GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $8,95 TO $2659.40

SILVER PRICE UP $0.69 TO $32.16

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2656.90

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.05

Bitcoin morning price:$60,864 UP 303 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $61,048 up 184 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN $9.15TO $996.80

Palladium price; DOWN $14.00 TO $1002.40

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3600.90 UP 11.02 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,600.83CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 3 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2024.20 UP 18.65 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2024.20 RITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 3/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,408.87 UP 2.60 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.408.87 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 3 //.2024)

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END

EXCHANGE: COMEX

---

JPMorgan stopped 0/29

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 29 NOTICES FOR 2900 OZ  or  0.0901 TONNES

total notices so far: 10,840 contracts for 1,084000 Oz (33.716 tonnes)

FOR  OCT

SILVER NOTICES: 14 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.070 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1155 for 5.775 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 69 CENTS AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 467.555 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1763 CONTRACTS TO 146,520 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR FAIR  GAIN OF $0.23 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 3338 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. //. WE HAD ZERO STRONG SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE..  WE HAD A HUGE 1575 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 353 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 3338 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 353 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.30 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAVE A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 3338 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE 1575 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 5500 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 5.825 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 5.825 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 353 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 652 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 3 DAYS, total 3226 contracts:   OR 16.130 MILLION OZ  (1075 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  16.130 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 16.130 MILLION OZ

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1763  CONTRACTS WITH OUR FAIR GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS:1575 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF  5.355 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 5500 OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 5.825 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 3378 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 353 CONTRACTS (USED FOR TODAY’S RAID),//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX

/ ZERO ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT   (353 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//

WE HAD  14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 70,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3,121 OI CONTRACTS  TO 529,986 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED XX CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (3121 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $20.05 IN PRICE /WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2500 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  34.121TONNES+ 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 54.295 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR  $20.05 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1045  OI CONTRACTS (3.25 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE WEEDNESDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED LATE WEDNESDAY WITH THEIR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE!

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2076 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 529,986

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1045 CONTRACTS  WITH 3,121 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2076 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1045 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 973 CONTRACTS, WE HAD SOME LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (2076 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 3,121 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1045 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2500 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 34.121 TONNES. + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 54.295 TONNES

 / 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 973 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 16,010CONTRACTS OF 1,601,000 OZ OR 49.79TONNES IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5336 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 3 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  49.79 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  49.79 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.40% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 49.79 TONNES

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED  1763 CONTRACTS OI  TO 146,520 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1575 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1575 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1575 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1763 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1575 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 3338 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 16.690 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.23 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED

//Hang Seng CLOSED

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 743.30 PTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.05%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0434 Oil DOWN TO 71.72dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.09 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A GOOD SIZED 3,121 CONTRACTS TO 529,986 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $20.05 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST CONSIDERABLE IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2076). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS ON TUESDAY WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY, WHAT ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! TODAY WE REVERTED BACK TO ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY LAST WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEK AS A MAJOR BUYER OF PHYSICAL IS OFF DUE TO GOLDEN WEEK.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE SEPT 2024/BEGINNING OF OCTOBER. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE LOWER PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH WEDNESDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE WITH SOME LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MAJOR SHORT COVERING AT LOWER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST ESPECIALLY YESTERDAY’S LOSS IN OI.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2076 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  2076 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2076 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1,045 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2076 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD LOSS OF 3121 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS LOSS  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $20.05 WEDNESDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SMALL SIZED 973 CONTRACTS,  WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   OCT (54.295 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 44 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 34.121 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =54.295 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY  $20.05/)//AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME SPECULATOR LONGS AS ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE A FAIR LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.,WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TUESDAY EVENING

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 3.250 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2500 OZ QUE JUMP………………..

//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 34.121TONNES.+ 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

NEW STANDING FOR OCT 34.121 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 54.217 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR  LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $20.05

WE HAVE REMOVED 574 CONTRACTS  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1045 CONTRACTS OR 104,500 OZ (3.25 TONNES)

confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 135,173 contracts poor

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

OCT 3 OCT  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	64334.151 OZ Manfra; 2000 kilobars brinks 1 kilobar           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	29 notice(s) 2900 OZ 0.0901 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	130contracts    1300 OZ 0.4043 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	10,840 notices 108,400oz 33.716 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits:0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits 0 oz

withdrawals: 2

i) out of Malca: 64,302.00 oz or 2,000 kilobars

ii) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz (1 kilobar)

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 64,334.151 oz

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 159 contracts having LOST 1176 contracts.

We had 1201 contracts filed yesterday so we GAINED 25 contracts on our two exchanges or 2500 oz underwent a huge 2500 oz queue jump.

NOVEMBER LOST 41 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1329

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 3362 CONTRACTS TO 453,314

We had 29 contracts filed for today representing 2900 oz  

This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 29 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (10,840x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT(159 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (29 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,097,000 OZ  OR 34.121 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, NEW TOTAL = 54.295 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (10,811 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT  (1335OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1201 x 100 oz which equals  1,097,000 oz (34.121TONNES + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY = 54.295 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 54.295 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,662,231.765  oz 51.70tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,048,313.722 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,828,206.279/// 243,49tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,220,102.447 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,166,104 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.791 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 3 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE OCT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	782,929.117 oz Asahi Brinks Delaware HSBC .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,213,899.1403 oz ASAHI Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)	14 CONTRACT(S)    (0.070 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	10 contracts  (50,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1155 Contracts  (5.775 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  2 customer deposits:

i) INTO Delaware: 4,993.200 oz

ii) Into ASAHI 1,209,001.940 oz

total customer deposits 1213,899.140 oz

We had 4 withdrawals

i) Out of ASAHI 604,041.200 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 97,190.57 oz

iii) Out of Delaware 971.017 oz

iv) Out of HSBC 80,727.33 oz

total withdrawal 782,929.117 oz OZ

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/305.448million  or 44.18%

adjustment 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.864MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305.448million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 24 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 31 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 42 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 5500 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 32 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 484

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 1251 CONTRACTS UP TO 126,635 CONTRACTS

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 14 for 0.070 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 73m764 GOOD

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1155 x 5,000 oz = 5.775 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (24 and the number of notices served upon today 14 x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month:  1155 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(24) number of notices served upon today minus (14)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the SEPT  contract month equates to 5.825 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 5.825 million oz.

There are 70.067 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

 OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES

AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 874.82 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ

SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ

AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ

AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 469,198MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

The inescapable mathematics of a debt trap

Stagnating economies together with high government debt loads inevitably create funding crises and debt traps. Nowhere is this problem more destructive than for the fiat dollar.

Alasdair MacleodOct 3∙Paid

READ IN APP

It’s not just the dollar. Economies in the Eurozone and the UK have insufficient growth to support their colossal mountains of government debt. In this article I explain the mechanics of a debt trap. And how a combination of rising interest rates reflecting growing risk and stagnating economies bring on debt traps, leading to yet higher interest rates making the situation even worse.

My memory is of the sterling crisis in 1975/76, when the IMF bailed out the British government, and the Bank of England had to fund medium-term debt with gilt coupons of over 15%. The Labour government was forced to cut its spending to resolve the situation. So I have a question for today: who is going to bail out first the US Government, then the UK and Eurozone, and who is going to force them to cut spending on the edge of a recession?

Only the markets will do it: crisis first, and only if we are lucky the solution follows. Read on…

Introduction

Understanding debt, the counterpart of credit, is of increasing importance. For example, it is the other side of bank credit, and when banks become overleveraged there comes a time when their managers become concerned about the risk to their balance sheets. In any economy, the risk is conventionally understood to be in private sector lending, and a recession is part and parcel of the withholding of further credit leading to corporate and personal insolvencies. Under these circumstances, banks redirect their balance sheet assets from private sector loans and corporate bonds to government debt, which is seen as the risk-free asset in any currency.

There are signs that with respect to some jurisdictions these views are evolving with the outlook for government debt being examined more closely. There is also little confidence in economic prospects for all the major economies, including China, impacting government budgets. That the world’s exporter is faltering is a signal that consumer demand in her major markets is on the wane. Another major exporter, Germany, is certainly in trouble.

Given mounting government debts, debt is a problem no longer confined to private sectors which have suffered from the generally unexpected rise in interest rates over the last few years. And governments in the advanced economies appear to have little sense of the debt trap being sprung upon them too. As well as the rate of nominal GDP growth, the interest rate matters and a combination of slowing economies moving into recession together with high interest rates are a lethal combination for government finances.

More specifically than growth in GDP, what matters is the growth in tax revenue required to fund the pace at which the combination of debt and interest is being rolled over. In Europe and the UK, tax rates are already so high that attempts to obtain more revenue by increasing them will almost certainly lead to lower revenues due to the Laffer curve effect. The US is probably not at that point yet tax-wise, but economic stagnation has the same effect.

The following chart illustrates government indebtedness relative to GDP for the G7 nations and also relative to private sector GDP, which produces the revenue for governments upon which debt credibility depends.

Various papers have been written on this problem, all concluding that a debt trap occurs when the rate of GDP growth falls to below the rate at which the cost of funding the debt increases. But it is surely more correct to compare the rate of increase of tax revenues with the rate of increase of the debt: do tax revenues increase more rapidly than the debt, or does the compounding debt increase more rapidly than revenues?

How did governments cut the debt-to-GDP ratio following WW2?

Much of the complacency over government debt levels arises from the fact that high WW2 debt levels were reduced over the following two decades to manageable levels, fuelling a belief that it can be done again. America’s government debt to GDP in 1946 peaked at 120%, below current peace-time levels, falling to 35% in 1971 when Nixon suspended the Bretton Woods Agreement. The relevant figures are shown in the table below.

The increase in gross Federal debt was 142%, but the increase in GDP was 483%. And the increase in revenue, which ultimately pays for the debt was slightly more than the increase in GDP. Therefore, revenue growth outpaced debt growth nearly three and a half times, leading to a significant reduction in debt to GDP. This was how the war debt relative to GDP was reduced, before the discipline of gold on government spending and interest rates was finally abandoned.

The common belief that debt reduction was due to financial repression, that is to say the cost of funding was suppressed by central bank interest rate policies and yield curve control, is incorrect. To understand why, we need to address another point. And that is what happened to prices. The dollar and through the dollar all other currencies were tied to gold at $35 for the whole 25 years, but the CPI for Urban Consumers rose from 22 to 40 — nearly doubling at an average annual rate of about 0.7%. Yet, measured in gold there should have been no inflation, because the expansion of economic activity under a gold standard is expected to lead to better manufacturing processes, product improvements, and a tendency towards falling prices.

The problems with a CPI measure are many. Logically, there is no such thing as a statistical measure of price inflation, the subjectivity of which has been clearly demonstrated in more recent decades by wildly differing estimates. Government intervention in the economy distorts outcomes, and the savings rate fluctuated but not enough to explain the disparity between a steady gold standard and a statistical outcome.

A cleaner price comparison is found in commodity prices. Oil was pegged at $2.57 per barrel increasing to $3.56 which held until 1973: that’s a 38% increase compared with a near doubling of US consumer prices. Copper was similarly more stable priced in gold, as the next chart demonstrates.

That both copper and oil did increase in price by either measure in the post war years can be explained by demand increasing for these commodities more rapidly than supply. But this does not get round the fact that with the dollar supposedly acting as a gold substitute at a fixed value of $35 per ounce there is an unexplained disparity in consumer price performance. The answer is that the Bretton Woods system ended up suppressing the value of gold, evidenced by the selling down of US gold reserves from 21,828.2 tonnes in 1949 representing over 70% of global official reserves and 45% of total above-ground stocks, to 9,069.7 tonnes, less than 25% of global official reserves and only 12% of above-ground stocks in 1971.

The suspension of the Bretton Woods Agreement in August 1971, far from removing gold from the monetary system, had the effect of releasing gold from its increasing suppression by US economic policies in the post-war years. It is important to understand this relationship in its proper context, now that in this new millennium US Government debt is spiralling out of control.

This millennium is different from the post-war years

The next table replicates the first table in this article, but for the 24-years of this current millennium.

Here, we can see that gross debt is soaring at a far faster rate than GDP, and even more so measured in the Federal Government revenues which are behind the sustainability of the debt. With the increase of revenue only covering 37% of the debt increase, the US Treasury is in a classic debt trap; a fact which is increasingly recognised by foreign central bankers who are getting out of dollars and into gold.

The second element of the debt trap — soaring interest rates

So far, we have seen that in the first 24 years of this new century the increase in tax revenue has failed lamentably to keep pace with the increasing growth of debt. For the US Government, this has not mattered too much while the Fed was able to suppress interest rates even to the zero bound and therefore contain the compounding cost of funding. Additionally, with the dollar being everyone’s reserve currency, foreign buyers were always demanding them and investing in the “risk-free” status of US Treasury debt. It is this combination which has extended the dollar’s life as a fiat currency, but pushing it even further into a debt trap waiting to be sprung by higher interest rates.

Interest rate suppression is no longer true, at least not to the degree of recent years. The sharp rise in interest rates and bond yields over the last thirty months have only partially been corrected in the belief that inflation has been brought under control. This is an error, because the inflationary consequences of a $2+ trillion budget deficit and a decline in the savings rate continue to feed into a falling purchasing power for the currency. And geopolitical factors encourage members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and BRICS, representing the majority of the world’s population, to reduce their dollar exposure as well.

Both these factors are feeding into an inevitable funding crisis for the US Government, as foreign buyers of US Treasury debt stay away, and in some cases are actually selling. And instead of interest rates and bond yields being under the control of the Fed, they will be exposed to the brutal consequences of falling market demand. A buyers’ strike by foreign investors at the margin is already forcing the US Treasury to fund itself in short-term T-bills with auctions for longer maturities being generally avoided. Increasingly, the $35.4 trillion debt mountain sees longer maturities being replaced by T-bills as well. The whole maturity structure of US Treasury debt is changing, and it is not for the good.

Realistically, the yield curve should change from being negative to pricing in maturity risk. But there is a further problem: in a debt trap the higher the funding cost the less attractive an investment proposition becomes because the compounding pace at which the debt rises accelerates.

The consequences of recession

The government statistics recording the state of the economy are bunkum. The decline in purchasing power for the dollar is not adequately reflected in the government’s CPI, which means that in real terms the private sector is getting poorer and talk of a robust economy as stated by Jay Powell recently is misplaced.

Consequently, adjusted by the reality, which is closer to John Williams’ Shadowstats estimates of CPI at anything up to 12%, in real terms the US economy is indeed in recession, which will get even deeper as interest rates are forced higher, reversing foreign investor demand leading to a declining dollar. The next chart of the dollar’s trade-weighted index with a death cross on the moving averages confirms how confidence in the dollar is already eroding.

The consequences of recession for the US Government will be lower tax revenues and higher welfare costs, increasing the budget deficit even further. Driven by neo-Keynesian economic advice, the government’s instinct will be to reflate. In other words, to increase the deficit even further in an attempt to turn the economy round. But that would make the problem worse. In the absence of massive spending cuts, the US Government is trapped with no way out, other than to squeeze the private sector out of bank credit by its own credit demands, intensifying the recession and therefore the collapse in the currency’s purchasing power.

For now, US and global markets are concentrating on the US presidential election while ignoring these mounting dollar problems. By selling dollars in their reserves to buy gold, it would appear that foreign central banks are the principal category of holder which has been anticipating this looming crisis. But once the presidential election is over, the resetting of the debt ceiling is slated for 2 January. The debt ceiling farce can only serve to accentuate the funding crisis and warn of the debt trap in the minds of America’s foreign creditors, as well as for growing numbers of US investing institutions aware of global sentiment.

Therefore, all else being equal, after the election on 5 November we should expect the US Government’s funding outlook to come under increasing scrutiny, along with those of other G7 nations. We probably have only one month to get out of dollar credit before the outlook for it begins to deteriorate at an increasing pace. The interest rate and bond yield outlook will then look to be for them to be rising rather than falling as currently expected. The consequences for financial assets, especially overvalued equities, will be devastating.

The wisdom of prescient central bankers, who are already getting out of dollars and other fiat currencies and hoarding gold in their reserves will then be appreciated more widely. It is not gold going up, but the fiat dollar and all its dependent G7 currencies going down. Surely, we are seeing the early stages of the demise of the post-Bretton Woods fiat currency system.

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/KINESIS 1

Warren Buffett, Dave Ramsey, & John Maynard Keynes Are Wrong!

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 06:25 PM

Authored by Mark Thornton via The Mises Institute,

This week, we explain how Warren Buffett, Dave Ramsey, and John Maynard Keynes are wrong about gold.

John Maynard Keynes, the Godfather of Keynesian economics, famously called gold the “barbarous relic,” a term he used to denigrate the gold standard and to disparage the use of gold as money.

Specifically, he hated the constraint the gold standard placed on government spending. If the government prints too much currency that can’t be redeemed in gold, then it must cut back its spending, bringing on a recession or depression, or face runaway price inflation in the economy.

Following in Keynes footsteps, investment whiz kid Warren Buffett, son of the great investor and Congressman, Howard Buffett, has famously disparaged gold as an investment, saying it has “no yield.” He otherwise has voiced no coherent political philosophy, like his father.

Hotshot Radio voice, Dave Ramsey, has likewise sharply disparaged gold as an investment, saying it’s just a “shiny, shiny rock,” with no yield, and is a terrible investment.

Gold in Society

Of course, in this “age of inflation,” people like Buffet junior and Ramsey are heralded for their calls for prudence in what otherwise is a financial landscape warped by hedonistic government policies of spending, borrowing without limits, and printing fiat money by the trillions.

I will show here how wrong all three men are on all the investment points and even how contradictory their views on gold are, but I must emphasize that I am not offering any kind of investment advice here! This is just analysis and commentary on the current scene.

This hatred and disparagement of gold as money and the gold standard has become standard dogma of and a pillar of the modern state.

In complete contrast, regular people in society still instinctively see gold as an emblem of excellence more than a half century since the last vestige of the gold standard was taken away from us.

Gold medals represent the very best achievements; silver medals represent the next level down.

Teachers and parents still use the “star system” with gold or yellow stars representing the highest achievement. From babies to high school students, gold stars are still an inducement to effort and achievement. 

Later on in life, gifts of jewelry are used to convey our affection and admiration. First, it might be things like friendship rings, but we all know that gifts of gold jewelry are an attempt to convey a high level of esteem by the gift giver. When the Wise Men visited the baby Jesus they brought gifts of gold, along with the precious perfume-medicinal compounds of frankincense and myrrh. 

Even marketers of companies and company products—where there is a profit and loss prime directive—strive to be able to claim that their company, their product, or their service is “the gold standard” in their industry, or with their customers.

