GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $13.60 TO $2675.20

SILVER PRICE UP $0.25 TO $31.77

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2674.15

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.70

Bitcoin morning price:$67.898 UP 1072 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $67,847 up 1021 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $6.50 TO $995.35

Palladium price; UP 9.20 TO $1026.00

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3677.15 UP 5.00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,677.15 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 16 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2059.35 UP 23.17 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2059.35 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 16/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,462.72 UP 18.23 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.462.72 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 16 //.2024)

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END

EXCHANGE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,661.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/15/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 10/17/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

132 C SG AMERICAS 10
152 C DORMAN TRADING 8
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 6
661 C JP MORGAN 9 16
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 4
737 C ADVANTAGE 7 1
905 C ADM 1

---

TOTAL: 31 31

---

JPMorgan stopped 0/31

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 31 NOTICES FOR 3100 OZ  or  0.0964 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,460 contracts for 1,246,000 Oz (38.755 tonnes)

FOR  OCT

SILVER NOTICES:11 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 55,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1303 for 6.515 million oz

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $13.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD/ HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 4,02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 25 CENTS AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.064 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 511 CONTRACTS TO 141,898 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS OF $0.02 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 906 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SLIGHT LOSS  IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE.. //. WE HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE..  WE HAD A GOOD 395 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 504 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE 906 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SMALL LOSS IN PRICE BUT THAT NUMBER OF LOST CONTRACTS IS MAGNIFIED BY OUR TAS LIQUIDATION TRADING BY OUR ILLUSTRIOUS FRBNY CROOKS.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 504 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY A TINY 2 CENTS AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING SOME NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1092 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG 395 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW TOTAL 6.535 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 6.535 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 504 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED A HUMONGOUS 186 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAYS, total 6366 contracts:   OR 31.830 MILLION OZ  (579 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  31.830 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 31.830 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 511  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR $0.02 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 395 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF  5.355 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 5,000 OZ

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 6.535 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 906 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR SLIGHT LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 504 CONTRACTS (USED FOR YESTERDAY’S TRADING),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION.

/ ZERO SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE SMALL LOSS IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT   (504) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.

WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR NIL OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4608 OI CONTRACTS  TO 541,232 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 756 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A GOOD SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (4608 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $2.85 IN PRICE /TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3200 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  38.986 TONNES+ 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 59.160 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $2.85 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 8568 OI CONTRACTS (26.65 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON FRIDAY, AND TUESDAY WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING DAILY.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3960 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 541,232

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8568 CONTRACTS  WITH 4608 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3960 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8568 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 929 CONTRACTS, WE HAD MINOR LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3960 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE GOOD SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 4608 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8568 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3200 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 38.986 TONNES. + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 59.160 TONNES

 / 3) MINOR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  GOOD SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 929 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 37,975 CONTRACTS OF 3,797,500 OZ OR 118.118 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3452 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  118.118 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  118.118 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 118.118 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 511 CONTRACTS OI  TO 141,898 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 395 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 395 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 395 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 697   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 395 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1092 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 4.530 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR  $0.02 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.66 PTS OR 0.05%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 31.94 PTS OR 0.16%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 730.25 PTS OR 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.49%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1127 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1247 Oil UP TO 70.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.31 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A GOOD SIZED 4608 CONTRACTS TO 541,232 WITH OUR SMALL  GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.85 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3960). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS ON LAST TUESDAY, OCT 2, WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! TODAY WE REVERTED BACK TO ZERO ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY DURING THE BEGINNING OF THIS MONTH AS A MAJOR BUYER OF PHYSICAL (THE CHINESE) WERE OFF DUE TO GOLDEN WEEK AND THIS CONTINUES ON THIS WEEK DESPITE THEIR PRESENCE.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 22 -24 2024/. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR GOLD AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! THIS WEEK HAS BEEN A STELLAR WEEK FOR GOLD.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH TUESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE BUT AGAIN AS WITH THURSDAY’S THROUGH TUESDAY’S TRADING, ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR FOR GOLD ON THIS SIDE OF THE PLANET.

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3960 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  3960 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3960 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 8568 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3960 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A GOOD GAIN OF 4608 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR SMALLISH  GAIN IN PRICE OF $2.85 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A SMALL SIZED 929 CONTRACTS,  WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND RAIDS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   OCT (59.160 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 38.986 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =59.160 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY  $2.85/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL.IN STOPPING GOLD’S ADVANCE. CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 29.00 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3200 OZ QUEUE JUMP………………..

//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 38.986 TONNES.+ 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

NEW STANDING FOR OCT 38.986 TONNES + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 59.160 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $2.85

WE HAD 756 CONTRACTS REMOVED  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8568 CONTRACTS OR 856,800 OZ (26.50 TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 170,097 contracts poor

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

OCT 16  OCT  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	238.281 OZ Delaware Brinks one kilobar/brinks           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	nil oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	31 notice(s) 3100 OZ 0.0964 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	74 contracts    7400 OZ 0.2301 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,460 notices 1,246,000oz 38.755 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits:0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits 0 oz

withdrawals: 2

i) Out of Delaware 206.130 oz

ii) Out of Brinks 32.151 oz (one kilobar)

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 238.281 oz oz

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 105 contracts having GAINED 21 contracts.

We had 11 contracts filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED 32 contracts on our two exchanges or 32 CONTRACTS underwent a 3200 oz queue jump. This is central bank action grabbing all the physical they can.

NOVEMBER LOST 13 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1542

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 3164 CONTRACTS TO 439,598

We had 31 contracts filed for today representing 3100 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 9 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 31 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,460 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT(105 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (31 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,253,400 OZ  OR 38.986 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, NEW TOTAL = 59.160 TONNES (CORRECTED FROM YESTERDAY)

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (12,460 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT  (105 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (31 x 100 oz which equals  1,253,400 oz (38.986 TONNES) + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY = 59.160 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 59.160 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,695,138.428  oz 52.725 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,045,608,522 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,826,170.090/// 243,42tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,219,438.432 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,132,032 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.700tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 16 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE OCT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,596,881.019 oz Brinks Manfra .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,768,089.590 oz ASAHI Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	0CONTRACT(S)    (NIL OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	4 contracts  (20,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1303Contracts  (6.515 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  2 customer deposits

i) Into ASAHI: 569,453.300 oz

ii) Into Loomis: 1178,630.290 oz oz

total customer deposits 1,768,089.590 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) out of Brinks 1,394,699.310 oz

ii) Out of Manfra: 202,181.709 oz

total withdrawal 1,596,881.019 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/306.120million  or 44.11%

adjustment 1

dealer to customer/CNT 1,121,469.059/

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.742MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 306.126million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 4 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 0 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NOVEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 6 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 767

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 151 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,647 CONTRACTS

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for NIL oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 55,635 poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1303x 5,000 oz = 6.515 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (4) and the number of notices served upon today (0)x (5000 oz) equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month:  1303 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(4) number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month equates to 6.535 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 6.535 million oz.

There are 69.742 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

 OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

 OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 884.59 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

OCT 16  WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15  WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11  WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9  WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

 OCT 7  WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

 OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 470.064 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

Mike Maharrey: Is the inflation monster still hiding under the bed?

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-10-15 20:48 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, October 15, 2024

The so-called grownups tell us everything is fine. The inflation monster is gone now.

Or is it?

Sure, most people don’t believe it’s there, but I think the inflation monster is hiding under the bed. The adults in the room say it’s not there. But, kiddos, there are signs — if you look close enough.

The headline number in last week’s September Consumer Price Index report provides a false sense of security. Annual price inflation dropped to 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021. 

Sounds as if we’re perfectly safe lying in our bed, right?

But look and listen a little more closely. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/10/15/is-the-inflation-monster-is-still-hiding-under-the-bed-003538

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

Central bankers make rare comments in favor of bigger gold stash

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-10-15 19:33 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Yvonne Yue Li
Bloomberg News
Monday, October 14, 2024

Gold purchases from central banks have been a key driver in bullion’s record-smashing rally this year. But officials rarely signal ahead of time when buying is top of mind. 

In a break to that form, reserve managers from the central banks of Mexico, Mongolia, and Czech Republic today sang the praises of bigger holdings. The comments provided unique insight into how they are viewing bullion, with the officials saying that gold as a percentage of their country’s reserves is more likely to increase in the years ahead amid a confluence of growing geopolitical tensions and lower interest rates.

“Given the context that we are facing right now — lower rates, your political tension, U.S. election, a lot of uncertainty — maybe the share of gold in our portfolios could be increasing as well,” said Joaquín Tapia, director of international reserves at Banco de Mexico.

Enkhjin Atarbaatar of Mongolia and Marek Sestak of Czech Republic echoed Tapia’s remarks. The three officials spoke together on a panel in Miami at an annual industry conference held by the London Bullion Market Association.

“In Mongolia’s case, I expect that the reserves will continue to grow, and I also expect that the share of gold in our reserves will likely increase in the future,” said Atarbaatar, director general of the financial markets department at the Central Bank of Mongolia.

Sestak, deputy executive director of the risk-management department at the Czech National Bank, responded: “I completely agree as well.” … 

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/10/14/central-bankers-make-rare-comments-in-favor-of-bigger-gold-stash/

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 193 ANDREW MAGUIRE

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:ORANG JUICE

Orange juice prices near record highs due to the worst Florida harvest

(zerohedge)

Orange Juice Prices Near Record Highs Amid Fears Of Worst Florida Harvest In A Century

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 06:45 AM

Frozen concentrated orange juice futures on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York are nearing new record highs. The squeeze in the physical markets may drastically worsen after a new citrus grove survey damage report across Florida following Hurricane Milton shows widespread damage.

Industry consultant Judy Ganes told Bloomberg that more than three million boxes of oranges may have been lost after Milton knocked fruit from branches and devastated citrus groves in the Sunshine State. She warned the next Florida harvest could be the worst since the late 1920s. 

In recent years, Hurricanes Ian and Nicole, freezing conditions, and citrus greening disease have decimated citrus groves in the state. Milton has only exacerbated those problems. Some of the latest industry figures show that US orange production is set to reach its lowest level in more than a century. 

OJ futures have surged to $5/lb, a staggering 433% jump from the Covid lows of around $1/lb. Worsening supply woes could push prices even higher. 

Meanwhile, data from the US Department of Agriculture shows that OJ cold storage levels were at their lowest point since the early 1970s. 

Brazil, the world’s top OJ producer, has ramped up OJ shipments to the US to offset sliding Florida production. But now, as we noted last month, Brazil has been hit by a devastating drought and widespread crop disease that has severely impacted yields across citrus groves. 

Rabobank analyst Andrés Padilla warned that Brazil has slipped into the “worst drought in 50 years” and “there’s really been very, very little rain across the citrus belt in the last four months, which is an important period.”

Padilla said, “The smallest crop in 35 years, plus rising citrus greening disease, plus drought — it’s the perfect storm,” adding, “The market is really stressed.”

“There’s no juice in the market,” Padilla warned, explaining, “That’s why we’re back to record high prices.” 

This only means OJ supermarket prices could scream higher from here. Global inflation jumped the most in 18 months in September. 

Whoops. 

VP Harris has offered a potential policy response of Communist-style price controls. This is a terrible idea because these types of policies create shortages.

Meanwhile, egg prices at the supermarket…

About a year ago, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, warned in a Bloomberg interview that the current global food crisis is ‘much worse than 2008’. 

.

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.66 PTS OR 0.05%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 31.94 PTS OR 0.16%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 730.25 PTS OR 1.83%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.49%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1127 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1247 Oil UP TO 70.72 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.31 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.1127

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1247

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 1.66 PTS OR 0.05%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 31.94 PTS OR .16%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 730.25 POINTS OR 1.83%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL MIXED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  103.02 EURO FALLS TO 1.0896 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.941 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.23…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.1935 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.424 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.904

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.059

3j Gold at $2683.60 /Silver at: 32.04  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 10/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.10

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.23  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.940% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8623 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9397  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.025 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.294 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.925 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.21…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.113 DOWN 13 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.126 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.904 DOWN 10 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Flat Near All Time High As ASML Sends Global Shockwaves

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 08:19 AM

Futures are mixed as chip stocks recover partially from Tuesday’s rout and as traders looked ahead to more major earnings. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.1%, a day after a profit warning from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML rattled sentiment, and boosted by an across the board beat from Morgan Stanley which jumps 3%, Nasdaq 100 futs are up 0.2% with Nvidia rising 0.8% after sinking nearly 5% on Tuesday. Global equities trade mostly lower on follow through after ASML’s booking miss weighed on Semis and in turn broader markets (ASML call 9am EST today // Tokyo Electron -9%/SK Hynix -2% etc/Taiwan Semi -2% overseas overnight // watch for TSM earnings tomorrow). FTSE +55bps/DAX -35bps/CAC -50bps/Shanghai +5bps/Hang Seng -16bps/Nikkei -1.83%. Bond yields are lower with the 10Y yield dropping to just above 4.00%, the Bloomberg dollar index is unchanged. Commodities are mixed: precious metals are higher, while base metals are lower; oil edged higher as Israel said it was keeping options open in how to attack Iran: UST10yr -3bps @ 4.00% // WTI -$0.35 @ $70.20 // Bitcoin +2.10% @ $68,055. Main event for now is still earnings with ABT, CFG, FHN, MS, PLD, SYF, USB reporting pre open // AA, CCI, CSX, DFS, FR, KMI, PPG, REXR, SLG, STLD post close. Focus today in US will be earnings (ABT, MS, PLD); ASML earnings call will be at 9am ET.

In premarket trading, Morgan Stanley shares jumped 3.4% after the bank beat expectations across the board. ASML slid another 4% on continued follow through of light 3q orders (NVDA +70bps, AMD +50bps recovering); UAL is down 0.6% after better revs/eps/$1.5bn buyback (call 10:30am); JB Hunt Transport shares rose 7% in US premarket trading, after the logistics company’s third-quarter profit topped the analyst estimates. Among the biggest laggards was Qualcomm Inc., which fell on reports that it will likely postpone its offer to buy Intel Corp. until after the US presidential election. CSCO rose 1.5% on u/g away; NVCR +32% on FDA approval of Optune Lua Treatment. Here are some other notable pre-market movers:

• Interactive Brokers slumped drops 3% after the trading platform reported adjusted earnings that trailed the average analyst estimates.
• JB Hunt (JBHT) gains 7% after the logistics company’s 3Q profit topped estimates. The company said demand for its biggest segment — intermodal service — improved throughout the quarter, supported by strong performance from its rail providers.
• Novocure (NVCR) soars 24% after the oncology company said the US Food and Drug Administration approved Optune Lua to treat metastatic non-small cell lung cancer in adults who have progressed on or after a platinum-based regimen.
• Penguin Solutions (PENG) slides 14% after the semiconductor devices firm’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share missed consensus estimates.
• Synchrony Financial (SYF) rises 3% after reporting earnings per share for the 3Q that beat the average analyst estimate

ASML’s slide Tuesday sent ripples across the industry, resulting in more than $420 billion of market value loss for an index of US-traded chip stocks and the largest Asian peers. While the weakness in names like Nvidia and ASML has an impact on the broader market, Peter Fitzgerald, chief investment officer for macro and multi-asset at Aviva Investors, pointed to the strength of demand for artificial intelligence as well as supportive central bank policy.

“If the Federal Reserve is going to continue to ease and cut rates between now and the end of next year, we are in the soft landing,” Gerard Cassidy, head of US bank equity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said on Bloomberg TV. That would be supportive for investment banking, especially initial public offerings and mergers and acquisitions, he said.

The pound fell 0.6% below $1.30 for the first time since August and money markets bolstered wagers on Bank of England rate cuts after UK inflation slipped below the BOE’s 2% target for the first time since April ’21 (YoY headline 1.7% vs 1.9% cons // market now pricing more rate cuts in ’24). London’s FTSE 100 outperformed European stock indexes and yields on UK gilts tumbled. China announced that their housing minister along with officials from the MOF and PBOC will hold a press conference tomorrow which will likely provide details on new property support measures

Europe’s Stoxx 600 index retreated 0.4% after ASML extended losses and fell another 3.5% after yesterday’s 15.6% decline. LVMH and Salvatore Ferragamo SpA led the retreat in luxury stocks after weak updates, both slumping as much as 7%. Major European markets are mixed: UK stocks outperform as a result of lower than expected CPI print (Core CPI prints 3.2% YoY vs. 3.4% survey vs. 3.6% prior), with the FTSE 100 rising 0.7% as most of its regional peers decline. European stocks have been hampered by a double-dose of negative earnings news from ASML and LVMH. EU Most Short and EU Defence are higher; Periphery Banks and China Exposed Consumer are among the underperforming baskets. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:

• Teleperformance rises as much as 6.3%, outperforming amid a decline in French stocks, as Kepler Cheuvreux raises its recommendation on the customer-contact services firm to buy from hold
• Whitbread shares advance as much as 4.8% after the Premier Inn owner reported first-half revenue that met consensus estimates. The company also said it was making “excellent progress” on its five-year plan
• Rio Tinto’s London-listed shares edged about 0.9% higher after third-quarter earnings met analysts’ expectations. However, softer demand from China meant iron ore shipments rose only marginally, while analysts also noted ongoing issues at the miner’s Kennecott operation
• Quilter advances as much as 11%, to highest since April 2022, after the wealth-management firm delivered net flows significantly ahead of expectations in the third quarter
• ASML shares extend a decline on Wednesday, a day after the chip-equipment maker reduced 2025 guidance and reported weaker-than-expected quarterly bookings. A rout of its European peers also deepened
• LVMH shares dropped as much as 7.5% in Paris trading to its lowest level in over two years, after the luxury-goods company missed estimates for third-quarter organic sales in its important fashion & leather goods unit
• Adidas shares fall as much as 5.2% as a guidance upgrade from the German sportswear firm failed to impress investors, with the stock still up over 25% in 2024. Baader says the new numbers were already reflected in consensus estimates
• Ipsos falls as much as 12%, the most since July 2023, after the market and consumer analytics firm updated its guidance for 2024 and published preliminary 3Q revenue figures
• Kinnevik falls as much as 11%, the most since June, after the Swedish investment company reported its latest earnings, showing a 5% sequential drop in net asset values and a 14% decline year-on-year
• Nel shares drop as much as 6.6% as analysts highlight weak order intake for the hydrogen technology supplier, and commentary which suggests a cautious outlook for the market next year

Earlier in the session, a key Asian index declined to its lowest level in three weeks, driven by losses in chipmaker shares. Chinese stocks fell. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1%, with TSMC, Tokyo Electron and Samsung Electronics among the biggest contributors to the decline. Their weakness weighed on the tech-heavy markets of South Korea, Taiwan and Japan. Semiconductor companies faced selling pressure after ASML Holding NV missed order estimates and cut its outlook for next year, sparking a global rout in the sector. A Bloomberg gauge of chipmakers in Asia fell as much as 3.6%.

Chinese stocks faced another day of big swings, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index ending lower for the second straight day and coming close to entering a correction. A lack of clarity over the extent of fiscal stimulus, as well as muted economic data, has cooled sentiment toward the market.  On the other hand, a Bloomberg gauge of China’s property shares surged as much as 8.3% as markets prepared for a joint news conference to be held by government officials including the housing minister and central bank on Thursday.

“It’s mostly a wake up call to reality” for many investors in artificial intelligence stocks, Olivier d’Assier, head of investment research at SimCorp, told Bloomberg Radio. “Analysts or investors had outsized expectations for sales and earnings, so I think it’s a bit of a reality check but not yet a red flag for the global economy.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady; the pound falls 0.4% and earlier dipped below $1.30 for the first time since Aug. 20 after UK inflation slowed more than expected in September. Traders were quick to increase bets on interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England, boosting gilts.

In rates, treasuries are richer across the curve amid steeper gains for gilts after UK inflation slowed more than expected in September. UK yield curve steepened as OIS contracts priced in a more aggressive path of rate cuts by the Bank of England this year and next year. Treasury yields are lower by 2bp-2.5bp across a slightly flatter curve as long-end outperforms; US 10-year is down ~2bp at 4.01% with gilts in the sector outperforming by 6bp; UK 10-year gilt yields fall 8 bps to 4.08%. The US session is expected to include more bank bond offerings following JPMorgan’s four-part transaction Tuesday.

In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI rising 0.3% to $70.80 a barrel after slumping on Tuesday, as traders continued to monitor the risk of escalation in the Middle East and the outlook for next year. Gold surged $16 to a new all time high of $2,679/oz as investors turned their attention to the upcoming US election, with polls forecasting a razor-thin contest with less than three weeks to go. . Spot gold climbs

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes the latest MBA Mortgage Applications (which plunged 17.0% after sliding 5.1% the previous week) and the October New York Fed services business activity and September import/export prices (8:30am); no Fed members scheduled for Wednesday

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,862.25
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 518.87
• MXAP down 0.9% to 190.10
• MXAPJ down 0.6% to 604.62
• Nikkei down 1.8% to 39,180.30
• Topix down 1.2% to 2,690.66
• Hang Seng Index down 0.2% to 20,286.85
• Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,202.95
• Sensex down 0.2% to 81,631.61
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.4% to 8,284.75
• Kospi down 0.9% to 2,610.36
• German 10Y yield down 3 bps at 2.20%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.0880
• Brent Futures little changed at $74.23/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,677.53
• US Dollar Index up 0.11% to 103.38

Top Overnight News

• Chinese property-developer stocks rallied on speculation the government and central bank will announce new measures to boost the housing sector at a joint briefing scheduled for Thursday. BBG
• Adidas shares slide in European trading despite the company issuing a modest upside preannouncement on Q3 GMs/op. income and nudging up its full-year op. income guidance (they now see op. income of EU1.2B vs. the prior forecast of EU1B) as the revenue performance was approximately inline. RTRS
• Saudi Arabia is entering a new phase of austerity as the Kingdom dials back on aggressive spending amid a drop in oil revenue. FT
• UK inflation in Sept tumbled sharply, spurring calls for more aggressive BOE easing (the headline CPI sank to +1.7% in Sept, down 50bp from +2.2% in Aug and below the Street forecast of +1.9%). RTRS
• Indonesia is blocking sales of the iPhone 16 after Apple failed to meet its investment commitments in the country. SCMP
• Georgia judge blocks a new rule that would have required county election workers in the state to count ballots by hand (many worried this rule would have delayed the state reporting its results). WaPo
• Donald Trump has elevated his threat to impose sweeping tariffs on imported cars including from Mexico and the EU, placing increased US trade protectionism at the heart of his agenda if he wins a new White House term. FT
• Elon Musk has given nearly $75mn to help Donald Trump’s bid to win back the White House, as the world’s richest man tries to influence the outcome of next month’s US presidential election. FT
• Private equity investors are selling second-hand stakes in ageing funds at a blistering pace this year, as pensions and endowments find ways to get out of unlisted investments amid a slump in deal activity that has curtailed cash payouts. FT
• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said the US economy is performing quite well and he is confident inflation will get back to the 2% target, while he doesn’t have a recession in his outlook but expects inflation to be choppy and employment to stay robust. Bostic also noted his dot was for 25bps more in 2024 beyond the 50bps September cut and is keeping his options open.
• JPMorgan sees good chances of a US economy soft landing; expects caution to Chinese stocks to continue; Fed is facing challenges managing the impact of supply chain and inflation from geopolitics.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with early declines seen as the risk-off mood rolled over into the region after Wall St pulled back from record levels with global sentiment sapped by disappointing earnings updates from ASML and LVMH. ASX 200 was restrained as weakness in tech and consumer stocks overshadowed the gains in financials and real estate,  while miners were also lacklustre with Rio Tinto shares pressured following its quarterly update. Nikkei 225 underperformed after slipping beneath the 40k level and amid disappointing Machinery Orders.     Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp clawed back opening losses following the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and with China to hold a press briefing tomorrow on promoting the steady and healthy development of the property sector.

