GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP$9.25 TO $2660.50

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.26 TO $31.79

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2663.25

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.25

Bitcoin morning price:$63,710 DOWN 221 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $63,366 DOWN 555 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing  UP $4.10TO $991.95

Palladium price; DOWN $20.55 TO $1041,60

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3585.55 UP 18,23 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,585.55CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//SEPT 25 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 1,996,53 UP 16,93 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///1996.53 RITISH POUNDS/OZ) SEPT 25/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,389,35 UP 14.14Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.389,35 EUROS PER OZ//SEPT 25//.2024)

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EXCHANGE: COMEX

ACCESS MARKET

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: SEPTEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,651.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 09/24/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 09/26/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 16
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 2
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 3
661 C JP MORGAN 6
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 4
905 C ADM 1

---

TOTAL: 19 19

JPMorgan stopped 6/.19

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 19 NOTICES FOR 1900 OZ  or  0.0590 TONNES

total notices so far: 4114 contracts for 411400 Oz (12.798 tonnes)

FOR  SEPT:

SILVER NOTICES: 27 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 135,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 5,060 for 25.300 million oz

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $9.25 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES INTO THE GLD//

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.12 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.26 AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 464,819MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 5720 CONTRACTS TO 150,071 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN OF $1.26 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 8045 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD AGAIN A ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS //. WE HAD ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE..  WE HAD A GIGANTIC 2325 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 1113 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUGE 8045 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 1113 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS.IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $1.26 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 8,045 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 2355 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 25.485MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT REMAINS AT 25.485 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1113 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 835 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT, ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 DAYS, total 19,719 contracts:   OR 98.585 MILLION OZ  (1159 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  98.585  MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 98.585 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF  5720 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS:1440 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR AUGUST OF  22.765 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 130,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES AT 25.385 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE GAIN OF 8045 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1113 CONTRACTS,//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX//ACCESS TRADING//// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT   (1113) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .

WE HAD  27 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 135,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 7920 OI CONTRACTS  TO 565,883 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 1183 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (7920 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $23.60 IN PRICE /TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY MONDAYS STRONG 1400 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  12.9455 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $23.60 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 16,624 OI CONTRACTS (51.707 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 8704 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 565,863

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEG HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,624 CONTRACTS  WITH 9,103 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 2325 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 16,624 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1475 CONTRACTS,

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8704 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 7,920 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 16,624 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT  12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1400 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 12.9455 TONNES. 

 / 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (DURING COMEX ACCESS) WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1475 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

SEPT.

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 92,176 CONTRACTS OF 9,217,600 OZ OR 286.70 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5422 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  286.70 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  286.70 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 8.07% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 286.70 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED  5720 CONTRACTS OI  TO 150,071 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 2325 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1440 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1440 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 5720 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2325 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 8045 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 40.225 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR  $1.26 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.18PTS OR 1.16%//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.54PTS OR 0.68%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 70.33PTS OR 0.19%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.15%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0269 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0274 Oil UP TO 72,24dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.62Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 7920 CONTRACTS TO 564,640 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.60WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (8704). THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION ON TUESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MINOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A MEGA HUGE SIZED 8704 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  OCT/DEC  8704 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 8704 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED TOTAL OF 16,624 CONTRACTS IN THAT 8704 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 7920 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $23.26 TUESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT A FAIR SIZED 1475 CONTRACTS. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON’S SMACKDOWN RIGHT AFTER THE COMEX CLOSED (DURING POWELL’S PRESSER)

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   SEPT  (12.9455 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 12.9455TONNES.

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY  $23.26/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MEGA  HUGE GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TUESDAY EVENING AFTER THE $2,600 PRICE LEVEL WAS PIERCED LAST FRIDAY.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 51.707 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.889 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TUESDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF A STRONG SIZED 1400 OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO: 12.9455TONNES.

NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 12.9455 TONNES 

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $23.65

WE HAVE REMOVED 1183 CONTRACTS  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 16,624 CONTRACTS OR 1,662,400 OZ (51.707

TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 239,695contracts FAIR

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

SEPT 25  SEPTEMBER  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE SEPT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	nil OZ
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	64,302.200 oz malca 2000 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	19 notice(s) 1900 OZ 0.01244TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	48 contracts    4800 OZ 0.1493 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	4114 notices 411,400oz 12.798 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

0 dealer deposits:

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 1 customer deposits

i) Into malca oz

total deposits 32,151.00oz (1000kilobars)

withdrawals: 0

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 000oz

adjustments:0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER

For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 67 contracts having GAINED 10 contracts. We had 4 notices filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED 14 contracts or 1400 oz will stand at the comex as these boys seek metal on THIS side of the pond.

OCTOBER LOST 4066 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 36,132 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER IS THE NEW FRONT MONTH FOR GOLD

NOVEMBER GAINED 165 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 947

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 7936 CONTRACTS TO 459,624

We had 19 contracts filed for today representing 1900 oz  

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 19 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 6 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (409,500 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  SEPT (67 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (19x 100 oz per contract( equals  416,200 OZ  OR 12.9455 ONNES.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (4114 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT  (67OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (19x 100 oz which equals  416,200 oz (12.9455 TONNES) 

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 12.9455TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,876.299.342 oz 58.360 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,017,301.380 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,503,027,266/// 233,37 tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,456.615.543 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,626908oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 175,02 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

SEPT 25  2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE SEPT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	804,974.388 OZ ASAHI CNT .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,196,471.007oz CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	27  CONTRACT(S)    (135,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	37 contracts  (0.185million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	5060 Contracts  (25.300 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 customer deposits:

i) Into CNT 1,196,471.007 oz

total customer deposits 1,196,471.007oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of ASAHI 594,018.900 oz

ii) Out of CNT 210,956.455 oz

total withdrawal 804,976,388 OZ

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/305.334million  or 44.27%

adjustment45 all dealer to customer

i) asahi 492,976.500 oz

ii) Brinks 2,176m868.500 o

iii) CNT 1,445,378.140 oz

iv) JPM 285,403.310 oz

v) Manfra 729,868.881 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.773MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305.338million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 64 CONTRACTS HAVING GAINED 16 CONTRACT(S). 

WE HAD 11 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY, SO WE GAINED 27 CONTRACTS OR 135,000 OZ

UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..

OCTOBER SAW A GAIN OF 14 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1351 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.

NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 143 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 320

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 4869 CONTRACTS UP TO 130,947 CONTRACTS

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 27 for 135,000oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 120,037 HUGE

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5060x 5,000 oz = 25.330MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(64)and the number of notices served upon today 27x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month:  5060 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (64 number of notices served upon today minus (27)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT  contract month equates to 25.485 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 25.485 million oz.

There are 70.773 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 875.39 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ

AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 464,819MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

end

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

50 years after ‘show audit,’ status of U.S. gold reserve remains in doubt

Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-09-23 22:28 Section: Daily Dispatches

10:32p ET Monday, September 23, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

The Sound Money Defense League’s policy assistant, Matthew Cortez, notes that today is the 50th anniversary of the U.S. Treasury Department’s public relations stunt at Fort Knox in Kentucky, wherein a few gold bars in one of the bullion depository’s 15 vault compartments were shown to members of Congress and some journalists. 

This did nothing to verify that the rest of the U.S. government’s 8,133 tonnes of gold reserves were still in the government’s possession. Nor did the stunt do anything to ascertain whether any of the U.S. gold reserve was encumbered by leases or swaps with foreign central banks or bullion banks.

Suspicion remains in order, since the secret March 1999 staff report to the board of the International Monetary Fund, obtained by GATA in 2012, confirmed that the IMF, the official compiler of international gold reserves, allows member central banks to avoid distinguishing gold in the vault from gold being leased or swap — precisely to help conceal official intervention in the gold market:

https://www.gata.org/node/12016

That is, the bigger question about the U.S. gold reserve may be not whether there is still metal in Fort Knox but rather how many entities have a claim to it — whether it is, to put it politely, oversubscribed.

Cortez’s reminder is headlined “50-Year Anniversary of the Notorious ‘Show Audit’ of Fort Knox Gold” and it’s posted at Money Metals Exchange’s internet site here:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/09/23/50-year-anniversary-of-the-notorious-show-audit-of-fort-knox-gold-003484

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

END

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: Groundswell builds for massive Chinese stimulus but today wasn’t real thing

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-09-24 22:07 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Tuesday, September 24, 2024

China urgently needs a stimulus of shock-and-awe proportions, backed by a deep cleansing of its broken banks along the lines of America’s “TARP” (Troubled Asset Relief Program) rescue in 2008. The latest package announced today falls far short.

The drumbeat for radical action is by now deafening. It dominated the weekend’s China Macroeconomy Forum in Hong Kong, where a chorus of influential voices called for a fiscal blast of up to $1.4 trillion to pull the country out of debt deflation and cosmic gloom.

Liu Shijin, a former rate-setter at the People’s Bank of China, said the government should issue special bonds worth 8% of GDP to boost social spending, pensions, and health care. And to convert the galactic glut of unsold flats into homes for the 180-million-strong army of migrant workers caught in the no-man’s land of the semi-feudal Hukou system.

Mao Zhenhua, co-director of the Renmin Institute of Economic Research, wants a similar package of $1.4 trillion — or 10 trillion yuan — proposing direct cash transfers to citizens akin to Covid cheques in the West.

The authorities have been dribbling out stimulus for months but it has been too half-hearted to arrest the slide into a Keynesian liquidity trap. Disappointing data over recent weeks have finally caused the dam to break. The PBOC cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 points today. There were targeted measures to prop up the crumbling housing market.

Raymond Yeung, China strategist at Australia’s ANZ bank, said the measures will inject a trillion yuan into the banking system but do not add up to a genuine bazooka. “We question whether today’s package can lift China from the deflationary spiral. Massive easing and a complete change in mindset are required,” he said. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/09/24/groundswell-building-for-massive-chinese-stimulus/

END

Gold suppression policy is blown, GATA’s Ed Steer tells talk radio’s Dave Janda

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-09-25 12:46 Section: Daily Dispatches

12:50p ET Wednesday, September 25, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Interviewed last week by talk radio host Dave Janda on WAAM-AM1600 in Ann Arbor, Michigan, GATA board member Ed Steer, publisher of Ed Steer’s Gold and Silver Digest letter, said the U.S. and international economies are in their most fragile condition ever, being supported only by frantic creation of money by governments and central banks.

Steer said the U.S. government has pursued a surreptitious policy of suppressing gold and commodity prices ever since repudiating the dollar’s formal link to gold in 1971.

He added that many governments and central banks are aware of this policy and aren’t playing along with it anymore and are buying gold on price dips.

Silver, Steer said, is in much shorter supply than gold and its price potential is much greater.

The interview is 25 minutes long and can be heard at Janda’s internet site here:

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:SUGAR

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.18PTS OR 1.16%//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.54PTS OR 0.68%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 70.33PTS OR 0.19%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.15%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0269 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.0274 Oil UP TO 72,24dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.62Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN

ONSHORE YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP TO 7.0269

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.0274

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 33.18 PTS OR 1.16%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED 128.54PTS OR 0.68%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 70.33 POINTS OR 0.19%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  100.21 EURO FALLS TO 1.1118 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.818 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.40…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.1720Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.503 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2,956

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWNTO 3.125

3j Gold at $2656.40 /Silver at: 31.88  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 15/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.65

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.40  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.818% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8488 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9499  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.766 UP 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.109 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.543UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.10…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.005 UP 4 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.959 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.789 DOWN 1 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Dip From 41st Record High Of 2024 As China Stimulus Euphoria Fades

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024 – 08:11 AM

US futures are weaker but off overnight lows, as euphoria over China’s latest monetary bazooka stimulus fizzles with Asian shares paring gains into the close (traders now await the far more important fiscal bazooka) and as attention turns to the deteriorating US economy. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.1% after the index finished with its 41st record closing high on Tuesday, while Nasdaq futures drop 0.2% with weakness in Semis as US-listed Chinese tech stocks fell in premarket trading. Bond yields are mixed, and the USD has a slight bid as the yen trades just off a 3-week low. Commodities are mostly lower as it appears there is muted follow-through to China’s stimulus-induced buying. Today’s macro focus is on New Home Sales, Fed speakers scheduled Kugler at 4pm followed by Chair Powell tomorrow (slated to make pre-recorded opening remarks at the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference Thursday at 9:20am with a text release expected) and the 2Y and 5Y bond auctions.

In premarket trading,Chinese stocks listed in the US were set to decline following a stimulus-driven rally. General Motors shares fell in premarket trading as did KB Home. Here are some of the biggest US movers today:

• General Motors shares fall 3.6% after Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas cut the car maker to underweight from equal-weight. Jonas made several rating changes in his auto coverage, including downgrading Ford, Rivian, Magna International, and Phinia, and upgrading the dealers including AutoNation.
• HP Enterprise shares rise as much as 2.5% after the IT firm was upgraded to overweight from equal-weight at Barclays amid signs of a recovery in enterprise servers.
• KB Home shares drop 6.4% after the homebuilder reported earnings per share and net orders for the third quarter that fell short of the average analyst estimate.
• Stitch Fix shares fall as much as 20% after the online retailer’s forecasts for 2025 net revenue and adjusted Ebitda from continuing operations fell short of the average analyst estimates.
• DoorDash was raised to overweight from sector weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets, which sees the delivery company “gaining ground in its core and emerging verticals.”

Traders are seeking fresh catalysts with growth concerns lingering after last week’s half-point Federal Reserve interest-rate cut. Wednesday’s policy moves from China failed to ripple beyond Asian markets and investors are looking to a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and price-growth data at the end of the week.

“We’ve been here before with China,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at Zurich Insurance Co. “Really potent fiscal as well as monetary policy is needed to change the direction of travel. So far that direction of travel has not changed.”

Meanwhile, China’s stocks rallied for a sixth day after the central bank lowered the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans by the most on record. That followed its wide-ranging stimulus package announced the day before. Iron ore climbed and gold hit another record earlier in the session.

Meanwhile, Europe’s Stoxx 600 index paused a two-day rally, with German software developer SAP SE dropping 4% on news that it and other companies are being probed by the US. Healthcare and personal-care subindexes were the best performers, while the automotive and tech subgroups lag. Stoxx 600 was little changed, slipping 0.1% to 519.25. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Valmet gains 11%, the most since June, after the Finnish pulp and energy equipment manufacturer said it got an order valued at over EU1b from Arauco for a complete pulp mill in Brazil
• Air France-KLM shares rise as much as 8.4%, the most since December, after JPMorgan double-upgrades the stock to overweight, predicting a pick-up in earnings momentum
• Rentokil stock rises as much as 5.1% as the pest controller says Brian Baldwin, head of research at activist Trian Fund Management, will join the board as a non-executive director
• Helvetia gains as much as 4.5%, to its highest since 2020, after J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with a recommendation of overweight, citing unappreciated future earnings potential
• Orion gains as much as 5.2% after Jefferies upgrades to buy and sets a Street-high target, based on a higher peak sales estimate for key drug Nubeqa, with peak sales seen as high as €1.3b
• CCC soars as much as 10% after the Polish footwear retailer’s final 2Q earnings surpassed the preliminary figures, and its strong 3Q trading update was seen as a positive signal for 2024
• SAP declines as much as 4.3% after federal court records showed the software maker is among companies being investigated by the US for potentially conspiring to overcharge government agencies.
• Truecaller shares fall as much as 9.4%, the most in a year, after KPCB Holdings Inc. and Peak XV Partners offered 15 million shares at an 8.4% discount versus Tuesday’s close
• Immofinanz shares fall as much as 15% and to their lowest since December after an unidentified holder offered 3.4 million shares in the Austrian real estate company; shares are down 4% YTD
• Melexis shares drop as much as 57% to hit a seven week low after Kepler Cheuvreux downgraded the semiconductor integrated circuit maker and slashed earnings estimates
• AXA shares drop as much as 2.2%, the most since early August, after CIC Market Solutions cut its recommendation on the insurance group to neutral from buy, seeing limited upside for the stock
• Rightmove shares drop as much as 1.6% after the UK online property portal rejected a third takeover proposal from REA Group, saying the £6.1b bid continues to undervalue the business

Europe’s darkening economic outlook has fueled bets the ECB will cut rates again next month, while economists at HSBC Holdings Plc predict policy makers will start cutting interest rates at every meeting between October and April. “The worry has been that all the economic data is looking quite shaky,” said Anwiti Bahuguna, global asset allocation CIO at Northern Trust  Asset Management, where the region’s stocks have been cut to market weight from overweight. “At the beginning of the year we did think we would see a nice uptick but it started to slow down way more than any of us anticipated,” she told Bloomberg TV.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were little changed after jumping earlier in the day, as a policy-driven rally in China started to lose momentum after skepticism kicked in. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index edged up only 0.1% after gaining as much as 1%. TSMC, BHG Group and Tencent were among the biggest boosts. The gauge was still set to gain for a fifth day and reached its highest level since Feb 2022. Benchmarks in Sri Lanka, mainland China and Taiwan rose the most, while other markets took a breather after gains in the previous session.

Investors are cautiously optimistic that the policy barrage announced Tuesday has put a floor under China’s stock slump, with expectations that more fiscal support will follow. The CSI 300 Index rose 1.5% at close after climbing as much as 3.4% on the day. The gauge remained 0.9% lower for the year. A slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy had been a major overhang for Asian stocks, and a meaningful recovery as a result of the policy support may help drive gains across the region.

“We believe the concerted effort should put a floor to market sentiment in the near term,” James Wang, head of China strategy at UBS Investment Bank Research, wrote in a note. “While the immediate measures would benefit A-share companies, we believe the regulator’s desire to improve company governance would benefit all MSCI China companies.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2% having reversed course after falling earlier to the lowest since January. The yen is the worst-performing major currency, falling 0.7% against the greenback. The Swiss franc is not far behind. The Swedish krona falls 0.3% after the Riksbank cut borrowing costs by a quarter point and raised the possibility of a bigger move in coming months.

In rates, treasuries edge lower, with yields higher by 2bp-3bp vs Tuesday’s close, following similar price action in core European rates during London morning. US 10-year yields around 3.76% are ~3bp cheaper on the day, keeping pace with bunds and gilts; 5s30s spread is flatter by around 1bp as 5-year sector underperforms ahead of the auction. An auction of new 5-year notes during US afternoon follows good demand for Tuesday’s 2-year note sale.  The $70b 5-year note auction at 1pm New York time, second of this week’s three coupon sales, has WI yield near 3.51%, about 14bp richer than last month’s, which tailed by 0.3bp

In commodities, oil prices are down ~0.3%, with WTI trading around $71 a barrel.

Looking at today’s US economic data calendar, we get Mortgage applications (up 11.0%, vs 14.2% last week) and August new home sales at 10am. Fed speakers scheduled include Kugler at 4pm; Chair Powell is slated to make pre-recorded opening remarks at the 10th annual US Treasury Market Conference Thursday at 9:20am with a text release expected

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 5,782.00
Brent Futures down 0.1% to $75.07/bbl
Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,657.41
US Dollar Index little changed at 100.41

Top Overnight News

• China doubled down on stimulus measures with the PBOC cutting its one-year interest rate by 30 bps, the most on record. Stocks extended gains and the offshore yuan strengthened past 7 per dollar for the first time since May 2023. BBG
• China test fires ICBM into the Pacific, its first such launch since the summer of 2021 and a show of force ahead of a Xi-Biden phone call expected in the coming weeks. FT  
• GIR on PBOC’s Easing: PBOC Governor Pan hinted at follow-through to lending and deposit rates, as well as the likelihood of another RRR cut in Q4. More important than the measures themselves is the signal that domestic weakness has become uncomfortable for top policymakers (which in turn suggests underlying activity could be missing the 5% growth target by significantly more than the official 4.7% yoy GDP growth figure implies). The key question now is whether policymakers will add meaningful fiscal support to the mix; government borrowing has picked up substantially since midyear, but spending has not. GIR
• Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said plans are underway to discuss a nuclear deal following a “positive” meeting with Emmanuel Macron. He earlier warned that Israeli attacks on Lebanon “cannot go unanswered.” BBG
• Eurozone wage growth is easing according to a new ECB study, news that could pave the way for continued monetary easing. RTRS
• White House is taking a hands-off approach to the East/Gulf Coast dock worker labor talks w/just days to go before a potential strike. RTRS
• US House Foreign Affairs Committee recommended contempt of Congress charges against Secretary of State Blinken, for failing to appear at a hearing regarding the Biden administration’s handling of the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.
• Swaps traders raised their wagers to about 75 bps of Fed easing by year-end — implying a half-point move at one of the two remaining meetings. Positioning figures show a sharp increase in open interest in two-year note futures and a marked uptick in bets in December futures linked to the SOFR. BBG
• AI is better at pricing currencies than humans, according to ING, which is using such a model for the time-consuming task. Bain predicted the global market for AI-related products will near $1 trillion by 2027. BBG
• Berkshire sold another 21.6M shares of BAC for ~$860MM, dropping its stake to ~814MM/10.5% (Berkshire may stop selling at ~700M shares). Barron’s

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly positive as Chinese markets continued to rally following the stimulus boost. ASX 200 was rangebound with strength in mining and materials offsetting the underperformance in financials and tech, while the latest monthly CPI data from Australia matched estimates and slowed to a 3-year low although core inflation remained above the 2%-3% target. Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and traded both sides of the 38,000 level with little fresh catalysts, while Services PPI data was firmer than expected but slowed from the prior month’s revised print. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied amid ongoing optimism following the stimulus announcements, while the PBoC also conducted an MLF operation with the rate cut by 30bps to 2.00% which it had flagged during Tuesday’s press briefing.