When humans started to see the world in terms of its elements, humanity took off! The Bronze Age: society, culture, religion, buildings, science, etc.—gold was the rarest and most precious, even cherished, of them all. Human history is replete with gold exclamations whether it is culture, religion, art, and now technology and even medicine! The greatest age of peace and prosperity is the gold standard era of the 19th century!

Investment Comparisons

First of all, gold is not primarily an investment. Gold and silver are monies, the most advanced forms of money for thousands of years before the “age of inflation.”

Technically, gold and silver are not money now, but only because they were forced out of that role by the state. Gold shackles the state; paper money unleashes it from its golden cage. Murray Rothbard explains this in his What Has Government Done to our Money? This is such an important work.

Obviously, if gold and silver are money, you don’t need to “invest” in gold and silver, as you are already keeping some large percentage of your net worth in cash balances, checkable deposits, savings deposits, and gold- or silver-denominated bonds and insurance policies. 

I remember as a kid that after we were taken off the gold standard that investment advice typically recommended, say a 20% cash holding position, with say half of that in cash funds for personal use and emergencies and half in precious metals for reasons such as inflation protection. The rest of your net worth statement would be in investments such as stocks, bonds, and real estate. The cash type holdings were not considered investments, but were for emergencies, diversification, and to take advantage of investment opportunities as you built bigger cash holdings.

Of course, this cuts off Warren Buffett’s objections at the knees. He is after all the “king of cash,” often with mountains of cash on the balance sheet of his company. Yes, this cash does earn a yield, which might be important to his investors, but the cash yield is also subject to the inflation premium tax and all the government taxes too. The risk of loss has been very low.

Gold can underperform stock investments. However, when I took a look at the average closing prices for gold, the Dow, and the S&P 500, during 1971—when we were taken off the gold standard—and last year, 2023, dividing 2023 into 1971, gold went up 47 and a half times, the Dow went up only 38.6 times, and the S&P 500 only went up 44.6 times. 

So, gold actually wins that simple comparison over the 52-year period. It’s a “simple” comparison because it doesn’t include reinvested dividends, where stocks would win, and it doesn’t include capital gains taxes on stocks or fees, which would hurt stocks, and it doesn’t include the annual safety deposit box fee where for less than $100 per year you can rent a box in a bank that would hold a large amount of gold and your important papers.

Again, my points are not a matter of financial advice, or that gold is a superior investment, it’s just to point out that Mr. Buffet and Mr. Ramsey don’t know what they are talking about and have failed to look at the facts of history—any kind of history—in voicing their “opinions.”

In fact, I’m not even suggesting that putting all your money into gold or silver is a great idea! In the past, investment advisors simply recommended that part of our cash investments be in precious metals to protect long run purchasing power, a diversification asset, and something to balance your net worth statement. It also helps build your “buy and hold” mentality towards savings because gold and silver come with transaction fees and difficulties—less than real estate, but more than typical stocks today, or just using your debit card.

In the end result, John Maynard Keynes was a socialist who preferred more of an absolutist state that could do much as it pleases, including unrestricted borrowing and spending. The anti-gold dogma generated by the Federal Reserve’s propaganda machine is intensely strong among us. Mr. Buffet and Mr. Ramsey swallowed that statist creed hook, line, and sinker.

*  *  *

We have kicked off the Fall Campaign at the Mises Institute. I humbly request that you make a small donation in the name of this podcast using the link in the show notes. It would mean a great deal to me. For every $100 or more donation, or recurring donation of $5 or more, using this link, I will send you a signed copy of my Skyscraper Curse book: mises.org/mi5

END

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED

//Hang Seng CLOSED

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 743.30 PTS OR 1.97%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.05%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0434 Oil DOWN TO 71.72dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 75.09 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.0434

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED

2. Nikkei closed UP 743.30 POINTS OR 1..97%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  101.65 EURO FALLS TO 1.1041 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.838 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146..77…… JAPANESE YEN NOW RISING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE COLLAPSING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.1410 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.472 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.930

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.121

3j Gold at $2647.10 /Silver at: 31.44  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 48/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 95.17

3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and  75 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.77  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.838% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8494 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9378  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.812 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.151 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.658 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.18…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.054 UP 0 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.071 UP 4 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.843 UP 3 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Drop As Record Hong Kong 13-Day Rally Finally Ends

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 08:19 AM

US stock futures are lower, but off session lows, in line with declines seen across Europe and Asia, while yields, the dollar and oil rise as the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East damps risk appetite. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% after closing up 0.01% on Wednesday; Nasdaq futures slide 0.3% with MegaCap Tech mixed: NVDA is up +0.7%, while TSLA extends yesterday selloff and is down -1.6% pre-market. Bloomberg’s dollar index gained for a fourth day, bolstered by a rise in Treasury yields; market snapshot: RTY -70bps // UST10yr +2.5bps @ 3.80bps // WTI +2% @ $71.50 // Bitcoin unch @ $60,900 as global equities trade mixed with escalating geopolitical tensions/ the awaiting of the size/scale Israel’s response to Iran weighs on markets, which has pushed oil prices up another 1.9% this morning; elsewhere in commodities base metals are also higher, while precious metals and ags are lower: Jobless claims, factory orders and the ISM services reading (est 51.7, Last 51.5) are all on the slate as traders prepare for Friday’s jobs report, while the Federal Reserve’s Jeff Schmid, Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic are all scheduled to speak.

In premarket trading, Levi Strauss shares plunged 11% after the apparel company lowered its revenue growth outlook for the full year. Here are some other premarket movers:

• EVgo (EVGO) rises 12% after JPMorgan upgraded the EV charging firm on the view that companies like EVgo, which have an owner-operator model, will outperform peers.
• Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) drops 9% as the FDA said Eli Lilly’s weight-loss drugs are no longer considered to be in shortage in the US, a ruling that threatens to upend knockoffs that became popular when patients couldn’t find the brand-name medicines. Hims has been selling compounded semaglutide to treat obesity.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) declines 5% as Mizuho cut its recommendation of the semiconductor device company to underperform, noting slower global EV sales in second half and next year.

Global equities are on course for their first weekly loss in four as the world awaits Israel’s response to a missile strike by Iran. Israel’s warplanes bombed Beirut overnight, after eight of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon in battles against Hezbollah. Amid the geopolitical uncertainty, investors are also bracing for a raft of US data, including jobless claims today, for signals on the health of the economy. In other news, Warren Buffet’s sales of Bank of America shares slowed, fetching some of the lowest prices since he began a spree of liquidations in mid-July. Meanwhile, OpenAI has raised $6.6 billion in a new funding round that gave the company a valuation of almost $160 billion

International conflict has returned as a driver for markets, which have lately been directed mainly by the US economic cycle, said Michael Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. “There might be a pressure to rebalance, because markets are stretched and I don’t see that as being particularly positive for US equities,” he said.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin on Wednesday noted progress on inflation and added the labor market is in “good shape,” but cautioned it’s too early for the central bank to declare victory. Stronger-than-expected ADP jobs data on Wednesday led traders to pare bets on aggressive Fed rate cuts. Swaps traders were penciling in some 34 basis points of policy easing at the central bank’s November meeting, down from 44 basis points just last week.

Fed officials will see fresh labor market data Friday. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2% in September while payrolls are expected to rise by 150,000.

“I am of course nervous heading into tomorrow’s jobs report,” Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said on Bloomberg TV. “If the unemployment rate ticks up, I wouldn’t be surprised that markets would shift back toward expecting 50 basis points and then it is a question of how the Fed may react.”

European stocks fall for the third time in four sessions with the Stoxx 600 down 0.9%. Auto, mining and construction shares are underperforming in Europe; utilities was the only sector in the green. The Stoxx 600’s automotive subindex was the biggest underperformer, weighed down by a number of bearish cuts in the sector from Barclays. France’s CAC 40 stock benchmark underperformed, falling as much as 1%, after French President Emmanuel Macron endorsed a temporary tax on the country’s largest companies. German software maker SAP SE dropped after US prosecutors broadened a probe of potential price-fixing. Stellantis NV shares were down more than 3% after the company slashed vehicle production in its key Italian market. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Stora Enso gains as much as 6.0% after the Finnish paper and forest products firm said it will sell about 12% of its total forest assets in Sweden to strengthen its balance sheet and reduce debt
• Tesco shares rise as much as 2.6%, bouncing off a one-month low, after the UK’s largest supermarket chain raised its full-year profit outlook alongside first-half results
• Voltalia shares rise as much as 4.4% after Stifel initiated coverage of the French renewable-energy producer with a recommendation of buy, citing a fast growing market
• Stellantis falls as much as 4.9% and Porsche Automobil Holding as much as 3.2% after the stocks were downgraded alongside Mercedes-Benz at Barclays in a review of European carmakers
• FDJ shares slide as much as 5.9% after CIC Market Solutions analysts downgrade the lottery operator to neutral from buy, citing the potential for incoming tax rises on gambling in France
• Bouygues shares drop as much as 6.1%, the most since November 2022, after the French company said its telecoms business will launch a new brand and product range targeting families
• VP plunges as much as 12% after the equipment rental firm’s profit guidance for the year came in below expectations. Analysts at Peel Hunt warned they expect the stock to remain under pressure

Asian stocks also fell as Hong Kong shares took a breather after a record rally fueled by Beijing’s stimulus blitz. Japanese equities rose boosted by the plunge in the yen. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped as much as 0.9%, weighed down by Chinese tech shares including Alibaba and Tencent. A gauge of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong fell 1.6%, snapping its 13-day winning streak.

While there’s growing optimism that the current rally may be different from previous short-lived rebounds, some skepticism remains over the effectiveness of the government’s stimulus measures. The mainland Chinese market is closed through Oct. 7 for the Golden Week holiday.

“The stimulus momentum has stalled with China away on holiday,” said Charu Chanana, global markets strategist at Saxo Markets. “While undervaluation has helped, markets still remain uncertain about the impact of the announcements to address China’s structural headwinds.”

In FX, the pound tumbled over 1% against the dollar, on course for its worst day against the euro since 2022 after the Guardian reported Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey saying the central bank could be a “bit more aggressive” with interest-rate cuts. Money markets fully priced in a quarter-point cut by the BOE in November and assigned a 70% probability to a reduction in December, an increase from about 40% Wednesday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.3%. The yen falls 0.4% to near 147 as PM Ishiba’s unexpected warning against raising rates is pushing back bets of another hike this year.

In rates, treasuries are under modest pressure as the US trading day begins, amid steeper declines for most euro-zone bond markets and rising oil prices. US yields are higher by 2bp-3bp, with intermediate sectors leading losses and curve spreads narrowly mixed; 10-year at 3.81% is about 2.7bp higher on the day vs increases of at least 5bp for most euro-zone 10-year yields. UK bonds outperform led by the short-end after BOE Governor hinted at more aggressive rate cuts; UK two-year yields dropping 5 bps to 3.96%. US session includes weekly jobless claims and September ISM services index (factory index released Tuesday showed notable weakness in employment and prices paid).

In commodities, oil prices rise for a third day as traders await Israel’s response against Iran. Brent crude climbed near $75 a barrel, on course for the longest run of daily gains since August, while West Texas Intermediate was above $71. Investors are concerned that, should Israel strike key Iranian assets, the Islamic Republic will lash out and escalate their conflict, dragging in more countries and potentially disrupting global energy shipments. Spot gold falls $13 to around $2,645/oz.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes September Challenger job cuts (7:30am), weekly jobless claims (8:30am), September final S&P Global US services PMI (9:45am), August factory orders and September ISM services index (10am). Fed speakers scheduled include Kansas City’s Schmid (10am) and Minneapolis’s Kashkari and Atlanta’s Bostic (together at 10:40am)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.4% to 5,735.75
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 516.57
• MXAP down 0.5% to 194.77
• MXAPJ down 1.2% to 622.17
• Nikkei up 2.0% to 38,552.06
• Topix up 1.2% to 2,683.71
• Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 22,113.51
• Shanghai Composite up 8.1% to 3,336.50
• Sensex down 2.1% to 82,503.93
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,205.19
• Kospi down 1.2% to 2,561.69
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.14%
• Euro little changed at $1.1045
• Brent Futures up 1.1% to $74.73/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.6% to $2,644.02
• US Dollar Index up 0.15% to 101.83

Top Overnight News

• A leading economist in China said the country has room to ramp up fiscal support for the economy by issuing as much as 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in special debt, reflecting rising expectations for Beijing to expand public spending as part of its stimulus package: BBG
• BOJ board member Asahi Noguchi sees a need for the central bank to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance given Japan’s long history of deflation, he said Thursday, echoing remarks from the country’s new prime minister. WSJ
• Softbank’s Son says artificial general intelligence will be achieved within 2-3 years, with artificial super intelligence occurring within 10 years. WSJ
• The pound tumbled after Governor Andrew Bailey told the Guardian that the BOE may become a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates if news on inflation remains good. Money markets fully priced a quarter-point reduction in November and assigned a 70% chance of a consecutive move in December, up from about 40% yesterday. BBG
• Swiss inflation weakened to the slowest pace in more than three years, pointing to further monetary easing by the country’s central bank. Consumer prices rose 0.8% from a year ago in September, Switzerland’s statistics office said Thursday. That’s much lower than the 1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey and compares with 1.1% in August. BBG
• France, Greece, Italy and Poland will vote on Friday in favor of tariffs of up to 45% on imports of electric vehicles (EVs) made in China, sources said, enough to push through the European Union’s highest profile trade measures, risking potential retaliation from Beijing. RTRS
• OPEC has enough spare oil capacity to compensate for a full loss of Iranian supply if Israel knocks out that country’s facilities but the producer group would struggle if Iran retaliates by hitting installations of its Gulf neighbors. RTRS
• Iran would require not weeks but many months, and possibly as long as a year, to construct a nuclear weapon. NYT
• After Israel invaded Lebanon to confront Iran’s strongest ally, Hezbollah, and Iran’s second massive missile attack on Israel in less than six months, Israel seems ready to strike Iran directly, in a much more forceful and public way than it ever has, and Iran has warned of massive retaliation if it does. NYT
• Israel’s warplanes bombed Beirut overnight, after eight of its soldiers were killed in southern Lebanon in ongoing ground battles against Hezbollah: RTRS
• Long lines of container ships queued up outside major U.S. ports on Thursday as the biggest dockworker strike in nearly half a century entered its third day preventing unloading and threatening shortages of everything from bananas to auto parts. No negotiations were scheduled between the International Longshoremen’s Association and employers, but the port owners, under pressure from the White House to hike their pay offer to land a deal, signaled late on Wednesday they were open to new talks. RTRS

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed amid the backdrop of several holiday closures and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while Hong Kong participants booked profits. ASX 200 lacked direction alongside varied data releases including downward PMI revisions and mixed trade figures. Nikkei 225 outperformed on the back of a weaker currency after yesterday’s dovish-leaning remarks from Japanese PM Ishiba who said they are not in an environment for an additional rate hike following a meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda, while Ueda said the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the outlook is realised, but will take careful steps to determine that as it takes time. Hang Seng suffered heavy losses amid profit taking and in a possible sign that the China stimulus euphoria has finally worn out.

Top Asian News

• BoJ Board Member Noguchi said they must patiently maintain loose monetary conditions and it will take a considerable time for the public to shift to a mindset where inflation can sustainably hit 2%, while he believes the consumption uptrend is likely to become clearer and noted the cost pressure from wage hikes is gradually being reflected in service price rises. Furthermore, he said the BoJ will likely gradually adjust the degree of monetary support while cautiously examining whether inflation stably hits 2%, accompanied by wage gains, as well as noted that the BoJ can spend time and move cautiously, in reducing its balance sheet. Does not comment of PM Ishiba’s remarks on monetary policy; expects BoJ to adjust degree of monetary policy if economy moves in line with forecast, even at a very slow pace. “personally feel we need to proceed very carefully in adjusting degree of monetary support”. “Need to scrutinise whether consumers’ sentiment will shift to one where they can swallow price hikes.”. “As Governor Ueda has said, we have time to scrutinise economic developments, before contemplating rate hike.”. “The current financial environment is sufficiently easy.” “Japan’s economy can withstand if the JPY becomes stronger gradually.”. “Will not deny there is room to adjust the degree of monetary support further.”. “Given it is hard to come up with a concrete estimate on the neutral rate, the BoJ must check the impact of the past rate hike before carefully proceeding with the next one.”. “The one-sided, sharp JPY fall seen in July has subsided.”. “The upside inflation risk from a weak JPY has subsided.”
• Japanese PM Kishida is to direct a compilation of economic package on Friday, according to Kyodo.
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato has affirmed the government, BoJ will continue to coordinate closely; also said he wants to watch the FX market with a sense of urgency including speculative moves. “We will communicate thoroughly with markets”. Will aim to exit deflation soon, working closely with BoJ.
• Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa said in broad terms, policy rate of 0.25% is an accommodative state. “We are moving towards monetary policy normalisation but existing deflation is a top priority”. “We must not cool down the economy”.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), opened modestly in negative territory and continued to edge lower as the morning progressed, with indices now generally just off lows. The FTSE 100 (+0.2%) remains in positive territory after BoE Governor Bailey’s dovishly-received comments. European sectors are negative across the board with Energy also turning red following a positive open. There is no clear theme or bias across European sectors. Autos and Parts once again lag. Basic Resources also resides as one of the losers amid the pullback in base metal prices. US Equity Futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%, RTY -0.7%) are softer across the board amid the broader risk-averse mood despite the lack of any fresh drivers during the session, but ahead of risk events including the weekly jobless claims and ISM Services PMI ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report. Barclays has upgraded the EU Autos & Parts sector to neutral from negative

Top European News

• BoE Governor Bailey said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good, in an interview with The Guardian.
• UK PM Starmer conceded during his first visit to Brussels that his “reset” with the EU won’t be easy, according to AFP.
• Riksbank’s Jansson said the bank is not too worried about a consumption driven uptick in inflation as a result of rate cuts. Need to see an economic recovery if inflation is not undershoot. Would be good for the economy if fundamental factors were reflected in the value of the crown.
• BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data (September 2024). Expectations for CPI inflation a year ahead declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations was also 2.6% in the three months to September, and 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to August. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged at 4.1% on a three-month moving-average basis in September.

