SEPT 19/GOLD CLOSED UP $17.05 TO $2588,90 AS THE ASSAULT ON $2600 GOLD BEGINS IN EARNEST// SILVER CLOSED UP $0.85 TO $31.10/PLATINUM WAS DOWN $19.95 TO $953,20 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP $31,95 TO $1095,10//GOLD COMMENTARY TODAY FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//UPDATES ISRAEL VS HAMAS AND HEZBOLLAH//ISRAEL LAUNCHES ATTACK ON HEZBOLLAH//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY REPORTS.DR PAUL ALEXANDER. MARK CRISPIN MILLER//USA DATA EXISTING HOME SALES PLUMMET: JUST TOO EXPENSIVE FOR THE AVERAGE CITIZEN//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT..
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 2 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 5 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 6 6 905 C ADM 11
TOTAL: 18 18 MONTH TO DATE: 4,032
JPMorgan stopped 0/18
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 18 NOTICES FOR 1800 OZ or 0.0559 TONNES
total notices so far: 4032 contracts for 403,200 Oz (12.541 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 55 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 275,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 4,997 for 24.985 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $17,05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 872,23 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 872,23TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 85 CENTS AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV FROM THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 459.619 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 523 CONTRACTS TO 141,128 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.29 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1588 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ESPECIALLYDURING WEDNESDAY’S AFTERNOON ACCESS TRADING//. WE HAD ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL LOSS IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX HOURS AND AGAIN IN THE ACCESS TIME ZONE. WE HAD A HUGE 1065 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 505 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 1588 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 505 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1/2 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.29) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1588 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A STRONG 1065 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 255,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 25.220MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT ADVANCES TO 25.220 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN //HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 505CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 485 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT, ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13DAYS, total 13,422contracts: OR 67.110 MILLION OZ (1032 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 67.110 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 67.110 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 523 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:1065 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 22.765 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 255,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO 25.220 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1588 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD SIZED 505 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING AND ACCESS TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITHTHE LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (505) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .
WE HAD 55 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 275,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 642 OI CONTRACTS TO 538,269 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 350 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (642 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $5.95 IN PRICE /WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAYS HUGE 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.752 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $5.95 GAIN N PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. ALTHOUGH WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE TEMPORARY LOSS IN ACCESS TRADING/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WE HAD A GOOD SIZED GAIN OF 4389 OI CONTRACTS (13.65 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WE ARE BEGINNING TO SIT SHIVA FOR OUR CROOKED SHORTERS
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 3747 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 538,269
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4389 CONTRACTS WITH 642 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 3747 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4389 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 622 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3747 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 642 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4389 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT 12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 12.752 TONNES.
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED, HUGE T,A,S, LIQUIDATION DURING THE ACCESS COMEX TIME ZONE
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 622 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 68,440 CONTRACTS OF 6,844,000 OZ OR 212.877 TONNES IN 13TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5264 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 212.877 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 212.877 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6,00% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 212.877 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1008 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,613 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1065 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1065 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1065 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1008 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1065 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2073 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.365 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.29 LOSS IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
/ SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18,74 PTS OR .89 %
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 353.14 PTS OR 2,00 %
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 775.16 PTS OR 2.00%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.63%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0659 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0709 Oil UP TO 71.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.28Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 523 CONTRACTS TO 538,642 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.95 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3747). THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON WEDNSDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING AT MUCH LOWER PRICES. (AT 2:30 PM//ORCHESTRED RAID BY THE FED). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.THE RAID ORCHESTRED BY THE FED WILL NOT SHOW IN THURSDAY’S NUMBERS AS NUMBERS ARE OF 1:30 PM COMEX CLOSING. HOWEVER FRIDAY’S NUMBERS IS GOING TO BE A DILLY AS ANDREW AND HIS PHYSICAL FRIENDS WERE READY AND ANTICIPATED THE CROOKS SLAM. THEY BOUGHT HEAVY AND THEN TENDERED,
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 3747 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC 3747 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3747 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A GOOD SIZED TOTAL OF 4389 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3747 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 642 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALLISH GAIN IN PRICE OF $5.95/WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A SMALL SIZED 622 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND YESTERDAY’S SMACKDOWN/WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED (DURING POWELL’S PRESSER)
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (12.752 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 12.752 TONNES.
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $5.95/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A GOOD GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY. THURSDAY MORNING DURING THE LONDON PHYSICAL SESSION.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 14.74 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.885 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF A STRONG SIZED 2300 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO: 12.752 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 12.752 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $5.95
WE HAVE REMOVED 350 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4799 CONTRACTS OR 479,900 OZ (.14.74
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4032notices 403200oz 12.541 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits nil oz
withdrawals: 1
i) out of JPMorgan: 28,550.088 oz
888 kilobars
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 28,550.088oz
adjustments:0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 86 contracts having GAINED 7 contracts. We had 12 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 19 contracts or 1900 oz will stand at the comex as these boys seek metal on THIS side of the pond.
OCTOBER GAINED 222 CONTRACTS UP TO 41,726 CONTRACTS
NOVEMBER GAINED 94 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 420
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 428 CONTRACTS TO 436,837
We had 18 contracts filed for today representing 1800 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 18 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4032 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT 86 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (18x 100 oz per contract( equals 410,000 OZ OR 12.752 ONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (4032 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT (86 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz which equals 410,000 oz (12.752TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 12.752 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total pledged gold: 1,885,944.092 oz 58.660 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 16,934,,211.150 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,486,.611 .793 232.84tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,447,599.357OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,600,667oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 174,18tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 19 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE SEPT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
84,645,880 OZ
Delaware hsbc
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
4141.400 oz Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
55 CONTRACT(S) (275,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
47 contracts (0.235million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
4997 Contracts (24.985 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
we had one customer deposit:
i) Into Delaware 4141.400 oz
total customer deposits 4141.400 oz
WE had 2 withdrawals
from Delaware 4141,400 oz
from HSBC 80,500.480
total withdrawal 84,645,880 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/305.883million or 44.13%
adjustment:0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 74.897MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305,883million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 102 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 20 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 31 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 51 CONTRACTS OR 255,000 OZ
UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
THERE MUST BE ENOUGH SILVER OVER HERE.
OCTOBER SAW A GAIN OF 29 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1441 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 108
DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 428 CONTRACTS UP TO 123,435 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 55 for 275,000oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 89,256 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 4997x 5,000 oz = 24.985 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(102)and the number of notices served upon today 55 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month: 4997 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (102)x number of notices served upon today minus (55)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 25.220 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 25.220 million oz.
There are 76.168million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOURINTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $9.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES
AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 872.23TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.959 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $0.23//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 45,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.880 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 459.619 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
We’re still trying to process the latest assassination attempt on Donald Trump, which took place on Sunday in West Palm Beach. But while that’s important to dissect as the election gets closer, it’s important to consider a development I’ve been warning about for over two years.
President Trump has long been an opponent of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) or as I call them Biden Bucks. (Now that Biden is essentially out of the picture, maybe I should rename them Kamala Bucks.)
I called them “Biden Bucks” because I wanted Biden (and his partner Kamala) to take full credit for what I consider to be crimes against American citizens. More on that shortly. For now, let’s focus on Trump.
At a New Hampshire campaign rally earlier this year, Donald Trump reiterated what he’s been saying for months: CBDCs are dangerous and he would never allow one if elected.
For too long, the average American has been squeezed by the big banks and financial elites. It’s time we take a stand — together. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom, and I will stop it from coming to America. Such a currency would give a federal government absolute control over your money. They could take your money, and you wouldn’t even know it was gone.
In fact, Trump recently pledged to ban CBDCs, promote the creation of a national crypto reserve and guarantee that the government will not sell crypto obtained through law enforcement seizures.
I’ve said it before, but I’ll say it again: “Welcome aboard, Mr. President.” Again, I’ve been sounding the alarm about Biden Bucks for over two years. I’ve been warning about Joe Biden’s plan to control your money and take away your privacy rights completely.
A Threat to Your Freedom
President Trump is right. Biden Bucks are a dangerous threat to freedom. They’re a threat to our constitutional liberties and give the government total control of our private financial information.
A change in leadership is probably our last hope in stopping this madness from continuing.
Maybe you’re a new reader who’s not familiar with Biden Bucks, or maybe you’re an existing reader who hasn’t thought of them for a while. To catch you up, here are the basics: They would replace physical cash with new electronic currencies.
These Biden Bucks would have the full backing of the U.S. Federal Reserve. To be clear, they won’t just be a complement to cash. They will entirely, or very nearly entirely, REPLACE the cash (“fiat”) dollar we have now.
In other words, the dollar will be strictly digital. This digital dollar would be the sole, mandatory currency of the United States. What does this mean for you?
It would put your money under direct government control as President Trump has said. You could use it only at the government’s discretion.
We are already seeing how many retailers are no longer accepting cash across America. What happens when physical cash is eliminated from any payment transactions?
Declined!!!
Imagine this. To further advance the Biden/Harris Green New Scam, what if the Dems and their deep state enablers decide that gasoline needs to be rationed?
Your Biden/Kamala Bucks could be rendered useless at the gas pump once you’ve purchased a certain amount of gasoline in a week. You want gas, but all you get is a one-word message: Declined.
How’s that for control? That’s just one example. Biden Bucks would create new ways for the government to control how much you can buy of an item or even restrict purchases. They would keep score of every financial decision you make.
In a world of Biden Bucks, the government will even know your physical whereabouts at the point of purchase. It’s a short step from there to putting you under FBI investigation if you vote for the wrong candidate or give donations to the wrong political party.
If any of this sounds extreme, fantastical or otherwise far-fetched, I promise you it’s not. It’s happening right now. And given all the abuses of power the government’s engaged in over the past few years, why should you be surprised that Biden/Kamala Bucks wouldn’t invite even more abuse?
Kamala Would Be Even Worse
I don’t want to exaggerate, but the U.S. is moving closer and closer to an authoritarian-style government. We’re not there yet, but things are trending in that direction. And if you thought it was bad under Biden, it’ll be worse under a possible Kamala Harris presidency.
Biden was basically a puppet of top Democratic insiders, mostly holdovers from the Obama administration.
He never had any real core beliefs, he just did what he was told to do. He just wanted to be president.
Harris is different. She’s a true believer in the progressive causes the Biden administration put forward. You’d never know that if you listened to her running for president (she’s trying to position herself as a centrist), but you just have to look at her record.
As a senator, Harris had the most liberal record, even further left than Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. Pertaining to Biden Bucks specifically, she pushed unsuccessfully in 2020 for a 400% funding increase for the U.S. Digital Service, an agency that did early work on payment technology, setting the stage for a central bank digital currency.
So Kamala is all in on Biden Bucks and the threat to your money and freedoms. With Biden Bucks, a Harris administration and the Federal Reserve would become both money printer and central bank, destroying any checks and balances to their power over Americans’ financial holdings.
You CAN Fight Back
But we can fight back against Biden/Kamala Bucks by adopting a variety of alternative currencies including cash (while it lasts), gold coins, silver coins and commodity barter.
That’s one reason the government is trying to eliminate cash and kill crypto. It may come down to gold and silver. I urge you to get yours while you still can.
The bottom line is the federal government is coming after our money and rights. Again, that’s not hyperbole or some conspiracy theory. We can already see it happening.
It’s up to us to preserve our freedoms as Americans and fight back. No one will save us but ourselves.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHE
Alasdair Macleod: The threat to commodity derivatives
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-09-19 14:30 Section: Daily Dispatches
2:30p ET Thursday, September 19, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
GoldMoney research director Alasdair Macleod today published in his proprietary letter on Substack an essay that brilliantly summarizes the longstanding Western gold price suppression policy and the dishonest philosophy behind it, with an emphasis on the use of financial derivatives against gold and all commodity prices, which another British economist, Peter Warburton, intuited back in 2001:
Once again Macleod kindly has given GATA permission to share his analysis with you below. It may make you want to consider subscribing to his letter, which comes out every few days. A seven-day free trial subscription is available. Rates are $10 per month or $120 per year.
For years, bulls of gold and silver have complained about how derivatives have been used to suppress their prices. Their dreams of the practice ending could be coming true.
If you think about it, there is a simple reason that derivatives for speculating or hedging gold is fatally flawed. It is because in nearly every nations’ common law, gold is money, and currencies are inferior credit which is where payment risk actually lies. That the western financial establishment is ignorant of this fact does not change the law.
There is good reason why this matters. Gold has lasted as legal money, and credit has been separately acknowledged to be deferred payment in money since Rome’s Twelve Tables defined them and their relationship in 449 BC. Since then, there have been many instances of governments denying these facts and promoting their currencies in the place of gold, which have always ended in their collapse.
In any price relationship involving a medium of exchange, there is an objective value and a subjective one. The objective value is always in the medium of exchange and the subjective value is in the goods or services being exchanged. Put another way, the buyer and seller will both value money or its substitute the same, but the buyer values the goods or services more highly than the seller: otherwise, the exchange won’t take place. But if gold is the money, where does that leave a fiat currency?
Clearly, if the currency is not a credible gold substitute, then it should bear the subjective value relative to gold. That it is not regarded this way is partly due to government anti-gold propaganda, but mainly due to accounting in the government’s currency for tax purposes. Furthermore, while a gold standard is always defined as a currency being exchangeable for a given weight of gold, for convenience it is referred to as so many currency units per gramme or ounce. This gives the erroneous impression that gold is being priced in the subordinate currency.
This is as may be, but in the knowledge that a fiat currency always fails while gold as money never does, the recognition of this reality will eventually kill off any derivatives in gold, and if the market in derivatives evolves without collapsing entirely, it should then refer to fiat currencies in terms of gold-grammes, or better still in a credible gold substitute instead if one exists.
That gold derivatives should not exist in the first place should be borne in mind in the context of this article.
The plan was to kill off gold as money
Following the inflationary seventies which almost destroyed the post-1971 dollar-based fiat currency system, there can be little doubt that the deep thinkers in the US Treasury thought long and hard as to how to drive inflation out of the economy while promoting the dollar to kill off gold as money. The answer they chose came in three distinct policies.
The first and most obvious was to reform the financial system so that the banks would wrest control of financial securities from the brokerage industry: this resulted in London’s big-bang, implemented by the Thatcher government in the mid-eighties at the US Treasury’s behest. A capital-starved securities industry would become turbocharged by bank finance, ensuring a perpetual bull market in financial asset values, including government debt, and ensuring everlasting demand for dollars.
The second was to reform statistical calculation for key economic indicators, such as consumer price inflation and jobless figures giving a measure of government control over them to create the illusion of currency stability. Not only was the indexation cost of pensions and welfare contained, but interest rates were thereby permitted to be lower than they would otherwise be. In fact, all economic statistics are produced by government agencies who control this information.
The third was to sanction and encourage derivative markets to expand and by doing so divert speculative demand from physical markets for gold. This was to prevent gold prices from being driven prices higher, threatening the status of the dollar as a medium of exchange. It was the basis of the massive expansion of gold trading on the LBMA, and the expansion of gold futures under the control of the large US banks which would occasionally act as conduits for the Exchange Stabilisation Fund.
In London, 44 million ounces were cleared daily in 1998 on the London Bullion Market, valued at approximately $13 billion at that time. Last May, it had dropped to a low of 16 million ounces, but at higher prices it was valued at $37 billion. It should be noted that outstanding forward commitments measured by their average duration in days are unrecorded multiples of daily settlement.
The falling settlement numbers in London forward ounces from 44 million to 16 million while the value of the settlement rose 2.8 times illustrates the problem paper markets now face. On Comex which has the same problem, this is demonstrated by the gross and net short position of the Swaps category, which is comprised mainly of bullion bank traders:
Between 2010—2018, the average gross short position was $15bn, compared with $75bn today. And the net position averaged $7bn, compared with $61bn currently.
This particularly matters because physical gold is now being drained out of London and New York directly or indirectly by a combination of central bank and wider Asian demand. While London faces a liquidity crisis of available gold bullion, Comex has a position which is proving impossible to contain, let alone drift into ever higher liabilities for bullion bank traders.
Hope that demand for physical gold will diminish allowing the bullion establishment to initiate a raid on bullish speculators is proving to be whistling into the wind, a wind blowing with increasing strength driven by a mixture of geopolitics and increasing credit risk facing the fiat dollar. In short, gold derivative markets are drifting onto the rocks of a crisis.
This matters, because gold is central to everything, more so than the illusory dollar. The reason is that gold as money in possession has no counterparty risk, while the fiat dollar with increasing counterparty risk is of uncertain future value. The central banks accumulating bullion, as well as other Asian entities and individuals, are being motivated to rid themselves of this dollar uncertainty, choosing not to encash them for other currencies which are ultimately tied to the dollar’s credibility.
The relationship between dollars and gold certainly has been a conundrum for many since the suspension of the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971. The western financial establishment has lost all compass as to which is money and which is credit, with most actors not even aware of gold’s central importance. To illustrate this importance the chart below shows average values for a range of industrial metals priced in dollars and gold, followed by a chart of oil similarly priced.
Priced in dollars, commodity and energy prices have risen multiple times and with great volatility, while they have been remarkably steady priced in gold. The point being made is that the approaching problems in paper gold contracts will almost certainly be transmitted into higher dollar prices for commodities generally as paper hedging in the form of derivatives diminishes. And the catalyst for an implosion of commodity and energy derivatives is gold.
Just as derivatives have suppressed gold and other commodity values from the 1980s onwards, their ending is set to unleash an explosion of physical replacement demand. The contraction of outstanding commodity derivatives will not be without accidents. Banks will face enormous write-offs, and doubtless some rescues will have to be arranged by the authorities. And there’s no guarantee that other derivative markets, such as interest rate swaps and forex markets will go unscathed because of the commonality of derivative counterparties.
The rise in values for gold and commodities generally is the same thing as a decline in the value of the dollar for the purpose of dealing in commodities. Foreign holders of dollars will be acutely aware of the consequences, dumping dollars increasingly to hoard commodities.
Looking at oil and base metal values, they are already relatively cheap priced in gold. Or put the other way, being moderately expensive gold appears to have begun to discount a wider currency crisis while these commodities have not yet. Their relative cheapness is probably attributable in part to the onset of recession in western economies being discounted in derivative markets, which as yet are unaffected by a bear squeeze on the establishment already evident in gold derivatives.
