GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $29.40 TO $2716.20

SILVER PRICE DOWN $1.15 TO $33.66

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2717.45

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $33.67

Bitcoin morning price:$66,463 down 1074 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $66004 DOWN 1533 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN $12.80 TO $1019.30

Palladium price; DOWN 21.40 TO $1060.95

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3761.08 DOWN 34.21 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,797.70 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 22 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2102.65 DOWN 14.05 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2110.33 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 22/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,519.64 DOWN 24.12 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2.544/58 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 22 //.2024)

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EXCHANGE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,744.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/22/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 10/24/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 12
661 C JP MORGAN 4
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 11 1
905 C ADM 11 3
991 H CME 7

---

TOTAL: 26 26

---

JPMorgan stopped 0/26

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 26 NOTICES FOR 2600 OZ  or  0.0808 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,566 contracts for 1,256,,600 Oz (39.085 tonnes)

FOR  OCT

SILVER NOTICES:68 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 340,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1426 for 7.130 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD..

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.15 AT THE SLV

SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.861 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4252 CONTRACTS TO 157,264 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUMONGOUS GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.93 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 6032 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE GAIN OF $0.93  IN PRICE. WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY EVEN THOUGH THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE BUT FAILED.. //. WE HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE..  WE HAD A HUGE 1800 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 722 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS 6032 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 722 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.93) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 6232 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE 1800 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ .195 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 7.345 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 7.345 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI)  HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 722 CONTRACTS)/PLUS THAT STUPID ISSUANCE OF .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THURSDAY, OCT 10

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: removed 180 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 16 DAYS, total 12,754 contracts:   OR 63.770 MILLION OZ  (797 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  63.770 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 63.770 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4252  CONTRACTS WITH OUR $0.93 GAIN IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1800 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF  5.355 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 200,000 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 7.345 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 6052 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 722 CONTRACTS ( WILL BE USED FOR TUESDAY’S TRADING),//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION, AS OUR CROOKS COULD NOT CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE AS IT ROSE APPRECIABLY!!

/ ZERO SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE MONDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT   (722) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.

WE HAD 68 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 340,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6316 OI CONTRACTS  TO 573,760 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 1581 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED INCREASE  IN COMEX OI (6316 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $22.15 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO  39.219 TONNES+ + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 60.136 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $22.15 GAIN IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 11,790 OI CONTRACTS (36.67 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON FRIDAY, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 5474 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 573,760

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,790 CONTRACTS  WITH 6316 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5474 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 11,790 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1236 CONTRACTS, WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5474 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 6316 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 13,371 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 20.917 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR.

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 39.219 TONNES.  + 20.917 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 60.136 TONNES

 / 3) ZERO ATTEMPTED T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL AND WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED,

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5)  HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 1236 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 59,850 CONTRACTS OF 5,985,000 OZ OR 185.16 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3740 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  185.16 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  185.16 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.21% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 185.16 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4252 CONTRACTS OI  TO 157,444 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1800 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1800 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1800 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 4452   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1800 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 6052 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 30.24 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.93 GAIN  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.94 PTS OR 0.52%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 261.20 PTS OR 1.27%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 307.10 PTS OR 0.80%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.09%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1291 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1423// Oil DOWN TO 70.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 74.79 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A STRONG SIZED 6316 CONTRACTS TO 573,760 WITH OUR STRONG  GAIN IN PRICE OF $22.15 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5474). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS FIRSTLY ON TUESDAY, OCT 2, WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! WELL, ON THURSDAY, OCT 10 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AT 239 NOTICES OR 23,900 OZ (.7433 TONNES). LAST NIGHT ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 22 -24 2024/. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! THIS WEEK HAS BEEN A STELLAR WEEK FOR GOLD PRICE INCREASES.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S GAIN IN PRICE AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING, WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5474 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  5474 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5474 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 11,790 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5474 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 6316 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $22.15 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A FAIR SIZED 1236 CONTRACTS,  WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   OCT (60.136 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.219 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.136 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE  UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY  $22.15/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL IN STOPPING GOLD’S ADVANCE. CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 36.67 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS + 20.917 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR

//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 39.219 TONNES.+ + 20.917 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK

NEW STANDING FOR OCT 39.219 TONNES  + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR= 60.136 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $22.15

WE HAD 1581 CONTRACTS REMOVED  FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 11,790 CONTRACTS OR 1,179,000 OZ (36.67 TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 187,067 contracts fair

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

OCT 23  OCT  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	9450.02 oz Brinks Brinks enhanced Malca 30 kilobars           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	60,154.521 OZ Malca 1871 kilobars
No of oz served (contracts) today	26 notice(s) 2600 OZ 0.0808 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	43 contracts    4300 OZ 0.1337 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,566 notices 1,256,600oz 39.083 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits:0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 1 customer deposits

i) Into Malca: 60,154.521 oz 1871 kilobars

total deposits 60,154.521 oz oz 

withdrawals: 3

i) Out of Brinks 103.39 oz

ii) Out of Brinks Enhanced 8382.100 oz

iii) Out of Malca 964.530 oz (30 kilobars

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 9450.02 oz

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 69 contracts having LOST 19 contracts

We had 40 contracts filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED 21 contracts on our two exchanges or 21 CONTRACTS underwent a 2100 oz queue jump. This is central bank action grabbing all the physical they can.

NOVEMBER LOST 29 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1314

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED 3695 CONTRACTS TO 451,235

We had 26 contracts filed for today representing 2600 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 4 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 26 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,566 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  OCT(69 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (26 x 100 oz per contract( equals  1,260,900 OZ  OR 39.219 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.917 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR, NEW TOTAL = 60.136 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month:  No of notices filed so far (12,566 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT  (69 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (26 x 100 oz which equals  1,260,900 oz (39.219 TONNES)  + 20.917 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY /PRIOR = 60.136 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 60.136 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,652,870.049  oz 51.41 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,043,488.436 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,746,692.833/// 240.95tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,296,795.630 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,093,822 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 189.54 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT   23 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE OCT 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	636,351.198 oz DELAWARE Brinks .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	610,479.400 oz Asahi
No of oz served today (contracts)	68 CONTRACT(S)    (340,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	4 contracts  (20,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1426 Contracts  (7.130 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  1 customer deposits

i) Into ASAHI 610,479.400 oz

total customer deposits 610,479.400 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) out of Brinks 600,329.790 oz

ii) out of Delaware 36,021.408 oz

total withdrawal 636,351.198 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.172million  or 44.11%

adjustment 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 68.449MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.17million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 72 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 32 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 8 CONTRACTS SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 40 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 200,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NOVEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 91 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 899

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 2826 CONTRACTS UP TO 129,586 CONTRACTS

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 68 for 340,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 92,463 huge

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1426x 5,000 oz = 7.130 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (72) and the number of notices served upon today (68)x (5000 oz) to which we add 195,000 oz of exchange for risk/PRIOR equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the  standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month:  1426 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(72) number of notices served upon today minus (68)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month + .195 million oz ex. for risk/PRIOR equates to 7.345 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 7.345 million oz.

There are 69.742 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

 OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

 OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

 OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 13  WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES

SEPT 12  WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES

SEPT 11  WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES

SEPT 10   WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 895.24 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

OCT 23  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ

 OCT 22  WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ

OCT 18  WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 17  WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 16  WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15  WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11  WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9  WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

 OCT 7  WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

 OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ

SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ

SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ

SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ

SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 478.089 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

Equities are on the edge…

While stocks have undoubtedly lost momentum, few bulls notice the rise in bond yields which if they continue will crash equity markets. This is systemically extremely dangerous.

Alasdair MacleodOct 23∙Paid

READ IN APP

There is a growing air of surrealism in markets. The S&P500 is close to all-time highs, yet yields on US treasuries are rising, with the 10-year note yield having risen from 3.62% on 16 September to 4.234% today and the long bond to 4.52%. And this is despite expectations of lower interest rates over the next few months.

Putting these two into one chart, we can see how the valuation gap has become record stretched. The valuation gap between the 30-year UST and the S&P is not only at record levels but RISING!

These are elements which drive an equity market collapse. There is a growing realisation that Trump will win the presidency and that his tariff policies and tax cutting will be a disaster for inflation prospects. Forget rate cuts. This is what is likely to drive bond yields sharply higher, and therefore collapse equity markets.

And where the S&P goes, so will equities globally. The collapse of these values also undermines collateral securing other forms of credit.

Get out of credit!

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

Dollar-dumping BRICs attendees must bring plenty of them to Kazan

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-10-23 10:42 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Huileng Tan
Business Insider, New York
Wednesday, October 23, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin is hosting a major summit with more than 20 world leaders whom he’s trying to convince to ditch the dollar.

De-dollarization is one of Putin’s priorities because trading in local currencies would mean that a heavily sanctioned Russia wouldn’t be beholden to the Western U.S.-dollar-dominated global financial order.

But it’s not easy to move away from the greenback. The organizers of the BRICS summit have advised foreign attendees to bring cash — specifically, U.S. dollars and euros — to the event in the Russian city of Kazan.

Most Russian banks will take only U.S. dollars or euros — which Moscow has deemed “toxic currencies” — to exchange for rubles, according to a guide on the summit’s website.

Going cashless isn’t an option since it’s not possible to use Mastercard or Visa cards issued outside Russia in the country. The two card issuers halted local operations days after Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-brics-summit-foreign-attendees-cash-usd-euros-putin-2024-10

end

Gold and silver bull builds excitement for 50th anniversary New Orleans conference

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-10-22 21:01 Section: Daily Dispatches

Join GATA there but act soon. The conference’s room block at the conference hotel, the Hilton New Orleans Riverside, closes this Friday, October 25.

* * *

By Brien Lundin
Gold Newsletter and New Orleans Investment Conference
Metairie, Louisiana
Thursday, October 3, 2024

We’re in the final stages of preparing our agenda for this year’s blockbuster 50th anniversary New Orleans Investment Conference, and I’m excited about the surprises we’ll have in store for you.

But the most exciting thing about this year’s New Orleans conference is the simple fact that gold — and soon silver and the miners — have embarked on the next big bull market. And if there’s one indisputable truth in investing, it’s this:

You need to be in New Orleans during a metals and mining bull market.

With our long tradition at the epicenter of the sound money movement, with dozens of the world’s top experts in macro, metals, and miners saving their best strategies and recommendations for our event each year, there’s simply no better place to leverage this historic opportunity.

Consider the faculty we’re gathering to give you their best insights:

James Grant … George Gammon … Rick Rule … Danielle DiMartino Booth … Brent Johnson … Jim Iuorio … Peter Boockvar … Jim Bianco … James Lavish … Adrian Day…Dave Collum…Alex Green…Bob Prechter…Tracy Shuchart…Avi Gilburt … Adam Taggart … Lawrence Lepard … Mark Skousen … Chris Powell … Russ Gray … Robert Helms … Nick Hodge … Sean Brodrick … Lobo Tiggre … Jordan Roy-Byrne … Jeff Clark … Jennifer Shaigec … Mary Anne and Pam Aden … Dana Samuelson … Bill Murphy … David Morgan … Gary Alexander … Jeff Deist … Albert Lu … Omar Ayales … Gerardo Del Real … Rich Checkan … Thom Calandra. …

…Plus exclusive virtual presentations by Tavi Costa and Lyn Alden … and, of course, my latest views and recommendations as well.

In their compelling presentations, our faculty will clearly explain what’s going on in the markets and what you need to do.

They’ll also participate in scintillating panels on Precious Metals, Mining Stocks, Gold, Crypto and Cash: The Future of Money, the Economy … and our rollicking “Booms, Busts, and Bubbles” Panel, along with our crucial, post-election Geopolitical Panel.

It’s going to be the event for investors from around the world — and again, it’s coming at a crucial time in the global economy and markets.

But here’s what you may not yet know. I have just gotten our latest report, and the pace of registrations for this year’s historic New Orleans Investment Conference is starting to accelerate. It’s already ahead of anything we’ve seen in years.

Not only that, but the very best mining and small-cap companies are rushing in to participate. Our top-level sponsorship opportunities are nearing a sell-out. Add in the strict limit on our room block in the luxurious Hilton New Orleans Riverside, and the fact that our registration fees are about to rise, and the bottom line is that the opportunity to meet and hear from our extraordinary speakers and exhibitors could soon vanish.

The bottom line: You can guarantee your spot, and save up to $400, by acting right now.

And speaking of guarantees, don’t forget our iron-clad assurance of satisfaction: If you attend New Orleans 2024 and don’t feel it was worth many times your cost to attend, just let us know within 30 days. We’ll happily give you a prompt, hassle-free refund on your entire registration fee. Every penny.

Considering that the New Orleans Investment Conference is renowned as the most profitable place to be in a metals and mining bull market, this is perhaps the finest reward/risk opportunity we’ll see in our investing careers.

It will be a shame if you miss it.

So click here —

PowellGata

— or give us a call toll-free at 800-648-8411 to learn more and register now.

* * *

Join GATA here:

New Orleans Investment Conference
Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel
Wednesday-Saturday, November 20-23, 2024
https://neworleansconference.com/powellgata/

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 195 ANDREW MAGUIRE//OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES

Record High Gold Price Signals “Fragmenting Global System”; El-Erian Warns

Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Mohammed El-Erian

Something strange has happened to the price of gold over the past year.

In setting one record level after the other, it seems to have decoupled from its traditional historical influencers, such as interest rates, inflation and the dollar. Moreover, the consistency of its rise stands in contrast to fluctuations in pivotal geopolitical situations.

Gold’s “all-weather” characteristic signals something that goes beyond economics, politics and higher-frequency geopolitical developments. It captures an increasingly persistent behavioural trend among China and “middle power” countries, as well as others. And it is a trend that the west should be paying greater attention to.

Over the past 12 months, the price of an ounce of gold on international markets has increased from $1,947 to $2,715, a gain of almost 40 per cent.

Interestingly, this march up in price has been relatively linear, with any pullback attracting more buyers.

It has occurred despite some wild swings in expected policy rates, a wide fluctuation band for benchmark US yields, falling inflation and currency volatility.

Some may be tempted to dismiss gold’s performance as part of a more general increase in asset prices that, for example, has seen the US S&P index gain about 35 per cent in the past 12 months.

Yet that correlation itself is unusual. Others will attribute it to the risk of military conflicts that have seen so many innocent civilians lose their lives and livelihoods, together with massive destruction of infrastructure. Yet the price journey suggests that there may well be a lot more going on.

Consistent foreign central bank purchases have been an important driver of gold’s strength. Such buying seems not just related to the desire of many to gradually diversify their reserve holdings away from significant dollar dominance despite America’s “economic exceptionalism”. There is also interest in exploring possible alternatives to the dollar-based payments system that has been at the core of the international architecture for some 80 years.

Ask why this is happening and you will normally get an answer that mentions a general loss in confidence in America’s management of the global order and two specific developments.

You will hear about America’s weaponisation of trade tariffs and investment sanctions, together with its reduced interest in the rule-based, co-operative multilateral system that it played a pivotal role in designing 80 years ago.

You will also hear about Russia’s ability to continue to trade and grow its economy despite some of the country’s banks being ejected in 2022 from Swift, the international system that governs the vast majority of cross-border payments. It has done this by creating a clunky trade and payments alternative system that involves a handful of other countries. While inefficient and costly, this allowed Russia to bypass the dollar and maintain a core set of international economic and financial relations.

Then there is the aspect related to the conflict in the Middle East where the US is viewed by many as an inconsistent backer of both fundamental human rights and the application of international law.

This perception has been amplified by how the US has shielded its main ally from a response to actions widely condemned in the international community.

What is at stake here is not just the erosion of the dollar’s dominant role but also a gradual change in the operation of the global system.

No other currency or payment system is able and willing to displace the dollar at the core of the system and there is a practical limit to reserve diversification. But an increasing number of little pipes are being built to go around this core; and a growing number of countries are interested and increasingly involved.

What has been happening to the gold price is not just unusual in terms of traditional economic and financial influences.

It also goes beyond strict geopolitical influences to capture a broader phenomenon which is building secular momentum.

As it develops deeper roots, this risks materially fragmenting the global system and eroding the international influence of the dollar and the US financial system. That would have an impact on the US’s ability to inform and influence outcomes, and undermine its national security.

It is a phenomenon that western governments should pay more attention to. And it is one where there is still time to course-correct, though not as much as some would hope.

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:ORANG JUICE

.

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.94 PTS OR 0.52%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 261.20 PTS OR 1.27%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 307.10 PTS OR 0.80%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.09%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1291 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1423// Oil DOWN TO 70.43 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 74.79 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1291

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1423

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 16.94 PTS OR 0.52%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 261.20 PTS OR 1.22%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 307.10 POINTS OR 0.80%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX UP TO  104.34 EURO FALLS TO 1.0766 DOWN 30 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.971 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.86…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3000 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.520 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.005

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.165

3j Gold at $2737.75 /Silver at: 34.03  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 94/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.65

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.95  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.971% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8641 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9337  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.232 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.516 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.052 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.29…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2395 UP 5 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.273 UP 4 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.026 UP 4 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

US Futures Slide For A Third Day As Dollar, Yield Storm Higher On Trumpflation Trade

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 08:18 AM

US equity futures are lower for the third day in a row on a busy earnings day with yield and the dollar both extending gains as the prospect of a Trump presidency sparking more inflation and leading to less aggressive rate cuts continued to weigh on markets. As of 8:00am ET S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.3%, with megacap tech names mostly lower: NVDA -0.4% and TSLA -0.6%. SBUX fell -5.3% as it missed revenue expectation; MCD is -6.0% lower given the E. Coli headlines. Global stocks trade mostly lower ex China with attention remaining on the micro before NFP next week and the Election/FOMC the week after. Bond yields are 2bp higher pushing the 10Y as high as 4.24%, the highest since July 26. USD surges while the yen plunges as low as 153 as yields on Japan’s 40-year notes reached the highest in 16 years. Commodities are mixed: base metals are higher, oil and precious metals are lower: oil fell 1.0%. Today, key macro data includes Existing Home Sales and Fed Beige Book. We will have a busy earnings schedule across sectors, including BA, IBM, KO, T, TMUS, TSLA, and VRT.

In premarket trading, Tesla was down 0.6% ahead of earnings this afternoon, while Boeing shares were trading marginally higher after another disastrous quarter. In other single stocks, Enphase Energy was down more than 12% as the solar equipment maker forecast disappointing revenue for the fourth quarter. McDonald’s (MCD) drops 6% after a severe E. coli outbreak tied to the restaurant chain’s Quarter Pounders sickened dozens of people in the US and killed one. Vertiv (VRT) fall 7% after the electrical power equipment company issued a fourth-quarter sales forecast that trailed Wall Street expectations. The company also reported a slowdown in order growth from the previous quarter. Starbucks (SBUX) drops 4% after pulling guidance for 2025 after sales plunged for a third consecutive quarter. Here are the other notable premarket movers:

• Alto Neuroscience (ANRO) slides 63% after saying a Phase 2b study of its treatment in patients with major depressive disorder didn’t meet the primary endpoint.
• AT&T (T) rises 2% after the company gained more mobile subscribers in the third quarter than analysts expected.
• CoStar (CSGP) drops 5% after the real estate services company cut its full-year sales forecast.
• Enphase Energy (ENPH) drops 15% after the solar-equipment maker’s 4Q revenue forecast and 3Q disappointed. Analysts flagged weakness in Europe, with Piper Sandler describing demand there as “dismal.”
• JinkoSolar (JKS) rises 6% along with other US-listed Chinese solar names after news that the US Commerce Department is considering reducing tariffs on the sector circulated in local media.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) declines 3% as Arm Holdings is canceling a license that allowed Qualcomm to use Arm’s intellectual property to design chips
• Stride (LRN) soars 27% after the company’s first-quarter revenue and forecast for the second quarter surpassed estimates.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) rises 3% after the chipmaker reported third-quarter results that beat expectations.

The broader risk-off tone comes as investors pare back bets on rapid policy easing, given signs that the US economy remains robust and concerns about higher inflation as a Republican sweep looks increasingly likely. Most Fed officials speaking earlier this week signaled they favor a slower tempo of rate reductions.

