GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $11.20 TO $2648.20
SILVER PRICE UP $0.00 TO $32.16
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2656.90
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.05
Bitcoin morning price:$61,455 UP 407 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $62504 up 1233 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $4.80 TO $992.40
Palladium price; UP $6.10 TO $1008.50
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3597.23 DOWN 2.70 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,600.83CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 3 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2018.80 DOWN 4.80 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2024.20 RITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 3/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,414.44 UP 7.80 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.414.44 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 4 //.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE: COMEX
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,657.100000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/03/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 10/07/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 29
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 88
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 71
661 C JP MORGAN 10
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 4 1
690 C ABN AMRO 8
709 C BARCLAYS 83
737 C ADVANTAGE 142 3
905 C ADM 38
TOTAL: 239 239
JPMorgan stopped 0/239
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 239 NOTICES FOR 23900 OZ or 0.7433 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,079 contracts for 1,107,900 Oz (34,460 tonnes)
FOR OCT
SILVER NOTICES: 87 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.435 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1242 for 6.2100 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.51 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 0 CENTS AT THE SLV
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 465.777 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 1357 CONTRACTS TO 147,462 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN OF $0.69 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 1552 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. //. WE HAD ZERO STRONG SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE.. WE HAD A SMALL 195 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 488 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 1552 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN YESTERDAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: 488 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.69 AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAVE A GIGANTIC GAIN OF 1552 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL 195 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 475,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 6.300 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 6.3000 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 488 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED XXX CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 DAYS, total 3421 contracts: OR 17.106 MILLION OZ (855 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 17.106 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 17.106 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1357 CONTRACTS WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS:195 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 5.355 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE QUEUE JUMP OF 475,000 OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 6.3000 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 1552 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 488 CONTRACTS (USED FOR TODAY’S RAID),//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX
/ ZERO ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE THURSDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (488 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE//
WE HAD 87 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 435,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED1215 OI CONTRACTS TO 528,612 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED XX CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1215 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $8.95 IN PRICE /THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 40,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 35.169TONNES+ 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 55.343 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $8.95 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF 396 OI CONTRACTS (1.23 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED LATE THURSDAY WITH THEIR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE!
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 1611 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 528,612
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 396 CONTRACTS WITH 1,215 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 1611 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 396 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1611 CONTRACTS, WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (1611 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1,215 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 396 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 40,,700 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 35.169 TONNES. + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 55.343 TONNES
/ 3) ZERO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1327 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 17,621 CONTRACTS OF 1,762,100 OZ OR 54.80 TONNES IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4405 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 54.80 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 54.80 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.57% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 54.80 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1357 CONTRACTS OI TO 147,462 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 195 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 195 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 195 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1357 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 195 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1552 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 7.760 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.69 GAIN IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 83.56 PTS OR 0.22%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.68%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0653 Oil DOWN TO 74.88dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.59 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1,215 CONTRACTS TO 528,612 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.95 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS DESPITE THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (1611). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS ON TUESDAY WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! TODAY WE REVERTED BACK TO ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH DISTORTS OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY LAST WEEK AND ESPECIALLY THIS WEEK AS A MAJOR BUYER OF PHYSICAL IS OFF DUE TO GOLDEN WEEK.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 22 -24 2024/. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE.THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS ALSO BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE LOWER PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH THURSDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE BUT WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE SOME SHORT COVERING AT LOWER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST ESPECIALLY YESTERDAY’S LOSS IN OI.
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 1611 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 1611 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1611 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 396 CONTRACTS IN THAT 1611 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 1215 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $8.95 THURSDAY COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, A FAIR SIZED 1327 CONTRACTS, WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (55.343 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 35.169 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =55.343 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $8.95/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES.,WE HAD A CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY PRIOR TO TODAY’S NON FARM PAYROLL REPORT. BUT CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING FOR A FRIDAY DELIVERY.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 1.2317 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 40,700 OZ QUE JUMP………………..
//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 35.169TONNES.+ 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
NEW STANDING FOR OCT 35.169 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 55.343 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $8.95
WE HAVE REMOVED XXXX CONTRACTS FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 396 CONTRACTS OR 39600 OZ (1.2317 TONNES)
confirmed volume THURSDAY 145,251 contracts poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
OCT 4 OCT GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 64334.151 OZ Manfra; 2000 kilobars brinks 1 kilobar . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | nil oz |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 239notice(s) 23900 OZ 0.7433 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 228contracts 22800 OZ 0.7091 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 11,079 notices 1107,900oz 34.460TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits:0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits 0 oz
withdrawals: 2
i) out of Malca: 64,302.00 oz or 2,000 kilobars
ii) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz (1 kilobar)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 64,334.151 oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 467 contracts having GAINED A HUGE 378 contracts.
We had 29 contracts filed yesterday so we GAINED 407 contracts on our two exchanges or 407 CONTRACTS underwent a huge 40,700 oz queue jump.
NOVEMBER LOST 3 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1308
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 1718 CONTRACTS TO 451,496
We had 239 contracts filed for today representing 23900 oz
This is a major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 10 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 239 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,079x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(467 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (239 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,130700 OZ OR 35.169 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, NEW TOTAL = 55.343 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,079 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT (467 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (239 x 100 oz which equals 1,130,700 oz (35.169 TONNES + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY = 55.343 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 55.343 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,616,417.194 oz 50.277tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,048,313.722 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,828,206.279/// 243,49tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,220,107.447 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,211,789 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 193.212 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 4 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE OCT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 90,915.70 oz Brinks . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,185,621.840 oz Loomis |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 87 CONTRACT(S) (0.435 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 18 contracts (90,000oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 1242Contracts (6.2100 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposits:
i) INTO Loomis: 1,185,621.840 oz
total customer deposits 1,185,621.804 oz
We had 1 withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks 90,915.70
total withdrawal 90,915.70 OZ
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/306.593million or 44.11%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.864MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.593million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 105 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 81 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 14 CONTRACTS SERVED YESTERDAY SO WE GAINED 95 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A HUGE 475,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 200 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 682
DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 460 CONTRACTS UP TO 126,684 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 87 for 0.435 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 60,752 GOOD
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1242 x 5,000 oz = 6.2100 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (105 and the number of notices served upon today 87x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month: 1242 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(105) number of notices served upon today minus (87)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 6.300 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 6.3000 million oz.
There are 70.864 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 877.41 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ
OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 465.777MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
Schiff: The Phony Economy Must Die
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 03:20 PM
Peter recently joined Francis Hunt on his Youtube channel, The Market Sniper, for an interview. Throughout the course of their conversation, they cover the future of gold, destructive campaign promises made by Kamala Harris, soaring deficit figures, and why the public is mistaken about gold ETFs.
Francis begins by asking Peter about the similarities between today’s economy and the economy in 2006 and 2007. Many of the Great Recession era problems linger, but we have even more debt:
“The problem is that after we got the financial crisis, the government didn’t learn from its mistakes at all. The Federal Reserve didn’t acknowledge any role in creating the crisis and it simply did more of what caused it. And so now, a dozen years later or more, the economy is in much worse shape. We have far more debt now than we had in 2008. We have a much bigger bubble that encompasses a lot more than just residential housing. And we’re on the precipice of a much greater economic crisis from which there could be no bailouts because the way they were able to bail everybody out before was to create inflation.”
Meanwhile, gold is having a killer year– its best in over 40 years. With the Fed already cutting rates, the stage is set for the metal to have its best year ever:
“Gold is on pace to have its best year percentage-wise since 1979. And it’s already its best year dollar-wise. Gold is up over $600 an ounce so far this year. But percentage-wise, it’s the biggest since 1979. But 1979 was significant in that that was the end of the gold bull market, because 1980 was the top and gold turn, because Volcker raised interest rates up to 20%. But Powell and his cronies are about to cut rates, or they already have cut rates, and they’re going to cut them more in 2025.”
The presidential candidates have only one answer to complaints about the economy, and it’s to create even larger deficits:
“She [Kamala Harris] wants to give everybody $25,000 to go out and buy a house, $50,000 to start a business, $7,000 to have a child. Where’s this money going to come from? It’s going to be bigger deficits that the Fed is going to have to monetize. Everybody’s talking about tax cuts. Even though we have massive deficits, people want to make the deficits bigger.”
At this rate, debt maintenance is primed to surpass tax revenue:
“We could easily add $25 trillion to the national debt. I mean, it’s already $36 trillion. I mean, it’s growing exponentially. Interest on the national debt is larger than defense. It’s over a trillion a year. In a couple of years, interest on the national debt will be bigger than either Social Security or Medicare. And both of those expenses are growing. But probably by the end of whoever wins this presidential election, I think that interest on the debt will consume 100% of tax revenue.”
The economy must detox from decades of artificial and cheap credit, wasteful government spending, and insufficient saving. This will be a painful process, but it beats the alternative:
“And so the only way to get back to a real economy is to allow the phony economy to die. But that means a lot of people lose a lot of money. But the alternative is they lose even more because then nobody loses their money, but the money loses its value. So we don’t default on the bonds. We don’t default on Social Security. Everybody gets their Social Security checks. They just can’t buy anything when they take the money to the store.”
Peter and Francis wrap up by discussing Bitcoin’s recent performance. They agree that retail investment is a contrary indicator. Money has been flowing from gold ETFs into Bitcoin ETFs, when the reverse would be more profitable:
“While the public has been wasting their money buying Bitcoin ETFs, they’ve been pulling their money out of gold ETFs. Gold ETFs have had net outflows this year. Gold stock ETFs have also had net outflows, despite the fact that this is the best year for gold in 45 years. So, the public has been selling gold the whole time it’s been going up, and they’ve been buying an asset that’s gone nowhere.”
Check out Peter’s other recent interviews on Schwab Network, Rocks and Stocks, and Wall Street for Main Street.
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
Fed’s paper losses exceed $200 billion
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-10-03 20:21 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Michael S. Derby
Reuters
via Yahoo News, Sunnyvale, California
Thursday, October 3, 2024
NEW YORK — U.S. Federal Reserve losses crossed the $200 billion point this week, according to data released today by the central bank.
The Fed reported that as of Wednesday, the level of its so-called earnings remittance to the Treasury Department stood at negative $201.2 billion. The number represents a paper loss that central bank officials have noted does not impair their ability to conduct monetary policy.
The negative number is captured in an accounting measure the Fed calls a deferred asset. The Fed must cover this shortfall before it can begin returning excess earnings to the Treasury.
Fed losses flow from the high-interest rate monetary policy path it had been pursuing to bring down inflation. …
… For the remainder of the report:
END
Joshua D. Glawson: The untold history of gold rushes in the United States
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-10-03 08:36 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Joshua D. Glawson
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Wednesday, October 2, 2024
The discovery of gold in the United States profoundly shaped the nation’s economic and social development, especially during the 19th century.
These gold rushes transformed regional economies, spurred massive population movements, led to the establishment of new towns, and influenced U.S. territorial expansion.
While the California Gold Rush is the most famous, other significant gold discoveries across the country played an equally vital role in the nation’s history. This article explores the key gold rushes and the famous figures that emerged from them. …
… For the remainder of the report:
Hungary’s central bank boosts gold reserves to a record high 110 tons
Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-10-02 11:21 Section: Daily Dispatches
Hungary now claims the highest per-capita official gold reserves in central and eastern Europe.
* * *
From the Hungarian National Bank, Budapest
Monday, September 30, 2024
Taking Hungary’s long-term national and economic strategic goals into account, the Hungarian National Bank decided to increase the gold reserve from 94.5 tons to 110 tons.
The increase in the gold reserve was supported by the further strengthening of the global economic, geopolitical, and capital market processes that led to the appreciation of the role of gold in recent years.
mid the increasing uncertainty character of the world economy as a whole, the function of gold as a safe haven and value preserver is of particular importance, because it strengthens trust in the country and supports financial stability. Gold remains one of the most important global reserve assets, which is supported by the significant central bank gold purchases of recent years. By increasing gold reserves, Hungary has the highest gold reserves per capita in the central and eastern European region.
In 2024, the centenary year of the foundation of the Hungarian central bank — Magyar Nemzeti Bank — the bank decided to increase the gold reserve from 94.5 tons to 110 tons, taking into account Hungary’s long-term national and economic strategic goals.
In recent years, the global economic, geopolitical and capital market processes that have contributed to the appreciation of the role of gold have continued to strengthen. Gold has served many functions in various financial systems throughout history.
Gold effectively complements foreign exchange reserves even under normal market conditions. When financial and geopolitical uncertainty increases, in an extreme market environment, the function of gold as a safe haven and value preserver is of particular importance, it can strengthen trust in the country and support financial stability.
Thanks to all these beneficial properties, gold remains one of the most important reserve assets worldwide.
Central bank demand for gold also supported this in recent years. Central bank purchases also increased in 2021-2022, reaching a historical peak in 2022 (1,082 tons), and then in 2023, slightly below the historical peak, but also 1,000 tons.
The MNB has held gold reserves since its foundation in 1924, but its holdings have fluctuated greatly. The stock of the gold reserve increased until the Second World War, and at the end of the war, the central bank evacuated gold bars and gold coins weighing around 30 tons to Spital am Pyhrn in Austria on the MNB’s legendary “Gold Train.”
After the war, the gold reserve was returned to the country and, as collateral, it supported the stabilization of the Hungarian economy and financial consolidation when the forint was introduced. During the regime change, Hungary’s gold reserves were reduced in several steps to a minimal level of around 3.1 tons.
With long-term national and economic strategic goals in mind, the MNB increased the gold reserve more than tenfold to 31.5 tons in 2018, and then tripled it to 94.5 tons in 2021.
By increasing the gold reserve to 110 tons, the MNB continued the gold purchase process started in 2018 in order to achieve long-term national strategic goals. The Hungarian gold reserve thus rose to a record level.
In the field of regional central banks, by increasing gold reserves, Hungary’s gold reserves per capita will rise from 0.32 ounces to 0.37 ounces, so that our country currently has the highest gold reserves per capita in the central and eastern European region.
* * *
END
Gold overtakes euro to become second-largest central bank reserve asset
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-10-01 11:08 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, October 1, 2024
According to Bank of America, gold has overtaken the euro to become the world’s second-largest central bank reserve asset.
With the central bank gold buying spree over the last several years, along with the rapid rise in price in 2024, the yellow metal now makes up about 16% of total reserve assets, just ahead of the euro.
The dollar’s share of reserves has dropped to 58 percent.
There appears to be a movement to replace fiat currencies, including the dollar, with gold, especially in emerging market countries in the East.
Central banks globally added a net 483 tons of gold through the first six months of this year, 5% above the record of 460 tons in H1 2023, and aggressive buying has continued in Q3.
Last year central bank gold buying of 1,037 tons fell just 45 tons short of 2022’s multi-decade record. …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/KINESIS 193 WITH ANDREW MAGUIRE
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED
//Hang Seng CLOSED
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 83.56 PTS OR 0.22%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.68%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0653 Oil DOWN TO 74.88dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 78.59 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING XXX LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING XXXX AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.0653
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED
2. Nikkei closed UP 83.56 POINTS OR 0.22%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 101.63 EURO FALLS TO 1.1032 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.885 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 146.54…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: XXX OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.1915 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.507 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 2.954
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.175
3j Gold at $2656.80 /Silver at: 32.09 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 50/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 95.25
3m oil into the 74 dollar handle for WTI and 78 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 146.54 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.885% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8513 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9392 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.872 UP 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.192 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.731 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.25…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.115 UP 9 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.148 UP 5 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.931 UP 4 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Equity Futures, Bond Yields, Oil All Rise Ahead Of Key Jobs Report
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 08:16 AM
US futures and European stocks fluctuated ahead of today’s jobs report that will help determine the path for interest rates. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 0.3% higher, reversing earlier losses, with small-caps leading. Nasdaq futures rise 0.4% with AMZN and TSLA notable movers in MegaCap Tech (AMZN +1.4%; TSLA +1.2%). Bond yields are higher, extending Thursday’s treasury selloff, 10-yr yields rise 3bps higher. The Bloomberg Dollar Index was slightly lower, but still set for the biggest weekly gain in nearly six months as traders pared back expectations for aggressive US rate cuts. Commodities are mixed with oil higher, base metals lower, and precious metals slightly higher. Oil prices extended their gains after Israel carried out huge bombing raids on Hezbollah targets near Beirut airport alongside ground attacks in southern Lebanon; this followed the biggest one-day jump in oil prices in almost a year amid spiraling Middle East tensions. Today, the key macro focus will be NFP release: Wall Street consensus expect a 150k print, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2% (see our preview here).
In premarket trading, Spirit Airlines sinks 37% as the WSJ reported that the budget carrier is preparing for a bankruptcy filing. Shipping stocks globally fell after US dockworkers agreed to end a three-day strike that had paralyzed trade on the East and Gulf coasts. In US premarket trading, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. slumped more than 7%. In Europe, A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S dropped 6.6% and Hapag-Lloyd AG fell 12%. The stocks had rallied on expectations the strike would lead to increased container rates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Align Technology (ALGN) slips 1% after CFRA downgraded the Invisalign owner to strong sell, citing industry-wide headwinds and an elevated valuation.
- Rivian (RIVN) drops 8% after the EV company cut its production guidance for the full year.
- SilverCrest Metals (SILV) gains 11% after entering a pact to be purchased by Coeur Mining.
- Summit Therapeutics (SMMT) rises 11% after the company said FDA granted fast track designation for the proposed use of its ivonescimab cancer drug in combination with platinum-based chemotherapy.
