GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $20.05 TO $2668.35

SILVER PRICE UP $0.23 TO $31.70

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2658.80

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.83

Bitcoin morning price:$61,213 DOWN 729 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $60,561 DOWN 1381 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $20.20TO $1005.95

Palladium price; UP$18.70 TO $1016.00

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3588.31 UP 1.02 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,599.30CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//SEPT 26 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2003.42 UP 0.65 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2003.42 RITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 2/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,406.31 UP 4.20Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.406/31 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 2 //.2024)

DONATE

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

EXCHANGE: COMEX

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,667.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/01/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 10/03/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

099 H DB AG 435
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 39
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 69
132 C SG AMERICAS 2
323 C HSBC 49
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 166
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 93
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 441
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 36
661 C JP MORGAN 693 11
661 H JP MORGAN 92
685 C RJ OBRIEN 1
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 6 9
690 C ABN AMRO 11
700 C UBS 1
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 17 20
991 H CME 209

---

TOTAL: 1,201 1,201
MONTH TO DATE: 10,811

---

JPMorgan stopped 103/1201

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 1201 NOTICES FOR 120,100 OZ  or  3.2150 TONNES

total notices so far: 10,811 contracts for 1,081,100 Oz (33.626 tonnes)

FOR  OCT

SILVER NOTICES: 42 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.210 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1141 for 5.705 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation

END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.23 AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 469,198 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A SMALL SIZED 93 CONTRACTS TO 144,757 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  GAIN OF $0.30 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1423 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD SMALL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. //. WE HAD ATTEMPTED STRONG SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE..  WE HAD A HUGE 1330 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 411 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 1423 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: 411 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAVE A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 1423 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE 1330 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 235,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 5.7700 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 5.7700 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 411 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 652 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 2 DAYS, total 1651 contracts:   OR 8.255 MILLION OZ  (825 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  8.255MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 8.255 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 93  CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS:1330 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF  5.355 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 235,000 OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 5.770 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 1423 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 411 CONTRACTS (USED FOR TODAY’S RAID),//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX

/ SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT   (411 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//

WE HAD  42 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 210,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4,715 OI CONTRACTS  TO 533,107 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 574 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (4715 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $28.85 IN PRICE /TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 5500 OZ E.F.P. TRANSFER TO LONDON

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  34.043TONNES+ 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 54.217 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $28.85 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 11,360  OI CONTRACTS (35.33 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE MONDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED LATE TUESDDAY WITH TUESDAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE!

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 6645 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 533,107

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,360 CONTRACTS  WITH 4,715 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 6645 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11360 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1484 CONTRACTS, WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6645 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 4,715 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 11,360 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAYS 5500 OZ E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON

//NEW STANDING REDUCES TO TO: /OCT 34.043 TONNES. + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 54.217 TONNES

 / 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1484 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 13,934CONTRACTS OF 1,393,400 OZ OR 43.34TONNES IN 2 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6967 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 2TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  43.34 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  43.34 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.23% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 43.34 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER TINY BY A HUGE SIZED  943 CONTRACTS OI  TO 145,409 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1330 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1330 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1330 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 93 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1330 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1423 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 7.115 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.30 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 248.97 PTS OR 8.06%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1310.05 PTS OR 6.70%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 843.21 PTS OR 2.18%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,0185CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0289 Oil UP TO 72.15dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.92 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 4,715 CONTRACTS TO 533,107 WITH OUR HUGE GAN IN PRICE OF $28.85 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (6645). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS YESTERDAY WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY, WHT ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! TODAY WE REVERTED BACK TO ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A MINOR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH TUESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BUT AT HIGHER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST ESPECIALLY YESTERDAY’S SMALLER THAN NORMAL COMEX GAIN ION OI.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 6645 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  6645 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6645 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 11,360 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6645 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4715 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $28.85 TUESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A FAIR SIZED 1484 CONTRACTS,  WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   OCT (54.217 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 34.043 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =54.217 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY  $28.85/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY SPECULATOR LONGS AS ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.,WE HAD SMALE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TUESDAY EVENING

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 37.112 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE

//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 33.655TONNES.+ 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

NEW STANDING FOR OCT 34.043 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 54.217 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $28.85

WE HAVE REMOVED 574 CONTRACTS  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,360 CONTRACTS OR 1,136,000 OZ (35.33

TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 214,346 contracts FAIR

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

OCT 2 SEPTEMBER  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	129,324.524 OZ JPMorgan           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	1201 notice(s) 120100 OZ 3.2150 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	134contracts    13400 OZ 0.416 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,811 notices 1,081,100oz 33.626 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

1 dealer deposits:0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits 0 oz

withdrawals: 1

i) out of JPMorgan: 129,324.524oz

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 129,324.524 oz

adjustments: dealer to customer HSBC 204.23 oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 1335 contracts having LOST 1389 contracts.

We had 1334 contracts filed yesterday so we LOST 55 contracts on our two exchanges or 5500 oz underwent a huge EFP transfer to London whereby they took immediate delivery over on that side of the pond on a T plus one basis.

NOVEMBER GAINED 11 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1335

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 4525 CONTRACTS TO 456,676

We had 1201 contracts filed for today representing 120,100 oz  

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 693 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1201 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 103 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,811x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT(1335 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (1201 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,099,500 OZ  OR 34.043 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, NEW TOTAL = 54.217 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (10,811 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT  (1335OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1201 x 100 oz which equals  1,099,500 oz (34.043TONNES + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY = 54.217 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 54.217 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,682,964.340  oz 52.34tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,112,647.873OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,828,206.279/// 243,49tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,284,446.598 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,145242 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.142 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 2 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE OCT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	0 OZ .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	14,276.263 oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	42 CONTRACT(S)    (0.210 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	13 contracts  (65,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1141 Contracts  (5.705 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 customer deposits:

i) INTO Delaware: 14,276.263 oz

total customer deposits 14,276.263 oz

We had 0 withdrawals

total withdrawal nilOZ

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/304.067million  or 44.40%

adjustment 1

1: CNT dealer to customer: 281,308.285 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.864MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 304.067million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 55 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 13 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 34 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 47 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A HUGE 235,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP ON DAY 3 OF THE DELIVERY CYCLE,

NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 41 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 432

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 177 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 125,384 CONTRACTS

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 42 for 0.210 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 65,935 GOOD

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1141 x 5,000 oz = 5.705 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (55 and the number of notices served upon today 42 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month:  1141 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(55) number of notices served upon today minus (42)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT  contract month equates to 5.7700 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 5.535 million oz.

There are 70.067 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

 OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 874.82 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ

AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 469,198MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

Rickards: Biggest Monetary Shock In 50 Years

Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 05:00 PM

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

I’d like to start today’s issue by extending my thoughts and prayers to those impacted by Hurricane Helene, which has devastated significant portions of the southeast with massive flooding.

The death toll is over 100 and may increase significantly. Let’s all hope the affected areas will recover.

Moving on, with so much attention focused on the U.S. presidential election, the war in Ukraine and the war in Gaza, which is spreading to Lebanon, it’s easy to lose sight of other geopolitical developments that may be even more significant in the long run.

One of these developments is the rise of the new BRICS currency and its potential role in the global monetary system.

I’ve been warning readers about the collapse of the dollar for years and I was one of the first people to alert you to the rise of BRICS.

It’s a monetary shock about to hit the global financial system, and something I consider the most significant development in international finance in over half a century.

The annual leaders’ summit of BRICS nations is being held in Kazan, Russia from Oct. 22–24, and will include announcements moving the BRICS currency plans forward in material ways.

The Power of BRICS

The original BRICs membership from 2009 consisted of Brazil, Russia, India and China. South Africa was added in 2010 when the group’s name was changed to BRICS.

That group expanded significantly at the 2023 leaders’ summit in South Africa when Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) were added. (Argentina and Saudi Arabia were also permitted to enter but Argentina withdrew its application, and Saudi Arabia deferred its membership saying it was still considering the matter.)

BRICS has been active over the years in institutionalizing its initiatives. In 2014, the BRICS created the New Development Bank (NDB), which functions along the lines of the World Bank to promote infrastructure development in emerging economies.

The NDB was capitalized with over $100 billion from its members and currently has 53 projects underway with commitments of over $15 billion to those projects.

Beyond the nine current members, there is a waiting list of over 20 aspiring members including economic powers such as Nigeria, Venezuela, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Thailand and Vietnam.

The BRICS are part of an emerging Global South that is challenging the Collective West for world economic and geopolitical dominance.

The BRICS Currency Defined

The subject of a BRICS currency is confusing to most observers and is a fraught topic even for many experts. We’ll call the potential currency a BRIC for convenience, although no formal name has been announced.

The BRICS currency is very far along in establishing itself as a viable payment currency. The prerequisites are: agreed-upon value (which can be fixed to another currency, floating or pegged to a weight of gold), secure payments channels (basically high-speed, encrypted digital pipes for authenticated message traffic), digital ledgers and an agreed issuer (the NDB based in Shanghai may be suitable for this purpose, but another institution could be created).

The single most important element is a sufficiently large membership in the BRICS currency union such that a recipient of BRICS payments can use them for purchases in many jurisdictions for many goods and services.

This last point is where most alternative currency payment arrangements fall down. Russia can sell oil to China for CNY (which they are currently doing), but they are constrained in terms of where they can spend the CNY (basically limited to Chinese manufactured goods and semiconductors).

The same issue arises when Russia sells oil to India (for rupees) or weapons to Iran (for rials). The seller is limited in terms of what they can buy with the trading partner’s currency.

This constraint goes away in a currency union with 15 or 20 members or more. If Russia earns BRICs from China, they can buy Embraer aircrafts from Brazil or semiconductors from Malaysia.

For that matter, the use of a payment currency in a multi-member currency union is not limited to members. With access to the payment channels, non-members can nevertheless agree to receive the BRICS currency in payment, confident in their ability to spend it among the other BRICS members who are trading partners.

The proof of this is the eurozone, which is currently a 20-member currency union with a single central bank and worldwide acceptance of the euro.

New Developments to Watch

There are several interesting developments taking place. The first is that the U.S. is squandering its rule-of-law advantage with sanctions on Russia, the freezing of the assets of the Central Bank of Russia and efforts to actually steal those assets and convert them into a $50 billion loan to Ukraine using structured finance.

Given this rogue behavior by the U.S., countries are becoming more cautious about large U.S. Treasury note reserves. This may account in part for the recent rally in the price of gold.

The second is that the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia in late October will announce significant progress in building out secure payment channels and will admit new members, which will drive the group closer to the critical mass needed to launch a currency union.

None of this happens overnight. It’s helpful to recall that the euro took almost 10 years to launch from the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 to the actual creation of the euro in 2000.

I worked closely with Alberto Giovannini in the late 1990s. He was one of the leading economists and scholars who helped create the euro. I was quite familiar with the technical hurdles to creating a new currency, especially the determination of the exchange rates at which Deutsche marks, lira, francs and other member currencies would be converted to euros.

A Linkage to Gold

It will take years to develop a BRICs-denominated bond market, although the process could be accelerated if BRICS members offered bonds directly to their own citizens as retail investors.

There is a short path to making the BRICs a viable reserve currency — gold. Members of the BRICS currency union could use surplus BRICs to buy gold bullion to hold in their reserves.

Russia, China and South Africa are all major gold producers and China has an extensive network of refineries so there should be ample gold available for purchase. When needed for purchases or settlements, the gold could be easily sold for BRICS currency. The common thread in these and other solutions is that they obviate U.S. dollar transactions.

It will still take a few years to add members, build out the infrastructure and firm up some valuation issues. Still, this currency is coming.

Even as a payment currency, the BRICS unit could be used in a material percentage of global trade giving the dollar a run for its money. The BRICS unit does not mark the end of the dollar as a widely accepted currency.

Still, in conjunction with the badly misguided weaponization of the dollar, it could mark the beginning of the end.

Slowly, then suddenly, said Hemingway about how men go bankrupt. The same could apply to the dollar.

ted.

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/KINESIS 1

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 248.97 PTS OR 8.06%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1310.05 PTS OR 6.70%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 843.21 PTS OR 2.18%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7,0185CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0289 Oil UP TO 72.15dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.92 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN :70185

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.0289

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 248.97 PTS OR 8.06%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 1310.05 PTS OR 6.20%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 843.20 POINTS OR 2.18%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  101.04 EURO RISES TO 1.1072 UP 7 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.830 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 144..77…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.0810 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.420 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.878

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.071

3j Gold at $2650.55 /Silver at: 31.44  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 63/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 93.60

3m oil into the 72 dollar handle for WTI and  75 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 144.77  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.830% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8484 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9380  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.767 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.103 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.617 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.22…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.050 UP 7 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.000 UP 4 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.787 UP 3 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Slide, Oil Jumps As Middle East Tensions Soar

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 08:14 AM

US equity futures are weaker with small caps underperforming while Treasuries erased some of the previous day’s gains as escalating tensions in the Middle East spooked traders and sent oil sharply higher for a second day after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, drawing a vow of retaliation from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and further raising the risks to crude supplies from the region. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures were down 0.2% but off the worst levels of the session following yesterday’s flight to safety; as shown in the chart below the cash index has been largely flat for the past 2 weeks. Nike shares are set to fall after the firm withdrew its guidance and KKR is weighing a takeover bid for an Asian chipmaker. Nasdaq futures were also in the red with Mag 7 names all lower ex-META. Europe’s stocks benchmark erased earlier gains. The China bid continues with HK +6.2% as property (+14%) and tech (+8%) power the region higher. Japan PM Ishiba said this morning that Japan is not in environment now for additional rate hike & will coordinate with BOJ on economy while ECB member Kazaks said an October cut was likely but warned against aggressive easing expectations.FTSE +5bps/DAX -45bps/CAC -5bps/ Shanghai closed/Hang Seng +6.2%/Nikkei -2.18%. TSLA reports sales numbers today. Bond yields are higher 3bps to 3.76% compared with a low of 3.69% on Tuesday when demand for havens fueled appetite for government bonds. The dollar was flat while commodities were well bid across all three complexes with crude the unsurprising standout as Israel focuses on delivering a ‘significant retaliation’ sending Brent crude climbed toward $76 a barrel (it was below $70 at one point yesterday) as it prices in a renewed risk premium for the world’s most important commodity, given the Middle East accounts for about a third of global supplies. Looking at today’s calendar we get the ADP private payrolls, as well as 3 Fed speakers; geopolitics will remain in focus. Vance decisively won last night’s VP Debate, but it is unclear how this will move the polls.

In premarket trading, JD Sports Fashion Plc fell after reporting results; Nike Inc. fell as much as 5.7% in premarket trading after the company scrapped its full-year sales guidance citing leadership transition later this month. Nike is facing one of its roughest patches in decades, moved to reset Wall Street’s expectations ahead of new Chief Executive Officer Elliott Hill’s arrival. Here are some of the biggest US movers today:

• Apple shares edge lower, falling 0.4% in premarket trading as JPMorgan analysts follow their peers at Barclays and Citi to trim their estimates for iPhone units.
• US-listed Chinese stocks are rallying in premarket trading on Wednesday, pointing to further gains after Beijing followed other major cities to relax home purchase rules.
• MSCI is Evercore ISI’s top pick among business services stocks as the broker initiates coverage of the sector, which analysts say includes quality businesses with high market shares.

Middle East escalations have taken center stage as Israel vowed significant retaliation after Iran fired up to +150 ballistic missiles at the country yesterday. This stood out from Axios: “Israeli officials staring down all-out regional war tell Axios Israel will launch a “significant retaliation” to Tuesday’s massive missile attack within days that could target oil production facilities inside Iran and other strategic site.”

“Clearly there is a lot of uncertainty,” Anna Rosenberg, head of geopolitics at Amundi Asset Management, told Bloomberg TV. “Nevertheless I think the market is still very much operating in the base-case expectation that it remains more or less contained and doesn’t spiral out in an all-out war. And I think right now, that is the right thing to do.” 

European stocks have pared an earlier gain to trade little changed, with the energy sector outperforming as investors assess the escalating crisis in the Middle East as well as the impact of more stimulus in China. Oil producers rise as crude prices extend gains, while real estate stocks and utilities are the biggest laggards. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

• European oil, defense shares extend recent gains amid increased tensions in the Middle East after Iran fired about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel. Airline stocks in the region decline on similar grounds.
• Wacker Chemie shares rise as much as 8.4% after the US Commerce Department set preliminary duties on solar imports from Southeast Asia in a move that could benefit the German manufacturer of polysilicones.
• Grenke shares rise as much as 5.8%, the most in three months, after the German leasing finance provider reported strong growth in new business volumes.
• European luxury stocks rebound, even as analysts remain cautious with Deutsche Bank cutting price targets across the sector amid uncertainty over a recovery in Chinese demand for high-end goods.
• JD Sports shares drop as much as 6% after a profit beat in the first half was countered by a weak update from its major partner Nike, which reported a sharp drop in sales and withdrew its guidance overnight.
• Pirelli shares drop as much as 4.7% to the lowest level since February after shareholder Brembo sold its entire stake in the tire manufacturer.

Elsewhere, Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong jumped the most in almost two years after Beijing followed other major cities in relaxing home purchase rules. HK surged 6.2% as property (+14%) and tech (+8%) power the region higher; property developers led the rally, with a gauge of the sector surging as much as 47%, while an index of brokerage shares jumped 35%, both record intraday moves. There’s growing optimism China’s recently announced stimulus blitz has brought an end to the three-year slide in Chinese shares that was driven by the stuttering economy and a multi-year property crisis.

In FX, the yen is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.5% against the greenback after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda sent dovish signals regarding the policy outlook and after Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said the environment doesn’t call for raising interest rates again. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is little changed.

In rates, US yields are cheaper by 1.5bp to 4bp across the curve near session highs, 10-year by nearly 3bp on the day with bunds and gilts in the sector lagging by an additional 2.5bp and 4.5bp. Gilts lead a selloff in European government bonds, with UK 10-year yields rising 7 bps to 4.01%. US 10-year yields climb 3 bps to 3.76%.