Top Asian news

• PBoC conducted a CNY 300bln 1-year MLF operation with the rate lowered to 2.00% from 2.30%.
• US hopes to discuss fentanyl with China at the APEC Summit in November.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.2%) are almost entirely in the red (ex-SMI), with indices taking a breather/giving back some of the hefty gains seen in the prior session. European sectors are mixed vs initially holding a negative bias at the open. Healthcare tops the index alongside Travel & Leisure; the latter benefiting from gains in Air France (+7%) following a double broker upgrade at JP Morgan. Tech lags, hampered by losses in SAP (-3.5%) amid a US probe. US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.1%) are modestly lower across the board, with slight underperformance in the NQ following on from the gains seen in the prior session.

Top European news

• ECB’s Villeroy says cannot allow France’s situation regarding deficit to last; must deal with debt problem as spread widens. Not realistic for France to bring deficit down below 3% level within a three-year timeframe.
• BoE’s Greene says it is appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing restrictiveness. Greene outlines three cases in the economy and subsequent risks. In the first case, the global shocks that drove up inflation continue to fade, and the persistence of inflationary pressures dissipates with a less restrictive stance of monetary policy than in other cases. In the second, a period of economic slack is required to bring inflation sustainably to target in the medium-term. In the third, structural changes in the economy that impact wage- and price-setting require monetary policy to remain tighter for longer. Says, like many others on the MPC, she does not fit squarely in any of these cases. However, at the moment, she places the greatest probability on being in the second case. Wage growth has also fallen but remains above what our suite of models can explain. Says that a lot of the latest decline in UK services inflation is in the more volatile components; cannot get the ticker tape out yet. Remains concerned about wage pass-through to inflation. May be seeing some impact from UK economic policy uncertainty, causing business to stay on the sidelines.
• Riksbank cuts its Rate by 25bps as expected to 3.25% (prev. 3.50%); policy rate may also be cut at two remaining meetings this year, with a 50bps cut possible at one of those meetings; rate expected to be cut at a clearly faster pace than before.
• HSBC now see the ECB cutting rates at every meeting, starting from October, according to Bloomberg

FX

• USD is firmer and attempting to recoup some lost ground vs. peers after the selling pressure seen in the wake of Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence data. DXY has climbed above the 100.50 level and is towards session highs.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD and continuing to eye a test of 1.12 after yesterday’s Consumer Confidence-led dollar weakness. EUR/USD has been as high as 1.1198 today. If 1.12 is breached, the YTD high rests just above at 1.1201.
• Cable has pulled back a touch after its recent run of gains which saw the pair trade on a 1.34 handle for the first time since March 2022. Comments from BoE’s Greene this morning have underlined the cautious stance being taken by the MPC relative to some of its peers within the G10 space; commentary which sparked little move in the GBP.
• JPY is on the backfoot vs. the USD and the laggard across the majors, trimming yesterday’s gains vs. the greenback. Fresh fundamentals have been lacking for Japan ahead of the LDP leadership race on Friday. For now, the pair is contained within its recent 140-145 trading band.
• AUD a touch softer vs. the USD following soft inflation metrics overnight which put Y/Y CPI within the RBA’s target band on a headline basis (core remains above the top end). AUD/USD Printed another YTD high overnight, breaching the 0.69 mark for the first time since Feb 2023.
• SEK saw some fleeting weakness vs. the EUR following the Riksbank’s decision to cut rates by 25bps (as expected) whilst signalling that the policy rate could be cut at two remaining meetings this year. Furthermore, the statement noted that a 50bps cut is possible at one of those two meetings.

Fixed Income

• USTs are flat/very slightly lower ahead of 5yr supply later today. Treasuries saw very modest pressure following a poor Gilt auction; a move more pronounced in Bunds/Gilts.
• Bunds are under modest pressure and held around Tuesday’s best at 135.01 for most of the morning, but took another leg lower after the the dire UK auction; Bunds fell to a 134.68 trough ahead of the German auction, which passed without issue.
• Gilts were flat and unreactive to commentary from BoE’s Greene who outlined her preference for a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness. Following the Gilt auction, which had a lower b/c and much wider tail, Gilt Dec’24 futures fell from 99.23 to 99.15 before extending to a 98.99 low.
• UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.00% 2031 Gilt: b/c 2.98x (prev. 3.29x), average yield 3.814% (prev. 4.074%), tail 1.6bps (prev. 1.9bps).
• Italy sells EUR 2.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.25-2.75bln 3.10% 2026 BTP Short Term & EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 1.50% 2029 & 2.40% 2039 BTPei Auctions.
• Germany sells EUR 2.424bln vs exp. EUR 3bln 2.40% 2030 Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 2.0% (prev. 2.25%) & retention 19.2% (prev. 17.6%)

Commodities

• Crude is slightly subdued following the gains seen in the prior session, spurred on by the Chinese stimulus efforts but was unable to benefit from the draws in private sector inventory data. Brent’Nov sits at the foot of a USD 74.73-75.35/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals hold a downward bias with losses of some 1% seen in spot silver and spot palladium, whilst spot gold trades sideways amid a lack of drivers but cushioned by the increasingly tense geopolitical landscape. XAU eked another fresh all-time-high overnight at USD 2,670.60/oz (vs low 2,651.41/oz).
• Base metals are marginally softer as they take a breather from yesterday’s surge. 3M LME copper trades closer to the bottom of a USD 9,755.50-9,924.00/t range.
• US Private Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude -4.3mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate -1.1mln (exp. -1.6mln), Gasoline -3.4mln (exp. -0.02mln), Cushing -0.0mln.
• NHC said a storm surge and hurricane warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida, while it added that Helene’s large size will likely cause an extensive area to be affected by the storm’s hazards.
• Kazakhstan’s energy ministry says Kashagan oil field (400k BPD) to suspend operations for 38 days for maintenance.
• NHC says Helene strengthening as the centre approaches the north-eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, new tropical storm watches and warnings for portions of the US.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• “Israeli strikes on Lebanon expanded to reach the Keserwan and Chouf areas in Mount Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said they have more strikes ready against Hezbollah, while he added that they must continue until they achieve their goal and ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern residents to their homes.
• Israel conducted a strike on Jiyyeh which is south of Lebanon’s capital Beirut, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
• Sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and its surrounding area, as well as in central Israel, while explosions were heard in the sky of Tel Aviv caused by the interception of rockets, according to Sky News Arabia. Furthermore, Israel’s military said after Tel Aviv sirens were activated a missile was detected crossing from Lebanon and was intercepted.
• Iran-backed Iraqi militia claimed responsibility for overnight drone attacks on Golan, according to Times of Israel.
• Hezbollah confirmed its senior commander Ibrahim Qubaisi was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, while it was separately reported that Hezbollah said it targeted Israel’s Atlit navy base south of Haifa with drones.
• Hezbollah urged Iran in recent days to launch an attack against Israel as fighting between the Lebanese militant group and the Israeli military dramatically escalated, but Iran has so far refrained, according to Axios.
• Lebanon’s Foreign Minister said US President Biden’s UN speech was not strong and not promising, while the official added that the US is the only country that can really make a difference in the Middle East, as well as noted that Lebanon itself cannot end the fighting and needs US help despite disappointments of the past.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the international community must immediately stop the violence and work to reach a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while he added Tehran is ready to work with parties to the 2015 Nuclear Act pact to resolve the standoff and is ready to improve ties with the world.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian met with French President Macron in what is described as a good meeting in which they discussed Gaza and a nuclear deal. Iran’s President said he expects a group of countries to meet on the nuclear deal, while Macron warned Iran’s President about Tehran’s continued support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• IAEA chief Grossi said he sees a willingness from Iranian officials to re-engage in a more meaningful way, while he will visit Tehran in the coming weeks and is aiming for October. Grossi said Iran is continuing the development of its nuclear programme at a regular pace and any future nuclear talks will be different from the 2015 nuclear deal with a bigger role for the IAEA expected. Furthermore, he noted the need to start preparing now for possible future negotiations between the West and Iran.
• Iran is brokering secret talks to send Russian anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthis, according to Reuters citing sources. The report noted that experts said this would increase the Houthis to strike Red Sea commercial shipping and raise the threat to US and allied warships, while experts also stated that Houthis could use the missiles on land to threaten Saudi Arabia.
• “Israel Broadcasting Corporation: Israeli preparations for a possible ground operation in Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli Military says a drone crossing into Israeli territory from Syria was intercepted by IDF fighter jets south of the Sea of Galilee.

Geopolitics: Other

• China’s PLA rocket force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with a simulated warhead in international waters in the Pacific Ocean with the launch said to be routine and part of the rocket force’s annual training, according to Xinhua. China notified relevant countries ahead of the missile launch, while China’s Defence Ministry said the launch was not directed at any country or target and was in line with international laws and practices.
• Former US President Trump was briefed by US intelligence officials regarding threats from Iran to assassinate him, according to his campaign.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 14.2%
• 10:00: Aug. New Home Sales MoM, est. -5.3%, prior 10.6%
• 10:00: Aug. New Home Sales, est. 700,000, prior 739,000

Central Bank Speakers

• 16:00: Fed’s Kugler Speaks on Eco Outlook at Harvard Kennedy School

Government agenda

• 9:30 a.m. ET: Antony Blinken meets with Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council Member States in New York City ~
• 11:15 a.m. ET: Joe Biden joins ABC’s “The View” for a live interview in New York
• 11:30 a.m. ET: Antony Blinken participates in a G20 Foreign Ministers Meeting
• 1:15 p.m. ET: Antony Blinken hosts a multilateral meeting on building on progress to restore security in Haiti
• 2:00 p.m. ET: Joe Biden hosts a bilateral meeting with General Secretary Tô Lâm of Vietnam
• 3:15 p.m. ET.: Kamala Harris will deliver remarks at a campaign event in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
• 3:30 p.m. ET: Joe Biden hosts an event with world leaders launching a Joint Declaration of Support for Ukrainian Recovery and Reconstruction
• 4:30 p.m. ET: Antony Blinken participates in a ministerial on Sudan
• Janet Yellen will travel to New York, New York for private meetings and events on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).
• USTR Ambassador Katherine Tai will meet with Germany’s State Secretary Jörg Kukies

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Paris where the last time I was here 7 weeks ago I was trying to get away from Mickey Mouse giving me a hug on the hottest day of the year. This time a hug from Mickey would have warmed me up on a cold wet evening last night.
Markets are more adhering to a Disney script at the moment and have continued to push higher over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (+0.25%) inching up to its 41st record high this year, even as weak US data hit risk appetite and investors dialled up the chances of more aggressive rate cuts. However it was a difficult day for a one-size-fits all narrative, with a fairly divergent performance across different asset classes. To be fair there was plenty of good news, and China-exposed stocks did very well globally after their initial stimulus announcement just over 24 hours ago. This has carried on overnight with the PBoC cutting the medium-term lending facility from 2.3% to 2%, the largest cut since they started using the tool to guide policy in 2016. Chinese equities are again outperforming this morning. Meanwhile gold prices (+1.08%) have hit another all-time high of $2,657/oz as more US rate cuts are priced in. But the weak US numbers prevented a more aggressive advance in US equities as they played on lingering fears about a potential downturn given the jobs numbers over recent months.

In terms of that US data, the main point of concern was the Conference Board’s consumer confidence print for September, where the headline reading slipped back to 98.7 (vs. 104.0 expected), and the monthly decline of -6.9pts was also the largest in just over three years. And if that wasn’t enough, the much-followed differential between those saying jobs are plentiful versus hard to get fell back to 12.6, which is the narrowest it’s been since March 2021. At the same time, we also had the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index for September, which fell to its weakest level since May 2020 at -21 (vs. -12 expected).

Those releases saw investors dial up the chance that the Fed would deliver another 50bp rate cut at their next meeting in November, and futures raised the probability from 54% to 62% on the day. And in turn, that led to a fresh steepening of the yield curve, with the 2yr yield (-4.9bps) closing at a fresh two-year low of 3.54%, whilst the 10yr yield (-2.1bps) saw a smaller decline to 3.73%. That meant the 2s10s was up to 18.4bps by the close, which is the steepest it’s been since June 2022, just before it became apparent that the Fed would start hiking rates by 75bps.

That data weakness was also apparent in Europe yesterday, as the Ifo’s business climate indicator from Germany fell by more than expected in September, coming in at 85.4 (vs. 86.0 expected). That’s the weakest in 8 months, and the news contributed to a similar curve steepening in Germany, with the 2s10s curve (+4.3bps) up to 4.8bps by the close, which is the steepest since November 2022. The move happened as investors similarly raised their expectations for ECB cuts, with a growing probability priced in that they’ll accelerate the pace and start moving at every meeting rather than every other meeting. Indeed, the likelihood of an October cut has now risen from 26% on Friday, to 41% on Monday after the flash PMIs, to 63% by yesterday’s close, so there’s been a decent reassessment of the outlook. This came as we heard some mixed comments from the ECB’s Nagel who suggested that some factors weighing on growth are likely to be “temporary”, though Germany’s growth outlook “remains weak this year”. This backdrop led to a fresh rally among European sovereigns, with yields on 10yr bunds (-0.9bps), OATs (-2.2bps) and BTPs (-2.9bps) all moving lower.

While investors were concerned about the weak economic data, it wasn’t all bad news yesterday. In fact, China-exposed stocks did very well in the US and Europe after the stimulus announcement yesterday. For instance, the CAC 40 (+1.28%) was the biggest outperformer among the main European indices as it contains several luxury goods firms. The DAX (+0.80%) also put in a strong performance, lifted by automakers like BMW (+3.55%) given their exposure to Chinese markets. Meanwhile in the US, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (+9.13%) had its best daily performance since November 2022. That index is made up of companies which are traded in the US, but where a majority of business is done in China.

For equities more broadly, it was a fairly mixed performance, but ultimately the S&P 500 (+0.25%) still managed to reach another all-time high. Significantly, it also meant that the index is now up +20% on a YTD basis for the first time this year, and if it can maintain that into year end, it would be the first time that it recorded two back-to-back annual gains above +20% since 1997-98. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (+1.31%) was a significant outperformer, aided by a +3.97% gain for Nvidia. But there were also points of weakness, with 49% of the S&P 500 constituents lower on the day, as financials (-0.92%) and utilities (-0.76%) underperformed. Over in Europe, the gains were relatively strong, with the STOXX 600 (+0.65%) posting another advance.

Asian equity markets are largely continuing their upward trend this morning with Chinese markets notching outsized gains on the back of the MLF rate cut we mentioned at the top. This is the second cut to the MLF in recent months following a reduction to 2.3% in late July. As I check my screens, the CSI (+2.19%) is leading gains across the region having initially risen as much as +3.2% with the Hang Seng (+1.97%) and the Shanghai Composite (+1.74%) also among the top performers. Meanwhile, the Nikkei (+0.34%) is holding on to its gains with the KOPSI (+0.02%) swinging between gains and losses. Elsewhere, the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.08%) is also struggling to gain traction. S&P 500 (-0.16%) and NASDAQ (-0.23%) futures are edging lower.

Turning our attention back to Australia, consumer price inflation slowed to a three-year low of 2.7% y/y in August, down from a +3.5% gain in July, but aligning with market forecasts. Core CPI inflation remains elevated and above the RBA’s target range but did also ease. The trimmed mean inflation rate slowed to an annual 3.4%, from 3.8% in July.

In FX, the offshore yuan briefly hit its strongest level in over 16 months this morning, strengthening to 6.9951 before settling to trade at 7.0107 against the dollar.

To the day ahead, and data releases include French consumer confidence for September, along with US new home sales for August. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the BoE’s Greene and the Fed’s Kugler.

2B) European report

JPY lags, fixed lower after a soft UK tap, US supply & Kugler due – Newsquawk US Market Open

