OCT 9/ANOTHER RAID AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO THE BRICS MEETING//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $8.50 TO $2607.90 WHILE SILVER WAS UP 7 CENTS TO $30.43//PLATINUM WAS DOWN $3.70 TO $952.50 WITH PALLADIUM UP $23.80 TO $1041.10//CHINA’S STOCK MARKET HAS A TUMULTUOUS FALL WORRIED ABOUT THEIR REAL ESTATE MESS//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH AND IRAN UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORTS//SLAY NEWS ETC//USA NEWS: HURRICANE MILTON HEADED STRAIGHT FOR TAMPA-SARASOTA FLORIDA//VP HARRIS TEAM SENDS 157 MILLION DOLLARS TO LEBANON OF ALL PLACES AND YET NO FUNDS FOR NORTH CAROLINE VICTIMS//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 314 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 102 523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1 2 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1 661 C JP MORGAN 19 709 C BARCLAYS 378 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4 737 C ADVANTAGE 25 1 905 C ADM 2 991 H CME 9
TOTAL: 429 429 MONTH TO DATE: 11,981
JPMorgan stopped 0/429
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 429 NOTICES FOR 42900 OZ or 1.334 TONNES
total notices so far: 11,981 contracts for 1,198,100 Oz (37.265 tonnes)
FOR OCT
SILVER NOTICES: 16 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.80 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1288 for 6.4400 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 876,26 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.07 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV OZ INTO THE SLV..
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 471.432 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2933 CONTRACTS TO 142,839 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $1.41 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS LOSS OF 1708 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS. //. WE HAD SOME SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS WITH THE LOWER PRICE DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE.. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1225 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUMONGOUS 1075 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE 1708 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE BUT THAT NUMBER OF LOST CONTRACTS IS MAGNIFIED BY OUR TAS LIQUIDATION TRADING BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS FRBNY CROOKS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A WHOPING 1075 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $1.41 AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAVE A HUGE LOSS OF 1466 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE 1075 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 90,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 6.450 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 6.450 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1075 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED 242 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 7 DAYS, total 5411 contracts: OR 27.055 MILLION OZ (773 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 27.055 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 27.055 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2933 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $1.41 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1466 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 5.355 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 90,000 OZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 6.450 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE LOSS OF 1708 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 1075 CONTRACTS (USED FOR TODAY’S RAID),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION.
/ SOME ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (1075 WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.
WE HAD 16 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 80,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6506 OI CONTRACTS TO 520,312 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 4,160 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (6506 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $28.95 IN PRICE /TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 41,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 38.074TONNES+ 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 58.248 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $28.95 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 514 OI CONTRACTS (1.598 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON FRIDAY, MONDAY AND YESTERDAY WITH THE TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING DAILY.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 5992 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 520,312
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 514 CONTRACTS WITH 6506 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5992 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1466 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2720 CONTRACTS, WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5992 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 6,506 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3646 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 41,300 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 38.074 TONNES. + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 58.248 TONNES
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 2720 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 27,761 CONTRACTS OF 2,776,100 OZ OR 86.34 TONNES IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4626 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 6 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 86.34 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 86.34 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.42% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 86.34 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2993 CONTRACTS OI TO 143,091 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1225 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1225 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1225 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2993 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1255 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1466 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 8.540 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $1.41 LOSS IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 230.92 PTS OR 6.62%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 289.55 PTS OR 1.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 340.42 PTS OR 0.87%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.15%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0671 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0720 Oil DOWN TO 73.15dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 76.55 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 6506 CONTRACTS TO 520,312 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.95 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS DESPITE THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3646). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS ON LAST TUESDAY WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! TODAY WE REVERTED BACK TO ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY LAST WEEK AS A MAJOR BUYER OF PHYSICAL (THE CHINESE) WERE OFF DUE TO GOLDEN WEEK AND CONTINUES ON THIS WEEK DESPITE THEIR PRESENCE.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 22 -24 2024/. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR GOLD BUT THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT THESE LOWER PRICES AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH TUESDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE BUT AGAIN AS WITH MONDAY’S TRADING, ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW) BUT WE DID HAVE MINOR SHORT PAPER GOLD COVERING AT LOWER PRICES. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL!
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5992 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC5992 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5992 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 514 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5992 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 6506 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $28.95 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SIZED 2720 CONTRACTS, WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S RAIDS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (58.248 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 38.074TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =58.248 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $28.95/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY. CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 1.598 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GIGANTIC 41,300 OZ QUE JUMP………………..
//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 38.074TONNES.+ 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
NEW STANDING FOR OCT 38.074 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 58.248 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $28.95???
WE HAD 4160 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 514 CONTRACTS OR 51,400 OZ (1.598 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
11,981 notices 1,198100oz 37.265TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits:0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits 0 oz
withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: NIL oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 508 contracts having GAINED 172 contracts.
We had 248 contracts filed on Tuesday so we GAINED a whopping 413 contracts on our two exchanges or 413 CONTRACTS underwent a huge 41300 oz queue jump. This is central bank action grabbing all the physical they can.
NOVEMBER GAINED 4 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1279
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 10,560 CONTRACTS TO 434,917
We had 429 contracts filed for today representing 42900 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 19 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 429 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (11,981x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(508 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (491 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,224,100 OZ OR 38.074 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, NEW TOTAL = 58.248 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (11,552 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT (336 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (248x 100 oz which equals 1,224,100 oz (38.074 TONNES + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY = 58.248 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 58.248 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
total pledged gold: 1,622,485.751 oz 50.466 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,048,313.722 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,828,206.279/// 243,49tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,220,107.447 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,205,721 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 193.023 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 9 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE OCT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
NIL
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
NIL
No of oz served today (contracts)
16 CONTRACT(S) (0.080 MILLION OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts (10,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1288Contracts (6.4400 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits NIL oz
We had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawal NIL oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/306.932million or 44.11%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.864MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305.873million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 18 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 8 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 684
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 3641 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 120,026 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 16 for 0.080 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 103,619 HUGE
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1288x 5,000 oz = 6.440 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (18 and the number of notices served upon today (16)x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month: 1288 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(16) number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 6.450 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 6.450 million oz.
There are 70.864 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 4 WITH GOLD UP $3.45 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $4.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 5,47 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
AUGUST 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $31.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 857.27 TONNES
AUGUST 29 WITH GOLD UP $23.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
AUGUST 28 WITH GOLD DOWN $14.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 856.12 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 876,26 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ
OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 4//WITH SILVER UP $.17//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 0.456 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.427 MILLION OZ
SEPT 3//WITH SILVER DOWN $.74//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A DEPOSIT OF 1.278 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.971 MILLION OZ
AUGUST30//WITH SILVER DOWN $.42//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 29//WITH SILVER UP $.37//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.558 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 464.693 MILLION OZ
AUGUST 28//WITH SILVER DOWN $0.76//HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:A DEPOSIT OF 2.301 MILLION OZ OZ OUT OF THE SLV. .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.281 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 471.432MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
end
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/
Costco Gold Bars Are Selling Out Even As Prices Surge, Survey Finds
Costco shoppers are purchasing the store’s 1-ounce gold bars at a high rate despite the precious metal’s record-high prices in recent months, according to a recent survey.
Around 77 percent of Costco outlets that sell bullion bars were sold out in the first week of October, a Bloomberg survey found.
The news outlet and financial services company said it surveyed 101 stores in 46 states that sell gold and recently restocked the precious metal.
The apparently high number of sales comes even as gold prices have surged in the past year or so. In the past 12 months, gold is up about 41 percent, going from around $1,864 per ounce to $2,640 per ounce.
According to data provided by the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), the spot price for gold hit a record $2,686 per ounce on Sept. 26.
Costco started selling the 1-ounce gold bars in late 2023 in its stores and via its website, available only to members.
Since then, the company has started selling silver coins and now platinum bars and coins.
Wells Fargo in April estimated that the big-box retailer is selling up to $200 million in gold per month.
“Our work suggests there has been significant interest given Costco’s aggressive pricing and high level of customer trust,” Edward Kelly, an analyst with Wells Fargo, wrote in a note to clients at the time.
“The accelerating frequency of Reddit posts, quick online sell-outs of product, and [Costco’s] robust monthly [ecommerce] sales suggests a sharp uptick in momentum since the launch,” he added.
Meanwhile, Costco Chief Financial Officer Gary Millerchip told Bloomberg that gold and silver are a “meaningful part” of the company’s growth, adding that Costco is happy to have the capacity to offer those products.
“It’s a great example of our merchants constantly finding new ways to deliver uniqueness and value,” he said.
The Epoch Times contacted Costco for comment but received no response by Tuesday morning.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has warned that gold isn’t a “safe” investment because “gold and other precious metals are highly volatile and past performance is not a good predictor of future returns.”
“Like other commodities, precious metal prices rise as demand goes up, so when economic anxiety or instability is high, the people who typically profit from precious metals are the sellers,” the CFTC said.
After the success of its selling of gold and silvers, Costco recently started selling platinum bars and coins. Last week, the retail giant listed Canadian Platinum Maple Leaf coins for $1,089.99 and Swiss-made one-ounce platinum bars for $1,089.99, according to an Epoch Times review of its website.
But like its gold and silver offerings, Costco places limitations on how many bars one can purchase at a given time.
In July, Costco said it will hike its annual membership fee by $5 to $65 for the “gold star” members, and to $130 from $120 for executive members, effective Sept. 1. Company executives also recently noted that consumers are spending less during the most recent quarter.
“There’s definitely some signs that the consumer is being very choiceful in how
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 230.92 PTS OR 6.62%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 289.55 PTS OR 1.33%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 340.42 PTS OR 0.87%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.15%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0671 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.0720 Oil DOWN TO 73.15dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 76.55 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.0671
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.0720
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 230.92 PTS OR 6.62%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 289.55 PTS OR .138%
2. Nikkei closed UP 340.42 POINTS OR 0.87%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 102.37 EURO FALLS TO 1.0966 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.929 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 148.51…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR DOWN this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.2315 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.548 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.995
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.181
3j Gold at $2619.15 /Silver at: 30.73 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 50/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.25
3m oil into the 73 dollar handle for WTI and 76 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 148.51 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.929% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8570 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9399 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.022 DOOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.307 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.937 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.25…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.211 DOWN 2 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.264 UP 0 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.092 UP 1 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Drop On DOJ’s Google Crackdown, China Plunge
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 08:12 AM
US equity futures are lower on news that the DOJ is considering a breakup of Alphabet’s Google search engine, in what would be a historic antitrust crackdown on Big Tech; Europe was flat while Asian markets slumped after Chinese A-shares suffered their biggest one-day plunge since February 2020 as investors are getting restless and demand stimulus actions from Beijing instead of just more words. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.1%, but off session lows, with megacap tech stocks mixed: NVDA rises 1.4%, while Alphabet shares fell about 1.5% after the US Justice Department said it’s considering asking a federal judge to force Alphabet’s Google search engine to sell off parts of its business. Yields remain largely unchanged, the 10Y TSY yielding 4.03%, while the US Dollar rises. Oil prices failed to rebound, and slid to session lows, down 0.5% despite nervousness around Israel response and anticipation on China stimulus. Outside US, China finance ministry unveiled a press conference plan on Saturday; New Zealand Central Bank surprisingly cut 50bp.
In premarket trading, Boeing slid 1% after S&P said the company could be downgraded to junk; Boeing also said negotiations to end an almost monthlong strike collapsed. Alphabet slipped about 1% after the US Justice Department told a federal judge it’s considering recommending that Google be forced to sell off parts of its operations. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Astera Labs jumps 12% after the company introduced a new portfolio of switches for AI workloads. Morgan Stanley views this as a reason to buy the stock.
Crinetics Pharmaceuticals declines 2% as the drug developer offers $400 million in shares via Leerink Partners and Morgan Stanley.
Helen of Troy rises 14% after the consumer products company behind Hydro Flask water bottles reported second-quarter net sales and adjusted earnings per share that exceeded Wall Street projections.
Zeta Global gains about 4% on an agreement to buy email marketing platform LiveIntent for $250 million in cash and stock plus a potential earnout.
While fears of antitrust crackdowns on Big Tech have been around for a while, the prospect of an actual breakup push is weighing on sentiment, said Kevin Thozet, a member of the investment committee at French asset manager Carmignac. However, he downplayed the eventual impact, because “at the end of the day, when we are looking at individual values of those separate business lines within Google, investors could be better off.”
Meanwhile, investors are monitoring clues on the outlook for interest rates. The 10-year US Treasury yield hovered above the key 4% level after diminished expectations for interest-rate cuts triggered a run of selling in previous days. The latest speeches from Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic pointed to a measured approach.
Carmignac’s Thozet is among those expecting the Fed to slow the rate-cutting pace after September’s 50 basis-point move, as “the probability of a recession on the one hand is falling and probability of no landing is increasing.”
Globally, however, rate-setters are turning more dovish. A European Central Bank rate cut next week is very probable, Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said. New Zealand cut rates by half a percentage point, stepping up the pace of easing, while India’s central bank opened the door for its first cut in four years.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index was flat despite Chinese stocks listed onshore suffering their biggest drop in more than four years. Real estate and automobile shares gained, while banks and travel stocks are the biggest laggards. Among individual movers, luxury goods firm Kering SA jumped as much as 1.3% on the news of a new CEO for its Gucci brand, while renewable energy companies were lifted by an International Energy Agency report predicting massive growth in renewable power capacity. Here are the most notable European movers:
Continental shares gain as much as 6.3% after the German tiremaker held a pre-close call that reassured analysts about its earnings outlook, amid gloomier profit warnings in the sector
Mondi shares gain as much as 4.3%, the most in over three months, after the paper and packaging company agreed to buy a variety of assets in Western Europe from Schumacher Packaging at an enterprise value of €634 million
United Utilities is the best performer on the Stoxx 600 utilities index on Wednesday, climbing as much as 2.8% after RBC upgraded to outperform, switching its preferences within the UK water sector
Kering advances as much as 2.1% after the company named Stefano Cantino as the new CEO of its Gucci label. The ex-Louis Vuitton exec’s appointment is a positive, though he has “a lot of work to do” to turn around the luxury brand, analysts say
Lonza shares advance as much as 1.7%, best performer in the Swiss Market Index on Wednesday morning, after Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on the drug ingredients maker with a buy recommendation
Redcare Pharmacy shares gain as much as 2.6% after Deutsche Bank raised the online pharmacy’s price target to a new Street high, saying the electronic prescribing ramp-up is showing good growth in Germany in 3Q
CMC Markets shares rise as much as 7.5%, most since June, after the online trading and spread-betting platform said it returned to profit in the first half of the financial year
ING Groep drops as much as 3.8% and is the worst performer in the Stoxx 600 banks index on Wednesday after Deutsche Bank downgraded to hold, removing its buy rating from the lender for the first time in eight years
Zealand Pharma slips as much as 4.5% after the Danish biotech company said it got a Complete Response Letter from the US FDA in relation to its new drug application for dasiglucagon for the prevention and treatment of hypoglycemia in pediatric patients with congenital hyperinsulinism
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks were dragged lower by Chinese shares, which tumbled on growing skepticism over Beijing’s stimulus plans and soft economic data. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.6%, declining for a second session, led by Chinese tech names including Tencent Holdings Ltd. and Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. The onshore benchmark CSI 300 Index slumped 7.1%, the most since February 2020, while Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong also fell. Chinese equities are coming under pressure as investors reassess the outlook for the country’s recovery after a key policy meeting Tuesday yielded little fresh stimulus and holiday-spending data underwhelmed. While the gauges pared declines after the Ministry of Finance said it would hold a Saturday briefing on fiscal policy, selling soon resumed as traders doubted there will be a major spending boost.
“The market’s cautious reaction suggests investors might be waiting for more than just announcements – they want actual fiscal action,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X Management. “If the MOF doesn’t deliver solid details, the market could stay volatile.”
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 0.1%, rising for an eighth straight day and set for its longest winning streak since April 2022 as traders priced less US monetary easing. The kiwi dollar is the weakest of the G-10 currencies, falling 0.9% against the greenback to its lowest in seven weeks after the RBNZ stepped up their easing pace with a 50 bps interest rate cut. USD/JPY rises 0.3% to 148.60. Traders will be watching now for minutes from last month’s Fed meeting, later on Wednesday, while US inflation data is due Thursday.
In rates, treasuries dropped after plying narrow ranges during Asia session and European morning. 7- to 30-year yields are about 2bp cheaper on the day with 10-year around 4.03%, lagging bunds and gilts by ~2bp in the sector. Curve spreads, though steeper, remain within 2bp of Tuesday’s close ahead of a busy day of Fed speak and US inflation data on Thursday. Bunds and gilts outperform with more Treasury auctions on deck: $39b 10-year reopening at 1pm New York time and $22b 30-year reopening Thursday. Also Wednesday, six Fed officials have scheduled appearances.
In commodities, oil prices advance, with WTI rising 1% to $74.30. Spot gold falls $4 to $2,617/oz.
Looking at today’s calendar, we get August wholesale inventories at 10am. Fed speakers scheduled include Bostic (8am), Logan (9:15am), Goolsbee (10:30am), Jefferson (12:30pm), Collins (5:30pm) and Daly (6pm), and minutes of FOMC’s September meeting are due out at 2pm.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 5,783.50
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 517.05
MXAP down 0.2% to 191.61
MXAPJ down 0.4% to 608.47
Nikkei up 0.9% to 39,277.96
Topix up 0.3% to 2,707.24
Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 20,637.24
Shanghai Composite down 6.6% to 3,258.86
Sensex up 0.4% to 81,945.46
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 8,187.38
Kospi down 0.6% to 2,594.36
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.24%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0958
Brent Futures up 0.8% to $77.76/bbl
Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,616.79
US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 102.68
Top Overnight News
Hurricane Milton churned toward Florida’s west coast as a Category 5 storm and is expected to make landfall overnight. The NHC forecasts a storm surge into Tampa Bay as high as 15 feet. BBG
The Justice Department submitted a filing that presented a federal court with a range of potential options—from conduct restrictions to a breakup—aimed at ending what a judge said was Google’s unlawful monopoly in search. The filing said the government is considering a “full range of tools” to restore competition, including “structural” changes to Google’s business that would prevent it from using products such as its Chrome browser or Android operating system to advantage Google’s engine search. WSJ
China’s finance ministry announced plans for a media briefing on Saturday, sparking hope for fresh fiscal stimulus announcements. WSJ
China consumer spending over the recent Golden Week holiday was relatively subdued, underscoring the need for government stimulus. CNBC
India’s central bank left rates unchanged, as expected, but shifted its forward guidance in a dovish direction (the policy bias is now neutral). WSJ
Greece’s central bank governor says the ECB should slash “highly restrictive” rates as inflation will likely be back to target by H1:25. FT
Couche-Tard boosted its offer for Seven & I to 7 trillion yen ($47.2 billion) last month, people familiar said. That’s a 20% premium to the prior — rejected — offer and the company’s stock price from yesterday. BBG
Rio Tinto agreed to buy Arcadium in an all-cash deal that values it at $6.7 billion, a 90% premium to its Oct. 4 closing price. BBG
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the Fed rate cut recalibrated policy to maintain the strength of the labour market and noted that economic growth is solid, inflation has eased substantially, and the labour market has noticeably cooled. Jefferson said he will watch the incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks in considering additional policy rate adjustments and his approach to policymaking is to make decisions meeting by meeting. Furthermore, he said the Fed has not changed its approach to monetary policy and is always thinking about the balance of risks, as well as noted the size of the September rate cut was timely and that the Fed’s rate cut was neither proactive nor reactive: BBG
Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said further rate cuts are likely needed, and future action is to be data-driven, while she added that September Fed forecasts predicted 50bps of cuts into year-end. Furthermore, Collins is more confident of inflation being on a durable path of ebbing and said core inflation has moderated but is still elevated: Barron’s
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed and initially took impetus from the positive performance on Wall St where the major indices were led higher amid a tech rally, although Chinese stocks clouded over sentiment following the recent stimulus-related disappointment. ASX 200 eked marginal gains as strength in tech and telecoms offset the losses in the commodity-related industries. Nikkei 225 was underpinned at the open and climbed back above the 39,000 level but with gains capped by a lack of drivers. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark fluctuated between gains and losses, with a late boost derived from reports China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th. The mainland was pressured after the recent stimulus-related disappointment and amid China’s ongoing trade frictions with the EU and US.