The bond moves have made earnings seem like a “bit of a sideshow,” said James Athey, a portfolio manager at Marlborough. “Shifting growth, the Fed and election expectations have created a bit of a perfect storm for a Treasury market which was a little over its skis in terms of rate cut expectations just a month or so ago.”

The debate about the speed and scale of the Fed’s monetary easing continued, with Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan urging Fed policymakers to be measured in the magnitude of interest-rate reductions.
The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, lowered its global growth forecast for next year and warned of accelerating risks ranging from wars to trade protectionism, even as it credited central banks for taming inflation without sending nations into recession.

“Of course Tesla is still one of those stocks which has the potential to get people off their seats,” Athey said. “Discounting any volatility even at the index level after they report would be foolish. Boeing remains in a bad way and so it’s hard to see material good news coming there.”

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 was down 0.2% as losses in consumer products and basic resources are offset by gains in autos and personal care names. Personal care stocks outperform, led by Reckitt Benckiser’s gains after reporting a smaller drop in like-for-like sales than feared. Consumer products are among lagging sectors, weighed down by L’Oreal’s post-earnings rout which tumbled on lower organic sales growth/China challenges. Among individual moves, Deutsche Bank dropped as analysts noted higher-than-expected provisions. Volvo Cars (-3.5%) beat but cut guide and Heineken (+2%) organic sales in-line w/ Americas region o/p.  Here are the other notable European movers:

• Spanish energy stocks rise after Expansion reports that Spain’s government is considering a reduction of the 1.2% windfall tax on domestic revenue of large energy firms.
• Lloyds shares rise as much as 2%, hitting their highest level since January 2020, after the UK bank posted pretax profit that beat expectations in the third quarter.
• Heineken shares advance as much as 2% after the brewer reported third-quarter organic sales growth that analysts said was in line with company-compiled consensus.
• Reckitt Benckiser shares rise as much as 2.1% after the personal care products maker reported a milder drop in like-for-like sales than feared.
• European chipmakers gain as Texas Instruments says demand for automotive chips remains strong in China, and some end markets like personal electronics are seeing a continued cyclical recovery.
• Handelsbanken shares rise as much as 6.6% after the Swedish lender reported strong results for the third quarter, according to analysts, including a beat in net interest income.
• DWS shares gain as much as 2.4% after the German asset manager’s net inflows and profit beat estimates thanks to drivers such as reduced costs and higher management fees.
• L’Oreal shares fall as much as 3.6% after the beauty firm’s third-quarter sales growth disappointed amid weakness in China and a significant miss in the dermatological segment.
• Deutsche Bank shares decline 3% after the German lender reported earnings that analysts say are underwhelming with provisions seen as the “weak spot.”
• Akzo Nobel shares fall as much as 5.7%, the most since April, after the paint producer lowered its profit forecast for the full year due to rising costs and weaker demand.
• Telecom Italia shares fall as much as 3.2%. The Italian finance police executed a search warrant at the office of one of its managers earlier for alleged bribery between private individuals.
• U-Blox shares slump as much as 10% to the lowest level since March 2022 after the Swiss semiconductor company reported third-quarter results at the lower end of guidance and slightly below market expectations, according to Vontobel.

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks hit their lowest level in a month as a weakness in tech heavyweight TSMC and the dollar’s strength offset a rally in Hong Kong shares. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index moved in a narrow range before retreating 0.4%, as TSMC dragged while Meituan and Toyota advanced. The cautious trade comes as some key US companies’ downbeat news led to flat trading in US stocks and the prospect of a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts weighs on risk sentiment. “Asian markets are lacking direction at the moment,” said Matthew Haupt, a fund manager at Wilson Asset Management. Investors are “watching for any clues to the health of the US labor market and likely Fed policy settings later in the week,” he said.

In FX, the dollar also adds to its recent gains with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbing 0.2%. The yen is the clear underperformer among in the G-10 space, falling more than 1% against the greenback and taking USDJPY to 153 and above the 200 DMA in the process.

In rates, treasuries are cheaper again across the curve, underperforming bunds where German 2-year yields are richer by 7bp on the day. US yields are 1bp-2bp cheaper across maturities, with 10-year around 4.22%, the highest since July and trailing bunds in the sector by 2.5bp; Canadian yields are little changed ahead of the rate decision Euro-zone front-end shifts to lower yields as swaps price in around 45% chance of a 50bp rate cut at ECB’s final meeting this year on Dec. 12. Bank of Canada rate decision at 9:45am New York time is expected be a 50bp rate cut to 3.75%.  Gilts are also under pressure but there has been a bid in German shorter-dated bonds as traders add to their ECB rate cut bets. German 2-year yields are down 6 bps. Yields on Japan’s 40-year notes reached the highest in 16 years.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1% to $71 a barrel as a US industry group signaled a rise in nationwide crude inventories, and the Biden administration renewed efforts to secure a cease-fire in the Middle East. Gold was steady after climbing to a fresh record. Gold hit another record high, rising above $2750 as traders seek safety amid jitters over the US election and ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Speaking of, Secretary of State Antony Blinken headed to Saudi Arabia to push for a broad truce after urging Israel to avoid creating “greater escalation.”

Looking at today’s calendar, we get September existing home sales at 10am and the Fed Beige book at 2pm. Fed speaker slate includes Bowman (9am) and Barkin (12pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures little changed at 5,887.50
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.1% to 519.66
• MXAP down 0.2% to 187.87
• MXAPJ up 0.3% to 604.88
• Nikkei down 0.8% to 38,104.86
• Topix down 0.5% to 2,636.96
• Hang Seng Index up 1.3% to 20,760.15
• Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,302.80
• Sensex up 0.2% to 80,353.83
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 8,216.01
• Kospi up 1.1% to 2,599.62
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.32%
• Euro down 0.1% to $1.0784
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $75.44/bbl
• Brent Futures down 0.8% to $75.44/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,757.17
• US Dollar Index up 0.25% to 104.33

Top Overnight News

• China’s stimulus efforts aren’t enough to bolster domestic demand according to Treasury Sec Yellen and the IMF. RTRS
• Arm will end a license that allowed Qualcomm to use its IP to design chips, escalating a legal dispute. Qualcomm shares fell. BBG
• Bill Gates privately said he has backed VP Harris with a USD 50mln donation: NYT.
• European Central Bank policymakers have begun to debate whether interest rates need to be lowered enough to start stimulating the economy, ending years of economic restriction, conversations this week with half a dozen sources indicate. RTRS
• Volvo Car shares dip in Eurozone trading after the company trimmed its sales guidance for the year given “accelerating weakness in the market” (it now sees sales up 7-8% vs. the prior 12-15%). RTRS
• Blackstone CEO Steve Schwarzman said the US is likely to avoid a recession regardless of who wins the presidential election, as both candidates have policy proposals that appeal to growth. BBG
• Paul Tudor Jones warns of a large slump in bond markets after the election due to massive fiscal risks. CNBC
• Walmart will start offering home prescription deliveries in as little as 30 minutes as it and Amazon take aim at CVS and Walgreens. FT
• Amazon is shutting down a service dubbed Amazon Today that offered same-day delivery from brick-and-mortar retailers. CNBC
• McDonald’s plunged premarket after an E. coli outbreak tied to its Quarter Pounders killed one person and sickened dozens, mainly in Colorado and Nebraska. It said slivered onions may be the cause. Starbucks slid after it pulled next year’s guidance following another slump in same-store sales. BBG
• Fed’s Daly (voter) commented on X that the economy is in a better place, inflation has fallen substantially and the labour market has returned to a more sustainable path, while she added that risks to goals are now balanced which is a significant improvement from two years ago. Furthermore, she stated that work to achieve a soft landing is not fully done and they are resolute to finish that job, but noted it cannot be all they are after and ultimately must strive for a world where people aren’t worried about inflation or the economy.
• Former President Trump said he would make car interest payments fully tax deductible if they are domestically built.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers, recent upside in yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions. ASX 200 traded rangebound with strength in consumer stocks offsetting the underperformance in tech and energy. Nikkei 225 was the laggard as it failed to benefit from a weaker currency and a surge in Tokyo Metro shares on its debut. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp advanced with risk appetite supported as participants digested earnings releases and after the PBoC upped its liquidity effort, while a Chinese policy think tank called for the issuance of CNY 2tln in special treasury bonds to establish a stock market stabilisation fund.

Top Asian News

• Chinese policy think tank CASS called for Beijing to issue CNY 2tln of special treasury bonds to set up a stock market stabilisation fund, according to 21st Century Business Herald.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.1%) began the session on a mixed footing, but sentiment continued to slip as the morning progressed, with almost the entirety of European indices in modest negative territory. European sectors are mixed; Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, assisted by post-earning strength in Reckitt Benckiser. Consumer Products is weighed on by poor earnings in L’Oreal. Key European earnings: Volvo Car (-3.2%) Q3 Revenue (SEK) 93bln (exp. 89.65bln), Adj. EBIT 5.7bln (exp. 4.78bln); sees FY Retail Sales +7-8% (prev. guided +12-15%). Roche (+0.1%) Q3 (CHF): Sales 15.14bln (exp. 14.93bln). FY Outlook confirmed. Deutsche Bank (-2.8%) Q3 (EUR) PBT 2.26bln (exp. 2.1bln), Revenue 7.5bln (exp. 7.3bln). FY Guidance: Confident in Revenue guide of “around” 30bln (exp. 29.44bln).

Top European News

• ECB policymakers are beginning to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral level in the current easing cycle, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to impose national insurance on employer’s pension contribution in the Budget, according to The Times.

FX

• USD is continuing to out-muscle peers as the US yield environment in the run-up to next month’s Presidential election continues to provide support. Accordingly, the DXY has gained a firmer footing on a 104 handle and ventured as high as 104.36.
• EUR is softer vs. the USD with EUR/USD extending its move onto a 1.07 handle in the wake of dovish ECB source reporting which has raised the possibility of the Bank aiming for a terminal rate below neutral.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD with Cable stuck below the 1.30 mark. BoE Governor Bailey & Breeden are due to speak today, though remarks from members on Tuesday failed to materially move the Pound.
• JPY’s bruising run has continued into today’s session with US yields and domestic Japanese political risks continuing to drag USD/JPY higher. Currently sitting well above 152.00 at a 152.72 peak.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD after Tuesday’s attempted recovery with antipodeans remaining at risk of a Republican clean sweep.
• CAD is relatively steady vs. the USD and tucked within Tuesday’s 1.3813-38 range in the run-up to today’s BoC rate decision. Expectations are for a 50bps rate cut, and with markets pricing a 50bps cut at 97%.

Fixed Income

• Bunds are lower by a handful of ticks, but ultimately reside within a contained range, holding around 20 ticks above Tuesday’s 132.58 WTD trough. Potential support could also be attributed to reports that officials are debating whether rates will need to go below the neutral level this cycle. German paper was unreactive to a well-received 10yr auction.
• Gilts are softer than EGBs and were ultimately unmoved by a fairly well-received 2027 outing. Gilts are currently at a 96.40 WTD trough, matching the Oct. 15th low ahead of speak from BoE’s Bailey.
• USTs are trading somewhere between Bunds and Gilts in terms of magnitudes, with USTs finding themselves under modest pressure ahead of 20yr supply though as it stands action is relatively even across the curve. At a 111-03+ trough which marks a marginal new WTD base.
• UK sells GBP 4bln 3.75% 2027 Gilt Auction: b/c 3.29x (prev. 3.33x) & average yield 4.082% (prev. 4.068%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.303bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.60% 2034 Bund Auction: b/c 2.30x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 2.31% (prev. 2.08%) & retention 17.43% (prev. 17.69%).

Crude

• Crude is trading on the backfoot, amid a lack of catalysts but as eyes remain on Israel regarding its retaliation against Iran, in which the focus will fall on the targets and the magnitude of the attack for its escalation factor. Brent’Dec trades towards the bottom of a narrow USD 75.47-76.05/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals are mixed. Spot gold continues to print fresh all-time highs against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical landscape whilst silver trims some of Tuesday’s gains.
• Base metals are mostly lower and giving back some of yesterday’s upside. 3M LME copper just about remains above USD 9,500/t.
• Kazakhstan’s Kaztransoil shipped 145,000T oil to Germany; plans to supply 133,000T to Germany in October.
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +1.6mln (exp. +0.3mln), Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -2mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.2mln.

Geopolitics

• Israel begins strikes on Lebanese port city of Tyre, via Reuters citing witnesses.
• “Sources for Sky News Arabia: Russia will help Iran to counter the planned Israeli strike in some form”, according to Sky News Arabia; “Russia will help Iran without risking harm to its relations with Israel”. “Israeli sources to Sky News Arabia: We do not rule out the idea of Russia helping Iran in countering the Israeli strike”. “Israeli sources to Sky News Arabia: Russian assistance may be by giving Iran early warning and instructions to protect potential targets.”. “Israeli sources to Sky News Arabia: Russian assistance to Iran may include the detection of attacking aircraft and electronic jamming”
• “US asked European countries to develop a vision to support the Palestinian Authority”, according to Sky News Arabia sources; “Arab countries hold new talks on ensuring the implementation of the new peace plan”. “Arab countries hold new talks on ensuring the implementation of the new peace plan”
• Israel’s army completed its preparations to attack Iran and it seems that it will be within days, according to Israel’s Channel 12 citing two sources.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said in a meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken that there is a need to lead to a security and political change in the north, which would allow Israel to return its residents safely to their homes. Netanyahu added that the killing of Hamas leader Sinwar may have a positive effect on the return of Israeli hostages, the achievement of all the goals of the war, and the day after.
• US Secretary of State Blinken, in meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu, underscored the need to capitalise on Israel’s action to bring Sinwar to justice by securing a hostage release and ending the conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, Blinken sought during his meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu to soften the response to Iran, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 13.
• US Secretary of State Blinken and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed the concrete steps to capitalise on the death of Hamas leader Sinwar, a senior US official told Reuters. Blinken made it clear that Israel’s humanitarian aid steps so far have not been sufficient and Israeli leaders committed to act upon US requests laid out in Blinken’s letter on the need for more humanitarian aid. Furthermore, Blinken will no longer go to Jordan on Wednesday but he will be traveling to Saudi Arabia.
• White House said Israel must respond to the Iranian attack and it will not review what they will do, according to Al Jazeera.
• Pentagon said it cannot provide information regarding the Israeli attack on Iran and it is consulting with partners in the region in order to de-escalate, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel’s army confirmed the killing of late Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s presumed successor Hashem Safieddine.
• Israel will continue to attack Hezbollah even after the end of the operation in Lebanon until it withdraws behind the Litani, according to Sky News Arabia citing comments by Galant to Blinken.
• IDF spokesman said the Israeli Air Force intercepted a drone in Syrian airspace launched from the east. It was also reported that Israeli military said it intercepted two UAVs that crossed into Israel’s waters in the area of Eilat, while Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced it targeted Israel’s Eilat with drones.
• Palestinian media reported continuous aerial and artillery shelling on different areas in the northern Gaza Strip, as well as heavy Israeli shelling on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Asharq News.
• Iranian President says they seek to prevent the expansion of conflict within the region, while Israel has shown “it is only looking for conflict”, via Al Arabiya.
• Iraqi media reports that the US’ air defence system and radar in the Koniko gas field, Syria, were hit by a missile attack on Tuesday night, via IRNA.
• US Secretary of State Blinken says they fully reject any Israeli reoccupation of Gaza.
• North Korean leader Kim inspected strategic missile bases, according to KCNA.

US Event Calendar

• 07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -17.0%
• 10:00: Sept. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 0.5%, prior -2.5%
• 10:00: Sept. Home Resales with Condos, est. 3.88m, prior 3.86m
• 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

Central Bank speakers

• 09:00: Fed’s Bowman Gives Opening Remarks
• 12:00: Fed’s Barkin Speaks About Community Colleges
• 14:00: Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book

DB’s JIm Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Only two weeks until the big day. One that I’ve been looking forward to for what seems an exceptionally long time. Yes, the kids will go back to school after an extended 2-week half-term. As predicted last week my wife was already fed up with them last night after one day of holiday yesterday. The twins are so noisy! I’m off to Center Parcs with them all for a long weekend on Friday so I won’t be spared.

With two weeks to go today until the election, markets have started the week a bit more nervously than during the last 6 where the the S&P 500 has gone up each week for only the second time since the pandemic. Yesterday it started the week -0.18% but with bigger sell-offs elsewhere and extending into the Asian session this morning. The sell-off was much more pronounced among sovereign bonds though, with the 10yr Treasury yield (+11.3bps) reaching its highest level (4.20%) since late July, shortly before the weak payroll report, the Japanese mini-crash and the associated brief market turmoil. Moreover, the move was primarily driven by higher real yields, with the 10yr real yield (+10.2bps) moving up to 1.88%, which is its highest level since the end of July. Overnight, 10yr USTs are another +1.4bps higher as we go to print.

There were several factors behind the move but none that particularly dominated yesterday. In the background there has been a rising concern about debts and deficits, particularly ahead of the US election. Indeed, the IMF pointed out in their recent Fiscal Monitor that global public debt is forecast to exceed $100 trillion this year, and rise further in the medium term, so this is a growing issue as policymakers gather for the IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings in Washington this week. Moreover, our US economists have pointed out that irrespective of who wins the presidency or congress, they could see deficits in the 7-9% area over 2026-28, which is a level unprecedented outside of major wars or massive economic shocks like the GFC and Covid-19.
In addition to the long-end moves, expectations of Fed easing continue to drift lower, with Fed funds pricing for next March (+8.0bps to 4.05%) moving back above 4% for the first time since the start of August, after having fallen to below 3.4% in late September. This came as Fed speakers continued to express preference for gradual easing moving forward, with Kansas City President Schmid favouring “modest” reductions while Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari was “forecasting some more modest cuts”.

Another factor behind the bond selloff were growing inflation risks, and yesterday saw Brent crude oil prices (+1.68%) pick up again to $74.29/bbl. That comes amidst growing focus on Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran’s missile strikes earlier this month, which is still yet to materialise. But oil prices were reacting to several weekend developments, including the drone strike on the private home of Israeli PM Netanyahu that we mentioned yesterday. Indeed, foreign minister Israel Katz said over the weekend that there was “no doubt that another red line has been crossed here”. Meanwhile, although the classic safe haven of gold (-0.06%) closed marginally lower, after posting four consecutive session ATHs, this morning its +0.43% higher as I type and back at what would be record closing levels again.

Over in Europe, the bond selloff was even more aggressive, with yields on 10yr bunds (+9.9bps), OATs (+12.1bps) and BTPs (+15.3bps) all seeing large moves higher. In part, that’s because investors have pared back their expectations for a larger 50bp rate cut at the ECB’s December meeting, and we had a lot of commentary from several officials to digest as well. For instance, Lithuania’s Simkus said that he didn’t see the need for cuts bigger than 25bps, and Slovakia’s Kazimir said that the December meeting was “wide open”.

Back to the US election, the general consensus across polls, betting averages and forecasting models is that Trump has gained ground on Harris, but the race is still within the margin of error across the key battleground states. Now clearly that could change, but from a market perspective, the Trump bump has meant that beneficiaries of the “Trump trade” have continued to do well in recent sessions. Most notably, Trump Media & Technology Group (+5.81%) was up to its highest since July yesterday just after Biden pulled out of the Presidential race.

Returning to yesterday, equities struggled, particularly as bond yields kept on rising. The S&P 500 (-0.18%) posted a modest decline, but it was a broad-based one, with the equal weighted version of the index seeing its worst day in more than six weeks (-0.85%). Small-caps struggled in particular as the Russell 2000 (-1.60%) saw its worst day since early September. Information technology (+0.93%) was the only major sector within the S&P 500 to post a gain. The Mag-7 (+0.64%) advanced as Nvidia (+4.14%) hit a new record high, while the NASDAQ (+0.27%) moved to within half a percent of its all-time high from July. Over in Europe, markets closed around the intra-day lows of the US session, with the STOXX 600 (-0.66%) and the DAX (-1.00%) both losing significant ground.

