NOV 13/ANOTHER RAID AS THE COMEX IS IN CHAOS//GOLD CLOSED DOWN $19.30 TO $2580.80//SILVER CLOSED 16 CENTS TO $30.54 //PLATINUM CLOSED $9.00 TO $938.45 WHILE PALLADIUM CLOSED DOWN $10.95 TO $937.40//FOR THE 4TH CONSECUTIVE DAY OVER 33,000 T.A.S. CONTRACTS WERE INITIALTED (SPREADERS)//GOLD COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD//NETHERLANDS INITIATES BORDER CONTROLS AFTER THE SOCCER GAME FIASCO//ISRAEL VS HAMAS/ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH UPDATES//EXCELLENT COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM EUROPEAN EXPERT TOM LUONGO//USA CPI OUT AND STILL REMAINS HIGH/ TRUMP PICKS CONSERVATIVES FOR HIS CABINET YET THE SENATE PICKS RINO THUNE//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3605,74 DOWN 18.78 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2026,53 DOWN 13.91 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,437,93 DOWN 9.93 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)
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EXCHANGE;
JPMorgan stopped 0/0
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 0 NOTICES FOR 0 OZ 0.0 TONNES
total notices so far: 2548 contracts for 254,800 Oz (7.925 tonnes)
FOR NOV
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 0 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 870 for 4.350 million oz
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.53 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.53 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.16 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY OUT OF THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV//
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.157 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 173 CONTRACTS TO 147,526 AND CONTINUING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.16 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 977 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.16 IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND FAILED. THEY HAD CONSIDERABLE SUCCESS MONDAY BUT FAILED YESTERDAY AND TODAY/. WE HAD ATTEMPTED SHORT COVERING BY OUR SPECS DURING THE COMEX TIME ZONE TUESDAY BUT TO NO AVAIL.. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS 1150 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A MEGA HUMONGOUS 3946 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUMONGOUS 2015 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR SMALL GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY’S COMEX SESSIONS.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY YESTERDAY AND AGAIN TODAY. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. IS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX NOW EVERY DAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESSDAY NIGHT: A MEGA HUMONGOUS 3946 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.16) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A HUMONGOUS NET GAIN OF 2015 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUGE 1150 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING REMAINS AT 4.535 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 4.535 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS//HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 3946 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED A HUGE 1038 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 9DAYS, total 12,790 contracts: OR 63.950 MILLION OZ (1421 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 63.950 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 63.95 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED INCREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 183 CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN OF $0.16 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1150 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 2.810 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 0 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 4.565 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUMONGOUS SIZED GAIN OF 977 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED 3946 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESDAY COMEX SESSION THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT AND THAT IS WHAT THEY DID IN A BIG WAY TODAY!
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (3946) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.0 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4557 OI CONTRACTS TO 535,981 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED A HUGE 3591 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (4557 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR LOSS OF $11.40 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7100 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.357 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 10.357 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $11.40 LOSS IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX RAID///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 5602 OI CONTRACTS (17.42 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 7100 OZ)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A HUGE SIZED 10,199 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 535,981
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5602 CONTRACTS WITH 4597 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A HUGE SIZED 10,199 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5602 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS SIZED AND CRIMINAL 33,535 CONTRACTS ISSUED AND THIS IS THE FOURTH DAY IN A ROW FOR A MEGA ISSUANCE OF GREATER THAN 30,000 T.A.S. CONTRACTS. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS GREAT IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS RAID OPERATION. SEEMS THAT THEY WERE EXHAUSTED WEDNESDAY AS THERE WAS NO RAID.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A HUGE SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (10,199 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 4557 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5602 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 7100 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 10.357 TONNES
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE WITH GREAT SUCCESS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TODAY, TAS USED TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///MEGA MEGA HUMONGOUS T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 33,535 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 63,331 CONTRACTS OF 6,333,100 OZ OR 196.99 TONNES IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6641 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 9 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 196.99 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 196.99 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 5.54% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 196.99 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH/MAYBE A RECORD ISSUANCE MONTH)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 173 CONTRACTS OI TO 147,526 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1150 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1150 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1150 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 173 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1150 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 977 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 10.075 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR SMALL $0.16 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.31 PTS OR 0.51%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 23.54 PTS OR 0.12%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 654.43 OR 1.66%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.76%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2091 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2197// Oil DOWN TO 68.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.94 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 4,557 CONTRACTS TO 535,981 WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.40 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET IN NUMBER LONGS DESPITE THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUMONGOUS NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (10,199).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING YESTERDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE/
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT 197 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS LIKE YESTERDAY, AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING PRICE OF GOLD
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING, MONDAY AND TUESDAY..
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUMONGOUS SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 10,199 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 10,199 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 10,199 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5602 CONTRACTS IN THAT 10,199 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 4557 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $11.40 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, A MEGA MEGA SIZED 33,535 CONTRACTS, WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). THIS IS THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE 30,000 + DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S BY THE CROOKS.
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND ESPECIALLY WITH THIS WEEK’S TWO CONSECUTIVE RAIDS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (10.357 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 10.357 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $11.40/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A FAIR GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY TUESDAY AND AGAIN TODAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS IN FULL FORCE. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL TUESDAY EVENING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 6.379 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S STRONG QUEUE JUMP OF 71 CONTRACTS OR 700 OZ (0.2208 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD. MOSTLY LIKELY THIS IS THE FRBNY DESPERATELY TRYING TO EXTINGUISH ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL SHORT FALL OF 93 TONNES
//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 10.357 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 10.357 TONNES (WHICH FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $11.40
WE HAD 502 CONTRACTS ADDED TO THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2051 CONTRACTS OR 205,100 OZ (6.379 TONNES)
400.825 oz one good London delivery bar leaves London vault.
.
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz
NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz
73,947.30 OZ BRINKS 2300 KILOBARS
No of oz served (contracts) today
0 notice(s) 0 OZ 0.000 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
782 contracts 78,200 OZ 2.243 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
2548 notices 254,800oz 7.925 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposits
into Brinks 73,947.300 oz
total deposits 73,947.300 oz
withdrawals: 1
i) Out of London/JPMorgan enhanced: 400.85 oz
or one London good delivery bars leaves London England vaults
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 400.85 oz
adjustments: 1
JPMorgan: 14,034.972 oz leaves customer account and enters registered acct.
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 782 contracts having GAINED 60 contracts. We had 11 contracts served on TUESDAY so we gained 71 contract as these guys underwent a HUGE queue jump of 7100 oz (0.2208 TONNES OF GOLD)
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 18,564 CONTRACTS TO 280,647
JANUARY GAINED 37 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 347
FEBRUARY GAINED 12,134 CONTRACTS TO 183,282 .
We had 0 contracts filed for today representing 0 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 0 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2548 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(782 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz per contract( equals 333,000 OZ OR 10.357 TONNES.
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (2548 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (782 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (0 x 100 oz which equals 333,000 oz (10.357 TONNES) +
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 10.357 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,417,876.837 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,829,907.182/// 243.54tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,597,969.,155 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,199,652 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 182.84 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 13. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE NOV 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,423,970.109 oz CNT ASAHI HSBC
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
28,211.656 oz
Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (0 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
37 contracts (185,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
870 Contracts (4.350 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 1 customer deposit
i) Into Delaware 28,211.656 oz
total customer deposits 595,475.100oz
We had 3 withdrawals
i) Out of CNT 209,679.03 oz
ii) Out of ASAHI 615,308.300 oz
iii) Out of Brinks 598,982.779 oz
total withdrawal 1,423,970.100 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/311.292million or 43,04%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 70.073MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 311.292 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 37 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 37 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 37 NOTICES FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 0 CONTRACTS OR 0 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 7718 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 78,053 CONTRACTS
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 25 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 1110
.
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for 0.0 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 94,945 huge// t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 870x 5,000 oz = 4.350 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (37) and the number of notices served upon today (0)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month: 870 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(37) number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.535 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 4.535 million oz.
There are 70.073 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
OCT 3 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 2WITH GOLD DOWN $20.05 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 2.88 TONNES OF GOLD INOT THE GLD. // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 874.82 TONNES
OCT 1 WITH GOLD UP $28,55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 30 WITH GOLD DOWN $6.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 5.18 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD// .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.94 TONNES
SEPT 27 WITH GOLD DOWN $26.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 26 WITH GOLD UP $11.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 TONNES
SEPT 25WITH GOLD UP $9.25 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// A DEPOSIT OF 1.73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD//////INVENTORY RESTS AT 877,12 ONNES
SEPT 24WITH GOLD UP $23.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD ./// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 23 WITH GOLD UP $6.65 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,43 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 ONNES
SEPT 20 WITH GOLD UP $32.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1,73 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD../// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 873,96ONNES
SEPT 19 WITH GOLD UP $17,05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 18 WITH GOLD UP $5.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD/// /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
SEPT 17WITH GOLD DOWN $15.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A HUGE DEPOSIT OF 1.52 TONNES INTO THE GLD /:// //////INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 870.53 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
OCT 3WITH SILVER UP 69 CENTS :HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.643 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV//.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 467.555MILLION OZ
OCT 2WITH SILVER DOWN $0.23 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 469.198MILLION OZ
OCT 1 WITH SILVER UP $0.30 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.368 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.198MILLION OZ
SEPT30 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.33 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 1.094 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 470.566MILLION OZ
SEPT27WITH SILVER DOWN $0.58 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY: A DEPOSIT OF 4.653 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 469.472MILLION OZ
SEPT26WITH SILVER UP $0.29 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464.819 MILLION OZ
SEPT25WITH SILVER DOWN $0.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.281MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 464,819 MILLION OZ
SEPT24 WITH SILVER UP $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A DEPOSIT OF 9,305 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 467,100 MILLION OZ
SEPT23 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.39 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.824MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 457.795MILLION OZ
SEPT20 WITH SILVER UP $0.08 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT19 WITH SILVER UP $0.85 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.46 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 459,619 MILLION OZ
SEPT18 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.29 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,551 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 461.079 MILLION OZ
SEPT17 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.13 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY:. A WITHDRAWALOF 5.976 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/. /: .///./// /INVENTORY AT SLV 462MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 475.157 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
The shakeout in gold and silver markets was triggered by Trump’s landslide. All US markets are responding with conventional confusion, ignoring the contradictions and dangers in Trump’s polices
To put gold’s $200 decline in perspective, the technical chart above shows a normal bull market consolidation testing the 55-day moving average which has generally provided support since 2023. Will this support hold? We look at the dynamics behind current events.
Clearly, with a strong case for higher inflation being made by Trump’s trade tariff policies, we can say with a high degree of certainty that bond yields are going to rise. Here is the chart of the UST 10-year note:
Once it clears 5%, it looks set to run considerably higher.
There is a convenient myth that rising interest rates and bond yields are bad for gold. This error stems from the 1981—2002 bear market in gold, when physical gold bearing a leasing rate of less than 2% was used as the basis of a carry trade leveraging up into US Treasury bills yielding multiples of that. Indeed, the legacy of this gold trade, which has gone missing into markets, is still likely to come back and bite participating governments who were glad of the leasing income at the time.
When gold is in a bull market, it is an entirely different matter. Back in 2020, T-bills yielded close to zero and gold was $1500. Today, 3-month T-bills yield 4.54%, which demolishes the yield relation myth. Furthermore, between 1970—1981 prime rates soared from about 6.5% to 20%, while gold rose 24 times from $35 to $850.
So we know that the hit on the gold price is based on a myth. But so long as the myth persists, paper markets will attempt to behave accordingly. But those that don’t buy the myth are foreign central banks and their governments, particularly in Asia but also in Eastern Europe and elsewhere who are grabbing all the physical that comes available. For them, this is a heaven-sent opportunity to take in more physical — if it is available. This is a problem, for all the action is in paper markets being driven by those with a different agenda: establishment actors with no experience of current market conditions.
Interestingly, the strain between bullion and forms of gold credit are already showing. Comex stands-for-delivery this year so far amount to 129,335 gold contracts, or 402.27 tonnes. Clearly, while the bullion banks, swaps, and hedge funds play their games increasingly other players see mounting dangers.
The real problem for the dollar is the enormous mountain of Federal debt, currently at just under $36 trillion. Combine that with a new inflation problem driven by higher tariffs, rapidly, shortening average maturities, and an outlook for rising (not falling) interest rates and bond yields, and the US Government faces escalating funding costs. In other words, it is in a debt trap from which the only escape is to not cut interest rates, but the budget deficit.
Cutting the deficit is easier said than done. Libertarians and others make the mistake of thinking it is simple: it’s not. Political reality, even for Trump aided by Elon Musk makes it very difficult, and as a best case it will take time and legislation which has to pass through both houses driven by vested interests.
Meanwhile, foreign holders of some $32 trillion and underlying dollar-denominated financial assets are far from convinced about Trump, who they see as bringing uncertainty to the world economy, not resolution. The fact of the matter is they see not just the US$, which Steve Hanke describes as the least dirty shirt, but debt traps emerging in the euro, yen, and sterling taking out all of the G7’s currencies.
So what are these sceptics doing? They are getting the hell out of currencies, which are credit, into the sanctity of real money, which is gold. And far from higher interest rates being a headwind against the gold price, they threaten an increasingly imminent decline and collapse of all credit denominated in these currencies and the currencies themselves.
I return to the technical chart at the head of this post. Gold could go lower towards the longer-term moving average, of course, but these are paper prices leading to an increasing squeeze on bullion liquidity. Given what lies ahead, only a fool would sell bullion to the desperadoes seeking to close their shorts.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 198 ANDREW MAGUIRE WITH PETER KRAUTH
TOPIC SILVER SUPPLY CRUNCH!!
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: ALUMINA
.
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
END
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 17.31 PTS OR 0.51%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 23.54 PTS OR 0.12%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 654.43 OR 1.66%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.76%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2091 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2197// Oil DOWN TO 68.14 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.94 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MIXED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2091
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2197
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 17.31 PTS OR 0.51%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 23.43 PTS OR 0.12%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 654/43 PTS OR 1.66%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 105.88 EURO RISES TO 1.0626 UIP 9 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.034 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 154.84…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD UP TO +2.3880 Italian 10 Yr bond yield UP to 3.654 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD UP TO 3.119
3i Greek 10 year bond yield UP TO 3.241
3j Gold at $2610.10 /Silver at: 30.85 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 35/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 98.60
3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.84 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.034% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8822 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9376 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.414 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.551 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.349 UP 1 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.36…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.560 UP 6 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.286 UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.138 UP 2 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures, Global Stocks Slide Ahead Of Key Inflation Report
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 08:23 AM
US equity futures, and global markets dropped for the second day in a row on Wednesday as rising yields and a stronger dollar dented the euphoric sentiment behind the Trump rally, and as investors awaited key US inflation data amid concerns that Trump’s proposed America-First policies will reignite price growth. As of 8:00am S&P500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 0.2% into the CPI print which is expected to rise for the fourth month (full preview here). Pre-mkt, Mag7 is mixed, and semis are lower; Banks, Energy, Industrials, and Healhcare are seeing a bid. Treasuries steadied after a renewed selloff Tuesday while the dollar was flat after earlier rising beyond 155 per dollar for the first time since July, raising the risk that Japan will intervene to slow the depreciation; the EURUSD briefly dropped to 1.0594 the lowest in a year. Commodities are higher led by Energy and Precious Metals. CPI and five Fed speakers are the macro focus for today as the earnings calendar thins out.
In premarket trading, Cava Group surged 15% after the Mediterranean restaurant chain increased its annual projections for comparable sales. Chegg tumbles 15% after the education technology company gave a fourth-quarter forecast that was weaker than expected. Tesla (TSLA) gains 1.6% and Roivant (ROIV) rises 3% after President-elect Donald Trump picked billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new department that will aim to make the government more efficient. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Dave Inc. (DAVE) rises 34% after the financial services firm boosted its full-year revenue outlook.
Groupon (GRPN) tumbles 20% after the shopping deals website cut its adjusted Ebitda guidance for the full year.
Instacart (CART) falls 7% after the online grocery delivery company gave a weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter Ebitda forecast.
Rivian (RIVN) rises 8% after Volkswagen raised investment plans in the electric-vehicle maker by $800 million.
Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) jumps 24% after providing a 4Q revenue forecast that beat estimates, fueled by more Electron launches scheduled in November and December.
Rocket Cos. (RKT) tumbles 13% after the mortgage lender issued a weaker-than-anticipated adjusted revenue forecast for the current quarter.
Spirit Airlines (SAVE) slumps 70% as the company is closing in on a deal with creditors that would restructure its crushing debt load in bankruptcy court after discussions for a tie-up with rival Frontier Group Holdings fell apart.
Spotify (SPOT) rise 8% after the audio-streaming company reported 3Q results that beat expectations on both margins and users.
ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI) drops 14% after the infrastructure software company gave a revenue forecast that disappointed analysts.
According to Bloomberg, traders are adding inflation hedges and pricing in fewer interest-rate cuts next year amid the threat that Trump’s pro-growth agenda could unleash price pressures. Today’s US data is expected to show the overall consumer price index rose by 0.2% for a fourth month.
“We’ve been pouring our way into long-dated inflation linked bonds in the US where I see the inflation risk as the highest,” Freddie Lait, managing partner at Latitude Investment Management in London, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “I would look at the Trump win and think that became more likely.”
The president elect’s anti-trade stance is already taking a toll on assets in the developing world. An MSCI gauge of equities excluding the US is posting its worst day in three months, while an index of emerging market currencies is close to erasing this year’s gains. China’s yuan hit a three-month low Tuesday, forcing authorities to set the currency’s reference rate higher.
European stocks are flat in early trading Wednesday, pausing after a selloff in the previous session; the Stoxx 600 is flat at 502.01. Siemens Energy and Just Eat Takeaway both rose more than 20%. Smiths Group and Dowlais rallied by a similiar amount before paring the surge. Here are the biggest movers Wednesday:
Siemens Energy surges as much as 21%, the most since 2020, taking the stock to a record high. The company increased its medium-term targets, boosted by demand in its grid tech business
AstraZeneca shares gain as much as 3.2%, continuing a recovery into a fourth day following last week’s slump, after Nordea and Intron Health both upgrade their ratings to buy
Just Eat Takeaway shares soar as much as 23% after the food delivery company announced it’s selling Grubhub to Marc Lore’s Wonder Group for an enterprise value of $650 million
RWE jumps as much as 8.9%, the most in over two years, after the German energy company announced a €1.5 billion buyback, which Citi sees as the most positive element in today’s earnings
Smiths Group briefly surged to a record high on Wednesday as the more than 150-year-old British engineering firm reported a strong quarter and increased its revenue guidance
Dowlais shares rise as much as 21%, the most ever, after the British auto engineering specialist published results that were described as much better than feared by analysts at Jefferies
SoftwareOne shares gain as much as 14% after the Swiss IT service provider announced a step-up in cost savings and gave investors a February deadline for its take-private discussions
Babcock International shares jump as much as 19%, briefly touching their highest level since 2020, after the support services provider delivered stronger earnings growth than expected
Lundbeck shares rise as much as 7.2%, the most in almost six months, after the Danish pharmaceuticals firm reported revenue and net income for 3Q that beat market expectations
Ypsomed drops as much as 5.9% after the supplier of auto-injectors reported 1H Ebit which missed estimates. The company also said it has initiated the sale process of its diabetes care business
Jenoptik drops as much as 6.1% after Hauck & Aufhaeuser downgrades the German optoelectronics firm to hold from buy and slashes its price target to a Street-low
Earlier in the session, Asian equities slumped again, headed for their lowest close since September, amid continued selling in the region’s technology stocks. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 1.3%, with TSMC and Samsung Electronics the biggest laggards. A guage of the region’s technology stocks fell as much as 1.4%. The region’s stocks tracked US peers lower after Treasury yields spiked ahead of data expected to show an uneven path of easing consumer price pressures. South Korea led losses in the region as global funds sold shares in companies that are vulnerable to Trump’s protectionist trade policy. Benchmarks in India, Japan, Australia and Taiwan also declined. Stocks in China were volatile before closing higher. The onshore CSI 300 index rose 0.6%, while a gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong erased a drop of as much as 1.3% to close little changed. Worries over an escalating trade war with the US and China’s unclear prospects for recovery remain as headwinds for investors.
