GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $1.90 TO $2566.00

SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.09 TO $30.38

Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2562.30

Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.25

Bitcoin morning price:$89,320 UP 1413 DOLLARS.

Bitcoin: afternoon price: $91.068 UP 3161 DOLLARS

Platinum price closing up $4.05 TO $943.05

Palladium price; up $15.75 TO $956.90

END

*CANADIAN GOLD: $3610.31 UP 0.30 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)

*BRITISH GOLD: 2032.55 UP 6.18 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024

*EURO GOLD: 2,423,23 DOWN 3.56 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)

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EXCHANGE;

EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,568.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/14/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 11/18/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED

---

190 H BMO CAPITAL 2
905 C ADM 2

---

TOTAL: 2 2

JPMorgan stopped 0/2

GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 2 NOTICES FOR 200 OZ  0.00622 TONNES

total notices so far: 2554 contracts for 255400 Oz (7.944 tonnes)

FOR  NOV

SILVER NOTICES: 7 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 35,000 OZ/

total number of notices filed so far this month : 887 for 4.405 million oz

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

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GLD/

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL

THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.

WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL  (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:

HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD./

/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

SLV/

WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.09 AT THE SLV

HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY OUT OF THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV//

INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.

CLOSING INVENTORY: 470.553 MILLION OZ

Let us have a look at the data for today

SILVER//OUTLINE

SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2280 CONTRACTS TO 144,947 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.07 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 330 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.07  IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON THURSDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND FINALLY SUCCEEDED SOMEWHAT WITH THEIR CONTINUAL RAIDS..

WE HAD A   HUMONGOUS 1980 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH SMALLER 839 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A FAIR SZIED 330 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY’S COMEX SESSIONS.TODAY ENDS AT 5 THE MEGA HUMONGOUS ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. SIGNALLING THE END OF THE HUGE RAID OPERATION

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST FRIDAY AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX BUT THAT ENDS TODAY..

CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE.  THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS:  1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON THURSDAY NIGHT: A LARGE 839 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE  OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.

WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023//  OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.07) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE HAD A FAIR NET LOSS OF 307 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES. THE NET LOSS IS DEFINITELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE T.A.S. ISSUANCE.

WE HAD A HUGE 1950 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN  INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING RISES TO 4.540 MILLION OZ

// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 4.540 MILLION OZ

WE HAD:

/ HUMONGOUS SIZED COMEX OI LOSS (ALL DUE TO T.A.S. ISSUANCE)//HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) LARGE SIZED NUMBER OF  T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 839 CONTRACTS)/

 I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A SMALL 67 CONTRACTS.

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV

TOTAL CONTRACTS for 11 DAYS, total 16,020 contracts:   OR 80.10 MILLION OZ  (1456 CONTRACTS PER DAY)

TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR:  70.35 MILLION OZ

LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED  IN MILLIONS OF OZ:

MAY 137.83 MILLION

JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ

JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120

SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//

OCT:  94.595 MILLION OZ

NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ

DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ

YEAR 2022:

 JAN 2022-DEC 2022

JAN 2022//  90.460 MILLION OZ

FEB 2022:  72.39 MILLION OZ//

MARCH 2022: 207.140  MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE

APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE

MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//

JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ

JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ

AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ

SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL

OCT.  29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL

NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL

DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL

TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)

JAN 2023///   53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL

FEB: 2023:       100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.

MARCH 2023:  112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE

APRIL  111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)

MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)  

JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH

JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD

SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)

OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ

NOV.  50.050 MILLION OZ 

DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//

TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/

JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//

FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL

MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.

APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)

MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ  //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)

JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)

AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.

SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )

NOV. 80.10 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)

RESULT: WE HAD A HUMONGOUS SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 2280  CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR TINY LOSS OF $0.07 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//THURSDAY.,.  THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE  CONTRACTS: 1950 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH  EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON  AS FORWARDS.  WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF  2.810 MILLION  OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 30,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP TO TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND..

//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 4.540 MILLION OZ 

WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 330 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES WITH OUR LOSS IN  PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A LARGE 839 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE THURSDAY COMEX SESSION THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT AND THAT IS WHAT THEY DID IN A BIG WAY TODAY! THE HUGE TA.S. ISSUANCE DISTORTED THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS AT THE COMEX. NO SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON THURSDAY

/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE LOSS IN PRICE THURSDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.

THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE THURSDAY NIGHT   (839) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.

WE HAD 7 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.035 MILLION OZ

THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.

GOLD//OUTLINE

IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5352 OI CONTRACTS  TO 535,891 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733  AND  PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.

THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: ADDED A REMOVED A HUGE 5315 CONTRACTS//

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE  IN COMEX OI (5392 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED WITH OUR STRONG LOSS OF $12.90 IN PRICE THURSDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.494 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 10.494 TONNES

/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $12.90 LOSS IN PRICE  WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR GAIN OF 1431 OI CONTRACTS (4.451 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 1000 OZ)

E.F.P. ISSUANCE

THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 6783 CONTRACTS:

The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 541,206

IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1431 CONTRACTS  WITH 5892 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 6746 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 1431 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A LARGE SIZED AND CRIMINAL 6182 CONTRACTS ISSUED AND THIS ENDS THE FIFTH DAY IN A ROW FOR A MEGA ISSUANCE OF GREATER THAN 30,000 T.A.S. CONTRACTS. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS GREAT IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS RAID OPERATIONS AND IT ENDS TODAY WITH GOLD’S RISE IN PRICE.

CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES

WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (6783 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 5392 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 1431 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT  ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 1000 OZ QUEUE JUMP 

//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 10.494 TONNES 

 / 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE WITH MUCH SUCCESS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY BUT NOT TODAY. THE T.A.S. ISSUED IS USED TO CONTAIN GOLD’S RISE. WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.

  4)  STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5)  STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///LARGE T.A.S.  ISSUANCE: 6182 T.A.S.CONTRACTS

HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY

NOV

ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV :

TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 75,120 CONTRACTS OF 7,512.000 OZ OR 233.65 TONNES IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6829 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY

TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE  SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS :  THIS MONTH IN 11 TRADING DAY(S) IN  TONNES  233.65 TONNES

TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES

THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS  233.65 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 6.58% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION

ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023

JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)

 FEB  :  171.24 TONNES  ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..

MARCH:.   276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/

APRIL:      189..44 TONNES  ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)

MAY:        250.15 TONNES  (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)

JUNE:      247.54 TONNES (FINAL)

JULY:        188.73 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:   217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.

SEPT          142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_

OCT:           141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)

NOV:           312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP

DEC.           175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//

TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021

JAN:2022   247.25 TONNES //FINAL

FEB:           196.04 TONNES//FINAL

MARCH/2022:  409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.

APRIL:  169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY  LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)

MAY:  247.44 TONNES FINAL//

JUNE: 238.13 TONNES  FINAL

JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD

AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL

SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL

OCT:  177.57  TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)

NOV.  223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)

DEC:  185.59 tonnes // FINAL

TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022

JAN 2023:    228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!

FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL

MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)

APRIL: 197.42 TONNES

MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)

JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

JULY:  151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)

AUGUST:  195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL

SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)

OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.

NOV.   239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,

DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//

TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS  2578 TONNES LAST YEAR

JAN ’24:     291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)

FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES

MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.

APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)

MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.

JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS

JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III) 

AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.

SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.

OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)

NOV: 233.65 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH/MAYBE A RECORD ISSUANCE MONTH//PREVIOUS RECORD ISSUANCE MARCH 2022 OF 409 TONNES.)

SPREADING OPERATIONS

(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS

SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED   AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE  NEW  ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF  GOLD

HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR  GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER

YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST  STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING  ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY.  THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END  OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”

WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS.  ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM.  IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.

The crooks also use the spread in the TAS  account  (trade at settlement).  They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle  of the  front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road.  The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.

First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:

1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A HUMONGOUS SIZED 2280 CONTRACTS OI  TO 144,850 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020).  THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET  IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD  WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER  6 YEARS AGO.  HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023

EFP ISSUANCE 1950 CONTRACTS

OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS  AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:

DEC 1950 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1950 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON.  IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 2280   CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1950 E.FP. ISSUED

WE OBTAIN A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 330 CONTRACTS

THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES  TOTALS 1.650 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR  $0.07 LOSS  IN PRICE  

OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY

1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT

(report Harvey)

b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES

(Peter Schiff)

c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens

ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries

b. Other gold/silver commentaries

c. Commodity commentaries//

d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC

2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//

FRIDAY MORNING THURSDAY  NIGHT

ASIA TRADING/FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 49.11 PTS OR 1,45%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 9.43 PTS OR 0.05%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 107.21 OR 0.28%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.70%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2280 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2362// Oil DOWN TO 67.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.35 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

outline

b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE

3  CHINA
OUTLINE

4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE

6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE

7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE

8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA

XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS

GOLD

 LET US BEGIN:

THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 5392 CONTRACTS TO 535,891 WITH OUR STRONG LOSS IN PRICE OF $12.90 WITH RESPECT TO THURSDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET IN NUMBER LONGS DESPITE THE LOWER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (6746).

THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING YESTERDAY’S LOSS IN PRICE/

THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT 197 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS LIKE YESTERDAY, AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING PRICE OF GOLD

OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD. NOT ONLY THAT BUT GOLD FROM NOVEMBER TO DECEMBER WENT INTO BACKWARDATION INDICATING SCARCITY IN THE FRONT MONTH.

WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING, MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY..

THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD

EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE

WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.…  THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A  STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,

THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 6783 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: :  /DEC  6783 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:

TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 6783 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.

ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 1431 CONTRACTS IN THAT 6783 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 5392 COMEX  CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN  ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE OF $12.90 THURSDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED  ABOVE.

AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, A EXTRA STRONG SIZED 6182 CONTRACTS,  WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS  WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). AS PROMISED THIS ENDED THE FIFTH CONSECUTIVE 30,000 + DAY ISSUANCE OF T.A.S BY THE CROOKS.

THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD WHICH  OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND ESPECIALLY WITH THIS WEEK’S CONTINUOUS RAIDS.

// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING:   NOV (10.494 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.

HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:

DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES

NOV.  8.074 TONNES

OCT.    57.707 TONNES

SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES

AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES

JULY 7.2814 TONNES

JUNE:  72.289 TONNES

MAY 5.77 TONNES

APRIL  95.331 TONNES

MARCH 30.205 TONNES

FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES

JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.

TOTAL  YEAR  2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES

YEAR 2022:

JANUARY 2022  17.79 TONNES

FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES

MARCH: 36.678 TONNES

APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.

MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL

JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL

JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL

AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL

SEPT.  38.1158 TONNES

OCT:  77.390 TONNES/ FINAL

NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL

Dec. 64.000 tonnes

(TOTAL  YEAR 656.076 TONNES)

2023:

JAN/2023:    20.559 tonnes

FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes

MAR:  19.0637 TONNES

APRIL: 75.676  tonnes

MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk =  20.338

JUNE: 64.354 TONNES

JULY: 10.2861 TONNES

AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)

SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL

OCT.    35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes

NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK   = 34.9627 TONNES

DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK =  51.707 TONNES

TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES

2024

JAN ’24.      22.706 TONNES

FEB. ’24:  66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)

MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES

APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL

MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/PRIOR= 11.9325

JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022

JULY: 11.692 TONNES

AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING

SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.

OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK PRIOR =60.391 TONNES

NOV . 10.494 TONNES

THE SPECS/HFT WERE SUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT FELL BY $12.90/)//BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES. WE DID HAVE HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND AGAIN TODAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN FULL FORCE. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL THURSDAY EVENING

WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 4.451 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL  GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD SIZED QUEUE JUMP OF 10 CONTRACTS OR 1000 OZ (0.0311 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD. MOSTLY LIKELY THIS IS THE FRBNY DESPERATELY TRYING TO EXTINGUISH ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL SHORT FALL OF 93 TONNES

//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 10.494 TONNES

NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 10.494 TONNES (WHICH FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)

ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE  TO THE TUNE OF $12.90

WE HAD 5,315 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE  COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.

NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 1431 CONTRACTS OR 143,100 OZ (4.451 TONNES)

confirmed volume THURSDAY 314,507 contracts STRONG //// t.a.s. enhanced

//speculators have left the gold arena

END

NOV 15 NOV  GOLD CONTRACT

/ /// THE NOV 2024 GOLD CONTRACT

Gold	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz	nil
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz	NIL           .
Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz	NIL
Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz	81,985.05 OZ BRINKS 2550 KILOBARS 400.835 oz JPMorgan 1 London good delivery bar total 82,385.835 oz
No of oz served (contracts) today	2 notice(s) 200 OZ 0.00622 TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)	820 contracts    82,000 OZ 2.550 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month	2554 notices 255,400oz 7.944 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month	x

dealer deposits: 0

total dealer deposits:  nil oz

we have 1 customer deposits

into Brinks 81,985.05 oz (2550 kilobars)

into JPMorgan enhanced (from London)

1 good London delivery bar: 400.835 oz

total deposits 82,385.835 oz 

withdrawals: 1

i) Out of London/JPMorgan enhanced: 11,854.570 oz

or 29 London good delivery bars leaves London England vaults

TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 11,854.570 oz

adjustments: 3

a) customer to dealer brinks: 157,592.410 oz

b)Loomis dealer to customer: 65,973,852 oz 2052 kilobars.

c) Malca dealer to customer: 117,972.019 3669 kilobars

CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.

For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 822 contracts having GAINED 6 contracts. We had 4 contracts served on THURSDAY so we gained 10 contract as these guys underwent a GOOD SIZED queue jump of 1000 oz (0.0311 TONNES OF GOLD)

DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 13,816 CONTRACTS TO 252,381

JANUARY GAINED 83 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 434

FEBRUARY GAINED 5579 CONTRACTS TO 205,705 .

We had 2 contracts filed for today representing 200 oz  

This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.

Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 2 contract(s) of which 0  notices were stopped (received) by  j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped  (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account   

To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2554 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of  NOV(822 CONTRACTS)  minus the number of notices served upon today  (2 x 100 oz per contract( equals  337400 OZ  OR 10.494 TONNES.

thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month:  No of notices filed so far (2554 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV  (XXX OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (2 x 100 oz which equals  337,400 oz (10.494 TONNES)  +

TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 10.494 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS  NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR. 

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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION

NEW PLEDGED GOLD:

241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC  5.94 TONNES

204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED  MANFRA 3.08 TONNES

83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1  1.690 tonnes

265,999.054, oz  JPM No 2 

1,152,376.639 oz pledged  Brinks/

Manfra:  33,758.550 oz

Delaware: 193.721 oz

International Delaware::  11,188.542 oz

total pledged gold: 1,630,255.223  oz 50.71 tonnes

TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD:  17,488,407.82 OZ  

TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,803,563.721/// 242.72tonnes). 

TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,684843.921 OZ  

REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,173,208 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 192.01 tonnes //

END

SILVER/COMEX

NOV   15. 2024

INITIAL

//2024// THE NOV 2024  SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL

Silver	Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory	NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory	1,286,856.548oz Delaware Loomis .
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory	nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory	nil oz
No of oz served today (contracts)	7 CONTRACT(S)    (35,000 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)	27 contracts  (135,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)	881 Contracts  (4.405 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month	NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month

i)  0 dealer  deposit/

total dealer deposit : NIL oz

i) We had  0 dealer withdrawal

total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz

We had  0 customer deposit

total customer deposits nil oz

We had 2 withdrawals

i) Out of Delaware 1007.700 oz

ii) Out of Loomis 1,208,843/94- oz

total withdrawal 1,286,856.848 oz

JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/310.038million  or 43,35%

adjustment 0

TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.457MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 310.038 million oz

CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV

silver open interest data:

FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 34 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 2 CONTRACTS

WE HAD 4 NOTICES FILED ON THURDAY SO WE GAINED 6 CONTRACTS OR 30,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY DECIDED TO LOOK FOR SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.

DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 5986 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 66,390 CONTRACTS

JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 88 CONTRACTS UP TO 1204

.

TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 7 for 0.035 MILLION oz

CONFIRMED volume; ON THURSDAY 89,605 huge// t.a.s. enhanced

To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 881x 5,000 oz = 4.405 MILLION oz 

to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (34) and the number of notices served upon today (7)x (5000 oz)

Thus the  standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month:  881 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(34) number of notices served upon today minus (7)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.540 MILLION OZ. 

 New total standing: 4.540 million oz.

There are 69.457 million oz of registered silver.

The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.

Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon

END

BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!

GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//

GLD

NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES

NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES

NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES

NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE

NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES

NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES

NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES

NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES

OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES

OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES

OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES

OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES

OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES

 OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES

OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES

OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES

OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES

OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES

OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES

GLD INVENTORY: 867.37 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL

SILVER

NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ

NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ

NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ

NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ

NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ

NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ

NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ

NOV 4  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ

NOV 1  WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ

OCT 31  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ

OCT 30  WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 29  WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ

OCT 28  WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ

OCT 25  WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ

OCT 24  WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ

OCT 23  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ

 OCT 22  WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ

OCT 18  WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 17  WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ

OCT 16  WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 15  WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ

OCT 11  WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ

OCT 9  WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ

OCT 8  WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ

 OCT 7  WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ

OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ

CLOSING INVENTORY 470.553 MILLION OZ//

PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES

1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY

Schiff: Powell Can’t Address Stagflation

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 07:20 AM

Via SchiffGold.com,

Peter caps off a very newsworthy week, in which the decisive Trump victory shocked the media class and another Fed rate cut was announced. Peter analyzes both events, arguing against the unbridled economic optimism of Trump’s supporters and criticizing Jerome Powell’s stance on Fed independence and his alarming lack of concern for a future of stagflation.

Peter starts by highlighting the inconvenient trade-off between taxes and government spending. Trump promises new tax cuts, but these will need to be offset by spending cuts, lest the national debt balloons even further out of control:

Trump would have to maybe have a fireside chat in front of the American public and level with them.

He can say, when I was running for president, I promised a lot of things.

I promised a lot of tax cuts… we really need higher taxes if we can’t get some serious cuts in spending.

And so that’s what we’re going to try. I’m going to ask Americans to pitch in and tighten their belts.

While both the Republicans and Democrats like to take credit for for the country’s economic growth, the reality is that much of this “growth” is an artificial boom induced and sustained by decades of expansionary monetary policy by the Federal Reserve:

The problem was we didn’t have a strong economy. We had a bubble. We had a fragile economy.

