GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $28.85 TO $2668.35
SILVER PRICE UP $0.30 TO $31.47
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2660.35
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.37
Bitcoin morning price:$63,890 UP 528 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $61,942 DOWN 1420 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $12.55TO $985.75
Palladium price; UP$11.05 TO $997.30
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3587.90 UP 28.02 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,599.30CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//SEPT 26 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2002.65 UP 32.58 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2002.65 RITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 1/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,402.68 UP 36.06Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.402,68 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 1 //.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
JPMorgan stopped 638/1334
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 1334 NOTICES FOR 133,400 OZ or 4.149 TONNES
total notices so far: 9610 contracts for 961,000 Oz (29.891 tonnes)
FOR OCT
SILVER NOTICES: 34 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR .170 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1094 for 5.495 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $28.85 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.30 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368OZ INTO THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 469,198 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 2111 CONTRACTS TO 144,667 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS OF $0.33 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON MONDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST CONSIDERABLE NET LONGS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 1790 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS AS WELL AS MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. //. WE HAD STRONG SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE.. WE HAD A FAIR 321 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 678 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING.IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE 1790 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: 678 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.33 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAVE A GIGANTIC LOSS OF 1790 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR 321 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 180,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 5.535 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 5.535 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ GIGANTIC SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//FAIR SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 678 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 104 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS SEPT, ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAYS, total 321contracts: OR 1.605 MILLION OZ (321 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 1.605MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 1.605 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A GIGANTIC SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2111 CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A FAIR EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:321 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 5.355 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 180,000 OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 5.535 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE LOSS OF 1790 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 678 CONTRACTS (USED FOR TODAY’S RAID),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE EARLY MONDAY COMEX + MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THIS CONTINUED ONTO MONDAY’S FINAL TRADING////// MASSIVE SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE FRIDAY/ AND HUGE LIQUIDATION OF LONGS. ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (678 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//
WE HAD 34 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 170,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST LOST BY A HUGE SIZED 15,634 OI CONTRACTS TO 528,392 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 96 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (15,634 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $6.50 IN PRICE /MONDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 18,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 6,486 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK WHEREBY STUPIDLY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF ACTUAL DELIVERY(NONSENSE)
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 34.220TONNES+ 20.174 TONNES = 54.399 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $6.50 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX TRADING//RAID//. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 8345 OI CONTRACTS (25.95 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE MONDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED LATE MONDAY WITH MONDAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE!
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 2344 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 528,392
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8345 CONTRACTS WITH 15,634CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 7289 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8345 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED 2344 CONTRACTS, WE HAD A HUGE MASS LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS PLUS MONTH END SPREADERS/MONDAY
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7289 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 15,634 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8345 CONTRACTS. TO WHICH WE ADD 6,486 EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAYS 18,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP AND 6486 EXCANGE FOR RISK FOR 20.174 TONNES
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO: /SEPT 34.22 TONNES. + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK = 54.399 TONNES
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (DURING COMEX PLUS SPREADER LIQUIDATION) WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2344 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
SEPT.
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 7289CONTRACTS OF 728900 OZ OR 22.67TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7289EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 22.67 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 22.67 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.619% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 22..67 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FALL BY A HUGE SIZED 2111 CONTRACTS OI TO 144,667 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 321 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 321 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 321 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2111 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 331 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1790 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.950 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.33 LOSS IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 732.42 PTS OR 1.93%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.65%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,01285CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0271 Oil DOWN TO 67.70dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 71.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 15,634 CONTRACTS TO 528,392 WITH OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.50 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (7289). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER A YEAR FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY, WHT ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY LAST WEEK AND YESTERDAY.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH MONDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MINOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING AT LOWER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST ESPECIALLY YESTERDAY. TAS SHORTERS WERE JOINED IN TANDEM BY MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY COMEX TRADING.MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION ENDED YESTERSAY AS THE MONTH OF SEPT, CLOSED OUT.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 7289 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 72589& ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7289 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8345 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7289 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG LOSS OF 15,634 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $6.50 MONDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THE ENTIRE LOSS IN OI COMEX WAS DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION/MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. HOWEVER LONGS GOBBLED UP HUGE AMOUNTS OF OI : 7289 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND OUR FAMOUS CME NEWBIE, EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 6486 CONTRACTS: TOTAL 13,775CONTRACTS
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SIZED 2344 CONTRACTS WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING. OPTIONS EXPIRY CONCLUDES ON MONDAY FROM WHICH RAIDS WILL END FOR THE MONTH.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (54.399TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 34.220 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =54.399 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $6.50/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS ALHOUGH WE DID HAVE A STRONG LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.,WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION AND THAT NUMBER INTENSIFIED ON MONAY. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY MONDAY EVENING . AND TO BOOT THE CME WAS FORCED TO PAYOUT HUGE MOOLAH TO LONGS TO ENTICE THEM TO TAKE DELIVERY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK OF DELIVERY,
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 25.642 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE
//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 33.655TONNES.+ 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
NEW STANDING FOR OCT 34.220 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 54.399 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $6.50
WE HAVE REMOVED 96 CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8345CONTRACTS OR 834,500 OZ (25.95
TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 182,529contracts POOR
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
OCT 1 SEPTEMBER GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 391,.80 OZ Delaware . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 202.370 oz DELAWARE |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1334 notice(s) 133,400 OZ 4.149 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1392contracts 139,200 OZ 4.324 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 9610 notices 827600 oz 29.891 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
1 dealer deposits:0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
i
total deposits 0 oz
withdrawals: 1
i) out of Delaware 391,780 oz
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 391.780oz
adjustments: HSBC customer to dealer 92,753,612 oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 2726 contracts having LOST 8092 contracts.
We had 8276 contracts filed yesterday so we gained 184 contracts on our two exchanges, plus the huge 20.174 tonnes of exchange for risk
NOVEMBER GAINED 40 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1359
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 7268 CONTRACTS TO 452,151
We had 1334 contracts filed for today representing 133,400 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notice issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1334 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 638 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (9610x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(2726 C ONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1334 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,100,200 OZ OR 34.220 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, NEW TOTAL = 54.399 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (9610 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT (2726 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (34 x 100 oz which equals 1,100,200 oz (34.22TONNES + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY = 54.399 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 54.399 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,705,250,003 oz 53.04tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,242,972,397OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,828,419.505/// 243,49tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,413,561.892 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,123,152 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190,045 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 1 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE OCT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1,157,971.333 OZ CNT Manfra Delaware Loomis . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 2,081,982.800 oz ASAHI HSBC Manfra |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 34 CONTRACT(S) (0.170 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 8 contracts (40,000oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1099 Contracts (5.485 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 customer deposits:
i) INTO ASAHI: 587,473,400 oz
ii) INTO HSBC 1,390,871,900 oz
iii) Into MANFRA 103,637,500
total customer deposits 2,081,982,800 oz
We had 4 withdrawals
i) Out of CNT: 65,003.628 oz
ii) Out of Manfra: 605,768,115 oz
iii) Out of Loomis 484,284,600 oz
iv) out of Delaware 2914,940 oz
total withdrawal 1,157,971,333OZ
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/305.053million or 44.26%
adjustment
1: CNT customer to dealer: 317,442.325 oz
ii) Brinks 521,142.71 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 71.145MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305.053million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 42 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 1029 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 1065 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 36 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A HUGE 180,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 2 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE,
NOVEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 17 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 391
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 1331 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 125,561 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 34 for 0.170 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 60,481 GOOD
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1099x 5,000 oz = 5.495 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (42and the number of notices served upon today 34 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month: 1099 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(42) number of notices served upon today minus (34)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT contract month equates to 5.535 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 5.535 million oz.
There are 71.053 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 871.94 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 469,198MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
Peter Schiff Exclusive: Gold To $26,000?
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 06:30 AM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
In an exclusive hourlong conversation, Peter Schiff and I talk the current state of the U.S. economy, the stock market, the dollar and precious metals. We discuss:
- The recent surge in gold prices and whether it will hit $3,000 by the end of the year or potentially $6,000 next year.
- Both Schiff and I express concerns about the U.S. economy being “broke,” the potential shift toward socialism, and rampant inflation driven by Modern Monetary Theory.
- Peter Schiff compares today’s gold bull market to the 1970s, emphasizing that this is the beginning of a new bull market, unlike 1979 when the market peaked.
- Schiff argues that while interest rates in 1979 ended the gold bull market, the current trend of rate cuts will continue to fuel gold’s rise, highlighting the Fed’s inability to combat inflation effectively.
- The conversation touches on the inflation-adjusted gold price, suggesting that gold remains undervalued when adjusted for true inflation, which CPI doesn’t accurately reflect.
- The strange phenomenon of retail investors selling gold during one of its best-performing years is highlighted, attributing this to a lack of confidence and distraction by Bitcoin.
- The role of Bitcoin as a distraction from gold investments is discussed, with Schiff noting that Bitcoin has underperformed relative to gold and criticizing Bitcoin as “fool’s gold.”
- Schiff predicts a significant fall in the value of the U.S. dollar, exacerbated by trade deficits and foreign central banks’ increasing preference for gold over U.S. dollars.
- Schiff forecasts a looming crisis in the bond market, where rising long-term yields will signal a loss of confidence in U.S. credit quality, further driving gold’s rise.
- The mainstream financial media’s neglect of gold’s rise is criticized, with both agreeing that gold’s significance as a monetary metal is being ignored, especially compared to the attention given to stocks and Bitcoin.
We began by acknowledging gold’s impressive rally, and I probed Peter for his insights on where the metal could be heading. He was quick to point out that gold is on track to potentially hit $3,000 by year’s end, and perhaps as high as $6,000 by the end of next year. Schiff’s confidence wasn’t just based on speculation but rooted in historical precedent. As he reminded me, gold’s current trajectory may seem meteoric, but it pales in comparison to its massive gains in the 1970s, when it went from $35 an ounce to over $800.
This year, as Peter noted, gold has seen its most significant percentage increase in 45 years. “We are probably going to have the biggest rise in the price of gold in percentage terms since 1979,” he stated. He cautioned, however, that unlike the bull market of the 1970s, which was eventually capped by Paul Volcker’s aggressive rate hikes in the 1980s, the current cycle shows no such brakes on the horizon. “Instead of the Fed hiking rates next year, they’re going to be cutting them,” he predicted, which will only fuel further inflation and send gold soaring higher.
“If gold can go from $20 an ounce to $2,600 an ounce, it can go from $2,600 to $26,000.”
One key reason Peter sees this continuing gold rally as inevitable is the lack of genuine monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Despite Chair Jerome Powell’s claims that we’re in a period of “restrictive” monetary policy, Schiff argued that it’s been anything but. “It’s been less loose, but less loose ain’t tight,” he quipped, with his usual disdain for central bank speak. According to him, real tight monetary policy would have forced the government to cut spending, led to higher savings rates, and reduced household debt—all things that clearly haven’t happened.
Peter also pointed to how the mainstream financial media has all but ignored gold’s rise. He highlighted that while the GDX (a major gold miners’ index) has outpaced both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 this year, you wouldn’t know it from watching CNBC or reading the Wall Street Journal. “They’re ignoring gold because they don’t want their viewers to hear that message,” Peter remarked, calling attention to how media outlets are more interested in promoting crypto than discussing the significance of gold’s surge. “They want to spread ‘everything is awesome,’ buy stocks, buy crypto,” Peter added, suggesting that the overwhelming push toward Bitcoin and other digital assets has diverted attention from gold’s quiet bull market.
“[Silver’s] going to blow through $50 like a hot knife through butter.”
Interestingly, while gold has risen dramatically, silver has lagged behind, and I asked Peter why he thought that was the case. He explained that part of the reason is psychological—investors don’t fully believe in the gold rally yet, and as such, they’ve been hesitant to jump into silver. “The central banks aren’t buying silver. They’re buying gold,” Schiff explained. But once the broader market comes to terms with gold’s upward trajectory, Schiff predicts that silver will break through $50 an ounce with ease. “It’s going to blow through $50 like a hot knife through butter,” he stated, suggesting that the precious metal remains severely undervalued.
From there, the conversation shifted to a broader macroeconomic discussion. Peter painted a grim picture of the U.S. dollar’s future, warning that it’s on the cusp of a dramatic collapse. He pointed to the U.S.’s ballooning trade deficits and its role as the world’s largest debtor nation, something Schiff believes is unsustainable. Central banks worldwide, Peter argues, are already positioning themselves for this inevitability by hoarding gold. “We’ve been able to run up all this debt and export it, and the world’s been willing to suck it up and subsidize it,” he said, but he doesn’t see that dynamic lasting much longer. As foreign buyers turn away from U.S. debt, the dollar will come under immense pressure, leading to further inflation and gold’s continued rise.
“We could get to a point where the Dow is worth one ounce of gold.”
One of the more thought-provoking moments of the discussion was when Peter laid out the potential for an even deeper economic crisis, one that could mirror or even surpass the Great Depression or the stagflation of the 1970s. He envisions a scenario where the Dow Jones and gold meet at the same price, similar to what happened during previous economic crises. “We could get to a point where the Dow is worth one ounce of gold,” Peter stated, suggesting that a significant economic event could trigger a massive revaluation of assets across the board. In Peter’s view, this scenario isn’t far-fetched, especially if the Fed continues to try and print its way out of crises.
Toward the end of our conversation, Peter circled back to the mainstream financial system and how various institutions, from government agencies to the Federal Reserve, have manipulated economic data to paint a rosier picture of the economy than what’s actually occurring. “All these government measures are inaccurate,” Peter declared, pointing to inflation, GDP, and unemployment figures as prime examples of how statistics have been engineered to provide political cover. In contrast, gold, as Peter sees it, is the one objective measure of economic reality. “The only objective grade is gold. And gold is giving the Fed an F,” he concluded.
As always, my discussion with Peter Schiff was eye-opening and provided a sobering take on the current state of the global economy. While he may come across as hyperbolic to some, Peter’s arguments are hard to dismiss, especially as his long-term predictions about gold and inflation continue to play out. Whether you agree with his libertarian views or not, Peter offers a compelling case for why investors should be paying far more attention to gold and much less to the feel-good narratives peddled by the mainstream financial media.
🔊 Full audio only interview link
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This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. I may or may not own names I write about and are watching. Sometimes I’m bullish without owning things, sometimes I’m bearish and do own things. Just assume my positions could be exactly the opposite of what you think they are just in case. All positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice and at any point I can be long, short or neutral on any position. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. I edit after my posts are published because I’m impatient and lazy, so if you see a typo, check back in a half hour. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.
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2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
Alasdair Macleod..
ted.
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/KINESIS 1
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:diamonds
RIP “Real” Diamonds
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 06:55 AM
The downturn in the diamond market is nothing short of breathtaking. It is driven mostly by a surge in low-cost lab-grown diamond supply, which is capturing a larger market share of the gem industry as cash-strapped consumers gravitate to artificial stones.
Amy Wu, who worked for FTX Ventures until the crypto exchange blew up, recently joined Menlo Ventures, one of Silicon Valley’s oldest venture firms, as a partner focused on the consumer sector.
In a viral post on X, the Menlo partner and analyst highlighted how 2023 marked a pivotal year in the battle between natural diamonds and lab-grown stones for market share.
According to trend analytics firm Tenoris, which surveyed 1,500 US jewelry stores, lab-grown diamonds emerged victorious so far in 2024, accounting for 56.8% of diamonds sold, while natural diamonds trailed with 43.2%.
Wu titled the X post “RIP “real” diamonds.”
She continued:
Ah, yes.
Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out to clients in a recent note that “the trend of increasing lab-grown diamond market share remains unchallenged, adding to the structural challenges being encountered by the natural diamond market.”
According to Bloomberg data, citing the Diamond Standard Index, natural stone prices have plunged to the lowest on record, with data going back to early 2002. The index has lost 45% of its value since March 2022.
“We expect the market rebalancing to provide a floor for falling prices, but a convincing price inflection is increasingly unlikely before 2025,” Morgan Stanley analysts said.
Here’s what X users are saying…
So much for a store of value…
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 732.42 PTS OR 1.93%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.65%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,01285CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0271 Oil DOWN TO 67.70dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 71.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN :70185
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.0271
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed UP 732.42 POINTS OR 1.93%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 100.84 EURO FALLS TO 1.1082 DOWN 54 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.847 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 143,72…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWNfor WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.0495 talian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.355 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.838
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.043
3j Gold at $2650.20 /Silver at: 31.35 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 63/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.60
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 143,72 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.847% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8468 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9384 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.745 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.069 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.625 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.20…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 3.9885 DOWN 5 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.960 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.761 UP 2PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
S&P Futures Flat To Start Q4 After Hitting 43rd Record High On Monday; China Closed
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 08:21 AM
US equity futures are down a touch as we enter Q4 after trading overnight in a narrow range, with NDX leading and RTY lagging, a familiar pattern from the first half of the year. So far in 2024, S&P is +20.8%, NDX +19.2%, and RTY +10.0% (a full YTS performance return in a latter post). As of 8:00am ET,. S&P futures are down 0.1% after the index notched a fresh record Monday, the 43rd of the year, following a third-quarter rally that capped the longest such winning stretch since 2021; Nasdaq futs are unchanged with Mag7 names mixed as Semis hold a slight bid. FTSE +35bps, CAC -20bps, DAX +30bps, Nikkei +1.93%, the record China market juggernaut (Hang Seng/Shanghai) is closed for the next week due to holidays. Bond yields are lower as the yield curve bull steepens, and USD is higher. Commodities are mixed with Ags/Energy under pressure and Precious Metals are leading Base metals. Overnight news focused on Israel “targeted ground raids” into Lebanon (Israeli security official said a wider operation into Beirut is not on the table) and the US Dockworkers strike starting on the East Coast with economic costs estimated to be up to $5bn/day; hurricane recovery continues in the Southeast. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Mfg, JOLTS, Construction Spending, and Vehicle Sales. There are five Fed speakers today.
In premarket trading Boeing slips about 1% as the company is considering raising at least $10 billion by selling new stock, according to Bloomberg. Apple is down 1.5% after Barclays warns of weak demand for iPhone 16, countering JPM optimism yesterday. Marine shipping firm ZIM Integrated Shipping fell as much as 4.9% after dockworkers walked out of every major port on the US East and Gulf coasts, marking the beginning of a strike. FedEx Corp. and United Parcel Service Inc. edged higher after Stifel said they are the “most obvious beneficiaries” of disruptions caused by the strike. Here are the other notable premarket movers:
- Atlassian (TEAM) rises 2% as Raymond James turns bullish, citing growth potential for the cloud business despite a period of undershooting expectations.
- CVS Health (CVS) gains 2% as the company is conducting a strategic review of options including a possible breakup, according to a person familiar with the matter.
- IGM Biosciences (IGMS) sinks 23% after its chief executive, scientific and medical officers stepped down amid a pivot to focus exclusively on autoimmunity.
- Pennant Group (PNTG) declines 2% after the health-care company launched a 3.5 million share offering to repay debt.
A global bond rally got fresh fuel Tuesday from data that euro-area inflation has been mostly vanquished, emboldening bets on interest-rate cuts. Treasuries advanced, while yields on 10-year German bonds fell as much as seven basis points to the lowest level since January. Optimism that the Fed can engineer the elusive “soft landing,” restricting policy but not so much that it chokes off growth, helped drive rallies in both bond and stock markets in the third quarter as markets are pricing in a recessionary 200bps in cuts which however is viewed as good for stocks. Indeed, money markets imply a one-in-three chance the Fed will deliver another half-point cut in November, and price a total of about 190 basis points of easing by the end of next year. That scenario may not pan out as expected, Larry Fink warned.
“The amount of easing that’s in the forward curve is crazy,” Fink, the chief executive officer of BlackRock Inc. said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “There’s room for easing more, but not as much as the forward curve would indicate.”
European markets rise, with the Euro Stoxx 600 up 0.4% near session highs. FTSE 100 outperforms peers, adding 0.3%, IBEX lags, dropping 0.3%. Tech, real estate and travel are the strongest performing sectors. Euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since 2021, prompting money markets to add to bets on another quarter-point decrease by the ECB this month. Earlier, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank is becoming more optimistic about getting price pressures under control.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks edged higher in thin trading on Tuesday, with a number of major markets including China, Hong Kong and South Korea closed for a holiday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up about 0.2%. Japanese stocks recouped some of their losses from the previous day, when benchmarks were down more than 3%, thanks to a weaker yen. Australian stocks slipped. The outlook for Japanese equities has become uncertain as investors digest policy signals from new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s cabinet, as well as a potential fund rotation given China’s outperformance. Also boding well for the region’s outlook is a strong rally in Chinese stocks on the back of government measures. Any spillover to the rest of the region this week may be limited as the mainland Chinese market is closed for the Golden Week holiday.
“For China, the recent re-rating has been driven by the rising belief in a PBOC/government put option supporting shares off a low base,” Macquarie strategists including Eugene Hsiao wrote in a note. “Structural concerns on China remain unchanged, but in a one-party system, a little love to the markets can go a long way”
Mfg PMIs in Europe were mostly still in contractionary (Italy worse, Germany/EZ/Spain/France better/UK in-line). EZ CPI printed in-line (1.8%) and below the ECB target since the first time since June ’21. Japan Aug unemployment was slightly lower vs consensus (2.5 vs 2.6%).
