first a tweet from James Holley, advisor to the pharmaceutical industry:
James Holley tweet:
Sources tell me top five CEOs of pharmaceutical companies are holding an emergency teleconference at 1 PM. A lawyer has confirmed that everyone is in a state of panic!
·
3.9M Views
They are now frightened to death because they committed democide.
THEN THIS: (FROM ROBERT H TO US)
John Kulak Kramlich on X: “Pfizer’s Headquarters right now after realizing RFK Jr. will soon control the public health agencies. https://t.co/NGwVTP638G” / X
https://x.com/jkramlich/status/1854015988141814226
GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $72,80 TO $2668.20
SILVER PRICE DOWN $1.41 TO $32.65
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2662.15
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.19
Bitcoin morning price:$74,381 UP 4389 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $75,839 UP 3885 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $10,25 TO $989,80
Palladium price; DOWN $37.00 TO $1042.30
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3711.34 DOWN 87.50 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2065.65 DOWN 39.30 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,480.27 DOWN 20.82 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)
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EXCHANGE;
ACCESS MARKET
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,740.300000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/05/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 11/07/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 6
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 3
737 C ADVANTAGE 1 1
905 C ADM 12 3
TOTAL: 13 13
MONTH TO DATE: 1,597
JPMorgan stopped 0/13
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 13 NOTICES FOR 1300 OZ 0.0404 TONNES
total notices so far: 1597 contracts for 159700 Oz (4.9673 tonnes)
FOR NOV
SILVER NOTICES: 3 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.15 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 652 for 3.260 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $1.41 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY OUT OF THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.841 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 127 CONTRACTS TO 151,126 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.18 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 2513 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.18 IN PRICE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE WITH NO SUCCESS WITH TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE TUESDAY.. WE HAD A HUGE 2620 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS 1721 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AND THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS PLUS TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE WITH ANOTHER ABJECT FAILURE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE 2513 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A MEGA HUMONGOUS 1721 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.18) AND WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 2513 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUGE 2640 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 5,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING RISES TO: 3.455 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 3.4550 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1721 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED 200 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 4 DAYS, total 5220 contracts: OR 26.100 MILLION OZ (1305 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 26.100 MILLION OZ
LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 26.100 MILLION OZ (WILL BE QUITE LARGE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 152 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.18 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 625 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 2.810 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 3.455 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 2513 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 1721 CONTRACTS ( WILL BE USED FOR WEDNESDAY’S TRADING),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (1721) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 3 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.015 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 91 OI CONTRACTS TO 558,034 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 692 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (127 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR GAIN OF $4.05 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG 1200 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING 5.126 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 5.126 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $4.05 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX TRADING///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 2659 OI CONTRACTS (8,27 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 1600 OZ)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2750 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 558,726
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2659 CONTRACTS WITH 91 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2750 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 2659 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A HUGE SIZED 4162 CONTRACTS, WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4162 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 91 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 2659 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1200 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 5.126 TONNES
/ 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE RISE WITH ZERO SUCCESS MONDAY , AND WITH ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED AS THEY WERE REWARDED THURSDAY AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 4162 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF OCT :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 22,350 CONTRACTS OF 2,235,000 OZ OR 69.517 TONNES IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5588 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 4 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 69.517 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 69.517 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 1.83% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 69.517 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 127 CONTRACTS OI TO 151,070 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 2640 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 2640 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2640 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 127 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 2640 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 2313 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 12.561 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.18 GAIN IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.18 PTS OR 0.09%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 468.59 PTS OR 2.23%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1005.77OR 2.61%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.81%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1790 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2014// Oil DOWN TO 70.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 91 CONTRACTS TO 558,034 WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $4.05 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2750).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 112+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT 197 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE. THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S GAIN IN PRICE AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING. HOWEVER MANY LONGS WERE CLIPPED ON THURSDAY’S AND FRIDAY’S RAID. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A GOOD SIZED 2750 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 2750 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2750 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG TOTAL OF 2659 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2750 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A SMALL SIZED LOSS OF 91 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GOOD ADVANCE IN PRICE OF $4.05 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SIZED 4162 CONTRACTS, WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (5.126 TONNES) WHICH IS GOOD FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 5.126 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY $4.05/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY BUT THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 8.270 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 12 CONTRACTS OR 1200 OZ (.0373 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A GOOD SIZED QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD.
//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 5.126 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 5.126 TONNES
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $2.45
WE HAD 61 CONTRACTS ADDED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2659 CONTRACTS OR 265,900 OZ (8.29 TONNES)
confirmed volume TUESDAY 164,068 contracts poor
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
NOV 6 OCT GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE NOV 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | NIL |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 13 notice(s) 1300 OZ 0.0404 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 51 contracts 5100 OZ 0.1586 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 1597 notices 158,700oz 4.9673 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 0
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 64 contracts having LOST 4 contracts. We had 16 contracts served on TUESSDAY so we gained 12 contracts as they underwent a good queue jump of 1200 oz (.0373 TONNES OF GOLD)
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 9544 CONTRACTS TO 389,315
JANUARY GAINED 40 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 57
FEBRUARY GAINED 7381 CONTRACTS TO 106,913 .
We had 13 contracts filed for today representing 1300 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 13 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1597 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(64 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz per contract( equals 164,800 OZ OR 5.126 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (1597 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (64 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (13 x 100 oz which equals 164,800 oz (5.126 TONNES) +
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 5.126 TONNES WHICH IS GOOD FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,599,125.751 oz 49.74 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,133,368.992 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,619,760.679/// 237.00tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,513,608.313 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,020,635 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 187.26 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 6. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE NOV 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | nil oz . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,796,162.230 oz HSBC LOOMIS |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 3 CONTRACT(S) (16,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 39 contracts (195,000oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 652 Contracts (3.260 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits
i) Into HSBC 598,141.89 oz
ii) Into Loomis 1,198,020.340 oz
total customer deposits 1,996,162.230 oz
We had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawal nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/310.913million or 43.10%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.073MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 310.913 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR OCT
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 42 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT
WE HAD 0 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 1 CONTRACT OR 5,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 3785 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 111,136 CONTRACTS
JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 41 CONTRACTS UP TO 994
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 3 for 0.015 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 59,376 fair
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 652x 5,000 oz = 3.260 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (42) and the number of notices served upon today (3)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month: 652 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(42) number of notices served upon today minus (3)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 3.455 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 3.455 million oz.
There are 70.077 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 886..91 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ
OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 475.841 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
Schiff: The Data Says Stagflation
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 11:25 AM
On Friday Peter capped off the week by discussing the latest round of troubling data. With the nonfarm payroll report coming in far below expectations, Peter elaborates on the predicament the Fed is in. With mounting political pressure and an election in mere days, how will the Fed possibly manage both inflation and a stagnating labor market? Peter’s answer? They can’t.
During the last several months, the media and political class have insisted the economy is healthy, even if it is cooling. But disappointing economic metrics and multiple downward revisions to important data reinforce the American consumer’s intuition. The economy is not doing well:
“Voters are not necessarily fooled. That’s why so many want change – they don’t want to stay the course. They’re not buying what the media is selling about how great the Biden-Harris economy is. In fact, all the data coming out this week confirms that this is a weak economy. We’re probably in a recession. It’s stagflation, or worse—recession and inflation at the same time.”
The Fed’s gambit to cut rates and hope for the best is backfiring. The cuts have actually triggered long-term rates to rise, and the recent nonfarm payroll report is only going to make things worse:
“Rising government debt is causing bond investors to lose confidence in the Treasury’s ability to repay without creating inflation. What’s happening in the bond market is exactly what I predicted. … Today’s results offer more proof. They were expecting 125,000 jobs, but we ended up with just 12,000—well below the lowest estimate of 57,000. Plus, the prior two months were revised down.”
The Fed is stuck between inflation and a stagnating economy. The nation’s eyes are on the election, and it’s very unlikely Jerome Powell will be able to resist political pressure to start printing more money:
“The Fed’s not going to do anything about it—they can’t. In fact, they’re going to fuel the fire. They’re going to cut rates, going back to quantitative easing, because the recession is going to keep getting worse. The economy will weaken as inflation gets stronger. So what can they do? They can’t fight both; they have to pick. And all the political pressure, whether from Harris or Trump, will push them toward stimulating the economy.”
Turning to the latest campaign headlines, Peter notes that the betting market have seemingly backed off of their Trump optimism. In reality, Peter says, this fluctuation is probably the result of traders closing their positions, not a sudden loss of confidence in Trump:
“It reached about $55 a share on Tuesday and then closed barely over $30, at $30.56. DJT stock was plunging as traders took profits on DJT, covering their bets on Donald Trump and unwinding them. That’s why we saw this big move today, with Harris shooting up and Trump collapsing. It’s not that the polls really changed or that Trump is much less likely to win today than yesterday; it’s simply that those who made those bets now have an incentive to cover because they exited their trade.”
In other news, Michael Saylor’s company, MicroStrategy, is planning on purchasing over $40 billion in Bitcoin. Peter shows his literary side, comparing Saylor to the myopic Captain Ahab:
“He really is Captain Ahab, and Bitcoin is his Moby Dick. But he’s going to go down, and everyone on the ship is going down with him. Even if I were bullish on Bitcoin—I know there are people who watch this podcast and say, ‘Hey, I agree with everything Peter Schiff says, except for Bitcoin.’ So, if you really like Bitcoin, here’s what you need to do: Sell your Bitcoin now and buy it back when MicroStrategy goes bankrupt.”
Peter wraps up what may be his last podcast before the election with a sober dose of reality. Donald Trump is undoubtedly the best hope America has to fix our political dysfunction, but we shouldn’t pretend his track record is something to be proud of:
“Everybody knows I support Trump. I’ve encouraged my supporters to vote for him. But I am not going to say that his first term was an economic miracle. Now, I know people like to oversell, hype it up to get votes, but that destroys all your credibility. If we’re ever going to solve the problems that need solving, we can’t pretend that Trump’s first term was great. All the problems got worse under Trump. They would have gotten worse under Hillary too, but they got worse under Trump. Government spending increased—where’s the miracle? Trade deficits hit record highs under Trump even before COVID. … They slashed interest rates to zero, and we had massive quantitative easing. That’s the illusion that was created.”
Make sure you catch up on other news from last week with JD and Joel’s analysis on the SchiffGold Gold Wrap Podcast.
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
Alasdair Macleod…a must read
The consequences of Trump’s win
After the initial euphoria in corporate America comes the crash. Here’s why…
| Alasdair MacleodNov 6∙Paid |
In futures trading, the initial reaction was for the S&P 500 to rise nearly 2% overnight. The dollar’s TWI soared 1.6% as well, while gold fell by 0.6%. These are reflex actions, which will be followed by more sober assessments of what a Trump administration means for America and the wider world.
Going on Trump’s economic and tax policies, he will need debt headroom to accommodate income and corporation tax cuts. This means the debt ceiling due to be reset on 3 January will need to be at least $40 trillion (currently nearly $36 trillion). Furthermore, his policy of increasing tariffs on foreign, particularly Chinese imports will increase the CPI, so we can forget currently discounted cuts in the Fed Funds rate.
Here are some of the knock-on consequences:
· US bond yields are headed higher, likely much higher. The rise in the CPI could even lead to the Fed raising the funds rate.
· The already stretched relationship between bonds and equities will see equities crash after the initial euphoria.
· Refinancings in the corporate sector will be increasingly difficult, and where achieved will be at higher rates.
· In short, the US is about to be overwhelmed by a debt crisis at the government level with serious consequences for debt zombies in the private sector.
· In conclusion so far, start reaching for histories of the 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act to get a feel for the consequences of excessive tariffs.
· Higher US bond yields will lead to serious consequences for other indebted nations — almost all of the G7 (Germany excepted, but she has other problems).
· UK gilt yields will soar even relative to US Treasury yields. Japan becomes a horror show, and the EU will start collapsing under the weight of its debt and stagnant economy.
In short, financial assets were already on a slippery slope and they have just had an unwelcome dose of extra lubrication. For those who doubt it, riddle me this: How is a $40 trillion USG debt going to be funded? And at what rate? And at what maturities? When we had these problems in the UK in 1976 the IMF were called in (powerless in these circumstances today) and bond coupons rose to over 15%!
Some geopolitical consequences of US isolationism under Trump:
· Trade wars will return with a vengeance with repeated rounds of tit-for-tat.
· Ukraine is finished, the hot war being replaced with a cold one and Russia keeping its gained territories. Being abandoned by Trump, Europe will be left politically wrongfooted with its political credibility in tatters.
· America will find it far more difficult to escape from the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. But the sacking of Netanyahu’s defence minister tells us that that’s not going well either and pressure on the US to step up her involvement will mount.
· With tariffs against China and with US naval manoeuvres in the South China/East China seas and Taiwan, this theatre of cold war promises to become increasingly dangerous.
· China’s economic difficulties will increase. Her response to these pressures might not be as benign as they have been so far.
In summary, get out of credit and into real, legal money which has no counterparty risk which is only GOLD.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA. DISPATCHES
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 197 ANDREW MAGUIRE
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: ALUMINA
.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.18 PTS OR 0.09%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 468.59 PTS OR 2.23%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 1005.77OR 2.61%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.81%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.1790 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2014// Oil DOWN TO 70.66 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.95 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.1790
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2014
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 3,18 PTS OR 0.09%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 468.59 PTS OR 2/23%
2. Nikkei closed UP 1005.77 PTS OR 2.61%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 105.28 EURO FALLS TO 1.0697 DOWN 237 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +0.979 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.86…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.4150 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.698 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.136
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.276
3j Gold at $2664.50 /Silver at: 31.04 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 46/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 99.25
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.35 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 0.979% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8763 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9374 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.454 UP 17 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.648 UP 20 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.285 UP 8 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.22…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.6130 UP 7 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.376 UP 13 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.152 UP 7 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Markets Erupt: Dow Futures Up 1,300, Dollar Soars After Historic Trump Three-Peat
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 08:21 AM
Trump won in 2016, he also won in 2020 (but it was stolen from him thanks to 20 million “vapor” votes which magically failed to make a re-appearance in 2024), and he just won again in a landslide, not just the electoral but the popular vote as well… and boy are markets rocking!
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election has unleashed a shockwave in global markets as traders prepared for unprecedented policy and economic changes under the new administration. Trump’s political comeback sparked a surge in risk assets, sending 30-year Treasury yields and the dollar to their biggest gains since 2020…
… Dow futures soared more than 1,300 points…
…. S&P 500 futures climbed 2.3%…
… and Bitcoin spiked to a record.
Tesla co-founded by Trump’s biggest backer Elon Musk, surged 15% in premarket trading.
From London to Tokyo, investors around the globe grappled with the far-reaching effects of a Trump presidency, which according to Bloomberg “is expected to bring steep tariffs on imported products, worsen trade tensions with China and increase pressure on Europe to ramp up defense spending.” Apparently it is also sending risk assets soaring. The Mexican peso – viewed as the anti-Trump trade due to his threats to flood Mexico’s economy with tariffs – fell the most in three months and the euro led losses among Group-of-10 currencies.
“We’ve been talking about this Trump trade for a while. The fairly aggressive market reaction shows that investors didn’t know what to put on, and now they know,” Marvin Loh, senior macro strategist at State Street Global Markets, told Bloomberg TV. “A lot of us will be asking is which ones potentially have either a lot more to move or really does not yet reflect the type of administration.”
For those who missed it, here is a recap of what happened in the year’s biggest event:
- Presidency & Senate: Trump is projected to have secured the Presidency and the Senate. On the Presidency, the main updates came relatively early doors from the North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia swing states which all went in favor of Trump. As it stands, Trump has 277 electoral votes with Harris on 224 (270 required), with the count continuing. For the Senate, Rep. gained two seats pushing them to 51 (50 required) vs 42 for the Dems, as it stands.
- House: The House remains too close to call. Major updates which were expected from California in the last few hours haven’t been sufficient to skew the too-close-to-call races in the state. As it stands, Republicans are projected to have gained two seats taking their tally to 200 (218 required) while the Democrats are on 188, having lost two. While the race can’t yet be called, Decision Desk assigns a ~58% probability of a Rep. senate; note, this is down from a 65% peak just after Pennsylvania was called in the Presidential race. Given how close the race is, it could be days or possibly weeks until we have an answer on the House.
