GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $26.10 TO $2789.15

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.38 TO $33.991

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2786.60

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $33.77

Bitcoin morning price:$72260 UP 604 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $71,811 up 155 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing DOWN $35.55 TO $1015.15

Palladium price; DOWN $71.10 TO $1153.30

Seems that they forgot out gold in their usual and customary whacking of precious metals during OTC/LBMA options expiry week. Let us see what the crooks will do to gold tomorrow

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3872.51 UP 10.89 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2148.36 UP 15.06 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,565.55 UP 0.90 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)

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END

EXCHANGE

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: OCTOBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,768.400000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 10/29/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 10/31/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

190 H BMO CAPITAL 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 3
523 C INTERACTIVE BRO 3
690 C ABN AMRO 1

TOTAL: 4 4

JPMorgan stopped 0/4

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR OCT/2024. CONTRACT: 4 NOTICES FOR 400 OZ or 0.1710 TONNES

total notices so far: 12,666 contracts for 1,266,600 Oz (39.396 tonnes)

FOR OCT

SILVER NOTICES:1 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 5,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 1432 for 7.160 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP $20.10 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.,78 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER down $0.38 AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.542 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI ROSE BY A HUGE SIZED 1073 CONTRACTS TO 156,320 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS STRONG GAIN IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.49 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2573 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH THE STRONG GAIN OF $0.49 IN PRICE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL. WE HAD SOME MINIMAL SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE TUESDAY.. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1500 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG 497 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A MEGA HUMONGOUS 2573 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG 479 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY 49 CENTS) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2573 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1500 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 3.355 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY;S 5,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON+ .195 MILLION OZ ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR//NEW TOTAL 7.405 MILLION OZ

//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//OCT AT 7.405 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI GAIN//HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 497 CONTRACTS)/PLUS THAT STUPID ISSUANCE OF .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK THURSDAY, OCT 10

I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: removed 195 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20 DAYS, total 18,537 contracts: OR 92.685 MILLION OZ (927 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 92.685 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 92.685 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 1073 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.49 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1500 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR OCT OF 5.355 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S E.F.P JUMP TO LONDON OF 5,000 OZ TO WHICH WE ADD .195 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUANCE/PRIOR

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR OCT AT 7.405 MILLION OZ

WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 2573 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A STRONG SIZED 497 CONTRACTS ( WILL BE USED FOR TUESDAY’S TRADING),//ZERO FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION, AS OUR CROOKS ARE DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE

/ ZERO SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (497) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.

WE HAD 10 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 50,000 OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 18,062 OI CONTRACTS TO 584,675 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 5207 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI (18,062 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $25.35 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A HUGE INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR OCT AT 33.655 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ QUEUE JUMP

NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 39.474 TONNES+ + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR// = 60.391 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $25.35 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A MEGA HUMONGOUS GAIN OF 23,416 OI CONTRACTS (72.85 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON LAST FRIDAY, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING AND THE STEEP RISE IN PRICE AFTER THE FAILURE TO RAID ON COMEX EXPIRY.

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 5354 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 584,675

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 23,416 CONTRACTS WITH 18,062 CONTRACTS INCREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 5354 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 28,416 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 1785 CONTRACTS, WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY PLUS WE ALSO HAD MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5354 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE HUMONGOUS SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI OF 18,062 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 28,623 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR OCT 33.651 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ QUEUE JUMP + 20.917 ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR.

//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO TO: /OCT 39.474 TONNES. + 20.917 EX, FOR RISK/PRIOR = 60.391 TONNES

/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE TO NO AVAIL TUESDAY , AND WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS WERE NOT FOOLED AND THEY WERE REWARDED TUESDAY AS GOLD RESUMES ITS ATMOSPHERIC RISE…AND THIS CONTINUED ON WITH WEDNESDAY’S RISE IN PRICE DESPITE OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK IN FULL THROTTLE. THE CROOKS ARE HAVING AN AWFUL TIME TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE.

4) HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST INCREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1785 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

OCT

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 85,860 CONTRACTS OF 8,586,000 OZ OR 267.066 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4293 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 267.066 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 267.066 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 7.52% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 267.066 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1073 CONTRACTS OI TO 156,320 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1500 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1500 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1500 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI GAIN OF 1073 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1500 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2573 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 12.465 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.49 GAIN IN PRICE

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT

ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.17 PTS OR 0.61%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 320.50 PTS OR 1.55%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 373.71 PTS OR 0.96%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.78%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED YO TO 7.1217 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1350// Oil DOWN TO 67.98 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 71.93 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3 CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST ROSE BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 18,062 CONTRACTS TO 579,468 WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $25.35 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5354). AND THINGS MUST BE DESPERATE AS FIRSTLY ON TUESDAY, OCT 2, WE HAD THE FIRST ISSUANCE IN OVER 3 MONTHS FOR THAT STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK, WHEREBY THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK FOR DELIVERY. WHY ON EARTH WOULD A BUYER ASSUME SOMETHING LIKE THIS WHEN YOU ARE GUARANTEED DELIVERY VIA AN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL VIA LONDON? UNLESS FOR HUGE MONEY! WELL, ON THURSDAY, OCT 10 WE RECEIVED NOTICE OF A SECOND ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK, AT 239 NOTICES OR 23,900 OZ (.7433 TONNES). LAST NIGHT ZERO EXCHANGE FOR RISK WAS ISSUED. THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT THIS MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! THIS WEEK HAS BEEN A STELLAR WEEK FOR GOLD PRICE INCREASES.

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S GAIN IN PRICE AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING, WITH ZERO LONGS BEING CLIPPED (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF OCT.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5354 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 5354 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5354 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A MEGA HUMONGOUS TOTAL OF 23,416 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5354 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 18,062 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS HUGE GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR STRONG ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $25.35 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A HUGE SIZED 5354 CONTRACTS, WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: OCT (60.391 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR OCT DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV. 8.074 TONNES

OCT. 57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE: 72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL 95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES

OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR: 19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676 tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.391 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $25.35/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY COUPLED WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION BUT THIS COULD NOT STOP GOLD’S ADVANCE. CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING.

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 72.85 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR OCT (33.651TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 2100 OZ QUEUE JUMP PLUS + 20.917 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//PRIOR

//NEW STANDING FOR OCT 39.474 TONNES.+ + 20.917 TONNES (EXCHANGE FOR RISK

NEW STANDING FOR OCT 39.474 TONNES + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/PRIOR= 60.391 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $25.35

WE HAD 5207 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 23,416 CONTRACTS OR 2,341,600 OZ (72.85 TONNES)

confirmed volume TUESDAY 236,562 contracts fair

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

OCT 30 OCT GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE OCT 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory in oz*	nil
Withdrawals from Customer* Inventory in oz*	32,15OZ BRINKS 1 KILOBARS GOLD LEAVING LONDON DEBITED TO COMEX JPM .
Deposit to the Dealer* Inventory in oz*	NIL
Deposits to the Customer* Inventory, in oz*	NIL
No of oz served (contracts) today	4 notice(s) 400 OZ 0.0124 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	21 contracts 2100 OZ 0.0653 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	12,670 notices 1,267,000oz 39.409 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer* inventory this month*	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits: nil oz

we have 0 customer deposits

total deposits NIL oz

withdrawals: 1

I) out of Brinks 32.15 oz 1 kilobars

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 32.15 oz

adjustments: 1 JPMorgan

dealer to customer: 9645.300 oz (300 kilobars)

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.

For the front month of OCT: we have an oi of 25 contracts having LOST 34 contracts

We had 55 contracts filed on TUESDAY so we GAINED 21 contracts on our two exchanges or 21 CONTRACTS underwent a 2100 oz queue jump. This is central bank action grabbing all the physical they can.

NOVEMBER LOST 111 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 708

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH GAINED A WHOPPING 9629 CONTRACTS TO 438,765

We had 4 contracts filed for today representing 400 oz

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 4 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for OCT /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (12,670 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT(25 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,269,100 OZ OR 39.474 TONNES. TO WHICH WE ADD THAT STUPID 20.917 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR, NEW TOTAL = 60.391 TONNES

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the OCTOBER contract month: No of notices filed so far (12,670 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of OCT (25 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (4 x 100 oz which equals 1,269,100 oz (39.474 TONNES) + 20.917 EX. FOR RISK DELIVERY /PRIOR = 60.391 TONNES

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR OCT.: 60.391 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz JPM No 2

1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/

Manfra: 33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,604,347.348 oz 49,90 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 16,978,268.260 OZ

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,692,100.435/// 239.25tonnes).

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,286,167.825 OZ

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,087.753 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 189.35 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

OCT 30\ 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE OCT 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers* Inventory*	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	630,338.120oz CNT Loomis .
Deposits to the Dealer* Inventory*	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	561,389.330 oz Loomis
No of oz served today (contracts)	10 CONTRACT(S) (50,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	11 contracts (55,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	1442 Contracts (7.210 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers* inventory this month*	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer* inventory this month*

i) 0 dealer deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had 1 customer deposits

i) Into Loomis 561,389.330 oz

total customer deposits 561,389.330 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of CNT 29,644.820 oz

ii) Out of Loomis; 600,693.300 oz

total withdrawal 630,338.120 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.997million or 43.63%

adjustment 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.688MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.997million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF OCT /2024 OI: 10 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 2 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 1 CONTRACT SERVED ON TUESDAY SO WE LOST 1 CONTRACTS OR WE ENTERTAINED A 5,000 OZ E.F.P. JUMP TO LONDON

NOVEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 179 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 569

DECEMBER SAW A GAIN OF 498 CONTRACTS UP TO 125,255 CONTRACTS

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 10 for 50,000 oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 81,448 strong

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in OCT we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 1442x 5,000 oz = 7.210 MILLION oz

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of OCT (XX) and the number of notices served upon today (10)x (5000 oz) to which we add 195,000 oz of exchange for risk/PRIOR equals the number of ounces standing.

Thus the standings for silver for the OCT2024 contract month: 1432 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of OCT(10) number of notices served upon today minus (10)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the OCT contract month + .195 million oz ex. for risk/PRIOR equates to 7.405 MILLION OZ.

New total standing: 7.405 million oz.

There are 70.688 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES

OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES

OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES

OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 889.78 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ

OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ

OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ

OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ

OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ

OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 477.542 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

Building A Better City: Why Markets Are Our Best Architect

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

What if the key to solving our urban crises, such as housing shortages, traffic congestion, and wealth inequality, lies not in more government intervention, but in the principles of free-market economics? Market urbanism offers a bold vision for our cities, one that harnesses competition and individual choice to create livable, thriving environments. As traditional planning methods falter, it’s time to utilize market-driven solutions to reshape our urban landscapes for the better.

At its core, market urbanism posits that cities work best through bottom-up, private sector activity rather than centralized government planning.

This concept, rooted in classical liberal economic principles, offers a compelling alternative to the status quo of urban development.

One of the most pressing urban issues today is the shortage of affordable housing. Conventional wisdom often blames developers and market forces for rising home prices. However, a closer examination reveals that government regulations, particularly restrictive zoning laws, are the primary culprits behind housing unaffordability. These regulations limit housing supply, driving up costs and exacerbating inequality.

Market urbanism calls for a significant relaxation or even abolition of these restrictive zoning laws. By allowing developers to build more densely and flexibly, cities can increase housing supply and naturally bring down prices. This isn’t just theory – real-world data supports this approach. Metros known for their more permissive building regulations consistently show lower median home prices compared to heavily regulated markets.

For instance, Houston, known for its relatively lax zoning laws, issued 88.3 building permits per 10,000 residents in 2019. In contrast, New York City issued only 30.4 permits per 10,000 residents. Unsurprisingly, Houston’s median home price remains far more affordable than New York’s. This pattern holds true across multiple metro areas, demonstrating a clear correlation between building freedom and housing affordability.

Transportation is another area in dire need of overhaul. Instead of relying solely on government-planned and operated transit systems, market urbanists advocate for a more diverse, competitive transportation landscape. This could include private bus services, ride-sharing platforms, and market-priced road usage to reduce congestion.

The success of such approaches is evident in areas that have embraced market-oriented transportation policies. Cities that have implemented congestion pricing, such as London and Singapore, have seen reduced traffic and improved air quality.

Opponents of market urbanism typically raise concerns about equity and displacement. They argue that market-driven development could lead to gentrification and the displacement of low-income residents. However, the root cause of these issues is the artificial scarcity created by restrictive regulations. By allowing more housing to be built across all neighborhoods, cities can relieve pressure on existing affordable areas and provide more options for residents at all income levels.

Market urbanism doesn’t call for a complete absence of government involvement in urban development. Rather, it advocates for a shift in the role of government from top-down planner to a simple facilitator of market processes. Governing bodies should ensure the system runs smoothly through external controls, instead of inefficiently dictating every minute internal detail.

As we look to the future, the need for new approaches to urban development becomes more apparent. The United Nations projects that by 2050, 68% of the world’s population will live in urban areas. This urban growth will require cities to adapt quickly and efficiently to meet the needs of their residents.

Market urbanism offers a promising path forward. By harnessing the power of markets and individual choice, cities can become more responsive to the needs and preferences of their residents. This approach has the potential to create more affordable housing, efficient transportation systems, and better overall urban spaces.

As we grapple with the urban challenges of the 21st century, it’s clear that the old ways of centralized planning and restrictive regulations are no longer sufficient. However, implementing market urbanist policies will require overcoming entrenched interests and long-held beliefs about urban development. It will take politicians cutting long-held ties to companies and lobbyists in favor of seeing their cities thrive. By embracing this approach, we can create urban environments that truly serve the needs of all residents and form cities with a prosperous future.

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES

The writing on the floor

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-10-29 13:46 Section: Daily Dispatches

Mene, mene, tekel, upharsin.

* * *

By Mike Maharrey
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Tuesday, October 29, 2024

The universe seems to know the dollar is in trouble.

During a recent news conference, a reporter asked Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, “How concerned are you about the potential impact of the dollar’s status as the world reserve currency?”

Before the reporter could finish the question, the Treasury Department seal fell off the podium and hit the floor with a loud series of thuds.

It was an eerily symbolic moment. …

… For the remainder of the analysis:

https://www.moneymetals.com/news/2024/10/29/eerily-symbolic-treasury-seal-falls-off-podium-as-yellen-fields-question-about-the-dollars-status-003575

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 196 ANDREW MAGUIRE

Goldman Hikes Its Gold Price Forecast On ‘Five-Fold’ Increase In Central-Bank Demand

…the fivefold increase in our nowcast of central and other institutional demand… has reset the relationship between real rates and gold prices…

THIS IS A PAID SUBSCRIPTION.

WED OCT 30, AT 1:45 PM

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.17 PTS OR 0.61%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 320.50 PTS OR 1.55%

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.1217

OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1350

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 20.17 PTS OR 0.61%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 320.50 PTS OR 1.55%

2. Nikkei closed UP 373.71 POINTS OR 0.96%

3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 104.07 EURO RISES TO 1.0832 UP 12 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.944 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.86…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3135 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.568 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.026

3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.221

3j Gold at $2779.30 /Silver at: 34.04 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 47/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.02

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.85 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.944% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8672 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9393 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.219 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.463 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.080 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.29…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.268 DOWN 6 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.233 DOWN 9 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.011 DOWN 9 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Flat Even As Surging Alphabet Leads Tech Higher, Gold Hits New Record

by Tyler Durden

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 08:11 AM

US equity futures are flat, reversing modest overnight gains ahead of the next batch of earnings. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were flat while Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.1%; GOOG was the second of the Mag7 to beat earnings, and the stock is +5.4% pre-mkt after beating across the board on strong cloud growth. AMZN, META, MSFT are all trading up at least 1.7% pre-market. Semis are lower with AMD -8.5% and NVDA -80bps. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull steepens ahead of ADP numbers and US Q3 GDP/Price releases. A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar snapped a three-day advance, and the commodity bid returned led by Energy. META and MSFT are the next Mag7 earnings today. Today’s macro US economic data calendar includes October ADP employment change (8:15am), 3Q advance GDP (8:30am) and September pending home sales (10am).

In premarket trading, Alphabet gains 6%, showing an expensive foray into artificial intelligence is starting to pay off, delivering better-than-expected sales for its cloud-computing business. On the other end, AMD tumbled 8% after the chipmaker’s revenue outlook fell below Wall Street’s expectations, signaling that its artificial intelligence sales are growing slower than some had anticipated. Eli Lilly tumbled 11% after the Mounjaro and Zepound maker lowered its full-year guidance as sales of its blockbuster weight-loss drug fell short of expectations, which the company blamed on inventory issues. Translation: the fat bubble is finally over. Qorvo, whose biggest customer is Apple, tumbled 19% after forecasting revenue and profit far short of estimates. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

Chipotle (CMG) drops 5% after reporting third-quarter sales that fell just short of Wall Street’s expectations, highlighting the high bar to which investors are holding the chain after it’s outpaced many peers this year.
Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY) sinks 9% after the company lowered its full-year guidance after sales of its blockbuster weight-loss drug fell short of expectations.
First Solar (FSLR) falls 7% on a lowered full-year guidance partly due to India market headwinds.
NerdWallet (NRDS) surges 27% after the consumer finance firm’s third-quarter revenue beat estimates.
Reddit (RDDT) rises 20% after the company’s sales and forecast beat analyst expectations.
Visa (V) gains 2% after the payments company’s fiscal fourth-quarter earnings surpassed expectations.

Just about a week away from the Fed’s decision, and less than a week from the presidential election, investors are turning their focus to three high-profile reports in the US that look set to show underlying resilience in the economy and a temporary hiccup in job growth. They’re also positioning for a too-close-to-call US presidential election on Nov. 5.

“The mood in the market today feels more like the calm before the next storm,” said Hebe Chen, a market analyst at IG Markets Ltd. “Traders are on edge, bracing for the incoming tide of uncertainties from multiple sources,” including the US election and major tech earnings.

European stocks decline on another day packed with earnings reports, with all eyes on the UK budget later Wednesday. The euro area’s economy expanded more strongly than expected in the third quarter, data showed Wednesday — with even Germany avoiding the recession it was widely tipped to endure. A measure of economic confidence, however, unexpectedly declined. The Stoxx 600 fell 1% to 512.4 with all 20 sectors in the red but consumer and technology sectors were the worst performers. Here are some of the biggest movers on Wednesday:

ASM International shares rise as much as 8.1% after the Dutch firm raised the lower end of next year’s sales guidance, seeing continued strength in demand for equipment used to make the next-generation logic and memory chips.
Puig shares jumped as much as 15%, most on record, after the Spanish luxury beauty company reported 3Q net revenue that rose 11.1% to €1.257b from the same period a year earlier, according to a regulatory filing.
Aston Martin shares rise as much as 6.2% as analysts highlighted an extended order book and hopes of improving cash flow generation in the UK carmaker’s third-quarter results.
Georg Fischer shares jump as much as 16% as the Swiss maker of flow-control equipment said it is divesting its machining business to focus on its water unit, which is less cyclical.
Kion gains as much as 10% following results which generally pleased analysts, especially on the warehouse equipment firm’s Ebit performance.
Volkswagen shares rally from recent lows after the German carmaker reported third-quarter earnings that Stifel analysts say were “better than feared.”
Campari shares slide as much as 17% after the Italian beverage maker saw a significant miss in the third quarter, with negative organic sales growth.
Grenke slumps as much as 29%, the most since Feb. 2021, following a cut to the German leasing finance provider’s guidance for the full year.
Capgemini shares fall as much as 8.1% after the French IT provider reduced revenue growth guidance for a second consecutive quarter, dragged by a decline in its North America market and weaker client demand in areas including manufacturing.
Amundi shares drop 5.8% as analysts at Morgan Stanley warned a negative flow mix and an exceptional tax surcharge in France could weigh on forward estimates, overshadowing an otherwise in-line set of results.

Traders have pared their ECB interest-rate cut bets after the euro-area economy grew more than expected – with even Germany avoiding the recession it was widely tipped to endure – and German state inflation readings suggested the national print will top estimates. A measure of economic confidence, however, unexpectedly declined.The German yield curve has flattened as a result, with two-year yields reversing course and rising 2 bps to 2.15%. The euro also got a boost, climbing 0.2% against the greenback. Gilt yields drop across the curve ahead of the budget while the pound falls 0.3%.

A key gauge of Asian equities traded in a narrow range, as gains in Japan were countered by losses in Chinese markets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.1%, erasing an earlier rise of as much as 0.4%. The biggest contributors to the measure’s advance included Hitachi, Disco and Keyence, while TSMC and Tencent ranked among the major drags. Japanese benchmarks led gains as tech shares tracked advances in their US peers. Local exporters are also expected to benefit from the continued weakness in the yen, while an improved outlook for nuclear power is supporting utility shares. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to stand pat Thursday, having paused its path toward higher interest rates. Key gauges in Hong Kong and mainland China dropped on continued volatility as traders await more decisive moves from Beijing to support the ailing economy and markets. The nation is weighing a package of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion).

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index dropped 0.2%, snapping three days of gains. US 10-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 4.22%. EUR/USD heads for a third daily advance, gains as much as 0.4% to 1.0859, highest since Oct. 21, before halving gains

In rates, treasuries advance across the curve as 10-year note futures extend through to fresh weekly highs into early US session. Long-end leads gains on the day, flattening 2s10s and 5s30s close to Tuesday’s lows. US long-end yields are richer by nearly 4bp, flattening 2s10s, 5s30s spreads flatter by 2bp and 1.5bp on the day; 10-year is around 4.22% with gilts outperforming by 5.5bp in the sector. Gilts bull-flatten ahead of the revised gilt remit, which may skew more debt issuance away from the long-end. German short-dated maturities lag after regional inflation and GDP data saw ECB rate-cut pricing fade. US session includes October ADP employment change and first estimate of 3Q GDP.

In commodities, oil steadied after a two-day decline on the prospect for a further easing of hostilities in the Middle East. WTI rose 1% to $67.90 a barrel. Gold hit a fresh record early on Wednesday rising $11 to $2,786/oz as traders weighed potential market disruption ahead of the election. Bitcoin, seen as a Trump trade, held above $72,000, on the cusp of topping its March high.

