OCT 24/GOLD PRICE ROSE BY $19.60 TO $2735.80//SILVER WAS UP ONE CENT TO $33.67PLATINUM WAS UP $7.50 TO $1026.80 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS UP A HUGE $99.15 AFTER THE USA INITIATED SANCTIONS OF PALLADIUM FROM RUSSIA/GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALSDAIR MACLEOD//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//ISRAEL VS HAMAS UPDATES//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/DR PAUL ALEXANDER//IN USA NEWS DENNYS PLANS TO CLOSE 150 STORES//USA PMI MANUFACTURING SCORES ITS 3RD STRAIGHT MONTH OF DECLINE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
190 H BMO CAPITAL 4 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 1 686 C STONEX FINANCIA 3 737 C ADVANTAGE 3 905 C ADM 7 991 H CME 10
TOTAL: 14 14
JPMorgan stopped 0/14
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 14 NOTICES FOR 1400 OZ or 0.0435 TONNES
total notices so far: 12,580 contracts for 1,258,000 Oz (39.129 tonnes)
FOR OCT
SILVER NOTICES:2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 10,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 1428 for 7.140 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $19.60 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD..
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.01 AT THE SLV
SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF .684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.177 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1075 CONTRACTS TO 156,189 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS OF $1.15 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX ON WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 75 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE LOSS OF $1.15 IN PRICE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE. THIS LASTED ONE DAY AS SILVER IS ON THE RISE AGAIN ON THURSDAY. //. WE HAD SOME MIMINAL SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE WEDNESDAY.. WE HAD A HUGE 1150 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 754 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A SMALL 75 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 754 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $1.15) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 75 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE 1150 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP+ .195 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 7.345 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 7.345 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 754 CONTRACTS)/PLUS THAT STUPID ISSUANCE OF .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THURSDAY, OCT 10
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: removed 67 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 17 DAYS, total 13,762 contracts: OR 68,810 MILLION OZ (809 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 68.810 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 68.810 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1075 CONTRACTS WITH OUR $1.15 LOSS IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1150 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 5.355 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 0 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 7.345 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A SMALL GAIN OF 75 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE SIZED 754 CONTRACTS ( WILL BE USED FOR WEDNESDAY’S TRADING),//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION, AS OUR CROOKS STILL COULD NOT CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE AS IT ROSE APPRECIABLY ON THURSDAY AS THE RAID ON WEDNESDAY FAILED MISERABLY.
/ ZERO SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRIDAY NIGHT (754) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.
WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 10,000 OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8391 OI CONTRACTS TO 565,369 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 882 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (8,391 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $29.10 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 39.2348 TONNES+ + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 60.1518 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $29.10 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 1202 OI CONTRACTS (3.738 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON FRIDAY, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING AND THE STEEP RISE IN PRICE AFTER ONLY ONE DAY OF A RAID.
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 7189 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 566,251
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1202 CONTRACTS WITH 8391 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 7189 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1202 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED 1132 CONTRACTS, WE HAD ZERO LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY AS WE ALSO HAD MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (8391 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 8391 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1202 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 20.917 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR.
//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 39.2348 TONNES. + 20.917 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 60.1518 TONNES
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL AND WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE NOT FOOLED AND THEY WERE REWARDED THURSDAY AS GOLD RESUMES ITS ATMOSPHERIC RISE.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1136 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
OCT
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 61,000 CONTRACTS OF 6,100,000 OZ OR 189.73 TONNES IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 3588 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 17 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 189.73 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 189.73 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.32% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 189.73 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 1075 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,189 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1150 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1150 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1150 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 1075 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1150 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 75 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.375 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $1.15 LOSS IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.54 PTS OR 0.63%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 270.53 PTS OR 1.53%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 38.43 PTS OR 0.10%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.26%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1151 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1222// Oil UP TO 71.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.39 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 8391 CONTRACTS TO 565,369 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $29.10 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING.HOWEVER, WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (7189). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS FIRSTLY ON TUESDAY, OCT 2, WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! WELL, ON THURSDAY, OCT 10 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AT 239 NOTICES OR 23,900 OZ (.7433 TONNES). LAST NIGHT ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 24 2024/. THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! THIS WEEK HAS BEEN A STELLAR WEEK FOR GOLD PRICE INCREASES.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S GAIN IN PRICE AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING, WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 7189 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 7189 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7189 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A VERY SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 320 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7189 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 8391 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $29.10 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A FAIR SIZED 1132 CONTRACTS, WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (60.1518 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.2348 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.1518 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $29.10/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A TINY SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY COUPLED WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION BUT TO NO AVAIL IN STOPPING GOLD’S ADVANCE AS YOU WILL SEE GOLD’S ADVANCE IN THURSDAY PRICING. CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 0.9953 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 500 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS + 20.917 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR
//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 39.2348 TONNES.+ + 20.917 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK
NEW STANDING FOR OCT 39.2348 TONNES + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR= 60.1518 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $29.10
WE HAD 882 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1202 CONTRACTS OR 120,200 OZ (3.738 TONNES)
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
12,580 notices 1,258,000oz 39.129 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits:0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits nil oz
withdrawals: 1
i) Out of Loomis: 482.265 oz (15 kilobars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 482.265 oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.
For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 48 contracts having LOST 21 contracts
We had 26 contracts filed on WEDNESDAY so we GAINED 5 contracts on our two exchanges or 5 CONTRACTS underwent a 500 oz queue jump. This is central bank action grabbing all the physical they can.
NOVEMBER LOST 231 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 1083
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 11,588 CONTRACTS TO 439,647
We had 14 contracts filed for today representing 1400 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 15 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,580 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(48 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (14 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,261,400 OZ OR 39.234 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.917 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR, NEW TOTAL = 60.1518 TONNES
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (12,580 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT (48 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (14 x 100 oz which equals 1,261,400 oz (39.234 TONNES) + 20.917 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY /PRIOR = 60.1518 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 60.1518 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,043,006,171 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,746,692.833/// 240.95tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,296,313.338 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,093,822 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 189.54 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
OCT 24 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE OCT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
574.863.762 oz
Brinks CNT
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,200,760.070 oz
Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)
2 CONTRACT(S) (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
2 contracts (10,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
1428 Contracts (7.140 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits
i) Into CNT: 14,783.920 oz
ii) Into Brinks 560,079.843 oz
total customer deposits 1,200.760.070 oz
We had 2 withdrawals
i) out of CNT 14,783.920 oz
ii) out of Brinks 560,079.843 oz
total withdrawal 574,868,762 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.778million or 43.53%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 68.449MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.778million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 4 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 68 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 68 CONTRACTS SERVED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
NOVEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 58 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 841
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2046 CONTRACTS UP TO 127,540 CONTRACTS
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 2 for 10,000 oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 107,919 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1428x 5,000 oz = 7.140 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (4) and the number of notices served upon today (2)x (5000 oz) to which we add 195,000 oz of exchange for risk/PRIOR equals the number of ounces standing.
Thus the standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month: 1428 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(4) number of notices served upon today minus (2)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month + .195 million oz ex. for risk/PRIOR equates to 7.345 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 7.345 million oz.
There are 69.742 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
OCT 24 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 16 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.25 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 13 WITH GOLD UP $30.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 14.54TONNES OF GOLD VAPOUR INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 870,71 TONNES
SEPT 12 WITH GOLD UP $37.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.74 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 866.18 TONNES
SEPT 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $0.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/A DEPOSIT OF 1.70 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 864.44 TONNES
SEPT 10 WITH GOLD UP $12.00ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 9 WITH GOLD UP $12.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $17.65 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
SEPT 5 WITH GOLD UP $18.00 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD /:/ //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 862.74 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 893.80 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ
OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
SEPT16//WITH SILVER UP $0.10 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. ADEPOSIT OF 958,000 OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 468.606MILLION OZ
SEPT13//WITH SILVER UP $1.13/ NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 11//WITH SILVER UP $0.33/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 2.099 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/ OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 467.648MILLION OZ
SEPT 10//WITH SILVER DOWN $.06/SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 639,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 465.549MILLION OZ
SEPT 9//WITH SILVER UP $0.45//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 46,000 OZ OF SILVER FROM THE SLV./. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.188 MILLION OZ
SEPT 6//WITH SILVER DOWN $.84//NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
SEPT 5//WITH SILVER UP $.55//SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.193 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV/: .///./// /INVENTORY AT 466.234 MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 477.177 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
Last Friday, President Putin ruled out a new BRICS currency for now saying that it is not under consideration, promoting trade settlement in national currencies instead.
The idea of a common BRICS gold-backed currency was first mooted over a year ago, with the Russian embassy in Nairobi leaking that it would be on the Johannesburg summit agenda in August 2023. It didn’t make it, with India firmly opposed, and China seemingly lukewarm. Clearly, disagreements have continued through the Russian presidency. And the larger BRICS becomes, the less likely a currency will be agreed upon.
But then, why is the gold price still rising? I’ll come to that later.
I think we can now rule out a BRICS trade settlement currency. Putin’s follow-up statement about exploring the use of digital currencies in mutual trade and investments is utterly meaningless. A currency is a currency digital in form already. It is credit which can be created by any bank, so long as it has access to an interbank settlement facility to keep its books balanced. Central banks already issue it to commercial banks, and the idea that central banks should issue it to invest and finance commercial enterprises as the Bank for International Settlements proposes, with or without a blockchain, is not just inflationary but preposterous.
Instead, Putin confirmed that BRICS nations would continue to use national currencies to settle trade. This is inevitable while India says that it is not interested in the de-dollarisation agenda and will continue to use dollars as it sees fit. It highlights a reality, that the diversity of national agendas under the BRICS umbrella makes agreement on virtually anything other than access to markets increasingly difficult as the membership expands. For this reason, it seems sensible to introduce a class of associate membership, or partnerships, for the 30-odd nations seeking to join, only offering them full membership in due course when circumstances and opportunities permit.
In his statement, Putin didn’t rule out a trade settlement currency entirely — only that it was premature. The mood music out of Moscow tells us that he is in favour of it with gold backing, perhaps for political reasons. He surely understands that to return gold backing to any currency is a frontal attack on the dollar and by crippling the US’s financing machinery it could call a halt to attacks on Russia.
The Americans are highly sensitive to this issue: Ask Colonel Ghaddafi’s or Sadam Hussein’s ghosts if your séance session permits, both of which reputedly expressed interest in remonetising gold. Not being a national currency identifiable with an attackable jurisdiction, a gold-backed trade settlement currency for BRICS might have been harder for the US to counteract. And the damage to the unclothed fiat emperor might be lightly less obvious at first.
China is likely to see consistent deficits on raw material imports offset by consumer product sales and outward investment. Russia’s imports from BRICS are unlikely to be material, instead being a net exporter particularly of energy and therefore a net receiver of weak currencies. Doubtless, this was one reason behind Russia’s desire to introduce a sound trade settlement currency. Instead, the de-dollarisation policy will depend on BRICS Pay or similar, a replacement for SWIFT with the added feature of matching currency settlements directly without the interposition of the dollar. That is still in development.
The dollar’s danger
We now turn our attention to the dollar, which is undeniably in a debt trap, increasingly plain for its creditors to see. China has been dumping dollars, we have assumed to be the consequence of her de-dollarisation policies. But the movers and shakers in Beijing are not fools: they can see the dollar’s debt trap, understand that there is nothing they can do about it, and if anything their de-dollarisation is only bringing forward the date of the dollar’s crisis. Japanese private sector investors are now the largest foreign group holding dollars, and some of them are trying to limit their losses and get out as well.
Increasingly Japanese banks, pension funds, and insurance companies can now foresee a US funding crisis, likely to be considerably worse if Trump gets elected as the bookies now predict (Trump 11/18 on, Harris 13/8 against). Whichever way you look at it, his protectionist plans will increase consumer price inflation. And the larger budget deficit will undermine the currency, leading to higher not lower interest rates. It promises a trainwreck for the dollar, and we can be sure that this prospect is accelerating the current surge out of dollars into gold.
Gold’s current bullish move started just over a year ago from $1840. The acceleration in recent days has been notable, accompanying Trump’s improvement in the opinion polls. Let’s look at this from the Asian hegemons and their close allies’ point of view. The chart below, of the dollar gold price inverted is actually of the dollar’s loss of value relative to gold, which as we know is real money while the dollar is credit depending for its value on no more than foreigners’ collective faith in the US Government:
That’s one sick dollar and the acceleration of this decline is alarming. Do foreigners really want to keep $32 trillion locked up in this failing fiat currency?
We now turn our attention to the supply of gold to meet this demand. It so happens that Ross Norman, a well-informed London-based analyst, commentator, and CEO of Metals Daily provided us with some numbers only this week. *
Norman assesses bullion supply as being the sum of 2,125 tonnes mined plus 720 tonnes of scrap since 1 March, totalling 2,850 tonnes. He can only account for demand of 1,480 tonnes, leaving a mystery over the buyers of the remaining 1,370 tonnes.
I am convinced the answer is simple. According to the World Gold Council, the combined mine output of the Asian hegemons, the ex-Soviet CIS states in central Asia, and other associated states last year was 1,232 tonnes. Throw in their portion of scrap and there are about 1,400—1,500 tonnes of supply, most of which is withheld from western capital markets and therefore not reflected in the statistics available. This excess supply simply satisfies a continuation of Asian demand which has been supplied by western sources for the last two decades — longer if you include Chinese stealth buying from the mid-eighties onwards.
Some of this demand should be evident in customs statistics for non-monetary gold. That it is not suggests that it is either not recorded or being booked as monetary gold for which no customs returns are made. If the latter is the case, then the buyers of this missing gold supply are central banks and governments.
It raises an important point. Despite the absence of a much-mooted BRICS gold settlement currency, which they would have known about for months, Asian governments and their central banks are still buying gold and continuing to do so even after President Putin told us the new currency was premature. There can only be one reason: Asian governments and those close to them are bailing out of western paper.
There are also early signs of a flight out of risk developing in western capital markets. Against the principal foreign currencies, including China’s yuan, the dollar has been rising at the same time as falling against gold. And despite the supposed downward trend in US interest rates, term yields for US Treasury notes and bonds are rising sharply. It is consistent with US capital markets themselves reflecting growing credit risk and a flight out of duration. And with a record valuation disparity relative to bonds, US equities are set to see substantial falls as well.
In conclusion, the BRICS meeting in Kazan is very important, but in a geopolitical rather than a financial sense. A rising dollar gold price is less about event-driven bullish speculation about the reintroduction of gold by BRICS for trade settlement purposes, and more about a paradigm shift in the relationship between fiat credit and real money, which is physical gold. And with big Asian players now panicking out of dollars and its fiat dependents while their opposite numbers in the west are selling lesser currencies should tell us that the entire structure of unattached western credit is at risk of collapse much sooner than even those who see these dangers might think.
We are unlikely to ever see a BRICS trade settlement currency before a dollar crisis changes the international landscape, so can assume the idea is stillborn. Instead, all that gold in Asian government hands is likely to be used defensively to stop their currencies from being dragged down with the dollar’s collapse — which though we might not know it yet, is already underway.
Central Asian countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are emerging as key players in the rare earth mineral market.
These countries offer vast reserves, political stability, and a willingness to develop their resources, attracting interest from Western powers, China, and Russia.
Securing access to rare earth minerals is crucial for countries to achieve their clean energy goals and reduce dependence on China, which currently dominates the market.
Securing reliable and strategic supply chains for rare earth minerals has become a geopolitical battleground for world superpowers in the intensifying context of the global clean energy transition. Decarbonizing the global economy will require unfathomable amounts of clean energy infrastructure from solar panels and wind turbines to lithium-ion batteries for energy storage and to power electric vehicles. All of these are going to require a whole heck of a lot of primary materials, and especially metals, many of which fall under the category of ‘rare earths.’
The term rare earth mineral is a bit of a misnomer, as these elements are not really that scarce. But global production capacity is relatively limited compared to demand, as the need for these materials has only recently skyrocketed as the world finally gets serious about a major energy pivot. Shoring up reliable and affordable access to these minerals is therefore a critical step in staying competitive in a fast-growing and fast-changing sector. And so far, China is setting the pace for such acquisitions and, in doing so, blowing its competition away.
Beijing has been eagerly acquiring rare earth reserves and contracts in emerging markets across the world for years now, resulting in what is currently an effective chokehold on global supply chains.
Today, China is home to 34% of the world’s rare earths, carried out 70% of global rare earth mining in 2022, and represents at least 85% of global capacity to process rare earth ores into manufacturing materials. What is more, China has managed to hold its distinction as the only large-scale producer of heavy rare earth ores on the planet thanks to “decades of state investment, export controls, cheap labour and low environmental standards,” the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies asserts in its 2023 report on China’s rare earths dominance and policy responses.
China’s outsized role has led to a dangerous level of international reliance on Chinese exports to meet global and national energy and climate goals. Becoming competitive with China and easing this imbalance will therefore require other global powers to ramp up their own efforts to secure supply contracts for these elements in the places where they are naturally occurring and where their extraction is relatively affordable.
The United States and China have already faced off for rare earth dominance in Latin America, but the U.S. has been relatively unsuccessful to get a significant toehold in the so-called ‘lithium triangle’ of Argentina, Chile and Bolivia. Africa has significant reserves of rare earth minerals, but is generally characterized by political instability and corruption which dampen its appeal to would-be investors. As a result, the hottest new battleground for rare earth contracts is currently emerging in Central Asia.
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are home to vast quantities of valuable rare earth minerals, and seem to have the political and economic conditions that the West is looking for.
“Unlike in the West, Central Asian governments are enthusiastic about the prospect of turning their vast deposits of [rare earth minerals and rare metals] into a new source of revenue for the local economies,” The Interpreter recently reported.
Kazakhstan is already “taking strategic steps to strengthen its position in the global electric vehicle (EV) battery market by increasing the output of critical metals,” according to reporting from Dario, and the Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has even referred to these materials as the “new oil”.
The massive central Asian nation has already signed deals with the European Union and the United Kingdom, and could potentially be an amenable trading partner for the United States as well.
The only problem is that Western powers are not the only major economies with their sights set on Central Asian resource riches.
China and Russia are also eager to tap into these nascent markets, and have certain competitive advantages over the West.
“By virtue of history, geography, and regional and cultural particularities and dependencies, Central Asian countries are bound with Russia and China,” the Interpreter reports.
By the same token, however, these former soviet republics are navigating the solidification of their national identities, and a move away from Russian control could also serve as a point of strategic interest.
END
PALLADIUM….
Palladium Soars After US Seeks Sanctions On Russian Exports, Goldman Warns Of Gamma Squeeze
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 11:20 AM
Three weeks ago, when the world was still enthralled by China’s latest attempt to stimulate the economy, we pointed out that one commodity that stood to gain the most should China’s momentum accelerate, was palladium which unlike gold and silver had barely moved in recent years and was trading around $1000 after rising as high as $3500 in early 2022, a time when it was called the “meme stonk” of the commodity market.
To be sure it wasn’t just China that would server as an upside catalyst: at roughly the same time, we learned that Russia’s Federal Budget outlined plans to significantly add to its holdings in precious metals over the coming years, including buying gold, platinum, silver and yes, palladium.
