NOV 1/GOLD CLOSED UP A TINY $0.15 TO $2739.75 WHILE SILVER WAS DOWN 10 CENTS TO $32.55//PLATINUM WAS UP $0.80 TO $995.10 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $7.05//USA JOBS REPORT FOR SEPT IS OUT AND IT SHOWED A HUGE DOWNFALL IN JOBS//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT: CHRIS POWELL ON GOLD MANIPULATION/FRAUD PUBLISHED BY THE JERUSALEM POST//GOOD COMMODITY REPORT ON ALUMINA//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH//LOOKS LIKE HEZBOLLAH HAS HAD ENOUGH WITH MAJOR DEPLETIONS IN ROCKETS AND MEN//ISRAEL VS HAMAS//COVID UPDATES//VACCINE INJURY REPORT//SLAY NEWS ETC/ DR PAUL ALEXANDER//USA MANUFACTURING SURVEY FALLS BADLY/JOBS REPORT/SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
072 C GOLDMAN 3 104 C MIZUHO 1 118 C MACQUARIE FUT 100 132 C SG AMERICAS 4 190 H BMO CAPITAL 79 323 C HSBC 44 363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 222 435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 566 624 H BOFA SECURITIES 407 657 C MORGAN STANLEY 9 661 C JP MORGAN 21 23 690 C ABN AMRO 28 732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 15 737 C ADVANTAGE 78 21 905 C ADM 5
TOTAL: 813 813 MONTH TO DATE: 1,368
MONTH TO DATE: 12,670
JPMorgan stopped 23/813
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 813 NOTICES FOR 81,300 OZ 2.528 TONNES
total notices so far: 1368 contracts for 136,800 Oz (4.255 tonnes)
FOR OCT
SILVER NOTICES: 24 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.120 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 551 for 2.755 million oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $.15 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL 0F 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.79 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 891,79 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.10 AT THE SLV
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY INTO THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 481.189 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 495 CONTRACTS TO 155,148 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS FAIR LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GIGANTIC LOSS OF $1.26 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 140 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE THE GIGANTIC LOSS OF $1.26 IN PRICE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE WITH HUGE SUCCESS YESTERDAY. WE HAD SOME SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE THURSDAY.. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 635 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUMONGOUS 1595 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AND THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A SMALL 140 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: A HUMONGOUS 1595 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $1.26) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 140 TOTAL OI CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE 635 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 155,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING: 2.965 MILLION OZ
//NEW STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 2.965 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ FAIR SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1595 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: removed 104 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS OCT. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF OCT
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAYS, total 635 contracts: OR 3.175 MILLION OZ (635 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 3.175 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 3.175 MILLLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 495 CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS OF $1.26 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 635 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 2.810 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 155,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 2.965 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A SMALL GAIN OF 140 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1595 CONTRACTS ( WILL BE USED FOR THURSDAY’S TRADING),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION, AS OUR CROOKS NEEDED TO RAID TO REWARD BANKERS ON FINAL OPTIONS EXPIRY DAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (1595) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING TODAY.
WE HAD 24 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.120 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 15,853 OI CONTRACTS TO 568,592 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 3175 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (15,853 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $49.55 IN PRICE THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S MONSTER 73,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 4.762 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 2.488 TONNES + 2.27 TONNES = 4.762 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $49.55 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 8739 OI CONTRACTS (27.181 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS CONTINUED ON LAST FRIDAY, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S MONSTER QUEUE JUMP OF 73,100 OZ)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 7114 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 568,592
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8739 CONTRACTS WITH 15,853 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 7114 EFP OI CONTRACTS WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 8739 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 4188 CONTRACTS, WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY PLUS WE ALSO HAD FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (7114 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE VERY STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 15,893 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 8739 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 73,100 OZ QUEUE JUMP
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION AND SPREADER LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE WITH HUGE SUCCES THURSDAY , AND WITH CONSIDERABLE NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED AS THEY WERE REWARDED THURSDAY AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4) VERY STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4188 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 7114 CONTRACTS OF 711,400 OZ OR 22.127 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 7114 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 22.127 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 22.127 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.062% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV. 22.127 TONNES
NOV
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 498 CONTRACTS OI TO 155,148 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 635 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 635 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 635 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 498 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 635 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A SMALL SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 140 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 0.700 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $1.26 LOSS IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
FRIDAY MORNING THURSDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.81 PTS OR 0.24%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 189.10 PTS OR 0.93%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1,027.58 PTS OR 2.63%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.50%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1226 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1275// Oil UP TO 70.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED 15,853 CONTRACTS TO 568,592 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $49.55 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST CONSIDERABLE IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4188).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 157+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! THIS WEEK HAS BEEN A STELLAR WEEK FOR GOLD PRICE INCREASES.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S GAIN IN PRICE AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING. HOWEVER MANY LONGS WERE CLIPPED ON THURSDAY’S RAID (AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW). THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 7114 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 7114 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 7114 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG TOTAL OF 8739 CONTRACTS IN THAT 7114 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 15,853 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE DROP IN PRICE OF $49.55 THURSDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SIZED 4188 CONTRACTS, WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (2,488 TONNES) WHICH IS GOOD FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 46 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 2.488 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $49.55/)//AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION THURSDAY COUPLED WITH FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION BUT THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 27.181 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S WHOPPING QUEUE JUMP OF 731 CONTRACTS OR 73,100 OZ (2.27 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD.
//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES + 2.27 TONNES = 4.762 TONNNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 2.488 TONNES + 2.27 TONNES = 4.762 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $49.55
WE HAD 3175 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 8739 CONTRACTS OR 873,900 OZ (27.181 TONNES)
1. INTO LOOMIS: 65,909.55 OZ 2050 KILOBARS) 2. INTO INT. DELAWARE: 1060.982 OZ (33 KILOBARS)
TOTAL; 66,970.1 OR 2083 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today
813 notice(s) 81300 OZ 2/528 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
163 contracts 16300 OZ 0.5069 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
1368 notices 136,800oz 4.255 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 2 customer deposits
i) Into Loomis: oz (2050 kilobars)
ii) Into INT. DELAWARE: 1060.982 oz (33 kilobars)
total deposits 66,970.533 oz
withdrawals: 0
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 976 contracts having GAINED 176 contracts. We had 555 contracts served on Thursday so we gained a huge 731 contract gain as they underwent a massive queue jump (2.27 TONNES OF GOLD)
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 19,527CONTRACTS TO 418,362
JANUARY GAINED ITS FIRST 11 CONTRACTS
FEBRUARY GAINED 1922 CONTRACTS TO 91,420 .
We had 813 contracts filed for today representing 81,300 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 21 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 813 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 23 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1368 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(976 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (813 x 100 oz per contract( equals 153,100 OZ OR 4.762 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (1368 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (976 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (813 x 100 oz which equals 153,100 oz (4.762 TONNES) +
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 4.762 TONNES WHICH IS GOOD FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,133,368.992 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,692,100.435/// 239.25tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,441,268.557 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,087.753 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 189.35 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 1. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE NOV 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
627,947.065oz BRINKS INT. DELAWARE
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
611,126.000 oz
asahi
No of oz served today (contracts)
24 CONTRACT(S) (120,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
42 contracts (210,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
551 Contracts (2.755 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits
i) Into Loomis 65,909.55 oz
ii) Into Int. Delaware: 1060.983
total customer deposits 66,970.533 oz
We had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawal nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/308.581million or 43.42%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.072MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 308.581million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 66 OPEN INTEREST FOR A HUGE LOSS OF 496 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 527 NOTICES FILED ON THURSDAY SO WE GAINED A STRONG 31 CONTRACTS OR 155,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP IN A DESPERATE SEARCH FOR PHYSICAL METAL OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2068 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 121,873 CONTRACTS
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 18 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 900
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 24 for 0.120 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 103,128 huge
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 551x 5,000 oz = 2.755 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (66) and the number of notices served upon today (24)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month: 551 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(66) number of notices served upon today minus (24)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 2.965 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 2.965 million oz.
There are 70.077 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 891.79 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ
OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
On Friday, Peter dropped another episode of the Peter Schiff Show. He comments on an IMF conference in Europe, the newsworthy BRICS conference held in Russia, and the latest political proposals made in the presidential race, namely Donald Trump floating the idea of replacing income taxes with tariffs and Kamala Harris taking aim at subscription services.
First, Peter addresses the turbulence in mining stocks. Newmont suffered a major blow after missing earnings, and the sector in general was down this week:
“Even though gold was positive on the week, gold stocks got crushed. The GDX, which is the seniors, the biggest index, was down 5.3% on the week. … But the reason was Newmont Mining, the biggest gold company in the world and the only gold company in the S&P 500, which reported earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Newmont closed the day down 14%.
Despite this, Peter is optimistic that Newmont is still a valuable company. They slightly missed profit forecasts, but are setting new earnings records and matched revenue expectations:
“It was actually the best quarter in five years. And if you compare the quarter to the same quarter a year ago, they earned six times as much money—way more than the prior quarter. They’re still on a path to make the most money in the history of Newmont Mining, and they’re still going to have a record year for earnings. The reason the stock got killed was because they missed. They were supposed to earn 86 cents on the quarter, and they earned 81 cents—less than a 6% miss. The revenues were about in line.”
Turning to the aforementioned IMF conference, Peter lambasts Janet Yellen, who is deluded enough to think the country is in a sound fiscal position:
“[Yellen] is the secretary of the debt, not the secretary of the treasury, because we don’t have any treasury—the treasury is bare. All we got is debt. She’s basically in charge of managing the debt and getting people to buy it. What’s your plan? How are you going to convince people to buy this stuff? Janet Yellen’s response was, ‘We’re just going to make sure that we stay on a sound fiscal path.’ How do we stay on a path that we’re not even on? We left soundness decades ago. We can’t stay on anything.”
“I would love nothing more than to go back to that tax system, but we have to do it honestly, which means we have to cancel a lot of government. We have to eliminate agencies and departments. We have to really shrink the government in order to get back to the freedom and prosperity that we had at that time, which we could have again. I think it’s very unlikely, given the politics.”
Finally, Peter turns to the major geopolitical news of the week: the BRICS summit. After adding four new members (Iran, Ethiopia, Egypt, and the UAE), the leaders of BRICS met in Russia to plan a gradual move away from the dollar. When the US continually erodes the value of the dollar and wields it against geopolitical rivals, it does make sense to consider alternative currencies:
“First of all, it makes no sense. Why should two countries that don’t use dollars transact in the dollar? Just pick one of the currencies that’s involved. You’ve got two countries that have currencies. Why involve the United States, a third party, who’s not even involved in the transaction? Why use our dollars? Use the currencies that you’re actually transacting in. And so that is the goal, for the BRICS nations to phase out the use of the US dollar and use their own currencies.”
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3.CHRIS POWELL AND DAILY GOLD/SILVER DISPATCHES
a must read
Chris Powell/JerusalemPost
Gold’s Rise, Central Banks, and BRICS Influence with Chris Powell
Chris Powell, a veteran in the gold market, suggests that central banks are manipulating gold prices.
By PRNOVEMBER 1, 2024 15:22
Gold’s Rise, Central Banks, and BRICS Influence with Chris Powell(photo credit: PR)
In a recent interview with Sprott Money, Chris Powell, a prominent figure in the precious metals field, delved into the factors driving the surge in gold prices. Powell, known for his work with the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA), offered a unique perspective on the role of central banks and the emerging influence of the BRICS nations.
Central Banks: A Double-Edged Sword
Powell expressed surprise at the significant rise in gold prices, particularly given the historical efforts of central banks to suppress the yellow metal. However, he noted a recent shift in their strategy. “Central banks have turned from netsellers and lenders of gold to very big net purchasers,” he explained. This shift, coupled with their potential involvement in manipulating the gold market, has contributed to the upward price trajectory.
BRICS and Gold:
The growing influence of the BRICS nations, particularly China and Russia, has also played a role in the gold market. Powell highlighted the potential for these nations to challenge the dominance of the US dollar and promote gold as an alternative reserve currency. “The world is changing,” he said. “Countries are slowly moving away from the dollar and rapidly moving into gold and silver.”
A Historical Perspective
To illustrate the historical context, Powell referenced the 1974 meeting between Henry Kissinger and Thomas O. Enders, where they discussed the need to prevent Western European allies from returning to a gold standard. This historical event underscores the enduring interest of powerful nations in controlling the gold market.
Looking Ahead
As we move forward, Powell believes that the combination of central bank activity, BRICS influence, and global economic uncertainty will continue to support gold prices. He advises investors to consider adding physical gold and silver to their portfolios as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.
In conclusion, Chris Powell’s insights provide valuable context for understanding the current gold market dynamics. While central banks may be attempting to influence the price, the underlying fundamentals, such as geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, remain strong drivers for gold.
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 196 ANDREW MAGUIRE
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: ALUMINA
“No Signs Of A Turnaround”: Alumina Prices Near Record As Global Supply Chain Snarls Mount
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 04:15 AM
A squeezed global aluminum supply chain has sent the price of the metal’s critical ingredient, alumina, to the brink of a new record high on Wednseday of $707.59 a ton, nearly eclipsing the 2018 high of $707.75.
Since the mid-point of the year, supply chain snarls and production disruptions in major alumina-exporting countries have sparked shortages. Countries critical to the aluminum supply chain include Guinea, Australia and China.
Mounting supply chain woes from the West African country of Guinea, a top source of seaborne-traded bauxite that supplies over 70% of China’s imports, come amid continued trade disputes with local government customs officials.
Meanwhile, Australia, another large producer of bauxite and alumina, has seen exports move lower on climate change policies and sliding natural gas supplies.
