SEPT 23//RAID ON OUR PRECIOUS METALS FAIL AGAIN AS GOLD AND PLATINUM RISE; GOLD CLOSED UP $6.65 TO $2627.65//SILVER HOWEVER WAS DOWN $0.39/PLATINUM WAS UP $8.65 TO $962.05 BUT PALLADIUM FELL BY $48.35 TO $1046.95//IF YOU MISSED ANDREW’S TAPE ON FRIDAY,, I URGE YOU TO SEE IT AS IT IS VERY IMPORTANT://EUROPEAN PMI’S PLUMMET//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH MAJOR STORIES TODAY: 16 RADWAN COMMANDERS KILLED/ PLUS OTHER UPDATES/RUSSIAN VS UKRAINE COMMENTARIES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT//SLAY NEWS, EVOL NEWS/NEWS ADDICTS ETC//USA PMIs FOR MFG AND SERVICE PLUMMET AS THE ECONOMY HERE FALTERS BADLY//EXPECT A PORT STRIKE ON THE EAST COAST AND IF THAT HAPPENS, THE ECONOMY WILL IMPLODE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/.
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2 661 C JP MORGAN 6 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 11 4
TOTAL: 12 12 MONTH TO DATE: 4,091
JPMorgan stopped 6/12
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 12 NOTICES FOR 1200 OZ or 0.0373 TONNES
total notices so far: 4091 contracts for 409,100 Oz (12.724 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 4 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 20,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5,022 for 25.110 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $6.65 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.39 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WTHDRAWAL OF 1,824 MILLION OZ
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 457.795MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2425 CONTRACTS TO 143,186 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.08 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 3800 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A MINOR LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS //. WE HAD ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE.. WE HAD A HUGE 1375 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 482 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 3800 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: 482 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.08) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 3800 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1375 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 25.305MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT REMAINS AT 25.305 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 482 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 600 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT, ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 DAYS, total 15,952 contracts: OR 79.760 MILLION OZ (1063 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 79.760 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RDHIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 79.760 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2425 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:1375 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF 22.765 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT REMAINS AT 25.305 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 3800 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR TINY GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 482 CONTRACTS,//MINOR FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX//ACCESS TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE SMALL GAIN IN PRICE FRIDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (482) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 20,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 16,471 OI CONTRACTS TO 558,697 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 3400 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (16,471 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $32.10 IN PRICE /FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY FRIDAYS SMALL 800 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 12.8864 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $32.10 GAIN N PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 22,016 OI CONTRACTS (69,89 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS WE ARE BEGINNING TO SIT SHIVA FOR OUR CROOKED SHORTERS ONCE THEY SEE THE HUGE RISE IN THE PRICE OF GOLD MUCH AGAINST THEIR WISHES.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5545 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 555,303
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,105 CONTRACTS WITH 16,471 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5545 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 22,016 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 817 CONTRACTS,
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5545 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 16,471 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 22,016 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT 12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 800 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 12.8864 TONNES.
/ 3) MINOR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (DURING COMEX ACCESS) WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 817 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 78,710 CONTRACTS OF 7,871,000OZ OR 244.62 TONNES IN 15TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5264 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 15 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 227,57 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 244.62 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6,90% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 244.62 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 2425 CONTRACTS OI TO 143,186 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1375 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1155 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1155 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 3025 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1375 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3800 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 22.000 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.08 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING/FRIDAY NIGHT
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.49PTS OR .803%//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 245.41PTS OR 1.56%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 568.58PTS OR 1,53%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.24%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0564CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0552 Oil UP TO 71.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74..52Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGE
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 16,471 CONTRACTS TO 555,303 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.10 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5545). THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON FRIDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MINOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5545 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC 5545 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5545 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 22,016 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5545 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 16,471 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $32.10 FRIDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT A SMALL SIZED 817 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON’S SMACKDOWN RIGHT AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED (DURING POWELL’S PRESSER)
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (12.8864 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 12.8864 TONNES.
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $32.10/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MEGAA HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY FRIDAY EVENING AS THE $2,600 PRICE LEVEL WAS PIERCED.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 69.89 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.885 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY FRIDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF A SMALL SIZED 800 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO: 12.8864 TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 12.8864 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $32.10
WE HAVE REMOVED 3400 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 25,410 CONTRACTS OR 2,541,000 OZ (79.03
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4091 notices 409,100oz 12.724 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
0 dealer deposits:
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposits
i) Into Int. Delaware: 36,169.875 oz
total deposits 36,169.875 oz (1125 kilobars)
withdrawals: 2
i) out of JPMorgan: 12,492.37oz
ii) Out of Loomis: 675.171
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 13,167.544 oz
adjustments:1
dealer to customer/jpmorgan 9645.300 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 64 contracts having LOST 39 contracts. We had 47 notices filed on THURSDAY so we GAINED 8 contracts or 800 oz will stand at the comex as these boys seek metal on THIS side of the pond.
OCTOBER GAINED 49 CONTRACTS UP TO 41,392 CONTRACTS
NOVEMBER GAINED 292 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 745
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 13,433 CONTRACTS TO 451,039
We had 12 contracts filed for today representing 1200 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 12 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (409,100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (64 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (12x 100 oz per contract( equals 414,300 OZ OR 12.8864 ONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (4091 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT (64 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (12 x 100 oz which equals 414,300 oz (12.8864 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 12.8864 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total pledged gold: 1,876.299.342 oz 58.360 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 16,921,043.834 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,464,928.331 /// 232.21 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,456.615.543 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,588,629oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 173.82tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 23 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE SEPT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
0 OZ
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
607,441.410 oz ASAHI
No of oz served today (contracts)
4 CONTRACT(S) (20,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
39 contracts (0.195million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5022 Contracts (25.110 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) Into ASAHI: 607,441.410 oz
total customer deposits 607,441.410 oz
We had 0 withdrawals
ii) Out of Delaware 3,954,03 oz
iii) Out of Manfra 137,148 iz
total withdrawal 13,167.544 OZ
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/304.985million or 44.37%
adjustment:0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 74.897MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 304,377million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 43 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 21 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 21 NOTICES FILED ON FRIDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ
UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
OCTOBER SAW A LOSS OF 67 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1364 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 41 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 150
DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 2233 CONTRACTS UP TO 125,094 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 4 for 20,000oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 78,564 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5022x 5,000 oz = 25.110 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(43)and the number of notices served upon today 4 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month: 5022 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (43)x number of notices served upon today minus (4)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 25.305 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 25.305 million oz.
There are 74.897million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOURINTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 26 WITH GOLD UP $9.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 23 WITH GOLD UP $29.70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 8.88 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.85 TONNES
AUGUST 22 WITH GOLD DOWN $28.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 9.43 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR GOLD INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.70 TONNES
AUGUST 21 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER WITHDRAWAL OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 20 WITH GOLD UP $9.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 859.00 TONNES
AUGUST 19 WITH GOLD UP $3.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 7.19 TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD./ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 854.97 TONNES
AUGUST 16 WITH GOLD UP $44.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 15 WITH GOLD UP $13,70 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 847.78 TONNES
AUGUST 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.03 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.76 TONNES
AUGUST 13 WITH GOLD UP $3.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 849.79 TONNES
AUGUST 12 WITH GOLD UP $30.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: ////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 9 WITH GOLD UP $10.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.91 TONNES
AUGUST 8 WITH GOLD UP $31.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.04 TONNES
AUGUST 7 WITH GOLD UP $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 848.06 TONNES
AUGUST 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $13.10 ON THE DAY; SMALL CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD” A WITHDRAWAL OF .57 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD////INVENTORY RESTS AT 844.90 TONNES
AUGUST 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $9.95 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 845.47 TONNES
AUGUST 1 WITH GOLD UP $9.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//INVENTORY RESTS AT 846.05 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 875.39 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 27//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.921 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.959 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 26//WITH SILVER UP $0.23//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 45,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.880 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 23//WITH SILVER UP $0.72//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.925 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 22//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.44//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.943 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 21//WITH SILVER $0.03//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1..552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 468.344 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 20//WITH SILVER $0.24//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 1.369 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.792 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 19//WITH SILVER $0.39//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.506 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.423 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 16//WITH SILVER $0.49//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 15//WITH SILVER $1.14//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.186 MILLION ON INTO THE SLV.///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.929 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 14//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.40//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 13//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.19//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 12//WITH SILVER UP $.37//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 9//WITH SILVER DOWN $.03//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.743 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 8//WITH SILVER UP $.70//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 3.241 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 7//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.27//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.552 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV////./// /INVENTORY AT 462.502 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 6//WITH SILVER UP $0.05//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:///./// /INVENTORY AT 458.851 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 2//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.01//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.243 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV ///./// /INVENTORY AT 460.961 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 1//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.46//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.608 MILLION OZ OF SILVER VAPOUR INTO THE SLV///./// /INVENTORY AT 462.204 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 459.619 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
India Reports Record Gold Imports In August
SUNDAY, SEP 22, 2024 – 09:00 PM
By Mike Maharrey of MoneyMatals.com
India reported record gold imports in August after the country slashed its import duty the month before. India ranks as the world’s second-largest gold consumer behind China.
In July, the Indian government cut taxes on gold and silver imports by more than half, lowering duties from 15 percent to 6 percent. The domestic gold price fell 6 percent month-on-month after the lower duty went into effect, even as the dollar price of gold increased. As expected, the government’s move spurred a big jump in gold demand.
India reported record gold imports in dollar terms, totaling $10 billion in August. It was over a three-fold increase over the previous month. The World Gold Council estimates the country imported 140 tons of gold, tripling July’s total.
So far, in 2024, Indian gold imports are up 30 percent.
After falling sharply after the import duty cut, the gold price in rupees stabilized and largely moved in tandem with the international price. Gold was up 3.9 percent in rupee terms in August.
Despite the August price gains, the domestic gold price remains about 2 percent lower than it was before the reduction in the import duty.
According to the World Gold Council, domestic demand for gold coins, bars, and jewelry surged after the duty cut and has since stabilized. Market reports indicate that buying momentum remains “healthy,” with an overall uptick before the import duty reduction.
“Purchases previously deferred are now materializing, and there is increased interest in heavier pieces of jewelry. Industry participants anticipate that this momentum will continue, though they are closely monitoring the crucial festive and wedding season sales that run through late August to December.”
Anecdotal evidence suggests that festival buying kicked off on a strong note.
The World Gold Council also reported that rural gold buying has shown improvement in recent months. A favorable monsoon season is expected to increase crop production, and additional income for farmers will likely boost gold demand in the fall months.
Evidencing strong investor interest in gold, Indian ETFs continue to report inflows of metal. According to World Gold Council estimates, India-based funds experienced the highest monthly inflows of gold on record in August.
So far, in 2024, Indian gold ETFs have added about 9.5 tons of gold.
According to the WGC, total assets under management by Indian gold ETFs have increased to INR374 billion (US$4.4 billion), an 8 percent month-on-month rise and a 54 percent year-on-year increase.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) continues to add gold to its reserves. Based on the latest figures, the Indian central bank has increased its gold holdings by 50 tons this year.
The RBI has been buying gold since 2017. Over that period, it has increased its gold holding by over 260 tons.
The Indian central bank now holds a record 853.6 tons of gold. The yellow metal makes up 9 percent of its foreign reserves, up from 7.5 percent a year ago.
An Indian economist told the Times of India that the push to accumulate gold was based on both political and economic factors. He said that the “reliability” of the U.S. dollar has “diminished.” He noted the “noticeable decline” in the confidence in U.S. dollar assets.
Another economist told the Times, “It makes a lot of sense (to invest in gold), given the increased volatility in the FX market, elevated interest rates in the U.S., and, of course, also as the central banks in each economy would like to diversify the asset classes in which they are parking their reserves.”
Indians have historically had an affinity for gold. Indian households own an estimated 25,000 tons of gold, and that likely understates the amount given the large black market in the country. Gold is deeply interwoven into the country’s marriage ceremonies and cultural rituals. Indians have long valued the yellow metal as a store of wealth, especially in poorer rural regions. Around two-thirds of India’s gold demand comes from beyond the urban centers, where large numbers of people operate outside the tax system.
Gold isn’t considered a luxury in India. Even poor Indians buy gold. According to a 2018 ICE 360 survey, one in every two households in India had purchased gold within the last five years. Overall, 87 percent of Indian households own some gold. Even households at the lowest income levels in India hold some of the yellow metal. According to the survey, more than 75 percent of families in the bottom 10 percent of income managed to buy some gold.
The yellow metal was a lifeline for Indians buffeted by the economic storm caused by the government’s response to COVID-19. After the Indian government locked down the country, banks tightened credit to mitigate the default risk. Unable to secure traditional loans, Indians used gold to secure financing. As Indians endured a second wave of lockdowns, many Indians resorted to selling gold outright to make ends meet.
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2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-09-21 08:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:38a ET Saturday, September 21, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Central banks not aligned with the United States have figured out U.S. gold price suppression policy and are blowing it away with steady purchases of physical gold, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program with Shane Morand.
END
U.S. gold suppression policy has been figured out and isn’t working anymore, Maguire tells LFTV
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-09-21 08:40 Section: Daily Dispatches
8:38a ET Saturday, September 21, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Central banks not aligned with the United States have figured out U.S. gold price suppression policy and are blowing it away with steady purchases of physical gold, London metals trader Andrew Maguire tells this week’s edition of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program with Shane Morand.
Maguire says there are many indications that these central banks plan to reincorporate gold into international trade payments, avoiding the U.S. dollar, and the more the U.S. Federal Reserve tries to knock the gold price down, the more those central banks acquire real metal.
Via intermediaries to evades U.S. and European Union economic sanctions, gold already is being used increasingly as a trade currency, Maguire adds.
Russian traders anticipate a gold price of $3,500 soon, Maguire says.
The program is 50 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
Sunday marks the end of summer, and with it the closing of another Deep Thinking Season. In delightful venues from Aspen to Sun Valley to Chautauqua, the sophisticated class once again gathered to contemplate the great issues of the day. Lectures were delivered, slideshows unlimbered and chins rubbed sagely over topics like the downward spiral of world order, the promise and peril of AI, semiconductors and national security, etc. And of course climate, climate, climate.
Here’s a proposal for next summer’s program organizers: a conference devoted to preparing a plan for the collapse of the U.S. public debt market and the dollar’s world reserve status — and the economic and social consequences of such an event. With debts already about to surpass the nation’s entire GDP, and adding close to $2 trillion more this year, only a dwindling number of denialists doubt that a cataclysmic reckoning, including double-digit damage to Americans’ income growth, lies ahead. It’s past time to prepare.
An eye-catching, attendance-building title for the conference would come easily: “Preparing for Armageddon”; “Climbing Out of the Ashes”; “The Day the Dollar Died.”
Once one proposes the topic, the agenda writes itself. The meeting would need panels on which government safety-net promises to renege on immediately, which previously sacred discretionary spending to eliminate, how to protect the nation with a shrunken defense budget and which new taxes to impose.
Given the dead end into which our leaders have already steered us, though, these measures won’t come close to meeting the moment.
A highly stimulating session could be committed to asset sales. A basic tool in any bankruptcy is to look through the balance sheet for marketable property. The federal government owns a ton of it, ranging from its vast land holdings to electromagnetic spectrum to student debt. Deciding which assets to monetize, in what order, would make for a fascinating afternoon discussion.
We’ll need a plan for dealing with creditors. What size haircut or renegotiated duration might bondholders be willing to stomach? Surely we could do better than, say, the Argentines, but how much better? What demands might foreign sovereign bondholders try to place on the United States, and how could those demands be countered?
The economic issues might well be the simplest to anticipate. Maybe the most likely of many possible triggering events is the day when — not if — tens of millions of Americans are told that the trust funds are not trustworthy, and that the safety-net benefits they have been receiving are about to be reduced, perhaps drastically.
One panel at this conference could be charged with drafting messages attempting to explain to an enraged public the necessities of that unfortunate situation. (But at that point, no words, however artful, will suffice.)
The sense of social betrayal that the debt crisis will stir might require actions the nation has rarely contemplated. An accompanying economic collapse could unleash violent reactions in a country that has become grimly familiar or even inured to such conduct.
Which of the president’s more than 100 unilateral emergency powers might be needed? Martial law has been invoked at least 68 times, but no act of Congress defines it. Should it be included as a possible response to widespread civil unrest? If so, under what limits?
What is and is not permitted by the language of the Insurrection Act, authorizing the use of the military not just to “suppress the rebellion” but also to suppress an “unlawful combination or conspiracy” that “hinders the execution of the laws”?
It shouldn’t fall to the summer conference community to fashion such a plan. Any well-run business or institution engages in disaster scenario planning as standard practice. Collapses of creditor confidence tend to happen suddenly; that would be no time to start the thought process.
In every executive assignment I’ve been given, I’ve commissioned tabletop exercises to think through conceivable major threats, ranging from natural disasters to a sudden product failure, and to draw up specific action plans ready for swift implementation if the worst should happen. The bottom left-hand drawer of whatever desk I was occupying at the time always held several of these “redbook” plans, most of them for contingencies far less likely than the debt cataclysm that more and more observers are now calling probable or even unavoidable.
One would like to believe that a redbook plan for a national debt emergency rests, ready for implementation, in somebody’s White House desk. But given that an effective response would require action across so many agencies — a “whole of government” approach, as the current administration likes to label its extralegal impositions — if such a plan had been assembled, odds are we’d know about it. Besides, the crowd in charge now has spent 3½ years exacerbating the debt problem, in denial that there is one.
A British maxim says (there are various renderings), “Now that the money has run out, we shall have to begin to think.” When it’s already clear that the money will run out, it’s unconscionable to wait that long. Since our national leaders, from both parties, have made the reckoning so probable, the least they can do is to start thinking about how to meet the fiscal judgment day when it arrives.
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Mitch Daniels is a senior adviser to the Liberty Fund, president emeritus of Purdue University and a former governor of Indiana.
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Record imports by India help drive gold rally
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-09-20 08:00 Section: Daily Dispatches
The Indian government’s jettisoning its longstanding hostility to gold is a major indicator of dramatically changing times for the monetary metals.
* * *
By Leslie Hook and Chris Kay Financial Times, London Thursday, September 19, 2024
A surge in demand among Indian consumers for gold jewellery and bars after a recent cut to tariffs is helping to drive global bullion prices to a series of fresh highs.
India’s gold imports hit their highest level on record by dollar value in August at $10.06 billion, according to government data released Tuesday. That implies roughly 131 tonnes of bullion imports, the sixth-highest total on record by volume, according to a preliminary estimate from consultancy Metals Focus.
The high gold price — which is up by one-quarter since the start of the year — has traditionally deterred price-sensitive Asian buyers, with Indians reducing demand for gold jewellery in response.
But the Indian government cut import duties on gold by 9% at the end of July, triggering a renewed surge in demand in the world’s second-largest buyer of gold.
“The impact of the duty cut was unprecedented. It was incredible,” said Philip Newman, managing director of Metals Focus in London. “It really brought consumers in.” …
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES/:live from the vault: no 191 ANDREW MAGUIRE
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:SUGAR
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 0.49PTS OR .803%//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 245.41PTS OR 1.56%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 568.58PTS OR 1,53%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.24%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0564CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0552 Oil UP TO 71.64 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74..52Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE YUAN TRADING BELOWLEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.0564
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0552
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 0.49 PTS OR .03%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED 245.41 PTS OR 1.56%
2. Nikkei closed 568,53 POINTS OR 1,53%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT SPAIN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.56 EURO RISES TO 1.1157 UP 12 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.847 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.27…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.2065 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.555 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2,993
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.175
3j Gold at $2614.10 /Silver at: 31.32 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 758/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.75
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.27 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.847% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8494 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9479 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.737 UP 3 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.065 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.656 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.12…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.930 UP 53PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.955 DOWN 1BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.758 UP 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise After Record Gamma Surge As Europe Slides Deeper Into Recession
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Sep 23, 2024 – 08:18 AM
Futures are higher with both tech and small-caps outperforming as a record $9 billion surge in dealer gamma stabilizes markets and buoys the ongoing meltup despite the start of buyback blackout.
As of 8:00am, S&P futures are up 0.1%, hovering near record highs after the Fed’s jumbo rate cut last week, and erasing an earlier slide that was sparked by the latest recessionary set of European PMI numbers; Nasdaq futures rise 0.2% with semis higher, NVDA up +40bps and INTC +4% on a report Apollo is considering a $5 billion investment in Intel, and follows news that Qualcomm is in discussions to acquire the company. Bond yields are slightly higher as the yield curve twists steeper; USD is stronger but off its best levels of the day. Commodities are higher led by Ags and Energy while Metals are weaker. Post-Fed, we have a somewhat quieter macro data week that will be dominated by Fedspeak but also updates on Flash PMIs, regional activity indicators, Q2 GDP, Personal Income, and Consumer Confidence. One of the market narratives will be the presence/absence of negative seasonality (the 2nd half of September is historically the worst period for the market).
In premarket trading, Intel rose 4% after Apollo Global Management Inc. offered to make a multibillion-dollar investment, according to people familiar with the matter, in a move that would be a vote of confidence in the chipmaker’s turnaround strategy. General Motors declined 2% as Bernstein cut the recommendation on the automaker’s stock to market perform, saying data suggests that there might be rising earnings headwinds.Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Ciena rises 3% as Citi upgraded the communications equipment firm to buy, saying the overhang from excess inventory and weak demand is gradually lifting.
Constellation Energy gains 3% as Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the stock, pointing to the company’s plan to invest $1.6 billion to revive its Three Mile Island plant.
Keurig Dr Pepper ticks 1% higher after an upgrade at Citi, which predicts volume improvement in the US coffee unit in the second half.
Moody’s and S&P Global (SPGI) slip about 1% as Raymond James cut its recommendations on both, seeing risks to their estimates.
Palantir slips 1% as Raymond James downgraded its recommendation on the data-analysis software company, saying the stock’s recent strong performance and rich valuation leave little room for error.
Pinterest gains 2% on a buy-rating initiation from Deutsche Bank, which said the Internet platform is able to attract an “affluent, high purchase-intent user base.”
The overnight session was busy in Europe, where weak PMI data for France and Germany on Monday was followed by numbers that showed the euro-area’s private-sector economy shrank for the first time since March. The composite Purchasing Managers’ Index by S&P Global dropped to 48.9 in September from 51 the previous month — below the 50 threshold separating growth from contraction. Analysts had expected the measure to slip only marginally, to 50.5. As a result, investors are increasingly wary of European assets as the region’s manufacturing downturn deepens and political turmoil in France continues.
“The market is almost demanding a more aggressive rate cut, especially after what we have seen the Fed has done,” Marija Veitmane, senior multi-asset strategist at State Street, said on Bloomberg TV. The ECB “is definitely behind the curve,” she said.
A key segment of the German yield curve disinverted as traders bet the ECB will need to accelerate the pace of interest-rate cuts after the euro-area private-sector economy shrank for the first time since March. The rate on two-year bunds fell below the 10-year equivalent on Monday, bringing the spread between the two tenors above zero for the first time since November 2022. It’s a phenomenon already seen in the US and UK, as the Federal Reserve and Bank of England also loosen monetary policy.
A slate of Fed speakers later Monday including regional presidents Raphael Bostic and Austan Goolsbee may give fresh insight on the pace and scope of easing. Further out, the Fed’s preferred price metric and data on US personal spending will be in focus on Friday.
European stocks were little changed with defensive plays in the food, telecoms, real estate and utilities sectors faring best, while real estate and utilities outperform as banks drag with Commerzbank among the biggest laggards after German government said it wouldn’t sell any more shares in the lender. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
Rightmove shares rise as much as 5.3% after Australia’s REA Group made a third cash and share offer for the UK property portal, with analysts noting the offer may still be too low
Barry Callebaut gains as much as 3% after Stifel raised its target for the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, citing a recent drop in cocoa bean prices and encouraging harvest signs
Zalando shares rise as much as 2.3% to hit their highest level since April after analysts at RBC and Stifel nudged-up their price targets on the clothing retailer
Paradox Interactive shares rise as much as 8.4%, before paring gains, after the Swedish game publisher was named ‘stock of the week’ by local business newspaper DI
Commerzbank declines as much as 6.2% after Germany said it won’t sell any more shares in the lender, in a move that demonstrates its opposition to a takeover by Italian rival UniCredit
LVMH shares drop as much as 1.6% while shares in Kering decline as much as 2.9% after both stocks were downgraded to neutral at Bank of America on concerns of a luxury slowdown
Alphawave IP shares slump as much as 43% to a record low after the Canadian semiconductor firm booked an Ebitda loss in the first half and reduced outlook for the full year
Genmab falls as much as 4.3%, the most in a month, as Nordea cut its fair price target on the Danish biotechnology firm, saying it needs “significant investment” to advance its drug pipeline
11 Bit Studios tumbles as much as 39%, the most on record, after the disappointing release of its Frostpunk 2 strategy-survival game, with Santander and Ipopema both cutting their rating on its stock
Investors are increasingly wary of European assets as the region’s manufacturing downturn deepens and political turmoil in France continues. Weak PMI data for France and Germany on Monday was followed by numbers that showed the euro-area’s private-sector economy shrank for the first time since March. Meanwhile, the widening yield gap between France and Germany shows investors remain on edge over France’s political and fiscal challenges since President Emmanuel Macron called a surprise election in June.
