Says it all

SPECIAL thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:

GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $30.50 TO $2698.70

SILVER PRICE UP $0.11 TO $31.76

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2705.70

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $32.00

Bitcoin morning price:$74,943 DOWN 896 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $76,919 UP 1080 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing UP $3.95 TO $993.75

Palladium price; DOWN $18.15 TO $1024.15

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3750.60 UP 34.77 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2083.98 UP 16.26 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,504.53 UP 22.67 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)

DONATE

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END

EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,667.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/06/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 11/08/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

118 C MACQUARIE FUT 390
190 H BMO CAPITAL 179
323 C HSBC 1
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 176
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 9
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 16
737 C ADVANTAGE 2 9
905 C ADM 6 7

---

TOTAL: 398 398
MONTH TO DATE: 1,995

JPMorgan stopped 0/392

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 392 NOTICES FOR 39,200 OZ  1.348 TONNES

total notices so far: 1995 contracts for 199,500 Oz (6.205 tonnes)

FOR  NOV

SILVER NOTICES: 2 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0.10 MILLION OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 654 for 3.270 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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END

GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD UP 30.50 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD: HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP $0.11 AT THE SLV

NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY OUT OF THE SLV:

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.841 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1921 CONTRACTS TO 149,205 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR MONSTROUS LOSS OF $1,41 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 164 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $1.41  IN PRICE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS. THEY HAD MUCH  SUCCESS YESTERDAY WITH OUR BANKER’S FRIEND OF A HUGE RAID. WE HAD ZERO SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE WEDNESDAY..  WE HAD A  HUGE 885 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS 1479 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AND THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS PLUS TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE WITH ANOTHER ABJECT FAILURE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUGE 1036 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. ALL OF THE LOSS WAS DUE TO TAS LIQUIDATION

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND AGAIN THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A MEGA HUMONGOUS 1379 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $1.41) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A SMALL GAIN OF 164 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. 

WE HAD A HUGE 885 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING RISES TO: 3.465 MILLION OZ

// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 3.4650 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUGE SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1379 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A HUGE 1516 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 5 DAYS, total 6105 contracts:   OR 30.525 MILLION OZ  (1221 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  30.525 MILLION OZ

LAST 23 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 30.525 MILLION OZ (WILL BE QUITE LARGE THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A GOOD SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 405  CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS OF $1.41 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 885 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF  2.810 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 10,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 3.465 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A HUGE LOSS OF 1921 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR DISASTROUS LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 1379 CONTRACTS ( WILL BE USED FOR THURSDAY’S TRADING),//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION

/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT   (1379) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

WE HAD 2 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.010 MILLION OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,409 OI CONTRACTS  TO 547,625 AND CLOSER TO THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 1979 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (10,409 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $72.80 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 6.534 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 6.534 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED DESPITE OUR $72.80 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX RAID///. WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF ONLY 3965 OI CONTRACTS (12.33 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OF 40,000 OZ)

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 6444 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 549,604

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3965 CONTRACTS  WITH 10,409 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 6444 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3865 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED 2765 CONTRACTS, WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6444 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 10,409 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3965 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUMONGOUS 40,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP 

//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 6.534 TONNES 

 / 3) CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE RISE WITH HUGE SUCCESS WEDNESDAY , AND WITH SOME NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED THURSDAY MORNING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 2765 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 28,794 CONTRACTS OF 2,879,400 OZ OR 89.56 TONNES IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5758 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 5 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  89.56 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  89.56 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 2.53% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 89.56 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 1921 CONTRACTS OI  TO 149,205 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 885 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 885 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 885 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 405   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 885 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A HUMONGOUS SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 1036 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 5.180 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR   $1.41 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 86.86 PTS OR 2.57%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 414.96 PTS OR 2.02%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 99.26 OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1585 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1669// Oil UP TO 70.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.44 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 10,409 CONTRACTS TO 547,625 WITH OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE OF $72.80 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST FEW NET IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (6444).

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING YESTERDAY’S HUGE RAID.

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 112+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT 197 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY!

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S GAIN IN PRICE AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING. HOWEVER MANY LONGS WERE CLIPPED ON LAST THURSDAY’S AND FRIDAY’S RAID AND IT CONTINUED WITH THE HUGE RAID YESTERDAY. THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 6444 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  6444 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6444 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3965 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6444 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,409 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS FAIR LOSS  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUMONGOUS LOSS IN PRICE OF $72.80 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A STRONG SIZED 2765 CONTRACTS,  WAS USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK)

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   NOV (6.534 TONNES) WHICH IS GOOD FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 6.534 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY A HUGE  $72.80/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF SOME NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE CONSIDERABLE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY BUT THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING.

WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 12.33 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUMONGOUS QUEUE JUMP OF 400 CONTRACTS OR 40,000 OZ (1.244 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A HUGE SIZED QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD.

//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 6.534 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 6.534 TONNES

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $72.80

WE HAD 1979 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 3965 CONTRACTS OR 396,500 OZ (12.33 TONNES)

confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 421,271 contracts//monstrous//massive t.a.s. liquidation

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

NOV 7  OCT  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE NOV 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	NIL           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	805.45 OZ BRINKS ENHANCED these 2 bars are London good delivery bars with location strictly in london.
No of oz served (contracts) today	395 notice(s) 39500 OZ 1.238 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	106 contracts    10600 OZ 0.3297 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	1995 notices 199,500oz 6.205 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 1 customer deposits

i) Brinks 805.45 oz Bricks enhance

these are 2 London 400+ oz each, good delivery bars.

total deposits 805.45 oz 

withdrawals: 0

adjustments: 0

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.

For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 451 contracts having GAINED 387 contracts. We had 13 contracts served on WEDNESDAY so we gained A MONSTROUS 400 contracts as they underwent a good queue jump of 40,000 oz (1.244 TONNES OF GOLD)

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 16,977 CONTRACTS TO 372,338

JANUARY GAINED 56 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 113

FEBRUARY GAINED 6542 CONTRACTS TO 113,455 .

We had 396 contracts filed for today representing 39,600 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 395 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (1995 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV(451 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (396 x 100 oz per contract( equals  210,100 OZ  OR 6.534 TONNES.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month:  No of notices filed so far (1995 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV  (451 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (395 x 100 oz which equals  210,100 oz (6.534 TONNES)  +

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 6.534 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,599,125.751  oz 49.74 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,134,174.442 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,619,760.679/// 237.00tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,514,413.763 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,020,635 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 187.26 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV   7. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE NOV 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	304,092.277 oz CNT Delaware .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	1,200,,023.270 oz HSBC CNT
No of oz served today (contracts)	2 CONTRACT(S)    (10,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	39 contracts  (195,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	654 Contracts  (3.270 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  2 customer deposits

i) Into HSBC 600,036.220 oz

ii) Into CNT 599,987.040 oz

total customer deposits 1,200,023.270 oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of CNT 303,,107.07 oz

ii) Out of Delaware: 985,700 oz

total withdrawal 304,092.77 ooz oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/311.809million  or 43.10%

adjustment 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.073MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 311.809 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 41 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACT

WE HAD 3 NOTICES FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 2 CONTRACTS OR 10,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 4464 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 106,682 CONTRACTS

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 64 CONTRACTS UP TO 1058

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 1 for 0.010 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 139,690 monstrous//huge t.a.s. liquidation

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 654x 5,000 oz = 3.270 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (41) and the number of notices served upon today (2)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month:  654 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(41) number of notices served upon today minus (2)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 3.465 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 3.465 million oz.

There are 70.077 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES

OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES

OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES

OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES

OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES

OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

 OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

 OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES

 OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES

SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES

SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES

SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES

SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES

SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 883.46 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

NOV 4  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ

NOV 1  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ

OCT 31  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ

OCT 30  WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 29  WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 28  WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ

OCT 25  WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ

OCT 24  WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ

OCT 23  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ

 OCT 22  WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ

OCT 18  WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 17  WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 16  WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15  WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11  WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9  WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

 OCT 7  WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

 OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ

OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ

OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ

SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ

SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ

SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ

SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ

SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ

SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ

SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ

SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ

SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 475.841 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA. DISPATCHES

Ronan Manly: Gold remains strong as central banks sustain upward gold buying trend in 2024

Submitted by admin on Wed, 2024-11-06 10:53 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Ronan Manly
Bullion Star, Singapore
Wednesday, November 6, 2024

As we enter the final stretch of 2024 with the international gold price having made continual new highs during the last eight months, it’s encouraging to see that central banks, on a collective basis, are still large net buyers of physical gold for their monetary gold reserves.

According to the World Gold Council’s just released Gold Demand Trend report for the third quarter of 2024, central banks (and other official sector institutions) added a net 694 tonnes of gold to their monetary gold reserves during the first nine months of 2024. This comprises net buying of 305 tonnes of gold in Q1, 203 tonnes in Q2, and 186 tonnes in Q3.

Based on World Gold Council data (which is collected by precious metals consultancy Metals Focus), January–September 2024 central bank gold purchases are below the January–September 2023 period (when central banks added a net 833 tonnes of gold), but on a par with the first nine months of 2022 (when central banks bought a combined 700 tonnes of gold).

Recalling that 2022 was a record year for central bank gold buying (with central banks net buying 1082 tonnes of gold), and 2023 was not far off that (with central banks net buying 1,049 tonnes), then 2024 is set to be a respectable year also, independent of what buying might or might not occur in the fourth quarter of 2024, and shows that the investment rationale of central banks buying gold — store of value, safe haven, no counterparty risk, no sanctions risk, diversification benefits — are still intact. …

… For the remainder of the report:

https://www.bullionstar.com/blog

END

Junior gold miners are appealing takeover targets as bullion prices climb

Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-11-05 18:17 Section: Daily Dispatches

By Dominique Gene and Andrew Willis
The Globe and Mail, Toronto
Monday, November 4, 2024

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-junior-gold-miners-are-…

For the mining crowd, the annual Denver Gold Forum is a chance to swap speculation on potential deals. At this year’s gathering in September, all the takeover talk revolved around junior companies with promising properties being snapped up by larger rivals.

The country’s smallest gold miners — those developing projects that are years away from producing bullion — are becoming attractive takeover targets. Soaring gold prices have boosted the valuations of senior and intermediate mining companies and left them flush with cash, while stock prices continue to languish at exploration companies.

After hosting a series of meetings and dinners at this year’s Denver conference, mining analyst Tanya Jakusconek at Bank of Nova Scotia said in a report: “The M&A chatter this year was focused on taking out smaller-sized companies, including juniors in key mining camps, given the depressed valuations and limited access to capital.”

The price of gold soared 37% over the past year, closing Friday at US$2,736 an ounce. Last week investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted the rally will continue and the price will hit US$3,000 an ounce next year.

Takeover activity in the mining sector is picking up, with 125 deals announced in Canada in the second quarter of the year, up 34% from the previous three-month period, according to investment bank Crosbie & Co. The value of mining M&A in the most recent quarter jumped to $964 million from $328 million in the prior quarter.

So far this year, large and mid-sized mining companies focused on acquiring one another, not picking off junior companies with projects that will take years to produce gold. In a report last week, analysts at RBC Capital Markets predicted that the dynamic is about to change, as senior miners begin taking advantage of a rising tide that has only lifted a few boats.

“We think rising producer margins could start to encourage activity to backfill asset portfolios, especially if access to early-stage capital remains limited,” the RBC analysts said.

The investment bank tracked more than 100 junior mining companies, and its top stock picks based on the quality of their projects, rather than takeover potential, are Artemis Gold, Skeena Resources Ltd., and Seabridge Gold.

Brian Graves, a mergers and acquisitions lawyer at law firm Fasken, said takeover activity picked up at established producers, but not at junior companies, in part because mining executives want to see more evidence that higher bullion prices are here to stay before committing capital to projects years away from producing gold.

The higher spot gold price offers immediate benefits for senior companies that are in production, whereas the value of junior companies, which are still in the exploration or development stages, tend to be more influenced by long-term gold price forecasts, Mr. Graves said.

“There may be a concern amongst potential acquirers that the price isn’t sustainable,” he said, adding that management teams at established producers fear overpaying for projects, which they have been guilty of doing in the past.

At the 2017 Denver forum, executives at New York-based hedge fund Paulson & Co., led by long-time gold bull John Paulson, lambasted gold producers for wasting billions of dollars on value-destroying mergers and acquisitions.

M&A activity at junior miners is also being held back because the companies’ executives and boards are often reluctant to engage in takeover talks with their stock prices at relatively low valuations, Mr. Graves said. He said the management mindset at most exploration companies is to maintain control, keep raising capital, and try to reap the rewards that come from bringing a mine into production.

Juniors have found a way to bridge the gap between financings and M&A through joint ventures, Mr. Graves said. There’s an uptick in these ventures, which allows junior companies to stay involved in their assets without giving them up entirely, which they would have to do in an M&A deal.

On the other hand, senior companies can make strategic investments without fully committing to a particular junior company, Mr. Graves said.

For potential acquirers, pouncing on a junior company in the preliminary stages of launching a mine is typically the best way to make money. In a report published last month, analysts Ovais Habib and Eric Winmill at Scotiabank looked at 17 mines built over the past decade and concluded that senior mining companies “can achieve a better value proposition by pursuing earlier-stage rather than later-stage development projects when looking to make an acquisition.”

“For corporates looking to expand their growth pipeline and acquire a new project, that project will get considerably more expensive” as it gets closer to production, the Scotiabank analysts said.

* * *

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 197 ANDREW MAGUIRE

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: ALUMINA

.

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 86.86 PTS OR 2.57%

//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 414.96 PTS OR 2.02%

// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 99.26 OR 0.25%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.30%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.1585 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.1669// Oil UP TO 70.96 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 74.44 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.1585

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.1669

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 86.86 PTS OR 2.57%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 414.96 PTS OR 2.02%

2. Nikkei closed DOWN 99.26 PTS OR 0.25%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  104.67 EURO RISES TO 1.0769 UP 40 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.001 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 160.86…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil UP for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.4720 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.798 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.225

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.276

3j Gold at $2672/50 /Silver at: 31.28  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 55/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 97.61

3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and  74 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.81  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.001% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8754 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9428  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.4942 UP 2 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.620 UP 2 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.261 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.24…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.621 UP 1 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.341 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.156 DOWN 0 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

S&P Futures Extend Gains As Trump Trades Cool

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 08:18 AM

US equity futures extended their post-election gains, as S&P futures traded near session high with both Tech and small caps outperforming as the dollar eased and yields were flat, as traders continued to map out Trump’s return to the White House and what it holds for the Fed’s interest-rate path. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futs traded 0.2% higher after surging in the previous session on bets that the newly elected President will boost corporates through pro-growth policies; Nasdaq futures rose 0.4% after hitting a new all time high on Wednesday; Mag7 names were mixed premarket with semis bid despite NVDA dipping -21bps. An index of the dollar retreated 0.3% following its best day since Sept 2022. Moves in US Treasury yields were muted after Wednesday’s seismic selloff; bond yields are 1-2bps lower as the curve steepens. The commodity complex is mixed with Ags higher, Energy lower, and Base metals outperforming Precious. Today’s macro data focus is on the Fed’s decision (2pm ET) and the BOE (7am ET); both CBs are expected to cut by 25bps.

In premarket trading, Lyft soared 22% after the ride-hailing company topped fourth-quarter forecast, with analysts positive about the company’s profitability path. Tinder parent Match Group tumbled 13% after the dating-app company’s fourth-quarter revenue forecast missed estimates. SolarEdge shares slumped 16% after the renewable-energy-equipment provider took a $1-billion writedown and issued underwhelming guidance for the fourth quarter. Here are some other premarket movers:

• AppLovin (APP) rises 30% after 3Q results from the mobile-gaming software company beat expectations.
• Arm Holdings (ARM) falls 6% after the chip designer issued a disappointing forecast for third-quarter revenue.
• Bumble (BMBL) drops 6% after the dating-app company posted in-line results, and analysts flagged concerns about limited visibility on the turnaround strategy.
• Corteva (CTVA) declines 7% after the company cut its net sales guidance for the year, as a reduced corn-planted area in Argentina hurt the company’s seed business in the 3Q.
• Digital Turbine (APPS) sinks 38% after the application software company cut its full-year revenue forecast.
• Dutch Bros (BROS) jumps 17% after the drive-thru coffee chain boosted its full-year total revenue forecast.
• Elf Beauty (ELF) climbs 10% after the cosmetics company boosted its full-year guidance.
• Qualcomm (QCOM) rises 6% after the world’s biggest seller of smartphone processors gave a bullish sales forecast for the current period.
• Tapestry shares (TPR) climbs 5% after the accessories company raised its annual guidance.
• Wolfspeed (WOLF) sinks 25% after the semiconductor device company gave weak second-quarter guidance below consensus.

The furious post-election rally eased on Thursday after grappling with the far-reaching consequences of a Trump presidency. His win has forced investors to come to terms with economic policies that could lead to fewer Fed rate cuts, along with a possible Republican sweep of Congress that could help fuel fiscal expansion.

“What we saw yesterday was the playbook of the Trump trade in action but it’s soon going to evolve,” said Arnaud Girod, head of economics and cross-asset strategy at Kepler Cheuvreux in Paris. “US yields can’t continue to go up with US equities on the rise, my conviction is that yields will calm down.”

Ahead of the Fed’s rate cut at 2pm (full preview here), the Bank of England lowered borrowing costs earlier on Thursday by 25 basis points to 4.75%. Governor Andrew Bailey said that rates are likely to fall “gradually from here” and that last week’s UK budget will lift inflation by just under half a percentage point at its peak.

In Europe, stock also gained for a second day, with the Stoxx 600 rising 0.6% led by gains in basic resources after Chinese stocks closed near a one-month high as traders digested the possibility of fresh elections in Germany and whether it could help to revive growth in Europe’s biggest economy. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:

• Banco Bpm shares rise as much as 11% to the highest in almost nine years, after the Italian lender launched an all-cash takeover offer for asset manager Anima Holding SpA
• Swiss Re surges as much as 7.1%, the most in four years, after the reinsurer raised its US liability reserves by $2.4b in Property & Casualty Reinsurance in 3Q, following a comprehensive review
• Heidelberg Materials rises as much as 7.7% to their highest intraday value on record after results Jefferies called a pleasant surprise. Analysts highlighted its guidance upgrade as a positive
• ArcelorMittal shares climb as much as 5.4% after Netherlands-based mining company reported 3Q Ebitda beat that analysts attributed mainly to Brazil, Europe and mining
• PKO shares jump as much as 3% while Pekao surges as much as 6.5% following strong 3Q results by Poland’s two biggest lenders, which showed more tailwinds from the country’s high interest-rate environment
• Delivery Hero shares climb as much as 4.1% after the German delivery company narrowed its 2024 growth guidance to the upper end of the range. Analysts say the valuation is compelling
• Adyen shares fall as much as 13% after the payments firm reported net sales that missed estimates, driven by lower processing volumes, wholly driven by a single large customer
• ITV drops as much as 10% after the broadcaster gave an underwhelming forecast for a decline in total advertising revenue in 4Q, with ad bookings taking a hit from uncertainty ahead of the UK budget
• Novo Nordisk shares drop as much as 5.3% to the lowest since January as analysts weighed the drugmaker’s comments about next year’s revenue growth rate, which was slightly below market expectations
• Air France-KLM shares tumble as much as 12%, the steepest drop in two years, after reporting a third-quarter earnings before interest and tax that missed expectations
• Legrand drops as much as 6.9%, the most in a year, after the French electrical-device manufacturer released what analysts see as a “soft set” of numbers, with narrowed guidance
• Rolls-Royce shares drop as much as 4.9%, retreating from Wednesday’s record high, after the aerospace and defense firm’s engine flying hours came in toward the low-end of its guidance

Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, supported by a rally in China, as expectations grow that Beijing will unveil more stimulus at this week’s key policy meeting to counter potential risks from Trump’s second presidency. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 1%, on track to hit the highest level in more than two weeks. Toyota, TSMC and DBS were among the biggest contributors. Most major markets in the region advanced Thursday, led by mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore. Japan’s Topix also rose, while Philippine and Indonesian stocks extended losses to a second day. Chinese shares rebounded strongly from Wednesday’s losses as robust exports data lifted sentiment. Traders are monitoring the Standing Committee meeting of the National People’s Congress, which concludes Friday, for possibly more measures to boost the economy and markets.

“The market is speculating the policymaker would announce a relatively large scale of fiscal package to stimulate domestic demand after the NPC meeting, in order to offset the potential tariff hike risk from Trump,” said Jason Chan, senior investment strategist of Bank of East Asia. “So sectors like consumer, property, Internet and SOEs are the major contributors.”

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index falls 0.3%. The Norwegian krone is the best performer among the G-10 currencies, rising 1.1% against the greenback after the Norges Bank repeated no imminent plans for easing. The Swedish krona adds 0.5% after the Riksbank cut interest rates by 50 bps. The pound surged 0.6% after the hawkish Bank of England rate 25bps cut with traders seeing no more rate cuts until next year.

In rates, treasuries traded higher, with US 10-year yields falling less than a basis point to 4.43%. German bonds underperform their US peers, with the long end under pressure as traders brace for the possibility of more debt sales after the nation’s ruling coalition collapsed. German 10-year yields rise 8 bps and are above the equivalent swap rate for the first time as traders braced for the possibility of an administration that could be more tolerant of increasing debt.

In commodities, oil prices decline, with WTI falling 0.8% to $71.10 a barrel. Spot gold rises $8 to $2,667/oz.

Looking at the US economic data calendar, the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision at 2pm ET, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. The slate also includes 3Q productivity and unit labor costs and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), September wholesale inventories (10am) and consumer credit (3pm).