Top Asian News

• BoJ announces the continuation of relaxation of terms and conditions for securities lending facility for cheapest-to-deliver issues
• BoJ Governor Ueda to visit China from Oct 17-18; attending meeting of central bank governors from Japan, China, South Korea
• Chinese President Xi said China is willing to be a partner and friend with the US, while he added the success of China and the US is an opportunity for each other and both countries should boost each other’s development rather than be an obstacle, according to state media.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said in his annual policy address that they plan to reduce wait times for public housing and will streamline procedures for companies seeking to list in Hong Kong as they seek to attract international enterprises listings. Lee also announced to cut duties on liquor with an import price of more than HKD 200 to 10% from 100% for the amount above HKD 200, while it was later reported that Hong Kong is to relax mortgage rules for some homes.
• BoJ’s Adachi says the risk of upward pressure heightening from the bigger-than-expected JPY fall has reduced significantly. Markets have stabilised when compared to when there was huge volatility in August.
• BoJ Board Member Adachi said conditions are already in place for the BoJ to start normalising monetary policy and it must take rate hikes in several stages, but added they must avoid drastic policy change that could stoke fear of a return to deflation. Adachi said the BoJ will raise rates at a very moderate pace and maintain an accommodative financial environment until underlying inflation stably and sustainably hits 2%, while he also stated that hiking rates at a rapid pace after the inflation target is met could cause a big shock to economy and the BoJ should raise rates in several stages to achieve smooth policy normalisation. Furthermore, he said the BoJ must avoid a premature rate hike, which means it should use conservative estimates in gauging Japan’s natural rate of interest.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) are mostly trading in negative territory, with sentiment hit after poor earnings from heavyweights ASML and LVMH. The FTSE 100 (+0.6%) is the European outperformer, assisted by the cooler-than-expected UK inflation report. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Energy is towards the top of the pile, attempting to recoup some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Consumer Products is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in LVMH (-3.60%), whilst ASML (-3.8%) acts as a drag on Tech. US Equity Futures (ES U/C NQ +0.1% RTY +0.2%) are trading mixed, with the ES and NQ flat, taking a breather from the losses seen in the prior session, whilst the RTY sees very modest gains. China’s Cyberspace regulator has called for a systematic examination of the risks of Intel (INTC) products. Intel -4% pre-market. Google (GOOGL) says multiple Google Cloud products are impacted in the US-West2 Region, US-West2-A Zone. European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Energy is towards the top of the pile, attempting to recoup some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Consumer Products is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in LVMH (-3.60%), whilst ASML (-3.8%) acts as a drag on Tech.

Top European News

• Italy’s Economy Minister Giorgetti says the government has reached a deal with the EU over a seven year adjustment path for deficit and debt

FX

• USD is mixed vs. peers. DXY has traded near the upper-end of today’s 103.17-39 range, but in recent trade has pulled back from best levels to reside towards the mid-point of today’s confines. Docket ahead includes US import and export prices.
• EUR is ever so slightly firmer vs. the USD but with EUR/USD attempting to climb back above 1.09 in recent trade. Fresh macro drivers for the EZ remain light in the run up to Thursday’s ECB policy announcement. For now, EUR/USD is managing to hold above its 200DMA at 1.0872.
• GBP is the worst performer across the majors in the wake of soft UK inflation data which saw headline Y/Y CPI slip further below target and services inflation decline to 4.9% vs. the MPC forecast of 5.5%. Cable has slipped onto a 1.29 handle for the first time since August 20th; technicians flag the 100DMA at 1.2952.
• Despite an attempted recovery vs. the USD yesterday, JPY is once again struggling against the greenback. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 149.48.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD by similar magnitudes. NZD/USD was in focus overnight and saw some weakness following CPI metrics which saw a softer-than-expected outturn for Q/Q CPI.

Fixed Income

• Bunds are firmer in a continuation of the upside seen in Tuesday’s session. Initial upside stemmed from cooler-than-expected UK CPI and has since extended to a 134.12 peak.
• Gilts gapped higher by 68 ticks and then extended further to a 97.76 multi-week peak after softer-than-expected UK inflation. A release which has all but cemented a November cut and makes one in December very likely as well.
• USTs are holding in the green, taking the lead from the above but yet to extend much further with US specifics light. USTs are just off a 112-20 peak, resistance at 112-21 from last week and thereafter 112-24 and 112-28+.
• UK sells GBP 3.5bln 4.0% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.42x (prev. 2.98x), average yield 3.988% (prev. 3.814%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 1.6bps)
• Germany sells EUR 0.822bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.50% 2054 and EUR 0.854bln vs. exp. EUR 1bln 0.0% 2050 Bund.

Commodities

• Crude began the European session on a firmer footing as the complex took a breather from recent pronounced pressure. However, as the morning progressed oil prices edged lower, with Brent’Dec now residing near session lows at USD 74/bbl.
• Spot gold is bid, holding around a USD 2677/oz peak with support coming from the generally tentative risk tone (influenced by earnings), soft yields and ongoing geopolitical concern.
• Base metals are firmer paring back some of the pressure seen in yesterday’s session which was driven by the performance of China and continued assessment of recent stimulus efforts.
• Indian Gold imports (Sep) USD 4.39bln vs. USD 10.06bln in August, according to the Trade Ministry.
• Qatar has set the December term price for Al-Shaheen oil at USD 1.93bbl above Dubai quotes which is down vs. November, according to Reuters sources

Geopolitics

• Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s attack is ready, according to CNN sources.
• “An Israeli official says a letter received from senior US officials on Gaza and is being carefully reviewed by Israeli security officials”, via Sky News Arabia
• Israel’s army presented PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant with a list of targets for a possible attack on Iran, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Al Jazeera.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government began disabling GPS in Tel Aviv in anticipation of the Iranian response to a possible Israeli attack, according to Al Arabiya.
• IDF said it killed a large number of Hezbollah members in raids and exchanges of fire in southern Lebanon during the last day, while it added that it hit more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations including weapons stores.
• Israel targeted a site in the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since Friday.
•    
• Israel’s army said about 50 rockets were detected from Lebanon towards the Upper Galilee, and a number of them were intercepted, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is to visit Jordan, Egypt and Turkey as part of a diplomatic reach out to countries in the region ‘to end genocide, atrocity and aggression’, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
• Iran has told the UN that it is prepared for a decisive response if Israel attacks it, via journalist Elster.

US event calendar

• 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications -17%, prior -5.1%
• 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index ex Petroleu, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
• 08:30: Sept. Import Price Index YoY, est. 0%, prior 0.8%
• 08:30: Oct. New York Fed Services Business, prior 0.5
• 08:30: Sept. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.4%, prior -0.7%
• 08:30: Sept. Export Price Index YoY, prior -0.7%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I went to a parent’s evening last night for 9-yr old Maisie and the Maths teacher flew through how they teach long division nowadays so we could help Maisie at home if needed. I must admit I didn’t have a clue what she was going on about, but given I’ve worked with numbers for nearly 30 years with many before that studying, I was too embarrassed to say and just nodded along. Then I accidentally spent most of the time with the English teacher, who is a Liverpool fan, speaking about the season so far. Fair to say I got a slight reprimand when I got home. I’m not looking forward to my domestic appraisal. Strengths: “sports”. Weaknesses: “everything else”.

Some rare weakness has come through in risk over the last 24 hours, with the S&P 500 (-0.76%) falling back from its record high the previous day. That followed significant disappointment among chipmakers after ASML’s earnings (-15.64% and its worst day since June 1998) were beneath expectations, whilst energy stocks also took a hit from the latest decline in oil prices. Indeed, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell -5.28% over the day, whilst Nvidia was down by a similar -4.69% partly also because of the previous night’s story that the US was mulling stricter chip export rules for certain countries.

Even with the tech sell-off, in some ways the most important move yesterday was the decline in oil prices, with Brent crude (-4.14%) down for a third consecutive day to $74.25/bbl. That followed the Washington Post report we mentioned yesterday, saying that Israel would strike military infrastructure in Iran, and not oil or nuclear facilities. So that took out some of the geopolitical risk premium from oil prices, but there remains significant concern about an escalatory spiral and the potential for a wider conflict, as Iran have said that they would respond to any Israeli attack.

That decline in oil prices meant investors became more relaxed about inflationary pressures, which have moved increasingly onto the radar over recent weeks. In fact, the 5yr US inflation swap fell by -4.1bps yesterday to 2.48%, marking its biggest daily decline in over a month. And in turn, investors dialled up the likelihood of rate cuts over the months ahead, with the rate priced in for the Fed’s June 2025 meeting falling -2.8bps to 3.62%. That also came as the New York Fed’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations showed that debt delinquency expectations moved higher once again, with the mean probability of not being able to make a minimum debt payment over the next 3 months rising to 14.2%, which is the highest since April 2020 at the height of the pandemic.

With rate cut expectations moving higher again, that led to a sovereign bond rally on both sides of the Atlantic. In the US, that meant the 10yr Treasury fell -6.7bps to 4.03%, although the 2yr yield was down by a smaller -0.9bps to 3.95%. The decline was most pronounced at the long-end, with 30yr yields (-9.1bps) seeing their sharpest decline since the vol shock on August 2.

Over in Europe, bonds saw a similar rally, with yields on 10yr bunds (-5.2bps), OATs (-7.8bps) and BTPs (-8.4bps) all moving lower. This also meant that the spread of Italian yields over bunds tightened to just 124bps, which is the tightest since March when it fell to 122bps. This came ahead of the Italian government last night announcing its 2025 Budget Bill, which our European economists’ previewed in a note earlier yesterday. Meanwhile, in a separate report overnight ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting, they discuss what the recent oil market volatility may imply for ECB policy.

For equities, it was a tougher day that saw the major indices struggle on both sides of the Atlantic. In large part that was driven by the semiconductor drop mentioned above, and the Euro STOXX 50 (-1.87%) saw a major decline given ASML’s weighting in the index, which itself was down -15.64%. In fact, it was the worst day for the Euro STOXX 50 since early August, when the underwhelming jobs report led to significant market turmoil. The plunge in ASML’s share price came as the company reported Q3 bookings of EUR 2.6bn, around half that expected by analysts, and lowered its 2025 guidance. The stock is now -33% down from its July peak amid more cautious demand for its advanced chip-making equipment and more restrictions on where it can export.

After the European close, we also had disappointing results from luxury giant LVMH, as weaker demand in China saw the company’s key luxury unit post its weakest revenue growth since the early phase of the Covid pandemic. Its ADRs fell by -7.94% in US trading and looks set to give up all the gains (and more) made since China’s stimulus announcement. Elsewhere, it wasn’t quite as bad, but the STOXX 600 was still down -0.80%, and in the US the S&P 500 fell -0.76%. The tech underperformance saw the NASDAQ slip by -1.01%, though the Mag-7 (-0.58%) actually outperformed slightly as the mega caps were fairly stable aside from Nvidia’s -4.69% fall. Defensive sectors including consumer staples (+0.64%) and utilities (+0.45%) outperformed within the S&P 500.

US banks also outperformed amid amidst positive earnings results, with the KBW Bank Index (+0.28%) rising to its highest level since April 2022. The gains were more pronounced for smaller banks, as the KBW Regional Banking Index advanced +1.18%. By contrast, some of the larger banks reporting actually saw their share price fall, with Citigroup down -5.11% despite beating headline estimates.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower after ASML earnings with the Nikkei leading the losses (-2.05%), followed by the KOSPI (-0.43%), and the CSI (-0.24%). By contrast, the Hang Seng (+0.90%) and the Shanghai Composite (+0.40%) are higher. S&P 500 (+0.09%) and NASDAQ futures (+0.23%) are also rebounding a bit.

Early morning data revealed an unexpected decline in Japanese core machine orders for August, which fell by -1.9% month-on-month, compared to an expected increase of +0.1% and a previous month’s decline of -0.1%.

Here in the UK, the latest employment report was reasonably positive yesterday, with unemployment ticking down to 4.0% in the three months ending August (vs. 4.1% expected). It’s true that the number of payrolled employees was down -15k in September (vs. -3k expected), but the previous month was revised upwards to show a smaller -35k decline (vs. -59k previously). Separately in Germany, the ZEW survey for October showed a decline in the current situation reading to -86.9 (vs. -84.0 expected), which was the weakest since May 2020. However, the expectations measure picked up to 13.1 (vs. 10.0 expected) after three consecutive monthly declines. Finally, the ECB’s latest quarterly Bank Lending Survey pointed to some ongoing improvement in bank credit conditions, especially for housing loans.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include the UK CPI reading for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde. Otherwise, today’s earnings releases include Morgan Stanley and Abbott Laboratories.

2B) European report

Sentiment hit by poor tech and luxury earnings; Gilts fuelled by softer CPI – Newsquawk US Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 05:55 AM

• European bourses are mostly lower, with sentiment hit following poor LVMH/ASML results; the FTSE 100 leads after the region’s cooler-than-expected inflation metrics.
• Dollar is flat, GBP is the clear underperformer after headline/services inflation figures declined more than expected.
• Bonds continue to build on the prior day’s gains, with upside also fuelled by the aforementioned UK CPI report, which has led to clear outperformance in Gilts.
• Crude is modestly lower, XAU/base metals both gain.
• Looking ahead, US Import/Export Prices, Comments from ECB’s Lagarde. Earnings from Citizens Financial Group, US Bancorp, Abbott Laboratories, Morgan Stanley.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.3%) are mostly trading in negative territory, with sentiment hit after poor earnings from heavyweights ASML and LVMH. The FTSE 100 (+0.6%) is the European outperformer, assisted by the cooler-than-expected UK inflation report.
• European sectors hold a strong negative bias; Energy is towards the top of the pile, attempting to recoup some of the hefty losses seen in the prior session. Consumer Products is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by post-earning losses in LVMH (-3.60%), whilst ASML (-3.8%) acts as a drag on Tech.
• US Equity Futures (ES U/C NQ +0.1% RTY +0.2%) are trading mixed, with the ES and NQ flat, taking a breather from the losses seen in the prior session, whilst the RTY sees very modest gains.
• China’s Cyberspace regulator has called for a systematic examination of the risks of Intel (INTC) products. Intel -4% pre-market.
• Google (GOOGL) says multiple Google Cloud products are impacted in the US-West2 Region, US-West2-A Zone.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is mixed vs. peers. DXY has traded near the upper-end of today’s 103.17-39 range, but in recent trade has pulled back from best levels to reside towards the mid-point of today’s confines. Docket ahead includes US import and export prices.
• EUR is ever so slightly firmer vs. the USD but with EUR/USD attempting to climb back above 1.09 in recent trade. Fresh macro drivers for the EZ remain light in the run up to Thursday’s ECB policy announcement. For now, EUR/USD is managing to hold above its 200DMA at 1.0872.
• GBP is the worst performer across the majors in the wake of soft UK inflation data which saw headline Y/Y CPI slip further below target and services inflation decline to 4.9% vs. the MPC forecast of 5.5%. Cable has slipped onto a 1.29 handle for the first time since August 20th; technicians flag the 100DMA at 1.2952.
• Despite an attempted recovery vs. the USD yesterday, JPY is once again struggling against the greenback. USD/JPY has ventured as high as 149.48.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD by similar magnitudes. NZD/USD was in focus overnight and saw some weakness following CPI metrics which saw a softer-than-expected outturn for Q/Q CPI.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• Bunds are firmer in a continuation of the upside seen in Tuesday’s session. Initial upside stemmed from cooler-than-expected UK CPI and has since extended to a 134.12 peak.
• Gilts gapped higher by 68 ticks and then extended further to a 97.76 multi-week peak after softer-than-expected UK inflation. A release which has all but cemented a November cut and makes one in December very likely as well.
• USTs are holding in the green, taking the lead from the above but yet to extend much further with US specifics light. USTs are just off a 112-20 peak, resistance at 112-21 from last week and thereafter 112-24 and 112-28+.
• UK sells GBP 3.5bln 4.0% 2031 Gilt: b/c 3.42x (prev. 2.98x), average yield 3.988% (prev. 3.814%), tail 0.2bps (prev. 1.6bps)
• Germany sells EUR 0.822bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.50% 2054 and EUR 0.854bln vs. exp. EUR 1bln 0.0% 2050 Bund.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude began the European session on a firmer footing as the complex took a breather from recent pronounced pressure. However, as the morning progressed oil prices edged lower, with Brent’Dec now residing near session lows at USD 74/bbl.
• Spot gold is bid, holding around a USD 2677/oz peak with support coming from the generally tentative risk tone (influenced by earnings), soft yields and ongoing geopolitical concern.
• Base metals are firmer paring back some of the pressure seen in yesterday’s session which was driven by the performance of China and continued assessment of recent stimulus efforts.
• Indian Gold imports (Sep) USD 4.39bln vs. USD 10.06bln in August, according to the Trade Ministry.
• Qatar has set the December term price for Al-Shaheen oil at USD 1.93bbl above Dubai quotes which is down vs. November, according to Reuters sources
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK CPI YY (Sep) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.9% (Prev. 2.2%); MM 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
• UK Core CPI YY (Sep) 3.2% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%); MM 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
• UK CPI Services YY (Sep) 4.9% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 5.6%); MM -0.3% (Prev. 0.4%)
• UK ONS House Prices (Aug): 2.8% Y/Y (prev. 1.8%)
• Italian Consumer Prices Final YY (Sep) 0.7% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.7%); Consumer Prices Final MM (Sep) -0.2% vs. Exp. -0.2% (Prev. -0.2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Italy’s Economy Minister Giorgetti says the government has reached a deal with the EU over a seven year adjustment path for deficit and debt

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said the US economy is performing quite well and he is confident inflation will get back to the 2% target, while he doesn’t have a recession in his outlook but expects inflation to be choppy and employment to stay robust. Bostic also noted his dot was for 25bps more in 2024 beyond the 50bps September cut and is keeping his options open.
• JPMorgan sees good chances of a US economy soft landing; expects caution to Chinese stocks to continue; Fed is facing challenges managing the impact of supply chain and inflation from geopolitics.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s attack is ready, according to CNN sources.
• “An Israeli official says a letter received from senior US officials on Gaza and is being carefully reviewed by Israeli security officials”, via Sky News Arabia
• Israel’s army presented PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant with a list of targets for a possible attack on Iran, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Al Jazeera.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government began disabling GPS in Tel Aviv in anticipation of the Iranian response to a possible Israeli attack, according to Al Arabiya.
• IDF said it killed a large number of Hezbollah members in raids and exchanges of fire in southern Lebanon during the last day, while it added that it hit more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations including weapons stores.
• Israel targeted a site in the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since Friday.
• Israel’s army said about 50 rockets were detected from Lebanon towards the Upper Galilee, and a number of them were intercepted, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is to visit Jordan, Egypt and Turkey as part of a diplomatic reach out to countries in the region ‘to end genocide, atrocity and aggression’, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.
• Iran has told the UN that it is prepared for a decisive response if Israel attacks it, via journalist Elster.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin climbs above USD 67k, as sentiment in the space continues to improve.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with early declines seen as the risk-off mood rolled over into the region after Wall St pulled back from record levels with global sentiment sapped by disappointing earnings updates from ASML and LVMH.
• ASX 200 was restrained as weakness in tech and consumer stocks overshadowed the gains in financials and real estate, while miners were also lacklustre with Rio Tinto shares pressured following its quarterly update.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed after slipping beneath the 40k level and amid disappointing Machinery Orders.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp clawed back opening losses following the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and with China to hold a press briefing tomorrow on promoting the steady and healthy development of the property sector.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• BoJ announces the continuation of relaxation of terms and conditions for securities lending facility for cheapest-to-deliver issues
• BoJ Governor Ueda to visit China from Oct 17-18; attending meeting of central bank governors from Japan, China, South Korea
• Chinese President Xi said China is willing to be a partner and friend with the US, while he added the success of China and the US is an opportunity for each other and both countries should boost each other’s development rather than be an obstacle, according to state media.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said in his annual policy address that they plan to reduce wait times for public housing and will streamline procedures for companies seeking to list in Hong Kong as they seek to attract international enterprises listings. Lee also announced to cut duties on liquor with an import price of more than HKD 200 to 10% from 100% for the amount above HKD 200, while it was later reported that Hong Kong is to relax mortgage rules for some homes.
• BoJ’s Adachi says the risk of upward pressure heightening from the bigger-than-expected JPY fall has reduced significantly. Markets have stabilised when compared to when there was huge volatility in August.
• BoJ Board Member Adachi said conditions are already in place for the BoJ to start normalising monetary policy and it must take rate hikes in several stages, but added they must avoid drastic policy change that could stoke fear of a return to deflation. Adachi said the BoJ will raise rates at a very moderate pace and maintain an accommodative financial environment until underlying inflation stably and sustainably hits 2%, while he also stated that hiking rates at a rapid pace after the inflation target is met could cause a big shock to economy and the BoJ should raise rates in several stages to achieve smooth policy normalisation. Furthermore, he said the BoJ must avoid a premature rate hike, which means it should use conservative estimates in gauging Japan’s natural rate of interest.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Aug) -1.9% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Aug) -3.4% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 8.7%)
• New Zealand CPI QQ (Q3) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%)
• New Zealand CPI YY (Q3) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 3.3%)
• RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation (Q3) 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

