SEPT 26/GOLD CLOSED UP $11.20 TO RECORD LEVELS TO $2671,70//SILVER CLOSED UP $0.29 TO $32.08//PLATINUM CLOSED UP $22.75 TO $1011.70 WHILE PALLADIUM ROSE $9.40 TO $1051.00//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//GOOD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM JONATHAN TURLEY, MIKE EVERY AND VICTOR DAVIS HANSON.//CHINA CONTINUES TO FIRE HOSE ITS ECONOMY//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH AND HAMAS UPDATES//COVID UPDATES, VACCINE INJURY/DR PAUL ALEXANDER/SLAY NEWS ETC//RUSSIA VS UKRAINE UPDATES//ERIC ADAMS, MAJOR OF NEW YORK INDICTED//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT/
152 C DORMAN TRADING 5 190 H BMO CAPITAL 1 323 C HSBC 1 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 46 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 6 523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 2 523 H INTERACTIVE BRO 1 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 23 661 C JP MORGAN 31 8 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3 12 690 C ABN AMRO 1 726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1 737 C ADVANTAGE 6 22 905 C ADM 3 5
TOTAL: 90 90 MONTH TO DATE: 4,204
ACCESS MARKET
JPMorgan stopped 8/90
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR SEPT/2024. CONTRACT: 90 NOTICES FOR 9000 OZ or 0.0278 TONNES
total notices so far: 4204 contracts for 420,400 Oz (13.076 tonnes)
FOR SEPT:
SILVER NOTICES: 37 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 185,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 5,097 for 25.485 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $11.20 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.12 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.29 AT THE SLV
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 464,819MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3234 CONTRACTS TO 146,833 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.26 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A MEGA HUGE LOSS OF 2365 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS WELL AS MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. //. WE HAD ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE.. WE HAD A GIGANTIC 724 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 749 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A MEGA HUGE 2365 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE AND ALL OF THE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO THE TWO SPREADER FACILITIES.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 749 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.26 BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A MEGA HUGE LOSS OF 2365 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO SPREADER LIQUIDATIONS.
WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 724 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 22.765 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 25.485MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//SEPT REMAINS AT 25.485 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 749 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 145 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT, ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF SEPT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 18 DAYS, total 20,486 contracts: OR 102.430 MILLION OZ (1138 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 102.430 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 102.430 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 3234 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:724 ISSUED FOR SEPT AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR SEPT. OF 22.765 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR SEPT REMAINS AT 25.485 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A MEGA HUGE LOSS OF 2510 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 749 CONTRACTS,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX + MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION////// MASSIVE ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ AND ZERO LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (749) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//AND FOR SURE TODAY., .
WE HAD 37 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 185,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,654 OI CONTRACTS TO 558,234 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 5391 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (10,654 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $9.25 IN PRICE /WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR SEPT AT 12.885 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAYS STRONG 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 13.0745 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $9.25 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5391 OI CONTRACTS (16.76 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUMONGOUS SIZED 5263 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 553,986
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5391 CONTRACTS WITH 10,654 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5263 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5,391 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED 3521 CONTRACTS, WE HAD A HUGE MASS LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS PLUS MONTH END SPREADERS/WEDNESDAY.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A MEGA HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5263 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 10,654 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5391 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE ( 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR SEPT 12.885 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 13.0745 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (DURING COMEX PLUS SPREADER LIQUIDATION) WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 3521 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF SEPT. :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 97,439 CONTRACTS OF 9,743,900 OZ OR 303.07 TONNES IN 18 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5413 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 18TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 303.07 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 303.07 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 8.53% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 303.05 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE.
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 3238 CONTRACTS OI TO 146,833 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 724 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 724 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 724 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 3234 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 724 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2510 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 12.550 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.26 LOSS IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 104.65 PTS OR 3.61%//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 795.48PTS OR 4.16%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1055.37PTS OR 2.79%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.08%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0121 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 6.9947 Oil DOWN TO 67.65dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.64 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,654 CONTRACTS TO 553,986 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.25WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5263). THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY WEDNESDAY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION DESPITE WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MINOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BUT AT MUCH HIGHER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST ESPECIALLY YESTERDAY. TAS SHORTERS WERE JOINED IN TANDEM BY MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5263 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : OCT/DEC 5263 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5263 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1142 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5263 LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 10,654 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $9.25 WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ENTIRE LOSS IN OI WAS DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION/MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT A HUGE SIZED 3521 CONTRACTS TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: SEPT (13.0745 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR A NON DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.0745 TONNES.
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $9.25/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY WEDNESDAY EVENING ONCE THE $2,600 PRICE LEVEL WAS PIERCED LAST FRIDAY AND $2650 GOLD HELD IN PRICE.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 3.552 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR SEPT (12.889 TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY WEDNESDAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF A STRONG SIZED 4300 OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SEPT ADVANCES TO: 13.0745TONNES.
NEW STANDING FOR SEPT: 13.0745 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $9.25
WE HAVE REMOVED 5391 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5391 CONTRACTS OR 539,100 OZ (16.76
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
4204 notices 420,400oz 13.076 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
1 dealer deposits:
i) Into Loomis. 40,,220.901 oz
total dealer deposits: 40,220.901oz
we have 1 customer deposits
i) Into Brinks: 97,224.624 oz
total deposits 97,224.624oz (3024 kilobars)
withdrawals: 2
i) Brinks: 1704.01. 13 kilobars
ii) Loomis: 32.151 oz 1 kilobar
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 1736.161oz
adjustments:1. jpmorgan
7716.240 dealer to customer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR SEPTEMBER
For the front month of SEPT. we have an oi of 91 contracts having GAINED 24 contracts. We had 19 notices filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 43 contracts or 4300 oz will stand at the comex as these boys seek metal on THIS side of the pond.
OCTOBER LOST 16,944 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 19,188 CONTRACTS. OCTOBER IS THE NEW FRONT MONTH FOR GOLD
NOVEMBER GAINED 250 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1197
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 4602 CONTRACTS TO 464,244
We had 90 contracts filed for today representing 9000 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 31 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 90 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 8 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for SEPT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (4204 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT (91 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (90x 100 oz per contract( equals 420,500 OZ OR 13.0745 ONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the SEPTEMBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (4204 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of SEPT (91 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (90x 100 oz which equals 420,500 oz (13.0745 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR SEPT.: 13.0745 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,153,010..755 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,632,756.351/// 237,41 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,456.615.543 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 5,755,300oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 179.01 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
SEPT 26 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE SEPT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
639,530.910 OZ Brinks
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)
37 CONTRACT(S) (185,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts (0.000million oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
5097 Contracts (25.485 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits:
i
total customer deposits niloz
We had 1 withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks: 639,530.910 oz
total withdrawal 804,976,388 OZ
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/304.698million or 44.30%
adjustment all dealer to customer
i) Loomis: 96,838.056 oz
ii) Manfra 604,045.200 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.072MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 304.698million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR SEPTEMBER:
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF SEPT/2024 OI: 37 CONTRACTS HAVING LOST 27 CONTRACT(S).
WE HAD 27 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY, SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR NIL OZ
UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OF SILVER OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..
OCTOBER SAW A GAIN OF 16 OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS AND THUS WE HAVE 1325 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FOR OCTOBER.
NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 323
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 3503 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 127,444 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 27 for 135,000oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 88,572 HUGE
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in SEPT. we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 5097x 5,000 oz = 25.485 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of SEPT(37)and the number of notices served upon today 37x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the SEPT/2024 contract month: 5097 notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of SEPT (37 number of notices served upon today minus (37)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 25.485 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 25.485 million oz.
There are 70.072 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 877.12 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NOCHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 464.819MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
end
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
DUMB MOVE: SELLING 25 TONNES OF GOLD..
this was gobbled up by China and Russia
(GATA)
Top official gold seller in first half of 2024 is big U.S. ally
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-09-25 15:13 Section: Daily Dispatches
Philippines Tops World Gold Sales in First Half of 2024
By Ian Laqui Philippine Star, Manila Thursday, September 26, 2024
MANILA — The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas disclosed that it sold gold during the first half of the year, following a report identifying the central bank as the largest precious metal seller for that period.
In a statement, the central bank said the gold sales were part of an “active management strategy” of the country’s gold reserves, which form a portion of the Philippines’ gross international reserves.
“The BSP took advantage of the higher prices of gold in the market and generated additional income without compromising the primary objectives for holding gold, which are insurance and safety,” the central bank’s statement read. …
Citing data from the World Gold Council, brokerage tracking website bestbrokers.com showed that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas sold the most gold in the world, selling 24.95 tons of the metal, bringing down the country’s gold holdings to 134.06 tons.
This was followed by Thailand, which sold 9.64 tons; Uzbekistan, which sold 6.22 tons; Mongolia, with 1.33 tons; and Singapore, which sold 1.18 tons. …
The Bangko Sentral itself, however, did not disclose the exact amount of gold it sold. …
China weighs injecting $142 billion of capital into top banks
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-09-25 23:36 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Bloomberg News Wednesday, September 25, 2024
China is considering injecting up to 1 trillion yuan ($142 billion) of capital into its biggest state banks to increase their capacity to support the struggling economy, according to people familiar with the matter.
The funding will mainly come from the issuance of new special sovereign bonds, said the people, asking not to be identified discussing a private matter. The details have yet to be finalized and are subject to change, the people added. Such a move would be the first time since the global financial crisis in 2008 that Beijing has injected capital into its big banks.
China is rushing to replenish its banks — even though the top six have capital levels that far exceed requirements — after unveiling broad reductions to mortgage rates and slashing key policy rates to revive the economy. Enlisted to support the economy over the past years, lenders such as Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. and Bank of China Ltd. are now battling record low margins, sinking profits, and rising bad debt.
Li Yunze, the nation’s top banking regulator, said this week at a press conference in Beijing that authorities would act to boost core tier 1 capital at its six major commercial banks, without elaborating. The National Financial Regulatory Administration didn’t respond to a request for comment. …
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:SUGAR
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 104.65 PTS OR 3.61%//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 795.48PTS OR 4.16%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1055.37PTS OR 2.79%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 1.08%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7,0121 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 6.9947 Oil DOWN TO 67.65dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.64 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING BELOW LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP TO 7.0121
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 6.9947
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 104.65 PTS OR 3.61%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED 795.48PTS OR 4.16%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1055.37 POINTS OR 2.79%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 100.55 EURO RISES TO 1.1151 UP 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.831 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144.33…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.1400Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.4580 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2,934
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWNTO 3.087
3j Gold at $2684.60 /Silver at: 32.64 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 27/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 92.77
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.33 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.831% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8475 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9454 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.774 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.125 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.547 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.16…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.0175 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.009 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.793 DOWN 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
2B) European report
Geopols and Chinese Stimulus in focus ahead of US data & numerous speakers – Newsquawk US Market Open
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 05:12 AM
Equities are entirely in the green, with optimism lifted amid Chinese stimulus efforts; MU +15% pre-market after strong earnings and solid guidance
Dollar is softer, Antipodeans benefit from the risk-tone but weighs on the JPY
USTs are flat, EGBs benefit on reports that ECB doves are pushing for an October cut and amid reports surrounding France’s fiscal situation
Crude tumbles on constructive geopolitical updates, XAU and base metals benefit from the softer Dollar and positive risk tone
“Senior US officials have said that they expect a ceasefire deal to be implemented “in the coming hours” along Israel-Lebanon border”, according to Walla News’ Elster
Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, GDP Final (Q2), Core PCE (Q2), IJC, Banxico Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos & Schnabel, Fed’s Powell, Williams, Collins, Kugler, Bowman, Barr, Kashkari & Cook, Supply from the US
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx600 (+1.2%) are entirely in the green, with sentiment lifted from further Chinese stimulus efforts. Price action today has only really moved upwards, initially opening on a strong footing and gradually edging higher as the morning progressed.
European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Consumer Products tops the pile, benefiting from significant strength in the Luxury sector amid further Chinese stimulus efforts; Basic Resources and Tech also gain. Energy is by far the clear underperformer, dragged down by losses in the crude complex.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.8%, NQ +1.4%, RTY +0.9%) are entirely in the green, taking impetus from a strong European session, with sentiment lifted by further Chinese stimulus efforts; the tech-heavy NQ outperforms, owing to very strong Micron (+15% pre-market) results where it beat on top- and bottom-lines and provided solid guidance.
USD is broadly negative vs. peers (ex-JPY) in today’s risk-on environment. DXY is currently towards the top end of yesterday’s 100.22-99 range.
EUR/USD is hovering just above yesterday’s 1.1121 low that was printed alongside a resurgence in the USD which dragged the pair back from its 1.1214 YTD high. EUR/USD saw a very modest dovish reaction to Reuters reporting that ECB’s October rate decision is now “wide-open” on account of recent soft data, which stands in contrast to sources after the Sept.
Cable is attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s lost ground which saw the pair dragged lower from its multi-year peak at 1.3429.
JPY struggling vs. the USD once again with the pair rising as high as 145.20 during today’s session. The next upside target comes via the 4th September high at 145.55.
Both antipodes are at the top of the G10 leaderboard and enjoying the current risk-on environment. AUD/USD remains supported by the general positivity surrounding China after this week’s stimulus efforts by officials.
EUR/CHF immediately fell from 0.9492 to 0.9436 following the SNB’s decision to cut rates by 25bps to 1.00%. A move which partially pared as the statement made clear that they are willing to intervene in the FX market as necessary and pointed to additional cuts being possible.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0354 vs exp. 7.0367 (prev. 7.0202).
USTs are contained with no follow through to the European-related updates. A particularly packed US agenda with 7yr supply (follows mixed 2yr & 5yr thus far) and numerous data points (quarterly PCE/GDP & weekly Claims) but the focal point is the speaker schedule with Fed’s Powell and Williams. USTs are holding within narrow 114-15+ to 114-19 bounds.
Bunds spent the first part of the session in proximity to the unchanged mark and generally unreactive to today’s geopolitical updates. Bunds saw some very modest upside to reports that ECB doves were pushing for an October cut, taking it to an initial 134.71 peak. Thereafter, further impetus was driven by reports around France’s fiscal situation, which contributed to the bid in Bunds to a 134.78 peak.
OATs were lifted out of modest losses following the aforementioned ECB sources and then once again on reports that France will be requesting the EU for a two-year extension. OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has widened above 80bps to its highest since early August
Gilts are slightly softer with no real follow through to the above ECB sources and UK specifics somewhat light. Holding around the 98.55 opening mark, briefly dipped to a fresh WTD base of 98.41.
Hefty losses in the crude complex this morning emanated from an unwind of risk premium from constructive geopolitical updates, in which reports suggested that senior US officials anticipate a ceasefire deal along the Israel-Lebanon border “in the coming hours”. Benchmarks as low as USD 67.16/bbl and USD 70.72/bbl for WTI and Brent respectively.
Precious metals are buoyed by the softer Dollar but spot gold sees the shallowest gains (+0.5%) vs silver (+1.0%) and palladium (+2.4%), potentially amid the constructive geopoltical updates.
Base metals are firmer across the board amid the softer Dollar and risk-on mood across the market, with sentiment also seeing continued tailwinds from China’s stimulus bazooka. 3M LME copper trades towards the top of a 9,781.00-9,922.50/t range.
Saudi Arabia is reportedly prepared to abandon its unofficial USD 100 crude target in order to regain market share, via FT citing sources; add, in a sign that Saudi is resigned to a period of lower oil prices. Sources add that Saudi is committed to bringing back production as planned on 1st December. Reportedly unwilling to continue surrendering market share to other producers.
Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister Sorokin says Russia see oil production costs increasing as “Oil will be harder to extract”.
BP (BP/ LN) said it secured offshore facilities and removed some non-essential personnel from Argos, Atlantis, Mad Dog, Na Kika, and Thunder Horse platforms, while it is working toward safely ramping up production across its Gulf of Mexico portfolio.
Citi forecasts Brent at USD 74/bbl in Q4-2024; sees overall fundamental supply and demand bearishness winning out over time, with a forecast for USD 60/bbl for 2025.
Iraq’s August total oil exports at 105.8mln barrels. according to the oil ministry cited by Reuters
Italian Consumer Confidence (Sep) 98.3 vs. Exp. 97.0 (Prev. 96.1); Mfg Business Confidence (Sep) 86.7 vs. Exp. 87.1 (Prev. 87.1, Rev. 87.0)
EU Money-M3 Annual Grwth (Aug) 2.9% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.3%); Loans to Non-Fin (Aug) 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%); Loans to Households (Aug) 0.6% (Prev. 0.5%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
SNB cuts its Policy Rate by 25bps as expected to 1.00%; prepared to intervene in the FX market as necessary; Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.; Click for more details.
SNB outgoing Chairman Jordan says inflationary pressure has decrease significantly in Switzerland; strong CHF, lower oil, and electricity prices contributed to lower inflation forecasts; downside risk to inflation higher than upside risk. Further rate cuts may be necessary int in the coming quarters. Swiss economic growth will be “rather modest” in coming quarters. Says he sees no risk of deflation; further rate cuts “might” be necessary to ensure price stability (post-meeting press conference).
SNB Vice-Chair Schlegel says measures to expand provision of liquidity for Swiss banks will further strengthen the sector. Comments on possible further rate cuts not unconditional, bank will examine the situation in December
German Economic Institutes forecast inflation to go down to 2.2% this year from 5.9% last year; cuts 2024 forecast, sees economy shrinking by 0.1% in 2024 (prev. forecast +0.1%).
“Hearing France will ask Brussels for a two year delay in reaching its 3% of GDP deficit target i.e. 2029 instead of 2027. Speculation rife in French press today”, Eurasia Group’s Rahman
UK car manufacturing output fell 8.4% Y/Y to 41,271 units in August, according to SMMT.
Swedish NIER think tank forecasts 2024 Swedish GDP +0.7% (vs +0.7% in August forecast).
ECB rate decision is “wide-open”, according to Reuters sources; fight for a cut following weak data. Doves are pointing towards recent soft business survey data and weak German sentiment metrics. Hawks are arguing for a pause.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed’s Kugler (2024 voter) said she strongly supported the Fed’s 50bps interest rate cut and will support additional rate cuts going forward if progress on inflation continues as she expects. Kugler added they are at a place where they do not want the labour market to weaken further and it makes sense to shift attention to the employment mandate, as well as noted that they are making very good progress towards inflation goals but they are not at 2% yet. Furthermore, she said with disinflation, they need to cut even just to keep where they are in terms of restrictiveness and it makes sense to cut rates to remove some restrictiveness.