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 04:50 AM

• Equity futures are generally modestly lower, giving back some of the prior day’s gains
• G10s are flat/lower against the Dollar to varying degrees, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY up to a 144.25 peak
• USTs are essentially flat, Gilts dip lower following a weak auction which also weighed on Bunds
• Crude is modestly lower, XAU is flat and base metals take a breather from the China stimulus-related gains on Tuesday
• Looking ahead, Highlights include US Building Permits, CNB Policy Announcement, Speakers including Fed’s Kugler, Supply from the US, Earnings from Micron.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.2%) are almost entirely in the red (ex-SMI), with indices taking a breather/giving back some of the hefty gains seen in the prior session.
• European sectors are mixed vs initially holding a negative bias at the open. Healthcare tops the index alongside Travel & Leisure; the latter benefiting from gains in Air France (+7%) following a double broker upgrade at JP Morgan. Tech lags, hampered by losses in SAP (-3.5%) amid a US probe.
• US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%, RTY -0.1%) are modestly lower across the board, with slight underperformance in the NQ following on from the gains seen in the prior session.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is firmer and attempting to recoup some lost ground vs. peers after the selling pressure seen in the wake of Tuesday’s US Consumer Confidence data. DXY has climbed above the 100.50 level and is towards session highs.
• EUR is flat vs. the USD and continuing to eye a test of 1.12 after yesterday’s Consumer Confidence-led dollar weakness. EUR/USD has been as high as 1.1198 today. If 1.12 is breached, the YTD high rests just above at 1.1201.
• Cable has pulled back a touch after its recent run of gains which saw the pair trade on a 1.34 handle for the first time since March 2022. Comments from BoE’s Greene this morning have underlined the cautious stance being taken by the MPC relative to some of its peers within the G10 space; commentary which sparked little move in the GBP.
• JPY is on the backfoot vs. the USD and the laggard across the majors, trimming yesterday’s gains vs. the greenback. Fresh fundamentals have been lacking for Japan ahead of the LDP leadership race on Friday. For now, the pair is contained within its recent 140-145 trading band.
• AUD a touch softer vs. the USD following soft inflation metrics overnight which put Y/Y CPI within the RBA’s target band on a headline basis (core remains above the top end). AUD/USD Printed another YTD high overnight, breaching the 0.69 mark for the first time since Feb 2023.
• SEK saw some fleeting weakness vs. the EUR following the Riksbank’s decision to cut rates by 25bps (as expected) whilst signalling that the policy rate could be cut at two remaining meetings this year. Furthermore, the statement noted that a 50bps cut is possible at one of those two meetings.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are flat/very slightly lower ahead of 5yr supply later today. Treasuries saw very modest pressure following a poor Gilt auction; a move more pronounced in Bunds/Gilts.
• Bunds are under modest pressure and held around Tuesday’s best at 135.01 for most of the morning, but took another leg lower after the the dire UK auction; Bunds fell to a 134.68 trough ahead of the German auction, which passed without issue.
• Gilts were flat and unreactive to commentary from BoE’s Greene who outlined her preference for a gradual approach to removing policy restrictiveness. Following the Gilt auction, which had a lower b/c and much wider tail, Gilt Dec’24 futures fell from 99.23 to 99.15 before extending to a 98.99 low.
• UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.00% 2031 Gilt: b/c 2.98x (prev. 3.29x), average yield 3.814% (prev. 4.074%), tail 1.6bps (prev. 1.9bps).
• Italy sells EUR 2.75bln vs exp. EUR 2.25-2.75bln 3.10% 2026 BTP Short Term & EUR 2.5bln vs exp. EUR 2-2.5bln 1.50% 2029 & 2.40% 2039 BTPei Auctions.
• Germany sells EUR 2.424bln vs exp. EUR 3bln 2.40% 2030 Bund: b/c 2.4x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 2.0% (prev. 2.25%) & retention 19.2% (prev. 17.6%)
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is slightly subdued following the gains seen in the prior session, spurred on by the Chinese stimulus efforts but was unable to benefit from the draws in private sector inventory data. Brent’Nov sits at the foot of a USD 74.73-75.35/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals hold a downward bias with losses of some 1% seen in spot silver and spot palladium, whilst spot gold trades sideways amid a lack of drivers but cushioned by the increasingly tense geopolitical landscape. XAU eked another fresh all-time-high overnight at USD 2,670.60/oz (vs low 2,651.41/oz).
• Base metals are marginally softer as they take a breather from yesterday’s surge. 3M LME copper trades closer to the bottom of a USD 9,755.50-9,924.00/t range.
• US Private Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude -4.3mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate -1.1mln (exp. -1.6mln), Gasoline -3.4mln (exp. -0.02mln), Cushing -0.0mln.
• NHC said a storm surge and hurricane warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida, while it added that Helene’s large size will likely cause an extensive area to be affected by the storm’s hazards.
• Kazakhstan’s energy ministry says Kashagan oil field (400k BPD) to suspend operations for 38 days for maintenance.
• NHC says Helene strengthening as the centre approaches the north-eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, new tropical storm watches and warnings for portions of the US.
• OECD World Economic Outlook: 2024 World growth upgraded by 0.1ppt, EZ, US, China unchanged vs prior; 2025 World forecast unchanged, EZ and US downgraded by 0.2ppt, China unchanged. Click for details
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• French Consumer Confidence (Sep) 95.0 vs. Exp. 92.0 (Prev. 92.0, Rev. 93)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB’s Villeroy says cannot allow France’s situation regarding deficit to last; must deal with debt problem as spread widens. Not realistic for France to bring deficit down below 3% level within a three-year timeframe.
• BoE’s Greene says it is appropriate to take a gradual approach to removing restrictiveness. Greene outlines three cases in the economy and subsequent risks. In the first case, the global shocks that drove up inflation continue to fade, and the persistence of inflationary pressures dissipates with a less restrictive stance of monetary policy than in other cases. In the second, a period of economic slack is required to bring inflation sustainably to target in the medium-term. In the third, structural changes in the economy that impact wage- and price-setting require monetary policy to remain tighter for longer. Says, like many others on the MPC, she does not fit squarely in any of these cases. However, at the moment, she places the greatest probability on being in the second case. Wage growth has also fallen but remains above what our suite of models can explain. Says that a lot of the latest decline in UK services inflation is in the more volatile components; cannot get the ticker tape out yet. Remains concerned about wage pass-through to inflation. May be seeing some impact from UK economic policy uncertainty, causing business to stay on the sidelines.
• Riksbank cuts its Rate by 25bps as expected to 3.25% (prev. 3.50%); policy rate may also be cut at two remaining meetings this year, with a 50bps cut possible at one of those meetings; rate expected to be cut at a clearly faster pace than before. Click for more details.
• HSBC now see the ECB cutting rates at every meeting, starting from October, according to Bloomberg

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US House Foreign Affairs Committee recommended contempt of Congress charges against Secretary of State Blinken, for failing to appear at a hearing regarding the Biden administration’s handling of the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• “Israeli strikes on Lebanon expanded to reach the Keserwan and Chouf areas in Mount Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said they have more strikes ready against Hezbollah, while he added that they must continue until they achieve their goal and ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern residents to their homes.
• Israel conducted a strike on Jiyyeh which is south of Lebanon’s capital Beirut, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
• Sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and its surrounding area, as well as in central Israel, while explosions were heard in the sky of Tel Aviv caused by the interception of rockets, according to Sky News Arabia. Furthermore, Israel’s military said after Tel Aviv sirens were activated a missile was detected crossing from Lebanon and was intercepted.
• Iran-backed Iraqi militia claimed responsibility for overnight drone attacks on Golan, according to Times of Israel.
• Hezbollah confirmed its senior commander Ibrahim Qubaisi was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, while it was separately reported that Hezbollah said it targeted Israel’s Atlit navy base south of Haifa with drones.
• Hezbollah urged Iran in recent days to launch an attack against Israel as fighting between the Lebanese militant group and the Israeli military dramatically escalated, but Iran has so far refrained, according to Axios.
• Lebanon’s Foreign Minister said US President Biden’s UN speech was not strong and not promising, while the official added that the US is the only country that can really make a difference in the Middle East, as well as noted that Lebanon itself cannot end the fighting and needs US help despite disappointments of the past.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the international community must immediately stop the violence and work to reach a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while he added Tehran is ready to work with parties to the 2015 Nuclear Act pact to resolve the standoff and is ready to improve ties with the world.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian met with French President Macron in what is described as a good meeting in which they discussed Gaza and a nuclear deal. Iran’s President said he expects a group of countries to meet on the nuclear deal, while Macron warned Iran’s President about Tehran’s continued support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• IAEA chief Grossi said he sees a willingness from Iranian officials to re-engage in a more meaningful way, while he will visit Tehran in the coming weeks and is aiming for October. Grossi said Iran is continuing the development of its nuclear programme at a regular pace and any future nuclear talks will be different from the 2015 nuclear deal with a bigger role for the IAEA expected. Furthermore, he noted the need to start preparing now for possible future negotiations between the West and Iran.
• Iran is brokering secret talks to send Russian anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthis, according to Reuters citing sources. The report noted that experts said this would increase the Houthis to strike Red Sea commercial shipping and raise the threat to US and allied warships, while experts also stated that Houthis could use the missiles on land to threaten Saudi Arabia.
• “Israel Broadcasting Corporation: Israeli preparations for a possible ground operation in Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli Military says a drone crossing into Israeli territory from Syria was intercepted by IDF fighter jets south of the Sea of Galilee.

OTHER

• China’s PLA rocket force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with a simulated warhead in international waters in the Pacific Ocean with the launch said to be routine and part of the rocket force’s annual training, according to Xinhua. China notified relevant countries ahead of the missile launch, while China’s Defence Ministry said the launch was not directed at any country or target and was in line with international laws and practices.
• Former US President Trump was briefed by US intelligence officials regarding threats from Iran to assassinate him, according to his campaign.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is slightly softer and holds just beneath USD 64k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as Chinese markets continued to rally following the stimulus boost.
• ASX 200 was rangebound with strength in mining and materials offsetting the underperformance in financials and tech, while the latest monthly CPI data from Australia matched estimates and slowed to a 3-year low although core inflation remained above the 2%-3% target.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and traded both sides of the 38,000 level with little fresh catalysts, while Services PPI data was firmer than expected but slowed from the prior month’s revised print.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied amid ongoing optimism following the stimulus announcements, while the PBoC also conducted an MLF operation with the rate cut by 30bps to 2.00% which it had flagged during Tuesday’s press briefing.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC conducted a CNY 300bln 1-year MLF operation with the rate lowered to 2.00% from 2.30%.
• US hopes to discuss fentanyl with China at the APEC Summit in November.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Services PPI (Aug) 2.70% vs. Exp. 2.60% (Prev. 2.80%)
• Australian Weighted CPI YY (Aug) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 3.5%)
• Australian Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Aug) 3.40% (Prev. 3.80%)

2C ASIAN REPORT.

APAC stocks positive as China rallies following stimulus boost – Newsquawk Euro Market Open

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 01:06 AM

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as Chinese markets continued to rally following the stimulus boost.
• Australian monthly CPI matched estimates and slowed to a 3-year low, although core inflation remained above the 2%-3% target.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 1.1% on Tuesday.
• USD is broadly flat vs. peers, EUR/USD is eyeing 1.12 to the upside, Cable has pulled back onto a 1.34 handle.
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said they have more strikes ready against Hezbollah; added they must continue until they achieve their goal.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits, Riksbank & CNB Policy Announcements, Speakers including BoE’s Greene, Riksbank’s Thedeen & Fed’s Kugler, Supply from UK, Italy, Germany & US.

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks ultimately finished with mild gains after reversing the early downside that was spurred by disappointing US Consumer Confidence data, while the sectors were mixed with outperformance in materials following China’s recent stimulus efforts and financials lagged with Visa pressured as it faces a DoJ antitrust suit. The data release also saw Treasuries reverse their initial risk-on losses and triggered selling in the dollar.
• SPX +0.25% at 5,733, NDX +0.47% at 19,945, DJIA +0.20% at 42,208, RUT +0.17% at 2,224
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US House Foreign Affairs Committee recommended contempt of Congress charges against Secretary of State Blinken, for failing to appear at a hearing regarding the Biden administration’s handling of the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly positive as Chinese markets continued to rally following the stimulus boost.
• ASX 200 was rangebound with strength in mining and materials offsetting the underperformance in financials and tech, while the latest monthly CPI data from Australia matched estimates and slowed to a 3-year low although core inflation remained above the 2%-3% target.
• Nikkei 225 swung between gains and losses and traded both sides of the 38,000 level with little fresh catalysts, while Services PPI data was firmer than expected but slowed from the prior month’s revised print.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp rallied amid ongoing optimism following the stimulus announcements, while the PBoC also conducted an MLF operation with the rate cut by 30bps to 2.00% which it had flagged during Tuesday’s press briefing.
• US equity futures (ES -0.1%) marginally softened after the prior day’s choppy mood and with little in the way of key risk events scheduled today.
• European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed up by 1.1% on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY saw some respite from the prior day’s selling pressure that was triggered by weak US Consumer Confidence.
• EUR/USD held on to recent spoils and edged closer towards the 1.1200 territory following the dollar’s recent demise.
• GBP/USD sat near its best levels in around two and a half years after returning to 1.3400 territory.
• USD/JPY marginally rebounded after yesterday’s whipsawing and brief dip beneath the 143.00 level.
• Antipodeans took a breather after climbing yesterday alongside commodity gains and Chinese stimulus.
• BoC Governor Macklem said with the continued progress they have seen on inflation, it is reasonable to expect further rate cuts.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures traded rangebound near the prior day’s best levels after rebounding due to weak US Consumer Confidence data.
• Bund futures were contained after recently hitting resistance around the 135.00 level and with a Bund issuance scheduled later.
• 10yr JGB futures were indecisive and tested support near 145.00 following somewhat ambiguous Services PPI data.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were lacklustre after yesterday’s fluctuations and failed to benefit from the draws in private sector inventory data.
• US Private Energy Inventory (bbls): Crude -4.3mln (exp. -1.4mln), Distillate -1.1mln (exp. -1.6mln), Gasoline -3.4mln (exp. -0.02mln), Cushing -0.0mln.
• BSEE reported that 16% of oil production and 11% of gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico is shut in response to tropical storm Helene. It was separately reported that theNHC said a storm surge and hurricane warnings were issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida, while it added that Helene’s large size will likely cause an extensive area to be affected by the storm’s hazards.
• Shell (SHEL LN) is monitoring tropical storm Helene for potential impacts to its assets and operations in the Gulf of Mexico and noted with a shift in the forecast track of the storm, they are beginning the process of restoring production at their Stones platform. Co. added that production at Appomattox continues to be curtailed and a completed removal of non-essential personnel from Appomattox as well as assets in the Mars corridor, have safely paused some of their drilling operations, while there are currently no other impacts on their production across the Gulf of Mexico.
• OPEC’s 2024 World Oil Outlook stated that global primary energy demand is to increase by 24% to 2050, driven by the non-OECD, with the numbers suggesting it will lift from 301 mboe/d in 2023 to 374 mboe/d in 2050.
• Spot gold mildly extended on fresh record levels again in the aftermath of the recent dollar weakness.
• Copper futures remained underpinned amid the continued China stimulus euphoria.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was indecisive and eked mild gains around the USD 64,500 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC conducted a CNY 300bln 1-year MLF operation with the rate lowered to 2.00% from 2.30%.
• US hopes to discuss fentanyl with China at the APEC Summit in November.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Services PPI (Aug) 2.70% vs. Exp. 2.60% (Prev. 2.80%)
• Australian Weighted CPI YY (Aug) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 3.5%)
• Australian Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Aug) 3.40% (Prev. 3.80%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said they have more strikes ready against Hezbollah, while he added that they must continue until they achieve their goal and ensure the safe return of Israel’s northern residents to their homes.
• Israel conducted a strike on Jiyyeh which is south of Lebanon’s capital Beirut, according to security sources cited by Reuters.
• Sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and its surrounding area, as well as in central Israel, while explosions were heard in the sky of Tel Aviv caused by the interception of rockets, according to Sky News Arabia. Furthermore, Israel’s military said after Tel Aviv sirens were activated a missile was detected crossing from Lebanon and was intercepted.
• Iran-backed Iraqi militia claimed responsibility for overnight drone attacks on Golan, according to Times of Israel.
• Hezbollah confirmed its senior commander Ibrahim Qubaisi was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut, while it was separately reported that Hezbollah said it targeted Israel’s Atlit navy base south of Haifa with drones.
• Hezbollah urged Iran in recent days to launch an attack against Israel as fighting between the Lebanese militant group and the Israeli military dramatically escalated, but Iran has so far refrained, according to Axios.
• Lebanon’s Foreign Minister said US President Biden’s UN speech was not strong and not promising, while the official added that the US is the only country that can really make a difference in the Middle East, as well as noted that Lebanon itself cannot end the fighting and needs US help despite disappointments of the past.
• Syrian air defences confronted suspected Israeli missiles that were launched towards targets in the port city of Tartous, according to Reuters sources citing the Syrian Army.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian said the international community must immediately stop the violence and work to reach a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, while he added Tehran is ready to work with parties to the 2015 Nuclear Act pact to resolve the standoff and is ready to improve ties with the world.
• Iran’s President Pezeshkian met with French President Macron in what is described as a good meeting in which they discussed Gaza and a nuclear deal. Iran’s President said he expects a group of countries to meet on the nuclear deal, while Macron warned Iran’s President about Tehran’s continued support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
• IAEA chief Grossi said he sees a willingness from Iranian officials to re-engage in a more meaningful way, while he will visit Tehran in the coming weeks and is aiming for October. Grossi said Iran is continuing the development of its nuclear programme at a regular pace and any future nuclear talks will be different from the 2015 nuclear deal with a bigger role for the IAEA expected. Furthermore, he noted the need to start preparing now for possible future negotiations between the West and Iran.
• Iran is brokering secret talks to send Russian anti-ship missiles to Yemen’s Houthis, according to Reuters citing sources. The report noted that experts said this would increase the Houthis to strike Red Sea commercial shipping and raise the threat to US and allied warships, while experts also stated that Houthis could use the missiles on land to threaten Saudi Arabia.

OTHER

• China’s PLA rocket force successfully launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with a simulated warhead in international waters in the Pacific Ocean with the launch said to be routine and part of the rocket force’s annual training, according to Xinhua. China notified relevant countries ahead of the missile launch, while China’s Defence Ministry said the launch was not directed at any country or target and was in line with international laws and practices.
• Former US President Trump was briefed by US intelligence officials regarding threats from Iran to assassinate him, according to his campaign.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB’s Knot said the ECB is likely to continue to gradually reduce interest rates at least through the first half of 2025 but noted that rates are unlikely to return to extremely low levels and will likely end up between 2-3%.
• ECB’s Nagel said they assume the German economy will slowly pick up some momentum again and what is certain is that some of these factors holding it back such as weakening growth in Germany, are only temporary. Nagel stated that the main factors behind Germany’s weak growth in recent years were the energy crisis, weak foreign demand and high inflation, while he added that tight monetary policy is dampening the economy.

2 JAPAN

JAPAN/

END

3 CHINA

More stimulus on day ii yet most waiting for a firehose

(zerohedge)

China Reloads Monetary Bazooka With Record Cut To One-Year Policy Rate, But Everyone Waiting For Fiscal Firehose

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 01:05 PM

China is not done stimulating.

One day after the PBOC shocked markets with a monetary bazooka that included multiple rate cuts, house market supports and most notably, a remarkable RMB800 billion pledge to prop up the country’s flailing stock market (the Chinese Put has moved out of the “National Team” basement)…

… China was at it again, and on Tuesday, lowered the interest rate charged on its one-year policy loans by the most on record, expanding on its sweeping program to revive confidence in the world’s second-largest economy (which already appears to be fading).

The PBOC cut the rate of the medium-term lending facility to 2% from 2.3%; the 30-basis-point cut was the biggest since the bank began using the monetary tool to guide market interest rates in 2016.

The expected move followed central bank Governor Pan Gongsheng’s announcement the previous day of a broad stimulus package that amounted to an adrenaline shot for an economy on the cusp of a deflationary spiral.

“The cut is part of the package,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist for Greater China at Jones Lang LaSalle, quoted by Bloomberg. “The market is keeping a close eye on the strength, frequency and synergy of measures to follow as China strives to achieve this year’s around 5% growth goal.”

The latest stimulus frenzy helped rally the yuan past the 7 per dollar milestone for the first time in 16 months. Chinese stocks extended their gains, with the onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index on track to wipe out all of its losses for 2024. The yield on China’s 10-year bonds fell 1 basis point to 2.05%, after reaching a record low of 2.00% the day before.

The cut to the MLF rate is a prelude to more significant measures such as a promised reduction in the rate on seven-day reverse repurchase notes, which the PBOC increasingly favors as the main policy lever. The rate on those instruments will be lowered by 20 basis points to 1.5% “soon,” Pan said Tuesday.

In reflection of the new framework, the PBOC drained a net 291 billion yuan ($41.4 billion) via the MLF, the biggest drainage since December 2021. The outstanding MLF loans are widely expected to be gradually replaced by other tools, including cash injections through reserve requirement ratio cuts, as the PBOC seeks to influence market borrowing costs more effectively.

“The MLF may be downgraded to become a tool to adjust the marginal borrowing costs of banks,” said Zhaopeng Xing, senior strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “The MLF rate in the future could change following movements in market rates.”

One day earlier, the central bank chief revealed a plan to unleash 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity with a 50-basis-point reduction of the RRR, which determines the amount of cash lenders must keep in reserve. Along with other new funding tools, the measures more than compensated for the effect of the net withdrawal on market liquidity.

“Looking ahead, there is room for further replacement of MLF liquidity with RRR cut-induced liquidity given heavy MLF maturity in the coming months,” said OCBC strategist Frances Cheung. The rate cut on the one-year lending Wednesday “renders the facility more aligned with the funding costs” in the interbank market, she added.

So after this barrage of monetary easing by China, what does the market think? In short: “we’ve been here before.“

While China has repeatedly engaged in monetary stimulation in the past, what analysts say needs to happen for this rally to be sustainable and more than just a tactical bounce, is a boost of consumer demand, i.e., fiscal stimulus, i.e., a flood of new debt to give China’s middle class some extra take home money.

Overnight China the focus again enjoying another day in the sun albeit with headline price action softer than the move we saw yesterday. Elsewhere however Asian markets outside of China and futures are pointing lower.

As Goldman’s Lauren Rose writes, “after a wave of coordinated policy measures were announced in China yesterday the euphoria of price action did not quite match up to flows. Regionally the desk saw both LOs and HFs chase the move although noting that whilst market turnover remains strong today, the cadence of tickets has dropped off and now more passive in style. However in Europe and the US follow through was much more limited. Here in Europe there was an initial wave of both LO and HF demand for China proxies (Luxury and Miners), this dropped off into the afternoon session despite EU Miners basket closing up ~ 3 s.d. and Luxury and China Exposure baskets closing in more than 2 s.d. moves. Outside of single stocks the bulk of more constructive flow was in the options space with call buying evident. In the US flow was concentrated in ETFs where the desk saw buying in China levered products but whilst the cover bid was evident, LOs used the rally to trim.”