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 5,971.00
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.7% to 510.21
• MXAP up 0.9% to 188.94
• MXAPJ up 0.8% to 601.67
• Nikkei down 0.3% to 39,381.41
• Topix up 1.0% to 2,743.08
• Hang Seng Index up 2.0% to 20,953.34
• Shanghai Composite up 2.6% to 3,470.66
• Sensex down 1.0% to 79,549.06
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 8,226.30
• Kospi little changed at 2,564.63
• German 10Y yield +6.5bps at 2.47%
• Euro up 0.3% to $1.0758
• Brent Futures down 0.3% to $74.70/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.2% to $2,663.91
• US Dollar Index down 0.24% to 104.84

Top Overnight News

• China’s exports surged in Oct (+12.7% vs. the Street +5% and up from +2.4% in Sept) as the government’s stimulus measures start to bear fruit, although the number means trade tensions are set to climb between Beijing and other major economies. WSJ
• BHP’s CEO says the company is finally starting to see “green shoots” in China’s economy as government stimulus efforts begin to bear fruit. FT
• Japan’s chief currency official warned of potential action against excessive yen moves. Separately, Trump’s victory may prompt a near-term rate hike if the yen weakens further, former BOJ exec Kazuo Momma said. BBG
• The BOE cut rates by 25 bps to 4.75% today. Focus will be on the path for borrowing costs beyond that, after it was thrown into doubt by the fallout from the UK budget and Trump’s victory. BBG
• GS FOMC Preview – Consecutive 25bp Cuts for Now. Fed officials have sounded more relaxed about both sides of their dual mandate than at earlier points this year. This should make a 25bp cut at the November meeting uncontroversial. We expect cuts to remain consecutive at least through December and are penciling in four more consecutive cuts in the first half of 2025 to a terminal rate of 3.25-3.5% but see more uncertainty about both the speed next year and the final destination. GIR
• The outcome of the House battle remains uncertain, with many key races still too close to call, particularly in California where absentee ballots can be counted for up to a week after the election. BBG
• President-elect Donald Trump and his senior advisers are privately assembling shortlists of candidates for top jobs in the incoming administration, from White House chief of staff to Treasury secretary. Potential Trump cabinet candidates include Chief of Staff (Susie Wiles), Treasury (Scott Bessent, John Paulson, Robert Lighthizer, Jay Clayton, Bill Hagerty), State (Marco Rubio), Defense (Mike Pompeo), Justice (Mike Lee, John Ratcliffe, Eric Schmitt, Tom Cotton), Commerce (Linda McMahon). WSJ
• Scott Bessent — a hedge fund manager and top Trump fundraiser — is positioning himself to be Treasury secretary and canvassing candidates to serve as his deputy. FT
• Companies could accelerate imports to the US in an effort to get ahead of potential Trump tariffs, providing a boost to trucking and railroad firms. WSJ

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks were somewhat mixed albeit with a mostly positive bias as the dust settled from the US election and the Trump trade began to wane after reverberating across global markets with participants bracing for higher US tariffs, while participants also digested Chinese trade data as the attention turned to the incoming central bank rate decisions including from the FOMC. ASX 200 was indecisive but eventually finished positive as strength in energy, tech, industrials and financials gradually picked up the slack from weakness in real estate and defensives, while weak Australian trade data capped the upside. Nikkei 225 initially surged on the back of a weaker currency but failed to sustain the momentum and gave back its spoils. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp shrugged off the threat of incoming blanket tariffs from the next US administration as participants continued to await a potential fiscal stimulus announcement and as the latest Chinese trade data was mostly better-than-expected with double-digit export growth. Furthermore, the PBoC held a meeting with international financial institutions and affirmed to continue its accommodative monetary policy, while China told banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth.

Top Asian news

• PBoC held a meeting with international financial institutions including HSBC (5 HK), Standard Chartered (2888 HK) and Citi (C), while it affirmed to continue accommodative monetary policy stance and vowed to strengthen communication with the market. Furthermore, Governor Pan said they are to expand connectivity between domestic and overseas markets.
• China instructed banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese President Xi congratulated Trump on winning the US presidential election and said he hopes that the two sides will respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win-win cooperation. Furthermore, Xi said both sides should strengthen dialogue and that US-China cooperation is a long-term goal, according to Xinhua.
• Japanese top currency diplomat Mimura said they are closely watching market moves with a high sense of urgency and are ready to take appropriate actions for excess FX moves if needed.
• Nissan (7201 JT) is revising its FY24/25 operating profit forecast to JPY 150bln (prev. guided 500bln), withdraws net forecast; to sell a partial stake in Mitsubishi Motors (8058 JT). To reduce the global headcount by 9k & production capacity by 20%.

European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.6%) began the session on a modestly firmer footing and continued to edge higher as the morning progressed. Today’s EZ-specific docket has been relatively light, but focus ahead will lie on policy announcements from the BoE and the Fed thereafter. Region awaiting updates on China’s stimulus and also sensitive to ongoing political uncertainty in Germany. European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Basic Resources is by far the clear outperformer, lifted by strength in underlying metals prices after strong Chinese price action overnight. Telecoms is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by losses in Telefonica (-1.5%) and BT (-5.2%), with the latter also lowering its FY25 guidance.
US Equity Futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer across the board, taking a breather following the significant gains seen in the prior session, where the S&P500 soared to record highs after Trump returned to Presidency.

Top European news

• Riksbank cuts its Rate by 50bps as expected to 2.75% (prev. 3.25%); policy rate may also be lowered in December and H1 2025 (in line with what was communicated in September). Click for details.. Riksbank’s Theeden says flash CPI data for October do not change the overall picture; Crown is a risk factor “but we don’t think it will affect out inflation picture”. Says the rate path is more uncertain than usual.
• Norges Bank leaves its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; “the policy rate will most likely be kept at 4.5 percent to the end of 2024”. Click for details.
• Deutsche Bank lowers its terminal ECB rate forecast to 1.5% from 2.25%
• ECB’s Schnabel says the balance sheet reduction has not left any significant footprint in many areas, thus far.
• ECB survey on Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: firms report moderate tightening of financing conditions shows cost pressures remain widespread across businesses of all sizes. Firms reported little changes regarding the availability of bank loans. However, firms’ need for bank loans has declined moderately, partly due to high internal funds. Substantially fewer firms reported rising bank interest rates on loans, although many indicated a further tightening of other conditions. Firms’ inflation expectations continued to decline, with their median expectations for annual inflation in one, three and five years all standing at 2.9%.
• Joerg Kukies has been appointed German Finance Minister, replacing Lindner.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says overall freight volumes from Europe continue to report a slight 4% Y/Y increase; freight rates continue to decline. Seeing demand in Europe bounce back a lot stronger this year.

FX

• USD is giving back some ground to major peers after the DXY sky-rocketed from 103.70 to 105.44 on account of the Trump victory. Attention now turns to today’s FOMC announcement which is expected to see the Fed step down to a 25bps cadence of rate cuts.
• EUR has been able to make some headway vs. the USD. However, today’s peak at 1.0771 is some way off Wednesday’s best at 1.0936. As such, it remains to be seen how much legs the attempted recovery has, particularly given the political instability in Germany with the prospect of a general election in March next year.
• GBP is attempting to undo some of the damage seen during yesterday’s session with Cable returning to a 1.29 handle after delving as low as 1.2835. Expectations are for a 25bps cut via a 7-2 vote split.
• JPY is attempting to recoup some of the lost ground vs. the USD brought on by Trump’s victory. However, progress has been relatively limited with USD/JPY’s current low at 153.66 standing in contrast to Wednesday’s 151.27 trough.
• Antipodeans are both markedly higher and leading the charge against the USD after what was a particularly bruising session on Wednesday given exposure to China. Accordingly, AUD/USD has almost pared a bulk of yesterday’s move that dragged it down from a 0.6644 high to a 0.6511 low.
• SEK is flat following the Riksbank’s decision to cut rates by 50bps as expected (despite some outside calls for a 25bps) reduction and reiterate guidance on rates. EUR/NOK has extended on yesterday’s downside with an in-line decision from the Norges Bank underscoring the Bank’s hawkish credentials relative to most other peers.
• China state-owned banks were seen selling US dollars and buying yuan, according to traders.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1659 vs exp. 7.1679 (prev. 7.0993).
• Brazil Central Bank hiked the Selic rate by 50bps to 11.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB stated the pace of future interest rate adjustments and total magnitude of the cycle will be determined by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target. Furthermore, it stated the pace of future interest rate adjustments and total cycle magnitude will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, the output gap, and the balance of risks, while it added that risks to inflation scenarios are tilted to the upside.

USTs

• USTs are a touch firmer and holding around 109-20, but has been as low as 109-14. Despite the slight bid, the curve remains steeper with the long-end picking up while the short end pulls back slightly as attention turns to the FOMC later tonight, where a 25bps cut is entirely priced in. On the election, the story is much the same as we continue to await a decision on the House race to determine whether markets are contending with a Trump with or without Congress scenario
• Bunds have recently lost the 131.00 mark, down to a 130.74 low which is clear of Wednesday’s 130.58 trough. The main update has been the sacking of Germany’s Finance Minister Lindner (a debt brake advocate). An update which broke the already-fractured coalition and has seen Chancellor Scholz pencil in an early-January confidence vote, which he will likely lose, paving the way for snap-elections in Q1.
• Gilts are firmer on the session as we count down to the BoE. A meeting which is expected to deliver a 25bps cut with the focus largely on forward guidance. Currently, pivoting the 93.00 mark, picking up slightly from an opening 92.89 base and clear of Wednesday’s 92.53 trough.
• Spain sells EUR 4bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4.5bln 2.70% 2030, 4.00% 2054 Bono & EUR 0.495bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 0.70% 2033 I/L Bono Auction.
• France sells EUR 12.5bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 3.0% 2034, 4.00% 2035, 0.50% 2044 and 3.25% 2055 OAT Auction.

Commodities

• Crude is modestly weaker and around USD 1.50/bbl off Wednesday’s best but still almost twice that from the troughs. The complex continues to await geopolitical updates out of the Middle East and whether Trump achieves an election sweep.
• Recent attention on a comment from Kann News, which wrote “The preparation for an Iranian attack: the US moved a squadron of F15s to the Middle East – after dozens of fighter jets and 6 B-52 strategic bombers were moved to the region last week” in reference to recent flight radar data.
• Spot gold is a touch firmer, benefitting from the DXY easing below the 105.00 mark. However, magnitudes are relatively slim and XAU remains some way off the virtual double-top from Tuesday & Wednesday at USD 2748-49/oz.
• Base metals are firmer, rebounding after yesterday’s pressure and benefitting from bullish remarks on “green shoots” in China from the BHP CEO and anticipation of Chinese stimulus. Overnight, Chinese exports were particularly strong though desks caution on reading too much into this given looming Trump tariffs (potentially as much as 60% on China).
• NHC updated that the centre of Rafael is moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico with a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding continuing over portions of western Cuba.

Geopolitics

• Kann News writes “The preparation for an Iranian attack: the US moved a squadron of F15s to the Middle East – after dozens of fighter jets and 6 B-52 strategic bombers were moved to the region last week” in reference to recent flight radar data.
• Israeli warplanes heavily bombard a number of areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Qahera News.
• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he congratulated Trump by phone and they agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance cooperation, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it is fully confident the US will continue strong cross-party support for Taiwan going forward and noted that Taiwan-US relations are solid as a rock. It also stated that Taiwan’s government looks forward to continuing to deepen ties with the US under the Trump administration and they will continue to strengthen cooperation on combating economic coercion, while they cannot rule out that during the US transition, China will test the bottom line of the new US President by increasing “grey zone” activities which may not only be limited to military drills but could also involve internet attacks.
• South Korean President Yoon said in a phone call with US President-elect Trump that he looks forward to continuing a close relationship on security and economy, while they agreed to meet in the near future and Trump said the American shipbuilding industry needs South Korea’s help and cooperation. They also agreed on the need for a strong partnership in the Asia-Pacific and discussed North Korea’s ICBM launch, as well as the release of trash balloons into South Korea.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: 3Q Nonfarm Productivity, est. 2.5%, prior 2.5%
  • 3Q Unit Labor Costs, est. 1.0%, prior 0.4%
• 08:30: Initial Jobless Claims, est. 222,000, prior 216,000
  • Oct. Continuing Claims, est. 1.87m, prior 1.86m10:00: Sept. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 10:00: Sept. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.1%
• 14:00: Nov. Fed Interest on Reserve Balanc, est. 4.65%, prior 4.90%
• 15:00: Sept. Consumer Credit, est. $12.2b, prior $8.93b

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Morning from Oslo where I gave a speech to clients at a large annual dinner last night. I’m not sure how I stayed up as I thought I’d left the days of being awake all night behind me when the twins arrived 7 years ago. I spent most of yesterday walking around like a zombie after being awake most of election night. Hopefully that won’t happen again unless I have more kids (would be a biological miracle for my wife and I collectively aged more than 100) or until November 2028!

As if the US election was not enough, yesterday evening brought major political news out of Germany as Chancellor Scholz called for a confidence vote on January 15 with snap elections likely to follow in March. Our German economists had noted earlier in the day that the US election outcome could add to the tensions in Germany’s three-way coalition and lead to a political circuit-breaker. That materialised last night with SPD’s Scholz dismissing FDP’s Lindner as Finance Minister. The current coalition has been at odds over the budget, and Lindner said he had refused the Chancellor’s request to suspend Germany’s debt brake, while Scholz called for “more financial wiggle room”. With an early election now on the cards, a key question is whether this could lead to a step change in Germany’s fiscal policy. As things stand, Politico’s polling average shows the centre-right CDU in the lead at 32%, followed by the populist AFD on 18% and centre-left SPD on 16%. The greens are at 10%, while the liberal FDP is at 4% (shy of the 5% parliament entry threshold).

Looking now at the market reaction to the US election result. Let’s start with some highlights. The S&P 500 (+2.53%) hit its 48th record high this year posting the best post-election day in its history. The 10yr Treasury yield rose +15.9bps, while the 30yr yield (+17.1bps) posted its biggest jump since March 2020 during the pandemic turmoil. In the meantime, the dollar had its strongest day against the euro since 2016 (+1.89%), whilst Bitcoin (+6.50%) closed at an all-time high of $74,507. So it was a historic day that we’ll no doubt benchmark against for some time when it comes to market movements.

In terms of the politics, we knew in yesterday’s EMR that a Trump victory was incredibly likely, but we got formal confirmation of that by the Associated Press at 10:34 London time, when his victory in the battleground state of Wisconsin was confirmed. We’ll have to wait a bit for the complete final results, but if Trump maintains his lead in the states he’s ahead in, that would put him on 312 electoral college votes, with Kamala Harris on 226. So Trump would slightly beat his 2016 electoral college tally thanks to the addition of Nevada (which he didn’t win on either previous attempt), and this also looks like the first of his three runs where he’s won the nationwide popular vote.

From a market point of view, the other significant development is that it now appears highly likely there’ll be a Republican sweep outcome. The Senate is already confirmed for the Republicans, but the House of Representatives now looks very likely to go their way too, with Polymarket currently placing the chance of a Republican sweep at 94% now.

Of course, the reaction was particularly evident among US Treasuries, which witnessed a sharp selloff right across the curve. That’s because the view is that higher tariffs mean that inflationary pressures will rise, and an extension of the Trump tax cuts under a Republican sweep mean the deficit will go up further in the years ahead. Plus the Fed are less likely to cut rates in this scenario. In fact, higher inflation expectations were clear from how inflation swaps reacted, with the 2yr inflation swap surging by +18.6bps yesterday to 2.62%. And the rate priced in by the Fed’s December 2025 meeting was up +12.0bps on the day to 3.78%.

All those trends led to a significant rise in Treasury yields, sending the 2yr yield (+8.4bps) to a 3-month high of 4.26%, whilst the 10yr yield (+16.0bps) hit a 4-month high of 4.43%. Real yields also rose, with the 10yr real yield (+6.4bps) hitting its own 4-month high of 2.04%. Moreover, as both nominal and real yields moved sharply higher, the dollar index surged by +1.61%, whilst precious metals took a significant hit, with sharp losses for gold (-2.87%) and silver (-4.76%).

Meanwhile for US equities, it was a very strong day, in line in with our strategists’ view that they were likely to rally after the election, irrespective of who won. That helped push the S&P 500 (+2.53%) to an all-time high. The small-cap Russell 2000 (+5.84%) posted its strongest performance since November 2022. In addition, banks outperformed given expectations that Trump would bring deregulation, and the KBW Bank Index (+10.69%) had its best day since November 2020, back when the Pfizer vaccine announcement led global markets to surge. The VIX index of volatility also plummeted, falling -4.22pts on the day to 16.27pts.

But even as many sectors were rallying, it wasn’t all plain sailing. Rates sensitive sectors including consumer staples (-1.57%) and utilities (-0.94%) underperformed within the S&P 500. One significant loser were solar energy firms given the view that Republicans would be less favourable than Democrats towards renewables, and the MAC Global Solar Energy Index (-10.07%) posted its biggest loss since the pandemic turmoil of March 2020. European automakers also slumped given the tariff risk, and the STOXX 600 Automobiles & Parts Index was down -2.29%. That echoed a broader decline across European equities which saw the STOXX 600 (-0.54%) lose ground after the initial rally was tempered by the obvious prospect of tariffs and US exceptionalism over a US tide lifting all boats.

Whilst the US election has been dominating attention, the focus will turn back to the Federal Reserve today, who are announcing their latest policy decision. At their last meeting, they opened a cycle of rate cuts with a larger 50bp move, but for today it’s widely expected that they’ll dial that back to 25bps. That’s the baseline from our US economists as well, who expect the Fed to continue the process of “recalibrating” monetary policy. However, they think Chair Powell is unlikely to provide forward guidance about the policy path ahead. Future reductions are data dependent and they see heightened risks that the Fed skips a rate cut at the December meeting.

Alongside the Fed, the Bank of England will also announce their latest policy decision today, which is their first since the UK government unveiled their Budget last week. As with the Fed, our UK economist expects a 25bp rate cut, which would take Bank Rate down to 4.75%. But in the meantime, UK gilts have continued to sell off, with the spread of 10yr gilt yields over bunds widening by +5.4bps yesterday to 215bps. That’s its widest closing level since September 2022, in the week immediately after the “mini-budget” that triggered market turmoil when Liz Truss was Prime Minister. And in absolute terms, the 10yr gilt yield ticked up another +3.3bps to a one-year high of 4.56%. Bunds (-2.1bps) outperformed, but a more cautious risk tone in Europe saw yields on 10yr OATs (+1.7bps) and BTPs (+6.1bps) move higher.

Asian equity markets are digesting the implications of the Trump win with the Nikkei reversing its initial gains, now trading -0.45% lower. The Hang Seng initially dropped but has since rebounded, climbing +1.16%. The CSI (up +0.70%) and the Shanghai Composite (up +0.88%) are also higher, driven by China’s October export figures significantly surpassing expectations. We also wait news of the latest fiscal stimulus news possibly coming tomorrow. Elsewhere, the KOSPI is up +0.38%, while the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively flat. US equity futures are up around a tenth of a percent and with Treasuries fairly flat.

Focusing back on China, exports grew by +12.7% year-on-year in October, far exceeding the expected +5.0% and marking the fastest growth in over two years, compared to a +2.4% increase the previous month. It’s possible some of it may have been a rebound to typhoon distribution in September. The report also indicated that imports fell by -2.3% year-on-year in October, against an expected -2.0% decline and a +0.3% increase in September. Consequently, the trade surplus unexpectedly expanded to $95.7 billion in October, up from $81.7 billion in September.

Finally, there wasn’t too much data yesterday, although the final services and composite PMIs for October in the Euro Area saw some upgrades from the earlier flash prints. In particular, the Euro Area composite PMI came in at 50.0 (vs. flash 49.7), and the Euro Area services PMI came in at 51.6 (vs. flash 51.2).

To the day ahead now, and the main highlight will be the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, along with Chair Powell’s subsequent press conference. There’s also a policy decision from the Bank of England, and a press conference from Governor Bailey. Otherwise, ECB speakers include Stournaras, Schnabel, Elderson, Escriva, Knot and Lane. Data releases include German industrial production and Euro Area retail sales for September, the German construction PMI for October, and the US weekly initial jobless claims.

2B) European report.