This is how all major asset classes reacted:
- US equity futures boosted by the Trump presidency; ES +1.8%, NQ +1.7%, DJIA +2.0%, RTY +4.3%. Additionally, Trump sensitive names (i.e. TSLA & DJT) are posting significant gains.
- European futures sent lower by almost 1% initially, given the potential trade/growth ramifications; however, this move tempered significantly into the European session with benchmarks now firmer by c. 1%. Action which is potentially driven by enthusiasm elsewhere and perhaps also influenced by a particularly busy morning of earnings.
- APAC trade saw the Hang Seng close lower by just over 2%, while the Nikkei 225 closed higher by 2.2% (benefitting from JPY action).
- For Fixed, USTs under marked pressure with the curve steepening though we await details on the House to see if this narrative flips into flattening; USTs at a contract low. Probability of a 25bps cut on Thursday’s FOMC remains essentially fully priced.
- EGBs diverge from this and are bid, with yields lower across the European curve as markets price increasing odds of frontloading action from monetary authorities; US-Ger. 10yr yield spread above 200bps (c. 195bps on Tue.). Focus also on the House, as that will influence the degree of widening.
- FX sees the DXY bid, largest jump since March 2020. EUR lags given the trade risk and potential for monetary frontloading, AUD & NZD hit on China-exposure. JPY pressured given the potential for tighter Fed policy.
- Commodities has Crude weighed on by the USD and also “drill baby, drill” language coming to mind in terms of potential Trump-driven supply increases from the US. Gold softer and base metals particularly dented, awaiting updates on China stimulus which could be much higher under a Trump US presidency.
- Crypto saw BTC hit a record high, though has faded from this slightly and seemingly tracking the House odds to a degree.
Equities also reflected expectations that Trump would loosen financial regulation, embrace crypto and support fossil fuel producers. JPMorgan and Bank of America shares advanced in early trading. Tilray, a cannabis company, sank 10% after Florida voters rejected a ballot measure to legalize recreational marijuana. Elsewhere in the premarket:
- Prison operators rose, with Trump seen as having a harder stance on the immigration issue. GEO Group (GEO) +22%, CoreCivic (CXW) +18%
- Crypto related stocks gain with Bitcoin, which is viewed by many as a so-called Trump trade because Trump embraced digital assets during his campaign after a major push by the industry. Marathon Digital (MARA) +9%, Riot Platforms (RIOT) +10%
- In the auto sector, Tesla (TSLA) soars 11% as investors wager the carmaker run by Elon Musk will be a major beneficiary of Trump’s return to the White House. Meanwhile, Ford (F) +2% and GM (GM) +2%. Other stocks in the electric vehicle sector were falling, given Trump’s pledge to entirely reverse Biden’s EV policy
- Rivian Automotive (RIVN) -3%
- US health insurers focused on the Medicare market jumped on expectation that the second Trump administration will pay higher rates to companies that provide private versions of the US health program for seniors. UnitedHealth (UNH) +7%, Humana (HUM) +9%
Some other notable premarket movers:
- Bigbear.ai (BBAI) slides 6% after the AI software company reported revenue for the 3Q that missed the average analyst estimate.
- Coupang (CPNG) drops 6% after the e-commerce company reported third-quarter net sales that fell short of estimates. Morgan Stanley noted a step-up in technology spending, which it said was not expected by the market.
- Exact Sciences (EXAS) tumbles 22% as the colon cancer test maker cut guidance.
- Qualys (QLYS) jumps 20% after the information-security company’s 3Qearnings beat estimates and it raised its outlook for the year.
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) plunges 15% after the company’s 2Q sales forecast fell short of expectations. The troubled server maker it said it couldn’t predict when it would file official financial statements for the previous fiscal year.
Goldman’s trading desk said a Republican sweep may push the S&P 500 up by 3%, while moves would be half as much in the event of a divided government. A Morgan Stanley note said risk-taking appetite may dip in the event of a Republican sweep as fiscal concerns fuel yields, but if bond markets take it in their stride the likes of growth-sensitive cyclical stocks would rise.
We will have much more to say on the kneejerk reactions, but here are some more hot takes from Wall Street:
- Anastasia Amoroso at iCapital: We have a new investment regime most likely for the next four years or at least the next two years until the next midterm election. This means you can commit to some of those trades. The reason why small caps are rallying is because they are more sensitive to the republican majority and that is helping sentiment, domestic orientation and potential for lower tax.
- Justin Onuekwusi at St. James’s Place: There is potential for higher short-term volatility in bond markets in the aftermath of the election. We think this is particularly likely around US Treasuries as sentiment adjusts to the result. Possible higher inflation may also cause yields for long-term bonds to rise higher than short-term bonds. This is sometimes seen as a signal for the start of a strong economic period but can also indicate a time of higher interest rates.
- Charlotte Daughtrey at Federated Hermes: Trump’s “proposed tariffs may be reflationary. This may impact the pace of rate cuts or perhaps push them back into a rate hiking cycle, something they are keen to avoid.”
- Mohit Kumar at Jefferies: We see a continuation of the US equities rally. Our view has been that a number of investors are sitting on the sidelines and waiting for election uncertainty to be out of the way. Assuming a clean election result, with Trump policies largely considered positive for the market, a growth picture that is doing fine and a Fed that is ready to cut rates, we see further upside in US equities. We also expect US equities to continue to outperform Europe and global indexes.
- Samy Chaar at Lombard Odier: The race for the House of Representatives will determine whether campaign pledges can be fully implemented. The question of tariffs is key for global trade and the Fed’s easing prospects.
- James Demmert at Main Street Research: Investors should look past the election and focus on the fundamentals of what drives markets. The economy and earnings continue to be better than expected, most stocks are reasonably priced and the Fed is in an accommodative mode and is expected to cut interest rates again this week. There is an excellent backdrop for stocks right now.
In Europe, stock gains have faded slightly as investors contemplate the risk of increased potential trade protectionism by a Trump administration. The Stoxx 600 is up 1.2% with health care and travel shares leading gains, while utilities and automobile sectors were the biggest laggards. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
- Securitas gains as much as 11%, to highest since May 2019, after the Stockholm-listed security services firm delivered results ahead of expectations in the third quarter
- Novo Nordisk shares rise as much as 8.9%, the most in roughly 8 months, after the Danish drugmaker reported Wegovy sales for the third quarter that beat estimates
- Zealand Pharma shares gain as much as 7.6%, after the Danish biotech company said moderate doses of its experimental weight-loss drug helped patients pare pounds with less nausea than some other next-generation contenders
- Wise shares jump as much as 8.2%, after the money transfer platform operator reported underlying profit for the first half that was well ahead of expectations thanks to a better gross margin and lower operating costs
- Credit Agricole falls as much as 5.7%, the most since August, with analysts describing the French lender’s 3Q print as “slightly underwhelming,” with a miss on revenues, weighed down by lagging momentum in the insurance arm
- EDP Renovaveis shares fall as much as 8.4% to €11.58 and trade 7.6% lower as of 8:14 a.m. in Lisbon after the renewable energy co. reported a 53% drop in nine-month net income
- Siemens Healthineers shares jump as much as 8.9%, the most since February 2023, after the German medical technology company reported fourth-quarter results that Stifel said were “much better than feared”
- BBVA shares dropped 5.6% in Madrid trading as Donald Trump closed in on a US election victory, with Barclays analysts earlier flagging that such an outcome would impact the bank’s Mexican business
- BMW shares fall as much as 7% after the German carmaker’s profit margin dropped to a four-year low due to a costly recall and weak China demand. Analysts highlight an “un-BMW” miss on free cash flow
- Commerzbank AG shares declined as much as 2.6% as higher-than-expected provisions and what analysts see as downside risk to 2025 net interest income overshadowed better-than-expected profit in the third quarter
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index is up 1.4%, with the greenback logging its largest gain against the euro in G-10 space. The Mexican peso is one of the biggest losers overall with a 2.6% drop.
In rates, treasuries lost out, with US 10-year yields jumping 17 bps to 4.44% and the 2s10s curve steepening. Traders also pared Fed interest-rate cut bets while amping up their bets of European rate reductions, pricing in a faster pace of easing by the ECB and BOE to the benefit of bunds and gilts.
In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 1.3% to $71 a barrel. Spot gold drops $24 to around $2,720/oz. Bitcoin soared 7% to a record high.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for September, and the final services and composite PMIs for October in the Euro Area. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Escriva, Vujcic and Villeroy.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures up 2.2% to 5,940.00
- STOXX Europe 600 up 1.5% to 517.16
- MXAP down 0.2% to 187.54
- MXAPJ down 0.7% to 597.31
- Nikkei up 2.6% to 39,480.67
- Topix up 1.9% to 2,715.92
- Hang Seng Index down 2.2% to 20,538.38
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,383.81
- Sensex up 1.1% to 80,384.52
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.8% to 8,199.55
- Kospi down 0.5% to 2,563.51
- German 10Y yield down 4.6 bps at 2.38%
- Euro down 1.5% to $1.0761
- Brent Futures down 1.9% to $74.06/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.8% to $2,721.04
- US Dollar Index up 1.37% to 104.84
Top Overnight News
- Donald Trump won the presidential election after securing key swing states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The GOP flipped Senate seats in Ohio and West Virginia to take control of the chamber. Trump said America has given him an “unprecedented” mandate. BBG
- BOJ minutes suggest central bank officials saw the economy making further progress, laying the groundwork for additional policy tightening. Reuters
- Some Asian monetary authorities are already moving to guard their currencies as US election-related volatility fuels a surge in the dollar. So far, there have been signals from China, India and Indonesia. BBG
- China’s central bank chief pledged to maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance and to double down on countercyclical adjustments to support the country’s economic growth. BBG
- Germany’s factory orders for Sept came in ahead of expectations at +4.2% M/M (vs. the Street +1.5%). WSJ
- US crude inventories rose by 3.1 million barrels last week, the API is said to have reported. That would take total holdings to the highest in almost three months if confirmed by the EIA today. Fuel supplies declined. BBG
- Novo Nordisk stock rose after Wegovy sales beat expectations last quarter, a potential relief for investors after Lilly’s disappointing obesity drug sales last week. BBG
- The Mexican peso led a slide in emerging market currencies. Ukraine’s dollar-denominated sovereign bonds jumped on expectations that the war with Russia will end quickly, as Trump has previously vowed. BBG
- Tesla soared premarket as investors wagered it’ll benefit from Elon Musk’s all-in bet on Trump. JPMorgan, BofA, Wells Fargo and Citi shares all gained more than 6%. Trump Media leapt. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the risk on performance on Wall St as participants digested the US Presidential Election results where Trump is leading so far, and betting markets boosted their pricing of the former President returning to the White House. ASX 200 was lifted with outperformance in tech, consumer discretionary and financials leading the gains seen in all sectors. Nikkei 225 surged above the 39,000 level with the momentum propelled by a weaker currency. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged with the Hong Kong benchmark the worst hit as tech was pressured amid the increased tariff threat for Chinese companies, while the mainland traded indecisively as prospects of looming fiscal stimulus offset the tariff threat.
Top Asian News
- Chinese Premier Li said in a meeting with Malaysia’s PM that the sides should push forward flagship railway and industrial development projects, while he added that both should look into emerging areas and new areas for potential cooperation, according to Xinhua.
- BoJ September meeting minutes stated that members shared the view BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if its economic and price forecasts are met, while members agreed that the BoJ must scrutinize market developments and the overseas economic outlook for the time being as markets remain unstable and many members said BoJ must scrutinise not just market moves but the factors behind their volatility such as US and overseas economic developments. Furthermore, a few members said the BoJ can afford to spend time scrutinising the impact of overseas and market developments on Japan’s economy and prices, while one member said the BoJ should hold off on raising rates until global and market uncertainties diminish and a member also said it is undesirable to change the policy rate level now as financial and economic uncertainties are high, although one member said there could be times when raising rates would be appropriate even when markets are unstable.
- Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi said it’s important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals. Intend to watch closely on FX moves, including speculative moves, with a higher sense of urgency. Will do utmost in managing economic and fiscal policy while working closely with the BoJ.
- UMC (UMC, 2303 TW) October (TWD): Net Sales 21.3bln (prev. 19.19bln), +11.36% Y/Y.
- China’s Foreign Ministry say China will continue to work with the US on the basis of ‘mutual respect’. China’s policy towards the US is consistent.
- Chinese President Xi has urged Chinese officials again to meet annual economic target, according to Bloomberg.
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+1.7%) opened on a strong footing and continue to edge higher, with Presidential Candidate Trump poised to win the election. Indices have dipped off best levels in recent trade. Note, European futures were lower by as much as 1% pre-open, before picking up given the US enthusiasm. European sectors hold a strong positive bias, with only Utilities and Autos trading in the red; latter sensitive to potential tarriff updates. Healthcare tops the pack, buoyed by gains in Novo Nordisk, post-earnings. US Equity Futures (ES 2.1%, NQ +1.7%, RTY +5.5%) are entirely in the green, with the “Trump Trade” very much in full swing, with the Republican nominee on the cusp of a historic victory. As a result, the economy-linked RTY is the clear outperformer today. US pre-market movers include; Tesla (+12.9%), Trump Media (+38.5%), Exxon (+2.9%), Morgan Stanley (+5.9%), JD.Com (-4.1%)
Top European News
- UK think tank NIESR forecasts the BoE cutting rates this week and to deliver three more cuts in 2025, while it sees the Bank Rate at 3.25% in 2026.
FX
- Hefty gains for the Dollar index which has seen its largest jump since March 2020 on the Trump trade as the former president is set for another four years in office. Eyes remain on the Congress configuration as the Senate has been called for Republicans whilst the House remains closed and could take days to be called. DXY surged from a 103.35 intraday low to a 105.31 peak this morning; the index has pulled back to current levels of 104.90.
- Sizeable downside for EUR as a function of broader USD strength coupled with the potential ramifications of Trump’s trade agenda on EZ growth. Elsewhere, revisions higher to Final EZ PMI Services and Composite metrics were unsurprisingly overshadowed by the US election. EUR/USD slipped from a 1.0937 intraday high to a low of 1.0704 before coming off worst levels.
- GBP is softer but among the mid-table G10 performers with price action solely driven by the USD strength, with traders now looking ahead to tomorrow’s BoE whereby a 25bps to the Bank Rate is widely expected; attention for that remains on forward guidance, given the net-hawkish budget implications.
- JPY is among the G10 underperformers as the Japanese currency is hit by a surge in US yields, whilst desks also argue the JPY could act as a proxy to Asian FX about to be hit by another trade war. USD/JPY surged from a 151.31 low to a 154.38 intraday peak before stabilising around 154.00.
- Antipodeans are lower intraday but among the “better” G10 performers after suffering during APAC hours. The high-beta statuses cushion losses against the backdrop of a solid “risk-on” session thus far, with surges seen across equities. Antipodeans also look ahead to the Chinese fiscal announcement which was expected to be contingent on the next US President.
- CNH is among the EM FX losers as Trump 2.0 is almost certainly likely to spark trade frictions with China. That being said, Chinese markets eagerly await the touted fiscal stimulus package from the NPC Standing Committee.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0993 vs exp. 7.1011 (prev. 7.1016).
- China’s major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars in the offshore FX market to prevent rapid yuan depreciation, according to Reuters sources.
- Citi has added a short-position on the MXN vs the ZAR, following the US election result.
Fixed Income
- USTs are pressured, with Trump set to return as President with control of the Senate and a projected ~60% chance of having House control as well; though, the House remains far too close to call and as it stands, we may not have an answer for several days or even weeks. The Trump Trade is in full swing for bonds with USTs at a contract low of 109-07, vs a 110-21+ initial high print for the session. However, if this narrative moves to a Trump ex-Congress (i.e. Rep. Senate but a Dem. House) government, then we may see a fading of the steepening in favour of flattening.
- Bunds are bolstered by the Trump victory. The narrative for EGBs is one of a lower yield environment given the potential headwind to Europe from an America-first and tariff-heavy US administration and expected frontloading of monetary stimulus to offset growth headwinds. Bunds off a 132.22 peak to a current 131.82, with the UST-Bund 10yr yield spread having widened to in excess of 200bps vs the 194bps peak on Tuesday. There was little impact following today’s 15- and 30-yr auctions.