Fast forward to today when Palladium soared as much as 16% higher since our original observation, outperforming both gold and silver over the time period…
As we noted last night, the reason for the powerful spike is that Russia produces 38% of the Palladium in the world (25% of total supply if you take recycling into account), while China is the biggest source of demand. Remove the biggest supplier while stimulating the biggest buyer and well you get a price surge.
So what does this mean for further price gains, and is a repeat of the 2022 meltup – when palladium doubled in price in just a few months – possible?
For the answer we go to Goldman commodity trader Gerald Tan who writes this morning that “short covering started during the second half of the summer but Palladium remains quite short and sensitive to headlines per the extreme moves we saw at the beginning of this year.“
Now one of the reasons why the shorts haven’t panicked yet, and sent the price surging far higher, is because is Palladium is relatively easy to transport and store – Russia produce 2.7mm ounces or 85 MT of Palladium which only represents 7m3 – making it one of the easiest and cheapest commodity to ship and store. Additionally, while the LPPM removed Russian-produced metal from its good deliver list in April 2022, the market reaction was similar at the time but we saw no evidence of tightness in the subsequent months following this announcement.
That may change this time if the G7 indeed follows through with Russian palladium sanctions.
And while we wait, the Goldman trader notes that flow wise while his desk had seen a renewed interest from the bank’s investor franchise, consumers haven’t reacted yet: “Vols are up 10v in the front and forwards are 50 bps tighter across Cal25.”
The bottom line: Goldman is watching the 1-year highs at $1225 where dealers are short some gamma and Rhodium as a proxy for non-spec reaction and genuine tightness.
In other words should palladium rise another 8% from here, we may see the next massive gamma squeeze…
More in the full Goldman note available to pro subs.
.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.54 PTS OR 0.63%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 270.53 PTS OR 1.53%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 38.43 PTS OR 0.10%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.26%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1151 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1222// Oil UP TO 71.45 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 75.39 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1151
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1222
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 22.54 PTS OR 0.63%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 270.53 PTS OR 1.53%
2. Nikkei closed UP 38.43 POINTS OR 0.10%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.06 EURO RISES TO 1.0795 UP 14 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.946 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.86…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.620 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.466 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.956
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.105
3j Gold at $2738.30 /Silver at: 34.08 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 92/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 96.85
3m oil into the 71 dollar handle for WTI and 75 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.97 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.946% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8657 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9346 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.194 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.473 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.051 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.24…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2715 UP 4 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.249 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.006 DOWN 3 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rebound After 3 Day Slide As Tesla Surge Lifts Tech, Yields Slide
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 08:20 AM
After three straight days of selling, US equity futures are higher with tech stocks leading gains as Tesla surged 13% in premarket trading after it posted its biggest quarterly profit in more than a year. Contracts on the S&P 500 rose 0.5% as of 8:00 a.m. in New York, while futures on the Nasdaq 100 advanced 0.8%, setting up the tech index to rebound from its sharpest decline in almost seven weeks as traders look ahead to earnings from the rest of the “Magnificent Seven,” kicked off by Tesla’s strong performance. The benchmark has yet to fully claw back a summer slump. Overnight, NVDA supplier SK Hynix posted record profit amid strong AI demand; BA fell 2.7% as its bid to end strikes fails while IBM slumped after the it posted underwhelming revenue in the third quarter. Bond yields are lower and the USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-year yields are 3bp, 5bp, 5bp lower. Commodities, including oil, metals and Ags, are mostly higher: Oil +1.9%, Silver +1.8%, Aluminum +1.8% but Palladium is the standout, surging 10% on news the US may impose sanctions on Russian palladium exports (the country produces 38% of global palladium). The main data highlight will be the October flash PMIs from around the world. In the US, we’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims, along with new home sales for September.
In premarket trading, Tesla soared 13%, its biggest post-earnings jump since Q3 2019, after the EV maker reported its biggest quarterly profit in over a year and issued upbeat 2025 targets. IBM slumped 4% after reporting underwhelming revenue in the third quarter. Weakness in the company’s consulting and infrastructure businesses weighed on the results. Boeing slipped 3% as factory workers rejected a new labor contract that would have increased their wages by 35% over four years. NVDA supplier SK Hynix posted record profit amid strong AI demand; NVDA +1.0%. BA fell 2.7% as its bid to end strikes fails. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Harley-Davidson (HOG) drops 2% as motorcycle shipments fell in the latest quarter on lower overall demand and fewer sales of its highest-margin bikes.
Honeywell (HON) falls 3% after the industrial conglomerate lowered its revenue outlook for the year.
Lam Research (LRCX) rises 6% after the semiconductor equipment maker reported better-than-expected 1Q results. Investors will welcome this report after ASML’s weak report, analysts said.
Newmont shares (NEM) drops 5% after the gold miner reported 3Q profit that missed amid higher costs.
Seadrill (SDRL) surges 10% after Bloomberg reported the offshore drilling contractor is in talks to merge with rival Transocean, citing people familiar with the matter.
T-Mobile (TMUS) advances 2% after reporting more monthly mobile-phone and broadband subscribers that analysts expected.
United Parcel Service (UPS) jumps 7% after the company returned to sales and profit growth for the first time in nearly two years
Today’s market gains mark a resumption of the rally that took the S&P 500 to its 47th record high last week. Traders are bracing for more results from US tech giants, a turbulent US presidential race and the Federal Reserve’s next rate decision. With Alphabet, Amazon.com and Meta reporting next week “I would be hesitant to say we are through this earnings season,” said Colin Graham, head of multi-asset strategies at Robeco. “Earnings expectations have been downgraded more this quarter than in previous quarters and the bar to beat them was really low this time.”
Investors also have a flurry of US economic data to parse Thursday for clues on the Federal Reserves’s next move on interest rates. The latest snapshot of the health of the labor market is likely to get the most attention.
“If today’s initial jobless claims come in much below consensus forecasts of 242,000, that could send a further signal to rate setters not to overdo it on the loosening front,” said Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown
European stocks rise as good earnings reports from a range of companies boost the market after three days of declines. Retail stocks are the only sector in the red. The travel and leisure sub-sector is the strongest performer, boosted by Evolution which rallied after in-line results lay investor concerns to rest after a major strike. Miners and personal-care stocks also outperform. Stoxx 600 rises 0.6% to 521.73 with 159 members down, 430 up, and 11 little changed. The purchasing managers’ numbers did little to ease fears that the region’s economy is slipping back into stagnation and the probability of a half-point rate reduction by the European Central Bank in December is now a coin toss. Here are the biggest European movers:
Hermes shares rise as much as 3.4% after the French maker of high-end goods saw its sales beat estimates, signaling that companies catering to wealthy clients are weathering a luxury slowdown.
Unilever shares gain as much as 3.1% after the consumer-goods company reported third-quarter underlying sales growth that came ahead of consensus estimates.
Evolution shares gain as much as 14%, the biggest jump since April 2021, after the gaming firm delivered in-line results in the third quarter, offering relief in the wake of a major strike.
Danone shares advance as much as 2.6% after the French yogurt maker reported third-quarter like-for-like sales growth that beat consensus expectations.
Barclays shares jump as much as 4.3% to a 9-year high after it reported a surprise increase in 3Q fixed-income trading and total income that beat estimates, while upgrading guidance for UK NII.
Orange shares rise as much as 2.3% after the French telecom operator reported revenue that beat expectations in its home market, easing concerns about rising competition.
Dassault Systemes shares slip as much as 3.2% after the software firm delivered results for the third quarter which came in toward the bottom end of the guided range.
Michelin shares drop as much as 8.1%, the most since March 2022, after the French tiremaker lowered its full-year segment operating income target, although lifted guidance for free cash flow.
Kone shares fall as much as 3.9% after the Finnish elevator firm’s 3Q earnings arrived “mixed,” with Jefferies noting weaker demand in China and soft pricing key negatives in the report.
SEB shares decline as much as 5.6% after missing expectations on the key net interest income (NII) metric, a disappointment following strong prints from its Nordic peers earlier, according to analysts.
Edenred shares slide as much as 18%, the most on record, after the French payment-service provider said it faces a hit on Ebitda should a proposal to cap commisions in Italy go ahead.
Hemnet shares slump as much as 14%, the most since August 2022, after the Swedish real estate listings platform saw results come in below analyst expectations in the third quarter.
Earlier in the session, Asian equities headed for a fourth day of declines, dragged down by Chinese stocks. Technology shares slid following few key earnings reports. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2% to its lowest level in a month after swinging between gains and losses earlier in the day. Benchmark heavyweight TSMC erased gains while Alibaba and Tencent declined. Korean memory maker SK Hynix advanced after posting record quarterly profit, while Asian EV stocks were mixed after strong results from Tesla. Key gauges in Hong Kong and China were the region’s worst performers, resuming this month’s losses after September’s big gains. Traders continue to assess Beijing’s commitment to delivering stimulus, with few details so far on its plans to boost the economy and markets.
In FX, Bloomberg gauge of the dollar fell alongside Treasury yields, paring gains seen over the previous three sessions, ahead of claims and PMI releases. The euro edged higher after a slate of mixed PMI figures. The yen outperforms most G-10 peers, rising 0.6% against the greenback after the finance minister warned he is raising the level of urgency for monitoring currency moves.
EUR/USD rises 0.1% to 1.0796; common currency higher for first day in four
USD/JPY down 0.5% to 151.97 after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned over “one-sided, rapid moves” in FX after a G-20 meeting in Washington
GBP/USD rises 0.4% to 1.2977, just above pair’s 100-DMA at 1.2966; Gilt yields rise on report Chancellor Rachel Reeves will give herself an extra £53 billion of borrowing headroom in next week’s budget
In bonds, treasuries hold gains in early US session, paring losses that pushed yields for several tenors to multimonth highs Wednesday. US yields are richer by 3bp-6bp across the curve led by long end, leaving 2s10s spread ~2bp flatter on the day; 10-year, down 5bp at 4.19% near session low, outperforms UK 10-year by 8bp. European government bonds climbed on rate-cut expectations as data showed a downtrend in private-sector activity extended into a second month. German 10-year yields fall 3 bps to 2.27%. Most euro-zone yields also are lower while UK bonds fall after reports Chancellor Rachel Reeves will look to significantly increase borrowing in next week’s budget. UK 10-year yields rise 4 bps to 4.24%; gilts failed to match a rally in their US and European peers following reports Chancellor Rachel Reeves will be looking to significantly increase her ability to borrow in next week’s budget. Bunds extended gains after weak French PMI data as traders increased bets on a 50 bps interest-rate cut by the ECB in December. US session includes weekly jobless claims and S&P Global PMIs, following mixed European PMI readings.
In commodities, oil prices rebounded with WTI rising 1.9% to $72 a barrel as traders continued to await a retaliatory Israeli strike on Iran.. Spot gold rises $22 to around $2,737/oz.
Looking ahead, US economic data calendar includes September Chicago Fed national activity index and weekly initial jobless claims (8:30am), October preliminary S&P Global US manufacturing and services PMIs (9:45am), September new home sales (10am) and October Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Cleveland Fed’s Hammack at 8:45am
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.5% to 5,865.25
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 522.34
MXAP down 0.2% to 186.97
MXAPJ down 0.6% to 599.84
Nikkei up 0.1% to 38,143.29
Topix little changed at 2,635.57
Hang Seng Index down 1.3% to 20,489.62
Shanghai Composite down 0.7% to 3,280.26
Sensex little changed at 80,013.97
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.1% to 8,206.26
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,581.03
German 10Y yield down 3 bps at 2.27%
Euro up 0.1% to $1.0798
Brent Futures up 1.5% to $76.08/bbl
Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,736.77
US Dollar Index down 0.22% to 104.20
Top Overnight News
Japan’s Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato said he is raising the level of urgency for monitoring currency moves, after the yen hit an almost three-month low against the dollar. BBG
China is pressuring automakers to pause EU expansion plans due to its escalating EV tariff spat with Brussels, people familiar said. That’s already led to Dongfeng halting potential plans to make cars in Italy. BBG
Eurozone flash PMIs are mixed for Oct, with a shortfall on Services (51.2 vs. the Street 51.5 and down from 51.4 in Sept) and modest beat on Manufacturing (45.9 vs. the Street 45.1 and up from 45 in Sept). RTRS
Barclays shares climb in European trading after the company reported solid Q3 results, w/upside on pre-tax income (GBP2.2B vs. the Street ~GBP2B), and the company raised its full-year NII guide. RTRS
BOE Governor Bailey says UK inflation is cooling faster than expected, although he warned that services inflation still needs to come down. FT
Global bond sales will climb 17% this year to about $9 trillion after robust third quarter activity, S&P Global said, as it raised its previous estimate. Issuance may moderate to a 4% gain next year. BBG
Trump takes a 2-point lead over Harris in a new WSJ national poll (47-45%), a shift from the last survey in Aug which had Harris up 2 points. WSJ
Tesla shares jumped on its blowout results, buoyed by a profit-turning Cybertruck, and Elon Musk’s promise of 20% to 30% delivery growth next year. Uber and Lyft stock fell on Musk’s aim to roll out ridesharing in Texas and California in 2025. BBG
Boeing’s largest union rejected a new labor deal Wednesday, extending a six-week strike that has plunged the jet maker into increasing financial peril. Members of the machinist union voted 64% against a proposed contact that would have delivered a 35% wage increase over four years, union leaders said. WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded somewhat cautiously following the losses stateside where the major indices declined as participants digested earnings releases and negative stock-specific updates, while yields also continued to edge higher. ASX 200 initially retreated following a further deterioration in manufacturing PMI data but then gradually clawed back opening losses with the recovery spearheaded by resilience in defensives and tech. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as participants reflected on recent currency moves and Japanese PMI data contracted. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid weakness in the tech and property sectors with the latter industry not helped after Moody’s noted that several developers are to feel earnings pain, while macro newsflow remained quiet and a continuation of the firm liquidity efforts by the PBoC also failed to inspire a turnaround.
Top Asian News
Japanese Finance Minister Kato said no comment on FX levels and intervention but noted it is desirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and is closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgency, while he added that one-sided, rapid FX moves were recently seen in the FX market.
BoJ Financial System Report: “Japanese banks have sufficient capital bases and stable funding bases to withstand stress similar to the global financial crisis…”
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.7%) began the session very modestly in positive territory, and sentiment has continued to improve as the morning progressed; as it stands, indices generally reside at session highs. The complex was generally unreactive to the French/German/EZ. European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Travel & Leisure tops the pile, lifted by post-earnings gains in Evolution (+12.8%) and Sodexo (+4.5%). Autos were initially towards the middle of the pile, but moved up the gears amid Bloomberg reports that China is pressuring automakers to pause expansion in the EU due to the escalating trade conflict. US Equity Futures (ES +0.5% NQ +0.5% RTY +0.5%) are broadly on a firmer footing, in tandem with strength seen across European indices, and in an attempt to reclaim some of the pressure seen in prior session. Notable European earnings: Kering (+2%, rev. miss & guidance cut), Hermes (+1.9%, Sales beat), Barclays (+3.8%, strong results), Unilever (+3.9%, Sales beat).
Top European News
ECB’s Holzmann said a quarter-point rate cut is probable in December and they are unlikely to have a 50bps cut in December but such a move is possible, while another option is a hold due to the October move, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Vasle says no urgency in talking about undershooting inflation target and cutting rates below neutral; should keep cutting rated in “measured” increments.
FX
USD is softer vs. peers with the recent rally in DXY pausing for breath. Fresh macro drivers for the US have been on the light side, but will pick-up in the form of jobless claims and PMIs, later today. DXY remains on a 104 handle and within Wednesday’s 104.09-104.57 range.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers in the wake of this morning’s PMI data. EUR/USD was nudged lower in early trade following soft French PMI metrics; thereafter, the pair was granted some reprieve following slightly more encouraging German figures before the final EZ release printed mixed but underscored the complex growth picture for the region. EUR/USD currently sits around 1.08.
GBP was top of the G10 leaderboard early doors following a Reeves-induced jump in UK yields before upside for the pound was tempered by a softer outturn for UK PMI data. Cable is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.2908-95 range and below its 100DMA at 1.2964.
JPY is clawing back some ground vs. the USD in an attempt to reverse the recent trend which saw USD/JPY print a fresh multi-month peak at 153.18 yesterday. By way of comparison, yesterday’s low is still some way of at 150.97. Japanese Finance Minister Kato attempted to jawbone the currency overnight.
Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD as markets trade in a more pro-risk environment. AUD/USD has managed to move back above its 200DMA at 0.6628; NZD/USD is currently tucked within yesterday’s 0.5991-0.6053 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1286 vs exp. 7.1284 (prev. 7.1245).
Fixed Income
Bunds are on a firmer footing and were heading higher into the French PMI metrics, which were weak and sparked some modest upside to a 133.27 peak. Thereafter, a strong (relatively speaking) set of data from Germany saw EGBs essentially pare this move to current levels of around 133.11. EZ PMIs were mixed and ultimately had little impact on price action.
Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks and then extended lower by another 14 to a 95.70 base. Pressure which came on the back of a Guardian report that Chancellor Reeves will today confirm she will change the figure underpinning the existing fiscal rule to a broader measure, something she is expected to announce to the IMF later today. UK Flash PMIs were soft across the board with the outlook tepid and weighed on by numerous points of uncertainty; metrics which lifted Gilts modestly into the green, to a short-lived 96.31 peak. As it stands, Gilts are currently trading around 96.09.
USTs are firmer and pulled around alongside the above Flash PMIs ahead of its own release and weekly jobs data. Holding towards the 111-12 session high with the curve modestly flatter though with action across it a touch mixed at points as the belly finds itself the marginal laggard from a yield perspective.
Commodities
Crude is on a firmer footing, initially catching a bid following unconfirmed reports which indicated a fire in proximity to a Iranian nuclear facility in Karaj; this move ultimately proved fleeting given the lack of details. Soon after, upside returned alongside a pickup in broader sentiment with Brent Dec currently near highs at around USD 76.34/bbl.
Spot gold is firmer, bolstered by the softer USD and yield environment in the US and EZ. At a USD 2737/oz peak, which is the lowest daily-high for the week thus far.
Base metals are generally in positive territory, given the encouraging risk tone which has emerged despite a cautious APAC handover.
Iraq’s Kerbala (140,000bpd) refinery to operate at around 50% capacity in the coming days.
Geopolitics
“An Iranian opposition organisation reports a fire at the nuclear power plant in the city of Kharaj; There are no reports from official Iranian media”, via N12 News. Note, original N12 report on X has since been deleted.
Israel Broadcasting Corporation announced IDF’s readiness to respond to the Iranian missile attack. Thereafter, Israeli Broadcasting Authority, via Sky News Arabia, reports “Israel on the verge of launching an attack on Iran despite US pressure”
Explosions were heard in Syria’s capital Damascus as a result of Israeli aggression, according to Syrian state TV.
Iraqi armed factions loyal to Iran announced the targeting of a vital target in the Golan with drones.
Pentagon said US Secretary of Defense Austin expressed concern in a call with his Israeli counterpart about reports of strikes against the Lebanese army, according to Sky News Arabia.
Turkey hit PKK targets in Northern Iraq and Syria after a deadly attack in Ankara, according to Turkish security sources.