Whilst there were several short-term catalysts for the selloff, it’s also worth bearing in mind that the market performance has been pretty incredible over recent months. Only last week, we saw US IG credit spreads reach their tightest level since 2005, and the S&P 500 is up for 37 of the last 51 weeks, which is a joint record back to 1989. This means that traditional valuation metrics are now looking increasingly stretched by historic standards, at a time when geopolitical risks are elevated and the soft landing is now increasingly priced in as the likely outcome, so it should in theory get harder from here. Henry took a look at some of these reasons for caution yesterday here.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning. The S&P/ASX 200 (-1.68%) is the biggest underperformer in the region, followed by the Nikkei (-1.43%), the Topix (-1.14%), and the KOSPI (-1.17%). However, Chinese equities are defying the regional trend, with the Hang Seng (+0.41%) and the CSI 300 (+0.47%) posting gains. S&P 500 (-0.18%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.26%) futures are edging lower. Aussie 10yr yields are +14.5bps with JGBs +2.6bps.

Early morning data showed that South Korea’s producer prices declined by -0.2% in September, matching the decline from the previous month.

There was very little data to speak of yesterday, although we did get the Conference Board’s leading index from the US. That showed a decline of -0.5% in September (vs. -0.3% expected). In level terms, that also left the index at its lowest level since May 2016. The monthly reading hasn’t been positive since February 2022 so the release has lost some of its shock value recently given how well growth as performed over the last few quarters. Separately in Germany, producer prices remained in deflationary territory in September, at -1.4% year-on-year (vs. -1.1% expected).

To the day ahead now, and central bank speakers include ECB President Lagarde, the ECB’s Centeno, Knot, Holzmann, Villeroy, Rehn and Panetta, the Fed’s Harker, BoE Governor Bailey, and the BoE’s Greene and Breeden. Otherwise, earnings releases include General Electric, General Motors and Verizon.

2B) European report

European bourses trading negative, US futures follow suit with earnings ahead – Newsquawk US Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 05:47 AM

• European bourses are generally trading in negative territory; US futures follow suit, ahead of a busy earnings slate.
• DXY continues to march higher, USD/JPY climbs back above 152 to a current 152.74 peak.
• USTs are modestly lower ahead of 20yr supply; Bunds were unreactive to a well-received 10yr auction.
• Crude is subdued and continues to await geopolitical updates; XAU is slightly higher whilst base metals are mostly in the red.
• Looking ahead, US Existing Home Sales, BoC Policy Announcement, Comments from BoE’s Breeden & Bailey, Fed’s Bowman, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane & Cipollone, RBNZ’s Governor Orr, BoJ Governor Ueda, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers. Supply from the US.
• Earnings: Michelin, Carrefour, AT&T, Boston Scientific, GE Vernova, Coca-Cola, Roper Technologies, General Dynamics, Boeing, T-Mobile US, Tesla, IBM & ServiceNow.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.1%) began the session on a mixed footing, but sentiment continued to slip as the morning progressed, with almost the entirety of European indices in modest negative territory.
• European sectors are mixed; Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, assisted by post-earning strength in Reckitt Benckiser. Consumer Products is weighed on by poor earnings in L’Oreal.
• Key European earnings: Volvo Car (-3.2%) Q3 Revenue (SEK) 93bln (exp. 89.65bln), Adj. EBIT 5.7bln (exp. 4.78bln); sees FY Retail Sales +7-8% (prev. guided +12-15%). Roche (+0.1%) Q3 (CHF): Sales 15.14bln (exp. 14.93bln). FY Outlook confirmed. Deutsche Bank (-2.8%) Q3 (EUR) PBT 2.26bln (exp. 2.1bln), Revenue 7.5bln (exp. 7.3bln). FY Guidance: Confident in Revenue guide of “around” 30bln (exp. 29.44bln).
• US Equity Futures (ES -0.1%, NQ -0.2%, RTY -0.3%) are modestly lower across the board, but with price action fairly rangebound given the lack of pertinent newsflow.
• Nvidia (NVDA) CEO says TSMC (2330 TT/TSM) helped them recover from a design flaw in Blackwell chips, allowing them to resume work at an incredible pace
• CDC says McDonald’s (MCD) is linked to a severe E.coli outbreak and 10 people have been hospitalised, while one older person has died. Shares -6.2% in pre-market trade
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is continuing to out-muscle peers as the US yield environment in the run-up to next month’s Presidential election continues to provide support. Accordingly, the DXY has gained a firmer footing on a 104 handle and ventured as high as 104.36.
• EUR is softer vs. the USD with EUR/USD extending its move onto a 1.07 handle in the wake of dovish ECB source reporting which has raised the possibility of the Bank aiming for a terminal rate below neutral.
• GBP is flat vs. the USD with Cable stuck below the 1.30 mark. BoE Governor Bailey & Breeden are due to speak today, though remarks from members on Tuesday failed to materially move the Pound.
• JPY’s bruising run has continued into today’s session with US yields and domestic Japanese political risks continuing to drag USD/JPY higher. Currently sitting well above 152.00 at a 152.72 peak.
• Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD after Tuesday’s attempted recovery with antipodeans remaining at risk of a Republican clean sweep.
• CAD is relatively steady vs. the USD and tucked within Tuesday’s 1.3813-38 range in the run-up to today’s BoC rate decision. Expectations are for a 50bps rate cut, and with markets pricing a 50bps cut at 97%.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• Bunds are lower by a handful of ticks, but ultimately reside within a contained range, holding around 20 ticks above Tuesday’s 132.58 WTD trough. Potential support could also be attributed to reports that officials are debating whether rates will need to go below the neutral level this cycle. German paper was unreactive to a well-received 10yr auction.
• Gilts are softer than EGBs and were ultimately unmoved by a fairly well-received 2027 outing. Gilts are currently at a 96.40 WTD trough, matching the Oct. 15th low ahead of speak from BoE’s Bailey.
• USTs are trading somewhere between Bunds and Gilts in terms of magnitudes, with USTs finding themselves under modest pressure ahead of 20yr supply though as it stands action is relatively even across the curve. At a 111-03+ trough which marks a marginal new WTD base.
• UK sells GBP 4bln 3.75% 2027 Gilt Auction: b/c 3.29x (prev. 3.33x) & average yield 4.082% (prev. 4.068%), tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.3bps).
• Germany sells EUR 3.303bln vs exp. EUR 4bln 2.60% 2034 Bund Auction: b/c 2.30x (prev. 2.0x), average yield 2.31% (prev. 2.08%) & retention 17.43% (prev. 17.69%).
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is trading on the backfoot, amid a lack of catalysts but as eyes remain on Israel regarding its retaliation against Iran, in which the focus will fall on the targets and the magnitude of the attack for its escalation factor. Brent’Dec trades towards the bottom of a narrow USD 75.47-76.05/bbl parameter.
• Precious metals are mixed. Spot gold continues to print fresh all-time highs against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical landscape whilst silver trims some of Tuesday’s gains.
• Base metals are mostly lower and giving back some of yesterday’s upside. 3M LME copper just about remains above USD 9,500/t.
• Kazakhstan’s Kaztransoil shipped 145,000T oil to Germany; plans to supply 133,000T to Germany in October.
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +1.6mln (exp. +0.3mln), Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -2mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.2mln.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• South African CPI YY (Sep) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.9% (Prev. 4.4%); CPI MM (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.1%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• ECB policymakers are beginning to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral level in the current easing cycle, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to impose national insurance on employer’s pension contribution in the Budget, according to The Times.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed’s Daly (voter) commented on X that the economy is in a better place, inflation has fallen substantially and the labour market has returned to a more sustainable path, while she added that risks to goals are now balanced which is a significant improvement from two years ago. Furthermore, she stated that work to achieve a soft landing is not fully done and they are resolute to finish that job, but noted it cannot be all they are after and ultimately must strive for a world where people aren’t worried about inflation or the economy.
• Former President Trump said he would make car interest payments fully tax deductible if they are domestically built.
• Bill Gates privately said he has backed VP Harris with a USD 50mln donation, according to NYT.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel begins strikes on Lebanese port city of Tyre, via Reuters citing witnesses.
• “Sources for Sky News Arabia: Russia will help Iran to counter the planned Israeli strike in some form”, according to Sky News Arabia; “Russia will help Iran without risking harm to its relations with Israel”. “Israeli sources to Sky News Arabia: We do not rule out the idea of Russia helping Iran in countering the Israeli strike”. “Israeli sources to Sky News Arabia: Russian assistance may be by giving Iran early warning and instructions to protect potential targets.”. “Israeli sources to Sky News Arabia: Russian assistance to Iran may include the detection of attacking aircraft and electronic jamming”
• “US asked European countries to develop a vision to support the Palestinian Authority”, according to Sky News Arabia sources; “Arab countries hold new talks on ensuring the implementation of the new peace plan”. “Arab countries hold new talks on ensuring the implementation of the new peace plan”
• Israel’s army completed its preparations to attack Iran and it seems that it will be within days, according to Israel’s Channel 12 citing two sources.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said in a meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken that there is a need to lead to a security and political change in the north, which would allow Israel to return its residents safely to their homes. Netanyahu added that the killing of Hamas leader Sinwar may have a positive effect on the return of Israeli hostages, the achievement of all the goals of the war, and the day after.
• US Secretary of State Blinken, in meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu, underscored the need to capitalise on Israel’s action to bring Sinwar to justice by securing a hostage release and ending the conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, Blinken sought during his meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu to soften the response to Iran, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 13.
• US Secretary of State Blinken and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed the concrete steps to capitalise on the death of Hamas leader Sinwar, a senior US official told Reuters. Blinken made it clear that Israel’s humanitarian aid steps so far have not been sufficient and Israeli leaders committed to act upon US requests laid out in Blinken’s letter on the need for more humanitarian aid. Furthermore, Blinken will no longer go to Jordan on Wednesday but he will be traveling to Saudi Arabia.
• White House said Israel must respond to the Iranian attack and it will not review what they will do, according to Al Jazeera.
• Pentagon said it cannot provide information regarding the Israeli attack on Iran and it is consulting with partners in the region in order to de-escalate, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel’s army confirmed the killing of late Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s presumed successor Hashem Safieddine.
• Israel will continue to attack Hezbollah even after the end of the operation in Lebanon until it withdraws behind the Litani, according to Sky News Arabia citing comments by Galant to Blinken.
• IDF spokesman said the Israeli Air Force intercepted a drone in Syrian airspace launched from the east. It was also reported that Israeli military said it intercepted two UAVs that crossed into Israel’s waters in the area of Eilat, while Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced it targeted Israel’s Eilat with drones.
• Palestinian media reported continuous aerial and artillery shelling on different areas in the northern Gaza Strip, as well as heavy Israeli shelling on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Asharq News.
• Iranian President says they seek to prevent the expansion of conflict within the region, while Israel has shown “it is only looking for conflict”, via Al Arabiya.
• Iraqi media reports that the US’ air defence system and radar in the Koniko gas field, Syria, were hit by a missile attack on Tuesday night, via IRNA.
• US Secretary of State Blinken says they fully reject any Israeli reoccupation of Gaza.

OTHER

• North Korean leader Kim inspected strategic missile bases, according to KCNA.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continues to slip and now holding just above USD 66k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers, recent upside in yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• ASX 200 traded rangebound with strength in consumer stocks offsetting the underperformance in tech and energy.
• Nikkei 225 was the laggard as it failed to benefit from a weaker currency and a surge in Tokyo Metro shares on its debut.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp advanced with risk appetite supported as participants digested earnings releases and after the PBoC upped its liquidity effort, while a Chinese policy think tank called for the issuance of CNY 2tln in special treasury bonds to establish a stock market stabilisation fund.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese policy think tank CASS called for Beijing to issue CNY 2tln of special treasury bonds to set up a stock market stabilisation fund, according to 21st Century Business Herald.

2C ASIAN REPORT

Mixed trade with drivers limited as traders await Israel’s response; earnings ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 01:47 AM

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers, recent upside in yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• ECB policymakers are beginning to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral level in the current easing cycle, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• Israel’s army completed its preparations to attack Iran, and it seems that it will be within days, according to Israel’s Channel 12 citing two sources.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Tuesday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include US Existing Home Sales, BoC Policy Announcement, Comments from BoE’s Breeden & Bailey, Fed’s Bowman, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane & Cipollone, RBNZ’s Governor Orr, BoJ Governor Ueda, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers. Supply from UK, Germany & US.
• Earnings from Michelin, Carrefour, Heineken, Akzo Nobel, Deutsche Bank, Volvo Car, Iberdrola, Barratt, Redrow, WPP, Reckitt Benckiser, Roche, AT&T, Boston Scientific, GE Vernova, Coca-Cola, Roper Technologies, General Dynamics, Boeing, T-Mobile US, Tesla, IBM & ServiceNow.

SNAPSHOT

• Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks were choppy and the major indices ultimately finished little changed on the day amid a lack of any fresh major macro catalysts and with participants tentative as they continued to await Israel’s response to Iran. Sectors were mixed following a deluge of earnings with Industrials and Materials the laggards as the former was weighed on by disappointing GE Aerospace and Lockheed Martin earnings, while Consumer Staples was the notable outperformer. Furthermore, geopolitics remained in the spotlight with sources noting the Israeli army has completed its preparations to attack Iran and it seems that it will be within days.
• SPX -0.05% at 5,851, NDX +0.11% at 20,384, DJIA -0.02% at 42,925, RUT -0.37% at 2,232
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed’s Daly (voter) commented on X that the economy is in a better place, inflation has fallen substantially and the labour market has returned to a more sustainable path, while she added that risks to goals are now balanced which is a significant improvement from two years ago. Furthermore, she stated that work to achieve a soft landing is not fully done and they are resolute to finish that job, but noted it cannot be all they are after and ultimately must strive for a world where people aren’t worried about inflation or the economy.
• Former President Trump said he would make car interest payments fully tax deductible if they are domestically built.
• Bill Gates privately said he has backed VP Harris with a USD 50mln donation, according to NYT.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the upside capped following the inconclusive performance on Wall St amid a lack of fresh macro drivers, recent upside in yields and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• ASX 200 traded rangebound with strength in consumer stocks offsetting the underperformance in tech and energy.
• Nikkei 225 was the laggard as it failed to benefit from a weaker currency and a surge in Tokyo Metro shares on its debut.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp advanced with risk appetite supported as participants digested earnings releases and after the PBoC upped its liquidity effort, while a Chinese policy think tank called for the issuance of CNY 2tln in special treasury bonds to establish a stock market stabilisation fund.
• US equity futures remained subdued following the prior day’s choppy mood with some late headwinds after Starbucks reported weak sales and McDonald’s was linked to an E. coli outbreak.
• European equity futures are indicative of a flat/firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed flat on Tuesday.

FX

• DXY held on to yesterday’s mild gains after it recently reclaimed the 104.00 level which was facilitated by the slight upside in yields but with price action quiet amid a lack of fresh catalysts and a sparse calendar.
• EUR/USD attempted to nurse some of its losses after briefly dipping beneath the 1.0800 level alongside a plethora of ECB rhetoric which continued to point to more cuts ahead, while more comments are scheduled later including from Lagarde and Lane.
• GBP/USD struggled for direction and remained beneath the 1.3000 level in the absence of significant drivers.
• USD/JPY extended on gains and breached 152.00 for the first time since July with the help of a firmer dollar and US yields
• Antipodeans conformed to the mostly uneventful mood across the FX amid a quiet calendar and somewhat mixed sentiment.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures remained subdued after the prior day’s choppy performance and mild upside in yields with demand constrained amid a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts and heading into the latest US 20yr auction.
• Bund futures languished beneath the 133.00 level following the recent slide to multi-month lows, with bund supply ahead.
• 10yr JGB futures were restrained by recent selling in global peers and after the 40yr JGB yield reached its highest since 2008.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures slightly softened after gaining yesterday on the back of geopolitical updates including reports that Israel’s army completed preparations to attack Iran which seemingly could be within days, while the latest private inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build in headline crude stockpiles.
• Private inventory data (bbls): Crude +1.6mln (exp. +0.3mln), Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -1.7mln), Gasoline -2mln (exp. -1.2mln), Cushing -0.2mln.
• Spot gold swung between gains and losses in which it gradually pulled back after stalling just shy of the USD 2,750/oz level, before rebounding late in the session to breach the key aforementioned level and print a new record high.
• Copper futures were on the back foot in tandem with the mild retreat across the commodities complex but with the downside cushioned amid the constructive mood in China.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin was subdued and trickled lower to test the USD 67,000 level to the downside.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• Chinese policy think tank CASS called for Beijing to issue CNY 2tln of special treasury bonds to set up a stock market stabilisation fund, according to 21st Century Business Herald.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israel’s army completed its preparations to attack Iran and it seems that it will be within days, according to Israel’s Channel 12 citing two sources.
• Israeli PM Netanyahu said in a meeting with US Secretary of State Blinken that there is a need to lead to a security and political change in the north, which would allow Israel to return its residents safely to their homes. Netanyahu added that the killing of Hamas leader Sinwar may have a positive effect on the return of Israeli hostages, the achievement of all the goals of the war, and the day after.
• US Secretary of State Blinken, in meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu, underscored the need to capitalise on Israel’s action to bring Sinwar to justice by securing a hostage release and ending the conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, Blinken sought during his meeting with Israeli PM Netanyahu to soften the response to Iran, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 13.
• US Secretary of State Blinken and Israeli PM Netanyahu discussed the concrete steps to capitalise on the death of Hamas leader Sinwar, a senior US official told Reuters. Blinken made it clear that Israel’s humanitarian aid steps so far have not been sufficient and Israeli leaders committed to act upon US requests laid out in Blinken’s letter on the need for more humanitarian aid. Furthermore, Blinken will no longer go to Jordan on Wednesday but he will be traveling to Saudi Arabia.
• White House said Israel must respond to the Iranian attack and it will not review what they will do, according to Al Jazeera.
• Pentagon said it cannot provide information regarding the Israeli attack on Iran and it is consulting with partners in the region in order to de-escalate, according to Al Jazeera.
• Israel’s army confirmed the killing of late Hezbollah leader Nasrallah’s presumed successor Hashem Safieddine.
• Israel will continue to attack Hezbollah even after the end of the operation in Lebanon until it withdraws behind the Litani, according to Sky News Arabia citing comments by Galant to Blinken.
• IDF spokesman said the Israeli Air Force intercepted a drone in Syrian airspace launched from the east. It was also reported that Israeli military said it intercepted two UAVs that crossed into Israel’s waters in the area of Eilat, while Islamic Resistance in Iraq announced it targeted Israel’s Eilat with drones.
• Palestinian media reported continuous aerial and artillery shelling on different areas in the northern Gaza Strip, as well as heavy Israeli shelling on Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip, according to Asharq News.

OTHER

• North Korean leader Kim inspected strategic missile bases, according to KCNA.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB policymakers are beginning to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral level in the current easing cycle, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• UK Chancellor Reeves is expected to impose national insurance on employer’s pension contribution in the Budget, according to The Times. It was separately reported that the UK Treasury is to slash overseas aid in the Budget as asylum seeker costs rise, according to FT.
• ECB’s Rehn said the growth outlook has weakened and this could increase disinflationary pressures. Rehn added that rate cuts are coming with the speed and scope to be decided later.
• ECB’s Villeroy said there is a risk that inflation undershoots the 2% target, especially if growth is weak and inflation could be at target in early 2025, while the economy is still on course for a soft landing but no take off is in sight.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

3C JAPAN

3D. CHINA

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

EU/

 

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL/HAMAS/

IRAN/USA/ISRAEL

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

We already announced his death in the same strike that killed Nasrallah. It would have been impossible for him to have survived that blast

(Jerusalem Post)

IDF confirms potential Hezbollah successor Hashem Safieddine killed in Beirut strike

Safieddine was the former head of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah’s cousin, who was killed by an Israeli strike.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 22, 2024 23:01Updated: OCTOBER 22, 2024 23:1

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-825762&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241021_e8dd7575db27269f7bc6f9dc56c560b0bff9902c&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The IDF eliminated Hashem Safieddine, who was set to become the head of Hezbollah, in a strike in Beirut three weeks ago, the IDF confirmed on Tuesday.