Bunds under pressure following German coalition collapse; FOMC & BoE due – Newsquawk US Market Open

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 05:48 AM

• European bourses are modestly firmer across the board, with US futures also slightly higher, but ultimately taking a breather following the significant strength in the prior session.
• Dollar is giving back recent gains, Antipodeans outperform attempting to claw back post-election losses amid resilience in China.
• USTs are a touch firmer awaiting today’s FOMC meeting, Bunds are the clear underperformer after the German coalition collapses.
• Crude is modestly weaker, paring back some of gains seen in the prior session; XAU benefits from the softer Dollar and base metals gain amid positive price action in China overnight.
• Looking ahead, US Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventory,  BoE & Fed Policy Announcement, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, Elderson, BoE Governor Bailey & Fed Chair Powell.
• Earnings from PG&E Corp, Duke Energy Corp, Becton Dickinson and Co, Air Products and Chemicals Inc, Arista Networks Inc, TransDigm Group Inc, EOG Resources Inc, Motorola Solutions Inc, Airbnb Inc, Fortinet Inc, Trade Desk Inc, Ralph Lauren Corp, Moderna Inc & Warner Bros Discovery Inc.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.6%) began the session on a modestly firmer footing and continued to edge higher as the morning progressed. Today’s EZ-specific docket has been relatively light, but focus ahead will lie on policy announcements from the BoE and the Fed thereafter.
• Region awaiting updates on China’s stimulus and also sensitive to ongoing political uncertainty in Germany.
• European sectors hold a strong positive bias. Basic Resources is by far the clear outperformer, lifted by strength in underlying metals prices after strong Chinese price action overnight. Telecoms is found at the foot of the pile, dragged down by losses in Telefonica (-1.5%) and BT (-5.2%), with the latter also lowering its FY25 guidance.
• US Equity Futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%, RTY +0.3%) are modestly firmer across the board, taking a breather following the significant gains seen in the prior session, where the S&P500 soared to record highs after Trump returned to Presidency.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• USD is giving back some ground to major peers after the DXY sky-rocketed from 103.70 to 105.44 on account of the Trump victory. Attention now turns to today’s FOMC announcement which is expected to see the Fed step down to a 25bps cadence of rate cuts.
• EUR has been able to make some headway vs. the USD. However, today’s peak at 1.0771 is some way off Wednesday’s best at 1.0936. As such, it remains to be seen how much legs the attempted recovery has, particularly given the political instability in Germany with the prospect of a general election in March next year.
• GBP is attempting to undo some of the damage seen during yesterday’s session with Cable returning to a 1.29 handle after delving as low as 1.2835. Expectations are for a 25bps cut via a 7-2 vote split.
• JPY is attempting to recoup some of the lost ground vs. the USD brought on by Trump’s victory. However, progress has been relatively limited with USD/JPY’s current low at 153.66 standing in contrast to Wednesday’s 151.27 trough.
• Antipodeans are both markedly higher and leading the charge against the USD after what was a particularly bruising session on Wednesday given exposure to China. Accordingly, AUD/USD has almost pared a bulk of yesterday’s move that dragged it down from a 0.6644 high to a 0.6511 low.
• SEK is flat following the Riksbank’s decision to cut rates by 50bps as expected (despite some outside calls for a 25bps) reduction and reiterate guidance on rates. EUR/NOK has extended on yesterday’s downside with an in-line decision from the Norges Bank underscoring the Bank’s hawkish credentials relative to most other peers.
• China state-owned banks were seen selling US dollars and buying yuan, according to traders.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1659 vs exp. 7.1679 (prev. 7.0993).
• Brazil Central Bank hiked the Selic rate by 50bps to 11.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB stated the pace of future interest rate adjustments and total magnitude of the cycle will be determined by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target. Furthermore, it stated the pace of future interest rate adjustments and total cycle magnitude will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, the output gap, and the balance of risks, while it added that risks to inflation scenarios are tilted to the upside.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are a touch firmer and holding around 109-20, but has been as low as 109-14. Despite the slight bid, the curve remains steeper with the long-end picking up while the short end pulls back slightly as attention turns to the FOMC later tonight, where a 25bps cut is entirely priced in. On the election, the story is much the same as we continue to await a decision on the House race to determine whether markets are contending with a Trump with or without Congress scenario
• Bunds have recently lost the 131.00 mark, down to a 130.74 low which is clear of Wednesday’s 130.58 trough. The main update has been the sacking of Germany’s Finance Minister Lindner (a debt brake advocate). An update which broke the already-fractured coalition and has seen Chancellor Scholz pencil in an early-January confidence vote, which he will likely lose, paving the way for snap-elections in Q1.
• Gilts are firmer on the session as we count down to the BoE. A meeting which is expected to deliver a 25bps cut with the focus largely on forward guidance. Currently, pivoting the 93.00 mark, picking up slightly from an opening 92.89 base and clear of Wednesday’s 92.53 trough.
• Spain sells EUR 4bln vs exp. EUR 3.5-4.5bln 2.70% 2030, 4.00% 2054 Bono & EUR 0.495bln vs exp. EUR 0.25-0.75bln 0.70% 2033 I/L Bono Auction.
• France sells EUR 12.5bln vs exp. EUR 10.5-12.5bln 3.0% 2034, 4.00% 2035, 0.50% 2044 and 3.25% 2055 OAT Auction.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is modestly weaker and around USD 1.50/bbl off Wednesday’s best but still almost twice that from the troughs. The complex continues to await geopolitical updates out of the Middle East and whether Trump achieves an election sweep.
• Recent attention on a comment from Kann News, which wrote “The preparation for an Iranian attack: the US moved a squadron of F15s to the Middle East – after dozens of fighter jets and 6 B-52 strategic bombers were moved to the region last week” in reference to recent flight radar data.
• Spot gold is a touch firmer, benefitting from the DXY easing below the 105.00 mark. However, magnitudes are relatively slim and XAU remains some way off the virtual double-top from Tuesday & Wednesday at USD 2748-49/oz.
• Base metals are firmer, rebounding after yesterday’s pressure and benefitting from bullish remarks on “green shoots” in China from the BHP CEO and anticipation of Chinese stimulus. Overnight, Chinese exports were particularly strong though desks caution on reading too much into this given looming Trump tariffs (potentially as much as 60% on China).
• NHC updated that the centre of Rafael is moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico with a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding continuing over portions of western Cuba.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• German Industrial Output MM (Sep) -2.5% vs. Exp. -1.0% (Prev. 2.9%)
• German Exports MM SA (Sep) -1.7% vs. Exp. -1.4% (Prev. 1.3%); Imports MM SA (Sep) 2.1% vs. Exp. 0.5% (Prev. -3.4%); Trade Balance, EUR, SA (Sep) 17.0B vs. Exp. 20.9B (Prev. 22.5B)
• EU Retail Sales MM (Sep) 0.5% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.2%, Rev. 1.1%); Retail Sales YY (Sep) 2.9% vs. Exp. 1.3% (Prev. 0.8%, Rev. 2.4%)
• Swedish CPIF Ex Energy Flash YY (Oct) 2.1% vs. Exp. 2.00% (Prev. 2.00%); CPIF Ex Energy Flash MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 0.40%); CPIF Flash MM (Oct) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.30% (Prev. 0.30%); CPI YY Flash (Oct) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.50% (Prev. 1.60%); CPI MM Flash (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.10% (Prev. 0.20%); CPIF Flash YY (Oct) 1.5% vs. Exp. 1.30% (Prev. 1.10%)
• UK Halifax House Prices MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.3%)
• French Non-Farm Payrolls QQ (Q3) -0.1% (prev. 0.0%)
• Spanish Ind Output Cal Adj YY (Sep) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. -0.1%)
• French HCOB Construction PMI (Oct) 42.2 (Prev. 37.9); German HCOB Construction PMI (Oct) 40.2 (Prev. 41.7); Italian HCOB Construction PMI (Oct) 48.2 (Prev. 47.8); EU HCOB Construction PMI (Oct) 43.0 (Prev. 42.1)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• Riksbank cuts its Rate by 50bps as expected to 2.75% (prev. 3.25%); policy rate may also be lowered in December and H1 2025 (in line with what was communicated in September). Click for details.. Riksbank’s Theeden says flash CPI data for October do not change the overall picture; Crown is a risk factor “but we don’t think it will affect out inflation picture”. Says the rate path is more uncertain than usual.
• Norges Bank leaves its Key Policy Rate at 4.50% as expected; “the policy rate will most likely be kept at 4.5 percent to the end of 2024”. Click for details.
• Deutsche Bank lowers its terminal ECB rate forecast to 1.5% from 2.25%
• ECB’s Schnabel says the balance sheet reduction has not left any significant footprint in many areas, thus far.
• ECB survey on Survey on the Access to Finance of Enterprises: firms report moderate tightening of financing conditions shows cost pressures remain widespread across businesses of all sizes. Firms reported little changes regarding the availability of bank loans. However, firms’ need for bank loans has declined moderately, partly due to high internal funds. Substantially fewer firms reported rising bank interest rates on loans, although many indicated a further tightening of other conditions. Firms’ inflation expectations continued to decline, with their median expectations for annual inflation in one, three and five years all standing at 2.9%.
• Joerg Kukies has been appointed German Finance Minister, replacing Lindner.
• Maersk (MAERSKB DC) says overall freight volumes from Europe continue to report a slight 4% Y/Y increase; freight rates continue to decline. Seeing demand in Europe bounce back a lot stronger this year.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Top Trump fundraiser and billionaire hedge fund manager Scott Bessent is reportedly lining himself up for Treasury Secretary and is canvassing for deputies, according to FT.
• Decision Desk’s US House tracker has increased to a 94.7% chance of Republicans winning the US House which would result in a Trump + Republican Congress scenario and it is projecting a 223 vs 212 final House result (218 required for control) in favour of Republicans.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Kann News writes “The preparation for an Iranian attack: the US moved a squadron of F15s to the Middle East – after dozens of fighter jets and 6 B-52 strategic bombers were moved to the region last week” in reference to recent flight radar data.
• Israeli warplanes heavily bombard a number of areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Qahera News.

OTHER

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he congratulated Trump by phone and they agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance cooperation, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it is fully confident the US will continue strong cross-party support for Taiwan going forward and noted that Taiwan-US relations are solid as a rock. It also stated that Taiwan’s government looks forward to continuing to deepen ties with the US under the Trump administration and they will continue to strengthen cooperation on combating economic coercion, while they cannot rule out that during the US transition, China will test the bottom line of the new US President by increasing “grey zone” activities which may not only be limited to military drills but could also involve internet attacks.
• South Korean President Yoon said in a phone call with US President-elect Trump that he looks forward to continuing a close relationship on security and economy, while they agreed to meet in the near future and Trump said the American shipbuilding industry needs South Korea’s help and cooperation. They also agreed on the need for a strong partnership in the Asia-Pacific and discussed North Korea’s ICBM launch, as well as the release of trash balloons into South Korea.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is slightly weaker and traded beneath USD 75k, whilst Ethereum continues to march higher.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks were somewhat mixed albeit with a mostly positive bias as the dust settled from the US election and the Trump trade began to wane after reverberating across global markets with participants bracing for higher US tariffs, while participants also digested Chinese trade data as the attention turned to the incoming central bank rate decisions including from the FOMC.
• ASX 200 was indecisive but eventually finished positive as strength in energy, tech, industrials and financials gradually picked up the slack from weakness in real estate and defensives, while weak Australian trade data capped the upside.
• Nikkei 225 initially surged on the back of a weaker currency but failed to sustain the momentum and gave back its spoils.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp shrugged off the threat of incoming blanket tariffs from the next US administration as participants continued to await a potential fiscal stimulus announcement and as the latest Chinese trade data was mostly better-than-expected with double-digit export growth. Furthermore, the PBoC held a meeting with international financial institutions and affirmed to continue its accommodative monetary policy, while China told banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC held a meeting with international financial institutions including HSBC (5 HK), Standard Chartered (2888 HK) and Citi (C), while it affirmed to continue accommodative monetary policy stance and vowed to strengthen communication with the market. Furthermore, Governor Pan said they are to expand connectivity between domestic and overseas markets.
• China instructed banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese President Xi congratulated Trump on winning the US presidential election and said he hopes that the two sides will respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win-win cooperation. Furthermore, Xi said both sides should strengthen dialogue and that US-China cooperation is a long-term goal, according to Xinhua.
• Japanese top currency diplomat Mimura said they are closely watching market moves with a high sense of urgency and are ready to take appropriate actions for excess FX moves if needed.
• Nissan (7201 JT) is revising its FY24/25 operating profit forecast to JPY 150bln (prev. guided 500bln), withdraws net forecast; to sell a partial stake in Mitsubishi Motors (8058 JT). To reduce the global headcount by 9k & production capacity by 20%.
• Acer (2353 TT) Jan-Sept (TWD): net profit 4.11bln, sales 198.66bln

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Oct) 95.72B vs. Exp. 76.03B (Prev. 81.71B)
• Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Oct) 12.7% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 2.4%); Imports -2.3% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Oct) 679.1B (Prev. 582.6B)
• Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Oct) 11.2% (Prev. 1.6%); Imports YY -3.7% (Prev. -0.5%)
• Japanese Labour Cash Earnings (Sep) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%, Rev. 2.8%)
• Australian Balance on Goods (USD) (Sep) 4,609M vs. Exp. 5,300M (Prev. 5,644M)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports MM (Sep) -4.30% (Prev. -0.20%)
• Australian Goods/Services Imports MM (Sep) -3.10% (Prev. -0.20%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

Dust settles from the election with Chinese trade & German politics in focus into a packed session – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 01:50 AM

• APAC stocks held a mostly positive bias as the dust settled from the US election, participants also digested Chinese trade data.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% on Wednesday.
• DXY has pulled back onto a 104 handle with antipodeans leading the fight back vs. the USD, USD/JPY sits on a 154 handle.
• German Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Lindner and will call for a confidence vote on January 15th which could allow elections by the end of March.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, EZ Retail Sales, US Initial Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inventory, Riksbank, Norges Bank, BoE & Fed Policy Announcements, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel, Elderson, BoE Governor Bailey & Fed Chair Powell, Supply from Spain & France.
• Earnings from Hochtief, Munich Re, Heidelberg Materials, Rheinmetall, Delivery Hero, Daimler Truck, Lanxess, Euronext, Engie, SES, Veolia Environment, Legrand, Zealand Pharma, GN Store Nord, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena, Azimut Holding, Leonardo, Nexi, Cellnex, Grifols, Telefonica, BT Group, Hiscox, Taylor Wimpey, National Grid, J Sainsbury, ITV, Hikma Pharmaceuticals, ArcelorMittal, PG&E Corp, Duke Energy Corp, Becton Dickinson and Co, Air Products and Chemicals Inc, Airbnb Inc, Ralph Lauren Corp, Moderna Inc & Warner Bros Discovery Inc.

SNAPSHOT

More Newsquawk in 3 steps:

1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports

2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)

3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day

US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks surged while the Dollar rallied and bonds plummeted, with bonds and the dollar posting the largest intraday moves since the COVID-era in response to Trump’s victory in the US Presidential Election as Trump proposals of tax cuts supported stocks while the inflationary impacts of tariffs and increased spending (and increased issuance) weighed on T-notes and boosted the buck.
• SPX +2.53% at 5,929, NDX +2.74% at 20,781, DJIA +3.57% at 43,730, RUT +5.84% at 2,393.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• US President Biden spoke with Trump and is committed to a smooth transition, while he invited Trump to meet with him in the White House.
• US VP Harris called Trump to concede the election and later delivered a concession speech.
• Top Trump fundraiser and billionaire hedge fund manager Scott Bessent is reportedly lining himself up for Treasury Secretary and is canvassing for deputies, according to FT.
• Decision Desk’s US House tracker has increased to a 94.7% chance of Republicans winning the US House which would result in a Trump + Republican Congress scenario and it is projecting a 223 vs 212 final House result (218 required for control) in favour of Republicans.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks were somewhat mixed albeit with a mostly positive bias as the dust settled from the US election and the Trump trade began to wane after reverberating across global markets with participants bracing for higher US tariffs, while participants also digested Chinese trade data as the attention turned to the incoming central bank rate decisions including from the FOMC.
• ASX 200 was indecisive but eventually finished positive as strength in energy, tech, industrials and financials gradually picked up the slack from weakness in real estate and defensives, while weak Australian trade data capped the upside.
• Nikkei 225 initially surged on the back of a weaker currency but failed to sustain the momentum and gave back its spoils.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp shrugged off the threat of incoming blanket tariffs from the next US administration as participants continued to await a potential fiscal stimulus announcement and as the latest Chinese trade data was mostly better-than-expected with double-digit export growth. Furthermore, the PBoC held a meeting with international financial institutions and affirmed to continue its accommodative monetary policy, while China told banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth.
• US equity futures (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.3%, RTY +0.3%) gradually extended on gains after rallying yesterday on the Trump election victory.
• European equity futures are indicative of a firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 1.4% on Wednesday.

FX

• DXY took a breather after briefly rallying above the 105.00 level on what was the largest daily move in the dollar since March 2020 owing to the Trump election victory and as Republicans also took control of the Senate. Furthermore, the House remains up for grabs but is seen as likely to remain a Republican majority with participants viewing Trump’s policies of tariffs, tax cuts, less regulation and spending, as supportive of an inflationary theme, while the attention now turns to the FOMC decision.
• EUR/USD found some slight respite from the recent heavy selling pressure which was spurred by the dollar strength and amid concerns related to tariffs, defence and Ukraine in a second Trump presidency, while the single currency was also not helped by political turbulence in Germany after Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Lindner over budget disputes and will call for a confidence vote on January 15th which could allow elections by the end of March.
• GBP/USD partially recouped lost ground and returned to the 1.2900 handle although the rebound was contained as participants also awaited the BoE rate decision in which the central bank is expected to deliver a 25bps cut.
• USD/JPY held on to most of the prior day’s gains after coat-tailing on the dollar strength and a surge in US yields owing to the anticipation of incoming US inflationary policies from Trump 2.0, with support seen around the recently reclaimed 154.00 level.
• Antipodeans outperformed and continued to claw back post-election losses amid resilience seen in China.
• China state-owned banks were seen selling US dollars and buying yuan, according to traders.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1659 vs exp. 7.1679 (prev. 7.0993).
• Brazil Central Bank hiked the Selic rate by 50bps to 11.25%, as expected, with the decision unanimous. BCB stated the pace of future interest rate adjustments and total magnitude of the cycle will be determined by the firm commitment to reaching the inflation target. Furthermore, it stated the pace of future interest rate adjustments and total cycle magnitude will depend on inflation dynamics, expectations and projections, the output gap, and the balance of risks, while it added that risks to inflation scenarios are tilted to the upside.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures traded sideways, attempting to regain composure following the post-election selling across the curve in response to the incoming Trump presidency, while a strong 30yr auction also provided some brief support.
• Bund futures remained lacklustre after recent fluctuations and amid political uncertainty in Germany where the coalition collapsed after Chancellor Scholz sacked Finance Minister Lindner and announced to hold a confidence vote in mid-January.
• 10yr JGB futures tracked recent downside in peers with demand also constrained after weaker 10yr JGB auction results.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures marginally gained after the prior day’s choppy performance as traders digested recent dollar strength, a slightly larger-than-expected crude inventory build and with some output in the US Gulf of Mexico shut-in due to hurricane Rafael.
• BSEE stated that 17.4% of oil production and 7% of nat gas output in the US Gulf of Mexico is shut-in due to hurricane Rafael. NHC later updated that the centre of Rafael is moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico with a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and flash flooding continuing over portions of western Cuba.
• Spot gold languished beneath the USD 2,700/oz level after the Trump election victory underpinned the dollar and yields.
• Copper futures partially nursed recent losses in some mild reprieve from yesterday’s aggressive slide.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin continued its gradual pullback from record levels with prices back beneath the USD 75,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC held a meeting with international financial institutions including HSBC (5 HK), Standard Chartered (2888 HK) and Citi (C), while it affirmed to continue accommodative monetary policy stance and vowed to strengthen communication with the market. Furthermore, Governor Pan said they are to expand connectivity between domestic and overseas markets.
• China instructed banks to cut interbank deposit rates to boost growth, according to Bloomberg.
• Chinese President Xi congratulated Trump on winning the US presidential election and said he hopes that the two sides will respect each other, coexist peacefully, and achieve win-win cooperation. Furthermore, Xi said both sides should strengthen dialogue and that US-China cooperation is a long-term goal, according to Xinhua.
• Japanese top currency diplomat Mimura said they are closely watching market moves with a high sense of urgency and are ready to take appropriate actions for excess FX moves if needed.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Trade Balance (USD)(Oct) 95.72B vs. Exp. 76.03B (Prev. 81.71B)
• Chinese Exports YY (USD)(Oct) 12.7% vs. Exp. 5.2% (Prev. 2.4%)
• Chinese Imports YY (USD)(Oct) -2.3% vs. Exp. -1.5% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Chinese Trade Balance (CNY)(Oct) 679.1B (Prev. 582.6B)
• Chinese Exports YY (CNY)(Oct) 11.2% (Prev. 1.6%)
• Chinese Imports YY (CNY)(Oct) -3.7% (Prev. -0.5%)
• Japanese Labour Cash Earnings (Sep) 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 3.0%, Rev. 2.8%)
• Australian Balance on Goods (USD) (Sep) 4,609M vs. Exp. 5,300M (Prev. 5,644M)
• Australian Goods/Services Exports MM (Sep) -4.30% (Prev. -0.20%)
• Australian Goods/Services Imports MM (Sep) -3.10% (Prev. -0.20%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• Israeli official said the US transition period may provide Israel with an opportunity to strike the Iranian nuclear programme, according to Bloomberg.
• Israeli Army Chief of Staff announced the country’s forces should prepare for the expansion of ground operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to Iran International.
• Israeli warplanes heavily bombard a number of areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Qahera News.
• Hezbollah said it targeted a military base south of Israel’s Tel Aviv “for the first time” with a swarm of drones, according to a statement.

OTHER

• Ukrainian President Zelensky said he congratulated Trump by phone and they agreed to maintain close dialogue and advance cooperation, according to Reuters.
• Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry said it is fully confident the US will continue strong cross-party support for Taiwan going forward and noted that Taiwan-US relations are solid as a rock. It also stated that Taiwan’s government looks forward to continuing to deepen ties with the US under the Trump administration and they will continue to strengthen cooperation on combating economic coercion, while they cannot rule out that during the US transition, China will test the bottom line of the new US President by increasing “grey zone” activities which may not only be limited to military drills but could also involve internet attacks.
• South Korean President Yoon said in a phone call with US President-elect Trump that he looks forward to continuing a close relationship on security and economy, while they agreed to meet in the near future and Trump said the American shipbuilding industry needs South Korea’s help and cooperation. They also agreed on the need for a strong partnership in the Asia-Pacific and discussed North Korea’s ICBM launch, as well as the release of trash balloons into South Korea.
• Panama’s maritime authority said they will cancel flags on four LNG vessels sanctioned by the US over links with Russia’s Novatek.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• ECB’s Villeroy said a Trump administration will likely lead to a higher deficit and rate cuts will continue.
• German Chancellor Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Lindner over budget disputes, according to Reuters citing sources. It was also reported that Scholz announced he will call for a confidence vote on January 15th which could allow elections by the end of March and he will talk to opposition leader Merz, while he noted the economy cannot wait until after the elections.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE

END

3C JAPAN

3D. CHINA

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

GERMANY/

German government collapses. Mass strikes grinding their economy to a halt.

(zero hedge)

German Government Collapses As Mass Strikes Grind Economy To A Halt

Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 11:25 PM

It’s not a good day for the establishment. Just hours after Kamala Harris – and the Democrats – staggering loss which ushered in Trump as president for the third time and gave Republicans a sweep of Congress, Germany’s three-party ruling coalition which had been on the verge of collapse for months, imploded on Wednesday evening after Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced he will fire Finance Minister Christian Lindner over persistent rifts on spending and economic reforms, a move that paves the way for a snap election at the end of March.

The firing ejects Lindner’s fiscally conservative Free Democratic Party  (FDP) from the troubled coalition, forcing Scholz to call for a confidence vote that he said would take place on January 15. If Scholz loses that vote, which is virtually certain, a snap election is set to take place by March.

The collapse of Germany’s government came just hours after Donald Trump’s clear win in the U.S. election, a result that stunned German political leaders, who depend on American military might for their country’s defense and fear Trump’s tariff policies will hobble German industry.

“Dear fellow citizens, I would have liked to have spared you this difficult decision, especially in times like these, when uncertainty is growing,” said Scholz – viewed as the weakest German chancellor in decades – in a statement at the chancellery.

But the rifts inside the coalition proved too great to overcome. Caught in the middle of an impossible battle, Lindner and his conservative FDP insisted that the German government stick to strict spending rules and cut taxes, even as his left-wing coalition partners wanted to maintain social spending and boost German industry through economic stimulus.

“All too often, Minister Lindner has blocked laws in an inappropriate manner,” said Scholz in a statement. “Too often he has engaged in petty party-political tactics. Too often he has broken my trust.”