US House voted 341-82 to pass a stopgap government funding bill and the US Senate also voted 78-18 to pass the bill that would fund the government until December 20th.
New York City Mayor Adams was indicted following a federal corruption probe and believes he will be charged by the federal government with crimes but added that if charges are filed, they will be entirely false and based on lies, while he won’t resign if he has to face charges.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EU SESSION UPDATES
“Senior US officials have said that they expect a ceasefire deal to be implemented “in the coming hours” along Israel-Lebanon border”, according to Walla News’ Elster.
“US official says Israel and Lebanon expected to decide “within hours” whether to support the truce”, via Sky News Arabia; echoed by Cairo sources thereafter.
Kann’s Stein reports a statement from Israeli PM Netanyahu’s coalition members, Smotrich, Ben Gvir and ministers from the Likud party, saying that they “oppose the ceasefire”. Furthermore, opposition leader Lapid says the ceasefire should be accepted for only seven days. Lapid adds that even a minor violation of the ceasefire would result in the return of Israel to the attack “with all its strength and throughout Lebanon”.
Source in Israeli PM Netanyahu’s says “There is a green light for a ceasefire in order to start negotiations”, via Al Jazeera.
“There are ideas and discussions, but there is no result so far”, “The discussions are not only related to Lebanon, but include Gaza”, according to Sky News Arabia sources.
“Israel’s Channel 12: Netanyahu ordered the Israeli army to ease attacks in Lebanon against the backdrop of ceasefire talks”, according to Al Jazeera.
“Israel’s Channel 12 quoting government sources: Israel sets terms for truce and estimates that Nasrallah [Secretary-general of Hezbollah] will not agree to them”, according to Al Jazeera.
Qatar foreign ministry spokesperson says not aware of direct link between 21-day Lebanon ceasefire proposal and the Gaza ceasefire proposal; there is not yet a formal mediation track working towards a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Israeli Prime Minister’s Office says “the news about a ceasefire are incorrect. This is an American-French proposal, to which the prime minister did not even respond.”, via Amichai Stein on X.
Israeli PM Netanyahu says he has instructed military to keep “fighting at full power”.
“Israeli Foreign Minister: There will be no ceasefire in the north”, according to Sky News Arabia.
“Lebanese PM denies signing ceasefire agreement after meeting with Blinken and Hochstein”, according to Al Arabiya.
MIDDLE EAST – APAC UPDATES
US, France and partners proposed an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border and called for a ceasefire in Gaza. US President Biden and French President Macron said it is time for a settlement on the Israel-Lebanon border that ensures safety and security to enable civilians to return to their homes and they have worked together in recent days on a joint call for a temporary ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. Furthermore, they called for broad endorsement and immediate support from the governments of Israel and Lebanon, while the statement was endorsed by the US, Australia, Canada, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
Israel and Hezbollah communicated details of the US-France proposal and will announce their response soon, while The Washington Post cited US officials stating that Hezbollah will not directly sign the ceasefire agreement.
US President Biden said an all-out war is possible in the Middle East, but there is also a possibility of a settlement and said there needs to be a two-state solution, according to an ABC interview.
French Foreign Minister told the Security Council that the situation in Lebanon may reach the point of no return and that Lebanon which is already considerably weakened, will not be able to be restored after a war between Israel and Hezbollah. Furthermore, he said war is not inevitable and there is no alternative to diplomacy. The Foreign Minister also noted that important progress was recently made on a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon and efforts will continue.
Israeli source said they are approaching a crossroads to make decisive decisions that will determine where the war is heading and noted that talks on the north aim to provide an opportunity for a settlement that prevents a major war, according to Israeli press.
Israeli press Hayom cited an Israeli source stating there is no prospect of reaching a ceasefire at least in the next few days.
Israeli UN envoy said Israel would prefer a diplomatic solution in Lebanon and if diplomacy fails, then Israel will use all means at its disposal. The envoy added that diplomacy will be better for Israel and Lebanese people, as well as noted that Israeli PM Netanyahu will arrive on Thursday and address the UN General Assembly on Friday while Israel’s UN envoy also commented that Iran is the spider at the centre of the web of violence and there can be no peace in the region until we dismantle this threat.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said the region is on the brink of a full-scale catastrophe and Israel has crossed all red lines, while he added that the UN Security Council must intervene to restore peace and security. Furthermore, he said that Israeli leaders must understand their crimes won’t go unpunished and Iran will not remain indifferent in case of a full-scale war in Lebanon.
UN Secretary-General Guterres told the Security Council that ‘hell is breaking loose’ in Lebanon and diplomatic efforts have intensified to achieve a temporary ceasefire to allow for aid deliveries and pave the way for more durable peace. Guterres stated all parties must immediately return to a cessation of hostilities, while an all-out war must be avoided at all costs and that Lebanon cannot become another Gaza.
Lebanon’s PM told the Security Council that Israel is violating their sovereignty, while Lebanon’s PM responded ‘hopefully yes’ when asked if a ceasefire can be reached soon, according to Reuters.
OTHER
US is reportedly preparing USD 8bln in arms aid packages for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit, according to sources via Reuters. It was later reported that President Biden’s administration announced USD 375mln for Ukraine defence aid which includes HIMARS, Javelin missiles and TOW missiles, according to the White House and State Department.
Russian President Putin proposed to update Russia’s nuclear strategy and said that a number of clarifications have been proposed with regard to the definition of conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. The proposal stated that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian federation, while Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus.
China’s Foreign Minister said in meeting with EU’s top official that China is committed to de-escalating the situation in Ukraine and China will not give up efforts to strive for peace in Ukraine.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said North Korea possesses enough plutonium and uranium to make at least double-digit nuclear weapons, while it added that North Korea could possibly conduct a 7th nuclear test, according to Yonhap.
Russia’s Kremlin says changes to Russian nuclear policy in the document on state nuclear deterrence have now been formulated; changes should be considered a signal to “unfriendly” countries. Will subsequently make a decision on whether or not to publish nuclear documents. There are two documents on nuclear policy. Signal to the west is that there are consequences if Western countries participate in an attack on Russia with various means.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is slightly firmer and holds around 63.5k whilst Ethereum gains to a larger magnitude, climbing above USD 2.6k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St and the recent geopolitical escalation, as some ‘progress’ was said to be made regarding a temporary ceasefire proposal and a 21-day ceasefire was proposed by US and France, while China benefitted again from stimulus.
ASX 200 saw gains across all sectors, while the RBA’s FSR noted Australia’s financial system is resilient and risks are contained.
Nikkei 225 outperformed as exporters benefitted from recent currency weakness, while stale BoJ minutes did little to shift the dial.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp extended on the recent rally owing to policy support after China’s State Council issued guidelines for promoting high-quality employment and with China to give rare one-off cash handouts to people in extreme poverty ahead of the National Day holiday, while it was also reported that China was weighing injecting USD 142bln of capital into top banks.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Politburo held meeting on Sept 26, and said they will lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement forceful interest rate cuts, according to Reuters. China’s Politburo said it will ensure necessary fiscal spending, will make efforts to stop the falls in the property market and stabilize it.
China weighs injecting USD 142bln of capital into top banks, according to Bloomberg.
China’s MOFCOM launched an anti-discriminatory investigation against Canada’s restrictive measures including additional tariffs on China’s EVs, steel and aluminium products, according to Reuters.
BoJ July Minutes from the July 30th-31st meeting noted that members shared the view over a need for vigilance to risk of an inflation overshoot, while many said it was appropriate to raise rates to 0.25% and adjust the degree of monetary support. A few members also said it was appropriate to gradually adjust very low rates now to avoid being forced to hike rates rapidly later.
RBA Financial Stability Review stated the Australian Financial System is resilient and risks are contained, while it noted that risks include stress in China’s financial sector and the lack of significant response from Beijing.
China to issue USD 284bln of sovereign debt as part of fresh fiscal stimulus, according to Reuters sources; some of the fiscal support measures could be unveiled as early as this week.
2C ASIAN REPORT.
Potential Israel-Lebanon ceasefire reports intensify, numerous ECB & Fed officials due – Newsquawk Euro Market Open
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 01:13 AM
APAC stocks shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St and the recent geopolitical escalation, as some ‘progress’ was said to be made regarding a temporary ceasefire proposal and a 21-day ceasefire was proposed by US and France, while China benefitted again from stimulus.
“Senior US officials have said that they expect a ceasefire deal to be implemented “in the coming hours” along Israel-Lebanon border”, according to Walla News’ Elster.
China Politburo held meeting on Sept 26, and said they will lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement forceful interest rate cuts, according to Reuters.
Fed’s Kugler (2024 voter) said she strongly supported the Fed’s 50bps interest rate cut and will support additional rate cuts going forward if progress on inflation continues as she expects.
European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include German GfK Consumer Sentiment, US Durable Goods, GDP Final (Q2), Core PCE (Q2), IJC, SNB & Banxico Policy Announcements, Speakers including SNB’s Jordan, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, de Guindos & Schnabel, Fed’s Powell, Williams, Collins, Kugler, Bowman, Barr, Kashkari & Cook, Supply from the US, Earnings from JD Sports, H&M, Costco & Jabil.
US stocks ultimately closed mixed but with a negative bias and sectors were predominantly in the red with Energy, Health Care and Materials the underperformers while Utilities and Tech were the only sectors in the green on a day dominated by geopolitical-related headlines. After-hours, Micron (MU) shares soared 14.8% post-earnings.
There were heightened concerns regarding a potential ground invasion of Lebanon after an Israeli army chief told troops that Israel had been striking all day to prepare the ground for possible entry. Nonetheless, it was also reported that the US was leading a new effort to end hostilities and Israeli PM Netanyahu gave the green light to discuss with the US side the cessation of attacks with Lebanon to give a chance for negotiations, although Netanyahu also said that any truce negotiations will be under fire and they will continue to strike Hezbollah, while a US official noted that it is still uncertain whether Israeli PM Netanyahu and Hezbollah’s Nasrallah are willing to agree to a cessation of fighting.
SPX -0.19% at 5,722, NDX +0.14% at 19,973, DJIA -0.70% at 41,915, RUT -1.19% at 2,197.
Fed’s Kugler (2024 voter) said she strongly supported the Fed’s 50bps interest rate cut and will support additional rate cuts going forward if progress on inflation continues as she expects. Kugler added they are at a place where they do not want the labour market to weaken further and it makes sense to shift attention to the employment mandate, as well as noted that they are making very good progress towards inflation goals but they are not at 2% yet. Furthermore, she said with disinflation, they need to cut even just to keep where they are in terms of restrictiveness and it makes sense to cut rates to remove some restrictiveness.
US House voted 341-82 to pass a stopgap government funding bill and the US Senate also voted 78-18 to pass the bill that would fund the government until December 20th.
Agriculture and food groups urged the White House to intervene to block a potential US East Coast and Gulf Coast ports labour disruption.
New York City Mayor Adams was indicted following a federal corruption probe and believes he will be charged by the federal government with crimes but added that if charges are filed, they will be entirely false and based on lies, while he won’t resign if he has to face charges.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks shrugged off the subdued handover from Wall St and the recent geopolitical escalation, as some ‘progress’ was said to be made regarding a temporary ceasefire proposal and a 21-day ceasefire was proposed by US and France, while China benefitted again from stimulus.
ASX 200 saw gains across all sectors, while the RBA’s FSR noted Australia’s financial system is resilient and risks are contained.
Nikkei 225 outperformed as exporters benefitted from recent currency weakness, while stale BoJ minutes did little to shift the dial.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp extended on the recent rally owing to policy support after China’s State Council issued guidelines for promoting high-quality employment and with China to give rare one-off cash handouts to people in extreme poverty ahead of the National Day holiday, while it was also reported that China was weighing injecting USD 142bln of capital into top banks.
US equity futures were supported alongside the gains in Asia but with the upside capped ahead of an abundance of Fed rhetoric.
European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.7% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY took a breather after yesterday’s resurgence whereby it reverted to just shy of the 101.00 level as geopolitical concerns spurred haven appeal, while participants now await a myriad of speakers culminating with Fed Chair Powell and NY Fed President Williams.
EUR/USD saw some slight reprieve following its slip from resistance at the 1.1200 territory, although the rebound was only marginal with comments from ECB officials also scheduled today including Lagarde, de Guindos, Elderson & Schnabel.
GBP/USD attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses after it found support just north of the 1.3300 level.
USD/JPY marginally edged higher and retained a firm footing in the 144.00 territory after ascending on the recent dollar strength.
Antipodeans recouped some lost ground with the help of the positive risk environment and ongoing China optimism.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0354 vs exp. 7.0367 (prev. 7.0202).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures remained subdued after trickling lower yesterday amid corporate supply and a mixed 5yr auction, while demand was restrained ahead of a slew of central bank commentary and data releases, as well as a 7yr auction.
Bund futures price action was lacklustre after recently pulling back from resistance at the 135.00 level.
10yr JGB futures tracked recent losses in global peers and failed to benefit from improved results of the 40yr JGB auction, while outdated BoJ minutes from the July meeting had little effect on prices.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures languished near the prior day’s lows after retreating despite bullish crude inventories and geopolitical escalation in the Middle East, while desks attributed the selling to Libyan tensions easing.
BSEE said 29% of oil production and 17% of nat gas production at the Gulf of Mexico is shut in due to Hurricane Helene.
BP (BP/ LN) said it secured offshore facilities and removed some non-essential personnel from Argos, Atlantis, Mad Dog, Na Kika, and Thunder Horse platforms, while it is working toward safely ramping up production across its Gulf of Mexico portfolio.
Representatives from Libya’s eastern and western administrations are said to have agreed to nominate Naji Issa as interim central bank governor, while it was also reported that Libya’s legislative bodies signed an agreement on procedures, criteria and timelines for appointing the central bank governor, deputy and board of directors.
Spot gold traded rangebound ahead of a busy schedule of Fed speakers and data releases.
Copper futures were indecisive despite the predominantly constructive mood and ongoing China stimulus optimism.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin marginally strengthened overnight after rebounding from an initial dip beneath the USD 63,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Politburo held meeting on Sept 26, and said they will lower the reserve requirement ratio and implement forceful interest rate cuts, according to Reuters. China’s Politburo said it will ensure necessary fiscal spending, will make efforts to stop the falls in the property market and stabilize it.
China weighs injecting USD 142bln of capital into top banks, according to Bloomberg.
China’s MOFCOM launched an anti-discriminatory investigation against Canada’s restrictive measures including additional tariffs on China’s EVs, steel and aluminium products, according to Reuters.
BoJ July Minutes from the July 30th-31st meeting noted that members shared the view over a need for vigilance to risk of an inflation overshoot, while many said it was appropriate to raise rates to 0.25% and adjust the degree of monetary support. A few members also said it was appropriate to gradually adjust very low rates now to avoid being forced to hike rates rapidly later.
RBA Financial Stability Review stated the Australian Financial System is resilient and risks are contained, while it noted that risks include stress in China’s financial sector and the lack of significant response from Beijing.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
US, France and partners proposed an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border and called for a ceasefire in Gaza. US President Biden and French President Macron said it is time for a settlement on the Israel-Lebanon border that ensures safety and security to enable civilians to return to their homes and they have worked together in recent days on a joint call for a temporary ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed. Furthermore, they called for broad endorsement and immediate support from the governments of Israel and Lebanon, while the statement was endorsed by the US, Australia, Canada, EU, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar.
“Senior US officials have said that they expect a ceasefire deal to be implemented “in the coming hours” along Israel-Lebanon border”, according to Walla News’ Elster.
Israel and Hezbollah communicated details of the US-France proposal and will announce their response soon, while The Washington Post cited US officials stating that Hezbollah will not directly sign the ceasefire agreement.
US President Biden said an all-out war is possible in the Middle East, but there is also a possibility of a settlement and said there needs to be a two-state solution, according to an ABC interview.
US-led talks for a potential de-escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah flare-up with an eye to a possible ceasefire saw “significant progress” and reached “a serious and advanced stage”, according to Lebanese news site LBCI reports citing sources.
French Foreign Minister told the Security Council that the situation in Lebanon may reach the point of no return and that Lebanon which is already considerably weakened, will not be able to be restored after a war between Israel and Hezbollah. Furthermore, he said war is not inevitable and there is no alternative to diplomacy. The Foreign Minister also noted that important progress was recently made on a temporary ceasefire in Lebanon and efforts will continue.
Israeli PM Netanyahu said they are delivering blows to Hezbollah that it could never imagine and doing that with force and by being clever. Netanyahu also said that he cannot give details on what they are doing, but they are determined to bring the citizens of the north home.
Israeli PM Netanyahu gave the green light to discuss with the US side the cessation of attacks with Lebanon to give a chance for negotiations, according to Sky News Arabia citing a correspondent. It was separately reported that Netanyahu said any truce negotiations will be under fire and that they will continue to strike Hezbollah, according to Al Arabiya.
Israeli officials said they are ready for efforts and proposals, but the chances of reaching an agreement are slim, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 13. It was earlier reported that Israel’s cabinet members would discuss authorising PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Galant to approve ground exercises in Lebanon, according to Al Jazeera citing sources.
Israeli source said they are approaching a crossroads to make decisive decisions that will determine where the war is heading and noted that talks on the north aim to provide an opportunity for a settlement that prevents a major war, according to Israeli press.
US Department of Defense believes Israel is not in a position to launch a ground invasion now and would need to move more troops into place, but it also thinks such an attack could come together in a matter of several days, according to WSJ sources.
Israeli press Hayom cited an Israeli source stating there is no prospect of reaching a ceasefire at least in the next few days.
Israeli UN envoy said Israel would prefer a diplomatic solution in Lebanon and if diplomacy fails, then Israel will use all means at its disposal. The envoy added that diplomacy will be better for Israel and Lebanese people, as well as noted that Israeli PM Netanyahu will arrive on Thursday and address the UN General Assembly on Friday while Israel’s UN envoy also commented that Iran is the spider at the centre of the web of violence and there can be no peace in the region until we dismantle this threat.