FX

• USD is broadly stronger vs. peers with DXY up for a fourth consecutive session in a week that has been characterised by geopolitical tensions and comments from Fed Chair Powell guiding markets towards a step down to a 25bps rate cut next month. DXY is currently eyeing the 102.00 mark, and may take impetus from today’s US busy data docket, with ISM Services likely the highlight.
• EUR is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers. ECB officials seemingly endorsing a rate cut later this month has definitely acted as a drag on the pair, with attention now on if the pair can hold above the 1.10 mark.
• GBP is the standout laggard across the majors following dovishly-received comments from BoE Governor Bailey; he said in an interview with The Guardian, the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD after breaching the September peak for USD/JPY at 147.21 overnight. As a reminder, on Wednesday, PM Ishiba downplayed the likelihood of another immediate BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently stands at around 146.83.
• Both antipodes are struggling vs. the broadly firmer USD. After an indecisive session yesterday, AUD/USD has extended its move lower on a 0.68 handle.

Fixed Income

• USTs are extending on yesterday’s downside that was triggered in part by Wednesday’s strong ADP release in the run-up to Friday’s NFP print. Today’s US data docket is a busy one with ISM Services PMI the likely highlight. US 10yr yield is currently just above the 3.8% mark but below Wednesday’s 3.817% peak.
• Bunds are lower in an extension of Wednesday’s US-led price action, but it remains to be seen how long the downside can continue given the increasingly dovish tones seen out of the ECB with comments from hawk Schnabel helping to cement expectations of an increasingly dovish ECB. The German 10yr yield is back above the 2.1% after delving as low as 2.01% earlier in the week.
• Gilts the standout outlier across the fixed income space on account of dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey who said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be “good”. The UK 10yr yield is currently holding just above the 4% mark.
• Spain sells EUR 4.54bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 2.50% 2027, 1.45% 2029 and 4.70% 2041 Bono and EUR 0.512bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L.
• France sells EUR 11.98bln vs exp. EUR 10-12bln 1.25% 2034, 3.00% 2034, 3.00% 2049, and 3.25% 2055 OAT.

Commodities

• Crude is firmer intraday in a continuation of the upside seen since the recent geopolitical escalation. Updates from the region has been light thus far, as markets still await Israel’s response which will reportedly be “harsh”. Brent Dec briefly rose above USD 75/bbl to trade in a current USD 74.46-75.11/bbl parameter.
• Softer trade across precious metals as the firmer Dollar and lack of fresh geopolitical escalations (as we await Israel’s response) allow traders to book some profits before scheduled risk events such as the US jobless claims and ISM Services PMIs.
• Base metals are softer across the board against the backdrop of a risk-averse mood across the market. Newsflow has been light this morning but the angst surrounding a wider geopolitical escalation in the Middle East remains. As a reminder, Chinese markets were closed overnight as they observe their Golden Week Holiday.
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) reports a mechanical failure on gasoline pipeline repaired at Sacramento County, California; pipeline is shutdown, personnel is on route to the site to get eyes on assessment.
• Kazakhstan’s 400k BPD Kashagan repairs reportedly postponed, now due to start on Oct 7th, according to Ifax.

Geopolitics

• IDF orders another 25 villages evacuated in southern Lebanon, according to ELINT News
• “An Israeli infantry group and vehicles retreat beyond the Blue Line after infiltrating towards the town of Maroun al-Ras”, according to Al Jazeera
• “Private sources for Sky News Arabia: A positive atmosphere prevailed in the meeting in Doha between Abbas and Hamas leaders”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli Military said it assassinated head of Hamas government Rawhi Mushtaha in Gaza strip.
• Hezbollah said it confronted an attempt by Israeli forces to advance at Lebanese border’s Fatima Gate.
• “US sources say Washington is ready to sell F-15s to Ankara”, according to journalist Soylu; “Sources say if Turkey finally returns to F-35 program, Ankara might be involved in production line”, “Turkey’s F-16 deal is still being finalised”.
• Pro-Iranian factions target an international coalition base in north-eastern Syria, via Sky News Arabia.
• Israel conducted raids on 3 sites in the neighbourhoods of Mouawad, Al-Amrikan and Zaghloul in Beirut. It was also reported that an Israeli strike hit central Beirut, while a building targeted by the Israeli raid in Bachoura reportedly housed the office of Beirut’s Hezbollah deputy Amin Sherri.
• Israeli army called on residents of several buildings in Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh and Hadath West in the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate and a Sky News Arabia correspondent reported a new series of Israeli raids targeting the suburbs of Beirut.
• Israeli Home Front announced sirens sounded in several areas of the Golan and that sirens sounded in Shlomi in the western Galilee in northern Israel. Furthermore, Israeli media reported that 4 marches launched from Yemen exploded at a low altitude in the airspace of Tel Aviv, according to Asharq News.
• Clashes were reported between Hezbollah and Israeli soldiers on the outskirts of Aitaroun, southern Lebanon, according to an Al-Arabiya correspondent.
• Israeli press cited an official who stated that the response to Iran may include more than one option and not necessarily through airstrikes. The official added it is not certain that Washington will agree with them but it knows that they have to respond, while they should not go too far in our response although it will be much stronger than the response to the April attack.
• Israeli official cited by Yedioth Ahronoth said there are no limits to the response to Iran, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iran’s President vowed a stronger response if Israel retaliates.

US Event Calendar

• 07:30: Sept. Challenger Job Cuts 53.4% YoY, prior 1.0%
• 08:30: Sept. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 221,000, prior 218,000
  • Sept. Continuing Claims, est. 1.83m, prior 1.83m
• 09:45: Sept. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.4, prior 55.4
  • Sept. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 54.4, prior 54.4
• 10:00: Aug. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0%, prior 0%
  • Aug. Durables-Less Transportation, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
• 10:00: Aug. Factory Orders, est. 0.1%, prior 5.0%
  • Aug. Factory Orders Ex Trans, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
  • Aug. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.1%
  • Aug. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
• 10:00: Sept. ISM Services Index, est. 51.7, prior 51.5

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Amsterdam after a day in The Hague yesterday. Markets remained on edge over the last 24 hours, but better US jobs data than the previous day took the edge off fears of a potential escalation in the Middle East following Iran’s strikes on Tuesday. So far we haven’t seen any fresh escalation since those strikes, but Israeli PM Netanyahu has said they intend to retaliate, warning that Iran “will pay” for its actions. So the big fear is there could be a further ratcheting up of hostilities if you get repeated rounds of retaliation from each side, raising the risks of a broader regional conflict. However late in the day, we heard US President Biden urging Israel to not to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. So there doesn’t seem to be a desire from the US at the moment for a sizeable escalation.

In terms of the market reaction, that’s already led to a further rise in oil prices, and early in yesterday’s session Brent crude had been on track for its biggest 2-day gain of 2024 so far. Those gains (+3.5% to above $76/bbl at the highs) were mostly pared back into the afternoon, but it rose slightly again late on and is a further +1.03% higher this morning at $74.66/bbl as I type.
Whilst investors awaited any geopolitical news, the other main story yesterday was a substantial bond selloff. That was primarily driven by the ADP’s latest report of private payrolls from the US, which came in at +143k in September (vs. +125k expected). So that was an important sign of strength in the US labour market, particularly ahead of tomorrow’s all-important jobs report, and it also ended a run of 5 consecutive months where the ADP reading had kept slowing down.

The stronger numbers in the ADP report led investors to dial back the chance of aggressive rate cuts over the coming months. For instance, the amount of cuts priced by December 2025 was down -4.4bps on the day to 188bps. This came also amid somewhat cautious comments from Fed’s Barkin, who noted that while progress has been made, “It remains difficult to say that the inflation battle has yet been won”. This backdrop helped to spark a decent selloff for US Treasuries, with the 10yr yield ending the day up +5.1bps at 3.78%.

Those moves were evident in Europe as well, where yields on 10yr bunds (+5.5bps) moved back up to 2.09%, having closed at their lowest level since January in the previous session. That went alongside a fresh round of curve steepening, as investors became increasingly confident that the ECB would cut rates again in a couple of weeks’ time, with overnight index swaps giving that a 96% probability by the close. ECB commentary did little to dissuade October rate cut expectations. Later on in the day, we heard from Schnabel, one of the most prominent hawkish ECB voices in recent years, who said that “we cannot ignore the headwinds to growth” and that “a sustainable fall of inflation back to our 2% target in a timely manner is becoming more likely, despite still elevated services inflation and strong wage growth”. Elsewhere in European rates, there was a slight tightening in the Franco-German 10yr spread, which came down by -1.0bps to 77bps.

Whilst bonds were selling off, for equities it was a pretty subdued session as geopolitical fears came up against the stronger-than-expected data, meaning that the major indices saw little change overall even if sentiment improved as the US session progressed. The S&P 500 (+0.01%) was essentially flat on the day, despite a drag from the Magnificent 7 (-0.66%). The latter came amid a -3.49% decline for Tesla, which posted slower than expected quarterly vehicle sales. More broadly, both the NASDAQ (+0.08%) and the small cap Russell 2000 (-0.09%) saw muted moves. In Europe, the STOXX 600 (+0.05%) was also little changed, with a decline for the DAX (-0.25%) but slight gains for the CAC (+0.05%) and FTSE 100 (+0.17%).

Over in Asia, yesterday brought a clear weakening in the Japanese Yen after new PM Shigeru Ishiba said that “I don’t think the environment is ready for an additional rate hike”. So among investors, that led to a bit more scepticism about the chances of another BoJ hike anytime soon, and it meant that the yen weakened by -1.97% against the US Dollar yesterday and is down another quarter percent this morning. But the weaker yen has also led to a sharp surge in the Nikkei overnight (+2.18%).

In contrast, the Hang Seng is down by -3.20% this morning as the rally from China’s stimulus has finally abated for now, while the S&P/ASX 200 is just below flat, down by -0.08%. Meanwhile, markets in Mainland China and South Korea are closed for holidays. S&P 500 (-0.18%) and NASDAQ (-0.30%) futures are lower even as Nvidia’s CEO has said the demand for their Blackwell chip is “insane”. They were up around +1.6% after hours.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s service sector activity expanded for the third consecutive month, although the pace slowed slightly in September. The final estimate of the au Jibun Bank services PMI fell to 53.1 in September from 53.7 in August. Additionally, Australia’s trade surplus was A$5.64 billion in August, slightly above the expected A$5.50 billion, compared to a downwardly revised A$5.63 billion surplus the previous month.

There wasn’t too much other data yesterday, but we did get the latest weekly data from the Mortgage Bankers Association in the US. That showed the average rate on a 30yr fixed mortgage ticked up to 6.14% in the week ending September 27, up from 6.13% in the previous week, which is significant as that ends a run of continuous weekly declines in mortgages rates throughout August and early September. Over in the Euro Area, we also found out that the unemployment rate remained at 6.4% in August, in line with expectations, and still its joint-lowest since the single currency’s formation.

To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the ISM services for September, the weekly initial jobless claims, and August’s factory orders. We’ll also get the final services and composite PMIs from around the world, and Euro Area PPI inflation for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Schmid, Kashkari and Bostic.

2B) European report

FTSE outperforms in Europe post-BoE Bailey’s comments, US data deluge ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 05:56 AM

• European bourses are lower across the board (ex-FTSE 100), US futures are in negative terrirtory ahead of today’s US data deluge.
• Dollar is firmer vs G10 peers, GBP underperforms after BoE Governor Bailey said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good.
• Bonds are on the backfoot, extending on the pressure seen post-ADP on Wednesday; Gilts outperform following the dovish-leaning Bailey comments.
• Crude oil is continuing the benefit from the geopolitical risk premium, XAU/base metals dip amid the stronger Dollar
• Looking ahead, US Services/Composite PMIs (Final), US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, Durable Goods (R), Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, Speakers include Fed’s Bostic & Schmid, Supply from the US, Earnings from Constellation Brands.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.7%), opened modestly in negative territory and continued to edge lower as the morning progressed, with indices now generally just off lows. The FTSE 100 (+0.2%) remains in positive territory after BoE Governor Bailey’s dovishly-received comments.
• European sectors are negative across the board with Energy also turning red following a positive open. There is no clear theme or bias across European sectors. Autos and Parts once again lag. Basic Resources also resides as one of the losers amid the pullback in base metal prices.
• US Equity Futures (ES -0.4%, NQ -0.5%, RTY -0.7%) are softer across the board amid the broader risk-averse mood despite the lack of any fresh drivers during the session, but ahead of risk events including the weekly jobless claims and ISM Services PMI ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report.
• Barclays has upgraded the EU Autos & Parts sector to neutral from negative
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is broadly stronger vs. peers with DXY up for a fourth consecutive session in a week that has been characterised by geopolitical tensions and comments from Fed Chair Powell guiding markets towards a step down to a 25bps rate cut next month. DXY is currently eyeing the 102.00 mark, and may take impetus from today’s US busy data docket, with ISM Services likely the highlight.
• EUR is softer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than most peers. ECB officials seemingly endorsing a rate cut later this month has definitely acted as a drag on the pair, with attention now on if the pair can hold above the 1.10 mark.
• GBP is the standout laggard across the majors following dovishly-received comments from BoE Governor Bailey; he said in an interview with The Guardian, the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good.
• JPY is softer vs. the USD after breaching the September peak for USD/JPY at 147.21 overnight. As a reminder, on Wednesday, PM Ishiba downplayed the likelihood of another immediate BoJ rate hike. USD/JPY currently stands at around 146.83.
• Both antipodes are struggling vs. the broadly firmer USD. After an indecisive session yesterday, AUD/USD has extended its move lower on a 0.68 handle.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are extending on yesterday’s downside that was triggered in part by Wednesday’s strong ADP release in the run-up to Friday’s NFP print. Today’s US data docket is a busy one with ISM Services PMI the likely highlight. US 10yr yield is currently just above the 3.8% mark but below Wednesday’s 3.817% peak.
• Bunds are lower in an extension of Wednesday’s US-led price action, but it remains to be seen how long the downside can continue given the increasingly dovish tones seen out of the ECB with comments from hawk Schnabel helping to cement expectations of an increasingly dovish ECB. The German 10yr yield is back above the 2.1% after delving as low as 2.01% earlier in the week.
• Gilts the standout outlier across the fixed income space on account of dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey who said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be “good”. The UK 10yr yield is currently holding just above the 4% mark.
• Spain sells EUR 4.54bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 2.50% 2027, 1.45% 2029 and 4.70% 2041 Bono and EUR 0.512bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 2.05% 2039 I/L.
• France sells EUR 11.98bln vs exp. EUR 10-12bln 1.25% 2034, 3.00% 2034, 3.00% 2049, and 3.25% 2055 OAT.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is firmer intraday in a continuation of the upside seen since the recent geopolitical escalation. Updates from the region has been light thus far, as markets still await Israel’s response which will reportedly be “harsh”. Brent Dec briefly rose above USD 75/bbl to trade in a current USD 74.46-75.11/bbl parameter.
• Softer trade across precious metals as the firmer Dollar and lack of fresh geopolitical escalations (as we await Israel’s response) allow traders to book some profits before scheduled risk events such as the US jobless claims and ISM Services PMIs.
• Base metals are softer across the board against the backdrop of a risk-averse mood across the market. Newsflow has been light this morning but the angst surrounding a wider geopolitical escalation in the Middle East remains. As a reminder, Chinese markets were closed overnight as they observe their Golden Week Holiday.
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) reports a mechanical failure on gasoline pipeline repaired at Sacramento County, California; pipeline is shutdown, personnel is on route to the site to get eyes on assessment.
• Kazakhstan’s 400k BPD Kashagan repairs reportedly postponed, now due to start on Oct 7th, according to Ifax.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU Producer Prices YY (Aug) -2.3% vs. Exp. -2.4% (Prev. -2.1%, Rev. -2.2%); Producer Prices MM (Aug) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 0.7%)
• EU HCOB Composite Final PMI (Sep) 49.6 vs. Exp. 48.9 (Prev. 48.9); HCOB Services Final PMI (Sep) 51.4 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.5)
• UK S&P Global PMI Composite Output (Sep) 52.6 vs. Exp. 52.9 (Prev. 52.9); Global Service PMI (Sep) 52.4 vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 52.8)
• Spanish Services PMI (Sep) 57.0 vs. Exp. 54.0 (Prev. 54.6)
• German HCOB Services PMI (Sep) 50.6 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.6); HCOB Composite Final PMI (Sep) 47.5 vs. Exp. 47.2 (Prev. 47.2)
• French HCOB Composite PMI (Sep) 48.6 vs. Exp. 47.4 (Prev. 47.4); HCOB Services PMI (Sep) 49.6 vs. Exp. 48.3 (Prev. 48.3)Italian HCOB Composite PMI (Sep) 49.7 (Prev. 50.8); HCOB Services PMI (Sep) 50.5 vs. Exp. 51.0 (Prev. 51.4)
• Swedish PMI Services (Sep) 49.1 (Prev. 52.9, Rev. 52.4)
• Swiss CPI MM (Sep) -0.3% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.0%); CPI YY (Sep) 0.8% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.1%)
• Turkish CPI MM (Sep) 2.97% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 2.47%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good, in an interview with The Guardian.
• UK PM Starmer conceded during his first visit to Brussels that his “reset” with the EU won’t be easy, according to AFP.
• Riksbank’s Jansson said the bank is not too worried about a consumption driven uptick in inflation as a result of rate cuts. Need to see an economic recovery if inflation is not undershoot. Would be good for the economy if fundamental factors were reflected in the value of the crown.
• BoE Monthly Decision Maker Panel data (September 2024). Expectations for CPI inflation a year ahead declined by 0.1 percentage point to 2.6% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations was also 2.6% in the three months to September, and 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to August. Expected year-ahead wage growth remained unchanged at 4.1% on a three-month moving-average basis in September.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• IDF orders another 25 villages evacuated in southern Lebanon, according to ELINT News
• “An Israeli infantry group and vehicles retreat beyond the Blue Line after infiltrating towards the town of Maroun al-Ras”, according to Al Jazeera
• “Private sources for Sky News Arabia: A positive atmosphere prevailed in the meeting in Doha between Abbas and Hamas leaders”, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli Military said it assassinated head of Hamas government Rawhi Mushtaha in Gaza strip.
• Hezbollah said it confronted an attempt by Israeli forces to advance at Lebanese border’s Fatima Gate.
• “US sources say Washington is ready to sell F-15s to Ankara”, according to journalist Soylu; “Sources say if Turkey finally returns to F-35 program, Ankara might be involved in production line”, “Turkey’s F-16 deal is still being finalised”.
• Pro-Iranian factions target an international coalition base in north-eastern Syria, via Sky News Arabia.
• Israel conducted raids on 3 sites in the neighbourhoods of Mouawad, Al-Amrikan and Zaghloul in Beirut. It was also reported that an Israeli strike hit central Beirut, while a building targeted by the Israeli raid in Bachoura reportedly housed the office of Beirut’s Hezbollah deputy Amin Sherri.
• Israeli army called on residents of several buildings in Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh and Hadath West in the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate and a Sky News Arabia correspondent reported a new series of Israeli raids targeting the suburbs of Beirut.
• Israeli Home Front announced sirens sounded in several areas of the Golan and that sirens sounded in Shlomi in the western Galilee in northern Israel. Furthermore, Israeli media reported that 4 marches launched from Yemen exploded at a low altitude in the airspace of Tel Aviv, according to Asharq News.
• Clashes were reported between Hezbollah and Israeli soldiers on the outskirts of Aitaroun, southern Lebanon, according to an Al-Arabiya correspondent.
• Israeli press cited an official who stated that the response to Iran may include more than one option and not necessarily through airstrikes. The official added it is not certain that Washington will agree with them but it knows that they have to respond, while they should not go too far in our response although it will be much stronger than the response to the April attack.
• Israeli official cited by Yedioth Ahronoth said there are no limits to the response to Iran, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iran’s President vowed a stronger response if Israel retaliates.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is on the backfoot and holds just above USD 60.6k; Ethereum is incrementally above USD 2.3k, and underperforms vs BTC.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded mixed amid the backdrop of several holiday closures and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while Hong Kong participants booked profits.
• ASX 200 lacked direction alongside varied data releases including downward PMI revisions and mixed trade figures.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed on the back of a weaker currency after yesterday’s dovish-leaning remarks from Japanese PM Ishiba who said they are not in an environment for an additional rate hike following a meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda, while Ueda said the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the outlook is realised, but will take careful steps to determine that as it takes time.
• Hang Seng suffered heavy losses amid profit taking and in a possible sign that the China stimulus euphoria has finally worn out.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ Board Member Noguchi said they must patiently maintain loose monetary conditions and it will take a considerable time for the public to shift to a mindset where inflation can sustainably hit 2%, while he believes the consumption uptrend is likely to become clearer and noted the cost pressure from wage hikes is gradually being reflected in service price rises. Furthermore, he said the BoJ will likely gradually adjust the degree of monetary support while cautiously examining whether inflation stably hits 2%, accompanied by wage gains, as well as noted that the BoJ can spend time and move cautiously, in reducing its balance sheet. Does not comment of PM Ishiba’s remarks on monetary policy; expects BoJ to adjust degree of monetary policy if economy moves in line with forecast, even at a very slow pace. “personally feel we need to proceed very carefully in adjusting degree of monetary support”. “Need to scrutinise whether consumers’ sentiment will shift to one where they can swallow price hikes.”. “As Governor Ueda has said, we have time to scrutinise economic developments, before contemplating rate hike.”. “The current financial environment is sufficiently easy.” “Japan’s economy can withstand if the JPY becomes stronger gradually.”. “Will not deny there is room to adjust the degree of monetary support further.”. “Given it is hard to come up with a concrete estimate on the neutral rate, the BoJ must check the impact of the past rate hike before carefully proceeding with the next one.”. “The one-sided, sharp JPY fall seen in July has subsided.”. “The upside inflation risk from a weak JPY has subsided.”
• Japanese PM Kishida is to direct a compilation of economic package on Friday, according to Kyodo.
• Japan’s Finance Minister Kato has affirmed the government, BoJ will continue to coordinate closely; also said he wants to watch the FX market with a sense of urgency including speculative moves. “We will communicate thoroughly with markets”. Will aim to exit deflation soon, working closely with BoJ.
• Japan’s Economy Minister Akazawa said in broad terms, policy rate of 0.25% is an accommodative state. “We are moving towards monetary policy normalisation but existing deflation is a top priority”. “We must not cool down the economy”.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Aug) 5.6B vs. Exp. 5.5B (Prev. 6.0B)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports MM (Aug) -0.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
• Australian Goods/Services Imports MM (Aug) -0.2% (Prev. -0.8%)
• Australian Judo Bank Services PMI Final (Sep) 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)
• Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (Sep) 49.6 (Prev. 49.8)