- Gilts were initially somewhat unreactive to the election, seemingly caught between the bullish lead from EGBs and bearish one from USTs as the arguments for those moves don’t neatly apply to the UK, which remains focused on its own fiscal issues/implications ahead of Thursday’s BoE.
- Germany sells EUR 0.409bln vs exp. 0.5bln 2.50% 2046 Bund & EUR 0.805bln vs exp. EUR 1bln 2.60% 2041 Bund Auction
Commodities
- A soft session for the crude complex thus far as Trump looks set to win the US presidential race, with a stronger Dollar pressuring the complex alongside Trump’s drilling policies raising the prospect of higher US supply. Brent’Jan currently holds around USD 74.40/bbl.
- Precious metals trade lower across the board with the complex hit by the broader Dollar strength on the Trump trade. XAU/USD fell from USD 2,749.78/oz to a current low of USD 2,701.42/oz.
- Hefty losses across most industrial metals given the prospects of trade wars under Trump 2.0. That being said, the sectors will still be eyeing the NPC Standing Committee’s announcement for fiscal stimulus. 3M LME copper trades towards the bottom of a USD 9,513.00-9,708.00/oz.
- NHC shows that Rafael is now a Hurricane; earlier guidance was for it to intensify into one shortly.
- China will step up efforts to support domestic exploration of Lithium, Cobalt and Nickel resources and bolster national resource security under the plan.
Geopolitics
- “IDF Spokesperson: Warnings were activated in a number of areas in northern and central Israel following launches crossing from Lebanon”, according to N12.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards deputy commander said Tehran does not rule out a US-Israel pre-emptive strike to prevent Iranian retaliation against Israel, via ISNA; said Iran and “resistance front are ready for confrontation”.
- US official said the surprising decision by Israeli PM Netanyahu to fire Defense Minister Gallant is concerning, especially in the middle of two wars and as Israel prepares to defend against a potential attack from Iran, while the official said they have real questions about the reasons for Gallant’s firing and about what is driving the decision, according to Kann’s Stein.
US Event Calendar
- 07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications, prior -0.1%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
It’s been a big night with Mr Trump looking set to become just the second President to serve non-consecutive terms in history, and the first for well over a hundred years, after Grover Cleveland in the late-19th century. So a likely remarkable political comeback after an approval rating in the low 30 percent range when he left office in January 2021.
As we type, the New York Times needle, which is a well respected forecasting gauge has Trump with a 92% chance of victory. Polymarket.com is pricing it at 97%. Of the battleground states, only North Carolina and Georgia have so far been called by the media in favour of Trump with the other 5 with a probability of 64-80% going to Trump. The potential tipping point state of Pennsylvania has a 79% probability.
In terms of Congress, the House will be the key to whether there is a “red sweep”. Here we may not have more clarity until later in the day or even later in the week. The seats have all gone as expected so far which suggests it could be very close. The perception is that the popular vote may be the best proxy for this and here the NYT needle’s estimate suggests Trump is likely to win by 1pp, albeit with a 3pp margin for error on either side. If Trump does win the popular vote it will be the first time in his three election runs. Polymarket has swung a lot in the last hour but the House going Republican is at 64% as I finish typing at 5:45 am.
So it seems the biggest market debate will now be between a Trump red sweep and a Trump divided government where the House stays with the Democrats.
As a reminder, control of the House will be important for policy expectations and markets. While our strategists have seen a Trump victory as positive for the dollar (see here), not least given significant presidential authority on trade policy, congressional control will be important in many areas, especially fiscal policy. Our economists have previously viewed a Republican sweep as having the most upside in terms of fiscal easing (see here), with potential corresponding upside for the Fed terminal rate. Our strategists also saw a red sweep scenario as having the clearest upside for Treasury yields.
The market reaction so far is probably going as you would expect given the results. The 10yr Treasury yield is up +12bps to 4.39%, the dollar index is +1.26% higher, with the euro falling -1.27% against the greenback. That comes after the dollar index fell -0.45% yesterday, starting the week with its worst two-day run (-0.82%) since August. Other Trump trades benefiting include Bitcoin rising +7.26%. S&P (+1.02%) and Nasdaq +(0.84%) futures are both up as I type. Red sweep trades are off their highs with the direction of the House being in a little doubt. One thing to consider is that if there is a split Congress, you could argue that tariff policy becomes the priority assuming Trump wins, as he won’t be able to get his tax policy through without negotiations.
European equity futures are -0.59% lower and European bond futures are a lot flatter than US bonds as markets wake up to the implications of Trump’s likely tariff policies. If the results continue to move in this direction, then the prospects of the ECB being forced to move faster will increase. Nothing happens in isolation though, and there is risk of an early German election given events over the last few days which our economists have discussed here. This could have some implications for fiscal policy. Elsewhere China’s NPC standing committee may announce more clarity on fiscal policy when the meeting ends on Friday. It’s possible they have been waiting for the results of the US election to calibrate things. So lots of moving parts.
In Asia, the Nikkei is outperforming with a gain of +1.87%, and the S&P/ASX 200 is also up by +0.85%. Conversely, the Hang Seng Tech Index is down by -3.03%, followed by the Hang Seng, which has dropped -2.61% and the KOSPI (-0.93%). Mainland Chinese stocks are fairly flat.
Yesterday might feel like ancient history now, but before we knew the direction of likely election result, markets saw a strong risk-on move thanks to an upside surprise in the ISM services index for October. It rose to its highest level since July 2022, coming in at 56.0 (vs. 53.8 expected), and the details were also very positive. For instance, the employment component was back at an expansionary 53.0, marking its highest level since August 2023. And even though there was a modest downtick in new orders to 57.4, it was still the second-strongest print since February 2023.
That release continued the run of positive data surprises from the US recently, and it led investors to pare back their expectations for rate cuts over the months ahead. The rate priced in for the Fed’s December 2025 meeting was up +3.7bps yesterday to 3.66%, taking pricing back to roughly where it was before the summer market turmoil. However, the rise in rates proved fleeting on the long-end of the curve. 10yr Treasury yields ended the day -1.3bps lower at 4.27%, despite trading +8bps intra-day early on, with the reversal helped by a decent 10yr auction. Obviously all this has changed this morning.
Speaking of bonds selling off, yesterday saw UK gilts continue to underperform amidst weak demand at a 10yr auction. That follows last week’s announcement of noticeably higher borrowing in the budget, and it meant the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds widened by another +4.0bps to 211bps. That’s the biggest gap since Liz Truss was still PM back in October 2022, having risen by nearly 50bps since mid-September. In absolute terms, the 10yr gilt yield was up +7.2bps to a one-year high of 4.53%. Elsewhere in Europe, the selloff also saw yields on 10yr bunds (+3.3bps) hit a three-month high of 2.42%.
US equities showed no signs of pre-election jitters, as the S&P 500 (+1.23%) posted its strongest gain since September to close less than 1.5pp from its record high. That was supported by the upbeat data, and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 stood at 2.38% after yesterday’s releases. So there’s little sign that the strong growth of late is easing, which has continued to boost risk assets. The megacap tech stocks led the way, with the Magnificent 7 up +1.76%, with Nvidia (+2.84%) overtaking Apple (+0.64%) as the world’s most valuable company. The tech advance was supported by software platform provider Palantir Technologies (+23.47%) after it reported strong AI-related demand. But the gains were broad-based with all 24 industry groups within the S&P 500 higher on the day and the small-cap Russell 2000 (+1.88%) outperforming. European markets were fairly subdued, and the STOXX 600 was only up +0.06%.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include German factory orders for September, and the final services and composite PMIs for October in the Euro Area. From central banks, we’ll hear from ECB President Lagarde, Vice President de Guindos, and the ECB’s Escriva, Vujcic and Villeroy.
2B) European report.
2C ASIAN REPORT
DXY, US Futures, Yields & Crypto surge on Trump’s lead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 01:34 AM
- US Presidential Election results are indicative of a Trump victory and Republicans taking the Senate; House is too close to call.
- US futures have ripped higher, while European futures have been hit given the potential EZ growth implications.
- DXY is currently up 1.5% and has seen its largest jump since March 2020; EUR, JPY and antipodeans are suffering.
- In the fixed income space, US yields are higher across the curve with the curve bear-steepening.
- Bitcoin is up over 8% after surging to a record high, crude has been hit by the stronger USD.
- Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders, EZ PMIs (Final), NBP Policy Announcement, US Election Results, ECB President Lagarde, de Guindos & BoC’s Rogers, Supply from Germany & US.
- Earnings from Pandora, Novo Nordisk, Banco BPM, Bper Banca, Enel, Poste Italiane, Snam, Vonovia, Commerzbank, Fresenius, Henkel, Puma, Siemens Healthineers, BMW, GEA Group, Evonik Industries, Eurazeo, Arkema, Teleperformance, Credit Agricole, Wise, Persimmon, Marks and Spencer, Beazley, Williams Companies Inc, CVS Health Corp, Gilead Sciences Inc, Sempra, Qualcomm Inc, Johnson Controls International & Arm Holdings.
SNAPSHOT
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US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
- What happened: US Presidential Election results pointed to a very strong showing so far for former President Trump and the Republican party overall as Trump has won the three swing-state battlegrounds that have been called so far (North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Georgia) and was also polling ahead of Harris in Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada showing a clear path for victory for Trump. At pixel time, Trump has 247 electoral college votes vs Harris at 210 (270 needed to win). Furthermore, Polymarket assigns him a 97% chance of winning the election, while the Senate is also flipping and heading to the GOP’s, but, in contrast, the House is still exceedingly close and up for grabs for both sides, and as such it could take days to work out and would be the deciding factor to whether we see a Republican clean sweep or a split Congress.
- Market reaction: With the market now running on the assumption that Donald Trump will win the Presidency and Republicans take the Senate (House is still too close to call), US equity futures have been boosted given his low tax and pro-growth agenda; ES +1.2%, NQ +1.2%, DJIA +1.3%, RTY +2.5%. Given the potential trade ramifications of a Trump Presidency, European equity futures have been sent lower (Eurostoxx 50 -0.9%), whilst in APAC trade the Hang Seng is lower by over 2% and the Nikkei 225 is up around 2.2% (boosted by a softer JPY). In the fixed income space, the Dec’24 UST contract is lower by some 28 ticks at a contract low. US yields are higher across the curve with the curve bear-steepening given the deficit concerns associated with the Trump Agenda. In FX markets, the DXY is currently up 1.5% and has seen its largest jump since March 2020. In terms of its major counterparts, EUR is currently bottom of the G10 leaderboard given the potential trade risk for the Eurozone, whilst China exposure has acted as a drag on AUD and NZD, JPY has also been sent lower given the potential for tighter Fed policy going forward due the potential US inflationary impact of a Trump win. With regards to Fed pricing, expectations for tomorrow’s meeting are unchanged with a 25bps cut still near-enough fully priced, whilst around 3bps of easing has been trimmed for the December meeting. Given Trump’s association with the crypto space, BTC has surged and is up over 8% to a fresh record high. In commodities, crude has been hit by the stronger USD whilst Gold is modestly lower in choppy trade.
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks gained in a risk-on session on US election day with equities rallying and outperformance seen in the Russell while all sectors closed in the green. The advances were led by Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Utilities, while Materials, Energy and Staples were the relative underperformers. Elsewhere, T-notes sold off throughout the European session with lows seen in the wake of the stronger-than-expected ISM Services PMI, however a solid 10-year note auction, as well as further unwinds of Trump trades provided a cushion for T-notes which settled marginally higher with the curve flattening.
- SPX +1.23% at 5,783, NDX +1.32% at 20,227, DJIA +1.02% at 42,222, RUT +1.88% at 2,261.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks mostly followed suit to the risk on performance on Wall St as participants digested the US Presidential Election results where Trump is leading so far and betting markets boosted their pricing of the former President returning to the White House.
- ASX 200 was lifted with outperformance in tech, consumer discretionary and financials leading the gains seen in all sectors.
- Nikkei 225 surged above the 39,000 level with the momentum propelled by a weaker currency.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp lagged with the Hong Kong benchmark the worst hit as tech was pressured amid the increased tariff threat for Chinese companies, while the mainland traded indecisively as prospects of looming fiscal stimulus offset the tariff threat.
- US equity futures extended on the prior day’s gains as election results so far suggested increased prospects of a Trump victory.
- European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.6% after the cash market closed higher by 0.4% on Tuesday.
FX
- DXY rallied amid an early resurgence of the Trump trade after initial results from the election showed Trump in the lead in electoral votes and boosted betting market odds for a Trump victory with Polymarket assigning a 97% probability for him to win a second term.
- EUR/USD suffered as a function of the broad dollar strength which dragged the single currency beneath the 1.0800 level.
- GBP/USD gave back the 1.3000 status with price action solely driven by the election, while both the FOMC and BoE policy decisions are still due this week.
- USD/JPY steadily advanced and briefly climbed north of the 154.00 level owing to the broadly firmer buck and widening of US-Japan yield differentials.
- Antipodeans suffered alongside the selling across the greenback’s counterparts and with pressure on the CNH on the heightened prospects of a Trump 2.0.
- BoC Minutes stated they felt upside pressures on inflation will continue to decline so policy did not need to be restrictive, while they considered the merits of cutting the policy rate by 25bps and there was a strong consensus for taking a larger step. Furthermore, members wanted to convey that a larger step was appropriate given the economic data seen since July.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.0993 vs exp. 7.1011 (prev. 7.1016).
- China’s major state-owned banks were seen selling dollars in the offshore FX market to prevent rapid yuan depreciation, according to Reuters sources.
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures suffered heavy losses as the Trump trade regained momentum and lifted yields across the curve.
- Bund futures saw early resilience but eventually succumbed to the selling pressure in US counterparts and with supply ahead.
- 10yr JGB futures lacked demand amid strength in Japanese stocks and following outdated BoJ September meeting minutes.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were lower amid headwinds from a stronger buck and after the larger-than-expected build in private crude inventory data forced a reversal of some of the prior day’s advances.
- US Private Inventory (bbls): Crude +3.1mln (exp. +1.1mln), Distillate -0.9mln (exp. -1.1mln), Gasoline -0.9mln (exp. -0.9mln), Cushing +1.7mln.
- Saudi Aramco cut December oil prices for Asian buyers with the Arab light crude OSP to Asia set at + USD 1.70/bbl (prev. 2.20) vs Oman/Dubai average and the OSP to NW Europe was set at – USD 0.15/bbl (prev. -0.45) vs ICE Brent settlement, while the OSP to the US was set at + USD 3.80/bbl (prev. +3.90) vs ASCI.
- Iraqi cabinet issued a decision to immediately deliver Kurdish oil to state-run SOMO, according to the state news agency.
- Spot gold was ultimately flat in choppy trade and largely weathered the pressure from a firmer dollar.
- Copper futures declined with the metals complex weighed on by the stronger dollar as participants digested the results so far from the US Presidential Election with betting markets heavily boosting the pricing for a Trump victory.
- Armed rebels were reportedly taking control of key rare-earth mining areas in Myanmar in a development that could disrupt supply chains for EVs and more that pass through China, according to Nikkei.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin rallied to a fresh record high as the results of the election so far suggest a strong Trump performance.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Chinese Premier Li said in a meeting with Malaysia’s PM that the sides should push forward flagship railway and industrial development projects, while he added that both should look into emerging areas and new areas for potential cooperation, according to Xinhua.
- BoJ September meeting minutes stated that members shared the view BoJ will continue to raise interest rates if its economic and price forecasts are met, while members agreed that the BoJ must scrutinize market developments and the overseas economic outlook for the time being as markets remain unstable and many members said BoJ must scrutinise not just market moves but the factors behind their volatility such as US and overseas economic developments. Furthermore, a few members said the BoJ can afford to spend time scrutinising the impact of overseas and market developments on Japan’s economy and prices, while one member said the BoJ should hold off on raising rates until global and market uncertainties diminish and a member also said it is undesirable to change the policy rate level now as financial and economic uncertainties are high, although one member said there could be times when raising rates would be appropriate even when markets are unstable.