In commodities, oil prices climbed for a second day after Israel vowed to retaliate against Iran after it fired ballistic missiles at Israel in a severe escalation of hostilities. WTI is up near 3% to around $71.85 a barrel. Spot gold drops ~$9, paring some of Tuesday’s safe-haven led rally.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data includes September ADP employment change at 8:15am. Fed speakers scheduled include Hammack (9am), Musalem (10:05am), Bowman (11am) and Barkin (12:15pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,755.75
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 522.86
• MXAP up 0.4% to 196.53
• MXAPJ up 1.4% to 629.24
• Nikkei down 2.2% to 37,808.76
• Topix down 1.4% to 2,651.96
• Hang Seng Index up 6.2% to 22,443.73
• Shanghai Composite up 8.1% to 3,336.50
• Sensex little changed at 84,266.29
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 8,198.19
• Kospi down 1.2% to 2,561.69
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.09%
• Euro little changed at $1.1079
• Brent Futures up 1.9% to $74.94/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.4% to $2,652.69
• US Dollar Index little changed at 101.18

Top Overnight News

• BOJ’s Ueda sends somewhat dovish signals in highlighting the uncertain outlook for the US economy and unstable financial markets. BBG
• Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong jumped the most in almost two years on the Hang Seng’s first day open after a holiday. Stan Druckenmiller still said he’s staying away from China “as long as Xi Jinping is running” the country. BBG
• ECB’s Kazaks says the central bank will likely cut in Oct, but cautions markets against becoming too ambitious with easing expectations. BBG
• As Israel weighs how to respond to Tehran’s latest missile barrage, it could take a page from its previous playbook when, after days of deliberation, its military targeted a single Iranian military site. WSJ
• Israel has destroyed about 50% of the missiles and rockets that Hezbollah accumulated over the last ~30 years, dealing a significant blow to the terror group. NYT
• The Saudi oil minister has said that prices could drop to as low as $50 per barrel if so-called cheaters within OPEC+ don’t stick to agreed-upon production limits, according to delegates in the cartel. WSJ
• Russian forces are steadily capturing territory inside Ukraine “with speed and aggression not seen since the full invasion in 2022”. WSJ
• Barclays aims to bolster returns in its investment bank by focusing on advisory and equity capital markets while deemphasizing debt underwriting. FT
• VP nominees Tim Walz and JD Vance focused on policy and defending their running mates at the top of the ticket in a mild-toned debate. Vance, who succeeding in softening his typically aggressive delivery, won according to a CBS poll. BBG

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel. ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related industries offset the losses in the tech and consumer sectors. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open and retreated beneath the 38,000 level after the prior day’s currency strength. Hang Seng resumed its China stimulus-spurred rally on return from the holiday with notable strength in tech and property.

Top Asian News

• Japan’s new Economy Minister Akazawa said a complete exit from deflation is the top priority and he wants the BoJ to share their view that an exit from deflation is the top priority, while he commented that the BoJ should be careful about raising rates as it takes time to fully exit deflation. Akazawa also stated that it is not necessarily correct that PM Ishiba is positive about further rate hikes and that Ishiba’s comment on the need for monetary policy normalisation has various conditions attached.
• BoJ Governor Ueda says “Japan’s economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs”; “trend inflation, likely below 2%, is likely to accelerate”; says markets remain unstable. “Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy prices remain high”, “We must be vigilant to impact of markets, FX moves, an their effect on Japan’s economy”, “We must scrutinise market moves with a high sense of urgency for the time being”.
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato says Japan is seeing signs of recovery; “We will strengthen this trend, aiming for higher growth via higher wages and investment”. “Hope that BoJ will take the appropriate policy to achieve 2% inflation target, while taking into account financial situations”. “Expect thorough communication with market when asked about BoJ monetary policy”.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.1%) opened on a tentative footing, however, sentiment gradually improved as the morning progressed, with indices now generally in positive territory to varying degrees. In recent trade, bourses have edged slightly off best levels. European sectors are mixed; Energy tops the pile, propped up by the geopolitical-induced strength in oil prices; a factor which has weighed on Travel & Leisure names. Consumer Products is also towards the top of the pile, assisted by gains in Luxury amid continued optimism surrounding China on its return from Holiday. US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.6%) are modestly lower across the board, continuing the weakness seen in the prior session with slight underperformance in the RTY.

Top European News

• Citi expects the ECB to cut by 25bps in October and December and through the beginning of 2025, to reach a deposit rate of 1.50% by September 2025.
• UBS expects the ECB to cut at the October, December, January, March, April & June meetings for a total of 150bps.
• ECB’s de Guindos says “Broadly speaking, the problems we are discussing today derive from the incompleteness of the Economic and Monetary Union” adds “risks to growth remain tilted to the downside”.
• ECB’s Lane slide deck “Expectations and Monetary Policy”
• German engineering orders +7% Y/Y in August (Domestic -7%; Orders +13%); Jun-Aug -3% Y/Y (Domestic -6%, Foreign Orders -1%), according to VDMA.

FX

• The rally in the USD has paused for breath with DXY unable to advance above yesterday’s 101.39 peak. Wednesday’s price action was driven by geopolitics and if the situation in the Middle-East escalates, this could have some bearing on today’s price action; looking at US-specifically, ADP National Employment will be in full focus ahead of the NFP on Friday.
• EUR/USD has moved back onto a 1.10 handle in the wake of Tuesday’s USD rally. For EUR-specifically, ECB’s Kazaks put his weight behind a likely rate cut this month. The Single-Currency is currently flat and trades within a 1.1055-82 range.
• After starting the week above the 1.34 mark, Cable now sits on a 1.32 handle with heavy losses yesterday triggered by the haven bid into the USD. For now, GBP/USD is holding above Tuesday’s 1.3237 low and the 21DMA at 1.3233.
• JPY is struggling vs. the USD following yesterday’s indecisive session which drew a safe haven bid into both the USD and JPY. USD/JPY is currently tucked within Tuesday’s 142.97-144.53 range.
• Antipodeans are both slightly firmer vs. the USD in an attempt to claw back yesterday’s losses. AUD/USD has returned to a 0.68 handle after topping out on Monday at a fresh YTD peak at 0.6942.

Fixed Income

• USTs are essentially flat/incrementally lower and holding at a 114-18+ base, having faded from Tuesday’s geopolitically-driven 115-00 peak. Today’s docket is packed with ADP National Employment alongside Fed speak from Barkin, Bowman, Hammack & Musalem.
• Bunds are in the red, with yields firmer across the board in Europe after the marked dovish action seen on Tuesday in the European morning and then extended in the afternoon/evening on geopols. As it stands, Bunds at a low of 135.37, fading from the 136.00 mark and above yesterday’s 136.20 peak. OATs underperform marginally, with the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread just shy of the 80bps mark. President Macron is due to speak from 14:15BST onwards.
• Gilts are directionally in-fitting with peers which are pulling back from a combination of dovish ECB pricing and geopolitical premia. At a 98.36 trough following the Gilt auction, owning to the softer b/c and wider yield tail vs the prior outing.
• UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 2.93x (prev. 3.29x), average yield 3.880% (prev. 3.811%) & tail 1.2bps (prev. 0.9bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.704bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.60% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.1x), average yield 2.08% (prev. 2.11%), retention 17.69% (prev. 18.04%)

Commodities

• Crude is firmer intraday, and holding onto the gains seen yesterday and overnight amid the geopolitical risk premium woven into prices after Iran attacked Israel. Brent Dec resides in a USD 74.24-75.55/bbl parameter.
• Mixed trade across precious metals with upside seen in spot silver and spot palladium whilst spot gold remains subdued since early European trade following recent geopolitically-induced gains. XAU currently resides in a USD 2,644.58-2,662.88/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly firmer in European trade despite the cautious risk tone, but with some potential continued tailwinds from the Chinese stimulus efforts. 3M LME copper reclaimed USD 10k/t to the upside.
• Saudi Energy Minister reportedly warns of USD 50/bbl oil as OPEC+ members flout production curbs, according to WSJ sources; interpreted as a threat Saudi is willing to launch a price war to keep market share if other countries do not abide. Saudi reportedly singled out Iraq which overproduced by 400k BPD in August.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -1.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -2.7mln (exp. -1.5mln), Gasoline +0.9mln (exp. -0.1mln) Cushing +0.7mln.

Geopolitics

• Israeli PM Netanyahu “is expected to hold a limited security consultation in the afternoon with several senior ministers and defense chiefs to continue discussing the response to the Iranian attack”, according to Axios’ Ravid citing sources.
• Israeli military says regular infantry and armoured units are joining the ground operation in Lebanon.
• Yemeni Houthis says they targeted military posts deep inside Israel with “Quds 5” rockets, according to a statement; will not hesitate in broadening operations against Israel. Continuous US and UK support to Israel will put their interests under fire.
• Lebanon’s Hezbollah says it targeted areas north of Haifa City in Israel, with a large missile salvo.
• “Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: Nuclear facilities have been secured against any attacks”, according to Cairo News.
• “After Israel security cabinet meet: Israel is expected to respond ‘harsh’ against Iran, with the possibility of targeting strategic sites in Iran”; according Kann’s Stein.
• “Lebanese media: Israeli army advances towards a Lebanese army checkpoint in Al-Adaisseh, southern Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia
• Iranian state television reported that Tehran confirmed it fired 200 missiles in its attack on Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iran’s armed forces said if Israel responds to the Iranian attack it will be met with vast destruction of its infrastructure and if Israel’s backers directly intervene against Tehran, their interests and bases in the region will face Iran’s strong attack.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister commented on X that Iran exercised self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter and Iran’s action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation, while he said Israel’s enablers now have a heightened responsibility to rein in the warmongers in Tel Aviv. Iran’s Foreign Minister also commented that there is a possibility that the confrontation with Israel will continue in the coming days and forces are on standby, as well as noted that Iran told the US not to get involved following the missile attack on Israel and warned that any new action by Israel or its supporters will face a more severe response.
• Israel’s Home Front Command lifted restrictions on Israelis after the end of Iranian missile attacks and said it will defend the citizens of Israel and respond to Iranian missiles at the right time and place, according to Sky News Arabia. Israel’s Home Front Command also said it eased restrictions on large gatherings in much of Israel including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Iran made a big mistake tonight and they will pay for it, while he added that the Iranian missile attack on Israel failed.
• Israel’s UN envoy said Israel will act and Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions with the response to be painful.
• Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days to the major Iranian attack which could target oil production facilities inside Iran, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera.
• Israeli military said it conducted strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and it issued warnings to residents of the Chiyah neighbourhood and Hadath al-Gharb in the southern suburbs of Beirut, while a correspondent reported eight Israeli raids on southern suburbs of Beirut in about two hours.
• Hezbollah said it struck Israeli artillery in Beit Hille with rockets, according to Al Jazeera. Hezbollah separately announced that it confronted an Israeli force infiltrating the Lebanese town of Adaisseh and forced it to retreat, while the Israeli army also reported heavy fighting with Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Sept. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior 11.0%
• 08:15: Sept. ADP Employment Change, est. 125,000, prior 99,000

Central Banks

• 09:00: Fed’s Hammack Gives Welcome Remarks
• 10:05: Fed’s Musalem Gives Welcoming Remarks
• 11:00: Fed’s Bowman Speaks on Community Banking
• 12:15: Fed’s Barkin Speaks on Economy

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets got Q4 off to a turbulent start yesterday, with a sharp risk-off move after the White House said they had indications that Iran would imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel, something that materialised only a few hours later. From a market perspective, the reaction was swift, and Brent Crude oil prices surged by around $3/bbl immediately after the news came out, as investors rapidly sought to understand if this could become a wider regional conflict across the Middle East. Risk assets reversed some of their sell-off later on but it was still a tough start to the quarter

The retracement of risk assets from their peak move lower came as parallels to Iran’s attack on Israel back in April, which did not lead to a broader escalation, emerged. Both instances saw similar reports come through in advance that an Iranian attack was about to happen, and this time Israel again said that it shot down most of the missiles and reported few casualties. That said, there were some indications that escalation risks might be higher this time around. The Pentagon said that this attack used around twice as many ballistic missiles as the one in April, while Iranian commentary was more ambiguous on whether the attack would be one-off. Israel’s PM Netanyahu said that Iran “made a big mistake tonight, and will pay for it”, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard threatened a “crushing” response if Israel retaliated.

The events drove a geopolitical risk-off tone, with clear ramifications across multiple asset classes. Oil prices were most directly affected by the news, with Brent crude seeing its largest intra-day move since April 2023, trading below $70/bbl early on before peaking above $75/bbl as news of Iran’s strikes came in. It retreated slightly later on but is trading around $74.60/bbl as I type this morning. By comparison, back in April we saw oil prices hit their intraday highs for the year, at just above $92/bbl, just prior to Iran’s attack. But then oil prices began to fall back in the days that followed as the White House sought to avoid an escalation, and as tensions eased.

The risk-off backdrop weighed on equities, with the S&P 500 (-0.93%) seeing a sizeable fall from its all-time high the previous day, although it did partially recover after trading -1.4% lower. The more cyclical sectors led the declines, with the information technology sector down -2.66%. The Magnificent 7 fell -1.32%, whilst the small-cap Russell 2000 also underperformed (-1.48%). In Europe, the STOXX 600 had been up +0.51% intraday just before the headlines came out, but reversed course to close -0.38% lower. In other assets, a move towards ‘safe havens’ saw gold rise +1.09% higher to $2,663/oz.

Over on the rates side, a rally for bonds was accelerated by the Middle East headlines, though by the close Treasury yields were only slightly lower than before the news broke. On the day, 2yr yields were -3.6bps lower to 3.61% while 10yr yields were down -5.0bps to 3.73%, their sharpest daily decline in three weeks. This morning in Asia 10yr yields have edged back up to 3.74%.

Bonds had already rallied earlier in the day after the latest US data, which added to the signs that the labour market was weakening. It’s true that job openings were stronger than expected in August at 8.040m (vs. 7.693m expected), but the other details in the report generally pointed in a more negative direction. For instance, the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their job was down to 1.9%, the lowest since June 2020, and below its pre-Covid levels. So that was a fresh sign that people’s confidence in the labour market is still weakening, and the hires rate also fell back a tenth to 3.3%, in line with its joint-lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic. That was backed up by the ISM manufacturing too, which remained at 47.2 in September (vs. 47.5 expected), whilst the employment component weakened to 43.9.

Over in Europe, the sovereign bond rally was even larger, which came as Euro Area inflation fell beneath the ECB’s 2% target for the first time since June 2021. Specifically, headline CPI was down to +1.8% in September on the flash reading, which cemented investors’ conviction that the ECB was likely to accelerate its rate cuts and move again at the October meeting. Core CPI was a little stronger at +2.7%, but that was in line with expectations, and the news helped yields fall across the continent. Indeed by the close, yields on 10yr bunds (-8.8bps) were down to 2.03%, which is their lowest closing level since January. And the 2yr German yield (-4.7bps) was down to 2.01%, which is its lowest since December 2022. The combination of lower European rates and geopolitical risk-off saw the euro post its worst day against the dollar in over three months (-0.84%).

It was France that saw the biggest sovereign bond rally, however, which came as PM Michel Barnier delivered his first speech to lawmakers. From a market standpoint, the main headline was that France would be delaying its target to get the budget deficit beneath 3% of GDP from 2027 to 2029, and that they’d aim to cut the deficit to 5% of GDP next year. In turn, yields on 10yr OATs were down -10.0bps yesterday to 2.81%, and the Franco-German 10yr spread tightened a bit to 78bps, its tightest level in a week.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning with the heightened geopolitical tensions. The Nikkei is leading the declines at -1.85%, followed by the KOSPI at -0.66% and the S&P/ASX 200 at -0.09%. In contrast, the Hang Seng is up by +6.02%, reflecting continued China optimism after its public holiday on Tuesday. Markets in mainland China are closed for the Golden Week holiday and will remain shut until the 8th. S&P (-0.2%) and Nasdaq (-0.15%) futures are edging lower. A quick skim at the headlines around the US VP debate don’t seem to suggest anything that’s moved the needle in this very tight election. I can’t pretend I was awake to watch it though.

Early morning data showed that South Korea’s inflation cooled more than anticipated in September, rising +1.6% y/y (v/s +1.9% expected), marking the weakest annual increase since February 2021 amid growing expectations of an imminent policy easing. It follows an increase of +2.0% in the prior month.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the Euro Area unemployment rate for August, and in the US there’s the ADP’s report of private payrolls for September. Central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Kazaks, Lane, Simkus, Elderson and Schnabel, along with the Fed’s Hammack, Musalem, Bowman and Barkin.

2B) European report

US futures modestly lower, USD and Fixed pull back ahead of data – Newsquawk US Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 05:40 AM

• European bourses are generally on a firmer footing whilst US futures are modestly lower with slight underperformance in the RTY
• Dollar is flat unable to continue the prior day’s geopolitical-indued gains, JPY underperforms with USD/JPY around 144.25
• USTs are flat and Bunds give back some of its recent strength, Gilts follow peers and took another leg lower following an auction
• Crude continues to benefit from the geopolitical risk premium, XAU slips off best levels whilst base metals gain
• Looking ahead, ADP National Employment, NBP Policy Announcement; OPEC+ JMMC Meeting, Speakers including ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Fed’s Hammack, Musalem, Bowman & Barkin. Earnings from Conagra & Levis.