Forced by global markets, as opposed to those under the control of the US authorities, the wisdom of ancient Roman lawmakers in framing the origin of all their successor nations’ common law is being reaffirmed. The error being corrected today is the accumulation of fiat currency distortions of the last fifty-three years, which looks like it is coming to a financially violent end.
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/:live from the vault:
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:COFFEE
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6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18,74 PTS OR .89 %
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 353.14 PTS OR 2,00 %
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 775.16 PTS OR 2.00%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.63%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0659 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0709 Oil UP TO 71.48 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.28Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.0659
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0709
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 18.74 PTS OR .89%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED 353.14 PTS OR 2.00%
2. Nikkei closed 775.16 POINTS OR 2.13%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.71 EURO RISES TO 1.1158 UP 44 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.853 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 142.89…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.1875 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.553SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2,988
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.169
3j Gold at $2589.60 /Silver at: 31.20 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 75//100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.86
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 142.89 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.853% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8472 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9453 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.713 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.036 UP 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.577 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.02…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.905 UP 5 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.962 UP 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.749 DOWN 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rip To New All Time Highs After Fed Rate Cut, As Yields, Commodities Jump
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 08:44 AM
The Fed’s first (jumbo) rate cut since the depths of the covid crash resulted in mixed reaction in markets, with initial gains for stocks fizzling and ultimately tepid moves in Treasuries, corporate bonds and commodities. However, this reversal to the kneejerk reaction has also since reversed, and US stock futures are bouncing this morning, rising to new record highs, amid gains across Europe and in Asia, while gold is heading back toward a record high and copper prices hit the strongest level in two months to lead a broad rally in base metals in what appears to be a gradual awakening of the reflation trade. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 1.7%, and Nasdaq futures surged more than 2.1% as part of a global risk-on trade. Similar to past rate cuts in slowing macro environments, the Nasdaq and Russell are outperforming. Pre-mkt, Mag7 names are all higher by at least 1.6%, Semis are stronger too with NVDA +3.3%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index advanced as much as 1.4%, while Asian stocks were a sea of green, as a basket of Asian currencies notched up a 14-month high even as the Japanese yen plunged with traders once again eyeing yield differentials. The yield curve is bull steepening though 30Y is unchanged and USD is flat. Commodities are higher led by the Energy complex with precious metals outperforming base (Gold +1.3%, Silver +4.0%). The macro data today (Jobless Claims, Home Starts) will be ignored given the dovish press conference from Powell; expect multiple indices and sectors to make ATHs today.
In premarket trading, cryptocurrency-linked companies rally as Bitcoin climbs with US equity futures; Coinbase, Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital and CleanSpark all rose. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
DoorDash (DASH) gains 3.9% after BTIG upgraded the food-delivery company to buy from neutral, saying its checks signal continued strength, while touting “under-appreciated” longer term drivers.
Mobileye (MBLY) shares rise 7.6% after Intel said it does not currently have any plans to divest a majority interest in the company.
Steelcase (SCS) shares fall 6.9% after the maker of office furniture gave a third-quarter revenue forecast that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
In a move that Donald Trump called either political intervention or confirmation the US economy is doing much worse than indicated, the Fed cut rates by 50 basis points, a big move designed to preserve the strength of the US economy amid mounting risks to the labor market which has been flooded with illegal aliens. Jerome Powell said taking the step now would help to limit the chance of a full-blown downturn, while being careful to avoid committing to this as the new pace for rate reductions. Michelle Bowman dissented, voting for a 25-basis-point cut, the first time a Fed governor has done that since 2005.
Wednesday’s decision reinforced expectations that the US economy will escape a downturn. A survey of Bloomberg Terminal subscribers shows 75% expect the US to avoid a technical recession by the end of next year. At the same time, traders ramped up their bets on cuts to come from the Fed too, with more than 70 basis points of reductions seen for the rest of this year. That’s higher than the half-point of further easing implied by the Fed’s dot plot. A Citigroup trader called the jumbo cut, and so did JPMorgan, though the latter is less sure about what comes next. Mohamed El-Erian, meanwhile, saw the cut as dovish, while others on Wall Street suggested it indicated that the Fed regrets not cutting at its previous meeting.
“What we are seeing is the belief that the Fed has everything under control and they are going to engineer a soft landing and therefore risk assets are moving ahead strongly,” Jon Bell, a portfolio manager at Newton Investment Management, said on Bloomberg TV.
The Fed’s first reduction in more than four years was accompanied by projections indicating an additional 50 basis points of cuts across the remaining two policy meetings this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said launching the unwind of the central bank’s historic tightening campaign with a big move while the US economy is still strong would help limit the chances of a downturn.
“The Fed is embarking on what I see as a series of rate cuts,” said Stephen Jen, the chief executive at Eurizon SLJ Capital. The size of the initial move “won’t make a big difference as equities should soon stabilize, bond yields will likely drift lower for good reasons — like disinflation and not a hard landing. The dollar should continue to weaken against a broad range of currencies,” he said.
It wasn’t just the Fed making waves: the pound strengthened to the highest against the dollar since March 2022, surpassing $1.33, after the Bank of England kept rates on hold Thursday, and warned investors it won’t rush to ease policy. Government bonds retreated, money markets pared wagers on 2024 rate cuts and UK stocks trimmed an advance.
“We should be able to reduce rates gradually over time,” Governor Andrew Bailey said in a statement, stressing that such a path would depend on price pressures continuing to ease. “It’s vital that inflation stays low, so we need to be careful not to cut too fast or by too much.”
Norway’s krone led gains against the dollar after the central bank kept borrowing costs unchanged and signaled no intention to cut them before next year as it contends with inflation risks. The lira rose after the Turkey’s central bank held its main interest rate at 50%, as expected, with the statement broadly unchanged, i.e. no significant softening in language as some were hoping for.
European shares jumped 1.1% to their highest in over two-weeks and near record highs, with mining and automobile shares leading gains. Telecommunications and utilities stocks are the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
Ocado jumps as much as 16% after the grocer reported third-quarter retail sales that came ahead of consensus estimates. The company also raised its FY24 revenue guidance for Ocado Retail.
Davide Campari-Milano rise as much as 8.3%, reversing a portion of yesterday’s sharp losses, after a Campari group holding company, Lagfin, said it would buy more shares in the Italian beverage maker
Merck KGaA gains as much as 2.9%, the most since July, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of the German health-care group with a buy recommendation
Next shares jump as much as 6.9%, hitting a fresh record high, after the clothing retailer boosted its full-year pretax profit forecast. Additionally, the company’s first-half total group sales surpassed estimates
Babcock International climbs as much as 3.7% after the support services firm said organic revenue and underlying operating profits grew in the five months to the end of August
Bytes Technology shares rise as much as 7.1%, the biggest jump in 11 months, after reporting strong trading in the first half of the year. Analysts at Shore and Jefferies note that recent share underperformance suggests potential for re-rating
Air France-KLM shares rise as much as 4.3% after BNP Paribas Exane upgrades the stock to neutral from underperform. The broker notes that factors that weighed on the stock this year
REC Silicon rallies as much as 33% after the Norwegian silicon firm announced it will supply Sila Nanotechnologies with US-produced silane for use in the production of Sila’s anode material from its manufacturing facility in Moses Lake, Washington
Kone falls as much as 4.6% in Helsinki after announcing a new strategy for 2025-2030, including new mid-term financial targets, aiming to lead in employee and customer experience, sustainability and innovations
Note AB falls as much as 15%, the most since December, after the Swedish electronics contract manufacturer trimmed its outlook as consumer demand continued to lag
S4 Capital shares plunge as much as 15% to the lowest level in almost six months after the digital advertising company warned that annual like-for-like net revenue will decline more than previously anticipated
Earlier in the session, an Asia gauge of stocks rallied by the most in a week, while an index of Asian currencies rose to the strongest level in more than a year. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.3%, with Japanese exporters including Toyota and Hitachi among top gainers. Both stocks jumped by the most in over a month as the yen plunged having priced in a much more dovish Fed. Hong Kong’s benchmark climbed 2% to the highest level in two months, helped by gains in technology firms. Property-developers in both China and Hong Kong gained, as the latter cut its base interest rate following the Fed’s eased policy.
“I am upbeat on Asian equities following the Fed’s 50 basis points rate cut,” said Rajeev De Mello, chief investment officer at GAMA Asset Management SA. Investors will increase their expectations of a soft landing scenario and that is beneficial for emerging markets and Asia, he added. Some of the less loved asset classes, like small caps, and emerging market equities “should really take solace” that the Fed tightening cycle is over and that monetary easing has started, he said.
On the monetary policy front, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda faces the delicate task on Friday of making sure investors are firmly aware of rate hikes to come, without ruffling markets even as he stands pat on policy. The yen swung between gains and losses in volatile trading Thursday.
In FX, a gauge of the dollar weakened 0.4%, pulling it closer to its January lows as the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index reversed an earlier gain to fall 0.5%. The Norwegian krone has climbed to the top of the G-10 FX leader board, rising 1.4% after the Norges Bank left rates unchanged and signaled they would remain there for the rest of the year. The Aussie dollar rises 1% after jobs data impressed. The pound is up 0.5% ahead of the Bank of England decision where borrowing costs are widely seen on hold.
In rates, the treasuries curve is steeper as US trading begins, after front-end outperformance during Asia session and London morning drove 2s10s spread above 11bp to widest level since June 2022. Treasury front-end yields are richer by nearly 3bp with longer-dated yields little changed, steepening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads by 3bp and 2bp on the day; 10-year is around 3.71% with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by ~1bp; of note here is that the last time yields rose after a 50bps rate cut was… October 2008. Something to keep in mind. Front-end gilts pared early gains after Bank of England rate decision, with the 2-year rising from to 3.885% from around 3.86%.The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 5% and said it won’t rush to ease further. US session includes weekly jobless claims data and a 10-year TIPS reopening.
In commodities, oil advanced as the risk-on tone swept across wider markets, with traders monitoring escalating tensions in the Middle East. WTI rising 1% to $71.65 a barrel. Gold resumed its ascent back toward a record, and was last some $33 higher to around $2,592/oz; silver rallied and copper climbed to its highest level since mid-July, spurred on by the Fed’s move.
Looking at today’s calendar, the roster of Fed speakers is empty for the day and the economic agenda is thin too, with initial jobless claims top of the bill. Darden Restaurants, the owner of the Olive Garden chain, is reporting, with logistics giant FedEx set to update after the close in New York. And there’s a policy decision from the Bank of England today (where it kept rates unchanged), ahead of the Bank of Japan on Friday and after Hong Kong cut rates for the first time since 2020.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 1.3% to 5,695.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 519.46
MXAP up 1.4% to 185.45
MXAPJ up 1.1% to 578.97
Nikkei up 2.1% to 37,155.33
Topix up 2.0% to 2,616.87
Hang Seng Index up 2.0% to 18,013.16
Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 2,736.02
Sensex up 0.2% to 83,137.98
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,191.92
Kospi up 0.2% to 2,580.80
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.20%
Euro up 0.4% to $1.1161
Brent Futures up 1.1% to $74.44/bbl
Gold spot up 0.9% to $2,583.13
US Dollar Index little changed at 100.63
Top Overnight News
US House defeated the Republican stopgap funding bill, while House Speaker Johnson said he will craft a new stopgap spending bill.
Iranian cyber actors in late June and early July sent unsolicited emails to individuals then associated with Biden’s campaign that contained excerpts taken from stolen material from Trump’s campaign, while Iranian cyber actors have continued their efforts since June to send stolen material associated with Trump’s campaign to US media organisations, according to US intelligence agencies.
China to ramp up policy steps to revive economy but no ‘bazooka’ stimulus seen. China expected to trim its Loan Prime Rate (LPR) tonight, w/the Fed’s outsized cut giving the PBOC more flexibility to ease. RTRS
Industries such as finance, consumer tech and property — key drivers of China’s growth for much of this century — are now out of favor. Instead, the most powerful Communist Party leader since Mao Zedong is funneling resources toward endeavors such as electric vehicles and chip production. “High quality” growth is the new mantra, not “high speed.” BBG
Brazil’s real looks set for a boost from carry trades after the central bank lifted its interest rate for the first time since 2022 and signaled more hikes are coming — just three months after halting an easing cycle. BBG
ECB’s Centeno says the central bank may need to accelerate the pace of easing. BBG
The BOE will probably hold its key rate at 5% today, following last month’s cut. Governor Andrew Bailey may offer more hints that it will ease again in November, though Bloomberg Economics expects officials to signal caution. BBG
Putin under growing pressure to authorize a troop mobilization as Russia’s military loses soldiers at a faster rate than it can recruit them. WSJ
Harris and Trump are tied nationally at 47%, but she’s leading by 4 points in PA according to new data published in the NYT. NYT
Microsoft is working with Anduril on combat goggles for the US Army in a project that may generate as much as $21.9 billion over a decade. BBG
Apple will face pressure from the EU to open its iOS to rivals or face sig. fines. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
Asia-Pac stocks were in the green as the region reacted to the Fed’s oversized 50bps rate cut. ASX 200 was underpinned and printed a fresh record high albeit despite somewhat ambiguous jobs data which showed headline Employment Change topped forecast but was entirely due to Part-Time work as Full-Time jobs contracted. Nikkei 225 outperformed and surged above the 37,000 level on the back of a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood with the former led higher by strength in tech and property after the HKMA cut rates by 50bps in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland index was also boosted following the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts and despite the lingering EU tariff concerns.
Top Asian News
HKMA cut its base rate by 50bps to 5.25%, as expected in lockstep with the Fed, while it stated that the US interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the city’s economy and will provide some room for easing of local interest rates.
China’s Commerce Minister said regarding the EU’s electric vehicle probe that China will continue to negotiate ‘until the last minute’ and the investigation has undermined ‘confidence’ of Chinese companies in investing in Europe. It was separately reported that EU capitals will not get to vote on Chinese EV duties next week with the poll removed from the committee agenda for September 25th, according to Politico.
Chinese policymakers will likely step up measures to at least help the economy meet its 2024 growth target with more focus on boosting demand to fight deflationary pressures, “but any forceful stimulus looks unlikely”, via Reuters citing advisors/analysts. Elsewhere, the Chinese government has been urged by a think tank to strengthen coordination of policy in order to improve economic governance, via People’s Daily.
Taiwan raises RRR by 25bps.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+1%) opened the session on a very strong footing, taking positive leads from firm APAC session overnight as the region digested the Fed’s decision to opt for a 50bps cut. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Basic Resources takes the top spot alongside Tech, owing the positive risk on sentiment. Utilities and Telecoms are the laggards. US Equity Futures (ES+1.4%, NQ +1.6%, RTY +2%) are indicative of a very strong open, with clear outperformance in the economy-linked RTY, benefitting from the Fed’s decision to opt for a larger 50bps cut. Apple (AAPL) faces a warning from the EU to open up its iPhone operating system to rival technologies, according to Bloomberg; failure to comply could risk a fineFine could be up to 10% of global annual turnover.
Top European News
Norwegian Key Policy Rate 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.5%); the policy rate forecast implies that the policy rate will remain at 4.5% to the end of 2024 before being gradually reduced from Q1-2025.
ECB’s Knot says there is room for further cuts if inflation outlook holds. “More or less fine with market’s cut expectations”.
ECB’s Schnabel slide release: sticky services inflation is keeping headline inflation at elevated level; Real wage catch-up remains incomplete in large parts of the euro area; Signs that transmission of monetary policy tightening is weakening. Labour demand remains high amid low unemployment and persisting labour shortages. Pass-through of higher wages to producer prices is stronger in the services sector. Demand for services has been resilient but is starting to weaken. Price pressures in the services sector are broad-based and global. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk to the outlook.
Swiss Government Forecasts: Sees 2024 CPI at +1.2% (prev. 1.4%), 2025 CPI seen at +0.7% (prev. 1.1%); 2024 GDP maintained at 1.2%, 2025 GDP seen at +1.6% (prev. +1.7%)
New car registrations: -18.3% Y/Y in August 2024 (vs +0.2% in July 2024); battery electric market share 14.4% (vs 21% in August 2023), according to ACEA.
FX
USD is mostly lower vs. peers (CHF and JPY the exceptions), after the two-way price action seen in the aftermath of the FOMC rate decision and press conference. DXY is still holding above the YTD low printed yesterday at 100.21 in the aftermath of the 50bps cut.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD but below yesterday’s post-FOMC best at 1.1189. Attention is on whether the decisions taken on Wednesday by the Fed will be enough to make a sustained breach of the 1.12 mark.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD but below yesterday’s best levels which saw Cable print a fresh YTD peak before running out of steam ahead of 1.33 during Powell’s press conference. Attention today turn’s to the BoE, where it is widely-expected to keep the Base Rate at 5%, most likely via a 7-2 vote split.
JPY is losing out to the USD despite the dollar being broadly softer vs. peers. This in part could be more a by-product of the current risk environment rather than a policy read between the Fed vs. BoJ.
Antipodeans are both benefiting from the current risk environment whilst also digesting domestic data releases. AUD is the top performer across the majors post-strong employment data, albeit, it is worth noting that a lot of the increase was driven by part-time jobs.
EUR/NOK fell from 11.70 to 11.6657 in an immediate reaction to the Norges Bank policy announcement before extending to an 11.6517 session low. The Bank kept rates unchanged at 4.50% (as expected), and guided the first rate cut to be in Q1’25 (prev. guided Q2’25); disappointing some expectations of potentially guiding towards Q4-2024 (i.e. December’s meeting).
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0983 vs exp. 7.0924 (prev. 7.0870).
Brazil Central Bank raised its Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it stated the pace of future adjustments and overall adjustment magnitude will be guided by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target and that the current scenario requires more restrictive monetary policy.
Fixed Income
USTs lifted from overnight lows but still just about in the red for today’s session as markets continue to digest the FOMC ahead of data this afternoon. Currently holding around the 115-00 mark, which is at the top-end of the day’s range and clear of the overnight 114-22 base.
Bunds are slightly softer, in-fitting with USTs which continue to digest the FOMC, alongside supply from France and Spain which were well received but sparked no real reaction. Bunds are back above the 134.00 mark though the 134.31 peak is someway shy of Wednesday’s 134.86 best.