2C ASIAN REPORT.

APAC stocks traded mixed, BoE Bailey’s comments move cable lower – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 01:22 AM

• APAC stocks traded mixed amid the backdrop of several holiday closures and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while Hong Kong participants booked profits.
• Fed’s Barkin (2024 voter) said he sees two 25bps cuts this year as “a reasonable path” if the economy evolves as expected.
• BoE Governor Bailey said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good, in an interview with The Guardian.
• Israeli security cabinet decided to implement a harsh response to the Iranian attack and the response to Iran will be cruel but it will not lead to a regional war.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 0.2% on Wednesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK/US Services/Composite PMIs (Final), Swiss CPI, EZ Producer Prices, US Challenger Layoffs, IJC, Durable Goods (R), Factory Orders, ISM Services PMI, BoE Decision Maker Panel (Sept), Speakers include Fed’s Bostic & Schmid, Supply from Spain, France & US, Earnings from Constellation Brands & Tesco.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

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1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were ultimately flat with only marginal gains seen in the major indices and slight outperformance in the Nasdaq after tech was supported by the upside in NVDA which rebounded from the prior day’s losses and was helped by positive commentary from JPM.
• The energy sector was the biggest gainer on the account of higher crude prices as geopolitical tensions remained high with participants eyeing the Israeli response to Iran, although most sectors finished in the red, while the Dollar was bid and Treasuries were pressured following stronger-than-expected ADP jobs data.
• SPX +0.01% at 5,710, NDX +0.15% at 19,803, DJIA +0.09% at 41,197, RUT -0.09% at 2,195
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Barkin (2024 voter) said a 50bp cut in September was warranted because rates were out of sync with the decline in inflation and the unemployment rate near its sustainable level. Barkin said the Fed cannot declare the inflation battle is over and expects a little further drop in core PCE until next year, as well as noted that 50bps of cuts shown as the median Fed policy projection for the rest of 2024 would also take a little bit of the edge off rates. Furthermore, Barkin commented that the “last mile” of inflation may still take longer than expected and is worried price pressures could get “stuck” next year, while he sees two 25bps cuts this year as “a reasonable path” if the economy evolves as expected.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded mixed amid the backdrop of several holiday closures and ongoing geopolitical tensions, while Hong Kong participants booked profits.
• ASX 200 lacked direction alongside varied data releases including downward PMI revisions and mixed trade figures.
• Nikkei 225 outperformed on the back of a weaker currency after yesterday’s dovish-leaning remarks from Japanese PM Ishiba who said they are not in an environment for an additional rate hike following a meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda, while Ueda said the BoJ will adjust the degree of monetary easing if the outlook is realised, but will take careful steps to determine that as it takes time.
• Hang Seng suffered heavy losses amid profit taking and in a possible sign that the China stimulus euphoria has finally worn out.
• US equity futures were lacklustre after the prior day’s choppy performance and as several key data releases loom.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 0.2% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY held on to the prior day’s gains after benefitting from strong ADP jobs data which topped the forecast range, although trade was quiet overnight and participants now await upcoming Fed speakers and data releases including more jobs-related metrics ahead of Friday’s NFP report.
• EUR/USD languished near this week’s trough after giving way to the firmer dollar and was unresponsive to a slew of ECB rhetoric.
• GBP/USD was uninspired for most of the session before seeing late weakness on comments from BoE Governor Bailey who noted the central bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good, in an interview with The Guardian.
• USD/JPY extended on gains and briefly climbed above the 147.00 level owing to the recent dovish comments from Japanese PM Ishiba who suggested Japan was not ready for an additional rate hike after meeting with BoJ Governor Ueda.
• Antipodeans marginally softened overnight amid the mixed risk appetite in the region and varied data releases.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre after yesterday’s decline which was triggered by the stronger-than-expected ADP Jobs data, while the attention for the US turns to more releases including ISM Non-Manufacturing, Factory Orders, Initial Jobless Claims and Challenger Job Cuts.
• Bund futures were restrained following recent selling pressure but with downside stemmed by support near the 135.00 level.
• 10yr JGB futures traded on both sides of the 145.00 level and partially clawed back early losses after mixed results from the 10yr JGB auction.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were higher in which WTI rebounded from support at the USD 70/bbl level after recent two-way price action owing to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and bearish crude inventory data.
• OPEC refuted a recent WSJ report about Saudi Arabia saying oil may drop to USD 50/bbl if OPEC+ flouts output curbs, in which it stated that the story’s claims are “wholly inaccurate and misleading”.
• Spot gold struggled for direction after the prior day’s choppy performance and with the upside restricted by a firmer dollar.
• Copper futures were subdued and faded some of the recent advances amid the mixed risk appetite.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin steadily gained overnight after an early reclaim of the USD 61,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ Board Member Noguchi said they must patiently maintain loose monetary conditions and it will take a considerable time for the public to shift to a mindset where inflation can sustainably hit 2%, while he believes the consumption uptrend is likely to become clearer and noted the cost pressure from wage hikes is gradually being reflected in service price rises. Furthermore, he said the BoJ will likely gradually adjust the degree of monetary support while cautiously examining whether inflation stably hits 2%, accompanied by wage gains, as well as noted that the BoJ can spend time and move cautiously, in reducing its balance sheet.

DATA RECAP

• Australian Trade Balance (AUD)(Aug) 5.6B vs. Exp. 5.5B (Prev. 6.0B)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports MM (Aug) -0.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
• Australian Goods/Services Imports MM (Aug) -0.2% (Prev. -0.8%)
• Australian Judo Bank Services PMI Final (Sep) 50.5 (Prev. 50.6)
• Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Final (Sep) 49.6 (Prev. 49.8)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel conducted raids on 3 sites in the neighbourhoods of Mouawad, Al-Amrikan and Zaghloul in Beirut. It was also reported that an Israeli strike hit central Beirut, while a building targeted by the Israeli raid in Bachoura reportedly housed the office of Beirut’s Hezbollah deputy Amin Sherri.
• Israeli army called on residents of several buildings in Haret Hreik, Burj al-Barajneh and Hadath West in the southern suburbs of Beirut to evacuate and a Sky News Arabia correspondent reported a new series of Israeli raids targeting the suburbs of Beirut.
• Israeli Home Front announced sirens sounded in several areas of the Golan and that sirens sounded in Shlomi in the western Galilee in northern Israel. Furthermore, Israeli media reported that 4 marches launched from Yemen exploded at a low altitude in the airspace of Tel Aviv, according to Asharq News.
• Clashes were reported between Hezbollah and Israeli soldiers on the outskirts of Aitaroun, southern Lebanon, according to an Al-Arabiya correspondent.
• Israeli security cabinet decided to implement a harsh response to the Iranian attack and the response to Iran will be cruel but it will not lead to a regional war. It was also reported that a senior Israeli official said Israel is going to respond independently to the Iranian attack and wants to coordinate its plans with the US because of the strategic implications of the situation, according to Axios’ Ravid. However, it was separately reported that Tel Aviv has not yet made a decision on how to respond to Iran’s attack and does not currently plan to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, according to Israeli officials cited by NYT.
• Israeli press cited an official who stated that the response to Iran may include more than one option and not necessarily through airstrikes. The official added it is not certain that Washington will agree with them but it knows that they have to respond, while they should not go too far in our response although it will be much stronger than the response to the April attack.
• Israeli official cited by Yedioth Ahronoth said there are no limits to the response to Iran, according to Al Arabiya.
• Iran’s President vowed a stronger response if Israel retaliates.
• Iran’s UN Envoy told the Security Council that Israel is pushing the region to the edge of an unprecedented catastrophe.
• Iran announced that airports in the western half of the country, including Tehran and Mehrabad, are closed until Thursday except for emergency and certain other flights, according to aviation security specialist Osprey Flight Solutions via WSJ. It was later reported that a spokesperson for Iran’s Civil Aviation Organization said that airlines will be permitted to resume flight operations starting at 05:00 AM on Thursday (02:30BST/21:30EDT).
• US President Biden said there are going to be some sanctions imposed on Iran and that he does not support an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites.
• US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said it is not just Israel that is thinking about response options to the Iran attack and that the US is too.
• Israel reportedly conducted a strike on a residential building in Syria’s Damascus resulting in injuries, according to state TV. It was also reported that Nasrallah’s son-in-law Hassan Jaafar Qasir was killed in the Israeli raid on Mezzeh neighbourhood in Damascus, according to Sky News Arabia. It was also later reported that Israeli military targeted sites in western Syria coastal cities.
• Syrian and Russian air defences reportedly dealt with hostile targets over the sea in the west of the country, according to Al Jazeera.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey said the bank could be a “bit more aggressive” in cutting rates provided the news that inflation continues to be good, in an interview with The Guardian.
• UK PM Starmer conceded during his first visit to Brussels that his “reset” with the EU won’t be easy, according to AFP.
• ECB’s Centeno said inflation has converged closely to the ECB’s target and Euro-area inflation has been well anchored.
• ECB’s de Guindos said the fight against inflation “is not totally over” and need to watch services inflation, while he added that services could be the main barrier to lower inflation and all options are open for the October rate decision.
• ECB’s Schnabel said the ECB cannot ignore headwinds to growth, but at the same time, monetary policy cannot resolve structural issues, while she added that a return to the 2% target in a timely manner is becoming more likely.
• ECB’s Vasle said they cannot exclude or commit to a rate cut in October and there will be more cuts but will depend on the data, while he added that inflation’s downward trend is sustainable and will continue.

2 JAPAN

JAPAN/YEN

END

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY

end

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

end

Israel/Iran

The following are Iran’s high value oil assets that are in the IDF crosshairs

(zerohedge)

Iran’s High-Value Oil Assets In IDF Crosshairs As Israel Vows “Painful” Response 

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 07:45 AM

For months, oil traders shrugged off any threat of a supply shock in the Middle East, betting on softening demand from China and the West, along with hopes of increased production from OPEC+. Bearish sentiment dominated the global market in late summer and early fall. But this week, the oil market faced a rude awakening after Iran launched several waves of ballistic and hypersonic missiles against Israel, sending bears scrambling and prices jumping above $75/bbl. 

The broadening war in the Middle East comes as Israel has vowed a “painful” response to Iran’s attack early in the week. Brent prices rose 4.5% in the last three days, with further gains likely ahead as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could use stealth fighter jets to neutralize the Islamic Republic’s oil infrastructure export capabilities. 

On Tuesday, Helima Croft, head of the global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, joined CNBC’s “The Exchange,” informing hosts and audience, “There has been a lot of complacency about this war,” adding, “We do need to think about a scenario where Iranian oil supplies are at risk.

Citigroup analyst Francesco Martoccia told clients that any  IDF strike on Iran’s export capacity could reduce 1.5 million barrels of crude per day from the global market overnight. He said a minor attack on energy infrastructure, such as downstream assets, could remove 300,000 to 450,000 barrels of daily output. 

For energy research desks, it is unclear how the IDF will respond to Iran. Scenarios include hitting energy infrastructure to high-value military assets and nuclear sites. 

Bloomberg provided readers on Thursday morning with a detailed map showing Iran’s major energy installations, including oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries and storage terminals: 

We tend to agree with Ross Schaapp, head of research at GeoQuant, who told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday that Israel might try to cripple Iran’s ability to export oil. As the saying goes, ‘follow the money’… and if Israel wants to neutralize Iran, in terms of paralyzing financial networks, start with crude export abilities. 

GeoQuant’s Schaapp noted that any IDF attack on Iranian energy infrastructure would send Brent prices higher “dramatically.” 
This week, Brent’s implied volatility gauge climbed to its highest level in nearly a year. In options markets, a surge in Brent call options shows traders forecasting $100/bbl. 

Bloomberg noted on Wednesday, “The equivalent of almost 27 million barrels of Brent December $100 calls traded by 11:20 am in New York while more than 7 million barrels worth of US crude December calls changed hands.” 

Meanwhile, Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Henik Fung told Terminal users, “Traders unwinding short bets could push crude prices higher on a wider war-risk premium,” adding, “WTI could retest $80 in the short term.”

Scott Shelton, an energy specialist at TP ICAP Group Plc., noted, “The odds are against a material loss in production, but when it comes to geopolitics, it’s always a hard call.” 

Not anymore… 

Goldman Says War Risk Premium Is Missing From Oil Markets  https://t.co/IZFKYegBeO

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 28, 2024

The world awaits Israel’s response. One top energy research desk emphasized to us on Wednseday that it’s almost guaranteed Israel will make a retaliatory strike against Iran. The big question is, what will IDF stealth jets strike? 

end

ISRAEL VS 7 ENEMIES OF THE ISRAEL STATE:

(ZEROHEDGE)

Israel Cannot Fight A Multi-Front War Without Support From The US Military

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 05:45 AM

The recent missile barrage striking Israel from Iran showcased a security reality that has startled many people in the west – Israel’s “Iron Dome” defense system is not as effective as they believed.  Evidence suggests it was clearly overwhelmed, either by the sheer number of missiles (estimates vary but al least 200 were fired), or by new Iranian hypersonic technology.  Either way, this one attack changed the prevailing perspective on Israeli air defense.

The media and government officials claim the Iranian salvo was “ineffective” and they have so far reported no casualties, but it’s clear from the numerous videos circulating on social media that extensive damage was done from dozens of impacts.  It’s unlikely Israel will admit to any successful strikes as this would only be giving valuable intel to Iran, but using geo-location and the existing footage online it won’t take Iran’s military leadership long to figure out what worked and what didn’t. 

The escalation from Iran was in response to Israel’s carefully planned assassination campaign against Hezbollah’s military leadership in Lebanon, including Hassan Nasrallah.  The attack, using pagers sabotaged with secretly planted explosive charges, then culminated in targeted missile strikes.  The event came only two months after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh while he was on Iranian soil.  

There are two ways to look at Israel’s strategy:  It was an attempt to decapitate enemy leadership and send their forces into disarray so that a larger war could be avoided.  Or, it was intended to enrage Iran and draw them into a larger war.  

If the latter option is the case, then Israel would have to be operating on the assumption that the US will supply military forces to the fight, because Israel will not be able to survive a multi-front war of this scale alone.

In the past Israel relied on its weapons superiority to dissuade potential attacks from neighbors, but that gap is obviously narrowing as we saw with Iran’s missile strikes this week.  Lessons from Ukraine should also be taken into account here – Israeli armor might not have the same battlefield presence it once did if cheap drones are so effective in destroying vastly more expensive tanks.  

In 2006, Israel attempted a ground invasion of Lebanon with disastrous results, which is probably why this time they struck Hezbollah leadership first.  However, Israel seems intent on fighting the whole of the Middle East at once and this changes the situation dramatically.   

The ground game, as we have seen in Ukraine, does not favor maneuver warfare due to drones and other modern intel gathering technology.  The nations with the greatest manpower have a significant advantage when it comes to attrition warfare and that is likely how this war will be fought.  Iran by itself has a considerable manpower edge over Israel.