Iran’s Foreign Minister said the region is on the brink of a full-scale catastrophe and Israel has crossed all red lines, while he added that the UN Security Council must intervene to restore peace and security. Furthermore, he said that Israeli leaders must understand their crimes won’t go unpunished and Iran will not remain indifferent in case of a full-scale war in Lebanon.
UN Secretary-General Guterres told the Security Council that ‘hell is breaking loose’ in Lebanon and diplomatic efforts have intensified to achieve a temporary ceasefire to allow for aid deliveries and pave the way for more durable peace. Guterres stated all parties must immediately return to a cessation of hostilities, while an all-out war must be avoided at all costs and that Lebanon cannot become another Gaza.
Lebanon’s PM told the Security Council that Israel is violating their sovereignty, while Lebanon’s PM responded ‘hopefully yes’ when asked if a ceasefire can be reached soon, according to Reuters.
Dozens of US troops have been deployed to Cyprus amid sharply escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, and are preparing for a range of contingencies, according to CNN citing sources.
Islamic resistance in Iraq said it targeted Israel’s Eilat with drones. It was also reported that the IDF said they are following up on threats from Iraq and gathering information and will do what is necessary, according to Asharq News.
White House’s Kirby said there is no indication Iran is interested in an all-out war in the region, according to a Fox News interview.
US Treasury sanctioned over a dozen entities and vessels for their involvement in transporting Iranian oil to Syria and East Asia, according to Asharq News.
OTHER
US is reportedly preparing USD 8bln in arms aid packages for Ukrainian President Zelensky’s visit, according to sources via Reuters. It was later reported that President Biden’s administration announced USD 375mln for Ukraine defence aid which includes HIMARS, Javelin missiles and TOW missiles, according to the White House and State Department.
Russian President Putin proposed to update Russia’s nuclear strategy and said that a number of clarifications have been proposed with regard to the definition of conditions for the use of nuclear weapons. The proposal stated that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear state, but with participation or support of a nuclear state, is proposed to be considered as their joint attack on the Russian federation, while Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in case of aggression against Russia and Belarus.
China’s Foreign Minister said in meeting with EU’s top official that China is committed to de-escalating the situation in Ukraine and China will not give up efforts to strive for peace in Ukraine.
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service said North Korea possesses enough plutonium and uranium to make at least double-digit nuclear weapons, while it added that North Korea could possibly conduct a 7th nuclear test, according to Yonhap.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK car manufacturing output fell 8.4% Y/Y to 41,271 units in August, according to SMMT.
2 JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA
China Goes “All Out”As Xi Vows To Save Private Economy, Stabilize Real Estate And Boost Stock Markets
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 07:46 AM
Yesterday, when describing the latest round of monetary stimulus out of Beijing, we said that “China is not done stimulating” and boy were we right.
Global markets are sharply higher (again) on Thursday, fueled by hopes of more intervention just days after the central bank announced the biggest monetary stimulus since the pandemic, after China extended its stimulus barrage for the third day in a row, and vowed even more support including a pledge to intensify fiscal support for the world’s second-largest economy, as well as press speculation of 1 trillion renminbi of bank injections.
*CHINA WEIGHS INJECTING $142 BILLION OF CAPITAL INTO TOP BANKS
China vowed to save the private economy, stabilize its property sector from further slumping, boost its stock markets and ensure necessary fiscal expenditures, according to the readout from a Politburo meeting on Thursday.
“It is necessary to help enterprises tide over difficulties,” said the readout, which was released just after 1pm.
The top decision-making meeting, which was chaired by President Xi Jinping, came after financial authorities rolled out a raft of stimulus measures on Tuesday.
“It is necessary to look at the current economic situation comprehensively, objectively and calmly,” the readout said. “Face up to difficulties, strengthen confidence, and effectively enhance the sense of responsibility and urgency to do a good job in economic work.”
The politburo pledged on Thursday to “issue and use” government bonds to better implement “the driving role of government investment”, in comments that come as analysts warn that China is in danger of missing its official economic growth target this year.
There was a sense of emergency intervention in today’s politburo meeting because as Morgan Stanley analysts noted, the politburo usually does not hold economic sessions in September, suggesting “an increased sense of urgency” about growing deflationary pressures. But they said China’s government did not yet appear to have reached a “whatever it takes” moment on the economy… at least not just yet.
Still, there was a certain sense of open-endedness to the latest promises as state media reports of the meeting did not provide figures for the proposed fiscal stimulus, or whether it would exceed existing plans for long-term central government and local government issuance this year.
“We should increase the intensity of countercyclical adjustment of fiscal and monetary policies,” state news agency Xinhua cited officials as saying.
“It is good to do this fiscal easing,” said Winnie Wu, China equity strategist at Bank of America. “For the economy to expand and boost activity, create demand, the government will have to lever up. But we need to see the numbers . . . if this is not enough [I expect] there will be more follow-up in the coming months.”
What was notable, is that the meeting specifically mentioned “to stop property price falling further”. This is a dramatic contrast to the earlier mantra of “home is for living in, not for speculation”. There are other property specifics in the meeting minutes.
Some other notable take homes from the politburo meeting:
The meeting recognized the challenges that the economy is facing, and vowed to achieve the 5% growth target. This is different from the earlier change of tone of “striving the best to achieve the 5% target”.
The meeting explicit stated that there will be policy support for the capital market, and make funds easier to access the market. It shows that the capital market is important in the overall design of policies.
There were detailed discussions about improving jobs and social welfare.
Xi also warned against inertia among cadres in striving for economic growth. “The vast number of party members and cadres must have the courage to take responsibility and dare to innovate,” the readout said.
The politburo’s statement follows measures this week from the central bank and financial regulators including interest rate cuts and billions of dollars of funds to prop up the stock market and encourage share buybacks. The moves, which also comprised steps to support China’s crisis-hit property market, sent the country’s moribund stock market soaring as investors bet on increased state support for equities.
But the government has stopped short of announcing a fiscal “bazooka” as it has during past crises, such as when it unleashed Rmb4tn ($570bn) in 2008, sparking a boom that reverberated through the global economy. The government was already planning to issue about Rmb5tn in long-term government bonds and special-purpose local government bonds this year, but most of this was earmarked for investment in infrastructure or other projects.
Economists estimate that given the much larger size of China’s gross domestic product compared with 2008, it would need to spend up to Rmb10tn over two years to fully reflate the economy, with this money going to households rather than big-ticket infrastructure or industrial projects. They warn that China is in danger of slipping into a full-fledged deflationary spiral as the property slump weighs on domestic consumption even as investment in manufacturing rises.
“A proper reflation [of the Chinese economy] involves either of these two things: a much weaker currency or very aggressive fiscal stimulus,” said Homin Lee, senior macro strategist at Lombard Odier.
Commenting on the latest stimulus, Goldman Delta One head Rich Privorotsky writes that the Politburo (chaired by Xi) is “saying all the right things including pledging they will do the appropriate level of the sorely-needed fiscal spend”, which according to the Goldman trader is an “all out effort to support markets and stabilize confidence ahead of national holiday. Fiscal was the missing piece and market will continue to chase allocations to the geography as confidence builds around its deployment.” Goldman’s own flows showed the single largest buying in its records …but market participants are still structurally underweight. Seems we’ve found the pain point for the CCP/PBOC/MOF…Xi and optimistically fiscal support will now come following monetary support for assets.”
In response, local markets exploded higher, and China’s CSI 300 stock benchmark was up more than 4% on Thursday, fully erasing its losses for the year. The Hang Seng Mainland Properties index, which tracks Chinese developers listed in Hong Kong, rose more than 14%. In retrospect, just as we predicted last Friday…
… China had indeed reached its breaking point, and it is very much unlikely that the half measures we had seen for so many years are finally over.
China’s euphoria quickly spilled over into global markets, and Europe opened higher, with the region-wide Stoxx 600 index climbing 1% Frankfurt’s Dax gained 1.1 per cent, while Paris’s Cac 40 rose 1.3 per cent. The markets’ respective automotive and luxury sectors are heavily exposed to China. Finally, US equity futures are also set for new all time highs, although the coming global reflationary wave sparked by China is hardly what the Fed, and markets, want to see as it extends its rate cuts over the next year.
China Poses Greater Challenges To US Than Cold War: Deputy Secretary of State
The United States is facing a threat from China’s communist regime that Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell has warned is more severe than the Cold War, with a senior House lawmaker emphasizing that the regime poses an “immediate danger.”
Campbell made the remarks during a House Foreign Affairs Committee hearing on Sept. 18, which was centered around the challenges posed by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in the Indo-Pacific region.
“Frankly, the Cold War pales in comparison to the multifaceted challenges that China presents,“ Campbell said. ”It’s not just the military challenges. It’s across the board. It’s in the Global South. It is in technology. We need to step up our game across the board.”
The Biden administration has labeled China the “most consequential” challenge to the United States, saying that the United States seeks competition with Beijing but does not seek a conflict or a new Cold War. The Pentagon has characterized China as its “pacing challenge,” particularly in areas such as cyberspace, the Arctic region, and outer space.
Campbell emphasized the importance of having a bipartisan focus on China.
“Probably the most important thing that we’re going to need to do in terms of a national strategy in the Indo-Pacific is to sustain bipartisanship, and I do believe we’re on the road to that now,” he said. “I think there is a recognition that this is the most significant challenge in our history.”
Campbell said that the dominant area of competition is in technology, including artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and semiconductors.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), the committee’s chairman, also warned about the threat posed by the CCP.
“The great power competition with China is not just a contest of military might or economic dominance; it is a struggle over the rules which will shape the 21st century and the global balance of power,” McCaul said in his opening remarks at the hearing.
“This is not a future threat or an isolated problem on the other side of the world—the CCP poses [an] immediate danger to the security interests of the United States and its allies.”
Russian Ties
China’s ties with Russia also came under scrutiny during the hearing, particularly Beijing’s support for the Russian war in Ukraine.
Campbell said the United States had been “slow to recognize the absolute intensity of engagement” between CCP leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As for China’s support for Russia’s defense industry, Campbell said it came from the top of the CCP leadership.
“The most worrisome thing is that it comes from the very top,” Campbell said.
“We see the role of UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicles] and other capacities that are penetrating the Ukrainian airspace. Much of that has been supported surreptitiously by China, and it raises real concerns.”
When asked about specifics that China provided to Russia, Campbell said that “chips, some design features,“ and ”some capacities associated with the making of explosives” have substantially aided Russian capabilities on the battlefield.
Xi and Putin elevated their ties to a “no-limit“ partnership in February 2021, just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine. In 2023, bilateral trade between the two countries reached a new record of $240.1 billion, up 25 percent from the previous year, according to China’s official customs data.
The two leaders reaffirmed their partnership in China in May, during Putin’s first official overseas trip since the start of his new six-year presidential term.
The Biden administration has more than 300 sanctions and export controls on Chinese entities for their support of Russia in the Russia–Ukraine war.
“We, frankly, have taken a lot of sanctions against Chinese firms,” Campbell said. “The challenge is we’ve got to get more support from Europe on this.”
In exchange for China’s help, Russia has provided China with submarine and missile technologies, according to Campbell.
“Russia is providing China with ‘submarine operations, activities of aeronautical design, including stealth; that also involves capacities on missile capabilities,’” McCaul said while quoting Campbell’s remarks following talks with European Union and NATO counterparts earlier this month.
McCaul told Campbell, “I couldn’t agree with you more that countering the CCP must be our top priority.”
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
END
FRANCE
end
EUROPE
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/LEBANON/IRAN
The spider at the center of this web of violence’: Danon criticizes Iran over Hezbollah escalation
Danon spoke as the UNSC met to discuss the escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which the international community fears is about to escalate into a third Israeli-Lebanon war.
Iran is fighting a war against humanity and is holding the Lebanese hostage through its proxy group Hezbollah, Israel’s Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon told the UN Security Council as he defended Israel’s military actions in Lebanon.
“The Islamic Regime of Iran is the driving force behind the rockets that have been launched at our communities for almost a year, “ Danon said.
“This is not just a war against Israel. This is a war on humanity, waged by Iran’s proxies. They hold the people of Lebanon hostage, using their homes as shields for their rockets, pushing the entire region to the brink of destruction,” he stated.
Danon spoke as the UNSC met to discuss the escalation in the last week of the year-long constrained cross-border IDF-Hezbollah war, which the international community fears is about to escalate into a third Israeli-Lebanon war.He called on the UNSC to insist that Hezbollah must adhere to Resolution 1701, which mandates that no armed non-state actors can operate along Israel’s southern border.
Danon placed the conflict within the larger regional one between Israel and Iran, noting that in the last year, Israel has been fighting the Islamic Republic’s proxies on many fronts, including Hamas in Gaza and the Houthis in Yemen.
Israel’s envoy to the UN Danny Danon addressing the UN, September 25, 2024. (credit: PERRY BINDELGLASS)
Iran, Danon said, is “the driving force behind Hezbollah’s aggression and the driving force behind the instability sweeping our region.”
Iran and its proxies
“As the head of the terrorist snake, Iran has spread its venom against innocent Israeli civilians – from the Houthis in Yemen attempting to strangle global trade to Hezbollah’s rocket barrages; from Hamas and [the] Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s practice of rape and kidnapping to the Shia militias in Syria and Iraq targeting Western personnel, the Ayatollah stands behind it all,” Danon stated.
“Every missile fired by Hezbollah, every drone launched by Iranian proxies, every act of terror on foreign soil, traces back to one source: the Islamic regime of Iran. It is the spider at the center of this web of violence, and until that web is dismantled, there can be no peace in the region,” he stated.
“Israel does not seek a full-scale war. We have made our desire for peace clear to all those who are not blinded by hatred and political agendas. However, Israel is under attack,” Danon said.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
END
ISRAEL/BEIRUT/ANALYSIS
Even with a potential wider-scale war looming, Israel has strategic advantages, experts say
Experts Prof. Uzi Rabi and Gen. Israel Ziv analyze Hezbollah’s intensified attacks, the role of Iran, and the potential for a broader Middle Eastern conflict.
By VERONICA NEIFAKH/THE MEDIA LINESEPTEMBER 25, 2024 23:17Updated: SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 23:20
Smoke billows from the site of an Israeli airstrike in Marjayoun, near the Lebanon-Israel border, on September 23, 2024. The Israeli military on September 23 told people in Lebanon to move away from Hezbollah targets and vowed to carry out more “extensive and precise” strikes against the Iran-back(photo credit: RABIH DAHER/AFP via Getty Images)
For the past several months, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated, with attacks on northern Israel happening almost daily. Hezbollah has steadily increased its rocket and drone barrages since October 2023, prompting Israel to respond with extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The conflict has led to the evacuation of over 90,000 Israelis from the north, with entire communities now displaced.
The Israeli military intensified its strikes on Monday, targeting over 400 Hezbollah positions, including rocket launchers and command centers. In return, Hezbollah fired over 300 rockets deep into northern Israel, many of which were intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome defense system.
The conflict took another alarming turn on Wednesday when Hezbollah launched a Qader-1 ballistic missile at Tel Aviv. The missile, which was intercepted by Israel’s David’s Sling defense system, targeted a Mossad installation. Many are left wondering if Israel and Hezbollah are on track to enter a full-scale war.
Prof. Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, spoke to The Media Line about how the regional context, especially Iranian influence, is shaping Hezbollah’s actions.
“Israel has inflicted a blow on Hezbollah—manpower, commanders, and its image both inside Lebanon and in the wider region,” Rabi said. “Iran is worried Hezbollah might take dramatic steps that could be irreversible for them. They don’t want to lose what they’ve built in Lebanon, nor do they want to get dragged into a full-scale regional war, which is against their interests.”
Smoke rises from Beirut southern suburbs, Lebanon September 20, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Mohamed Azakir TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
He explained that Iran is playing “both sides of the coin” in the conflict.
“On the one hand, they’re trying to drag Israel into a war of attrition in the north without escalating to a broader regional conflict. On the other hand, they’re waging a diplomatic war, hoping the US opts for a diplomatic solution,” he said. “Iran is gambling on the American administration’s preference for diplomacy.”
Israel Ziv, a retired general in the Israeli military, told The Media Line that Hezbollah is currently reassessing its strategy after heavy losses.
“They’re not sure of their own situation, mainly because they’ve lost so many people from their chain of command,” Ziv said. “First, they’re trying to realize their real situation—how much they’ve lost, not just in terms of people, but assets as well.”
Is the cost too high for Hezbollah?
He said that Hezbollah is now grappling with the unexpected cost of its attacks on Israel. “It’s far more than they anticipated,” he noted.
Iran doesn’t appear likely to get more directly involved in the conflict, which “is a huge disappointment” for Hezbollah, he said.
Rabi noted that Israel has used creative methods of warfare over the past 10 days. “Hezbollah is not used to this kind of modus operandi. Israel is keeping them on their toes. What’s happening now is a real surprise for Hezbollah,” he said.
He said that Hezbollah’s attack on a Mossad installation today crossed a red line for Israel.
Ziv said that despite the intense exchanges, the conflict hasn’t yet reached its full potential.
“Would I call this a full-scale conflict? No, not yet,” he said. “They’ve been trying to maintain a boundary at Haifa. After hitting one of their commanders, they fired a missile towards Tel Aviv, but it was more about sending a message.”
The public opinion in Lebanon regarding the conflict is mixed, Rabi said. “You can’t talk about the Lebanese people as a monolith. In Beirut’s southern suburbs, Hezbollah has its supporters, but many Lebanese—particularly in the north and places like Tripoli—are thrilled to see Hezbollah suffer losses,” he explained.
“They view Hezbollah as an Iranian proxy, and they see its weakening as a positive step for Lebanon’s future,” he added.
He said that the war had led to massive displacement of Lebanese civilians. “There are about half a million displaced, mostly Shiites, and they’re struggling to find housing. Hezbollah is using schools and civilian institutions to house them, but it’s too little, too late,” he said. “If Israel can escalate the friction between Hezbollah and the Lebanese people, it could further weaken the group.”
With the potential for wider-scale war still looming, Israel appears to have the strategic advantage, Ziv said. “The initiative is in Israel’s hands now. We’ve taken it from Hezbollah. If they continue to respond, we have many levels to go—there are several floors we can still climb. However, we’re not there yet,” he said.