While investors keep a watchful eye over geopolitical events, they are also assessing the latest signals on the health of the US economy. Friday’s jobs report is expected to show an increase in payrolls for September, while the unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.2%.
“The slew of data that has come out from the US in the last week or two was so strong that I actually think the market could even tolerate a payrolls number that’s on the low end of the range,” said Elliot Hentov, head of macro policy research at State Street Global Advisors. “The soft landing narrative is very powerful right now and you would have to have more than one data point that’s disappointing to knock us out of that.”
According to BofA strategist Michael Hartnett, as well as Goldman Sachs, risk assets are likely to rally if the report is within the range of market expectations. The addition of between 125,000 to 175,000 jobs last month would support a soft economic landing and keep bond yields in a range, sparking a risk-on trade, Hartnett wrote in a report. A “blowout” report showing greater than 225,000 payrolls and an unemployment rate of less than 4.1% would drive the 30-year Treasury yield above 4.5%, the strategist said. Meanwhile, jobs below 75,000 alongside an unemployment rate of above 4.3% would be “recessionary.”
Traders are also bracing for extra volatility following the payrolls report. The options market is betting the S&P 500 Index will move roughly 1.15% in either direction after the data, according to Goldman Sachs. If it happens, that would be roughly in line with the past two jobs prints, and the biggest move in two weeks.
Elsewhere, oil headed for its strongest weekly increase in two years on fears that Israel may decide to strike Iranian petroleum facilities in retaliation for a missile assault on its territory. The US and its allies warned of “uncontrollable escalation” in the Middle East after Israel carried out huge bombing raids overnight near Beirut airport aimed at Hezbollah commanders and facilities.
European stocks tick higher on Friday, reversing some of the week’s losses ahead of US jobs data which could give investors better clarity about the Federal Reserve’s next move. The energy and real estate sectors lead gains while media equities are among the biggest laggers. Stoxx 600 rises 0.2% to 517.17 with 399 members up, 191 down and 10 unchanged. Here are some of the biggest movers on Friday:
- Volvo Car shares rise as much as 5.4% after a report the Swedish government will abstain in Friday’s vote regarding the EU Commission’s proposal of higher tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.
- DSV gains as much as 9.3% to trade at the highest since January 2022, after the Danish logistics firm sold €5 billion in shares without resorting to a discount in order to finance its takeover of Deutsche Bahn’s Schenker.
- Covivio shares rise as much as 4.6% after both Barclays and Citi double-upgrade the French real estate firm.
- Scor shares rise as much as 4.7% after the reinsurance company was upgraded to buy at Berenberg, which believes the recent hurricane season was not as bad as feared and expects the balance sheet to improve.
- Recordati shares jump as much as 5.9% in Milan, the most since April 2023, after the Italian pharmaceutical company signed an agreement to acquire the global rights to the rare disease drug Enjaymo from Sanofi for up to $1.1 billion.
- Redcare Pharmacy shares rise as much as 5% as analysts highlight the company’s strong prescription sales in Germany in the third quarter.
- European shipping stocks fall as dockworkers at US East and Gulf coast ports agreed to start moving cargo again while they continue collective bargaining with their employers on a new contract.
- SSE shares drop as much as 2.2% to hit their lowest level in almost two months after the energy utility was downgraded by analysts at Jefferies, which see a more balanced risk-reward profile following the strong gains in the stock this year.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks advanced as the rally in Hong Kong shares resumed, while traders assessed the impact of escalating tensions in the Middle East. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.6%, with Tencent and Alibaba among the biggest boosts. Chinese shares in Hong Kong advanced after retreating in the previous session, as investors pinned hopes on Golden Week holiday spending data that may give the market another leg up. The mainland Chinese market is shut through Monday. Shares in Japan gained after the yen weakened further. South Korean stocks also advanced, while Taiwan edged lower after the market reopened following a two-day closure due to a typhoon.
“We are looking forward to how consumers have reacted in the Golden Week holiday, and how the government follows up with more fiscal support,” said Tai Hui, chief Asia market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, in a Bloomberg TV interview. “That would be a key factor in sustaining the rally that we have seen so far.”
In FX, the yen is the best performer among the G-10 FX, rising 0.3% to around 146.47 against the greenback. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is flat ahead of the US jobs report. The pound rises 0.2%, boosted by BOE Chief Economist Pill who warned against cutting interest rates “too far or too fast.” A decent beat for UK construction PMI also helped. Both have weighed on gilts which underperform their German counterparts, with UK 10-year yields rising 5 bps to 4.07%. Treasuries are little changed across the curve.
In rates, treasuries hold small losses concentrated in short maturities as the US trading day begins, lifting yields except the 30-year toward the highest levels of the past month. Front-end and intermediate yields are higher by 1bp-2bp with long end little changed, flattening the yield curve slightly; 5-year exceeded its 50-day average level for the first time since May; 10- and 30-year yields exceeded their trendlines earlier this week. US 10-year yield at about 3.86% is 1.3bp higher on the day vs increases of 2bp-6bp for most global counterparts. US yields trail steeper increases for UK and euro-zone yields ahead of September US employment data at 8:30am New York time that may revive the case for a half-point Fed rate cut in November.
In commodities, crude oil rises for a fourth straight day and adding to the biggest one-day jump in almost a year as fears that Israel may decide to strike Iranian crude facilities keep the market on edge. WTI is up 1% at ~$74.45 a barrel, briefly exceeding $75 for the first time since Aug. 30. Spot gold is steady at $2,657/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, the economic data calendar includes only September jobs report; median estimates in Bloomberg survey are for a 150k increase in nonfarm payrolls and a 4.2% unemployment rate, unchanged from August; crowdsourced whisper number for nonfarm payrolls change is 152k. Fed speakers scheduled include New York’s Williams (9am), and Chicago’s Goolsbee (10am, 10:30am and 4pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,753.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 0.2% to 517.32
- MXAP up 0.4% to 195.65
- MXAPJ up 0.3% to 624.74
- Nikkei up 0.2% to 38,635.62
- Topix up 0.4% to 2,694.07
- Hang Seng Index up 2.8% to 22,736.87
- Shanghai Composite up 8.1% to 3,336.50
- Sensex down 0.8% to 81,806.07
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.7% to 8,150.00
- Kospi up 0.3% to 2,569.71
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.17%
- Euro little changed at $1.1022
- Brent Futures up 0.9% to $78.31/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.1% to $2,659.68
- US Dollar Index little changed at 101.92
Top Overnight News
- Dockworkers at ports along the East and Gulf Coasts agreed to suspend their strike until Jan 15 after the two sides reached a tentative agreement on compensation (wages are set to rise 62% over 6 years) and will negotiate over other outstanding issues over the coming months. ILA announced shortly after it reached a tentative agreement with USMX on wages and that all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume with immediate effect. WaPo
- Former US President Obama is to campaign for Democratic candidate and VP Harris in the run-up to the election, according to Washington Post.
- Japan’s new prime minister has instructed his cabinet ministers to come up with a comprehensive economic package, taking his first step toward the goal of ensuring the country manages to fully exit deflation. Shigeru Ishiba said Friday that the stimulus package will focus on easing the burden of rising living costs, boosting growth and strengthening relief and preparedness measures for natural disasters. WSJ
- Israel bombed a meeting of Hezbollah’s senior leadership around midnight on Thursday, a gathering that included Hashem Safieddine, the presumed successor of Hassan Nasrallah, the group’s longtime chief who was assassinated in an airstrike in Lebanon last week, according to three Israeli officials. NYT
- Israel does not possess the capabilities to take out Iran’s nuclear installations: only the US has the scale and weapons for such an operation. FT
- Euro-area inflation is now very near to the European Central Bank’s 2% target for consumer-price growth, according to Governing Council member Mario Centeno. WSJ
- Investors poured the most cash into US money-market funds last quarter since the March 2023 banking crisis, pushing the sector’s total AUM to a record $6.46 trillion. BBG
- Spirit Airlines’ stock is down 40% premarket. Its efforts to restructure its debt and avoid filing for bankruptcy have hit a snag, people familiar said. BBG
- Blackstone expects the private credit market to balloon to $30 trillion, fueled by lending for infrastructure projects and greater participation from pension funds
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region heading into the weekend and the latest US NFP report. ASX 200 fell with almost all sectors in the red and miners leading the retreat although energy bucked the trend after the oil surge. Nikkei 225 traded higher owing to recent currency weakness and after PM Ishiba instructed to compile a comprehensive economic package, although the gains were limited in the absence of any major macro drivers or key data releases. Hang Seng outperformed in a rebound from yesterday’s profit-taking with the advances spearheaded by tech strength and the energy sector was also boosted by the recent surge in oil prices.
Top Asian Markets
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said PM Ishiba instructed to compile a comprehensive economic package, while Hayashi added that they will compile a supplementary budget after the lower house election.
- Germany will reportedly vote against EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, according to sources via Reuters.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) began the session on a modestly weaker footing, but has edged off lows as the morning progressed. Trade still remains tentative in the run-up to today’s key US NFP report. European sectors are mostly firmer trade with no real theme or bias. Energy resides at the top of the chart. To the downside, very mild losses seen in Technology and Media, although the breadth of the losses are modest. US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are trading very modestly above the unchanged mark, with traders very mindful of the looming US NFP report. DoJ and SEC back class action alleging NVIDIA (NVDA) hid crypto mining revenue, according to Cointelegraph.
Top European Markets
- “EU countries approve duties (up to 35% [additional tariffs]) on unfairly subsidized Chinese electric cars, despite Germany’s last-minute opposition”, according to Politico (as expected)
- BoE’s Chief Economist Pill said ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence; need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restrictions. Further cuts in the Bank Rate remain in prospect but it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast. He remains concerned about the possibility of structural changes sustaining more lasting inflationary pressures. “does not think level of interest rates is having more than a marginal impact on UK business environment”
FX
- USD is mixed/flat vs. peers in the run-up to today’s eagerly anticipated NFP print. A strong release could see DXY make a more sustained breach of the 102 mark after venturing as high as 102.09 on Thursday.
- EUR is flat vs. the USD after being softer vs. the USD for the past five sessions on account of a dovish ECB repricing and as Powell guided markets towards a 25bps (as opposed to a 50bps) cut earlier in the week. For now, EUR/USD remains within yesterday’s 1.1008-49 range.
- GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD after what was a particularly bruising session yesterday on account of comments from BoE Governor Bailey that the Bank could begin cutting rates at a faster pace. Cable has picked itself up from a 1.3093 low yesterday to a 1.3167 peak today but this is a far cry from the 1.3270 high seen on Thursday.
- JPY is attempting to claw back some losses vs. the USD which were triggered earlier in the week by comments from Japanese PM Ishiba, downplaying the possibility of a near-term rate cut. USD/JPY ventured as high as 147.23 but has since returned to a 146 handle.
- AUD/USD is steady vs. the USD but in close proximity to yesterday’s low that was triggered by the hot ISM services print which dragged the pair lower to a 0.6829 base vs. the 0.6942 YTD peak printed earlier in the week.
Fixed Income
- USTs are flat, in contrast to European peers in what appears to be an attempt to claw back some of yesterday’s ISM services-induced losses which dragged the Dec’24 contract to a 113.28+ low vs. the 114.14+ high seen earlier in the session. All focus will be on today’s US NFP report.
- Bunds have extended the pullback seen since Tuesday which saw the Dec’24 10yr print a fresh contract high at 136.20. EZ-specifics has been light so focus will be on the US employment data. The German 10yr yield has continued its upside and has been as high as 2.174% vs. the 2.011% multi-month low printed earlier in the week.
- Gilts kicked the session off on the backfoot inline with European paper and a reversal of yesterday’s upside that was driven by dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey. Downside for the UK 10yr was added to by comments from BoE Chief Economist Pill who took a more hawkish stance than his boss.
Commodities
- Crude is holding an upward bias against the backdrop of heightened geopolitics heading into the weekend, with Israel’s response yet to come. Brent’Dec resides near its weekly best in a USD 77.39-78.42/bbl range.
- Mixed trade across precious metals ahead of the US jobs report but spot gold holds a mild upward bias on the back of the aforementioned geopolitics. Spot gold briefly topped yesterday’s high (USD 2,663/oz).
- Base metals hold a mild upward bias but largely treading water in a tentative market awaiting the US jobs report. Mainland Chinese markets remained closed overnight for Golden Week holiday.
- UAE’s ADNOC set Nov Murban crude OSP at USD 73.41/bbl (prev. USD 77.94/bbl)
Geopolitics
- Iranian Supreme leader Khamenei said will strike again if necessary. Adds “we will not delay nor rush to respond to Israel”.
- Israeli army calls on residents of 20 towns in southern Lebanon to evacuate, according to Sky News Arabia
- Hezbollah announces targeting of northern Haifa with a rocket barrage, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel’s military called for the immediate evacuation of specific buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs and multiple Israeli raids were then reported in the area, while Israel also conducted a strike on the outside perimeter of Beirut Airport. Furthermore, Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Hezbollah’s Executive Council head Hashem Safieddine was the target of Israel’s attack in Beirut and Israel’s military said it killed Zahi Yasser Abdel Razak Ofi who is the head of the Hamas network in the West Bank’s Tulkarm.
- Ukraine’s military said it hit fuel storage facility in Russia’s Voronezh region
- Ukrainian drone strikes targeted a fuel depot in the Russian town of Anna in Voronezh Oblast, while the Russian emergencies ministry later announced that a fuel depot was on fire in Russia’s Perm region.
- North Korean leader Kim warned North Korea will use nuclear weapons if South Korea and the US use force, while he said enemies’ threats will not take away North Korea’s nuclear weapons and it has irreversibly secured nuclear power, as well as the system and function for using it, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Sept. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 150,000, prior 142,000
- Change in Private Payrolls, est. 125,000, prior 118,000
- Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -8,000, prior -24,000
- 08:30: Sept. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.2%, prior 4.2%
- Underemployment Rate, prior 7.9%
- Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7%
- 08:30: Sept. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
- Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 3.8%, prior 3.8%
- Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.3, prior 34.3
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets have remained focused on the Middle East over the last 24 hours, as investors weigh up the likelihood of a fresh escalation and how Israel might respond to Iran’s missile strikes last Tuesday. That response from Israel is yet to materialise, but there was a fresh spike in oil prices after President Biden was asked whether he’d support an Israeli strike on Iran’s oil facilities, and he said “we’re discussing that”. That immediately led to a market reaction, and Brent crude (+5.03%) saw its largest daily increase since last October to $77.62/bbl. Indeed, since the news of Iran’s strikes came through, Brent crude has now seen its biggest 3-day gain in 18 months, having risen by +8.15% since Monday’s close. And broader volatility has also mounted, with the VIX index closing back above 20pts yesterday for the first time in nearly a month.
Whilst the geopolitical situation has dominated attention, yesterday also brought another strong batch of US data, which cast fresh doubt on how quickly the Fed would cut rates. In particular, the latest ISM services index for September came in at a 19-month high of 54.9 (vs. 51.7 expected), which was above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. So that led to more scepticism on the idea that the US was heading into a sharper downturn, and the new orders component also surged to a 19-month high of 59.4. That came alongside several other releases, including the initial jobless claims for the week ending September 28. They posted an increase to 225k (vs. 221k expected), but the 4-week moving average still fell back to its lowest level since May, at 224.25k.
Macro data will be in the spotlight again today, as we’ve got the latest US jobs report for September coming out. Bear in mind that on the day of the last two reports, the S&P 500 sold off by more than -1.7%, so this is something markets have been very reactive to, particularly given that other labour market data has been slowing down recently. In terms of what to expect, our US economists are looking for nonfarm payrolls to come in at +150k, with the unemployment rate rounding up to 4.3% on the back of a slight pick up in participation. For our economists’ full preview and to register for their post-release webinar, see here. The jobs report will be very important for the Fed’s next decision, with market pricing still in the balance between a 25bp and a 50bp cut. But there’s another jobs report on November 1 in the week before the Fed’s next decision, so we have plenty of data still to come that can influence the decision.
Ahead of the jobs report, yesterday’s strong US data led markets to dial back the chance of aggressive rate cuts over the coming months. For instance, Fed funds futures pricing for December 2025 rose by +8.9bps, closing above 3% for the first time since early September. In turn, that led to a fresh selloff for US Treasuries, with the 2yr yield (+6.3bps) up to 3.71%, whilst the 10yr yield (+6.4bps) was up to 3.85%, which is its highest closing level in a month. So we’ve seen a clear tick up in yields over recent sessions, as the solid US data has made it harder to justify the pricing of rapid cuts more normally associated with recessions. Moreover, the rise in yields coupled with higher geopolitical risks helped the dollar index (+0.31%) advance for a fourth session in a row, leaving it on course for its best week since April.
Over in Europe, sovereign bond yields saw a similar trend, with those on 10yr bunds (+5.4bps), OATs (+7.9bps) and BTPs (+6.2bps) all moving higher. The main exception was here in the UK, where the 10yr gilt yield fell -0.9bps. That followed comments from BoE Governor Bailey, who said in an interview with the Guardian that if the news on inflation remained positive, then they could become “a bit more activist” about cutting rates. The comments also contributed to a fall in sterling, which ended the day down -1.10% against the US Dollar.