Looking at today’s US economic data, the calendar includes October ADP employment change (8:15am), 3Q advance GDP (8:30am) and September pending home sales (10am). Fed officials are in self-imposed quiet period ahead of Nov. 7 policy announcement

Market Snapshot

S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,884.75
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 515.42
MXAP down 0.1% to 187.04
MXAPJ down 0.7% to 594.78
Nikkei up 1.0% to 39,277.39
Topix up 0.8% to 2,703.72
Hang Seng Index down 1.5% to 20,380.64
Shanghai Composite down 0.6% to 3,266.24
Sensex down 0.5% to 79,966.37
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 8,180.36
Kospi down 0.9% to 2,593.79
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.30%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0839
Brent Futures up 1.2% to $72.00/bbl
Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,784.22
US Dollar Index down 0.20% to 104.11

Top Overnight News

China’s ~$1.4T fiscal stimulus plan might just stabilize (rather than materially boost) the country’s growth trajectory. RTRS
Xi Jinping urges Chinese officials to make all-out effort to hit annual growth targets. Beijing has already unveiled a series of stimulus measures, with more expected amid a final push to reach this year’s ‘around 5 per cent’ target. SCMP
Australia’s CPI cooled in Q3 and Sept (the Sept CPI tumbled to +2.1%, down from +2.7% in Aug and below the consensus forecast of +2.3%), although it’s likely the RBA will hold off on immediately cutting rates. WSJ
Ukraine and Russia are in preliminary discussions about halting strikes on each other’s energy infrastructure, according to people familiar with the matter. FT
UBS profit almost doubled estimates, equity trading gains outperformed peers and wealth management saw net new assets of $25 billion. The stock climbed to a 16-year high. European banking needs consolidation and “national interests” shouldn’t get in the way, CEO Sergio Ermotti said. BBG
The euro-area economy grew more than expected last quarter, with Germany unexpectedly dodging recession. Momentum accelerated in France while Italy was the weak point. The euro ticked up. US GDP, due later, probably slowed to 2.9%. BBG
John Paulson, a potential Treasury Sec candidate if Trump wins, said he would work w/Musk to slash gov’t spending. WSJ
Musk warns Trump’s economic agenda will cause “temporary hardship” in the country (Musk said there would be an “initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that the “market will tumble” if Trump wins and enacts his plan). NYT

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly lower after the mixed performance stateside and as participants braced for this week’s key risk events including mega-cap earnings in the US and a deluge of data releases. ASX 200 was pressured by notable weakness in the consumer sectors after Woolworths flagged a challenging fiscal year. Nikkei 225 bucked the trend and extended above the 39,000 status with the BoJ widely expected to refrain from further policy normalisation when it concludes its 2-day policy meeting tomorrow. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with the former dragged lower by weakness in tech and automakers owing to trade-related headwinds from the threat of higher US tariffs in the event of a Trump election victory next week and after the EU imposed duties on subsidised EVs from China, while the losses in the mainland were initially cushioned following prior reports of a potential fresh fiscal package before eventually succumbing to the broad risk aversion.

Top Asian News

China responded to US finalised restrictions on Chinese technology in which it called on the US to end the politicisation of economic affairs and hopes the US respects market economy rules, while it sees the US action as damaging to Chinese and American business collaboration.
MOFCOM said China does not agree with or accept the ruling regarding EU tariffs on Chinese EVs and opened proceedings at the WTO, while it noted the EU’s indication it will continue to consult with China on a price commitment plan.
EU imposed duties on unfairly subsidised EVs from China while discussions on price undertakings continue with duties of 17% imposed on BYD, 18.8% on Geely and 35.3% on SAIC. Furthermore, Tesla will be assigned a duty of 7.8% and all other non-cooperating companies will have a duty of 35.3%.
Japanese opposition CDP leader Noda will submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet and asked the Japan Innovation Party to vote for him to become PM, although Noda reportedly declined to respond to a request by the Japan Innovation Party.
Japan Exchange Group announced the Tokyo Stock Exchange will extend trading hours by 30 minutes from November 5th with the new close to be at 15:30 local time (06:30GMT/02:30EDT).

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.8%) began the session entirely in negative territory and continued to gradually trundle lower as the morning progressed. European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Retail just about holds afloat, lifted by post-earning strength in Next. Financial Services was initially propped up by gains in UBS, but has since edged towards the middle of the pile. Tech is found at the foot of the pile, with strong ASM International (+4.3%) results ultimately outmuscled by the dim mood across chip-names after AMD’s Q4 outlook disappointed. US Equity Futures (ES +0.2% NQ +0.2% RTY -0.1%) are mixed and ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark ahead of a very busy docket, which includes; US ADP, PCE Prices/GDP Advance and a very busy data docket. In terms of pre-market movers; Alphabet (+5.5%) gains after it beat on Q3 and amid continued optimism surrounding AI which has boosted its cloud business. AMD (-8.5%) reported a mixed set of results, but its Q4 outlook was soft.

Top European News

UK Chancellor Reeves is to provide armed forces a boost of nearly GBP 3bln in the Budget, according to The Telegraph.

Notable Earnings

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 1.84), Revenue 88.27bln (exp. 86.31bln). Google advertising revenue: 65.85bln (exp. 65.5bln), Google Search & Other revenue: 49.39bln (exp. 49.08bln), Google Cloud revenue: 11.35bln (exp. 10.79bln), YouTube ads revenue: 8.92bln (exp. 8.89bln) Co. shares were higher by 5.9% after-hours
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 0.92 (exp. 0.92), Revenue 6.82bln (exp. 6.71bln) Co. shares were lower by 7.6% after-hours
Snap Inc (SNAP) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.05), Revenue 1.37bln (exp. 1.36bln). Co. shares were higher by 10.6% after-hours
Visa (V) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.71 (exp. 2.58), Revenue 9.6bln (exp. 9.49bln). Co. shares were higher by 1.8% after-hours
Caterpillar Inc (CAT) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.17 (exp. 5.34), Revenue 16.11bln (exp. 16.08bln).

USD is marginally softer vs. most peers in what will be a session set to endure a raft of US data including GDP, quarterly core PCE and ADP with the latter (rightly or wrongly) set be used to gauge expectations for Friday’s NFP print.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD with some support garnered from better growth outturns in Germany and the Eurozone. This matters because the ECB is seemingly increasingly focused on growth dynamics. Albeit, markets are still awaiting inflation metrics tomorrow. The next upside target for EUR/USD comes via the 200DMA at 1.0868.
GBP flat vs. the USD in the run up to today’s UK budget. As mentioned in our commentary throughout the week, the budget is meant to be expansionary on a headline basis despite a potential squeeze on an individual basis. ING expects the event to not be a game-changer for the GBP, however, if there is to be a negative risk, it stems from the Gilt supply remit. For now, Cable is tucked within yesterday’s 1.2959-1.3058 range and above its 100DMA at 1.2974.
JPY is ever so slightly softer vs. the USD. Updates out of Japan have seen reports that opposition CDP leader Noda will submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet and asked the Japan Innovation Party to vote for him to become PM. USD/JPY is currently caged within yesterday’s 152.75-153.86 range ahead of a busy session of US data.
Despite a sluggish start to the session, both antipodes have managed to pick themselves up. AUD/USD printed another multi-month low overnight at 0.6538 before moving back into the green.
SNB Chairman Schlegel says the CHF is a safe haven, which appreciates in times of uncertainty; ready to react to pressure and intervene in FX markets.

Fixed Income

Bunds were initially firmer going into German GDP/State inflation metrics, but dipped into negative territory following stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP and hotter than the mainland implied state CPIs for October. Thereafter, EZ growth metrics also came in higher than expected but sparked no real reaction as this echoed the lead from Spain & Germany earlier in the session. Bunds currently trading around 132.70.
Gilts outperform and hold near session highs at around 96.05. Focus for the complex is entirely on the upcoming UK budget, where the reaction will depend on just how much headroom Reeves gives herself and then, more pertinently, how much she utilises; for reference, the Reuters survey looks for the 2024/25 Gilt remit to increase by 17bln from 278bln to 295bln.
USTs are modestly firmer but ultimately awaiting data and refunding. Q3 GDP is forecast at the 3.0% mark which would be in-fitting with the prior but above the final AtlantaFed GDP Nowcast of 2.8%. Thereafter, we turn to Quarterly Refunding which is largely expected to reiterate the last outing though attention is on any change to their guidance for no increase to coupon or FRN sizes for the next several quarters. Currently sitting at session highs at around 111-04+.
Italy sells EUR 5.5bln vs exp. EUR 4.75-5.5bln 3.00% 2029 & 3.85% 2035 BTP & EUR 3.5bln vs exp. EUR 3-3.5bln 2033 CCTeu.

Commodities

Crude benchmarks are in the green, deriving support from the firmer US tone though have faded from best amid the soft European start. Upside which came after a surprise draw in the headline inventory measures last night. Brent’Jan 25 currently sits around USD 71.30/bbl.
Spot gold is a touch firmer benefitting from the softer yield environment and accompanying USD pressure; a narrative which could well change on upcoming key US data and the latest refunding announcement. Just off a USD 2789/oz peak, which marked yet another ATH.
Base metals are largely contained, with specifics somewhat light after a busy session yesterday where reporting of Chinese stimulus drove upside in the European morning.
Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.6mln (exp. +2.2mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -0.3mln (exp. +0.5mln).
Kazakhstan is to cut its 2024 oil output target from the current 90.3mln tons, according to the Energy Minister.
India’s gold consumption rose 18% Y/Y in Q3, as investment and jewellery demand jumps, via World Gold Council.

Geopolitics

Iran’s Defense Minister says “there has been no disruption to missile production since the Israeli attack”.
Israeli army issues bombing notice to the entire eastern city of Baalbeck and surrounding areas, according to Reuters citing IDF spokesperson.
Israeli officials cited by Axios noted that Hezbollah is ready to distance itself from Hamas in Gaza and the IDF is close to ending the ground operation in villages in Lebanon that border with Israel, while the army reportedly recommended to PM Netanyahu that the time is right to end the fighting in Lebanon. Furthermore, Haaretz reported the security establishment is unanimous regarding exploiting military achievements in southern Lebanon and Gaza to reach agreements to end the war
US President Biden’s advisers are to visit Israel to try to seal a deal to end the war in Lebanon, according to Axios.
Sirens sounded in several areas of Israel after the launch of surface-to-surface missiles from Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya.
Russia’s Kremlin dismisses FT report that Russia and Ukraine “are in early talks about stopping striking energy infrastructure”.
Ukraine and Russia are in talks about halting strikes on energy plants, according to FT.
US confirmed a small number of North Korean troops are already in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korea’s defence intelligence agency said it is possible some North Korean troops have been deployed on the battlefield in the Ukraine-Russia war and stated that North Korean troops are not ready for drone warfare in the Ukraine-Russia war.

US event calendar

07:00: Oct. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -6.7%
08:15: Oct. ADP Employment Change, est. 111,000, prior 143,000
08:30: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.9%, prior 3.0%
- 3Q GDP Price Index, est. 1.9%, prior 2.5%
- 3Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.3%, prior 2.8%
- 3Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.1%, prior 2.8%
10:00: Sept. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. -1.1%, prior -4.3%
- Sept. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. 1.9%, prior 0.6%

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Just when the US Treasury sell-off was starting to gather fresh momentum yesterday, with 10yr yields close to 4.34% as Europe went home, along came a better auction which seemed to help turn things around in a volatile session, leaving it -2.8bp lower on the day at 4.255% with 2yr yields rallying c.8bps off the session highs to close -4.3bps lower. Still, in a sign of the heightened volatility going into the US election, the MOVE index ended the day at its highest level since October 2023.

The 7yr auction saw the highest bid-to-cover ratio since 2020, with bonds issued -2.0bps below the when-issued yield. So an encouraging sign on the demand for Treasuries after lacklustre 2yr and 5yr auctions the previous day. The move lower in yields saw one failed attempt after a weaker JOLTS report which contradicted last month’s bumper payroll release.

Job openings fell to their lowest level since January 2021, at 7.443m (vs. 8m expected). And the report also showed the quits rate of those voluntarily leaving their roles decline from 2.0% to 1.9%, which is the lowest since mid-2015 if you exclude the Covid months of March-June 2020. Although the JOLTS data is always a month behind other data, it is a very good guide to the labour markets so there should be some concern here. We’ll see if we can derive much signal from payrolls on Friday given all the recent storms and strikes.

On the plus side though, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence indicator surged to its highest level since January, at 108.7 (vs. 99.5 expected). Moreover, the difference between those saying jobs were “plentiful” and “hard to get” finally rose after 8 consecutive monthly declines, ticking up to a net +18.3%. So those on the extreme sides of the US employment debate at the moment could find something to cling to in the data.

Even though Treasuries reversed from their recent “Trump trade” association, other such trades continued to be strong. The Trump Media & Technology Group continues to be most correlated with his prospects, and they were up another +8.76% yesterday to their highest level since May. In the meantime, Bitcoin (+5.45%) closed at its highest level since March, at $72,700.
Even with the big moves of late, especially in yields, one view that hasn’t been much in doubt over the last couple of weeks has been the prospects that the Fed will cut rates 25bps next week. The likelihood has predominantly been in the 90-100% range since mid-October. On this Matt Luzzetti put out a note yesterday here explaining why policy rules would support the Fed cutting next week. They also discuss how the case for pausing or skipping will build in 2025, for various reasons which could include the election results. Staying with Matt’s US team, they’ve just published a good use case for AI by plugging in all Powell’s prepared FOMC press conference speeches into our chatDBT model and asking it to score each on a 1-10 hawkometer. They then correlated this to 2yr yields, amongst other variables, and get a good match. They are going to build on this work but if you want to see it please see here for more.

Moving onto equities, they had a mixed day. The S&P 500 (+0.16%) inched closer to its all-time high from a couple of weeks ago even as nearly 70% of its constituents were down on the day. The gain was rather driven by tech stocks, with the NASDAQ (+0.78%) reaching a record high of its own and with the Mag-7 outperforming (+0.88%). After the close we heard from Alphabet, whose results delivered a solid sales and earnings beat, amid strong cloud computing growth. Its shares rose by more than +5% in post-market trading. Those Mag 7 earnings will continue today, with both Meta and Microsoft reporting after the close.
Here in Europe, attention is now turning to the UK’s Budget today, which is the first of the new Labour government that came to office in July. Ahead of that, the 10yr gilt yield (+6.2bps) moved up to 4.31%, which is their highest closing level since June.

Moreover, the spread of 10yr gilts over bunds widened another +1.1bps to 198bps, which is their widest since August 2023. So from a market point of view, the main focus today will be on how much additional borrowing there is, particularly given it was just over two years ago that the mini-budget under Liz Truss sent UK markets into turmoil.

In terms of what to expect, an important focus will be on the new fiscal rules, and Chancellor Rachel Reeves has confirmed that the government is planning to change the way it measures debt in order to fund extra investment. In the meantime, tax rises have also been signalled, and discussions in the press have centered around an increase in national insurance contributions by employers, higher capital gains tax rates, and an extension to the existing freeze on income tax thresholds beyond 2028. See our economists’ preview of it here.

Elsewhere in Europe, markets struggled yesterday. Yields on 10yr bunds (+5.1bps), OATs (+6.7bps) and BTPs (+7.1bps) all moved higher, albeit with trading coming to a close before the rally in the latter part of the US session. Yesterday’s underperformance in Europe should also be viewed in the context of the outperformance over the past few weeks, with 10yr bund yields +21bps higher since the end of September, compared to a +47bp rise for 10yr Treasuries. Also unlike in the US, equities struggled, with the STOXX 600 (-0.57%) closing at a 3-week low. Maybe that’s a mini Trump trade in itself.

Asian equity markets are mostly lower this morning with the Hang Seng (-1.86%) leading losses followed by the CSI (-1.09%) and the Shanghai Composite (-0.86%). Elsewhere, the KOSPI (-1.07%) is also trading noticeably lower with the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.89%) also in the red, ending a three-day winning streak. On the other side of the ledger, the Nikkei (+1.09%) is bucking the regional trend and extending gains for the third consecutive session. S&P 500 (+0.15%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.15%) futures are seeing small gains with US Treasury yields another basis point lower across the curve.

Coming back to Australia, the headline inflation sank to its lowest level in more than three years in the September quarter, mainly due to softer electricity and fuel prices. The CPI rose +0.2% q/q (v/s +0.3% expected) and slowing substantially from the +1% increase in the prior quarter. Trimmed mean CPI, which is closely watched by the RBA, rose +0.8% q/q, slightly down from +0.9% gain in the previous quarter but around consensus. The labour market in Australia remains strong and inflation is stickier than its DM peers so the data confirms no imminent rate cuts for now.

To the day ahead now, and US data releases include Q3 GDP, the ADP’s report of private payrolls for October, and pending home sales for September. Meanwhile in Europe, we’ll get Euro Area GDP for Q3, the Spanish CPI along with the German CPI and unemployment readings for October. From central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Schnabel, Villeroy and Nagel, along with Bank of Canada Governor Macklem. Earnings releases include Microsoft, Meta, Caterpillar and Starbucks. Finally in the UK, the government will be announcing their Budget.

2B) European report.

US futures mixed, GOOGL beats, DXY lower ahead of US ADP, PCE Prices/GDP Advance & GBP awaits Budget – Newsquawk US Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 06:24 AM

European bourses opened in negative territory and continued to trundle lower as the morning progressed, Tech lags post-AMD
Stateside, futures are firmer but only modestly so with Alphabet supporting as AI bolstered cloud performance
DXY briefly dipped below the 104.00 mark, EUR aided by hawkish-data while GBP awaits the budget
USTs continue to gain after Tuesday’s 7yr into Refunding, Bunds weighed on by data
Crude firmer after the surprise inventory draw with specifics otherwise somewhat light, XAU at another ATH
Looking ahead, German Inflation, US ADP, PCE Prices/GDP Advance (Q3), Japanese Retail Sales, UK Budget, ECB’s Schnabel, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers and US Quarterly Refunding.
Earnings from Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Caterpillar, ADP, Kraft Heinz, Hess, GE HealthCare, Humana, Garmin, Biogen, Bunge, Microsoft, Meta, Amgen, Booking Holdings, Starbucks, DoorDash, MetLife, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Robinhood, Carvana, MGM Resorts, Roku.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (-0.8%) began the session entirely in negative territory and continued to gradually trundle lower as the morning progressed.
European sectors hold a strong negative bias. Retail just about holds afloat, lifted by post-earning strength in Next. Financial Services was initially propped up by gains in UBS, but has since edged towards the middle of the pile. Tech is found at the foot of the pile, with strong ASM International (+4.3%) results ultimately outmuscled by the dim mood across chip-names after AMD’s Q4 outlook disappointed.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.2% NQ +0.2% RTY -0.1%) are mixed and ultimately trading on either side of the unchanged mark ahead of a very busy docket, which includes; US ADP, PCE Prices/GDP Advance and a very busy data docket.
In terms of pre-market movers; Alphabet (+5.5%) gains after it beat on Q3 and amid continued optimism surrounding AI which has boosted its cloud business. AMD (-8.5%) reported a mixed set of results, but its Q4 outlook was soft.
Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
Click for the additional news
Click for a detailed summary

FX

USD is marginally softer vs. most peers in what will be a session set to endure a raft of US data including GDP, quarterly core PCE and ADP with the latter (rightly or wrongly) set be used to gauge expectations for Friday’s NFP print.
EUR is firmer vs. the USD with some support garnered from better growth outturns in Germany and the Eurozone. This matters because the ECB is seemingly increasingly focused on growth dynamics. Albeit, markets are still awaiting inflation metrics tomorrow. The next upside target for EUR/USD comes via the 200DMA at 1.0868.
GBP flat vs. the USD in the run up to today’s UK budget. As mentioned in our commentary throughout the week, the budget is meant to be expansionary on a headline basis despite a potential squeeze on an individual basis. ING expects the event to not be a game-changer for the GBP, however, if there is to be a negative risk, it stems from the Gilt supply remit. For now, Cable is tucked within yesterday’s 1.2959-1.3058 range and above its 100DMA at 1.2974.
JPY is ever so slightly softer vs. the USD. Updates out of Japan have seen reports that opposition CDP leader Noda will submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet and asked the Japan Innovation Party to vote for him to become PM. USD/JPY is currently caged within yesterday’s 152.75-153.86 range ahead of a busy session of US data.
Despite a sluggish start to the session, both antipodes have managed to pick themselves up. AUD/USD printed another multi-month low overnight at 0.6538 before moving back into the green.
SNB Chairman Schlegel says the CHF is a safe haven, which appreciates in times of uncertainty; ready to react to pressure and intervene in FX markets.
Click for a detailed summary
Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

Bunds were initially firmer going into German GDP/State inflation metrics, but dipped into negative territory following stronger-than-expected Q3 GDP and hotter than the mainland implied state CPIs for October. Thereafter, EZ growth metrics also came in higher than expected but sparked no real reaction as this echoed the lead from Spain & Germany earlier in the session. Bunds currently trading around 132.70.
Gilts outperform and hold near session highs at around 96.05. Focus for the complex is entirely on the upcoming UK budget, where the reaction will depend on just how much headroom Reeves gives herself and then, more pertinently, how much she utilises; for reference, the Reuters survey looks for the 2024/25 Gilt remit to increase by 17bln from 278bln to 295bln.
USTs are modestly firmer but ultimately awaiting data and refunding. Q3 GDP is forecast at the 3.0% mark which would be in-fitting with the prior but above the final AtlantaFed GDP Nowcast of 2.8%. Thereafter, we turn to Quarterly Refunding which is largely expected to reiterate the last outing though attention is on any change to their guidance for no increase to coupon or FRN sizes for the next several quarters. Currently sitting at session highs at around 111-04+.
Italy sells EUR 5.5bln vs exp. EUR 4.75-5.5bln 3.00% 2029 & 3.85% 2035 BTP & EUR 3.5bln vs exp. EUR 3-3.5bln 2033 CCTeu.
Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

Crude benchmarks are in the green, deriving support from the firmer US tone though have faded from best amid the soft European start. Upside which came after a surprise draw in the headline inventory measures last night. Brent’Jan 25 currently sits around USD 71.30/bbl.
Spot gold is a touch firmer benefitting from the softer yield environment and accompanying USD pressure; a narrative which could well change on upcoming key US data and the latest refunding announcement. Just off a USD 2789/oz peak, which marked yet another ATH.
Base metals are largely contained, with specifics somewhat light after a busy session yesterday where reporting of Chinese stimulus drove upside in the European morning.
Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.6mln (exp. +2.2mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -0.3mln (exp. +0.5mln).
Kazakhstan is to cut its 2024 oil output target from the current 90.3mln tons, according to the Energy Minister.
India’s gold consumption rose 18% Y/Y in Q3, as investment and jewellery demand jumps, via World Gold Council.
Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

German State CPIs: Hotter state CPIs than the mainland implied alongside stronger than expected Q3 growth metrics sparked a hawkish reaction.
German Unemployment Chg SA (Oct) 27.0k vs. Exp. 15.0k (Prev. 17.0k); Unemployment Rate SA (Oct) 6.1% vs. Exp. 6.1% (Prev. 6.0%); Unemployment Total SA (Oct) 2.856M (Prev. 2.823M); Unemployment Total NSA (Oct) 2.791M (Prev. 2.806M)
German GDP Flash QQ SA (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. -0.1% (Prev. -0.1%); GDP Flash YY NSA (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.1% (Prev. 0.3%)
Spanish CPI YY Flash NSA (Oct) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.80% (Prev. 1.50%); Core 2.5% (prev. 2.4%); HICP Flash YY (Oct) 1.8% vs. Exp. 1.8% (Prev. 1.7%)
Spanish Estimated GDP QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.6% (Prev. 0.8%); YY (Q3) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.00% (Prev. 3.10%, Rev. 3.2%)
Italian GDP Prelim QQ (Q3) 0.0% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); GDP Prelim YY (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.9%, Rev. 0.6%)
Italian Producer Prices YY (Sep) -2.0% (Prev. -0.8%); Producer Prices MM (Sep) -0.6% (Prev. 0.7%)
EU Economic Sentiment (Oct) 95.6 vs. Exp. 96.3 (Prev. 96.2, Rev. 96.3); Services Sentiment (Oct) 7.1 vs. Exp. 6.6 (Prev. 6.7, Rev. 7.1); Consumer Confid. Final (Oct) -12.5 vs. Exp. -12.5 (Prev. -12.5); Industrial Sentiment (Oct) -13.0 vs. Exp. -10.5 (Prev. -10.9, Rev. -11.0); Selling Price Expec (Oct) 6.5 (Prev. 6.2, Rev. 6.3); Cons Infl Expec (Oct) 13.3 (Prev. 10.9, Rev. 11.0); Business Climate (Oct) -0.96 (Prev. -0.76)
EU GDP Flash Prelim YY (Q3) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.6%); GDP Flash Prelim QQ (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

UK Chancellor Reeves is to provide armed forces a boost of nearly GBP 3bln in the Budget, according to The Telegraph.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 1.84), Revenue 88.27bln (exp. 86.31bln). Google advertising revenue: 65.85bln (exp. 65.5bln), Google Search & Other revenue: 49.39bln (exp. 49.08bln), Google Cloud revenue: 11.35bln (exp. 10.79bln), YouTube ads revenue: 8.92bln (exp. 8.89bln) Co. shares were higher by 5.9% after-hours
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 0.92 (exp. 0.92), Revenue 6.82bln (exp. 6.71bln) Co. shares were lower by 7.6% after-hours
Snap Inc (SNAP) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.05), Revenue 1.37bln (exp. 1.36bln). Co. shares were higher by 10.6% after-hours
Visa (V) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.71 (exp. 2.58), Revenue 9.6bln (exp. 9.49bln). Co. shares were higher by 1.8% after-hours
Caterpillar Inc (CAT) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 5.17 (exp. 5.34), Revenue 16.11bln (exp. 16.08bln).

