GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $17.30 TO $2692.50

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.18 TO $31.59

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2691.80

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.70

Bitcoin morning price:$66,892 DOWN 925 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $66905 DOWN 52 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $0.50 TO $995.85

Palladium price; UP 16.20 TO $1042.20

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3714.44 UP 36.05 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,714.44 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 17 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2068.58 UP 10.37 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2068.58 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 17/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,485.94 UP 23.48 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.485….94 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 17 //.2024)

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EXCHANGE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,674.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/16/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 10/18/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 1
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 4
661 C JP MORGAN 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 1

---

TOTAL: 5 5

---

JPMorgan stopped 0/5

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 5 NOTICES FOR 500 OZ  or  0.01555 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,465 contracts for 1,246,500 Oz (38.771 tonnes)

FOR  OCT

SILVER NOTICES:10 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 50,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1313 for 6.565 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $17.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV.

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 473.483 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 403 CONTRACTS TO 142,301 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED with OUR GOOD GAIN OF $0.25 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1373 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE SMALLISH GAIN OF 25 CENTS  IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE.. //. WE HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE..  WE HAD A HUGE 970 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A GOOD 203 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE 1373 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A GOOD 203 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY A SMALLISH 25 CENTS AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 1373 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE 970 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ .195 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL 6.770 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 6.770 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//UGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  GOOD SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 203 CONTRACTS)/PLUS THAT STUPID ISSUANCE OF .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL REMOVED A HUMONGOUS 162 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 12 DAYS, total 7336 contracts:   OR 36.680 MILLION OZ  (611 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  36.680 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 36.680 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 403  CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.25 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 970 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF  5.355 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 40,000 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 6.770 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 1373 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A GOOD SIZED 203 CONTRACTS (USED FOR TODAY’S TRADING),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION, TRYING TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE.

/ ZERO SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT   (203) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.

WE HAD 10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6189 OI CONTRACTS  TO 547,421 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 8375 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (6189 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $13.60 IN PRICE /WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP AND TO BOOT ANOTHER OF THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE OF 239 CONTRACTS FOR 23900 OZ OR .7433 TONNES

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  38.998 TONNES+0.7433 EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 59.9153 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $13.60 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A STRONG SIZED GAIN OF 9220 OI CONTRACTS (28.678 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON FRIDAY, AND TUESDAY WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE HUGE QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING DAILY.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 3031 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 555,796

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9220 CONTRACTS  WITH 6189 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 3031 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 9220 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A SMALL SIZED 551 CONTRACTS, WE HAD MINOR LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (3031 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 14,564 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 9220 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 0.7433 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY.

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 38.998 TONNES. +0.7433 EX FOR RISK TODAY + 20.174 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 59.9153 TONNES

 / 3) MINOR T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///SMALL T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 551 T.A.S.CONTRACTS + ANOTHER .7433 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 41,006 CONTRACTS OF 4,100,600 OZ OR 127.545 TONNES IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3417 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 12 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  127.45 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  127.45 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 3.58% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 127.45 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 403 CONTRACTS OI  TO 142,301 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 970 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 970 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 970 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 565   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 970 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1373 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 6.865 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.25 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.56 PTS OR 1.05%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 207,75 PTS OR 1.02%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 269.11 PTS OR 0.67%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.79%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1215 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1365// Oil DOWN TO 70.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6189 CONTRACTS TO 547,421 WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.60 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (3031). AND WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THIS: THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS FIRSTLY ON LAST TUESDAY, OCT 2, WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! WELL,TODAY WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AT 239 NOTICES OR 23,900 OZ (.7433 TONNES). THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS WEEK

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 22 -24 2024/. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR GOLD AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! THIS WEEK HAS BEEN A STELLAR WEEK FOR GOLD.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION WITH WEDNESDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE BUT AGAIN AS WITH THURSDAY’S THROUGH WEDNESDAY’S TRADING, ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 3031 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  3031 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 3031 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 9220 CONTRACTS IN THAT 3031 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6189 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS VERY STRONG GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR  GAIN IN PRICE OF $13.60 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SMALL SIZED 551 CONTRACTS,  WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND RAIDS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   OCT (59.9153 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 38.986 TONNES +0.7433 EX FOR RISK TODAY + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =59.9153 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY  $13.60/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL.IN STOPPING GOLD’S ADVANCE. CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 54.727 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 400 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS….0.7433 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY + 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/OCT 2

//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 38.998 TONNES.+0.7433 TONNES EX FOR RISK TODAY + 20.174 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK OCT 2

NEW STANDING FOR OCT 38.998 TONNES +0.7433 + 20.174 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK= 59.9153 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $13.60

WE HAD 756 CONTRACTS REMOVED  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 17,595 CONTRACTS OR 1,759,500 OZ (54.727 TONNES)

confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 166,517 contracts poor

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

OCT 17  OCT  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	52,797.438 OZ Brinks enhanced real gold leaving           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	32.15 oz one kilobar Brinks
No of oz served (contracts) today	5 notice(s) 500 OZ 0.01555 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	73 contracts    7300 OZ 0.2270 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,465 notices 1,246,600oz 38.775 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits:0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 1 customer deposits

i) Into Brinks: 32.151 oz

total deposits 32.151 oz one kilobar

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of Brinks enhanced: 52,797.438 oz

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 52,797.438 oz

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 788 contracts having LOST 27 contracts

We had 31 contracts filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 4 contracts on our two exchanges or 4 CONTRACTS underwent a 400 oz queue jump. This is central bank action grabbing all the physical they can. On top of this we had another of those stupid delivery notices for exchange for risk of 239 contracts for 23900 oz or .7433 tonnes of gold!

NOVEMBER LOST 57 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1485

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 1595 CONTRACTS TO 441,193

We had 5 contracts filed for today representing 500 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 3 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 5 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,465 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT(78 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (5 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,253,800 OZ  OR 38.993 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID .7433 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK TODAY PLUS 20.174 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON OCT 2, NEW TOTAL = 59.9153 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (12,465 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT  (78 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (5 x 100 oz which equals  1,253,800 oz (38.993 TONNES) +7433 EX. FOR RISK TODAY + 20.174 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY OCT 2 = 59.9153 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 59.9153 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,695,138.428  oz 52.725 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  16,992,848.235 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,826,170.090/// 243,42tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,166,678,145OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,132,032 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 190.700tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 17 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE OCT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,419,635..031 oz Brinks CNT .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	593,065.900 oz ASAHI
No of oz served today (contracts)	10CONTRACT(S)    (50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	2 contracts  (10,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1313Contracts  (6.565 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 customer deposits

i) Into ASAHI: 593,065.900 oz

total customer deposits 593,065.900 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) out of Brinks 1,309,434.600 oz

ii) Out of CNT 210,200.431 oz

total withdrawal 1,419,635.031 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.996million oz/305.299million  or 44.23%

adjustment 1

dealer to customer/Asahi: 605,057.67 oz

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.137MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 305.299million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 12 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 8 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 0 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 8 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP AND TO BOOT WE HAD ANOTHER CRAZY 39 CONTRACT ISSUANCE FOR EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THAT TOTALS 195,000 OZ.

NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 7 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 774

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 27 CONTRACTS UP TO 117,674 CONTRACTS

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for 50,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 53,667 poor

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1313x 5,000 oz = 6.565 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (12) and the number of notices served upon today (10)x (5000 oz) to which we add 195,000 oz of exchange for risk equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month:  1313 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(12) number of notices served upon today minus (10)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month + .195 million oz ex. for risk equates to 6.770 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 6.770 million oz.

the comex must be now chaotic as we received notice of exchange for risk for both gold and silver.

There are 69.742 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

 OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

 OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 884.59 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

OCT 17  WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 16  WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15  WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11  WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9  WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

 OCT 7  WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

 OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 473.483 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

Ronan Manly: A silent gold revolution is behind the price breakout

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-10-16 21:23 Section: Daily Dispatches

9:23p ET Wednesday, October 16, 2024

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Bullion Star gold researcher Ronan Manly returns tonight with a broad overview of recent developments in gold, noting that the monetary metal’s rise this year has been extraordinary and arguing that central banks really don’t want their buying to rock the market and so coordinate much of their trading confidentially through the Bank of England and the Bank for International Settlements.

Manly’s analysis is headlined “A Silent Gold Revolution: The New Gold Price Breakout” and it’s posted at Bullion Star here:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blogs/ronan-manly/a-silent-gold-revolution-the-new-gold-price-breakout/

CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org

* * *

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 193 ANDREW MAGUIRE

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:ORANG JUICE

.

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.56 PTS OR 1.05%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 207,75 PTS OR 1.02%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 269.11 PTS OR 0.67%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.79%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1215 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1365// Oil DOWN TO 70.47 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED MOSTLY GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1215

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1365

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 33.56 PTS OR 1.05%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 207,75 PTS OR 1.02%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 269.11 POINTS OR 0.69%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  MOSTLY GREEN

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  103.31 EURO RISES TO 1.0862 UP 4 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.960 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 149.55…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.1935 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.399 SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.903

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.060

3j Gold at $2680.60 /Silver at: 31.69  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $34.40//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 5/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.15

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 149.55  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.960% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8636 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9381  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.033 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.320 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  3.951 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.15…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.110 DOWN 0 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.136 UP 1 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.911 UP 1 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Jump After Blowout TSMC Earnings And Ahead Of ECB Rate Cut

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 08:13 AM

Futures are higher and on the verge of another all time high with Tech leading: NVDA is up +2.5% pre-market as TSMC reported strong upside on margin, along with comments on “extremely robust AI related demand”. As of 8:00am, S&P futures rose 0.4% to 5,910, just shy of the 5,918 all time high; Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.9%, led by an advance in chip stocks after TSMC posted a better-than-projected 54% rise in quarterly earnings. That helped reverse the impact of ASML Holding NV’s lowered 2025 guidance, which halted a rally that had pushed US-traded shares to a three-month high. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index gained 0.7% ahead of the ECB’s second consecutive rate cut. China stocks extended their post-euphoria slump and erased gains on disappointment over the outcome of a joint ministry press briefing about the property market which again lacked critical details on the stimulus package. Iron ore tumbled to a three-week low ahead of data on Friday which is expected to show the economy grew at its weakest pace in six quarters. Bond yields are higher and USD is lower; 10-year yields are 2bp higher to 4.03%. Commodities are mixed: Oil and base metals are higher, while precious metals are lower.

In premarket trading, chip giant Taiwan Semiconductor jumped 8.5% after it gave a strong forecast and touted the sustainability of AI hardware demand as strong sales of Nvidia AI chips offset a sagging mobile industry. Margins were seen as a highlight, and the report helped to ease recent concerns about the chip space that followed ASML’s results. The company also raised its target for 2024 revenue growth. US chip were broadly higher on the report. Expedia shares jumped 6.7% after the Financial Times reported that Uber Technologies explored a possible bid for the online travel-booking company. Analysts were positive about a deal noting that Dara Khosrowshahi led Expedia for 12 years before taking the helm at Uber in 2017. CSX shares dropped 3.9% after the freight-transportation company reported third-quarter earnings per share and revenue that missed consensus estimates. Analysts flagged the impact of hurricane activity on the results. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

• Alcoa (AA) rises 5.9% premarket after the aluminum producer reported better-than-expected adjusted Ebitda for the third quarter. Results were aided by surging alumina prices, analysts said.
• Elevance (EXPE) shares tumble 13% after the health insurer slashed its forecast for adjusted full-year EPS as the firm reported third-quarter profits that fell short of expectations. The company also reported higher-than-expected medical expenses for the quarter.
• Fortinet Inc. (FTNT) shares fall 3.7% after Mizuho Securities downgraded the security software company to underperform from neutral.
• Lithium Americas (LAC) shares jump 7.9% in New York after the miner was upgraded to outperform from sector perform at National Bank Financial following the announcement of a joint venture with General Motors.
• Sealed Air (SEE) shares advance 3.1% after Raymond James upgraded the packaging company to strong buy from market perform.
• SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG) shares fall 3.3% after Guggenheim analyst Joseph Osha downgrades the solar company to sell from neutral.
• Topgolf Callaway Brands (MODG) shares fall 2.2% after B. Riley Securities downgraded the golf company to neutral from buy. Analyst Eric Wold expects weak trends at its namesake chain of high-tech driving ranges will weigh on the stock until the firm’s planned separation, anticipated in the second half of 2025.

“TSMC earnings were clearly a positive and that has allayed some of the worries around the chip sector after that dismal report from ASML,” said Michael Brown, strategist at Pepperstone Group Ltd. “The outlook for risk remains very positive particularly as central banks across both developed markets continue to remove policy restriction at a pretty rapid pace.”

The European Central Bank’s policy decision is due later, where it’s expected to cut its benchmark rate by another quarter-point to 3.25% (our preview is here). Shortly after, the market will turn its attention to US retail sales and jobless figures for further evidence that the US consumer and labor market remain healthy, as investors seek confirmation of soft-landing bets. Traders also await results from tech bellwether Netflix which is set to report its third-quarter earnings after the close amid some concern its breakneck rally may be running out of steam.

In Europe, major markets are higher (Stoxx 600 +0.3%, UKX +0.2%, DAX +0.8%) ahead of the ECB’s second consecutive rate cut with banks leading gains after Nordea increased its outlook for the full year and outlined a new program of share buybacks, while mining and real estate stocks lagged. France and Italy markets outperformed while and Spain lagged. Thematically, Macro Recovery, French Exporters and Italian Banks are among the top outperformers, while Momentum sLong are lagging. ECB is expected to announce the second 25bp rate cut today. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Nordea gains as much as 6.1%, after the Finnish lender announced a fresh €250 million buyback in its third-quarter report, outshining an otherwise in-line report.
• ABB shares rise as much as 2.4% after the company raised its margin guidance, boosted by performance of its electrification unit, which saw strong demand from data centers and utilities, outweighing weakness in its robotics and automation business
• Rentokil shares rise as much as 10%, the most since July, after the pest controller reported North America revenue for the third quarter that beat estimates
• Schindler gains as much as 3.4%, reaching the highest since Nov. 2021, after reporting results that are seen as strong overall by analysts, with improving margins a key positive
• Entain shares gain as much as 4.2% after the gambling group said it now expects full-year adjusted Ebitda to be toward the top end of the forecast range. Additionally, it reported third-quarter results that Citi and Morgan Stanley described as strong
• EQT gains as much as 1.7% after the Swedish asset manager reported robust investment performance, even as exit activity and fundraising remain muted in a challenging environment
• Deliveroo shares rise as much as 4.7% after the food delivery firm reported a 2% order increase in home market UK and Ireland during 3Q, outperforming key rival Just Eat Takeaway
• Nokia shares fall as much as 4.8% after the 5G gear maker trimmed full-year operating profit expectations, saying a recovery in sales is happening slower than expected
• Mondi shares sink as much as 9.5%, hitting their lowest level since 2016, after the paper and packaging company’s quarterly earnings came in way below estimates
• Man Group shares decline as much as 3.6% after the hedge fund firm reported net outflows in the latest quarter and lower assets under management. Citi expects mild consensus downgrades

Earlier in the session, Asian equities fell, on pace for its longest stretch of losses in nearly five months, as a rally in Chinese stocks faltered. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%. Tencent, Keyence and Tokyo Electron contributed the most to the index’s fourth-straight day of decline. Shares also fell in Japan and India, while they rose in Taiwan and Australia. Chinese stocks in mainland slid into correction territory, while those in Hong Kong fell more than 1%, as investors were underwhelmed by the property sector support measures announced at a government briefing. The country pledged to nearly double the loan quota for unfinished residential projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion), which fell short of market expectations. A Bloomberg Intelligence gauge of Chinese developer stocks tumbled more than 12%.

In rates, treasuries are slightly cheaper across the curve in a mild bear-steepening move, similar to price action in European rates ahead of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy decision at 8:15am New York time. It’s expected to cut the deposit rate for a third time this cycle, to 3.25%, and President Christine Lagarde holds a presser thirty minutes later. US yields are higher by less than 2bp with long-end leading losses, leaving 2s10s and 5s30s spreads steeper by less than 1bp. 10-year around 4.03% is up 1.8bp from Wednesday’s close, keeping pace with bunds while gilts outperform by ~1bp. Bunds fall ahead of the European Central Bank decision although did trim losses after euro-area inflation was revised lower. German 10-year yields rise 3bps to 2.21%. US session has packed economic data slate including jobless claims and retail sales.

In FX,  the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index halted gains as markets awaited key data including jobless claims and remarks by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee. The euro extended losses ahead of the European Central Bank policy meeting. The Aussie dollar is the strongest of the G-10 currencies, rising 0.2% against the greenback after stronger-than-expected jobs data.

In commodities basic resources underperform after Chinese stocks slid into a correction following another underwhelming policy briefing. Iron ore tumbled to a three-week low following China’s latest moves to shore up the property market, underscoring skepticism they will be enough to boost construction activity and steel demand. Oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.3% to $70.60 a barrel after four days of declines, as traders weighed potential risks to production in the Middle East. Spot gold rises $4 having earlier hit a record high, as the increasingly tight presidential race drives demand for haven assets.

Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes September retail sales, October Philadelphia Fed business outlook and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), September industrial production (9:15am), August business inventories, October NAHB housing market index (10am) and August TIC flows (4pm). Fed’s Goolsbee is scheduled to speak at 11am

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,905.75
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.4% to 521.64
• MXAP down 0.3% to 189.29
• MXAPJ down 0.4% to 601.88
• Nikkei down 0.7% to 38,911.19
• Topix down 0.1% to 2,687.83
• Hang Seng Index down 1.0% to 20,079.10
• Shanghai Composite down 1.0% to 3,169.38
• Sensex down 0.6% to 80,987.77
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 8,355.92
• Kospi little changed at 2,609.30
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.22%
• Euro little changed at $1.0854
• Brent Futures up 0.4% to $74.48/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,683.40
• US Dollar Index little changed at 103.61

Top Overnight News

• China’s policymakers rolled out fresh stimulus aimed at boosting the country’s sluggish property sector, though the measures fell short of hopes for more specific liquidity support. Authorities plan to fast-track credit for struggling property developers, and aim to renovate 1 million apartments in so-called urban shantytowns, a strategy used during the prior real-estate slump, the housing ministry and other policymakers said. WSJ
• China’s show of force around Taiwan in a day of massive military exercises has fueled alarm in Taipei, which wants other democracies to push back harder against Beijing. FT
• Japan reported a modest shortfall in Sept trade numbers, with exports -1.7% Y/Y (vs. the Street +0.9%) and imports +2.1% (vs. the Street +2.8%). RTRS
• Trump’s tariff plan for a second term would be far broader than what he did before and threatens to “radically” reshape global trade (tariffs could rise to the highest level since the 1930s). WSJ
• Euro-area inflation slowed more last month than initially reported, cementing the case for a second consecutive 25-bp cut at today’s ECB meeting and adding to the case for another in December. The euro weakened. BBG
• The EU warned X that it may calculate fines against the social-media platform by including revenue from Elon Musk’s other businesses, including SpaceX and Neuralink, people familiar said. The approach would significantly increase the potential penalties for violating content moderation rules. BBG
• US gasoline inventories slumped again, dropping by 5.9 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would make total holdings the lowest in almost two years if confirmed by the EIA today. BBG
• TSMC – beat across the board saying capex would be up next year (that is in street). Most positive the comments of 2nm where they are actually seeing more demand from 2nm than they had seen for N3. GS GBM
• Elevance reported a shortfall on Q3 adjusted EPS at 8.37 (vs. the Street 9.66), and the full-year EPS guide is cut to ~$33 (down from the prior “at least $37.20” outlook). The earnings miss in Q2 was driven by a large shortfall on the MCR, which spiked 270bp to 89.5% (this is about 200bp worse than anticipated). This ELV report is the second underwhelming managed care release of the week (after UNH) and follows the recent HUM 2026 CMS blowup. RTRS
• Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver consecutive 25bps cuts from November 2024 through June 2025 to a terminal rate range of 3.25%-3.50%, while it expects the ECB to deliver a 25bps cut at the upcoming meeting and then sequential 25bps of cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% in June 2025.
• BofA Institute Total Card Spending (w/e 12th Oct) +0.8% Y/Y (vs -0.9% average in Sep)

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green following the rebound of equity markets stateside but with gains capped amid quiet macro catalysts and as China’s property sector briefing failed to rally local developers. ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high led by strength in real estate, industrials and financials, while strong jobs data added to the upbeat mood but further lowered the odds of a rate cut this year. Nikkei 225 underperformed following disappointing trade data including a surprise contraction in exports. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp advanced at the open with the help of tech strength and consumer-related stocks, although the mainland index briefly wiped out all of its gains amid weakness in property stocks as the press briefing by several Chinese government agencies and the PBoC failed to inspire a turnaround in the sector.

Top Asian News

• Japan Bankers Association Chair said “Personally, I think the Japanese economy is really at a tipping point with wage increases”
• China’s Housing Minister vowed to stabilise the property market from declining further in the press briefing and said the government has announced a raft of policies on housing, while he announced they will add 1mln village urbanisation projects, as well as expand the white list of projects and bank lending to CNY 4tln. Furthermore, they will adopt monetisation measures for urbanisation projects and cities will make their own decisions regarding property restrictions based on the economic situation and local property market conditions.
• PBoC Deputy Governor said regarding existing mortgage rate cuts that most stock of existing mortgage loans interest rates will be adjusted on October 25th and real estate development loans will be extended until end-2026, while interest rates on existing mortgages are expected to fall by an average 50bps, benefitting 50mln households and 150mln residents.
• China’s Assistant Finance Minister said regarding housing purchases that the use of special loans is to support the local government in accordance with the actual situation and they will further broaden local funding sources, while he said they will reduce the burden on developers and home buyers regarding property taxes.
• China NFRA Deputy Director said all commercial housing loans are to be included in the ‘whitelist’ and management of real estate projects are to be further standardised, while financing will be made more convenient and quicker. The official added that commercial banks should make full use of loans and they should optimise the allocation of loans and method of appropriation.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) began the session modestly firmer and gradually edged to session highs as the morning progressed before coming off best levels. Sentiment across European futures improved following the release of TSMC’s earnings, with tech opening in the green but then faltering. European sectors hold a slight positive bias; Banks take the top spot, lifted by post-earning strength in Nordea Bank (+3.5%). The Basic Resources sector is found towards the bottom of the pile, hampered by broader weakness in the base metals complex. US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.2%) are modestly firmer across the board, ahead of key US data which includes US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. Earnings include: Nestle (revenue & guidance soft), Nokia (missed, maintained outlook), Pernod Ricard (Miss, China sales -26%). EU is weighing using Elon Musk’s empire revenue as a potential fine for X, according to Bloomberg sources; Tesla (TSLA) would be exempt as it is a publicly-traded company.

Top European News

• BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority is to signal more rules can be relaxed to support growth, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves will use her Budget to increase capital gains tax on the sale of shares and other assets but will not change the rate for second homes, according to The Times. It was also reported that Reeves’s Budget is set to be the largest tax raiser in history in which she may look to increase fuel duty and faces backlash from Cabinet colleagues, according to The Telegraph.

FX

• USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers, however, that could change later in the session amid a slew of US data points with retail sales being the standout highlight. To the upside for DXY, the 200DMA is at 103.77.
• EUR is trivially lower vs. the USD in the run-up to today’s ECB rate decision which is widely expected to see a 25bps reduction in the deposit rate. To the upside, Wednesday’s high lies at 1.0901. On the downside, there is clean air until 1.0800.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD following yesterday’s CPI-induced sell-off which saw Cable decline from a 1.3077 high to an overnight trough at 1.2974. However, if the downside resumes, the focus will be on a test of the 100DMA at 1.2954.
• JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD, however, USD/JPY remains unwilling to crack 150.00 to the upside after printing a high at 149.98 on Monday.
• Diverging fortunes for the antipodes with AUD boosted by strong jobs data overnight which has further heightened expectations that the RBA will delay commencing its rate-cutting cycle until next year. NZD is flat vs. the USD in quiet newsflow.

Fixed Income

• Bunds are on the back foot, holding around a 133.74 trough ahead of resistance at 133.68 from Wednesday before 133.40-42 before 133.00 itself. The Spanish auction was strong but was unable to stop the selling pressure.
• USTs are modestly lower and directionally in-fitting with peers but with magnitudes once again smaller; the docket today holds US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. At a 112-11 base, just below Wednesday’s 112-13 low. For Europe, focus on the ECB ahead of which Final EZ HICP was revised down.
• Gilts are the marginal laggard after Wednesday’s inflation-driven upside. Gilts gapped lower by 23 ticks and have since slipped by another 20 ticks to a 97.55 base.
• Spain sells EUR 5.115bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.10% 2031, 3.45% 2034, 2.70% 2048 Bonos
• France sells EUR 12bln vs EUR 10-12bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2029, and 2.75% 2030 OAT

Commodities

• Crude oil is choppy and trading on either side of the unchanged mark amid light catalysts thus far and following four back-to-back closes in the red. Brent Dec trades in a 73.89-74.92/bbl parameter.
• A mixed session for precious metals with spot palladium flat, silver subdued, and gold eking mild gains at the time of writing. Spot gold incrementally printed fresh record highs of USD 2,685.84/oz in today’s session.
• Base metals are mostly lower after being initially underpinned overnight alongside the mostly constructive risk tone in Asia but later faltered as participants were underwhelmed by Beijing’s latest press briefing on the property sector.
• Peru copper output rose 10.7% Y/Y in August to 246.6k tons.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• German naval ship reportedly brought down an unmanned flying object in an incident off the coast of Lebanon early Thursday, according to a German Defence Ministry spokesman.
• Israeli source cited by ABC said PM Netanyahu agreed to a set of targets to be hit inside of Iran without specifying a timeline for the attack, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he held an emergency discussion on increasing aid to Gaza, according to Reuters citing three Israeli officials.
• US President Biden’s envoy told aid groups that Israel is too close an ally for the US to suspend arms, according to POLITICO. It was separately reported that US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart on Wednesday and reinforced the importance of taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese armed forces, according to the Pentagon.
• Yemen’s Houthi Al Masirah TV reported US-British air strikes which targeted the capital of Sanaa and the city of Saada, while US Defence Secretary Austin said US forces targeted several Houthi underground facilities housing various weapons components in Yemen.
• Explosions were heard amid reported Israeli aggression targeting Syria’s Latakia, according to Syrian state media.

Geopolitics: Other

• China’s Coast Guard said a Japanese fishing boat illegally entered the territorial waters of Diaoyu Island and the Chinese Coast Guard drove away Japanese vessels on October 15th-16th in accordance with the law, according to state media.
• North Korea said roads and railways with South Korea were completely cut off under its constitution that defines the South as a hostile state, while it will continue to take measures to permanently fortify the border with South Korea, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Sept. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.1%
  • Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.1%, prior 0.1%
  • Sept. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
  • Sept. Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas, est. 0.3%, prior 0.2%
• 08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 258,000, prior 258,000
  • Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.86m
• 08:30: Oct. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 3.0, prior 1.7
• 09:15: Sept. Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.2%, prior 0.8%
  • Sept. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.1%, prior 0.9%
  • Sept. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.8%, prior 78.0%
• 10:00: Aug. Business Inventories, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
• 10:00: Oct. NAHB Housing Market Index, est. 42, prior 41
• 16:00: Aug. Total Net TIC Flows, prior $156.5b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Markets put in a solid performance yesterday, with investors remaining upbeat as they digested several earnings results and another modest decline in oil prices. This backdrop proved very supportive for risk assets, meaning that the S&P 500 (+0.47%) advanced to its second-highest ever closing level, whilst US IG spreads remained at their tightest since June 2021. Investors even grew more relaxed about inflation thanks to the decline in commodity prices and a downside surprise in the UK CPI release, which helped sovereign bonds to rally on both sides of the Atlantic. So it was a strong day overall, even as a few concerns remain in the background, not least around geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

When it comes to the next 24 hours, central banks will be back in the spotlight today, as the ECB is widely expected to deliver another 25bp rate cut, taking their deposit rate down to 3.25%. Bear in mind that as recently as mid-September, markets were expecting that the ECB would probably stay on hold at this meeting, having only done quarterly cuts so far in June and September. But since then, we’ve had a weak batch of data, with the Euro Area composite PMI in contractionary territory for the first time in 7 months, whilst inflation has also continued to fall. In fact, Euro Area headline inflation was down to +1.8% in September, which is the first time it’s been beneath the ECB’s 2% target in over three years. So the backdrop has turned a lot more dovish in recent weeks.

DB’s economists also expect the ECB to cut by 25bps today, and they write that this would signal a pivot towards faster easing, as it would be the first back-to-back cut of the cycle. But given the high level of macro uncertainty, they don’t expect the ECB to move away from the ‘data dependent, meeting by meeting’ approach to policy. For more info, see their full preview here.

Ahead of the ECB’s decision, sovereign bonds rallied on both sides of the Atlantic. In part, that was because of the UK CPI print for September, which came in beneath expectations and helped to reassure investors about inflationary pressures, not least after Canada’s inflation data also surprised on the downside on Tuesday. The release showed UK headline inflation was down to +1.7% (vs. +1.9% expected), which is its lowest since April 2021. And even though core inflation was stronger at +3.2% (vs. +3.4% expected), that was also its weakest in three years.

That downside surprise in UK inflation led investors to dial up their expectations for Bank of England rate cuts. Indeed, overnight index swaps for the June 2025 meeting were pricing in 114bps of rate cuts by the close, up +9.8ps on the previous day. That pattern was echoed more broadly as well, with expectations for ECB cuts by June up +4.1bps on the day to 137bps. And over in the US, there were now 121bps cuts priced by June, up +2.8bps on the day. So that offered fresh momentum to sovereign bonds, which was also supported by the latest declines in commodity prices. So by the close, it meant that yields on 10yr gilts (-9.7bps) had seen a sharp decline, whilst those on 10yr bunds (-3.8bps), OATs (-3.4bps) and BTPs (-5.2bps) all moved lower as well.

Over in the US, the decline in yields was smaller, with those on 10yr Treasuries down -2.0bps to 4.01%. But in the meantime, we did get a fresh indication that the recent pickup in US yields has been filtering through to mortgages, with data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showing that the 30yr fixed rate was up to 6.52% in the week ending October 11, having been at 6.14% just a couple of weeks earlier. Moreover, that decline yesterday has since pulled back overnight, with the 10yr Treasury yield up +1.8bps this morning again to 4.03%.

When it came to equities, there were solid gains in the US which saw the S&P 500 rise +0.47%, leaving it less than -0.3% beneath its record high from Monday. The key theme was a rotation towards small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 (+1.64%) reaching its highest level since November 2021. A few other segments also did very well, with the KBW Bank Index (+1.71%) reaching its highest level since March 2022, and Morgan Stanley (+6.50%) was the strongest performer in the index after its earnings release. On the other hand, the megacap tech stocks underperformed, with the Magnificent 7 (+0.01%) little changed despite a +3.13% gain for Nvidia, amidst losses for Meta (-1.62%), Apple (-0.89%) and Microsoft (-0.63%).

In terms of the geopolitical situation, investors are still following the Middle East closely, including what form any retaliation from Israel might take against Iran. But in the meantime, oil prices continued to fall back modestly yesterday, with Brent crude (-0.04%) losing ground for a fourth consecutive day to end the session at $74.22/bbl.

Overnight in Asia, there’s been a mixed performance across the major equity indices, and US equity futures are also pointing lower this morning, with those on the S&P 500 down -0.23%. Initially, Chinese equities had posted strong gains overnight, with the CSI 300 up +1.32% at its intraday peak, but it’s since pared those back to only be up +0.08% at time of writing. That followed the news that China would almost double its loan quota for so-called “white-list” property projects, up to 4 trillion yuan, but this fell short of some expectations, and the CSI 300 Real Estate Index is down -4.95% this morning.

Elsewhere in the region, Australian government bond yields have risen after the country’s employment report for September was stronger than expected. It showed the unemployment rate falling to 4.1% (vs. 4.2% expected), while employment was up by +64.1k (vs. +25.0k expected), coming in above every economist’s estimate on Bloomberg. That’s seen investors dial back the likelihood of a near-term rate cut by the RBA, with the probability of a rate cut by the December meeting down to 36% overnight, from 49% at yesterday’s close.

Finally in Japan, the Nikkei has fallen by -0.65% this morning, which follows data showing that Japan’s exports were down -1.7% year-on-year in September. That’s the biggest decline since February 2021, and it fell short of estimates for a +0.9% gain.

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the ECB’s policy decision, along with President Lagarde’s subsequent press conference. We’ll also hear from the Fed’s Goolsbee. Data releases from the US include retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilisation for September, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the NAHB’s housing market index for October. Finally, earnings releases include Netflix.

2B) European report

Sentiment holds an upward bias ahead of US Retail Sales, Jobless Claims, and the ECB – Newsquawk US Market Open