A new French cabinet named late Saturday is a patchwork of conservatives and centrists who haven’t always worked smoothly together, and opposition blocs in parliament are threatening no-confidence votes that could topple the government. Investors are concerned that were the government to collapse, it would jeopardize the administration’s ability to pass a budget through parliament over the coming weeks.
Elsewhere, Asian markets were lifted by speculation China is close to announcing fresh stimulus, after a cut to a short-term policy rate and a rare economic briefing scheduled for Tuesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index rose as much as 0.3%, extending gains for a third session. Top contributors to the advance include TSMC, SK Hynix, Xiaomi and Hon Hai Precision Industry. The benchmark in the Philippines closed in bull-market territory, while shares in South Korea and Taiwan also rose. Markets in Japan were closed for a holiday.
China’s CSI 300 Index finished the day 0.4% higher, helped by the central bank’s cut in a short-term policy rate. Several regulators are also scheduled to hold a briefing Tuesday on financial support for economic development, fueling speculation officials are preparing to ramp up efforts to revive growth. Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong capped their seventh day of gains, the longest winning streak since Jan. 2019.
“The start of the Fed easing cycle should lead to more stimulus from China, particularly as the 5% growth target seems difficult to achieve,” Mohit Kumar, chief strategist and economist for Europe at Jefferies International Ltd., wrote in a note. The “stimulus measures should also be beneficial for Europe.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3% and the yield on 10-year Treasuries was little changed at 3.73%. The euro fell, weakening 0.5% against the greenback and toward the bottom of the G-10 FX leader board. Only the Swedish krona has seen a larger decline. The pound drops 0.3% after UK PMI also fell short of expectations, albeit to a lesser extent. Australia’s dollar appreciated on China stimulus hopes.
In rates, treasuries extended yield-curve steepening trend led by German bond market, where 2s10s spread turned positive for the first time since November 2022 after a gauge of private-sector activity shrank for the first time since March. US front-end yields are richer by ~2bp with longer-dated yields slightly cheaper on the day, steepening 2s10s spread by nearly 3bp; 10-year around 3.75% is little changed on the day, trailing German 10-year by ~5bp. A key segment of the German yield curve normalized as traders bet the European Central Bank will need to accelerate the pace of interest-rate cuts after the euro-area private-sector economy shrank for the first time since March. German two-year yields fall 7 bps to 2.16%, below the 10-year equivalent as the curve bull-steepened sharply after the PMI data, widening 2s10s by 3.2bp, 5s30s by 4bp
In commodities, oil prices pared an earlier gain to trade little changed, with WTI near $71.10 a barrel. Spot gold reversed course to fall $3 after earlier touching a record high as the worsening strife in the Middle East fueled wagers on further price gains in the metal due to its haven status.
Bitcoin edges higher and climbs above USD 63.5k, with Ethereum also gaining and holding above USD 2.6k.
The US economic data calendar includes August Chicago Fed national activity index (8:30am) and September S&P Global manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am); ahead this week are consumer confidence, new home sales, 2Q GDP revision, durable goods orders, personal income and spending and University of Michigan sentiment. Fed speakers scheduled include Bostic (8am), Goolsbee (10:15am) and Kashkari (1pm); Bowman, Kugler, Collins, Powell, Williams, Barr, Cook and Kashkari are slated later this week
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,763.50
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 515.04
MXAP up 0.2% to 186.88
MXAPJ little changed at 584.36
Nikkei up 1.5% to 37,723.91
Topix up 1.0% to 2,642.35
Hang Seng Index little changed at 18,247.11
Shanghai Composite up 0.4% to 2,748.92
Sensex up 0.3% to 84,801.54
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 8,152.95
Kospi up 0.3% to 2,602.01
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.15%
Euro down 0.6% to $1.1094
Brent Futures down 0.3% to $74.30/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,617.77
US Dollar Index up 0.44% to 101.16
Top Overnight News
Today the U.S. Commerce Department is expected to propose prohibiting Chinese software and hardware in connected and autonomous vehicles on American roads due to national security concerns. RTRS
China cut its 14-day reverse repo rate by 10bp (from 1.95% to 1.85%) and injected ~CNY75B worth of liquidity via the policy tool; China’s PBOC tomorrow will hold a briefing on providing support for the economy, a move sparking speculation of further stimulus steps. WSJ
Eurozone flash PMIs for Sept slump below expectations as growth cools, with manufacturing coming in at 44.8 (down from 45.8 in Aug and vs. the Street 45.7) and services at 50.5 (down from 52.9 in Aug and vs. the Street 52.3). S&P
Oyo, the India-based hotel firm, is buying Motel 6 from Blackstone in a deal worth $525MM (the transaction will be a part of Oyo’s US expansion plans). WSJ
Russia’s red lines have been shredded and its nuclear threats are repeatedly ignored, forcing Putin to search for new sources of deterrence. WaPo
Israel and Hezbollah exchange flurry of fire over the weekend as fighting continues to dramatically escalate between the two sides. Israeli strike in Lebanon on Friday didn’t just take out a senior military commander (Ibrahim Aqil), but an entire class of senior leaders, part of a deliberate plan to eliminate those most critical to the terror group’s ability to fight a war. WSJ / CNN
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to evacuate from villages where Hezbollah is storing weapons as the IDF intensifies air strikes. Israel stepped up air strikes against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon this morning, urging civilians to move out of the area. The IDF struck multiple targets as the two sides move closer to an all-out war. NYT / BBG
Kamala Harris is expected to release new economic proposals this week with the proposals aimed at middle-class wealth-building and the economic incentives for business to facilitate that, according to Reuters sources. It was also reported that Harris accepted a CNN debate invitation and challenged former President Trump to a debate although Trump rejected the offer and said it was ‘too late’ for another debate.
US House Republicans unveil three-month stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown which would fund the government through December 20th and omits changes to voter registration that Trump had called for.
Apollo offered to invest as much as $5 billion in Intel, a person familiar said, just days after Qualcomm was said to have floated a friendly takeover. The chipmaker is considering Apollo’s proposal. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with gains capped amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and as weekend newsflow was dominated by geopolitical-related headlines, while Japanese participants were away for the Autumnal Equinox holiday. ASX 200 was led lower by the consumer-related sectors and with sentiment also not helped by a deterioration in the latest flash PMIs. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained after the PBoC cut the 14-day reverse repo rate ahead of next week’s National Day holiday although this was not much of a surprise given that it was the first such operation since the PBoC’s short-term funding rate cuts in July, while automakers were mixed after reports the Biden administration is to propose barring Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles.
Top Asian News
PBoC injected CNY 160.1bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.70% and injected CNY 74.5bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate lowered by 10bps to 1.85% from 1.95%, which follows the cuts to other funding rates in July.
PBoC Governor Pan says will continue to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance and enhance precision of monetary policy adjustments.
US President Biden said his view is that Chinese President Xi is looking to buy diplomatic space to aggressively pursue China’s interests and is trying to minimise turbulence in diplomatic relations. Biden said that China continues to behave aggressively in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits, while he noted the US sees engagement with China as important for conflict prevention and crisis management, according to Reuters.
US President Biden’s administration is to propose barring Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles on US roads with the Commerce Department expected to propose making prohibitions on software effective in the 2027 model year and prohibitions on hardware would be in January 2029, according to Reuters sources.
US President Biden and Japanese PM Kishida reaffirmed a commitment to developing and protecting technologies like AI and semiconductors while increasing resilience to economic coercion, while they also discussed diplomacy with China and destabilising activities including in the South China Sea during a meeting on Saturday.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) began the session on a tentative footing, trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Indices then took a dip lower ahead of the French PMI metrics, in-fitting with a broader risk-off mood; a move which has since stabilised, with indices now generally sitting in positive territory. Today’s slew of PMI metrics had little impact on the complex. European sectors hold a slight positive bias vs opening mixed, though the breadth of the market remains thin; Utilities takes the top spot alongside Telecoms. Banks lag given the takeover related weakness in Commerzbank (-3.6%). Consumer Products is also towards the foot of the pile, after several companies within the sector received downgrades at Bank of America. US Equity Futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.1% RTY +0.1%) are flat/very modestly firmer, taking impetus from a tentative session seen in Europe thus far. Today’s US-specific data docket remains light, with focus only on the US PMI release; there are a few Fed speakers today, including Goolsbee, Kashkari and Bostic. “Speculation mounts over potential discontinuation of Nvidia’s (NVDA) H20 chip as US export review approaches”, according to Digitimes
Top European News
French PM Barnier did not rule out a tax hike for the rich and is open to changes in pension reform with input from employers and unions, while he said they must protect France’s credibility with investors and the government will take pragmatic measures to limit immigration.
French President’s Chief of Staff said Antoine Armand was named as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot was named as Foreign Minister, while Bruno Retailleau was named as Interior Minister.
German Chancellor Scholz’s SPD narrowly beat the far-right AfD in elections in the eastern state of Brandenburg as exit polls showed the SPD at 31%-32% vs AfD at 29%-30%, according to BBC.
Fitch affirmed Portugal at A- and revised the outlook to Positive.
ECB’s Kazaks says services inflation is a concern, as is slow growth; direction for rates is downward.
Spain’s Economy Minister says the Gov’t is lifting its 2024 GDP forecast to 2.7% (prev. 2.4%)
FX
DXY is boosted by the post-PMI softness in the EUR. DXY has moved back onto a 101 handle and eclipsed last Friday’s high at 101.01. The next target comes via the 19th September high at 101.47, which could be tested following the US PMI metrics.
EUR is the clear laggard across the majors after a raft of EZ-wide PMI data underscored the region’s soft growth outlook as the boost from the French Olympics proved to be short-lived. EUR/USD had been as high as 1.1167 overnight but has since slipped onto a 1.10 handle.
GBP is lower vs. the USD but firmer vs. the EUR given the EZ’s awful PMI metrics. Cable was already on the backfoot in the run up to UK PMI metrics with USD boosted by the soft EUR. UK PMI data showed misses across the board but failed to add to Cable’s downside.
JPY was initially softer vs. the USD and what looked to be an extension of Friday’s price action, but JPY has been able to claw back some gains vs. the USD. USD/JPY had been as high as 144.45, stopping just shy of Friday’s 144.49 peak.
AUD has trimmed its opening gains vs. the USD but is just about holding above the 0.68 mark. NZD/USD is currently contained within Friday’s 0.6210-60 range.
Fixed Income
USTs are little changed overall but toward 114-26+ highs given the bullish-bias from the morning’s European data points (discussed below). US PMIs are on the docket today, with a few Fed speakers dotted across the day, including Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari.
A session of gains for EGBs, bolstered by a particularly poor set of Flash PMIs from France & Germany, with the nowcast for the latter pointing to a “0.2% decrease compared to the quarter before”. French number lifted Bunds to a 134.64 peak, before taking another leg higher following the German and EZ-wide figures to a session peak of 134.82; currently, Bunds sit around 134.55 and German yields are lower across the curve but with the short-end under more pressure than the long end.
OATs are also firmer, with the bulk of action driven by aforementioned data points. Additionally, there is renewed focus on the French political backdrop into the fast approaching constitutional deadline to put forward a budget on October 1st.
Gilts are propped up by the region’s own PMI release, which dropped from the prior by more than expected but remain indicative of a soft landing for the UK with services. The data took Gilts to a fleeting 100.00 peak, with resistance above at 100.09 from Friday and thereafter 100.39 from Thursday.
Commodities
A choppy session for the crude complex this morning as the APAC geopolitical gains in the complex were wiped out amid risk aversion in European hours – not helped by the slew of dismal flash PMI data from the region, with the metrics overall endorsing the dovish bias. Brent’Nov in a USD 74.18-75.13/bbl parameter.
Lower trade across precious metals but spot gold is slightly more cushioned than its peers, with spot silver and spot palladium posting losses of over 2% as the Dollar strengthened. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,613.89-2,631.41/oz range.
Base metals are lower across the board as a function of the stronger Dollar and risk aversion, with little solace felt from the PBoC’s unscheduled 14-day reverse repo rate cut, although this was not much of a surprise. 3M LME copper has fallen back under USD 9,500/t.
Chinese Government to revamp tax rebates for fuel oil imports, with change likely effective from October, via Reuters citing sources; would raise import costs for independent refiners and curb fuel oil imports
Geopolitics: Middle East
“Renewed Israeli raids on southern Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia
Israeli PM Netanyahu said that they inflicted a series of blows on Hezbollah in the past few days that it never imagined.
Israel Defence Forces said during the weekend that it struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after over 100 rockets were fired towards northern Israel by the military group, while it added that strikes would continue and intensify against Hezbollah, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that IDF announced on Monday that it conducted widespread strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Israel’s Defence Minister said Hezbollah is beginning to feel some of Israel’s military capabilities and Israel will continue its operations against the group until northern Israel residents can return home safely, according to Reuters.
Israel’s military chief said operations against Hezbollah are a message to anyone in the Middle East looking to harm Israeli citizens, while he added that Hezbollah will keep getting hit until it understands that Israel will return its citizens to their homes safely. Furthermore, he said Israel is well-prepared for the next stages planned in the coming days, according to Reuters.
IDF spokesman said they have monitored preparations by Hezbollah to launch attacks on Israel and Hezbollah has turned southern Lebanon into a confrontation arena, while the spokesman added that they will hit Hezbollah hard and will work to reduce its power and keep it away from the border. Furthermore, Israeli media stated that warplanes attacked deep into Lebanon 120 km from the border, as well as noted that Hezbollah is preparing to carry out intensive attacks in the coming hours, while the IDF spokesman responded that the army will do whatever it takes to restore security to northern Israel when asked about the possibility of a ground incursion into Lebanon.
Hezbollah said it targeted Ramat David Airbase with dozens of missiles in response to repeated Israeli attacks on Lebanon, according to a statement. Hezbollah also stated its top commander Ahmed Wahbi was killed during Israel’s strike on Beirut suburbs.
Hezbollah’s Deputy Leader said the confrontation with Israel entered a new phase of an open-ended battle of reckoning.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched cruise missiles and explosive drones towards Israel’s north and south, while it said it targeted with drones a military post in northern Israel on Sunday morning and launched a drone attack on a target in Jordan Valley in ‘occupied territories’.
Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei said Israel is committing “shameless crimes” against children, not combatants, while he called for inner strength among Muslims to eliminate the ‘malignant cancerous tumour’ from Palestine.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they arrested 12 operatives collaborating with Israel and planning actions against Iran’s security, according to SNN.
US directly warned Israel against a full-blown war with Hezbollah, according to the FT. It was separately reported that the UN special coordinator in Lebanon said with the region on the brink of imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough that there is no military solution that will make either side safer, according to Reuters.
Qatari Al Jazeera TV said Israeli forces stormed its bureau in West Bank’s Ramallah with a military order to close it for 45 days.
A bomb explosion killed a police officer in the security details of foreign ambassadors in northwest Pakistan, while all foreign diplomats were safe and were reported to travel back to the capital of Islamabad.
OTHER
Ukrainian President Zelensky thanked the military for a new attack on Russian arsenal and said the end of the war against Russia depends on the decisiveness of Ukraine’s partners, as well as noted that Ukraine’s defences would be better if its partners provided the needed weapons and permission to use them.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russia hit Ukrainian energy facilities with high-precision weapons and drones, according to agencies.
Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will take no part in the follow-up to the Swiss-organised peace summit.
US official said Quad leaders expressed concern about the Russian-North Korean relationship, as well as about the South China Sea and maritime disputes.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Aug. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. -0.20, prior -0.34
09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.2, prior 55.7
09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 48.6, prior 47.9
09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 54.3, prior 54.6
Central bank speakers
08:00: Fed’s Bostic Gives Speech on Economic Outlook
10:15: Fed’s Goolsbee Speaks in Fireside Chat
13:00: Fed’s Kashkari Participates in Q&A on Childcare
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As the dust settles on the FOMC last week, the main highlights for this coming week are likely to be the core US PCE reading on Friday, an abundance of Fedspeak giving insight into last week’s surprise 50bps cut, the flash global PMIs today, flash CPIs in France and Spain alongside Tokyo CPI on Friday, and central bank decisions from Australia (tomorrow, no change expected), Sweden (Wednesday, -25bps expected) and Switzerland (Thursday, DB expect -50bps).
Fedspeak will probably dominate the week until we reach that core PCE number with Bostic (voter – dovish) opening up proceedings today, followed by Goolsbee (non-voter – dovish) who may give indications that he is looking for a continuation of large rate reductions. Tomorrow and Thursday, Bowman will tell us why she was the first governor to dissent at an FOMC since 2005. Kugler (voter – neutral) speaks on Wednesday and then takes part in a fireside with Collins (non-voter – dovish) on Thursday. Also on Thursday we have the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference. Powell opens it up with pre-recorded remarks with Williams (voter – dovish) and Barr (voter – dovish) also speaking. So a busy array of speakers and plenty of focus of all of them.
In terms of data, Thursday’s final reading of US Q2 real GDP (expected to be unchanged at 3.0%), and the personal income and consumption report which contains the core PCE will be the main highlights. DB expect core PCE to post a +0.18% gain in August, helping the YoY rate tick up a tenth to 2.7%. The GDP report includes 5 years of revisions up to Q1 2024 so that will be an interesting curiosity that could slightly reshape how we think about this cycle. Elsewhere in the US, tomorrow’s consumer confidence, Wednesday’s new home sales, Thursday’s durable goods orders and Friday’s advance goods trade balance round out the week. The full day-by-day week ahead appears at the end as usual.
Over the weekend Olaf Scholz’s SPD party has narrowly held onto first place in Brandenburg, pipping far right AfD with around 30.9% of the votes to the latter’s 29.2%. This has been an SPD stronghold since unification in 1990 and the popular regional premier did distance himself from the federal government during the campaign so there is less of a read through to national politics than could be thought at first glance. There will also be some concern that this is the third regional election in a row where the AfD has come first or second with around 30% of the votes. Perhaps some tactical voting stopped them winning over the weekend? However no main party will power-share with them so at the moment there is limited implications of their current poll standings, but their rise continues to be on a broadly upward path.
Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning but with trading volumes light due to a holiday in Japan. As I check my screens, the Hang Seng (+0.82%) is leading gains with the CSI (+0.64%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.73%) also higher. Overnight, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) have cut its 14-day reverse repo rate (RRR) to 1.85% from 1.95% and have announced a press conference for tomorrow hosted by the top three financial market regulators on “financial support for economic development” according to the official release.
Elsewhere, the KOSPI (+0.30%) is also seeing small gains, reversing course from a negative opening. S&P 500 (+0.33%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.65%) futures are firm but with US Treasuries not open yet due to a holiday in Japan.
Looking back at last week now, risk assets put in a strong performance, as the Fed delivered a 50bp rate cut and US data continued to point away from a downturn. That combination of the Fed easing into a soft landing has historically proved to be a very favourable one for US equities, and last week was no different, with the S&P 500 up by +1.36% over the week (-0.19% Friday). Moreover, the index hit another all-time high on Thursday, surpassing its previous record from mid-July and marking its 39th all-time high of 2024 so far.
That equity advance was supported by a strong advance for the Magnificent 7, which were up +2.63% over the week (despite -0.40% on Friday). Notwithstanding the slight softening on Friday, there was also an outperformance for banks on both sides of the Atlantic, with the S&P 500 banks index up +4.33% (-0.35% Friday), and the STOXX Banks up +2.67% (-0.10% Friday). Over in Asia, there were solid advances as well, with the Nikkei up +3.12% (+1.53% Friday). However, Europe didn’t share in these gains as the STOXX 600 was down -0.33% over the week after a -1.42% decline on Friday.
Other risk assets responded more positively, and US HY spreads came down -21bps over the week (+3bps Friday), whilst IG spreads were down -5bps (no change Friday). Similarly, Brent crude oil prices were up +4.02% over the week (-0.52% Friday), marking their strongest weekly performance since February. And with the Fed cutting rates by 50bps, there was a bit more concern about inflation again, which pushed gold prices up to a new all-time high in nominal terms of $2,622/oz, having risen by +1.71% over the week (+1.16% Friday).
Meanwhile for sovereign bonds, there was a more mixed performance, but a clear pattern was a curve steepening on both sides of the Atlantic. For instance, the US 2s10s yield curve ended the week at 14.6bps, which is its steepest level since June 2022, just before it became apparent that the Fed would accelerate their rate hikes up to a 75bp pace. That came as the 10yr yield rose +8.9bps (+2.7bps Friday) to 3.74%. Meanwhile in Germany, yields on 10yr bunds were up +5.9bps (+1.0bps Friday) to 2.21%.
2B) European report
USD and fixed bolstered by PMIs, US data & Fed speak ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Sep 23, 2024 – 05:14 AM
European equities are mixed/modestly firmer, a theme which is also seen across US futures
Dollar is firmer, benefiting from losses in the EUR after particularly poor French/German PMI metrics, AUD bid ahead of the RBA on Tuesday
USTs remain steady ahead of its own PMI release, Bunds were lifted after poor EZ PMIs & Gilts gained after UK PMIs missed across the board, but still point towards a “soft landing” for the UK economy
Crude is incrementally firmer, XAU and base metals are lower across the board
Looking ahead, US PMIs (Flash), Comments from ECB’s Cipollone, Fed’s Bostic, Kashkari & Goolsbee
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) began the session on a tentative footing, trading on either side of the unchanged mark. Indices then took a dip lower ahead of the French PMI metrics, in-fitting with a broader risk-off mood; a move which has since stabilised, with indices now generally sitting in positive territory. Today’s slew of PMI metrics had little impact on the complex.
European sectors hold a slight positive bias vs opening mixed, though the breadth of the market remains thin; Utilities takes the top spot alongside Telecoms. Banks lag given the takeover related weakness in Commerzbank (-3.6%). Consumer Products is also towards the foot of the pile, after several companies within the sector received downgrades at Bank of America.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.1% NQ +0.1% RTY +0.1%) are flat/very modestly firmer, taking impetus from a tentative session seen in Europe thus far. Today’s US-specific data docket remains light, with focus only on the US PMI release; there are a few Fed speakers today, including Goolsbee, Kashkari and Bostic.
“Speculation mounts over potential discontinuation of Nvidia’s (NVDA) H20 chip as US export review approaches”, according to Digitimes
DXY is boosted by the post-PMI softness in the EUR. DXY has moved back onto a 101 handle and eclipsed last Friday’s high at 101.01. The next target comes via the 19th September high at 101.47, which could be tested following the US PMI metrics.
EUR is the clear laggard across the majors after a raft of EZ-wide PMI data underscored the region’s soft growth outlook as the boost from the French Olympics proved to be short-lived. EUR/USD had been as high as 1.1167 overnight but has since slipped onto a 1.10 handle.
GBP is lower vs. the USD but firmer vs. the EUR given the EZ’s awful PMI metrics. Cable was already on the backfoot in the run up to UK PMI metrics with USD boosted by the soft EUR. UK PMI data showed misses across the board but failed to add to Cable’s downside.
JPY was initially softer vs. the USD and what looked to be an extension of Friday’s price action, but JPY has been able to claw back some gains vs. the USD. USD/JPY had been as high as 144.45, stopping just shy of Friday’s 144.49 peak.
AUD has trimmed its opening gains vs. the USD but is just about holding above the 0.68 mark. NZD/USD is currently contained within Friday’s 0.6210-60 range.
USTs are little changed overall but toward 114-26+ highs given the bullish-bias from the morning’s European data points (discussed below). US PMIs are on the docket today, with a few Fed speakers dotted across the day, including Bostic, Goolsbee and Kashkari.
A session of gains for EGBs, bolstered by a particularly poor set of Flash PMIs from France & Germany, with the nowcast for the latter pointing to a “0.2% decrease compared to the quarter before”. French number lifted Bunds to a 134.64 peak, before taking another leg higher following the German and EZ-wide figures to a session peak of 134.82; currently, Bunds sit around 134.55 and German yields are lower across the curve but with the short-end under more pressure than the long end.
OATs are also firmer, with the bulk of action driven by aforementioned data points. Additionally, there is renewed focus on the French political backdrop into the fast approaching constitutional deadline to put forward a budget on October 1st.
Gilts are propped up by the region’s own PMI release, which dropped from the prior by more than expected but remain indicative of a soft landing for the UK with services. The data took Gilts to a fleeting 100.00 peak, with resistance above at 100.09 from Friday and thereafter 100.39 from Thursday.
A choppy session for the crude complex this morning as the APAC geopolitical gains in the complex were wiped out amid risk aversion in European hours – not helped by the slew of dismal flash PMI data from the region, with the metrics overall endorsing the dovish bias. Brent’Nov in a USD 74.18-75.13/bbl parameter.
Lower trade across precious metals but spot gold is slightly more cushioned than its peers, with spot silver and spot palladium posting losses of over 2% as the Dollar strengthened. Spot gold resides in a USD 2,613.89-2,631.41/oz range.