If we examine basic population, Iran has a massive advantage with over 88 million people vs Israel’s 9.5 million people, and that’s not counting Lebanon, Syria, the Houthis in Yemen, etc.  Iran’s ability to replenish their forces with new recruits through conscription will certainly outmatch Israel’s conscription.  Again, we have seen this with Russia’s military in Ukraine. 

No technology (except perhaps nuclear weapons) would level the playing field and give Israel the ability to win in a ground war on multiple fronts.  This means the Israelis will need an allied effort, and guess which country is the only candidate for the task?

Joe Biden stated after the Iranian strikes:

“Make no mistake, the United States is fully, fully, fully supportive of Israel…”

Asked how he wanted Israel to respond, Biden said this was a matter in “active discussion” and that the consequences for Tehran “remain to be seen.”  Kamala Harris released her own statement backing Biden’s position:

“Iran is not only a threat to Israel, Iran is also a threat to American personnel in the region, American interests and innocent civilians across the region who suffer at the hands of Iran-based and backed terrorist proxies…We will never hesitate to take whatever action is necessary to defend US forces and interests against Iran and Iran-backed terrorists, and we will continue to work with our allies and partners to disrupt Iran’s aggressive behavior and hold them accountable.”

These statements fall in line with a joint military exercise and war game carried out in recent months called “Juniper Oak”.  The program was designed to prepare for inevitable war between Israel and the wider Middle East and requires participation by US forces by air, sea and land.

For those millions of Americans that want to stay out of foreign wars and entanglements, the situation does not look good.  For those wondering what the October surprise would be, war with Iran and most of the Middle East could be the shoe-drop that everyone was waiting for. 

The situation could very well upend the presidential election in November and change the voter landscape yet again.  Even with a Trump win, Biden has plenty of time to embroil the US in a war with Iran before leaving office in 2025.  The Harris camp argues that a change of leadership and policy in the mist of a geopolitical crisis would be damaging to US security.  In other words, they get America involved in a quagmire in the Middle East and then claim the quagmire requires that they stay in office.  

END 

ISRAEL/IRAN

we do not know the true extent of the damage done by Iranian missiles

Middle Eye

Israel Censors Reporting On Military Sites Hit By Iran, Obscuring Extent Of Damage

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Via Middle East Eye

After Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles across Israel on Tuesday evening, with video footage showing many of them hitting their targets, Israel closed off several military zones and barred the publication of reporting on where missiles hit the ground.

The censorship from Israel made it difficult to assess the full damage from Iran’s strikes, with both the US and Israel sending mixed messages regarding the size and impact of Tehran’s attack.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that an initial Israeli assessment of the attack showed minor damage to military bases. The Iranian attack hit the Nevatim air base in the Negev Desert, where Israel has placed some F-35 fighter jets. But Israel’s military declined to share with the Journal the extent of the damage to the air base.

The military said “it didn’t want to give information to Iran” that could help Tehran understand how much damage its attack caused.

Several missiles were also located near the Dead Sea, near where Israeli nuclear facilities are located. It wasn’t clear whether they were intercepted by Israel or the US, according to the report.

One missile hit in the vicinity of a school in the town of Gedera, with photos of the aftermath showing a massive crater in the ground and major structural damage to the nearby buildings.

Israel said that its military and a coalition of allies including the US and UK intercepted most of the missiles. However, video footage online showed numerous missiles landing inside Israel and exploding without being intercepted by Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.

The attacks caused two injuries inside Israel, while one Palestinian was killed by shrapnel in the city of Jericho in the occupied West Bank.

⚡️ 🚨 Scenes of #Iranian Fateh missiles falling on the Tel Nof air base south of Rehovot pic.twitter.com/RDq9A1B9KF

— Middle East Observer (@ME_Observer_) October 1, 2024

US national security advisor Jake Sullivan said during a brief moment with reporters on Tuesday that the Iranian attack was both a significant escalation by Tehran and also “ineffective”.

“In short, based on what we know at this point, this attack appears to have been defeated and ineffective. The word ‘fog of war’ was invented for a situation like this. This is a fluid situation,” he said.

Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said in a statement broadcast on state television that 90 percent of the missiles it launched hit their targets successfully.

Iran said it launched the attacks in response to Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, as well as its more recent killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and IRGC commander Abbas Nilforoushan in southern Beirut.

Israel’s censorship of Iran’s attack is not new, and the Israeli government has ramped up its censorship during its ongoing war on Gaza, which began in October 2023 after the Hamas-led attacks on southern Israel.

A report by +972 Magazine found that in 2023, the Israeli military barred 613 articles from being published by media outlets in Israel. That number was a record for the magazine, which began tracking censorship in 2011.

The magazine also found that an additional 2,703 articles had been redacted, which is the highest number of redactions since 2014, a year Israel also launched a war on Gaza.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

(JERUSALEM POST)

Sinwar’s right-hand man: Hamas leader Rawhi Mushtaha announced killed

Mushtaha established Hamas’s General Security Mechanism along with Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the IDF reported.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 3, 2024 11:51Updated: OCTOBER 3, 2024 12:35

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-823077&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF announced the death of Rawhi Mushtaha, head of the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip, on Thursday.

“Mushtaha, alongside Yahya Sinwar, established Hamas’s General Security Mechanism,” the military stated. They served a prison sentence together in an Israeli jail. Mushtaha was considered to be the most senior figure in the Hamas political bureau in the Gaza Strip and, during the war, maintained civil control of the Hamas regime while simultaneously engaging in terrorist activity against Israel. Mushtaha was Sinwar’s right-hand man and one of his closest associates.”

The IDF also noted that Mushtaha had been one of Hamas’s most senior operatives and was a key decision-maker in how the terror organization deployed its fighters and assets.

Sameh al-Siraj, who held the security portfolio on Hamas’s political bureau and Labor Committee, and Sami Oudeh, the commander of Hamas’s General Security Mechanism, were killed alongside Mushtaha, the military reported.

Hamas reportedly attempted to conceal eliminations to preserve moral

According to the IDF, the three senior Hamas operatives were killed in an airstrike around three months ago, but the Gazan terror organization refrained from making an announcement on the matter at the time to prevent morale loss among its fighters.

The military reported that the Israel Air Force airstrike that eliminated the Hamas leaders was conducted according to IDF and Shin Bet intelligence and that the three had been hiding inside “a fortified and equipped underground compound in the northern Gaza Strip.”

The IDF added that the compound had been a Hamas command and control center and had been equipped so that Hamas terrorists could remain within for extended periods.

The subterranean compound had reportedly served to shelter Hamas leadership, chief among whom was Mushtaha.

The Hamas leader “was involved in military decisions while also acting as the Head of Hamas Civil Governance in the Gaza Strip and holding the Prisoners Affairs Portfolio. He also formerly held the finance portfolio,” the military added.

END

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

Hezbollah rocket barrage sparks fires in North, IDF strikes kill over a dozen terrorists

A Hezbollah drone was shot down over the sea near Nahariya.

By JOANIE MARGULIESOCTOBER 3, 2024 09:04Updated: OCTOBER 3, 2024 14:05

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3780326&url=https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-823067IDF footage of strikes on Hezbollah terrorists and structures in Lebanon. October 3, 2024. (IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-823067&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

After Hezbollah fired rockets and drones on Thursday morning, sparking fires in northern Israel, the IDF announced that it had struck the Bint Jbeil municipality building in Lebanon, killing around 15 Hezbollah terrorists.

The strike was the first of its kind in the area since 2006, CNN reported.

The building allegedly acted as a weaponry stock house for Hezbollah terrorists.

Shortly after the strikes were reported, two drones were identified crossing into Israeli territory from Lebanon, the IDF announced. 

One of the drones was intercepted off the coast near the northern Israeli city of Nahariya, while the other fell in an open area. Neither triggered alert sirens, and no injuries were reported, the military said.

Subsequently, the IDF identified 25 Hezbollah rockets that crossed from Lebanon, some of which were intercepted by the IDF.

Fires break out across Israel-Lebanon border following rocket barrage

Some of those not intercepted crashed into open areas across northern Israel, igniting several fires, according to Israeli media reports.

Israel’s Fire and Rescue Service has reportedly extinguished a forest fire in Haifa, though a fire in Shlomi forest has yet to be contained. 

The military said that IAF fighter jets, under the direction of the Northern Command, responded by attacking about 200 Hezbollah terror targets, targeting military buildings, observation posts, terrorist infrastructure, and weapon warehouses in addition to terrorists themselves.

Hezbollah said that it confronted an attempt by the IDF to advance on the Fatima Gate at the Lebanese border on Thursday morning, adding that it used artillery shelling in an attempt to halt Israeli forces.

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IDF Arabic-language spokesman Avichay Adraee announced that more than 20 villages across southern Lebanon were being called on to evacuate as the military’s ground operation against Hezbollah continued.

#عاجل ‼️ تحذير عاجل لسكان القرى التالية في جنوب لبنان: الخرايب, ارزي, زرارية, عدلون, أنصارية, مزرعة دير تقلا, مزرعة الواسطة, مزرعة جمجم, قصيبه, جبشيت, نبطية, مزرعة سيناي, دوير الشرقية, كفر رمان, نبطية الفوقا, منزلة, ,حبوش ,الحمصية, بيصرية, السكسكية, لوبية, كفر تبنيت, أرنون, زوطر… pic.twitter.com/bcENOdWKN1

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) October 3, 2024

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Three large consecutive explosions heard in Beirut – report

By REUTERSOCTOBER 3, 2024 15:00Updated: OCTOBER 3, 2024 15:48

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-823095&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Three large consecutive explosions were heard in Beirut on Thursday afternoon, Reuters witnesses said. 

The Hezbollah-affiliated news outlet Al-Mayadeed reported a series of Israeli strikes in the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital. 

דיווחים: המבנה שהותקף בביירות – בניין התקשורת של חזבאללה
⁦@Doron_Kadosh⁩ pic.twitter.com/Hyy7azDVI7

— גלצ (@GLZRadio) October 3, 2024

The Lebanese outlet claimed the strikes targeted the Hezbollah media relations office in Moawad.

This is a developing story. 

END

ISRAEL.IRAN/ANALYIS

A nervous Iran wanted to restore old regional order, but Israel is on the offensive

Hardliners seem to have won the day in Tehran, but instead of deterring Netanyahu, they have likely sparked a painful, direct strike on Iranian territory – possibly the first of many

By Lazar Berman Follow2 October 2024, 5:28 pm

A handout picture provided by the the office of Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei shows him (L) and Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian during a meeting with the president and his cabinet in Tehran on August 27, 2024. (KHAMENEI.IR/AFP)

Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel surprised some observers.

It had seemed that the relatively moderate camp in Iran enjoyed growing sway over Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s decision-making. Iran’s new President Masoud Pezeshkian, a member of the group that wants to see more engagement with the West in order to grow the economy and stabilize the regime, seemed to win the day after the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.

Despite the killing — widely believed to be by Israel’s hand — of a guest of the regime, who was in the capital to attend the inauguration of the new president, Khamenei opted not to respond.

Speaking at the United Nations last week, Pezeshkian offered a message of conciliation: “We seek peace for all and have no intention of conflict with any country… Iran opposes war.”

That approach has changed.

With the elimination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and the organization’s senior leadership, the Iranian regime was genuinely alarmed. It seemed to be on the way to losing its most capable proxy, an army it had built up for three decades right on Israel’s border.

And there was an even more worrying scenario. “They were genuinely concerned that the current government might go after Iranian leaders,” said Ori Goldberg, an Israeli expert on Iran and Shi’ism. “They look at Israel and see a bull in a china shop.”

Israelis stand on top of the remains of an Iranian missile in the Negev desert near Arad, on October 2, 2024, in the aftermath of an Iranian missile attack on Israel. (Menahem KAHANA / AFP)

After the Nasrallah strike, Khamenei was even transferred to a secure location inside the country with heightened security measures in place, two regional officials briefed by Tehran told Reuters.

“The Islamic Republic’s credibility as a patron and leader of revolutionary Shiism was on the line, and Khamenei seemed caught like a deer in the headlights – worried that if he goes all in to save Hezbollah by attacking Israel, he and Iran will be the next target for massive retaliation or even worse,” said John Hannah, senior fellow at JINSA who served as national security advisor to former Vice President Dick Cheney.

If he did nothing, Hannah said, Israel, the Arab world, and the rest of Iran’s axis of resistance would see that the emperor — or supreme leader — has no clothes.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu makes a statement to the public following an Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel, October 1, 2024. (Avi Ohayon/GPO)

“They needed to save face somehow, but on all sides of the equation the risks of catastrophe are high and the reward low.”

In an atmosphere of alarm and concern that the region was suddenly becoming very dangerous for the regime after a year in which the Islamic Republic itself enjoyed a rather comfortable war, the hardliners and the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps seem to have the upper hand now. They hoped that a show of force would reset the rules of the games, which were changing quickly and undermining the network they had built across the region.

Iran certainly doesn’t want to spark a war with Israel, or the US, but it seems a foregone conclusion that it will suffer a direct strike on its territory, something it has worked hard to avoid.

Unnamed Israeli officials have told local media that the country could respond to the ballistic missile attack by striking strategic infrastructure, such as gas or oil rigs, or by directly targeting Iran’s nuclear sites.

Targeted assassinations and attacks on Iran’s air defense systems are also possible responses, Axios reported.

Illustrative: A handout picture provided on April 30, 2017, shows a general view of the Setareh Khalij Fars (Star of the Persian Gulf) oil refinery in the Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas. (Handout/Iranian Presidency/AFP)

But an Israeli official told The Times of Israel that the attack would be designed to cause “significant financial damage” to Iran. That seems to indicate that Israel would target Iran’s oil facilities, a key component of the country’s struggling economy. Oil revenues make up around 20 percent of GDP, and the economy’s fortune rises and falls with the oil exports.

With greater economic challenges, the regime will have to keep an eye on domestic unrest, among a public in which significant numbers despise its rulers. And the more it has to pour into subsidies and handouts, the less Iran has on hand to fund its proxies, including the battered Hezbollah.

It is that very success against Hezbollah that offers Israel a freer hand against Tehran.

“The Sword of Damocles that Nasrallah and his battle-hardened terror army equipped with nearly 200,000 rockets was holding over Israel’s head is largely no more,” said Hannah. “While they still may be capable of causing real problems and pain, the odds that the organization is still capable of threatening the very viability of Israeli society, as so many feared, have been dramatically reduced by Israel’s offensive.”

And there is a more earth-shifting change in Israeli thinking that many are missing, as they focus on the trees and not the forest.

After decades of a defensive deterrence and containment strategy, which failed spectacularly, after October 7 Israel finally shifted to the strategic offensive against the Iranian alliance.

Troops of the 36th Division are seen operating in southern Lebanon, in handout image published October 2, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

“The Iron Swords War does not stand on its own,” wrote Israeli military theorist Eran Ortal. “The campaign in Gaza is a critical transition stage, both conceptual and practical, during which Israel is moving from defense to offense in a long war with Iran’s proxies.”

Iran might want to reestablish the old order with its missile attack, but Israel is evidently not going back to an arrangement in which dangerous enemies were allowed to build up forces a few hundred yards from Israeli homes, and in which the Islamic Republic knew it was secure.

With all the dramatic developments, decision-makers in Washington and Jerusalem are also keeping a close eye on Iran’s nuclear program. As the region shifts, the Iranians’ thinking will as well. They could become more cautious, as they did after the US invaded Iraq in 2003. Or they might slam their feet on the gas and rush to weaponize before Israel and the US take advantage of Iran’s newfound vulnerability.

“The doctrines of preemption and prevention are now back with a vengeance as part of Israel’s national security doctrine,” said Hannah. “They won’t be going anywhere soon.”

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

Lindsey Graham slams Biden, G7 for urging Israeli ‘proportional response’ to Iranian attack

Sen. Lindsey Graham criticized Biden’s proportional response suggestion, urging Israel to defend itself against Iran’s nuclear ambitions and threats.

By HANNAH SARISOHNOCTOBER 3, 2024 22:25Updated: OCTOBER 3, 2024 22:31

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-823137&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The idea of telling Israel what targets to strike ignores reality and “is the mentality that existed in the 1930s,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said in a statement provided to the Jerusalem Post on Thursday in response to President Biden saying the G7 agreed Israel has a right to respond to Iran’s missile attack but should do so proportionally. 

On Wednesday, Biden spoke with G7 countries — the US, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom — on the Israeli-Iranian crisis as the proxy war between the two arch-foes threatened to spill over into a larger regional conflict. The G7 discussed Iran’s “unacceptable attack against Israel” and the need for a coordinated response, including additional sanctions on Iran, the White House said. 

Biden on Wednesday also said he would not support an Israeli strike on an Iranian nuclear facility. 

Graham accused the G7 of “viewing Iran as a normal nation,” which it’s not, he added. 

“When it comes to Iran, the regime is a theocracy dedicated to destroying the Jewish state, driving the West out of the Middle East, and stopping reconciliation between the Arab world and Israel,” Graham said. 

He described the Ayatollah as a “religious Nazi.”

Graham urges Israel to defend against threat

“Iran is not trying to build peaceful nuclear power plants,” he said. “The regime is trying to build a nuclear bomb to achieve its religious objectives. If you don’t understand that, you’re not listening to what Iran is saying, and you’re not watching what they are doing throughout the world.”

Graham said he believed if Iran had a nuclear weapon, the Ayatollah would use it against Israel. 

“For the sake of our friends in Israel, we cannot allow the world to miscalculate Iran, just as it did with Hitler and the Nazis,” he said. “Would a proportional response be launching 200 ballistic missiles from Israel into Iran, mimicking what the Iranians did to Israel?

 “To my friends in Israel, one holocaust directed at the Jewish people is enough,” he added. “Do what you have to do to defend yourselves against those who would kill you simply because you are Jewish.”

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Graham is among a number of Republicans calling for maximum pressure against Iran in response to its attacks this week. 

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul said the Biden-Harris administration should place maximum pressure on Iran and its proxies rather than pressure Israel for a ceasefire. 

ISRAEL/SYRIA

This is a big assassination: two Qassir brothers have now been eliminated!

(Jerusalem Post)

Terror royalty: Nasrallah’s son-in-law killed in airstrike on Damascus, days after brother – report

Hassan Jafar Qassir’s assassination is another severe blow to Hezbollah as its leadership has been slowly picked off in Israeli operations. 

By YUVAL BARNEAOCTOBER 2, 2024 22:42Updated: OCTOBER 2, 2024 23:57

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-823039&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Hassan Nasrallah’s son-in-law, Hassan Jafar Qassir, may have been killed in airstrikes in the Mezzeh neighborhood in Damascus on Wednesday, according to early reports published by Sky News Arabic.