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 05:40 AM

• European bourses trade mostly firmer but to varying degrees, with tech sentiment briefly lifted after strong TSMC results; US futures also gain.
• The dollar is flat, AUD benefits from the stronger-than-expected jobs data, whilst the Loonie underperforms.
• Bonds are on the backfoot and awaiting today’s key risk events which include US Retail Sales and the ECB Policy Announcement.
• Crude oil is choppy and trading on either side of the unchanged mark, XAU is modestly firmer whilst base metals are mostly lower.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, ECB President Lagarde & Fed’s Goolsbee. Earnings from Elevance Health, Truist Financial, M&T Bank, KeyCorp, Travelers, Blackstone, Netflix, EssilorLuxottica.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.4%) began the session modestly firmer and gradually edged to session highs as the morning progressed before coming off best levels. Sentiment across European futures improved following the release of TSMC’s earnings, with tech opening in the green but then faltering.
• European sectors hold a slight positive bias; Banks take the top spot, lifted by post-earning strength in Nordea Bank (+3.5%). The Basic Resources sector is found towards the bottom of the pile, hampered by broader weakness in the base metals complex.
• US Equity Futures (ES +0.3%, NQ +0.6%, RTY +0.2%) are modestly firmer across the board, ahead of key US data which includes US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. NVIDIA (NVDA) +2% pre-market after TSMC’s earnings.
• TSMC (2330 TW) Q3 (TWD): Net 325.3bln (exp. 299.3bln), Gross Margin 57.8% (exp. 54.8%), Capex 6.4bln (prev. 6.36bln Q/Q), EPS 12.54 (exp. 11.41). Q4 Guidance (USD): Revenue 26.1-26.9bln (exp. 24.2bln), Gross Margin 57-59% (exp. 54.7%), Operating Margin 46.5-48.5% (exp. 44.3%)
• Earnings include: Nestle (revenue & guidance soft), Nokia (missed, maintained outlook), Pernod Ricard (Miss, China sales -26%).
• EU is weighing using Elon Musk’s empire revenue as a potential fine for X, according to Bloomberg sources; Tesla (TSLA) would be exempt as it is a publicly-traded company.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is showing a mixed performance vs. peers, however, that could change later in the session amid a slew of US data points with retail sales being the standout highlight. To the upside for DXY, the 200DMA is at 103.77.
• EUR is trivially lower vs. the USD in the run-up to today’s ECB rate decision which is widely expected to see a 25bps reduction in the deposit rate. To the upside, Wednesday’s high lies at 1.0901. On the downside, there is clean air until 1.0800.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD following yesterday’s CPI-induced sell-off which saw Cable decline from a 1.3077 high to an overnight trough at 1.2974. However, if the downside resumes, the focus will be on a test of the 100DMA at 1.2954.
• JPY is a touch softer vs. the USD, however, USD/JPY remains unwilling to crack 150.00 to the upside after printing a high at 149.98 on Monday.
• Diverging fortunes for the antipodes with AUD boosted by strong jobs data overnight which has further heightened expectations that the RBA will delay commencing its rate-cutting cycle until next year. NZD is flat vs. the USD in quiet newsflow.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• Bunds are on the back foot, holding around a 133.74 trough ahead of resistance at 133.68 from Wednesday before 133.40-42 before 133.00 itself. The Spanish auction was strong but was unable to stop the selling pressure.
• USTs are modestly lower and directionally in-fitting with peers but with magnitudes once again smaller; the docket today holds US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Retail Sales and Industrial Production. At a 112-11 base, just below Wednesday’s 112-13 low. For Europe, focus on the ECB ahead of which Final EZ HICP was revised down.
• Gilts are the marginal laggard after Wednesday’s inflation-driven upside. Gilts gapped lower by 23 ticks and have since slipped by another 20 ticks to a 97.55 base.
• Spain sells EUR 5.115bln vs exp. EUR 4.5-5.5bln 3.10% 2031, 3.45% 2034, 2.70% 2048 Bonos
• France sells EUR 12bln vs EUR 10-12bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2029, and 2.75% 2030 OAT
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude oil is choppy and trading on either side of the unchanged mark amid light catalysts thus far and following four back-to-back closes in the red. Brent Dec trades in a 73.89-74.92/bbl parameter.
• A mixed session for precious metals with spot palladium flat, silver subdued, and gold eking mild gains at the time of writing. Spot gold incrementally printed fresh record highs of USD 2,685.84/oz in today’s session.
• Base metals are mostly lower after being initially underpinned overnight alongside the mostly constructive risk tone in Asia but later faltered as participants were underwhelmed by Beijing’s latest press briefing on the property sector.
• Peru copper output rose 10.7% Y/Y in August to 246.6k tons.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• EU HICP Final YY (Sep) 1.7% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.8%); HICP Final MM (Sep) -0.1% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); HICP-X F&E Final YY (Sep) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%); HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY (Sep) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%); HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%); HICP-X Tobacco YY (Sep) 1.6% (Prev. 2.0%); HICP-X Tobacco MM (Sep) -0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority is to signal more rules can be relaxed to support growth, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves will use her Budget to increase capital gains tax on the sale of shares and other assets but will not change the rate for second homes, according to The Times. It was also reported that Reeves’s Budget is set to be the largest tax raiser in history in which she may look to increase fuel duty and faces backlash from Cabinet colleagues, according to The Telegraph.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver consecutive 25bps cuts from November 2024 through June 2025 to a terminal rate range of 3.25%-3.50%, while it expects the ECB to deliver a 25bps cut at the upcoming meeting and then sequential 25bps of cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% in June 2025.
• BofA Institute Total Card Spending (w/e 12th Oct) +0.8% Y/Y (vs -0.9% average in Sep)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• German naval ship reportedly brought down an unmanned flying object in an incident off the coast of Lebanon early Thursday, according to a German Defence Ministry spokesman.
• Israeli source cited by ABC said PM Netanyahu agreed to a set of targets to be hit inside of Iran without specifying a timeline for the attack, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he held an emergency discussion on increasing aid to Gaza, according to Reuters citing three Israeli officials.
• US President Biden’s envoy told aid groups that Israel is too close an ally for the US to suspend arms, according to POLITICO. It was separately reported that US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart on Wednesday and reinforced the importance of taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese armed forces, according to the Pentagon.
• Yemen’s Houthi Al Masirah TV reported US-British air strikes which targeted the capital of Sanaa and the city of Saada, while US Defence Secretary Austin said US forces targeted several Houthi underground facilities housing various weapons components in Yemen.
• Explosions were heard amid reported Israeli aggression targeting Syria’s Latakia, according to Syrian state media.

OTHER

• China’s Coast Guard said a Japanese fishing boat illegally entered the territorial waters of Diaoyu Island and the Chinese Coast Guard drove away Japanese vessels on October 15th-16th in accordance with the law, according to state media.
• North Korea said roads and railways with South Korea were completely cut off under its constitution that defines the South as a hostile state, while it will continue to take measures to permanently fortify the border with South Korea, according to KCNA.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is slightly lower and dipped below USD 67.5k, whilst Ethereum manages to remain afloat.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were mostly in the green following the rebound of equity markets stateside but with gains capped amid quiet macro catalysts and as China’s property sector briefing failed to rally local developers.
• ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high led by strength in real estate, industrials and financials, while strong jobs data added to the upbeat mood but further lowered the odds of a rate cut this year.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed following disappointing trade data including a surprise contraction in exports.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp advanced at the open with the help of tech strength and consumer-related stocks, although the mainland index briefly wiped out all of its gains amid weakness in property stocks as the press briefing by several Chinese government agencies and the PBoC failed to inspire a turnaround in the sector.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Japan Bankers Association Chair said “Personally, I think the Japanese economy is really at a tipping point with wage increases”
• China’s Housing Minister vowed to stabilise the property market from declining further in the press briefing and said the government has announced a raft of policies on housing, while he announced they will add 1mln village urbanisation projects, as well as expand the white list of projects and bank lending to CNY 4tln. Furthermore, they will adopt monetisation measures for urbanisation projects and cities will make their own decisions regarding property restrictions based on the economic situation and local property market conditions.
• PBoC Deputy Governor said regarding existing mortgage rate cuts that most stock of existing mortgage loans interest rates will be adjusted on October 25th and real estate development loans will be extended until end-2026, while interest rates on existing mortgages are expected to fall by an average 50bps, benefitting 50mln households and 150mln residents.
• China’s Assistant Finance Minister said regarding housing purchases that the use of special loans is to support the local government in accordance with the actual situation and they will further broaden local funding sources, while he said they will reduce the burden on developers and home buyers regarding property taxes.
• China NFRA Deputy Director said all commercial housing loans are to be included in the ‘whitelist’ and management of real estate projects are to be further standardised, while financing will be made more convenient and quicker. The official added that commercial banks should make full use of loans and they should optimise the allocation of loans and method of appropriation.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Sep) -294.3B vs. Exp. -237.6B (Prev. -695.3B, Rev. -703.2B)
• Japanese Exports YY (Sep) -1.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 5.6%, Rev. 5.5%); Imports YY 2.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.3%)
• Australian Employment (Sep) 64.1k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 47.5k); Full Time Employment 51.6k (Prev. -3.1k)
• Australian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%); Participation Rate 67.2% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.1%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

European futures lower ahead of ECB policy announcement and US data – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 01:21 AM

• APAC stocks were mostly in the green following the rebound of equity markets stateside.
• A press briefing by several Chinese government agencies and the PBoC failed to inspire a turnaround in the property sector.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% on Wednesday.
• DXY is steady above the 103.50 mark, AUD leads post-jobs data, EUR/USD trades around the 1.0850 level ahead of ECB.
• Looking ahead, highlights include EZ HICP (Final), US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, Retail Sales, US Industrial Production, ECB & CBRT Policy Announcements, ECB President Lagarde & Fed’s Goolsbee, Supply from Spain & France.
• Earnings from Elevance Health, Truist Financial, M&T Bank, KeyCorp, Travelers, Blackstone, TSMC, Netflix, VAT, ABB, Nestle, Nokia, Pernod Ricard, Publicis, EssilorLuxottica, Entain & Rentokil

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks shrugged off the initial weakness seen at the open to close in the green with the attention on earnings season amid a relatively catalyst-light session. Most sectors gained and advances were led by outperformance in Utilities, Real Estate and Financials with the latter buoyed by strong MS earnings, while Communication, Consumer staples and Technology lagged alongside losses in Meta (META) shares.
• SPX +0.47% at 5,842, NDX +0.07% at 20,174, DJIA +0.79% at 43,078, RUT +1.64% at 2,287.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Goldman Sachs expects the Fed to deliver consecutive 25bps cuts from November 2024 through June 2025 to a terminal rate range of 3.25%-3.50%, while it expects the ECB to deliver a 25bps cut at the upcoming meeting and then sequential 25bps of cuts until the policy rate reaches 2% in June 2025.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were mostly in the green following the rebound of equity markets stateside but with gains capped amid quiet macro catalysts and as China’s property sector briefing failed to rally local developers.
• ASX 200 climbed to a fresh record high led by strength in real estate, industrials and financials, while strong jobs data added to the upbeat mood but further lowered the odds of a rate cut this year.
• Nikkei 225 underperformed following disappointing trade data including a surprise contraction in exports.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp advanced at the open with the help of tech strength and consumer-related stocks, although the mainland index briefly wiped out all of its gains amid weakness in property stocks as the press briefing by several Chinese government agencies and the PBoC failed to inspire a turnaround in the sector.
• US equity futures (ES -0.2%) slightly eased back after the prior day’s rebound as a slew of data looms.
• European equity futures are indicative of a softer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY traded rangebound around the 103.50 level following the prior day’s gains with price action quiet as a deluge of US data releases loom including Retail Sales, Industrial Production, Philly Fed Manufacturing and Initial Jobless Claims.
• EUR/USD lacked demand after recent softening and a failed attempt to return to the 1.0900 territory with participants now looking ahead to the ECB policy decision.
• GBP/USD languished near the prior day’s lows after slipping beneath the 1.3000 level owing to soft UK CPI data.
• USD/JPY mildly retreated after stalling on its approach towards the 150.00 level and amid the weakness in Tokyo stocks.
• Antipodeans traded positively with outperformance in AUD/USD following stronger-than-expected jobs data in which headline Employment Change printed more than double the consensus and unemployment declined despite higher participation.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures faded the previous day’s mild gains in rangebound trade ahead of a slew of upcoming data releases.
• Bund futures trickled lower from a weekly peak but with the downside cushioned by support around the 134.00 level.
• 10yr JGB futures were lacklustre and failed to benefit from the enhanced-liquidity auction for long to super-long JGBs.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were kept afloat after WTI rebounded from support around the USD 70/bbl level albeit with price action contained despite the latest private sector inventory data which showed a surprise draw in headline crude stockpiles.
• US Private inventory data (bbls): Crude -1.6mln (exp. +1.8mln), Gasoline -5.9mln (exp. -1.5mln), Distillates -2.7mln (exp. -2.2mln), Cushing +0.4mln.
• Spot gold was choppy and lacked conviction in quiet trade and as the dollar held on to recent gains.
• Copper futures were initially underpinned alongside the mostly constructive risk tone in Asia but later faltered as participants were underwhelmed by Beijing’s latest press briefing on the property sector.
• Peru copper output rose 10.7% Y/Y in August to 246.6k tons.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin traded indecisively in which prices fluctuated back and forth of the USD 67,500 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s Housing Minister vowed to stabilise the property market from declining further in the press briefing and said the government has announced a raft of policies on housing, while he announced they will add 1mln village urbanisation projects, as well as expand the white list of projects and bank lending to CNY 4tln. Furthermore, they will adopt monetisation measures for urbanisation projects and cities will make their own decisions regarding property restrictions based on the economic situation and local property market conditions.
• PBoC Deputy Governor said regarding existing mortgage rate cuts that most stock of existing mortgage loans interest rates will be adjusted on October 25th and real estate development loans will be extended until end-2026, while interest rates on existing mortgages are expected to fall by an average 50bps, benefitting 50mln households and 150mln residents.
• China’s Assistant Finance Minister said regarding housing purchases that the use of special loans is to support the local government in accordance with the actual situation and they will further broaden local funding sources, while he said they will reduce the burden on developers and home buyers regarding property taxes.
• China NFRA Deputy Director said all commercial housing loans are to be included in the ‘whitelist’ and management of real estate projects are to be further standardised, while financing will be made more convenient and quicker. The official added that commercial banks should make full use of loans and they should optimise the allocation of loans and method of appropriation.

DATA RECAP

• Japanese Trade Balance (JPY)(Sep) -294.3B vs. Exp. -237.6B (Prev. -695.3B, Rev. -703.2B)
• Japanese Exports YY (Sep) -1.7% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. 5.6%, Rev. 5.5%)
• Japanese Imports YY (Sep) 2.1% vs. Exp. 3.2% (Prev. 2.3%)
• Australian Employment (Sep) 64.1k vs. Exp. 25.0k (Prev. 47.5k)
• Australian Full Time Employment (Sep) 51.6k (Prev. -3.1k)
• Australian Unemployment Rate (Sep) 4.1% vs. Exp. 4.2% (Prev. 4.2%)
• Australian Participation Rate (Sep) 67.2% vs. Exp. 67.1% (Prev. 67.1%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli source cited by ABC said PM Netanyahu agreed to a set of targets to be hit inside of Iran without specifying a timeline for the attack, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said he held an emergency discussion on increasing aid to Gaza, according to Reuters citing three Israeli officials.
• Israeli officials have been assuring their US counterparts that Israel will act quickly to improve the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza following an ultimatum from the Biden administration, according to two Israeli officials cited by Axios.
• US President Biden’s envoy told aid groups that Israel is too close an ally for the US to suspend arms, according to POLITICO. It was separately reported that US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to his Israeli counterpart on Wednesday and reinforced the importance of taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese armed forces, according to the Pentagon.
• Qatari PM said there has been no engagement at all from all parties in the last three to four weeks regarding Gaza ceasefire talks.
• Yemen’s Houthi Al Masirah TV reported US-British air strikes which targeted the capital of Sanaa and city of Saada, while US Defence Secretary Austin said US forces targeted several Houthi underground facilities housing various weapons components in Yemen.
• Explosions were heard amid reported Israeli aggression targeting Syria’s Latakia, according to Syrian state media.

OTHER

• China’s Coast Guard said a Japanese fishing boat illegally entered the territorial waters of Diaoyu Island and the Chinese Coast Guard drove away Japanese vessels on October 15th-16th in accordance with the law, according to state media.
• North Korea said roads and railways with South Korea were completely cut off under its constitution that defines the South as a hostile state, while it will continue to take measures to permanently fortify the border with South Korea, according to KCNA.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE’s Prudential Regulation Authority is to signal more rules can be relaxed to support growth, according to FT.
• UK Chancellor Reeves will use her Budget to increase capital gains tax on the sale of shares and other assets but will not change the rate for second homes, according to The Times. It was also reported that Reeves’s Budget is set to be the largest tax raiser in history in which she may look to increase fuel duty and faces backlash from Cabinet colleagues, according to The Telegraph.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3C JAPAN

3D. CHINA

Chinese Stocks Tumble After Latest Round Of Property Stimulus Is A Dud

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 02:05 PM

After a brief burst of hope that Beijing had finally learned its lesson to not parade with fake “big bazookas” meant to simply boost its stock market for a few days (allowing members of the nomenklatura to sell their holdings into the spike) but to follow through forcefully and with resolve, we regret to inform readers that nothing at all has changed, and China has fallen into the old pattern of pretending it is stimulating the economy, and traders pretending they are willing to invest in its stock market.

The latest example of this toxic loop was on exhibit earlier today when China’s policymakers rolled out the latest stimulus aimed at boosting the country’s sluggish property sector, and yet just like all recent previous ones, the measures fell far short of hopes for more specific liquidity support.

In today’s highly-anticipated press conference from MOHURD, jointly with MOF, MNR, PBOC and NFRA, authorities unveiled plans to fast-track credit for struggling property developers, and aim to renovate 1 million apartments in so-called urban shantytowns, a strategy used during the prior real-estate slump.

Additionally, China will deploy more funds for housing projects on the government’s “white list,” with 4 trillion yuan ($550 billion) in loans to be available by the end of this year, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Ni Hong said, urging banks to lend to as many projects as possible. Projects on Beijing’s “white list” are eligible for government-backed financing to complete unfinished apartments and ensure delivery of homes.

Alas, analysts weren’t enthused by the latest moves, which echoed previous efforts by policymakers to aid the property sector. And unfortunately for Xi, who is desperate to launch a market meltup-driven  “wealth effect” only without spending much money to get it, just as with all recent stimulus announcements, this one too was a dud and markets shrugged off the news, which was milder than what many expected after an aggressive round of economic stimulus last month. In fact, the market top was proclaimed by none other than Jim Cramer, who pronouncement we correctly identified as the market top.

It was the top: Chinese stocks tumble into correction, down 15% since Cramer said “you have to come in China stocks right now” https://t.co/Gfk0e9BBeK pic.twitter.com/3D1QSu2CQB— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 17, 2024

Chinese property stocks led losses in Shanghai and Shenzhen. China Vanke closed 7.9% lower in Shenzhen, while sector losses dragged the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index down 1.05% to close below the key 3200 level, finishing the day at 3169.38.

In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Mainland Properties Index, which tracks the performance of Chinese property companies, gave up gains made earlier during the day, and closed 6.7% lower Thursday. Shares of developers Sunac China and China Vanke crashed 27% and 17%, respectively.

As the WSJ reminds us, China launched a similar state-financed slum redevelopment program in 2015. Back then, local governments compensated the residents of demolished homes with cash or new housing, and state policy banks provided loans to local governments to finance the program. Eventually, it worked because China’s overall credit impulse was in far better shape compared to the record plunge in the M1 currently.

Zerlina Zeng, senior director at CreditSights, said the expanded “white list” and the loan-disbursement target sound encouraging, but as with other recently announced “stimulus programs”, will provide little additional funding to the sector or boost home-buying sentiment.

“This is because the proceeds of the loans will be parked at the escrow accounts and cannot be used to service debt or fund new projects,” she said. “The aim of the white list is to accelerate the construction of pre-sold but incomplete homes,” so its expansion won’t help reduce China’s excess property inventory or lift expectations about home prices, she added.