In fact, we’ve been blowing a bubble in this economy ever since the 1990s. Greenspan is the architect of this house of cards.

He’s been blowing all the air in and every president going back to Clinton has been hiding behind his bubble and has been taking credit for the fake economic growth that has been a consequence of this ever-expanding bubble.

With the stock market lifted by Trump’s success, Peter argues the best time to switch into US equities is when the aforementioned bubble pops. It’ll be painful in the short-term, but that’s when stocks will be a bargain:

The time to load the boat with US stocks is not when they’re historically expensive. I’m waiting for blood in the streets. I want the collapse to happen…

Now, I know when we initially do that and the economy is in recession and everybody is pessimistic, that’s when I’m going to be optimistic, because I’m going to know that this is the bitter tasting medicine that we should have swallowed a long time ago.

Pivoting to the Fed rate cut, Peter points out that the Fed may have cut rates by less than they would have had Kamala Harris been elected instead of Donald Trump:

You would assume that if we’re going to have a stronger economy, the Fed should reconsider the rate cuts, maybe even pause or hike rates.

I thought, well, there’s no chance the Fed’s going to do that. Trump would go ballistic—they’re going to cut. And that’s exactly what they did.

One reason the dollar has been so strong is that people are thinking, well, maybe the Fed won’t cut as much now that we’re expecting a stronger economy.

Peter takes aim at Jerome Powell’s political cowardice, in which he uses the Fed’s independence as an excuse to avoid criticizing bad fiscal policy:

Being independent doesn’t mean you have to keep your mouth shut and you can’t speak your mind and you can’t be critical.

It actually means the opposite of it.

When you’re independent, you’re not influenced by politicians, so you could say whatever the hell you want to say.

You can criticize whoever you want to criticize, and that is exactly what his job is.

At Thursday’s Fed press conference, Powell dodged a question about the possibility of stagflation. Peter sees this as a major gaffe:

He [Powell] kind of says, “Well, our plan for stagflation is to hope there is no stagflation.”

Then he laughed, realizing how ridiculous that sounded.

I mean, what kind of plan is that? Your plan is to hope it doesn’t happen. .. Because obviously, it’s possible.

So, what are you going to do? That’s the question, not what you hope will happen. What’s your plan?

They’ve got no plan. That’s why they hope it doesn’t happen.

But, you know, Murphy has a law, right?

Anything that can go wrong will go wrong. We’re going to have stagflation.

Donald Trump’s has likely halted economic progressivism from corrupting the White House, but with the debt still expanding and the Federal Reserve still setting price controls on interest rates, the economy is far from healthy.

2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:

3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES

Gold and silver hit by massive dollar rally

The return of the carry trade is creating a dollar illusion. But rising US Treasury yields are threatening to destabilise the entire global credit system, ultimately for the benefit of physical gold.

Alasdair MacleodNov 14∙Paid

READ IN APP

Against a background of a soaring dollar, gold and silver suffered a predictable shakeout. Yesterday (Thursday), gold closed at $2567 after dipping below $2540, for a net fall from last Friday’s close of $121, down $222 from 30 October’s high. Silver closed yesterday at $30.46 after an intraday low at $29.76, down a net 116 cents and off $4.40 from its 22 October high.

The sharpness and rapidity of these falls suggests that a decent technical bounce on bear closing in both gold and silver is in prospect for today. But it would be too early to say with conviction that Thursday’s lows represent the end of their correction.

But where do we go from here?

Driving gold and silver’s decline has been the remarkable rally in the dollar. The next chart shows its trade-weighted index:

Far from reflecting a sudden appetite for dollars from foreign investors, US hedge funds and others have returned to the carry trade, which involves borrowing yen cheaply (and perhaps to a lesser extent euros), selling them to buy dollars and investing in T-bills for the yield pick-up. Other than the profits to be made from the interest rate arbitrage, the logic can be summed up as Trump and his tariffs will do less harm for America than to everyone else. And the domestic inflationary implications will keep short-term US bond yields high while Japan and the Eurozone resist the trend for fear of the consequences on their own economies.

However, there appears to be some confusion over the US inflation outlook, with the probability of a cut in the Fed funds rate of 0.25% next month currently assessed at 79%. But with the impact of the new president’s intended tariffs leading to higher consumer price inflation, it makes more sense for the Fed to put rate cuts on hold until the tariff position is clarified. And yields on the Treasury 10-year note are rising strongly, confirming there is too much optimism for lower interest rates:

The reality is that the marginal buyers, being foreign holders of US Treasuries in aggregate, are unlikely to buy more for economic or political reasons. Instead, foreign central banks and governments outside the western alliance are selling down dollars and dollar debt for gold. And foreign private sector institutions are suffering greater losses on term debt as yields rise. In the absence of this foreign support, the yield on the 10-year UST-note is set to rise above 5%, not only tripping debt traps for the US Government, but for Japan, the Eurozone, the UK, and all the zombie corporations in these jurisdictions who less than two or three years ago thought that interest rates would never rise again.

In short, while US hedge funds party on the proceeds of the carry trade, already we can see how the markets’ reactions to Trump’s landslide are creating potential chaos elsewhere. As an example, look at the problems for Japan:

The yen is declining and undoubtedly will hit new lows, while bond yields are on the rise. Time is being called on the Bank of Japan’s monetary stance. On Wednesday, the BOJ revealed that the producer price index for October rose 3.4% compared with a year ago: compare that with the yen’s close to zero short-term interest rates. Trump’s election has since made things considerably worse for Japan’s monetary policy, and possibly threatens the very survival of the BOJ, which desperately needs a massive recapitalisation to retain its ebbing credibility.

Japan is only one example. Having come to rely on an outlook for lower dollar interest rates, the Eurozone and UK face their own crises. Far from improving the dollar’s prospects as a fiat currency, current events are destabilising the entire fiat currency world. They confirm the thesis that the entire gold-less period since the end of Bretton Woods is running out of road — and rapidly at that. I shall end this report with gold’s technical chart:

Clearly, the correction from $2790 has taken much of the short-term froth out of gold, and it is in a stronger technical position for it. It has been an opportunity for foreign central banks frightened for the dollar’s future, and even more so following the presidential election, to redouble their efforts to acquire physical bullion, for which there is no counterparty risk.

And if they are rejecting fiat for bullion, then surely tells us all we need to know.

4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 199 ANDREW MAGUIRE

LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 199

5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: ALUMINA

.

6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS

END

ASIA TRADING FRIDAY MORNING/THURSDAY  NIGHT

SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 49.11 PTS OR 1,45%

//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 9.43 PTS OR 0.05%

// Nikkei CLOSED UP 107.21 OR 0.28%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.70%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2280 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2362// Oil DOWN TO 67.93 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 71.35 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN

ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN  TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER

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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING.7:30 AM

ONSHORE YUAN:   CLOSED UP AT 7.2280

OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2362

SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 49.11 PTS OR 1.45%

HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 9.71 PTS OR 0.05%

2. Nikkei closed UP 107.21 PTS OR 0.28%

3. Europe stocks   SO FAR:  ALL GREEN

USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO  106.42 EURO RISES TO 1.0573 UP 44 BASIS PTS

3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.062 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 155.31…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA

3c Nikkei now  ABOVE 17,000

3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning

3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP

3f Japan is to buy INFINITE  TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA

Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.

3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning

3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3418 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.530 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.037

3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.194

3j Gold at $2570.45 /Silver at: 30.68  1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40

3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 24/100  roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 99.82

3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and  71 handle for Brent/

3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China//  huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/

JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 155.31  10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.062% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.

30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8879 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF:   0.9387  well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.

USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.435 UP 1 BASIS PTS…

USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.590 UP 1 BASIS PTS/

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD:  4.320 UP 3 BASIS PTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.42…

10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.529 DOWN 5 PTS

10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.3297 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS

5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.140 DOWN 3 PTS.

2a New York OPENING REPORT

Futures Slide After Hawkish Powell Trims Rate Cut Odds

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 08:19 AM

US equity futures drop, and global stocks slide after Fed chair Jerome Powell signaled the Federal Reserve was in no rush to cut interest rates, and unease built over the composition of Donald Trump’s cabinet. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were down 0.5%, off session lows; and pointing to a second day of declines; Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.9% with Mag 7 mostly lower: AAPL, MSFT and META are all 1.0% lower. Drugmakers Moderna, Novavax and BioNTech all slid in New York premarket trading after Trump picked vaccine-skeptic RFK Jr, as his Health secretary. Domino’s Pizza Inc. was among the prominent gainers, after Buffett took a small stake in the restaurant chain. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.3%, on track for its fourth weekly drop, with pharma sector among the biggest laggards, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7%, snapping a five-day loss. Bond yields are modestly lower, and the USD retreated, trimming its weekly gain, as some market participants took profit before key data later on Friday and ahead of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers despite Powell’s clearly hawkish comments. Commodities are mixed, with oil flat, reversing an earlier loss of -1.4%; base metals are lower, while precious metals rise.

Today, we will receive a slew of growth data: more clarity on the Fed’s path may emerge Friday, with retail sales data due and a host of Fed officials set to speak. Bank of America real-time credit and debit card data suggest a big miss in today’s retail sales print. We also get the October Industrial Production data.