ISM preview: ISM manufacturing index expected to tick up to 47.6 in September from 47.2 in August but remain in contraction. New orders component likely to get some additional scrutiny after falling to weakest level since May 2023 in the last print.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2% while the euro falls as euro-area inflation slowed below the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since 2021. AUD and JPY are the best performers in G-10 FX; NOK and NZD underperform.
In rates, treasuries were underpinned by gains for core European rates after euro-area inflation slowed below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the first time since 2021. Yield curve is notably flatter led by similar price action in bunds. US yields are richer by 2bp to 5bp across the curve near session lows with 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 1bp-2bp on the day; 10-year around 3.74% is down about 4bp vs Monday’s close with bunds and gilts in the sector outperforming by 3.5bp and 2bp. German bonds rally across the curve, led by the long end, while also outperforming comparable 10-year gilts and Treasuries. Bull-flattening rally in bunds has German 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 4bp and 3bp on the day with 10-year German yields remaining down around 8bp at ~2.05%. US session highlights include ISM manfacturing data and JOLTS job openings, along with several Fed speakers.
In commodities, concerns of oil oversupply as Libya is set to restore production weighs on prices. While they’ve trimmed some losses, WTI and Brent are down on the day. Spot gold climbs roughly $14 to trade near $2,649/oz on haven demand amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes September final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am), August construction spending and JOLTS job openings and September ISM manufacturing (10am) and September Dallas Fed services activity (10:30am). Fed speakers scheduled include Bostic (11am, 11:10am, 6:15pm), Cook (11:10am), Barkin and Collins (6:15pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,810.75
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 523.97
- MXAP up 0.2% to 195.43
- MXAPJ down 0.3% to 619.11
- Nikkei up 1.9% to 38,651.97
- Topix up 1.7% to 2,690.78
- Hang Seng Index up 2.4% to 21,133.68
- Shanghai Composite up 8.1% to 3,336.50
- Sensex little changed at 84,291.28
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 8,208.93
- Kospi down 2.1% to 2,593.27
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.06%
- Euro down 0.2% to $1.1115
- Brent Futures down 1.8% to $70.40/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,644.96
- US Dollar Index up 0.15% to 100.93
Top Overnight News
- Dockworkers have walked out of every major port on the US East and Gulf coasts, marking the beginning of a strike that could ripple through the world’s largest economy and cause political turmoil just weeks before the presidential election.
- Macau’s gaming revenue rose 15.5% year-on-year in September, exceeding analysts’ forecast as casinos gear up for one of China’s biggest holidays, which usually fuels travel to the gambling hub. Gross gaming revenue reached $2.2 billion. The result is compared to the median analyst estimate of a 14.2% increase, and has returned to 78% of the pre-pandemic level seen in 2019. BBG
- BOJ board members meeting in September highlighted the need to enhance communications with financial markets, while some members stressed the importance of staying wary of downside risks. “When conducting further policy interest rate hikes, the bank will need to communicate its policy stance and other factors to markets more carefully,” one of nine policy board members said at the September 19-20 meeting. BBG
- Euro-area CPI rose 1.8% in September year on year as expected, dipping below the 2% target for the first time since 2021 and bolstering the case for an ECB rate cut this month. The euro slipped. BBG
- Israel launched a ground operation in Lebanon, escalating its battle against Hezbollah. Troops began what Israel said were “targeted” raids on villages close to the border and emphasized operations would be “limited.” The US said it “agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure.” BBG
- VP nominees JD Vance and Tim Walz face off at 9 p.m. ET for their first and potentially only debate before the election. The presidential candidates themselves also offer strikingly different visions of the economy. BBG
- Consumers plan to boost their holiday spending by ~7% according to a new study from PwC, but retail industry price competition will be intense. BBG
- CVS Health is conducting a strategic review of options for the company, including a possible breakup of the industry giant, according to people with knowledge of the matter. WSJ
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said the market is pricing “crazy” levels of Fed rate cuts given the US economy continues to grow. BBG
- Michel Barnier will face France’s parliament for the first time as prime minister on Tuesday to deliver a make-or-break speech outlining how he plans to regain control of public finances while navigating bitter divisions between lawmakers.
- Hurricane Helene has killed more than 100 people in six states across the US South — and most of the victims lived hundreds of miles away from where the storm made landfall.
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the new quarter mixed amid a slew of data releases and several key market closures with markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea closed, while participants also reflected on Fed chair Powell’s recent comments and Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon. ASX 200 was pressured as underperformance in the mining, materials and financial sectors overshadowed the resilience in tech and defensives, while data releases were mixed as Retail Sales topped forecasts but Building Approvals showed a sharper-than-feared contraction. Nikkei 225 rallied after the recent heavy selling with the recovery facilitated by a weaker currency amid mixed Tankan data and varied BoJ opinions.
Top Asian News
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September meeting stated that a member said there is no change to the stance of adjusting the degree of monetary support if the economy and prices move in line with forecast although they must be vigilant to factors behind still unstable markets, while there was an opinion from a member that there is no need to raise rates when markets are unstable because they are not behind the curve on inflation and a member also said that given economic and market uncertainties, it is undesirable to make further changes to policy rate in a way that give markets impression they are moving to full-fledged policy tightening. Furthermore, a member said there is no change to the view that the BoJ must raise rates without waiting too long, but the rate hike must not be purpose in itself, while a member also thought that the rate path should move policy rate to 1.0% in the latter half of fiscal 2025 at earliest.
- Japan’s newly appointed Finance Minister Kato says he has been instructed to promote a growth-orientated economy driven by wage increases and investment, via Jiji.
- Japan’s newly appointed Economy Minister Akazawa says he wants the BoJ to decide on future rate hikes carefully; Taking Japan completely out of deflation is the top priority.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) began the session around flat, but quickly dipped lower as sentiment took a hit early in the morning; a move which has since stabilised. As it stands, indices in Europe are mixed and trade very modestly on either side of the unchanged mark. EZ Manufacturing PMI/HICP figures passed through with little impact on price action. European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Tech takes the top spot alongside strength in Travel & Leisure. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, given the continued weakness in oil prices. US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ U/C RTY -0.3%) are mixed, with slight underperformance in the economy-linked RTY as traders continue to digest remarks from Fed Chair Powell who pushed back against another oversized cut in 2024.
Top European News
- Deutsche Bank now expects an ECB cut in October and believes a 50bps move in December could be a close call if recent weaker growth and inflation trends continue.
- ECB’s de Guindos says expectations surveys are an important part of the toolkit available to central banks for their policy analysis.
- ECB’s Rehn sees EZ inflation stabilising at 2% during 2025; direction of monetary policy is clear – rate cuts have begun; stance is becoming less restrictive; pace and scale of cuts decided meeting-by-meeting. Draghi report is a necessary wake-up call about Europe’s low growth and will provide good bases for next commission work programme. EZ growth could be weaker than forecast. In his view, there are now more reasons to justify a rate cut in October; recent weakening of EZ growth outlook also tips the scale in direction of an October cut
- ECB’s Nagel says that future purchases of government bonds by the European Central Bank should be reserved for special cases, according to Bloomberg.
- French PM Barnier is planning to announce additional tax increases of EUR 15-18bln in an attempt to gain back control of the nation’s finances, according to Le Parisien. To speak at 14:00BST/09:00ET
- Riksbank minutes (September meeting): Thedeen said; “The fact that we explicitly state in the draft report that we may make cuts in larger steps is a clear indication that, given the favourable inflation outlook, this is now part of our gradual monetary policy strategy”. “Krona remains undervalued and our inflation forecast is based on the assumption of a gradual appreciation of the exchange rate”.
FX
- DXY is building on the gains seen yesterday that were driven by comments from Fed Chair Powell. DXY has briefly made its way onto a 101 handle, topping out at 101.04.
- EUR/USD is on the backfoot vs. the USD as the post-Powell USD buying has dragged the pair lower. Today’s in-line EZ HICP metrics provided little follow-through into the EUR given soft regional prints ahead of the release.
- GBP is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD as Cable extends its move further south of the 1.34 mark, taking out its 10DMA at 1.3338 in the process.
- After a soft start to the session, which looked to be a continued fall out from the post-Powell USD buying, JPY has been able to regain some poise vs. the USD after the pair topped out at 144.53.
- AUD/USD is currently straddling the 0.69 mark after yesterday’s Powell-induced selling pressure dragged the pair away from its 0.6942 YTD peak. For now, the pair is holding above yesterday’s low at 0.6894 with Retail Sales overnight offering some support. NZD/USD is holding just above the 0.63 mark
- BNZ forecasts a 50bps at the October RBNZ policy announcement.
Fixed Income
- USTs are firmer and back to pre-Powell levels after the marked bear-flattening the Chair induced on Monday evening. USTs to a 114-21 peak, approaching Monday’s best which itself is a tick below Friday’s 114-25 peak. Docket ahead is headlined by Final Manufacturing and then, more pertinently, the ISM Manufacturing PMI before remarks from Barkin, Bostic & Cook.
- EGBs are firmer, lifted by the Final PMIs as while there were modest upward revisions the overall growth-narrative remains weak and factors in favour of the doves who are considering an October cut; EZ CPI printed largely in-line, and had no impact. Bunds to a 135.72 peak, which has eclipsed the August 135.66 best for a new contract high.
- Gilts are at a 99.15 peak with supply strong but spurring no move ahead of remarks from Chief Economist Pill this afternoon. BoE’s Greene spoke overnight and noted that she is attentive to any sign that firms could begin passing on higher costs if consumption rebounds strongly. Today’s Manufacturing PMI data for the UK was unrevised.
- UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.75% 2043 Gilt: b/c 3.27x (prev. 3.37x), average yield 4.421% (prev. 4.372%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.2bps)
- Germany sells EUR 3.301bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2029 Bobl: b/c 1.9x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 1.9% (prev. 2.17%) & retention 17.48% (prev. 16.25%)
Commodities
- Subdued trade in the crude complex as the China optimism loses steam (against the backdrop of a cautious risk tone) and with the complex largely ignoring recent geopolitical developments. Do note, Libyan supply is slated to resume today after the dispute between eastern and western factions was settled. Brent’Dec sits just off today’s trough, with the range for today is USD 69.91-71.97/bbl parameter.
- Precious metals are modestly firmer despite the stronger Dollar but amidst the backdrop of escalating geopolitics. XAU sits in a current USD 2,633.31-2,647.51/oz parameter.
- Base metals are somewhat muted/mixed as the complex takes a breather from the recent China-induced gains and in the run-up to risk events including ISM Manufacturing today and NFP on Friday. As a reminder, Chinese markets will be away for the rest of the week amid Golden Week Holiday.
- US buys 6mln bbls of oil for SPR with 1.5mln bbls of oil per month for delivery from February to May 2025, according to the Energy Department.
- Chevron (CVX) reports unplanned flaring at its 290k BPD El Segundo California refinery, according to a community alert.
- BofA retain their bullish call on gold and see yellow metal hitting USD 3000/oz next year. Copper at USD 12,000/t or USD 5.44/lb in 2026
Geopolitics: Middle East
- “Al-Arabiya correspondent: Lebanese army deployed in the Bekaa”, according to Al Arabiya.
- “Israel Broadcasting Corporation quoting an Israeli official: The scale of ground operations in Lebanon could change”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel Security Official says Israeli ground operation is limited, and a wider operation targeting Beirut is “not on the table”; no clashes with Hezbollah reported yet on the ground.
- “Al-Arabiya sources: The Israeli army plans to incursion into Lebanon from 1 to 2 km in the first phase”, according to Al Arabiya
- Israeli military said it began limited, localised and targeted raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon, while it said the targets are located in villages near the border and pose an immediate threat to northern Israeli communities. Furthermore, Axios reported that officials also confirmed that the Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon has started.
- An Israeli strike was reported on a building in Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian Camp near Lebanon’s Sidon and Lebanese sources noted an Israeli raid targeted the house of Major General Munir Al-Maqdah inside the Ain al-Hilweh camp, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel informed Washington it is planning a limited ground operation in Lebanon that could start imminently, according to the Washington Post. Furthermore, a senior US official told Fox that Israel will launch a “limited” ground incursion into South Lebanon, while the official added that an incursion is imminent and will be smaller in scale than in 2006 and last a shorter period of time.
- Israeli Security Cabinet approved the war’s next phase and ministers slammed US leaks about ground operations, according to Times of Israel.
- Hezbollah said it is countering Israeli ground military movements and it targeted Israeli troop movements across from Lebanese border towns.
- Israel’s Channel 12 reported that about 10 rockets were fired from Lebanon and landed in open areas in Miskaf in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia. It was separately reported that the IDF said it monitored the launch of 3 rockets from Lebanon towards Safed and it intercepted two rockets while the other landed in an open area, according to Al Jazeera.
- Syrian state media reported that explosions were heard over Syria’s capital Damascus with Syrian air defences intercepting hostile targets.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they will escalate military operations in response to Israeli attacks.
- Media outlets close to the Houthis noted talk about the Houthis launching a ballistic missile towards Tel Aviv, according to Sky News Arabia. Israel’s Channel 12 reported shortly after that residents in central Israel heard an explosion in the Tel Aviv area.
- A military base hosting US forces near Iraq’s Baghdad International Airport was targeted by a rocket attack.
- Yemeni Houthi spokesperson says group targeted Israeli military posts in Tel Aviv and Eilat with drones.
Geopolitics: Other
- Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia are ready for a long confrontation with the US; They send all necessary warnings.
- North Korea criticised the US deployment of nuclear assets in South Korea with a US B-1B bomber potentially to participate in a planned military parade on Tuesday.
US Event Calendar
- Sept. Wards Total Vehicle Sales, est. 15.7m, prior 15.1m
- 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.0, prior 47.0
- 10:00: Aug. JOLTs Job Openings, est. 7.67m, prior 7.67m
- 10:00: Aug. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior -0.3%
- 10:00: Sept. ISM New Orders, prior 44.6
- Prices Paid, est. 53.5, prior 54.0
- Manufacturing, est. 47.5, prior 47.2
- ISM Employment, prior 46.0
- 10:30: Sept. Dallas Fed Services Activity, prior -7.7
Central Banks
- 11:00: Fed’s Bostic Gives Opening Remarks
- 11:10: Fed’s Bostic Moderates Conversation with Lisa Cook
- 18:15: Fed’s Bostic, Barkin, Collins on Moderated Panel
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Welcome to Q4. As it’s the start of the quarter, we’ll shortly be publishing our usual performance review for Q3 (and September), covering how various financial assets fared. Markets put in a strong overall performance, despite the turmoil in early August, and as it stands, the S&P 500 has now posted its strongest YTD advance of the 21st century so far up to Q3, having advanced more than +20% since the start of the year. Other Q3 highlights include the strongest advance for the Japanese Yen since Q4 2008, whilst US Treasuries are up for a 5th consecutive month for the first time since 2010. See the full report in your inboxes shortly.
When it came to the last day of the month, markets outside of China which had the best day since September 2008 on Monday, saw a mixed day. Europe was down heavily and the US stumbled a little following some less dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, but positive month-end effects late in the session helped the S&P 500 (+0.42%) post its 43rd all-time high of the year.
Powell’s remarks led to some doubts over whether the aggressive pace of the easing cycle priced by markets would materialise. While maintaining data-dependence, he emphasised that the economy remains solid, noting that “this is not a committee that feels like it’s in a hurry to cut rates quickly”. He also reiterated the rates signal from the most recent SEP, saying that “if the economy performs as expected that would mean two more cuts this year, for a total of 50bps more”. So some conditional pushback relative to market expectations that had moved to fully price 75bps of further cuts by year-end.
In response, Fed funds futures tempered the rate cut expectations, with the amount of easing priced by December falling to 70bps, down from 77bps at the start of the day and 73bps before Powell spoke. Off the back of this, Treasury yields extended what had been a modest increase earlier in the day, with 2yr Treasury yields closing +8.2bps higher on the day at 3.64%, while 10yr yields were up +3.0bps to 3.78%.
US equities were briefly weighed down, with the S&P 500 falling by as much as -0.6% following Powell’s comments, but recovered to post yet another record high (+0.42% on the day). This came amid a sharp move in the final 30 minutes of trading, suggesting that month- and quarter-end effects were likely at play. The tech mega caps outperformed in this late rally, with the Mag-7 up around 0.8% in the final half an hour of trading to close +0.63% higher on the day.
Before Powell’s remarks, European markets had lost ground, despite growing anticipation that the ECB would be cutting rates again at their meeting in a couple of weeks’ time. Overnight DB’s European economics team have added a cut at this meeting into their forecast with back-to-back cuts out to neutral (2.00-2.50%) by mid-2025 with risks skewed towards a 50bps in December. See their piece here.
The increased October cut talk was initially driven by the latest German inflation data, where the EU-harmonised measure was down to +1.8% in September as expected. That’s the first sub-2% reading since February 2021, so it helped cement the view that the ECB was well on the way to getting inflation durably back to target. Similarly, the Italian data showed inflation down to just +0.8%, although it’ll be the Euro Area-wide release today that ultimately matters for the ECB’s decision.
After the inflation data, we then heard from ECB President Lagarde, who kept the door open to an October cut in her latest comments to the European Parliament’s Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs. In her prepared remarks, she said that “inflation might temporarily increase in the fourth quarter of this year as previous sharp falls in energy prices drop out of the annual rates, but the latest developments strengthen our confidence that inflation will return to target in a timely manner. We will take that into account in our next monetary policy meeting in October.” That explicit mention of October raised investors’ hopes that the ECB were considering whether to cut once again, and overnight index swaps dialled up the likelihood of an October cut from 82% on Friday to 91% by the close last night.
Despite the mounting rate cut anticipation for October, sovereign bond yields saw little change in Europe yesterday, as investors’ expectations for rate cuts further out into 2025 didn’t see a similar dovish shift. Indeed by the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-1.0bps) were only slightly lower, and those on 10yr OATs (-0.3bps) and BTPs (+0.2bps) were little changed. And for equities there were more consistent losses, with the STOXX 600 (-0.98%) falling back from its all-time high on Friday, whilst the CAC 40 (-2.00%) posted its worst daily performance since August 1.
Asian equity markets are mixed and much quieter this morning with China starting a week long holiday and some other markets closed. The Nikkei is up +1.91% as I type, supported by a weaker yen, after a significant drop of nearly -5% in the previous session, following Shigeru Ishiba’s win in the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership race on Friday, given they are seen as a monetary hawk. In contrast, the S&P/ASX 200 is down by -0.82%, reversing its previous gains after hitting an all-time high yesterday. US futures are pretty flat along with US Treasuries.
Early morning data showed that retail sales in Australia rose +0.7% m/m in August (v/s +0.4% expected) as unusually warm weather brought forward spring spending. This follows an upwardly revised increase of +0.1% in July. Separately, Japan’s unemployment rate dropped to 2.5% in August (v/s +2.6% expected) against a level of +2.7% the previous month. Also, the jobs-to-applicants ratio in August declined to 1.23 from 1.24 in July. The Bloomberg forecast was for 1.24. Meanwhile, business optimism among large Japanese manufacturers remained steady at +13, unchanged from the quarter before. Separately, sentiment among large non-manufacturers improved, rising to +34 from +33 in the second quarter, beating market expectations of +32. So a big data dump in Japan that was generally slightly positive.
There wasn’t too much other data yesterday, although UK mortgage approvals picked up to 64.9k in August, which is their highest level since the month of the mini budget in September 2022. Separately, Q2 GDP growth was revised down a tenth to +0.5%.
To the day ahead now, and from the US we’ll get the ISM manufacturing for September, as well as the JOLTS job openings for August. Otherwise, there’s the global manufacturing PMIs for September, and the Euro Area flash CPI release for September. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Bostic, Cook, Barkin and Collins, ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Nagel, Rehn and Schnabel, and the BoE’s Pill. Today’s earnings releases include Nike. And in the political sphere, there’s a US election debate between the Vice Presidential candidates and French PM Barnier will give a policy speech and likely give clues to the latest on a difficult budget negotiation.
2B) European report
Equities mixed ahead of US data and comments from Fed officials – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 05:17 AM
- Equities are mixed ahead of US ISM Manufacturing and JOLTS data; RTY marginally underperforms
- Dollar is firmer continuing the gains seen post-Powell on Monday, EUR was fairly unreactive to EZ Manufacturing PMIs/HICP
- USTs are firmer and back to pre-Powell levels, Bunds also gain but were unmoved by the EZ PMIs which were revised modestly higher but the overall growth narrative remains weak
- Crude continues to slip, XAU gains and base metals are mixed
- Looking ahead, US, Canadian Manufacturing PMIs, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, Speakers including ECB’s Schnabel, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Bostic, Cook & Barkin, Earnings from Paychex, Nike, Lamb Weston
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) began the session around flat, but quickly dipped lower as sentiment took a hit early in the morning; a move which has since stabilised. As it stands, indices in Europe are mixed and trade very modestly on either side of the unchanged mark. EZ Manufacturing PMI/HICP figures passed through with little impact on price action.
- European sectors hold a slight positive bias, but with the breadth of the market fairly narrow. Tech takes the top spot alongside strength in Travel & Leisure. Energy is found at the foot of the pile, given the continued weakness in oil prices.