“There are no signs of a turnaround in spot alumina prices within this year,” Gao Yin, an analyst with consultant Horizon Insights, said who was quoted by Bloomberg, adding that aluminum inventories at Chinese smelters have been declining, but “the market hasn’t considered output cuts as a base-case scenario yet.”
Data from Fastmarkets shows alumina prices are back to near-record highs of around $707 a ton.
Earlier this week, UBS Dominic Schnider told clients that increasing supply chain concerns surrounding “bauxite and alumina” and another round of Chinese stimulus “have provided underlying support for higher aluminum prices.”
Schnider said, “Supply challenges on the bauxite and alumina side (site closure, force majeure, and export blockages) from Australia to Guinea are likely to be a key issue into the year-end.”
Morgan Stanley recently told clients that stresses were materializing in the global aluminum supply chain, with China facing challenges in alumina and bauxite supply.
Just imagine what happens to aluminum markets if and when China fires the mega bazooka stimulus package…
.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.81 PTS OR 0.24%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 189.10 PTS OR 0.93%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 1,027.58 PTS OR 2.63%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.50%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1226 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1275// Oil UP TO 70.60 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1226
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.1275
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 7.81 PTS OR 0.24%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 189.10 PTS OR 0.93%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 1,027.51 POINTS OR 2.63%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 103.99 EURO FALLS TO 1.0864 DOWN 20 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +0.941 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.86…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR UP this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3980 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.682 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.113
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.304
3j Gold at $2752.80 /Silver at: 32.82 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 63/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 98.00
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 152.64 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.941% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8674 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9424 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.294 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.467 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.1850 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.32…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4865 UP 3 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.247 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.037 DOWN 3 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Rise Ahead Of Payrolls As Tech Stocks Rebound
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 08:18 AM
Futures are higher on the first day of the month and ahead of what may be a very poor jobs report, with MegaCap tech leading. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were 0.4% with the benchmark on track for its worst weekly performance in more than a year amid unease over the outlook for artificial intelligence and cloud computing following results from Microsoft and Meta; Nasdaq futures gained 0.5%, as AMZN and INTC surged 5.8% and 5.7%, respectively, after strong earnings while AAPL is down -1% after its guidance disappointed; NVDA is rebounding and is up +2.0% this morning. Bond yields are flat, and the USD is fractionally higher. Commodities are mixed, with oil higher (WTI +2.9%) amid renewed tension in the Middle East, base metals lower, and precious metals modestly higher. The main event today is the jobs report, but we also get the Mfg ISM, US Mfg PMI, and Construction Spending.
In premarket trading, Amazon.com and Intel shares surged on optimistic earnings results, while Apple declined after reporting softer demand in China, a miss in wearables and services revenue and disappointed with its holiday quarter guidance. Oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron both rose after earnings beats. Boeing gained after the aircraft maker reached a tentative agreement to end a labor dispute. Here are all the notable movers this morning:
Abbott Laboratories (ABT US) shares rise 5.1% after a St. Louis jury cleared the company, along with a unit of Reckitt Benckiser, over claims they hid risks their premature-infant formulas can cause a bowel disease that severely sickened a baby boy. It was the firms’ first trial win in litigation over the products.
ADMA Biologics (ADMA) shares rise 14% after KPMG agreed to be the biotech’s auditor, according to a filing, which analysts said should remove an overhang on the stock.
Apple (AAPL) shares fall 1.7% after the iPhone maker reported fourth-quarter results that were weaker than expected on notable metrics, including its Services business and revenue in the intensely competitive China market.
Amazon.com (AMZN) shares rise 7.1% after the e-commerce and cloud computing company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a solid outlook. Analysts cited margins, AWS and the international retail business as highlights of the quarter.
Atlassian (TEAM) shares soar 21% after the enterprise software developer forecast revenue for its fiscal second quarter ahead of expectations and also beat first-quarter adjusted earnings consensus. KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded the company to overweight, noting that it had cleared a high bar.
Globalstar (GSAT) shares surge 56% after the company agreed to deliver expanded services to Apple over a new mobile satellite services network, including a new satellite constellation, more ground infrastructure and increased global licensing.
Intel (INTC) shares gain 5.4% after the chipmaker reported third-quarter revenue that beat the average analyst estimate, raising optimism about the company’s turnaround effort. Analysts were positive about the quarter, but said that expectations were low going into the results.
PayPal (PYPL) shares dip 0.5% after Phillip Securities downgraded the payments technology company to accumulate from buy, citing recent stock performance.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) shares fall 3.3%, putting the stock on track to drop for a third consecutive day, since Ernst & Young resigned as the company’s auditor, citing concerns about governance and transparency.
Today’s payrolls report (full preview here) could show job growth weakening, after the core PCE yesterday posted its biggest monthly gain since April. That muddied the water ahead of next week’s Fed policy meeting, with swaps pricing in 20 basis points of easing, down from 24 at the start of the week. Investors are also bracing for next week’s US election, with the VIX rising to levels last seen during the August market upheaval.
The “highly anticipated employment report, a busy week of earnings that includes a handful of the Magnificent Seven names, rising yields and, of course, next week’s U.S. election are all contributing to building angst in the market, not to mention the FOMC meeting,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial. “We may need to wait until after Election Day for volatility to normalize as the VIX futures curve points to potential elevated near-term turbulence for stocks.”
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.7%, snapping three straight days of declines after they posted the worst monthly drop in a year on Thursday; it remains on track for its biggest weekly drop in two months. Gains for energy stocks helped prop up the gauge, with Shell Plc, Total Energies SE and BP Plc adding more than 1%. Consumer products also gained, boosted by Reckitt after a baby formula trial win. Reckitt Benckiser soared 10% after a unit of the household goods company was cleared by a jury over claims it hid health risks of its premature-infant formula. Only the travel & leisure sector is declining. Here are some of the most notable movers:
Reckitt shares gain as much as 12%, their steepest rise since March 2000, while Abbott Labs rises in US premarket trading after a St. Louis jury cleared the companies over claims they hid risks their premature-infant formulas can cause a bowel disease that severely sickened a baby boy.
HelloFresh shares rally as much as 11% to the highest since March after JPMorgan raises recommendation to overweight from neutral, saying earnings estimates are bottoming out while the stock’s valuation has become attractive following the meal-kit provider’s strategy pivot to shore up its profitability.
Universal Music shares rise as much as 5.6% after reporting a stronger-than-expected growth in revenue generated from music subscriptions.
Scout24 shares rise as much as 4.1%, hitting a new record high. Analysts at Barclays increased their price target on the stock by 10% after the online property platform said annual revenue growth will be at the upper-end of its guidance range as it reported a beat on Thursday.
Boohoo shares gain as much as 6.7% after the online fashion retailer appointed Dan Finley, chief executive officer of the firm’s Debenhams unit, as group CEO.
Kalmar shares gain as much as 12% to reach a record high after the Finnish industrial crane firm reported blow-out earnings. DNB flagged beats on most key metrics.
Meyer Burger shares sink as much as 25% to a record low after the Swiss solar panel maker reported a wider first-half loss.
Fugro shares fall as much as 21% after the Dutch geological data firm’s third-quarter earnings missed estimates, with revenue coming under pressure amid “short-term market-driven challenges” in the Americas, as well as conflicts in the Middle East, according to a release.
Fielmann shares fall as much as 11%, the steepest intraday drop in two years, after the German eyewear firm’s third-quarter results missed estimates.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined, set to cap their fifth-straight week of losses, as a stream of earnings reports failed to lift sentiment ahead of next week’s US election and a key meeting of China’s legislative body. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 0.8% Friday, on course for its longest weekly losing streak in more than two years. Japanese stocks fell the most since Sept. 30, after the yen strengthened against the dollar following Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments; benchmarks in Australia and South Korea also slipped. Tech megacaps including TSMC and SoftBank were among the biggest drags on the regional gauge. Equity benchmarks rose in Hong Kong after a private survey showed China’s manufacturing activity unexpectedly picked up last month, a sign of stabilization on Beijing’s stimulus blitz. Traders are awaiting a session by the Standing Committee of National People’s Congress over Nov. 4-8, where further fiscal measures may be announced.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rises 0.2%. The yen weakens 0.5%, extending declines after the DPP chief said the BOJ shouldn’t raise interest rates before March. The Swiss franc drops 0.5% after CPI surprised to the downside.
In rates, US Treasuries were steady after minor gains Thursday. But October was the worst month for Treasuries in two years after the heavy selling of the past few weeks that reflected a rethink on US interest rates given signs of resilience in the economy. Front-end yields are higher by 1bp-2bp inside Thursday’s ranges, which included the highest 2- and 5-year yields since July-August. 10-year yields around 4.29% are only slightly cheaper on the day amid similarly muted price action in bunds and gilts; 5s30s spread near 30bp is ~1bp tighter on the day, 13bp on the week UK bonds fell, extending losses this week after the Labour government’s pivotal budget and plans for additional bond sales unleashed a wave of selling. UK 10-year yields rise 2 bps to 4.47%.
In commodities, brent crude futures rose 2% to $74.30 after a report that Iran could be preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days. European stocks gain for the first time in four days, led by energy and personal care names. US equity futures also rise as Amazon and Intel shares rally in premarket post-earnings, offsetting a fall in shares of Apple. Spot gold is steady around $2,746/oz.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures up 0.3% to 5,753.00
STOXX Europe 600 up 0.5% to 507.91
MXAP down 0.6% to 185.03
MXAPJ up 0.2% to 591.43
Nikkei down 2.6% to 38,053.67
Topix down 1.9% to 2,644.26
Hang Seng Index up 0.9% to 20,506.43
Shanghai Composite down 0.2% to 3,272.01
Sensex down 0.7% to 79,389.06
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 8,118.83
Kospi down 0.5% to 2,542.36
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.41%
Euro down 0.2% to $1.0859
Brent Futures up 2.7% to $74.76/bbl
Gold spot up 0.4% to $2,754.19
US Dollar Index up 0.13% to 104.11
Top Overnight News
China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Oct comes in ahead of expectations at 50.3 (up from 49.3 in Sept and higher than the Street’s 49.7 forecast). WSJ
China has slashed its dependency on US food imports, putting it in a better position to withstand increased trade tensions w/Washington. RTRS
South Korea’s conservative President Yoon Suk Yeol is weighing directly providing arms to Ukraine, a potentially consequential shift in the conflict, in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to the Russian front line. FT
Blinken says Israel and Lebanon are making progress on how to implement a UN resolution that could be the foundation for ending the present war. RTRS
Donald Trump sued CBS, alleging it engaged in election interference by airing two different versions of an interview with Kamala Harris. He’s seeking $10 billion in damages. LeBron James endorsed Harris. BBG
Apple shares fell premarket after a tepid sales forecast added to lingering concerns about the China market. Amazon reported strong results in cloud and e-commerce. Intel sparked optimism over its turnaround after its revenue outlook slightly beat. Shares jumped. BBG
We estimate nonfarm payrolls rose by 95k in October, below consensus of +105k and the three-month average of +186k. Alternative measures of employment growth were mixed, and strikes and the recent hurricanes likely weighed on payrolls growth this month. GIR
The oil and gas industry has achieved the biggest labor productivity gains of any US sector over the past decade. Crude output has risen to a record 13.3 million barrels a day, 48% more than Saudi Arabia — all with less than a third of the rigs and far fewer workers than 10 years ago. BBG
Boeing and union leaders representing 33,000 striking workers reached a tentative deal that includes a 38% wage increase over four years and a $12,000 signing bonus, though doesn’t reinstate defined-benefit pension plans. Workers will vote on the proposal Monday. Shares rose premarket. BBG
China’s residential property sales rose in October, the first year-on-year increase of 2024, as the government’s latest stimulus blitz brought back buyers. The value of new-home sales from the 100 biggest real estate companies rose 7.1% from a year earlier to 435.5 billion yuan ($61.2 billion), reversing from a 37.7% slump in September, according to preliminary data from China Real Estate Information Corp. Sales surged 73% from a month earlier. BBG
Earnings
Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 94.93bln (exp. 94.58bln), Products revenue 69.96bln (exp. 69.15bln), iPhone revenue 46.22bln (exp. 45.04bln), Mac revenue: 7.74bln (exp. 7.74bln), iPad revenue: 6.95bln (exp. 7.07bln), Wearables, home, and accessories revenue: 9.04bln (exp. 9.17bln), Service revenue: 24.97bln (exp. 25.27bln), Greater China revenue fell 0.3% Y/Y to 15.03bln (exp. 15.8bln), Co. expects Q1 rev. growth at low to mid-single digits.. -1.1% pre-market
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mixed following the tech-heavy losses stateside and heightened geopolitical concerns, while Chinese markets outperformed after further encouraging manufacturing PMI data. ASX 200 declined with nearly all industries subdued aside from the commodity-related sectors. Nikkei 225 slumped at the open after recent currency strength and the hawkish tone from BoJ Governor Ueda. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI followed suit to yesterday’s official release with a surprise return to expansion territory, while the attention was also on recent earnings reports.
Top Asian News
China National People’s Congress Standing Committee proposed a law amendment for further refining government debt supervision, while it added the provision state council and above county-level governments should report on debt management progress.
IMF expects Asia’s economy to expand by 4.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025 but noted risks to Asia’s economic outlook are tilted to the downside and that an acute risk for Asia is an escalation in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs between major trading partners. Furthermore, it stated that persistent downward price pressures from China can hurt countries with similar export structures and provoke trade tensions, as well as noted that China’s property sector problems have not been addressed comprehensively, leading to plummeting consumer confidence.
Japan’s Opposition, DPP Chief Tamaki says “the BoJ should not raise interest rates for at least half a year”.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.6%) are entirely in the green, with sentiment lifted following strong results from Amazon/Intel which have ultimately been able to outmuscle pre-market losses in Apple. European sectors hold a positive bias. Optimised Personal Care tops the pile, lifted by Reckitt after it received a favourable litigation decision. Energy follows close behind, with oil prices firmer amid heightened geopolitical tensions – as such, Travel & Leisure lags. US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.4%, RTY +0.1%) are modestly firmer, and with sentiment on a stronger footing after good results from Amazon and Intel; traders await US NFP/ISM Manufacturing later in the session.