In pre-market trading, Moderna and other vaccine makers fell in premarket trading after President-elect Donald Trump said he was tapping vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Moderna -2%, Novavax (NVAX) -1%. Domino’s Pizza rose 6% after Berkshire Hathaway bought stock in the pizza chain as Chairman Warren Buffett cut back on some long-held investments. Here are some other notable movers:

• Alibaba ADRS (BABA) rises 3% as a profit beat offset revenue that came in below analyst estimates.
• Applied Materials (AMAT) drops 8% after the semiconductor capital equipment company gave an outlook that raised concerns over chip spending.
• Despegar.com (DESP) rises 13% after the online travel booking services company reported third-quarter revenue that beat estimates.
• Palantir (PLTR) gains 2% after the AI software maker said it was transfering its stock listing to Nasdaq from NYSE.

The S&P has now given up about a third of the trough-to-peak gains notched after the US presidential election, as some of the optimism over corporate growth under Trump fades. There’s also realization that interest rates will fall less quickly than anticipated, with recent data showing still-elevated inflation pressures and Powell confirming the Fed may take its time easing policy.

“Equity markets seem to be adjusting to the new rate cut trajectory but it doesn’t seem to be a game changer,” said Mathieu Racheter, head of equity strategy at Julius Baer Group Ltd. “Some controversial cabinet announcements obviously do not help the market.”

Powell’s remarks have pushed odds on a December rate cut to less than 60% from roughly 80% a day earlier. Yields on two-year Treasuries steadied after jumping in the previous session in response. The higher-for-longer rates view is supportive for the dollar, however. The greenback stayed below two-year highs hit on Thursday, but is set for its seventh straight weekly gain. More clarity on the Fed’s path could emerge later Friday, as the US releases retail sales data and a host of Fed officials are set to speak.  

In Europe the Stoxx 600 index slipped 0.3%, on track for its fourth weekly drop, with pharma sector among the biggest laggards, after Trump named RFK Jr to the top health-policy role. Vaccine makers Sanofi, GSK Plc and AstraZeneca Plc fell after the news. Generali and Aegon are both among the biggest gainers, both on their respective solid earnings. Here are the biggest movers Friday:

• Generali advance as much as 5.7%, the best performing stock on the Stoxx 600 Insurance Index, after the Italian insurer beat profit estimates and analysts said it’s on track to meet targets
• Aegon shares rise as much as 4.1% to hit their highest level since May, after the financial services and insurance company lifted its operating-capital generation guidance for the full year
• Evotec surges as much as 23% after the German drug developer received a non-binding proposal from Halozyme Therapeutics to acquire the company for €11 per share, valuing the firm at €2b
• Continental shares rise as much as 3% to their highest intraday value since June as UBS says the planned spinoff of the German car parts firm’s automotive division looks increasingly likely
• Land Securities shares rise as much as 3% after the property investment firm upgraded its guidance. Shore Capital noted management is more confident about an improvement in rental growth
• TT Electronics jumps as much as 39%, the biggest gain in four years, after rejecting takeover proposals tabled by fellow London-listed firm Volex, which has slumped as much as 11% this morning
• InterContinental Hotels edge up as much as 1.1%, hitting a new record-high, after analysts at Barclays upgraded the stock and said they now prefer the hotelier over its rival Whitbread
• European vaccine makers trade lower on Friday, weighing on the broader healthcare sector, after US President-elect Donald Trump said he’s tapping Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to run the Department of Health and Human Services
• Cargotec falls as much as 9.5% after the Helsinki-listed company signed an agreement to sell its MacGregor business to funds managed by Triton for an enterprise value of €480m

Earlier, in Asia the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed as much as 0.7%, snapping a five-day loss. Samsung Electronics provided the biggest boost as the South Korean chipmaker rose the most in four years. Mizuho Financial Group and Toyota Motor were among the other notable contributors to the advance. China’s CSI 300 Index dropped despite signs of resilience in the nation’s economy as concerns over a deepening rift with the US outweighed signs of economic stabilization. “Concerns over the Trump administration continue to suppress market risk appetite,” said Ken Chen, an analyst at KGI Securities, referring to Chinese equities. “In addition, some investors interpreted authorities’ appeal to build a slow bull market as an intention to cool down the rally, so they chose to take profit when they can.”

The dollar retreated, trimming its weekly gain, as some market participants took profit before key data later on Friday and ahead of speeches from Federal Reserve policymakers. The market pivoted from Trump trades to the Fed’s cautious tone on interest-rate cuts. Traders pared back December Fed rate-cut odds after Chair Powell’s remarks on economic resilience, stabilizing Treasury yields after Thursday’s swings. The yen outperformed G-10 FX near 155.20/USD on intervention speculation.

In rates, treasuries are mixed with front-end outperforming, recouping some of the losses from late Thursday after comments by Powell curbed wagers on a December rate cut. The yield curve is steeper, likewise reversing part of the flattening reaction to Powell. Front-end yields are richer by more than 3bp with 30-year slightly cheaper on the day; 2s10s and 5s30s curves are nearly 3bp steeper near session wides, erasing about half of Thursday’s flattening. Two-year USTs outperform comparable bunds and gilts, with US yields down 2bps to 4.32%; the US 10-year is little changed around 4.43%, Germany’s also little changed while UK 10-year yield is ~1bp lower on the day. Friday’s US session includes four Fed speakers and retail sales data.  

In commodities, oil and gold headed for a weekly drop, weighed down by the stronger dollar. WTI crude drops 1.1% to $67.94, gold steadies at $2,566/oz.

Another of the so-called Trump trades, Bitcoin, also gave up some gains. It hit a record $93,000 level earlier this week on hopes of crypto-friendly policies from the new US administration, but has since dipped back to $87,000.  “Much of the good news is already priced into Bitcoin. What the market needs now are concrete political steps from the Trump administration,” said Jochen Stanzl, Chief Market Analyst at CMC Markets. “Otherwise, as with many US equities, a cooling-off is overdue for this ‘Trump trade’ as well.”

Looking at today’s US economic data calendar we get November Empire manufacturing, October retail sales and import/export price indexes (8:30am New York time), October industrial production (9:15am) and September business inventories (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Goolsbee (8:30am, 2:05pm), Collins (9am, 10:30am), Williams (1:15pm) and Barkin (3pm)

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 5,940.50
• MXAP up 0.4% to 182.01
• MXAPJ up 0.2% to 575.59
• Nikkei up 0.3% to 38,642.91
• Topix up 0.4% to 2,711.64
• Hang Seng Index little changed at 19,426.34
• Shanghai Composite down 1.5% to 3,330.73
• Sensex down 0.1% to 77,580.31
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.7% to 8,285.15
• Kospi little changed at 2,416.86
• STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 504.95
• German 10Y yield little changed at 2.35%
• Euro up 0.4% to $1.0571
• Brent Futures down 1.1% to $71.79/bbl
• Gold spot up 0.0% to $2,565.78
• US Dollar Index down 0.13% to 106.53

Top Overnight News

• US President-elect Trump picked RFK Jr to be Health and Human Services Secretary and said North Dakota Governor Burgum will be the Interior Secretary. It was separately reported that a US private funds group asked Trump to review harmful rules, preserve pro-growth taxes and promote alternative assets: Reuters.
• China’s October economic data was mixed, with solid retail sales (+4.8% Y/Y, about 100bp ahead of the Street’s +3.8% forecast and up from +3.2% in Sept) but soft industrial production (+5.3% vs. the Street +5.6%) and continued pressure in real estate. Reuters
• Japan’s Q3 GDP slowed vs. Q3, but it still came in ahead of expectations while consumption rebounded, keeping the BOJ on track to continue tightening policy. WSJ
• Kazuo Ueda will speak on Monday in what may be his last major scheduled speech before next month’s BOJ meeting. The head of one of Japan’s largest labor unions said workers need to see consistent gains in real wages for the BOJ to continue raising interest rates. BBG
• Musk met with Iran’s UN Ambassador and discussed ways for Tehran and Washington to defuse tensions. NYT
• The UK economy cooled by more than expected last quarter, with most industries experiencing subdued growth amid growing concerns over Labour’s first budget. In September, GDP shrank 0.1% — consensus was for 0.2% growth. BBG
• The euro area’s GDP will increase by 1.3% next year and 1.6% in 2026, the European Commission said. That’s slightly stronger than what the IMF predicted last month and notably higher than the 0.8% seen by officials for 2024. BBG
• Senate Republicans are skeptical of Donald Trump’s aggressive new tariff plans — especially lawmakers from states with large agriculture industries that could bear the brunt of likely foreign retaliation. Politico
• Franklin Resources will begin taking over parts of its Western Asset Mgmt. and cutting costs following a recent exodus of assets. BBG
• Gold’s decline may continue on momentum-driving sales before bottoming, MLIV said. CTAs could sell an additional 15% of their holdings in the coming sessions, TD Securities said. Gold ticked up on the day. BBG
• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) says a December rate cut is “certainly on the table but is not a done deal”, according to WSJ. Expects lower rates will be warranted. Says Fed policy is restrictive. Does not see signs of new price pressures. There will be more data between now and December meeting.
• US Treasury’s semi-annual currency report found no major US trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through June 2024 as no major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during the review period. However, the monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’ includes China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and Germany.