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.1%) opened on a tentative footing, however, sentiment gradually improved as the morning progressed, with indices now generally in positive territory to varying degrees. In recent trade, bourses have edged slightly off best levels.
• European sectors are mixed; Energy tops the pile, propped up by the geopolitical-induced strength in oil prices; a factor which has weighed on Travel & Leisure names. Consumer Products is also towards the top of the pile, assisted by gains in Luxury amid continued optimism surrounding China on its return from Holiday.
• US Equity Futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.6%) are modestly lower across the board, continuing the weakness seen in the prior session with slight underperformance in the RTY.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• The rally in the USD has paused for breath with DXY unable to advance above yesterday’s 101.39 peak. Wednesday’s price action was driven by geopolitics and if the situation in the Middle-East escalates, this could have some bearing on today’s price action; looking at US-specifically, ADP National Employment will be in full focus ahead of the NFP on Friday.
• EUR/USD has moved back onto a 1.10 handle in the wake of Tuesday’s USD rally. For EUR-specifically, ECB’s Kazaks put his weight behind a likely rate cut this month. The Single-Currency is currently flat and trades within a 1.1055-82 range.
• After starting the week above the 1.34 mark, Cable now sits on a 1.32 handle with heavy losses yesterday triggered by the haven bid into the USD. For now, GBP/USD is holding above Tuesday’s 1.3237 low and the 21DMA at 1.3233.
• JPY is struggling vs. the USD following yesterday’s indecisive session which drew a safe haven bid into both the USD and JPY. USD/JPY is currently tucked within Tuesday’s 142.97-144.53 range.
• Antipodeans are both slightly firmer vs. the USD in an attempt to claw back yesterday’s losses. AUD/USD has returned to a 0.68 handle after topping out on Monday at a fresh YTD peak at 0.6942.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are essentially flat/incrementally lower and holding at a 114-18+ base, having faded from Tuesday’s geopolitically-driven 115-00 peak. Today’s docket is packed with ADP National Employment alongside Fed speak from Barkin, Bowman, Hammack & Musalem.
• Bunds are in the red, with yields firmer across the board in Europe after the marked dovish action seen on Tuesday in the European morning and then extended in the afternoon/evening on geopols. As it stands, Bunds at a low of 135.37, fading from the 136.00 mark and above yesterday’s 136.20 peak. OATs underperform marginally, with the OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread just shy of the 80bps mark. President Macron is due to speak from 14:15BST onwards.
• Gilts are directionally in-fitting with peers which are pulling back from a combination of dovish ECB pricing and geopolitical premia. At a 98.36 trough following the Gilt auction, owning to the softer b/c and wider yield tail vs the prior outing.
• UK sells GBP 4bln 4.125% 2029 Gilt: b/c 2.93x (prev. 3.29x), average yield 3.880% (prev. 3.811%) & tail 1.2bps (prev. 0.9bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.704bln vs exp. EUR 4.5bln 2.60% 2034 Bund: b/c 2.0x (prev. 2.1x), average yield 2.08% (prev. 2.11%), retention 17.69% (prev. 18.04%)
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is firmer intraday, and holding onto the gains seen yesterday and overnight amid the geopolitical risk premium woven into prices after Iran attacked Israel. Brent Dec resides in a USD 74.24-75.55/bbl parameter.
• Mixed trade across precious metals with upside seen in spot silver and spot palladium whilst spot gold remains subdued since early European trade following recent geopolitically-induced gains. XAU currently resides in a USD 2,644.58-2,662.88/oz range.
• Base metals are mostly firmer in European trade despite the cautious risk tone, but with some potential continued tailwinds from the Chinese stimulus efforts. 3M LME copper reclaimed USD 10k/t to the upside.
• Saudi Energy Minister reportedly warns of USD 50/bbl oil as OPEC+ members flout production curbs, according to WSJ sources; interpreted as a threat Saudi is willing to launch a price war to keep market share if other countries do not abide. Saudi reportedly singled out Iraq which overproduced by 400k BPD in August.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -1.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -2.7mln (exp. -1.5mln), Gasoline +0.9mln (exp. -0.1mln) Cushing +0.7mln.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• French Budget Balance (Aug) EUR -171.91B (Prev. -156.91B)
• Italian Unemployment Rate (Aug) 6.2% vs. Exp. 6.6% (Prev. 6.5%, Rev. 6.4%)
• EU Unemployment Rate (Aug) 6.4% vs. Exp. 6.4% (Prev. 6.4%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Citi expects the ECB to cut by 25bps in October and December and through the beginning of 2025, to reach a deposit rate of 1.50% by September 2025.
• UBS expects the ECB to cut at the October, December, January, March, April & June meetings for a total of 150bps.
• ECB’s de Guindos says “Broadly speaking, the problems we are discussing today derive from the incompleteness of the Economic and Monetary Union” adds “risks to growth remain tilted to the downside”.
• ECB’s Lane slide deck “Expectations and Monetary Policy”
• German engineering orders +7% Y/Y in August (Domestic -7%; Orders +13%); Jun-Aug -3% Y/Y (Domestic -6%, Foreign Orders -1%), according to VDMA.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• US Democratic VP candidate Walz said in the VP debate that they will continue to support Israel in defending itself and that former President Trump created the largest trade deficit between the US and China, while Walz admitted to misstating the timing of his visit to China in 1989.
• US Republican VP candidate Vance said in the VP debate that Harris’s economic policies do not meet the interests of American workers and stated that Trump’s economic policy focuses on the return of industry to the US.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST – EUROPEAN SESSION

• Israeli PM Netanyahu “is expected to hold a limited security consultation in the afternoon with several senior ministers and defense chiefs to continue discussing the response to the Iranian attack”, according to Axios’ Ravid citing sources.
• Israeli military says regular infantry and armoured units are joining the ground operation in Lebanon.
• Yemeni Houthis says they targeted military posts deep inside Israel with “Quds 5” rockets, according to a statement; will not hesitate in broadening operations against Israel. Continuous US and UK support to Israel will put their interests under fire.
• Lebanon’s Hezbollah says it targeted areas north of Haifa City in Israel, with a large missile salvo.
• “Atomic Energy Organization of Iran: Nuclear facilities have been secured against any attacks”, according to Cairo News.
• “After Israel security cabinet meet: Israel is expected to respond ‘harsh’ against Iran, with the possibility of targeting strategic sites in Iran”; according Kann’s Stein.
• “Lebanese media: Israeli army advances towards a Lebanese army checkpoint in Al-Adaisseh, southern Lebanon”, according to Sky News Arabia

MIDDLE EAST – APAC SESSION

• Iranian state television reported that Tehran confirmed it fired 200 missiles in its attack on Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iran’s armed forces said if Israel responds to the Iranian attack it will be met with vast destruction of its infrastructure and if Israel’s backers directly intervene against Tehran, their interests and bases in the region will face Iran’s strong attack.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister commented on X that Iran exercised self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter and Iran’s action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation, while he said Israel’s enablers now have a heightened responsibility to rein in the warmongers in Tel Aviv. Iran’s Foreign Minister also commented that there is a possibility that the confrontation with Israel will continue in the coming days and forces are on standby, as well as noted that Iran told the US not to get involved following the missile attack on Israel and warned that any new action by Israel or its supporters will face a more severe response.
• Israel’s Home Front Command lifted restrictions on Israelis after the end of Iranian missile attacks and said it will defend the citizens of Israel and respond to Iranian missiles at the right time and place, according to Sky News Arabia. Israel’s Home Front Command also said it eased restrictions on large gatherings in much of Israel including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Iran made a big mistake tonight and they will pay for it, while he added that the Iranian missile attack on Israel failed.
• Israel’s UN envoy said Israel will act and Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions with the response to be painful.
• Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days to the major Iranian attack which could target oil production facilities inside Iran, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera.
• Israeli military said it conducted strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and it issued warnings to residents of the Chiyah neighbourhood and Hadath al-Gharb in the southern suburbs of Beirut, while a correspondent reported eight Israeli raids on southern suburbs of Beirut in about two hours.
• Hezbollah said it struck Israeli artillery in Beit Hille with rockets, according to Al Jazeera. Hezbollah separately announced that it confronted an Israeli force infiltrating the Lebanese town of Adaisseh and forced it to retreat, while the Israeli army also reported heavy fighting with Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is slightly firmer, finding its footing following on from the weakness seen in the prior session after Iran’s attack on Israel.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel.
• ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related industries offset the losses in the tech and consumer sectors.
• Nikkei 225 slumped at the open and retreated beneath the 38,000 level after the prior day’s currency strength.
• Hang Seng resumed its China stimulus-spurred rally on return from the holiday with notable strength in tech and property.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan’s new Economy Minister Akazawa said a complete exit from deflation is the top priority and he wants the BoJ to share their view that an exit from deflation is the top priority, while he commented that the BoJ should be careful about raising rates as it takes time to fully exit deflation. Akazawa also stated that it is not necessarily correct that PM Ishiba is positive about further rate hikes and that Ishiba’s comment on the need for monetary policy normalisation has various conditions attached.
• BoJ Governor Ueda says “Japan’s economy is recovering moderately albeit with some weak signs”; “trend inflation, likely below 2%, is likely to accelerate”; says markets remain unstable. “Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy prices remain high”, “We must be vigilant to impact of markets, FX moves, an their effect on Japan’s economy”, “We must scrutinise market moves with a high sense of urgency for the time being”.
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato says Japan is seeing signs of recovery; “We will strengthen this trend, aiming for higher growth via higher wages and investment”. “Hope that BoJ will take the appropriate policy to achieve 2% inflation target, while taking into account financial situations”. “Expect thorough communication with market when asked about BoJ monetary policy”.

DATA RECAP

• South Korean CPI MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%); YY (Sep) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.0%)

2C ASIAN REPORT.

Traders cautious amid heightened Middle East tensions – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 01:36 AM

• APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel.
• Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days, which could target oil production facilities inside Iran.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.9% on Tuesday.
• DXY is steady above the 101 mark, EUR/USD remains sub-1.11, USD/JPY briefly rose above 144.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Unemployment Rate, ADP National Employment, NBP Policy Announcement, OPEC+ JMMC Meeting, ECB’s de Guindos, Lane, Elderson, Schnabel, Fed’s Hammack, Musalem, Bowman & Barkin. Supply from UK & Germany

SNAPSHOT

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were pressured with risk-appetite spooked after a significant escalation of Middle Eastern tensions in which Iran launched an attack on Israel in what was ‘double the size’ of the April attack and said they targeted three Israeli military bases. The moves on Tuesday began alongside the cash equity open after Axios’ Ravid reported that the “US has indications that Iran intends to carry out a ballistic missile attack against Israel in the immediate future”, and then extended to extremes once the attack was carried out, although some of the declines were pared after Israel lifted restrictions on their population and signalled the end of the Iranian attack.
• SPX -0.93% at 5,709, NDX -1.43% at 19,773, DJIA -0.41% at 42,157, RUT -1.48% at 2,197.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US Democratic VP candidate Walz said in the VP debate that they will continue to support Israel in defending itself and that former President Trump created the largest trade deficit between the US and China, while Walz admitted to misstating the timing of his visit to China in 1989.
• US Republican VP candidate Vance said in the VP debate that Harris’s economic policies do not meet the interests of American workers and stated that Trump’s economic policy focuses on the return of industry to the US.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed with some cautiousness seen amid heightened tensions in the Middle East after Iran conducted a missile attack on Israel.
• ASX 200 was rangebound as gains in the commodity-related industries offset the losses in the tech and consumer sectors.
• Nikkei 225 slumped at the open and retreated beneath the 38,000 level after the prior day’s currency strength.
• Hang Seng resumed its China stimulus-spurred rally on return from the holiday with notable strength in tech and property.
• US equity futures (ES -0.2%) were uneventful with price action contained amid the geopolitical headwinds.
• European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.9% on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY traded rangebound and remained above the 101.00 level after climbing yesterday on a haven bid.
• EUR/USD was uneventful and languished beneath the 1.1100 handle after posting a third consecutive daily loss.
• GBP/USD lacked direction after slipping to sub-1.3300 with very little in the way of pertinent events for the UK scheduled today.
• USD/JPY gradually edged higher and briefly reclaimed the 144.00 status as the yen faded some of the recent haven flows.
• Antipodeans rebounded overnight amid commodity gains and as the stock rally in Hong Kong pointed to a continuation of the China-related momentum.
• SNB’s Chairman Schlegel said Swiss inflation was only driven by services and the reason for last week’s interest rate cut was reduced inflationary pressure. Schlegel said without an interest rate cut, inflation forecasts would have been slower, while he added that they cannot rule out negative rates at the moment and that the SNB ruling nothing out.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures took a breather following yesterday’s advances as the Iranian strike on Israel spurred a flight to quality.
• Bund futures mildly pulled back from the recent peak with price action quiet overnight ahead of ECB speakers and Bund supply.
• 10yr JGB futures initially tracked the prior day’s gains in global peers but with upside capped by a lack of key data and with resistance around the 145.00 level.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures remained underpinned by the escalation in the Middle East following Iran’s strikes on Israel and after private sector inventories showed a slightly larger-than-expected drawdown in headline crude stockpiles, while participants now await the JMMC meeting and the latest DoE inventory report.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -1.5mln (exp. -1.3mln), Distillate -2.7mln (exp. -1.5mln), Gasoline +0.9mln (exp. -0.1mln) Cushing +0.7mln.
• Spot gold traded indecisively but retained most of the prior day’s spoils after benefitting from a haven bid.
• Copper futures edged higher despite the mixed risk appetite with tailwinds amid the resumption of trade in Hong Kong where stocks rallied to suggest the China stimulus euphoria remained intact.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin steadily advanced during the session after reclaiming the USD 61,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan’s new Economy Minister Akazawa said a complete exit from deflation is the top priority and he wants the BoJ to share their view that an exit from deflation is the top priority, while he commented that the BoJ should be careful about raising rates as it takes time to fully exit deflation. Akazawa also stated that it is not necessarily correct that PM Ishiba is positive about further rate hikes and that Ishiba’s comment on the need for monetary policy normalisation has various conditions attached.

DATA RECAP

• South Korean CPI MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
• South Korean CPI YY (Sep) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.0%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• IRGC announced they launched missiles towards Israel and warned that Israel will be targeted once more if it retaliates, while the missile launches are in retaliation for the killing of Hamas Chief Haniyeh, Hezbollah Chief Nasrallah and IRGC Commander Nilforousha. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards also said they targeted three Israeli military bases in a missile attack and used hypersonic ‘Fattah’ missiles in the Israeli attack, according to state TV.
• Israeli army radio reported nearly 200 missiles were launched into Israel from Iran and the Israeli military said approximately 10mln civilians were targets of Iranian projectiles. The Israeli Red Cross cited by Kann News said no one was reportedly injured in the Iranian missile strike against Israel although a Jordanian government spokesman said there were 3 minor injuries from the Iranian missiles, while a Palestinian man was reportedly killed by shrapnel.
• Iranian news agency Fars said 80% of the rockets hit their targets in Israel, while IRGC said 90% of its missiles successfully hit targets in Israel. It was separately reported that Iranian missiles were intercepted as they flew over Jordanian airspace towards Jerusalem and Israeli air defences downed dozens of Iranian missiles that flew over Southern Syria.
• White House said US President Biden directed the US military to aid Israel’s defence against Iranian attacks and shoot down missiles targeting Israel.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan said Iran launched nearly 200 missiles towards targets in Israel and the Iranian attack was not effective as a result of Israeli air defences and US cooperation, while he added this is a significant escalation by Iran.
• Iranian state television reported that Tehran confirmed it fired 200 missiles in its attack on Israel, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iran’s President said on X that Iran does not seek war but will face any threat firmly.
• Iran’s armed forces said if Israel responds to the Iranian attack it will be met with vast destruction of its infrastructure and if Israel’s backers directly intervene against Tehran, their interests and bases in the region will face Iran’s strong attack.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister commented on X that Iran exercised self-defence under Article 51 of the UN Charter and Iran’s action is concluded unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation, while he said Israel’s enablers now have a heightened responsibility to rein in the warmongers in Tel Aviv. Iran’s Foreign Minister also commented that there is a possibility that the confrontation with Israel will continue in the coming days and forces are on standby, as well as noted that Iran told the US not to get involved following the missile attack on Israel and warned that any new action by Israel or its supporters will face a more severe response.
• Iran’s UN mission described the attack on Israel as legal, rational, and a legitimate response, while it warned if Israel ‘dare to respond or commit further acts of malevolence, a subsequent and crushing response will ensue’. Iran’s UN mission also said that no prior notice was given to the US of Iran’s attack on Israel but a serious warning was issued afterwards.
• Iranian order to launch missiles at Israel was made by supreme leader Khamenei, according to a senior Iranian official via Reuters.
• Israel’s Home Front Command lifted restrictions on Israelis after the end of Iranian missile attacks and said it will defend the citizens of Israel and respond to Iranian missiles at the right time and place, according to Sky News Arabia. Israel’s Home Front Command also said it eased restrictions on large gatherings in much of Israel including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem areas.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said Iran made a big mistake tonight and they will pay for it, while he added that the Iranian missile attack on Israel failed.
• Israel’s UN envoy said Israel will act and Iran will soon feel the consequences of their actions with the response to be painful.
• Israeli officials cited by Axios said Israel will launch a strong response within days to the major Iranian attack which could target oil production facilities inside Iran, according to Reuters and Al Jazeera.
• Israel warned Iran before today’s attack that they would respond to any hit on Israeli territory, according to WSJ.
• Israeli Defence Minister Gallant spoke with US Defence Secretary Austin in which they discussed a joint preparation to repel the Iranian attack. Furthermore, Austin said they discussed ‘severe consequences’ for Iran in the event Iran chooses to launch a direct military attack against Israel.
• IDF spokesman told reporters that the Israeli Air Force continues to operate at full capacity and will also continue to strike powerfully in the Middle East on Tuesday night, as has been the case for the past year”, according to Times of Israel.
• Israeli military sources said their air force will be operating in various places in the Middle East on Tuesday night, according to Sky News Arabia. Furthermore, the Israeli military called on residents to evacuate new areas in the southern suburbs of Lebanon’s Beirut, while reports also noted a series of Israeli raids on southern Lebanon.
• Israeli military said it conducted strikes on Hezbollah targets in Beirut and it issued warnings to residents of the Chiyah neighbourhood and Hadath al-Gharb in the southern suburbs of Beirut, while a correspondent reported eight Israeli raids on southern suburbs of Beirut in about two hours.
• Hezbollah said it struck Israeli artillery in Beit Hille with rockets, according to Al Jazeera. Hezbollah separately announced that it confronted an Israeli force infiltrating the Lebanese town of Adaisseh and forced it to retreat, while the Israeli army also reported heavy fighting with Hezbollah operatives in southern Lebanon.
• Israeli military announced the assassination of Muhammad Jaafar Qasir on Tuesday who is the commander in charge of weapons transfer from Iran and its affiliates to Hezbollah.
• Explosions were reported near the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar, Iraq, according to Sky News Arabia citing sources. In relevant news, the Iraqi resistance group said US bases in Iraq will be a target if the US joins in the response to Iran or uses Iraqi airspace.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB’s Kazaks said he very much agrees with market pricing on the ECB’s October interest rate decision and said the ECB has a clear-cut case for cutting rates at the October meeting as the EZ economy may face a tipping point.

2 JAPAN

JAPAN/YEN

FASCINATING: Japan gives up on further rate hikes which causes the yen to crater and will now head into the 160 level. the carry trade is now back

(zerohedge)

Yen Craters As Japan Gives Up On Further Rate Hikes, Carry Trade Is Back With A Bang

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 10:30 AM

In the past two months, reports of the yen carry trade have been greatly exaggerated, largely as a result of market whiplash to Japan’s schizophrenic approach toward the currency.