Scholz said he had offered Lindner a deal to create an emergency fund to aid Ukraine that would exist outside Germany’s regular budget, but Lindner refused to participate in such fiscal gimmicks that saw the UK recently redefine the nature of “debt.”

“Olaf Scholz has long failed to recognize the need for a new economic awakening in our country,” said Lindner. “He has long played down the economic concerns of our citizens.”

As Politico reports, the FDP is the smallest party in the coalition and is now polling at only four percent — below the threshold needed to make it into the German parliament — meaning its leaders have been mulling a coalition break in order to save their political futures.

Crisis talks in the coalition of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party, the Greens and Lindner’s Free Democratic Party had come to a head after the FDP issued a paper with demands for liberal economic reforms that were difficult for the other two parties to accept.

Lindner’s recent policy paper, leaked to the media last week, called for tax cuts and a scaling back of climate policies in order to stimulate economic growth — both positions that put the party at odds with his coalition partners.

Central to the coalition disagreements was the adoption of the 2025 budget by parliament in which a gap of at least €2.4 billion, and potentially far more, needs to be filled, as well as an agreement on measures to revamp the country’s ailing economy.

The government crisis comes at the worst possible time: Trump’s victory, which anticipates imposing significant tariffs on German exports, is expected to put heavy pressure on Europe’s largest economy. An analysis from the German Economic Institute (IW) estimates that a new trade war could cost Germany €180 billion over Trump’s four years in office.

Many in Germany had hoped that the victory of Donald Trump in the U.S. election earlier in the day would force the coalition to hold together over fears that the incoming president would give Europe’s biggest economy a hard ride, targeting its all-important car industry in a trade war.

Ultimately, however, not even the looming threat of Trump proved enough for the fractious parties to put aside their differences.

Sensing that the economy is about to go from bad to much worse, last Tuesday – amid mounting concern about the imminent collapse of the EU’s largest manufacturing economy – Germany’s giant trade union IG Metall launched strikes in the nation’s metal and electrical industries in an attempt to win higher wages. According to the tabloid Bild, employees began walking off the job during the night shift, including at Volkswagen’s plant in the city of Osnabruck, where workers worry the plant may be closed.

Elsewhere, around 200 employees of the battery manufacturer Clarios went on strike in Hanover, Lower Saxony, carrying torches and union flags, the outlet wrote.

Meanwhile, in Hildesheim, Lower Saxony, around 400 employees, including those at Jensen GmbH, KSM Castings Group, Robert Bosch, Waggonbau Graaff and ZF CV Systems Hannover, have reportedly halted operations.

Protests are also expected at BMW and Audi plants in Bavaria. Work is to be stopped nationwide during the course of the day, the tabloid wrote.

”The fact that production lines are now at a standstill and offices are empty is the responsibility of the employers,” IG Metall’s negotiator and district manager Thorsten Groger stated, as quoted by Deutsche Welle.

IG Metall is demanding a 7% pay raise compared to the 3.6% raise over a period of 27 months offered by employers’ associations, due to soaring inflation. The companies call such demands unrealistic.

The mass strikes come as Volkswagen announced on Monday it would close “at least” three of its ten plants in Germany, lay off tens of thousands of staff and downsize remaining plants in the country. The measures are part of a cost-cutting drive, the conglomerate said earlier. Oliver Blume, chief executive of the VW Group, has cited a “difficult economic environment” and “failing competitiveness of the German economy” as factors behind the decision.

The German Association of the Automotive Industry warned last year that the country was “dramatically losing its international competitiveness” due to soaring energy costs.

A recent survey by the VDA auto industry association suggested that the reshuffling of the German car industry could lead to 186,000 job losses by 2035, roughly a quarter of which have already occurred.

END

UK

Another B of E cut in rates of .25% but signals no more and that was bullish for the pound.

(zerohedge)

Pound Jumps After BOE’s Last Rate Cut Of 2024, Warns Reeves Budget Will Spike Inflation

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 09:06 AM

Just hours before the Fed’s second rate cut this cycle, the Bank of England cut interest rates to 4.75% – as all economists expected – its second rate hike this cycle (it kept rates on hold at its previous meeting in September, following a reduction in August)…

…. after inflation fell to a three-year low in September; however the cut was seen as hawkish by the market, sending the pound up 0.7% to session highs after Governor Andrew Bailey signaled that a further move is unlikely before early 2025 as rates are likely to fall only “gradually from here” and that last week’s UK budget will lift inflation by just under half a percentage point at its peak.

witter.com/bankofengland/status/1854494197245460558?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctw

“We need to make sure inflation stays close to target, so we can’t cut interest rates too quickly or by too much,” said BoE governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday. “But if the economy evolves as we expect, it’s likely that interest rates will continue to fall gradually from here,” he added.

As the FT notes, this week’s decision suggests the BoE is taking a cautious approach to lowering rates as it weighs the impact of chancellor Reeves’ inflationary Budget last week, which aggressively loosened fiscal policy. The outlook has also been affected by Donald Trump’s victory in this week’s US election, particularly because of his support for higher tariffs, which many economists argue could stoke inflation.

The BoE said the Budget would increase consumer price inflation by just under 0.5 percentage points at its peak compared with previous projections, as well as boosting GDP by 0.75 per cent in a year’s time.

Inflation hit 1.7% in September, the first time it has dipped below the BoE’s 2% target since 2021, but the central bank expects it to increase in coming quarters. Partly as a result of the Budget, the BoE considers that inflation will now take longer than previously expected to return to target, reaching 2.2% in two years’ time before falling to 1.8% by the end of the following year. At the same time, growth will pick up from 1% this year to 1.5% in 2025 the BOE predicted, before easing back to 1.25 per cent in 2026.

In an indication of the Budget’s impact on UK businesses, J Sainsbury warned on Thursday that Reeves’ changes would be “inflationary”, as it complained that they would subject it to an “unexpected” and “significant” £140mn “barrage of costs.” BT also described the Budget as a “new inflationary pressure”, as it said it would now be hit by a £100mn increase in costs.

As we discussed previously, the Budget unveiled a £40bn increase in taxes, most of which will come from national insurance paid by employers. It also boosted government borrowing by an average of £28bn a year over the course of the parliament as Reeves increases.

The BOE’s inflation outlook prompted traders to trim their expectations of a further quarter-point cut at the BoE’s next meeting in December from about 30% to about 20%, which in turn led to tightening in financial conditions and sent the pound to session highs, up 0.7% on the day against the dollar at $1.297. The 10-year gilt yield was steady at 4.54 per cent.

Hussain Mehdi, a strategist at HSBC Asset Management, said he now expected a “fairly shallow easing cycle” that would put upward pressure on bond yields, in part due to the Budget’s impact on inflation.

end

 

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

END

ISRAEL/USA/MIDDLE EAST

Scorecard on regional leaders reacting to Trump’s win:

Middle East At War: How Are Regional Leaders Reacting To Trump’s Victory?

Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 04:40 PM

The Middle East remains on edge, and Israel is still at war on multiple fronts – in Gaza, and in Lebanon, and with the Houthis in the Red Sea region and Yemen. Iran is still threatening to retaliate against Israel, and Iraqi paramilitaries supported from Tehran are reportedly readying for battle. Israeli airstrikes on Syria have been ongoing for days. US assets from warships to long-range bombers are also parked in the region, ready for anything.

The region could explode into bigger escalation at any moment, and tit-for-tat big attacks between Hezbollah and Israel’s military will likely persist through January, when Trump steps into the oval office. Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel have not relented, and neither have massive Israeli strikes on Beirut and eastern and southern Lebanon.

In his victory speech, Trump acknowledged the regional hot wars playing out in various parts of the globe, two of which have involved US participation by proxy. “They said ‘He will start a war,’ I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars,” Trump said.

Below are the reactions of various Middle East leaders to the Trump victory…

Israel

To the surprise of no one, Israel is overjoyed that Donald Trump will be the next president of the United States. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was actually the very first world leader to issue a hearty congratulations to Trump. 

“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” he said in an English-language statement. “Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America. This is a huge victory!” he said.

Netanyahu’s hardline and hawkish National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir simply wrote on social meda “Yesssss”.

Turkey

“I congratulate my friend Donald Trump, who won the presidential election in the US after a great struggle and was re-elected as the President,” said Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan via X.

“In this new period that will begin with the elections of the American people, I hope that Turkiye-US relations will strengthen, that regional and global crises and wars, especially the Palestinian issue and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end; I believe that more efforts will be made for a more just world,” Erdogan added. 

He declared his hope that “the elections will be beneficial for our friendly and allied people in the US and for all of humanity.”

Iran

Iranian government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, said “US elections are not really our business. Our policies are steady and don’t change based on individuals. We made the necessary predictions before, and there will not be a change in people’s livelihoods,” in reference to US sanctions on Iran.

Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Deputy Commander in Chief Ali Fadavi on Wednesday repeated that Tehran is ready for a confrontation with Israel.

Hamas

Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri said “We urge Trump to learn from [US President Joe] Biden’s mistakes” and said that the new president will be “tested” on his statements about being able to end the war in Gaza.

He also pointed out past statements of Trump and/or his campaign officials about US support to Israel not being endless. Interestingly Trump had received record Arab-American support in swing states like Michigan, amid anger at the Biden-Harris administration for its blank check support to Israel even as tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians die.

“Our position regarding the new US administration will depend on its stances and practical actions towards our Palestinian people, their legitimate rights, and their just cause,” the group, designated by the US as a terror organization, additionally said.

“The elected US President is urged to heed the voices that have risen from within American society itself for more than a year since the Zionist aggression on Gaza, rejecting occupation and genocide, and objecting to support and bias toward [Israel].”

It’ll be interesting to watch the immediate foreign policy shifts following the Trump victory. Especially in the Middle East.

Remember, the Abraham Accords were signed under President Trump in 2020. Israel/Saudi Arabia normalization is likely under the new administration.

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) November 6, 2024

Palestinian Authority

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas congratulated Trump and expressed hope for regional peace and stability based on the future declaration of a Palestinian state and equal right and freedoms.

“We will remain steadfast in our commitment to peace, and we are confident that the United States will support, under your leadership, the legitimate aspirations of the Palestinian people,” Abbas said.

Saudi Arabia

King Salman and MBS sent issued separate formal diplomatic cables congratulating Trump. MbS and Trump have long been close, despite during Trump’s first term the Jamal Khashoggi murder creating tensions and some distance between Riyadh and Washington.

King Salman also praised the “historically close [bilateral] relations that everyone seeks to strengthen and develop in all fields.”

Iraq

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani formally congratulated Trump. “We affirm Iraq’s firm commitment to strengthening bilateral relations with the United States on the basis of mutual respect and common interests,” he said.

“We look forward to this new phase being the beginning of deepening cooperation between our two countries in various fields, which will contribute to achieving sustainable development and benefit the two friendly peoples.”

END

ISRAEL/SAUDI ARABIA/USA

If Biden does not do it, Jared Kushner will

(Libertarian Institute)

Biden Still Seeks Bilateral Deal With Saudis Before Trump Enters Oval

Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 03:45 PM

Via The Libertarian Institute

Before President Joe Biden leaves office in January, he will seek to sign a bilateral security agreement with Saudi Arabia, according to a new report. The deal comes after the Biden administration failed to ink a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. 

Barak Ravid of Axios reported on Tuesday that “the US and Saudi Arabia are discussing a possible security agreement that wouldn’t involve a broader deal with Israel.”

“The agreement wouldn’t be the full defense treaty the U.S. and Saudi Arabia were discussing but Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) and the White House still want to reach a security agreement before President Biden leaves office in January,” the report continues.

As a candidate, Biden ran on a platform of holding the Gulf Kingdom responsible for the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the Saudi slaughter in Yemen that claimed around 400,000 lives. 

While the Biden administration announced some restrictions on weapon sales to Saudi Arabia, which were later lifted, top US officials sought to expand the Donald Trump-era Abraham Accords with Riyadh.

The Accords are a series of agreements where the US promised arms and other benefits to Muslim nations that normalized their relationship with Israel. 

Prior to the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel and Tel Aviv’s onslaught in Gaza, Washington was nearing a pact with Tel Aviv and Riyadh that would see Saudi Arabia receive weapons, a mutual defense treaty, and nuclear technology from the US. 

The Israeli genocide against Gaza has made any deal impossible. Over the past year, the White House has sought to expand the Israel-Saudi normalization pact to include the rebuilding of Gaza.

However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused any ceasefire in Gaza, scuttling the changes of any deal with the Kingdom. 

It’s unclear why the Biden administration would seek to strengthen bilateral security ties with Riyadh with the president’s short time left in office. Saudi Arabia has an abysmal human rights record. 

.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1854162246819033595

While Biden has been so far unable to get a deal done between Israel and Saudi Arabia, Beijing was able to broker an agreement between Tehran and Riyadh. Recently, the Saudi and Iranian military conducted bilateral drills in the Gulf of Oman.

END

ISRAEL//HEZBOLLAH

Times of India

updates on Israel/Iran/Lebanon

Israel-Iran War Live Updates: Israel strikes on Lebanon kill 40 people around Baalbek, says health ministry

Israel-Iran war Live Updates: Hezbollah announced on Wednesday that their militant force, numbering in tens of thousands, stood prepared to engage with Israel. They emphasized that the American electoral outcome would not influence the ongoing conflict in Lebanon.

The organisation’s leadership, backed by Iran, issued a statement indicating that all Israeli territories were potential targets. The Israeli defence forces reported approximately 120 projectiles crossing the border on Wednesday.

Following an evacuation notice, Israeli forces conducted military operations in Hezbollah’s primary stronghold in southern Beirut.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has persisted since September’s end, when Israeli forces expanded their Gaza operations to secure their northern Lebanese frontier.

Hezbollah initiated minor cross-border strikes against Israel in the previous year, demonstrating solidarity with their Palestinian associates Hamas after the October 7, 2023 incident.

Peace negotiations regarding the Gaza conflict, which began with the Hamas assault, remain unsuccessful. The Lebanese conflict has resulted in nearly 2,000 casualties, according to Lebanese health ministry data compiled by AFP.

“We have tens of thousands of trained resistance combatants” prepared for combat, stated Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem during a televised address commemorating 40 days since his predecessor Hassan Nasrallah’s death in a military strike.

The broadcast occurred after Donald Trump’s electoral victory announcement, though it was pre-recorded.

Qassem indicated that the electoral outcome between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris would not affect potential ceasefire arrangements in Lebanon.

“We don’t base our expectations for a halt of the aggression on political developments,” he stated.

“Whether Harris wins or Trump wins, it means nothing to us.

“What will stop this… war is the battlefield” he declared, referencing the southern Lebanon combat and Hezbollah’s strikes against Israel.

Earlier that Wednesday, Hezbollah claimed responsibility for targeting a military installation near Israel’s primary airport, adjacent to Tel Aviv’s commercial centre. Israeli airport authorities confirmed this incident did not affect operations.

END

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

More rhetoric from the Hezbollah chief that is trapped. Iran will not help them

(JerusalemPost)

Hezbollah Chief: “We Are Ready For A War Of Attrition” With Israel

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Via The Cradle

Hezbollah’s new leader Naim Qassem said during his second speech as secretary-general that the resistance group is in a “defensive state” and will thwart Israeli plans for Lebanon, vowing that nowhere in Israel is safe from missile and drone attacks.

“We have now reached an Israeli aggressive war on Lebanon that has been going on for a month and ten days. It is no longer important how the war started or what pretexts caused it. What is important is that we are facing an Israeli aggression,” Qassem said. The Lebanese group is “now in a defensive state” and is confronting “this aggression and its expansionist goals,” he added. 

These goals include “ending Hezbollah’s presence,” while “the second step is to occupy Lebanon, even if from a distance – from the air, and by threatening, and making Lebanon similar to the West Bank,” referring to Tel Aviv’s ambition for unrestricted access to Lebanese territory and airspace. “The third is to [redraw] the map of the [region].”

“Netanyahu wanted these steps, and he started his war on Lebanon to accomplish the first step.”

Qassem praised his fighters on the ground, confronting Israeli army incursions into south Lebanon, which began at the very start of last month and have since completely failed to achieve Tel Aviv’s goal of pushing away Hezbollah from the border and securing the return of settlers to its north. 

He said Israel thought the pager terror attacks and the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah would “make it easier for him to invade Lebanon.”

“They brought five divisions to the border, consisting of 65,000 soldiers and officers … the Israeli army wanted to reach the Litani River but faced a firm resistance,” Qassem said, noting the failure of the ground operations. “We believe that only one thing can stop this aggressive war, which is the battlefield – both on the border and against the Israeli depth,” referring to daily rocket, missile, and drone attacks. 

“There is no place in the Israeli entity that is off-limits to Hezbollah planes or missiles,” he warned. He added that Hezbollah’s capabilities are in good shape. “Our only choice is to prevent Israel from achieving its goals,” he added, noting that Hezbollah “cannot be defeated” as long as “justice” and “God” are on its side. 

The Hezbollah chief also commented on the US election. He clarified that Hezbollah does not depend on regional or international politics, elections, or who will end up as president in the US, but rather depends only on the battlefield.

“We are not waiting on the American elections; whether Kamala Harris or Donald Trump succeeds, they have no value to us… we do not rely on general political movements, and we do not rely on Netanyahu being satisfied with some gains, no, we will rely on the field, and we will make Netanyahu fully realize that he is a loser in the field and not a winner,” he said. 

“We have tens of thousands of trained resistance combatants [who are ready to fight],” he affirmed, revealing that Hezbollah has not yet employed the entirety of its ground force.

He reiterated that any ceasefire talks must be based on stopping the war and respecting Lebanon’s sovereignty – something that Netanyahu has publicly stood against. He praised the “political resistance” of Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who has rejected Israeli terms presented to Beirut by White House envoy Amos Hochstein. 

“We will not beg for halting the aggression, and we will make the enemy ask for it … we are ready for a war of attrition no matter how long it lasts … Let [Israel] take its time.”

Hezbollah claimed responsibility for launching a salvo of advanced missiles at the Tzrifin Israeli military base, near Ben Gurion Airport. The attack coincides with the appointment of a new Israeli defense minister, the election of a new U.S. president, and 40 days since the… pic.twitter.com/ZozIAdSJFK

— Ali Hashem علي هاشم (@alihashem_tv) November 6, 2024

Qassem also commented on the recent Israeli landing operation and kidnapping in north Lebanon’s Batroun, in which commandos snatched Lebanese naval officer Imad Amhaz while he was attending a maritime training course. 

“I demand that the Lebanese army, which is responsible for protecting the waters, issue a statement explaining the reason behind the Batroun operation.” The army must immediately “inform us of its stance on the incident,” he said, questioning the potential role of the UNIFIL force in Lebanon and its German naval contingent. 

Qassem praised Nasrallah as the “pioneer” of Hezbollah’s “era of victories,” saying he “built a resistance … that unites all segments of society.” Nasrallah will “continue with us and we will continue with him, and the resistance will remain and grow and grow.”

The speech came hours after Hezbollah targeted a military base near Tel Aviv’s Ben Gurion Airport with a barrage of missiles, causing damage in its vicinity and a temporary halt in air traffic.

ISRAEL/HAMAS/IRAN

end

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/

Sergeant Ariel Sosnov Sasonov killed in Lebanon combat

Sergeant  Sasonov was from Jerusalem and served in the 605th Engineering Battalion, 188th ‘Barak’ Brigade.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 7, 2024 06:04Updated: NOVEMBER 7, 2024 06:20

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-827938&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241106_8a834a412c354997d0e267bb94432c2649284f58&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Sergeant Ariel Sosnov Sasonov, aged 20 years old, was killed in combat in Lebanon on Tuesday, the IDF announced on Thursday morning.

Sergeant Sasonov was from Jerusalem and served in the 605th Engineering Battalion, 188th ‘Barak’ Brigade.

He was post-humorously promoted from the rank of Corporal to Sergeant.

Additionally, the IDF added that in an unrelated incident, a soldier in the 90th ‘Nahshon’ Battalion of the Kfir Brigade was severely wounded during combat in the northern Gaza Strip on Wednesday.

The soldier was evacuated to a hospital to receive medical treatment. 

According to the IDF’s tally, the death of Sergeant Sasonov raises the total of soldiers killed on or since October 7 of last year to 780. 

END

ISRAEL HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH THURSDAY MORNING

IDF operates in Beit Lahiya in Gaza and pounds Hezbollah in Lebanon

(JerusalemPost)

IDF launches op. in Beit Lahiya in Gaza, IAF pounds Hezbollah in Lebanon

Over the past day, the IAF targeted over 110 terror-related sites linked to Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 7, 2024 09:05

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3795797&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-827942IDF troops operate in southern Lebanon. November 7, 2024. (Credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT).

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-827942&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241106_8a834a412c354997d0e267bb94432c2649284f58&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

IDF troops launched operations in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip after intelligence information pointed to potential terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area, the IDF reported on Thursday.

The military added that it had facilitated the secure evacuation of civilians from the area.

In parallel, in Jabalya, soldiers carried out operations, eliminating around 50 terrorists over the past day.

In Rafah, in southern Gaza, IDF troops killed terrorists and demolished terrorist infrastructure, the military noted.

In coordination with the Israel Air Force (IAF), soldiers killed via aircraft fire an armed terrorist who was advancing toward the troops. 

IDF operates in Lebanon

The IAF struck over 110 terror-related sites linked to Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, of which approximately 20 sites were located in Lebanon’s Baalbek area and north of the Litani River. 

Some 60 Hezbollah terrorists were eliminated in the attacks, the IDF added. 

The IDF also demolished a weapons storage facility, a military structure, and a launcher from which projectiles had been fired toward Israel’s center.

An additional rocket launcher which posed a threat to the troops in the area was also destroyed. 

END

ISRAEL/HAMAS

IDF eliminates two terrorists involved in October 7 Massacre

During the mission, several terrorists emerged from the tunnels and were neutralized by ground forces, with some eliminated through airstrikes.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 7, 2024 18:53Updated: NOVEMBER 7, 2024 18:56

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-828063&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241107_56a3a93aa311e0663ccd8573f72e877c219ca74b&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

IDF eliminated two terrorists involved in the October 7 Massacre during a focused operation in the southern Gaza Strip, the IDF reported on Thursday evening.

In recent weeks, the Southern Brigade and Bedouin Special Forces (585) conducted a focused operation in the southern Gaza Strip to dismantle terror infrastructure and underground tunnels, the IDF reported.