- US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ U/C RTY -0.3%) are mixed, with slight underperformance in the economy-linked RTY as traders continue to digest remarks from Fed Chair Powell who pushed back against another oversized cut in 2024.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is building on the gains seen yesterday that were driven by comments from Fed Chair Powell. DXY has briefly made its way onto a 101 handle, topping out at 101.04.
- EUR/USD is on the backfoot vs. the USD as the post-Powell USD buying has dragged the pair lower. Today’s in-line EZ HICP metrics provided little follow-through into the EUR given soft regional prints ahead of the release.
- GBP is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD as Cable extends its move further south of the 1.34 mark, taking out its 10DMA at 1.3338 in the process.
- After a soft start to the session, which looked to be a continued fall out from the post-Powell USD buying, JPY has been able to regain some poise vs. the USD after the pair topped out at 144.53.
- AUD/USD is currently straddling the 0.69 mark after yesterday’s Powell-induced selling pressure dragged the pair away from its 0.6942 YTD peak. For now, the pair is holding above yesterday’s low at 0.6894 with Retail Sales overnight offering some support. NZD/USD is holding just above the 0.63 mark
- BNZ forecasts a 50bps at the October RBNZ policy announcement.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are firmer and back to pre-Powell levels after the marked bear-flattening the Chair induced on Monday evening. USTs to a 114-21 peak, approaching Monday’s best which itself is a tick below Friday’s 114-25 peak. Docket ahead is headlined by Final Manufacturing and then, more pertinently, the ISM Manufacturing PMI before remarks from Barkin, Bostic & Cook.
- EGBs are firmer, lifted by the Final PMIs as while there were modest upward revisions the overall growth-narrative remains weak and factors in favour of the doves who are considering an October cut; EZ CPI printed largely in-line, and had no impact. Bunds to a 135.72 peak, which has eclipsed the August 135.66 best for a new contract high.
- Gilts are at a 99.15 peak with supply strong but spurring no move ahead of remarks from Chief Economist Pill this afternoon. BoE’s Greene spoke overnight and noted that she is attentive to any sign that firms could begin passing on higher costs if consumption rebounds strongly. Today’s Manufacturing PMI data for the UK was unrevised.
- UK sells GBP 2.25bln 4.75% 2043 Gilt: b/c 3.27x (prev. 3.37x), average yield 4.421% (prev. 4.372%) & tail 0.1bps (prev. 0.2bps)
- Germany sells EUR 3.301bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.50% 2029 Bobl: b/c 1.9x (prev. 2.2x), average yield 1.9% (prev. 2.17%) & retention 17.48% (prev. 16.25%)
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Subdued trade in the crude complex as the China optimism loses steam (against the backdrop of a cautious risk tone) and with the complex largely ignoring recent geopolitical developments. Do note, Libyan supply is slated to resume today after the dispute between eastern and western factions was settled. Brent’Dec sits just off today’s trough, with the range for today is USD 69.91-71.97/bbl parameter.
- Precious metals are modestly firmer despite the stronger Dollar but amidst the backdrop of escalating geopolitics. XAU sits in a current USD 2,633.31-2,647.51/oz parameter.
- Base metals are somewhat muted/mixed as the complex takes a breather from the recent China-induced gains and in the run-up to risk events including ISM Manufacturing today and NFP on Friday. As a reminder, Chinese markets will be away for the rest of the week amid Golden Week Holiday.
- US buys 6mln bbls of oil for SPR with 1.5mln bbls of oil per month for delivery from February to May 2025, according to the Energy Department.
- Chevron (CVX) reports unplanned flaring at its 290k BPD El Segundo California refinery, according to a community alert.
- BofA retain their bullish call on gold and see yellow metal hitting USD 3000/oz next year. Copper at USD 12,000/t or USD 5.44/lb in 2026
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU HICP-X F&E Flash YY (Sep) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.8%); HICP-X F,E,A&T Flash YY (Sep) 2.70% vs. Exp. 2.80% (Prev. 2.80%); HICP Flash YY (Sep) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 2.2%); Services Y/Y 4.0% vs. prev. 4.1%
- UK BRC Retail Shop Price Index YY (Sep) -0.6% vs Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%)
- Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 53.0 vs. Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.5)
- Swiss Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 49.9 vs. Exp. 47.8 (Prev. 49).
- Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 48.3 vs. Exp. 49 (Prev. 49.4)
- French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 44.6 vs. Exp. 44 (Prev. 44)
- German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 40.6 vs. Exp. 40.3 (Prev. 40.3)
- EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Sep) 45.0 vs. Exp. 44.8 (Prev. 44.8)
- UK S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Sep) 51.5 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.5)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- Deutsche Bank now expects an ECB cut in October and believes a 50bps move in December could be a close call if recent weaker growth and inflation trends continue.
- ECB’s de Guindos says expectations surveys are an important part of the toolkit available to central banks for their policy analysis.
- ECB’s Rehn sees EZ inflation stabilising at 2% during 2025; direction of monetary policy is clear – rate cuts have begun; stance is becoming less restrictive; pace and scale of cuts decided meeting-by-meeting. Draghi report is a necessary wake-up call about Europe’s low growth and will provide good bases for next commission work programme. EZ growth could be weaker than forecast. In his view, there are now more reasons to justify a rate cut in October; recent weakening of EZ growth outlook also tips the scale in direction of an October cut
- ECB’s Nagel says that future purchases of government bonds by the European Central Bank should be reserved for special cases, according to Bloomberg.
- French PM Barnier is planning to announce additional tax increases of EUR 15-18bln in an attempt to gain back control of the nation’s finances, according to Le Parisien. To speak at 14:00BST/09:00ET
- Riksbank minutes (September meeting): Thedeen said; “The fact that we explicitly state in the draft report that we may make cuts in larger steps is a clear indication that, given the favourable inflation outlook, this is now part of our gradual monetary policy strategy”. “Krona remains undervalued and our inflation forecast is based on the assumption of a gradual appreciation of the exchange rate”. Click for full details.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Port of Houston Authority said in the event of a work stoppage, Port Houston container terminal gates will be closed beginning October 1st. It was reported shortly after that the United States Maritime Alliance said USMX and ILA exchanged counter offers around wages, while it is hopeful to fully resume collective bargaining around other outstanding issues in an effort to reach an agreement. However, the union later rejected the latest USMX Ports contract offer which it called unacceptable, according to a Reuters source.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN MORNING
- “Al-Arabiya correspondent: Lebanese army deployed in the Bekaa”, according to Al Arabiya.
- “Israel Broadcasting Corporation quoting an Israeli official: The scale of ground operations in Lebanon could change”, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel Security Official says Israeli ground operation is limited, and a wider operation targeting Beirut is “not on the table”; no clashes with Hezbollah reported yet on the ground.
- “Al-Arabiya sources: The Israeli army plans to incursion into Lebanon from 1 to 2 km in the first phase”, according to Al Arabiya
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli military said it began limited, localised and targeted raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon, while it said the targets are located in villages near the border and pose an immediate threat to northern Israeli communities. Furthermore, Axios reported that officials also confirmed that the Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon has started.
- An Israeli strike was reported on a building in Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian Camp near Lebanon’s Sidon and Lebanese sources noted an Israeli raid targeted the house of Major General Munir Al-Maqdah inside the Ain al-Hilweh camp, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel informed Washington it is planning a limited ground operation in Lebanon that could start imminently, according to the Washington Post. Furthermore, a senior US official told Fox that Israel will launch a “limited” ground incursion into South Lebanon, while the official added that an incursion is imminent and will be smaller in scale than in 2006 and last a shorter period of time.
- Israeli Security Cabinet approved the war’s next phase and ministers slammed US leaks about ground operations, according to Times of Israel.
- Hezbollah said it is countering Israeli ground military movements and it targeted Israeli troop movements across from Lebanese border towns.
- Israel’s Channel 12 reported that about 10 rockets were fired from Lebanon and landed in open areas in Miskaf in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia. It was separately reported that the IDF said it monitored the launch of 3 rockets from Lebanon towards Safed and it intercepted two rockets while the other landed in an open area, according to Al Jazeera.
- Syrian state media reported that explosions were heard over Syria’s capital Damascus with Syrian air defences intercepting hostile targets.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they will escalate military operations in response to Israeli attacks.
- Media outlets close to the Houthis noted talk about the Houthis launching a ballistic missile towards Tel Aviv, according to Sky News Arabia. Israel’s Channel 12 reported shortly after that residents in central Israel heard an explosion in the Tel Aviv area.
- A military base hosting US forces near Iraq’s Baghdad International Airport was targeted by a rocket attack.
- Yemeni Houthi spokesperson says group targeted Israeli military posts in Tel Aviv and Eilat with drones.
OTHER
- Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister says Russia are ready for a long confrontation with the US; They send all necessary warnings.
- North Korea criticised the US deployment of nuclear assets in South Korea with a US B-1B bomber potentially to participate in a planned military parade on Tuesday.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is essentially flat and holds just beneath USD 64k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the new quarter mixed amid a slew of data releases and several key market closures with markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea closed, while participants also reflected on Fed chair Powell’s recent comments and Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon.
- ASX 200 was pressured as underperformance in the mining, materials and financial sectors overshadowed the resilience in tech and defensives, while data releases were mixed as Retail Sales topped forecasts but Building Approvals showed a sharper-than-feared contraction.
- Nikkei 225 rallied after the recent heavy selling with the recovery facilitated by a weaker currency amid mixed Tankan data and varied BoJ opinions.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September meeting stated that a member said there is no change to the stance of adjusting the degree of monetary support if the economy and prices move in line with forecast although they must be vigilant to factors behind still unstable markets, while there was an opinion from a member that there is no need to raise rates when markets are unstable because they are not behind the curve on inflation and a member also said that given economic and market uncertainties, it is undesirable to make further changes to policy rate in a way that give markets impression they are moving to full-fledged policy tightening. Furthermore, a member said there is no change to the view that the BoJ must raise rates without waiting too long, but the rate hike must not be purpose in itself, while a member also thought that the rate path should move policy rate to 1.0% in the latter half of fiscal 2025 at earliest.
- Japan’s newly appointed Finance Minister Kato says he has been instructed to promote a growth-orientated economy driven by wage increases and investment, via Jiji.
- Japan’s newly appointed Economy Minister Akazawa says he wants the BoJ to decide on future rate hikes carefully; Taking Japan completely out of deflation is the top priority.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q3) 13.0 vs. Exp. 13.0 (Prev. 13.0); Outlook (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 12.0 (Prev. 14.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q3) 34.0 vs. Exp. 32.0 (Prev. 33.0); Outlook (Q3) 28.0 vs. Exp. 30.0 (Prev. 27.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex Estimate (Q3) 10.6% vs. Exp. 11.9% (Prev. 11.1%)
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Aug) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%)
- Australian Building Approvals (Aug) -6.1% vs. Exp. -4.3% (Prev. 10.4%, Rev. 11.0%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM (Aug F) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.0%)
- New Zealand Building Consents (Aug) -5.3% (Prev. 26.2%, Rev. 26.4%)
2C ASIAN REPORT.
Powell hints at return to smaller rate cuts, Eurozone CPI data ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 01:54 AM
- APAC stocks began the new quarter mixed amid a slew of data releases and several key market closures with Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea closed
- Fed Chair Powell hinted at a return to 25bp rate cuts and noted that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates quickly.
- Israeli military said it began limited, localised and targeted raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 1.3% on Monday.
- DXY is steady and holding onto yesterday’s gains, JPY remains pressured vs. peers, EUR/USD sits on a 1.11 handle.
- Looking ahead, highlights include final EZ, US, Canadian Manufacturing PMIs, EZ HICP, US ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, Riksbank Minutes, ECB’s de Guindos, Rehn & Schnabel, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Bostic, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Paychex and Nike
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks were choppy and ultimately closed slightly firmer on month/quarter end in which the S&P 500 led the gains and the majority of sectors closed in green with outperformance in Energy, Communication Services, and Real Estate, while Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Staples underperformed. The highlight of the session was comments from Fed Chair Powell who hinted at a return to 25bp rate cuts after the 50bp move in September as he noted that the Fed is not in a rush to cut rates quickly and if the economy evolves as expected, that would mean two rate cuts by year-end for a total of 50bps, implying 25bp in November and December. As such, the downplaying of another oversized 50bp cut saw stocks and bonds tumble while the Dollar rallied.
- SPX +0.42% at 5,762, NDX +0.26% at 20,061, DJIA +0.04% at 42,330, RUT +0.24% at 2,230.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Chair Powell said policy will move over time towards a more neutral stance if the economy evolves broadly as expected, while he added that risks are two-sided and decisions will be meeting-by-meeting. Powell said the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly and will be guided by data, as well as noted that the rate cut process will play out ‘over some time’ with no need to go fast. Furthermore, he said the Fed will take everything into account in the November rate decision and if the economy evolves as expected that would mean two more cuts this year for a total of 50bps.
- Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said he is open to another 50bp rate cut if the labour market shows unexpected weakness and stated the baseline case is for an ‘orderly’ easing with inflation expected to continue slowing and job market to hold up. Furthermore, he pencilled in just a single further 25bp rate cut this year beyond the 50bps in September and said his baseline outlook through the end of 2025 would see a policy rate of between 3.00-3.25% (vs Fed median of 3.40%).
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) is worried about a possible continued port shutdown and said the Fed is cutting rates because the economy has normalised, according to a Fox Business News interview. Goolsbee sees ‘cautionary’ indicators on the job market and said the Fed cannot wait for the job market to weaken before acting, while he added the most important thing about rate cuts is the process of easing, as well as noted there will be a lot of rate cuts and inflation is coming in close to target.
- Port of Houston Authority said in the event of a work stoppage, Port Houston container terminal gates will be closed beginning October 1st. It was reported shortly after that the United States Maritime Alliance said USMX and ILA exchanged counter offers around wages, while it is hopeful to fully resume collective bargaining around other outstanding issues in an effort to reach an agreement. However, the union later rejected the latest USMX Ports contract offer which it called unacceptable, according to a Reuters source.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks began the new quarter mixed amid a slew of data releases and several key market closures with markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and South Korea closed, while participants also reflected on Fed chair Powell’s recent comments and Israel’s ground offensive in Lebanon.
- ASX 200 was pressured as underperformance in the mining, materials and financial sectors overshadowed the resilience in tech and defensives, while data releases were mixed as Retail Sales topped forecasts but Building Approvals showed a sharper-than-feared contraction.
- Nikkei 225 rallied after the recent heavy selling with the recovery facilitated by a weaker currency amid mixed Tankan data and varied BoJ opinions.
- US equity futures (ES -0.1%) traded little changed after the prior day’s choppy performance and recent Fed speak, while participants now look towards ISM data.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.2% after the cash market closed lower by 1.3% on Monday.
FX
- DXY trades steadily and holding on to recent spoils which were facilitated by remarks from Fed Chair Powell who noted the Fed is not in a hurry to cut rates quickly and if the economy evolves as expected, that would mean two more cuts this year for a total of 50bps, implying 25bps moves in November and December.
- EUR/USD attempted to recoup some lost ground after its slip from the 1.1200 level although the rebound was limited as EU CPI data looms.
- GBP/USD was rangebound after yesterday’s indecision and downward Q2 GDP revisions, while UK BRC shop prices fell by the most in 3 years.
- USD/JPY extended its gradual recovery from the post-LDP vote slump as the BoJ Summary of Opinions suggested some views against hiking.
- Antipodeans were mixed with AUD/USD briefly supported following better-than-expected Retail Sales although the upside was limited by disappointing Building Approvals, while NZD/USD trickled lower following a contraction in Building Approvals and with BNZ forecasting a 50bps cut at next week’s RBNZ meeting.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures nursed some losses after having bear flattened amid Fed Chair Powell’s comments who leaned back against another oversized rate cut in 2024.
- Bund futures continued to oscillate around the 135.00 level with price action contained ahead of EU CPI and German Bobl supply.
- 10yr JGB futures eked slight gains in rangebound trade after mixed Tankan data and the BoJ’s Summary of Opinions from the September meeting where there were some views suggesting caution in raising rates amid uncertainties.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were little changed following the prior day’s indecision and despite the geopolitical escalation in which Israel began a ground offensive in Lebanon, with prices contained as Libya’s halted oil output is expected to commence today.
- US buys 6mln bbls of oil for SPR with 1.5mln bbls of oil per month for delivery from February to May 2025, according to the Energy Department.
- Russia doesn’t rule out extending the OPEC+ agreement beyond 2025 if the market situation requires it, according to TASS citing Russian Deputy PM Novak. It was also stated that OPEC+ countries are purposefully temporarily ceding oil market share to prevent shortages that could be 5 years from now.
- Spot gold attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses after suffering alongside the recent dollar strength.
- Copper futures lacked direction with demand lacklustre after yesterday’s price swings and amid a week-long absence of its largest buyer.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin mildly gained overnight and traded both sides of the 63,500 level before eventually extending northward.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- BoJ Summary of Opinions from the September meeting stated that a member said there is no change to the stance of adjusting the degree of monetary support if the economy and prices move in line with forecast although they must be vigilant to factors behind still unstable markets, while there was an opinion from a member that there is no need to raise rates when markets are unstable because they are not behind the curve on inflation and a member also said that given economic and market uncertainties, it is undesirable to make further changes to policy rate in a way that give markets impression they are moving to full-fledged policy tightening. Furthermore, a member said there is no change to the view that the BoJ must raise rates without waiting too long, but the rate hike must not be purpose in itself, while a member also thought that the rate path should move policy rate to 1.0% in the latter half of fiscal 2025 at earliest.
DATA RECAP
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index (Q3) 13.0 vs. Exp. 13.0 (Prev. 13.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 14.0 vs. Exp. 12.0 (Prev. 14.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Index (Q3) 34.0 vs. Exp. 32.0 (Prev. 33.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook (Q3) 28.0 vs. Exp. 30.0 (Prev. 27.0)
- Japanese Tankan Large All Industry Capex Estimate (Q3) 10.6% vs. Exp. 11.9% (Prev. 11.1%)
- Japanese Unemployment Rate (Aug) 2.5% vs. Exp. 2.6% (Prev. 2.7%)
- Australian Building Approvals (Aug) -6.1% vs. Exp. -4.3% (Prev. 10.4%, Rev. 11.0%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM (Aug F) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.0%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel conducted artillery shelling on southern Lebanese towns in preparation for the launch of the ground operation, while the ground offensive is expected to start from the eastern sector in southern Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia citing their correspondent. There were reports shortly after that Israeli tanks infiltrated the village of Rmeish in southern Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya citing a correspondent.
- Israeli military said it began limited, localised and targeted raids against Hezbollah targets in the border area of southern Lebanon, while it said the targets are located in villages near the border and pose an immediate threat to northern Israeli communities. Furthermore, Axios reported that officials also confirmed that the Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon has started.
- Israeli military warned residents in Beirut suburbs to evacuate due to imminent strikes on Hezbollah targets, while a large blast was heard after warnings of an Israeli strike on Beirut’s southern suburbs, according to a Reuters witness.
- An Israeli strike was reported on a building in Ain Al-Hilweh Palestinian Camp near Lebanon’s Sidon and Lebanese sources noted an Israeli raid targeted the house of Major General Munir Al-Maqdah inside the Ain al-Hilweh camp, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israeli officials earlier said they were preparing for a limited group operation in villages in southern Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya. It was also reported that Israel informed Washington it is planning a limited ground operation in Lebanon that could start imminently, according to the Washington Post. Furthermore, a senior US official told Fox that Israel will launch a “limited” ground incursion into South Lebanon, while the official added that an incursion is imminent and will be smaller in scale than in 2006 and last a shorter period of time.
- Israeli Security Cabinet approved the war’s next phase and ministers slammed US leaks about ground operations, according to Times of Israel.
- Israel was reportedly preparing for a significant expansion of the war including an “exchange of blows” with Iran soon, according to Israel’s Channel 13 correspondent Moriah Ashraf via Telegram.
- Hezbollah said it is countering Israeli ground military movements and it targeted Israeli troop movements across from Lebanese border towns.
- Hezbollah has not asked for any help from Iran but they are at their side, according to Reuters citing Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah.
- Israel’s Channel 12 reported that about 10 rockets were fired from Lebanon and landed in open areas in Miskaf in northern Israel, according to Sky News Arabia. It was separately reported that the IDF said it monitored the launch of 3 rockets from Lebanon towards Safed and it intercepted two rockets while the other landed in an open area, according to Al Jazeera.
- Lebanese troops pulled back to 5km north of the border, according to Reuters citing Lebanese security sources.
- Syrian state media reported that explosions were heard over Syria’s capital Damascus with Syrian air defences intercepting hostile targets.
- Yemen’s Houthis said they will escalate military operations in response to Israeli attacks.
- Media outlets close to the Houthis noted talk about the Houthis launching a ballistic missile towards Tel Aviv, according to Sky News Arabia. Israel’s Channel 12 reported shortly after that residents in central Israel heard an explosion in the Tel Aviv area.
- A military base hosting US forces near Iraq’s Baghdad International Airport was targeted by a rocket attack.
- The Pentagon said the US is to send a ‘few thousand’ additional troops to the Middle East to boost security and defend Israel if needed, according to AP.