European futures pressured following ASML & LVMH, US bank updates due – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 01:32 AM

• APAC stocks were mixed with early declines seen post-losses on Wall Street following disappointing earnings updates from ASML and LVMH.
• Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said if forecasts are met, she sees one or two more rate cuts this year.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.7% after the cash market closed lower by 1.9% on Tuesday.
• DXY is holding above the 103 mark, EUR/USD is sub-1.09, Antipodeans lag peers.
• Israel reportedly briefed the Biden administration on the general goals of the planned attack on Iran but not on specific targets.
• Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US Import/Export Prices, Comments from ECB’s Lagarde, Supply from UK & Germany, Earnings from Citizens Financial Group, US Bancorp, Abbott Laboratories, Morgan Stanley, Prologis & Whitbread

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks predominantly closed lower with underperformance in the Nasdaq amid declines in tech as weak guidance from ASML added to the headwinds for semiconductors which were already on the back foot following reports that the US is looking to curb chip exports to some countries from Nvidia and AMD in the interest of national security. Furthermore, Energy was the worst-performing sector amid the recent fall in oil prices, while a woeful earnings report from LVMH added to the downbeat mood.
• SPX -0.76% at 5,815, NDX -1.37% at 20,160, DJIA -0.75% at 42,740, RUT +0.05% at 2,250.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed Discount Rate Minutes noted requests by five reserve banks to maintain the existing primary credit rate and requests by seven reserve banks to decrease the rate. Federal Reserve Bank directors commented on labour market conditions in which most noted improved labour availability overall, lower employee turnover, and moderate wage growth, while many directors said employers in their Districts were taking a more cautious approach to hiring, but there were few reports of widespread layoffs.
• Fed’s Bostic (2024 voter) said the US economy is performing quite well and he is confident inflation will get back to the 2% target, while he doesn’t have a recession in his outlook but expects inflation to be choppy and employment to stay robust. Bostic also noted his dot was for 25bps more in 2024 beyond the 50bps September cut and is keeping his options open.
• Fed’s Daly (2024 voter) said Fed policy is still restrictive and working to lower inflation, while continued progress on the Fed’s goals is not assured and the Fed must remain vigilant. Furthermore, she said talk of gradual rate cuts means less than it appears and if forecasts are met, she sees one or two more rate cuts this year.
• Republican Presidential Candidate Trump said regarding tariffs that 10% is hundreds of billions of dollars and the tariff has to be higher than 10% if you want companies to come into the US, while he added that if they make it 50%, companies are going to come in. Furthermore, Trump said he has the right to tell the Fed what to do on interest rates, but not order it, while he also commented that Google (GOOGL) has a lot of power which is very bad to him and responded that he would do something when asked about breaking up the Co.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with early declines seen as the risk-off mood rolled over into the region after Wall St pulled back from record levels with global sentiment sapped by disappointing earnings updates from ASML and LVMH.
• ASX 200 was restrained as weakness in tech and consumer stocks overshadowed the gains in financials and real estate, while miners were also lacklustre with Rio Tinto shares pressured following its quarterly update.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed after slipping beneath the 40k level and amid disappointing Machinery Orders.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp clawed back opening losses following the PBoC’s firm liquidity efforts and with China to hold a press briefing tomorrow on promoting the steady and healthy development of the property sector.
• US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) attempted to nurse some losses after Wall St’s recent slip from record highs.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.7% after the cash market closed lower by 1.9% on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY traded little changed after yesterday’s indecisive performance with the dollar not helped by the weak Empire Manufacturing data or the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations, while the latest Fed speak did little to shift the dial as Bostic noted his dot was for another 25bps cut this year beyond the 50bps September move and he is keeping his options open.
• EUR/USD remained contained after having failed to hold on to the 1.0900 status despite mostly better-than-expected data, while the attention for the single currency this week remains on Thursday’s ECB policy meeting.
• GBP/USD lacked direction after the recent pullback from resistance at the 1.3100 handle and as UK CPI data looms.
• USD/JPY was indecisive with pressure seen after BoJ Board Member Adachi noted that conditions are already in place for the BoJ to start normalising monetary policy and suggested they must take rate hikes in several stages, while the declines were then pared as Adachi also stated that BoJ will raise rates at a very moderate pace and warned against hiking rates at a rapid pace.
• Antipodeans were choppy with initial weakness seen amid the risk aversion and after mixed New Zealand Inflation data in which CPI YY matched estimates but the Q/Q figure printed softer than expected. Nonetheless, the currencies then bounced off their lows and returned to relatively flat territory.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures sat around the prior day’s best levels after benefitting from lower oil prices and soft Canadian inflation.
• Bund futures held on to most of the recent gains but with further upside capped heading into today’s Bund issuances.
• 10yr JGB futures tracked the advances in global peers and returned to the 144.00 level, while prices also benefitted from the risk-off mood in Japan and disappointing Machinery Orders.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures saw some mild reprieve after WTI rebounded from the USD 70/bbl level but with the recovery only marginal compared to the recent slump whereby prices fell on China demand concerns and with Israel reportedly to avoid targeting Iran oil and nuclear facilities, while the latest inventory data releases are delayed for a day owing to the recent federal holiday.
• Spot gold remained underpinned albeit with gains limited amid an uneventful dollar.
• Copper futures picked themselves up from this week’s trough although price action was capped amid the mixed risk tone.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin extended on gains overnight and climbed back above the USD 67,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese President Xi said China is willing to be a partner and friend with the US, while he added the success of China and the US is an opportunity for each other and both countries should boost each other’s development rather than be an obstacle, according to state media.
• Hong Kong Chief Executive Lee said in his annual policy address that they plan to reduce wait times for public housing and will streamline procedures for companies seeking to list in Hong Kong as they seek to attract international enterprises listings. Lee also announced to cut duties on liquor with an import price of more than HKD 200 to 10% from 100% for the amount above HKD 200, while it was later reported that Hong Kong is to relax mortgage rules for some homes.
• BoJ Board Member Adachi said conditions are already in place for the BoJ to start normalising monetary policy and it must take rate hikes in several stages, but added they must avoid drastic policy change that could stoke fear of a return to deflation. Adachi said the BoJ will raise rates at a very moderate pace and maintain an accommodative financial environment until underlying inflation stably and sustainably hits 2%, while he also stated that hiking rates at a rapid pace after the inflation target is met could cause a big shock to economy and the BoJ should raise rates in several stages to achieve smooth policy normalisation. Furthermore, he said the BoJ must avoid a premature rate hike, which means it should use conservative estimates in gauging Japan’s natural rate of interest.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Machinery Orders MM (Aug) -1.9% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%)
• Japanese Machinery Orders YY (Aug) -3.4% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 8.7%)
• New Zealand CPI QQ (Q3) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.4%)
• New Zealand CPI YY (Q3) 2.2% vs. Exp. 2.2% (Prev. 3.3%)
• RBNZ Sectoral Factor Model Inflation (Q3) 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s army presented PM Netanyahu and Defence Minister Gallant with a list of targets for a possible attack on Iran, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Al Jazeera.
• Israeli officials briefed on the planning noted that even if Israel avoids Iran’s nuclear enrichment and oil sites, Israel could still hit a wide array of military targets, as well as military bases and major government buildings, according to NYT.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu’s government began disabling GPS in Tel Aviv in anticipation of the Iranian response to a possible Israeli attack, according to Al Arabiya.
• Israel reportedly briefed the Biden administration on the general goals of the planned attack on Iran but not on specific targets, while sources aware of the details said the goals can change even in the 90th minute, according to Kann News.
• Washington believes it has obtained guarantees that Israel will not target nuclear or oil sites in Iran, but warned these guarantees are not conclusively confirmed and circumstances may change. Officials also noted that Israel’s track record on fulfilling assurances is mixed and has often reflected politics that have upended Washington’s expectations, according to AP.
• IDF said it killed a large number of Hezbollah members in raids and exchanges of fire in southern Lebanon during the last day, while it added that it hit more than 140 targets in more than 50 locations including weapons stores.
• Israel targeted a site in the southern suburbs of Beirut for the first time since Friday.
• Israel’s army said about 50 rockets were detected from Lebanon towards the Upper Galilee, and a number of them were intercepted, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi is to visit Jordan, Egypt and Turkey as part of a diplomatic reach out to countries in the region ‘to end genocide, atrocity and aggression’, according to Iran’s Foreign Ministry.

OTHER

• White House said reports of North Korean troops being used by Russia are concerning.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• EU reportedly readies US trade targets if election brings Trump tariffs, according to Bloomberg.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is putting together plans for up to GBP 40bln worth of tax increases and spending reductions to fill the “GBP 22bln black hole” in her budget on October 30th, according to The Times.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3C JAPAN

3D. CHINA

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

EU

These guys are the first to go in a financial crisis!

(zerohedge)

Louis Vuitton Owner LVMH Sinks As Luxury Demand Cools For Handbags, Wine, & Watches

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 04:15 AM

The world’s largest luxury goods company reported third-quarter organic sales that missed the average analyst expectations tracked by Bloomberg. This signals a broader slowdown across luxury markets in China and the West. The results raise concerns about cost-conscious consumers as central banks reverse interest rate hiking cycles with interest rate cuts to prevent a hard economic landing in the global economy.

Paris-based LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, commonly known as LVMH, unexpectedly reported lower sales in the third quarter, primarily due to the pullback in Chinese luxury demand. It reported organic revenue of -3%, missing the Bloomberg Consensus of +.39%. Each division, from fashion to perfumes to watches to fine wine, missed analyst expectations. It reported revenue of 19.94 billion euros, which missed the 20.05 billion euro estimate. 

Here’s a snapshot of LVMH’s third-quarter earnings (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Organic revenue -3%, estimate +0.93% (Bloomberg Consensus)
• Fashion & Leather Goods organic sales -5%, estimate +0.48%
• Wines & Spirits organic sales -7%, estimate -2.41%
• Perfumes & Cosmetics organic sales +3%, estimate +4.26%
• Watches & Jewelry organic sales -4%, estimate -3.71%
• Selective Retailing organic sales +2%, estimate +5.09%
• Revenue EU19.08 billion, -4.4% y/y, estimate EU20.05 billion
• Fashion & Leather Goods revenue EU9.15 billion, -6.1% y/y, estimate EU9.74 billion
• Wines & Spirits revenue EU1.39 billion, -8.2% y/y, estimate EU1.47 billion
• Perfume & Cosmetics revenue EU2.01 billion, +1% y/y, estimate EU2.07 billion
• Watches & Jewelry revenue EU2.39 billion, -5.5% y/y, estimate EU2.43 billion

LVMH’s outlook was a dismal one that only suggests consumers in its top markets remain under pressure through year-end: 

In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands, drawing on the authenticity and quality of its products, excellence in distribution and agile organization. 

After the earnings report, RBC Capital Markets analyst Piral Dadhania told clients that results “indicate a more pronounced slowdown than expected.”

The pandemic-era spending boom that drove luxury sales has run out of steam around the world. In the US, low/mid-tier consumers are cost-conscious and heavily indebted with depleted savings. The luxury behemoth is considered a bellwether for the entire sector. 

In markets, LVMH ADRs dropped 6% late in the session, just 50bps from entering a bear market for the year. 

As LVMH shares decline, Bernard Arnault’s luxury empire takes a hit, reducing his net worth by billions of dollars (according to Bloomberg data):

Rivals Ralph Lauren Corp., Estee Lauder Cos, and the ADRs of Gucci owner Kering SA also fell in New York as growing concerns mounted among traders that consumers were losing momentum.

END

UK

Morale hits rock bottom with UK police force as we witness a mass exodus

(zerohedge)

As Morale Hits Rock Bottom, UK Police Exodus Throws Planned Expansion Into Disarray

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Britain’s Labour party’s ambitious plan to put 13,000 extra police officers on the streets is “unobtainable” – as officers are quitting in record numbers, The Telegraph reports.

According to Tiff Lynch, the acting chairwoman of the Police Federation, the situation is dire – with Home Office figures showing that voluntary resignations among police officers have hit an all-time high, with more than 5,000 quitting last year – 3.4% of the workforce, which is more than double the rate of just four years ago. What’s worse, a Federation survey found that 20% of officers are planning to leave within the next two years or sooner, adding up to nearly 29,000 officers ready to walk out.

“They have suffered an almost 20 per cent pay cut in real terms since 2010. How can this be fair?” said Lynch,” who notes that this year’s 4.75% pay rise was far below the 6% recommended by the National Police Chiefs’ Council. Further deepening resentment is the fact that millions of other public sector workers received more generous raises.

“The Government has made very clear its current policing priority is taking back our streets, through investment in extra neighbourhood police officers, to drive down the crimes blighting our local communities including antisocial behaviour and shocking levels of shoplifting,” said Lynch.

“In its own words, ‘victims are being let down’. The only way to achieve this is through a sustained recruitment and retention programme. But I am concerned with the current track record in attrition rates, it seems unattainable.“

The federation – which represents grassroots officers up to the rank of chief inspector, is demanding the reinstatement of collective pay bargaining, a system that allowed officers to negotiate pay directly with their employers. Instead, since 2014, the Police Remuneration Review Body has set pay levels with no means for officers to negotiate or even arbitrate when disputes arise. The Federation has boycotted this body since 2021. Lynch has warned that if the government doesn’t agree to reinstate collective bargaining, the Federation will ballot its 150,000 members on whether they want to seek the right to take industrial action.

The consequences of this pay dispute are already evident. In the year leading up to March 2024, 9,080 officers left the force – 6.2% of the workforce, and the second highest on record. While recruitment efforts have so far managed to offset some of these losses, with overall police numbers rising by 0.2% to 147,746, Lynch says that without a sustained recruitment-and-retention strategy, Labour’s target of 13,000 extra neighborhood police is simply unattainable.

According to the report, morale is at rock bottom.

A Home Office spokesman responded by saying that “This Government will work collaboratively with policing to address challenges and ensure officers have the right support, resources and recognition – and to improve standards.

“As part of our mission to deliver safer streets, we will restore neighbourhood policing and support forces to rebuild relationships with their local communities.”

But for many frontline officers, these promises feel like too little, too late. Unless real change comes soon, the exodus of officers will continue – and with it, the hopes of restoring neighborhood policing may slip further out of reach.

END

GERMANY

amazing! Germany freezes school budgets while allocating billions for migrant housing

(zerohedge/ReMix)

Berlin Freezes School Budgets While Allocating Billions For Migrant Housing

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Berlin’s public schools are facing a budget freeze that has halted spending on key activities, including school trips, as the city contends with major financial challenges.

The freeze follows the Berlin House of Representatives’ decision to allocate an additional €1.3 billion for the accommodation of migrants, raising concerns about the city’s spending priorities.

In a letter issued on Wednesday, Education State Secretary Christina Henke (CDU) informed school administrators that they are no longer allowed to enter into “financially effective” contracts that extend into the next financial year. According to Tagesspiegel, this restriction includes school trips, where teachers’ travel expenses — typically reimbursed by the state — will no longer be covered.

Sven Zimmerschied, head of Friedensburg High School in Charlottenburg and board member of the Berlin Secondary School Heads’ Association, expressed his concerns over the sudden halt.

“On Monday I signed the leasing contract for a new copier,” he said, ahead of the ban.

The budget freeze, he explained, will disrupt many routine activities, though he noted that exceptions could be made in cases of “indispensability and urgency.”

The move comes as the city struggles to balance its budget following the House of Representatives’ decision in June to spend an additional €1.3 billion on the accommodation of asylum seekers. This includes expanding tent cities at former airports in Tegel and Tempelhof, renting more hotel space, and setting up 16 new locations for container housing.

During the summer, Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU) warned that Berlin’s capacity to accommodate more refugees was nearing its limit.

“The pressure is increasing. We already have no places,” Wegner said.

The billions set aside have funded new emergency housing but at the cost of cuts to other areas, including education.

The budget freeze has drawn criticism, with many wondering why funds are available for migrant accommodation but not for school activities.

For now, schools must seek special approval for any expense through a written request to education authorities. Essential programs like school trips remain uncertain.

Read more here…

END

 

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

end

ISRAEL/IRAN

Inside Israel’s secret 20-year plan to strike Iran: Advanced weapons unveiled

From long-range missiles to bunker-busting bombs, Israel has spent decades and billions developing specialized munitions for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

By UDI ETSIONOCTOBER 16, 2024 00:30Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2024 03:47

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-824803&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Over recent decades, Israel’s defense establishment has invested billions in preparing for a potential strike on Iran, developing specialized munitions along the way. Some of these capabilities were only revealed after being sold to foreign air forces. Here’s what can be disclosed amidst these preparations.

Last month, Israel conducted another strike in Yemen, deploying F-15 jets from a base 1,800 kilometers away, showcasing its renowned improvisation skills. These aircraft, initially designed for air combat, were modified in Israel for strike missions. The Israeli Air Force also equipped them to carry modern munitions from both American and Israeli manufacturers.

However, an attack on Iran presents a far more complex challenge, despite the similar distance.

Iran’s nuclear facilities and ballistic missile bases are deeply embedded underground, in contrast to less-protected targets like oil terminals. Additionally, Iran operates an advanced air defense system, primarily domestically developed. According to their claims, yet to be tested, this system matches the capabilities of Russian systems like the S-300, which can intercept missiles launched by Israel. However, the Israeli-attributed strike on Isfahan after Iran’s April attack was not intercepted by these advanced defenses. Iran also maintains an outdated fleet, including Russian MiG-29s and American F-14s from the Shah’s era, which continue to operate despite international sanctions.

In light of these challenges, Israel’s defense forces have spent 20 years preparing for a possible strike on Iran, investing billions of dollars and shekels. This investment includes developing specialized munitions, some of which even the U.S. declined to sell to Israel, as well as innovations not available to the U.S.

Striking from 1,800 km Away

Strikes at a range of about 2,000 kilometers are typically carried out by American and Russian forces using cruise missiles and bombers. Israel, however, has allocated significant portions of its U.S. aid to acquiring fighter jets capable of flying two hours each way—ranging from the advanced F-15I squadron to four F-16I Sufa squadrons.

Lockheed Martin developed conformal fuel tanks specifically for these jets, enhancing their range without significantly affecting aerodynamics or radar signature.

Foreign reports indicate that Israel has developed detachable fuel tanks for F-35 jets, enabling them to reach Iran while maintaining stealth capabilities. Without these, their range is insufficient, and standard under-wing tanks compromise much of their stealth.

Long-Range Attack Missiles

In the late 2000s, Israel’s defense industries unveiled two long-range attack missiles launched from fighter jets. While details like their precise range remain unclear, it’s known that they have a range of hundreds of kilometers, allowing strikes from outside the range of Iranian defenses. These missiles travel at supersonic speeds, reducing enemy alert times and complicating interception efforts, increasing their chances of hitting the target.

Rampage Missile

The Rampage, developed in a collaboration between Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Elbit Systems, is based on Elbit’s EXTRA rocket. Initially designed for ground launch, the Rampage was adapted for air deployment, gaining increased range and speed when launched from jets. It features multiple navigation systems, providing redundancy for accurate targeting.

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With a length of 4.7 meters, a diameter of 30.6 cm, and a weight of 570 kg, it carries a 150 kg warhead, making it effective against missile batteries, command centers, and other critical targets. It can be launched from Israel’s F-15, F-16, and F-35 aircraft. Its reliance on existing rocket technology makes it relatively affordable, estimated at a few hundred thousand dollars per unit.

Rocks Missile

The Rocks missile, unveiled by Rafael in 2019, combines supersonic cruise capabilities with satellite and inertial navigation, as well as optical targeting. It is based on Rafael’s ‘Anchor’ missile, which mimics the Iranian Shahab missile in speed and maneuverability for testing purposes.

The Rocks can be launched from smaller F-16 jets and potentially the F-35. Foreign assessments suggest it has a range of 300 km and can carry a 500 kg warhead, making it capable of targeting fortified or underground structures.

Additional Developments

Foreign sources indicate that Israel has a surface-to-surface missile system, equipped with both conventional and nuclear warheads, known as the “Jericho” missiles. Despite the hundreds of ballistic missiles Iran has launched towards Israel, the likelihood of Israel using these missiles in a strike appears low. These missiles were initially developed by the French Dassault company, later upgraded by IAI.

Israel maintains a policy of ambiguity regarding its capabilities in this area, often announcing “rocket propulsion tests” during launches from its Palmachim base. However, the 1988 unveiling of the ‘Shavit’ satellite launcher confirmed Israel’s long-range ballistic capabilities, as any satellite launcher can be adapted for military use. Thus, these missiles are expected to remain off the table for now.

Additionally, Elbit has developed bunker-busting bombs, named 500MPR, capable of penetrating up to 4 meters of concrete. These bombs, tested on F-15I jets, have a shorter range, reaching a few dozen kilometers based on the method of deployment.

PopEye Turbo

Another Israeli weapon, known only from foreign reports, is the “PopEye Turbo” cruise missile, developed by Rafael with a range of 1,500 km. It is designed for launch from Israeli Navy submarines and is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads. This range allows Israeli submarines to strike Iran from the Red Sea or the Arabian Sea without entering the Persian Gulf.

Exporting these advanced munitions to trusted foreign customers allows Israeli companies to reinvest in missile and bomb development, reducing the costs for Israel’s Defense Ministry. It is likely that undisclosed munitions are stored in Israeli Air Force warehouses, waiting for the right moment.

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

The assassination that shook Iran’s Revolutionary Guards to their core

INSS expert Benny Sabti reveals the far-reaching impact of Abbas Nilforoushan’s elimination, describing it as a “first-ever” blow to the entire Revolutionary Guards structure.

By PELED ARBELIOCTOBER 16, 2024 04:12Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2024 04:15

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-824821&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Benny Sabti, an Iran researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), spoke to Maariv on Tuesday about the significance of the assassination of Abbas Nilforoushan, deputy commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and commander of the Quds Force in Lebanon, who was eliminated along with Hassan Nasrallah in Dahieh, Beirut. 

Sabti began by saying, “This man was the head of operations in the Revolutionary Guards, and many missions, supplies, and budgets passed through his hands. The man was primarily responsible for everything that concerns us, approving budgets and transferring weapons to Syria and Lebanon, and indeed for maintaining all the activities of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations that operate mainly through connections with Syria.”

Sabti noted that Nilforoushan “has been known to the system for many years. It’s not that he suddenly appeared like this, but the media usually hears when something happens.” 