Base metals are lower across the board as a function of the stronger Dollar and risk aversion, with little solace felt from the PBoC’s unscheduled 14-day reverse repo rate cut, although this was not much of a surprise. 3M LME copper has fallen back under USD 9,500/t.
Chinese Government to revamp tax rebates for fuel oil imports, with change likely effective from October, via Reuters citing sources; would raise import costs for independent refiners and curb fuel oil imports
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 47.2 vs. Exp. 48.2 (Prev. 48.4); “GDP nowcast for the current quarter, which considers the HCOB PMI among other indicators, now points to a 0.2% decrease compared to the quarter before. In the second quarter GDP already shrank at a rate of 0.1%”.
German HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 40.3 vs. Exp. 42.3 (Prev. 42.4); Services 50.6 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.2)
French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 47.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 53.1); “HCOB Nowcast predicts near stagnation in the French economy for the third quarter, compared to the previous one” & “September survey data signalled a marked easing of cost pressures, with input prices rising at the softest pace in close to four years.”
French HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 44.0 vs. Exp. 44.3 (Prev. 43.9); Services 48.3 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 55)
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Sep) 48.9 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 51); “With the ECB closely watching the persistently high inflation in services, the news that both input and output price inflation has slowed down is certainly welcome.”
EU HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Sep) 44.8 vs. Exp. 45.5 (Prev. 45.8); Services Flash PMI (Sep) 50.5 vs. Exp. 52.3 (Prev. 52.9)
UK Flash Composite PMI (Sep) 52.9 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.8); “The data therefore hint at a ‘soft landing’ for the UK economy”
UK Flash Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.5 vs. Exp. 52.5 (Prev. 52.5); Services PMI (Sep) 52.8 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 53.7)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
French PM Barnier did not rule out a tax hike for the rich and is open to changes in pension reform with input from employers and unions, while he said they must protect France’s credibility with investors and the government will take pragmatic measures to limit immigration.
French President’s Chief of Staff said Antoine Armand was named as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot was named as Foreign Minister, while Bruno Retailleau was named as Interior Minister.
German Chancellor Scholz’s SPD narrowly beat the far-right AfD in elections in the eastern state of Brandenburg as exit polls showed the SPD at 31%-32% vs AfD at 29%-30%, according to BBC.
Fitch affirmed Portugal at A- and revised the outlook to Positive.
ECB’s Kazaks says services inflation is a concern, as is slow growth; direction for rates is downward.
Spain’s Economy Minister says the Gov’t is lifting its 2024 GDP forecast to 2.7% (prev. 2.4%)
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US VP Harris is expected to release new economic proposals this week with the proposals aimed at middle-class wealth-building and the economic incentives for business to facilitate that, according to Reuters sources. It was also reported that Harris accepted a CNN debate invitation and challenged former President Trump to a debate although Trump rejected the offer and said it was ‘too late’ for another debate.
US House Republicans unveil three-month stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown which would fund the government through December 20th and omits changes to voter registration that Trump had called for.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“Renewed Israeli raids on southern Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia
Israeli PM Netanyahu said that they inflicted a series of blows on Hezbollah in the past few days that it never imagined.
Israel Defence Forces said during the weekend that it struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after over 100 rockets were fired towards northern Israel by the military group, while it added that strikes would continue and intensify against Hezbollah, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that IDF announced on Monday that it conducted widespread strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Israel’s Defence Minister said Hezbollah is beginning to feel some of Israel’s military capabilities and Israel will continue its operations against the group until northern Israel residents can return home safely, according to Reuters.
Israel’s military chief said operations against Hezbollah are a message to anyone in the Middle East looking to harm Israeli citizens, while he added that Hezbollah will keep getting hit until it understands that Israel will return its citizens to their homes safely. Furthermore, he said Israel is well-prepared for the next stages planned in the coming days, according to Reuters.
IDF spokesman said they have monitored preparations by Hezbollah to launch attacks on Israel and Hezbollah has turned southern Lebanon into a confrontation arena, while the spokesman added that they will hit Hezbollah hard and will work to reduce its power and keep it away from the border. Furthermore, Israeli media stated that warplanes attacked deep into Lebanon 120 km from the border, as well as noted that Hezbollah is preparing to carry out intensive attacks in the coming hours, while the IDF spokesman responded that the army will do whatever it takes to restore security to northern Israel when asked about the possibility of a ground incursion into Lebanon.
Hezbollah said it targeted Ramat David Airbase with dozens of missiles in response to repeated Israeli attacks on Lebanon, according to a statement. Hezbollah also stated its top commander Ahmed Wahbi was killed during Israel’s strike on Beirut suburbs.
Hezbollah’s Deputy Leader said the confrontation with Israel entered a new phase of an open-ended battle of reckoning.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched cruise missiles and explosive drones towards Israel’s north and south, while it said it targeted with drones a military post in northern Israel on Sunday morning and launched a drone attack on a target in Jordan Valley in ‘occupied territories’.
Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei said Israel is committing “shameless crimes” against children, not combatants, while he called for inner strength among Muslims to eliminate the ‘malignant cancerous tumour’ from Palestine.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they arrested 12 operatives collaborating with Israel and planning actions against Iran’s security, according to SNN.
US directly warned Israel against a full-blown war with Hezbollah, according to the FT. It was separately reported that the UN special coordinator in Lebanon said with the region on the brink of imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough that there is no military solution that will make either side safer, according to Reuters.
Qatari Al Jazeera TV said Israeli forces stormed its bureau in West Bank’s Ramallah with a military order to close it for 45 days.
A bomb explosion killed a police officer in the security details of foreign ambassadors in northwest Pakistan, while all foreign diplomats were safe and were reported to travel back to the capital of Islamabad.
OTHER
Ukrainian President Zelensky thanked the military for a new attack on Russian arsenal and said the end of the war against Russia depends on the decisiveness of Ukraine’s partners, as well as noted that Ukraine’s defences would be better if its partners provided the needed weapons and permission to use them.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russia hit Ukrainian energy facilities with high-precision weapons and drones, according to agencies.
Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will take no part in the follow-up to the Swiss-organised peace summit.
US official said Quad leaders expressed concern about the Russian-North Korean relationship, as well as about the South China Sea and maritime disputes.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin edges higher and climbs above USD 63.5k, with Ethereum also gaining and holding above USD 2.6k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with gains capped amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and as weekend newsflow was dominated by geopolitical-related headlines, while Japanese participants were away for the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
ASX 200 was led lower by the consumer-related sectors and with sentiment also not helped by a deterioration in the latest flash PMIs.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained after the PBoC cut the 14-day reverse repo rate ahead of next week’s National Day holiday although this was not much of a surprise given that it was the first such operation since the PBoC’s short-term funding rate cuts in July, while automakers were mixed after reports the Biden administration is to propose barring Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 160.1bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.70% and injected CNY 74.5bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate lowered by 10bps to 1.85% from 1.95%, which follows the cuts to other funding rates in July.
PBoC Governor Pan says will continue to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance and enhance precision of monetary policy adjustments.
US President Biden said his view is that Chinese President Xi is looking to buy diplomatic space to aggressively pursue China’s interests and is trying to minimise turbulence in diplomatic relations. Biden said that China continues to behave aggressively in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits, while he noted the US sees engagement with China as important for conflict prevention and crisis management, according to Reuters.
US President Biden’s administration is to propose barring Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles on US roads with the Commerce Department expected to propose making prohibitions on software effective in the 2027 model year and prohibitions on hardware would be in January 2029, according to Reuters sources.
US President Biden and Japanese PM Kishida reaffirmed a commitment to developing and protecting technologies like AI and semiconductors while increasing resilience to economic coercion, while they also discussed diplomacy with China and destabilising activities including in the South China Sea during a meeting on Saturday.
DATA RECAP
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 46.7 (Prev. 48.5); Services PMI Flash (Sep) 50.6 (Prev. 52.5)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 49.8 (Prev. 51.7)
Futures point to a firmer open, AUD outperforms; Flash PMIs ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
MONDAY, SEP 23, 2024 – 01:29 AM
APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with gains capped amid a lack of fresh macro drivers.
Israel Defence Forces said during the weekend that it struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon; added that strikes would continue and intensify.
European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 1.5% on Friday.
DXY is flat, AUD is the marginal outperformer, JPY the laggard, other majors are contained.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK, US PMIs (Flash), Comments from ECB’s Elderson & Cipollone, Fed’s Bostic, Kashkari & Goolsbee, Supply from the EU.
SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
US stocks were choppy on Friday amid quad witching but ultimately closed mixed in which the Dow slightly outperformed to print another record closing high while the S&P and Nasdaq finished with slight losses and the Russell 2000 was the worst hit, while sectors were predominantly lower with Industrial, Materials and Tech the laggards.
SPX -0.19% at 5,703, NDX -0.24% at 19,791, DJIA +0.09% at 42,063, RUT -1.10% at 2,228
US VP Harris is expected to release new economic proposals this week with the proposals aimed at middle-class wealth-building and the economic incentives for business to facilitate that, according to Reuters sources. It was also reported that Harris accepted a CNN debate invitation and challenged former President Trump to a debate although Trump rejected the offer and said it was ‘too late’ for another debate.
US House Republicans unveil three-month stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown which would fund the government through December 20th and omits changes to voter registration that Trump had called for.
Fed’s Bowman (voter) said on Friday regarding dissent that she agreed it was appropriate to recalibrate the Fed Funds Rate, but she preferred a smaller first move and sees a risk that the FOMC’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on inflation. Bowman added that they have not yet achieved the inflation goal and believes moving at a measured pace towards a more neutral policy stance will ensure further progress is made in returning inflation to the 2% goal.
Fed‘s Waller (voter) said on Friday that 50bps was the right number and they are at the point where the economy is strong and that they want to keep it that way. Waller said Core PCE is running below their target and inflation is softening much faster than he thought it was going to which is what made him support a 50bps cut, while he could imagine going 25bps at the next meeting or two if the data comes in fine but noted the Fed could do more if the labour market worsens and inflation data softens quicker, or could even pause depending on the data. Furthermore, he would support aggressive rate cuts and is fine with moving in 50bps to get to where they want to go if inflation is soft.
Fed’s Harker (non-voter) said on Friday that risks to inflation and employment are balanced, while he added that there are risks inflation could stall and the US labour market could soften.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly positive albeit with gains capped amid a lack of fresh macro drivers and as weekend newsflow was dominated by geopolitical-related headlines, while Japanese participants were away for the Autumnal Equinox holiday.
ASX 200 was led lower by the consumer-related sectors and with sentiment also not helped by a deterioration in the latest flash PMIs.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp gained after the PBoC cut the 14-day reverse repo rate ahead of next week’s National Day holiday although this was not much of a surprise given that it was the first such operation since the PBoC’s short-term funding rate cuts in July, while automakers were mixed after reports the Biden administration is to propose barring Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles.
US equity futures edged slightly higher (ES +0.3%) in a catalyst-light session and with market focus this week likely to be on the data releases, culminating with the Fed’s preferred inflation metric on Friday.
European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 1.5% on Friday.
FX
DXY traded flat beneath the 101.00 level in the absence of fresh catalysts and with PCE data due later this week, while there are flash PMI data releases from the US and comments from several Fed officials scheduled today.
EUR/USD was flat to start the week with little to spur price action and with some ECB commentary also due later.
GBP/USD took a breather after last week’s advances and just about remains in 1.3300 territory.
USD/JPY extends on its recent upside despite the lack of fresh developments and the absence of Japanese participants.
Antipodeans were kept afloat with AUD/USD marginally supported amid expectations for the RBA to keep rates on hold and stick to a hawkish tone in tomorrow’s rate announcement, while NZD/USD was indecisive following mixed trade data including weaker monthly exports.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures were lacklustre after last Friday’s whipsawing and with overnight cash treasuries trade shut due to the Tokyo closure.
Bund futures eked marginal gains just above the 134.00 level after exit polls showed German Chancellor Scholz’s SPD narrowly defeated the far-right AfD in the eastern German state of Brandenburg election.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures remained underpinned after last week’s gains and with weekend newsflow dominated by geopolitical-related headlines.
Spot gold was rangebound although slightly extended on its record all-time high north of the USD 2600/oz level.
Copper futures were contained amid a lack of fresh drivers and the somewhat contained risk appetite.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin gradually advanced overnight and climbed back above the USD 64,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
PBoC injected CNY 160.1bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate maintained at 1.70% and injected CNY 74.5bln via 14-day reverse repos with the rate lowered by 10bps to 1.85% from 1.95%, which follows the cuts to other funding rates in July.
US President Biden said his view is that Chinese President Xi is looking to buy diplomatic space to aggressively pursue China’s interests and is trying to minimise turbulence in diplomatic relations. Biden said that China continues to behave aggressively in the South China Sea and Taiwan Straits, while he noted the US sees engagement with China as important for conflict prevention and crisis management, according to Reuters.
US President Biden’s administration is to propose barring Chinese software and hardware in connected vehicles on US roads with the Commerce Department expected to propose making prohibitions on software effective in the 2027 model year and prohibitions on hardware would be in January 2029, according to Reuters sources.
US President Biden and Japanese PM Kishida reaffirmed a commitment to developing and protecting technologies like AI and semiconductors while increasing resilience to economic coercion, while they also discussed diplomacy with China and destabilising activities including in the South China Sea during a meeting on Saturday.
DATA RECAP
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Sep) 46.7 (Prev. 48.5)
Australian Judo Bank Services PMI Flash (Sep) 50.6 (Prev. 52.5)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Sep) 49.8 (Prev. 51.7)
New Zealand Trade Balance (Aug) -2203.0M (Prev. -963.0M, Rev. -1016M)
New Zealand Exports (Aug) 4.97B (Prev. 6.15B, Rev. 6.09B)
New Zealand Imports (Aug) 7.17B (Prev. 7.11B, Rev. 7.10B)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu said that they inflicted a series of blows on Hezbollah in the past few days that it never imagined.
Israel Defence Forces said during the weekend that it struck Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after over 100 rockets were fired towards northern Israel by the military group, while it added that strikes would continue and intensify against Hezbollah, according to Reuters. It was separately reported that IDF announced on Monday that it conducted widespread strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
Israel’s Defence Minister said Hezbollah is beginning to feel some of Israel’s military capabilities and Israel will continue its operations against the group until northern Israel residents can return home safely, according to Reuters.
Israel’s military chief said operations against Hezbollah are a message to anyone in the Middle East looking to harm Israeli citizens, while he added that Hezbollah will keep getting hit until it understands that Israel will return its citizens to their homes safely. Furthermore, he said Israel is well-prepared for the next stages planned in the coming days, according to Reuters.
IDF spokesman said they have monitored preparations by Hezbollah to launch attacks on Israel and Hezbollah has turned southern Lebanon into a confrontation arena, while the spokesman added that they will hit Hezbollah hard and will work to reduce its power and keep it away from the border. Furthermore, Israeli media stated that warplanes attacked deep into Lebanon 120 km from the border, as well as noted that Hezbollah is preparing to carry out intensive attacks in the coming hours, while the IDF spokesman responded that the army will do whatever it takes to restore security to northern Israel when asked about the possibility of a ground incursion into Lebanon.
Hezbollah said it targeted Ramat David Airbase with dozens of missiles in response to repeated Israeli attacks on Lebanon, according to a statement. Hezbollah also stated its top commander Ahmed Wahbi was killed during Israel’s strike on Beirut suburbs.
Hezbollah’s Deputy Leader said the confrontation with Israel entered a new phase of an open-ended battle of reckoning.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq launched cruise missiles and explosive drones towards Israel’s north and south, while it said it targeted with drones a military post in northern Israel on Sunday morning and launched a drone attack on a target in Jordan Valley in ‘occupied territories’.
Iran’s Supreme leader Khamenei said Israel is committing “shameless crimes” against children, not combatants, while he called for inner strength among Muslims to eliminate the ‘malignant cancerous tumour’ from Palestine.
Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei’s Chief of Staff said on Friday that a response to Haniyeh’s assassination will come soon, according to Al Arabiya.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they arrested 12 operatives collaborating with Israel and planning actions against Iran’s security, according to SNN.
US directly warned Israel against a full-blown war with Hezbollah, according to the FT. It was separately reported that the UN special coordinator in Lebanon said with the region on the brink of imminent catastrophe, it cannot be overstated enough that there is no military solution that will make either side safer, according to Reuters.
Qatari Al Jazeera TV said Israeli forces stormed its bureau in West Bank’s Ramallah with a military order to close it for 45 days.
A bomb explosion killed a police officer in the security details of foreign ambassadors in northwest Pakistan, while all foreign diplomats were safe and were reported to travel back to the capital of Islamabad.
OTHER
Ukrainian President Zelensky thanked the military for a new attack on Russian arsenal and said the end of the war against Russia depends on the decisiveness of Ukraine’s partners, as well as noted that Ukraine’s defences would be better if its partners provided the needed weapons and permission to use them.
Russian Defence Ministry said Russia hit Ukrainian energy facilities with high-precision weapons and drones, according to agencies.
Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow will take no part in the follow-up to the Swiss-organised peace summit.
US official said Quad leaders expressed concern about the Russian-North Korean relationship, as well as about the South China Sea and maritime disputes.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
French PM Barnier did not rule out a tax hike for the rich and is open to changes in pension reform with input from employers and unions, while he said they must protect France’s credibility with investors and the government will take pragmatic measures to limit immigration.
French President’s Chief of Staff said Antoine Armand was named as Finance Minister and Jean-Noel Barrot was named as Foreign Minister, while Bruno Retailleau was named as Interior Minister.
German Chancellor Scholz’s SPD narrowly beat the far-right AfD in elections in the eastern state of Brandenburg as exit polls showed the SPD at 31%-32% vs AfD at 29%-30%, according to BBC.
Fitch affirmed Portugal at A- and revised the outlook to Positive.
2 JAPAN
JAPAN
3 CHINA
CHINA/
CHINA’S economy is imploding!
China Launches More Stimulus: PBOC Cuts Rates, Announces Rare Press Conference On Support For Economy
MONDAY, SEP 23, 2024 – 01:05 PM
One month ago, when describing the rapid deterioration in China’s economy – including the crumbling welfare state, the country’s dwindling savings rate, the soaring youth unemployment and jump in labor strikes and overall social discontent – we said that despite its stubborn unwillingness to stimulate the economy, “Beijing will have no choice but to blink in the end, and that will mean unleashing a much delayed stimulus bazooka that likes of which have not been seen yet.”
Then, last Friday, when pointing out the record plunge in the China’s all-important M1 monetary aggregate…
… we said that it’s time for China to turn on the printing press.
We had to wait just a few hours for this prediction to come true, and while it’s not the full-blown massive bazooka we expect will be revealed in due course (as the alternative is civil insurrection), overnight China’s central bank lowered a key short-term policy rate and pumped more liquidity into the financial system, in its latest effort to boost the sagging economy.
Early on Monday, the People’s Bank of China cut the 14-day reverse repurchase interest rate by 10 basis points to 1.85%, and injected 74.5 billion yuan, equivalent to $10.6 billion, of liquidity via the policy tool, it said on its website.
The latest cut is a reflection of the reduction in the 7-day reverse repo rate in July, during which the PBOC didn’t conduct a 14-day reverse repo operation, said Zhiwei Zhang, an economist at Pinpoint Asset Management.
The central bank also injected 160.1 billion yuan through 7-day reverse repo agreements, keeping the interest rate unchanged at 1.7%, it said Monday.
Last week, the PBOC unexpectedly held its benchmark lending rates steady, despite rising expectations for easing following the U.S. Federal Reserve’s own rate cut. But with its economy in shambles, it’s just a matter of time before Beijing scrambles to catch down to the Fed.
Economists anticipate the Chinese central bank will lower its 7-day reverse repo rate—now seen as the key rate for pricing benchmark lending rates—in the coming months, as the Fed’s cut gives it more room for monetary policy easing.
But more important than the rate cut, China also announced plans for a rare briefing on the economy by three top financial regulators fueling speculation officials are preparing to ramp up efforts to revive growth. According to Bloomberg, authorities announced that central bank governor Pan Gongsheng will hold a press conference tomorrow on financial support for economic development, alongside two other officials. Minutes later, the People’s Bank of China lowered the 14-day reverse repurchase rate, catching up with reductions initiated in July.
The moves bolstered expectations that PBOC will further lower rates, after the US Federal Reserve finally started cutting last week easing pressure on China’s need to defend its currency. A slew of disappointing data in August raised concerns that President Xi Jinping’s government could not only miss its annual growth target of around 5% without unleashing more support, but is gambling with a total deflationary collapse of the Chinese economy, where housing is now at the lowest level since the global crisis.
Meanwhile, traders understandably are pricing in more stimulus, with the yield on China’s 10-year government bonds falling to a fresh low of 2.03% in the Monday morning session. The benchmark CSI 300 Index for onshore stocks marked their fourth straight day of increases, the longest streak in two months.
“I do expect the PBOC to cut the 7-day reverse repo rate as well as the reserve requirement ratio in the coming months,” said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. The briefing will give regulators a chance to “shed light on their policy stance,” he added.
Others were more willing to cut to the chase: according to Evercore ISI’s Neo Wang, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng’s planned presence at a rare joint briefing by top financial regulators scheduled for Tuesday makes a cut to reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions look likely. Pan may personally announce the RRR reduction, just like he did at a Jan. 24 press conference, two weeks ahead of time, when authorities tried to halt a $6 trillion stock-market rout. Wang said that the medium-term lending facility maturity wall before year-end also justifies a RRR reduction, and added that the presser is also valuable for any hint at the likelihood of future loan prime rate cuts.
That event kicks off at 9 a.m. — 20 minutes before the PBOC’s daily announcement on its short-term policy loans and their costs, in contrast to more typical 10 a.m. start times.
While the Fed’s bigger-than-expected half-percentage point slash has given central banks across Asia more room to move, not all are immediately following suit. Indonesia’s central bank unexpectedly reduced its main rate last week, but the Bank of Australia is set to hold on Tuesday, echoing last week’s decision by Japan’s monetary authority which is on a hiking path.
Unfortunately, even another RRR cut is unlikely to achieve much: China’s string of rate cuts has done nothing to stimulate an economy that most recently expanded at the slowest pace in five quarters, and to contain a years-long real estate crisis that’s wiped out an estimated $18 trillion in wealth from households has crushed appetite for spending and pushed China into its longest streak of deflation since 1999.
That means real interest rates — which are adjusted for changes in prices — have stayed elevated, weakening the impact of any moderate easing. A plunge in revenue from land sales has also held back fiscal spending, leaving indebted local governments struggling to pay their bills and with little bandwidth to invest in growth-boosting projects.
Now, the focus is on whether China’s fourth-quarter growth can get “remotely close” to the annual target, said Ken Wong, Asia equity portfolio specialist at Eastspring Investments, adding that a 4.8% expansion looked most likely for 2024. “Monetary policy could help,” he said, “but ultimately getting the consumer to spend, and building up consumer confidence, is going to be key to China.”
Economists in a Bloomberg poll pinpointed enforcement of the housing rescue package China unveiled in May as the single most-impactful way officials can give the economy a kick. So far, uptake has been weak with only 29 of some 200 cities heeding the call to absorb a housing glut.
“It is also needed for the PBOC to guide lower the interest rates on existing mortgages,” said Credit Agricole Chief China Economist Xiaojia Zhi, responding to the Monday cut. Regulators are also working on a proposal that would allow mega cities such as Shanghai and Beijing to relax restrictions for non-local buyers, Bloomberg News previously reported.
The PBOC’s decision to lower the 14-day rate to 1.85% from 1.95% Monday came ahead of the week-long nationwide break that begins Oct 1. The central bank typically offers fortnight-long loans ahead of extended breaks, previously doing so in February ahead of the week-long Lunar New Year break. The last time officials cut the RRR came on the cusp of the Lunar New Year holiday, as they looked to smooth liquidity.
“A bigger package is needed” than Monday’s 10-basis-point trim, said ANZ Chief Greater China Economist Raymond Yeung. “Other policy measures in the tool box such as RRR cut, MLF cut and mortgage rate cut will likely be announced.”
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
Sweden
Very Few Migrants Interested In Sweden’s Remigration Offer Worth €31,000
Despite being offered €31,000 to remigrate by the Swedish government, polling shows that very few migrants would accept the offer.
As Remix News previously reported, the Swedish government is making a significant monetary offer of 350,000 Swedish kroner to foreigners living in Sweden to voluntarily return home. It is also important to note that this amount would be paid out per person, which means a family of four could receive €124,000.
Still, these foreigners are so desperate to live in Sweden, a majority White country, that the vast majority of them said they would reject the offer, according to a poll conducted by the website Alkompis.
The poll showed that 77 percent of those questioned in the survey said that they were not even interested in the increased amount, and only 15 percent said that they would be interested in the offer. The others are uncertain.