In FX, a gauge of the dollar was little changed Wednesday near two-year highs. Dollar strength has pushed the yen beyond 155 per dollar for the first time since July, raising the risk that Japan will intervene to slow the depreciation. The EURUSD briefly dropped to a new one-year low below 1.06 before rebounding.
In rates, treasuries staged a minor rebound from Tuesday’s sharp selloff ahead of key US inflation data due later on Wednesday. US 10-year yields fall 1 bp to 4.41%. That’s put the brakes on the recent dollar rally with the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index near flat. Yields are 1bp-2bp richer on the day from belly to long-end with front-end little changed, flattening 2s10s spread by ~2bp; it steepened 3.5bp in Tuesday’s selloff. The 10-year yield around 4.42% is less than 2bp richer on the day, outperforming bunds and gilts in the sector by 4bp and 3bp. Treasuries have been pummeled by the prospect that Trump’s vowed policies, like tax cuts and tariffs, could fuel price pressures and force the Federal Reserve to keep rates elevated. Traders are pricing in just over a 50% chance of another quarter-point cut in December, after yields on two- and five-year Treasuries surged to their highest levels since July.
In commodities oil prices advance, with WTI rising 0.7% to $68.60 a barrel. Spot gold climbs $9 to $2,608/oz.
Bitcoin fell 1% after a chart-busting rally took the digital asset to almost $90,000.
Looking at today’s event calendar, US economic data calendar includes October CPI (8:30am) and federal budget balance (2pm). The Fed speaker slate includes Kashkari (8:30am), Williams (9:30am), Logan (9:45am), Musalem (1pm) and Schmid (1:30pm)
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures little changed at 6,007.25
STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 502.63
MXAP down 1.0% to 183.07
MXAPJ down 0.8% to 579.96
Nikkei down 1.7% to 38,721.66
Topix down 1.2% to 2,708.42
Hang Seng Index down 0.1% to 19,823.45
Shanghai Composite up 0.5% to 3,439.28
Sensex down 1.4% to 77,555.88
Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 8,193.36
Kospi down 2.6% to 2,417.08
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.36%
Euro little changed at $1.0626
Brent Futures up 0.8% to $72.50/bbl
Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,610.45
US Dollar Index little changed at 105.94
Top Overnight News
China is relieved by Trump’s national security staffing decisions as Beijing feels they could have been worse. WSJ
China needs more stimulus to revive domestic copper demand according to a major importer. BBG
The PBOC signaled its unease with the yuan’s weakness by setting a stronger-than-expected reference rate. Separately, China’s securities regulator increased the frequency of its interactions with global banks, people familiar said. BBG
The FTC under Trump could sustain Biden’s aggressive approach to tech regulations/enforcement based on the frontrunners to replace Lina Khan. FT
Donald Trump picked John Ratcliffe for CIA Director and will nominate Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, while it was also reported that Trump told allies he wants Robert Lighthizer as his trade czar.
Donald Trump’s former trade chief, Robert Lighthizer, and those close to him are preparing to aggressively sell their plans for massive new tariffs on imports that will go far beyond anything seen in Trump’s first term. Politico
Donald Trump picked Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new Department of Government Efficiency — DOGE — tasked with slashing bureaucracy, regulation and spending. The structure may allow Musk to avoid resigning from his companies. BBG
Punchbowl News notes that the GOP is planning to pass a major tax bill in the first 100 days of the new Trump presidency. Sources add that conversations between Republicans from the House and Senate Budget Committees yesterday were largely a big-picture discussion about what Republicans are looking at for reconciliation.
SoftBank will be the first to build a supercomputer with chips using Nvidia’s new Blackwell design. BBG
Spirit Airlines is preparing to file for bankruptcy protection after failing to reach a merger deal w/ULCC (Frontier). WSJ
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative lead from the US amid higher yields and cautiousness ahead of US CPI data, while the region also digested a slew of earnings releases. ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the mining-related stocks and with the top-weighted financial industry also pressured in the aftermath of CBA’s earnings which posted a flat Y/Y cash profit of AUD 2.5bln for Q1. Nikkei 225 retreated following the hotter-than-expected PPI data, while losses were initially stemmed by recent currency weakness and with Sharp and Tokyo Electron among the best performers post-earnings, although selling eventually worsened. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid light catalysts and as participants await Chinese tech earnings, while US President-elect Trump’s first picks for his administration included China hawks such as Waltz, Rubio and Lighthizer, although he also named China-friendly Elon Musk to lead the department of government efficiency with Vivek Ramaswamy.
Top Asian News
China cuts taxes for home purchases in fiscal support effective December 1st; MOF says tax cuts targets boosting the property market
China is to release its homebuying tax cut plans soon and will likely cut taxes for home purchases by end-2024, according to China Securities Times.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in response to the TSMC (2330 TT) chip curbs that the US is playing the Taiwan card to raise tensions in the Taiwan Straits and these chip curbs ultimately undermine the interests of Taiwan’s companies, while it added that restrictions also cause Taiwan companies to miss further opportunities for industrial development.
Tencent (700 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 167.19bln (exp. 167.93bln). Net Income 53.23bln (exp. 45.33bln). EPS 5.6444 (prev. 3.752 Y/Y)
Japan’s government is considering restarting electricity and gas price subsidies from Jan-March
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) initially opened very modestly lower across the board, in a continuation of the subdued price action seen in Asia overnight. However, sentiment soon improved just after the cash open to display a more positive picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed, having initially opened with a slight negative bias. Energy takes the top spot, lifted by significant gains in Siemens Energy after it raised its mid-term targets; gains in oil prices in recent trade may also be propping up the sector. Basic Resources follows closely behind, attempting to pare back some of the prior day’s losses. Tech is found at the foot of the pile. US Equity Futures are very modestly lower across the board, with price action tentative ahead of US CPI.
Top European News
BoE’s Mann says headline CPI “is not telling us whether underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished”. UK services inflation is pretty sticky. Energy prices are more likely to go up than down. Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers. Will focus on how much UK financial conditions are affected by BoE actions vs moves in the US. Better for the BoE to lean against risk that inflation is higher than expected, than to wait and see. Ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone. Still sees a desire from workers and firms to catch up on lost wages and margin caused by past high inflation. Some evidence that hospitality firms are finding it harder to pass on cost increases.
ECB’s Villeroy says he expects more rate cuts. Regarding France, expects inflation to remain moderate and the unemployment rate to increase to ~8% before easing back down to 7%. US election result risks lifting inflation. Bitcoin remains a risky asset.
ECB’s Kazaks says ECB should not deliberately set out to undershoot or overshoot its 2% inflation target, via Econostream. ECB’s best bet was therefore to aim strictly for 2% at all times, so, it should continue to follow its current cautious approach. ECB should proceed with a ‘measured pace, step by step’, avoiding ‘sharp moves’ but retaining ‘full optionality and flexibility. Economic activity was ‘still within the confines of the baseline scenario’. Kazaks said the analysis underlying the Governing Council’s monetary policy decision next month should more heavily weight what it projected would happen next year rather than in 2027, for which an initial set of projections would be unveiled.
ECB’s Nagel says core inflation rate is still quite high; there is still noticeable price pressures, particularly in services. Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost Germany 1% in economic output
UK grocery sales growth slows as consumers wait for Christmas and Black Friday, according to NIQ; says UK has a polarised consumer with half the households feeling pressure on personal finances.
German Chemical Association VCI says in Q3, production rose 0.1% Y/Y or +3.3% without pharma; Q3 producer prices -0.3% amid weak demand and falling raw material costs
FX
DXY started the session off on the front foot once again as the ramifications of a Trump Presidency remain at the forefront of investor sentiment, but is now flat and holding around 105.98. Focus ahead will no doubt be on US CPI, and then a slew of Fed speakers thereafter.
EUR started the session on the backfoot vs. the USD and briefly made a fresh YTD low at 1.0594. The pair has since moved back onto a 1.06 handle. However, the ramifications of a Trump Presidency continue to act as a drag for the Eurozone outlook.
JPY’s run of losses since the start of the week has continued with USD/JPY crossing the 155 threshold for the first time since 30th July (155.21 was the high that day); this may spark some further jawboning from Japanese officials.
GBP steady vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers for the UK on the quiet side aside from commentary from MPC-hawk Mann. She kept her hawkish-tone and noted that inflation has “definitely not been vanquished”, adding that UK services inflation is pretty sticky.
AUD/USD initially extended on its recent run of losses with sentiment surrounding China acting as a drag on the pair. NZD is steadier than its Antipodean peers vs. the USD and is currently caged within yesterday’s 0.5909-72 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2305 (prev. 7.1927).
Fixed Income
USTs are incrementally firmer. Specifics so far have been light with USTs coming under modest pressure overnight, to a 109-9 trough, on a soft 30yr JGB tap and above-forecast Japanese corporate good prices. Docket ahead is headline by CPI, after which we hear from numerous Fed speakers. USTs at a 109-17+ peak, resistance some way off at yesterday’s 110-04+ best before 110-07+ from Monday.
Bunds are softer, printed a 131.62 base in the early European morning with drivers at the time light. Since, the benchmark has been gradually making its way off that trough but is struggling to make real ground above 132.00; current high 132.08. US CPI is the highlight, but for Germany specifically, Chancellor Scholz is set to speak at 12:00GMT, remarks which follow him seemingly accepting calls for an early confidence-vote with December 16th touted.
Gilts are once again the underperformer. Gapped lower as the benchmark caught up with overnight UST action and then extended further below yesterday’s 93.30 trough to a 93.19 base. BoE’s Mann kept her hawkish-tone and noted that inflation has “definitely not been vanquished”, adding that UK services inflation is pretty sticky. This sparked some very modest pressure in Gilts. UK auction was well received, but had little impact on price action.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt Auction; b/c 3.12x, average yield 4.499%, tail 1.0bps.
Modest gains across the crude complex this morning after a relatively flat settlement on Tuesday as the initially heightened Middle East rhetoric was later offset by the broad Buck bid. Brent Jan trades towards the upper end of 71.78-72.63/bbl.
Mild gains across precious metals as DXY pulls back from best levels (105.88-106.21 parameter) with newsflow light and with traders gearing up for US CPI. Spot gold resides in a current USD 2,597.72-2,613.28/oz range
Copper futures hold a modest downward bias after lacking direction in APAC trade in a continuation of price action seen from the disappointing NPC Standing Committee announcement on Friday.
Iran reportedly made plans to keep oil exports stable under a Trump presidency, according to local press Shana.
Citi revised its 0-3M copper price target to USD 8,500/t (prev. USD 9,500/t); revised Q4 2024 average to USD 9,000/t (prev. USD 9,500/t)
Oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field -21% since Oct 26th to 496,200 BPD, according to Reuters sources.
Russia’s seaborne oil product exports in October -7% on the month, according to data and Reuters calculations.
Geopolitics: Middle East
Lebanon is reportedly awaiting concrete ceasefire proposals, according to Reuters citing Parliamentary speaker Berri, after a senior US official said he saw a shot at a truce soon
Israel conducted raids on the Haret Hreik and Lilaki areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
US envoy to the UN told the Security Council that Israel has taken some important steps to address the undisputed humanitarian crisis in Gaza and that it is of urgent importance that Israel pause implementation of legislation targeting UNRWA, while the envoy added Israel must ensure its actions are fully implemented and improvements are sustained over time.Syrian media reported air strikes targeting the outskirts of the city of Albu Kamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border, while the US military later confirmed that it conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage facility in Syria.
Geopolitics: Other
Chinese military organised naval and air forces to patrol the territorial waters and airspace of Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea and surrounding areas on November 13th.
US sanctions agency OFAC conducts an inquiry into Russian clients UBS (UBSG SW) took over with Credit Suisse, according to Reuters sources.
S Event Calendar
07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications +0.5%, prior -10.8%
08:30: Oct. CPI MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
Oct. CPI YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.4%
Oct. CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Oct. CPI Ex Food and Energy YoY, est. 3.3%, prior 3.3%
Oct. Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY, prior 1.5%, revised 1.4%
Oct. Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY, prior 0.9%, revised 1.1%
14:00: Oct. Federal Budget Balance, est. -$225b, prior $64.3b
Central Bank Speakers
08:30: Fed’s Kashkari Appears on Bloomberg Television
09:30: Fed’s Williams Gives Welcome Remarks
09:45: Fed’s Logan Gives Opening Remarks at Energy Conference
13:00: Fed’s Musalem Speaks on Economy, Monetary Policy
13:30: Fed’s Schmid Gives Keynote Remarks at Energy Conference
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
The inspiration for the report is that we’re now within touching distance of completing the first quarter century (QC) of this millennium (assuming our definition), so we thought we’d review what’s happened since the end of 1999 and what we can learn from it across economic data, asset price returns, and crucial factors like demographics. Yesterday’s CoTD from the report showed how in early 2000 the CBO expected all US government debt to be paid back by 2013 at the latest with 2025 still having zero debt/GDP. We’ll start the new quarter century in 2025 with $28 trillion more debt than expected back then and nearer to 100% of GDP. It shows how quickly the narrative can change. See the full report for much, much more.
Talking of debt, Treasury yields surged yesterday as the market continues to try to come to terms with the implications of the US election result that was emerging exactly a week ago as I type. This is all ahead of today’s US CPI which will be a key factor in the Fed’s decision next month. That’s particularly important this time around, as there’s been speculation the Fed might skip this meeting and not cut at all, with futures only pricing in a 59% chance of another cut next month. However Minneapolis Fed’s Kashkari, one of the more hawkish FOMC voices, did suggest a still reasonably high bar for the Fed to pause next month, saying that “there’d have to be a surprise on the inflation front to change the outlook so dramatically”.
Nevertheless, the December 2025 Fed futures contract was up another +6.0bps to 3.88% yesterday. In turn, that led to a clear run-up in Treasury yields, and the 2yr yield (+8.7bps) reached its highest since July at 4.34%, whilst the 10yr yield was up +12.4bps to 4.44%. That repricing also led to a fresh move up for the dollar index (+0.46%), which closed at its highest level since June. But that meant it was a different story elsewhere, with the Euro down to a one-year low of $1.0607, and sterling fell to a 3-month low of $1.2733.
With regards to today’s US CPI, the backdrop is that last month’s core CPI print was the strongest in 6 months, at +0.31% so there may be another upside surprise from a pause in December. In terms of what to expect, our US economists think that core CPI will tick down a bit from last month to +0.26%, which would keep the year-on-year reading at 3.3%. For headline inflation, they expect that to be at +0.20%, with the year-on-year reading up a tenth to +2.5%. Click here for our economist’s full preview and how to register for their subsequent webinar.
Back to yesterday and while yields and the dollar resumed their march higher, several other “Trump trades” struggled. Tesla was down -6.10%, while Trump Media & Technology Group was itself down -8.80%. Small-caps struggled as the Russell 2000 (-1.77%) saw its weakest day in two months, while the KBW Bank index retreated by -0.52%. More broadly, the S&P 500 was down -0.29%, the first decline in six days, but the declines were fairly broad, and the equal-weighted version of the index was down by a larger -0.77%. Big tech helped limit the extent of the headline decline, as aside from Tesla’s reversal the Mag-7 saw average gains of nearly 1%, led by Nvidia (+2.10%).
Over in Europe, the main news came from Germany, where the political parties agreed to hold an early federal election on February 23. So Chancellor Scholz will table a confidence vote on December 16, and once that’s lost the President is able to hold early elections. That’s a change from the timetable that had previously been proposed, which was for a confidence vote on January 15, and then elections in March. As it stands, opinion polls have consistently placed the centre-right CDU/CSU group in the lead, with Politico’s polling average putting them on 32%. They’re followed by the far-right AfD on 17%, Chancellor Scholz’s centre-left SPD on 16%, the Greens on 10%, and the new far-left group BSW on 8%. Then behind them are the FDP on 4%, and the Left on 3%, both of whom are beneath the 5% hurdle required to enter the Bundestag.
Markets slumped across the continent, with the STOXX 600 (-1.98%) posting its worst daily performance since the market turmoil back in early August. The declines were very broad-based, and other indices posted even sharper losses, including the CAC 40 (-2.69%) and the DAX (-2.13%). External uncertainty weighed on sentiment with Stoxx luxury (-3.58%) and industrials (-2.68%) indices seeing sizeable declines, while materials stocks (-2.91%) also underperformed as the Bloomberg Industrial Metals index fell to its lowest since mid-September. Perhaps a weak session in China contributed. Moreover, there was little respite on the rates side, with yields on 10yr bunds (+3.5bps), OATs (+4.0bps) and BTPs (+4.6bps) all moving higher.
Meanwhile in the UK, gilts underperformed after data showed that wage growth was stronger than expected in September. For instance, average weekly earnings over the 3m to September were up +4.3% compared to the previous year (vs. +3.9% expected). That led investors to dial back the chance of rate cuts from the Bank of England, with just 51bps of cuts now priced in by the August 2025 meeting, down -8.6bps on the day. And in turn, yields on 10yr gilts were up +7.4bps to 4.50%, a larger rise compared to the rest of Europe.
Asian equity markets are continuing to decline overnight on the general uncertainty post the election.
The KOSPI (-2.22%) is the biggest underperformer, pulled lower by the index heavyweight Samsung Electronics (-3.40%) as it declines for the fourth consecutive session, reaching its lowest level in over four years. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-1.84%) is also trading noticeably lower as wholesale inflation reached its highest level since August of last year (more below) with the Hang Seng (-0.91%) and the S&P/ASX 200 (-0.75%) also trading in negative territory. The Shanghai Composite (-0.14%) is outperforming.
Moving back to Japan, the producer price index (PPI) rose +3.4% from the same month last year (v/s +2.9% expected) as a spike in rice costs pushed up overall wholesale inflation. That compares to an upwardly revised +3.1% increase in September. In FX, the Japanese yen (-0.15%) continues to remain on the backfoot for the third consecutive session, trading at 154.86 against the dollar, the lowest since July 29 amid growing market conviction that Japan’s political landscape could make it difficult for the BOJ to hike interest rates again. DB’s Francis Yared thinks the opposite and believes the US election result and domestic Japanese wages opens the door to higher front end Japanese rates than the market expects.