Top European News
Moody’s says the UK budget creates challenges as it warns of a muted UK growth, according to the FT.
S&P says UK fiscal position is constrained following budget announcements; new budget decisions, however, do not have an immediate impact on headline budgetary forecasts for the UK
FX
USD is broadly firmer vs. peers with DXY back above the 104 mark. Today’s main data highlight is of course the US NFP report whereby expectations are for a cooling in the headline rate to 113k amid weather and strike activity distortions; the unemployment rate is not expected to be impacted. For now, DXY is tucked within yesterday’s 103.82-104.21 range.
EUR is softer vs. the USD after a recent run of gains that have been underpinned by firmer growth and inflation metrics from the Eurozone. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.0858 but is holding above Thursday’s low at 1.0843.
After two sessions of losses vs. the USD in the wake of Wednesday’s UK budget, Cable is attempting to stabilise and has managed to make its way back onto a 1.29 handle after drifting as low as 1.2843 Thursday.
After strengthening vs. the USD in the wake of the BoJ policy announcement and subsequent hawkish Ueda press conference yesterday, JPY has returned to its recent trend of losses vs. the USD. USD/JPY has been as high as 152.83.
Antipodeans are both marginally softer vs. the USD in quiet newsflow for both countries.
CHF is the laggard across the majors following soft Swiss inflation data. The release has stoked fears that Switzerland could enter into deflation next year and therefore expectations of a 50bps cut by the SNB have heightened (currently priced at 28%).
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1135 vs exp. 7.1122 (prev. 7.1250).
Fixed Income
USTs are a handful of ticks lower, 110-09+ base matches the week’s opening level and is 6+ ticks clear of Thursday’s WTD base. Focus entirely on Payrolls, forecast range of -10k to +200k, with ISM Manufacturing thereafter.
Bunds are softer as the week’s bearish action continues but thus far we remain clear of the WTD 131.15 trough by around 30 ticks but still in the red for the week as a whole by over a full point.
Gilts opened lower by 21 ticks, stabilised briefly before slipping to a 93.45 trough, a low which is just above yesterday’s 93.18 contract low. As such, while the UK’s 10yr yield is elevated it remains shy of 4.5% and Thursday’s 4.52% YTD high.
UK Treasury official says the scenario currently is very different from the Truss-budget.
Commodities
Crude is on a firmer footing as recent rhetoric brings back risk-premium into the weekend. Focus on an Axios piece that Iran is reportedly preparing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days. Brent’Jan 25 currently near session highs of USD 74.94/bbl.
Spot gold is firmer, though action is minimal with the metal contained into NFP & ISM Manufacturing. Holding just above the USD 2750/oz mark and yet to make any real headway into recovering towards the USD 2790/oz ATH from early-doors yesterday.
Base metals are firmer, owing to the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI making a surprising return to expansionary territory. 3M LME Copper above the USD 9.6k mark, though the move has paused for breath with the docket now light until the US data deluge.
Geopolitics
Lebanese Prime Minister Mikati says “the continuation of Israeli attacks is an indication of Tel Aviv’s rejection of all efforts to cease fire”, via Asharq News
Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei instructed the Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare for attacking Israel, according to NYT citing three Iranian officials familiar with the war planning. Khamenei was said to have made the decision after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defence systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure and a main port in the south.
Israel conducted strikes on Beirut suburbs for the first time in days, while a Lebanese news agency reported that dozens of buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut were flattened by Israeli raids, according to Sky News Arabia.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked with marches a vital target in the south of the occupied territories several times since dawn today, according to Al Jazeera.
US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and reaffirmed the US remains fully prepared to defend US personnel and partners across the region against threats from Iran, according to the Pentagon.
US State Department issued a response to Israel’s cabinet decision on extending indemnification for correspondent banking between Israel and West Bank in which it stated the short-term extension creates another looming crisis by November 30th and called for Israel to swiftly extend indemnification for essential banking relationships for at least a year.
North Korea’s Standing Committee Chairman Choe says we need to strengthen nuclear weapons and improve readiness for a retaliatory nuclear strike.
US Event Calendar
08:30: Oct. Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 100,000, prior 254,000
Oct. Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. -30,000, prior -7,000
Oct. Change in Private Payrolls, est. 70,000, prior 223,000
08:30: Oct. Unemployment Rate, est. 4.1%, prior 4.1%
Oct. Underemployment Rate, prior 7.7%
Oct. Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.7%, prior 62.7%
08:30: Oct. Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.2, prior 34.2
Oct. Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 4.0%, prior 4.0%
Oct. Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
09:45: Oct. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 47.8, prior 47.8
10:00: Sept. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0%, prior -0.1%
10:00: Oct. ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.6, prior 47.2
Oct. ISM Employment, est. 45.0, prior 43.9
Oct. ISM New Orders, est. 47.0, prior 46.1
Oct. ISM Prices Paid, est. 50.0, prior 48.3
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Markets finished October on a rough note yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-1.86%) posting its biggest decline in nearly two months, whilst UK assets lost significant ground thanks to investor concerns about Wednesday’s Budget. We’ll have more to say in our monthly performance review out shortly, but the declines mean that Bloomberg’s global bond aggregate has just experienced its worst month since September 2022, back when inflation was still raging and the Fed was hiking by 75bps each meeting. And for equities it’s been a lacklustre month as well, with the S&P 500 losing ground for the first time in six months.
In terms of the last 24 hours, there were several factors driving the losses, but an important one was disappointment at the big tech earnings after the previous day’s close. That meant the Magnificent 7 (-3.55%) slumped back, with Microsoft (-6.05%) experiencing its biggest daily decline in two years after they announced a weaker forecast for cloud revenue growth. But even though tech stocks led the declines in the S&P 500 (-1.86%), the losses were pretty broad, and the equal-weighted version of the index (-1.10%) also saw its weakest day since early September. Those moves were echoed in Europe too, where the STOXX 600 (-1.20%) fell to its lowest level since mid-August.
After the close, we did hear from Apple and Amazon who delivered a mixed set of results. Apple’s shares fell by close to 2% in post-market trading as it signalled slower sales growth “in the low-to-middle single digits” for the coming quarter, versus analysts’ projections for a 7% increase. By contrast, Amazon gained nearly 6% after delivering a strong profit beat. So with six of the Mag-7 reporting so far, we’ve seen an equal split of positive (Tesla, Alphabet and Amazon) and negative (Microsoft, Apple and Meta) reactions. That’s helped US equity futures to stabilise again this morning, with those on the S&P 500 pointing to a +0.24% gain.
The other big sell-off yesterday happened in the UK, as markets reacted negatively to the extra borrowing announced in the previous day’s budget. Specifically, the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds widened by +9.4bps to 206bps, which is their biggest gap since October 2022, back when Liz Truss was still Prime Minister. Moreover, in absolute terms, the 10yr gilt yield was up +9.5bps to 4.44%, which is its highest level since November 2023, and at the height of the sell-off they’d been up as much as +18bps intraday to 4.53%. So it was only thanks to the late recovery that things weren’t even worse. The effects were clear across other asset classes too, and sterling was the worst-performing G10 currency yesterday, weakening by -0.49% against the US Dollar to $1.2899. And with the extra borrowing announcements, investors also dialled back their expectations for rate cuts from the Bank of England, so by the close they were pricing in 80bps of rate cuts by the June 2025 meeting, down from 86bps on Wednesday.
Bonds also struggled in the rest of Europe, albeit to a much lesser extent than in the UK. This followed an upside surprise in the Euro Area inflation print, which raised doubts as to how quickly the ECB would be able to cut rates in the months ahead. It showed headline inflation was back at the ECB’s target of +2.0% in October (vs. +1.9% expected), while core CPI remained at +2.7% (vs. +2.6% expected). So it contributed to a sell-off in front-end yields as investors priced out the chance of rate cuts, with the 2yr German yield up +2.2bps. Further out the curve, yields were much steadier however, with those on 10yr bunds (-0.1bps) basically unchanged at 2.39%.
Over in the US, there’s still plenty of focus on Tuesday’s election, and yesterday saw markets react to the perception that a Republican sweep scenario was marginally less likely relative to the day before, with the prospects ticking down on prediction markets. At the margins, that was helpful for US Treasuries, given it would be more difficult to enact expansive fiscal plans under divided government, and the 10yr Treasury yield came down -1.6bps to 4.28%. Moreover, it was clear that several Trump trades were unwinding a bit, with Trump Media & Technology Group (-11.72%) falling for a second day, whilst Bitcoin fell -3.98%. Forecasting models remain very tight, with FiveThirtyEight’s model placing a 53% likelihood on a Trump victory.
Investor attention will remain on the US today given the US jobs report for October, which is the last one ahead of the Fed’s decision next week. As a reminder, the last jobs report was much stronger than expected, with nonfarm payrolls at +254k in September, alongside positive revisions to the previous couple of months. This time around though, our US economists are forecasting a weaker +100k print, which partly reflects a 44k drag from striking workers, as well as a negative impact from Hurricane Milton, which struck Florida during the October survey period. They also expect the unemployment rate to tick up a tenth to 4.2%. Click here for their full preview and how to register for their subsequent webinar.
Ahead of that, we did get some decent data on the US labour market yesterday, with the weekly initial jobless claims down to 216k in the week ending October 26 (vs. 230k expected), which is their lowest level since May. We also had the latest PCE inflation report for September, which the measure that the Fed officially target. That showed core PCE was up to a 5-month high of +0.25%, and the year-on-year rate remained at +2.7% (vs. +2.6% expected). But headline PCE was down to just +2.1% on a year-on-year basis, which is the lowest rate since February 2021. In the meantime, the Employment Cost Index for Q3 came in at +0.8% over the quarter, the weakest since Q2 2021.
In geopolitical news, oil prices rose after Axios reported that Israeli intelligence suggested Iran was planning a retaliatory strike against Israel using its proxies in Iraq. Brent crude rose +0.84% yesterday and is trading another +1.34% higher this morning at $74.14/bbl. Meanwhile, gold (-1.57%) saw its biggest retreat since July yesterday, slipping back from its record high on Wednesday.
Overnight in Asia, the sell-off has generally continued for risk assets, with the Nikkei (-2.43%) currently on course for its biggest decline in a month. Indices across other countries have also lost ground, with the KOSPI down -0.27%, and the S&P/ASX 200 down -0.51%. However, markets in mainland China and Hong Kong have outperformed, which comes as the Caixin China manufacturing PMI has moved back into expansionary territory in October with a 50.3 reading (vs. 49.7 expected). So against that backdrop, the Shanghai Comp (+0.33%), the CSI 300 (+0.65%) and the Hang Seng (+1.00%) have all posted solid gains this morning.
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the October jobs report, along with the ISM manufacturing. Otherwise, earnings releases include Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
2B) European report.
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC action mixed as Amazon and Apple diverge, China outperforms post-PMI; US NFP ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 03:05 AM
APAC action mixed as Amazon and Apple diverge, China outperforms on further encouraging PMI data
DXY little changed around 104.00, USD/JPY found support at 152.00
Fixed benchmarks contained after recent marked Gilt-led pressure, awaiting US data
Crude underpinned on reports that Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days.
Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Earnings from ExxonMobil, Chevron, Ares Management, Dominion Energy, Charter Communications, Imperial Oil, LyondellBasell, Cardinal Health & Cboe Global Markets
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were pressured with the Nasdaq 100 leading the declines seen across the major indices as the tech sector suffered heavy losses owing to weakness in mega-cap names including Microsoft (MSFT)(-6%) and Meta (META)(-4.1%) post-earnings. Furthermore, participants digested a slew of mixed data releases, while attention was also on geopolitics after a report that Israeli intelligence suggested Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days.
SPX -1.86% at 5,705, NDX -2.44% at 19,890, DJIA -0.90% at 41,763, RUT -1.63% at 2,197.
Harris campaign official rejected Trump’s claims of election fraud in Pennsylvania and said the system is working as it should to identify a small number of problems.
Apple Inc (AAPL) Q4 2024 (USD): Adj. EPS 1.64 (exp. 1.58), Revenue 94.93bln (exp. 94.58bln), Products revenue 69.96bln (exp. 69.15bln), iPhone revenue 46.22bln (exp. 45.04bln), Mac revenue: 7.74bln (exp. 7.74bln), iPad revenue: 6.95bln (exp. 7.07bln), Wearables, home, and accessories revenue: 9.04bln (exp. 9.17bln), Service revenue: 24.97bln (exp. 25.27bln), Greater China revenue fell 0.3% Y/Y to 15.03bln (exp. 15.8bln), Co. expects Q1 rev. growth at low to mid-single digits.. -1.8% after-hours
APAC stocks traded mixed following the tech-heavy losses stateside and heightened geopolitical concerns, while Chinese markets outperformed after further encouraging manufacturing PMI data.
ASX 200 declined with nearly all industries subdued aside from the commodity-related sectors.
Nikkei 225 slumped at the open after recent currency strength and the hawkish tone from BoJ Governor Ueda.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were underpinned after the Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI followed suit to yesterday’s official release with a surprise return to expansion territory, while the attention was also on recent earnings reports.
US equity futures found some respite from recent selling but with the recovery limited after tailwinds from Amazon’s strong results were countered by Apple’s disappointing China sales, while participants now look ahead to the NFP report.
European equity futures are indicative of a marginally positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed lower by 1.2% on Thursday.
FX
DXY traded little changed beneath the 104.00 level after giving up ground yesterday to a stronger yen and euro, while the latest US data releases were mixed and the attention now turns to the incoming key US jobs data.