Top Asian News
China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th at 10:00 local time (03:00BST/22:00EDT), while it will introduce details of intensifying fiscal policy adjustment.
China’s Finance Ministry says they are to continue policy coordination with the PBoC and keep stable development of the bond market. To provide appropriate market conditions for PBoC treasury bond trading. Ministry and PBoC agree that treasury bond trading improves the monetary policy toolkit and improves liquidity management.
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.75%, as expected, while it stated that New Zealand is now in a position of excess capacity and that low import prices have assisted disinflation. RBNZ noted that the Committee assessed annual consumer price inflation within its 1-3% target and it was appropriate to cut the OCR by 50bps to achieve and maintain low and stable inflation. RBNZ Minutes stated the Committee confirmed future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy and noted the OCR of 4.75% is still restrictive and leaves monetary policy well-placed to deal with any near-term surprises. Furthermore, the Committee discussed the respective benefits of a 25bps cut versus a 50bps cut in the OCR and stated that a 50bps cut at this time is most consistent with the mandate of maintaining low and stable inflation, while it added the economic environment provides scope to further ease the level of monetary policy restrictiveness.
RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected via a 5-1 vote (prev. 4-2) and it unanimously voted to switch its stance to neutral (prev. remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation), while Governor Das stated that macroeconomic parameters of inflation and growth are well balanced although the moderation in headline inflation is expected to reverse in September and remain elevated in the near term. Das also noted that the growth story remains intact, and prospects of private consumption look bright but added that there is difficulty in navigating the last mile of disinflation and significant risks to inflation still stare at them.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C) are mixed, in what has been a choppy session thus far; indices opened around flat, and have traded indecisively on either side of the unchanged mark. European sectors are generally firmer, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow vs initially opening with a slight defensive bias. Optimised Personal Care is towards the top of the pile, alongside Media whilst Banks and Tech lag. US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.3%) are very modestly in the red, taking a breather from the gains seen in the prior session; some of the pressure could be attributed to the Google antitrust case. In recent trade, futures have been edging off worst levels. US Justice Department outlines potential remedies in Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google antitrust case with the US said to be weighing a Google breakup as a remedy in monopoly case, according to Bloomberg. Says it will respond to the DoJ’s ultimate proposals as the Co. makes its case in court next year, while it is concerned the DoJ is already signalling requests that go far beyond the specific legal issues in this case.
Top European News
UK Chancellor Reeves is pushing ahead with plans to borrow billions of pounds extra for infrastructure investment despite concerns about an increasing cost of UK government debt, with Reeves likely to free up GBP 10bln-20bln worth of borrowing room for capital investment by excluding the losses incurred by the state from the BoE’s previous asset purchase programs when calculating debt, according to The Guardian.
ECB’s Stournaras sees the case for two more rate cuts in the Eurozone this year and further easing in 2025, while he said inflation could be on track to meet the ECB’s target in H1 2025, according to FT.
ECB’s Villeroy says a decrease in ECB rates is “very likely” and will not be the last; French economy is resilient, via Bloomberg.
ECB’s Kazimir says he is not worried about the ECB undershooting the 2% goal; not as convinced as media reports on an October cut. Key information will be available in December.
EU is to robustly challenge at the WTO level the announced imposition of provisional anti-dumping measures by China on imports of Brandy from the EU and is to assess all possibilities to offer appropriate support to EU producers from situations of market disturbance, or threat thereof.
Banks are reportedly pushing the UK to soften its approach to deferred bonuses/clawbacks, via Bloomberg citing sources.
FX
USD is broadly stronger vs. peers after indecisive sessions on Monday and Tuesday. DXY has climbed to a 102.70 peak with focus on a potential test of 103; not breached since 16tth August. FOMC Minutes and a slew of speakers are due.
EUR is softer vs. the USD after a marginal session of gains yesterday, which saw the pair advance to a peak at 1.0996. Interim support kicks in via the 100DMA at 1.0932.
GBP is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD and flat vs. the EUR. Cable has slipped below its 50DMA at 1.3088 printing a trough at 1.3056.
JPY is marginally softer vs. the USD with not a great deal of fresh macro drivers to guide the pair. Ahead of the 150 mark, interim resistance is provided by the recent peak at 149.12 set on Monday.
NZD is the standout laggard across the majors after the RBNZ delivered a 50bps rate cut as expected whilst signalling the likelihood of further easing to come. AUD/USD have been stemmed by the rise in the AUD/NZD which vaulted to its highest level since July 31st. Furthermore, markets continue to focus on Chinese easing measures with the Finance Ministry set to hold a briefing on 12th October.
Fixed Income
USTs are firmer but with upside relatively modest in nature though, with USTs shy of Tuesday’s and Monday’s respective highs of 112-24 and 112-28+. FOMC Minutes and a slew of Fed speakers are due.
Bunds are firmer to the tune of 15 ticks and holding just shy of Tuesday’s 133.80 high, which is also just below Monday’s 134.03 peak. ECB speak today has had little impact on the complex, despite interesting commentary from Kazaks who noted that he is not as convinced as media reports on an October cut. The Bund auction passed with little issue.
Gilts are largely following peers, but did see some modest pressure following the UK Gilt auction, but downside which ultimately proved fleeting. Gilts currently around 96.82 after initially going as low as 96.65 following the auction.
UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.25% 2034 Gilt: b/c 3.25x (prev. 2.84x), average yield 4.17% (prev. 3.757%), tail 0.9bps (prev. 1.3bps).
Germany sells EUR 0.408bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 0.00% 2036 and EUR 0.846bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.60% 2041 Bund.
Bond investors have to wait as long as a year to transfer investments from their account on the Treasury (TreasuryDirect) to a brokerage, via WSJ citing sources.
Commodities
Crude is firmer attempting to pare back the hefty declines seen in the prior session; focus today is on any geopolitical updates out of the Middle East and as Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida later on Wednesday. Brent Dec resides in a USD 77.21-77.99/bbl parameter.
Subdued trade across the precious metals complex with some desks citing profit-taking in the absence of a geopolitical escalation yet, although an Israeli attack on Iran is looming. Spot gold currently sits in a USD 2,609.24-2,624.37/oz range.
Base metals are flat with a downward bias following yesterday’s sizeable losses induced by the disappointing Chinese NDRC press conference. 3M LME copper trades closer to the bottom end of a USD 9,719.50-9,855.50/t range.
NHC says Hurricane Milton is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida later on Wednesday, as a dangerous Major Hurricane.
US private inventory data (bbls): Crude +10.9mln (exp. +2.0mln), Distillate -2.6mln (exp. -1.9mln), Gasoline -0.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +1.4mln.
Japanese aluminium premium for the October-December shipment has been set at USD 175/T, +1.7% Q/Q, via Reuters citing sources.
India Steel Secretary says steel demand will be more than previously predicted; green steel will be the way forward.
Carlyle Group Chief Strategy Office Jeff Currie says demand dynamic is oil supportive; says oil should be trading in the USD 80/bbl range, via Bloomberg TV.
Russia’s idle primary oil refining capacity has been revised up 67% in October, to 4.0mln/T.
Geopolitics: Middle East
“Dozens of Iranian lawmakers wrote to the country’s Supreme National Security Council calling for urgent action towards developing nuclear weapons as Israeli threats rise in the region”, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran has told Gulf Arab states that it would be unacceptable if they allowed the use of their airspace or military bases against Iran, and warned any such move would draw a response, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters
Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed that Israel took out Nasrallah’s successor, while it was separately reported that PM Netanyahu summoned ministers for security consultations on Tuesday evening.
Israeli PM Netanyahu had set two conditions for Defence Minister Galant to travel to the US and refused to approve the trip to Washington that had been planned for Tuesday night until he receives a phone call with President Biden and the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran’s missile attack, according to Axios sources.
Israeli senior official said they are going to respond to the Iranian attack and there is no question about it but will not do it in a way that will start an all-out war with Iran, according to Axios. It was also reported that Israeli officials cited by Washington Post said that the country is preparing a significant military response to Iran’s attack.
Israeli officials stated that Israel is capable of harming Iran but the possibility of its response requires coordination with the US, while Defence Minister Galant and security leaders push to strike Iran militarily and have already submitted the plans to the political leadership.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington and Arab countries are discussing with Tehran a proposal for a ceasefire on all fronts except Gaza which would be conditional on Hezbollah’s withdrawal to northern Litani and the dismantling of military structure near the border, according to Sky News Arabia.
White House said the US continues to have discussions with Israel on its response to the Iranian attack. It was separately reported that the White House said despite the fighting, they are working with Israel and Lebanon to define a process for a return to ceasefire negotiations,according to Asharq News
US officials cited by NBC do not believe that Israel has made a final decision on the details of the response to Iran and discussions with Tel Aviv included Washington providing intelligence support or even launching air strikes. However, Washington has not decided on any action despite its intention to support Israel’s right to defend itself and Israel did not inform Washington of plans to retaliate against Iran.
US officials feared that Israel will implement its response to Iran during the planned Israeli Defence Minister Gallant’s visit to Washington although the visit has since been postponed.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked with drones a vital target in the north of the occupied territories, according to Al Jazeera.
North Korea’s army said it is to completely cut off roads and railways connected to South Korea from October 9th, according to KCNA.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -5.1%, prior -1.3%
10:00: Aug. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 1.1%
10:00: Aug. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
14:00: Sept. FOMC Meeting Minutes
Central Bank speakers
08:00: Fed’s Bostic Gives Welcome Remarks
09:15: Fed’s Logan Speaks at Houston Energy Conference
10:30: Fed’s Goolsbee Gives Opening Remarks at Payments Conference
12:30: Fed’s Jefferson Speaks on Discount Window
17:30: Fed’s Collins Speaks at Worcester Event
18:00: Fed’s Daly Speaks in Moderated Conversation
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
While I’ve been away in Berlin for a couple of days my 9-yr old daughter Maisie has been on her first ever residential trip away with school. When I spoke to my wife last night she said that she was missing her so much as she was like a good friend to her. I said what about missing me!? She said “well that’s different”. Such is life. One thing we can be in agreement on though is that when the twin boys do the same trip next year, the peace and quiet will outweigh any missing them feelings.
While I’ve been travelling, the week has started off a bit all over the place and markets have put in another varied performance over the last 24 hours, with sharp differences across regions and asset classes. On the one hand, several risk assets did quite well, with the S&P 500 (+0.97%) closing in on its all-time high again, driven by a strong performance for the Magnificent 7 (+1.71%). However, China-exposed stocks have slumped thanks to disappointment over the scale of China’s stimulus, or at least the lack of detail provided so far, which also helped to drive a sharp downturn in oil prices, even as geopolitical risks remained high.
Those geopolitical risks stayed front and centre yesterday, as investors waited to see what form Israel’s response against Iran might take. Amir Ohana, the speaker of the Knesset, said yesterday that “discussions are still taking place at the highest levels regarding the outline of the response — but it will be significant, and it will come”. In turn, Iran have also warned that they would respond to any attack, with foreign minister Abbas Araghchi saying yesterday that “We advise Israel not to test our will”. So there are still significant fears about how the current situation could escalate. Later on, there was renewed uncertainty over future steps by Israel as the US Pentagon confirmed that a planned visit to Washington by Israel’s defence minister Yoav Gallant had been postponed. Bloomberg and other outlets reported that this came due to last-minute objections to the trip by Israel’s PM Netanyahu.
The latter news caused a decent spike in oil intra-day but the overall market tone was still one of a moderation in geopolitical risk pricing, in part following earlier comments by Hezbollah’s deputy leader that it backed efforts by Lebanon’s officials to reach a ceasefire. This saw Brent crude (-4.28%) fall back to $77.47/bbl, whilst WTI (-4.63%) posted its biggest daily decline of 2024. So that ends a run of five consecutive daily gains, in which oil prices saw their largest increase over 5 sessions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in early 2022. Broader volatility also fell back, with the VIX index coming down -1.22pts to 21.42pts. Those oil price declines were also driven by disappointment at the scale of China’s stimulus, which had already led to a slump in Chinese equities yesterday. That was echoed across a broader range of commodities too, mainly because of concern about Chinese demand, meaning that industrial metals put in a weak performance, with copper (-2.41%) seeing its biggest daily loss in over a month. Indeed, Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-1.58%) suffered its worst daily performance since June, albeit after a significant advance in the last month as US recession risks have eased and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated.
That China news meant that equities in the US and Europe with China exposure also performed very poorly. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (made up of companies traded in the US who do a majority of their business in China) slumped by -6.85% yesterday, which was its worst daily performance since October 2022. A similar pattern was clear in Europe, where the CAC 40 (-0.72%) was one of the weakest European indices given its concentration of luxury goods firms. Meanwhile in Germany, the DAX fell -0.20%, with several automakers leading the decline given their exposure to China as well, and the STOXX 600 was down -0.55%.
By contrast, US equities posted renewed gains, with the S&P 500 (+0.97%) ending the day just two tenths of a percent from its all-time high on September 30. That was primarily driven by the Magnificent 7 (+1.71%), with the moves in the two indices near mirror images of Monday’s declines (-0.96% and -1.86%). All of the Mag-7 were higher on the day, with Nvidia (+4.05%) extending its 5-day gain to +13.58%. On the other hand the small-cap Russell 2000 (+0.09%) posted only a minor advance, while energy (-2.63%) and materials (-0.37%) sectors within the S&P 500 declined amid the reversal in commodities.
For rates it was a quieter day, but ultimately most sovereign bonds rallied, as the commodity price declines helped to ease concerns about inflationary pressures. For instance, the US 10yr yield was down -1.4bps to 4.01%, but that was entirely driven by lower inflation breakevens, as the 10yr real rate was actually up +1.1bps to 1.73%. Meanwhile at the front end, the 2yr yield came down -3.7bps to 3.96%. In Europe, there were similar modest gains, with yields on 10yr bunds (-1.2bps), OATs (-1.4bps) and BTPs (-2.8bps) all moving lower.
These bond gains came even as near-term pricing of Fed and ECB rate cuts was flat to slightly lower on the day amid some cautious commentary. The Fed’s Collins noted that “a careful, data-based approach to policy normalization will be appropriate”, suggesting that further large cuts are unlikely as things stand. A similar tone was visible from ECB’s Centeno who said “we have to be cautious — maintain gradualism in decisions”. So one of the of the most dovish ECB voices alluding to a high bar for more aggressive cuts. Later in the evening, Bundesbank’s Nagel commented that a Trump victory in the US election could lead to US policy shifts that “could lead to noticeable losses in growth” and “also bring inflation risks for the euro area and Germany”.
In Asia Chinese markets are continuing to reverse from their post holiday opening highs yesterday with the CSI down -6.95% and the Shanghai Composite falling -5.30%. The Hang Seng is also down -1.74%, extending its losses after the worst drop (-9.41%) since 2008 the previous day. In contrast, the Nikkei is up +0.62% and the S&P/ASX 200 has gained +0.11%. South Korean markets are closed for a public holiday. S&P 500 (-0.16%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.25%) futures are lower with Google under pressure given the DoJ pronouncements overnight that the company may be forced to be broken up in the continued antitrust case around their online search monopoly.
In monetary policy news, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut interest rates by 0.5 percentage points, lowering the Official Cash Rate from 5.25% to 4.75%. This marks the central bank’s second consecutive reduction, following a quarter-point cut in August. Following the decision, the New Zealand dollar has weakened by – 0.86%, trading at 0.6086 against the US dollar, as the RBNZ expressed a cautious outlook on the economy, suggesting the possibility of further cuts.
There wasn’t much data again yesterday, although German industrial production did grow by a stronger-than-expected +2.9% in August (vs. +0.8% expected). Otherwise, the US trade deficit for August came in at $70.4bn (vs. $70.5bn expected). Finally, the Atlanta Fed’s latest estimate for Q3 GDP in the US now stands at 3.2% following yesterday’s update.
To the day ahead now, and we’ll get the minutes from the September FOMC meeting, and also hear from plenty of central bank speakers, including Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, the fed’s Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee, Collins and Daly, along with the ECB’s Elderson and Villeroy. Data releases include the German trade balance for August.
2B) European report
Bourses choppy, while the Dollar, Crude and Bonds are firmer ahead of Fed minutes & speakers – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 04:26 AM
European bourses are choppy and trading indecisively on either side of the unchanged mark, but the FTSE 100 outperforms; US futures are modestly lower.
Dollar is firmer with G10s lower across the board to varying degrees; the Kiwi lags after the RBNZ delivered a widely expected 50bps cut and signalled the likelihood of further easing to come.
Bonds are incrementally firmer, UK auction garnered solid demand but the tail was still large sparking some modest pressure in Gilts.
Crude is firmer attempting to pare back the hefty losses in the prior session; XAU/base metals are modestly lower.
Looking ahead, US Wholesale Sales, FOMC & NBH Minutes, Speakers including Fed’s Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee, Jefferson, Barkin, Collins & Daly, Supply from the US.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (U/C) are mixed, in what has been a choppy session thus far; indices opened around flat, and have traded indecisively on either side of the unchanged mark.
European sectors are generally firmer, albeit with the breadth of the market fairly narrow vs initially opening with a slight defensive bias. Optimised Personal Care is towards the top of the pile, alongside Media whilst Banks and Tech lag.
US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.3%) are very modestly in the red, taking a breather from the gains seen in the prior session; some of the pressure could be attributed to the Google antitrust case. In recent trade, futures have been edging off worst levels.
US Justice Department outlines potential remedies in Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google antitrust case with the US said to be weighing a Google breakup as a remedy in monopoly case, according to Bloomberg. Says it will respond to the DoJ’s ultimate proposals as the Co. makes its case in court next year, while it is concerned the DoJ is already signalling requests that go far beyond the specific legal issues in this case.
USD is broadly stronger vs. peers after indecisive sessions on Monday and Tuesday. DXY has climbed to a 102.70 peak with focus on a potential test of 103; not breached since 16tth August. FOMC Minutes and a slew of speakers are due.
EUR is softer vs. the USD after a marginal session of gains yesterday, which saw the pair advance to a peak at 1.0996. Interim support kicks in via the 100DMA at 1.0932.
GBP is softer vs. the broadly firmer USD and flat vs. the EUR. Cable has slipped below its 50DMA at 1.3088 printing a trough at 1.3056.
JPY is marginally softer vs. the USD with not a great deal of fresh macro drivers to guide the pair. Ahead of the 150 mark, interim resistance is provided by the recent peak at 149.12 set on Monday.
NZD is the standout laggard across the majors after the RBNZ delivered a 50bps rate cut as expected whilst signalling the likelihood of further easing to come. AUD/USD have been stemmed by the rise in the AUD/NZD which vaulted to its highest level since July 31st. Furthermore, markets continue to focus on Chinese easing measures with the Finance Ministry set to hold a briefing on 12th October.
USTs are firmer but with upside relatively modest in nature though, with USTs shy of Tuesday’s and Monday’s respective highs of 112-24 and 112-28+. FOMC Minutes and a slew of Fed speakers are due.
Bunds are firmer to the tune of 15 ticks and holding just shy of Tuesday’s 133.80 high, which is also just below Monday’s 134.03 peak. ECB speak today has had little impact on the complex, despite interesting commentary from Kazaks who noted that he is not as convinced as media reports on an October cut. The Bund auction passed with little issue.