He said that a cease-fire was achievable. “If [Hezbollah head Hassan] Nasrallah realizes the damage to his arsenal, and with American mediation, this could be an opportunity. He’s lost too much already,” he said.Ziv also expressed optimism about the return of displaced residents of northern Israel to their homes. But for that to happen, he said, Israel’s strategy regarding UN Resolution 1701 will have to change.
UN Resolution 1701 was passed in 2006 after 34 days of fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. Under that agreement, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to cease hostilities, and a UN force was tasked with ensuring that no armed groups other than itself and the Lebanese army operated south of Lebanon’s Litani River.
Israel will have to be “much more aggressive” in making sure Hezbollah doesn’t return to the blue line, the de facto border between Lebanon and Israel and the Golan Heights, Ziv said.
Rabi urged caution on the subject of a cease-fire.
“Israel shouldn’t rush to a cease-fire without learning the bitter lessons of October 7 and the last 18 years in the north,” he said. “Israel needs to achieve more military success to strengthen its position at the negotiating table. Displaced people from northern Israel would not feel secure unless Israel establishes a security zone in southern Lebanon to prevent future attacks.”
He noted that the current conflict is just part of a larger geopolitical struggle.
“Gaza versus Israel is just the tip of the iceberg,” he said. “This is part of a wider conflict involving Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other Arab states that want a different Middle East.”
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati speaks during a meeting of the Security Council, September 25, 2024, at UN headquarters. (AP Photo/Frank Franklin II)
The United States, France and some of their allies call for an immediate 21-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah while also expressing support for a ceasefire in Gaza, according to a joint statement of the countries released by the White House following an emergency UN Security Council meeting on Lebanon.
“The situation between Lebanon and Israel since October 8th, 2023, is intolerable and presents an unacceptable risk of a broader regional escalation,” says the statement, citing the date Hezbollah began launching attacks on northern Israeli communities and military posts following its ally Hamas’s October 7 massacres in southern Israel.
“This is in nobody’s interest, neither of the people of Israel nor of the people of Lebanon,” continues the statement. “It is time to conclude a diplomatic settlement that enables civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes in safety.”
The statement goes on to say that diplomacy “cannot succeed amid an escalation of this conflict,” before urging “an immediate 21 day ceasefire across the Lebanon-Israel border to provide space for diplomacy towards the conclusion of a diplomatic settlement.”
“We call on all parties, including the governments of Israel and Lebanon, to endorse the temporary ceasefire immediately… and to give a real chance to a diplomatic settlement.”
“We are then prepared to fully support all diplomatic efforts to conclude an agreement between Lebanon and Israel within this period, building on efforts over the last months, that ends this crisis altogether,” concludes the statement.
The statement’s other signatories are Australia, Canada, the European Union, Germany, Italy, Japan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.
The White House also releases a separate statement from Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, who met on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, urging “broad endorsement” of the joint statement and “for the immediate support of the governments of Israel and Lebanon.”
“It is time for a settlement on the Israel-Lebanon border that ensures safety and security to enable civilians to return to their homes. The exchange of fire since October 7th, and in particular over the past two weeks, threatens a much broader conflict, and harm to civilians,” the two presidents say. “We therefore have worked together in recent days on a joint call for a temporary ceasefire to give diplomacy a chance to succeed and avoid further escalations across the border.”
Neither of the statements mention Hezbollah or Hamas at any point.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/ANALYSIS
Israel is pounding Hezbollah, but in war the Iran-backed force will be a lethal foe
The bulk of the Lebanese group’s capabilities remains intact, and maneuvering IDF troops will have to contend with anti-tank missiles, mines, and drones — not to mention tunnels
Gunmen from the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah carry out a training exercise in Aaramta village in the Jezzine District, southern Lebanon, May 21, 2023. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)
The IDF has been hammering Hezbollah since the Lebanese terror group began firing over the border the day after Hamas’s October 7 invasion of southern Israel.
Hezbollah itself has named over 500 of its fighters killed in the year-long conflict. Israel has taken out the Shi’ite group’s top military figures, including its senior commander Fuad Shukr.
As Israel has ramped up its strikes on Hezbollah in recent days, it has hit the Iranian proxy even harder.
The explosion last week of thousands of Hezbollah’s communication devices put 1,500 fighters out of commission, a Hezbollah official told Reuters on Wednesday; Israel has not taken responsibility.
Last Friday, Israel eliminated many of the top commanders of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force. And it has been pounding Hezbollah rocket arsenals, though reports that Israel has taken out half of its capabilities are likely exaggerated.
Hezbollah’s response has been predictable, and not especially effective. It is firing hundreds of rockets at Israel a day, ramping up the range and number each day. But with Israel’s air defense capabilities and extensive shelter network, the attacks haven’t had a major effect on the Israeli public’s will to keep the fight going.
Israeli security forces and residents examine a house that was hit by a rocket fired from Lebanon, in Kibbutz Sa’ar, September 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Baz Ratner)
Israelis should not be fooled, however. Hezbollah remains a potent adversary that has yet to employ most of its arsenal, and if the fight reaches a ground invasion — as Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi is indicating it will — the IDF can expect to face an adversary far more dangerous than Hamas in Gaza.
Military transformations
Like Israel, Hezbollah saw the indecisive 2006 Second Lebanon War as a wake-up call for the need to transform its military capabilities quickly.
“Over these 18 years, Hezbollah wasn’t planting trees and building houses in Lebanon,” said Brig. Gen. (res.) Tzvika Haimovitz, former commander of Israel’s Air Defense Forces.
Israeli soldiers return from southern Lebanon on August 14, 2006, after a UN-imposed ceasefire went into effect bringing an end to the Second Lebanon War. (Pierre Terdjman/Flash90)
“Hezbollah built itself a semi-army. I know many militaries around the world, but I don’t know many that have the capabilities that the Hezbollah terror group has.”
One of Hezbollah’s main efforts has been the enhancement of its rocket and missile capabilities.
According to official IDF assessments from before the war began last October, Hezbollah had over 200,000 rockets, mortars, and missiles.
Illustrative – Rockets fired by Hezbollah from southern Lebanon are intercepted by the Iron Dome air defense system over the Upper Galilee region in northern Israel on August 23, 2024. (Jalaa Marey/AFP)
According to a March report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Hezbollah now has 40-80,000 short-range unguided rockets with ranges up to 20 kilometers, and some 60-80,0000 long-range unguided rockets that can reach 100 kilometers.
Its ballistic missile arsenal is smaller, but can reach much further into Israel. Hezbollah has up to 40,000 ballistic missiles with ranges from 160-300 kilometers, a few dozen Scud missiles that can reach 500 kilometers, and several hundred precision Fateh-110 ballistic missiles that can deliver a 500 kg warhead a distance of 300 kilometers.
The dense Tel Aviv area is less than 150 kilometers from the border with Lebanon.
Hezbollah has invested significantly in the survivability of its rocket and missile capabilities. It has mobile launchers mounted on trucks, missiles stored in civilian homes, and an extensive bunker and tunnel network.
Hezbollah propaganda video appearing to show underground missile facility in Lebanon. August 16, 2024 (Screenshot)
In an all-out war, Hezbollah would use its firepower in a number of ways. As it did in 2006, it would use its unguided rockets against population centers to erode the public’s will and trust in the government, and to disrupt the functioning of the country.
Its smaller precision arsenal would target IDF bases, troops concentrations, and strategic civil infrastructure deep in the country.
Hezbollah could potentially use its massive short-range arsenal to provide cover for an attempt to invade northern Israel and capture a town or military installation.
And Hezbollah would try to make its rockets last, to show its resilience in the face of Israeli attacks.
View of the water cooling tower at the Haifa oil refinery in Haifa, July 31, 2022. (Shir Torem/Flash90)
“They have to use them wisely,” said Aiman Mansour, a former National Security Council official. “They can’t fire them all in the early days.”
Well-honed drones
Another area of intensive investment, especially over the past year, has been its drone capabilities.
“Hezbollah identified that it is a challenge for us, and that our response isn’t as good,” explained Haimovitz.
Hezbollah has over 10 different kinds of drones, from commercial quadcopters to large attack UAVs.
This photo taken from a position in northern Israel shows a Hezbollah drone intercepted by Israeli air defense over north Israel on August 25, 2024 (Jalaa Marey / AFP)
In a war, they would perform the full range of drone tasks, including surveillance on maneuvering troops, spotting for Hezbollah rockets and mortars, airstrikes on IDF forces in Lebanon and in Israel, and suicide attacks on troop concentrations.
Its most capable drones are the Iranian Shahed 129, with the ability to carry two 34-kg precision bombs some 2,000 kilometers. The Karrar drone has a smaller range, but can carry two 125-kg bombs.
However, it’s not the high-end drones that worry Israel the most.
An Iranian Shahed-129 drone is displayed at a rally in Tehran, Iran, February 11, 2016. (Ebrahim Noroozi/AP)
“The bigger they are, the more lethal, the easier they are to bring down,” said Haimovitz.
“We have been dealing with the drone problem for months,” said Mansour. “Especially low-flying ones. They have a real advantage with short-range drones.”
Since October 7, Hezbollah has enjoyed an influx of drones from Iran, and has been using them to study Israel’s air defenses.
And they’ve been improving.
“Hezbollah probes for weaknesses in Israel’s defenses, and erodes Iron Dome interceptor stocks, by launching growing numbers of drones recently,” said Jonathan Ruhe, director of foreign policy at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America.
This video grab from AFPTV taken on April 14, 2024, shows explosions lighting up Jerusalem sky as Israeli air defenses respond to an Iranian attack on Israel. (AFPTV/AFP)
They’d likely try tactics employed by Russia to evade Ukrainian air defenses, similar to what Iran unsuccessfully deployed against Israel in its April attack.
“More than any single weapon or the sheer size of their arsenals, it’s their ability to overwhelm and evade Israel’s air defenses by launching mass swarms of precision missiles and drones mixed with lots of unguided rockets,” said Ruhe. “These salvos would be bigger than Iran’s April 14 attack, and would offer less early warning, given the much shorter distances.”
Iran, and perhaps Russia, are working to enhance Hezbollah’s air defense capabilities to challenge Israel’s dominance of Lebanon’s skies.
Their high-end capabilities are the Russian-made SA-17 and SA-22 mobile surface-to-air missile systems.
In this April 20, 2017 file photo, a Hezbollah fighter holds an Iranian-made anti-aircraft missile, right, as he takes his position with his comrade, left, between orange trees, at the coastal border town of Naqoura, south Lebanon. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla, File)
Israel is working to take them out, and would continue to prioritize its air defense batteries in a war.
Though Hezbollah has managed to down Israeli drones, Israel’s air force is quite capable of handling Hezbollah’s air defenses. It has been dealing successfully with advanced Russian-made systems over Syria for years.
“We can see it today, Israel is operating in Lebanon without any limitations,” said Haimovitz. “You have to recognize the threat, but it’s not something that limits you from operating.”
Tanks and anti-tanks
If Israel does maneuver into southern Lebanon, it will have to contend with Hezbollah’s advanced anti-tank capabilities.
An Israeli Merkava tank equipped with a TROPHY system is seen during Operation Protective Edge in 2014. (CC BY 2.0, IDF Spokesperson Unit, Wikipedia)
Hezbollah has thousands of RPGs it would use to swarm IDF armor and their Trophy active defense system, along with more advanced missiles.
It possesses ample stockpiles of Kornet missiles, among the best Russian anti-tank guided missiles.
In August 2023, Hezbollah unveiled in military exercises its Tharallah system, which uses two Kornets. The system is specifically designed to defeat the Trophy by firing both its missiles within less than a second, too quickly, its designers hope, for the Israeli countermeasure to track and destroy the second missile.
Ilustrative. A Kornet anti-tank guided missile is fired in a Russian military exercise. (Russian military/Wikimedia)
Hezbollah also has Iranian Almas missiles, said Mansour, which were reverse-engineered from Israeli Spike missiles left behind by IDF forces in the Second Lebanon War. The most advanced model allows anti-tank teams to target vehicles well beyond the line of sight.
In Gaza, Hamas has managed to damage hundreds of IDF tanks and APCs, but only a few dozen were taken out of service for any significant period of time, according to Maariv.
The challenge in Lebanon will be much greater, and it is reasonable to expect that some tanks will be destroyed.
Israeli forces will also have to deal with a range of IEDs and mines which detonate against less protected parts of a tank and against which the Trophy system is irrelevant.
IDF soldiers under the Givati Brigade stand atop a tank in eastern Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, in a handout picture released on May 10, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
And despite the beeper operation and airstrikes this month, the vast majority of Hezbollah’s light infantry force is intact. Though Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah boasts about 100,000 fighters, the ranks are probably half that size, including reserves. But its full-time fighters are well-trained, and after years of combat in Syria, have serious battlefield experience.
They will enjoy the inherent advantages of a defender, including prepared defensive positions and a deep tunnel network that approximates national infrastructure projects in full-fledged states.
All of those capabilities are a far cry from what Hezbollah has employed thus far. Nasrallah’s strategy is still attrition of Israel’s will and maintaining the linkage between Lebanon and Gaza, not a full-blown war.
“We haven’t seen Hezbollah’s full capabilities,” warned Haimovitz, “and Hezbollah hasn’t seen our full capabilities.”
end
ISRAEL/ HEZBOLLAH/THIS MORNING
Hezbollah sends over half of country into shelters, IDF keeps up pressure
Hezbollah’s rockets reach Tel Aviv and Eilat as Israel ramps up strikes on Lebanon, preparing for a potential ground invasion amid rising casualties.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBSEPTEMBER 25, 2024 22:31Updated: SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 22:54
An Israeli anti missile system intercept rockets fired from Lebanon, near the Israeli border with Lebanon, northern Israel, September 4, 2024.(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
Hezbollah sent more than half of the country scurrying into bomb shelters on Wednesday due to aerial attacks that targeted Tel Aviv, Zichron Ya’acov, and other areas that it had not yet threatened in the current war.
While there were no deaths and few direct hits – in relative terms – from the salvos of around 100 rockets, rocket sirens covered the country as it is not always clear where a rocket might hit, especially the long-range ones.
Only one long-range rocket was fired at Tel Aviv early Wednesday morning, which was shot down by David’s Sling, the IDF’s mid-range aerial defense layer in between the Arrow (long-range defense) and Iron Dome (short-range defense).
About five rockets were fired at the Zichron Ya’acov area. Some were intercepted and some landed in open areas.
Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system operates for interceptions as rockets are launched from Lebanon towards Israel, amid cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel, as seen from Haifa, Israel, September 23, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Ronen Zvulun)
All fronts are still active
The IDF confirmed on Wednesday evening that two UAVs were detected in the airspace above Eilat. One drone was intercepted by the Israel Navy Sa’ar 5 corvette, while the second drone struck Eilat.
Magen David Adom (MDA) paramedics provided medical treatment to a 68-year-old man with minor injuries from glass shards, while a 28-year-old man sustained minor injuries to his hands. Both were taken to the hospital, were given tetanus shots, and were expected to be released later that night.
Pro-Iranian proxy group, Islamic Resistance in Iraq, said it was responsible for the attack on Eilat on Wednesday evening.
Hezbollah’s increased firing range comes after five days when a third of the country in the North – including Haifa—has been under attack. This comes after around 11 months of attacks affecting “only” the areas very close to the border.
Two people were wounded at Kibbutz Sa’ar near Nahariya after a barrage of 30 rockets shot towards the Western Galilee and east of Haifa.
According to MDA, a 35-year-old man was seriously wounded by shrapnel in his upper body and a 52-year-old man was moderately wounded. Both were taken to the Galilee Medical Center in Nahariya for treatment.
Approximately 40 rockets were fired at Safed, one of which struck an assisted living facility in the area, the IDF announced on Wednesday. No casualties were reported.
Safed has had occasional sirens until now, but this week it was battered far worse than it had been for the last 11 months, making it look more like the front lines of northern border towns, which have been mostly evacuated since October 2023, after Hezbollah initiated aerial attacks in a show of solidarity with Palestinians in Gaza.
Since that early morning rocket and by press time, there have been no additional rockets fired at Tel Aviv, potentially signaling that Hezbollah was demonstrating its capabilities but not yet moving to a full assault.
IDF busy at work
While Hezbollah increased its firing range on Wednesday, the IDF kept up heavy pressure on the Lebanese terror group – though reduced compared to Monday.
IDF spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari updated the country on Wednesday night that over 2,000 Hezbollah targets – including hundreds of terrorists – had been struck so far in Lebanon. Included in these are those involved in the strikes on Safed and Nahariya.
Hagari also said that nearly 70 Hezbollah intelligence centers were also struck, including the organization’s intelligence headquarters and a variety of rockets and other terror assets.
More specifically, according to the IDF, the 60 attacks on Hezbollah’s intelligence network will immediately and directly impact the group’s ability to collect intelligence, coordinate intelligence efforts, and hurt its various tools for evaluating the broader battlefield picture.
A map of those areas attacked showed many targets in southern Lebanon – a few deep into the Bekaa Valley, a few in central Lebanon, and one on the west coast.
The simultaneous attack appeared focused on achieving shock and confusion across Lebanon.
Hagari also showed several photos of rocket storage and launch sites located in civilian homes.
In several pictures, the distinct grid pattern of the launchers is clearly visible in the rubble.
“The weapons used in these attacks – including advanced, strategic missiles and UAVs – have been systematically embedded by Hezbollah inside Lebanese civilian areas and homes over the years,” Hagari said.
Attacking Hezbollah’s intelligence network
Given the blow to Hezbollah’s communications from the beeper and walkie-talkie explosions since the middle of last week, as well as the numerous top commanders killed since Friday, bringing down Hezbollah’s intelligence network could leave it substantially blind on the developing battlefield.
This could make it harder for Hezbollah to know which rockets can still be fired and which have been destroyed, and make it more difficult to defend against a future potential IDF ground invasion.
IDF Northern Commander Maj.-Gen. Uri Gordin told his forces on Wednesday that “we need to be very ready to go into action and to invade” Lebanon in the rising escalation against Hezbollah.
Speaking to the 7th Armored Brigade, Gordin emphasized that their actions must change the security reality for Israel’s 60,000 northern residents who have been evacuated from their homes for nearly a year.