EUR/USD took a breather and remained at the 1.0800 handle after recently strengthening for a fourth consecutive day.
GBP/USD languished around the 1.2900 level after slipping from resistance at 1.3000 in the fallout from the UK Budget.
USD/JPY found support at 152.00 after suffering in the aftermath of the BoJ policy decision and Governor Ueda’s press conference where he downplayed concerns over financial stability risks acting as an impediment to further policy tightening.
Antipodeans lacked conviction amid the mixed risk tone and with no tier-1 data from either side of the Tasman.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1135 vs exp. 7.1122 (prev. 7.1250).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures traded sideways after yesterday’s choppy mood and as markets braced for the looming US jobs data.
Bund futures were uneventful with price action contained beneath the 132.00 level following the recent sell-off.
10yr JGB futures remained lacklustre following yesterday’s BoJ meeting and Ueda’s hawkish tone at the press conference.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures remained underpinned with WTI above USD 70/bbl owing to the geopolitical risk premium following reports that Iran is preparing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days.
Spot gold regained some composure after it recently pulled back from its all-time highs.
Copper futures were lifted amid the surprise expansion in Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI data.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin was subdued and retreated back beneath the USD 70,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China National People’s Congress Standing Committee proposed a law amendment for further refining government debt supervision, while it added the provision state council and above county-level governments should report on debt management progress.
IMF expects Asia’s economy to expand by 4.6% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025 but noted risks to Asia’s economic outlook are tilted to the downside and that an acute risk for Asia is an escalation in tit-for-tat retaliatory tariffs between major trading partners. Furthermore, it stated that persistent downward price pressures from China can hurt countries with similar export structures and provoke trade tensions, as well as noted that China’s property sector problems have not been addressed comprehensively, leading to plummeting consumer confidence.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 50.3 vs. Exp. 49.7 (Prev. 49.3)
Australian PPI QQ (Q3) 0.9% (Prev. 1.0%)
Australian PPI YY (Q3) 3.9% (Prev. 4.8%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Iran is reportedly preparing a major retaliatory strike from Iraq within days, according to Axios. In relevant news, Al Arabiya noted the IRGC chief said the response to Israel will be unexpected, while Al Jazeera reported there are no indications that Iran is preparing to attack Israel.
Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei instructed the Supreme National Security Council on Monday to prepare for attacking Israel, according to NYT citing three Iranian officials familiar with the war planning. Khamenei was said to have made the decision after he reviewed a detailed report from senior military commanders on the extent of damage to Iran’s missile production capabilities and air defence systems around Tehran, critical energy infrastructure and a main port in the south.
Israel conducted strikes on Beirut suburbs for the first time in days, while a Lebanese news agency reported that dozens of buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut were flattened by Israeli raids, according to Sky News Arabia.
Islamic Resistance in Iraq said it attacked with marches a vital target in the south of the occupied territories several times since dawn today, according to Al Jazeera.
US Secretary of State Blinken said there is ‘good progress’ towards a ceasefire in Lebanon.
US Defence Secretary Austin spoke to Israeli Defence Minister Gallant and reaffirmed the US remains fully prepared to defend US personnel and partners across the region against threats from Iran, according to the Pentagon.
US State Department issued a response to Israel’s cabinet decision on extending indemnification for correspondent banking between Israel and West Bank in which it stated the short-term extension creates another looming crisis by November 30th and called for Israel to swiftly extend indemnification for essential banking relationships for at least a year.
Egypt denied what was reported by media outlets about Alexandria port receiving the MV Kathrin vessel carrying military supplies for Israel, according to Al Qahera News TV citing a high-level source.
OTHER
US Secretary of State Blinken condemned North Korea’s ballistic missile launch in the strongest terms and said as many as 8k North Korean troops are deployed in the Kursk region.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
SOUTH KOREA/
this gives us a good snapshot of global economic output!
(zerohedge)
South Korea’s Chip Output Drops For First Time In 14 Months Amid Slowdown At Samsung
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024 – 10:40 PM
Concerns over the stability of the artificial intelligence bubble intensified this week.
Advanced Micro Devices released a disappointing earnings report on Tuesday, revealing slower-than-expected growth in AI sales. Adding to the uncertainty, Samsung Electronics, the world’s largest smartphone manufacturer, reported overnight about uninspiring demand for advanced chips in mobile devices and PCs.
The largest takeaway from Samsung’s third-quarter earnings report was an underwhelming performance in the company’s chip division, posting a surprise drop from the previous quarter. At the same time, overall profit was marginally higher than Wall Street estimates. Also, it saw smartphone sales slowing by the end of the year and only increasing by about 1% in 2025, despite the hype surrounding AI-enabled smartphones and other handheld devices.
In addition to company-level developments, new data from South Korea’s chip manufacturing base shows that production fell in September for the first time in 14 months—yet more troubling signs showing the AI boom cools.
Nationwide semiconductor production slid 3% in September, a sharp reversal after they gained 11% a month earlier, according to data released Thursday by the government statistical office. The growth in shipments also slowed to 0.7% from 17% in August.
Still, inventory levels showed stockpiles continue to be worked through at a rapid clip, as they declined 41.5% from a year earlier in September. The numbers paint a picture of an industry that may be cooling gradually as demand for memory chips peaks out.
South Korea’s chip production is viewed as a proxy for global chip demand because these components are used in a wide range of electronics, from smartphones to servers to automobiles. Given the hype around AI adoption from phones to computers, this week’s news from AMD, Samsung, and now South Korea’s chip base could be symptoms of a cooling bubble. Certainly not the headlines chip bulls want to see.
END
3C JAPAN
3D. CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
UK
end
EU/CHINA
GERMANY/
EU
END
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
Hamas rejects any hostage deal that doesn’t end war, despite mediators’ efforts
As Qatari interlocutors reportedly try to coax terror group back to negotiating table with various short-term ceasefire offers, senior official says demands haven’t changed
Protesters call for a hostage deal to secure the release of abductees held in Gaza by the Hamas terror group in Gaza, outside the Defense Ministry Headquarters in Tel Aviv, October 26, 2024. (Jack Guez/AFP)
Hamas on Thursday rejected any proposal for a temporary halt to more than a year of fighting in Gaza and reiterated its insistence on a lasting ceasefire, as American, Egyptian, and Qatari mediators tried to coax the Palestinian terror group back to the negotiating table.
“The idea of a temporary pause in the war, only to resume aggression later, is something we have already expressed our position on. Hamas supports a permanent end to the war, not a temporary one,” senior Hamas official Taher al-Nunu told AFP.
Mediators seeking to broker a Gaza ceasefire were expected to present Hamas with a proposal for a truce of less than a month, a source with knowledge of the talks told AFP on Wednesday.
The proposal was discussed during meetings in Doha between Mossad head David Barnea, CIA Director Bill Burns, and Qatar’s prime minister, which concluded on Monday, the source said on condition of anonymity because of the talks’ sensitivity.
The source echoed reports in Hebrew media that the latest proposal involves exchanging several hostages kidnapped during Hamas’s brutal October 7, 2023, massacre for Palestinian security prisoners and increasing aid to Gaza.
According to the reports in Hebrew media, the Mossad chief presented Qatari interlocutors with a proposal for the release of 11-14 hostages from Gaza in exchange for around 100 Palestinian security prisoners from Israel, along with a monthlong pause in fighting in the Strip.
Mossad chief David Barnea attends a state ceremony marking the anniversary of the Hamas October 7 attack, at Mount Herzl in Jerusalem on October 27, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg FLASH90)
All of the remaining women and children held by the terror group would reportedly be among the hostages that would be released in the deal.
“US officials believe that if a short-term deal can be reached, it could lead to a more permanent agreement,” the source said.
Nunu said Hamas had not received any proposal so far, adding that if the terror group were to receive such a plan, it would respond.
However, he reiterated the demands the group has been insisting on for months — “a permanent ceasefire, withdrawal [of Israeli forces] from Gaza, the return of displaced people, sufficient humanitarian aid to Gaza and a serious prisoner exchange deal.”
According to the earlier reports, the proposal does not demand a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip nor a complete end to the fighting — both of which have been sticking points in previous rounds of failed negotiations, as Hamas has insisted it will agree to nothing less.
Qatar was also reportedly set to present Hamas with two other short-term truce proposals — an offer put forward by Egyptian mediators for a two-day ceasefire to exchange four Israeli hostages for some Palestinian prisoners, and another drawn up by Moscow for the release of two hostages with Russian citizenship.
An International Red Cross vehicle carrying Israeli Russian hostage Ron Krivoy released by Hamas drives towards the Rafah border point with Egypt ahead of a transfer to Israel on November 26, 2023. (Mohammed Abed/AFP)
The Hamas official’s comments come as Qatari mediators were reportedly meeting with Hamas leaders in Doha to discuss whether or not the terror group is willing to return to the negotiating table.
It is believed that 97 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.
Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 37 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the Israeli military as they tried to escape their captors.
Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/UNRWA
UNRWA chief says Israeli forces damaged agency’s West Bank office; Israel disputes claim
“Terrorists planted explosives in the proximity of the UNRWA offices that were then detonated in an attempt to harm IDF soldiers,” the IDF reported.
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 1, 2024 01:06
UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini attends a briefing on the humanitarian situation in the Palestinian Territory at the United Nations in Geneva, Switzerland, June 25, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/DENIS BALIBOUSE)
Israeli bulldozers damaged the office of UN aid agency UNRWA in the West Bank’s Nur Shams camp on Thursday, the agency’s chief said, with Israel disputing his account in the latest exchange between both sides.
Philippe Lazzarini, who heads the UNRWA, said on social media platform X that the office was severely damaged and was no longer usable. The Israeli military, however, issued a statement denying responsibility for any damage to the building.
IDF explanation for damage
“The claim that the UNRWA offices in Nur Shams were destroyed by IDF soldiers is false,” the statement read, in reference to Israel Defence Forces.
“Terrorists planted explosives in the proximity of the UNRWA offices that were then detonated in an attempt to harm IDF soldiers. The explosives likely caused damage to the structure,” the IDF statement said.
UNRWA COMMISSIONER-GENERAL Philippe Lazzarini arrives to meet with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Beirut, last Saturday. (credit: Amr Abdallah Dalsh/Reuters)
On Monday, Israel passed a law banning UNRWA from operating in the country, legislation that could impact its work in war-torn Gaza.
The lawmakers who drafted the law cited what they described as the involvement of some UNRWA staffers in the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel and staffers having membership in Hamas and other armed groups.
Lazzarini called the vote a “dangerous precedent” that opposes the UN charter and violates Israel’s obligation under international law. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said UNRWA workers “involved in terrorist activities” must be held accountable.
The IDF vows to respond to Hezbollah’s deadly rocket attacks on northern Israel today.
“Hezbollah rockets killed 7 innocent civilians inside Israel today. We will not let Hezbollah’s deadly attacks go unanswered,” the IDF says in an unusual English-language post on X.
Earlier, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, Col. Avichay Adraee, called on civilians near buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh, to evacuate immediately ahead of airstrikes.
Some 90 rockets were launched by Hezbollah from Lebanon at northern Israel today, according to an IDF tally.
Five men were killed in a rocket impact in a field near Metula, and a mother and son were killed in another strike in a grove near Haifa.
END
ISRAEL//HEZBOLLAH
ZEROHEDGE
Hezbollah is war weary and wants a settlement as quickly as possible
Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire Possible Within ‘Days’: Lebanese PM
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024 – 08:10 PM
Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati has issued a surprisingly optimistic assessment of the possibility of peace in Lebanon. On Wednesday he said that a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah might be achieved in the coming days.
He cited a ‘hopeful’ conversation with US special envoy Amos Hochstein, related to a new Washington-backed ceasefire proposal. “We are doing our best… to have a ceasefire within the coming hours or days,” PM Mikati told Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed. He said he remains “cautiously optimistic.”
Mikati explained he has reason to believe that a full ceasefire is possible and even realistic prior to the US election on November 5. On the other side, an Israeli official has told ABC News of “significant progress” toward a ceasefire in Lebanon.
Two senior White House advisers have meanwhile arrived in Israel Thursday as part of an effort to finalize and close the deal. Amos Hochstein and Brett McGurk are said to be going into it with the belief that Hezbollah has so many blows, especially the death of its longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, that it is looking to disassociate itself from Hamas and the Gaza war.
According to Axios: “A deal that would end the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah could be achieved within a few weeks, Israeli and U.S. officials said.” The same report has listed out the following simultaneous diplomatic engagements of the US in the region:
Israeli officials said Biden adviser Amos Hochstein was waiting for Israeli leaders to decide about whether to move forward with the deal before he traveled to Israel.
The fact that he and Biden adviser Brett McGurk are coming suggest Netanyahu is in favor of pursuing the deal, they said.
CIA director Bill Burns will be in Cairo on Thursday “to engage with Egyptian counterparts on bilateral matters as well as the process to secure the release of hostages,” the official said.
“CENTCOM Commander Gen. Erik Kurilla is traveling to the region to discuss regional defense and will visit Israel to engage with counterparts and U.S. personnel.”
Israeli media has said that contents of the US-proposed deal have leaked online, citing Kan public broadcaster.
“The ceasefire proposal begins with a 60-day implementation period, during which time the Lebanese army will deploy along the border and confiscate Hezbollah arms in southern Lebanon,” Times of Israelsays of the documents.
“The IDF will be required to pull all troops from Lebanon within seven days of the end of hostilities, and will be replaced by the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF),” it adds. UN peacekeeping troops will reportedly facilitate the transition, and some 10,000 Lebanese national army troops. According to more:
At the end of the 60-day implementation period, Israel and Lebanon will hold indirect negotiations via the US on fully implementing Resolution 1701 and resolving border disputes.