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias albeit with gains capped following the uninspiring handover from Wall Street and as participants digested recent earnings releases and mixed Chinese activity data. ASX 200 was led by outperformance in Utilities and with gains in nearly all sectors aside from Healthcare amid headwinds for the latter following pressure in the industry stateside after US President-elect Trump picked vaccine sceptic RFK Jr as HHS Secretary. Nikkei 225 rallied on the back of recent currency weakness and with outperformance seen in some financial names after Japanese megabanks’ earnings results, while GDP data was mostly either inline or better than expected. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp ultimately gained but saw mixed price action throughout the day after various data releases in which Industrial Production disappointed but Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Chinese Home Prices showed a steeper Y/Y drop although the M/M decline moderated. Participants also digested tech earnings and the PBoC’s largest daily liquidity injection via reverse repos in over four years which is meant to counteract factors including maturing MLF loans and tax payments.

Top Asian news

• China’s Finance Ministry will reduce export tax rebate rate for refined oil products, photovoltaics, batteries, and select non-metallic mineral products from 13-9% from Dec 2024. Will cancel the export tax rebate for aluminium and copper products, and chemically modified animal, plant, or microbial oils and fats.
• Alibaba (BABA/ 9988 HK) reportedly mulling offering USD 5bln in bonds.
• China’s MOFCOM is releasing a dual-use item export control list, which will be effective from December 1st; does not involve adj. to specific scope of export control.
• Hong Kong revises 2024 GDP forecast to 2.5% (prev. forecast at 2.5-3.0%)
• PBoC injected CNY 981bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.50% which was the largest daily cash injection through reverse repos since February 2020, while it stated that Friday’s cash injection through reverse repos was meant to counteract factors including maturing MLF loans and tax payments.
• China’s stats bureau said domestic demand is still insufficient but noted major economic indicators recovered ‘markedly’ in October and China’s consumer expectations improved, while they will consolidate the trend in economic recovery, step up policy adjustments and expand domestic demand. Furthermore, it stated that recent policies have shown positive effects on the economy and it is increasingly confident of achieving the 2024 economic growth target but noted that consumption growth still faces some constraints.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they will take appropriate action against excessive FX moves, while he added that one-sided, sharp moves were seen in the FX market and it is important for FX rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals.

European bourses began the session on a mostly lower footing, in a continuation of the losses seen on Wall St. in the prior session; a paring of the strength seen in Europe on Thursday may also be at play. Since the cash open, sentiment gradually improved, but indices now display a mixed picture in Europe. European sectors are mixed vs initially opening with a strong negative bias. Energy is towards the top of the pile, with Banks and Insurance following just behind. Healthcare is by far the clear underperformer, with several heavyweights within the sector seeing notable downside after US President-elect Trump picked vaccine sceptic RFK Jr as HHS Secretary. US equity futures are entirely in the red, with slight underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, in a continuation of the negative price action seen in the prior session; which was ultimately sparked by a hawkish-leaning Powell. US finalises USD 6.6bln chips subsidy award for TSMC, according to the US Commerce Department.

Top European news

• European Commissions sees EZ economic growth at 0.8% in 2024, 1.35% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026. Sees EZ inflation at 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026. Sees German GDP to expand by 0.7% in 2025 (prev. forecast 1.0%). GDP growth expected to accelerate to 1.3% in 2026 (remains below EZ avg. of 1.6%). German economy contract 0.1% this year vs 0.1% growth in spring forecast.
• Germany’s SPD leader says they do not need to wait for a new gov’t to begin debt brake reform, willingness to reform from the opposition leader is a good starting point, via Handelsblatt.

FX

• DXY is pulling back after another surge on Thursday which saw a high of 107.07, with hawkish Powell keeping the buck afloat in late hours. Ahead, US retail sales and a number of Fed speakers. Comments from Fed’s Collins who noted that a December rate cut is “certainly on the table but is not a done deal”, had little impact on the index.
• EUR is benefitting from a softer Dollar and seeing a rebound from yesterday’s worst levels (1.0496 low) as the pair attempts to climb back to yesterday’s best (1.0582).
• GBP is relatively flat and unable to benefit from the pullback in the Dollar following downbeat GDP data across the board.
• JPY is the G10 outperformer after a week of underperformance with desks citing pre-weekend profit-taking, whilst Japanese GDP data mostly matched or topped estimates. USD/JPY overnight hit a fresh weekly high of 156.74 before pulling back to a current 155.40 low.
• Antipodeans are modestly firmer as DXY pulls back from its weekly highs, in turn offering some reprieve to peers alongside the base metals complex.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1992 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1966).
• Indonesia’s Central Bank says it has conducted “triple intervention” within the FX market to maintain market confidence.

Fixed Income

• USTs are under slight pressure as markets continue to digest the hawkish tone from Powell. As it stands, USTs have climbed above the overnight low at 109-06, and currently sits below its session high at 109-16+. Yields are currently firmer across the curve with the short-end leading after the Fed Chair. US Retail Sales and Fed speak is due.
• Bunds spent first part of the morning with a very slight negative bias, in-fitting with USTs. Benchmarks seemingly derived some support most recently from the latest Commission forecasts. EZ-specific updates have been fairly limited, but the docket ahead sees Lane, Cipollone & Panetta.
• Gilts are the modest outperformer as the morning’s GDP data serves as a dovish impetus. Though, market pricing hasn’t really changed with just a ~20% chance of a December cut. Up to a 93.89 peak, having surpassed the 93.85 from Thursday but is yet to test the 94.00 mark.
• UK DMO plans to hold three syndicated Gilt sales in the January-March 2025 period; intends to sell a new 10yr Gilt and 20-25yr I/L syndication in February and March.

Commodities

• Crude is lower across the board heading into the end of the week amid efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon whilst Iran attempts to cool tensions with the US. Brent Jan also trades towards the lower end of its USD 71.33-72.39/bbl range.
• Mixed trade across precious metals this morning despite the substantial pullback in the Dollar, with some potential tailwinds emanating from attempts to cool geopolitical tensions amid efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon whilst Iran attempts to cool tensions with the US. Spot gold yesterday briefly dipped under its 100 DMA (2,545.21/oz) to a USD 2,536.71/oz low.
• Mixed trade across base metals with a positive bias in recent trade as prices recover alongside the pullback in the Dollar. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 9,000/t in a current USD 8,997.50-9,077.50/t range. Copper caught a slight bid following news that China’s Finance Ministry will cancel the export tax rebate for aluminium and copper products.

Geopolitics: Middle East

• The Senior Advisor to Iran’s Khamenei says “we support any ceasefire decision taken by the Lebanese government and resistance”.
• Israeli source says Hezbollah’s response to the American outline is expected “within days”, according to Kann News.
• Iran provided written assurances to the US administration in October that it was not seeking to kill Presidential contender Trump, via WSJ citing a US official; assurances which were intended to cool tensions between the US and Iran.
• Iran is preparing for Operation Sincere Promise 3 to respond to the Israeli attack, according to Sky News Arabia citing a Member of the Expediency in Iran.
• Israeli army issues new warnings to evacuate buildings in Burj al-Barajneh and Ghobeiry in the southern suburb of Beirut, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon in a widening war campaign, while the expanding ground operation risks protracted conflict but could build leverage for ceasefire talks, according to WSJ.
• Hezbollah said it targeted a military base in Israel’s Tel Aviv and targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy forces in the Kiryat Shmona settlement with a barrage of rockets, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Elon Musk and Iran’s ambassador reportedly discussed how to ease US and Iran tensions, according to NYT. Iran’s ambassador told Musk during the meeting on Monday that sanctions waivers should be obtained from the Treasury Department, while Iranian sources said the meeting was positive, according to Al Arabiya.

Geopolitics: Other

• US President-elect Trump said they will avoid what happened before with their military in Afghanistan and will deal with the situation in Ukraine better, as well as work to reach a solution to the crisis.
• US President Biden administration official said the US must be prepared to expand its nuclear weapons force, while the decision on expanding US nuclear force will be left to President-elect Trump, according to WSJ.
• US and UK brought into force an amendment to the 1958 agreement between the two countries for cooperation in the uses of atomic energy in defence which will make the agreement enduring in its entirety, according to the US State Department.
• North Korean leader Kim guided a test of attack drones and ordered the mass production of suicide drones.
• Taiwan President Lai is planning to stop in Hawaii and maybe Guam during a visit to Pacific allies in the coming weeks, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• China’s Coast Guard said with China’s permission, the Philippines sent a civilian ship to transport supplies to its ‘illegally’ beached warship at the Second Thomas Shoal.
• The US plans additional sanctions to restrict Russia’s energy trade, plans to prohibit banks from dealing with Gazprombank, according to Nikkei.