US President Biden said the US is announcing today that it will provide USD 20bln in loans to Ukraine.
US asked G7 to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium, according to Bloomberg.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 242,000, prior 241,000
Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
08:30: Sept. Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, est. 0.50, prior 0.12
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.5, prior 47.3
Oct. S&P Global US Services PMI, est. 55.0, prior 55.2
Oct. S&P Global US Composite PMI, est. 53.8, prior 54.0
10:00: Sept. New Home Sales, est. 720,000, prior 716,000
Sept. New Home Sales MoM, est. 0.6%, prior -4.7%
11:00: Oct. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -7, prior -8
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
What started out as a one off vague curiosity 3 years ago has now seemingly become a permanent October half-term long weekend fixture, without me necessarily agreeing to it. Yes, we’re off to Center Parcs tomorrow and my wife has signed me up to do Kayaking and a high zipwire across a lake amongst many other things that aren’t golf. Happy days!
Markets continued to slide down the wire yesterday, with bonds and equities both losing ground for a third day running. Maybe the long awaited close election sell-off is arriving, albeit after 6 successive weeks of rallying. Binky Chadha and Parag Thatte have talked about it in their recent piece here. Basically the vol premium for the day after the election is currently moving progressively higher in the same way it did ahead of close elections in 2016 and 2020. In both these years it got ever higher as the election day approached as investors basically bought protection, thus putting downward pressure on the cash market. In 2016 and 2020, once the event passed and life moved on that protection either rolled off or was in the money, leading to buying of the market and starting the post-election rally. The irony is that at the moment, the election looks close, but if the current polling and prediction markets momentum around Trump continues its possible that the pre-election trends of 2016 and 2020 won’t reoccur as it will appear less close. But for now it’s starting to move to the 2016/2020 script. See Binky and Parag’s piece for more about the equity market as we head into the election and into year-end.
Against that pre-election backdrop, the S&P 500 (-0.92%) was down for a third consecutive day. It did partially recover after trading down -1.5% a couple of hours before the close, but this still marks its worst 3-day run since early September (-1.15%). The reversal was led by a sharp loss for the Magnificent 7 (-2.15%), with Nvidia (-2.81%), Amazon (-2.63%) and Meta (-3.15%) all seeing sizeable declines.
After the close however, the mood turned a bit more positive as Tesla delivered a strong set of Q3 results. The automaker is now projecting a slight increase in deliveries for the current year, despite the earlier slump in the first half of the year, and with CEO Elon Musk forecasting a 20-30% growth in vehicle deliveries in 2025. Tesla’s share price jumped by 12% in post-market trading after sliding by -1.98% during the regular session yesterday. If that rise materialises today, it would largely erase Tesla’s -14% YTD decline. In turn, that’s helped to lift US equity futures this morning, with those on the S&P 500 (+0.19%) and the NASDAQ 100 (+0.48%) both pointing higher.
With just 12 days until the US election, yesterday also saw “Trump trades” continue to outperform. That comes as forecast models and prediction markets have continued to move in Trump’s direction, with the RealClearPolitics average of betting markets now giving him a 59% chance of victory. In terms of market moves, that saw Trump Media & Technology Group (+4.42%) reach a three-month high, whilst the recent rise in Treasury yields has also been connected to a growing probability of a Trump victory. Conversely, solar energy firms continued to lose ground given the perception they’d do better under a Democratic administration, including losses for First Solar (-4.46%) and SolarEdge Technologies (-14.99%).
Earlier in Europe, equities posted modest declines, with the STOXX 600 (-0.30%) losing ground for a third consecutive day, alongside losses for the DAX (-0.23%) and the CAC 40 (-0.50%).
The US sell-off yesterday was probably also influenced by investors dialling back the likelihood of aggressive rate cuts from the Fed. In fact, by the close yesterday, futures were pricing in the most hawkish rate path since the market turmoil back in the summer. So with fewer rate cuts priced in, and post-election fiscal concerns edging up, US Treasury yields continued to move higher yesterday, and the 10yr yield was up +3.8bps to 4.25%. That’s its highest level in almost three months, and marks a decent comeback from its intraday low of 3.60% back on September 17. Yesterday’s move wasn’t helped by a soft 20yr Treasury auction that saw bonds issued 1.6bp above the when-issued yield, their largest tail since May.
In terms of that rate path for the Fed, the rate priced in by the Fed’s December 2025 meeting was up another +6.3bps yesterday to 3.49%, meaning that it’s now up by more than 70bps from its recent low on September 16th. Or in other words, investors have gone from expecting 256bps of rate cuts by the end of next year (including the 50bps last month), to just 183bps by the close yesterday.
It was a different story in Europe however, as speculation mounted about the ECB delivering a larger 50bp rate cut. That was supported by comments from several officials, and ECB President Lagarde said they were “rather satisfied” with how inflation has moved lower. In the meantime, Portugal’s Centeno said that “50 basis points can be on the table”, whilst Bundesbank President Nagel said that “we keep our flexibility in every direction”. Later on, we heard Italy’s Panetta comment that “I would not take for granted, given the weakness of the economy, that we have to stop at the neutral rate”, echoing the tone of a Reuters report early in the day that some ECB policymakers have begun to debate whether rates will have to go below neutral. So that backdrop meant that yields on 10yr bunds (-1.3bps), OATs (-2.4bps) and BTPs (-4.2bps) all fell back, in contrast to the moves among US Treasuries.
That speculation about a 50bp rate cut then got a further boost from the Bank of Canada, who delivered their first 50bp cut of this cycle, taking their policy rate down to 3.75%. In the press conference, Governor Macklem said that their focus was “to maintain low, stable inflation. We need to stick the landing.” Moreover, he said that they “anticipate cutting our policy rate further to support demand and keep inflation on target”. So with the Fed and the Bank of Canada having now cut by 50bps at their recent meetings, that contributed to speculation that the ECB could soon follow as well.
Elsewhere, the mixture of US rates underperformance and the broader risk-off tone saw the dollar index (+0.34%) advance to its highest level since the start of August. It’s now risen for 15 of the past 18 sessions, with the euro falling to its weakest against the dollar since early July. The risk-off tone wasn’t helped by the Fed’s Beige Book either, which painted a more cautious picture on the US economy, suggesting that “…economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts”.
Events in the Middle East continue to lurk in the background, particularly in terms of how Israel might retaliate against Iran’s missile strikes earlier this month. So far there’s still no news on that, and Brent crude oil prices (-1.42%) fell back to $74.96/bbl yesterday, while WTI (-1.83% to $70.77/bbl) posted a larger decline as EIA data showed a larger than expected increase in US crude inventories. However, that’s mostly reversed overnight, with Brent crude oil prices up +1.13% this morning to $75.81/bbl. Separately, gold prices (-1.22%) also came off their record high on Tuesday as US real yields continued to move higher and concerns about inflation slipped back slightly.
Overnight in Asia, the major equity indices are trading lower this morning, which comes against the backdrop of weaker economic data overnight. For instance, we’re starting to get the October flash PMIs now, and Japan’s composite PMI was down to 49.4, which is the weakest reading since November 2022. Moreover, both the manufacturing (49.0) and services (49.3) prints were also beneath the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction. Meanwhile in South Korea, Q3 GDP growth came in softer-than-expected, at just +0.1% (vs. +0.4% expected), after contracting by -0.2% in Q2.
With that in mind, equities are struggling in Asia this morning, with the Hang Seng (-0.99%) as the biggest underperformer overnight. That’s been echoed elsewhere, with losses for the CSI 300 (-0.80%), the Shanghai Comp (-0.50%), the KOSPI (-0.37%) and the Nikkei (-0.11%). Australia is the one exception however, as the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.02%) has just about managed to post a modest gain.
There wasn’t too much data yesterday, although US existing home sales slowed to an annualised rate of 3.84m in September (vs. 3.88m expected), which is their lowest level since October 2010. In the meantime, the European Commission’s consumer confidence reading for the Euro Area ticked up to -12.5 in October, which is its highest level since February 2022.
To the day ahead now, and the main data highlight will be the October flash PMIs from around the world. In the US, we’ll also get the weekly initial jobless claims, along with new home sales for September. From central banks, we’ll hear from BoE Governor Bailey, the BoE’s Mann, the ECB’s Kazaks and Lane, and the Fed’s Hammack.
2B) European report.
TSLA +10%, Autos gain on China reports, PMIs mixed, USD & US yields soft into data – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 05:41 AM
European bourses are entirely in the green and reside just off session highs; US futures also gain, with NQ outperforming after strong TSLA (+10.7%) results.
Dollar is on the backfoot giving back some of this week’s gains, JPY outperforms with USD/JPY scaling back to a 151 handle.
USTs/Bunds are on a firmer footing, with EZ PMIs continuing to paint a dire picture in Europe; Gilts are the clear underperformer amid reports that Chancellor Reeves will announce major changes to fiscal rules releasing GBP 50bln for spending.
Crude continues to pick up, catching a bid following unconfirmed reports which indicated a fire in proximity to an Iranian nuclear facility in Karaj; XAU/base metals are firmer
Looking ahead, US Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, ECB’s Lane & McCaul, Fed’s Hammack, BoE’s Bailey & Mann.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.7%) began the session very modestly in positive territory, and sentiment has continued to improve as the morning progressed; as it stands, indices generally reside at session highs. The complex was generally unreactive to the French/German/EZ.
European sectors hold a strong positive bias; Travel & Leisure tops the pile, lifted by post-earnings gains in Evolution (+12.8%) and Sodexo (+4.5%). Autos were initially towards the middle of the pile, but moved up the gears amid Bloomberg reports that China is pressuring automakers to pause expansion in the EU due to the escalating trade conflict.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.5% NQ +0.5% RTY +0.5%) are broadly on a firmer footing, in tandem with strength seen across European indices, and in an attempt to reclaim some of the pressure seen in prior session.
USD is softer vs. peers with the recent rally in DXY pausing for breath. Fresh macro drivers for the US have been on the light side, but will pick-up in the form of jobless claims and PMIs, later today. DXY remains on a 104 handle and within Wednesday’s 104.09-104.57 range.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD but to a lesser extent than peers in the wake of this morning’s PMI data. EUR/USD was nudged lower in early trade following soft French PMI metrics; thereafter, the pair was granted some reprieve following slightly more encouraging German figures before the final EZ release printed mixed but underscored the complex growth picture for the region. EUR/USD currently sits around 1.08.
GBP was top of the G10 leaderboard early doors following a Reeves-induced jump in UK yields before upside for the pound was tempered by a softer outturn for UK PMI data. Cable is currently contained within yesterday’s 1.2908-95 range and below its 100DMA at 1.2964.
JPY is clawing back some ground vs. the USD in an attempt to reverse the recent trend which saw USD/JPY print a fresh multi-month peak at 153.18 yesterday. By way of comparison, yesterday’s low is still some way of at 150.97. Japanese Finance Minister Kato attempted to jawbone the currency overnight.
Antipodeans are both firmer vs. the USD as markets trade in a more pro-risk environment. AUD/USD has managed to move back above its 200DMA at 0.6628; NZD/USD is currently tucked within yesterday’s 0.5991-0.6053 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1286 vs exp. 7.1284 (prev. 7.1245).
Bunds are on a firmer footing and were heading higher into the French PMI metrics, which were weak and sparked some modest upside to a 133.27 peak. Thereafter, a strong (relatively speaking) set of data from Germany saw EGBs essentially pare this move to current levels of around 133.11. EZ PMIs were mixed and ultimately had little impact on price action.
Gilts gapped lower by 41 ticks and then extended lower by another 14 to a 95.70 base. Pressure which came on the back of a Guardian report that Chancellor Reeves will today confirm she will change the figure underpinning the existing fiscal rule to a broader measure, something she is expected to announce to the IMF later today. UK Flash PMIs were soft across the board with the outlook tepid and weighed on by numerous points of uncertainty; metrics which lifted Gilts modestly into the green, to a short-lived 96.31 peak. As it stands, Gilts are currently trading around 96.09.
USTs are firmer and pulled around alongside the above Flash PMIs ahead of its own release and weekly jobs data. Holding towards the 111-12 session high with the curve modestly flatter though with action across it a touch mixed at points as the belly finds itself the marginal laggard from a yield perspective.
Crude is on a firmer footing, initially catching a bid following unconfirmed reports which indicated a fire in proximity to a Iranian nuclear facility in Karaj; this move ultimately proved fleeting given the lack of details. Soon after, upside returned alongside a pickup in broader sentiment with Brent Dec currently near highs at around USD 76.34/bbl.
Spot gold is firmer, bolstered by the softer USD and yield environment in the US and EZ. At a USD 2737/oz peak, which is the lowest daily-high for the week thus far.
Base metals are generally in positive territory, given the encouraging risk tone which has emerged despite a cautious APAC handover.
Iraq’s Kerbala (140,000bpd) refinery to operate at around 50% capacity in the coming days.
French HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Oct) 47.3 vs. Exp. 49.0 (Prev. 48.6); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Oct) 48.3 vs. Exp. 49.9 (Prev. 49.6); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Oct) 44.5 vs. Exp. 44.9 (Prev. 44.6); “The HCOB Nowcast predicts only slight growth as the fourth quarter kicks off.”
German HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Oct) 48.4 vs. Exp. 47.6 (Prev. 47.5); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Oct) 51.4 vs. Exp. 50.6 (Prev. 50.6); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Oct) 42.6 vs. Exp. 40.8 (Prev. 40.6); “The start to the fourth quarter is better than expected. With services growing at a faster pace and manufacturing shrinking not as quickly as in the previous month, growth in the fourth quarter is a distinctive possibility”.
EU HCOB Composite Flash PMI (Oct) 49.7 vs. Exp. 49.8 (Prev. 49.6); HCOB Services Flash PMI (Oct) 51.2 vs. Exp. 51.5 (Prev. 51.4); HCOB Manufacturing Flash PMI (Oct) 45.9 vs. Exp. 45.3 (Prev. 45.0)
UK Flash Composite PMI (Oct) 51.7 vs. Exp. 52.6 (Prev. 52.6); Flash Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.3 vs. Exp. 51.4 (Prev. 51.5); Flash Services PMI (Oct) 51.8 vs. Exp. 52.4 (Prev. 52.4); “The early PMI data are indicative of the economy growing at a meagre 0.1% quarterly rate in October.”
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
ECB’s Holzmann said a quarter-point rate cut is probable in December and they are unlikely to have a 50bps cut in December but such a move is possible, while another option is a hold due to the October move, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Vasle says no urgency in talking about undershooting inflation target and cutting rates below neutral; should keep cutting rated in “measured” increments.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
Tesla Inc (TSLA) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.72 (exp. 0.58), Revenue 25.18bln (exp. 25.37bln). Gross margin 19.8% (exp. 16.8%), expects slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024. +10% in the pre-market
International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.30 (exp. 2.23), Revenue 14.97bln (exp. 15.07bln).
Boa weekly total card spending (Oct 19th) +1.9% Y/Y vs. prev. +0.8%; saw broad-based increases in spending growth
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
“An Iranian opposition organisation reports a fire at the nuclear power plant in the city of Kharaj; There are no reports from official Iranian media”, via N12 News. Note, original N12 report on X has since been deleted.
Israel Broadcasting Corporation announced IDF’s readiness to respond to the Iranian missile attack. Thereafter, Israeli Broadcasting Authority, via Sky News Arabia, reports “Israel on the verge of launching an attack on Iran despite US pressure”
Explosions were heard in Syria’s capital Damascus as a result of Israeli aggression, according to Syrian state TV.
Iraqi armed factions loyal to Iran announced the targeting of a vital target in the Golan with drones.
Pentagon said US Secretary of Defense Austin expressed concern in a call with his Israeli counterpart about reports of strikes against the Lebanese army, according to Sky News Arabia.
Turkey hit PKK targets in Northern Iraq and Syria after a deadly attack in Ankara, according to Turkish security sources.
OTHER
US President Biden said the US is announcing today that it will provide USD 20bln in loans to Ukraine.
US asked G7 to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium, according to Bloomberg.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin is on a firmer footing and trading just beneath USD 69k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks traded somewhat cautiously following the losses stateside where the major indices declined as participants digested earnings releases and negative stock-specific updates, while yields also continued to edge higher.
ASX 200 initially retreated following a further deterioration in manufacturing PMI data but then gradually clawed back opening losses with the recovery spearheaded by resilience in defensives and tech.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as participants reflected on recent currency moves and Japanese PMI data contracted.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid weakness in the tech and property sectors with the latter industry not helped after Moody’s noted that several developers are to feel earnings pain, while macro newsflow remained quiet and a continuation of the firm liquidity efforts by the PBoC also failed to inspire a turnaround.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
Japanese Finance Minister Kato said no comment on FX levels and intervention but noted it is desirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and is closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgency, while he added that one-sided, rapid FX moves were recently seen in the FX market.
BoJ Financial System Report: “Japanese banks have sufficient capital bases and stable funding bases to withstand stress similar to the global financial crisis…”
DATA RECAP
South Korean GDP QQ Advance (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.2%); YY Advance 1.5% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.3%)
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 49.7); Services PMI Flash SA (Oct) 49.3 (Prev. 53.1)
Japanese JibunBK Composite PMI Flash SA (Oct) 49.4 (Prev. 52.0)
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Oct) 46.6 (Prev. 46.7); Services PMI Flash (Oct) 50.6 (Prev. 50.5)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Oct) 49.8 (Prev. 49.6)
2C ASIAN REPORT
Tentative trade after numerous negative stateside updates, though TSLA +12% – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 01:36 AM
APAC stocks traded cautiously following the losses stateside as participants digested earnings releases and negative stock-specific updates, while yields also continued to edge higher.
DXY has pulled back a touch from recent gains, EUR/USD lingers just below the 1.08 mark, USD/JPY sits on a 152 handle.
European equity futures are indicative of a contained cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.3% on Wednesday.
ECB’s Centeno said 50bps is on the table with the data to determine the size of the cut. He later noted that the Bank is likely lagging behind the curve.
Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, New Home Sales, ECB’s Lane & McCaul, Fed’s Hammack, BoE’s Bailey & Mann.
Earnings from Renault, Orange, Danone, UniCredit, Equinor, London Stock Exchange Group, Unilever, Abrdn, Bunzl, Barclays, Honeywell International, United Parcel Service, Southwest Airlines, Northrop Grumman, American Airlines Group, Union Pacific, Capital One Financial.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were pressured and the major indices all finished in the red with the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 leading the declines amid weakness in mega-cap names Apple (-2.2%) and Nvidia (-2.8%) with the former weighed on by cautious analyst commentary and reports of Mac delays, while NVDA was hit after it announced a flaw in the Blackwell AI chip, although TSMC had fixed the issue. As such, sectors were largely in the red with Consumer Discretionary and Technology the laggards although Real Estate and Utilities showed some resilience and were the only industries to finish positively due to their haven nature in risk-off trade, while there was a deluge of earnings and stock specific headlines that added to recent woes with the highlights arguably the McDonald’s (-5%) E.Coli outbreak and Boeing’s (BA) (-1.8%) weak earnings report.