Gilts are essentially flat ahead of the BoE policy announcement, where an unchanged outcome is expected though this will undoubtedly be subject to dissent with 7-2 most likely though 6-3 and 8-1 are also plausible outcomes.
France sells EUR 12bln vs exp. EUR 10-12bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2030 and 2.00% 2032 OAT.
Spain sells EUR 5.56bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 5.15% 2028, 3.10% 2031, and 3.45% 2043 Bono.
Commodities
Firm trade in the crude complex as a function of the post-FOMC risk appetite, softer Dollar, and heightened geopolitical landscape. Brent’Nov hit a USD 74.54/bbl high following a low print of 72.91/bbl.
Higher across precious metals, largely as a function of the Dollar, bond yields, and geopolitics. Spot silver outperforms but as it retraces the slump seen yesterday. Spot gold meanwhile found resistance as USD 2,600/oz yesterday before pulling back. XAU trades in a current USD 2,551.16-2,585.13/oz range.
Strong performance across base metals thus far amid the jumbo Fed rate cut and softer Dollar, whilst the firm APAC performance and report of the likelihood of more Chinese stimulus only added to the tailwinds.
Qatar set November-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 2.09/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest premium in five months, according to sources.
Indian refiners using Russian insurance cover for Russian oil Cargoes priced above USD 60bbl, via Indian Gov source.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“[Israeli PM] Netanyahu holds a security assessment session today at the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv”, according to Al Arabiya
Israel submitted a new proposal that includes the release of all hostages at once and securing the exit of Hamas leader Sinwar from the Gaza Strip along with anyone who wishes to leave the Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli media. Furthermore, Israel Broadcasting Corporation said the proposal includes the release of Palestinian prisoners, the disarmament of the Gaza Strip, the application of another mechanism of governance there, and an end to the war.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister told CNN that Hezbollah was hit hard and a response is a must for it, according to Asharq News.
US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant to review regional security developments and reiterated US support for Israel amid Iran and Hezbollah threats, according to the Pentagon.
Japan’s Icom (6821 JT) said it was investigating facts surrounding reports that two-way radios bearing the Icom logo exploded in Lebanon, while it later stated that it is not possible to confirm whether the radio product related to Lebanon explosions was shipped by the Co. and noted that the sales of batteries required to operate the device were discontinued about 10 years ago.
Israel army and Hezbollah exchange fire at the border, according to Walla News’ Elster.
Geopolitics: Other
US has no immediate plans to withdraw Typhon missile system from the Philippines which is being used in joint training exercises with the US and the Philippines testing the feasibility of the system’s use in the event of a conflict, while a Philippine government source said there is strategic value in keeping the missile system in the Philippines to deter China.
North Korea said it tested a new tactical ballistic missile on Wednesday which was a modified strategic cruise missile and used a super large warhead in the tactical ballistic missile test which was supervised by North Korean leader Kim. Furthermore, Kim said the country must maintain overwhelming attack capabilities of conventional weapons while continuing to increase nuclear capabilities, according to KCNA.
US event calendar
08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 230,000, prior 230,000
Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.85m, prior 1.85m
08:30: 2Q Current Account Balance, est. -$260b, prior -$237.6b
08:30: Sept. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 0, prior -7.0
10:00: Aug. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. -1.3%, prior 1.3%
10:00: Aug. Leading Index, est. -0.3%, prior -0.6%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
After keeping rates on hold for 14 months, the Fed finally reversed course and delivered a 50bp cut last night, lowering the fed funds target to the 4.75-5.00% range. This was an 11-1 decision with Bowman becoming the first Fed Governor to dissent since 2005, favouring instead a 25bp cut. The larger cut came amid a dovish shift to the Fed’s inflation and unemployment projections compared to June, with 2025 PCE inflation lowered two tenths to 2.1% and unemployment raised two tenths to 4.4%. The SEP also showed a notable shift in the balance of risks, with a clear majority of the FOMC now seeing unemployment risks weighted to the upside but inflation risks as broadly balanced.
However, accompanying the larger cut was a signal of a fundamentally strong economy with no suggestion that continued 50bp cuts were likely. Growth projections were little changed and the dot plot showed the median FOMC member expecting the fed funds range at 4.25-4.50% at year-end. That implies a total of 50bp of further easing over the November and December meetings. In the press conference, Powell repeatedly framed the decision as a “recalibration”, saying that “there is no sense that the committee is in a rush” and adding that “I do not think that anyone should look at this and say that this is the new pace” for easing going forward. Following the meeting, our US economists continue to see the Fed cutting by 25bps per meeting through to March 2025 before slowing to a quarterly pace thereafter. That would leave the fed funds rate in the 3.25-3.5% range at end-2025, near DB’s estimate of nominal neutral.
While fed fund futures had favoured a 50bp cut going into the meeting, market sentiment had showed signs of drifting back towards 25bp. The implied pricing of a 50bp cut fell to below 60% earlier in day, its lowest since the start of the week. In part that echoed comments in the morning by former Cleveland Fed president Mester, who said that “there’s a good case for just doing a series of 25s”. Indeed, our own flash poll for yesterday’s CoTD suggested that the 50bp cut might be the bigger shock to many people, with 62% of responders expecting the smaller 25bp move.
Consistent with this, rates and equities saw a strong initial reaction to the decision, but this then reversed as Powell spoke although equities are notably higher again in Asia. While December fed funds futures ended the day -4.8bps lower, reflecting the larger cut, Fed pricing for a year from now in September 2025 actually moved +2.6bps higher on the day. For Treasuries, the 2yr yield fell by 11bps after the rate announcement to trade -7bps lower on the day, but it ended the session up +1.4bps at 3.62% and is trading at 3.65% this morning as we type. Further out on the curve, 10yr yields fell -4bps to trade marginally lower on the day following the Fed decision but more than reversed the move later on, closing +5.8bps higher at 3.70%. 10yr yields are another +1.7bps higher overnight. On the whole, the rates moves were consistent with our strategists’ take earlier in the week (see here) favouring a twist steepening in the event of a 50bp cut.
On the equity side, the S&P 500 had been trading flat on the day and spiked by nearly 1% on the Fed decision. However, it gave up these gains and a bit more to close -0.29% lower on the day, ending a run of 7 consecutive gains. The NASDAQ (-0.31%) and the Mag-7 (-0.14%) also posted moderate losses, while the small cap Russell 2000 (+0.04%) saw a slight outperformance. This up-and-down move was also visible across other asset classes. The dollar fell by -0.6% against the euro intra-day but recouped those losses later on. Gold touched $2600/oz for the first time ever as Powell began to speak but was down -0.41% to $2558.91/oz by the close.
However Asia has seen a resurgence in risk appetite with S&P (+0.97%) and NASDAQ (+1.41%) futures flying this morning. The Nikkei (+2.49%) though is the star of the show helped by a -0.6% decline in the Yen as the BoJ starts its 2-day policy meeting. Elsewhere, the Hang Seng (+1.26%) is also trading sharply higher after resuming trading post this week’s holiday as the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut its interest rate for the first time since 2020, easing by 50bps to 5.25%, mirroring the Fed’s policy easing. Elsewhere, the CSI (+0.70%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.42%) are seeing a mild rebound from seven-month lows while the KOSPI (-0.25%) is bucking the region’s trend after trading resumed following their three-day national holiday.
Early morning data showed that Australia’s unemployment rate remained steady in August at 4.2% while the number of employed people grew by 47,500 (v/s 26,000 expected). Meanwhile, the participation rate remained at its record level of 67.1%. Following the release of the jobs data, the Australian dollar (+0.38%) is extending its gains for the fourth straight session trading at 0.6790 against the dollar. Meanwhile, yields on the 10yr Australian government bonds have moved +7.3bps higher trading at 3.94% as we go to press.
Looking forward, central banks will stay in the spotlight today, as the Bank of England are announcing their latest policy decision. They delivered an initial rate cut at their previous meeting in August, but it was a close 5-4 vote in favour, and this time around it’s widely expected that they’ll leave rates unchanged at 5%. In his preview, DB’s UK economist also thinks they’ll keep rates unchanged, but the particularly interesting feature of today’s decision will be the vote on the pace of QT for the next 12 months. He thinks that there’ll be a QT increase of around a wider range between £107-127bn, implying a quarterly sales target of £5-10bn. But the risks are skewed to them sticking to a £100bn envelope. See the full preview here
Ahead of that, we also had the UK CPI release for August yesterday, which was in line with consensus at +2.2%. The details were also as expected, with core CPI rising to +3.6%, and services CPI up to +5.6%. In turn, that led investors to dial back the probability of a rate cut at today’s meeting, which fell from 24% to 16% by the close. UK gilts underperformed as well, with the 10yr yield up +7.9bps, and sterling strengthened +0.40% against the US Dollar.
Elsewhere in European markets, there were decent losses as investors looked forward to the Fed’s decision after the close. That meant all the major equity indices lost ground, including the STOXX 600 (-0.50%), the FTSE 100 (-0.68%), the CAC 40 (-0.57%) and the DAX (-0.08%). Euro Stoxx futures are bouncing back +1.11% this morning as I type though. Euro Sovereign bonds fell back yesterday, with yields on 10yr bunds (+4.7bps), OATs (+6.1bps) and BTPs (+7.4bps) moving higher.
Finally, there were a few other US data releases yesterday. Among others, data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed that a 30yr fixed mortgage rate was down to 6.15% in the week ending September 13, which is the lowest its been in just over two years. Otherwise, housing starts rose to an annualised pace of 1.356m in August (vs. 1.318m expected), their highest level since April. Building permits were also up to an annualised pace of 1.475m (vs. 1.410m expected), their highest since March.
To the day ahead now, and one of the main highlights will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision. Otherwise, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Knot, Schnabel and Nagel. Data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for August, and the Conference Board’s leading index for August. Finally, there’s an earnings release from FedEx.
2B) European report
US futures bid, USD pressured and fixed flat; BoE due before US data – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 05:13 AM
European equities opened on a very strong footing and remain at elevated levels; US futures are bid, with the RTY outperforming post-Fed
Dollar continues to sink, the typical haven currencies JPY & CHF lags, whilst Antipodeans outperform; the AUD also benefits from the region’s jobs report
Bonds are incrementally lower (but off worst levels), Gilts remain steady ahead of the BoE policy announcement
Crude benefits from the softer Dollar and risk-tone; XAU and base metals also in the green
Looking ahead, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed, BoE, SARB & CBRT Policy Announcements, BoE Agents Summary of Business Conditions (Q3), Comments from BoC’s Vincent.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+1%) opened the session on a very strong footing, taking positive leads from firm APAC session overnight as the region digested the Fed’s decision to opt for a 50bps cut.
European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Basic Resources takes the top spot alongside Tech, owing the positive risk on sentiment. Utilities and Telecoms are the laggards.
US Equity Futures (ES+1.4%, NQ +1.6%, RTY +2%) are indicative of a very strong open, with clear outperformance in the economy-linked RTY, benefitting from the Fed’s decision to opt for a larger 50bps cut.
Apple (AAPL) faces a warning from the EU to open up its iPhone operating system to rival technologies, according to Bloomberg; failure to comply could risk a fineFine could be up to 10% of global annual turnover.
USD is mostly lower vs. peers (CHF and JPY the exceptions), after the two-way price action seen in the aftermath of the FOMC rate decision and press conference. DXY is still holding above the YTD low printed yesterday at 100.21 in the aftermath of the 50bps cut.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD but below yesterday’s post-FOMC best at 1.1189. Attention is on whether the decisions taken on Wednesday by the Fed will be enough to make a sustained breach of the 1.12 mark.
GBP is firmer vs. the USD but below yesterday’s best levels which saw Cable print a fresh YTD peak before running out of steam ahead of 1.33 during Powell’s press conference. Attention today turn’s to the BoE, where it is widely-expected to keep the Base Rate at 5%, most likely via a 7-2 vote split.
JPY is losing out to the USD despite the dollar being broadly softer vs. peers. This in part could be more a by-product of the current risk environment rather than a policy read between the Fed vs. BoJ.
Antipodeans are both benefiting from the current risk environment whilst also digesting domestic data releases. AUD is the top performer across the majors post-strong employment data, albeit, it is worth noting that a lot of the increase was driven by part-time jobs.
EUR/NOK fell from 11.70 to 11.6657 in an immediate reaction to the Norges Bank policy announcement before extending to an 11.6517 session low. The Bank kept rates unchanged at 4.50% (as expected), and guided the first rate cut to be in Q1’25 (prev. guided Q2’25); disappointing some expectations of potentially guiding towards Q4-2024 (i.e. December’s meeting).
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0983 vs exp. 7.0924 (prev. 7.0870).
Brazil Central Bank raised its Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it stated the pace of future adjustments and overall adjustment magnitude will be guided by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target and that the current scenario requires more restrictive monetary policy.
USTs lifted from overnight lows but still just about in the red for today’s session as markets continue to digest the FOMC ahead of data this afternoon. Currently holding around the 115-00 mark, which is at the top-end of the day’s range and clear of the overnight 114-22 base.
Bunds are slightly softer, in-fitting with USTs which continue to digest the FOMC, alongside supply from France and Spain which were well received but sparked no real reaction. Bunds are back above the 134.00 mark though the 134.31 peak is someway shy of Wednesday’s 134.86 best.
Gilts are essentially flat ahead of the BoE policy announcement, where an unchanged outcome is expected though this will undoubtedly be subject to dissent with 7-2 most likely though 6-3 and 8-1 are also plausible outcomes.
France sells EUR 12bln vs exp. EUR 10-12bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2030 and 2.00% 2032 OAT.
Spain sells EUR 5.56bln vs exp. EUR 5-6bln 5.15% 2028, 3.10% 2031, and 3.45% 2043 Bono.
Firm trade in the crude complex as a function of the post-FOMC risk appetite, softer Dollar, and heightened geopolitical landscape. Brent’Nov hit a USD 74.54/bbl high following a low print of 72.91/bbl.
Higher across precious metals, largely as a function of the Dollar, bond yields, and geopolitics. Spot silver outperforms but as it retraces the slump seen yesterday. Spot gold meanwhile found resistance as USD 2,600/oz yesterday before pulling back. XAU trades in a current USD 2,551.16-2,585.13/oz range.
Strong performance across base metals thus far amid the jumbo Fed rate cut and softer Dollar, whilst the firm APAC performance and report of the likelihood of more Chinese stimulus only added to the tailwinds.
Qatar set November-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 2.09/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest premium in five months, according to sources.
Indian refiners using Russian insurance cover for Russian oil Cargoes priced above USD 60bbl, via Indian Gov source.
EU Current Account NSA,EUR (Jul) 48.0B (Prev. 52.4B); Current Account SA, EUR (Jul) 39.6B (Prev. 51.0B)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
Norwegian Key Policy Rate 4.5% vs. Exp. 4.5% (Prev. 4.5%); the policy rate forecast implies that the policy rate will remain at 4.5% to the end of 2024 before being gradually reduced from Q1-2025.Click for more details.. Norges Bank Forecasts: first cut implied for Q1-2025 (prev. Q2-2025), only a marginal tweak to the Q4-2024 view. Click for more details.
ECB’s Knot says there is room for further cuts if inflation outlook holds. “More or less fine with market’s cut expectations”.
ECB’s Schnabel slide release: sticky services inflation is keeping headline inflation at elevated level; Real wage catch-up remains incomplete in large parts of the euro area; Signs that transmission of monetary policy tightening is weakening. Labour demand remains high amid low unemployment and persisting labour shortages. Pass-through of higher wages to producer prices is stronger in the services sector. Demand for services has been resilient but is starting to weaken. Price pressures in the services sector are broad-based and global. Geopolitical uncertainty remains a key risk to the outlook.
Swiss Government Forecasts: Sees 2024 CPI at +1.2% (prev. 1.4%), 2025 CPI seen at +0.7% (prev. 1.1%); 2024 GDP maintained at 1.2%, 2025 GDP seen at +1.6% (prev. +1.7%)
New car registrations: -18.3% Y/Y in August 2024 (vs +0.2% in July 2024); battery electric market share 14.4% (vs 21% in August 2023), according to ACEA.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US House defeated the Republican stopgap funding bill, while House Speaker Johnson said he will craft a new stopgap spending bill.
Iranian cyber actors in late June and early July sent unsolicited emails to individuals then associated with Biden’s campaign that contained excerpts taken from stolen material from Trump’s campaign, while Iranian cyber actors have continued their efforts since June to send stolen material associated with Trump’s campaign to US media organisations, according to US intelligence agencies.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“[Israeli PM] Netanyahu holds a security assessment session today at the headquarters of the Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv”, according to Al Arabiya
Israel submitted a new proposal that includes the release of all hostages at once and securing the exit of Hamas leader Sinwar from the Gaza Strip along with anyone who wishes to leave the Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli media. Furthermore, Israel Broadcasting Corporation said the proposal includes the release of Palestinian prisoners, the disarmament of the Gaza Strip, the application of another mechanism of governance there, and an end to the war.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister told CNN that Hezbollah was hit hard and a response is a must for it, according to Asharq News.
US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant to review regional security developments and reiterated US support for Israel amid Iran and Hezbollah threats, according to the Pentagon.
Japan’s Icom (6821 JT) said it was investigating facts surrounding reports that two-way radios bearing the Icom logo exploded in Lebanon, while it later stated that it is not possible to confirm whether the radio product related to Lebanon explosions was shipped by the Co. and noted that the sales of batteries required to operate the device were discontinued about 10 years ago.
Israel army and Hezbollah exchange fire at the border, according to Walla News’ Elster.
OTHER
US has no immediate plans to withdraw Typhon missile system from the Philippines which is being used in joint training exercises with the US and the Philippines testing the feasibility of the system’s use in the event of a conflict, while a Philippine government source said there is strategic value in keeping the missile system in the Philippines to deter China.
North Korea said it tested a new tactical ballistic missile on Wednesday which was a modified strategic cruise missile and used a super large warhead in the tactical ballistic missile test which was supervised by North Korean leader Kim. Furthermore, Kim said the country must maintain overwhelming attack capabilities of conventional weapons while continuing to increase nuclear capabilities, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin and Ethereum both climb, taking impetus from the positive risk sentiment.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were in the green as the region reacted to the Fed’s oversized 50bps rate cut.