On the data front yesterday, the highlight in the US was the Fed’s quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOOS), which showed aggregate bank credit conditions staying at around neutral levels. The SLOOS showed further normalisation of credit standards for CRE lending, while banks’ willingness to make consumer loans turned positive for the first time in two years. But the positive credit cycle read through was offset by a renewed decline in demand for C&I lending and a tightening in mortgage standards.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, the German ZEW survey came in beneath expectations, with the current situation down to -91.4 in November (vs. -85.0 expected). That’s the lowest reading since May 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic. Moreover, the expectations component fell back to 7.4 (vs. 13.2 expected). Otherwise, the NFIB’s small business optimism index was out in the US, which rose to 93.7 in October (vs. 92.0 expected).
To the day ahead, and the main data release will be the US CPI report for October. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the Fed’s Kashkari, Williams, Logan, Musalem and Schmid, along with the BoE’s Mann.
2B) European report.
Dollar & USTs flat ahead of US CPI and a slew of Fed speakers – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 05:44 AM
European bourses are mostly on a modestly firmer footing; US futures are incrementally lower ahead of US CPI.
Dollar is flat, JPY marginally underperforms with USD/JPY briefly topping 155.00.
USTs are incrementally firmer and ultimately in stasis ahead of US CPI; Gilts continued to underperform.
Crude and precious metals gain but base metals remain subdued.
Looking ahead, US CPI, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem, Kashkari, Schmid & RBA’s Bullock. Earnings from Cisco.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European bourses, Stoxx 600 (+0.2%) initially opened very modestly lower across the board, in a continuation of the subdued price action seen in Asia overnight. However, sentiment soon improved just after the cash open to display a more positive picture in Europe.
European sectors are mixed, having initially opened with a slight negative bias. Energy takes the top spot, lifted by significant gains in Siemens Energy after it raised its mid-term targets; gains in oil prices in recent trade may also be propping up the sector. Basic Resources follows closely behind, attempting to pare back some of the prior day’s losses. Tech is found at the foot of the pile.
US Equity Futures are very modestly lower across the board, with price action tentative ahead of US CPI.
DXY started the session off on the front foot once again as the ramifications of a Trump Presidency remain at the forefront of investor sentiment, but is now flat and holding around 105.98. Focus ahead will no doubt be on US CPI, and then a slew of Fed speakers thereafter.
EUR started the session on the backfoot vs. the USD and briefly made a fresh YTD low at 1.0594. The pair has since moved back onto a 1.06 handle. However, the ramifications of a Trump Presidency continue to act as a drag for the Eurozone outlook.
JPY’s run of losses since the start of the week has continued with USD/JPY crossing the 155 threshold for the first time since 30th July (155.21 was the high that day); this may spark some further jawboning from Japanese officials.
GBP steady vs. the USD and EUR with fresh macro drivers for the UK on the quiet side aside from commentary from MPC-hawk Mann. She kept her hawkish-tone and noted that inflation has “definitely not been vanquished”, adding that UK services inflation is pretty sticky.
AUD/USD initially extended on its recent run of losses with sentiment surrounding China acting as a drag on the pair. NZD is steadier than its Antipodean peers vs. the USD and is currently caged within yesterday’s 0.5909-72 range.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2305 (prev. 7.1927).
USTs are incrementally firmer. Specifics so far have been light with USTs coming under modest pressure overnight, to a 109-9 trough, on a soft 30yr JGB tap and above-forecast Japanese corporate good prices. Docket ahead is headline by CPI, after which we hear from numerous Fed speakers. USTs at a 109-17+ peak, resistance some way off at yesterday’s 110-04+ best before 110-07+ from Monday.
Bunds are softer, printed a 131.62 base in the early European morning with drivers at the time light. Since, the benchmark has been gradually making its way off that trough but is struggling to make real ground above 132.00; current high 132.08. US CPI is the highlight, but for Germany specifically, Chancellor Scholz is set to speak at 12:00GMT, remarks which follow him seemingly accepting calls for an early confidence-vote with December 16th touted.
Gilts are once again the underperformer. Gapped lower as the benchmark caught up with overnight UST action and then extended further below yesterday’s 93.30 trough to a 93.19 base. BoE’s Mann kept her hawkish-tone and noted that inflation has “definitely not been vanquished”, adding that UK services inflation is pretty sticky. This sparked some very modest pressure in Gilts. UK auction was well received, but had little impact on price action.
UK sells GBP 4bln 4.375% 2028 Gilt Auction; b/c 3.12x, average yield 4.499%, tail 1.0bps.
Modest gains across the crude complex this morning after a relatively flat settlement on Tuesday as the initially heightened Middle East rhetoric was later offset by the broad Buck bid. Brent Jan trades towards the upper end of 71.78-72.63/bbl.
Mild gains across precious metals as DXY pulls back from best levels (105.88-106.21 parameter) with newsflow light and with traders gearing up for US CPI. Spot gold resides in a current USD 2,597.72-2,613.28/oz range
Copper futures hold a modest downward bias after lacking direction in APAC trade in a continuation of price action seen from the disappointing NPC Standing Committee announcement on Friday.
Iran reportedly made plans to keep oil exports stable under a Trump presidency, according to local press Shana.
Citi revised its 0-3M copper price target to USD 8,500/t (prev. USD 9,500/t); revised Q4 2024 average to USD 9,000/t (prev. USD 9,500/t)
Oil output at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field -21% since Oct 26th to 496,200 BPD, according to Reuters sources.
Russia’s seaborne oil product exports in October -7% on the month, according to data and Reuters calculations.
French ILO Unemployment Rate (Q3) 7.4% vs. Exp. 7.4% (Prev. 7.3%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
BoE’s Mann says headline CPI “is not telling us whether underlying inflation dynamics have been vanquished”. UK services inflation is pretty sticky. Energy prices are more likely to go up than down. Sees more volatility and upward bias to some inflation drivers. Will focus on how much UK financial conditions are affected by BoE actions vs moves in the US. Better for the BoE to lean against risk that inflation is higher than expected, than to wait and see. Ready to cut rates in bigger steps when inflation risks have gone. Still sees a desire from workers and firms to catch up on lost wages and margin caused by past high inflation. Some evidence that hospitality firms are finding it harder to pass on cost increases.
ECB’s Villeroy says he expects more rate cuts. Regarding France, expects inflation to remain moderate and the unemployment rate to increase to ~8% before easing back down to 7%. US election result risks lifting inflation. Bitcoin remains a risky asset.
ECB’s Kazaks says ECB should not deliberately set out to undershoot or overshoot its 2% inflation target, via Econostream. ECB’s best bet was therefore to aim strictly for 2% at all times, so, it should continue to follow its current cautious approach. ECB should proceed with a ‘measured pace, step by step’, avoiding ‘sharp moves’ but retaining ‘full optionality and flexibility. Economic activity was ‘still within the confines of the baseline scenario’. Kazaks said the analysis underlying the Governing Council’s monetary policy decision next month should more heavily weight what it projected would happen next year rather than in 2027, for which an initial set of projections would be unveiled.
ECB’s Nagel says core inflation rate is still quite high; there is still noticeable price pressures, particularly in services. Trump’s proposed tariffs could cost Germany 1% in economic output
UK grocery sales growth slows as consumers wait for Christmas and Black Friday, according to NIQ; says UK has a polarised consumer with half the households feeling pressure on personal finances.
German Chemical Association VCI says in Q3, production rose 0.1% Y/Y or +3.3% without pharma; Q3 producer prices -0.3% amid weak demand and falling raw material costs
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President-elect Trump picked John Ratcliffe for CIA Director and will nominate Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, while it was also reported that Trump told allies he wants Robert Lighthizer as his trade czar. Furthermore, Trump said Elon Musk, working in conjunction with Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the department of government efficiency and aim to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies.
Punchbowl News notes that the GOP is planning to pass a major tax bill in the first 100 days of the new Trump presidency. Sources add that conversations between Republicans from the House and Senate Budget Committees yesterday were largely a big-picture discussion about what Republicans are looking at for reconciliation.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Lebanon is reportedly awaiting concrete ceasefire proposals, according to Reuters citing Parliamentary speaker Berri, after a senior US official said he saw a shot at a truce soon
Israel conducted raids on the Haret Hreik and Lilaki areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
US envoy to the UN told the Security Council that Israel has taken some important steps to address the undisputed humanitarian crisis in Gaza and that it is of urgent importance that Israel pause implementation of legislation targeting UNRWA, while the envoy added Israel must ensure its actions are fully implemented and improvements are sustained over time.Syrian media reported air strikes targeting the outskirts of the city of Albu Kamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border, while the US military later confirmed that it conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage facility in Syria.
OTHER
Chinese military organised naval and air forces to patrol the territorial waters and airspace of Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea and surrounding areas on November 13th.
US sanctions agency OFAC conducts an inquiry into Russian clients UBS (UBSG SW) took over with Credit Suisse, according to Reuters sources.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin edges lower, and ultimately takes a breather after soaring to ATHs in the prior few sessions; currently sits around USD 87.5k.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative lead from the US amid higher yields and cautiousness ahead of US CPI data, while the region also digested a slew of earnings releases.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the mining-related stocks and with the top-weighted financial industry also pressured in the aftermath of CBA’s earnings which posted a flat Y/Y cash profit of AUD 2.5bln for Q1.
Nikkei 225 retreated following the hotter-than-expected PPI data, while losses were initially stemmed by recent currency weakness and with Sharp and Tokyo Electron among the best performers post-earnings, although selling eventually worsened
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid light catalysts and as participants await Chinese tech earnings, while US President-elect Trump’s first picks for his administration included China hawks such as Waltz, Rubio and Lighthizer, although he also named China-friendly Elon Musk to lead the department of government efficiency with Vivek Ramaswamy.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China cuts taxes for home purchases in fiscal support effective December 1st; MOF says tax cuts targets boosting the property market
China is to release its homebuying tax cut plans soon and will likely cut taxes for home purchases by end-2024, according to China Securities Times.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in response to the TSMC (2330 TT) chip curbs that the US is playing the Taiwan card to raise tensions in the Taiwan Straits and these chip curbs ultimately undermine the interests of Taiwan’s companies, while it added that restrictions also cause Taiwan companies to miss further opportunities for industrial development.
Tencent (700 HK) Q3 (CNY): Revenue 167.19bln (exp. 167.93bln). Net Income 53.23bln (exp. 45.33bln). EPS 5.6444 (prev. 3.752 Y/Y)
Japan’s government is considering restarting electricity and gas price subsidies from Jan-March
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corporate Goods Prices MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%); YY 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.8%, Rev. 3.1%)
Australian Wage Price Index QQ (Q3) 0.8% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.8%); YY 3.5% vs. Exp. 3.6% (Prev. 4.1%)
2C ASIAN REPORT\
APAC stocks mostly subdued following negative lead from US, CPI ahead – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 01:46 AM
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative lead from the US alongside higher yields.
European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 2.3% on Tuesday.
DXY remains above the 106 mark, USD/JPY has just crossed above the 155 level, EUR/USD sits just above 1.06.
Bunds are lower, crude is marginally firmer, BTC has pulled back from its record high.
Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI, EIA STEO, Speakers including Fed’s Logan, Williams, Musalem, Kashkari, Schmid & RBA’s Bullock, Supply from UK, Italy & Germany.
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were lower on Tuesday in a slight pullback from record levels and cautiousness ahead of US CPI data with the small-cap Russell 2000 lagging as it gave back some of its recent strength post-US election, while sectors closed largely in the red with underperformance in Materials, Healthcare and Real Estate although there was some resilience in Communications, Technology, and Consumer Staples which were the only industries to finish higher. Elsewhere, the Dollar Index extended on its rally to its highest since May and Treasuries continued to sell off as yields climbed.
SPX -0.29% at 5,984; NDX -0.17% at 21,071, DJI -0.86% at 43,911, RUT -1.77% at 2,392.
Fed’s Kashkari (2026 Voter) said he does think growth can continue into next year and the economy has been remarkably resilient, according to Yahoo Finance. Kashkari said if inflation surprises to the upside between now and December, that might give us a pause, while his judgement is the Fed is currently ‘moderately restrictive’ and noted in hindsight, the Fed only put one foot on the brake instead of two.
Fed’s SLOOS stated regarding loans to businesses over Q3 that survey respondents reported on balance, basically unchanged lending standards for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to large and middle-market firms and tighter standards for loans to small firms, while banks reported weaker demand for C&I loans to firms of all sizes.
US President-elect Trump picked John Ratcliffe for CIA Director and will nominate Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, while it was also reported that Trump told allies he wants Robert Lighthizer as his trade czar. Furthermore, Trump said Elon Musk, working in conjunction with Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the department of government efficiency and aim to dismantle government bureaucracy, slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure federal agencies.
Business groups urged US President Biden to take decisive steps to ensure government chips funding is made available to recipients in the next 30 days.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the negative lead from the US amid higher yields and cautiousness ahead of US CPI data, while the region also digested a slew of earnings releases.
ASX 200 was dragged lower by underperformance in the mining-related stocks and with the top-weighted financial industry also pressured in the aftermath of CBA’s earnings which posted a flat Y/Y cash profit of AUD 2.5bln for Q1.
Nikkei 225 retreated following the hotter-than-expected PPI data, while losses were initially stemmed by recent currency weakness and with Sharp and Tokyo Electron among the best performers post-earnings, although selling eventually worsened
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were mixed amid light catalysts and as participants await Chinese tech earnings, while US President-elect Trump’s first picks for his administration included China hawks such as Waltz, Rubio and Lighthizer, although he also named China-friendly Elon Musk to lead the department of government efficiency with Vivek Ramaswamy.
US equity futures (ES -0.2%) were lacklustre after the recent pullback from record levels and as US CPI data looms.
European equity futures are indicative of a lower cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.4% after the cash market closed lower by 2.3% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY took a breather after the continued strength yesterday which coincided with the upside in yields and eventually lifted the DXY back above 106.00 to print its highest level since May. There were several recent comments from Fed speakers although they had little impact on price action with Barkin suggesting a mixed view ahead on the labour market and inflation, while Kashkari said if inflation surprises to the upside between now and December, that might give them a pause.
EUR/USD marginally softened but is off the prior day’s lows with the currency helped by support at the 1.0600 level.
GBP/USD remained stuck near a multi-month low beneath the 1.2800 handle after underperforming due to recent data.
USD/JPY held on to the prior day’s gains with a firm footing at the 154.00 handle and has just crossed above the 155 mark after the recent dollar strength and upside in US yields.
Antipodeans were little changed with the upside contained by the mostly subdued risk appetite and after softer-than-expected Australian Wage Price Index for Q3, while a firmer-than-anticipated CNY reference rate setting provided some support for CNH but had little impact on AUD/USD.
PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1991 vs exp. 7.2305 (prev. 7.1927).
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures were contained near the prior day’s lows after having extended on the post-election sell-off as yields climbed and participants continued to anticipate incoming higher US tariffs, while the attention now turns to CPI data.
Bund futures traded subdued following the recent slide beneath the 132.00 level with prices not helped by upcoming supply.
10yr JGB futures tracked the recent declines in global peers with demand also contained after firmer-than-expected PPI data and mostly weaker results from the 30yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures were rangebound after the prior day’s choppy performance in which the Middle East rhetoric including the pushback by Israel’s Defence Minister against a ceasefire in Lebanon was offset by the broad dollar strength, while the latest inventory data is delayed by a day owing to the Veterans Day federal holiday at the start of the week.
BSEE stated 10.5% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico shut-in due to Rafael (prev. 25.7%) and 3.2% of nat gas shut-in (prev. 13.1%) in the final production notice from BSEE in response to Rafael.
Spot gold reclaimed the USD 2,600/oz status with a bid seen at the open of Shanghai commodities trade.
Copper futures lacked direction after recent selling pressure and amid the mostly risk-averse mood.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin continued to pull back following its recent surges with prices back beneath the USD 88,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
China is to release its homebuying tax cut plans soon and will likely cut taxes for home purchases by end-2024, according to China Securities Times.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said in response to the TSMC (2330 TT) chip curbs that the US is playing the Taiwan card to raise tensions in the Taiwan Straits and these chip curbs ultimately undermine the interests of Taiwan’s companies, while it added that restrictions also cause Taiwan companies to miss further opportunities for industrial development.
DATA RECAP
Japanese Corporate Goods Prices MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%)
Japanese Corporate Goods Prices YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.0% (Prev. 2.8%, Rev. 3.1%)
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GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Israel conducted raids on the Haret Hreik and Lilaki areas in the southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
Israeli military said it dismantled the majority of Hezbollah’s weapons and missile facilities in southern Beirut.
Israeli President Herzog said he had a productive meeting with US President Biden and hopes to see results on some commitments in the foreseeable future including in the next few days.
US President Biden’s advisor Hochstein said in a conversation with reporters at the White House that there is a chance to reach a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon soon, according to Axios.
US Secretary of State Blinken has decided there will be no change for now in military assistance to Israel following the deadline the US gave Israel regarding the humanitarian situation in Gaza which expires this Tuesday, according to Axios’ Ravid citing two US officials.
US envoy to the UN told the Security Council that Israel has taken some important steps to address the undisputed humanitarian crisis in Gaza and that it is of urgent importance that Israel pause implementation of legislation targeting UNRWA, while the envoy added Israel must ensure its actions are fully implemented and improvements are sustained over time.Syrian media reported air strikes targeting the outskirts of the city of Albu Kamal on the Syrian-Iraqi border, while the US military later confirmed that it conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage facility in Syria.
OTHER
Chinese military organised naval and air forces to patrol the territorial waters and airspace of Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea and surrounding areas on November 13th.
US sanctions agency OFAC conducts an inquiry into Russian clients UBS (UBSG SW) took over with Credit Suisse, according to Reuters sources.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
ECB’s Kazaks said US tariffs will not be good for Europe and might push up inflation, while rates are dependent on what’s happening in the economy and the base scenario is to lower rates step by step.
France and China have resumed dialogue on the Cognac issue, according to the Cognac association, while it added that China’s decision to change the deposit on Cognac to a less complex guarantee is a positive step.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
END
3C JAPAN
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
THE NETHERLANDS
“We Must Do Whatever It Takes!” – Netherlands Reinstates Temporary Border Controls To Curve Illegal Immigration
The Netherlands has announced it will reintroduce internal border checks starting Dec. 9 in fresh efforts to manage illegal immigration.
The measure, proposed by Asylum and Migration Minister Marjolein Faber of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom (PVV), was approved by the Council of Ministers and will be in effect for six months.
“This initiative aims to reduce irregular migration into the Netherlands,” the government stated in a press release.
“Transfer of persons who do not meet the conditions for entering or staying in the Netherlands is done on the basis of European regulations and existing agreements with member states, including Belgium and Germany,” it added.
“For four months, I have been hearing around me: ‘Not allowed, not possible, not going to do it.’ But I will not be discouraged. I am the minister who is taking concrete measures to really get a grip on migration. We must do whatever it takes,”Faber said in an address to the Dutch parliament last week.
The Royal Netherlands Marechaussee, responsible for these checks, will prioritize minimizing disruption to economic and commuter traffic, especially in border regions, and will focus checks at airports on specific flights deemed higher risk for illegal migration or cross-border crime.
EU law mandates the Netherlands to inform the European Commission, fellow EU member states, and the European Parliament of the temporary measure.
The Netherlands’ action mirrors similar decisions by several EU countries, including Germany, Austria, France, and Denmark, which have all implemented or extended temporary border controls in response to heightened migration flows and security concerns.
Germany began six-month checks on Sept. 16, requiring all individuals entering from neighboring countries to undergo screening. Austria, France, and Denmark have each introduced selective checks, with Denmark specifically citing threats from terrorism and organized crime originating from Germany as driving factors.