OTHER
- North Korea criticised the US deployment of nuclear assets in South Korea with a US B-1B bomber potentially to participate in a planned military parade on Tuesday.
EU/UK
DATA RECAP
- UK BRC Retail Shop Price Index YY (Sep) -0.6% vs Exp. -0.3% (Prev. -0.3%)
- French PM Barnier is planning to announce additional tax increases of EUR 15-18bln in an attempt to gain back control of the nation’s finances, according to Le Parisien.
2 JAPAN
JAPAN/
END
3 CHINA
China Offers Easing “Gift” To Homebuyers, Sparking Continued Iron Ore & Property Market Euphoria
Monday, Sep 30, 2024 – 09:20 PM
Iron ore and Chinese property stocks surged after three of the country’s largest metro areas loosened homebuyer rules. This move follows last week’s central government stimulus package, which was aimed at stabilizing the vicious downturn in the housing market.
Bloomberg reports that Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen eased homebuying rules:
On Sunday, the trading hub of Guangzhou became the first tier-1 city to remove all restrictions, saying it will stop reviewing homebuyer eligibility and no longer limit the number of homes owned.
Both Shanghai and Shenzhen said they will allow more people to purchase residences in suburban areas, as well as allow others to buy more homes. Shanghai, China’s financial hub, and Shenzhen, the southern city known for its tech industry, also announced they were lowering minimum downpayment ratios for first and second homes to 15% and 20%, respectively, in a bid to boost demand.
Goldamn’s James McGeoch told clients this AM:
The weekend Spec was that China fiscal would come ahead of the holiday, as a “gift” to the 75th anniversary on National Day, released in the press release of the Second State council Meeting. Focus on property and consumption in the headlines i have read and the iron ore indexes up a short 10% (SGX $112 and DCE +10%).
Iron ore’s stunning multi-day reversal has sent prices from $90/ton to $108/ton. Gains overnight topped 11%, adding to 11% last week following the central government’s move to deploy stimulus (read here).
A separate note from Goldman’s Thomas Evans early last week told clients to “fade iron ore rallies” on potential short covering ahead of the long holiday in China, noting “steel overcapacity and growing supply in iron ore are the two biggest headwinds to ferrous supply chain, which can’t be fixed any time soon.”
In equity markets, a Bloomberg gauge of Chinese real estate stocks jumped as much as 14% after the news. There was also mention that China’s central bank would allow mortgage refinancing.
Bloomberg’s Jake Lloyd-Smith penned a note this Am titled “Iron Ore’s Sudden Euphoria May Be Overdone,” in which he said:
Beijing’s pre-holiday salvo, plus follow-through steps in key urban centers, will do much to improve the mood. Over time, this may stabilize the real estate market. But whether that’s enough to persuade mills that have been complaining of an industry-wide crisis to change course and actually increase steel output on a sustained basis in the coming quarter remains to be seen.
The slowdown in China’s property market has been a significant challenge for steelmakers, with some slashing production and warning about an outlook that mirrors 2008 and 2015.
Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts led by Wenyu Yao noted that China’s stimulus will be supportive: “Bullish momentum could persist into LME Week.”
The most interesting aspect of China’s recovery will be its shape. Analysts warn that the property market still faces headlines.
“It may take time and could still prove challenging to turn around residents’ bearish views with existing policies,” Morgan Stanley’s Cheung told clients.
Perhaps the days of a ‘V-shape’ recovery are long past.
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
AUSTRIA
end
AUSTRIA/
end
GERMANY
END
GERMANY
end
SWEDEN
end
5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/Tuesday morning
Ground operation begins: IDF attacks in Southern Lebanon!
(JerusalemPost)
IDF begins ground operation in southern Lebanon, attacks Hezbollah terror targets
IDF attacks in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah terrorists. Ground forces are supported by Israel Air Force.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 30, 2024 22:06Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 02:58
IDF soldiers entered southern Lebanon as part of a ground assault on Monday night while the conflict with Hezbollah continued to escalate increasingly, Israel’s military confirmed the operation during the early hours of Tuesday morning.
“The IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon,” Israel’s military said.
It added that the IDF will be carrying out “a methodical plan set out by the General Staff and the Northern Command, which soldiers have trained and prepared for in recent months.”
Arabic media such as Al-Jazeera and MTV Lebanon claimed that IDF tanks had entered multiple villages in southern Lebanon shortly after initial reports of the ground invasion.
“This is what they have informed us that they are currently conducting, which are limited operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure near the border,” US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said to the press on Monday, according to AFP.
The confirmed invasion was the first IDF ground operation in Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Additionally, the IDF Spokesperson in Arabic, Avichay Adraee, warned residents of Beirut suburbs to evacuate on Monday night.
Shortly after, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari asked the media not to “share reports about the forces’ activities, due to the security of our forces. Stick to the official reports only and do not spread irresponsible rumors.”
The IDF and the Lebanese army started making moves around 9:00 pm. regarding the imminent Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
The IDF at 8:39 p.m. took additional last-minute concrete measures leading toward an invasion, declaring closed military zones at Metulla, Misgav Am, and Kfar Giladi.
Shortly after, the Lebanese army started withdrawing from several positions in southern Lebanon.
Unconfirmed reports indicated that the IDF opened up with massive tank fire at specific positions in southern Lebanon.
Earlier Monday evening, The Jerusalem Post had reported that the invasion of Lebanon could start the moment that the security cabinet approves, sources have told the Jerusalem Post.
The cabinet, which started to meet on the issue at 7:30 p.m., was given multiple choices for what kind of invasion to choose from, though the expected initial focus is still southern Lebanon.
A key focus of the invasion will be to remove the infrastructure that Hezbollah’s Radwan special forces could have tried to use to invade Israel and threaten the northern border towns.
In addition, US President Joe Biden and a wave of US officials have been warning of an imminent Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon to start later Monday.
The clock toward an IDF ground invasion of southern Lebanon started to move ahead much faster than expected even a day or so ago as signs of Hezbollah’s weakness grew in recent days.
Senior IDF sources have been extremely surprised at how ineffective Hezbollah has been at responding to the military’s onslaught against it over the last two weeks and in particular since Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated this past Friday.
They also said as recently as Sunday night that a significant majority of Hezbollah’s capability to retaliate on the Israeli home front has been harmed and makes it far more reduced than might have been expected.
Although when Israel started to pummel Hezbollah around two weeks ago, it believed it could achieve some element of surprise and degrade the Lebanese terror group somewhat in terms of retaliation, the Home Front Command slapping restrictions on the entire North, including Haifa, was a foreshadowing of concern that the IDF expected Haifa could get hit very hard.
Instead, not a single person in Haifa has been killed by Hezbollah, and the city has barely been touched. Likewise, much of the southern portions of the North that were expected to be hit hard for the first time by Hezbollah’s longer-range rockets have felt minimal impact compared to the dark forecast.
In fact, not a single Israeli has been killed by Hezbollah since Nasrallah was killed three days ago.
Cities like Safed, Acre, Nahariya, Kiryat Shmona, and villages farther North, which have been under short-range rocket fire for extended periods, remain so. Still, that level of threat is nowhere near the strategic level threat that the IDF expected Hezbollah to pose – potentially killing thousands of Israelis and ravaging Tel Aviv and critical infrastructure.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s statements to the Tank Corps and other statements to northern town leaders on Monday that he expected to be using ground forces soon against Hezbollah was not just a throwaway statement but a true statement of intent, the Jerusalem Post understands.
The fact that key IDF officials on Monday were confirming that a significant majority of Hezbollah’s capabilities have been harmed, whereas on Friday many top IDF officials were warning that such statements were hubris, seems to indicate how the vacuum of Hezbollah’s response extending over several days has shifted the defense establishment’s view about how deeply Hezbollah is reeling.
There was also no real statement by Hezbollah about the war from Friday until Monday, and even on Monday, it is unclear who will replace Nasrallah or when such an announcement will be made. In other words, it is unclear who is running Hezbollah now and who and whether a central leader will be running it if an IDF invasion starts relatively soon.
IDF officials have been canceling planned interviews for emergency meetings, which signal that “all hands” are being called in for the invasion just as footage of more and more forces moving North has been streaming across social media.
A public leak to the Wall Street Journal early Monday about small special forces targeted Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon to prepare the area for a larger attack, including starting to deal with tunnel ambush issues, also could be preparing the Israeli public and the world for the reality of a fuller ground invasion.
This is especially true because the idea of Israeli forces making small incursions into Lebanon is not actually new and has been a well-kept secret for months, with only foreign media being able to report on it.
Sources have told the Post that a decision is still not final about the shape and size of the ground invasion, though initially, it is expected to be limited to portions of southern Lebanon.
Israel is sensitive to US and Western concerns to not be viewed as occupiers in Lebanon and to only frame the invasion in terms of restoring UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which obligated Hezbollah to remain North of the Litani River.
In addition, a sudden Hezbollah success against Israel, or readiness to negotiate, or sudden increased pressure from the US to not invade could also delay an invasion, but at press time, all of the momentum is moving toward a ground invasion and sooner than expected even a day or so ago.
Biden’s criticism of the invasion on Monday seems to have been viewed by Israel as almost pro forma, given that there was no threat nor was there any presentation of an imminent diplomatic solution that Hezbollah would accept.
Earlier Monday, the IDF also destroyed a warehouse of surface-to-air missile launchers that Hezbollah had placed just 1.5 kilometers from Lebanon’s Beirut International Airport, the military said on Monday.
In their statement, the IDF said that the placement of these missiles was a threat to the international airspace for passenger planes and could hit any aircraft flying into the Lebanese airspace.
In addition, the IDF destroyed a wide range of long-range and medium-range missiles and rockets, which could threaten Haifa, central Israel, and the Tel Aviv Corridor.
Further, the IDF eliminated the Hezbollah terrorist Eid Hassan, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array, the military said on Monday.
Hassan had served as Hezbollah’s commander of the surface-to-surface rocket unit.
His killing goes along with the targeted killings of several other top rocket and drone Hezbollah commanders on Monday and in recent days.
This follows earlier reports that Israel notified the US that it intends to launch a limited ground operation into Lebanon that could begin within hours, a US official confirmed to CBS on Monday. Other news sources have reported that an Israeli incursion could come within the coming days.
Israeli-Hezbollah tensions boil over into open war
The report of an IDF invasion follows an ongoing pattern of escalation between Hezbollah and the IDF since the start of the Israel-Hamas War. On Friday, the IDF carried out an airstrike on Hezbollah’s central headquarters, killing former secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah.
Previous IDF strikes have killed numerous senior Hezbollah terrorists in recent weeks, including a strike on Beirut that killed at least 16 high-ranking Hezbollah members, including Hezbollah’s Operations Division chief Ibrahim Aliq.
This also follows a series of widespread incidents throughout Lebanon and Syria where several communications devices owned by members of Hezbollah, such as pagers and radios, mysteriously exploded, killing several and wounding thousands. Hezbollah and foreign reports accused Israel of being behind the incidents.
The Iran-backed terrorist group has also been firing numerous rockets, drones, and missiles at the Jewish state since the start of the Israel-Hamas War, with the frequent barrages forcing tens of thousands of Israelis to flee from their homes in the North.
Heavy strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs during the night hours (local):
rs/status/1840862845074096146?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1840862845074096146%7Ctwgr%5E8ac8c67d64d3371ad24e8f2bef951de560
end
(zerohedge)
Israel Launches “Limited” Ground Invasion Of Lebanon 6 PM LOCAL TIME
IDF begins Lebanon ground invasion, Israel strikes Beirut suburbs 3 AM LOCAL TIME
Evacuation warnings issued to residents of Beirut suburbs
Monday, Sep 30, 2024 – 07:08 PM
Update(1908ET): Israel has named the new cross-border offensive “Operation Northern Arrows”. Below is an early description by the IDF as posted to Telegram and other government channels [emphasis ZH]:
IDF troops have begun limited, localized and targeted raids against Hezbollah terror targets in the border area of southern Lebanon
In accordance with the decision of the political echelon, a few hours ago, the IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon. These targets are located in villages close to the border and pose an immediate threat to Israeli communities in northern Israel.
The IDF is operating according to a methodical plan set out by the General Staff and the Northern Command which IDF soldiers have trained and prepared for in recent months.
The Israeli Air Force and IDF Artillery are supporting the ground forces with precise strikes on military targets in the area.
Some Lebanese accounts have claimed that Hezbollah has already killed and wounded some invading Israeli soldiers, but these reports will remain hard to verify within the opening hours of the campaign and amid the fog of war.
end
Then this;
Israel/Iran
IF THIS HAPPENS WORLD WAR III BEGINS. ISRAEL WILL NUKE IRAN AND THEN ALL HELL BREAKS OUT….
Iran To ‘Imminently’ Launch Ballistic Missiles On Israel; White House Warns
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 09:44 AM
Axios is reporting that the White House has intelligence saying Iran imminently plans to carry out a missile attack on Israel in retaliation for the Friday killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
A senior White House has said, “The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel.”
“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran,” the official continued. Crude prices immediately responded to the headline…
witter.com/RNCResearch/status/1840794318442811642?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwt
It seems the White House is prepared to defend Israeli militarily, though there has been no official authorization in Congress (much less a debate).
The Pentagon on Monday confirmed that it is sending a “few thousand additional troops” to the Middle East to be on standby if needed to defend Israel from a broader attack. This is widely being seen as preparation for war against Iran, if needed.
This is to include the new deployments of squadrons of F-15, F-16, F-22, and A-10 fighter jets along with assisting personnel. It was only the day prior that President Biden was asked if he would be sending more troops to the Middle East. He replied: “No.”
Meanwhile…
LOCKHEED, NORTHROP SHARES TOUCH SESSION HIGHS
developing…
end
LATE TUESDAY MORNING/ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
IDF invasion of southern Lebanon meets no Hezbollah resistance
The invasion is expected to end within weeks, and should consist of several short special forces missions into southern Lebanon.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBOCTOBER 1, 2024 15:08Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 16:12
The IDF’s invasion into southern Lebanon which started Monday night just before 10:00 p.m. has met almost no resistance from Hezbollah, with not a single IDF soldier killed so far.
The invasion is expected to end within weeks, despite IDF spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari indicating it may last longer.
In some ways, the invasion is viewed as a broadening of a large number of very short nightly special forces missions into southern Lebanon, which have been going on for an extended period.
Following a situation assessment, the IDF announced it was remobilizing four additional brigades in support of operations in Lebanon.
IDF sources explained that the heavy bombing campaign over the last two weeks, the massive tank and artillery fire just before entering, and months of wearing down Hezbollah’s forces seem to have moved them out of the area or into hiding.
Unlike in the 2006 Second Lebanon War, the IDF said that Hezbollah’s top and medium level command levels have been eliminated in substantial numbers, leaving a massive strategic vacuum.
Despite the invasion, the killing of Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, and two weeks of heavy bombing of much of the terror group’s best rockets, the IDF said Hezbollah has failed to mount any serious strategic rocket threat to Israel, let alone to fire the 6,000-8,000 rockets per day which were expected in a worst case scenario.
The IDF invasion of southern Lebanon has met no Hezbollah resistance
A narrow mission
To date, the mission is narrow and involves an invasion only within southern Lebanon and only to destroy Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the area, such as to eliminate its weapons, which have been stored to be ready to invade Israel.
This is consistent with the war mission in the North being returning security to the 60,000 residents evacuated from their homes in October 2023 to avoid them being killed in an invasion.
However, it will not eliminate Hezbollah’s rocket threat to Israel, though this threat has been substantially damaged.
Prior to the invasion, the IDF had already undertaken around 70 small incursion operations over 200 nights. Some operations lasted up to three days. In total, the IDF said it destroyed 700 terror targets.
During recent incursions into Lebanon and the current invasion, the IDF has already destroyed 450 anti-tank missiles, 150 mines, 50 special improvised explosives, 22 Kornet anti-tank missiles, at least two special anti-tank missiles from Iran, and many other weapons.
In Aita al-Shaab, the IDF has destroyed 103 terror targets, including finding 51 tunnel shafts and nine rocket launchers. Tunnels there ran around 25 meters deep.
In Meis el-Jabal, the IDF destroyed 91 targets, destroying 13 lookout posts and many other weapons. Tunnels there ran nearly 12 meters deep and were only 30 meters from the Blue Line.
In Kfar Kila, the IDF destroyed 158 targets, 28 lookout posts and weapons
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH//
Israel strikes Palestinian camp near south Lebanon’s Sidon for first time since Oct. 7
By ReutersToday, 3:34 a
Israel launched a strike on a building in Ain El-Hilweh Palestinian camp near south Lebanon’s Sidon early on Tuesday, a Palestinian source and Lebanese media says.
It marks the first strike on the overcrowded camp, Lebanon’s largest of several Palestinian camps, since cross-border hostilities broke out nearly a year ago.
More from today’s Liveblog:
- Syrian state TV says journalist killed in Israeli strikes on Damascus
- IAF intercepts unmanned aircraft over Mediterranean, dozens of miles off central Israel coast
- Syrian air defences intercept ‘hostile targets’ over vicinity of Damascus
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
US official tells ToI: We understand Israeli desire for limited Lebanon incursion, but concerned about mission creep
By Jacob Magid
IDF troops evacuate soldiers wounded by a Hezbollah missile attack against the the Ramim Ridge area, near the border with Lebanon, September 19, 2024. (Ayal Margolin/Flash90)
A US official tells The Times of Israel that the Biden administration understands and accepts what Israel is trying to accomplish with a limited ground incursion into Lebanon.
Israeli officials have told their US counterparts that the goal of the limited operation is to remove Hezbollah positions along Israel’s northern border, creating the conditions for a diplomatic agreement under which the terror group’s forces would be pushed back beyond the Litani River, in line with UN Security Council resolution, an Israeli official says.
The US official accepts the Israeli logic but says Washington is still concerned that the IDF will get bogged down in Lebanon or be drawn to expand the mission once it’s already in motion.
The US official notes that Israel is also concerned about such mission creep.
Another US official speaking to The Times of Israel points to how Israel also framed its 1982 invasion into Lebanon as a “limited” incursion, but it turned into an 18-year occupation of southern Lebanon.
State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a briefing earlier today: “We recognize that, at times, military pressure can enable diplomacy. That’s true. It is also true that military pressure can lead to miscalculation. It can lead to unintended consequences.”
end
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/ANALYSIS
Israel’s Third Lebanon War is underway. Here’s what you need to know – analysis
Fighting intensifies between Israeli troops and Hezbollah along the Israel-Lebanon border, raising concerns over escalating conflict and civilian safety.
By BEN SALES/JTAOCTOBER 1, 2024 02:58Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 03:50
(JTA) — Fighting is underway between Israeli troops and Hezbollah fighters along the Israel-Lebanon border.
What is yet unclear: How many will fight, how long they will stay there, how many people will be killed and whether the blazing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel, after a year of bloodshed, will cross the tipping point into an all-out war. Also unclear is what it will take to secure Israel’s north enough that civilians who have been evacuated from the region for nearly a year can safely return.
What is clear is that Israel seems intent on striking a decisive blow against a terror group that has, for decades, posed a formidable threat — even in the face of potentially steep costs. Over the past year, Hezbollah has rained missiles on Israel on a near-daily basis, with Israel returning fire.
For all of that time, the conflict seemed like a sideshow compared to the focus of Israel’s military campaign: the grueling war against Hamas in Gaza. But over the past two weeks things have changed: Israel has killed Hezbollah’s leader and several of his deputies; depleted the terror group’s missile stock; and girded its own population for yet another war on its border.
Israelis appear to support a war in Lebanon. But previous invasions into the country have had inconclusive results and cost Israel in terms of the lives of its soldiers and its international standing.
Here’s what to know about Israel’s incipient Third Lebanon War.
Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting for a long time.
Tensions rise with Hezbollah
The first few decades of Israel’s existence saw it fight repeated wars against Egypt and Syria. The past few decades have seen it fight repeated wars against Hamas and Hezbollah.
Hezbollah was founded in the wake of Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. That invasion was aimed primarily at another erstwhile foe — the Palestine Liberation Organization. But soon Israeli soldiers found themselves fighting Hezbollah, an Islamist terror group dedicated to Israel’s destruction.
Israeli soldiers occupied a strip of southern Lebanon until 2000, primarily facing attacks from Hezbollah, which also killed hundreds of American soldiers in two attacks in 1983 on the U.S. Embassy and a military barracks.
Six years later, the two sides clashed again when Hezbollah kidnapped two Israeli soldiers. Israel invaded Lebanon again, but the war is considered a fiasco in Israel: More than 100 Israeli soldiers and hundreds of Hezbollah fighters were killed, as were dozens of Israeli civilians and more than 1,000 Lebanese civilians.
Most importantly, Hezbollah remained intact. The terror group has ignored a United Nations resolution calling on it to withdraw to north of the Litani River, which would have created a buffer in southern Lebanon.
Since then, Hezbollah has been Iran’s most well funded proxy, a force estimated at as many as 100,000 fighters (but with perhaps half that number) and hundreds of thousands of missiles. Its rockets could reach virtually all of Israel.