SPX -0.92% at 5,797, NDX -1.55% at 20,067, DJIA -0.96% at 42,515, RUT -0.79% at 2,214.
Fed’s Beige Book said on balance, economic activity was little changed in nearly all Districts since early September although two Districts reported modest growth. Furthermore, most Districts reported declining manufacturing activity but activity in the banking sector was generally steady to up slightly and loan demand was mixed, while some Districts noted an improvement in the outlook due to the decline in interest rates.
Apple (AAPL) iPhone 16 orders were reportedly cut by around 10mln units for Q4 2024-Q2 2025 and there is no evidence yet that Apple Intelligence could boost iPhone shipments in the near term, according to TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. It was separately reported that Apple delayed its planned debut of Mac Studio until later in 2025 and is preparing to launch a new low-end iPad around spring 2025, as well as readies MacBook Air models with the M4 chip for early 2025.
Tesla Inc (TSLA) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.72 (exp. 0.58), Revenue 25.18bln (exp. 25.37bln). Gross margin 19.8% (exp. 16.8%), expects slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 2024. Tesla shares were higher by 12.1% after-hours
International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.30 (exp. 2.23), Revenue 14.97bln (exp. 15.07bln).
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks traded somewhat cautiously following the losses stateside where the major indices declined as participants digested earnings releases and negative stock-specific updates, while yields also continued to edge higher.
ASX 200 initially retreated following a further deterioration in manufacturing PMI data but then gradually clawed back opening losses with the recovery spearheaded by resilience in defensives and tech.
Nikkei 225 traded indecisively as participants reflected on recent currency moves and Japanese PMI data contracted.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were pressured amid weakness in the tech and property sectors with the latter industry not helped after Moody’s noted that several developers are to feel earnings pain, while macro newsflow remained quiet and a continuation of the firm liquidity efforts by the PBoC also failed to inspire a turnaround.
US equity futures were mixed with mild outperformance in Nasdaq 100 futures after Tesla shares surged by a double-digit percentage after-market on the back of a strong earnings report.
European equity futures are indicative of a contained cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 0.3% on Wednesday.
FX
DXY took a breather after recent gains and with very little in the way of fresh catalysts although the attention now shifts to upcoming data releases stateside including Jobless Claims, New Home Sales and the latest PMI data.
EUR/USD lacked direction following the recent slip beneath the 1.0800 handle and after the slew of ECB speakers including Centeno who stated that downside risks to growth are accumulating and that 50bps is on the table, while Panetta said the EZ economy is weakening and can’t exclude that the ECB must go below neutral.
GBP/USD was contained after retreating from near the 1.3000 level, while there were comments from BoE Governor Bailey who noted that disinflation had taken place faster than expected.
USD/JPY continued its gradual pullback from yesterday’s brief foray into 153.00 territory, while the recent price moves have spurred a renewal of the familiar jawboning by Japanese officials.
Antipodeans rebounded off the prior day’s lows but with the recovery limited following weak Manufacturing PMI data from Australia and the mixed risk appetite.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1286 vs exp. 7.1284 (prev. 7.1245).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures nursed some of the losses from recent bear flattening with a rebound facilitated by support at 111.00.
Bund futures traded rangebound beneath the 133.00 level with demand restricted following this week’s bond sell-off.
10yr JGB futures were indecisive amid the non-committal risk tone in Tokyo and after weaker results from the latest 20yr JGB auction, although prices were later boosted as Japanese stocks eventually faltered again.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures recouped the prior day’s losses amid ongoing geopolitical concerns and with mild upside also seen after reports of explosions in the Syrian capital of Damascus due to Israeli aggression.
Spot gold regained some composure after sliding from its record highs alongside recent dollar strength.
Copper futures gradually edged higher but with further upside capped amid the mixed risk appetite.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin rebounded overnight and returned to above the USD 67,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
BoJ Governor Ueda said the BoJ is still maintaining a “fairly easy” monetary stance and underlying inflation has been rising slowly. Ueda said when there is huge uncertainty, would usually want to proceed cautiously and gradually, while he added that it is very hard to pin down the appropriate size of rate hikes from here on and it is very important to make clear their basic monetary policy strategy to contain excessive build-up of yen carry trade positions.
Japanese Finance Minister Kato said no comment on FX levels and intervention but noted it is desirable for currencies to move stably reflecting economic fundamentals and is closely watching FX moves with a sense of urgency, while he added that one-sided, rapid FX moves were recently seen in the FX market.
DATA RECAP
South Korean GDP QQ Advance (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -0.2%)
South Korean GDP YY Advance (Q3) 1.5% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.3%)
Japanese JibunBK Manufacturing PMI Flash SA (Oct) 49.0 (Prev. 49.7)
Japanese JibunBK Services PMI Flash SA (Oct) 49.3 (Prev. 53.1)
Japanese JibunBK Composite PMI Flash SA (Oct) 49.4 (Prev. 52.0)
Australian Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash (Oct) 46.6 (Prev. 46.7)
Australian Judo Bank Services PMI Flash (Oct) 50.6 (Prev. 50.5)
Australian Judo Bank Composite PMI Flash (Oct) 49.8 (Prev. 49.6)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel Broadcasting Corporation announced IDF’s readiness to respond to the Iranian missile attack.
Explosions were heard in Syria’s capital Damascus as a result of Israeli aggression, according to Syrian state TV.
Iraqi armed factions loyal to Iran announced the targeting of a vital target in the Golan with drones.
Hezbollah operations room said it used new drones and precision missiles for the first time in strikes against Israel.
US Secretary of State Blinken asked to reduce the intensity of attacks in Beirut during his visit to Israel, according to Al Jazeera. It was also reported that a rocket attack in Israel forced Blinken to briefly take shelter, according to NBC.
Pentagon said US Secretary of Defense Austin expressed concern in a call with his Israeli counterpart about reports of strikes against the Lebanese army, according to Sky News Arabia.
Turkey hit PKK targets in Northern Iraq and Syria after a deadly attack in Ankara, according to Turkish security sources.
OTHER
US President Biden said the US is announcing today that it will provide USD 20bln in loans to Ukraine.
US asked G7 to consider sanctions on Russian palladium and titanium, according to Bloomberg.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE Governor Bailey said disinflation has taken place faster than expected in the UK and elsewhere, while he added that a high UK savings rate reflects consumer caution and noted that UK inflation is below target but is pushed around by annual base effects.
UK Chancellor Reeves will announce at the IMF plans to change the debt measurement rule to target public sector net financial liabilities which will open the door for the government to spend up to an additional GBP 50bln on infrastructure projects, according to The Guardian citing a government source.
ECB’s Centeno said downside risks to growth are accumulating and 50bps is on the table with the data to determine the size of the cut. He later noted that the Bank is likely lagging behind the curve.
ECB’s Escriva said the risk to inflation remains balanced.
ECB’s Holzmann said a quarter-point rate cut is probable in December and they are unlikely to have a 50bps cut in December but such a move is possible, while another option is a hold due to the October move, according to Bloomberg.
ECB’s Panetta said the ECB has clearly seen improvement in the inflation outlook and low inflation and weak growth are conducive to further cuts, while he added the EZ economy is weakening and can’t exclude that the ECB must go below neutral. Furthermore, he said they are still far away from the neutral rate and would not take for granted that they will stop at the neutral rate.
ECB’s Vasle says no urgency in talking about undershooting inflation target and cutting rates below neutral; should keep cutting rated in “measured” increments.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
3C JAPAN
3D. CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
EU/
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HAMAS/
Hamas official says Russian-Israeli hostages to be prioritized for release in Moscow visit – report
Deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, Mousa Abu Marzouk, insisted that their release would still be contingent on a deal.
Mousa Abu Marzouk, deputy head of Hamas’s political bureau, announced that the group is ready to prioritize the release of two Russian nationals held in Gaza, Alexandre Troufanov and Maxin Herkin, in a potential future deal with Israel, during an interview with the Kremlin-backed media outlet RIA Novosti, on Thursday.
Abu Marzouk stated that Troufanov is currently in the custody of Islamic Jihad and was captured during the fighting. “He will be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held in Israel,” he said.
Regarding Herkin, Abu Marzouk explained that Herkin was a Ukrainian citizen when captured. “His family later relocated to Russia and secured citizenship for him, enabling Russia to intervene in efforts to free him. However, he is not a Russian citizen but a former Israeli army soldier,” he said.
Despite this, Abu Marzouk emphasized that out of respect for their Russian counterparts, Troufanov and Herkin will be prioritized for release.
On Wednesday night, Abu Marzouk met with Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that their meeting focused on the issue of hostages held in Gaza.
Mousa Abu Marzouk in 2006 in Damascus. (credit: Wikimedia Commons)
Previous promises
Hamas has made similar statements in the past, saying they would prioritize the release of Troufanov in a deal, along with Alexander Lubanov. However, Lubanov was executed by Hamas in Rafah in September.
The PIJ released two videos of Troufanov in May, asking the Israeli public to keep protesting and call for a ceasefire so that he could be brought home
END
HAMAS//HEZBOLLAHISRAEL
They are surrendering like crazy! They have had enough.
IDF apprehends over 200 terrorists in Gaza, IAF strikes 160 Hezbollah targets
The soldiers of the 162nd Division continue their operational activity in the area of Jabaliya, eliminating dozens of terrorists and dismantling terrorist infrastructure, the military said.
The IAF struck over 160 Hezbollah terror targets in Lebanon over the past day, the military reported on Thursday morning in a list of strategic successes including the apprehension of 200 terrorists from the Gaza Strip.
Additionally, targeted ground raids in Lebanon saw IDF troops eliminate dozens of Hezbollah terrorists, the military said adding that 20 of which had been eliminated over the past day.
While operating in Lebanon, soldiers located living quarters belonging to Hezbollah terrorists, and dozens of weapons including AK-47s and shoulder-fired missiles – which had been found inside a house in southern Lebanon.
The military added that soldiers successfully located weapons storage facilities containing hundreds of anti-tank missiles, mortar shells, missile launchers, explosives, and more.
The IAF also eliminated a number of terrorist cells.
Hezbollah weapons discovered by IDF soldiers operating in southern Lebanon on October 24, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
On the southern front
The IDF also announced a number of successes on the southern front, where the military has spent over a year fighting the Hamas terrorist group.
The soldiers of the 162nd Division continue their operational activity in the area of Jabaliya, eliminating dozens of terrorists and dismantling terrorist infrastructure, the military said.
Since the start of the Division’s operation in the area, a large number of Palestinians have been evacuated to safer areas, it was reported, despite Hamas’ efforts to prevent civilians from evacuating the area
The soldiers also successfully apprehended over 200 terrorists, the update announced.
Additionally, the soldiers have eliminated a number of terrorists and located and dismantled weapons, including AK-47s, launchers, and explosives.
On Wednesday, IDF artillery struck and dismantled a number of terrorist infrastructure sites in the central Gaza Strip.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah continues to fire rockets at Tel Aviv but fewer in numbers
(JerusalemPost)
Hezbollah fires rockets at Tel Aviv, year after Simhat Torah attack; IDF on alert at Gaza border
Report says troops preparing for possible Hamas rocket fire, attempt to carry out attack on Hebrew calendar anniversary of Oct. 7 atrocities
File: Israeli military vehicles and tanks near the Gaza border, as they prepare to enter the Strip for a military operation, October 6, 2024. (Yonatan Sindel/ Flash90)
As Israelis began to mark the beginning of Simhat Torah Wednesday night, several rockets launched by Hezbollah in Lebanon triggered sirens in Tel Aviv and towns across central Israel.
The IDF said four rockets were launched in the attack. Two of the launches were intercepted, and one fell in an open area, the military said. The fourth rocket impacted in an undisclosed location.
A total of some 135 rockets were launched at Israel throughout the day, according to the IDF. The rocket attacks mostly targeted northern Israel. There were no reported casualties.
Palestinian media reported that either one of the rockets fired, or fragments from an interceptor, landed in the Palestinian village of Ras Atiya, near the West Bank security barrier.
Footage from the scene appeared to show damage to vehicles. A security source told Kan news that one Palestinian was lightly injured.
Hezbollah claimed in a statement that it had hit a military factory in the Tel Aviv suburbs.
הירי מלבנון למרכז: הפלסטינים מדווחים על נפילה/שברי יירוט בכפר ראס עטיה, דרומית לקלקיליה וסמוך לגדר ההפרדה. בתיעודים מהמקום נראה שנגרם נזק לכלי רכב. לפי גורם ביטחוני: פלסטיני אחד נפצע קל pic.twitter.com/eWyI0qcH4O
Meanwhile, the military ordered its troops along the Gaza Strip’s border to be on high alert amid concerns that the Hamas terror group will try to fire rockets or carry out an attack on the Hebrew calendar anniversary of its October 7, 2023 onslaught, which it launched on the Simhat Torah holiday last year, according to a TV report.
A year ago, the holiday was devastatingly marred by Hamas’s slaughter of 1,200 people, mostly civilians, as it took 251 people hostage to Gaza from southern Israel.
Similar preparations were made ahead of the Gregorian calendar anniversary earlier this month. The terror group, decimated by war and based in an enclave largely reduced to rubble, managed to fire a handful of rockets into Israel on October 7.
The October 7 rockets, fired at Israeli communities near the border and at the Tel Aviv area, were a small fraction of the firepower Hamas once possessed.
Israelis take cover inside a bomb shelter as a siren alert is sounded in Tel Aviv, October 23, 2024. (Yehoshua Yosef/Flash90)
TV news airs footage of October 7 victims
Also on the anniversary, Channel 12 published photos and footage of some of the October 7 victims as they celebrated Sukkot and Simhat Torah one year ago, shortly before disaster befell them.
One photo showed then-nine-month-old Kfir Bibas being held under the Kibbutz Nir Oz sukkah last year. Bibas was kidnapped with his four-year-old brother Ariel and parents Shiri and Yarden. All four remain held in Gaza, with their fate unclear.
Kfir Bibas is pictured in a sukkah at Kibbutz Nir Oz in October 2023. (Screen capture/Channel 12)
A video showed Yossi Sharabi, who was likely killed in an IDF strike while held in Gaza, celebrating Simhat Torah in Kibbutz Be’eri, hours before he was kidnapped.
Yossi Sharabi celebrates Simchat Torah in Kibbutz Be’eri hours before he was kidnapped during Hamas’s October 7 onslaught. (Screen capture/Channel 12)
Gadi Mozes, who is being held captive, was shown in a picture celebrating Sukkot with his family in Kibbutz Nir Oz in October 2023.
Gadi Mozes celebrates Sukkot with his family in Kibbutz Nir Oz in October 2023. (Courtesy)
Liri Elbag, who was abducted in the attack, was also shown celebrating the holiday in a photo.
Liri Elbag celebrates Sukkot with her family in October 2023. (Courtesy)
A video aired showed soldiers at the Nahal Oz military base celebrating Sukkot last year. The base was devastated in the attack, with many soldiers killed and kidnapped.
Soldiers at the Nahal Oz military base celebrate Sukkot in October 2023. (Courtesy)
Hostage Ofer Calderon was shown celebrating Sukkot with his family in Kibbutz Nir Oz in an image.
Ofer Calderon (top right) celebrates Sukkot with his family in Kibbutz Nir Oz in October 2023. (Courtesy)
Uriel Baruch, who was kidnapped and murdered in captivity, was shown celebrating Sukkot with his family in a picture.
Uriel Baruch, who was kidnapped by Hamas and murdered in captivity, celebrates Sukkot with his family in October 2023. (Courtesy)
It is believed that 97 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.
Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 37 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.
Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014
END
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
IDF pounds Beirut after Hezbollah’s rocket attack. Six buildings demolished!
(JerusalemPost)
IDF pounds Beirut after Hezbollah’s Simchat Torah eve rocket fire at central Israel
State media reports six buildings leveled in strikes on Lebanese capital; Hezbollah-linked broadcaster says it vacated office that was targeted without evacuation warning
Flames and smoke rises from buildings hit by Israeli airstrikes on the southern suburb of Beirut, October 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
Lebanon state media reported 17 Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, with six buildings leveled and the vacated offices of a Hezbollah-linked broadcaster hit on Wednesday, after the Lebanese terror group fired rockets at central Israel as the country began marking the Simhat Torah holiday.
AFPTV footage showed a massive explosion followed by smaller blasts in the southern suburbs following an Israeli army evacuation warning for the area, where Hezbollah holds sway.
The official National News Agency (NNA) reported at least 17 Israeli raids, marking one of the most intensive nights of strikes targeting the area in the past month.
Six buildings were destroyed around the suburb of Laylaki, NNA said, calling the raids “the most violent in the area since the beginning of the war.”
The strikes came shortly after the Israel Defense Forces’ Arabic-language spokesman, Avichay Adraee, issued evacuation warnings on social media platform X.
There was no warning, however, for a strike that hit the Jnah neighborhood in southern Beirut that targeted an office the pro-Iran TV channel Al-Mayadeen said it vacated.
“Al-Mayadeen holds the Israeli occupation accountable for the attack on a known media office for a known media outlet,” said the pan-Arab broadcaster, which is aligned with Hezbollah.
The strike killed one person and wounded five others, according to Lebanon’s health ministry. The name of the person killed was unknown.
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a residential complex in the Leylaki neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs on October 23, 2024. (AFP)
The office was hit by two rockets and “completely destroyed” in the strike, which sparked a blaze inside, NNA reported.
Al-Mayadeen’s office is located near the former premises of the Iranian embassy in Beirut and close to a Lebanese army checkpoint.
Israel launched strikes earlier Wednesday in the ancient coastal city of Tyre, which according to NNA caused “massive destruction and serious damage to homes, infrastructure, buildings, shops and cars.”
The Lebanese health ministry said 16 people were wounded in the strikes on Tyre, while AFP footage showed entire neighborhoods buried under rubble.
“The whole city shook,” Rana, a resident who asked to only use her first name over security concerns, told AFP after fleeing to the seafront following an Israeli military warning for people to evacuate much of Tyre’s center in the morning.
The IDF strikes targeted “command and control complexes of various Hezbollah units,” according to a social media post by Adraee.
Adraee described Tyre as an “important” Hezbollah stronghold, although Amal, an ally of the Iran-backed group, was believed to hold more sway there.
Smoke plumes erupt following an Israeli airstrike on a neighborhood of Lebanon’s southern city of Tyre on October 23, 2024. (Kawnat Haju/AFP)
Before the Israel-Hezbollah border skirmishes began last year, at least 50,000 people lived in Tyre, a vibrant city home to both Christians and Muslims. The city was emptied of most of its population when Israel’s escalated its offensive against Hezbollah last month.
Only 14,500 remained there on Tuesday, said Bilal Kashmar of Tyre’s disaster management unit.
But the city saw a fresh exodus on Wednesday as people began to escape immediately after the Israeli army issued an evacuation warning for four neighborhoods at 8:00 a.m.
Emergency teams drove around the city, urging people to evacuate over megaphones, a video journalist collaborating with AFP said.
An AFP photographer in the city of Sidon, further north, saw dozens of cars on the coastal highway filled with families carrying mattresses, suitcases and clothes.
Tyre is one of the oldest continuously inhabited cities in the world. It is home to important archaeological sites, mainly from Roman times.