The Dutch government emphasized that the reintroduction of checks is an “exceptional and temporary measure,” which will be conducted within the capacity of the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee and in close coordination with neighboring states.
The controls may be gradually expanded based on operational needs and will conclude by mid-2025 unless renewed or extended, it added.
Two men killed in Hezbollah rocket attack on Nahariya, IDF pounds southern Lebanon
Israel hits 100 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon over last day, strikes terror group sites in Beirut, as IDF says it’s destroyed majority of Hezbollah arms sites in capital
Ziv Belfer (left), 52, and Shimon Najm, 54, residents of the northern coastal city of Nahariya, who were killed in a Hezbollah rocket attack on the city on November 12, 2024. (Courtesy)
Two people were killed when a rocket exploded in the building where they were working in the northern coastal city of Nahariya on Tuesday as the Hezbollah terror group fired dozens of rockets and drones at northern and central Israel.
The almost non-stop rocket fire from Lebanon came as fighting continued in southern Lebanon and Israel reported it has destroyed the majority of Hezbollah’s weapons facilities in Beirut.
The attack on Nahariya killed Ziv Belfer, 52, and Shimon Najm, 54, both residents of the city, the municipality said. The two were pronounced dead at the scene, next to the warehouse that suffered a direct hit.
“It surprised us, because there’s a shelter there 10 steps away, and Ziv always goes to the shelter. It hurts because if there had been time, he would have gone to the shelter. I’m shocked,” Belfer’s sister Avital told Hebrew media.
In Kibbutz Kabri, the Magen David Adom emergency service said another two men in their 30s were lightly hurt by shrapnel in another impact.
According to the Israel Defense Forces, 10 rockets were launched from Lebanon in that attack, some of which were intercepted while others struck inside towns in the Western Galilee or open areas.
Authorities operate at a site where a missile fired from Lebanon hit and caused damage in Nahariya, northern Israel, November 12, 2024. (Flash90)
Surveillance camera footage showed the deadly impact in Nahariya.
The attack came hours after a Hezbollah drone struck a kindergarten in the Haifa suburb of Nesher. No one was hurt in that incident because staff rushed the children to a bomb shelter seconds before the impact.
In another barrage Tuesday afternoon, two rockets fired toward the Haifa Bay hit open areas, according to the military.
The IDF also said it intercepted a drone launched from Lebanon over the Western Galilee, while another drone struck an open area in the northern community of Ben Ami, close to Nahariya, causing no injuries.
Separately, three rockets launched from Lebanon at central Israel were successfully intercepted by air defenses, the IDF said, with no reports of injuries.
Shortly thereafter, Hezbollah claimed it had targeted an “air base south of Tel Aviv… with a salvo of quality missiles.”
The scene of a deadly rocket impact in Nahariya after a barrage from Lebanon, November 12, 2024. (Magen David Adom)
‘We have taken away a lot’
Meanwhile, speaking to ground troops in southern Lebanon on Tuesday, IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said that the military is “working very hard” and striking the terror group across Lebanon and Syria.
“From [Hassan] Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s Jihad Council, the commanders of the various units and areas… and a great many operatives… we have taken away a lot of capabilities,” Halevi said.
He added that it is “very very important” that ground forces are capturing large amounts of Hezbollah weapons in southern Lebanon, and “at the same time, the IDF is working very hard, striking heavily in Beirut, Hezbollah targets.”
“We are striking deep [in Lebanon] and we are striking a lot in Syria and on the Syria-Lebanon border, so that weapons do not reach Hezbollah,” Halevi said.
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi speaks with officers in southern Lebanon, November 12, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
In the ongoing ground operation there, the IDF’s 36th Division has reached “new targets” belonging to the terror group, the military said on Tuesday.
The IDF said troops with the division located rocket launchers primed for an attack on Israel, and demolished sites belonging to the terror group.
Also in the past day, the military said the Air Force struck some 100 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, including dozens of operatives, rocket launchers, weapon depots and other infrastructure.
Lebanon’s health ministry said five people were killed in an Israeli strike on a village about 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the Israeli border, which state-run media said targeted a house.
“The Israeli enemy strike on Tefahta killed five people,” the ministry said in a statement, with the official National News Agency reporting that “enemy aircraft launched a strike a short while ago on the town of Tefahta, targeting an inhabited house.”
The ministry didn’t say if those killed were civilians or Hezbollah operatives. Israel says its strikes are directed against the latter.
People gather next to destroyed buildings hit by an Israeli airstrike in Saksakiyeh village, south Lebanon, Tuesday, Nov. 12, 2024. (AP Photo/Mohammed Zaatari)
Israeli fighter jets also carried out a series of airstrikes on Hezbollah sites in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Tuesday.
According to the military, the targets included command centers, weapon manufacturing plans and other military infrastructure.
The Hezbollah sites were located “in the heart of a civilian population,” the military said, accusing the terror group of using human shields.
Before the strikes, the IDF issued evacuation warnings to civilians in the area.
One airstrike on an apartment building east of the capital killed six people, while four remained buried under the rubble, paramedics at the scene said.
Amid the strikes on Beirut, the IDF announced that it had demolished the majority of Hezbollah’s weapons manufacturing and storage facilities in the Lebanese capital, after carrying out dozens of airstrikes on the city in recent months.
According to the military, over the past two decades, the Lebanese terror group constructed dozens of weapons manufacturing plants and depots under buildings in Beirut’s southern suburb, a Hezbollah stronghold known as Dahiyeh.
The facilities were used by Hezbollah to manufacture and store hundreds of missiles and rockets of different kinds.
Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a neighborhood in Beirut’s southern suburbs on November 12, 2024. (Photo by AFP)
In a statement, the IDF said that in recent months it focused on demolishing the sites in a series of airstrikes carried out by fighter jets. During the strikes, secondary blasts were seen, confirming the IDF’s intelligence that the buildings were used by Hezbollah and contained explosives.
One of the main Hezbollah weapons manufacturing plants that was struck recently had been revealed by Israel at the United Nations in 2020, along with other facilities.
A man flashes a portrait of slain Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in front of the rubble of a building at the site of an Israeli airstrike in Beirut’s southern suburbs, on November 12, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah. (AFP)
According to the IDF, that complex was built under five residential buildings in Beirut, which housed some 50 families. The site was also located close to a school.
The IDF said that Hezbollah would manufacture various components at the site, including parts for precision missiles.
Before each of the strikes, the IDF issued evacuation warnings to civilians in the corresponding area.
The military said Hezbollah’s use of civilian sites for weapon storage and manufacturing “directly endangers the residents of Beirut, as many explosives are hidden under the citizens, often without their knowledge.”
The IDF in its statement also noted the deadly 2020 Beirut port blast, which occurred after some 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate stored there exploded. The military said that the ammonium nitrate was being “used as a component in Hezbollah’s munitions production process.” More than 220 people were killed in the explosion.
Increased drone attacks from Iraq
Amid the fighting in Lebanon, the IDF has also seen a marked increase in drone attacks from other Iranian proxies,
Some 60 drones have been launched at Israel since the beginning of November, according to new IDF data.
The UAVs were launched at Israel from Lebanon and Iraq. The military said that 90% of the drones were intercepted by air defenses.
There has been a sharp rise in drone attacks on Israel by Iran-backed groups in recent months.
Since the beginning of the war, some 1,300 drones have been launched at Israel, from all fronts — Lebanon, Gaza, Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Iran.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/
Beirut Suffers Under Biggest Daytime Airstrikes As Israel Says Time Not Right For Ceasefire
Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024 – 05:20 PM
Israeli warplanes are again pounding the Lebanese capital of Beirut, unleashing one of the heaviest daytime attacks yet on Hezbollah strongholds in the southern suburbs.
Israel’s defense ministry has thus far ruled out a ceasefire, which has been backed by both the US and Russia, until its military goals are met. It also remains that Hezbollah has continued unrelenting missile fire into Israel’s north, and on Tuesday rockets targeted a base near Tel Aviv.
The efforts to strike Tel Aviv briefly resulted in a total halt in air traffic at Ben Gurion international airport. Sirens also sounded throughout central Israel towns and communities. The Shia group backed by Iran said it targeted an “air base south of Tel Aviv… with a salvo of quality missiles.”
Israeli media has detailed Tuesday that one of the drones sent by Hezbollah hit a kindergarten in the northern town of Nesher, which shattered windows and scattered debris in a playground area. No children or staff were hurt as they had all moved to a bomb shelter as a precaution.
But elsewhere there were casualties from the dozens of missiles launched from Lebanon, including two Israelis killed when missiles struck a residential building in Nahariya.
The casualties in Lebanon have remained much higher, with at least 44 people killed and 88 wounded in attacks across mainly the south of the country on Monday.
Smoke billowed over Beirut as around a dozen strikes hit the southern suburbs from mid-morning. After posting warnings to civilians on social media, the Israeli military said it had struck Hezbollah targets in the Dahiyeh area of southern Beirut, including command centers and weapons production sites.
At this point Israeli leaders have touted that the military has destroyed or degraded almost all of Hezbollah’s weapons production capabilities.
Most Lebanese civilians are believed to have fled the hard-hit southern suburbs of Beirut. Residential towers continue to be taken out by the Israelis, amid claims that Hezbollah keeps weapons storehouses under them.
According to more of the latest developments via Reuters:
An Israeli strike back across the border killed five people in the Lebanese village of Baalchmay southeast of Beirut, and five more were killed in a strike on the town of Tefahta in the south, Lebanon’s health ministry said. Another person was killed in a strike in Hermel in the northeast, it said.
Beirut residents have largely fled the southern suburbs since Israel began bombing it in September. Footage of one strike shared on social media showed two missiles slamming into a building of around 10 stories, demolishing it and sending up clouds of debris.
The last week saw a number of international reports which said ‘progress’ has been made in reaching a US-backed ceasefire; however, those reports seem to have been premature.
This is especially as Israel’s new defense minister Israel Katz explained the following:
“Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not guarantee Israel’s right to enforce and prevent terrorism on its own, and meet the goals of the war in Lebanon – disarming Hezbollah and its withdrawal beyond the Litani River and returning the residents of the north safely to their homes,” he said.
Hezbollah has in turn defended its right to defend Lebanese territory, and fears that ceding ground south of the Litani would give Israeli forces permanent control of Lebanese land. There are more rumors of a ceasefire being ‘close’ on Tuesday:
BIDEN ADVISER HOCHSTEIN SAYS HE THINKS ‘THERE IS A SHOT’ TO GET A CEASEFIRE DEAL IN LEBANON SOON -AXIOS
Neither side is in the mood for ceasefire, but civilians on either side continue to bear the brunt of the suffering, and whole swathes of northern Israel and south Lebanon remain evacuated.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/WEDNESDAY MORNING
IDF: ‘New Hezbollah targets’ reached in expanded south Lebanon ground operation
Rockets, drones target swaths of northern Israel as fighter jets strike buildings in Beirut after evacuation warnings; IDF says several Hezbollah field commanders killed recently
Troops operating in south Lebanon in an undated photo released for publication by the military on November 13, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)
The military said Wednesday that it has further expanded its ground operation in southern Lebanon, as it continued to carry out airstrikes in Beirut while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel.
The Israel Defense Forces said that its 91st Division was reaching “new targets” belonging to Hezbollah. It said commandos operating with the division raided several new areas, as other brigades continued “defensive and offensive activities in the area.”
A day earlier, the IDF said that the 36th Division has also expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon.
Meanwhile, Israeli fighter jets continued to strike Hezbollah targets in the southern suburbs of Beirut after issuing an evacuation warning for six buildings in the area. AFPTV footage showed a plume of black smoke rising over the area that was struck, about an hour after the army told residents of parts of the southern suburbs to leave. There were no immediate reports of casualties.
Separately, an Israeli airstrike on an apartment building in the town of Aramoun, just south of Beirut, killed at least six people and wounded 15 others, Lebanon’s health ministry said.
The state-run National News Agency reported that there were children missing after the strike and it wasn’t clear if they were under the rubble or had been taken to a hospital. There was no warning issued before the strike, and it was not immediately clear what the target was.
Smoke rises after an Israeli airstrike on Dahiyeh, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, Nov. 13, 2024. (AP/Hassan Ammar)
Swaths of northern Israel were targeted by drone and rocket attacks throughout Wednesday morning, with the IDF saying that at least three drones were intercepted without causing any injuries. Rockets also set off sirens throughout the Upper Galilee, including a barrage of around 20 rockets. Some impacted, including on a home in Ma’alot-Tarshiha, causing damage but no injuries.
The IDF said Wednesday that it struck dozens of rocket launchers in Lebanon, including ones used in a deadly attack on Nahariya and long-range fire on central Israel on Tuesday.
Overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck Hezbollah weapon depots and command centers in Beirut’s southern suburbs, the IDF added. The Hezbollah sites were located “in the heart of a civilian population,” the military said, accusing the terror group of using human shields.
The IDF also revealed on Wednesday that several Hezbollah field commanders were killed in recent airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
According to the IDF, in early October, a strike carried out by fighter jets killed Muhammad Musa Salah, identified as the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in the Khiam region of southern Lebanon. (Another Hezbollah commander responsible specifically for the town of Khiam was killed earlier this month).
Salah was responsible for over 2,500 rocket launches at the Golan Heights, Upper Galilee and Galilee Panhandle during the war, as well as attacks on IDF troops in south Lebanon, the military said.
A man checks the destruction at the site of an Israeli airstrike in southern Beirut on November 13, 2024. (Ibrahim AMRO / AFP)
Another strike on Sunday killed Ayman Muhammad Nabulsi, whom the IDF identified as the commander of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in the Hajjar regional unit, which is responsible for attacks on northern Israel’s Ramim Ridge region. (Another commander of the anti-tank unit was killed late last month in a separate strike).
Separate strikes killed Hajj Ali Yussef Salah, the commander of Hezbollah’s forces in the village of Kfar Tebnit, and another unnamed commander responsible for the Ghajar area, the military added.
Hezbollah’s attacks on northern Israel since October 2023 have resulted in the deaths of 43 civilians. In addition, 62 IDF soldiers and reservists have been killed, including 36 slain during the ground operation that Israel began in September.
More than 3,300 people have been killed in Lebanon since the clashes began last year, according to the Lebanon Health Ministry, the majority of them since late September, a figure which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians but is likely to be incomplete, with Hezbollah ceasing to update its death toll with the escalation of violence. The IDF estimates that some 3,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the conflict over the past year.end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah Claims First Ever Attack On Israeli War Ministry HQ In Tel Aviv
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 12:55 PM
“In Lebanon, there will be no ceasefire and no pause. We will continue to strike Hezbollah with full force until our war objectives are achieved.” Those are the words of Israel’s new Defense Minister Israel Katz, issued Tuesday. The Biden administration has still been touting that it is working hard on a ceasefire.
“Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not secure its right to independently enforce and prevent terrorism, achieve its war objectives in Lebanon, disarm Hezbollah, push them back beyond the Litani River, and allow northern residents to safely return to their homes,” he added. The statement was given the same day that Lebanon’s government announced that over 100 Israeli airstrikes were recorded on the country in the prior 24 hours.
Tuesday night, Lebanese authorities said that 17 people were killed and 21 injured in Israeli airstrikes on the central and southern towns of Baalchmay, Joun, Rumin, and Al-Maali.
More were killed in what were widely described as some of the heaviest daytime strikes on Beirut of the war, per the Associated Press:
Another Israeli strike on an apartment building east of Beirut killed at least six people. Wael Murtada said the destroyed home belonged to his uncle and that those inside had fled from the Dahiyeh last month. He said three children were among the dead and other people were missing.
An Israeli airstrike on a residential building in central Lebanon killed 15 people, including eight women and four children, and wounded at least 12 others, Lebanon’s Health Ministry said. The strike came without warning, and state media said the building was sheltering displaced families.
On the Israeli side, rockets from Lebanon have continued into northern towns at unrelenting pace. Reuters has said that about 100 Israeli civilians and soldiers have been killed since the start of the conflict:
Since hostilities erupted a year ago, Israeli attacks have killed at least 3,287 people in Lebanon, the majority in the last seven weeks, according to the Lebanese health ministry. Its figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
Hezbollah attacks have killed about 100 civilians and soldiers in northern Israel, the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and southern Lebanon over the last year, according to Israel. Hezbollah late on Tuesday said its forces had killed more than 100 Israeli soldiers since Oct. 1.
In another important development, Hezbollah on Wednesdayclaimed its first ever attack on Israel’s Kirya military base in Tel Aviv, which is home to the Israeli war ministry headquarters.
“Hezbollah said the base was the headquarters of the Israeli war ministry and general staff, as well as its war management room and the air force’s war control and supervision authority,” Al Jazeera reports. “The group claimed the attack was carried out with a squadron of attack drones and the targets were hit accurately.”
A translated Hezbollah statement says, “We conducted for the first time, an air attack with a squadron of qualitative suicide drones, on the Kirya base (the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of War and General Staff, the War Management Room, and the Air Force’s Military Control and Oversight Authority) in the city of Tel Aviv, and hit its targets accurately.”
If true this would mark a significant escalation. Not only would it mean that Israel’s most sensitive command infrastructure is exposed, but it would mark a significant failure of Israel’s advanced anti-air defense systems.
ISRAEL /WEST BANK JUDEA AND SUMARIA//OPINION
Annexation vs. security: Israel’s strategic choice in a tense moment – editorial
Israel faces a choice: Pursue diplomatically fradulent West Bank annexation or focus on Iran and regional security threats.
THE FLAGS (from right) of Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon are on display in Tehran. The Lebanese people should not allow Iran to build a Shi’ite crescent from Tehran to the Mediterranean Sea; they should stop suffering for the sake of Hezbollah, the writer urges.(photo credit: WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s recent call for West Bank annexation has put Israel at a decisive crossroads, one that invites scrutiny for the timing of his statements.
Smotrich envisions a bold step toward Israeli sovereignty over Judea and Samaria, eyeing the incoming Trump administration as a potential ally. But amid rising regional threats – from Iran’s relentless drive for influence to the ongoing conflicts with Hezbollah and Hamas – Israel faces far more urgent priorities that demand focus.
Smotrich said on Monday that he hoped Israel would extend sovereignty into the West Bank in 2025 and that he would push the government to engage the incoming administration to gain Washington’s support. Israel’s new foreign minister, Gideon Sa’ar, separately said that while no decision was made, the issue could come up in talks with the future US administration in Washington.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long used annexation as a political lever, and Smotrich’s remarks may very well serve as a trial balloon to gauge Washington’s stance under President-elect Donald Trump. But Israel’s national security interests would be far better served by focusing on de-escalating regional conflicts and working closely with the US on countering Iran.
The man reportedly tapped by Trump to be his secretary of state, Senator Marco Rubio, is known for his assertive stance on Iran and aligns with Israel’s position on containing Iranian influence. With Rubio as a diplomatic ally, Israel could rally significant support from the US to counteract Iranian ambitions rather than risking a new front by pursuing annexation.
Jewish settlers seen while Palestinian farmers pick olives during the annual harvest season, in the village of Burqa, east of Ramallah, West Bank, October 20, 2024 (credit: FLASH90)
West Bank annexation fraught with risks
Israel’s push for sovereignty in Judea and Samaria is not a new idea; Smotrich’s faction has long advocated for annexation, claiming historical and security justifications. However, extending sovereignty over the West Bank – a region Palestinians envision as part of a future state – is fraught with risks, especially in the context of international law and global perception.