Gilts are largely following peers, but did see some modest pressure following the UK Gilt auction, but downside which ultimately proved fleeting. Gilts currently around 96.82 after initially going as low as 96.65 following the auction.
UK sells GBP 3.75bln 4.25% 2034 Gilt: b/c 3.25x (prev. 2.84x), average yield 4.17% (prev. 3.757%), tail 0.9bps (prev. 1.3bps).
Germany sells EUR 0.408bln vs exp. EUR 0.5bln 0.00% 2036 and EUR 0.846bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.60% 2041 Bund.
Bond investors have to wait as long as a year to transfer investments from their account on the Treasury (TreasuryDirect) to a brokerage, via WSJ citing sources.
Crude is firmer attempting to pare back the hefty declines seen in the prior session; focus today is on any geopolitical updates out of the Middle East and as Hurricane Milton is expected to make landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida later on Wednesday. Brent Dec resides in a USD 77.21-77.99/bbl parameter.
Subdued trade across the precious metals complex with some desks citing profit-taking in the absence of a geopolitical escalation yet, although an Israeli attack on Iran is looming. Spot gold currently sits in a USD 2,609.24-2,624.37/oz range.
Base metals are flat with a downward bias following yesterday’s sizeable losses induced by the disappointing Chinese NDRC press conference. 3M LME copper trades closer to the bottom end of a USD 9,719.50-9,855.50/t range.
NHC says Hurricane Milton is forecast to make landfall on the Gulf coast of Florida later on Wednesday, as a dangerous Major Hurricane.
US private inventory data (bbls): Crude +10.9mln (exp. +2.0mln), Distillate -2.6mln (exp. -1.9mln), Gasoline -0.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +1.4mln.
Japanese aluminium premium for the October-December shipment has been set at USD 175/T, +1.7% Q/Q, via Reuters citing sources.
India Steel Secretary says steel demand will be more than previously predicted; green steel will be the way forward.
Carlyle Group Chief Strategy Office Jeff Currie says demand dynamic is oil supportive; says oil should be trading in the USD 80/bbl range, via Bloomberg TV.
Russia’s idle primary oil refining capacity has been revised up 67% in October, to 4.0mln/T.
German Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Aug) 22.5B vs. Exp. 18.4B (Prev. 16.8B); Exports MM 1.3% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 1.7%), Imports MM -3.4% vs. Exp. -2.5% (Prev. 5.4%).
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
UK Chancellor Reeves is pushing ahead with plans to borrow billions of pounds extra for infrastructure investment despite concerns about an increasing cost of UK government debt, with Reeves likely to free up GBP 10bln-20bln worth of borrowing room for capital investment by excluding the losses incurred by the state from the BoE’s previous asset purchase programs when calculating debt, according to The Guardian.
ECB’s Stournaras sees the case for two more rate cuts in the Eurozone this year and further easing in 2025, while he said inflation could be on track to meet the ECB’s target in H1 2025, according to FT.
ECB’s Villeroy says a decrease in ECB rates is “very likely” and will not be the last; French economy is resilient, via Bloomberg.
ECB’s Kazimir says he is not worried about the ECB undershooting the 2% goal; not as convinced as media reports on an October cut. Key information will be available in December.
EU is to robustly challenge at the WTO level the announced imposition of provisional anti-dumping measures by China on imports of Brandy from the EU and is to assess all possibilities to offer appropriate support to EU producers from situations of market disturbance, or threat thereof.
Banks are reportedly pushing the UK to soften its approach to deferred bonuses/clawbacks, via Bloomberg citing sources.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the Fed rate cut recalibrated policy to maintain the strength of the labour market and noted that economic growth is solid, inflation has eased substantially, and the labour market has noticeably cooled. Jefferson said he will watch the incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks in considering additional policy rate adjustments and his approach to policymaking is to make decisions meeting by meeting. Furthermore, he said the Fed has not changed its approach to monetary policy and is always thinking about the balance of risks, as well as noted the size of the September rate cut was timely and that the Fed’s rate cut was neither proactive nor reactive.
Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said further rate cuts are likely needed, and future action is to be data-driven, while she added that September Fed forecasts predicted 50bps of cuts into year-end. Furthermore, Collins is more confident of inflation being on a durable path of ebbing and said core inflation has moderated but is still elevated.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“Dozens of Iranian lawmakers wrote to the country’s Supreme National Security Council calling for urgent action towards developing nuclear weapons as Israeli threats rise in the region”, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran has told Gulf Arab states that it would be unacceptable if they allowed the use of their airspace or military bases against Iran, and warned any such move would draw a response, according to a senior Iranian official cited by Reuters
Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed that Israel took out Nasrallah’s successor, while it was separately reported that PM Netanyahu summoned ministers for security consultations on Tuesday evening.
Israeli PM Netanyahu had set two conditions for Defence Minister Galant to travel to the US and refused to approve the trip to Washington that had been planned for Tuesday night until he receives a phone call with President Biden and the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran’s missile attack, according to Axios sources.
Israeli senior official said they are going to respond to the Iranian attack and there is no question about it but will not do it in a way that will start an all-out war with Iran, according to Axios. It was also reported that Israeli officials cited by Washington Post said that the country is preparing a significant military response to Iran’s attack.
Israeli officials stated that Israel is capable of harming Iran but the possibility of its response requires coordination with the US, while Defence Minister Galant and security leaders push to strike Iran militarily and have already submitted the plans to the political leadership.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington and Arab countries are discussing with Tehran a proposal for a ceasefire on all fronts except Gaza which would be conditional on Hezbollah’s withdrawal to northern Litani and the dismantling of military structure near the border, according to Sky News Arabia.
White House said the US continues to have discussions with Israel on its response to the Iranian attack. It was separately reported that the White House said despite the fighting, they are working with Israel and Lebanon to define a process for a return to ceasefire negotiations,according to Asharq News
US officials cited by NBC do not believe that Israel has made a final decision on the details of the response to Iran and discussions with Tel Aviv included Washington providing intelligence support or even launching air strikes. However, Washington has not decided on any action despite its intention to support Israel’s right to defend itself and Israel did not inform Washington of plans to retaliate against Iran.
US officials feared that Israel will implement its response to Iran during the planned Israeli Defence Minister Gallant’s visit to Washington although the visit has since been postponed.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked with drones a vital target in the north of the occupied territories, according to Al Jazeera.
OTHER
North Korea’s army said it is to completely cut off roads and railways connected to South Korea from October 9th, according to KCNA.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is incrementally lower and trading just above USD 62k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded mixed and initially took impetus from the positive performance on Wall St where the major indices were led higher amid a tech rally, although Chinese stocks clouded over sentiment following the recent stimulus-related disappointment.
ASX 200 eked marginal gains as strength in tech and telecoms offset the losses in the commodity-related industries.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned at the open and climbed back above the 39,000 level but with gains capped by a lack of drivers.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark fluctuated between gains and losses, with a late boost derived from reports China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th. The mainland was pressured after the recent stimulus-related disappointment and amid China’s ongoing trade frictions with the EU and US.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th at 10:00 local time (03:00BST/22:00EDT), while it will introduce details of intensifying fiscal policy adjustment.
China’s Finance Ministry says they are to continue policy coordination with the PBoC and keep stable development of the bond market. To provide appropriate market conditions for PBoC treasury bond trading. Ministry and PBoC agree that treasury bond trading improves the monetary policy toolkit and improves liquidity management.
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.75%, as expected, while it stated that New Zealand is now in a position of excess capacity and that low import prices have assisted disinflation. RBNZ noted that the Committee assessed annual consumer price inflation within its 1-3% target and it was appropriate to cut the OCR by 50bps to achieve and maintain low and stable inflation. RBNZ Minutes stated the Committee confirmed future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy and noted the OCR of 4.75% is still restrictive and leaves monetary policy well-placed to deal with any near-term surprises. Furthermore, the Committee discussed the respective benefits of a 25bps cut versus a 50bps cut in the OCR and stated that a 50bps cut at this time is most consistent with the mandate of maintaining low and stable inflation, while it added the economic environment provides scope to further ease the level of monetary policy restrictiveness.
RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected via a 5-1 vote (prev. 4-2) and it unanimously voted to switch its stance to neutral (prev. remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation), while Governor Das stated that macroeconomic parameters of inflation and growth are well balanced although the moderation in headline inflation is expected to reverse in September and remain elevated in the near term. Das also noted that the growth story remains intact, and prospects of private consumption look bright but added that there is difficulty in navigating the last mile of disinflation and significant risks to inflation still stare at them.
Reports of a China finance briefing, ECB and Fed speakers ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 01:47 AM
APAC stocks traded mixed and initially took impetus from the positive performance on Wall St where the major indices were led higher amid a tech rally.
China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th at 10:00 local time (03:00BST/22:00EDT), while it will introduce details of intensifying fiscal policy adjustment
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.75% and the RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, both as expected.
US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu will speak on Wednesday; Israeli senior official said they are going to respond to the Iranian attack but will not do it in a way that will start an all-out war with Iran.
European equity futures are indicative of an uneventful cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Tuesday.
Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade Balance, US Wholesale Sales, FOMC & NBH Minutes, Speakers including ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Bostic, Logan, Goolsbee, Jefferson, Barkin, Collins & Daly, Supply from UK, Germany & US.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were bid throughout the US session with advances led by the Nasdaq as tech and other heavyweight sectors outperformed, while the small-cap Russell 2k lagged but still closed in the green. The majority of sectors gained although Energy was the notable laggard as crude prices pared some of the recent geopolitical-induced rally with prices not helped by the lack of fresh stimulus announcement from the Chinese state planner’s press conference which hit the demand side of the equation. Nonetheless, the focus remained on geopolitics and crude prices settled off worst levels after an NBC report suggested that Iranian energy facilities are still a target under consideration by Israel, although a senior Israeli official suggested that they will respond in a way that will not lead to an all-out war with Iran.
SPX +0.97% at 5,751, NDX +1.55% at 20,108, DJIA +0.30% at 42,080, RUT +0.09% at 2,195.
Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said the Fed rate cut recalibrated policy to maintain the strength of the labour market and noted that economic growth is solid, inflation has eased substantially, and the labour market has noticeably cooled. Jefferson said he will watch the incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks in considering additional policy rate adjustments and his approach to policymaking is to make decisions meeting by meeting. Furthermore, he said the Fed has not changed its approach to monetary policy and is always thinking about the balance of risks, as well as noted the size of the September rate cut was timely and that the Fed’s rate cut was neither proactive nor reactive.
Fed’s Bostic (voter) said the labour market has slowed down, but it is not slow or weak and monthly job creation is above what is needed to account for population growth. Bostic also said the economy is close to the Fed’s targets and moving closer, while the inflation rate is still ‘quite a ways’ above 2%.
Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said further rate cuts are likely needed, and future action is to be data-driven, while she added that September Fed forecasts predicted 50bps of cuts into year-end. Furthermore, Collins is more confident of inflation being on a durable path of ebbing and said core inflation has moderated but is still elevated.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded mixed and initially took impetus from the positive performance on Wall St where the major indices were led higher amid a tech rally, although Chinese stocks clouded over sentiment following the recent stimulus-related disappointment.
ASX 200 eked marginal gains as strength in tech and telecoms offset the losses in the commodity-related industries.
Nikkei 225 was underpinned at the open and climbed back above the 39,000 level but with gains capped by a lack of drivers.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed as the Hong Kong benchmark fluctuated between gains and losses, with a late boost derived from reports China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th. The mainland was pressured after the recent stimulus-related disappointment and amid China’s ongoing trade frictions with the EU and US.
US equity futures slightly eased back overnight after the prior day’s gains and as participants await looming key events.
European equity futures are indicative of an uneventful cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY kept within a tight range around 102.50 following the lack of tier-1 releases from the US so far this week, although this is set to change with FOMC Minutes due later today followed by CPI on Thursday and PPI on Friday, while the latest rhetoric from Fed’s Bostic, Collins and Jefferson had little sway on price action.
EUR/USD remained lacklustre after retreating yesterday from resistance near the 1.1000 handle and as ECB rhetoric continues to hint at a cut next week.
GBP/USD traded indecisively on both sides of the 1.3100 level in the absence of any major pertinent macro catalysts.
USD/JPY struggled for direction amid a quiet data calendar and with the downside cushioned by a floor around 148.00.
Antipodeans were mixed in which NZD/USD was the underperformer in the aftermath of the RBNZ’s rate decision in which the central bank delivered a widely anticipated 50bps rate cut and noted that the economic environment provides scope to further ease. AUD was later boosted amid reports that China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures marginally extended on a recent rebound in quiet trade as participants awaited the FOMC Minutes, Fed speakers and 10yr supply.
Bund futures were off the prior day’s trough but lacked any meaningful strength ahead of Bund issuances and the latest German trade data.
10yr JGB futures demand was subdued amid the positive risk appetite in Japan and the absence of pertinent data releases.
FTSE Russell added India to the EM bond index effective September 2025, while South Korean government bonds will also be added to the FTSE World Government bond index.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures regained some composure after yesterday’s aggressive pullback with support seen following a report citing US officials that Israel is considering striking energy facilities in Iran, although the rebound was limited following the enormous crude build in the latest private sector inventory data.
US private inventory data (bbls): Crude +10.9mln (exp. +2.0mln), Distillate -2.6mln (exp. -1.9mln), Gasoline -0.6mln (exp. -1.1mln), Cushing +1.4mln.
EIA STEO sees US oil production to average 13.32mln BPD in October (prev. 13.25mln BPD in September) and to average 13.51mln BPD in November, while US natural gas production is to average 113.3 BCF/day in October (prev. 113.2 BCF/day) and to average 113.7 BCF/day in November.
Spot gold lacked demand after its recent slip and with the precious metal also restrained by an uneventful dollar.
Copper futures attempted to nurse some of the prior day’s losses but was thwarted amid China-related headwinds, although some upticks were seen on reports China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was relatively flat with price action contained within a narrow range above the 62,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China’s Finance Ministry is to hold a press briefing on fiscal policy and economic development on October 12th at 10:00 local time (03:00BST/22:00EDT), while it will introduce details of intensifying fiscal policy adjustment.
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.75%, as expected, while it stated that New Zealand is now in a position of excess capacity and that low import prices have assisted disinflation. RBNZ noted that the Committee assessed annual consumer price inflation within its 1-3% target and it was appropriate to cut the OCR by 50bps to achieve and maintain low and stable inflation. RBNZ Minutes stated the Committee confirmed future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy and noted the OCR of 4.75% is still restrictive and leaves monetary policy well-placed to deal with any near-term surprises. Furthermore, the Committee discussed the respective benefits of a 25bps cut versus a 50bps cut in the OCR and stated that a 50bps cut at this time is most consistent with the mandate of maintaining low and stable inflation, while it added the economic environment provides scope to further ease the level of monetary policy restrictiveness.
RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 6.50%, as expected via a 5-1 vote (prev. 4-2) and it unanimously voted to switch its stance to neutral (prev. remaining focused on the withdrawal of accommodation), while Governor Das stated that macroeconomic parameters of inflation and growth are well balanced although the moderation in headline inflation is expected to reverse in September and remain elevated in the near term. Das also noted that the growth story remains intact, and prospects of private consumption look bright but added that there is difficulty in navigating the last mile of disinflation and significant risks to inflation still stare at them.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israeli PM Netanyahu confirmed that Israel took out Nasrallah’s successor, while it was separately reported that PM Netanyahu summoned ministers for security consultations on Tuesday evening.
Israeli PM Netanyahu had set two conditions for Defence Minister Galant to travel to the US and refused to approve the trip to Washington that had been planned for Tuesday night until he receives a phone call with President Biden and the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran’s missile attack, according to Axios sources.
Israeli Defence Minister Gallant postponed his trip to Washington after PM Netanyahu’s objection, while advanced talks are underway to hold a phone call between US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu on Iran in the coming days, according to Axios citing sources. It was later reported that US President Biden and Israeli PM Netanyahu will speak on Wednesday.
Israeli senior official said they are going to respond to the Iranian attack and there is no question about it but will not do it in a way that will start an all-out war with Iran, according to Axios. It was also reported that Israeli officials cited by Washington Post said that the country is preparing a significant military response to Iran’s attack.
Israeli officials stated that Israel is capable of harming Iran but the possibility of its response requires coordination with the US, while Defence Minister Galant and security leaders push to strike Iran militarily and have already submitted the plans to the political leadership.
Israel was reportedly considering striking energy facilities in Iran, according to Al Arabiya citing comments by US officials to NBC.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported that Washington and Arab countries are discussing with Tehran a proposal for a ceasefire on all fronts except Gaza which would be conditional on Hezbollah’s withdrawal to northern Litani and the dismantling of military structure near the border, according to Sky News Arabia.
White House said the US continues to have discussions with Israel on its response to the Iranian attack. It was separately reported that the White House said despite the fighting, they are working with Israel and Lebanon to define a process for a return to ceasefire negotiations,according to Asharq News
US officials cited by NBC do not believe that Israel has made a final decision on the details of the response to Iran and discussions with Tel Aviv included Washington providing intelligence support or even launching air strikes. However, Washington has not decided on any action despite its intention to support Israel’s right to defend itself and Israel did not inform Washington of plans to retaliate against Iran.
US officials feared that Israel will implement its response to Iran during the planned Israeli Defence Minister Gallant’s visit to Washington although the visit has since been postponed.
Israeli aggression targeted a residential building in Syria’s Damascus with injuries reported, according to Syrian state news agency. Furthermore, NYT also reported that Israel raided an apartment building near the Iranian embassy in Syria which targeted a senior member of Hezbollah involved in arms smuggling, citing Israeli officials.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked with drones a vital target in the north of the occupied territories, according to Al Jazeera.
Iran told Gulf states it would be unacceptable if they allowed their airspace to be used against Iran, according to Reuters.
OTHER
North Korea’s army said it is to completely cut off roads and railways connected to South Korea from October 9th, according to KCNA.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
UK Chancellor Reeves is pushing ahead with plans to borrow billions of pounds extra for infrastructure investment despite concerns about an increasing cost of UK government debt, with Reeves likely to free up GBP 10bln-20bln worth of borrowing room for capital investment by excluding the losses incurred by the state from the BoE’s previous asset purchase programs when calculating debt, according to The Guardian.
ECB’s Nagel said inflation is on the decline but must remain vigilant due to high core readings, while Nagel also commented that he is open to an October rate cut.
ECB’s Stournaras sees the case for two more rate cuts in the Eurozone this year and further easing in 2025, while he said inflation could be on track to meet the ECB’s target in H1 2025, according to FT.
EU is to robustly challenge at the WTO level the announced imposition of provisional anti-dumping measures by China on imports of Brandy from the EU and is to assess all possibilities to offer appropriate support to EU producers from situations of market disturbance, or threat thereof.
Italy’s Economy Minister said the budget plan fully complies with requirements set under new EU stability pact rules.
2 JAPAN
JAPAN/YEN
END
3. CHINA
China’s stock market in a mess as real estate plummets:
(zerohedge)
China Stocks Crash Most Since Covid As Desperate Investors Bet On Saturday MoF Bazooka Announcement
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 10:05 AM
One day after Hong Kong stocks crashed the most since Lehman even as Chinese A-shares jumped to catch up after a weeklong holiday, on Wednesday China’s mainland stocks ended a stimulus-induced winning streak with a thud as questions swirled over how far the authorities are willing to go to support the sluggish economy and as anticipation for stimulus faded.
The benchmark CSI 300, which measures large-market-cap stocks listed in Shenzhen and Shanghai, crashed 7.05% from Tuesday to close at 3,955.98, its first loss in 11 sessions and its worst day since February 2020, when COVID-19 paralyzed China.