US Event Calendar

• 08:30: Oct. Retail Sales Advance MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.4%
  • Oct. Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.5%
  • Oct. Retail Sales Control Group, est. 0.3%, prior 0.7%
• 08:30: Oct. Import Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.4%
  • Oct. Import Price Index YoY, est. 0.3%, prior -0.1%
  • Oct. Export Price Index MoM, est. -0.1%, prior -0.7%
  • Oct. Export Price Index YoY, est. -1.7%, prior -2.1%
• 08:30: Nov. Empire Manufacturing, est. 0, prior -11.9
• 09:15: Oct. Industrial Production MoM, est. -0.3%, prior -0.3%
  • Oct. Capacity Utilization, est. 77.1%, prior 77.5%
  • Oct. Manufacturing (SIC) Production, est. -0.5%, prior -0.4%
• 10:00: Sept. Business Inventories, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%

Central Bank speakers

• 08:30: Fed’s Goolsbee on CNBC
• 09:00: Fed’s Collins Gives Opening Remarks
• 10:30: Fed’s Collins Appears on Bloomberg TV
• 13:15: Fed’s Williams Gives Opening Remarks

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Risk assets struggled for momentum yesterday, with the S&P 500 (-0.60%) losing ground as investors reflected on some sticky inflation data and increasingly elevated valuations. The initial catalyst for that was the US PPI inflation for October, where the core PPI reading was stronger than expected, which added to fears that inflation could become stuck above the Fed’s target. Then later in the session, that narrative was reinforced by some hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell, which added fresh doubts about the likelihood of a December rate cut. By the close, that meant futures had dialled back the probability of a December cut to 62%, down from more than 82% the previous day. Moreover, those moves have seen further momentum overnight, with the probability of a December cut down to 59% this morning, whilst the 10yr Treasury yield is currently at a 4-month high of 4.46%, and S&P 500 futures (-0.32%) are pointing to further losses.

In terms of Powell’s remarks, he explicitly said that the economy “is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates”, and that its strength “gives us the ability to approach our decisions carefully”. Indeed, yesterday we found out that the weekly initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since May, at 217k. So there was plenty of support for that message of economic strength, and it was a much more hawkish message from Powell relative his Jackson Hole speech in August, where he said that the “time has come for policy to adjust”. He also noted that yesterday’s PPI data was stronger than the Fed had pencilled in, seeing the data as consistent with a +2.8% yoy core PCE print.

Whilst the PPI data wasn’t that alarming by the standards of the high inflation of 2022-23, the problem was it showed inflation remaining stubbornly above levels consistent with the Fed’s target. For instance, the core PPI reading was at +0.3% (vs. +0.2% expected), which pushed up the year-on-year measure to +3.1% (vs. +3.0% expected). Moreover, that comes on the back of core CPI staying at +0.3% for a third month running, so the concern is that inflation is getting stuck at those levels. Now it’s worth noting that the Fed officially target the PCE measure of inflation, rather than the CPI or PPI measures, and we don’t get the PCE numbers until the end of the month. But we know several categories from the PPI release feed into the PCE, and those were on the stronger side, with sizeable increases in airfares and portfolio management prices. So one to look out for when the October PCE is released on November 27.

Against that backdrop, there were growing signs that investors were becoming more concerned about inflation. For instance, the US 2yr inflation swap up +0.7bps on the day to 2.63%, which is its highest in almost six months. In turn, that led to a notable rise in front-end Treasury yields, with the 2yr yield (+5.9bps) closing at 4.35%, its highest since July, having been near flat on the day before Powell’s comments. However, yields declined at the long end, with 10yr and 30yr yields -1.5bps and -4.9bps lower, respectively. So in some ways it was a mirror image of the curve steepening seen the previous day. One theme that persisted was dollar strength however, and the dollar index (+0.18%) posted a fifth consecutive advance to reach a one-year high.

For US equities, Powell’s comments reinforced what had already been a more challenging day, with the S&P 500 (-0.60%) seeing its largest decline so far this month. The NASDAQ (-0.64%) and the Magnificent 7 (-1.30%) saw sizeable declines, with Rivian (-14.30%) and Tesla (-5.77%) among the worst performers after Reuters reported that president-elect Trump plans to eliminate the consumer tax credit for electric vehicles. The small-cap Russell 2000 (-1.37%) lost ground for a third consecutive day, which marked its worst 3-day run since early August. By contrast in Europe, equities saw a strong rebound from the last couple of days, with the STOXX 600 up +1.08%, alongside gains for the DAX (+1.37%), the CAC 40 (+1.32%) and the FTSE MIB (+1.93%).

On the rates side in Europe, sovereign bond yields saw consistent declines, with those on 10yr bunds (-4.6bps), OATs (-5.6bps) and BTPs (-8.6bps) all moving lower. That also followed the release of the accounts from the ECB’s October meeting, where they delivered another 25bp rate cut. It said that if the slowdown in various indicators were just temporary, then an October rate cut would be like bringing forward a December cut, and so “there was little risk associated with cutting, especially given that interest rates would remain in restrictive territory”.

Overnight in Asia, we’ve had a mixed set of data out of China this morning. On the positive side, retail sales came in stronger than expected, with a +4.8% year-on-year reading in October (vs. +3.8% expected). However, industrial production was a bit weaker than expected at +5.3% year-on-year (v.s +5.6% expected). So Chinese equities have been steady against that backdrop, with the CSI 300 (-0.03%) and the Shanghai Comp (+0.02%) hovering either side of unchanged.

Elsewhere in Asia, we also had Japan’s Q3 GDP data overnight, which was a bit faster than expected with an annualised quarterly gain of +0.9% (vs. +0.7% expected). That’s helped support the Nikkei (+0.87%) to a stronger gain this morning, although it wasn’t all good news in the release, as Q2 growth was revised down to an annualised pace of +2.2% (vs. +2.9% previously). In turn, the Japanese Yen is losing ground for a 5th consecutive day against the US dollar, and this morning is trading at 156.45, which is its weakest level since July.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include US retail sales, industrial production and capacity utilization for October, along with UK GDP for Q3. Central bank speakers include the Fed’s Collins and Williams, and the ECB’s Lane and Cipollone. Lastly, the European Commission will release their latest economic forecasts.

2B) European report.

DXY on the backfoot & crude sells off after constructive ceasefire advancements – Newsquawk US Market Open

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 05:45 AM

• European bourses are mixed vs initially opening entirely in the red; US futures sit in negative territory.
• DXY is on the backfoot and holds around 106.50, JPY outperforms.
• USTs are under pressure in a continuation of the price action seen following a hawkish-leaning Powell; Gilts bid after the UK’s downbeat GDP metrics.
• Crude is in the red, XAU is flat, whilst base metals hold a positive bias alongside the pullback in the Dollar.
• Looking ahead, US Retail Sales, Capacity Utilisation, BoC SLOS, Speakers including ECB’s Lane & Cipollone, Panetta, Fed’s Goolsbee, Collins & Williams, Barkin, Earnings from Alibaba.

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EUROPEAN TRADE

EQUITIES

• European bourses began the session on a mostly lower footing, in a continuation of the losses seen on Wall St. in the prior session; a paring of the strength seen in Europe on Thursday may also be at play. Since the cash open, sentiment gradually improved, but indices now display a mixed picture in Europe.
• European sectors are mixed vs initially opening with a strong negative bias. Energy is towards the top of the pile, with Banks and Insurance following just behind. Healthcare is by far the clear underperformer, with several heavyweights within the sector seeing notable downside after US President-elect Trump picked vaccine sceptic RFK Jr as HHS Secretary.
• US equity futures are entirely in the red, with slight underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ, in a continuation of the negative price action seen in the prior session; which was ultimately sparked by a hawkish-leaning Powell.
• US finalises USD 6.6bln chips subsidy award for TSMC, according to the US Commerce Department.
• Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
• Click for the additional news
• Click for a detailed summary

FX

• DXY is pulling back after another surge on Thursday which saw a high of 107.07, with hawkish Powell keeping the buck afloat in late hours. Ahead, US retail sales and a number of Fed speakers. Comments from Fed’s Collins who noted that a December rate cut is “certainly on the table but is not a done deal”, had little impact on the index.
• EUR is benefitting from a softer Dollar and seeing a rebound from yesterday’s worst levels (1.0496 low) as the pair attempts to climb back to yesterday’s best (1.0582).
• GBP is relatively flat and unable to benefit from the pullback in the Dollar following downbeat GDP data across the board.
• JPY is the G10 outperformer after a week of underperformance with desks citing pre-weekend profit-taking, whilst Japanese GDP data mostly matched or topped estimates. USD/JPY overnight hit a fresh weekly high of 156.74 before pulling back to a current 155.40 low.
• Antipodeans are modestly firmer as DXY pulls back from its weekly highs, in turn offering some reprieve to peers alongside the base metals complex.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1992 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1966).
• Indonesia’s Central Bank says it has conducted “triple intervention” within the FX market to maintain market confidence.
• Click for a detailed summary
• Click for NY OpEx Details

FIXED INCOME

• USTs are under slight pressure as markets continue to digest the hawkish tone from Powell. As it stands, USTs have climbed above the overnight low at 109-06, and currently sits below its session high at 109-16+. Yields are currently firmer across the curve with the short-end leading after the Fed Chair. US Retail Sales and Fed speak is due.
• Bunds spent first part of the morning with a very slight negative bias, in-fitting with USTs. Benchmarks seemingly derived some support most recently from the latest Commission forecasts. EZ-specific updates have been fairly limited, but the docket ahead sees Lane, Cipollone & Panetta.
• Gilts are the modest outperformer as the morning’s GDP data serves as a dovish impetus. Though, market pricing hasn’t really changed with just a ~20% chance of a December cut. Up to a 93.89 peak, having surpassed the 93.85 from Thursday but is yet to test the 94.00 mark.
• UK DMO plans to hold three syndicated Gilt sales in the January-March 2025 period; intends to sell a new 10yr Gilt and 20-25yr I/L syndication in February and March.
• Click for a detailed summary