Kashmar said there has yet to be a damage assessment for heritage sites.
However, “damage is possible,” he said, explaining that one strike hit less than 50 meters away from one of the city’s ruins.
UNESCO said it was “closely following the impact of the ongoing conflict on the World Heritage site of Tyre” using remote sensing tools and satellite imagery.
Emergency services clear the rubble from the site of an Israeli strike that targeted the southern Lebanese city of Tyre on October 23, 2024. (Kawnat Haju/AFP)
Since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah-led forces have been attacking Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.
Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday that Israel uncovered a plot by Hezbollah to attack via underground tunnels involving jeeps and missiles, telling French broadcasters CNews and Europe 1 that had the plan succeeded, such an assault would be been more damaging than the October 7, 2023, Hamas onslaught.
“A hundred meters, two hundred meters from the border we found tunnels, tunnels that were preparing an invasion of Israel, an attack even greater than on October 7,” Netanyahu said, according to a simultaneous translation provided by the networks.
“With jeeps, with motorbikes, with rockets, with missiles. They were planning an invasion.”
Netanyahu had told French daily Le Figaro earlier this month that the Israeli army found Russian cutting-edge military hardware in Hezbollah arms caches.
Flames and smoke rises from buildings hit by Israeli airstrikes on the southern suburb of Beirut, October 23, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
BEIRUT — An Israeli airstrike targeting an office belonging to a Beirut-based TV station killed one person, Lebanon’s Health Ministry says.
The ministry says five other people, including a child, were wounded in Wednesday’s strike. The child was seriously injured and admitted to the hospital.
Pan-Arab TV channel Al-Mayadeen, which is politically allied with the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, said its office in the area between Jnah and Ouzai on the outskirts of Beirut’s southern suburbs was targeted.
“Al-Mayadeen holds the Israeli occupation accountable for the attack on a known media office for a known media outlet,” Al-Mayadeen TV said.
The name of the person killed is unknown.
Al Mayadeen said that the office had been evacuated. The Israeli army did not issue a warning before the strike.
END
ISRAEL LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH
Another strike by Israel of 4 residential complex in Laylaki suburb
(JerusalemPost)
Lebanon media says 4 Israeli strikes destroy residential complex in Beirut’s Laylaki suburb
23 October 2024, 10:58 pm
Lebanese state media says four Israeli strikes destroyed a residential complex near Beirut’s southern suburb of Laylaki.
“Israeli warplanes launched four very violent raids targeting a residential complex in the vicinity of Laylaki, completely destroying it and causing a large fire,” the official National News Agency says.
Israel has been targeting Hezbollah sites throughout Beirut intensively throughout the past several weeks.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
BALLISTIC MISSILES/QADER 2 MISSILES
These are the missiles that I have been telling you about. If a multiple of these are fired, then Israel will have no choice but to nuke Lebanon and end it all
(zerohedge0
Hezbollah Targets Tel Aviv With Large Iranian Missiles Launched From Underground Silos
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 02:25 PM
The Israeli army says that over 120 rockets have been fired from Hezbollah in Lebanon on Thursday, resulting in at least five injuries.
Some intercepts of the inbound projectiles have been made, but clearly a number of rockets have hit the ground, as the Shia paramilitary group backed by Iran continues targeting Haifa and other sites across northern Israel. Some of the launches of the past 24 hours appear to have included large Iranian-made surface to surface missiles. Hezbollah channels have publicized the recent launch of this beast below…
“According to a video published on X (formerly Twitter) on October 23, 2024, Hezbollah combatants launched Iranian-made Qader-2 surface-to-surface cruise missiles from underground silos, targeting Israeli territory,” one regional war monitor wrote.
“This marked a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict, showcasing Hezbollah’s growing missile capabilities and its increasing reliance on advanced military technology,” the report added. The group began showcasing Qader-2 launches about a week or more ago.
At least one large explosion was heard in or above northern Tel Aviv on Wednesday, and it may have been the inbound Qader-2. Israel’s anti-air defense systems may have intercepted it, but amid the fog of war it remains unclear which projectiles make it through to hit the ground or buildings and which are intercepted.
Hezbollah has released the following footage showing the launch of an Iranian missile from an underground silo:
Hezbollah vs IDF in NW Tel Aviv: Qader 2 precision-guided ballistic missile strike against the headquarters of Mossad and Unit 8200 at IDF base Glilot. [Hezbollah 23/10] pic.twitter.com/zkG6D72dGU
Meanwhile, Israel has continued large attacks on the south Beirut area, as well as in southern Lebanon. Neither side has issued specific details on what exactly is unfolding day-to-day in the ground war in southern Lebanon.
Some regional reports have claimed that Hezbollah has halted the Israeli army’s advance. While impossible to verify with certainty, one Lebanon-based news source cited the following:
“The enemy’s losses, according to what the Islamic Resistance fighters monitored, amounted to more than 70 dead and more than 600 wounded officers and soldiers of the Israeli enemy army,” the statement said.
It adds that 28 Merkava tanks, four military bulldozers, an armed vehicle, and an armored troop carrier were destroyed by the Lebanese resistance.
The US and Israel have continued to urge the Lebanese government to take actions to disarm Hezbollah, or else weaken the group.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati has said that only the government army should carry weapons, but the statement will have no effect, as Hezbollah is by far the most well-armed entity in Lebanon. “Lebanese authorities must deploy over [all] Lebanese territory and weapons should be carried only by the state and the Lebanese army,” Mikati said in Paris.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinking is touring the Gulf states, still trying to salvage a potential Israel-Hamas peace deal. “We haven’t yet really determined whether Hamas is prepared to engage, but the next step is getting the negotiators together… we’ll certainly learn more in the coming days.” he said.
The situation in south Gaza continues to get more desperate:
🔴 Famine begins to spread in Southern Gaza Strip
Thousands of Palestinians crowd in front of bakeries in the southern #Gaza Strip to obtain bread in light of the shortage of flour and the rise in its prices as result of brutal Israeli siege. pic.twitter.com/IZP4urzZru
He also announced another $135 million in humanitarian aid for the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank; however, human rights organizations have accused Israel of routinely blocking outside aid, even when it is sent from Washington.
is Israel responsible?
IRAN
Fire breaks out at Iranian power plant, Iranian media silent – report
Hezbollah Claims It Killed Over 70 Israeli Soldiers On Lebanese Soil During Clashes
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 02:45 AM
Hezbollah in a new Wednesday statement claims that it has killed over 70 Israeli troopssince the IDF’s cross-border offensive began in southern Lebanon earlier this month.
“Hezbollah says its fighters killed more than 70 Israeli troops in its clashes with Israeli forces, updating a statement from last week saying 55 were killed since a ground invasion was launched earlier this month,” Reuters reports based on the statement.
Israel’s own casualty count significantly differs, as it says it has lost about 20 soldiers inside Lebanon during the offensive operations.
But over more than the past year of Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks, Israel says it has lost 30 more troops who were stationed in northern Israel.
The IDF has put the number of Hezbollah militants it has killed in the hundreds. This includes the latest high-value target which both sides have belatedly confirmed killed: Hashem Safieddine.
Safieddine was widely seen as taking over leadership of Hezbollah in the wake of Hasan Nasrallah’s death. Israel has reportedly killed at least seven high-ranking Hezbollah commanders and officials in recent weeks.
Hezbollah confirmed Safieddine’s death in a statement, saying “We pledge to our great martyr and his martyred brothers to continue the path of resistance and jihad until achieving its goals of freedom and victory.”
Israel has continued targeting Beirut alongside ground operations in south Lebanon, but the port city of Tyre has also been coming under heavy bombardment on Wednesday.
Both sides are touting successes. Al Jazeera reports on the Lebanese side as follows:
Hezbollah says it fired “precision missiles” and launched new types of attack drones for the first time in clashes with Israeli troops.
The Lebanese group said it was able to push back Israeli soldiers during battles in several border villages in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah said it forced Israeli troops to “retreat behind the frontier” after they attempted to infiltrate from the outskirts of the south Lebanon village of Aitaroun.
Wednesday also witnessed an attempted Hezbollah strike deep into Israel, on Tel Aviv.
Hezbollah has belatedly confirmed the death of the Shia cleric seen as stepping into Nasrallah’s place…
⚡️#BREAKING Hezb-Allah announces the “martyrdom of the head of the Executive Council of Hezbollah, Sayyed Hashem Safi al-Din” pic.twitter.com/v2wgnqCU07
“Two launches were intercepted by the air force, another launch fell in an open area, in addition, a fall was detected in the area. So far, no casualties have been reported,” the Israeli army said of the rocket launched at the city.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/THURSDAY MORNING
Israel raids Radwan forces underground bases and finds massive cache of weapons. The Hezbollah game plan was identical to Hamas: they were going to storm the Galilee from underground tunnels. This was thwarted by the IDF
IDF sodiers have raided several underground bases belonging to Hezbollah’s special unit, the Radwan Forces, the military announced on Thursday.
Troops of the 646th Brigade conducted ” limited, localized, targeted ground raids” against several bases.
Hezbollah weapons seized by IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, October 24, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
They cleared several bases of terrorists and dismantled several pieces of terror infrastructure as well as weapons caches and manufacturing compounds.
The bases were intended for use by the Radwan Forces as part of Hezbollah’s “Conquer the Galilee” plan.
Hezbollah weapons seized by IDF soldiers in southern Lebanon, October 24, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Inside the base
Inside the IDF discovered bunk beds, storage cabinets, food supplies, infrastructure for long-term stay, a large amount of equipment, weapons, and abandoned offensive positions.
Troops located four Hezbollah weapons storage facilities, some of which were inside civilian homes.
The uncovered storage facilities contained a significant number of weapons, including AK-47 rifles, ammunition, rockets, mortars, shoulder-fired missiles, RPGs, and advanced anti-tank missiles. All of which were seized by the IDF.
American deterioration and the appeasement of the Islamo-Marxist alliance, pre and post 10/7
The assault on Israel by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran are an attack on the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, secular life, women, and human dignity.
By ADAM MILSTEINOCTOBER 23, 2024 15:05Updated: OCTOBER 23, 2024 17:48
‘Israel is the Floodgate’ – A design by Adam Milstein Foundation(photo credit: Adam Milstein)
Just over a year ago, Hamas unleashed an attack on Israel with unimaginable barbarity. This was not just an isolated act of terrorism, nor was it a sudden eruption of violence. The seeds of 10/7 were sown for decades. And for those who’ve been paying attention, the 10/7 attack, and the explosion of antisemitism in America and Western countries since, was no surprise.
September 11th exposed America to the threats of radical Islam. But as years passed, America and the West became complacent. More than two decades from 9/11, Islamists have not adjusted their aims or intent, but now enjoy full support by many factions of the far left. The fatal flaw of the West? Believing the false premise that radical Islam aligns with liberal values.
Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, Al Qaeda, the Houthis, and the Islamic Republic of Iran’s fates are sealed in the book of history. They are genocidal, oppressive, radical Muslim entities who welcome destruction and death. But what happens when future generations ask: “Who enabled their rise and prominence in Europe and America?” We allowed them to use every aspect of our democracy, such as immigration, education, religious liberty, politics, Diversity, Equality, Inclusion, etc. to gain power, influence and, in some cases, dominance.
For two decades, I have written about the threat the Islamo-left alliance posed not only to Jews, but to all Americans. I spoke about it to whoever would listen. I wish I was wrong. I wish I had been crying wolf. Unfortunately, the 10/7 attack and the subsequent wave of Jew-hatred propelled by radical Muslims and far-left movements has proven me, tragically, correct.
Earlier this month, we mourned, we grieved, and we remembered 10/7. We commemorate the lives of innocent men, women, and children brutally murdered by Hamas. And how did Americans at elite universities mark the anniversary of the day when the most Jews were killed since the Holocaust? They celebrated. They glorified the perpetrators.
The Deterioration of America and Western Values
Universities are breeding grounds for radical ideologies, including antisemitism. For the past year, almost every weekend, young people in Keffiyehs have filled the streets, threatening Jews, carrying signs that call for the destruction of the world’s only Jewish state. These same people issue calls to bring down the Empire (referring to the US), and light the American flag on fire. They vilify the values that built America: democracy, free speech, individual rights, and the rule of law.
In this world, moral equivalence reigns. The narrative that there is no difference between good and evil, Israel and Hamas, or between those defending their citizens and terrorists determined to harm innocents.
America’s wavering and waffling support of Israel signals to radical groups that the West no longer stands firmly for the principles of freedom and human dignity. This weakness emboldens enemies of democracy and gives them license to act with impunity.
Appeasement of Evil Leads to Tragedy
For too long, radical Muslim movements have been given a pass by the international community influenced by the far-left. Hamas, Hezbollah, ISIS, Iran, and their ilk have grown in strength and influence, not because they are powerful forces, but because the West has repeatedly chosen diplomacy and appeasement over moral clarity. This willingness to engage with regimes and organizations that openly call for the destruction of Israel and the West has predictably led to disaster.
The Iran nuclear deal, celebrated by many as a diplomatic victory, normalized and empowered Iran – the world’s foremost state sponsor of terrorism. By offering legitimacy and financial relief to Iran, the deal strengthened the regime’s proxies, helped supply and train Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen and the Shiah militias in Iraq, and allowed the IRGC to expand their reach. Instead of confronting Iran and its proxies, the United States and the West empowered it, leading directly to the Hamas’ 10/7 attack, Hezbollah’s daily missile attacks on Israeli civilians, and Iran’s ballistic missiles attacks on Israel.
This policy of appeasement is not just confined to the Middle East. Within the West itself, government officials, institutions, and human rights organizations legitimize Islamist groups, parrot their views and embrace their rhetoric. Hamas is regularly portrayed as a political movement fighting for Palestinian liberation, when it is a terrorist organization with a charter that explicitly calls for the annihilation of Jews worldwide.
Evil does not compromise. There’s a reason that Neville Chamberlain’s name is associated with blunder and Winston Churchill’s name evokes courage.
Churchill knew what Chamberlain failed to understand about Nazi Germany. Evil cannot be reasoned with or moderated, it can only be defeated. When it comes to brinksmanship, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran are no different.
A Call for Moral Clarity
The assault on Israel by Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iran are an attack on the values of freedom, democracy, human rights, secular life, women, and human dignity. They were an attack on the Western world.
Now is the time for moral clarity. Israel is the floodgate. The fight to defend Israel is a fight to defend Western values. Appeasement and moral ambiguity will only lead to more violence and hatred. The West must confront its enemies within and stand with Israel against the enemies on its border. Not just for the sake of the Jewish state, but for the sake of freedom and democracy everywhere.
This op-ed is published in partnership with a coalition of organizations that fight antisemitism across the world. Read the previous article by Ellen Van Praagh.
END
opinion piece/Israel et al
We’ve had the victory pictures; here’s how Israel is aiming to actually win the war
Sinwar and Nasrallah are gone, but their weakened terror groups are still dangerous and Iran’s regime is untouched. The IDF, Netanyahu government and US are working, sometimes in harmony, to change that
IDF troops stand over the body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar in Gaza on October 17, 2024. (Courtesy)
This Editor’s Note was sent out earlier Wednesday in ToI’s weekly update email to members of the Times of Israel Community. To receive these Editor’s Notes as they’re released, join the ToI Community here.
It was the elimination that Israel had desperately sought for a full year — arguably the ostensible victory picture: Yahya Sinwar, the primary figure in the most cataclysmic attack in the history of sovereign Israel, finally forced out of his tunnels into the open and killed by the soldiers of the Israel Defense Forces, his last moments and lifeless corpse there for all to see in the rubble to which he has reduced Gaza.
And the killing of Sinwar in Rafah last Wednesday was indeed an essential component in Israel’s necessary victory over Hamas — practically, in terms of his centrality to that terrorist-army-government bent on Israel’s destruction, and psychologically, in terms of Israel’s long climb out of the abyss into which Sinwar plunged us on October 7, 2023.
But his demise, as has been underlined every moment since it was confirmed, does not mark an absolute victory, does not complete a lasting, stable revival of Israeli security, and has not ended the war — not in Gaza, where the remains of Hamas continue to try to leverage the hostages to force an IDF withdrawal, and not on any of the other fronts from which Israel is being attacked.
This screen grab from a handout video released by the IDF on October 17, 2024, shows drone footage of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar moments before he was killed a day earlier in Rafah’s Tel Sultan neighborhood in the southern Gaza Strip. (IDF / AFP)
In Gaza, the war has metastasized from conflict between organized military forces on an urban battlefield, above and below ground, where Hamas wrongly believed its home advantage, years of planning, and absolute indifference to the deaths of Gaza’s civilians would defeat the IDF and enable its survival. Now, Hamas is engaged in guerrilla-style warfare, hurting the IDF wherever it can, and maintaining much of its authority in the lower two-thirds of the Strip.
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In the north of Gaza, with the focus on Jabaliya at present, the IDF is in the process of displacing the entire civilian population, moving the remaining 150,000 or so Gazans south as it seeks to eliminate any Hamas presence — monitoring Gazans as they evacuate, and arresting Hamas suspects among them as they go, and gradually turning the area into a kind of closed military zone.
A screenshot of video released by the IDF on October 19, 2024, shows Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar carrying a flatscreen television while escaping into a tunnel with his family the night before the Gaza-ruling terror group’s October 7, 2023, onslaught against Israel.
The goal appears to be to create a dependably safe, Hamas-free northern Gaza, managed by some kind of international mechanism, featuring a non-Palestinian Authority local bureaucracy, with civilians gradually returning, a possible role for private firms in distributing aid, and no prospect of Hamas regaining military or civil governance. Success in the north of the Strip, it is apparently hoped, would enable a gradual replication of that process through the center and south. An offer of safe passage for Hamas out of Gaza — akin to the PLO’s forced relocation from Lebanon to Tunis in 1982 — might enable a deal to secure the release of the hostages.
If that sounds vague and improbable, it’s partly because official Israel isn’t talking publicly about how this might play out, for domestic political and diplomatic reasons. But on the ground in northern Gaza, that mass displacement is happening right now.
Gazans walk with their belongings as they evacuate from Jabaliya in the northern Gaza Strip on October 9, 2024. (Omar Al-Qattaa/AFP)
Hezbollah still potent, but cannot invade
In Lebanon, the targeted IAF strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah in his Beirut bunker on September 27, was, as with Sinwar, an essential component, but not the only such component, of definitive Israeli success.
A screenshot from video footage said to show the body of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah being extracted from the rubble of his destroyed bunker complex in Beirut, September 29, 2024. (X screenshot, used in accordance with clause 27a of the copyright law)
Hezbollah’s leadership has been largely eliminated, thousands of its fighters have been killed and incapacitated, and a significant proportion of its weaponry has been destroyed.
But almost a month later, it is gradually reconstituting its leadership. Its armed forces still number in the tens of thousands. And if, as was being claimed this week, it retains some 30 percent of its rocket and missile capabilities, that would still leave it many times more powerful than most of the world’s armies, and far more potent than Hamas was at the start of this conflict.