Recall, that for years on end, the BOJ and the government were doing everything in their power to crush the Japanese currency in hopes of sparking an inflationary wage-growth conflagration, which to a country stuck in a deflationary debt trap, seemed like the only possible exit from an existential implosion. But then, once the yen did crater and hit a 40 year low earlier this year, Japan scrambled to do the opposite and intervened in the open market on multiple occasions to contain further selling of the currency as the resulting inflation led to devastated standards of living and sparked outrage among the local population over runaway inflation, eventually resulting in the collapse of the Kishida government, just as we warned back in June.

Japan's standard of living has disintegrated with real wages collapsing.

Meanwhile, the BOJ is pretending there is no inflation and has sparked the latest (and maybe last) Japanese stock bubble pic.twitter.com/ICTPHjajFn

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 6, 2023

But it was only when the BOJ decided to shock the market with a surprise second rate hike in July – even as the rest of the world was aggressively cutting rates – that the yen soared, and the yen carry trade was allegedly left for dead. Indeed, the plunge in the USDJPY was one for the history books: tumbling from 162 to 140, countless yen shorts were annihilated.

The problem with this, of course, is that not only did the Nikkei crater, forcing the BOJ to immediately come out and defend the “wealth effect”, i.e., stocks, saying that it would never again hike if markets were unstable thus capitulating on its hawkish strategy just days after the hike, but with Japan extremely sensitive to yen moves, it means that from roaring inflation, China was about to revert back to its status quo: paralyzing deflation (because unlike the US, and thanks to its 400% debt/GDP, Japan is simply unable to find a happy medium and always swings from one extreme to the other). Indeed, just four days ago we said observed that a core CPI measure for Japan tumbled suggesting the surging yen was about to spark a new deflationary tidal wave…

Tokyo core CPI plunged: Japan's hiking cycle is almost over (after one hike) pic.twitter.com/ign9bphGgI

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 27, 2024

.. leading us to conclude that “Japan’s hiking cycle is almost over”, after just one tiny rate hike.

We were right.

This morning, Japan’s new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who was touted as an uber hawk and the leader that would force the BOJ kicking and screaming to keep hiking for the foreseeable future, plunging Nikkei and inflation notwithstanding, confirming everything we have said in the past two months when he announced that the economy isn’t ready yet for further interest rate hikes, following a first meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the first full day of his new administration.

As Bloomberg first reported, Ishiba said conditions weren’t right for the BOJ to move again following two interest rate hikes earlier this year, in comments that jolted the yen to its weakest against the dollar for the day, and have sparked the USDJPY’s next move back to 160…. which is another thing we predicted a few days ago.

Takaichi, Negative On BoJ Rate Hikes, Appears To Lead In LDP Election: UBS

USDJPY 160 back on the menu

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 24, 2024

The comments came after a flurry of signaling Wednesday that Ishiba’s government has no desire for now to see the central bank raise borrowing costs further. Additionally, ministers played down the premier’s appetite for monetary policy normalization and highlighted the need for the central bank to focus on the unfinished task of eradicating deflation.

In other words, just as we said: Japan’s hiking cycle is over, with the rate rising to a whopping 0.25%. Because when your debt/GDP is 450% that’s as far as it can go.

At the meeting between Ishiba and Ueda, the central bank chief qualified his commitment to raising interest rates if the economy and prices match the BOJ’s forecasts, according to his comments after the talks.

“While we will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the economy and prices match our forecasts and the economy works as we expect, I also told him we want to look carefully to see if that really is the case because we have sufficient time to do so,” Ueda told reporters at the prime minister’s residence.

Which, incidentally, is hilarious because the comments make it quite clear that when it comes to financial repression and monetary policy, “western” central banks are anything but independent and always do the bidding of their sovereign masters. Which is especially amusing considering the western media is abuzz with scaremongering over what could happen to Fed “independence” in the US should Trump win. Well, spoiler alert: central banks have never been independent, and the latest yen interlude just confirmed it!

To mitigate the horrendous optics of this “yentervention” by the PM, even Bloomberg was forced to step in with damage control writing that “while it’s common for Japan’s central bank chief to hold regular meetings with the nation’s leader, Ueda’s visit came at an unusually early stage of the new administration, an indication that Ishiba’s government is determined to coordinate closely with the central bank and dispel any impression it seeks rapid rate hikes.“

Again, so much for central bank independence.

Which brings us to another critical topic: since the BOJ hiking cycle is over, the yen is now free to resume its plunge, and that means the yen carry trade is fully back on, just as one of the best Goldman FX traders, Kerem Cirpan wrote yesterday (full note here) to wit:

Nature is healing for JPY carry trades on the back of the Fed easing into strong growth and BoJ showing no interest for rapid policy normalization. Declining M2 growth in Japan does not bode well for policy plans of Japan’s new PM. Potential equity correction over the next weeks due to US election uncertainty and poor seasonals can offer good entry points for long USDJPY.

It turned out that a great entry point for going long the USDJPY would come just hours later, now that the BOJ is done hiking for good (full Goldman note available to pro subscribers here).

And with that, the USDJPY is cleared to return back to 160, where it was just two months ago.

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

Germany is now undecided to support the West’s tariffs on Chinese EV’s

(zerohedge)

Germany Undecided On Whether To Support EU Tariffs on Chinese EVs

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 03:30 AM

By Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice

Germany hasn’t decided yet if it would support the EU’s plans to officially introduce tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, the chief economic adviser of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told Bloomberg TV on Tuesday.

The EU earlier this year imposed provisional tariffs of up to 36% on EVs imported from China, on top of the regular import duty of 10%. The EU member states are expected to vote on Friday on whether to officially impose these tariffs, after finding that China has been heavily subsiding EV manufacturers.

But Germany, Europe’s largest economy and top auto manufacturer, fears the tariffs could unleash an all-out trade war in China, in which its top carmakers would suffer the consequences.

Germany has spoken several times against the EV tariffs and has been recently joined by Spain in hinting the two large economies would abstain in the EU vote.

Germany has not decided yet how it would vote on Friday, Scholz’s chief economic adviser Jorg Kukies told Bloomberg.

German carmakers have a large market in China and as they are integrated in the global supply chain, Germany doesn’t believe tariffs are a good idea, Kukies said.

“A negotiated solution would definitely be preferable to the imposition of tariffs, no matter how calibrated they are,” the adviser told Bloomberg.

The current duties, in effect from July 5, are provisional and for a maximum period of four months. 

The tariffs led to a reaction in China, which is proceeding with anti-dumping investigations of EU imports, targeting brandy and pork imports from the bloc, likely aimed at Spain, France, the Netherlands, and Denmark.

VDA, Germany’s automakers’ association, has said that the “stated goal of ensuring fair competition conditions and protecting the domestic industry from unfair practices will not be achieved” by the anti-subsidy tariffs.

“The European anti-subsidy tariffs would not only affect Chinese manufacturers but also European companies and their joint ventures in particular,” VDA added.

END

EU/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

This is totally foolish and will bring the wrath of Russia upon the West

(zerohedge)

West Seeks To Finalize Using Frozen Russian Funds To Pay For Ukraine War

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Authored by Kyle Anzalone via The Libertarian Institute,

The President of the Group of Seven (G7) is seeking to finalize a $50 billion loan to Ukraine that will be repaid using interest and profits frozen Russian funds. Using Moscow’s money to pay for Kiev’s war effort will be a major escalation in the economic war Washington is waging against Russia.

European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis explained, “The G7 presidency is now aiming for a political commitment on participation in this … loans initiative around the end of October, which would allow all G7 lenders sufficient time to operationalize loans by the end of this year.”

The scheme calls for giving Ukraine $50 billion, which will be dubbed a loan. However, rather than Kiev repaying the money, funds from frozen Russian assets in G7 nations will repay the loan. “The loan for Ukraine is to be serviced from profits generated by Russian assets immobilised in the West. More than two thirds of the assets, some 210 billion euros, are in the EU,” Reuters has detailed of how it will work.

The G7 includes the US, UK, France, Canada, Japan, Germany, Italy, and the European Union. The bulk of the money will come from members of the EU, $35 billion. 

Dombrovskis reports that Canada, the UK, and Japan are on board with the proposal. Washington is withholding support over unease that the EU will unfreeze the Russian funds, leaving no clear method for the loan to be repaid.

The EU is seeking to alleviate the White House’s concerns by voting to extend the freezing of the Russian funds by three years. 

Using Russian money to fund the Ukrainian army’s killing of Russian soldiers will likely be viewed as a major provocation by Moscow. Throughout the conflict, the White House has waged an economic war – alongside the proxy war – against Russia in Ukraine. 

Washington and its allies have instituted numerous rounds of sanctions and other economic penalties against Moscow aimed at slowing the Kremlin’s war machine.

However, the Russian economy has largely adapted to the sanctions, while cutting trade with Moscow has harmed some European economies. 

end

NORTH EASTERN EUROPEAN BLOCK/UKRAINE/RUSSIA

Northeastern Europe can certainly stir the pot with respect to Russia

(zerohedge)

Don’t Forget About How NATO’s Northeastern Flank Can Stir Up A Lot Of Trouble For Russia

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

Most of the discourse surrounding the NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine naturally focuses on events inside that country.

This nowadays includes the improvised “war of attrition” that’s being waged by both sides within it, false flag attack scenarios against its nuclear power plants, and what would have to happen for Russia or Belarus to use nukes in this conflict.

What most commentators have forgotten about though is how NATO’s northeastern flank can stir up a lot of trouble for Russia if the order is given.

Lithuania’s failed blockade of Kaliningrad in summer 2022 and this year’s efforts to build an “EU defense line” along the Polish-Belarusian border to the Estonian-Russian one, which would de facto function as a new Iron Curtain that could expand to the Finnish-Russian border, aren’t discussed enough nowadays. That might change after the Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces spoke last week about Tallinn’s plans to close off the Gulf of Finland. Here are his exact words as reported by publicly financed ERR:   

“Maritime defense is an area where cooperation between Finland and Estonia is set to increase, and we may be able to make more concrete plans on how, if necessary, we can completely block adversary activities in the Baltic Sea, literally speaking. Militarily, this is achievable, we are ready for it, and we are moving in that direction. If there is a threat and it is necessary, we are ready to do it to protect ourselves.”

That prompted the Russian Foreign Ministry to respond as follows according to Sputnik:

“If Finland and Estonia plan to impose a complete blockade of the Gulf of Finland for Russian shipping, Russia will regard such actions as an obvious violation of international maritime laws. Its norms do not contain provisions that allow, even based on some ‘threat,’ to introduce measures to restrict shipping, much less unilateral measures of a discriminatory nature aimed at a specific state…but we proceed from the fact that in this matter they will strictly adhere to the norms of international law.”

The scenario of Estonia and Finland blockading the latter’s namesake gulf in parallel with Lithuania reimposing its own blockade on Russian access to Kaliningrad via its territory from Belarus therefore can’t be ruled out.

It might only be a response to escalating NATO-Russian tensions and not a surprise provocation, but it would still be serious enough to provoke a Cuban-like brinksmanship crisis. Russia will not allow its exclave of Kaliningrad, which is its westernmost operating base against NATO, to be cut off.

Another possibility is that Trump threatens Putin with this after the election if he wins as a “negotiating tactic” for getting him to accept whatever deal he’s offered in Ukraine on pain of that happening if he refuses.

Estonia wouldn’t talk about blockading the Gulf of Finland without prior encouragement from the US, and these same hawkish forces might either manipulate Trump into thinking this is a “good idea” or have already convinced Kamala to go through with it if she wins, which is a cause for global concern.

end

EUROPE/CHINA/RUSSIA

China is watching as the EU is quite weak and will certainly take advantage of the situation

(zerohedge)

“The Chinese Are Watching”, Says Incoming EU Defense Commissioner

Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 11:25 PM

Authored by Anders Corr via The Epoch Times,

The incoming defense commissioner of the European Union says that China sees the U.S. and EU responses to Russian aggression in Ukraine as weak. He’s right. Our show of weakness only invites further aggression by other rogue members of the “axis of evil,” including China, Iran, and North Korea.

As the world devolves into wars that strain U.S. and partner defense budgets—along with the borders that divide the democracies from authoritarian states like Russia, Iran, and North Korea—“the Chinese are watching,” according to the European Union’s first incoming defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius.

In the case of Europe’s response to Russia, according to a Sept. 22 report, “The Chinese will make one simple conclusion,” noted Kubilius. “The West is quite weak.” He said that despite economies that are 25 times that of Russia, we are not winning. “What is the reason?” he asked. “It’s a question of political will.”

It’s also a question of risk avoidance, of course. Democracies are more risk averse than autocracies when it comes to war. This makes sense from one perspective, as democracies care more about people—both in their own societies and those of other states—than do dictators and terrorists. It could also make sense from a strategic perspective if modern war is a “wood chipper” for attacking armies, as Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin rightly noted in 2022 regarding Ukraine.

The axis dictators are power-hungry to the point of a willingness to kill tens of millions in pursuit of their territorial and ideological ambitions. The number of Russian and Ukrainian dead from the current war has now reached approximately 1 million, according to a Sept. 17 report. Even more have been wounded. And Vladimir Putin is raising the stakes by frequently threatening nuclear strikes that could escalate to a direct war with the United States.

Iran is following the same strategy of feeding its proxies into the wood chipper, with its pursuit of nuclear weapons and support for terrorist proxies like Hamas, the Houthis, and Hezbollah against Israel, giving just cause for a robust defense. On Sept. 22, the United States warned Israel against starting a full-scale war against the latter terrorist organization after Hezbollah refused to end its cross-border rocket attacks and let tens of thousands of internally displaced Israeli refugees return to their homes in northern Israel.

U.S. and allied ammunition reserves are running so low due to these wars—for which the United States has served as the “arsenal of democracy” since World War I—that Taiwan is now searching for new sources of ammunition necessary to defend itself in a war against the People’s Liberation Army, according to a Sept. 21 report.

Perhaps that is why Beijing tacitly approved of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and why the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) allies with Iran in its negotiations with the United States, thus encouraging its violence against Israel and Saudi Arabia. The CCP bankrolls all of the “axis of evil” companies through energy purchases from Russia and Iran and being the biggest trade partner of North Korea. The CCP has a motive for encouraging these far-flung wars and North Korea’s nuclear saber-rattling. It distracts the democracies, depletes our arsenals, and thus will make it harder to defend Taiwan if that day comes.

Xi Jinping has told the People’s Liberation Army to be ready for a Taiwan war in 2027, and the chief of Naval Operations of the U.S. Navy, in turn, told her forces to be ready for a war with China by the same date. Meanwhile, the FBI continues to discover Beijing’s preparations for massive cyberattacks on U.S. infrastructure that could disable us during a Taiwan war. Such preparations are destabilizing as the first to strike the other’s electricity grid and satellites, for example, will have a major advantage on the battlefield.

So the question of U.S. and European weakness that Kubilius and Beijing perceive matters. What we do to defend Ukraine matters to whether the CCP decides to launch a war against Taiwan in 2027. Defeating Russia in Ukraine by 2026 could avoid a war with China that year that blacks out the entire United States and destroys us as a global superpower, even if we win. In that case, we would not be very helpful in defending Europe.

Kubilius of Lithuania is one unlikely successor to former president Ronald Reagan and his doctrine of “peace through strength.” But this is his approach. He wants the European Union to borrow money to massively increase defense spending. He wants to require each country in the EU to stockpile enough ammunition for a war with Russia that could come within a few years, he said. Germany, according to a report in 2022, only had enough ammunition for two days of war. That explains its general willingness to give in to Russia, China, and Iran.

EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen likewise believes the European Union must spend far more on defense to deter war with Russia. She estimates that the EU must spend approximately $560 billion to account for low defense spending that stretches back to the wishful thinking of the 1990s when some in the United States thought we had achieved global “primacy.” In fact, the enemies of democracy were just regrouping for a future fight.

The CCP regime is indeed watching as Ukraine and Israel struggle to put down dictatorial and terrorist aggressions against them. Calls in the United States for them to moderate their responses, however popular among our voters, look weak to the CCP. Similar calls over the decades for Taiwan to moderate its response to the CCP also look weak. To keep the peace that is left in the world, we need to meet these aggressions not with fear and weakness but with strength and courage. That is the surest way to not only a lasting peace but to one with justice.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.

end

DENMARK/ISRAEL/WEDNESDAY

Not good: two hand grenades thrown into the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen

(JerusalemPost)

Danish police believe Israel embassy blasts caused by hand grenades

By AFPToday, 4:15 pm

Two blasts early Wednesday near the Israeli embassy in Copenhagen were likely caused by hand grenades, Danish police say.

“Two explosions occurred at 3:20 am at the Israeli embassy. It is our preliminary assessment that it was due to two hand grenades,” Jens Jespersen of Copenhagen police tells a press conference, adding that three young Swedes had been arrested.

5/RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/IRAN.// Tuesday night

Iran fires 181 missiles at Israel; PM: They made a ‘big mistake’ and ‘will pay for it’

IAF, along with US and Jordan, intercept most of the projectiles; 1 Palestinian killed, 2 Israelis hurt; IDF says no harm to ‘competence’ of Air Force as some missiles target bases

By Lazar Berman Follow
and Emanuel Fabian Follow
Today, 11:31 pm

Footage shows an Iranian missile attack on Israel, October 1, 2024. (Reuters/Anadolu Agency/Ahikam Seri/AFPTV/AFP)

Iran fired a massive salvo of ballistic missiles at Israel on Tuesday night, sending almost 10 million people into bomb shelters as projectiles and interceptors exploded in the skies above.

Soon after the attack, which was largely unsuccessful, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tehran that it had made “a big mistake” and “will pay for it.”

Some 181 missiles were launched in the strike, according to Israeli officials. The Israel Defense Forces said that it intercepted “a large number” of them.

One Palestinian in the West Bank was reported killed and two Israelis were injured by falling shrapnel and debris that had caused damage and started fires in the area.

Explosions could be heard across much of Israel, from Jerusalem and the Jordan Valley. Reporters on state television lay flat on the ground during live broadcasts.