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Iran’s Defense Minister says “there has been no disruption to missile production since the Israeli attack”.
Israeli army issues bombing notice to the entire eastern city of Baalbeck and surrounding areas, according to Reuters citing IDF spokesperson.
Israeli officials cited by Axios noted that Hezbollah is ready to distance itself from Hamas in Gaza and the IDF is close to ending the ground operation in villages in Lebanon that border with Israel, while the army reportedly recommended to PM Netanyahu that the time is right to end the fighting in Lebanon. Furthermore, Haaretz reported the security establishment is unanimous regarding exploiting military achievements in southern Lebanon and Gaza to reach agreements to end the war
US President Biden’s advisers are to visit Israel to try to seal a deal to end the war in Lebanon, according to Axios.
Sirens sounded in several areas of Israel after the launch of surface-to-surface missiles from Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya.

OTHER

Russia’s Kremlin dismisses FT report that Russia and Ukraine “are in early talks about stopping striking energy infrastructure”.
Ukraine and Russia are in talks about halting strikes on energy plants, according to FT.
US confirmed a small number of North Korean troops are already in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korea’s defence intelligence agency said it is possible some North Korean troops have been deployed on the battlefield in the Ukraine-Russia war and stated that North Korean troops are not ready for drone warfare in the Ukraine-Russia war.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin takes a breather after advancing past USD 72k and after failing to breach USD 73k.

APAC TRADE

APAC stocks were mostly lower after the mixed performance stateside and as participants braced for this week’s key risk events including mega-cap earnings in the US and a deluge of data releases.
ASX 200 was pressured by notable weakness in the consumer sectors after Woolworths flagged a challenging fiscal year.
Nikkei 225 bucked the trend and extended above the 39,000 status with the BoJ widely expected to refrain from further policy normalisation when it concludes its 2-day policy meeting tomorrow.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with the former dragged lower by weakness in tech and automakers owing to trade-related headwinds from the threat of higher US tariffs in the event of a Trump election victory next week and after the EU imposed duties on subsidised EVs from China, while the losses in the mainland were initially cushioned following prior reports of a potential fresh fiscal package before eventually succumbing to the broad risk aversion.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

China responded to US finalised restrictions on Chinese technology in which it called on the US to end the politicisation of economic affairs and hopes the US respects market economy rules, while it sees the US action as damaging to Chinese and American business collaboration.
MOFCOM said China does not agree with or accept the ruling regarding EU tariffs on Chinese EVs and opened proceedings at the WTO, while it noted the EU’s indication it will continue to consult with China on a price commitment plan.
EU imposed duties on unfairly subsidised EVs from China while discussions on price undertakings continue with duties of 17% imposed on BYD, 18.8% on Geely and 35.3% on SAIC. Furthermore, Tesla will be assigned a duty of 7.8% and all other non-cooperating companies will have a duty of 35.3%.
Japanese opposition CDP leader Noda will submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet and asked the Japan Innovation Party to vote for him to become PM, although Noda reportedly declined to respond to a request by the Japan Innovation Party.
Japan Exchange Group announced the Tokyo Stock Exchange will extend trading hours by 30 minutes from November 5th with the new close to be at 15:30 local time (06:30GMT/02:30EDT).
Agricultural Bank of China (1288 HK) Q3 (CNY): Net income 78.48bln, +5.9% Y/Y.
Bank of China (3988 HK) Q3 (CNY): Profit attributable 57.162bln (+4.4% Y/Y); 9M NIM +1.41%.
China Construction Bank (939 HK) Q3 (CNY) Net Income 91.5bln, +3.8% Y/Y, Op. Revenue 177.5bln, -2.7% Y/Y.
MediaTek (2454 TW) Q3 (TWD): Sales 131.8bln, +19.7% Y/Y; sees Q4 sales in 126.5-134.5bln range (exp. 126bln).

DATA RECAP

Australian CPI QQ (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.0%); YY 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.8%)
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%); YY 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.9%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QQ (Q3) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%); YY 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 4.1%)
Australian Weighted CPI YY (Sep) 2.10% vs. Exp. 2.40% (Prev. 2.70%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

Alphabet climbed post-earnings; more mega-caps, UK budget & US refunding ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 02:45 AM

APAC stocks were mostly lower after the mixed performance stateside and as participants braced for this week’s key risk events.
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 1.84), Revenue 88.27bln (exp. 86.31bln). Co. shares were higher by 5.9% after-hours.
European equity futures are indicative of a weaker cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Tuesday.
DXY is steady on a 104 handle, EUR/USD maintains 1.08 status, Cable hovers around the 1.30 mark ahead of the UK budget.
Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP, Spanish CPI, German Unemployment Rate, German GDP, German Inflation, US ADP, PCE Prices/GDP Advance (Q3), Japanese Retail Sales, UK Budget, ECB’s Schnabel, BoC’s Macklem & Rogers, Supply from Italy & US.
Earnings from Eli Lilly, AbbVie, Caterpillar, ADP, Kraft Heinz, Hess, GE HealthCare, Humana, Garmin, Biogen, Bunge, Microsoft, Meta, Amgen, Booking Holdings, Starbucks, DoorDash, MetLife, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Robinhood, Carvana, MGM Resorts, Roku, Next, Standard Chartered, GSK, Airbus, Schneider Electric, Biomerieux, Amundi, Nexans, Worldline, Capgemini, Endesa, Aena, Sandoz, UBS, Volkswagen, BASF.

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

US stocks finished mixed as participants digested a deluge of data and earnings releases with notable outperformance in the Nasdaq heading into key earnings and as Communications and Technology did the heavy lifting, while all other sectors were in the red with Utilities, Energy and Consumer Staples the worst hit. The focus remains largely on earnings with many mega-cap stocks reporting this week and there are also key US data points ahead including GDP, PCE and NFP although the latest releases in the form of US Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings painted a mixed picture.
SPX +0.16% at 5,833, NDX +0.98% at 20,551, DJI -0.36% at 42,233, RUT -0.27% at 2,238.
Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

US Treasury Secretary Yellen said she has been hearing from banks that burdens of regulatory compliance have become quite extraordinary.
Alphabet Inc (GOOGL) Q3 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.12 (exp. 1.84), Revenue 88.27bln (exp. 86.31bln). Google advertising revenue: 65.85bln (exp. 65.5bln), Google Search & Other revenue: 49.39bln (exp. 49.08bln), Google Cloud revenue: 11.35bln (exp. 10.79bln), YouTube ads revenue: 8.92bln (exp. 8.89bln) Co. shares were higher by 5.9% after-hours
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 2024 (USD): adj. EPS 0.92 (exp. 0.92), Revenue 6.82bln (exp. 6.71bln) Co. shares were lower by 7.6% after-hours
Snap Inc (SNAP) Q3 2024 (USD): EPS 0.08 (exp. 0.05), Revenue 1.37bln (exp. 1.36bln). Co. shares were higher by 10.6% after-hours
Visa (V) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 2.71 (exp. 2.58), Revenue 9.6bln (exp. 9.49bln). Co. shares were higher by 1.8% after-hours

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

APAC stocks were mostly lower after the mixed performance stateside and as participants braced for this week’s key risk events including mega-cap earnings in the US and a deluge of data releases.
ASX 200 was pressured by notable weakness in the consumer sectors after Woolworths flagged a challenging fiscal year.
Nikkei 225 bucked the trend and extended above the 39,000 status with the BoJ widely expected to refrain from further policy normalisation when it concludes its 2-day policy meeting tomorrow.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp declined with the former dragged lower by weakness in tech and automakers owing to trade-related headwinds from the threat of higher US tariffs in the event of a Trump election victory next week and after the EU imposed duties on subsidised EVs from China, while the losses in the mainland were initially cushioned following prior reports of a potential fresh fiscal package before eventually succumbing to the broad risk aversion.
US equity futures (ES +0.1%%, NQ +0.1%) were rangebound with mild support from after-market earnings including strong Alphabet results.
European equity futures are indicative of a weaker cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 0.4% on Tuesday.

FX

DXY traded within a tight range after the recent indecisive performance and mixed data in which JOLTS came in beneath all analyst expectations and Consumer Confidence surpassed the top end, while participants are awaiting upcoming key releases and risk events this week including GDP, PCE, NFP, ISM Mfg and corporate earnings, followed by the US election and FOMC next week.
EUR/USD took a breather after recovering from a brief dip beneath the 1.0800 level and ahead of a slew of EU data.
GBP/USD pulled back beneath 1.3000 after yesterday’s mild outperformance with the focus now on the looming Budget.
USD/JPY lacked direction ahead of tomorrow’s BoJ policy announcement with no major fireworks anticipated.
Antipodeans eventually weakened in the aftermath of the mixed CPI data in which the monthly and quarterly headline inflation printed softer than expected but the Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median figures mostly topped forecasts.
SNB Chair Schlegel said the SNB now focuses on normalising of monetary policy and must ensure policy does not become too restrictive, while they remain willing to be active in foreign currency markets as necessary. Schlegel added that further rate reductions could be necessary in the coming quarters to maintain price stability.
BoC Governor Macklem said if the economy evolves broadly in line with their forecast, they anticipate cutting the policy rate further to support demand and keep inflation on target.

FIXED INCOME

10yr UST futures retested the 111.00 level after the prior day’s intraday rebound which was helped by a strong 7yr auction.
Bund futures recouped some of the recent losses but with gains limited ahead of German GDP and CPI data.
10yr JGB futures tracked the recovery in global peers as the BoJ kick-started its 2-day policy meeting.

COMMODITIES

Crude futures mildly gained following the surprise headline crude draw in the latest private sector inventory data but with the upside capped after the prior day’s choppy performance and with risk appetite mostly subdued, while reports suggested some optimism regarding ending the fighting in Lebanon but coincided with Hezbollah launching a new wave of offensive against Israel.
Private Inventory Data (bbls): Crude -0.6mln (exp. +2.2mln), Cushing +0.3mln, Distillate -1.5mln (exp. -1.4mln), Gasoline -0.3mln (exp. +0.5mln).
Kazakhstan is to cut its 2024 oil output target from the current 90.3mln tons, according to the Energy Minister.
Spot gold extended on recent advances to print fresh record highs with USD 2800/oz as the next key target level.
Copper futures were restrained after recent whipsawing and amid the cautious sentiment in the region.

CRYPTO

Bitcoin was choppy with price action indecisive following its recent surge to above the USD 72,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

China responded to US finalised restrictions on Chinese technology in which it called on the US to end the politicisation of economic affairs and hopes the US respects market economy rules, while it sees the US action as damaging to Chinese and American business collaboration.
MOFCOM said China does not agree with or accept the ruling regarding EU tariffs on Chinese EVs and opened proceedings at the WTO, while it noted the EU’s indication it will continue to consult with China on a price commitment plan.
EU imposed duties on unfairly subsidised EVs from China while discussions on price undertakings continue with duties of 17% imposed on BYD, 18.8% on Geely and 35.3% on SAIC. Furthermore, Tesla will be assigned a duty of 7.8% and all other non-cooperating companies will have a duty of 35.3%.
German Economy Ministry said the negotiations with China are complex and have not yet led to a result.
Japanese opposition CDP leader Noda will submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet and asked the Japan Innovation Party to vote for him to become PM, although Noda reportedly declined to respond to a request by the Japan Innovation Party.
Japan Exchange Group announced the Tokyo Stock Exchange will extend trading hours by 30 minutes from November 5th with the new close to be at 15:30 local time (06:30GMT/02:30EDT).

DATA RECAP

Australian CPI QQ (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 1.0%)
Australian CPI YY (Q3) 2.8% vs. Exp. 2.9% (Prev. 3.8%)
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.8%)
Australian RBA Trimmed Mean CPI YY (Q3) 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.9%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI QQ (Q3) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.8% (Prev. 0.8%)
Australian RBA Weighted Median CPI YY (Q3) 3.8% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 4.1%)
Australian Weighted CPI YY (Sep) 2.10% vs. Exp. 2.40% (Prev. 2.70%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

Israeli Chief of Staff said if Iran makes a mistake and launches missiles towards Israel, they will hit strongly the capabilities and places they excluded during the previous strike, according to Sky News Arabia. A separate report also noted that the IDF warned that if Iran attacks again, they will strike back very, very hard.
Israeli minister said the war with Hezbollah will be over by year-end.
Israeli officials cited by Axios noted that Hezbollah is ready to distance itself from Hamas in Gaza and the IDF is close to ending the ground operation in villages in Lebanon that border with Israel, while the army reportedly recommended to PM Netanyahu that the time is right to end the fighting in Lebanon. Furthermore, Haaretz reported the security establishment is unanimous regarding exploiting military achievements in southern Lebanon and Gaza to reach agreements to end the war
US President Biden’s advisers are to visit Israel to try to seal a deal to end the war in Lebanon, according to Axios.
Hezbollah launched a new wave of its offensive against Israel with 19 operations, according to IRNA.
Sirens sounded in several areas of Israel after the launch of surface-to-surface missiles from Lebanon, according to Al Arabiya.

OTHER

Ukraine and Russia are in talks about halting strikes on energy plants, according to FT.
US confirmed a small number of North Korean troops are already in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Yonhap. It was also reported that South Korea’s defence intelligence agency said it is possible some North Korean troops have been deployed on the battlefield in the Ukraine-Russia war and stated that North Korean troops are not ready for drone warfare in the Ukraine-Russia war.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

UK Treasury confirmed the national minimum wage will increase in April to GBP 12.21/hr from GBP 11.44/hr.
UK Chancellor Reeves is to provide armed forces a boost of nearly GBP 3bln in the Budget, according to The Telegraph.
Banks reportedly seek a meeting with the UK Treasury over car finance ruling with executives anxious about risks following a court decision on secret commissions on auto loans, according to FT.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/USA

Pentagon Warns No Limits On Ukraine Support If North Korea Joins War

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 04:15 AM

The United States is warning that it is ready to escalate NATO involvement in Ukraine if North Korean troops join Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Zelensky government has long been lobbying for the US to provide long-range missiles and authorize their use against Russian territory. Kiev might soon gets its wish granted…

“The U.S. will not impose new limits on Ukraine’s use of American weapons if North Korea joins Russia’s war, the Pentagon said on Monday, as NATO said North Korean military units had been deployed to the Kursk region in Russia,” Reuters reports.

Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh on Monday issued a fresh update on the situation. Speaking of a detachment of North Korean troops, she said: “A portion of those soldiers have already moved closer to Ukraine, and we are increasingly concerned that Russia intends to use these soldiers in combat or to support combat operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk Oblast near the border with Ukraine.”

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in separate comments from Europe had claimed that North Koreans are helping Russia regain its territory in southwest Kursk region, following Ukraine’s incursion there which began in early August.

“The deepening military cooperation between Russia and North Korea is a threat to both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic security,” Rutte said at the press conference. “The deployment [of] North Korean troops to Kursk is also a sign of Putin’s growing desperation.” Butte urged: “NATO calls on Russia and the DPRK to cease these actions immediately.”

Ukraine, South Korea, and the United States all say that Pyongyang has sent between 10,000 and 12,000 of its troops to Russia for readiness to fight in Ukraine.

Zelensky’s office has again this week used these reports to call for more immediate military help from Western allies. “This is an escalation. Sanctions alone are not enough. We need weapons and a clear plan to prevent North Korea’s expanded involvement in the war in Europe,” Zelensky’s chief of staff Andriy Yermak has said.

“Today, Russia brings in North Korea; next, it could broaden their engagement, and then other autocratic regimes may see that they can get away with this and come to fight against NATO,” Yermak added. “The enemy understands strength. Our allies have this strength.”

Currently, North Korea’s Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui is in Russia on a state visit. Choe arrived in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok on Tuesday, and is expected to travel to Moscow Wednesday. It’s as yet unclear which leaders in the Russian government she’ll meet with.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851242581017182411

In June, Russian President Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un signed a security and defense treaty in Pyongyang. The Kremlin says this is the basis for troop sharing, but has not said whether North Korean troops are actually in Ukraine at this point.

Over the last several weeks, Ukraine has been warning the West of the presence of North Korean troops in eastern Ukraine, and has claimed that already they’ve suffered casualties. But little of this alleged on the ground battlefield presence has been confirmed.

3C JAPAN

BRICS/

3D. CHINA

Chinese EV Makers Will End An Already Stellar Year With A Continued Sales Surge, Analysts Predict

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 02:45 AM

Despite a massive price war and European nations doing their best to create a trade war, the Chinese EV market still looks like it will easily be crowned the best electric auto market in the world heading into the final months of 2024.

China’s major EV makers ended Q3 stronger than last year, with solid deliveries reducing the need for discounts, according to a new report from Bloomberg.

Now, analysts predict a sales surge in Q4. EV and hybrid sales are booming, driven by expanded subsidies, boosting stock prices and Tesla’s best Chinese quarter. In September, EVs and hybrids made up about 53% of new car sales.

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Joanna Chen commented: “Industry demand has been better than expected since the third quarter following China’s beefed-up subsidies but many automakers still need a major push in the fourth quarter to hit their annual sales targets.”

She continued: “The first nine months usually contribute 70% of annual car sales and automakers below that threshold are under greater pressure to step up discounts in the quarter.”

Bloomberg writes that EV and hybrid sales are soaring, boosted by expanded subsidies encouraging trade-ins of older cars. This policy led to Tesla’s best Chinese quarter, with EVs and hybrids comprising 53% of new car sales in September.

Chinese EV sales are expected to rise further following a recent directive for government agencies to increase purchases of new energy vehicles. For example, Zhejiang Leapmotor, Nio, and Zeekr are thriving through major deals and brand expansions. Top-sellers BYD and Geely are on course to hit ambitious sales targets of 4 million and 2 million, respectively. BYD’s earlier pricing strategies triggered months of market-wide discounting, the article notes.

Yale Zhang, managing director at Shanghai-based consultancy AutoForesight, added: “I do not see a need to launch another price war. Most of them are in pretty good shape. The majority of these NEV or carmakers will reach their volumes.”

The fourth quarter is set for a surge in auto spending, driven by new EV launches and a year-end rush to use trade-in subsidies, according to Yuqian Ding of HSBC Qianhai Securities. Ding’s data shows EVs need fewer discounts, while gas cars maintain peak discounts of about 22%, the highest in three years.

European brands like Volkswagen, Mercedes, and BMW, which had a tough Q3 in China, may resort to deeper price cuts. AutoForesight warns of a potential premium segment price war, with traditional luxury car production down 4% year-over-year, possibly ending 15 years of growth.

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

end

UK Gilt Yields Soar After Reeves Reveals Budget: Market Braces For Inflationary Debt Surge

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 01:05 PM

Ahead of today’s UK budget announcement, much of its content had already been leaked including the biggest novelty item: redefining the concept of debt, to allow the UK – which already exceeds the 90% debt-to-GDP threshold that Reinhart and Rogoff estimated to be the point at which the Keynesian multiplier falls below one and which means that for every extra dollar that the government spends GDP increases by less than one dollar – to borrow an additional $90 billion in debt, a gimmick which only a politician could possibly have though was a good idea (and the US of course, but at least the US still has the reserve currency, something which the UK enjoyed a century ago until it lost it).

And while there were indeed no major surprises, the market clearly was not impressed with what it saw and has sent gilt yields soaring, sparking some concerns that another Sept 2022 “minibudget” crisis may be on the horizon.

But first, here is a snapshot of what we learned:

As Bloomberg reports, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves unveiled £40 billion ($51.8 billion) of tax hikes, the most in decades, and massively ramped up borrowing (largely thanks to the new debt definition), both seismic moves designed to meet Labour’s pledge to “rebuild” the UK that still yielded only modest projected boosts to growth and public spending.

The budget was a make-or-break moment for both Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer that will define their government. The scale was eye-watering, from the extra £142 billion of borrowing over the Parliament to tax rises that were the most in at least 30 years, when former Tory Chancellor Norman Lamont was also trying to restore economic stability. Labour’s inheritance from the Conservatives dominated Reeves’ narrative that offered a glimpse of the likely battle lines ahead of the next election still five years away.

Reeves put the tax burden on course for a postwar high with hikes impacting businesses and the wealthy in particular, insisting she had no choice but to fill a fiscal hole left by her Conservative predecessors if Labour was to deliver on its election pledge to begin a decade of national renewal. To bolster the impression that mostly wealthy people would bear the brunt, Reeves also decided to freeze fuel duty, increased the minimum wage and unexpectedly ended a freeze on income tax thresholds introduced by the Conservatives.

Despite the staggering tax hikes targeting the rich, which will inevitably lead to a scramble of rich expats fleeing the UK for low or no tax regimes such as the UAE, Reeves’ intervention still risked leaving voters unsatisfied. Estimates by the Office for Budget Responsibility appeared to fall short of Labour’s manifesto pledge to have the highest growth in the Group of Seven, and day-to-day public spending will rise just 1.5% per year, with several government departments facing real terms cuts. The question of whether the numbers justify a backlash especially from businesses will dominate the coming weeks.

In her statement, Reeves took aim at the Conservatives and especially former Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt sitting across from her: “The scale and seriousness of the situation that we have inherited cannot be underestimated,” said Reeves, the first female chancellor to deliver a budget in the 800-year history of the role. “Any chancellor standing here today would face this reality, and any responsible chancellor would take action.”

This was duly followed by a slashing of GDP growth estimates, which were cut for the nearby years, offset by the now traditionally increase in outer years, which of course will never happen.

More worrisome is the inflation forecastL while the BoE’s mandate is reconfirmed as 2.0%, the OBR doesn’t see that occurring until well beyond the end of the BoE’s forecast horizon; in fact, the OBR has CPI at 2.0% in 2029.