“He was one of the extremists. He was 14 when the revolution in Iran took place, and at that age, he enlisted in the Iran-Iraq war. He came from an extreme place and a very extreme city. The background in Iran is very important; when you grow up in an extreme environment, that’s how you continue your path,” he added.

Regarding Nilforoushan’s activities, Sabti said, “In recent years, in his role as head of operations, he contributed to Hezbollah’s anti-Israeli activities because he dealt with the approvals. He essentially had a hand in everything that happened in the Revolutionary Guards.”

It will take time to replace Nilforoushan

“The Iranians are very resourceful,” Sabti explained, “A person who is both resourceful and very veteran is very important in Iran, like Soleimani – a person who knows how to conduct an operation with three phone calls that even thirty others wouldn’t succeed in doing.” 

“The significance of the assassination is a very hard blow for both the Revolutionary Guards and the entire Iranian axis, with its proxies. The seniority, experience, opening doors, resourcefulness, and quick approvals from high ranks. All of this will be missed by them. It’s always said in the media, ‘eliminate one and another will come’ – it’s not like that at all. It will take a lot of time until they find someone to fill his shoes.” Sabti emphasized. 

“I think for the first time, we’ve hit all of the Revolutionary Guards. It’s something no one has said,” he concluded.

END

.Security forces thwart two terror attacks in West Bank

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 15, 2024 22:50

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-824793&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Security forces thwarted two terror attacks in the West Bank, the IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) said on Tuesday. 

IDF observers identified a suspect near the border fence who was subsequently arrested by IDF troops who arrived on scene and found an M-16 in his possession. 

In parallel, troops operating in the Jenin area arrested a wanted person who was planning to carry out an immediate terror attack. Following an exchange of fire, the wanted person was eliminated, the statement noted. 

END

Biden updates US congressional leaders on deployment of anti-missile system to Israel

By Jacob Magid FollowToday, 6:16 am

In this image courtesy of DVIDS, a US Air Force Airmen offloads a THAAD launcher from a C-17 GlobeMaster III at Nevatim Air Base, Israel for an exercise, March 1, 2019. (Robert DURR / DVIDS / AFP)

US President Joe Biden updates congressional leaders on the US military response to Iran’s ballistic missile attack against Israel at the beginning of the month.

“Consistent with our longstanding commitment to Israel’s security and our public indication of our continuing efforts to protect Israel from Iranian and Iranian-aligned threats, I am reporting to you the posture of United States military forces to aid in Israel’s defense against these attacks and any further such attacks,” Biden writes in a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The president explains that the US has adjusted its military posture in recent months by dispatching the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group, along with its destroyer escorts and carrier air wing that is equipped with F-35C Lightning II Fifth Generation Fighters, to replace the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Additionally, the US has deployed additional destroyers, including some capable of defending against ballistic missile attacks; the guided-missile submarine USS Georgia; the USS Wasp Amphibious Ready Group; multiple fighter and attack squadrons of fourth and fifth generation fighters, including F-22, F-15E and F-16; as well as A-10 Attack aircraft and other forces.

“United States forces will remain postured in the region to serve important national interests, including the protection of United States persons and property from attacks by Iran and Iranian-aligned militias, and to continue to support the defense of Israel, to which our commitment remains ironclad,” Biden says.

“In this context, I directed the deployment to Israel of a ballistic missile defense system and United States service members capable of operating it to defend against any further ballistic missile attacks while this defensive posture is deemed warranted,” the president adds, referring to the THAAD missile defense system.

The update is largely a formality, and the information has already been publicized, but the letter is sent two days after the Biden administration informed Israel that its continued receipt of security assistance is at risk if major steps aren’t taken to relieve the once-again-worsening humanitarian crisis in Gaza.

END

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

Israel strikes Hezbollah weapons cache in Dahieh, Beirut after week of quiet

Witnesses told Reuters that after Israel struck the Lebanese capital, a blast was heard, and a plume of smoke could be seen.

By SAM HALPERNOCTOBER 16, 2024 07:21Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2024 08:13

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-824840&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

After about a week of quiet, Israel Air Force jets struck the Dahieh neighborhood of southern Beirut on Wednesday morning.

Witnesses told Reuters that after Israel struck the Lebanese capital, a blast was heard, and a plume of smoke could be seen.

The IDF later stated that the IAF had targeted “strategic weapons belonging to the Hezbollah terrorist organization” in a strike conducted according to precise intelligence from the Military Intelligence Directorate.

The weapons were being stored in a subterranean storage facility, the military noted.

Warning issued before the strike

The military stated that a number of measures were taken prior to the strike in order to minimize potential harm to civilians.

Approximately an hour before the strike, IDF Arab media spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted a warning on X/Twitter, urging Lebanese residents near a building identified on a map in the post to evacuate. Adraee noted in his post that the building was located in Haret Hreik, a municipality in Dahieh.

#عاجل ‼️ انذار عاجل جديد إلى سكان الضاحية الجنوبية وتحديدًا المتواجدين في المبنى المحدد في الخارطة والواقع في حارة حريك

🔴أنتم متواجدون بالقرب من منشآت ومصالح تابعة لحزب الله حيث سيعمل ضدها جيش الدفاع على مدى الزمني القريب
🔴من أجل سلامتكم وسلامة أبناء عائلتكم عليكم اخلاء هذا… pic.twitter.com/cigjAse6iL

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) October 16, 2024

“You are located near facilities and interests belonging to Hezbollah, and the IDF will work against them in the near future,” the IDF spokesperson wrote. “For your safety and the safety of your family members, you must evacuate this building.

The map shared in the post noted, in Arabic, that the people in the vicinity of the building highlighted on the map were required to move 500 meters from the site.

The map also highlighted the Marty Mahmoud Faid School, located next to the building.

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This is a developing story.

Israeli Navy takes part in striking Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, says IDF

By Lazar Berman FollowToday, 11:45 am

Israeli naval officers taking part in strikes on southern Lebanon in this handout photo cleared for publication on October 16, 2024. (IDF)

The Israeli Navy has struck dozens of Hezbollah targets in support of the 146th Division in the western sector of southern Lebanon, says the IDF.

The targets include launchers, military positions and weapons caches.

Footage from Israeli Navy missile boat supporting the 146th Division in the southern Lebanon pic.twitter.com/Ii0HvP0fqv

— Lazar Berman (@Lazar_Berman) October 16, 2024

“The joint combat capabilities of the IDF can be seen in the offensive operation Northern Arrow,” says Rear Adm. Eli Soholitzky. “Missile boats, patrol vessels, intelligence bases, command and control, fire and other vessels are playing an integral role in offensive and defensive missions in the north, and in supporting the 146th Division.”

Footage from Israeli Navy command center pic.twitter.com/3YDX9cPBpy

— Lazar Berman (@Lazar_Berman) October 16, 2024

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

IDF says it arrested 3 Hezbollah commandos, is interrogating them for intel

IDF says troops nabbed 3 Hezbollah commandos hiding under building in south Lebanon

Military releases interrogation footage suggesting dissension among terror group’s ranks; Lebanon PM says he received reassurances from US that Israel will reduce strikes in Beirut

By ToI Staff and Agencies16 October 2024, 1:19 am

Hezbollah operatives that the IDF said it arrested in south Lebanon on October 15, 2024. (IDF)

The IDF said on Tuesday that it had nabbed three members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces after discovering them in a shaft underneath a building in southern Lebanon, amid the ground offensive against the Lebanese terror group.

In a statement, the Israel Defense Forces said that troops from the Golani Brigade’s 13th Battalion discovered the Radwan operatives “entrenched” in the shaft “alongside many weapons and equipment needed for a long stay.”

The IDF did not say when the Hezbollah operatives were captured, and there was no immediate announcement from the Lebanese terror group on the matter.

The military also published a video clip of an alleged Radwan operative being interrogated about the terror group’s plans in southern Lebanon and the current state of its operations. It was unclear whether the suspect in the video was one of the three that the IDF said it arrested.

In the video, he painted a picture of chaos within Hezbollah at large and the Radwan forces in particular.

Several days before being discovered, he said, an airstrike in the vicinity had cut his contact with a nearby cell of four operatives. Then, the three men he had been stationed with fled, leaving him alone.

“The village was emptied,” he said. He added that the regional commander and his deputy both abandoned their posts before the fighters did, speculating that they did so because “they had conflicts among themselves.”

A member of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan forces is seen in an interrogation video published October 15, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Pressed on the matter by the interrogator, the Radwan fighter posited that those who fled had “little faith,” having chosen to join Hezbollah for the money rather than ideology.

“Of course, they were scared of Israel,” he acknowledged.

The interrogator then turned his attention to a different topic.

“What was the Radwan Force’s goal over the last period?” he asked.

Pausing momentarily before answering, the operative responded that the first objective was to respond to any strikes that came their way. The second long-term goal was “to perhaps push forward to the Galilee.”

“To enter Israel?” the interrogator asked, receiving an answer in the affirmative.

“That was the plan if there was fighting.”

The remark on a plan to invade the Galilee was consistent with briefings from the army in recent weeks in which they revealed that days after Hamas’s October 7 mass onslaught in southern Israel, thousands of terrorists had been positioned near the Lebanon border in a plan to storm the Galilee and unleash similar carnage there.

Pivoting suddenly, the interrogator once more demanded to know why those stationed in the south — supposedly in preparation for an anticipated invasion of Israel — had all seemingly fled.

“After the assassination of Hassan [Nasrallah], I didn’t see any of them,” the operative responded, referring to the massive strikes in Beirut on September 27 in which the Hezbollah leader was killed.

The capture of Hezbollah forces have not been common. On Sunday, the military announced for the first time since the ground offensive began it had captured a Hezbollah fighter in an underground bunker.

Hezbollah has been badly hit over the last month, starting with sabotage attacks that saw pagers and walkie-talkies belonging to terror operatives explode in two waves on September 17 and 18, killing at least 39 people and injuring thousands more. The attack has been widely blamed on Israel, despite it staying silent on the matter.

Days later, Israel launched a major offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah on September 23 with the aim of allowing residents of northern Israel to return to homes they had been forced to evacuate during a year of cross-border rocket fire from Lebanon.

The attacks on northern Israel over the last year have resulted in the deaths of 28 civilians. In addition, 38 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon late last month.

Across the border, the Lebanese government has said that strikes have killed at least 2,309 people in Lebanon over the last year, mainly in the last few weeks. The number includes at least 960 Hezbollah terrorists the IDF said it had killed in the last year but likely includes many more as the numbers of slain Hezbollah members have not been consistently updated since Israel ramped up operations against it.

Speaking Tuesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said Hezbollah was hiding the number of fighters killed by Israel.

“This indicates that it is in distress and that we need to intensify our efforts against the terror group,” he was quoted saying in a statement issued by the IDF.

A graphic released by the military showed how it has eliminated almost all of Hezbollah’s top brass.

מצורף עץ חיסולי הפורום הבכיר של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה, שהוצג במהלך ראיון של דובר צה״ל, תא״ל דניאל הגרי, לערוץ אלחורה pic.twitter.com/vQdDUx02OJ

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) October 15, 2024

The IDF also confirmed on Tuesday that it had killed a top commander in Hezbollah’s aerial unit who was responsible for launching drones at Israel for both intelligence-gathering and attack purposes.

The strike several days ago in Nabatieh took out Khader Al-Abed Bahja, head of the northern Litani region of the aerial unit, the army said.

The news came two days after a drone struck an IDF training base, killing four soldiers and injuring dozens more. The IDF did not say, however, whether Bahja’s unit was tied to that attack.

US pushing for Israel to limit Beirut strikes

Attempting to counter the image of an organization that has been splintered b Nasrallah’s assassination, Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem warned in a speech Tuesday that the only solution to the current war would be a ceasefire, and claimed that his terror group would not be defeated.

“Since the Israeli enemy targeted all of Lebanon, we have the right from a defensive position to target any place” in Israel, “whether the center, the north or the south,” Qassem said.

“I am telling the Israeli home front: The solution is a ceasefire… the resistance (Hezbollah) will not be defeated because this is its land,” he added, claiming that the Iran-backed terror group had adopted a new calculation so that Israel feels “pain.”

Lebanese caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati also raised the matter of a ceasefire on Tuesday.

In a statement distributed by his office, Mikati said that he had received guarantees from the US that Israeli strikes in Beirut would be reduced, appearing to confirm recent Hebrew media reports that pressure from President Joe Biden had led to an agreement by Israel to cut back on strikes in the Lebanese capital.

While Israeli officials have vehemently denied agreeing to such a demand, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said on Tuesday that the US did indeed raise concerns over the bombing campaign in Beirut, and warned that Washington would continue to watch very carefully.

Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati gives an interview with AFP at the government palace in Beirut on October 15, 2024. (Anwar Amro/AFP)

“We’ve told Israel very directly that we oppose their near-daily strikes here in densely populated areas in Beirut,” White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said in a separate briefing.

“We understand that they’re conducting targeted operations designed to go after Hezbollah infrastructure, and we recognize that they have a right to do that, but they also have a commensurate responsibility to do it in a way that doesn’t threaten the lives of civilians, UN peacekeepers or members of the Lebanese armed forces who have suffered some casualties here,” Kirby said. “It’s unacceptable, and we’ve pressed the Israelis for more details about that.”

Israel has not struck the southern suburbs of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh, since late last week after hitting the area on a near-nightly basis for several weeks in attacks targeting Hezbollah operatives which the Lebanese health ministry said also killed scores of people not connected to the terror group.

Mikati did not provide further details on the assurances he had received from the US on the matter, but said that Washington was “serious about pressuring Israel to reach a ceasefire.”

He told AFP on Tuesday that international efforts were still underway to reach a ceasefire that would put an end to the year-long hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah, which began when the terror group started launching attacks following the October 7, 2023, terror onslaught carried out by Hamas in southern Israel.

He reiterated his previously pledged commitment to implement UN Resolution 1701, which calls for the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to be the only armed forces deployed south of the Litani river.

“Currently we have 4,500 soldiers in south Lebanon, and we wish to add to them between 7,000 and 11,000,” Mikati said, adding that his cash-strapped government would start by recruiting an additional 1,500 troops, and that as soon as any ceasefire is agreed they would move in soldiers from elsewhere in Lebanon.

“The Lebanese state is ready to impose its sovereignty over all of Lebanese territory,” he said.

‘We entered a war which is not for us’

While Israeli strikes have been concentrated mostly on south and east Lebanon, in addition to the capital, a deadly strike in northern Lebanon on Monday raised fears of a widening conflict.

Search continues among the rubble of a destroyed building at the site of Monday’s Israeli airstrike in Aito village, north Lebanon, Tuesday, October 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Israel said the strike, which was reported to have killed 22 people, struck a Hezbollah target. The United Nations nevertheless called for an independent investigation.

The strike was carried out in Aito, a village in the country’s Christian heartland, far from Hezbollah’s main area of influence.

As rescue workers rummaged through the debris on Tuesday, they found the body of a child, and later a small leg and other remains that they put together in a white bag. The Lebanese military watched as a bulldozer cleared heaps of twisted steel, destroyed olive trees, and crushed rocks.

Speaking to AFP in the aftermath of the strike, a resident of the village blamed Hezbollah for dragging Lebanon into a war it didn’t want.

“We entered a war which is not for us, we are all bearing its consequences,” she said.

Demining activity in Golan may indicate widening front

In what may be an indication that Israel is seeking to expand its ground operations against Hezbollah whilst bolstering defenses, security sources and analysts said its troops have cleared landmines and established new barriers on the frontier between the Golan Heights and a demilitarized strip bordering Syria.

The move suggests Israel may seek to strike Hezbollah for the first time from further east along Lebanon’s border, at the same time creating a secure area from which it can freely reconnoiter the terror group and prevent infiltration, the sources said.

While demining activity has been reported, sources who spoke to Reuters — including a Syrian soldier stationed in south Syria, a Lebanese security official and a UN peacekeeping official — revealed additional unreported details that showed Israel was moving the fence separating the DMZ toward the Syrian side and digging more fortifications in the area.

END

HEZBOLLAN ISRAEL LATE THIS MORNING

HEZBOLLAH

Hezbollah signals Lebanon truce depends on Gaza, says group aim to cause Israel pain

Terror group’s deputy head Naim Qassem says ceasefire is the only solution to the conflict, argues Hezbollah has right to strike all over Israel since IDF hitting all over Lebanon

By Agencies and ToI StaffToday, 7:42 pm

An image grab taken from Hezbollah’s Al-Manar TV shows the group’s deputy chief Naim Qassem delivering a speech from an undisclosed location on October 15, 2024. (AFP photo/HO/Al-Manar)

BEIRUT, Lebanon — Hezbollah’s deputy chief Naim Qassem said on Tuesday his group has adopted “a new calculation” to inflict pain on Israel, even as he called for a ceasefire and seemed to relink cessation of hostilities in Lebanon with a truce in Gaza, after an official in the terror group recently said it could give up its longstanding linkage between the two fronts.

“The solution is a ceasefire, we are not speaking from a position of weakness,” Qassem said.

“If the Israelis do not want that, we will continue,” he added in a broadcast speech that drew a reaction from Israel’s president threatening to eventually kill Qassem.

The top Hezbollah figure did, however, indicate that the group’s willingness to agree to a ceasefire was conditional on an end to fighting in Gaza, where Israel has been at war with Hamas for more than a year.

“We were asked to stop the fighting and get more than 10 kilometers away from the border so as not to provoke Israel, but we stuck to our demand for a ceasefire in Gaza and didn’t agree to the request to separate Lebanon from Gaza,” he asserted.

He added that Hezbollah supports “the Palestinians and aids them in distancing the danger from them and preventing Israel’s expansion.”

Israel does not aim to annex the Gaza Strip, which it evacuated in 2005 in the Disengagement plan, though far-right officials have been demanding continued Israeli presence there. In its war with Hamas, Israel instead aims to dismantle the terrorist organization’s military governance capabilities after its unprecedented October 7, 2023, attack in which terrorists murdered some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and took 251 hostages, the recovery of whom is another goal of the war.

This picture taken from Lebanon’s southern city of Tyre shows a cloud of smoke erupting following an Israeli air strike on the village of Deir Qanoun on October 14, 2024. (Kawnat Haju/AFP)

Qassem said Tuesday that some 60,000 residents of northern Israel who evacuated last year, after Hezbollah began its near-daily rocket and drone attacks in support of Hamas, would be able to return home after a ceasefire deal is reached through an indirect agreement.

But he threatened that more Israelis would be displaced if the war continued, saying that “the number of uninhabited settlements will increase, and hundreds of thousands, even more than two million, will be in danger at any time, at any hour, on any day.”

He claimed that since Israel has attacked all over Lebanon, the group has the right to attack anywhere in Israel.

“We will focus on targeting the Israeli military and its centers and barracks,” he said, adding that “Hezbollah is strong despite the tough hits we’ve taken, and we’ve recovered our capabilities on the battlefield.”

President Isaac Herzog reacted to Qassem’s speech while visiting the Haifa area and meeting hospitalized soldiers injured in Hezbollah’s drone strike.

“I heard Naim Qassem’s speech — he is wrong just like his predecessors and those who came before them,” he said. “Not only is he wrong — I presume his day will come as well.”

“He’s not only wrong in his disrespect to the State of Israel and its citizens,” Herzog added. “He is trying to make people forget the bitter truth — he and his friends have brought disaster upon Lebanon.”

Israel launched a major offensive against the Iran-backed Hezbollah on September 23 with the aim of allowing residents of northern Israel to return to homes they had been forced to evacuate during a year of cross-border rocket fire from Lebanon.

Beginning with heavy strikes that killed the vast majority of Hezbollah’s leadership, including leader Hassan Nasrallah, Israel proceeded to launch a limited ground offensive in southern Lebanon to dismantle the terrorist organization’s infrastructure along the border, which violates a 2006 UN Security Council stipulating that Hezbollah withdraw to some 30 kilometers north of the border.

A picture shows the damage a day after an Israeli airstrike on Hezbollah targets in the southern Lebanese city of Nabatiyeh on October 13, 2024. (Abbas Fakih/AFP)

Israeli strikes have killed at least 2,309 people in Lebanon over the last year, mainly in the last few weeks, according to the Lebanese government. The number includes at least 960 Hezbollah terrorists the IDF said it had killed in the last year but likely includes many more as the numbers of slain Hezbollah members have not been consistently updated since the beginning of the ground operation.

Meanwhile, more than 1.2 million Lebanese have been displaced. Addressing them, Qassem said they “must be patient to achieve victory, and I promise you will return to your homes that will be rebuilt.”

More than 50 IDF soldiers have been killed in the past year in Hezbollah’s attacks and in the ground operation.

The attacks on northern Israel over the last year have resulted in the deaths of 28 civilians. In addition, 38 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon in late September.

END

IRAN/ISRAEL

still think he is a Mossad agent. He was in the room with Nasrallah and Safieddine and then left moments before the blast and he got out of the rubble

(JerusalemPost)

Iranian TV Shows Quds Force Chief After Deemed ‘Missing’ For Two Weeks

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 – 06:50 PM

The head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s (IRGC) Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, has been spotted at a military funeral in Tehran after not being seen for two weeks. US media reports earlier this month described that the general “has not been seen in public since Israel killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in a massive air strike on Beirut on Sept. 27.”

On Tuesday he was shown on state TV attending the the funeral ceremony for General Abbas Nilforoushan, who had been killed in the same Israeli airstrike on Beirut which took out Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.  Nilforoushan’s body was only days ago recovered from deep under the rubble in the south Beirut district of Dahieh.

Qaani’s public appearance is significant given that rumors and rampant speculation had led to regional and international media issuing reports saying he either died in an Israeli strike or was under arrest by the government of Iran.

For example, nearly a week ago Middle East Eye issued a report saying that Qaani was being detained by Iran in order to question him about the circumstances of the series of major security breaches exploited by Israel.

MEE had also said at the time that “Speculation has mounted online and in the media that Qaani was wounded or killed in Israel’s continuous bombardment of Beirut’s southern suburbs.”

AFP now reports of his new appearance in downtown Tehran:

Qaani – who heads the Quds Force, the IRGC’s foreign operations arm – had disappeared from public view and was rumored in some media to have been targeted in an Israeli strike on Lebanon.

He appeared Tuesday at the funeral, clad in the IRGC’s green military uniform.

Nilforoushan’s casket was paraded through the packed streets of Tehran after a funeral ceremony at Imam Hossein Square in the city center.