Most world powers view the West Bank settlements as illegal, and a unilateral move to apply sovereignty could lead to severe diplomatic isolation for Israel.
It could also threaten to isolate Israel from its Arab allies – including signatories of the previous Trump administration’s Abraham Accords – and Saudi Arabia, whose consideration of warmer ties with Israel appears to be doubtful after recent contact between the Saudis and Iranians and comments by Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza.
Beyond the diplomatic consequences, annexation could lead to increased violence and unrest in the West Bank, triggering a potentially incomprehensible Third Intifada that Israel is ill-prepared to handle while already facing threats on multiple fronts.
The current wars with Hamas in Gaza and the persistent shadow of Hezbollah in Lebanon are complex enough without adding a new battleground. Until those wars are won, there should never be any thought of further adding fuel to the proverbial fire.
Israel’s immediate focus should be on securing itself against the existential threat posed against it by Iran. An annexation move could further embolden Iran to destabilize the region by arming its proxies, potentially drawing more factions into open conflict with Israel. This is a risk Israel cannot afford, especially when there is an opportunity to strengthen the anti-Iran alliance with the US under Trump.
Rubio, a staunch advocate for a robust US foreign policy against Iran, has the potential to bring the support Israel needs to counteract Tehran. With his experience in foreign policy and his views on confronting adversaries like Iran, Rubio’s appointment could be a pivotal opportunity to deepen US-Israel security cooperation.
Rather than antagonizing international support with a divisive annexation move, Israel would do well to channel this support toward a consolidated anti-Iranian front.
Netanyahu’s government must consider whether the pursuit of sovereignty in the West Bank aligns with Israel’s core national interests or serves more as a tool to appease certain factions within his coalition. With Iran’s influence seeping into Israel’s borders through its proxies, every resource, every diplomatic relationship, and every strategic decision must be oriented toward neutralizing these threats.
By holding off on annexation, Israel could avoid stirring up unnecessary tensions, focusing instead on securing strong partnerships with the US and regional allies. This is a time to consolidate allies, not to alienate them by reigniting controversies that could spiral into new conflicts.
END
ISRAEL HEBZOLLAH
IDF issues evacuation order ahead of strike on Hezbollah site in Beirut
The IDF has issued a fresh evacuation order for Lebanese civilians in the vicinity of a building in Beirut’s southern suburbs, ahead of an airstrike against Hezbollah assets.
The IDF spokesperson in Arabic, Avichay Adraee, issued an urgent warning for the immediate evacuation of areas in Dahiyeh in Beirut on Wednesday.
END
ISRAEL/IRAN
Netanyahu hints he would hit Iranian oil fields if Tehran attacks
Netanyahu urged Iranians to imagine their free lives without ‘the tyrants of Tehran’ in an unusual English message.
Illustrative) Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the backdrop of an Iranian oil field.(photo credit: Canva, MARC ISRAEL SELLEM, RAHEB HOMAVANDI/REUTERS)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hinted that the IDF would hit Iranian oil fields should Tehran make good on its threat to launch another ballistic missile attack on Israel.
“Another attack on Israel would simply cripple Iran’s economy,” Netanyahu said in an unusual English-language message he directed at the Iranian people.
His words, however, were also a sharply worded warning to the Islamic Republic, which is weighing a counterattack against Israel.
The Biden administration had warned Israel prior to its October attack on Iran not to escalate the situation by hitting Iranian oil fields or its nuclear faculties.
It is believed that President-elect Donald Trump would not oppose such a step. Netanyahu has already spoken three times with Trump since the incoming Republican president was elected last Tuesday.
“We see eye-to-eye on Iran,” Netanyahu said earlier this week in describing the conversations.
On Tuesday, he said, an Iranian attack on Israel “would rob you of many more billions of dollars.” The kind of economic devastation he described would be akin to what could happen if Israel did target the Iranian oil fields.
Netanyahu issued his statement just as President Isaac Herzog was set to meet with US President Joe Biden at the White House, his third such visit since 2022. Biden has hosted Netanyahu only once.
Herzog’s visit comes amid a transition of power in both Washington and Jerusalem, with Trump set to re-enter the White House in January and Israel Katz, replacing Yoav Gallant as defense minster. Gideon Sa’ar has stepped into Katz’s former role as foreign minister.
In an appeal to the Iranian people to work together with Israel for a better regional future, Netanyahu said, “I know that you don’t want this war. I don’t want this war either. The people of Israel don’t want this war. There is one force putting your family in grave danger: the tyrants of Tehran. That’s it.”
The Islamic Republic’s last attack on Israel, he said, cost the country “$2.3 billion,” he said, adding “I’m not guessing.”
Herzog highlighted the danger of Iran in his meeting with Biden, as he stressed the importance of a deal to ensure the return of the remaining 101 hostages in Gaza.
He linked that deal with Israel’s war with Iran.
“It all starts in Tehran. It all starts in the empire of evil, where Tehran with its proxies, they’re doing whatever they can to erase stability and security and peace, calling for the annihilation of the State of Israel and seeking nuclear weapons.”
He spoke as Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was in Washington for talks on a potential deal between the IDF and Hezbollah along Israel’s northern front.
Israel and the United States have been hopeful that a deal could be in the offing with Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy group, but despite an intense flurry of diplomatic activity, no deal has been reached.
Dermer and Blinken discussed such efforts when the two men met on Monday. After his White House meeting on Tuesday, Herzog hinted that there could be progress soon in speaking with reporters.
Defense Minister Katz, however, wrote on X that “there will be no ceasefire in Lebanon and no respite. We will continue to hit Hezbollah with full force until the goals of the war are achieved.
“Israel will not agree to any arrangement that does not guarantee Israel’s right to enforce and prevent terrorism on its own, and meeting the goals of the war in Lebanon, disarming Hezbollah and withdrawing them beyond the Litani River and returning the residents of the north safely to their homes,” Katz said.
END
ISRAEL/ IRAN/opinion..
How Iran’s attacks on Israel backfired, escalating regional conflict – opinion
Israel’s counterattacks on Iran underscore high stakes in Middle East.
A BILLBOARD in Tehran, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei affirms that the purpose of the Islamic Revolution is to eradicate Western-style democracy and impose Shi’a Islam on the whole world, the writer warns.(photo credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA/REUTERS)
Despite the many charges of aggression, mass murder, and worse that the Iranian regime chooses to level against Israel, there is no disguising the fact that it is Iran that seeks to destroy Israel, not the other way around.
On April 13, 2024, Iran – which essentially means the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – committed a major strategic blunder. Israel’s audacious attack on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1, 2024, took out seven Iranian military advisers, including Mohammad Reza Zahedi, a senior commander in the elite Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IGRC).
Such an operation would normally have provoked Iranian ire and an armed response on northern Israel from Hezbollah. Not this time. Instead, the incident was the trigger for a fundamental shift in Iranian policy that has led to negative consequences for Iran, which are still to be fully worked through. They may, in the final analysis, prove existential.
For 45 years – namely, since the Islamic Republic of Iran’s founding in 1979 – the Iranian regime had pursued its self-imposed mission of encompassing the destruction of Israel and its people through funding, arming, and supporting organizations, groups, and militias prepared to attack the Jewish state.
At some point in the period leading up to April 13, Khamenei decided that the time had arrived to change tactics. It must have been intense analysis and calculation by his advisers that led him to break the principle that had guided Iran’s foreign strategy for so long and finally launch Iran’s first direct onslaught on Israel.
IAF forces preparing for Israel’s retaliation attack against Iran, 25-Oct-2024 (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON UNIT)
‘Israel has never been weaker’
What were the possible factors? “Israel has never been weaker. It is bogged down in its war in Gaza. It hasn’t succeeded in eliminating Hamas or recovering its remaining hostages. It is being condemned on all sides for vast numbers of civilian deaths. Hezbollah is attacking it daily on its northern border. Houthi missiles are getting through its defenses. It is the subject of an investigation by the International Court of Justice on a charge of genocide.
“Imagine the effect of a direct Iranian attack. Think of bombs falling on Israeli cities. Think of Israelis in their hundreds slaughtered and injured. Israel will be humbled. The Abraham Accords will disintegrate, and any hope of their extension will be snuffed out.”
Khamenei’s military advisers must have convinced him that a massive fleet of kamikaze UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicles) would overwhelm Israel’s defenses, and at least some 50% of the missiles would get through. The aerial assault involved hundreds of drones, and cruise and ballistic missiles.
INSTEAD, KHAMENEI’S anticipated military and propaganda triumph turned into a humiliation. What Iran’s military strategists failed to take into account was the united support of Israel’s allies, and Iran’s unpopularity in the Arab world (Iranians may be Muslim, but they are not Arabs).
They surely did not count on Jordan and Saudi Arabia helping to block Iran’s UAVs from reaching Israel, nor that the UK and France would join the US in backing Israel’s Iron Dome in shooting down the Iranian missiles. Their subsequent failure was to underestimate both the chutzpah and effectiveness of Israel’s security and armed forces. Following the aerial assault of April 13, the Iranians were taken by surprise time and again.
Within a week, Israel had responded with airstrikes on Iranian military sites in Syria and Iran. Against a background of continuing tit-for-tat skirmishes, Israel pursued its hunt for the Hamas leaders responsible for the barbaric October 7, 2023 attack on Israel, and the Hezbollah leaders who supported them.
The targeted elimination of Mohammed Deif, head of Hamas’s military wing, on July 13 was followed by the even more telling retribution visited on Ismail Haniyeh, head of Hamas’s political wing. In an especial humiliation for the regime, he was killed in the heart of Iran’s capital, Tehran, by an explosion in his guesthouse, on July 31.
Then came September 17-18, when hand-held communication devices, such as pagers and walkie-talkies, manufactured specifically for Hezbollah and distributed widely to its operatives, were detonated remotely. The result was at least 42 fatalities and over 3,000 injuries, the vast majority of them Hezbollah operatives. Though Israel made no claim, the world assumed it was responsible.
ALBERT EINSTEIN is reputed to have said: “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” Whatever Khamenei’s thinking – perhaps he believed his first aerial assault on Israel had been underpowered – he opted for a second, bigger, and more focused attempt. He decided to use some 200 advanced Fattah-1 and Kheibar Shekan missiles, and target military and intelligence locations.
However, this second Iranian attack, on October 1, was only marginally more damaging than the first. Once again, most missiles were intercepted by Israeli and US defense systems, including support from US naval vessels stationed nearby.
How and when Israel would retaliate became the subject of intense media speculation.
The theorizing was temporarily suspended when Iran’s prize collaborator, the head of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar, was shot dead by the IDF on October 16. While welcoming the news as “a good day for Israel, for the United States, and for the world,” US President Joe Biden made it clear that he did not want Israel to target Iran’s nuclear and oil installations for fear of triggering an all-out war.Israel’s response on October 25 respected Biden’s wish and consisted of heavy air strikes on Iranian military targets in Syria and Hezbollah’s military infrastructure.
So Israel and Iran are undoubtedly in conflict, if not formally at war. Anyone can see why no truce can be meaningful.
The objective of the Iranian Islamic regime, from its founding in 1979, has been to acquire as much power and influence as possible in order to achieve the key objectives laid down by the regime’s original supreme leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini.
Khameini affirmed repeatedly that the very purpose of his revolution was to destroy Western-style democracy and its way of life and to impose Shi’ite Islam on the whole world. He identified the United States and Israel as his prime targets but included what was then the USSR.
“We wish to cause the corrupt roots of Zionism, capitalism, and communism to wither throughout the world,” Khomeini said. “We wish, as does God almighty, to destroy the systems which are based on these three foundations, and to promote the Islamic order of the prophet.”
By this, he meant his strict Shi’ite interpretation of Islam, for elsewhere he had declared that the holy cities of Mecca and Medina, situated in the heart of Sunni Saudi Arabia, were in the hands of “a band of heretics.”These objectives have driven the regime ever since, and continue to be its raison d’etre.
“We shall export our revolution to the whole world,” declared Khomeini. “Until the cry ‘There is no god but Allah’ resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle.”
In short, Iran’s leaders want to destroy the world as we know it. They want to achieve political dominance in the Middle East, overthrow Western-style democracy of which America is the prime exponent, wipe out the State of Israel, and impose Shi’ite Islam across the globe.
Whether the West wishes to acknowledge it or not, in combating Iran, Israel is fighting for the free world as a whole.
The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: http://www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com
The US military says it has conducted strikes against an Iranian-backed militia group’s weapons storage facility in Syria.
“These strikes were in response to a rocket attack on US personnel at Patrol Base Shaddadi. There was no damage to US facilities and no injuries to US or partner forces during the attack,” the US military says in a statement.
US warships shot down drones and missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthis while they were transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait, the Pentagon says.
Earlier today, the Houthis said they conducted two military operations against US naval vessels in the Red and Arabian seas which the group’s military spokesperson said lasted for eight hours.
Pentagon spokesperson Air Force Major General Patrick Ryder says that two US warships were attacked yesterday by at least eight drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles. The warships brought down the projectiles and there was no damage to the vessels.
Ryder says he is not aware of any attacks against the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln.
END
/RUSSIA/USA//IRAN
Iranian, Russian Card Payment Systems ‘Officially Linked’: Tehran
Iranian and Russian card payment systems were formally linked this week, coming as the two nations have been working together to circumvent economic sanctions imposed by Washington and the west.
The announcement was made on Monday during a ceremony attended by the Governor of Iran’s Central Bank Mohammad-Reza Farzin. During the ceremony, “a previous agreement on the connection of Iran’s Shetab and Russia’s Mir card payment systems for electronic fund transfers took effect,” Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported.
“The two domestic payment systems have been interconnected following the finalization of plans in the wake of a meeting with Russian Central Bank chief Elvira Nabiullina on the sidelines of the Financial Congress of the Bank of Russia in St. Petersburg in July,” Farzin said.
Travelers making visits between the two nations will be able to use their local debit cards for purchases.
In the first phase, Iranian nationals visiting Russia will use Shetab cards to withdraw rubles under the Kahroba smart debit card system. Russian travelers will then be able to use their Mir cards in the Islamic Republic.
Following this, Iranian citizens will be allowed to use Shetab cards at Point of Sale (POS) terminals across Russia.
Over the past two years, Moscow and Tehran have been pursuing efforts to circumvent western sanctions. Discussions on linking card payment systems have been ongoing since 2022.
In January this year, Iran was among several countries that joined the BRICS group of emerging economies, which is quickly expanding as an alternative to the western economic system.
Defense cooperation between the two states has also surged. The linking of the payment systems comes a week after Donald Trump was announced as the winner of the 2024 US presidential election. During his first term as president years ago, Trump initiated a “maximum pressure” policy of harsh economic sanctions against Iran.
Trump plans to “drastically increase sanctions on Iran and throttle its oil sales as part of an aggressive strategy,” Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on 8 November.
“It’s going to be maximum pressure 2.0,” said Robert McNally, a former US energy official.
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA/Monday
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR BRINGING THIS TO OUR ATTENTION:
After this how can anyone believe that government give a hoot about citizens ?
In Germany and English.
How many people have needless issues from these shots let alone economies that have forever been changed.
GLOBAL ISSUES
very important commentary from European expert Tom Luongo
(Tom Luongo)
“That’s Bait…” Chumming The Media Waters Doesn’t Work Like It Used To
There’s a great moment in Mad Max: Fury Road where they roll up to a naked woman chained to a tower and Max utters one of his, like, fourteen lines in the movie, “That’s bait.”
This is a metaphor for literally the entire media landscape in the age of social media.
Since Trump’s victory last Tuesday the Usual Suspects have chummed the waters with every possible bad idea to dishearten and undermine that victory. It’s all bait.
We weren’t 24 hours removed from Kamala Harris’ concession speech, a carbon copy of the one Hillary Clinton gave in 2016, where she said, “Fight” 20 times, before the first big piece of red meat was thrown down in front of libertarians to virtue signal over… Ending the Fed.
FOMC Chair Jerome Powell was forced to field a question during the post-meeting presser about stepping down if asked to by President-Elect Trump.
Powell “closed the fucking door” on that with one word, “No.”
At which point everyone was shocked, shocked I say!, to find out that the Fed Chair cannot be removed because the President didn’t like him. The same goes for Supreme Court justices, for example. This is politics folks, not philosophy. I’m not endorsing this situation but I am pointing out that those who have been parroting “End the Fed” since Ron Paul ran in 2008 should have known this.
So, given this background, one has to conclude it’s the dirtiest of dirty politics designed to create divisions within the MAGA crowd at a time when we should be coming together on the right issues, staffing the new administration, discussing which departments to cut, how to finance the debt.
In other words, we should be setting the tempo, rather than responding to it by those most vulnerable to a US government and Federal Reserve in lock-step to defend US sovereignty.
For more than a year I told you there would be two big targets for the Democrats in this election cycle, Jerome Powell and Elon Musk.
Powell is Public Enemy #1 over his aggressively tight monetary policy which all Austrians should be rejoicing over rather than concocting ever more lurid arguments about ‘stealth QE.’ For systemic thinkers, having a one-level flow chart on something as important and germane as monetary policy is, frankly, a pretty lazy and pathetic look.
Musk has now challenged Powell for the top spot for exclusion from Davos’ Happy Holidays Card List because of how Twitter and Starlink have thrown sand in the gears of their narrative generation engine, as I wrote about last week.
Going back to Powell, since the March 2023 banking crisis, which he fomented for political reasons and raised interest rates in the middle of, just to make sure everyone who mattered got the fucking memo, I eventually stopped being sick of Elizabeth Warren’s HR nanny routine from atop the Senate Banking Committee and simply started laughing at her.
She issued stern letters demanding the Fed lower interest rates at seemingly every FOMC meeting, trying to gin up controversy over the Fed. And it wasn’t to give anyone relief, or for the children, it was to help Democrats win the election and loosen the death grip Powell’s ‘higher for longer’ policy had on European capital markets.
But thanks to this silly question by a junior staffer at Politico, now the ‘Woke Left’ and the ‘Woke Right’ are having their fee-fees stroked by the remnants of the old banking cartels they both believe they are fighting here.
If it wasn’t so gods-damned important I’d be chuckling in Collapsitarian.
A Buffett at the Waffle House
Next up was the bait thrown at trad conservatives over people like Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley. The biggest tell that Trump was likely to win in a landslide was the intelligence blob floating the rumor weeks ago that Trump still liked Pompeo and that Big Mike was sniffing around as either Secretary of State or Defense.
That’s chum, folks. And Trump put the hammer down on it after a couple of days letting it percolate. He should have quashed it sooner. But, who am I to give the Master of the Overton Window advice on such matters?
Haley was also a non-starter. He hates her. Her career now starts and ends every day with, “More Coffee?” and “Scattered, Smothered, and Chunked? Got it, hunny.”
In fact, you know Trump hates Marco Rubio as much as he does Haley because I believe the rumor about him becoming Secretary of State.
How else are you going to get RINO “Little Marco” and his really big Manila Envelope Quotient (MEQ) out of the Senate and replaced by someone who will actually work with Trump, rather than against him on the big legislation that needs to get passed in 2025?
Promote him, keep him on a short leash about reforming Foggy Bottom, and let him grandstand on CHY-Na. And if he doesn’t do what’s asked of him? “You’re Fired!”