On Thursday, Ni said state banks will offer the same sort of financing support as before, and that local governments can issue special-purpose bonds to fund redevelopment. Commercial banks can extend loans to these projects too, the minister added. But banks might be reluctant to extend new loans to developers due to the credit risk entailed, Zeng said.

The urban-renewal project is also smaller than the previous reconstruction program in 2015-2018, and may take much longer to implement due to developers’ strained liquidity and local governments’ squeezed wallets, she added.

If the latest measures are implemented swiftly, there’s a reasonable chance of success in managing supply and shoring up developers’ finances, said Erica Tay, an economist at Maybank Investment Banking Group.

“Homebuyers’ demand is tougher to control,” she said. “The government can roll out favorable policies, but whether households bite depends on a lot of factors.”

Given the many structural challenges facing the sector and limited policy details, Goldman Sachs maintains its view that there will be no quick fix for the property downturn.

Commenting on the presser, Goldman analysts said that it was generally neutral vs market expectations:

• Upside stems from the likely multi-year plan of cash-backed settlement for urban village renovation and dilapidated/aging housing renovation, though there is still a lack of detail on the size of funding support and time horizon for implementation.
• Downside is related to little mention on incremental policy support to facilitate housing destocking (especially on the funding and implementation strategy), which is crucial for rebalancing the property sector.
• Releveraging As Real Estate Downturn Bites : Goldman estimates China’s non-financial debt to GDP ratio will reach 307% at the end of this year, up from 297% last year, and heightened uncertainites for 2025.

To be sure, policymakers are taking steps in the right direction, analysts say, including the finance ministry’s announcement last Saturday that local government can use proceeds from special government bonds to buy up housing inventory. They just aren’t doing it as rapidly, or as forcefully as the market wants: there have been scant details on further support to facilitate destocking of excess housing inventory in terms of funding and implementation, Goldman Sachs economist Lisheng Wang wrote in a note (available to professional subs in the usual place).

China’s central bank on Thursday said it is also mulling property-sector measures. It’s considering allowing policy banks and commercial lenders to provide loans to property developers to buy land, and could tap relending facilities to offer banks these loans, said Tao Ling, a vice governor at the People’s Bank of China.

Analysts are watching to see what supplementary lending quota the central bank will set for 2025. It earmarked 500 billion yuan in lending for 2024.

Ni said at Thursday’s briefing that property data in October is expected to show “positive and optimistic results.”

After the unprecedented stimulus package in September, sales of new homes in China rose 3% from a year earlier during Oct. 8 to Oct. 16—the first increase since late June, Macquarie economists Larry Hu and Yuxiao Zhang wrote in a note. That momentum may persist near term, but there are question marks over its sustainability, they said.

“Each round of policy easing can stabilize the housing market for a while, but the effect can fade away later,” the Macquarie economists said.

Bottom line, according to Goldman, is that the announced measures could improve to some degree the supply-demand dynamic of the property market in the near term, yet they haven’t fully addressed how the lumpy backlog of construction in progress (not-yet-saleable) and its associated liabilities (est. Rmb16tn out of total Rmb57tn by end-23E) will be resolved, beyond the government’s land buyback initiatives. In our view, this will also be critical for a more sustainable macro and property market recovery.

And in keeping with the recent pattern of disappointing pressers coupled with expectations for bigger and better stimulus to be unveiled at some future occasion, investor focus now shifts towards the next National People’s Congress of China session, which is emerging as the last chance Hail Mary for Beijing to unveil something truly market moving (as the alternative is an economic debacle and much more stimulus including QE eventually). Goldman remains hopeful predicting that “further policy initiatives are likely in order, as regulators seem keen to find the right balance and support the market”; the market however is once again selling first and asking questions later.

More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

ECB

ECB cuts rates as expected

(zerohedge)

ECB Cuts Rates As Expected With Disinflation “Well On Track”. Keeps Guidance Unchanged

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 08:28 AM

As expected by literally every economist, moments ago the ECB cut its three key rates by 25bps for the second consecutive meeting, in a show of support to the rapidly shrinking European economy and saying it did so because “incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track” and adding that “the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity. Meanwhile, financing conditions remain restrictive.”

Specifically, the ECB cut its Marginal Lending Facility from 3.90% to 3.65%, the Refinancing rate from 3.65% to 3.40% and the Deposit Rate from 3.50% to 3.25%.

Some highlights from the statement:

Inflation

• Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace.
• Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year
• Disinflationary process is well on track

Labor Market

• At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.

Guidance:

• Will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary. The Governing Council is not pre-committing to a particular rate path, and data will determine level, duration of restriction
• ECB to Follow Data-Dependent, Meeting-by-Meeting Approach
• ECB to Keep Rates Sufficiently Restrictive as Long as Needed

Here is the comment on the unchanged guidance:

“The Governing Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner. It will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim. The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.”

Some have pointed out that the only real alteration to the statement’s wording is the line around inflation being at 2% in the course of 2025, as opposed to in H2-2025, potentially an acknowledgement of recent HICP progress, with this morning’s Final September Y/Y measure subject to a downward revision to 1.7%, though we await the presser for more clarity on the importance of the language change.

Commenting on the ECB, Bloomberg Intelligence European Equity Strategist Laurent Douillet said that there was “no surprise there,” adding that “a 50-bp cut at the next meeting in December is a possibility if the two inflation and PMI prints of October and November continue to surprise on the downside. With this rate cut and many more — five by the end of next year — already priced into European equities, the current earnings season is more likely to dominate market movements.”

And indeed, as we wrote in our preview, there is virtually no reaction in the EURUSD, which moves very little after the report and was last seen at 1.0863 because the ECB did very much as expected.

As newsquawk notes, a 25bps cut was delivered and based on an “updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission’ with the incoming inflation on inflation showing the disinflationary process is well on track”.

From the upcoming press conference, we look for any signs that there was dissenting voices on the decision; interestingly, the continued inclusion of the line that it will ‘keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary…” could be seen as one for the hawks in order to appease them against the cut. Reminder, cutting at the October meeting is a departure from the guidance provided around September but very much in-fitting with communication more recently given the progress of inflation and soft growth outturns. Evidently, any disagreement on the board may be clearer from source reports that the Q&A itself.

Dissent insight aside, we are attentive to any guidance from Lagarde that goes beyond the data dependent” and meeting by meeting’ approach.

end

EU

This is what we are up against!

EU Bureaucrats Consider Targeting Elon Musk’s Entire Empire Over X’s ‘Free Speech’

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 10:05 AM

Radical EU bureaucrats are weaponizing the Digital Services Act (DSA) to crack down on free speech that doesn’t align with government-approved narratives on social media, including Elon Musk’s ‘free speech’ platform X. The EU’s attack on free speech online has possibly entered a new chapter, with Musk’s entire business empire potentially in the crosshairs of fines.

Bloomberg reported that EU bureaucrats are mulling over how to calculate fines against X for failing to combat what the bloc deems ‘illegal content or disinformation’ on the social media platform (this spat between EU-Musk has been ongoing for about a year). In other words, EU officials are livid with Musk because X does not censor and/or shadow-ban folks based on political views. So, these bureaucrats must potentially resort to lawfare against their political enemies.

The report cites people familiar with the matter who said EU bureaucrats are mulling over whether to expand the potential fine of up to 6% of X’s yearly global revenue to Musk’s other companies, including SpaceX, Neuralink, xAI, and the Boring Company. 

Under the EU’s Digital Services Act, the bloc can slap online platforms with fines of as much as 6% of their yearly global revenue for failing to tackle illegal content and disinformation or follow transparency rules. Regulators are considering whether sales from SpaceX, Neuralink, xAI and the Boring Company, in addition to revenue generated from the social network, should be included to determine potential fines against X, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. -BBG

More from Bloomberg:

The European Commission has been investigating X for several potential breaches of the Digital Services Act, newly introduced rules meant to ensure platforms police illegal content. The EU is leading a global crackdown on harmful online content and disinformation that’s sparked increasingly vocal responses from Musk, who has said such measures restrict free speech.

… 

The commission hasn’t yet decided whether to penalize X, and the size of any potential fine is still under discussion, the people said. Penalties may be avoided if X finds ways to satisfy the watchdog’s concerns.

Musk has previously stated on X that he wants a “very public battle in court” with the EU over its censorship tactics…

EU Bureaucrats Consider Targeting Elon Musk’s Entire Empire Over X’s ‘Free Speech’

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 10:05 AM

Radical EU bureaucrats are weaponizing the Digital Services Act (DSA) to crack down on free speech that doesn’t align with government-approved narratives on social media, including Elon Musk’s ‘free speech’ platform X. The EU’s attack on free speech online has possibly entered a new chapter, with Musk’s entire business empire potentially in the crosshairs of fines.

Bloomberg reported that EU bureaucrats are mulling over how to calculate fines against X for failing to combat what the bloc deems ‘illegal content or disinformation’ on the social media platform (this spat between EU-Musk has been ongoing for about a year). In other words, EU officials are livid with Musk because X does not censor and/or shadow-ban folks based on political views. So, these bureaucrats must potentially resort to lawfare against their political enemies.

The report cites people familiar with the matter who said EU bureaucrats are mulling over whether to expand the potential fine of up to 6% of X’s yearly global revenue to Musk’s other companies, including SpaceX, Neuralink, xAI, and the Boring Company. 

Under the EU’s Digital Services Act, the bloc can slap online platforms with fines of as much as 6% of their yearly global revenue for failing to tackle illegal content and disinformation or follow transparency rules. Regulators are considering whether sales from SpaceX, Neuralink, xAI and the Boring Company, in addition to revenue generated from the social network, should be included to determine potential fines against X, people familiar with the matter said, asking not to be identified because the information isn’t public. -BBG

More from Bloomberg:

The European Commission has been investigating X for several potential breaches of the Digital Services Act, newly introduced rules meant to ensure platforms police illegal content. The EU is leading a global crackdown on harmful online content and disinformation that’s sparked increasingly vocal responses from Musk, who has said such measures restrict free speech.

… 

The commission hasn’t yet decided whether to penalize X, and the size of any potential fine is still under discussion, the people said. Penalties may be avoided if X finds ways to satisfy the watchdog’s concerns.

Musk has previously stated on X that he wants a “very public battle in court” with the EU over its censorship tactics…

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1811805084981834164?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E181180508498

Bloomberg continued:

The review of X began under Thierry Breton, the EU’s former tech czar who often feuded with Musk online and had been granted special powers to enforce the DSA without the need for the commission’s rubber stamp. After Breton resigned in September, he bequeathed his fining powers to competition and digital boss Margrethe Vestager. Decisions on the penalties and how they are calculated would ultimately lie with Vestager.

In August, commissioner Breton sent a letter to Musk threatening X with punishment if they didn’t crack down on “content that promotes hatred, disorder, incitement to violence, or certain instances of disinformation.”

witter.com/elonmusk/status/1823076043017630114?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E182307604301

By mid-Sept., Breton resigned after going rogue on Musk. 

https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1835683783904817566?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1835683783904

What’s very clear is that EU bureaucrats and radical Democrats in the US, including the Obama-Biden-Harris team, have pushed censorship campaigns under the guise of ‘public safety’ to silence and destroy political enemies. Dictators and demagogues usually use these tactics.

In the US, Musk has been hit with an obscene amount of lawfare by federal agencies under the Biden-Harris administration, such as the FAA slowing down SpaceX rocket launches or the FCC rejecting Starlink space internet in the US’ rural internet program. This lawfare shows just how desperate Democrats have become – and that’s because – if Trump wins, X becomes the primary source of news and narratives, which would entirely displace legacy MSM.

Bloomberg continued:

The review of X began under Thierry Breton, the EU’s former tech czar who often feuded with Musk online and had been granted special powers to enforce the DSA without the need for the commission’s rubber stamp. After Breton resigned in September, he bequeathed his fining powers to competition and digital boss Margrethe Vestager. Decisions on the penalties and how they are calculated would ultimately lie with Vestager.

In August, commissioner Breton sent a letter to Musk threatening X with punishment if they didn’t crack down on “content that promotes hatred, disorder, incitement to violence, or certain instances of disinformation.”

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1823076043017630114?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18230760430176

By mid-Sept., Breton resigned after going rogue on Musk. 

https://twitter.com/HansMahncke/status/1835683783904817566?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18356837

What’s very clear is that EU bureaucrats and radical Democrats in the US, including the Obama-Biden-Harris team, have pushed censorship campaigns under the guise of ‘public safety’ to silence and destroy political enemies. Dictators and demagogues usually use these tactics.

In the US, Musk has been hit with an obscene amount of lawfare by federal agencies under the Biden-Harris administration, such as the FAA slowing down SpaceX rocket launches or the FCC rejecting Starlink space internet in the US’ rural internet program. This lawfare shows just how desperate Democrats have become – and that’s because – if Trump wins, X becomes the primary source of news and narratives, which would entirely displace legacy MSM.

END

GERMANY

END

 

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS

Israel news reports that he is dead!

Security officials: ‘High chance that Sinwar was killed in Gaza strike’

At this stage, the identity of the terrorists cannot be confirmed, the IDF said.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 17, 2024 15:50Updated: OCTOBER 17, 2024 16:54

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-825018&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241017_4b4db6e9ab199f705bebfff30b5370e81ce3dae9&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Security officials have said that the chances that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in a strike in Gaza are “increasingly higher,” Israeli media reported on Thursday.

https://twitter.com/Doron_Kadosh/status/1846901349507588135?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18469

The IDF and Shin Bet (ISA) put out a joint statement on the possible assassination earlier Thursday.

“Initial report – During IDF operations in the Gaza Strip, three terrorists were eliminated. The IDF and ISA are checking the possibility that one of the terrorists was Yahya Sinwar. At this stage, the identity of the terrorists cannot be confirmed,” the IDF said.

“In the building where the terrorists were eliminated, there were no signs of the presence of hostages in the area. The forces that are operating in the area are continuing to operate with the required caution.”

Sinwar orchestrated the October 7 Massacre, which led to the deaths of over 1,200 people, including Israelis and other nationalities alike, and took hostage over 250 people, of which 101 remain in Gaza. 

Of the 101 hostages, the IDF confirmed that 48 were killed in captivity. 

Sinwar was widely believed to be hiding in Hamas tunnels throughout the Gaza Strip, never staying in one location for too long and avoiding communications technologies, relying on messengers.

Human shields

The Hamas terror chief was believed to be surrounded by the remaining hostages as a human shield, which has reportedly prevented the IDF from striking and killing him. Again, the IDF reiterated in their statement that no signs of hostages were present at the site of the strike.

Conflicting reports emerged of whether Sinwar had left the tunnels over the course of the Israel-Hamaw War, and the IDF obtained footage of the Hamas chief walking through the tunnels in February of this year. 

---

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Several Hamas leaders have been eliminated by Israel, including Hamas political head Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July, and Hamas military leader Mohammed Deif, who was killed in the Gaza Strip in July. 

This is a developing story. 

end

‘Somewhere in hell’ he wishes he made a deal: Israel reacts to reports of Sinwar’s death

“…Somewhere in hell, Yahya Sinwar is sitting with the whole of Hamas’ leadership, looking up and thinking they should have released the hostages when they had the chance,” Eylon Levy wrote.

By DANIELLE GREYMAN-KENNARDOCTOBER 17, 2024 17:11Updated: OCTOBER 17, 2024 17:35

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-825024&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241017_4b4db6e9ab199f705bebfff30b5370e81ce3dae9&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF’s Thursday announcement that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar might have been eliminated in Gaza was met with celebration by several Israeli officials. 

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, sharing photos of eliminated Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas terrorist Mohammed Deif, wrote on X/Twitter “You will pursue your enemies and they will fall before you by the sword.” – Leviticus 26 Our enemies cannot hide. We will pursue and eliminate them.”

https://twitter.com/yoavgallant/status/1846911544526807303?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18469115445268073

Former government spokesperson Eylon Levy commented on X “It is possible that somewhere in hell, Yahya Sinwar is sitting with the whole of Hamas’ leadership, looking up and thinking they should have released the hostages when they had the chance.” 

https://twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1846896378028429679?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18468963

During Hamas’s October 7 attacks, which were masterminded by Sinwar, terrorists abducted over 250 people and murdered more than 1200. While some of the hostages were released in a November deal, and others were rescued by the Israeli military, over 100 remain captive – a significant number of which are believed to have been killed. 

Israeli leadership has met with Qatari, American and numerous international parties in attempts to broker a new ceasefire deal – which Hamas has repeatedly refused, despite claiming that the war they started has created a high civilian death toll in the Gaza Strip.

“After Bin Laden was killed, his body was chucked in the sea. Just saying.”

Twitter.com/EylonALevy/status/1846913075439349777?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846913075439349777%7Ctwgr%5E57d3038a164

---

---

Israel’s Chargé d’affaires to Spain Dan Poraz also commented on the reports, posting on X “The man who brought death and misery to millions, the mass murderer of Jews and Israelis, who destroyed Gaza, who brought disaster to the Palestinians, and refused to end the suffering and free our hostages—this man is dead. Yahya Sinwar is dead. May he forever burn in hell.”

https://twitter.com/PorazDan/status/1846921264524370015?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E184692126452437

US officials also celebrated the reports of Sinwar’s death

“The world, in all likelihood, has been rid of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of the deadliest massacre of the Jewish people since the Holocaust,” Representative Ritchie Torres wrote on X. “We are awaiting official confirmation of the status of Sinwar’s corpse rotting in hell where he belongs.”

https://twitter.com/RitchieTorres/status/1846909305494069755?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1846909305494

end

Israel Believes It Has Killed ‘October 7 Mastermind’, Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 10:45 AM

In a huge breaking development, Israeli officials believe that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is dead. His alleged death may have been the result of an Israeli army attack on a building in Rafah, in southern Gaza. He oversaw the terror attacks of October 7 of last year and has remained Israel’s target #1.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) which were operating in south Gaza were not specifically seeking to target him, but a body recovered at the scene suggests he may have been killed. Israeli sources and media are saying there is a “high likelihood” Sinwar has been killed.