A new International Monitoring and Enforcement Mechanism (IMEM) will be created, with the US serving as chair and with the participation of Italy, France, Germany, Spain, the United Kingdom, UNIFIL and regional countries.
But in the meantime Israel’s airstrikes on positions in the south, Beirut, and even in the northeast have continued. They’ve even expanded, with the Bekaa Valley getting pounded, and Tyre getting hit again on Thursday.
But the same day Israeli is reporting that at least six civilians have been killed by Hezbollah rocket attacks on the north, including some foreign workers in the city of Metula. An Israeli woman has also been killed in Haifa Bay.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
IAF conducts over 200 airstrikes amid Gaza, Lebanon operations
Over the past 24 hours, IDF forces have carried out several localized operations in southern Lebanon, dismantling Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure, seizing weapons, and eliminating terrorists.
The IDF struck a launch site and the suspected terrorist responsible for projectile fire from Lebanon near the HaMifratz area in northern Israel on Thursday.
Projectiles were launched from Lebanon toward HaMifratz, prompting the Israel Air Force (IAF) to strike back, targeting the launch point and neutralizing the assailant.
Over the past 24 hours, IDF forces have carried out several localized operations in southern Lebanon, dismantling Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure, seizing weapons, and eliminating terrorists.
IDF soldiers operate in the Gaza Strip, November 1, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
In parallel, IDF troops continue intensified operations in the Gaza Strip. In Jabaliya, air and ground forces conducted targeted raids on military installations, killing dozens of Hamas terrorists. In central Gaza, IDF forces neutralized several armed operatives, while in Rafah, troops identified and struck a military site with an underground tunnel used for hostile activities.
Throughout Thursday, the IAF targeted more than 200 sites tied to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, focusing on command centers, missile launch sites, and other critical infrastructure used by the terror groups.
Earlier on Friday, approximately ten projectiles were identified crossing from Lebanon into Israeli territory. Some of the projectiles were intercepted, and fallen projectiles were identified in an open area.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/BEIRUT
Strikes reported in Beirut following IDF evacuation warning
Israel carried out air strikes early on Friday on Beirut’s southern suburbs, Reuters witnesses said.
Marking the first strikes there in nearly a week, the report came shortly after IDF Arabic spokesperson Col. Avichay Adraee issued an evacuation warning on X/Twitter.
#عاجل إلى جميع السكان المتواجدين في منطقة الضاحية الجنوبية وتحديدًا في المباني المحددة في الخرائط المرفقة والمباني المجاورة لها في المناطق التالية: 🔸الغبيري 🔸حارة حريك
⭕️أنتم تتواجدون بالقرب من منشآت ومصالح تابعة لحزب الله حيث سيعمل ضدها جيش الدفاع على المدى الزمني القريب… pic.twitter.com/TuWhPQFw4b
Iran Readies Major Retaliatory Strike From Iraq ‘In Coming Days’: Israeli Officials
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024 – 05:45 PM
Axios is reporting Thursday that Iran is still preparing a major retaliation in response to the Israeli aerial attack of the overnight and early morning hours of last Saturday. Israel’s strikes on missile and military facilities was itself a much anticipated response to the Oct.1st ballistic missile attack.
While most regional observers believe the tit-for-tat has cooled down, reflected in declining oil prices this week, the Axios report cites a pair of Israeli officials to say “Israeli intelligence suggests Iran is preparing to attack Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, possibly before the US presidential election.”
This would involve large numbers of drones and ballistic missiles, they say. Throughout the Gaza war, there have been sporadic drones launched by Iran-backed paramilitary units in Iraq, but nothing on a major scale.
Israeli sources on Thursday have suggested Iran is actually moving ballistic missiles to prepare for such an attack.
Also,Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Hossein Salami has been cited as saying that Iran’s response will be “different from any scenario” Israel might expect.
CNN too has been reporting the fresh threats, on Wednesday writing the following based on Iranian military sources:
Israel’s recent attacks on Iran will be met with a “definitive and painful” response that will likely come before the US presidential vote, a high-ranking source told CNN on Wednesday.
The remarks signal a departure from Iran’s initial attempts to downplay the severity of the strikes carried out by Israel on October 25, which marked the first time Israel has openly acknowledged striking Iranian targets.
“The response of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the aggression of the Zionist regime will be definitive and painful,” the source, who is familiar with Iran’s deliberations, said.
Although the source did not provide an exact date for the attack, they said it “will probably take place before the day of the US presidential election.”
Meanwhile, the Iraqi government is seething over Israeli warplanes violating its airspace during last weekend’s attack. It has lodged an official protest note with the United Nations about the illegal breach.
It appears the some one hundred Israeli jets reportedly used in the attack fired on Iran from over neighboring Iraqi airspace. Such a tactic has long been utilized by the Israeli Air Force in attacking Syria, as it typically fires from over undefended Lebanese airspace.
Currently US and Israeli negotiators say they are getting close to achieving a ceasefire with Hezbollah, but any new large-scale attack from the ‘Iranian axis’ would surely jeopardize such a potential deal.
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRICS MEETING
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0864 DOWN 0.0020
USA/ YEN 152.64 UP 0.662 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2910 UP 0.0014
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3929 DOWN 0.0005 (CDN DOLLAR UP 5 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 7.81 PTS OR 0.24%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 189.10 PTS OR 0.93%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.50%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 189.10 PTS OR 0.99%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 7.81 PTS OR 0.24%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .50%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 1,027.51 POINTS OR 2.63%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2751.50
silver:$32.82
USA dollar index early FRIDAY morning: 103.99 UP 12 BASIS POINTS FROM THURSDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.1224 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1370)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.34 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.924
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 7 in basis points from THURSDAY at 4.361% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.553 UP 8 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.193 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2737.70
SILVER AT 11;00: 32.46
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 67.05 PTS OR 0.83%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 177.43 OR 0.93%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 58.74 PTS OR 0.80%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 170.04 OR 1.46%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 394.03 OR 1.15%
WTI Oil price 69.48 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 73.11 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 98.25 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 88/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.405 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.502 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.302 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.080 UP 1
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0836 DOWN 0.0048 OR 48 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2924 UP 0.0027 OR 27 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5020 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.926
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.95 UP 0.972 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3953 UP 0.0018 CDN dollar DOWN 18 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.45
Brent OIL: 73.10
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 8 BASIS pts to 4,308
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 9 BASIS PTS to 4.564%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 4 PTS AT 4.212
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.308 UP 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.092 UP 4 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 104.22 UP 34 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.35 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 98.25 DOWN 0 AND 88/100 roubles
GOLD 2,734.40 3:30 PM
SILVER: 32.38 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 288.34 PTS OR 0.69%
NASDAQ UP 142.73 PTS OR 0.72%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 22.04 DOWN 1.12 PTS OR 4.84%
GLD: $252.47 DOWN 1.04 OR 0.41%
SLV/ $29.54 DOWN 0.27 OR 0.91%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: DOWN 309.22 PTS OR 1.24%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Halloween Hangover: ‘Payrolls & PMI’ Puke Sparks Chaos Across Markets
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Hot on the heels of AMZN, AAPL, and INTC malarkey, this morning’s jobs data was shitshow… and the manufacturing PMIs just rubbed more salt in that wound.
Of course, it was all shrugged off as ‘hurricane and strike’-related because Bidenomics is freaking awesome, yo!
Source: Bloomberg
However, the machines and their human friends went to town on it, sparking utter chaos across all asset classes.
The initial reaction was a huge kneejerk lower in Treasury yields, the dollar, and VIX; and a spike higher in stocks, crypto, and gold as rate-cut expectations soared.
The odds of a 25bps cut next week spiked significantly…
Source: Bloomberg
But then, everything started to unwind as traders realized that the jobs number was not bad enough (net of hurricanes) to prompt a ‘growth scare’, but was bad enough to give Powell enough cover to cut rates next week and push inflation even higher.
First things first, expectations for rate-cuts in 2024, and even more so 2025, started to tumble – back to unchanged (108bps cuts expected to end 2025)…
Source: Bloomberg
Futures trod water overnight with the big tech earnings chopping them around but once the algos got a look at payrolls everything went vertical. However, as the day wore on and yields spiked, stocks saw derisking…
The surge in stocks today managed to get The Dow and Small Caps into the green for the week (but then the selling pressure hit). S&P and Nasdaq were the biggest losers on the week…
Under the hood in equity-land, INTC, AAPL, and AMZN were the big movers from earnings last night.
INTC is up bigly on modestly better guidance (despite admitting the AI project is failing on its goals)…
AMZN bounced back from weakness after earnings (AWS growth slowing) to put in a big day…
AAPL did not bounce back from its post-earnings plunge…
‘Most Shorted’ Stocks were instantly squeezed higher at the open, but spent the rest of the day giving it all back…
Source: Bloomberg
Some modest profit-taking in the ‘Trump Trade’ today…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX ended higher on the day and significantly higher on the week as the vol term structures gets jiggy around next week’s mega risk catalysts…
Source: Bloomberg
Stocks were not quite as whipsawed as bonds. the 2Y yield crashed 15bpas on the payrolls print… only to rip all back higher to close up 3bps on the day…
Source: Bloomberg
A chaotic week in bond-land for sure. By the end of the week, all yields were higher with the belly lagging and the long-end the least gly horse in the glue factory…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar puked lower on the ‘dovish’ bad data then spent the rest of the day ripping higher to end the week higher…
Source: Bloomberg
Gold’s price action this week was also wild – hitting a new record high before getting monkeyhammered yesterday and today to end the week red. That was gold’s worst week since June…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin followed a similar trajectory to gold this week – driving higher to new record highs before getting clubbed like a baby seal the last two days…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil ended the week lower despite recovering most of the Sunday night futures collapse (Israel-Iran optics)…
…and reverse repo usage is collapsing (liquidity needs?)
Source: Bloomberg
Is that why USA sovereign risk is blowing out?
Source: Bloomberg
On that cheery note, have a great weekend.
MORNING TRADING/JOBS REPORT/A BIG MISS
Jobs Shock: October Payrolls Huge Miss As Private Jobs Go Negative For First Time Since 2020
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 08:50 AM
In our nonfarm payrolls preview last night, we said that the October payrolls report may show the first negative print since 2020. Well, moments ago the BLS reported the highly anticipated number and… it was close: the monthly print was only 12K, a huge drop from the pre-revision 254K in October (revised naturally lower to 223K), and just 13K away from a negative print.
The print was so low it was only above the two lowest estimates (those of Bloomberg Econ for -10K and ABN Amr0 for a 0 print). That means it was a 3 sigma miss to estimates.
And of course, as has been the case for the entire Biden admin, previous months were revised sharply lower once again: August was revised down by 81,000, from +159,000 to +78,000, and September was revised down by 31,000, from +254,000 to +223,000. With these revisions, employment in August and September combined is 112,000 lower than previously reported. This means that even after the monster September revision when 818K jobs were removed, 7 of the past 9 months were again revised lower!
This means that once the November jobs are released, we can be virtually certain that October will be revised to negative.
But wait, there’s more because while the total payroll number was just barely positive, if one excludes the 40K government jobs, private payrolls was in fact negative to the tune of -28K, down from 223K pre-revision last month, and the first negative print since December 2020. In other words, we were right… when it comes to actual, non-parasite “government” jobs.
To be sure, as we noted yesterday, a big part of the drop was due to the one-time event discussed, including the Boeing strike and Hurricanes Helene and Milton. This is what the BLS said on the topic: “In October, the household survey was conducted largely according to standard procedures, and response rates were within normal ranges” however, “the initial establishment survey collection rate for October was well below average. However, collection rates were similar in storm-affected areas and unaffected areas. A larger influence on the October collection rate for establishment data was the timing and length of the collection period. This period, which can range from 10 to 16 days, lasted 10 days in October and was completed several days before the end of the month.”
More importantly, the BLS said that “it is likely that payroll employment estimates in some industries were affected by the hurricanes; however, it is not possible to quantify the net effect on the over-the-month change in national employment, hours, or earnings estimates because the establishment survey is not designed to isolate effects from extreme weather events. There was no discernible effect on the national unemployment rate from the household survey.”
Ironically, while the BLS was unable to “quantify the net effect” from the hurricanes, it was able to calculate that the number of people not at work due to weather surged to the third highest in recent history, up 512K!
In other words, the BLS now has an excuse to blame the plunge on, it just doesn’t know how to quantify it. Translation: if Trump is president next month, expect the downtrend to continue with little to no mention of hurricane as the BLS prepares to admit the true state of the labor market; if however Kamala wins, the November jobs will magically rebound (even as downward revisions accelerate) and all shall be back to fake normal.
Oh, and of course, today’s catastrophic jobs print gives the Fed a full carte blanche to again cut 25bps next week, even if the plunge was all hurricanes…
The rest of the jobs report was not that exciting: the unemployment rate printed at 4.1%, unchanged from last month and in line with expectations. The number of unemployed people was little changed at 7.0 million.
Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (3.9 percent), adult women (3.6 percent), teenagers (13.8 percent), Whites (3.8 percent), Blacks (5.7 percent), Asians (3.9 percent), and Hispanics (5.1 percent) showed little or no change over the month.
It’s worth noting that the unemployment rate actually rose almost 0.1% despite being reported as flat because in September it was 4.05% and in October it was 4.145%, and rose due to a surge in layoffs (+166K) as well as re-entrants (+108K). Additionally, as Southbay research notes, the average duration of unemployment rose from 22.6 weeks to 22.9 weeks
Wage growth came in slightly higher than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 0.4% in October, higher than the 0.3% expected, and up from the downward revised 0.3% in September (was 0.4%). On an annual basis, earnings rose 4.0%, in line with expectations, and above the downward revised 3.9% (was 4.0%).
Some more stats from the latest monthly report:
Among the unemployed, the number of permanent job losers edged up to 1.8 million in October. The number of people on temporary layoff changed little at 846,000.