However, of those 15 percent who said they were interested in the offer, it is possible that very few of them would actually go ahead and accept the offer. Despite these low numbers, even a small percentage of foreigners accepting the offer could result in tens of thousands of people remigrating.
The poll also revealed that 90 percent of the more than 2,700 respondents had already heard about the increased repatriation subsidy.
The poll also asked the respondents if they would be open to accepting an even higher amount, and it is important to note a strong majority said they would never accept any offer. Theoretically, even if they were offered millions of euros to return to their homelands, they would still not take the offer.
The poll showed that among the 77 percent who said no to the €31,000, they were also asked whether they would accept a higher amount. Sixty-six percent of them answered that they would never return to their country, while 25 percent would consider going home for more money.
Twenty-three percent of the respondents would consider returning for an amount of 1 million Swedish kronor, which is the equivalent of €88,000.
In many of the countries these immigrants are from, such a sum is an incredible fortune. For instance, in Afghanistan, the average annual salary is €1,000.
However, Swedish benefits for migrants and illegal migrants are also extremely generous, and unlike Middle Eastern and African countries, Sweden features efficient and highly organized hospitals, sanitation systems, schools and universities, and modern infrastructure.
To get something done or even move freely, nobody needs to bribe officials or police officers. In some of the countries these migrants are from, there is no guarantee that the money they receive from the Swedish government would even be secure.
Under the current plan, the offer will go into effect on Jan. 1, 2026, with tens of millions of euros already slated in the budget for the remigration effort.
In order to ensure that the recipients of repatriation support do not travel to Sweden again with a different identity, which has happened with many who have been deported, emigrants will have to record biometric data.
“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” is a popular quote attributed to Mark Twain, and is an important concept to think about with the current state of the world amid ramping geopolitical tensions and deteriorating economic conditions.
Roughly 100 years ago, ‘rhyming’ circumstances were setting the stage for the Great Depression and a Second World War, and if we aren’t careful, there is the potential for the global economy to sink into a deep recession/depression while chatter about the potential for World War 3 is also on the rise.
With major conflicts now including Ukraine v. Russia, the growing threat of Russia v. NATO, Israel v. Palestine, Israel and the U.S. v. Iran, and China threatening Taiwan, among others, while we cannot say that WWIII is underway, it’s not a stretch to say that we are a world at war.
Naturally, the circumstances the world finds itself in are causing consternation for investors, who desperately want to maintain their wealth despite the mounting headwinds they face in doing so, leading many to question if gold, and to a lesser extent, Bitcoin (BTC), could potentially offer protection.
Kitco Crypto reached out to experts on geopolitical and financial matters to get their take on the likelihood of World War III happening in the foreseeable future and what it would mean for gold and Bitcoin.
“There are two forces at work here,” said Martin Armstrong, an economic forecaster and founder of Armstrong Economics.
“First, we have the Neocons who have waged endless wars since the 1960s.”
“Even Robert MacNamara wrote a book and on YouTube you will see his interview before he died explaining they thought Russia was behind Vietnam, but they were wrong; it was just a civil war,” he noted. “You can examine every war and you will find it was based on lies. Tony Blair’s video on YouTube is his Apology for the Iraq War. Again, they were wrong.”
“The Neocons have been relentless in their thirst for endless wars,” Armstrong said. “You have Blinken threatening China over Taiwan when they held 10% of the US debt. That are now net sellers. They only see war – not the economics or the country.”
“Second, virtually every country in Europe is now chanting war with Russia thanks to NATO, also a Neocon organization,” he highlighted. “The monetary system of the West is based on endless deficits spending. The default comes regardless of the debt level. The default in these Ponzi scheme unfolds when they cannot find a buyer for the new debt that enables them to pay off the old.”
“This is what we now face for the first time because Biden/Harris Administration has allowed the Neocons to run foreign policy,” Armstrong said. “Governments now NEED to create WWIII for like WWII, all of Europe defaulted on their debt, Britain went into a moratorium, but defaulted on the loans from the USA.”
He suggested that this is the real reason behind the surge in governments exploring the creation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).
“This is the real issue behind pushing for CBDCs to eliminate physical money and then everything is traceable,” Armstrong said. “I have spoken with government on both sides of the Atlantic. They assume moving to digital, they will increase tax collection by 35% and terminate the underground economy.”
“Europe routinely cancels its paper currency to prevent people from hoarding cash,” he noted. “America has never done that, which is why the dollar has been the reserve currency someone in China can hold dollars but not euros. Also, the US is a consumer-based economy, so this is why the dollar has been the reserve currency, for Europe needs to see to Americans, as do Asians.”
As for what the potential for WW3 means for investors, Armstrong said it underscores the need to invest in tangible assets.
“Because they will default on debts in the West and this is universal, the only safe place for capital long-term has been tangible assets,” he said. “Some have called it the Everything Bubble, for they do not understand that this is a divestiture from public assets to private.”
“This has been precious metals, real estate, and shares with tangible assets,” he highlighted. “Precious metals in the form of coins will most likely become the currency of the underground economy. Even if you look at the German Hyperinflation, the replacement currency in 1925 was backed by real estate. Tangible assets survive the collapse of currencies.”
As for the effect a major global conflict would have on financial markets, Armstrong said that governments are prepared for this and will take full advantage of it to ‘solve’ their growing list of economic problems.
“Governments are not stupid. They will seek to impose capital control to prevent capital fleeing,” he said. “This will most likely dominate Europe. Just look at the actions they take during war.”
“Abraham Lincoln closed the gold market before it reached $200 in greenbacks in 1864 and claimed people were making money off the blood of others,” he noted. “During World War I, all of Europe closed the share markets, fearing people would sell and take their money to America. The US share market crash by 10% on anticipation that it too would close, which it did the week of July 27th, and did not reopen until December 7th. This was again for capital controls fearing Europeans would sell US shares and take the money home, which did not happen.”
“The lesson we must learn historically from wars is that governments will impose capital controls, and this may be when they attempt to switch canceling paper dollars and forcing everyone into CBDCs,” Armstrong warned.
If this were to occur, “Physical gold and silver will be the only form of money to survive under these conditions,” Armstrong said.
As for ‘digital gold’ and the growing cryptocurrency ecosystem, he warned that they “are entirely dependent on the PowerGrid.”
“As you see already in Europe, targeting people for comments is unfolding just as it has been shown that the Biden Administration conspired with social media to censor and create the cancel culture to shut down free speech,” he noted. “Anything that will transact through the internet will be vulnerable to the government assuming the PowerGrid is even functioning during war.”
For these reasons, Armstrong suggested it would be “best that precious metals are in the form of recognizable coins that the uneducated will accept, such as a $20 gold piece or silver coins dated pre-1965.”
When asked if alternative currencies could benefit from a world where certain countries shun the currencies of adversaries, Armstrong stressed that “All currencies are fiat.”
“The real scheme with these CBDCs is that the IMF is planning to replace the dollar and have already quietly created their own digital currency, and because of the sanctions the US imposed on Russia removing them from SWIFT, this is what gave the drive to establish BRICS.”
“It was geopolitical, not fiat-based,” he added. “The US threatened China with the same sanctions if they helped Russia. Countries realized that the American Neocons have used the dollar as a weapon, and that is what divided the world economy.”
As for going back to a gold standard, Armstong noted that the main problem with doing so is that people have become so accustomed to valuing things in fixed fiat terms that they don’t know another way to approach determining the true value of things.
“A gold standard has always failed when it has been fixed to a specific value,” he said. “Bretton Woods collapsed because you fixed gold at $35 per ounce, but you did not limit the amount of dollars created. A three-year-old could figure out such a system would collapse.”
“The only gold standard that has ever survived is when its value freely floated,” Armstrong stressed. “The Byzantine Empire was based purely on gold that floated in value, it too collapsed due to wars and spending that was unrestrained.”
“As Margaret Thatcher once said, socialism works until you run out of other people’s money,” he noted. “The same can be said of government relentless spending to retain power.”
Asked whether the powers that be could use an escalation in war to overshadow a potential economic collapse, Armstrong said, “Wars have been the driving force behind all monetary crises.”
“The value of a currency is always based on confidence,” he explained. “When the Roman Emperor Valerian I was captured in battle in 260 AD by the Persians, despite the fact that coinage was of precious metals, they still carried a premium over the precious metal because, like the dollar today, Rome was the consumer economy that everyone wanted to sell to. India routinely struct imitation Roman gold coins illustrating that there was a premium to the gold when struck by Rome.”
“The Roman Emperor Diocletian attempted to reintroduce silver that had vanished from circulation following the capture of Valerian I 26 years later in 286 AD,” he added. “He raised of the weight of gold coins from a norm of about 70–72 to the Roman pound to one of 60 to the Roman pound. The silver coinage was reintroduced at a rate of 96 to the Roman pound. And he introduced of the so-called follis—a copper coin of about 10 gm.”
“Just as Diocletian revised the monetary system and imposed wage and price controls to tackle inflation, we will see the same unfold,” Armstrong warned. “We will most likely see the US and Europe break apart into separate governments.”|
“Most people are unaware that during the Great Depression, over 200 cities issued their own money and collectors refer to these as Depression Scrip,” he highlighted.
“Currencies will also be fiat to some degree, for even when they were gold, they carried a premium based on their economic status,” Armstrong said. “We blame the currencies rather than governments. This is like a murderer claiming it was the gun that killed the people, not that he pulled the trigger. This is going to result in the fall of Republican forms of government.”
“Hopefully, this next version will be a real democracy where We the People decide do we go to war – yes or no,” he concluded. “The last cycle was the end of Monarchy. This one will be the end of republics, which tend to be the most corrupt in history. There was a major debt crisis in Rome and that is why when Caesar crossed the Rubicon, he did not have to fight his way to Rome, the senate fled, and the people cheered. This will unfold again by 2032 as it is becoming wider understood that governments are corrupt and in trouble worldwide.”
USD is too big to fail
Despite the rising number of smaller regional conflicts, Adam Koprucki, founder of RealWorldInvestor.com, doesn’t see a larger global conflict forming.
“It’s unlikely regional conflicts are going to morph into something larger,” he said. “The current administration has done a good job of stepping in where needed, but also drawing hard boundaries so they don’t risk driving up global tensions.”
That said, he noted that global tensions “always have an impact, the key is to monitor to see if the tensions will get worse, that’s when investors should worry. A major global conflict would likely disrupt supply chains and cause immediate and severe shocks in the financial market.”
As for a potential exodus from the U.S. dollar in favor of gold or Bitcoin, Koprucki said that “Unless there is concern about the stability of the U.S. dollar or severe inflation,” he doesn’t think “investors would immediately flock to gold, but more likely so than Bitcoin – which is still extremely volatile.”
When asked if alternative currencies could benefit from a world where certain countries shun the fiat currencies of adversaries, Koprucki said, “Sure, but those countries who would embrace alternative currencies likely already have an unstable fiat currency, so their adaption may not cause further adaption.”
“I think fiat currencies are generally here to stay,” Koprucki concluded. “A transition to another currency would be unheard of. As long as the U.S. government is backing the dollar, it will remain the preeminent currency. The world is too interconnected and dependent on the US Dollar now.”
Bitcoin in a WWIII scenario
“As global tensions rise, the possibility of regional conflicts escalating into a World War III scenario remains uncertain, but the financial implications are clear,” said Dr. Tonya M. Evans, Esq., an expert in crypto policy and law and full professor of law at Dickinson Law. “Historically, wars weaken fiat currencies, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold. However, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are emerging as new alternatives.”
“Bitcoin’s decentralized nature makes it a valuable hedge against inflation and currency devaluation, especially in regions where traditional banking systems may collapse,” she said. “Unlike fiat currencies, Bitcoin’s supply is capped, which protects it from inflationary pressures exacerbated by conflict.”
Evans suggested, “In a global conflict scenario, Bitcoin (in particular) could serve as both a trusted store of value and an alternative and censorship-resistant means of transferring wealth across borders, particularly for those seeking to avoid sanctions or economic fallout.”
“While gold remains a trusted safe haven, Bitcoin’s portability and accessibility offer a distinct advantage in times of crisis,” she concluded. “In my opinion, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies provide a unique opportunity for financial resilience, potentially becoming even more crucial as the world navigates increasing geopolitical instability.”
Gold to be the go-to safe haven
To help predict what would happen if a global war were to escalate, Jim Cagnina, market analyst at NinjaTrader, used several recent examples to support his outlook.
“Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and since then, the S&P 500 is up approximately 27.5%. Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, and since then the S&P 500 is up approximately 29.7%,” he noted. “US-based risk assets anchored around regulated exchanges, on the longer term, are sensitive to domestic fundamental factors such as interest rates and inflation. If anything, geopolitical tensions outside the US tend to prop up US-based assets.”
“On-shoring or near-shoring capabilities of the US are more formidable than in the past,” he added. “A good example is the construction of the new 1,100-acre development of TSMC’s advanced semiconductor manufacturing fabrication facility in Phoenix, Arizona. As things get tense overseas, the US can and will pivot.”
Cagnina said another potential result would be a shakeup in the oil market.
“Regarding Crude Oil, OPEC+ seems to be losing its primacy with respect to setting global oil prices,” he noted. “With a potential increase in production being contemplated by OPEC+, the attitude seems to be ‘if you can’t beat them, join them.’”
As for Bitcoin, Cagnina said, in his opinion, it is “too esoteric and volatile to be considered a flight to quality investment.”
“In my experience, most investors struggle to explain what Bitcoin is and its practical purpose clearly,” he said. “Bitcoin futures average true range based on a 14-day look back is over $3,000 or more than 5% on any given day. I would think that flight to quality assets would not typically subject investors to 5% daily fluctuations, which would defeat the purpose. Furthermore, the supply of Bitcoin is highly inelastic, more so than gold.”
“Gold, on the other hand, can act as a flight to safety instrument,” Cagnina added. “Major industrial countries that can afford it have been adding to their gold reserves, most notably the US, Russia, China, Japan, Singapore, and Brazil. I would argue that this is one of the main reasons for gold’s recent appreciation. This accumulation of reserves will reduce supply for the rest of us resulting in additional appreciation as investors completely buy in.”
As for the U.S. dollar, he said he believes that “the US will maintain its world reserve currency status.”
“The dominance of US foreign aid contributions and that of the European Union helps lock emerging economies’ dependency on the US dollar and EURO concerning transactions for goods and services,” he noted. “Central clearing, strong GDP, and strong contract law will be barriers for alternative currencies becoming dominant.”
“In my opinion, if there is another major global war, it will look and be fought completely differently than in the past,” Cagnina concluded. “The currencies that will do well, I think, will be between alliances that can maintain good contract law during the conflict. Deep pockets certainly will help. Having said that, let’s pray that a World War II level conflict never happens.”
end
EUROPE
European PMIs Plunge After Olympics Hangover Hammers France
Monday, Sep 23, 2024 – 08:18 AM
The Euro area composite flash PMI plunged by 2.1pt to 48.9 in September, notably below expectations. The deceleration in the composite index was driven by the services sector, where the index fell (by 2.4pt) to 50.5, with manufacturing output contracting, printing at 44.5.
Euro Area Composite PMI (Sep, Flash): 48.9, GS 50.6, consensus 50.5, last 51.0.
Euro Area Manufacturing PMI (Sep, Flash): 44.8, GS 45.8, consensus 45.7, last 45.8.
Euro Area Services PMI (Sep, Flash): 50.5, GS 52.4, consensus 52.3, last 52.9.
This was driven not only by a big pay-back out of France, reflecting the post-Olympics adjustment, but also by pronounced weakness in Germany, and a slowing periphery.
The composition of the September report showed a decline in new orders and new export orders, with employment falling further below 50, mostly driven by a notably weak reading out of Germany, where the employment index posted a sizeable month-on-month decline.
This was mostly driven by the manufacturing sector, and “this comes as several major automotive suppliers have announced significant job reductions”.
Business confidence continued to decline in September, dropping for the fourth consecutive month to its lowest value this year. Turning to price pressures, the input price components edged down notably in September, driven by both sectors, and the output price index declined as well, across both sectors, with “a weakening demand environment contributing to softer inflationary pressures in September”.
Across Euro area regions:
France: The French composite flash PMI fell by 5.7pt to 47.4 in September, notably below consensus and our expectations. The decline was mostly driven by the services sectors, with the index falling (by 6.7pt) to 58.3, reversing the Olympics-related August strength and falling even lower than the July reading, and by manufacturing, where the output index fell (by 1.0pt) to 42.8
Germany: The German composite flash PMI decreased by 1.2pt to 47.2 in September, below consensus and our expectations. The deceleration was broad-based across sectors, skewed towards manufacturing, where the output index fell (by 2.3pt) to 40.5, its 12-month low.
Periphery: The periphery composite PMI decreased by 0.7pt to 51.1, driven by a broad-based deceleration across sectors.
Goldman Sachs sees several main takeaways from today’s data.
First, we see a notable downside surprise in the Euro area driven not only by a big pay-back out of France, reflecting the post-Olympics adjustment, but also by pronounced weakness in Germany, and a slowing periphery. While the services sector drove the decline, manufacturing remains subdued, with Germany and France leading the area-wide deceleration in the manufacturing output.
Second, the employment numbers in the Euro area seem to exhibit continued weakness, with employment contracting for the second month in a row. We would thus watch closely the upcoming labour market releases: unemployment rate for Germany (Friday, September 27th) and the Euro area (Wednesday, October 2).
Third, the PMI price components showed benign developments this month in the Euro area, with cost pressures and prices charged declining, driven by “weakening demand”. Lastly, in the UK, despite a slight decline in the indices, activity picture remains firm, while price developments are mixed in September.
Overall, deteriorating activity in Northern Europe adds pressure on the ECB to recalibrate to easier policy, though with the cautious tone from Lagarde and others recently, the base case remains for a hold at the October meeting, with consecutive 25bp cuts thereafter.
On the Euro, after a sharp move lower in EUR/USD on today’s release, Goldman’s recently updated forecasts imply some room for further downside into year-end.
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
END
end
ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON
FRIDAY NIGHT
Israel says at least 10 commanders of Elite Hezbollah eliminated
(zerohedge)
Israel Says 10 Commanders Of Elite Hezbollah Unit Eliminated In Beirut Airstrike
SATURDAY, SEP 21, 2024 – 06:33 AM
Update(1305ET): The Israeli military has announced its air strike in Beirut Friday afternoon which killed Ibrahim Aqil, the chief of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit, additionally killed in total some ten commanders of the Shia paramilitary group.
“We targeted those responsible for the daily rocket fire, Ibrahim Aqil along with senior commanders from the Radwan force. About 10 commanders were killed there,” Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the IDF, told a media briefing.
Lebanese sources have yet to confirm this, but have instead focused on the mounting civilian casualties. Lebanon has in its latest update said 12 total have been killed, without identifying who they were. Official tallies stand at 66+ wounded. “Removing the rubble is still ongoing until this moment,” emergency workers said.
* * *
Update(1240ET): The death toll has continued to grow following the Friday after Israeli aerial strike on a southern suburb of Beirut. Lebanon’s Health Ministry says nine people have been killed and at least 59 injured, as emergency crews continue picking though the rubble of a leveled residential building.
Authorities say children are also among the victims in the neighborhood of Dahiyeh, which is densely populated. The Israeli Army says it has killed a top Hezbollah commander, identified as Ibrahim Akil; however, Hezbollah has yet to confirm or deny. He’s said to have served as head of the group’s elite special forces. The state-run Lebanese National News Agency has said five children are among the dead.
Currently some big claims are coming out of Israeli leadership, though these statements remains unconfirmed on the ground… if true it will be a huge blow to Hezbollah:
🚨🚨An Israeli official said that the entire senior command of Hezbollah's Radwan force was eliminated in the strike (around 20 commanders) https://t.co/wtUzmRShhD
The Iranian Embassy in Beirut has meanwhile condemned what it called the “Israeli madness” of targeting residential buildings.
* * *
Many international headlines are claiming that this is not yet ‘all-out war’ between Israel and Hezbollah, but it is sure looking like a full-fledged war at this point, especially given on Friday Israeli aircraft carried out a major strike on Beirut.
Huge explosions could be seen and heard for miles, in an apparent “targeted strike” on a southern suburb of the capital city. Reports say that senior Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Akil was killed in the attack. An official has told AFP he was killed in the strike.
Videos and images from the scene show entire blocks and buildings decimated in the heavily-populated area known as Dahiyeh.
Beirut-based Al-Mayadeen TV is saying that a drone fired several missiles on the area in a very rare and brazen attack on the capital. But a Lebanese national broadcaster has said it was Israeli Air Force Jets:
Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) is reporting that five children are among victims of a strike on a building in the area of Jamous Street, southern Beirut.
The agency added that an F35 jet targeted the residential area with two strikes.
Earlier in the day Friday Hezbollah launched at least 140 rockets on northern Israel, in a steady uptick of attacks since Thursday in the wake of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah’s speech vowing not to stop the attacks in the wake of Israeli intelligence’s pager attack.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
Jerusalem Post/Saturday
IDF confirms assassination of Ibrahim Aqil, names 15 Hezbollah commanders killed in strike
These Hezbollah commanders have been orchestrating attacks against Israel for years.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 21, 2024 16:01Updated: SEPTEMBER 21, 2024 16:55
Hezbollah commanders in the Radwan Force killed in the IDF September 20 strike on Beirut, September 21, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Israel Air Force jets, guided by the Intelligence Directorate, killed Ibrahim Aqil, in addition to 15 other Hezbollah Radwan Force commanders, during a meeting in the Dahieh neighborhood of Beirut on Friday evening, the IDF confirmed in a statement issued Saturday afternoon.
Among the terrorists killed was Abu Hassan Samir, who served as the head of the Radwan Force training unit.
He held various positions within Hezbollah and was commander of the Radwan Force for a decade until early 2024.
Samir was one of the orchestrators of the “Conquer the Galilee” attack plan. He was involved in furthering Hezbollah’s entrenchment in southern Lebanon while strengthening the terrorist organization’s ground combat abilities.
The Radwan Force commander had planned and executed numerous shooting attacks and infiltrations into Israeli territory.
Hezbollah military chain of command, September 21, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Additional Hezbollah commanders who were killed in the strike
The additional Radwan Force commanders who were killed in the strike were Samer Abdul-Halim Halawi, commander of the coastal area; Abbas Sami Maslamani, commander of the Qana area; Abdullah Abbas Hajazi, commander of the Ramim Ridge area; Muhammed Ahmad Reda, commander of the Al-Khiam area; and Hassan Hussein Madi, commander of the Mount Dov area.
These commanders have been leading attacks against Israel for years.
Additionally, senior officials in Hezbollah and within the Radwan Force headquarters were killed. These include Hassan Yussef Abad Alssatar, who was responsible for Radwan Force operations. He led and advanced all of the force’s rocket fire operations.
Hussein Ahmad Dahraj, Chief of Staff of the Radwan Force, was also killed in the strike. He was involved in the transfer of weapons and the strengthening of the organization.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH LEBANON
Hezbollah rockets hit house, crash on Highway 89 near Safed
Approximately 180 rockets were dismantled as the IDF struck several targets in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah’s attack, the military reported.
A member of a rescue team speaks to a man as rescue teams work to extinguish flames on a house following a rocket attack from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 21, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/JIM URQUHART)
A house was directly hit by a Hezbollah rocket in Keitiya near Safed after dozens of rockets were launched against the North on Saturday afternoon, Walla reported.
Additionally, a rocket fired by Hezbollah crashed on Highway 89 near Safed, according to Israel Police. Shortly after, the road was briefly blocked to traffic.
The IDF later reported that 90 rockets were seen crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory.
Home Front Command later instructed residents in several localities in the western Galilee to stay close to bomb shelters and limit movement within their towns. These localities include Rosh Hanikra, Shlomi, Hanita, Betzet, Matzuva, Liman, Mishmar Ayalon, Adamit, and Arab el-Aramsha.
Dozens of missiles were fired into the Galilee, ten of which were fired into Kiryat Shmona, according to the IDF. Ten fire teams have begun working to put out several fires that broke out in the Biriya Forest.
An Israeli police officer handles part of a rocket after it was fired towards Israel from Lebanon, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, in northern Israel, September 20, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/JIM URQUHART)
Fires that also broke out in Beit Hillel and Gush Halav have been brought under control.
Police officers and bomb disposal units from the Northern District arrived at the sites where the rockets fell, and they are scanning to remove any materials that are dangerous to the public.
IDF fires back at Hezbollah targets
Approximately 180 rockets were dismantled as the IDF struck several targets in southern Lebanon following Hezbollah’s attack, the military reported. Additionally, IDF artillery struck a number of areas in southern Lebanon.
Over the past hour on Saturday, the Israel Air Force struck thousands of rocket launchers that were ready for immediate use to fire at Israel.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL/BEIRUT/ANALYSIS
The gloves are off’: Beirut strike signals end of symmetry with Hezbollah, expert says
“Part of the decision is that there is no intention to continue playing this symmetric game that Israel has been playing with Hezbollah so far,” Lt. Col. (res.) Yaron Buskila told Maariv.