Safieddine was Hassan Nasrallah’s cousin, the former head of Hezbollah, who was killed in an Israeli strike.

According to the IDF, Safieddine had a significant influence on decision-making within the Hezbollah terror group.

Furthermore, during times when Nasrallah was absent from Lebanon, Safieddine filled in for him and served as Hezbollah’s Secretary-General. Over the years, Safi Al-Din directed terrorist activities against Israel and was involved in Hezbollah’s core decision-making, the IDF added.

Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi made a statement

IDF chief of staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi made a statement saying, “We have reached Nasrallah, his successor and most of Hezbollah’s top brass. We will know how to reach anyone who threatens the security of the citizens of the State of Israel.”

END

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH

Lebanon says Israeli strikes hit Beirut southern suburbs after evacuation call

By AFPToday, 11:49 pm

At least three Israeli strikes targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs Tuesday evening, following calls to evacuate, Lebanon’s official ANI news agency reports, hours after a strike flattened a building in the Hezbollah stronghold.

Two of the strikes hit the Laylake district, near a stadium, ANI reported, while AFP footage captured plumes of smoke rising from the area regularly shelled by Israel since intensifying its offensive last month.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/HAMAS/USA

Blinken meets PM, pushes Israel to publicly say it’s not aiming to besiege north Gaza

Netanyahu and US Secretary of State discuss hostage deal possibilities in wake of Sinwar’s death; Gallant: IDF will keep operating against Hezbollah even after ground op in Lebanon

By Lazar Berman Follow
and Jacob Magid Follow
Today, 11:27 pm

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, left, meets with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem, October 22, 2024. (Haim Zach/GPO)

Looking to capitalize on the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met on Tuesday to discuss a path forward on a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, as well as the humanitarian situation in the Strip’s north and the possibility of joining forces against Iran.

According to US State Department Spokesman Matthew Miller, Blinken “underscored the need to capitalize on Israel’s successful action to bring Yahya Sinwar to justice by securing the release of all hostages and ending the conflict in Gaza.”

The Israeli readout expressed a similar sentiment on this matter, saying that Netanyahu emphasized in the two-and-a-half-hour meeting that Sinwar’s death “may have a positive effect on the return of the abductees, the achievement of all the goals of the war.”

The US has repeatedly described Sinwar as the major obstacle to an agreement, and Israeli officials last week told The Times of Israel that he had rejected out of hand any attempt to make progress on a potential deal.

No major talks have been scheduled in the days since Sinwar’s death, though Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar was in Cairo yesterday to discuss new ideas for a deal.

Israeli officials are exploring both a limited deal that would see several hostages freed for a short ceasefire, and a comprehensive deal that would end the wars in Lebanon and in Gaza while freeing all hostages.

A banner at a protest in Tel Aviv calling for a hostage deal reads ‘Your revenge has been served, bring us comfort. Bring them all home now!’ in reference to the recent killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, in Tel Aviv, October 19, 2024. (Yael Gadot)

The US, Egypt and Qatar have brokered months of indirect talks between Israel and Hamas, trying to strike a deal in which the terror group would release dozens of hostages in return for a lasting ceasefire and the release of Palestinian security prisoners.

Netanyahu’s office called the meeting “friendly and productive.”

The premier and the secretary also discussed plans for the postwar phase in Gaza, a topic that Netanyahu has been wary of expounding upon publicly. However, the Israeli readout of the meeting did say that Netanyahu stressed that Sinwar’s death could also have a positive impact on planning for “the day after the war.”

Israel is quietly exploring ways to replace Hamas’s civil rule in Gaza, Israeli officials told The Times of Israel, including the use of foreign private security companies to distribute humanitarian aid.

People pass by a newly painted graffiti depicting Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar, days after he was killed by Israeli forces in Gaza, in Tel Aviv, Israel, on Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024. (AP/Oded Balilty)

According to Miller, Blinken spoke about the “importance of charting a new path forward in the post-conflict period that allows Palestinians to rebuild their lives and provides governance, security and reconstruction for Gaza.”

He also “emphasized the need for Israel to take additional steps to increase and sustain the flow of humanitarian assistance into Gaza and ensure that assistance reaches civilians throughout Gaza.”

A US official briefing reporters on condition of anonymity after the meeting said that in the meeting, Netanyahu had recognized the “seriousness” of US warnings to increase aid to Palestinians in Gaza.

“They recognize the seriousness with which we have expressed our concern about the current situation, and are committed to responding to it and acting upon requests,” said the official.

Blinken also discussed with Netanyahu the mechanisms to be put in place, including “transitional structures” needed for postwar governance in Gaza, the US official said.

No aid was allowed into northern Gaza by Israel for a full two-week period recently, leading aid groups and governments to sound alarm over the dangerous conditions in northern Gaza, where several hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are believed to still reside. US President Joe Biden’s administration also issued a letter warning that Israel’s continued receipt of offensive US weapons was at risk if Jerusalem didn’t take massive steps to address the humanitarian crisis by mid-November.

Journalists film in front of destroyed buildings in Jabaliya, in the northern Gaza Strip, on October 9, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)

The halt on aid led to reports that Israel was implementing the so-called “General’s Plan” to lay siege to northern Gaza. The IDF has denied this and said Tuesday that it had allowed 237 trucks into Gaza over the past nine days following a directive from the political echelon. However, Netanyahu has yet to renounce that plan, and a former deputy chief of the National Security Council accused the security cabinet of having secretly approved the controversial proposal, which he called a “war crime.”

Israeli leaders told Blinken in Tuesday’s meetings that it is not the country’s policy to isolate northern Gaza and that they have not been trying to implement the General’s Plan.

“We said, okay, then you should go to greater lengths to say that publicly,” the US official told reporters.

Blinken was on his 11th trip to the region since the Hamas attacks on October 7 of last year. His visit, which includes stops in a number of allied Arab countries, comes two weeks ahead of a closely contested presidential election in the US.

IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon, in a handout image published October 22, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

The two men also discussed Israel’s expanding operation in Lebanon, as ground forces continued to uproot Hezbollah infrastructure along the border, while the Israeli Air Force conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and in Beirut.

Miller said they went over “ongoing efforts to reach a diplomatic resolution along the Blue Line that includes full implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and allows civilians on both sides of the border to return to their homes.” The Blue Line runs along the Israel-Lebanon border, and the largely unimplemented 2006 resolution stipulated that Hezbollah cannot have any armed presence within some 30 kilometers of it.

Netanyahu stressed the need for a “security and political change” along Israel’s northern border, said the Prime Minister’s Office.

On the broader Iranian threat, Netanyahu raised “the need for both countries to join forces against” Tehran and thanked Blinken for the support of the US “in the fight against Iran’s axis of evil and terrorism,” the Israeli readout said.

Damage caused to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea in a drone attack on October 19, 2024. (Courtesy)

The readout noted that Blinken expressed his “shock” over the “Iranian attempt through Hezbollah to assassinate the prime minister of Israel” in a drone strike on Netanyahu’s Caesarea home over the weekend, adding that this was a very serious and unprecedented attack. Netanyahu and his wife weren’t home at the time of the attack.

Netanyahu thanked Blinken for his stance and asserted that the drone strike cannot be ignored.

Blinken also met with other top officials, including President Isaac Herzog and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in Tel Aviv on October 22, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

According to his office, Gallant told Blinken that Israel “will continue to systematically attack all of Hezbollah’s units” even after the ground operation ends, until residents of northern Israel can return to their homes and Hezbollah forces retreat from southern Lebanon.

He also insisted that it is crucial that the US stand with Israel after the Jewish state strikes Iran in retaliation for an October 1 attack in which Tehran launched some 200 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state.

“The US’s joint stand with Israel after our attack in Iran will strengthen regional deterrence and weaken the axis of evil,” said Gallant, according to his office.

Missiles launched from Iran towards Israel are seen in the over Jerusalem, on October 1, 2024. (Noam Revkin Fenton/Flash90)

An official on Blinken’s plane said he would discourage any move by Israel against Iran that could massively escalate regional conflict.

Blinken was set to travel to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday for talks on normalization with Israel, a change from previous plans to head to Jordan, a US official told reporters on condition of anonymity, attributing the change to scheduling issues.

The normalization deal is widely seen as dead in the water, as Riyadh is now conditioning it on the establishment of a Palestinian state — a nonstarter for Israel.

Blinken’s tour comes as Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has been traveling the region in recent days to try and build support ahead of Israel’s threatened retaliatory strike. Speaking in Kuwait on Tuesday, he said Gulf Arab countries had assured him they would not allow their territory to be used for any Israeli strike.

“All the neighbors assured us that they will not allow their lands and air to be used against Iran,” Araghchi said, according to the state-run IRNA news agency. “This is an expectation from all friendly and neighboring countries and we consider this a sign of friendship.”

Gulf Arab nations like the UAE and Qatar host major US military installations, and there are concerns that an all-out regional war could draw them in. Iran has repeatedly vowed to respond to any Israeli strike.

Blinken landed just hours after Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets into central Israel, setting off air raid sirens in the country’s most populated areas and its international airport, but causing no apparent damage or injuries.

The Israeli military said it intercepted most of the five projectiles, with one landing in an open area.

A total of 65 projectiles were fired from Lebanon into Israel on Tuesday, mostly targeting the country’s north.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Israel, October 22, 2024 (David Azagury, US Embassy Jerusalem)

In parallel to Blinken’s trip, US special envoy Amos Hochstein was in the Lebanese capital on Monday amid efforts to find a diplomatic solution to the fighting, telling Lebanese officials that the conflict has “escalated out of control.”

After meeting with Lebanon’s parliament speaker Nabih Berri, a Hezbollah ally, Hochstein said the US was aiming to end the conflict “as soon as possible.”

Agencies contributed to this report.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Blinken’s departure delayed after sirens in Tel Aviv, central Israel, IDF intercepts rockets

The Israel Police noted that it had received reports of shrapnel falling in Herzliya and Ramat Hasharon and that a vehicle had sustained damage.

By SAM HALPERNOCTOBER 23, 2024 08:14Updated: OCTOBER 23, 2024 10:26

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Rocket alarms that blared in Tel Aviv and other areas of central and northern Israel delayed the departure of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, CNN reported on Wednesday morning.

Sirens had also sounded in Herzliya and Nazareth.

The IDF announced that it had intercepted two projectiles that had been fired from Lebanon into Israel, adding that the incident was under review.

The Israel Police later noted that it had received reports of shrapnel falling in Herzliya and Ramat Hasharon and that a vehicle had sustained damage.

No injuries reported

The Police noted that officers subsequently worked to cordon off the scene and that no injuries had been reported.

Israel’s emergency medical response service, Magen David Adom, also stated that it had not received any reports of casualties.

Hezbollah later claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it had targeted the “Glilot base of the Military Intelligence Unit 8200 in the suburbs of Tel Aviv with a qualitative missile salvo.”

This is a developing story.

END

ISRAEL LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH

IDF eliminates three Hezbollah sector commanders, 70 more terrorists

The three sector commanders had reportedly overseen many attacks on civilians in Israel, including rocket and anti-tank missile attacks on communities in the North.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 23, 2024 09:01Updated: OCTOBER 23, 2024 09:39

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fmiddle-east%2Farticle-825791&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241021_e8dd7575db27269f7bc6f9dc56c560b0bff9902c&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Over the past two days, the Hezbollah commanders of the Jibchit, Jouaiya, and Qana sectors were killed by Israeli air force strikes in Lebanon, the IDF stated on Wednesday morning.

The three sector commanders had reportedly overseen many attacks on civilians in Israel, including rocket and anti-tank missile attacks on communities in the North.

Additionally, Khalil Mohammad Amhaz, a terrorist operative in Hezbollah’s Aerial Unit, was killed by the IAF on Monday, the IDF added.

According to Israel’s military, Amhaz’s role in the unit made him responsible for the development and launching of explosive and intelligence-gathering drones into Israel.

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3788665&url=www.jpost.comIsrael strikes terrorists operating in Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon. October 24, 2024. (Credit: IDF Spokesperson’s Unit)

Furthermore, since Tuesday morning, some 70 terrorists were eliminated via ground encounters and aerial strikes during ongoing “limited, localized, targeted raids against Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure and operatives,” the military added.

Around 20 of these terrorists reportedly posed an immediate threat to IDF troops, and were eliminated by the IAF and troops of the 36th Division, the IDF noted.

During this operational activity, troops uncovered and destroyed subterranean terror infrastructure and weapons caches.

The IDF reported that rockets, anti-tank missile launchers, mortars, and munitions were among the ordnance destroyed.

IDF activities in Gaza

Concurrently, the IDF reported that troops also killed terrorists and located weapons in the Gaza Strip during ongoing operations in the Jabalya area.

In one such encounter, the military stated that an Israeli aircraft struck a group of armed terrorists and that after the strike, secondary explosions went off, indicating “the presence of significant quantities of weapons.”

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Israeli forces also reportedly captured dozens of terrorists as troops enabled civilians in the Strip to evacuate along humanitarian routes.

end

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/OPINION PIECE

Will Israel assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei? – opinion

The idea of assassinating the supreme leader may recede slightly in favor of more vital targets. These could include Iran’s nuclear and missile program facilities.

By SALEM ALKETBIOCTOBER 23, 2024 07:26

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fopinion%2Farticle-825719&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241021_e8dd7575db27269f7bc6f9dc56c560b0bff9902c&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

The image of Israeli assassination targets recently shown on Israel’s Channel 14 and picked up by the BBC featured several figures allegedly wanted by Israel but did not include the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. 

Those listed included Iraqi Shi’ite cleric Ali Al Sistani, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar (killed by the IDF last week), Hezbollah Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem, Yemeni Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Al Houthi, and Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani.

However, recent strikes and intelligence breaches targeting Iranian security institutions and their affiliated proxies, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon, make the scenario of assassinating Khamenei highly plausible. 

This possibility is compelling Iranian security agencies to exercise extreme caution. The situation is especially critical given the collapse of the tacitly agreed-upon rules of engagement and conflict boundaries between Iran and Israel.

Several factors place Khamenei within the scope of potential Israeli targets, even if his name was absent from the publicized “assassination list.” 

Indeed, this very omission could be considered an indicator of purposeful misdirection and deception. Such tactics are highly likely in these circumstances.

A list that included Sistani 

FIRST, THE list was not limited to military leaders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iranian proxies. It also included Sistani, a Shi’ite religious authority of stature. 

This is noteworthy because Sistani does not carry the same weight as Khamenei in managing the conflict with Israel. 

He also lacks the authority to direct Iran-aligned proxies to participate in the so-called “axis of resistance.” While Sistani’s political and ideological views are akin to those of Khamenei, he lacks authority over the militant Iraqi Shi’ite organizations. 

These groups receive orders directly from the IRGC. It can be said that Sistani’s relationship with these groups is limited to the spiritual aspect, particularly in terms of Shi’ite unity from Iran to Lebanon and beyond.

---

---

Sistani’s statements about the ongoing conflict between Hezbollah and Israel in Lebanon follow the Iranian political line; however, they focus on providing aid and emphasizing the necessity of helping the Lebanese face this crisis. 

He also issued an emotionally charged statement mourning Hassan Nasrallah, describing him as the “great martyr.” His sons held a three-day mourning period for Nasrallah in Najaf and Karbala, the two holiest cities in Iraq for Shi’ites.

Sistani strongly endorses the “support” operations carried out by Iranian-backed proxies against Israel which contributes in great measure to the alignment of pro-Iran Shi’ite organizations and their execution of missile strikes against Israel. 

Here, we can point to Sistani’s role in mobilizing Iraqi Shi’ite power during the confrontation with ISIS by issuing his famous Sufficiency Jihad fatwa in 2016 and rallying all factions under the banner of what is known as Iraq’s Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Forces.

However, Sistani does not appear directly in the conflictual relationship between Iran and Israel. This conflict involves dimensions that go beyond religious issues and include struggles for hegemony and strategic influence amid the increasing clash between the Iranian expansionist project and Israel’s desire to ensure its security and stability. 

With Sistani capable of mobilizing most, though not all of the Iraqi Shi’ite front, it stands to reason that Israel might be considering adding Khamenei himself to the assassination list. 

The political and security costs would involve only slight differences in both cases. Both are major Shi’ite leaders, and the expected Shi’ite anger in the event of the assassination of either would be comparable.

It might even be greater in Sistani’s case, given the factor of power struggle within the circle close to the Iranian supreme leader.

Khamenei enters the circle of Israel’s potential targets 

SECOND, THE current geopolitical climate – which Israel considers unique – pushes Khamenei into the circle of potential Israeli targets. 

This is true in terms of the successive victories Israel is achieving in weakening Iran’s power and its regional proxies; it is also applicable to the current international and regional support for Israeli military operations to neutralize the Iranian threat. 

It is evident that the succession and escalation of Israeli assassination operations against prominent Iranian leaders or Iran loyalists has not resulted in any significant cost to Israel; the reaction of the Islamic Republic did not exceed verbal threats and the firing of antiquated missiles – which were intercepted by Israel and its allies – to satisfy the psychological needs of the pro-Iranian public. 

These minimal consequences will encourage Israel to target Iran’s top leaders, including Khamenei himself. 

It turns out Israel’s successive and escalating assassinations of prominent Iranian or pro-Iranian leaders have not, as of now, resulted in a cost that would compel the Israeli security establishment to discontinue of these bold operations, even if they hit the head of the Iranian regime.

What are the strategic assessments? 

THIRD, THERE are strategic assessments that view the scenario of targeting Khamenei as potentially the least costly and most impactful. 

This scenario would have implications for disrupting the calculations of Iranian regime leaders and igniting conflict within the narrow circle of power. It could also create the conditions to spark popular unrest among those already primed to challenge the regime. 

This is being fueled by deteriorating economic and security conditions and the country’s preoccupation with ongoing external confrontations and conflicts.

The scenario of the assassination of Khamenei has become a genuine Iranian concern. It is no longer dismissed by the security apparatus there, especially after the series of targeted attacks by Israel against Nasrallah – and reportedly against Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. Doubts and unanswered questions surrounding the death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi, when his helicopter crashed in May, have also contributed to this concern.

This explains reports confirming the rush to move the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader to a secure location after receiving news of Nasrallah’s assassination. 

The depth of Israeli intelligence penetration of IRGC security agencies and its proxies has become apparent. This makes the possibility of reaching the head of the Iranian power hierarchy a real concern for many, especially for the leaders of the IRGC.

The decisive factor in all of the above hinges on the assessment by Israeli decision-makers of the cost-benefit analysis being conducted during this period, which aims to maximize Israel’s strategic gains from the turbulent regional scene.

In my opinion, the idea of assassinating the supreme leader may recede slightly in favor of more vital targets. These could include Iran’s nuclear and missile program facilities.

This depends on Israel’s operational capability to carry out an effective strike against these facilities without the risk of facing a second strike. It also depends on the IRGC’s capability to retaliate against the potential Israeli attack. In this case, the scenario seems open to all possibilities, including all-out war.

Subjecting Iranian nuclear and missile capabilities to a failed or limited-impact strike could compel the IRGC to use all available offensive capabilities against Israel. They might do so without restraint or political calculations.

The writer is a UAE political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.

END

/

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/WEDNESDAY MORNING

Rockets target central and northern Israel, IDF strikes Hezbollah terrorists

Shrapnel falls on central Israel after Hezbollah rockets • IDF confirms potential Hezbollah successor Hashem Safieddine killed

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

‘IDF to act forcefully’: Israel strikes Lebanon’s Tyre hours after warning residents to evacuate

The reports of the strikes came approximately three hours after the IDF called on residents of Tyre, Lebanon, to evacuate the area.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 23, 2024 08:57Updated: OCTOBER 23, 2024 12:59

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Israel conducted an airstrike on the Lebanese port city of Tyre on Wednesday, witnesses in the area told Reuters.

The reports of the strikes came approximately three hours after the IDF called on residents of the Lebanese city to evacuate the area.

Arab Media Spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted the announcement on X/Twitter, emphasizing that the residents were required to move out of the locations marked in red in the accompanying graphic.