“At this stage, the identity of the terrorists cannot be confirmed,” the Israeli army and air force said in a joint statement as speculation mounts, also as gruesome photographs of a badly mangled body circulate widely online.

The Washington Post writes that “A body, believed to be Sinwar’s, is being brought to Israel for DNA analysis, according to an Israeli official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly.” According to more details:

“We have his DNA from when he was in jail,” Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations Danny Danon said in an interview in September, at a previous moment when Israeli authorities believed they might have killed the Hamas leader. Danon said at the time that DNA analysis had been run on previous bodies, but that the testing had not been a match.

According to Israeli journalist Nadav Eyal, “A reserve IDF force operating near Rafah spotted three armed men in a building, which was then hit by a drone/tank shell.”

He describes that “A man resembling Sinwar and a Hamas regiment commander were found dead with a substantial amount of cash and weapons. This was part of the ongoing IDF operation, not a targeted assassination. No hostages are believed to have been present, but the ground is being inspected to confirm.”

While Israel’s military is urging caution and patience amid all the rumors, if confirmed it would be a huge win for Israel, and major setback for Hamas:

Army chief Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi vowed to “find him (Sinwar), attack him” and force Hamas to find another leader.

Sinwar — Hamas’s leader in Gaza since 2017 — has not been seen since the October 7 attack, the deadliest in Israel’s history.

It would certainly mark the biggest development of the conflict since the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31st of this year.

Israeli army publishes footage of what it says is the operation that “led to the assassination of Yahya Sinwar”…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846911711988650215

A prominent open source analysis X account, OSINTdefender, writes that “One of the Images claimed to show the Body of Yahya Sinwar, following an Israeli Strike earlier today on Southern Gaza. With Facial Features as well as his Watch appearing to be an Exact Match to the Leader of Hamas.”

Strong rumors of his death have been circulating in Arabic media as well.

https://twitter.com/Joyce_Karam/status/1846917932594401500?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E184691

developing…

END

SINWAR IS DEAD!!

Gallant calls on Hamas fighters to surrender, release hostages following Sinwar killing

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant calls on Hamas fighters to release the hostages and surrender following Israel’s assassination of the terror group’s leader Yahya Sinwar.

“The State of Israel has brought justice with the elimination of Yahya Sinwar – a vile murderer and terrorist. Yahya Sinwar is the terrorist, the master terrorist, who planned and carried out the October 7th [massacre], during which so many innocent Israelis were murdered – children, women and the elderly,” Gallant says in a statement.

“The elimination of Sinwar joins a long series of eliminations – from Nasrallah to Hamas military chief Muhammad Deif and many more [terrorists]. We will pursue and eliminate our enemies.”

“Sinwar died while… on the run. He didn’t die as a commander, but as someone who only cared for himself. This is a clear message to all of our enemies – the IDF will reach anyone who attempts to harm the citizens of Israel or our security forces, and we will bring you to justice.”

“The elimination of Yahya Sinwar sends a clear message to all the families of the fallen and the families of the hostages: we are doing everything in order to reach those who harmed your loved ones and to free the hostages and return them to their families.”

“It is also a clear message to the residents of Gaza. The man who brought disaster and death to the Gaza Strip, the man who made you suffer as a result of his murderous actions – the end of this man has come. It is time to go out, release the hostages, [to those involved in fighting] raise your hands, surrender. Go out with the hostages, free them, and surrender.”

“It is my privilege to salute the soldiers of the IDF, the Chief of the General Staff and Director of the Shin Bet for their dedicated work,” Gallant adds.

PLO meets following killing of Hamas leader Sinwar

By Gianluca Pacchiani

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is chairing an emergency meeting of the Palestine Liberation Organization’s Executive Council to discuss ongoing developments following the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the Saudi news channel Al-Hadath reports.

Herzog hails killing of Hamas leader Sinwar

By Sam Sokol

President Isaac Herzog commends the IDF, Shin Bet and security services for eliminating “the arch-terrorist Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar, the mastermind behind the deadly October 7th attack, has for years been responsible for heinous acts of terrorism against Israeli civilians, citizens of other countries, and the murder of thousands of innocent people.”

Sinwar’s “evil endeavors were dedicated to terror, bloodshed, and destabilizing the Middle East,” Herzog states, adding that “now, more than ever, we must act in every way possible to bring back the 101 hostages who are still being held in horrific conditions by Hamas terrorists in GaZA

20min ago

IDF confirms death of Hamas leader, Oct. 7 architect Yahya Sinwar

By Lazar Berman

Head of Hamas in Gaza Yahya Sinwar chairs a meeting with leaders of Palestinian factions at his office in Gaza City, April 13, 2022. (AP Photo/Adel Hana, File)

The IDF and Shin Bet announce that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed.

In a joint statement, they say that recent IDF and Shin Bet operations reduced Sinwar’s area of operations, ultimately leading to his death.

The statement explains that over the past few weeks, the 162nd Division and Gaza Division have been operation in Gaza in areas where intelligence indicates senior Hamas officials have been hiding. A force from the 828th Bislamach Brigade killed three terrorists, and one of them was identified today as Sinwar.

Gantz: Sinwar’s death important, but it’s not end of the war; IDF will continue operating in Gaza for years to come

By Sam Sokol

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death is an “important achievement” but it does not mark the end of the war, National Unity chief and former war cabinet minister Benny Gantz declares.

The IDF “will continue to operate in the Gaza Strip for years to come” and Israel must leverage recent achievements, including the death of Sinwar, “to bring about the return of the hostages and the replacement of Hamas’ rule.”

“On this day, we must also remember the painful price of the war — all the murdered and the fallen,” he says, offering his support to Israel’s soldiers “who have been working for over a year on all fronts to ensure this never happens again.”

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid welcomes the death of Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar, calling him “one of the world’s worst terrorists” and comparing him to the leaders of Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.

Sinwar “dedicated his life to an evil ideology of hatred and death. He was the embodiment of evil,” Lapid tweets. “His name belongs alongside [Osama] Bin Laden and [Ibrahim Awad Ibrahim Ali] al-Baghdadi for the terror and misery they reaped on the world. Justice has been done.”

“All our enemies will perish,” he adds in another tweet. “Let all our enemies know on every front, in every tunnel, in every house that it will be the end of them if they go against the State of Israel. Especially today we must not forget, 101 hostages are still in Gaza. This is the moment to double and triple efforts to bring them home.”

Lapid earlier on Thursday called on the Israeli government to take advantage of the opportunity presented by Sinwar’s death to “strive for a comprehensive deal and also offer monetary rewards and safe passage to anyone who brings hostages to our forces.”

end

PM after Sinwar killing: Those holding hostages will be spared if they lay down arms, release them

By Lazar Berman

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gives a video statement on the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar on October 17, 2024. (Screen capture)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar marks “the beginning of the day after Hamas.”

“Hamas will no longer rule Gaza,” Netanyahu promises in a video statement. “This is the beginning of the day after Hamas, and this is an opportunity for you, the residents of Gaza, to finally break free from its tyranny.”

Turning to the hostage families, Netanyahu says this is “an important moment” in the war. “We will continue with all our strength until the return of all of your loved ones, who are our loved ones.”

Netanyahu then turns to Gazan civilians: “Sinwar ruined your life. He told you he was a lion, but in reality he was hiding in a dark den. And he was killed when he fled in a panic from our soldiers.”

“To the Hamas terrorists I say: your leaders are fleeing and they will be eliminated,” he continues.

He says that anyone holding hostages will be allowed to live if they lay down their weapons and release their captives.

“And at the same time I say, whoever harms our hostages, his blood will be on his head,” says Netanyahu. ” We will come to a reckoning with him.”

Netanyahu says freeing the hostages brings the end of the war closer.

Addressing the people of the Middle East, Netanyahu says there is “a great opportunity to stop the axis of evil and create a different future.”

Netanyahu says that Sinwar’s killing makes clear to critics in Israel and abroad why his government insisted on continuing the war. “Why we insisted, in the face of all the pressures, to enter Rafah, the fortified stronghold of Hamas where Sinwar and many of the murderers hid.”

Still, warns Netanyahu, the war is not yet over, and continues to extract a heavy toll.

END

SHE IS AN IDIOT!

Kamala Harris Celebrates Hamas Chief’s Killing, After Loudly Opposing Operation That Got Him

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Update(1600): Kamala Harris is hailing Israel’s killing of Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar. But last spring as the IDF was poised to expand its operations further south into Rafah, she was firmly against it. She had even warned of “consequences” (which of course never came). Throughout the more than year-long conflict the Biden-Harris administration has been speaking out of both sides of its mouth. The contradictions abound. Of course, the first and foremost contradiction is that the administration has admitted that large-scale massacres of civilians have taken place in Gaza, yet continues to arm America’s “closest Mideast ally” to the teeth and to the tune of billions.

And now for the latest glaring contradiction, here’s Harris back in March:

Israel could face “consequences” if it launches a ground assault on the city of Rafah in southern Gaza, the US vice president has warned.

Vice President Kamala Harris said in an interview that aired on Sunday that it would be a “huge mistake” for the Israeli military to move on the city. The comments appear to underscore the continued strain in relations between Washington and Israel as the latter’s war in Gaza continues.

Below: But here she is today, offering a celebratory congratulations to Israel on the Hamas chief’s death, while trying to appear ‘presidential’ as a potential future commander-in-chief…

“Justice has been served, and the United States, Israel and the entire world are better off…”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846997535262757084

One online commenter noted, “All she ever did was shout for a ceasefire, now she’s practically giving the US credit for defeating Hamas.”

She during the remarks underscored that this “moment gives us an opportunity to finally end the war in Gaza.” So far it appears that Netanyahu sees it differently, having stated that he’ll pursue the return of the hostages by any means possible (while appearing to rule out negotiations or ceasefire).

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

Netanyahu has approved targets for an attack against Tehran – report

By MAARIVOCTOBER 17, 2024 00:48

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-824964&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

An Israeli source told ABC News on Wednesday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu approved a list of targets to attack in response to Iran’s aerial assault.

The source declined to elaborate on the specific targets or to confirm whether the action would target Iranian military sites.

A timetable for the attacks has not yet been set

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

‘A dangerous player’: Hezbollah’s secret naval threat

Over the last decade, Hezbollah’s naval arsenal has grown significantly

By WALLA!OCTOBER 17, 2024 04:17

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-824968&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israeli Navy officials say that Hezbollah still has a functioning naval arm that possesses anti-ship missiles and potentially naval ballistic missiles as well.

The IDF has closely monitored Hezbollah’s naval capacities over the last decade; most of its attention was on the Russian-made supersonic Yakhont missile, described as the “nightmare of Western fleets.” According to assessments, the missile was sold from Russia to Syria and was then transferred to Hezbollah.

Hezbollah has developed a secretive naval unit with Iran’s support, though the IDF has successfully diminished some of its capabilities. The naval unit has sophisticated abilities, including coastal raids and vessel attacks. It has acquired advanced missiles and radars, some of which are similar to those possessed by the Houthis in Yemen. 

Navy officials believe that there is a low likelihood that Hezbollah will attempt a surprise naval attack because of the IDF’s maritime alertness near Lebanese waters.

Hezbollah struck the INS Hanit with a C-802 missile during the Second Lebanon War, but the organization has upgraded its arsenal since then. 

Field experts weigh in

The IDF’s current assumption is that Iran smuggled a wide variety of missiles to Hezbollah before and during the current war.

“The Houthis used a naval ballistic missile that surprised many Western intelligence agencies,” said an Israeli field expert. “It has an electro-optical capability to acquire a target. It’s a dangerous player. It comes from a very high altitude and descends on the vessel at a sharp angle. The naval Iron Dome can deal with it, but it’s a new and challenging threat in the arena.

“We knew the Chinese had similar missiles, but the Iranians were surprised by upgrading the capability and transferring it to the Houthis, who a year ago missed quite a few ships but have started improving. There’s documentation showing their missile hitting a ship at a 40-degree angle—it’s still a challenge. The sharper it descends from above, the harder it is to intercept, not only for the defense of ships but also platforms (rigs).”

END

ISRAEL HOUTHIS/USA

Austin says US struck 5 underground Houthi weapons storage sites in Yemen

By Reuters

The United States conducted precision strikes against five underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin says in a statement.

“US forces targeted several of the Houthis’ underground facilities housing various weapons components of types that the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels throughout the region,” Austin says.

END

US said to target Houthi weapons storage sites in strikes on Yemen

By Reuters

Yemen’s Al Masirah TV, which belongs to the Houthis, says US-British airstrikes targeted the capital city of Sanaa and the city of Saada early Thursday.

Citing US officials, ABC News reports that the US military struck Houthi weapons storage facilities.

“US Central Command forces conducted multiple airstrikes on numerous Iran-backed Houthi weapons storage facilities within Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen,” a US defense official says, according to ABC News.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/SYRIA/RUSSIA

Syrian, Russian Warplanes Pound AQ In Idlib After Israeli Attacks On Damascus

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 09:45 PM

Via The Cradle

Syrian and Russian fighter jets carried out several air raids on Wednesday targeting positions belonging to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) terrorist group, formerly Al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front. 

The strikes hit HTS positions in the countryside of the northern Idlib governorate, as well as in the countryside of the northwestern city of Latakia, for the second day in a row, according to Al Mayadeen’s correspondent. “The raids targeted military training sites and warehouses, in addition to an underground tunnel in the vicinity of the town of Benin in Jabal al-Zawiya,” Al Mayadeen reported. 

Russian and Syrian jets have stepped up their bombardment of HTS positions in the Idlib and Latakia countryside over the past few days. 

Syrian-Russian airstrikes targeted the extremist group’s encampments in the Al-Basel Forest west of Idlib city on Monday, as well as the hills surrounding the towns of Sheikh Bahr and Kafr Jales. 

Sources told Al Mayadeen that the strikes two days ago hit an underground machinery warehouse in Idlib city. 

According to the opposition-linked war monitor, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), Syrian army forces brought in additional military reinforcements to Idlib from the suburbs of Aleppo and its western countryside. 

Syria intensified its bombing campaign against Idlib in October last year, following a drone attack carried out by extremists under HTS command, which targeted a Syrian military college, killing dozens. According to several reports, anti-government extremist militants in northern Syria have expanded their drone arsenal and expertise in drone warfare through recent cooperation with Ukraine. 

Idlib is the last governorate of Syria under full control of extremist armed opposition groups. Damascus’ forces made their first advancement towards Idlib in 2019 when they captured the town of Habeet in the Idlib countryside.

The latest strikes on Idlib come as Syria has withstood repeated Israeli attacks. Damascus has, over the years, accused HTS and other extremist groups in the country of close cooperation with Tel Aviv. 

Northeastern Syria has also witnessed significant escalation in recent months, particularly after heavy fighting broke out in August between pro-government Arab tribes and Washington-backed Kurdish militants of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) near US-occupied parts of the country. 

The fighting has come to an end, yet tensions remain high. Tribal figures and academics in Syria’s northeast have attempted to bridge the divides between Damascus and several Kurdish organizations with a new national dialogue initiative. Syrian officials held talks with SDF officials and US-backed Kurdish authorities last year, but the negotiations never progressed. 

END

HEZBOLLAH// ISRAEL

Rocket sirens sound in Haifa, across northern Israel early on Thursday

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 17, 2024 07:45Updated: OCTOBER 17, 2024 07:58

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-824985&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Rocket sirens sounded in several localities in northern Israel early on Thursday morning, including in the areas of Haifa, Yokne’am, Acre, and the Upper Galilee. 

Following the sirens that sounded in northern Israel, two projectiles were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory, the IDF stated on Thursday morning. One projectile was intercepted by the Israel Air Force, and the other fell in an open area. 

This is a developing story. 

END

IRAN/ISRAEL/EGYPT

Iran’s foreign minister makes rare trip to Egypt

By REUTERSOCTOBER 17, 2024 09:33Updated: OCTOBER 17, 2024 09:34

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-824991&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241015_cff49fe31e7937c75cdc7861b333330c2797d125&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi landed in Cairo late on Wednesday for talks with Egyptian officials, the first such visit in years as part of a Middle Eastern tour amid concerns of a wider confrontation in the region with Israel.

Tensions are high in anticipation of the nature of an expected Israeli attack on Iran in retaliation for Iran’s missile attack on October 1. That followed a rapidly spiralling conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Araghchi arrived for “important talks with Egypt’s high ranking officials that will be held tomorrow [Thursday],” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, on Wednesday, after stops in countries including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq and Lebanon.

Relations between Egypt and Iran have generally been fraught in recent decades but the two countries have stepped up high-level diplomatic contacts since the eruption of the Gaza crisis last year as Egypt tried to play a mediating role.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty traveled to Tehran in July to attend the country’s presidential inauguration.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

IDF troops destroy terror infrastructure, kill gunmen in battles in Gaza

Today, 10:40 am

The IDF says troops in the Nahal Brigade eliminated gunmen and destroyed terror infrastructure during operations in the southern Gazan city of Rafah.

The military adds that soldiers in the 401st Brigade operating in northern Gaza also eliminated a terror squadron and uncovered many weapons, including grenades, Kalashnikov guns, explosives, and mortars.

In central Gaza, the 179th Brigade began operating in the Bureij refugee camp and Nuseirat over the past day, the IDF says.

end 

/ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/THURSDAY MORNING

IDF kills Hezbollah battalion commander, destroys 150 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon

Today, 10:31 am

The IDF says they killed a Hezbollah battalion commander in the southern Lebanese Bint Jbeil district.

In an operational update, the IDF says Hussein Muhammed Auda was responsible for rocket fire on Israel originating from several towns in the Bint Jbeil district.