After weeks of speculation and false reports, IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Qaani was seen in an IRIB live broadcasting along with other officials receiving the body of Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan at Mehrabad Airport. pic.twitter.com/AmDfWqK8pY

— PressTV Extra (@PresstvExtra) October 15, 2024

Interestingly, some other Western reports had speculated that Qaani had suffered a heart attack or that his health was deteriorating. But he looks healthy in the newly released footage.

As Jerusalem Post highlights, “Last week, the IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news channel claimed that the IRGC General Ebrahim Jabbari had told state media that Qaani was in full health and would be receiving the Medal of Conquest from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the near future.”

Iran has remained defiant in the face of an expected Israeli retaliation for the Oct.1st Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel. Yoav Gallant has said Israel’s response will be “deadly, precise, and surprising.”

After weeks of speculation and false reports, IRGC Quds Force Commander Brigadier General Esmail Qaani was seen in an IRIB live broadcasting along with other officials receiving the body of Brigadier General Abbas Nilforoushan at Mehrabad Airport. pic.twitter.com/AmDfWqK8pY

— PressTV Extra (@PresstvExtra) October 15, 2024

Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC) Quds Force Brigadier General Esmail Qaani attended the funeral procession of Martyr Major General Abbas Nilforoushan in Tehran on Tuesday. pic.twitter.com/r2PoRTLYmK

— IRNA News Agency (@IrnaEnglish) October 15, 2024

Tehran has in response said that it desires de-escalation and peace, but stands ready to respond against any aggression. “The Islamic Republic of Iran does not want to escalate tensions or war, but we are ready for any situation. We are prepared for war, but also for peace. This is Iran’s firm position,” foreign minister Abbas Aragchi said Sunday.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Blinken and Austen are total doorknobs

(JerusalemPost)

Pentagon’s private letter to Gallant, Dermer about possible arms embargo leaked to Israeli media

Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh doubled down that the letter was meant to be private correspondence and not intended for public consumption. 

By HANNAH SARISOHNOCTOBER 15, 2024 22:30

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The Pentagon confirmed that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Secretary Antony Blinken co-signed a letter to their Israeli counterparts expressing concern about the humanitarian conditions in Gaza though its spokesperson refused to provide any further information regarding the contents of the letter. 

Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh doubled down that the letter was meant to be private correspondence and not intended for public consumption. 

“Someone obviously felt the need to get out this private correspondence, but I’m just not going to be able to get into more details on that,” Singh said. “We didn’t know it was going to get out. It was meant to be a private conversation.”

Singh reiterated that the administration has paused only one shipment of 2,000-lb bombs.

She added that just because there are other engagements happening in the region doesn’t mean that the administration has taken its eye off what’s happening in Gaza. 

“We know that humanitarian aid still is stalling to get into Gaza and to reach civilians that need it desperately,” Singh said. 

Singh confirmed that Austin and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant spoke twice over the weekend, their first calls since their canceled in-person meeting last week. 

In calls, Austin continued to emphasize land routes are the best means to increase aid into Gaza and “raised concern for the dire humanitarian situation and stressed that steps must be taken soon to address it.”

LEBANON

In conversations with Gallant, Austin also “reinforced the importance of Israel taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UN peacekeeping forces and Lebanese armed forces” and the need to “pivot away from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway to provide security for civilians on both sides of the border.”

The Pentagon has assessed Israel is still conducting operations to go after Hezbollah infrastructure along the northern border, Singh said. 

---

---

“We expressed deep concern over what happened with those UN peacekeepers that were within Lebanon,” she said. “But that is still our assessment, that they are conducting operations against Hezbollah.”

Austin also reiterated the need to do more when it comes to protecting innocent civilians in Lebanon, she said. 

THAAD

Reporters repeatedly pressed Singh over the Pentagon’s decision to send US forces to Israel and potentially in harm’s way should Iran launch another round of major missile strikes. 

“Of course we’re concerned,” Singh said. “We don’t know what a response could look like, but we’re not going to also wait and find out.”

The Pentagon has taken force protection measures at its bases and has moved missile destroyers closer in the region to help Israel, she said, while acknowledging putting people on land is different. 

A THAAD adds capability to Israel’s air defenses and can help shoot ballistic missiles should Iran choose to respond again with those, she said. 

THAAD is also meant to be a temporary provision of air defense capabilities to better protect Israel and it’s in keeping with the United States’ intent to reduce tensions, according to Singh.  

The only message that deploying the THAAD and United States personnel to Israel sends is that the US stands with Israel and their self-defense, Singh maintained. 

“And that message has been clear from the beginning,” she said.

end 

/ISRAEL/GAZA

USA threatens Israel with arms shipment suspensions over lack of food to Gazens.

(zerohedge)

US Threatens Israel With Arms Shipment Suspensions Over Spiraling Gaza Situation

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 – 09:20 PM

The Biden administration is said to be threatening to withdraw key aspects of US military aid to Israel if it doesn’t reign in the devastating humanitarian situation in Gaza.

Like with prior such ‘warnings’ (this isn’t the first), the message seems more timed for the November election. Kamala Harris has wedded herself to Biden’s policies on Israel and Gaza, alienating Arab-Americans in some key swing states like Michigan, where the ‘uncommitted’ movement is growing.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin this week issued a letter to the Israeli government telling it to take “urgent and sustained action” to reverse course on the spiraling humanitarian situation in Gaza or risking seeing select US military assistance cut off. The US has reportedly given Israel 30 days to demonstrate progress.

“The Departments of State and Defense must continually assess your government’s adherence to your March 2024 assurances that Israel would ‘facilitate and not arbitrarily deny, restrict, or otherwise impede, directly or indirectly, the transport or delivery of United States humanitarian assistance’ to and within Gaza,” the letter states.

It continues: “The Department of State will need to conduct a similar assessment under section 620I of the Foreign Assistance Act in order to provide additional Foreign Military Financing assistance to Israel. We are now writing to underscore the U.S. government’s deep concern over the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza, and seek urgent and sustained actions by your government this month to reverse this trajectory.”

The allegations come after several NGOs and rights groups have allege that Israel has blocked vital aid from getting into the Gaza Strip, including aid sent from the US.

“Blinken and Austin raise alarm in the letter that the amount of aid entering Gaza has dropped by 50 percent compared to assurances provided in March and April,” The Hill notes.

This also comes as Israel has begun to lose the NY Times. Its opinion editor wrote on Tuesday:

A recent opinion essay gathered first-hand testimonies from 65 U.S.-based health professionals who worked in Gaza over the past year, who shared more than 160 photographs and videos with Times Opinion to corroborate their detailed accounts of treating preteen children who were shot in the head or chest. Following publication, some readers questioned the accuracy of the accounts and the authenticity of three CT images shown. Those criticisms are unfounded.

…While our editors have photographs to corroborate the CT scan images, because of their graphic nature, we decided these photos — of children with gunshot wounds to the head or neck — were too horrific for publication. 

Despite all of this, throughout the totality of the conflict and amid an avalanche of allegations of war crimes against Israel’s military (often involving use of American-supplied weapons), the Biden administration has merely paused one single shipment of bombs – it appears based on public reporting.

A new study from Brown documents the stunning amounts given to Israel over the last year by Biden/Harris to pay for Israel's wars.

It's $18b to Israel, plus another $5b from US military actions for Israel.

Yet the GOP grievance is that Dems haven't done enough for Israel.🇮🇱 pic.twitter.com/OTIb3AwIRl

— Glenn Greenwald (@ggreenwald) October 14, 2024

The reality is that Washington is unlikely to ever significantly block military aid to Israel, no matter what its actions are. This will remain true whether a Republication or Democratic administration is in the White House.

end

ISRAEL VS ENEMIES

Israel is now low on interceptor missiles. Just understand what Hamas and Hezbollah spent instead of putting their money to good use: tunnels, weapons etc

(zerohedge)

Israel’s Supply Of Interceptor Missiles Under Strain Amid Daily Assaults

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 – 06:00 PM

Israel has been at war on several fronts for more than a year at this point, and is rapidly expending ammo and missiles, especially as it tries to shoot down what are now dozens of projectiles daily sent from Hezbollah positions in Lebanon.

Hezbollah is estimated to have an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of rockets and drones of various sizes. Israel’s formidable anti-air defense systems have been regularly engaging inbound threats, sometimes expending hundreds of interceptors a day – and this was particularly true during the Oct.1st Iranian ballistic missile attack.

Israel has long heavily relied on the United States to supply it with heavy artillery, bombs, and missiles – but now appears to be running low on interceptors amid the daily firefights. 

A new Financial Times report warns that Israel’s missile defense shield is being stretched thin, and that the country is more heavily relying on Washington to fill the gaps.

“Israel faces a looming shortage of interceptor missiles as it shores up air defenses to protect the country from attacks by Iran and its proxies, according to industry executives, former military officials and analysts,” FT writes.

“The US is racing to help close gaps in Israel’s protective shield, announcing on Sunday the deployment of a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (Thaad) antimissile battery, ahead of an expected retaliatory strike from Israel on Iran that risks further regional escalation.”

One analyst and former US senior defense official, Dana Stroul, stated that “Israel’s munitions issue is serious. Stroul, a pro-Israel and anti-Iran hawk, has described that “If Iran responds to an Israel attack [with a massive air strike campaign], and Hizbollah joins in too, Israel air defenses will be stretched.”

She underscored the limitations in such a scenario for the Pentagon’s stockpiles: “The US can’t continue supplying Ukraine and Israel at the same pace. We are reaching a tipping point.”

We’ve highlighted before that Israel likely cannot sustain wars on multiple fronts without steady support and weapons shipments from the US. As conflict – and Washington involvement – from Eastern Europe to the Middle East escalates, it remains that the only ‘winners’ are the major US defense firms:

Boaz Levy, CEO of Israel Aerospace Industries which produces missile interceptors, adds: “Some of our lines are working 24 hours, seven days a week. Our goal is to meet all our obligations.”

Palestinian media has meanwhile taken note…

“Supply constraints” and the demands of war have left the Israeli military “relying on the US to fill the gaps in protective shields”.

In recent days, the US announced it is deploying the anti-missile system THAAD to Israel as it continues to provide “ironclad” support for its… pic.twitter.com/Ngt2iGXKPG

— Quds News Network (@QudsNen) October 15, 2024

During two separate rounds of Iranian missile attacks on Israel of the past year, the US has deployed warships and fighter jets to assist Israel in shooting down inbound projectiles. But systems like the Iron Dome, Arrow, and David’s Sling remain vital to Israel’s daily defense, especially given Hezbollah’s ramped-up attacks on the north of late. The US has now sent the Army’s THAAD missile defense system.

Will the US ever cut off Israel? It is unlikely, given that both sides of the aisle tend to be led by “Israel firsters” – and sadly the presidential race is no different.

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

Israel’s Iran Attack Plan ‘Ready’ & Will Happen Before US Election: Officials

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 02:05 PM

Following Tuesday widespread reports that Prime Minister Netanyahu will heed the Biden administration’s plea to avoid targeting Iranian oil and nuclear sites, Israeli officials now say Israel’s military response for Iran’s October 1st ballistic missile attack is ready.

“Israel’s plan to respond to Iran’s October 1 attack is ready, a source familiar with the matter told CNN, without providing further information,” writes the US news outlet on Wednesday.

As for the timeline, Israel sources have only revealed that the retaliatory strikes are expected to happen before the US election day.

“American officials expect Israel will retaliate against this month’s Iranian attack before November 5, sources tell CNN — a timeline that would thrust the growing volatility in the Middle East squarely into public view within days of the US presidential election,” CNN has said in a separate report.

“The timeline and parameters of Israel’s retaliation against Iran have been subject to intense debate inside Israel’s government and are not directly related to the timing of the US election,” per the sources.

The Biden administration has also been intensely lobbying the Israelis to only hit military infrastructure in the Islamic Republic, on fears that if energy or nuclear sites are struck, Tehran could choose to strike out at oil facilities in nearby gulf states, which would send the price of crude soaring.

Iranian leaders have considered the Oct.1st attack, which saw some 200 ballistic missiles sent on Israel, a ‘win’. They’ve said Iran seeks peace but will hit back hard in response to any Israeli aggression.

Threats and counterthreats continue to fly:

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned UN chief Antonio Guterres that Tehran is ready for a “decisive and regretful” response if Israel attacks his country in retaliation to the almost 200 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last week that Israel “will soon respond” to the missile attack, vowing it will be “precise and deadly.”

Israel’s Kan public broadcaster has meanwhile confirmed that “the political echelon” has already decided on the targets, with an Israeli source saying, “The targets are clear. Now it’s a matter of time.”

https://embed.polymarket.com/market.html?market=israel-military-response-against-iran-by-next-friday-oct-18&features=volume&theme=light

ISRAEL/FRANCE

Macron just get his history straight

(JerusalemPost)

Macron: Israel was created by UN, Netanyahu should not forget it – report

It was not a UN decision that established the State of Israel but the victory that was achieved in the War of Independence with the blood of our heroic fighters, the PMO said in response.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 16, 2024 09:45Updated: OCTOBER 16, 2024 09:52

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-824847&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should not fail to forget that a UN resolution created Israel, French President Emmanuel Macron said while convening with ministers on Tuesday, according to Le Parisien.

“Netanyahu must not forget that his country was created by a decision of the UN. Therefore, he should not liberate himself from the decisions of the UN,” the French daily newspaper cited Macron as saying behind closed doors. 

Macron‘s remarks referenced the UN Resolution 181 adopted on November 29, 1947. 

“A reminder to the French President: It was not a UN decision that established the State of Israel but the victory that was achieved in the War of Independence with the blood of our heroic fighters, many of whom were Holocaust survivors, including from the Vichy regime in France,” the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) stated in response.

Le Parisien noted that the French president’s comments were made in relation to Israel’s operation in southern Lebanon and the recent incidents concerning the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which saw IDF troops firing at UNIFIL posts along the border. 

“It would also be worthwhile to recall that in recent decades, the UN has approved hundreds of antisemitic decisions against the State of Israel, the purpose of which is to deny the one and only Jewish state’s right to exist and its ability to defend itself,” the PMO added.

Guterres rejects Netanyahu’s request

Earlier this week, Netanyahu asked UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres that UNIFIL soldiers be evacuated from their posts in southern Lebanon.

“The IDF has requested this repeatedly and has met with repeated refusal, which has the effect of providing Hezbollah terrorists with human shields,” Netanyahu said.

Guterres rejected Netanyahu’s call for evacuation, with the UN chief’s spokesperson, Stephane Dujarric, affirming, “Peacekeepers remain in all positions, and the UN flag continues to fly.” Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report. 

end

Ben Shapiro: Doug Emhoff is as Jewish as a ham sandwich

The Jerusalem Post Podcast with Tamar Uriel-Beeri and Zvika Klein.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 15, 2024 23:08Updated: OCTOBER 15, 2024 23:47

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Doug Emhoff, the Jewish husband of US Vice President Kamala Harris, is “as Jewish as a ham sandwich,” conservative commentator Ben Shapiro said in an interview with Zvika Klein on The Jerusalem Post Podcast. 

Shapiro criticized Harris’s position on Israel, stating that while US President Biden “at least has some sort of baseline interest in the security of the State of Israel… Harris does not.”

Rather, he claimed, both Harris and Emhoff don’t care about Israeli security. He further took issue with Emhoff being touted as a representative of the Jewish people, saying it “is the most insulting thing about this entire campaig.”

“I have a personal allergic reaction to Doug Emhoff trotting out his Judaism, which he has not cared about for one smidgen of 1% of one moment of his entire life, on the campaign trail,” Shapiro said. “My culture is not your costume.”

He further took issue with Emhoff appearing on stage at the Democratic National Convention, where he said that Harris made him more Jewish.

“That’s a hell of a statement,” Shapiro noted, before criticizing Emhoff’s conduct. “Activities I do not consider Jewish include nailing your nanny, probably paying for her abortion, possibly beating up your ex-girlfriend according to three contemporaneous witness reports. Like, these are things that I think maybe you not a great representative to the Jewish people.”

Will 40% of American Jews vote for Donald Trump?

Shapiro further claimed that as much as 40% of American Jews will likely vote for Donald Trump rather than Harris in the 2024 US presidential election.

This is a shift from the normal voter turnouts in the US, which normally see around 70% of American Jews voting Democrat and 25-30% voting Republican. 

Part of this, Shapiro explained, is because of Israel.

---

---

“I think that this breaks down very strongly along the lines of how important is Israel to you,” he said. “If you think Israel is really important, you’re voting for Trump.”

However, another factor is that many Jews who otherwise would vote Democrat might not due to disliking Harris.

“I think there are a lot of liberal leaning Jews who are, like, ‘you know what? I’m just not showing up. Like, I can’t vote for Trump. I don’t like that guy. I think he’s toxic for a thousand reasons. But Kamala Harris is, you know, playing patty cake with the Squad and with pro-Hamas forces in Michigan, and Phil Gordon is going to be her foreign policy adviser. And you know what? Maybe I just don’t show up,'” Shapiro said.

“So I think that because of lower turnout on the left wing of the Democratic Party and among Jews, and higher turnout among on the right wing of the Republican Party among Jews, then I think that you’re going to see a not insignificant shift.”

Shapiro also discussed his new upcoming musical, We Will Rise Again, made with his father David Shapiro. A full article about the musical will be in the upcoming Friday edition of The Jerusalem Post.

To contact us, please reach out at podcast@jpost.com. This podcast is available on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

Robert H

Russia’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine, While Biden Administration Tries to Gaslight American Muslim Voters

DC does what it always does, lie and gaslight the public.
There is video circulating on line about how Russians sent in 5 Iskander missiles to take out a heavy equipment repair facility ( tank) in the Ukraine. Each missile hit its target inbound at Mach 6. The West has no defense against such weapons.
Current gaslighting of the public is similiar to what the Germans did about how they were winning on the eastern Front.
The conflict i. Ukraine will end when Russia chooses to end on their terms, and not anyone else. To think otherwise is a mistake. In the meantime Zelensky’s goon squads will continue to forcibly take people off the streets to buy time with their death before they run.
As it is If Zelensky was on fire the Ukrainians would not piss on him to put the fire out. That is the mood there today. Once this fiasco is over and Ukrainians there understand who Zelensky’s enablers were they will hate them with a passion. It is what conflict always achieved as it has throughout history.

Russia’s Gaining Ground in Ukraine, While Biden Administration Tries to Gaslight American Muslim Voters

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

Monkeypox: Evidence Of The “Pandemic Preparedness” Lie

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 – 05:40 PM

Authored by Clayton Baker via The Brownstone Institute,

This article was co-authored by Brian Hooker, PhD and Heather Ray.

“Pandemic Preparedness,” and the gain-of-function research that underlies it, operates under a grand deception, a big lie.

The Biological Weapons Convention, which every major nation has signed, “prohibits the development, production, acquisition, transfer, stockpiling and use of biological and toxin weapons.” As a result, gain-of-function research – the process of taking viruses and other pathogens found in nature and making them more transmissible and dangerous in humans – must be justified by defining it as something other than what it really is – namely, the creation of biological weapons and countermeasures for those weapons.

The grand deception – the big lie – used to justify gain-of-function research goes something like this: “We need to alter pathogens in the lab to anticipate the mutations that just might occur in nature, and to promote the production of vaccines to protect humanity from these theoretical superbugs.”

In truth, there is no legitimate reason to create superbugs in the laboratory. One does not save Tokyo by creating Godzilla. Unfortunately, science can be both complicated and confusing, especially when the “experts” are intentionally untruthful. This grand deception has therefore worked for decades, and a gigantic, profitable, and frankly terrifying pandemic preparedness industry involving governments, non-governmental organizations, Big Pharma, and universities has grown as a result.

In order to expose and discredit a big lie that has persisted for such a long time, sometimes a “smoking gun” is needed – that is, a piece of clear and obvious evidence that the long-held premise is false. In the case of the big lie surrounding gain-of-function research and the pandemic preparedness industry, monkeypox serves the role of smoking gun.

Monkeypox virus is back in the news in 2024, as one of the pandemic industrial complex’s leading candidates for the so-called “Disease X” about which the World Health Organization has been sounding its relentless alarm. (Of course, this is the second time monkeypox has been trotted out in recent years, after the 2022 monkeypox fear porn campaign in the United States that ultimately fizzled out.)

Once one gains a thorough understanding of both the monkeypox virus’s peculiar history in the US, as well as the natural characteristics of the virus, one can easily see through the grand deception – the big lie – that is used to justify gain-of-function research and the entire “pandemic preparedness” industry.

Monkeypox Comes to America

In 2003, through exotic pet importation, 35 people in six US states were confirmed to have been infected with the clade II type of the monkeypox virus. The humans contracted the disease from infected prairie dogs, kept as pets, that had themselves been exposed to either contaminated imported animals or other individuals infected with the virus. All human cases made a full recovery without lasting effects. 

This outbreak was an odd, self-limited, and entirely incidental occurrence of a rare and essentially non-lethal virus finding its way to the US by specific and preventable circumstances. In a world of sensible and ethical public health practices, this event should have prompted a reasonable, proportionate response, such as increased precautions regarding the exotic animal trade.

Instead, this incident opened the floodgates to dangerous research by scientists who sought to identify a strain of monkeypox that could easily be passed to humans by way of aerosol transmission. 

In 2009, Christina Hutson and her team at the CDC collaborated with Jorge Osorio at the University of Wisconsin to investigate the transmissibility of monkeypox. Again, in 2012, Hutson teamed with other universities to test and compare the transmissibility of the monkeypox virus in rodents, ultimately determining in those experiments that “transmission of viruses from each of the MPXV clade was minimal via respiratory transmission.”

Again, in a sensible and ethical world, these findings might have shut the door on ill-advised research on monkeypox. As we shall see, that was not the case.

Monkeypox: A Lumbering Giant of a Virus

The monkeypox virus itself is a strange candidate indeed to try to manipulate in the manner Hutson and Osorio sought. Unlike small, simple, rapidly mutating RNA respiratory viruses like Influenza viruses or coronaviruses, monkeypox is, in the virus world, a slow-moving, lumbering giant.

The most ‘successful’ bioweapon in human history is the SARS CoV-2 coronavirus that causes Covid. It encodes only 29 proteins in its single-stranded, RNA genome, which is correspondingly small – slightly less than 30,000 bases in length. With its genetic simplicity and its single-stranded RNA genome, it mutates very rapidly. The virus itself is small as well – it is only about 100 nanometers in diameter and weighs about 1 femtogram (or 0.000000000000001 gram).

As one might expect, this virus is readily transmitted through the airborne route.