For equities, geopolitical fears outweighed the more positive US data, and the major indices fell back on both sides of the Atlantic. For the S&P 500 (-0.17%) it was only a modest decline, but that still left the index at a two-week low. Small-cap stocks underperformed in particular, with the Russell 2000 (-0.68%) losing ground for a third consecutive session. And in Europe there were also sharp losses that saw the STOXX 600 fall -0.93%.
Looking forward, it’s been widely reported that EU member states will vote today on whether to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Our European economists have published a preview of the decision (link here), where they expect EU countries to give the green light to additional tariffs. Reuters have reported that Germany will vote against the introduction of tariffs, although their reports have also said that others including France and Italy are in favour.
Overnight in Asia, the Hang Seng (+1.75%) has posted a further advance after the previous day’s losses, leaving the index on track to close at its highest level since January 2023. Markets in mainland China remain shut for a holiday, but there’ve been gains elsewhere, with the Nikkei (+0.27%) and the KOSPI (+0.62%) both posting smaller advances. Similarly, US equity futures are also pointing to modest gains, with those on the S&P 500 up +0.07%.
In terms of yesterday’s other data, we did get the final services and composite PMIs from around the world. In the Euro Area, they were a bit stronger than the flash readings, with the final composite PMI at 49.6 in September (vs. flash 48.9). However, the US composite reading came down a bit from the flash print to 54 (vs. flash 54.4).
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US jobs report for September, along with the German and UK construction PMIs for September, and French industrial production for August. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB Vice President de Guindos, the ECB’s Villeroy, Simkus, Kazaks, Muller, Centeno and Escriva, the Fed’s Williams and the BoE’s Pill.
2B) European report
EU approve additional EV tariff, traders cautious ahead of NFP report – Newsquawk US Market Open
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 05:44 AM
- European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures trade tentatively on either side of the unchanged mark ahead of today’s US NFP report.
- Dollar is rangebound, GBP and JPY are attempting to claw back some of their recent losses.
- USTs are flat whilst Bunds slip extending on this week’s pressure; Gilts are also on the backfoot fuelled by hawkish-leaning commentary from BoE’s Pill.
- Crude continued to hold an upward bias as focus remains on the geopolitical tensions, XAU/base metals hold a mild upward bias.
- Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, Canadian Ivey PMI, Comments from Fed’s Williams, Goolsbee, ECB’s Elderson.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.3%) began the session on a modestly weaker footing, but has edged off lows as the morning progressed. Trade still remains tentative in the run-up to today’s key US NFP report.
- European sectors are mostly firmer trade with no real theme or bias. Energy resides at the top of the chart. To the downside, very mild losses seen in Technology and Media, although the breadth of the losses are modest.
- US Equity Futures (ES U/C, NQ +0.1%, RTY -0.1%) are trading very modestly above the unchanged mark, with traders very mindful of the looming US NFP report.
- DoJ and SEC back class action alleging NVIDIA (NVDA) hid crypto mining revenue, according to Cointelegraph.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- USD is mixed/flat vs. peers in the run-up to today’s eagerly anticipated NFP print. A strong release could see DXY make a more sustained breach of the 102 mark after venturing as high as 102.09 on Thursday.
- EUR is flat vs. the USD after being softer vs. the USD for the past five sessions on account of a dovish ECB repricing and as Powell guided markets towards a 25bps (as opposed to a 50bps) cut earlier in the week. For now, EUR/USD remains within yesterday’s 1.1008-49 range.
- GBP is a touch firmer vs. the USD after what was a particularly bruising session yesterday on account of comments from BoE Governor Bailey that the Bank could begin cutting rates at a faster pace. Cable has picked itself up from a 1.3093 low yesterday to a 1.3167 peak today but this is a far cry from the 1.3270 high seen on Thursday.
- JPY is attempting to claw back some losses vs. the USD which were triggered earlier in the week by comments from Japanese PM Ishiba, downplaying the possibility of a near-term rate cut. USD/JPY ventured as high as 147.23 but has since returned to a 146 handle.
- AUD/USD is steady vs. the USD but in close proximity to yesterday’s low that was triggered by the hot ISM services print which dragged the pair lower to a 0.6829 base vs. the 0.6942 YTD peak printed earlier in the week.
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs are flat, in contrast to European peers in what appears to be an attempt to claw back some of yesterday’s ISM services-induced losses which dragged the Dec’24 contract to a 113.28+ low vs. the 114.14+ high seen earlier in the session. All focus will be on today’s US NFP report.
- Bunds have extended the pullback seen since Tuesday which saw the Dec’24 10yr print a fresh contract high at 136.20. EZ-specifics has been light so focus will be on the US employment data. The German 10yr yield has continued its upside and has been as high as 2.174% vs. the 2.011% multi-month low printed earlier in the week.
- Gilts kicked the session off on the backfoot inline with European paper and a reversal of yesterday’s upside that was driven by dovish comments from BoE Governor Bailey. Downside for the UK 10yr was added to by comments from BoE Chief Economist Pill who took a more hawkish stance than his boss.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- Crude is holding an upward bias against the backdrop of heightened geopolitics heading into the weekend, with Israel’s response yet to come. Brent’Dec resides near its weekly best in a USD 77.39-78.42/bbl range.
- Mixed trade across precious metals ahead of the US jobs report but spot gold holds a mild upward bias on the back of the aforementioned geopolitics. Spot gold briefly topped yesterday’s high (USD 2,663/oz).
- Base metals hold a mild upward bias but largely treading water in a tentative market awaiting the US jobs report. Mainland Chinese markets remained closed overnight for Golden Week holiday.
- UAE’s ADNOC set Nov Murban crude OSP at USD 73.41/bbl (prev. USD 77.94/bbl)
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- French Industrial Output MM (Aug) 1.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.5%, Rev. 0.2%)
- Spanish Ind Output Cal Adj YY (Aug) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. -0.4%)
- German HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 41.7 (Prev. 38.9)
- Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 47.8 (Prev. 46.6)
- EU HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 42.1 (Prev. 41.4)
- French HCOB Construction PMI (Sep) 37.9 (Prev. 40.1)
- Italy Q2 GDP revised to 0.6% YY (prev. 0.9%), via ISTAT
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- “EU countries approve duties (up to 35% [additional tariffs]) on unfairly subsidized Chinese electric cars, despite Germany’s last-minute opposition”, according to Politico (as expected)
- BoE’s Chief Economist Pill said ample reason for caution in assessing the dissipation of inflation persistence; need for such caution points to a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restrictions. Further cuts in the Bank Rate remain in prospect but it will be important to guard against the risk of cutting rates either too far or too fast. He remains concerned about the possibility of structural changes sustaining more lasting inflationary pressures. “does not think level of interest rates is having more than a marginal impact on UK business environment”
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- Port operators offered 62% pay increases to end the dockworkers’ strike with the condition that workers return to work and agree to efficiency gains, according to WSJ. ILA announced shortly after it reached a tentative agreement with USMX on wages and that all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume with immediate effect.
- Former US President Obama is to campaign for Democratic candidate and VP Harris in the run-up to the election, according to Washington Post.
GEOPOLITICS
- Iranian Supreme leader Khamenei said will strike again if necessary. Adds “we will not delay nor rush to respond to Israel”.
- Israeli army calls on residents of 20 towns in southern Lebanon to evacuate, according to Sky News Arabia
- Hezbollah announces targeting of northern Haifa with a rocket barrage, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel’s military called for the immediate evacuation of specific buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs and multiple Israeli raids were then reported in the area, while Israel also conducted a strike on the outside perimeter of Beirut Airport. Furthermore, Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Hezbollah’s Executive Council head Hashem Safieddine was the target of Israel’s attack in Beirut and Israel’s military said it killed Zahi Yasser Abdel Razak Ofi who is the head of the Hamas network in the West Bank’s Tulkarm.
OTHER
- Ukraine’s military said it hit fuel storage facility in Russia’s Voronezh region
- Ukrainian drone strikes targeted a fuel depot in the Russian town of Anna in Voronezh Oblast, while the Russian emergencies ministry later announced that a fuel depot was on fire in Russia’s Perm region.
- North Korean leader Kim warned North Korea will use nuclear weapons if South Korea and the US use force, while he said enemies’ threats will not take away North Korea’s nuclear weapons and it has irreversibly secured nuclear power, as well as the system and function for using it, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is modestly firmer and climbs back above USD 61.5k, whilst Ethereum edges past USD 2.3k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region heading into the weekend and the latest US NFP report.
- ASX 200 fell with almost all sectors in the red and miners leading the retreat although energy bucked the trend after the oil surge.
- Nikkei 225 traded higher owing to recent currency weakness and after PM Ishiba instructed to compile a comprehensive economic package, although the gains were limited in the absence of any major macro drivers or key data releases.
- Hang Seng outperformed in a rebound from yesterday’s profit-taking with the advances spearheaded by tech strength and the energy sector was also boosted by the recent surge in oil prices.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said PM Ishiba instructed to compile a comprehensive economic package, while Hayashi added that they will compile a supplementary budget after the lower house election.
- Germany will reportedly vote against EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, according to sources via Reuters.
2C ASIAN REPORT.
APAC stocks Mixed Ahead of US NFP, US Dock Workers End Strike – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 01:23 AM
- APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region ahead of the latest US NFP report.
- US dock workers have agreed a deal to end their current strike action.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.9% on Thursday.
- DXY sits just below the 102 mark, JPY outperforms major peers, EUR/USD remains on a 1.10 handle.
- Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon is expected to last no more than a few weeks, according to ABC citing security officials.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ/UK Construction PMIs, US NFP, Canadian Ivey PMI, BoE’s Pill, Fed’s Williams, ECB’s de Guindos & Elderson.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed in the red in which the major indices only suffered mild losses and the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed, while bonds were pressured and the dollar was underpinned as participants digested a slew of data releases including ISM Services PMI which printed a massive beat as the headline topped all analysts forecasts and was led by a surge in New Orders and Business Activity, while the inflationary gauge of Prices Paid climbed and the Employment component slipped into contractionary territory. The other releases were mixed as Initial Jobless Claims were higher than expected but Continued Claims printed below estimates and Challenger Layoffs also declined, although the focus now turns to the all-important US NFP report.
- SPX -0.17% at 5,700, NDX -0.05% at 19,793, DJIA -0.44% at 42,011, RUT -0.68% at 2,180.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 voter) said the dockworkers’ strike was predicted and retailers have been stockpiling, while they have about 2 weeks of stuff and after that, will forecast more of an effect. Furthermore, Goolsbee said new inflation numbers are at the Fed’s target and the labour market is at full employment.
- Port operators offered 62% pay increases to end the dockworkers’ strike with the condition that workers return to work and agree to efficiency gains, according to WSJ. ILA announced shortly after it reached a tentative agreement with USMX on wages and that all current job actions will cease and all work covered by the master contract will resume with immediate effect.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mixed amid light pertinent catalysts for the region heading into the weekend and the latest US NFP report.
- ASX 200 fell with almost all sectors in the red and miners leading the retreat although energy bucked the trend after the oil surge.
- Nikkei 225 traded higher owing to recent currency weakness and after PM Ishiba instructed to compile a comprehensive economic package, although the gains were limited in the absence of any major macro drivers or key data releases.
- Hang Seng outperformed in a rebound from yesterday’s profit-taking with the advances spearheaded by tech strength and the energy sector was also boosted by the recent surge in oil prices.
- US equity futures (ES U/C) are steady after the prior day’s flat performance and as the key BLS jobs data looms.
- European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.9% on Thursday.
FX
- DXY held on to this week’s spoils after briefly climbing above the 102.00 level on the back of strong ISM Services data.
- EUR/USD traded little changed but was off worse levels as it got some respite from the recent suffering against the dollar.
- GBP/USD proceeded sideways with price action contained following the recent underperformance that was triggered by a dovish remark from BoE Governor Bailey which dragged the pair briefly below the 1.3100 level where support eventually held.
- USD/JPY marginally pulled back from yesterday’s peak after failing to sustain a brief foray into the 147.00 territory.
- Antipodeans were rangebound amid the mixed risk tone and absence of any tier-1 releases.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures attempted to nurse some of their losses after retreating amid strong ISM Services data and the surge in oil prices.
- Bund futures remained subdued firmly beneath the 135.00 level after trickling lower throughout the prior session.
- 10yr JGB futures tracked the recent losses in global peers with demand restricted amid a quiet calendar and absence of BoJ purchases.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures took a breather after rallying by over 5% during the previous day owing to the geopolitical tensions and comments from US President Biden who responded “We are discussing that” when asked if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil fields.
- Spot gold traded rangebound after yesterday’s two-way price action and with participants awaiting the key US jobs data.
- Copper futures lacked direction amid the mixed risk appetite and the continued absence of its largest purchaser.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin edged mild gains overnight and briefly climbed above the USD 61,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said PM Ishiba instructed to compile a comprehensive economic package, while Hayashi added that they will compile a supplementary budget after the lower house election.
- Germany will reportedly vote against EU tariffs on Chinese EVs, according to sources via Reuters.
DATA RECAP
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel’s military called for the immediate evacuation of specific buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs and multiple Israeli raids were then reported in the area, while Israel also conducted a strike on the outside perimeter of Beirut Airport. Furthermore, Israel’s Channel 14 reported that Hezbollah’s Executive Council head Hashem Safieddine was the target of Israel’s attack in Beirut and Israel’s military said it killed Zahi Yasser Abdel Razak Ofi who is the head of the Hamas network in the West Bank’s Tulkarm.
- Israel’s Chief of Staff said they will continue to fight on all fronts, according to Al Arabiya.
- Israel’s Foreign Ministry said their response to Iran will take into account security and diplomatic considerations, but they will not target civilian sites.
- Israel’s ambassador to the UN said they have a lot of options when it comes to Iran and questioned how long should Western world wait when it is known that Iran is building nuclear capabilities, while the official said they have to consider all options if diplomacy fails.
- Israel’s response to the Iranian missile attack will be within a few days, according to Sky News Arabia citing Israeli media.
- Israel’s ground operation in Lebanon is expected to last no more than a few weeks, according to ABC citing security officials.
- Israel’s military said it intercepted a drone in southern Israel with no injuries reported, while Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked a target in southern Israel, according to a statement.
- Lebanon’s Transport Minister said an Israeli strike hit Lebanon’s Masnaa border crossing which cut off the road to Syria, while the official added that the strike has closed off the road used by hundreds of thousands of people to flee in recent days.
- Lebanese Minister of Economy said Israeli raids destroyed factories and hit the agricultural and tourism sectors.
- US President Biden responded that hurricanes also raise oil prices when asked if oil prices will go up if Israel attacks Iran’s oil facilities and said he will not negotiate in public when asked if he is urging Israel not to attack Iran’s oil facilities. It was separately reported that Biden said he doesn’t think an all-out war will break out in the Middle East but added there is a lot of work to be done, while he noted that they helped Israel and will protect it.
- US official said President Biden was clear that we do not support an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
- US does not believe Israel has decided how to respond to Iran, including whether to hit oil facilities, according to Reuters.
- US Pentagon said Israeli preparations to target Iran will take time and US-Israeli coordination in this regard continues, according to Sky News Arabia.
- US officials have held a series of conversations with top Israeli officials in recent days, as the US and Western allies try to limit the scope of Israel’s response and prevent a broader regional conflict, according to FT citing sources.
- US State Department denied the validity of what the Lebanese Foreign Minister said that Nasrallah had agreed to a ceasefire before his assassination, according to Sky News Arabia.
- G7 draft statement called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and restraint from Middle East players, while it warned of uncontrollable escalation in the region and condemned in the strongest terms Iran’s direct military attack against Israel, which it said constitutes a serious threat to regional stability. Furthermore, it reiterated its call for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the unconditional release of all hostages.
- UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed and US National Security Advisor Sullivan discussed Lebanon and the importance of reaching a diplomatic settlement that enables civilians on both sides of the border to return home safely, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Yemen’s Houthis broadcasted images of targeting a British oil ship on October 1st in the Red Sea, according to Sky News Arabia.
OTHER
- Ukrainian drone strikes targeted a fuel depot in the Russian town of Anna in Voronezh Oblast, while the Russian emergencies ministry later announced that a fuel depot was on fire in Russia’s Perm region.
- North Korean leader Kim warned North Korea will use nuclear weapons if South Korea and the US use force, while he said enemies’ threats will not take away North Korea’s nuclear weapons and it has irreversibly secured nuclear power, as well as the system and function for using it, according to KCNA.
2 JAPAN
JAPAN/YEN
END
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
ENGLAND
The UK’s “Chicken License” Rebellion: The Good Way To Deal With Bad Laws
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,
As of today, the UK’s “Chicken License” is in full effect. October 1st marked the deadline for registering your chickens with the proper authority.
Moving forward anyone caught with an unlicensed chicken will be in breach of the law and subject to fines and poultry reclamation.
I am entirely serious.
Back in March the UK govt’s “Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs” (DEFRA) announced changes to the poultry registration laws, essentially redefining a “flock” from “50 birds or more” to 1.
So, from now on, everybody in the country who keeps even a single bird – not just chickens, all outdoor birds – has to register as a poultry keeper.
You understand, this is all about protecting birds and the public from avian influenza, not at all about increasing government monitoring with the final aim of stamping down on self-sufficiency.
Banish that cynical thought from your head.
Fortunately, the people of the UK have a tried-and-tested method of dealing with absurdity—more absurdity.
In the run-up to the deadline thousands of people took to the DEFRA website to register their “chickens” – frozen, nuggets, unhatched and even rubber:
The result is that the online service strained…
…and then broke:
https://x.com/Trying_Very/status/1840474447809052753
That’s all poisoned data flooding the system rendering the register all but useless. A display of the power of malicious compliance.