DATA RECAP
- Australian AIG Manufacturing Index (Oct) -19.7 (Prev. -33.6)
- Australian AIG Construction Index (Oct) -40.9 (Prev. -19.8)
- New Zealand HLFS Job Growth QQ (Q3) -0.5% vs. Exp. -0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
- New Zealand HLFS Unemployment Rate (Q3) 4.8% vs. Exp. 5.0% (Prev. 4.6%)
- New Zealand HLFS Participation Rate (Q3) 71.2% vs. Exp. 71.5% (Prev. 71.7%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index QQ (Q3) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.9%)
- New Zealand Labour Cost Index YY (Q3) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.4% (Prev. 3.6%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu fired Defence Minister Gallant and appointed Foreign Minister Israel Katz as the new Defence Minister and Gideon Saar as Foreign Minister, according to Axios. It was separately reported that PM Netanyahu intends to dismiss the IDF chief of staff and Shin Bet chief, while he said there have been too many gaps between him and Gallant over the management of Israel’s wars.
- Former Israeli Defence Minister Gallant said in a speech that he was fired because of disagreements over three issues including ultra-Orthodox military conscription, his support for a Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal and his call for a commission of inquiry for the October 7th failures.
- US official said the surprising decision by Israeli PM Netanyahu to fire Defense Minister Gallant is concerning, especially in the middle of two wars and as Israel prepares to defend against a potential attack from Iran, while the official said they have real questions about the reasons for Gallant’s firing and about what is driving the decision, according to Kann’s Stein.
- There was an assessment in the security establishment that Iran may reconsider the nature of its response in light of tonight’s developments in Israel, according to N12 news.
- Iraqi factions announced the targeting of a vital site in Eilat in southern Israel with drones, according to Sky News Arabia.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK think tank NIESR forecasts the BoE cutting rates this week and to deliver three more cuts in 2025, while it sees the Bank Rate at 3.25% in 2026.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
END
3C JAPAN
3D. CHINA
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY/
figures that migrants will figure out how to get cash for a benefits card
(zerohedge)
Far-Left Advocacy Group In Hamburg Shows Migrants How To Get Cash In Benefits-Card-Loophole
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 03:30 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
A left-wing advocacy group in Hamburg is openly teaching asylum seekers how to bypass the recently introduced payment card system, sparking political controversy and exposing a loophole in the system meant to control benefits distribution.
The Hamburg Refugee Council, which opposes the card, has launched a website explaining how asylum seekers can convert their card credit into cash through a voucher exchange system.
The payment card, introduced in November 2023 after an agreement between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and the state prime ministers, was designed to reduce the administrative burden of handling cash benefits for asylum seekers and prevent misuse. The goal was to ensure that aid would be used for essential needs, such as food and hygiene products, rather than cash being spent elsewhere or sent home amid concerns the cash is being used to buy drugs, prostitutes, and other illicit purposes.
Hamburg was the first federal state to implement the card, issuing around 2,500 of them in the first half of 2024.
However, the Hamburg Refugee Council has actively opposed the payment card, launching the “No to payment card” initiative. The group advertises in English and Arabic on its website, offering detailed instructions on how to convert the benefits into cash.
Asylum seekers are advised to buy supermarket vouchers with their cards and exchange them for cash, or to participate in a “shopping tandem” scheme whereby they pay for a willing participant’s groceries with their card and receive cash.
The initiative claims to receive around 300 shopping vouchers monthly, converting them into €15,000 to €20,000 in cash, or roughly €50 per voucher.
According to the Hamburg Refugee Council, around 400 people, referred to as “solidarity shoppers,” participate in this workaround.
A similar scheme was reportedly launched earlier this year by the “Stay Open” alliance in Munich.
The group’s website calls for the legalization of all undocumented migrants and criticizes the mass classification of individuals as “illegal.”
“The introduction of the Hamburg SocialCard is a symbolic political act, which entails serious deterioration for those affected and is intended to continue to normalize hostility,” the website states.
The State Social Court of Hamburg recently upheld the legality of the payment card system, ruling that asylum seekers in reception centers do not require cash, as their basic needs are already covered. Nonetheless, the far-left campaign has vowed to continue until the policy is reversed.
The Greens threatened to pull out of the federal traffic-light coalition earlier this year over plans to expand the benefits card system across the country, warning it was discriminatory.
END
UK
Just How Dystopian Can Starmer’s Britain Become?
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 05:00 AM
Authored by Nick Corbishley via NakedCapitalism.com,
After his landslide election victory in July, Keir Starmer promised that his new Labour government would “tread more lightly” on the lives of voters. It is one of a multitude of pledges Starmer has broken in just his first four months in office, during which time his approval rating has suffered the biggest post-election fall of any British prime minister in the modern era.
It’s worth recalling that his government’s massive parliamentary majority represents just about 20 per cent of the eligible electorate.
As the Middle East Eye journalist John Obourne warned in 2023, “you would be very unwise to believe a word Starmer ever says.”
Last week, he and his Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, broke their pledge that they wouldn’t raise taxes on working people — by raising national insurance contributions for even the lowest-earning workers. The impact will be felt most keenly by small businesses, many of which are already struggling. As Richard Murphy notes on his blog, “Big businesses can afford to pay, but small businesses rarely pay their owners a great deal (contrary to common perceptions), and they will suffer, as will employment prospects for many people who are on lower pay.”
The latest broken promise came yesterday with the announcement of a hike in student tuition fees, from £9,250 to £9,535 a year. It is the first hike in seven years, and it comes after a period of persistent high inflation. Starmer had pledged to abolish tuition fees altogether when he ran for the leadership of the Labour Party in 2020, saying the Labour Party “must stand by its commitment to end the national scandal of spiralling student debt and abolish tuition fees.” Once in power, he did the exact opposite.
And there will be no “treading lightly” on voters, either. On the contrary, as Starmer told delegates at the Labour Party conference in September, under his government, the State would take more “control” in people’s lives. None of this should come as a surprise, of course. The Labour leader’s ruthless purge of the left and pro-Palestine voices in his party as well as his role in the British State’s persecution of Julian Assange were all clear warning signs, wrote Oborne and Richard Sanders, two of the journalists behind Al Jazeera‘s “The Labour Files”, in 2023:
In the Labour party, not only is the right in control, it is brutally pummelling the left into the dirt, determined that it will never again wield so much as a shred of meaningful influence within the Labour movement.
At the start of the first programme in The Labour Files, a Merseyside activist, Paul Davies, posed a question:
“If a small group of secretive people manipulate and control one of the two great parties in Great Britain, what will they do when they have control of MI5? When they have control of all the levers of the state? Are they suddenly going to believe in justice and proper investigations and fairness? Or are they going to be the same as they are now? Or even worse?”
A New, Orwellian Government Office
One of the main ways the British State plans to exert greater control over people’s lives is through the rollout of digital surveillance technologies. As we predicted would happen four months ago, the Starmer government is pushing hard to make digital identity a reality. Last week, as the country’s attention was focused on the government’s first budget announcement, Downing Street quietly launched a new government office to oversee the UK’s digital identity market: the so-called “Office for Digital Identities and Attributes”, or ODIA (which, I suppose, could be pronounced, fittingly, as “oh dear”).
First launched in 2022 by the Rishi Sunak government as an interim governing body for digital IDs, ODIA is now officially part of the Department for Science, Innovation and Technology (DSIT). Its responsibilities will include developing and maintaining the UK Digital Identity and Attributes Trust Framework (DIATF), which outlines standards that digital ID providers must follow, maintaining a register of certified organisations, and issuing a trust mark to identify registered services.
As the industry news site Biometric Update reports, another key task for the new government body will be liaising with international partners to promote interoperability of digital ID platforms among jurisdictions: “Industry experts have noted that the UK is behind other nations in digital ID” — including, first and foremost, the EU and Australia.
But both the UK government and its private-sectors partners are determined to catch up, notes the website Think.Digital Partners, an industry association whose “content partners” include seven UK government departments and tech companies like AWS, Microsoft and Solar Winds:
In a panel discussion on the future of digital wallets and identity strategies, industry leaders outlined both the opportunities and challenges facing the UK as it looks to become a global leader in the rapidly evolving space.
They were speaking at the recent Think Digital Identity and Cybersecurity for Government event in London…
“We’re conflating payments with wallets, but what a wallet will be in the future is likely to be much more than just payments,” explained Jim Small, head of identity at Hippo. “It’ll be a secure repository where we can own our own data, our own information, things like verifiable credentials and decentralised identifiers.”
Small pointed to initiatives around the world, from the US tech giants’ digital wallets to the EU’s eIDAS-based ID schemes, as examples of the diverse approaches being taken. However, he emphasised the need for a more centralised, ecosystem-focused framework to drive widespread adoption…
With regulatory clarity, user-centric design, and a focus on high-value use cases, the experts agreed that the UK can emerge as a global leader in digital identity, transforming how citizens interact with both government and businesses.
This would be a dream come true, not only for the tech companies involved but also for Starmer’s mentor, Tony Blair, who has repeatedly called for the development of a digital identity system in the UK, after trying but failing as prime minister to introduce an identity card system in the country. In his speeches, Blair routinely emphasises how a digital identity will be connected to one’s vaccine status.
“More Dangerous Than You Think”
Digital identity systems may help streamline bureaucracy and reduce fraud, but they are also fraught with risks. As Brett Solomon, the then-executive director of Access Now, warned in a 2018 Wired op-ed titled “Digital IDs Are More Dangerous Than You Think”, digital ID, writ large, “poses one of the gravest risks to human rights of any technology that we have encountered.”
Those risks include massive breeches of personal data, including biometric identifiers; hacks and system outages; function creep as more and more basic services require digital identification; unparalleled government and corporate surveillance; the near-total exclusion of people who don’t have access to mobile devices or the internet as well as those who do but choose not to comply with governments’ increasing demands.
As the WEF itself candidly admitted in a 2018 paper on digital identity, digital ID (emphasis my own) “open up (or close off) the digital world for individuals.” They can also close off vast swathes of the analogue world, too, as tens of millions of Indians have learnt since the rollout of Aadhaar, the world’s largest digital identity program, roughly a decade ago.
On October 1, the Kuwaiti government suspended electronic banking services, including cash withdrawals and payment transfers, for 60,000 people who had failed to submit their biometric data for the country’s e-ID program by the stated deadline. A few weeks later, those still in noncompliance had their electronic bank cards deactivated. Visa, MasterCard, and K-Net all complied with the government’s rules.
Like the EU, Australia, Canada and all the other Western “democracies” that are rolling out digital ID programs, the UK insists that digital identity will not be mandatory. But that’s exactly what India’s government said about its Aadhaar program. Yet as Kiran Jonnalagadda, an Indian digital rights activist, explains in Deccan Herald, enrollment in the program, while optional, “as repeatedly stated everywhere,… has been made mandatory in practice, via both illegal coercion and unconstitutional law, much of which is still being litigated in courts”:
The stated goal of Aadhaar is noble, of giving every individual an identity, but everything about it — the way it was proposed, budgeted, designed and implemented — has been inverted and used as a means to identify an individual for the convenience of the government.
Tip of the Iceberg
The Keir Starmer government is not only accelerating the development of digital identity. In the last four months, it has also:
- Unveiled plans to further expand the use of live facial recognition technology, on the same day that an EU-wide law largely banning real-time surveillance technology came into force;
- Called for the creation of digital health passports for NHS patients, prompting a backlash over concerns about digital privacy and the possible sale of patient data to third-party companies — a policy that Tony Blair and former Conservative Party leader William Hague lobbied for just before the elections.
- Resurrected old Tory plans to grant inspectors at the Department of Work and Pensions increased powers to snoop on claimants’ bank accounts. Big Brother Watch warned that the increased powers could be used to spy on not only the accounts of pensioners and welfare claimants but ALL bank accounts. It was one of 18 NGOs and charities that signed a letter to the government warning that “imposing suspicionless algorithmic surveillance on the entire public has the makings of a Horizon-style scandal – with vulnerable people most likely to bear the brunt when these systems go wrong.”
- Announced plans to pilot a Central Bank Digital Currency by 2025, carrying on Rishi Sunak’s controversial Digital Pound plans, with a “blueprint” expected by Christmas. As we reported last week, the proposal is not just opposed by most members of the British public, according to one of the few public surveys conducted on the matter, but also prominent figures within the City of London.
- Launched a crackdown on lawful speech. After the riots in the summer, the Home Office is planning new non-crime “hate” measures. Again, this was a policy that was eventually dropped by the Tories, out of fears it would curtail free speech, but is now being resurrected by Starmer’s Labour Party.
That is just the tip of the iceberg. According to a recent expose by Matt Taibbi and Paul D Thacker, Starmer and his political circle are waging a war on misinformation far beyond British shores, and their ultimate goal is to destroy Elon Musk’s twitter:
“[I]nternal documents from the Center for Countering Digital Hate — whose founder is British political operative Morgan McSweeney, now advising the Kamala Harris campaign — show the group plans in writing to “kill Musk’s Twitter” while strengthening ties with the Biden/Harris administration and Democrats like Senator Amy Klobuchar, who has introduced multiple bills to regulate online “misinformation.”
The documents obtained by The DisInformation Chronicle and Racket show CCDH’s hyperfocus on Musk — “Kill Musk’s Twitter” is the first item in the template of its monthly agenda notes dating back to the early months of this year.
The Center for Countering Digital Hate is the anti-disinformation activist ally of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party, and a messaging vehicle for Labour’s neoliberal think tank, Labour Together. Both the CCDH and Labour Together were founded by Morgan McSweeney, a Svengali credited with piloting Starmer’s rise to Downing Street, much as Karl Rove is credited with guiding George W. Bush to the White House.
Lastly, while Starmer’s government is trying to massively expand the powers of the State, even beyond what it inherited from the Tories, it is using 0powers it already has — namely its anti-terror laws — to arrest and intimidate pro-Palestinian journalists and activists. As an op-ed in Middle East Eye reports, “protesters with placards with the ‘wrong’ slogans have been arrested and prosecuted, sometimes under anti-terror laws.”
In August, British journalist Richard Medhurst was arrested by anti-terror police as he disembarked from his plane at Heathrow airport. He was held incommunicado for 24 hours and his phone and laptop were confiscated. Since then, a string of activists and journalists have been arrested, including the human rights activist and reporter Sarah Wilkinson; Richard Barnard of Palestine Action; University of Portsmouth academic Amira Abdelhamid; Asa Winstanley, the associate editor of online news publication The Electronic Intifada; and, most recently, retired Jewish professor Haim Bresheeth.
At the same time, Declassified UK has revealed that the Starmer government has ordered 100 spy flights over Gaza to assist Israeli intelligence — equivalent to more than one a day since taking office — while 13 out of Starmer’s 25 cabinet members have received donations from Pro-Israel lobby groups and individuals.
Of course, most of these policies and practices — particularly the crackdowns on protests and free speech — represent a continuation, and at times intensification, of policies and practices already well under way under the Tories.
Since decoupling from the EU, both Tory and now Labour governments have taken the UK in an increasingly authoritarian direction. This is, of course, a generalised trend among ostensibly “liberal democracies” — as broad economic conditions deteriorate and AI-enabled technologies advance, the temptation among governments to exploit these new surveillance and control systems is irresistible while the potential benefits for Big Tech are huge — but the UK is most definitely at its leading edge. Moreover, it is a trend that shows no sign of slowing, let alone stopping, especially given the size of Kier Starmer’s majority parliamentary majority.
end
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THSI TO US;
VALENCIA SPAIN
Valencia .. what a disaster … poor people
| Robert Hryniak | 12:22 PM (8 minutes ago) |  | |
| to | |||
https://youtu.be/VHUNBDJWh1E?si=HAkn7yt1T4XkaU9s
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
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ISRAEL/USA/EDITORIAL
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ISRAEL/SYRIA
Israeli Airstrikes Pummel Syria For A Second Day In A Row
Tuesday, Nov 05, 2024 – 08:50 PM
The last two days have witnessed more Israeli airstrikes carried out on Syria, with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Tuesday issuing rare direct confirmation that it targeted Hezbollah weapons depots in the al-Qusayr area in western Syria, close to the border with Lebanon.