Ultimately this indicates a lack of conviction that this move higher can be sustained, according to the Goldman trader, who notes that “for this to be seen as an inflection point would need the reassurance likely of demand side stimulus and some stabilization in the data for September (after very weak August datapoints).”

Whilst the story in China is very specific, the lack of appetite to engage does feel emblematic of the sentiment across global equities right now. The macro focus has shifted from inflation to growth and yesterday’s US data was not helpful in this regards with a miss on Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed factory index where composition was weaker (particularly in regards to employment and shipments). As the Goldman trader further notes, when looking at the micro, the 4% rally in Nvidia on pretty benign newsflow (report that CEO Jensen is no longer selling stock) is an example of the sensitivity to chasing moves in larger caps or at least missing out on performance there. However, “overall appetite to chase seems very low and positioning and sentiment on the whole does not match with markets around ATHs.” Rowe concludes that it is “hard to see this changing in the next month with another two sets of labor market reports, the next Fed meeting and the US election, alongside a weak period of seasonality in regards to earnings downgrades.”

Meanwhile, China will hope that its barrage of monetary stimulus will be enough. It won’t, and as we said yesterday, after an initial euphoric period of 1-2 months, expect the selling to resume…

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… at which point Beijing  – kicking and screaming – will have no choice but to finally unleash the stimulus bazooka, something which Bloomberg reports could come as soon as “the next few days” even though the administration is reticent to endorse any kind of stimulus that involves direct cash payments to the population (that, too, will change), at which point gold and crypto will scream to fresh all time highs.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

UK

UK’s National Grid Admits It Doesn’t Have A Clue How To Reach Net Zero

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Authored by David Turver via Eigen Values substack,

A few weeks ago, Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and his Head of Mission Control, Chris Stark wrote a public letter to Fintan Slye of the National Grid ESO asking for practical advice on how to deliver a clean power grid by 2030.

The letter asked Slye to set out a range of pathways to enable a decarbonised power system by 2030. For each pathway they asked for the forecast energy generation and demand mix and the underlying assumptions that need to be met for these to be deliverable. They also asked for the key requirements for the transmission network and interconnectors and for a high-level assessment of the costs, benefits, opportunities, challenges and risks as well as the key actions to be taken by Government, NESO, Ofgem and industry to enable delivery of the pathways.

Recently, Fintan Slye took to X to announce his initial response. Strangely Slye’s letter is not addressed to Miliband or Stark, but takes the form of an open letter to industry.

Last week @energygovuk asked the ESO to develop advice on how to achieve a decarbonised power system by 2030. Read my open letter to learn how we’ll develop our plan, how it will interact with other energy reforms and how we’ll engage with industry 👉https://t.co/Vxo6TxI4aw

— Fintan Slye (@FintanSlye_eso) September 3, 2024

The letter starts off with warm words announcing the formation of a “cross-cutting delivery unit” that will report back to Government by the end of Autumn 2024, less than three months away. It says its plan will be:

A whole systems spatial view of what is required to deliver a clean, secure, operable electricity system by 2030. The plan will consider possible clean energy generation mixes and their associated network, market and operability requirements, referred to as pathways.

That sounds good as far as it goes.

However, the letter then goes on to say that all pathways will “meet clean power in 2030 against a definition to be agreed with U.K. Government.”

In other words, there is no agreed definition of what a zero-carbon grid by 2030 actually means. It does not know what the target is. It seems that Miliband and Labour have set the country on a journey without properly defining the destination. And the initial request from Miliband and Stark reveals they don’t know how to get there. It’s the blind leading the blind to an unknown destination.

Slye’s letter then states that ESO recognises that accelerating the decarbonisation of the electricity system presents a “significant opportunity”. To capture this opportunity, it will engage with “industry and those with wider expertise” through two stakeholder forums aimed at industry and societal delivery partners. Those societal delivery partners sound quite ominous – are they going to bring out the nudge unit to shame us all into compliance?

Even more worrying is what Slye’s letter misses out. He was asked to provide a high-level assessment of the costs, benefits, opportunities, challenges and risks of delivering a Net Zero grid by 2030. Slye’s letter makes no mention of costs, benefits or risks. He is only focused on the “opportunity”.

In other words, Fintan has slyly moved the goalposts.

The work of NESO will not inform the Government or the public about the costs and risks of delivering the as-yet undefined Net Zero grid by 2030. This is now the blind leading the blind to an unknown destination without knowing the price of the ticket. Fintan Slye is ducking his responsibility and we are going to be short-changed again.

END

FRANCE

end

EUROPE

5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON

Netanyahu must watch his messaging – editorial

Should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu change his tone regarding the conflict with Lebanon?

By JPOST EDITORIALSEPTEMBER 25, 2024 05:51

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After the opening of the weeklong UN General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must carefully consider the message he wants to convey to world leaders increasingly concerned about a regional war escalating in the Middle East.

Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah reportedly killed 500 people on Monday, making it the deadliest day in nearly a year of exchanges.

“No country stands to gain from further escalation in the Middle East,” G7 countries said in a statement. “The cycle of actions and reactions risks escalating the spiral of violence and plunging the entire Middle East into a regional conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell warned: “I can say that we are almost on the brink of total war.”

Netanyahu signaled on Monday that Israel was not interested in an escalation when he issued a direct message to the people of Lebanon, urging them to get out of harm’s way.

War with Hezbollah

“Israel’s war is not with you. It’s with Hezbollah,” he said. “For too long, Hezbollah has been using you as human shields. It placed rockets in your living rooms and missiles in your garage. Those rockets and missiles are aimed directly at our cities, directly at our citizens. To defend our people against Hezbollah strikes, we must take out those weapons…. Please, get out of harm’s way now. Once our operation is finished, you can come back safely to your homes.”

Foreign Minister Israel Katz urged the UN Security Council to take action against Hezbollah and Iran, demanding the full enforcement of Resolution 1701, which mandates the disarmament of Hezbollah and prohibits armed groups in southern Lebanon.

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said in an interview that the United Nations could not mediate conflicts in which the parties themselves did not seek mediation, such as Russia and Ukraine or Israel and Hamas.

“We will not solve all the problems of the world,” he told the Financial Times. “The challenges are huge and probably many would give up, but I can tell you we will not give up. We have no power, we have no money… but we have a voice, and we have some convening capacity.”

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An unnamed American official said the United States would present “concrete ideas” at the UN General Assembly to lower tensions on the Israel-Lebanon border while opposing an Israeli ground invasion to attack Hezbollah. 

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, who took office on Monday, called for an urgent Security Council meeting to discuss the escalating situation between Lebanon and Israel. 

“At this moment, my thoughts are with the Lebanese people, as Israeli strikes have just caused hundreds of civilian casualties, including dozens of children,” he said. “France calls on the parties and their supporters to de-escalate and avoid a regional flare-up that would be devastating for all, especially for civilian populations.”

Take a new approach

On Tuesday, Netanyahu issued a sarcastic statement under the category, “This can only happen at the UN,” noting that ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan had met the previous day with “two great champions of human rights” – “Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, renowned for slaughtering Kurdish civilians and jailing journalists, and with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who denies the Holocaust and pays terrorists who murder Jews.”

He added: “Rather than issuing arrest warrants for war crimes against Erdogan and Abbas, Khan remains obsessed with casting as war criminals Israel’s democratically elected leaders, who are pursuing a just war with just means against genocidal terrorists. What a joke!”

I repeat and reiterate: Israel does not seek war. But we have the right and the duty to defend our people.

Here’s just an example of the threat we face. This IDF video shows how Hezbollah stores and launches missiles in civilian areas and homes. Thousands and thousands of long… pic.twitter.com/mqQryzD8Er

— יצחק הרצוג Isaac Herzog (@Isaac_Herzog) September 23, 2024

In response to the real concern in the international community over a regional war, Netanyahu might want to adopt a more serious tone by taking a leaf out of President Isaac Herzog’s book. Sharing an IDF video that shows how Hezbollah stores thousands of long-range missiles in civilian homes, then launches them with the sole intention of killing Israelis, Herzog declared: “Israel does not seek war. But we have the right and the duty to defend our people…. What nation would accept its citizens living under such a threat from its neighbors?”

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

Israeli strike near Beirut said to have targeted a warehouse

By AFP and ToI Staff

A Lebaneses security source says an Israeli strike several hours ago hit the Saadiyat area near Beirut.

“An Israeli strike hit Saadiyat” on the coast around 20 kilometers (12 miles) south of Beirut, with a “warehouse” targeted, the security source says, requesting anonymity as they aren’t authorized to speak to the media. AFP journalists in the capital reported hearing an explosion

دمار في هنغار على الطريق العامة بين منطقتَي #الجية و #السعديات جرّاء غارات إسرائيلية عنيفة pic.twitter.com/u4aVeZ9OAx

— Annahar (@Annahar) September 24, 2024

END

ISRAEL/BEIRUT/ANALYSIS

Israel keeps moving up the escalation ladder, hoping Nasrallah will jump off

With massive airstrikes on Hezbollah’s missiles, Netanyahu is still trying to get the terror group to hold its fire after 11 months. If it doesn’t, war seems the only option

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Marjayoun, near the Lebanon-Israel border, on September 23, 2024. (Rabih DAHER / AFP)

Israeli jets carried out massive airstrikes across southern Lebanon on Monday, the latest escalation in its attempt to force Hezbollah to stop its 11 months of fire on northern Israel.

According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel is “destroying thousands of missiles and rockets aimed at Israeli cities and Israeli citizens.”

If the terror group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, insists on continuing to launch rockets and drones at Israel to demonstrate solidarity with Hamas — a decision that has cost his organization and Lebanese citizens dearly — Israel’s current attacks will prove advantageous in the event of a ground invasion of Lebanon.

Monday’s strikes are the latest in a series of blows against the Shiite group. An Israeli airstrike on a Beirut suburb on Friday killed top Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil and other leaders of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force.

That operation came days after thousands of communications devices, used mainly by Hezbollah members, exploded in different parts of Lebanon, killing 39 people and wounding nearly 3,000. Lebanon blamed Israel for the attacks, but Israel did not confirm or deny responsibility.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks from the IDF’s military headquarters in Tel Aviv on September 22, 2024. (Screen capture/GPO)

As Israel ramps up the pressure, it is hoping that Nasrallah and his Iranian patrons will decide that the price of their ideological and practical support for Hamas is becoming way too high. Nasrallah has insisted on the linkage between the war in Gaza and rocket fire on Israel’s north; now Jerusalem is doing everything it can to break the connection between the two theaters.

Israeli leaders have not been coy about their plans. Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF chief Herzi Halevi, and other officials all issued statements last Wednesday indicating that a “new phase” of the conflict was underway.

“The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north,” Gallant told Israeli Air Force personnel at the Ramat David Airbase.

Earlier last week, the security cabinet also updated its official goals for the ongoing war with Hamas in Gaza to include the “safe return of the residents of the north to their homes.”

For months, Israel hoped that a hostage deal with Hamas would bring about at least a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon. It now evidently recognizes that the chances for a deal that is acceptable to both sides is highly unlikely in the foreseeable future, especially with IDF forces effectively standing in place on the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors and not applying any military pressure on Hamas.

Now Israel is applying increasing pressure on Hezbollah, while leaving space for Nasrallah to say he has had enough.

People watch the speech of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah as they sit in a cafe in the southern suburbs of Beirut, September 19, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

If the strikes on Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal do not push Nasrallah to end his attacks, Israel has further steps it could take to ramp up the pressure. It could carry out massive strikes on Hezbollah’s Dahiyeh stronghold in southern Beirut, and it could even start to target Lebanese state infrastructure to try to force its weak northern neighbor to fulfill its obligation to prevent attacks from its territory.

But if Nasrallah still does not back down, it’s hard to see how Israel has any choice other than ordering some sort of ground operation.

If that happens, Israel has also gone some way in preparing the ground for an invasion. The beeper attacks — if Israel is indeed behind them — rendered Hezbollah’s tactical communications system irrelevant, which will make it much harder for commanders to give orders to fighters and receive accurate reports from the field.

It also took out hundreds, if not thousands, of fighters from the terror group’s ranks within 48 hours.

Hezbollah’s main deterrent against Israel is its rocket and missile array, especially its long-range ones. The more Israel is able to destroy those capabilities ahead of time, the less Israel’s home front will suffer, and the chances that Hezbollah is able to hit strategic sites in Israel will go down.

According to IDF spokesman Daniel Hagari, the IAF struck some 1,300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon on Monday, including “cruise missiles that can reach hundreds of kilometers, heavy rockets with a 1,000-kilogram warhead, medium-range rockets that reach a range of up to 200 kilometers, short-range rockets, and armed unmanned aerial vehicles.”

US President Joe Biden speaks during a meeting with the members of his cabinet and first lady Jill Biden, in the Cabinet Room of the White House, September 20, 2024. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta)

Meanwhile, the US Biden administration is doing whatever it can behind the scenes to get Hezbollah to agree to a negotiated ceasefire, after almost a year of efforts have borne no fruit.

But it has not used all of the potential tools in its kit. Iran, which could order Hezbollah to back off if it wanted to, is perfectly content watching Lebanese citizens suffer greatly, as long as Israelis suffer moderately.

What it fears, however, is direct attacks on its territory and its forces. The US has refused to use that threat, though it could be the best chance to forestall the war in Lebanon that the White House has tried to head off.

Recent US threats against Iran seem to have worked. After Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran — in what was widely believed to have been an Israeli operation — the US warned of a “serious risk of consequences for Iran’s economy and the stability of its newly elected government” if it attacks Israel. So far, Tehran has chosen not to attack Israel directly, in contrast to its unprecedented strike in April.

With the US unlikely to issue a similar message, and Tehran unlikely to rein Hezbollah in without such a threat, the decision on the next stage of the fight remains in the hands of Nasrallah. If he insists on continuing down the path he embarked on 11 months ago, he will witness the next steps in the IDF’s escalation ladder, which culminates in a ground invasion.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH.USA

Netanyahu Vows Attacks On Lebanon Won’t Stop As Hezbollah Escalates With Deepest Strike Inside Israel

TUESDAY, SEP 24, 2024 – 03:00 PM

Update(1500ET): Sky News and others are reporting that for the first time of the conflict, Hezbollah has launched a drone attack on a navy base which lies south of Haifa. The Atlit navy base which was targeted lies 80 kilometers from the Lebanese border. This is an attack significantly deep into Israel and reveals an extended range of Hezbollah missiles. Likely as things slide further, and with Israel keeping up its intense airstrikes on Lebanon, Hezbollah missiles will begin reaching further and further.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said late in the day Tuesday (local time) on X: “We will continue striking Hezbollah. Anyone who has a missile in their living room and a rocket in their garage will not have a home.”

Israel’s military has been repeatedly claiming that Hezbollah is storming missiles, drones, and ammunition inside people’s homes in the south of Lebanon. “Our war is not with you, our war is with Hezbollah,” he warned in the message emphasizing that Israel won’t stop its strikes.

Hezbollah announces targeting using a swarm of one-way drones the HQ of the Israeli Special Naval Task Unit Shayetet 13 at the Atlit base south of Haifa.

The drones – the farthest drone strike so far – accurately hit the positions of its officers and soldiers.

— Hussein (@EyesOnSouth1) September 24, 2024

“Nasrallah is leading you to the brink of the abyss,” Netanyahu added in the message directed at the Lebanese population. “Rid yourself from Nasrallah’s grip, for your own good.”

Israel’s Iron Dome anti-air defense system continues to be highly active over the north:

⚡️Safad now pic.twitter.com/4EFr9IVY1t

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) September 24, 2024

* * *

Update(1128ET): Once again President Biden has issued contradictory messaging on the current Middle East crisis. With Israel in its second day of greatly ramped-up airstrikes on Lebanon, amid a new declared offensive, Biden asserted what he framed as Israel’s right to defend itself. Israel will surely take this as effectively a greenlight from the US administration.

“Any country, any country, would have the right responsibility to ensure that such an attack could never happen again,” Biden said while referencing the Oct.7 attack. But then he quickly highlighted that in Gaza, “Innocent civilians” are also “going through hell.” He said the “Thousands and thousands killed, including aid workers. Too many families dislocated, crowded in a tent, facing a dire situation.” He added: “They didn’t ask for this war.”

And that’s when he said he is “determined to prevent a wider war that engulfs the entire region” – but that’s looking a little too late at this point, considering the fast-moving Lebanon events.

Israel’s military has meanwhile said that the Tuesday airstrike on a building in southern Beirut killed Hezbollah’s rocket and missile division Ibrahim Qubaisi. Lebanese officials have so far said that six were killed and 15 were wounded in the strike, among some 560 total killed in the last day-and-a-half. Hezbollah has yet to confirm Qubaisi’s death.

“Over the years and during the war, he was responsible for the launches at the Israeli home front. Qubaisi was a central source of of knowledge in the field of missiles, and was close to the senior military leadership of Hezbollah,” the IDF said of the allegedly deceased target.

There are meanwhile growing fears that if Iran enters the conflict directly in Lebanon, the United States could then jump in and it would be escalation chaos to regional conflagration:

Raymond Murphy, a professor at the University of Galway’s Irish Centre for Human Rights, says the situation in Lebanon is “extremely dangerous” and that Israel has attacked to not only defeat Hezbollah but provoke it to respond with increasing force.

“And as a consequence, possibly to bring Iran into the conflict, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, which would force the hand of the United States,” the former UN peacekeeper told Al Jazeera from Galway, Ireland.

“So if the situation escalates and Hezbollah falls for what is essentially a trap that’s being set by the Israelis and responds very forcefully… then the United States will also step in in defense of Israel,” Murphy continued. This after yesterday the Pentagon announced it has deployed more troops to the region, but without disclosing their precise mission or deployment base.

🚨🇱🇧ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES HIT HEZBOLLAH WITH UNPRECEDENTED FORCE

The Israeli Air Force has launched its most extensive airstrikes ever against Hezbollah, targeting over 1,600 sites in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley within a day.

The strikes focused on Hezbollah's elite… pic.twitter.com/UitD2soDVp

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 24, 2024

Regional correspondents by late afternoon Tuesday (local time) say that Israeli strike on southern Beirut suburbs are becoming more frequent.

* * *

On Tuesday White House national security spokesman John Kirby urged that all Americans should leave Lebanon immediately while there are still flights. Two days of heavy Israeli airstrikes targeting especially Hezbollah strongholds of the south have killed at least 558 people and left 1,835 injured, according to the latest Lebanese Healthy Ministry figures. The situation is growing more urgent as the war comes to Beirut.

“We want to make sure that there are still commercial options available for Americans to leave, and they should be leaving now while those options are available,” Kirby told ABC News. The US Embassy in Beirut has since October a year ago issued several alerts and warnings telling Americans to leave the country.

The US has warships in the Mediterranean in the scenario that direct emergency evacuations of stranded US citizens are needed.

Lebanese government sources say that among the over 500 dead are 50 children. Official figures have not distinguished the rest of the fatalities between militants and civilians.

Also on Tuesday Israel launched a third airstrike on the Lebanese capital, again targeting a southern neighborhood in what’s possibly another attempt to take out Hezbollah commanders. Israel’s military says it has attacked over 1,300 Hezbollah targets over the prior 24 hours.

Since yesterday and throughout the night, tens of thousands of civilians have made their way on clogged freeways from the south to north. Many poured into Beirut while others went all the way north to Tripoli.

The below video shows a fresh strike on the Lebanese capital Tuesday:

🚨🇱🇧ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES HIT HEZBOLLAH WITH UNPRECEDENTED FORCE

The Israeli Air Force has launched its most extensive airstrikes ever against Hezbollah, targeting over 1,600 sites in southern Lebanon and the Beqaa Valley within a day.

The strikes focused on Hezbollah's elite… pic.twitter.com/UitD2soDVp

— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) September 24, 2024

Historically Hezbollah has long presented itself as the protecting force to the residents of the south, so the fact that it is struggling to provide this now is widely seen as a significant negative blow to its reputation.

As Westerners and Lebanese alike look for a way out, options to get out of the country are fast dwindling. Already most major American and European carriers had halted service to Beirut, but regional carriers are joining them as Israel expands aerial operations to Beirut:

Gulf airlines, including Emirates and Qatar Airways, temporarily suspended flights to Beirut as tensions soared between Israel and Hezbollah.