The operation, which began with airstrikes conducted by the Israel Air Force, was aimed at targeting and destroying anti-tank positions, booby-trapped buildings, and observation posts posing risks to ground forces.

As part of a coordinated effort, the IDF noted in their report, the Gaza Division’s engineering unit, alongside the Yahalom unit and Shin Bet, executed a complex operation that uncovered and destroyed two offensive underground tunnels stretching over two kilometers.

Terrorists exit tunnels

These tunnels contained about twenty exit shafts, some booby-trapped, with weapons discovered inside. During the mission, several terrorists emerged from the tunnels and were neutralized by ground forces, with some eliminated through airstrikes.

Two of the terrorists killed were involved in the October 7 massacre: Baha Abu Kreshin, commander of the Nukhba force in the Shabura Battalion, and Mohammad Ibrahim Stry, a Hamas operative.

END

ISRAEL/IRAN/

What happened to Iran’s bragging about ‘retaliation’ against Israel?- analysis

Iran has been blustering about another round of attacks on Israel since late October. The Tehran regime hasn’t gone completely silent but the rumors of an attack on Nov 5 seemed to vanish.

By SETH J. FRANTZMANNOVEMBER 7, 2024 14:50Updated: NOVEMBER 7, 2024 15:54

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-828011&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241107_56a3a93aa311e0663ccd8573f72e877c219ca74b&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Before the US elections on November 5, there were rumors spread on social media that Iran might attack Israel the night of the election.

This might make sense for Iran because the US would be focused on domestic politics, and Iran might feel it can get away with a large and complex multi-front attack on Israel. However, the Iranians didn’t attack. This is despite the fact they have been bragging since late October that they would “retaliate” against Israel for Israel’s airstrikes on Iran.

Iran knows that it is the aggressor. It attacked Israel in April. It attacked again on October 1, raining down 180 ballistic missiles on Israel. Israel retaliated with precision strikes in Iran on October 26.

Iran has been blustering about another round of attacks on Israel since late October. The Tehran regime hasn’t gone completely silent. However, the rumors of an attack on November 5 seemed to vanish. In addition rumors of a “drone swarm” launched from Iraq, Syria and Yemen also vanished after the rumors were spread on IRGC channels on Telegram on November 4.

People in Tehran aren’t completely silent. The deputy commander of the IRGC, Ali Fadavi, put out a threatening statement on November 6. However, he is not the level of officer that one would expect to find serious threats. One would expect more chatter from the Iranians. Where did the chatter go? Iranian state media appears temporarily focused on other issues, such as diplomatic outreach.

Iran media 

What are IRGC media channels such as Tasnim talking about these days? Tasnim has articles about Hezbollah’s long-range missiles. Recently, Hezbollah has increased rocket fire targeting long-range targets in Israel. It has also been firing large numbers of rockets at the north.

The IRGC is also focused on a counter-insurgency campaign in Balochistan province in Iran near the Pakistan border. Fadavi, for all his bluster, has been speaking about using Iranian military hospitals to serve the citizens of Iran.

In November, Tasnim also had an article about an Iranian missile expert, Hassan Assan Tehrani Moghaddam, and his history of developing the Fateh tactical ballistic missile for Iran. Moghaddam was an Iranian military officer in the IRGC Aerospace Forces and key architect of Iran’s ballistic missile program.

Iran seems to be leaning on Hezbollah to carry out attacks. “Despite the Israeli Air Force’s constant intelligence and activity, the resistance [Hezbollah] has increased the pace of its qualitative operations, which fall within the framework of the ‘Khaybar’ series of operations, by directing concentrated and studied strikes at Israeli strategic and security centers, facilities and bases, at a depth of 145 km inside occupied Palestine, and using qualitative missiles and drones,” the pro-Iran al-Mayadeen media said on November 7.

This refers to recent Hezbollah attacks on central Israel using missiles. Tal Inbar, an expert on researcher on missiles, space and drone technology, posted on social media that Hezbollah had used a Fateh 110 in its attack targeting central Israel. The reported use of the Fateh missile may be linked to the fact that IRGC channels are talking about Moghaddam’s role in the missile program that developed this missile.

---

---

The question now remains whether Iran will attack Israel directly. Axios had reported that Iran could also strike at Israel from Iraq. The Iraqi militias that are backed by Iran have been in the spotlight over the last weeks. If Iran chooses a smaller attack using proxies it will show that it wants to ratchet down the tensions in the region.

It might do this as it watches how the incoming US president, Donald Trump, chooses to prepare for his return to office. Iran has likely seen reports that Brian Hook, Trump’s Special Representative for Iran, is suspended in the first term and is set to return to the administration.

Media has reported that Donald Trump’s former Iran special envoy is making a comeback as the new administration is formed in transition, likely signaling a strict policy on Iran. “Brian Hook, a top State Department official during the first Trump administration, is expected to lead Trump’s transition team at the State Department, according to three sources familiar with the matter,” CNN reported.

Iran might be reticent to create a crisis, knowing that Hook and others are returning to the administration. They know what happened last time when the US killed Qasem Soleimani. Iran has a keen memory, and they know that they also sought to target US officials from the former Trump administration. Iran knows that memories won’t fade in Washington regarding Iran’s transgressions. 

end

UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA

ROBERT H….

Hal Turner Radio Show –

UNIFORMED UKRAINE ARMY SOLDIERS SAY TRUMP “WILL NEVER BE PRESIDENT AGAIN” – BURN HIM (AND MAGA VOTER) IN EFFIGY

	1:00 PM (5 minutes ago)
to

Let this twisted nation go ..  there are too many ideological morons .. a total insult to America

https://halturnerradioshow.com/index.php/news-selections/world-news/uniformed-ukraine-army-soldiers-say-trump-will-never-be-president-again-burn-him-and-maga-voter-in-effigy

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

Insurance Companies Going Bankrupt Due Tsunami of COVID Vaccine Death

Robert H;

“Suppose for a moment this is true.
Are we equipped to handle what comes?
Do we understand the profound changes this type of die off will cause.
One may imagine that the psychiatric hospitals will be a good investment until no one can pay.”

https://disswire.com/insurance-companies-going-bankrupt-due-tsunami-of-deaths-from-covid-vaccines/

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

Link

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

Pardons by President Harris? Someone raised an interesting issue today with me & I wanted to share, that it MAY be, ‘MAY’ be, that Biden could step down & give it to Kamala to be POTUS until Jan 20th

2025; and you know what, entirely possible, I do not put it past them; remember Crossfire Hurricane, Biden cannot pardon himself & he is involved, Trump will go after them, Biden & Obama needed Kamala

Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 7

READ IN APP

to pardon them, Biden cannot pardon himself as not ever done and needs to be tested in courts and will take time; so, could they put Kamala as POTUS, help rehab her for a next run with title as POTUS, get the first female POTUS, maybe some accomplishments in the short time as notches under the belt, but really to pardon Biden, Hunter, and Obama, Clapper, Brennan, Jarret etc. This election season is so bizarre that it is possible one more twist, we may have a POTUS Harris.

Why say you? I find interesting. It is possible.

Are we drinking too much today?

END

“Nothing is over”! You think it’s over? “No, you can’t just turn it off!” “It ain’t over”! Redfield of CDC is working to bullshit you into another PCR-created avian bird flu, CDC, NIH, FDA etc. will

not stop! And they are giving Redfield etc. airtime, people who fucked us with COVID fraud, with deadly OWS, with deadly Malone Bourla mRNA vaccine! Avian bird flu is coming, fraud fake NON-pandemic

Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 7

READ IN APP

to lock us down again, to close schools, to force masks, to impose mRNA vaccine…they decided…go ask Redfield.

Operation Northwoods where the US government, the DoD, planned to use commercial planes remote controlled in 1962 to kill American and Cuban civilians to start war on Cuba, flying planes remote controlled into buildings etc…thank God for John Kennedy as President who told the DoD to go fuck yourself! We know the rest. Operation Northwoods told us that the OP

continues…with deadly consequences; it’s the same OP now, COVID etc., coming avian bird flu fake pandemic, monkey pox…all of it…same OP. Same as Gulf of Tonkin..

You think it’s over? “No, you can’t just turn it off!” “It ain’t over”! You think Global COVID Summit (Global Crisis Summit) money whores (now calling it the International Crisis Summit/ICS) will let it be over? You think the donor money whores, the

Freedom Fighter money whores, the Freedom Fighter Media whores, the Deepstate cabal will let it be over? You see them still, hands out begging you “gimme gimme”; it ain’t over till it’s over!!

It’s over Johnny, it’s over!

SLAY NEWS

Bill Gates Insider Warns Covid-Vaxxed Face ‘Wave’ of ‘Unprecedented Deaths’A world-renowned virologist, who served as Bill Gates’s lead vaccine advisor, has warned the public that a “wave” of “unprecedented deaths” is looming for those who received Covid mRNA injections.READ MOREEuthanasia Activist Arrested After Dead Woman Found Strangled Inside ‘Suicide Pod’A prominent euthanasia activist is among several people who have been arrested after an American woman was found strangled to death inside one of Philip “Dr. Death” Nitschke’s so-called “suicide pods.”READ MORERachel Maddow Pushes New Anti-Trump Russia HoaxMSNBC anchor Rachel Maddow is already pushing wild conspiracy theories about President-Elect Donald Trump’s historic election victory.READ MOREJoy Reid Melts Down Over Trump Victory, Blames ‘White Women’ for Kamala Harris DefeatRace-baiting MSNBC anchor Joy Reid has lashed out at “white women” during an on-air meltdown over President-Elect Donald Trump’s historic election victory.READ MORECalifornia Passes Proposition 36 to Reverse Policies of Soros-Funded Pro-Crime DemocratsCalifornia voters have overwhelmingly passed Proposition 36 in a major blow to radical George Soros-funded prosecutors and pro-crime Democrats.READ MOREFired Journalist Catherine Herridge Exposes Suppression of Hunter Biden Laptop Story by CBSCatherine Herridge, former CBS journalist, has exposed the network’s suppression of her reporting on Hunter Biden’s notorious “Laptop from Hell.”READ MOREDollar & Bitcoin Surge as Trump Wins Presidential ElectionThe dollar and Bitcoin surged in value overnight as President-Elect Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 election became clear.READ MORETrump: ‘God Spared My Life for a Reason – I Am Going to Stop Wars’In his historic victory speech, President-Elect Donald Trump declared that “God spared my life for a reason.” Trump told supporters that divine intervention saved his life in two failed assassination attempts so he could win re-election and “stop wars.” He made the statement while noting that the Republicans are the “party of common sense.” Referring to his first term in …READ MOREKamala Harris Cancels Howard University Speech, Sends Supporters HomeFailed Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris has pulled out of her planned speech at Howard University after getting crushed by President-Elect Donald Trump.READ MOREVice President-Elect JD Vance: ‘We Just Witnessed the Greatest Political Comeback in the History of the United States of America’During President Donald Trump’s victory speech, Vice President-Elect JD Vance celebrated the victory as “the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America.”READ MORETrump Wins 2024 Presidential ElectionPresident Donald Trump has soared to a historic victory over Democrat Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.READ MOREBlack Lives Matter Leader Endorses Trump: ‘I Definitely Would Not Be Supporting Kamala Harris’A Black Lives Matter (BLM) leader has announced his endorsement of President Donald Trump while warning that Democrat presidential candidate Kamala Harris “would be a disaster for this country.”READ MOREHollywood Star Bette Midler Suggests Kamala Harris Voters Drink Poisonous Chemicals If Trump WinsLiberal Hollywood star Bette Midler has taken to social media to suggest that Democrat voters should drink poisonous chemicals if President Donald Trump wins re-election.READ MOREVIEW MORE

NEWS ADDICTS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

DOJ to FIRE Jack Smith and END Cases Against TrumpIt’s just being reported that the DOJ is going to fire Special Counsel Jack Smith.READ THE FULL REPORT

DOJ Getting Rid of Jack Smith Before Trump Takes Office, Dropping Federal CasesThe Department of Justice is removing Jack Smith as special counsel and dropping his two federal investigations into President-Elect Donald Trump following Trump’s dominant win in Tuesday’s election.READ THE FULL REPORT

Biden Breaks Silence as Kamala Harris Concedes DefeatDonald Trump spent his first day as president-elect receiving congratulatory phone calls from his defeated opponent, world leaders, and President Joe Biden as he began the process of turning his election victory into a government.READ THE FULL REPORT

George Bush Breaks Silence on Election After Refusing to Say How He Was VotingGeorge W. Bush has broken his silence on the presidential election after refusing to reveal who he was voting for.READ THE FULL REPORT

Moment ‘Polling Nostradamus’ Who Predicted Kamala Would Win Election Realizes He Was WrongAn American political historian known as the “Nostradamus” of elections was seemingly at a loss for words early Wednesday when he realized his prediction — that Kamala Harris would win the presidential election — was wrong.READ THE FULL REPORT

EVOL NEWS

Trump Wins Election in ‘Greatest Comeback in American History’ – EVOLREAD MORE…

LATEST NEWS:

Jim Justice Wins, Flips Joe Manchin’s Senate Seat to GOP – EVOLRead more…Liberals Melt Down After Florida Voters Reject Abortion Rights Amendment – EVOLRead more…Delaware State Senator Becomes First Transgender Elected to U.S. Congress – EVOLRead more…NEW: Harris Campaign Goes Silent, Stops Giving Comments – EVOLRead more…Tim Walz’s State Still Too Close To Call Well Into Election Night – EVOLRead more…Moreno ousts Brown in Ohio Senate race – EVOLRead more…BREAKING: Republicans Oust Longtime Democrat Senator In Another Massive Flip – EVOLRead more…Boebert wins reelection in Colorado – EVOLRead more…

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

Rabobank: The 2nd Trump Admin Is Staffed With MAGA Talent Pool Which Knows How Levers Of Power Work

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 11:05 AM

By Michael Every of Rabobank

Houthi, what, when, where, why, how?

If there has been one key message in the Global Daily in the past few years it has been that major shifts in politics and geopolitics, especially ones people don’t like, are going to matter to markets. Yesterday made that point even if Trump’s re-election was not a grey rhino, let alone a black swan, if you had done real digging, rather than digging in, in advance. Yet the major market moves we saw yesterday are likely just the start, not the end of this process.

It now seems the Republicans may take narrow control of the House of Representatives as well as the Senate and presidency, giving them the trifecta. While that was also true in 2016, the first Trump administration was a chaotic affair initially aware of what it could do, with the Republicans deeply divided over ‘Trumpism’. By contrast, the second Trump administration is staffed with a motivated MAGA talent pool which knows how the levers of power work domestically and internationally. Many things could change very significantly, very quickly.   

As a case in point, yesterday saw fake news reports the Houthis had declared an end to their blockade of the Suez Canal, with enormous implications for maritime global trade. I’ll confess that I briefly fell for it, as did a slew of geopolitical commentators. We all assumed a Houthi retreat was a logical response to a US soon not afraid to show what ‘deterrence’ means: as opposed to removing the Houthis from the global terror watchlist; ineffective bombing; an ineffective naval taskforce; asking Iran for help (as it attacks Israel); asking China for help (as it tells the Houthis which are its ships, and to leave them alone); and ocean carriers pay $2bn protection money to the Houthis to incentivize them. In short, while the US will now need to escalate to deescalate to deal with the Houthis, and others, moving parts will move.

People are already talking about a surge in freight rates if Chinese/global exporters try to flood the US with goods now to front-run any 60%(+?) US tariffs. As has been pointed out here repeatedly, there’s been no underlying improvement in US logistics since the Covid supply-chain crisis, and under a sudden surge of demand strains will be seen and freight rates will rise, with global ripple effects: and the ILA east coast US port strike still looms from 15 January.

However, also note Trump economic advisor Bessent is being considered for Treasury Secretary: I again underline he favors a ‘T+X’ tariff plan that gives global firms, say, two years to build factories in the US to avoid sanctions, reducing most of their direct inflation impact, but getting all the capex, supply-side, and trade-deficit narrowing gains – Samsung yesterday said this is what they plan to do. That might mean new economic models are needed for US tariffs – if economists want to model the world as it is rather than as they (or their models) want it to be.

Meanwhile, no sooner had Trump won than Germany’s government collapsed. Chancellor Scholz fired Finance Minister Lindner, whose FDP has left the coalition. A confidence vote now looms, which is likely to fail, at which point Germany has elections around March, in which the far right AfD and far left BSW are both expected to do well enough that perhaps no centrist coalition can be formed. Notably, Scholz wanted to bridge a €9bn fiscal hole with borrowing and offer subsidies to firms leaving the country due to its high costs. Lindner wanted to cut taxes, and spending by more, and de-regulate to stick to the holy-of-holies, a German balanced budget – as Germany becomes ever more unbalanced. Parts of both plans are arguably needed (and such thinking may well emerge in the US), but Germany will get neither now, and maybe not later.

The focus now shifts to what China’s policy response to a Trump win will be. We have heard repeated chatter of a large fiscal package of some form, even if little of this so far represents a real economy game-changer: but let’s wait and see what might appear if we were to get US tariffs. Imagine a go-go US pre-tariff boom and a go-go real China stimulus.

Similarly, we have heard market whispers that tariffs = a large CNY depreciation, and yesterday saw CNY weaken the most in one session for almost two years. However, if that happens, Trump will logically shout for even higher tariffs, and a downwards spiral begins that drags in the entire global economy. Can you see how this dynamic geopolitical and geoeconomic process is not your traditional macro or FX model? Or that the answer to most of the potential questions posed above is *NOT* “rate cuts”?

On which note, today is a Fed meeting decision day. The consensus is still another 25bp cut to take Fed Funds to 4.75%, despite the surge in long bond yields, stocks at a record high, Bitcoin at a record high, and gold close to one; and the strong Q3 GDP print, low initial jobless claims, and the good ISM services (and employment sub-index) reading. Presumably, the last hurricane-impacted 12K payrolls print will be the “stag” the Fed looks to, not the persistent “flation” from services to assets. That is notable given the impact of inflation is being seen in many quarters as a large part of the explanation for the Democrat’s stinging election defeat.

Moreover, as the Fed meets today, rumor swirls of Trump still wanting an ex-officio rate-setting advisory role, that Powell won’t be reappointed, and that Trump might even name his successor in advance, muddying the monetary waters. Assuming this is all true, one is going to have to start factoring politics (and potentially even geopolitics) into central banking (“You want a swap line? We have a quid pro quo for you.”), as our Fed Watcher Philip Marey has already alluded to recently. Again, that calls for new models to capture the world as it is, not as we would like it to be.

That process starts by looking around you and asking questions: Houthi, what, when, where, why, how?

As one starts thinking along those lines, note Brazil raised rates by 50bps, not 25bps, to 11.25% as expected, with pressure on the government to cut spending as the currency continues to weaken. Brazil, as a BRICS member and agri rival to key US sectors, especially in sales to China, could feature heavily in US geopolitical discussions going forwards.

In Australia, RBA Governor Bullock testified to parliament and argued a potential 10% Trump tariff on Australia would have little impact on it, but a 60% one on China may have an adverse effect – but they don’t know if it means significantly higher or lower inflation. Bullock also admitted the RBA had not done any scenario analysis on what a Trump presidency could mean for Australia. After all, it was only the most well-flagged election in the world, with equally well-flagged policies, with a well-flagged “50-50” potential outcome: why bother doing any work on that in advance?

Do you see what I mean about the need to ask better questions and to think about new economic models?

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

BRICS MEETING

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0769 UP 0.0040

USA/ YEN 153.81 DOWN .495 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2943 UP 0.0061

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.3891 DOWN 0.0059 (CDN DOLLAR UP 59 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 86.86 PTS OR 2.57%

 Hang Seng CLOSED UP 414.96 PTS OR 2.02%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.30%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL MIXED

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 414.96 PTS OR 2.02%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 86.86 PTS OR 2.57%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .30%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 99.26 PTS OR 0.25%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2672.85

silver:$31.38

USA dollar index early THURSDAY  morning: 104.67 DOWN 31 BASIS POINTS FROM  WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.

THURSDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

And now your closing  THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.920% UP 3 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.003% UP 2 AND 0/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.172 UP 2 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.733 UP 0 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.4255 UP 2 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :   THURSDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0808 UP .0077 OR 77 basis points

USA/Japan: 153.27 DOWN 1.063 OR YEN IS DOWN 280 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.552 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar UP 85 OR 85 BASIS pts  to 1.3862

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.1436 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.1509)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.25 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.003

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 7 in basis points from MONDAY at  4.364% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.560 DOWN 6 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.218 DOWN 8  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2691.35

SILVER AT 11;00: 31.72

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 25.94 PTS OR 0.32%

German Dax :  CLOSED UP 323.21 OR 1.70%

Paris CAC CLOSED UP 55.99 PTS OR 0.76%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 74.80 OR 0.65%

Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 30.51 OR 0.12%

WTI Oil price  71.59 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  74.65 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  97.99 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  99/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.4255 UP 2 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.552 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.286 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.094 DOWN 3

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0805 UP 0.0074 OR 74 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2988 UP 0.01058 OR 106 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.528 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.003

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 152.81 DOWN 1.505 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3846 DOWN 0.01012 CDN dollar DOWN 101 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 72.17

Brent OIL:  75.45

USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 11 BASIS pts to 4,317

USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 7 BASIS PTS to 4.530%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 7 PTS AT  4.203

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.241 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.048 DOWN 11 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 104.20 DOWN 79 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.23 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  98.00 UP 0 AND  78/100 roubles

GOLD  2,741,70 3:30 PM

SILVER: 32.60 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 0.79 PTS OR 0.00%

NASDAQ UP 320.64 PTS OR 1.54%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 15.19 DOWN 1.08 PTS OR 6.64%

GLD: $249.65 UP 3.95 OR 1.61%

SLV/ $29.11 UP 0.68 OR 2.39%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX: UP 198.76 PTS OR 0.81%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Bitcoin, Bullion, & Big-Tech Bid As ‘Hawkish’ Powell Pushes Bond Yields, Rate-Cut Odds Lower

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 04:00 PM

A relatively hawkish Fed statement – removing language that it has “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainable toward 2 percent” – was met with a ‘meh’ response by the market, but once Fed Chair Powell started speaking it was clear that the uber-dovish rate-cut trajectory that so many hoped for was a thing of the past… for now.

Rate-cut expectations for December stumbled notably…

Source: Bloomberg

During the press conference, The Fed chief notes that while overall inflation has moved closer to the central bank’s goal, core inflation is still “somewhat elevated.”