Worse, the tech-focused ChiNext fell over 10% on Wednesday, the biggest single-day decrease on record, while the STAR 50 dropped 2.55%.
Close to 3 trillion yuan ($420 billion) worth of mainland stocks exchanged hands, on par with Tuesday’s record turnover.
Chinese shares had been on a tear since Sept. 24, just days after we correctly predicted that a Chinese bazooka was imminent…
… sparked by interest rate cuts and central bank initiatives to usher billions of dollars into the markets. But a fresh policy announcement on Tuesday by the NDRC, China’s central planning coordinator, stopped well short of the big fiscal stimulus package many had been hoping would lift the economy out of its debt-deflation spiral.
Despite that disappointment, Tuesday still ranked among the best days ever for mainland stock indexes as stocks caught up after a week-long holiday. But as we reported yesterday, Hong Kong shares plunged sharply the same day, closing down 9.41% – wiping out a 9% gain they had accumulated during a weeklong National Day break on the mainland. And then mainland markets followed with their own Wednesday swoon.
Indeed, while Hong Kong and mainland markets moved in opposite directions on Tuesday, they were fully aligned on Wednesday, when the former’s Hang Seng Index closing 1.38% lower on the day at 20,637.24. That put it just a tad higher than its close on Sept. 27, three days after the first big move in the government’s latest round of stimulus. In other words, easy come, easy go and as usual, Jim Cramer top-ticked the move .
Chinese brokerage CITIC and Alibaba Health led the HSI declines, falling 8.2% and 7.08%, respectively. Investors took profits from health-related stocks, with Biotech company Imeik Technology Development dropping the most out of the CSI 300 components, down 18.4%. Shenyang Xingqi Pharmaceutical, which is in the ChiNext index, dropped 20%.
In another sign of investors taking a more aligned view, the Hang Seng Stock Connect China AH Premium Index dropped 2.95% on Wednesday after surging the previous day, suggesting a narrowing divergence between the two markets.
Still, Beijing isn’t going to go down without a fight and China’s regulatory bodies indicated another round of eagerness to shore up investor confidence when the Ministry of Finance announced on Wednesday that it will brief reporters on Saturday about “intensifying countercyclical adjustment of fiscal policy to promote high-quality economic development”, stoking expectations for another stimulus revelation.
In a note published late in the day, Morgan Stanley economists said the ministry’s “press conference on Oct. 12 is Beijing’s second chance to convince the market that its reflation pivot is back on firmer footing after the Oct. 8 undershoot — but the bar is high.”
Amusingly, several major banks such as Goldman Sachs upgraded their assessments of China’s markets in response to the recent rally, and Goldman went overweight just in time to mark the peak, something we warned about on Monday.
Goldman Hikes S&P Price Target, Cuts Recession Odds And Raises China To Overweight https://t.co/RdCpwxVovi
Meanwhile, there are growing rumblings about fundamental issues in the economy — including a prolonged property crisis, debt risks and weak consumption — and a perceived lack of determination on the part of authorities to address them.
UBS’s global wealth management CIO said in a note on Wednesday that it expects more volatility in China equities until more concrete support measures come into view. The bank recommends investors pick individual stocks rather than “aggressively chasing market rallies.”
Benjamin Bennett, head of investment strategy for Asia at Legal & General Investment Management, called the Chinese stock rally “overdone.”
Skeptics point to Tuesday’s announcement by the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning body, which promised to speed up the issuance of special-purpose bonds by local governments but did not offer solutions to deflationary pressure.
“I’d be surprised if the stimulus is enough to reignite the property sector,” Bennett said. “I also don’t think policymakers want to reflate the debt bubble. And maybe yesterday’s press conference was designed to temper equity investor expectations. Volatility will stay high for now, and we’ll see more large daily swings, but I’m happy to stay on the sidelines for this one.”
And so, after two days of selling, the disillusioned market now turns its hopes to the just announced Ministry of Finance press conference on Saturday at 10am local (Fri 10pm ET). Goldman’s Asia traders note that while yesterday’s NDRC presser was perceived as lackluster, primarily by foreign investors, their conversations suggested local investors have understood that only the MOF can announce sizable stimulus packages. In addition, they felt the fact that the NDRC’s RMB200bn package is to be used just over the next 2-3 months into year-end was underappreciated by the foreign investor base.
SocGen agreed with Goldman in downplaying the disappointment, and writes that the NDRC briefing yesterday was clearly disappointing for the market, “but in our view the expectation was misplaced because the NDRC, as a policy coordinator, doesn’t have the authority over fiscal decisions. The MoF announced today that it will hold a briefing this Saturday morning. The chance of getting more ideas on (the first installment of) the fiscal stimulus is certainly better there, but we still caution that investors should keep the expectation in check for the size of the fiscal stimulus. So what can or cannot we expect? And more importantly, what really matters?”
Which brings up the next catalyst: Saturday’s MOF announcement, where questions are already swirling: Will we get a big number on the fiscal stimulus? According to SocGen, “Maybe still not.” Here is the French bank’s rationale:
For this year, additional support measures <RMB1tn can take place without increasing this year’s bond issuance quota, as the government can tap into past fiscal savings and use un-utilised bond quotas in the past. For a higher amount, the approval of the Standing Committee of NPC is required. But, the NPC meeting will most likely only take place in late October (possibly around 20th). So, it is quite possible that the Saturday briefing can disappoint again, given that markets now seem to expect something between RMB1-3tn – seemingly coming off from RMB3-5tn before/during the National Holiday week.
That said, if one wants to stay hopeful, we do think that the joint meeting between the PBoC and MoF on CGB trading today is quite interesting. Even if the first batch of stimulus might turn out to be limited, the closer coordination on CGB liquidity looks to be a hint of some more sizeable supply pipeline ahead.
What can we expect this Saturday? SocGen answers:
Confirmation that the fiscal policy will be redirected to facilitate rebalancing to domestic demand. The Politburo meeting in September clearly signaled the shift from supply-side to demand-side, pledging to stabilise the housing sector, promote consumption and income of low-to-middle income groups and support employment. Given these, the MoF should further confirm the direction by highlighting areas of more spending such as stepping up fiscal transfers from central government to local governments, increasing subsidies for companies to increase employment, raising unemployment insurance payments, extending the policies during the pandemic, and even better, cash handouts to families and additional funding to resolve local government debt, as reported by Reuters previously.
Forward guidance on more CGB issuance and/or a bigger deficit ahead. We think it is very unlikely for Beijing to commit to one super-sized fiscal stimulus (CNY5-10tn) in one go. It is almost certain that the MoF will not communicate an explicit number for the 2025 budget. What is more realistic and also sensible is a commitment to fixing the structural issues and the willingness to keep topping up fiscal efforts.
In conclusion, now that the latest China rally has reversed, expect a very nervous market on edge until this weekend when the MoF will either double down on stimulus jawboning – and actually reveal firm plans of what it will do – or the bottom will fall out of both the market and the economy, forcing Beijing to do that much more, up to and including QE (see “China Must Do QE Now, “Or It Will End Up In A Bigger Hole In 12 Months“”), to prevent all out economic catastrophe.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
FRANCE/ROMANIA
They are nuts!!
Paris Preps For WWIII: 1000s Of French Soldiers To Arrive In Romania For Simulated Combat With Russia
The next year will be crucial for the French army, which has undergone a major transformation in recent years to prepare for a possible conflict with Russia, reports Politico.
Next May, thousands of French soldiers will take part in a large-scale military exercise in Romania. The purpose of the exercise is to assess how quickly they can reach NATO’s eastern flank if necessary, which is crucial if Russian President Vladimir Putin were to attack an allied NATO country.
Hungarian news outlet Magyar Nemzet points out that the moves from France show “Paris is preparing for a world war. The pro-war French president has already come up with alarming plans in recent months, which could clearly lead to a war between NATO and Russia. As reported earlier, Emmanuel Macron did not rule out sending troops to Ukraine either.”
Regardless of the potential threats of an open conflict with Russia, NATO seems to be preparing for that possibility.
“We used to play war. Now, there’s a designated enemy, and we train with people with whom we’d actually go to war,” said General Bertrand Toujouse.
Such military exercises “are a strategic signal,” he added
In recent years, French ground forces have undergone a “profound transformation” to prepare for a conflict as intense as the war in Ukraine.
The main challenge is for French forces to reach Romania in such a short time.
“There is still no military Schengen, and we need to decisively improve military mobility in Europe,” said General Pierre-Éric Guillot.
The first troop deployment in Romania in 2022 has been hampered by bureaucratic hurdles, border control procedures and inadequate trains for transporting military equipment. The affected countries have since worked to eliminate these problems.
“We may still be hampered by a few customs measures, but we’ve made a lot of progress in diversifying our routes,” Guillot told reporters.
Hezbollah’s call for a ceasefire today shows the terror group is on the back foot and “getting battered,” US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller tells a regular briefing.
Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem said in a televised address the Iran-backed group’s capabilities are intact and its fighters are pushing back Israeli ground incursions, despite the “painful blows” inflicted by Israel in recent weeks.
Qassem said the group supports the efforts of Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, to secure a ceasefire, without providing further details on any conditions demanded by Hezbollah.
“For a year, you had the world calling for this ceasefire, you had Hezbollah refusing to agree to one, and now that Hezbollah is on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire,” Miller says.
“We continue to ultimately want a diplomatic solution to this conflict,” Miller says.
end
Israel targets a building frequented by the Iranian IRGC
(JerusalemPost)
ISRAEL/SYRIA/IRCG
Israel targets Damascus building frequented by IRGC, Hezbollah officials – report
The attack reportedly took place during a meeting between senior Iranian and Hezbollah officials.
By SAM HALPERNOCTOBER 8, 2024 20:27Updated: OCTOBER 8, 2024 22:14
Rescuers work at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a residential building in the Mezzah suburb west of the Syrian capital Damascus, Syria’s state news agency reported, Syria October 8, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/FIRAS MAKDESI)
Israel targeted a building in the Mazzeh Al Qadimeh neighborhood in Damascus, Syria, on Tuesday evening, a correspondent for the Syrian state-run Syrian Arab News Agency (SANA) reported.
The Iranian embassy is located in the Mazzeh Al Qadimeh neighborhood.
“Israeli aggression targeted a residential building in the Mazzeh neighborhood in Damascus,” the correspondent claimed, adding that initial reports had come in indicating the casualties had occurred due to the event.
Seven people were killed in the attack, including two non-Syrian citizens, Saudi news agency Al-Hadath reported, citing the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah now realize that they are losing badly and thus they are now backing for a ceasefire
(JerusalemPost)
Hezbollah backs ceasefire attempts as Israel continues to target its leadership
Qassem mentioned in particular the efforts of Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to restore calm.
By TOVAH LAZAROFF, REUTERSOCTOBER 8, 2024 19:57Updated: OCTOBER 8, 2024 22:56
Hezbollah said it supported efforts to secure a ceasefire with Israel as the IDF continued to target its top leadership and the two armies sharply increased their bombardments.
“After the issue of a ceasefire takes shape, and once diplomacy can achieve it, all of the other details can be discussed and decisions can be taken,” Hezbollah deputy leader Naim Qassem said on Tuesday. “If the enemy [Israel] continues its war, then the battlefield will decide.”
Qassem mentioned in particular the efforts of Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to restore calm.
“We support the political activity being led by Berri under the title of a ceasefire,” the deputy leader said in his 30-minute televised address.
It was not clear whether this signaled any change in stance, after a year in which the group has said it is fighting to support both Hamas and the Palestinian people in their war with Israel and would not stop without a ceasefire in Gaza.
Naim Qassem, Hezbollah’s second in command, addresses the crowd at the funeral of Ibrahim Aqil, the Hezbollah Radwan Forces commander, and Mahmoud Hamad, another Hezbollah commander, both killed in an Israeli airstrike on a residential building in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh in Beirut, Lebanon. (credit: COURTNEY BONNEAU/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
Qassem says the conflict with Israel was a war about who cries first
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller clarified that Israel has not accepted a ceasefire. The word ceasefire was only meaningful, he explained, if it included an agreement for Hezbollah to pull away from Israel’s northern border and back to the Litani River, as set out under the United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701 that detailed the ceasefire terms ending the Second Lebanon War.
“Obviously, we don’t trust Hezbollah,” Miller said. “But you look at what Hezbollah said in 2006 when 1701 was adopted by the UN Security Council… that they would implement 1701 – and they blew through all of their commitments.
“So there is an obvious lack of faith in Hezbollah’s ability to do what it said in 2006 and do what it’s saying it would do now, which is agree to an actual ceasefire that would allow Israeli civilians to return home and allow Lebanese civilians to return home,” the State Department spokesperson said.
Qassem’s statement about a ceasefire, Miller said, shows that Israel has been successful in weakening the group’s military power.
For a year Hezbollah wouldn’t talk about a ceasefire and now that it’s “on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire. I think it’s not surprising given the situation they find themselves in,” he said.
Speaking from an undisclosed location, Qassem said the conflict with Israel was a war about who cries first, and Hezbollah would not be the first to cry. The group’s capabilities were intact despite “painful blows” from Israel.
“Dozens of cities are within range of the resistance’s missiles. We assure you that our capabilities are fine,” he said.
His televised address was shown on the same day that Israel announced it had killed Hashem Safieddine, a top Hezbollah official who was set to replace the Lebanese-based terrorist group’s leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Israel assassinated Nasrallah at the end of September just two days after the United States and France had proposed a 21-day ceasefire to allow an opportunity for a diplomatic resolution to the year-long IDF-Hezbollah war along Israel’s border just as Israel increased the level of its military activity against it.
The assassination and the expansion of the IDF-Hezbollah war placed those efforts on the back burner even as the international community and US President Joe Biden continued to call for diplomacy.
The United States clarified Tuesday that it sought the“right time” for such a ceasefire agreement.
“We’re going to be having regular consultations with the Israelis, with the Lebanese, and others regarding the right moment to — to press for such an agreement,” White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters on Monday.
“We are in regular conversations” with the Israelis and the Lebanese “on this particular issue,” she said. “We need to have some space, some diplomatic dialogue in order to get there.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued an English-language video in which he appealed to the Lebanese people to rise up against Hezbollah, as he confirmed that Israel had killed Safieddine, who has not been seen since October 3.
“We have degraded Hezbollah’s capabilities; we took out thousands of terrorists, including Nasrallah himself, and Nasrallah’s replacement, and the replacement of his replacement,” Netanyahu stated.
“Today, Hezbollah is weaker than it has been for many, many years,” he stressed in an unusual English language video.
The prime minister called on the Lebanese people to save their country by ousting the Iranian proxy group Hezbollah, a non-state actor that he explained had destroyed Lebanon, which had once been known as the “Pearl” of the Middle East.
“So, what happened to Lebanon? A gang of tyrants and terrorists destroyed it. That’s what happened,” he said.
“Lebanon was once known for its tolerance, for its beauty; today, it’s a place of chaos, a place of war,” Netanyahu stated.
“You have an opportunity to save Lebanon before it falls into the abyss of a long war that will lead to destruction and suffering as we see in Gaza. It doesn’t have to be that way,” he said.
“I say to you, the people of Lebanon: Free your country from Hezbollah so that this war can end; free your country from Hezbollah so that your country can prosper again so that future generations of Lebanese and Israeli children will know neither war nor bloodshed, but will finally live together in peace.”
Netanyahu spoke as Israel has significantly expanded the scope of its military activity against Hezbollah in Lebanon in recent weeks.
France and Qatar delivered urgent humanitarian aid to Lebanon on Tuesday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said, as Paris pushed for broader humanitarian efforts and a ceasefire in the country.
“If we don’t do anything, then Lebanon tomorrow could resemble what Syria has become,” Barrot told lawmakers in parliament: “a hub of instability for smuggling, terrorism and a point of departure for a large migration of civilians seeking refuge in Europe.”
French and Qatari military planes delivered some 27 metric tons of medicines and basic necessities, including blankets and hygiene kits, diplomatic sources said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
The French Foreign Minister called on both Israel and Hezbollah to accept the 21-day ceasefire proposal to “give peace and negotiations a chance to guarantee the sovereignty of Lebanon and security for Israel.”
France is also working to put together a conference on Lebanon soon that will center around three pillars: humanitarian aid, reinforcing the Lebanese army, and discussing the ongoing political vacuum in the country, Barrot said.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah had a tunnel into Israel as they were planning a HAMAS like penetration raid into Israel
(JerusalemPost)
IDF destroys Hezbollah tunnel that crossed into Israel, steps up airstrikes
Barrage of 25 rockets fired at Kiryat Shmona, launchers used in earlier Haifa attack destroyed; military says strike killed chief of Hezbollah’s logistical HQ
By Emanuel Fabian Follow8 October 2024, 11:08 pmUpdated at 12:18 am
The inside of a Hezbollah tunnel that crossed into Israel, in a video released by the IDF on October 8, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israeli forces have demolished a small Hezbollah tunnel that crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon, the military announced Tuesday, as its ground operation north of the border continued to target the terror group’s infrastructure.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, the 20-meter-long tunnel had no exit in Israeli territory, and its path crossed the UN-recognized Blue Line by about 10 meters, in the western sector of the border, near the Lebanese village of Marwahin, just across from the Israeli community of Zar’it.
No towns were ever under any threat by the tunnel, the military said
According to Israeli military assessments, Hezbollah began the construction of the tunnel about two years ago, and it was quickly identified by the IDF. The military said it wanted to keep tabs on the tunnel as it was being built, rather than reveal to Hezbollah that it had intelligence of the underground route.
The tunnel was physically located by commandos during raids in southern Lebanon several months ago, though the military stressed that it was previously known to the IDF and it had full control over the area.
The military said troops searched the tunnel and found weapons inside, including explosives and anti-tank missiles.
Now that the IDF is operating in southern Lebanon with larger forces, it said it took the opportunity to demolish the tunnel.
According to the IDF, there are no other tunnels known to cross into Israel from Lebanon.
An image released by the IDF on October 8, 2024, showing the location of a Hezbollah tunnel that crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon and has been demolished. (Israel Defense Forces)
Meanwhile, the IDF said Hezbollah launched some 180 rockets from Lebanon at northern Israel on Tuesday, including a barrage of some 25 projectiles fired in the evening at Kiryat Shmona.
According to the military, some of the rockets were intercepted, while others impacted in the area.
There were no reports of injuries or major damage.
According to military figures, Hezbollah launched some 180 rockets from Lebanon at northern Israel on Tuesday.
Some of the rocket launchers used by Hezbollah to fire 105 projectiles at Haifa earlier in the day were struck by an Israeli Air Force drone, the military said, adding that it carried out several strikes against Hezbollah buildings and anti-tank missile launch posts in southern Lebanon over the past day.
A man examines his damaged apartment that was hit by a Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon, in Kiryat Yam, October 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
After the barrage, the IDF Home Front Command issued stricter guidelines in several cities near Haifa, preventing schools from operating in Kiryat Ata, Kiryat Bialik, Kiryat Yam, and Kiryat Motzkin.
Schools will stay open in Haifa itself, provided that a bomb shelter can be reached quickly enough, the IDF said.
Airstrike kills chief of Hezbollah’s logistics center
Overnight, the IDF said it struck a weapons depot and another Hezbollah site in Beirut, and Monday night, the military said a drone strike was carried out against a school in southern Lebanon’s Tayr Harfa, where a group of Hezbollah operatives were spotted.
IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Tuesday that 50 operatives and at least six top commanders in Hezbollah’s so-called Southern Front were killed in a wide wave of airstrikes in southern Lebanon the previous day.
The Southern Front, responsible for the terror group’s military activity in south Lebanon, was commanded by Ali Karaki, who was killed alongside Hezbollah terror chief Hassan Nasrallah last month.