Gordon added, “We have entered a new phase in the conflict, and now we are fighting as part of Operation Northern Arrows,” the official name given to the operations in Lebanon. It “began with very harsh strikes against Hezbollah’s capabilities, with an emphasis on its [long-range] firepower, as well as significant harm to its commanders and operatives.”
Likewise, IDF chief of staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi told the 98th Division and 7th Armored Brigade that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) was clearing the way for a potential ground invasion.
He said that, very soon, “your military boots for the invasion could enter enemy territory, villages which Hezbollah set up as its military position, with its tunnels, lookouts, and vectors [with which] to raid our territory… you would enter with force, and in the encounter with Hezbollah operatives there, they will see what it means to encounter professional and talented fighters.”
Thickening the northern border
The IDF also announced on Wednesday that it was calling up two additional brigades to reinforce the two divisions on the northern border.
While some interpreted this move as another imminent sign of an invasion, two divisions and two brigades are still less than half of the five full divisions the IDF used to invade Gaza.
Earlier on Wednesday, former IDF intelligence chief Amos Yadlin suggested that the military should wear down Hezbollah with air power for two weeks – before beginning a ground forces invasion.
However, other sources told The Jerusalem Post that the key parts of any ground invasion should be wrapped up by around the start of November so as to avoid major maneuvers in Lebanon’s mountainous winter weather.
Yet other sources have said that an invasion grows increasingly likely and could happen faster than expected. However, the plan, as of Wednesday, remains to wait a period of a week or two for a diplomatic solution – now that the IDF has flexed its muscles.
Western powers are still hoping to convince Israel to forego a ground invasion in favor of diplomacy.
Meanwhile, all IDF political and defense officials acknowledged that even in the event of a ground invasion, eventually diplomacy will be needed to solidify any long-term gains from the use of military force.
Lebanese Health officials said that on Wednesday alone, 51 Lebanese people were killed and 223 were wounded, raising the total death toll since last week to over 600.
Reuters contributed to this report.
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
ISRAEL/QATAR
Despite the fact that they host Hamas and fund many of terrorist. activities, the USA will entertain a waiver program for this Arab state
/Qatar Becomes 1st Arab State To Join US Visa Waiver Program Despite Warm Hamas Ties
The US has said it will waive visa requirements for citizens of Qatar, making the gas-rich Gulf state the first Arab country, and only the second Muslim-majority country, to join a network of states with expedited travel to the US.
The US Department of Homeland Security said on Tuesday that the Gulf monarchy cleared the “stringent security requirements” to become the 42nd member of the US’s visa waiver program. The agreement “will deepen our strategic partnership and enhance the flow of people and commerce between our two countries,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.
Qatar’s population stands at just 2.6 million, of whom only a tiny fraction – around 313,000 – are citizens. The US visa waiver program is mainly reserved for wealthy western European and Asian states. Israel was added to the program last year.
Qatar has a GDP per capita of $87,661, which is roughly $10,000 above the US’s. US officials said they were open to other Gulf Arab nations eventually entering the program. The only other Muslim-majority country in the program is the Southeast Asian nation of Brunei.
Qatar is also a key US ally. It is home to al-Udeid, the largest US air base in the Middle East and the forward operating headquarters of all US forces in the region also known as Centcom. Roughly 10,000 US troops are based in Qatar.
In January, the Biden administration reached a deal to extend its stay at the base for another 10 years. Qatar diligently guards its partnership with the US.
Doha previously weathered a blockade by neighbors UAE, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain over its alleged ties to the Muslim Brotherhood, among a host of other reasons. Qatar has since patched up ties with Riyadh, but relations with Abu Dhabi remain frosty and they are aiding different sides in Sudan’s civil war.
Qatar remained close to Republican and Democratic administrations by demonstrating its value to the US. It helped the US fly out thousands of Afghan allies as the Taliban seized control of the country. More recently, it has mediated alongside Egypt for an elusive ceasefire in Gaza.
While Qatar enjoyed good ties with the Biden administration, it has come under some pressure from members of Congress who are irked by its relationship with Hamas.
Hamas was based in Damascus, Syria, until 2012, when it fell out with the Syrian government over the country’s civil [proxy] war. Qatar agreed to host the exiled leadership at the request of the US to maintain an indirect line of communication with the group, Qatari officials say.
In June, The Wall Street Journal reported that both Qatar and Egypt warned Hamas officials that they face possible arrest, freezing of their assets, sanctions and expulsion from Doha if they don’t agree to a ceasefire with Israel.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/zero hedge/Thursday morning
Netanyahu Orders Military To Fight Hezbollah At ‘Full Force’, Rules Out Ceasefire
Thursday, Sep 26, 2024 – 09:35 AM
Despite optimistic Wednesday headlines from US media touting a White House push for ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, there proved no substance to the reports, given just a day later Israel has rejected the proposals for a ceasefire in Lebanon.
“There will be no ceasefire in the north,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced on X. “We will continue to fight against the Hezbollah terrorist organization with all our strength until victory and the safe return of the residents of the north to their homes.”
With heavy US diplomatic involvement, Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati expressed hope for soon achieving a ceasefire, following the deaths of at least 550 Lebanese.
The United States, the EU, France, the UK and other nations have issued a formal call for an immediate 21-day ceasefire across the Israel-Lebanon border. This came out of intense discussions at the United Nations in New York. But this has been quickly shot down as the situation on the ground continues to slide.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has warned that ‘hell is breaking lose in Lebanon’ – according to a Wednesday statement:
According to the U.N., nearly 200,000 people in Lebanon had been internally displaced as of yesterday, while more than 60,000 people in northern Israel have also been displaced from their homes.
“I implore the Council to work in lock-step to help put out this fire,” the U.N. chief told ambassadors as he warned that an all-out war “must be avoided at all costs” and “would surely be an all-out catastrophe.”
But it increasingly looks like the feared all-out war is already here. Troops of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have been rehearsing for a ground invasion.
All-out war seems already here, given casualty rates and intensity of the exchange of fire:
The order could come at any moment after Prime Minister Netanyahu said Thursday the military will keep fighting at “full force” – brushing off calls for ceasefire:
Troops of the IDF’s 7th Armored Brigade have wrapped up a drill simulating a ground offensive in Lebanon, the military says.
According to the IDF, the drill took place several kilometers from the Lebanon border, and simulated ground operations and combat in “complex and mountainous terrain.” The drill was the latest in a series carried out by the IDF for a potential ground offensive in Lebanon.
Reuters also confirms of Netanyahu’s commitment on taking the fight to Hezbollah that as he’s heading to New York to address the UN, he “said he had not yet given his response to the truce proposal but had instructed the army to fight on.” Additionally, “Hardliners in his government said Israel should reject any truce and keep hitting Hezbollah until it surrenders.”
Photo circulating on X of latest Thursday IDF strike on Beirut:
Currently, Israel says it is hitting Beirut with more ‘precision strikes’. Aerial assaults on the capital have been slowly growing more frequent, as have strikes deep into the Bekaa Valley, where it’s believed Hezbollah stores much ammunition and missiles.
Several recent attacks on the southern suburbs of Beirut have killed multiple Hezbollah high-ranking commanders, but along with them scores of civilians as well.
Video coming in of another strike by #Israel in the #Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh today. There are reports that the target of the Israeli airstrike in Beirut is the head of Hezbollah's aerial forces. pic.twitter.com/bqCAryxNy9
Below are some of the latest developments in Lebanon and Gaza via Al Jazeera:
Israeli army says it has launched strikes on Beirut with sources saying a Hezbollah commander was the target.
The Israeli PM’s office has released a statement on Netanyahu’s X page saying the “news about a ceasefire is not true” and he vows to carry on attacks on Lebanon.
On Wednesday, 72 people were killed in the attack across Lebanon as the death toll from Israel’s bombings surpassed 620.
Israel has continued its assault across Gaza as well, killing at least 15 Palestinians today.
At least 41,495 people have been killed and 96,006 wounded in Israel’s war on Gaza. In Israel, the number killed in the Hamas-led attacks on October 7 is at least 1,139, while more than 200 people were taken captive.
Footage posted to social media shows scenes from a ‘targeted’ IDF airstrike in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, in the Dahiyeh suburb, a known Hezbollah stronghold, September 26, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces/X; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)
An airstrike killed a senior Hezbollah leader in a strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Thursday afternoon, the military said, with fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed terror group showing little sign of slowing as an international bid to secure a ceasefire appeared to fall apart.
The strike in the Hezbollah stronghold of Dahiyeh targeted the head of Hezbollah’s aerial forces, Mohammed Srur, who is largely responsible for the terror group’s drone fleet along with cruise missiles and aerial defenses.
Lebanon’s health ministry said two people were killed in the attack.
According to the military, Srur directed and commanded numerous and various aerial attacks on Israel, including explosive-laden drones and cruise missiles.
In recent years, the IDF said, he led Hezbollah’s drone manufacturing, and established sites in Lebanon where the terror group would build explosive UAVs, some of which were under civilian buildings in Beirut.
Srur joined Hezbollah in the 1980s, and held various positions, including in the terror group’s air defenses, in the Aziz unit in the Radwan Force, and as Hezbollah’s attaché to Yemen where he was involved in the Houthis’ aerial forces, according to the military.
During the war he advanced numerous explosive drone attacks on Israel, as well as surveillance drones, the IDF said.
A damaged building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Sept. 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
The attack marked at least the fourth time Israel has targeted the group’s top commanders in recent days, including a Tuesday strike on rocket and missile chief Ibrahim Qubaisi and a Friday attack on Ibrahim Aqil, the head of Hezbollah’s military operations. Both were killed.
Following the assassination of Srur, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said the military must continue to strike the terror group.
“We need to continue attacking Hezbollah. We have been waiting for this opportunity for years,” Halevi said following an assessment, in remarks provided by the IDF, hinting that the military is against a ceasefire at this stage.
“We are constantly working to make achievements, to eliminate more senior officials, to thwart the transfer of weapons, to [destroy] Hezbollah’s firepower [capabilities], and to attack it in all of Lebanon,” he added.
Also Thursday, Israel said its warplanes had pounded targets across southern Lebanon and on the Syria-Lebanon border, and Hezbollah fired over 175 rockets at northern Israeli cities.
A volley of some 45 rockets toward the coastal Israeli city of Acre Thursday morning ended a rare 19-hour lull in Hezbollah fire at northern Israel that had briefly bolstered hopes for an internationally brokered halt to the fighting.
The IDF said several of the rockets were intercepted and the rest landed in open areas. Videos showed some projectiles splashing into the Mediterranean Sea.
תיעוד יוצא דופן: 25 רקטות שוגרו לעכו, נפילה אחר נפילה בים במהלך המטח @_Gitsis_
Another 10 rockets were fired at Kiryat Shmona a short time later, the IDF said, and Hezbollah claimed it fired volleys of Falaq-2s at the city. A single rocket launched toward Safed around the same time was swatted down by air defenses, the army said.
Another 85 rockets were launched at the Safed and Mount Meron area in the afternoon hours, causing no injuries.
In the evening, 25 more rockets were fired at the Lower Galilee. The IDF said the rockets all hit open areas, but one person, a 45-year-old man, was moderately wounded by shrapnel, according to medics.
People run to take cover in a safety zone in Israel’s northern city of Safed, on September 26, 2024, during a rocket attack from Lebanon amid fighting between Israel and Hezbollah. (Menahem KAHANA / AFP)
Earlier, Lebanese officials said an overnight Israeli airstrike on a building housing Syrian workers and their families killed up to 23 people near Baalbek on the Lebanon-Syria border, marking one of the deadliest single strikes reported in the intensified air campaign against the Hezbollah terror group.
This picture shows the site of an Israeli airstrike on the Syrian side of the Matraba crossing between Lebanon and Syria, on September 26, 2024 in Qaa, eastern Lebanon. (AFP)
Ali Qusas, the mayor of Younine, said most of the dead in the strike on a three-story building in the town were women and children. Lebanon is home to around 1.5 million Syrians who fled civil war there, though thousands of Lebanese have fled to Syria in recent days.
This picture shows the destruction in a area targeted overnight by Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon’s town of Saksakiyeh, on September 26, 2024.(Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)
There was no comment on the strike from Israel, which said it hit around 75 Hezbollah targets overnight in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, a Hezbollah stronghold near the Syrian frontier.
The targets included terrorists, military buildings, and weapons depots, the army said, publishing footage of the strikes.
מטוסי קרב של חיל האוויר, בהכוונת אגף המודיעין ופיקוד הצפון, תקפו במהלך הלילה כ-75 מטרות טרור של חיזבאללה במרחב הבקעא ובדרום לבנון, בהם מחסני אמצעי לחימה, משגרים מוכנים לשיגור לעורף ישראל, מבנים צבאיים, מחבלים ותשתיות צבאיות של הארגון>> pic.twitter.com/Hj1VaI1eLy
The Israeli Air Force later on Thursday carried out a strike on the Lebanese-Syria border, targeting infrastructure that the IDF said was used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons. The military said the weapons smuggled into Lebanon from Syria have been used against Israel.
Lebanese transport minister Ali Hamieh told Reuters that the strike hit the Syrian end of a small bridge that provides a crossing into Lebanon. Hamieh said he did not immediately know whether the crossing was still usable.
Israel says it takes pains to avoid civilian casualties, warning Lebanese to leave areas where Hezbollah could be housing weapons before launching its intensified campaign on Monday, which largely targeted residential buildings.
A cloud of smoke erupts during an Israeli airstrike on a village outside Tyre in southern Lebanon as the IDF pounded Hezbollah targets on September 26, 2024. (Photo by Kawnat HAJU / AFP)
The IDF has accused Hezbollah of using civilians as human shields by hiding missiles and other weapons in homes.
On Wednesday, it published before-and-after images of homes it had struck in recent days in the villages of Maifadoun, Houmayri, Baraachit and Tayr Debba, which it said showed evidence that Hezbollah had stored munitions and rocket launchers inside them.
Images released by the IDF on September 25, 2024, showing a home in the Lebanese village of Houmayri before and after Israeli airstrikes days before, exposing that Hezbollah was storing munitions and rocket launchers in them. (Israel Defense Forces)
Following a report that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had ordered the army to pare back its attacks as international efforts to secure a ceasefire took shape, his office issued a denial, saying fighting there and in Gaza was continuing at full force.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz later said Israel would not be halting its offensive, amid widespread opposition in Israel to a ceasefire that critics said would allow Hezbollah to regroup while keeping Israel’s north under constant threat.
On Wednesday, IDF chief Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi and Northern Command head Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin told troops to prepare for a possible ground invasion, hours after Hezbollah fired a long-range missile at Tel Aviv for the first time.
“Your military boots will enter enemy territory, enter villages that Hezbollah has prepared as large military outposts, with underground infrastructure, staging points, and launchpads into our territory [from which Hezbollah intends] to carry out attacks on Israeli civilians,” Halevi said.
A home hit by a Hezbollah missile in the northern city of Safed, September 25, 2024. (David Cohen/Flash90)
The army also said Wednesday afternoon that it was calling up two reserve brigades to be deployed to northern Israel.
Israel says it has carried out sorties against over 2,000 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon since Monday, aiming to halt nearly a year of rocket attacks on northern Israel that the group began launching on October 8 in support of Hamas.
Hezbollah says at least 512 of its fighters have been killed since fighting began on October 8. The IDF believes this toll to be much higher.
Over 600 people have been killed in Lebanon since Monday, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between civilians and combatants.
END
ISRAEL//HEZBOLLAH
No deal and there was never one!
Israel’s position is clear: Hezbollah is to pull back from to the Latani River, then both sides will stop their bombing.
Bibi Embarrasses Biden Once Again: What Ceasefire In Lebanon?
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 04:34 PM
Update(1634ET): Netanyahu’s trip to the United States has quicky proved embarrassing for the Biden administration. The first thing the Israeli prime minister did after landing in the US was quickly walk back a ‘private understanding’ with the Biden administration that he would publicly vouch for the US-proposed 21-day ceasefire plan in Lebanon. But the opposite happened.
On Thursday Netanyahu made it crystal clear that there will be no ceasefire in Lebanon. Axios has confirmed the walk-back as follows:
The prime minister’s change, which comes after public threats by far-right ministers in his government and attacks by Israeli opposition leaders, could increase tensions with the Biden administration.
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said: “The announcement about the temporary ceasefire in Lebanon was published in coordination with Israel. We don’t believe an all-out war in Lebanon is the answer.”
U.S. officials said the understanding was the prime minister would say publicly he "welcomes" the initiative. But when Netanyahu landed in New York he changed course and said the fighting will continue https://t.co/eWmU6GSdgQ
Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute think tank had this to say: “It is not that Netanyahu is playing Biden. It is that Biden lets Netanyahu play him over, and over, and over again.”
Indeed this has been the constant pattern when it comes to the much touted Gaza truce which has never happened despite Blinken constantly proclaiming the US was “at the goal line” in terms of making it happen.
* * *
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
RUSSIA/USA
Putin Lowers Threshold Of Nuclear Weapons Use In Dramatic Warning Aimed At NATO
WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 09:45 PM
At a moment the West – especially the US and UK – are still mulling whether to allow Ukraine forces to attack Russian territory using NATO-provided long-range missiles, President Vladimir Putin has just issued a hugely significant statement regarding his country’s nuclear doctrine.
Putin on Wednesday very clearly lowered the threshold regarding Russian strategic forces’ use of nukes. He in a televised address to Russia’s Security Council said nuclear doctrine has been effectively revised in light of the “emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies.” This is clearly in response to the latest series of escalated cross-border attacks from Ukraine deep into Russian territory. Some of these have threatened to hit Moscow.
He went on to describe that in the event Western powers assist another nation in a major attack on Russian soil, those same Western powers will also be held responsible. This can trigger Russian nuclear launch, according to the new doctrine. This lowers the bar for what can be considered an ‘existential threat’ against the Russian homeland and its population.
Putin laid out, according to a translation: “The updated version of the document proposes that aggression against Russia by any non-nuclear-weapon state, but with the participation or support of a nuclear-weapon state, should be considered as a joint attack on the Russian Federation.”
While not stating that this would automatically greenlight the ability of Russia to respond with nuclear weapons, he did assert that the threshold for their use would be met based on “reliable information about a massive launch of aerospace attack means and their crossing of our State border.”