Good work.
end
UK
\We knew that this will happen: a massive 51% increase in HIV cases due to migrants
(zerohedge)
Migrants Enrich UK With Massive 51% Surge In HIV Cases To 15-Year High
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 02:45 AM
Though “Diversity is Our Strength” is a cornerstone mantra of woke leftist ideology, it’s been steadily crumbling as people across the West observe the many real-world downsides of uncontrolled migration. Health officials in the United Kingdom have just hit that cornerstone with another sledgehammer, reporting that HIV cases in the UK soared by 51% last year to a 15-year high.
According to a new report from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the UK counted just over 6,000 new cases in 2023. Notably, for the first time, more than half of them (53%) were attributed to people who were originally diagnosed outside the UK. Of that set, 75% of the carriers are African. The migrants are also spreading the disease amongst each other after arriving — 253 diagnoses were attributed to people who’d been in England less than two years.
“The rise in HIV testing together with a higher and sustained positivity in black African heterosexuals may be suggestive of ongoing transmission. However, this number could also be affected by changing patterns of migration with a recent rise in people diagnosed with HIV abroad arriving in England.” – UKHSA
The sudden surge in HIV cases may have doomed health agencies’ goal to achieve zero HIV transmission in the UK by 2030.
However, rather than reasonably calling for the government to pump the brakes on immigration, public health types are instead reflexively spouting Marxist blather — such as National Aids Trust chief executive Robbie Currie, who told the Telegraph that “the latest published HIV data in England shows clearly that a continuing lack of equity and equality is standing in the way of people being able to live well with HIV.”
Similarly, Terrence Higgins Trust chief Richard Angell said “Today’s new figures show people from ethnic minorities face an increasing burden of HIV, with rising diagnoses and worse health outcomes than the population as a whole.”
Africa is far and away the world’s largest cauldron of HIV: A whopping two thirds of the world’s HIV-diagnosed population live in the continent. Meanwhile, 23% of the work and study visas issued by the UK last year were given to Africans.
In addition to compounding the peril of the disease, the surge in the UK’s HIV-positive population also represents a public financial burden in a country with a socialized medicine scheme that’s already under stress. The lifetime cost of managing an HIV patient in the UK has been varyingly estimated to be between £73,000 and £404,000.
END
SWEDEN
Sweden Could Soon Have 1 Million Illiterates, Largely Due To Mass Immigration
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 02:00 AM
The number of people who are illiterate in Sweden is expected to exceed 800,000 in winter of this year, with researchers expecting the number to soon reach 1 million, in large part due to mass immigration.
The most recent survey by Statistics Sweden shows there are currently around 780,000 people between the ages of 16 and 65 who are illiterate in Sweden, but this number is soaring.
“Each month, eight to ten illiterate students arrive,” said Rita Sommarkrans, SFI teacher in Västerås, to SVT. She added that if someone can’t read or write, it’s hard for them to find a place, pay their bills, or even book a doctor’s appointment.
“If this trend continues, we risk having an entire generation of young people who are effectively functionally illiterate,” wrote Minister of Education Johan Pehrson and Minister of School Affairs Lotta Edholm in an introductory article.
However, Swedish publication Fria Tider notes that the ministers are failing to explain what the main cause behind the massive illiteracy problem is in the country, which is mass immigration of illiterate adults from the Third World, which the allegedly conservative ruling government is failing to stop.
However, many of these foreigners are bringing children or giving birth to children who are entering the Swedish school system. In some cities, Swedish children are already the minority in the school system, such as Mälmo. In fact, the situation has gotten so extreme in that city that city officials are proposing to teach in Arabic instead of Swedish, as Remix News reported in the past. However, such a move will only accelerate the problem of illiteracy and result in even deeper divisions in society.
Due to the falling literacy rates, Sweden is transforming its entire school system, making compulsory schooling 10 years instead of nine. In 2024, the number of students who were able to successfully complete the compulsory nine-year primary school continued to decrease.
Out of the slightly more than 120,000 Swedish students in primary school, 20,000 finished compulsory school in 2024 without graduating to upper secondary school. This segment of students will have little chance of getting a job or career, and as Swedish news portal Samnytt writes, many of them will turn to crime or welfare to get by.
“It is worrying that the results of 9th graders are decreasing. More students should complete primary school, not fewer. Failure to complete primary school is one of the main risk factors for unemployment and social exclusion,” said Anna Castberg, a department head at the Swedish Education Agency, in an official press release.
The Swedish National Education Office notes that the education level of the parents greatly influences the grades of the children. The lowest level of education is found among non-Western migrants, and consequently students of this group dominate among the worst performers. In addition, the education gap between Swedes and migrants is increasing instead of decreasing.
Most new citizens come from non-EU Muslim countries
In fact, a new report from the Swedish Migration Agency now shows that Sweden has granted 660,362 migrants Swedish citizenship since 2015, with the vast majority coming from non-EU Muslim countries.
One of the top recipients of Swedish citizenship is Somalia, which is a country with one of the lowest levels of education in the world and an official illiteracy rate of 62.2 percent. In many cases, the people arriving from this country do not even know how to read and write in their own language, let alone Swedish. Data shows that 53,543 Somalians received citizenship since 2015, the second most of any country.
In first place was Syria, with 147,579 Syrians receiving citizenship since 2015, or 22 percent of the total.
Sweden’s performance in the PISA test has also drastically fallen, which will have dramatic results for Sweden’s economy over the coming years, as the country relies on a highly trained and high-tech workforce delivering high-value goods to the world market. In fact, the government was embroiled in a scandal in 2020 when its high PISA scores turned out to be a fraud.
At the time, Sweden’s Expressen wrote, “The latest PISA results showed an increase for Swedish students. Expressen can now reveal how a large number of foreign-born students were wrongly removed from the PISA selection, and that Sweden thereby violated the OECD’s official regulations. The figures also suggest that Swedish-born students with weak language skills were also removed.”
The paper further wrote that “If the rules had been followed, the Swedish results would have been significantly worse and Sweden would probably have gone backwards in all three subjects compared to the last exam.”
Swedish schools are now dangerous for teachers and students
Swedish schools are also becoming more dangerous. The Swedish Teachers’ Union (Sveriges Lärare) issued a warning about the increased threats and violence facing teachers in Stockholm.
The number of serious incidents increased 36 percent to 159 cases in 2023 compared to 2022.
“There are threats ranging from ‘I’ll kill you’ and ‘I’ll shoot you’ to direct acts of violence,” said Simon Sandström, the union’s security officer, in an interview with Swedish Radio.
END
EU/CHINA
cold war intensifies:
EU Slaps Up To 45% Tariff On Chinese-Made EVs As “Economic Cold War” Risks Soar
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 08:00 AM
Bloomberg reports that EU member states have voted to slap tariffs of up to 45% on Chinese-made electric vehicles, ignoring warnings from some members that this dangerous move risks sparking an “economic cold war” with Beijing.
The European Commission, the bloc’s executive arm, recently concluded its anti-subsidy investigation into Chinese imports of battery electric vehicles. The findings supported the Commission’s move to implement the duties, which would last for five years.
Sources familiar with the voting told Bloomberg that ten member states voted in favor of the duties, while Germany and four others voted against – and 12, including Spain, abstained.
The new duty rate will be as high as 35% for foreign EV manufacturers exporting from China. There is already an existing 10% duty, which means the rate for some foreign EVs imported into the bloc could be as high as 45%. We have provided additional color on the rates here.
The Commission released this statement:
Today, the European Commission’s proposal to impose definitive countervailing duties on imports of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) from China has obtained the necessary support from EU Member States for the adoption of tariffs. This represents another step towards the conclusion of the Commission’s anti-subsidy investigation.
In parallel, the EU and China continue to work hard to explore an alternative solution that would have to be fully WTO-compatible, adequate in addressing the injurious subsidization established by the Commission’s investigation, monitorable and enforceable.
A Commission Implementing Regulation including the definitive findings in the investigation must be published in the Official Journal by 30 October 2024, at the latest.
As we’ve previously noted, the duties are part of an anti-subsidy investigation launched earlier this year by the Commission. About 100 firms were investigated. The big finding included market-distorting subsidies across China’s entire EV supply chain.
Meanwhile, the bloc has been actively pushing far-left climate change policies to de-growth its economy. The entire bloc is a mess with recession threats emanating from Germany as its automotive manufacturing industry stalls.
Former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned last month that “China’s state-sponsored competition” threatened member states. Last year, the EU traded 739 billion euros ($815 billion) with China.
Earlier, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said the EU tariffs on China could spark an “economic cold war”…
European carmakers, including Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, BMW, and Volkswagen, all have a massive footprint in China that could be jeopardized if Beijing retaliates.
But hold up, wait a second. Haven’t far-left Western leaders, including many in the US, called Trump’s tariff plans against China ‘terrible’? Hypocrisy at its finest.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
I
ISRAEL/SYRIA/LEBANON
Army destroys 3.5-kilometer smuggling tunnel from Syria to Lebanon
Troops of the 188th Armored Brigade are seen operating in southern Lebanon, in handout image published October 4, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The military says fighter jets overnight struck a 3.5-kilometer-long tunnel that crossed between Lebanon and Syria, and which the IDF says was used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons.
According to the IDF, the tunnel was operated by Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with delivering weapons from Iran and its proxies to Lebanon.
The strike destroyed the tunnel where weapons were transported through and stored, as well as buildings, weapon depots and other infrastructure in the vicinity, the military says.
A separate overnight strike targeted “infrastructure” at the Masnaa Border Crossing between Lebanon and Syria after the IDF said it identified attempts to deliver Iranian weapons to Hezbollah.
The IDF has said it has stepped up efforts to prevent any weapons being delivered from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria. On Tuesday, the commander of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 was killed in a strike on Beirut.
IDF says it destroyed tunnel used to smuggle Iranian weapons from Syria to Lebanon
Cross-border passage targeted in airstrike; military also hits ‘infrastructure’ at Masnaa border crossing used by Lebanese civilians; minister says border sealed by crater
By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
ToI Staff and ReutersToday, 1:30 pmUpdated at 2:09 pm
People fleeing intensified fighting in Lebanon, walk around a crater caused by an Israeli strike on Hezbollah weapons smuggling infrastructure, in the area of Masnaa on the Lebanese side of the border crossing with Syria, on October 4, 2024. (HASSAN JARRAH / AFP)
The Israel Defense Forces said Friday that fighter jets struck a two-mile-long tunnel overnight that crossed between Lebanon and Syria, and which the military said was used by Hezbollah to smuggle Iranian weapons.
According to the IDF, the tunnel was operated by Hezbollah’s Unit 4400, which is tasked with delivering weapons from Iran and its proxies to Lebanon.
The strike destroyed the tunnel where weapons were transported through and stored, as well as buildings, weapon depots and other infrastructure in the vicinity, the military said.
It was the first time the military has announced the destruction of a tunnel between Lebanon and Syria.
The IDF also said Friday it had conducted a separate overnight airstrike on “infrastructure” at Lebanon’s main border crossing with Syria, after identifying an attempted delivery of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah via the civilian crossing.
Lebanese Transport Minister Ali Hamieh, a Hezbollah member, told Reuters the strike had created a 12-foot (four-meter) crater next to the Masnaa Border Crossing, sealing off Lebanon’s main route to Syria.
The Lebanese government said that some 310,000 people — mostly Syrians — have used the road to flee to Syria in the past ten days, amid the escalation in fighting.
The IDF has said it has stepped up efforts to prevent any weapons being delivered from Iran to Hezbollah via Syria. On Tuesday, the commander of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 was killed in a strike on Beirut.
Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF Arabic spokesperson, on Thursday accused Hezbollah of using the border crossing to smuggle Iranian arms into Lebanon.
“The IDF will not allow the smuggling of these weapons and will not hesitate to act if forced to do so,” he wrote on X.
Hamieh responded to the Israeli allegations at a press conference on Thursday, saying the crossing was subject to the authority of the Lebanese state and was being secured “in accordance with international law.”
The border crossing strike came hours after a massive Israeli airstrike on Beirut — said to have targeted Hashem Safieddine, the apparent successor to longtime Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah — at the terror group’s intelligence headquarters.
Residents inspect the damage following Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in the Mreijeh neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs on October 4, 2024. (AFP)
The strikes came as the IDF broadened its ground operation in south Lebanon on Thursday and Hezbollah fired over 240 rockets into northern Israel.
The heavy rocket fire into northern Israel continued Friday.
The past two weeks have seen Israel step up its strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon, all but decimating the terror group’s top command in a series of massive airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon.
The escalation followed Israel’s decision last month to make the return home of northern residents an official war aim. Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, out of fear Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack.
People fleeing Lebanon wait to cross the border with Syria through the Masnaa crossing in eastern Lebanon, on September 24, 2024. (Hassan Jarrah/AFP)
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
So far, the skirmishes have resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side, and — excluding the soldiers killed in the ground operation — the deaths of 22 IDF soldiers and reservists. There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
The IDF has announced the deaths of nine soldiers in the ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
The military has described the operations as “limited, localized and targeted raids,” with the goal of demolishing Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the border area. Officials have said that the military intends for the operations to end as quickly as possible.
Since Israel escalated its airstrikes on the Hezbollah terror group on Monday, more than 630 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to the country’s health ministry.
At least a quarter of those killed have been women and children, according to Lebanese health officials. More than 2,000 were wounded. Israel has said that many Hezbollah operatives are among the dead.
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
Seems that Hezbollah successor to Nasrallah, Safieddine targeted in that strike we reported on yesterday.
(Times of Israel)
Nasrallah’s presumed successor said to be target of heavy Israeli strike in Beirut
NYT says Hashem Safieddine was meeting other Hezbollah leaders in underground bunker bombed by IDF; no word on his fate * Military downs ‘suspected hostile aircraft’ from ‘the east’
The Israeli attack in Beirut’s southern suburbs targeted a meeting that Hashem Safieddine was attending with other senior Hezbollah leaders in an underground bunker, the New York Times reports, citing three unnamed Israeli officials.
It remains unclear if Safieddine was harmed in the Israeli strike, which has reported to have been one of the heaviest in the past year.
Nasrallah’s presumed successor said to be target of heavy Israeli strike in Beirut
Senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine speaks during a conference for Saudi opposition in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, Lebanon, Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2022. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
The target of the heavy Israeli airstrike in Beirut is reported to be Hashem Safieddine.
Safieddine, the head of Hezbollah’s executive council, is presumed to be the successor of Hassan Nasrallah following his assassination last week.
Axios reporter Barak Ravid cites two Israeli sources as saying Safieddine was the target.
The IDF has not yet commented on the strike.
END
Safieddine, the new presumed successor to Nasrallah is killed in that airstrike. Could not possibly survive.
(Times of Israel)
Security establishment’s growing assessment is that Nasrallah’s presumed successor killed in IDF strike
Senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine speaks during a conference for Saudi opposition in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, Lebanon, Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2022. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Channel 12 reports that the Israeli security establishment’s growing assessment is that the presumed successor to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, was killed in the IDF’s strike in Beirut yesterday.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/this afternoon
IDF: More than 70 rockets launched from Lebanon at northern Israel in past two hours
More than 70 rockets were launched from Lebanon at northern Israel in the past two hours, the IDF says.
According to the IDF, many of the rockets were shot down by air defenses, and the remainder struck open areas.
Separately, two suspected drones that entered Israeli airspace from Lebanon a short while ago were shot down by the Israeli Air Force, the military says.
No injuries were caused in the attacks.
Meanwhile, fighter jets and drones struck dozens of Hezbollah sites across Lebanon in the past day, the IDF says.
The military says targets in Beirut included weapon depots, command rooms, intelligence sites, surveillance equipment, and other infrastructure.
In southern Lebanon, the IDF says dozens of Hezbollah weapon depots, cells of operatives, rocket launchers, and buildings used by the terror group were struck.
ISRAEL/IRAN
Israel’s next target: Former PM Ehud Barak says Israel likely to attack Iranian oil industry
Former PM Ehud Barak spoke against conducting a strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities, claiming that it may not be effective at delaying the regime from acquiring a nuclear arsenal.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 4, 2024 11:02Updated: OCTOBER 4, 2024 12:02
Former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak claimed that Israel was likely to attack Iran’s oil industry as a symbolic retaliation to Tehran’s Tuesday ballistic missile attack, the Guardian reported on Friday.
“Israel has a compelling need, even an imperative, to respond. I think that no sovereign nation on Earth could fail to respond,” Barak said in an interview.
Barak cited the recent strikes on Houthi oil facilities in Yemen’s Hodeidah as a model for the Israeli aerial strikes that may come in response to the Iranian attack. The strike on Hodeidah followed the Iran-backed terror group launching missiles toward the Jewish state.
“I think we might see something like that. It might be a massive attack, and it could be repeated more than once,” he told the Guardian.
According to a Reuters report, Iran has managed to export oil worth $35 billion annually, even under international sanctions.
While US President Joe Biden voiced strong opposition to the potential targeting of Iran’s nuclear site, Barak said that such an attack may simply not be effective as delaying the regime’s ability to acquire a nuclear arsenal.
“There are some commentators and even some people within the defense establishment who raised the question: Why the hell not hit the nuclear military program?” Barak asked. “A little bit more than a decade ago, I was probably the most hawkish person in Israeli leadership arguing that it was worth considering very seriously, because there was an actual capability to delay them by several years.