“The IDF says Hezbollah’s armament unit is responsible for storing weapons in Lebanon, and it recently expanded its activities to Syria, storing weapons in al-Qusayr,” Israeli media reports.
And the NY Times writes of the expanding and more frequent nature of the raids, “The Israeli military on Tuesday said its Air Force had struck targets in Syria for the second day in a row, attacks it said were aimed at cutting off the flow of weapons and intelligence between Hezbollah, the armed Lebanese group, and its sponsor, Iran.”
The day prior, on Monday, Syrian state media confirmed Israeli airstrikes south of Damascus. The attack again targeted an area known to attract many Shia religious pilgrims.
SANA indicated that it involved Israeli warplanes hitting “a number of civilian sites south of Damascus, resulting in material losses.” There are regional reports that at least two were left dead and five injured in the Monday attack on the Syrian capital’s suburbs.
This could in part be Israel’s signaling Washington that whichever administration takes the White House, efforts to break up the ‘resistance axis’ of Tehran-Damascus-Hezbollah will continue.
On Sunday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made clear in remarks that regardless of whether a cease-fire deal could be reached related to Lebanon, Israel’s military would remain committed to “cutting Hezbollah’s oxygen line from Iran via Syria.”
We reported previously that just last week Israeli government minister and war cabinet member Gideon Saar threatened Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, warning that he will be “in danger” if his country continues to act as a “conduit” for Lebanese resistance movement Hezbollah.
Saar – who rejoined Benjamin Netanyahu’s government late last month – said during a conference that Tel Aviv “missed an opportunity” to “collapse” Assad’s government, which was “saved” by Iran and Hezbollah.
Syria must not be permitted “under any circumstances to be a conduit for weapons supply from Iran to Hezbollah,” the minister went on to say, adding that “Israel must make clear to Assad that if he chooses to harm Israeli security in this manner, he places his regime in danger.”
Israel “will not agree to Hezbollah’s renewed buildup of power through Syria, and will not agree to the opening of a front against it from Syrian territory,” he said. “Removing Assad from the Iranian axis will have far-reaching consequences for Israel’s security.” Thus even if somehow ceasefire is reached in Lebanon, these regular Israeli attacks on Syria will likely continue.
ISRAEL/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
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ISRAEL/MIDDLE EAST/USA
Game Of Chess: US Prepares Next Move With More B-52s, Warships To Middle East
Tuesday, Nov 05, 2024 – 09:50 PM
It’s been a week since Israeli fighter jets pounded high-value Iranian military sites and assets with missiles and bombs. Iran has since delayed a retaliatory strike on Israel as the US presidential election is just days away, and now the US appears to be bolstering defense capabilities in the Middle East as regional war risks remain elevated.
Pentagon officials confirmed to Fox News on Friday that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has ordered several B-52 Stratofortress bomber aircraft, refueling aircraft, and Navy destroyers to the Middle East.
In a statement to Reuters, Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder said additional military assets will begin arriving in the region in the coming months.
“Should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every measure necessary to defend our people,” Ryder said.
The strategic positioning—think of it as a game of chess—of additional US military assets in the region in the very near term may only suggest broadening war risks after the US election cycle ends. In other words, the Pentagon may finally get serious about Iranian-backed Houthis, other Iranian proxies, and even Tehran, which have sparked chaos in critical maritime chokepoints.
Ryder said Austin’s latest order shows the “US capability to deploy worldwide on short notice to meet evolving national security threats.”
One week ago, the US signaled defense guarantees to the Saudis – in the event Tehran or its proxies attempt to weaponize crude oil by targeting the Kingdom’s Abqaiq refinery (the largest crude oil stabilization plant in the world) with drone swarms or hypersonic missiles.
Austin revealed last month that B-2 stealth bombers targeted underground Houthi weapons storage facilities – indeed, a message to Tehran.
“This was a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified,” Austin said at the time, adding, “The employment of US Air Force B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers demonstrates US global strike capabilities to take action against these targets when necessary, anytime, anywhere.”
On Saturday morning, Iran’s supreme leader threatened Israel and the US with “a crushing response” …
Meanwhile, the geopolitical risk premium in Brent crude oil has all but evaporated.
But will that all change after the US presidential election?
Here are the latest geopolitical bets that can be taken on Polymarkets:
Reuters noted that the additional US bombers and warships being shifted to the region came as the Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group prepared to exit the region.
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ISRAEL/HAMAS/IRAN
Trump’s victory throws diplomatic bombshell into Israel’s multi-front war – analysis
The Trump win could push Hamas to prefer a deal under Biden, believing terms would be better given Trump’s pro-Israeli stances and Qatar ties.
By TOVAH LAZAROFFNOVEMBER 6, 2024 20:02Updated: NOVEMBER 6, 2024 21:22
President-elect Donald Trump’s comeback victory Tuesday weakens diplomatic efforts to end Israel’s multifront wars in the short term and calls into question US long-term support for Israel’s military campaigns against Iran and its proxies.
It’s the equivalent of a diplomatic bombshell, whose chilling effects will be felt almost immediately, and which already seems to freeze such ceasefire efforts.
Trump’s policies on all issues relating to Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran will be diametrically different than his predecessor US President Joe Biden and he will chart a new course.
That knowledge alone creates chaos in a war, in which the US had taken the diplomatic lead in ceasefire initiatives and backed Israel on the diplomatic stage. It has also headed a defensive military coalition that protects Israel from Iranian missile attacks and has supported Israel with military weaponry and supplies.
The Biden administration’s role this week is already not what it was last week. The question now is what can happen in the next three months and what would happen after January 20.
Theoretically, a Trump victory should be a celebratory event for right-wing Israelis and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in particular.Netanyahu was quick to congratulate Trump on X, writing, “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America.“This is a huge victory!” Netanyahu wrote, congratulating Trump who during his first term (2017-2021) was viewed by many Israelis as a true friend of Israel.
Trump’s previous tenure in office
During that tenure in office, Trump moved the US embassy to Jerusalem and recognized it as Israel’s capital. He supported the legality of West Bank settlements and the possibility of Israeli sovereignty over 30% of that territory.Trump exited the Iran deal – which Israel opposed – halted US payments to UNRWA, and withdrew from the UN Human Rights Council.
Most significantly, he crafted the Abraham Accords, a rubric under which Israel has normalized and can normalize ties with its Arab neighbors.Trump during his first term, however, was still beholden to US voters, particularly the evangelicals who support Israel; he is not the same as a second-term president who doesn’t need to worry about reelection.It is unclear what his record would be in this upcoming second term.
Trump’s second term
Trump was also good for Israel in peace time because he is most capable when wielding soft power. He returns to the White House in a time of major wars, including in the Middle East, that could herald a potential Third World War.Even before his win in Tuesday’s election, he had promised to make peace in both the Middle East and Ukraine.IN URGING his supporters to head to the polls, he wrote on X/Twitter, that Harris “and her warmonger Cabinet will invade the Middle East, get millions of Muslims killed, and start World War III. VOTE TRUMP, AND BRING BACK PEACE!”He continued with that theme in his victory speech early Wednesday morning, stating, “We want a strong and powerful military, and ideally we don’t have to use it.“You know, we had no wars for years. We had no wars except when we defeated ISIS. We defeated ISIS in record time. But we had no wars. They said he would start a war. I’m not going to start a war, I’m going to stop wars.”His words open the question as to whether Trump will be good for Israel in wartime, particularly given his reluctance to engage militarily Some think his entry into the geopolitics of Israel’s multifront war, would bring it to an end.
He is expected to pressure Israel to wrap up the Israel-Hamas War and with Hezbollah, while at the same time supporting ceasefire goals that are more likely to favor Israel. This comes precisely at a time when Israel had achieved many of its military goals and is fighting in the absence of ceasefire deals that provide adequate security. Netanyahu and Trump are more likely to be aligned on issues relating to the Day After the war with Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Had Vice President Kamala Harris won, she would have insisted on the link between a Day After plan and a two-state resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. She would also have wanted to see the Palestinian Authority return to Gaza, something that Trump would likely oppose. A Trump White House will also cut tension with Israel over issues critical to Biden over the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, humanitarian issues in Gaza, and Netanyahu’s judicial reform plans. THE BIDEN administration now lacks teeth with which to push Israel into improving the humanitarian situation in Gaza by threatening it with an arms embargo. It’s also presumed that Trump would support Israeli military action against Iran including the bombing of its nuclear faculties. The Iranians themselves have shown that they fear Trump, so it remains possible that his return to the White House could bring a tempering influence on Tehran. Trump would have added legislative support for pro-Israel measures, given that Republicans have control of the Senate and are close to House control.
Trump, however, enters the White House on January 20, after a critical three-month lame-duck period headed by Biden.
The next three months of Biden
The Biden administration now has to negotiate ceasefire deals with opponents who know they can wait out his clock and would want to come to the table soon if they believe he is offering them better terms that may worsen once Trump sits in the Oval Office again. Any deal Biden makes that includes US guarantees of any kind would now be suspect because Trump has a history of pulling out of deals he does not like. Israel would be among those who might prefer to wait for a Trump presidency to make the deal. The frozen hostage deal in particular, could take a hit during those months, particularly given Netanyahu’s insistence that he won’t meet Hamas’s demand that any such agreement must allow for a permanent ceasefire and a full IDF withdrawal. Political support for favoring military goals over a hostage deal was strengthened on Tuesday night when Netanyahu fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, replacing him with Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Gallant had been among those voices who believed that Israel should end the war if it meant getting a deal to free the hostages. The Trump win, however, could push Hamas to prefer a deal under Biden, believing the terms would be better given Trump’s pro-Israeli stances and his strong ties to Qatar. Absent that, Biden will have few pressure levers by which to push forward a deal, particularly with both sides entrenched in their positions. It could, however, have a positive impact on Israel’s direct conflict with Iran, which has now seen two rounds of direct attacks and counterattacks, with Israel bracing for an even harsher Iranian strike. Biden now has more leeway – should he choose to act on it – to take military action against Iran, particularly by striking its nuclear sites. It has already subtly threatened Iran with such a step, by moving B-52 bombers into the region.
A third Iranian strike could push the United States from a defensive to an offensive military stance with respect to the Islamic Republic. Having failed to diplomatically halt a nuclear Iran, Biden could potentially do so militarily, shifting the geopolitics of the Middle East, even before Trump arrives in Washington to set it on a new course.
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ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
Israel should target Beirut’s airport, in retaliation for hit near Ben-Gurion Airport – expert
Cohen emphasized that such an action would clarify to Hezbollah the cost of its attacks and lead to international pressure on Lebanon.
By SHAKED SADEHNOVEMBER 6, 2024 17:44
Israel should take a firm approach toward Lebanon and respond to the hit near Ben-Gurion Airport by targeting Beirut’s airport, Dr. Eddy Cohen, an expert on Middle Eastern affairs, said on Wednesday in conversation with Maariv.
“Israel must shut down the Beirut airport – we have full legitimacy to do so now,” he said, adding, “International airlines see the threat to the area of Ben-Gurion Airport, and it deters them, so we need to respond quickly.
“Hezbollah may continue trying to target the airport, and if we don’t respond, it could disrupt its regular operations. If we strike Beirut and shut down the airport, they [Hezbollah] will be deterred,” he noted.
Cohen emphasized that such an action would clarify to Hezbollah the cost of its attacks and lead to international pressure on Lebanon.
Cohen noted that Donald Trump’s victory in the US elections may grant Israel greater freedom of action in the Middle East, particularly against the Iranian threat.
According to him, Trump adopted a firm approach toward Iran and designated the Houthis as a terrorist organization, while “Biden came in and erased that. The democrats in the US have done harm and sown harm in the Middle East.”
Cohen expressed hope that Trump would return to his tough stance on Iran, reinstate economic sanctions, and even support Israel in action against Iran’s nuclear program.
“Trump was always proactive and took a more aggressive approach toward Iran, and I believe he will reinstate the sanctions and support us if we choose to target the nuclear project.”
Widespread support for Trump in Arab world
Cohen noted that there is widespread support for Trump and his tough approach in the Arab world, especially among Gulf states that fear Iran.
He noted that the Gulf states, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, were pleased that Trump was elected due to their antagony with Iran.
According to him, the Iranians themselves “are very afraid, and he believes they will be cautious in light of Trump’s past tough actions against them.”
Cohen also referred to the internal political situation in Israel, noting that the country’s enemies interpret actions like the dismissal of Defense Minister Yoav Gallant as a sign of weakness.
“Our enemies see it as their achievement that they caused Netanyahu to dismiss Gallant,” Cohen said, emphasizing that such moves could be perceived as an opportunity to intensify attacks against Israel.
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ISRAEL HAMAS/USA
ISRAEL/IRAN/USA/OPINION//MUST VIEW
Does Trump’s win make bombing Iran’s nuclear sites likely? – interview
Former Israeli ambassador to the United States, Micahel Oren, discusses Trump’s victory.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 6, 2024 10:52Updated: NOVEMBER 6, 2024 11:17
Former Israeli ambassador to the United States and founder of the Israel Advocacy Group, Michal Oren, sits down with The Jerusalem Post to discuss what Trump’s victory means for Israel’s future attack plans when Trump takes office in January – and what Biden might do until then.
ISRAEL/IRAN/
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UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA//
Moscow Cautiously Optimistic In First Reaction To Trump Win
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 12:25 PM
Moscow issued a tepid response to Donald Trump’s election win, highlighting that US-Russia relations are still at their lowest point in history, and this would be the case regardless of who is in the White House. But there was also a hint of hope that things could improve under the next Trump administration.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Wednesday as the world woke up to news that Trump will be the next president of the United States reacted by saying ties couldn’t possibly get any worse at this point. “It is still almost impossible to worsen relations – they are at the lowest point in history,” Peskov said.
He was pressed on whether President Vladimir Putin would issue a formal congratulations. Peskov said he’s not aware of any plans to do so, which indicates at least for now, the answer is negative. But he also said “we will see”.
Peskov explained, “Let’s not forget that we are talking about an unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in the war against our state,” according to state media translation. And based on more of his words:
“We have repeatedly said that the US is able to contribute to the end of this conflict. This cannot be done overnight, but… the US is capable of changing the trajectory of its foreign policy. Will this happen, and if so, how … we will see after (the US president’s inauguration in) January.”
But he did note that significant comments could come later after official results are confirmed and Trump formally enters office in January.
But Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova struck a more cautiously optimistic tone, telling state-run Rossia 24 TV channel it was important that Trump “started talking about how America is sick and that the problems of American society need to be addressed” during his victory speech.
Separately Zakharova also wrote on Telegram, “Those who win are the ones who live with love for their own country, not with hatred toward others.” Thus both the aforementioned Kremlin officials indicated a wait and see approach on the part of Moscow.
As usual it was former Russian President and current top national security council official Dmitry Medvedev who issued the most provocative and interesting response, saying: “Trump has one quality that’s useful to us. He absolutely hates spending money on various hangers-on and freeloaders — on foolish allies, pointless charity projects and bloated international organizations.”
“Toxic Banderite Ukraine falls into that same category. The question is how much Trump will be made to contribute to the war. He’s stubborn, but the system is stronger,” Medvedev added.
As for the part of Trump’s speech that Russia appears to be welcoming, he emphasized that he will work to end wars around the world. “I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars,” he stressed. “We had no wars, for four years we had no wars. Except we defeated ISIS,” the next US president said.
Trump also on the campaign trail had blasted Ukraine’s Zelensky as the world’s greatest salesman, and indicated the era of massive handouts to Kiev at American taxpayers’ expense will come to an end.
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
In memory of those who “died suddenly” in the United States and worldwide, October 28-November 4, 2024
Quincy Jones; rocker Richard Andrew (58, C, Underground Lovers); singer Tyka Nelson (Prince’s sister); actress Helena Luke; rapper Nawlage 2k5 (35); TikToker Bella Bradford (24, C); & more
| Mark Crispin MillerNov 6 |
UNITED STATES
Quincy Jones, music titan who worked with everyone from Frank Sinatra to Michael Jackson, dies at 91
November 4, 2024
Quincy Jones, the multitalented music titan whose vast legacy ranged from producing Michael Jackson’s historic “Thriller” album to writing prize-winning film and television scores and collaborating with Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles and hundreds of other recording artists, has died at 91. Jones’ publicist, Arnold Robinson, says he died Sunday night at his home in the Bel Air section of Los Angeles, surrounded by his family. Jones was to have received an honorary Academy Award later this month.