Get The Times of Israel’s Daily Editionby email and never miss our top storiesNewsletter email addressGet it

By signing up, you agree to the terms

One rocket impacted a school in Gadera, in central Israel, and photos and videos from the scene showed severe damage to the school building, although nobody was injured. Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, the Home Front Command chief, visited the site of the impact alongside first responders.

Israelis take cover inside a bomb shelter in central Israel during an Iranian missile attack, October 1, 2024. (Dor Pazuelo/Flash90)

Israel’s air defenses were “effective,” the IDF said. The US also participated in the defense of Israel, both by detecting the threat from Iran ahead of time and intercepting some of the missiles, according to the military.

The IDF said there were “isolated” impacts in central Israel and several more impacts in southern Israel. It emphasized that there was no damage to the “competence” of the Israeli Air Force in the attack, and said the IAF’s planes, air defenses, and air traffic control were operating normally.

People take cover on the side of the road as a siren sounds a warning of incoming missiles from Iran on a freeway in Shoresh, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP/Ohad Zwigenberg)

At a security cabinet meeting in a secure bunker near Jerusalem in the aftermath of the attack, Netanyahu warned that Tehran had made a “big mistake tonight” and vowed that “it will pay for it.”

The strike on Israel had “failed,” he said, and was “thwarted thanks to Israel’s air defense system, which is the most advanced in the world.”

He thanked the US for its support as well.

Image taken from video shows missiles fired from Iran being intercepted over Jerusalem, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP)

“The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies,” said Netanyahu. “[Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar and [top Hamas military commander Mohammed] Deif did not understand this, [Hezbollah leader Hassan] Nasrallah and [Hezbollah chief of staff Fuad] Shukr did not understand this, and there are probably those in Tehran who do not understand this.”

“They will understand,” he threatened, stressing that “whoever attacks us — we will attack him.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes a statement to the public following an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel, October 1, 2024. (Avi Ohayon/GPO)

He added that this had been the case wherever Israel fights “the axis of evil” — in the West Bank, Gaza, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iran.

Calling for “the forces of light in the world” to unite against Tehran, the premier urged them to “stand by Israel.”

“The choice has never been clearer between tyranny and freedom, between blessing and curse,” he said.

“Israel is on the move, and the axis of evil is retreating,” Netanyahu insisted. “We will do everything necessary to continue this trend, to achieve all the goals of the war, primarily the return of all our hostages, and to ensure our existence and our future.”

Iran said it fired the missiles into Israel in retaliation for attacks that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas and the Iranian military. It referenced Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike last week in Beirut. It also mentioned Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader in Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran in a suspected Israeli attack in July.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they targeted three military bases.

Israeli police work at a damaged school building that was hit by missiles fired from Iran in Gedera, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP/Tsafrir Abayov)

A senior Iranian official told Reuters the order to launch missiles at Israel had been made by the country’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei remains in a secure location, the senior official added.

A previous attack using 300 missiles and drones in April — the first ever direct Iranian on Israel — was thwarted with the help of the US military and other allies. Israel responded at the time with airstrikes in Iran, but wider escalation was averted.

US President Joe Biden speaks during a briefing on the government’s response to Hurricane Helene in the Roosevelt Room of the White House in Washington, Tuesday, Oct. 1, 2024, as Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg, left, and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas, right, look on. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

US President Joe Biden directed the US military to aid Israel’s defense against the Iranian attacks and shoot down missiles that are targeting Israel, the White House said.

Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris monitored the attack from the White House Situation Room, said the statement.

A Palestinian from Gaza was reported killed by shrapnel in Jericho in the West Bank.

While only two people were reportedly lightly wounded in Israel proper from shrapnel, videos and photos circulating on social media showed a number of craters caused by impacts.

Members of Israel’s Home Front Command and police forces inspect a crater left by a Iranian missle at a heavily-damaged school building in southern Israel on October 1, 2024. (Menahem KAHANA / AFP)

Shortly after midnight, the IDF Home Front Command announced that it was easing restrictions in central Israel, the Jerusalem area, and some parts of northern Israel following the attack.

IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters earlier in the night that the IAF “continues to operate at full capacity, and tonight will also continue to strike powerfully in the Middle East, as has been the case for the past year.”

“The Israeli and US air defense systems operated effectively. There was close cooperation in detection and interception,” he said.

An anti-missile system fires interceptors at missiles fired from Iran, as seen in the West Bank on October 1, 2024. (Wisam Hashlamoun/Flash90)

“We are still investigating [the result of the attack] and do not want to give the enemy all the information,” Hagari said.

“Iran carried out a serious act tonight and is pushing the Middle East to an escalation. We will act at the place and time of our choosing, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon,” he continued.

“Tonight’s event will have consequences.”

Israelis take cover inside a bomb shelter at the Ben Gurion airport as a siren alert is sounded amid an Iranian missile attack in Tel Aviv, October 1, 2024. (Dor Pazuelo/Flash90)

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, however, said that if Israel retaliated Tehran’s response would be “more crushing and ruinous.”

American forces are ready to provide “additional defensive support” to Israel after helping protect it during an Iranian missile attack, a US defense official said.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated the US’s commitment to Israel’s safety in a call with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in the aftermath of the attack, Pentagon spokesperson Pat Ryder said during a briefing.

Austin reaffirmed the US’ ironclad commitment to Israel’s defense and stressed that the US remains well-postured in the Middle East to defend American assets and to defend Israel.

Ryder also told reporters that Iran launched about twice as many ballistic missiles on Tuesday as it did in its previous direct attack on Israel in April.

Jordan’s Public Security Directorate said its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones as Iran attacked Israel, just as it had done in April.

“The Royal Jordanian Air Force and air defense systems responded to a number of missiles and drones that entered Jordanian airspace,” a statement said.

There was widespread international condemnation of the strikes.

Hamas praised Iran’s missile attack, saying it was in revenge for the killings of Hamas leader Haniyeh and Hezbollah chief Nasrallah.

“The Islamic Resistance Movement [Hamas] blesses the heroic rocket launches carried out by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran against wide areas of our occupied lands,” a statement said, adding it was “in revenge for the blood of our heroic martyrs.”

Israeli air defense system fires to intercept missiles launched from Iran over Hadera, Oct. 1, 2024. (AP/Ariel Schalit)

Iran-backed Iraqi militias said that if the US took part in “any hostile action” against Iran, then American interests in the region would be under threat.

The statement from the group calling itself the Coordination Committee for the Iraqi Resistance also warned Israel against using Iraqi airspace to retaliate against Iran, saying “all American bases and interests in Iraq and the region will be our target.”

The Iranian attack came after the IDF launched a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon overnight Monday-Tuesday.

Israeli armored vehicles seen in a staging area in northern Israel near the Israel-Lebanon border, October 1, 2024. (AP/Baz Ratner)

Amid the US warnings of the imminent Iranian attack, received by Israel earlier in the day,  Netanyahu spoke of “days of great challenges” ahead. In a video statement, he urged unity in Israel, and asked the public to follow the instructions of the Home Front Command.

Iran did not give the United States prior notice of its attack on Israel, Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York said.

Earlier in the evening, the Home Front Command had issued instructions to residents of the central area of Israel, known as Gush Dan, warning them to remain “nearby” a bomb shelter or other protected area until further notice, following reports of an imminent Iranian attack.

Three Israeli officials quoted anonymously by The New York Times said that Iran would likely target three military air bases, and “an intelligence headquarters north of Tel Aviv,” which it said has been evacuated.

The US embassy in Jerusalem issued a security warning telling its employees and their families “to shelter in place until further notice.”

Earlier, the Pentagon said the US was boosting its forces in the Middle East by a “few thousand” troops, by bringing in new units while extending others that are already there.

“A certain number of units already deployed to the Middle East region… will be extended, and the forces due to rotate into theater to replace them will now instead augment” those that are already there, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told journalists on Monday.

In this photo released by the US Navy, the amphibious assault ship USS Kearsarge and the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Bainbridge sail in formation as part of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group in the Arabian Sea. (Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Brian M. Wilbur, U.S. Navy via AP)

“These augmented forces include F-16, F-15E, A-10, F-22 fighter aircraft and associated personnel,” Singh said, later adding that there will be “an additional few thousand” personnel in the region as a result.

The US Central Command announced Tuesday that three additional squadrons of warplanes were arriving in the region, while one was already present.

Agencies contributed to this report. 

end

Israel/Iran

Israelis Leave Shelters After Iranian Attack Of 180 Ballistic Missiles; IDF Says Preparing To Hit Back

Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 03:11 PM

Summary:

• Iran says its action is concluded “unless the Israeli regime decides to invite further retaliation.”
• Prime Minister Netanyahu says Iran made a big mistake tonight and will pay for it.
• Common estimates show the attack on Israel involved at least 180 ballistic missiles. The Pentagon says about 200, or about twice the size of the prior April attack.
• The waves of launches constituted the largest missile strike on Israel by Iran in history.
• IRGC is claiming that 90% of missiles successfully hit their targets in Israel.
• There were confirmed strikes on the ground, but no official casualties reported.
• Israel’s emergency authorities have lifted all restrictions, and people in Tel Aviv have emerged from bomb shelters and returned to the streets.
• White House says Iranian attack on Israel apparently “defeated and ineffective”.
• Sullivan says there will be consequences for the attack, and US is consulting Israel on next steps or a potential response
• Axios’ Barak Ravid has told CNN that he expects major Israeli retaliation strikes on Iran to come within the next several hours.
• Iranian state TV says hypersonic Fatah missiles were used in the attack.
• Iran’s President on X stated he does not seek war but will face any threat from Israel firmly.
• Iran has said it gave no prior warning to US, but it did consult with Russia.
• The IDF is vowing to ‘strike powerfully’ at targets in the Middle East.
• IDF spox: “Iran carried out a serious act tonight and is pushing the Middle East to an escalation. We will act at the place and time of our choosing, in accordance with the guidance of the political echelon.”
• IDF spox: “Tonight’s event will have consequences.”
•  Iran-backed Iraqi militias say if the US takes part in “any hostile action” then US bases will come under attack.
• UN chief condemns ‘broadening Mideast conflict’ without mentioning Iran.
• Blinken: Iran’s missile attack on Israel ‘unacceptable,’ entire world should condemn.
• US says it is ready to defend Israel, with Biden ordering US military assets to confront any further inbound projectiles.
• At least two guided-missile destroyers in Eastern Mediterranean fired interceptors at inbound Iranian missiles. 
• Pentagon says about a dozen interceptor missiles were fired.
• Pentagon refuses to say whether US will join in on future kinetic strikes against Iran.

Below: footage confirming one of several direct hits on the Tel Aviv area:

33/ A direct hit on a target in Tel Aviv pic.twitter.com/JL1HfU92P1

— Sina Toossi (@SinaToossi) October 1, 2024

And another: One of the hypersonics?

⚡️From the Iranian strikes on “Israel” earlier tonight pic.twitter.com/Mjq9D3bDdx

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 1, 2024

Clearly many missiles got through the Iron Dome, which appeared overwhelmed:

⚡️🚨 Missile rain on the Nevatim Airbase pic.twitter.com/jeBqXaH0lT

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) October 1, 2024

end

ISRAEL IRAN

Missile impacts deemed by military as ‘ineffective’

IDF acknowledges some Iranian missiles hit airbases, says no major damage caused

Damage caused to offices, maintenance areas, but not to any aircraft or critical infrastructure; military says Iran did not fire hypersonic missiles in attack as claimed

By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 4:34 pm

An Israeli man walks past the rubble of a destroyed building in Hod HaSharon in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel, on October 2, 2024.(Jack GUEZ / AFP)

The Israeli military on Wednesday acknowledged that some of its airbases were hit in Iran’s massive ballistic missile attack on the country a night earlier, but stressed that no harm was caused to the functioning of the Israeli Air Force.

The missile impacts damaged office buildings and other maintenance areas in the bases, according to the military.

All of the missile impacts in the airbases were deemed by the military as “ineffective,” meaning that no harm was caused to the continuous operations of the IAF.

The military reported no damage caused to fighter jets, drones, other aircraft, munitions, and critical infrastructure.

Highlighting the ineffectiveness of the Iranian attack, which consisted of a massive salvo of more than 180 ballistic missiles fired at Israel, the military noted that the IAF continued its operations in the following hours, including major strikes against Hezbollah in Beirut, support for ground forces in southern Lebanon, and strikes in Gaza.

The remains of an Iranian missile on the ground in the Negev desert near Arad, on October 2, 2024, in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel. (Menahem KAHANA / AFP)

The IDF said that it measures the effectiveness of an attack based on how much damage was caused to critical infrastructure and assets and how many casualties were caused, and not how many missiles ultimately impacted. Air defenses successfully prevented such damage and major casualties, it said.

The IAF was also readying for a response against Iran, per the political echelon’s instructions.

Iran fired the massive salvo at Israel on Tuesday night, sending almost 10 million people into bomb shelters as projectiles and interceptors exploded in the skies above.

The Israel Defense Forces said that it intercepted “a large number” of them.

According to the military, the missiles launched at Israel on Tuesday were not hypersonic as Iran had claimed.

An anti-missile system fires interceptors at missiles fired from Iran, as seen in the West Bank on October 1, 2024. (Wisam Hashlamoun/Flash90)

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it had used Fattah missiles for the first time, which it has described as a “hypersonic missile.”

Hypersonic weapons, which fly above Mach 5, or five times the speed of sound, could pose crucial challenges to missile defense systems because of their speed and maneuverability. Iran described the Fattah as being able to reach Mach 15 — which is 15 times the speed of sound.

The military said that Iran does not possess hypersonic missiles, and the missiles launched at the country were not maneuverable.

Israel’s air defenses were “effective,” the IDF said late Tuesday. The US also participated in the defense of Israel, both by detecting the threat from Iran ahead of time and intercepting some of the missiles, according to the military.

The IDF said there were “isolated” impacts in central Israel and several more in southern Israel. It emphasized that there was no damage to the “competence” of the Israeli Air Force in the attack, and said the IAF’s planes, air defenses, and air traffic control were operating normally.

One of the missiles impacted a school in Gadera, in central Israel, with photos and videos from the scene showing severe damage to the school building. Nobody was injured. Maj. Gen. Rafi Milo, the Home Front Command chief, visited the site of the impact alongside first responders.

Israeli security forces at the scene where a missile fired from Iran hit a school in the town of Gedera, October 1, 2024. (Liron Moldovan/Flash90)

At a security cabinet meeting in a secure bunker near Jerusalem in the aftermath of the attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Tehran had made a “big mistake tonight” and vowed that “it will pay for it.”

Iran said it fired the missiles into Israel in response to attacks that killed leaders of Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Iranian military. It referenced Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Revolutionary Guard Gen. Abbas Nilforoushan, both killed in an Israeli airstrike last week in Beirut. It also mentioned Ismail Haniyeh, a top leader in Hamas who was assassinated in Tehran in July a suspected Israeli attack.

A previous attack using 300 missiles and drones in April — the first ever direct Iranian on Israel — was thwarted with the help of the US military and other allies. Israel reportedly responded at the time with an airstrike in Iran, targeting an air defense system near a nuclear site, but wider escalation was averted.

ISRAEL/IRAN

Israel is mulling whether to attack Iran’s oil infrastructure or nuclear sites in response to the missile attack

(zerohedge)

Israel said mulling attacks on Iran oil rigs, nuclear sites in response to missile attack

Cabinet said resolved to respond militarily, but has not decided how; officials also weighing targeted assassinations, attacks on air defenses; response to be coordinated with US

By ToI StaffToday, 1:54 p

Israeli security forces at the scene where a missile fired from Iran hit a school in the town of Gedera, October 1, 2024. (Liron Moldovan/Flash90)

Israel may respond to Iran’s major Tuesday ballistic missile attack by striking strategic infrastructure, such as gas or oil rigs, or by directly targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, media reports said on Wednesday, citing Israeli officials.

Targeted assassinations and attacks on Iran’s air defense systems are also possible responses, Axios reported.

An attack on Iranian oil facilities could devastate the country’s economy, and any of the considered responses could mark another escalation, almost one year into the ongoing war that began when the Hamas terror group attacked Israel in October 2023.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was expected to convene a meeting on Wednesday to discuss potential responses to the attack, which consisted of some 181 ballistic missiles fired directly at Israel from Iran, almost all of which were intercepted as Israelis nationwide huddled in bomb shelters.

The discussion comes after another hours-long meeting of the security cabinet in a bunker underneath Jerusalem Tuesday night. That meeting ended with the understanding that Israel would respond to the attack militarily, but without clarity as to how it would do so, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing unnamed Israeli officials.

The absence of a more specific decision was in part out of a desire to coordinate any plans with the United States, the report said, adding that Netanyahu was expected to speak with US President Joe Biden as soon as Wednesday afternoon.

Netanyahu declared after the attack that “Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it,” vowing, “whoever attacks us — we will attack them.”

In April, the Islamic Republic fired some 300 missiles and drones at Israel, after an airstrike killed several Iranian generals in Damascus. Though Israel’s alleged response to that attack was restrained, analysts told media outlets Wednesday that Israel is likely to be more aggressive this time around.

Israelis take cover inside a bomb shelter at Ben Gurion Airport as a siren alert is sounded amid a ballistic missile attack from Iran, October 1, 2024. (Dor Pazuelo/Flash90)

That’s in part because the attack on Tuesday came some two weeks into a new Israeli offensive against the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon, which has devastated the Iranian proxy, lessening its power as a deterrent against strong Israeli action.

There remains, however, the possibility that Iran itself could escalate, including into a full-scale war, if Israel deals it a serious blow.

“We have a big question mark about how the Iranians are going to respond to an attack, but we take into consideration the possibility that they would go all in, which will be a whole different ball game,” an Israeli official told Axios.

In Israel, ministers vowed that Iran would regret the attack, while politicians, including from the opposition, called for a heavy response.

Foreign Minister Israel Katz, in a statement Tuesday, declared: “The ayatollahs’ regime has crossed the red line — and the State of Israel will not be silent in the face of Iran’s criminal attack on our citizens.”

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant wrote on X: “Iran has not learned a simple lesson — those who attack the State of Israel, pay a heavy price.”

I spent this evening in the command and control center together with senior defense officials, closely watching the IDF’s successful defense against the Iranian missile attack on Israel.