Since 2006, the group has proven a loyal and useful ally to Iran. Its fighters shored up Bashar Assad’s dictatorial regime in the Syrian civil war, and it has created what has been called a “state within a state” in southern Lebanon. It also has a significant presence in Lebanon’s parliament. On Monday, the New York Times called it the “senior member” of Iran’s so-called “Axis of Resistance” in the Middle East.
Over that time, Israel has regularly bombed weapons shipments to Hezbollah. But until last fall the two sides had refrained from another major conflict.
Hezbollah started bombing Israel on October 8. That was only the beginning.
A day after Hamas invaded Israel, Hezbollah started shelling Israel’s north. The missiles have continued unabated for nearly a year, aside from when Hezbollah abided by the weeklong truce between Israel and Hamas in November.
Israel has bombed Hezbollah positions in Lebanon, and altogether, hundreds of the group’s fighters have been killed, as were dozens of civilians on both sides. The border area in both countries is a no-man’s-land. And with tens of thousands of Israelis from the north living as evacuees in hotels for nearly a year, support for striking a harsher blow against Hezbollah has risen.
A survey last month found nearly two-thirds of Israelis overall support fighting Hezbollah, while only about a quarter support a ceasefire deal with the group.
And Israel seems like it’s heeding that call. The last few weeks have seen a series of eye-popping operations from Israel’s military and intelligence systems: exploding pagers that wounded thousands and killed dozens; strikes on Hezbollah leaders; explosions of Hezbollah weapons depots.
Then, over the weekend, Israel killed the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah. He was the face and embodiment of Hezbollah — its leader for more than 30 years and an archnemesis of Israel. An analysis from the Council on Foreign Relations concludes, “The group has likely been rendered operationally inert — at least for the foreseeable future. Indeed, there are no clear successors to Nasrallah given his unique and unrivaled stature at the top of the movement.”
Yet the group is signaling that it has a lot of fight left. In a videotaped address released Monday, a top Hezbollah official said all of the slain members could be replaced and said the attacks on Israel so far represented a “minimum” effort for the group.
Now Israel is preparing for a ground war. It won’t be easy.
Israel isn’t stopping with Nasrallah’s assassination. Reports on Monday indicated that Israeli forces and artillery are fighting on the border and that troops are massing for an invasion. It has reportedly notified the United States of its plans for a ground operation.
Israeli soldiers have been conducting training exercises on Lebanon’s border for months, in anticipation of a war to clear Hezbollah out of a range where it can shoot anti-tank fire at Israeli towns, removing a major threat. The pager operation also revealed that it has been tracking and plotting against the terror group for a long time. So in a sense, as opposed to when it was caught flat-footed on October 7, Israel’s military may be prepared for fighting in Lebanon.
But as many Israeli combat veterans know from previous conflicts, Lebanon is an unforgiving terrain. It’s mountainous, and, even leaderless, Hezbollah has long been entrenched there. Southern Lebanon is much larger than Gaza, where Israel has been fighting a difficult war for a year — though it has many fewer residents.
“Hezbollah today is far more formidable [than in 2000], and even if it suffered more losses than it felt it could handle, the bulk of its forces could retreat away from the border region and simply return when Israel left, or conduct regular guerrilla attacks at a time of its choosing should Israeli forces stay,” an analysis in Foreign Policy concluded.
There is also the question of what another war will do to Israeli society. Israel sent hundreds of thousands of soldiers to the front after October 7, with many men spending months away from family and work. Hundreds have been killed in Gaza. While there is broad Israeli support for increased fighting in Lebanon to end the missile fire from the north, it also means another massive call-up of already exhausted Israeli reservists — just as Israelis had hoped to carve out a measure of solace during the High Holidays.
The United States supports Israel. For now.
President Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, both defended the assassination of Nasrallah and have continued funding Israel’s military effort. But Biden has also been publicly calling for a ceasefire in the north alongside his so far fruitless efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.
What will that mean if a Lebanon war drags out? Donald Trump has appeared supportive of Israel’s military efforts but also has an isolationist bent and called on Israel to finish its fight quickly. Harris is already facing pressure from her left flank to reduce or end her support for Israel’s war in Gaza. Many of those same voices, in Congress and beyond, have condemned Israel’s strikes in Lebanon and would no doubt push Harris to cut off support for a Lebanon war.
The United States has also worked for the past year to prevent a broader regional war. If Iran attacks Israel to avenge Nasrallah’s death, that scenario could unfold, turning the Middle East into one large war zone.
Following the strike on Nasrallah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Iran that Israel could attack its territory as well. And in remarks on Monday, he suggested that his citizens prepare for another war.
“I would like to stand by our heroic soldiers, conscripts and reservists,” he said. “While we celebrate the new year, may it be a good one, they will continue to defend our country with that same dedication, sacrifice and heroism that they have shown throughout the past year.”
He added, “Finally, I would like to thank all citizens of Israel: The reservists’ wives, the mothers and fathers of our fighters, and the children, for being steadfast throughout such a long period. We are in a war for our very existence. We will unite, go hand-in-hand and defeat our enemies.”
END
ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH TUESDAY MORNING
IDF division that broke Hamas in Khan Yunis spearheads Lebanon invasion
Division 98 was responsible for breaking the back of Hamas in Khan Yunis, its strongest fighting brigade, from December 2023 to March 2024.
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFSEPTEMBER 30, 2024 22:06Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 11:07
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3779387&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-821158IDF troops prepare for the ground maneuver in southern Lebanon. September 30, 2024. (Credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT).
The IDF’s invasion of southern Lebanon late Monday night was led by Division 98 and its commander, Brig. Gen. Guy Levi, who also led the commando unit, the Egoz special forces unit, the paratroopers, and Brigade 7 of the Tank Corp.
Division 98 was responsible for breaking the back of Hamas in Khan Yunis, its strongest fighting brigade, from December 2023 to March 2024.
Egoz Commander Lt. Col. “A” told the troops right before going in, “We have a great honor to write history in the North just like we did in Gaza. We started with lower-grade operations, but today, we are starting a more substantial invasion in order to return the northern residents to their homes. This is a substantial matter because we have not invaded Lebanon since 2006.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3779386&url=www.jpost.comEgoz Unit commander speaks with the troops prior to entering Lebanon. September 30, 2024. (Credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT).
“I trust you and am very proud of you and know we will continue to write history,” Lt. Col. “A” continued.
IDF soldiers had entered southern Lebanon as part of a ground assault on Monday night while the conflict with Hezbollah continued to escalate, Israel’s military confirmed in the the early hours of Tuesday morning.
“The IDF began limited, localized, and targeted ground raids based on precise intelligence against Hezbollah terrorist targets and infrastructure in southern Lebanon,” Israel’s military said.
It added that the IDF will be carrying out “a methodical plan set out by the General Staff and the Northern Command, which soldiers have trained and prepared for in recent months.”
Arabic media such as Al-Jazeera and MTV Lebanon claimed that IDF tanks had entered multiple villages in southern Lebanon shortly after initial reports of the ground invasion.
“This is what they have informed us that they are currently conducting, which are limited operations targeting Hezbollah infrastructure near the border,” US State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller said to the press on Monday, according to AFP.
The confirmed invasion was the first IDF ground operation in Lebanon since the Second Lebanon War in 2006.
Additionally, the IDF Spokesperson in Arabic, Avichay Adraee, warned residents of Beirut suburbs to evacuate on Monday night.
Shortly after, IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari asked the media not to “share reports about the forces’ activities, due to the security of our forces. Stick to the official reports only and do not spread irresponsible rumors.”
The IDF and the Lebanese army started making moves around 9:00 pm. regarding the imminent Israeli invasion of Lebanon.
The IDF at 8:39 p.m. took additional last-minute concrete measures leading toward an invasion, declaring closed military zones at Metulla, Misgav Am, and Kfar Giladi.
Shortly after, the Lebanese army started withdrawing from several positions in southern Lebanon.
Unconfirmed reports indicated that the IDF opened up with massive tank fire at specific positions in southern Lebanon.
Earlier Monday evening, The Jerusalem Post had reported that the invasion of Lebanon could start the moment that the security cabinet approved it.
The cabinet, which started to meet on the issue at 7:30 p.m., was given multiple choices for what kind of invasion to choose from, though the expected initial focus is still southern Lebanon.
A key focus of the invasion will be to remove the infrastructure that Hezbollah’s Radwan special forces could have tried to use to invade Israel and threaten the northern border towns.
In addition, US President Joe Biden and a wave of US officials have been warning of an imminent Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon to start later Monday.
The clock toward an IDF ground invasion of southern Lebanon started to move ahead much faster than expected even a day or so ago as signs of Hezbollah’s weakness grew in recent days.
Senior IDF sources have been extremely surprised at how ineffective Hezbollah has been at responding to the military’s onslaught against it over the last two weeks and in particular since Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was assassinated this past Friday.
They also said as recently as Sunday night that a significant majority of Hezbollah’s capability to retaliate on the Israeli home front has been harmed and makes it far more reduced than might have been expected.
Although when Israel started to pummel Hezbollah around two weeks ago, it believed it could achieve some element of surprise and degrade the Lebanese terror group somewhat in terms of retaliation, the Home Front Command slapping restrictions on the entire North, including Haifa, was a foreshadowing of concern that the IDF expected Haifa could get hit very hard.
Instead, not a single person in Haifa has been killed by Hezbollah, and the city has barely been touched. Likewise, much of the southern portions of the North that were expected to be hit hard for the first time by Hezbollah’s longer-range rockets have felt minimal impact compared to the dark forecast.
In fact, not a single Israeli has been killed by Hezbollah since Nasrallah was killed three days ago.
Cities like Safed, Acre, Nahariya, Kiryat Shmona, and villages farther North, which have been under short-range rocket fire for extended periods, remain so. Still, that level of threat is nowhere near the strategic level threat that the IDF expected Hezbollah to pose – potentially killing thousands of Israelis and ravaging Tel Aviv and critical infrastructure.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant’s statements to the Tank Corps and other statements to northern town leaders on Monday that he expected to be using ground forces soon against Hezbollah was not just a throwaway statement but a true statement of intent, the Jerusalem Post understands.
The fact that key IDF officials on Monday were confirming that a significant majority of Hezbollah’s capabilities have been harmed, whereas on Friday many top IDF officials were warning that such statements were hubris, seems to indicate how the vacuum of Hezbollah’s response extending over several days has shifted the defense establishment’s view about how deeply Hezbollah is reeling.
There was also no real statement by Hezbollah about the war from Friday until Monday, and even on Monday, it is unclear who will replace Nasrallah or when such an announcement will be made. In other words, it is unclear who is running Hezbollah now and who and whether a central leader will be running it if an IDF invasion starts relatively soon.
IDF officials have been canceling planned interviews for emergency meetings, which signal that “all hands” are being called in for the invasion just as footage of more and more forces moving North has been streaming across social media.
A public leak to the Wall Street Journal early Monday about small special forces targeted Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon to prepare the area for a larger attack, including starting to deal with tunnel ambush issues, also could be preparing the Israeli public and the world for the reality of a fuller ground invasion.
This is especially true because the idea of Israeli forces making small incursions into Lebanon is not actually new and has been a well-kept secret for months, with only foreign media being able to report on it.
Sources have told the Post that a decision is still not final about the shape and size of the ground invasion, though initially, it is expected to be limited to portions of southern Lebanon.
Israel is sensitive to US and Western concerns to not be viewed as occupiers in Lebanon and to only frame the invasion in terms of restoring UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which obligated Hezbollah to remain North of the Litani River.
In addition, a sudden Hezbollah success against Israel, or readiness to negotiate, or sudden increased pressure from the US to not invade could also delay an invasion, but at press time, all of the momentum is moving toward a ground invasion and sooner than expected even a day or so ago.
Biden’s criticism of the invasion on Monday seems to have been viewed by Israel as almost pro forma, given that there was no threat nor was there any presentation of an imminent diplomatic solution that Hezbollah would accept.
Earlier Monday, the IDF also destroyed a warehouse of surface-to-air missile launchers that Hezbollah had placed just 1.5 kilometers from Lebanon’s Beirut International Airport, the military said on Monday.
In their statement, the IDF said that the placement of these missiles was a threat to the international airspace for passenger planes and could hit any aircraft flying into the Lebanese airspace.
In addition, the IDF destroyed a wide range of long-range and medium-range missiles and rockets, which could threaten Haifa, central Israel, and the Tel Aviv Corridor.
Further, the IDF eliminated the Hezbollah terrorist Eid Hassan, the commander of Hezbollah’s medium-range rocket array, the military said on Monday.
Hassan had served as Hezbollah’s commander of the surface-to-surface rocket unit.
His killing goes along with the targeted killings of several other top rocket and drone Hezbollah commanders on Monday and in recent days.
This follows earlier reports that Israel notified the US that it intends to launch a limited ground operation into Lebanon that could begin within hours, a US official confirmed to CBS on Monday. Other news sources have reported that an Israeli incursion could come within the coming days.
Israeli-Hezbollah tensions boil over into open war
The report of an IDF invasion follows an ongoing pattern of escalation between Hezbollah and the IDF since the start of the Israel-Hamas War. On Friday, the IDF carried out an airstrike on Hezbollah’s central headquarters, killing former secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah.
Previous IDF strikes have killed numerous senior Hezbollah terrorists in recent weeks, including a strike on Beirut that killed at least 16 high-ranking Hezbollah members, including Hezbollah’s Operations Division chief Ibrahim Aliq.
This also follows a series of widespread incidents throughout Lebanon and Syria where several communications devices owned by members of Hezbollah, such as pagers and radios, mysteriously exploded, killing several and wounding thousands. Hezbollah and foreign reports accused Israel of being behind the incidents.
The Iran-backed terrorist group has also been firing numerous rockets, drones, and missiles at the Jewish state since the start of the Israel-Hamas War, with the frequent barrages forcing tens of thousands of Israelis to flee from their homes in the North.
ISRAEL/IRAQ/USA
US Forces At Baghdad Airport Come Under Rocket Attack
Monday, Sep 30, 2024 – 05:59 PM
Update(1808ET): It appears the pro-Iranian Iraqi paramilitary factions are going on the offensive in response to the Friday assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
“At least two Katyusha rockets were fired at a military base hosting U.S. forces near Baghdad International Airport, two Iraqi military officials told Reuters early on Tuesday.”
Air defenses at the base have reportedly intercepted the rockets. The location has come under attack several times before. This weekend saw large protests outside of the US Embassy in Baghdad’s Green Zone and clashes with local police, as largely Shia demonstrators tried to access the embassy compound.
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/TUESDAY AFTERNOON
Fierce’ Hezbollah Resistance On Ground As Israel Says Lebanon Offensive To Last ‘Weeks’
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 11:25 AM
Israel’s military (IDF) on Tuesday announced it is calling up four additional reserves brigades to deploy to the northern front after the night prior a ground assault into Lebanon, dubbed Operation Northern Arrows, began.
So far there’s little that can be confirmed on the ground amid the fog of war. Hezbollah on Tuesday is even denying that Israeli forces have actually crossed into southern Lebanon after the IDF declared “limited” raids were happening. Heavy artillery and Israeli airstrikes are presumably paving the battlespace for a deeper and bigger infantry incursion.
What is confirmed is that the regular Lebanese Army has withdrawn some five kilometers from the border and that a UN peacekeeping force has been notified of the offensive and UN troops are “in position”. Israel is characterizing its operations so far as “localized raids”.
At least 25 Lebanese villages have been told to evacuate by Israel’s military. Their inhabitants have been ‘ordered’ to make it north of the Awali River. Lebanese Christian villages have been targeted in some cases, and their inhabitants have also been forced out.
“Local residents have told Reuters that at least 600 people sought refuge in a monastery on the Israel-Lebanon border after the Israeli army warned them to flee their Christian village of Ain Ebl,” writes Al Jazeera. “The villagers went to the monastery in the town of Rmeish, which did not receive an Israeli warning, and were waiting for an army convoy to escort them to Beirut, the residents told the news agency.”
A well-known Greek Orthodox priest of these southern villages, who oversaw a church in in Ibl al-Saqi, was critically wounded in an Israeli airstrike on Monday. There are conflicting reports, but some regional sources say that Fr. Gregorius Saloum succumbed to his injuries. Lebanon is some 40% Christian, with rest of the population being majority Shia, and a sizable Sunni minority as well, chiefly concentrated in and around Tripoli in the north.
On Tuesday Israel has reported that multiple projectiles fired from Lebanon have fallen in central Israel, with some drones reaching as far as off the coast of Tel Aviv. It is as yet unclear the degree to which Hezbollah’s missiles are actually reaching targets on the ground in central Israel.
The Times of Israel has confirmed that “A rocket fired from Lebanon on Tuesday hit a major highway outside of Tel Aviv, injuring at least two people, authorities said, placing new restrictions on gatherings as the military geared up for fighting with the Hezbollah terror group to escalate after launching a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon overnight.” This has sent hundreds of thousands more Israelis into bomb shelters.
The IDF has meanwhile publicized footage of its elite paratrooper 98th Division engaged in fighting in south Lebanon, with the support of the 7th Armored Brigade…
Reports from Arab sources and the Lebanese side have suggested IDF troops have been met with fierce resistance. According to one account featured in Al Jazeera:
Ali Rizk, a security and political affairs analyst based in Beirut, says Israeli troops attempted to “overwhelm” Hezbollah fighters in southern Lebanon late last night but were repelled and forced to withdraw.
“What the Israeli side might be doing is a propaganda war when they speak about successfully entering Lebanese territory. So this might be part of an Israeli psychological war, which wouldn’t be the first time they resort to such tactics,” Rizk told Al Jazeera.
“We’ll have to see how the ground invasion unfolds. But – according to a source with ties to Hezbollah – the Israelis did meet fierce resistance in the late hours of last night. It does appear this is not going to be an easy battle for Israel, even if Hezbollah has lost its leader and senior military commanders. That still leaves Hezbollah to be a formidable foe to inflict heavy costs on the Israelis in their ground invasion.”
Casualties on either side are expected to be hidden from the public during these opening days of the ground war. Israeli military sources have said the ground assault is expected to take at least a few weeks.
X.com/WarMonitors/status/1841027332594602071
Israel has meanwhile continued its heavy bombardment of alleged Hezbollah strongholds in the south Beirut suburbs, where Hassan Nasrallah and some of his top officers died in massive airstrikes by US-supplied “bunker buster” bombs last Friday.
Massive overnight strikes occurred in Beirut’s southern suburbs:
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/TEL AVIV/THIS MORNING
Two wounded by shrapnel after rocket sirens sound in Tel Aviv, across central Israel
The IDF said the alerts had been triggered due to projectiles that had been fired at Israel from Lebanon, with some of them being intercepted.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 1, 2024 11:05Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 12:30
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3779582&url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-822701The site of a projectile crash in central Israel. October 1, 2024. (Credit: MDA Operational Unit)
One man in his 50s and another in his 30s were wounded following sirens that sounded in central Israel on Tuesday, Magen David Adom (MDA) said.
The man in his 50s sustained moderate wounds from shrapnel, according to the MDA. The man in his 30s reportedly sustained light wounds.
The MDA added that its paramedics provided medical care and transferred the two men, a bus driver and a private vehicle driver, to the Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Campus in Petah Tikva.
Paramedics also reportedly provided treatment on-site to several individuals suffering from anxiety.
MDA paramedics Yissachar Weiss and Matan Gida recounted what they saw upon arrival at the scene.
https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3779588&url=www.jpost.comThe site of a projectile crash in central Israel. October 1, 2024. (Credit: MDA Operational Unit)
“We arrived at the scene and saw signs of an explosion on the road, with a bus standing nearby on the side of the road, its windows shattered due to shrapnel.
“The 54-year-old bus driver was fully conscious and had shrapnel wounds to his head and chest, likely from shrapnel that entered through the bus door. While performing rescue operations, we provided medical treatment to the driver, and after he was extricated, we transported him in an MDA mobile intensive care unit to the hospital in stable condition,” they said.
Head of United Hatzalah’s Elad branch, Moshe Saadon, said at the scene. “We provided initial medical aid to a man, approximately 50 years old, who sustained a head injury due to shrapnel.
“At this stage, his condition is defined as moderate and stable. Fire department teams are operating at the scene due to the nature of the incident,” he further noted.
Police said it was operating at several scenes in which debris impacts had been reported in the Sharon area, among which was the Ramat Hasharon area.
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Following the sirens, the IDF said the alerts had been triggered due to projectiles that had been fired at Israel from Lebanon, with some of them being intercepted.
Multiple rocket sirens sounded in Tel Aviv and across central Israel starting at 11:03 a.m. local time on Tuesday.
Sirens blared in Ra’anana, Petah Tikva, and Herzliya, among other localities.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL/ HEZBOLLAH/
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
AL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (8276x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(10,819C ONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (8276x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,081,900OZ OR 33.651 ONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (8276 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT (10,819 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (8276x 100 oz which equals 1,081,900oz (33.651 TONNES)
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 33.651 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
IDF strike of Palestinian camp near Lebanon’s Sidon targets Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade commander
By Reuters
An Israeli strike in Lebanon early on Tuesday targeted Mounir Maqdah, commander of the Lebanese branch of the Palestinian Fatah movement’s military wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade, according to two Palestinian security officials.
Maqdah’s fate was unknown.
The strike hit a building in the crowded Ain El-Hilweh Palestinian refugee camp near the southern city of Sidon, the sources said.