No cause of death reported. Jones was active all this year, according to Wikipedia.
Beloved drummer Richard Andrew dead at 58, cause of death revealed
November 4, 2024
Beloved drummer and Underground Lovers bandmate Richard Andrew has passed away following a battle with metastatic lung cancer. He was 58 years old. Andrew’s family took to his Facebook account to announce the news. “Our beautiful Richard John Andrew died at around 5.25 a.m., this morning. His death, as he was in life, was epic. He left this world, face to face with his wife, Nicolette, as she sang their song ‘Do you Realise’ by The Flaming Lips. We are all heartbroken though relieved that our sweet prince is finally free.” Days before his death, Richard Andrew revealed he had not only married his longtime love Nicolette Powell but had been diagnosed with cancer a few months ago.
Prince’s sister Tyka Nelson dies at 64
November 4, 2024
Tyka Nelson, a Minneapolis singer and Prince’s sister, passed away Monday morning. Her son, President Nelson, confirmed the death but declined to offer details. Tyka was 64. The daughter of John L. Nelson and Mattie Shaw Nelson, she was Prince’s only full sibling. Nelson released four albums between 1988 and 2011 and was planning to have her retirement and farewell concert in June at the Dakota. However, she took ill and the concert — in which she was set to be the emcee and sing a couple of songs — went on without her. “I’m getting older,” Nelson told the Minnesota Star Tribune before her June show. “I really wasn’t a singer. I’m a writer. I just happen to be able to sing. I enjoy singing.” She was writing a memoir at the time of her death.
No cause of death reported.
Former Bollywood actress dies after posting in Facebook: ‘Feeling weird, no clue why’
November 4, 2024
Former Bollywood actress Helena Luke, first wife of Indian actor and producer Mithun Chakraborty, died mysteriously on Sunday in the United States at the age of 68. Actress and dancer Kalpana Iyer broke the news on social media. Luke had also worked for Delta Airlines and lived in America for many years. In her last Facebook post, which has gone viral, she wrote shortly before her death: “Feeling strange. Mixed emotions and no clue why. Discombobulated.”
No cause of death reported.
Delta Air Lines is going to start charging unvaccinated employees $200 per month:
Rapper Nawlage 2k5 dies at 35
November 2, 2024
Rapper and producer Nawlage 2k5, born Aquiles Espinosa, has passed away at 35. Nawlage’s friend, DJ Kid Star, aka Mr. 750, shared the news on Instagram on November 1st. Although no cause of death has been disclosed, Nawlage’s passing has prompted an outpouring of tributes from fans, colleagues, and those who admired his music and dedication.
Sister of Dream Theater drummer Mike Portnoy dies of cancer
October 30, 2024
Dream Theater drummer Mike Portnoy is mourning the death of his sister, Samantha Leone Cattaneo, who passed away on Tuesday, October 29 after a battle with cancer. The 57-year-old musician, who is currently on tour in Europe, shared the news of his sister’s passing in a social media post late on Tuesday: “Tonight in Zagreb, Croatia, was one of the hardest shows I’ve ever had to play,” he wrote. “About 30 minutes before showtime, I received a call from my brother that my loving sister Samantha Leone Cattaneo had just passed away. My sister had been battling cancer all year and the last few days she took a turn for the worse…(She) was always one of DT’s biggest fans…”She wanted so badly to be in London (at the opening show of the tour) but her health had declined so quickly that it was impossible for her to travel.”
No age reported.
TikToker Bella Bradford, 24, succumbs to a rare cancer
November 4, 2024
Forks, Washington – Bella Bradford reflected on the fragility of life in her final message. The TikToker, who previously opened up about being diagnosed with a rare form of cancer in her jaw muscle, announced her own passing in a heartbreaking video posted to her channel Oct. 31. According to the note shared alongside the post, she died on Oct. 15 while surrounded by loved ones. She was only 24 years old.
Miami radio fixture Jammin Johnny Caride passes away at 58
November 4, 2024
Miami personality, DJ, and El Zol 106.7 (WXDJ) Program Director John “Jammin Johnny” Caride has passed away following a cancer battle. Born in South Florida to Cuban parents, Caride launched his radio career in 1986 as a music mixer and host at Power 96. Caride helped bring about the global success of the “Macarena” in the mid-90s.
Beloved Texas news anchor Kris Radcliffe dies unexpectedly
November 1, 2024
Beloved Texas news anchor Kris Radcliffe has unexpectedly died at 51, his news station announced on Wednesday. Lindsay Liepman, his co-anchor at NBC affiliate KCEN 6 News, the Texas TV station where Radcliffe dedicated 22 years of his career, announced his sudden passing during its evening broadcast, shortly after receiving the news. The acclaimed newscaster then transitioned to the evening news anchor position, where he reported on the latest headlines and breaking news for his audience in central Texas.
No cause of death reported.
Ex-Suns and Knicks player Jerrod Mustaf dies at 55
October 29, 2024
The 55-year-old center Jerrod Mustaf, who played in the ACB League for FC Barcelona and Festina Andorra, has passed away. After a stellar collegiate career at Maryland, the Whiteville, North Carolina, native was taken 17th overall in the 1990 draft. Despite his immense potential, he only played four seasons in the NBA.
No cause of death reported.
Former Minnesota Gophers player dies suddenly at 30
October 30, 2024
Bridget (Arens) Schumacher, former player with the University of South Dakota’s Minnesota Gophers, has died unexpectedly at age 30 at a hospital in Yankton, South Dakota.Schumacher, who went by her maiden name Arens while in college, was a standout forward from 2013 to 2017. Her cause of death has not been revealed.
Bodybuilding champion Matt Meinrod dies at 42
October 30, 2024
Matt Meinrod, 42, one of the most popular figures in the bodybuilding industry, has died. His wife, Samantha, shared the heartbreaking news in a Facebook post. “It’s with utter shock & devastation that I share the passing of my husband, Matt Meinrod, on 10/26/24,” she wrote. Since then, friends have been remembering Meinrod in heartfelt social media posts. The noted bodybuilder had a degree in Bachelor of Arts in Sport and Fitness Administration from Florida State University.
No cause of death reported.
37 infants “died suddenly”:
49ers star’s one-year-old daughter tragically dies
October 29, 2024
San Francisco, CA – San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward is grieving the tragic loss of his one-year-old daughter. “We are heartbroken that our beautiful baby girl, Amani Joy passed away on Monday morning,” Ward wrote on social media on October 29. “She was the best blessing we could have asked for, and her joyous spirit made us smile from ear to ear.” In a post dedicated to World Down Syndrome Day, the NFL player opened up about his daughter. “Amani Joy Ward has been the best blessing I could’ve asked for,” he wrote. “I used to think Down Syndrome was a handicap, but now I realize it is just a gift from God…She went from heart surgery to the happiest kid I’ve ever been around…My baby makes me smile from ear to ear every time I see her.” Details surrounding her passing remain private, as Ward and his family navigate this heartbreaking period.
No cause of death reported.
A’Kari Wynter Le’Andrea Johnson, 7 weeks
November 4, 2024
North Charleston, South Carolina – Baby A’Kari Wynter Le’Andrea Johnson, 7 weeks old who transitioned on November 2, 2024.
No cause of death reported.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
USA testing hypersonic nuke missile TONIGHT…Hours after election polls close…Amid growing WWIII fears…maybe the title is hyperbole for all missiles are hypersonic? & it’s not nuclear unless has
an actual nuclear weapon on deck, yet this is nice posturing I think to tell our enemies and globe be careful, do not poke us, do not flex! we actually had missiles that could go 16 K miles (Titan)
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 5 |
‘The purpose of the test was to show the ‘readiness of nuclear US forces’ and provide ‘confidence in the nation’s nuclear deterrence’ amid fears of the growing threat of the outbreak of World War III.’
‘The exercise will see the ICBM travel 4,200 miles from the base to Kwajalein Atoll, a small island in the North Pacific, which will take about 22 minutes.
Alexander MAGA Trump news; fake PCR created non-pandemic is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The weapon can reach speeds over 15,000 miles per hour, allowing it to hit any target worldwide in just 30 minutes after launch.
Moscow sits about 5,900 miles from California, while Beijing is about 6,000 miles away – the two nations deemed a threat to the US.’
We do not wish to use it, but it must be ready and able once we move to use it…this is a good test, election night and all. This is not only a message for Russia and Iran and China and North Korea etc., but for any nation that aggresses against USA using nuclear weapons. Yet we offer prayers always that calmer heads always prevails, and we never ever have to go this route.
SLAY NEWS\
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Rogan & Musk Warn: Diddy-Linked Celebrities All Support Harris, Fear TrumpPodcaster Joe Rogan and X boss Elon Musk have raised the alarm over concerns that several high-profile celebrities linked to Sean “Diddy” Combs have publicly endorsed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris while warning voters not to support President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Bernie Sanders: If Trump Wins, the ‘Global Climate Change’ Agenda ‘Is Over’Far-left Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT) has warned voters that the globalist narrative on “climate change” will be “over” if President Donald Trump wins re-election.READ MORE |
| Trump Raises Alarm Over Latest Jobs Report: Biden-Harris Economy Is a ‘Disaster’President Donald Trump has issued a warning to the American people after reviewing the latest U.S. jobs report.READ MORE |
| Viral Star Oliver Anthony Quits Music Industry to Start ‘Traveling Ministry’Oliver Anthony, the musician whose song “Rich Men North of Richmond” went viral last year, has quit the music industry.READ MORE |
| Top Democrat Jamie Raskin Floats Refusing to Certify Presidential Election Results If Trump WinsDemocrats have spent the last four years demonizing President Donald Trump and his supporters as so-called “election deniers.”READ MORE |
| Colorado’s Leaked Voting Machine Passwords Were Publicly Available for MONTHS, Democrat AdmitsA top Democrat official has made a shocking admission about the recently discovered Colorado voting machine password leak.READ MORE |
| Watergate Journalist Bob Woodward Predicts Biden Will Pardon Son Hunter Before Leaving OfficeBob Woodward, the famous Watergate journalist who now writes for the Washington Post, has predicted that President Joe Biden will pardon his son Hunter before leaving office in January.READ MORE |
| Elon Musk: Kamala Harris Will ‘Sic the DOJ’ to Shut X Down, Censor Americans If She WinsX boss Elon Musk has issued a warning to the American people about the threat that Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris poses to their freedom of speech rights.READ MORE |
| Joe Rogan Endorses Trump on Eve of ElectionThe world’s number one podcaster Joe Rogan has declared his endorsement of President Donald Trump on the eve of Election Day.READ MORE |
| Team Trump Goes Viral by Exposing Kamala Harris’ Anti-Christian Agenda: ‘How Dare We Speak Merry Christmas’President Donald Trump’s campaign has gone viral by posting a flashback video to highlight Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris’s anti-Christian agenda.READ MORE |
| Biden-Harris Admin Blocks Efforts to Stop Non-Citizens Illegally Voting in Several StatesIn a desperate effort to tip the balance in the Democrats’ favor, the Biden-Harris administration is blocking efforts to stop non-citizens from illegally voting in Tuesday’s critical presidential election.READ MORE |
| Leaked Medical Report Confirms Olympic Gold Medal-Winning ‘Female’ Boxer Imane Khelif Is MaleImane Khelif, the controversial Algerian boxer who won a gold medal in female boxing at this year’s Paris Olympics, has been confirmed to be male by a leaked medical report.READ MORE |
| Michael Moore Predicts Kamala Harris Victory: ‘Trump Is Toast’Leftist filmmaker Michael Moore is confidently predicting that Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris will “absolutely” win Tuesday’s critical election.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| Trump Wins Election in ‘Greatest Comeback in American History’President Donald Trump has soared to victory in the 2024 election with a landslide win over Kamala Harris.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Swing State’s Biggest City Has to Recount 31,000 Votes, ‘Wildly Extending’ Result TimesMilwaukee has to recount around 31,000 absentee ballots after a “sealing error” may have led to an insecure counting process, city spokesman Jeff Fleming told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on Tuesday night.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Jim Justice Wins, Flips Joe Manchin’s Senate Seat to GOPPopular Gov. Jim Justice (R) rolled to an easy victory to pick up retiring Sen. Joe Manchin’s (I) seat in West Virginia, marking the first time Republicans have won the seat since the 1950s.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| BIG President Trump Wins Swing State of GeorgiaPresident Trump has just been projected to win the swing state of Georgia, which is a big deal:READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Liberals Melt Down After Florida Voters Reject Abortion Rights AmendmentLiberal social media commenters and left-wing members of the media slammed Florida voters and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis for rejecting an amendment that would have created a constitutional right to abortion, describing its failure as “openly fascist.”READ THE FULL REPORT |
EVOL NEWS
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
BRICS MEETING
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0697 UP 0.02371
USA/ YEN 154.35 UP 2.912 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2860 DOWN 0.01813
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3945 UP 0.01101 (CDN DOLLAR UP 19 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 3.18 PTS OR 0.09%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 468.59 PTS OR 2.33%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.81%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: MOSTLY ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: MOSTLY ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 468/59 PTS OR 2.33%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 3.18 PTS OR 0.09%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .68%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 1005.77 PTS OR 2.61%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2663.95
silver:$30.97
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 105.28 UP 190 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
WEDNESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing WEDNESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.899% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +0.980% UP 5 AND 8/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.152 UP 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.730 UP 8 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4095 UP 1 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : WEDNESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0717 DOWN .02171 OR 217 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.23 UP 2.796 OR YEN IS DOWN 280 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.625 UP 8 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .01036 OR 104 BASIS pts to 1.3938
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.1789 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.1745)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.24 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +0.980
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 19 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.482% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.641 UP 19 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.2914 UP 9 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2664.25
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.09
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 5.71 PTS OR 0.07%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 216.96 OR 1.13%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 37.54 PTS OR 0.51%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 343.90 OR 2.50%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 531.34 OR 1.54%
WTI Oil price 71.14 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 74.70 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 98.22 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 42/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4025 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.625 UP 9 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.367 UP 12 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.159 UP 7
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0750 DOWN 0.01978 OR 198 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2897 DOWN 0.01453 OR 145 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5910 UP 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 0.980
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.46 UP 3.032 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3936 UP 0.01016 CDN dollar UP 102 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 71.83
Brent OIL: 75.16
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 14 BASIS pts to 4,431
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 16 BASIS PTS to 4.609%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 6 PTS AT 4.266
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.235 UP 9 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.136 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 104.45 DOWN 45 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.30 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 97.79 UP 1 AND 60/100 roubles
GOLD 2,741,70 3:30 PM
SILVER: 32.60 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 1,508.05 PTS OR 3.57%
NASDAQ UP 553.88 PTS OR 2.274%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.45 DOWN 4.04 PTS OR 19.72%
GLD: $245.70 DOWN 7.70 OR 3.04%
SLV/ $8.43 DOWN 1.32 OR 0.44%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: UP 244.01 PTS OR 1.00%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
‘Trump-Quake’ Sparks Market Euphoria; Gold Dips As Dollar Rips
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Where to start?
The ‘Trump Trade’ in stocks was a big winner…
Source: Bloomberg
Other Election Themes exploded (or imploded) on the day with ‘Deregulation Gainers’ winning and ‘Renewables’ and ‘Tariff Risks’ losing…
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, all the majors were up bigly on the day led by a massive short-squeeze in Small Caps (up almost 6%). A little profit-taking at the cash-open was quickly met with BTFD algos…
Mega-Cap tech soared back near record highs…
Source: Bloomberg
TSLA shares soared 15% to their highest since July 2023
DJT is also up bigly after a lot of noise in the last few days…
And Most Shorted stocks exploded higher…
Source: Bloomberg
With ‘some’ of the uncertainty over (FOMC tomorrow), VIX was clubbed like a baby seal today…
Source: Bloomberg
Crypto loves Trump and Bitcoin exploded to a new record high of $76000…
Source: Bloomberg
…next stop $100k-plus?