Monkeypox virus, by contrast, is one of the largest and most complex viruses in existence. It can be up to 450 nm long and 260 nm wide, and its double-stranded DNA genome has nearly 200,000 base pairs. With this lengthy, complex genome, encoded in more stable, double-stranded DNA, it mutates slowly. This large virus – a giant, by viral standards – does not transmit by the aerosol route. Rather, it is transmitted by close contact, including sexual intercourse (as became well known during the 2022 monkeypox scare), as well as the hunting, slaughtering, and eating of bushmeat.

Consider also that naturally occurring monkeypox is much less deadly to humans than the pandemic planners and fear pornographers typically advertise. The WHO has since reported on the international monkeypox outbreak that occurred in 2022. As of January 2023, the total number of confirmed cases was 84,716, with 80 total deaths. Thus, the case fatality rate during that outbreak was less than one death in every thousand cases, 100 times less than the frequently-cited case-fatality rate of 10%.

Strictly speaking, the frequently cited 10% case-fatality rate refers only to the more virulent clade I of monkeypox. However, many authorities have picked up the bad habit of bandying about the 10% figure indiscriminately of clade. Furthermore, even with clade I, this rate appears to be a significant exaggeration. 

For example, in its webpage on endemic clade I Monkeypox in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the CDC states that “Since January 1, 2024, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) has reported more than 31,000 suspect mpox cases and nearly 1,000 deaths.” These numbers result in a case fatality rate of around 3%.

There are numerous other threats to human health that are more worthy of time, funding, and effort. For example, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where monkeypox is endemic, about eighty times more people die of malaria than of monkeypox. Malaria is both preventable and curable with proper diagnosis and access to inexpensive medications. This tragic death toll from malaria illustrates how common, deadly, but relatively unprofitable diseases are neglected by supposedly philanthropic entities such as the WHO. 

Instead, they heavily promote the grand deception of pandemic preparedness and gain-of-function research.

Given the monkeypox virus’s sheer size, complexity, low rate of mutation, relatively stable DNA genome, and instability when exposed to oxygen, the likelihood of it ever naturally mutating into an airborne pathogen is remote. There is simply no legitimate reason to monkey with its genome in the lab (pun intended).

Add to the mix its limited transmissibility and low mortality (especially for clade II), and any honest and competent scientist truly seeking to serve humanity would recognize that naturally occurring monkeypox is a relatively low public health priority and a marginal-at-best vaccine candidate – especially for the world population at large. 

But Anthony Fauci and his cronies at NIAID saw things differently.

Fauci and Friends, at It Again

In 2015, AnthonFauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) covertly approved a dangerous gain-of-function experiment that would genetically manipulate the monkeypox virus to create a more virulent and transmissible pathogen that would potentially pose a grave threat to humans. 

Instead of raising the alarm about this proposal to create a deadly hybrid monkeypox virus, the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and NIAID itself deceptively hid the project’s approval from the oversight of the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, by burying funding for the experiment in an alternate grant.  

The project was proposed by Dr. Bernard Moss, a long-time friend and colleague of Fauci at NIAID. Moss, who has accumulated multiple US patents related to monkeypox, intended to insert virulence genes from the more severe form of monkeypox, clade I (Congo Basin clade), in the “backbone” of the more transmissible monkeypox virus, clade II (West Africa clade). This project would create a much more dangerous version of monkeypox with the virulence of clade I and the transmissibility of clade II. This chimeric form of monkeypox would not originate in nature, as different clades of DNA viruses do not naturally transpose genes.

It is unknown whether this ill-advised, highly dangerous, and deceitfully approved project was completed. Fauci and Moss’s sleight-of-hand was discovered in 2022, prompting a seven-month Congressional investigation. The House Committee Report (page 6) states that “HHS, the NIH, and NIAID continue to insist the GOFROC (gain-of-function research of concern) experiment transferring material from clade I to clade II was never conducted, despite being approved for a period of over 8 years. However, HHS has repeatedly refused to produce any documents that corroborate this claim.”

Is a weaponized form of monkeypox in existence? If so, Fauci, Moss, and friends aren’t telling.

What is known is that there was no legitimate reason to conduct such experiments, and that those involved knew this, as they hid the project from their overseers. The only logical assumption about the intent of the research is that it was to create a weaponized version of monkeypox. 

The House Committee’s conclusions on Fauci’s NIAID as a whole are damning:

The primary conclusion drawn at this point in the investigation is that NIAID cannot be trusted to oversee its own research of pathogens responsibly. It cannot be trusted to determine whether an experiment on a potential pandemic pathogen or enhanced potential pandemic pathogen poses unacceptable biosafety risk or a serious public health threat. Lastly, NIAID cannot be trusted to honestly communicate with Congress and the public about controversial GOFROC experiments. (page 8)

NIAID couldn’t be trusted about Covid. 

They cannot be trusted about monkeypox, either. 

According to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce, they cannot be trusted, period.

To summarize: in nature, monkeypox disease is a relatively rare, usually mild viral illness transmitted through behaviorally modifiable forms of close contact such as sexual intercourse and the hunting and eating of bushmeat. The infectious agent is a very large, complex DNA virus that transmits poorly from person to person and is much less prone to mutation than numerous other viruses. 

Once one realizes all this, it becomes frankly preposterous to attempt to justify gain-of-function research on such a pathogen for any legitimate purpose. The only plausible reason to do such research on monkeypox is to create a bioweapon – a weaponized virus – and to also create and profit from its countermeasure – a proprietary vaccine.

Pandemic preparedness is a grand deception, a big lie. The monkeypox madness demonstrates this, as compellingly as a smoking gun at a murder scene. We must put an end to all gain-of-function research and to the bogus pandemic preparedness excuse for illegal bioweapons research.

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXZANDER

BOOM! Trump calls for death penalty for migrants who kill U.S. citizens & I love it & I want this to be investigated fast and decided fast & if 100%, put to death fast! Over to you 45, seal border,

mass deport all illegals as you said, and any who kill an American put to death on US soil, keep them for that…

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 15

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MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

The Most Beautiful Word In The Dictionary

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 12:30 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Most Beautiful Word in the Dictionary

Donald Trump sat down for an hour long interview with Bloomberg Editor in Chief John Micklethwait yesterday. The conversation was mostly centerd on the economy, and Trump played the hits early by describing ‘tariff’ as “the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. Trump’s comment came in response to a question about the impact of his policies on the federal debt in light of analysis from the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, which claimed that a second Trump Presidency would grow the debt by $7.5 trillion whereas Kamala Harris’ program would add $3.5 trillion.

Under Trump Mk II “we’re going to build a wall and Mexico is going to pay for it” has become “we’re going to build a tariff wall, and everyone else is going to pay for it”. Trump reprised the Laffer Curve by suggesting that he was the only candidate with a plan for growth and that stronger growth, alongside tariffs, would be sufficient to pay for sweeping tax cuts as companies seek to relocate production inside the United States.

Q. Your proposed policies would wreck the economy, and lead to higher inhalation and $7.5 trillion in debt. Even the conservative WSJ says it.

Trump: “What does the Wall Street Journal know? They've been wrong about everything. So have you.” pic.twitter.com/UPHb2LObaS

— Republicans against Trump (@RpsAgainstTrump) October 15, 2024

To illustrate his point on the beauty of tariffs, Trump recounted a conversation he had with an auto executive where he claimed that large-scale automotive factory projects in Mexico had been abandoned once it became clear that Trump was running and was competitive in the race for the White House. “If I run this country, I’m going to put a one-hundred, two-hundred, one-thousand per cent tariff. They’re not going to sell one car into the United States.” The Mexican Peso promptly slumped after his comments.

Europe also came in for criticism with Trump complaining that Europeans treat America “very badly”. He pointed to how few Chevrolets and Fords are sold in Germany, while “millions” of Volkswagens, BMWs and Mercedes Benzs are a feature on American roads. Trump contended that high tariffs would force European automakers to relocate production to the USA, which seems timely given the Empire Manufacturing Survey unexpectedly fell to a reading of -11.9 yesterday from +11.5 in September.

No doubt the specter of (further) forced deindustrialisation from mercantilist trade policies will send a shiver down the spine of European industrialists. Especially in light of news yesterday that Dutch tech giant ASML’s stock experienced the sharpest 1-day drop in 26 years after missing third quarter sales estimates by almost 50%. The sharp fall for ASML bled over into prices for US chipmakers, helping the S&P500 to finish 0.75% lower on the day while the NASDAQ dropped 1%.

While former President Trump was talking tariffs with Bloomberg, Vice President Harris gave an extended radio interview with Charlamagne Tha God. Polling data suggests the Harris campaign has been losing ground in recent days, particularly with male voters, and Nate Silver’s election outcome prediction model now sees the race as a 50-50 dead heat. Betting markets began pricing in Trump momentum somewhat earlier, and now indicate that Trump is most likely to be the next President.

https://polymarket.com/embed/elections/map?event=presidency&theme=light

Harris’s interview with Charlamagne Tha God was likely intended to target the important African American male demographic and covered off on issues like Harris’ support for the legalization of recreational marijuana, whether or not Donald Trump is a fascist (Harris says he is) and, sensationally, the concept of reparation payments for African Americans to which Harris says “it has to be studied. There’s no question.” Presumably the cost of reparations payments are not factored into the CBO’s $3.5trn estimate of the impact of Harris’ policies on the national debt.

https://twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/184631414136076742

As we approach the November 5th election date the Treasuries curve has trimmed the steepening that had been a feature in September as long yields jumped following the Fed’s 50bps rate cut. Recent flattening has been mainly due to the rising short end yields as exuberance over potential rate cuts collided with higher than expected payrolls and CPI figures over the last two weeks. Yields finished lower across the board yesterday with the short end continuing to outperform.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly picked up on recent strong data by intimating that the Fed could skip a cut at one of the two remaining policy meetings this year. That stands in contrast to clear forward guidance from Jerome Powell at the NABE Conference in late September, where he suggested that the Fed was likely to cut by 25bps at each meeting. Trump remains unimpressed with the Fed Chair’s command of monetary policy, telling Bloomberg that “it’s the greatest job in government. You show up to the office once a month and you say ‘let’s say flip a coin’ and everybody talks about you like you’re a God.”

While bets on the pace of cuts in the US are pared back, the inflation pulse seems to be fading fast almost everywhere else. The final read of September CPI in France saw the year-on-year EU harmonized figure revised down 1-tick to 1.4%, Canadian September CPI undershot expectations by two-ticks to sit at 1.6% y-o-y (lifting the odds of a 50bp cut from the BOC next week) and New Zealand’s Q3 CPI also printed a little softer than expected to take the annual headline rate to just 2.2%.

When asked whether the soft CPI figures could prompt the RBNZ to cut by 75bps in November, Assistant Governor Karen Silk studiously avoided answering the question.

‘Tariff’ might be the most beautiful word in the dictionary, but in financial markets the most beautiful words are still ‘rate cuts!’

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

Canada Expels 6 Indian Diplomats For Alleged Involvement In Murder Of Sikh Separatist

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 – 11:00 PM

Via Middle East Eye

Canada expelled six top Indian diplomats and consular officials on Monday, including India’s high commissioner, citing them as “persons of interest” in the murder of Sikh separatist figure, Hardeep Singh Nijjar. 

In June 2023 Nijjar was assassinated by masked gunmen in Vancouver, British Columbia, after which three Indian nationals were arrested and charged for the crime. The investigation triggered a diplomatic spat in September when Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau alleged that the Indian government was involved in the killing.

New Delhi denies the allegations. On Monday, Canadian law enforcement authorities accused the Indian government of running a wide-ranging criminal network to intimidate and target Canadian Sikh separatists.

India’s High Commissioner to Canada Sanjay Kumar Verma was declared persona non grata by the Canadian government along with a number of other officials for their alleged roles in criminal activity, extortion and homicide.

“The decision to expel these individuals was made with great consideration and only after the RCMP (Royal Canadian Mounted Police) gathered ample, clear and concrete evidence which identified six individuals as persons of interest in the Nijjar case,” the foreign ministry said in a statement.

The development marks a new low between India and Canada, with the potential to rupture ties between the two Commonwealth nations. The Indian government accused Trudeau of making the decision based on a “political agenda” and said it was pulling its diplomats out of Canada.

“We have no faith in the current Canadian Government’s commitment to ensure their security. Therefore, the Government of India has decided to withdraw the High Commissioner and other targeted diplomats and officials,” India’s foreign ministry said in a statement. 

On Monday New Delhi also announced that it, too, would be expelling six Canadian diplomats, including the Canadian embassy’s second-highest ranking diplomat, Stewart Wheeler, the charge d’affaires.

Canada’s law enforcement authorities have a “significant amount of information about the breadth and depth of criminal activity orchestrated by agents of the government of India in consequential threats to the safety and security of Canadians and individuals living in Canada,” the RCMP said in a statement.

The law enforcement agency said the government of India is linked to homicides and extortion and used organized crime to target the South Asian community in Canada and interfere in democratic processes.

The Indian government says that Canada has yet to provide any evidence of its investigation into Nijjar’s killing or India’s involvement in the assassination. “This latest step follows interactions that have again witnessed assertions without any facts. This leaves little doubt that on the pretext of an investigation, there is a deliberate strategy of smearing India for political gains,” India’s foreign ministry said on Monday.

Later on Monday Prime Minister Trudeau released a statement defending Canada’s actions, saying that India’s response to the allegations has been denial, obfuscation, and personal attacks. “[It] is obvious that the government of India made a fundamental error in thinking that they could engage in supporting criminal activity against Canadians here on Canadian soil. “We will never tolerate the involvement of a foreign government threatening and killing Canadian citizens on Canadian soil.”

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada accused the Indian government of homicide and extortion intended to silence critics of India living in Canada, escalating a bitter dispute that began last year with the assassination of a Sikh activist. https://t.co/AXyfmvJhiR pic.twitter.com/YjIgQ1Nkoi

— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 14, 2024

Canada withdrew more than 40 diplomats from India in October 2023 after New Delhi asked Ottawa to reduce its diplomatic presence. Canada is host to one of the largest Indian diaspora communities in the world with a population of just under two million, with Sikhs dominating the community at 36 percent compared to Hindus as 32 percent of the diaspora. The majority of the diaspora is concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia. 

Assassination plot in US

US prosecutors in New York in November charged an Indian national with a failed attempt to assassinate an American citizen on US soil, according to an indictment.

Authorities say that an unnamed Indian government official recruited 52-year-old Nikhil Gupta, who went on to contact someone he believed to be a hitman, to kill Gurpatwant Singh Pannun. Pannun is a prominent Sikh activist and New York-based lawyer for the Punjabi secessionist group, Sikhs for Justice.

The individual Gupta contacted was, however, not a hit man but an undercover officer working for the US Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA). According to Wednesday’s indictment, Gupta had brokered a deal in which the unnamed Indian government employee would pay the hitman $100,000 for the killing.

The indictment did not name Pannun as the victim. However, Biden administration officials later said that the target of the failed assassination was the Sikh activist.

“The dedicated law enforcement agents and prosecutors in this case foiled and exposed a dangerous plot to assassinate a US citizen on US soil,” assistant attorney general Matthew Olsen said in a statement. “The Department of Justice will be relentless in using the full reach of our authorities to pursue accountability for lethal plotting emanating from overseas.”

The indictment said that the plot to assassinate Pannun took place in June, around the same time that Nijjar was assassinated. Gupta was arrested that same month while in the Czech Republic, which has a bilateral extradition treaty with the US. He faces charges that could land him a sentence of 10 years in jail.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0896 UP 0.0014

USA/ YEN 149.23 UP 0.140 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3033 DOWN .0032

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3777 DOWN 0.0004 (CDN DOLLAR UP 4 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 1.66 PTS OR 0.05%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 31.94 PTS OR 0.16%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .49%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     MOSTLY MIXED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 31.94 PTS OR 0.16%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 1.66 PTS OR 0.05%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.49%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 730.25 POINTS OR 1.83%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2680.40

silver:$31.87

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 103.02 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS FROM  TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.643%  DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.939% DOWN 2 AND 5/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.898 DOWN 5 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.404 DOWN 7 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.1800 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0830 DOWN .0003 OR 3 basis points

USA/Japan: 149.44 UP 0.350 OR YEN IS DOWN 40 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.1025 DOWN 11 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0005 OR 5 BASIS pts  to 1.3776

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.1158 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1317)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.20 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.939

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 3 in basis points from TUESDAY at  4.005% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.294 DOWN 4 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.935 DOWN 1  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2678L95

SILVER AT 11;00: 32.05

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 79.79 PTS OR 0.97%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 53.38 OR 0.27%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 29.97 PTS OR 0.40%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 66.50 OR 0.56%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 81.55 OR 0.28%

WTI Oil price  71.02 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  74.63 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  96.90 ROUBLE UP 0 AND  10/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1800 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1025 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.119 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.902 DOWN 5

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0858 DOWN 0.0029 OR 29 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2980 UP 0.0085 OR 85 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.1125 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.943

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.80 up 0.713 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3757 DOWN 0.0022 CDN dollar UP 22 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.38

Brent OIL:  74.30

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS pts to 4.016

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 4.302%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 2 PTS AT  3.938

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.123 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.904 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 103.39 UP 34 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.17 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  97,09 DOWN 0 AND  10/100 roubles

GOLD  2,665.15 3:30 PM

SILVER: 31.53 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 337.28 PTS OR 0.79%

NASDAQ UP 14.22 PTS OR 0.071%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.65 DOWN .99 PTS OR 4.80%

GLD: $247.15 UP 1.23 OR 0.50%

SLV/ $28,92 UP .21 OR 0.71%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: 139.62 UP .57%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Gold, Bitcoin, & The Dollar Surge Ahead Of Retail Sales; Markets “Very Convinced” Of Trump Victory

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 04:00 PM

VIX remains ‘sticky’ above 20… even as stocks manage gains…

Source: Bloomberg

The short-term vol market is anticipating some movement tomorrow around the retail sales print (likely to be a blow-out number according to BofA), then some calm before the storm of the election outcome and the FOMC meeting…

Source: Bloomberg

And while on the topic of the election, during the past 12 days, the market has seemed “very convinced Trump is going to win,” Druckenmiller said Wednesday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

“You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto.”

Source: Bloomberg

The former Soros money manager predicted that it’s “extremely unlikely” that Democrats will gain control of Congress even if Harris were to win the presidency.

If there were a so-called blue sweep, he said, equities may be troubled for three to six months.

He also said that a red sweep is “probably more likely than a Trump presidency with a blue Congress.”

Since the Trump-Harris debate, stocks confirm Druck’s views, shifting sharply in favor of a Trump victory (to a new high today)…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, Small Caps outperformed once again (amid another big shot squeeze and strength in financials). Nasdaq ended the day unchanged (ASML worries continues to weigh)…

Another day, another short squeeze…

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq underperperformed Russell 2000 once again, pulling that ratio down to the lower end of its channel from the last year…

Source: Bloomberg

Morgan Stanley surged higher today on earnings, catching up to Wells Fargo. Citi remains the biggest loser…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were lower across the curve today, but only modestly (1-2bps). The long-end continues to outperform on the week (notably curve flattening)…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y yield slid to 4.00% and found support there today…

Source: Bloomberg

2025 rate-cut expectations are rising once again (now back to pre-payrolls levels) while 2024 expectations remain more hawkish…

Source: Bloomberg

Credit spreads remain ridiculously tight – both relative to equity risk as well as relative to historical cycles…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar pushed higher once again – reaching its highest since August 2nd’s payrolls puke…

Source: Bloomberg

And despite the dollar strength, gold rallied up to a new closing record high…

Source: Bloomberg

That’s quite a ‘decoupling’ between gold and the greenback…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin continues to rip (Trump victory?), topping $68,000 today for the first time since July…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices trod water today, with WTI holding just above $70.00 ahead of tonight’s API inventory data…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, USA sovereign risk has surged to its highest in a year…

Source: Bloomberg

What is the market worrying about?

MORNING TRADING/

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

FEMA Still Paying $9,000 For COVID Funerals, Billions On Pandemic Payouts

Tuesday, Oct 15, 2024 – 11:25 PM

By Brian McGlinchey at Stark Realities

As the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) carries out widely-criticized responses to Hurricanes Helene and Milton, officials say the agency’s Disaster Recovery Fund is incapable of handling a third major storm. While some are circulating false accusations that disaster funds have been diverted to immigrants or poured into the proxy war in Ukraine, a review of the agency’s 2024 outlays reveals a different, ongoing drain on FEMA’s coffers: Long after the end of the declared Covid-19 emergency, FEMA is still pumping out billions of dollars to pay for pandemic expenses — including, believe it or not, up to $9,000 each for funerals.

As previously detailed here at Stark Realities, governments’ response to the Covid-19 pandemic was disastrous on many fronts. While the Pandora’s box of collateral damage included widespread harm to the physical and mental health of individuals, it also dealt a blow to the nation’s fiscal well-being, as the federal government recklessly showered trillions of dollars it didn’t have on people, businesses and state and local governments — with much of that money intended to offset the effects of government’s own tyrannical and counterproductive policies.

While all but the most diehard Branch Covidians have moved on from that dark chapter, the federal government has a distinct version of “long Covid.” Though it’s not clear where all the money is going, FEMA is paying up to $9,000 each to reimburse funeral expenses for those who die from Covid.

That’s an especially odd example of government picking winners and losers. As Stanford University School of Medicine professor and prominent Covid-regime critic Jay Bhattacharya said in a social media post that drew my attention to this giveaway program and its hyper-longevity, “There are apparently more and less worthy ways to die in the US.”

Indeed: Why is the family of someone who dies from Covid more deserving of a government-paid funeral than the family of someone who dies from cancer, cardiac arrest or a car accident? It bears emphasis that this question was every bit as relevant in 2020 as it is today.

The favoring of one cause of death over another isn’t the only winners-and-losers dimension of the funeral program: There’s no reimbursement for those who’d planned ahead via pre-paid funerals. Echoing the grievances of people who saved up to pay for college only to see their neighbor’s student loans forgiven by vote-buying politicians, some families say they feel like they’re being punished for having planned for the future.

This isn’t FEMA’s first funereal foray, but it’s the largest by orders of magnitude. In the 10 years before the pandemic, FEMA received about 6,000 applications for funeral assistance for various natural disasters. As of Jan. 1, 2024, FEMA had approved more than 300,000 for Covid-19, shelling out $3.15 billion to cover an expense that, whether caused by a pandemic or something else, is universally inevitable.

Of course, the magnitude of that inevitable expense isn’t fixed, and the mere presence of a government subsidy reliably results in higher costs. Knowing they can spend up to of $9,000 of other people’s money on their Covid-19 funeral, it’s safe to assume many affected families have made more expensive choices than they otherwise would — bolstering the profits of funeral homes, casket producers and other associated businesses.