It marked the first strike on the camp, the largest of several Palestinian camps in Lebanon, since cross-border hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel broke out nearly a year ago.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/USA
US voices support for Israel destroying Hezbollah sites along border, appearing to back IDF raids into Lebanon
By Jacob Magid FollowToday, 5:25 am
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, right, and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, left, listen to the playing of the Israeli National Anthem during an arrival ceremony at the Pentagon in Washington, June 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
The Biden administration appears to express its support for the raids that the IDF began conducting late Monday night into Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites along the border.
“We agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says in the Pentagon’s readout of his call with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.
During the Monday call, the pair discussed Israel’s latest military operations, and Austin “made it clear that the United States supports Israel’s right to defend itself.”
While seeming to voice support for the IDF operation, Austin stressed that the incursion was not an end in of itself.
“I reaffirmed that a diplomatic resolution is required to ensure that civilians can return safely to their homes on both sides of the border,” the US readout says.
Austin also “made clear that the United States is well-postured to defend US personnel, partners, and allies in the face of threats from Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations and determined to prevent any actor from exploiting tensions or expanding the conflict,” the readout continues. “I reiterated the serious consequences for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel.”
More from today’s Liveblog:
- IDF says rocket sirens in Metula were false alarm
- Rocket sirens triggered in northern border town, Upper Galilee
- US forces accounted for after reported rocket attack in Baghdad, official says
end
JAFFA (TEL AVIV)
Terror shooting in Jaffa in mass-casualty attack: Eight killed in terror shooting in Jaffa, many more wounded
The shooting, which the MDA designated a mass-casualty incident, occurred near a light rail station in the central Israeli city.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 1, 2024 19:10Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 19:30
At least 8 Israelis were killed and a dog were wounded in a shooting terror attack in Jaffa, in central Israel, on Tuesday evening, Magen David Adom reported.
At least four people are reported critically wounded. Magen David Adom announced that the incident involved multiple causalities.
The shooting occurred near a light rail station in the central Israeli city. Two terrorists who were observed exiting the train were shot dead by security forces.
Police suspect at least one more terrorist is still present in the area
Videos from the scenes show several bodies lying on the ground.
ISRAEL/SYRIA
Three civilians killed in Israeli airstrike on Damascus, state media says
Syrian state television earlier said that one of its presenters was killed in an Israeli strike on Damascus.
By REUTERSOCTOBER 1, 2024 02:28Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 04:16
Three civilians were killed and nine others injured in an Israeli airstrike on the Syrian capital Damascus, Syrian state media said early on Tuesday citing a military source.
Syrian state television earlier said that one of its presenters was killed in an Israeli strike on Damascus. It was unclear whether the presenter was among the three civilians mentioned by state media.
The Israeli air attack also caused significant damage to private property, state media added.
Syrian air defenses intercepted “hostile targets” over the vicinity of Damascus three times in a row in one night, following explosions that were heard in the capital, state media said earlier on Tuesday.
When asked about the reported attack, the Israeli military said it does not comment on foreign media reports.
Israel targets Iran-backed terrorists
Israel has been carrying out strikes against Iran-linked targets in Syria for years but has ramped up such raids since last year’s Oct. 7 attack by Palestinian terrorist group Hamas on Israeli territory.
END
IRAN/ISRAEL
War Begins: Iranian Ballistic Missiles Rain Down On Israel
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 12:41 PM
Update(1241ET): Bombs away… Israel’s military in a breaking news wire says rockets have been fired from Iran at Israel. The IDF says it has engaged its Arrow-2 and Arrow-3 anti-air defense missiles.
The White House says it has convened an emergency meeting with VP Harris and national security teams. Warning alarms from Israel’s home front command are currently sounding in Jerusalem and elsewhere. Israel getting pounded:
Skies over Tel Aviv currently (unconfirmed):
Purported video of new launch:
Iranian state media has confirmed that an initial salvo has been sent, publishing video of missiles exiting Iranian airspace:
END
Andre Nuta 
on X: “@charliekirk11 BALLISTIC MISSLES ARE RAINING DOWN ALL OVER ISRAEL IN AN ATTACK BY IRAN! ISRAEL IS TRYING TO INTERCEPT AS MANY AS POSSIBLE. THE MISSLES ARE TARGETING THE ENTIRE COUNTRY INCLUDING CIVILIAN TARGETS. PRAYRES FOR THE PEOPLE OF ISRAEL.
https://t.co/4lCBr4N36r” / X
o |
ISRAEL/IRAN
Iran launches massive aerial attack on Israel, 400 missiles sent
IDF Spokesperson Daniel Hagari said the Israeli military was ready and willing to respond to any and all attacks from Iran.
By TOVAH LAZAROFF, YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 1, 2024 16:53Updated: OCTOBER 1, 2024 20:0
Some 400 rockets were launched onto Israel on Tuesday night by Iran, the Jerusalem Post understands, following rocket sirens across the country.
Magen David Adom’s CEO Eli Bin announced that there was a direct hit to a building in north Tel Aviv, on George Weiss street.
Multiple other falls were recorded in Tel Aviv, as well as in Dimona, Nabatim, Hora, Hod Hasharon, Beer Sheva and Rishon Lezion.
Video footage from KAN showed falling fragments of interceptors and missiles in the Dead Sea.
Ben Gurion announced that all landings and takeoffs have been halted.
Planes that were in the air for landing made a U-turn.
“The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel,” the official stated.
“We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack,” the US official said.
“A direct military attack from Iran against Israel,” the official stressed, “will carry severe consequences for Iran.”
Iran last attacked Israel in April, but its missiles were thwarted by the unified actions of five armies: Israel, the US, France, Jordan, and the United Kingdom.
It’s presumed that this attack would be larger than the 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and dozens of cruise missiles which Iran launched on Israel in April.”
Three Israeli officials said that the attack would involve unmanned drones and missiles fired toward three military air bases and an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv, The New York Times reported.
The second direct military showdown between Israel and Iran comes as the IDF has, in the last weeks, bombarded Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, significantly weakening the Iranian proxy group. This has included the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah. Iran had warned of repercussions for those attacks.
Early Tuesday evening, the IDF Home Front took the nearly unprecedented step of warning the whole Tel Aviv region to head to bomb shelters even before rocket sirens went off.
In light of the Israeli and US confirmations that Iran plans to attack Israel imminently, it appeared that the attack by Tehran had already started.
Shortly after, the IDF said it had shot down a long-range rocket launched by Hezbollah against the Tel Aviv area. However, in light of the serious and imminent concerns about Iran, the IDF said that Tel Aviv residents should stay near their bomb shelters.
Hagari reaffirms IDF’s high preparedness
IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari reaffirmed the IDF’s high state of preparedness and that it was ready and willing to respond to any and all attacks from Iran.
“Following developments in Iran, we are in [a state of] high preparedness. IDF is prepared and ready both on the offensive and defensive front. There will be consequences if Iran attacks Israel. Our US partners in CENTCOM are ready alongside us. We will know how to handle [any attack].”
The US Embassy has warned its staff and their families to shelter in place. Israel’s intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv was evacuated in advance of an attack.
The US has an aircraft carrier deployed in the region to help keep tensions from escalating as well as to suppress an Iranian response.
Reuters contributed to this report.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
This is a foolish war and witnessing many young soldiers dying on the field
(Heflin/Remix)
Ukraine’s Army Is In Bad Shape, Over Half Of Recruits Survive Just For A Few Days
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Liz Heflin via Remix News,
The Ukrainian army is suffering from a steady decline in the capabilities of its front-line units, according to Polish news outlet Do Rzeczy, citing a report in the London Financial Times that between 50 and 70 percent of recruits survive only a few days on the frontlines.
Soldiers have low motivation and are prone to panic, while losses among trained and experienced units have led to a dependence on conscript units with very limited operational capabilities.
Training standards were reportedly so poor that not all of them knew how to hold a weapon. Furthermore, the depletion of the number of men considered fit to fight means that the average age of recruits now stands at 45.
The report follows a statement by Ukrainian Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, who was appointed in early February. Syrsky said that recruits were consistently lacking the necessary training for frontline operations. Lamenting the sheer technological superiority of Russian forces, he said that personnel had received just two months of training, although other sources indicated that the training time was much shorter.
Meanwhile, Military Watch Magazine has said that poor training standards in frontline units have repeatedly emerged over the past two years, and back in mid-2023, the Wall Street Journal even reported that the Ukrainian army was recruiting poor men from the countryside, equipping them with Soviet-era rifles and uniforms, and then sending them to the front after just two nights at a base.
When some of the conscripts tried to sign a waiver, citing a lack of proper training, a Ukrainian sergeant replied, “Bakhmut will teach you,” referring to the frontline city that was then the epicenter of the fighting.
One of the conscripts recalled protesting that he had never held a gun before. The Wall Street Journal had written that such poorly trained and equipped men were necessary, as Western-trained and better-equipped brigades would be needed for the upcoming offensive.
Since the beginning of June 2023, multiple offensives have resulted in extensive losses and further increased Kyiv’s reliance on conscripts.
In the meantime, Ukraine has even reportedly resorted to recruiting convicts.
A senior conscript officer in Ukraine’s Poltava region, Lieutenant Colonel Vitaly Berezhnyon, revealed on September 15, 2023, that the units had suffered huge losses.
“Out of 100 people who joined the units last fall, 10-20 remained, the rest are dead, wounded or disabled,” he said.
This indicates a loss rate of 80-90 percent in conscript units over the past year. Former Ukrainian ambassador to the U.K. and former Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko in April pointed to catastrophic personnel losses.
“From the beginning, our policy was not to discuss losses. When the war is over, we will admit it. I think it will be a terrible number,” he noted.
end
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXZANDER
Dr. Ana Mihalcea recent work highlighted by LIONESS of JUDAH Ministry reveals the stunning malevolence of the COVID mRNA gene-based vaccines & shows deliberate efforts to damage humanity! The mRNA
vaccine is “So Technologically Sophisticated, So Indescribably Complex, And So Utterly Evil That It Beggars Believability”; By Kathleen Gotto, Mihalcea & Gotto delivers a warning to humanity
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 1 |
‘By Kathleen Gotto – All News Pipeline
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Was the 1966 Movie, Fantastic Voyage, a Prescient Warning to Humanity?
In a recent interview on SGTreport.com, Dr. Ana Mihalcea was asked about her findings of nanotechnology under darkfield microscopy, using several different levels of magnification. She didn’t just explain what she saw, she showed videos she took of nanorobots moving around and assembling structures. (Video interview embedded at the end of this article)
Unlike the 1966 movie, Fantastic Voyage, which had a beneficial mission to save a man by entering his bloodstream in a micro-sized submarine and performing life-saving actions, today’s COVID-19 bioweapon injection into the bloodstream has no beneficial function. The proof of that lies in the documented records of millions of deaths and injuries of those who took the COVID-19 shot, as well as untold more people now suffering from post-jab turbo cancers and other debilitating and life-changing side effects.
An interesting visual from the Fantastic Voyage movie trailer shows bubble-like formations in the blood, similar to what Dr. Mihalcea and other scientists have videotaped in the blood of the jabbed and even the transfected, unjabbed. (Could there possibly be a connection to that 1966 movie and today’s invasion of the blood or is that just a strange coincidence?)
The nanotechnology Dr. Mihalcea highlights in her referenced videos is so technologically sophisticated, so indescribably complex, and so utterly evil that it beggars believability. However, Dr. Milhacea delivers the goods with her darkfield microscope. Seeing is believing and leaves no doubt that the nanotechnology found in the COVID-19 Pfizer and BioNTech vials (and most likely in the others), clearly shows nanorobots busily building structures in the bodies of both the injected and the transfected. The nanotech is so almost otherworldly, that it can easily transfer from the COVID-19 “vaccinated” to the unvaccinated without any physical contact.
Dr. Milhacea stated that within the past several months, 100 percent of her unvaccinated patients presented with nanotechnology in their blood samples. It is harder to believe the COVID-19 hoax was not a coordinated democide operation, writ large, against countless millions of unsuspecting people in all nations, than to believe that that is exactly what it is.
Unfortunately, too many people remain unconvinced of the level of depravity that was foisted upon the world in December 2019. The indescribably evil of this mass culling of humanity, this global depopulation operation, has demonic roots. This spiritual aspect has been written about many times by many people (including this author) so it will not be addressed in depth here.
The purpose here is to highlight the findings from Dr. Mihalcea’s investigations and experiments on the COVID-19 Pfizer and BioNTech vials, and her treatment of the infected blood with nicotine solution, EDTA, and liposomal Vitamin C. The impact of EDTA and Vitamin C was incredible. The apparent synergistic effect of these two substances on the nanorobots’ work was instantaneous, and shut their construction sites down immediately. Wow! Nicotine did not have quite the same effect on the nanorobots, but Dr.Mihalcea insisted it still did have a role to play in halting the programmed work of the COVID-19 nanotechnology in the blood.
Scientific inquiry and research are revealing substantial results with both lightfield and darkfield microscopy clearly showing what is going on with contaminated COVID-19 blood. As Dr. Mihalcea clearly showed in her videos, the wire-looking objects, squares, circles, 3-D cubes, et al, appear to be constructing some sort of operating system. Were these involved in those white, rubbery clots pulled out of cadavers? Those clots were not of the bodies, but pulled out from the bodies. Like parasites, did they grow too quickly and too big and thus overcame the body’s defenses and killed its host?
There are so many questions needing answers. We now know with certainty that the COVID-19 jab delivers a foreign and nefarious invasion of multi-faceted nanotechnology into the blood. Were those white cadaver clots a Beta test to see how well the nanotech was working? Are the beasts behind this coup of the human body perfecting their possession of man’s body and soul? Looking at Dr. Mihalcea’s many videos is like looking at an alien invasion inside the body. Well, if that isn’t what it is, a term has yet to be invented for it.
We need to publicly and vociferously ask questions on this kill operation and demand answers. Is all humanity under assault for a diabolical mission intent on enslaving mankind? Why else would deadly, programmable nanotechnology be injected into humans if not to use people for the benefit of evil and demonically-inspired anti-humans?
Where did this sophisticated technology come from? DARPA? Evil scientists? Alien entities? Wherever the technology originated, it needed anti-human, Luciferian, 666-inspired individuals willing and able to foist this Machiavellian scheme onto the world. This is war. Thank God, it is ultimately His war! Our part is to resist.
But there is at least some good news from the war front. Dr. Mihalcea had discussed her use of EDTA and Vitamin C on her patients many times in the past, but her recent microscopy work using these two substances unmistakenly shows their impact on the movement and construction work of the nanorobots in the blood. This scenario is so sci-fi, yet here it is and it needs to be dealt a death blow before it goes any further. Hopefully, the EDTA and Vitamin C combo will be just the first of many other treatments that even now may be experimented with in the lab of courageous and determined scientists who, come hell or high water, will not stand idly by while humanity is being wiped out.
But apparently we have attorneys, judges, and law enforcers who do not care if humanity survives or not. When will First-Degree Murder and RICO charges be brought and successfully litigated against all those behind this kill operation? Lawsuits seeking a halt against the COVID-19 mandates have been summarily dismissed, thus chilling further lawsuits. Where are the true, brave and honest judges in this land who have not abrogated their duty to adjudicate?
In the face of the continual stonewalling of magistrates on all levels, we thank God for the work that Dr. Mihalcea has done and continues to do. There are other scientists and medical experts who have picked up the gauntlet against this global kill operation. One such research scientist is Dr. Jane Ruby. She, too, has highlighted nanorobots in the blood, as well as now the dangers of ACAM2000, the monkeypox murder shot masquerading as, once again, a vaccine . . . but one that FDA admits can kill you. Why would that be? Because it contains live smallpox. Let that sink in! And why was smallpox chosen? Take a look. Makes a horrendous statement doesn’t it?
So, apparently the COVID-19 illness and the “vaccine” were not sufficient to cull the herd down to a manageable level, so the dark forces (globalists, Luciferians, eugenicists, wanna-be gods) are now trying to scare the public into getting a monkeypox shot. If there are still people woefully and willfully ignorant of this global democide effort after more than four years, probably no warning would be sufficient to open their eyes. Perhaps smallpox pustules popping out all over their body would do it!
–Kathleen Gotto’
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Helene is Katrina 2.0!: Bush Jr. failed with Katrina hurricane, did not grasp seriousness & early enough, NOW Helene proving to be Harris-Biden’s Katrina; Harris has been AWOL, absent! Rush help NOW!
Look at Asheville North Carolina & you understand how devastated NC is today due to Helene & why they need help now, maybe more than other badly hit states, triage NC needs urgency, bodies in trees
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 1 |
North Carolina today post Helene:
see prior substack and urgency:
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
URGENT! Biden takes sun, Kamala in la la land while bodies stack up all over North Carolina! Worse than Bush-Katrina & Superdome! We need a Trump-like leader & my assessment says URGENT rescue needed
NOW! Urgent, people are dying, North Caroline needs all hands-on deck now due to Hurricane Helene, help URGENT in Black Mountain, Morgan Hill, Asheville,
END
Illegals, Immigrants Are Taking Over Pennsylvania Now! Be warned, crime is escalating, Pennsylvania is being taken over like how New York has been that is now a shithole! Everyone Is Freaking Out.
crime ridden New York, 80% of all crime now by illegals, and NYC is now the rape capital of entire USA! be warned Pennsylvania, it is here and coming, rapes, murders of your wives & daughters
She said America needs a leader in pants, not a panty? She said that? What did she mean? hhhmmmm…I do not agree with that statement…yet it is interesting that this lady would say this and how fired up they are that the illegals are taking over! They fear the crime that is coming, how the illegals walking around with new clothes, new phones, a brand-new car, cash money, can open businesses yet locals are starving…cannot get grants by illegals can? where is the money coming from?
SLAY NEWS
| Scientists Expose Deadly ‘Hot’ Batches of Covid ‘Vaccines’An alarming new study has revealed that certain batches of Covid mRNA “vaccines” distributed among the American people had a far higher risk of causing adverse events and sudden deaths.READ MORE |
| Large-Scale Democrat Voter Fraud Operation Uncovered in MichiganA disturbing large-scale voter fraud operation that seeks to boost mail-in ballot votes for Democrats has been uncovered in Michigan.READ MORE |
| Leftist Author Fran Lebowitz Calls on Biden to ‘Dissolve’ Supreme Court before Leaving OfficeRadical leftist author Fran Lebowitz is calling on lame-duck President Joe Biden to abuse his executive powers to “dissolve” the United States Supreme Court.READ MORE |
| Trump Accuses Pelosi of Insider Trading after Sale of Visa Stock: ‘You Think It Was Luck?’President Donald Trump has accused Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) of insider trading after her husband made a suspiciously timed huge sale of Visa stock.READ MORE |
| The Atlantic Warns Democrats: Hiding Tim Walz from Media Is a ‘Lost Opportunity’ as Election NearsAs the November elections draw near, Democrat vice presidential nominee Tim Walz’s absence from the national media spotlight has sparked debate about the party’s campaign strategies.READ MORE |
| Trump Vows to ‘Criminally Prosecute’ Google over ‘Blatant Interference of Elections’President Donald Trump has vowed to “criminally prosecute” Google if he’s elected in November over the Big Tech giant’s search engine bias.READ MORE |
| Tulsi Gabbard Slams Kamala Harris over ‘Shameless’ Campaign Trip to Southern BorderDemocrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris paid a visit to Arizona on Friday to tout what she claimed were her bona fides on the key election issue of immigration.READ MORE |
| John Kerry Vows Democrats Will ‘Change’ First Amendment to ‘Hammer Disinformation Out of Existence’Unelected globalist John Kerry has warned that the Democrats “need… to win” so his party can “change” the First Amendment to eliminate so-called “disinformation.”READ MORE |
| NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson Hospitalized with Second-Degree Burns, in ‘Good Spirits’North Carolina’s Republican Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson has been hospitalized with second-degree burns, according to reports.READ MORE |
| VIEW MORE |
EVOL
| LATEST NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICTS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1092 DOWN 0.0054
USA/ YEN 143.72 UP .011 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE TRYING TO RE ESTABLISH
GBP/USA 1.3315 DOWN .0062
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3527 UP 0002 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 2 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
Hang Seng CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.65%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED
/SHANGHAI CLOSED U
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.17%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 732.42POINTS OR 1.93%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2648.65
silver:$31.33
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 100.84 UP 33 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.598% DOWN 12 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.849% DOWN 1 AND 9/ 100 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.811 DOWN 11 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.351 DOWN 11 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.028 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.1174 DOWN .0062 OR 62 basis points
USA/Japan: 143.31 DOWN 0.463 OR YEN IS UP 46 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 3.9660 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP .0022 OR 22 BASIS pts to 1.3502
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0185 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.0288)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.20 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.849
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 9 in basis points from MONDAY at 3.721% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.048 DOWN 9 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.608 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2666.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.76
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 39.70 PTS OR 0.48%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 111.79 OR 0.55%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 43.71 PTS OR 0.77%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 203.80 OR 1.76%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 354,18 OR 1.04%
WTI Oil price 68.12 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 71.38 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 94.48 ROUBLE DOWN 1 AND 50/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.028 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 3.9660 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 2.946 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.747 UP2
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.1076 DOWN 0.0060 OR 60 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3288 DOWN 0.0089 OR 89basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 3.9765 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.849
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 143.70 DOWN 0.028UP 2 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3483 DOWN 0.0043 CDN dollar UP 43 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.24
Brent OIL: 73.73
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 3.740
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 6 BASIS PTS to 4.077%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 4 PTS AT 3.615
CDN 10 YR RATE 2.9765 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.7364 UP3 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 100.90 UP 35 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.22 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 95.85 DOWN 2 AND 86/100 roubles
GOLD 2,663..20 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.45 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 118,61 PTS OR 0.42%
NASDAQ DOWN 287,38 PTS OR 1,43%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19,10UP 2,37 PTS OR 1.41%
GLD: $245.61 UP 2,37OR 2,55%
SLV/ $28,58 UP 0.17 OR 0.60%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:
Strikes (Missiles & Dockworkers) Spark Surge In Oil, Gold, & Bonds; Big-Tech & Bitcoin Battered
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Today’s mixed macro picture (construction spending down, National Manufacturing surveys and Dallas Fed in contraction offset by surge in JOLTS) was overwhelmed by Strikes (from Iranian missiles and American longshoremen).