He then included defense of Belarus as being part of the change: “We reserve the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against Russia and Belarus as a member of the Union State,” Putin said.
The below is a paraphrase of Putin’s words and some further details of the changes by state-run RT:
Moscow would also “consider” resorting to a nuclear response if it gets “reliable information” about a “massive” missile or air strike launched by another state against Russia, or its closest ally, Belarus, according to Putin. The weapons used in an enemy’s potential strike could include anything from ballistic or cruise missiles to strategic aircraft and drones, he stated.
The timing of this dramatic and serious alteration in nuclear policy is without doubt aimed at Zelensky’s visit to the United States, where he is presenting Ukraine’s ‘victory plan’ separately to President Biden, VP Harris, as well as Donald Trump.
Zelensky has stressed that a key component of this plan is to have the West lift all restrictions of use of long-range weapons. Ukraine’s long-range cross border attacks have already been somewhat devastating, given dozens of oil and gas depots, airfield, and ammo storage sites have been hit over several months. Zelensky wants to inflict greater pain on Russia directly, in hopes at building more leverage for favorable settlement to the war.
Biden days ago responded that “no” – nothing has yet changed regarding Washington’s policy on all of this. Putin’s Wednesday words are timed to keep up the pressure on the US, and to ensure there’s no new greenlight given for Kiev’s use of things like the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) or British Storm Shadows.
⚡️PUTIN: WE RESERVE THE RIGHT TO USE NUCLEAR WEAPONS IN CASE OF AGGRESSION AGAINST RUSSIA AND BELARUS⚡️
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed significant updates to Russia’s nuclear strategy, citing the rapidly evolving global military-political situation. These changes… pic.twitter.com/KSLqyAOEp0
Of course, Putin’s prior warning earlier this month should have been enough to dissuade saner minds in the West. He said before that “This would in a significant way change the very nature of the conflict.” At the time he spelled out that long-range missile strikes on Russia “would mean that NATO countries, the US, European countries, are at war with Russia.”
Even should Biden resist the drive to escalate further in the face of Putin’s fresh nuclear warnings, it remains to be seen what the next administration will do, whoever occupies the White House. Trump in particular has been the only candidate to strongly voice that the US must prioritize peace negotiations to urgently end the war. Harris is expected to continue Biden’s policies, which have resulted in an ongoing escalation slide.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
Rockers Freddie Salem (the Outlaws), J.D. Souther (the Eagles), Juan ‘Brujo’ (Brujería); evangelist Randy Shepherd; film critic Felix Vasquez Jr.; author Nelson DeMille; & more
Outlaws guitar legend Freddie Salem passes away following cancer battle
September 23, 2024
Legendary guitarist for the Outlaws, Freddie Salem, has passed away following a battle with cancer. The sad news was shared via Freddie’s Facebook page this morning by Den Zon. Den Zon states: “I write this with a broken heart, and I’m at a lost for words. This morning at 10:15 AM the world lost an incredible musician and a great friend Freddie Salem, former Outlaws guitarist as well-known session player throughout the world. (Freddie) passed away from complications of cancer. About a year ago he came to me and told me he was sick and asked me not to say a word and I promised him I wouldn’t. He opted not to do any treatments because it was livercancer and he said there was really no cure or help.”
Legendary songwriter J.D. Souther passed away at 78
September 20, 2024
J.D. Souther, a prolific songwriter known for his contributions to the Eagles, passed away at the age of 78 on Tuesday. His publicity team confirmed that he diedat his home in New Mexico, but no further details were provided.
Juan ‘Brujo’, the singer of Brujería who Donald Trump wanted to silence by sending the FBI to his home, dies
September 19, 2024
After the death of another member of the Mexican band this summer, its leader has died at the age of 61 from a heart attack. Juan ‘Brujo’, the singer of the metal band Brujería, died in an Ohio hospital after suffering a heart attack during the group’s current tour of the United States with Gwar. He is the second member of the group to die of heart problems this summer, after the death last July of Ciriaco Quezada, ‘Pinche Peach’, who was in charge of the samplers and choirs.
Actor and comedian Peter Scolari remembered three years after his tragic death from cancer
September 17, 2024
New York, NY – It’s been three years since the tragic death of Peter Scolari, a veteran yet youthful actor and comedian, who initially found mainstream fame opposite Tom Hanks on ABC’s 1980s sitcom, Bosom Buddies. He later broadened that fame with a regular role on Newhart (CBS, 1982–1989). He died from leukemia on October 22, 2021, at only 66 years old.
This Saturday the death of Luis Ledesma Pérez, artistically known as Ledesma, one of the first exponents of urban music in the Dominican Republic. Ledesma reportedly passed away this Saturday, September 21 in New York. His musical legacy, which includes unforgettable hits like “El Llorón ”, will continue to live in the hearts of his followers. The artist, born on February 20, 1963, left an indelible mark on the music industry.
Randy Shepherd, co-founder of Crossfire Ministries in Asheville, NC, passed away on Thursday, September 19, 2024, according to associates. Shepherd and Johnson founded Crossfire Ministries 34 years ago, focusing on spreading the message of Jesus Christ through sports. No cause of death has been revealed, but Shepherd had recently undergone emergency surgery.
Longtime Bloody Disgusting contributor Felix Vasquez Jr. has passed away
September 20, 2024
Bloody Disgusting is deeply sad to learn the news that a member of our community has passed away this week. A longtime BD writer, Felix Vasquez Jr., was just 41 years old. The website Cinema Crazed, which was founded by Felix, reports this week, “Felix Vasquez Jr., the film critic and publisher of the Cinema Crazed website, passed away today at Lincoln Hospital in the Bronx, New York, at the age of 41 after a brief illness.”
Nelson DeMille, a prolific writer renowned for his suspense and action novels, has passed away at the age of 81. The writer died on September 17 from esophagealcancer, as confirmed by his family to CBS News. “Nelson fought a valiant nine-month battle with esophageal cancer. True to form, he faced this ordeal with courage, grace, and good humor,” his family told the outlet. “We are grieving, but also celebrating his wonderful life and his lasting legacy as a father, friend, and storyteller.”
CNN Anchor Alisyn Camerota says husband Tim Lewis has died two years after pancreatic cancer diagnosis
September 20, 2024
CNN anchor and political commentator Alisyn Camerota has revealed that Tim Lewis died on July 27, just two months before their 23rd wedding anniversary. He was 58 years old. According to Camerota, 58, her husband and the father of their three kids died “two years after being diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer,” she wrote on Instagram on Friday, Sept. 20.
It is with heavy hearts that we report the death of former News 19 anchor Melissa Riopka, who died Saturday after a battle with acute myeloid leukemia. She was 48 years old. She grew up in Cullman, and in 1995, while attending the University of Alabama, she interned at News 19. Melissa worked at stations in Chattanooga and Birmingham before deciding to call Huntsville, AL, home. Melissa left television news in 2022 and went to work for the city of Huntsville.
Basketball world mourning Bamberg Cup hero Peter Cole
September 22, 2024
Bamberg, Germany, is mourning one of its cup heroes from 1992: Peter Cole passed away on September 2 at the age of 63in his home in Charlottesville, VA, after a short, seriousillness.
Attorney and former Michigan State football LB Adam Decker tragically passes away at age 37
September 17, 2024
Michigan State football lost a beloved member of its community this week. Over the weekend, former MSU linebacker Adam Decker tragically passed away at age 37, a sad fact that was confirmed on Tuesday by former MSU strength and conditioning coach Ken Mannie on social media. “Details are his passing are not publicly available at this time and we keep our thoughts with his family and friends during this time,” Mannie wrote.
Track and field athlete, 23, passes away during a cross-country race
September 21, 2024
Nefertari Holston, a 23-year-oldWesleyan cross-country runner, tragically lost her life while competing in a long-distance event. On Saturday morning, Holston was brought to Atrium Health Nacivent after suffering a massive cardiac arrest while competing in a track and field contest at Middle Georgia State.
Mystery as billionaire investor Daniel Reiner, 72, is found dead in his private lake
September 17, 2024
Investigators are examining the body of a billionaire bio-tech magnate who was found deadin a lake on his sprawling and secluded Washington estate. Police were called after Daniel Reiner, 72,disappeared from his home north of Spokane, WA, on the evening of August 30, but a search was abandoned as night fell. Cadaver dogs were drawn to the lake when the search resumed at first light and the 72-year-old’s body was found in the 200-ft deep waters at 3 pm on August 31. Police found no signs of trauma or foul play.
contacts! “Death has also been reported in unvaccinated contacts accidentally infected by individuals who have been vaccinated.” You read that 100% correct! If you come into contact, you could die!
Our biggest challenge is that the GAY and BI-SEXUAL community can expand monkeypox into the general low-risk heterosexual monogamous population by engaging in high-risk sexual behaviour. IMO there is no need for any vaccine in the high-risk GAY or BI-SEXUAL community but what is needed is proper PSAs to the high-risk group, warning of no multiple partners, no bathhouses, no intimate skin-to-skin contact that could burst the infectious boils and pustules on anuses and skin etc.
The background on the vaccine is very frightening especially to unvaccinated in contact with vaccinated persons:
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
“ACAM2000 contains live vaccinia virus that can be transmitted to persons who have close contact with the vaccinee and the risks in contacts are the same as those for the vaccinee.”
‘Not only is death listed as a “serious complication” but alarmingly the FDA’s own medication guide states: “ACAM2000 contains live vaccinia virus that can be transmitted to persons who have close contact with the vaccinee and the risks in contacts are the same as those for the vaccinee.”
Meaning that even people who come into close contact with someone who has been vaccinated could possibly die. The packaging insert even states this: “Death has also been reported in unvaccinated contacts accidentally infected by individuals who have been vaccinated.”
According to the CDC:
ACAM2000 is a second-generation vaccine that contains a live vaccinia virus that replicates efficiently in humans. It is manufactured by Emergent Bio Solutions and is indicated for the prevention of smallpox. It has been made available for use against mpox in the clade II outbreak under an Expanded Access Investigational New Drug (EA-IND) protocol,which requires informed consent along with completing additional forms. ……Although the United States has a large supply of ACAM2000, this vaccine has more side effects and contraindications than JYNNEOS.
Notably, on the vaccine information sheet for the other small pox-turned-mpox vaccine, JYNNEOS, it reads: “CDC recommends consideration of the vaccine for people who administer ACAM2000®, or who care for patients infected with orthopoxviruses.”’
WATCH: Kamala just learned the word ‘holistically’ and it’s CRINGEWhile Kamala Harris was doing her interview with her surrogate propagandist Stephanie Ruhle today, Kamala decided that she’d try to sound like she knows what she’s doing and began using the word ‘holistically. And she kept using it over and over. Watch: Kamala appears to have just learned the word “holistically.” pic.twitter.com/lMpxWEg3aB — Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) September 25, 2024 …READ THE FULL REPORT
UNSHOCKER: Iran threatens to back Hezbollah in war with Israel “with all means”Iran’s Foreign Minister said that the biggest supporter of terrorism, who already backs Hamas and Hezbollah (and the Houthis), would back Hezbollah “with all means” in war with Israel: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says the Middle East is facing a “full-scale catastrophe” and warns Tehran will back Lebanon by “all means” if fighting between Israel and the Iran-backed Hezbollah …READ THE FULL REPORT
FDA Admits Monkeypox mRNA Vaccines Kill UnvaccinatedThe Biden-Harris admin’s U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has admitted that its recently-approved monkeypox mRNA vaccine can kill those who receive it as well as unvaccinated people who come into “close contact” with the vaxxed.READ THE FULL REPORT
Feds finally charge Ryan Routh with Attempted Assassination of President TrumpRyan Routh has finally been charged with attempting to assassinate President Trump by federal prosecutors, along with assaulting a federal officer and possessing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of violence. Judge Aileen Cannon has also been randomly assigned to the case. BREAKING: Ryan Routh charged with Attempted Assassination of a Major Presidential Candidate. — Aishah Hasnie (@aishahhasnie) September …READ THE FULL REPORT
WATCH: Nancy Pelosi snaps at Jake Tapper for covering something Trump said about KamalaCNN’s Jake Tapper mentioned that President Trump believes Kamala Harris has bigger cognitive problems than Joe Biden and the despicable Nancy Pelosi did not like it one bit. She immediately protested that Tapper would even bring that up and told him in so many words not to do it again: Crazy Nancy Pelosi SNAPS at Jake Tapper for reading President …READ THE FULL REPORT
Journal Under Pressure to Retract Study on Adverse Effects of COVID VaccineA vaccine manufacturer in India has filed a defamation lawsuit against researchers and the editor of an international journal after they published a study reporting adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination. The study focused on Covaxin, one of India’s homegrown vaccines, and found that serious adverse events might not be uncommon and could persist for a significant period. The manufacturer demanded …READ THE FULL REPORT
LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
Rabobank: MSNBC Won’t Ask Kamala The Tough Questions, But Gold Has All The Answers
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 12:15 PM
By Michael Every of Rabobank
Yesterday’s speech and interview from VP Harris to explain her economic plans didn’t generate headlines in the economic press. As her interlocutor MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle admitted afterwards, “One could watch and say she didn’t give a clear and direct answer. And that’s OK, because we’re not talking about clear and direct issues.” Just the US economy!
Ruhle: "One could watch and say she didn't give a clear and direct answer. And that's okay, because we're not talking about clear and direct issues."
I was going through the transcripts of the speech and interview to dissect them and contrast their policies with the radical ones proposed by Trump when I suddenly realized: why bother? The Harris presidential campaign clearly doesn’t want to clarify what an “Opportunity Economy” means beyond the $6,000 (first child), $25,000 (first home), and $50,000 (small business) tax credits we’ve known about for weeks. The financial and mainstream media don’t care that they don’t have any details either. Moreover, neither do markets, which are talking about anything but what was said in Philadelphia yesterday. Perhaps voters don’t either – and we will only know in November.
As Ruhle had said on the Bill Maher show days before her Harris economy chat: “So let’s say that you don’t like her answer. Are you going to vote for Donald Trump? Kamala Harris is not running for perfect. She’s running against Trump. We have two choices. And so, there are some things you might not know her answer to. And in 2024, unlike 2016 for a lot of the American people, we know exactly, exactly what Trump will do, who he is, and the kind of threat he is.” Ruhle then concluded, “to democracy.” For markets, it’s to free trade; low inflation; the ability to set high interest rates independently; US public debt; the green agenda; big pharma; big food; and US foreign policy and global security.
It wasn’t too long ago that on Bill Maher’s show Stephanie Ruhle said that Kamala Harris didn’t need to tell us who she was because we already know who Donald Trump is. She then gives Kamala Harris a recorded puff piece interview and Kamala couldn’t answer the questions. Funny… pic.twitter.com/Vs6ybVAAA8
Perhaps that’s why -beyond the entrenchment of collective ADHD as the infotainment TikTok generation rises- we aren’t getting the nuanced debate about massively important issues that we should be, even as the 2024 election appears increasingly Manichean.
All I can say to markets is when faced with a binary choice, one of which could mean status quo ante or big changes, and the other implying staggering changes, it might be worth asking if this is just another US election cycle, yadda-yadda, or if it requires a few more questions to be asked. Not to one political side, but to both. And to oneself, about one’s own balance sheet.
For now, the march higher in gold prices is doing a lot of the questioning, and talking, for us.
Meanwhile, if markets don’t have time to consider the full scale of what this presidential election could bring in 2025, they certainly don’t have time to consider geopolitics. Let me let you into a little secret: geopolitics doesn’t go away even if the Fed cuts another 50bps! Shocking, I know.
As one key example, that worrying US East Coast port strike is days away from happening, bringing logistics chaos, shortages, and inflation. For what it’s worth, online betting markets were last showing around a 95% chance that this strike happens. One would think financial markets would notice that kind of price action. But why bother, right? Just wait for it to happen and then write about it.
As another example, it was just reported that multiple sources are now saying Iran has acted as middleman to broker a deal for Russia to supply the Houthis with advanced anti-ship missiles with a 300km range and hypersonic speed. Were this to transpire, the current crisis in the Red Sea and Suez would get exponentially worse: more chaos, more shortages, more inflation. And, joining dots, if this is the low-cost Russian strategy to disrupt the Western economy, over time, why would such missiles not make their way to pro-Russian militias on the east and west coasts of Africa? Then all commercial shipping from Asia to Europe trying to avoid the Red Sea would be a target. Again, why bother emergency planning for this when one can talk about another 50bps Fed cut?
As a third example, the White House and France are proposing a three-week ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, to which Israel has already agreed in principle. However, it is making it 100% clear that at the end of the period Hezbollah stops all military activity and withdraws from South Lebanon in line with UN resolution 1701, which Hezbollah, and UN observers on the ground ignore, or else it reverts to systematically destroying the militia by air. Indeed, Israel is beginning preparations for a ground operation, though this is more likely aimed at forcing a diplomatic solution for now. The problem is that Hezbollah is unlikely to comply.
That points to the larger Middle East war we have been presenting as a logical fat tail risk since October 7. Obviously, this would involve Israel and Hezbollah. There is regional chatter that after Iran-backed Iraqi militias just fired another missile at Israel, Iraqi oil facilities could perhaps be targeted. Moreover, the strategic logic, if not the immediate political dynamic, would be for Israel to target Iranian oil facilities, removing their ability to finance the Houthis and Hezbollah, and perhaps their nuclear programme – which Iran is trying to again woo Europe with talks over.
Of course, this is not a geopolitical or energy forecast. Indeed, our secular energy forecast from Joe DeLaura and Florence Schmitt was just updated lower for good reason. But perhaps you might want to bother considering these kind of risk scenarios if you have a free moment away from dreaming of intra-meeting 50bps Fed cuts.
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
Canadas health system deteriorating rapidly!
40 Percent of Canadian Nurses Leave Profession Before Age 35: Report
(Philip)
A health-care worker is seen outside the Emergency Department of the Vancouver General Hospital in Vancouver on March 30, 2020. Jonathan Hayward/The Canadian Press
Forty percent of nurses in Canada leave the job before they turn 35 years old, a new study has found.