Additionally, airstrikes eliminated 45 terrorists and destroyed 150 Hezbollah sites over the past day, including weapons stores, rocket launchers and buildings used for military purposes.

The IDF releases footage of the strikes.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846814896576475368

More from 

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

IRGC chief vows to respond ‘painfully’ if Israel attacks Iran

Today, 9:50 am

The head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami, attends a military parade as part of a ceremony marking the country’s annual army day in Tehran, on April 17, 2024. (Atta Kenare/AFP)

TEHRAN, Iran — Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief Hossein Salami warns of further retaliation against Israel if it attacks Iranian targets, which Israel has vowed to do after Iran’s missile attack on October 1.

“If you make a mistake and attack our targets, whether in the region or in Iran, we will strike you again painfully,” Salami says at the funeral of a Guards general killed in an Israeli strike alongside Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon last month.

END

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/USA

A first: B2 stealth bombers hit underground bunkers in Yemen

(zerohedge)

US Sends B-2 Stealth Bombers To Hit Houthi Underground Bunkers In War’s First

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 12:45 PM

In the early morning hours of Thursday the US sent B-2 stealth bombers to launch major bombing raids on Houthi targets in Yemen. Was this a preview bombing run ahead of the expected major Israeli attack on Iran?

The warplanes hit underground bunkers used by the Houthis, and is the first known instance the B-2 stealth jets were deployed in combat over Yemen since the war on Red Sea shipping began more than a year ago.

The Associated Press called it a warning to Iran and noted that while the extent of damage is as yet unclear, “the attack appeared to be the first use of the B-2 in combat in years and the first time the flying wing targeted sites in Yemen.”

Any potential Israeli strikes on Iran are also expected to target underground bunkers which conceal ballistic missiles, possibly with US-supplied munitions such as bunker busting ordinance. US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in commenting on the fresh action over Yemen hinted at this.

“This was a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened or fortified,” he said.

Austin specified that targets were successfully struck at “five hardened underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.”

According to more on this new attack against a group seen as Iran’s proxy on the Arabian peninsula, and how it sets up for potential further military action against Iran:

The B-2 would be used in any American attack on hardened Iranian nuclear facilities like Natanz or Fordo given it is the only aircraft in service that can drop the GBU-57, known as the “Massive Ordnance Penetrator.”

But the Pentagon’s anti-Houthi actions might still be seen as coming a bit late. The Houthis have for over a year held Red Sea shipping essentially hostage with its unrelenting campaign which has seen over 80 merchant vessels targeted with drones and missiles.

US warships have also been directly targeted, in what’s been called the largest US Navy battle at sea going back to World War II. There’s long been speculation that US military ships have actually been struck, but that the Pentagon has concealed it.

The B-2s which struck Yemen reportedly flew all the way from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri.

While there have been prior rounds of US and Israeli air offensives against the Houthis, this hasn’t set back Houthi capabilities in any significant or known way, but only appears to have deepened their resolve to punish Israel and its allies related to the Gaza war.

Independent journalist Michael Tracey observes of Thursday’s Pentagon strikes, “For 10 months, the US has been bombing Yemen on behalf of Israel with zero Congressional authorization — Congress actively refuses to take action either way — and as usual, it’s simply not an issue in the presidential campaign.”

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/ITALY

you order your citizens out of Lebanon and Israel to keep them out of harms way and yet you keep UN troops in Lebanon?

Italy’s Meloni On Israel Arms Embargo: “We Have Blocked Everything”

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 02:45 AM

The Italian government has imposed the strictest arms embargo on Israel among any European nation, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni having confirmed before the Italian senate that all new arms deals were blocked within weeks of the start of Israel’s military offensive in Gaza.

“After the start of [Israeli military] operations in Gaza, the government immediately suspended all new export licenses, and all agreements signed after October 7th were not implemented,” Meloni said on Tuesday.

She further described that licenses authorized before the war are being “analyzed on a case-by-case basis by the competent authority at the foreign ministry.”

“We have blocked everything,” the Italian leader said while acknowledging that her government’s ban is “much more restrictive than that applied by our partners—France, Germany and the United Kingdom.”

Pro-Israel sources as well as Jewish news agencies in the West have described Italy’s rhetoric as “increasingly hostile” toward Israel of late, particularly after the escalation of war in Lebanon.

Meloni in her Tuesday address made reference to ongoing controversy surrounding Israeli forces targeting troops of the UN Interim Force In Lebanon (UNIFIL). Italy and Ireland tend to be Europe’s largest contributor of troops to the peacekeeping team which has its command HQ in south Lebanon.

Two UNIFIL troops have been wounded by Israeli forces (IDF) thus far. “Even if there have been no casualties or extensive damage, I think that Israel’s attack on UNIFIL cannot be considered acceptable,” the Italian premier said. “We believe that the attitude of the Israeli forces is completely unjustified,” she emphasized.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi has countered by saying that the real problem is that Hezbollah terrorists are exploiting positions surrounding UNIFIL outposts. 

Israel has called on the UN peacekeepers to leave while accusing UNIFIL of allowing Hezbollah to relentlessly bombard northern Israel with missiles from territory under its watch. Meloni meanwhile also unveiled plans to soon visit Lebanon.

As for whether arms embargos on Israel will grow among European countries, Frances is currently in embroiled in a public spat with Israeli leadership. Top German leaders have also of late blocked the sale of weapons to Israel.

https://twitter.com/MayadeenEnglish/status/1846459460073431329

The German government has insisted that there is no official arms embargo in effect. Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently vowed that more weapons will be sent to Tel Aviv soon.

However, Politico has highlighted: “Arms export decisions are approved by the Federal Security Council made up of senior ministers. Bild reported that Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock — Green politicians who are in governing coalition with Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats — withheld approval for arms exports in the council pending assurances from Israel that it would not use German weapons in a genocide.”

end

RUSSIA/CHINA USA/

Robert H

October haunting and warnings

“With every day affairs, it is difficult take time to look over the horizon to see what is coming. And to lose sight of what is on the horizon is a sure way to find unannounced events that cause the day to day affairs to be altered without a time or thought to reaction. Reactive response is not as good as predicative response to up coming events. Simply because one has time to reflective and prepare. It is the way in business and in personal affairs. 

Each day this month the horizon sight lines are changing to paint a very colored picture of what lies ahead.

 Yesterday President Putin and Chinese President Xi  have just signed a “partnership pact.”

Russia agreed to support China’s goals in Taiwan. China agreed to support Russia’s goals in Ukraine. Jointly they condemned the United States. 

Earlier in the week, Germany announced that they were reducing their aid to Ukraine. Today France announced that they will fall short on their 3Billion Euro commitment this year to Ukraine. Meanwhile Poland sees itself fit to take on Russia to take over from a falling Ukraine. One imagines that not being able to take care of domestic needs amidst declining economies has a lot to do with all three announcements. And for anyone to imagine Ukraine could take on Russia even with Western support as a disposable  proxy was always a fool’s errand. 

Are you aware that China, Russia, Iran and North Korea are one block that is coming together to take on the West? Do ponder the military strength of these four parties on a combined basis against what the West can muster. Do you think they aspire to be woke? Are aware that they are prepared to fight Western dominance? Well if you are not looking  over the horizon then do take of Putin said this morning: “The United States is a danger to humanity”.

The BRICS are meeting with others in Kazan, Russia and what comes out this is something to note. Whether it is alternative Currency Settlement System as an alternative to the USD or not; it is clear that the BRICS are sailing away from the West. India and Canada have their own particular spat but India is part of the BRICS and the spat for Canada may well extend beyond. Has anyone considered what China might do to support India? Canada may be in for a rude surprise.

As for the pitiful Victory speech the other day of Zelensky, it is a cruel one for Ukrainians and a guarantee that many more will die a needless death. In the end, the country will cease to exist. It is what happens to proxies of the West. In addition to what Russian troops are already deployed another 100,000 trained troops are underway to the Donbas. So do expect greater advances in territory to come soon. And as for Kursk, it was a complete failure and disaster that should never been. And that should be wake-up for incompetent political leaders to revisit country needs over foreign adventures. “

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXZANDER

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Joe Rogan goes full MOAB in praise for Dr. Peter McCullough (TWC leader) in the Freedom Movement as titular leader, Rogan: “you know what they did to Peter McCullough, Peter McCullough is the most

published doctor in his field in human history, he is not a quack these are the fucking experts, you guys are out of your fucking minds, you saying this is misinformation…tell me what was not true”?

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 16

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SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Slovakia Moves to Ban ‘Dangerous’ Covid ‘Vaccines,’ Declares Pandemic a ‘Fabricated Operation’Top government officials in Slovakia are moving to ban “dangerous” Covid mRNA shots from the country after an explosive investigation determined that the pandemic was a “fabricated operation” and the “vaccines” were a resulting “act of bioterrorism.”READ MORE

Doctor Drops Bombshell: ‘Blinking Lights’ Found in Blood of Covid-VaccinatedA doctor has made an astonishing announcement after reportedly discovering “blinking lights” and “self-assembling microchips” in the blood of people who have received Covid mRNA “vaccines.”READ MORE

27-Year-Old Paramedic Dies Suddenly on DutyA young Missouri paramedic has tragically died suddenly while on duty, according to officials.READ MORE

Joy Reid: ‘Fascist’ Black Male Voters Support Trump Because They’re Threatened by WomenLeftist MSNBC anchor Joy Reid has claimed that black male voters are throwing their support behind President Donald Trump, “despite all the Hitler talk,” because they’re “fascists” too.READ MORE

Trump Scores Rare Victory in Jack Smith’s Jan 6 CaseThe judge in Special Counsel Jack Smith’s January 6 case has granted President Donald Trump a rare victory.READ MORE

Democrats Deploy Michelle Obama, Drag Queens and Leftist Rapper Cardi B in Effort to Resurrect Harris’ CampaignFormer First Lady Michelle Obama is trotting out drag queens and obscene leftist rapper Cardi B as Democrats scramble to resurrect the election campaign of the party’s presidential nominee Kamala Harris.READ MORE

Arkansas Supreme Court Green Lights Ballot Measure to Block CasinoAn Arkansas ballot measure revoking the license for a casino has been given the green light by the state’s Supreme Court.READ MORE

Trump Renews Legal Bid to Move ‘Hush Money’ Case to Federal CourtPresident Donald Trump is making another effort to move his New York “hush money” criminal case to federal court.READ MORE

Kamala Harris Suggests Trump Planning to Put Non-White Americans in ‘Camps’Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris has suggested that non-white Americans should be “scared” that President Donald Trump will round them up and put them in “camps” if he’s re-elected next month.READ MORE

Bloomberg Editor Blasts Kamala Harris for Refusing ‘Interview About Her Economic Plans’Bloomberg’s Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait has blasted Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris for refusing to sit down for an interview with the outlet.READ MORE

Colorado Man Arrested for Starting Massive WildfireAuthorities in Colorado have arrested a 63-year-old man for starting a massive wildfire that devastated a 7,200-acre area in August.READ MORE

Family of Mom Murdered by Illegal Alien Praises Bill Clinton for Calling Out Biden-Harris Border FailingsThe family of murdered Maryland mother-of-five Rachel Morin has commended Bill Clinton for admitting that the failed border policies of the Biden-Harris administration have led to the deaths of innocent Americans.READ MORE

90% of Americans Want CBS to Release Unedited Kamala Harris ’60 Minutes’ InterviewThe overwhelming majority of American voters say they want CBS News to release the full, unedited “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris after it emerged that the recording had been deceptively edited.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

apan Raises Alarm as Anti-Fertility Drugs Found in Covid ‘Vaccines’Japan has issued a chilling warning to the rest of the world after the nation’s leading scientists have just found anti-fertility drugs hidden in Covid “vaccines.”READ THE FULL REPORT

Watch: Kamala Harris Bombs in Fox News InterviewKamala Harris sat down for a one-on-one interview with Fox News host Bret Baier.READ THE FULL REPORT

Biden-Harris officials now admitting they LIED about Afghan terrorist being vetted who planned Election Day massacreFox News reporter Jacqui Heinrich posted overnight on X that Joe & Kamala’s officials are now admitting that they lied about the Afghan terrorist they let into the country who planned an Election Day massacre.READ THE FULL REPORT

Watch: Arizona Early Voters Shock MSNBC — Not a Single One Says They’re Backing HarrisAs early voting kicks off in Arizona, MSNBC field reporters reveal a surprise for Kamala Harris and her supporters: not a single early voter they interviewed in Mojave County voiced support for Harris.READ THE FULL REPORT

CBS Under Fire Again After Being Caught Editing ‘Live’ Interview with Speaker JohnsonU.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) on Monday accused CBS of running cover for the Biden-Harris administration over its perceived mishandling of recovery efforts in North Carolina which bore the brunt of Hurricane Helene’s wrath two weeks ago.READ THE FULL REPORT

EVOL NEWS

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

7.OIL PRICES/GAS PRICES/OIL ISSUES

EU Energy Ministers Debate Russian Gas Flows As Ukraine Transit Deal Nears End

Energy Ministers Debate Russian Gas Flows As Ukraine Transit Deal Nears End

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Charles Kennedy via OilPrice.com,

• EU ministers are debating alternatives to Russian gas imports as the Ukraine transit deal expires in December 2024.
• Concerns are rising regarding rising Russian LNG imports and the effectiveness of EU sanctions on re-exports.
• Some EU members advocate for stricter LNG reporting and alternatives like Azerbaijan are being discussed, but no concrete solutions are yet agreed upon.

European Union energy ministers are discussing the flows of natural gas from Russia to the EU as the transit deal via Ukraine is nearing its end.

The ministers are also talking about the issue of Russia’s LNG shipments to the bloc, which have been rising in recent months.

The EU’s latest package of sanctions against Russia over its invasion of Ukraine included in June a ban on reloading services of Russian LNG in EU territory for the purpose of transshipment operations to third countries, after a transition period of 9 months. This covers both ship-to-ship transfers and ship-to-shore transfers, as well as re-loading operations, and does not affect import but only re-export to third countries via the EU, the bloc said.

Now several EU member states, including France and Belgium, are calling on the European Commission to propose stricter requirements for reporting LNG import volumes by suppliers and storage companies.

“We have seen in Belgium a doubling of LNG volumes. These are probably destined for security of supply within Europe but we have difficulty implementing this (14th) package that’s why we are calling for a tracking system,” Belgium’s Energy Minister Tinne van der Straeten said, as carried by Reuters.

Regarding remaining pipeline gas flows from Russia to the EU via the Ukraine transit route, Ukraine has already said on several occasions that it would not extend the current gas transit deal which expires on December 31, 2024.

But Slovakia, which continues to receive Russian gas, has said it would like to continue using the route via Ukraine.

EU energy ministers have been discussing replacing Russia with Azerbaijan as a supplier, but there haven’t been many details about how this could work, technically and politically, Bloomberg notes.

The EU is nowhere near an agreement on replacing Russian flows, and a possible deal could even be struck at the 11th hour or early next year, anonymous sources familiar with the discussions told Bloomberg.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0862 UP 0.0004

USA/ YEN 149.55 DOWN 0.001 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.3149 UP .0024

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3780 U 0.0025 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 25 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 33.56 PTS OR 1.05%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 207.75 PTS OR 1.02%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .79%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     MOSTLY GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MOSTLY GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 207.75 PTS OR 1.02%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 33.56 PTS OR 1.05%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.79%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 269.11 POINTS OR 0.69%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2680.40

silver:$31.76

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 103.31 DOWN 9 BASIS POINTS FROM  WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.649%  UP 1 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.956% UP 1 AND 7/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.907 UP 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.401 DOWN 1 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.2025 UP 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES FOR WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0834 DOWN .0024 OR 24 basis points

USA/Japan: 149.76 UP 0.202 OR YEN IS DOWN 20 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.1235 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0025 OR 25 BASIS pts  to 1.3779

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.1214 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1408)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.12 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.956

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 8 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at  4.091% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.376 UP 8 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 3.976 UP 4  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2689.80

SILVER AT 11;00: 31.80

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED UP 56.06 PTS OR 0.67%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 150.58 OR 0.77%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 91.73.22 PTS OR 1.22%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 92.20 OR 0.77%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 378.73 OR 1.09%

WTI Oil price  70.58 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  74.41 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  97.34 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  10/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2085 UP 2 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.1235 UP 2 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.181 UP 7 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.945 UP 5

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0828 DOWN 0.0031 OR 31 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.3012 UP 0.0022 OR 22 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.0910 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.964

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 150.23 UP 0.665 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3800 UP 0.0043 CDN dollar DOWN 43 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.74

Brent OIL:  74.52

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 7 BASIS pts to 4.088

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 4.392%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT  3.976

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.183 UP 6 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.951 UP 5 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 103.62 UP 22 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.14 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  97,40 UP 0 AND  10/100 roubles

GOLD  2,692.00 3:30 PM

SILVER: 31.70 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 161,35 PTS OR 0.37%

NASDAQ UP 16.38 PTS OR 0.08%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 18.97 DOWN .61 PTS OR 3,12%

GLD: $248.63 UP 1.48 OR 0.60%

SLV/ $28,89 DOWN 0.02 OR 0.07%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: 129.28 PTS OR .53%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Gold Hits New Record High; Dollar & Bond Yields Soar On ‘Good’-Data, ‘Trump-Trade’

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 04:00 PM

‘Soft’ (Philly Fed & NAHB) and ‘Hard’ data (Retail Sales, Initial Claims) improved today but manufacturing production shit the bed…

Source: Bloomberg

Ignoring the manufacturing slump, this data reinforced the ‘no landing’ narrative and pushed rate-cut expectations notably (hawkishly) lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Additionally, The Trump Trade has taken hold of the narrative for now…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s Chloe Garber told clients today that Polymarket is priced at 60/40, there is ~1.5% upside to 65/35 odds, and 4% downside to 50/50 odds.