ASX 200 was underpinned and printed a fresh record high albeit despite somewhat ambiguous jobs data which showed headline Employment Change topped forecast but was entirely due to Part-Time work as Full-Time jobs contracted.
Nikkei 225 outperformed and surged above the 37,000 level on the back of a weaker currency.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood with the former led higher by strength in tech and property after the HKMA cut rates by 50bps in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland index was also boosted following the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts and despite the lingering EU tariff concerns.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
HKMA cut its base rate by 50bps to 5.25%, as expected in lockstep with the Fed, while it stated that the US interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the city’s economy and will provide some room for easing of local interest rates.
China’s Commerce Minister said regarding the EU’s electric vehicle probe that China will continue to negotiate ‘until the last minute’ and the investigation has undermined ‘confidence’ of Chinese companies in investing in Europe. It was separately reported that EU capitals will not get to vote on Chinese EV duties next week with the poll removed from the committee agenda for September 25th, according to Politico.
Chinese policymakers will likely step up measures to at least help the economy meet its 2024 growth target with more focus on boosting demand to fight deflationary pressures, “but any forceful stimulus looks unlikely”, via Reuters citing advisors/analysts. Elsewhere, the Chinese government has been urged by a think tank to strengthen coordination of policy in order to improve economic governance, via People’s Daily.
Taiwan raises RRR by 25bps.
DATA RECAP
Australian Employment (Aug) 47.5k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 58.2k); Full Time Employment (Aug) -3.1k (Prev. 60.5k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%); Participation Rate (Aug) 67.1% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.1%)
New Zealand GDP QQ (Q2) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.1%); YY (Q2) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.5%)
2C ASIAN REPORT.
Fed cut by 50bps though Powell kept his options open on the future pace, BoE ahead – Newsquawk Europe Open
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 01:22 AM
The Fed delivered a 50bps rate cut and the dot plot suggested a further 50bps of reductions this year.
US indices finished marginally lower and yields higher with Powell stating that markets should not assume 50bps is the new pace.
European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.
DXY was seen lower post-FOMC decision before recouping lost ground during the press conference. JPY lags across the majors.
Looking ahead, highlights include US Philly Fed Index, BoE, Norges, SARB & CBRT Policy Announcement, BoE Agents Summary of Business Conditions (Q3), Comments from ECB’s Schnabel, Norges Bank’s Bache & BoC’s Vincent, Supply from Spain, France & US
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks saw two-way price action and the major indices finished marginally lower with an initial dovish knee-jerk reaction spurred following the Fed’s decision to deliver a 50bps rate cut and with the dot plot suggesting a further 50bps reduction this year. However, the initial boost in stocks was then faded during the post-meeting press conference and Q&A as Fed Chair Powell kept the Fed’s options open in which he noted that they could go quicker, or slower, or pause on rate cuts if it is appropriate, with decisions to be made in a meeting-by-meeting approach and he also suggested to not take the move as the new pace.
SPX -0.3% at 5,618, NDX -0.5% at 19,344, DJIA -0.3% at 41,503, RUT Flat at 2,206.
FOMC cut rates by 50bps to 4.75-5.00% (exp. 5.00-5.25%) through an 11-1 vote (Bowman called for a cut of 25bps) and it sees 50bps more cuts this year. Fed stated that inflation has made further progress toward the 2% objective and remains ‘somewhat elevated’, while the FOMC has gained greater confidence in inflation moving sustainably toward 2% and judged that risks to employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. Furthermore, it will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks in considering additional rate adjustments, as well as noted that the economic outlook is uncertain and the FOMC is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate.
Fed sees rates ending 2024 at 4.4% (prev. 5.1%) and 2025 at 3.4% (prev. 4.1%), while it sees rates ending 2026 at 2.9% (prev. 3.1%) and 2027 at 2.9% (exp. 2.9%), with the longer run view at 2.9% (exp. 2.9%, prev. 2.8%).
Fed Chair Powell said in the post-meeting statement that the Fed is not on a preset course and will go meeting-by-meeting on decisions, as well as noted that economic projections are not a plan or decision, and that policy will be adjusted as necessary. Powell also said if the economy remains solid, the Fed can dial back the pace of cuts and equally if the labour market deteriorates, the Fed can respond the economy is strong overall, while he added the is Fed committed to maintaining the economy’s strength and expects GDP growth to remain solid. Furthermore, he said the rate decision reflects growing confidence that strength in the labour market can be maintained and noted that inflation has eased notably but remains above the Fed’s goal.
Fed Chair Powell said during the Q&A that there has been a lot of data including during the blackout in response to why the Fed has opted for a 50bps move and that benchmark revisions showed payrolls may be revised down, while he stated the Committee concluded that a 50bps rate cut was the right thing for the economy and reiterated that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, as well as noted there is nothing in the projections that suggests the Fed is in a rush and they can go quicker, or slower, or pause on rate cuts if it is appropriate. Powell also commented that no one should look at today and think this is the new pace and he does not think the Fed is behind the curve with the rate move timely and a sign of the Fed’s commitment to not get behind.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
US House defeated the Republican stopgap funding bill, while House Speaker Johnson said he will craft a new stopgap spending bill.
Teamsters union said a poll of members showed that 58% supported Trump compared with 31% for Harris, while it later announced that it is not making a US presidential election endorsement.
Iranian cyber actors in late June and early July sent unsolicited emails to individuals then associated with Biden’s campaign that contained excerpts taken from stolen material from Trump’s campaign, while Iranian cyber actors have continued their efforts since June to send stolen material associated with Trump’s campaign to US media organisations, according to US intelligence agencies.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were in the green as the region reacted to the Fed’s oversized 50bps rate cut.
ASX 200 was underpinned and printed a fresh record high albeit despite somewhat ambiguous jobs data which showed headline Employment Change topped forecast but was entirely due to Part-Time work as Full-Time jobs contracted.
Nikkei 225 outperformed and surged above the 37,000 level on the back of a weaker currency.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp conformed to the positive mood with the former led higher by strength in tech and property after the HKMA cut rates by 50bps in lockstep with the Fed, while the mainland index was also boosted following the PBoC’s continued liquidity efforts and despite the lingering EU tariff concerns.
US equity futures (ES +1%, NQ +1.4%) made some headway again overnight after whipsawing post-Fed decision and presser.
European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +1.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY Initially dipped to a fresh YTD low in reaction to the Fed’s surprise 50bps rate cut and projection for another 50bps this year, but then recouped its losses and then some owing to the rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell who said they could go quicker, or slower, or pause on rate cuts if it is appropriate, while decisions are to be made in a meeting-by-meeting approach and he suggested to not take the 50bps move as the new pace.
EUR/USD briefly slipped beneath the 1.1100 handle as the single currency gave way to the recovery of the dollar.
GBP/USD was uneventful after fading the prior day’s early advances, while the attention turns to the incoming BoE rate decision.
USD/JPY continued its post-FOMC resurgence with the help of rising US yields although is off today’s highs after stalling just shy of the 144.00 handle.
Antipodeans saw two-way price action following recent data releases including New Zealand GDP for Q2 which showed a narrower-than-feared contraction, while Australian Employment Change topped forecasts but was solely fuelled by Part-Time jobs.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0983 vs exp. 7.0924 (prev. 7.0870).
Brazil Central Bank raised its Selic rate by 25bps to 10.75%, as expected with the decision unanimous, while it stated the pace of future adjustments and overall adjustment magnitude will be guided by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target and that the current scenario requires more restrictive monetary policy.
BoC minutes stated that ahead of the meeting, some governing council members were more concerned about downside risks to inflation and the concern about downside risks was linked to a potential further weakening of the economy and labour market. However, other members took the view that risks to the inflation outlook were balanced and the governing council agreed it would like to see the economy grow at a rate above potential output.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures traded subdued after Fed Chair Powell stressed a meeting-by-meeting approach and to not think 50bps is the new pace.
Bund futures extended on the prior day’s declines to test the 134.00 level to the downside where support has held.
10yr JGB futures tracked the declines in global counterparts, while the enhanced liquidity auction for longer-dated JGBs resulted in a slightly lower bid-to-cover.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were indecisive after yesterday’s fluctuations and as intraday dollar strength counterbalanced geopolitical-related tailwinds.
Qatar set November-loading Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 2.09/bbl above Dubai quotes which is the highest premium in five months, according to sources.
Libya’s oil and gas minister said the plan is to double natgas production to 4bln cubic feet over the next 4-5 years.
Spot gold lacked firm direction after whipsawing in the aftermath of the Fed rate decision and Powell’s presser.
Copper futures remained contained after fading the initial boost from the Fed’s oversized rate cut.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin mildly gained overnight in choppy trade and reclaimed the USD 62,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
HKMA cut its base rate by 50bps to 5.25%, as expected in lockstep with the Fed, while it stated that the US interest rate cut will have a positive impact on the city’s economy and will provide some room for easing of local interest rates.
China’s Commerce Minister said regarding the EU’s electric vehicle probe that China will continue to negotiate ‘until the last minute’ and the investigation has undermined ‘confidence’ of Chinese companies in investing in Europe. It was separately reported that EU capitals will not get to vote on Chinese EV duties next week with the poll removed from the committee agenda for September 25th, according to Politico.
DATA RECAP
Australian Employment (Aug) 47.5k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 58.2k)
Australian Full Time Employment (Aug) -3.1k (Prev. 60.5k)
Australian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 4.2% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
Australian Participation Rate (Aug) 67.1% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.1%)
New Zealand GDP QQ (Q2) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 0.1%)
New Zealand GDP YY (Q2) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.5% (Prev. 0.3%, Rev. 0.5%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel submitted a new proposal that includes the release of all hostages at once and securing the exit of Hamas leader Sinwar from the Gaza Strip along with anyone who wishes to leave the Gaza Strip, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli media. Furthermore, Israel Broadcasting Corporation said the proposal includes the release of Palestinian prisoners, the disarmament of the Gaza Strip, the application of another mechanism of governance there, and an end to the war.
Israel’s Security Cabinet authorised PM Netanyahu and Galant to take action against Hezbollah, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 12.
Israeli Army Chief said they have many capabilities they have not yet activated, while he added that Israel plans ahead by stages and the price paid by Hezbollah should be high at every stage.
Lebanon’s Foreign Minister told CNN that Hezbollah was hit hard and a response is a must for it, according to Asharq News.
Senior Hamas official said the Israeli government is responsible for the repercussions of this continuous attack on Lebanon.
Iran will follow up on the attack against its envoy in Lebanon and reserves its rights under international law to take required measures deemed necessary to respond, according to a letter from Iran’s UN envoy.
US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to Israel’s Defence Minister Gallant to review regional security developments and reiterated US support for Israel amid Iran and Hezbollah threats, according to the Pentagon.
Germany’s government placed war weapons export permits to Israel on hold, according to Reuters citing sources.
Japan’s Icom (6821 JT) said it was investigating facts surrounding reports that two-way radios bearing the Icom logo exploded in Lebanon, while it later stated that it is not possible to confirm whether the radio product related to Lebanon explosions was shipped by the Co. and noted that the sales of batteries required to operate the device were discontinued about 10 years ago.
OTHER
Russian President Putin ordered the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement between Russia and Iran, according to Interfax.
China’s government pushed back on a US probe of whether China is helping Russia dodge a US ban on Russian uranium imports and stated that Beijing has always opposed “illegal unilateral sanctions”.
US has no immediate plans to withdraw Typhon missile system from the Philippines which is being used in joint training exercises with the US and the Philippines testing the feasibility of the system’s use in the event of a conflict, while a Philippine government source said there is strategic value in keeping the missile system in the Philippines to deter China.
North Korea said it tested a new tactical ballistic missile on Wednesday which was a modified strategic cruise missile and used a super large warhead in the tactical ballistic missile test which was supervised by North Korean leader Kim. Furthermore, Kim said the country must maintain overwhelming attack capabilities of conventional weapons while continuing to increase nuclear capabilities, according to KCNA.
2 JAPAN
JAPAN USA/CHINA
3 CHINA
CHINA/USA
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND
Pound Surges To 30-Month-High After Bank Of England Holds Rates Steady
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 08:31 AM
On the heels of yesterday’s exuberant 50bps rate-cut by The Fed, Bank of England (BoE) officials (in a split decision) decided to leave the Bank Rate at 5.00% (as widely expected).
The split of the vote (8-1), however, was somewhat more hawkish than many expected with only one MPC member (Dhingra) voting for a cut.
While the MPC stuck to its meeting by meeting approach (saying “[It] will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting”), it added a new sentence saying “in the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate”, indicating that it is not keen to cut too fast or by too much.
At this month’s decision, BoE policymakers slightly downgraded their outlook for the UK economy.
They now expect growth at 0.3% in the third quarter, slightly lower than the 0.4% forecast in August.
Laura Cooper, global investment strategist at Nuveen, said the BOE would likely catch up with the US through next year. UK growth looks sluggish and the Labour government is expected to raise taxes and cut public spending at its Oct. 30 budget, which she said could warrant a more aggressive easing cycle.
“As focus turns to the fiscal backdrop and the upcoming October budget, the Bank of England’s reluctance to follow major peers in a swifter cutting cycle will be challenged,” Cooper said.
The set statement also ended with a hawkish tone, that policy will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to 2% have dissipated further.
Finally, we note that The BoE announced it would maintain the pace of QT (allowing £100 bn to run off its Asset Purchase Facility in the coming year against £100 bn in the year just ended).
The BOE’s quantitative tightening plan implies “a much smaller amount of active gilt sales,” said Jessica Hinds, a director in Fitch Ratings’ economics team (we estimate active sales decline from around £50 bn to £13 bn).
“While bank reserves are currently well above estimates of minimum required levels, today’s announcement suggests that the MPC wants to keep the path of total reduction predictable given the large amount of gilts maturing over the next 12 months.”
The more hawkish tone overall sent cable higher, with the pound reaching its strongest against the dollar since March 2022…
Cable has picked up some more impetus in the last six weeks or so since the respective meetings of central banks, and the growing conviction in markets about the rate paths of the two diverging.
“Everything here says it’s likely to be a gradual quarterly pace of rate cuts at best,” said Jordan Rochester, head of macro strategy at Mizuho International.
Gilts slipped and money markets pared wagers on the extent of BOE interest-rate cuts this year, with 42 basis points of easing seen through December compared with 50 basis points before the decision (a November rate-cut is still fully priced-in for the BoE and a follow-up December cut is trading around a 65% chance).
end
GERMANY
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
Germany’s economic scene collapsing by the day
(Inside Beer)
Germany: Centuries-Old Breweries Close Forever
The decline of the traditional German brewing industry shows no signs of slowing down. Recently, several breweries have filed for bankruptcy or closed permanently, resulting in the loss of centuries-old brewing traditions.
The latest victims are the Gambrinus Brewery in Weiden, Upper Palatinate, and the Gesellschaftsbrauerei Viechtach, about 100 km southeast. Both are located in the Bavarian border region with the Czech Republic, an area often described as structurally weak.
The nearly 100-year-old Gambrinus Brewery filed for insolvency on Friday at the Weiden District Court due to unpaid bills and outstanding wages. The brewery’s decline is attributed to rising costs, pandemic-related sales losses, and internal issues, with current production at around 15,000 hl, half its peak output.
On Thursday, it was announced that the insolvent Gesellschaftsbrauerei Viechtach would close permanently after nearly 500 years, ceasing production. Despite intensive negotiations, no investors were willing to continue operations. Remaining employees have been let go, and the Viechtacher brand will continue to be produced at the nearby Hofmark Brewery in Loifling, located in the Cham district of the Upper Palatinate.
Last month, the 672-year-old Karmeliter-Bräu from Salz near Bad Neustadt an der Saale (about 75 km northeast of Würzburg) permanently closed its doors. The brand and distribution rights were acquired by Oettinger Brewery, one of Germany’s largest brewery groups, mainly active in the entry-level segment (inside.beer, 10.6.2024). It is speculated that the brand, named after a monastic order, will be used to establish the group in the higher-priced segment, similar to other well-known brands like Trappist, Augustiner, Paulaner, Franziskaner, Benediktiner, and Kapuziner.
In addition to various external and internal factors, the wave of brewery closures is also due to declining beer consumption in Germany. Recent figures show a significant drop in sales in June 2024 compared to June 2023, with a total decrease of 11.2% or nearly 1 million hl. The Federal Statistical Office reported that beer sales in June 2024, at 7.77 million hl, were the lowest for June since the Beer Tax Act was revised in 1993. Despite a promising start, beer sales in Germany from January to June 2024 are down 0.6% or 250,000 hl. The industry had hoped that the European Football Championship in their home country would provide a much-needed boost after years of decline.
Since 2018, the German brewing industry has lost over 10 million hectoliters. December 2023 showed little reason for optimism, with domestic sales decreasing by 6.9% and exports by 9.2%. (inside.beer, 2.2.2024)
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Will the pager operation deter Hezbollah and Iran, and is Israel prepared for war if not?
The spectacular gambit had apparently been intended to serve as the opening salvo of a major ground offensive. All sides are now weighing their options, including full-scale conflict
Pieces of an exploded pager in a picture circulating on social media, September 17, 2024 (via telegram)
This Editor’s Note was sent out earlier Wednesday in ToI’s weekly update email to members of the Times of Israel Community. To receive these Editor’s Notes as they’re released, join the ToI Community here.
Tuesday’s detonation of thousands of Hezbollah pagers across Lebanon and into Syria was a spectacular feat of intel, technology and execution — the starkest of contrasts to the abject failures that enabled Hamas to carry out its October 7 invasion, mass murder, rapes, and abductions.
The exploding pagers operation — widely reported to have been carried out by Israel, though not acknowledged here as such — had apparently been devised to serve in the near future as an opening salvo in a major ground offensive to deplete and deter Hezbollah. This, in turn, would aim to create the conditions for a restoration of security in the north and the return of the tens of thousands of Israelis who have been forced from their homes for almost a year.
In such a scenario, the impact of the vast, coordinated wave of explosions could have been extraordinarily significant — not only in directly putting a proportion of Hezbollah terrorists out of action, but also broadly complicating communications and logistics within the world’s largest and most potent terrorist army at the moment of truth.