#عاجل بيان عاجل لسكان منطقة صور في لبنان
⭕️الانذار موجهة تحديدًا إلى المتواجدون في المباني بين الشوارع: الحيرام, جعفر شرف الدين, أبو ديب و شارع الاثار

⭕️أنشطة حزب الله تجبر جيش الدفاع على العمل ضده وبقوة حيث لا تنوي المساس بكم

⭕️عليكم بالأبتعاد فوراً الى خارج المنطقة المحددة… pic.twitter.com/5ngkUehGJm

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) October 23, 2024

Hezbollah’s endangerment 

Adraee also noted that the residents should head “north of the Awali River.”

“Anyone who is near Hezbollah facilities and combat equipment is putting his life in danger,” he added. “Hezbollah’s activities force the IDF to act against it forcefully, as it does not intend to harm you.”

The area highlighted in red by the graphic was bordered by Jaafar Sharaf Al-Din Street in the west, Hiram Street in the north, Al-Athar Street in the east, and Abu Deeb Street in the south.

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH LEBANON/

Watch: Building In Beirut Collapses In Its Own Footprint After Israeli Strike

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 02:45 AM

A missile fired by an Israeli fighter jet has absolutely obliterated a residential building in Beirut’s southern suburb of Chiyah. The airstrike came amid a series of attacks on the area, shortly after Israel’s military issued warnings and evacuation orders for residents of the building and of the area.

International media correspondents knew the strike was coming, and so were able to set up nearby and capture footage up-close, even including images of the missile flying through the air milliseconds before the strike. The building immediately collapsed in its own footprint.

⚡️Clearer video of the enemy’s strike on Dahye earlier today pic.twitter.com/wSw2pqOzOr

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 22, 2024

The projectile may have been a bunker-busting munition, given the way the building collapsed onto itself, to the point of nothing being left.

The last several days have seen IDF warplanes bomb locations said to be sources of Hezbollah financing, including bank branches linked to the Shia organization.

But public hospitals have had their grounds struck as well. Israel’s military has shocked many by proclaiming that Hezbollah hides money or gold beneath the medical facilities which have come under attack.

Surreal moment of waiting for an #Israel-i airstrike on the edge of Ghobeiry. #Beirut #Lebanon pic.twitter.com/ylny2pdO6u

— Nabih (@nabihbulos) October 22, 2024

The UN has said it is “appalled” by an attack on Rafik Hariri University Hospital:

UN rights chief Volker Turk said he was “appalled” by a deadly Israeli strike nearly a southern Beirut hospital yesterday, demanding a “prompt and thorough investigation”.

“I am appalled by the Israeli strike near Rafik Hariri University Hospital in Beirut’s densely populated Jinah neighborhood that reportedly killed at least 18 people, including four children, and wounded 60 others,” Turk said in a statement.

“The fundamental principles of international humanitarian law concerning the protection of civilians must be respected.”

Lebanon’s Health Ministry confirmed Tuesday at least 18 people were killed in that attack, including four children. Nearly 2,500 Lebanese total have been killed in Israeli attacks since the start of the conflict, both civilians and combatants alike.

The number of wounded from the same attack close to the Rafik Hariri University Hospital is at least 60, the ministry said. A staff member at the hospital, Dr Abu-Sittah, was outraged and had this to say:

“The size of the country is bigger but the tactic and centrality of the strategy are identical. To ethnically cleanse an area you need to dismantle the healthcare system in it. When you look at the south of Lebanon and Beirut’s southern suburbs that’s what they’re doing.”

In northern Israel, Hezbollah has continued sanding many drones on the key port city of Haifa. Alarms have been frequently sounding through the whole area.

The Israeli army has also belatedly confirmed the killing of Hezbollah Hashem Safieddine during a prior airstrike on Beirut earlier this month. He was widely expected to succeed Nasrallah as Secretary-General of Hezbollah.

⚡️Hezb-Allah drones currently terrorising the sky of Haifa pic.twitter.com/sYd2rmVmfL

— War Monitor (@WarMonitors) October 22, 2024

In Gaza, fierce fighting has return to the north of the Strip. Hamas has issued a statement urging the global community “to stop the crime of forced displacement, ethnic cleansing and massacres” happening in northern Gaza.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is currently in Israel, seeking to discuss the potential for a ceasefire, but that prospect seems more distant than ever at this point.

ISRAEL/HAMAS///

Hamas is shooting Gazan civilians who try to evacuate Jabaliya, IDF paramedic says

Cpl. Shai Gilboa photographed providing medical assistance to a Palestinian woman injured in the face by Hamas gunfire while trying to get to a designated safe zone

By ToI StaffToday, 6:53 am

Cpl. Shai Gilboa, a paramedic in the IDF’s 9th Battalion, treats a Gaza woman with an injury on her lower face that she said was the result of Hamas’s attempts to prevent civilians from fleeing Jabaliya in northern Gaza to designated safe zones, October 21, 2024. (Via social media, used in accordance with clause 27a of the copyright law)

Civilians in Gaza are being shot by Hamas terrorists while trying to evacuate from Jabaliya in the north of the Strip amid a renewed IDF offensive, an Israeli paramedic charged in an interview Monday, after she was photographed providing medical treatment to a Palestinian woman suffering from wounds to the face.

Cpl. Shai Gilboa, who is serving as a paramedic in the IDF’s 9th Battalion, told Channel 12 that a photograph of her tending to a woman with an injury on her lower face was the result of Hamas’s attempts to prevent civilians from heeding Israeli orders to evacuate to designated safe zones as fighting rages anew across northern Gaza.

“Our battalion went into action to exert as much military pressure as possible on Hamas terrorists, who held the civilian population in the area and forbade them from evacuating to a safe area,” Gilboa recounted.

During the operation, she said, terrorists in the area had opened fire and wounded some of the Gazans who were trying to flee.

“The wounded came to us and we provided them with first aid in the field, which mostly entailed stopping the bleeding,” she said.

From there, she explained, they were evacuated from the area and directed toward “local medical forces” in the area for further treatment.

פרמדיקית מגדוד 9, צק"ח גבעתי, מטפלת בפלסטינית מבוגרת בג'באליה.@amit_segal pic.twitter.com/1vxI2Ke96F

— החדשות – N12 (@N12News) October 21, 2024

She said that while her battalion’s primary objective is to “fight against and subdue” Hamas activity in northern Gaza, they are also determined to evacuate as much of the civilian population to safety as possible.

Asked whether the civilians speak to the troops, and what the relationship is between the Israeli forces and the Palestinians in the war-torn areas they are sent to operate in, Gilboa admitted that the language barrier was one of several reasons that interactions tended to be limited.

“But they smile at us, they wave goodbye at us,” she said, “they curse Hamas in front of us.”

“Not only are they not afraid of us, a lot of them are on our side,” she added.

IDF paramedic Cpl. Shai Gilboa speaks to Channel 12 after she was photographed providing medical assistance to a wounded Palestinian woman in Gaza, October 21, 2024. (Screenshot, used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

The IDF said earlier this week that hundreds of Palestinian civilians have listened to calls for them to evacuate Jabaliya in recent days amid a renewed IDF offensive aimed at preventing Hamas from regrouping in the area.

The evacuations were taking place despite the Hamas-run interior ministry ordering civilians earlier this month to ignore the instructions to relocate to other safer areas in the Strip, because “the occupation is conducting continued bombing and killing every day in the areas it claims to be safe.”

Evacuating people walk with their belongings in the Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip on October 9, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)

The terror organization further accused Israel of carrying out an intentional “massacre against the civilians” in Jabaliya as a way to punish them for refusing to leave their homes.

Reports of Hamas harming civilians trying to flee to safer areas of Gaza are not new, and the IDF has for years accused the terror group of using human shields and embedding its operatives deep within the civilian population to protect itself amid fighting with Israel, and says that it seeks to avoid civilian casualties.

Earlier in October, the IDF published a recording of a conversation that it said was between a Gazan man and an Israeli soldier from Unit 504, responsible for human intelligence on the battlefield, in which the purported Gazan said that Hamas was beating residents of Jabaliya and preventing them from leaving.

“The problem is that we listen to the army’s instructions and want to leave to the Muwasi [humanitarian zone], but there are people who come out against us and start hitting us with sticks,” the man allegedly said to the soldier.

“We want to leave,” he continued. “We took our things and we want to leave now and they are hitting us and telling us to return home. What can we do?”

The IDF did not say when the conversation took place.

Israel estimates that tens of thousands of Palestinians have remained in northern Gaza throughout the last year of fighting, despite repeated calls for them to evacuate to designated humanitarian zones. It believes that among those who stayed there are thousands of Hamas operatives who survived previous rounds of fighting with Israeli forces.

Israel has been at war with the Hamas terror group in Gaza since October 7, 2023, when thousands of Hamas-led terrorists invaded southern Israel, killing some 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages.

The Hamas-run Gaza health ministry says more than 42,000 people in the Strip have been killed or are presumed dead in the fighting so far, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel said it had killed some 17,000 combatants in battle as of August, in addition to 1,000 terrorists killed inside Israel on October 7.

Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip stands at 357.

Lazar Berman contributed to this report.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS/UNITED NATIONS BUILDING

Ladies and Gentlemen: this major operation to eliminate a huge number of Hamas operatives was in a UN facility. All the Hamas terrorists were killed

(JerusalemPost)

Nine hours, 14 floors, enemies on all sides: IDF soldiers recount raid into URNWA facility in Gaza

By the time they reached the fifth floor, the situation intensified. An IED struck their armored vehicle, injuring some of the team members.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 22, 2024 22:10Updated: OCTOBER 23, 2024 05:03

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Soldiers from the IDF’s Multidimensional Unit shared insights into a complex and high-risk raid on a 14-story UNRWA building in the Gaza Strip, the IDF cleared for publication on Tuesday.

The mission focused on a 14-story building used by Hamas operatives and located within a UNRWA facility. The operation aimed to dismantle terrorist infrastructure and eliminate key figures.

St.-Sgt. C., a combat soldier in the unit, spoke about the importance and risk of the mission. “We placed enormous significance on this operation,” he said. “We had a detailed battle plan supported by precise intelligence, and our goal was to track down Hamas leaders hiding inside.”

The mission proved perilous from the get-go, as the team encountered several improvised explosive devices (IEDs) while advancing toward the building in their armored vehicle.

Gunfire erupted from the target structure as they approached. “The radio was reporting armed individuals in the vicinity,” Staff Sergeant C. recalled. “We knew we were heading straight into a confrontation with the enemy, who was prepared and waiting for us.”

Upon reaching the building, the soldiers faced their first obstacle—blocked entrances. “As the breacher, it’s my responsibility to clear the way for the team,” Staff Sergeant C. explained. His role required him to break through any barriers preventing the unit’s progress.

By the time they reached the fifth floor, the situation intensified. An IED struck their armored vehicle, injuring some of the team members. Despite their concern for their wounded comrades, the soldiers knew they had no option but NOT turn back. They continued the mission, advancing up nine more floors on their own.

A bigger operation than expected 

“The building was enormous, and we worked floor by floor, systematically clearing each one,” said Staff Sergeant R., another soldier in the unit. “We discovered large stockpiles of weapons, including grenades, IEDs, and equipment from Hamas’s naval commandos. Additionally, we found critical intelligence documents that further revealed the scale of the operation.”

As the raid unfolded, the team encountered a significant number of Hamas fighters hidden throughout the structure. “It quickly became clear that this was a much larger operation than we had anticipated,” Staff Sergeant R. noted. “We gathered a wealth of intelligence alongside the terrorists and weapons we captured.”

The mission, which lasted nine hours, tested the endurance and adaptability of the unit. “We began at 2 a.m. and didn’t finish until 11 a.m.,” Staff Sergeant C. concluded. “No sleep, no food—just intense combat. But that’s the strength of this unit. We are trained to adapt and evolve in real-time, and that’s what we did—staying focused, determined, and working as one team.”

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

IDF says it struck Hezbollah weapons manufacturing and storage sites in Beirut

By Emanuel Fabian  FollowToday, 10:29 am

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted an area in Beirut’s southern suburbs on October 22, 2024. (IBRAHIM AMRO / AFP)

Overnight, several Hezbollah weapons manufacturing and storage sites were struck by Israeli fighter jets in Beirut, the IDF says.

According to the military, the Hezbollah sites were embedded in civilian buildings in Beirut’s southern suburb, known as Dahiyeh.

Before the strikes, the IDF issued evacuation warnings to civilians near the buildings.

The military releases footage of the strikes.

מטוסי קרב של חיל האוויר תקפו במהלך הלילה, בהכוונה מודיעינית מדויקת של אגף המודיעין, מספר אתרים לייצור ולאחסון אמצעי לחימה ומפקדות של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה, אשר מוקמו בתוך בניינים אזרחיים בדאחייה שבביירות>> pic.twitter.com/kFcjKaBP6n

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) October 23, 2024

END

IDF reveals: Six Al Jazeera journalists are Hamas, PIJ terrorists

The exposed journalists are part of Hamas’s military wing operating as the vanguard of Hamas’s propaganda war against Israel.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 23, 2024 17:00Updated: OCTOBER 23, 2024 17:34

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The IDF announced on Wednesday that six journalists actively working for Al Jazeera were members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ).

The IDF says that due to intelligence recovered from the Gaza Strip during military operations, they can reveal that Anas Al-Sharif, Alaa Salama, Hossam Shabat, Ashraf Saraj, Ismail Abu Amr, and Talal Aruki are all affiliated with the military wings of either Hamas or PIJ.

Ismail Abu Amr was injured several months ago in Gaza by an IDF attack; during that period, Al Jazeera denied his membership in Hamas. Documents recovered by the IDF showed this was untrue.

Some of the documents include personnel tables, terrorist training courses, phone books, and salary documents for terrorists.

Al Jazeera employed active terrorists

The IDF said that this “unequivocally proves that they function as military terrorist operatives of the terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip.”

The IDF also said that these documents prove Al Jazeera has employed them simultaneously.

The exposed journalists are part of Hamas’s military wing operating as the vanguard of Hamas’s propaganda war against Israel.

END

Gallant at IAF base: After we strike in Iran, world will understand all our training

Defense minister says those who dreamed of destroying Israel last year have paid ‘heavy price’; Austin says employees of his office not being probed for leak of Israeli prep for strike

By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and AgenciesToday, 5:19 pm

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (right) speaks to Israeli Air Force pilots and crews at the Hatzerim Airbase, October 23, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant on Wednesday told pilots and air crews at an airforce base that “after we strike in Iran, everyone will understand what you did in the preparation and training process.”

Visiting the Hatzerim base ahead of Israel’s promised response to Iran’s October 1 major ballistic missile attack, Gallant said, “Everyone who dreamed a year ago of beating us and attacking us paid a heavy price and are no longer in that dream.”

Israel has held several major drills simulating long-range strikes on Iran over the years in preparation for a possible confrontation with Tehran. On Tuesday, the FBI said that it was investigating the unauthorized release of US classified documents on Israel’s latest preparations for a potential retaliatory attack.

Some social media posts in recent days singled out a US Defense Department employee as supposedly being under investigation for the leak, but offered no evidence.

Speaking to reporters in Rome, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said there were no indications any employees from the Office of the Secretary of Defense were being probed for the leak.

The documents are attributed to the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and National Security Agency and note that Israel is still moving military assets in place to conduct a military strike in response to Iran’s ballistic missile assault.

Iranian demonstrators burn representations of the Israeli and US flags in an anti-Israel gathering at Felestin (Palestine) Square in Tehran, Iran, October 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

The Islamic Republic has been bracing for an Israeli reprisal after its latest direct attack on Israel, where it fired 200 ballistic missiles that sent most of Israel to bomb shelters on October 1, killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank, and caused minor damage in residential areas and at military bases. Iran said the missile assault came in response to strikes in Lebanon that killed the top leadership of the Iran-backed Hezbollah terror group and a July blast in Tehran that killed Hamas politburo head, Ismail Haniyeh.

Israel has signaled that its expected retaliation for the missile barrage could be widened as a result of a Hezbollah drone attack on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s private home in Caesarea on Saturday, which the premier has referred to as an attempted assassination by “agents of Iran.

END

LEBANON/ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Hezbollah targets central and northern Israel, as IDF expands Lebanon strikes to Tyre

Two long-range rockets intercepted as terror group says it targeted Glilot base near Tel Aviv; IDF strikes weapons caches in Beirut area, ground troops destroy tunnels near border

By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Agencies and ToI StaffToday, 3:08 pmUpdated at 3:13 p

Smoke rises by destroyed buildings from the site of an Israeli airstrike the previous day on the neighborhood of Mreijeh in Beirut’s southern suburbs on October 23, 2024. (AFP)

The Israel Defense Forces appeared to expand its strikes on Hezbollah to the Lebanese city of Tyre on Wednesday, Lebanon’s state media reported, as the Iran-backed terror group filed multiple volleys of rockets targeting central and northern Israel.

“Four strikes targeted the city of Tyre after the enemy threatened to bomb it,” the National News Agency said, following earlier reporting that “an enemy drone targeted” a “street in Tyre.”

Earlier in the day, Israel issued an urgent evacuation warning to residents of the city, ahead of airstrikes against Hezbollah sites.

The warning, which covered a large portion of the city, was the first broad evacuation call issued for Tyre since the start of the war, compared to previous orders that were directed at specific buildings.

Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, posted a map of the targeted areas on X, warning civilians: “Hezbollah’s activity forces the IDF to act in the area you are in.

“The IDF does not want to harm you. You must immediately move away from the area marked in red and head north to the Awali River. Anyone who is near Hezbollah personnel, facilities and weapons of Hezbollah is putting their life in danger!” Adraee wrote.

#عاجل بيان عاجل لسكان منطقة صور في لبنان
⭕️الانذار موجهة تحديدًا إلى المتواجدون في المباني بين الشوارع: الحيرام, جعفر شرف الدين, أبو ديب و شارع الاثار

⭕️أنشطة حزب الله تجبر جيش الدفاع على العمل ضده وبقوة حيث لا تنوي المساس بكم

⭕️عليكم بالأبتعاد فوراً الى خارج المنطقة المحددة… pic.twitter.com/5ngkUehGJm

— افيخاي ادرعي (@AvichayAdraee) October 23, 2024

The warning came after Israel struck several Hezbollah weapons manufacturing and storage sites the night before in Dahiyeh, the terror group’s stronghold in the southern suburbs of the capital Beirut.

The targeted sites were embedded in civilian buildings, and the IDF warned civilians who were near the buildings beforehand to evacuate.

Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon have killed three Hezbollah regional unit commanders in the past two days, the IDF said Wednesday, saying fighter jets took out the commanders of Hezbollah’s Jibchit, Jouaiyya and Qana areas.

The commanders were responsible for rocket and missile fire on Israeli towns from their respective areas, the IDF said.

People watch a building collapse after being hit by an Israeli airstrike in Ghobeiri, Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

The military also said that Khalil Muhammad Amhaz, a member of Hezbollah’s aerial forces, known as Unit 127 and responsible for drone attacks on Israel, was killed in a Monday airstrike in northern Lebanon.

The IDF described Amhaz as a “central source of knowledge” in the drone unit.

Meanwhile, some 70 Hezbollah operatives were killed in airstrikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon between Tuesday and Wednesday, the military said, adding that troops also located and destroyed tunnels and caches of weapons.

In southern Lebanon, reservist IDF ground troops of the Iron Fist Armored Brigade uncovered a weapons cache in a mosque, discovering ammunition and a recoilless rifle outside the mosque, as well as RPGs, sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles, and other weapons inside it.

The IDF says troops operating in southern Lebanon uncovered a cache of weapons in a mosque.

Reservists of the Iron First Armored Brigade found ammunition and a recoilless rifle outside the mosque, while inside they located RPGs,sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles, and other… pic.twitter.com/V4RwRmQoMC

— Emanuel (Mannie) Fabian (@manniefabian) October 23, 2024

Hezbollah rockets trigger sirens in center, north

Two long-range rockets were launched at Israel from Lebanon on Wednesday morning, both of which were successfully intercepted by air defenses.

There were no reports of injuries in the attack, which triggered sirens in Tel Aviv and nearby towns, as well as in the Nazareth area in the north.