By PELED ARBELISEPTEMBER 21, 2024 09:10Updated: SEPTEMBER 21, 2024 09:57
Civil Defense members work near the site of an Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, September 20, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Friday’s IDF strike on Beirut, which killed nearly a dozen members of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force senior commanders, including the unit’s chief, Ibrahim Aqil, sent a message that Israel has decided to “take the gloves off” in its engagements with Hezbollah, Israel Defense and Security Forum CEO Lt. Col. (res.) Yaron Buskila told Maariv in the immediate wake of the strike.
“The strike itself in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut is essentially a statement. It doesn’t matter who the target was. The fact that terrorists were struck in Beirut is a very significant message from Israel to Hezbollah,” Buskila said.
He continued, “Part of the decision is that there is no intention to continue playing this symmetric game that Israel has been playing with Hezbollah so far, and Israel understands that Hezbollah can respond significantly. For Israel, there is readiness for war, and the center of gravity is shifting to northern Israel. The IDF has decided that the Northern Command will become the main arena, while Gaza will become secondary. This is not just an empty statement; it’s a real, significant one, saying we are entering a campaign, even if it means entering a much tougher war.”
Buskila continued, saying, “I think if Hezbollah believed that with the pager and radio attacks, Israel would stop because it didn’t want escalation, the strike in the heart of Dahiyeh is a very clear message to the contrary.”
He went on to say, “Iran and Hezbollah can understand that Israel is determined to move forward, and it’s also a message to the Americans. The Americans don’t want Israel to go into a campaign against Lebanon right now.”
Rescuers gather next to a destroyed building, after an Israeli strike where a top Hezbollah military commander was targeted, Lebanese authorities said, in Beirut, Lebanon, September 20, 2024. (credit: Reuters TV/AL MANAR TV via REUTERS)
“They are focused on maintaining regional stability. However, we are unwilling to accept what has been. What was will not continue to be. Israel is not just saying this in words, but also in actions. We want to return our residents to their homes safely, without the threat of Hezbollah sitting right on the border.”
“Israel will utilize everything at its disposal to strike Hezbollah and restore peace”
In conclusion, he said: ” Negotiations have failed so far, and Hezbollah hasn’t withdrawn or reached any agreements. As a result, we are prepared to use all available force. Even without relying on American munitions—since their supply has diminished, as Kamala Harris clearly stated—Israel will utilize everything at its disposal to strike Hezbollah and restore peace to the northern border.”
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/ANALYIS
Arab states watch Hezbollah deterrence weakened, Israeli deterrence restored – analysis
After losing it after October 7, now, Israel is returning to the impression that the region has had of the country for the past decades.
The region is watching Israel’s recent actions against Hezbollah. October 7 was a major setback for Israel in the region in terms of the impression that Israel was powerful and impregnable. The reputation of Israel’s intelligence services and army suffered on October 7 as IDF units were overrun and Israelis were kidnapped to Gaza in large numbers.
Now, Israel is returning to the impression that the region has had of the country for the past decades.
The infiltration of Hezbollah, the exploding pagers, and the elimination of Hezbollah commanders are all seen as signs of Israel’s impressive capabilities.
This is important in a region where strength is respected. Israel needs to appear strong, or countries will not respect it. Countries may otherwise think Israel is weak and consider working with Israel’s enemies or hedging their bets.
This matters. Iran is on the move in the region, seeking closer ties with Saudi Arabia and Egypt. China has pushed for Iran-Saudi ties to grow. Russia is working with Iran. NATO member Turkey is backing Hamas. US major non-NATO ally Qatar hosts Hamas.
People and members of the military inspect the site of an Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, September 20, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Hezbollah is suffering setbacks
Now, Hezbollah is suffering setbacks. Many countries likely quietly applaud Israel’s actions. Saudi Arabia, for instance, played the key role in the Taif agreement that ended the Lebanese civil war.
Saudi Arabia has a crucial role in Lebanon and cares about groups that oppose Hezbollah. Syrian rebel groups also loathe Hezbollah for its role in supporting the Assad regime in Syria.
Countries and groups that oppose Iran also oppose Hezbollah. As such, they likely look with some pleasure on Israel’s actions during the week of September 15-September 20. This week may have been a game changer after a lot of slow progress Israel was making.
Now, Al-Ain media in the UAE is openly asking critical questions about what this week’s accomplishments mean.
The report mentions several possible options for what Israel’s strategy is now.
It could be “an attempt by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to pressure Nasrallah to stop Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel and to sever southern Lebanon’s connection to the front that has been raging in Gaza since last October.”
Indeed, Hezbollah has allowed Hamas to run the war in Gaza and dictate the tempo of the war in the region. Iran prodded Hezbollah to help take the pressure off Hamas and create a multi-front war. Hezbollah has vowed to keep up attacks as long as the war in Gaza continues. Gaza is thus the tail “wagging the dog.” Hezbollah, here, is the proverbial dog.
Al-Ain media also suggests that Israel is seeking to “provoke Nasrallah to push him to start the war, which would give [Israel] the legitimacy to ignite the northern front without political repercussions on the deeply divided domestic arena.”
If Hezbollah doesn’t respond with a major war, then “the image of deterrence that has been stable since 2006 will have been severely damaged, at the very least.”
This is a key point. While the 2006 war is seen in Israel as bringing quiet, it is seen by Hezbollah as deterring Israel.
For instance, Hezbollah built up an equation after 2006 where Israel was basically told not to carry out strikes in Lebanon, no matter the threat.
There were exceptions, and when they happened, Hezbollah would then claim it had a right to attack. This happened when there was a drone incident in Beirut in 2019.
Hezbollah retaliated, but it ended up hitting a vehicle with dummies in it. There were also incidents in 2015 and also Israel’s Operation Northern Shield, and throughout it all, Hezbollah built up capabilities and expanded into the Syrian side of the Golan during the Syrian civil war.
It also threatened Israel with drones. It then pressured Israel into the maritime deal in 2022 and set up a tent in a disputed area of Mount Dov or what Hezbollah calls the Sheba’a Farms.
Hezbollah increased its provocations between 2018 and 2023. This was all part of Hezbollah believing Israel was deterred. It thought it had the upper hand, and Israel was afraid of war.
When the regional media, such as Al-Ain, speak about Hezbollah losing its allure and losing its ability to deter Israel, this is important.
Hezbollah has suffered a lot in terms of losing its image in the region.
It acquired an image of power and almost invincibility. That has been shattered.
Israel suffered a defeat and setback in the regional perception of Israel’s capabilities on October 7. Now, Hezbollah has suffered a significant setback.
The reports that it lost more than two dozen fighters on September 17-18 and then lost another twenty on September 20 in the heart of the Dahiyeh in Beirut is a major setback for Hezbollah.
Now, it must decide how to react. Its regional image is also on the line, which matters to Iran and Hezbollah.
END
ISRAEL/ HEZBOLLAH
IDF confirms eliminating multiple top Hezbollah commanders in Friday’s Beirut strike
Radwan Force leadership taken out; Hezbollah acknowledges 2 top leaders, 14 others died in attack that killed head of operations Ibrahim Aqil; Lebanon says overall death toll at 31
An IDF infographic shows senior commanders in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force killed in a September 20, 2024 strike in Beirut. (Israel Defense Forces)
Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in an undated photo released by the terror group on September 21, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
An IDF infographic published September 21, 2024 shows Hezbollah’s chain of command. (Israel Defense Forces)
A poster announcing the death of the Hezbollah official Ahmed Wahbi, September 21, 2024.
Rescuers sift through the rubble at the scene of an Israeli strike that targeted Hezbollah terror group commanders meeting in Beirut’s southern suburbs a day earlier, as search and rescue operations continue on September 21, 2024. (AFP)
People gather near a damaged building at the scene of an Israeli missile strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Friday, Sept. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Illustrative: Israelis run to take cover as a siren sounds a warning of incoming rockets fired from Lebanon, in Nahariya, northern Israel, Sept. 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)
The Israel Defense Forces confirmed Saturday that it had eliminated many of the top commanders of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force in the Friday strike in Beirut that killed Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah’s military operations.
Hezbollah acknowledged that the airstrike had killed two of its most senior commanders and 14 other members of the terror group who were meeting in the basement of a Beirut residential building. The devastating strike was a further blow to the Iranian proxy and brought the sides closer to a full-scale war.
The military named 11 top Radwan officials killed in the strike. The Radwan Force has spearheaded Hezbollah’s ground operations in south Lebanon.
Aqil was the head of Hezbollah’s military operations, the acting commander of the Radwan Force, and the head of a long-gestating plan to invade the Galilee. Aqil had been meeting with the senior commanders of the Radwan Force under a residential building in Beirut when the IDF carried out its strike.
Ahmed Wahbi, identified by Hezbollah and the IDF as the head of the terror group’s training unit and a former commander of the Radwan Force, was also among the dead in the strike.
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The IDF said Wahbi was among those involved in the planning of a Hezbollah invasion of the Galilee, and was also part of “advancing Hezbollah’s entrenchment in southern Lebanon, while attempting to improve the organization’s ground combat capabilities.”
Over the years and during the first months of the war, the military said Wahbi was involved in planning and carrying out rocket fire and infiltration attacks. Signifying his stature in Hezbollah, Wahbi, was identified by the terror group as a “commander.” Hezbollah rarely refers to its senior operatives slain in Israeli strikes as commanders.
A poster announcing the death of the Hezbollah official Ahmed Wahbi, September 21, 2024.
Other top Radwan Force commanders killed in the strike are identified by the IDF as: Hassan Hussein, commander of special forces in the Aziz regional division; Samer Halawi, commander of the coastal region; Abbas Muslimani, commander of the Qana region; Abdullah Hijazi, commander of the Ramim Ridge region; Muhammad Reda, commander of the Khiam region; Hassan Madi, commander of the Mount Dov region; Hassan Abd al-Satar, head of operations; Hussein Hadraj, chief of staff; Mohammad al-Attar, commander of the training department; and Mahmoud Hamad, a senior operations officer.
“These commanders had been leading and planning the Radwan Force’s attack and infiltration plan into Israeli territory for years, to be executed when given the order,” the military said. “Aqil and the commanders eliminated in the strike were responsible for planning, advancing, and executing hundreds of terrorist operations against Israel, including the planning of Hezbollah’s murderous scheme to raid the communities of the Galilee.”
Hezbollah military commander Ibrahim Aqil (left) with senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine in an undated photo released by the terror group on September 21, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
Lebanese Health Minister Firass Abiad said the overall toll from the strike had risen to 31, including three children and several women. Abiad said emergency services worked “through the night” to recover dead and wounded from the debris, adding that the “residential building collapsed on top of occupants” after the Israeli attack.
Abiad told reporters 68 people were also wounded, of whom 15 remained in hospital, adding that search and rescue operations were still ongoing, with the number of casualties likely to rise. Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamie told reporters at the scene that 23 people are still missing.
An IDF infographic published September 21, 2024 shows Hezbollah’s chain of command. (Israel Defense Forces)
Aqil’s body was recovered overnight and Hezbollah announced his death, saying “one of its great leaders” was killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” the phrase it uses to refer to fighters killed by Israel.
Lebanese troops cordoned off the area preventing people from reaching the building that was knocked down as members of the Lebanese Red Cross stood nearby to take any recovered body from under the rubble. On Saturday morning, Hezbollah’s media office took journalists on a tour of the scene of the airstrike where workers were still digging through the rubble.
Hezbollah in disarray
The deadly strike appeared to push Hezbollah into further disarray after the terror group suffered a pair of unprecedented attacks earlier this week in which thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by its members exploded, killing 37 people and wounding thousands. That attack was widely believed to have also been carried out by Israel, which has neither confirmed nor denied its involvement.
Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah vowed on Thursday that Israel would face retribution for the blasts. The terror group did not immediately respond to Friday’s strike.
Following the strike, Hezbollah appointed senior officers Ali Karaki and Talal Hamia to jointly lead the terror group’s operations division following the killing of Aqil, the Saudi news outlet Al-Hadath reported.
People gather near a damaged building at the scene of an Israeli missile strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Friday, Sept. 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Both officers already sit on the Jihad Council, Hezbollah’s top military body.
Karaki is the head of Hezbollah’s southern command, responsible for the terror group’s military activity in south Lebanon, and Hamia is the head of Hezbollah’s Unit 910, the terror group’s foreign operations unit, responsible for attacks abroad.
The Jihad Council was believed to have had seven members, although now it was down to five following the killings of Aqil and Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah’s military chief, who was killed in July.
Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in an undated photo released by the terror group on September 21, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
Aqil had also been wanted by the United States for his role in the 1983 bombings of the American Embassy in Lebanon and the US Marines barracks in Beirut.
In a curt statement issued on Friday evening, soon after the start of Shabbat, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, “Our goals are clear, and our actions speak for themselves.”
Before and after the strike targeting Aqil, Hezbollah fired some 200 rockets Friday at the northern Galilee and the Golan Heights. No casualties were reported following the barrages, which happened as the IDF alerted residents in the area to remain close to bomb shelters.
Alongside Aqil, the top brass of Hezbollah’s operations array and the leadership of the Radwan Force were killed in the strike, according to the military.
“They gathered underground, under a residential building, in the heart of the Dahiyeh, while using civilians as a human shield. They met to coordinate terror activities against Israeli civilians,” IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said in a press conference.
Lebanese army soldiers and Red Cross rescuers gather at the barriered area of the scene of an Israeli strike that targeted Hezbollah commanders in southern Beirut a day earlier, as search and rescue operations continue on September 21, 2024. (AFP)
Lebanese media reported that the strike was carried out by an Israeli F-35 fighter jet using two missiles to target the apartment building in the Dahiyeh area of south Beirut, a known Hezbollah stronghold.
“Aqil and the Radwan Force commanders who we attacked are the commanders who drew up and led the Hezbollah terror group’s plan, to be carried out on the day the order was given, to attack into the northern territory of the State of Israel — what they called ‘The plan to conquer the Galilee,’” Hagari said at his press conference on Friday evening.
In this planned invasion, “Hezbollah intended to raid Israeli territory, occupy the communities of the Galilee, and murder and kidnap Israeli citizens — similar to what Hamas did on October 7,” Hagari continued.
“The commanders who we eliminated today” had been overseeing attacks on Israeli citizens since October 8, and planned to carry out more such attacks,” he added, calling Aqil “a terrorist with a great deal of blood on his hands, responsible for the deaths of many civilians and innocents.”
Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil in an undated photo released by the terror group on September 21, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
Aqil joined Hezbollah in the 1980s, and was also responsible for the terror group’s attacks outside of Lebanon, according to the IDF. The military said he participated in many attacks in other countries, including targeting civilians.
Since 2004, Aqil has been serving as the head of Hezbollah operations, responsible for the terror group’s bombing and anti-tank attacks on Israel, air defenses, and other aspects of the organization, the military said.
The IDF said Aqil was involved in an anti-tank guided missile attack against an army post near Avivim in 2019, a bombing attack at the Megiddo Junction last year, and several attempts by Hezbollah operatives to infiltrate into Israel amid the war.
Not shedding a tear
The US had accused Aqil of a role in the Beirut truck bombings at the American embassy in April 1983, which killed 63 people, and a US Marine barracks six months later that killed 241 people. He was also wanted for directing the taking of American and German hostages in Lebanon in the 1980s.
The US had placed a $7 million bounty on Aqil’s head.
A US State Department “Wanted Poster” for Hezbollah Radwan Force commander Ibrahim Aqil. (US State Department)
White House Mideast czar Brett McGurk said the Biden administration was not shedding a tear over Aqil, but indicated that the US might not agree with the move given the risk it brings for regional escalation.
“Ibrahim Aqil, who was killed today, was responsible for the Beirut Embassy bombing 40 years ago. So nobody sheds a tear for him,” McGurk said while addressing the Israeli-American Council’s conference in Washington.
“That said, we have disagreements with the Israelis on tactics and how you kind of measure escalation risk. It is a very concerning situation. I’m very confident that through diplomacy, through deterrence and other means, we’ll work our way out of it,” he added.
Friday’s strike was just the third time Israel has targeted Beirut since the IDF began responding to cross-border fire from Hezbollah that began a day after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught.
In July, an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed Hezbollah’s military chief Shukr, and before that in January, Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri was killed in an IAF strike in the Lebanese capital.
Hezbollah has pledged to continue its fire until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Most of the strikes by both sides have been contained to the border area, but have forced tens of thousands of Israelis and Lebanese to evacuate their homes.
While Israel has repeated for months that it would prefer a diplomatic solution that would allow its residents to return to their homes, it has said it would use military force if necessary.
The US has sought to broker a deal, which among other things would see Hezbollah retreat 10 kilometers away from the border, in line with UN Security Resolution 1701, which the terror group has long violated. However, it has acknowledged that the surest way to strike such an agreement will be by first reaching a ceasefire in Gaza, which has also remained elusive.
Still, US special envoy Amos Hochstein told Israeli leaders during a visit earlier this week that launching a war against Hezbollah isn’t any more likely to secure Israel the conditions it is seeking to return its 60,000 evacuated residents to their homes and argued that the sides will ultimately be pushed to agree to the same deal currently on the table after both suffering major losses.
Israel announced earlier this week that it was amending its war objectives — formulated after Hamas invaded southern Israel from Gaza on October 7, slaughtered some 1,200 people and abducted 251 hostages — to add the additional imperative to return displaced northern residents safely to their homes.
Smoke rises from a large fire after missiles launched from Lebanon hit the Biriya Forest in Northern Israel, on September 20, 2024. (David Cohen/Flash90)
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
So far, the skirmishes have resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 22 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 483 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 79 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.
Meanwhile, Kata’ib Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy operating in Iraq and Syria that is not directly affiliated with its Lebanese namesake, announced the death of a member in an alleged Israeli airstrike near Damascus on Friday morning.
The terror group said in a statement that Abu Haidar al-Khafaji served as a security advisor in the Damascus area.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON//SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IDF announces new wave of strikes in Lebanon to thwart major Hezbollah rocket attacks
IDF Says 180 Targets Eliminated In Southern Lebanon; US Lauds ‘Good Outcome’ Of Beirut Strike
SATURDAY, SEP 21, 2024 – 12:15 PM
Since Thursday and the deadly chaos of the two-day pager explosion attack, southern Lebanon has seen the most intense exchange of fire between Hezbollah and Israel since the conflict began after Oct.7.
On Saturday the expanded pace of fire has continued, with Hezbollah having launched at least 90 rockets on northern Israel, and the IDF saying it has mounted at least 80 raids on weapons installations belonging to Hezbollah.
The Israeli army described that it “dismantled approximately 180 targets and thousands of launcher barrels” in southern Lebanon over several hours of Saturday.
But it also confirmed that “approximately 90 projectile launches were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory.” The IDF added: “The [Israeli military] will continue operating to dismantle and degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and terror infrastructure.”
There are currently many warnings from both sides of the border that this marks a slide into all-out war, which both have avoided thus far, with the past year witnessing ‘limited’ and often short-lived attacks and rocket volleys.
The death toll from Friday’s Israeli airstrike which killed Hezbollah special forces commander Ibrahim Aqil has risen to 37, after a day-long rescue operation and workers picking through rubble of a residential building, according to the country’s Health Ministry. Reports say that a meeting of Hezbollah leaders was taking place in either a garage, or a tunnel underneath the building in south Beirut.
“According to source, the meeting was being held in a tunnel under a residential building, a location that was being used for the first time, which has raised Hezbollah’s concerns about the extent Israel has infiltrated its ranks,” Middle East Eye reports. Hezbollah has since confirmed that 16 of its members were killed in the attack.
Lebanon’s government says three children and seven women were among the victims. Over 60 others were injured. The White House has still called the Israeli strike“a good outcome”.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan described Aqil as having “American blood on his hands and has a rewards for justice price on his head.”
He has long been sought by the US for his alleged role in the 1983 bombing of the US Embassy in Beirut, and well as kidnapping of Westerners in the the later 1980s. He had a $7 million bounty on his head issued by the Justice Department.
“He is somebody who the United States promised long ago we would do everything we could to see brought to justice,” Sullivan said. “You know, 1983 seems like a long time ago,” he added. “But for a lot of families and a lot of people, they’re still living with it every day.”
Some Middle East pundits and commentators expressed“shock” at the celebratory statements by the Biden administration, given the Israeli operation resulted in a high civilian death toll.
🚨🚨🚨 BREAKING :
Israeli drones are flying over the skies of Beirut.
Israel has claimed that Hezbollah was using those in the residential building above as ‘human shields’.
ISRALE/HEZBOLLAH/TIMES OF ISRAEL/LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
New wave of strikes in Lebanon as Israel braces for potential major Hezbollah attack
Home Front Command issues new guidelines for residents of Haifa and northward; IDF says it struck more than 400 rocket launchers Saturday, as Hezbollah fires nearly 100 at Israel
Smoke billows at the site of an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Zawtar on September 21, 2024. (Ammar Ammar / AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces carried out a wave of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon Saturday night, with the army saying it had identified preparations by the terror group to launch major rocket attacks against Israel.
The latest Israel strikes came after fighter jets struck some 180 targets in southern Lebanon on Saturday afternoon, taking out thousands of rocket launcher barrels that were primed for imminent attacks on Israel, according to the IDF.
At the same time, officials issued new restrictions on residents of the Haifa area and northward as the country braced for the possibility of a large-scale assault by the Lebanese terror group in the coming hours, after it suffered heavy blows in multiple attacks in recent days.
Over the course of the day, the IDF struck more than 400 Hezbollah rocket launchers, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Saturday evening in a press conference.
Amid the fighting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was set to hold security consultations with ministers and top defense officials on Saturday night.
According to the new instructions for northern residents issued by the Home Front Command, work and educational activity will only be able to take place where an adequate shelter is nearby and can be reached in time.
Significant Shockwaves produced by the ongoing Israeli Strikes against Southern Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/pO3L9Znw4T
In addition, gatherings are limited to up to 30 people outdoors and 300 people indoors.
Hagari said there may be additional changes to the guidelines depending on developments, and warned that rockets could be launched at Israel in the coming hours.
“If there are any further changes, overnight or tomorrow, we will update immediately. It is possible that in the immediate time frame, rockets and other threats may be launched at Israel. We ask of you to follow the Home Front Command guidelines,” he said.
Some 100 rockets were launched from Lebanon at northern Israel on Saturday, according to the IDF. Hezbollah claimed responsibility for the attacks.
Firefighting planes try to extinguish a large fire after rockets launched by the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon hit the Biriya Forest in Northern Israel, on September 21, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
No injuries were reported as a result of any of the rockets, but police said they received reports of rocket impacts that caused damage and sparked fires.
The first barrage at around 2 p.m., toward Safed and Kiryat Shmona, included some 25 rockets. Over the following hour, a barrage of 10 rockets was fired at the Arab al-Aramshe area, and another 25 were launched toward the Golan Heights.
Shortly after 3 p.m., a barrage of 10 rockets was fired at the Upper Galilee, and at 3:19 p.m., another 20 rockets were launched at the same area, according to the military.
Video posted to social media appeared to show several missile interceptions.
Israeli Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar said the IAF was on the highest level of alert.
“We are continuing to maintain the highest possible level of readiness in the Air Force,” Bar said during a meeting with IAF commanders. “We’ve placed all the Air Force’s capabilities… on the table. Everything is ready. Now, in accordance with the developments, we are enacting the plans that are most suitable,” he added.
Meanwhile, the head of the IDF’s Northern Command, Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin, held an assessment with senior officers in northern Israel, which the military said was “part of the broadening of the fighting” against Hezbollah.
The military said Gordin met with the commanders of the 300th “Baram” and 769th “Hiram” regional brigades, and the commanders of other brigades and units deployed to northern Israel.
“In recent days, the commanders of the divisions and brigades under the Northern Command carried out situation assessments and additional tours in the region, as part of preparations for the widening of the fighting in the area,” the IDF added.
IDF Northern Command chief Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin meets with officers in northern Israel, September 21, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The fighting on Saturday came after Israel on Friday assassinated top Hezbollah commanders Ibrahim Aqil and Ahmed Wahbi, along with other top members of the group, in an airstrike on a residential building in Beirut, where the terror group leaders had gathered for a meeting in an underground room.
Aqil was head of Hezbollah’s military operations, acting commander of its elite Radwan Force, and head of a long-gestating plan to invade the Galilee, while Wahbi, a former commander of the Radwan Force, was head of the terror group’s training unit.
The devastating strike was a further blow to the Iranian proxy and brought the sides closer to a full-scale war, after 11 months in which Hezbollah has engaged in near-daily attacks on northern Israel.
It also came days after thousands of Hezbollah members’ personal electronics — first pagers, then later walkie-talkies — exploded, killing dozens and wounding thousands, in an attack for which Israel was widely blamed.
An IDF infographic shows senior commanders in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force killed in a September 20, 2024 strike in Beirut. (Israel Defense Forces)
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
So far, the skirmishes have resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side, as well as the deaths of 22 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 501 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. Another 79 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/SATURDAY
WATCH: IDF thwarts attempt by Gaza terrorists to loot aid truck
IDF troops identified a vehicle that pulled to the front of a line of aid trucks and an armed individual exiting the vehicle.