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum also soared back above $2700, but relative to Bitcoin remains a majoir laggard having erased the DeFi boom gains…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields soared on the Trump victory with the long-end lagging notably (30Y +17bps, 2Y +9bps) pushing everything higher on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
UST Yields are now back at their highest since early July…
Source: Bloomberg
Inflation Breakevens smashed higher on Trump’s win – 2Y BEs at their highest since April…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations plunged with 2025 now pricing in just 57bps of cuts!!! The aggregate rate cut expectation from now until the end of the 2025 is less than 100bps (less than 4x25bp cuts)…
Source: Bloomberg
Tomorrow’s 25bps rate-cut appears to be a lock (95% odds implied by the market)… but after that who knows?
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar exploded higher, hitting 12-month highs at its peak overnight. This was the dollar’s biggest daily gain since Feb 2023..
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar strength was just too much for gold to handle and it was monkeyhammered lower. This was Gold’s worst day since June and pushed it down to test the 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
Despite the ‘drill, baby, drill’ fears of supply, crude prices ended higher on the day (economic growth) with WTI back above $72…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, after the Biden exit and Harris endorsement, Goldman’s Republican policy pair (GSP24REP) underperformed by ~-7% until October 1st and attempted to recover after the VP debate. While today’s move is in line with expectations, Goldman’s trading desk expects further upside in their Republican Policy Pair (GSP24REP) through inauguration day…
Source: Bloomberg
Trade Accordingly.
MORNING TRADING
AFTERNOON TRADING///
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS\\
Trump Wins, Sends ‘Trumpquake’ Through Washington
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 06:20 AM
* * *
Election Coverage:
* * *Congressional results
Update (Wednesday 0643ET):
Goldman’s chief economist Jan Hatzius provided clients, shortly after the official call by AP on a Trump win, the six main points of what this means in the political game in Washington, the economy, and markets:
- Media outlets have called the presidential election for Donald Trump, who looks likely to win 312 electoral votes. In the Senate, two Democratic-held seats (Ohio and West Virginia) have flipped to Republicans, giving Republicans the majority. The Republican candidate for the Democratic-held Montana seat holds a wide lead but with little vote reported so far, and Republican candidates lead narrowly in four additional Democratic-held seats (Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). This likely gives Republicans at least 52 seats in the Senate, with a potential of 56 seats if margins in uncalled races hold.
- In the House, the outlook is still unclear but leans Republican. Thus far, media outlets have called two seats that have flipped, one Democratic-held and one Republican-held. A number of additional competitive seats have very narrow margins but have not yet been called. As the partial results stood at 2am ET on Nov. 6, the House margin looks likely to be very similar to the current 221R-214D composition (excluding vacancies), with the potential for small Democratic net gains but potentially not quite enough to take the majority. Prediction markets currently put the odds of a Republican sweep at around 90%. With many potentially decisive races in California where the vote could take several days to count, the House outcome might not become entirely clear until later this week or, possibly, next week.
- If Republicans win a narrow majority in the House, this would allow for full extension of the 2017 tax cuts that expire at the end of 2025, likely including reinstatement of some expired business investment incentives. We expect that congressional Republicans would support modest additional tax cuts to accommodate some of Trump’s campaign proposals, but expect these proposals would be scaled down and would cut taxes by a few tenths of a percent of GDP, primarily focused on individual income taxes (not corporate). In a Republican sweep, we would also expect federal spending growth to rise somewhat, particularly on defense. While a larger Senate margin (e.g. 55 or 56 seats) could result in greater Republican support for spending cuts in other parts of the budget (i.e., “mandatory” spending on benefit programs), the thin margin in the House might nevertheless pose an obstacle to such plans. By contrast, in the less likely scenario that Democrats win a very slim House majority, we would expect somewhat greater fiscal restraint as the modest net tax cuts we expect under a Republican sweep would be unlikely, and some of the upper-income tax cuts would be more likely to expire at the end of 2025.
- On tariffs, we would expect Trump to impose tariffs on imports from China that average an additional 20pp. While the 10-20% across-the-board tariff that Trump has proposed is not our base case, we believe it is very possible (40% chance) that such a tariff will be implemented. We expect auto tariffs to come into focus and we assume tariffs on auto imports from the EU, though this could be applied more broadly. We estimate that this combination of tariff policies would provide a one-time boost to core PCE inflation that peaks at 30-40bp and a modest drag on GDP.
- On immigration, we expect an incoming Trump administration will reduce immigration to around 750k/year, slightly below the 1mn pre-pandemic trend. In the event that Democrats manage to win a narrow House majority, we would expect immigration to decline less, to a pace around 1.25mn/yr. The difference arises from the greater enforcement funding a Republican-controlled Congress would likely approve that would be unlikely in a divided government scenario.
- On regulation, an incoming Trump administration would likely take a lighter-touch approach, particularly with regard to energy, financial, and labor policies. By contrast, while some aspects of antitrust policy might ease slightly, we would expect scrutiny of the tech sector to continue.
Twitter.com/AP/status/1854111190273642830?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1854111190
END
SEATTLE
Antifa Returns On Election Night, Causing Chaos In Downtown Seattle
Tuesday, Nov 05, 2024 – 11:45 PM
The potential return of former President Trump to the White House appears to have sparked rage among far-left activists on Tuesday night. With Trump currently leading the electoral count at 214 votes to Harris’s 179, reports are surfacing from Seattle that show Antifa activists have mobilized.
Ahead of the elections, National Guard troops were activated in Alabama, Arizona, Delaware, Hawaii, Iowa, Illinois, North Carolina, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, Wisconsin, and West Virginia. Guardsmen in Colorado, Florida, Nevada, and Washington, D.C., are on standby.
Earlier this week…
*Developing..
END
.Trump Wins, “Move To Canada” Searches Spike, Liberals Meltdown Online
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 09:15 AM
Google searches for “Move to Canada” surged overnight, almost in parallel with Trump’s rising election odds, as the historic election swung key battleground states in his favor. Internet searches related to leaving the country continued climbing in the early morning hours, predominantly from liberal-leaning states.
Most of the “Move to Canada” searches on Google came from states like Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Minnesota, and Oregon.
Some far-left voters faced a mental health crisis overnight…
Many of these folks have adopted a “woke” ideology that resembles a religion—and when Fox News called the ‘win’ for Trump in the early morning hours—it felt like their entire universe imploded.
Far-left radicals mobilized on city streets in the overnight hours.
The problem for the “woke mind virus” crowd is that their entire religion has been upended by a Trump win. Antifa violence overnight in Seattle may only suggest more far-left crazies will mobilize as reality sets in
END
a must read: how Trump want the election. Basically it was Pennsylvania and here the Republicans got the Amish to vote for Trump. They never vote but this time they have had enough of government interfering with their business. Also the Polish voted en masse for Trump.
(Korybko/Substack)
How America Became Unburdened By What Has Been
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 10:45 AM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via Substack,
Trump just beat Kamala despite the formidable odds that were against him.
He survived two assassination attempts, withstood the government’s lawfare, and is on track to secure the popular vote even though the legacy media was fully in support of his opponent.
Speaking of her, she’s infamous for repeating her phrase about America becoming “unburdened by what has been”, which means moving past the Trump era.
Ironically, the country just moved past her, and here’s how it happened:
1. “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”
Democrat consultant James Carville famously coined the abovementioned phrase in reference to the most important electoral issue for most Americans. It still rings true to this day since the majority of the country is worse off after four years of the Biden-Harris Administration than it was after Trump’s first term. It doesn’t matter what the reasons for that are since such developments strongly work against incumbents. Americans accordingly voted to bring back the golden economy that Trump ushered in.
2. Immigration, Both Legal & Illegal, Is Out Of Control
Immigration is always a hot button issue, but it was even more so during this election due to the unprecedented influx of illegal immigrants that invaded the country under Biden and viral reports of legal Haitian immigrants brought in by the government eating people’s pets in Ohio. Trump pledged to crack down on the illegal component and more properly vet those who come into the country via legal channels to ensure that they’ll assimilate and integrate. This approach is wildly popular with Americans.
3. Folks Are Afraid Of World War III
Americans have never been as afraid of World War III as they are now. The NATO-Russian proxy war in Ukraine and the back-and-forth Israeli-Iranian strikes, each of which have the potential to spiral into the apocalypse in the worst-case scenario, were unthinkable under Trump. He promised to do his utmost to bring peace to Europe and the Mideast if he’s re-elected while Kamala promised more of the same policies that brought the world to the brink of war. A vote for Trump therefore became a vote for peace.
4. The Media’s Smears Against Trump No Longer Work
The past eight and a half years of the legacy media’s smears against Trump no longer have the effect that they used to in manipulating voters’ perceptions of him and have even become counterproductive. The more that they accuse Trump of being a “Nazi” or whatever else, the less that people care. Their celebrity surrogates are just as bad, and some like Mark Cuban dealt a powerful blow to their cause by viciously attacking Trump’s female supporters in what can be seen as this year’s “October Surprise”.
5. Musk Restored Freedom Of Speech Online
The preceding points are all important, but they wouldn’t have led to Trump’s victory had Elon Musk not restored freedom of speech online by buying Twitter. Americans were then able to share news about the election without fear of censorship, which showed them that they weren’t alone in questioning the Biden Administration and legacy media’s false claims. Those two were also debunked in real time. Had it not been for Musk, then their lies would have proliferated unchallenged, likely reshaping the election.
6. Musk, RFK, & Tulsi Made It Cool To Defect From The Democrats
Musk, RFK, and Tulsi Gabbard are former Democrats who defected from the party in protest of what it’d become, namely a radical liberal–globalist ideological movement that totally severed its perceived roots with the working class. They all eventually rallied behind Trump, which made it cool for other Democrats to defect from the party too and helped win him some of the Independent vote that took him over the edge in key swing states. He couldn’t have won had it not been for this unity coalition.
7. The Amish & Poles Helped Trump Pull Ahead In Pennsylvania
The Keystone State became the key to Trump’s victory this time around, and he has the Amish and Poles to thank for that. Scott Presler, the one-time chairman of Gays for Trump, played an indispensable role in mobilizing the first while the Posobiec Brothers (popular conservative commentator Jack and his brother Kevin) recruited their fellow co-ethnics from the second in their home state. The combination of these two, both groups and activists, guaranteed Trump’s victory there.
8. The Republicans’ GOTV Campaign Made All The Difference
The Republicans were determined to make Trump’s lead “too big to rig” after being convinced that he was defrauded out of his rightful second term during the last election. To that end, they embraced early voting and harvested ballots as enthusiastically as their Democrat rivals did four years ago, knowing that literally every vote counts and not wanting to miss a single one. This made all the difference by preemptively averting speculative scenarios by which Trump could have been defrauded yet again.
9. Abortion Is No Longer An Issue In Presidential Elections
The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade in mid-2022 made abortion a states’ rights issue, which took the wind out of its former sails as a federal one and thus made it much more difficult for the Democrats to turn women against Republican presidential candidates like before. Try as they did, they couldn’t pull it off anymore, and this helped Trump come out ahead. The party relied on abortion for so long that they don’t know what to do now that it’s no longer relevant at the presidential level.
10. Walz Was One Of The Worst VP Picks Imaginable
Kamala might have had a chance if she picked Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate instead of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, but the former is Jewish and has ties to the IDF, so she feared that she’d lose the Midwest’s Muslim vote if she chose him. That was a mistake since Walz was one of the worst VP picks imaginable and JD Vance made mincemeat out of him during their debate. Most Americans didn’t want Walz one heartbeat away from the presidency after that.
* * *
Trump’s political comeback story is one for the history books after the seemingly insurmountable odds that he overcame.
A mix of masterful campaigning, Musk’s purchase of Twitter, and arguably a stroke of divine providence over the summer came together to make this possible.
America is now truly unburdened by what has been after decisively rejecting the past four years in full defiance of the Democrats.
It’s now up to Trump to deliver on his ultimate promise to “Make America Great Again”
end
Media Beside Themselves Over Trump Victory, Zelenskyy Talks ‘Peace’ In Ukraine
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 11:45 AM
After Donald Trump’s historic comeback last night, the ‘vibes’ coming from the left are a mixture of somber resignation and disbelief.
At this point, Trump has won the presidency and Republicans have kept the Senate. Meanwhile, the House remains too close to call – however Republicans have picked up two seats from the Democrats. According to Decision Desk HQ, the odds of a sweep stand at 79.4%.
Vice President Kamala Harris is set to deliver her concession speech around 4pm ET (with a teleprompter, and perhaps a new accent).
Meanwhile, we can’t reiterate this enough – we have questions:
The media has gone from ‘Hitler!’ to humbled – though we know that’s temporary.
MSNBC‘s Joe Scarborough was baffled, saying “This is the biggest red wave I’ve seen since Ronald Reagan’s 49-state victory in 1984.”
Oh, and Hispanic men are apparently misogynists:
CNN’s Jake Tapper was shocked that Kamala Harris did not outperform Joe Biden in a single county (though in fact CNN’s John King pressed the wrong button that showed state-wide results, however Harris still only outperformed Biden in a few counties):
NBC News is now blaming Biden for not dropping out sooner:
Fake News Matt Drudge is having a bad day…
Cuban took the high road:
Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskyy gave off broke college student vibes, writing to ‘dad’:
Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory!
I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.
I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.
We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership. We rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.
We are interested in developing mutually beneficial political and economic cooperation that will benefit both of our nations. Ukraine, as one of Europe’s strongest military powers, is committed to ensuring long-term peace and security in Europe and the Transatlantic community with the support of our allies.
I am looking forward to personally congratulating President Trump and discussing ways to strengthen Ukraine’s strategic partnership with the United States.
Then there was this bitch-ass bitch, UK MP David Lammy, who vowed to be “out protesting in the streets” in 2017 over Trump.
Meanwhile, Ann Selzer – who predicted an Iowa blowout for Harris, just self-immolated:
We’ll give the last word to Dank Brandon (via @midnightmitch):
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
end
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
KING REPORT
The King Report November 6, 2024 Issue 7364Independent View of the NewsTrump trades were up sharply on Tuesday night. As of 19:37 ET: DJT 44.10 (33.94 close), TSLA 265 (251.44 close), Bitcoin +1741; USZs -26/32; ESZs +32.75. By 20:10 ET, DJT and TSLA lost most of their rallies. DJT reported a Q3 net loss of $119.2m; and saner angels realized that DJT can’t be involved with Trump Media and DJT vowed to squash the EV mandate.
Near 22:40, Bitcoin was +5057; USZs were –2 18/32; the 10-yr hit 4.465%; the ¥/$ was -1.5%; the Dollar Index hit its highest level since July; Polymarket had DJT at 90% to win; ESZs were +78.50; NQZs were +246.75 and the PBoC sold $$ to halt the yuan tumble.
@CoClarified: Jill wore all red to vote. As the wife of a democrat politician there’s no way she doesn’t know how this looks. Biden and Jill are pissed.
@EricLDaugh: NEW YORK TIMES final estimates, 10:15PM ET
WI: Trump+1; NV: Trump+1.6; MI: Trump+1.8; PA: Trump+1.9; GA: Trump+2.6; NC: Trump+3.3; AZ: Trump+4.1 (And Trump to win the popular vote by 0.8%)
Exit polls show Trump more than doubled his support among black men and garnered 45% of the Hispanic/Latino vote, which is a record amount for a GOP candidate.
The GOP held their 3 vulnerable Senate seats (Cruz, TX; Ricketts, NE, and Scott, FL). The GOP picked up the West Virgina Senate seat and looks likely to add several more seats to gain control of the Senate.
Fox’s @PhilipWegmann 11:03 PM ET: Email from Jen O’Malley Dillon (Harris campaign mgr) sent out just now to all hands on Harris campaign: “get some sleep, and get ready to close out strong tomorrow.”
As we explained in yesterday’s missive, Team Obama-Harris-MSM on Friday commenced an 11th hour gaslighting operation that tried to convince Americans that Harris was surging in the polls and had ‘mo.’
Remember that ‘gold standard’ Iowa poll by Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register that moved betting markets after it was released on Saturday. It had Harris +3. But as we noted, its sample was D+3 when the GOP had a 10.4 voter registration advantage. With 73% of the Iowa vote counted, it’s DJT +14.0!