“That’s not the case right now, because Iran is a de facto threshold country,” he argued. “They do not have yet a weapon – it may take them a year to have one, and even half a decade to have a small arsenal. Practically speaking, you cannot easily delay them in any significant manner.”
While Barak said he thought that an attack on nuclear infrastructure was futile, he theorized that Netanyahu’s cabinet would likely still push for such an action as a symbolic gesture.
“You can cause certain damage, but even this might be perceived by some of the planners as worth the risk because the alternative is to sit idly by and do nothing,” Barak said. “So probably there will be even an attempt to hit certain nuclear-related targets.”
Slamming Netanyahu’s war strategy
The former prime minister, while defending Israel’s right to carry out a response to Tehran, heavily criticized the current Israeli government for allowing the war to have expanded to this extent. Barak claimed that Israel should have stood behind plans to replace Hamas with a new Palestinian government.
“I think that a strong response is inevitable. That doesn’t mean it was written in heaven a year ago that it’s going to happen,” Barak said. “There were probably several opportunities to limit this conflict before it turned into something like a full-scale Middle East clash. For reasons that cannot be explained under any strategic thought, Netanyahu rejected any kind of discussion of what we call ‘the day after’.
“I do not put the blame for the whole event on Netanyahu. This is basically the fault of Hamas and Hezbollah and Iran behind them,” Barak said. “But having said that, we have a responsibility to take action under a certain innate logic that understands the situation, the opportunity, and the constraints. There is an old Roman saying: ‘If you don’t know which port you want to reach, no wind will take you there.’”
UDI EZION contributed to this report.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH;
Israel goes after Nasrallah’s presumed successor Safieddine in a heavy assault. Not sure if he is hurt.
(Jerusalem Post)
Nasrallah’s presumed successor said to be target of heavy Israeli strike in Beirut
Unclear if Hashem Safieddine hurt; NYT says he was meeting other Hezbollah leaders in underground bunker; IDF says strike targeted Hezbollah’s intelligence HQ; drone from east shot down over Beit She’an valley
By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Agencies and ToI StaffToday, 9:51 amUpdated at 10:59 am
Senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine speaks during a conference for Saudi opposition in the southern Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh, Lebanon, Wednesday, Jan. 12, 2022. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
Israel reportedly targeted the presumed successor to Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in a heavy airstrike on Beirut’s southern suburbs around midnight Thursday, just under a week after the head of the Iran-backed terror group was killed in an Israeli attack.
Both the Axios news site and The New York Times identified Hashem Safieddine as the target of the strike, with the latter outlet citing three Israeli officials saying he was attending a meeting with other senior Hezbollah leaders in an underground bunker.
It was unclear if Safieddine was harmed in the strike.
The IDF said Friday morning that the airstrike in Beirut targeted Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters. The military did not disclose who was at the underground bunker.
There was no immediate reaction from Hezbollah.
As head of the executive council, Safieddine oversees Hezbollah’s political affairs. He also sits on the Jihad Council, which manages the group’s military operations.
Flames rise from Israeli airstrikes in Dahiyeh, Beirut, Lebanon, October 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Safieddine, whom the US State Department designated as a terrorist in 2017, is a cousin of Nasrallah and like him is a cleric who wears the black turban denoting ostensible descent from Islam’s Prophet Mohammed. Safieddine’s family ties and physical resemblance to Nasrallah, as well as his religious status as a descendant of Mohammed, would all count in his favor to succeed the slain arch-terrorist.
He was reportedly targeted amid renewed air raids in Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh after Israel ordered people to leave their homes in parts of the district.
“Israel struck the southern suburbs 11 consecutive times,” a source close to Hezbollah said on condition of anonymity.
AFP correspondents in the capital and beyond heard loud bangs that made car alarms go off and buildings shake. About an hour later, AFP journalists heard several explosions coming from the direction of the southern suburbs after the IDF ordered residents of the Hadath neighborhood to evacuate.
AFP footage showed giant balls of flame rising from the targeted site with thick smoke billowing and flares shooting out.
Lebanon’s official National News Agency (NNA) said “more than 10 consecutive strikes have been recorded so far, in one of the strongest raids on the southern suburbs of Beirut since the start of the Israeli war on Lebanon.”
The strikes echoed to mountain regions outside Beirut, the NNA said.
Earlier Thursday, IDF Arabic-language spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee had issued an “urgent warning” for residents of the south Beirut area of Burj al-Barajneh to evacuate along with maps of the area. He later issued the evacuation order for Hadath.
“You are located near facilities and interests belonging to Hezbollah, and the IDF will work against them in the near future,” he said in a statement on X.
Flames and smoke rise from a building that was hit by an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, as Rafik Hariri International airport is seen in the background, in Beirut, Lebanon, October 4, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Earlier in the evening, a source close to Hezbollah said another Israeli strike had targeted a warehouse next to Beirut airport, which borders Dahiyeh.
“An Israeli airstrike targeted a warehouse adjacent to the airport,” the source told AFP, requesting anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. It was unclear what the warehouse contained.
And early Friday, the IDF said it had intercepted “a hostile aircraft” that set off alarms in the Beit She’an valley in northeast Israel.
According to the IDF, the aircraft had entered the territory from “the east” — a term the army has previously used to refer to attacks by Iraq-based militias which, like Hezbollah, belong to the “Axis of Resistance” network of Iran’s regional proxies.
The strike said to target Safieddine came as the army broadened its ground operation in south Lebanon on Thursday and also conducted waves of airstrikes at Hezbollah targets, including eliminating a top commander responsible for killing 12 children in a rocket strike on Israel earlier in the year.
The Iran-backed group responded by firing more than 200 rockets into northern Israel, keeping residents near bomb shelters.
Israel has in the past two weeks stepped up its attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Amid the escalation, Israel has all but decimated the terror group’s top command in a series of massive airstrikes on Beirut and southern Lebanon.
The escalation followed Israel’s decision last month to make the return home of northern residents an official war aim.
Troops of the Etzioni Brigade are seen operating in southern Lebanon, in a handout image published October 3, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s onslaught on October 7, out of fear Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack.
The onslaught saw thousands of Hamas-led terrorists storm southern Israel to kill nearly 1,200 people and take 251 hostages, sparking the war in Gaza.
Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
Since Israel escalated its airstrikes on the Hezbollah terror group on Monday, more than 630 people have been killed in Lebanon, according to the country’s health ministry.
At least a quarter of those killed have been women and children, according to Lebanese health officials. More than 2,000 were wounded. Israel has said that many Hezbollah operatives are among the dead.
The IDF has announced the deaths of nine soldiers in the ground offensive against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The military has described the operations as “limited, localized and targeted raids,” with the goal of demolishing Hezbollah’s infrastructure in the border area. Officials have said that the military intends for the operations to end as quickly as possible.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Golani Brigade seizes weapons, eliminate Hezbollah terrorists in Lebanon ground op.
The IDF stated that these soldiers destroyed weapons and terrorist infrastructure and eliminated terrorists both in combat and with assistance from the Israel Air Force.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 4, 2024 00:20
Combat teams from the Golani Brigade, under the command of Division 36, engaged in the ongoing ground operations in southern Lebanon over the past day, the military said on Thursday.
The IDF stated that these soldiers destroyed weapons and terrorist infrastructure and eliminated terrorists both in combat and with assistance from the Israel Air Force (IAF).
In one such joint operation that involved the Golani Brigade and the IAF, the soldiers targeted a military structure housing Hezbollah commanders, including the local commander, the engineering forces commander, and the commander charged with firing rockets. As a result, the Hezbollah terrorists were eliminated, the IDF said.
Additionally, in another strike, the soldiers detected suspicious movements within a military structure. As such, they detected aircraft, and not long after, the structure was attacked, and the terrorists within were neutralized.
In another raid, IDF soldiers located and seized weapons and other terrorist infrastructure in southern Lebanon, including firearms and surveillance equipment, the military noted in their report.
END
Israel strikes Hezbollah terrorists occupying evacuated Lebanese Christian village
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 4, 2024 10:44
Hezbollah terrorists have started using an evacuated Christian-Maronite village in southern Lebanon to launch attacks on Israel, prompting Israel to conduct its first-ever drone strike on the Hezbollah-controlled village, according to Lebanese media reports cited by Army Radio.
END
ISRAEL/LEBANON.HEZBOLLAH
Lebanon Claims Nasrallah Agreed To Temporary Ceasefire Just Before Assassination
Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 06:50 PM
In hugely surprising remarks given on American television this week, Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib has stated that Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah issued his agreement to a US and French-proposed 21-day ceasefire with Israel just before Israel killed him by targeting a secretive meeting in south Beirut last Friday.
Habib revealed the agreement in a PBS interview. He told PBS/CNN host Christiane Amanpour that “They told us that Mr. Netanyahu agreed on this, and so we also got the agreement of Hezbollah on that. And, you know what happened since then.”
An incredulous-looking Amanpour asked: “are you saying that Hassan Nasrallah had agreed to a ceasefire just moments before he was assassinated?”
“He agreed, he agreed–yes, yes. We agreed completely.”
The top Lebanese diplomat then followed with:
“The Lebanese House Speaker, Mr Nabih Berri, consulted with Hezbollah and we informed the Americans and the French about the agreement. They told us that [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu also agreed to the statement issued by both presidents.”
This is all in reference to a Sept.25th joint statement by the US, France, the European Union, Saudi Arabia and other nations urging an immediate 21-day ceasefire during which a more permanent diplomatic solution would be worked out. CNN writes of the interview:
White House senior adviser Amos Hochstein was then set to go to Lebanon to negotiate the ceasefire, Habib continued.
“They told us that Mr. Netanyahu agreed on this and so we also got the agreement of Hezbollah on that and you know what happened since then,” the foreign minister added.
If the Lebanese government account is true, this would have huge implications. However, no specific further evidence that Nasrallah agreed to ceasefire has yet emerged. Reuters’ top foreign correspondent, Idrees Ali, has called the revelation “Pretty stunning.”
Further reporting from CNN could point to the accuracy of FM Habib’s statements:
A Western source familiar with the negotiations also said Hezbollah had agreed to the temporary truce shortly before the US released the proposal last week. The source didn’t say whether the decision had come directly from Nasrallah, but said that for the movement to agree, they would have needed his approval. A second source familiar with the talks agreed that the US was aware that Hezbollah was agreeing to the ceasefire.
But on an official level, the White House is denying all of this. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller didn’t rule it out entirely, but said that the Hezbollah chief agreeing to a deal is “not something we have heard before. If true, [it] was never communicated to us.”
“I can’t speak to whether he ever agreed to it and told somebody inside Lebanon. Obviously, that could be something that happened that we wouldn’t be aware of. I can tell you that, if that’s true, it was never communicated to us in any way shape or form,” Miller said in a Thursday press briefing.
Critics of Israel have accused PM Netanyahu of deliberately sabotaging efforts at peace in his drive to decimate Hamas, Hezbollah, and ultimately to weaken archnemesis Iran – all while prolonging his power and rule at home.
END
Israel/Hezbollah
IAF strikes in Marj Ayoun in southern Lebanon – report
By AMIR BOHBOTOCTOBER 4, 2024 12:09
The Israel Air Force allegedly attacked Marj Ayoun in southern Lebanon, according to local media reports.
The reports claimed that individuals were consequently killed, with others wounded.
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Defense Minister Gallant: Israel has ‘more surprises in store’ for Hezbollah
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meets with IDF officers at the 36th Division’s headquarters in northern Israel, October 4, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel has “more surprises in store” for Hezbollah, as ground operations continue in southern Lebanon.
“Hezbollah is receiving very severe blows, one after the other. We eliminated [Hezbollah chief Hassan] Nasrallah and we have more surprises in store, some of which have already been carried out and some of which will be carried out,” he says during a visit to the 36th Division’s headquarters in northern Israel. The division’s troops are operating in southern Lebanon.
“[Hezbollah’s] missile and rocket division suffered a very heavy blow. A significant part was destroyed as a result of a high-quality and precise operation. Command and control headquarters, communications, the entire leadership of [the elite Radwan Force], and in fact the entire second and third tiers of command below Nasrallah were eliminated,” he continues.
Gallant adds that the IDF is “carrying out an operation today in several villages, and this process will continue wherever necessary to destroy all the infrastructure from which Hezbollah planned to carry out attacks.”
END
Israel says commander of Hezbollah communications division killed in strike
The commander of Hezbollah’s communications division was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Beirut yesterday, the military announces.
According to the IDF, Muhammad Rashid Sakafi headed Hezbollah’s communications since 2000 and was considered close to the terror group’s leadership.
“Sakafi invested significant efforts to develop communication capabilities between all of Hezbollah’s units in all periods of operation, to maintain the flow of information throughout the terrorist organization,” the military adds.
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
IDF and Shin Bet says Tulkarem airstrike targeted head of local Hamas terror network
The head of a Hamas terror network in Tulkarem, along with several other operatives, were killed in an Israeli airstrike in the West Bank this evening, the IDF and Shin Bet say.
According to the military, the airstrike carried out by a fighter jet in Tulkarem targeted Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, a top Hamas commander in Tulkarem who was planning a terror attack “in the immediate time frame.”
Oufi planned and led an attempted car bombing attack near the settlement of Ateret last month, the IDF says.
He was also involved in providing weapons to other terror operatives who carried out numerous attacks in the West Bank and in Israel recently, including those that led to the injury of Israeli civilians, according to the military.
The IDF and Shin Bet add that he “worked to establish terrorist networks on behalf of Hamas and assisted terror operatives in the area to carry out significant shooting and explosive attacks.”
“[He] intended to carry out an attack in the immediate time frame,” and therefore the strike was carried out, the IDF says.
Several more terror operatives in the same Hamas network were killed in the strike, according to the IDF. The Palestinian Authority health ministry says that at least 18 people were killed.
The IDF has carried out dozens of airstrikes in the West Bank in the past year, but mostly with drones and helicopters, rarely with fighter jets.
END
Israel/west bank
At least 18 said killed in Tulkarem airstrike on head of local Hamas terror network
IDF says several other operatives also killed in rare strike by fighter jet that’s one of the deadliest in West Bank in years; Hamas decries ‘cruel attack,’ Fatah mourns ‘martyrs’
By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 2:06 am
Palestinians are seen at the site of an airstrike in the northern West Bank city of Tulkarem on October 3, 2024. The IDF and Shin Bet later said the strike, which was carried out using a fighter jet, targeted the head of a local Hamas terror network. (Twitter screenshot, used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)
An Israeli fighter jet carried out a rare attack in Tulkarem late Thursday, with the Palestinian Authority’s health ministry reporting at least 18 fatalities in one of the deadliest airstrikes in the West Bank in recent memory.
A joint statement from the Israel Defense Forces and Shin Bet said the strike targeted Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi, a top Hamas commander in Tulkarem, along with several other operatives. According to the military, Oufi was planning a terror attack “in the immediate time frame.”
The statement said Oufi planned and led an attempted car bombing attack near the settlement of Ateret last month.
He was also involved in providing weapons to other terror operatives who carried out numerous attacks in the West Bank and in Israel recently, including those that led to the injury of Israeli civilians, according to the military.
The IDF and Shin Bet added that he “worked to establish terrorist networks on behalf of Hamas and assisted terror operatives in the area to carry out significant shooting and explosive attacks.”
“[He] intended to carry out an attack in the immediate time frame,” and therefore the strike was carried out, the IDF said.
The IDF has carried out dozens of airstrikes in the West Bank in the past year, but mostly with drones and helicopters, rarely with fighter jets.
In addition to the 18 Palestinians killed, numerous other people were reportedly wounded in Thursday’s strike, which a source within the Palestinian security services told AFP was the deadliest in the West Bank since 2000.
Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s spokesman called for Israel to be held accountable for the “heinous crime,” in a statement that described the attack as a “massacre.”
Hamas condemned Israel over the “cruel attack” and warned it would prove to be a “dangerous escalation.” Other Palestinian factions also denounced Israel, with Abbas’s Fatah movement calling for demonstrations on Friday to honor the “heroic martyrs” of Tulkarem.
Tulkarem has been a focus of recent Israeli counter-terrorism operations in West Bank towns and refugee camps, as part of intensified near-daily military raids aimed at dismantling Palestinian terror groups following Hamas’s October 7 attack from Gaza.
https://x.com/i/status/1841925806291091903
Illustrative: Smoke from a tear gas canister billows as Israeli army soldiers are positioned at the entrance of Tulkarem during an operation in the northern West Bank on September 12, 2024 (Zain Jaafar/AFP)
Since October 7, troops have arrested some 5,250 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 2,050 affiliated with Hamas.
According to the Palestinian Authority health ministry, more than 716 West Bank Palestinians have been killed in that time. The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops or terrorists carrying out attacks.
During the same period, 40 people, including Israeli security personnel, have been killed in terror attacks in Israel and the West Bank. Another six members of the security forces were killed in clashes with terror operatives in the West Bank.
END
ISRAEL/IRAQ
this will escalate the situation quite badly. Expect Israel to hit Iran’s oil fields and the USA to hit Iranian backed Iraqi troops
(zerohedge0
War Expands: Two Israeli Troops Killed, 24 Wounded In Drone Attack From Iraq
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 01:20 PM
In a massive escalation and unprecedented first since the Gaza War began on Oct.7 of last year, a drone attack launched from Iraq has scored a direct hit on an Israeli base on the northern Golan Heights region.