The widespread union strike deadline passed and bond markets shifted lower in yield on that news overnight. Then as Iranian missiles rained down on Israel, investors poured into safe-havens (bonds, gold) and dumped stocks as oil prices re-discovered geopolitical risk premium.
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were all bid today, but are mixed on the week with the short-end significantly underperforming…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold was also bid as safe-haven (erasing all of yesterday’s losses)…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar strengthened significantly on the day (more safe haven flows perhaps)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices surged higher on the missile launches with WTI reaching almost $72 before pulling back a little.
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks lurched lower on the Iran-Israel headlines – led by Small Caps and Mega-Cap Tech – but once Europe closed, the algos started trying to BTFD. The momentum did ignite but failed to get any of the majors green before some late-day profit-taking from 0-DTEs dragged everything down again…
VIX and VVIX both surged higher today…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continued to serve its role as an anti-geopolitical risk asset – dumping every time a MidEast headline hits the Bloomberg terminal (which makes little to no sense to us… but hey we don’t have PhDs)…
Source: Bloomberg
It seems BTC and Big-Tech are joined at the hip again for now…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, as Bloomberg reports, while investors are focused on policy cues (and liquidity infusions), earnings momentum has turned negative and could be a drag on stocks if it doesn’t improve with the upcoming earnings season.
Source: Bloomberg
Buy hey, for now liquidity is all that matters…
Source: Bloomberg
…until it doesn’t!
And there’s some liquidity stress in the banks’ plumbing…
Source: Bloomberg
Let’s just hope it’s quarter-end window-dressing (but this is one to keep an eye on).
Is that why USA Sovereign risk is also spiking…
Source: Bloomberg
Probably nothing..
END
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
US Manufacturing Surveys Signal Stagnation, Employment Weak
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 10:07 AM
According to S&P Global’s PMI survey, the US manufacturing sector moved deeper into contraction territory at the end of the third quarter of the year (dropping from 48.0 to 47.0 – the third straight monthly contraction in the soft data survey.
ISM’s version of the Manufacturing PMI survey also showed contraction (47.2 – worse than expected) for the sixth straight month…
Source: Bloomberg
New Orders remain in contraction for the sixth straight month, Employment tumbled back near post-COVID-lockdown lows, but Prices Paid softened significantly…
Source: Bloomberg
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence:
“The September PMI survey brings a whole slew of disappointing economic indicators regarding the health of the US economy. Factories reported the largest monthly drop in production for 15 months in response to a slump in new orders, in turn driving further reductions in employment and input buying as producers scaled back operating capacity.
“However, companies are sensing that at least part of the drop in demand is likely to be temporary, as spending, investment and inventory building have been paused in many cases amid the uncertainty caused by the Presidential Election. The prospect of lower interest rates has meanwhile raised confidence in the longerterm outlook, with firms anticipating that demand will be rekindled by lower borrowing costs if the political environment improves. Hence, despite the deterioration in the current business situation, business expectations about the year ahead have in fact improved.
“While the current weak demand environment has helped keep cost pressures low in the manufacturing sector, the potential for geopolitical events to drive energy prices higher alongside possible spikes in shipping prices poses upside risks to the inflation picture.”
So, to summarize – slower growth/contraction and rising output prices – that kind of stagflationary signal is not exactly screaming “50bps rate cut!!”
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
This will be devastating as outlined to you these past few days
(zerohedge)
It Begins: US Port Strikes Erupt, First Shutdown In 50 Years Sparks Fears Of Supply Chain Crisis
Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 07:20 AM
More than 45,000 International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) members from over three dozen facilities across 14 Gulf and East Coast ports went on strike early Tuesday, marking the largest labor action at US ports in nearly 50 years. The labor action, driven by disputes over automation and wages in a new multi-year labor contract, threatens to disrupt supply chains nationwide. If the strike persists for more than a week, retailers could face shortages of certain goods (read: here), potentially sparking another wave of inflation.
ILA’s strike hit 36 ports across the Gulf and up and down the East Coast—this is the union’s first labor action since 1977. Workers walked off the job at the Port of Philadelphia a few short minutes after midnight when ILA and the US Maritime Alliance (USMX)—a coalition of port operators and carriers—failed to agree on a new labor contract offer that would have boosted wages by 50% over six years and pledged to place limitations on port automation. The union has demanded a 77% pay bump.
On Tuesday, ILA said USMX’s latest offer was rejected because it “fell far short of what ILA rank-and-file members are demanding in wages and protections against automation.” Both sides have been locked in talks since June.
“We are prepared to fight as long as necessary, to stay out on strike for whatever period of time it takes, to get the wages and protections against automation our ILA members deserve,” union boss Harold Daggett said in a statement, quoted by AP News, adding, “They must now meet our demands for this strike to end.”
Supply chain management company Flexport founder and CEO Ryan Petersen noted on X that the Teamsters Union released a statement in solidarity with ILA, informing the Biden administration to “stay the f**k out of this fight”…
Ahead of the strike, a video posted on X, supposedly of ILA boss Daggett, warned: “I will cripple you, and you have no idea what that means. Nobody does,” referring to the power the union has over the US economy.
“This video is wild If this video is real, I think we need to give the longshoreman exactly what they want immediately… … then we need to execute on a plan to automate as much of the ports as possible so they can’t destroy civilization — as he’s threatening to do!,” All-In’ podcast host Jason Calacanis wrote on X while commenting on the video.
Goldman analysts explained last week that a walkout by ILA members would jeopardize $5 billion in daily international trade coming into the Gulf and East Coast ports, while JPMorgan noted the hit could be between $3.8 billion and $4.5 billion a day.
On Monday morning, Goldman analysts led by Brooke Roach provided clients with an overview of the major retailers that would be impacted the most by a port shutdown. In particular, the analysts found that about half of Dollar Tree’s products had passed through these ports, indicating that a prolonged strike could spark shortages of certain goods on store shelves.
Also on Monday, Suzanne Clark, CEO of the US Chamber of Commerce, wrote in a letter to the Biden administration: “It would be unconscionable to allow a contract dispute to inflict such a shock to our economy,” adding, “Taft-Hartley would provide time for both parties in negotiation to reach a deal on a new labor contract.”
end
Biden and Harris awol…….yet Trump visits victims
(zerohedge)
Biden And Harris Called Out Over Botched Hurricane Response As Trump Visits Victims
Monday, Sep 30, 2024 – 04:33 PM
When natural disasters strike in the United States, the president and VP have historically responded immediately – offering support, condolences, and generally letting the public know that the situation is – or will soon be – under control.
After making landfall Thursday night in Florida’s Big Bend region, Hurricane Helene proceeded to tear through several states – resulting in 116 deaths and causing devastating floods in Western North Carolina.
Yet, it took three days for the White House to get their act together.
And now this…
On Sunday, Vice President Kamala Harris posted a photo on Air Force Two – in which she appears with blank pieces of paper and unplugged headphones (maybe she was using her earrings?) to ‘respond’ to the disaster.
And on Monday, President Biden read a teleprompter response to the disaster, claiming that he’ll visit the affected areas on Wednesday.
Trump, meanwhile, is in Georgia to help support victims and their families…
“We are now heading to Valdosta, Georgia, in order to pay my respects and bring lots of relief material, including fuel, equipment, water, and other things, to the State,” Trump posted to X, adding “I was also going to stop into North Carolina, which has really been hit hard. I have a lot of supplies ready for them, but access and communication is now restricted, and we want to make sure that Local Emergency Management is able to focus on helping the people most affected, and not being concerned with me.”
“Another FAKE and STAGED photo from someone who has no clue what she is doing. You have to plug the cord into the phone for it to work!” Trump posted Monday on Truth Social.
“They sacrificed Americans to an Open Border, and now, they have left Americans to drown in North Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, and elsewhere in the South.”
When asked if he had reached out to President Biden about federal relief efforts, Trump replied: “No I haven’t reached out to him. I think he’s sleeping right now, actually.”
The staggering contrast in response did not go unnoticed…
Oh, and this.
Amazing…
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
VDH
VDH: Our Ukrainian War Narrative – Paradoxes, Obsessions, & Disconnects
Monday, Sep 30, 2024 – 04:20 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
About half of America sympathizes with Ukraine’s plight and wishes to arm it.
After all, Kyiv was attacked preemptively by Vladimir Putin on February 24, 2022, in an effort to decapitate its government and turn the country into a Russian satellite, perhaps similar to the status of a Belarus or Chechnya.
The heroic ability of the Ukrainians to save Kyiv and to stop the Russian assault beyond the occupied Donbas and Crimea has hinged on Western weapons deliveries, specifically from European NATO countries and, to a far greater extent, the United States.
But now, after a reported 1 million combined dead, wounded, or missing Ukrainians and Russians (the actual figure is probably far higher), the war remains deadlocked with no end in sight.
Putin serially threatens to break the static front with tactical nuclear weapons. The Europeans are tiring. And no one in the United States has come up with a strategy to push back the Russians from either their February 2022 demarcation points or their post-2014 occupation of Ukrainian borderlands.
The result is a lot of disconnects, paradoxes, and mysteries about the war, the Biden administration’s role in it, and the general geostrategic landscape surrounding the conflict.
Ukrainian Election Interference?
Americans are demonized by the Uniparty elites for having doubts about their blank-check support for Ukraine. And while the American people are mostly anti-Putin, they are not always pro-Ukraine.
But why is that so?
For one, we know that Ukraine interfered in the 2016 election.
Even leftwing Politico reported that Ukrainians in the U.S. gathered opposition research on Trump campaign officials and passed it to the Clinton campaign and thus likely her appendages in government.
In August 2016, at the height of that Trump-Clinton presidential race, Ukrainian ambassador Valeriy Chaly himself wrote an op-ed in the Hill attacking then-candidate Donald Trump for his comments about Crimea.
Ukrainian expatriate and U.S. citizen Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman was the catalyst and likely source behind the “whistleblower’s” allegations that led to the first impeachment of Donald Trump. Yet in retrospect, given subsequent disclosures about the Biden family‘s quid pro quo enrichment, Trump likely had reason to worry about feeding the ongoing Biden family Burisma corruption and collusion with Ukrainian oligarchs.
Via Hunter and Joe Biden, the Bidens really were receiving money from Ukraine in exchange for selling their influence. Joe Biden really did leverage $1 billion in congressionally approved U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. He thereby sought to have fired prosecutor Viktor Shokin, who was looking into the extravagant sums Hunter Biden was receiving from Ukrainian interests. And we know this because Biden later publicly bragged about how he threatened to cut off U.S. assistance unless Shokin was fired.
Vindman himself really was an anti-Trump partisan—and later cut a campaign commercial for the Lincoln Project. He likely had leaked a classified presidential phone call to the so-called whistleblower in order to prompt a third-party induced impeachment of a perceived anti-Ukraine Donald Trump.
He refused to disclose all the parties to whom he leaked the call. (Note that Joe Biden himself in May 2004 put a hold on congressionally approved 2,000-pound bombs to Israel, likely due to concerns of losing the Arab-American vote in key swing state Michigan—a better example of a president subordinating the national interest for his own political reelection agenda.)
Vindman was reportedly involved in a family company (as CEO of Trident Support) trying to facilitate repairs of U.S.-supplied military equipment to Ukraine. His wife recently and callously tweeted of the second assassination attempt on Trump, “No ears were harmed. Carry on with your Sunday afternoon.”
Ukraine’s efforts to compromise prominent Americans, interfere in U.S. elections, and use their American contacts to facilitate arms transfers still continue in outrageous fashion.
On September 23, just 43 days before Election Day, the Biden-Harris administration flew in, at taxpayer expense, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and accorded him secret service protection as he visited the critical swing state of Pennsylvania—where the deadlocked election will likely be decided.
Zelensky and Democrat politicos (no Republican counterparts were invited) toured a Pennsylvania munitions plant making artillery shells likely destined for his Ukraine. One subtext of the visit was that Biden-Harris aid for Ukraine—to be continued or increased by a President Harris—results in jobs for Pennsylvania voters.
In an interview with the left-wing, pro-Biden-Harris New Yorker magazine, Zelensky—who himself has canceled both 11 Ukrainian opposition political parties and scheduled elections, suspended habeas corpus, and censored the media—regrettably went further in his \efforts at U.S. election interference. Zelensky trashed Harris’s rival candidate Donald Trump as someone who “doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how.”
The Ukrainian president attacked even harder Trump’s running mate and vice presidential candidate, J.D. Vance, as “dangerous” and “too radical.”
Too radical for what or whom? The people of the United States or the Ukrainian hierarchy? Amid a firestorm, Zelensky later hurriedly met with Trump, which unfortunately only further highlighted his poor election timing.
One reason why many Americans are skeptical of helping Ukraine is, well, Ukraine itself—specifically its graft and corruption, its oligarchs’ disturbing history of bribing U.S. influential figures, its interference in U.S. elections, and its dictatorial suspension of human rights, political parties, and elections.
On to Moscow?
Strategically, it is understandable why Ukraine wishes to use European and American planes and missiles to strike depots and supply centers deep inside Russia, given Russia does the same to Ukraine—and focuses far more on civilian targets.
But to equip a proxy to attack far inside a nuclear rival’s homeland was always taboo in the Cold War—and for good reason, given the resulting lowered bar of nuclear escalation.
So, the Korean War, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and the wars in the Middle East all respected our ancestors’ Cold War rule: neither the U.S. nor the U.S.S.R. in their numerous proxy wars ever used their clients to attack the homeland of their nuclear opponents with either nuclear or conventional weapons.
When Nikita Khrushchev came close to doing just that by equipping Castro’s Cuba with missiles capable of becoming nuclear-tipped, along with nuclear-carrying strategic bombers that could hit the U.S. homeland, the Kennedy Administration went to Def Con 2.
It quickly blockaded the island. Kennedy further warned the Soviet Union that in case of any Cuban-based attack by missile or plane (conventional or nuclear) against the American homeland, the U.S. would retaliate against Russia itself.
So, we are caught in a very dangerous cycle.
Almost weekly, Putin himself, his generals, Russian politicians, or the Russian state media threaten to respond to attacks inside Russia by resorting either to tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine or strategic nuclear strikes against its suppliers.
In response, our retired generals and intelligence authorities, along with pundits and diplomats—and our de facto commander-in-chief at the press room dais, Kamala Harris—discount these threats as empty bombast. They offer no consideration that what has been mere Russian braggadocio in 2022-2023 (when casualties were in the few hundred thousand and no Ukrainians were fighting inside Russia) might not be so vacuous in late 2024 or 2025. Now casualties have soared by over a million. And Ukrainian forces, equipped with a new arsenal of jets and missiles, currently occupy 500 square miles of conquered Russian territory.
In truth, the West and the U.S. have no strategy for a Ukrainian victory over Russia. Much less do they worry much that a quarter of the Ukrainian population has fled the country, and the military is running out of recruits. The default assumption is to keep fueling the 1 million-man meat grinder to the last Ukrainian and hope that Russia tires first—the sort of non-strategy that the left used to lecture was amoral and senseless in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
Why the Ukraine-Israeli asymmetry?
Israel, in many ways, is America’s closest ally. It is a constitutional state and the only nation in the Middle East that respects human rights. Its enemies are our enemies. And it is the target over the last half century of nonstop Arab and Iranian attacks.
Not so Ukraine that separated from Russia in August 1991, and yet still has a checkered history of corruption and authoritarianism.
In the present war, Ukraine has likely become the target of some 8,000-10,000 missiles launched from Russia. Yet that number is still smaller than the some 20,000 projectiles sent into Israel by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran.
Israel, like Ukraine, was surprise attacked by its neighbor. And like Russia, Hamas started the war without concern for civilians. Or rather, in efforts well beyond Russian brutality, Hamas deliberately targeted civilians for Dark Age-style murder, torture, mass rape, incineration, beheading, and hostage-taking.
It is hard to outdo Russian wartime savagery, but Hezbollah has accomplished that easily. And unlike post-Soviet Russia, it has blatantly murdered lots of American diplomats and soldiers. Hamas still holds American hostages.
So why does the Biden-Harris administration, and many elites in Washington, treat the two wars so differently? Or more specifically, why do they deify Zelensky and Ukraine but demonize Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel?
Note that Biden-Harris demand Israeli “proportionality” in responding to Hamas terror. But they encourage “disproportionality” for Ukraine to win the war. (Does America believe Russia is eviler than Hamas?)
They call for ceasefires nonstop in Gaza and the Hezbollah war. Yet do they ever commensurately instruct Ukraine to stop the war and negotiate with Putin?
Biden-Harris insist that Israel text or otherwise notify Gazans or Beirut civilians of any impending Israel attack. Do they demand the same of Ukraine when it shoots off missiles, shells, and drones into Russian-occupied civilian areas?
Netanyahu has formed a bipartisan war cabinet and will adhere to regularly scheduled elections. And yet he is still demonized as an authoritarian by Biden-Harris. Neither showed up for his recent congressional speech. In fact, in 1950s-Latin-American-coup-style, the U.S. government has been trying under the radar to remove the elected Israeli government.
Most certainly, Netanyahu would not be flown, Zelensky-style, by U.S. military transport to tour a Patriot battery facility in Pennsylvania or in any other election-year battleground state.
And if he was used by Republicans in such overtly partisan fashion, Netanyahu would be asked by the left to leave immediately—especially if he gave an interview from a swing state and, say, on Fox News, in which he trashed the Harris-Walz ticket.
We are warned by Biden-Harris that the Gaza/Hezbollah war should stop now, lest it ignite a theater war in which a possible nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel would exchange missiles and blow up the region.
Yet, Russia is no putative nuclear power.
It possesses somewhere between 6,000-7,000 deliverable nuclear weapons. And it has threatened to use them far more often than Iran has.
Ukraine is on the doorstep of NATO and any regional war would endanger America’s NATO allies far more than an Israel-Iranian conflict.
Is the Iran-Hezbollah/Hamas/Houthis Axis that has emerged from the war more dangerous than the new nuclear Russia/China/North Korea/Iran symbiosis that is fallout from our massive support for Ukraine?
So why are we lectured nonstop about the dangers of Israeli brinksmanship but almost encourage it on the part of Ukraine?
Do we believe that Putin is more rational and restrained and less likely to go medieval than Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei?
Again, what explains the vast difference in the way we oversee our ally Israel’s war and Ukraine’s conflict with Russia?
Is the explanation anti-Semitism?
Hundreds of thousands of Muslim-American voters in Michigan?
The airbrushing of Middle East terrorists unthinkable of Russian thugs?
The sheer hatred of Russia and Russians, but the pass given to Middle Eastern autocrats?
The absence of a large expatriate community of Russians in the U.S.?
Hating Russians?
The left’s hatred of Putin’s Russia is understandable given Putin’s 2022 aggression, but it’s generic nature is now also becoming obsessive. The loathing of all things Russian helps to explain the above paradoxes and obsessions—even in the trivial sense of Joe Biden in his recent The View appearance wearing a U.S./Ukraine flag lapel in a way he would likely not a U.S./Israel flag counterpart.
There is also the shame and embarrassment of left-wing past naiveté about Putin.
After all, it was Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton who in 2009 gave us the performance art, red jacuzzi button, mistranslated Russian “reset.” All that hoopla was a direct partisan rebuke for the supposedly too-tough prior Bush administration response to Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia.
Recall that in 2013, Obama and John Kerry stupidly invited Putin back into the Middle East, supposedly to help corral Syria’s WMDs, after a near-35-year absence from the region.
It was also Obama, who, in a hot mic exchange in Seoul in 2012, promised that he would give up critical missile defense in Eastern Europe if Putin would just give him space during his last election. (Again, was that gambit impeachable under our new rules, given Obama clearly sacrificed America’s strategic interests to win temporary calm from an aggressive Russia to help his reelection?)
Both fulfilled their bargains: Putin waited until Obama was safely reelected and then invaded Ukraine in 2014, while Obama happily surrendered the nascent air defense project to protect eastern Europe from enemy missiles.
In contrast to Clinton-Obama appeasement of Russia, Trump killed Russian Wagner mercenaries in Syria. He gave previously Obama-banned offensive weapons to Ukraine. He opposed the Nord Stream 2 German-Putin pipeline. He got the U.S. out of an asymmetrical Russian-American missile deal. He jawboned NATO nations to up their collective defense expenditures by some $100 billion.