Unsurprisingly, the National Funeral Directors Association (NFDA), a trade group and principal lobbyist for the industry, hailed the passage of the COVID 19 Relief Package/Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2020. The legislation not only funded Covid funeral reimbursements, NFDA enthused, but also funeral payments “for any subsequent major disaster declared by the President,” an expansion the group had been lobbying for.

To qualify for reimbursement under the funeral assistance program, the death certificate must either indicate the death was caused by Covid-19 — or that it merely may have been caused by Covid-19 or “Covid-19-like symptoms.”

As is increasingly the case with government handouts, there’s no requirement of US citizenship, for either the decedent or the person paying the funeral expenses. A family’s ability to pay for the funeral is likewise irrelevant — there are no income or wealth criteria.

There’s more to the cost of this program than the reimbursements themselves — there’s also significant overhead. Pressed to implement the program as soon as possible, FEMA opted against creating a website to receive applications for reimbursement, choosing to instead require that all claims be submitted via 20-minute phone conversations, necessitating the creation of a huge call center operation staffed by 5,000 phone agents, all of whom would require training and support.

While you might think word-of-mouth would be sufficient to encourage widespread use of a handout program, still more money was spent on advertising. In a 2022 report lamenting that many eligible people hadn’t cashed in yet, NPR’s Blake Farmer — blissfully oblivious to the federal government’s relentless march to insolvency — cheerfully said “FEMA is launching an outreach campaign to promote the program, since there’s plenty of money left.”

Fittingly, NPR found the national leader in funeral reimbursement claims at the time was Washington DC, with applications amounting to 77% of Covid-19 fatalities.

Whether a government handout program takes the form of cash reimbursement, tax credit or subsidy, it inevitably has another cost dimension: so-called “improper payments,” a term encompassing both fraud and errors made by applicants and administrators.

On that score, FEMA’s Covid-19 funeral-funding program has come under repeated criticism from government watchdogs. In 2022, the General Accountability Office (GAO) identified “several gaps in FEMA’s internal controls meant to prevent improper or fraudulent payments” — such as double-payments when two different parties applied for reimbursement for the same funeral, or payments made to applicants who didn’t meet program requirements.

That same year, the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Inspector General (OIG) sent an “urgent” alert to FEMA, saying its audit found the agency “regularly reimburses applicants for expenses expressly excluded from funeral assistance” by the agency’s own policy guide that serves as its interpretation of regulations.

Reimbursable expenses include funeral services, cremation, caskets, urns burial plots, ceremony costs, headstones and clergy compensation. Among the unauthorized expenses are catering, gratuities, flowers and transportation. The OIG learned that, rather than directing claims processors to scrutinize claims to ferret out unauthorized expenses, FEMA told them to “accept for reimbursement all verifiable funeral expenses…listed on expense documents from a funeral home.” Thus, if flowers, for example, were listed on a funeral home bill, reimbursement was approved regardless of FEMA’s standing rule against covering that cost.

The OIG found that 59% of approved applications included ineligible expenses. In one case, FEMA’s loose approach led to an improper reimbursement for $3,760 for transportation that included “two lead escort vehicles, a limousine, and a horse and carriage.”

FEMA admitted its lawyers hadn’t even reviewed its Covid operating procedures. Worse, FEMA resisted the OIG’s post-inquiry recommendations, exasperatingly arguing that if the agency started applying the rules correctly, it “would create inequalities to the detriment of future applicants, who would qualify for less assistance for fewer eligible expenses.” GAO rightly countered that FEMA was itself creating inequalities — by reimbursing funeral expenses that it hadn’t reimbursed for previous disasters and shouldn’t reimburse for future ones.

While it serves as a vivid illustration of irrational, wasteful and persistent spending that accompanies both bona fide and contrived crises, the funeral reimbursement program represents just a small share of ongoing Covid-related government outlays: In the fiscal year that ended September 30, FEMA tallied $15 billion in Covid-19 commitments, accounting for a startling 39% of all FEMA disaster relief obligations.

Not coincidentally, FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund is repeatedly running on empty, prompting additional, multi-billion-dollar infusions from Congress. Seeking still more money Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas earlier this month told reporters that “FEMA does not have the funds to make it through [hurricane] season.”

His warning prompted a false narrative to erupt along the American right — specifically, that the Disaster Relief Fund has been depleted by $650 million spent on migrants in the 2024 fiscal year. While one can challenge the propriety and constitutionality of that spending, the $650 million didn’t come from the Disaster Relief Fund, but from a separate, congressionally-appropriated program and account.

Rather than parroting false narratives, conservatives should be asking why the Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) is still being hammered by Covid payouts to state, local and tribal governments, hospitals, non-profits and others. At least one federal legislator is already on the case — on Friday, Texas Rep. Chip Roy sent a letter to FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell, spotlighting the troubling state of affairs:

“The depletion of the DRF is of particular concern considering the sheer amount of funding that has gone to COVID-19 projects nearly a year and a half after the COVID-19 emergency – which should have been terminated much earlier – was terminated.

According to a FEMA document, as of October 4, 2024, nearly $4 billion – or 45% – of the DRF funding that was delayed … was for COVID-19 projects. About $1.2 billion of that COVID-19 funding would go to the state of California alone.”

In addition to requesting a full accounting of Covid and non-Covid spending, Roy asked Criswell to explain how her agency would prevent Covid-19 projects from continuing to “jeopardize FEMA’s ability to use the DRF in the future to respond to disasters, absent a massive increase in congressional appropriations.”

Barring an extension, FEMA will finally stop accepting Covid-funeral reimbursement applications on September 30, 2025. However, as of now, the agency plans on tapping its disaster fund for other Covid-19 outlays for four more years —to the tune of another $22.2 billion between now and September 2028.

That’s assuming FEMA’s estimate is accurate, but cost estimations are another recurring weakness of the organization. Indeed, FEMA originally estimated $17.6 billion in total Covid-19 outlays over the duration of the emergency. By March of this year, its estimate had soared to $171.6 billion.

* * *

Stark Realities undermines official narratives, demolishes conventional wisdom and exposes fundamental myths across the political spectrum. Read more and subscribe at starkrealities.substack.com  

end

We knew not to believe the FBI anyway!

(Lott Jr/)

Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 09:45 AM

Authored by John R. Lott Jr. via RealClearInvestigations,

When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.

But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.

The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release. 

RCI discovered the change through a cryptic reference on the FBI website that states: “The 2022 violent crime rate has been updated for inclusion in CIUS, 2023.” But there is no mention that the numbers increased. One only sees the change by downloading the FBI’s new crime data and comparing it to the file released last year.

After the FBI released its new crime data in September, a USA Today headline read: “Violent crime dropped for third straight year in 2023, including murder and rape.” 

It’s been over three weeks since the FBI released the revised data. The Bureau’s lack of acknowledgment or explanation about the significant change concerns researchers.

“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” Carl Moody, a professor at the College of William & Mary who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point. The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data.”

“It is up to the FBI to explain what they have done, and they haven’t explained these large changes,” Dr. Thomas Marvell, the president of Justec Research, a criminal justice statistical research organization, told RCI.

The FBI did not respond to RCI’s repeated requests for comment.

Extensive Revisions in Violent Crime Stats

The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?

Without the increase, the drop in violent crime in 2023 would have been less than half as large – only 1.6% instead of the reported drop of 3.5%.

The FBI isn’t the only government agency that has been revising its data. The Bureau of Labor Statistics massively overestimated the number of jobs created during the year that ended in March by 818,000 people.

The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The Bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures they report.

“The [FBI’s] processes, such as how it tries to ‘estimate’ unreported figures, has long been a black box, even to the Bureau of Justice Statistics – the Department of Justice’s actual statistical agency,” says Jeffrey Anderson, who headed the DOJ’s Bureau of Justice Statistics from 2017 to 2021. 

Anderson said when he headed the Bureau of Justice Statistics, “We definitely would have highlighted in a press release or a report the 6.6% change recorded for 2022, which moved the numbers from a drop to a rise in violent crime.”

Many Crimes Are Unreported

Another problem with FBI crime data is its reliance on reported crimes. Most crimes go unreported, with only about 45% of violent crimes and 30% of property crimes brought to the police’s attention, according to the National Crime Victimization Survey. Since the FBI only tracks reported incidents and this gap is so large, researchers argue that when the media discusses crime rates based on FBI data, they should clarify that it reflects “reported” crime, not give the impression that total crime is changing.

Nonreporting of crime doesn’t affect all crimes equally. Nonreporting of murder and motor vehicle theft is relatively rare. In murder cases, victims can’t be overlooked, and for auto theft, insurance claims require police reports. However, it’s difficult to fully trust even these numbers because the FBI underreported 1,699 murders and 54,216 motor vehicle thefts in 2022, casting doubt on the reliability of the data.

Although recent attention has focused on the decline in murder rates, even with the revised numbers, the 16.2% drop from 2020 to 2023 still leaves murder rates 9.6% higher than pre-COVID levels. 

A half-century ago, the DOJ provided a total crime measure, including both reported and unreported crime. The results of the department’s Bureau of Justice Statistics 2023 National Crime Victimization Survey, released in mid-September, tell a very different story from the FBI data. 

The NCVS interviews 240,000 people each year about their personal experiences.

Instead of the FBI’s 3.5% drop in the reported violent crime rate in 2023, the NCVS found a 4.1% increase in the reported violent crime rate. Even with the revised FBI numbers, in 2022, the FBI’s 4.5% increase pales in comparison to the NCVS’s 29.1% increase.

Over the past few years, the number of police officers has declined because of cuts in budgets and many retirements. One result is that police departments nationwide – from  Charlottesville and Henrico County, Va., to Chicago, Ill. and Olympia, Wash. – are no longer responding to calls unless the perpetrator is still there actively committing the crime. Instead of police coming out to investigate and take a report, residents in those jurisdictions can still go to the police station and wait in line to get a police report filled out. In addition, despite the widespread belief that calling 911 is enough to report a crime, the FBI officially doesn’t tally 911 calls. It only counts crimes when police make out an official report.

Other Data Show Sharper Rises in Crime

While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.

The increases shown by the NCVS during the Biden-Harris administration are by far the largest percentage increases over any three years, slightly more than doubling the previous record.

Comparing 2023 rates with 2019 pre-COVID violent crime rates, the FBI’s new 2023 data show virtually no improvement – just a 0.2% drop – while the NCVS shows a 19% increase over that period. But the news media didn’t cover the crime survey when it was released last month.

“With the media using the 2022 FBI data to tell us for a year that crime was falling, it is disappointing that there are no news articles correcting that misimpression,” Moody told RCI. “We will have to see whether the FBI later also revises the 2023 numbers.”

At the beginning of this year, the media was running headlines like National Public Radio’s: “Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don’t believe it.” “At some point in 2022 … there was just a tipping point where violence started to fall and it just continued to fall,” NPR claimed. But now the FBI has itself admitted its violent crime numbers were way off.

Even as polls show that Americans are concerned about crime, the FBI and the media are making it difficult to see how crime rates have changed over the last few years. A Gallup survey late last year found that 92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was increasing. A February Rasmussen Reports survey found that, by a 4.7-to-1 margin, likely voters say violent crime in the U.S. is getting worse (61%), not better (13%). A Gallup poll found in March that “crime and violence” was Americans’ second biggest concern, after inflation. But the media and politicians used the inaccurate FBI data to try to convince people that they were wrong.

“This FBI report is stunning because it now doesn’t state that violent crime in 2022 was much higher than it had previously reported, nor does it explain why the new rate is so much higher, and it issued no press release about this large revision,” said David Mustard, the Josiah Meigs Distinguished Professor at the University of Georgia who researches extensively on crime. “This lack of transparency harms the FBI’s credibility.”

John R. Lott Jr. is president of the Crime Prevention Research Center and he lives in Missoula. He served as senior adviser for research and statistics in the Office of Justice Programs and the Office of Legal Policy at the Justice Department.

end

Latest trends…

US Drinking Rates Hit Highest Level Since 1970s Inflation Storm As Tequila Demand Soars

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 10:05 AM

A broad overview of America’s beer, spirits, and wine consumption reveals a steady increase since the Dot Com bust, with per capita levels approaching the highs last seen during the inflation-driven misery storm of the 1970s. Economic misery and rising alcohol consumption often go hand in hand.

“During periods of recession, US per capita alcohol consumption from beer, spirits and wine has been very resilient. Total beer volume declined in 2009 whilst spirits volume continued to grow,” Goldman’s Olivier Nicolaï told clients in a note on Tuesday. 

Nicolaï noted, “Within overall US alcohol consumption, beer has been steadily losing share to spirits over the last 20 years. Within the spirits category, tequila has been gaining market share at the expense of vodka over recent years.”

Six decades of US per capita alcohol consumption data shows how war and economic misery can impact drinking rates among consumers. From the 1960s to the 1970s, the rate of alcohol consumption soared on a per capita basis, likely due to foreign wars and high inflation. Around the time the Fed regained control of inflation with interest rate hikes in the late 1970s and early 80s, consumption rates eventually topped and fell as easier economic conditions led to boom cycles. However, drinking rates bottomed at the end of the 90s, rising just after the Dot Com bust, rising higher with endless Middle East wars, dipped slightly but jumped following the 2008 GFC, and surged in recent years after government-enforced lockdowns during the pandemic, Ukraine War, and ongoing inflation storm. 

One noticeable trend Nicolaï found in the latest surge in drinking trends is that spirits have become increasingly popular in the US market as beer demand slides. 

He said tequila has become the top spirit of choice among US drinkers, a trend that became apparent in 2016. 

Only five players control about 50% of spirit volumes in the US. 

Here’s the latest US spirits market data via Nielsen about drinking trends on a 4-week basis to October 5… 

Given all of this, Nicolaï explained to clients his rating coverage on each of the top spirit producers:

• Diageo (Sell): USA accounted for 35% of Diageo FY23 sales and 45% of EBIT. Diageo’s volumes including RTD declined -0.6% (-2.9% Aug/Sept). Sales were up +3.4%, ahead of the market at +1.9%. Performance continued to be driven by Don Julio, which grew volumes +35.9%, and Crown Royal, which accelerated to +16.3% thanks to Crown Royal Blackberry launched in February 2024. Casamigos volumes are weak down -7.9% (vs -8.5% in Aug/Sept). Captain Morgan underperformed the category, down -7.2% (vs -5.8% for the category). Cîroc (-21.7%) and Smirnoff (-5.1%) volumes both underperformed.
• Pernod (Buy): USA accounted for 19% of Pernod FY23 sales and 24% of EBIT. Pernod’s volumes including RTD declined -0.2%, sequentially improving from -3.4% in July/August. Sales declined by -5.4% due to negative price/mix. Volumes excluding RTD declined -5.4%, underperforming the market. Jameson volume improved sequentially to -6.6%, from -8.3% in Aug/Sept. Absolut saw volumes sequentially improve to -1.6%. Martell saw strong volume growth, up +16.3%, against an easier comp. Glenlivet (-10.6%) and Malibu (-7.8%) volumes sequentially improved. In RTD, Absolut saw strong growth up +75.4%. Due to destocking, we expect -10% sales in the US for Pernod in Q1 on October 17 (here) and are below consensus for the group.
• Campari (Neutral): USA accounts for 28% of FY23 group sales. Campari volume declined -0.4%, with sales up +2.2% still above the market. The sequential volume improvement was driven by an acceleration in Aperol to +5.3% (+2.0% in Aug/Sept). Espolon Tequila performed strongly, accelerating volumes to +21.4%, whilst SKYY volumes also improved sequentially to -4.7% (-11.1% in Aug/Sept). Appleton (+10.0%) and Wray and Nephew (+5.7%) saw strong growth in rum. Courvoisier (acquired April 2024) volume are declining -9.4%, but improved sequentially (-14.8% in September/August).
• Remy (Buy): USA accounts for 35% of FY24 group sales. Remy saw volumes decline -13.8%, with sales down -15.6%, implying -2.1% negative price/mix. In Cognac, Remy Martin volumes declined -21.4%, remaining broadly unchanged sequentially against a more difficult comp. Hennessy volumes declined -2.4%, but saw -3.4% price/mix compared to -0.1% for Remy Martin. Cointreau volumes improved sequentially to -3.7%. (vs -6.8% Aug/Sept).

The big takeaway is that US consumers have been steadily increasing their alcohol intake in the last several years, some of which has been spirits, amid the blowback in failed Bidenomics igniting an inflation storm – unleashing economic misery – similar to what was seen in the 1970s. Plus, disastrous foreign policy, igniting some of the highest World War III threats in a generation, has also pushed more folks to the bottle.

END

SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS DATA TO US:

JDBYD on X: “JUST IN – Trump’s lead just set another record high against Kamala Harris – Polymarket Trump • 57.7% chance Harris • 41.9% chance It is simply shocking to me that anyone can actually vote for Kamala… https://t.co/UQ6rmC1hbX” / X

https://x.com/JDBYD2/status/1846551100821827927

END

“I Can’t Stand Donald Trump, But…” Viral X Post Is All You Need To Know Ahead Of Election Day

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 10:25 AM

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A lengthy post by an American who says he “can’t stand” Donald Trump but is still voting for him rather than than Kamala has gone viral, and for good reason. 

It’s succinct, elegantly written and it shows how woeful Harris is on key points.

It has an astounding 56 million views at time of writing.

Here it is.

I can't stand Donald Trump. He is braggy, he insults people for no reason, and he is just a brutal personality. But my mind is made up. I'm voting for him and here's why:

* He puts Americans and their well-being first. Kamala will not.

* He will bring @elonmusk into his…

— Jason (@Bitcoin4Freedom) October 15, 2024

The post continues (emphasis ours):

* He will bring @elonmusk into his cabinet to be the efficiency czar and get rid of waste. This alone may be the best single reason to vote for him. 

* He will bring @RobertKennedyJr into his cabinet to Make American Healthy Again. He will finally get to the bottom of why our food companies are destroying the health of our children.

* I’m sick of the way the media lies continuously about @realDonaldTrump, starting with the incessant racism claims. They are just nonsense. The latest thing I learned? He sent his plane to fly Nelson Mandela home after he was in jail with the U.S. wouldn’t do it. Racist? No.

* I’m sick of the U.S. being embroiled in foreign wars. Trump will keep us out of them again. He’s just crazy enough that foreign nations will stand down. They have no fear of Kamala. They will fear him.

* Trump sees this country as fundamentally good. Kamala sees it as inherently evil.

* Trump will end the nonsense of the open border which makes our country less secure, less financially stable, and brings in millions of people illegally who compete for Americans’ jobs.

* This government has to print billions to care for the illegals. That makes all of our dollars less valuable and makes prices zoom upward.

* He will stockpile Bitcoin.

* He will keep men out of women’s bathrooms and women’s sports.

* He is a heavyweight personality and negotiator. Kamala is a phony personality and a lightweight negotiator.

* The people who want Kamala Harris to win are the most annoying people in the country. They have pushed for pronouns, masks, endless vaccines, cancel culture, riots, blatant racism towards whites, gender confusion, undermining the U.S. constitution.

* He will upset the current political system. He was nearly the victim of assassination 3x. And he keeps going. He’s not the best in interviews, but he at least puts himself out there. Over and over and over. Kamala hasn’t done a single press conference.

* Harris and the media trying to prop her up hid Biden’s cognitive decline. They accuse @realDonaldTrump of being a threat to democracy. Yet she was installed as the nominee with no votes. She wants to pack the Supreme Court. She wants to eliminate the filibuster. She sued @RobertKennedyJr to keep him off the ballot. And the threat to democracy is Trump? Nonsense.

* Those who support Harris look at Trump supporters as vile, stupid, ignorant, and fascists. They disown family members or disinvite them from Thanksgiving dinner of they support Trump. This is disgraceful.

* Every time she talks, I try to give her a chance. But she is the most phony and condescending politician I have ever seen. Ever. I can’t do it. I won’t do it.

* She and those who support her are resistant to Voter ID and believe requiring an ID is racist. Her Department of Justice is suing the state of Virginia for trying to purge the voter rolls of illegals. Why would we not want 1 vote per 1 U.S. citizen? Is it more racist to believe people from the inner city are perfectly capable of securing a government issued ID? Or to believe they are incapable?

That’s it. I’m done. Thanks for hearing me out.

Yeah, that about sums it up!