Initial reports suggest a mass casualty event: Two Israeli soldiers were killed and 24 were wounded in a drone attack from Iraq, the IDF has announced. The attack appears to have occurred Thursday morning, according to the Israeli statement, but is only being disclosed 24 hours later.
The slain soldiers have been identified as: Sgt. Daniel Aviv Haim Sofer, 19, a signals officer cadet in the Golani Brigade’s 13th Battalion, from Ashkelon; andCpl. Tal Dror, 19, an IT specialist with the Golani Brigade’s 13th Battalion, from Jerusalem.
An IDF military investigation found that two explosive-laden drones were launched from Iraq by pro-Iran paramilitary groups. The US and Israel believe these groups are controlled from Tehran, as well as pro-Iranian political leaders in Baghdad and influential Shia clerics.
One of the drones was shot down by Israeli air defense missiles, but the other one made it through and struck the base.
“In addition to the two slain soldiers, another 24 were wounded in the attack, including two seriously, one moderately, and 21 lightly,” Israeli media documents based on the military statement. A Friday statement from Iraqi paramilitaries has taken responsibility and warned of more to come:
The umbrella group of Iran-aligned armed forces in Iraq says it launched projectiles against three targets in occupied Golan and Tiberias in Israel.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq added in a statement that its forces used drones at the targets, with the attacks taking place at dawn on Friday. It promised to continue “operations to pound the enemy’s strongholds at an escalating pace.”
This comes just as Israel and the US are mulling a response to Iran’s Oct.1 major ballistic missile attack. It will likely serve to nudge the Netanyahu government in the direction of a robust direct response. Israel might also target Iran-backed Iraqi militia positions in side Iraq as a result.
This certainly isn’t the first time in recent weeks and months projectiles were launched from Iraq, however, those prior instances proved ineffective as drones and missiles either get shot down or land in open desert areas. On Friday Israeli Army Radio is saying more rocket launches have been detected targeting towns in the southern Golan.
New signs of things spiraling toward bigger regional war as Israel contemplates hitting back at Iran:
Also on Friday, there appear to be new air raids on Houthi positions in Yemen by US and British jets, and this new campaign possibly includes Israeli aircraft as well. Yemen’s Houthi Al Masirah TV is reporting that US and British air attacks are hitting Hodeidah Airport, Sanaa and Dhamar City.
* * *
More breaking developments via Al Jazeera [emphasis ZH]:
- The Israeli military continues to pound areas across Lebanon, especially Beirut, in addition to launching deadly strikes on the Gaza Strip.
- Four medics were killed in some of the latest attacks in Lebanon, while two bodies were recovered from Gaza’s southern Khan Younis.
- Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi invited regional governments to display support for Lebanon after arriving in Beirut. He is heading to Syria next.
- Al Jazeera condemned the assault by a member of the Palestinian Authority’s security on its correspondent, Laith Jaar, while covering the Israeli bombing of Tulkarem refugee camp in the occupied West Bank.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said any strike at Israel “is a service” to the whole region and the world.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) received a first shipment of medical aid to Lebanon, with more expected today and tomorrow.
END
USA/HOUTHIS/ISRAEL
US confirms strikes on Yemen’s Sanaa and Hodeidah
Al Masirah TV reported that US and British forces carried out the strikes, but a British government source said Britain was not involved.
By REUTERSOCTOBER 4, 2024 17:46Updated: OCTOBER 4, 2024 21:38
Airstrikes were launched on Friday at several parts of Yemen, including its capital, Sanaa, and Hodeidah airport, Al Masirah TV, the main television news outlet run by the Houthi movement controlling much of Yemen, and residents said.
Strikes also targeted the south of Dhamar city and the southeast of al-Bayda province, the channel added.
A US official told Reuters the US military carried out multiple strikes against targets linked to Houthi terrorists in Yemen.
The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, declined to comment on further details, and the US military’s Central Command could not be reached for comment.
Residents said that the attack on al-Bayda province targeted several Houthi military outposts.
Al Masirah TV reported that the strikes had been carried out by the United States and British forces, but a British government source said Britain was not involved.
Iran-aligned Houthi terrorists have launched attacks on international shipping near Yemen since last November in solidarity with Palestinians in Israel’s war with Hamas.
Regional implications
The attacks have drawn US and British retaliatory strikes and disrupted global trade as ship owners reroute vessels away from the Red Sea and Suez Canal to sail the longer route around the southern tip of Africa.
Following the airstrikes, a Houthi spokesman called the attack “a desperate attempt,” adding that “Yemen will not be deterred by these attacks and will continue its steadfastness in confronting the enemies.”
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Ukrainian Lines Collapsing In East With World’s Attention On Middle East War
Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 06:22 PM
Moscow’s wide-reaching offensive in eastern Ukraine has continued making steady gains, as looming major war between Israel and Iran has largely taken over the news cycle and daily headlines.
Currently Russian forces have advanced to merely within a few a few kilometers of Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian logistical hub in the region. As we’ve highlighted before, the collapse of Pokrovsk will likely portend a Russian takeover of the whole of Donetsk.
On Wednesday the Ukrainian army announced that it has fully withdrawn from the eastern town of Vuhledar, describing that it abandoned the area after being almost fully encircled, and coming under heavy Russian artillery bombardment.
“The High Command gave permission for a maneuver to withdraw units from Vuhledar in order to save personnel and military equipment and take up a position for further operations,” a Ukrainian unit deployed there said in a Telegram post.
It cited specifically the “threat of encirclement” and heavy troop losses, and there are reports that Russian forces had already taken control of Vuhleda by the time the Ukrainian announcement was made.
Vuhleda is a significant achievement, and suggests Russia forces will continue to plow through Ukrainian defenses, given it was dubbed a “fortress” city given its long having heavily-fortified surroundings and being in an upland position.
Even The Daily Beast recently underscored that while President Zelensky was pitching his ‘victory plan’ in Washington, his forces were suffering loss after loss:
On a visit to the U.S. last week, Volodymyr Zelensky gave the hard sell to his “Victory Plan” for Ukraine. In meetings with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, and an awkward encounter with former President Donald Trump, the Ukrainian leader insisted his country could still–with Western help–emerge victorious in its long-running war with Russia.
…After two and a half years of war, soldiers are tired. The same soldiers who gave Vladimir Putin’s forces a bloody nose after the February 2022 invasion, and pushed the invaders from Kyiv and Kharkiv, say they are under-equipped and complain that they are being ordered to carry out impossible missions as Kyiv struggles to supply the military with new recruits and acquire more Western weapons to ward off Russian advances.
The same report has said that in some instances entire battalions are refusing orders from command centers as they see them as “suicide missions”.
“With little training and battleground conditions far removed from what they signed up for at the beginning of the war, the men are sent on what they describe as suicide missions: They are told to get behind enemy lines to launch attacks, yet are not given the weaponry to do so successfully,” Daily Beast wrote.
As for Vuhledar, Russia’s defense ministry (MoD) and state media are in a celebratory mood. “As a result of conclusive operations by the units of the ‘East’ group of forces, the town of Ugledar in the DPR has been liberated,” the miliary announced Thursday.
US state-funded Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has confirmed the below video:
Widely circulating images and footage show Russian troops raising a flag over Vuhledar’s central administrative building. Over the past two-and-half years, Russian forces had tried to take the town on a number of occasions, but were pushed back, until this week.
end
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXZANDER
CRISPR-Cas9 mRNA Gene Editing Technology, mRNA technology gene-based vaccines, siRNA (small interfering RNA); further discussion by Dr. Paul Elias Alexander & Mayor Deb Rogers (Pennsylvania/New York)
Our world is being transformed by this technology & not underpinned by the proper studies to prove concept, to exclude harms, any ethical debate etc.; just money-making malevolence, $, power, control
| Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 4 |
END
SLAY NEWS
| FDA/DOD Whistleblower Drops Bombshell: Government Countermeasures Killed More People than CovidA former top official with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and the Department of Defense (DOD) has come forward with bombshell whistleblower allegations about the true cause of deaths during and after the “pandemic.”READ MORE |
| Doctors Link Pfizer mRNA ‘Vaccine’ to Deadly Autoimmune DiseasesA group of medical doctors has uncovered evidence linking Pfizer’s Covid mRNA “vaccine” to a surge in deadly autoimmune diseases.READ MORE |
| Dozens of Lawmakers Demand Answers from AG Garland as Thousands of Non-Citizens Found on Voter RollsThe Biden-Harris administration’s Attorney General Merrick Garland has come under fire from dozens of lawmakers in the U.S. House and Senate.READ MORE |
| Nikki Haley Responds to Tim Walz’s Debate Comments: ‘Sends Chill Up Your Spine’Former Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley has responded to the remarks made by Democrat vice presidential nominee Tim Walz during his Tuesday debate with GOP rival JD Vance.READ MORE |
| Trump Doubles Down on Campaign to Induct MLB Legend Pete Rose into Hall of FamePresident Donald Trump is doubling down on his campaign to ensure baseball legend Pete Rose is accepted into the Hall of Fame. READ MORE |
| Karine Jean-Pierre Crumbles over ICE Statistics Exposing Violent Criminal Illegal Aliens: ‘Falsely Misrepresented’A question about immigration statistics exposing violent criminal illegal alien numbers sent White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre scrambling for a response as she sought to downplay and discredit the data.READ MORE |
| Taylor Swift Lost 2 Million Spotify Listeners since Endorsing Kamala HarrisBillionaire pop star Taylor Swift has lost a whopping two million of her monthly listeners since she announced her endorsement of Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris for the critical 2024 election.READ MORE |
| Over 200 Retired Admirals and Generals Sign Letter Endorsing Trump: America’s ‘Future Is at Stake’President Donald Trump received the endorsement of over 200 retired admirals and generals for his re-election campaign.READ MORE |
| Bank of America Customers’ Balances Wiped to Zero amid Reports of Widespread OutagesCustomers with Bank of America are sounding the alarm after realizing the balances on their accounts have been wiped to zero.READ MORE |
| JD Vance Follows Up on Debate by Sharing Supporting Evidence on XDuring Tuesday night’s vice presidential debate, Republican nominee JD Vance was hit with phony “fact-checks” from the left-wing CBS News moderators.READ MORE |
| Swing State Voters Praise Vance after Debate, Blast ‘Phony’ & ‘Nervous’ WalzVoters in the swing state of Michigan have been responding to Tuesday’s vice presidential debate between Republican JD Vance and Democrat Tim Walz.READ MORE |
| Top Financial Expert Charles Nenner Warns ‘End of American Empire’ Is Imminent, Urges Investors to ‘Get Out of Stocks, Buy Gold’World-renowned financial expert Charles Nenner is warning that the “end of the American empire” is imminent amid escalating global conflicts.READ MORE |
| George Soros’ Media Matters Moves to Buy Alex Jones’ InfoWars amid Forced Sell-OffThe George Soros-funded leftist propaganda outlet Media Matters is reportedly moving to buy Alex Jones’s InfoWars.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| Scientists Find Batches of Covid Shots Designed to Depopulate Specific Population Groups – EVOLREAD MORE… |
| LATEST NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICTS
| Longshoremen union strike is OVERThe Longshoremen union strike is now over after a tentative agreement was made on wages. They could be striking again in January since they’ve only extended their current contract until mid January: CNBC – A major union for U.S. dockworkers and the United States Maritime Alliance agreed on Thursday to a tentative deal on wages and have extended their existing …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Turns out Trump was right! – Georgia Gov admits he couldn’t get the president on the phone [VIDEO]The other day President Trump said that the governor of Georgia was having trouble getting Joe Biden on the phone. The media went into quick action to ‘fact-check’ him: NBC NEWS – Former President Donald Trump falsely claimed that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp hasn’t been able to reach President Joe Biden to discuss Hurricane Helene’s impacts on his state. “He …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Former Colorado county clerk who allowed Mike Lindell associate to access election data just sentenced to 9 YEARSA former Colorado county clerk, who allowed an associate of Mike Lindell to access election data in Mesa County to prove election fraud, was just sentenced to 9 years in prison. Tina Peters lied about the associate of Lindell, claiming he was an employee when he was not. She gave him a security card so he could try and prove …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Gov DeSantis sending National and State Guard to critical ports, slams Joe & Kamala for allowing strike during natural disasterGovernor DeSantis announced this afternoon that he is sending both the National Guard and State Guard to critical ports to limit the disruption of these ports on the supply chain. DeSantis said he’s sending them not only to maintain order at these ports, but to resume operations where possible. He also blasted Joe & Kamala for allowing this strike to …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Secy Mayorkas ATTACKS Inspector General after scathing report on ‘catch and release’ of illegals into USYesterday the Inspector General’s office came out with a scathing report on Joe and Kamala’s catch and release program that’s allowed at least ten million illegals to be released into the country. Today DHS Secretary Mayorkas attacked the Inspector General’s office and claimed the report wasn’t accurate: “The Inspector General’s report contains inaccurate statements, lacks important context, and is misleading …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.1032 DOWN 0.0003
USA/ YEN 146.54 DOWN 0.290 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS JULY 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES NOW RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3168 UP .0039
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3551 UP 0.0003 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 3 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED
Hang Seng CLOSED
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .68%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED
/SHANGHAI CLOSED
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .68%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 83.56POINTS OR 0.22%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2661.50
silver:$32.14
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 101.63 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
FRIDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.733% UP 2 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.904% up 8 AND 1/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.966 DOWN 1 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.513 UP 4 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.214 UP 8 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR FRIDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0974 DOWN .0062 OR 62 basis points
USA/Japan: 148.83 UP 1.99 OR YEN IS DOWN 199 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.1300 UP 12 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0028 OR 28 BASIS pts to 1.3576
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED XXXX (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.0991)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.25 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//ON DEATH WATCH
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.904
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 13 in basis points from THURSDAY at 3.988% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.265 UP 9 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.930 UP 22 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2648.50
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.19
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 1.80 PTS OR 0.02%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 105,52 OR 0.55%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 63,58 PTS OR 0.55%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 41.20 OR 0.35%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 424.09 OR 1.28%
WTI Oil price 74.49 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 78.17 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 94.99 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 24/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1480 UP 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1300 UP 12 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.227 UP 10 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.044 UP 15
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.09745 DOWN 0.0062 OR 62 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3121 DOWN 0.0008 OR 8 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.130 UP 12 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.904
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 148.83 UP 1.99 BASIS PTS//
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3576 UP 0.0028 CDN dollar DOWN 28 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 74.49
Brent OIL: 78.11
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 13 BASIS pts to 3.988
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 4.265%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 23 PTS AT 3.935
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.229 UP 10 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.044 UP 16 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.25 UP 50 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.25 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 94.99 UP 0 AND 26/100 roubles
GOLD 2,650.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 32.20 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 341.16 PTS OR 0.81%
NASDAQ UP 241.67 PTS OR 0.22%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.59 DOWN .190 PTS OR 9..27%
GLD: $245.00 DOWN .49OR 0.20%
SLV/ $29.36 UP 0.13 OR 0.44%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:
‘Good’ News Sparks Bond Bloodbath; Dollar & Oil Soar On Week
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Is good news, good news? Capping off a week of positive macro surprises, payrolls slipped into the goldilocks dress and spoiled the dovish party for many…
US Macro is at its highest since April, having flipped positive this week…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations have plunged (hawkishly)…
Source: Bloomberg
… and Treasury yields have exploded higher (2Y +22bps today, 30Y +9bps). 2Y yields are up over 36bps on the week as the curve flattened dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
…with 10Y Yield pushing back towards 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
…and the yield curve (2s10s) bear-flattened dramatically this week, almost back to inverted…
Source: Bloomberg
Bond yields caught up to stocks today…
Source: Bloomberg
The hawkishness in STIRs and higher rates did not stymie stocks today as they squeezed up to unchanged (with Small Caps ripping today the most but the worst on the week)…
The dollar surged higher today, to its highest close since mid-August. The dollar was up all five days in a row this week for its best week since Sept 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was down on the week, but found support at $60k…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold ended the week marginally lower…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude oil prices exploded higher this week – the best week since Oct 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, USA sovereign risk refuses to drop… despite ‘Goldilocks’…
Source: Bloomberg
Something’s going on under the hood.
MORNING TRADING/NON FARM PAYROLLS
Job gains were mostly from migrants; i.e. low paying jobs
Blowout Payrolls: Sept 254K Jobs Soar Above Highest Estimate, Unemployment Rate Drops And Wages Spike
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 08:48 AM
It turns out that Powell’s “emergency” 50bps rate cut was – drumroll – another major policy mistake by the Fed.
Moments ago, the BLS reported that at a time when prevailing consensus was for jobs to continue their recent downward slide sparked by the near-record annual jobs revision and several months of downbeat jobs reports, in September the US unexpectedly added a whopping 254K jobs, the biggest monthly increase since March…
… and above the highest estimate (which as noted last night was from Jefferies at 220K). In fact, the number was a 4-sigma beat to the median estimate!
There’s more: unlike previous months where we saw repeat downward job revisions, the BLS said that both prior months were revised up, to wit: the change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 55,000, from +89,000 to +144,000, and the change for August was revised up by 17,000, from +142,000 to +159,000. With these revisions, employment in July and August combined is 72,000 higher than previously reported.
Some context: as UBS notes, the moving six-month average on nonfarm payrolls is 167k. The estimate is that 150k is about consistent with a return of the economy to trend growth. Which means that inflation is about to come back with a vengeance, just as the Fed launches its easing cycle.
Remarkably, while payrolls jumped by the most in half a year, the number of employed people also surged, rising by a whopping 430K, also the biggest one-month jump since March.