“The safety of our crew and customers is of utmost importance and will not be compromised,” Emirates said in a statement, announcing the suspension of flights on Tuesday and Wednesday. Etihad Airways and flydubai also joined several international carriers in suspending Beirut services.

The latest airstrike on Beirut appears to have hit a single residential building, with Lebanon’s National News Agency (NNA) reporting several casualties. Initial reports from the region say there are at least three fatalities. 

It happened in the southern neighborhood of Ghobeiri, and emergency responders are seeking to access people reportedly trapped among three severely damaged or collapsed floors.

Israeli media is meanwhile reporting that “the target of the Israeli airstrike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut is the head of Hezbollah’s missile unit, defense sources tell Israeli media.” However at this early point his fate is unknown.

Hezbollah meanwhile has fired over 100 rockets on northern Israel in the past several hours, and aerial alarms have been frequently sounding in the port city of Haifa – as it’s come under attack in the past days.

An Israeli official has described the current IDF mission in Lebanon as seeking “to change the balance of power in the north by destroying thousands of rockets, by destroying [Hezbollah’s] capabilities, and through other means.” It began with “various explosions of beepers and other devices across Lebanon” (despite Israel now strangely officially denying it was behind the pager attacks). 

غارة إسرائيلية على منطقة الغبيري في الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت #lebanon24 pic.twitter.com/dkYJ9SXmZw

— Lebanon 24 (@Lebanon24) September 24, 2024

“It continued with the assassination of Ibrahim Aqil and the Radwan leadership,” the official described to Times of Israel. “And it has continued over the past two days with the expansion of massive fire with the aim of hitting Hezbollah hard.”

Fires in the aftermath of Hezbollah rockets raining down on northern Israeli towns and settlements:

The United Nations is calling for urgent de-escalation, saying that diplomacy is still possible, but on the ground it’s looking like that ship has sailed.

END

This is huge: Israel wipes out their intelligence network of around 60 targets

(Jerusalem Post)

IDF strikes 60 targets belonging to Hezbollah’s intelligence directorate

IDF strikes Hezbollah intelligence network, delivering major blow to communications and coordination

By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 25, 2024 16:00Updated: SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 16:27

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The IDF on Wednesday announced that it had bombed Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters network in 60 different spots.

According to the IDF, this will immediately and directly impact Hezbollah’s ability to collect intelligence, coordinate intelligence efforts, and its various tools for evaluating the broader battlefield picture.

A map of those areas attacked showed a huge number of targets in southern Lebanon, a few deep into the Bekaa Valley, a few in central Lebanon, and one on the western coast.

The simultaneous attack appeared focused on achieving a moment of shock and confusion across Lebanon.

Given the huge blow to Hezbollah’s communications from the beeper and walkie-talkie explosions since the middle of last week, as well as the numerous top commanders killed since Friday of last week, bringing down Hezbollah’s intelligence network could leave it substantially blind regarding the developing battlefield.

The future of Hezbollah

This could make it harder for Hezbollah to know what rockets can still be fired versus which have been destroyed, as well as make it harder to defend against a future potential IDF ground invasion.

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

Missile intercepted over central Israel after Hezbollah targets Tel Aviv

In what the IDF called “a quick closing of the circle,” the Air Force detected the launcher from which Hezbollah launched the missile, and subsequently attacked it.

By MATHILDA HELLERSEPTEMBER 25, 2024 06:36Updated: SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 08:48

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For the first time, Hezbollah launched a rocket at Tel Aviv, with sirens sounding across the city in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

The IDF announced that one surface-to-surface missile from Lebanon had targeted central Israel, but was intercepted by the David’s Slingshot aerial defense system.

In what the IDF called “a quick closing of the circle,” the Air Force detected the launcher from which Hezbollah launched the missile, and subsequently attacked it. The launcher was in Nafakhiyeh, Lebanon, which is about 20 km from the border with Israel.

צה"ל תקף את המשגר ממנו זוהה השיגור לעבר גוש דן הבוקר@Doron_Kadosh pic.twitter.com/NSHwgNArsj

— גלצ (@GLZRadio) September 25, 2024

Hezbollah took responsibility for the launch on their official telegram on Wednesday, saying they had launcher a  “Qadr 1” ballistic missile at the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv.

Hezbollah alleged that this HQ was responsible for planning and orchestrating the assassination of their leaders and the pager and communications attack last week. 

Sources claimed to the Saudi Al-Hadath newspaper that Hezbollah wanted to convey a symbolic message by launching the attack at 06:29 – the time the attack began on October 7.

There will be no change to the current defensive guidelines provided by the IDF, and educational activities will continue as usual in central Israel. The municipality of Tel Aviv-Jaffa confirmed that everything would proceed as normal, but that they were in contact with security services and would update as needed.

Shortly after the sirens, Magen David Adom (MDA) updated that no emergency calls or reports of any wounded had been received.

🚨Interception over Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/UVktv82Hlc

— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) September 25, 2024

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Arab media, including Saudi channel Al-Hadath, reported that the target of the missile was the IDF intelligence base in Glilot, north of Tel Aviv.

Despite some initial reports of delays at Ben Gurion International Airport following the sirens, the airport said everything was working as planned, including departures and landings. Airlines such as Wizz Air and Greek airline Aegean Airlines have canceled flights until 11:00 a.m.

According to KAN, several airlines, including Aegean and Wizz Air, canceled all flights to Israel until 11, following the incident.

The municipality of Netanya said that no falls had been reported. The Mayor of Ramat Gan posted on X/Twitter that “the closure of the education system carries a heavy price; our children have been affected for several years by the closure of the education system due to COVID and the war, they need stability.”

“As long as we are able to do so, we prefer to keep schools open.” 

Attacks on Tel Aviv

According to KAN, Brigadier General (Res.) Ilan Biton, former head of Israel’s Air Defense Division, said that “The anti long-range missile and rocket defense systems know how to intercept. However, the system is not airtight. It should be assessed that the rate of missiles that aren’t intercepted from Lebanon will be higher, so proper behavior is vital.”

This is the first rocket fired toward central Israel since Yemen’s Houthis fired a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv on September 15.

Nine people were lightly wounded while running to safe rooms following the sirens, Magen David Adom reported, adding that paramedics had evacuated the injured to the hospital. 

This is a developing story.

end

ISRAEL/ HEZBOLLAH/UN

At UN, world leaders warn against ‘full-scale war’ between Israel and Hezbollah

Biden says ‘diplomatic solution still possible,’ ahead of Security Council session on Lebanon set for Wednesday; Macron urges Iran’s president to use his influence on Hezbollah

By AFP and TOI STAFFToday, 4:18 a

Smoke rises behind a destroyed house following an Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah targets in Khiam village, as seen from Marjayoun town, south Lebanon, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

World leaders lined up at the United Nations on Tuesday to call on Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah to refrain from a full-scale war, with the UN chief warning the situation was on the “brink.”

The UN General Assembly, the high point of the international diplomatic calendar, comes after Lebanese authorities said Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah had killed 558 people — 50 of them children. The Lebanese tally did not differentiate between civilians and combatants.

“Full-scale war is not in anyone’s interest. Even though the situation has escalated, a diplomatic solution is still possible,” US President Joe Biden said in his farewell address to the global body.

“In fact, it remains the only path to lasting security to allow the residents from both countries to return to their homes on the border safely,” Biden said ahead of an emergency UN Security Council session on Lebanon planned for Wednesday.

Biden’s remarks drew disappointment from Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Bou Habib who said they were “not promising” and “would not solve the Lebanese problem,” as he estimated that the number of people displaced by Israel’s strikes has likely soared to reach half a million.

“We should all be alarmed by the escalation. Lebanon is at the brink,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said when he opened the gathering.

United States President Joe Biden addresses the 79th session of the United Nations General Assembly, Tuesday, Sept. 24, 2024, at UN headquarters. (AP Photo/Julia Demaree Nikhinson)

Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon said his country was “not eager” for a ground invasion of Lebanon.

“We don’t want to send our boys to fight in a foreign country,” he said.

‘End this war’

It is unclear what progress can be made to defuse the situation in Lebanon, from where Hezbollah has been attacking northern Israeli communities and military posts for nearly a year, with efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas coming to nothing.

Biden on Tuesday pushed again for an elusive ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas, telling the global body it was time to “end this war.”

Mediator Qatar charged that Israel was obstructing Gaza ceasefire talks, with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani saying “there is no Israeli partner for peace” under the government of Benjamin Netanyahu.

But he added: “We will continue our efforts of mediation to resolve the disputes through peaceful means.”

IDF troops operate in southern Gaza’s Rafah, in a handout image published September 24, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan accused Israel of dragging the entire region “into war.”

“Not only children but also the UN system is dying in Gaza,” Erdogan said in a scathing speech.

Guterres cautioned against “the possibility of transforming Lebanon (into) another Gaza,” calling the situation in the Palestinian territory a “non-stop nightmare.”

European Council President Charles Michel said that Israel had the right to exist and defend itself but without inflicting “collective punishment” on civilians living in areas targeted by its military.

President Masoud Pezeshkian of Iran — which backs Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza — condemned “senseless and incomprehensible” inaction by the UN against Israel.

French President Emmanuel Macron (L) meets with Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian (R) on the sidelines of the 79th Session of the United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York City on September 24, 2024. (Ludovic Marin/AFP)

Pezeshkian later met with French President Emmanuel Macron, whose office said he called on his Iranian counterpart to use his influence to reduce the soaring tensions in Lebanon.

Macron “highlighted the responsibility of Iran to support a general deescalation and use its influence with destabilizing actors,” said an Elysee statement on the meeting, in a clear reference to Iranian-backed Hezbollah.

‘Charade of hypocrisy’

British Foreign Minister David Lammy also sounded the alarm over the escalating violence in Lebanon.

“I am very worried about the risk of escalation, and this breaking into a wider regional conflict,” he told AFP as Britain announced it was deploying military units to Cyprus to assist with any evacuation of its citizens from Lebanon.

Responding to criticism of Israel, Danon called the General Assembly debate an “annual charade of hypocrisy.”

Israeli Ambassador Danny Danon addresses an event on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly a United Nations headquarters in New York, September 22, 2024. (Angela Weiss/AFP)

Since last year’s annual gathering, when Sudan’s civil war and Russia’s Ukraine invasion dominated, the world has faced an explosion of crises.

Hamas’s October 7 attack, in which Palestinian terrorists killed some 1,200 people and took 251 hostages, triggered the ongoing war in Gaza, while violence has raged across multiple other fronts in the Middle East since that crisis erupted, with the conflict exposing deep divisions at the UN.

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas took his seat alongside the Palestinian delegation, placed in alphabetical order in the General Assembly for the first time on Tuesday after the delegation received upgraded privileges in May.

At the rostrum, Jordan’s King Abdullah II on Tuesday ruled out any forced displacement by Israel of Palestinians to his country, which he said would be a “war crime.”

Ukraine was also on the agenda Tuesday with President Volodymyr Zelensky addressing a UN Security Council meeting on the Russian invasion.

“Russia can only be forced into peace, and that is exactly what’s needed — forcing Russia into peace,” Zelensky said.

end

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

IDF Prepares Ground Invasion Of Lebanon, Calls Up Reserve Brigades

T

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 12:25 PM

After Hezbollah’s launch of an Iran-made ballistic missile on Tel Aviv, a first of the war which we detailed earlier, Israel is preparing to activate two reserve brigades for ongoing operations on its ‘northern front’ with Lebanon.

A fresh statement by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said boosting forces with reserve manpower will “enable the continuation of the fighting efforts against Hezbollah, the protection of Israeli citizens and creating conditions for the return of the residents of the north safely back home.”

This comes simultaneous to talk of a ground offensive in southern Lebanon, which would mark a first since the 2006 war, which proved somewhat devastating for both sides. The IDF chief has said “we are preparing for a ground maneuver” in Lebanon ahead of an important security cabinet meeting under PM Netanyahu.

The head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command, Major General Ori Gordin, has said in new statements issued to his forces that they should “strongly prepare” for a ground offensive.

Gen. Gordin addressed troops who are reportedly conducting exercises simulating a ground invasion. He said the campaign “began with a very significant blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities” with a focus on attacking Hezbollah’s launch locations, preparing the way for more effective ground maneuvers. He stressed in the comments that the IDF needs “to change the security situation” and be “strongly prepared to enter Lebanon in a [ground] maneuver.”

Israel has already activated some reserve units is multiple waves related to combating Hamas in Gaza – an operation which is fast approaching the one-year mark.

Israel has been warning Lebanese civilians to flee the south, which has included aircraft dropping leaflets telling people to evacuate to the north of the country. All of this strongly suggests a ground invasion could be imminent: 

Since Monday, Israel has widened its airstrikes in Lebanon, targeting more than 2,000 Hezbollah sites and killing at least 569 people, including 50 children. Nearly 500,000 people have been internally displaced as they fled the heavy airstrikes in the south and east, according to the Lebanese Foreign Ministry.

“The east” is a reference to the heavy bombardment of the Bekka Valley, another Hezbollah stronghold where heavy weapons and ammo are believed stored.

Calls from the United Nations for de-escalation and a diplomatic path forward have fallen on deaf ears. The White House on Wednesday issued a new statement which called Hezbollah’s launch of a ballistic missile at Tel Aviv “concerning”. 

White House national security council spokesman John Kirby told CNN it was “Deeply concerning.” He called out Iran in particular: “Evidence again… that Israel is facing a legitimate threat from a terrorist group backed by Iran,” he said.

Below: Israeli strike reportedly in Mount Lebanon area, southeast of Beirut:

⚡️Zionist terrorists strike somewhere in mount Lebanon, trying to get a location pic.twitter.com/SZ93N0e03J

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) September 25, 2024

16&width=550px

“The United States continues to support Israel’s right to defend itself,” he added. “No nation should have to live with these threats right across their border, right next door.”

As for Iran, it appears reluctant to enter the Israel-Hezbollah conflict in any direct way, though there is a likelihood that IRGC officers are on the ground in Lebanon. In the 2006 war IRGC operatives played an advisory role as Hezbollah launched sophisticated weapons at Israel. There are fresh reports saying Tehran has specifically denied a Hezbollah request to attack Israel directly:

The Islamic Republic has backed off requests from their Hezbollah proxies to attack Israel in response to last summer’s assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, three sources informed Axios on Tuesday.

Two Israeli officials told the news provider that authorities in the Iran regime believe “the timing isn’t right” for their involvement because the theocracy’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is attending the 79th United Nations General Assembly in New York.

A Western diplomat confirmed the revelation, stating that Washington’s intelligence services have determined Hezbollah’s leadership reached out to their Tehran-based supporters for assistance in recent days.

War headed into different phase if we don't see diplomatic breakthrough soon

– Israel laying ground for return to 1985, occupying buffer area in S Lebanon

– Hezbollah undeterred still firing missiles, an Israeli occupation in South would work in its favor

– US careful in…

— Joyce Karam (@Joyce_Karam) September 25, 2024

Currently, Syria’s Assad has also appeared reluctant to jump in, only offering assistance to Lebanon in various areas. Hundreds of Lebanese civilians have reportedly fled into Syria as a result of Israel’s bombing campaign this week.

ISRAEL/HAMAS/

IDF soldiers kill 40 terrorists across Gaza, destroy Hamas infrastructure

The terrorists killed were members of the rocket division, the weapons division, and the intelligence division.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 25, 2024 16:57Updated: SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 17:28

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Upwards of 40 terrorists were killed during fighting across the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported Wednesday.

The terrorists killed were members of the rocket division, the weapons division, and the intelligence division.

In the north of the Gaza Strip, targeted raids were carried out in Beit Lahia to destroy Hamas infrastructure.

During the operation, the fighters located and destroyed three groups of launchers, 27 launchers in total.

In one of them, three were found loaded with rockets ready to be launched immediately.

Operations across the Gaza Strip

In the central Gaza Strip, IDF troops began several simultaneous operations on the outskirts of Nuseirat and Zeitoun to destroy Hamas infrastructure in the area.

In addition, a number of important tunnel shafts and enemy observation outposts were located and destroyed.

In southern Gaza, IDF troops continued to operate in Rafah and along the Philadelphi corridor.

The soldiers killed terrorists who were operating from shafts based in city infrastructure, where they discovered significant weapons stashes

ISRAEL/SYRIA

multiple explosions in the Syrian port City of Tartus which hosts the Russian navy

(Zerohedge)

Israeli Missiles Intercepted Over Syrian Port City Which Hosts Russian Navy

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 02:45 AM

The Syrian Army has told Reuters that Israeli missiles have targeted the Syrian port city of Tartous shortly before midnight Tuesday evening (local time).

Syria’s air defenses reportedly intercepted the inbound missiles, with Al Mayadeen saying that at least two Israeli missiles were observed inbound. There are currently widespread reports of multiple explosions.

Tartous is Syria’s second largest coastal city. It lies just to the north of Lebanon, and Israeli attacks on it are very rare. Instead, most assaults have focused on Damascus and its environs over the past several years.

The staunchly pro-government stronghold didn’t even come under much Israeli fire throughout the totality of the Syrian proxy war.

Russian bases and assets are positioned in Tartous and nearby along the coast, a reality which has also ensured that Israeli strikes there remain relatively rare. The Russian Navy’s only deep water Mediterranean port is located in Tartous.

Israeli media has also picked up on the nighttime attack, and is writing that the Israeli Air Force was likely behind it.

Currently Israel is engaged in a new expanded anti-Hezbollah offensive in south Lebanon, which has resulted in over 550 Lebanese deaths and thousands of injuries.

There are fears that the fighting could spread through the region, if Shia paramilitary groups in Iraq and Syria get involved, and if Tehran directly enters the fighting in Lebanon. Damascus has always been a powerful state ally of Hezbollah.

Syrian air defenses confronting Israeli missiles off the coast of Tartous. pic.twitter.com/iG8V6TuoCl

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) September 24, 2024

So far, the Assad government has remained uncharacteristically quiet regarding what’s happening in Lebanon, even as some pro-Hezbollah Lebanese have questioned why Damascus hasn’t come to Hezbollah’s direct aid.

END

Hezbollah Fires First Ballistic Missile On Tel Aviv, Targets Mossad Headquarters

Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024 – 09:55 AM

Yesterday marked a first where Hezbollah targeted an Israeli naval base south of Haifa with a missile salvo. And today marks another new major first: Israel says it has intercepted a Hezbollah ballistic missile aimed at Tel Aviv. It marks a first of the war and the deepest Hezbollah has ever tried to send a projectile into Israel.

“The Israeli military said it intercepted the surface-to-surface missile, which set off air-raid sirens in Tel Aviv and across central Israel,” Associated Press reports. “There were no reports of casualties or damage.” In retaliation Israel’s military (IDF) said it struck a site in south Lebanon from where the missile was launched.

Hezbollah later said it was targeting the command headquarters of Israel’s Mossad spy agency. Given the intercept, the effort didn’t appear to come close, but it strongly suggests there could be more waves of strikes targeting Tel Aviv to come. The projectile was reportedly intercepted by Israel’s David’s Sling system, a medium-range defense system.

Israeli military spokesperson Nadav Shoshani characterized the missile as “heavy” and “long range.” He described, “It’s the first time that Hezbollah has fired toward Tel Aviv.” According to more confirmation of the unprecedented action from CNN:

The Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah confirmed it launched a Qadr 1 ballistic missile targeting the headquarters of Israel’s intelligence service Mossad, which it blames for attacks targeting its members, including the coordinated explosions of thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies last week.

The attempt to attack Tel Aviv appeared a retaliation effort for the Tuesday death of Hezbollah’s top missile commander Ibrahim Muhammad Qabisi. Israeli jets struck his home in a southern Beirut neighborhood, in a strike which Lebanese officials said killed six and wounded 15.

An IDF spokesman described that in total on Tuesday Hezbollah fired 300 projectiles into Israel, resulting in six people wounded.

In Lebanon, Monday marked the single deadliest day since the 2006 war with Israel. The Health Ministry said over 490 people were killed, among these 90 women and children. It is unclear how many of the total were militants, with some reports saying the majority of casualties are civilians.