The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was little changed at 1.6 million in October. This measure is up from 1.3 million a year earlier. In October, the long-term unemployed accounted for 22.9 percent of all unemployed people.
Both the labor force participation rate, at 62.6 percent, and the employment-population ratio, at 60.0 percent, changed little in October.
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was little changed at 4.6 million in October.
The number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job, at 5.7 million, was essentially unchanged in October. These individuals were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the 4 weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job.
Among those not in the labor force who wanted a job, the number of people marginally attached to the labor force, at 1.6 million, was little changed in October. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached who believed that no jobs were available for them, changed little at 379,000 in October.
Turning to the establishment survey, we find the following breakdown in jobs:
Health care added 52,000 jobs in October, in line with the average monthly gain of 58,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment rose in ambulatory health care services (+36,000) and nursing and residential care facilities (+9,000).
Employment in government continued its upward trend in October (+40,000), similar to the average monthly gain of 43,000 over the prior 12 months. Over the month, employment continued to trend up in state government (+18,000).
Within professional and business services, employment in temporary help services declined by 49,000 in October. Temporary help services employment has decreased by 577,000 since reaching a peak in March 2022.
Manufacturing employment decreased by 46,000 in October, reflecting a decline of 44,000 in transportation equipment manufacturing that was largely due to strike activity.
Employment in construction changed little in October (+8,000). The industry had added an average of 20,000 jobs per month over the prior 12 months. Over the month, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 14,000 jobs.
And visually:
Three things stick out here:
First, manufacturing is a disaster, with the US losing manufacturing jobs for 3 months in a row, and 4 of the last 5. Can’t blame that on hurricanes.
Second, the number of construction jobs is becoming absolutely ridiculous, especially when contrasted with the plunge in actual housing starts, completions and last but not least, actual job openings.
Finally, delta between government jobs and private jobs was a whopping 12K, the biggest since covid. This means that more government jobs were added in October than all private jobs lost in the month! Just in case you needed to know how the Biden admin avoided a negative total headline print.
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Nissan Cutting Production Of U.S. Models By 30%, Putting 2024 Global Sales Target At Risk
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 01:00 PM
In continuing signs that the U.S. consumer is tapped, Nissan is planning on cutting production of its main U.S. models by 30%, according to a new report from Nikkei, which says the cuts could jeopardize the automaker’s 2024 global sales targets.
Nissan forecasts a 99% drop in quarterly operating profit to 995 million yen ($6.52 million) and a 12% decline to 500 billion yen for the year, citing weakening U.S. market earnings, the report says.
The company’s target of 3.65 million vehicles sold for 2024 is now at risk, it says.
Nikkei reports that Since September, Nissan has gradually reduced production, notifying dealerships and suppliers. Its North American unit confirmed inventory adjustments for key models.
Production of the Rogue SUV, accounting for 30% of U.S. sales, and the Frontier pickup (10%) is being cut. The Rogue is manufactured in Smyrna, Tennessee, and the Frontier in Canton, Mississippi. Those two plants collectively reduced output by 40,000 vehicles in September and October. Initially planned through October, these cuts now extend to December.
In the July-September quarter, Nissan’s U.S. sales dipped 2%, with gasoline-only Rogue sales dropping 20%. September U.S. production fell 24% year-over-year, impacting Rogue units built both in the U.S. and Fukuoka, Japan.
With electric vehicle demand softening but hybrid interest rising, Nissan faces competitive pressure from Toyota and Honda, both of which offer hybrids in the U.S. Inventory days have ballooned to 100 days for Nissan, compared to Toyota’s 30 and Honda’s 50, prompting Nissan to increase sales incentives, adding 30% above industry averages.
Nissan aimed to stabilize inventories by September and cut costs with new models, yet sales for April-September fell 4% globally, totaling 1.59 million vehicles.
The ongoing U.S. market decline suggests Nissan may need to revise its full-year forecast again. North American struggles include slow EV rollout and stalled plans for new EV production at the Canton plant, which has been postponed indefinitely, the report concluded.
END
US Manufacturing Survey Hits 16-Month-Lows But Prices Paid Spiked In October
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 10:06 AM
Minutes after the BLS reported the biggest drop in manufacturing jobs since the COVID lockdowns, S&P Global reported its US Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.5 in October (still in contraction) from 47.3 in September (as ‘hard data’ has exploded higher this month. ISM’s Manufacturing PMI was worse than expected, dropping from 47.2 to 46.5 in October – the lowest since June 2023…
That is the fourth straight month of contraction (sub-50) for the Manufacturing PMI
Source: Bloomberg
The ISM Manufacturing Prices Index spiked back higher in October as both new orders and employment remain in contraction sub-50)…
Source: Bloomberg
Commodity prices are UP!
Stagflation, much?
The responses from ISM survey participants was a shitshow:
“Right-sizing continues. Contingency plans have been formulated to anticipate trade policies that will impose tariffs on key materials.” [Chemical Products]
“Market demand has significantly decreased in the second half of 2024 and is expected to be soft through the first quarter of 2025. Although inflation has stabilized and returned to historical levels, and interest rates are decreasing, there appears to be a general pessimism in the economy that is driving customers to be more restrictive in their capital expenditures, including investment in commercial vehicles. Uncertainty in the outcome of the upcoming election has resulted in several risk analysis studies to be prepared, particularly focused on the future of the electric vehicle (EV) migration and trade restrictions/penalties.” [Transportation Equipment]
“Sales have been very slow the past six months. Interestingly, though, inquiries are up more than 30 percent from a year ago. This indicates there is pent-up demand, but customers are skittish about national and global economic conditions. We are hearing directly from customers that they need to order equipment to satisfy their requirements but are going to keep projects as long as possible before pulling the trigger.” [Machinery]
“Business levels remain depressed. It feels like a ‘wait and see’ environment regarding where the economy is heading; customers don’t want to commit to inventory, which is resulting in lower order levels.” [Fabricated Metal Products]
“This has been an interesting fourth quarter already. The port strikes, hurricanes and election will all affect us in some way. Our industry is energy intensive, so our largest concern is the national and state mandates toward electrification. Electrical components were already in short supply, and with the substation and power line damages, we expect the electrical supply chain will be even worse.” [Paper Products]
“The US manufacturing downturn extended into its fourth successive month in October, marking a disappointing start to the fourth quarter for the goods-producing sector. Although the rate of decline moderated, order books continued to deteriorate at a worryingly steep pace, and a further build-up of unsold stock hints at further production cuts at factories in the coming months unless demand revives.
“The survey does, however, provide some encouragement that the current soft patch could prove short-lived. Hurricanes have been blamed for supply disruptions, which should therefore ease in November, and manufacturers are feeling more positive about the outlook than at any time since May, hoping that demand will pick up once the uncertainty generated by the Presidential Election clears.
“It’s notable that orders for investment goods such as plant and machinery have fallen especially sharply in recent months. Headcounts have also been cut for a third straight month, underscoring the reluctance among firms to expand in the face of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, with firms citing tensions around the US election as well as intensifying international conflicts. There is therefore some potential upside to the manufacturing sector if the political environment becomes more conducive to spending and investment after the election.”
Hope springs eternal!! But The fed will cut 25bps next week because jobs/ISM and ignore the surge in Prices Paid and Core PCE?
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
In the last two weeks, Kamala Harris has been trying to revive her stagnant campaign by smearing Trump as being Hitlerian and a fascist. She claims Trump is planning to put his enemies in encampments.
Yet in the modern era, it was not Trump who put large numbers of U.S. residents and citizens into “relocation camps,” but liberal Democrat President Franklin D. Roosevelt who sent Japanese-American citizens and residents into them.
If Harris refers to Trump’s supposed fascist policies during his prior four-year tenure, there is no such evidence.
Nonetheless, the once “joyful” Harris is ending her campaign by trafficking in lies and smears reminiscent of the Joe McCarthy era.
Recall that fascists hijack law enforcement and the military to suspend constitutional rights and punish enemies. But Trump did neither.
Instead, in 2016, a corrupt FBI went after Trump himself during the Obama administration with the bogus Steele dossier.
The FBI, which in 2016 had hired the faker Steele, in 2020, fused with social media to suppress accurate news reporting of the embarrassing Hunter Biden laptop scandal.
A number of FBI directors and intelligence officials—John Brennan, James Clapper, James Comey, Andrew McCabe—who openly sought to destroy Trump had a long history of either lying or feigning amnesia under oath.
Fascists try to warp the legal system. But Trump’s own Justice Department selected an independent special counsel to investigate the invented Russian collusion accusations against him.
In vast contrast, the Biden Justice Department coordinated with Georgia prosecutors Fani Willis and Nathan Wade, special counsel Jack Smith, Manhattan prosecutor Alvin Bragg, and New York Attorney General Letitia James to prosecute Trump, bankrupt him, and keep off the campaign trail.
Fascists use their governments to destroy their enemies.
During Trump’s term, for the first time in history, the House of Representatives impeached a first-term president twice. And in another first, the Senate tried Trump as a private citizen.
A self-styled “anonymous” federal official bragged openly of deliberately, and likely unlawfully, leading a bureaucratic cabal to sabotage Trump’s lawful executive orders.
Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman, in collusion with other bureaucrats, deliberately leaked a classified presidential phone call in an effort to ensure that Trump was impeached.
Fascists seek to change existing laws to destroy opponents and illegally consolidate power.
Currently, it is only the Democrats who seek to pack the court, destroy the Electoral College, end the Senate filibuster, and create two new states and thus gain four left-wing senators.
In key states, they radically changed voting laws.
As a result, roughly 70 percent of voters in 2020 did not cast their ballots in person on Election Day—even as the traditional rejection rates for fraudulent ballots mysteriously dived amid the influx.
Fascists arbitrarily nullify any laws they feel do not aid their agendas. Biden-Harris destroyed immigration law in order to bring in more than 12 million illegal aliens and gain new constituencies.
They also protected sanctuary cities, as some 600 such jurisdictions illegally and with impunity nullified federal immigration laws in neo-Confederate fashion.
Fascists seek to politicize the military.
But in Trump’s case, his former chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Mark Milley, brazenly violated the Uniform Code of Military Justice by libeling Trump as a fascist.
Worse still, Milley sabotaged the chain of command by ordering theater commanders to report directly to him in times of serious crises.
And in near-treasonous fashion, Milley contacted his Chinese communist counterpart in the People’s Liberation Army to assure him that he would warn the Chinese military before carrying out any Trump order he felt existentially dangerous.
Some of the most prominent retired four-star military officers—again in violation of the Uniform Code of Military Justice—publicly smeared Trump as a coward, liar, fascist, Hitler-like, a Mussolini, a creator of Auschwitz-like death camps, and worthy of being removed “the sooner the better.”
Fascists seek to control and weaponize the media. So, Facebook and Twitter both conspired with the FBI to censure news accounts favorable to Trump. The major newspapers, social media corporations, television networks, and public broadcasting systematically and continually attacked Trump, censured his supporters, and fused with his opponents.
Why then the charges of Trump the fascist and Hitler reincarnation?
Simple. Harris’s personal negatives are rising, her polls inert.
She has abandoned her prior run-out-the-clock avoidance of the media, her smiley “joy” campaign, and instead now embraces the big lie, while Joe Biden writes off Trump supporters as “garbage”.
Harris is now confirming to voters that she really can neither think nor speak well and has no consistent agenda that appeals to the middle class.
So, in final desperation, Harris is smearing Trump as a fascist, even though ironically, he has been the target of fascist machinations from her own party and supporters for nearly a decade.
KING REPORT
The King Report November 1, 2024 Issue 7361
Independent View of the News
BOJ signals more rate hikes as it sees receded overseas risks The BOJ kept its policy rate unchanged at around 0.25 percent, as widely expected at the end of a two-day meeting earlier in the day, amid political uncertainty following the loss by the Japanese ruling parties of their majority in the recent general election and ahead of the U.S. presidential election next week. However, Ueda suggested at a post-meeting press conference that the BOJ is gradually getting ready for further rate hikes, saying he is less concerned about the U.S. economy, citing its robust employment and other economic indicators… https://english.kyodonews.net/news/2024/10/f8700566d460-urgent-bank-of-japan-keeps-policy-interest-rate-on-hold-at-around-025.html?phrase=IOC&words=
@ReutersBiz: British finance minister Rachel Reeves said she would raise taxes by $52 billion a year, or 40 billion pounds, in her first budget, as she accused the previously ruling Conservative Party of leaving public services broken after its 14 years in power.https://t.co/bBnsm0gDDU
Sept PCE is the expected 0.2% m/m & 2.1% y/y. But Core PCE y/y is 2.7% y/y; 2.6% was consensus. Core PCE m/m is the expected 0.3%.
Bonds sank early yesterday. The US 10-year hit 4.324% near 10:02 ET; USZs were -28/32 at the time.
Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 got crushed due to negative reactions to Microsoft and Meta’s ostensibly great results. Traders have been over-the-moon bullish, and they got too long.
Nasdaq hit -2.4% at 10:50 ET; the Naz 100 was -2.3%; MSFT was -6.05%. Meta hit -4.2% at 11:48 ET.
ESZs traded sharply lower after the Nikkei opening on Microsoft and Meta’s after-hour tumbles on Wednesday. The decline slowly got progressively worse until ESZs broke lower at 2:38 ET. After hitting a low of 5801.00 at 4:30 ET, ESZs went inert until a rally commenced near the 7 ET US repo market opening. ESZs hit a peak of 5819.25 at 8:31 ET. ESZs then sank and hit a low of 5752.75 at 11:10 ET.
The manipulation, especially on the last day of October, for the European close took ESZs to 5767.25 at 11:23 ET. Alas, ESZs slid into the 11:30 ET European close and hit a new daily of 5750.50 at 11:52 ET. After a plodding rally to 5769.75 at 13:10 ET, ESZs commenced a plodding decline to 5748.75 at 14:33.