It wasn’t just the payrolls, however, which came in far stronger than estimates: the unemployment rate also came in stronger than expected, and thanks to the jump in employed workers coupled with the decline in unemployed workers (from 7.115MM to 6.834MM), it dropped from 4.2% to 4.1% (and down from 4.3% two months ago which spared the entire recession panic).
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for adult men (3.7 percent) decreased in September. The jobless rates for adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (14.3 percent), Whites (3.6 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (4.1 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
And here is the rub, because in a vacuum the super strong jobs numbers would have been fantastic, the only issue is that the September blowout comes as the Fed launches an easing cycle and as wages are once again rising as we have warned for the past 3 months. Indeed, in September, the average hourly earnings rose 0.4% sequentially, beating the estimate of 0.3%, while on an annual basis, wage growth was 4.0%, up from an upward revised 3.9% and beating the 3.8% estimate.
One note here: the average workweek for all employees edged down by 0.1 hour to 34.2 hours in September, which means the hourly earnings increase is not “pure” but rather a function of denominator adjustments. In manufacturing, the average workweek was unchanged at 40.0 hours, and overtime edged down by 0.1 hour to 2.9 hours. The average workweek for production and nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls remained at 33.7 hours.
end
Payrolls Reaction – Wow!!!!!
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 09:40 AM
Authored by Peter Tchir via Academy Securities,
Trying to break this report down on live TV was quite easy.
Everything pointed to strength.
Total jobs great!
The beat was entirely in the private sector, which is where we want to see the jobs created.
UPWARD revisions.
A substantial positive revision is good.
I think it helps confirm my view that the BLS has adjusted their models and aren’t consistently overstating jobs like they were.
I continue to believe seasonal adjustments are off.
Overstating winter jobs and understating summer jobs. This report seems consistent with that.
Upward pressure on wages, and an unemployment number of 4.052% (almost got rounded down to 4%) will give the fed some pause.
Bottom line
Higher yields.
Look for 10s to breach 4% as we head into auctions.
Higher for longer.
Fed cuts should be slower and I continue to think (and the data supports it) that the current neutral rate is well above 3% (economy chugging along on 5% yields for over a year)
I’d fade the initial joy in equity land.
Developing
END
Today’s huge rise in jobs was a record surge in government workers.. Thus the malaise in the job market is still present.
(zerohedge)
Behind Today’s Stunning Jobs Report: A Record Surge In Government Workers
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 12:40 PM
At first glance today’s jobs report was indeed impressive: the surge in jobs according to both the household and establishment surveys indicated a strong rebound from recent monthly weakness…
… which coupled with the drop in unemployment rate, and upward historical revisions suggested that much of the recent labor market weakness may have been transitory. The one fly in the ointment was the jump in wage growth which strongly hinted that inflation is also back, just as we have been warning for months (especially now that oil is once again surging) and we will cross that bridge eventually, but not yet.
Instead for now let’s focus on the parts of the jobs report which the BLS has traditionally used to mask headline weakness, such as part-time workers used to mask weakness in full-time jobs, or foreign-born workers surging at the expense of native-born. Well, this month there was little of that as well, and in fact, part-time workers dropped modestly as full-time workers rose…
… while native-born workers actually rebounded from a five year low as foreign-born workers dropped from an all-time high
And yet, it didn’t take long to find what the BLS did this time to make the jobs appear much stronger than expected, a political imperative for the highly politicized agency tasked with making the Kamala/Biden economy appear stronger than it was exactly one month ahead of the election.
The answer, ironically, was in the number of government workers, which exploded higher, and were not only instrumental in pushing the Household Survey print much higher, but meant the difference between a 4.1% and 4.5% unemployment rate.
Here is what happened.
In September, the number of government workers as tracked by the Household Survey soared by 785K, from 21.421 million to 22.216 million, both seasonally adjusted (source: Table A8 from the jobs report). This was the biggest monthly surge in government workers on record (excluding the outlier print in June 2020 which was a reversal of the record plunge from the Covid collapse months before).
While government workers soared by the most on record, private workers rose by just 133K, a far more believable number, and one which however would indicate that the recent labor market malaise continues.
What is odd is that while September traditionally sees a huge jump in not seasonally adjusted government workers (as teachers go back to school), the BLS has traditionally smoothed over this jump using seasonal adjustments.
Only not this time, because as the next chart shows, while historically the September adjusted number has been relatively tame, regardless of how large or small the unadjusted number was, this time something changed as the unadjusted number of government workers absolutely exploded by a record 1.322 million leading to a record September increase in adjusted government workers.
Curiously, it wasn’t just the Household survey that tracked an unprecedented increase in government workers: if one takes the Establishment survey unadjusted print (source Table B1 from the jobs report), one sees the exact same thing. Here, the number of not seasonally adjusted government workers soared by 918K (from 22.541 million to 23.459 million), while the number of not seasonally adjusted private sector workers plunged by 458K!
Why does any of this matter? For several reasons.
As the recent near-record downward revision in employment demonstrated, when some 818K jobs were magically eliminated, economic reports from the Biden admin has become unreliable to the point where even Fed chair Powell was questioning the credibility of BLS data and lamented that had he known how bad the labor market was, he would have cut in July. Well, same thing now, only in the opposite direction (which is to be expected with the election in just one month). So is the BLS now openly political and seeking to game the data to show Biden in a favorable light? That’s a rhetorical question we leave to our readers.
And speaking of politicized government agencies, the BLS had a clear motive to add as many “government jobs” as it possibly could, not just to make the sequential increase in labor appear but to depress the unemployment rate further.
So to answer the question: why jam a record number of government workers in the September payrolls report? Two reasons: Unemployment rate drops to 4.1% instead of rising to 4.5%, assuring the Sahm Rule is indeed triggered and the US is officially in a recession, and also prevent the market from crashing. Both, one would say, pretty critical narrative pieces exactly one month before the election. As an aside, those wondering who is paying for all these government jobs, take one look at the US government debt which just soared to a record high, and that should answer all questions.
One final point: the BLS may have done everything it could to put lipstick on the jobs market (with data which will inevitably be revised lower after the election), but it forgot to change on data set: the number of people who need more than one job to make ends meet, just hit a new all time high as well.
AFTERNOON TRADING///
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US Port Workers Agree To End Strike After Accepting 62% Wage Increase
Thursday, Oct 03, 2024 – 07:22 PM
If you just bought 10 years worth of toilet paper, you may want to check if you still have the receipt.
Late on Thursday, 45,000 striking dockworkers at US East and Gulf coast ports agreed to return to work after port operators sweetened their contract offer, ending a three-day strike that threatened to disrupt the American economy.
The International Longshoremen’s Association and port operators, in a joint statement, said they had reached a tentative agreement on wages and union members would return to work. They said the agreement would extend the prior contract, which expired at the start of this week, through Jan. 15, 2025 while the two sides negotiate on other issues, including automation on the docks.
The breakthrough came after port employers offered a 62% increase in wages over six years, the WSJ reported citing people familiar with the matter. The new offer, up from an earlier proposed raise of 50%, came after the White House privately and publicly pressed the large shipping lines and cargo terminal operators who employ the longshore workers to make a new offer to the union.
The agreement ends a strike that had closed container ports from Maine to Texas and threatened to disrupt everything from the supply of bananas in supermarkets to the flow of cars through America’s factories, and cost the US economy billions each day in lost commerce.
The latest offer would raise the base hourly rate for ILA port workers to $63 from $39 over six years. One of the people said the offer is being made on the condition that dockworkers go back to work and agree to efficiency gains.
The offer is less than the union demand for an increase of 77% over the term of the contract but a far larger increase than most major labor contracts, including a contract reached last year covering the separate union representing West Coast longshore workers. Many U.S. dockworkers currently earn more than a $100,000 a year, with baseline hourly wages boosted by work rules and overtime requirements.
The strike came about five weeks from a presidential election where both main candidates are wooing working-class union voters. Both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have voiced support for the workers, stressing that the carriers are mostly foreign-owned.
Top White House aides have been in frequent contact with the employers, reiterating that Biden doesn’t plan to use his federal power to break the strike. “This is the first strike in 50 years—these people know how to get to yes,” Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said Thursday, speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One. “They just need to get to yes.”
The walkout had shut down some of the country’s main gateways for imports of food, vehicles, heavy machinery, construction materials, chemicals, furniture, clothes and toys. Many manufacturers and big retailers, with their busy fall shopping season just starting to kick in, said they could withstand a short strike because they brought in products earlier than usual this year and diverted other cargoes to West Coast ports. But executives said a walkout lasting a week or longer would push up shipping costs and might trigger product shortages.
The International Longshoremen’s Association said it had agreed to extend the contract until Jan. 15 and work will resume.
Container ports from Houston to Miami and up to Boston have been closed since the labor contract between the ILA and the US Maritime Alliance, which represents terminal operators and shipping lines, expired on Tuesday.
Dozens of ships carrying containers and autos have anchored off the coast of major trade hubs including New York, South Carolina and Virgina over the past few days.
It remains to be seen if other US labor union will also go on strike hoping to repeat the staggering wage gains that were just handed to the Longshoremen. If so, watch as the color drains out of Powell’s face as wage inflation hits double digits in the coming months.
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Spirit Shares Crash After WSJ Says Airline Exploring Bankruptcy Filing
by Tyler Durden
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 09:00 AM
Shares of Spirit Airlines crashed in premarket trading in New York after a Wall Street Journal report revealed that the struggling airline has been in discussions with bondholders about the possibility of filing for bankruptcy following the collapse of its merger with JetBlue Airways.
The WSJ report was published late Thursday evening.
Here’s more color:
The budget carrier has also been exploring restructuring its balance sheet through an out-of-court transaction, though recent talks have been more focused on reaching an agreement with bondholders and other creditors to support a chapter 11 filing, the people said. The timing of such a filing, should it happen, wouldn’t be imminent, they said.
Shares in the premarket are around $1.54, down a little more than 31%. Earlier shares tanked as much as 42%. These levels are a record low for Spirit in its 13 years of trading on the public markets.
The latest Bloomberg data shows 31.6 million shares are short, equivalent to about 29.25% of the float.
WSJ said Spirit is in dire financial straits:
Spirit has been struggling with losses and declining revenue as it aims to address coming maturities within its $3.3 billion debt load, including more than $1.1 billion of secured bonds that are due in less than a year. Spirit also faces a deadline from its credit-card processor to refinance or extend those notes by Oct. 21.
The potential bankruptcy filing comes after Spirit’s failed merger with JetBlue Airways earlier this year. Biden’s DoJ struck down the deal because it would have reduced competition.
In August, Spirit Chief Executive Ted Christie told analysts that the airline was speaking with bondholders to address the maturities: “Because those conversations are ongoing, we are not going to go into detail or take any questions on this topic or speculate on potential outcomes. Needless to say, it is a priority and we are focused on securing the best outcome for the business as quickly as possible.”
Whoops.
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The Reprehensible Audacity Of FEMA Being Broke
Friday, Oct 04, 2024 – 06:55 AM
Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance
Part of what I love about having this blog is that it is cathartic for me when I want to be heard, understood, or otherwise just bitch and moan about things in the world of finance, the economy, and politics that I find askew.
From the jump, one of the things I have written about is how dead wrong both sides of the political aisle have our fiscal and monetary policy. With monetary policy, both parties have quietly fallen in line under the mutated breed of Keynesian economics our Federal Reserve implements, which rests on the sole idea of printing money and praying that either hyperinflation doesn’t occur or the economy doesn’t collapse.
Republicans occasionally criticize the Federal Reserve and pepper in objections here and there about our abuse of the dollar, but when all is said and done, they fall in line behind monetary policy as it stands today. Democrats have gone full non sequitur and, through the miracle of faux-intellectual academic bullshit squared, have somehow convinced themselves that none of the basic rules of economics—such as debits and credits and supply and demand—exist anymore.
When it comes to fiscal policy, Democrats are the main offenders. Republicans have a longer track record of wanting to rein in spending and reduce the size of government, whereas Democrats are often pushing for larger government and more spending. There have been exceptions, like when Bill Clinton balanced the budget and when Donald Trump ran some of the largest deficits in the country’s history, but that’s the general gist of things.
No matter what lens you look at it through, the nation has racked up an accelerating tab of debt at a pace that is mind-boggling. For example, just over the last month, the United States added over $300 billion to our national debt, which is now fast approaching $36 trillion.We have consistently shown ourselves to be unable to balance the budget, and no matter how much we tax our citizens, we are always going to wind up spending more than we are bringing in. It’s the American way for everyday individuals at home with their personal savings and credit cards, just as it is the American way for those who run our Treasury.
It’s been a mainstay of this blog that I believe our spending addiction is going to end very poorly for the United States. And sadly, I’ve made some peace with it. I truly don’t believe there’s turning back from the dire situation we’re in now.
But let me clue you in on something I haven’t made peace with.
After the devastating effects of Hurricane Helene, FEMA has all of a sudden come out and said it doesn’t have enough funds to make it through hurricane season. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas warned this week that FEMA is running low on funds.
“We are meeting the immediate needs with the money that we have. We are expecting another hurricane hitting,” Mayorkas said. “FEMA does not have the funds to make it through the season.”
While Mayorkas didn’t specify the exact funding needed, his comments reflect growing concerns from President Biden and lawmakers that a supplemental spending bill may be necessary this fall to support recovery efforts.
I’ve spent the last four years watching as millions of people have crossed unchecked through our southern border and have been treated like royalty by the Biden administration while everyday citizens struggle with rising prices, crumbling infrastructure, and the negative effects of suffocating regulation.
I’ve also spent the last four years watching the United States dole out close to $50 billion in foreign aid, mainly to Ukraine to help it press on with a war that realistically it has little chance of winning, while shaking down waitstaff, Uber drivers and anybody using Venmo for purposes of more than $600 for tax receipts.
And in my short time in the world of finance, I’ve seen enough omnibus spending bills—with funds allocated for things like border security in Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Tunisia and Oman and family planning to halt population growth that “threatens biodiversity or endangered species”—to have developed a deep loathing for how our government and our Treasury manage finances.
So when sorry-ass Alejandro Mayorkas—who has sworn up and down for the last three years that there’s no crisis at the southern border while parts of the country have been overrun and overwhelmed by unchecked, undocumented, and sometimes criminal migrants—takes to publicly decrying that FEMA is out of money in the midst of one of the largest domestic disasters in the country’s history, it’s absolutely revolting to watch.
Not only is it grotesque because of how we have squandered away hundreds of billions of dollars on things that everyday U.S. citizens are not going to see an impact from, but it’s even worse when examined under the umbrella of how we run monetary policy in this country.
There once was a day when, if you needed to fund government entities, you actually had to have the revenue coming in from taxpayers because we couldn’t just print dollars ad infinitum anytime we wanted. Those were the days of sound money, and they are long gone.
What FEMA being broke today means not just that we have pissed away the money that we could have allocated for it to non-U.S. citizens — it’s far more insulting than that. It means that in a day and age where we can theoretically print endless fiat dollars and have an ‘infinite amount of cash’—an idea that I think is completely batshit insane, but our Fed governors don’t—that we still have not stocked the coffers of our domestic agencies with the bare minimum necessary for them to help the American people when they need to.
In other words, if the money is all fake, and we can conjure up as much of it as we want without any consequences, as both political parties would have you believe over the last several decades, why should FEMA ever be asking for more money to help hurricane victims?
If we want it, the solution isn’t bringing in more money from taxpayers, nor is it even spending less on other useless bullshit. The solution is literally moving a couple of decimal places on an Excel spreadsheet somewhere, probably at the New York Federal Reserve, and then in the Treasury Department, and then hitting a button.