The report, published on Sept. 24 by the Montreal Economic Institute (MEI), said that for every 100 Canadian nurses who started working in the field in 2022, 40 nurses below the age of 35 quit. The number has increased 25 percent since 2013.
“This exodus of young nurses has been worsening for the past decade, contributing to our health care woes.” said MEI economist and co-author of the publication, Emmanuelle B. Faubert, in a news release.
The report said that based on these numbers, Canada is on its way to seeing a shortage of 117,600 nurses by 2030.
A Canadian Federation of Nurses Unions (CFNU) survey found the most common reasons nurses leave is due to staffing levels, workload, and a lack of work-life balance.
In 2023, nine out of 10 nurses reported some amount of burnout, the survey said. Four out of 10 nurses indicated they were planning to leave the profession, quit, or retire in the next 12 months.
CFNU said that guaranteeing more days off, adding flexibility to scheduling, and lowering taxes would help to keep nurses on the job longer.
How the Provinces Rank
The severity of the issue varies across Canada, with the east coast provinces seeing the highest number of nurses leaving.
In New Brunswick, 80 out of every 100 nurses leave the profession—a 51 percent increase from 2013. Nova Scotia saw a 42 percent increase, with 60 out of every 100 nurses leaving. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the number was 50 percent, an increase of 4 percent since 2013.
However, Prince Edward Island was one of three provinces that saw a drop in the number of young nurses leaving the job. Forty-four out of 100 nurses left, which is a 14 percent decrease from 2013.
Alberta saw 47 percent of nurses leave, which is 39 percent higher than 2013 statistics.
Quebec ranked fifth, with 43 young nurses leaving for every 100 nurses that entered the profession in 2022, representing a 29 percent increase over 2013 numbers. In Saskatchewan and Ontario, that number was 35. While it represents a 4 percent drop in the number of nurses leaving the job in Saskatchewan, it was an 82 percent increase for Ontario.
British Columbia saw the biggest improvement in the number of nurses leaving the health-care industry with 31 nurses out of 100 leaving, a 32 percent drop from 2013.
Manitoba saw the least number of nurses leaving at 29 out of every 100, which was an 11 percent increase from a decade earlier.
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1115 UP 0.0022
USA/ YEN 144,33 DOWN 0.380 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE TRYING TO RE ESTABLISH
GBP/USA 1.3378 UP .0065
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3451 DOWN 0024 (CDN DOLLAR UP 24 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 104.65 PTS OR 3.61%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 795.48 PTS OR 4.16%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 1.08%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 795.48 PTS OR 4.16%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 104.65 PTS OR 3.61%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 1.08%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1055.37 POINTS OR 2.79%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2678.50
silver:$32.58
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 100.44 DOWN 19 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP AT 7.011 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (6.993)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.15 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.833
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 3.795% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.131 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.6000 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2661.40
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.92
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 14.06 PTS OR 0.17%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 78.13OR 0.41%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN. 38.39 PTS OR 0.50%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 44.40 OR 0.38%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 40.42 OR 0.12%
WTI Oil price 67.37 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 71.11 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 92.62 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 12/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1570 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0420 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.011 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.783 DOWN 2
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1173 UP 0.0045 OR 45 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3412 UP 0.0098 OR 98 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.012 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.836
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 144.88 UP 0.166 DOWN 17 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3470 DOWN 0.0015 CDN dollar UP 15 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 67.41
Brent OIL: 71.33
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 3.8020
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.132%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 7 PTS AT 3.627
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.042 UP 1 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.829 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.32 DOWN 30 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.15 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 92.62 DOWN 0 AND 12/100 roubles
GOLD 2,672.70 3:30 PM
SILVER: 32.02. 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 260.00PTS OR 0.36%
NASDAQ UP 142.93 PTS OR 0.72%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.37 DOWN 0.04 PTS OR 0.26%
GLD: $246.98 UP 1.25OR 0.51%
SLV/ $29.26 UP 0.20 OR 0.69%
end
USA AFFAIRS
TODAY’S TRADING IN GRAPH FORM
Big-Tech & Beijing’s Bazooka Spark Surge In Stocks, Gold, & Crypto Ahead Of PCE
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 04:00 PM
The risk-on sentiment prevailing today can likely be chalked up to three developments: guidance raise by MU, deepening of the monetary easing cycle round the globe, and supportive data on the domestic front.
MU. In a surprise move, MU raised top and bottom line guidance (reported after market yesterday), highlighting a robust AI environment and recovery in traditional servers. The stock is up over 15% on the back of these results, with other semis stocks also gaining, as investors continue to buy into the AI secular growth theme.
In Europe, the Swiss National Bank cut policy rate by 25bp, and Goldman now expects another cut at the December meeting.
Goldman also expects the ECB to speed up the pace of rate cuts to consecutive steps.
Interestingly, as the rest of the world enters ‘easing’ mode, the US markets priced in a less dovish easing cycle today (with 2024 now back below 3 more rate cuts priced in)…
Source: Bloomberg
Strong data at home. Finally, we also received a flurry of data today that allay concerns about the US economy: Real GDP growth was unrevised at 3.0% annualized in the second quarter consumers are saving more than expected, and initial jobless claims also declined.
Source: Bloomberg
The sum of all that was decent gains for the US majors with Nasdaq leading overnight but fading back to join the rest by the US open…
AI-related stocks soared (thanks to MU)…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the AI gains, Mag7 stocks overall were practically unchanged – after testing new highs intraday…
Source: Bloomberg
Most Shorted stocks were squeeze hard at the cash open but selling pressure hit shortly after….
Source: Bloomberg
But, without a doubt, China was the focus today with the HXC Index +10% post the fiscal stimulus announcement with Goldman’s trading desk noting that it was 3x better to buy in ADRs with a flurry of activity from both LOs and HFs.
Source: Bloomberg
Of course, with China stimulating, US data improving, The Fed cutting, and physical inventories plunging, it makes perfect sense that crude oil prices would plunge today (on some anonymously sourced malarkey around OPEC+ production increases)…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold continued its charge to new highs, hitting $2685 intraday today…
Source: Bloomberg
The roller coaster in FX markets continued too with the USD giving back much of yesterday’s gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -1bps, 2Y +6bps), but all yields are now higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin surged back above $65,000 for the first time since July…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, is this the start of Bitcoin’s breakout to new highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold has certainly shown the other alternate currency the way (and now Beijing is back in the game).
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Initial Jobless Claims Drop Back Near Multi-Decade Lows
Thursday, Sep 26, 2024 – 08:43 AM
Just a week after The Fed slashed rates by a crisis-like 50bps, initial jobless claims tumbled back towards multi-decade lows (217k)…
Source: Bloomberg
Texas and New York saw the biggest drops in initial claims…
Continuing claims ticked up modestly to 1.834mm Americans…
Source: Bloomberg
If claims have any value in reality, then it seems unemployment rates are set to drop further…
Source: Bloomberg
Does that look like an economic background that prompts The Fed to almost unanimously decide to cut rates by 50bps?
III USA ECONOMIC COMMENTARIES
Does The Gen Z “Doom Spending” Trend Explain Why Retail Sales Haven’t Collapsed Yet?
WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 10:10 PM
Increasing retail sales have been constantly held up over the past couple of years by the establishment media and Democrats as a sign that “Bidenomics” is actually working. Given that almost every other statistical indicator used to support Bidenomics has proven false, it’s fair to suspect that the retail data is also rigged. But what if it’s not?
There is of course the problem of inflation skewing retail numbers to the upside. You rarely hear mainstream analysts mention that little issue when they swoon over America’s “retail rebound.” CNN recently lauded the data as a “sales surge” and a sign of the US economy’s strength.
However, there is another little known social factor beyond inflation that might help explain why retail spending hasn’t completely collapsed despite most major indicators showing the US entering a recession with shades of stagflation.
Why did retail data print so strong over the summer when manufacturing plunged and the July jobs report triggered the Sahm Rule, which is now used by central banks as an early sign of an impending recession? Perhaps because a certain subset of consumers are engaging in a counterintuitive trend called “Doom Spending.”
According to psychologists, doom spending is when a person mindlessly shops to self-soothe because they feel pessimistic about the economy and their future. The practice is apparently a growing habit among younger generations in today’s stagflationary climate. Economic theory has long held that high inflation and high interest rates will force consumers to save instead of spend, thereby reducing demand and lowering prices over time. Except this is not happening.
A whopping 96% if Americans are worried about today’s economy. Over 27% of respondents (most of them Gen Z and Millennials) to a recent survey conducted by Qualtrics and commissioned by Intuit Credit Karma admitted to “doom spending,” and 32% have taken on more debt in the last six months. US consumer debt stats reveal the true nature of this disastrous trend.
New York Fed research shows US credit card debt at all time highs; a record $1.14 trillion. Total US household debt has hit record highs, holding at $17.3 trillion, and rose by 4.3% from Q2 2023 to Q2 2024.
Keep in mind, this debt is accumulating under much higher interest rates than before the pandemic, and the money is buying less because of inflation. The mindset makes no sense. It’s actually digging Americans further into poverty with inevitably more stress and depression attached, but that’s probably why they call it “doom spending.”
The US economy is far from recovery. In fact, it’s continuous decline is being misrepresented as a “rebound” partly because of the bizarre habits of a contingent of American consumers.
Doom spending helps to explain a number of inconsistencies in current retail data and also presents a disturbing reality – That almost 30% of the US consumer population has no plans to prepare for the future and is incapable of mentally adapting to sour financial conditions. In other words, they refuse to take responsibility for their own personal survival.
It’s a sure bet that this is the same 30% of the population who avidly defend the progressive socialist policies promoted by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They likely hope (or expect) they will be bailed out by government spending in the near future. But what if that doesn’t happen? Will they roll over and starve quietly, or, will they riot in the streets out of spite?
end
NYC Mayor Eric Adams Hit With Historic Federal Indictment
WEDNESDAY, SEP 25, 2024 – 09:16 PM
New York City Mayor Eric Adams has been indicted on federal criminal charges, marking a historic first for the city as he becomes the first sitting mayor to face such charges. The specifics of the charges remain shrouded in secrecy due to a sealed indictment, the NY Times reports.
Adams, a retired NYC police captain, became the city’s 110th mayor nearly three years ago after campaigning on a promise to reduce crime and revitalize the city. While that never panned out, he notably talked massive shit about the Biden administration not doing anything about the growing migrant problem over the last year.
Last November, the feds seized Adams’ electronic devices just days after he searched the Brooklyn home of his chief fundraiser. His aides claim he’s been cooperating with authorities, while Adams himself maintains that he did nothing wrong.
Meanwhile, several people in Adams’ orbit have been the subjects of federal corruption investigations.
Hours before the indictment, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) called on Adams to resign over the “flood of resignations and vacancies” that “are threatening gov function.”
I do not see how Mayor Adams can continue governing New York City.
The flood of resignations and vacancies are threatening gov function. Nonstop investigations will make it impossible to recruit and retain a qualified administration.
A pre-indictment Adams responded with the race card, saying “I’m really surprised to hear her call for the resignation of the second black mayor in the city,” and calling her comments “noise.”
Kamala Harris declared in Tuesday’s debate that a vote for her is a vote “to end the approach that is about attacking the foundations of our democracy ’cause you don’t like the outcome.”
She was alluding to the 2021 Capitol riot, but she and her party are also attacking the foundations of our democracy: the Supreme Court and the freedom of speech.
Several candidates for the 2020 presidential nomination, including Ms. Harris, said they were open to the idea of packing the court by expanding the number of seats.
Mr. Biden opposed the idea, but a week after he exited the 2024 presidential race, he announced a “bold plan” to “reform” the high court. It would pack the court via term limits and also impose a “binding code of conduct,” aimed at conservative justices.
Ms. Harris quickly endorsed the proposal in a statement, citing a “clear crisis of confidence” in the court owing to “decision after decision overturning long-standing precedent.” She might as well have added “because you don’t like the outcome.” Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D., R.I.) has already introduced ethics and term-limits legislation and said Ms. Harris’s campaign has told him “that your bills are precisely aligned with what we are talking about.”
The attacks on the court are part of a growing counterconstitutional movement that began in higher education and seems recently to have reached a critical mass in the media and politics.
The past few months have seen an explosion of books and articles laying out a new vision of “democracy” unconstrained by constitutional limits on majority power.
Erwin Chemerinsky, dean of the UC Berkeley law school, is author of “No Democracy Lasts Forever: How the Constitution Threatens the United States,” published last month. In a 2021 Los Angeles Times op-ed, he described conservative justices as “partisan hacks.”
In the New York Times, book critic Jennifer Szalai scoffs at what she calls “Constitution worship.” She writes: “Americans have long assumed that the Constitution could save us; a growing chorus now wonders whether we need to be saved from it.” She frets that by limiting the power of the majority, the Constitution “can end up fostering the widespread cynicism that helps authoritarianism grow.”
In a 2022 New York Times op-ed, “The Constitution Is Broken and Should Not Be Reclaimed,” law professors Ryan D. Doerfler of Harvard and Samuel Moyn of Yale called for liberals to “reclaim America from constitutionalism.”
Others have railed against individual rights. In my new book on free speech, I discuss this movement against what many professors deride as “rights talk.” Barbara McQuade of the University of Michigan Law School has called free speech America’s “Achilles’ heel.”
In another Times op-ed, “The First Amendment Is Out of Control,” Columbia law professor Tim Wu, a former Biden White House aide, asserts that free speech “now mostly protects corporate interests” and threatens “essential jobs of the state, such as protecting national security and the safety and privacy of its citizens.”
George Washington University Law’s Mary Ann Franks complains that the First Amendment (and also the Second) is too “aggressively individualistic” and endangers “domestic tranquility” and “general welfare.”
Mainstream Democrats are listening to radical voices. “How much does the current structure benefit us?” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D., N.Y.) said in 2021, explaining her support for a court-packing bill. “I don’t think it does.” Kelley Robinson, president of the Human Rights Campaign, said at the Democratic National Committee’s “LGBTQ+ Kickoff” that “we’ve got to reimagine” democracy “in a way that is more revolutionary than . . . that little piece of paper.” Both AOC and Ms. Robinson later spoke to the convention itself.
The Nation’s Elie Mystal calls the Constitution “trash” and urges the abolition of the U.S. Senate. Rosa Brooks of Georgetown Law School complains that Americans are “slaves” to the Constitution.
Without countermajoritarian protections and institutions, politics would be reduced to raw power. That’s what some have in mind. In an October 2020 interview, Harvard law professor Michael Klarman laid out a plan for Democrats should they win the White House and both congressional chambers. They would enact “democracy-entrenching legislation,” which would ensure that “the Republican Party will never win another election” unless it moved to the left. The problem: “The Supreme Court could strike down everything I just described, and that’s something the Democrats need to fix.”
Trashing the Constitution gives professors and pundits a license to violate norms. The Washington Monthly reports that at a Georgetown conference, Prof. Josh Chafetz suggested that Congress retaliate against conservative justices by refusing to fund law clerks or “cutting off the Supreme Court’s air conditioning budget.” When the audience laughed, Harvard’s Mr. Doerfler snapped back: “It should not be a laugh line. This is a political contest, these are the tools of retaliation available, and they should be completely normalized.”
The cry for radical constitutional change is shortsighted. The constitutional system was designed for bad times, not only good times. It seeks to protect individual rights, minority factions and smaller states from the tyranny of the majority. The result is a system that forces compromise. It doesn’t protect us from political divisions any more than good medical care protects us from cancer. Rather it allows the body politic to survive political afflictions by pushing factions toward negotiation and moderation.
When Benjamin Franklin said the framers had created “a republic, if you can keep it,” he meant that we needed to keep faith in the Constitution. Law professors mistook their own crisis of faith for a constitutional crisis. They have become a sort of priesthood of atheists, keeping their frocks while doffing their faith. The true danger to the American democratic system lies with politicians who would follow their lead and destroy our institutions in pursuit of political advantage.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
Port Of New York-New Jersey Details Strike Operations Plan
The second-busiest U.S. ocean container port urged shippers to wind down cargo business less than a week before a strike deadline set by union dockworkers.
Strike preparations are underway at the Port of New York-New Jersey, Port Director Bethann Rooney said in a letter to customers, offering details on operational plans during the stoppage.
The International Longshoremen’s Association representing 25,000 members in container and roll-on/roll-off services covered under the current master contract will walk off the job when the contract with port employers represented by the United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) expires at midnight Oct. 1. The pact covers workers at three dozen ports from Maine to Texas handling some $92 billion worth of freight each year.
No contract negotiations are scheduled. Major issues are wages, benefits and port automation.
The union on Monday termed the latest wage offers “stingy” and disputed claims by USMX that the union is demanding wage hikes of more than 75% over a proposed six-year agreement.
Few details about any contract proposals have been made public. Neither the ILA nor USMX immediately responded to requests for comment Tuesday.
“[I]t is important that you do everything possible to pick up your import cargo before close of business on Monday, Sept. 30 as there will be no opportunities to deliver any cargo once a strike begins,” Rooney said in the letter released Monday.
Rooney said the port plans to establish an Incident Management Team for the duration of any work stoppage but offered no immediate details.
“Export cargo will not be accepted at any of the terminals unless it can be loaded onto a vessel prior to Sept. 30,” Rooney continued. “Coordinate closely with your ocean carrier on any export bookings as cargo will not be accepted at the terminals for vessels scheduled to arrive after Sept. 30.”
Shippers should prioritize refrigerated containers and hazardous materials cargo, which will not be monitored or adjusted after next Monday.
“We expect heavy congestion toward the end of the week and on Monday, Sept. 30 as parties seek to remove containers from the terminal prior to the potential shutdown, so we recommend picking up your containers as early as possible this week and utilizing all available gate hours,” Rooney advised.
Terminal operators APM Terminals, Maher and Port Newark Container Terminal will have extended gate hours.
The last trains for imports and exports are scheduled for Monday.
The last CSX (NASDAQ: CSX) train will arrive at the port on Sunday. Norfolk Southern (NYSE: NSC) earlier announced gate closures across a number of ports and said shippers should make alternate plans for moving hazardous, high-value and refrigerated international shipments, to avoid unexpected delays en route.
The port’s Truck Service Center will be closed for the duration of the work stoppage.
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
An October surprise is usually defined as the well-known (and more often left-wing) tactic of manufacturing or unloading a news story right before voting to surprise a rival without allowing them time sufficiently to respond or recover.