The Tzabar Battalion of the IDF’s Givati Brigade thwarted an attempt by terrorists in the Gaza Strip to loot an aid truck carrying humanitarian relief for Gaza’s civilian population, the IDF reported on Friday.
After securing the humanitarian corridor in Rafah, IDF scans reportedly identified Hamas terrorists stealing the contents of a humanitarian aid truck. Ground forces subsequently directed drones to strike the vehicles carrying the looters.
IDF troops identified a vehicle that pulled to the front of a line of aid trucks and an armed individual exiting the car next to a gathering of people in front of the trucks.
IDF transcripts reveal precision in avoiding civilian harm
A video and audio recording from IDF surveillance revealed the military’s identification of assailants, including their weapons and other movements.
“The guy who is currently standing outside the window of the car that is vertical to the road is armed with an AK-47,” one IDF soldier can be heard saying in Hebrew. “We saw one armed militant getting back inside the car and one armed militant getting out of the window… Two armed men in the car are turning right from the humanitarian road.”
According to the recording, authorization to strike the terrorists attempting to flee the scene was given on the condition that the strike would not hit the truck.
Not an isolated incident
Hamas and other terror groups in Gaza have exhibited a history of stealing humanitarian aid meant for civilians, long before the fallout of the October 7 attacks. In July, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric spoke of the challenges of receiving and distributing aid through the Kerem Shalom crossing, and said some aid is getting through but very little.
According to Dujarric, aid is being dropped off from the Israeli side and left in an area where the UN and some private sector entities are also picking it up.
Dujarric also said the UN trucks that are picking up aid are doing it often at a significant cost because they are being either looted or attacked by criminal elements.
“The aid is being dropped off. But on the other side of that, you have other lawlessness and continuing conflict,” he said. ‘ So it’s not as if we’re operating in a beautifully safe environment. We’re operating in a highly challenging environment and continue to do our best to aid those who need it.”
Dujarric said that United Nations Humanitarian Coordinator Muhannad Hadi, who just returned from his third trip through the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, briefed UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Wednesday.
“Mr. Hadi told us that he saw firsthand the consequences of the breakdown in public order and safety as he entered and exited Gaza through the Kerem Shalom crossing,” Dujarric said. “He saw groups of men with sticks waiting for trucks to leave the Kerem Shalom crossing into Gaza. All the trucks he passed were badly damaged with broken windshields, mirrors and hoods.”
Hannah Sarisohn contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF says it struck Hamas operatives at inactive Gaza school; 21 reported killed
Hamas authorities say 13 children among fatalities at al-Falah school; senior Hamas intelligence officer and armed looters of aid killed in separate strikes
Palestinians inspect damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a school housing displaced Palestinians and allegedly Hamas operatives in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood on September 21, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces carried out an airstrike on Saturday against a group of Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within a former school in Gaza, the military said, in an attack that reportedly killed more than 20 people.
Hamas was using the al-Falah School in the Zeitoun neighborhood to plan and carry out attacks against IDF troops and against Israel, the military said.
The school, inactive amid the war, had also been serving as a shelter for displaced Gazans.
According to the Gaza civil defense agency and health ministry — both run by Hamas — 21 people were killed in the strike.
“Civil Defense crews recovered 21 people, including 13 children and six women,” one of whom was pregnant, agency spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP.
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There were “around 30 injured, including nine children [needing] limb amputations, as a result of an Israeli bombing on al-Zeitoun School C” in Gaza City, he said.
A woman mourns as she holds the shrouded body of her child who was killed during an Israeli strike on a school housing displaced Palestinians and allegedly Hamas operatives in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood on September 21, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)
To mitigate harm to civilians in the strike, the IDF said it carried out “many steps,” including using precision munitions, aerial surveillance, and other intelligence.
“The Hamas terror organization systematically violates international law, brutally exploiting civilian institutions and the population as a human shield for terror activity,” the military added.
It said the target was “embedded inside” the al-Falah School, adjacent to the Al-Zeitoun School buildings. An AFP reporter at the scene confirmed that Al-Zeitoun School C had been hit.
Witnesses told AFP that before the strike, orphans had gathered there because they were due to receive sponsorship from a local NGO for humanitarian assistance.
The IDF has repeatedly hit Hamas operatives at schools, civilian shelters and hospitals, frequently drawing international condemnation. The military says it is doing so because terror operatives regularly hide behind civilians, and argues that it takes pains to avoid harm to innocents.
Palestinians inspect damage at the site of an Israeli strike on a school housing displaced Palestinians and allegedly Hamas operatives in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood on September 21, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)
Earlier Saturday, the military said the Israeli Air Force carried out some 20 airstrikes during the previous day. The strikes targeted buildings used by the Hamas and its operatives, the IDF said.
In another recent airstrike, the IDF said Saturday that it had killed Muhammad Mansour, a prominent Hamas intelligence officer who the military described as a “significant source of technological knowledge in Hamas’s military intelligence.”
Separately, the military released footage Saturday showing drone strikes in the Rafah area of the southern Gaza Strip against gunmen who had attempted to loot a humanitarian aid convoy.
The footage showed the gunmen climbing onto the trucks carrying humanitarian aid as they drove on a designated route.
The IDF said the gunmen were spotted by troops, who directed a drone strike against them as they tried to flee in a car. Another gunman was killed while trying to flee the scene.
The IDF has said Hamas operatives frequently try to hijack aid deliveries before they can be distributed to civilians.
According to the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, a separate incident on Saturday saw an Israeli airstrike hit a warehouse in a “densely populated” area of southern Gaza, killing “three ministry of health personnel and a passer-by” and injuring six others.
“The warehouse was directly targeted with several missiles while doctors and staff were performing their duties, preparing to transport the medicines stored there to hospitals under the ministry of health that are facing severe shortages of medicines and supplies,” a statement said.
The war has badly battered Gaza’s health sector, and the World Health Organization said earlier this month that only 17 of its 36 hospitals were partially functional.
War broke out on October 7 when Hamas terrorists infiltrated Israel, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapping 251. It is believed that 97 of the hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 33 confirmed dead by the IDF.
The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 40,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 17,000 combatants in battle and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools and mosques.
This combination of six undated photos shows hostages, from top left, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Ori Danino, Eden Yerushalmi; from bottom left, Almog Sarusi, Alexander Lobanov, and Carmel Gat. (The Hostages Families Forum via AP)
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the two terrorists who likely murdered hostages Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Ori Danino, Alex Lobanov, Carmel Gat, and Almog Sarusi in a tunnel in the southern Gaza Strip were killed by Israeli forces.
“A day after the murder of the hostages, forces with the 162nd Division identified two terrorists emerging from a nearby tunnel in the Tel Sultan area, and killed them in an exchange of fire,” Hagari says in a press conference.
“After we investigated the findings from the tunnel and equipment from the terrorists, we found DNA and several items that belonged to the terrorists that we killed,” he says.
Hagari says that the findings reveal that the two terrorists were inside the tunnel where the six hostages were murdered, during the murder.
“We are checking their involvement in the murder,” he adds.
Two unnamed Hamas terrorists who are believed to have murdered six Israeli hostages in the Gaza Strip, are seen in a handout image released by the IDF on September 21, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
END
ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH/HAMAS SUNDAY
IDF retaliates after Hezbollah’s deepest attack yet: Over 150 rockets, six wounded
Across four separate barrages throughout the early hours of Sunday morning, the IDF detected over 150 rockets and drones.
Hezbollah fired its deepest barrage into Israel since the beginning of the current war, with four rounds of over 150 rockets, cruise missiles, and drones fired into the Jezreel Valley in the early hours of Sunday morning, the IDF confirmed.
Alerts were sounded in and around Haifa, the Ramat David air base, Nazareth, Afula, the lower Galilee, and the Jezreel Valley.
Following the barrage, the IDF stated that they were conducting strikes against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
As a result of the fire on northern Israel, six people were wounded, and they were evacuated to the Emek Medical Center in Afula, the Medical Center announced. Magen David Adom (MDA) teams were called to treat four individuals with shrapnel injuries, including a 76-year-old man in moderate condition, as well as a 70-year-old man, a 60-year-old man, and a 16-year-old girl in moderate condition.
Two houses were hit in Kiryat Bialik following a fourth wave of rocket attacks from Lebanon, according to Israeli media.
Initial reports also stated that one person had been killed and that most of the casualties were from a car accident resulting from panic from the rocket fire.
Damage in Israel’s North following multiple Hezbollah rocket barrages on September 22, 2024 (credit: MDA SPOKESPERSON)
Army Radio and Israeli state broadcaster KAN reported that Hezbollah specifically targeted the Ramat David base near Haifa for the first time in the war. Hezbollah confirmed this, stating it had targeted the Ramat David base and airport in response to Israel Air Force (IAF) strikes in Beirut, which killed some of its top commanders.
The impact of the Lebanese terror group’s counterattack so far, while much farther and potentially deadlier than its general attacks limited to the Upper Galilee and Golan, has been significantly less than expected by the IDF and the general public, given its pre-war arsenal of 150,000 rockets.
Hezbollah’s terrorism targets civilians.
Hundreds of thousands of Israeli civilians spent their night hiding in bomb shelters, while barrages of rockets were flying over their heads, some hitting their homes, and rocket alert sirens were constantly sounding throughout the night.… pic.twitter.com/2XzgAQQ7Fp
Its attempts to perpetrate graver damage and larger casualties deeper into Israel come following a whirlwind week in which the IDF destroyed over 400 rocket launchers, many thousands of rockets, killed Hezbollah’s special forces Radwan chief and around 16 of his deputies, and has been accused of wounding around 3,000-4,000 Hezbollah operatives using explosive device sabotage.
The IDF said that it would continue massive strikes on Hezbollah’s capabilities, mostly focused on southern Lebanon in response.
Israel’s goal remains to deter Hezbollah into a ceasefire and to achieve some kind of removal of Radwan forces from southern Lebanon, while the Lebanese organization’s goal remains to maintain rocket fire on the Jewish state until a deal is reached with Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar.
Hezbollah specifically targeted the Ramat David base near Haifa for the first time in the war.
‼️ Hezbollah barrage sees direct hit in Nazareth as nearly 70 cities under fire Hezbollah terrorist rockets. pic.twitter.com/iDdsh2i0bP
Hezbollah’s response to pager attack attributed to Israel
Hezbollah rockets struck Moshav Sde Ya’akov, and a fire broke out from another rocket in Kfar Baruch. The Emek Jezreel Regional Council said that one hit caused minor property damage in the area.
One rocket struck Nazareth, and a large fire broke out elsewhere in the city. MDA reported that a 60-year-old man was slightly wounded by shrapnel in the Lower Galilee.
A barn was struck in Beit She’arim, in the lower Galilee, resulting in the deaths of several cows in the third barrage, KAN and Army Radio reported. At least one other rocket also struck another unidentified area, the IDF confirmed.
Israel Police urged the public to stay away from rocket shrapnel or fragments, as they may contain explosive material.
According to KAN, residents of Kiryat Tivon said they were unable to access public shelters because they were locked.
Al Hadath, a Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese outlet, reported that Hezbollah fired 100 rockets towards Haifa and the Upper Galilee, however the IDF claimed it was fewer. Sometimes Hezbollah will fire rockets, but many of them do not cross the border, which could account for some of the discrepancy.
At around 2 a.m., Hezbollah reported Israeli air force jets over southern Lebanon.
The UN’s Special Coordinator for Lebanon, Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert, issued a statement on the development, saying, “It cannot be overstated enough, there is no military solution that will make either side safer.”
New Home Front Command guidelines
The Home Front Command issued new defensive guidelines on Saturday and again on Sunday that limited gatherings to 30 people outdoors and 300 indoors from Haifa and northward, and then closed all educational settings in those areas.
There were no changes southward of Haifa, but the Home Front Command said this could change at any time based on upcoming Hezbollah attacks.
According to Israeli media, these are the first alarms to be activated in Afula in more than nine months.The IDF spokesman said that the incident is being investigated.
The targeting of Ramat David follows Hezbollah’s publishing of drone footage of the IDF Ramat David base in July. The Ramat David base is about 46 km (28.6 mi) from Israel’s border with Lebanon.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/SUNDAY
Haifa Burning After Hezbollah Strikes Deepest Israeli Targets Since 2006
SUNDAY, SEP 22, 2024 – 11:05 AM
In the overnight and early Sunday morning hours Hezbollah has apparently retaliated against Israel for this week’s series of Beirut attacks which have left scores of Hezbollah operatives (long with many civilians) dead and injured.
Hezbollah has launched an attack on targets deep inside Israel in what is likely the longest range strike since the conflict began. Israel’s Haifa has been devastated waves of rockets, and significant damage on the ground has been revealed Sunday, including on Israeli residential neighborhoods.
The distance from Haifa to the Lebanese border is about 30km, or some 18 miles. Thus far through the conflict which began after Oct.7 last year, Hezbollah’s rockets have been concentrated to within a few miles deep inside Israel.
The early Sunday morning hours witnessed Hezbollah launch approximately 150 rockets into northern Israel. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that most were intercepted.
But videos from Haifa confirm that some rockets made it through anti-air defenses, causing devastation on the ground:
🔥 This is wild! For the 4th time today Hezbollah rained Haifa and the surrounding area with medium range missiles striking multiple targets. And this is still not a response to the Israeli terrorist attacks. This is welcoming Haifa into the new rules of engagement. pic.twitter.com/XB8dNAKEiP
Hezbollah issued an official statement as follows: “In an initial response to the brutal massacre committed by the Israeli enemy in various Lebanese regions on Tuesday and Wednesday (the Pager and wireless devices massacre).”
“We bombed the military industries complexes of the Rafael Company, which specializes in electronic means and equipment, located in the Zevulun area north of Haifa, with dozens of Fadi 1, Fadi 2, and Katyusha missiles, at 6:30 am on this Sunday morning, September 22, 2024,” Hezbollah continued.
Another location, the Ramat David Military Airport, which lies south east of Haifa, was also hit. The base, which is one of the country’s largest, houses Israeli Air Force fighter jets. This retaliation marks significant escalation in terms of the Shia paramilitary group’s targeting and range.
The attacks sowed chaos in Haifa and surrounding towns, resulting in at least one death:
Some 85 rockets were launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon at the Haifa area in northern Israel on Sunday morning, following overnight launches at the Jezreel Valley, the terror group’s deepest rocket fire into Israel since the beginning of the war in October.
A teenager was killed when he crashed his vehicle as sirens sounded in the early hours of the morning, and at least three people were injured as a result of the rocket fire.
A settler from Kiryat Bialik, north of occupied Haifa, told Zionist newspaper Maariv:
"We have never seen anything like this before, not even in 2006. We all assumed that there would be a response from Hezbollah, but we did not think it would be this strong, especially when… pic.twitter.com/NYK6gEwn7L
There are reports suggesting coordination with Iran-linked Iraqi paramilitaries as well:
According to the Associated Press, one rocket caused damage near a residential building in Kiryat Bialik, a city near Haifa. Emergency medical services announced that one man was “lightly wounded by shrapnel from a missile,” according to Reuters. The Times of Israel reported two further injuries.
Around the same time, Israeli air defenses intercepted “two cruise missiles and two drones fired from Iraq, none of which hit Israeli territory,” the military claimed via the Times of Israel.
Israeli authorities have ordered the closure of all schools and banned public gatherings across the north, where at least 80,000 citizens have remained in a permanent state of evacuation going back to last October.
More destruction. Hezbollah announced that a target in the attacks was an initial response to the pager massacres in Lebanon. They bombed the military industries complexes of the Rafael company, which specializes in electronic means and equipment. Meaning more responses to come pic.twitter.com/bMWd0WtQ2J
Among the harrowing videos to appear online is one showing a direct Hezbollah missile strike on a home in Haifa. An elderly lady says it’s a miracle she escaped the attack unharmed:
A Haifa woman whose home sustained a direct hit in a Hezbollah rocket attack early this morning says she “hates to think what might have happened” if she wasn’t able to take cover in her safe room during the impact.
“It’s a miracle,” Zehava Sofer tells Channel 12. Sofer says she could hear loud explosions from inside the safe room in her home in Kiryat Bialik, a suburb of the northern coastal city, and that she stayed put until rescue workers arrived to extract her.
“Everything in the two upstairs rooms was burned,” she said. “The rest of the house I’m not sure, I haven’t checked yet.”
Below: direct missile strike on Israeli residential building in port city of Haifa:
She expressed frustration that the fighting on the border has persisted for nearly a year: “We can’t live like this anymore. It’s enough. It’s just lucky I didn’t have small children at home,” she told Israeli media.
The IDF says it has ramped up offensive operations against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon in order to restore safety to northern Israel, but looks like there will be a long war ahead.
END
ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH/SUNDAY OP ED
String of IDF successes might cause Nasrallah to back down, but won’t lead to victory
Israel is hoping stunning tactical achievements will head off war against Hezbollah, but defeating the organization requires a different approach
Hezbollah members carry the coffins of two of their comrades who were killed on Wednesday when a handheld device exploded, during a funeral procession in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Thursday, Sept. 19, 2024. Israel has been blamed for the attacks. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Israel’s security services are on a hot streak as they hammer Hezbollah in Lebanon.
On Friday, an airstrike eliminated the senior leadership of the elite Radwan force, the unit that the terror group has been building up for years to invade the Galilee and carry out an attack that would make the horrors of October 7 pale in comparison.
And over the last few days, the IAF struck hundreds of Hezbollah rocket launchers in southern Lebanon that were primed for immediate attacks on Israel.
Those blows came in the aftermath of stunning operations in which Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies exploded, killing 37 and leaving thousands of fighters maimed. Though Israel has not taken responsibility, Hezbollah blames its arch-enemy, and has no idea how much deeper the penetration of its secretive organization goes.
Those high-profile successes — along with the killing of Hezbollah’s military chief Fuad Shukr by Israel in July — overshadow another bold operation that seems to have gone off without a hitch. Israeli special forces reportedly carried out a raid deep inside Syria 10 days ago, destroying an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps facility for the development of ballistic missiles and drones for Hezbollah and other proxies.
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Though these highly public (and deeply humiliating for Hezbollah) operations are undoubtedly escalations in the 11-month-long fight across the Israel-Lebanon border, they seem designed to avoid an all-out war.
Hezbollah military commander Ibrahim Aqil (left) with senior Hezbollah official Hashem Safieddine in an undated photo released by the terror group on September 21, 2024. (Hezbollah media office)
For decades, Israel has relied on deterrence to guarantee relative quiet on its borders. This approach, which is expressly not designed to defeat or destroy an adversary, seeks to dissuade an enemy from crossing red lines by threatening to exact a cost that they deem too dear.
Repeated deterrence operations in Gaza and Lebanon since the 1990s resulted in boasts from Israeli leaders, limited periods of quiet, and enemies that grew steadily more dangerous.
The problem with deterrence is that it exists only in the mind of the enemy, and therefore there is no guarantee that one will be aware that their adversary’s cost-benefit calculations have changed. Israel learned its deterrence against Hamas was nonexistent only when thousands of terrorists streamed across the border on October 7, and discovered the limits of its deterrence against Hezbollah the next day, when the Lebanese terror group began to open fire on the north.
Palestinians on the Israeli side of the Gaza border fence during a Hamas-led invasion and slaughter in southern Israel, October 7, 2023. (Reuters/Mohammed Fayq Abu Mostafa)
Now Israel is trying to use what military theorists call compellence — forcing an adversary to stop actions they have already begun. It requires a deep understanding of the other side’s calculations, a “nuanced understanding of the needs, fears, capabilities, interests, and will of the target state,” in the words of US Army War College scholar Tami Davis Biddle.
“And the coercer must be able to articulate the demand in ways the target state can comprehend and comply with.”
The purpose of any damage done to an enemy is to signal that there will be much more on the way if it doesn’t change its behavior in a specific way.
“Unhappily, the power to hurt is often communicated by some performance of it,” wrote Thomas Schelling in “Arms and Influence.”
“Whether it is sheer terroristic violence to induce an irrational response, or cool premeditated violence to persuade somebody that you mean it and may do it again, it is not the pain and damage itself but its influence on somebody’s behavior that matters.”
Israel is hoping that eliminating Hezbollah’s senior command echelon, thinning its ranks by thousands of fighters in 48 hours, and degrading its missile array will finally convince the Shiite group that it will ultimately pay too high a price if it doesn’t stop firing at Israel.
Smoke billows at the site of an Israeli airstrike on the outskirts of the southern Lebanese village of Zawtar on September 21, 2024. (Ammar Ammar / AFP)
The danger is that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will make other calculations. He may decide that the strikes prove that Israel is about to attack and that war is coming. It may also push him into an aggressive response to save face and show his supporters and Iranian patron that his organization is capable of standing up to the hated Jewish state.
War in the north seems inevitable, but Israel will be far more likely to win it after several years of transformation and replenishment, when it can surprise Hezbollah with a full-scale invasion meant to defeat the organization once and for all
Israel can only take the decision out of Nasrallah’s hands by going to war against Hezbollah and dismantling it as a military force.
But Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has so far ruled against such a move. It is a reasonable decision, given the effects of 11 months of fighting in Gaza on the readiness of the army to take on a more dangerous enemy in Lebanon, and the fact that IDF reforms initiated in 2019 to enable it to defeat Hezbollah on the battlefield were not completed by October 6.
War in the north seems inevitable, but Israel will be far more likely to win it after several years of transformation and replenishment, when it can surprise Hezbollah with a full-scale invasion meant to defeat the organization once and for all.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant attend a vote on the state budget at the Knesset plenum in Jerusalem, March 13, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/ Flash90)
If and when that war happens, stunning operations like those we have seen carried out against Hezbollah in recent weeks will have to be launched as part of a comprehensive and decisive campaign — not as standalone tactical successes. In other words, Israel today is still fighting Hezbollah as if it is a terrorist organization it wants to keep quiet, and not an enemy army it intends to destroy.
If Hezbollah does back down, Netanyahu would be well-served to end the strategic muddle in Gaza and dramatically enhance military pressure on Hamas to destroy the organization’s remaining capabilities and possibly convince its leader Yahya Sinwar to agree to a hostage deal. That effort will need to be supported by a concerted program to replace Hamas civil rule in Gaza, a crucial element that has been far too long in coming.
However, if Israel fails to compel Nasrallah to call the rockets off and is left with no choice but war in Lebanon, Sinwar will see his plan finally come to fruition. He has staked his hopes for survival on Muslim states and armed groups joining the fight, forcing Israel to shift its focus from Gaza and leaving Hamas intact.
Israel finds itself in a perilous strategic environment, and daring tactical successes don’t guarantee a way out. Only determined, aggressive military moves against Hamas, coupled with a civil effort to replace the terror group, free from domestic political considerations, can bring the victory in Gaza that is long overdue.
And when the time comes for Israel to fight Hezbollah on the ground in Lebanon, the same principles will apply.
This is a developing story.
end
Defense establishment in disagreement on Sinwar’s possible death
No source has presented definitive evidence about whether Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar has died.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 22, 2024 22:03Updated: SEPTEMBER 22, 2024 22:44
Hamas leader Yehya Al-Sinwar speaks to the media following a meeting with U.N. mediators, in Gaza City June 21, 2021.(photo credit: REUTERS/MOHAMMED SALEM)
The IDF stated on Sunday that they can neither confirm nor deny reports on the possible death of Hamas Chief Yahya Sinwar.
Among sources consulted by The Jerusalem Post, a top source poured cold water on the notion, another source – who would be expected to have information – said they had no real information on it, while others noted disagreements within the defense establishment.
No sources referred to any kind of specific assassination operation that the IDF had carried out to kill him.
Rather, part of the debate may surround the idea that he has been out of touch with his middlemen who handled hostage negotiations and messaging – who have been out of touch for a longer period than usual.
It is also possible that some Israeli officials are trying to use psychological warfare against mid-level Hamas commanders to get them to cut some of their own deals for immunity if they return Israeli hostages in their custody.
Palestinian Hamas militants take part in a rally during the 35th anniversary of Hamas founding, in Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip, December 14, 2022. (credit: REUTERS/IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA)
The reports circulated late Sunday night.
In December, numerous reports leaked that Sinwar was dead or wounded, had fled to Sinai, or was otherwise cut off from his network and no longer in command.
It later turned out that he simply had been out of touch as part of his hiding tactics, or that all of the rumors were psychological warfare trying to get Hamas to crack after Khan Yunis started to fall to the IDF.
END
ISRAEL/LEBANON/MONDAY
‘Hezbollah is endangering you’: Hagari warns Lebanese near terror targets to flee South Lebanon
Hagari’s warning was unusual and different from mass evacuation warnings issued to date in Gaza.
The IDF, around 6:30 a.m. on Monday, initiated a fifth round of massive air strikes on Hezbollah, especially in southern Lebanon, including further from the border than in some prior cases. Starting Monday morning, the IDF has attacked over 150 targets using dozens of fighter jets from all Air Force squadrons.
There were also significant attacks against Hezbollah deep into Lebanon in the Bekaa Valley.