Amid a reported “use it or lose it” dilemma, with some in Hezbollah having become suspicious that their new pagers were Trojan horses, the decision was made to detonate the devices — but not, evidently, as the first act of a full-on war.
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Back in December, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned that Israel was “being attacked from seven different arenas”: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran. The past few days have underlined the point — with skyrocketing friction in the north, ongoing fighting and losses in Gaza, greater IDF deployments to tackle terror in the West Bank, rocket and drone attacks by the Houthis and pro-Iranian militias in Yemen and Iraq respectively, and the ayatollahs pulling the strings.
Late last month, Gallant told his fellow cabinet ministers that Israel was now at a “strategic crossroads” — with one route leading to a hostage-ceasefire deal in Gaza, a potential calming in the north, and a possible road to a bolstered regional alliance, including with the Saudis, against Iran’s axis of evil. The other, he warned, could see Israel becoming increasingly embroiled in Gaza, hopes for the hostages receding, and an escalation in the north with the IDF stretched beyond its limits.
As of this writing, even after Tuesday’s dramatic practical and psychological blow to Hezbollah, it remains conceivable that things could go either way. A hostage-ceasefire deal has receded but the Americans, at least, have not given up. And Israel did not utilize those first hours of Hezbollah shock and confusion to send ground forces into Lebanon to tackle Hassan Nasrallah’s Radwan forces. Neither did it launch airstrikes to try to disable Hezbollah’s most potent heavy and precision-guided missiles.
A video shows a man, left, just before he was injured by an explosion in Beirut on September 17, 2024. (Screen capture: X)
Hezbollah has vowed to hit back at Israel, but then of course it has been battering Israel for 11 months — widening its rocket attacks, launching drones at bases in central Israel, and even, we can now report, attempting to assassinate former chief of staff and defense minister Moshe Ya’alon. Doubtless, it is hatching its latest attack plans right now.
One question is whether Nasrallah, and more pertinently the Iranians who supply his missiles and finances, are ready to start an all-out war, or whether the pager humiliation will give them pause as they wonder what else Israel may have up its sleeve.
Another is whether Israel is as prepared as it needs to be for a conflict that could now deepen drastically at any moment, and dwarf even the hostilities of the past 11 months.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant speaks to reservists of the Oded Brigade during a drill in northern Israel, September 10, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)
Not too late to think again
The unconscionable recklessness of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan to install Gideon Sa’ar as defense minister in the midst of this seven-front war is only underlined by the escalated stakes following the strike on the Hezbollah pagers.
That Sa’ar, a man with no substantial military background or expertise, would think himself capable of seamlessly taking over direct ministerial responsibility for Israel’s security establishment during arguably the most dangerous period in modern Israeli history defies belief.
That he would slink away from years of passionate warnings against Netanyahu’s prioritizing his premiership’s survival over Israel’s is bad enough. That he himself would take a job for which he is “not competent” — in the words of former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot — and exacerbate the dangers is unforgivable.
I’ve already written my certain-to-be-unheeded plea to Netanyahu to think again. It’s not too late for Sa’ar to do so.
Then-Prime Minister-designate Binyamin Netanyahu (right) and Likud faction chairman MK Gideon Sa’ar speak during a meeting of the Likud Knesset faction, March 2 .2009. (Ariel Jerozolimski)
National will
At this fateful hour, it is worth noting that, unlike the era of unfounded complacency before October 7, Israel now recognizes the potency of the external threats it faces.
It is worth stressing that Israel surmounted improbable odds to survive the War of Independence, to preempt a pan-Arab attack in 1967, to recover from the losses and despair at the start of the Yom Kippur War, and to hold firm during the strategic onslaught of suicide bombings in the Second Intifada.
It is worth highlighting that the Iranian regime that is coordinating the multifront efforts to destroy Israel is internally weak and unloved by its people, and that potential partners in the strategic war to face down the regime have not closed the door on Israel this past year.
Troops of the 5th Reserve Infantry Brigade operate in the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza, in a handout image published September 16, 2024 (Israel Defense Forces)
It is also vital to recall that, in its darkest hours, this country was sustained by national will — by the resilience of a people with a shared determination to prevail and a keen sense of shared responsibilities.
It’s that national will that has enabled Israel to survive and flourish. Without it, Israel is imperiled. With it, all external enemies, on any and every front, can be defeated.
Protesters call for the release of Israelis held hostage by Hamas terrorists in Gaza, outside Hakirya Base in Tel Aviv, September 19, 2024 (Tomer Neuberg/Flash90)
Israel has proposed a framework for a deal with Hamas that would see all the hostages released at once and an end to the fighting in the Gaza Strip, along with safe passage out of the enclave for Yahya Sinwar and his associates, the Kan public broadcaster reports.
The proposed plan would see the release of Palestinian prisoners jailed in Israel, the demilitarization of the Strip, and a new system of governance for Gaza, the report says. No further details are given.
According to the report, Gal Hirsch, the government point man on the hostages, told the families of hostages that the proposal was presented last week in a meeting with US officials from the White House and State Department.
Sources who met with Hirsch say the proposal is called the “safe passage deal.”
An unnamed Israeli official tells Kan that the plan has been proposed as a “Plan B.”
“In light of the difficulties in the negotiations and the ticking clock on the lives of the hostages, we would like to propose a secondary plan that would shorten the stages, and allow for a faster deal,” the official says. “This will happen if Sinwar leaves [Gaza] and brings about an end to the war. This will allow us to to meet the goals of the war, and for the leadership of Hamas in Gaza to leave to a safe place.”
It is not the first time a proposal has been touted that would see all the hostages released in one go in return for the end of the war, sparked by Hamas’s devastating October 7 attack.
end
ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH.
Israel Unleashes Heavy Strikes On South Lebanon After War Plans Approved
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 10:20 AM
Israel’s military has just announced that IDF chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has “approved operational plans as part of the continuation of the war” in Israel’s north against Lebanon’s Hezbollah. Exchanges of fire grew overnight and as of Thursday afternoon heavier airstrikes on southern Lebanon have been reported, as well as more than 40 rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel.
Local Hebrew media says several Israelis have been wounded after a missile fired by Hezbollah hit a vehicle in northern Israel. Israel says the goal of the new escalated anti-Hezbollah operation is to allow the return of the 80,000 residents of the north who have been forced out of their homes for almost a year.
“We are very determined to create the security conditions that will return the residents to their homes, to the communities, with a high level of security, and we are ready to do all that is required to bring about these things,” the IDF stated.
The IDF has indicated that a new major operation has begun. Indeed it appears the feared bigger Lebanese war has come:
“The IDF is currently striking Hezbollah targets in Lebanon to degrade Hezbollah’s terrorist capabilities and infrastructure.”
“For decades, Hezbollah has weaponized civilian homes, dug tunnels beneath them and used weapons as human shields—having turned southern Lebanon into a war zone,” it said.
It is likely that the rate of airstrikes and mortar fire will rise throughout the day into the night. The major Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon have been confirmed through several circulating social media videos.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah is currently addressing the pager attack crisis of the last two days which has left at least 37 dead and hundreds wounded. The televised speech is being closely followed by Lebanese and Israelis and the West alike.
He described that Israel “targeted thousands of pagers in one go” on Tuesday and Wednesday. “This is an act of war and a declaration of war by Israel on the Lebanese people,” Nasrallah said, further describing the attack as “an effort to kill 5,000 Lebanese people within minutes.” He acknowledged that Hezbollah suffered a ‘major and unprecedented’ blow but also emphasized that over much of the past year Israel has “lost the north” of its own country and the settlers are “screaming” in pain and danger.
Nasrallah says many of the pagers were out of service, turned off or stored away. He repeats that Israel’s wilfull intent was to kill thousands of Lebanese people within minutes.
Two IDF troops killed on northern border; warplanes launch wave of strikes on Hezbollah
Nine soldiers wounded by anti-tank missiles and drones fired at north; Lebanese terror group says 37 members killed in communication device blasts, IDF strikes
Israeli soldiers evacuate wounded people who was severly injured when a missile fired from Lebanon hit the Ramim Ridge area, near the Israeli border with Lebanon, September 19, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
Israeli fighter jets struck some 30 Hezbollah rocket launchers and other infrastructure in southern Lebanon on Thursday evening, according to the Israel Defense Forces, while two soldiers were killed and several others were wounded in Hezbollah missile and drone attacks on northern Israel earlier in the day.
The IDF named the slain soldiers as Maj. (res.) Nael Fwarsy, 43, a logistics company commander in the 300th “Baram” Regional Brigade’s 299th Battalion, from Maghar, and Sgt. Tomer Keren, 20, of the Golani Brigade’s 51st Battalion, from Haifa.
Fwarsy was killed and another soldier was lightly wounded after an explosive-laden drone launched by Hezbollah struck an area outside Ya’ara in the Western Galilee.
Keren was killed and eight other soldiers were wounded, including one seriously, after two anti-tank missiles launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon struck a position in the Ramim Ridge area on the border in the Galilee Panhandle.
The launchers targeted in the airstrikes, according to the military, included some 150 launch barrels that were primed for an immediate attack on Israel.
The military added that several buildings and a weapons depot belonging to Hezbollah were struck in several areas of southern Lebanon, and released footage of the strikes.
Rambam Medical Center in Haifa said it had admitted two people in moderate-to-serious condition while Ziv Hospital in Safed said it admitted six who were lightly hurt.
A video shared on social media earlier showed a projectile hitting a chicken coop in the Margaliot agricultural community. There were no injuries to people. The building was full of livestock at the time, and it was not clear if the birds were harmed.
The IDF said it returned fire with artillery at the source of the rocket launches.
The incidents came amid a period of sharply spiraling tensions on the border with Lebanon, where Israeli forces have been exchanging fire with the Iranian-backed Hezbollah for months. So far neither side has allowed the situation to escalate into a full-scale war, but recent developments have raised fears that an all-out conflict could explode at any moment.
On Tuesday thousands of pagers carried by Hezbollah members exploded almost simultaneously, killing 12 people and injuring nearly 3,000, with the terror group blaming Israel and vowing revenge. Then, on Wednesday, another wave of explosions appearing to mainly target handheld radios used by Hezbollah members killed 25 people and injured some 450, according to Lebanese health officials.
Hezbollah named 12 members it said were killed by Israel on Tuesday — some who were killed after pagers used by the terror group exploded, and others in strikes in southern Lebanon. On Wednesday evening and Thursday morning, Hezbollah announced the deaths of another 25 members, all of whom were killed in the walkie-talkie blasts.
In all, Hezbollah has admitted to the deaths of 37 members in the past two days.
During the night, Israeli fighter jets struck buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon’s Chihine, Taybeh, Blida, Mays al-Jabal Aitaroun, and Kafr Kila, the IDF said.
Planes also hit a Hezbollah weapons depot in Khiam, the military added.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke overnight with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to “reflect on the strategic, regional picture and to brief the Secretary on IDF operations in the southern and northern arenas, focusing on Israel’s defense against Hezbollah threats,” the minister’s office said in a statement.
Earlier Wednesday, Hezbollah fired around 20 projectiles into Israel, most of which were intercepted by air defense systems without causing any injuries, the military said.
The developments came after Gallant announced a “new phase” in the war, which began in the south on October 7 when Palestinian terror group Hamas led a devastating cross-border attack that killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians.
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, in solidarity with Hamas.
Gallant said the focus would be shifting to the north, with more military units and resources being sent to the border. According to Israeli officials, the forces being deployed to the border include the 98th Division, an elite formation including commando and paratroop elements that has been fighting in Gaza.
An IDF seen on top of a truck in traffic, on their way to the northern border with Lebanon, September 18, 2024. (Yossi Aloni/Flash90)
Tens of thousands of people have been evacuated on both sides of the border, and there has been mounting pressure in Israel for the government to enable the evacuees to go back home.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed on Wednesday to return the evacuated Israelis “securely to their homes” a day after the security cabinet added returning them as a declared goal of the Gaza war, along with destroying Hamas, ensuring it can’t attack Israel again, and bringing home the 97 hostages that terrorists abducted from the country on October 7 and took as captives back to Gaza.
So far, the skirmishes in the north have resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 20 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 478 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 79 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.
Meanwhile, Israeli authorities were looking into whether “emergency warning” text messages sent overnight and instructing thousands of Israelis to immediately enter their bomb shelters were sent by Iranian-linked actors.
The IDF clarified that it didn’t send the messages, which were sent from a user apparently pretending to be the IDF Home Front, but that misspelled the Hebrew term for a safe room and included a suspicious hyperlink.
Some messages that were sent took a more sinister tone, telling recipients to hug their loved ones goodbye or that they would soon “go to hell.”
In a statement, the National Cyber Directorate said the messages were “the enemy’s attempts to create panic.”
It warned that “during this period attempts of this type are increasing and therefore one should be more alert to suspicious messages, check links that seem unofficial and do not click on them, block the number” and report anything suspicious to the directorate on 119.
“If in doubt, check directly on recognized and official channels,” the statement said.
end
Lebanon Bans Pagers & Walkie-Talkies On All Flights Leaving Beirut
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 11:00 AM
The last two days saw so many pagers, two-way radios, and electronic devices explode – literally thousands – that there are fears an electronic with a bomb in it could inadvertently make its way onto a passenger flight. The country’s state news broadcaster NNA is reporting that Lebanon’s director general of civil aviation has banned all passengers from carrying pagers and walkie-talkies on board any aircraft.
Airport security at Beirut Rafic Hariri International Airport will search for and prevent any pagers or two-way radios from being in cargo, checked, and carry-on luggage. The rule has taken effect immediately.
Following the Tuesday and Wednesday blasts, believed the work of Israeli intelligence, at least 37 have been killed and over 3,250 others injured. Reports say that even laptops and cell phones exploded in some instances. Lebanon’s Health Ministry on Thursday said there were 608 injured in the Wednesday blasts alone.
Some analysts are currently expressing that a ban on pagers and walkie-talkies could be something that spreads beyond airports in the Middle East. There were so many blasts all across Beirut and Lebanon, with some reported in Syria too, that the concern is a rigged pager could easily make it on a flight, possibly with someone sitting next to a window.
The EU’s Josep Borrell yesterday highlighted the “indiscriminate” tactic of the Israeli operation, while the Kremlin condemned it as “international terrorism”.
While the majority of dead and injured appear to be Hezbollah operatives, several were civilians including children and medical workers. Many devices blew up inside homes and apartment buildings. A regional report summarizes:
On Tuesday, some 4,000 pagers exploded over the course of an hour. A day later, more explosions of handheld devices, including walkie-talkie radios, mobile phones, laptops and even solar power cells, took place.
Abiad said that more than 300 patients are in intensive care, and 400 require surgeries and other treatments.
The explosions on Wednesday involved “larger and bigger devices that caused more damage”, he added, resulting in wounds that involve “internal bleeding, injuries to the abdomen and other parts of the body, including brain haemorrhages”.
A local medical professional, Dr Ghassan Abu-Sittah, described to Sky News there has been a huge number of amputations as a result of the attack. “Almost exclusively the pager explodes in the hand while people are trying to read the message, so we’re getting mangled hands and penetrating injuries and blast injuries to the face and the eyes,” he said. He said many of the victims “will end up with some permanent disability.”
“We are all afraid,” Beirut resident Rana Bahlawani told Al Jazeera. “Everyone is living day by day as no one knows what to expect.” The capital’s popular seaside promenade, the Corniche, has reported to be empty throughout Thursday.
Russia has accused the West of a double standard after the US has refused to condemn the pager attacks, calling it “international terrorism”..
One prominent X account of a Lebanese user living in the West wrote: “My cousin in Beirut messaged me saying she disconnected her baby monitor and other household appliances and devices. Our people are unaware of which devices are safe and which are not.” A feeling of paranoia, chaos, and fear has gripped much of Lebanon.
Another commenter, Marc Lynch, said of the pager operation, “Israel’s attack on Hezbollah phones was technically brilliant, sure. It was also absolutely guaranteed that phones would explode in densely packed civilian areas. Markets, malls, taxis, buses. Just look at footage from hospitals. In any other context we’d call that terrorism and it is here too.”
Hezbollah cyberattack unprecedented in accuracy and impact, says West Point expert
John Spencer analyzed a recent cyberattack on Hezbollah that involved pager explosions, injuring thousands and significantly disrupting the group’s operations and morale.
A personnel of American University of Beirut Medical Center stands next to an empty stretcher, as people, including Hezbollah fighters and medics, were wounded and killed when the pagers they use to communicate exploded across Lebanon, according to a security source, in Beirut, Lebanon September 17(photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
Chair of urban warfare studies at West Point, John Spencer, expressed his amazement regarding the strategy behind the recent cyberattack on Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon after analyzing the incident in a thread of Wednesday X/Twitter posts.
The attack on Tuesday involved the explosion of pagers used for communication among the terror group, injuring an estimated 4,000 people and killing 11.
The following day, another wave of explosions across Lebanon injured an additional 500 and resulted in 20 deaths, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry late Wednesday night report.
Spencer shared his insights on the attack, stating that while there have been significant intelligence operations and surprise attacks throughout history, he has not seen one as precise, forceful, and geographically widespread as this.
“I cannot find a similar intelligence/military operation with such secrecy, lethality, ingenuity, and audacity,” he remarked in the post.
Smoke rises from a mobile shop as civil defence members gather in Sidon, Lebanon September 18, 2024 (credit: REUTERS/HASSAN HANKIR)
Furthermore, he highlighted that this single operation significantly impacted Hezbollah, with reported injuries in the thousands and dozens killed.
“The attack also exposed the Hezbollah network, not just in Lebanon but in other parts of the Middle East where Hezbollah agents or affiliates carried this specific pager issued by the group,” he noted.
Spencer emphasized the psychological aspect of warfare, stating, “War is a contest of will. It includes psychology and emotion.”
Additionally, Spencer remarked on the substantial psychological impact caused by the attack, explaining that “Hezbollah cannot trust their equipment, cannot communicate (they switched to pagers out of concerns that Israel was monitoring their communications), and will likely alter many elements of their operations, which could lead to further mistakes that can be exploited. With a single push of a button, fear was instilled in Hezbollah forces.”
Why now?
Acknowledging that Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy force in Lebanon that has been relentless in its attacks since October 8, Spencer concluded, “Israel is fighting many enemies on multiple fronts. What it does and when it does it must consider many stakeholders, including their enemies, allies, and domestic and international contexts, as well as other ongoing operations.”