Think of the last-minute bombshell disclosure, five days before the 2000 election, that candidate George W. Bush had been cited for drunk driving over a quarter-century earlier. That surprise may have cost Bush the popular vote that year.
Sometimes, an incumbent can use his powers of office to warp the election. Joe Biden benefited before the 2022 midterm elections when leftist activists leaked the impending Supreme Court repeal of Roe v. Wade.
Closer to the actual voting, Biden sought to cancel hundreds of billions of dollars of student debt owed to the federal government. He also began draining the strategic petroleum reserve to lower gas prices (as he is doing again this election year as well). No wonder the predicted Republican midterm red wave ended up a tiny ripple.
More often, October surprises are more ad hominem and unleashed on a rival candidate’s supposedly previously undisclosed failings.
At the end of the 2016 campaign, Hillary Clinton’s team leaked news of her purchased bogus “Steele Dossier” as supposed proof of Trump-Russian “collusion.”
On the eve of the last 2020 presidential debate, Joe Biden delegated now Secretary of State Antony Blinken to work with former interim CIA Director Mike Morrell to round up “51 former intelligence authorities.” They were to lie that the incriminating Hunter Biden laptop was likely a product of a Russian intelligence “disinformation” operation.
The ruse worked – turning potential proof of Biden family corruption into a replay of the fake 2016 Trump-Russian collusion hoax.
This time around, apparently the Harris campaign could not wait until October or early November to spring their surprises.
Perhaps the Harris campaign’s impatience is due to Democratically-inspired radical changes to state voting laws.
Remember that in 2020, under the cover of COVID, Democrat legal teams got state laws altered to institutionalize early and mail-in voting in key states. Those changes reduced our once iconic Election Day into a mere construct when only 30 percent of voters cast their ballots.
So, former October surprises—both the embarrassing disclosures and the use of incumbency to warp the election—are now becoming earlier and more frequent preemptive “September” shocks.
Suddenly, the Federal Reserve Bank, just 50 days before the election, decided that interest rates that spiraled under Biden-Harris in reaction to their hyperinflation right now need to be slashed—as supposed proof that the Biden-Harris inflation is now over and the economy needs a sudden revving up.
Just as abruptly, on September 23, just 43 days before Election Day, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was flown by the Biden-Harris administration—at U.S. government expense—into the United States.
More amazingly, Zelensky landed first in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, where most observers believe the currently deadlocked election will be decided.
No surprise, Zelensky immediately toured a Pennsylvania munitions plant making artillery shells likely destined for his Ukraine—at a time when the state’s voters are concerned about job losses.
The Harris-Biden administration was sending the not-so-subtle message that providing billions of dollars in arms to Zelensky’s Ukraine translates into jobs for voting Pennsylvanians.
But that was not all to this crass September surprise.
In an interview with the left-wing pro-Biden-Harris New Yorker magazine, Zelensky plunged right into the current neck-and-neck presidential race. He trashed Harris’s rival Donald Trump as someone who “doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how.”
Not satisfied with that putdown, the Ukrainian president hit even harder Trump’s running mate and vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, as “dangerous” and “too radical.”
The left still talks nonstop about nonexistent 2016 Trump-Russia “collusion” and equally bogus 2020 Trump-Russian “disinformation.”
Yet it would be hard to define any clearer “election interference” than the current Zelensky surprise.
After all, has any vice president incumbent running for president ever flown in a foreign leader on a U.S. military jet to the one key U.S. state that will likely decide the impending election?
And furthermore, has any paraded him around that state’s weapons export plant while he trashed current Vice President Harris’s two opponents with invectives like “dangerous” and “radical?”
And why else was Zelensky’s Pennsylvania trip arranged by the Biden-Harris administration but to coincide with the traditional dates that mail-in and early-voting balloting start?
Yet were the Zelensky sudden Pennsylvania drop-in and his crude domestic politicking and trashing of Trump and Vance all that wise?
After all, Harris’s opponent Donald Trump had just escaped an assassination attempt from a pro-Ukrainian gunman—furious over Trump’s purported preference for a negotiated settlement to the 30-month-long, one-million-casualties war?
Add it all up, and sometimes September surprises backfire—when they appear to voters as crude and insulting rather than just conniving.
END
SWAMP STORIES
WOKISM MEANS YOU GO BROKE
DISNEY
Disney Layoffs Reportedly Underway As Several Hundred White-Collar Workers Face Cuts
THURSDAY, SEP 26, 2024 – 12:35 PM
Go woke, get broke.
According to sources cited by Deadline, Disney is pushing ahead with new layoffs as part of a broader “cost-saving initiative.” About 300 employees across Disney’s corporate divisions will be impacted this week.
The layoffs of 300 employees began on Tuesday and will continue until the end of the week. They are all US-based employees who work across the company’s corporate operations, including legal, HR, finance, and communications.
“We continually evaluate ways to invest in our businesses and more effectively manage our resources and costs to fuel the state-of-the-art creativity and innovation that consumers value and expect from Disney,” a Disney spokesperson wrote in a statement to Deadline.
The spokesperson noted, “As part of this ongoing optimization work, we have been reviewing the cost structure for our corporate-level functions and have determined there are ways for them to operate more efficiently.”
Today’s cuts follow minor layoffs at Disney Entertainment Television in late July. In 2023, Disney conducted massive cuts, upwards of 7,000 jobs, or about 3.2% of its global workforce.
In markets, Disney shares have been rangebound between $120 and $80 since the mid-point of 2022.
Putting woke ideology ahead of entertainment has destroyed an American institution.
KING REPORT
The King Report September 26, 2024 Issue 7335
Independent View of the News
China Cuts One-Year Policy Rate by Most Ever in Stimulus Drive – BBG 0:42 ET 9/25/24 PBOC lowers rate on medium-term loan facility (MLF) to 2% from 2.3% MLF trim is prelude to more easing measures to lift economy
Why is China freaking out and going berserk with stimulus? Pundits are whispering that China believes Trump will win and DJT’s ‘fair trade’ policy is coming.
Mr. Bond was unhappy, again, on Wednesday. USZs traded mostly negative from the Nikkei opening until they rallied from 124 27/32 at 1:32 ET to the daily high of 125 6/32. USZs then commenced an intractable decline that hit a daily low of 124 8/32 (-25/32) at 11:26.
Someone once again pushed USZs higher into a Treasury Auction. USZs hit 124 18/32 at 12:47 ET, 13 minutes before the $70B auction of 5-year notes. The 3.519% yield was the same as the WI; Bid-To-Cover Ratio 2.38, Primary Dealers 11.46%, Direct Bids 18.23%, and Indirect Bids (foreign) 70.31%.
USZs then fell to 124 9/32 at 13:22 ET. After a modest bounce, USZs fell to a new low of 112 4/32.
ESZs traded modestly higher from the Nikkei opening until they broke down at 20:00 ET. ESZs sank to 57753.50 at 2:13 ET. ESZs then plodded to a daily high of 5798.75 at 10:06 ET. Traders and dumpers then commenced liquidation. ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 5768.25 at 13:47 ET.
The conditioned afternoon rally took ESZs to 5783.00 at 14:00 ET. But there are organic sellers in the market. ESZs slid to 5769.00 at the 14:15 ET VIX Fix. The post-VIX Fix contra move took ESZs to 5782.00 at 14:37 ET. ESZs then went inert until they commenced a decline near 15:15 ET that took ESZs to 5772.50 at 15:40 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESZs to 5781:25 at 15:59 ET.
Positive aspects of previous session The dollar rebounded smartly; gasoline and oil declined sharply.
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks and bonds declined moderately despite China’s latest stimulus scheme. The December gold contract hit a new high of 2694.90. TLT (US 20+year Treasury ETF) was negative for the 7th straight session.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will Mr. Bond be right about inflation? If Mr. Bond is right, what will happen to the Fed?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5725.12 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5741.03; 5712.06
@realDonaldTrump: Big threats on my life by Iran. The entire U.S. Military is watching and waiting.Moves were already made by Iran that didn’t work out, but they will try again. Not a good situation for anyone. I am surrounded by more men, guns, and weapons than I have ever seen before. Thank you to Congress for unanimously approving far more money to Secret Service – Zero “NO” Votes, strictly bipartisan. Nice to see Republicans and Democrats get together on something. An attack on a former President is a Death Wish for the attacker!
Doesn’t Iran trying to kill Trump warrant a US response? Even with the US Deep State populated with Iran-doting Obamaites, at the least there should have been a clear and bold warning to Iran.
@bennyjohnson: TRUMP: “If I were president, and a former president… was under threat, I would inform the threatening country—if they do anything to harm this person, we are going to blow your largest cities and the country to smithereens.”https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1838993624857461211
Trump suggests Iran was involved in both assassination attempts, calls on FBI to hack suspects’ phoneshttps://trib.al/VWKK7xD
@townhallcom: Donald Trump questions why the government is able to get into the phones of “the J6 hostages” but not the “six phones of the second lunatic” who tried to assassinate him. https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1838990677423902882
GOP Rep. @RepThomasMassie: Today I asked DOJ Inspector General why his J6 report has taken almost 4 years and won’t come out before the election.The number of FBI informants participating in the January 6th 2021 protest will shock folks.I’ll post the rest of my questions from this hearing later…
Six most shocking revelations in Senate report on Secret Service’s handling of first Trump shooting USSS sniper team leader warned counter snipers by email, not radio communications, about Crooks lurking with a rangefinder and did not urge agents to keep Trump off the rally stage… An inexperienced Secret Service drone detection operator was on the phone with customer service, trying to figure out how to properly operate the C-UAS drone detection system as suspect Thomas Crooks’ assassination plot was unfolding… 4. A Secret Service official was informed before the outdoor rally that “credible intelligence” of a threat existed prior to the rally, but “still wrote in a security planning document that there was ‘no adverse intelligence’ concerning the visit to Butler, PA.”… https://justthenews.com/government/congress/six-most-shocking-revelations-senate-report-secret-services-handling-first
Secret Service Agent Accused of Sexually Assaulting (Harris) Campaign Aide The incident…took place sometime over the last week during a trip devoted to providing advance security work and planning for a Harris campaign event in Wisconsin that ultimately did not take place… The group went back to the Harris staffer’s hotel room when the Secret Service agent in question allegedly forced himself on the woman staffer, groping her in the process… the accused agent was so inebriated… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/09/25/secret_service_agent_accused_of_sexually_assaulting_campaign_aide.html
Today – We will reiterate what we said in yesterday’s missive: Stocks look tired, and Mr. Bond is not happy. Invest and trade accordingly! Recession indicators are blinking and Mr. Bond smells inflation. This is worse than stagflation.
There are organic sellers in the market that have been liquidating into rallies. The onus is now on bulls to absorb the selling and halt the downward momentum. Bulls will try to halt the downward momentum.
Expected economic data and events: Q2 GDP 3.0%, Consumption 2.9%, GDP Price Index 2.5%, Core PCE Price Index 2.8% q/q, BEA Annual Revisions to GDP; Initial Jobless Claims 224k, Continuing Claims 1.826m; Aug Durable Goods Orders -2.7% m/m, Ex-Trans +0.1%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.1%, Shipments 0.1%; Aug Pending Homes Sales 1.0% m/m; Powell speaks at 9:20 ET, seven other Fed officials speak from 9:10 ET to 18:00 ET.
NQUs are +108.50; ESUs are +13.75 (Traders expect a rally); and USUs are +2/32 at 20:10 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5523; 100-day MA: 5455; 150-day MA: 5347; 200-day MA: 5217 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,705; 100-day MA: 39,956; 150-day MA: 39,552; 200-day MA: 39,122 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5722.26 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5342.47 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5573.23 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5704.98 triggers a sell signal
The Big Guy went on “The View” and damned Kamala Harris with dubious praise.
@ianmSC: Biden says he delegated everything from foreign policy to domestic policy to Kamala Harris which once again highlights the nonsensical absurdity of the Harris campaign using a “new way forward” as their slogan.https://x.com/ianmSC/status/1838966147674149030
@libsoftiktok: Whoopi Goldberg compares Trump to a bug. Biden then imitates smashing a bug d*ad on the table. Hosts and audience laugh. Is this incitement to violence? Just imagine if Trump did this. https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1838972756194668708
Biden stumbles on ‘The View’ when asked about Pelosi forcing his ouster: ‘That wasn’t the reason’ “I stepped down because I started thinking about it. You know, it’s hard to think of — I know you’re only 30 — but it’s hard to think of, it’s hard for me to even say how old I am. … It’s like, ‘Holy God, that can’t be right.’” Contrary to Biden’s recollection, he was forced to relinquish the Democratic nomination on July 21 after a brutal pressure campaign by leading Democrats after his confused performance at the June 27 CNN debate against Trump…https://trib.al/dDyCdco
@paulsperry_” Back to telling tall tales, Joe Biden today on “The View” claimed a girl would not go with him to a “9th Grade” dance because of his Catholic faith. He said this happened right after he moved to Delaware from predominantly Catholic Scranton, Penn. He was 11.
GOP Sen. @HawleyMO: A whistleblower tells me the Secret Service DENIED the Trump campaign the resources & manpower for a rally in Wisconsin. That contradicts Rowe, who said Trump, Harris & Biden were all getting the same protection. Harris held a WI rally last weekhttps://t.co/wRAKuFRWQV
@PhilipWegmann: In Pittsburgh, Harris says Fed rate cut “will make it just a little easier for families to buy a home or a car or just pay down the credit card bill.” Harris tells the Pittsburgh Economic Club, “I will engage in what Franklin Roosevelt called bold, persistent experimentation.” (Which was socialism and a bit of communism!)
ABC: “For those of us who have been waiting for more specifics of what does that childcare policy look like? What is it that she’s calling for?We’re not getting that at this point in the campaign.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1839045877475762517
Fox’s @BillMelugin_: I asked VP Kamala Harris’ campaign if she will keep the Biden administration’s controversial CBP One cell phone app & CHNV migrant flights mass parole program if she wins the election. The campaign provided me a statement that did not answer those questions… (“As a prosecutor for twenty years, Vice President Harris has spent her career putting criminals behind bars and upholding the laws in this country…”) https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1838622633505759260
Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: The other story here is the Harris campaign continues to recycle responses that don’t apply to the question – they’ve done this on a host of inquires over various issues.
Kamala prerecorded on MSNBC: “One must have a plan. A real plan that’s not just about some talking point ending in an exclamation at a political rally, but actually putting the thought into what will be the return on the investment.” https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1839059903232536743
MSNBC’s Steph Ruhle after her interview with Kamala: “She doesn’t answer the question… where she’s going to get the money… She says ‘we just have to do it’… does this mean we’re just going to borrow?..” https://x.com/KatiePavlich/status/1839069490811908501
MSNBC’s Stephanie Ruhle: “There are lots of Americans who don’t see themselves in your plans… What do you say to them?“: Harris: “If you are… hard working… if you… have… uh… the dreams and the ambitions and the aspirations of what I believe you do, you’re in my plan… I really love and so energized by the spirit of the American people… and I come from the middle class.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1839080215206563932
Harris to Ruhle: “Looking holistically at the connection between that and housing and looking holistically at the incentives we in the federal government can create for local and state governments to actually engage in planning in a holistic manner that includes prioritizing affordable housing.” https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1839088705274839430
@ByronYork: After brief Harris interview, MSNBC’s Ruhle said of Harris’s messy answer on tariffs: ‘One could watch and say she didn’t give a clear and direct answer. And that’s OK, because we’re not talking about clear and direct issues.’
@paulsperry_: With zero self-awareness, Kamala intoned on MSNBC: “That’s part of the problem with Donald Trump. Frankly, he’s just not very serious about how he thinks about some of these [economic] issues.And one must be serious. And have a real plan that’s not just some talking point.”
Harris admits costs in US are ‘just too high’ as Trump taunts her inaction: ‘Why hasn’t she done it already?’https://trib.al/qM0F5qG
@Peoples_Pundit: Kamala Harris is awful in interviews. She cannot even look and sound like the media-created myth for LESS THAN AN HOUR in a friendly sit downwith state-run media, MSNBC & CNN. Now you know why they hide her. The speech was terrible. The interview is awful. Total disaster.
@JeffClarkUS: I had promised my followers to run a search to see if Kamala Harris had ever argued any appeals — ever. Even just one. I got busy but have now completed that task. The short answer is “no, never.” I could not find any evidence she had ever argued an appeal… https://t.co/ky2a3Pfunl
@mattdizwhitlock: Kamala and the Democrats cooked up a scheme in the Inflation Reduction Act to take money from Medicare to fund EVs. Part of that scheme was forcing drug companies to accept price fixing and counting it as “savings.” Now the 5th Circuit is stepping in to review.
Kamala’s Price-Fixing Dreams Suffer a Major Blow Kamala Harris’s one “accomplishment”—the deciding vote on the so-called Inflation Reduction Act—triggers a pharmaceutical price-fixing process that will rip life-saving drugs off the market and prevent the innovation of new ones. This has triggered litigation across the country from groups like the National Infusion Center Association, whose members provide infusion treatments for cancer and chronic diseases. These groups argue Kamala’s regime forces them to sell to Medicare providers at prices far below profitability, requiring them to leave Medicare entirely if they are to retain their business… he Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals in NICA v. Becerra said stop: Kamala’s price-fixing regime needs to be reviewed on the merits… https://www.iwf.org/2024/09/24/kamalas-price-fixing-dreams-suffer-a-major-blow/
Trump Blasts Zelenskiy as Ukraine’s Aid Big Hits Campaign Strife – BBG Ukraine leader won’t get hoped-for Trump meeting this week Trump accuses Zelensky of casting ‘nasty little aspirations’ (toward DJT) “We continue to give billions to a man who refuses to makes a deal: Zelenskiy.”…
The US and France are pushing for a truce between Israel and Hezbollah. What about the Hamas truce?
@TheFirstonTV: “The FBI, in a calendar year, reported that New Orleans and Los Angeles had ZERO Murders.” @JesseKellyDC calls out the FBI for cooking the books on crime statistics. https://t.co/GsfyGl2HWg
The US Ministry of Truth is alive and very active these days! “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and (US government) statistics.” – Mark Twain
“When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it.” — Frédéric Bastiat
harveyorganblog.com 