IDF Chief Spokesman Daniel Hagari, for the first time, issued a broad warning to the general public in southern Lebanon that if they have not already moved away from houses and other civilian buildings where they live and reside – but where Hezbollah has stored rockets or undertaken other actions – now they must leave those areas.
Hagari’s warning was unusual and different from mass evacuation warnings issued to date in Gaza.
The warning was the first sort of mass evacuation warning to southern Lebanese regarding areas where Hezbollah is operating.
Continuing in that vein, hundreds of thousands of southern Lebanese civilians have evacuated areas that the IDF has been attacking already for several months.
So, a warning was issued to those who have not yet evacuated.
However, the IDF did not tell the southern Lebanese civilians that they must completely leave the area to move to some other further away specified area.
It was not clear where the IDF would suggest these evacuating civilians should go permanently if, in fact, their homes were to get bombed due to holding terror assets.
Also, it was not like a Gaza evacuation, as Hagari did not yet suggest that the IDF would be invading with ground troops, but more that it would be striking with additional intensity from the air, including at civilian locations where terror assets have been located.
To illustrate his point, Hagari displayed an example of a southern Lebanese civilian location where the IDF, a few weeks ago, watched Hezbollah knock down some of the walls in order to set up a camouflaged civilian location for the firing of a Russian-made DR-4 cruise missile, with hundreds of kilos of explosives.
Tharwting of a Hezbollah crusie missile ready to launch, September 23, 2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESMAN’S UNIT)
“We are exposing Hezbollah’s tactic of hiding a cruise missile inside a residential home. The terrorists created a designated opening to launch the missile,” Hagari explained.
Hagari said that the cruise missile, a much larger danger than typical Hezbollah rockets because it flies lower and faster in a line-drive type fashion as opposed to rockets, which fly slower and in an arch trajectory, had been smuggled to Hezbollah via Syria.
Next, Hagari showed the IDF watching Hezbollah terrorists exiting the area.
Finally, he showed the IDF blowing up both the cruise missile and the civilian location where it was hidden, along with the Hezbollah terrorists.
“Here, you can see how we identified the terrorists as they made an opening in the building, revealing the missile. In a precise strike, the IDF neutralized both the terrorists and the missile launch infrastructure just moments before the planned launch,” Hagari explained.
One of the purposes of Hagari’s public statements, which have subtitles in Arabic, was to broaden the warning to southern Lebanese civilians to leave such areas, while another purpose was to preempt Western criticism for targeting civilian areas, to explain the IDF’s justification.
Under international law, civilian areas can be targeted if warnings are provided and if those areas have been used for military purposes.
In addition, the IDF said that it had shot down attempted aerial attacks from Iraq around 4:00 a.m.
Hagari’s warning
Hagari, warning the Lebanese civilians, emphasized, “Hezbollah is endangering you and your families. Hezbollah is planning to launch weapons against Israel, and you should distance yourselves immediately for your safety.”
“We are exposing Hezbollah’s tactic of hiding a cruise missile inside a residential home. The terrorists created a designated opening to launch the missile,” he added.
Furthermore, the IDF sent out text messages to the southern Lebanese citizens urging them to stay away from Hezbollah structures, Israeli media reported.
“If you are in a building containing Hezbollah weapons, move away immediately until further notice,” the text message sent to the civilians reportedly read.
Additionally, Haragi addressed the evacuated citizens of Israel’s North, stating that he “will do whatever is necessary to restore citizens to their homes and ensure their safety.”
“We will do whatever is necessary to restore northern citizens to their homes. We are operating on an undercover operation, and we continue to do so to protect the citizens of Israel,” Haragi emphasized.
Hezbollah’s human shields
According to Ynet, ten years ago, Hezbollah launched a secret initiative to offer financial incentives to Shia households in southern Lebanon if they allocated a room of their house to a long range missile launcher. The missile, with a heavy warhead, would be ready to launch from that room. The room would have a removable roof, allowing it to be fired quickly.
Ynet added that Hezbollah specifically chose poor Shia families who needed extra income. Reportedly, Hezbollah purchased plots of land and constructed residential homes on them, offering them at a reduced price of for free if the families were willing to store missiles.
Can neither confirm nor deny if Sinwar is alive
When Hagari was asked about the last time the IDF received a sign of life from Hamas Head Yahya Sinwar, Hagari responded that he could neither confirm nor deny if Sinwar was alive.
Smoke billows from the site of Israeli airstrikes in Aramti, near the Lebanon-Israel border, on September 23, 2024.(photo credit: RABIH DAHER/AFP via Getty Images)
The IDF hit over 300 Hezbollah targets during two major rounds of strikes against Hezbollah on Monday.
The second round of strikes followed a warning from IDF spokesperson R. Admiral Daniel Hagari to the public in southern Lebanon to evacuate areas where the terror group had stored rockets or conducted other activities. Lebanon received more than 80,000 suspected Israeli call attempts asking people to evacuate their areas, the head of telecoms company Ogero, Imad Kreidieh, told Reuters on Monday.
Following the strikes, the Lebanese Health Ministry announced that 100 people in Lebanon had been killed and more than 300 wounded from the attacks.
These waves of air strikes constituted the fifth and sixth round of massive air strikes on Hezbollah since Thursday of last week, especially in southern Lebanon, including further from the border than in some prior cases.
Among the attacks was a significant strike against Hezbollah deep into Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley. A senior Hezbollah official, Ali Aburia, was reportedly killed in one of the IAF strikes on Lebanon, Sky News Arabia reported on Monday, citing multiple sources.
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Marjayoun, near the Lebanon-Israel border, on September 23, 2024. The Israeli military on September 23 told people in Lebanon to move away from Hezbollah targets and vowed to carry out more ”extensive and precise” strikes against the Iran-back (credit: RABIH DAHER/AFP via Getty Images)
Lebanon’s prime minister responds to the strikes
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati denounced Israel’s strikes, calling them part of a “destructive plan,” Al Arabiya reported.
“The continuing Israeli aggression on Lebanon is a war of extermination in every sense of the word and a destructive plan that aims to destroy Lebanese villages and towns,” Mikati told a cabinet meeting.
He reportedly urged the UN to “deter Israeli aggression.”
Warning southern civilians
Before the strikes, the IDF sent out text messages to the southern Lebanese citizens urging them to stay away from Hezbollah structures, Israeli media reported.
“If you are in a building containing Hezbollah weapons, move away immediately until further notice,” the text message sent to the civilians reportedly read.
Furthermore, The Jerusalem Post confirmed that Israel took control of radio broadcasts shortly before 8 a.m., instructing residents in southern Lebanon to evacuate areas where Hezbollah weapons were concentrated.
A Lebanese man checks a message received on his mobile phone in Beirut on September 23, 2024, calling people to evacuate the areas where Hezbollah hides its weapons. Israel’s military pounded Hezbollah targets in south and east Lebanon on September 23 and said more strikes were coming (credit: JOSEPH EID/AFP via Getty Images)
According to a Reuters reporter, residents in southern Lebanon also received calls from a Lebanese number ordering them to distance themselves 1,000 meters from any Hezbollah post immediately.
Additionally, the command of UNIFIL, the UN force in Lebanon, ordered all of its civilian employees to leave with their families to safe areas north of the Litani River, security sources told the Hezbollah-affiliated newspaper Al-Akhbar newspaper.
Restoring safety in the North
Israel’s opposition leader, Yair Lapid, in response to the attacks, said that the strikes on Lebanon must continue until safety is restored in Israel’s North and evacuated civilians can return to their homes.
“What began early this morning after a significant delay must only end when Hezbollah is pushed back from the northern border, the residents return to their homes, and life here in Nahariya and throughout the northern region returns to normal, including children going back to school.”
“Now, we must continue. We offer our support to the security forces and the Israel Air Force,” Lapid concluded.
ISRAEL/LEBANON
US Sends More Troops To Mideast As Israel Strikes Beirut, Hezbollah Targets Haifa
MONDAY, SEP 23, 2024 – 01:12 PM
Update(1312ET): For the second time since Friday,Israel has launched a major strike on the southern Beirut neighborhood ofDahiyam, in what the IDF says was a targeted strike on senior Hezbollah leader Ali Karaki. In last Friday’s strike several Hezbollah commanders were taken out, in an attack which also left many civilian casualties. Karaki’s fate is unclear at this point. He’s widely reported to be Hezbollah’s head of its southern front operations.
This has been the heaviest day of fighting in nearly a year since Oct.7, with the IDF saying by Monday evening it has struck about 800 targets in Lebanon today alone. “The IDF is striking to remove threats to Israeli civilians and degrade Hezbollah’s terrorist infrastructure and capabilities,” a statement said. Israel has also just declared an emergency “special situation” for the entire country as this looks to be the start of all-out war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. The total Lebanese death toll is fast approaching 300.
Thousands fleeing south Lebanon amid severe uptick in fighting:
The Pentagon has at the same time said it is deploying additional US troops to the region amid the escalation, but it’s unclear where precisely the will be, or what the mission is. In total some 40,000 US troops are stationed in the broader region.
Not only are tens of thousands of panicked Lebanese fleeing the south, but Israelis in and near Haifa are also seeking shelter as Hezbollah rockets reach in and around the port city. Israel’s Iron Dome has been intercepting inbound barrages all day, but some are clearly making it through.
The cabinet approves a “special situation” on Israel’s home front, according to multiple media reports.
A “special situation” is a legal term used in times of emergency, granting authorities greater jurisdiction over the civilian population in order to streamline efforts to safeguard the population. It is valid for 48 hours unless extended by cabinet ministers.
No specific changes in IDF Home Front Command instructions were announced.
The government of Lebanon has ordered that classes be canceled for public and private schools across various parts of the country, especially in the south, as it is becoming evident that Israel-Hezbollah fighting is expanding, and with Israeli attacks getting bigger and bigger.
The current emergency directive will see schools closed for at least two days with extensions likely after that. The new measure is aimed at protecting civilians and impacts the governates of South Lebanon, Nabatieh, Bekaa, Baalbek-Hermel and the southern suburbs, according to the education ministry.
Long lines of cars and traffic jams have been seen leaving southern Lebanon and some coastal towns for the capital of Beirut. The Israeli Defense Forces actually previewed that it plans to strike more residential buildings, and possibly even more locations in crowded Beirut.
It released a video graphic accusing Hezbollah of storing missiles and munitions among the civilian population – for example, under buildings. Critics have warned that Israel is opening justifying destroying civilian residences ahead of time, on the assumption they must have arsenals hidden within them.
The IDF has accused Hezbollah of hiding missiles, shoulder-fired rockets, and UAVs inside civilian homes and has warned it will use ‘precision’ strikes to take them out:
Israel now appears to be encouraging the depopulation of southern Lebanon so that it can expand the war. Many thousands have reportedly already fled as panic sets in.
Israeli Army Spokesman Daniel Hagari announced Monday: “To all the residents of villages in Lebanon, soon we will attack terrorist targets in Lebanon, we call on everyone who is near properties or inside houses where Hezbollah is hiding Ammunition to stay away from them immediately.”
Lebanon’s Health Ministry has said that the death toll from attacks on the country just from Monday so far have surpassed 182, with over 700 people wounded—though without specifying numbers of militants and civilians among these.
The death toll in Israeli attacks across Lebanon today has risen to 182, the Health Ministry announced. Another 727 people were wounded in the attacks.
Some of the Israeli strikes are reportedly reaching deep into Lebanon – far beyond the south. This is reflected in a fresh Hezbollah statement saying it has launched dozens of missiles against Israeli military posts “in response to the Israeli enemy attacks that targeted the south and Bekaa areas.”
Hezbollah also claims to still be hitting the “Rafael defense industry complexes” which lies north of the city of Haifa. This also represents Hezbollah targeting Israeli locations deeper inside Israel than ever before.
In another ominous sign that things are sliding quickly toward all-out war, Lebanon’s Health Ministry has issued a fresh statement wherein it asks all hospitals in south and east Lebanon districts “to stop all non-essential surgery in order to make space to treat the wounded due to the expanding Israeli aggression on Lebanon.”
Israeli towns in the north of the country are also taking precautions amid stepped-up Hezbollah rocket launches by moving hospital patients to underground facilities.
Meanwhile an Al Jazeera correspondent has described, “We saw intense strikes all day. We’ve heard drones and fighter jets. This is not an escalation any more, this is certainly a war all but in name.”
Heavy strikes are hitting apparent ammo storage sites in the Bekaa Valley, some 20 miles east of Beirut…
This week’s evidence that Russia escalated is clear. The US special forces in Kursk are dead. Most if not all of Kursk invaders will be dead by mid October.
Western military in communication centre in Ukraine dead. New secret satellites launched this week by Russia.
Donbas conflict lines collapsing under non stop bombing and shelling. There is no delay or quarter the meat grinder has led up. The Russian parliament (DUMA) has responded clearly to the threat of escalation. What part of foolhardy thinking exists that Russia will not surrender?
If you doubt they read what Scott has written. And listen to the Duma who speaks of Sarmat come a calling. Apart from the EU not being able to defend itself against a response the US is equally incapable.
And dusting off old airfields in the Pacific which were once used to attack Japan to strike China are not so secret as not to be noticed by China and Russia. China has already stated that they will stand with Russia in a fight. And you can assume they are not bluffing.
Leadership at the political level is beyond awful.
Pfizer BioNTech COVID19 Bioweapon: Self Assembled Liposomes After 2 Weeks At Room Temperature. Correlations To COVID19 Vaccinated Embalmed Blood And Unvaccinated Live Blood – Its All The Same!
This is nothing short of shocking! From this, if it is correct, it appears that none of us really understand what has been done with all these vaccinations. Nor the fallout from them. Presumably, if such technology can be shed human to human; does this imply that it can be shed to animals? And if so does that mean that eating meat products means there is a transfer to humans? What is clear is that no one is immune. It also begs the question of what happens with a blood transfusion from one person to another? Because if everyone has degree of this nanotechnology present within; then it follows that this type of technology is different by blood type and individual DNA and may not adapt in uniform to being mixed. Clearly more research is needed to really gain understanding.
violated.’ Melania who remains so very graceful under all filth she has been put through, is really WARNING the establishment to PRAY 45 does NOT get elected for he is coming for you with same FBI
So, it is up to us the people to help protect POTUS Trump and his family, FLOTUS Melania and son etc. They are after him, they will not stop…he is a good man, and the best option we have…we have 4 years under him to save USA and the world.
Oklahoma removes nearly HALF A MILLION ineligible voters from voting rollsOklahoma nuked nearly half a million ineligible voters from their voting rolls since 2021, ensuring the deep red state will remain deep red. Here’s the video: BREAKING: Oklahoma officials just announced that they have removed 450,000 ineligible names from the voter rolls, including 100,000 dead people and 15,000 duplicate registrations that somehow got pushed into the system “Oklahoma ensures only …READ THE FULL REPORT
Disturbing new story alleges Tim Walz may have leaked classified military info to China…A new disturbing story is out tonight alleging that Tim Walz may have leaked classified military information on the M109A5 howitzer to the communist regime in China. It’s at best circumstantial evidence, if you want to call it that, but it is very interesting. The story also explains how one of Walz’s students recounts how the governor and VP candidate …READ THE FULL REPORT
The scandal CNN story about Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson drops…Lt. Governor Mark Robinson said today that the words that we are about to hear are not his and suggested this scandal is fake news. So what is it? It’s supposedly his comments that he made in the past on porn websites and such: NEW: In comments made on the forum of a porn website between 2008 and 2012, Mark …READ THE FULL REPORT
Corrupt Kamala uses DEBUNKED abortion story to turn Georgians against President Trump…Democrats are all the time hyperventilating about misinformation on the right but they could care less about spewing their own lies, even when the story has already been debunked. Today Corrupt Kamala was in the state of Georgia and used a debunked story about a girl who died from the use of an abortion pill to smear President Trump and …READ THE FULL REPORT
Russia is accelerating its natural gas exports to China through the Power of Siberia pipeline, aiming to hit maximum capacity by the end of 2024—a full year ahead of schedule. Gazprom, Russia’s state-run energy giant, has agreed with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) to boost December supplies, reaching the pipeline’s designed capacity of 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) annually.
This increase in gas flows reflects Russia’s pivot towards China, as Moscow seeks to replace lost European buyers following its invasion of Ukraine. Gazprom has already ramped up deliveries, shipping 20.8 bcm in the first eight months of 2024, according to Bloomberg calculations, closing in on last year’s total of 22.7 bcm.
In addition to the Power of Siberia pipeline, Russia is developing a second pipeline from its Far East, expected to add 10 bcm per year by 2027. However, negotiations for the proposed Power of Siberia 2, which could push total Russian gas exports to China to nearly 100 bcm annually, have stalled over pricing disagreements. A recent decision by Mongolia’s government not to include funding for Power of Siberia 2’s pipeline construction in its five-year economic plan has widely been understood to mean that China is rethinking the pipeline project.
While China has emerged as Russia’s top energy customer, Beijing is reassessing its dependence on Russian gas. Geopolitical concerns, the risk of over-reliance, and China’s interest in diversifying its energy sources are driving this reconsideration.
Despite this, Russia remains eager to grow its pipeline exports to China, as European markets continue to shrink under sanctions and alternative energy investments. The ongoing discussions and developments signal a significant shift in Russia’s energy strategy, with China playing a central role in its future plans.
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
VENEZUELA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1122 DOWN 0.0023
USA/ YEN 143.48 DOWN 0.098NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE TRYING TO RE ESTABLISH
GBP/USA 1.3313 UP 0005
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3545 DOWN. 0016 (CDN DOLLAR UP 16 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 12.14 PTS OR .44%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 245 PTS OR 1,56%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.24%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 245,41PTS OR 1,56%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 12.14 PTS OR .44%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.24%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 568,58 POINTS OR 1,53%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2615.10
silver:$31,30
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 100.56 UP 23 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0553 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.0584)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.15 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.847
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 6 in basis points from FRIDAY at 3.791% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.129 UP 5 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.618 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2633.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.95
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 29.72 PTS OR 0.36%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 12678 OR 0.48%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 7.82 PTS OR 0.10%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 44.40 OR 0.31%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 82.45 OR 0.24%
WTI Oil price 71.48 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 75.05 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.84 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 40/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1910 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.980 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.011 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.795 UP 3
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1115 DOWN 0.0030 OR 30 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3340UP 0.0038 OR 38 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.9250 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.847
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.48 DOWN 0.088 UP 9 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3508 DOWN 0.0052 CDN dollar UP 52 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.47
Brent OIL: 73.98
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 3.749
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 4.089%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 3.585
CDN 10 YR RATE 2.966 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.759 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.58 UP 17 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.14 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.98DOWN 0 AND 37/100 roubles
GOLD 2,627,00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.67 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 61.29 PTS OR 0.15%
NASDAQ UP 60.71 PTS OR 0.31%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.79 DOWN 0.36PTS OR 2.23%
GLD: $242.68 UP 0.47OR 0.19%
SLV/ $27,98 DOWN ,43OR 1.51%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Markets Calm Ahead Of Macro Storm, But…
Monday, Sep 23, 2024 – 04:01 PM
After last week’s chaotic dumps and pumps across various asset classes amid Powell’s comments, a giant ‘quad witch’ OpEx, and mean-reverting FedSpeak, today saw markets take a pause (of sorts) with stocks, bonds, the dollar, gold, and crypto all relatively flat close-to-close…
…with only crude oil showing any real action – monkeyhammered lower for no apparently good reason…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s apparently calm demeanour perhaps reflects anxious traders gearing up for a pretty busy week of ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ data, including the Thursday’s durable goods report, Friday’s PCE inflation report, plus the Consumer Confidence survey and Richmond Fed survey tomorrow.
The vol market is showing nervousness (and the election is well and truly priced in)…
Source: Bloomberg
All the US majors plunged as European PMIs hit at the European open (ugly across the board). Then futs rallied into the US open, only to be sold again with Small Caps the biggest losers on the day. Of course, we managed a new closing high for both The Dow and S&P 500 though…
Mag7 stocks continued in their post-Powell surge wedge…
Source: Bloomberg
A somewhat chaotic looking day under the hood in stocks with energy puking at the open, then panic bid, then dumped into the European close. Discretionary outperformed as Real Estate lagged…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks and bonds remain significantly decoupled since the July FOMC meeting…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were relatively unchanged close-to-close, despite selling pressure during the EU session and buying during US…
Source: Bloomberg
The yield curve continues to steepen dramatically with 2s10s up yo +16bps today – its steepest since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Not exactly a good sign for those hoping that The Fed will bring down mortgage rates.
The dollar also ended flat on the day after surging on the EU PMIs (EUR weakness) and then fading back into its recent range…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold limped a bit higher – another record high but was basically unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ripped higher overnight (topping $64,500) before fading back to almost unchanged…
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum continues to outperform Bitcoin, surging up to one-month highs on a relative basis…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, this just happened…
Source: Bloomberg
That is a sudden surge in the market’s perception of USA’s short-term sovereign credit risk.
Are traders starting to worry about Kamalanomics (Communism?)
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Hard data Mfg and service PMI’s plunge
(zerohedge)
US Manufacturing PMI Plunges To 15-Month Lows; Prices Are Soaring Again
Monday, Sep 23, 2024 – 09:54 AM
Following the shitshow that was European PMIs overnight, preliminary September soft survey data for the US was expected to be mixed with Services weaker but Manufacturing bouncing back a little.
Despite strength in ‘hard’ data relative to expectations, PMIs disappointed in the early September print with both Services and Manufacturing falling.
S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI 47.0 (48.6 exp, 47.9 prior) – lowest since June 2023
S&P Global US Services PMI 55.4 (55.2 exp, 55.7 prior) – two-month lows
“The early survey indicators for September point to an economy that continues to grow at a solid pace, albeit with a weakened manufacturing sector and intensifying political uncertainty acting as substantial headwinds. A reacceleration of inflation is meanwhile also signalled, suggesting the Fed cannot totally shift its focus away from its inflation target as it seeks to sustain the economic upturn.
“The sustained robust expansion of output signaled by the PMI in September is consistent with a healthy annualized rate of GDP growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. But there are some warning lights flashing, notably in terms of the dependence on the service sector for growth, as manufacturing remained in decline, and the worrying drop in business confidence.
Under the hood, things are more worrisome:
“Business sentiment, demand, hiring and investment are being subdued by uncertainty surrounding the Presidential Election, casting a shadow over the outlook for the year ahead at many firms.
“The survey’s price gauges meanwhile serve as a warning that, despite the PMI indicating a further deterioration of the hiring trend in September, the FOMC may need to move cautiously in implementing further rate cuts. Prices charged for goods and services are both rising at the fastest rates for six months, with input costs in the services sector – a major component of which is wages and salaries – rising at the fastest rate for a year.”
Stagflation Anyone… Not exactly what a 50-bps-rate-cutting Fed wants to see!!!
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
another freeze on student loan forgiveness plan of Biden. He is such a doorknob
(zerohedge)
Federal Judge Extends Freeze On Biden Admin’s Newest Student Loan Forgiveness Plan
A federal judge has extended the restraining order blocking the Biden administration’s latest student loan forgiveness initiative, referred to in court filings as the “Third Mass Cancellation Rule.”
This extension follows allegations from a coalition of states claiming that the program is being implemented secretly without proper public notice or approval.
In the ongoing lawsuit led by Missouri against the Department of Education, U.S. District Judge Randal Hall ruled on Sept. 19 that there was “good cause” to prolong the temporary restraining order—which he initially issued earlier in the month—by an additional 14 days.
The extension follows a hearing where both sides presented arguments on competing motions—the plaintiffs seeking a preliminary injunction and the defendants pushing for the case’s dismissal.
Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey called the decision a “huge win” in a Sept. 18 social media post following the judge’s in-court decision, which was formalized in the order issued the following day.
In his written order, the judge explained that the extension allows the court time to thoroughly review the arguments presented in briefs and oral submissions before ruling on the broader motions.
The case stems from a lawsuit filed on Sept. 3 in the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of Georgia by seven states: Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Missouri, North Dakota, and Ohio.
The complaint names Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, the Department of Education, and President Joe Biden as defendants. The states allege that documents reveal Cardona is “unlawfully trying to mass cancel hundreds of billions of dollars” in student loans and has “quietly” instructed federal contractors to start the cancellation process as early as Sept. 7, potentially wiping out as much as $73 billion overnight, with further cancellations to follow.
The complaint further alleges that the real cost of the “Third Mass Cancellation Rule” program could reach $146.9 billion, adding to the $475 billion estimated cost of the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) program that Cardona first proposed in August 2022.
“This is the third time the Secretary has unlawfully tried to mass cancel hundreds of billions of dollars in loans,“ the states’ complaint reads.
”Courts stopped him the first two times, when he tried to do so openly. So now he is trying to do so through cloak and dagger.”
The plaintiffs allege that Cardona’s third attempt at loan forgiveness is both the most aggressive and the least legally defensible.
Unlike prior attempts—such as with the SAVE plan, in which there was at least some transparency and litigation pauses—this latest move allegedly bypasses legal requirements, such as the 60-day notice rule, according to the complaint.