Powell says the latest inflation report “wasn’t terrible,” but price increases were a little higher than expected.

“We don’t guess, we don’t speculate and we don’t assume.”

Powell says economic activity “has continued to expand at a solid pace,” nodding to strong GDP data and “solid” labor market reports.

“We don’t think it’s a good time to be doing a lot of forward guidance.”

As the Fed gets closer to neutral, it may be appropriate to slow the pace of recalibration, he says.

“It’s something that we’re just beginning to think about.”

Powell says they are not in a hurry to “find neutral.”

Powell, when asked what his plan to deal with stagflation is:

“Our plan is not to have stagflation”

Solid plan, Jay!

Finally, Powell says in the near term, the election “will have no effect” on Fed decisions.

Finally, here’s a more ominous take to all this sudden walking-back of The Fed’s dovishness:

“If inflation is still elevated and the committee risks are roughly in balance, what is the point of continuing to cut?” asks Byron Anderson of Laffer Tengler Investments.

“The Fed gained control of the recession narrative with its supersized cut at the last meeting. If you believe the economy is on good footing, the risks to inflation are increasing with every rate cut they do.

Without a credit crisis emerging, which is not evident at the moment, the greater risk to markets is adding stimulus to an already inflationary leaning environment.

Many will disagree but this was the perfect point for the Fed to pause and reassess the landscape through the end of the year.”

So where did that leave us?

Treasury yields plunged on the day with the belly outperforming (7Y -13bps, 2Y -7bps, 30Y -7bps). That dragged all yields lower on the week…

Source: Bloomberg

It’s been a wild few days in bond-land, between payrolls, the election, and now The Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

The US equity majors were mixed with Nasdaq (and S&P) soaring while The Dow and Small Caps were unable to break out to the upside (with late-day selling pressure pushing Small Caps significantly lower)…

Mega-Cap Tech continued to surge

Source: Bloomberg

‘Trump Trade’ gains continue to hold…

Source: Bloomberg

The post-election, and now post-FOMC VIX collapse continues…

Source: Bloomberg

VIX is back at a critical support level

The dollar slipped lower, back to pre-payrolls levels, erasing most of the election spike…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rebounded on the dollar weakness, back above $2700…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin extended its gains to new record highs…

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum also took off today again, topping $2900…

Source: Bloomberg

ETH outperformed BTC bigly today – the biggest outperformance day since May 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices dumped and pumped again, with WTI ending back above $72…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, this is a stunner… it appears the market was using short-dated USA sovereign CDS to hedge the possibility of Kamala winning…

Source: Bloomberg

Since Trump’s Red Sweep, USA Sovereign risk has collapsed!!!

MORNING TRADING

AFTERNOON TRADING///FOMC

Fed Cuts Rates By 25bps As Expected, Removes ‘Dovish’ Inflation Language

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 02:00 PM

It’s been an ‘eventful’ six weeks since The Fed decided (on Sept 18th) to slash interest rates by 50bps.

The macro-economic data has literally exploded stronger…

Source: Bloomberg

…with inflation reigniting and growth surprises soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

…and that has slammed rate-cut expectations down by over 100bps…

Source: Bloomberg

Which has helped lift gold and stocks while crude prices have collapsed (and Bitcoin has gone vertical)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, more problematically, the mortgage rate has ripped higher since The Fed cut…

Source: Bloomberg

The market is fully priced for 25bps cut today, but December is now a coin-toss (54% odds of another 25bps).

Will The FOMC (and Powell’s presser) jawbone expectations down further? Will Bowman dissent again?

So what did The Fed do?

• *FED LOWERS BENCHMARK RATE 25 BPS TO 4.5%-4.75% RANGE
• *FED SAYS RISKS TO GOALS REMAIN ‘ROUGHLY IN BALANCE‘
• *FED: LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS HAVE ‘GENERALLY EASED‘

No dissent on this rate-cut decision.

Key changes:

• Most notably, removing language that Fed has “gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainable toward 2 percent”.
• Adding that labor market conditions have “generally eased” since earlier in the year, replacing “job gains have slowed”.

Read the full redline below:

END

Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He Cut Rates Again As Growth & Inflation Data Surge

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 02:25 PM

A 50bps rate-cut six weeks before the election – not political at all.

And now Fed Chair Powell has to explain why he cut rates again despite surging macro data (growth scares completely erased and reignited inflation fears), record high stocks and soaring Treasury yields.

There was barely a blip of reaction across markets after the hawkish statement, so it will come down to what Powell says… though Dec rate-cut odds are sliding…

Will Powell use the presser to jawbone expectations of the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory down now that (inflationary) Trump will be in The White House?

UBS says it is likely that Chair Powell will be peppered with questions on the pace of rate cuts to come, the potential for skips, and maybe even where rates will ultimately end up.

We expect the Chairs tone remains similar to that of the September meeting and that any guidance will remain data dependent…

We doubt he will commit to anything at this juncture, neither another rate cut in December nor skipping that meeting.

He might say the FOMC would consider lowering rates at the next meeting, but stop there.

Watch live here (due to start at 1430ET):

II USA DATA

Continuing Jobless Claims Jump To 3-Year-Highs

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 08:37 AM

Initial jobless claims ticked up very modestly last week with seasonally-adjusted claims hovering around 221k – not far off the lows of the year…

Source: Bloomberg

Both Florida and North Carolina (particularly affected by the major hurricanes) are returning to normal…

Source: Bloomberg

However, continuing claims rose to 1.892mm Americans – the highest since Nov 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this the start of the ‘unraveling’ of the Biden admin ‘adjustments’?

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

Great sign of an economy that is in trouble

(zerohedge)

Molson Coors Says US Beer Demand Sinks In “Challenged Macroeconomic Environment”

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 09:50 AM

Molson Coors Beverage Co., the company behind Miller Lite, Molson Canadian, and Blue Moon, reported third-quarter sales that missed Wall Street expectations and forecasted a decline for the year. The brewer cited a challenging macroeconomic environment in the US that pressured consumers, reducing beer demand for the quarter. 

For the quarter ending Sept. 30, net sales declined 7.8% to $3.04 billion, below the Bloomberg consensus of $3.13 billion. The brewer noted that its European and Asian business units performed strongly, as did Canada within its Americas business unit, but it pointed to an extraordinarily weak environment in the US.

“However, the US was challenged with the macroeconomic environment along with anticipated unfavorable shipment timing and the wind-down of a contract brewing agreement contributing to a US financial volume decline of 17.9%,” Molson wrote in a press release under the CEO AND CFO perspectives. 

Here’s a snapshot of third-quarter earnings that painted a rather dismal situation for the brewer’s US beer unit (Bloomberg):

Underlying EPS $1.80 vs. $1.92 y/y, estimate $1.67 (Bloomberg Consensus)

Underlying Ebitda $692.3 million, -6.8% y/y, estimate $679.9 million

Net sales $3.04 billion, -7.8% y/y, estimate $3.13 billion

• Americas net sales $2.35 billion, -11% y/y, estimate $2.4 billion
• EMEA & APAC net sales $704.4 million, +5.1% y/y, estimate $714.7 million

Foreign Currency Impact in sales -7.4%, estimate 0.05%

Financial volume 20.63 million hectoliters, -12% y/y, estimate 21.56 million

• Americas volume 14.70 million hectoliters, -16% y/y, estimate 15.22 million
• EMEA & APAC volume 5.94 million hectoliters, -3% y/y, estimate 6.21 million

Worldwide brand volume 21.33 million hectoliters, -9.3% y/y, estimate 20.77 million

Underlying effective tax rate 24% vs. 20% y/y, estimate 24.5%

Due to sliding beer demand in the US unit, Molson guided 2024 top-line guidance down… 

Given the impacts the macroeconomic environment has had on the US beer industry and our US financial volumes during this year’s peak selling season, we are adjusting our 2024 top-line guidance to down approximately 1% from previous guidance of up low single-digits, both on a constant currency basis. However, we are reaffirming our underlying income (loss) before income taxes on a constant currency basis for the year because of an improved cost outlook related to packaging materials, transportation and general and administrative expenses. And we are reaffirming our underlying diluted earnings per share guidance of mid single-digit growth, but narrowing to the higher end of the range, driven by the accelerated pace of our share repurchase program.

Meanwhile, the inflation-driven misery storm unleashed by the Biden-Harris regime has sent US per capita alcohol consumption to the highest levels since the inflation storm in the 1970s. 

If alcohol consumption rises and beer demand slides, this only means spirits and wine are in demand. Goldman’s Olivier Nicolaï told clients last month that tequila is in hot demand. 

end

Michael Snyder..

Goodbye Middle Class: Half Of All American Workers Make Less Than $43,222.81 A Year

Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 05:00 PM

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,

It is that time of the year again.  

The Social Security Administration has finally released the final wage statistics for 2023, and they are quite sobering.  

According to the report, last year the “median wage” in this country was just $43,222.81.  In other words, half of all American workers made less than $43,222.81, and half of all American workers made more than $43,222.81.

 That is terrible news, because the cost of living has been rising much faster than paycheck have.  More people are being squeezed out of the middle class with each passing day, but most Americans don’t even realize that this is happening because the media isn’t really talking about it.

Poverty, homelessness and hunger are all growing all around us, and if we stay on the path that we are on the middle class will continue to be systematically eviscerated.

Once upon a time, the vast majority of the country could afford to live a middle class lifestyle.

But now those days are long gone.

A study that was recently released found that it now takes more than $100,000 a year for a typical U.S. household to live “the American Dream” in all 50 states, and in 29 U.S. states it takes more than $150,000 a year…

A household would have to spend more than $150,000 a year to live the dream in 29 of the 50 states, according to an analysis published in April by the personal finance site GOBankingRates.

According to the report, the optimal American lifestyle would cost $137,842 a year in Ohio, $147,535 in Texas, $159,932 in Florida, $194,067 in New York and $245,723 in California.

The state that has the lowest cost of living is Mississippi.

Living the American Dream only costs $109,516 a year in that state.

Needless to say, someone earning $43,222.81 a year is not going to be able to live the American Dream anywhere in the nation.

Even if there are two people earning $43,222.81 a year in the same household, that still isn’t going to get you anywhere close to living the American Dream.

When I was growing up, my father worked and my mother stayed home with the kids, and we were still able to live a middle class lifestyle.

But now most households cannot afford to live a middle class lifestyle even if both parents are working.

After reading that, is there anyone out there that would like to disagree with me about the fact that we have been experiencing a long-term economic decline?

What I have been warning about all these years has been slowly but steadily playing out right in front of our eyes.

Not too long ago, a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll found that only about one-third of the entire U.S. population actually believes that the American Dream “is still alive”…

Only about a third of U.S. adults believe the American dream is still alive, a Wall Street Journal/NORC poll published Wednesday found.

A survey of 2,501 people conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute twelve years ago found more than half of respondents believed the American dream “still holds true,” but now only a third feel that way, according to a recent WSJ/NORC poll of 1,502 adults. The study also found an increasingly large gap between people’s economic goals and what they think is actually attainable — a trend that was consistent across gender and party lines, but was especially common amongst younger generations.

Nobody out there can deny what is happening.

This is our country now, and conditions are getting worse with each passing day.

One of the biggest reasons why the American Dream is out of reach for most of the population is because home prices have gone absolutely haywire over the last four years…

Twenty-four percent of likely voters who rent their homes said that “the cost of housing” is the most important economic issue they’re considering as they decide their vote, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS between September 19 and 22.

That’s no surprise: The US is facing a once-in-a-generation housing affordability crisis. In the four years through August 2024, national home prices have risen 45%, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to the National Association of Realtors, the median sales price of a home in the US hit a record high this summer and now hovers just below that level.

Renting used to be an affordable alternative for many people, but these days close to half of all renters in this country “spend more than 30% of their income on housing”…

Nor has renting become any easier than buying. Nearly half of US renters spend more than 30% of their income on housing, qualifying them as “cost-burdened,” according to US Census data from September.

In September 2024, the median rent in the U.S. was $2,050 a month.

How are you supposed to be able to afford that if you are making just $43,222.81 a year?

Increasingly, America is being divided into the “haves” and the “have nots”.

If you don’t know which group you belong to, let me clue you in.  If you are not making more than $100,000 a year, you are definitely among the “have nots”.

Unfortunately, economic conditions are rapidly getting worse, and we are seeing high profile bankruptcies happen at a pace that we haven’t seen since the global financial crisis.  For example, one of the largest crafting chains in the U.S. just filed for bankruptcy…

Joann — the craft store chain formerly known as Jo-Ann Fabrics — has filed for bankruptcy amid ongoing financial troubles.

But DIYers need not worry just yet: The company’s more than 800 stores nationwide will remain open and its website will stay active as the Hudson, Ohio-based company restructures its finances.

As hordes of businesses fail all over the nation, our historic commercial real estate crisis just continues to intensify.

If you doubt this, just check out these numbers…

The delinquency rate of office mortgages backing commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 9.4% in October, up a full percentage point from September, and the highest since the worst months of the meltdown that followed the Financial Crisis. The delinquency rate has doubled since June 2023 (4.5%), according to data by Trepp, which tracks and analyzes CMBS.

I don’t even have to tell many of you what those numbers mean.

We are headed for a historic meltdown, and it is going to absolutely devastate small to mid-size banks from coast to coast.

Meanwhile, most Americans are just barely scraping by from month to month as our standard of living steadily deteriorates.

We are in far more trouble than most people realize, and the months ahead are going to be extremely challenging.

Michael’s new book entitled “Why” is available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can subscribe to his Substack newsletter at michaeltsnyder.substack.com.

END

Florida rejects measure to make abortion a right

(zerohedge)

Florida Rejects Measure To Make Abortion A Right

Wednesday, Nov 06, 2024 – 10:35 PM

Authored by Samantha Flom via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A fierce battle over the legality of abortion in Florida came to a head on Nov. 5, when the state’s voters became the first in the nation to reject a push to enshrine abortion in the state’s constitution since the U.S. Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision.

After overcoming multiple legal challenges to secure its spot on Florida’s general election ballot, Amendment 4 failed to clear the final obstacle to its passage: the voters.

A 60 percent majority was required for the measure’s adoption. At 9 p.m. on election night with 91 percent of the vote in, the measure had received 57 percent of the vote.

The amendment sought to establish a right to abortion until fetal viability—the point at which a baby can survive outside the womb—or at any time if deemed necessary to protect the mother’s health by a “healthcare provider.”

Its adoption would have nullified the state’s six-week abortion law, which took effect in May. That law states that abortion is illegal once a pregnancy passes the six-week mark. The law includes limited exceptions for situations involving rape, incest, human trafficking, or a serious threat to the mother’s physical health.

Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America President Marjorie Dannenfelser celebrated the voters’ decision in a statement.

“The demise of pro-abortion Amendment 4 is a momentous victory for life in Florida and for our entire country,” Dannenfelser said. “Thanks to Gov. Ron DeSantis, when we wake up tomorrow, babies with beating hearts will still be protected in the free state of Florida.”

DeSantis fought hard against the ballot amendment, arguing that its broad language failed to define the specific conditions under which an abortion could be performed, and by whom.

He also held that the law would undo existing parental consent requirements for minors seeking abortions, bar the state from enacting regulations to protect pregnant women, and effectively allow for abortion up until the moment of birth.

“This Amendment 4, this is an intentional deception on the public,” DeSantis said at an Oct. 30 press conference in Clearwater, surrounded by a group of doctors who opposed the amendment.

Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody made the same arguments in challenging the amendment’s validity before the state’s Supreme Court. The court found those arguments unconvincing and approved the measure for the ballot.

Floridians Protecting Freedom, the yes campaign for the amendment, sued the Florida Health Department over its attempts to stop TV stations from airing ads supporting the measure that state officials said misrepresented the state’s current law.

A ruling has yet to be issued in the case.

Yes on 4 Campaign Director Lauren Brenzel criticized the state’s opposition to Amendment 4 in an Oct. 16 statement.

“The State cannot coerce television stations into removing political speech from the airwaves in an attempt to keep their abortion ban in place,” Brenzel said.

The amendment faced another obstacle in the final weeks of the election: allegations of fraud.

The state’s Office of Election Crimes and Security alleged that the petition’s circulators forged signatures to secure the amendment’s placement on the ballot. Law enforcement is reportedly investigating 60 individuals in connection with the case.

END

A good read..

Philip Wegmann,,,

Trump Win Signals ‘Historic Realignment’

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 03:30 AM

Authored by Philip Wegmann via RealClearPolitics,

Donald John Trump, the 45th U.S. president, will soon become the 47th president, after he was projected to win not just the 270 electoral college votes needed to return to the White House but also the national popular vote. His humiliation of the political elite is now complete.

The conservative Fox News channel was first to call the race for Trump while the Associated Press and the legacy television networks held off early Wednesday morning. After Pennsylvania turned red, however, even liberal MSNBC News conceded that the Republican’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris had become mathematically insurmountable. The AP finally called the race at 5:45 a.m.

Trump is on track to become the first Republican to win a majority of the vote since George W. Bush in 2004, and he will become the first president to serve two nonconsecutive terms since Grover Cleveland in 1892. His triumph represents a wholesale repudiation of the establishment. Big business, Hollywood, the media, and both major political parties treated him as an unwelcome interloper. He delivered his rebuttal on Election Day.

A celebrity known for his starring role on a reality television show, a career in New York real estate, and a knack for showing up in the tabloids, Trump wasn’t even a “citizen politician” when he arrived on the political scene in 2015. He wasn’t a politician at all and had never run for office or been involved in party politics. Dismissed by the commentariat as unserious, he defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, and was impeached (but not convicted) for his troubles. Four years later, he was again declared politically unviable after he refused to accept the results of his loss to Joe Biden and his supporters stormed the U.S. Capitol. Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell condemned him as “practically and morally responsible” for the Jan. 6 riot, but efforts by an increasingly obsolete cohort of GOP were singularly unsuccessful in sidelining the man.

Trump declared his candidacy immediately after the 2022 midterms, marched almost effortlessly through a crowded field of primary challengers, and secured a third consecutive presidential nomination. He did not regain his grasp on the GOP so much as he tightened his grip on that party.

 “I think that we just witnessed the greatest political comeback in the history of the United States of America,” Trump running mate J.D. Vance said after Tuesday’s election returns rolled in. There was no exaggeration in his words.

The first time Trump won the White House, he did so as the leader of a white working-class coalition, promising those he would call in his inaugural address “the forgotten men and women” to reverse the “American carnage” brought on by deindustrialization, globalization, and unchecked immigration. The former, and now future, president did not moderate. Opponents condemned his calls for mass deportations as “racist” and his vow to root out the ill-defined “enemy within” as “fascist.”

Those denunciations ultimately had little effect. Not only did Trump maintain his support with the white working class, but he also made significant gains with both Hispanic and black voters according to early exit polls. A multi-class, multi-ethnic coalition returned him to power. One demographic at the center of that electorate: young men.

Tuesday’s results amount to a repudiation, not only of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden, but also the old breed of Republicans who made common cause with corporations and harbored a neoconservative foreign policy. The most visible among them, former Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, threw her support behind the Democrat. Trump’s second victory heralds a shifting political landscape that will continue sorting itself out during the presidential transition and in the four-year term to follow.

Reflecting on the breadth of his support, Trump told a crowded victory party that his winning coalition was drawn “from all quarters – union, non-union, African American, Hispanic American, Asian American, Arab American.” Surrounded by his family and campaign staff on stage, he added, “We had everybody, and it was beautiful.”

“It was,” Trump added, “a historic realignment.”

The Harris campaign had already headed to bed at that point. “Let’s finish up what we have in front of us tonight, get some sleep,” campaign manager Jen O’Malley Dillon wrote to her team in an email obtained by RealClearPolitics, “and get ready to close out strong tomorrow.”

The vice president had yet to concede by mid-morning Wednesday. Famous for chiding Republican men when they talked over her – “I’m speaking” – Harris sent her campaign chairman, Cedric Richmond, on stage to tell her supporters at Howard University late Tuesday that they would not hear from her. Many left in tears. Trump World was just beginning to party.

A crowd noticeably younger than the ones Trump attracted in his two previous elections had packed into the Palm Beach Convention Center hours earlier. As their champion monitored data from nearby Mar-a-Lago, they pulled up to any of the six cash bars in the main hall. The most popular beer for the thirsty America First voter: Modelo, a lager from Mexico.

The MAGA faithful were prepared for a long night. News networks warned that the results might not be known on Election Day or even the morning after, a message amplified by Democrats. And there was good reason to believe the race might come down to the wire: Trump and Harris were locked in a dead heat for much of the contest as a divided nation evaluated its options. But just as he used social media to sidestep gatekeepers eight years ago, Trump targeted new, younger voters, with a new medium: the Bro Podcast.

He talked about everything from aliens to artificial intelligence with Joe Rogan, host of “The Joe Rogan Experience.” He chopped it up on the Barstool Sports podcast “Bussin’ With the Boys,” hosted by former NFL football players Will Compton and Taylor Lewan. He asked Theo Von if he still uses cocaine (the comedian told the teetotaling president that the white powder “will turn you into a damn owl, homie”). The conversations did not resemble anything like Frost v. Nixon. Podcasts are certainly much cheaper and less serious. They were instrumental, all the same, in turning out young men who are famously low-propensity voters.

Harris sought to make the race a referendum on Trump. She described him as a threat to democracy generally and an opponent of abortion rights specifically. For his part, he called illegal immigration “the biggest issue” and an inflation-addled economy “the second.” A senior Trump advisor told RCP it was “more like ‘Issue 1A and 1B,’ but immigration is one of them.” Either way, the economic frustrations and security fears were enough to deliver Trump a majority despite the criminal indictments and felony convictions that Democrats had hoped would throttle his candidacy.

Those legal challenges made Trump the symbol of conservative martyrdom. It became visceral at the fairground in Butler, Pennsylvania, this summer when an assassin’s bullet clipped his ear. The photo of the bloody Republican pumping his fist in defiance instantly became an image for the ages.

“This is what happens when the machine comes after you,” bellowed Ultimate Fight Championship president Dana White from the main stage here Tuesday night. “He keeps going forward. He doesn’t quit. He’s the most resilient, hardworking man that I’ve ever met in my life.” Referring to Trump’s victory in the face of the challenges, White said, “This is karma.”