Police did note, however, that falling shrapnel following a rocket interception over central Israel damaged a car in the Herzliya area.

Hezbollah claimed it had targeted the Glilot military intelligence base in the area, which houses the 8200 signals intelligence unit. The base has been targeted several times in recent days.

Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system fires to intercept as air raid sirens sound in Tel Aviv, Oct. 23, 2024. (Nathan Howard/Pool Photo via AP)

The terror group said the rocket fire was “in response to attacks and massacres committed by the Zionist enemy.”

A few hours later, a barrage of some 25 rockets was fired from Lebanon at the Haifa area.

Sirens were activated in the Krayot and other nearby towns, northeast of Haifa.

According to the IDF, most of the rockets were intercepted by air defenses, and some impacts were identified.

There were no reports of injuries, but one rocket reportedly impacted in the Sha’ar Na’aman area, south of Acre. Footage from the scene showed damage to a building.

25 שיגורים במטח לגליל העליון ולמפרץ: פגיעה באזור התעשייה נעמן, אין נפגעים | כל העדכוניםhttps://t.co/exdVUKRdLr | @_Gitsis_ pic.twitter.com/7MWdcwxEAI

— החדשות – N12 (@N12News) October 23, 2024

A drone launched from Lebanon was also shot down by air defenses over the Ramot Naftali area, hours after three other drones, launched by an Iran-backed militia in Iraq, were also intercepted. Another drone from Lebanon was intercepted outside of Israeli airspace later in the day.

Yet another rocket barrage of 30 projectiles targeted the Krayot and Kiryat Shmona several hours later. The IDF said some of the rockets were intercepted, and impacts were also identified.

Meanwhile, the IDF located the remains of a Hezbollah drone launched at Israel Tuesday night, which had triggered repeated sirens and sent around a million Israelis to bomb shelters for an hour.

The Israeli Air Force had been tracking the drone from Rosh Hanikra on the Lebanon border but lost contact with it in the Yokne’am area amid attempts to intercept it.

An initial probe by the military indicated the drone was successfully downed near Yokne’am, and crashed in an open area.

Since October 8, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.

Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group.

Israelis take cover inside a bomb shelter as a siren alert is sounded in Tel Aviv, October 23, 2024. (Yehoshua Yosef/Flash90)

The attacks on northern Israel since October 2023 have resulted in the deaths of 29 civilians. In addition, 45 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon in late September.

Two soldiers have been killed in a drone attack from Iraq, and there have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.

The IDF estimates that more than 1,500 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the conflict. Around 100 members of other terror groups, along with hundreds of civilians, have also been reported killed in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has named 516 members who have been killed by Israel amid the fighting, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. These numbers have not been consistently updated since Israel began a new offensive against Hezbollah in September.

END

LEBANON

War likely to wipe 9% off Lebanon’s GDP, with fallout set to exceed 2006 conflict

Today, 7:35 pm

People watch a building collapse after being hit by an Israeli airstrike in Ghobeiri, Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

The war between Israel and terror group Hezbollah is expected to wipe 9 percent off Lebanon’s national wealth as measured by GDP, the United Nations says, with the scale of hostilities and the economic fallout set to surpass the last war in 2006.

The UN Development Program’s rapid appraisal of the conflict’s impact on Lebanon’s gross domestic product was released a day ahead of a summit hosted by France to help drum up international support for Lebanon.

UNDP says it expected the conflict to last until the end of 2024, leading to a 30% jump in the government’s financing needs in a country in dire straits even before violence began.

“GDP is projected to decline by 9.2% compared to a no-war scenario, indicating a significant decline in economic activity as a direct consequence of the conflict (around 2 billion dollars),” the report says.

UNDP says that even if the war ended in 2024, the consequences would persist for years, with GDP likely to contract by 2.28% in 2025 and 2.43% in 2026.

Lebanon was already suffering a four-year-old economic downturn and a political crisis when Hezbollah began firing rockets at Israel last year in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas.

In late September, Israel dramatically ramped up its bombing across Lebanon, with strikes now regularly hitting Beirut’s southern suburbs, major cities in southern Lebanon and parts of the eastern Bekaa Valley, including the border with Syria.

Hezbollah and Israel last fought in 2006, when a month-long conflict left much of Lebanon’s south and the capital’s southern suburbs in ruins and required international help to rebuild.

UNDP says the damage to physical infrastructure, housing and productive capacities like factories would likely be close to that estimated for the 2006 war, which was between $2.5 billion and $3.6 billion. But it warned of larger overall damage to Lebanon.

“The scale of the military engagement, the geopolitical context, the humanitarian impact and the economic fallout in 2024 are expected to be much greater than in 2006,” it says.

UNDP’s report says the closure of border crossings critical for trade would bring a 21% drop in trade activities, and that it expected job losses in the tourism, agriculture and construction sectors.

It says Lebanon had already sustained “massive environmental losses” over the last year, including due to unexploded ordnance and contamination from possibly hazardous material, particularly the use of white phosphorus across southern Lebanon.

Government revenue is expected to fall by 9% and total investment by more than 6% through both 2025 and 2026.

As a result, increased international assistance will be essential for sustainable recovery in Lebanon, UNDP says – not only to address the spike in humanitarian needs but to stem the long-term social and economic consequences of the conflict.

Lebanon’s minister in charge of its crisis response tells Reuters that the country needed $250 million a month to help more than 1.2 million people displaced by Israeli strikes.

END

Should Israel accept Jordan’s olive branch during the war? – opinion

If there are 57 Arab and Muslim countries willing to live in peace with Israel, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi’s proposal is not something to dismiss out of hand.

By MICHAEL M. COHENOCTOBER 23, 2024 10:27

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fopinion%2Farticle-825730&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241021_e8dd7575db27269f7bc6f9dc56c560b0bff9902c&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

In the midst of this four-front war with no clear end date in sight, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi recently proposed:

“All of us in the Arab world here [members of a committee mandated by 57 Arab and Muslim countries] want a peace in which Israel lives in peace and security, accepted, normalized with all Arab countries in the context of ending the occupation, withdrawing from Arab territory, allowing for the emergence of an independent, sovereign Palestinian state on the June 4, 1967, lines with east Jerusalem as its capital…”

The question is, what should Israel do with such a statement at this particular time? It will clearly be rejected by many voices for many different reasons.

The land Safadi mentions is the biblical heart of Israel and can never be given back. Returning that land will put Israel at serious security risk.

The Arabs rejected division of the land in 1937, 1948, 2000, and 2008 – they will not agree to it this time, so entertaining this offer is a waste of time that will only put Israel in a more precarious global political reality.

To agree now to such a proposal only rewards Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran when it comes to terrorism. The current environment, after this past annus horribilis with so much shock, heartache, pain, devastation, and grief, is absolutely not the time to contemplate what the acceptance of Safadi’s offer would mean.

All of these reasons to reject what the Jordanian foreign minister proposed need to be considered. Not to mention that Safadi also said, “Israelis, what’s their narrative other than I’m going to continue to go to war, I’m going to kill this and kill that and destroy this and that.”

How can someone be trusted who so quickly dismisses Israel’s right to defend itself in the wake of the horrors that were inflicted on it on October 7, or the years of attacks by Hezbollah in the North, which is now uninhabitable for 60,000 Israeli evacuees? Not to mention the firing of ballistic missiles by Iran at Israel.

Can we take this olive branch seriously?

Having said all that, can we take Safadi’s olive branch with any degree of seriousness? We need to step back and see the present in a broader historical arc.

There is a clear line from the brutal massacre of the Hebron Jewish community in 1929 and the atrocities committed on October 7. 

---

---

In between, there has been the massacre of the Hadassah medical convoy in 1948, the Israeli Olympic athletes in Munich in 1972, the schoolchildren in Ma’alot in 1974, and the suicide bombings over the decades. That is to say, Israel has been on the receiving end of the murder of innocent civilians for a century now. Why?

It was perhaps said most succinctly by David Ben-Gurion in 1936 about the local Arab Palestinian population: “It is inconceivable that a people would choose to become a minority.” That too often and for far too long Palestinians have chosen terrorism as a tactic only convinces more and more Israelis that Palestinians cannot be trusted and have no real desire to live in peace.

Conflict resolution theorist Johan Galtung teaches that when we only deal with violence, we create what he calls a “negative peace,” since the violence will come back.

Only when we also deal with the causes of the conflict will we obtain a positive peace to break the cycle – the decades, in this case, of Israeli and Palestinian blood being shed.

There is no question that we need to forcefully address violent attacks on Israelis and the Jewish state. But, as Galtung astutely explains, it only leads to a negative peace.

So how can we get closer to that positive peace and address the cause of the conflict without diminishing the need to focus on the symptom of the conflict – in this case, the violence?

They do not need to be viewed as mutually exclusive. The challenge is that in the immediacy and necessity to respond to or preempt violent assaults, addressing the causes of a conflict is often pushed aside, which may lead to quiet, but it will only be temporary, as Galtung points out. Israel and all of its neighbors deserve a better future.

This leads us back to the recent statement by the Jordanian foreign minister. His statement goes to the intractable cause of this century-long conflict – the 2,000-year-old homecoming for the Jewish people pushing up against the local Palestinian population becoming a minority.

Questions can be raised about Safadi’s overture, as mentioned above. But at the end of the day, he has opened an opportunity to face, at this moment, the causes of this 100-year-old conflict.

Yes, Iran and its proxies want to see Israel wiped off the map. But if there are 57 Arab and Muslim countries willing to live in peace with Israel, it’s not something to dismiss out of hand.

It is worth noting the wording of the psalmist: “Seek peace and pursue it” (Psalm 34:14). It says that our Jewish value is to “seek” and “pursue” peace. It does not say we will succeed each and every time, but it does say we must seriously explore and examine every opportunity that comes our way.

These words are not written lightly, but they are written with the guidance of that powerful Jewish value to “seek peace and pursue it,” even during a painful time of war.

The writer is a Reconstructionist rabbi emeritus of the Israel Congregation in Manchester Center, Vermont. He teaches at the Arava Institute for Environmental Studies on Kibbutz Ketura and at Bennington College. The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization with which he is affiliated.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

END

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

Bill Gates to Stand Trial in Netherlands in COVID Vaccine Injury Lawsuit • Children’s Health Defense
nteresting

https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/bill-gates-covid-vaccine-lawsuit-netherlands/

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXZANDER

30-year-old boosted healthy pilot dies suddenly! AGAIN, it’s Malone mRNA technology gene mRNA vaccine, stupid, it’s his vaccine stupid! With Bourla, Bancel, Sahin, Weissman et al., these are criminals

& parents of this pilot must ask Malone & Bourla et al. how they will help? What money from donor money Malone got, from the fraud fame he will pay them, the family to this pilot; why would he die??

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 22

READ IN APP

In this era of COVID mRNA Malone et al. gene vaccines, what else can you think about can kill this young healthy pilot? Silent myocarditis…vaccine induced cardiac arrest.

Investigate them, all linked to the fraud COVID OWS, the lockdowns, the deadly Malone Kariko Weissman et al. mRNA vaccine in courts, judges, juries, and if not guilty then we praise them and celebrate them but if guilty we hang them, hang them all…they did wrong and then made money off that wrong, fame and money…we need to fix that equation.

Now to this superb substack paper by Lioness of Judah Ministry (please support them)…

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

Exposing The Darkness substack, Lioness of Judah Ministry, By Frank Bergman October 21, 2024

Excellent piece ran by Lioness of Judah Ministry.

this pilot for someone has to pay…why don’t you ask Malone to not buy another horse and pay for the deaths his work with Bourla and Sahin et al. caused…why not?

why not ask him to donate the corrupt Global COVID Summit or cough cough ** International Crisis Summit** donor money and monies collected as same thing ha ha ha that you were fooled, shame on you….to the families of dead people who took the mRNA vaccine he said had unambiguous data it saved lives and he shilled it showing you that he took it…why not? or are you hoping he can give you some of that money?

Vaxxed & Boosted 30-Year-Old Pilot Dies Suddenly: ‘Wake Us Up from This Nightmare’

A 30-year-old airline pilot has tragically died “suddenly,” according to his devastated family.

end

Of 2605 infant deaths reported to VAERS from 1990 through 2019, 58 % clustered within 3 days post-vaccination and 78.3 % occurred within 7 days post-vaccination, confirming that infant deaths tend to

occur in temporal proximity to vaccine administration.’ These are devastating words from this study! A Mid Western Doctor’s brilliant work on vaccines and link to sudden infant death

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 22

READ IN APP

See also:

Vaccines and sudden infant death: An analysis of the VAERS database 1990–2019 and review of the medical literature – PMC (nih.gov)

TDwP pertussis shot…

CDC’s own data based on analysis:

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

‘Of 2605 infant deaths reported to VAERS from 1990 through 2019, 58 % clustered within 3 days post-vaccination and 78.3 % occurred within 7 days post-vaccination, confirming that infant deaths tend to occur in temporal proximity to vaccine administration.’

Several theories regarding the pathogenic mechanism behind these fatal events have been proposed, including the role of inflammatory cytokines as neuromodulators in the infant medulla preceding an abnormal response to the accumulation of carbon dioxide; fatal disorganization of respiratory control induced by adjuvants that cross the blood-brain barrier; and biochemical or synergistic toxicity due to multiple vaccines administered concurrently.’

AMD: ‘When COVID happened, many in the vaccine safety community predicted the lockdowns would lead to a massive drop in SIDS cases (since children were skipping their non-essential vaccine appointments). As I show here, this indeed was what happened (and likewise happened shortly after in Florida once large numbers of parents opted out of routine vaccination). To this day, no explanation has ever been provided for this mysterious decline in SIDS.’

See:

Vaccines and sudden infant death: An analysis of the VAERS database 1990–2019 and review of the medical literature – PMC (nih.gov)

end

SLAY NEWS

10 Different Analyses Confirm Huge Covid ‘Vaccine’ DeathsTen individual analyses, all using different methods, have now confirmed that Covid mRNA “vaccines” have caused alarming numbers of deaths.READ MORE

Scientists Link Deadly Splanchnic Blood Clots to Covid ‘Vaccines’Scientists have uncovered evidence linking a once-rare form of deadly digestive blood clots to Covid mRNA “vaccines.”READ MORE

Runner Dies Suddenly from ‘Medical Emergency’ During Detroit MarathonAn American runner has tragically died suddenly in Michigan while competing in the Detroit Free Press Marathon.READ MORE

Democrat Senate Candidate Makes Shock Admission about Family’s Criminal PastRuben Gallego, the Democrat candidate in Arizona’s Senate race, is being forced to confront a “stain” on his family history.READ MORE

Tim Walz’s Meltdown over Trump’s McDonald’s Appearance Highlights Its EffectivenessDemocrat vice presidential nominee Tim Walz has issued an angry response to President Donald Trump “working” at McDonald’s.READ MORE

Speaker Johnson: Republicans Will Sweep Presidency, House and SenateSpeaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has predicted that Republicans will take power across the board in next month’s critical elections.READ MORE

Netanyahu Defied Biden-Harris Administration’s Warnings to Kill Hamas LeaderIn a bold and controversial move, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defied warnings from the Biden-Harris administration to kill a key Hamas leader.READ MORE

Rosie O’Donnell’s Daughter Arrested for Child NeglectHollywood leftist Rosie O’Donnell’s daughter Chelsea has been arrested in Wisconsin on charges of child neglect.READ MORE

Tim Walz Attacks Trump When ‘The View’ Asks Him to Explain How Harris’ Policies Differ from Biden’sDemocrat vice presidential nominee Tim Walz put in yet another disappointing performance for the Harris campaign when he appeared on ABC’s “The View” on Monday.READ MORE

Trump Warns Adam Schiff Is ‘an Enemy from Within’: ‘He’s a Crooked Guy’President Donald Trump has warned the American people that Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA), along with several other top Democrats, is “an enemy from within.”READ MORE

Underage Diddy Accuser Says ‘Celebrity’ Couple Participated While Rapper Raped HerAn alleged child victim of Sean “Diddy” Combs has dropped bombshell accusations in newly filed court documents.READ MORE

Iron Maiden Singer Paul Di’Anno Dead at 66Paul Di’Anno, the former singer of legendary heavy metal band Iron Maiden, has died.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

EVOL NEWS

In Georgia, a Concerning Demographic Trend for Democrats – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

Top Doctor Blows Whistle on Skyrocketing Cancer Deaths: ‘Vaccinated Are Dying’ – EVOLRead more…President Trump: “I now recognize that it’s been the hand of God leading me to where I am today” – EVOLRead more…Harvey Weinstein diagnosed with chronic myeloid leukemia, sources say – EVOLRead more…House Report Reveals Trump Prosecutor Nathan Wade Met with White House – EVOLRead more…Key State’s Early Voting Data Gives Trump, Republicans Reason to Cheer – EVOLRead more…Handwriting Analysis Expert Catches Cassidy Hutchinson in Apparent False Testimony – EVOLRead more…Texas AG Accuses Dem Donation Portal ActBlue of Illegally Funneling Foreign Money Into US Campaigns – EVOLRead more…Democrat Atlantic City Mayor Charged with Beating His Daughter – EVOLRead more…

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

When Powell Cut Rates By An “Emergency” 50bps, Did He Expect Yields Would Be 50bps Higher A Month Later

Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024 – 01:45 PM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

When the Fed cut rates by ‘only-in-an-emergency’ 50bps on September 18 as it Orwell-style said the US economy was “good”, I wonder if their army of market economists had warned them that just over a month later, the 2- and 10-year US Treasury yield would both be trading around 50bps higher at 4.02% and 4.18% – and with market chatter that we could test 5% in the latter ahead?

If they did, why did the Fed cut when they wanted to see lower yields? If they didn’t, does the Fed know what they are doing? Consider that as the Fed’s Daly says she doesn’t see any reason not to continue cutting rates as inflation falls (and yields rise?) to guard against further weakening of the labor market (which isn’t being shown in the latest data). Other voices are at least suggesting the next steps might be back to 25bps (which might see yields rise relatively less?), and Kashkari is again asking out loud if the neutral US rate might now be higher.

Of course, some of the (very) seasonally adjusted US data of late explains part of that yield pop. However, so might the US election now two weeks away as betting markets – whatever they are worth – increasingly back Trump to win: are are seeing Trump trades related to higher inflation(?)

There’s certainly no lack of election hyperbole. Vanity Fair warns, “We All Have a Lot to Lose If Trump Wins”, as “A second Trump presidency could mark the end of something we certainly don’t want to lose: democracy as we know it.” The Atlantic says, ‘Trump Is Speaking Like Hitler, Stalin, and Mussolini’ – did they do rude jokes about golfers? Rolling Stone opts for ‘Trump’s Closing Pitch to Voters: I Will Let You Die If You Don’t Bow to My Demands’. This is the mainstream media.

Yet the financial market focus seems far more particular: on trade and tariffs. Bloomberg – in the non-partisan manner expected from a financial news organization whose billionaire owner ran for president against Trump in 2020 – editorialises that, ‘Harris Should Challenge Trump on Trade and Tariffs’. Yet their analysis on tariffs is awful. They link to another story, ‘Two US Towns Show What Happens When China Gets Hit With Tariffs’, as evidence of why tariffs don’t work and Biden is as flawed as Trump in seeing trade as zero sum. Except that the logic of the article fails to make that point at all.

It underlines that Biden tariffs on trailers used to tow 40’ shipping containers saw a Chinese firm set up production in the US – which backs tariffs; the rival US firm was found to be using Chinese steel ostensibly coming from Thailand, so also got hit with duties – which backs tariffs shifting supply chains globally, over time; the Chinese firm was alleged to be using Chinese steel ostensibly from Vietnam – which makes the same point; and the story concludes that the industry was hit hard by the end of Covid lockdown and a sharp reduction in the need for trailers as port activity normalised – which has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS. Nonetheless, it is apparently important to Bloomberg that Harris distance herself from Biden’s and Trump’s trade wars and start to shift towards free trade, as if this were a vote winner. It might be in the Bloomberg building given financial news media naturally prefer the US to export financial assets such as Treasury bonds rather than physical goods such as trailers; but polls don’t suggest Main Street echoes that.