“The terrorists we killed yesterday are the commanders and terrorists who were set to — on the day that the order would be given — infiltrate Israel, into towns in the north, to murder and kidnap Israeli civilians,” Hagari said.
The IDF named one of those killed as the head of Hezbollah’s logistical headquarters, Suhail Hussein Husseini.
He was also a member of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, the terror group’s top military body.
“Husseini played a crucial role in weapon transfers between Iran and Hezbollah and was responsible for distributing the advanced weaponry among Hezbollah’s units, overseeing both the transportation and allocation of these arms,” the IDF said.
The military said that he was “responsible for the budgeting and logistical management of Hezbollah’s most sensitive projects, including the organization’s war plans and other special operations, such as coordinating terrorist attacks against the State of Israel from Lebanon and Syria.”
The military said the headquarters also included Hezbollah’s R&D, which is responsible for the manufacture of precision-guided missiles.
On the ground, troops of the Golani Brigade captured a Hezbollah fighting position in southern Lebanon, located in an olive grove and an adjacent home, the IDF said.
A mortar launcher is seen at Hezbollah fighting position in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo issued on October 8, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The military said the troops found a primed mortar aimed at Israel, ammunition, tunnel infrastructure, and resting areas for the Hezbollah operatives.
Inside the home, the IDF said the soldiers found a cache of weapons, including firearms, anti-tank missiles, and other equipment.
The IDF said the equipment and site would have been used to ambush Israeli soldiers and attack towns in northern Israel.
450 Hezbollah operatives killed in week of operations
According to fresh IDF assessments on Tuesday, some 450 Hezbollah operatives had been killed by troops and airstrikes amid the past week of ground operations. Four IDF divisions are currently operating in Lebanese villages along the border, the latest being deployed on Monday night.
The IDF’s 98th Division summarized a week of operations in southern Lebanon, reporting that its troops had killed over 200 Hezbollah operatives in several villages adjacent to the Israeli border.
The elite formation of paratrooper and commando units, joined by the 7th Armored Brigade and elite Yahalom combat engineering unit, were the first Israeli forces to enter Lebanon when the official ground operations began on September 30.
The IDF said the division had demolished several tunnels and located hundreds of weapons in villages close to the border, which were intended to have been used by Hezbollah to attack northern Israel.
More than 100 tons of explosives have been used by the division to demolish Hezbollah sites above and below ground, according to military sources.
The division, which previously battled Hamas in Gaza for months, said Hezbollah is a different enemy from Hamas, but not necessarily stronger.
The division has found Hezbollah to be a far more organized fighting force than Hamas, but largely operating above ground and not in tunnels like the terror group in Gaza. Hezbollah also has more advanced weapons and better fortifications, the division has identified.
Still, the division said it has the upper hand and has been successful with its operations.
Last week, six members of the Egoz Commando Unit were killed during a fierce battle with Hezbollah operatives, and another three paratroopers were killed in separate incidents that same day.
Separately Tuesday evening, in Syria, an alleged Israeli airstrike on Damascus targeted a top Hezbollah official in the terror group’s Unit 4400, the Saudi news outlet Al-Hadath reported.
Unit 4400 is tasked with delivering weapons from Iran and its proxies to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Syria’s state-run SANA news agency, citing a military source, reported that seven civilians were killed and 11 others were wounded in the strike, which hit a residential and commercial building in the Mezzeh district of the capital.
🚨
استهداف شقة في الدور السفلي بـ حي المزه بالقرب من السفارة الايرانية 🇮🇷 – دمشق المحتلة – سوريا و انباء عن عملية اغتيال شخصية كبيرة🔥 pic.twitter.com/vuT6Ioweqj
In addition to the casualties, the strike caused “significant material damage,” it said. It added that rescue forces are still working to extract people from under the rubble.
Since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2011, Israel — which rarely comments on individual strikes in Syria — is believed to have carried out hundreds of strikes, mainly targeting army positions and Iran-backed fighters including from Hezbollah.
Hezbollah began launching missiles at Israel exactly a year ago in support of its ally Hamas following the attack on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in which some 1,200 people were killed and 251 were taken hostage.
Hezbollah’s top leaders have repeatedly stated over the last year that the group would not stop its fire until a Gaza ceasefire was reached, but that appeared to change Tuesday after deputy leader Naim Qassem expressed support for efforts to reach an end to the fighting without mentioning the war in the enclave.
Troops of the 98th Division operate in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo issued on October 8, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
Israel stepped up its strikes on Hezbollah in recent weeks as it seeks to push the terror group away from the border in accordance with a 2006 UN resolution.
The escalation followed Israel’s decision last month to make the return of northern residents to their homes an official war aim. Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, out of fear Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack.
Attacks on northern Israel have resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians in Israel. In addition, 33 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ground operation launched in southern Lebanon in late September.
Two soldiers in northern Israel have been killed in a drone attack from Iraq, and there have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
Hezbollah has named 516 members — including Nasrallah — who have been killed by Israel during the war, mostly in Lebanon but also some in Syria. Another 94 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier, and dozens of civilians have also been killed.
These numbers have not been consistently updated since Israel began its new offensive against Hezbollah in September, including the ground operation in which the military says at least 450 Hezbollah operatives have been killed.
AFP contributed to this REPORT
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
Ron Paul states that the neocons will get their Iran war
(RonPaul)
Ron Paul: American Neocons Get Their Iran War As Congress Sleeps
Tuesday, Oct 08, 2024 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Ron Paul
Over the weekend, the Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), General Michael Kurilla, arrived in Israel to “coordinate” with the Israeli military and plan a military strike against Iran. Think about that for a moment: one of the highest-ranking officers in the US military is planning a war in a foreign country against another foreign country which will be fueled by American weapons, American intelligence, and American tax dollars.
Did that foreign country – Iran – attack the United States or threaten Americans? No, it did not. What did Iran do to warrant a CENTCOM commander bringing the weight of the US military into play to plan a war – possibly WWIII? It retaliated against Israeli airstrikes including the assignation of a Hamas leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran.
It was the Israeli missile attack on Tehran – an unprecedented event – that set off this chain of escalation, but few would know if from media coverage. This war fever between Israel and Iran not only has nothing to do with us, but our increasing involvement actually hurts our national interests in the region.
After a deadly and futile three-year proxy war against Russia in Ukraine, the last thing we need is another war in the Middle East, especially against Iran. But make no mistake, war is what we are getting. This Administration has even offered to “compensate” Israel with even more weapons and diplomatic support if they hit targets of the US choosing and avoid others in Iran.
Imagine if China sent military officials to Iran to pay Tehran to make sure some US targets were struck and others avoided. Would we consider it Iran’s war against us, or China’s war against us? Both?
Has Congress declared war on Iran or even authorized the war? No.
Has this Administration explained to us why Americans suffering after the catastrophic Hurricane Helene are on their own because we need to spend billions on a war that is none of our business?No. The neocons have wanted this war for decades and for them it’s always America last.
This war will make us less free, less safe, and much poorer. There will be no benefits at all, only downside.
Will the Biden/Harris Administration greenlight Israel taking out Iran’s oil production and other energy facilities? That would mean the average American already suffering under high inflation and an economic downturn would be paying orders of magnitude higher for not just gasoline, but everything. Consider the cost of shipping and trucking and every aspect of our lives that depends on world energy prices. It would be an economic calamity for Americans for the benefit of a foreign country. This is what they call patriotism?
If @CENTCOM is helping "coordinate Israel’s retaliation" on Iran, that is a direct violation of US law.
Unless Congress authorizes US military action, Pentagon cannot "coordinate" the "military forces of any foreign country" if "such forces will become engaged in hostilities" https://t.co/hLEkf6FgYUpic.twitter.com/k97Rr53XqP
We are sleepwalking into a catastrophic war, lulled into compliance by non-stop media propaganda. More billions will be drained from our economy and many more innocent lives will be lost in this madness. Almost a quarter of a century later we still have not learned the lessons of 9/11.
When we go abroad wreaking havoc and destruction on foreign populations who have not harmed us we create enemies who will seek revenge. We harm ourselves. And we risk blowback. The time to oppose this impending war is NOW!
Israel Air Force (IAF) jets struck on Monday various Hezbollah underground headquarters on its southern front, eliminating terrorists who were planning to attack Israel’s northern communities, IDF Spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari said on Tuesday.
Hagari noted that the terrorists were responsible for carrying out Hezbollah’s “conquer the Galilee” plan.
Using precise intelligence from the Intelligence Directorate, in conjunction with the Northern Command and Operations Directorate, 100 jets struck Hezbollah’s Natzer, Bader, and Aziz units, along with its Radwan forces.
IDF kills six commanders
Some 50 terrorists were eliminated, Hagari noted, including six commanders.
The terrorists who were killed had advanced terror attacks against Israel.
Among the commanders killed, the military noted the head of the Hezbollah Radwan forces attack sector in Bint Jbeil, Ahmad Hassan Nazal, chief of the Ghajar sector, Hussein Talal Kamal, the departing head of the Ghajar sector, head of operations in the Ghajar sector, Mahmoud Mus Karnib, artillery commander of the Bint Jbeil sector, Ali Ahmad Ismail, and the artillery chief of the Ghajar sector, Abdullah Ali Dakik.
The IAF attacked approximately 95 targets in total, in addition to some 30 targets belonging to the terror group’s medium-range rocket unit in southern Lebanon.
END
ISRAEL/Hezbollah
‘They called us crazy!’: Hezbollah tunnel to Israel ignites outrage among border communities
The group’s construction of tunnels along Israel’s northern border is part of its strategy to conduct cross-border raids, similar to Hamas’s tactics in Gaza.
“Everyone said we were imagining it,” said Sara and Zion Arbiv, longtime residents of Moshav Zar’it, located near Israel’s northern border, after the IDF uncovered a Hezbollah-built tunnel that ran dangerously close to their community on Tuesday. “We’ve stopped being the country’s human shield,” they added.
Gabi Naaman, head of the Shlomi Local Council, is now demanding a full investigation into what he described as a severe security failure, questioning, “Who will be held accountable for this negligence?”
Possibility of armed terrorists infiltrating Israel from the north
The tunnel, dug by the Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorist group, had the potential to allow armed militants to infiltrate Israel. In recent years, Hezbollah has constructed numerous tunnels and amassed weapons near the Lebanese border as part of its strategy to launch attacks on Israeli communities. The IDF discovered the tunnel and neutralized it before it could be used, but the discovery has left residents deeply unsettled.
“This is no surprise to us,” Sara and Zion Arbiv told Walla News. “We’ve been warning the authorities for years. No one can claim we didn’t try to raise awareness—we reached out to local officials and even to the government.”
The Arbivs, who have four children and four grandchildren, described the frustration of living under constant threat. “We were always told we didn’t understand or that we were imagining things.”
An Israeli anti missile system intercept rockets fired from Lebanon, near the Israeli border with Lebanon, northern Israel, September 4, 2024. (credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
For the residents of Zar’it, the discovery of the tunnel underscores the daily dangers they face. “Whoever thought that we would return home without the IDF providing an impenetrable barrier needs to reconsider,” the Arbivs added. “We will no longer serve as the state’s human shield.”
The couple also expressed relief that the tunnel was found before Hezbollah could carry out an attack, particularly in light of the coordinated assault from Gaza by Hamas on October 7. “It’s a miracle they didn’t invade from the north on the same day. Had they done so, the outcome could have been catastrophic.”
Shimon Guetta, head of the Ma’ale Yosef Regional Council, which oversees Zar’it, echoed these sentiments. “We warned in the past about suspicious noises and potential dangers, but the border remained exposed. While the discovery of the tunnel saved lives, it doesn’t erase the long-standing failure to secure this area.”
The October 7 attack by Hamas has left residents of northern Israel fearful of a similar assault from Hezbollah. The Iran-backed group has a long history of threatening Israel’s northern border, and communities like Zar’it live in constant anxiety about future infiltrations.
Why is Israel fighting Hezbollah?
Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist organization by both Israel and the US, is a Shiite militant group based in southern Lebanon and supported by Iran.
The group’s construction of tunnels along Israel’s northern border is part of its strategy to conduct cross-border raids, similar to Hamas’s tactics in Gaza. These tunnels pose a direct threat to Israeli civilians living near the border.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH WEDNESDAY MORNING;
Yet Israel tries not to hit civilians!
Two dead, three wounded after rockets pummel northern Israel
The Israel Air Force intercepted some of the rockets, while others fell in open areas, the military added.
Israeli security forces at the site where a missile fired from Lebanon hit a garage in the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona, October 4, 2024.(photo credit: AYAL MARGOLIN/FLASH90)
Approximately 40 rockets were identified crossing from Lebanon towards Upper Galilee and Haifa Bay on Wednesday, killing two people in Kiryat Shmona, MDA announced.
The two killed were a man and a woman, Ynet reported.
The three wounded
The three wounded were treated by MDA paramedics in the Haifa Bay area.
All three of the wounded were hit by shrapnel, one of which is a 16-year-old in moderate condition, and another is approximately 50 years old and suffering from light wounds, MDA reported.
The Israel Air Force intercepted some of the rockets, while others fell in open areas, the military added.
A burned home in Kiryat Shmona, one of hundreds of places impacted by Hezbollah’s attacks over the last 11 months. (credit: SETH J. FRANTZMAN)
Five firefighter crews from the Galilee and Golan areas were deployed to Kiryat Shmona to extinguish fires that started as a result of missiles that hit the town.
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
WATCH: IAF targets Hezbollah weapons, intelligence facilities in Dahieh area
The Israel Air Force conducted several targeted airstrikes against Hezbollah weapons and intelligence facilities in the Dahieh area in Beirut, Lebanon, the IDF reported on Wednesday.
IDF infographic showing a Hezbollah weapons production facility embedded in a populated area in Dahieh, Beirut, Lebanon. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Additionally, the IDF announced that on Tuesday, IAF aircraft had struck an underground Hezbollah drone storage facility and launchers.
‘License to kill’: Lebanon must believe Israel will conquer without resolution, MidEast expert says
“I want the Lebanese to think, believe, and understand that if there’s no solution to the problem in southern Lebanon, we will conquer all of Lebanon,” Professor Amatzia Baram said.
By PELED ARBELIOCTOBER 9, 2024 10:44
IDF troops raise the Israeli flag in southern Lebanon. October 9, 2024.(photo credit: SCREENSHOT/VIA SECTION 24A OF THE COPYRIGHT ACT)
Professor Amatzia Baram, professor emeritus for Middle East history and director of the Center for Iraq Studies at the University of Haifa, said that the Lebanese people believing Israel will conquer Lebanon if a ceasefire deal is not reached is crucial to achieving a resolution.
Baram’s comments came during a recent interview with Maariv discussing reports in Lebanon that residents fear Israel will not leave the country.
“I don’t know if we spread this idea, and if we did—good for us. Or maybe the Lebanese simply have vivid imaginations, thinking that if it happened once, it will happen again,” Baram said. “I want the Lebanese to think, believe, and understand that if there’s no solution to the problem in southern Lebanon, we will conquer all of Lebanon. Or at least Beirut.
“I need the Lebanese, including the Shiites, to think this way. I believe we need to make it clear to the Lebanese that no one will return home. All of southern Lebanon is currently evacuating, up to the Awali River, which covers all of southern Lebanon. They need to believe they won’t return home unless there is an agreement. The goal is to apply pressure for a resolution.
A new force to replace UNIFIL
“But the other side of the equation is that we have no interest in staying in Lebanon, including southern Lebanon. The condition for our withdrawal is the establishment of an international force to replace UNIFIL, the current UN force.
Israeli soldiers hold an Israeli flag as they leave Lebanese territory during a second day of ceasefire during the Second Lebanon War, near the town of Menara August 15, 2006. (credit: REUTERS)
“This international force would include countries that have good relations with both Israel and Lebanon, such as France and Italy, among others. This force would have the same authority that, in James Bond mythology, he received from the queen, namely a ‘license to kill.’
“If such a force with a license to open fire is established, it would be stationed throughout southern Lebanon, from south of the Awali, not just south of the Litani River. This would be backed by a UN resolution similar to 1701.
“Under these conditions, Israel is willing to return to the international border, the blue line. If not, the Lebanese must believe that Israel might consider staying throughout Lebanon. This will create pressure in Lebanon to reach an agreement.
“Two simply fantastic things happened that I never thought would occur. First: Hezbollah has been significantly weakened. We can see that they can still launch rockets—we saw that yesterday here in Haifa—but they’ve been dramatically weakened.
Just as importantly, their prestige has been seriously damaged. People are less afraid of them today; they’re still cautious, but definitely less fearful. That’s the first thing.
“The second: Iran has been dramatically weakened, and we haven’t even hit them with the blow we’re expected to deliver.
“In Iran, you can see it everywhere—the regime is embarrassed, the regime is humiliated. We don’t know what happened to Esmail Qaani, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force, who is also responsible for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
We don’t know whether he was killed along with Hashem Safieddine in a bunker in Beirut or not. I think there’s more than a 50% chance that he was. But in Iran, everyone is asking—even a regime mouthpiece said, ‘We want to see him.’ In any case, they’ve already been humiliated.
“Two things need to be done in Lebanon today. First, we need to establish a new force with a license to kill throughout southern Lebanon, together with the Lebanese army, because we accept the Lebanese army.
The second thing is to go to the Lebanese parliament and finally elect a president who is not acceptable to Hezbollah.
There is a candidate: I can tell you that right now, he’s the chief of staff of the Lebanese army. With international support and the support of the parliament, this president can disarm Hezbollah.”
ISRAEL/THE REST OF THE MIDDLE EAST/COMMENTARY
Is a victory for Israel in the US’s best interests? – comment
A comparison with the Biden administration’s approach to its other ally caught in a brutal war may reveal ideological inconsistencies.
By NIMROD KORENOCTOBER 9, 2024 01:15
US PRESIDENT Joe Biden, Vice President Kamala Harris, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken: The concept of an Israeli victory does not feature as a declared objective of US foreign policy, possibly due to its overuse by Prime Minister Netanyahu, says the writer.(photo credit: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS)
One of the questions that turned out to be the most consequential in the debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump last month revolved around the policy of the United States in Ukraine.
In this context, Trump was asked whether he thought it was “in the US’s best interests for Ukraine to win this war” and replied that it was “in the US’s best interest to get this war finished. Negotiate a deal […] you have millions of people dead, and it could lead to World War III.” Exactly one week later, a pro-Ukrainian American activist attempted to assassinate him.
It is not unreasonable to propose that Trump’s remarks in the debate were interpreted as a betrayal and may have directly triggered the assassination attempt. Despite the catastrophic consequences of the war in Ukraine, the significant toll on human life, and the potential dangers of its escalation, the call for its conclusion is viewed by many as a concession on Ukraine’s democratic principles and sovereignty, as well as a surrender in the fight to defend the values of the free world.
It is widely recognized that Trump’s position on the conflict contrasts sharply with that of President Joe Biden, who asserts that Ukraine must be supported “to win this war and preserve its freedom,” as stated in his speech at the United Nations General Assembly.
There is seemingly a distinct contradiction between idealism (win the war) and pragmatism (end the war); between the victory and defeat of an aggressor who invaded a peaceful neighboring country and a diplomatic compromise that may require a concession of certain principles – yet would end the violence and devastation, the ongoing suffering of those displaced, and the jeopardy of the war spreading to other regions.
This is precisely what the US administration has been striving to accomplish through significant effort over the past year in addressing the war between Israel and the terrorist entities Hamas and Hezbollah and more recently the Islamic Republic of Iran.
U.S. President Joe Biden boards Air Force One, en route to Washington, D.C., at Dover Air Force Base in Dover, Delaware, U.S., September 29, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Anna Rose Layden)
The other ally
A comparison with the Biden administration’s approach to its other ally caught in a brutal war may reveal ideological inconsistencies.