Whatever cosmic forces were at play, victory was not guaranteed. While Trump seemed poised to handle Biden, Harris promised to be a tougher challenge after she delivered a shot of adrenaline straight into progressive hearts. She brought in more fundraising dollars, campaigned alongside celebrities like Oprah Winfrey and Beyoncé Knowles, and turned the race into the definition of a dead heat. Doubt crept into Republican hearts in the final days, especially after The Atlantic magazine reported that morale inside the Republican campaign was cratering. A senior Trump aide texted RCP to say the opposite: “Morale is decidedly very high at this current moment.”

According to longtime Trump confidant Roger Stone, Democrats have only themselves to blame for what happened in this election.

“If you want to make somebody iconic, try to throw them in jail, try to bankrupt them,” said the infamous political operative. “If you want to make somebody iconic, cook up a fake hoax to justify their removal from the presidency,” he added in reference to once-en-vogue allegations that Trump was a Russian asset. “And if you really want to make somebody iconic, try to kill them.”

Stone was not alone in viewing the political attacks – and the attempts on Trump’s life, which Democrats condemned – in the same category: “All those things failed,” he said. “They just made him bigger and more powerful.”

Trump has now dispensed with three Democratic Party opponents – Clinton in 2016 and both Biden and Harris in 2024. Each opponent had the money advantage and what was billed as a much more sophisticated political apparatus. He was able to do this, some Republicans like to say, because he was on a mission from the Almighty. But despite the personal invectives against enemies and frequent calls for retribution that defined his campaign, in his victory speech the president-elect made little mention of his opponent. He was philosophical the morning of his win.

“Many people have told me God spared my life for a reason,” Trump said, “and that reason was to save our country, and to restore America to greatness, and now we are going to fulfill that mission together.”

Congressional majorities are a handy thing to have in that kind of endeavor.

The GOP picked up three Senate seats to secure the upper chamber, while control of the House of Representatives was still too close to call but within reach. The highest-ranking Republican currently in office, House Speaker Mike Johnson, joined Trump on stage. Perhaps signaling that he didn’t have patience for more intramural infighting, he thanked Johnson by name and told the crowd, “I think he’s doing a terrific job.” More work will follow.

Trump has already remade the Republican Party in his own image, greatly diminishing the interventionist and libertarian wings of the GOP in the process. He now promises sweeping tariffs, a strategic retreat from global conflicts such as the land war in Ukraine, and an incessant focus on domestic challenges – the southern border chief among them. “America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” he insisted. The country only needs to follow his prescription to achieve “a golden age.”

Running against him in a third election, Democrats felt they finally knew what to make of Trump. Clinton made light of his many flaws the first time. Biden defeated him during the second election by painting him as a threat to democracy. For her part, Harris attempted to split the difference.

“In many ways, Donald Trump is an unserious man,” she told her fellow Democrats at their Chicago convention to hearty laughter. “But the consequences of putting Donald Trump back in the White House are extremely serious,” added the vice president – who is slated to soon preside over the certification of his election.

Some of the Republicans who came out to cheer Trump early Wednesday morning saw things similarly, especially the younger ones. They laughed at his unserious moments and listened earnestly to his serious warnings. One example was Caden Caouette, a Florida State University freshman who repurposed a Trump-Pence shirt by covering the name of the former vice president with a piece of masking tape with Vance written in Sharpie letters.

“These last couple of years really speak to it,” he said. “The economy has been bad, and then everybody crossing the border. A lot of work needs to get done, and Trump’s the man to do it.”

A first-time voter, Caouette stood outside the convention center just hours before his morning classes for a chance to cheer on the champion who had once again upended American politics. The podcasts, particularly the one with Rogan last month, he said, served as “a reminder” to vote because it was “not just something I could skip.”

A now certain return to the Oval Office, even for a larger-than-life figure like Trump, once seemed a stretch. In the end, it wasn’t.

END

the following is a must read!!

TRUMPQUAKE

BY PEPE ESCOBAR

SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS VERY IMPORTANT COMMENTARY TO US:

Trumpquake

Fasten your seatbelts: whatever happens, Trumpquake is bound to be a bumpy ride.

Join us on Telegram, Twitter, and VK.

Contact us: info@strategic-culture.su

On the political Richter scale, that was a killer – literally. What was supposed to be a Liberal Totalitarian Show was brutally, unceremoniously, swept out of the park – any park. Even before Election Day, critical thinking was aware of the stakes. With fraud, Kamala wins. With no fraud, Trump wins. There were, at best, (failed) attempts at fraud. The key question still remains: what does the U.S. Deep State really want?

My inbox is infested with loads of weepy reports from U.S. Think Tankland wondering, in disbelief, why Kamala could possibly lose. It’s quite straightforward – apart from her sheer incompetence cum utter mediocrity literally cackling out loud.

The legacy of the administration she was part of is ghastly – all the way from Crash Test Dummy to Little Butcher Blinkie.

Instead of bothering to care about the abysmal state of affairs, at every level, concerning that mythical entity, “the American people”, they chose to invest everything on a neocon-manufactured proxy war to inflict a “strategic defeat” on Russia – stealing Russian assets, unleashing a tsunami of sanctions, shipping an array of wunderwaffen. The weaponization of Ukraine led to countless Ukrainian dead and the inevitable, fast-approaching cosmic humiliation of NATO in the black soil of Novorossiya.

They invested everything to support a genocide in Gaza conducted with a huge arsenal of American weapons: a lebensraum-coded ethnic cleansing cum extermination op directed by a bunch of Talmudic psychos – and marketed under the “rules-based international order” spewed out by Butcher Blinkie in every bilateral or multilateral gathering.

It’s no wonder that West Asia and the wider Global South soon got the message of what may happen to anyone daring to go against the Hegemon’s “interests”. Thus the counterpunch: the strengthening of BRICS and BRICS+, celebrated for all the world to see two weeks ago in Kazan.

At least this administration had a merit, strengthening the bonds between all major “existential threats” to the Hegemon: three BRICS (Russia, China, Iran), plus the indomitable DPRK. All that in contrast with a meager tactical victory – which may not last long: the absolute vassalization of Europe.

Hanging Ukraine on Europe’s neck

Of course, foreign policy does not win U.S. elections. Americans themselves will have to solve their dilemmas, or plunge into civil war. As for the bulk of the Global Majority, it harbors no illusions. Trumpquake’s coded message is that the Zionist lobby wins – again. Perhaps not so unanimously when we consider all strands of neo-cons and Zio-cons. Wall Street wins again (BlackRock’s Larry Fink said so even before Election Day). And prominent silos across the Deep State also win again. That begs a modified question; what if Trump feels emboldened enough after January 25 to launch a Stalinist purge of the Deep State?

Election Day proceeded nearly simultaneously with the Valdai Club annual meeting in Sochi, where the superstar, not surprisingly, was eminent geopolitician Sergey Karaganov. Of course he directly referred to the Empire’s Forever Wars: “We are living in biblical times.”

And even before Trumpquake, Karaganov stressed, calmly, “We will defeat the West in Ukraine – without resorting to ultimate means.” And that “will provide for a peaceful withdrawal of the U.S. – which will become a normal superpower.” Europe, meanwhile, “will move to the sidelines of History.”

All of that spot on. But then Karaganov introduced a startling concept: “The war in Ukraine is a replacement of WWIII. Afterwards, we can agree on some kind of order in Eurasia.”

That would be the “indivisibility of security” proposed by Putin to Washington – and rejected – on December 2021, part of the “Greater Eurasia Partnership” that was conceptualized by Karaganov himself.

The problem though is his conclusion: “Let’s make the Ukrainian war the last major war in the 21^st century.”

Ay, there’s the rub: the real major war is actually Eretz Israel v. the Axis of Resistance in West Asia.

Let’s have a quick pit stop in Europe before getting to the meat of this matter. Trumpquake is all set to hang Ukraine on Europe’s neck like a larger-than-life albatross. The shorthand: Exit American money financing the born-to-lose Project Ukraine. Enter German money filling the coffers of the weapons lobby inside the Ray McGovern-coined MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressional-intelligence-media-academia-think tank complex).

The U.S. Treasury has issued an internal memorandum valid until April 30, 2025 – when Trump will be already three months in power – allowing transactions with Russian banks on anything related to oil, natural gas, timber and any form of uranium.

As for the gullible, Brussels-run EU, they will pay the heavy load on weaponizing rump Ukraine while accepting wave after wave of new refugees and saying goodbye to any of their funds already invested in that humongous black hole.

Beware of that Tony Soprano wannabe

Trumpquake – if taken at face value – is bound to further weaponize the U.S. dollar; Trump has threatened, on the record, to

blacklist any nation that uses other currencies for international trade. BRICS and BRICS+ partners have registered it; and that will accelerate the testing of all models in the BRICS lab leading towards a multi-layered alternative trade settlement system.

BRICS and the Global Majority also know that Trump in fact signed off on Nordstream sanctions – when he referred recently to “killing” Nord Steam. And they also know he did less than zero during Trump 1.0 to find a solution for the proxy war in Ukraine.

Now we come to the clincher. Trump personally destroyed the JCPOA – the Iran nuclear deal – brokered by the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany). Moscow – and Beijing – know perfectly well how this led to further destabilization of the whole of West Asia, in conjunction to the Trump-ordered assassination of Gen Soleimani, which started what I termed the Raging Twenties.

Last but not least, Trump brokered the bombastically-named “Deal of the Century”: the Abraham Accords, which if implemented will forever bury any possibility of an Israel/Palestine two-state solution.

The deal – which may be considered as nefarious as the 1917 Balfour declaration – may be in a coma. But MbS’s Whatsapp pal Jared Kushner is back, and will certainly renew the pressure. MbS still has not made up his mind when it comes to BRICS. Trump will go bonkers if MbS increasingly starts to navigate the petroyuan way.

All that brings us to a supremely nefarious character, Tony Soprano wannabe Mike Pompeo, who is a serious candidate to become head of the Pentagon. That would spell major trouble ahead. Pompeo was CIA director and Secretary of State under Trump 1.0. He is an uber-hawk on Russia, China and especially Iran.

Arguably the pressing question from now on is whether Trump – whose life was spared by God, in his own interpretation – does what is expected of him by his uber-wealthy donors, appoints Pompeo and similar gangsters for key posts, and invests on Israel’s war against Iran and the Axis of Resistance.

If that’s the case, he won’t have to worry about another failed sniper. But if he really tries to run his own independent game, there’s no question he will be a dead man walking.

So the whole Global Majority waits with bated breath. How will Trumpquake translate in the geopolitical MAGA sphere? Sure bets focus on extensive use of private military companies (PMCs) for foreign policy “missions” and selected, targeted military “interventions”. Targets could include any Global South player from Mexico (to “secure the border”) to Venezuela (the Monroe doctrine “securing the oil”), Yemen (to “secure the Red Sea”) and of course Iran (a massive bombing campaign to “secure Israel”).

In a nutshell: no new wars (as Trump promised), just a few targeted incursions. Plus Hybrid War on maximum overdrive. Brazil, watch out: Trumpquake will not tolerate a truly sovereign BRICS member increasing its Global South influence in the “Western Hemisphere”.

Fasten your seatbelts: whatever happens, Trumpquake is bound to be a bumpy ride.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

After Trump Win, RFK Jr. Says ‘Entire Departments’ At The FDA ‘Have To Go’

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 07:45 AM

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who backed President-elect Donald Trump, said Wednesday that the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) bureaucracy should be winnowed down.

Before the election, Trump had floated Kennedy as having a role in his administration, namely targeting federal agencies that oversee health care, food, and drugs.

“There are entire departments, like the nutrition department at the FDA … that have to go—that are not doing their job. They’re not protecting our kids,” Kennedy told MSNBC on Wednesday.

When he was asked if he would remove any health agencies, Kennedy said, “to eliminate the agencies, as long as it requires congressional approval, I wouldn’t be doing that.”

“I can get the corruption out of the agencies,” he added.

Kennedy added in a separate interview with Fox News earlier this week that “we don’t know what I’m going to do. I talked to the president about it yesterday, and he asked me what I wanted, and I said, we’re developing a proposal now.”

He was asked whether he would be appointed as Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary, a position that requires Senate confirmation.

At a Madison Square Garden rally last month, Trump reiterated that he would have Kennedy join his administration and “let him go wild on health.”

“I’m going to let him go wild on the food. I’m going to let him go wild on the medicines,” Trump said.

During the Al Smith dinner that Trump attended last month, he again floated Kennedy as leading his administration’s efforts around food and health.

“We’re going to let him go wild for a little while, then I’m going to have to maybe reign him back, because he’s got some pretty wild ideas, but most of them are really good,” Trump said during the New York City dinner.

“I think he’s a he’s a good man, and he believes, he believes the environment, the healthy people. He wants healthy people, he wants healthy food. And he’s going to do it. He’s going to have a big chance to do it, because we do need that.”

Kennedy and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) are also part of the president-elect’s transition team, along with Trump’s two sons Eric and Donald Jr., businessman Howard Lutnick, and former World Wrestling Entertainment (WWE) executive Linda McMahon.

Speaking to CNN last week, Lutnick was asked about Kennedy and whether he would be appointed as HHS secretary.

Lutnick, however, said that Kennedy would not be “getting a job” at HHS and instead would be seeking federal health data on vaccines.

“He says, ‘If you give me the data, all I want is the data, and I’ll take on the data and show that it’s not safe.’ And then if you pull the product liability [protections], the companies will yank these vaccines right off, off of the market,” Lutnick told the outlet.

Over the past weekend, Kennedy drew headlines when he floated the idea that Trump may seek to ban the addition of fluoride to drinking water, coming after a federal judge ruled that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency should look at recent data and studies showing that fluoridation may lower children’s IQ.

“On January 20, the Trump White House will advise all U.S. water systems to remove fluoride from public water,” Kennedy wrote on X.

Trump and his wife Melania Trump “want to Make America Healthy Again,” he added, repeating a phrase Trump often uses and links to Kennedy.

Trump told NBC News on Sunday that he had not spoken to Kennedy about fluoride yet, “but it sounds okay to me. You know it’s possible.”

Kennedy was running as an independent presidential candidate before he suspended his bid over the summer and endorsing Trump.

He appeared at multiple Trump rallies, including the recent Madison Square Garden event.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