And if I’m wrong and Rubio is just more Neocon bait, then Masal Tov! Oi vey.
That rumor about Mike Rogers to head the CIA and everything else you’ve seen… all bait. All lame attempts to flood the zone with bad information and drive wedges between Trump’s biggest supporters and him.
If you can’t pick up on crude attempts at British divide and rule at this stage of the game, maybe you just suck at the game.
It took the leaking of a secret ballot organized by outgoing Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to finally wake people up to the depths to which the bureaucratic immune system is fighting back against the chemotherapy Trump’s win represents.
If Marjorie Taylor Greene helps stop John Cornyn from becoming our leader in the Senate, I’ll take back most of the mean things I’ve said about her.
Most of them.
Schadenfreude in Berlin
Trump’s win caused a political earthquake in Berlin as the German government collapsed after Chancellor Olaf Scholz tried to meet a cash call to his creditors on Ukraine. FDP Finance Minister Christian Lindner refused to approve another 6 billion euros to Ukraine. But Germany is out of money this fiscal year and it needed to go to the Bundestag. So Scholz fired him and Lindner pulled the FDP out of the coalition.
Now the situation in Germany is in the kind of flux we usually only see in places being color revolution’d.
They are so desperate to hold onto power we’re now being regaled with the latest fantasy of the “Saxony Separatists,” all 3 of them, as the latest reason to ban Alternative for Germany (AfD) and keep them from participating in the upcoming snap elections.
Again, that’s bait for the German Boomers. Even if the ban doesn’t work, it will knock a couple of points off AfD’s national totals. But, they are just doing tactical retreats here. It’s not winning, it’s more trying to not lose immediately.
Because the cultural and demographic shift against this globalist insanity has already occurred.
We’re watching the old political order in Germany, held together previously by the iron fist of Angela “Stasi” Merkel, come apart at the seams. The idea that Germans would simply vote themselves out of existence because of their collective guilt was never really a starter.
At some point the German industrialist class would make their presence felt. Trump’s victory likely catalyzed this.
Davos’ whole project depended on using the generational imprint of everyone post-WWII to manufacture political realities at odds with the self-interests of those people. But that puts a time limit on the project. It had to happen before the generations that fought WWII and grew up in the rebuilding phase died off.
For example, for Germans it was their collective shame over Hitler. For Japan, it was the shame of being bombed by the Americans. For America it was stoking our self-reliance into self-righteousness.
As Howard Lutnick pointed out on CNBC a few months ago, we rebuilt these people through our dominance and allowing them to put tariffs on our goods to regenerate their local economies. Those tariffs are still in place and it’s time to remove them by negotiating much better deals for everyone.
But the demographic shift has happened. We saw it in the state elections in Germany this September, where AfD saw huge gains among the 18-29 year olds. The same thing has been happening in Greece in the aftermath of the German/EU strip-mining of the country after their multiple sovereign debt crises.
In the US the kids are moving away from the libertine Boomers. Even the Millennials are finally fulfilling their desires for authenticity, after now surviving three national bankruptcies during their lifetimes — Y2K, Lehman Bros. and COVID-19.
This allowed for Gen-X to finally come into their own and deliver the result the world needed.
So, please folks. Take the wins. Jack out of the Twitter spew for a few days. They want you anxious and afraid. It’s all they have left. Because we just told them we don’t want what they are offering or need what they’ve sold us.
Trust in the result you delivered just a little. This isn’t the same story as 2016.
Trust in media has not only collapsed, it’s now reached its terminal phase. We just broke The Wire, why on earth would we want to repair it by giving their crudity credibility?
Trump Announces New Role for Musk, Ramaswamy in Dept of Government EfficiencyPresident-elect Donald Trump announced on Tuesday night that he has tapped business magnate and former pharmaceutical executive Vivek Ramaswamy to lead his Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). “I am pleased to announce that the Great Elon Musk, working in conjunction with American Patriot Vivek Ramaswamy, will lead the Department of Government Efficiency,” Trump said in a statement. “ Together, these …READ THE FULL REPORT
Report Shows New Front-Runner for Trump’s Press Secretary SpotPresident-elect Donald Trump is reportedly considering lawyer Alina Habba to be the White House press secretary. Habba often spoke to the media while she was on the legal team representing Trump in his New York defamation and fraud civil lawsuits over the past two years. Her style with reporters was definitely combative. Mediaite reported, based on four unnamed sources, that …READ THE FULL REPORT
President Trump announces new CIA director nomineePresident-elect Trump has just announced who he is nominating to be the director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA). John Ratcliffe, who served as the Director of National Intelligence near the end of Trump’s term has accepted the nomination. Here’s what Trump said: Another fantastic pick by Trump. Of course this takes him out of the running for Attorney General …READ THE FULL REPORT
One of the World’s Richest Men Is Moving to America After Trump’s Landslide VictoryWith Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office just over two months away, America is once again open for business. Anthony Pratt, an Australian businessman whose company Pratt Industries is worth an estimated $35 billion USD, confirmed that he had been granted permanent residency in the United States. “Over the past 30 years we have invested to build 70 factories …READ THE FULL REPORT
Dem Politician Crashes Her Car While Allegedly Drunk, Hurls Vile Insults at Responding OfficerA Chicago-area Democrat hurled an insult at police Sunday after being charged with drunken driving, according to local news reports. Samantha Steele represents the Second District on the Cook County Board of Review, which decides property tax appeals, according to WGN-TV. After the Chicago incident, Steele faces a misdemeanor count of driving under the influence of alcohol, according to the …READ THE FULL REPORT
Contrary to widely expressed fears in Canada, there is plenty of room for the Canadian government of either major party to work cooperatively with the new American administration on most fronts. A couple of months ago, I had occasion to ask then-candidate Donald Trump whether Canada had anything to fear if he were elected. He said: “Your trade negotiators are better than ours, but all I’m asking is fair trade which is not a big problem with Canada.” He added that he knows the country well, has done lots of business here, and has nothing but liking and goodwill for Canada.
A poll several months ago by The Hub found that 64 percent of Canadian conservatives think Trump will increase oil and gas production if elected, and 59 percent think he will insist that Canada increase its military spending to meet the NATO commitment of 2 percent of GDP, which it has ignored up to now. The percentage of conservatives who think Trump will cut aid to Ukraine is 54 percent, according to the poll, while 52 percent think the Trump administration will impose new tariffs and 51 percent think it will restrict immigration to the United States from Canada. A renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade deal is expected by 45 percent of Canadian conservatives, and 49 percent expect a decrease in financial support for electric vehicles. More broadly, 38 percent think Trump will have a negative effect on the flow of goods between Canada and the United States, the poll showed, and 37 percent think Trump will have a negative effect on the future of NATO.
I’ll deal with these concerns in the order they were mentioned. First, since Trump has said that on Inauguration Day he will propose to reactivate the Keystone XL pipeline—which is in itself a good thing for Canada and would be welcomed in Alberta and Ottawa—and put in place incentives for the immediate expansion of American production of oil and natural gas, he will certainly increase American oil and gas production. But he has also said that he will put economic pressure on unfriendly oil-exporting countries, particularly Iran and Venezuela, and will invite other friendly countries to join the United States in decreasing the oil revenues of those countries. He specifically includes Canada in this, and the XL pipeline, if it goes ahead, will end at the Gulf of Mexico in direct competition with Venezuela.
It is expected that Trump will reimpose heavy sanctions on Iran and extend those sanctions to any other countries that defy them. It will be the position of the Trump administration that Iran is a terrorism-supporting state conducting aggressive war against a number of other countries and that in international law, the United States is right to impose sanctions upon Iran and has the complete right to enforce its sanctions by any non-violent methods that it wishes. That was the policy of his first administration, and it was very successful in strangling the flow of money and arms to the Hezbollah, Hamas, and Houthi terrorist clients of Iran. There is nothing in any of that to arouse legitimate concern with Canadians. It is the morally correct policy and will be profitable for us.
Trump will undoubtedly urge Canada to raise its defence spending to the level it has already committed to, and which Justin Trudeau has recently pledged to achieve within a few years. There is nothing harmful to Canada in this, and indeed we shouldn’t need any threats from the United States to do it. We have been appalling freeloaders in NATO for many years, and have allowed our military capability to deteriorate to the level of a small and poor country. Defence spending is among the most advantageous for a country’s well-being, with a high multiplier effect on the economy.
President-elect Trump has pledged to end the Ukraine War, but has made it clear that he will not accept Russian President Putin’s peace terms. It is clear that he will require a partial retirement from Ukraine of the Russians, but accept some accretion of Russian territory and leave Putin in no doubt that if Russia does not accept this, the United States will arm Ukraine with weapons that will carry the destruction of Russia’s aggressive war into Russian civilian areas, as the Russians have done to Ukraine almost with impunity for over two-and-a-half years.
At some early point, Putin will accept these terms and Trump, presumably with the backing of NATO, will inform Ukraine that that is the best that can be done, but that Ukraine may join NATO and the European Union as soon as it is ready, that everyone in the former borders of Ukraine will be free to move to Ukraine in its reduced borders, and that the massive military assistance it has been receiving will be replaced by comparable amounts of economic reconstruction assistance. This is the best peace that can be made, and Trump will make it. Then the West can gradually, and at no expense to any country, impress upon Russia that it is better off in alliance with the West than with China. Getting Russia out of the Chinese embrace is the other strategic objective of the West in the Ukraine war, apart from preventing Russia’s reabsorption of Ukraine.
As for tariffs, there could be some increases but they are unlikely to be drastic, and the Canadian custom is to cushion this by fine-tuning the relationship between the U.S. and Canadian dollars. The same reasoning applies to a renegotiation of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement. Trump has extensive grievances against the conduct of Mexico but minimal complaints about Canada, and to the extent that the United States requires more equitable conduct for Mexico, Canada will also benefit from that.
There is no reason to believe that Trump will restrict immigration from Canada; in fact he will probably welcome it as he is in favour of legal immigration.
There will certainly be a reduction in financial support for building electric vehicles, but this too should be a welcome development in Canada. Both incumbents in Canada and the United States have plunged into the climate hysteria and severely retarded the economic progress and competitiveness of the two countries. To the extent that Trump provides a counter-pressure, all Canadians should rejoice and even throw their hats (and toques and earmuffs) in the air.
The great plus factor in the new Trump presidency will be the sharp acceleration of U.S. economic growth and per capita disposable income. As half of Canada’s GDP is connected to the United States, this will be an overwhelmingly positive development for us: The Americans will have more and not less money to spend with us. It is very unlikely the flow of goods between Canada and the United States will decline.
Lastly, the final point about the United States being a negative force in NATO belies the facts. Trump will reinvigorate the alliance and assist it in becoming more selective in where it intervenes by a joint agreed definition of the NATO collective interest, while ensuring that we have the military force to protect that interest.
Canadians have no reason for anything except optimism about the consequences of the second Trump administration, not only for Canada but also for the world.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times or ZeroHedge.
end
Robert H to us:
CANADA
Canada is in steady decline
“Canada’s general wealth has been in a sharp decline when compared to the United States for over 10 years. In 2013, GDP per capita in the United States and Canada was nearly equal at US$53,000. Today, GPD per capita in the United States is nearing US$82,000 while Canada remains stagnant at US$53,000.”
Assuming that America breaks away from its ailing economy and returns to making goods people want and need; Canada’s living standard will continue to decline unabated without radical change of direction. Under the liberals and their ideology this is impossible. It may not be possible to change a further decline under a conservative leadership but it cannot be worse than what has been occurring.
Without a time out and change of course which may mean tough times, Canada will cease to be able to maintain most of the items that made it the country I have known. And without change, it is likely that Canada will break up as a nation as tensions and issues develop in the future. A sad state of affairs for a country with so much potential saddled with incompetence of government stewardship. “
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0626 UP 0.0009
USA/ YEN 154.84 UP 0.187 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2747 UP 0.0011
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Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 17.31 PTS OR 0.51%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 23.43 PTS OR 0.12%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN 0.76%
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Trading from Europe and ASIA
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INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2610.20
silver:$30.91
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 105.88 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.2144 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2344)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.34 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.034
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from TUESDAY at 4.392% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.550 DOWN 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.260 DOWN 8 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2606.60
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.84
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
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Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 100.38 OR 0.30%
WTI Oil price 67.39 12 EST/
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USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 98.41 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 15/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3710 UP 5 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.530 UP 3 BASIS POINTS
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British Pound: 1.2709 DOWN 0.0028 OR 28 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.5200 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.034
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 155.54 UP 0.889 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3997 UP 0.0052 CDN dollar DOWN 52 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.15
Brent OIL: 71.97
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.449
USA 30 yr bond yield up 6 BASIS PTS to 4.640%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 7 PTS AT 4.277
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.348 UP 8 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.168 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.40 UP 45 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.36 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 98.50 DOWN 0 AND 25/100 roubles
GOLD 2,575,60 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.36 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 47.21 PTS OR 0.11%
NASDAQ DOWN 34.63 PTS OR 0.16%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.86 DOWN 0,85 PTS OR 5.28%
GLD: $237.63 DOWN 2,42 OR 1.01%
SLV/ $27,61 UP 0.46 OR 1.64%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:UP 76.08 PTS OR 0.31%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bitcoin, Big-Tech, & Bond Yields Blow-Out After CPI Resurgence
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 04:00 PM
While this morning’s CPI all printed in line with expectations, it is clear that the narrative that “inflation is headed in the right direction” is on increasingly shaky grounds…
Source: Bloomberg
Disinflation has stalled in the core goods sector…
“October’s CPI report contains no information that would discourage the FOMC from cutting rates again at the December meeting.
Still, we see risks that the key outstanding information for the Fed’s preferred core PCE deflator – medical and financial services in the Producer Price Index, due Nov. 14 – may run hot in October.
That could lead to fears that underlying inflation is stuck at a high-2% level, above the Fed’s target.”
That didn’t stop the algos going wild with kneejerk surges in the dollar, stock, and bond prices, as rate-cut expectations jumped…
Source: Bloomberg
The odds of a 25bps cut by The Fed in December jumped up to 70%…
Source: Bloomberg
But, the day was still young…
Stocks gave back all of their gains by the close…
Mega-Cap Tech managed strong gains off the opening weakness but ended the day only marginally higher (still holding on to the major gains post-election)…
Source: Bloomberg
The ‘Trump Trade’ continues to surge higher…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was clubbed like a baby seal back to a 13 handle – a four-month low…
The Treasury curve massive steepened on the day as The Fed is now cornered with its rate-cutting cycle but the market knows where this ends (bullish lower rates for stocks in the short-term but long-end rates are the equalizer on any of that exuberance).
On the day, the short-end was a major outperformer (2Y -7bps, 30Y +5bps), but all yields are higher from pre-election levels with the long-end notably so…
Source: Bloomberg
…prompting a dramatic curve steepening that is screaming Fed policy error…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin was the biggest winner with a massive surge to almost $93,500 before some late-day profit-taking…
Source: Bloomberg
And while that is a record in USD terms, it remains slightly off record highs in gold terms…
Source: Bloomberg
…despite gold’s decline today, which dragged the barbarous relic down near two-month lows…
Source: Bloomberg
…not helped by the dollar’s incessant surge (to two-year highs)…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices ended the day unchanged after a big dump and pump around CPI, with WTI holding above $68…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, Goldman Sachs’ trader John Flood highlighted the 2016 analogs
Source: Goldman Sachs
Similar trend for US Financials net flows (in 2016), as observed on GS’s Prime book (i.e., HFs)…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Regarding his 2016 experience, Flood warned it is hard to trade against the current momentum, but a lot of these red sweep trades peaked in early December…
MORNING TRADING
II USA DATA
Core inflation prices rise by 3.3% m/m with regular CPI 2.2% m/m
service inflation stubbornly high
(zerohedge)
Core Consumer Prices Rise For 53rd Straight Month, Hit New Record High
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 08:40 AM
Tl;dr: The inflation story is far from over… no matter what The Fed or The White House claims…
For the 53rd straight month, core consumer prices rose on a MoM basis in October with the YoY pace re-accelerating to +3.33%…
Source: Bloomberg
Services costs are starting to pick up again…
Source: Bloomberg
The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, as it did in August and September.
The shelter index increased 0.4 percent in October.
The index for owners’ equivalent rent rose 0.4 percent and the index for rent rose 0.3 percent over the month.
The lodging away from home index rose 0.4 percent in October, after falling 1.9 percent in September.
The medical care index increased 0.3 percent over the month after increasing 0.4 percent in September.
The index for physicians’ services increased 0.5 percent in October and the prescription drugs index rose 0.2 percent over the month.
The used cars and trucks index rose 2.7 percent in October, after rising 0.3 percent in the previous month.
The index for airline fares rose 3.2 percent over the month and the index for recreation increased 0.4 percent.
Other indexes that increased in October include personal care and education.
The index for apparel fell 1.5 percent in October, following a 1.1-percent increase the preceding month.
The communication index decreased 0.6 percent over the month, as it did in September.
The index for household furnishings and operations and the index for motor vehicle insurance also declined in October.
The new vehicles index was unchanged over the month.
The index for all items less food and energy rose 3.3 percent over the past 12 months.
The shelter index increased 4.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 65 percent of the total 12-month increase in the all items less food and energy index.
Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+14.0 percent), medical care (+3.3 percent), education (+3.8 percent), and personal care (+2.5 percent).
The headline CPI rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) which reaccelerated the YoY rise to +2.6% (as expected)…
Source: Bloomberg
Goods deflation ended on a MoM basis…
Source: Bloomberg
While Goods prices are still in deflation, they are re-acclerating and Services inflation remains extremely elevated…
Source: Bloomberg
Under the hood, the much-watched (for a while) SuperCore (Services Ex-Shelter) CPI remains stubbornly high…
Source: Bloomberg
The deflationary pressures are easing…
Source: Bloomberg
On a short-term basis, it’s energy’s deflation that is doing God’s work for Biden/Harris/Powell..
Source: Bloomberg
Overall, headline consumer prices are up 20.4% since Biden/Harris took over (that is almost three times the pace of price inflation that was seen under Trump’s first term)…
Source: Bloomberg
Is a resurgence in CPI already baked in the cake (as global money supply has been resurgent)?
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, could we really replay the ’70s once again?
Source: Bloomberg
Will that really be Powell’s legacy? Or will the timing of this resurgence in inflation be perfectly timed to coincide with Trump’s election victory… and offer a perfect patsy for who is to blame?
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Trump picks John Ratcliffe to be CIA director
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 13, 2024 00:47Updated: NOVEMBER 13, 2024 01:02
US President-elect Donald Trump said on Tuesday he had picked former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe to serve as director of the Central Intelligence Agency.
Ratcliffe, a close ally of Trump, served as director of national intelligence at the end of his first term. Ratcliffe was confirmed as the nation’s top spy in May 2020, eight months before Trump left office. A former member of the House of Representatives and US attorney for Texas, he received no support from Senate Democrats during his confirmation.
As DNI, Ratcliffe was accused by Democrats and former intelligence officials of declassifying intelligence for use by Trump and his Republican allies to attack political opponents, including Joe Biden, then Trump’s rival for the presidency, a charge Ratcliffe’s office has denied.
News outlets, including Reuters, also reported on concerns that Ratcliffe exaggerated his counter-terrorism experience as a federal prosecutor in Texas.
Trump also said he had picked William McGinley to serve as his White House Counsel.