This shows a sing featuring the names of several companies on the door of a house where a Hungarian company that allegedly manufactured pagers that exploded in Lebanon and Syria in an attack blamed on Israel, is headquartered in Budapest, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo/Denes Erdos)
BAC Consulting, which reportedly manufactured and supplied thousands of pagers that exploded in an attack on Hezbollah members on Tuesday, is an Israeli front company, the New York Times reports.
Three intelligence officers briefed on the operation tell the newspaper that at least two other shell companies were created to obscure the fact that the manufacturers of the pagers were Israeli intelligence officers. Some earlier reports have suggested that Israel could have tampered with pagers that had already been manufactured.
According to the NYT report, the pagers began to be shipped to Lebanon in 2022, but supply was increased when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah denounced the use of cellphones as operationally unsafe.
Thousands were distributed to officers in the terror group, as well as their allies, the Times reports.
While Israel has not admitted that it was behind the attack in which at least 12 were killed and hundreds injured when the small explosive charges stashed inside the pagers were triggered, 12 current and former defense and intelligence officials who were briefed on the attack tell the New York Times that Israel was responsible.
A day later, walkie-talkies used by the terror group’s members also exploded, in an apparent second wave of the attack.
This video grab, shows a walkie-talkie that was detonated inside a house in an attack on Hezbollah members widely blamed on Israel, in Baalbek, east Lebanon, Sept. 18, 2024. (AP Photo)
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH LEBANON
Nasrallah dares Israel to invade Lebanon in speech, calls it ‘historic opportunity’
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called Israel’s Northern Command leader “foolish” and addressed the displaced Israelis in the North.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 19, 2024 17:35Updated: SEPTEMBER 19, 2024 18:26
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah gives a televised address, Lebanon, September 19, 2024, in this screenshot taken from a video.(photo credit: Al-Manar TV via REUTERS)
“Israel’s foolish Northern Command leader talks about a security zone inside Lebanese territory – we are waiting for you to enter Lebanese territory. We are waiting for your tanks, and we will see this as a historic opportunity,” Nasrallah declared as he slammed the IDF commander.
Additionally, Nasrallah admitted that he was in touch with Israel about the attacks that took place on both Tuesday and Wednesday. He noted that he knew there would be another round of explosions on Wednesday after the first round.
“On Tuesday, I received messages from Israel to stop the attacks. Otherwise, there would be another strike on Wednesday,” Nasrallah explained.
Nasrallah addressed the displaced citizens in Israel’s North. He stated, “The enemy’s [Israel’s] talk about shifting the weight to the north is mixed after expanding the war’s objectives by returning its settlers to the north of occupied Palestine.”
People watch Lebanon’s Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah delivering a televised address, as they sit at a cafe in Beirut, Lebanon September 19, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MOHAMED AZAKIR)
Addressing the displaced in the North
“Can you return the displaced to the North?” Nasrallah asked. “We accept this challenge, and you will not be able to return them and do whatever you want. The only way to return the displaced to the North is to stop the aggression on the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.”
Expressing gratitude
Nasrallah opened his speech by thanking “the Lebanese government, the Ministry of Health, and the civil defense institutions for their efforts. What has happened over the past two days deserves recognition and a firm response. There are many eye injuries, and hospitals are under pressure as they work tirelessly. I commend the families of the martyrs, both at home and on the southern front, for accepting the honor of martyrdom, and I wish the injured a swift recovery.”
Nasrallah also expressed gratitude to Iran, Iraq, and Syria for their medical support in the aftermath of the attacks. He went on to accuse Israel, stating, “Israel issued thousands of summonses and detonated them simultaneously. The Israeli enemy has violated all laws, regulations, and red lines. Numerous bombings targeted hospitals, markets, public roads, homes, and other areas heavily populated by civilians.”
He continued, “We expect the number of casualties to rise due to these radio bombings. Dozens of deaths and countless injuries have yet to be fully reported, but the toll is very high. The enemy is aware that there are 4,000 beeper holders, all of whom are Hezbollah members, meaning they deliberately killed 4,000 in an instant. Israel showed no regard for the fact that these beeper holders were in civilian areas or using civilian means.”
‘The attacks were massacres’
“What happened was a major terrorist operation,” Nasrallah declared. “We will define the events of Tuesday and Wednesday as massacres. We have established several internal investigation committees, explored all scenarios and possibilities, and have reached an almost final conclusion: these massacres amount to war crimes or a declaration of war.”
Nasrallah also vowed to punish Israel for the attacks, stating that the country would face “a crushing response from the axis of resistance.”
“Tuesday and Wednesday were bloody days, but we will be able to overcome this ordeal, and this blow won’t bring us down,” he added.
END
LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH./LEBANON
Most Intense Israeli Bombing Since Gaza War’s Start Rocks Lebanon
by Tyler Durden
Update(1519ET): The evening hours (local time) have seen a “major intensification of bombing” by Israel’s military in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, Reuters is reporting based on Lebanese security officials.
The officials called it “the most intense bombing since the start of the war in Gaza” and the IDF has since confirmed striking at least 30 Hezbollah launch locations and “terrorist infrastructure sites” on Thursday. Israel’s miliary said it hit “approximately 150 launcher barrels that were ready to fire projectiles toward Israeli territory.”
Within hours prior to the intensified Israeli bombing campaign, the IDF confirmed that two Israeli soldiers were killed near the border with Lebanon. Israeli media indicated one was killed by a drone launched from Lebanon and the other by a Hezbollah anti-tank missile.
Israel thwarts Iranian plot to assassinate Benjamin Netanyahu, Yoav Gallant, Ronen Bar
The Shin Bet unveiled an Iranian assassination plot targeting PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 19, 2024 09:35Updated: SEPTEMBER 19, 2024 10:49
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar.(photo credit: AVSHALOM SASSONI/FLASH90, Chaim Goldberg/Flash90, MAYA ALLERUZZO/POOL/VIA REUTERS, WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)
Iran plotted to assassinate Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Shin Bet Director Ronen Bar, the Shin Bet announced on Thursday.
In addition, the Islamic Republic, at a somewhat more vague level, explored assassinating former prime minister Naftali Bennett and other top Israeli defense officials.
The plot was to use an Israeli businessman who spent extensive time living in Turkey and had financial dealings with both Turkish and Iranian persons to develop assassination plans in Israel.
Pro-Palestinian protestors, students from various Turkish universities, shout slogans outside the Istanbul University main campus, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, in Istanbul, Turkey, May 18, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/MURAD SEZER)
To effectuate the plan, in April of this year, Turkish citizens Andrei Farouk Aslan and Guneid Aslan contacted the Israeli businessman to conduct financial transactions, inviting him to the Turkish city of Samandag to meet with two representatives of a rich Iranian named Edi. In May, the meeting was held.
Israeli business in Iran
But when he was told that Edi could not leave Iran for Turkey, he agreed to have himself smuggled by car from Turkey into Iran, where he met Edi and a member of the Iranian security establishment named Haj.
The Israeli businessman initially had requested one million dollars before undertaking any activities.
The Israeli businessman later visited Iran a second time in August and received 5,000 Euros as part of the start of his undertaking financial, logistics, and weapons-related actions for accomplishing the plot, including potentially converting a Mossad agent into a double agent.
During the second visit to Iran in August, he was smuggled again into Iran from Turkey, this time in a truck, and met again with Edi, though this time also with multiple other unidentified Iranian security officials. During this meeting, they asked him to assist with the assassination plots.
The Israeli businessman was also requested to take videos of certain Israeli sites for surveillance and intelligence gathering purposes as well as to deliver threats to Israeli citizens who Iran had contacted to carry out missions that were not complying with Iranian directives.
During the second visit to Iran in August, he was smuggled again into Iran from Turkey, this time in a truck, and met again with Edi, though this time also with multiple other unidentified Iranian security officials. During this meeting, they asked him to assist with the assassination plots.
The Israeli businessman initially had requested one million dollars before undertaking any activities.
Two birds, one Israeli
Also, during the second visit to Iran, the Iranians asked the businessman if he would be able to recruit Russians and Americans who could be used to kill Iranian figures opposed to the regime who live in Europe and the US.
The Shin Bet did not provide any indications that the Israeli businessman made any significant progress toward any of the terror activities. Still, it did stress that any involvement with hostile Iranians, let alone in Iranian territory itself, during a time of war, was viewed as a very serious security crime.
Further, the Shin Bet said that Iran appeared to be continuing a hard push for such terror activities, such that uncovering this one plot did not bring an end to the danger.
The businessman was indicted on Thursday.
Shin Bet opaque timing
It was unclear why the Shin Bet published the disclosure on Thursday, two days after it published the attempt by Hezbollah to assassinate former defense minister Moshe Yaalon.
In addition, it was unclear if there was any coordination between Iran and Hezbollah regarding the various plots or a delineation of who would target who.
Questioned about the timing, the Shin Bet initially responded that the cases were published based on when the indictments were being filed and when the relevant courts lifted the gag order relating to them.
The Jerusalem Post noted that the Shin Bet and law enforcement have significant control over the timing of filing indictments and requesting lifting gag orders, and as such the initial answer did not really answer the question. The Post is still waiting for further clarifications.
Turkish co-operation
Questioned about whether Turkish authorities are cooperating with Israel against its citizens involved in the plot – which it has sometimes in the past – the Shin Bet had not yet responded.
Issues of cooperation between Israel and Turkish authorities are extremely sensitive, though Ankara has publicized some such cooperation in the past when Iran tried to kill Jews inside Turkey, and the Mossad helped Turkish authorities thwart the plot.
end
RUSSIA/IRAN
Russian President approves proposal to conclude comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran – SabaNet
Portage, Michigan – With heavy hearts, we announce the passing of Jana (Porter) VanAntwerp on September 4, 2024, in Portage, MI at the age of 70. Jana attended Lansing Community College for a time before ultimately pursuing her passion for nursing. Jana obtained her Licensed Practical Nurse degree from Southwest Michigan College in 1984. Jana’s dedication to the nursing profession was unwavering; she made important contributions and was recognized for her expertise and dedication.
If you like “News from Underground” (or hate it, but get something out of it), please read this post.
Christi G. Holford, 50
September 14, 2024
Indianapolis, Indiana – Christi G. Holford, “Fuzzy Head”, passed away on September 10, 2024, in Indianapolis, Indiana, at the age of 50. Christi was a 1994 graduate of Pendleton Heights High School and furthered her education at Texas A&M. She embarked on a fulfilling career in nursing, initially becoming a registered nurse in Texas, where she worked at DeTar Hospital in Victoria, Texas. After the loss of her beloved husband, Dean Holford, Christi returned to her home state and took a position at St. John’s Hospital. She discovered her true passion in psychiatric nursing and later thrived as a traveling psychiatric nurse, touching many lives with her care and compassion.
Jennifer Lynne Stucker, age 50, of Pleasureville, KY, passed this life on Saturday, September 14, 2024, at the Norton Brownsboro Hospital in Louisville, KY. Jennifer received her Bachelors of Science in Nursing from Indiana Wesleyan College and formerly worked as a registered nurse at Signature Healthcare in Lawrenceburg, KY.
Oak Ridge, Tennessee – Debra Hagen Speelman, 69, passed away on September 4, 2024, in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. Debbie was a proud alumna of Oak Ridge High School and St. Mary’s Nursing School. Her career, spanning over 40 years as a Registered Nurse, saw her touch countless lives.
Laura Marie Walker of Winchester, Virginia, went home to be with the Lord Jesus on August 25, 2024. She was 55. Laura was a registered nurse at the Winchester Medical Center for 25 years, including the last seven where she loved caring for her patients at the Valley Health Surgery Center.
Mrs. Christina Suzanne “Christy” Brooks Campbell, age 54, of Armuchee, GA, passed away on Saturday, September 14, 2024, at a local hospital. She was a Registered Nurse and had worked for Floyd Hospital and later at Floyd Home Health.
Roselle Park, NJ – Michele Kelleher, 60, of Roselle Park, formerly of Bayonne, passed away peacefully on Thursday September 12th at Overlook Hospital in Summit. Michele worked as a Registered Nurse for Christ Hospital in Jersey City for many years.
Louisville, Kentucky – Jeanette Clark Portaro, age 68, passed away peacefully at home on Monday, September 10, 2024. Jeanette was a 1974 graduate of Hardin County High School and a retired registered nurse for Kosair Children’s Hospital and Hosparus of Louisville. She was a member of the Brain Injury Alliance of Kentucky, and a Gilda’s Club volunteer.
Gouverneur, New York – Jennifer Lynn Hay, age 48, of Gouverneur, passed away on September 11, 2024, at Carthage Area Hospital. She graduated from Gouverneur Central School in 1993 and worked for Kemper Insurance in Syracuse for five years and in customer service for an Insurance Company in Star Lake. Most recently she worked as the School Nurse for Gouverneur Central School District. Donations in Jennifer’s memory may be made to the Pancreatic Cancer Fund.
Delmar, New York – Virginia Lynn Petersen, better known as Ginny, passed awayunexpectedly at the age of 43 on August 26, 2024. Ginny attended Maria College and graduated with an Associates Degree in Nursing in 2011. She began her career at Albany Medical Center, where she worked in the Emergency Department, and then went on to the CCU Unit, where her career thrived. In 2018, Ginny became a Travel Nurse and relocated to California. She played a pivotal role during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Madison, Mississippi – Mary was born and raised in Brookhaven, Mississippi (which was always “home” to her), where she graduated from Brookhaven High School, then earned her Bachelor’s in nursing from the University of Southern Mississippi. Mary spent most of her adult life in the Raleigh, NC, area and had a successful career, originally as a nurse, and then managing teams and bringing innovative treatments to patients. Mary was a devoted and incredibly loyal mother, wife, friend, and colleague, and was a true Southern Lady who fought a long and courageous cancer battle with grace.
Melrose, NY – Margaret “Margo” Walsh Perras, 62, of River Rd., passed away Thursday September 12, 2024 at Albany Medical Center. Margo has been a Registered Nurse for 38 years.
Pasadena, Maryland – Bethany Biddie Jane Belcher, 65, a lifelong resident of Maryland, passed away Tuesday, September 10, 2024, in her home. She earned her Bachelor of Science in Nursing from the University of Maryland and worked as a Psychiatric Nurse for Sheppard Pratt until her retirement after five years of service.
Beaufort, South Carolina – Denice Mary Cowan LeMire, 57, wife of Steven P. LeMire, of Beaufort, SC, died Friday, September 13, 2024, at her residence. Denise started her college education at Lansing Community College and obtained a degree in registered nursing. She began her professional career as a nurse and worked in private practice, Ingham Hospital ER and Michigan State University pediatrics.
Karen Hildreth Chassey Aytes, 66, of Charleston, SC, lost her battle to cancer on Friday, September 13, 2024. Following graduation from nursing school at MUSC, she pursued her degree as an OB Nurse for over 30 years before advancing to clinical documentation.
Princeton, North Carolina – Crystal Dawn Benson Bishop, 46, passed awayat her home on Thursday, September 12, 2024. Crystal was a good-hearted soul; she had the aspirations to be a nurse since she was 10 years old. She fulfilled that dream at Barton College and went to work at Rex Hospital in the intensive care unit for 12 years.
Watseka, Illinois – Tina Louise Gooding, 58, of Watseka, passed away on Wednesday, September 11, 2024 at her home. Tina was a nurse for over 30 years, followed by five years as the Administrator of Sheldon Nursing Home. Memorials may be made to Iroquois Memorial Hospice, Watseka Athletic Booster Club, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital or American Cancer Society.
Jeffersonville, Indiana – Sara Ann McCarroll, age 51, passed away peacefully on September 12, 2024, after a courageous battle with cancer, surrounded by her loving family. Sara was a registered nurse who dedicated her life to the service of others. Her expertise, gained from earning her Bachelor of Science in Nursing (BSN), was matched only by her deep empathy and commitment to the well-being of her patients.
attempts! They are placing targets on Trump’s back by calling him Hitler & dangerous yet Biden is in charge of his security? They wish to win at the end of assassin bullet & not the polls? Is it SS or
an insider in Trump’s inner most circle who leaked his location? Has to be…one of them leaked…they are the only ones who knew exactly where the shooter was to hang out for 12 hours until Trump got there.
Who?
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Again, I say a 3rd time they will try to kill Trump, it is not done yet…
We have to protect him…a man was shot at Butler and this moron, this insipid idiot Psaki said Trump’s words ‘fight fight fight’ was a major concern and scared them! These bitches will not stop, they are going to try to shoot him again, bomb him, do him something…
What do you think? Who leaked?
No doubt as mentioned these beasts want to kill him and will not stop until…remember, the CIA’s MK Ultra’s assassin training program.
His safety now is paramount.
Who hired Routh? CIA? Foreign government? DeSantis showed real leadership here for I have understood that Florida can do it’s own prosecution…
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Hemoglobinuria & was required to receive vaccines for tetanus, meningitis & pneumonia prior to a blood transfusion. Same type of reactions MALONE et al. mRNA gene vaccine caused RFK Jr. spoke out on!
This is a terribly tragic case of clear vaccine injury and what we screamed to get the Malone Sahin Weissman et al. mRNA gene-based vaccine stopped in toto!
Thank you RFK Jr. for your stance against bad vaccines in general, unsafe vaccines, and importantly, the Malone Bourla et al. mRNA gene vaccine. Your voice is needed here.
‘Key Takeaways
Alexis received vaccines for tetanus, meningitis, and pneumonia before a blood transfusion at UCI Medical Center.
Alexis was raised in an anti-vaccination family.
She is now in the ICU and will be transferred to another hospital.
Alexis Lorenze, aka Lex Vuitton, gained widespread attention for documenting her harrowing medical experience following a vaccine treatment for a condition called Paroxysmal Nocturnal Hemoglobinuria (PNH).’
I ask you to support Breggins’ scholarship. They are one of few real vanguards of America’s fight for freedom! I remain loyal friends to these beautiful people! See & support Karen Kingston’s work!