Harris and the Democrats are in big trouble.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

KING REPORT

The King Report October 16, 2024  Issue 7349

Independent View of the News

US Weighs Capping Nvidia, AMD AI Chip Sales to Some Countries – BBG 20:46 ET Monday   Nvidia tumbled as much as 6.7% (by 10:40 ET).  Beaucoup traders and operators got caned.   Dutch (AI) chipmaker ASML plunged as much as 15% in Amsterdam and 17.8% in NYSE trading.  The company missed on Q3 revenue (€2.63B, €5.39B exp.) and lowered 2025 guidance to €30B-35B, €30-€40B prior.  It sees Q4 sales of €8.8B to €9.2B, €8.95B consensus.   ASML cuts sales forecasts in Q3 earnings published early; shares plummet https://www.reuters.com/technology/asml-earnings-published-early-shares-fall-2024-10-15/   The NY Fed’s Empire Manufacturing Index for October plunged from +11.5 to -11.9, the biggest m/m decline since January. +3.6 was consensus.  Prices paid for materials increased to a six-month high of 29, 23.2 prior.  New Orders tumbled to -10.2 from 9.4; shipments sank to -2.7 from 17.9.   Bank of America tops estimates on better-than-expected trading revenue   Why Buffett is dumping BofA: provision for credit losses highest since covid lockdown https://t.co/qt8pcAivgc   Netanyahu debunked the WaPo report that Israel would not attack Iran’s oil or nuclear assets.  “We listen to the opinions of the United States, but we will make our final decisions based on our national interests.” (Bibi’s office per Bloomberg)   Nevertheless, oil and gasoline plunged on Team Obama-Harris’s probable intervention in the energy markets ahead of the US election.  Ya think ‘they’ will allow stocks to tumble ahead of the election?   @economics: Global public debt is set to reach $100 trillion, or 93% of global GDP, by the end of this year, driven by the US and China, according to new analysis by the IMF https://t.co/LtYTD7sQ6t   Walgreens to close 1,200 stores nationwide, says 1 in 4 locations are unprofitable https://trib.al/oIJiOgR   @TrumpWarRoom: Bloomberg News Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait: Just for the record, The Economic Club of Chicago and Bloomberg invited Vice President Harris to a similar interview. She has declined.   https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1846232727403765847   @bennyjohnson: TRUMP: “What does the Wall Street Journal know? They’ve been wrong about everything. So have you, by the way… you’ve (BBG Editor) been wrong all your life on this stuff.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617   @greg_price11: Bloomberg: People are betting that your economic policies will drive up inflation. Are the investors wrong? Trump: “I had four years of no inflation.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617      President Trump just cooked the neo-lib Editor-in-Chief of Bloomberg on using tariffs to protect America: “It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as being negative and then have somebody explain to you that you’re totally wrong.”  https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617   @faststocknewss: Trump interviewer just now: Richard John Micklethwait CBE is editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News – In November 2019, Micklethwait ordered his staff not to investigate their boss, Michael Bloomberg, nor any other Democratic candidates, during Bloomberg’s presidential campaign. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/24/bloomberg-news-will-not-investigate-mike-bloomberg-or-his-democratic-rivals-during-primary.html   Bloomberg in general is virulently anti-Trump.  Micklethwait is ex-The Economist editor in chief.  Trump interviewing with Micklethwait is like Harris interviewing with Tucker Carlson.    At the Economic Club of Chicago soiree, DJT said Powell cut rates too much; and while the president cannot order the Fed to cut or hikes rates, he can comment on what the Fed does.   @TrumpWarRoom: President Trump just COOKED the Federal Reserve: “It’s the greatest job (Fed CEO) in government. You show up to the office once a month and say ‘hmm lets flip a coin.’ And everyone talks about you like you’re a God.”    https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617   Trump says GOP is ‘party of common sense’ during contentious Bloomberg interview https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-says-gop-party-common-sense-during-contentious-bloomberg-interview   Trump Destroys Bloomberg EIC, Receives Standing Ovation in Chicago https://www.zerohedge.com/political/trump-destroys-bloomberg-eic-receives-standing-ovation-chicago   SF Fed Pres & uber-dove Mary Daly made a tacit admission that the Fed’s jumbo rate cut was a mistake.   Fed’s Daly open to skipping rate cut at one of two remaining meetings this year https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20241015143/feds-daly-open-to-skipping-rate-cut-at-one-of-two-remaining-meetings-this-year   When asked about breaking up Google, Trump said, “I’d do something.”    @PhilipWegmann: Trump says he called the head of Google “the other day” to complain about the algorithm burying positive press about him–“I think it’s all rigged.”  “Oh and he told me, No way–you’re the No 1 person on all of Google for the first stories.”   It appears that defensive asset allocators were in the markets on Tuesday.  Bonds rallied sharply; equities declined; and commodities got hammered.   ESZs traded mostly positive but flat from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower at 4:00 ET.  After a modest drop, ESZs resumed to trade in a small range.  The rally for the NYSE opening began at 8:52 ET; but it was modest.   ESZs hit a NYSE session high of 5914.00 (daily high 5915.50 at 21:02 ET) at 9:26 ET.  After a slow rollover, ESZs broke down at 10:06 ET.   ESZs intractably declined, with one moderate rally from 10:38 ET to 10:54 ET, until they hit a daily low of 5850.00 at 15:35 ET.  The late manipulation took ESZs to 5867.00 at 15:54 ET.  ESZs fell to 5855.75 at 15:57 ET and rose to 5865.50 at the NYSE close.   Stagflation Odds Jump in Latest NY Fed Survey as Inflation Expectations Rise, Delinquency Fears Hit 4 Year High – US 5yr inflation swaps have seen their “largest 5-week climb since just before SVB’s collapse in March 2023… inflation expectations rose at both the three-year horizon (from 2.5% to 2.7%) and the five-year horizon (from 2.8% to 2.9%)… The anticipated probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 14.2% in September, the fourth straight month of increases.. https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/stagflation-odds-jump-latest-ny-fed-survey-inflation-expectations-rise-deliqnuency-fears   Positive aspects of previous session USZs rallied sharply, +1 10/32 at NYS close Oil and gasoline fell sharply on Team Obama-Harris verbal intervention   Negative aspects of previous session Fangs got hammered; stocks declined sharply; gold rallied smartly   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Does ASML’s sales travail suggest the AI bubble is bursting?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5830.03 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5870.36; 5804.48   US threatens Israel: Resolve humanitarian crisis in Gaza or we will impose arms embargo. https://t.co/ET8R7kRtHo   @DrEliDavid: Biden-Kamala administration threatens to impose an arms embargo if Israel does any of the following: Attack Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities; Attack Hezbollah in Beirut; Stop aid to north Gaza; Pass laws against UNRWA.  Source: @Now14Israel  @Tamir114   Ex-US Ambassador to Israel: @DavidM_Friedman: This is just repugnant. Israel is fighting a war on seven fronts… and Biden/Harris/Blinken/Austin are threatening to hold off assistance to Israel unless Israel increases “humanitarian aid” that invariably just extends the war and is hijacked by Hamas.    As a cruel addendum, the US is demanding that Israel cooperate more fully with the International Committee of the Red Cross when the ICRC has not once — NOT ONCE — visited the civilian hostages held in barbaric conditions by Hamas.     Make no mistake here — this is just political gamesmanship by the Biden/Harris administration to pick up a few more votes among its woke supporters. It is a cynical but deadly gambit that will make a hostage deal even less likely and lead to more carnage and instability. Amateur hour!   @DeAngelisCorey: The government school system has become more of a jobs program for adults than an education initiative for kids. (Since 2000 Administrative staff +95%, students +5%) https://t.co/hUcpHse1ag   Today – The key will be if there is any follow through in AI stock selling and the absence or presence of defensive asset allocators.  ASML shocked AI uber bulls.  If selling appears in AI-related stocks today, the dreaded momentum selling could appear.  The usual suspects will try to halt the decline and change market psychology.  Prudent traders will be cautious and wait for the market to tell a clearer story.   5800 on the S&P 500 Index is important support.  5804.48 was the low yesterday.   ESZs are +2.50; NQZs are +22.50; and USZs are -2/32 at 20:40 ET.   Expected impact earnings: USB .99, ABT 1.20, MS 1.60, DFS 3.33, CSX .48   Expected econ data and events: Sept Import Price Index -0.3% m/m & 0.0% y/y, ex-Petro +0.1% m/m; Export Price Index -0.4% m/m   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5607; 100-day MA: 5527; 150-day MA: 5407; 200-day MA: 5290 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,285; 100-day MA: 40,363; 150-day MA: 39,875; 200-day MA: 39,485 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5815.26 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5434.12 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5749.30 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5854.53 triggers a buy signal   @ElectionTime_: TRUMP SKYROCKETS, NOW LEADS BY 16% on POLYMARKET 2024 Election (Odds to Win): Trump 57.7%, Harris 41.9%  https://x.com/ElectionTime_/status/1846219180791812160   @Kalshi: Trump’s odds have jumped to 57% hitting an all-time high on Kalshi: Donald Trump 57%, Kamala Harris 43% (Even on 10/10)  https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617   Reuters says Kamala Harris is reportedly considering appearing on Joe Rogan’s podcast.  Her poll numbers must be horrendous.    @joma_gc: In another massive blow for the Harris campaign, two powerful organizations within Michigan’s Arab community, ‘Arab American PAC’ and Dearborn-based publication ‘Arab American News’ will NOT endorse a candidate for 2024. Both had previously endorsed Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.   @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala, in Erie, says Democrat Sen. Bob Casey isn’t in attendance because he’s “out doing what he needs to do to get re-elected.” (It’s really because vulnerable Democrats don’t want to be seen anywhere near her)  https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1845975710915350565   @RyanAFournier: Is Kamala Harris stoned on stage tonight? https://x.com/RyanAFournier/status/1845981978409013741   @WesternLensman: Desperate Kamala Unleashes New Fear Campaign: “Trump Will Use the Military to go After” Journalists, Election Officials and Judges.  “We know who he would target, and we know who he would target because he has attacked them before. Journalists whose stories he doesn’t like, election officials who refuse to cheat by filling extra votes and finding extra votes for him. Judges who insist on following the law instead of bending to his will.”  (Desperate but futile braying) https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1845982266322829582   @TrumpWarRoom: Tim Walz is now claiming President Trump said he will “use the Army on people he disagrees with,” which is a disgusting lie.  Walz is a total disgrace — a chronic liar whose sheer incompetence is outmatched only by his freakishness. https://t.co/eUBKiUOxR2   Only delusional people believe Kamala’s deceit.  Trump has been called Hitler and a Nazi for 9 years.  That ploy is futile.  When you go negative, the research is clear: It will drive up your own negatives.  The gamble is that you can drive up your opponent’s negatives more.  Does Harris want to lose?   @TrumpDailyPosts: Kamala’s Medical Report is really bad. With all of the problems that she has, there is a real question as to whether or not she should be running for President! MY REPORT IS PERFECT – NO PROBLEMS!!!      As to her completely desperate request for my Medical Statements, she is dying to see my Cholesterol (which is 180!), I have already provided them, many times, including quite recently, and they were flawless. However, I have just seen Kamala’s Report, and it is not good. According to her Doctor’s Report, she suffers from “urticaria,” defined as “a rash of round, red welts on the skin that itch intensely, sometimes with dangerous swelling.” She also has “allergic rhinitis and allergic conjunctivitis,” a very messy and dangerous situation. These are deeply serious conditions that clearly impact her functioning. Maybe that is why she can’t answer even the simplest of questions asked by 60 Minutes, and others. What is this all about? I don’t have these problems…   Trump forced to cut Pennsylvania town hall short after multiple audience members experience health emergencies https://t.co/AOaxl14WKL   @greg_price11: Kamala HQ is now mocking President Trump because he stopped his town hall when two people in the crowd had medical emergencies and listened to music with his supporters for the last 30 minutes.  A new low for a truly pathetic campaign.      @KamalaHQ: Trump appears lost, confused, and frozen on stage as multiple songs play for 30+ minutes and the crowd pours out of the venue early. https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1846006129953833365     @greg_price11: ABC News did an entire segment this morning debunking this selectively edited video from Kamala HQ, which will go down as truly one of the most pathetic lies a presidential campaign has ever tried to sell.  https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1846205905936724175   @TimMurtaugh: ABC’s Terry Moran, on the PA town hall that turned into an Evening with Donald Trump and some musical selections:   “Inside that hall … people were having a good time. What can I tell you? It did not seem out of the ordinary. It seemed almost intimate … [Trump] came down off the stage and mingled with his supporters. He was signing autographs and shaking hands and the like.” https://x.com/TimMurtaugh/status/1846201400977461697   Viral Account Pushing Pro-Kamala Misinformation Was Launched by Biden Admin Employee Founder of ‘Kamala’s Wins’ account is working in Biden-Harris admin, earning taxpayer-funded salary https://www.dailywire.com/news/kamalas-wins-viral-source-of-pro-kamala-misinformation-was-launched-by-biden-admin-employee   @SpeakerJohnson: I recently traveled to NC and victims of Hurricane Helene told me nearly two weeks after landfall, the Biden-Harris Administration had STILL not provided them with all the resources they desperately needed. But CBS selectively edited OUT ENTIRELY this first-hand perspective. https://t.co/ZjO5LWdtsM     Apparently, CBS also doesn’t want you to hear about Virginia Gov. Youngkin, who is trying to clean the state’s voter rolls so non-American citizens can’t vote there. We need more states doing this, but the Biden-Harris Administration is SUING VIRGINIA and trying to STOP it.     The Biden-Harris Admin let millions of illegal aliens in our country. So, the House passed the SAVE Act to ensure only American citizens vote in American elections. CBS edited that out and focused on 2020 instead of immediate threats to election integrity.  (William Paley must be spinning in his grave!)   @realDonaldTrump: I’ve done 60 Minutes many times, even back in the good ol’ days when Journalism was respected and legit, but I have never seen a very poor answer being REPLACED by another, totally unrelated answer, in order to save the person great personal and professional embarrassment. What 60 Minutes did in doing this was Election Interference and Fraud. It is the worst and most blatant scandal in Broadcast History and will not be soon forgotten. Just watch!   Kamala Harris urges black men to vote for her to legalize weed — despite convicting 1,900 as DA https://trib.al/3fdDC6q   After Locking Up Thousands for Weed, Kamala Harris Patronizes Black Men in Pot Pandering Scheme  https://www.zerohedge.com/political/next-level-vote-buying-harris-promises-black-men-20k-forgivable-loans   NY Times accused of ‘lying about’ Kamala Harris plagiarism allegations to minimize scandal https://trib.al/qNWUcjF   @realchrisrufo: This is a ninth instance of significant plagiarism by Kamala Harris. Although she cited the source, she copied long passages of language verbatim, without paraphrasing or putting it in quotations. It’s textbook “verbatim plagiarism”—and not an isolated incident… https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617   @realchrisrufo: Somebody hang this in the Louvre. The New York Times claims that I “seize[d] on” Kamala Harris’s serial plagiarism. Admits later in the story that it is, in fact, plagiarism. And then calls noticing that fact “racist.” https://t.co/igfEpwP1h7   Today, In Everything Is Racist… As we all know now, everything is somehow racist and must be cancelled and apologised for. With this in mind, behold, a racist candle. Bath & Body Works were forced to apologise after someone complained that this “snowed in” candle, featuring (ironically) a paper snowflake on the front was actually a nod to the Ku Klux Klan… https://modernity.news/2024/10/15/today-in-everything-is-racist/   Trump to visit a McDonald’s in Pennsylvania this Sunday to work the fry cooker – CNN   @TuckerCarlson: Mark Halperin has better political sources than anyone in media. He now believes Donald Trump is likely to win. If that happens, Halperin predicts the psychological collapse of the Democratic Party — “greatest mental health crisis in the history of the country.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846241412901171617   Michigan Firefighters union skips presidential endorsement in another blow to Harris https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/10/15/2024-elections-live-coverage-updates-analysis/firefighters-union-skips-endorsement-00183800   Charlamagne tha God calls out Harris for question ‘filibuster,’ doing ‘a lot of things wrong’ with border in awkward town hall… focused on her appeal to black voters… https://nypost.com/2024/10/15/us-news/charlamagne-tha-god-calls-out-harris-during-awkward-town-hall/   @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala’s highly scripted audio-only “town hall” abruptly — and mercifully — ends while she’s still talking. Brutal! https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1846312169714987183   Liz Cheney contacted controversial J6 witness on encrypted app behind lawyer’s back, messages show – Liability Liz? Text messages raise fresh ethical concerns since Cheney was a DC attorney and local bar rules require approval of defense counsel for any communications with witnesses.     Cheney’s Signal communications with witness Cassidy Hutchinson on June 6, 2022 and her friend, Alyssa Farah Griffin, were recently obtained by Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., chairman of the House Administration oversight subcommittee that has identified significant problems with the original Democrat-run inquiry into the Jan. 6 incident… may have influenced a witness outside of her lawyer’s presence, eventually causing Hutchinson to switch lawyers… (Multiple felonies?) https://justthenews.com/accountability/political-ethics/hldliability-liz-cheney-contacted-controversial-j6-witness   Dem fundraiser ActBlue stole GOP strategist’s identity to make donations: lawsuit https://trib.al/Mvp7Moi   @paulsperry_: Whooping cough cases have surged to record levels in US, CDC says, with NY & NJ comprising highest number of cases–states which happen to have the highest # of resettled illegal migrants, who are typically unvaxxed for whooping cough. Polio and TB also are on the rise.   The Many Lies of Bob Woodward by Roger Stone Bob Woodward lied about Nixon, Watergate, the war in Iraq, Iran-Contra and the late comedian John Belushi. Why should we believe his latest lies about President Donald Trump? https://www.stonecoldtruth.com/p/the-many-lies-of-bob-woodward?triedRedirect=true

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT:

NYPD Admits Armed Migrant Kids From Gov’t-Funded Roosevelt Hotel Terrorizing Times Square

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 03:25 PM

The Biden-Harris administration misled the public with phony FBI crime statistics, pushing the narrative that far-left policies were actually making America safer. Weeks later, those numbers were “revised,” revealing a shocking truth: a 2.1% decrease in US violent crime in 2022 was actually a 4.5% increase! 

What a stunning revision – and not so shocking for readers. 

There it is: FBI "revised" violent crime data, now reporting that instead of a 2.1% drop in violent crime in 2022, it was actually a 4.5% increase. https://t.co/Bvbg0wKy1A pic.twitter.com/h6nfjRRlUb

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 16, 2024

Biden-Harris officials gaslighted the hell out of Americans. Fortunately, this time around, very few folks believe any propaganda that is spewed by woke radicals in the White House and or their MSM cheerleaders. 

Crime is down.

— Pete Buttigieg (@PeteButtigieg) September 24, 2024

This brings us to the current crime crisis spreading across certain New York City boroughs, like stage four cancer, where armed illegal alien kids are brazenly robbing citizens and tourists alike.

Source: NYPost

“We’re talking 20 individuals arrested a total of 50 times… and we have a mix-match of crimes embedded in those. We have anywhere from snatches to what I call wolfpack robberies, where anywhere between five and 15 individuals surround tourists and take their property. We have gunpoint robberies, knifepoint robberies. And these individuals are out, and it’s concerning,” NYPD Detective Bureau Asst. Chief Jason Savino told Fox News on Tuesday, adding these kids are connected with Venezuela’s dangerous Tren de Aragua prison gang.

Stunning admission by the NYPD:

20 Venezuelan gang members in NYC are behind 50 recent 42nd street robberies.

Every single one is still on the street. pic.twitter.com/U5yFIMWJxE

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) October 15, 2024

The New York Post reported earlier this week that some of these migrant gangsters are as young as 11 and being housed in the former Roosevelt Hotel in NYC.

Tren de Aragua members are recruiting these kids straight from the migrant hotels funded by the government. 

“Young kids are the primary target for recruitment of gangs,” a Department of Homeland Security source told NYPost on Tuesday, adding, “Their young, moldable, vulnerable and eager to please minds are easier to lure in than those who have matured more in life.”

The source continued, “Wanting to please a male father figure is something is something all young boys are eager to do,” adding, “They jump at the opportunity to feel involved with something that seems important.”

Here’s more from a separate NYPost report:

Law enforcement sources said gang members hid among the millions of asylum seekers who crossed the US border with Mexico since 2022, then scattered throughout the country.

…

In New York, gang members exploited the city’s migrant shelter system, running robbery crews, as well as trafficking drugs, guns and sex workers under the noses of private security guards. according to sources.

Tren de Aragua has become such a significant concern that leaked US Army documents estimate more than 5,000 of these gangsters, some of which are armed, are running amok nationwide.

Biden-Harris rolling out the red carpet to illegal aliens has created perfect conditions for trafficking of all sorts, from drugs to labor to prostitution.

Americans are learning very quickly that Democrats importing the third world (many of which are unvetted) into the first world has tremendous consequences…  

It may be time for folks to avoid these ‘sanctuary zones’.

Armed Venezuelan Prison Gang In Denver Highlights Map Of US Sanctuary Zones To Avoid Amid Migrant Crisis https://t.co/EzR9xqGDTp

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) September 3, 2024

We’ll leave you with a dire message from ‘Ernie’ the truck driver from Charleroi, Pennsylvania, a small blue-collar town, who spoke at a recent Trump rally and described the migrant invasion as “nation-killing.”

This trucker is from Charleroi, a small PA town flooded with Haitians by Kamala

His message at the Trump rally: pic.twitter.com/aXe8TwvPeB

— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) September 23, 2024

Do yourself a favor this holiday season: Avoid NYC and, in fact, boycott sanctuary towns. Spend your money elsewhere. 

SEE YOU ON WEDNESDAY

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING STEVEE QUAYLE

Disasters Increasing – Get Prepared – Steve Quayle

By Greg Hunter On October 15, 2024 In Market Analysis10 Comments

Disasters Increasing – Get Prepared – Steve Quayle

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Sponsored Post)

 Renowned radio host, filmmaker, book author and archeological dig expert Steve Quayle is warning that disasters of all types are increasing, and it’s not going to get better anytime soon.

Look at what happened with back-to-back hurricanes in Florida and the Southeast.  There was massive flooding, huge wind damage and millions without power and cell service.  There are 10,000 people still without power in the North Carolina mountains after massive flash flooding caused by Hurricane Helene.  People were abandoned by FEMA and the government. That storm struck the Florida coast in late September, and there is no telling when the lights will come back on.  This is not bad luck or an accident, and Quayle contends, “This is a scripted takedown, takeover and takeout of the United States of America.  The power grid is what has enabled us to live with such a blessedness and an abundance of everything. . . . You need to recognize the globalists, the Luciferians are absolutely plotting and planning the destruction of human beings in this country.  This is the genocidal destruction and the extinction of Americans.”

Quayle is a spokesman for Satellite Phone Store.  They are experts in backup power, satellite phone communication and security of RF/ballistic Faraday bags that will stop both electronic thieves and bullets.  Quayle says, “It is critical and no longer a luxury that you have to have what I call a life assurance plan.  Life assurance is taking the forethought and saying to yourself look at what happened to Florida.  That could be me.  If you live in an earthquake zone, it’s the same thing.”

Also, FBI Director Christopher Wray has testified to Congress many times that we should expect hacking and terrorism that could take down the power grid, communications, water systems and even the banks.

So, check out the backup power systems from Satellite Phone Store.  Watch the 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any power killing event.   You can contact them at BeReady123.com.  

Along with millions of power outages in the Southeast because of storm damage from Helene and Milton, there were just as many cell phones that could not function because cell towers were down or damaged.  Sat phones don’t need ground-based towers, and their signals travel into space.  Check out the options at Sat123.com.

Finally, there are new ways for criminals to break into your home and into your car to rob or hurt you.  Wireless key fobs and garage door openers are being hacked using technology that gives thieves access to your car or garage.  One such robbery recently happened in Phoenix when a man watched his truck being stolen out of his driveway using this technology to open and start his vehicle.  Darkbags.com have ways to stop thieves from gaining access to any of your electronic devices.

In closing, Quayle says, “With the open Southern border, this is like taxpayers hiring their own firing squads.”

There is much more in the 30-minute interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes one-on-one with Steve Quayle who talks about getting ready for increasing disasters on 10.15.24.

After the Interview:

Watch the 8-minute video to explain how easy it is to ride out any power killing event.  You can contact them at BeReady123.com or call 1-941-841-0844

For all Satellite communication go to Sat123.com or call 1-941-841-0844.

For stopping thieves and spying, there is a big selection of Faraday EscapeZone bags at Darkbags.com or call 1-941-213-8547.