Iran has not learned a simple lesson – those who attack the State of Israel, pay a heavy…

— יואב גלנט – Yoav Gallant (@yoavgallant) October 1, 2024

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, too, said in a statement Wednesday morning that “the response must be harsh, and send a clear message to the entire axis: Iran, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza,” naming countries and territories from which Iranian-backed terror groups have launch attacks on Israel.

“Alongside a military response, we must also develop an overall regional political strategy, that turns military success into strategic change, and we must not forget for one moment the urgent need to bring our hostages home,” Lapid added, referring to the 97 people kidnapped in Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack who are still held captive in Gaza, plus four others held there for around a decade.

Some voices went further, calling explicitly for Israel to target Iran’s nuclear facilities and oil industry sites and to threaten the regime itself. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett, speaking on CNN Tuesday shortly after the attack, called this moment a “once in a 50-year opportunity.”

“We need to take out Iran’s nuclear program, we need to attack Iran’s energy facilities, and we need to attack the regime itself, right away,” Bennett said, noting that Hezbollah and Hamas are at a historically weak point after a year of war.

“It’s time to hit, destroy the nuclear program, and finally allow the Iranian people to rise up — the amazing Iranian people, who have one of the worst regimes on earth,” he said.

The United States on Wednesday signaled a willingness to support Israel in a potential response, with the White House promising “severe consequences for this attack,” and saying it “will work with Israel to make that the case.”

Asked how he wanted Israel to respond, US President Joe Biden said this was a matter in “active discussion” and that the consequences for Tehran “remain to be seen.”

US officials told Western outlets on Wednesday that while the Biden administration supports an Israeli response, it believes such a response should be limited, and is concerned about the consequences of escalation.

Republicans and pro-Israel Democrats in the US Congress, meanwhile, urged the White House to back Israel in a harsh response.

“I urge the reimposition of a maximum pressure campaign against Iran and fully support Israel’s right to respond disproportionately to stop this threat,” said Senator Marco Rubio, using the Trump administration’s phrase for its exertion of harsh sanctions.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH//

More strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut

(JerusalemPost)

IDF strikes Hezbollah terror targets in Beirut, IDF Arabic spokesperson warns residents

The IDF has initiated operations in Beirut against Hezbollah, urging residents to evacuate specific areas due to imminent strikes.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 2, 2024 01:44Updated: OCTOBER 2, 2024 04:55

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-822914&unitId=2900003088&userId=fc1f54a9-182e-48c4-af1c-0ddd1497d1d7&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241001_7fb3a3cb5c96870ecb7c409fae25013b71d39209&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF has begun operating in Beirut, striking terror targets in the area, the IDF reported on Wednesday overnight.

Following the announcement, IDF Arabic Spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted on X, formerly Twitter, an urgent warning in Arabic calling the residents of the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate.

#عاجل ‼️ انذار عاجل إلى سكان الضاحية الجنوبية وتحديدًا المتواجدين في المبنى المحدد في الخارطة في حي حدث غرب
⭕️أنتم متواجدون بالقرب من منشآت ومصالح تابعة لحزب الله حيث سيعمل ضدها جيش الدفاع على مدى الزمني القريب
⭕️من أجل سلامتكم وسلامة أبناء عائلتكم عليكم اخلاء هذا المبنى… pic.twitter.com/ugnHrLQUeW

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) October 2, 2024

Moreover, the Adraee specified that those located in a building in the Hadath neighborhood west of Beirut should stay at least 500 meters away from the area.

Additionally, he explained that the warning applies also to those who are located near facilities that belong to Hezbollah, as the IDF is expected to operate in the area against the terror organization in the near future.

Iran retaliates for Nasrallah’s elimination

The IDF’s operations in Lebanon on Wednesday overnight follow Iran’s retaliation against Israel for eliminating the Lebanese terrorist organization’s secretary general Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah on Friday.

As the Jerusalem Post reported, on Tuesday night, Iran launched approximately 180 ballistic missiles at Israel, triggering 1,800 rocket sirens nationwide. Significant damage occurred, including a direct hit on a Chabad school in Gedera, with three injuries reported in Tel Aviv, and one Palestinian worker was killed by rocket debris in Jericho.

Despite Iran’s warning of severe consequences should Israel retaliate, shortly after the attack, the IDF had vowed to retaliate strongly.

This is a developing report.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

Israel strikes Beirut strongholds

(AFP)

Lebanese security source says at least 5 Israeli strikes hit Hezbollah’s Beirut stronghold

By AFPToday, 4:31 am

A Lebanese security source says that at least five Israeli strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs in the early hours of Wednesday morning, after the IDF twice called for residents in the Hezbollah stronghold, known as Dahiyeh, to clear the areas surrounding specific buildings ahead of imminent strikes.

“At least five Israeli strikes targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs,” the source says, requesting anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

AFP correspondents report hearing multiple explosions and saw smoke rising in one area while a fire appeared to burn.

The Israeli military says that it is “currently striking Hezbollah terror targets in Beirut.”

More from today’s Liveblog:

• Rocket sirens sound in Misgav Am in northern Israel
• On debate stage, Walz slams Trump for backing out of Iran nuclear deal
• Vice presidential debate opens with question on crisis in the Middle East

END

Another division joins ground operation in Lebanon

(Jerusalem Post)

IDF 36th Division joins ground operation in Lebanon

The soldiers will be accompanied by the Israel Air Force and the 282nd Artillery Brigade.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 2, 2024 09:30Updated: OCTOBER 2, 2024 13:03

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-822941&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_a53b79b1e09d9e08ad292cb8aadbbd27171fb5d8&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The 36th Division of the IDF will be joining the targeted raids on the Hezbollah terror group during Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon, the Israeli military announced on Wednesday morning.

The 36th Division, which will join the fighting in Lebanon, will include soldiers from the 188th Armored Brigade and 6th Infantry Brigade, along with additional forces, the IDF said. 

It also noted that so far, the unit will be joining to initiate “limited, localized, targeted raids on Hezbollah terror targets and terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon.”

Furthermore, the IDF added that the soldiers will be accompanied by the Israel Air Force and the 282nd Artillery Brigade.

The IDF’s entry into southern Lebanon began on Monday evening and is the first time that Israel’s military has entered Lebanon on the ground since 2006.

Notably, the decision to add the 36th Division to the ground invasion comes the day after the Iranian missile attack that targeted Israel on Tuesday evening.

IDF ground operation targets Hezbollah terror structures

On Tuesday, the IDF maneuvered into several villages in the eastern sector of Lebanon where, according to intelligence, Hezbollah held a terrorist infrastructure.

IDF artillery also fired at the area, aiming to destroy terrorist infrastructure, kill Hezbollah terrorists, and disrupt terrorist activity.

The ground maneuver was supported by extensive air force operations aimed at gathering intelligence on the situation on the ground and targeting terrorists operating inside buildings.

end

IDF expands Lebanon ground invasion, rockets target Israel’s North

Israel conducts strike in Dahieh suburb of Beirut – report

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 2, 2024 11:10

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-822961&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_a53b79b1e09d9e08ad292cb8aadbbd27171fb5d8&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israel conducted an airstrike in the Dahieh suburb of Beirut on Wednesday, according to Israeli media reports citing Lebanese media. 

end

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

IDF announces 7 IDF soldiers killed by Hezbollah during Lebanon ground operation

During the ambush, Hezbollah reportedly attacked the IDF soldiers with anti-tank missiles and forces on the ground. 

By YONAH JEREMY BOB, KESHET NEEV, DARCIE GRUNBLATTOCTOBER 2, 2024 17:33Updated: OCTOBER 2, 2024 18:47

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-822975&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF announced the names of seven soldiers who fell in battle in southern Lebanon Wednesday afternoon, as well as those who were wounded in the operations. 

The IDF soldiers killed in southern Lebanon that were published include:

Capt. Harel Etinger (23), from Eli, was the team commander in the Egoz Unit, Commando Brigade.

Capt. Itai Ariel Giat (23), from Shoham, was an officer in the Combat Engineering Corps, Yahalom Unit.

Sgt.-Maj. Noam Barzilay (22), from Kokhav Ya’ir, was a soldier in the Egoz Unit, Commando Brigade.

Sgt.-Maj. Or Mantzur (21), from Beit Aryeh, was a soldier in the Egoz Unit, Commando Brigade.

Sgt.-Maj. Nazar Itkin (21), from Kiryat Ata, was a soldier in the Egoz Unit, Commando Brigade.

St.-Sgt. Almken Terefe (21), from Jerusalem, was a soldier in the Golani Reconnaissance Unit, Golani Brigade.

St.-Sgt. Ido Broyer (21), from Ness Ziona, was a soldier in the Golani Reconnaissance Unit, Golani Brigade.

IDF soldiers who were wounded in the incidents

They were killed and wounded during Israel’s ground operation in southern Lebanon on Wednesday in a set of three different incidents.

In the incident where Captain Harel Etinger, Captain Itai Ariel Giat, Master Sergeant Noam Barzilay, Master Sergeant Or Mantzur, and Master Sergeant Nazar Itkin fell, an officer and four soldiers from the Egoz Unit, Commando Brigade, were seriously wounded.

---

---

In the incident where Staff Sergeant Almken Terefe and Staff Sergeant Ido Broyer fell, a fighter from the Golani Reconnaissance Unit, Golani Brigade, was seriously wounded.

In another incident, a combat medic from the 51st Battalion, Golani Brigade, was seriously wounded during fighting in the north.

All the wounded soldiers were evacuated to hospitals for medical treatment, and their families have been notified.

This is a developing story.

END

ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH //ANALYSIS

Only way for Israeli northerners to return home is boots on ground in south Lebanon – editorial

We at The Jerusalem Post wish the IDF success in its sacred mission to defeat the terror threat in Lebanon.

By JPOST EDITORIALOCTOBER 2, 2024 05:54

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fopinion%2Farticle-822893&unitId=2900003088&userId=fc1f54a9-182e-48c4-af1c-0ddd1497d1d7&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241001_7fb3a3cb5c96870ecb7c409fae25013b71d39209&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

When the people of Israel sat down with their family and friends for their High Holy Day dinners last year, nobody thought the year ahead would have been like this one.

Between the October 7 massacre, the ongoing captivity of more than 100 hostages in Gaza, the funerals of hundreds of soldiers, murdered hostages and civilians killed during the war, and the displacement of tens of thousands of residents, the country’s resilience has been stretched to its limits.

On Rosh Hashanah Eve 5785, the country is still under attack with rockets and missiles being fired from Lebanon on the North and Center. But after the year-long war of attrition with Hezbollah, the government and the army have taken the reins and are fighting back.

With the astonishing campaign to eliminate the upper echelon of Hezbollah’s leaders from Hassan Nasrallah on down and the unattributed exploding device attack that devastated an estimated 1,500 Hezbollah members, the terror group that has grown in size, confidence, and capability since the 2006 Second Lebanon War has been hit with a dizzying blow.

But, as we can see from the continued rocket fire, the only way to achieve a diplomatic solution that will enable the return of Israeli northerners to their homes is Israeli boots on the ground in southern Lebanon.

Lebanon incursion an issue of national consensus

It’s an issue of national consensus, with both government and opposition leaders expressing support for the IDF incursion into Lebanon, which began on Tuesday night.

The Democrats Party leader Yair Golan said, “A ground invasion of Lebanon is necessary to ensure that there is no Hezbollah presence south of the Litani River.” 

National Unity chairman MK Benny Gantz said that if a “strong and trustworthy” deal was not signed soon, Israel should invade Lebanon and “create facts on the ground” –  a sentiment supported by Yisrael Beytenu chairman MK Avigdor Liberman.

Former prime minister Naftali Bennett wrote, “Enough is enough. Every IDF soldier who crosses the border fence into Lebanese soil knows that he is doing so to protect the citizens of Israel… The entire nation stands behind you.”

And even the United States, which had cautioned against the invasion, seems to understand the necessity of the move.

---

---

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said after speaking to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that “we agreed on the necessity of dismantling attack infrastructure along the border to ensure that Lebanese Hezbollah cannot conduct October 7-style attacks on Israel’s northern communities.”

With all diplomatic initiatives to achieve those goals stymied throughout the year by Hezbollah, and with most of the world uncaring and apathetic that Israel’s North has been largely uninhabitable for nearly a year, it’s clear that Israel was left with no alternative but its current path of warfare.

For many Israelis, the High Holy Days will be fraught with extra tension and anxiety with soldiers risking their lives in battle – in Gaza and now in Lebanon. Families are on tenterhooks praying for their well-being, and the ongoing heartbreaking and infuriating saga of the hostages is constantly tearing away at the fabric of our society.

This is the time to garner strength, recognize our fight is righteous, and support each other as we’ve done for the last year. And it’s time to remember that this too shall pass.

If that’s difficult to see amid the fear, sirens, and thoughts of our brothers and sisters in the tunnels, we recommend that everyone go out and buy some unripe fruit. It may seem like the most mundane of chores, but it’s the supreme act of faith.

It signifies that we expect to remain alive and well in a couple days’ time to enjoy the delicious bounty. And it also symbolizes how things change, no matter how imperceptibly.

We at The Jerusalem Post wish the IDF success in its sacred mission to defeat the terror threat in Lebanon. And we wish our readers a year in which we see peace restored to the country, the homecoming of all of the hostages held in Gaza, the return of all residents of the North to their homes, and a plethora of unripe fruit purchases.

Shanah tovah u’metuka.

END

Israeli leaders react to the massive Iranian assault and declare that this is an act of war

(JerusalemPost)

‘Declaration of war’: Israeli leaders react to massive Iranian assault

Democrats chairman Yair Golan said that the missile attack was a “declaration of war” but said that Israel should not be hasty. 

By ELIAV BREUEROCTOBER 1, 2024 21:40

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Firan-news%2Farticle-822870&unitId=2900003088&userId=fc1f54a9-182e-48c4-af1c-0ddd1497d1d7&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241001_7fb3a3cb5c96870ecb7c409fae25013b71d39209&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israeli political leaders reacted to what they called a “declaration of war” by Iran on Tuesday night, as the Islamic Republic fired some 180 ballistic missiles into Israel as part of a massive aerial barrage.

National Unity MK Benny Gantz said, “The state of Israel has capabilities that were developed for years to strike Iran, and the government has [our] full backing to act with force and determination.”

Democrats chairman Yair Golan said that the missile attack was a “declaration of war” but said that Israel should not be hasty. 

Israel should “ensure that an attack against Iran should be coordinated with the Americans and regional forces in order for the response to be decisive, precise, and effective,” Golan said

end

ISRAEL/SYRIA

New Israeli Strike On Damascus Kills Several Civilians Amid Fears Of Regional War

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 01:45 PM

Israel on Wednesday has once again targeted Damascus – but which marks the first time Israel’s military has struck Syria since the Tuesday night major ballistic missile attack by Iran.

The fresh airstrike happened in broad daylight in a residential neighborhood on the outskirts of the capital, killing at least three civilians, according to state-run SANA. Another three were reported wounded.

Some unverified reports say that a multi-story residential building was hit. It is unclear what Israeli jets might have been targeting, but Israeli media often casts these operations as against ‘Iranian assets’.

Israeli jets often fire into Syria from over unguarded Lebanese airspace, also as Lebanon has no air force or anti-air missile systems to speak of. 

Such attacks have been growing in the last days and weeks in the context of the escalating war in Lebanon, despite the Syrian Army staying on the sidelines thus far.

Israel sees Damascus as a key enabler of the ‘pro-Iran/pro-Shia axis’ of Tehran-Baghdad-Beirut, given Syria has hosted Iranian and Hezbollah troops on its soil going back near the start of the Syrian proxy war of the past decade.

Tuesday had seen a major Israeli attack on the Mezzeh neighborhood of Damascus, resulting in the death a popular Syrian television anchor. State television had described in a statement—

…that it “mourns anchor Safaa Ahmad who was martyred in the Israeli aggression on the capital Damascus”.

The official SANA news agency earlier said “air defense systems are intercepting hostile targets for the third time tonight in the Damascus area”, using a phrase that usually refers to Israeli strikes.

Currently Israel is said to be planning a large-scale retaliation against Iran. There are growing fears this could spark all-out war in the region, which could draw in Syria.

JUST IN 🚨🇸🇾
Israel bombed a residential neighborhood in Syria's capital, Damascus. pic.twitter.com/GURSXzROGk

— Kevork Almassian🇸🇾🇦🇲 (@KevorkAlmassian) October 2, 2024

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s first words in the wake of the attack were “Iran made a big mistake tonight, and it will pay for it” and included the vow, “whoever attacks us — we will attack them.”

“The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. They will understand. We will stand by the rule we established: whoever attacks us, we will attack him,” Netanyahu continued.

Initial videos from Damascus appear to show that the Israeli strike was a large one:

#Syria: at least 2 dead following Israeli airstrike against a building in Mazzeh district in #Damascus.
Looks like a heavy strike.
Still no visual of the building itself. pic.twitter.com/Dp6Sq0lTk8

— Qalaat Al Mudiq (@QalaatAlMudiq) October 2, 2024

In any bigger Israeli military operation against Iran, Israel’s military is likely to strike out at Syria, and particularly areas deemed to have a concentration of Iranian or Hezbollah assets.

END

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

GLOBAL ISSUES

BRICS: BlackRock Secretly Prepares for US Dollar Collapse

Not likely a winner.

If Iran’s oil infrastructure is struck by Israel in retaliation with US and British support, Iran has threatened to shut down all oil exports in the region. The Houthi can do this on their own.