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
VENEZUELA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1158 UP 0.0084
USA/ YEN 142.89 DOWN 0.201 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE FINISHED
GBP/USA 1.3294 UP 0087
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3554 DOWN 0053 (CDN DOLLAR UP 853BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16,74 PTS OR .89%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 353.14 PTS OR 2.00%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.63%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 353.14 PTS OR 2.00%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 18.74 PTS OR .89%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.63%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 775.16 POINTS OR 2.13%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2589,40
silver:$31,20
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.71 UP 10 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
Yesterday’s pump-and-dumps across most major asset-classes was met with a wall of BTFDing in Asia, Europe, and then the US which lifted stocks, gold, oil, and crypto prices (and bonds yields) in a delayed gratification day.
In fact, this is first time that yields rise after a 50bps cut since Lehman (Oct 2008).
It was ‘Risk On’ in equity-land, post the 50bps cut and the start of the easing cycle with Tech leading to the upside. Broad-based rally with >375 names up on the day in the S&P.
Nasdaq and Small Caps led the surge in stocks (the chart below is from 1400ET yesterday – to include the pump and dump around The Fed and Powell). The Dow is the laggard for now (up only 1%)…
Goldman’s trading desk pointed out that volumes +20% today vs the 20dma and ETFs capturing close to 33% of the tape (but they highlight that top of book liquidity stands out as extremely poor, tracking -60% vs the 20dma).
We are active across rate-sensitive pockets of the mkt, specifically Fins (REITS + large cap) and Utes.
LOs are much better buys (1b net demand) led by Tech, Fins, Macro products, and Hcare.
HFs are net for sale, with supply concentrated in pockets of Discretionary, Fins, and Comms Svcs.
The basket of Mag7 Stocks surged back up to record highs today…
Source: Bloomberg
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks squeezed higher at the open but rolled over for the rest of the day to end only marginally higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Interestingly, rate-cut expectations to year-end 2024 (and 2025) are lower post-Fed crisis-cut. The market still expects 3 more cuts in 2024 though (and four more on top of that in 2025)
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were mixed today with the short-end outperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
…extending the bear-steepening in the yield curve from yesterday’s Powell comments. 2s10s is now at its steepest since June 2022 (notably disinverted)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bloomberg’s Alyce Andres notes that comments from The Fed supported bear steepening of the US Treasury curve. Here are 10 reasons why bond investors believe the Fed’s actions telegraphed a hawkish cut:
In its statement, the Fed said the assessment of current conditions showed job growth slowed versus moderated previously. That means the Fed views labor market growth as now having a reduced speed. It also compares to a reduction in size, strength and force it described in June.
The Fed’s language around inflation was firmer. It eliminated the characterization about inflation easing in recent months and over the past year. Instead, the Fed emphasized it remains elevated.
The Fed continued to delay the end of QT. This coupled with the 50-bps cut signaled that the central bank clearly sees moves in the policy rate and balance sheet as independent.
Dissention from Governor Michelle Bowman, a Fed hawk, in favor of a smaller cut.
The dot plot showed a narrow majority favored lowering rates by an additional half-point this year over a 25-bps cut.
The longer run median dot rose to 2.9% from 2.8%. That’s the dot the Fed will use as its anchor.
Forecasts were optimistic with the median dot for growth at 2% over all time frames and longer-run unemployment and inflation steady at 4.2% and 2%, respectively.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is basically fine, telegraphing a broadly optimistic view with a hawkish emphasis on the fact that the Fed isn’t in a rush to lower rates.
Bond investors voted with their feet — opting to take profits on wagers for lower rates. Traders also threw in the towel on bull steepeners in favor of bearish ones viewing the 50-bps rate cut as a recalibration of monetary policy rather than a sign of concern about the health of the labor market.
That move continued Thursday with global investors adding to bear steepener positions under the notion that the Fed is likely to stick the soft landing.
The dollar chopped around today, hitting highs in the early Asia session and lows in the early European session before bouncing back to practically unch…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ripped higher today, testing up towards one-month highs at $64,000, right at the 200DMA (after breaking above the 50- and 100-DMA)…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum outperformed Bitcoin for the first time in nine days…
Crude prices continued their sawtooth rally back from three year lows with WTI breaking above $72…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, bonds and stocks remain in worlds of their own since the last FOMC meeting in July…
Source: Bloomberg
Which happens first? S&P back down to 5200, or 10Y yield up to 4.2%?
END
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Plunge In Jobless Claims Exposes Apolitical Fed-Cut ‘Policy Error’ Further
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 08:40 AM
The day after The Fed slashes rates by a crisis-like 50bps, jobless claims data plunges to multi-month lows signaling an economy that is anything but ‘soft landing’ let alone landing at all…
Adjusted initial claims tumbled from 231k to 219k (lowest since May) while unadjusted claims continued to tumble to 12-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
Continuing claims also continued its (economically positive) downtrend, sliding from 1.843mm to 1.829mm Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, wtf is going on here…
Source: Bloomberg
While the official unemployment rate dipped modestly from three-year highs, jobless claims have crashed to near record lows.
Does that really look like an economy that needs a 50bps rate-cut?As one market veteran pointed out to us this morning, “either The Fed is a bunch of idiots, or this data is total bullshit.” Fact of the matter is, Powell even admitted – after bringing up the massive revision to the payrolls data – that it is more likely the latter (bullshit data) than the former (idiots); though we suspect it’s a bit of both (blending with some political pressure).
end
This data point tells it correctly: homes just too expensive for citizens
(zerohedge)
US Existing Home Sales Tumble Back Near 14-Year Lows In August
Thursday, Sep 19, 2024 – 10:12 AM
With Housing Starts and Building Permits jumping exuberantly on the heels of declining mortgage rates (and mortgage applications spiking), today’s existing home sales data for August should be an interesting barometer for just how crazy The Fed’s decision to slash rates by 50bps was (with home prices at record highs and rising fast).
Perhaps shocking to some, existing home sales disappointed in August, dropping 2.5% MoM (vs -1.3% MoM exp) leaving sales down 4.22% YoY.
Source: Bloomberg
There hasn’t been a positive YoY sales comp since July 2021 as the existing home sales SAAR dropped to its lowest since Oct 2023 (just a smidge above the weakest since 2010)…
Source: Bloomberg
“Home sales were disappointing again in August, but the recent development of lower mortgage rates coupled with increasing inventory is a powerful combination that will provide the environment for sales to move higher in future months,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said in a statement.
Interestingly , mortgage applications are soaring higher on the back of tumbling mortgage rates (at their lowest since Sept 2022)…
Source: Bloomberg
Which were enabled by The Fed jawboning the new rate-cutting cycle (and now actuating its crisis-level 50bps cut).
The trouble is, home prices are already at record highs as the rate-cutting cycle begins. The median sales price, meantime, increased 3.1% in the year through August, to $416,700. That was the highest for any August in NAR data.
Source: Bloomberg
A lack of inventory had been a notable headwind, with many would-be sellers unwilling to put their homes on the market and give up their sub-3% mortgage rates. This so-called lock-in effect has reduced sales by about a million homes a year, Yun has said.
“The rise in inventory – and, more technically, the accompanying months’ supply – implies home buyers are in a much-improved position to find the right home and at more favorable prices,” Yun added.
“However, in areas where supply remains limited, like many markets in the Northeast, sellers still appear to hold the upper hand.”
In August, NAR’s figures showed 60% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 62% in July.
And 20% sold above the list price, compared with 24% a month earlier.
First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases, matching an all-time low.
Individual investors or second-home buyers purchased 19% of homes, compared with 16% a year ago.
Who will get the blame for lack of affordability now?
Source: Bloomberg
If Trump wins, the answer to that is easy. If Kamala wins, it is corporate greed, durr (and on a side note, prices are soaring alongside inventories… not exactly helping the case for Kamala’s ‘Make Housing Affordable Again’ plan!)
end
U.S. leading-economic-indicators index drops for sixth straight monthIndex declines by 0.2% vs. forecast of a fall of 0.3%
MarketWatch
Sept. 19, 2024 at 10:09?a.m. ET
The numbers: The leading indicators for the U.S. economy sank 0.2% in August, the privately run Conference Board said Thursday. That is the sixth straight monthly decline.
The leading index is a composite of 10 forward-looking components designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal had forecast a 0.3% drop in the index in August.
Key details: A measure of coincident economic conditions rose 0.3% in August after a revised 0.1% drop in July.
A Conference Board–calculated measure of lagging indicators was unchanged in August after a 0.1% fall in July.
Big picture: Recession fears have picked up over the summer as the labor market has stumbled. The Federal Reserve’s most recent Beige Book showed that two-thirds of Fed districts reported flat or declining activity.
However, the most recent data, including retail sales for September, have eased some of the concern.
The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker expects U.S. growth to accelerate to a 2.9% rate in the third quarter.
The Fed cut its policy interest rate by a half-percentage point on Wednesday, in part to ward off a dramatic slowdown in economic activity.
What the Conference Board said: The economy will lose momentum in the second half of this year, as higher prices, elevated interest rates and mounting debt erode domestic demand, said Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, senior manager of business-cycle indicators at the Conference Board.
The Fed’s projection of 50 more basis points in rate reductions this year should lower borrowing costs and support stronger activity next year, she added.
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
AURORA/COLORADO/VENEZUELAN GANGS
Aurora Police Offer Help To Apartment Complexes Amid Venezuelan Gang Issues
The city of Aurora, Colorado, wants to assign police officers to apartment complexes where alleged gang members from Venezuela have resided, but the property owner has yet to accept the offer.
Jason Batchelor, Aurora city manager, has offered to assign off-duty police officers to work at two CBZ Management properties from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m., Monday through Friday.
A city spokesman said this would give CBZ Management more peace of mind as they are encouraged to manage their properties again.
“They have so far not taken us up on that offer,” the spokesman told The Epoch Times on Sept. 17.
“They also continue to be uncooperative with [the Aurora Police Department] on the various criminal cases that occurred at or are tied to their properties going back several months.
“The long-term future of the properties is still to be determined.”
The Epoch Times reached out to CBZ Management for comment but didn’t receive a response by publication time. The New York City-based company owns 11 properties in New York and 11 in Colorado, with a average monthly rent of $1,450 to $2,000.
City officials say claims in social media that the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua (TdA) is taking over apartment complexes are overstated.
Mayor Mike Coffman and council member Danielle Jurinsky recently issued a statement that sought to “clear the record” about violent gang activity and the city’s response.
“We reiterate that the safety, security, and well-being of community members and visitors is of paramount concern to us and the city,” the officials wrote.
“As for the perception and reality of public safety in Aurora, please understand that issues experienced at a select few properties do not apply to the city as a whole or significant portions of it.”
Tren de Aragua (TdA) “has not ’taken over the city,’” the officials wrote.
“The overstated claims fueled by social media and through select news organizations are simply not true. TdA’s presence in Aurora is limited to specific properties, all of which the city has been addressing in various ways for months.”
In a previous interview with The Epoch Times, Coffman said that TdA was present in Aurora, but that it was “isolated.”
Jurinsky had told The Epoch Times: “They are terrorizing other Venezuelan migrants. They are terrorizing the American people.”
“It’s been ignored. The city had downplayed this as code violations at properties. The people have been lied to. I have been lied to. I finally decided I’d had enough and that I was going to expose this on my own.”
Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) spokesman Mike Alvarez told The Epoch Times that the agency is aware of TdA activities across the United States.
“HSI is aware of recent violent crime and arrests involving individuals allegedly associated with Tren de Aragua gang and continues to monitor emerging trends and assist partner law enforcement agencies in more than 34 regions throughout the United States and around the globe,” Alvarez said in an email.
In February, the Aurora City Council voted 7–3 in favor of a resolution that said Aurora was not a sanctuary city and lacked the resources to support migrants.
On Aug. 29, a surveillance video that went viral showed TdA members carrying guns and entering at least one apartment complex in Aurora, a suburb of Denver with 393,537 residents.
Coffman recently posted on Facebook that he went to several apartment complexes where the gang is said to be active.
The mayor said he walked through buildings at 12th Avenue and Dallas Street.
He also went through every floor of another “troubled” apartment complex owned by CBZ Management located at 13th Avenue and Helena Street without incident.
“Like the Dallas and 12th Street properties, there is no onsite property manager there to collect the rent and to coordinate maintenance on the property, and, like the Dallas property, the tenants were predominantly newly arrived Venezuelans,” Coffman wrote.
Coffman said the goal is to secure both apartment complexes so that management can take better care of the properties.
“Shutting down the properties, under our Criminal Nuisance ordinance, is the last resort that I hope we don’t have to use,” he said.
In the meantime, Coffman said the city manager made an offer to the property owner to assign two police officers to each of the properties for two weeks if the owner assumes responsibility for onsite management.
“If the owner does not assume responsibility for these properties and start providing routine services, like trash removal, the city will be forced to close both apartment complexes as a last resort,” Coffman wrote.
The city recently went before a judge, asking for a court order to shut down apartment complexes deemed nuisances by city ordinance.
Aurora Police Department recently created a special task force to work with federal law enforcement to assess and interrupt alleged Venezuelan gang activity.
Police Make Arrests
On Sept. 11, the department released a summary containing a photo lineup of documented TdA members arrested on felony charges, including violence, burglary, and attempted murder.
“We release information when it is accurate, confirmed, and does not jeopardize ongoing investigations,” Aurora Police Department agent Matthew Longshore told The Epoch Times in an email.
According to the statement, the department has been “actively investigating reports that members of the Venezuelan prison gang, Tren de Aragua, have been living in Aurora and committing acts of violence against members of the migrant community.”
The Aurora Police Department said the summary reflects the department’s “actions and authority alone.”
The statement lists each suspect by name and includes a booking photo and a summary of alleged offenses.
Larry Medina, 29, was arrested on July 10 on charges of felony menacing and attempted second-degree burglary in the incident at Whispering Pines Condominiums.
Jhonardy Pacheco-Chirinos, 22, was arrested on a first-degree assault warrant.
Pacheco-Chirinos is also a suspect in the July 28 nonfatal shooting at an apartment complex.
Other confirmed Tren de Aragua members include Dejesus Pacheco-Chirinos, 24, who is charged with attempted first-degree murder, first-degree aggravated assault, illegal discharge of a firearm, and reckless endangerment at the Nome Street building on July 29.
Luis Miguel Calzadilla-Rojas, 24, is charged with attempted first-degree murder, accessory to homicide, and trying to influence a public servant following a daytime shooting that occurred in front of the Arapahoe County Probation Office.
Yoendry Vilchez Medina-Jose, 33, was charged with felony menacing and third-degree assault in connection with the November 2023 incident at Whispering Pines.
Juan Carlos Mejia-Espana, 27, was charged with second-degree kidnapping, felony menacing, false imprisonment, third-degree assault, child abuse, and domestic violence stemming from a domestic dispute at Whispering Pines in March.
Carlos Aranguren-Mayora, 23, was charged with robbery, theft between $5,000 and $20,000, second-degree burglary, felony menacing, criminal mischief, first-degree burglary, first-degree kidnapping, second-degree kidnapping, robbery, aggravated robbery, motor vehicle theft, obstruction in connection with several alleged offenses committed in the Denver metropolitan area.
Robert Daniel Mora-Marquez, 23, is charged with aggravated first-degree assault, second-degree kidnapping, third-degree assault, felony menacing, illegal discharge of a firearm, harassment, and reckless endangerment following an April 4 dispute and assault over unpaid rent money at an apartment building block in Lima Street.
Mora-Marquez is also a suspect in the nonfatal shooting on June 28 in an apartment block on Nile Street.
Jose Miguel Reyes-Perez, 30, is charged with aggravated assault, felony menacing, and motor vehicle theft stemming after police executed an arrest warrant on May 22.
Yorman Camilo Sangronis-Garcia was included in the police notice but without a photo as he hasn’t been charged. He is known to law enforcement as “a TdA member.”
In late 2023, the city shut down an apartment building on Nome Street for “code violations” following reports of alleged gang activity.
Gang Targeted
In July, the Biden–Harris administration said it would take new steps to stop Tren de Aragua, a group of international criminals that originated in Venezuelan prison gang culture.
These actions included the U.S. Department of the Treasury blocking “all property and interests in property” in the United States and the Department of Justice offering a $12 million reward for the arrest of Tren de Aragua leaders.
The Epoch Times contacted the Biden administration and the Department of Homeland Security for comment.
end
MICHIGAN/AUTOWORKERS/
UAW workers are now blaming Biden and Harris for job losses, The EV mandates are killing jobs
(zerohedge)
UAW Workers Blame Biden, Harris And EV Mandates For Job Losses
Wednesday, Sep 18, 2024 – 07:40 PM
While we know how professional extortionist union negotiator Shawn Fain at the top ranks of the UAW wants his workers to vote, the way they’re going to vote might be a different story altogether.
After Stellantis, maker of Chrysler, Jeep, and Dodge, announced plans to lay off 2,450 workers, workers told the Post they thought the Biden administration was to blame.
“I’m sure all the people I work with are glad to have jobs. But the problem is in these electric-vehicle departments, you’re laying people off,” one worker, Isaiah Gordon, who works on hybrid batteries said.
He added:
“It’s the way that the government now wants to go. And they completely made the wrong decisions on it because if you look, Ford has lost a lot of money.”
A technician mechanic for Chrysler agreed that EVs were driving the layoffs, stating: “Putting an electric motor together is like building a pinwheel or a paper airplane, there’s some level of work that’s involved with it, but the skill level really isn’t there.”
Republican congresswoman Lisa McClain agreed, adding: “Less parts mean less employees. That’s why they’re doing the layoffs. Because they can’t sell the vehicles that the government, particularly Kamala Harris, is mandating them to buy.”
She continued: “Listen, you wanna buy an EV car? Great. But the autoworkers, the automakers know that we can’t survive because the infrastructure isn’t there on EVs. Nobody wants to buy them.”
The New York Post writes that Ford cut over 1,000 jobs at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center in Dearborn after reducing F-150 Lightning production. The company reported a $132,000 loss per vehicle in the first quarter, selling 20% fewer EVs than last year.
Workers say layoffs aren’t just due to reduced labor but also the tough emissions standards from the Biden-Harris administration. These strict EPA regulations push the industry to produce more EVs, despite lower consumer demand, according to the Post.
“You look at a product like a Ford hybrid Escape, a hybrid electric vehicle, and it’s one of the smaller SUVs. It’s barely a car. And the carbon footprint of that, the grams per mile is 225. So you’ve got a vehicle there that is 55 grams per mile in excess of the standard that will be here in two model years,” the mechanic complained.