In relation to the war in the Middle East, the concept of Israel’s victory does not feature as a declared objective of US foreign policy, with the term notably missing from the administration’s public statements – possibly due to its overuse by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
In this context, it is interesting to reflect on a possible answer to a parallel question that the vice president was not asked during the debate: “Is it in the US’s best interests for Israel to win the war?”
If Harris had been asked this question, she would likely have responded that American interests dictate that “this war must end and it must end immediately,” advocating for a ceasefire agreement, a stance she has previously expressed, echoed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Biden.
An analysis of the current administration’s stance on the two active conflicts, despite the numerous distinctions and unique circumstances surrounding each, may yield valuable insights. It could potentially uncover ineffective strategies in both situations concerning the objectives of achieving victory, concluding the wars, reducing human suffering, and pursuing diplomatic resolutions.
This situation is evident, particularly concerning the military strategies of the two leaders.
Netanyahu is justifiably criticized for “yielding to his religious extremist allies” and persisting in combat without a clear strategy for the “day after,” aside from the notion of “total victory.” However, it is essential to pause and ask what President Volodymyr Zelensky’s plan is for the “day after” in Ukraine. Furthermore, is the “victory plan” that Zelensky has proposed to Biden – defeating a nuclear superpower – more realistic, calculated, or prudent than Israel’s plan, which seeks to neutralize a local terrorist organization and deter its regional allies? One might question this.
Moreover, how should one interpret the perspective that posits that the sole barrier between a full-scale war and a new, peaceful Middle East is Israel’s unwillingness to conclude the war? Is this comparable to the staunch resistance to ending the war in Ukraine?
Many assert that should Israel agree to a deal with Hamas, assuming that this would immediately clear the path for the release of all hostages, enable the Palestinian Authority (PA) to assume governance over Gaza, allow Gulf forces to secure the Rafah crossing, suppress Hezbollah, foster normalization with Saudi Arabia, establish a Palestinian state coexisting peacefully with Israel, and lead to a nuclear accord with Iran.
However, upon examining the present circumstances, and despite the optimism surrounding the transformation of a crisis into an opportunity, it is difficult to overlook the notion that those who subscribe to this belief may also possess a tendency towards delusional extremism.
Considering the lack of success that the Biden administration has experienced in achieving its objectives during both conflicts, neither securing a victory for Ukraine nor negotiating a ceasefire for Israel (or preventing a multi-front war ), it may be an opportune moment to reconsider and possibly reassess the somewhat idealistic strategy that seeks a victory over Russia, a nation with an arsenal exceeding 5,000 nuclear missiles, as well as a reformed peaceful Middle East. A more pragmatic policy could focus on achieving more modest goals, such as alleviating human suffering.
This would involve endorsing a compromise based on lessons learned, admitting that the prospect of victory in Ukraine may be less attainable at this stage, and supporting a victory in Israel where it could lead to a rapid resolution of the war.
The writer is a political adviser and a member of the researchers forum of the Elyashar Center at the Ben-Zvi Institute in Jerusalem.
END
IAll’s fair in Lebanon war? When it comes to removing Hezbollah, Israeli experts say yes
Allegations of ‘forcible displacement’ of Lebanese civilians and disproportionate strikes on Hezbollah leaders do not match up with reality on the ground, according to academics
Cars sit in traffic as people flee the southern villages amid ongoing Israeli airstrikes, in Sidon, Lebanon, Monday, Sept. 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)
The Israeli military’s stepped-up campaign against Hezbollah has unsurprisingly drawn criticism that aspects of the offensive could violate key provisions of international law.
Accusations against the Israel Defense Forces have included allegations regarding the displacement of civilians, with hundreds of thousands forced to flee an intense bombing campaign in several parts of Lebanon and ground operations in villages near the Israeli border.
There have also been charges regarding the proportionality of Israel’s strikes on residences, with some questioning whether the estimated collateral damage is outweighed by the military gain of any given action.
The campaign first appeared to ramp up on the afternoons of September 17 and 18, when pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah members suddenly exploded, maiming thousands and reportedly killing some three dozen people, many of them Hezbollah members.
The blasts may have been the most legally fraught of Israel’s alleged actions, given the use of banned booby traps in a civilian setting with potential harm to innocent passersby.
However, Israel has not taken responsibility for the attack, and even its more conventional actions have drawn serious accusations.
A man examines his damaged apartment that was hit by a Hezbollah rocket fired from Lebanon, in Kiryat Yam, October 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Ariel Schalit)
Israel’s campaign against the terror group thus far has largely taken the form of a traditional military offensive, with air strikes targeting Hezbollah positions and weapons caches in south Lebanon and assassinating the Iran-backed terror group’s senior leadership.
The army has described its ground offensive, launched last week, as “limited, localized, and targeted ground raids,” even as it has sent four full divisions across the border, each comprised of thousands of troops.
On Sunday, United Nations’ refugee chief Filippo Grandi said airstrikes in Lebanon had violated international humanitarian law by hitting civilian infrastructure and killing civilians.
“Unfortunately, many instances of violations of international humanitarian law in the way the airstrikes are conducted that have destroyed or damaged civilian infrastructure, have killed civilians, have impacted humanitarian operations,” he told media while visiting Beirut.
According to Lebanon, over 1,400 people have been killed in the Israeli offensive, though the country does not say how many of them were Hezbollah combatants.
Israel says it targets military capabilities and takes steps to mitigate the risk of harm to civilians, putting blame on Hezbollah for hiding both personnel and weapons among civilians, including putting missile launchers in peoples’ homes.
This undated image released by the IDF on September 23, 2024, purportedly show a Hezbollah missile system in the attic of a home in the southern Lebanon village of Houmine al-Tahta. (Israel Defense Forces)
Experts in Israel say given the IDF’s reasoning, the army’s actions against Hezbollah are justifiable and properly conducted, despite the civilian toll.
Critics of the country’s actions are weaponizing international law by distorting the IDF’s actions and ignoring key provisions of such codes and rules, said Tammy Caner, director of the Law and National Security Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS).
“Those who accuse Israel of violating international law and committing war crimes either don’t understand how the laws of war work, don’t care, or use the laws of war to make false accusations against Israel,” she said.
Displacement effect
Over 1.2 million Lebanese, around a fifth of the country’s population, have been displaced since the start of Israel’s offensive last month, according to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR).
Most fleeing civilians have come from southern Lebanon, the Beqaa Valley in the east of the country, and the Dahiya suburb south of Beirut, all of them Hezbollah strongholds targeted by Israeli air raids.
Smoke rises from Israeli airstrikes in the southern village of Kfar Rouman, seen from Marjayoun, south Lebanon, Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Ahead of the Israel Air Force’s aerial campaign to destroy Hezbollah rockets, missiles, munitions and military installations, numerous warnings in Arabic were issued to civilians in areas set to be hit, including by phone call, text message, and by hacking into radio broadcasts and instructing people who know they are located close to Hezbollah assets to leave quickly.
The army has continued to issue warnings, including via social media, before it bombards heavily populated areas or launches raids in villages, telegraphing its punches but giving civilians who can leave a chance to get out of harm’s way.
The mass exodus, accompanied by scenes of highways jammed with packed cars trying to escape north and of families living on Beirut’s streets, has led to accusations that Israel is “depopulating” parts of Lebanon, particularly the south, and “forcibly displacing” its civilians.
Academics in the field of international law have accused Israel of “mass expulsions” and forced displacement. US Congresswoman Ayanna Presley, a hard-left member of the Democratic Party, has warned that Israel’s “forced displacement” in Gaza “must not be repeated in Lebanon.”
Tal Mimran, a lecturer in international law at Zefat Academic College in Safed and the director of a digital human rights program at the Tachlit think tank, rejected those allegations outright.
Mimran noted that displacement only covers those who have been forced out with no home to return to.
Families sit on the ground in Martyrs’ Square after fleeing Israeli airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, Saturday, Sept. 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)
While some residences have been bombed, there has not been any massive, wholesale destruction of civilian homes and infrastructure in the regions targeted by Israel, so the notion that Israel is forcibly displacing or “depopulating” those areas is not tenable, he argued.
Displacement is not very well defined in international law, although customary international law, a body of law arising from “general practice accepted as law” and norms of international law but not formalized in treaties, restricts forcible displacement.
A compilation of customary international law rules produced by the International Committee of the Red Crescent (ICRC), states that parties to a conflict “may not order the displacement of the civilian population,” but does allow exceptions “if the security of the civilians involved or imperative military reasons so demand.”
According to Mimran, the fact that hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah are ongoing means IDF evacuation orders fall under those exceptions.
“Right now, there is a military justification to protect the population,” he said.
You’ve been warned
On the flip side, some have alleged that Israel’s warnings are not “effective,” including claims that the time between the warnings and the attacks is too short.
Article 57 of Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Convention stipulates that “effective advance warning shall be given of attacks which may affect the civilian population,” adding, however, “unless circumstances do not permit.”
Israel is not a signatory to Additional Protocol I, although the ICRC lists the exact same provision in its rules of customary international law.
Caner pointed out that the terms of those provisions mean that the warnings have to be practically implementable — that is, those receiving the warnings must be able to understand them and leave before an attack.
On September 23, the first day of Israel’s intensified air campaign, there were some three hours between its first warnings issued via social media and when it announced that it had begun carrying out attacks in southern Lebanon, though it’s possible warnings were issued by other means earlier.
In the messages, the IDF warned residents of unspecified Lebanese villages to stay away from any buildings housing Hezbollah weapons or infrastructure.
“A warning has to be timely and effective, but that doesn’t mean it has to be 24 hours before an attack, general notification on shorter notice may suffice depending on the circumstances,” said Caner.
She added that since the latest escalation began, Israel has issued several evacuation warnings to Lebanese citizens living in southern and eastern Lebanon, and even in Beirut, who were located near Hezbollah facilities.
Both Additional Protocol I and the ICRC’s compilation of customary international law rules include provisions stating that warring parties should, as far as is possible, “endeavor to remove the civilian population… from the vicinity of military objectives.”
The warnings Israel has issued, which explicitly state concern for the safety of civilians living in proximity to Hezbollah military assets, are ostensibly designed to comport with those requirements.
Ends versus means
According to Caner, there is no obligation for Israel to issue warnings before carrying out strikes on Hezbollah commanders and the terror group’s leadership, as doing so would undermine the military objective of the attack by enabling them to escape.
A woman reads the Quran at the site of the assassination of Hezbollah terror group leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s southern suburbs, September 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)
Israel, however, is still obliged to comply with the principle of proportionality, which stipulates that the expected harm to civilians from an attack cannot be excessive in relation to the expected military advantage to be gained from it.
“Lebanese civilians do not lose their protection under international law just because they live in the same cities or buildings as Hezbollah members or fighters,” Saïd Benarbia of the International Committee of Jurists said in a statement on September 24. “The disproportionate and indiscriminate attacks against Lebanese civilians and civilian objects are war crimes and must be investigated as such, with a view to ensuring accountability.”
International law does not stipulate that an attack cause no civilian casualties, but rather that precautions be taken to avoid civilian casualties, warnings be given when possible, and that the expected level of collateral damage to civilians not be disproportionate to the expected military gain.
FILE – Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah speaks in a televised address via a video link during a ceremony to commemorate the death of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi and six officers, who were killed by an Israeli airstrike that demolished Iran’s consulate in Syria, in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on April 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar, File)
According to the Lebanese Health Ministry, 11 people were killed and 108 injured in the airstrikes that killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah near Beirut on September 27. Israel said at least 20 senior commanders were killed alongside Nasrallah, including Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front.
Six residential buildings were destroyed in the strike, which used 2,000-pound bunker-buster bombs fired from a fleet of eight F-15I fighter jets, though the relatively low casualty count indicates they may have been evacuated beforehand.
While the use of bunker-buster bombs in the attack was expected to cause significant collateral damage, Caner stated that targeting Hezbollah’s headquarters, eliminating Nasrallah and other commanders, and disrupting the group’s command and control capabilities could have been expected to significantly weaken Hezbollah and help turn the tide against Iran and its proxies in the region, providing a significant military advantage, and therefore be considered proportionate.
“The ‘military advantage’ of the attack is evident in this case,” said Caner.
“Targeting Hezbollah’s headquarters and eliminating Nasrallah and other commanders, depriving the group of its leader, and damaging its command and control capabilities could have been expected to weaken Hezbollah significantly.”
Boots on the ground
Israel, under heavy international pressure to limit its ground offensive, has taken pains to emphasize that its air and ground campaigns are not aimed at the Lebanese state but rather Hezbollah, and seeks only to push the terror group away from the Israeli border, where it has harassed Galilee towns with rockets, drones and anti-tank missiles for a year in solidarity with Hamas.
“Such actions, individually and aggregately, all amount to an armed attack against Israel, which entitle it to invoke the right of self-defense under article 51 of the United Nations Charter,” said Mimran.
The attacks have killed and wounded scores of soldiers and civilians alike, and prompted Israel to evacuate some 60,000 residents of towns closest to the border.
The inside of a Hezbollah tunnel that crossed into Israel, in a video released by the IDF on October 8, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
According to Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Hezbollah’s Radwan commando force had been readying to stage a major attack on Israeli communities, making the offensive an urgent imperative if residents were to feel safe enough to return home.
“We are eliminating the Hezbollah terrorist organization in southern Lebanon and dismantling its Radwan forces along the entire border,” he said on October 1, the day the ground incursion began. “What we will do here is part of what it means to ensure the safe return of Israel’s citizens to their homes in the north. We are changing the security situation.”
Reuters contributed to this report
END
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA
Biden Holds Phone Call With Netanyahu On Iran Strike Plans After Gallant Trip Blocked
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 11:05 AM
President Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are holding a crucial phone call Wednesday morning focused on Israel’s plans to strike back at Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack, which saw some 200 warheads launched, many of which hit targets on the ground including key airbases.
It marks the first call since Iran’s attack, and also the first between the leaders in two months, and comes as Washington has signaled it is deeply worried that a bigger regional war could break out if Israel’s retaliation goes too far. The call is scheduled for 10:30ET. NBC is reporting that Vice President Kamala Harris will join the call.
The call comes amid some internal Israeli drama, given the open spat between Netanyahu and his Defense Minister. Netanyahu has forced Gallant to cancel a planned trip to Washington. It was set for Wednesday, and he was to meet with counterparts in the Pentagon about “ongoing Middle East security developments,” a Pentagon statement had indicated.
“An Israeli official, who asked not to be identified discussing the decision, cited last-minute objections to the trip by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu,” Bloomberg confirms.
“Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who has sparred with Netanyahu about the conduct of the yearlong war in Gaza and on other fronts, had been due to fly to Washington for talks,” the report adds.
And Axios has filled in some further details as follows:
Netanyahu told Gallant his trip wouldn’t be approved he had received a call from Biden and the Israeli security cabinet had approved the attack plans.
The Biden-Netanyahu call was already scheduled before the flare-up between Netanyahu and Gallant, according to a source familiar with the issue.
As it stands, Biden is opposing both Israeli potential plans to strike nuclear facilities, and also energy sites such as oil and gas depots.
“A Netanyahu aide told Axios that once a decision was made, Netanyahu would want to brief Biden,” Axios noted. Is the Wednesday call all about Bibi getting a final go ahead from the White House?
The White House is said to be frustrated over lack of Israeli information-sharing on the planned attack. Times of Israel in fresh coverage specifically cites “growing frustration in Washington over Jerusalem’s unwillingness to share details of its intentions.” The US also reportedly learned of the Nasrallah assassination plans only after the fact of his death:
The lack of communication led to a blunt exchange between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant when Gallant phoned his counterpart on September 27 to inform him of the strike on Nasrallah after the fact.
“Excuse me, what did you say?” Austin reportedly asked Gallant. In a second phone call that same day, Austin asked his Israeli counterpart if Jerusalem was ready to defend itself on its own, as the US hadn’t had time to deploy its forces to deflect any immediate reprisal, the report said.
Should Israel want to use heavy US-supplied bombs in the attack, it would need to seek Washington’s blessing. But a US official has said, “We want to use the call to try and shape the limitations of the Israeli retaliation.”
💥🇺🇸🇮🇱Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu refuses to approve Defense Minister Yoav Galant's trip to Washington planned for tonight until a he gets a phone call with President Biden and until the Israeli cabinet approves the response to Iran's missile attack, according to a source…
Should conflict spiral across the region, US forces in Iraq and Syria would likely feel the brunt of the retaliation of Iran and its proxies in the region. Iraqi paramilitaries have already vowed to hit US positions hard in the scenario of Israeli escalation. The US is widely seen as supporting Israel hand-and-glove.
Already there’s nearly a full-scale war in Lebanon, and Israel has stepped up its strikes against Syria, last week also reportedly coming close to hitting a major Russian airbase on Syria’s coast. Bibi certainly looks in a mood to fight, and is likely indeed preparing to hit the Islamic Republic hard.
END
ISRAEL WEST BANK
Undercover Israeli commandos kill terror leader, four others on Nablus street
Local Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade leader, who reportedly survived June 2023 raid, killed in daylight shooting; Israel said to believe armed suspects were planning terror attack
People inspect a car that was hit by bullets in which at least four Palestinians were killed by Israeli special forces in the West Bank city of Nablus, Wednesday, Oct. 9, 2024. (AP/Majdi Mohammed)
Undercover Israeli forces opened fire on a car in the West Bank city of Nablus, killing five terror suspects, authorities said Wednesday.
Among those killed in the broad daylight shooting near central Nablus was the long-sought leader of the Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigade terror group in the nearby Balata refugee camp, according to police. He was named in reports as Issam al-Salaj.
The Israel Police said commandos from the Yamam counter-terror unit had been operating in Nablus when they opened fire on the terror suspects.
“The Yamam forces eliminated five armed terrorists who posed a threat to their lives,” police said.
According to police, the unit had been in Nablus as part of an arrest operation targeting terror suspects, backed by the Israel Defense Forces, Shin Bet security service and Border Police force.
Undercover Israeli special forces opened fire on a vehicle in the West Bank city of Nablus, killing several men, Palestinian media report. pic.twitter.com/2tlfmqQMUA
The Palestinian health ministry said four men were killed in the raid and a fifth person was hospitalized with bullet shrapnel wounds. His condition was not given.
Footage of the shooting shared on social media appeared to show a small group of undercover officers with automatic rifles opening fire on a car at close range while standing on a busy street, after apparently emerging from another car with Palestinian plates. Several onlookers could be seen watching the killings.
Another angle of the Israeli spec ops “Mistarvim” operating in Nablus today. They had just lit that car up & assassinated the leader of the al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade. pic.twitter.com/lj0UM3MutX
An unnamed security source quoted by the Kan public broadcaster said the occupants of the car had been high-ranking terror operatives who were planning an attack.
Police did not identify the other wanted Palestinians, but said they had been “involved in carrying out and planning terror operations against civilians and the IDF.”
The Four Terrorists with the Balata Battalion of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, including its Commander Issam al-Salaj, who were Eliminated earlier by the Israeli Special Forces Operation in the City of Nablus. pic.twitter.com/mxfvKc2YSt
Salaj had reportedly been the target of a failed June 2023 raid in Nablus, managing to escape with only injuries after a firefight with Israeli forces who had surrounded his home. A Palestinian teen with mental disabilities was killed during the standoff.
Nablus and the adjacent Balata camp have been one of the several flashpoints in the northern West Bank where Israel has intensified efforts against Palestinian terror groups.
The raids have largely targeted Hamas, Islamic Jihad and allied groups, but have also sought to clamp down on the Al-Aqsa Martyr’s Brigades, which is linked to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’s Fatah party.
The site of an Israeli drone attack in the Balata refugee camp, near the West Bank city of Nablus, August 15, 2024. (Nasser Ishtayeh/Flash90)
The shooting came hours after a terrorist stabbed several people in the Israeli city of Hadera, wounding six, in the second major terror attack this week following a deadly shooting in Beersheba on Sunday. In both instances, the perpetrators were Israeli citizens.