The Biden administration’s first attempt to cancel student loans was blocked when the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against using the Health and Economic Recovery Omnibus Emergency Solutions (HEROES) Act to authorize debt forgiveness.
The second attempt, related to the SAVE Plan, was halted by an Aug. 9 decision of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit, which the Supreme Court declined to overturn later in August.
The SAVE program aims to reduce monthly payments for millions of eligible borrowers based on their income levels and to accelerate student loan forgiveness. An estimated 8 million borrowers signed up for the program. Under SAVE, borrowers with lower incomes could qualify for significantly reduced or even zero monthly payments, while accrued interest on these loans would no longer be charged.
However, the Eighth Circuit found that Missouri and the other states challenging the program are likely to succeed in their claim that the SAVE plan violates the major questions doctrine. This legal principle requires courts to assume that government agencies cannot make significant policy decisions—especially those with far-reaching economic impacts—without clear authorization from Congress.
As a result, the Eighth Circuit issued a temporary, nationwide injunction that halts the federal government’s ability to forgive student loan principal or interest under the SAVE plan. The injunction also suspends the provisions that prevent interest from accruing on loans and those that allow borrowers to make reduced or zero payments based on their income.
The Supreme Court declined to reinstate the SAVE plan, leaving the case to proceed in the lower court, where the case remains pending. Most recently, on Sept. 10, the court granted the solicitor general of Missouri more time to file briefs in the case.
The Department of Education did not respond to The Epoch Times’ request for comment by publication time.
END
This is something that the USA did not need
(zerohedge)
“The Biggest Wild Card In The Presidential Election”: Just Days Left Until A Crippling Port Strike Paralyzes The East Coast
SUNDAY, SEP 22, 2024 – 03:10 PM
Late last week, the CEO of Flexport – one of largest US supply-chain logistics operators – warned that “the biggest wild card in the presidential election that nobody’s talking about? The looming port strike that could shut down all East and Gulf Coast ports just 36 days before the election.”
The biggest wild card in the presidential election that nobody’s talking about? The looming port strike that could shut down all East and Gulf Coast ports just 36 days before the election. 🧵
With just over a week to go until D-Day, authorities are gearing up as a threatened strike by dockworkers at ports along the East Coast and Gulf Coast draws closer.
The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey is “coordinating with partners across the supply chain to prepare for any impacts” from a possible work stoppage by workers represented by the International Longshoremen’s Association as they negotiate with the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), a Port Authority spokesperson told CBS MoneyWatch on Friday.
“We urge both sides to find common ground and keep the cargo flowing for the good of the national economy,” added the spokesperson, noting that $240 billion in goods move through the two ports each year and that such trade supports more than 600,000 local jobs.
According to the union, a strike would affect ports from Maine to Texas, and cripple supply-chains worse than the immediate aftermath of the covid shutdown. A stoppage – the first since 1977 – could involve up to 45,000 workers at ports that account for roughly 60% of U.S. shipping traffic, leading to a major disruption of shipments, Oxford Economics said in a report.
“Even a two-week strike could disrupt supply chains until 2025,” Grace Zwemmer, associate U.S. economist with Oxford, said in the report.
As Rabobank’s Michael Every adds, “US businesses could miss the key Black Friday/Cyber Monday peak sales period. Port trade is around $2.12trn, and 72% would grind to a halt, a one-day strike reportedly taking six days to recover from, a one-week strike in October creating bottlenecks until mid-November, not factoring in Red Sea disruptions caused by the not-terrorist Houthis.”
If goods are then forced to shift to the US West Coast ports, Rabobank speculates that Asia-US freight rates could leap to $20,000, far above the peak seen in the last supply-chain crisis. That would mean firms with low margins might opt not to import at all, creating empty shelves.
The ILA has threatened to strike if a new labor agreement with East Coast port terminal and shipping companies represented by the USMX is not reached by the time the current contract expires on October 1. Although the sides continue to negotiate, the odds of a rare strike that threatens to shut down some of the nation’s busiest ports are rising.
“There will be a shutdown, assuming that there’s is no intervention, at midnight on Monday the 30th,” Bethann Rooney, director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, the nation’s second-busiest port, told a briefing earlier in the week.
Should that occur, all activity loading and unloading cargo containers and automobiles would come to a standstill, while cruise ships would continue to operate, Rooney said.
The Port Authority isn’t involved in the bargaining between the ILA and USMX, bur rather leases space at the ports to shipping companies. Terminal operators and ocean carriers are “working to bring in as many ships as possible” ahead of a potential walkout, said Rooney.
Those steps include “working with truckers and the rail carriers to get as much cargo out as humanly possible, as quickly as possible,” the port director said.
The two ports are currently unloading about 20 large container ships a week, and they expect 150,000 containers to be unloaded ahead of the strike deadline, Rooney said.
“At the same time, ocean carriers are beginning to put essentially embargoes on export cargo “so that it doesn’t come into East and Gulf coast ports and then wind up sitting there,” she said.
Container ships carrying imports bound for Newark and Elizabeth in New Jersey and Staten Island in New York City will end up moored at specified spots in New York Harbor or off the coast during the strike, or remain at sea until they can come in. The Coast Guard and U.S. customs and Border Protection would oversee arriving ships at the port facilities once a strike was over.
The ILA union walked away from the bargaining table in June, declaring that a type of automation introduced at the Port of Mobile in Alabama was in violation of the current contract.
Based in North Bergen, New Jersey, the ILA represents 85,000 workers across the East and Gulf Coasts. The union is demanding sizable wage increases for its members as well as protection from “job-killing” automation.
The USMX has said it has not been able to schedule new bargaining sessions with the union.
“It is disappointing that we have reached this point where the ILA is unwilling to reopen dialogue unless all of its demands are met,” USMX said Tuesday in an update. “The only way to resolve this impasse is to resume negotiations, which we are willing to do at any time.”
While the Taft-Hartley Act gives the president the power to impose an 80-day cooling off period to delay a strike, Biden has said he doesn’t intend to use it here given the impact doing so could have on union votes; although with the Teamsters refusing to endorse Kamala despite the union’s traditional Democrat support (as the majority of its members polled back Trump) that may be a moot point.
On the other hand, Every warns that the kind of strike described above would likely cripple Harris’ chances come 5 November.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
END
TUCKER CARLSON….
SWAMP STORIES
.
KING REPORT
The King Report September 23, 2023 Issue 7332
Independent View of the News
Jefferies: iPhone 16 Update: Resale Prices Collapsed on Day One Our tracking of iPhone 16 resale prices today (first day of shipment) indicates they have collapsed within the first three hours of trading. And at around 1:30pm, dealers in the Mongkok area stopped buying any iPhone 16 models other than Pro Max in Desert color and 256GB. This is much worse than last year for iPhone 15, where 15PM still traded at a 3%-34% premium 4 days after shipment started. This supports our cautious view on China demand… https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/iphone-16-resale-prices-collapsed-within-the-first-three-hours-of-trading-3624963
The DJTA got crushed on Friday because FedEx’s lowered its full-year earnings to $20-$21 from $22.
ESZs traded moderately lower from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower after 4 ET. ESZs hit a low of 5759.00 at 7:35 ET. The rally for the NYSE opening, which included the usual pump & dump and expiry-related buying, took ESZs to 5773.50 at 8:45 ET.
Some traders couldn’t or wouldn’t wait for the NYSE opening to sell. They cut loose after 8:00 ET. ESZs then sank to a daily low of 5733.50 at 11:16 ET. The NY Fang+ Index was down >1%. Snowflake, -3.6%, led Fangs lower. Apple was +07% at the time.
The European close manipulation for ‘the marks’ took ESZs to 5749.50 at 11:35 ET. After a minor retreat, a Noon Balloon materialized. ESZ hit a peak of 5769.00 at 13:43 ET. After a slow rollover, ESZs sank to 5744.50 at 14:38 ET. It was manipulation time!
The confluence of expiration and the Friday Afternoon Rally generated a grand manipulation that took ESZs to 5775.00 at 15:38 ET. Alas, too many traders were long; ESZs fell to 5760.00 at 16:00 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session The manipulation for the September expiration created two strong intraday equity rallies.
Negative aspects of previous session Gold soared again; bonds declined early but finished with a modest gain. The DJTA tanked; Fangs were soft all session; the S&P 500 Index declined.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session With expiration and Fed Week upward biases over, are equities peaking?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5697.42 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5715.14; 5674.49
@RNCResearch: Jill, Ed.D., is now assisting whatever is left of Crooked Joe Biden in leading cabinet meetings. (A visibly feeble Joe turns over the Cabinet meeting to Jill!!!) https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1837175182277931486
Jill Biden leads one of lame-duck husband’s last Cabinet meetings before hosting Rose Garden party without himhttps://trib.al/4mhtbDt
@redsteeze” If you want to know why (NBC’s) @peteralexander and others stopped asking questions about Biden’s cognitive condition, this would be why.Jill Biden is letting him sit at the Resolute Desk while she plays Acting President. Disgraceful.https://x.com/redsteeze/status/1837240033180352925
@WarHorizon: Joe Biden has met leaders of Quad countries (India, Australia, Japan, US) at his home in Delaware, not in the White House. This is the first time in American history this has happened. The President meets leaders in the White House as per protocol.
@RNCResearch: Biden, with fellow Quad leaders, gets distracted by “that little thing up in the air” (a helicopter): “It’s not armed.” https://t.co/3HN81O42VR BIDEN: “Uhh, who am I introducing next? WHO’S NEXT?” He is completely and totally cooked — and Kamala Harris covered it up. https://t.co/g8zrqPsCeo
@VivekGRamaswamy: The Federal Reserve cut interest rates massively, just 48 days ahead of the election. Thank God for the independence of the Fed!…
Trump pitches capping annual credit card rates at 10%: ‘We can’t let them make 25 and 30%’https://t.co/J4ug9bi5BC
Wall Street elites have been vehemently anti-Trump due to his populism and anti-globalism. DJT is warning ‘them’ that he will not play nice with them like he did in his first term (inviting GS types to advise him on domestic policies). DJT’s 2nd term might very well be ‘The Trump Retribution Tour.’ ‘Tis why Hillary was so visible and highly agitated last week.
You can’t make this up! At a rally on Saturday Tim Walz bellowed, “We can’t afford four more years of this.” DJT must make an ad of this! https://t.co/d6FDhzmxK5
Walz roasted after making puzzling gaffe during rally: ‘Four more years of this’https://t.co/kcSXwmaHYa
NYT: “There remains a widespread sense that [Wisconsin] polling data should be viewed skeptically and that voters who support Mr. Trump are quietly waiting to vote in large numbers.”
@EricLDaugh: Pennsylvania, Florida and North Carolina all have seen a rightward trend in mail-in voting requests compared to this same point in 2020. The Democratic lead has declined in all three. https://t.co/E2CZo6Z0Np
@nicksortor: Ameer Ghalib, the Democrat Mayor of Hamtramck, Michigan, has just endorsed Trump for President… Ghalib endorsed Trump because he will “end the wars in the Middle East” and “he’s a man of principle.” (Could secure Michigan for DJT) https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1837974327536636223/photo/2
Today – Traders will play for the Monday Rally. However, stocks are extremely overbought on a short-term basis and the upward bias of expiration and Fed Week are over. Plus, the hope & hype for a 50bp Fed rate cut is over. Ergo, stocks are vulnerable to a spirited decline.
Expected Economic: Aug Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.20; Sept S&P Global US Mfg. 48.5, Services 55.2; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 8 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10:15 ET, Min Fed Pres Kashkari 13:00 ET
NQZs are +37.50; ESZs are +5.50 (usual Sunday night buying); and USZs are -9/32 at 20:10 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 5518100-day MA: 5435; 150-day MA: 5332; 200-day MA: 5200 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,603; 100-day MA: 39,833; 150-day MA: 39,483; 200-day MA: 39,032 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5702.53 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5298.80 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5527.30 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5627.88 triggers a sell signal
On Thursday night, Oprah held an event (in MI) to promote her BFF Kamala. It went so poorly that Team Obama-Harris proclaimed on Saturday that they accepted CNN’s invite for a debate on 10/23. There is NO way that Team Obama-Harris instigates another debate unless they are hurting in the polls.
DJT on Saturday said it was too late to debate because voting had begun. “She’s had her chance to do it with Fox… but now she wants to do a debate right before the election because she’s losing badly…”
But wait! There’s more! On Saturday, video evidence showed that Kamala used a Teleprompter during her Kumbaya session with her BFF Oprah – and she still botched the glorification session!
@nicksortor: Apparently Kamala Harris had a freaking TELEPROMPTER during her “interview” with Oprah… The first several lines of the teleprompter were part of Kamala’s final statement. She was reading off a teleprompter. https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1837678056372158668 There’s more. She even had to fake her zoom support. There’s literally NOTHING real about this campaign. It’s all one big fraud. https://t.co/OAjS8XDmwa
@joma_gc: Kamala is holding a “special event” with Oprah Winfrey right now and is having a hard time getting over 10,000 live viewers.
Asked how she will lower prices, Kamala spewed word salad: “Yeah. I first of all, thank you both for being here and yours is a, a story I hear around the country as I travel, and in terms of both rightly, having the right to have aspirations and dreams and ambitions for your family and working hard and finding that the American dream is for this generation and so many recently far more elusive than it’s been, and we need to deal with that. And there are a number of ways. One is bringing down the cost of everyday necessities, including groceries…” https://t.co/7qHNaBL6U9
@KateHydeNY: This might just be the most spectacular two minutes of Kamala’s nonsensical wisdom I have ever heard. (almost an entire salad bar!) https://t.co/VkeCA2oLew
@TrumpWarRoom: Kamala says Americans need to be talking to their “friends” and “neighbors” about “misinformation and help them now see how it occurs and where it is occurring.” https://t.co/83Tgt4lOMF
Kamala Harris gets called out by Oprah Winfrey for dodging question at Michigan campaign event, again offers no proposals – Harris was questioned about what she would do to secure the southern border. “So it’s a wonderful and important question. I, you know, my background was as a prosecutor, and I was also the elected attorney general for two terms of the border state. So this is not a theoretical issue for me. This is something I’ve actually worked on,” Harris began in her three-minute answer, which ended with her blasting Republicans for not passing the bipartisan border bill. “Now that that bill is gone and hasn’t passed, will you introduce–” the billionaire talk show host asked before Harris cut in. “Absolutely,” the vice president replied. “When I am elected as president of the United States, I will make sure that bill gets to my desk and I will sign it into law,” Harris said, without offering any new policies on how to solve the crisis at the southern border… https://nypost.com/2024/09/19/us-news/kamala-harris-gets-called-out-by-oprah-winfrey-for-dodging-question-at-michigan-campaign-event-again-offers-no-proposals/
MAGA ridicules Kamala Harris for serving up ‘word salads’ to Oprah Winfrey during star studded political forum – Harris also launched into a circular soliloquy to close her appearance with Winfrey as she spoke about freedom and patriotism. ‘We love our country. I love our country. I know we all do, that’s why everybody’s here right now. We love our country. We– we take pride in the privilege of being American and this is a moment where we can and must come together as Americans, understanding we have so much more in common than what separates us… Let’s come together with the character that we’re so proud about who we are which is we are an optimistic people.’… https://trib.al/LHiUPXC
CNN: “[Kamala] said at one point, ‘well if someone tries to break into my home, they’re going to get shot.’ She made that comment and said that her staff would clean that up. You are on Kamala Harris’ staff. Can you give us some more information…when did she get it?” Harris campaign spokesperson (Adrienne Elrod): “She does own a firearm. Uhm, I can’t really comment more than that.”https://x.com/NRA/status/1837560969943568613
Two days after telling Oprah that she owned a gun, a Harris aide told CNN’s Jim Acosta that Harris does NOT own a gun. Harris lied, or she has a gun and did not register it (felony). https://t.co/htOBcbYz9t
Kamala Harris adviser claims vice president’s comment about guns was meant as a ‘joke’ The comment about shooting someone was meant as a joke, and claimed that the comment “humanizes” the vice president… https://t.co/T8lVldHoqB
Kamala Harris’ major vulnerability is that she comes across as phony and unlikeable. This is why ‘they’ are hiding her. Alfred Hitchcock once stated that actors cannot fake likeability, with the exception being Cary Grant. There was “only one actor in the world so formidably skilled that he could fake a charm he did not in fact possess.”
Kamala Harris adviser Keisha Lance Bottoms offers lame excuse for VP’s press dodging: ‘She’s a very busy person’https://t.co/pd0TEYK8XR
@MaryMargOlohan: Oprah and Kamala blame Amber Thurman’s death on pro-life laws — then play a montage which explains that her death was not, in fact, due to pro-life laws but complications from abortion drugs. https://t.co/wo1rapObiu
Kamala Harris uses debunked abortion death story to attack Trump, rally Dems in Georgia Kamala Harris cited a debunked report Friday to blame former President Donald Trump for the death of a Georgia woman following a medically induced abortion — despite experts saying doctor error was to blame rather than Peach State restrictions on the procedure… https://t.co/p6yfF86syc
@bonchieredstate: Woman takes abortion pill and dies of sepsis because she didn’t get care that was 100% legal. CNN: “Death linked to state’s abortion law…” You don’t hate the press enough. https://x.com/bonchieredstate/status/1837168352759845132
@BillAckman: This is a fascinating analysis by a lighting expert of how ABC used lighting techniques to present @KamalaHarris more favorably than @realDonaldTrump during the debate and used the same approach with @Tim_Walz and @JDVance in their appearances. Even if you don’t care about the election, you will find this extremely helpful in understanding how the media can use lighting to manipulate viewers. A must watch. https://x.com/BillAckman/status/1837249749059006975 An alleged whistleblower has claimed that ABC made special accommodations for @KamalaHarris in, among other things, how she would appear relative to Trump when presented on a split screen view. This analysis appears to potentially corroborate this claim.
Harris’ critics sound off after VP is endorsed by IRS-affiliated union: ‘Get ready to be taxed to death’https://t.co/v9BlYOZG2q
Kamala Harris to skip traditional Al Smith dinner, first time presidential candidate has ducked (Catholic) charity event since 1984https://t.co/ZvYKvOlsMS
@CortesSteve: Of course, Kamala is skipping the Al Smith dinner(in NYC)!She has a history of anti-Catholic bigotry. See my article from her Senate days, her unconstitutional discrimination against faithful Catholics. https://t.co/ErZvyyrkwn
@its_The_Dr: Kamala Harris campaign is allegedly paying people $700 a week to travel around and attend all her events!!! Her entire campaign is based on lies. https://t.co/3vIONMJ3OA
Walz’s former National Guard colleague alleges classified nuclear manual went missing in Nebraska during his tenurehttps://t.co/DY2sH1TYFe
Biden campaign did not contact law enforcement about hacked Trump material, official says Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner said on Thursday that political campaigns by law should turn over material to the FBI when they receive hacked material… https://t.co/bVA8Nda121
@wirefalls: Vivek Ramaswamy says he offered $100,000 to help with strained services in Springfield and was turned down. Unbelievable!https://t.co/4lsOTF1DXT
GOP Sen. @ChuckGrassley: Scty Blinken says that spreading disinfo 2 deceive the public is an attack on society. When will he apologize 2 the American ppl for his involvement in the Oct 2020 letter from 51 intel “experts” that falsely discredited the (authentic) Hunter Biden laptop???
Star political reporter Olivia Nuzzi on leave from New York Magazine over alleged romantic relationship with RFK Jr. https://t.co/nydWVA9IP8
@MonicaCrowley: In new transcripts, General Milley confirms that days before January 6, President Trump requested “sufficient National Guard or Soldiers to make sure it’s a safe event.” Milley & others, including Pelosi, “unnecessarily delayed the DC National Guard response to the Capitol…due to “optics” concerns.” They framed President Trump so they could try to nail him with their “insurrection” BS. It’s all failed. And these criminals will have to answer for their actions. https://x.com/MonicaCrowley/status/1837176662624006562/photo/1
GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: Iran steals Trump campaign data. Provides it to the Harris campaign. That story disappears. Why isn’t the media covering it like the Russia “collusion” scandal?
Meta AI chatbot heaps praise on Kamala Harris, warns Trump is ‘crude and lazy’ https://trib.al/TYsxIoi
‘Obsessed’ Olivia Nuzzi (NY Mag reporter) pursued RFK Jr. ‘aggressively,’ pol had to block her repeatedly: source https://trib.al/n3ITjMn
@TheRabbitHole84: Only 3.4% of journalists are Republicans as of 2022
@JamesMelville: “In five years, scientists predict we will have the first ice-free Arctic summer.” — John Kerry back in 2009. https://t.co/yvAkSZ5mJr
Chicago gangbangers face off against newly arrived Venezuelan migrants: ‘City is going to go up in flames’ https://t.co/EltpWFAcwM
Chicago schools reportedly instructed teachers to give migrants passing grades regardless of performance https://t.co/be0huzPcBX
@WatsonSpeaking: Black homeschool students scored 23 to 42 percentile points above Black govt school students Black homeschooling families are fastest growing demographic; 4X in less than 2 yrs.
Camille Paglia: “Modern liberalism suffers unresolved contradictions… It expects government to provide materially for all, a feat manageable only by an expansion of authority and a swollen bureaucracy. In other words,liberalism defines government as tyrant father but demands that it act as nurturant mother… When the prestige of state and religion is low, men are free, but they find new ways to enslave themselves, through drugs or depression… https://newcriterion.com/article/in-the-footsteps-of-sade/
Financial writer and precious metals broker Bill Holter says the latest .5% rate cut by the Fed shows something is very wrong with the economy. There were some big reported problems a few months ago with the yen carry trade blowing up and 63 banks hiding $500 billion in losses. Now, billionaire investor Warren Buffett is selling off millions of shares in BofA stock, inflation has surged, along with business bankruptcies in America, and total household debt and federal debt has hit new all-time highs. This is just scratching the surface of the financial problems that are already here. The world is wrestling with unpayable debt everywhere. So, why the big rate cut now when the Fed says the economy is going great? Holter says, “I think there is absolute desperation. They look at the poll numbers, and they realize they are not going to be able to cheat enough to win. They certainly know behind the scenes that the entire system, including the Federal Reserve and including the Treasury, is all insolvent. So, yeah, there is absolute desperation. I was saying 10 years ago they would ultimately kick the table over because that’s the way to cover their tracks. They don’t want fingers pointed at them. So, what do you do? You nuke a city. Oh, then they can’t have an election, and their tracks get covered. . . .My odds for not having an election in November are now 65% to 70% we don’t have an election.”
Holter says keep your eyes on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and the real possibility of them starting to settle trade in something other than US dollars sooner than later. This is extremely dollar negative and highly inflationary. Holter contends we are going to see a massive credit crisis, and that will “bring things to a screeching halt.” Holter explains, “Nothing will function if credit ceases. It is used in every single process everywhere for everything. So, if credit breaks, and confidence breaks and credit is not forthcoming, then nothing is forthcoming. . . . You get some sort of credit event. Then stores are going to be wiped out immediately, but they are not going to be resupplied.”
Holter has long warned about a real-life Mad Max apocalyptic world where people scrounge for what they need to survive. Holter says, “Every day you wake up, you are only 72 hours away. I can’t tell you when this is going to happen. All I can say is the financial system in the West is untenable. From a math standpoint, this Mad Max scenario is going to happen. . . . When I first talked about Mad Max in 2017, I got an absolute rash of crap in emails and comments that said I was crazy, you are nuts, Mad Max will never happen because this is America. Now, it seems to me it’s common that people are using the term Mad Max over the last few years.”
Holter told me he no longer gets any negative comments when he brings up the Mad Max world he sees coming.
Holter says, “If there is an election, no matter who wins, there is going to be massive unrest. If Trump wins, there will be unrest that is paid for (by Democrats and the Deep State). And if Kamala wins, you will finally see polite conservatives, who have followed the rule of law, who are finally going to say that’s the last straw. So, I believe no matter who wins, there will be massive rioting and massive strife, and it could get to civil war. We could see that.”
In closing, Holter says, “The country has been hollowed out in every way possible. One of the biggest hollowing outs is the country has specifically, from a government and school standpoint, turned away from God. . . . If you live in a city, you are not going to make it—end of story. . . . Once you get derivatives cascading, it’s a 72-hour event, and no markets will open anywhere. When markets don’t open, that means there is no more credit. When there is no credit, the real economy stops.”
There is much more in the 46-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial writer and precious metals expert Bill Holter for 9.21.24.
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Marjayoun, near the Lebanon-Israel border, on September 23, 2024. The Israeli military on September 23 told people in Lebanon to move away from Hezbollah targets and vowed to carry out more ”extensive and precise” strikes against the Iran-back (credit: RABIH DAHER/AFP via Getty Images)
New: The White House has officially held its first cabinet meeting in over 11 months. Jill Biden sat at the head of the tablepic.twitter.com/Fw8m9K6Zya — The Calvin Coolidge Project (@TheCalvinCooli1) September 20, 2024 This …READ THE FULL REPORT
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