Demonstrators hold pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, during a protest vigil in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon on September 28, 2024, a day after he was killed in an IDF strike in Beirut. (Mahmoud Zayyat / AFP)
On Wednesday morning, on the eve of Simhat Torah, a year by the Hebrew calendar since Hamas’s invasion and slaughter, central Israel woke up, just as it did so terribly a year ago, to sirens announcing rocket and missile fire — in what is becoming the new routine of attacks from across the northern border. Barely a day goes by without Hezbollah firing 100 or more rockets and missiles at northern and central Israel.
The terror group continues to intermittently outmaneuver Israel’s astonishing defense systems with its drones — most brazenly by hitting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Caesarea home on Saturday, where an exploding UAV shattered a bedroom window. It has been profoundly shaken by the destruction of its leadership, but it has not been thoroughly cowed or deterred.
Damage caused to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home in Caesarea in a Hezbollah drone attack on October 19, 2024. (Courtesy)
What it was planning to do and can no longer do, however, is carry out a mass invasion of northern Israel. This month’s IDF ground operation is destroying Hezbollah’s infrastructure in a band several kilometers deep along the border. As things stand, the IDF would like to complete that operation within the next few weeks, and potentially enable the return of at least some of the tens of thousands of Israelis who have been forced from their homes in the north since October 8, 2023.
The north is and would still be vulnerable to Hezbollah fire, just like the rest of the country — but not to invasion. The IDF, which has overwhelming military primacy in Lebanon, does not anticipate going after Hezbollah’s entire rocket, missile and drone arsenal — deep, deep in Lebanon, including in Beirut and even beyond — unless the Netanyahu government has other ideas and instructions. Preventing, rather than eliminating, that ongoing Hezbollah danger, as far as the IDF is concerned, will require a diplomatic settlement, under which Israel would insist on freedom of action to tackle any Hezbollah return to the south.
An anti-Iran coalition?
As for the wider regional theater — and the strategic imperative to face down the regime in Iran — government officials are adamant that Israel must and will respond to the October 1 ballistic missile assault that sent most of the country dashing to bomb shelters and safe rooms. They recognize the potential for that Israeli response, in turn, to trigger further potential rounds of escalation.
The government does not want to trigger a broader war with Iran, and emphatically wants to maintain the close military and diplomatic support of the United States. It sees both the need to respond to October 1 and to ensure ongoing American support as essential to restoring Israeli deterrence against the regime.
More broadly, the Biden administration remains convinced that a grander vision is achievable — as in, the deepening of a US-led alliance that sees Israel more deeply integrated into the region, a robust coalition against the regime in Tehran, with the key element of Israel-Saudi normalization. Mossad chief David Barnea, closer to Netanyahu than most of the key figures in Israel’s security establishment, and Ron Dermer, Netanyahu’s leading ministerial confidant, are key Israeli players in this regard.
This handout photo released by the Hostages and Missing Families Forum shows relatives of Israelis held hostage in Gaza by Hamas meeting with visiting US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, October 22, 2024. (Hostages and Missing Families Forum)
For now, the Saudis are keeping their options open. They maintain a degree of self-protecting diplomatic interaction with Iran, know they cannot take on the regime themselves, and wait to see how Israel and the US will fare in that endeavor.
They recognize that Netanyahu will not proclaim a clear readiness to advance toward Palestinian statehood, nor allow a formal role in Gaza for the Palestinian Authority — much of whose leadership eulogized the would-be genocidal Sinwar as a “great national leader.” But with the immense potential benefit of a dramatically enhanced relationship with the US, there may be Israeli diplomatic formulations that Riyadh could choose to portray as at least opening a diplomatic horizon for the Palestinians, thus assuaging its own Shiite minority and enabling an overt, deepened relationship with Israel.
In that context, the Saudis are doubtless hoping for the imminent return to the US presidency of the uber-confident, spare-me-the-details Donald Trump, rather than a cautious first-term Kamala Harris. As indeed, of course, is Netanyahu.
Republican presidential candidate former US president Donald Trump meets with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at his Mar-a-Lago estate, July 26, 2024, in Palm Beach, Florida. (AP/Alex Brandon)
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/AL JAZEERA
Failed rocket launches and secure lines: IDF further implicates Hamas, Al Jazeera’s connections
Cooperation ranged from prohibiting the channel from criticizing the terrorist organization to concealing incidents of failed launches and even establishing a secure communication line.
IDF soldiers approach the building where former Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was hiding before his death in Rafah, Gaza Strip.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
After exposing the involvement of six Al Jazeera journalists in terrorism and connections to terrorist groups, the IDF revealed additional documents indicating close cooperation between Hamas and the Qatari state-owned network, the military said on Thursday.
Cooperation ranged from prohibiting the channel from criticizing the terrorist organization to concealing incidents of failed launches and even establishing a secure communication line between Hamas and Al Jazeera, the IDF stated.
In a recovered 2022 document, Hamas described how it provided Al Jazeera with clear instructions on covering a failed Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) rocket launch in Jabalya, which resulted in the deaths of several civilians.
Instructions given to Al Jazeera by terror groups
The instructions included avoiding the use of the word “massacre” to describe the event, reducing the display of images from the incident, and ensuring that panel members did not criticize Hamas, the IDF reported.
Another document from 2022 reveals the instructions Hamas gave to journalist Tamer Almisshall regarding the coverage of PIJ during Operation “Breaking Dawn” on his program “More Hidden than Revealed.” The instructions were to support the “resistance” in Gaza and to prevent any criticism of the PIJ’s rocket capabilities, in light of the high number of failed launches.
An uncovered document reveals further connections between Hamas, PIJ, to Al Jazeera, the IDF reveals, October 24, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
A 2023 document shows that Hamas decided to establish an “Al Jazeera Phone”—a secure line that would allow the organization to communicate with the channel in a classified manner and during emergencies.
The documents reveal how Hamas directs Al Jazeera’s media coverage to serve its own interests, preventing the public in Gaza and around the world from discovering the truth about its crimes against Gazan civilians.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/LATE THURSDAY
IDF calls on Lebanese civilians near two buildings in southern Beirut to evacuate ahead of airstrikes
The IDF is calling on Lebanese civilians near two buildings in the southern suburb of Beirut, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh, to evacuate immediately ahead of airstrikes.
Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, publishes maps alongside the announcement, which call on civilians to distance themselves at least 500 meters from the sites, which the military says belong to Hezbollah.
#عاجل إلى جميع السكان المتواجدين في منطقة الضاحية الجنوبية وتحديدًا في المباني المحددة في الخرائط المرفقة والمباني المجاورة لها في المناطق التالية: 🔸شويفات العمروسية 🔸حارة حريك
⭕️تتواجدون بالقرب من منشآت ومصالح تابعة لحزب الله حيث سيعمل ضدها جيش الدفاع على المدى الزمني… pic.twitter.com/zHKH6eAznP
A member of Hezbollah’s drone unit was killed in an IDF strike in southern Lebanon earlier today, the military says.
The IDF says it identified the operative collecting a surveillance drone that had returned to Lebanon after being launched at Israel.
A short while later the operative was targeted in an Israeli drone strike.
The military releases footage of the incident.
מוקדם יותר היום, כלי טיס של חיל האוויר תקף וסגר מעגל על מחבל מהיחידה האווירית של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה (127) ששיגר כלי טיס בלתי מאויש לעבר שטח מדינת ישראל<< pic.twitter.com/LDhX5k9mKP
Iran devotes most of its oil and gas revenue to the IRGC
(JerusalemPost)
Iran to direct majority of oil, gas revenue to IRGC, report reveals
42.5% of the remaining funds will support the government’s operational expenses, and 6.5% will be allocated for “special projects,” the report indicated.
Members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attend an IRGC ground forces military drill in the Aras area, East Azerbaijan province, Iran, October 17, 2022.(photo credit: IRGC/WANA/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)
Iran‘s upcoming budget plan reveals that more than half of the revenue from oil and gas exports will be allocated to the nation’s armed forces, according to a report by Iran International on Thursday.
The government is expected to receive about €24 billion from these exports, which constitutes 37.5% of the total revenue generated, the report stated. Of that amount, approximately €12 billion, or 51%, will be directed toward military spending, according to the report.
The Iranian armed forces, officially known as the Islamic Republic of Iran armed forces, encompass the Army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the Law Enforcement Forces (LEF). Meanwhile, 42.5% of the remaining funds will support the government’s operational expenses, and 6.5% will be allocated for “special projects,” the report indicated.
A significant aspect of the budget is an increase in the official euro exchange rate, rising from 310,000 rials this year to 502,000 rials next year, the report highlighted. This change is expected to significantly boost military funding from oil revenue, raising the armed forces’ income to over €12 billion next year—up from €4.3 billion this year and €3 billion the previous year.
In practice, the government will provide oil, priced in euros, to the armed forces, which can then sell it on international markets, the report detailed. With oil priced at €57.5 per barrel, this equates to a daily provision of 583,000 barrels to the military.
An anti-Israel billboard is seen next to the Iranian flag during a celebration following the IRGC attack on Israel, in Tehran, Iran, April 15, 2024. (credit: Majid Asgaripour/WANA/via Reuters)
Data from oil tanker tracking shows that the IRGC ships approximately 85,000 barrels of oil per day to Syria, according to the report. However, the majority of the oil allocated to the armed forces is expected to be sold to China, which receives 95% of Iran’s total oil exports, the report claimed. This year, the military has received over 200,000 barrels daily, with a significant portion going to Chinese markets and the rest to Syria.
In addition to oil revenues, the armed forces benefit from other financial sources within the broader national budget, as highlighted in the report. This year, their total budget is estimated at around $17 billion, including $4.5 billion worth of oil shipments.
Although next year’s budget draft, shared with the media, does not provide details on other military funding, the trend of significant military financing continues, according to the report.
Iran’s dependence on oil and gas revenue
According to the report, Iran is projected to generate €64 billion from oil and gas exports next year. This includes €4.8 billion from gas exports, based on 16 billion cubic meters sold at 30 cents per cubic meter, and €59 billion from oil and petroleum product exports.
Customs data indicated that last year, the country’s total revenue from oil and petroleum exports amounted to approximately $37 billion. In the first half of this year, it has already reached $24 billion, the report noted.
Although the budget does not specify the volume of expected oil exports, it indicates that the government plans to increase daily crude oil production by 350,000 barrels, bringing the total to 3.75 million barrels per day next year, the report said. This increase is aimed entirely at exports, as no new refineries are planned for the coming years.
The National Development Fund (NDF), which is supposed to receive 48% of oil export revenues, will see its share reduced to 20%, with the government borrowing back the remaining 28%—around €17.9 billion, according to the report. This means that 65.5% of the oil and gas revenue will go to the government’s budget, while 14.5% will be allocated to the National Oil and Gas Companies and 20% to the NDF.
The government’s practice of borrowing from the NDF, totaling over $100 billion, has created significant debt that it has been unable to repay, the report added. This continued borrowing threatens the long-term sustainability of the NDF’s assets, which were originally intended for private-sector loans. According to recent statements from the NDF’s director, the fund’s foreign currency reserves are nearly depleted due to this situation.
In addition to oil exports, the government expects to earn €4.5 billion from the domestic sale of petroleum products and gas, the report concluded.
The Ukrainian prosecutor’s office has opened 51,000 cases of desertion through the first nine months of 2024. The number of soldiers abandoning their posts is likely to double last year’s total.
The Times of London reported data from the Ukrainian government showing that “51,000 criminal cases were initiated for desertion and abandonment of a military unit between January and September of this year.”
El Pais previously noted that 45,000 Ukrainians were being prosecuted for desertion from the start of the year through August. Al-Jazeera says the number is at least 30,000 desertions.
At the start of the year, Kiev was estimated to have between 500,000 and 800,000 active-duty soldiers and an additional 300,000 reservists.
The Ukrainians have also sustained casualties fighting to defend from Russian advances and amid Kiev’s Kursk invasion.
Kiev has struggled to fill its ranks with fresh soldiers, leading Ukraine to drop its conscription age from 27 to 25. As Kiev is still facing manpower shortages, American politicians are pushing Ukraine to drop draft age to 18. Responsible Statecraft has reported:
Despite no evidence of victory on the horizon, the Republican senator is urging Ukrainian lawmakers to pass a mobilization bill that would force more Ukrainian citizens to be drafted into the military. Currently, men under 27 are exempted from the draft. Graham has a problem with that.
…Graham told reporters, “I would hope that those eligible to serve in the Ukrainian military would join. I can’t believe it’s at 27. You’re in a fight for your life, so you should be serving — not at 25 or 27.”
“We need more people in the line,” he said.
Ukraine has also resorted to allowing prisoners to leave jail if they join the military.
One Ukrainian who deserted told the Times that prison was a better option than the military because “at least in prison, you know when you will be able to leave.”
It's not just critics who say that US policy in Ukraine is to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
Here's @LindseyGrahamSC saying that as long as the US arms Ukraine, "they will fight to the last person." And four months in, he says, "I like the structural path we're on here." pic.twitter.com/1fntZG7cjQ
The number of Ukrainians that Kiev is prosecuting for desertion has significantly increased throughout the war. In 2022, the number was 9,000, and it had more than doubled to 24,000 last year.
END
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
FBI Makes Announcement About Pentagon LeakerThe Federal Bureau of Investigation confirmed Tuesday morning the law enforcement agency has launched a probe into the Pentagon and who leaked top-secret Israeli strike plans against Iran over the weekend.READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRICS MEETING
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0795 UP 0.0014
USA/ YEN 151.97 DOWN .787 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2976 UP .0061
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3819 DOWN 0.0017 (CDN DOLLAR UP 17 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 22.54 PTS OR 0.63%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 270.53 PTS OR 1.53%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.26%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 261.20 PTS OR 1.22%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 22.54 PTS OR 0.63%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .26%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 38.43 POINTS OR 0.10%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2738.00
silver:$34.10
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 104.06 DOWN 21 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.1181 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1274)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.24 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.945
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 2 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.229% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.505 DOWN 1 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.062 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2734.00
SILVER AT 11;00: 33.86
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 10.74 PTS OR 0.13%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 65.38 OR 0.34%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 5.82 PTS OR 0.08%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 25.40 OR 0.21%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 1.58 OR 0.00%
WTI Oil price 71.76 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 75.29 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 96.90 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 97/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.2645 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.2940 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.282 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.036 UP 2
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0823 UP 0.0043 OR 43 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2972 UP 0.0057 OR 57 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2350 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.948
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.89 UP 0.869 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3856 UP 0.0015 CDN dollar DOWN 15 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.46
Brent OIL: 74.65
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4,208
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 5 BASIS PTS to 4.470%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1 PTS AT 4.074
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.268 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.033 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 103.97 DOWN 36 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.24 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 96.25 DOWN 0 AND 32/100 roubles
GOLD 2,73.50 3:30 PM
SILVER: 33.68 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 140.59 PTS OR 0.33%
NASDAQ UP 165.92 PTS OR 0.84%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 19.16 DOWN .08 PTS OR 0.42%
GLD: $252.80 UP 1./03 OR 0.77%
SLV/ $30.69 DOWN .02 OR 0.065%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:DOWN 22.07 PTS OR .09%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM:
Traders Buy Everything They Sold Yesterday As Rate-Cut Expectations Rebound
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 04:00 PM
After yesterday’s selling in bonds, stocks, gold, and crypto; today saw the reverse as the dollar dipped and everything else (except crude) rallied… as rate-cut expectations increased modestly…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘Trump Trade’ reignited in stocks today, back to its highest this cycle…
Source: Bloomberg
The Dow lagged on the day, down for the 4th straight day. The S&P and Small Caps managed to fight for small gains as Nasdaq outperformed…
Memes and Most Shorted stocks squeezed higher today, putting big pressure on hedgies – which significantly underperformed today…
Source: Bloomberg
It’s been a tough year for hedgies indeed…
Source: Bloomberg
Before we leave equity-land, it would remiss of us not to note the massive 21% surge ($145BN) in TSLA stock today after earnings last night…
which explains why hedgies were proper fucked today
Tesla and Exxon represent the two largest short positions among hedge funds: GS pic.twitter.com/eSCoc0DriB
Treasuries were mid across the curve today with the long-end outperforming (30Y -5bps, 2Y -1bp) with the whole curve still holding above 4.00%…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar index declined today… pause that refreshes…
Source: Bloomberg
Today’s gain in gold (erasing most of yesterday’s loss)…
Source: Bloomberg
…moved it to a new ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) high since January 1980…
Source: Bloomberg
Palladium broke out of its recent range today, now at its highest since Dec 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Silver accelerated further after Russia central bank headlines…
Source: Bloomberg
After yesterday’s dramatic inflows into BTC ETFs – which saw BTC prices fall…
Source: Bloomberg
…Bitcoin rallied back above $68,000 today
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices pumped and dumped today to end slightly red…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, USA sovereign risk is on the rise once again, now at one year highs…
Source: Bloomberg
Is that the ultimate hedge for a ‘sweep’ in the election (either way).
MORNING TRADING/
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
Continuing Jobless Claims Jump To 3 Year Highs
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 08:36 AM
Initial jobless claims tumbled last week from 242k to 227k as the impact of Hurricane Helene starts to fade from the benefits rolls…
Source: Bloomberg
However, Hurricane Milton’s impact on Florida is suddenly very evident…
…as North Carolina claims fall back…
Source: Bloomberg
However, continuing jobless claims rose to 1.897 million Americans – the highest since Nov 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
So, take your pick! Cut rates because of soaring continuing claims… or ‘hold’ as initial claims revert back towards multi-year lows?
END
This data point is important: USA mfg in contraction!
“Firms Are Worried” – US Manufacturing Survey Signals 3rd Straight Month Of Contraction
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 09:54 AM
After yesterday’s mixed bag of ‘soft’ survey data from regional Feds (showing prices re-acclerating once again), we get the preliminary October prints form S&P Globals’ PMIs this morning with expectations mixed.
Both the Manufacturing (47.8 vs 47.3 prior) and Services (55.3 vs 55.2 prior) survey data was better than expected (47.5 and 55.0 respectively) as hard data has improved consistently in the last month…
Source: Bloomberg
While the Manufacturing survey did improve, it remains in contraction territory for the third straight month.
“October saw business activity continue to grow at an encouragingly solid pace, sustaining the economic upturn that has been recorded in the year to date into the fourth quarter. The October flash PMI is consistent with GDP growing at an annualized rate of around 2.5%.
“Demand has also strengthened, as signalled by new order inflows hitting the highest for nearly one-and-a-half years, albeit with both output and sales growth limited to the services economy.
“Sales are being stimulated in part by more competitive pricing, which has in turn helped drive selling price inflation for goods and services down to the lowest since the initial pandemic slump in early 2020. These weaker price pressures are consistent with inflation running below the Fed’s 2% target.
However, it’s not all ‘awesome’…
“Businesses nevertheless remain cautious about hiring, leading to a third month of modest payroll reductions. Firms are worried in particular about uncertainty caused by the Presidential Election.
But perhaps the trend towards a Trump victory is starting to creep into business leaders minds…
“More encouragingly, confidence in the longer, year-ahead, outlook has improved as companies hope that a stabler post-election environment is more conducive to growth. This is especially so in the manufacturing sector, where factories hope that the current soft patch in production and sales will reverse as the uncertainty caused by the political environment passes.”