According to the PA, more than 716 West Bank Palestinians have been killed by Israeli troops since October 7, 2023, when the IDF stepped up anti-terror operations.
The IDF says the vast majority of them were gunmen killed in exchanges of fire, rioters who clashed with troops or terrorists carrying out attacks.
Troops have also arrested some 5,250 wanted Palestinians across the West Bank, including more than 2,050 affiliated with Hamas.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Corrupt Ukrainian Official’s Son Found Lying In Bed With Huge Sum Of Money; $6 Million Seized From Medical Fraud Op
A huge corruption case was uncovered in Khmelnytskyi, western Ukraine, with authorities detaining the head of the Hmelnytskyi County Medical Center over allegations he accepted huge sums of money to offer medical exemptions to Ukrainian men to avoid being conscripted.
The official, Tetyana Krupá, was responsible for medical examinations in the area, according to Trancarpathian news outlet Kárpáti Igaz Szó, which produces news in the Hungarian language. The paper reveals that the suspect is also the Khmelnytskyi county representative of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s party, the Servant of the People.
During a search of the official’s home, the man was found with various currencies worth a total of $6 million, which is an extraordinary sum for Ukraine.
Officers found $5.24 million, €300,000, and 5 million hryvnias, which is Ukraine’s currency. In addition, jewelry and other valuables were seized.
During the arrest, authorities claim Krupá tried tossing bags of money out the window containing half a million dollars. A photo of his son arrested among stacks of money strewn across his bed has also been published, although it is unclear if the son was found like this by police or the photo was staged, possibly to shame the arrested family members. A video was also published with the son lying on the bed with the money.
Investigators also determined Krupá owns 30 properties in Khmelnytskyi, Lviv and Kyiv; has nine luxury cars; owns a hotel and restaurant complex; has properties in Austria, Spain and Turkey; and holds another $2.3 million in foreign accounts.
The official in Zelensky’s party is accused of accumulating huge sums of money by illegally extorting men who were seeking a disability designation to avoid military service.
Forged medical documents were found in Krupa’s office, including lists of those avoiding mobilization with fictitious diagnoses. There are also pending charges of high-value fraud, money laundering, misrepresentation and illicit enrichment.
Notably, in Krupá’s own family, all the male members were also listed as “disabled,” at least according to the official exemptions issued by Krupá, which meant none of them had to partake in military service.
A Ukrainian anti-corruption website known as Anticor notes that the entire Krupa family were employed as public servants.
The case is surely to spark further public outrage within Ukraine over the fact that men are being rounded up off the streets to fight on the frontlines while corrupt officials and oligarchs avoid the brunt of the fighting that has claimed hundreds of thousands of casualties, destroyed the Ukrainian economy, and led to the country’s worst demographic crisis in its entire history.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0966 DOWN 0.0009
USA/ YEN 148.51 UP 0.373 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.3051 DOWN .0003
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3675 UP 0.0021 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 21 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 230.92 PTS OR 6.62%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 289.55 PTS OR 1.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.15%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 289.55 PTS OR 1.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 230.92 PTSD OR 6.62%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.15%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 340.42POINTS OR 0.81%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2621.50
silver:$30.74
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 102.37 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.0763 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.0886)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.24 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.// the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.931
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.052% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.324 UP 0 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.988 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2609.20
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.43
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 53.13 PTS OR 0.65%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 38.77 OR 0.52%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 188..46 PTS OR 0.99%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 6.80 OR 0.16%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 199.17 OR 0.59%
WTI Oil price 75.59 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 79.28 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.55 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 50/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2495 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.223 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.292 UP 0 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.108 UP 1
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0940 DOWN 0.0035 OR 35 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.3071 DOWN 0.0022 OR 22 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.230 UP 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.930
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.24 UP 1.108 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3703 UP 0.0049 CDN dollar DOWN 49 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 73.50
Brent OIL: 76.81
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS pts to 4.067
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS PTS to 4.337%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 3 PTS AT 4.009
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.290 UP 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.106 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 102.655 UP 35 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.23 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.00 DOWN 0 AND 25/100 roubles
GOLD 2,609.00 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.48 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 431.69 PTS OR .1.03%
NASDAQ UP 161..08 PTS OR 0.80%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 20/80 DOWN 0.62 PTS OR 0.80%
GLD: $241.05 DOWN 1.32 OR 0.54%
SLV/ $27.86 DOWN .15 OR 0.54%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:
Stocks Up, Yields Up, Dollar Up, China Down As Hawkish Minutes Hit Ahead Of CPI
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Despite the threat of CPI hovering over the vol markets…
Source: Bloomberg
…and notably hawkish minutes from The Fed (more divided over the scale of cuts than previously thought), which dragged rate-cut expectations lower still…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dow outperformed but the Nasdaq and S&P were solid performers as Small Caps gave back early gains…
S&P 500 hit another all-time intraday record high today and is now experiencing the strongest YTD performance of the 21st century…
The US ain’t cheap!!
Source: Bloomberg
Still not cheap…
Source: Bloomberg
But across the Pacific, Beijing was battered again…
Source: Bloomberg
Goldman Sachs trading desk notes that “We saw record single-day selling in Chinese equities on Tuesday…”
Source: Goldman Sachs
“To put this in a historical context, this net selling was 1.4 times larger than the previous record for net selling and represents a 6.5 Standard Deviation event on our records. Three-quarters of the net selling was driven by selling in A-shares as market opened up after a week long holiday. The remaining one-quarter of the selling activity was in H-shares while activity in ADRs was relatively muted. Hedge funds not only unwound their long positions but added shorts to their books as well, with long sells being double the amount of short sells.“
Source: Goldman Sachs
Back to the US markets, Mag7 stocks managed gains once again…
Source: Bloomberg
Before we leave stock-land, it’s worth noting that Goldman’s “Republican Victory” basket has been significantly outperforming the “Democratic Victory” basket in recent days, and they are now tied…
Source: Bloomberg
It’s been an interesting few weeks in the bond-stock relationship…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were higher across the board today (5-6bps up with no curve bias), pushing 2Y and 10Y further above 4.00% (and 20Y to 4.40%). The belly of the curve is the worst performer of the week for now (7Y +10.5bps)
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, USA sovereign risk is screaming higher still – now at its hottest since December…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar just won’t stop rallying, now at its strongest since mid-August, retracing all the drop since the August CPI print (ahead of tomorrow’s CPI)…
Source: Bloomberg
Dollar Strength weighed down gold prices modestly today but spot held above $2600…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was pummeled again, testing down tro $61,000 inatrday…
Source: Bloomberg
Crude prices fell again amid weakening hopes of more China strimmies and a big crude build (likely hurricane driven)…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, just when you hoped that rate-cuts would ease the pain for homeowners… the exact opposite is happening as growth and inflation anxiety is pushing the long-end of the curve up – sending mortgage rates dramatically higher (back near 7%)
Source: Bloomberg
Prompting a big drop in mortgage applications. Be careful what you wish for.
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///FOMC MINUTES
FOMC Minutes Show Fed Considerably More Divided Over Size Of Rate Cut
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 02:05 PM
Since the last FOMC meeting on September 18th, bonds have suffered a bloodbath while gold, stocks, and the dollar are all up modestly…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the apparent dovish pivot, the market’s expectations for rate-cuts (this year and next) has plunged dramatically…
Source: Bloomberg
This should not come as a huge surprise as Powell’s raison d’etre for major rate cuts evaporated as US macro data has surged higher, surprising to the upside almost non-stop…
Source: Bloomberg
It’s hard to justify slashing rates any further in the face of that macro backdrop without exposing the ‘political’ decision-making process behind The Fed’s move.
So, now we see the Minutes – what exactly is it that The Fed wants us to believe they are thinking?
Despite there only being one dissent against the 50bps cut (Michelle Bowman), The Fed Minutes suggest that the members are considerably more divided than headlines suggested…
Given the significant progress made since the Committee first set its target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent, a substantial majority of participants supported lowering the target range for the federal funds rate by 50 basis points to 4-3/4 to 5 percent. These participants generally observed that such a recalibration of the stance of monetary policy would begin to bring it into better alignment with recent indicators of inflation and the labor market. They also emphasized that such a move would help sustain the strength in the economy and the labor market while continuing to promote progress on inflation, and would reflect the balance of risks.
Some participants noted that there had been a plausible case for a 25 basis point rate cut at the previous meeting and that data over the intermeeting period had provided further evidence that inflation was on a sustainable path toward 2 percent while the labor market continued to cool. However, noting that inflation was still somewhat elevated while economic growth remained solid and unemployment remained low, some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 basis point reduction of the target range at this meeting, and a few others indicated that they could have supported such a decision.
Several participants noted that a 25 basis point reduction would be in line with a gradual path of policy normalization that would allow policymakers time to assess the degree of policy restrictiveness as the economy evolved.
A few participants also added that a 25 basis point move could signal a more predictable path of policy normalization.
A few participants remarked that the overall path of policy normalization, rather than the specific amount of initial easing at this meeting, would be more important in determining the degree of policy restriction. Participants judged that it was appropriate to continue the process of reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings.
Breaking down some specific topics…
INFLATION
“Almost all participants agreed that the upside risks to inflation had diminished…”
“With regard to the outlook for inflation, almost all participants indicated they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.“
Several participants remarked reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could risk stalling or reversal of progress on inflation.
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Staff outlook for the September meeting was for the economy to remain ‘solid’: though the forecast for growth in H2 24 was ‘marked’ down reflecting softer-than-expected labor indicators.
“Those who commented on the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy observed that they believed it to be restrictive, though they expressed a range of views about the degree of restrictiveness. “
ECONOMY
Participants generally noted it was important to communicate decisions are conditional on evolution of economy, implications for balance of risks and therefore not on a preset course.
EMPLOYMENT
“…, and most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased,”
Read the full Minutes below…
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Milton Barrels Towards Tampa-Area As A Cat. 5 Hurricane
Wednesday, Oct 09, 2024 – 07:20 AM
Milton strengthened overnight into a devastating Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds in excess of 160 mph. The National Hurricane Center reported early Wednesday that Milton was located about 300 miles southwest of Tampa, traversing the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico towards the northeast at 14 mph.
“On the forecast track, the center of Milton will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today, make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida late tonight or early Thursday morning, and move off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean Thursday afternoon,” NHC wrote in an advisory note.
The latest forecast states Milton will make landfall near Sarasota between 0200 ET and 0600 ET Thursday morning as a Category 4 storm.
One of the main concerns across the Tampa to Sarasota region will be the storm’s dangerous eye and eyewall unleashing record storm surges. Warnings have already been posted for much of Florida’s western coast.
“Tampa is on a knife’s edge, but Sarasota, Siesta Key, Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, and Punta Gorda continue to look to experience the worst of the storm surge under this scenario,” Ben Noll, a meteorologist with New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, wrote on X.
The overnight ECMWF nudges slightly north with #Milton, with the eye forecast to pass near the southern end of Tampa Bay.
Tampa is on a knife's edge, but Sarasota, Siesta Key, Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, and Punta Gorda continue to look to experience the worst of the… pic.twitter.com/DAqnVxHJ4v
As of early Wednesday, #Milton remained a category 5 storm with a central pressure of 907 hPa, continuing to rank in the top-10 most intense Atlantic hurricanes on record from a pressure perspective.
Since Sunday, evacuations in the state have been the largest since 2017.
According to the Florida Division of Emergency Management, here are the areas under mandatory evacuation orders:
Charlotte County; Citrus County; Collier County; Hillsborough County; Hernando County; Lee County; Levy County; Manatee County; Pasco County; Pinellas County; Sarasota County; St. John’s County and Volusia County;
And voluntary evacuation orders:
Glades County; Okeechobee County; Dixie County; Hardee County; Miami-Dade County and Union County.
Evacuation order map:
GTFO.
Officials are urging residents along Florida's Gulf Coast to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Milton, with the Tampa mayor saying, "If you choose to stay in one of those evacuation areas, you're going to die." pic.twitter.com/NTg683IJRH
A mass evacuation is in progress in Sarasota, Florida, following the upgrade of Hurricane Milton to a Category 5. Here’s a look at the northbound traffic on I-75 as residents make their escape.@MyRadarWX#flwx#hurricane#miltonpic.twitter.com/vC2pEvxLR2
Meanwhile, Tampa-area Sheriff Chad Chronister of the Hillsborough County Sheriff’s Office told residents anyone who has not evacuated is “on their own.”
BREAKING NEWS
Man in Oklahoma City arrested for plotting Election Day attack
An Afghan man was arrested in Oklahoma for allegedly plotting an election day “terrorist attack,” the US Department of Justice said on Tuesday.
The man, Nasir Ahmad Tawhedi, 27, living in Oklahoma City after entering the US in 2021 on a special immigrant visa, was plotting the attack in the name of Islamic State, according to the indictment.
Tawhedi and an underage co-conspirator were arrested on Monday after they met with FBI assets to buy two AK-47 rifles and ammunition. In his post-arrest interview, Tawhedi said the attack planned to target large gatherings of people, during which he and his co-conspirator expected to die as martyrs.
“We will continue to combat the ongoing threat that ISIS and its supporters pose to America’s national security, and we will identify, investigate, and prosecute the individuals who seek to terrorize the American people,” US Attorney-General Merrick Garland said in a statement.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
TUCKER CARLSON..
SWAMP STORIES
what a massive fraud!
Californian Households To Receive Climate Credit In October Utility Bills To Offset Increased Prices
More than 11.5 million customers of privately owned utility companies in California will automatically receive an average credit of $71 on their October utility bills, Gov. Gavin Newsom said in an Oct. 2 statement.
The climate credits are intended to help “offset increases while preserving the incentive for customers to conserve energy and reduce [greenhouse gas] emissions,” according to the California Public Utilities Commission’s website.
Funding comes from the state’s cap-and-trade program, which regulates the amount of carbon produced by companies and requires those that exceed limits to pay fees.
Credit amounts vary for utility providers. The more than 5 million households that rely on the largest energy company in the state, PG&E, will receive $55.17.
About 46,000 Californians served by Pacific Power—an energy company operating in the far northern part of the state—will see the largest credits of $174.25.
Bear Valley Electric Service—offering power to 23,000 residents in the Alpine County region known for its ski area—customers will receive the smallest credit at $32.24.
“Not only does this credit provide much-needed relief for families, it’s helping Californians make the switch to cleaner energy,” Gov. Gavin Newsom said in the statement.
A similar credit was applied to customers’ bills in April, with the total for the year averaging $217.
Households have received an average of $971 in climate credits since 2014, amounting to more than $14 billion across the state, according to the governor’s office.
Some critics have said the state’s climate policies amount to high-priced fees that negatively affect consumers.
“To reduce greenhouse gases marginally in this state, we have this very expensive program called cap-and-trade, which is a hidden tax on energy,” Susan Shelley, a journalist based in Southern California, told EpochTV’s “Leaving California” documentary last year.
“It’s on utilities, it’s on refineries, it’s on manufacturing, it’s on everything.”
A study titled “Zapped: How California’s Punishing Energy Agenda Hurts the Working Class” published in 2022 found that higher utility prices were affecting millions of Californians.
“There is nothing unique about California that should cause the state’s electricity rates to be significantly higher than the rest of the country,” Wayne Winegarden wrote in a report analyzing the study.
“Instead, the results are the expected and desired outcome from … Sacramento’s energy policy agenda of recent years.”
The regulator in charge of overseeing the industry said the state’s green energy policies are, in part, responsible for rising electricity prices.
“This all comes at a cost,” Alice Reynolds, president of the California Public Utilities Commission, said during a March hearing of the Assembly’s Utilities and Energy Committee when questioned by lawmakers about energy prices.
“Any investment in clean energy technology … is funded through electricity bills.”
Lawmakers began discussing the cap-and-trade program in 2006, with an agreement reached in 2012, and the law took effect the following year.
Since then, energy prices have increased significantly in the state with more than a dozen increases since 2019. Californians paid about 67 percent more than the national average for electricity in 2022, and some Golden State residents pay more than five times the rate per kilowatt hour charged in the lowest-priced areas in the country, according to statistics from the U.S. Energy Information Agency.
Utility companies, including PG&E, included comments in rate request filings noting that some added costs are attributed to the state’s decarbonization strategy.
“We are also experiencing the impact of the State’s decarbonization strategy, particularly on our gas distribution system,” PG&E said in the 2021 filing.
“Numerous cities have adopted ordinances prohibiting gas appliances in new construction. The projected decline in throughput may lead to a declining base of core customers who will pay for our gas system costs, with rate increases needed to cover that gap.”
Legislators on both sides of the aisle pointed to the state’s climate agenda as contributing to the high cost of living in California.
“These energy mandates jacked up utility rates,” Republican Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher told The Epoch Times on Feb. 26.
“All of this stuff has a cost.”
He said the state is forcing taxpayers and electricity and fuel consumers to pay for inefficient climate policies.
“All of this stuff we’ve been doing on climate is super-expensive, and it’s just going to get more expensive,” Gallagher said in March.
Lawmakers from the Democratic Party have also spoken about calls they were receiving from constituents concerned about energy prices jeopardizing their finances and the unintended consequences of some legislative policies.
“Rates are skyrocketing in California. The harsh reality is that millions of Californian families are at the breaking point right now,” Assemblywoman Cottie Petrie-Norris, chair of the energy committee, said during the March hearing while highlighting statistics that showed California has the highest utility rates in the nation. “Our constituents want to know what’s going on and more importantly, they want to know what we, as their elected officials, are doing to address this issue and contain costs.”
Businesses are also paying the price, she said.
“High energy prices are also a major challenge for California businesses, particularly our small businesses, who are struggling to keep their doors open, and, quite literally, keep their lights on,” Petrie-Norris said.
More than a million small businesses will also receive credits on their October bills, according to the governor’s Oct. 2 statement.
end
Kamala Sends $157 Million to Lebanon After Claiming No Money for U.S. Hurricane Victims
ROBERT h
“One might imagine that Americans would wake up and realize that government does not care about Americans.
With this crowd now insisting that banks report all transactions over $600.00 one might think that the surveillance state is now fully active. George Orwell could not have even dreamed of such things.
At some point, Americans will realize that the land of the brave and free is not America.
Sadly, this seems like a trend in the entire Western world. It is no wonder that people are predicting that the financial mantle and prize will go to China. All the West has is “Money Power” which is currency based. It has lost its ability to produce and this will be the undoing when Money Power falls. The rise of the BRICS is because of this realization of opportunity. Strategically focus on war directly or by proxy is simple ignorance of realities. It is why today Russia out produces the entire west world in artillery shells and the like.
The only way the West will win is by reinventing itself to become a powerhouse of manufacturing and production of goods the world wants and needs. Sadly, in governments today such discussion has no place.”
While there’s not enough money for hurricane victims in America, Vice President Kamala Harris announced on October 5 that “the United States will provide nearly $157 million in additional assistance to the people of Lebanon… This additional support brings total U.S. assistance to Lebanon over the last year to over $385 million.” $20 million to Hurricane Helene survivors. $157 million to Hezbollah. Those Hezbollah votes in Dearborn, Michigan don’t come cheap. Pictured: Harris campaigns in Flint, Michigan on October 4, 2024. (Photo by Dominic Gwinn/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images)
According to Joe Biden, there’s just no money for hurricane victims.
“Do you have any words to the victims of the hurricane?”
BIDEN: “We’ve given everything that we have.”
“Are there any more resources the federal government could be giving them?”
Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas claims that the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is running out of money. (And not because it blew through $1.4 billion on illegal aliens, that’s dangerous misinformation.)