2024: CPI 2.5%
2025: CPI 2.6%
2026: CPI 2.3%
2027: CPI 2.1%
2028: CPI 2.1%
2029: CPI 2.0%

Of course, the risk is that this is very much incorrect and that UK inflation will not only not drop after 2025 but continue rising, crushing the budgeted model, and forcing the BOE to hike far sooner than expected.

And yes, as we previewed, Reeves also changed the debt measure targeted by the government for its other fiscal rule – which requires debt to be falling as a share of the economy – to give herself space to borrow for investment. The government will now target public sector net financial liabilities instead of public sector net debt excluding the Bank of England, she announced. Here is how UBS described the debt switcheroo:

[Reeves] confirmed the measure of debt will switch to net financial liability. In doing so she is able to pull in a number of assets to the calculation. She said the net financial debt rule will require the measure to be lower in the final year of the horizon relative to the year before. She will reduce the time horizon to three years from five years in 2026/27, and then roll onwards such that debt must be lower in each consecutive year from 28/29 onwards.

But while the public takes its time to assess the social impact of the Labour budget, the market’s reaction was swift and brutal as UK gilt yields soared as traders digested the long-term ramifications of taking on so much debt with a smaller than expected fiscal cushion. After earlier dropping as low as 4.20%, the 10Y Gilt surged over 20bps higher, and briefly touching 4.411%, the highest level since last November.

Curiously, markets were relatively muted while Reeves was speaking, and in fact there was an oddity in the market reaction: the yield low point during the budget speech was achieved at the moment Reeves reported tax hikes would total £40 bn. The market narrative at that moment was on the downside growth consequences. But right after that, bond yields soared as investors balked at the prospect of historically high debt issuance and fiscal stimulus that could mean interest rates stay higher for longer. The Debt Management Office said it will issue £297 billion of government bonds in the fiscal year 2024 to 2025, broadly matching the £293 billion estimated by 16 bond dealers in a Bloomberg survey. Of note, the DMO added £22.2 bn to its funding requirement for the current fiscal year, with the increase funded by additional Gilt sales of £19.2 bn, taking planned total Gilt sales in 2024-25 to £297 bn; and an increase in net (cash) sales of Treasury bills for debt management purposes of £3.0 bn, taking the planned net contribution to financing from such bills in 2024-2025 from zero to £3.0 bn.

The upward move in gilt yields, with shorter-end yields leading, led to a bull flattening indicative of a market reassessing the BOE’s reaction function in the face of greater inflation risks, i.e., not only are the days of rate cuts numbered, but inflation may return much sooner than expected, prompting the next hiking cycle by the BOE.

After the announcement, the UK’s OBR emphasized the fiscal loosening inherent in the budget, continuing the pattern of expansionary government policy in recent years, but the bond market may have had its “lettuce” moment and any incremental debt increases from here on out will only lead to a faster blow out in yields and lead to another debt crisis.

Commenting on the blowout in yields, UBS said that “UK markets opted to focus on the inflationary consequences of tax hikes. The thinking goes that since businesses are doing all the heavy lifting on taxes, that they’ll just pass that on to final selling prices. In that respect, the budget becomes inflationary. The market then talks itself into the idea that the BoE won’t be able to cut rates – they wouldn’t dare say “transitory”, which is what tax effects are on inflation.”

To this UBS counters that the alternative version is one taken from a traditional economic textbook, namely that higher end-prices represent a supply shock that causes spending to slow down; the Swiss bank suggests that the budget should be considered a Gilt twist steepener: “The upfront tax rises causing consumption to slow; the longer-term issuance driving term premium higher. If one wanted to make the link to the BoE, then it would be to buy into the improved long-term growth potential from higher investment in the future.”

Others were less sanguine than UBS, with Bloomberg’s Simon White focusing instead on the overall (catastrophic) fiscal picture that the massive new debt layring will result in; he said that while much focus is on the US’s soaring budget deficit, the UK’s is also egregious. When the current account deficit is added, the US and UK run almost the largest twin deficits in the world.

Indeed, debt has always been the UK’s Achilles’ heel. That’s because while the US has the world’s reserve currency, the UK doesn’t have that privilege, only an ability to print as much of a currency that fewer and fewer people want. That’s potentially very inflationary in the longer term, and that’s precisely why the market is reacting the way it is.

Bottom line, as White puts it, markets are once again waking up to the likelihood that rates in the UK aren’t likely to fall as much previously expected, or the BOE would want, and should the blow out in yields continue, we may be just days away from another emergency QE action by the BOE in the past two years as the world is reminded that the only reason why the US can and continues to borrow like a drunken sailor, is because it still has the world’s reserve currency, although judging by the explosion in gold and bitcoin in recent days, that won’t last long.

END

Beaching of whales and strandings due to prolific increase in wind farms

(zerohedge)

Shocking Rise In Whale, Dolphin, & Porpoise Strandings As Wind Farms Proliferate Around British Coast

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Chris Morrison via DailySceptic.org,

Over the last decade as offshore wind farms proliferated around the U.K., there has been a disturbing rise in coastline strandings of whales, dolphins and porpoises. Since the turn of the century, strandings have more than doubled and are now running at over 1,000 animals a year. The slaughter has been largely ignored by the mainstream media that runs with the agreed narrative that offshore wind is environmentally friendly and is the key to achieving Net Zero by 2050.

In fact, wind turbines, whether on or off the shore, are a clear danger to many endangered species and concerns are mounting about their widespread and harmful effects on the natural world. Years ago, the great cause in environmentalism was to save the whales, but these concerns seem to have abated of late, while the slaughter of millions of onshore bats, along with the destruction of many types of large raptors, is simply ignored.

Andrew Montford of Net Zero Watch has updated his graph on the stranding of U.K. cetaceans and compared it to the rise of offshore wind capacity.

Both totals have soared in recent years. Is there a causal link? Perhaps not one that would inconvenience Net Zero fanatics, but Montford says the suggestion of a causal relationship “remains very strong”.

The Daily Sceptic has reported in the past about the mounting casualties of whales stranded off the north eastern coast of the United States in the wake of massive offshore windfarm construction. There have been around 300 fatalities in the last five years, and many suggest the extensive sonar soundings, pile driving and heavy concentrated vessel traffic is causing havoc with aquatic feeding, breeding and migration up and down the coast.

The latest U.K. stranding figures have been reported to Ascobans, a UN environmental conservation body for cetaceans in the NE Atlantic. Commenting on the “shocking” figures, the environmental writer and campaigner Jason Endfield called them “a wake-up call to those planning to further industrialise our seas in the name of renewable energy, and especially offshore wind farms”. In his view, it made no sense to increase ocean noise to levels that are “literally unbearable for marine mammals”.

The great cover-up of this environmental disaster continues with massive industrial parks being erected around the coasts of many countries. In the U.K., the incoming Labour government is committed to a massive expansion with the Mad Miliband spraying around billions of pounds in additional subsidies to boost an industry that would not exist in a free market.

To the fore in blowing smoke over the issue is Greenpeace USA’s senior oceans campaigner Arlo Hemphill who claims there is “no evidence whatsoever” connecting wind turbines to whale deaths. “It’s just a cynical disinformation campaign,” says another Greenpeace spokesman. The mainstream media often goes along with this narrative as shown by recent tweets from Agence France-Presse reporter Manon Jacob. He dismissed the focus on wind farms as a red herring “when offshore wind remains thus far marginal in the U.S. and scientific evidence of large marine mammal deaths is lacking”. This is the same Jacob who wrote a recent ‘fact check’ of the Daily Sceptic that was so bad and misleading it should feature in future journalism schools as an example of how not to criticise well-sourced material.

The investigative science journalist Jo Nova has a different take on the matter:

“Researchers have known since at least 2013 that pile drivers were permanently deafening porpoises, leaving them presumably to die miserable deaths wandering blindly through dark or murky seas. Where were all the professors of marine science, paid by the public to know these things, and where was the BBC?”

Spread the word, she continued.

Fifty years ago, environmentalists would have raised hell about a thousand dead whales and dolphins. Now they are part of the cover-up. “They don’t want to draw attention to the blubber on the beach in case people start asking hard questions,” she observed.

There are however some signs that the ‘nothing to see here, guv’ line is starting to crack. A recent essay in Watts Up With That? suggested that an impact statement from the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) had finally acknowledged the harm caused by offshore wind farms. Examining leases off the New Jersey and New York coast covering over 488,000 acres, the BOEM hints that these developments are not entirely benign “despite being repeatedly framed as environmentally friendly solutions to the climate crisis”. Marine mammals, sea turtles, birds and fish could suffer due to noise, habitat displacement and changes in migration patterns, it is said. Even bats, says WUWT?, which are not typically associated with offshore environments, could be affected.

The essay noted that this latest BOEM work may signal a more cautious approach, “perhaps influenced by increasing legal challenges, public backlash, and even emerging scientific research indicating that wind turbines are not as harmless as once believed”.

END

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

END

ISRAEL/HEBOLLAH

14 reported killed in separate Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon towns

By AFP and ToI StaffToday, 11:22 pm

Civil defence rescuers search for survivors at the site of an Israeli airstrike on the village of Haret Saida, near Lebanon’s southern city of Sidon, on October 29, 2024. (Mahmoud Zayyat/AFP)

Lebanese authorities report that at least 14 have been killed in two separate Israeli strikes on towns in southern Lebanon.

The health ministry says eight people have been killed in a strike on the southern coastal city of Sarafand.

“The Israeli enemy raid on Sarafand this evening has, according to a provisional toll, left eight dead and 21 wounded,” a ministry statement says, adding that rescue workers are searching for survivors.

An earlier strike further north in a village near Sidon left six dead and 37 wounded, according to a toll from the ministry.

The strike hit a small building, causing significant damage, an AFP correspondent in Haret Saida says, with dozens of rescuers rushing to clear the rubble.

There was no immediate comment from the IDF, which has said it is targeting Hezbollah infrastructure often situated in civilian areas.

END

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/

Israeli tanks said to enter deepest point in southern Lebanon so far in fighting

By AFP and ToI StaffToday, 11:02 pm

IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon, in a handout image published October 23, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Lebanese state media reports that Israeli tanks have entered the outskirts of the village of Khiam, their deepest incursion yet into south Lebanon in a ground operation launched last month.

The official National News Agency reports the entry of “a large number of tanks belonging to the Israeli occupation army” into the eastern outskirts of Khiam, some six kilometers (nearly four miles) from the border with Israel.

Hezbollah claimed to destroy two tanks using guided missiles and to have targeted Israeli troops south and southwest of Khiam with rockets and artillery. Lebanon’s National News Agency says Israeli forces carried out a series of air attacks on Khiam today and launched a large-scale sweep “using heavy and medium weaponry.”

There was no immediate comment from the IDF on any operations in that area.

Earlier today, the IDF said it demolished an underground Hezbollah command center and another bunker where explosives were stored underneath a village in southern Lebanon.

END

ISRAEL /HEZBOLLAH

/PM said meeting on Lebanon diplomatic solution; Hezbollah has lost 80% of its rockets

(TIMES OF ISRAEL)

Defense minister says Lebanese terror group no longer organized enough to fire large volleys at Israel; eight UNIFIL soldiers lightly wounded by Hezbollah rocket fire in Naqoura

By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Lazar Berman, Follow
ToI Staff and AgenciesToday, 9:32 pm

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant (right) meets with Maj. Gen. Ori Gordin (left) at the Northern Command HQ in Safed, October 29, 2024. (Ariel Hermoni/Defense Ministry)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was holding a security consultation on Tuesday evening to discuss a possible diplomatic solution to the fighting in Lebanon, Hebrew media outlets reported, as Defense Minister Yoav Gallant assessed that Hezbollah retains only some 20 percent of the rocket and missile capabilities that it had before the war.

Netanyahu was holding a high-level security consultation on whether to advance terms for ending the conflict with Hezbollah or to expand the ongoing ground operation in southern Lebanon, Channel 12 reported.

The report said that a team headed by Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had drawn up proposed terms under which to end the conflict, and was recommending that Israel should try to do so, capitalizing on its military achievements against Hezbollah in recent weeks.

Along with Netanyahu and Dermer, the other participants the meeting were reportedly Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, Mossad chief David Barnea and Shin Bet head Ronen Bar. The TV report said Halevi strongly recommends seeking a negotiated end to the fighting, and that there is a belief that it is currently possible to advance to a deal in Lebanon in a process separate from the ongoing conflict with Gaza.

The report said that the Dermer team’s recommendations, which were drawn up with input from the security establishment and the Foreign Ministry, include:

An improved version of UN Resolution 1701 (under which the 2006 Lebanon War was brought to an end), requiring Hezbollah fighters to withdraw north of the Litani River.
Heavy deployment of the Lebanese Army at the border.
An international oversight and enforcement mechanism of the agreed terms
Guaranteed freedom of operation for the IDF if there are “threats that need to be removed.”
The prevention of Hezbollah rearming in the future.
A 60-day ceasefire during which the agreement would be finalized.

Smoke rises following an Israeli strike on the village of Ain Baal in southern Lebanon on October 29, 2024. (Kawnat Haju/AFP)

The report said it was not clear whether Netanyahu would choose to adopt the proposal from Dermer, one of his most trusted loyalists. Netanyahu reportedly held a prior consultation with several ministers, including far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, during which Gallant was not present.

If Netanyahu does decide to advance the proposal, this would have implications for Iran and Gaza, the report said without elaboration, and it was likely that the US point man on Lebanon, Amos Hochstein, would return to the region very soon — ahead of the US election next week.

Earlier on Tuesday, senior Israel officials told Ynet that there had been progress on an agreement to end the fighting in Lebanon, where Israeli troops have been carrying out a limited ground operation against Hezbollah assets and operatives in villages close to the Israel-Lebanon border.

The sources also said that the deal, under discussion with international mediators, would see a 60-day “adaptation period” during which the sides would cease fire and work toward implementing UN Resolution 1701.

20% of rockets left

Visiting the IDF Northern Command base in Safed on Tuesday, Gallant appeared to back up the estimation that Israel is close to achieving its goals on the northern front, assessing that Hezbollah was operating at a significantly reduced capacity in comparison to its capabilities one year ago.

“I estimate the remaining capacity of the missiles and rockets to be in the order of 20%, and also it is not organized in the way that it used to be organized, in a way that [Hezbollah] could fire [large] volleys,” he said.

A photo taken from the southern Lebanese city of Tyre shows a series of rockets launched from Lebanon towards Israel on October 17, 2024. (Kawnat Haju/AFP)

“There is a deep connection between our strike in Iran and what is happening to Hezbollah,” he said, referring to Israel’s retaliatory attack on Iranian military bases over the weekend in response to Tehran’s massive ballistic missile attack on October 1.

“Iran understands that Hezbollah does not have the ability to respond, and Hezbollah understands that it cannot rely on Iran,” Gallant added.

Despite the achievement of destroying much of Hezbollah’s rockets, Gallant’s estimate could indicate that the terror group still has tens of thousands of rockets. Estimates before the war put their rocket and missile stockpile at some 150,000 projectiles.

Commander surrenders

Amid the reports that Israel is close to completing the goals of its ground operation in southern Lebanon, the IDF announced on Tuesday evening that the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in southern Lebanon’s Ayta ash-Shab was captured by troops of the Golani Brigade some two weeks ago.

According to the military, Golani troops, with prior intelligence, located a tunnel shaft in a Hezbollah command center in Ayta ash-Shab, where several operatives were holed up.

Among them was the commander of the Hezbollah forces in the village, Hassan Aqil Jawad.

The operatives surrendered to the troops, and they were detained and questioned by field interrogators of the Intelligence Directorate’s Unit 504.

The military releases footage showing Jawad and the other operatives surrendering to the troops.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-said-meeting-on-lebanon-diplomatic-solution-hezbollah-has-lost-80-of-its-rockets

https://customer-b1ezbl4fz7l5vj5n.cloudflarestream.com/671e09d9f765e01f45a5f523900206e2/iframe

The IDF says the operatives were later brought to Israel for further interrogation.

“In the interrogation of the terrorists, they detailed many terror infrastructures that are located in the area of Ayta ash-Shab. These findings helped the forces on the ground to locate and destroy the terror infrastructure in a targeted manner and to prepare for threats in the area,” the IDF said.

It added that several more Hezbollah operatives were detained and questioned during operations in southern Lebanon in recent weeks.

Tanks advancing north

Meanwhile, Lebanese state media said on Tuesday that Israeli tanks had rolled into the outskirts of the village Khiam, their deepest incursion yet into southern Lebanon since the start of the ground operation last month.

The country’s official National News Agency reported the entry of “a large number of tanks belonging to the Israeli occupation army” into the eastern outskirts of Khiam, some six kilometers (nearly four miles) from the border with Israel.

Hezbollah, for its part, claimed that it had targeted Israeli troops south and southwest of the village with rocket and artillery fire.

There was no immediate comment from the IDF.

The large town of Khiam holds symbolic significance, as it was home to a notorious prison run by the South Lebanon Army during Israel’s occupation of southern Lebanon, which lasted from 1982-2000.

UNIFIL soldiers injured in Hezbollah rocket strike

Elsewhere in Lebanon, Austria’s defense ministry said on Tuesday that eight Austrian soldiers belonging to the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) sustained slight and superficial injuries in a rocket strike on the force’s headquarters in Naqoura.

The strike, which set a vehicle workshop on fire, was likely launched by Hezbollah “or an affiliated group,” UNIFIL said.

Lebanese army soldiers and members of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) patrol near the southern Lebanese village of Marjayoun on October 29, 2024. (Rabih Daher/AFP)

“We remind Hezbollah and all actors of their obligations to ensure the safety and security of UN personnel and property, the UN body said in a statement on the incident. “Any deliberate attack on them is a grave violation of international humanitarian law and of Resolution 1701.”

The peacekeeping force said it had opened an investigation into the rocket fire.

The IDF later confirmed that the Naqoura base was indeed hit by a Hezbollah rocket.

According to the military, the rocket was launched by the terror group from the Hallousiyyeh al-Faouqa area, in the Tyre District.

“The Hezbollah terror group continues to systematically violate international law, and poses a threat to the residents of the State of Israel and international forces in the region,” the IDF said.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-said-meeting-on-lebanon-diplomatic-solution-hezbollah-has-lost-80-of-its-rockets/

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1851317420419362870

The Austrian defense ministry condemned the attack “in the strongest possible terms” and demanded an immediate investigation.

Austria contributes about 180 soldiers to the 10,000-strong force. They are part of a “Multi Role Logistic Unit” that performs roles like transporting goods and personnel, repairing vehicles, supplying fuel and firefighting.

UNIFIL has accused the IDF of injuring its forces on several occasions, while Israel has called for peacekeepers to withdraw from the battle zones until Israel’s ground campaign against Hezbollah is over, saying that the proximity of Hezbollah posts to UN peacekeepers and members of the Lebanese army has led to several accidental strikes on the latter two groups.

Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis since October 8, 2023, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.

Firefighters work to extinguish a blaze after rockets launched from Lebanon into northern Israel hit the moshav of Dalton, October 29, 2024. (David Cohen/Flash90)

Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group.

The attacks on northern Israel since October 2023 have resulted in the deaths of 32 civilians. In addition, 60 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon in late September.

Two soldiers have been killed in a drone attack from Iraq, and there have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.

The IDF estimates that more than 2,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the conflict. Around 100 members of other terror groups, along with hundreds of civilians, have also been reported killed in Lebanon.

END

Hezbollah has named 516 members who have been killed by Israel amid the fighting, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. These numbers have not been consistently updated since Israel began a new offensive against Hezbollah in September.

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS/UNRWA

Banning UNRWA: Historic move or humanitarian crisis in the making? – editorial

Following the landmark Knesset vote, we urge the prime minister to consult with Israel’s allies and convene a panel of experts to do just that.

By JPOST EDITORIALOCTOBER 30, 2024 05:54Updated: OCTOBER 30, 2024 06:59

THE SIGN on UNRWA Headquarters in Gaza City is damaged amid the ongoing war. Says the writer: This UN agency deserves every sanction – it is corrupt, its actions encouraged terror and some of its workers were directly involved in October 7. Yet it provides health, education, etc. (photo credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters) — THE SIGN on UNRWA Headquarters in Gaza City is damaged amid the ongoing war. Says the writer: This UN agency deserves every sanction – it is corrupt, its actions encouraged terror and some of its workers were directly involved in October 7. Yet it provides health, education, etc.(photo credit: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters)

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While there was a rare consensus on the first day of the Knesset winter session to outlaw UNRWA, the UN agency founded in 1949 to service Palestinian refugees, the international community, including Israel’s closest allies, swiftly condemned the move.

The two government-sponsored bills to outlaw UNRWA presented by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman Yuli Edelstein (Likud) passed 92-10, with support from opposition parties National Unity, Yisrael Beytenu, and Yesh Atid.

As The Jerusalem Post’s political correspondent Eliav Breuer reported, the first bill states that UNRWA will no longer “operate any institution, provide any service, or conduct any activity, whether directly or indirectly” in Israel, while the second bill states that the treaty between Israel and UNRWA, signed after the Six Day War in 1967, will expire within seven days of the Knesset vote, and henceforth no Israeli government agencies or representatives may contact UNRWA or any of its representatives.

Edelstein hailed the “elimination of one of the arms of terror that acted under UN auspices,” calling the passage of the legislation historic. “UNRWA long ago ceased to be a humanitarian aid agency, but in addition to it being an integral supporter of terror and hate, [it] is an agency to eternalize poverty and suffering,” he declared.

(L-R): UN Chief Antonio Guterres and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu seen over UNIFIL vehicles in Lebanon (illustrative) (credit: REUTERS/ATHIT PERAWONGMETHA, SHUTTERSTOCK)

Criticisms pour in

UN Secretary-General António Guterres led most of the world in denouncing the legislation.

“I am deeply concerned by the adoption today by the Knesset of Israel of two laws concerning UNRWA, which, if implemented, would likely prevent UNRWA from continuing its essential work in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem, as mandated by the UN General Assembly,” he said in a statement.

“UNRWA is the principal means by which essential assistance is supplied to Palestine refugees… There is no alternative to UNRWA.”

Among those agreeing with Guterres was Israel’s closest ally, the United States, which said the decision could force UNRWA to halt all its operations in Gaza, the West Bank, and east Jerusalem.

“Implementing the legislation risks catastrophe for the more than 3 million Palestinians who rely on UNRWA for essential services, including health care and primary and secondary education,” the State Department said. “We urge the government of Israel to pause and further consider implementation of this legislation to ensure UNRWA can effectively carry out its mission and facilitate humanitarian assistance.”

Israel’s longstanding opposition to UNRWA, which it argues has historically perpetuated the Palestinian refugee crisis and more recently allowed Hamas to embed itself within the agency’s infrastructure, has climaxed in the year since October 7, 2023.

Nurit Yohanan, the Palestinian affairs correspondent for KAN, cautioned on X/Twitter that the ban, in practice, applies to only one refugee camp in Jerusalem – Shuafat – and the UN headquarters in Armon Hanatziv.

“The version of the UNRWA law that was approved tonight” applies only “‘in the sovereign state of Israel’ – meaning that UNRWA will be able to continue operating in east Jerusalem and Gaza.”