Then the USD will face real issues, especially if Saudi Arabia chooses to price oil in Yuan or based on a Yuan/Ruble/gold value fix. Because if this happens gold will obviously rise and the USD will fall in purchasing value causing oil prices to rise stressing the economies of the West more than is imagined. Oil can easily shoot to $150 per barrel or more simply because of supply constraints. As it is the eastern seaboard is paralyzed by a strike. The cost on a conservative basis is $5billion in lost revenue with unknown impact to essential goods. And there is no diesel fuel

headed for the eastern seaboard for this winter from Russia, which will have an impact this coming winter.
Whatever comes out of the BRICS meeting in Kazan mid month will be telling because there are more moves in play than what people see. Especially when one might imagine that Russia may not take so well to using its frozen assets in Europe to fund the Ukrainians in a proxy fight. And just might want to exercise its own surprise. And consideration might to be wise as to whether there are enough Ukrainians left to die even if funded. Sanitary losses are in excess of 2000 dead daily just on the Donbas conflict lines and just yesterday over 900 Ukrainians chose to surrender as opposed to dying where they stood. Every day over 2000 are wounded. One should expect the losses to exceed 2,500 shortly as less experienced Ukrainians face a more efficient meat grinder.
And as for America’s ability to do much do consider that in the the most recent hurricane disaster areas no pole based power transformers exist to relieve and rebuild because they have been cleaned out and sent to Ukraine. Poorly planned adventures without adequate supply chains already are killing Americans. Is Europe far behind?
Leadership today is pathetic and irresponsible.

https://watcher.guru/news/brics-blackrock-secretly-prepares-for-us-dollar-collapse

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

n memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, September 23-30, 2024

Actors John Ashton (C, Beverly Hills Cop), Drake Hogestyn (C, Days of Our Lives), Gavin Creel (48, C); dancer Cat Glover; rockers Paul Bakija (C, Reagan Youth), Brandon Stone (C, The Nadas); & more

Mark Crispin MillerOct 2

READ IN APP

UNITED STATES

‘Beverly Hills Cop’ star John Ashton dead at 76 — months after ‘Axel F’ premiere on Netflix

September 29, 2024

John David Ashton, the actor who starred opposite Eddie Murphy in “Beverly Hills Cop,” has died at the age of 76, reported TMZ on Sunday. A rep for Ashton told the outlet that he passed on Thursday in Ft. Collins, Colorado, after fighting cancer. The Springfield, Massachusettes native appeared in over 200 screen and stage productions during his 50-year career, including three out of four installments of “Beverly Hills Cop” beginning in 1984. His latest turn as Chief John Taggart, the straight man to Murphy’s wise-cracking Axel Foley, premiered on Netflix earlier this year. Judge Reinhold starred between the two men as the affable Detective Billy Rosewood.

Link

---

Upgrade to paid

---

Days of Our Lives superstar Drake Hogestyn (John) dies at 70

September 28, 2024

One of daytime’s most beloved and iconic stars, Days of Our Lives’ Drake Hogestyn (John Black), passed away on September 28, 2024, one day shy of his 71st birthday. In a statement shared via DAYS, the Hogestyn family wrote: “It’s with heavy hearts that we announce the passing of Drake Hogestyn. He was thrown the curve ball of his life when he was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, but he faced the challenge with incredible strength and determination. After putting up an unbelievable fight, he passed peacefully surrounded by loved ones.”

Link

Gavin Creel, Tony Award-winning actor, dead at 48 after battle with rare cancer

September 30, 2024

The Broadway community is mourning the loss of a bright star, Gavin Creel. The Tony winner died Sept. 30 at his Manhattan home following a battle with metastatic melanotic peripheral nerve sheath sarcoma, a rare and aggressive form of cancer, which he was diagnosed with in July, according to The New York Times. He was 48.

Link

Cat Glover, Prince’s ‘Sign O’ the Times’-era muse, dies at 60

September 25, 2024

Dancer-choreographer-singer Catherine “Cat” Glover, Prince’s onstage foil during his late ‘80s “Sign O’ the Times”/“Lovesexy” era, has died at age 60, according to a post on her official Facebook page. No cause of death was cited.

Link

Reagan Youth confirm death of guitarist Paul Bakija

September 27, 2024

Paul Bakija, better known by his stage name Paul Cripple, has died after a long battle with cancer. Bakija rose to prominence within the hardcore punk scene of New York during the 1970s as the guitarist and co-founder of the incredible punk group Reagan Youth, who helped to define the distinctive sound of New York hardcore during that period. The news of the guitarist’s death was broken on social media. Reportedly, while in hospital, Bakija was still playing and discussing new material for the band. His death is a huge loss for punk, hardcore, and alternative music.

No age reported.

Link

The Nadas drummer Brandon Stone dies after an 18-month battle with pancreatic cancer

September 24, 2024

The drummer for Des Moines-based alternative band The Nadas passed away after an 18-month battle with pancreatic cancer. Brandon Stone died on Monday, according to his wife, Morgan Stone. Stone said her husband “…went into respiratory distress early Sunday morning and succumbed to all the illnesses today. He just declined so quickly in the last 24-36 hours,” according to a post on his CaringBridge page, where Morgan Stone kept family and friends apprised of his treatment. Brandon Stone was diagnosed with stage 4 pancreatic cancer while on a spring break trip to Fort Collins, Colorado, in March 2023, according to a GoFundMe set up for his family. In early September, he went to the Anderson Cancer Center in Houston for advanced treatment, after playing two shows in Okoboji the weekend before. He also had played shows at the Iowa State Fair in August.

No age reported.

Link

NBA Hall of Famer Dikembe Mutombo dead at 58 after battle with brain cancer

September 30, 2024

Basketball Hall of Famer and eight-time NBA All-Star Dikembe Mutombo has died at the age of 58 following a battle with brain cancer. Mutombo, who grew up in the Democratic Republic of the Congo but moved to America at the age of 21, was selected fourth overall by the Denver Nuggets in the 1991 Draft. Mutombo revealed in October 2022 that he was undergoing treatment for a brain tumor, with a statement from the NBA asking for privacy for him and his family. The news of his death was announced in a statement by the NBA on Monday morning, whose commissioner Adam Silver said: ‘Dikembe Mutombo was simply larger than life.”

Link

Former NBA player Joe Wolf dies at 59

September 26, 2024

Joe Wolf, an assistant coach for the Wisconsin Herd – the Bucks’ G League affiliate — died unexpectedly Thursday, the Milwaukee Bucks announced. Wolf, 59, played for seven teams in an 11-year NBA career before becoming a coach.

No cause of death reported.

Link

ECW and ROH Security veteran “Jersey” Joe Wilchak dies

September 29, 2024

We are deeply saddened to report the passing of “Jersey” Joe Wilchak, a beloved figure in the world of professional wrestling. Mike Johnson of PWInsider confirmed that Wilchak, a former member of Atlas Security, passed away late Saturday evening after battling lung cancer. Wilchak played a vital role behind the scenes in ECW and Ring of Honor, providing security during some of the most memorable and intense events in wrestling.

No age reported.

Link

Greco-Roman National Team member Alan Vera, 33, has passed away

September 24, 2024

USA Wrestling was devastated to learn that one of its current Greco-Roman National Team members, Alan Vera of Guttenburg, N.J., passed away last night at age 33. Vera suffered a sudden cardiac arrest while playing soccer this past summer and had been hospitalized since then to be treated for his serious health challenges. Alan’s wife is Elena Pirozkhova, a two-time U.S. Olympian and World champion in women’s freestyle wrestling. They have an infant daughter, Alina.

Link

Ex-Cal Poly track and field star Shelby Daniele dies suddenly just months after graduating with master’s degree

September 27, 2024

A former track and field star has died suddenly – just months after graduating with a master’s degree. Tributes have been paid to Shelby Daniele, a former athlete at California Polytechnic State University. Her death was announced in a heartbreaking Instagram post on Thursday. Shelby, 23, was hailed as an “exceptional student-athlete” and an “incredible leader.” Her cause of death remains unknown.

Link

Former Cal Poly student files lawsuit against university, county over COVID mandates:

https://tinyurl.com/3s64mfbk

Madonna’s stepmom Joan Ciccone dies at 81 after ‘brief encounter with very aggressive cancer’

September 26, 2024

Traverse City, MI – Madonna’s stepmother, Joan Clare Ciccone, has died at the age of 81. Ciccone was married to the pop queen’s father, Silvio, for 58 years. “Joan Clare Ciccone passed away peacefully early in the morning of September 24th, 2024, after a brief encounter with a very aggressive cancer,” an online obituary stated.

Link

Ghana’s interior minister’s son, Emil Rosevelt Nii Quartey, passed away after short illness

September 26, 2024

The son of Ghana’s Interior Minister, Emil Rosevelt Nii Quartey, who was a pharmacology student at Pennsylvania State University in the U.S., has been reported dead after a short illness.

No age or cause of death reported.

Link

Penn State’s “vaccination” mandate:

https://tinyurl.com/bdf2zmyy

Editorial writer Nicholas Dupree, 31

September 23, 2024

It’s with the heaviest of hearts that I announce the passing of Nicholas Charles Dupree, long-time editorial contributor to ANN, This Week in Anime co-host, and the funniest guy I’ve ever met. Nick died suddenly on Sunday morning, September 22, at the age of 31, leaving behind an enviable wealth of critical reviews ripe with humor.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Two children “died suddenly”:

Camilla Mae Gullett, 3

September 30, 2024

DR PAUL ALEXZANDER

BLACK MAGA! I appeal to you with BLACK MAGA! Look, Trump made serious mistakes in first term, OWS & the Malone et al. gene vaccine was devastating and killed people, hiring decisions were BAD, but on

balance, in one year (year 3) he did more for USA than Obama did in 8 years, than Biden-Harris did in 4! Trump is our best, ONLY option & I ask you to put your work down on November 5th & vote for 45!

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 2

READ IN APP

Trump is the best option, I stand with him and a strong supporter…I worked for him, his administration in his first term, and know he is the best option, and we MUST vote him back! He needs to come back for a second shot with malice, vengeance, accountability, seeking punishment of all who did wrong!

Millions of illegals were let into USA to harm and rape and kill Americans and they have. By Biden, Harris, Obama, Mayorkas…We got to get Trump back in office to seal the border and deport mass. Deport all!

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

The Haitians are bringing in TB, tuberculosis, the illegals are bringing in serious diseases, I am an infectious diseases epidemiologist, Trump must seal the border…how can you bring in 50,000 Haitians to one place and drop them into one place and overwhelm them with TB…??? do you know how many diseases the Haitians bring in? TB in endemic in Haiti…a foci there!

I don’t care if you get angry with me, but these are the facts and I can say it, I ain’t cupping balls and I want no job…I want America fixed for the future…I want it safe.

Savage: ‘if you are a young male in USA, why would you go into the military and take orders from a fat lesbian telling you that you are no good? why? that is why they are losing recruits and cannot get the recruit numbers up”.

I agree with Savage…

I continue to argue that Trump’s campaign managers are subverting him! Have subverted him!

Stand with Trump, he made mistakes with COVID, with OWS, he fell for the lies from Fauci, Birx, Azar, Bourla, Moncef, all of them, lied and subverted him…he trusted them and implemented what they told him…so I plead, please put down the tools, leave the assembly line, leave the coal mine, leave the steel plant, leave the blue collar job on November 5th and go to the polls and vote, no matter how late…America needs you now! The nation is in crisis, the borders are destroyed, our culture is destroyed, our language is destroyed. We need Trump now!

Eddy, Edith, again, as Doc Savage would say, we need you now, Eddy, the trucker, head to the polls…one more time, as we did in 1940s to put down tools to save the world and USA…we ask you to put down the tools one more time…Trump needs you, the nation needs you, the world needs you…

This is not about a man though, Trump, it is not about Trump, it is about a nation…a nation we must save…Savage says Trump’s war against the enemies within…read that.

Stop the focus on you POTUS Trump, stop insulting, get disciplined, get back there…focus on borders, language, culture, only! Focus!

___

You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow. 

Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.

SLAY NEWS

EVOL

Republicans abandon Trump ally Kari Lake in key Arizona senate race – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

After six years of marathon news conferences, Mexico’s AMLO steps off the stage – EVOLRead more…Massive Arizona ‘GLITCH’ lets 218.000 voters to get into ballot without proof of citizenship – EVOLRead more…Melania Shares The Story of Her First Date With Donald… – EVOLRead more…OBSCENE: Giant Nude Statue of President Trump in Vegas – EVOLRead more…MLB Legend Pete Rose Dead At 83 – EVOLRead more…Israel goes in: IDF confirms boots on the ground in southern Lebanon – EVOLRead more…Pop-up exhibit? 43-foot naked Nevada Trump effigy vanishes after… – EVOLRead more…Judge Strikes Down Georgia’s ‘Heartbeat’ Abortion Law – EVOLRead more…

NEWS ADDICTS

Japan Issues Warning: ‘Self-Amplifying’ mRNA ‘Vaccines’ Will Trigger ‘Worldwide Disaster’Japan has warned against the dangers of “self-amplifying” mRNA Covid “vaccines,” raising the alarm that these new injections will “trigger a worldwide disaster.”READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH: Tim Walz said “I’ve become friends with school shooters”The weirdest thing Tim Walz said tonight, while he was trying to defend switching positions to support gun control, was that he “became friends with school shooters.”READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH: Tim Walz turned into a stumbling mess when confronted on his lie that he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen SquareTim Walz was confronted tonight on his lie that he was in Hong Kong during the Tiananmen Square massacres in China.READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH LIVE: JD Vance debates Tim Walz in CBS News Vice Presidential Debate at 9PM ETThe CBS Vice Presidential Debate tonight between Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz, aka Tampon Tim.READ THE FULL REPORT

WATCH: JD Vance corrects CBS moderator ‘fact-check’ and they CUT HIS MICThe CBS News moderator Margaret Brennan fact-checked JD Vance even though they aren’t supposed to do that.READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1072 UP 0.0007

USA/ YEN 144.77 UP 1.050 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA END HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW IMPLODES//YEN CARRY TRADE TRYING TO RE ESTABLISH

GBP/USA 1.3284 UP .0010

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3478 DOWN 0027 (CDN DOLLAR UP 27 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 248.77 PTS OR 8.16%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 1310.05 PTS OR 6.20%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .14%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY RED EXCEPT LONDON

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 248.97 PTS OR 8.06%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN 0.14%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 843.21POINTS OR 2.18%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2652.00

silver:$31.43

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 101.04 UP 11 BASIS POINTS FROM  TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.678%  UP 8 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.823% DOWN 2 AND / 100   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.9-7 UP 8 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.445 UP 9 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1070 UP 8 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR TUESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1053 DOWN .0012 OR 12 basis points

USA/Japan: 145.76 UP 2.041 OR YEN IS DOWN 204 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.085 UP 14 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0018 OR 22 BASIS pts  to 1.3476

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0185 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.0298)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.22 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.823

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from TUESDAY at  3.812% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.160 UP 8 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.648 UP 4  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2661.25

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.26

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 14.21 PTS OR 0.17%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 48.39 OR 0.25%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 0.32 PTS OR 0.01%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 63.70 OR 0.55%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 95.82.28 OR 1.04%

WTI Oil price  72.05 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  75.58 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  94.49 ROUBLE UP 1 AND  36/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1070 UP 8 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.085 UP 14 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.047 UP 10 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.826 UP 7

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1041 DOWN 0.0024 OR 24 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3264 DOWN 0.0010 OR 10 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.029 UP 6 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.828

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.34 UP 2.61 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3503 UP 0.0009 CDN dollar DOWN 9 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.47

Brent OIL:  74.31

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 3.7884

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.130%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 7 PTS AT  3.695

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.045 UP 7 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.823 UP 9 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 101.41 UP 48 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.21 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  94.89 DOWN 0 AND  96/100 roubles

GOLD  2,656.90 3:30 PM

SILVER: 31.78 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 39.42 PTS OR 0.92%

NASDAQ UP 29.28 PTS OR 0.15%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.75 DOWN 0.51 PTS OR 2.,65%

GLD: $245.66 UP 0.05OR 0.02%

SLV/ $29.00 UP 0.42 OR 1.47%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Bonds Drop, Dollar Pops As Stock Traders Brace For Payrolls

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 04:00 PM

US markets chopped around today after yesterday’s risk off tape as Geopolitics remain the focus, and while Chinese stocks rallied,  Goldman Sachs trading desk noted that for the first time in a week they’re seeing more balance in their China flows:

“Seeing both HF and LO sell tickets today across the complex.”

Certainly didn’t slow the upward trajectory for now (remember China is closed for Golden Week)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the US side, things were quieter… Small Caps lagged, Nasdaq led the gains but the majors traded in a narrow range (which is unexpected given the drop in gamma)…

We note that the S&P 500 is back within the post-Powell spike range…

Mag7 stocks are back down into the post-Powell squeeze range…

Source: Bloomberg

But the vol market readying itself for chaos on Friday as payrolls prints…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that ‘seasonally’, shit’s about to get real for vol markets…

Source: Goldman Sachs

Treasury yields were higher across the board today with the long-end lagging (2Y +3bps, 30Y +6bps). All yields are higher on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended its rebound, back up to the post-Powell spike on FOMC day…

Source: Bloomberg

…as JPY weakened, erasing all of Friday’s election panic bid…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended marginally lower on the day…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was monkeyhammered again with Bitcoin dumped back to FOMC-Day levels ($60,000)…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices pumped and dumped amid inventory data, further escalations in Israel/Lebanon, and OPEC+ headlines…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, despite the fact that we have crossed the month-/quarter-end rubicon, the plumbing in the financial services sewage remains a little clogged…

Source: Bloomberg

The last time this happened, the repo market blew up… just saying.

MORNING TRADING

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

ADP Employment Report Shows Strong Rebound In Jobs

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 08:36 AM

In the first major labor market indication since The Fed slashed rates by 50bps (because the economy is doing so well?), ADP’s Employment report showed a much bigger than expected increase in jobs (+143k vs +125k exp vs +103k prior)…

Source: Bloomberg

That was above all but one of the economists’ estimates…

Source: Bloomberg

Job creation showed a widespread rebound after a five-month slowdown. Only one sector, information, lost jobs. Manufacturing added jobs for the first time since April.

Wage growth continues to slow…Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers fell slightly in September to 4.7 percent. For job-changers the decline was greater, falling from 7.3 percent in August to 6.6 percent.

“Stronger hiring didn’t require stronger pay growth last month,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.

“Typically, workers who change jobs see faster pay growth. But their premium over job-stayers shrank to 1.9 percent, matching a low we last saw in January.”

So how will The Fed explain their next rate cut if jobs are re-accelerating?

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Housing Starts Are Tumbling As Completions Soar, It’s Very Recessionary

Tuesday, Oct 01, 2024 – 06:25 PM

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

The discrepancy between housing starts and completions is the largest since 1980. Let’s discuss…

Data from the Census Department, calculation and chart by Mish

The DotCom bust was unrelated to housing. Most recessions impact housing or housing busts lead to recession.

The single-family stats aren’t good, but they aren’t as bad.

Single Family Housing Starts Minus Completions

The next chart puts the discrepancy into proper perspective.

Housing Starts and Completions

Housing Starts Minus Completions Detail

The Strong Economy?