The manipulation to game October performance then appeared. A moderate A-B-C rally took ESZs to 5770.00 at 15:49 ET. But like other sessions this week, too many traders and wise guys are long. So, ESZs sank to a new daily low of 5734.50 at 15:59 ET.
AXIOS: Israeli intelligence indicates that Iran may be planning an attack on Israel from Iraqi territory in the coming days, potentially ahead of the U.S. presidential election… drones as well as ballistic missiles… https://www.axios.com/2024/10/31/israel-iran-planning-attack-iraq
Positive aspects of previous session The DJTA rallied modestly in the morning. USZs rebounded from a low of -28/32 to a high of +5/32 at 15:28 ET; they closed -3/32
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined sharply during early US trading Nasdaq, the Nasdaq 100, DJIA, and the NY Fang+ Index sank. MSFT closed -6.03%; Meta -4.09%
Ambiguous aspects of previous session How far will the Fang decline go?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5727.88 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5775.34; 5702.86
@Holden_Culotta: JD Vance: “I’ve kind of come around to the Ron Paul argument” on the Federal Reserve. “It gives massive corporations a lower cost of money than the average American … Part of the reason BlackRock is able to buy all these homes is you ask: What is BlackRock borrowing at? Because the average American right now, I think the average mortgage interest rate is somewhere around 7% right now. BlackRock’s borrowing at like 1.5%, 2.5% … They have a huge advantage. Going back to the Jeffersonian idea of Americans as owners and citizens in their own country, well what happens when BlackRock owns your home and they say: ‘You’re not allowed to own a firearm, because we own this home, you don’t own this home.’ There goes the Second Amendment. What if they say: ‘For all residents in our places, we don’t want you to put up yard signs for certain political candidates.’ There goes the First Amendment.”… https://x.com/Holden_Culotta/status/1850319078663111085
Trump told Netanyahu he wants Gaza war over by time he enters office – Times of Israel The former US official stressed that Trump wasn’t specific in his appeal to Netanyahu and could well back “residual” IDF activity in Gaza, so long as Jerusalem has officially ended the war… Trump in recent weeks has indicated that he’d give Israel freer reign to make decisions, slamming US President Joe Biden for trying to restrict the potential targets of Jerusalem’s retaliation to Iran’s October 1 ballistic missile attack… https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-netanyahu-he-wants-gaza-war-over-by-time-he-enters-office-sources/
Fed Balance Sheet: -$15.918 B on -$12.653B MBS; Reserves at Fed: +$6.813B
Amazon Q3 EPS 1.43, 1.16 exp; Net Sales $158.9B, $157.29B exp. AMZN jumped 7%; but it rescinded much of the rally when it forecasted Q4 Net Sales of $181.5B to $188.5B; $186.36B was consensus.
Apple Q4 Adj. EPS 1.64, 1.60 exp; Rev $94.93B, $94.36B exp; iPhone Rev $46.22b, $45.04B exp; Greater China Rev $15.03B, $15.8b exp. Apple sank as much as 4.1% in after-hour trading.
Today – Yesterday’s missive: It is clear stocks are tired.Traders will play for a rebound, the Friday Rally, and start-of-November buying. Stocks are due for a trading bounce; but it might only be an intraday event. With the Mag 7 breaking down severely, the momentum is on the downside despite the arrival of the Grand Intermediate-term Bullish Season. This is the propensity for stocks to rally from November 1 to April 30. Bloomberg’s Trender (trend indicator) is on a daily sell signal for the first time since early September.
ESZs +3.25; NQZs are +49.50; and USZs are +1/32 at 20:23 ET.
Expected econ data: Oct NFP 101k, Mfg. -30k, Rate 4.1%, Wages 0.3% m/m & 4% y/y; Workweek 34.2; Labor Force Participation Rate 62.7%; Oct S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 47.8; Oct ISM Mfg. 47.6, Prices Paid 49.3; Oct Wards Total Vehicles 15.8m
Expected impact earnings: XOM 1.87, CVX 2.41, CAH 1.62
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5699; 100-day MA: 5589; 150-day MA: 5457; 200-day MA: 5354 DJIA 50-day MA: 41,911; 100-day MA: 40,824; 150-day MA: 40,138; 200-day MA: 39,787 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5813.72 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5033.40 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5509.91 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5885.28 triggers a buy signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative– a close above 5788.95 triggers a buy signal
As the furor and attention over Biden’s garbage remark began to wane, the puerile Mark Cuban gives Team Trump another offensive remark to hype, meme, and exploit! Cuban insulted GOP women! @TrumpWarRoom Top Kamala surrogate Mark Cuban says no “strong, intelligent women” support President Trump. They’re now openly attacking the millions of strong, intelligent women fighting alongside President Trump every day to Make America Great Again. Will @KamalaHQ disavow? “Donald Trump, you never see him around strong intelligent women, ever, it’s just that simple.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1852016972797456882
After Biden calls Trump voters ‘garbage,’ top Harris surrogate says women around Trump are weak, dumbhttps://t.co/UAWoLre6bx
Women unloaded mercilessly on Cuban. Here are a few examples:
@BridgetPhetasy: One of the things that I find repulsive about certain men on the left is the casual misogyny they ooze when women don’t do what they want.
@NMalliotakis: Strong, intelligent & independent women don’t need Mark Cuban or anyone else in Kamala’s Camp to tell them how to think. Once again, the left insults anyone who disagrees with them because they are so “inclusive.”
@LaraLeaTrump: Just when you think the Kamala camp can’t possibly alienate and divide people any more than they already have…now they attack women who support Trump. Nice job, Mark.
GOP House #3 @EliseStefanik: You’re a sexist disgrace @mcuban smearing tens of millions of strong, intelligent women across America. And @KamalaHarris stays SILENT. Here is my message to you as the highest-ranking woman in Congress… https://t.co/m9lew9icAr
@KayleeDMcGhee on Fox: “I’m starting to pick up on a pattern here — that when they’re backed into a corner. They lash out, and the first thing that comes out of their lips is an insult to the people who they think they can’t control. As a young woman, this was extremely offensive.” https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1852034452060303870
Trump campaign blasts top Harris surrogate Mark Cuban for ‘insulting’ pro-Trump women “Joe Biden called Trump supporters ‘garbage,’ and now Kamala’s top surrogate Mark Cuban insinuated female Trump supporters are ‘weak and dumb,’” Leavitt told Fox News Digital. “This is extremely insulting to the thousands of women who work for President Trump, and the tens of millions of women who are voting for him,” Leavitt said. “These women are mothers, entrepreneurs, and industry leaders, and they are, indeed, strong and intelligent, despite what Mark Cuban and Kamala Harris say.”… https://t.co/XOwDEVIVnb
@seanmdav: …Cuban is jealous of Trump and Elon. He hates how much attention they get and how much wealthier and more successful they are… Mark Cuban sold a company to Yahoo at the height of the dot com bubble in a transaction that is widely derided as one of the worst Internet investments in history. And Cuban especially hates that neither Musk nor Trump wants anything to do with him. He’s desperately insecure, and he hates them for it… https://x.com/seanmdav/status/1852041538982830146
Trump’s statement on Cuban: “…he’s a very insecure guy, and a MAJOR LOSER, always has been and always will be! Nobody likes him, nobody respects him, and he’s unattractive both inside and out!…” https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1852119259729822180
@WhitlockJason: What you don’t see around Trump is men pretending to be women. Mark Cuban misspoke.
Mark Cuban tries to ‘clarify’ after comment on ‘The View’ widely seen as insult toward pro-Trump women – Cuban said he was not saying female voters are not smart, strong and intelligent “I know he has worked with strong, intelligent women, like Elaine Chao, Kelly Anne, Ivanka and many others,” Cuban added. “I stand by my opinion that he does not like being challenged publicly.” Jimmy Failla commented on Cuban’s post, saying, “Shoulda just told us there was an apostrophe in your statement. This is junk, babe.”… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mark-cuban-tries-clarify-comment-view-widely-seen-insult-toward-pro-trump-women
Trump’s lead over Harris in betting markets declined about 6 to 8 percentage points on reports that women have been 54% to 56% of early voting. This is a few percentage points higher than overall votes from women. Pundits warned that if men don’t come out on voting day, Trump could be in trouble.
Trump’s overall lead rebounded yesterday afternoon when a few data geeks noted that the lower early vote totals for men were largely in big (blue) cities. This implies minority men are staying home.
@Peoples_Pundit: I’m not saying it’s unwise for Republicans not to focus on turning out more men. Duh. But these takes are oversimplifications and it’s not speculation. DEM men, particularly non-white DEM men, are falling off at the same time REP women turned out early at higher rates.
Biden bites babies visiting for White House Halloween trick-or-treat celebrationhttps://t.co/WpRSY0u5vX
@ggreenwald: The way the media immediately invented an apostrophe to radically alter what Biden said is the funniest thing they’ve done since that time when — 20 minutes into the Trump/Biden debate — they all ran to Twitter and wrote: “BREAKING: Biden has been suffering from a cold.”
@realDonaldTrump: We caught them CHEATING BIG in Pennsylvania. Must announce and PROSECUTE, NOW! This is a CRIMINAL VIOLATION OF THE LAW. STOP VOTER FRAUD! CHECK OUT KAMALA’S NEW SLEAZEBAG LAWYER. WE ARE ON THEM ALL THIS TIME! Who would have ever thought that our Country is so CORRUPT?
TRUMP: “[Kamala] is talking about we’re going to have unity and then she calls me a fascist in the next sentence.”https://t.co/B2kX05MHPN
Internal CIA documents, presentation show effort to mandate DEI at the center of the intel agency The CIA’s chief diversity officer earlier this year described his department’s efforts to ingrain DEI across the agency in hiring decisions and trainings… The CIA workforce also has an eye towards making the DEI programs permanent regardless of which administration occupies the White House… even though the President directly controls all executive branch agencies under the Constitution… https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/hdinternal-cia-documents-presentation-show-effort-enshrine-dei-center
@CurtisHouck: CBS’s Norah O’Donnell opens the ‘CBS Evening News’ mad about Trump’s garbage truck “stunt” and that people are “giving” Biden any “no grace” for calling Trump supporters “garbage” last night: Former President Donald Trump was in North Carolina earlier, and tonight, he is also in Wisconsin. “…He landed in Green Bay just a short time ago and then pulled this campaign stunt, speaking to reporters from a garbage truck, proof that he and his supporters are giving no grace to a gaffe by President Biden where he, in his explanation, inadvertently called Trump supporters garbage. This, of course, was in response to that racist joke about floating garbage told at a Trump rally just last weekend. Vice President Harris is distancing herself from the negativity and trying to drive home her unifying message that if elected, she will represent all Americans.” (CBS is a Dem adjunct!) https://x.com/CurtisHouck/status/1851793158562009404
@TomBevanRCP: It’s become pretty clear @NorahODonnell has decided to burn the place (CBS) down on her way out the door (She was retired as chief anchor on the day after November Election.).
@nicksortor: BREAKING: President Trump has filed a $10 BILLION lawsuit against CBS News for “deceptively doctoring” Kamala Harris’ 60 Minutes.
@WesternLensman: NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell blames Biden’s “garbage” comment on a “lifelong battle with stuttering.” Holy moly. This may be the most egregious propaganda press gaslighting yet on this. The entire “report” is regurgitating DNC spin, blaming apostrophes, stuttering and “context.” Who needs a White House PR team when you have legacy media to lie for you right in the face of cold, hard facts. https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1851768106882077180
@paulsperry_: FLASHBACK: The Biden-Harris EPA & DOJ in 2021 sued Puerto Rico over its massive garbage problem, inclg toxic, out-of-compliance landfills and what the Biden-Harris admin called Puerto Rico’s “open dumps.” The joke about a “floating island of garbage” may have originated with them.
Bill Clinton in Michigan: ‘Economy Was Better’ Under Donald Trump, But You Should Still Vote for Kamala Harrishttps://t.co/vOMOOI6N3l
Former President Bill Clinton calls out ‘young Arab Americans’ and defends Israel at appearance in swing state-Michigan (Looks like Slick wants Kamala to lose!) https://t.co/2P2Ohb5LyM
@TrumpWarRoom: Speaking at Kamala’s event in Wisconsin tonight is Defund the Police activist and failed 2022 Senate candidate Mandela Barnes. He advocates for releasing HALF of Wisconsin’s prison population, calls the 2020 riots “a reckoning,” and wants to abolish ICE. https://t.co/vwgT5fsF4P
@charliekirk11: Maine holds an official student mock election every four years. This year more than 20,000 students voted, and Donald Trump won 51-42. That’s a great sign. Not only have Maine students picked the eventual winner in every race going back to 2004, this is Trump’s best result by far. In 2020 he lost to Biden by 8, and in 2016 he beat Hillary by only 2 points. https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1851815294404301127
@lsferguson: We have had to listen for almost four years that January 6 was an attempted overthrow of the government. This is incorrect. All Pence was supposed to do is send back questionable election results back to the states for a forensic audit. That was it. Pence did not do this and had the authority to do so. This is not a coup. Not an overthrow of the government.
Julia Roberts mocked for campaign ad telling women they can vote differently from their husbands ‘You can vote any way you want, and no one will ever know,’ Julia Roberts tells women in the ad “The gist of it is this: Since men like your husband have taken away your right to choose abortion, you can stick it to them by exercising your right to choose Harris-Walz.“… “Women aren’t stupid. This is absurdly condescending,” a second X user said… A fitting way to end a campaign marked by dishonesty and false claims of unity.”… https://www.foxnews.com/media/julia-roberts-mocked-campaign-ad-telling-women-can-vote-differently-from-husbands
@WallStreetApes: This woman has never voted in a Presidential Election other than for Donald Trump in 2020. While reviewing her voting history it seems Democrats have been voting for her in the last 3 elections. America needs Voter ID, Paper Ballots and Same Day Votinghttps://t.co/IYA5pBM6Ev
Tim Walz allegedly told high school football player struggling with crime and alcohol to keep playinghttps://t.co/45a9VcRoAo
@DawnLisArmy: This is Kentucky. I hit Trump’s name 10 times & it wouldn’t work. I then began recording & you can see what happened…. Switched it to Harris. https://t.co/itqJkx70bL
Why do almost all voting system ‘glitches’ favor Dems?