Hassan is the brother of Muhammad Jafar Qassir, who was killed in a strike in Beirut on Wednesday during the Iranian attack on Israel.

Hassan’s assassination is another severe blow to Hezbollah as its leadership has been slowly picked off in Israeli operations. 

Qassir brothers 

The Qassir brothers have been deeply involved in terrorism since at least the 1982 Lebanon War, when on November 11, Ahmad Qassir drove his car into an Israeli base in Tyre, detonating the explosives onboard. This marked the first suicide bombing in Lebanese history.

Ahmad was guided by one of Hezbollah’s founding figures, Imad Mughniya, who was mysteriously assassinated in Damascus in 2008.

According to Hezbollah’s official news bulletin, al-Ahed, Ahmad’s attack “marked the beginning of all martyrdom operations, and was the torch of resistance among youth, who were eager to defend their homeland.”

His death is commemorated every year with “Martyr Day,” in which Hezbollah celebrates suicide bombing. 

Ahmad’s attack still required the religious seal of approval in the form of a fatwa from one of Shia Islam’s highest-ranked clerics, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini. 

Terror royalty

With the fatwa secured, the Qassir family swiftly became terror royalty, with Ahmad being termed the “first martyr.”

His brothers, Muhammed and Hassan, both rose in the ranks of the nascent Hezbollah.

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Muhammed became a leading figure in the deliveries of Iranian weapons from Syria, and Hassan married Hassan Nasrallah’s daughter, cementing their connection to Hezbollah and Iran.

Muhammed became such a notorious figure the US offered a $10 million reward for information leading to his death or capture.

In 2018, the US Treasury Department designated him a Specially Designated Global Terrorist, meaning “among other consequences, all property and interests in property of Qassir that are subject to US jurisdiction are blocked, and US persons are generally prohibited from engaging in any transactions with Qassir.”

According to the sanctions, he helped oversee several front companies that funneled money into Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, in particular through the sale of oil and other untraceable products.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

IDF’s 252nd Division eliminates nearly 500 Gaza terrorists over last months

IDF’s 252nd Division eliminated over 450 terrorists in Gaza through raids, airstrikes, and destroyed an eight-kilometer tunnel network.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 3, 2024 15:25Updated: OCTOBER 3, 2024 15:27

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3780336&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-823093IDF footage of the activities of the 252nd Division in the Gaza Strip. Footage published October 3, 2024. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-hamas-war%2Farticle-823093&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241002_d6a908b5f4ecf1eb4ffca140ba177a8857255231&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Over the last three months, troops of the IDF’s 252nd Division have eliminated over 450 terrorists in the Gaza Strip, the IDF reported on Thursday afternoon.

The terror operatives were reportedly killed via a combination of close-quarters combat engagements and airstrikes.

Further, over the previous weeks, 252nd Division troops have conducted targeted raids in central Gaza, the IDF added.

Armed terrorists moving northward

Moreover, IDF soldiers continued to operate to uncover underground terror facilities and have located and destroyed a network of tunnel routes estimated to have been around eight kilometers long, the military continued.

The IDF also reported that this week, the 14th brigade identified dozens of armed terrorists moving northward in the Gaza Strip.

The terrorists dispersed after the IDF targeted them with artillery, airstrikes, and mortar fire, the IDF military noted.

END

RUSSIA/USA/ISRAEL/SYRIA

JUST IN:

War Insights on X: “#BREAKING #URGENT News of a violent shelling targeting the Russian Hmeimim air base on the Syrian coast. https://t.co/cEpiglwh97″ / X

Robert H to us:

“”This will not go down well with Russia.
Perhaps why certain Russians received a warning in Israel to leave today.
Russia has previously told Israel that its’ bases are hands off.
Expect a response. When this occurs gold will move sharply upwards.”

HARVEY: Israel would never fire upon Russia but uSA?

https://x.com/warinsights4you/status/1841666880727097350

end

Russian Anti-Air Missiles Likely Engaged Israeli Jets Attacking Syria’s Coast

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 01:45 PM

Israeli strikes have hit Syria for multiple straight days, with the latest being on the outskirts of Damascus, in the western part of the Rif Dimashq Governorate near Lebanon, on Thursday morning. Syrian national media says anti-air defense missiles are confronting “hostile targets”.

But it was an overnight major attack on Syria’s coast which has for the first time brought Israel close to clashing with the Russian military. An Israeli drone as well as warplanes reportedly targeted sites in the coastal Syrian city of Jableh before daybreak. A weapons depot was apparently targeted and destroyed, which crucially was situated near the Hmeimim Air Base, the largest Russian air base in Syria.

Chinese state media has cited a war monitor to say that “Syrian air defenses and Russian forces responded to the attack within 40 to 50 minutes.”

Large explosions were heard and witnessed throughout the area, and resulted in large fires, to which emergency personnel responded.

The same aforementioned report detailed that “While there is no official confirmation, the pro-government Sham FM radio said the sounds heard in the skies over Jableh were the air defenses intercepting targets off the coast.”

Unverified reports in Arabic media say that the Russian airbase was directly struck, but other reports dispute this:

Syria TV:

📌 Israel bombed Russia's Hmeimim airbase an hour after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to "Qeshm" Airlines.

📌 The Israeli strike did not target the runways or towers at Hmeimim Airbase and Latakia's civilian airport.

📌 The bombing targeted other military… pic.twitter.com/UxBU8iWHZm

— Levant 24 (@Levant_24_) October 3, 2024

Regardless, what is clear is that the strikes were at least very close to the Russian airbase, creating the strong likelihood that Russian anti-air defenses were triggered into action.

Throughout the Syrian proxy war, there had been many close calls where Israel and Russia nearly clashed, but this has been carefully avoided.

The most deadly example involved a September 2018 Israeli attack on Syria which ended in the downing of a large Russian reconnaissance plane. It had been patrolling over the Syrian coastal area during a surprise Israeli air raid, but was reportedly struck by ‘friendly fire’ from Syrian anti-air batteries as they attempted to repel the Israeli planes. 15 Russian crew members were killed.

So far there has been no official government confirmation that Russia engaged inbound Israeli jets in this newest incident over Jableh and Hmeimim Air Base. Russian accounts have denied that the base was directly attacked. Moscow has tended to downplay prior incidents, perhaps wishing to maintain its delicate relations with Israel to avoid escalation.

Israel reportedly struck a warehouse of Iranian and Syrian weapons (you can see missiles or rockets cooking off) in the town of Jableh near the main Russian base of Hmeimim in Syria. The base itself has not been touched, per Russian accounts, and the Russians apparently tried to… pic.twitter.com/kyTlaPWWnu

— Yaroslav Trofimov (@yarotrof) October 3, 2024

* * *

Syrian and regional analyst Kevork Almassian has provided the following commentary [emphasis ZH]…

Israel’s recent large-scale military aggression on the Syrian coast near the city of Jableh could mark a significant turning point in the ongoing regional conflict. This attack followed a meeting on Wednesday between Alexander Lavrentiev, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy on Syria, and Ali Akbar Ahmadian, Secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council (SNSC).

During the talks, Lavrentiev expressed hope that Israel would heed Iran’s warnings. Israel appears to have interpreted this meeting, along with Lavrentiev’s statements, as tacit Russian approval of Iran’s retaliatory actions. Consequently, Israel targeted warehouses of the Russian forces. This likely explains the joint response from Syrian and Russian air defenses, marking a departure from previous Israeli strikes, where Russia had refrained from direct involvement in the defense effort.

Following the conclusion of the attack at 5:50 AM, a Russian air patrol was observed over Latakia. The Israeli strike on a Russian facility in Syria is a serious escalation. Netanyahu’s actions suggest he is no longer solely confronting the “Axis of Resistance” but is also risking Russian interests. Should Moscow choose to respond, it could dramatically alter the balance of power in the region.

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

38 nurses, 46 infants have “died suddenly” in the US, mostly this past week

Note: Some of the infant deaths were published earlier this year and late last year.

Mark Crispin MillerOct 3

READ IN APP

38 nurses “died suddenly”:

Martha Jane Finck (Wise), 49

September 30, 2024

New Lexington, Ohio – Martha Jane Finck (Wise) passed away in her home on September 25th surrounded by her loving children and her spouse, Richard Dieble. Nursing wasn’t just her career, but her passion. She was a healer and always wanted to take care of people. She found beauty in almost everything and anything. She was a fighter, a lover and most importantly a wonderful mother.

No cause of death reported.

Link

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Upgrade to paid

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Clinton Richard Jorgensen, 58

September 27, 2024

Tomah, WI  – Clinton Richard Jorgensen passed away on Saturday, September 14, 2024, at the age of 58. He spent his last day spending valuable time with family and friends. Clint earned is associate’s degree in nursing from Western Technical College and UW La Crosse and dedicated over 25 years to his career as a traveling nurse, impacting many lives with his expertise and kindness.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Karen “K.J.” Buckman, 60

September 24, 2024

Galena, Missouri – Karen “K.J.” Buckman, 60, of Galena, Missouri, passed away Monday, September 23, 2024, in Kansas City, MO. She graduated from Lone Jack High School and Missouri Western State University with a B.S.N. Bachelor of Science in Nursing. She worked at Mosaic Life Care Hospital as a Registered Nurse. K.J. was a country girl who loved being outside, fishing and hunting and keeping herself busy.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Debra Joe Bostic Cantrell, 48

September 24, 2024

Ronceverte, WV – Debra Joe Bostic Cantrell, 48, of Ronceverte, passed away September 18, 2024.  Debra was a Registered Nurse with a Bachelor of Science degree and was studying to be a nurse practitioner. She was a graduate of Mt. State University in Beckley and Dabney S. Lancaster Community College in Clifton Forge, VA.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Cathy Lippincott, 60

September 24, 2024

Florence, NJ – Cathy Lippincott of Florence passed away suddenly on Thursday, September 12, 2024 at her home.  Cathy was a longtime registered nurse and most recently worked at Deborah Heart and Lung Center in Browns Mills.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Jennifer L. Rodgers, 54

September 24, 2024

Anderson, Indiana – Jennifer L. Rodgers, 54, went to be with the Lord unexpectedly on Thursday, September 12, 2024, at Ascension St. Vincent Hospital in Anderson, surrounded by family. A Highland High School graduate, later attended IUPUI, graduating from the school of nursing with her bachelor’s degree. Jennifer went on as a nurse, caring for others for 30 years. She loved her family dearly, enjoyed spending time making her jewelry, and loved her dogs, Baby and Josie.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Reported on August 19:

Leslie Larkin Fanning, 67

August 19, 2024

Asheville, NC – Leslie Larkin Fanning, born on July 29, 1957, passed away peacefully on August 17, 2024, in Asheville, NC, at the age of 67. Leslie’s journey through life was marked by her unwavering dedication to caring for and giving to others.  From her tributes ” I am at a loss of words. I truly lost one of my oldest best friends. She was more than a friend she was like a sister. We graduated high school and nursing school together.”

No cause of death reported.

Link

Karen Eltringham, 63

September 24, 2024

Athens, PA  – Karen Eltringham, 63, of Athens, PA, passed away unexpectedly on Thursday, September 19, 2024 at Strong Memorial Hospital, with her family by her side  Karen graduated from the Robert Packer School of Nursing in 1981. She spent the next 43 years working at the hospital caring for patients and the community as an ICU and Cardiac Cath Lab Nurse. She loved her family fiercely and enjoyed spending all of her free time with her husband, children and grandchildren.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Debbie Lee Foster, 58

September 28, 2024

Debbie Lee Foster, 58, of Greeneville, Tennessee, passed away surrounded by her friends and family on Thursday, September 26, 2024, at the Lakebridge, A Waters Community, in Johnson City, Tennessee.  Debbie served the world as a nurse the majority of her life and was a dedicated nurse at Lakebridge of Johnson City, prior to her last month there as a resident.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Laurie Silva, 66

September 29, 2024

Laurie Silva, of Littleton, Massachusetts, passed away with her family by her side on September 27th, 2024, in Lincoln, Massachusetts. While having had great success in academia earlier in life, she chose to put those aside in order to raise her children. Later, she returned to education and became a nurse, to further help and care for others.

No cause of death reported.

Link

LynneMarie Flynn (nee Hansberry), 65

September 29, 2024

Cinnaminson, New Jersey – With heavy hearts, we announce the passing of LynneMarie Flynn (nee Hansberry), loving wife, incredible mother, cherished family member, devoted friend, and a beloved nurse, who left us on September 26 at the age of 65.   As a nurse for over 40 years, she touched countless lives with her compassion and expertise, always going above and beyond to ensure her patients felt valued and understood. Her commitment to her profession was matched only by her love for her family and friends.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Angela “Angie” Auten Wood, 63

September 30, 2024

Waynesville, NC – Mrs. Angela “Angie” Auten Wood, 63, passed away peacefully surrounded by her loving family on Wednesday, September 25th, 2024, at Atrium Health Cleveland.  Angie was a graduate of Shelby High School and went on to pursue her dream of becoming a nurse at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, where she earned a Bachelor of Science degree in Nursing.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Stacy Shannon Stroud, 51

September 28, 2024

New Boston, Texas – Stacy Shannon Stroud, born September 30, 1973, went to be with Lord on Friday, July 12, 2024, after a brief battle with cancer with her family by her side. She was employed at Christus Trinity Clinic as a nurse; she loved her work family and took great pride in taking care of her patients.

Link

Reported on August 4:

Julie Erdmann, 61

August 4, 2024

Tinley Park, IL – Julie Erdmann, age 61, passed away on July 31, 2024, at her home in Tinley Park, surrounded by the love of her family. Julie led a fulfilling career as a Registered Nurse that spanned over three decades.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Tara Eileen Pinney, 61

September 28, 2024

Tara Eileen Pinney, 61, of Baldwinsville, NY, passed away on September 28, 2024. She graduated from C.W. Baker High School before going on to Cazenovia College to attain her degree in Nursing. Tara’s talents were many; she was an accomplished seamstress and horse rider, and gifted psychiatric nurse.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Kelly Ann Hoosier, 42

September 28, 2024

Harts, WV – Kelly Ann Hoosier, 42, departed this life on September 26, 2024, at Harts High School, Harts, WV.  Kelly was an amazing nurse and loved helping people and making people smile. She enjoyed singing, going to church, going hiking with her boys, and spending time with her granddaughter, Lydia.

No cause of death reported.

DR PAUL ALEXZANDER

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BOOM! Dr. Peter McCullough offering superb advice on detoxifying & dissolving devastating effects of the synthetic spike protein from the Malone Bancel Weissman et al. mRNA gene vaccine (TWC.healh)

McCullough Protocol Base Spike Detoxification from The Wellness Company (TWC, CEO Foster Coulson); Fundamental in Resolving Vaccine Injury Syndromes; the mRNA vaccine is deadly, consider these

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 2

READ IN APP

McCullough stands out among the COVID doctors Iso called Freedom Fighters) and stood as a leader in the COVID push back and remains someone I admire. He remains a champion and has saved many lives with his counsel. I stand with him supporting TWC (TWC.health) technically with Risch etc.

TWC and it’s people remain an entity I will continue to support.

Key words by McCullough that you must be aware of as we look for options to mitigate the ravages of the mRNA vaccine induced spike protein: This approach to try to dissolve the spike protein made from the deadly Malone et al. mRNA vaccine is best, optimal, as it is “the best approach for now until there are large, prospective, double-blind placebo controlled randomized trials of combinations of agents that measure meaningful outcomes. To my knowledge, no such trials have been planned as of yet.”

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

Vaccine induced spike protein ‘incites inflammation, oxidative stress, coagulation, and all the downstream effects that result in symptoms.’

Base Spike Detox Trio– The Wellness Company (twc.health)

We see signals of benefit. Note I am not talking about if there is a virus or the virus or the like. I am talking about options for those who took the Malone et al. mRNA shot and got harmed…and want the spike protein out of them…there is no reason, none, for anyone, any child to take these COVID gene vaccines…I argue the Malone Sahin et al. vaccine was never ever needed and all of this was a fraud, from the COVID fake pandemic to the vaccine…all for money, power, control, killing…bad people did this and must be held accountable and we need Trump to ensure many are hung after courts declare their guilt…

Base Spike Detox Trio– The Wellness Company (twc.health)

END

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Canadian Government Admits Deaths Surged Among Covid-Boosted CitizensThe Canadian government has been forced to admit that death rates surged among citizens who received Covid mRNA “booster” shots.READ MORE

‘Powerful’ Elites, Bankers, Big Pharma Execs to Be Named as Diddy’s Accomplices, Victims’ Lawyer warnsA lawyer representing more than 100 of Sean “Diddy” Combs’s alleged abuse victims has warned that a ” lot of names” of “powerful” individuals are about to be exposed as accomplices in the rap music mogul’s horrific crimes.READ MORE

Record-Breaking 23-Year-Old Athlete Dies Suddenly: ‘Worst Nightmare’Record-breaking California college track star Shelby Daniele has tragically died suddenly, according to her family.READ MORE

Kamala Harris Says Biden’s Endorsement Gave Her InsomniaDemocrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris said she suffered from insomnia after lame-duck President Joe Biden endorsed her as his 2024 election replacement.READ MORE

Biden Admits Handlers Blocked Him from Attending Olympics: ‘They Wouldn’t Let Me’President Joe Biden has claimed that his faceless, unelected handlers refused to let him attend the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris, France.READ MORE

Another Top Aide to NYC’s Democrat Mayor Eric Adams Resigns amid Corruption ScandalTom Pearson, a confidant and top advisor to New York City’s embattled Democrat Mayor Eric Adams, has become the latest high-profile official to resign.READ MORE

Legal Analyst Glenn Kirschner Warns Appeals Court May Reverse Trump Classified Documents DismissalLegal analyst Glenn Kirschner has warned that the appeals court could reverse a federal judge’s recent dismissal of President Donald Trump’s classified documents case.READ MORE

Seven Confirmed Dead in Tel Aviv Terrorist Attack, Many More WoundedSeven people have been murdered and dozens more wounded in a terrorist attack against Israeli civilians in Tel Aviv.READ MORE

Tim Walz Melts Down When Asked about China Lies, Calls Himself a ‘Knucklehead’Democrat vice presidential nominee Tim Walz struggled when he faced President Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance during their Tuesday night debate.READ MORE

Gavin Newsom Signs Law Banning Voter ID Rules in CaliforniaCalifornia’s Democrat Governor Gavin Newsom has signed a bill into law to ban voter ID requirements for elections in the state.READ MORE

Migrants Arrested for Looting Tennessee Homes amid Hurricane Helene DevastationA gang of criminal migrants has been arrested for looting residential homes in an area of Tennessee that was devastated by Hurricane Helene.READ MORE

Tim Walz Appointee’s Home Decorated with Images of Communist Dictators, Scrubbed Photo ShowsA top appointee in the administration of Minnesota’s Democrat Governor Tim Walz is a great admirer of brutal, murderous, communist dictators, according to her controversial home decor choices.READ MORE

‘American Pickers’ Star Frank Fritz Dead at 60Frank Fritz, the star of the hit TV show “American Pickers,” has died, according to reports.READ MORE

VIEW MORE

EVOL

EST NEWS:

Japan Issues Warning: ‘Self-Amplifying’ mRNA ‘Vaccines’ Will Trigger ‘Worldwide Disaster’ – EVOLRead more…WATCH: JD Vance corrects CBS moderator ‘fact-check’ and they CUT HIS MIC – EVOLRead more…‘I’m a Knucklehead’: Walz Gives Disastrous Answer When Questioned on Inaccurate Claims at Debate – EVOLRead more…Walz says he’s become ‘friends with school shooters’ in VP debate… – EVOLRead more…Walz forced to correct record on whether he was in China for the Tiananmen Square protests – EVOLRead more…CBS Moderators Puzzled After Tim Walz Said He “Misspoke” About Being In Hong Kong During Tiananmen Square Protests – EVOLRead more…WATCH: Tim Walz turned into a stumbling mess when confronted on his lie that he was in Hong Kong during Tiananmen Square – EVOLRead more…WATCH: Tim Walz said “I’ve become friends with school shooters” – EVOLRead more.