Rare sirens and a ballistic intercept over Tel Aviv:

While it’s clear the two sides are finally in a ‘war’ – there could yet still be more escalation given the IDF has yet to launch a ground operation inside southern Lebanon. Iran has also yet to directly enter the conflict, and Syria has appeared to play it safe as well. The head of the Israeli army’s Northern Command, Major General Ori Gordin, has said in new statements issued to his forces that they should “strongly prepare” for a ground offensive.

Gen. Gordin addressed troops who are reportedly conducting exercises simulating a ground invasion. He said the campaign “began with a very significant blow to Hezbollah’s capabilities” with a focus on attacking Hezbollah’s launch locations, preparing the way for more effective ground maneuvers.

He stressed in the comments that the IDF needs “to change the security situation” and be “strongly prepared to enter Lebanon in a [ground] maneuver.” But this could prove more costly to the IDF infantry, given Hezbollah is well known for their ground warfare and guerilla tactics, especially in the context of the 2006 war.

Tens of thousands of south Lebanon residents have continued making their way north amid the heavier airstrikes and fighting. “Our way out was very slow. The traffic was horrible. It was really hard,” one woman, identified as Souad Mahde, told a regional outlet. “We moved for a bit and stopped for a bit. There were strikes here and there until we reached Beirut. It took us until evening.”

“Even in Beirut, there is an atmosphere of war. Of course, we are in a war,” she said, given there’s been at least three major airstrikes on the capital of the last several days.

The fact that Hezbollah is now launching ballistic missiles toward Tel Aviv is likely to hasten more Israeli airstrikes on the Lebanese capital, specifically against Hezbollah strongholds in the south. Israel’s military says it has hit 60 targets in Lebanon so far on Wednesday. “The strikes destroyed intelligence-gathering tools, command centers, and additional infrastructure used by the enemy to build an intelligence situational assessment,” the IDF military said.

* * * 

I

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/ANALYSIS

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

So much for Zelensky’s victory dance;

(zerohedge)

Key Ukrainian Stronghold About To Fall To Russia As Zelensky Touts ‘Victory Plan’ In D.C.

Tuesday, Sep 24, 2024 – 06:50 PM

Having been in the United States since Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is about to present his ‘victory plan’ to President Biden, as well as VP Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, likely in that order as the meetings unfold this week.

He said in an ABC News interview published Tuesday, “I think that we are closer to peace than we think.” But he caveated this by saying this will only be assured if Ukraine comes from a “strong position” with the help of Western backers.

He described his so-called victory plan as not being focused on seeking to negotiate with Russia, but rather it is “a bridge to a diplomatic way out, to stop the war.”

“We just have to be very strong, very strong,” Zelensky said, and this is largely dependent on the “quick decisions”. He has also of late said that “bold” decisions must be made by Washington, in reference to the request for NATO to greenlight long-range missiles strikes on Russia.

“Everybody’s looking up to [Biden], and we need this to defend ourselves,” he told ABC, in an obvious effort to increase pressure on a somewhat hesitant White House. Ukraine also wants a firm path to NATO membership.

He further said his plan is about “the strengthening of Ukraine, Ukrainian army and Ukrainian people. Only in the strong position we can push [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to stop the war – diplomatic way.” He emphasized: “That is why we are asking our friend.”

Despite this optimism about Ukraine’s battlefield chances from Zelensky, Reuters on Tuesday has more bad news for Kiev, centering on rapid gains in Donetsk as another key town is about to fall.

Zelensky is pulling out all the stops in a final push to wring U.S. taxpayers for more money.

He knows the policies of unlimited funding and escalation supported by the Harris-Biden Admin have an expiration date. https://t.co/GeeUC6lMEA

— Rep. Eli Crane (@RepEliCrane) September 24, 2024

“Russian forces have begun storming the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, a stronghold that has resisted Russian attack since the beginning of the 2022 war, according to Russian war bloggers and state media,” Reuters writes.

“Russian forces in eastern Ukraine advanced at their fastest rate in two years in August, according to multiple open source maps, even though a Ukrainian incursion into Russia’s Kursk region sought to force Moscow to divert troops.”

One well-known regional journalist and war observer, Leonid Ragozin—formerly of the BBC—agrees that things are looking bad for Ukraine forces in Vuhledar…

As confirmed by both Russian and Ukrainian sources, the Russians have entered Vuhledar – a key Ukrainian stronghold at the junction of eastern and southern fronts. The potential effect of its capture is hard to overestimate.

They are also closing the lid on the near-encircled…

— Leonid Ragozin (@leonidragozin) September 24, 2024

“The situation on the frontline couldn’t be worse for Zelensky-Biden summit,” Ragoniz writes.

So it seems Zelensky is busy in Washington ramping up the hawkish talking points even as his forces are against the ropes in the Donbass. “Russia can only be forced into peace, and that is exactly what’s needed — forcing Russia into peace,” Zelensky had told ABC further. But so far, it seems the opposition situation is unfolding.

RUSSIA

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

72 bodybuilders (that we know of) have “died suddenly” worldwide these last 3+ years, while two were badly sickened

Under “COVID,” death comes for the spectacularly fit (among many, many, many, many others)

Mark Crispin MillerSep 25

READ IN APP

UNITED STATES

Jake Kazmarek: 28-year-old New York bodybuilder says getting vaccine does not make him a “sheep,” dead four days after second Moderna mRNA injection

December 18, 2021

ROCHESTER, NEW YORK — A 28-year-old bodybuilder and FedEx driver is dead despite knowing the risks and seeing through the propaganda surrounding the injections and the medical industry at-large.

Mr. Jake Kazmarek would likely be classified as an “anti-vaxxer” by Fauci disciples. He insinuated in one post that big pharma is profiting off the so-called pandemic, without regard to public health.

He also recently posted about the obvious hustle known as American medicine.

Despite Mr. Kazmarek being fully aware of what’s happening, he succumbed to the pressure and the fallacious “vaccines equal freedom” narrative. Mr. Kazmarek received his first Moderna mRNA injection on August 31, according to a now-deleted Facebook post. He suffered no apparent adverse effects. But Mr. Kazmarek also did not comment publicly about his first injection.

He received his second Moderna mRNA injection on September 28. Mr. Kazmarek posted a photo of his “vaccine card” that day. He captioned the post saying “it is what it is” and suggested he only got the shots for his freedom. Mr. Kazmarek also asked a rhetorical question that he answered himself. “Does it make me a sheep? No,” he wrote.

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Ms Fitness USA Ahmo Hight dies just weeks before her 50th birthday as tributes pour in

September 1, 2023

Ahmo Hight, fitness model and former Ms Fitness USA, has died at the age of 49, less than three weeks before her 50th birthday. The sad news was confirmed by pro-bodybuilder Chris Cormier, who is the father of Ahmo’s son. Her cause of death is yet to be revealed. Ahmo died on August 29, with it being reported that she suffered a fall as she was exiting a marketplace. She’s said to have slipped and hit her head, but decided against going to hospital following the fall. A day later, the fitness influencer is said to have woken up without an appetite before going back to sleep. She died shortly after at around 9 am. Speaking to Generation Iron, Chris said medical professionals believe she suffered a blood clot which was caused by the initial injury.

No cause of death reported.

Link

World-famous bodybuilder Neil Currey ‘dies suddenly’ at 34

September 18, 2023

World-renowned bodybuilder Neil Currey has died, his former trainer announced last Monday. He was 34 years old. Milo Sarcev broke the news of Currey’s death on Instagram, calling it “absolutely shocking.” Though the post originally alleged suicide, it has since been edited and now makes no mention of suicide, reports Truth Press. Currey was a professional bodybuilder who won the gold medal at the 2022 New York Pro. He then went on to compete in Mr. Olympia, the international contest which launched the career of Arnold Schwarzenegger. He finished 16th in the Classic Physique category.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Who is bodybuilder Chad McCrary as he passes away, cause of death, obituary, bio, age and family

January 17, 2024

Nearly two decades ago, McCrary [49] suffered a life-altering spinal injury in a motorcycle accident during a cross-country race. Despite being paraplegic, he reentered bodybuilding competitions just six months later, competing in the wheelchair division. News of his passing was confirmed by the fitness page Bisandtris on January 2, without disclosing the cause of death. The post paid tribute to McCrary’s remarkable career, expressing condolences to his family and friends.

Link

Bodybuilding coach Dave Kalick has reportedly passed away

February 7, 2024

The bodybuilding community mourns the loss of renowned coach Dave Kalick, whose passing has left a significant void in the community. Though the cause of death has not been stated, bodybuilder Dorian Haywood shared the news and his condolences on Instagram.

No age reported.

Link

Who is Guy Del Corso? Popular bodybuilder and fitness coach dead

February 16, 2024

Guy Del Corso died Thursday, February 15th 2024, almost two weeks to the day after first suffering a stroke on February 2nd. Del Corso was crowned Mr. New Jersey in 1988 and was still competing in bodybuilding competitions into his ’50s, retiring in 2009. He passed away peacefully on Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024 around 7 am. He had suffered a stroke on Monday, Feb. 3, 2024, which affected his ability to talk and move the right side of his body.

Link

Nonfatal:

“Had a little scare this week”: CEO of Gym Positivity Joey Swoll goes through 6hrs-long heart surgery

April 28, 2024

Orange County, California – Joey Swoll, the crusader of gym positivity, recently faced a daunting ordeal as he underwent a six-hour heart surgery, surprising both himself and his fans. Reflecting on the surgery, which was initially anticipated to last a mere 30 to 45 minutes, Swoll revealed the unexpected twist: “Had a little scare this week with what was to be a routine 30-45 min heart surgery ended up being 6 hours on the table.” Despite the prolonged procedure, Swoll reassured his followers that he was safe and sound, emphasizing, “In the end I made it. I’m home, and I’m 100% for the first time in years. My heart is the best it’s ever been.” Earlier in the year, he underwent another surgery, marking a challenging start to the year. In an old Instagram post, the 47-year-old shared his journey of overcoming health challenges. Addressing his surgery at the end of 2023 to fix an umbilical hernia, he revealed, “Finishing off 2023 with surgery this week to fix an umbilical hernia I’ve had since I was a baby.” Despite enduring the discomfort since childhood, he bravely faced surgery in his late 40s. Later, Swoll experienced chest pain, prompting him to consult a cardiologist.

Link

Bodybuilder Douglas Fruchey dead at 36 after he passes suddenly in his LA apartment

June 15, 2024

Bodybuilder Douglas Fruchey has been found dead at his apartment in Los Angeles, having passed suddenly aged 36. Fruchey had announced himself as a popular figure within the bodybuilding scene in recent years.

No cause of death reported.

Link

NPC bodybuilder Danny Broadhurst dies unexpectedly at 32

July 13, 2024

The bodybuilding world is in mourning following the sudden death of national-level competitor Danny Broadhurst at the young age of 32. The cause of his death has not been confirmed at the time of writing, adding to the shock and grief felt by his friends, family, and fans. Broadhurst’s demise came as a morbid reminder of how the sport can be taxing on one’s health.

Link

Former pro bodybuilder Eugene Mishin passed away at 48 years old

August 17, 2024

Hicksville, New York – Retired IFBB Pro Men’s Open bodybuilder Eugene Mishin, also known as Evgeny Mishin, has died. He was 48 years old. Dave Palumbo of RxMuscle broke the news on his Instagram page, confirming Mishin’s passing on Friday, Aug. 16, 2024. According to Palumbo, Mishin stopped breathing, and paramedics tried reviving him for 45 minutes. Mishin’s death was unexpected as he was active on his Instagram account less than 24 hours before his passing. In recent years, Mishin has been active as a coach for other bodybuilders. No cause of death is confirmed at the time of this article’s publication.

Link

Pro wheelchair bodybuilding Colt Wynn has passed away at 38

August 29, 2024

Pro Wheelchair Bodybuilder Colt Wynn has passed away at 38 years old. According to RXMuscle, Wynn died earlier this week after a successful career on stage in the Wheelchair division. The cause of death has not been revealed at this time. Wynn began his career as an amateur bodybuilder before earning his Pro Card in 2007.

Link

Mike Quinn, a bodybuilder, dies at 61 years old

June 1, 2023

The news that bodybuilder and fitness model Mike Quinn has died at the age of 61 has shocked the fitness community, which is grieving the death of one of its own. He passed away due to an unexpected heart attack on March 17. Quinn won multiple championships throughout his career and was well renowned for his outstanding physique and commitment to training. He started working out when he was only 11 and competed well into his fifties.

Link

Burlington restaurant owner Ahmed Omar dies unexpectedly

August 15, 2023

Burlington, VT- Ahmed Omar, chef-owner of Kismayo Kitchen in Burlington, died on Sunday at his New North End home, according to Yusuf Ali, president of the Islamic Society of Vermont, of which Omar was a devoted member. Ali said he had no further details about the cause of death at this time.  Omar, who was in his mid-thirties, was the married father of two young daughters. Before Omar became a restaurateur, he worked as a personal trainer and online health coach. He was a competitive bodybuilder and continued to prioritize his physical health while also aiming to help and inspire others to do the same.

No cause of death reported.

Lin

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Top Doctor bullet-proofs what we said prior that the COVID Ventilators did NOT save lives! it killed!: “We Were Told To Deliberately Kill Millions of COVID Patients Using Ventilators”; see my prior

substacks and new report by Bishofsky; ““That’s so little oxygen to the point where if you took the patient off of it, they’re gonna be fine,” “But there was this rush to intubate these patients”

Dr. Paul AlexanderSep 24

READ IN APP

See new report:

‘They just wanted to intubate them and put them on remdesivir.’ ‘Many, many thousands of patients died because of this rush to early intubation’.

‘Intubation should be a last resort’

Bishofsky tried to convince doctors that “this wasn’t the right thing to do.” He explained:

“When I started my career in 1999 I went to … a huge symposium talking about the risks of intubation — the risks of using a ventilator — and even back then it was known that intubation should be a last resort.

“At that time, they were reporting a 25% increase in mortality of patients that were getting intubated and put on a ventilator. And now we know during COVID it was upwards of 80 to 85% of people that were on ventilators passed away.”’

‘Millions of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 were deliberately murdered at the behest of the government by being hooked up to ventilators, while being denied life-saving medication such as ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine and vitamin D, according to top doctor Mark Bishofsky.

EVOL NEWS

SLAY NEWS

Covid-Vaccinated Children Have Damaged Immune Systems, Study WarnsA disturbing peer-reviewed study has found that children who received Covid mRNA “vaccines” have damaged immune systems.READ MORE

RFK Jr: CDC Secretly Admits Vaccines Cause AutismFormer independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has exposed a secret “emergency meeting” with the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).READ MORE

Illegal Alien Arrested for Killing Young Musician during Fatal Hit-and-Run in PennsylvaniaPolice have arrested an illegal alien for killing a young musician in Pennsylvania during a fatal hit-and-run crash.READ MORE

CNN Data Guru Warns Democrats ‘Kamala Harris Is Struggling Among Voters of Color’ in Sun BeltCNN data guru Harry Enten has warned the Democrats that their presidential nominee Kamala Harris is “struggling” among black and Latino voters in the Sun Belt.READ MORE

Criminal Investigation into NYC’s Democrat Mayor Expands to 5 More Countries, Including ChinaThe criminal investigations into New York City’s Democrat Mayor Eric Adams and his administration have now expanded to include five more countries, including Communist China.READ MORE

Confused Biden Snaps at World Leaders during Meeting: ‘Who’s Next?!’Lame-duck President Joe Biden appeared confused and irritated during a meeting with the leaders of Japan, Australia, and India at his home in Wilmington, Delaware.READ MORE

Trump Admits He’s Worried about His Family’s Safety amid Assassination AttemptsPresident Donald Trump has revealed that he worries about his family’s safety, even if he doesn’t talk about it much.READ MORE

Leftist Historian Provokes Would-Be Assassins on MSNBC: ‘Doomsday Scenario’ If Trump WinsDemocrats and their allies appear to have no intention of toning down their aggressive rhetoric toward President Donald Trump following two failed assassination attempts.READ MORE

Ukraine’s Zelensky Accused of ‘Election Interference’ after Campaigning for Democrats in Swing StateUkraine’s President Volodymyr  Zelensky has been accused of “election interference” after he emerged in the swing state of Pennsylvania to campaign for Democrats and smear the Republican ticket.READ MORE

Singer Usher Claims His X Account ‘Got Hacked’ as Posts about Diddy Mysteriously Deleted amid ArrestSeveral posts about disgraced music mogul Sean “Diddy” Combs mysteriously disappeared from the X account of singer Usher last week.READ MORE

Corporate Media Begins Calling Out Kamala Harris for Refusing to Answer Questions: ‘Awful and Empty’Several corporate media figures are beginning to turn on Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris as the vice president refuses to give straight answers regarding her policy plans.READ MORE

Rapper 50 Cent Explains Why Voters Are Backing Trump: ‘He Says Fight – People Identify with It’Rapper 50 Cent has explained why he believes growing numbers of voters are throwing their support behind President Donald Trump.READ MORE

Trump Now Beating Kamala Harris in 3 Battleground States, New York Times Poll ShowsA new poll from the left-wing New York Times shows President Donald Trump beating Democrat nominee Kamala Harris in multiple battleground states.READ MORE

EVOL

LATEST NEWS:

LATEST NEWS:

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

CDC Admits Covid Vaccines Wipe 24 Years from LifespanThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has made the shocking admission that Covid mRNA vaccines reduce every vaccinated person’s lifespan by a staggering 24 years.READ THE FULL REPORT

Newly Released Video Shows NBA Superstar Kyrie Irving Being Targeted by a Fanatical ‘COVID Policy Architect’In a shocking revelation, Dr. Jay Varma, the man behind New York City’s strict COVID response, was caught on camera admitting to targeting basketball player Kyrie Irving for not getting vaccinated.READ THE FULL REPORT

Alexis Lorenze’s Nightmare Injury: Shocking Vaccine Horror Revealed Amid Media Blackout (VIDEO)Alexis Lorenze, a 23-year-old woman, suffered a devastating injury after receiving three vaccines at once.READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH LIVE: President Trump speaks in Indiana, Pennsylvania at 7PM ETPresident Trump will be speaking tonight in the borough of Indiana which is in western Pennsylvania.READ THE FULL REPORT

NYC’s former Covid czar FIRED after undercover video revealed scandalous behaviorLast week we showed you Steven Crowder’s undercover video where New York City’s former COVID chief admitted to scandalous behavior during the COVID pandemic.READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

“If Hezbollah Collapses, It Opens The Curtains On Israel Vs. Iran”

Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024 – 10:45 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

“Is our presidents and economists learning?”

President George W. Bush once bewailed: “Rarely is the question asked: ‘Is our children learning?’” With radical ideas thrown around by Harris and Trump pre-election, economists are asking the same about presidents. However, presidents can rightly ask it about economists.

Trump just underlined his protectionist plans for “ultra-low taxes and regulations” zones, appointing a “manufacturing ambassador” to persuade firms to relocate to the US, and that “American workers will no longer be worried about losing your jobs to foreign nations. Instead, foreign nations will be worried about losing their jobs to America.” Economists are appalled. Yet they have no problems when an emerging market sets up low-tax and regulation zones and lobbies Western firms to close factories and move production there, with a loss of jobs. This is celebrated as “FDI”. Of course, economists say one case involves higher prices, and the other lower prices. In short, the morality of targeting other states’ industries and jobs revolves around price, not value (or values). That’s cold, hard realpolitik logic for the liberal humanist West, which never applies it to how one treats one’s own family: politically, the issue is then how one defines ‘family’.

Yet protectionism was staggeringly successful for the US in the past; and Germany; and Europe; Japan; South Korea; and China – all of them used it to climb the development ladder. To presume all you get from tariffs is inflation is to argue the US should today be solely the seller of commodities it was in the 18th century; Europe should be buying British goods and selling them food as the UK industrialised first; and Japan, South Korea, and China should be specialists in rice, not tech. You can see how ridiculous these arguments are, and we are all better off that they aren’t, even if via protectionism. Yes, tariffs can be a “tax on consumers” if you assume nothing changes but price. However, if they generate higher or better-paid employment, and increase production to attain economies of scale, tariffs can be moderately inflationary and a major stimulus to industrial growth.