Some traders got snookered by a few polls that oversampled Dems and/or women and/or college-educated and or urban areas. Stocks sagged on Monday; Bitcoin declined sharply. Jim Cramer opined that the market sees a Harris victory.
Yesterday, Bitcoin and DJT’s victory odds surged in early US trading. At 11:35 ET, Bitcoin was +5.1%.
@kylenabecker: “The math doesn’t work. The Democrats are down 1.7 million early votes in the battleground states in urban areas.” “They are down 1.4 million votes in the battleground states among women voters.” “Rural voters have overperformed early by 300,000.” “Democrats have to win their races early. Republicans generally win them on election day.” “The margins don’t add up right now for the Democrats in any of these battleground states,” @marc_lotter said…
https://x.com/kylenabecker/status/1853742847997997495
Trump Media shares soar 14% on Election Day as traders bet on White House win https://trib.al/No3DvMc
@elonmusk on Tuesday morning: The cavalry has arrived. Men are voting in record numbers. They now realize everything is at stake.
Google admits Trump, Harris search discrepancy, says ‘fix is coming’ https://trib.al/nWlT7tv
Google has acknowledged an issue that users have been flagging in which searches for “Where can I vote for Harris” produce an interactive map tool to find polling places, despite not doing the same for inquiries of “Where can I vote for Trump.”
@NewsFromGoogle 2:38 PM: Update: This is now fixed. (With only a few hours remaining to vote!)
Reports circulated early yesterday that there were long lines of mostly men waiting to vote in non-urban areas. Other reports had no lines and low turnout at Alexandria and Fairfax counties in Virgina (Dem bastions). Liberal hosts on morning talk shows were in meltdown and denial modes.
Oct US ISM Services 56, prior 54.9, 53.8 expected; highest reading since July 2022 (cut another 50!)
Prices Index 58.1, prior 59.4, 58 expected; Employment 53, prior 48.1, 58.1 expected; New Orders 57.4, prior 59.4, 58 expected. Full report at: https://t.co/RroxtcULre
Nvidia, +2.6% at midday, led a robust Fang rally.
ESZs traded modestly higher when Nikkei trading began but quickly turned negative. ESZs made a daily low of 5735.00 at 20:34 ET. After a moderate spurt higher at 20:44 ET, ESZs then went inert until they moved modestly higher after the 2 ET Chinese close. ESZs then traded sideways, in a 14-handle range until they soared on the NYSE opening.
ESZs hit a daily high of 5811.00 at 12:47 ET. They then traded in a 19-handle range until they hit a new daily high of 5815.00 at the NYSE close.
Facebook, Nvidia ask US Supreme Court to spare them from securities fraud suits
At issue is whether Facebook broke the law when it failed to detail the prior data breach in subsequent business-risk disclosures, and instead portrayed the risk of such incidents as purely hypothetical…
The Supreme Court on Nov. 13 is due to hear arguments in Nvidia’s bid to scuttle a securities class action accusing the Santa Clara, California-based company of misleading investors about how much of its sales went to the volatile cryptocurrency industry…
https://www.reuters.com/legal/facebook-nvidia-ask-us-supreme-court-spare-them-securities-fraud-suits-2024-11-04/
Iconic entrepreneur Bernie Marcus, who co-founded Home Depot, dies at age 95
https://justthenews.com/nation/economy/iconic-entrepreneur-bernie-marcus-who-co-founded-home-depot-dies-age-95
Positive aspects of previous session
Stocks rallied sharply; Fangs soared on Nvidia’s 2.85% jump.
After an early drop, USZs soared 1 7/32 from low after a good 10-yr $42B auction (4.347%, 4.35% WI)
Negative aspects of previous session
Gasoline and oil soared for the 2nd straight day; USZs were -17/32 at 11:42 ET.
Precious metals rallied moderately.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session
What will the Fed and Powell do and say now?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5762.77
Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5783.44; 5722.10
Fox: Early votes top 81M in 2024 election (No excuse to not have results in by Tuesday night)
Widespread voting problems have been reported in 2 heavily Republican Pennsylvania counties. https://trib.al/QpHhvmU
No matter the final vote, this election’s biggest loser may be the legacy news media
An informed electorate? Flubs, blatant bias and tantrums have created huge distrust among American voters in an industry once indispensable to election coverage and voters’ decision making.
https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/no-matter-final-vote-elections-biggest-loser-may-be-legacy-news-media
Georgetown U. provides ‘self-care suites’ for coddled students stressed about Election Day — complete with milk and cookies and coloring books (Who would hire them?) https://trib.al/PY4Yz0E
Netanyahu fired Israel Defense Minister Gallant and replaced him with foreign minister Israel Katz.
Axios: By firing Gallant, who was independent and challenged the Prime Minister’s policies regarding the war many times, Netanyahu will now have tighter control over national security decision making. Gallant was the most trusted partner in the Israeli government for the Biden administration…
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/05/israel-netanyahu-fires-defense-minister-gallant
Perhaps Bibi read the US election tea leaves and jettisoned Team Obama-Biden’s guy.
Israeli PM Netanyahu considering firing IDF, Shin Bet chiefs as well, sources say – Haaretz
(Bibi debunked this report, stating the reports are “meant to sow division.”)
After the close, beleaguered Super Micro Computer reported EPS of .73, .75 expected; Sales of $6.0B, below estimates of $6.4B. SCMI plunged 12% in after-hour trading. This could weigh on NVDA.
Today is Fed Day. At one time, The Street and bulls expected and demanded a 50bp rate cut from this meeting. Now, The Street and bulls are hoping for a 25bp rate cut. Normally, the FOMC Minutes and Powell’s remarks would have significant impact and implications. However, if Trump wins, forward rate guidance will be worthless; Powell is likely to be demoted; and a new Fed chief (Judy Shelton, Kevin Warsh, and Fed Gov Michelle Bowman are probable candidates) will be installed.
After Reagan’s win in 1980, stocks surged on the ensuing Wednesday but then retreated on Thursday and Friday because the market expected Reagan to win. Stocks then surged for a week and a half.
When Trump won in 2016, stocks rallied without a significant retreat until mid-December because the market did NOT expect that DJT would win.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5707; 100-day MA: 5599; 150-day MA: 5467; 200-day MA: 5368
DJIA 50-day MA: 41,970; 100-day MA: 40,924; 150-day MA: 40,193; 200-day MA: 39,851
(Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5882.85 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames
Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5112.80 triggers a sell signal
Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5509.91 triggers a sell signal
Daily: Trender and MACD are negative – a close above 5846.25 triggers a buy signal
Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 5727.87 triggers a sell signal
@FeserEdward: Siding with DeSantis over Trump, Florida voters preserved the six-week abortion ban and rejected legalized recreational marijuana. This is a small but hopeful sign that Trump voters will resist Trump’s attempt to move the GOP in a socially liberal direction.
@greg_price11: Kamala got caught in 4K telling a family in Pennsylvania to go back inside their house so she could stage a door knock lmfao. So fake. https://x.com/greg_price11/status/1853654945490260405
Harris greets Pennsylvania family on porch in apparent staging of ‘door knock’ — complete with stilted, awkward conversation https://trib.al/QDdjmvJ
@nicksortor: Kamala just pretended like she was talking to a voter on the phone, and then exposed herself by showing she was actually the camera app. More FAKERY from a campaign of fraud!
https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1853901945234182450
Kamala’s embarrassing Election Day gaffe as eagle-eyed viewers spot problem with photo-op ‘phone call’ https://trib.al/QTNzhvT
@paulsperry_: As a S.F prosecutor, Kamala hired Lateefah Simon, even tho she led the communist STORM Revolutionary Movement to help her “reform” the “broken criminal justice system” by focusing on “root causes”–racism and capitalism–of crime. Kamala gave Simon a convention speaking role.
Kamala Harris is not “estranged” from her radical (Marxist) father–that’s campaign spin. Don Harris was advising her campaign in 2019 and lives less than a mile from the White House. Sources say he’d be part of her “kitchen cabinet” and act as a shadow adviser. https://t.co/uBlwu6YsTu
Oprah to women voters: If you don’t elect Kamala, you will lose voting rights: (Dog whistle to legitimize cheating? Does Oprah have something to fear?) https://t.co/revlRwgOM4
Obama Is Still Waging War on Trump
Elon Musk told Joe Rogan in an interview Monday that Barack Obama made a big mistake in attacking Donald Trump… Maybe Karma explains why Obama has looked wan and anxious campaigning for Kamala Harris the last few weeks. He knows that if Trump returns to the White House, the president can hardly ignore the fact that making America great again — restoring the republic — means holding accountable the Obama aides and allies who perverted the rule of law and twisted the justice system to serve their own interests and wage an eight-year campaign against Trump, his aides, and his supporters. Trump has known since early in his first term that the trail leads to Obama…
It appears that Obama now understands that a second Trump presidency could finally hold accountable the Obama deputies and private sector allies whose abuses and unlawful actions destabilized the American government and polarized the nation.
https://tomklingenstein.com/obama-is-still-waging-war-on-trump/
Trump suggests he won’t challenge the election results — as long as it’s fair https://trib.al/9hKTfPc
@K_SDesai: Judge orders that Democrat “poll workers” intimidating voters at polling locations must remove MISLEADING “voter protection” badges inside of Alleghany County polling locations. Huge win for election integrity — the @GOP is fighting fire with fire!
Polymarket paying US-based influencers to promote election betting despite federal ban: report https://trib.al/tiQTuxn
Biden did attend Kamala Harris’s election night watch party.
@PpollingNumbers: New Exit poll – Who do you Trust Abortion: Harris 50% (+6), Trump 44%
(Crushing development for Dems and the MSM!)
CNN Exit Poll: Felling about the way things are going in the U.S.: Enthusiastic 7%; Satisfied 19%, Dissatisfied 43%; Angry 29% https://x.com/visegrad24/status/1853925452273865000
@visegrad24: Chris Wallace says it would be “a miracle” if Harris could win” considering how dissatisfied voters are with the situation in the country according to the exit poll
CNN Exit Poll: Biden Job Approval: Approve 41%, Disapprove 58%
CNN: 74% of voters say that inflation has caused their families moderate or severe hardship.
https://x.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1853931693305930230
@TheCalvinCooli1: FOX Exit Poll: Direction of the Country: Wrong track: 70%, Right track: 30%
Top issues: Economy: 39%, Immigration: 20%, Abortion: 11%; Economy: Excellent/good: 37%, Not so good/poor: 63%
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT\
Biden-Harris DoJ Reportedly Winding Down Trump Criminal Cases
Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 02:40 PM
Special Counsel Jack Smith, overseeing two federal cases against former President Donald Trump, has considered a possible pathway to end the cases, according to two sources familiar with the matter who spoke to NBC News. This news from the MSM outlet comes hours after Trump won the US presidential election.
Here’s more from NBC News:
The latest discussions stand in contrast with the pre-election legal posture of Special Counsel Jack Smith, who in recent weeks took significant steps in the election interference case against Trump without regard to the electoral calendar.
But the sources say DOJ officials have come to grips with the fact that no trial is possible any time soon in either the January 6th case or the classified documents matter—both of which are mired in legal issues that would likely prompt an appeal all the way to the Supreme Court, even if Trump had lost the election.
Now that Trump will become president again, DOJ officials see no room to pursue either criminal case against him—and no point in continuing to litigate them in the weeks before he takes office, the people said.
The outlet continued:
The sources said it will be up to Smith to decide exactly how to unwind the charges, and many questions remain unanswered. Could the prosecutions resume after Trump leaves office or would they be time-barred? What happens to the evidence? What about the two other defendants charged with helping Trump hide classified documents? Will Smith write a report, as special counsels usually do?
The sources say all those issues require study and research.
At the same time, Trump’s legal team is weighing their own next steps for how to resolve the outstanding federal cases in the former president’s favor now that he is the projected winner of the election. The ultimate goal is to get all of the federal and state cases wiped out completely — the strategic call is how best to accomplish that task, according to a person familiar with the discussions.
If the Trump side, for example, moved again in court to dismiss the charges in Washington for election interference, then the Justice Department could use its legal response to explain its position on not moving forward with that case.
As a reminder, Axios noted that there are four separate federal and state cases that involve Trump:
- New York hush money case: Trump was convicted in May on all 34 felony counts in his New York criminal trial, for falsifying business records to cover up a payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels before the 2016 election.
- Georgia election interference case: The sprawling racketeering case has been on hold since July, pending a legal battle over whether prosecutor Fani Willis should be removed from the case. Oral arguments are set for December 5th.
- Federal January 6th case: Special counsel Jack Smith’s criminal case over Trump’s alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election is on hold while Judge Tanya Chutkan decides how much of the case can proceed in light of the Supreme Court’s presidential immunity ruling.
- Federal classified documents case: The federal case, which was filed in Florida, was dismissed in July after Judge Aileen Cannon ruled Smith had been unlawfully appointed. Smith appealed the dismissal.
The former president has stated that he intends to end the federal criminal cases once he returns to the White House.
Surprisingly, the Biden-Harris DoJ may move first, well ahead of January 20th.
As Jonathan Turley notes, Donald Trump’s victory was the largest jury verdict that some of us anticipated for years of unrelenting weaponization of the legal system.
Smith’s prosecutions ended with the 270th Electoral College vote secured around 2 a.m. Wednesday. His unrelenting efforts to convict Trump and then, when prevented from holding a trial, to release damaging material before the election have collapsed with the blue wall in the Midwest.
Trump has said he plans to fire Smith on Day 1. That means the end of both the January 6 and the classified documents cases.
That leaves James and Bragg as residue of long-forgotten lawfare battles, but even there Trump’s prospects look good.
James was able to secure a fellow lawfare warrior in Justice Arthur Engoron, who imposed a grotesque $455 million in fines and interest.https://www.youtube.com/embed/LQ5mYIeLjkw?si=1l9QlMoBgAzjqM5A
That ruling is pending an appeal that is expected to be a partial or even total victory for Trump.
Unlike Engoron, the appellate judges expressed great skepticism in September over the size of the penalty and even the use of this law.
Trump faced half a billion dollars in penalty in a case where no one lost a dime, and the alleged victim banks wanted more business with Trump and his company.
Separately, there is a hearing scheduled in front of Judge Juan Merchan for Nov. 11 on the “hush money” case involving Stormy Daniels, and a possible sentencing on Nov. 26.
If Merchan seeks to jail Trump, it is unlikely to be carried out, as Trump appeals the case and the many alleged errors committed by the judge.
Merchan made an utter mess of a case that should never have been filed, let alone tried. Even commentators like CNN’s senior legal analyst, Elie Honig, have denounced the case as selective prosecution and unfounded.
The case should result in a conditional discharge with no jail time if Merchan can resist the temptation to unjustly punish Trump, a level of restraint that has largely proven difficult for him in the case.
Merchan created layers of appealable errors in the case. Putting those alleged errors aside, any sentencing to jail would create its own constitutional conflict with Trump’s performance of his federal duties.
The question is whether the election will bring a moment of sobriety for New Yorkers who have spent years in a full rage-driven celebration of lawfare.
While Trump did not prevail in New York, he came closer than any Republican in decades.
After this steady diet of politicized prosecutions in New York, Trump secured 44.3% of the vote, while Harris received 55.7%. In 2020, the margin was 23 points.
It is doubtful that the election will completely kill the appetite for lawfare in New York. As I wrote in my recent book, “The Indispensable Right: Free Speech in an Age of Rage,” “rage is liberating, even addictive. It allows us to say and do things that we would ordinarily avoid, even denounce in others.”
What people do not want to admit that is that they like the rage.
Rage addicts will continue to push James and Bragg to continue these unhinged campaigns. It is not prosecutorial — it is recreational.
We can only hope that James and Bragg feel a twinge of humility when their cases fall apart along with the Kamala Harris campaign.
And Merchan has the opportunity to use this brief sobering moment and issue a conditional discharge without home or actual confinement.
He can take judicial notice of Trump’s election as our next president and end this circus in Manhattan.
Instead of listening to the braying mob, he can act as a judge.
MSNBC is not thrilled with these new developments…
Fox News says, ‘Trump legal problems have all – essentially – gone away’…
Here’s what X users are saying:
. . .
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU THURSDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