While Monday’s vote in the Knesset was necessary from Israel’s point of view, the real question now is: what alternative to UNRWA can Israel accept? UNRWA has provided aid, schooling, healthcare, and assistance across the Palestinian territories for more than seven decades. An estimated 2 million Palestinians are currently displaced, and the Gaza Strip is now experiencing extreme shortages of food, water, and medicine.

The official Israeli position was presented by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “UNRWA workers involved in terrorist activities against Israel must be held accountable,” he said.

“Since avoiding a humanitarian crisis is also essential, sustained humanitarian aid must remain available in Gaza now and in the future. In the 90 days before this legislation takes effect – and after – we stand ready to work with our international partners to ensure Israel continues to facilitate humanitarian aid to civilians in Gaza in a way that does not threaten Israel’s security.”

Following the landmark Knesset vote, we urge the prime minister to consult with Israel’s allies and convene a panel of experts to do just that.

END

ISRAEL LEBANON/HEZBOLLAH

US Ambassador To Lebanon Promotes ‘Internal Uprising’ To Assist Israel: Report

Tuesday, Oct 29, 2024 – 07:40 PM

Via The Cradle

A high-ranking Lebanese security source revealed to Al-Akhbar newspaper that the US Ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, is continuing her agenda to prepare Lebanon for a “post-Hezbollah era” by mobilizing “internal” forces against the resistance movement while it fights the Israeli Army.

In discussions with Lebanese politicians, Johnson reportedly said, “Israel cannot achieve everything through war; it’s time for you to do your part and launch an internal uprising under the banner of ‘Enough.’“

The ambassador added, “The Lebanese people must show their desire to rise up and get rid of Hezbollah and return to the context that emerged after the assassination of Rafik Hariri, especially since the regional, international, and field circumstances are in your favor.”

According to the source, the ambassador asked the politicians, “Why do you seem afraid? Hezbollah has been defeated, its leadership is destroyed, and we are with you, and the entire free world stands by your side.”

Johnson encouraged her Lebanese allies to advocate for the election of Lebanese Armed Forces Commander General Joseph Aoun as President of Lebanon, saying, “He (Aoun) will appoint a strong commander for the Lebanese Army, and we will support the Army in restraining all Hezbollah supporters. You will have backing from Arab states and the West. But the time to act is now.”

According to the high-level Lebanese security source, Ambassador Johnson’s allies are conducting incitement operations to stoke internal sectarian tensions in areas where displaced persons, mostly Shia from Beirut’s southern suburbs and the south of Lebanon, are now staying after fleeing their homes due to Israeli bombing.

Lebanon’s society is multi-confessional and multi-national, making the country susceptible to division by outside forces. Lebanon is comprised of Christians (Catholic and Orthodox), Muslims (Sunni and Shia), Druze, and Palestinian and Syrian refugees.

Civil war engulfed Lebanon’s multifaceted society between 1975 to 1990. An estimated 150,000 people were killed.

The source speaking with Al-Akhbar added that “mobilization operations” are being carried out in some neighborhoods and areas controlled by the Lebanese Forces, a right-wing Christian political party, under the pretext of “protecting our areas from the chaos of the displaced and so that they do not turn into occupiers.”

In an effort to weaken Hezbollah, Johnson has also begun calling on politicians, civil organizations, and media professionals with whom she has influence to drive a wedge between Lebanon’s Shia community and Hezbollah.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851327205944479900

The source said that Johnson has clearly stated her wish to take advantage of the current Israeli war to completely eliminate Hezbollah, not only militarily but politically as well.

“We do not only want to limit Hezbollah’s influence, but we will strike its support lines, and we are working non-stop to bring down the regime in Iran as well,” Johnson reportedly said.

END

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/HAMAS

IAF strikes rocket launcher that fired at Ma’alot-Tarshiha, pounds Hezbollah across Lebanon

The Hezbollah rocket killed 24-year-old Israeli Arab Mohammad Naim and wounded several others.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 30, 2024 07:57Updated: OCTOBER 30, 2024 08:15

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3791691&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826757IAF strikes in southern Lebanon. October 30, 2024. (Credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT).

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https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-826757

Israel Air Force (IAF) jets struck the Hezbollah rocket launcher from which rockets were fired toward Ma’alot-Tarshiha in northern Israel on Tuesday, the military said on Wednesday.

The Hezbollah rocket killed 24-year-old Israeli-Arab Mohammad Naim and wounded several others.

The military added that the IAF struck some 100 targets belonging to the terror group throughout Lebanon.

In southern Lebanon, troops of the 146th Division located weapons and attacked dozens of targets, including anti-tank missile launchers and military structures.

In parallel, soldiers of the 91st Division demolished shafts and eliminated terrorists. Troops also found maps that outlined the shooting of projectiles toward Israeli territory, the military noted.

IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip. October 30, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT) — IDF troops operate in the Gaza Strip. October 30, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

The IDF also affirmed that the soldiers unearthed many weapons and launchers embedded in civilian areas that were directed toward Israel.

IDF operates in the Gaza Strip

In the Gaza Strip, troops of the 162 Division carried out activities in Jabalya, in northern Gaza, eliminating terrorists in close-quarters combat and via aircraft.

In central Gaza and the south of the Strip, troops destroyed terror ordnances and killed terrorists, the military added.

END

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH./LATE THIS AFTERNOON

Lebanon ceasefire draft revealed: IDF withdrawal within a week, US supervision – report

The main points attributed to this draft outline that from the moment of signing, UN Resolution 1701 will be recognized and brought into full effect.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 30, 2024 20:38

UN "blue line" notifications are pictured near the Lebanese-Israeli border as seen from the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon October 14, 2022. (photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS) — UN “blue line” notifications are pictured near the Lebanese-Israeli border as seen from the southern Lebanese village of Kfar Kila, Lebanon October 14, 2022.(photo credit: AZIZ TAHER/REUTERS)

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The draft of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was revealed on Wednesday evening by Israeli state broadcaster KAN.

The document, allegedly drafted by Amos Hochstein, has reportedly been presented to Israel’s political establishment.

The main points attributed to this draft outline that, from the moment of signing, UN Resolution 1701 will be recognized and brought into full effect, specifically that Hezbollah and other armed groups in the area will not take action against Israel, according to KAN.

The report stated that the Lebanese Armed Forces would be the only armed body in southern Lebanon other than UNIFIL.

Additionally, Israel would not carry out offensive operations in Lebanon, including those against military and government targets.

UNIFIL vehicles drive in the southern Lebanese town of Qlayaa, near the border with Israel, last Saturday. (credit: Karamallah Daher/Reuters)

The Lebanese government will supervise any weapons sales to Lebanon or weapons production, the draft added.

Additionally, according to the draft, Israel would have to withdraw from southern Lebanon within one week.

It would reportedly be replaced by the Lebanese Armed Forces, which would be supervised by the US and other international bodies.

END

ISRAEL/IRAN

Report: Israel took out most of Iran’s air defenses, left it ‘essentially naked’

Illustrative: A Russian-made S-300 air defense system sits on display at Baharestan Square in Tehran, Iran, September 24, 2017. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi, File)

The four Russian-made S-300 air defense systems that Israel has reportedly destroyed in strikes on Iran this year — one in April, and three more this month — had been the only such systems possessed by the Islamic Republic as of the beginning of this year, Fox News reports.

The Wall Street Journal has similarly reported that all of Iran’s existing S-300 batteries have now been disabled.

Fox News quotes an unnamed senior Israeli official as saying that “the majority of Iran’s air defense was taken out.”

It quotes US President Joe Biden’s senior Mideast adviser Amos Hochstein as saying on an internal call that “Iran is essentially naked” and vulnerable to potential future aerial attacks.

Israel has previously been reported to have also taken out other air defenses surrounding key energy facilities, as well as hitting drone-producing sites and key long-range missile-production facilities containing solid fuel mixers that will take at least a year to replace, hampering Iran’s ability to repeat its two missile attacks on Israel this year.

Fox News adds that Israel also struck radar systems used to guide such missiles during the attacks on the Jewish state.

end

ISRAEL/IRAN/PROXIES

Between proxies and a new attack on Israel: Iran’s dilemma – analysis

Iran operates via proxies in several countries and territories, including Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq, and the Gaza Strip.

By SETH J. FRANTZMANOCTOBER 30, 2024 10:50

THE FLAGS (from right) of Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon are on display in Tehran. The Lebanese people should not allow Iran to build a Shi’ite crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea; they should stop suffering for the sake of Hezbollah, the writer urges. (photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS) — THE FLAGS (from right) of Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon are on display in Tehran. The Lebanese people should not allow Iran to build a Shi’ite crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea; they should stop suffering for the sake of Hezbollah, the writer urges.(photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

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Iran’s response to the Israeli strikes on Iran on October 26 has been complex. It has sought to downplay the damage while claiming it may respond at the “appropriate” time. It has also sought to rally international support for its position. Iran’s messaging is mixed, claiming it does not want war but reserving a “right” to respond.

Iran likes to be in this position where the ball is in its court regarding the regional battlefield. It’s worth recalling that it did the same thing in April and between July and October 2024. Essentially, Iran has learned that keeping the region on edge is to its benefit.

As Iran bides its time, it is also continuing to empower proxies in the region. Iranian state media brags about the successes of its proxies in attacks against Israel and also threats against the US. For instance, Iranian state media claimed that a US base at Tanf in Syria was targeted earlier this week. The implication is that Iranian-backed militias were behind the attack.

At the same time, Iranian media has claimed that Hezbollah has carried out a wave of attacks throughout the week of October 27. Every day has seen Hezbollah rocket fire striking northern Israel. This has led to deaths and injuries in Majd al-Krum, Tamra, and Tarshiha. In the morning of October 30 a long range missile was also fired from Lebanon. In addition, several drone attacks were launched.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar attends a rally marking the 35th anniversary of the movement's founding, in Gaza City December 14, 2022. (credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS) — Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar attends a rally marking the 35th anniversary of the movement’s founding, in Gaza City December 14, 2022. (credit: IBRAHEEM ABU MUSTAFA/REUTERS)

Iran’s multiple fronts

Iran is also focused on the Gaza front. Iranian media says that numerous Israeli soldiers have been killed in Gaza. Iran wants to believe that Hamas is continuing successful attacks on the IDF in Gaza, even as Hamas suffers many setbacks.

On the Yemen front, it appears the Houthis are also trying to increase attacks. Brigadier General Yahya Saree, in a statement, emphasized that in the framework of the 5th stage of the battle, the Yemeni drone unit, in a unique operation, targeted the industrial zone of the Zionist enemy in Ashkelon in the south of the occupied territories,” Iran’s IRNA media reported this week. The group has used drones and other means in its attacks.“The Yemeni Armed Forces had conducted three operations against three ships in the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea, and the Bab el-Mandeb,” the report said. The group targeted three ships: SC Montreal, Maersk Kowloon and Motaro. The Houthis used drones, a cruise missile, and ballistic missiles in the attacks.

According to another report, Iraqi militias also carried out an attack targeting Israel using a drone. This illustrates that Iran has mobilized all the fronts against Israel in the wake of the October 26 airstrikes. As Iran weighs its direct response, it wants to keep up the pressure from Yemen, Gaza, Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. Iran openly brags about these attacks.

end

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

Hezbollah’s military is weakened, but its civil branches are deeply embedded in Lebanon

Terror group likely to feel pinch after strikes on banking arm, but its network of charities is too entrenched in Lebanon’s Shiite community to be extracted easily, expert says

By Gianluca Pacchiani FollowToday, 12:48

Demonstrators hold up Hezbollah terror group flags and shout slogans against Israel and the United States during a protest in solidarity with the Palestinian people in Gaza as Israel battles Hamas there, in Beirut, Lebanon, March 2, 2024. (AP Photo/Hassan Ammar)

Last week, Israel’s military launched a series of airstrikes across Lebanon targeting branches of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, an unlicensed credit association considered to be Hezbollah’s bank.

The sorties marked a shift from strikes against military objectives alone to targeting infrastructure ostensibly in the civilian realm, underlining the challenges posed by the terror group’s deep integration in Lebanese society.

Due to its networks of welfare organizations, clinics, and extensive patronage system among Shiites, extricating Hezbollah from Lebanon’s civil fabric could prove a more complicated and daunting task than destroying the Iran-backed group’s military capabilities.

The Hezbollah that existed before the launch of the ground offensive no longer exists, “but it still is dangerous and it’s not going to disappear,” Hezbollah expert Matthew Levitt told The Times of Israel in a recent phone conversation.

“Hezbollah really is a movement. It’s not just a terrorist organization, or a militia, or a political party. It’s also deeply involved in social and religious activities,” said Levitt, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and former FBI counterterrorism expert.

Hezbollah’s military capabilities are weakened and ostensibly crumbling. Last week, the IDF said it had killed over 2,000 members of the Iran-backed group since October 2023, including many of its commanders, and destroyed about 70-80% of the rockets it possessed before the war. It also said it defeated Hezbollah’s forces in every area where its troops operated in southern Lebanon.

And while the terror group recently appointed a new leader, Naim Qassem, to replace its slain Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, it is not clear who is leading the terror groups’ military strategy on the ground.

However, “much of Hezbollah’s social welfare infrastructure remains intact, because the IDF is targeting its weapons caches and command and control centers. They are not targeting Hezbollah-run medical clinics and welfare programs,” Levitt said.

Demonstrators hold pictures of Hassan Nasrallah, late leader of the Lebanese terror group Hezbollah, during a protest vigil in the southern Lebanese city of Sidon on September 28, 2024. (Mahmoud ZAYYAT / AFP)

The Hezbollah expert described the terror group’s wide range of social activities as a “shadow governance,” providing critical services to a country long on the brink of financial and political collapse, plagued by perennial corruption and sectarian strife. This has created a “shadow constituency” dependent on its assistance, Levitt said.

“Hezbollah today has the best of both worlds – it is part of the Lebanese state, with members holding cabinet positions and seats in parliament, but remains an independent group that operates apart from the state,” Levitt wrote in a recent article for the Washington Institute. Thus, “it avoids the accountability that typically comes with holding elected office.”

Hezbollah’s vast network of charities

The financial group Al-Qard Al-Hassan, or AQAH, was founded by Hezbollah in 1983, one year after the terror group’s establishment, to provide interest-free loans in line with Islamic principles. Over the years, AQAH grew into a major financial institution with branches throughout Hezbollah strongholds in Lebanon.

A man rides a moped past the site of an overnight IDF airstrike that targeted a branch of the Al-Qard Al-Hassan group that Israel and the US say finances Hezbollah, in Beirut’s southern suburbs on October 21, 2024. (AFP)

The US blacklisted AQAH in 2007, saying Hezbollah uses it as a cover to manage the group’s financial activities and gain access to the international financial system.

However, Hezbollah’s civilian infrastructure extends far beyond, constituting a system of patronage that fills the gaps left by the inefficient Lebanese government and strengthens its clout over the country’s Shiite community of some 2 million, effectively creating a Shiite “mini-state.”

It includes a network of medical centers known as the Islamic Health Organization, which provides healthcare services for free or at a reduced cost to Shiites, while also treating wounded Hezbollah fighters, according to the Israeli Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center.

In 2021, Hezbollah also launched the Al-Sajjad supermarket chain, named after a revered figure in Shiite Islam. These supermarkets sell products (often of Iranian, Syrian or Iraqi origin) at significantly reduced prices for customers who present Hezbollah-issued cards.

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Additionally, Hezbollah controls a chain of gas stations, the Amana Petroleum Company, which sells Iranian fuel at discounted rates, sometimes in defiance of the Lebanese government. It has been under US sanctions since 2020.

Hezbollah’s construction arm, Jihad al-Bina, was instrumental in rebuilding areas destroyed in the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Today, the foundation, established in 1988, manages various large-scale projects in civil engineering, agriculture, and industry, and runs vocational training centers, according to the Meir Amit Center.

On the propaganda front, Hezbollah runs its own TV channel, Al-Manar, and various educational programs, including a youth group known as the Mahdi Scouts, used to indoctrinate young Shiites, according to the IDF.

The terror group also claims to be involved in environmental sustainability. It operates Green Without Borders, a nonprofit, which claims to manage reforestation projects in southern Lebanon. According to Israel, the group actually provides cover to Hezbollah positions; it was sanctioned by the US for alleged terror activities last year.

An installation of the Lebanese agricultural NGO ‘Green Without Borders’ that the IDF says serves as an observation outpost for Hezbollah on the Israeli-Lebanese border, publicized on June 22, 2017. (Israel Defense Forces/File)

Hezbollah’s financial struggles

Last week, the IDF revealed that it had located a Hezbollah bunker under a Beirut hospital. Inside, the army said, was more than $500 million in gold and cash being stored by the terror group.

Despite its fortune, though, Hezbollah is reportedly undergoing a liquidity crisis, with the IDF’s airstrikes on branches of AQAH likely adding to the growing financial strain on the Iranian proxy.

Lebanese and foreign sources cited in a recent Voice of America report claimed Hezbollah was running out of cash and unable to pay its members. Its access to Lebanon’s formal banking system is also reportedly curtailed, as the country’s wealthiest bankers have fled abroad, fearing they could be targeted next by Israel for helping Hezbollah, according to VOA.

Until recently, the terror group was awash in cash, thanks to Iranian money transfers and its own illicit activities — chief among them its vast international drug smuggling network, according to experts. Hezbollah used that liquidity to keep its Shiite constituents happy, handing out monthly stipends in stable foreign currency.

A Shiite woman who recently evacuated from south Lebanon to Beirut told The Guardian that the group had doled out monthly cash payments of $200, as well as food parcels, praising them for “taking incredible care” of her family.

It is not clear how long Hezbollah will be able to continue disbursing those payments. The social welfare network also faces a labor shortage, as many of Hezbollah’s members whose day jobs were in its charities have been called up to fight or are incapacitated due to injuries sustained in pager and walkie-talkie explosions in September.

Furthermore, the displacement of over a million people from Shiite-majority areas in southern Lebanon and elsewhere has put additional pressure on the informal welfare system.

“This is going to be another significant layer of demands at a time of diminishing resources and competing demands for those resources,” Levitt said.

Families sit on the ground in Beirut’s Martyrs’ square after fleeing airstrikes on the Lebanese capital’s southern suburbs, September 28, 2024. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

Will Hezbollah turn its weapons against the Lebanese?

As Israel works to dismantle Hezbollah’s military and financial capabilities, the terror group may resort to using guns instead of butter to maintain its grip over Lebanon, Levitt warned. The group has a long history of using violence to suppress its critics.

With Iran’s backing, the terror group is likely to attempt to rearm and refill its coffers at the earliest opportunity. It remains unclear whether the international community would be able to step in and keep Tehran’s influence from infiltrating Lebanon, and whether the Lebanese Armed Forces would be capable of reasserting sovereignty and a state monopoly over the legitimate use of force, Levitt said.

“Hezbollah will fight hard to prevent it,” he predicted, “and it will still have the means to do so even after Israel removes a significant proportion of its strategic threat.”

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH

80,000 Evacuate Ancient Lebanese City Of Baalbek As Israel Unleashes Huge Airstrikes

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 11:25 AM

Huge Israeli airstrikes rocked Lebanon’s eastern city of Baalbek on Wednesday, nearly 70km northeast of Beirut, after Israel warned some 80,000 residents to evacuate.

It was the first such call to evacuate on such a large scale from Israel’s military (IDF) in this location (and so far north, significantly away from frontlines in southern Lebanon) since the war began, and main roads out of the city have been jammed and chaotic throughout the day.

“The city is almost empty,” an AFP correspondent described soon after the evacuation warning. Prior bombings in the same area (Bekaa Valley) left at least 60 people dead on Monday.

The IDF published a map alongside the warning to evacuate which included the entire extended city situated in the eastern Bekaa Valley – long known as a Hezbollah stronghold.

“The (Israeli army) will act forcefully against Hezbollah interests within your city and villages,” an Israeli military spokesman said on X.

The fresh Wednesday air raids on Baalbek, an ancient city and UNESCO site with many Roman ruins, began within just minutes after newly named Hezbollah chief, Sheikh Naim Qassem, started speaking in his first address as the Iran-backed paramilitary group’s Secretary-General.

Qassem’s theme for the speech focused on readiness of the group to keeping the fight going so long as Israel is on Lebanese territory. “Final victory will be ours,” he proclaimed as part of the nearly hour-long pre-recorded video speech from an undisclosed location.

He spoke in front of a large image of his assassinated predecessor Hassan Nasrallah who had for decades been the much more recognizable face of Hezbollah behind him.

Importantly, after the many serious losses and setbacks for the group going back to the mass pager attack of September, and Israel soon after taking out Nasrallah and his number two leader Hashem Safieddine along with top officers, new Secretary-General Qassem is now vowing “we can keep fighting for days, weeks and months.”

Huge fireball from Israeli strike seen over Baalbek:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851631188248494517

According to more from the speech:

Qassem said Nasrallah was like a brother to him, and assassinated leader Hashem Safieddine was a man upon whom Nasrallah could heavily rely on. He described killed Hamas chief Yahya Sinwar as “an icon of heroism and Palestinian resistance and the free people of the world”.

Qassem vowed that under his leadership, Hezbollah will continue the work of Nasrallah and keep fighting a war with Israel while following the same political path. “Helping Gaza is our duty and we will defend it to counter the Israeli threat for the entire region.”

As for the ongoing strikes on a large area of Baalbek, one regional reporter has called it a “kill zone”.

“This is a significant chunk of Baalbek that has been put under these evacuation orders and let’s call evacuation orders what they are. They’re effectively a kill zone – if you remain behind, Israel says that you are a fair target,” an AJ journalist base in Beirut writes.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851621861395755083

“Now, that despite the fact that Israel does have under international humanitarian law a responsibility to any civilians left behind after they give those orders, but people are taking them seriously,” he continues.

Southern Lebanon has also remained scene of heavy ground finding amid the IDF ground offensive, with 15 Lebanese reported killed on attacks in Sarafand and Haret Saida near Sidon city.

Lebanese authorities does not distinguish between identifying combatants and civilians when it publishes casualties. Since the war’s start, Israel says that 33 of its soldiers have been killed in Lebanon.

end

ISRAEL/HAMAS

IDF eliminates Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi, Radwan Force deputy commander

The strike was carried out based on precise intelligence information, the IDF added.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFOCTOBER 30, 2024 14:11Updated: OCTOBER 30, 2024 15:15

DF troops operate in the Gaza Strip. October 28, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi, Hezbollah's Radwan force deputy commander, was eliminated in an IAF airstrike in Nabatieh in Lebanon, October 30, 2024. (photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT) — Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi, Hezbollah’s Radwan force deputy commander, was eliminated in an IAF airstrike in Nabatieh in Lebanon, October 30, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-826819&unitId=2900003088&userId=0825748c-83eb-4fa6-9d99-5d5781551d74&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241029_144f805a0edf4b0e07d15d558838209e93a0670f&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israel Air Force jets eliminated Mustafa Ahmad Shahadi, Hezbollah’s Radwan force deputy commander, in a strike in Nabatieh in Lebanon, the military said on Wednesday.

The strike was carried out based on precise intelligence information, the IDF added.

Shahadi was responsible for conducting terror activities against Israel, the military said.

Responsible for the unit’s terror activities in southern Lebanon

Shahadi was also responsible for the Radwan forces’ operations during the terror group’s combat in Syria between the years 2012-2017.