@sourpatchlyds: The polling this year is weird. I don’t think every state is more or less tied, but that’s what the pollsters are pretty much ALL saying. Why??
@Peoples_Pundit: Because they’ll be fired if they’re too Trumpy and ruined if they’re too Democratic (again). So, they are hedging. It really is that simple. CNN cut ties with their longtime pollster ORC for being too Trumpy, despite being more accurate. ABC this year sidelined their long-time pollster not after his Biden +17 in 2020, but his Trump +10 in 2024. He now “overseas” a completely overhauled methodology. There are many effects working on pollsters this year. Chilling and mirroring are two of them.
@susancrabtree: EXCLUSIVE: Secret Service Leaders Interfered in IG Probe of J13 Assassination Attempt Against Trump —Secret Service managers sent emails to staff with the subject line “DHS OIG,” demanding that they inform their supervisors of any contact from the IG so Secret Service leaders can coordinate “an organized response” with the appropriate context. “Only we know what we do,” the bosses noted… https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2024/10/31/secret_service_brass_interfered_ig_assassination_probe_151872.html
@libsoftiktok: Jimmy Kimmel instructs viewers that if they’re voting for Trump they should vote late like Thursday or Friday. Wasn’t Douglass Mackey sentencedto prison for doing something similar? Will @TheJusticeDept investigate Jimmy Kimmel?https://t.co/cfwDl94aIZ
@JovanHPulitzer: Didn’t a guy go to jail for doing something similar? Douglass Mackey Convicted for Vote-by-Tweet Memehttps://t.co/PcSNE3fGD2
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
“It Did Occur” – Kentucky County Clerk Confirms Voting Booth ‘Glitch’ Shifted Trump Votes To Kamala
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024 – 07:00 PM
Earlier in the day, a video went viral of voters in Kentucky having ‘issues’ with an electronic voting machine that selected “Kamala Harris” when the voter had pressed on “Donald Trump”…
🚨 NEW: Some voting machines in Kentucky are NOT ALLOWING voters to select President Trump.
Instead, when they tap “Trump,” Kamala Harris ends up being selected.
Add it to the list of reasons to switch to paper ballots.
This is in Kentucky. I took this video, it was my vote. I tried to pick Trump 10 times, it would not work, so I began recoding and kept trying. I went to the head of the election board and will send this video to KY attorney General. @ScottPresler@JackPosobiec@DC_Drainopic.twitter.com/9Q7Bq4KqDp
According to the Laurel County Clerk Tony Brown, the machine was taken out of service while waiting for a rep from the AG’s Office.
Screenshot here (just in case something interesting happens to the statement)
So, the initial reaction was:
There is no vote rigging here. It’s just a vast right wing conspiracy.
Then, 3 hours later…
Ok, the voting machine was busted, but it really was just a “ballot marking device” and as long as you triple checked everything, you must have caught the error
Here’s the full statement:
The Attorney General’s office has been to the vote center to check the device that has been shown across social media today.In full disclosure, after several minutes of attempting to recreate the scenario, it did occur. This was accomplished by hitting some area in between the boxes. After that we tried for several minutes to do it again and could not.
Since this is going out across the USA and the world, I want to explain to everyone that this is a ballot marking device. You insert your blank ballot into it to vote your specific ballot for your precinct. It shows you who you have chosen for each race and notifies you if you didn’t make a selection in a race before it allows the voter to continue to the next page. When you come to the end of the ballot it shows you how you voted in every race and issue.
It confirms with each voter that they are satisfied with their selections twice before printing the ballot. Once you receive your ballot back from the ballot marking device you can review your choices again before placing it into the scanner. If you made a mistake, you may spoil that ballot and receive another one, Kentucky Law allows two spoiled ballots only. Once you are satisfied with your ballot you may place it into the scanner, and it verifies that it has been counted.
These ballot marking devices are set for a voter to touch Inside the whole box with the name of the candidates. In the video posted you can see us going back and forth through the names with no issues. This is the same machine used by the voter in the video.
BREAKING.🚨
New statement released on voting machines in Laurel County, Kentucky that reportedly would not let voters elect Donald Trump for President and instead were automatically selecting Kamala Harris.
It remained at its location in the vote center and was set face down until the representative from the Attorney General’s Office arrived to investigate. There were no claims of any issues with the device prior, and none since it went back into service. The voter who posted the video did cast her ballot which she said was correct.
I hate that this has occurred here in Laurel County.
We strive to have accurate, secure and safe elections that we are proud to provide to our citizens. I hope all can get to the polls and make your voice heard November 5th. If you read through this entire post, thank you very much for your time.
…isn’t it ‘funny’ how these ‘glitches’ are never in Trump’s favor?
END
“A Breach Of Protocol”: White House Overrode Stenographers, Altered “Garbage” Transcript
Thursday, Oct 31, 2024 – 11:30 PM
In a mad scramble to cover for President Biden calling half of the country “garbage,” White House press officials altered the official transcript, overriding official stenographers who objected to the alterations, the Associated Press reports.
According to the pre-altered transcript, Biden said “The only garbage I see floating out there is his supporters — his — his demonization of Latinos is unconscionable, and it’s un-American.”
However White House press office added an apostrophe, reading “supporter’s” rather than “supporters,” in order to peddle the falsehood that Biden was criticizing comic Tony Hinchcliffe, who referred to the US island territory of Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage.”
The change was made after the press office “conferred with the president,” according to an internal email from the head of the stenographers’ office that was obtained by The AP. The authenticity of the email was confirmed by two government officials who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.
The supervisor, in the email, called the press office’s handling of the matter “a breach of protocol and spoliation of transcript integrity between the Stenography and Press Offices.” -AP
According to the email, the press office demanded that stenographers quickly produce a transcript of Biden’s call with Latino activists to discuss Hinchicliffe’s comments, while Biden’s social media team posted on X that he was not calling all Trump supporters garbage – and that he was specifically referring to the “hateful rhetoric about Puerto Rico spewed by Trump’s supporter at his Madison Square Garden rally.”
The two-person stenography team on duty that evening, a “typer” and a “proofer” said that any edits to the official transcript would have to be approved by their supervisor, the head of the stenographer’s office – who was unavailable. Because of this, the White House press office went ahead and published an altered transcript on the White House website and distributed it to the press and social media in a mad scramble.
The supervisor did not like that…
“If there is a difference in interpretation, the Press Office may choose to withhold the transcript but cannot edit it independently,” wrote the supervisor, adding “Our Stenography Office transcript — released to our distro, which includes the National Archives — is now different than the version edited and released to the public by Press Office staff.“
The supervisor, a career White House employee, raised concerns about the alteration in an email to White House communications director Ben LaBolt, press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, and other officials.
“Regardless of urgency, it is essential to our transcripts’ authenticity and legitimacy that we adhere to consistent protocol for requesting edits, approval, and release,” he wrote.
The alteration was done as the White House scrambled to respond to a cascade of press inquiries over Biden’s comments – which completely upstaged Kamala Harris’ closing argument speech outside the White House.
As journalist Michael Shellenberger points out, it was likely illegal.
The Presidential Records Act prohibits altering official transcripts, which is what the White House did. And the alteration makes no sense. The White House is now claiming Biden was referring to the racism of Trump's supporters, but the transcript refers to "his supporter's." pic.twitter.com/XaTFXowY2t
Biden’s comment was a gift to the Trump campaign, which immediately capitalized on it – fundraising off the quote, while Trump himself held a photo op inside a garbage truck on Wednesday.
Harris also moved to quickly distance herself from Biden’s comments, telling reporters “I strongly disagree with any criticism of people based on who they vote for.”
Meanwhile, House Republicans have been discussing launching an investigation into the fabrication – with House Republican Conference Chairwoman Elise Stefanik, R-(NY), and House Oversight and Accountability Chairman James Comer, R-(KY), on Wednesday accusing the White House of “releasing a false transcript” of Biden’s remarks, and called on White House counsel Ed Siskel to retain documents and internal communications related to Biden’s remarks and the transcript.
“White House staff cannot rewrite the words of the President of the United States to be more politically on message,” the lawmakers wrote, noting that it may have been a violation of the Presidential Records Act of 1978.
Wow.
The AP just admitted that the Biden regime altered the “garbage” transcript. They added the apostrophe and overrode the stenographer.
This is Orwellian. They WITTINGLY deceived the public in order to impact the result of the election.
President Trump has filed a $10 billion lawsuit against CBS news over its deceptive editing of Kamala Harris’ 60 Minutes interview.
Trump is accusing CBS of election interference to help Harris, with his attorneys stating “CBS’ partisan and unlawful acts of election and voter interference through malicious, deceptive, and substantial news distortion calculated to confuse, deceive, and mislead the public.”
Trump further charges that CBS was blatantly attempting “to tip the scales in favor of the Democratic Party as the heated 2024 Presidential Election — which President Trump is leading — approaches its conclusion.”
“President Trump brings this action to redress the immense harm caused to him, to his campaign, and to tens of millions of citizens in Texas and across America by CBS’s deceptive broadcasting conduct,” the lawsuit further states.
60 Minutes was caught editing Kamala’s answers in an attempt to make her sound somewhat coherent. They left her word salad answer to a question about Israel on the cutting room floor, replacing it with a completely different sentence that she said earlier in the interview.
Trump: Let's put Liz Cheney with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her. Let's see how she feels about it when the guns are trained on her face pic.twitter.com/DTUwgS3oWv
CBS News has also refused to release the full transcript of the interview.
Trump should also file a lawsuit against Harris’ campaign for deceptively editing footage of him speaking at rallies and during interviews.
Yet again Thursday, the Kamala HQ X account posted an out of context clip of Trump talking about Liz Cheney, with a caption insinuating that he’d like to see her shot in the face.
CONTEXT: He’s talking about how politicians are so quick to send young Americans to die in foreign endless wars
“They're all war hawks when they're sitting in Washington in a nice building saying Oh gee, let's send 10,000 troops into the mouths of the enemy.” pic.twitter.com/0FSXRntsEF
If you watch the full clip, Trump is talking about how hawkish Cheney is, and how such politicians will eagerly send young Americans to die in pointless wars while they sit in their DC offices.
With the example above from yesterday, where Trump wasn’t even talking about abortion or women’s rights, Harris repeated the lie and CBS made it headline news:
The only people this will work on is low IQ morons, which tells you something about how the Harris campaign views American voters.
*END
WOW! Obama and Comey should go to prison for this!
Obama FBI Ran Off-The-Books ‘Honeypot’ Operation On Trump Campaign In 2015: Whistleblower
Friday, Nov 01, 2024 – 02:20 PM
A whistleblower has told the House Judiciary Committee that the Obama FBI launched an off-the-books operation targeting Donald Trump and his campaign as soon as he announced his bid for the White House in 2015.
The operation, ordered by then-FBI Director James B. Comey, predicated the Crossfire Hurricane operation. According to an FBI agent involved in the clandestine criminal investigation, Comey sent two female FBI undercover agents to infiltrate Trumps 2016 campaign at high levels, who were directed to act as “honeypots” while traveling with Trump and his campaign staff on the trail, the Washington Times reports.
According to the disclosure, which The Washington Times reviewed, the investigation differed from the later Crossfire Hurricane counterintelligence operation targeting Russian collusion. It said the early off-the-books probe was a criminal investigation targeting Mr. Trump and his 2016 presidential campaign staff.
The agent “personally knew” that Mr. Comey ordered an FBI investigation against Mr. Trump and that Mr. Comey “personally directed it,” according to the disclosure.
The whistleblower says that the investigation wasn’t targeting any specific crimes, but was more of a ‘fishing expedition’ to try and find something incriminating on Trump.
Former FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecher told the Times that if the report is true, it’s a “booming, egregious violation” of the rules governing the attorney general and the FBI.
“It’s an unpredicated infiltration of a presidential campaign which is sensitive,” he said. “It’s sensitive to the point where it would have to have been approved by the [attorney general] and … would have to be predicated. And in this case, I’m not hearing any predication. It would have to be on the books anyway, regardless.”
Unlike Crossfire Hurricane – a counterintelligence investigation into whether members of the Trump campaign coordinated, knowingly or unknowingly, with the Russian government – the earlier honeypot operation “had no predicated foundation, so Mr. Comey personally directed the investigation without creating an official case file in Sentinel or any other FBI system.”
The report claims that the undercover agents’ real targets included campaign adviser George Papadopoulos, a now-infamous figure in the Trump-Russia saga. Papadopoulos ultimately pled guilty to a single count of making false statements to the FBI about his Russian contacts—a charge that landed him 12 days in prison. But documents released later showed that he had repeatedly denied Trump campaign involvement in the 2016 hacking of the Democratic National Committee emails.
In one chilling detail, the whistleblower’s disclosure alleges that the FBI closed the secret operation only after a journalist got hold of a photograph of one of the undercover agents, threatening to publish it. In an attempt to quash the story, the FBI press office reportedly told the outlet that the photo depicted an “informant” whose life could be endangered if her identity was revealed.
One of the undercover agents was allegedly moved to the CIA to keep her out of the spotlight as a potential witness, while another FBI employee involved in the operation was promoted.
Comey, who was fired by Trump in 2017 amid controversy over the Russia probe, has yet to respond to the new allegations.
harveyorganblog.com 