“I think there is a possibility this pair could go to the July highs before the election, but it would require some terrible polls for Kamala Harris, whereas a lot of work has been done.

Clients are betting this direction because a 60/40 market going to 100 delta is still an enticing proposition whereas a coin flip is just hard.”

Importantly, she added that this local Trump trend hasn’t been driven by earnings revisions…revisions have been slightly negative since the end of July, so if 3Q earning season matters, these stocks could get affected. 

Small Caps underperformed today (for a change), but all the majors ended well off their highs of the day. The S&P ended unchanged and Nasdaq marginally higher as The Dow hit another record closing high….

…notably, the Nasdaq outperformance today comes at a key support level relative to Russell 2000…

Source: Bloomberg

…and at the same time, Polymarket sees the odds of a ‘Red Sweep” also soaring…

…which helped send yields soaring on the day, led by the long-end (30Y +10bps). On the week, the short-end remains the laggard…

Source: Bloomberg

…the dollar index continued to charge higher (up 12 of the last 14 days)…

Source: Bloomberg

…and, rather oddly given the dollar’s move, gold surged to yet another new record high. just shy of $2700…

Source: Bloomberg

The last few weeks have been very unusual with the correlation between the dollar and gold spiking dramatically…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin limped slightly lower on the day after topping $68,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices went nowhere for the second day in a row with WTI trading in a very narrow $70-71 range…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, stocks are aggressively pricing in a ‘Trump victory’ versus a ‘Harris victory’…

Source: Bloomberg

While it is ‘easy’ to manipulate the noisy and game-able prediction markets (given their low liquidity), it is arguable that the various stocks in these baskets from Goldman Sachs are ‘game-able’, suggesting there is more than just a whale or two driving this sentiment narrative.

MORNING TRADING/

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

Retail Sales ‘Reality Check’: This Was The Biggest Positive September Seasonal-Adjustment Ever!

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 08:45 AM

As we warned in our preview last night, the almost omniscient folk at BofA warned, ‘brace’ for a blowout retail sales print this morning, forecasting a huge 0.8% MoM rise in spending (well above the 0.2% consensus) all due to seasonal adjustments.

BofA was mostly right with all the retail sales cohorts coming in hot – headline +0.4% (+0.3% exp), ex-autos +0.5% MoM (+0.1% exp), and most notably the control group (which flows into the GDP calc) +0.7% MoM (+0.3% exp).

Headline retail sales MoM beat was not enough top keep the YoY print improving as it dropped to +1.7% YoY – the weakest since January…

Source: Bloomberg

On an unadjusted basis, Retail sales fell a shocking 7.5% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

This was the biggest positive September seasonal adjustment in history…

Source: Bloomberg

In case it’s hard to see above… how do you know it’s an election year (and Dem support is waning over a bifurcated economy or haves and have-nothings)…

However, Core retail sales rose 4.0% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Spending at Gas stations and Furniture Stores fell on a MoM basis while Food Services and Food & Beverage Stores spending jumped most…

Source: Bloomberg

On an unadjusted basis, retail sales were flat (0.0%) YoY which means (roughly speaking) real retail sales were down notably on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

So, take your pick – is retail spending ‘hot’ or is inflation eating into personal incomes more than many think?

END

Initial Jobless Claims Drop As Storm Impact Fades

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 08:55 AM

After last week’s storm- and strike-driven surge in initial jobless claims, the headline data slipped back from 260k (revised higher) to 241k…

Source: Bloomberg

On an unadjusted basis, initial claims remain high (but off their highs) while continuing claims pushed higher from 1.858mm Americans to 1.867mm Americans…

Source: Bloomberg

The impact of Hurricane Helene (North Carolina) will continue to be felt…

Presumably, this does not include the impact of Milton???

Source: Bloomberg

But analysts expect that to fade as all that lovely money from FEMA flows into the local economy (oh wait…).

And WTF is going on in Michigan? It appears those Stellantis layoffs were ‘transitory’…

In other words, ignore the jump in jobless claims this close to an election, it’s just transitory…

END

this is the most important data point to pay attention to:

(zerohedge)

US Manufacturing Output Plunged In September

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 09:28 AM

US Manufacturing contracted 0.4% MoM in September (dramatically worse than the 0.1% decline expected). This dragged Manufacturing output down 0.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

This helped drag US Industrial Production down 0.3% MoM and -0.6% YoY (the weakest since April) as August’s print was revised down…

Source: Bloomberg

A strike by aircraft machinists held down industrial production by an estimated 0.3%, while the effects of hurricanes Helene and Francine subtracted a similar amount, the Fed said.

Production of aerospace equipment tumbled 8.3% during the month.

And this is all happening as Capacity Utilization tumbles to 77.5%

Source: Bloomberg

Mining and energy extraction slid 0.6%, while output at utilities increased for the first time in three months.

Does that looking a ‘no landing’ economy? Or is it all ‘transitory’ too?

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Kamala crashes!

Disaster: Kamala.exe Crashes In Fox Interview Meltdown

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 07:25 PM

Kamala Harris appeared in a Fox News interview with Bret Baier Wednesday night, where she alternated between deflection, blame, and then had a complete meltdown when shown a clip of Donald Trump (full interview here).

For starters, when asked if she would take responsibility for the flood of illegal immigrants after she and Joe Biden ripped up Trump’s executive orders on immigration on day one, Harris spat out a well-work Democrat talking point about ‘Trump killing a bill’ that would have saved the day. Baier – a NeverTrumper who deserves credit for this one – pushed back.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846675741871649272

 As Fox‘s Bill Melugin points out, the Democrat bill “would have given pathway to amnesty to millions of illegal immigrants and it failed despite Democrats controlling the White House & Congress.”

https://twitter.com/BillMelugin_/status/1846674180647145557

Kamala.exe Bluescreens

When asked to explain why more than 70% of people say the country is on the wrong track.

“That track follows three-and-a-half years of you being vice president and President Biden being president. That is what they’re saying. 79 percent of them. If you’re turning the page – you’re been in office for three-and-a-half years…“

To which Harris offered the strangest answer yet – “And Donald Trump has been running for office…”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846680688189161605

Kamala Enraged!

When shown a clip of Trump denying he would ‘turn the American military on the American people,’ Harris went ballistic…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846682263448134114

Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro and a few hundred J6 protesters would like to have a word about weaponized government…

Word Salad On The Menu

What did you expect? Kamala simply can’t answer questions…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846685464209531225

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846685455292498038

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846673824642699543

According to Baier and others, not only did Harris show up late for the interview, her staff was desperate to end the interview…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846690729264861296

https://twitter.com/Michele_Tafoya/status/1846685878141247681

https://twitter.com/JDVance/status/1846686774543921559

END

VENEZUELAN GANGS/TEXAS

Venezuelan Prison Gang Seizes Multiple Apartment Buildings In Texas

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 09:20 PM

A new shocking report has found that Venezuelan transnational gang Tren de Aragua has taken over at least four apartment building complexes in San Antonio, Texas, as thousands of its illegal alien gangsters run amok nationwide, sparking crime and chaos from Colorado to Texas to New York City. Many of the members of the armed migrant prison gang invaded the nation through Biden-Harris’ open southern borders.  

DailyMail revealed: 

A dangerous Venezuelan gang has taken over at least four apartment complexes in San Antonio, Texas, as it expands its reach in yet another America city, DailyMail.com can reveal.

The report confirmed that Palatia Apartments was one apartment complex where TdA members were operating out. This complex was the scene of a recent raid… 

Just last week a small army of police officers raided an apartment complex in San Antonio and arrested 19 individuals – including four gang members.

Law enforcement sources confirmed TdA had been operating at the Palatia Apartments for five to six months – squatting in empty units they either rented out to other migrants, used as a base to deal cocaine or, most horrifically, as prostitution dens to pimp out women and children.

But now DailyMail.com can reveal that this apartment invasion is just the tip of the iceberg in the major southern Texas city, with at least three other rental properties also occupied by the criminal organization. 

While Palatia Apartments was one complex full of TdA members, the other three buildings were not named in the report because of ongoing police investigations. 

https://twitter.com/i/status/1844018232975294572

https://twitter.com/i/status/1843301972881117327

https://twitter.com/i/status/1842915425639665898

https://twitter.com/i/status/1846093967525298354

TdA’s activity in San Antonio comes after armed gangsters from the same prison group terrorized the Denver suburb of Aurora last month. This area is a sanctuary city run by far-left Democrats.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1845117320739316132

The US Army warned in leaked documents that as many as 5,000 TdA members have invaded the nation, many of which are armed.

DailyMail noted that TdA’s command and control center shifted north to just below the US border in the Mexican town of Ciudad Juarez. The armed group is rapidly expanding turf nationwide. This may ignite gang warfare with native US gangs.

In recent weeks, police sources told the NYPost that TdA was recruiting their members and victims straight out of NYC-run migrant shelters. 

In the Big Apple, Tren de Aragua is trying to recruit foot soldiers to force women into sex trafficking — in the hopes that it will become a main source of income for the gang, according to the leaked memo. -NYPost

This is shocking…

https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1846633489749225649

Only made possible by. 

‘We did it, Joe!’ … 

Democrats are importing the third world into the first world – this only means the situation will worsen.

END

10 Signs That The Economy Is A Giant Mess As The Election Approaches

Wednesday, Oct 16, 2024 – 07:15 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

The health of the economy has been a major determining factor in many past presidential elections, and the health of the economy is certainly going to have an enormous influence on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.  In fact, according to a poll that was just released by Rasmussen the economy is the number one issue by a wide margin for voters in the ultra-important swing state of Pennsylvania.  

Unfortunately for the Democrats, most Americans are not pleased with how the economy is performing, and it appears that conditions are now taking another turn for the worse.  

The following are 10 signs that the economy is a giant mess as the election approaches…

#1 The number of Americans filing first time claims for unemployment benefits just hit the highest level in over a year…

The number of people filing for unemployment for the first time was at its highest levels in more than a year, partly due to storm damage and labor stoppages.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending Oct. 5 came in at 258,000, up 33,000 from last week’s level of 225,000, and the highest since it hit the same level in August 2023, data from the Labor Department shows.

#2 According to Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report, the percentage of middle-income households that “rate their personal financial situation negatively” has hit the highest level that they have ever recorded…

Primerica’s latest Financial Security Monitor report for the third quarter found 55% of middle-income households now rate their personal financial situation negatively, a 6-point jump from the previous survey.

“For the first time in a year, a majority of middle-income households are feeling negative about their personal finances,” said Glenn Williams, CEO of Primerica. “In fact, this latest report represents the highest negative rating we’ve seen since we began fielding the survey exactly four years ago.”

#3 I am old enough to remember a time in this country when you were set for life if you had a million dollars.  Unfortunately, thanks to our endless cost of living crisis it now costs 4.4 million dollars to live “the American Dream” over the course of a lifetime…

You can live the American Dream, but it will cost you.

The lifetime tab for such aspirations as owning a home, driving new cars, raising kids and taking annual vacations comes to a cool $4.4 million, according to Investopedia, the financial media site.

That’s more than the average American earns in a lifetime.

#4 The company that produces more french fries than anyone else in North America is cutting production and laying off workers due to a dramatic slowdown in consumer demand…

Lamb Weston, the largest producer of french fries in North America and a major supplier to fast-food chains, restaurants and grocery stores, is closing a production plant in Washington state. The company announced last week that it would lay off nearly 400 employees, or 4% of its workforce, and temporarily cut production lines in response to slowing customer demand.

#5 At one time Boeing was flying high, but now it has decided to lay off approximately 10 percent of its entire workforce…

The CEO of Boeing told employees late Friday that the company plans to cut 10% of its total staff “over the coming months.”

“Our business is in a difficult position, and it is hard to overstate the challenges we face together,” said Kelly Ortberg, who started at CEO of the troubled aircraft maker two months ago and has been dealing with a strike by 33,000 hourly workers for half his time on the job.

#6 The banking industry continues to deeply struggle.  So far this year, banks in the United States have permanently shut down over 700 local branches…

US banks closed more than 700 branches in the first nine months of the year, forcing thousands to travel further to access vital services.

Bank of America closed the most locations of any bank, shuttering 132 between January and September.

U.S. Bank followed swiftly behind, having closed 101 of their own branches.

#7 After 75 years, True Value has been forced to file for bankruptcy and will be “selling substantially all of its operations to a rival”…

True Value, a 75-year old hardware store brand, has filed for bankruptcy and is selling substantially all of its operations to a rival, the company announced Monday.

In a press release, True Value said it will continue day-to-day operations of selling hardware and other homeware tools to its 4,500 independently operated locations during the Chapter 11 process, which includes a $153 million stalking horse bid from rival company Do it Best.

#8 Did you ever think that you would live to see a day when hundreds of 7-Eleven stores would be closing?  Sadly, that time has now arrived…

Several hundred “underperforming” 7-Eleven locations across North America are closing, the convenience store announced.

Seven & I Holdings, the chain’s Japan-based parent company, revealed in an earnings report Thursday that 444 locations of 7-Eleven are shutting down because of a variety of issues, including slowing sales, declining traffic, inflationary pressures and a decrease in cigarette purchases.

#9 Home Depot apparently believes that rough times are ahead, because they are dumping millions of square feet of warehouse space…

Home Depot is hastily exiting warehouse space, to the tune of 3.2 million square feet in a month, according to Bisnow.

Since late August, Home Depot has put up nearly 4 million square feet of warehouse space for sublease, including a 1.3M SF Phoenix warehouse and a 1.1M SF distribution center in the Inland Empire, according to CoStar Analytics.

#10 At this point, things are so bad that even Disney is laying off workers…

According to sources cited by Deadline, Disney is pushing ahead with new layoffs as part of a broader “cost-saving initiative.” About 300 employees across Disney’s corporate divisions will be impacted this week.

The layoffs of 300 employees began on Tuesday and will continue until the end of the week. They are all US-based employees who work across the company’s corporate operations, including legal, HR, finance, and communications.

If you have recently lost your job, I feel very badly for you, because the employment market has gotten a lot more “complicated” than it was in the old days.

Once upon a time, being good at what you do was enough.

But now other considerations are often more important than pure merit…

A top Oregon state official has been put on administrative leave after a pink-haired, DEI-obsessed subordinate complained he was making hiring decisions based on qualifications instead of personal identity considerations, according to a report.

Mike Shaw, who until recently served as the Oregon Department of Forestry’s second-in-command, was put on blast by Megan Donecker, the department’s former DEI strategy officer, for looking “beyond gender and identity in hiring, seeking only candidates most qualified for the job,” OregonLive reported.

He was formally placed on administrative leave Aug. 6 after Donecker filed a formal complaint, according to the Daily Mail.

Isn’t that nuts?

Our society is getting crazier with each passing day, and I am deeply concerned about where all of this is heading.

Sadly, the tough economic times that we are experiencing now are not even worth comparing to the pain that is coming if we don’t turn things around.

Our system is literally crumbling right in front of our eyes, and unless something dramatic happens economic conditions in this country will soon become extremely harsh.