Of course, its an election month, so we really shouldnt be surprised when the data ‘beats’ expectations.
end
US New Home Sales Jumped In September As Rates Fell, But…
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 10:15 AM
With existing home sales ‘re-slumping’ back to the lowest SAAR levels since 2010, hope for the US housing market remains in the new homes market (where consensus believes that sales will jump 0.6% MoM after last month’s 4.7% plunge).
Hope remains alive apparently as new home sales rose 4.1% MoM. The noisy YoY data is back at +6.3%…
Source: Bloomberg
The total New Home Sales SAAR is 738k – the highest since May 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
The last three months have seen significant downward revisions to the new home sales SAAR…
Source: Bloomberg
The median new home price rose modestly MoM, but remains in a relatively tight range still…
Source: Bloomberg
What will happen to prices now that The Fed has started cutting rates? Spoiler Alert: This rebound in new home sales is over!!!
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, NAR cheerleader Lawrence Yun blames politics for the lack of serious rebound, despite lower mortgage rates:
“Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election.”
We are sure Kamala has a ‘solution’ for those higher prices and lower affordability.
end
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Denny’s Plots 150 Closings As Part Of Its Growth Strategy
Denny’s needs to close about a tenth of its stores before it can fully harness a comprehensive comeback plan that’s yielded encouraging early results, management informed Wall Street during the 71-year-old chain’s investor’s conference Tuesday.
Executives said they’ve tagged about 150 stores whose weak financial performance is sapping the whole system’s vitality. About half those units will be shut by the end of this year, with the rest slated to fire down their grills for good in 2025.
“We believe this is absolutely the right thing to do to make our system stronger,” company CEO Kelli Valade said in opening the daylong meeting with investors.
She spoke after the franchisor reported a 0.1% decrease in same-store sales for the Denny’s brand in the third quarter. Included in the results was an indication that Denny’s franchisees shut 18 units during the period, leaving the 1,590-unit system 53 restaurants smaller than it was at the end of the year-ago quarter.
Valade said the closings were necessary to realize headquarters’ goals of raising Denny’s average annual unit volume to $2.2 million and putting a fresh face on the brand.
She did not reveal how pricing or traffic levels figured into the quarterly results, though she acknowledged that guest counts were down. “Everyone has lost traffic. Everyone,” Valade commented.
She cited research showing sales for all of family dining are down about 20%, the steepest decline for any major industry segment.
The presentation from management also touched on how many of the chains in family dining, one of the restaurant business’ oldest sectors, are similarly shutting stores.
“We’ve contracted most since Covid, that’s a fact,” Valade said.
Steve Dunn, Denny’s chief development officer, said the home office had reviewed every domestic unit of the chain to assess its financial strength. It found that the fifth of the system with the weakest performance was hurting the rest of the system because the stores were often old and located in markets whose consumer dynamics had changed. The decision was made, he said, to prune those stores for the benefit of the survivors.
Valade said the systemwide evaluation also revealed the brand’s “Achilles heel,” a significant variation in the look of units from market to market.
Dunn indicated the inconsistency and aged look of some stores will be addressed in a comprehensive renovation program called Diner 2.0. It includes several financial incentives for franchisees to make the needed investments, including a grant of $100,000 to operators who opt to update. In exchange for the cash, participants agree to pay what management characterized as a slightly higher royalty fee, though it did not specify how much of an increase there would be.
In addition, management has worked with a third party to create a $25 million loan pool to fund the updates.
Restaurants given a facelift tend to see a $400,000 uplift in sales, according to Dunn. Experience has shown that the rejuvenated stores can expect a sales boost of 6.4% and a traffic upswing of 6.5%.
A signature Denny’s feature that could be dropped from those stores is a requirement that they remain open around the clock. Valade revealed that about 25% of the system has opted not to operate through the night and suggested the chain will not aim for its pre-pandemic goal of every unit being open 24/7.
Executives of the company reviewed their previously disclosed plan for reinvigorating Denny’s operations and sharpening the brand’s appeal to new and lapsed customers. That strategy pivots on value.
Valade revealed that some customers are bringing down their tabs in part by ordering Denny’s kids meals more regularly.
Other executives stressed that virtual concepts will remain a key part of the strategy. Denny’s currently boasts three digital brands: Burger Den, the Meltdown and its newest venture, Banda Burritos, which is now available featured in 1,000 Denny’s units. The three have generated $77 million in sales to date, according to Patty Trevino, the diner chain’s new chief brand officer.
She revealed that Banda Burritos intends to steal a trick from its parent company’s playbook. The venture is currently eying the rollout of a product called the Grand Slam Burrito, a clear reference to Denny’s signature breakfast platter.
Trevino stressed that Denny’s will continue to evolve its menu, not only through additions but by upgrading what’s already on the bill of fare. She noted, for instance, that the company has spent $8 million to improve its bacon.
Keke’s gets some attention
Management focused more on Denny’s young sister brand, Keke’s Breakfast Café, than executives typically have during their quarterly calls with financial analysts.
Same-store sales for the still-regional operation slid 1% during the third quarter, said concept President Dave Schmidt.
He revealed that the concept has been and will continue to be tweaked in preparation for rapid expansion. Development agreements have been signed for 140 stores, off the current base of 61 units. Much of that commitment has come from Denny’s franchisees, Schmidt indicated.
END
20% Of Households Making Over $150,000 Live Paycheck-To-Paycheck
The term ‘living paycheck to paycheck’ is a fairly frequently heard expression but can be somewhat nebulous and is not always clearly defined. Broadly, one can imagine it refers to individuals or households that regularly spend nearly all of their income, leaving little to nothing left over for savings.
By that widely used definition, over 40 percent of respondents agreed or somewhat agreed to living PTP.
BofA restricted that definition as shown in the lead chart.
BofA refines PTP as “households where necessity spending is more than 95% of their household income, leaving them relatively little left over for ‘nice to have’ discretionary spending or saving.”
Even by that definition, which I endorse, the percentage of PTP households is staggering.
More surprising is that the proportion of households appearing to live paycheck to paycheck falls only slowly as incomes rise. Around 20% of households with incomes above $150K also appear to be living paycheck to paycheck. How can this be? One reason is that higher-income households may have bought larger, more expensive, homes and consequently have bigger mortgages. And often along with bigger homes come bigger insurance costs, property taxes and utility bills. It is also possible that as household incomes rise, some households may have more varied sources of income that are hard to capture – such as cash from sales of equities paid into brokerage accounts.
Generational Paycheck to Paycheck
That chart struck me as odd. But perhaps not. Zoomers and Younger millennials are priced out of a home and forced to rent.
Then again, anyone with a mortgage should have been able to refinance at 3 percent or lower, putting extra money in their pockets every month.
How Old Are the Youngest Boomers?
AI Response: As of June 2024, the youngest baby boomers are 60–69 years old. The baby boomer generation is defined as people born between 1946 and 1964.
Some experts have given the youngest baby boomers, born between 1954 and 1964, a new name, “Generation Jones”, because they are so different from older boomers.
Has anyone heard the name “Generation Jones?”
Regardless, boomers are at retirement age. The kids are gone. So why are boomers living PTP?
One possible answer that BofA did not explore is Boomers have many assets and are prepared for the future. Besides, you can’t take it with you.
Other possible answers, such as being totally unprepared for retirement, are much more troubling.
Which is it? I suspect both reasons are in play, and that leads to the high PTP percentage shown.
Bank of America aggregated deposit data suggests that fewer households are moving between cities. In the second quarter of 2024, moves across cities fell 4% year-over-year (YoY) after a 15% YoY decrease this time last year. Those that are moving, however, are skewing towards Gen Z and lower-income households, likely as more households move out of necessity as opposed to choice.
Some households are likely deferring moves due to increased “hidden” costs of homeownership (e.g., insurance, property taxes). Bank of America aggregated payments data suggests these costs are up significantly YoY, especially in the Sun Belt. And a study by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that this area is affected by another “hidden” cost: climate change.
Gen Z and lower-income movers are likely searching for affordability, particularly in the rental market. We find those metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with relatively more affordable rents are seeing the fastest population growth in Q2 2024.
The fewer overall movers and the skew to younger/lower income movers is depressing consumer spending on moving-centric categories such as furniture. But if moving rebounds, we could see a tailwind to these areas of spending.
Housing is a big factor in PTP. Insurance has soared and so have property taxes except where capped.
The home ownership rate is only 35 percent for 25–30-year-olds, compared to 66 percent across all ages according to the Census Bureau.
Prior to 2000, home prices, Owners’ Equivalent Rent (OER), and the Case Shiller national home price index all moved in sync.
This is important because home prices directly used to be in the CPI. Now they aren’t. Only rent is. Yet, OER is the single largest CPI component with a hefty weight of 24.05% of the entire index.
The BLS explains this away by calling homes a capital expense not a consumer expense.
However, that explanation ignores easily observed and measurable inflation. And it’s inflation, not alleged consumer inflation, that is important.
BIS Study on CPI Deflation
Note that a BIS Study finds that routine consumer price deflation is not damaging in the least.
Specifically, the BIS concludes “Deflation may actually boost output. Lower prices increase real incomes and wealth. And they may also make export goods more competitive!”
Worst of all, in their attempts to fight routine consumer price deflation, central bankers, led by the Fed, create very destructive asset bubbles that eventually collapse, setting off what they should fear – asset bubble deflations.
A $150,000 House in 1988 Now Costs $707,500 Thank You Fed
This is a mess entirely of the Fed’s making. And it’s what happens when the Fed, and economists in general do not count home prices as inflation.
Home prices are not directly in the CPI or PCE. The latter is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
Economists consider home prices a capital expense not a consumer expense. The problem is simple: Inflation is not just a consumer price concern!
The Fed ignored obvious inflation in the Great Recession and did so again in the Covid recession.
Dual-State Economy
And so here we are. The Fed is directly responsible for a dual-state economy of the haves vs the have-nots.
The haves are the asset holders. They have largely benefitted from massive asset bubble inflation. The have-nots are those who want to buy a home but are priced out due to inflation.
The Fed created this setup via QE and mortgage security purchases driving interest rates to zero and mortgage rates below 3 percent.
Existing homeowners refinanced putting extra money in their pocket every month.
The have-nots are trapped renting, while most of the haves are trapped in their homes unwilling to trade their 3 percent mortgage for a 6.85 percent mortgage.
Meanwhile, the cost of insurance, maintenance, and property taxes on that home have jumped so much that 20 percent of people making over $150,000 a year are living paycheck to paycheck.
End the Fed
I believe I have made the case to end the Fed. Rather, the Fed made the case against itself.
This idea was a discussion focus on this blog and the Mises Institute in a series of recent posts.
A fast-moving investigation into a deadly E. coli outbreak linked to the McDonald’s Quarter Pounder has left one person dead and dozens hospitalized. The probe prompted Taylor Farms to recall onion batches produced at its Colorado factory, which is suspected to be the source of the contamination.
Taylor Farms, the supplier of onions to the McDonald’s locations involved in the multistate health investigation, announced that it has not yet detected E. coli in its products. However, Bloomberg noted that the commercial farm recalled the onions “out of an abundance of caution.”
Meanwhile, another big customer of Taylor Farms, US Foods, the largest supplier of food to food service operations in the country, issued a recall notification for Taylor Farms and Cross Valley Farms’ onion, urging restaurants nationwide that it supplies produce: “DESTROY THE PRODUCT.”
The US Foods notice shows customers the affected onion products in various forms that must be destroyed.
The recall comes one day after the CDC investigated a deadly E. coli outbreak caused by McDonald’s Quarter Pound hamburgers with raw onions. A CDC post on X said 49 people across 10 states have been sickened, and one person has died.
E. COLI OUTBREAK: CDC is investigating 49 illnesses in 10 states linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder hamburgers. If you ate a Quarter Pounder hamburger from McDonald’s and have severe symptoms of E. coli, contact your healthcare provider. https://t.co/g87itkupCQpic.twitter.com/gHzUKCnTi9
Shares of MCD tumbled as much as 10% on the news on Tuesday- with shares Thursday morning still at the lows.
The origin of the E. coli outbreak is still unclear. However, there is growing concern over food security risks as mega-corporations continue sourcing migrants for critical roles within the nation’s food supply chain. This could heighten the risk of contamination and disease spread. A serious conversation on this alarming issue is urgently needed on Capitol Hill.
end
Attention Cash-Strapped Americans: Goldman Reaffirms Walmart Offers Best Grocery Deals
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 06:55 AM
Goldman analysts reveal that Walmart continues to lead retailers in offering consumers the most competitive grocery prices, while Whole Foods remains the most expensive option. The report also includes updates on holiday meal promotions at retailers and consumer insights from data firm HundredX.
The analysts were led by Leah Jordan and Kate McShane, who reviewed 38 SKUs in dairy, frozen goods, dry grocery, HPC, and produce categories at major retailers, including Kroger, Albertsons (under its banner Randalls), Walmart, Sprouts Farmers Market, Whole Foods, and Dollar General.
They found Walmart had the lowest prices:
As shown in Exhibit 1, WMT had the lowest prices at -14.0% vs. the group average (widened from -12.2% last month), followed by DG at -4.5% (vs -7.8% last month). WFM had the highest prices in the group at +10.1%, followed by ACI at +9.3%. KR had the highest SKU availability for the products surveyed at 37, followed by WMT and ACI at 36.
… and the lowest prices across all categories:
Looking by category (Exhibit 2), WMT had the lowest prices in dairy products (-18.1%), frozen foods (-14.0%), dry grocery (-11.7%), and produce (-12.2%), while DG had the lowest prices in HPC (-14.8%). On the other hand, WFM had the highest prices in dairy products (+11.3%) and frozen foods (+19.0%), while ACI had the highest prices in dry grocery (+9.1%), HPC (+6.1%), and produce (+10.8%).
Latest holiday meal deal promotions by retailers…
Analysts noted, “Consumer survey data from HundredX revealed the strongest net purchasing intent for large regional grocers, clubs, hard discounters, and specialty grocers across our selection of food retailers, while dollar stores and conventional grocers tracked on the lower end.”
In a separate but recent note, UBS analyst Michael Lasser said Dollar General and Dollar Tree faced “existential uncertainties” as cash-strapped consumers dialed back spending and shifted to Walmart.
In other words, struggling consumers in an era of failed Bidenomics are just gravitating to the deals.
… yet another indication that the standard of living in the West has imploded amid reckless Bidenomics spending, sparking the inflation storm.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
KING REPORT
The King Report October 24 2024 Issue 7355
Independent View of the News
Massive lithium deposit found across southeastern US could end reliance on imports – between 5 million and 19 million tons of lithium … spans six states from Florida’s Gulf Coast, through parts of Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi, and stretching across Texas…https://t.co/zzhaAr0ieF
Zelenskyy outlines initial step toward peace talks with Russia A mutual cessation of strikes on energy infrastructure could represent the first step toward ending the active phase of the Russian-Ukrainian war, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Specifically, the Ukrainian president stated that when it comes to energy and freedom of navigation, achieving results in these areas would signal that Russia might be willing to end the war… https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/zelenskyy-outlines-initial-step-toward-peace-1729638407.html
It appears that Zelensky is preparing for a Trump presidency.
@mtmalinen: Core deposits, a main source of funding for regional U.S. banks continued their decline in Q2. Trending deposit outflows have a tendency to turn into bank crushing deposit runs if there’s a shock. This is what happened to SVB and Signature bank in mid-March 2023. https://x.com/mtmalinen/status/1849109817450692846
During morning NYSE trading, stocks and commodities declined sharply; bonds fell modestly. Fangs got hammered; near 12:50 ET: Nvidia -3.29%, Apple -2.74%, and Broadcom -2.6%.
Apple tumbled on a report that iPhone 16 orders were cut by about 10 million units in Q4 through the first half of 2025. Nvidia CEO Huang said the company has fixed the design flaw in its latest AI chips that created production and shipping delays.
US 20-year bond auction ($13B): 4.59% vs. 4.574% WI, bid-to-cover 2.59. USZs fell from -7/32 to -17/32 after the auction results appeared. The 10-year hit 4.25%.
We warned in the past few missives that stocks acted like they were tired. Yesterday, a critical mass of traders and operators came to that conclusion.
ESZs vacillated between moderate and small losses from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower after 5 ET. After a modest decline, ESZs went flat until they broke down again near 8:35 ET. After falling to 5858.25 at 10:23 ET, traders bought for the 2nd-hour rebound. ESZs jumped to 5874.25 at 10:44 ET.
But serious and aggressive sellers then entered the arena. ESZs sank to a daily low of 5801.00 at 14:18 ET. Aggressive buying for the afternoon rally took ESZs to 5839.25 at 15:50 ET. ESZs then went flat.
Positive aspects of previous session An afternoon rally for stocks appeared.
Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined sharply; Fangs cratered; bonds declined moderately. MCD tumbled as much as 7.6%.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How low will the stock retreat go?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5798.22 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5834.85; 5762.41
Fed Board fired four staffers, disciplined five others for sexual harassment, bombshell report revealshttps://trib.al/WMh9Z2m
JPMorgan chief Dimon would consider a role in Harris administration, NYT reports (last week it was with DJT!) https://t.co/kAP6xA9Ow3
@ShabbosK: Ariane Tabatabai is the Pentagon official suspected of leaking highly classified Israeli intel. As a Fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School, she used her Harvard email to *communicate directly with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps* a U.S. designated terrorist group. https://t.co/KVVQFzPCi5
After the close, Tesla reported Q3 EPS of .72, .60 expected; revenue of $25.18B, $25.43B expected. TSLA said it expects slight growth for vehicle deliveries in 2024. TSLA soared to 228.35 in after-hour trading (213.65 close, -4.32). Obviously, the omniscient Street expected poor results.
IBM Q3 Operating EPS 2.30, 2.23 expected and a .36 loss from continuing operations, -.34 expected; Rev $14.97B, $15.05B exp.; IBM tumbled as much as 7.7% in after-hour trading.
Today – Yesterday’s missive: Equities declined sharply on Monday and the Turnaround Tuesday was lame. Mr. Bond is impairing the stock market; plus, stocks look very tired.
With everything declining on Wednesday, there could be another factor at play. Commodities get smashed and the dollar soaring suggests that traders are recalibrating their Fed rate cut forecasts.
ESZs +6.50; NQZs are +81.00 (on Tesla); and USZs are +3/32 at 20:35 ET. Due to Tesla, US stocks look to rally early. Thereafter, Mr. Bond could call the direction of stocks. It feels like it’s time for a bounce.
Expected econ data and events: Sept Chicago Fed National Activity Index 0.50; Initial Jobless Claims 242k, Continuing Claims 1.875m; Oct S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 47.5, Services PMI 55, Composite PMI 53.8; Sept New Home Sales 720k; Oct KC Fed Mfg. Activity -7; Cleveland Fed Pres Hammack 8:45 ET
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5670; 100-day MA: 5561; 150-day MA: 5434; 200-day MA: 5323 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,728; 100-day MA: 40,621; 150-day MA: 40,034; 200-day MA: 39,648 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5797.41 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5512.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5788.27 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5826.19 triggers a buy signal
Early vote totals indicate Trump is ‘going to be president on Election Day,’ veteran political journalist (Ex-ABC Political Director Mark Halperin) sayshttps://trib.al/yfbprbG
On Monday, reports circulated that a devastating story about Trump that would end his candidacy would soon appear. Mark Halperin noted this on Tuesday morning in the above story.
