusations, the fact checking of Trump has been admitted to. The podium and split screen appearance to keep the height differential have already been proven, ABC did NOT deny communications with the Harris campaign without the Trump campaign being present and they will never deny that because they cannot. According to the whistleblower, ABC executives made numerous phone calls with the Harris campaign without including the Trump campaign on the call. Everything the whistleblower has submitted has been proven except for sample questions. There will be another tweet later today announcing action to be taken against ABC and the affiliates of ABC.
https://x.com/DocNetyoutube/status/1835987377728167939

@BillAckman: @ABC and @RobertIger should directly address the specific accusations of the whistleblower, and Iger/Disney should launch a full investigation. Not surprisingly, there has been no denial from the two ABC moderators. Just silence.

Kamala Harris held an interview with the National Association of Black Journalists.
https://x.com/joma_gc/status/1836121343622087162

@TrumpWarRoom: Kamala Harris once again repeats her very rehearsed “I grew up a middle class kid” story when asked about what she will do to improve the economy.
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1836115212828839949

@TrumpWarRoom: @JDVance: “You’ll say, ‘Vice President Harris, what is your plan to lower the inflation caused by your policies?’ And she’ll say, ‘well, I grew up in a middle class family.’
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1836156327355387988

@TrumpWarRoom: Reporter: “What do you tell people who wake up each morning wondering ‘How am I going to get by financially?'”  Timothy Walz: Kamala Harris and I know something about it being middle class folks…”  https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1836164326970802497

@skolldaddy: Nick Sirianni at the podium, when asked about the 3rd down pass to Saquon Barkley: “I come from a middle class family….” (Parody) https://x.com/skolldaddy/status/1835886483066028275

@TrumpWarRoom” Tampon Tim: “Growing up in that middle class family, she’s laid out a plan for an opportunity economy.” You’re going to hear this about a million times before Election Day. Remember it next time you’re checking out at the grocery store.  https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1836177651628646504

@julie_kelly2: Kudos to NABJ for being the first to ask Kamala Harris about her proximity to DNC pipe bombs on Jan 6. She interrupted to AGAIN misrepresent the facts of her movements. She rejected reporter’s accurate claim her vehicle went past the “bomb”—which happened at 11:25am—and instead said she was in the building. FBI said device was planted on Jan 5. Video and IG report demonstrate her detail came within 20 feet of bomb.  WHY IS SHE LYING?
CBS Reporter in Nevada: “We Could Only Find One Harris Supporter, And We Left No Stone Unturned” – “What was really incredible is in every single restaurant, of the people willing to talk to us, we could only find one Harris supporter in every restaurant — and we left no stone unturned. I approached every single person, except for this one guy… But people are really excited about Trump,”… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2024/09/17/cbs_reporter_in_nevada_we_could_only_find_one_harris_supporter_and_we_left_no_stone_unturned.html

JD Vance says difference between right and left is ‘no one has tried to kill Kamala Harris,’ calls on Dems to tone down rhetoric https://trib.al/538MCmc

Hillary Clinton suspiciously surfaced on Monday to inveigh against ‘propaganda,’ label Trump ‘a danger to our country and the world,’ and risibly bashed the media for not being tougher on Trump. Just a few weeks ago, Trump stated that in his first term, he let Hillary get away with numerous felonies; but that will change if he is re-elected.

Hillary: “I don’t understand why it is so difficult for the press to have a consistent narrative as to how dangerous Trump is… His demagoguery, his danger to our country and the world…”
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1835862504469049618

@aaronjmate: Hillary Clinton calls for criminal charges and civil penalties against Americans “engaged” in spreading “propaganda.” To make her argument against free speech, she invokes the Russiagate scam that itself was the product of her campaign’s own propaganda. Speaking of which, the case that she invokes here — Mueller charging some Russians for social media activity — led to Mueller dropping the case after the Russian company showed up to fight the case in court.
https://x.com/aaronjmate/status/1835886288995586318

@ggreenwald: If Hillary’s insanely repressive measure were implemented — people spreading disinformation could be imprisoned — the first two to share a prison cell should be her and Maddow, who drowned the country in the Steele Dossier, Afla Bank servers and other demented debunked lies.

Hillary was not the only Trump hater to spew incendiary venom at Trump. ‘They’ continued despite another assassination attempt because there have been NO consequences for such behavior and speech.

@PhilipWegmann: Pressed by Fox News on President Biden and Vice President Harris’ rhetoric about Trump representing a “threat” to democracy, White House @PressSec calls question from Peter Doocy “dangerous.”  https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1836128893855551540

Karine Jean-Pierre says it’s OK to call Trump a ‘threat’ to democracy despite murder plots: ‘Jan. 6! Jan. 6! Jan. 6!’ https://trib.al/7e2DLGy

@FoxNews: White House continues to call Trump ‘threat’ to democracy despite multiple attempts on former president’s life

@paulsperry_: “It is not enough to simply beat Trump. He must be destroyed thoroughly. His kind must not rise again.“— Tweet by Obama adviser David Plouffe (@davidplouffe), June 13, 2016
    @JasonMillerinDC: Plouffe is now running the Harris campaign.