“Bill is a smart and tenacious lawyer who will help me advance our America First agenda while fighting for election integrity and against the weaponization of law enforcement,” Trump said in a statement.
McGinley had served in Trump’s first presidential term as White House cabinet secretary.
END
Fired FEMA Supervisor Claims Avoiding Trump Homes Was A Widespread Practice Due To ‘Political Hostility’
The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) supervisor accused of directing workers to skip hurricane-ravaged homes in Florida with Trump signs, claimed in an interview Monday that the policy was widespread and that she was being scapegoated.
Marn’i Washington was fired on Saturday after whistleblowers told the Daily Wire that at least 20 homes with Trump signs or flags were passed over at the end of October into November due to the guidance, depriving them of the opportunity to qualify for FEMA assistance. She had worked for the agency since 2019.
According to internal FEMA messages obtained by the Daily Wire, Washington directed workers to “avoid homes advertising Trump” as they canvassed Lake Placid, Florida looking for residents who could qualify for federal aid.
This happened in Highlands County, “a deep-red area located in south central Florida that backed Trump by 70 percent on Tuesday,” the Daily Wire reported. The area was ravaged by tornadoes, torrential wind, rain, and flooding after Milton made landfall at Siesta Key on October 9 as a category 3 hurricane.
Washington’s directive was one among multiple “best practices” the agency recommended, along with “practice de-escalation and preventative measures,” “bring a towel with you tomorrow in the field” and take “frequent breaks and drink water.”
During an interview with YouTube podcaster Roland Martin Monday, Washington,39, explained that she had just been following FEMA’s policy of avoiding “politically hostile” homes. She said her supervisor had approved the message, explaining: “FEMA preaches avoidance first, and then de-escalation. This is not isolated. This is a colossal event of avoidance.”
“Not just in the state of Florida. You will find avoidance in the Carolinas,” said Washington, adding that the incident reports would substantiate that FEMA workers were being met with “hostility” at homes with Trump Campaign signs.
“If you look at the record, there is what we call a community trend, and it just so happened that the political hostility that was encountered by my team—and I was on two different teams during this deployment—they just so happened to have the Trump Campaign signage,” Washington asserted.
“Senior leadership will lie to you and tell you that they do not know, but if you ask the crew leads and specialists what they’re experiencing in the field, they will tell you,” she continued. “Demand for FEMA to give you those incident reports, they will substantiate what is happening to us in the field.”
“FEMA’s very well aware of the incidents that take place, not just with my crew, but with all the crews in the states,” Washington added.
The embattled former FEMA worker claimed that she knew of houses in the past had also been marked “politically hostile” when they had Harris-Walz signs or no political signs at all.
“We omitted these homes for safety precautions, not because of political play,” she insisted.
“If you greet any of our team members with hostility or aggression, we will deescalate and disengage and move on,” she said. “We cannot take the risk and deal with that type of behavior.”
Washington told Martin that she was fired from her job with a private real estate firm in the wake of the controversy, and had to move from her home due to threats.
A former FEMA official told the New York Post, however, that the policy of “openly” avoiding Trump-supporting houses had “been practiced by agency workers for years,” and suggested that the practice had noting to do with perceived “hostility.”
The ex-FEMA source said current employees told him that disaster assistance teams skip openly Trump-supporting houses in the name of DEI.
The unofficial policy is to “prioritize the most under resourced, marginalized communities first,” the source said.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has launched an investigation into the practice, calling it “blatant weaponization of government by partisan activists in the federal bureaucracy is yet another reason why the Biden-Harris administration is in its final days” in a statement Friday.
“At my direction, the Division of Emergency Management is launching an investigation into the federal government’s targeted discrimination of Floridians who support Donald Trump,” DeSantis said. “New leadership is on the way in DC, and I’m optimistic that these partisan bureaucrats will be fired.”
The House Oversight Committee meanwhile launched an investigation into FEMA on Friday and sent a letter to Criswell requesting she testify at a hearing to answer questions about the agency’s response to hurricanes Helene and Milton.
Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) said on X Tuesday that the Senate Homeland Security Committee also needs to investigate the matter.
“The Homeland Security Committee needs to launch an immediate investigation and call this individual to testify. Under oath. In public,” Hawley said.
With Republicans retaking the Senate, Homeland Security Committee Ranking Member Rand Paul (R-Ky.) is line to take the HSGAC gavel early next year.
END
“America’s Enemies Are On Notice” – Trump Taps Bronze Star Recipient, Fox News Host Pete Hegseth For SecDef
Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024 – 08:20 PM
President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday nominated veteran, author, and Fox News host Pete Hegseth as the Secretary of Defense for his second administration.
Hegseth, who has spent the past eight years as a host on Fox News’ “FOX & Friends Weekend,” has been a major advocate for veterans and the military.
“Pete has spent his entire life as a Warrior for the Troops, and for the Country.
Pete is tough, smart and a true believer in America First. With Pete at the helm, America’s enemies are on notice – Our Military will be Great Again, and America will Never Back Down.
Pete is a graduate of Princeton University, and has a Graduate Degree from Harvard University.
He is an Army Combat Veteran who did tours in Guantanamo Bay, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
For his actions on the battlefield, he was decorated with two Bronze Stars, as well as a Combat Infantryman’s Badge.
Pete has been a host at FOX News for eight years, where he used that platform to fight for our Military and Veterans.”
Trump also commented in his statement on Hegseth’s best-selling book, which advocated for veterans:
Pete’s recent book, “The War on Warriors,” spent nine weeks on the New York Times best-sellers list, including two weeks at NUMBER ONE.
The book reveals the leftwing betrayal of our Warriors, and how we must return our Military to meritocracy, lethality, accountability, and excellence.
Pete has also led two Veterans Advocacy organizations, leading the fight for our Warriors, and our great Veterans.
Nobody fights harder for the Troops, and Pete will be a courageous and patriotic champion of our “Peace through Strength” policy.”
The Hill reports that Fox News confirmed Hegseth’s deal with the network ended on Tuesday and he will not host its popular morning program “Fox and Friends Weekend,” a program he had presided over since 2017.
“Pete Hegseth has been an exceptional host on FOX & Friends and FOX Nation and a best-selling author for FOX News Books for nearly a decade,” a spokesperson for the cable channel said.
“His insights and analysis especially about the military resonated deeply with our viewers and made the program the major success that it is today. We are extremely proud of his work at FOX News and wish him the best of luck in Washington.”
Trump’s pick of Hegseth was somewhat unexpected, as his name had not been circulated among those likely to be considered for the job, but his resumé speaks for itself.
Of course, none other than Senator Liz Warren apparently decided not to actually look into Hegseth’s background and dropped one of her most clueless tweets ever (and that is saying something)…
If you want to get a sense of who Hegseth, we highly recommend watching his appearance on an episode of The Shawn Ryan Show released November 7.
HEGSETH: There’s a chance to course correct it, but, it would take the new a new Trump administration going after it really hard.
RYAN: How would they correct it? Well, first of all, you got a fire.
HEGSETH: “You’ve got to fire the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs and obviously, to bring in a new Secretary of Defense, but any General that was involved, General, Admiral, whatever that was involved in any of the DEI woke sh*t has got to go.”
“Either you’re in for war fighting and that’s it. That’s the only litmus test we care about. You got to get DEI and CRT out of military academies. You’re not training young officers to be baptized in this type of thinking. And then, you know, whatever the standards, whatever the combat standards were, say, and, I don’t know, 1995, let’s just make those the standards. And as far as recruiting to hire the guy that, you know, did Top Gun Maverick and create some real ads that motivate people to want to serve.”
“And there’s lots of other ways in which you could identify who gets promoted and what. But there’s an ethos change, I mean, there’s a reason we’re not, people don’t want to serve because they don’t trust that their senior leaders are going to have their best interest in mind in combat.”
“I know there were mistakes made on our tours all over the place. But I, at least for the most part, had a sense that my senior leaders were committed to the completion of the mission for the right reasons, and maybe there were strategic differences and all that other stuff. And it wasn’t always perfect, but now that trust is broken. And you have to reestablish that trust by by putting in no nonsense warfighters in those positions who aren’t going to cater to the socially correct garbage.“
END
“The Manhattan Project” Of Our Time: Musk And Vivek Ramaswamy To Head Department Of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024 – 08:00 PM
Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have been selected by President-elect Donald Trump to head the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), where they will “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies,” according to an official release from the Trump-Vance transition team, which called this “potentially, the “Manhattan Project” of our time.”
According to the statement, “Their work will conclude no later than July 4, 2026” – the nation’s 250th anniversary.
Musk previously predicted he could cut at least $2 trillion from the US federal budget, while Ramaswamy suggested firing federal workers based on their social security numbers.
“Here’s how: if your [Social Security number] ends in an odd number, you’re fired,” he wrote on X.
In September, Ramaswamy told podcaster Lex Fridman: “Get in there on day one, say that anybody in the federal bureaucracy who is not elected, elected representatives obviously were elected by the people, but the people who are not elected, if your social security number ends in an odd number, you’re out, if it ends in an even number, you’re in. There’s a 50% cut right there. Of those who remain, if your social security number starts in an even number, you’re in and if it starts with an odd number, you’re out. Boom. That’s a 75% reduction done. Literally, stochastically, okay, one of the virtues of that, it’s a thought experiment, not a policy prescription, but one of the virtues of that thought experiment is that you don’t have a bunch of lawsuits you’re dealing with about gender discrimination or racial discrimination or political viewpoint discrimination.”
So the way I would do it, 75% headcount reduction across the board in the federal bureaucracy, send them home packing, shut down agencies that shouldn’t exist, rescind every unconstitutional regulation that Congress never passed. In a true self-governing democracy, it should be our elected representatives that make the laws and the rules not unelected bureaucrats. And that is the single greatest form of economic stimulus we could have in this country, but it is also the single most effective way to restore self-governance in our country as well. And it is the blueprint for, I think, how we save this country.
…
…most people who have run a company, especially larger companies know this, it’s 25% of the people who do 80 to 90% of the useful work, these government agencies are no different.
And how many government workers do we have?
Watch the entire interview here:
“This will send shockwaves through the system, and anyone involved in Government waste, which is a lot of people,” Musk said on Tuesday in a statement provided by the Trump transition team.
Earlier in the day, Trump said the new government efficiency effort would develop a plan to eliminate “fraud and improper payments,” conducting a “complete financial and performance audit” of the federal government. Trump also said that the panel would partner with the White House’s Office of Management and Budget.
In the last fiscal year, the federal government spent more than $6.75 trillion – of which more than $5.3 trillion was spent on Social Security, health care, defense and veterans’ benefits.
“Warrior For Truth & Honesty” – Trump Names John Ratcliffe As CIA Director
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 12, 2024 – 06:50 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has announced he has selected John Ratcliffe as director of the CIA.
“John Ratcliffe has always been a warrior for Truth and Honesty with the American Public,” Trump wrote in a message sent on the evening of Nov. 12, the latest in a flurry of Tuesday evening appointments.
“I look forward to John being the first person ever to serve in both of our Nation’s highest Intelligence positions.
He will be a fearless fighter for the Constitutional Rights of all Americans, while ensuring the Highest Levels of National Security, and PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH.”
Ratcliffe, an attorney, served as director of national intelligence during the first Trump term.
Originally from Illinois, Ratcliffe earned his undergraduate degree from the University of Notre Dame before obtaining a law degree from Southern Methodist University.
He was later U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of Texas and, from 2004 until 2012, mayor of Heath, Texas, a community in metro Dallas-Fort Worth.
While in Congress, he was a member of the House Intelligence Committee and the House Judiciary Committee.
During Trump’s first term, Ratcliffe made a name for himself as a staunch Trump loyalist.
Trump dropped an early attempt to elevate Ratcliffe to the director of national intelligence position in 2019.
But the following year, he renewed the effort, nominating him in May against the backdrop of the COVID-19 response.
END
Trump Picks Matt Gaetz For Attorney General
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 13, 2024 – 03:32 PM
The hits to the establishment keep on coming – as President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) for Attorney General of the United States.
“It is my Great Honor to announce that Congressman Matt Gaetz, of Florida, is hereby nominated to be The Attorney General of the United States,” Trump said in a statement.
“Matt is a deeply gifted and tenacious attorney, trained at the William & Mary College of Law, who has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice.”
In response, Gaetz said on X; “It will be an honor to serve as President Trump’s Attorney General!”
Over the past year, Gaetz has made headlines with pro-crypto, pro-Trump moves:
Gabbard broke with Democrats to endorse Trump in his 2024 presidential run in August.
Here’s Trump’s full statement:
I am pleased to announce that former Congresswoman, Lieutenant Colonel Tulsi Gabbard, will serve as Director of National Intelligence (DNI).
For over two decades, Tulsi has fought for our Country and the Freedoms of all Americans.
As a former Candidate for the Democrat Presidential Nomination, she has broad support in both Parties – she is now a proud Republican!
I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength.
Tulsi will make us all proud!
Tulsi Gabbard Biography:
4-Term Congresswoman, 2020 presidential candidate, and NYT Bestselling Author.
Veteran with three deployments to war zones in the Middle East and Africa.
Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army Reserve, serving as Battalion Commander of the 1/354 Regiment in Tulsa, Oklahoma.
Leads her nonprofit organization, “We Must Protect.”
Tulsi first served in elected office in the Hawaii State House of Representatives when she was 21 years old. After the 9/11 attacks, she enlisted in the Army National Guard. In 2004, she gave up an easy re-election campaign to volunteer for deployment to Iraq with the 29th Brigade Combat Team, serving in a medical unit.
After returning home in 2006, Tulsi worked in the U.S. Senate as a legislative aide to the late Senator Danny Akaka, Chairman of the Senate Veterans Affairs Committee. She later volunteered for a second Middle East deployment as a Platoon Leader.
Having experienced firsthand the true cost of war, Tulsi ran for United States Congress at age 31, vowing to honor the lives and sacrifices of her brothers and sisters in uniform. She won a challenging election and served in Congress for eight years, contributing to the Armed Services, Homeland Security, and Foreign Affairs Committees. Forgoing reelection in 2020, she ran for president as a Democrat.
In October 2022, Tulsi announced her departure from the Democrat Party to become an Independent. She prioritizes country over party, focusing on ensuring the safety, security, and freedom of the American people.
Her first book, For Love of Country: Leave the Democrat Party Behind, was released on April 30, 2024, and hit #4 on the New York Times Bestsellers List.
On August 26, 2024, Tulsi formally endorsed President Trump for a second term, later serving as co-chair of his transition team. On October 22, 2024, she joined the Republican Party, citing President Trump’s leadership in transforming the party into one for the people and for peace.
What was Mark Cuban’s comment about Trump not surrounding himself with strong women?
Remember when Biden’s Transportation Security Administration placed Tulsi on the Quiet Skies program—a domestic terror watch list? Well, get ready, swamp – because this strong woman is coming in hot…
. . .
Gabbard’s appointment to lead the DNI will require Senate approval and will likely unsettle career bureaucrats.
Deep State Dems are not happy… quick play the Russia card!!!
There were a few seemingly tense moments at the FOMC press conference on Thursday when two reporters asked Jerome Powell about the prospect of Donald Trump asking Powell to resign.
The first reporter asked “would you resign if asked to do so by Donald Trump?”
To this, Powell responded with a resounding “no” followed by silence.
A few moments later, Powell was asked by another reporter if it was lawful for Trump to either remove or “demote”—that is, remove Powell as chairman, but leave him on the Board of Governors—Powell.
To this, Powell responded with a forceful “not permitted under the law.”
Apparently, Powell wished to leave no ambiguity whatsoever about this position that he cannot be removed or demoted by a sitting president.
It would agree that the spirit of the law here is that a president not be able to remove a Fed chairman, except for some kind of misconduct. But, ambiguity remains. Even Alan Blinder, a proponent of the myth of “Fed independence,” admits that in the world of political reality, Trump could potentially remove Powell:
Experts who spoke to ABC News acknowledged that some legal ambiguity looms over what type of conduct warrants sufficient cause for removal, but they said a policy dispute is unlikely to meet such a standard. Still, Trump could attempt to push out Powell and test how courts interpret the law, experts added, noting that the case could end up with the conservative-majority Supreme Court.
“Trump could try and he might try,” Alan Blinder, a professor of economics at Princeton University and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve. “It’s very unlikely that he has that authority, but if he takes this to the Supreme Court, I don’t know what to think of the Supreme Court.”
Instead, Trump could leave Powell in his position on the Fed’s 7-member Board of Governors but demote him from his role as chair, Blinder said.
“That’s a subtle question that has never been tested,” Blinder said, acknowledging a lack of clarity about whether it would be allowed. “We can’t answer that quite as definitively.”
In any case, Trump would likely have to expend some serious political capital if he wants to remove Powell via presidential power.
Yet, Powell’s defiance ought to provoke us to ask why wealthy, pampered, out-of-touch technocrats like Jerome Powell get to act like their removal constitutes some sort of transgression. Central bankers are just bureaucrats, and their removal ought to be regarded with no more trepidation than the removal of an undersecretary of agriculture.
Congress Should Fire Powell, and Not Stop There
Regardless of what Trump’s legal powers may be, it is clear that Congress has the power to remove Powell, just as Congress has the power to abolish the central bank altogether.
The Congress ought to abolish the Fed entirely, of course, but if members lack the stomach for that heroic act, Congress can begin with amending the Federal Reserve Act to make it clear that the chairman of the Fed is not a Holy Person, untouchable by the mere mortals who are actually elected to run the federal government. There are many ways Congress could approach this issue. For example, Congress could rewrite the law to allow Congress to remove the Fed chairman with a majority vote in either house. It doesn’t really matter, so long as central bankers get the message that they’re not special.
While Congress is at it, it could make a few other crucial changes as well. Congress should prohibit the Fed from buying any assets of any kind. This would end the Fed’s habit of buying up mortgage-backed securities and government securities to prop up the banker class and Powell’s buddies—i.e., Janet Yellen—at the Treasury. It would also end the Fed’s ability to manipulate interest rates since the Fed’s main tool here is its “open market operations.”
A second key change that is very necessary is removing the Fed’s so called “dual mandate.” As the Fed likes to often mention, the Fed has a dual mandate of both “stable prices” and “maximum employment.” Congress should immediately abolish the mandate for “maximum employment” because the only purpose this has ever served has been as an excuse for the central bank to inflate the money supply. As is abundantly clear from Fed press conferences and publications, the Fed routinely justifies its dovish policy in terms of fulfilling its mandate to maximize inflation. That is, the Fed often says something to the effect of “we’re embracing easy-money policy because our dual mandate to maximize employment says we have to.” Congress should just delete the mandate.
(By the way, the Fed actually has a third mandate. It’s to ensure “moderate long-term interest rates.” Getting rid of the Fed’s power to purchase assets probably nullifies this mandate in any case, but Congress might as well remove any doubt and totally prohibit the Fed from manipulating interest rates of any kind.)
Fed Independence Has Never Been Used for Good Things
Of course, if Congress were to attempt any of this, Fed simps in the media and in Congress will try to talk about how such things are unprecedented and we must respect “Fed independence.” Media stories in the Fed often claim that attempts by elected officials to rein in Fed technocrats violate “long-standing norms” that respect Fed independence.
This is a fantasy version of history. There is not now, and there has never been, any such thing as Fed independence because the Fed always willingly helps the regime get what it wants.