Trump also nearly bankrupted Russia by releasing oceans of cheap American oil and increased sanctions on Russian oligarchs. He made it clear to Putin that unfortunate things would follow from an invasion of Ukraine. Trump’s was the only administration of the last four when Putin stayed put within his borders.
As far as the 2016 Russian-Trump collusion, even Mr. Mueller’s “dream team” and “all-star” partisan “hunter-killer” cadre of lawyers found no such thing—as compared to the Russian-fed Steele dossier paid for by Hillary Clinton to smear Trump.
There was no “Russian disinformation” either in 2020 when team Biden rounded up corrupt ex-intelligence authorities to lie that Hunter’s genuine laptop was likely Russian fabricated.
So why the left’s hatred of Russians—other than the classic projection of blaming others for its own very disastrous appeasement of Putin that the left itself had inaugurated?
One other reason was that Trump endlessly rubbed left-wing noses in their Russian paranoias, joking that Putin might find Hillary’s missing emails, destroyed while in her custody and under subpoena.
When he was accused by Clinton partisans and hacks of being a “Russian asset” or “Russian poodle,” he deliberately bragged about his “deals” with Putin to inflame his critics even more.
In a larger context, Russians have replaced South African or Iranian villains in Hollywood action movies and popular entertainment. The new big-screen bogeyman is now nearly always a large brute with a shaved head, his torso dotted by orthodox Christian cross tattoos, gap-toothed, an exaggerated Russian accent, surrounded by creepy black-suited mafiosi—and full of racist and sexist hatred for liberal America.
In sum, there is an argument to help Ukraine survive Russian attacks.
But that consensus is daily being eroded by the present beltway messianic crusade for Ukraine, in a manner quite unlike our lukewarm and vacillating support for our far closer ally Israel.
The near-hysterical official Ukrainian narrative requires denying or ignoring the escalating dangers of our sophisticated weapons hitting deep inside Mother Russia, the Somme/Verdun-like endless wastage of over a million youths and counting, and the increasingly anti-democratic and election-interfering nature of President Zelensky and his Ukrainian entourage.
.
END
SWAMP STORIES
Democrats Sue Georgia Election Board Over New Ballot Rule
Monday, Sep 30, 2024 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
National and state Democrats are suing the Georgia Election Board to stop a new rule that requires workers to hand count ballots in the upcoming presidential election.
In a filing released on Sept. 30, the Democratic National Committee and the Democratic Party of Georgia said the rule is illegal because the board only has the authority to promulgate regulations that are “conducive to the fair, legal, and orderly conduct of primaries and elections” and “obtain uniformity.”
Approved by the board on Sept. 20, the rule requires workers to hand count ballots to confirm that the number of ballots matches the number generated by machines.
If the new rule is allowed to take effect, “the general election will not be orderly and uniform—large counties will face significant delays in reporting vote counts, election officials will struggle to implement new procedures at the last minute, poll workers will not have been trained on the new rule because it was adopted too late, and the security of the ballots themselves will be put at risk,” Democrats allege.
The suit, set to be lodged in the Superior Court of Fulton County, notes that the attorney general and secretary of state of Georgia both opposed the rule. The office of Georgia Attorney General Chris Carr said that the rule likely exceeded the board’s authority and appeared “to conflict with the statutes governing the conduct of elections.”
Members of the election board did not respond to requests for comment on the legal action by publication time.
Democrats are asking the court to invalidate the rule and permanently block it.
The rule, approved by a 3–2 vote, requires the hand count to be done before the election is certified.
“I can guarantee you, as a voter, I would rather wait another hour to ensure that the count is accurate than to get a count, or to get a number, within that hour, and then to find out at the close of an election, after certification has already taken place, that we have people suing because the count was not accurate,” Janelle King, one of the members who voted for the rule, said before the board voted on it.
Sara Tindall Ghazal, one of the members who voted against the rule, cited the number of election officials who said it should not be implemented. The Georgia Association of Voter Registration and Election Officials is among the groups that expressed opposition.
Ghazal also expressed concerns over the board possibly overstepping its authority.
KING REPORT
| The King Report October 1, 2024 Issue 7338 | Independent View of the News |
| Fed’s Bowman Reiterates Inflation ‘Uncomfortably’ Above Goal – BBG 8:50 ET “By moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance, we will be better positioned to achieve further progress in brining inflation down to our 2% target, while closely watching the evolution of labor market conditions…” (Bowman voted against the 50bp rate cut.) Later, Obama BFF and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said ‘a lot of rate cuts are needed.’ At 13:55 ET, Powell said the Fed will move ‘over time’ to a more neutral stance.’ Jerome also said economic conditions have set the table for further disinflation. Powell: The labor market is now roughly in balance, and longer-run inflation expectations remain well anchored… https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-u-s-economy-is-in-solid-shape-and-the-fed-intends-to-keep-it-that-way-61631a72?g=b3dc1e12-ab37-4ab8-af70-4fa895857081 ESZs traded sharply lower when the Nikkei opened and quickly hit 5779.00. Aggressively buying appeared within seconds of the opening. ESZs soared to a daily high of 5802.75 at 20:16 ET. The usual suspects bought for the Monday Rally, Powell’s speech and expected Q3 performance gaming. ESZs stair stepped lower in a wide range until they dropped at 6:32 ET. ESZs hit a daily low of 5774.25 at 7:49 ET. Traders then bought for the NYSE opening, the Monday Rally, Powell, and Q3 performance gaming. ESZs did the reverse of early Nikkei trading: They stair stepped higher in a wide range. ESZs hit 5798.75 at 12:08 ET and then fell to 5785.00 at 13:16 ET. Buying for Powell’s speech took ESZs modestly higher. When Powell’s comments hit the tape, ESZs rallied a tad more. ESZs then reversed to the downside because Powell issued no new dovish remarks. Powell said there is no indication of a US economic downturn. So, the jumbo 50bp cut was political. ESZs tumbled to a new daily low of 5756.25 at 14:24 ET after Powell said the Fed was NOT in a hurry to cut rates. Somone then manipulated ESZs to 5787.25 at 14:46 ET. ESZ retreated to 5775.50 at 15:00 ET. It was time for last-hour roulette on the final session of Q3! ESZ were quiet until a rally materialized at 15:15 ET. On an egregious manipulation to game Q3 performance, ESZs hit 5820.25 at 15:58 ET. But too many traders were long; so, ESZs sank to 5807.50 at 16:00 ET. “Modern Economy Rests on Single Road” in North Carolina Where Hurricane Collapsed Bridges The modern economy rests on a single road in Spruce Pine, North Carolina. The road runs to the two mines that is the sole supplier of the quartz required to make the crucibles needed to refine silicon wafers. There are no alternative sources known…There has been no confirmation from the miner about any disruption. Well, not as of Monday morning. https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/modern-economy-rests-single-road-north-carolina-where-hurricane-collapsed-bridges Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA was strong all session. An afternoon manipulation lifted ESZs and stocks. Egregious and illegal manipulation appeared during the final hour of NSYE trading. Negative aspects of previous session USZs declined as much as 25/32 and were -17/32 at the NYSE close. Fangs were negative for most of the session. ESZs and stocks tumbled near the end of Powell’s speech. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are stocks tired? What happens after the manipulation to embellish Q3 performance? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5743.71 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5765.14; 5703.53  @IranIntl_En: “When Iran is finally free, and the moment would come a lot sooner than people think… our two ancient people, will finally be at peace,” Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu said in a direct address to the “people of Iran“. https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1840753333310456233 @GOPIsrael: Commentary by Tamir Morag, Channel 14: Six signs that Netanyahu may have decided to attack Iran – interpretation only: 1. The unusual appeal to the Iranian people that the Prime Minister has just broadcast earlier today [and retweeted here]. In fact, he is calling on Iranians to rise up against the regime – an appeal that will gain tremendous momentum if Israel attacks the nuclear facilities and destroys Iran’s oil industry. 2. Hezbollah, which was the loaded gun that Iran aimed at Israel and whose role was to be fired in the event of an Israeli attack, has largely been put out of action. Hamas and the Houthis also suffered significant blows – the stranglehold that Iran built around Israel has been breached broken. 3. The attack in Yemen was a demonstration of the ability to attack in Iran as well – the Chief of Staff said this in almost explicit words. 4. Israel in a tremendous military swing at a time when the Shiite axis is beaten, bruised and seems at a loss – this is an opportunity that is unlikely to return. 5. In November, Harris may be elected president and enter the White House in January – the political window of opportunity is also now. 6. Because Iran aims to destroy Israel and therefore attacking it is the logical and necessary thing to do. @LucasFoxNews: Reporter Q yesterday: Mr. President, will you deploy more U.S. troops to the Middle East? Biden: No. Pentagon today: A ‘few thousand’ U.S. troops to deploy to the Middle East’ Biden shares his blunt message to Israel before its ‘imminent’ ground invasion of Lebanon as U.S. embassy frantically works to get Americans out of Beirut (Bibi will continue to ignore Joe.) ‘I’m more aware than you might know, and I’m comfortable with them stopping. We should have a ceasefire now,’ Biden said… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13908177/Biden-shares-blunt-message-Israel-imminent-ground-invasion-Lebanon-U-S-embassy-frantically-works-Americans-Beirut.html @visegrad24 1:52 PM on Mon, Sep 30, 2024: Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant: “The next stage of the war will start soon.” https://t.co/BrQWgHpYyf Incoming reports of the Lebanese Army withdrawing from the border with Israel. Hezbollah are on their own. Heartland Betrayed (Investigation into Springfield, Ohio’s Haitian influx) Everyone is on the take. And Springfield is not an outlier. It is a standard example of local partnerships with federal and corporate resettlement programs working together to profit themselves… As well as serving as the mayor of Springfield, Rob Rue is the owner of Littleton Properties of Springfield LLC., which owns six rental properties in Springfield… I confirmed that at least four of these properties are rented to Haitian migrants… The Nehemiah Foundation is teaching the Haitian arrivals that the country hates them and White people want to murder them at the same time that they teach them English. What type of citizens, and with what politics, will these Haitians turn out to be?… Local officials and government-connected businessmen are on the take. The churches and the NGOs are creating a new class of Democrat activist voters… https://im1776.com/springfield-investigation/?s=02 @ElectionWiz: Reporter: “Any comment on the strikes in Yemen?” Biden: “I’ve spoken to both sides. They gotta settle the strike. I’m supporting the collective bargaining effort. I think they’ll settle the strike.” https://x.com/ElectionWiz/status/1840577622297722965 Biden endorses ‘collective bargaining’ when asked about ‘strikes in Yemen’ https://t.co/NxG94fi4vo 45,000 Longshoremen will strike at 12:01 am Tuesday. @WallStreetSilv: CNBC: What are you hearing will happen if dockworkers strike and it goes longer than a week? Harris-Biden Commerce Sec. Gina Raimondo: “I have not been very focused on that.” What is she focused on? That is her job. https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1840759687232319851 @RNCResearch: “Do you have any words to the victims of the hurricane?” IDEN: “We’ve given everything that we have.” “Are there any more resources the federal government could be giving them?” BIDEN: “No.” https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1840580469009661960 Netflix cancellations nearly tripled after co-founder Reed Hastings endorsed Kamala Harris: report https://trib.al/8jVcqvP @WallStreetApes: Asheville North Carolina Resident Says It’s Chaos After Hurricane Helene. He says looters are everywhere, people are vandalizing everywhere. “There were some truckers coming in with supplies and medical stuff trying to help us”, People slashed their tires at the rest stop. “The roads are completely blocked off. You’re not getting out.” “If you have a weapon, keep it on you because, there are people intentionally sabotaging stuff.” https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1840598207749038302 @MrAndyNgo: Eight men, all migrants, have been arrested for allegedly looting and burglarizing flood-ravaged victims in eastern Tennessee. https://x.com/MrAndyNgo/status/1840641844176138307 @CollinRugg: President Biden says he “was commanding” after a reporter asks what he is doing to help hurricane victims in the Southeast. Reporter: “On the hurricane, why weren’t you and VP Harris here in Washington commanding this this weekend?” Biden: “I was commanding.” Locals are being forced to take matters into their own hands as the government shuffles its feet to help. 100+ people have been k*lled as the hurricane-ravaged 500 miles of land. As of Sunday night, 760,000 homes & businesses had no electricity in South Carolina. (CNN) In Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, over 1.2 million customers had no power. (DJT might now win VA) https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1840782363845951933 On Sunday, Biden said there were ‘no’ more federal resources for Hurricane Helene victims. Yesterday, due to outrage and the optics of giving billions to Ukraine and stiffing Helene victims, Biden changed tune; Kamala returned to DC from fundraising in CA. https://x.com/ImMeme0/status/1840589073989128616 Biden defends monitoring hurricane crisis from Delaware: ‘It’s called a telephone’ “I was commanding it. I was on the phone for at least two hours yesterday and the day before as well. I commanded it,” the president replied. “It’s called a telephone,” he further snapped. https://t.co/lDsp7pcZf1 @Heminator: “I was on the phone for two hours” as a response to Americans dying in floods ought to be remembered as one of the most shameful statements ever uttered by an American president. @EndWokeness: Trump in storm-ravaged Valdosta (GA): “They’re having a hard time getting the president on the phone and their vice president’s busy fundraising.” https://t.co/7wBjIsKrpc @greg_price11: Reporter: “Have you reached out to President Biden about federal relief efforts?” President Trump: “No I haven’t reached out to him. I think he’s sleeping right now, actually.” https://t.co/5GpFl9yvAS @cspan: Former President Trump arrives in Georgia: “The Governor’s doing a very good job. He’s having a hard time getting the President on the phone…The federal government is not being responsive…the Vice President, she’s out someplace campaigning looking for money.” https://x.com/cspan/status/1840809071223394581 Team Trump bashed Kamala for a staged photo Harris on a plane looking concerned with earbuds apparently unplugged. https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1840795458605903918 @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala goes Full Biden, refusing to take questions on the botched hurricane response as the press is forced out of her staged FEMA briefing. (Catch her smug countenance!) https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1840878507162771703 DeSantis was so well prepared for Hurricane Helene that he is now sending assets and workers to other states that need help! The FA Governor asked FEMA to send help to NC instead of Florida. The Night Chris Christie Killed the Romney Campaign (over Hurricane Sandy) In late October 2012, the race between GOP nominee Mitt Romney and Obama was tightening. An October 27 Business Insider headline read: “Gallup: Romney holds five-point lead, Obama approval rating slides.” Romney seemed to be on a roll. “Then Hurricane Sandy hits,” one top Romney adviser remembers. After the Jersey shore was devastated on Monday, October 29, “Christie starts his bromance with Obama,” this former aide says… TV cameras captured Christie not just greeting Obama as the governor of a disaster zone. Instead, he seemed to fawn over Obama… https://www.nationalreview.com/2016/02/chris-christie-barack-obama-2012-hurricane-sandy/ Today – It took massive manipulation on Monday afternoon to turn stock indices positive. Nevertheless, the usual suspects will play for start of Q4 and October buying. With bonds still under pressure, equities are on borrowed time. A trading top should appear today or tomorrow. ESZs are -1.00 at 20:55 ET. Expected economic data and events: Sept S&P Global US Mfg PMI 47; Sept ISM Mfg 47.6, Prices Paid 53.8; Aug JOLTS Job Openings 7.66m; Aug Construction Spending 0.2% m/m; Sept Wards Vehicles 15.64m; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 11 ET, Fed Gov. Cook 11:10 ET; VP Debate on CBS 21:00 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5535; 100-day MA: 5473; 150-day MA: 5360; 200-day MA: 5234 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,799; 100-day MA: 40,060; 150-day MA: 39,616; 200-day MA: 39,210 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5762.48 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5356.01 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5604.71 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5699.48 triggers a sell signal Ex-Secret Service agent: @dbongino: A Secret Service whistleblower has reached out to me with damning information about the ongoing White House cocaine scandal. Whistleblower stated that promotions are now being handed out to agents with inside knowledge of the details of the investigation into the cocaine found at the White House. These promotions are believed to be in exchange for silence on the matter. Whistleblower also states that that acting Secret Service Director Ron Rowe is “under a lot of pressure” to “tie up loose ends” and to “destroy the cocaine evidence” before Trump gets back in office. @ClayTravis: Kamala Harris is asked by two former NBA players about her economic plans. This is a disaster of an answer. Guys, she doesn’t understand basic economics. She can’t even fake it. Watch this: (Kamala starts “I was raised,” catches herself and gives another dose of word salad.) https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1840790176576004483 NY Times, AP, Washington Post raise eyebrows with glowing coverage of terror leader Hassan Nasrallah https://t.co/QlZeAZ5KQk @omriceren: No more pretenses. The New York Times isn’t even putting names on the bylines of their pro-Hezbollah stories anymore. It’s just the paper, anonymously as an institution, selecting and framing its version of the news: that Israel killed a globally beloved saintly father figure (Nasrallah). https://x.com/omriceren/status/1840524822599664111 Tim Walz and his wife cheering at UM-Minn game when no one is on the field. Might be photoshopped. https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1840782135289905300/photo/1 Tim Walz Said He Was in Hong Kong During the Tiananmen Square Massacre. He Was Home in Nebraska… video and local news reports show https://freebeacon.com/democrats/tim-walz-said-he-was-in-hong-kong-during-the-tiananmen-square-massacre-he-was-home-in-nebraska/ @kylenabecker: Whistleblower informs @GOPoversight about U.S. intelligence uncovering verified links between the C.C.P. and Vice-Presidential candidate Tim Walz. (VP Debate could be fun!) https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1840835489126854805 Kamala Harris says insomnia hit after Biden dropped out, was sleep deprived the day of Walz pick https://nypost.com/2024/09/30/us-news/kamala-harris-says-insomnia-hit-after-biden-dropped-out-was-sleep-deprived-the-day-of-walz-pick/ NIH FOIA lady who taught Fauci adviser how to ‘make emails disappear’ will plead the Fifth to House COVID subpoena https://trib.al/dJIqrMw @CynicalPublius: I find it fascinating that Ryan Routh has disappeared from the public media consciousness, other than the FBI releasing the letter containing his $150,000 bounty on President Trump. It’s as if Lee Harvey Oswald’s existence in December of 1963 had been erased. @elonmusk: Once you understand Kardashev Scale, it becomes utterly obvious that essentially all energy generation will be solar. Also, just do the math on solar on Earth and you soon figure out that a relatively small corner of Texas or New Mexico can easily serve all US electricity. One square mile on the surface receives ~2.5 Gigawatts of solar energy. That’s Gigawatts with a “G”. It’s ~30% higher in space. The Starlink global satellite network is entirely solar/battery powered. Factoring in solar panel efficiency (25%), packing density (80%) and usable daylight hours (~6), a reasonable rule of thumb is 3GWh of energy per square mile per day. Easy math, but almost no one does these basic calculations. @wideawake_media: Geologist Prof. Ian Plimer: “No one has ever shown that human emissions of CO2 drive global warming… And if it could be shown, then you would have to show that the 97% of emissions which are natural, do not drive global warming.“ https://x.com/wideawake_media/status/1839258926912536734 @libsoftiktok: The Governor of Massachusetts as illegals invade her state at a staggering rate. This is real. (Video of her and 3 others doing a goofy dance on TikTok – Why do so many ‘adults’ do this?) https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1840194494701973893 @elonmusk: Very few Americans realize that, if Trump is NOT elected, this will be the last election. Far from being a threat to democracy, he is the only way to save it! Let me explain: if even 1 in 20 illegals become citizens per year, something that the Democrats are expediting as fast as humanly possible, that would be about 2 million new legal voters in 4 years. The voting margin in the swing states is often less than 20 thousand votes. That means if the “Democratic” Party succeeds, there will be no more swing states!! Moreover, the Biden/Harris administration has been flying “asylum seekers”, who are fast-tracked to citizenship, directly into swing states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It is a surefire way to win every election. America then becomes a one-party state and Democracy is over. The only “elections” will be the Democratic Party primaries. This already happened in California many years ago, following the 1986 amnesty. The only thing holding California back from extreme socialism and suffocating government policies is that people can leave California and still remain in America. Once the whole country is controlled by one party, there will be no escape. Everywhere in America will be like the nightmare that is downtown San Francisco. John Kerry Says the Quiet Part Out Loud: “First Amendment Stands as Major Block” to “Govern” – “Our First Amendment stands as a major block to the ability to be able to hammer it [disinformation] out of existence. What we need is to win…the right to govern by hopefully winning enough votes that you’re free to be able to implement change.” At a separate WEF meeting earlier this year, Emma Tucker, WSJ Chief Editor, said the days of corporate media “owning the news” and “being the gatekeepers of the facts” are over as she complained people are going to ‘other sources’ and questioning the official government-approved narrative… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/john-kerry-says-quiet-part-out-loud-first-amendment-stands-major-block-govern “The dirty little secret of liberal politics is that it is not about the poor or “social justice” but is about the political careers and moral exaltation of liberals themselves. The actual consequences of liberal policies on the poor or others seldom receives anything like the amount of attention given to promoting these policies and demonizing the critics of these politics.” – Thomas Sowell | |
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY//
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