*  *  *

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

KING REPORT

The King Report October 17, 2024 Issue 7350

Independent View of the News

Stealth Edit: FBI Quietly Revises Violent Crime Stats When the FBI originally released the “final” crime data for 2022 in September 2023, it reported that the nation’s violent crime rate fell by 2.1%. This quickly became, and remains, a Democratic Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.     But the FBI has quietly revised those numbers, releasing new data that shows violent crime increased in 2022 by 4.5%. The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.  The Bureau – which has been at the center of partisan storms – made no mention of these revisions in its September 2024 press release… https://t.co/v1ggzwwnhp   @ClayTravis: The FBI updated their national crime data — without any announcement — adding 80,000 more violent crimes, including over 1,000 more murders. At the debate when Trump said the FBI crime data was unreliable, ABC News “factchecked” him with this “data.”   @WesternLensman: Three weeks before an election — and after the debates — FBI revises their crime statistics — showing crime increased by 4.5% in 2022 instead of dropping 2.1%. Here is ABC’s David Muir “fact checking” Trump in front of millions of viewers with lies that will never be retracted. (DJT fact checks Muir, claiming FBI stats are fraudulent because the worst cities’ stats were omitted.) https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1846555965065146688   Just like they do with US economic data, the Deep and/or Administrative State fudges crime data for political purposes (interfere in elections) – and their barking seals in the media clap along! Ya think the polls are inducing some FBI potentates to come clean?  Beaucoup Dems and their media stooges should be chagrined and embarrassed – but they won’t be due to TDS.   Bank of Japan policymaker calls for ‘very moderate’ pace of rate hikes The Bank of Japan must raise interest rates at a “very moderate” pace and avoid hiking prematurely, its policymaker Seiji Adachi said on Wednesday, warning that further yen rises and slowing global demand may weigh on inflation and wage growth… https://t.co/QuR1WvaoGN   ASML CEO Sees Slow Chip Recovery Extending ‘Well into 2025’ – BBG 10:13 ET   ESZs sank when they opened on Tuesday night.  After hitting a daily low of 5835.25 three minutes after the open (17:00 ET), aggressive buying on Adachi’s ‘very moderate’ rate hike pace statement pushed ESZs to 5864.25 at 18:59 ET.  ESZs then plodded higher until they hit 5869.00 at 0:07 ET.  Traders then liquidated into the Nikkei close.    A slow decline ensued; it accelerated after the 3 ET European opening.  ESZs hit a bottom of 5855.75 at 3:23 ET.  After a bounce to 5866.50 at 4:02 ET, ESZs retreated modestly and traded sideways until a rally materialized after the 7 ET US repo market opening.   A modest rally ended at 7:56 ET with ESZs at 5869.00.  After a slow rollover, ESZs broke lower when the NYSE opened.  ESZs sank to 5853.25 at 9:52 ET.  However, as we warned, someone wanted to halt the downside momentum and negative psychology.  So, impact trading took ESZs to a daily high of 5875.50 at 10:27 ET.  The manipulation did NOT trigger momentum buying.  So, astute traders unloaded; ESZs tumbled to 5858.50 at 10:41 ET.   Wednesday’s King Report: ASML shocked AI uber bulls.  If selling appears in AI-related stocks today, the dreaded momentum selling could appear.  The usual suspects will try to halt the decline and change market psychology.  Prudent traders will be cautious and wait for the market to tell a clearer story.   After a spirited rebound to 5873.00 at 11:41, abetted by the manipulation for the European close, ESZs fell to 5864.25 at 11:55 ET.  A Noon Balloon took ESZs to 5880.50 at 13:00 ET.  After a modest retreat, the afternoon rally pushed ESZs to a daily high of 5892.75 at 14:32 ET.  After a modest retreat, ESZs did a tedious rollover into the NYSE close.   Fangs were soft again on Wednesday due to ASML CEO’s above negative remark.   @BrianDahleCA: Phillips 66 announced plans to stop operations at its CA refinery next year. This will cut over 8% of California’s gasoline supply and comes just days after Democrats in Sacramento voted in support of Newsom’s bill to go after oil companies. With lower fuel supplies, prices are bound to go up, forcing Californians into public transit.   Positive aspects of previous session The DJIA and DJTA rallied sharply. USZs were +7/32 at the NYSE close.   Negative aspects of previous session Fangs were soft all session, which weighed on Nasdaq and the S&P 500 Index Gold rallied moderately; oil and gasoline rallied modestly.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are defensive asset allocators returned to the sideline?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5832.44 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5846.52; 5808.34   @visegrad24: Netanyahu hits back at Macron after Macron said “Netanyahu mustn’t forget that his country was created by a UN decision.” Netanyahu responded today by telling Macron that Israel was founded by Holocaust survivors “including from the [Nazi collaborationist] Vichy regime in France.”   @TFTC21: Trump’s election odds surge to 60.1%, gaining 4.5%. Harris trails at 39.9%.  Momentum is shifting, will this trend hold through Election Day? https://t.co/d7KEJRzHsE   Druckenmiller Says Market Is ‘Very Convinced’ Trump Will Win – BBG “You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto, you can even see it in DJT.”…   Politico: Biden raises pressure on Israel as war undercuts Harris “Biden is a lame duck president, and there’s only so much he can do…” https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/16/biden-pressure-israel-harris-00183797   Pennsylvania Dems rip Harris campaign just weeks before election: ‘AWOL,’ ‘Being out-messaged’ https://trib.al/m7L5wT2   Due to severe backlash and illegality, Team Obama-Harris tells the WSJ ‘Kamala Harris’s Agenda for Black Men’ Will Be open to All…  https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1846643701415858549/photo/1   A perturbed Obama’s animated conversation with a bewildered Biden at Ethel Kennedy’s funeral: https://x.com/akarl_smith/status/1846605651654455485   Eagle-eyed viewers speculate what Obama was saying to Biden in VERY tense conversation at Ethel Kennedy’s funeral – I couldn’t make out what Biden uttered to Obama, but the beginning of the reply from Obama was, “Nope, nope … (he nods his head, no, and then says) it’s gone.”  The look on Obamas face is ominous, and Biden’s look is one of shock … and “slick Willie” trying to eves drop … https://x.com/ClarissasDad215/status/1846625946721493320   @greg_price11: Bill Clinton at Ethel Kennedy’s funeral: “I thought your mother was the cat’s meow. She would flirt with me in the most innocent ways…”    https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1846625197119754417   Various political pundits note that Team Obama-Harris is going scorched Earth negative on Trump because they cannot run on Kamala’s record or against Trump’s record.  So, it’s back to Trump is Hitler, a threat to democracy, unfit and unstable.  Unfortunately for Harris, DJT has a verifiable record!   Kamala Harris’s interview with Fox’s Bret Baier was an unmitigated disaster.  It was clear from the beginning that Harris intended to avoid answering any question and would instead spout long-winded campaign talking points and slogan verbatim from her ads.    Team Obama-Harris thought they were getting 25 minutes of campaign ads for free.  Harris invariably injected Trump is horrible in every answer and said, ‘you can go to my website for my policies.’   Kamala Harris repeatedly pivots to Trump when grilled on immigration record in Fox News interview   https://www.foxnews.com/media/kamala-harris-repeatedly-pivots-trump-when-grilled-immigration-record-fox-news-interview   Brett: “When did you first noticed that President Biden acuity appeared diminished?”  Kamala: “Joe Biden is not on the ballot.  Donald Trump is…” https://x.com/WhiteRabbitJedi/status/1846681259776659598   @TrumpWarRoom: Baier: You said Iran was the biggest threat to America… But you relaxed and failed to enforce sanctions on Iran. Kamala: “Let’s go back to Donald Trump who pulled out of the deal…” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1846682342141882437   @JDHaltigan: Harris is utterly bewildered…. has no answers. Looks like she might break down at times.   @EricLDaugh: Bret Baier just said that “they” keep telling him to wrap up his interview.  He was constantly looking to the side and nodding his head as things got worse – ESPECIALLY when Israel was brought up. They kept telling him to cut it out… that’s how bad it was. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1846679966617940426   @KanekoaTheGreat: Kamala Harris’s team scrambles to cut Bret Baier short as he presses her on Israel and the nearly $100 billion the Biden-Harris administration funneled to Iran. Baier repeatedly glances off-camera, saying: “They’re wrapping me very hard here. I hope you got to say what you wanted to say about Donald Trump.  There are a lot of things that people want to learn about you and your policies…”  She only lasted 25 minutes facing real questions.  https://x.com/KanekoaTheGreat/status/1846685167009911005   @CollinRugg: Bret Baier says there were 4 Kamala Harris staffers waving their hands back and forth to stop the interview. “I’m talking like four people waving their hands like it’s gotta stop.” “I had to dismount there at the end.”  https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1846693865564364801   @GrageDustin: I’m told that Kamala’s handlers made her cut the interview 15 mins short. (A Fox reporter said Harris was 15 minutes late for the interview.)   That Fox News Interview May Have Done to Kamala What the Debate Did to Biden https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/16/that-fox-news-interview-may-have-done-to-kamala-what-the-debate-did-to-biden/   Daily Mail: Social media explodes after Kamala Harris’ ‘total trainwreck’ interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier https://trib.al/hjPgw8z   @TrumpWarRoom: OUR NEWEST AD JUST DROPPED (Entire Fox-Harris interview) https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1846694328137077032   Disaster: Kamala.exe Crashes in Fox Interview Meltdown https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disaster-kamalaexe-crashes-fox-interview-meltdown#google_vignette   @JackPosobiec: Hearing staff aren’t even trying to talk to Kamala right now. And aren’t planning to all night. They know better by now when she gets like this.      Hearing Kamala’s team thought Baier would give her a friendly interview bc he’s a Bush-era guy who secretly hates Trump.   Babylon Bee: Democrats Wondering If It’s Too Late to Go Back to Joe Biden https://buff.ly/4f6MNzh   Today – As we keep harping, traders, operators, and some investors will continue to pour into stocks for the earnings season rally and perhaps a GOP sweep in November.  The equity rally, barring unexpected bad news, should continue until Apple reports on Halloween.   ESZs are -8.50; NQZs are -35.50; and USZs are -7/32 at 20:50 ET.   Expected impact earnings: TRV 3.63, NFLX 5.12   Expected econ data and events: Sept Retail Sales 0.3% m/m, Ex-Autos 0.2%, Ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; Oct Phil Fed Business Outlook 3.0; Initial Jobless Claims 260k, Continuing Claims 1.865m; Sept Industrial Production -0.1% m/m, Mfg. Production -0.1%, Capacity Utilization 77.8%; Aug Business Inventories 0.3% m/m; Oct NAHB Housing Markt Index 42; Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 11:00 ET   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5619; 100-day MA: 5533; 150-day MA: 5412; 200-day MA: 5295 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,367; 100-day MA: 40,403; 150-day MA: 39,902; 200-day MA: 39,512 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5842,47 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5434.12 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5756.74 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5816.78 triggers a sell signal   And just like that, the Kamala Harris plagiarism scandal has vanished.  Liberal privilege again! ‘ABSOLUTELY NOT’: Rapper scorches VP Harris and people trying to ‘shame’ him to vote for the Democratic presidential nominee. Why he’s considering voting for Trump instead.    Lord Jamar, a rapper, producer, and actor from shows like “The Sopranos,” scorched Vice President Kamala Harris and her supporters during a recent interview and instead praising former President Trump’s leadership…. “This woman, to me, is not qualified to run, you know, a Dunkin’ Donuts or a 7-Eleven, let alone the corporation that we call the United States of America,” Jamar, a founding member of Brand Nubian, said in an interview with “The Art of Dialogue” on Saturday…  https://t.co/2hXm3ZMCDC   @TrumpWarRoom: BET: “Let us know why it’s so important to vote for you?” KAMALA: “There’s a lot of misinformation out there … When you vote, you actually have the ability to determine the future.” Profound. https://t.co/QFjQvoqGiH   @SystemUpdate_: “I think it’s just another insult from the Democratic party. Their message to Black men essentially was smoke some weed, invest in crypto, and shut up.”  @SocialistMMA, co-founder of @RevBlackNetwork, on Kamala’s agenda for Black men: https://x.com/SystemUpdate_/status/1846561391819276443   @EndWokeness: Trump: I will protect black jobs from the impacts of mass illegal immigration. Media: RAAAAAAACIST! Kamala: To win back black voters, I’m proposing free money and drugs. Media: SO INCLUSIVE!   Biden surfaced on Tuesday to bash Trump and gloat over his convictions.  However, his catatonic stare and feebleness overshadowed the message.  https://x.com/theblaze/status/1846348400822047208   Biden’s Bizarre Blunders: Campaigns For Kamala with a Series of Gaffes Biden’s delivery appeared to be lacking, and at one point, he mistakenly attempted to criticize Trump. “She beat Trump so badly in the debate, he’s scared to death to beat her again!” he shouted, a line that seemed to confuse some attendees… This moment has raised questions about Biden’s current state and the extent to which Harris has managed public perceptions of his capabilities over the years. https://www.lifezette.com/2024/10/bidens-bizarre-blunders-campaigns-for-kamala-with-a-series-of-gaffes-watch/     @EndWokeness: Kamala: “Trump will use the DOJ to target his opponents. Dictators do that.” Who wants to tell her? https://t.co/uyNRty4lzH   @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala, who routinely ignores the constitutional rights of Americans (and the Supreme Court): “We remember and reflect on what that moment was, knowing that leading up to that, that work to write, to compose the Constitution of the United States, that work was not easy!” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1846642427157008892   With the Obama and other gambits blowing up, Harris is back to claiming DJT is unfit and too unstable to be POTUS.  This invites criticism of Harris’ enabling of Biden’s senility and Harris’s mental acuity.   @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala has absolutely no idea what she’s talking about (part ∞): “Do you support the letter the admin sent Israel threatening legal action over military aid?” KAMALA: “I’ve issued my statement.” “Are you supporting calling off military aid if the situation in Gaza does not improve?” KAMALA: “I don’t believe that’s what the letter said.” “What kind of legal action do you support?” KAMALA: “We’ll take it one step at a time.”  https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1846592057193689311   @TrumpWarRoom: Tampon Tim: “I know guns. I’m a veteran, I’m a hunter, I’m a gun owner. I know most of these are cosplaying like they know guns.” Elmer Fudd over here couldn’t even load his gun during his photo op pheasant hunt. https://t.co/0hYyHiIeQD   ‘Fake’ Donald Trump supporters in Swastika t-shirts get instant karma at Florida MAGA boat parade – ‘Dirty Dems doing their usual plants,’ said another, while many people referred to the men as ‘feds.’ … https://t.co/kFClJYBW9D   @libsoftiktok: Hey @IDOT_Illinois, care to explain why your workers are stealing Trump signs? https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1846272927240802734?s=02   Babylon Bee: ABC News Argues 9/11 Overblown as It Was ‘Only a Handful of Buildings’ https://buff.ly/3YqDrsK   Paramount boss Shari Redstone wants more conservatives on CBS, slams network’s Israel coverage: report https://trib.al/5GdRIgP   CBS accused of ‘significant and intentional news distortion’ in FCC complaint over ’60 Minutes’ edit  https://www.foxnews.com/media/cbs-accused-significant-intentional-news-distortion-fcc-complaint-over-60-minutes-edit   Dimwitted TikTokker tore down Greek flags at NJ restaurant thinking they were Israeli: ‘My bad’ https://trib.al/E6uVPcS   How voters’ loathing of ‘Bidenomics’ could cost Kamala Harris the White House The NBC News poll found voters view the word ‘Bidenomics’ negatively by a two-to-one ratio.  Just 22 percent view the term positively while 46 percent view it negatively… (We warned about this years ago.) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13967817/voters-biden-economics-kamala-harris-election-2024.html   The regime media over the past several days have interviewed myriad black men about why they support Trump and dislike Harris.  The most prevalent answers are: We did better under Trump; he has a record.  Harris is phony; she cannot be trusted.

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT:

If Trump Wins, Guess Who Will Be In Charge Of Certifying The Election?

Thursday, Oct 17, 2024 – 03:05 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via TheMostImportantNews.com,

Do you know who will be in charge of certifying this election?  In January 2021, it was Vice-President Mike Pence, and we all remember how that turned out.  Well, an even more interesting scenario is shaping up this time around.  In January 2025, Vice-President Kamala Harris will be in charge of certifying the election.  In other words, if Donald Trump wins the person that he was running against will be in charge of certifying his victory.  This is a major defect in our system, and it could potentially set the stage for widespread chaos if things do not go smoothly.

With each passing day, a Trump victory is looking even more likely.

For example, a brand new Gallup survey has found that the percentage of Americans that identify as Republicans has jumped by four points since late September…

With just 20 days left until Election Day, a new Gallup poll has revealed a concerning trend for Democrats.

According to the poll, more Americans are identifying as Republicans or independents, with fewer calling themselves Democrats. Conducted from October 1-12, the poll shows a significant shift in political affiliations since mid-September, causing potential challenges for Democrats ahead of the crucial vote.

The data shows that 31% of respondents now identify as Republicans, marking a 4-point increase from the previous poll conducted in late September. Meanwhile, only 28% of Americans consider themselves Democrats, a 3-point drop over the same period. The number of independents, while still holding a significant share at 41%, dropped by 1%.

Another new survey shows that national support for Trump has risen dramatically since early August…

The presidential race is swinging in former President Donald Trump’s direction, according to a national poll released by Marquette.

The latest survey shows both Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tied with 50 percent support each in a two-way race with leaners included. This reflects a four-point swing in Trump’s direction, as the last poll — released August 1 — showed Harris up by four points, garnering 52 percent support to Trump’s 48 percent support.

The survey also took a look at the results with a “full field” and found Harris up by a single percentage point — 48 percent to Trump’s 47 percent support. Another four percent said “other.” For greater perspective, the last survey showed Harris up by eight points in the full field, with 50 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.

Right now we are seeing so much enthusiasm for Trump, and the same cannot be said for Harris.

When MSNBC visited one early voting location in Arizona, they could not find a single person that voted for Harris…

MSNBC visits an early voting location in Arizona.

Trump voters are everywhere — ‘We did not find a single person who would tell us they voted for Kamala Harris.’

Things are not looking very good for the Harris campaign at this stage.

If she loses, she will literally be tasked with certifying the election that she has just lost…

The vice president oversees the counting of Electoral College votes and announces the results. They can still do this if they are a presidential candidate and it’s happened multiple times throughout history.

Both the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution and federal law say the president of the Senate, which is a role that’s filled by the vice president, oversees the count of electoral votes.

According to Politico, Harris has promised that “she won’t interfere” with a peaceful transition of power…

On Jan. 6, 2025, Vice President Kamala Harris is set to preside over Congress and count the electoral votes that will make either her — or Donald Trump — the 47th president of the United States.

And like her predecessor Mike Pence, who resisted enormous pressure from Trump to upend the 2020 election results, Harris says she won’t interfere.

Hopefully that is true.

But would she really just stand aside and hand the presidency to a man that she has described as a “threat to democracy”?

Just consider what Harris said about Trump earlier this week…

“A second Trump term is a huge risk for America. He is increasingly unstable and unhinged. And he is out for unchecked power and control over your lives”

If she truly believes that Trump is going to end democracy in the United States, wouldn’t she feel compelled to take action?

That is a question that a lot of people will be asking.

Already, many on the left are suggesting that the 14th Amendment could be used to block Trump from taking office.

The following is what Section 3 of the 14th Amendment says…

No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

I really hope that Democrats do not consider such a course of action if Trump wins the election.

And I really hope that we see a very peaceful transfer of power no matter who wins.

Unfortunately, many of our leaders continue to make statements that are not helpful at all.

For example, Joe Biden just said that he is very much looking forward to seeing Donald Trump get sentenced and put away…

Joe Biden said the quiet part out loud and admitted that his DOJ is working to jail Trump after the election.

“The same guy who has three other major cases waiting for him when he loses,” Biden said referring to Jack Smith’s federal cases against Trump.

“And by the way, 34 felonies,” Biden said after he sent his DOJ hatchetman Matthew Colangelo to New York to get Trump.

“He got the sentence kicked back, but I want to watch that sentence,” Biden gleefully said hoping Trump is jailed.

If Donald Trump loses this election, he is going to go to prison for the rest of his life.

So the truth is that this election means everything to Trump.

Of course this election also means everything to tens of millions of Americans on both sides of the political spectrum.

No matter what the outcome is, I fear that there will be unprecedented chaos in our streets.

Hopefully I am wrong about that.

Hopefully cooler heads will prevail.

But in our current political environment, I am certainly not optimistic about what is ahead.

*  *  *

GREG HUNTER

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