The Atlantic: Trump: ‘I Need the Kind of Generals That Hitler Had’ by Jeffrey Goldberg, Editor Trump became angry. “It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a f***ing Mexican!” He turned to his chief of staff, Mark Meadows, and issued an order: “Don’t pay it!”… Kelly—a retired Marine general… said in an interview for the CNN reporter Jim Sciutto’s book, The Return of Great Powers, that Trump praised aspects of Hitler’s leadership. “He said, ‘Well, but Hitler did some good things,’” Kelly recalled. “I said, ‘Well, what?’ And he said, ‘Well, (Hitler) rebuilt the economy.’… https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-military-generals-hitler/680327/
Vanessa Guillen’s sister and family attorney slam Atlantic editor for claiming Trump dissed murdered Army servicewoman: ‘He outright LIED’ – The piece, written by the magazine’s editor-in-chief Jeffrey Goldberg, claims Trump fumed about a $60,000 bill he received from Guillen’s family for her funeral during a December 2020 Oval Office meeting – allegedly telling aides that “It doesn’t cost 60,000 bucks to bury a f—king Mexican.”.. Mayra Guillen, Vanessa’s sister, slammed the Atlantic report as “hurtful & disrespectful,” and indicated that the former president treated her family with “respect” in the aftermath of sister’s brutal killing…“President Donald Trump did nothing but show respect to my family & Vanessa,” she added. “In fact, I voted for President Trump today.”… https://t.co/EFoBEf9WgC
@ggreenwald: There is no journalist at any senior level of US corporate media who lies more frequently, casually, and shamelessly than @JeffreyGoldberg. He’s been doing it non-stop for 20 years. And @TheAtlantic, which he edits, is owned by Kamala mega-donor Laurene Powell Jobs: @greg_price11: Much like Jeffrey Goldberg’s “suckers and losers” story from 2020, every single person that was there is now refuting his latest anonymously sourced bs.
@RealTheoWold: I was at President Trump’s meeting with the Guillén family because I assisted with translation that day… Trump was genuinely concerned about Vanessa Guillén and appalled by the tragedy the Guillén Family were enduring. @mguilen_ was poised and confident in advocating for her sister then and she’s right again today: The Atlantic hit piece is a lie. For example, President Trump had zero interest in the cameras. He met with the Guillén family privately for twenty minutes and offered the press gaggle solely if it would assist them in honoring Army Specialist Guillén and raising awareness about her case. He even told them that day that the press are vipers. Boy was President Trump right.
The NYT on Tuesday night: As Election Nears, Kelly Warns Trump Would Rule Like a Dictator Confirming a statement he gave to CNN last year, Mr. Kelly said that on multiple occasions Mr. Trump told him that those Americans wounded, captured or killed in action were “losers and suckers.”… https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-trump-fitness-character.html
@mercedesschlapp: I worked for John Kelly and don’t believe him. His last ditch effort to stop Donald Trump is desperate. This is a personal vendetta from a staffer who failed at his job and believed as a chief of staff that he should have been the ultimate decisionmaker…
The NYT and The Atlantic (ex-Guillen stuff) stories are mostly old Trump stories. Americans have heard these yarns for years. To the chagrin of people that fear a DJT win, Americans are dismissing them. People that have lied about Trump and demeaned him for years are in panic and upset that their latest barbs are not believed and are quickly discarded by most Americans. (See “Boy that called ‘wolf’”)
@CynicalPublius: Just FYI, that “Trump wants Hitler’s generals” hoax has been floating around since 2022. See below screenshots from an August 8, 2022, New Yorker article. They are so desperate that they can’t come up with new hoaxes, they have to recycle the old ones and pretend they are new. https://x.com/CynicalPublius/status/1849143560722919907
@JesseKellyDC: The Harris campaign has a billion dollars, an army of consultants, months to work on a plan, and the October surprise was the same “Trump is Hitler!” drivel we’ve been hearing since he came down the escalator in 2015.
@its_The_Dr: Former FBI Director James Comey says that former President Trump “is coming” for the FBI and the Department of Justice. (The FBI desperately needs major cleansing and reform!)
@WesternLensman: Fmr CIA Director, Russiagate Conspirator and Hunter Laptop Hoaxer John Brennan wants Americans to know how disgusted he is that they are not buying the latest Trump hoax: “I find it absurd and appalling that so many Americans are willing to just dismiss these comments.” Chastising Americans for not buy the millionth “Trump loves Hitler” hoax on the eve of an election is a hell of a strategy. Panic. (People that have a good reason for fear a DJT win are surfacing!) https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1849111816481161634
How did the US military get so woke and so political? Barack Hussein Obama
Obama’s Military Coup Purges 197 Officers in Five Years 10/29/2013 What the president calls “my military” isbeingcleansed of any officer suspected of disloyalty to or disagreement with the administration on matters of policy or force structure, leaving the compliant and fearful… Nine senior commanding generals have been fired by the Obama administration this year, leading to speculation by active and retired members of the military that a purge of its commanders is under way… He’s intentionally weakening and gutting our military, Pentagon and reducing us as a superpower, and anyone in the ranks who disagrees or speaks out is being purged.”… get rid of people that don’t agree with them or do not toe the party line… https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/197-military-officers-purged-by-obama/
@sunnyright: Kamala called a press conference at a federal facility to attack her opponent as a fascist, & then ignored a question about the current president calling for Kamala’s opponent to be imprisoned.
@MZHemingway: Very terrifying language laying the groundwork for more left-wing violence coming from Kamala Harris on the grounds of the Naval Observatory right now. She now ramps up the assassination prep — calling the man who has already survived two assassination attempts a “fascist.”
@seanmdav: Harris and Democrats know they’re going to lose, and they are now setting the stage for violence when Trump wins. If they can’t run the country, they will happily burn it to the ground.
@EzraACohen: Classic DC swamp playbook. Plant a fake story with a captured journalist/media outlet, then site the fake story in a political attack. Similar to the fabricated Steele dossier story.
@JackPosobiec: She’s going all in. The Hitler Card is their desperation play. They have nothing left.
@nicksortor: Karine Jean-Pierre just stated that Joe Biden believes Trump is a “fascist” and a “dictator.” This comes just hours after Kamala Harris ONCE AGAIN compared Trump to Adolf Hitler THEY WANT HIM DEÂD. This is a call to action by the White House, and it’s sick. These people are truly evil. https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1849156315764883467
@EricLDaugh: Trump campaign responds to Kamala Harris’ presser where she said Trump “invoked Hitler.” “Kamala Harris is a stone-cold loser who is increasingly desperate because she is flailing, and her campaign is in shambles. Kamala’s dangerous rhetoric is directly to blame for the multiple assassination attempts against President Trump and she continues to stoke the flames of violence all in the name of politics.” “She is despicable, and her grotesque behavior proves she is wholly unfit for office.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1849156075292877116
@RobertKennedyJr: This is the kind of inflammatory poison that divides our nation and inspires assassins. It’s particularly ironic since Biden/Harris have just pushed through DoD Directive 5240.01 giving the Pentagon power — for the first time in history — to use lethal force to kill Americans on U.S. soil who protest government policies. If you want to understand a politician, the words from her mouth have little relevance. Look at her feet.
@elonmusk on Sunday: With their relentless hit pieces, legacy mainstream media are actively encouraging the assassination of @realDonaldTrump and now me
Biden’s lock up Trump gaffe totally undermined the contrived ‘October Surprise’ ploy to label Trump a ‘fascist’ and a ‘Hitler’that would imprison his political opponents.
@charliekirk11: You are about to see insanely desperate stuff from Democrats. Expect fake AI generated crap about Trump coming soon. Stay focused AND VOTE!
The arrogance and megalomania of Kelly, Comey, and Brennan is breathtaking. Because the MSM and DC vermin revere them, they stupidly believe average Americans do the same!
@TheBabylonBee: Democrats Explain Trump Was Going to Be Hitler During His First Term, But He Forgot
NBC’s Hallie Jackson accuses Kamala Harris of dodging question on taxpayer-funded transgender surgerieshttps://trib.al/uraRIGC
@StephenM: It’s official. Kamala’s “I’ll keep you posted” means Liz Cheney would be her defense secretary (with Dick Cheney behind the curtain). Which means: she’ll draft your sons to invade the Middle East, and many other regions, and it will be World War III. https://twitter.com/StephenM/status/1848907071644651928?s=02
@_ROB_29: Crowd at Kamala’s event in Detroit started chanting Trumps name and she lost it! Kamala: “If you want Donald Trump to win, say that, otherwise I’m speaking!” CROWD: YEAH!! TRUMP!!https://t.co/0JDUEykHAi (Harris starts with her dopey smile but ends with the mean face. PS – Her patented “I’m speaking now” has become trite and useless. In fact, it’s self-mocking now.)
@ShelbyTalcott: Kamala Harris’ campaign kicked out a prominent Muslim Democrat from her rally in Michigan on Monday, per the Detroit Metro Times. The campaign later said in a statement that it “regrets this action” and that “he is welcome at future events.” https://t.co/DEv98KTDZF
Fox’s @BillMelugin: Trump in NC on why he thinks Harris will struggle with Arab voters in Michigan. “Why would an Arab want to vote for someone who has Liz Cheney as her hero?”.
‘I love you’: Longtime Harris ally has been friends with CCP group’s top exec for over a decade https://t.co/ddcg31Ertg
@charliekirk11: Philadelphia black men were “deeply offended” by Barack Obama telling them they better vote for Kamala: “It felt like ‘you N-words better get in line and do what we say.’ Him as the czar of the Democrat Party coming down to say ‘go get these N-words in line.’ The general tone of it was disgusting. It was abhorrent…“https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1849108559369318420
@DanODonnellShow: The Trump campaign is making a major ad buy on the two biggest R&B and hip hop radio stations in Philadelphia, indicating a big push for black voters in the critical swing state.
Trump trashes Obama as a ‘jerk’ who ‘divides this country’ amid pro-Harris campaign appearances (BHO is campaigning for Harris like his life depends on her.) https://t.co/CPSrdReztF
Obama’s recurring ploy was to issue divisive rhetoric and then proclaim that he has ascended about the division and hate – and the adoring MSM swallowed the utter BS.
@DC_Draino: The McDonald’s where Trump served French fries in PA has now hired armed guards to protect employees who are being threatened by angry Democrats. These people are the true threats to democracy.
@realpeteyb123: Laurene Powell Jobs owns the Atlantic don’t forget. This is her with Maxwell. They are all Epstein people…. They ran the story because they are told to. Nobody cares about there stories, and Trump is going to take them out… https://x.com/realpeteyb123/status/1849171920324833742
@Peoples_Pundit: The least serious part of Kamala Harris’ press conference is when she pretends to defend the honor of the 6 million Jews killed by Hitler. This is a candidate whose party is so antisemitic she could not nominate a Jew as vice president because it’s not politically viable.
After Team Obama-Harris’s lame October Surprise of reissuing Gen. Kelly remarks that witnesses ‘in the room’ debunked, reporters and pundits said a bigger story being shopped would end Trump’s campaign.
Dem strategist: @keithedwards: I have been told that Trump groped a minor at one of his donor dinners — and that there’s video.
@EricLDaugh: So, there it is. The “big story” is nonexistent video of Trump doing something inappropriate to a minor. These people are disgusting. No unity if he wins. Not going to lie. I am worried about Trump right now. Something really bad happened the last time his odds of winning got this high. And the Hitler rhetoric.
Sordid allegations about Tim Walz have circulated for almost two months! What about Hunter’s PC video & pics? What about Ashley Biden’s salacious diary? What about Bill Clinton?
A video from 1992, which the MSM highlighted in 2016, is the probable impetus for the DJT rumor.
Trump makes inappropriate remarks about young girl – video Oct 13, 2016 Donald Trump can be heard making inappropriate remarks to a young girl in a video from a 1992 Entertainment Tonight Christmas special, given to CBS News. The holiday show was filmed at Trump Tower and includes a group of young girls. Trump asks one if she is going up the escalator. When she tells him she is, he says: ‘I am going to be dating her in 10 years’… https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/video/2016/oct/13/trump-makes-inappropriate-remarks-about-10-year-old-girl-video
The Big Story about Trump finally appeared last night!
Donald Trump groped me in what felt like a ‘twisted game’ with Jeffrey Epstein, former model alleges – Stacey Williams says the ex-president, whose spokesperson denied the allegations, touched her in an unwanted sexual way in 1993, after Epstein introduced them… Karoline Leavitt, the press secretary for Donald Trump’s campaign, provided a statement denying the allegations, which said in part: “These accusations, made by a former activist for Barack Obama and announced on a Harris campaign call two weeks before the election, are unequivocally false. It’s obvious this fake story was contrived by the Harris campaign.”… She and Epstein parted ways soon after. Williams said she never had any knowledge of his pattern of sexual abuse, which would later become known… https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/23/donald-trump-accuser-stacey-williams-jeffrey-epstein
@JackPosobiec: The new Trump allegation was made in a paid Harris campaign zoom call.Completely planted. Axios, Bloomberg, CBS and CNN allies have said they were approached about ‘the story’ three weeks ago and they all passed, per WH official. (Because is occurred 31 years ago?) Yesterday, I was told that the accuser from 30 years ago would be coming out on CNN. They passed, and instead, the Harris campaign put it out themselves.
@BowTiedRanger: Trump is overdue for another fake MeToo “victim” coming forward. Guarantee one’s coming soon. 6:08 PM · Oct 22, 2024
@BrentScher: The allegation against Trump, about something that happened 31(!) years ago, was first revealed during a pro-Kamala Harris event held by a campaign group that is putting out anti-Trump ads in the NYT.
@stclairashley: This former Obama activist waited 31 years…comes forward on a Kamala campaign call two weeks before an election to say that Trump was besties with Epstein (who she dated) and groped her
On Wednesday night, an October Surprise against Kamala Harris circulated.
@EricLDaugh: I’ve just been pitched a story. If true, this would have severe ramifications for the Harris campaign. My oh my… it would likely, dare I say, end her campaign. That’s what I hear, at least.
Former Congressman George Santos claims that a devastating new story about Kamala Harris set to drop today will cause prominent Democrats to distance themselves from her campaign.
Santos made the claim in a video clip posted to X that has received over 2.5 million views.
“Gotta tell you something, it’s so crazy, I just off the phone with a source and they’re telling me that tomorrow the Kamala Harris ship sinks,” said Santos.
“You’re gonna see all the rats jumping off – the story that’s gonna break tomorrow is so damning and so so bad that Democrats are going to distance themselves from her like something you’ve never seen before and essentially you might even see some asking for people to vote for Trump,” he added.
Breaking! It’s all over for VP Kamla Harris tomorrow!
Democrats are going to be wishing they never dumped Joe!
Trump supporters will be treating the issue with caution given that there have been other supposedly ‘devastating’ stories about the Kamala and her running mate Tim Walz in recent weeks that turned out to be nothingburgers.
The fact that Santos was expelled from Congress last year following an investigation by the House Ethics Committee and a federal indictment will undoubtedly be used by Democrats to dismiss the credibility of the story.
Santos also pleaded guilty to wire fraud and identify theft in August of this year.
Suffice to say, he’s not exactly the best source, but it will be interesting to see what the story turns out to be nonetheless.
Meanwhile, journalist Eric Daugherty also says he has been pitched a story that would “end her campaign.”
👀👀
I've just been pitched a story.
If true, this would have severe ramifications for the Harris campaign.
My oh my… it would likely, dare I say, end her campaign.
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‘Word Salad City’: Harris Town Hall In Philly Goes As Bad As You’d Expect
Thursday, Oct 24, 2024 – 10:45 AM
Kamala Harris’ completed another descending spin around her doom loop on Wednesday night:Lagging Trump in battleground states and therefore under pressure to increase her interactions with voters, she participated in a prime-time town hall that only further exposed her as one of the most superficial politicians of our time…with more poll damage sure to follow.
CNN's Anderson Cooper grills Kamala Harris for now supporting giving money to build the border wall after she repeatedly attacked Trump for wanting to build a wall
Harris struggles significantly here and now calls the border wall "a good idea" pic.twitter.com/wshe6f4m1a
The town hall was hosted by CNN and took place in Delaware County. Along with Chester, Bucks and Montgomery, it’s one of four Philadelphia “collar counties” that have traditionally played an outsize role in determining who wins Pennsylvania’s electoral votes. .
You know things went bad when even the New York Times raked Harris over the coalsfor being evasive, saying: “Voters asked direct question. Harris gave circular answers.” After the event, CNN’s Dana Bash said, “What I’m hearing from people who I’ve been talking to … if her goal was to close the deal, they’re not sure she did that.” Seasoned Democratic operative David Alexrod called out Harris’ signature flaw: “The things that would concern me is when she doesn’t want to answer a question, her habit is to kind of go to Word Salad City.”
Harris’ worst sequence of the night came when host Anderson Cooper called out her flip-floppy hypocrisy on the issue of border security. Noting that Harris now supports a bill that would allocate $650 million toward a border wall, Cooper said, “Under Donald Trump, you criticized the wall more than 50 times. You called it stupid, useless and a ‘medieval vanity project.’ Is a border wall stupid?”
Watch Harris’ cackling evasion, and note how the audience is silent as she tries to get it to laugh with her…
Kamala Harris tries to stir up a lethargic CNN town hall by saying, “Let's not be afraid of having a little bit of joy” with all the charisma of Julie Hagerty. pic.twitter.com/h8Iq1DvmbD
Kamala Harris tries to stir up a lethargic CNN town hall by saying, “Let's not be afraid of having a little bit of joy” with all the charisma of Julie Hagerty. pic.twitter.com/h8Iq1DvmbD
By this point, even Cooper had to wonder why he was even bothering to ask questions, given Harris’ refusal to answer them in any kind of straightforward way:
Kamala Reaffirms Her Status as "Worst VP in History." Gives Cringeworthy Performance during CNN Town Hall.
Kamala bombed during her CNN Town Hall. It was an embarrassment of epic proportions. Listen to her answer here about "a mistake and lesson learned." It might be the worst… pic.twitter.com/UdzlRRcWG1
After it was all over, Jake Tapper threw a flag on Harris’ tendency to talk about Donald Trump rather than answering the audience’s questions, while Dana Bash said her Democratic Party contacts were unimpressed:
Kamala’s CNN Town Hall was an unmitigated disaster.
Even CNN anchor Jake Tapper admits that Kamala failed to answer any questions and directed everything towards hating Trump.
And anchor Dana Bash admits Kamala’s performance did not “close the deal”.
Ahead of the event, CNN said it would feature questions from “undecided and persuadable voters.” Many viewers expressed great doubt that this particular questioner — a female political science professor from ultra-liberal Swarthmore College who’s apparently made dozens of contributions to the Democratic PAC ActBlue — hasn’t decided whom she’s voting for (I mean, just look at those glasses…)
I don't know how they pulled it off, but for their Harris town hall CNN managed to find a woman+registered Democrat+poli sci professor at Swarthmore undecided voter pic.twitter.com/P7yUWOVqn8
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