Early on, Fed independence didn’t even exist in theory, and was explicitly limited in law. Prior to 1935, the Comptroller of the Currency and the Secretary of the Treasury sat on the Fed’s Board, thus ensuring a direct line from the White House to the Fed.
In 1933, of course, Franklin Roosevelt issued an executive order abolishing the gold standard and ordering the Fed to turn over all its gold to the Treasury. So much for “Fed independence” under the Left’s favorite twentieth-century president.
Even after 1935, it was understood that the Fed would always assist the Treasury with funding whenever necessary. This again became obvious during the Second World War when the Fed essentially helped launder funds for the war effort. The Fed agreed in 1942 to peg interest rates on government securities. The Fed also engaged in a variety of price control measures and regulations designed to assist the White House.
Only since the Monetary Accord of 1951 has there been a de jure nod to giving the Fed autonomy on policy. The Fed has never used any of this alleged autonomy to do anything good, however. We’ve seen this proven countless times since the Fed has always gladly done its part to ensure the Treasury gets what it wants. From the Fed’s efforts to finance federal deficits in the 1970s, to the Plaza Accord in 1985, and to the flood of easy money since 2008, the Fed has never used its so-called independence to actually rein in federal profligacy.
What Matters to the Fed Is Protecting the Banking Class
Central bankers have never cared about Fed independence as a way of limiting state power.
According to its own historical narrative, the Fed has now allegedly been “autonomous” for sixty years or more. Has inflation and federal spending been more restrained during that time? Obviously not.
The Fed has always and everywhere been happy to enrich the state, regardless of whatever levels of self-governance it might achieve.
The real reason the Fed wants more independence is so the Fed can also more easily enrich the banker class while also making the Treasury happy. That is, the banking cartel that works hand in glove with the Fed cares deeply about having control over who gets onto the Board of Governors and who gets to be chairman. The elite bankers are perfectly willing to effectively serve the Treasury so long as the cartel gets to have its own people in charge. This is how the banker class ensures that its monopolistic powers are protected, the competition is crushed, and the bailouts are guaranteed.
If the Fed pushes back against the elected government, it’s only if the priorities of the elected government conflict with the Fed’s priority, which is serving the interests of the banker class. Experience makes it abundantly clear that central bankers are fine with endless price inflation. But, the Fed wants to inflate in a way that most suits the Fed and the banking cartel. That’s why Powell and the Fed are so opposed to the idea of being removed from office. There is no higher principle here. There is only power.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
KING REPORT
The King Report November 13, 2024 Issue 7369
Independent View of the News
Bitcoin jumped above $90,000 and then reversed to the downside. However, in the afternoon, Bitcoin jumped back to $90k while gold sank. It certainly looks like someone big is short Bitcoin/long gold.
The Hang Send Index -2.84%; CSI 300 -1.10%, Shanghai Comp -1.39%; Nikkei -0.4% (DJT tariffs)
European bourses declined sharply: Euro Stoxx 50 -2.25%, FTSE -1.22%, CAC 40 -2.69%, DAX -2.13%, IBEX 35 -1.85%, MIB -2.14% at 10:45 ET. The euro hit a yearly low vs. the dollar. This is due to Trump’s agenda: Honor your NATO defense spending agreement and institute fair trade or face tariffs.
The Euro Stoxx Financial Service index tumbled as much as 3.13%.
Bonds, stocks, and commodities decline in early US trading while the dollar rallied sharply. This smells like concern that the October CPI Report, due today, could be worse than expected. If October CPI ticks up, the expected December Fed rate cut is gone with the wind.
GS Kashkari also said it might take a year or two to get inflation to 2% due to housing dynamics.
The Fed, particularly PE Powell and Fed doves, have for many moons vehemently stressed that the Fed will not make decisions based on one or a few data points. Now, with DJT elected, Fed officials are now asserting that a bad October CPI, which is one data point by our math, will change Fed rate police! ‘The market is right’: Former Fed policymaker Mester sees fewer rate cuts next year after Trump’s victory (The rates cuts were political!) “It’s not just going to be tariffs. There’s things going on on immigration, there’s probably going to be things going on on the tax side, and there’ll be spending also,” Mester said… https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/12/ex-cleveland-fed-president-mester-sees-fewer-rate-cuts-after-trump-win.html
Fed Chair candidate Judy Shelton @judyshel: The Fed is setting itself up to blunt the impact of the incoming Trump administration’s supply-side economic growth agenda. When President Trump was increasing pressure on China through tariffs and calling them out for currency manipulation in August 2019, the Fed decided to cut interest rates—three times—due to “uncertainty.” What it really reflected was the fact that the Fed’s rate-setting committee had come around to agreeing with Trump that they had gone too far in raising rates in 2018 (raised 4 times, even though inflation stayed below their 2% target the whole time) and needed to take three of them back. They didn’t want to seem to have caved and didn’t want to say he was right. Now they want to raise interest rates suddenly post-election after signaling they wanted to recalibrate to neutral rates. I’ll say it again. Fed has become too powerful, too prominent, and too political.
Ex-Fed Senior trader @FedGuy12: All this pearl clutching about Fed independence is nonsense. Fed is not independent, it is basically a branch of the Democratic party. You can see this in many ways. 1) Political donations by Fed employees overwhelming go to the Democrats. 2) Former FRBNY president (ex-GS chief economist Dudley) is comfortable writing columns suggesting Fed conduct policy against Trump. 3) Former Fed Chair and Fed Vice Chair just sliding into senior roles in the Biden White House. 4) Fed Chair happily supporting Biden fiscal policy, then feigns ignorance afterwards. 5) Fed making moves on political issues like climate regulations for banks. 6) Fed staff pumping research on climate change and DEI stuff that just aren’t in their mission. I think the Fed would better serve the public if it were more politically balanced.
@SquawkCNBC: “The Fed often claims it has responsibility for stable prices, but nobody got fired after we had the worst inflation in 40 years. I think it’s healthy to challenge some of the powers that have been accumulated by the Federal Reserve,” says @judyshel on calls to #EndTheFed. https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/1856314178752958473
Trump Inherits Turd of an Economy – Ed Dowd (HSBC, DLJ, and BlackRock alum) Dowd explains, “Real weekly wage growth was minus 2% going into the election. It is also interesting to know that minus 2% number of wage growth was also in 1980 when Ronald Reagan won in a landslide and also in 1992 when Bill Clinton won in a landslide. . . . I have never seen such blatant manipulation of government statistics. There is government spending and government hiring to paper over what is truly a bad economy for the average man… The other big problem that Trump needs to get in front of is the CV19 bioweapon vax disaster. Dowd says, “We have been monitoring and tracking excess deaths, disabilities and injuries such as heart attacks, neurological problems, cancers and liver issues. There is a whole host of issues that have gone off the charts since the introduction of the Covid vaccines. As of 2023, there was about 1.2 million excess deaths in the US. There were about four million disabilities and about 32 million injured. . . https://usawatchdog.com/trump-inherits-turd-of-an-economy-ed-dowd/
@DowdEdward: Commercial Real Estate Elephant – The Fed knows and it’s bad. The banks have extended and pretended hiding losses creating fragility in the system. $3 Trillion sits on banks books.
ESZs traded negatively, but within a 10-handle range from the Nikkei opening until they broke lower after 5 ET. After hitting a low of 6012.25 at 5:26 ET, ESZs rallied to the daily high of 6036.50 at 9:38 ET. The dump began; ESZs tumbled to a daily low of 5986.75 at 12:58 ET. The ingrained afternoon rally took ESZs to 6027.75 at 14:41 ET. But fear of the October CPI Report reappeared.
ESZs sank to 6008.50 at 15:56 ET. The late manipulation pushed ESZs to 6016.00 at the NYSE close.
Positive aspects of previous session The drumbeats for Fed reform are getting louder – and the Fed is inviting a beatdown. The NY Fang+ Index rallied on NFLX (+1.77%), NVDA (+1.66%), MSFT (+1.35%), and ServiceNow
Negative aspects of previous session The Fed could halt its rate cut cycle due to DJT’s victory, which is a horrible optics! An increasing number of people believe the Fed is overtly political. Stocks, bonds, and commodities (ex-energy) declined sharply, possibly on no more rate cuts. The S&P 500 Index could not hold 6000 and closed at 5983.99.
Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar rallied sharply, again. The Bloomberg Dollar Index hit its highest level since 2022.
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5984.66 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6009.92; 5960.08
Porn site traffic surges to 12-year high after Mattel mistakenly prints URL on ‘Wicked’ doll boxeshttps://trib.al/Dy0GaOO
FEMA worker accused of telling staff to skip hurricane-ravaged Trump homes claims it was common practice: ‘This is not isolated’ https://trib.al/UJJ0rDZ
Trump is pondering nominating GOP Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), a hawk on China and Iran, to be his Secretary of State. He named South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem to head Homeland Security (bewildering pick!). DJT named Mike Huckabee to be Ambassador to Israel.
Trump nominated his ex-Director of National Intelligence, John Radcliffe, to be CIA Director.
Trump selected William McGinley to be White House Chief of Counsel McGinley was counsel for the RNC’s Election Integrity team.
DJT nominated Pete Hegseth (Princeton, Harvard, Bear Stearns, National Guard, 2 Bronze Stars Iraq & Afghanistan tours, Fox & Friends host) to be Secretary of Defense.
@WesternLensman: Newly appointed Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on reforming US military leadership: Anyone “involved in the woke sh*t has got to go…you have to reestablish that trust by putting in no-nonsense warfighters in those positions who aren’t going to cater to the socially correct garbage.”… https://x.com/WesternLensman/status/1856497145588679059
Trump named Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead the Department of Government Efficiency. @elonmusk: Threat to democracy? Nope, threat to BUREAUCRACY!!!
@henryrodgersdc: Scooplet: Hearing that Missouri AG Andrew Bailey and Matt Whitaker are the finalists for Attorney General. Bailey has met with Trump a few times and appears to have the edge.
The FT: Bessent and Lutnick (Cantor Fitz CEO) lead Trump Treasury job race after Paulson exits
@susancrabtree: EXCLUSIVE to @RCPolitics: Sources in the Secret Service community tell me that Sean Curran, who has been close to Trump for years and led his detail during the campaign, is a leading candidate for Secret Service director…Other names suggested by current and former Secret Service agents and officers include Dan Bongino… Another name in the mix is Tom Armas, a U.S. Marine general who also previously served several years as a Secret Service agent… https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/1856413770673017046
Trump Draft Executive Order Would Create Board to Purge Generals – WSJ Panel could upend military review process and raise concerns about politicization of military The Trump transition team is considering a draft executive order that establishes a “warrior board” of retired senior military personnel with the power to review three- and four-star officers and to recommend removals of any deemed unfit for leadership. If Donald Trump approves the order, it could fast-track the removal of generals and admirals found to be “lacking in requisite leadership qualities,” according to a draft of the order… https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-draft-executive-order-would-create-board-to-purge-generals-7ebaa606
@toddstarnes: Legacy Media enraged over Trump’s purported plan to fire woke generals. Just remember that President Barack Hussein Obama fired at least 197 officers — all rock-solid patriots.
@Cernovich:Pete Hegseth’s position is shaking up the regime the most. Expect an onslaught of hoaxes against him. GEN MILLEY knows that a real investigation and court martial is on the table now.
Today – The October CPI Report will dictate pre-NYSE trading and early NYSE trading. An inline or softer than expected CPI will generate a robust rally. However, the rally could be short lived because current and recent Fed officials are publicly floating halting rate cuts due to DJT’s victory.
A higher-than-expected October CPI should foment spirited selling of most everything.
Five fed officials are scheduled to speak. Astute traders, operators, and investors will diligently listen to them to ascertain if they are suggesting a change in Fed rate cut policy.
Expected economic data and Fed speakers: Oct NCPI 0.2% m/m & 2.6% y/y; Core CPI 0.3% m/m & 3.3% y/y; Minn Fed Pres GS Kashkari 8:30 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 9:30 ET, Dallas Fed Pres Logan 9:45 ET, St. Louis Fed Pres Musalem 13:00 ET, KC Fed Pres Schmid 13:30 ET
ESZs are -7.50; NQZs are-41.50; ESZs are +10/32, and Bitcoin is 88,030 at 20:40 ET.
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5745; 100-day MA: 5625; 150-day MA: 5494; 200-day MA: 5395 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,239; 100-day MA: 41,176; 150-day MA: 40,366; 200-day MA: 39,998 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (5983.99 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5218.49 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5509.91 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5839.31 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative– a close above 6005.38 triggers a buy signal
Obama Isn’t Going Anywhere Immediately after Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat, Obama set in motion the multi-pronged operation to undermine his successor. Obama told his FBI Director James Comey to continue the investigation, and surveillance, of the president-elect that was initiated while Trump was the GOP candidate. Further, the outgoing president directed CIA chief John Brennan to produce an official assessment asserting that Trump owed the presidency to Putin. By using the U.S. government’s official imprimatur to validate the conspiracy theory that Trump had been compromised by a foreign power, Obama delegitimized Trump’s presidency at its birth and divided the country. Now Obama is looking for another play, and it appears that it involves splitting the armed forces. In a report on Pentagon officials discussing how to respond in the event Trump issued unlawful orders, CNN correspondent Natasha Bertrand emphasized the threat implicit in Austin’s wording and wrote that “the US military will obey only lawful orders.” Bertrand famously drove the Trump-Russia narrative with leaks from intelligence officials, and in October 2020, she was first to report on the letter authored by 51 former spies falsely claiming that Hunter Biden’s laptop was “Russian disinformation.” That is, the CNN reporter is a delivery mechanism for anti-Trump information operations, and this particular op has been in the works for nearly a year… It might seem strange to threaten to destabilize the country on behalf of defense bureaucrats and illegal aliens, but the former constitute a crucial part of Obama’s network… Would Obama fracture the military to once again cripple Trump’s term in office? The former president is in a decidedly weaker position and facing a battle-hardened Trump. Still, it would be reckless to assume the best from the man who already proved his willingness to weaponize the national security apparatus against his political opponent. The president-elect shouldn’t take any chances. https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/obama-not-going-anywhere
@EricLDaugh: GOP Senate candidate Eric Hovde of Wisconsin says he was ahead on Election Night, but then suddenly lost the lead when his opponent won “nearly 99%” of ballots dumped at 4AM in Milwaukee. Hovde also said he’s been reached out to about precincts in Milwaukee having “over 200%” turnout. He also pointed to a Democrat third party plant who swiped enough votes away from potential GOP voters to prevent Hovde from winning. “If either of these candidates had not been in the race, the outcome would be different today. Is this right and fair to deceive voters?” “What happened in this election does not inspire confidence in our process.” Hovde added that he is still considering all options and will announce his next move soon.
@pepesgrandma: The Milwaukee voter issues are more than serious! Voter turnout has far surpassed what has been witnessed in dictatorships immensely! At 4 AM, 108,000 absentee ballots were dropped with 90% going to the democrat. Many precincts with 150-200% registered voter turnout. Now this isn’t just a red flag, it’s election fraud.
@ChuckCallesto: Police report filed as EVIDENCE emerges that Nevada Officials DELETED 26,902 ballots from their own reported mail in ballot totals… The deletion was done overnight between Thursday and Friday. GOP candidate Sam Brown was, at the time LEADING his US Senate race and eventually lost… https://x.com/ChuckCallesto/status/1856475578443948270/photo/1
Melania Trump declines to meet with Jill Biden at White House, citing Mar-a-Lago raid: sourcehttps://trib.al/77pzpO4
@seanmdav: FEC records show two separate payments of $500,000 from the Harris campaign to Oprah’s production company in October. Thanks for playing. https://t.co/OiNHt4FCvS
@LizMacDonaldFOX: Major Nielsen ratings plunge at MSNBC since Trump won, practically every day since. Just one example – 10/30 Wednesday vs Fri 11/8 – Morning Joe 1st hour – down 39.6% Morning Joe 2d hour – down 36.9% Andrea Mitchell – down 39.7% Ari Melber – down 49.6% Joy Reid’s Reidout – down 54.6% All-in w Chris Hayes – down 47.2% Alex Wagner Tonight- down 53.6% Lawrence O’Donnell – down 60.6% Stephanie Ruhle – down 67% Comcast reportedly in talks to spin off MSNBC and its cables for potential sale.
CNN Exit Poll Gender by Marital Status Married Men: Trump 60% (+22), Harris 38% Married Women: Trump 51% (+3), Harris 48% Unmarried Men: Trump 49% (+2), Harris 47% Unmarried Women: Harris 59% (+21), Trump 38% https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1856355263730667529/photo/1
538 Pollster Nate Silver: Republicans are generally happy when you agree with them partway or half the time. Admittedly, the sorts of Republicans who encounter our work are not a representative sample, probably being on the moderate side — though you can find plenty of Trump supporters in the Silver Bulletin comments section. Democrats, however — and here, I’m not referring so much to Silver Bulletin subscribers but in the broader universe online — often get angry with you when you only halfway agree with them. And I really think this difference in personality profiles tells you a little something about why Trump won: Trump was happy to take on all comers, whereas with Democrats, disagreement on any hot-button topic (say, COVID school closures or Biden’s age) will have you cast out as a heretic. That’s not a good way to build a majority, and now Democrats no longer have one… https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-model-exactly-predicted-the-most
@NeriaKraus: I asked President Biden if he thinks that he can get a hostage deal done by the end of his term. He answered, commenting on the number of cameramen in the room: “do you think that you can get hit in the head by the camera behind you?”https://x.com/NeriaKraus/status/1856387921953128480
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING JIM RICKARDS
AI in the Kill Chain Will End Up Getting You Killed – Jim Rickards
Seven-time, best-selling financial author Jim Rickards predicted in July 2023 (when gold was trading in the $1,600 range) that the yellow metal would get a big boost. He was correct. In his new book called “Money GPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy,” Rickards lays out the case for AI-caused disasters in everything from finance to nuclear war. Rickards says, “About five stocks are upwards of 40% of the entire index. Almost all those gains are being driven by AIs: Nvidia, AMD, Microsoft, Apple, Facebook/Meta and Google. We all know their names. The market is going higher on AI, and nobody wants to say anything negative on AI. I have studied this very closely, and there are these huge dangers for investors that they need to be aware of. Any crash is going to be worse because AI will be accelerating it.”
It gets worse with an AI driven world, especially when it comes to nuclear war. AI can and will accelerate that too. Rickards explains, “You can’t teach a computer common sense. You can teach it rules. You can make it go up the escalation ladder for war. A stock market crash is pretty bad, but nuclear annihilation is far worse. I am offering constructive advice in the book saying here’s the problem. Here’s how it works. Don’t put AI in the kill chain because you will end up getting killed.
Rickards is hoping Trump can deescalate the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East. Even if Trump is able to turn down the volume on the war drums, the economy is already in big trouble. Rickards says, “The US economy is definitely in for slowing growth at best, and probably a recession in the next 9 months. Trump is going to get blamed for it because if you are President, you get blamed for whatever happens even though he has nothing to do with it. This recession is already happening. The stock market will draw down, and from there, I think it will come back. Trump’s policies are enacted. They get a tax bill through. They get tariffs up. They create high paying US jobs. They cut regulation. There are a lot of bullish things in the pipeline, but they take time to implement . . . and take effect. In the meantime, we will have a rocky road.”
Rickards still likes gold, silver and other tangible assets such as farm ground and fine art. Rickards contends this is true diversification of your wealth.
harveyorganblog.com 