While there’s not enough money for hurricane victims in America, after Israel took out Hezbollah Islamic terrorist leaders, Vice President Kamala Harris announced on October 5:
“The people of Lebanon are facing an increasingly dire humanitarian situation. I am concerned about the security and well-being of civilians suffering in Lebanon and will continue working to help meet the needs of all civilians there.
“To that end, the United States will provide nearly $157 million in additional assistance to the people of Lebanon for essential needs such as food, shelter, water, protection, and sanitation to help those who have been displaced by the recent conflict. This additional support brings total U.S. assistance to Lebanon over the last year to over $385 million.”
$385 million for an Islamic terrorist state.
But there’s a bold press release out at FEMA declaring that the “Biden-Harris Administration Provides More Than $20 Million to Hurricane Helene Survivors, Ongoing Search and Rescue Operations Continue in North Carolina”.
$20 million to Hurricane Helene survivors.
$157 million to Hezbollah.
Those Hezbollah votes in Dearborn, Michigan don’t come cheap.
Daniel Greenfield is a Shillman Journalism Fellow at the David Horowitz Freedom Center.
@Lingling_Wei: Source in Beijing told me there are lots of “misunderstandings in the market” about what China will do next to support growth. Yes, some fiscal measures “in the pipeline” but nothing as big as some had speculated. Update: Market expectations for China stimulus — 2 trillion/3 trillion/4 trillion/5 trillion/10 trillion yuan. NDRC: 200 billion yuan (all for investment/strategic projects) https://x.com/Lingling_Wei/status/1842884193816117719
After being closed for the Golden Week holiday, Chinese stocks soared when they opened on Tuesday. The CSI 300 was +11%. Rabid selling appeared after the National Development and Reform Commission did NOT announce new stimulus schemes. The Hang Seng Index tumbled as much as 10.0% and closed -9.41%, its worst decline since the Lehman Crisis. The CSI 300 closed +5.93%. The Shanghai Composite closed +4.59%; it opened +10.1%.
China Stock Turnover Surges to Record 2.6 Trillion Yuan – BBG
China’s Stock Euphoria Cools as Traders Reassess Stimulus Bets – BBG Anticipation for an opening pop had been building given the rally in Hong Kong-listed shares, reports of record account openings at major Chinese brokerages in preparation for Tuesday’s session and hopes that the press briefing by the nation’s top economic planning agency will offer more positive catalysts… Officials at the National Development and Reform Commission said they would speed up spending, while largely reiterating plans to boost investment and increase direct support for low-income groups and new graduates… https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-stock-rally-fizzles-traders-023950970.html
The lack of new Chinese stimulus schemes and the warnings that people are overestimating the amount of Chinese stimulus induced rabid selling of commodities. Precious and industrial metals got clobbered. Bonds declined; the US 10-year yield hit a 10-week high of 4.057%.
USZs hit a daily low of 120 24/32, -18/32, at 9:55 ET. They then persistently rallied into the US 3-year auction. As we noted months ago, instead of the usual decline into US Auctions, someone has been aiding and abetting the US Treasury by forcing USZs and TYZs (10-year futures) into auctions.
The 3-year WI was 3.871% before the auction, the highest rate since July and 45bps higher than the September auction. The $58B auction was soft: 3.878%; Indirect 56.9%, Direct 24%.
US stocks rallied on Turnaround Tuesday buying and lust for Nvidia, which was +4.1% at 11:04 ET.
Nvidia Touts Energy Efficiency of Chips at Washington Summit – BBG 11:10 ET The company’s Blackwell chips, which are beginning to roll out to customers this year, would need 3 gigawatts of power to develop OpenAI’s GPT-4 software, Nvidia said at an event called the AI Summit DC. Ten years ago, that process would have required 5,500 gigawatts, the chipmaker said… https://news.bloomberglaw.com/business-and-practice/nvidia-touts-energy-efficiency-of-chips-at-washington-summit-1 ESZs opened modestly higher on Monday night but spiked lower when Chinese stocks started to slide. After hitting a daily low of 5725.25 at 18:31 ET, ESZs rallied to 5754.50 at 20:30 ET. After a modest retreat, ESZs vacillated between small gains and losses until they moved higher after 3:34 ET.
After a rally to 5767.25 at 5:22 ET, ESZs traded in a 9-handle range until they moved higher 3 minutes before the NYSE opening. The rally quickly aborted; but another rally developed at 9:52 ET. ESZs hit a daily high of 5795.00 at 10:44 ET. ESZs then did a slow rollover that ended at 13:08 ET.
A steady and persistent afternoon rally took ESZs from 5774.50 to a new daily high of 5806.75 at 15:53 ET. ESZs fell to 59797.50 at the NYSE close. USZs jumped 9 ticks to be +1/32 at the NYSE close.
Fed’s Bostic (usually a dove) Says Inflation Rate is Still ‘Quite a Ways’ above 2%: A Risk That the Economy is Too Strong, and Could Hamper Policy Recalibration – Reuters 12:58 ET
@business: President Joe Biden is postponing a trip to Germany and Angola to focus on the response to Hurricane Milton, the second major storm in two weeks to impact the US southeast
@GrageDustin: Joe Biden on Ron DeSantis: “The Governor of Florida has been cooperative. He’s said he’s gotten all that he needs. I talked to him again yesterday. I said I know you’re doing a great job… We thank you for it. And I literally gave him my personal phone number to call…” https://x.com/GrageDustin/status/1843685500265345206 (Biden contradicts & undercuts Harris!)
Biden throws Kamala Harris under the bus by praising DeSantis for his hurricane responsehttps://trib.al/XoplGPo
@greg_price11: Kamala is currently on the View. For the second time in a week, Biden counter programmed her — holding a briefing at the White House on the hurricane at the same time. https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1843677422266569097
DeSantis aide @ChristinaPushaw: Gov DeSantis & President Biden spoke last night. There is a chain of command when it comes to disaster response, which Florida is very familiar with. VP Harris is not part of that chain of command; the President is. If Harris doesn’t understand that, she isn’t prepared.
@NEWSMAX: Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez: “The Vice President has no role to play in this. She is the one that has politicized it. She is the one that is playing games, and so we’re going to continue to focus on Floridians.” (Biden’s trip cancelation ensures that Harris will have no role in Hurricane Milton.) https://x.com/NEWSMAX/status/1843657142374674495
@TFTC21: Gov. Ron DeSantis: “I didn’t know she tried to contact me. But I’d also say, It’s not about you, Kamala. It’s about the people of Florida.” “We know it’s because of politics.” https://x.com/TFTC21/status/1843704979275849748
@kylenabecker: WATCHDOG: FEMA has $7 billion in UNUSED FUNDS that it could use to address disasters as Americans reel from massive hurricanes. The Department of Homeland Security’s watchdog uncovered the unspent emergency funding, despite DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas’ recent claim that no funds were available after Hurricane Helene…https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1843655212835143847
How FEMA got into the illegal immigrant business, and who is covering it up Both Republicans and Democrats signed off on a budget deal earlier this year that increased funding for FEMA’s immigration programs that are now under scrutiny as the agency faces crisis over weak hurricane response. https://justthenews.com/government/congress/how-fema-got-migrant-business-and-who-covering-it
Positive aspects of previous session Fangs rallied sharply abetted by Nvidia, which touted its chips at the AI Summitt DC. US equity indices posted moderate gains on a Turnaround Tuesday and NVDA.
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined again (until the NYSE close); the US 3-year auction ($58B) was weak.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will Biden do next to hurt Harris’s campaign?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5741.10 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5757.60; 5714.56
Decimated Hezbollah says it is ready for cease-fire talks with Israelhttps://trib.al/jXuJk4L
@BillMelugin_: The FBI has arrested an Afghan national who they say was plotting an ISIS inspired terror attack on Election Day to target large crowds. According to the FBI, he entered the US on 9/9/21 on a special immigrant visa, days after the disastrous US Afghan withdrawal, and currently has parole status. The FBI has a has a photo allegedly from his iPhone they say depicts him describing to his daughter and another child “the rewards a martyr receives in the afterlife.” https://x.com/BillMelugin_/status/1843780995788558414
Today – As we expected, traders played for a Turnaround Tuesday to the upside. Barring impact news, today’s session should be rather lame as traders hold their fire for the September CPI Report tomorrow.
Can Fangs rally without some tout? Can Nvidia continue to rally without an event or tout today?
ESZs are -4.75; NQZs are -19.00; and USZs are +9/32 at 20:50 ET.
Expected econ data and events: Aug Wholesale Inventories 0.2% m/m, Sales 0.4%; FOMC Minutes from Sept. 9 14:00 ET; Atlanta Fed Pres Bostic 8 ET, Dallas Fed Pres Logan 9:15 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 10:30 ET, Fed Gov. Jefferson 12:30 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5564; 100-day MA: 5502; 150-day MA: 5385; 200-day MA: 5264 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,020; 100-day MA: 40,219; 150-day MA: 39,744; 200-day MA: 39,356 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5751.13 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5392.06 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5626.76 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5711.23 triggers a sell signal
Trump campaign demands ‘unedited transcript’ of Kamala Harris ‘60 Minutes’ interview after her Israel ‘word salad’ disappearshttps://trib.al/pvRobVS
@greg_price11: Kamala is such an untalented Zero that even though 60 Minutes edited the interview as much as they possibly could to try and make her look good, she still absolutely crashed and burned in spectacular fashion.
Actress @PatriciaHeaton: When the unedited clips went online everyone was praising Bill Whitaker for pushing back on Harris. It was refreshing. CBS just ruined it all by deceptively editing the interview to try to save her butt. They just put the last nail in their coffin. And maybe hers. If I were Whitaker I’d be really pissed off.
Kamala.exe Malfunctions during 60 Minutes Ambush over Border, Firearms, Nomination In the pre-taped interview, Harris faced some actual journalism, squirming awkwardly as she faced questions about her nomination, and was asked to clarify her shifting positions on fracking, border security, and other policy flip-flops. “I have been traveling our country, and I have been listening to folks and seeking what is possible in terms of common ground,” Harris responded. “I believe in building consensus.”… When asked whether the administration has lost its sway over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Harris said: “We’re not going to stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.” Harris was also asked about how she planned to end the war in Ukraine and what success would mean for her. “There will be no success in ending that war without Ukraine and the U.N. Charter participating in what that success looks like,” she responded… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/devout-public-servant-harris-asked-explain-policy-flip-flops-cbs-60-minutes
@Mike_Palicz: It’s clear from this interview Kamala Harris does not understand what a tax deduction is.She’s repeated the line “you can’t start up any small business with $5,000” multiple times now. She clearly thinks her own policy is for the government to hand out $50K to small businesses.https://t.co/4otO6UIuUk
@BillAckman: If… the polls begin to make clear that Donald Trump will win, we could see other media organizations abandon their short-term efforts to get Kamala Harris elected and start to play more fair as they become concerned with the damage to their long-term reputations.
@FreeBeacon: The View: Would you have done something differently than President Biden during the past four years? Kamala: “There is not a thing that comes to mind.” https://x.com/FreeBeacon/status/1843673246941724967 @TomBevanRCP: How could you go on national tv and not expect this (Soft toss) question and have a prepared answer?
PS – Tim Walz about two weeks ago, “We can’t afford four more years of this!”
@JackPosobiec: Less than 12 hours after my reporting that Kamala and Jill’s staff had a fight in the White House, Harris is on the View dropping the ‘change agent’ and suddenly talking about how she is on the same page as Joe Biden – first time she’s ever talked like this in an interview.
Daily Mail: Kamala Harris makes stunning admission about Biden on The View – as Whoopi Goldberg calls her ‘the next president’ – Kamala Harris said there is nothing she would change in terms of what President Joe Biden has done during their time in the White House… Republicans promptly pounced on Harris’ remark. ‘Kamala Harris is more of the same. She admits it herself,’ J.D. Vance, the Republican vice presidential nominee wrote on X… And Don Jr., the son of the former president, was even more forceful. ‘And just like that, Kamala’s entire bull**** campaign about being a ‘change agent’ collapses. You can’t call yourself a change agent when you not only agree with every single disaster Joe Biden is responsible for, but you brag about being involved in all those decisions!,’ he wrote on X…https://trib.al/antAbg1
@TrumpWarRoom: CNN cooks Kamala Harris over saying there is nothing she would have done differently than Biden: “I’m surprised frankly that she doesn’t have more to say about this given that she and her campaign know this is one of the main questions voters have about her.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1843691534803448184
@JoeConchaTV: We just witnessed the impossible. Kamala Harris is the first Democrat to somehow screw up an interview on The View.
Axios: Harris: “Not a thing” she’d have done differently than Biden Why it matters: Voters largely disapprove of Biden’s handling of issues like inflation, but Harris has benefited from the fact that they don’t tend to blame her. Rather than distance herself, though, she has mostly embraced Biden’s policies as she runs for the White House… https://www.axios.com/2024/10/08/harris-biden-view-abc-2024-differences
@charliekirk11: The last-minute media blitz by Kamala Harris is going very poorly for her. Total backfire. No wonder they tried to avoid this.
@piersmorgan: The more interviews Kamala Harris does, the weaker a presidential candidate she seems.Just endless word salad bilge. Democrats must be kicking themselves they didn’t have a proper contest to replace Biden.
@redsteeze: Doug Emhoff punched a woman in the face with 3 eyewitness accounts and CBS, ABC, NBC and CNN ignored it. Not to mention dozens of accounts who made their following in this platform over #MeToo; Because of an election. (There have been no questions about what Harris knew about Biden’s mental capacity or her time as CA AG, which reportedly her team prohibits.)
Trump rips media silence on Doug Emhoff abuse claim, says it’d be ‘greatest story in the last five years’ if he was accusedhttps://trib.al/N2Q8cCZ
To say Team Obama-Harris has had a bad spree is an understatement. Will the MSM is turn on her?
@EricLDaugh: Republicans posted INSANE registration numbers in crucial states of North Carolina and Pennsylvania over the last month. In both states, Republicans out-numbered new Democrats by nearly 2-to-1.https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1843683293046407561
@bennyjohnson: Elon Musk explains why residents in New York, such as his mother and her friends, have all changed from Democrat to Republican: “You know what will turn you from going to a Democrat to Republican really fast? Is getting punched in the face.” https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1843424637633565083
@joelpollak: First question from Howard Stern to Kamala Harris: “Do you nap at all?” Second question from Howard Stern to Kamala Harris: “Did you like the Prince soundtrack for the Batman movie?” Stern, trying to help Harris, asked if Obama selected Walz to be her VP. Harris said she made the choice. Howard Stern inadvertently ridiculed Kamala by stating that he would vote for a wall over Trump.
Ex-DJT aide @MichaelRCaputo: White House staffer tells me it’s open warfare between Team Kamala and Team Biden. This is nuts.
Tuesday night political scuttlebutt: Several pundits are alleging that elements in Team Obama-Harris now believe that Harris will lose – and they are pointing fingers at the Bidens and each other.
Apparently, Team Obama believed that the Taylor Swift card would carry Harris to the presidency. When they played the card earlier than wanted, because Harris was fading in the polls, the hope shifted to the expectation that JD Vance would turn women to Harris after the VP Debate. When the opposite occurred, panic set in.
Reportedly, Obama and his political guru David Axelrod were the architects of the Harris media blitz to friendly outlets that transpired over the past few days. Their scheme backfired.
Bob Woodward’s book “War” is due for release on October 15. CNN ran excerpts.
‘That son of a bitch’: New Woodward book reveals candid behind-the-scenes conversations of Biden, Trump, Harris and Putin – “That son of a bitch, Bibi Netanyahu, he’s a bad guy. He’s a bad f***ing guy!” Biden declared privately about the Israeli prime minister to one of his associates in the spring of 2024 as Israel’s war in Gaza intensified, Woodward writes. “That f***ing Putin,” Biden said to advisers in the Oval Office not long after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to Woodward. “Putin is evil. We are dealing with the epitome of evil.”… Woodward reports… the US had obtained a treasure trove of intelligence, which showed “conclusively” in October 2021 that Putin had plans to invade Ukraine with 175,000 troops… https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/bob-woodward-book-war-joe-biden-putin-netanyahu-trump/index.html
Woodward claims Biden regrets making Garland AG; Trump has had 7 phone calls with Putin since DJT left office (Team Trump denies, saying no one has cooperated with Woodward); and GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham likened going to Mar-a-Lago like being in North Korea for the fawning over DJT.
@HaMeturgeman: Biden tells Woodward that ultimately Barack Obama is the one to blame for Russia invading Ukraine – “We f***ed up in 2014… Barack never took Putin seriously.” https://x.com/HaMeturgeman/status/1843631975053308056
@NEWSMAX: The campaign for former President Donald Trump responded to the new book by journalist Bob Woodward on Tuesday, calling it “the work of a truly demented and deranged man.” Read more: https://bit.ly/3NhQiY0
CBS’s hit morning show in turmoil as bosses shame host for tense on-air exchange with author The hostile segment came last Monday on the network’s CBS Morning’s segment, when host Tony Dokoupil launched into an aggressive line of questioning with author Ta-Nehisi Coates. Coates was promoting his new book The Message, which includes a section on the Israel-Palestine conflict, leading Dokoupil to question him on his apparent antipathy towards Israel… https://t.co/iQJlz5Uhdj
CBS’ Tony Dokoupil offers ‘regrets’ at teary staff meeting after grilling anti-Israel author Staffers are “divided” on the Israel-Palestinian conflict and were “troubled” by how Dokoupil challenged Coates last week… https://trib.al/FxCmi7s
“Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities.” – Voltaire
Analyst and financial writer John Rubino has long warned of a massive financial crisis. With unstoppable wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, Rubino says one thing is for sure, “Chaos is coming.” Rubino explains, “This does not get fixed easily, and to the extent this gets fixed at all, this gets fixed via chaos. Prepare for a really interesting decade. This is going to be unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes. Not since the Great Depression, nothing like this has happened.”
This all feeds into what Rubino calls the “shrinking trust horizon.” Rubino points out, “When everybody is lying to you, you reach a point where you only trust your city councilman, or your mayor and your local farmers. . . . So, you just don’t put any stock in what your doctor tells you. You stop taking the vaccinations they tell you to take. . . . You stop doing the . . . statins for high blood pressure and cholesterol. You stop doing that because you don’t trust those people anymore. . . . Starting with the “weapons of mass destruction,” which the government lied to us to get us into a multi-trillion dollar war in Iraq, it’s been one big lie after another. In 2016, there was Trump/Russia collusion. . . . It turned out to be Hillary Clinton opposition research. With the CV19 pandemic, it was just lie, after lie, after lie. . . . Now, you have what is going on in North Carolina and Tennessee after Hurricane Helene. People are figuring out they are being lied to one issue at a time. . . . You’ve got a whole new set of people watching the government screw up and behave incompetently or corruptly, and they are learning they cannot trust the guys in charge anymore. So, the trust horizon is shrinking everywhere you look.”
There are so many parts of the economy that are quietly facing huge trouble and big losses. Nothing could start a total all-sector market crash faster than an attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear sites. Rubino says, “There you go. That could be the thing that sets everything off. Bombing nuclear weapons facilities or a nuclear power plants is one of those things that has so many unintended consequences. Iran would have to respond to that in a serious way. It’s possible that China and Russia would step in on the side of Iran. . . . Then you get something much bigger. . . . I think the financial markets would respond to that. Oil would go to $150 a barrel. That would crash the stock market. Then you get all the other dominos falling: commercial real estate, residential real estate, government bonds, derivatives and everything starts blowing up. That could be the catalyst for a market crash much bigger than 2008 and 2009. This would be something we have not seen since the Great Depression. We are not far from that. I think Trump said he thinks Israel should bomb Iran’s nuclear facility. . . . Biden is the demented figurehead for the neocons who want WWIII because they think they can win it. Chaos is definitely coming, but I am hoping it is survivable chaos, and I am not sure that it will be.”
harveyorganblog.com 