He also managed the unit’s terror activities in southern Lebanon.

IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. October 28, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON'S UNIT) — IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. October 28, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)

“The Radwan unit is the elite unit of the Hezbollah terrorist organization whose goal is to infiltrate into Israeli territory and occupy areas near the northern border. The IDF will continue to operate against the terrorists and commanders of the Hezbollah terrorist organization and any threat posed to the citizens of Israel,” the IDF said.

END

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

end

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

The Most Devastating COVID Report So Far

Tuesday, Oct 29, 2024 – 10:10 PM

Authored by Jayanta Bhattacharya via The Brownstone Institute,

The House report on HHS Covid propaganda is devastating. The Biden administration spent almost $1 billion to push falsehoods about Covid vaccines, boosters, and masks on the American people. If a pharma company had run the campaign, it would have been fined out of existence.

HHS engaged a PR firm, the Fors Marsh Group (FMG), for the propaganda campaign.

The main goal was to increase Covid vax uptake.

The strategy:

1. Exaggerate Covid mortality risk

2. Downplay the fact that there was no good evidence that the Covid vax stops transmission.

The propaganda campaign extended beyond vax uptake and included exaggerating mask efficacy and pushing for social distancing and school closures.

Ultimately, since the messaging did not match reality, the campaign collapsed public trust in public health.

The PR firm (FMG) drew most of its faulty science from the CDC’s “guidance,” which ignored the FDA’s findings on the vaccine’s limitations, as well as scientific findings from other countries that contradicted CDC groupthink.

The report details the CDC’s mask flip-flopping through the years. It’s especially infuriating to recall the CDC’s weird, anti-scientific, anti-human focus on masking toddlers with cloth masks into 2022.

President Biden’s Covid advisor Ashish K. Jha waited until Dec. 2022 (right after leaving government service) to tell the country that “[t]here is no study in the world that shows that masks work that well.” What took him so long?

In 2021, former CDC director, Rochelle Walensky rewrote CDC guidance on social distancing at the behest of the national teachers’ union, guaranteeing that schools would remain closed to in-person learning for many months.

During this period, the PR firm FMG put out ads telling parents that schools would close unless kids masked up, stayed away from friends, and got Covid-vaccinated.

In March 2021, even as the CDC told the American people that the vaxxed did not need to mask, the PR firm ran ads saying that masks were still needed, even for the vaxxed. “It’s not time to ease up” we were told, in the absence of evidence any of that did any good.

In 2021, to support the Biden/Harris administration’s push for vax mandates, the PR firm pushed the false idea that the vax stopped Covid transmission. When people started getting “breakthrough” infections, public trust in public health collapsed.

Later, when the FDA approved the vax for 12 to 15-year-old kids, the PR firm told parents that schools could open in fall 2021 only if they got their kids vaccinated. These ads never mentioned side effects like myocarditis due to the vax.

HHS has scrubbed the propaganda ads from this era from its web pages. It’s easy to see why. They are embarrassing. They tell kids, in effect, that they should treat other kids like biohazards unless they are vaccinated.

When the Delta variant arrived, the PR firm doubled down on fear-mongering, masking, and social distancing.

In September 2021, CDC director Walensky overruled the agency’s external experts to recommend the booster to all adults rather than just the elderly. The director’s action was “highly unusual” and went beyond the FDA’s approval of the booster for only the elderly.

The PR campaign and the CDC persistently overestimated the mortality risk of Covid infection in kids to scare parents into vaccinating their children with the Covid vax.

In Aug. 2021, the military imposed its Covid vax mandate, leading to 8,300 servicemen being discharged. Since 2023, the DOD has been trying to get the discharged servicemen to reenlist. What harm has been done to American national security by the vax mandate?

The Biden/Harris administration imposed the OSHA, CMS, and military vax mandates, even though the CDC knew that the Delta variant evaded vaccine immunity. The PR campaign studiously avoided informing Americans about waning vaccine efficacy in the face of variants.

The propaganda campaign hired celebrities and influencers to “persuade” children to get the Covid vax.

I think if a celebrity is paid to advertise a faulty product, that celebrity should be partially liable if the product harms some people.

In the absence of evidence, the propaganda campaign ran ads telling parents that the vaccine would prevent their kids from getting Long Covid.

With the collapse in public trust in the CDC, parents have begun to question all CDC advice. Predictably, the HHS propaganda campaign has led to a decline in the uptake of routine childhood vaccines.

The report makes several recommendations, including formally defining the CDC’s core mission to focus on disease prevention, forcing HHS propaganda to abide by the FDA’s product labeling rules, and revamping the process of evaluating vaccine safety.

Probably the most important recommendation: HHS should never again adopt a policy of silencing dissenting scientists in an attempt to create an illusion of consensus in favor of CDC groupthink.

You can find a copy of the full House report here.

The HHS must take its findings seriously if there is any hope for public health to regain public.

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, October 21-28, 2024

Insurance data study: 15M dead by the jab; actor Michael Newman (Baywatch); rap producer DJ Clark Kent (57, C); music exec John Titta (C, ASCAP); soccer player Holden Trent (25); & more

Mark Crispin MillerOct 30

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Global study reveals 15 million Covid vax deaths, 60M disabilities

October 23, 2024

An explosive worldwide study has revealed that up to a staggering 15 million people have been killed by Covid mRNA “vaccines” globally. In addition, the study shows that up to 60 million people have been left with disabilities from the injections with between 500M and 900M injured by the shots. The shocking results of the comprehensive data analysis were revealed by Ed Dowd. Dowd is a former executive at the world’s largest investment firm BlackRock and is considered one of America’s leading data experts. Through his expert analysis of insurance industry data, Dowd has become a prominent figure in investigations into the impact of the global Covid vaccination campaign.

This news comes as concern for the long-term impact on public health continues to grow. As Slay News recently reported, a major study has revealed a staggering plunge in life expectancy among those who received Covid shots. The explosive study was conducted by a team of leading Italian researchers led by Professor Marco Alessandria of the University of Turin. The peer-reviewed study has revealed that people who received Covid mRNA “vaccines” have significantly reduced their life expectancy. The study has sent shockwaves through the scientific community and further confirmed warnings from leading experts about the long-term impact of the Covid mRNA injections. The researchers found that the Covid-vaxxed suffered a “statistically significant” loss of life expectancy after two or more doses. Following a detailed analysis of the study, the McCullough Foundation confirms that those who received two doses of the shots have lost 37% of their life expectancy.

Link

Upgrade to paid

UNITED STATES

Baywatch actor Michael Newman dies at 68

October 22, 2024

“Baywatch” actor Michael Newman has passed away at 68 years old. His death comes 18 years after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease in 2006. Newman’s friend Matt Felker, who directed the Hulu docuseries “After Baywatch: Moment in the Sun,” told People magazine that he died “from heart complications” on Sunday evening, “surrounded by his family and friends.” The Los Angeles native played lifeguard Mike “Newmie” Newman in 150 episodes of the hit ‘90s series. He was the only cast member who was a real lifeguard; he worked as an L.A. County lifeguard for 20 years. While in Hollywood, Newman worked as a firefighter as well as an actor, and continued firefighting after “Baywatch,” until he retired.

Link

DJ Clark Kent dies of colon cancer at 57

October 25, 2024

Hip Hop luminary and producer DJ Clark Kent died on Thursday evening after a lengthy fight with colon cancer, his family announced. According to their statement, the 57-year-old tried-and-true NYC native — born Rodolfo A. Franklin — passed away surrounded by his wife Kesha, daughter Kabriah and son Antonio, AKA Mage. Clark Kent had fought colon cancer for three years but still managed to spread his love for rap throughout the globe. The family asked for prayers and privacy as they grieve together.

Link

RIP John Titta, popular longtime music exec

October 24, 2024

My great friend, John Titta, died yesterday after a two-year battle with cancer. He was 69. John was most recently the Chief Creative Officer at ASCAP, the gigantic music licensing company. He had also held high positions at Warner Chappell Music Publishing. He performed over the course of his career on albums by Ringo Starr and Gizelle D’Cole and played with Michael McDonald, the Doobie Brothers, Duane Eddy, Richie Sambora and Omi.

Link

ASCAP’s “vaccination” mandate for employees:

https://www.showbizjobs.com/jobs/ascap-graphic-designer-in-new-york/jid-rb848o

More: Songwriters, musicians, actors and clinical pharmacologists must promote covid‐19 vaccinations. For example, artists belonging to the American Society of Composers, Authors & Publishers (ASCAP), which has a membership of about 800,000 US composers, songwriters, lyricists and music publishers, composed at least 30 COVID‐19‐themed songs.

Link

Philadelphia Union goalkeeper dies at 25

October 26, 2024

The Philadelphia Union announced that goalkeeper Holden Trent died on Saturday at age 25. No cause of death was announced, but Trent’s family had shared that he was hospitalized in an intensive care unit in an update from his Instagram account this week. “Holden passed away this afternoon surrounded by his family and friends,” his family said Saturday. Trent was born on July 7, 1999, and attended Page High School in Greensboro, North Carolina. He was selected with the 28th pick in the 2023 MLS Super Draft by the Union out of High Point University, where he was the Big South Goalkeeper of the Year in 2021 and 2022.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Indiana football’s 1979 Big Ten MVP quarterback dies at 65

October 24, 2024

Former Indiana quarterback Tim Clifford, the 1979 Big Ten MVP, died Wednesday at age 65.

Bloomington, Ind. – Tim Clifford, the 1979 Big Ten Most Valuable Player and quarterback of Indiana’s Holiday Bowl winning team, died at age 65 due to heart complications. Clifford was scheduled to have a triple bypass surgery on Thursday, but he passed away on Wednesday night in Cincinnati, Ohio. Along with approximately 75 players and staff members from Indiana’s 1979 Holiday Bowl team, Clifford planned to be in Bloomington this weekend for their 45-year reunion.

Link

South Florida basketball coach dies suddenly at 43

October 24, 2024

South Florida men’s basketball coach Amir Abdur-Rahim died suddenly Thursday, the school announced. He was 43. The Tampa Bay Times’ Joey Knight reported that Abdur-Rahim’s passing was unexpected and as the result of an “aggressive illness.” Abdur-Rahim died due to complications that arose during a medical procedure at a Tampa-area hospital, according to school officials. USF Board of Trustees chairman Will Weatherford described Abdur-Rahim’s death as a “shock to us all.”

No cause of death reported.

Link

Three broadcasters “died suddenly”:

Jim Donovan, ‘Voice of the Cleveland Browns,’ passes away at 68

October 26, 2024

Jim Donovan, “The Voice of the Cleveland Browns,” has passed away at the age of 68 after battling chronic lymphocytic leukemia. In a letter Donovan penned to Browns fans at the end of the 2024 preseason, he announced he was stepping away from the Browns Radio Network to focus on his battle with cancer. He was first diagnosed with chronic lymphocytic leukemia in 2000, which began over a decade-long battle with the disease. He underwent a successful bone marrow transplant in the summer of 2011 and monitored the disease in the years following. Donovan announced in May 2023 thathe had a relapse of the leukemia and would undergo a more aggressive treatment.

Link

WWL-TV Anchor Eric Paulsen dies after battle with cancer

October 26, 2024

New Orleans, LA — Eric Paulsen, a familiar face on New Orleans television for nearly 50 years, passed away Saturday morning after a brief but intense battle with cancer. He was 74. Paulsen revealed his diagnosis of an aggressive form of cancer in mid-September, before stepping away from the anchor desk. “I’m ready for this battle,” Paulsen told his audience. Over the years, he became synonymous with morning news in New Orleans.

Link

Christian radio host dies of cancer: ‘He was a great man’

October 24, 2024

Greenville, S.C. – Rob Dempsey, a Christian radio host known for his time on the local South Carolina show Rob and Lizz in the Morning, has died at age 57. On Thursday, Oct. 24, the HisAir radio network where Dempsey worked for 24 years announced during a broadcast that the host died of complications from bladder cancer. Dempsey went into cardiac arrest after being hospitalized for emergency surgery on Oct. 23. In an Instagram post shared on Monday, Oct. 21, he wrote that he had been admitted to the hospital for surgery on his left kidney. He first announced his health diagnosis on Oct. 15, writing on Facebook that “I have bladder cancer and it looks aggressive.”

Link

Longtime state senator Frank Ruff dies of cancer at 75

October 27, 2024

Frank M. Ruff Jr. of Clarksville, who served 30 years in the Virginia General Assembly as a delegate and state senator, died Saturday afternoon after a year-long battle with cancer, his family announced Saturday evening. In a statement, the family said Ruff “passed peacefully in his home on the afternoon of Saturday, October 26, 2024, surrounded by his loving family after a valiant battle with cancer.” Shortly after winning a seventh term to the Virginia State Senate, Ruff announced December 2023 that he would step down at the start of the 2024 General Assembly session due to illness. Ruff was diagnosed with kidney cancer in October and underwent surgery in November, and said his decision to resign was driven by the need to undergo “aggressive and ongoing” treatment for the cancer, which continued to spread.

Link

MA state rep who inspired conservative women dies suddenly

October 23, 2024

A woman with short blond hair, wearing a black blazer with an American flag lapel pin, poses for a portrait in front of a leafy tree.

Susan Williams Gifford, a longtime state representative from Wareham, MA, and one of just four female Republican lawmakers on Beacon Hill, died suddenly from cancer Tuesday. Gifford, 64, was first elected to the House in 2002, after serving three years on the Wareham Board of Selectmen. A spokesperson announced her death Wednesday morning. On Beacon Hill, Gifford served in the GOP leadership ranks as minority whip, and she was the ranking minority member on the Joint Committee on Agriculture.

Link

Active duty U.S. Coast Guard member dies at 41

October 24, 2024

Wayne Edward Graham of Buzzards Bay, MA, an active duty member of the US Coast Guard on Cape Cod, died unexpectedly on October 16. He was 41.

No cause of death reported.

Link

Pentagon mandates US military service members receive Covid “vaccine” immediately:

Link

A musician “died suddenly”:

Amy Lisbeth Harris, 54

October 24, 2024

Morton, IL – Amy Lisbeth Harris, 54, of Morton, IL, passed away peacefully on Saturday, October 19, 2024, at Apostolic Christian Restmor in Morton. Amy, a cellist, worked as a freelance musician in the Kansas City area. She performed regularly with many local groups, including Saint Joseph Symphony, the Kinnor Philharmonic and frequent performances with Broadway touring productions and shows. Amy was also a frequent chamber musician as well as maintaining a private cello studio.

No cause of death reported.

PAUL ALEXANDER

‘GEEZ!’ Ghostwriter shared this about the stark choice we face in the election; ‘maybe the system is set up to divide us; Democrats…Republicans…2 sides, same coin? Because if America remains divided

it’s much easier to conquer.’ An America divided will not survive…no matter who wins the election. “we got a nation to save and not devolve this way to such hatred, we have people to uplift, and we

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 29

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must dig deep and find that thing in each of us to collaborate!”

‘GEEZ!

Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

After reading Doc’s stack “I don’t think Harris is a communist” and the 280+ comments I have one word…GEEZ (by definition, an informal way to express surprise, disappointment, frustration, annoyance, or exasperation). Y’all be hating on Doc and it’s completely unwarranted. You can’t really understand another person’s experience until you’ve walked a mile in their shoes.

Buddha said, “Hatred is like drinking poison and expecting the other person to die.”

Some points to ponder and help redirect:

-Fear is the card “they” are playing now. Communist. Fascist. Further the divide.

-It was a test. 81% of America took an experimental vaccine. A test to see how far they could push us…How quickly they could divide us…How much they could control us. They pitted us against one another and divided this country like never before and we have never recovered. America. Failed. The. Test.

-Why would they stop dividing us now? They have America on the run. Step right up folks and pick a president. Trump or Harris? Much like Unvaccinated or Vaccinated? Same tune, different lyrics. We’re playing right into “their” evil, globalist plans.

-Trump: rolled out an experimental vaccine via Operation Warp Speed. Shut the country down for 2 weeks which kicked off the chain reaction. Continues to praise OWS and the vaccine today despite all the information coming to light on the harms of the vaccine. Why? Does he not know what has happened as a result of OWS and the mRNA vaccines? Trump is either stupid or compromised. I do not know how else to describe it.

-Harris: 2^nd in command during the Biden administration which mandated the experimental vaccine yet today proudly touts “my body, my choice,” which clearly didn’t matter an iota when women across the country were mandated to receive the deadly mRNA juice. Then they women, had NO choice. Were forced to take the vaccine to live, to work, to provide for their families. Why? Does Harris know about the devastation of the mRNA vaccine? Harris is either stupid or compromised. I do not know how else to describe it.

-Democrats…Republicans…2 sides, same coin? Maybe that’s all it has ever been? Maybe the system is set up to divide us? Because if America remains divided it’s much easier to conquer.

I am a supporter of President Trump, yet the election is so close I am nervous. Change is on the horizon folks. We pray for the good for this great nation! At the same time an America divided will not survive…no matter who wins the election. As Doc said, “we got a nation to save and not devolve this way to such hatred, we have people to uplift, and we must dig deep and find that thing in each of us to collaborate!”

Godspeed Dr. Alexander…Godspeed!’

___

You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.

Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.

end

UK study confirmed the global stable data that no healthy child in US or elsewhere, none, got severely ill or died from this thing called ‘COVID’; in fact severe outcomes ONLY after MALONE et al. mRNA

gene vaccine! Bergman’s SLAY paper highlights the reality of deadly Malone Bourla et al. mRNA vaccine for children! ‘zero children from the entire group, vaccinated or unvaccinated, died from COVID’

Dr. Paul AlexanderOct 30

READ IN APP

Bottom line, NO COVID mRNA vaccine was needed in any child, NONE! And is NOT needed! Parents be warned! The mRNA gene-based vaccine should have never been rolled out to children, as much as it should not have been given to pregnant women who were excluded from the registrational legacy trials by Pfizer, Moderna etc.

Link:

Study of 1.7 Million Children: Heart Damage Only Found in Covid-Vaxxed Kids – Slay News

‘Furthermore, the study found that Covid shots offered the children very little protection from the virus, with many becoming infected after just 14 to 15 weeks of receiving an injection.’

‘The 1.7 million children observed in the study were between the ages of 5 to 15 and were registered with the UK’s National Healthcare System (NHS).’

‘The researchers were investigating the safety and effectiveness of Pfizer’s vaccine in fully vaccinated, partially vaccinated, and unvaccinated children and teenagers.

However, they discovered that cases of myocarditis and pericarditis only emerged in the vaccinated group.’

‘Zero cases of myocarditis or pericarditis were found in the unvaccinated group.

Myocarditis and pericarditis are both forms of inflammation in the heart.

end

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Study of 3.35 Million Links Surge in Severe Heart Disease to mRNA ‘Vaccines’A major new study involving millions of vaccinated people has linked Covid mRNA “vaccines” to surges in cases of severe heart disease and related deaths.READ MORE

UK Government Admits Thousands of Citizens Left ‘Permanently Disabled’ by Covid ‘Vaccines’In a damning admission, the UK government has admitted that thousands of British citizens have been left “permanently disabled” by Covid “vaccines.”READ MORE

‘World’s Most Accurate Economist’ Makes Election Day Prediction A world-renowned economist and strategist, famed as the “world’s most accurate” in his profession, has made a bold prediction for the critical 2024 election.READ MORE

Arkansas Supreme Court Orders Election Officials to Allow Early Voting Arkansas’ Supreme Court has issued a major ruling on early voting in the state ahead of Election Day.READ MORE

Washington Post Reporters Protest-Quit after Paper Refuses to Endorse Kamala Harris The second reporter has quit from the Washington Post in protest after the newspaper failed to endorse Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris.READ MORE

Trump Warns ‘Low IQ’ Kamala Harris Is Just a ‘Vessel’ for ‘Something Much Bigger’President Donald Trump has warned that there is a “much bigger” threat to the nation than his rival Kamala Harris.READ MORE

Confused Abortion ‘Doctors’ Fail to Help Harris Rallygoer Suffering ‘Medical Emergency’ in Crowd A group of alleged “doctors” appeared on stage at Democrat presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris’s rally on Sunday to promote abortion.READ MORE

Washington Post Staffers Panic as Paper Sheds 200,000 Subscribers After Refusal to Endorse Harris The Washington Post has shed a whopping 200,000 subscribers after the newspaper’s editorial board refused to endorse Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris.READ MORE

Media Election Coverage 85% Negative Against Trump, Study Finds: ‘Most Lopsided in History’A new study has found that the corporate media’s coverage of the critical 2024 presidential election has been the most biased in history.READ MORE

AOC: Trump Is ‘Inciting Violence’ Against Black & Latino Voters and ‘Americans Who Don’t Have Children’With Election Day just over one week away, Democrats are getting increasingly desperate with their attacks against President Donald Trump.READ MORE

Biden Banned from Campaign Trail by Kamala Harris’ Team Lame-duck President Joe Biden has been banned from the 2024 election campaign trial and is being ignored by Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s team, according to a new report.READ MORE

San Antonio Spurs Coach Gregg Popovich Melts Down over ‘Pathetic’ Trump: ‘He’s a Dangerous Man!’Gregg Popovich, Trump, San Antonio Spurs, Texas, Democrats, Liberals, MeltdownREAD MORE

UK Fertility Rates Plummet to Lowest Levels Since Records Began Newly published UK government data has revealed that the fertility rates in England and Wales have now plummeted to the lowest levels since records began in 1938.READ MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

EVOL NEWS

Nearly 50 Million Americans Have Already Cast Ballots in 2024 Election – EVOL READ MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

It Is Beginning To Look Like A Debt Emergency

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 02:05 PM

By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank

Meditations In An Emergency

It’s now less than a week to go until the USA decides who is going to be their next President. The state of the political discourse recalls the ‘dramatic crossroads’ meme, where the respective labels attached to the sunny uplands and the grim castle of doom is a Rorschach test to confirm our political priors.

I’ve chosen my words deliberately to say that the USA will be deciding on their next President – rather than the next ‘leader of the free world’ – because one of the options on the table is a more isolationist approach to trade and foreign policy where the USA may decline to perform the leadership role, instead prodding oftentimes recalcitrant allies into shouldering more of the global security burden.

That could draw the curtain on the ‘Team America World Police’ neocon phase, or even Woodrow Wilson’s “making the world safe for democracy” idyll, if you prefer to cast your view further back. What’s now clear is that the bond market and the DXY is becoming sensitized to the potential implications of another Trump win.

US 10-year yields were down almost 3bps overnight, but are up more than 55bps since the Fed cut rate in mid-September. Americans who had been holding out for rate cuts before they went house shopping are again contending with mortgage rates beginning with a 7-handle, because US mortgages tend to be priced off the long end of the yield curve.

The shape of the curve is telling. While the OIS futures strip has pared back prospects for further rate cuts from the Fed this year, the 2s10s Treasury spread has continued to steepen. The 2s10s was still inverted at the beginning of September, but now records a positive slope of 15.5bps even as the whole curve has shifted higher. Curiously, the 2s30s spread has not steepened at all since the Fed cut rates.