Fed Chair Jerome Powell put on a strong display during the FOMC press conference.

But if the economy was as strong as Powell let on, the Fed arguably should have not cut rates at all.

On September 19, I noted Existing Home Sales Decline for the 24th Time in 31 Months

From a year ago sales are down 2.5 percent. Sales are down 39 percent from the January 2022 high.

The Ominous Reason Continued Unemployment Claims Have Improved

Also, please note The Ominous Reason Continued Unemployment Claims Have Improved

The brief synopsis is unemployment benefits are expiring rapidly.

end

Panic-Buying Already Spreading As Dockworker Strike Gets Underway

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 12:05 PM

By Noi Mahoney of FreightWaves

As union dockworkers began striking against employers at East and Gulf Coast ports early Tuesday morning, reports of panic-buying at supermarkets almost immediately started spreading across social media.

Video clips posted by social media users on X and Facebook showed people rushing to buy water, toilet paper, paper towels and other items at supermarkets and retailers across the U.S. 

“Are people already panic buying because of the Port Strike? Here are the grocery shelves in the water section at my local Kroger this morning. I realize that we are probably also low on water due to the Helene aftermath in East Tennessee, but still not great to see this already,” photographer and author Denise Van Patten posted in a social media video clip on X.

Are people already panic buying because of the Port Strike? Here are the grocery shelves in the water section at my local Kroger this morning. I realize that we are probably also low on water due to the Helene aftermath in East Tennessee, but still not great to see this already… pic.twitter.com/bxP0QgygnC

— Denise Van Patten (@DeeVP) October 1, 2024

Micheal Coker posted on X, “Well the panic buying is in full swing in my little town in South carolina. Sam’s at 8:30 a.m., no water. Same at Walmart and grocery stores. Next will be toilet paper.”

Well the panic buying is in full swing in my little town in South carolina. Sam's at 830am no water. Same at walmart and grocery stores. Next will be TP. Get yours before it's sears catalog for everyone

— Michael Coker (@michaelcoker59) October 1, 2024

The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) is the union behind the strike against its United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) employers for a new master contract. The two groups negotiated back and forth up until late Monday night, when the union’s deadline for a strike expired at midnight.

Major issues on the bargaining table are wages, benefits and rules on port automation. The ILA said USMX’s latest reported wage increase proposal of 50% over six years of a new contract was rejected by its members.

The affected ports, represented by USMX, include three of the U.S.’s five busiest ports: the Port of New York and New Jersey, the Port of Savannah, Georgia, and Port Houston. 

Matthew Shay, president and CEO of the National Retail Federation, called on the Biden administration Tuesday to step in and help end the strike.

“A disruption of this scale during this pivotal moment in our nation’s economic recovery will have devastating consequences for American workers, their families and local communities,” Shay said in a news release. “After more than two years of runaway inflationary pressures and in the midst of recovery from Hurricane Helene, this strike will result in further hardship for American families.”

Shay urged the administration to prioritize the economy “and intervene immediately to prevent further hardship and deeper economic consequences.”

A prolonged strike could cause major disruption to the domestic supply chain, according to American Farm Bureau Federation Economist Daniel Munch.

“For international destinations, waterborne exports are vital to us farmers,” Munch said in a podcast on Thursday. “They make up over 75% of total U.S. agricultural export volume. The potential strike that we’re looking at would mainly disrupt containerized agricultural exports, which account for 30% of U.S. waterborne agriculture exports by volume. The remaining 70%, often grains and oil seeds, are shipped via bulk carriers, which are usually managed by independent workforces and will not be affected by the strike.”

He said U.S. farmers could be particularly vulnerable to a strike that lasts a week or more.

“The strike could have disastrous impacts on U.S. agriculture, depending on how long it lasts,” Munch said. “The disruption to overall agricultural trade is expected to be about $1.4 billion each week that a strike is in place. When we think about what commodities are at risk, nearly 80% of waterborne exports of poultry leave East Coast ports, 56% of raw cotton, 36% of red meat, 30% of dairy products and even 6% of soybeans all go through those ports, through containerized exports. Not having an outlet to move those goods will create supply surpluses domestically and reduce prices for farmers.”

The top retailers that could be affected by the work stoppage at the ports are Walmart, Ikea, Samsung and Home Depot, according to data from ImportGenius and Arbor Data Science.

Last year, Walmart led all U.S. retailers with the most imports to East and Gulf Coast ports. Officials for Walmart said they prepare for any potential disruptions to their supply chain.

“We prepare for unforeseen disruptions in our supply chain and maintain additional sources of supply to ensure we have key products available for our customers when and how they want them,” Jeffrey Essary, a global communications spokesperson for Walmart, told FreightWaves.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

SWAMP STORIES

KING REPORT

The King Report October 2, 2024 Issue 7339

Independent View of the News

Iran launched an estimated 193 missiles, including hypersonic ones, in a two-wave attack on Israel.  Iran hoped that the largest ballistic missile attack in history would overwhelm Israel’s Iron Dome and Arrow air defense systems.  Most of the missiles were shot down.  A Palestinian citizen died from falling debris.   US Navy destroyers, operating in the eastern Mediterranean, participated in the missile defense of Israel. Pentagon Spokesman Gen. Pat Ryder told reporters US destroyers shot down about a dozen missiles.  Only a few Iranian missiles hit the ground.   WH Security Advisor Jake Sullivan admitted, “This is a significant escalation by Iran.”  And it only 5 weeks to the US election!   US Secretary of State Tony Blinken, appearing forlorn, said ‘Iran’s attack is totally unacceptable.’ Reportedly some Iranian missiles targeted Dimona, Israel’s nuclear research facility.   Irani officials warned that if Israel attacks Iran, it will strike back even harder.  The IDF said it will launch powerful strikes throughout the Middle East soon.   @Apex_WW: Israel will have a “significant response” to Iran’s attack, an Israeli official tells ABC News. “What Iran has suffered so far is only a promo,” the official said.   @ElectionWiz: The WSJ reports that Israel sent ‘clear messages’ to Iran that it would respond to any hit on Israeli territory, and that it ‘specifically said it would directly hit Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities’.   @Osint613: Netanyahu: Iran made a very big mistake, and they will pay for it. Just like Sinwar, Deif, and Nasrallah underestimated the consequences, it seems the IRGC doesn’t fully understand the reality either. They will soon learn a very painful lesson.  https://x.com/Osint613/status/1841224516535726217   Now Bibi has the excuse to provoke regime change in Iran and restore the previous friendly relationship between Israel and Iran, which is Persian not Arab.  Plus, the domestic situation in Iran is highly favorable to a regime change, which could take time.   @jenvanlaar: I’m hearing a different tone from the military experts on the news right now about Israel compared to a few months ago or a year ago, and it tracks with what I’m hearing from my own military sources. Instead of urging caution and deliberation, the experts are saying it’s time for this to come to a conclusion, that Netanyahu’s likely aim is to take out Iran’s Supreme Leader and dismantle the entire Islamist infrastructure, and that if we’re not going to help them to that, they’ll do it alone.     Get prepared for this new world. Israel is not going to let up. And watch out for the whackjobs who are rushing in to fill the power vacuum, especially the Turkish leader.   @andrewklavan: I hope Israel can save Western civilization before Western civilization can stop them.   US officials quietly backed Israel’s military push against Hezbollah The decision to focus on Hezbollah sparked division within the U.S. government (Obamaites)…       Hochstein, McGurk and other top U.S. national security officials are describing Israel’s Lebanon operations as a history-defining moment — one that will reshape the Middle East for the better for years to come.  The thinking goes: Israel has obliterated Hezbollah’s top command structure in Lebanon, severely undercutting the group’s capabilities and weakened Iran, which used Hezbollah as a proxy and power projector…  https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/30/us-israel-military-hezbollah-00181797   Fox’s @BillMelugin_: In an Op-Ed (Foreign Affairs) written by US Secretary of State Blinken, which was published today, Blinken writes: “The Biden administration’s strategy has put the United States in a much stronger geopolitical position today than it was four years ago.” (You can’t make this up!) https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/antony-blinken-americas-strategy-renewal-leadership-new-world   Antony Blinken mocked over essay touting the Harris-Biden admin’s foreign policy strategy published same day Iran attacks Israel https://trib.al/yJVqq2G   Gold soared; bonds rallied sharply; and equities sank in early NYSE trading Tuesday.  Fangs rallied modestly early on safe haven buying.  But Apple fell 3.12% (9:53 ET) on concern about iPhone demand. Microsoft fell 2% by 9:55 ET; and Broadcom was -2.32%.  This turned the NY Fang+ Index negative.   Apple stock falls as Barclays says iPhone 16 experiencing ‘weak demand’ Apple Inc may have reduced its iPhone 16 production orders by approximately 3 million units at a key semiconductor component supplier for the December quarter, Barclays analysts said Tuesday, suggesting “weak demand” for the newest model… the delayed rollout of Apple Intelligence, particularly in the Chinese language not expected until 2025, may dampen enthusiasm for the iPhone 16 in China… https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/apple-stock-falls-as-barclays-says-iphone-16-experiencing-weak-demand-3642629   ESZ traded mostly lower but sideways from the Nikkei opening until they broke down at 9:29 ET on reports that Iran was about to launch ballistic missiles at Israel.  After hitting a daily low of 5745.00 at 11:11 ET, the manipulation for the European close commenced.  ESZs jumped to 5767.50 at noon ET.   After Iran launched its missiles (12:36 ET), ESZs fell to 5735.75 at 13:21 ET.  Then someone thought it would be cool to manipulate ESZs higher.  ESZs soared to 5783.75 at 14:30 ET.  Traders and investors that did NOT want to be long ahead of Israel retaliation dumped stuff.  ESZ sank to 5757.75 at 15:58 ET.   @RealEJAntoni: Right on cue: federal debt explodes $143 billion on last day of fiscal year, setting new record high of $35.465 trillion – that’s $2.3 trillion above the end of the previous fiscal year, and it’s only going higher… https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1841208262181453942   @RealEJAntoni: The jump in Aug job openings was fueled by a surge of gov’t job openings of 103k – that was a 12% increase in a single month; good to know someone is still hiring and at least one “industry” is still growing… (trendline shows pre-pandemic growth rate) https://t.co/cXGQXWR0Th   @charliebilello: S&P 500 is up 20.8% in the first 9 months of 2024, the best start to a year since 1997 and the best start to a presidential election year in history.   Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rebounded after the Irani missile attack on impact buying of ESZs.  USZs rallied.   Negative aspects of previous session Major equity indices, ex-the DJUA, declined. Gold, precious metals, and oil rallied sharply.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session How will Israel respond?  How far will the looming Israel-Iran War go?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5715,92 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5757.73; 5681.28   At Least 6 Killed and Several Injured in Tel Aviv Shooting — The authorities described the shooting, which took place on a light rail train, as a terrorist attack by two Palestinian gunmen. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/01/world/middleeast/israel-tel-aviv-shooting.html   Erdogan says Israel will be stopped ‘sooner or later’  https://t.co/GLzg9HSnep   Union port workers are demanding a ban on automation.  Port of LA executive director Gene Seroka weighs in: “This discussion of robotics has to come with job commitments.” https://t.co/BVgxClILtO   Dockworkers strike threatens to reignite food inflation, spark holiday shortages for US consumers https://t.co/2UmrWgPRbE   Wait!  The Fed assured the world that inflation is under control and a jumbo rate cut was warranted!   @mualphaxi: Harold Daggett, the ILA boss who pledged to “cripple” the United States, owns a 76-foot yacht, a Bentley, and gets paid over $900,000.  He was acquitted on RICO charges after the main witness against him, mobster Lawrence Ricci, was found decomposing in a car trunk in New Jersey. https://x.com/mualphaxi/status/1841148551646286258   WSJ Editorial Board: Biden’s Longshoreman Strike – He wanted Big Labor to have more power. He’s got it—as the union shuts down East and Gulf Coast ports. https://www.wsj.com/opinion/international-longshoremens-association-strike-ports-labor-union-president-biden-a586363d   CBS announced Trump has withdrawn from an interview with its “60 Minutes.”  In the past, “60 Minutes” has treated DJT shabbily.  The move also implies that Team DJT thinks DJT is well ahead.  DJT cites Leslie Stahl challenging him about the authenticity of Hunter’s laptop and a tiff over crime stats.  Trump said he wants an apology from “60 Minutes” over their discrediting of Hunter’s laptop. https://x.com/ECampbell360/status/1841261554563498169   Trump sweeps battlegrounds in latest polls https://trib.al/6bTjA9R   Kamala Harris slammed for ditching hurricane season preparedness briefings https://nypost.com/2024/10/01/us-news/kamala-harris-slammed-for-skipping-hurricane-season-preparedness-briefings-led-by-mike-pence/   Today – There is no reason to be long equities while an Israel-Iran War is unfolding.  Only those that believe in ‘Fed policy uber alles’ will be tempted to get long.  Day traders will play for the usual intraday patterns and tendencies.  However, saner angels will wait & watch, which will thin out the markets.   ESZs are -7.00; NQZs are -39.50; and USZs are +8/32 at 20:35 ET.   Expected economic data and events: ADP Employment Change for Sept 123k; Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack 9 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Musalem 10:05 ET, Fed Gov. Bowman 11:00 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 12:15 ET   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5538; 100-day MA: 5478; 150-day MA: 5364; 200-day MA: 5239 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,834; 100-day MA: 40,091; 150-day MA: 39,637; 200-day MA: 39,235 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5708.75 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5356.01 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5604.71 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5767.30 triggers a sell signal   @bennyjohnson: DOOCY: “It has been well documented over the last couple months that President Biden and Vice President Harris have put out the word publicly to the ayatollah in Iran ‘Don’t’, and now we know that the ayatollah does not listen to them.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1841218467665453455   Fox’s @JacquiHeinrich: For a second time this week, Harris ignores reporter questions following hastily-scheduled remarks on the hurricane impacts, now Iran.  Harris is going full Biden mode lately.   @bonchieredstate: Why is Kamala Harris leading FEMA meetings? I’ve been assured as vice president that she has no power and is not responsible for anything. (It was a photo-op that backfired!) https://x.com/bonchieredstate/status/1841090787498418511   @TrumpWarRoom: TRUMP: “It is no surprise that Iran desperately wants Kamala Harris to be President– Because they know as long as she is in power, they can take advantage of America — That’s why they target me.” https://t.co/3memI17p0U   @joma_gc: The White House is asking all citizens to remain calm as Kamala decides what accent she’ll be using to brief the country on Iran’s missile attack.   @bennyjohnson: NEW TRUMP AD: Kamala is weak and world leaders know it (“America doesn’t need another TikTok performer.  We need the strength that will protect us.”) https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1841180295405728067   Walz’s false Tiananmen Square claim ‘part of a broader pattern of inaccuracies,’ AP reports (Are ‘inaccuracies, something like lies?  Asking for a friend.) https://trib.al/9Mn3EH7   @ChuckCallesto: After sending 175 BILLION to Ukraine and handing out thousands of dollars a month to ILLEGALS, Biden tells the American people to help fund the recovery of Hurricane Helene in NC… https://x.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1840966490649960714   @LeadingReport: Trump has made significant gains in New York and is outright winning the Independent vote and receiving 40% of the Black vote, according to a new Rasmussen poll.   @seanmdav: Mitch McConnell represents a large swath of Appalachia. In the last week, @LeaderMcConnell has tweeted about the U.N., Israel, Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Hezbollah, and defense spending. But not a word about Helene, or North Carolina, or flooding, or help for dying Appalachians.   @elonmusk; The same people who demanded that you have a vaccine ID to travel are now demanding that there be no ID for voting.     Happy Rosh Hashanah!

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING CHARLES NENNER

From a Bunker in Israel, American Empire is Over – Charles Nenner

From a Bunker in Israel, American Empire is Over – Charles Nenner

By Greg Hunter On October 1, 2024 In Market AnalysisNo Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Renowned geopolitical and financial cycle expert Charles Nenner has been warning of a huge war cycle.  The Iran missile attack in Israel that rained down 180 missiles on the Holy land, “is just the beginning,” according to Nenner.

Of course, America and everybody else will be involved in this war, and Nenner says don’t expect America to come out on top.  Nenner says, “I don’t know how big this war is going to be because everybody is going to be involved.  Israel is not going to sit on its hands like last time because this cannot continue.  I guess Israel will go for the enrichment of the uranium places and attack Iran whenever they are ready. . . . I don’t vote in the United States because I am Dutch, but if Trump were in, this would be over in an hour.”

When it comes to the 2024 November election, Nenner says, “I think the media is doing a great job.  So, I am not sure that Trump is going to win.  I really have no mercy for America anymore if they vote for Kamala.  It’s just the end of an empire already.  Even if Trump wins, I don’t think he can fix what needs to be fixed because the Biden government put all kinds of people in positions that are going to be there for a while.  I watch Congress and see who the Biden Administration brings forward for new judges, and I have no words for it.  It’s ridiculous.  I don’t even know how to fix the United States anymore. . . . According to the cycles the United States is finished.  This war now will probably turn into a world war, and the problem is they (US) will have to fight Russia, China, North Korea and Iran, and they have no chance to win. . . . Nobody will have to invade the United States.  They will just finish them off with rockets from the air.  It is a hopeless situation.”

Nenner famously said several months ago, “If you know winter is coming, you can buy a winter coat.  Trump is the winter coat.”  So, can Trump still be the winter coat America needs to survive?  Nenner says, “I don’t think he can.  It’s too late.”

On the markets, Nenner thinks there is going to be a stock market crash that will be equal to or greater than the Great Depression market crash in 1929.  Nenner says, “We are telling our clients to get out of stocks. . . . We have zero stocks.”

Nenner also thinks gold is the place to be for the next three years.  Nenner thinks gold is going much higher.  On interest rates, Nenner says they are going higher too, and real estate and bonds are going lower.  This is the longer term trend in Nenner’s cycle.

When will this market crash come?  Nenner says, “It’s still going to take half a year or a year until everybody realizes how bad the situation is compared to the BRIC countries.  The dollar is not going to be the major currency.  Nixon stopped backing it by gold, and Saudia Arabia stopped backing it by oil.  It is not backed by anything.  So, why would you trust the dollar?

There is much more in the 30-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned cycle analyst and financial expert Charles Nenner for 10.01.24.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here)

After the Interview:

SEE YOU ON THURSDAY//