COMMODITIES

• Crude is lower across the board heading into the end of the week amid efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon whilst Iran attempts to cool tensions with the US. Brent Jan also trades towards the lower end of its USD 71.33-72.39/bbl range.
• Mixed trade across precious metals this morning despite the substantial pullback in the Dollar, with some potential tailwinds emanating from attempts to cool geopolitical tensions amid efforts to reach a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon whilst Iran attempts to cool tensions with the US. Spot gold yesterday briefly dipped under its 100 DMA (2,545.21/oz) to a USD 2,536.71/oz low.
• Mixed trade across base metals with a positive bias in recent trade as prices recover alongside the pullback in the Dollar. 3M LME copper trades on either side of USD 9,000/t in a current USD 8,997.50-9,077.50/t range. Copper caught a slight bid following news that China’s Finance Ministry will cancel the export tax rebate for aluminium and copper products.
• Click for a detailed summary

NOTABLE DATA RECAP

• UK GDP Prelim QQ (Q3) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.5%); YY 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 0.7%)
• UK GDP Estimate MM (Sep) -0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); YY 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.1% (Prev. 1.0%, Rev. 1.1%); 3M/3M (Sep) 0.1% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%)
• French CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Oct) 1.6% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 1.5%); CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%)
• Italian CPI (EU Norm) Final MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.3%); Consumer Prices Final YY (Oct) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.9% (Prev. 0.9%); CPI (EU Norm) Final YY (Oct) 1.0% vs. Exp. 1.0% (Prev. 1.0%)

NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES

• European Commissions sees EZ economic growth at 0.8% in 2024, 1.35% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026. Sees EZ inflation at 2.4% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026. Sees German GDP to expand by 0.7% in 2025 (prev. forecast 1.0%). GDP growth expected to accelerate to 1.3% in 2026 (remains below EZ avg. of 1.6%). German economy contract 0.1% this year vs 0.1% growth in spring forecast.
• Germany’s SPD leader says they do not need to wait for a new gov’t to begin debt brake reform, willingness to reform from the opposition leader is a good starting point, via Handelsblatt.

NOTABLE US HEADLINES

• Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) says a December rate cut is “certainly on the table but is not a done deal”, according to WSJ. Expects lower rates will be warranted. Says Fed policy is restrictive. Does not see signs of new price pressures. There will be more data between now and December meeting.
• US Treasury’s semi-annual currency report found no major US trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through June 2024 as no major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during the review period. However, the monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’ includes China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and Germany.
• US President-elect Trump picked RFK Jr to be Health and Human Services Secretary and said North Dakota Governor Burgum will be the Interior Secretary. It was separately reported that a US private funds group asked Trump to review harmful rules, preserve pro-growth taxes and promote alternative assets, according to a letter cited by Reuters.

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• The Senior Advisor to Iran’s Khamenei says “we support any ceasefire decision taken by the Lebanese government and resistance”.
• Israeli source says Hezbollah’s response to the American outline is expected “within days”, according to Kann News.
• Iran provided written assurances to the US administration in October that it was not seeking to kill Presidential contender Trump, via WSJ citing a US official; assurances which were intended to cool tensions between the US and Iran.
• Iran is preparing for Operation Sincere Promise 3 to respond to the Israeli attack, according to Sky News Arabia citing a Member of the Expediency in Iran.
• Israeli army issues new warnings to evacuate buildings in Burj al-Barajneh and Ghobeiry in the southern suburb of Beirut, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon in a widening war campaign, while the expanding ground operation risks protracted conflict but could build leverage for ceasefire talks, according to WSJ.
• Hezbollah said it targeted a military base in Israel’s Tel Aviv and targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy forces in the Kiryat Shmona settlement with a barrage of rockets, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Elon Musk and Iran’s ambassador reportedly discussed how to ease US and Iran tensions, according to NYT. Iran’s ambassador told Musk during the meeting on Monday that sanctions waivers should be obtained from the Treasury Department, while Iranian sources said the meeting was positive, according to Al Arabiya.

OTHER

• US President-elect Trump said they will avoid what happened before with their military in Afghanistan and will deal with the situation in Ukraine better, as well as work to reach a solution to the crisis.
• US President Biden administration official said the US must be prepared to expand its nuclear weapons force, while the decision on expanding US nuclear force will be left to President-elect Trump, according to WSJ.
• US and UK brought into force an amendment to the 1958 agreement between the two countries for cooperation in the uses of atomic energy in defence which will make the agreement enduring in its entirety, according to the US State Department.
• North Korean leader Kim guided a test of attack drones and ordered the mass production of suicide drones.
• Taiwan President Lai is planning to stop in Hawaii and maybe Guam during a visit to Pacific allies in the coming weeks, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• China’s Coast Guard said with China’s permission, the Philippines sent a civilian ship to transport supplies to its ‘illegally’ beached warship at the Second Thomas Shoal.
• The US plans additional sanctions to restrict Russia’s energy trade, plans to prohibit banks from dealing with Gazprombank, according to Nikkei.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin is back on a firmer footing and holds just above USD 89k.

APAC TRADE

• APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias albeit with gains capped following the uninspiring handover from Wall Street and as participants digested recent earnings releases and mixed Chinese activity data.
• ASX 200 was led by outperformance in Utilities and with gains in nearly all sectors aside from Healthcare amid headwinds for the latter following pressure in the industry stateside after US President-elect Trump picked vaccine sceptic RFK Jr as HHS Secretary.
• Nikkei 225 rallied on the back of recent currency weakness and with outperformance seen in some financial names after Japanese megabanks’ earnings results, while GDP data was mostly either inline or better than expected.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp ultimately gained but saw mixed price action throughout the day after various data releases in which Industrial Production disappointed but Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Chinese Home Prices showed a steeper Y/Y drop although the M/M decline moderated. Participants also digested tech earnings and the PBoC’s largest daily liquidity injection via reverse repos in over four years which is meant to counteract factors including maturing MLF loans and tax payments.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• China’s Finance Ministry will reduce export tax rebate rate for refined oil products, photovoltaics, batteries, and select non-metallic mineral products from 13-9% from Dec 2024. Will cancel the export tax rebate for aluminium and copper products, and chemically modified animal, plant, or microbial oils and fats.
• Alibaba (BABA/ 9988 HK) reportedly mulling offering USD 5bln in bonds.
• China’s MOFCOM is releasing a dual-use item export control list, which will be effective from December 1st; does not involve adj. to specific scope of export control.
• Hong Kong revises 2024 GDP forecast to 2.5% (prev. forecast at 2.5-3.0%)
• PBoC injected CNY 981bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.50% which was the largest daily cash injection through reverse repos since February 2020, while it stated that Friday’s cash injection through reverse repos was meant to counteract factors including maturing MLF loans and tax payments.
• China’s stats bureau said domestic demand is still insufficient but noted major economic indicators recovered ‘markedly’ in October and China’s consumer expectations improved, while they will consolidate the trend in economic recovery, step up policy adjustments and expand domestic demand. Furthermore, it stated that recent policies have shown positive effects on the economy and it is increasingly confident of achieving the 2024 economic growth target but noted that consumption growth still faces some constraints.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they will take appropriate action against excessive FX moves, while he added that one-sided, sharp moves were seen in the FX market and it is important for FX rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Oct) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 5.4%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Oct) 4.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.2%)
• Chinese FDI (YTD) Oct) -29.8% (Prev. -30.4%)
• Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.4%)
• Chinese Unemp Rate Urban Area (Oct) 5.0% (Prev. 5.1%)
• Chinese China House Prices MM (Oct) -0.5% (Prev. -0.7%)
• Chinese China House Prices YY (Oct) -5.9% (Prev. -5.8%)
• Japanese GDP QQ (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
• Japanese GDP QQ Annualised (Q3) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 2.9%)

2C ASIAN REPORT

Fed pricing shifts & Dollar strengthens as Powell strikes hawkish tone – Newsquawk Europe Market Open

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 01:16 AM

• APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias albeit with gains capped following the uninspiring handover from Wall Street and as participants digested recent earnings releases and mixed Chinese activity data.
• Fed Chair Powell struck a hawkish tone as he stated that the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates; money markets now price in around a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in December versus 80% pre-Powell.
• Chinese Industrial Production disappointed but Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Chinese Home Prices showed a steeper Y/Y drop although the M/M decline moderated.
• Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon in a widening war campaign, while the expanding ground operation risks protracted conflict but could build leverage for ceasefire talks, according to WSJ.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 2.0% on Thursday.
• Looking ahead, highlights include German Wholesale Price, UK GDP, Services, US Retail Sales, Capacity Utilisation, BoC SLOS, Speakers include ECB’s Lane & Cipollone, Fed’s Collins & Williams, Earnings from BAE Systems & Alibaba.

SNAPSHOT

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US TRADE

EQUITIES

• US stocks finished lower and almost all sectors closed in the red aside from energy and tech with headwinds seen following the firmer-than-expected Y/Y PPI data and with further pressure seen after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell who stated that the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates and that the economic strength gives the Fed the ability to approach its decisions carefully. This saw money markets now price in around a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in December versus 80% pre-Powell, while treasuries pared their initial gains and the dollar continued to strengthen on the day.
• SPX -0.60% at 5,949, NDX -0.66% at 20,897, DJIA -0.47% at 43,751, RUT -1.37% at 2,337.
• Click here for a detailed summary.