Today we get a Harris speech to put flesh on the fish-like skeleton of her economic plan: the same Biden-era strategic US tariffs on China(?) – in which case, the ‘strategic materials fallacy’ says far more controls will follow, like the ban on Chinese EV software, a de facto ban on Chinese EVs; $25,000 for first-time homebuyers – when tried in Australia, this pushed up house prices by the same amount; a $50,000 tax benefit for SMEs; and actions against “price gouging”.

On prices, economists are again appalled. The same people who think lower prices are better than high, have no problems if concentrated corporate power ensures higher prices become embedded because they conveniently assume oligopolies can’t happen absent government. Of course, economic history, and radical leftwing thinkers like Adam Smith, are clear that private oligopolies do happen, and governments can break them up, and prices fall when they do. However, anti-trust is a slow, contested process in a democracy. The faster route is direct price controls, as also advocated by Trump on credit card rates no higher than 10%. Such Diocletian methods could mean goods shortages that many emerging markets are used to experiencing.

We are days away from the US east coast port strike call that could paralyze logistics. Economists’ Q4 consensus forecasts don’t show screwed-up goods availability and pricing, and markets think we solved our supply chain issues when we just got lower demand for goods.

One of the US Navy’s few oilers just ran aground. This means a key part of the hegemonic US fleet can’t refuel at sea: do the military math vs. rising geopolitical tensions, and as the US has already lost effective control of the Red Sea and Suez Canal. Worse, new oilers won’t be built for years due to low US capacity and high US debt and bureaucracy.

Middle East tensions will remain high. Israel has shifted strategy against Hezbollah and will continue to strike it until the militia retreats from southern Lebanon and declares it will stop firing missiles. While neither side wants war, the logic flows in only that direction. Israel will hit harder until Hezbollah buckles, which leads to war; Hezbollah and/or Iran may respond on a scale that triggers war – indeed at time of writing, warning alarms just went off in Tel Aviv; and if Hezbollah collapses, it opens the curtains on Israel vs. Iran.

The West has no leadership on this issue. Europe is divided, as usual, the UK PM just showed his geopolitical gravitas by declaring that Hamas must “release the sausages”, and the US is AWOL due to the looming election. The US also still has an inverse Vegetius stance: an unnamed senior official just stated, “I can’t recall, at least in recent memory, a period in which an escalation or intensification led to a fundamental de-escalation and led to profound stabilization of the situation.” Tell that to Putin, or those advising Ukraine, and how about Israel destroying Iraq’s nuclear program in 1981? Indeed, the US just accepting BRICS-member the UAE as a major defense partner might be a precursor for what happens with the Saudis. In which case, Israel hitting Hezbollah hard, rather than shaking its hand, has likely been a key motivator for a shift in some regional states’ geostrategy/economic decision-making.

Markets “isn’t learning” anything about China either. Bloomberg describes the PBOC as unleashing “one of the most daring policy campaigns in decades.” The 20bps, 0.5% RRR, and mortgage rate cuts that have all failed to help so far? The share buybacks and funds to brokers vs. collateral of unwanted stocks to help buy other unwanted stocks? Markets who don’t read Marx isn’t learning “fictitious” vs. “productive” capital, and that only the latter matters to Beijing. With the US banning its EVs and talking tariffs, the US Navy down an oiler, and the Middle East aflame, Chinese geostrategists would of course argue their priority now is a stock rally: sorry, I mean American. In reality, China just fired a dummy ICBM into the Pacific, making even financial market headlines for a moment. Yet if the Fed keeps thinking about fictitious things, not US Navy oilers, a Chinese strategy could, hypothetically, be real stimulus which pushes up commodity prices and US inflation again.

As all this all plays out, Bloomberg is seeing chatter of not just another Fed 50bps cut, meaning in weeks we’ve moved from 50/50 to 50-50, but of emergency intra-meeting cuts! Some people isn’t learning about politics, or economic statecraft, or logistics, or oilers, or geopolitics, or the 1970s, it seems.

Allow me to finish with another Bushism more logical than the above Bloombergism: “There’s an old saying in Tennessee—I know it’s in Texas, probably in Tennessee—that says, ‘Fool me once, shame on…shame on you. Fool me—you can’t get fooled again.'”

Yes, you can, it seems.

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

VENEZUELA

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1118 DOWN 0.0007

USA/ YEN 144,40 UP 1.448 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE TRYING TO RE ESTABLISH

GBP/USA 1.3369 DOWN .0057

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3438 UP. 0017 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 17 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 33.18 PTS OR 1.16%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 128.54 PTS OR 0.68%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.15%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 128.54 PTS OR 0.68%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 33.18 PTS OR 1.16%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .15%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 70.33 POINTS OR 0.19%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE GREEN

Gold very early morning trading: 2655.50

silver:$31.82

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 100.21 UP 6 BASIS POINTS FROM  TUESAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.796%  UP 5 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.821% DOWN 0 AND 0/ 100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.979 UP 4 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.529 UP 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1885 UP 5 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1191 UP .0002 OR 2 basis points

USA/Japan: 144.17 UP 1.22 OR YEN IS DOWN 122 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.0175 UP 3 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0022 OR 22 BASIS pts  to 1.3443

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.0269 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.0264)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.12 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.821

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 3 in basis points from MONDAY at  3.773% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.116 UP 3 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.539 UP 2  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2662,75

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.00

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  WEDNESAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 14.06 PTS OR 0.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 78.13OR 0.41%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN. 38.39 PTS OR 0.50%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 44.40 OR 0.38%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 40.42 OR 0.12%

WTI Oil price  71.48 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  75.05 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  92.47 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  32/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1885 UP 4 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0175 UP 4 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.023 UP 5 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.796 UP 4

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1126 DOWN 0.0065 OR 65 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3317 DOWN 0.0109 OR basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  3.992 UP 3 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.819

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.77 UP 1,827 DOWN 183 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3485 UP 0.0064 CDN dollar DOWN 64 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 69,74

Brent OIL:  73.50

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 6 BASIS pts to 3.793

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.142%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT  3.561

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.038 UP 8 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.814 UP 7 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 100.68 UP 53 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.17 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  92.50 UP 0 AND  30100 roubles

GOLD  2,660.003:30 PM

SILVER: 31.83 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 293.47PTS OR 0.70%

NASDAQ UP 27,76 PTS OR 0.14%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.58 UP 0.19 PTS OR 1,23%

GLD: $245,73 DOWN 0.34OR 0.14%

SLV/ $29.04 DOWN 0.32OR 1.09%

end

USA AFFAIRS

TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM

Stocks, Bonds, Crypto, & Crude Plunge Ahead Of Powell/PCE

Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Markets are reversing some of the positive momentum seen over the past few sessions. The Nasdaq outperformed on the day (thanks to NVDA & META) but only just managed to close green. The rest of the US majors were red with Small Caps the biggest loser…

…albeit without any clear drivers aside from potential anxiety ahead of Powell’s speech and GDP tomorrow and PCE on Friday.

The vol market is taking note…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s Chris Hussey notes that under the surface, markets seem to be leaning into a combination of traditionally defensive and secularly growing pockets of the market, with Utilities, Tech, Communication Services, and Staples offsetting declines in more procyclical areas.

Source: Bloomberg

Yields on most US Treasury durations are also higher, a potentially another signal of investors more defensive posture…

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s10s) continues to bear-steepen – now at its steepest since June 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

But, as Hussey notes, with little new news to trade on, it’s hard to see what, exactly, is behind the move.

Another take on today’s price action – outperformance from stocks related to power demand, AI, plus higher 10-year yields – is increased confidence in the economy over the longer term.

Mag7 stocks extended yesterday’s gains but faded a little as the day wore on…

Source: Bloomberg

NVDA rallied notably but up to a key resistance level…

We also note that NVDA topped $3 trillion market cap once again (GOOGL and AMZN back above $2 trillion)…

Source: Bloomberg

Perhaps more notably, the machines were unable to manufacture some momentum in most-shorted stocks today, as they continue to languish in a narrow range…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading floor noted that it was skewed small to buy with volumes quiet but S&P top of book (liquidity) bouncing back to much better levels ($11m+).

• Both HFs and LOs net for sale.
• We continue to see risk off flows on our trading desk.
• HF covers (macro) by L/O passive trimming (singles) into strength.

Before we leave equity-land, we note that VIX ended higher today, holding above the 15 handle…

The dollar was on fire today, erasing the post-China stimulus weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Yuan rejected 7.00/USD and faded…

Source: Bloomberg

…but despite the dollar strength, gold managed small gains to a new record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Some context for gold vs USD…

Source: Bloomberg

The strong dollar did weigh on crude prices which sank back below $70 (WTI) despite strong inventory draws (erasing all of the post-China-stimmy gains)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto pumped and dumped, with Bitcoin testing down to $63,000 (after topping $64,500)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, US Sovereign risk remains extremely elevated relative to the last few months…

Source: Bloomberg

Is crypto (and gold) starting to sense something’s breaking?

MORNING TRADING

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

Despite Tumbling Mortgage Rates, US New Home Sales Dropped In August

Wednesday, Sep 25, 2024 – 10:09 AM

New home sales in the US tumbled 4.7% MoM in August (though slightly less than the 5.3% drop expected) after July’s huge 10.3% MoM jump (revised down from +10.6%)

Source: Bloomberg

On a YoY basis, new home sales were up 9.8% (but down to 716k SAAR on the month), continuing to dramatically decouple from pending- and existing-home sales…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, despite tumbling mortgage rates and soaring mortgage applications, sales dropped MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

Now, with The Fed pivoting into an easing cycle, will home prices start surging once again?

Source: Bloomberg

Have no fear, Kamala has a plan for that…

III  USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES

The Harris plan to create more housing actually creates shortages and higher prices for homes

(Mish Shedlock)

The Kamala Harris Plan To Create More Housing Shortages

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 07:20 AM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

If you want more shortages, then artificially stimulate demand. That’s exactly what Harris proposes, following the lead of AOC.

The Kamala Harris Plan

The National Low Income Housing Coalition discusses the Harris Campaign Plans to Lower Housing Costs.

To address the housing shortage and bring down prices for renters and homeowners alike, the Harris campaign’s plan calls for a historic expansion of the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) and the first-ever tax incentive for homebuilders who build starter homes sold to first-time homebuyers. Building upon the Biden-Harris administration’s proposed $20 billion innovation fund, the campaign proposes a $40 billion fund that would support local innovations in housing supply solutions, catalyze innovative methods of construction financing, and empower developers and homebuilders to design and build affordable homes.

The campaign plan cites the Biden-Harris administration’s ongoing actions to support the lowest-income renters, including its actions to expand rental assistance for veterans and other low-income renters, increase housing supply for people experiencing homelessness, enforce fair housing laws, and hold corporate landlords accountable.

To make homeownership attainable, Vice President Harris’s proposal would provide up to $25,000 in down payment assistance for first-time homebuyers who have paid their rent on time for two years. First-generation homeowners – those whose parents did not own homes – would receive more generous assistance.

A Wall Street Journal Rebuttal

Please consider The Kamala Harris Plan for More Housing Shortages

A signature feature of Kamala Harris’s housing plan is providing first-time home buyers with $25,000 in down-payment support, at a total cost of $100 billion over four years. Absent a severe recession, this policy is all but certain to lead to higher home prices. That’s because the four million program recipients would become price setters for all buyers in their neighborhoods.

According to the American Enterprise Institute’s Housing Center, 77% of all home purchases would be subject to this home buyer “tax,” causing the price of these homes to increase by 3.6%. Over four years the increase in home prices would total $175 billion, more than the $100 billion cost of the program. The price increase would show up in higher revenue for sellers, thus acting as a wealth transfer to them.

The plan’s defects don’t stop there. Ms. Harris’s proposed tax incentive for building starter homes is intended to increase housing supply substantially. This approach has led to significant market distortions on at least two occasions.

The Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, with its easy credit terms and substantial subsidies, resulted in a surge of housing permits in 1971 and 1972. By 1975 the housing boom had reversed, leaving lasting scars on cities including Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland. Similarly, the Federal Housing Enterprises Financial Safety and Soundness Act of 1992, which set affordable-housing goals, combined with Bill Clinton’s National Homeownership Strategy, led to credit liberalization in the runup to the 2008-09 financial crisis. Housing permits doubled, from 1.1 million in 1992 to 2.2 million in 2005, but then collapsed by 73% in 2009. In the aftermath, millions faced foreclosure, and the resulting housing-supply deficit still afflicts us today.

Without such dangerous credit easing, it is likely that Ms. Harris’s proposal would provide incentives largely for new homes that would have been built anyway, with any incremental construction being unevenly distributed across the nation. This would cause further imbalances between supply and demand.

History offers a cautionary tale against such federal interference in the housing market: From the 1930s to 2008, at least 43 housing, urban-renewal and community-development programs were signed into law. Despite these laws’ lofty goals, these initiatives consistently failed to make housing more affordable.

An Idiot’s Proposal

It is economic idiocy to believe that Giving people $25,000 to buy a house will do anything but raise prices.

On the supply side, the houses would either have been built anyway or the new construction will be shoddy.

We have had dozens of “affordable housing” programs over the years and if we include state and local efforts the plans number in the hundreds if not thousands.

Everyone of those plans raised prices or caused an economic crash.

Let’s now discuss the Harris plan to “increase housing supply for people experiencing homelessness“

Harris did not put a cost to that. We can look no further than California for the reason, as well as the likelihood of success.

A New High-Rise Building Will House the LA Homeless in $600,000 Units

Please recall my June 19, post A New High-Rise Building Will House the LA Homeless in $600,000 Units

A grand opening of Weingart Tower will have 278 units to shelter the homeless. Hooray!?

Beyond Insane Math

NBC news reports There are 75,518 people are homeless in the county, and 46,260 in the city of Los Angeles, an increase from the 69,144 in the county, and 41,980 the city from 2022 as of Jan 23, 2023.

$600,000 * 278 = $166,800,000. That’s $166.8 million. And that does not include free property taxes, case workers, maintenance, utilities, insurance, food, police, clothes, doormen, or medical care.

If the county were to shelter the 75,518 homeless, the cost would be $45,310,800,000. That’s $45.3 billion, again excluding free property taxes, case workers, maintenance, utilities, insurance, food, police, clothes, doormen, or medical care.

And it would not stop there. Every homeless person in the state would move their tent to LA to participate.

Affordable Housing

This dear woke fans is what’s known as “affordable housing”.

Taxes have to rise to accommodate such stupidity. It makes me angry just thinking about this. For what? Does the city think this will cure the homeless problem?

Most of these people are some combination of drug addicts, alcoholics, mentally unstable, and physically unfit to ever work. And even if they did work, they would not be living in $600,000 units.

California Proposes Restraining Orders to Stop Thieves

More and more headlines look as if they are from the Babylon Bee.

On June 17,I commented Hoot of the Day: California Proposes Restraining Orders to Stop Thieves

What’s going on in California is beyond insane.

Also see Twenty Percent of California Lives in Poverty, What’s Going On?

On a cost-adjusted basis, California leads the nation in percentage living in poverty. Blame the Progressive oligarchs like Governor Newsom.

Green New Housing Deal

In case case you don’t see where this is headed, let me spell it out for you:

Harris has adopted AOC’s New Green Deal for Public Housing

My hoot of the day is AOC and Bernie Sanders have teamed up for a new green housing deal. I explain where we are and what’s on deck.

How Much Would This Cost?

AOC says the bill would invest up to $234 billion over a decade into “weatherizing, electrifying, and modernizing our public housing”.

Don’t kid yourself, the whole policy would cost many trillions of dollars.

The Harris sucker pitch is to start out small then add trillions of dollars more when she discovers free $25,000 down payments were not quite enough to reduce costs.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

END

TUCKER CARLSON….

SWAMP STORIES

Jan 6 was nothing but garbage

New Transcripts Prove President Trump’s Request For More Troops On January 6th Was Denied

WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 02:05 PM

Authored by Eric Lendrum via American Greatness,

After years of mainstream media accusations that former President Donald Trump did nothing to protect the U.S. Capitol on January 6th, new transcripts reveal that the then-president was the only one who wanted extra security, only for his requests to be refused.

As reported by Just The News, the transcripts show that President Trump ordered officials to “do whatever it takes” to protect the Capitol on the day that the electoral votes for the 2020 election were being certified, out of fear of protests against the suspicious and probably fraudulent election results.

The transcripts were recorded during interviews with top government officials in the aftermath of January 6th by the Pentagon’s inspector general. One of the key witnesses was Mark Milley, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. During his interviews, Milley admitted that during a meeting on January 3rd, President Trump had already approved the use of the National Guard and active-duty troops to maintain law and order in the nation’s capital on the 6th.

“The President just says, ‘Hey look at this. It’s going to be a large amount of protesters coming here on the 6th, and make sure that you have sufficient National Guard or Soldiers to make sure it’s a safe event,’” Milley recalled to the inspector general. Milley then said that Christopher Miller, who was acting Secretary of Defense at the time, assured the president of security plans for that day: “Miller responds by saying, ‘Hey, we’ve got a plan, and we’ve got it covered.’ And that’s about it.”

Later in the same interview, Milley again confirmed that President Trump was the one who insisted on higher security.

“It was just what I just described, which was, ‘Hey, I don’t care if you use Guard, or soldiers, active-duty soldiers, do whatever you have to do,” Milley continued. “Just make sure it’s safe.”

However, when Miller was interviewed by the inspector general, he confessed to refusing to use additional security for fear of political repercussions.

“There was absolutely — there is absolutely no way I was putting U.S. military forces at the Capitol, period,” said Miller at the time. The former acting secretary went on to say that officials instead utilized an interagency process to come up with an alternative plan that would delegate some DC National Guard troops to the job of directing traffic, but not to actually guard the Capitol; this proposal was suggested by Washington D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser (D-D.C.).

“The operational plan was this, let’s take the D.C. National Guard, keep them away from the Capitol,” Miller explained. “Let’s put — the request, it wasn’t my request, Bowser and her Metropolitan Police Department were like ‘Let’s put D.C. National Guard on traffic control points and at the Metro stations to free up credentialed law-enforcement officers that can go out and arrest people.’”

The transcripts of the interviews were released by House Administration Oversight Subcommittee Chairman Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.). The bombshell revelations vindicate President Trump, and raise even more questions about the roles that officials like Milley, Miller, and Bowser played in the lead-up to the peaceful protest which went inside the Capitol, which has since been widely and falsely described as an “insurrection.”