NEWS ADDICTS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

Oil Surges On Report Biden “Discussing” Strike Of Iranian Oil Facilities

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 10:32 AM

With the world on edge over the shape of Israel’s retaliation to Iran for recent ballistic missile assault, which just like in April was performative as it damaged absolutely nothing and killed just one person, a Palestinian, earlier we learned that Biden – who may or may not still be president – is opposing an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons sites, while also informing Iran not to attack its mid-east bases. And yet, Israel has to do something, which is why moments ago oil surged news, that when Biden was asked by reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, he said “we’re discussing that.”

Crude oil prices spiked on the news, having already jumped about 5% in the past three days.

As reported previously, until now, the market has been largely unaffected by escalating tensions in the region as shipments of physical oil barrels haven’t been interrupted, and Goldman noted that oil prices do not incorporate any geopolitical risk premium. However, any disruption to supplies from the region would drive oil much higher, a major risk for the US with elections just about a month away.

While it’s still unclear how Israel will respond to Iran, what we do know is that the Persian Gulf country is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC. Crude supplies amounting to about a fifth of global demand and a large amount of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz along the Iranian coast. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar send shipments through the key waterway.

Here’s a map showing Iran’s major energy installations, including oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries and storage terminals:

In his discussion of how Israel may retaliate, Rabobank’s Michael Every said yesterday that “the list of Israeli targets proportionate to their escalation vs. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is short” with oil infrastructure the most likely target.

Military radar systems would leave Iran open for IDF air attacks. Iran’s nuclear program would require US assistance. The simplest target is oil infrastructure to remove the earnings paying for its and its proxies’ weapons, and to destabilise the regime. Yet Iranian state Telegram chatgroups, and an Iranian professor of literature(!) interviewed by the BBC, say if their oil is hit, they will burn Saudi, Kuwaiti, UAE, Bahraini, and Azerbaijani oil – an escalation threat we have been flagging as a fat tail risk since immediately after October 7. (Note Qatar, a key supplier of LNG to the EU, is absent from this list despite ostensibly being a major US ally…) As such, the US might also oppose this move: but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Of course, Israel hitting Iran too hard could mean war, dragging others in; even so, it likely sees more risk in doing too little with its next strike than doing too much.

In other words, while the US backs a “proportionate” Israeli strike on Iran for its recent missile attack to avoid escalation, this is not Israel’s strategic doctrine, and it’s determined to cause Iran political and economic pain, implying nuclear or oil targets. The US wants military ones which won’t stop escalation and logically still end up with nuclear and oil, with a less propitious backdrop for Israel. Note: Jerusalem ignored US prohibitions when acting against nuclear programs in Osirak in Iraq in 1981 and Deir-ez-Zor in Syria in 2007 and deliberately didn’t inform the White House of its recent attacks vs. Hamas and Hezbollah in advance. In other words, a US “Don’t” carries little weight in proportion to what it once did, and markets might want to bear that in mind.

Guess Iran wasn’t scared by Kamala saying “don’t.”

Who could’ve guessed? pic.twitter.com/HQobJsGApD

— John Hasson (@SonofHas) October 1, 2024

Summary: Biden is now boxed in. Either he puts taxpayer money where his diplomatic mouth is, and sides with Israel in attacking Iran, sending the price of oil and gas soaring and crushing Kamala’s election odds, or confirm he is a puppet of the Iran regime, which should remain untouchable until the elections to keep oil prices lower, rising a unilateral attack by Israel anyway, demonstrating to the world just how irrelevant he has become.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.1041 DOWN 0.0004

USA/ YEN 146.77 UP 0.198 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3097 DOWN .0165

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3587 UP 0.0030 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 30 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED

 Hang Seng CLOSED

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .05%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL MOSTLY MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED

/SHANGHAI CLOSED

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.05%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 743.30POINTS OR 1.97%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2645.30

silver:$31.46

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 101.65 UP 22 BASIS POINTS FROM  WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.718%  UP 4 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.835% up 1 AND 4/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.942 UP 0 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.478 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1480 UP 4 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.1029 DOWN .0017 OR 17 basis points

USA/Japan: 146.80 UP 0.233 OR YEN IS DOWN 23 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.0180 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0049 OR 49 BASIS pts  to 1.3555

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED XXXX (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.0496)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.18 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.835

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  3.855% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.180 UP 2 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.705 UP 5  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2658.00

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.08

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 8.34 PTS OR 0.10%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 149/.34 OR 0.78%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 99.81 PTS OR 1/43%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 8.20 OR 0.07%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 505.23 OR 1.50%

WTI Oil price  73.97 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  77.87 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  94.75 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  36/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1480 UP 4 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.0180 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.122 UP 7 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.906 UP 8

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.1029 DOWN 0.0017 OR 17 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3122 DOWN 0.0140 OR 140 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.0180 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.835

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 146.80 UP 0.233 BASIS PTS//

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3555 UP 0.0049 CDN dollar DOWN 49 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 73.97

Brent OIL:  77.81

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 3.8555

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 5 BASIS PTS to 4.180%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT  3.705

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.122 UP 8 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.909 UP 8 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 101.72 UP 29 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.16 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  94.75 UP 0 AND  25/100 roubles

GOLD  2,658.00 3:30 PM

SILVER: 32.08 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 39.42 PTS OR 0.92%

NASDAQ UP 29.28 PTS OR 0.15%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.75 DOWN 0.51 PTS OR 2.,65%

GLD: $245.66 UP 0.05OR 0.02%

SLV/ $29.00 UP 0.42 OR 1.47%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Biden ‘Bombs’ & Bad-Flation Send Bond Yields & Black Gold Higher, Stocks Pause Into Payrolls

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Did Biden “mis-speak” yet again when he said they were “discussing” bombing Iran oil facilities? For now, oil doesn’t think he’s senile and WTI is trading at one-month highs…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that implies pump-prices are going higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Solid Services PMI headline data was besmirched by ugly surges in underlying inflation data… and that combined with the surge in oil prices prompted a sizable rise in bond yields on the day (yields up 6-8bps across the curve today)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and a notable drop in rate-cut expectations. 2024 is now a coin-flip between 2 and 3 more cuts (2025 remains at 4x25bps cuts)…

Source: Bloomberg

The hawkish shift in STIRs has helped send the USD higher (amid geopol safe haven flows too)…

Source: Bloomberg

US equity markets drifted lower overnight with futures dumping at the European open. Some chaotic swings around the US cash open but once Europe was closed the selling pressure resumed with Small Caps the laggard and S&P/Nasdaq the least ugly horse in today’s glue factory…

Despite the NVDA CEO expounding on how “insane” the demand for the new Blackwell chips is, the question is will H2 2024 be a breakout or a range like 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Vol is priced for some serious action around tomorrow’s payrolls print…

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks are ignoring the risk for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds are back at one month highs and stocks fading a bit as the two asset-classes begin to re-converge into tomorrow’s jobs data…

Source: Bloomberg

This is worth paying attention to – BEs are surging higher on the heels of higher oil prices. This is NOT what Powell and his pals want to see…

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dollar strength, gold is holding on to its gains….

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was basically unchanged today, finding support at $60,000 after the last couple days collapse…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, does this look like an economy that needed 50bps of rate-cuts and is priced for 75bps more bps this year?

US Macro Surprise data surged back into the positive today, to its highest in six months…

Source: Bloomberg

Presumably tomorrow’s payrolls print will answer all questions clearly and unambiguously.

Meanwhile, USA sovereign risk continues to push quietly higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Is that the ultimate hedge for a Harris victory?

MORNING TRADING

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

DO NOT PUT ANY FAITH IN THIS CONTRIVED DATA:

Jobless Claims Remain Low Despite 50%-Plus Surge In Job Cuts

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 08:36 AM

On the heels of a 53.4% YoY rise in job cut announcements (released by Challenger, Gray, & Christmas), initial jobless claims remain in a world of their own, rising very modestly to 225k from 219k…

Source: Bloomberg

Initial claims (SA and NSA) remain rangebound – showing absolutely ZERO indication of labor market stress…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims were flat at 1.826mm Americans

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, jobless claims are also completely decoupled from the BLS’ official unemployment rate…

Source: Bloomberg

So, JOLTS and Claims are super strong while ‘soft’ survey data (ISM/PMI/UMICH/CONF BOARD) all show labor market indicators tumbling…

Source: Bloomberg

…take your pick to support your political pundit’s choice of how many more rate-cuts we get this year (with stocks and home prices at record highs)

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

SWAMP STORIES

Bank Of America Customers Report Widespread Outage, Zero Balances

Wednesday, Oct 02, 2024 – 05:20 PM

Bank of America customers on Wednesday reported having problems accessing their bank accounts or that their account balances currently show $0.

The outage started at around 12:30 p.m. E.T. on Wednesday, according to the tracking website Downdetector.

About an hour later, more than 20,000 user complaints were submitted via the website.

The Epoch Times’ Jack Phillips reports that numerous Bank of America users have posted screenshots of empty account balances on social media.

An Epoch Times staff member also reported not being able to log in to their Bank of America account.

Some users on social media stated that Bank of America had not yet alerted them to the issue.

Meanwhile, some users have reported having problems with Zelle, the digital payment system that is used by multiple banks and is owned by Bank of America and several other banks.

It’s not clear how many customers were impacted or when the problem will be resolved.

The Charlotte, North Carolina-based bank has not released details about what’s causing the issue.

On the social media platform X, Bank of America’s team was responding to complaints by asking for additional information.

However, it did not appear that the bank provided information about the nature of the outage or how long it could take to fix.

“Hi, we are sorry to see this. If you’re still experiencing the concern, please click below to let us know. Thank you,” one Bank of America representative wrote on X to a user who expressed concerns about logging in.

Another post said:

“Hello, your concern caught our attention. Please use the link below to connect with us and send additional details. We’d be happy to follow up with you.”

The Epoch Times contacted the company for comment on Wednesday but received no response by publication time.

Last year, fellow banking giant Wells Fargo issued an alert on its website after customers reported not seeing their paychecks and direct deposits in their accounts.

Several users on social media were quick to remind everyone of BofA CEO Brian Moynihan’s comments just a few years ago…

“Bitcoin is highly Speculative, you could wake up one day and your account would be worth zero.”

And it’s gone…

Bank of America Customers following Countrywide outages & their accounts showing $0.000

It’s all so obvious. pic.twitter.com/z6sL19ssMC

— Concerned Citizen (@BGatesIsaPyscho) October 2, 2024

END

America Last: After Spending $640 Million On Migrants And Billions Abroad, FEMA Suddenly ‘Broke’

Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 09:25 AM

The Biden-Harris administration’s ‘America Last’ policies have left the country vulnerable. Between draining the strategic petroleum reserve, sending hundreds of billions in cash and equipment to Ukraine (such as electrical transformers that are now needed for Hurricane Helene), and FEMA spending $640 million to help migrants, the agency tasked with emergency preparedness is now ‘broke,’ and doesn’t have enough money to get through hurricane season which typically lasts through November.

According to AP,

The agency is being stretched as it works with states to assess damage from Hurricane Helene and delivers meals, water, generators and other critical supplies. The storm struck Florida last week, then plowed through several states in the Southeast, flooding towns and killing more than 160 people.

Mayorkas was not specific about how much additional money the agency may need, but his remarks on Air Force One underscored concerns voiced by President Joe Biden and some lawmakers earlier this week that Congress may need to pass a supplemental spending bill this fall to help states with recovery efforts.

“We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting,” said Mayorkas, adding “FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season.“

And while the administration sends billions more to Ukraine, VP Kamala Harris has offered a laughable $750 in FEMA relief for hurricane victims.

Basically:

As journalist Breanna Morello notes, “Days before Hurricane Helene, the media was helping Democrats push for more FEMA funding,” but “FEMA funds are being abused and given to illegal aliens.”

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-3&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1841811723507880393&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Famerica-last-after-spending-640-million-migrants-and-billions-abroad-fema-suddenly-broke&sessionId=8a8013a208db18f0ac94cd69aadf976f58843cda&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

“Communities were wiped off the map,” said North Carolina governor, Roy Cooper, at a Tuesday press conference.

As American Greatness notes further;

Mayorkas made his comments as Joe Biden and Kamala Harris traveled to the Southeast for photo ops amid the devastation left in the storm’s wake.

Harris visited Augusta, Georgia, one of the cities hit hardest by Hurricane, two days after Trump, along with Christian evangelist Franklin Graham’s relief organization Samaritan’s Purse, surveyed the damage in Valdosta, Georgia, and passed out truckloads of supplies. During her stop, Harris announced that FEMA would provide whopping $750 in relief funds for people who have immediate needs.

As of April, more than $174 billion in American tax dollars have been appropriated to assist Ukraine. A total of $640.9 million has been spent to feed, clothe and house noncitizens.

Congress recently provided $20 billion in funding to FEMA’s disaster relief fund as part of a short-term government spending bill to fund the government through Dec. 20, according to the AP. The bill reportedly “gave FEMA flexibility to draw on the money more quickly as needed.”

Mayorkas claimed Wednesday that FEMA has been able to meet the immediate needs of Americans in communities devastated by the hurricane, however according to multiple reports, the federal government has offered little to no help.

According to independent journalist Breanna Morello, the Biden-Harris regime and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D) are refusing to deploy search and rescue teams to help Americans trapped after Hurricane Helene.

These teams have been in the area since Sunday, but have not been granted authorization to rescue anyone.

“They’re waiting to get authorization through Title 10,” Morello reported on X Wednesday.

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-4&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1841553395464761836&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Famerica-last-after-spending-640-million-migrants-and-billions-abroad-fema-suddenly-broke&sessionId=8a8013a208db18f0ac94cd69aadf976f58843cda&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

Title 10 of the United States Code covers roles, missions, and organization of the United States Armed Forces, and establishes the legal basis for the Department of Defense.

“For some reason that’s not coming down,” she said.

If you want to dig deeper into this egregious misuse of American taxpayer funds, click into the thread below:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-5&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1840862879261810790&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Famerica-last-after-spending-640-million-migrants-and-billions-abroad-fema-suddenly-broke&sessionId=8a8013a208db18f0ac94cd69aadf976f58843cda&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

Meanwhile, the propaganda wing of the Democrat party is doing it’s thing…

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-6&features=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%3D%3D&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1841817051981087082&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fpolitical%2Famerica-last-after-spending-640-million-migrants-and-billions-abroad-fema-suddenly-broke&sessionId=8a8013a208db18f0ac94cd69aadf976f58843cda&siteScreenName=zerohedge&theme=light&widgetsVersion=2615f7e52b7e0%3A1702314776716&width=550px