As I’ve written a million times on this blog, this is a deeply troubling way to run monetary policy that is ultimately going to result in devastation for the country, in my opinion. But it takes things to a new level of sad for me to realize that not only do we not have the decency to run monetary policy in an honorable way in this country, we don’t even have the decency to press a couple buttons, make the hollow gesture to stock FEMA’s bank accounts before the nation goes bankrupt and at least fake as though we care about our own citizens anymore.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
SWAMP STORIES
KING REPORT
| he King Report October 4, 2024 Issue 7341 | Independent View of the News |
| Biden Says Discussing Israel Striking Iran Oil Facilities – BBG 10:31 ET Biden, asked if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, responds, “We are discussing that.”… November WTI Oil soared as much as 5.5%; December Brent Oil hit $77.65 (+5.07%). The September ISM Services PMI jumped 6.4 to 54.9, the highest level since February 2023. Prices Paid rose to 59.4 from 57.3. New Orders are +6.4 to 59.4. Remember kids, the Fed is data driven and is not political! Employment fell to 48.1 from 50.2. BBG: “The services index is 7.7 points higher than its manufacturing counterpart, the largest gap since the end of 2019 and illustrating a bifurcated economy.” ESZs rallied moderately after the Nikkei opening. A decline quickly materialized that accelerated after the 3 ET European opening. ESZs hit a daily low of 5726.50 at 3:44 ET. Conditioned buying appeared; ESZs zoomed to 5759.25 at 8:31 ET. After a retreat to 5739.25 at 9:52 ET, on the ISM report (It’s released early to clients), ESZs soared to 5770.00 at 10:09 ET. ESZs then tumbled on The Big Guy. ESZs then vacillated in a large range until they created a double bottom at 5733.50 (10:41 ET & 11:02 ET). Determined buying then pushed ESZs to 5761.50 at 11:51 ET. Was the entity that relentlessly saved stocks back in August doing the deed again? At that time, DJT relentlessly warned that Harris would crash the US economy and stock market. Reports surfaced that Team Obama-Harris instructed Israel to NOT bomb Iran oil facilities because it would drive oil and gasoline prices higher (weeks before the elections!). @IsraelRadar_com: Intensive US pressure on Israel to moderate retaliation strike in Iran, @gilicohen10 reports; the Americans are concerned about potential rise in oil prices if IDF bombs Iranian energy assets (With election near); US political & military officials are in close contact with Israeli counterparts. After hitting a peak of 5762.50 at 12:27ET, ESZs sank to 5752.75, creating a double bottom, at 13:01 ET. Some traders and pundits alleged that the September NFP had leaked, and it was stronger than expected. The conditioned afternoon rally and manipulation for the VIX Fix took ESZs to 5745.50 at 14:20 ET. ESZs then declined to 5731.50 at 15:10 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESZs to 5754.25 at 15:59 ET. Oil and gasoline hit new highs in late US trading. This strongly suggests that oil traders do not think Bibi is going to start acceding to US demands now – after months of ignoring them. @TankerTrackers: The National Iranian Tanker Company (NITC) appears to be fearing an imminent attack by Israel. Their empty VLCC supertankers vacated the country’s largest oil terminal, Kharg Island, yesterday. Clients: We have located & tagged all of them in satellite imagery. BOJ must patiently maintain loose policy, says board member Noguchi https://t.co/ioMzgIX98j “… we need to pause after hiking once to scrutinize the impact before raising rates again…” Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied modestly as Nvidia jumped 3.36% on CEO Huang’s tout of Blackwell chip demand, again. Negative aspects of previous session Oil & gasoline closed near their highs despite USA demands on Israel to not strike Irani oil assets. Stocks declined sharply; the DJTA was hit hard due to the oil rally; USZs closed -25/32. Ambiguous aspects of previous session What are the ramifications of Japan already halting its rate cuts? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5698.70 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5718.78; 5677.37 @JoeTruzman: Report that Hassan Nasrallah’s son-in-law was eliminated by an Israeli strike in the Mezzah neighborhood of Damascus earlier today. @EzraACohen: This strike is a message from Israel to Bashar al-Assad: don’t think of entering this fight we are capable of taking out people in Damascus. @DrEliDavid: Hashem Safieddine, Hezbollah’s new leader that replaced Nasrallah, was eliminated… (It appears that Israel’s bunker busters got the whole Hezbollah Shura Council that was meeting to elect Safieddine as Nasrallah’s successor. Reportedly, Iranian officials were there, too!) Nikki Haley on Fox News: “This tiny country (Israel) is fighting all of America’s enemies, yet the American President is taking the side of the Ayatollahs.” https://x.com/VividProwess/status/1841976156515385378 @bennyjohnson: Gov. DeSantis announces deployment of Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard to critical ports amid Hurricane Helene aftermath to resume operations interrupted by dragging dockworkers strike. https://t.co/kM9YRFUTqV Dockworkers suspended their strike until Jan 15 to finalize a deal that grants a 62% wage hike (to $63/hr). @GrageDustin: Ron DeSantis single handedly ended the dockworkers strike. There is no coincidence this happened just hours after he opened up the ports through the Florida National Guard… Fed Balance Sheet: -$33.134B with Notes & bonds -$20.214B, MBS -$14.252B; Reserves: -$79.551B Fed’s paper losses top the $200 bln mark http://reut.rs/3zLYjkQ @mablum: The US Dollar lost 96% of its value from 1913 – 2020, and then lost a further 18% of its value since then. Interestingly, while it took the Roman Empire ~200 years (from ~70 AD to ~270AD) to debase its Silver Denarius money by 95%, the US managed to debase the Dollar by 96% in just 107 years from 1913 – 2020, and that’s using @BLS_gov CPI calculations which arguably significantly undercount the true level of debasement. Notably, the US Dollar has been devalued by 78% in only the last 25 years. Today – Traders want to play for the Friday rally. But few traders want to be long equities over the weekend. If stocks are strong in the morning or at midday, be alert for selling down to sleeping levels during the final hour of trading. Team Obama-Harris wants a stronger-than-expected September Employment. Bulls want a soft report. If BLS serfs concoct a stronger-than-expected September Employment Report, there should be spirited selling and beaucoup angst and embarrassment at the Fed. The compelling question: If NFP is strong and stocks sink, will the mysterious ESZ manipulator surface and save stocks. Team Obama-Harris cannot DJT a reason to proclaim that Harris will crash the US economy and stock market like Trump warned in August. ESZs are -2.50; NQZs are -13.50; WTI Oil is +0.07, and USZs are +2/32 at 20:05 ET. Expected economic data and events: Sept NFP 150k, Mfg. -9k, Rate 4.2%, Wags 0.3% m/m & 3.8% y/y, Workweek 34.3, Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7%; NY Fed Pres Williams 9 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5547; 100-day MA: 5488; 150-day MA: 5372; 200-day MA: 5249 DJIA 50-day MA: 40,913; 100-day MA: 40,144; 150-day MA: 39,679; 200-day MA: 39,283 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5699.94 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 4983.62 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5356.01 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5616.84 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5725.71 triggers a sell signal @Bill_StebbinsJR: Eyewitness NC Hurricane damage update: From a fellow active duty brother in arms in the path of destruction in NC. He finally established coms with me via Starlink @elonmusk. It is FAR worse than you are being told. Share widely. “This entire area is a war zone, even if not directly “destroyed” by flood waters. There are men, women and children starving. . . The majority of federal and state assets are being diverted to the incorporated areas of Asheville, Black Mtn, etc. and without a deliberate effort yet into the rural unincorporated areas… There are bodies floating down the rivers. There are bodies stuck in the tops of trees. Linemen entering destroyed areas are finding dozens of children as young as 3 walking thru the mud… crying for their parents… Entire communities are just gone… Just bodies, with a stench increasing by the day. The death count WILL be in the thousands. Desperation is increasing, and most vets are lying on their roofs with rifles. Local rural gas stations, markets etc have clear militias forming with men in hodge podge gear and rifles patrolling. We are self-policing now… Was talking to a lineman yesterday how he’s finding heads and limbs every time debris is removed.” Pray for these people. The devastation is far worse than what you are being told and the federal and state response is largely ineffective. Buttigieg’s order grounding private drone flights in Hurricane Helene flood rescue zones crashes and burns: ‘You’re hiding something’ (body count & malfeasance?) https://trib.al/DPwGzYz Helicopter pilot threatened with arrest after flying rescue missions in flood-ravaged NC https://trib.al/bqxRn5T @TrumpWarRoom: North Carolina resident pleads for help as the Harris-Biden administration ignores them: “We haven’t seen FEMA … we’ve seen no agencies come through here!” https://t.co/sakSlZXxQZ @seanmdav: According to a source in North Carolina, despite 1,000 troops being ready and authorized to respond in NC, FEMA Region 4 and Democrat NC Gov. Roy Cooper haven’t yet written up the mission orders that the troops need in order to be deployed. So those troops are just sitting around twiddling their thumbs. It’s been 7 days since Hurricane Helene made landfall… @JamesMelville: North Carolina – “Absolutely nothing from the government. The government is not helping. This is just local people banding together and bringing supplies. So yeah, the government won’t come save you. It’s your neighbors and family that will be there for you when you need it.” @CynicalPublius: As each hour passes where desperately needed active-duty military assets sit idly on the ground in Fort Campbell, Fort Bragg, Camp LeJeune and Fort Stewart, the theory that the Democrat negligence is intentional so rural Trump counties cannot vote becomes increasingly plausible. North Carolina’s Democrat Governor Roy Cooper Still Hasn’t Deployed 1,000 Troops Approved to Assist in Hurricane Helene Recovery: REPORT https://t.co/gdpS5fp5pQ Actor @RealJamesWoods: …Never in my life could I have imagined that any government would let thousands of Americans die in a natural tragedy because of the way they vote. But now, as I watch the criminal malfeasance in NC under Biden/Harris, it has crossed my mind. It surely can’t be true, but their slovenly neglect is now bordering on willful political warfare. America Last: After Spending $640 Million On Migrants and Billions Abroad, FEMA Suddenly ‘Broke – Harris announced that FEMA would provide whopping $750 in relief funds for people who have immediate needs. As of April, more than $174 billion in American tax dollars have been appropriated to assist Ukraine. A total of $640.9 million has been spent to feed, clothe and house noncitizens… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/america-last-after-spending-640-million-migrants-and-billions-abroad-fema-suddenly-broke GOP Rep. @Jim_Jordan: The Biden-Harris administration took more than a billion tax dollars that had been allocated to FEMA for disaster relief and used it to house illegal aliens. Now, they’ve abandoned American hurricane victims in North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee. @KyleSeraphin: Who approved that budget? What are you doing about? Who needs Democrats when you have Republicans like you? @JackPosobiec: TRUMP (in Michigan): “They stole the FEMA money just like they stole it from a bank so they could give it to their illegal immigrants who they want to vote in this election.” https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1841955852825063617 This Reckless Decision Will Haunt the Biden-Harris Administration First, Biden told the American people to fund their own disaster relief for Hurricane Helene. Now, we are learning that the Biden admin’s FCC nuked 20,000 Starlink terminals that could have saved lives… This is happening because the Biden admin decided to prioritize political battles with Elon Musk over providing solutions to the American people. In August 2022, the FCC blocked 20,000 Starlink terminals meant to deliver high-speed internet to rural areas, including those now suffering the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Helene… (Joe brags that he just established those links, but Musk & DJT did it.) https://vigilantnews.com/post/this-reckless-decision-will-haunt-the-biden-harris-administration/ @elonmusk: Had the FCC not illegally revoked the SpaceX Starlink award, it would probably have saved lives in North Carolina. Lawfare costs lives. @ryantyre: If you are wondering why citizens are being turned away that are coming to help NC and TN – you’ll want to hear my experience as someone who has been doing this as a private citizen for almost a decade… THE REASON they gave us, was that these donations were not from companies on their “preferred vendors list” and that they would not accept them or give them to the residents of the keys impacted by the storm. It was at that point that I realized, this is ALL ABOUT MONEY. These ‘preferred vendors” are getting part of the money being released by the state and federal govt for each disaster. In turn, some of the “vendors” make it on the list because a friend gets them on the list, and in return for getting ridiculously outlandish amounts of compensation for the services they render, they give kickbacks… https://x.com/ryantyre/status/1841583311782568064 @chrismartenson (hurricane relief info): Them: I can’t post this online because it’s not quite public yet, but government officials had a town meeting with all of the residents of chimney rock and basically told them the town was being bulldozed, bodies and all and the land was being seized by the federal government they would not be able to move back and basically their homes the ones that were standing were no longer theirs and the federal government owned it all. I don’t know what crazy play for land this is, but there’s a lot of conspiracy about lithium mines and let me just tell you, as someone who lives in Charlotte and has friends who live in the area of Western North Carolina, they are not being helped and this is actually being a stand down operation by federal government… Our friend owns an Airbnb in Chimney Rock. They had a town meeting yesterday and someone from the federal government told them all of those things in the town meeting, but doesn’t want the information getting out. Also, they are not picking up the bodies. The stench of the bodies everywhere is insane and for some reason, the government does not want to pick up the bodies… (Hiding death data!) In Chandler NC 2000 people haven’t eaten anything or drank in 6 days and just got an SOS message out for help. I’m trying to tag the Cajun navy and operation airdrop but people are dying by the minute… The 82nd (Airborne) was begging to go since Saturday but has been told to stand down… https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/1841636020187431216 @bonchieredstate: George W. Bush was ripped apart for showing up three days after Katrina hit. Joe Biden shows up seven days later and no one in the press even mentions it. @nataliegwinters: @MSNBC invited an anti-Trump impeachment witness on to bash Trump over his “threat to democracy.” @AriMelber asked him if he was voting for Trump. “Absolute yes. That is how badly the Biden Harris team have prosecuted their job… I’m seeing so many attacks on democracy that eclipse January 6.” https://x.com/nataliegwinters/status/1841610591175409839 The ‘thing’ on social media now is posts of people telling reporters that they hate or dislike Trump, but they will vote for him because of how bad things are under Biden-Harris. CNN: Liz Cheney to campaign with Harris in Battleground States (Does Team Obama-Harris realize that Liz lost her WY GOP Primary battle by a record 37.4?) Who is more delusional? The people that believe Liz Cheney will swing votes to Harris, or Cheney, who thinks she has some significance in US politics? @Surabees: Democrats are SEETHING that the American people got to see who JD Vance really is without a leftwing media filter or via dishonestly edited clips on X. I’ve said it since the moment JD was selected as the VP nom, The Dem-Media smeared him so viciously because they feared him. Dems and their media stooges thought Vance would hurt Trump, especially with women, at the debate. Instead, Vance shined and has supplanted DeSantis as the GOP favorite in 2028. Democratic coalition in shambles as Harris bleeding support from key voter blocs Trump has made concerted attempts to win over Hispanic and black voters, traditionally Democratic constituencies, though his 2020 results with those groups only slightly improved upon his 2016 tallies. https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/thudemocratic-coalition-shambles-kamala-bleeds-key-voter-blocs GOP Sen. @ChuckGrassley: Jack Smith court filing released 2day is part of case started by former FBI official Thibault who was forced 2retire bc of extreme anti-Trump political bias my oversight revealed This case was politicized frm start Releasing info this way reeks of undeniable partisan tactics (Until Dems suffer negative consequences from their illegal or unethical conduct, it will continue.) @dbongino: Deep-state mob boss Jack Smith’s laughable, nothing burger of a court filing is a last minute attempt to distract you from the ongoing Kamala disaster. They don’t want you talking about the disastrous hurricane response, the growing death toll, their failure to prevent a billion-dollar-plus a day loss from their port strike, the largest ballistic missile attack in modern history, and the murderers they let into the country illegally… just THIS WEEK. Fox’s @BillMelugin_: In a new, heavily redacted DHS Inspector General report, the IG finds that “CBP, ICE, and TSA did not fully assess risks associated w/ releasing noncitizens without ID into the U.S. and allowing them to travel on domestic flights.” Key finding: “Under current processes, CBP and ICE cannot ensure they are keeping high-risk noncitizens without identification from entering the country… TSA cannot ensure its vetting and screening procedures prevent high-risk noncitizens who may pose a threat to the flying public from boarding domestic flights.” More highlights below… https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1841601701662576698 Politico: Tim Walz has a problem misspeaking… (Is ‘misspeaking’ anything like lying?) https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/tim-walz-misspeak-00182350 Walz says his 17-year-old son witnessed shooting as he played volleyball at rec center The shooting outside the Jimmy Lee Recreation Center occurred Jan. 18, 2023, and was widely reported, but Gus Walz’s presence that day wasn’t widely known until August when he became a sensation for standing up and tearfully supporting his dad, who was onstage at the Democratic National Convention at Chicago’s United Center… Gus Walz was in the building when the shooting occurred in the parking lot at the Jimmy Lee, which sits on the corner of Marshal Avenue across Lexington from Central High School. Albornoz wrote that Gus “helped keep everyone safe and calm, looking after the kids in the gym with us as I rushed out.”… https://www.startribune.com/walz-says-his-17-year-old-son-witnessed-shooting-as-he-played-volleyball-at-rec-center/601155471 National Archives to release batch of Biden docs, including on Hunter, one day after election https://t.co/lz41E2Hmzu Prosecutors request indefinite delay in trial for Trump assassination attempt suspect Ryan Routh “All videos, still images, text files, and audio files constitute approximately 4,000 terabytes (4 million gigabytes) of digital review to complete,” the filing says… https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/prosecutors-request-indefinite-delay-trial-trump-assassination-attempt/story The FBI Entraps Another Fake Assassin – Former FBI agent turned whistleblower Steve Friend says the Bureau’s playbook is simple: “Identify a vulnerable person. Establish fake friendships with undercover agents and informants. Encourage him to agree to commit a terrorist act he is otherwise incapable of committing. Arrest him.”… https://tomklingenstein.com/the-fbi-entraps-another/ Ex-FBI agent @RealStevefriend: This is 100% true. Thanks for covering it. Will Trump Make It to Election? By Jim Rickards Who Bankrolled Routh? Routh told the court on Monday, Sept. 16, that he had no material financial assets and owned no property. The court has appointed a public defender to represent Routh. If he has no assets, how was Routh able to afford his move to Hawaii? His travels to Ukraine? How did he finance his recruiting effort while in Ukraine? Where did he get the rifle? How could he afford to travel to Florida to carry out the assassination plan?… I worked for the CIA for 10 years in various capacities, including special operations… Ukraine has been a CIA outpost since 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union and the creation of the Russian Federation. Ukraine is riddled with CIA operatives, bioweapons labs and forward-deployed assets intended to destabilize Russia… https://dailyreckoning.com/will-trump-make-it-to-election/ Naval Academy’s Choice of Speaker Runs Afoul of Pentagon Edict By inviting a speaker, history professor Ruth Ben-Ghiat of New York University—who has already said that she plans to attack presidential candidate Donald Trump in the annual Bancroft Lecture at the U.S. Naval Academy on Oct. 10—the academy is violating Defense Department directives prohibiting the military from engaging in partisan political activity… (Dem privilege grants immunity for everything) https://www.dailysignal.com/2024/10/02/naval-academy-is-engaging-election-interference/ | |
GREG HUNTER
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