I’m not saying tariffs can’t be inflationary: they can and likely will be – and that’s our base case ahead. But if the above is ‘analysis’ of all the economic, political, and geopolitical dimensions of this complex issue, then I suggest the authors might want to apply for a job in the economics department at the Fed.

Staying with bad analysis, as the market loses focus on the Middle East, the news is far from good. Israeli reports suggest the recent Hezbollah drone strike on PM Netanyahu’s house will prompt a more severe retaliatory hit on Iran than previously planned. While the logistics of the original scheme were leaked to Iran by the US, which scuppered an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program when it also happened in 2012, this time it adds to the Israeli argument to up the military ante and not tell the US what it’s going to do in advance. Rumors are of strikes on Iranian leaders’ homes as well as military, economic, and nuclear sites – and the expectation is of a strong response leading to escalation… until oil is eventually hit? Tellingly, in Lebanon, Israel is striking a Hezbollah-linked bank to cripple it financially; and released a video informing the Lebanese that Hezbollah has $500m in cash and gold in a bunker underneath a Beirut hospital, which it won’t strike (with the implication people should go help themselves). If that approach is carried over to Iran, markets may get a short, sharp shock.

IDF just went It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World on Lebanon and told everyone where Hezbollah's millions of dollars in cash and gold are hidden. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/rdr0O0yvUv

— The Mossad: Satirical and Awesome (@TheMossadIL) October 21, 2024

No analysis is also bad analysis. Tiny Moldova just voted to start the EU accession process with a 50.39% vs. 49.61% referendum victory: given its small population, only 11,602 votes decided the country’s future. Regardless, Moldova, with a GDP per capita of just $6,651, and bordering the breakaway pro-Russian region of Transnistria, now starts the slow process towards joining the EU (and the Euro?). Expect EU-Russia tensions to continue to grow as a result. Moreover, the ever cheery but always readable Branko Milanovic notes, “For small countries that are polarized in many respects, it is a suicide in this geo-political climate, to choose one or the other side. Neutrality or non-alignment is not just a “nice” policy. It is necessary in order to survive without a civil war. Libya & Iraq are cautionary tales.”

For small countries that are polarized in many respects, it is a suicide in this geo-political climate, to choose one or the other side. Neutrality or non-alignment is not just a "nice" policy. It is necessary in order to survive without a civil war. Libya & Iraq are cautionary…

— Branko Milanovic (@BrankoMilan) October 21, 2024

And today, at the macro level, while Washington, D.C. hosts the annual IMF and World Bank meetings “clouded by war, slow economic growth, and the US election” – where we can expect much muttering about tariffs – we also get the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, the first since the group expanded, to far less Western attention.

While there is no chance of a BRICS FX alternative to the US dollar emerging, we might see progress towards Russia’s plans for a BRICS exchange for producers and consumers of almost half of global grains – or ‘BREAD-PEC’. While pricing of these commodities will surely remain in dollars, mechanisms may be proposed for price floors and ceilings; moreover, we may also see increased institutional BRICS barter to obviate the need to transact grains trade in dollars. With major grain producers such as the US, Canada, Australia, the EU, and Ukraine not involved, the embryonic outlines of a potential global bifurcation in key agri markets may be there. (As Russia bans imports of Kazakh grains, fruits, and vegetables for ‘failing phytosanitary standards’ following the country’s decision not to join the BRICS.)

Moreover, if this grains exchange works, which is far from certain, expect attempts to roll it out to other commodities the BRICS are rich in. Even so, those thinking we will get to the same outcome in energy any time soon are failing to do serious analysis of their own; if not, those looking at US bond yields really are.

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BRICS MEETING

India’s Modi Urges Quick ‘Peaceful’ End To Ukraine War In Meeting With Putin

Tuesday, Oct 22, 2024 – 09:20 PM

On the first day of the annual BRICS summit held in Kazan, Russia – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a call for the war in Ukraine to be resolved peacefully and “quickly”.

This is the message he conveyed directly Russian President Vladimir Putin upon the start of the three-day gathering. Putin hopes to present the BRICS alliance as the main alternative to Western hegemony.

“We have been in constant touch over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,” Modi told Putin, just after the two once again shared a warm embrace. “We believe that disputes should only be resolved peacefully. We totally support efforts to quickly restore peace and stability,” Modi emphasized. Russia looks anything but “isolated” during this week of hosting major heads of state.

“All our efforts give priority to humanity. India is ready to provide all possible cooperation in the times to come,” the prime minister added.

Modi had recounted upon arriving in Kazan the night prior – and as a way to highlight steady relations with Moscow despite the more than two-year long Ukraine war – that this is his second visit to Russia in just three months.

“My two visits to Russia in the last three months reflect our close coordination and deep friendship. Our Annual Summit in Moscow in July has strengthened our cooperation in every field…In 15 years, the BRICS has created its special identity and now many countries of the world want to join it. I am looking forward to participating in the BRICS Summit tomorrow,” Modi said.

Putin responded positively by describing that “Russian-Indian relations have the character of a particularly privileged strategic partnership and continue to actively develop.”

Modi and Putin laugh at a joke by the Russian president…

🇷🇺🇮🇳 "Our Relations are So Good, You Understand Without a Translator" – Putin Jokes with Modi

A friendship between nations not lost in translation?#BRICS2024 pic.twitter.com/bQ92M1yZHB

— RT_India (@RT_India_news) October 22, 2024

Other BRICS partners are likely to repeat this call for peace and de-escalation in Ukraine. Around two dozen global leaders in the Russian city, notably including Chinese leader Xi Jinping, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, and UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

Russian state sources are hailing Russia playing host to the summit:

By hosting BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia “shows the West that it’s not isolated” and President Vladimir Putin “is no pariah,” Time Magazine reported on Tuesday.

According to Alicia Garcia-Herrero, a senior research fellow at the Bruegel think tank who spoke to the outlet, BRICS “expansion is a clear sign that the global balance of power is shifting.”

Top of the agenda toward this end will be discussion of and the further advancing of a BRICS-led payment system to rival the SWIFT international payment system, which President Putin has long talked about.

Looks who's arriving in "Isolated Russia" for the huge BRICS summit 2024

The leaders of the biggest economies and democracies on Earth.

Russian President Putin to hold meetings with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian PM Modi at BRICS Summit tomorrow in Russia. pic.twitter.com/rs1OiJuD0J

— sumit (@sumityou40) October 22, 2024

The conflicts breaking out in the Middle East will also be a prime topic, given Israel is still vowing to strike back at Iran for the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack, and as Lebanon comes under increasing bombardment by Israeli jets.

END

CANADA

Bank of Canada delivers jumbo 50 basis point cut as inflation ‘now back to target’

John MacFarlane, Alicja Siekierska and Jeff Lagerquist

Updated Wed, October 23, 2024 at 9:50 a.m. EDT 1 min read

The Bank of Canada cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday, the fourth consecutive decrease since June, bringing its policy rate to 3.75 per cent. The oversized cut was widely expected by economists, as inflation has slowed more than expected and returned to the central bank’s 2 per cent target.

“We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2 per cent target and we want to keep it close to the target,” Governor Tiff Macklem said in a prepared opening statement.

“Now our focus is to maintain low, stable inflation. We need to stick the landing.”

END

(ZERO HEDGE/SAME STORY AS ABOVE)

Bank of Canada Slashes Rates For 4th Straight Month In Biggest Rate Cut Since Covid

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 10:06 AM

In keeping up with the global easing frenzy, and also in keeping with its promises from last month when it said to “expects further cuts”, moments ago the Bank of Canada – home of what may be the world’s biggest housing bubble – stepped up the pace of interest-rate cuts and signaled that the post-pandemic era of high inflation is over when the central bank cut the benchmark overnight rate to 3.75% on Wednesday, the biggest reduction in borrowing costs since March 2020 during the early days of the pandemic.

The Bank of Canada started easing borrowing costs with a quarter percentage-point reduction in June. It cut again by 25 basis points at each meeting in July and September. The next and final rate decision for this year is on Dec. 11, when some economists already project another 50 basis-point cut.

Here is a redline comparison of the BOC’s statement vs last month (courtesy of Newsquawk):

Here are some highlights from the decision:

On Rates:

• “the timing and pace of further reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information.”
• “We will take decisions one meeting at a time”.

CPI:

• The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2%.
• With inflationary pressures no longer broad-based, business and consumer inflation expectations have largely normalized.

Growth:

• GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates.
• This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth

The jumbo cut – which was widely expected by markets and economists – aims to boost economic growth and keep inflation close to the 2% target in an economy where headline price pressures slowed to 1.6% in September and are no longer as broad, with inflation expectations now trending closer to normal.

The 50 basis-point cut suggests a new phase of monetary policy easing, where policymakers focus on returning interest rates to more neutral levels — where borrowing costs neither restrict nor stimulate growth — to avoid slowing the economy too much and having inflation undershoot the target.

“All this suggests we are back to low inflation,” BOC governor Tiff Macklem said in his prepared opening remarks. “Now our focus is to maintain low, stable inflation. We need to stick the landing.” The bank now sees upward and downward risks to its inflation projection as “reasonably balanced,” he added “but with inflation back to 2%, we want to see growth strengthen. Today’s interest rate decision should contribute to a pickup in demand.”

Here are some more highlights from his comments:

• “We also expect growth in residential investment to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations.”
• “Looking ahead. GDP growth is forecast to gradually strengthen to around 2% in 2025 and 2%% in 2026, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth.”
• “With stronger demand, the downward pressure on inflation is also forecast to dissipate, keeping the upward and downward forces roughly balanced.”
• “Going forward, we can expect to continue to see some monthly fluctuations in inflation.”
• “Overall, we view the risks around our inflation forecast as reasonably balanced. With inflation back to 2%. we are now equally concerned about inflation coming in higher or lower than expected. The economy functions well when inflation is around 2%.”

Hilariously, just like every other central bank, the Bank of Canada’s latest forecasts see policymakers achieving a soft landing, where inflation normalizes without a deep economic downturn. GDP growth, which is expected to be just 1.2% this year, should accelerate next year to just over 2%, while inflation is expected to remain near the midpoint of the 1% to 3% target range, the central bank said. Just like magic.

“We want to see growth strengthen. Today’s interest rate decision should contribute to the pickup in demand,” Macklem said. “We took a bigger step today because inflation is now back to the 2% target and we want to keep it close to the target.”

BOC officials said they expect to reduce the policy rate further if the economy evolves in line with their expectations, but they cautioned that the “timing and pace” of future cuts will be based on incoming data.

Before the release, traders in overnight swaps were betting the Bank of Canada would lower its policy rate to about 2.75%, the mid-point of the so-called neutral range, by September 2025.

In the monetary policy report accompanying the rate statement, the bank said headline inflation will remain close to the 2% target through 2026, with core measures of consumer prices easing gradually. The upward inflationary pressures from shelter and services are also forecast to further diminish.

While economic growth in the second quarter was slightly stronger than July’s forecast, the third quarter appears to be weaker, the report said. The bank said the economy continues to be in excess supply — wherein there isn’t enough demand for goods and services being produced — and the labor market is still soft, with population increases exceeding job creation.

Growth is expected to accelerate and average 2.25% over 2025 and 2026. Consumer spending and business investment are forecast to strengthen, supported by interest-rate decreases.

Population growth is also expected to slow due to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s measures to curb the flood of immigrants.

Looking at the market reaction, the USDCAD was virtually unchanged as the decision and commentary were both very much as expected. Money markets now price in 31bps of Dec rate cuts (up from 30bps before the decision) and 60bps by January (up from 58bps).

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YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0766 DOWN 0.0030

USA/ YEN 152.95 UP 1.801 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2947 DOWN .0034

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3837 UP 0.0020 (CDN DOLLAR UP 20 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 16.94 PTS OR 0.52%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 261.20 PTS OR 1.22%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.09%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 261.20 PTS OR 1.22%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 16.94 PTS OR 0.52%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.09%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 307.10 POINTS OR 0.86%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2749.45

silver:$34.48

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY  morning: 104.34 UP 44 BASIS POINTS FROM  TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.752%  DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.971% UP 0 AND 6/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.0165 DOWN 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.532 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3215 UP 1 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :   WEDNESDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0778 DOWN .0018 OR 18 basis points

USA/Japan: 153.07 UP 1.90 OR YEN IS DOWN 190 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.265 UP 9 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN .0024 OR 24 BASIS pts  to 1.3841

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The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.1254 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1404)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.29 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +0.971

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from TUESDAY at  4.258% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.528 UP 3 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.059 UP 2  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2737.80

SILVER AT 11;00: 34.03

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates:  WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 47.90 PTS OR 0.58%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 44.29 OR 0.23%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 37.62 PTS OR 0.50%

Spain IBEX CLOSED up 32.50 OR 0.27%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 36.24 OR 0.14%

WTI Oil price  71.21 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  75.45 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  96.40 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  65/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3265 UP 1 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.265 UP 9 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.289 UP 5 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.026 UP 3

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0783 DOWN 0.0013 OR 13 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2927 DOWN 0.0054 OR 54 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.250 UP 10 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.974

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.58 UP 1.43 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3838 UP 0.0022 CDN dollar DOWN 22 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 70.77

Brent OIL:  74.90

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 4 BASIS pts to 4,242

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS PTS to 4.511%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT  4.080

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.282 UP 4 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.037 UP 4 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 104,23 UP 32 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.28 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  95.91 DOWN 0 AND  16/100 roubles

GOLD  2,715/45 3:30 PM

SILVER: 33.59 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 409.87 PTS OR 0.95%

NASDAQ DOWN 316.69 PTS OR 1.55%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.35 UP 1.15 PTS OR 6/32%

GLD: $250.873 DOWN 3.06 OR 1.21%

SLV/ $30.71 DOWN 103 OR 3.25%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:DOWN 143.08 PTS OR .53%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:

Traders Sell Everything As Dollar & Yields Soar To 3-Month Highs

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Stocks dropped for the third day in a row today (longest streak since early Sept) with the S&P’s worst loss in seven weeks, as with a big h/t to Goldman, it seems equity market bulls finally noticed the recent explosion in rates.

Treasury yields rose across the curve again today (with the long-end outperforming – 2Y +5bps, 30Y +2bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, the recent 2-sigma move in rates (as we have seen) implies serious drawdowns for stocks…

…and the surge in rates (10Y +55bps in the last three weeks) suddenly hit stocks…

Source: Bloomberg

…and ‘Trumpflation’ has prompted a market-wide rethink of rate-cut expectations (lower/hawkish), especially for next year…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that all weighed on stocks bigly today. There was a small comeback after The Beige Book signaled some dovishness, but Nasdaq was the day’s biggest loser (down over 2% at one point)…

A big down-day for mega-cap tech today…

Source: Bloomberg

All seven of the Mag7 stocks were down today – that is the first time that’s happened since Sept 6th…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks were monkeyhammered lower…

Source: Bloomberg

Even the so-called ‘Trump Trade’ saw selling pressure today (though the “Democratic Victory’ basket was hit even harder, so don’t get all excited Kamala)…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading desk noted that overall activity levels are up +5% vs. the trailing 2 weeks with market volumes up +5% vs the 10dma, with their floor basically paired Buy vs. Sell with HFs net to buy and LOs net for sale

• HFs are +7% better to buy with Demand in Macro Products, Industrials & Tech offsetting supply in Fins, Utes & Comms Svcs
• LOs are -2% better for sale.  Tech supply from them outweighs supply in Staples and Cons Svcs by 3:1.  Demand is led by Cons Disc, Mats & HCare.

Meanwhile, the dollar refuses to stop, rallying up to its strongest since early July against its fiat peers…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields are rising as fast as the dollar – also up to three month highs (all above 4.00%)…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar strength finally smacked gold lower today… but not before the precious metal hit a new intraday record high…

Source: Bloomberg

Silver underperformed gold on the day after a decent run against the barbarous relic…

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto was clubbed like a baby seal also, with Bitcoin fading back towards $65,000….

Source: Bloomberg

After two strong days, oil prices slipped lower on an inventory build, higher crude production, and no extreme headlines out of the MidEast (yet)…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, prediction markets continue to trend in Trump’s direction…

Source: Bloomberg

…and even the polls are starting to move in his favor (because there’s only so much ‘cheat’ margin to play with).

MORNING TRADING/

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

US Existing Home Sales Slump To Lowest Since 2010

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 10:07 AM

Existing home sales disappointed (yet again) in September, declining 1.0% MoM (vs expectations of a 0.5% MoM rise). August’s 2.5% MoM drop was revised up to a 2.0% MoM drop, but still left existing home sales down 3.5% YoY…

Source: Bloomberg

Total sales SAAR dropped to 3.84mm, the lowest since 2010…

Source: Bloomberg

Even with the weaker September sales figures, “factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said in his ubiquitously optimistic statement.

“There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy.”

First-time buyers made up 26% of purchases, matching an all-time low.

Some 1.39 million homes were for sale in September, up 23% from a year earlier, the NAR report showed. The supply of homes still remains below pre-pandemic levels.

At the current sales pace, available inventory would last 4.3 months, the longest in more than four years.

The median sales price rose 3% in September from a year ago to $404,500.

Around the country, previously owned home sales dropped in three of four regions, including a 1.7% decline in the South to the slowest pace since the start of 2012.

Closings fell 2.2% in the Midwest to a 13-year low, and 4.2% in the Northeast. Sales rose 4.1% in the West, driven by California and Arizona.

While the short-term (lagged) may bring an improvement in existing home sales (based on the lagged impact of declining mortgage rates), as the chart below shows, since The Fed unleashed its rate0cutting cycle, mortgage rates have risen aggressively once again…

Source: Bloomberg

…not a good sign for the housing market’s affordability.

However, inventory problems could persist since “84 percent of mortgaged homes have a rate below 6%, so the number of sellers that would be financially incentivized to sell would remain limited,” Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at title insurance giant First American Financial Corp. said in the report.  

END

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Restaurant Bankruptcies Piling Up, TGI Fridays May Be Next

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 06:55 AM

Restaurant bankruptcy filings have been ticking higher this year as budget-conscious consumers cut back on eating out, and many eateries struggle with high debt loads in a toxic environment of high interest rates. TGI Fridays is the latest casual dining chain preparing a bankruptcy filing.

People knowledgeable of TGI Friday’s bankruptcy plans told Bloomberg that the US casual dining restaurant chain, with 600 locations in 55 countries, including 233 in the US, will file for bankruptcy protection in the coming weeks. 

TGI Fridays executives have been in multiple discussions with lenders searching for a loan to ensure operations run smoothly through the Chapter 11 process, the people said, who asked not to be named in the report. 

The people said Ropes & Gray LLP lawyers are advising TGI Fridays on bankruptcy preparations but noted plans have not yet been finalized. 

Bloomberg pointed out:

The chain’s obligations include asset-backed securities, which were the source of some drama last month after the company’s management breached their terms by failing to file documents to bondholders on time. As a result of that breach, they had to turn over control of some assets to an outside manager.

Credit rating agency KBRA recently reported that the chain lost control of much of its business functions through a manager termination event because of TGI Fridays’ “failure to furnish a report of the independent auditors or back-up manager summarizing the findings of certain agreed-upon procedures within a certain time period.”

Add TGI Fridays to the list of restaurant bankruptcies piling up this year as the space becomes extremely challenging in a period of thrifty consumers: 

• Red Lobster Management
• Rubio’s Restaurants
• Melt Bar & Grilled
• Kuma Holdings
• Tijuana Flats
• Sticky’s Finger Joint
• Boxer Ramen

CRE news website Bisnow added more color on the restaurant downturn: 

Going back decades, this year is set to come second to only 2020 for the number of restaurant chains and operators declaring bankruptcy, according to BankruptcyData.com records reported by the WSJ. Traditional chain restaurants like Red Lobster and Buca di Beppo have had to resort to a court-facilitated restructuring, but so have fast-casual chains Roti, Tijuana Flats and fast-casual taco chain Rubio’s.

Same-store sales traffic at US restaurants was down 3.3% year-over-year this month, according to Black Box Intelligence, and casual dining restaurants saw visits fall 4.5%.