@TomBevanRCP: You will not find a more handy-dandy chart on the internet. (Shows DJT polling in swing states vs. Dem candidates on Sept. 16 in 2016, 2020, and 2024)  https://t.co/2ZrtOvfTyB

@charliekirk11: New data shows that compared to this same point in 2020, Democrats are DOWN 303,016 mail-in requests in Pennsylvania. Said another way, Republicans are UP 247,000 mail-in requests. Trump fell just 80,000 ballots short in 2020 in PA. This is a VERY positive sign.
https://x.com/Maloney/status/1836031226051756472

Suspected Trump assassin flagged by U.S. during return from Ukraine, but Homeland refused probe – “HSI was contacted and refused the case,” the interview memo (CBP) stated…
https://justthenews.com/government/security/trump-assassination-suspect-flagged-border-protection-agents-homeland-security

@ChadPergram: Dem CT Sen Blumenthal on USSS & answers about efforts to kill Trump: I am reaching a point of total outrage, because the response from [unclear] has been totally lacking. In fact, I think it’s tantamount to stonewalling in many respects. the Department of Homeland Security has to be more forthcoming, not only to me, but to the American people, and it has to do it quickly, or it will fuel the conspiracy theories that are so dangerous to our democracy as well as undermining its own credibility..if necessary, I’ll certainly support a subpoena. It takes very little drafting to do a subpoena here, and even less time.

@bennyjohnson: “THERE IS A MOLE IN THE SECRET SERVICE…” Congressman and fmr Navy SEAL Eli Crane concludes evidence suggests possible Secret Service mole after second attempt on Trump: “Watch the watchers. There is a very real possibility that there is a mole in the Secret Service.“
https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1836078821608497526

NYT under fire for this: Suspect in Apparent Trump Assassination Plot Crusaded for Many Causes
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/16/us/trump-suspect-golf-course-routh.html
    @JackPosobiec: At the same time the media is attacking Trump and Vance for talking about migrant crime, the NY Times is doing profiles of the Trump assassin calling him a ‘crusader.’

@Ultrafrog17: P Diddy indictment unveiled. He was drugging and filming the victims and then subsequently using the content to keep them in line. And people tell us that blackmail rings in Hollywood and the music industry are a conspiracy theory…  https://x.com/Ultrafrog17/status/1836074992523424194

Pics and videos of Diddy with Hillary, Barack, and Kamala are being scrubbed from social media.

GREG HUNTER

Deep State Knows It Cannot Cheat Kamala In’ – Martin Armstrong Fears Washington’s Plan To “Trap Trump Into War”

Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 04:20 PM

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong predicted less than a month ago that there would be another assassination attempt on Donald Trump’s life, and the Deep State was going to do everything possible to start a war with Russia.

He was right on both counts. All the chaos, debate fraud and push for World War III comes down to the Deep State knows it cannot cheat enough to put Kamala Harris into the White House in November.

Forget the phony polls where they all say Kamala is running neck and neck with Trump.

Armstrong says his “Socrates” computer program shows Kamala’s real approval rating is around 10%, and all his computer models say Kamala is going to lose big in November no matter how much they cheat. Armstrong says, “Just about everybody in politics looks at Socrates now because its track record on politics has been phenomenal for 30 years. They know what is going on.”

So, is the Biden Administration panicking with this second clumsy attempt to assassinate Trump while playing golf? Is our own government trying to kill Trump because they know they cannot win?

Armstrong says, “I believe so. . . . Look, these people have been warmongers. . . . This is their power.”

” They have gotten so close to destroying Russia, which is their end goal here. Handing long-range missiles to Ukraine, this is like hiring somebody to kill your spouse and then saying, well, he shot, I didn’t. . . .

Trump and RFK Jr. are against war…My concern here is they need to create war before January, if not even before the election. I think this is what all this stuff is about with the long-range missiles to shoot into Russia. If Trump does get in, they have to trap him into war.

The whole nonsense about Russia Gate and all the rest was because Trump is against war…

The neocons called Trump Putin’s puppet because Trump will not engage in war against Russia. This is what this is all about.”

Will the demonic Deep State try yet another assassination of Trump?

Armstrong says, “I would not put it past them. Maybe next time they use Monkey Pox or Bird Flu.”

” Look, Trump represents a real threat to their power. If Trump gets in, the neocons are out. Who wrote that recent article for the Washington Post that said Trump would be a “dictator”?

It was Victoria Nuland’s husband. Why? Because Victoria Nuland was thrown out of Trump’s Administration.

She has been in every administration except Trump’s. . . . This is the neocons against the American people. The computer has been showing that this may be the very last election we have. Just look at the chaos that has been going on at this stage.”

Armstrong is afraid that Putin may be overthrown in Russia because his response has been too timid against NATO.

Armstrong says, “Putin knows the neocons want war, and he won’t take the bait.” Armstrong is also afraid that if Putin does get booted out of office, then the people who replace him will be far worse, and brutal war would follow.

Armstrong says the evil people in Washington will hide in bunkers when the atomic weapons drop on the rest of America. He thinks a big problem coming will be shortages in everything –including food. If there is bigger war, the economy will plunge, and interest rates will skyrocket. Greatest Depression here we come.

In closing, Armstrong says, “The Deep State is scared to death of Trump winning in November because he now knows how to play the game. . . . and Secretary of State Tony Blinken is running the country” because we know Joe Biden is not.

There is much more in the 50-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong as he gives his analysis on trying to kill Trump and starting a world war before the 2024 Election for 9.17.24.

* * *

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