end

END

FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

END

VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

KING REPORT

The King Report November 7, 2024 Issue 7365

Independent View of the News

Due to DJT’s win and GOP control of the Senate: US stocks and Japanese stocks (lower yen) soared; Chinese and European stocks fell; bonds cratered; the dollar soared; precious metals and copper plunged; oil & gasoline fell modestly; crypto currencies soared; and Fangs went postal to the upside.   S&P’s Consumer Staples Index fell as much as 2%; its Real Estate Index declined as much as 3.6%.   Near Noon ET: Dollar Tree -7.64%, Brown-Forman -6.33%, MO -4.345, Constellation Brands -3.87%, CL -3.74%, Mondelez -3.59%, PG -3.55%, and Estee Lauder -3.29%.     Equity Residential -1.17%, AvalonBay Communities -0.96%, Simon Property -0.95%, Regency Centers -0.94%, Federal Reality Inv Trust -0.85%   PFE declined as much as 3.1%.  LLY sank as much as 4.3%.  RFK Jr. has Big Pharma on his naughty list.   RFK Jr. advisor @jamelholley: Sources tell me top five CEOs of pharmaceutical companies are holding an emergency teleconference at 1 PM. A lawyer has confirmed that everyone is in a state of panic! (RFK Jr. wants to ban Big Pharma’s advertising on TV, like Europe does and remove vaccine immunity.)   @RobertKennedyJr: President Trump has asked me to do three things:  1. Clean up the corruption in our government health agencies.  2. Return those agencies to their rich tradition of gold-standard, evidence-based science.  3. Make America Healthy Again by ending the chronic disease epidemic.   S&P Groups 13:00 ET: Energy +5.97%, Financials +5%, Consum Discretion +4.89%, Industrial +4.28%   ESZ hit their momentum peak at 3:50 ET (5954.00).  After a plodding, 6-hour+ decline to 5901.50 at 9:58 ET, ESZs methodically rallied to its price peak of 5967.00 at 15:49 ET.  ESZs slid to 5954 at 15:59 ET.   Perhaps, deposing Biden and replacing him without a primary or convention fight wasn’t a good idea.   The GOP now controls the Senate, probably the House, and the White House.  Team Obama-Harris is bashing Team Biden covertly to the media – and vice versa.  Stories in coming days will be interesting.   @BillAckman: The fact that @KamalaHarris didn’t have the courtesy to face her followers and those who worked so hard for her and thank them speaks volume.   Harris waiting to address base after loss shows ‘lacking a grasp of American democratic tradition’: analysts  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/harris-waiting-address-base-after-loss-shows-lacking-grasp-american-democratic-tradition-analysts   @JoeConchaTV: Kamala is all class, isn’t she? Leaves her supporters hanging into the wee hours of the morning and still hasn’t made any statement. Her political career is over. There’s no coming back from this.  (She can now obtain a cushy part-time teaching post that requires little effort.)   Kamala Harris finally spoke at 16:25 ET.  “I am so proud of the race we ran… with enthusiasm and joy for American’s future… I congratulated Trump on his victory… we owe loyalty not to presidents or a party but to the Constitution of the United States… the fight for our ideals… I will not give up… where the women of American have the right to make decisions about their bodies… the fight for our freedom will take hard work… hard work is good work…  Here’s the thing, the fight will take a while… it doesn’t mean we won’t win… Let us fill the sky with the light of a brilliant, brilliant, billion of stars. The light of optimism, of faith, of truth and service… I thank you all and may God bless you and the USA.”   Pundits expressed surprise that Tim Walz was not present at Harris’s address.  Kamala gave another word salad laden campaign speech.  She did not ‘congratulate’ Trump in her speech.  There were no calls for unity in the speech.  Kamala’s tone was angry and defiant several times.  Harris called for the ‘peaceful transfer of power.’  Does she mean like how Obama peacefully transferred power to Trump? https://x.com/DVATW/status/1854288396056682989   @LauraPowellEsq: A squirrel ran across the stage while everyone was waiting for Kamala’s concession speech.  https://x.com/LauraPowellEsq/status/1854275970041360541   Reportedly, Biden called and congratulated Trump in the early afternoon; Harris called and congratulated DJT later.  PS – DJT would have won by a larger margin if he wasn’t such a (an)…   CNN’s @ScottJenningsKY NAILS IT: “I’m interpreting the results tonight as the revenge of just the regular old working-class American who has been crushed, insulted, condescended to. They’re not garbage, they’re not Nazis, they’re just regular people…” https://x.com/DavidJHarrisJr/status/1854221131114541083   @ianmSC: The biggest story tonight is that the American public has dealt an overwhelming, monumental, debilitating loss to major media outlets.  The newspapers, CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC… they all worked exceptionally hard to carry Kamala across the line and demonize Trump. And it failed.   @DavidSacks: This is a bankruptcy moment for the legacy media. They shrieked Nazi, fascist, traitor, insurrectionist at the top of their lungs for years. The country didn’t believe it. Their spell is broken. Their credibility is destroyed. It’s a new dawn.   @BuckSexton: CBS completely debased itself as a news network, for the worst candidate in living memory, and has nothing to show for it other than the sheer contempt of honest people.   @greggutfeld: When liars got challenged, they lied more — people saw that. the lies no longer worked on them. the repeat hoaxes like Obama’s fine people desperation fell apart in real time. Trump didn’t change America.  The Legacy media did: by smearing, insulting, covering up and intimidating decent people. America had enough.   CNN: Trump’s return to power raises serious questions about the media’s credibility By (infamous DJT detester) Brian Stelter     His defeat of Kamala Harris is raising questions about the media’s credibility, influence, and audience. Some of the questions might not be answerable for years. But journalists are asking each other: What does this “red wave” election say about the information environment in the United States?…     Legacy media “is officially dead,” The Daily Wire podcaster Matt Walsh wrote on X overnight. “Their ability to set the narrative has been destroyed. Trump declared war on the media in 2016. Tonight he vanquished them completely. They will never be relevant again.”…     “Dead” is gross hyperbole, of course, but the comment reflected real concerns that many members of the media have. A severe trust deficit exists between the Trump base and big institutional media outlets… https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/media/trump-reelection-media-credibility-trust/index.html   @NickAdamsinUSA: “This election is something of an indictment on the political information complex. The story that was portrayed was not true. We were just ignoring the fundamentals.” Scott Jennings does a flawless job taking down an entire panel of woke CNN hosts. https://x.com/nickadamsinusa/status/1854083315671736761?t=SQKPCDtsh5NPXM57WrivtA   @townhallcom” MSNBC’s Chris Hayes: If Republicans keep the House, then it’s up to “the fourth estate” and “institutions” to stop Trump. “We’ve seen it before!” https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1854044823541387319   @libsoftiktok: CNN’s Van Jones says it was Republicans who called Trump a fascist Hitler lover, not Democrats. This might be the most Orwellian clip I’ve ever seen. https://t.co/zgpI8m4Xww   @bonchieredstate: Michael Steele tries to explain to the MSNBC panel that normal Americans think Democrats don’t care about them. Molly Jong Fast then jumps in “but isn’t that a disinformation problem, isn’t that a disinformation problem.”  It’s just so perfect. https://twitter.com/bonchieredstate/status/1854085201866981450?s=02   MSNBC star (Joy Reid) blames white women after Kamala Harris loses North Carolina to Trump https://t.co/cZkv9OUuMS   @RealSaavedra: MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough says that Kamala Harris lost to Donald Trump because blacks and Latinos are sexist and Latinos are racist: “A lot of Hispanic voters have problems with black candidates.” Al Sharpton says black men are among “the most” sexist people.  https://t.co/bDMJNS4Mof   @townhallcom: Van Jones: “Whoever came up with ‘Bidenomics’ needs to be put in the corner someplace.”  (We stated this umpteen times!) https://t.co/cF9rFpLG7k   @TomBevanRCP: Regardless of your politics, one salutary side effect of Trump’s win is that we never have to hear from Allan Lichtman or his “keys” again. (He predicted Harris would win.)   @VivekGRamaswamy: Exit polls show that “threats to democracy” was a top issue. MSM thought that meant votes for Kamala but turns out it was exactly the opposite: voters are rejecting censorship, lawfare, and dishonesty.   Elements of the MSM demanded that Trump forgive and forget that ‘they’ impeached him twice, subverted his presidency, issued heinous lies about him, dragged him through various legal ringers, labeled him ‘Hitler,’ tried to bankrupt him, etc. (Don’t forget the 2 assassination attempts)   @KatiePavlich: The same people who called you a fascist, Nazi, and Hitler for supporting Trump are now demanding you unify and be nice to them now that Trump has won.   As a peace offering and sign of unity, Trump should quickly implement two top Democratic priorities:  Nuke the filibuster and expand the SCOTUS by appointing 4 more justices.   @RobProvince: History will have a hard time explaining this… (Biden got 81m votes in 2020 while Hillary got 65m in 2016 and Harris got 67m) https://t.co/8t26E4bjz7   @nataliegwinters: There are 3,144 counties in America and Kamala failed to outperform Biden in a single one.  Let’s be honest.  Those 2020 votes were never real to begin with.   @libsoftiktok: “If Trump wins that Epstein client list is gonna become public” – Elon Musk Nobody in Hollywood is sleeping tonight…   @DavidBahnsen: I believe the biggest message may be in two states that Harris actually won – New Jersey and Illinois.  Harris only winning two deep blue states by 4 or 5 points that Biden won by 17 points is a screaming message about progressive culture war failures.  From crime to police to migrants to school board issues, etc. – even blue states become pragmatic when progressive ideology runs amok.  This is not a political failure; it is a cultural one.  Critical theory and its insidious ideological cousins are failures – and politics follows culture.   @paulsperry_: In their lessons-learned analyses, Dem pundits can’t bring themselves to admit their radical policies–open borders, welfare for illegals, taxpayer-funded trans surgery for prisoners, trans men in girls’ locker rooms, genital mutilation of children–turned off voters. (Go woke; go broke!)   @AriFleischer: The groups Harris did best with tell you why the Ds have big problems. Rich people (those making more than $100k) went from +5 for Biden to +8 for Harris.  The rich are one of the only groups she improved with. Those who never go to religious services were +26 for Harris.    Those who say they have no religion were +40 for Harris. College grads were +8 for Harris and those with post-graduate degrees were +24 for Harris. The D base is college educated, wealthy, non-religious people.  No wonder they’re losing Hispanics and working people.  They are a party that’s increasingly rich, non-religious and elitist – and out of touch.   Corporations that fecklessly adopted DEI and other woke initiatives because they were frightened or conned by the NYC-DC echo chamber will now adjust.   Positive aspects of previous session US stocks soared; precious metals plunged; Fangs and trading sardines led the rally. Energy and banks (DJT deregulation) were the strongest S&P groups.   Negative aspects of previous session Bonds got hammered.  ESZs hit their momentum peak at 3:50 ET.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session What will the Fed and Powell do and say now?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Up   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5909.98 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5936.14; 5864.89   German Chancellor Olaf Scholz dismissed Finance Minister Christian Linder, who had been threatening to have his FDP faction exit the ruling coalition.  Scholz’s government is near collapse.   German coalition holds crisis talks in bid to stave off collapse (Scholz seeks confidence vote on 1/15) Relations between Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) have plumbed to new depths… as they clashed over differing visions on how to reboot a flagging economy… https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germanys-awkward-coalition-faces-make-or-break-moment-2024-11-06/   Today – We erred in writing that Wednesday was Fed Day.  Due to the election, the FOMC skipped its usual Wednesday meeting.  Today is Fed Day; The Street expects a 25bps rate cut.  The FOMC should be honest and state that it cannot make a reliable forecast until DJT’s agenda is adopted.  Therefore, they should go inert until further developments appear, or ‘the data’ dictates action.   After the over-the-moon reaction to Trump’s win, stocks are grossly overbought on a short-term basis and need to retrench.   How can you cut rates with stocks at all-time highs and bonds in the toilet on the perception that Trump’s policies will supercharge the economy?   If the Fed cuts rates, stocks should surge initially but a robust reversal has a high probability, especially if Mr. Bond expresses disgust with a rate cut.  The fact that the ESZ momentum peak occurred at 3:50 ET and they could only improve the price peak by only 0.022% implies that stocks are tired.   Biden will address Americans today about the election at 11:00 ET.   Expected economic data: Q3 Nonfarm Productivity 2.5%, Unit Labor Costs 1.0%; Initial Jobless Claims 223k, Continuing Claims 187m; Sept Wholesale Trade Sales 0.1% m/m, Inventories -0.1%   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5713; 100-day MA: 5604; 150-day MA: 5473; 200-day MA: 5374 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,019; 100-day MA: 40,975; 150-day MA: 40,227; 200-day MA: 39,880 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5929.04 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5112.80 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5509.91 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5677.18 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive– a close below 5821.10 triggers a sell signal   Trump defeated or destroyed: Bush dynasty, GOP Establishment; many RINO Senators and Reps, the Clinton wing of the Democratic Party, the Obama faction, and the legacy media. DJT accepted Biden’s invite to the White House and a meeting will be held “shortly.”   @EricLDaugh: Pollsters coming out of tonight looking pretty good: Atlas Intel, Baris, Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Rasmussen (to name a few) [We mentioned that these pollsters were among the most accurate for 2020 and 2016.]   Des Moines Register pollster Ann Selzer whose ‘gold standard’ poll missed Trump win in Iowa by 16.2 points said she ‘will review her data.’  We already identified her problem.  She had D+3 in her sample when the Iowa electorate is GOP +10.4.    CEO of top pollster Atlas Intel @andrei__roman: Starting today, I will be posting every day a new piece of evidence of how under @gelliottmorris 538 polling averages were systematically manipulated throughout this election cycle to create the “right” narrative rather than reveal the actual truth about what the numbers were… What I am about to do has the aim of re-establishing the credibility of polling profession on stronger foundations. For that to happen, we need to establish the truth.   Politico: 6 takeaways from Trump’s stunning win over Harris – Trump’s victory looks like a realignment.   The former president built a more diverse coalition of voters than any Republican nominee in 20 years, … Trump’s 2016 victory felt like a historical accident. Tuesday feels like a realignment…     Latino voters, once a reliable bulwark of the Democratic base, continued their recent shift right…     Trump won 12 percent and 15 percent of Black voters, respectively, in the two surveys… Biden’s legacy takes a massive hit…  Harris’ gambit for Liz Cheney Republicans fell flat… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/11/06/trump-win-takeaways-00187796   @visegrad24: Trump got the highest percentage of Jewish support for a Republican presidential candidate since 1980.   CBS’s @SydneyHdzTV: President Donald Trump wins in both Hidalgo and Cameron County. A clear shift that the Rio Grande Valley is no longer blue, as it has been historically for decades. Republicans also won almost every election in South Texas Races. (Hispanics want secure borders.)   CNN’s @kaylatausche: The reckoning in Bidenworld, per sources, has been emerged among three schools of thought:  Biden could have won white working class vote; Obama (’16) and Pelosi (’24) are to blame for pushing him aside twice; Perhaps he was more deeply unpopular than anyone grasped   @KonstantinKisin: For my British and European friends who are “shocked” and “surprised”, here are 10 reasons you didn’t see this coming. Read this short post and then read the replies from our American friends who will confirm what I’m saying… https://twitter.com/KonstantinKisin/status/1854151133385613690?s=02   @visegrad24: Before the US elections: 1% of Germans thought Trump would win the election. 99% of Germans thought Harris would win. Clearly the European mainstream media completely misled their viewers about the situation on the ground in the USA.   Red Neck Whiskey founder @johnrich: There are many reasons I voted for DJT. The main one is my hope he rounds up every last pedophile and child trafficker in America, hauls them off… and destroys their operations. Our nation will never have God’s favor until we stop the killing and abusing of innocence.   @AceofSpadesHQ: ALASKA REPEALS RANKED-CHOICE VOTING, A SCAM IMPLEMENTED ONLY TO PROTECT LISA MURKOWSKI (GOP Sen that detests DJT)   Prop 36, which would increase penalties for theft and drug arrests, passed by California voters https://fox40.com/news/your-local-election-headquarters/prop-36-which-would-increase-penalties-for-theft-and-drug-crimes-projected-to-pass-ap-says/   Progressive LA DA George Gascón outed by voters over failed criminal justice reform policies https://t.co/63v6USpLiO   Possibly the best video lampooning Trump’s win (Set to “Fortunate Son.”): https://x.com/fredjellybeans/status/1854049913992028662?t=SQKPCDtsh5NPXM57WrivtA   Final thoughts:  Over the past many years, we have relentlessly warned that headline polls numbers reveal little until you ‘do the work’ and analyze the sample as well as the questions in the polls.  Plus, the response rate to pollster has been collapsing, especially among Republicans and Independents.   Elon Musk is the most powerful industrialist and media chief in the known universe.   JD Vance and Ron DeSantis will lead the GOP after Trump.  Democrats, after beaucoup soul-searching and internecine warfare, must jettison their geriatric leadership (Pelosi, Schumer, Sanders, etc.) and find new leadership as well as nationally acceptable candidates for 2028.    California Governor Newsome and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer are MSM favorites.  However, it is unlikely that Forgotten America will go for another West Coast leftist or a woman that looks meaner and more unlikeable than Hillary Clinton.  Dem leftists are likely to flock to the wacky Dem Rep AOC.   Republicans retake Michigan House, making Gov. Gretchen Whitmer a lame duck https://trib.al/kE2GHo6   Illinois Governor Pritzker has no national appeal as do most other deep blue state high officials.  Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear is probably the most moderate of top Democrat high officials.  Pennsylvania Governor Shapiro, the VP candidate that Harris should have chosen, will be considered.   For the past two general election cycles, Dems and their media stooges proclaimed that it was a priority to turn Texas ‘blue.’  Ironically, it was Dems’ loose immigration policies that pushed Hispanics/Latino voters to the GOP and turned Texas more ‘red.’   With Hispanic/Latino voters moving to the right, if Dems try to stifle Trump’s avowed mass deportation operation or other securing the border initiatives, they will suffer in 2026.   Some corporations that own legacy media outlets will move to reform those outlets, which will include removing personalities (they sure aren’t journalists) that are overly unhinged, repeatedly spew egregious lies, and habitual make stupid statements and accusations.    Trump could get as many as 3 more SCOTUS nominees.  Conservative justices Alito and Thomas could retire.  Health issues that have plagued Sotomayer for several years could force her to retire.  In fact, Dems tried to pressure Sotomayer to retire for at least a year so Biden could appoint a liberal to her seat.   Three GOPe Senators are the favorites to become Senate Leader: (Thune SD 63 years old, Barrasso WY 72 years old, Cornyn TX 72 years old).  It will be interesting to see if a senator more aligned to DJT, and who is younger than GOPe senators, (Cruz, Hawley, Cotton) emerges.  FL Sen. Scott, who challenged and lost to McConnell for Senate Majority Leader said he will run for the position now.   DJT and Republicans should quickly pass voter reform measures: ID, no ballot harvesting, etc.   The GOP’s new ground game with the determined effort to register new voters and turnout low propensity voters should be enhanced.   GOP leadership should move ASAP to solidify and expand the increased minority and white women vote.  DJT-hating GOP senators (Collins ME and Murkowski AK) will have diminished influence.  If Vance or DeSantis become the GOP presidential pick, they are likely to garner far more votes from women.  No matter how to slice and dice it, most women detest Trump for his behavior and churlishness.  Many women (and men) held their noses and voted for his policies, not him.  As Ann Coulter asserted years ago, ‘Americans want Trumpism without Trump.’   @ggreenwald: On CNN, @ScottJenningsKY correctly describes how the whole NeverTrump industry — the Bill Kristols and Lincoln Projects and Bulwark and Dispatch – are the biggest cons we’ve seen for awhile, accomplishing nothing other than bilking liberals out of cash to buy new beach houses. https://x.com/ggreenwald/status/1854248580917477838   Dems and the MSM now have NO use for Liz Cheney, Adam Kitzinger, and other GOP Trump haters.   @JesseKellyDC: Trump’s most important choice will be his AG and there’s not a close second. A reformer who intends to clean the filth out of the DOJ & FBI is an absolute must…   @CollinRugg: A depressed Letitia James (NY AG) declares she is a “guardian of the law,” tells New Yorkers not to be scared about Donald Trump being president. Lmao. I’m so ready for these next four years. James said she has a “contingency plan” in response to Trump winning the election.     “So here we are. We’ve studied their platforms. We’ve identified certain possibilities… We’ve created contingency plans.” “So no matter what the next administration throws at us, we are ready. We are ready to respond to their attacks.” “This is not the time to be fearful, New York. But faithful. And steadfast. Knowing that I as the attorney general, along with my entire team, we are guardians of the law. And we are prepared, my friends, to fight back.”  https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1854249409565069676   @realTrentLeisy: According to Fox News, DOJ is now confirming that Jack Smith will be gone before Trump is sworn in. They also confirmed that Jack Smith’s cases will also be dropped.   @MattWolking: In 2016, the Democrat president promised a peaceful transition of power. We now know that the White House was engaged in a conspiracy with domestic and foreign intelligence operatives to kneecap Trump and deny him presidential authority, based on the fabricated, Clinton-funded Steele dossier.  The most important question right now: What is happening behind the scenes that we don’t yet know about, with the aim of negating the fundamental changes that Americans voted for?   Fox’s Jesse Walters claims sources tell him that Kamala Harris intends to run for POTUS in 2028; Obama is slamming the Clintons for quickly endorsing Harris; plus, Newsome and Shapiro are happy.   If Kamala runs in 2028, will she allow Team Obama to run her campaign again?   The media talking heads that excoriated Americans for NOT voting for a black woman stridently commanded Americans to vote for the inept and flawed Harris because she was a black woman!   How will Dems defeat Vance or DeSantis when these two and far more likable and smarter than DJT?   If DJT expels millions of illegal immigrants and big blue states keep losing population to red states, how many Congressional districts/seats will CA, NY, IL, and NJ lose; and how many Congressional seats will TX, FL, TN, etc. gain after the 2030 Census?   @FoxBusiness: Harris campaign and allies spent more than $1.4B on political ads in losing race against Trump   To reiterate what we told decades about the US electorate by prominent pollster Al Sindlinger: The most important issue is consumers’ checkbooks.  It really is the economy, stupid! Personal safety: Crime and sometimes threatening foreign affairs is the 2nd most important issue. Sometimes an unexpected factor appears.  All things being equal, the most likeable candidate wins.   Zelensky holds call with Trump to congratulate him on election victory https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-holds-call-with-trump-to-congratulate-him-on-election-victory/   Italy PM Giorgia Meloni had a phone call with Trump.   India PM Narendra Modi @narendramodi: Had a great conversation with my friend, President @realDonaldTrump, congratulating him on his spectacular victory. Looking forward to working closely together once again to further strengthen India-US relations across technology, defence, energy, space and several other sectors.   The Iran rial fell to a record low yesterday.   @BridgetPhetasy: As if there were any doubt, Hollywood is dead and with it, celebrity influence. Those days are gone and they’re never coming back.   Does anyone have a checklist of the celebrities that threatened to flee the US if DJT won?   @DogRightGirl: Bette Midler deleted her X acct  https://x.com/DogRightGirl/status/1854206926730526782   @TheBabylonBee: Trump Defeats Kamala, Hollywood, News Media, Deep State, FBI, Universities, DOJ, Political Experts, Science, Medical Community, All of Diddy’s Homies https://buff.ly/4flsoHl   @nicksortor: President Trump has announced he will be holding a HUGE 250th Birthday Party for America… Trump says it will be called the “Great American State Fair,” held in Iowa, and feature pavilions from all 50 states… https://x.com/nicksortor/status/1854323792459235438

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

Radical Left Activates Anti-Trump Protests As AOC Riles Up Rioters

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 07:20 AM

Not even 24 hours after President-elect Donald Trump won more votes in Illinois this general election than in the previous two, and after winning the US election in a massive red wave sweep, far-left protesters gathered outside the Trump Hotel in Obama’s Chicago.

The protests appear to have been highly organized and well-planned before the election, given the coordination among activists, the hundreds—if not thousands—of protesters—many holding signs—and the likely pre-approved protest routes from City Hall. 

Organizers shouted into megaphones, “Trump is a fascist” and “racist,” echoing hate speech spewed by the defunct Harris-Walz campaign in the months leading up to November 5.

Here’s the mobilization effort by far-left radicals:

Anti Trump protestors have turned Chicago into JNU almost 😂😂

Azaadi Azaadi slogans when?? pic.twitter.com/LOAa6oFA6t

— Incognito (@Incognito_qfs) November 7, 2024

It's hasn't even been 24 hours and the protests in Chicago are starting pic.twitter.com/jce4W4atD8

— TaraBull (@TaraBull808) November 7, 2024

Massive Anti-Trump protest in Chicago hours after President Elect Donald Trump's victory.
pic.twitter.com/0HYIkj6s9k

— Daily Loud (@DailyLoud) November 7, 2024

Separately, far-left activist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was on X, saying the quiet part out loud: “There are … mass movements of people that mobilize to protect one another in times of fascism and authoritarianism … and this is the era that we are poised to enter.”

🚨FEARMONGER AOC ON DONALD TRUMP:

"We are about to enter a political period of fascism and authoritarianism. It is not uncommon to jail political dissidents or legislative opponents."

The audacity of the projection and hypocrisy is jaw-dropping. Wild.pic.twitter.com/a8n79nRxtN

— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital) November 7, 2024

In other words, AOC appears to be giving marching orders to her followers, whom some Marxists regard as “agents of change” or “agents of history.” These folks will be herded like cattle—or “useful idiots”—onto city streets by a mysterious web of nonprofits funded by dark money from leftist billionaires.

The Democrat’s playbook to potentially unleash another wave of social unrest through activism campaigns, with command-and-control centers operated by nonprofits, will likely not be tolerated under a Trump administration.

It’s not just the Trump administration; it’s the American people – a strong majority now – who won’t tolerate far-left activism that burns buildings and trashes businesses. This new path in history has already shifted the Overton Window back towards the center. Plus, politics will focus on law and order instead of nation-killing progressive policies that push for destruction.

END

Looks like a scandal is brewing with debts of over 20 million dollars in campaign debt that cannot be paid

(zerohedge)

Senior Harris Advisor Deletes X Account As “Massive Scandal” Brews Over $20 Million In Campaign Debt

by Tyler Durden

Thursday, Nov 07, 2024 – 10:30 AM

Former senior Obama advisor-turned-senior Kamala Harris advisor David Plouffe has deleted his X account after suggesting on Wednesday that Harris’ landslide defeat was Joe Biden’s fault for not dropping out soon enough, and right as a massive campaign debt scandal erupts.

“We dug out of a deep hole but not enough. A devastating loss,” Plouffe posted to X – in what many interpreted as a dig at Biden.

And now, Plouffe and X are no more.

David Plouffe has been unburdened from posts that have been. https://t.co/8YqM0VPGDH pic.twitter.com/K0AolWvWq3

— Stephen L. Miller (@redsteeze) November 7, 2024

That said, was this about more than salty tears?

20 Million In Debt

After raising over $1 billion and left with $118 million in the bank as of October 16, the Harris campaign ended the 2024 election season with “at least $20 million in debt,” according to Politico‘s Christopher Cadelago.

Kamala Harris's campaign ended with at least $20 million in debt, per two sources familiar. Harris raised over $1 billion and had $118 million in the bank as of Oct. 16.

— Christopher Cadelago (@ccadelago) November 7, 2024

Breitbart CEO Matt Boyle says a Kamala campaign staffer “said there is a massive scandal here worthy of an audit.“

Ok so this just got very explosive. A Kamala campaign staffer who saw these posts called me just now and said there is a massive scandal here worthy of an audit.

The $20 million debt thing is real. Rob Flaherty, this staffer said, is currently shopping around the Kamala… https://t.co/7EJ9ruKQzs

— Matthew Boyle (@mboyle1) November 7, 2024

Boyle’s post in its entirety:

Ok so this just got very explosive. A Kamala campaign staffer who saw these posts called me just now and said there is a massive scandal here worthy of an audit.

The $20 million debt thing is real. Rob Flaherty, this staffer said, is currently shopping around the Kamala fundraising email list to anyone who wants it to try to raise the money back. This includes other campaigns and outside groups.

Flaherty is the deputy campaign manager and reports to Jen O’Malley Dillon.

“Jen blew through a billion dollars in a few months and it was all Jen’s idea to do all the concerts.” — Kamala campaign adviser told me

This source added that O’Malley Dillon did these “concerts,” like Katy Perry, Lizzo, Eminem, Bruce Springsteen et cetera at the expense of “prioritizing and spending money on social media and other campaign priorities.”

Apparently a group in Georgia had to lay off 100 people because they couldn’t pay them.

It’s unclear at this time if the campaign PAID the talent to perform but the cost of production for the events was “immense.”

What’s more, this Kamala campaign staffer said several people who were working for the Kamala Harris for President campaign are still awaiting several overdue payments they were promised for their work. IE, they didn’t pay the staff.

This Kamala campaign staffer said to me of @jomalleydillon

“People didn’t like working with her. Many people on the campaign felt like we lost because Kamala wasn’t allowed to run her campaign. They were running Joe Biden’s campaign instead of a Kamala campaign. Obnoxious and very much a gate keeper and interfering with the vice president’s people who were trying to do their job.”

According to data from the Federal Election Commission (FEC), the Harris campaign had received over $1 billion up until October 16 – including when it was the Joe Biden campaign. 

Over the same period, the Trump campaign took in $392 million and spent $345 million.

Democrats spent $1.1 billion on aired advertising and associated reservations, according to AdImpact – a site which monitors the cost and content of ads, Newsweek reports.

According to The New York Times, the Harris campaign spent “six figures” to fly banners over four NFL games in October in an attempt to reach male voters in swing states. The Guardian reported in November that it also spent “a reported $450,000 a day” to have ads displayed on the Las Vegas Sphere in the swing state of Nevada.

Ultimately, the messaging did not appear to hit its mark(s). Speaking to Newsweek, Mark Shanahan, an American politics expert who teaches at the University of Surrey in the U.K., said Harris “never really landed” her economic message during the presidential election campaign.

“Once again, the Democrats underestimated the appeal of Trump. He turns politics into a soap opera and it keeps many more than his MAGA loyalists tuned in. Allied to that, he offered simple messages: the economy is poor and he can fix it; and America’s troubles start at its borders, and he can fix that too,” said Shanahan. “Harris had too little time to introduce herself to America. She never really landed her messages on the economy with great clarity, and the one area we really thought would boost her, around reproductive rights, really didn’t get the expected cut-through with voters.”

. . . 

GREG HUNTER

SEE YOU THURSDAY