KING REPORT

The King Report September 25, 2024 Issue 7334

Independent View of the News

China will cut reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points, PBOC chief (Pan) says https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/chinas-central-bank-chief-set-to-hold-press-conference-days-after-fed-rate-cut.html   PBOC to Cut 7-day Reverse Repo Rate to 1.5% from 1.7%: BBG 21:10 ET   PBOC Says RRR Cut to Release 1T Yuan of Liquidity – BBG 21:13 ET   China to Allow Funds, Brokers to Tap PBOC Funding to Buy Stocks – BBG 21:35 ET   China to Cut Minimum Downpayment Ratio for Second Homes to 15% (from 30%) – DJ   China Plans at Least 500B Yuan (~$70.6B) of Liquidity Support to Stocks – BBG  22:36 ET   @HAOHONG_CFA: Pan said, “If 500bn is not enough, then we can do another 500bn.”  Essentially, the PBoC is telling you to load up on stocks. The market is finally jolt back to life…   China Studies Setting Up Stock Stabilization Fund (ALA US?) – BBG 22:49 ET   China Mulls Stock Stability Fund, Unlocks $113 Billion from PBOC – BBG 3:33 ET The People’s Bank of China will set up a swap facility allowing securities firms, funds and insurance companies to tap liquidity from the central bank to purchase equities, Governor Pan Gongsheng said…     The move will unleash at least 800 billion yuan ($113 billion) of initial liquidity support…   The CSI soared 4.33% and the Shanghai Comp closed +4.15% on the massive Chinese stimuli.   Conference Board: US Consumer Confidence Fell in SeptemberConsumer Confidence Weakened as Consumers Worry About JobsConference Board index dropped 6.9 points in September (to 98.7, biggest drop since Aug 2021)Expectations for the next six months declined… to 81.7 (from 86.3)Current Conditions dropped to 124.3 (from 134.6)The drop in confidence was steepest for consumers aged 35 to 54…Despite slower overall inflation and declines in some goods prices, average 12-month inflation expectations increased to 5.2% in September…30.9% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” down from 32.7% in August.18.3% of consumers said jobs were “hard to get,” up from 16.8%.https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/press/CCI-Sep-2024   BBG notes the Conference Board’s “Labor metric fell an eighth month, longest streak since 2008.”   @JeffWeniger: Look at this waterfall in the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicators divided by Lagging Indicators. We have seen 8 plunges like this since the 1960s and each one flagged a recession. https://x.com/JeffWeniger/status/1838690956331163975   Due to China’s ginormous stimulus program, USZs sank to a daily low of 123 29/32 (-1 7/32) at 8:35 ET.  They rallied to 124 31/32 at 12:19 ET on the recessionary September Consumer Confidence but remained negative until the afternoon.  USZs turned a tad positive from 14:21 ET to 14:25 ET on dealer manipulation after the auction of $69B of 2-year notes.  The 3.52% yield matched the WI.  USZs   Gold soared to another all-time high; gasoline and industrial commodities soared; the dollar sank.   Mr. Bond has been on a six-session losing streak since the Fed’s jumbo 50bp rate cut.  $2T+ US deficit spending, a jumbo Fed rate cut, ginormous reserves in the system, and China’s panicky fiscal and monetary stimuli make Mr. Bond very fearful that inflation is being baked into the system.   Fed up with Fed Talk? Fact-checking Central Banking Fairy Tales! – Aswath Damodaran of NYU Rates will fall into one of three buckets – market-set interest rates, rates indexed to market-set rates and institutionally set rates. None of these rates are set by the Federal Reserve, thus rendering the “Fed sets interest rates” as myth…     The rates all seem to move in sync, though market-set rates move more than institution-set rates, which, in turn, are more volatile than the Fed Funds rate. The reason that this is a superficial test is because these rates all move contemporaneously, and there is nothing in this graph that supports the notion that it is the Fed that is leading the change. In fact, it is entirely possible…that the Fed’s actions on the Fed Funds rate are in response to changes in market rates, rather than the other way around…     Market-set rates ultimately are composed of two elements: an expected inflation rate and an expected real interest rate, reflecting real economic growth… As you can see, in September 2024, the intrinsic riskfree rate is still higher than the 10-year treasury bond rate, suggesting that there will be no precipitous drop in interest rates in the coming months. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/09/fed-up-with-fed-talk-central-banks.html   Robert Armstrong op-ed in FT: What if the Fed doesn’t matter? (Cites above blog)     What if the central bank rate policy is always a meaningless or near-meaningless sideshow in economies and markets? What if policy rates are (to use the vocabulary of the pretentious philosophy graduate student I was 25 years ago) mostly epiphenomenal — that is, accompanying important changes, rather than causing them?… https://www.ft.com/content/dcbfd5a3-be50-4556-ab7e-3021ed86cc68   So, the Economy Now Depends on Stocks Which Depend on Front-Running the Fed (by the Top 10 percent) –And This Is Fine? – Is an economy based on the wealth effect generated by front-running the front-runners really that stable?  https://charleshughsmith.substack.com/p/so-the-economy-now-depends-on-stocks   July FHFA House Price Index 0.1% m/m, 0.2% expected, June revised to 0.0% from -0.1%   July S&P CoreLogic 20-City Home Price Index 0.27% m/m & 5.92% y/y, 0.4% m/m & 5.9% y/y expected, June revised to 0.47% m/m & 6.54% y/y from 0.42% m/m & 6.47% y/y; US National HPI 4.96% y/y, June revised to 5.50% from 5.42% y/y   ESZs traded mostly negative during Asian trading even after the Chinese stimuli announcements.  ESZs turned positive after the 1 ET Nikkei close.  ESZs hit a daily high of 5793.50 at 4:21 ET.  They then sank to 5769.25 at 7:09 ET.  The rally for the NYSE opening took ESZs to 5787.75 at 9:25 ET.   The Conference Board’s ugly September Consumer Confidence sank stocks.  ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 5754.75 at 10:37 ET.  Inculcated dip buying generated aggressive buying that eventually pushed ESZs to 5791.25 at 12:41 ET.  ESZs dipped to 5773.50 at 14:30 ET, but quickly rebounded to 5785.75 at 14:40 ET.  ESZs then went inert until a manipulation pushed ESZs to a daily high of 5794.25 at 15:59 ET.   Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied sharply; NVDA soared because its CEO is done selling shares. USZs rebounded sharply after an early tumble (but were -4/32 at NYSE close)   Negative aspects of previous session Gold hit an all-time high; the dollar declined smartly; USZs declined; TLT 6th consecutive decline Gasoline, oil, and industrial commodities soared on China’s stimuli. Though NVDA soared 3.97%, the NY Fang+ Index only rallied 0.51%.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will Mr. Bond be right about inflation?  If Mr. Bond is right, what will happen to the Fed?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5722.42 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5735.32; 5698.99   @ABCNewsLive: Pres. Biden spoke in front of the U.N. General Assembly on Tuesday, emphasizing his support for Ukraine and calling for peace in the Middle East.. Pres. Biden just wrapped his farewell speech to world leaders at the United Nations General Assembly as he seeks to cement the legacy of his foreign policy..  https://x.com/ABCNewsLive/status/1838701889828864428   @ABC:. Tuesday’s speech marked one of his last high-profile chances to rally world leaders.  https://t.co/SBk9soqFEW   @ggreenwald: Democrats spent 8 years whining about “foreign interference in our sacred elections.” Now they’re campaigning with Ukraine’s president-for-life in key swing states.  Recall that the Ukrainians also worked with the DNC in 2016 to help elect Hillary: Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire  https://www.politico.com/story/2017/01/ukraine-sabotage-trump-backfire-233446   Failed Trump Assassin Had a List of Everywhere Trump Would Be August to October Routh’s apparent knowledge of intimate details of Trump’s schedule has led many to question where he got it from, with Rep. Eli Crane (ex-SEAL) even suggesting there could be a mole within the Secret Service who is intent on seeing Trump killed… https://modernity.news/2024/09/24/failed-trump-assassin-had-a-list-of-everywhere-trump-would-be-august-to-october/   Diddy’s bodyguard says there are tapes of politicians at ‘freak offs’ and claims rapper ‘learned’ from other music moguls – ‘They was heavy into the drugs, they was heavy into beating women, and doing things at that crazy stage that’s going to make him think he can get away with the same things that they was getting away with back then.’… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13885699/diddy-bodyguard-videos-politicians-freak-offs.html   @KanekoaTheGreat: JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: “If you do not control the borders, you are going to destroy our country… Now that they are sending migrants into New York… all my super liberal friends realize what a problem it is.”  https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1838637064537145788   @TrumpWarRoom: Trump: “Here is the deal that I will be offering to every major company and manufacturer on earth…”  “I will give you the lowest taxes, the lowest energy costs, the lowest regulatory burden, and free access to the best and biggest market on the planet— but ONLY if you make your product here in America and hire American workers for the job.” “If you don’t make your product here, then you will have to pay a very substantial tariff when you send your product into the United States.”   Today – Despite the massive Chinese stimulus package, US stocks struggled except for the rebounding DJTA.  Industrial commodities and precious metals rallied sharply.  Stocks look tired and Mr. Bond is not happy.  Invest and trade accordingly!   Recession indicators are blinking and Mr. Bond smells inflation.  This is worse than stagflation.   Expected economic data and events: Aug New Home Sales 770k; Fed Gov. Kugler 16:00 ET   NQUs are -5.00; ESUs are -2.75; and USUs are -2/32 at 20:15 ET in subdued trading.   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5522; 100-day MA: 5449; 150-day MA: 5342; 200-day MA: 5212 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,686; 100-day MA: 39,919; 150-day MA: 39,530; 200-day MA: 39.093 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5732.93 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5342.47 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5563.90 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5699.09 triggers a sell signal   @TrumpWarRoom: When NPR asked Kamala about the big jump in housing prices and how to address the lack of affordable housing under the Harris-Biden administration, she said “her mom was a renter.” (Rent costs are up 22.5% under Kamala Harris) https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1838585930573119705     CNBC: Do you believe Americans deserve to know specifics about Kamala’s economic plan? Should they know what their tax rate is going to be? Harris co-chair (Dem Sen.) Chris Coons: “She’s laid out a broad vision.”  CNBC: So… Coons: “I can’t tell you exactly…” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1838560542044168215   @RealSaavedra: Cardinal Dolan on Kamala Harris snubbing the Catholic community by skipping the Al Smith charity dinner: “This hasn’t happened in 40 years since Walter Mondale turned down the invitation. And remember, he lost 49 out of 50 states.”  https://t.co/XjOubeFwhY   Early mail-in voting data in three key states shows good news for Trump: expert The comments come as the Democratic edge in vote-by-mail requests has shrunk significantly in Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania… https://trib.al/LaJDo6F   CNN’s latest poll has Harris 48, Trump 47, which means Trump is doing far better than in 2016.  The poll shows that DJT has a huge lead on critical issues: Economy: Trump +11 (50%-39%), Immigration: Trump +14 (49%-35%), Foreign Policy: Trump +7 (47%-40%); Sept. 19-22, N-2,074 Likely Voters https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/politics/polls-trump-harris-presidential-election/index.html   CNN had Hillary +12 on 10/23/2016  https://www.cnn.com/2016/10/23/politics/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-presidential-polls/index.html   @ EricLDaugh: NEW NATIONAL polling update: Trump: 49.4% (+3.4), Harris: 46%; Rasmussen 5-day average | Sept. 17-19, 22-23 | N=1,852LV (Hillary won popular vote by 2.1 and easily lost EV)   Harris honeymoon is over: Sun Belt polls put Trump on path to presidency Donald Trump is sweeping Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, according to New York Times/Siena College polling conducted Sept. 1 to 21, reversing Harris’ leads in two of the states along the way… https://nypost.com/2024/09/23/us-news/harris-honeymoon-is-over-sunbelt-polls-put-trump-on-path-to-presidency/   NYT polls greatly understated Trump strength in 2016.  (92% change Hillary would win in 10/16) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html   @IAPolls2022: National poll by Quinnipiac: Trump: 48%, Harris: 47%; 1,728 LV, 9/19-22, Party ID: D32/R30, MoE: ±2.4%  https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3908   Quinnipiac is another poll that greatly underestimated Trump in 2016: Hillary +7 in 10/16. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us10192016_U29frgv.pdf   Quinnipiac in October 2020 had Biden +10.  https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3803   Gallup reports that for the first time in at least 32 years, more Americans identify as GOP (48) than Dem (45) in Q3 of a POTUS election year.  https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1838623742068691218/photo/1   Harris’ last-minute border visit shows her campaign knows ‘they have to do something,’ CNN host says – The VP is reportedly planning to visit the US southern border on Friday as polls show voters better trust Trump on immigration issue… https://www.foxnews.com/media/harris-last-minute-border-visit-shows-her-campaign-knows-they-have-do-something-cnn-host-says   @joma_gc: According to a source who was on a Harris-Walz campaign training call attended by veteran campaign strategist James Carville, Carville went absolutely BALLISTIC yelling expletives at two young Democrat staffers, including @0liviajulianna who works for the Collin Allred Senate campaign.    The fiery barrage of insults included “dumb fat b*tch” directed at Julianna, and “out of touch fag*ots” began when the young staffers presented Carville with some social media videos they’ve been working on to appeal to White male voters. Carville was not impressed by any of them, saying they lacked substance.     When a visibly shaken gay male staffer told Carville he needed to apologize for using the F word, Carville told him to take his camo hat and shove it up his ass before leaving the call. The joy is gone.   @charliekirk11: (Dem Sen.) Joe Manchin says “Shame on her” after Kamala Harris promises to gut the Senate filibuster to pass a national law on abortion after the issue was sent back to the states following Dobbs. Manchin now refuses to endorse Kamala Harris for president.   Dem Sen. Kirsten Sinema (AZ) also slammed Harris for pledging to end the filibuster: “Absolutely terrible, shortsighted idea.” https://x.com/CortesSteve/status/1838634164108825064/photo/2   @greg_price11: Kamala Harris told America on debate night that Goldman Sachs and the Wharton School of Business said her economic plan is better than Trump’s.  Both Goldman and Wharton have now come out and said that she was lying.  Not only did Wharton say that she lied. They said, “We did not find a positive impact on the economy from her plan in any future year.” https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1838696652720181754   Wharton Business School Shoots Down Harris’ Claim She’ll Strengthen Economy “We did not find a positive impact on the economy from her plan in any future year. The Trump plan does increase GDP for a few years but lowers by the end of the 10-year budget window,” a spokesperson for the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) said… https://www.newsweek.com/business-school-shoots-down-kamala-harris-claim-strengthen-economy-1957078   We noted last week that suddenly Hillary Clinton is visible and hurling ‘threat to democracy, Satan incarnate’ and other venomous slurs at Trump.  She surfaced again on Monday to issue those dire warnings about Trump again.  At a rally after the second assassination attempt on DJT, the former president said that he played nice in his first term and did NOT prosecute Hillary despite her numerous felonies.  Trump then said, ‘it will be different his time.’   @EndWokeness: Hillary Clinton on what should be done to Trump supporters after the election: “So many of those MAGA extremists take their marching orders from Donald Trump, who has no credibility left… He’s only in it for himself… At some point there needs to be a formal deprograming of the cult members…“  https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1838567994055606574   @libsoftiktok: Trump promises to shut down the Department of Education     “We spend more money (on education) per pupil than any other country by far, and yet we’re at the bottom of the list. Out of 40 we’re ranked about number 40. I’m going to close the Department of Education and move education back to the states.”   https://t.co/F1F8kq72iA   @RealAmVoice: Our hospitals and emergency rooms are being overrun by migrants who come up here because they (Harris) tell them to come up here! – President Trump https://t.co/SWf0sDrNGI   RFK Jr. says DOJ under Trump will launch RICO investigations into collusion between medical boards, medical journals and Big Pharma https://www.naturalnews.com/2024-09-23-rfk-trump-investigation-collusion-board-journals-pharma.html   @cspan: Q: “Do you commit to observing regular order in the certification process of the 2024 election, even if Kamala Harris beats Donald Trump?” @SpeakerJohnson: “Of course. If we have a free, fair and safe election we’re going to follow the Constitution. Absolutely.” https://x.com/cspan/status/1838587815103230111   @VigilantFox: RFK Jr. Exposes CDC’s Secret Meeting Admitting That Vaccines Cause Autism “The question is not really whether or not vaccines are causing harm. The question is, what harm are they causing?”  In a meeting known as Simpsonwood, the CDC discovered that kids who received the Hepatitis B vaccine had an 11-fold increased risk of developing autism when the shot was given in the first 30 days… The CDC panicked the first day of the meeting, saying things like, “Oh my God, the lawyers are going to come after us. Nobody can deny this. This is bulletproof. There’s no way to argue with this. This is real science. What are we going to do?”  However, “The second day they spent talking about how to hide it from the American public.“… https://x.com/VigilantFox/status/1838589977409491102   Agent investigating Trump assassination attempt at center of FBI retaliation, whistleblowers allege The 22-page letter transmitted Thursday by Empower Oversight provides further details about how the FBI, including Jeffrey Veltri, allegedly retaliated against several whistleblowers. https://justthenews.com/accountability/whistleblowers/monagent-investigating-trump-assassination-attempt-center-fbi   Ukrainian MP Accused of Bribery Flees to Romania https://www.barrons.com/news/ukrainian-mp-accused-of-bribery-flees-to-romania-fd018d52   Nancy Pelosi’s husband sold more than $500K worth of Visa stock — just weeks before DOJ’s antitrust lawsuit https://trib.al/DSYdQHr   “When a society loses its moral compass, it collapses from within.” – G.K. Chesterton

GREG HUNTER

(https://usawatchdog.com/un-takeover-with-chaos-crisis-alex-newman/

UN Takeover with Chaos & Crisis – Alex Newman

By Greg Hunter On September 25, 2024 In Political AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunters USAWatchdog.com 

Award-winning journalist Alex Newman, author of the popular book “Deep State” and the new best-selling book called “Indoctrinating Our Children to Death,” has been warning of plans by the United Nations for total tyrannical control of your life.  This past weekend at UN headquarters in New York City, all countries sealed the deal to hand over your freedoms to these demonic monsters.  Newman explains, ” This is probably the most important story of the decade.  Every world leader was there.  Joe Biden was there.  Almost every world leader on the planet was there.  Every president, king and dictator were all there, and they are all signing what the UN calls the “Pact for the Future.” This, in their own words, is going to morph the United Nations into the “UN 2.0.”  When you read the text of this agreement that was adopted by every government on earth. . . . every government agreed to this, and they said they are going to strengthen the UN.  They want the Secretary General of the UN to explore how he will take over everything during a complex global shock.  They want every nation in the world to be under the authority of the International Court of Justice.  They want international cooperation on taxes.  They want to tax high net worth individuals.  The list of things in here is absolutely mind blowing.  This was adopted by every government in the world. . . . Don’t take my word for it,  read the article yourself and see if I am not telling the truth.  They are turbo charging the UN. . . . Every area of your life is going to be affected by this agreement.  Until this was approved, there was not a peep from the fake media in the United States.”

How will the UN take control?  The World Economic Forum brought up where this was going in 2023.  They talked about a ‘polycrisis’ where you would have multiple crises or one polycrisis that would basically upend society and require a total transformation.  Where we are headed if these evil doers are not stopped is an economic crisis, a geopolitical crisis, possibly including a major conflict or war, a pandemic or health crisis of some sort with the World Health Organization (WHO), and a whole bunch of other simultaneous crises such as a cyber pandemic.”

If this is enacted, Newman says that the Secretary General of the UN would end up being a global dictator.  Some good news is 26 Republican governors say they will not comply with this agreement.  Newman says when more people learn about the agreement, that would never pass as a treaty, the more pushback is going to be generated.  The Lying Legacy Media lied by omission again on this important story that will affect everyone on the planet.  Newman thinks this is too stupid to be stupid.  Newman says, “I asked people at the summit why is the American media not covering this?  The only thing I can think of is there was a decision made at a high level that they did not want the American people to get wind of this because if they figure out what we are doing, there will be an outcry that you have never heard before.”

Where does President Trump fit in to all of this?  Newman contends, “They were able to dupe Trump on a couple of things like Warp Speed and the MCA, but they absolutely despise this man on what he did on the globalist front.  This creation of this global economic, political and religious system is the top priority.  Everything else are parts of the big picture which is creating this one world system. . . . All of this is to move us to this one world economic, political and religious system. . . . Trump got us out of the Trans Pacific Partnership, the Paris Agreement to deindustrialize America . . . Trump gets out of UNESCO, the UN education agency entirely focused on brainwashing your kids to be good global citizens in a one world totalitarian religious, political and economic order. . . . “When Trump was in office, he was a one-man wrecking ball to this global governance.”  Newman thinks this is a big reason why Trump is dodging assassination attempts.

Newman contends the Deep State wants people to give up and give into evil tyrannical control.  Newman says, “The Deep State wants to unleash all the chaos and crime they can to have crises on many fronts. . . .The former head of the CDC is talking about a Bird Flu that would kill 20% to 50% of the people that it infects.  Then, combine that with a collapsing dollar, a collapsing stock market and a World War III. . . . Imagine the terror this would cause in people, and then the evil doers come in and say we can make all this stop.  All you have to do is have your leaders sign on the dotted line.”

In closing, Newman quotes Psalms 2 of the Bible, “‘The kings of the earth and the rulers are taking counsel together or conspiring together against the Lord and His anointed.’  That’s exactly what they are doing.  But here’s the really good news.  ‘He who sits in heaven laughs.  The Lord holds them in derision.  He will speak to them in His wrath and terrify them in His fury’ . . . God is not concerned in the slightest.  He is laughing at them . . . You don’t want to be on the wrong side of that.”   

There is much more in the 40-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard-hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the runaway best-selling new book called “Indoctrinating Our Children to Death,” for 9.24.24.

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After the Interview:

For Newman’s breakdown on the major freedom killing points on “Pact for the Future,” click here for the free article.

To order Newman’s new book called “Indoctrinating Our Children to Death,” click here.

Newman’s website is called LibertySentinel.org.  There is lots of free information and articles.

For a copy of Alex Newman’s popular book “Deep State,” click here.

To support Alex Newman with electronic donations, click here.

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