What does this tell us? In a nutshell, markets are banking on fewer rate cuts in the near term and a decade ahead where inflation may be higher than we have grown accustomed to in the recent past. Why might that be? As Donald Trump’s odds of winning the election improve, markets are re-pricing assets to reflect a state of the world in which the Trump policy suite is implemented. Trump himself is a big spender who favors sweeping tax cuts and universal tariffs that most economists will tell you are inflationary, but a Trump win isn’t the only bear case for bonds.

Harris herself is no fiscal hawk, and there is also a renewed uneasiness over the global debt burden and the likelihood of that debt burden growing further as nations confront higher spending on health, aged care, national defense and interest expenses. More on that later.

The recent price action looks like a win for Rational Expectations Theory, but some other elements of economic theory are also having their time in the sun. The concept of low but stable inflation targets being a good thing is borne of the idea of ‘nominal rigidities’. Essentially, this is the contention that certain prices in the economy are ‘sticky’, and that markets are therefore not self-equilibrating in the way that classical economists might ordinarily suggest.

An example of this might be the decline in the volume of US home sales as vendors refuse to adjust price expectations to reflect prevailing economic conditions. Another example might be the proposed 10% cut to the wages of Volkswagen autoworkers (sure to be opposed by labour unions) in Germany that comes courtesy of Europe losing the competition race to China.

In both instances, market offers (for houses and labor) have remained sticky and not adjusted to cold economic reality. The bid/offer spread has widened out, and transaction activity dries up. How do New Keynesian economists of the type that dominate central banking and national treasuries solve such a problem? They grease the wheels of the economic machine by creating enough inflation for bid prices to rise to meet those sticky offers.

We might get some hints of this kind of thinking later today when UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her first budget. In a document likely to be light on surprises, Chancellor Reeves is set to redefine how the UK measures debt so that it can borrow more to “invest”. The UK already exceeds the 90% debt-to-GDP threshold that Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff famously (or infamously) estimated to be the point at which the Keynesian multiplier falls below one. In layman’s terms, this means that for every extra dollar that the government spends GDP increases by less than one dollar, thereby rendering borrow and spend stimulus measures self-defeating as debt grows faster than GDP.

How to escape this economic doom loop? The options are default or retrenchment (austerity). We can rule out austerity as something that no government is brave (or foolhardy) enough to seriously propose after previous attempts by George Osborne and Wolfgang Schauble severely frayed the social contract. On the default side of the menu, countries that have no power over the issuance of their own currency are constrained to hard default (think Greece), whereas sovereign currency-issuing governments have the luxury of defaulting sneakily by debasing the coinage of the realm.

This is the financial repression scenario where bondholders are the patsies, financing fiscal profligacy by holding securities that yield negative real returns. Under this scenario, the smart money gets out of bonds and holds real assets that provide an inflation hedge. With the S&P500 up more than 22% YTD and long yields rising, is this the future that markets are now envisaging in what is beginning to look like a debt emergency?

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BRICS MEETING

Turkiye Debunked Bild’s Fake News About India Reportedly Vetoing Its BRICS Membership Request

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,

There was never any reason to take this report seriously in the first place…

German outlet Bild reported late last week that India allegedly vetoed Turkiye’s BRICS membership request over its ties with Pakistan, which prompted Turkiye’s Center for Combating Disinformation to respond by clarifying that the membership process wasn’t even on the Kazan Summit’s agenda. The Turkish foreign policy expert who was quoted in Bild’s article also refuted their report and added that they didn’t include the nuances of his views that he shared with them.

Reputable Indian journalist Sidhant Sibal earlier reported that BRICS agreed to grant Turkiye partnership status together with a dozen other countries, while Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “everyone is interested in inviting Turkey” to join their association. “BRICS Membership Or Lack Thereof Isn’t Actually That Big Of A Deal” though for the reasons explained in the preceding hyperlinked analysis, namely that anyone can voluntarily coordinate their financial multipolarity policies with the group.

Membership only imbues countries with the right to participate in discussions on this subject whereas partnership status lets them observe these talks in real time while everyone else waits until they’re over to hear about the results. Both have an element of prestige associated with them and that’s why so many countries want to formalize such relations with BRICS. Turkiye considers itself to be a rising power and accordingly believes that it has the right to at least observe their financial multipolarity discussions.

Russia, which hosted this year’s summit, agrees. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was thus invited to participate in the BRICS Plus/Outreach meeting. His country has an important role to play in accelerating financial multipolarity processes due to its transcontinental location and economic influence in the Eurasian Heartland brought about by the “Middle Corridor”. The specific form in which this takes and the degree of coordination with BRICS remain to be seen but this fact exists regardless of that.

India also appreciates Turkiye’s abovementioned role in the global systemic transition despite those two’s disagreements over the unresolved Kashmir Conflict. Its grand strategy aims to carefully multi-align between competing power and influence centers in order to maximally reap the benefits from each. India only decisively takes a side on issues that directly concern its interests, especially those related to national security, since it wants to indefinitely perpetuate this balancing act.

Turkiye’s request to formalize its relationship with BRICS isn’t considered to be something that directly concerns India’s interests, especially not its national security ones, so it was always dubious that it vetoed this even before Turkiye’s Center for Combating Disinformation debunked Bild’s report. India also respects Russia as a state while Modi and Putin are close friends so it would have been scandalous for Delhi to get in the way of Ankara’s plans after Putin invited Erdogan to attend to lobby in support of this.

There’s no credible indication that Russia and India had any sort of disagreement over BRICS expansion during last week’s summit. Bild’s report was therefore bonafide fake news that was published for reasons that only this outlet’s editors can account for if they were honest with the public. Whatever they may be, they were ultimately counterproductive after Turkiye itself debunked their report, which damaged Bild’s reputation and exposed it as more of a tabloid than a reliable source of news and insight.

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0832 UP 0.0012

USA/ YEN 152.85 DOWN 0.407 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2969 DOWN 0.0041

USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3923 UP 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 8 BASIS PTS)

Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 20.17 PTS OR 0.61%

Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 321.60 PTS OR 1.55%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.78%

// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 320.50 PTS OR 1.55%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 20.17 PTS OR 0.61%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .78%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 373L71 POINTS OR 0.96%

INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2781.00

silver:$34.12

USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 104.07 DOWN 12 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.

WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing WERDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.714% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.944% DOWN 3 AND 3/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.022 UP 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.562 UP 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3082 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : WEDNESDAY

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0839 UP .0020 OR 20 basis points

USA/Japan: 152.96 UP .301 OR YEN IS DOWN 30 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.249 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP .0004 OR 4 BASIS pts to 1.3911

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.1255 (ON SHORE)

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1346)

TURKISH LIRA: 34.28 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.978

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 9 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.210% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

USA 30 yr bond yield 4.444 DOWN 8 in basis points /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.113 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2777.25

SILVER AT 11;00: 33.74

Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 59.98 PTS OR 0.73%

German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 220.73 OR 1.13%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 82.75 PTS OR 1.10%

Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 80.30 OR 0.68%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 422.89 OR 1.21%

WTI Oil price 68.18 12 EST/

Brent Oil: 72.12 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 97.19 ROUBLE UP 0 AND 38/100

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3080 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.249 DOWN 7 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.218 DOWN 10 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.013 DOWN 7

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0858 UP 0.0038 OR 38 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2970 DOWN 0.0041 OR 41 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.417 UP 7 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.948

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 153,39 UP .132 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3899 DOWN 0.0017 CDN dollar UP 17 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 68.79

Brent OIL: 72.76

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4,287

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 2 BASIS PTS to 4.501%

USA 2 YR BOND: UP 7 PTS AT 4.172

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.290 UP 0 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.088 UP 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 103.99 DOWN 22 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.27 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.02 UP 0 AND 48/100 roubles

GOLD 2,786.60 3:30 PM

SILVER: 33.86 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 89.48 PTS OR 0.21%

NASDAQ DOWN 162.95 PTS OR 0.79%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 20.06 UP .72 PTS OR 3.72%

GLD: $257.50 UP 1.41 OR 0.55%

SLV/ $30.91 DOWN .58 OR 1.85%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 81.69 PTS OR .33%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Gold Hits Another Record High On ‘Goldilocks’ Data

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 04:00 PM

Micro topped macro on the day, according to Goldman Sachs trading desk, as volumes exploded but bear in mind that there is month-end pension rebalance with $11BN of equities for sale through tomorrow.

Internet names (GSTMTINT Index +100bps) outperformed after GOOGL, SNAP, RDDT results;

Semis broadly weaker (GSTMTSEM Index -280bps) after misses from both AMD & QRVO.

Obesity / GLP-1 names another big focus off LLY blowup this morning (stock is a max long for fast money community. (GSHLCGLP Index -170bps).

And SMCI shit the bed over its auditor quitting

But macro was not to be ignored…

ADP jobs soared (doubling expectations… definitely not dovish), GDP missed expectations (but nobody wanted to think about that because consumption soared), Core PCE hotter than expected (but also, no one wanted to think about that because it was down QoQ), Pending Home Sales soared (but mortgage rates have exploded higher since the data).

US Macro Surprise data continues to charge higher…

Source: Bloomberg

Forgive us but that does not look like ‘Goldilocks’ – it looks like ‘animal spirits’ ignited by a desperately dovish Fed’s 50bps cut prompting excessively easy financial conditions…

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, the market is day-by-day erasing the dovishness priced in after The Fed cut with 2025 expectations now down to less than 3 cuts (72.5bps)…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldilocks or not – Gold was bid again, hitting another new record nominal high…

Source: Bloomberg

On the day, all the US majors shot higher on the (Goldilocks) GDP data… but that didn’t last as reality set in and by the close, everything was red (even Small Caps which had spiked over 1% at the open). Nasdaq was the biggest loser…

The S&P continues to tread water near the highs while VIX remains notably elevated into next week…

Source: Bloomberg

A chaotic day in bond-land that ended with yields very mixed as the long-end dramatically outperformed (30Y -1bps, 2Y +8bps). The belly is the big laggard this week as bonds seems to think The Fed made a policy error…

Source: Bloomberg

Which drove the yield curve (2s30s) down near recent lows…

Source: Bloomberg

…and something big is building up behind the scenes…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar broke down from its coiling flag pattern yesterday, but chopped around again today…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin came off record highs but found support around $72,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices managed gains on the day but remain well down from before the “peace is here” collapse on Monday…

Source: Bloomberg

And finally, The Trump Trade continued to accelerate (hitting a record spread to Kamala)…

Source: Bloomberg

Running out of time for an October Surprise to actually bring “hitler” down? Or did Biden just self-immolate with his ‘garbage’ gobbledygook?

MORNING TRADING/

AFTERNOON TRADING///

II USA DATA

Q3 GDP growth disappoints. Personal consumption rises but so does government spending

(zerohedge)

US Q3 GDP Growth Disappoints, Despite Surging Personal Consumption, Government Spending

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 08:40 AM

Just moments after ADP published a laughably slanted private payrolls report according to which the US labor force grew by 233K in October (even though we are still in October), 6 standard deviations above the median estimate, moments ago the Biden Bureau of Economic Analysis came out with its own surprise when it reported in its first assessment of Q3 GDP that the US economy grew at a 2.8% rate, down from 3.0% in Q2…

… and below the 2.9% median estimate, the first ‘miss’ since Q3 2023…

As the BEA notes, the increase in the third quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

Yet while the overall number was weaker than expected, looking at the components one stick out: personal consumption surged more than expected, rising 3.7% SAAR vs 3.3% expected and 2.8% in Q2!

At a 3.7% annualized rate, personal consumption was a 2-sigma beat to expectations.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts (led by used light trucks). Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations.

A closer look at the components reveals the following breakdown:

Personal Consumption added 2.46% to the bottom line number, up from 1.90% and accounting for 86% of total growth in Q3!
Fixed Investment added 0.24%, down from 0.42% last quarter.
Private Inventories subtracted 0.17% from the bottom line GDP print, a big drop from the 1.05% contribution in Q2.
Net exports (exports less imports), subtracted 0.55% from the growth print, a smaller hit vs the 0.89% hit in Q2.
Finally, government consumption added 0.85%, up from 0.52%

How much of a contribution is government spending? Here is the answer: government has contributed to “growth” for 9 consecutive quarters, and Q3 saw the biggest addition in the past year.

On the inflation side, the Core PCE buried inside the GDP data slowed to 2.2% from 2.8% (but that was slightly hotter than the 2.1% expected)…

So growth slower than expected, inflation higher than expected, and in this stagflationary mess consumption is somehow much higher than expected, just as the Fed launches its first easing campaign in years.

end

what a surprise! a six sigma gain one week before the election

(ADP)

October Surprise: ADP Employment Report Signals Six-Sigma Beat (A Week Before Elections)

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 08:24 AM

With the election right around the corner, we simply can’t imagine a ‘bad’ employment print… and sure enough… ADP’s Employment Report shows the addition of 233k jobs in October (more than double the 111k addition expected) and September was revised higher…

Source: Bloomberg

That is the biggest monthly addition since July 2023… and a six sigma beat of expectations…

Source: Bloomberg

Service-providing jobs surged at their fastest pace since July 2023 while goods-producing job growth slowed…

Source: Bloomberg

“Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October. As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient,” says Nela Richardson Chief Economist, ADP.

Year-over-year pay gains for job-stayers dipped to 4.6 percent, continuing a two-year slowdown. For job-changers, pay gains slowed to 6.2 percent.

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as a reminder, ADP has underestimated the official BLS data for 12 of the last 14 months…

Source: Bloomberg

This is not what The Fed doves wants to see…

Source: Bloomberg

…but will they cut under Trump?

END

US Pending Home Sales Exploded Higher In September As Mortgage Rates Fell, But…

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 10:07 AM

Existing home sales slumped (14 year low), but new home sales surged in September, so today’s Pending Home Sales data is the tiebreaker for just what a shitshow the US housing market is.

And the winner is… Pending home sales surged 7.4% MoM (+1.9% exp) in September – that is the biggest MoM jump since the COVID lockdowns (June 2020)…

Source: Bloomberg

This giant jump sent the YoY sales print up 2.16% YoY – the first annual gain since Nov 2021.

“Contract signings rose across all regions of the country as buyers took advantage of the combination of lower mortgage rates in late summer and more inventory choices,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.

“Further gains are expected if the economy continues to add jobs, inventory levels grow and mortgage rates hold steady.”

The total pending home sales index rebounded off record lows…

Source: Bloomberg

September saw mortgage rates decline rapidly back below 7.00%, but since then mortgage applications have collapsed as mortgage rates surged back to 7.25% since The Fed cuts rates (that’s not supposed to happen)…

Source: Bloomberg

Pending sales rose in all regions of the US, increasing 9.8% in the West, 7.1% in the Midwest, 6.7% in the South and 6.5% in the Northeast, NAR data show.

Yun expected slower appreciation in home prices to boost sales over the next couple years.

“After two years of sluggish home sales in 2023 and 2024, existing-home sales are forecasted to rise to 4.47 million in 2025 and more than 5 million in 2026,” Yun said in the release.

“During the next two years, expect a slower rate of growth in home prices that’s roughly in line with the consumer price index because of additional supply reaching the market.”

Finally, as a reminder, pending-homes sales tend to be a leading indicator for previously owned homes, because houses typically go under contract a month or two before they’re sold.

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Trump To Unleash Financial Armageddon On Mexican Drug Cartels If He Wins: We Will Be “Seizing Assets”

Tuesday, Oct 29, 2024 – 08:05 PM

Former President Trump reportedly told allies earlier this year that he would covertly deploy Tier 1 US Special Forces operators to Mexico to wipe out drug cartel leadership if he returns to the White House. However, storming the command and control centers of cartels with guns blazing may not be the proper strategy to dismantle these criminal organizations.

“I’m announcing that for the first time under my administration, we are seizing the assets of the criminal gangs and drug cartels and we will use those assets to create a compensation fund to provide restitution for the victims of migrant crime,” Trump said at a press conference on Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851289425369538563

Trump’s comments at Mar-a-Lago suggest if he wins in November, the US Treasury Department may ramp up a financial war against the violent Mexico-based drug trafficking cartel responsible for America’s drug overdose catastrophe.

“When it comes to drug trafficking, we haven’t enforced sanctions against banks seriously,” David Asher, a senior fellow at the conservative Hudson Institute specializing in US foreign policy and law enforcement, told AP News in April 2023.

Asher continued, “If we can sanction Russian oligarchs and banks, why can’t we do the same thing to Mexican drug lords and their bankers and bank accounts and banks — especially when we know who they are.”

Under a Trump presidency, international fentanyl trafficking could be declared a national emergency. This would then allow the Treasury to sanction the hell out of drug cartels and their banks. This would enable Trump to confiscate the sanctioned property of fentanyl traffickers. And it’s not just targeting Mexican banks where traffickers hide their monies – Chinese banks could be targets, too.

Sanctions would be a tool by Trump to then deter Chinese chemical firms from sending fentanyl-precursor chemicals to Mexico. When cooked, these chemicals are turned into fentanyl, shipped over Biden-Harris’ open southern borders, and then flooded into streets of American towns and cities.

If Trump wins, expect these illicit financial networks of the cartels and Chinese companies participating in this drug crisis scheme to be instant targets.

Remember, China doesn’t even have to fire a shot, and 100,000 Americans die each year from the drug death overdose crisis. Many of these deaths are folks who are prime-aged working men and women, in other words, military-aged men and women. Some say this is reverse opium wars waged by the Communists on the West. Trump may end this chaos that Biden-Harris allowed to expand drastically.

Will activist hedge funds short the peso and Mexican banks if Trump wins? It certainly sounds like a big theme in the making, of course, dependent on a Trump win.

end

BofA Warns “Enforcement Action” By Feds Possible Over Money Laundering, Zelle

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 09:40 AM

A little more than two weeks after Toronto-Dominion Bank pleaded guilty to multiple criminal charges and paid $3 billion in fines and other penalties to the Department of Justice and financial regulators for failing to monitor money laundering operations of fentanyl drug traffickers and other criminals, the investigation into suspected money laundering at major banks appears to have expanded to the US.

Bank of America revealed in a filing on Tuesday that it’s in talks with several federal regulators “in relation to certain aspects of the Corporation’s Bank Secrecy Act/anti-money laundering and sanctions compliance programs (Programs), including transaction monitoring, training, governance, and customer due diligence.”

“In cooperation with regulators, the Corporation has been, and plans to continue, implementing enhancements to these Programs. The Corporation is continuing discussions with its regulators about the Programs, and resolution of these discussions may include one or more public orders by the regulators,” BofA continued.

BofA is responding to an inquiry from the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau into electronic payments on the Zelle payment network.

“The CFPB staff has initiated discussions with the Corporation to pursue a resolution of the inquiry or file an enforcement action. The Corporation is evaluating next steps, including litigation,” the bank said.

The filing did not mention specifics about potential AML issues. However, the TD Bank case, where the Canadian bank chose profits over AML compliance, allowed fentanyl and narcotics trafficking operations to use banking services.

In early September, we cited a conversation with Sam Cooper, an investigative journalist behind the Substack “The Bureau,” and David Asher, a former senior investigator for the State Department, in which Asher revealed, “And most of what we’re seeing is coming from this TD Bank case, and there’s a lot more. We’ll see which one of the big four US banks gets named next.”

At the time, we even questioned if AML investigations were pending at major US banks and potentially one of the reasons Buffett was dumping shares in the bank.

More broadly, AML investigation across multiple North American banks comes ahead of a potential Trump win in the White House. The former president said Tuesday that he would “seize assets” of drug cartels for their drug death catastrophe, killing 100,000 Americans per year. In other words, Trump is indirectly saying that if he wins – the feds will be disrupting ‘command & control’ networks (fin networks) of drug cartels …

… to stop this madness that Biden-Harris allowed to inflict great pain on the nation while jeopardizing national security.

What’s important to note is the AML investigation of major banks has broadened and could drastically widen in the months ahead.

SEATTLE

“Complete Lawlessness”: Seattle Residents Concerned With “Chaos” Cause By Illegal Street Racing

Tuesday, Oct 29, 2024 – 11:00 PM

We’ve already seen it wreak havoc in cities like Philadelphia, and now illegal street racing is taking over another Democrat-run, Democrat-DA led city: Seattle. And the chaos is starting to concern residents.

Seattle police are seeking drivers involved in two weekend “street takeovers” that caused traffic jams and alarmed nearby residents and workers, KING5 Seattle reported on Monday.

Resident Clay Church said: “Felt like chaos and you something you see at a frat party. Ten fireworks I saw. Multiple were thrown at the cop cars directly. That’s kind of when the cops backed another block. [It was] really loud between that and the cars, complete chaos.”

“One hundred to 150 people out here with their cars essentially, drag racing, doing donuts. Kind of complete lawlessness, really,” Church added.

Church described the early Sunday street takeover outside his apartment at 3rd Ave and Clay St. Around 1 a.m., he saw people blocking the intersection with lime scooters and orange cones.

“We see things on Friday nights. But you don’t expect this type of thing,” another resident said. “We were very nervous someone was going to get hit by a car. Just with the mass amount of people out there and with these cars just spinning.”

According to KING5, staff reported the street takeover lasted under 20 minutes. Tower camera footage showed a bystander throwing an object at a car, sparking a conflict before police intervened.

“They need to understand what folks go through who do live in downtown and understand that it’s just not acceptable,” Church concluded.

A statement from the Mayor’s office read: “Mayor Harrell believes it is critical that we work to prevent this behavior and hold offenders accountable using all tools available, including law enforcement efforts, new safety technologies, and legislation recently passed by the City Council. We would defer to SPD on the specifics of these particular events and law enforcement tactics.”

Maybe Seattle residents will think twice before urging defunding the police the next time we have a “Summer of Love”…
end

Looks like another fraud in the making with Super Micro

(zerohedge)

Super Micro Crashes After Auditor Resigns

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 09:05 AM

Super Micro Computer says Ernst & Young resigns as auditor amid a review after EY communicated concerns about several matters relating to governance, transparency and completeness of communications in July.

EY stated in resignation letter that:

“we are resigning due to information that has recently come to our attention which has led us to no longer be able to rely on management’s and the Audit Committee’s representations and to be unwilling to be associated with the financial statements prepared by management, and after concluding we can no longer provide the Audit Services in accordance with applicable law or professional obligations”

This news triggered an almost 30% collapse in the tech company’;s shares…

Is this a sign of things to come for other tech giants?

Developing…

END

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

KING REPORT

The King Report October 30, 2024 Issue 7359

Independent View of the News

  China considers over $1.4 trillion in extra debt over next few years
    China to raise fresh debt via special treasury, local govt bonds
    Package includes 6 trln yuan to address local govt debt risks
    China to approve up to 4 trln bonds for idle land, property purchases
    Beijing may announce stronger fiscal package if Trump wins Nov. 5 election
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/eyeing-us-election-china-considers-over-14-trillion-extra-debt-over-next-few-2024-10-29/

Precious metals soared on the above Reuters story. Gold hit an all-time high.

US Consumer Confidence Rises Most Since 2021 on Labor Market – BBG
The Conference Board’s gauge of confidence jumped 9.5 points to 108.7, the highest level since the start of the year (99.5 expected)… Expectations for the next six months rose in October to 89.1, the highest since December 2021… Present Conditions increased more than 14 points, the largest monthly advance since May 2021… ‘jobs plentiful’ rose 3.8 percentage points, the most since May 2021, to 35.1%…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-29/us-consumer-confidence-increases-to-highest-level-since-january

@charliebilello: US Home Prices hit another all-time high in August, rising 4% over the last year. Meanwhile, affordability remains near record lows.