Other headlines in the space:

• Subway Calls ‘Emergency’ Meeting With Franchisees As Fast-Food ‘Value Wars’ Potentially Claim First Casualty
• Fast-Food Restaurants Fight To Keep Customers As Food And Wage Costs Spike
• KFC Unveils ‘Finger-Lickin Good’ Meal Deal As Value Wars Heat Up

Yet corporate media and the White House say the US economy is humming along and nothing to worry about with consumers. 

END

looks like we are going to have our second bank failure. This bank took over Signature bank

What did one expect ??

Inbox

Robert h	10:27 AM (6 minutes ago)
to

END

Tulsi Gabbard Announces Switch To GOP

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Oct 23, 2024 – 12:40 PM

Authored by Caden Pearson via The Epoch Times,

Former presidential candidate and congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, who left the Democratic Party two years ago, announced Tuesday that she’s joining the Republican Party because of her love for America and former President Donald Trump’s leadership.

Gabbard made the surprise announcement during a speech at Trump’s rally in Greensboro, North Carolina.

“It is because of my love for our country, and specifically because of the leadership that President Trump has brought to transform the Republican Party and bring it back to the party of the people and the party of peace, that I’m proud to stand here with you today, President Trump, and announce that I’m joining the Republican Party,” Gabbard said.

Moments prior to revealing her decision, Gabbard explained her reasoning.

She said that the Republican Party was welcoming to “independent-minded people” who are committed to the U.S. Constitution and to freedom, such as herself.

“I am joining the party of the people, the party of equality, the party that was founded to fight against and end slavery in this country. It is the party of common sense and the party that is led by a president who has the courage and strength to fight for peace,” said Gabbard, who serves in the U.S. Army Reserves.

She noted that Trump has “pledged to end wars, not start them.”

Gabbard served as a member of Congress from 2013 through 2021, representing Hawaii’s second district as a Democrat.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

KING REPORT

The King Report October 23, 2024 Issue 7354

Independent View of the News

Pentagon official suspected of intel leak to Tehran – Sky News Arabia (Enormous scandal!) Complicating the investigation, Senator Roger Wicker tweeted on Monday to raise concerns about Ariane Tabatabai, the chief of staff for the Assistant Secretary of Defense for Special Operations. Wicker noted that Tabatabai, who has access to top secret information, was implicated in a previous Iranian influence operation… https://www.iranintl.com/en/202410224828   If Tabatabai is the leaker, Team Obama-Harris has a huge problem because of her prior alleged actions.   GOP Rep. @RepBrianMast: It’s no surprise Biden-Harris officials are committing TREASON by leaking U.S. Intelligence to Iran. I flagged over a year ago that there is a senior official within the DOD who was part of an Iranian influence campaign. https://x.com/RepBrianMast/status/1848735543984587063   US Treasury Secretary surfaced on Tuesday to exclaim that the US would lend $50B+ to Ukraine.  This is a blatant scheme to circumvent the US Congress and a probably DJT presidency.   Yellen: More Ukraine aid can be backed by frozen Russian assets after initial $50 billion loan “This is not the last time this can be done. This is the first tranche and if necessary, there’s more behind it,” Yellen told reporters at an event hosted by the Economic Club of New York. “We’re getting Russians to help pay for the damage that it’s caused.”  The $50 billion loan will be backed with at least $260 billion worth of frozen Russian central bank assets as collateral. Most of those funds are held in European Union countries… If necessary, the U.S. will commit the entire $50 billion, a senior administration official told reporters Thursday on a press call. But Washington expects at least some of the G7 nations to pledge at least a portion of total… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/13/yellen-ukraine-50-billion-loan-more.html   Yellen says US to unveil new sanctions on Russian… including “intermediaries in third countries that are supplying Russia with critical inputs for its military.”  Yellen said in prepared remarks for a news conference at the start of International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meetings that the Treasury is “working tirelessly to unlock the economic value of frozen Russian sovereign assets to aid Ukraine.”  https://www.reuters.com/world/yellen-says-us-unveil-new-sanctions-russian-2024-10-22/   @FactSet: Excluding the “Magnificent 7” companies, the other 493 SPX companies are reporting earnings growth of 0.1% for Q3.   https://x.com/FactSet/status/1848495502477693009   US stocks and bonds sagged early on Tuesday.  The action was particularly troubling for bonds, which got hammered on Monday.  Traders expected a bounce.  But the US 10-year hit 4.21%.  Gold soared to a new high.  In past months, when bond yields have jumped, gold has sagged on the perception that higher rates would inhibit inflation.  Lately, gold has jumped higher with bond yields.  Bonds are impairing stocks, but not gold.  This implies that inflation angst is elevated due to profligate US spending.   ESZs opened modestly higher on Monday night but broke down at 18:42 ET.  After a slow rollover, ESZs broke down at 19:55 ET.  A slow but plodding decline took ESZs to 5879.00 at 2:42 ET.  The rally for the European opening then began.  ESZs hit 5887.75 at 3:44 ET and then reversed.  A methodical decline took ESZs to 5863.75 at 5:47 ET.  After a rebound to 5876.75 at 98:14 ET, ESZs sank anew.   After hitting a daily low of 5861.25 at 9:06 ET, the rally for the NYSE opening began.  Determined and intractable buying to affect a Turnaround Tuesday supercharged ESZs, which soared to a new daily high of 5904.24 at 14:03 ET.  ESZs did a plodding retreat to 5887.50 at 14:59 ET.  The last-hour rally began.   ESZs rose to 5901.75 and then sank to 5888.00 at 16:00 ET.  Not good action!   Everyday Costs Drowning Consumers Aren’t Fully Reflected in CPI – BBG (Our view for decades) Property taxes, tips, and interest charges from credit cards to auto loans aren’t factored into the Bureau of Labor Statistics ‘ consumer price index… as well as brokerage fees and under-the-table payment to babysitters and dog walkers… home prices, as well as associated costs like mortgage payments and property taxes… are left out… As a result, the index understates a significant amount of…inflation.   Positive aspects of previous session A belated Turnaround Tuesday to the upside occurred for equities. Phillip Morris jumps 10%, biggest one-day gain since 2008 (booming ZYN sales) – BBG 16:00 ET   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds and stocks sagged in early US trading.  USZs were -7/32 at NYSE close. Gold and precious metals rallied sharply; Oil and gasoline soared. The DJIA declined 6.71 points despite PM’s 10.46% rally. MCD sank 9.1%, CDC linked Quarter Pounders to an E.coli outbreak in mountain states & 1 death in CO   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are stocks tired?  They acted that way on Thursday afternoon.   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5845.14 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5863.04; 5821.17   Lagarde Says Trump Should Visit to See How Hard Fed’s Job Is – BBG 11:30 ET   Euro elites fear and loathing of Trump is palpable – and for good reason.  He holds them accountable and threatens to cut the umbilical cord from the US.   Nathan Wade admitted to multiple White House meetings during Trump Georgia probe, transcript suggests – Former Fulton County special prosecutor Nathan Wade (alleged Fani Willis lover) met with Biden administration staff on at least two occasions during District Attorney Fani Willis’ probe into former President Donald Trump, a newly released transcript suggests… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/nathan-wade-admitted-multiple-white-house-meetings-during-trump-georgia-probe-transcript-suggests   @EricLDaugh: NEW (USA/Today/Suffolk U) POLL: Trump leads Latinos by 11 points nationally. (If true, DJT landslide) https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848704958796829029   @EricLDaugh: The left-wing newspaper “Los Angeles Times” has decided NOT TO ENDORSE Kamala Harris for president. The Times has endorsed *every* Democratic presidential candidate since 2008. https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848781281976352779   “This Is War”: Musk Responds to Bombshell “Kill Twitter” Plot Involving UK Advisors to Kamala Harris… the UK’s Center for Countering Digital Hate – which is advising the Kamala Harris campaign, aims to “kill Musk’s Twitter”… https://www.zerohedge.com/political/war-musk-responds-bombshell-kill-twitter-plot-involving-uk-advisors-kamala-harris   @RNCResearch: Cognitively Impaired Joe Biden opens his event in New Hampshire (at which Kamala refused to appear) immediately getting distracted by a child in the audience. He’s completely cooked, and Kamala covered it up. Neither are fit for office. (very creepy video) https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1848822432712560692   Biden calls for Trump to be jailed 14 days before 2024 election: ‘We gotta lock him up!’ (massive gaffe, realizing the huge error, belatedly Joe added “politically lock him up!”) https://trib.al/oX4sLvT   Dem-friendly Axios’ @AlexThomp: Noting this could be politically unhelpful to Harris, a former Biden admin official texts me: “we gotta lock Joe up.”   Biden, Harris, Walz, various Dems, and their MSM stooges have relentlessly stated Trump will jail his adversaries to scare voters.  The addled Biden just undermined one of Dems’s last campaign ploys.   Starbuck Suspends 2025 Guidance, Reports Same-Store Sales Drop (7%) – BBG 16:14 ET (10% tumble in traffic to its North American stores per CNBC)   Today – Equities declined sharply on Monday and the Turnaround Tuesday was lame.  Mr. Bond is impairing the stock market; plus, stocks look very tired.  Oil and gold are rising on reports that Israel has finalized plans to attack Iran and is waiting for Bibi’s go signal.   Rumors about Tesla’s results, due after the close, could impact afternoon trading.  Traders, barring news, will try to engineer rally after two disappointing days this week.   ESZs -5.25; NQZs are -28.00; and USZs are -4/32 20:18 ET.   Expected econ data and events: Sept Existing Home Sales 3.89m; Fed Beige Book 14 ET; Fed Gov. Bowman 9 ET, Richmond Fed Pres Barkin 12:00 ET   Expected impact earnings: T .57, GD 3.49, BA -10.31, HLT 1.84, KO .75, IBM 2.22, TSLA .60   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5663; 100-day MA: 5556; 150-day MA: 5431; 200-day MA: 5318 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,673; 100-day MA: 40,582; 150-day MA: 40,014; 200-day MA: 39,624 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5851.20 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5512.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5788.27 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5869.74 triggers a buy signal   @charliekirk11: “Kamala Harris, she’s taking the entire day off. She’s going to spend all day just to prepare for an NBC interview, which will be taped.” SEN TUBERVILLE: “I think they’re just trying to keep her off camera to be honest with you. She’s been a disaster.” https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1848751316446634161   @EricLDaugh on Monday: Trump is going OFF on Kamala right now.  “She’s off [the campaign trail today]? I can’t get over it. Who the hell takes off when you have 14 days left?… She’s lazy as hell. She’s got that reputation.   She’s a radical left lunatic… ” Then he brought up “Pocahontas.” This crowd is DYING laughing!  https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1848748907704049725   Kamala Harris’s NBC interview is a replay of previously asked MSM questions and Harris’s trite regurgitation of her talking points and word salads, except for vowing there will be no religious exemptions for performing abortions.  https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1848843588337054084   @TrumpWarRoom: Kamala repeatedly denies she was engaged in a massive coverup around Biden’s cognitive decline — insisting she was honest with Americans, even as it was obvious to anyone with a brain that Biden was losing it. She’s a stone-cold liar. https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1848846465931645149   NBC Full transcript of Kamala Harris interview   https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/transcript-president-kamala-harris-interview-nbc-news-hallie-jackson-rcna176330   There were beaucoup comments about Harris’s bizarre behavior at her staged event on Monday.   Kamala Harris giggles as she insists ‘I’m not eating gummies’ while revealing how she deals with stress https://t.co/aUFpQEgJ0K   @joma_gc: The medication and liquor are fighting an epic battle again. Can someone get up there and help her? https://t.co/4Zicxce8dK   @still_boneless: Kamala always does this democracy bit when she’s wasted. https://t.co/V6QdSFrUce   Liz Cheney Cringes, Kamala Flubs Benjamin Franklin Quote During CNN ‘Town Hall’ Given that Shriver had already disclosed that the questions were pre-arranged, it became apparent that Harris had prepared verbatim responses for the event… Throughout the event, Liz Cheney’s body language suggested discomfort and detachment…    Kamala stated, ‘In a democracy, as long as we can keep it,’ which is very close to what Benjamin Franklin said, except that The United States is a republic and not a democracy… The ‘A republic if you can keep it’ quote from Benjamin Franklin was in response to Elizabeth Willing Powel’s question: “Well, Doctor, what have we got, a republic or a monarchy?”… https://www.lifezette.com/2024/10/liz-cheney-cringes-kamala-flubs-benjamin-franklin-quote-during-cnn-town-hall-watch/   How could a campaign staff make such an error in prepared remarks on a famous Franklin comment?   Kamala Harris laughs and says ‘I’m clearly a woman’ when asked if sexism will decide the election (Wait!  Dems cannot define what constitutes a ‘woman!’) https://trib.al/quOULiG   Apparently, the videos of Gwen Walz’s sappy and embarrassing campaign appearances have induced Team Obama-Harris to curtail Gwen’s role in the campaign.   @joma_gc: More drama is unfolding in the Harris campaign. Gwen Walz angrily cancelled a campaign event focused on reproductive rights scheduled for today in Maine after Kamala spoke to Tim Walz to tell him his wife’s overbearing attitude was hurting her with male voters. The joy is gone.   @HerschelWalker: VP Harris visited Pastor Jamal Bryant’s church in Atlanta on Sunday- how fitting it’s the same church that wants to grow marijuana to attract black boys and men. Seriously? I doubt God is on board with that. Being black doesn’t mean we all smoke weed. Let’s uplift our youth in better ways. https://x.com/TerriGreenUSA/status/1848516967738528053   Kamala Harris Plagiarized Pages of Congressional Testimony from a Republican Colleague. Plus, a Fictionalized Story About Human Trafficking.  https://freebeacon.com/democrats/kamala-harris-plagiarized-pages-of-congressional-testimony-from-a-republican-colleague-plus-a-fictionalized-story-about-human-trafficking/   Kamala Harris accused of plagiarism again — this time for fabricating a sex crime and cheating off a former AG’s notes https://trib.al/nVkjDdv   The two reasons CBS News won’t release unedited Kamala Harris interview, columnist claims “One, the people that run the network want Kamala Harris to win and Donald Trump to lose… “Two, they know by releasing the transcript, or the unedited video, it will likely show that on multiple occasions, this interview cut the guts out of the various word salad the vice president again served up,” he added. “Her campaign now is only reduced to talking about Trump. It’s not working.”… https://nypost.com/2024/10/22/media/cbs-news-statement-on-controversial-60-minutes-edit-falls-flat-on-social-media-publish-the-transcript/   Elon Musk urges people to share signs of voter fraud on X https://t.co/m75luln2ua   NBC: Democrats brace for a possible crack in the blue wall and signs of North Carolina slipping The Harris campaign has privately flagged concerns about Michigan… https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/democrats-brace-crack-blue-wall-signs-north-carolina-slipping-rcna176046   Trump is soaring in polls and betting markets.  This makes it very difficult for Dems to cheat.   @KamalaHQ: @Liz_Cheney: If you wouldn’t hire somebody to babysit your kids, you shouldn’t make that guy the President of the United States.  https://x.com/KamalaHQ/status/1848528403000922332   We opined that whoever is running the Harris Campaign is inept.  They keep injecting comments and issues that debase Harris and elevate Trump overtly and subliminally.  The latest egregious error is Liz Cheney’s above question about babysitting.  Trump’s kids are reasonably well adjusted.  Harris has no children.  More importantly, it invites ridicule about how Harris’s hubby impregnated his babysitter!  Plus, imagine Joe Biden or Bill Clinton babysitting your kids! Harris senior spokesman silent on whether he still thinks Liz Cheney is ‘crazy,’ a ‘warlord’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-senior-spokesman-silent-whether-he-still-thinks-liz-cheney-crazy-warlord   Russia behind Walz deepfake video, US intelligence community officials say (Like Hunter’s PC?) The video circulating on social media purports to show former Mankato West High School student Matthew Metro claiming that he was groped and kissed by Walz in 1997 when the Minnesota governor was a teacher there. Except the allegations are completely fabricated… The real Matthew Metro – who is now living in Hawaii – told The Washington Post that he has never met Walz… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/russia-behind-walz-deepfake-video-us-intelligence-community-officials-say (Allegations about Walz’s behavior have circulated on social media for at least a month!)   @TrumpWarRoom: POT, MEET KETTLE: Tampon Tim Walz — known as the “Dancing Queen” for his bizarre, wild gesticulations in public — is now smearing @elonmusk for “skipping like a dipsh*t” at President Trump’s rally. What a moron.  https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1848811887971938385   You can’t make this up!  Walz, who’s public behavior is mocked and parodied while is private behavior is the subject of beaucoup seedy allegations, and who waves and gesticulates like Chris Farly on an SNL skit, is mocking Elon Musk for jumping one time at a DJT rally!  Walz is inviting big-time bashing! @covid_clarity: And four years ago, 51 former intelligence officials told us the Hunter Biden laptop was Russian disinformation…   Harris surrogate Mark Cuban tells CNBC he’d work with Trump administration if asked Cuban has been a visible surrogate on behalf of Harris… (vehemently anti-DJT; now he’s hedging!) https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/harris-surrogate-mark-cuban-tells-cnbc-hed-work-trump-administration-asked   @CollinRugg: Mark Cuban says President Biden and VP Kamala Harris let in over 10 million illegal immigrants because their “hearts were too big.”… https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1848506407949353292   A week ago, Mark Cuban dismissed Polymarket odds because it is closed to US citizens and cited Kalshi odds (open to Americans), which showed a close race.  Early on Tuesday, Kalshi had DJT + 20!  Polymarket has Trump 65.8%, Harris 34% to win on Tuesday afternoon. Bill Gates Privately Says He Has Backed Harris with $50 Million Donation – NYT   @nicksortor: This comes just days after @elonmusk told Tucker Carlson that some billionaires are “TERRIFIED” by Trump’s promise to release the Epstein client list… https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1848840524519903693   @StephenM: It’s widely known in DC that Kamala promised a top Nat Sec job to Liz Cheney (with Dick Cheney pulling strings) likely Defense Secretary. (Leading to WWIII). @IanSams knows it is true and will not deny it. He’s aware of the power-sharing deal Kamala made with the Cheneys.   Trump campaign files FEC complaint over influx of Labour staffers volunteering for Kamala Harris – The surge in nearly 100 oversea volunteers are helping the Harris-Walz campaign in critical swing states, including Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Labour officials insist the volunteers are paying their own way to the United States, and are staying at the homes of Democratic activists…  https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/trump-campaign-files-fec-complaint-over-influx-labour-staffers   James Carville uninterested in being ‘fair,’ compares election to slitting throats in WW2 https://www.foxnews.com/media/carville-uninterested-being-fair-compares-election-slitting-throats-ww2   Fox: Carville warns journalists will be locked up if Trump wins election: ‘He’s gonna arrest all of ya.’   @theblaze: Obama without a hint of self-awareness: “I don’t understand how we got so toxic and just so divided and so bitter.”  https://x.com/theblaze/status/1848835509973356579     @JesseKellyDC: For those who aren’t old enough, you cannot imagine how little race tension there was in this country before Obama got into power and started stoking those flames.  It was here, sure. But it was so small you hardly knew it existed. Then, the communist got power.   Former Abercrombie & Fitch CEO Mike Jeffries, two associates arrested on sex trafficking charges Matthew Smith of West Palm Beach and James Jacobson of Wisconsin were also arrested… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/former-abercrombie-fitch-ceo-mike-jeffries-two-associates-arrested-sex   We are old enough to remember when numerous people claimed A& F ads were satanic and creepy.   “Socialism — or the tyranny of the lowest and stupidest, the superficial, the envious and the more-than-half actors — as a matter of fact is the logical conclusion of “modern ideas” and their latent anarchism: but alas in the genial atmosphere of democratic wellbeing, the ability to draw conclusions, or even draw to a close at all, slackens. One follows a crowd — but no longer follows an argument. That is why Socialism is on the whole a bitter, hopeless affair: and nothing is more amusing than to observe the inconsistency between the venomous and desperate faces made by contemporary Socialists — as well as the miserable, bruised feelings to which their prose style bears witness!…” — Friedrich Nietzsche

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

GREG HUNTER 

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