KING REPORT

The King Report October 3, 2024 Issue 7340

Independent View of the News

ADP Employment Change for Sept: 143k, 125k expected, 103k prior.  500+ employees +86k, 250-499 +15k, 50-249 +49k, 20-49 +5k, 1-19 -13k Leisure & Hospitality +34k, Construction +26k, Education & Health Services +24k, Information -10k https://adpemploymentreport.com/   Tesla tumbled 6.3% by 9:58 ET because Q3 deliveries are 462,890; 463,897 was expected.   USZs traded modestly positive from the Nikkie opening until they broke down after the 3 ET European opening.  After hitting 124 18/32 at 5:15 ET, USZs traded in a tight 5-handle range until they cascaded after the stronger than expected ADP Employment Change for September.   USZs hit a daily low of 123 20/32 (-1 12/32) at 9:37 ET.  We and a few others noted a few weeks ago that traders were record long US debt futures for the Fed’s rate-cut cycle.  Since the jumbo Fed rate cut, Mr. Bond has had the blues.  The stronger than expected ADP Employment Change elicited fear that the September NFP due on Friday would be stronger than expected.  This would make Powell and his ilk look foolish and very political for cutting rates 50bps weeks before an election when there was NO systemic problem, GDP was 3% or better, and employment growth was adequate.   It would torpedo Street experts’ forecasts of two more jumbo rate cuts in 2024.  And it would again make Fed economic forecasters look ridiculous.   ESZs traded modestly negative but in a large 28-handle range from the Nikki opening until they broke lower after the 9:30 ET NYSE opening.  ESZs hit a daily low of 5724.00 at 9:45 ET.  Then, new Japan PM Ishida saved stocks and truncated bond market losses.   Yen Plunges as New Prime Minister, BOJ Dim Rate-Hike Hopes    Ishiba says economy isn’t ready for another rate increase    Yen faces ‘double whammy’ from renewed Fed, BOJ Divergence The yen plunged after Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, jolted currency markets by saying the economy isn’t ready for another interest-rate hike from the central bank… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yen-set-worst-day-since-163714712.html   ESZs jumped to 5746.50 at 9:49 ET, +24.50 in only 4 minutes.  After a retreat to 5742.00 at 10:00 ET, another surge took ESZs to 5756.25 at 10:03 ET, +14.25 in only 3 minutes.  ESZs hit the daily high of 5772.25 at 11:44 ET.  ESZs then formed a large ‘W’ pattern over the remainder of the day.   Fed’s Barkin says price pressures may not fade as fast as expected He said he was concerned inflation could prove sticky next year and prevent the Fed from cutting rates as far as investors and some of his colleagues expect…”I’m more concerned about inflation than I am about the labor market,”…    He noted that the port strike that began on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast this week, and the wage increases of 50% or more being discussed as possibly needed to settle it, did not seem like evidence of collapsing inflation or a weak economy. “That feels like wage pressure,” Barkin said, and a reason to view current rate cuts as a needed “recalibration” of policy that may or may not give way to a full-scale “normalization.”… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-barkin-says-price-pressures-191414687.html     @jessefelder: ‘In 2009, the market cap of the US stock market was 30% of the global stock market cap. Today it is almost 50%.’ (Need more rate cuts!) https://x.com/jessefelder/status/1841478748060652012   @jasongoepfert: Utilities XLU are trading 20% above their 200-day moving average. That only happened once before, in October 2000. It lasted one day. https://t.co/5LHRTybRqU   @charliebilello: The S&P 500’s Dividend Yield has moved down to 1.27%, tied with Q4 2021 for the lowest yield since 2000.  https://t.co/rQuXrxVpWs   @Marlin_Capital: SPX P/E Ratios at the beginning of Fed easing cycles: 2024 has the highest P/E at the start of a Fed cutting cycle in 60+ years.  https://t.co/9CDxbAhxUt   @RealEJAntoni: Federal debt explodes on 1st day of the new fiscal year, jumping $204 billion to new record of $35.669 trillion, but it gets worse: Treasury also had to draw down its cash balance by $72 billion – that’s over $275 billion in the red FOR JUST ONE DAY: https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/1841581212433055964   Positive aspects of previous session Ishida saved stocks; Fangs led the US rally.   Negative aspects of previous session Even after an Ishida-induced rally, USZs were -25/32 at the NYSE close. The DJTA declined sharply. Energy and industrial commodities rallied sharply.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session What are the ramifications of Japan already halting its rate cuts?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5701.06 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5719.63; 5674.00   The East and Gulf coast ports strike could be a no-win situation for the Biden administration President Joe Biden has said he will not intervene to force striking ILA union workers back on the job at East and Gulf coast ports, a political calculation that balances the power of unions ahead of a tight election with concerns about the economy, the No. 1 issue for many voters… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/02/why-ports-strike-could-be-no-win-situation-biden-administration.html   Apparently, Biden and/or his Obamaite handlers want Iran to have nuclear weapons.   Biden says he would not back Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear sites Any Israeli response to Iran’s missile barrage should be ‘proportional’, says the US president. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/2/biden-says-he-would-not-back-israeli-strike-on-irans-nuclear-sites      @BillAckman, So @POTUS Biden prefers Iran to maintain and enhance its nuclear capability? Mr. President or @KamalaHarris, please explain.   @EricLDaugh: VIRGINIA Republicans are holding close to a 3-to-1 lead over Democrats among the lowest propensity voters, despite mail also now coming in. Bad, bad news, if this is replicated elsewhere. (Low, let alone lowest, propensity voters are seldom polled.  DJT’s hidden vote could be large.) Today – Ishida rescued stocks on Wednesday.  It is crystal clear that China, Japan, and the USA are in “Inflate or Die” mode.  Traders are likely to be bullish on stocks until they get cautious in the late afternoon for the September Employment Report.  A strong NFP, which Team Obama Harris needs, could generate spirited selling of US financial assets.  If this transpires, will someone rescue ESZs?   ESZs are -1.50; NQZs are -9.50; and USZs are -2/32 at 20:20 ET.   Expected economic data and events: Initial Jobless Claims 221k, Continuing Claims 1.83m; Sept S&P Global US Services PMI 55.4, Composite 54.3: Sept ISM Services PMI 51.7, Prices Paid 56.3; Aug Factory Orders 0.1% m/m; Aug Durable Goods 0.0% m/m, Ex-Trans 0.5%, Nondef Ex-Air; KC Fed Pres Schmid 10:00 ET, Minn Fed Pres Kashkari 10:40 ET   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5541; 100-day MA: 5483; 150-day MA: 5368; 200-day MA: 5244 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,870; 100-day MA: 40,119; 150-day MA: 39,659; 200-day MA: 39,260 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5709.54 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5356.01 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5616.84 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5764.75 triggers a sell signal   CBS Debate moderators Norah O’Donnell (who will soon leave CBS Evening News due to poor ratings) and Margaret Brennan were more biased than ABC debate moderators.   Fox’s Brit Hume: “The moderators were obnoxious — and made it feel like 3-on-1 on Vance — and Vance was just fine.” https://t.co/I8QhiVWohK   @paulsperry_: Records reveal CBS News host and last night’s VP debate moderator Margaret Brennan’s husband worked as a foreign policy adviser to Sen. Joe Biden in 2000 and 2001…worked as a “strategic advisor” for the anti-Trump Lincoln Project in 2020. Yado Yakub also donated to its PAC.   Fox’s @BillMelugin_: CBS cuts Vance’s mic while he’s explaining how the Biden/Harris admin has allowed over 800,000 migrants to enter the U.S. via the CBP One App “lawfully”. It then sounded like Walz claimed the CBP One app has been used since the 90s, which is completely false. The Biden/Harris admin started using it in winter 2023 to begin mass paroling migrants into the country by the hundreds of thousands, typically between 1,300-1,500 every single day.   Moderators cut JD Vance’s mic during heated exchange over border crisis https://t.co/oCWhC6Fe5v   Donald Trump unleashes at ‘biased’ CBS ‘young lady’ moderators for ‘fact-checking’ J.D. Vance and hurls brutal insults at ‘Tampon’ Tim Walz https://t.co/DVqpEeb8UK   @Robber_Baron_: This really happened. Moderator:  How does immigration impact housing and rental prices?  VANCE:  More people competing for the same number of houses makes homes cost more. MODERATOR:  But what does that have to do with immigration?  VANCE:  Immigrants are people. https://x.com/Robber_Baron_/status/1841507024493846618?t=-KaNufOgaAjTQVzbXKKu5w&s=03   @JDVance: As promised earlier tonight, here is Michelle Bowman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: “Given the current low inventory of affordable housing, the inflow of new immigrants to some geographic areas could result in upward pressure on rents…” https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bowman20240503a.htm   GOP Sen. @marcorubio: Once again another major media outlet embarrasses themselves on a debate stage. In just the first 30 minutes of the CBS debate the moderators have already offered two gratuitous editorial statements… taking a shot at JD Vance under the guise of “fact checking”.   There was supposed to be no fact checking.  After the second fact check on Vance in the first few questions, JD unleashed on the moderators.   @TrumpWarRoom: NBC’s Kristen Welker says she “was getting texts from Democrats PANICKED” last night over @JDVance ‘s beatdown of Tampon Tim Walz on the debate stage. https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1841478553067495628   @CollinRugg: Media reactions after the JD Vance vs. Tim Walz debate. Geraldo Rivera: JD Vance won the debate. NBC: Does Tim Walz have a problem with the truth? Chris Cuomo: JD Vance fact-checked the moderators and he was right. CNN’s John King: Vance carried the important issues. CNN’s Jake Tapper: JD Vance is a better debater. MSNBC: *Live meltdown*    https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1841328169384575055   Vance Delivers a Master Class in How to Deal with Biased Moderators Their questions were mostly cherry-picked to be of more interest to a left-leaning audience, and they clearly steered the discussion toward topics that benefit Democrats…     Climate change is a bottom-tier issue in poll after poll for the American people, but it’s superimportant to a narrow band of highly engaged liberals. So, we get a climate question in every single debate, while somehow issues like the threat of Communist China seemingly never come up…      Vance did a remarkable job of staying on message, answering questions seriously—but on his terms—and delivering clear, logical answers to every question… Given this challenging environment, Vance did a remarkable job of staying on message, answering questions seriously—but on his terms—and delivering clear, logical answers to every question.    And when the two moderators became obnoxious about interjecting and live fact-checking (even though CBS News said they wouldn’t), Vance didn’t just let it go… “Margaret, the rules were that you guys weren’t going to fact-check, and since you are fact-checking me I think it’s important to say what’s actually going on,” Vance said… https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/10/02/vance-delivers-a-masterclass-in-how-to-deal-with-biased-moderators/   @QuantusInsights: Debate Winner | Polymarket: Vance 66% (+22), Walz 34% https://t.co/5pUgoBUeoX   Post-Debate: Vance Vanquishes ‘Knucklehead’ Walz & Muting Moderators Vance’s dominant debate performance earned him rare praise from some liberal media outlets… here are highlights:  https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/post-debate-vance-vanquishes-knucklehead-walz-muting-moderators   There were no questions on Ukraine, Biden’s health, crime, Walz’s handling of the Floyd riots, or the assassination attempts on Trump.  The only question on Hurricane Helene was about climate change.   @TrumpWarRoom: ABC’s Linsey Davis says Walz’s debate performance was reminiscent of Biden’s humiliating performance in June.  https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1841327937640964299   @AnnCoulter: Burning questions from the lady moderators: Climate change, abortion, school shootings… Next issue: Astrology and Veganism.   Brennan: “Governor Walz, you said you were in Hong Kong during the deadly Tiananmen Square protests in the spring of 1989, but Minnesota Public Radio and other media outlets are reporting that you actually didn’t travel to Asia until August of that year. Can you explain that discrepancy?”   Walz forced to correct record on whether he was in China for the Tiananmen Square protests CBS News moderator Margaret Brennan asked Walz to explain the discrepancy.  “Look, I grew up in a small rural Nebraska town, a town that you rode your bike with your buddies till the streetlights come on, and I’m proud of that service,” a visibly shaky Walz said. “I joined the National Guard at 17, worked on family farms and then I used the GI bill to become a teacher.”…   “And I’m a knucklehead at times.”… https://t.co/MsasQHWTX9   Walz says he’s become ‘friends with school shooters’ in VP debate gaffe https://t.co/3RSXTJ2JHr   Walz Stumbles During First Question of VP Debate, Confuses Israel And Iran  https://t.co/cbdOedHWQC   Tim Walz roasted for ‘uncomfortable’ appearance during VP debate: ‘Hard to watch’ https://t.co/iuPftM6Emh   @SteveGuest: Who is the staffer who is going to have to brief Tim Walz that “Dancing with the Stars” is an ABC show and not a CBS show?  Another gaffe…   @JDVance to Walz: “You’ve got a tough job here. You’ve got to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver rising take home pay, which of course he did. You’ve got to pretend that Donald Trump didn’t deliver lower inflation, which of course he did. And then you’ve got to defend Kamala Harris’s atrocious economic record, which has made gas, groceries, and housing unaffordable for American citizens.”   https://x.com/JDVance/status/1841294520924721384   @TrumpWarRoom: JD Vance: “Something these guys do is they make a lot of claims about if Donald Trump becomes president, all of these terrible consequences will ensue. But in reality, Donald Trump was president. Inflation was low, take home pay was higher.” https://t.co/9037puhzW8   Vance reminds Walz that Kamala Harris wants to ‘turn every city in this country into Springfield’ https://trib.al/OxZ5DQN   JD Vance reveals woman ‘very dear’ to him had abortion in passionate VP debate response https://t.co/7DqYbrSvs0   Vance’s primary task was to attract women, be the anti-Trump.  So, JD was civil and gracious to Walz.  He never attacked or ridiculed Walz.  He slammed Harris, and the moderators once.  Walz was supposed to attract men to Harris.  So, Tim talked about hunting, owning guns, being a football coach, etc.   MSNBC guest says JD Vance ‘not the kind of despicable character we have seen’ in clips https://t.co/ABvRmQGShM   Internet fascinated by JD Vance’s ‘pretty eyes’ during VP debate against Tim Walz https://t.co/vAOatda8qj   @BillAckman: JD Vance is whip smart, measured, unflappable and fair and respectful to @Walz. What’s not to like?  I find myself feeling sorry for Walz. He seems like a nice guy, but in way over his head to be second in line to run the country. A bit of a buffoon, but in a good way. A kind man that will get his face ripped off in a negotiation. Not someone that I want making consequential decisions for all Americans.   Walz’s recurring wide eye expression was noted and ridiculed on social media.  Politico spings it this way: Walz’s wide eyes showed his passion… https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2024/10/02/walz-vance-vp-debate-body-language-analysis-00182127   CBS: Harris to lead administration’s efforts to stem migration at border  March, 24, 2021 President Biden announced Wednesday he had tapped Vice President Kamala Harris to lead the administration’s efforts to stem migration at the southern border… https://www.cbsnews.com/news/kamala-harris-immigration-lead-mexico-border-biden-administration/   @CBSNews: During the vice presidential debate, Senator JD Vance claimed Vice President Harris “became the appointed border czar.” CBS News Confirmed rates this as false. Here’s why. https://cbsn.ws/3Y5GciV   @theright_answer: CBS News is in this video calling Kamala Harris the Border Czar. https://x.com/theright_answer/status/1841349812324626673   Kamala Harris’s husband Doug Emhoff ‘forcefully slapped ex-girlfriend for flirting with another man’ in booze-fueled assault after date to star-studded gala… after a May 2012 Cannes Film Festival event in France… (Team Obama-Harris & its media stooges are promoting Doug as the new model of male masculinity for US men!) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13898791/Kamala-Harris-husband-Doug-Emhoff-accused-ex-girlfriend-slap.html   @CollinRugg: Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff accused of physically assaulting his ex-girlfriend, days after MSNBC host Jen Psaki said Emhoff was “reshaping masculinity.”… The three friends also claim Emhoff admitted to his ex-girlfriend that he impregnated his children’s nanny and “caused her to have a miscarriage.”…   https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1841473029253083230   Harris’ words on domestic abuse, sex assault come back to haunt her as critics pounce on report hubby Doug Emhoff slapped ex-girlfriend: ‘Believe survivors’ https://trib.al/pCTOxBd   Doug Emhoff Told Former Girlfriend He’d Paid $80,000 Hush Money to Nanny He Impregnated https://redstate.com/jenvanlaar/2024/10/02/emhoff-allegedly-told-former-girlfriend-hed-paid-80000-in-hush-money-to-nanny-he-impregnated-n2180053   @WesternLensman: Tim Walz is still trying to get his cover story straight on his “Tiananmen Square” lie.  He now says: “I had my dates wrong.”… https://t.co/rBuT3Pl3sf   @TrumpWarRoom: REPORTER: Can you clarify why you said you’ve befriended school shooters? WALZ: “I’m super passionate about this!” (No clarification was offered) https://t.co/NsJ837YCOg   @paulsperry_: More apocrypha from “Knucklehead” Tim Walz: “Look, I got a 17-year-old, and he witnessed a shooting at a community center playing volleyball. Those things don’t leave you.” In fact, police records show the shooting occurred OUTSIDE the rec center and his son never “witnessed” it.   @GrageDustin: Tim Walz made a claim that his son witnessed a shooting while playing volleyball inside Jimmy Lee Rec Center in St. Paul, Minnesota. The problem? There are no windows that could’ve viewed the shooting took place outside. Here is a snapshot… https://t.co/rMsPc3SFvT   @MLiamMcCollum: Tim Walz says, “you can’t yell ‘fire’ in a crowded theater.” The phrase comes from one of the worst decisions in US history, Schenck vs. US, which held that the distribution of anti-war material could be considered a criminal offense. It was overturned. https://t.co/6goVzhQDaY   Harris dodges answering whether athletes should stand during national anthem in unearthed interview https://t.co/mmzYxHq13t   Harris told Hurricane Helene victims that all they can expect is $750 because FEMA is out of funds.  Ukraine got billions; and FEMA has spent almost $1B to settle illegal immigrants the past 2 years.   @StephenM: Illegals get free housing, free transportation, free food and free medical care — all paid for by Americans.   @Oilfield_Rando: Biden has been using FEMA funds to house illegal immigrants all over the country his entire Presidency. It’s called the Shelter & Services program.  $941 million in 2023 and 2024 alone. https://x.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1841112876678848650   @AdImpact_Pol: AdImpact estimates that last night’s Vice Presidential Debate had a total viewership of 67.3M with peak viewership reaching 52.2M. (Usually the VP Debate has little interest and no impact.)   Judge unseals key filing in special counsel’s election case against Trump (Election interference) Jack Smith’s 165-page filing lays out alleged evidence he intends to use in an eventual trial against Trump   https://www.foxnews.com/politics/judge-unseals-key-filing-special-counsels-election-case-against-trump   @themarketswork: The DOJ just delayed releasing damning documents on Biden until the day AFTER the election. Special Counsel Jack Smith is simultaneously releasing an unprecedented 165-page redacted motion (Dossier) in a Trump case that is effectively dead. Election Interference https://x.com/themarketswork/status/1841585468091335058   @JonathanTurley: Smith was clearly eager to get this out before the public despite Justice Department policies that encourage prosecutors to avoid acts that would be viewed as trying to influence an election… He is trying to thread the needle in this filing to get around the Supreme Court immunity decision.  Notably, Smith removed evidence from the new indictment but kept the same claims…     Smith knows that he has a motivated and supportive judge and wants to simply prove the same basic claims on less evidence.   @TrumpDailyPosts: The release of this falsehood-ridden, Unconstitutional, J6 brief immediately following Tim Walz’s disastrous Debate performance, and 33 days before the Most Important Election in the History of our Country, is another obvious attempt by the Harris-Biden regime to undermine and Weaponize American Democracy and INTERFERE IN THE 2024 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION. Deranged Jack Smith, the handpicked Prosecutor of the Harris-Biden DOJ, and Washington, D.C. based Radical Left Democrats, are HELL BENT on continuing to Weaponize the Justice Department in an attempt to cling to power. “TRUMP” is dominating the Election cycle, leading in the Polls, and the Radical Democrats throughout the Deep State are totally “freaking out.” This entire case is a Partisan, Unconstitutional, Witch Hunt, that should be dismissed, entirely, just like the Florida case was dismissed!   @MarkNeuman18: I recently read an amazing book called “Armageddon” by Leon Uris.  It is set in post WWII Germany, and it consists of events between US, Russian soldiers and ex-German soldiers and the rebuild of Berlin and the surrounding areas.     In one of the more revealing discussions, the book talks about the N*zis. It goes on to say they thrived on mediocrity. They were able to champion thousands of mediocre folks by giving them jobs well above their intellect or capabilities in exchange for devout, unwavering allegiance to the Party. This was how they got them to stop thinking and do as told in order to preserve their livelihood and “stature” in society. It allowed them to, “Just follow orders,” without any moral or ethical clarity.     I think about this idea every day now with the trove of incoherent logic, reasoning, and lack of intelligence and critical thinking I see across the board of information dissemination.

GREG HUNTER

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