Aug FHFA House Price Index 0.3% m/m, 0.1% expected
Aug S&P CoreLogic 20-city house prices 0.35% m/m & 5.2% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 5.1% expected

Bonds declined sharply early on Tuesday on China and soaring consumer confidence. Yes, Virginia, the Fed’s jumbo rate had little to do with ‘data’ and more to do with US presidential politics.

USZs hit a daily low of 116 24/32, -29/32, at 11:16 ET. Then, once again, someone juiced USZs into a Treasury Auction (7-year notes). This created a better than expected 7-year auction result: 4.215% vs 4.235% WI. USZs rallied 19/32 to 117 20/32 at 14:18 ET after the release of the results.

ESZs traded mostly negative but flat from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower at 23:43 ET. After hitting a low of 5850.50 at 0:04 ET, ESZs rallied to a de facto double top of 5869.00 at 3:30 ET & 5869.50 at 4:51 ET. ESZs then methodically declined until they hit the daily low of 5837.50 at 9:34 ET.

Conditioned buying and Fang results buying propelled ESZs to 5872. 225 at 10:23 ET. After trading sideways until 12:50 ET, ESZs broke higher and hit a daily high of 5881.75 at 13:01 ET and then rested.

AMD was +3.1% near 14:30 ET and GOOGL was +1.9% on buying for their results, which were due after the NYSE close.

After the modest early afternoon retreat, ESZs plodded to new highs on buying for expected great results from AMD and Google. ESZs hit the daily high of 5883.25 at 15:29 ET and then sank to 5867.50 at 15:57 ET. Like on Monday, traders got too long. ESZs were 5871.50 at the NYSE close.

Why Nobody Believes The “Data”: Surging Prices of Everyday Items Are Excluded from CPI
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/heres-why-cpi-doesnt-fully-reflect-economic-pain

America’s most powerful banker launches scathing attack on Biden-Harris administration after privately backing VP for presidency – Jamie Dimon told a conference of bankers Monday…
   ‘It’s time to fight back,’ he said at the American Bankers Association, pointing to the ‘onslaught’ of red tape, before exclaiming: ‘I’m tired of this s***.’ Dimon, a registered Democrat, has been uncharacteristically quiet about his political leanings in recent months…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-14013241/Powerful-banker-launches-scathing-attack-Biden-Harris-administration-privately-backing-VP-presidency.html

Positive aspects of previous session
The DJTA rallied modestly; Nasdaq soared on Fang buying
Oil and gasoline declined smartly.
USZs rallied sharply from -29/32 to +/32 at the NYSE close.

Negative aspects of previous session
Bonds declined sharply in early trading; gold hit an all-time high; the DJIA declined 144.73

Ambiguous aspects of previous session
Are traders too long Fangs ahead of this week’s results?

First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down

Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5827.43
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5847.19; 5802.17

GOP Sen. (@tedcruz: Big Tech companies like Amazon and OpenAI are now pushing Congress to pass Harris’s AI policies so they can conspire with government bureaucrats to censor conservatives under the guise of preventing “bias” and “discrimination.”

Unwitting straw donors may have funneled donations from China, Russia and Iran to Democrats: House panel (via Act Blue) https://trib.al/OmEYodD

After the close, Google reported EPS of 2.12, 1.84 expected; Revenue ex-TAC of $74.55B, $72.88B expected; Ad Rev of $88.27B, $86.45B expected; Cloud Revenue of $11.25B, $10.79B expected. GOOGL soared 5% in after-hour-trading but quickly rescinded the rally. GOOGL then vacillated between unchanged and +3.5% for 10 minutes. It rebounded to +4.7% at 16:35 ET.

AMD reported Q3 EPS of .92, .91 expected; Revenue of $6.8B, $6.71B consensus; but forecasted Q4 Revenue of $7.2B to $7.8B, $7.55B was consensus. AMD sank as much as 6.8% (153.9 low, 166.25 C).

Today – Equity traders are bullish due to October performance gaming and Microsoft or Meta’s results, which are due after the NYSE close. The rally window is open until Amazon and Apple report after Thursday’s close and the October NFP on Friday morning. Though only 110k NFP are expected, Team Obama-Harris needs their BLS servants to craft a better-than-reality jobs report ahead of the election.

ESZs +19.00; NQZs are +73.50 (on Google plus MSFT & META); and USZs are +13/32 at 20:43 ET.

Expected econ data: HUM 3.35, CAT 5.34, HES 1.81, LLY 1.51, CLX 1.38, ALL 2.47, META 5.25, AWK 1.83, MAA 2.17, PRU 3.47, MT 2.17, MSFT 3.11, SBUX 1.01, AMGN 5.10

Expected impact earnings: Oct ADP Employment Change 110k; Q3 GDP 3.0%, Consumption 3.3%, GDP Price Index 1.9%, Core PCE 2.0%; Sept Pending Home Sales 1.0% m/m & -1.1% y/y

S&P Index 50-day MA: 5693; 100-day MA: 5581; 150-day MA: 5450; 200-day MA: 5344
DJIA 50-day MA: 41,867; 100-day MA: 40,762; 150-day MA: 40,109; 200-day MA: 39,741
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)

S&P 500 Index (5832.92 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5509.91 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5788.27 triggers a sell signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5805.88 triggers a sell signal

Whistleblower: James Comey had FBI ‘honey pot’ spies infiltrate Trump’s 2016 campaign
Alleged off-the-books investigation predated FBI’s Russia collusion probe
    The whistleblower disclosure said that two female FBI undercover agents successfully infiltrated Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign at high levels and were directed to act as “honey pots” while traveling with Mr. Trump and his campaign staff on the trail… A House Judiciary Committee spokesman said the committee received the whistleblower allegations and “plans to look into them.”…
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/oct/29/whistleblower-james-comey-fbi-honey-pot-spies-infi/

Kamala’s Campaign Appears to Surrender Key Battleground State with Just Days to Go
Harris’s campaign has pulled nearly $2 million in planned television ad buys from North Carolina…
https://www.lifezette.com/2024/10/kamalas-campaign-appears-to-surrender-key-battleground-state-with-just-days-to-go/

@Breaking911: REPORTER: “People can’t afford groceries or their rent.” KAMALA: “Let’s start with this, I come from the middle class.”  https://x.com/Breaking911/status/1851396197535416684

@TonySeruga: GPS—31,834 mobile devices at the Ellipse in Washington, D.C. for a Kamala Harris rally. 91% have attended 3 or more Harris rallies. Interesting, just over 11,000 were from Atlanta, Georgia, followed by 6,500 from California.  (For her closing argument, she’s emphasizing Jan 6!)

@TonySeruga: GPS—a total of 98,678 mobile devices were at or in the immediate vicinity of Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally (Sunday). Just under 20,000 were in the venue itself and the balance were outside watching.  47% had never attended a Trump rally.

@EricLDaugh at the Ellipse rally in DC: HARRIS: Trump intends to use the military against citizens who simply disagree with him. He is unstable, obsessed with revenge, and out for unchecked power… Donald Trump’s answer for the economy is the same as last time. More tax cuts… It is time to turn the page…It is time for a new generation of leadership in America…
https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1851409603965202935
     There is a special symbolism in Kamala giving her “closing” speech in the Swamp – Washington D.C. Who TF suggested she do this? The rally attendees are all people who have been to them before. She drew out no new voters.

@mboyle1: This gloomy Kamala speech is being delivered to a very small audience: the Democrat base. She’s not speaking beyond them. More proof that the Kamala campaign is worried about the bottom falling out in final week and racing to hold the base together.

Democrats tell Kamala Harris to drop controversial tactic in last week of presidential race
An email circulated to Democrats that its internal testing showed attacks on the Republican’s character were “not that persuasive”, The New York Times reports… “Attacking Trump’s fascism is not that persuasive,” it said, adding: “‘Trump is exhausted’ isn’t working.”…
https://www.yahoo.com/news/calling-trump-fascist-not-effective-150548787.html

@DrewHLive: Kamala Harris is now flip flopping saying “it’s time to stop pointing fingers” just days after she doubled down on calling Trump a fascist. https://x.com/DrewHLive/status/1851411941740232972

@jenvanlaar: Kamala Harris “closing argument” speech thread… plus my hot takes
Harris: “We know who Donald Trump is… he sent at this spot nearly four years ago and sent an armed mob to the US Capitol to overturn the will of the people in a free and fair election…. Americans died as a result of that attack… the drive to protect hardworking Americans who aren’t always seen or heard and deserve a voice… and I can tell you that’s the kind of president I will be… World leaders see Trump as an easy mark.”  https://x.com/jenvanlaar/status/1851408347599421565

As Harris gave her ‘closing argument’: NBC’s @gabegutierrez: Pres. Biden tonight: “Donald Trump has no character. He doesn’t give a damn about the Latino community…just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage?… The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters.”   https://x.com/SteveGuest/status/1851421311785959703

DJT was in Allentown, PA while Kamala Harris delivered her ‘closing argument’ in DC.

Trump on MSG rally criticism: ‘It was love for our country,’ Nazi comparisons ‘terrible to say’
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/trump-news-conference-im-running-plan-save-america

@bennyjohnson: TRUMP ON KAMALA: “After two assassination attempts in just over three months her lies and her slander are very shameful and inexcusable…”  https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1851286353117368690

Before Biden was deposed, the MSM reported that Biden could not campaign on his record; so, The Big Guy would campaign on abortion and Trump is Hitler-like. This is now Kamala’s campaign.

@RNCResearch: A deeply unwell, angry Biden threatens President Trump: “I’d like to take that guy for a swim out there.”  https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1851330191760507175

Trump will be ‘seizing the assets of criminal gangs and drug cartels’ if re-elected, he says https://trib.al/BZFgkqd

@GOPoversight: WHISTLEBLOWER DISCLOSURES ABOUT WALZ’S CCP TIES
Because of DHS’s lack of compliance with our legal subpoena and unwillingness to cooperate in good faith, @RepJamesComer is releasing a small portion of the Department’s internal communications received from a whistleblower about Governor Tim Walz.
    The information shows DHS officials with subject matter expertise discussing the CCP’s targeting of Governor Walz on the same day VP Kamala Harris picked him to be her running mate.
   A whistleblower has provided further information to the Committee that indicates officials from DHS’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis and Homeland Security Investigations have been involved in the Department’s investigative and/or intelligence work connected with the CCP, the state of Minnesota, and Governor Walz. https://x.com/GOPoversight/status/1851270777628168514

@OversightPR: After requesting @GovTimWalz ‘s background investigation form, we learned it has “likely [been] destroyed [due to] retention policy.” See this thread on Walz’s CCP connections and how he and his appointees have taken positions aligned with CCP goals.
https://x.com/OversightPR/status/1851274588610613702

@stclairashley: Bezos’ last X post was kindness after the Trump assassination attempt. That was the same day WaPo writers ran as far away from the truth as humanly possible with the “Trump escorted after loud noises” headline. His own employees seem to have radicalized him towards truth seeking.

Kamala Harris silences raucous Michigan rally-goers with bizarre joke: ‘Shout your own name’
Vice President Kamala Harris pulled the plug on the crowd’s energy during a Michigan rally on Monday after a bizarre request that left her supporters in stunned silence… “Now I want each of you to shout your own name. Do that,” Harris demanded. The befuddled crowd went almost silent as the vice president laughed at the confusion she created…. https://t.co/cmgtccDMXM

Tim Walz’s wife argues putting tampons in all school bathrooms part of helping kids learn to read
‘If you’re talking about learning to read and closing gaps then you better take away the barriers for that. If that’s tampons, then that’s tampons,’ Gwen Walz said… (Not a parody!) https://t.co/5TvO7HK5cx

News coverage of Trump and Harris greatly favors vice president while 85% trashes Trump: Study https://t.co/L0oqiIBfaA

George W. Bush’s daughter, Barbara, endorses Kamala Harris, campaigns with VP (DJT destroyed the Bush Dynasty and their political viability.) https://trib.al/sK0iJoi

@seanmdav: This is a MONSTER story from @MZHemingway about how she randomly became an eyewitness to Jake Tapper, Jim Sciutto, and James Clapper launching the Russian collusion hoax together.  It’s a story about what happened on a CNN set in January 2017 that’s never been told before…

Jake Tapper Is Lying About CNN’s Key Role in The Russia Collusion Hoax
Tapper and CNN are causing serious harm to the country with their revisionist history of their own key role in the Russia collusion hoax. It’s become a matter of conscience that I stop hiding what I witnessed at CNN…
    Sciutto was a former Obama administration political appointee in the State Department. It wasn’t clear if he was saying that Clapper had leaked to him or one of his three co-authors, a Clapper aide had leaked to CNN, or merely that Clapper knew Comey or one of his aides was leaking to CNN…
    After we were done that day, Tapper came up to me on the roof — something he rarely did when I saw him at CNN — and told me that he really wanted to get me on his Sunday show. I perceived this as an attempt to keep me quiet about what I had witnessed. It failed, and I began writing immediately about how the dossier story was an information operation being fueled by top officials in the intelligence community… If I knew enough to do what I did based on that tiny interaction between Jim Sciutto and Jake Tapper, Jake Tapper sure as hell knew enough to not take part in the regime’s information operation he promulgated every day for the next few years.
    Tapper is trying to hide now, inaccurately saying he merely reported what government operatives leaked to him. What he did was much worse. But even if that was all he did, it would be indefensible…
    Jake Tapper wasn’t “covering” an FBI investigation into Russia collusion. He was willing to work with them in an information operation alleging that the 2016 election was stolen. If I knew it was all a big scam by Jan. 12, 2017, he knew even earlier…
https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/29/jake-tapper-is-lying-about-cnns-key-role-in-the-russia-collusion-hoax/

Megyn Kelly blasts Michelle Obama for criticizing America: ‘She has everything because of us!’
‘I’m so sick and tired of Michelle Obama whining about how racist and sexist America is,’ an annoyed Kelly said. ‘We made her rich, famous and beloved beyond any measure.’… https://trib.al/3A9lDJ2

@Heminator: Harris campaign has a discord server coordinating a volunteer army to manipulate social media sites to artificially boost their popularity, spread election disinformation, and skirt election laws.
First of a three-part investigation by @reddit_lies.

The Inside Story of How the Kamala Harris Campaign Manipulates Reddit (And Breaks the Rules) to Control the Platform –https://thefederalist.com/2024/10/29/busted-the-inside-story-of-how-the-kamala-harris-campaign-manipulates-reddit-and-breaks-the-rules-to-control-the-platform/

An FBI agent who investigated multiple Jan. 6 cases contributed more than $7,000 to Democrats, including President Joe Biden’s 2020 campaign. https://t.co/2yCqnEM1aK

@C__Herridge: IRS Whistleblowers Involved in Hunter Biden Tax Case Reveal IRS, DOJ, and FBI Knew Laptop “Was Real” Immediately; Claim Prosecutors Demanded They Not Ask Questions About Joe Biden Ahead of 2020 Election –  “There were a lot of overt investigative steps that we were not allowed to take because we had an upcoming election.”
    “The prosecutors…told us that they didn’t want to ask about ‘The Big Guy.’”
     “We corroborated that ‘The Big Guy’ was Joe Biden. Yes.”
     “There was no question ever that ‘The Big Guy’ was referring to Joe Biden.”
     “It was for the purpose of affecting that [2020] election.”
https://x.com/C__Herridge/status/1851251838693081288

@bennyjohnson: I was just informed the New York Times is writing a hit piece on me… I’ve instructed my attorney to send a letter to the NYT preparing them for a defamation lawsuit if they slander my business and constitutionally protected right to free speech and opinion. This may be the most expensive story NYT ever publishes… We are not the Romney, Bush, Cheney, McConnell Republicans who cower in the corner wetting ourselves over the threat of a NYT piece. We fight back. Thank you for supporting our work. We will win.

Yesterday, Steve Bannon was released from prison for ignoring a Jan 6 panel subpoena.

@SaveUSAKitty: Here’s STEVE BANNON “Nancy Pelosi sent me to a federal prison…as a Political prisoner…to make sure that she tried to tamp down the power of this show…and also to break me. Nancy Pelosi, take out your Number 2 PRENCIL and write this down…this show has never been more powerful, the voices behind it have never been more powerful, the audience has never been more powerful, and we’re going to deliver a KNOCKOUT blow to your Progressive insanity on 5 November…”
https://x.com/SaveUSAKitty/status/1851268691922465214

RNC files lawsuit over voters reportedly being turned away in Bucks County, PA – GOP Chairman Whatley (County officials turned voters away at 1:45 PM ET, citing ‘slow process and long lines.’ By law, polls were to be open until 5 PM ET on PA’s last day of early voting.

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

DEMOCRATS in trouble with Biden’s stupid comment that all of Trump supporters are garbage!

“I Strongly Disagree”: Harris Distances From Biden ‘Garbage’ Comment

Wednesday, Oct 30, 2024 – 10:45 AM

Update (1045ET): Vice President Kamala Harris has responded to Biden’s ‘garbage’ comment – saying “first of all, he clarified his comment” – referring to the ham-fisted attempt to suggest he was talking about one Trump supporter, Tony Hinchcliffe, and not what we all heard.

“I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for,” Harris continued, before launching into word salad mode.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851634227177259312

Oh really?

h/t @mgEyesOpen

* * *

Update (2147ET): President Trump has responded to Biden’s comments, saying “Remember Hillary, she said deplorable… Garbage I think is worse.”

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851439037485089241

Does Harris agree?

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/1851439616039272827

And of course, the media is already spinning this – suggesting that Biden said ‘Trump’s supporter’s‘ – singular, as if he was only referring to Hinchcliffe.

https://twitter.com/JohnLeFevre/status/1851442052090806314

Trump running mate JD Vance responded as well – calling out journalists trying to spin this:

https://twitter.com/JDVance/status/1851430778254876701

https://twitter.com/JDVance/status/1851431364421435819

https://twitter.com/ChrisCillizza/status/1851437199096430763

You may have heard. During Donald Trump’s 7-hour, celebrity-packed rally at Madison Square Garden, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage,” in reference to the US territory’s well known problem with overflowing landfills.

The left went into absolute hysterics,

https://twitter.com/i/status/1850654173676568971

Liberal comedian Jon Stewart was the voice of reason…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851127881402855864

And just when you thought the dust had settled, President Biden called 80 million Americans human garbage:

“Donald Trump has no character. He doesn’t give a damn about the Latino community…just the other day, a speaker at his rally called Puerto Rico a floating island of garbage?…The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters,” reports NBC News’ Gabe Gutierrez.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851421311785959703

Update: Then he lied about it!

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851437239072415838

Even CNN isn’t buying it…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851433954965955048

Meanwhile, Puerto Rican Trump supporters responded with a pro-Trump caravan…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851360303575183715

Puerto Rican politician Zoraida Buxó came out for Trump at a Tuesday rally…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1851396312786161840

Stay classy, Biden…

https://twitter.com/seanmdav/status/185141833973988994

https://twitter.com/ScottFishman/status/1851418737296986579

GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING KAREN KINGSTON

Bird Flu Genocide & Food Destruction Locked In – Karen Kingston

By Greg Hunter On October 30, 2024 In Political Analysis3 Comments

By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com

Karen Kingston is a biotech analyst and former Pfizer employee who was one of the first to warn about the nightmare of the CV19 mRNA nanoparticle bioweapon vaccines. She is out with a new warning just as powerful. It’s a warning not to take the coming Bird Flu vaccine because it is untested, not safe and will be deadly for many. Kingston warns, “The FDA is basically on record stating we are going to provide vaccines without getting any safety data, efficacy data or immune data to see how the body is going to respond. We are not going to even look at animal studies before we release these on the American people, and we will tell them that they are safe and effective. This is literally the definition of biowarfare.”

Kingston says the new Bird Flu vaccines (H5N1) are going to be far more dangerous and deadly than the CV19 bioweapon vaccines. Kingston says, “Bird Flu vaccines are available now, and they are fairly innocuous. I think they are doing that on purpose so that people think the flu vaccines are safe. . . . So, when the real pandemic hits, they will trust the science and say, well, I already got a flu vaccine, and nothing happened to me. What’s the big deal if I get another one?

This is going to work against a disease that has a 50% chance of killing me. That’s the psyop going on right now.”

Would Karen Kingston take the bioweapon Bird flu vax they are going to roll out in the coming H5N1 Bird Flu pandemic? Kingston says, “No. There is a good chance it’s going to kill a lot of people. It’s going to cause hospitalizations and death. It’s disturbing what these experts are saying. . . . This is locked and loaded, and it’s more about unleashing the vaccines than it is about the virus. . . . In their own words and printed material, they are saying the disease causing viruses are in the vaccines. . . .I think they know what they are doing, and they think we are all stupid. This says ‘Highly pathogenic.’ That means disease causing, deadly; avian, meaning bird; virus, means pathogen. It causes disease. It’s the virus vaccine, highly, disease causing Bird Flu H5 viruses in a vaccine. This is what the introduction says from Dr. Jerry Weir of the FDA. . . . We can assume these are dangerous. I hate to say unsafe because that is not accurate. We should call these danger profiles and not safety profiles. . . . This is insanity. This is biowarfare.”

The people most at risk from the rollout of the H5N1 Bird Flu bioweapon vax for the already planned pandemic are the people vaccinated with the CV19 bioweapon that destroyed their immune systems. According to Kingston, you are going to see waves of deaths after the H5N1 Bird Flu vax is injected into the CV19 vaxed. On top of that, Kingston predicts everyone will see the food supply destroyed on purpose by the FDA and CDC. Kingston says, “They are going to annihilate the food supply. . . . I don’t know if many people know this, but recently over 10 million pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry was recalled for listeria without one case of people getting sick. . . . I write on my Substack about how the FDA is trying to take control of the food supply. Grocery stores can use their rewards program to report customers who purchased food contaminated with a bacteria or virus. . . . They can find out that you bought contaminated chicken, and they will tell you that you must quarantine because you could be carrying this virus for three weeks without knowing it.”

In closing, Kingston says, “These Bird Flu (H5N1) vaccines have been stockpiled since 2022, and when this rolls out, we are going to see another wave of genocide. You can take this information to the bank.”

There is much more in the 1-hour & 3-minute in-depth interview.

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with renowned biotech analyst Karen Kingston as she gives a groundbreaking warning on the untested, unsafe and deadly Bird Flu (H5N1) bioweapon vaccine that is coming soon for 10.29.24.

(To Donate to USAWatchdog.com, Click Here)

To get a “Medical Emergency Kit” or “Contagion Emergency Kit” from The Wellness Company and get at least $30 off, click here.

After the Interview:

usawatchdog.com/bird-flu-genocide-food-destruction-locked-in-karen-kingston

To read the free report called “The Good & Bad News About the WHO’s 2024-25 H5N1 Panic-Pandemic” from Kingston’s Substack, click here.

There is some free information on Kingston’s Substack.

To support Kingston financially, you can become a subscriber to her Substack by clicking here.

If you want to donate to Kingston electronically so she can continue informing the public, please click here.

If you want to make a snail mail donation to Karen Kingston, please do so at:

miFight Inc.

SEE YOU THURSDAY