“I can tell you they’ve been promising investment where I work at the tech center for years now, and I’ll just put it this way: it doesn’t appear to be happening. They can promise one thing and change that plan tomorrow.”
“It’s getting to the point that they’re leasing additional properties and parking them elsewhere. And it’s all three domestics,” he concluded.
And the change in opinion seems to be driving political divide between the UAW and its leadership. Gordon concluded: “Unfortunately, and I say this with love, the UAW is not going to reach across the aisle. They support the Democrats and the Democratic Party.”
END
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
TUCKER CARLSON….
SWAMP STORIES
FBI Reveals That Iran Hacked Trump Campaign Materials And Gave Them To Biden/Harris
The AP is reporting that the FBI has uncovered evidence that Iranian hackers stole materials from the Trump campaign in the Summer and provided them to what was then the Biden/Harris campaign.
The report notes that the emails were sent to “people who were associated with Biden’s campaign” in June and July when he was still the Democratic nominee.
The FBI uncovered the “unsolicited” evidence as part of its efforts to investigate election interference.
The emails “contained an excerpt taken from stolen, non-public material from former President Trump’s campaign as text in the emails,” a government statement noted.
It is not known if the Biden/Harris campaign reviewed the materials.
Hilariously, however, the Harris campaign issued a statement saying that they were “victims” of the hack.
Last night in New York, Trump referred to the development, calling it “foreign election interference,” and charging that “Biden is working with Iran.”
It is clear that there is a concerted effort to undermine Trump’s campaign, with officials revealing in August that further internal communications were hacked and provided to at least three media organisations, with the perpetrators suspected to be Iranian hackers.
As we previously highlighted, the Secret Service also uncovered an assassination plot against Trump by Iran on the same weekend as the Butler shooting in July.
ESZs traded mostly positive but sideways from the Nikkei opening until the range expanded after the 2 ET China close. ESZs hit a high of 5711.50 at 8:38 ET. They then commenced a sharp decline that took ESZs to a daily low of 5682.25 at 12:01 ET.
Buying for the FOMC Communique release and the 14:15 ET VIX Fix settlement rig propelled ESZs to 5705.50 at 12:45 ET. After a retreat to 5698.75 at 13:24 ET, ESZs exploded higher for the 14:00 ET FOMC Communique release and the hoped for 50bp rate cut. ESZs hit a new high of 5712.00 at 13:36 ET, but sellers appeared; ESZs sank to 5697.00 at 13:56 ET. ESZs then rallied to 5704.00 at 13:59 ET.
FOMC Communique HighlightsThe Fed cut rates by 50bps as Fed Funds traders projected.The Fed forecasts another 50bps in cuts this year and 50 next year. (Had been 125bps for 2024)Sees rates at 4.4% at end of 2024, 3.4% in 2025Fed says risks to inflation and employment are in balanceFed Gov. Bowman dissented, voted for a 25bp rate cut, the 1st dissent since 2005.Sees Unemployment at 4.4% and PCE at 2.3% at end of 2024.The Fed has greater confidence inflation is moving toward 2%. (Change from last communique)The Fed is “supporting maximum employment…” (Change from last time, Max election politics)https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240918a.htm (Communique changes): https://x.com/faststocknewss/status/1836492776390926464/photo/1
Physical gold soared to a record high of 2600.1575; bonds declined sharply, ‘tis a forecast of inflation!
Powell Press Conference Highlights“Our economy is strong overall.” (Then the rate cut is a political decision, Jerry!)Labor market conditions have cooled; the economy continues to expand at a solid pace.Consumer spending has been resilient. (Why cut 50bps then?)Expect GDP growth to remain solid.The labor market is not a source of inflationary pressures.Inflation has eased but remains above our 2% goal.Inflation expectations remain well anchored.”We see the risks to our mandate as balanced.” (Then why cut 50bps?)The Fed is NOT on any preset course. Powell Q&A HighlightsCNBC’s Leisman: July inflation data was higher than expected, why the 50bp cut?Powell to Leisman: (Word salad) “Payroll data may be artificially high,” may be revised lowerWill make decisions meeting by meeting.The labor market is in a solid position, and we cut 50bps to keep it there. (for the election)Don’t think we are behind the curve; the 50bp cut shows we are determined not to lag.No one should think 50bp cut is the new pace.Not thinking about halting balance sheet runoff“The time to support the labor market is when it’s strong,” not when it falters.The influx of immigrants has been a factor in rising unemployment.The Fed is NOT declaring victory over inflation.“Housing inflation is the one piece” that is slowing the decline in inflation.The Fed cannot fix housing supply market; hard to game out rate cut effects on housing.Our decisions are never about politics.“It feels to me the neutral rate is probably significantly higher than it was back then.” (ZIRP era)We’re not serving any politician, any political figure, any cause, any issue…Powell admitted there was a ‘range of dissent’ regarding the 50bp cut. (>Bowman) ESZs gyrated during Powell’s presser, as we warned. ESZs tanked during Powell’s Q&A, hitting 5701.50 at 14:45 ET. After a rebound to 5728.75 at 14:54 ET, ESZs tumbled to 5683.75 at 14:05 ET. After a bounce to 5716.00 at 15:14 ET, ESZs fell. The drop accelerated after Powell ended his Q&A at 15:20 ET. ESZs hit 5685.50 at 15:21 ET. It was time for the expiry manipulation with Fed Day over.
ESZs were manipulated to 5726.75 at 15:28 ET. Alas, too many traders were long for Fed Day. ESZs sank to a new daily low of 5675.25 at 15:48 ET. ESZs tried to rally but failed.
Most importantly, USZs rebounded to 126 24/32 at 14:32 ET (Powell presser at 14:30 ET), and then plunged to a daily low of 125 19/32 at 15:21 ET. Mr. Bond is not happy with Powell. Ironically, the bond market could tighten financial conditions while the Fed is trying to loosen them. This is the reverse of what has transpired for over a year. And this is a negative consequence of the Fed’s post-2008-2009 implementation of ‘guidance’ as a tool to get Wall Street to buy stocks and bonds.
Powell, the Fed, and its stooges claim, ‘the Fed is trying to protect the economy.’ But Dems and the media proclaim that the US economy is strong. A 50bp rate cut less than 7 weeks before a general election appears to be a political decision. You can expect Trump to bash Powell and the Fed over this.
PS – There are allegations circulating that ‘Powell did a Draghi’ and strongarmed members into a decision that they did not support and did not want to make. Bowman gave cover to other dissenters.
Stocks tend to decline 3-12 months after Fed rate cuts, except when the Fed is bailing out the system (1980 Hunts Brother fiasco, 1998 LTCM and Russia failure) https://t.co/uqrCczdLIJ
@Geiger_Capital: Last 2 times the Fed’s first cut was 50+ bps: Jan 3, 2001 – S&P 500 fell ~39% next 448 days – Unemployment rose another 2.1% – Recession Sep 18, 2007 – S&P 500 fell ~54% next 372 days – Unemployment rose another 5.3% – Recession https://x.com/Geiger_Capital/status/1836477991192531210
Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and S&P 500 Index hit all-time highs. The DJIA rallied sharply.
Negative aspects of previous session USZs hit a low of 115 19/32, -1 9/32; gold hit an all-time high. ESZs and stocks tumbled after an initial spurt on the 50bp rate cut. ESZs and stocks hit daily lows during the final 10 minutes of trading.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What is the real reason that the Fed cut rates 50bps?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5641.03 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5689.75; 5615.08
@ABC: More than 60,000 tickets have been requested for former Pres. Trump’s rally at Nassau Coliseum in Long Island, New York (Deep Blue State) — a venue that only has seating for 16,000.
@TripleNetInvest: This is absolutely stunning… Office buildings totaling 633k sq ft in downtown Minneapolis just sold for $6M or a shocking $10 per sq ft. The price represents a 91% ‘discount’ to what the seller bought the towers for – $74M in 2019! The meltdown in class B/C office properties across the US is beyond wild so stay tuned for more updates just like this…
Yankee part owner @patrickbetdavid: The myth of the rich not paying their fair share in taxes. Bottom 50% only pays 2.3% of total income taxes paid. Top 50% pays 97.7%. And the top 1% pays 42.3%. Meanwhile, Kamala’s new plan to tax 25% of $100m+ unrealized capital gains would destroy all the 401ks andpension plans in America. Elections and bad policies have consequences. https://t.co/FDZiPO74IQ
@economics: The Bank of England is likely to decide against cutting interest rates for a second straight meeting; keep rates at 5%… Traders await BOE decision on how fast to run down QE assets
Today – Fed Day upward bias is over; and traders must adjust to a small rate Fed rate cut projection, by 25bps, for 2024. This leaves only the expiry manipulation as an upward trading impetus. If bonds continue to sink, eventually stock jockeys, who always get it last, will become concerned.
Expected Economic: Initial Jobless Claims 230k, Continuing Claims 1.85m; Q2 Current Account -$260.0B; Sept Phil Fed Business Outlook -0.5; Aug LEI -0.3%; Aug Existing Home Sales 3.9m
NQZs are +178.50; ESZs are +33.00 (on expiry manipulation); and USZs are -15/32 at 20:30 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 5514; 100-day MA: 5423; 150-day MA: 5323; 200-day MA: 5189 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,511; 100-day MA: 39,756; 150-day MA: 39,437; 200-day MA: 38,974 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5618.26 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5274.15 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5486.67 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5618.87 triggers a buy signal
@JesseBWatters: EXCLUSIVE: The American nurse who flagged would-be assassin Ryan Routh to @DHSgov when they were in Ukraine tells Primetime he talked about assassinations ALL THE TIME. Chelsea Walsh says Routh had very volatile tendencies and often talked of harming world leaders, but her calls to the US federal government were left unanswered… https://x.com/JesseBWatters/status/1836203133409648835
At some point, serial malfeasance and negligence implies something far more sinister!
Trump assassination plots expose FBI, Secret Service vulnerabilities and failures “The problem with that we’re sending a signal to the rest of the world and even individuals within our own country who hate President Trump, that these guys, without any training and experience, are getting very close,” Rep. Eli Crane, R-Ariz., told the John Solomon Reports podcast. “And that’s a very dangerous precedent and a very dangerous signal that we are sending to the enemies of President Trump,“… https://justthenews.com/government/security/trump-assassination-plots-expose-fbi-secret-service-vulnerabilities
@ScottWRasmussen: 28% of Democrats say America would have been better off if @RealDonaldTrump had been assassinated. Another 24% are not sure. Fewer than half (48%) of Democrats could bring themselves to say that America would not be better off if the opposing party’s candidate had been assassinated. Additionally, 51% of Democrats oppose increasing former President Trump’s security detail. https://napolitaninstitute.org/2024/09/18/17-say-america-would-be-better-off-if-trump-had-been-killed/ (WOW! Such hatred! The USA is near a breaking point!)
How the Nazi Ministry of Propaganda Radicalized Germany Before the rise of the Nazis, Germany was the most educated society on Earth, producing the finest literature, film, and university programs of any advanced nation. How did it succumb to such a simplistic propaganda program? The answer has to do with the ancient story of propaganda and how the masses swallow almost any message if it’s repeated enough and speaks to their deepest fears. https://podcasts.apple.com/mt/podcast/how-the-nazi-ministry-of-propaganda-radicalized-germany/id1237796990?i=1000462440778
John Kass: Deep State Democrats and the Continuing Attempts to Kill President Trump What triggers the left-wing media? Outrage and their ego… They’re outraged by sarcastic memes about illegal migrants eating cats and geese… But a president murdered before an election? That doesn’t stoke media’s indignation… Hillary Clinton…also blamed the victim… Democrats are constantly on the lookout against victim blaming or shaming, unless the victim is Republican. Clinton argued the most important thing is that the news media is not doing enough to portray Trump as a threat to democracy… If there was a second failed attempt would media blame Obama for pushing left wing policy that most of the country detests? Would they blame Obama and say it’s his fault for provoking the assassin? Crooks’ body was almost immediately cremated and the feds still can’t tell us a motive. They’re obfuscating and covering up…. it is clear there is so much hate directed at President Trump that it seems only a matter of time until they get him… For the last nine years or so, Deep State Democrats and their corporate media lickspittles from Joe Biden and Kamala Harris to those at NBC and MSNBC, ABC, CBS, and the New York Times, The Washington Post, and have argued that Trump is a danger to democracy. That he’s some Hitler. Or a Stalin. He’s an “existential threat,” says Joe Biden. The Republican never-Trumpers want a bullet in him. So do the others, as CNN and the rest of them blame Trump… It’s about the Deep State and control…. The American Deep State has been test marketing whatthey want to Trump and the rest of us for years… carried by the shrill bullhorn of the Deep State’s Democrat Media Complex… It’s obvious to me that Kamala Harris and her fool of a running mate will give free speech up to be crushed. They’ll do exactly what they’ve falsely accused Trump of doing by their juvenile projections that fool no one who has read history and studied politics…Vote like American lives and freedom depend on it. Because they do… https://johnkassnews.com/democrats-the-deep-state-and-president-trump/
@0331online: Elon Musk: “I think it’s very important to elevate citizen journalism. It’s very important to hear the voice of the people. The actual voice of the people, not the filtered voice of people, and let the people choose the narrative, and let the people determine the truth and not five editors-in-chief of major publications.” (‘Tis why ‘they’ hate Musk!) https://x.com/0331online/status/1650050481421701120
@megynkelly: Kamala Harris to NABJ yesterday: “when you are bestowed with a microphone… there is … this concept of public trust, to then understand what the public trust means. It means that you have been invested with trust…” (And ~50% of Americans say they will vote for this?!)
Psychologists reveal why Kamala Harris uses ‘fake accents’ after VP debuts bizarre Spanish twang in latest appearance – two main reasons people alter their accents, which in psychology circles is known as ‘mirroring’ or the ‘chameleon effect.‘… ‘I think there could be an element of Harris trying to gain acceptance across these different demographics. But again, I think it’s backfiring.’… https://trib.al/H7ltgV3
@charliekirk11: Unearthed footage of Kamala reveals the extent of her anti-gun radicalism: “Just because you legally possess a gun in the sanctity of your locked home doesn’t mean that we’re not going to walk into that home and check to see if you’re being responsible.”If she is elected, RIP 2A. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1836429342806806920
@GOBactual: The U.S. Supreme Court unanimously ruled in Hustler v. Falwell (1988), that a parody, which no reasonable person expected to be true, was protected free speech. The justices also stated that upholding the lower courts’ decisions would put all political satire at risk.https://firstamendment.mtsu.edu/article/satire/
It’s been 60 days since Kamala Harris became the Dem Prez nominee, and she still has NOT held a formal press conference. And we all know why!
@EricLDaugh: Quinnipiac in early-October 2020, Pennsylvania: Biden+13 (recent poll has Harris +6; Biden won PA in 2020 by only 1.17% – and that’s after beaucoup early AM mail in ballot chicanery!) @VividProwess: Man with phone: “Netanyahu, did you know that they’re now comparing you to James Bond?” Netanyahu: “Nonsense. It’s Netanyahu; Benjamin Netanyahu.” https://x.com/VividProwess/status/1836341332152824059
@Peoples_Pundit: Trump has a 3-point lead in that AJC Poll for Georgia and the headline is “Tight Race Between Trump and Harris”. Meanwhile, Harris led by 1 point and the national JMC and the headline was “Harris Takes the Lead”… The Atlanta Journal-Constitution final poll in Georgia was only Trump +2 in 2016. It was Clinton +4 at the beginning of September. He won the state 5.1%. The poll today is Trump +3. We’re officially in that “makes no sense” period of the election, driven by the same polls. The top three most important voting issues are cost of living/inflation, economy and jobs, immigration and border security. Trump leads on trust to handle all three. That is fundamental. Economic sentiment is a fundamental. Incumbent job approval is a fundamental.
Despite overwhelming DJT support, the Teamster Executive Board did not support any candidate for the first time in over 30 years. In an egregious lie, the Teamster Board claims they “found no definitive support among members for either party’s nominee.” We all know who runs union leadership! https://teamster.org/2024/09/teamsters-no-endorsement-for-u-s-president/
@seanmdav: Understand what’s happening with the Teamsters: the members all want Donald Trump, but the leadership knows it can’t officially endorse Trump without putting the entire organization at risk due to the bloodlust of the Democrat party at every level in blue states where the Teamsters are most prevalent. So how to deal with that? You announce official neutrality while simultaneously releasing a poll that shows your members love Trump and hate Kamala Harris (and that Harris polls significantly worse than Biden, who was deposed by Democrats). [Teamster DJT VOTING BOOTH support is most likely higher because some members do NOT want to cross Teamster leadership publicly.]
@greg_price11: The Teamsters have endorsed every Democratic presidential candidate since 1996. Over 90% of their political donations since 1990 have gone to the Democrat Party. Kamala is so bad that 60% of Teamsters members are supporting Trump and the union isn’t endorsing her.
@TheCalvinCooli1: Kamala Harris is the first Democratic presidential candidate since Michael Dukakis in 1988 to miss out on the Teamsters’ endorsement.
@Convertbond: What’s the message here???The Teamsters Union, founded in 1903, this is the first year they will NOT endorse a U.S. Presidential candidate.
@EndWokeness: Teamsters union member poll:June: Biden 44%, Trump 36%; Now: Trump 58%, Harris 31%.Without support from union members, Democrats are toast. This is major.
AP — FBI: Iranian hackers sent unsolicited information stolen from Trump campaign to people associated with Biden’s campaign (It’s clear who Iran wants for POTUS!)
Fox has Harris 50, Trump 48. Fox underestimated DJT by 5 in 10/2016 and by 6 in 10/2020.
At his Uniondale, NY speech on Wednesday night, Trump reiterated his usual stuff but surprisingly said the nation needs him to work with Democrats. It appears Trump is softening his rhetoric because Vance has been an aggressive and effect attacker.
Trump: “I’m going to Springfield (Ohio) and I’m going to Aurora (Colorado).” (see immigrant crimes)
Trump tells boisterous Long Island rally he will win New York after assassination plots ‘hardened my resolve’https://trib.al/94SHzjt
harveyorganblog.com 