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• Fed Chair Powell said the economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates and they are moving policy over time toward neutral with the policy path not preset. Powell said he expects inflation to continue to come down towards the 2% goal, on a ‘sometimes-bumpy’ path and the Fed is committed to finishing the job on inflation, while he added economic strength gives the Fed the ability to approach its decisions carefully and noted the total personal consumption expenditures price index likely climbed 2.3% in October from a year earlier (prev. 2.1% in Sept) and core PCE likely climbed 2.8% (vs 2.7% in September).
• Fed Chair Powell said during the Q&A that Fed independence means monetary policy decisions can’t be reversed or reviewable and as they make decisions, they are not thinking about the wellbeing of any political party, as well as noted that political factors would be a distraction. Powell said that policy is restrictive and they started the process of cutting rates by moving to neutral, while they need to move patiently and carefully to find neutral. Powell also noted that as they are in the near plausible range of neutral, they may need to slow the pace of what they are doing and if the data lets them go slower, that’s a smart thing to do. Furthermore, he said the latest PPI reading was slightly more of an upward bump but he still thinks they are on track for inflation, as well as noted it is not clear how restrictive policy is but added policy is in a good place, while they have space to cut rates if need, and can be careful about cutting rates.
• US Treasury’s semi-annual currency report found no major US trading partners manipulated currency to gain unfair trade advantage in four quarters through June 2024 as no major trading partners met all three criteria for enhanced analysis during the review period. However, the monitoring list of trading partners whose currency practices ‘merit close attention’ includes China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Vietnam and Germany.
• US President-elect Trump picked RFK Jr to be Health and Human Services Secretary and said North Dakota Governor Burgum will be the Interior Secretary. It was separately reported that a US private funds group asked Trump to review harmful rules, preserve pro-growth taxes and promote alternative assets, according to a letter cited by Reuters.
• US President-elect Trump’s transition teams plans to terminate the USD 7.5k consumer tax credit for EV purchases, according to Reuters sources.

APAC TRADE

EQUITIES

• APAC stocks traded with a predominantly positive bias albeit with gains capped following the uninspiring handover from Wall Street and as participants digested recent earnings releases and mixed Chinese activity data.
• ASX 200 was led by outperformance in Utilities and with gains in nearly all sectors aside from Healthcare amid headwinds for the latter following pressure in the industry stateside after US President-elect Trump picked vaccine sceptic RFK Jr as HHS Secretary.
• Nikkei 225 rallied on the back of recent currency weakness and with outperformance seen in some financial names after Japanese megabanks’ earnings results, while GDP data was mostly either inline or better than expected.
• Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp saw mixed price action throughout the day after various data releases in which Industrial Production disappointed but Retail Sales topped forecasts, while Chinese Home Prices showed a steeper Y/Y drop although the M/M decline moderated. Participants also digested tech earnings and the PBoC’s largest daily liquidity injection via reverse repos in over four years which is meant to counteract factors including maturing MLF loans and tax payments.
• US equity futures remained subdued following the recent US PPI data and hawkish-leaning Fed rhetoric.
• European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.5% after the cash market closed higher by 2.0% on Thursday.

FX

• DXY took a breather after recently notching a five-day win streak and holds on to most of the prior day’s spoils which were facilitated by the firmer-than-expected yearly core and headline PPI data, as well as hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell who noted the “economy is not sending signals that the Fed needs to be in a hurry to lower interest rates”.
• EUR/USD regained some composure after yesterday’s price swings and brief dip beneath the 1.0500 handle although the rebound was limited and the latest comments from ECB’s Schnabel provided very little incrementally.
• GBP/USD traded rangebound following the recent failure to sustain the 1.2700 status and after comments from BoE Governor Bailey did little to shift the dial, while the attention now turns to an upcoming slew of UK data including the latest GDP figures.
• USD/JPY remained afloat after this week’s notable advances owing to a stronger dollar and with recent gains also facilitated by US PPI data and rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell, although the pair is off its best levels after mixed Japanese GDP data which mostly matched or topped estimates and with some mild jawboning from Japan’s Finance Minister.
• Antipodeans mildly gained to provide some slight reprieve from the recent selling pressure but with price action contained after the mixed activity data from China.
• PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1992 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1966).
• Mexican Interest Rate (Sep) 10.25% vs. Exp. 10.25% (Prev. 10.50%) with the voting unanimous. Banxico said the balance of risks to the growth of economic activity remained biased to the downside, while actions will be implemented in such a way that the reference rate remains consistent at all times with the trajectory ended to enable an orderly and sustained convergence of headline inflation to the 3% target during the forecast period.

FIXED INCOME

• 10yr UST futures were subdued following yesterday’s late retreat with pressure seen after Fed Chair Powell’s hawkish tone.
• Bund futures mildly pulled back after the prior day’s resurgence and tested the 132.00 level to the downside.
• 10yr JGB futures retreated beneath 143.00 with demand not helped by the mixed GDP data and 5yr JGB auction results.

COMMODITIES

• Crude futures were subdued after yesterday’s indecision amid a downbeat tone in the US and a larger-than-expected build in EIA crude inventories, while the latest IEA OMR raised the oil demand growth forecast for 2024 but slightly cut its view for 2025.
• Qatar set January Al-Shaheen crude term price at USD 0.73/bbl above Dubai quotes, according to Reuters sources.
• Spot gold remained afloat but lacked conviction with the upside contained by recent dollar strength.
• Copper futures gradually edged higher but with price action limited as participants digested mixed Chinese activity data.

CRYPTO

• Bitcoin eked mild gains with choppy price action seen on both sides of the USD 88,000 level.

NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES

• PBoC injected CNY 981bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 1.50% which was the largest daily cash injection through reverse repos since February 2020, while it stated that Friday’s cash injection through reverse repos was meant to counteract factors including maturing MLF loans and tax payments.
• China’s stats bureau said domestic demand is still insufficient but noted major economic indicators recovered ‘markedly’ in October and China’s consumer expectations improved, while they will consolidate the trend in economic recovery, step up policy adjustments and expand domestic demand. Furthermore, it stated that recent policies have shown positive effects on the economy and it is increasingly confident of achieving the 2024 economic growth target but noted that consumption growth still faces some constraints.
• US National Security Adviser Sullivan said the US seeks to manage competition with China so it doesn’t veer into conflict.
• Japanese Finance Minister Kato said they will take appropriate action against excessive FX moves, while he added that one-sided, sharp moves were seen in the FX market and it is important for FX rates to move stably reflecting fundamentals.

DATA RECAP

• Chinese Industrial Output YY (Oct) 5.3% vs. Exp. 5.6% (Prev. 5.4%)
• Chinese Retail Sales YY (Oct) 4.8% vs. Exp. 3.8% (Prev. 3.2%)
• Chinese Urban Investment (YTD)YY (Oct) 3.4% vs. Exp. 3.5% (Prev. 3.4%)
• Chinese Unemp Rate Urban Area (Oct) 5.0% (Prev. 5.1%)
• Chinese China House Prices MM (Oct) -0.5% (Prev. -0.7%)
• Chinese China House Prices YY (Oct) -5.9% (Prev. -5.8%)
• Japanese GDP QQ (Q3) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.7%)
• Japanese GDP QQ Annualised (Q3) 0.9% vs. Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 2.9%)

GEOPOLITICS

MIDDLE EAST

• US ambassador submitted a draft proposal for a Lebanon ceasefire to Lebanon’s parliament speaker, according to Reuters citing sources. It was separately reported that a US official stated Israel and Lebanon want to make a deal but it is unclear how willing they are to make concessions, according to Walla’s website cited by Al Jazeera.
• Israeli forces push deeper into Lebanon in a widening war campaign, while the expanding ground operation risks protracted conflict but could build leverage for ceasefire talks, according to WSJ.
• Hezbollah said it targeted a military base in Israel’s Tel Aviv and targeted a gathering of Israeli enemy forces in the Kiryat Shmona settlement with a barrage of rockets, according to Sky News Arabia.
• Elon Musk and Iran’s ambassador reportedly discussed how to ease US and Iran tensions, according to NYT. Iran’s ambassador told Musk during the meeting on Monday that sanctions waivers should be obtained from the Treasury Department, while Iranian sources said the meeting was positive, according to Al Arabiya.

OTHER

• US President-elect Trump said they will avoid what happened before with their military in Afghanistan and will deal with the situation in Ukraine better, as well as work to reach a solution to the crisis.
• US President Biden administration official said the US must be prepared to expand its nuclear weapons force, while the decision on expanding US nuclear force will be left to President-elect Trump, according to WSJ.
• US and UK brought into force an amendment to the 1958 agreement between the two countries for cooperation in the uses of atomic energy in defence which will make the agreement enduring in its entirety, according to the US State Department.
• North Korean leader Kim guided a test of attack drones and ordered the mass production of suicide drones.
• Taiwan President Lai is planning to stop in Hawaii and maybe Guam during a visit to Pacific allies in the coming weeks, according to sources cited by Reuters.
• China’s Coast Guard said with China’s permission, the Philippines sent a civilian ship to transport supplies to its ‘illegally’ beached warship at the Second Thomas Shoal.

EU/UK

NOTABLE HEADLINES

• BoE Governor Bailey said the UK must welcome the opportunity to rebuild EU relations and the UK must preserve free trade and the openness of the economy. Furthermore, Bailey endorsed Chancellor Reeves’s UK investment plans and noted the UK is not measuring economic intangibles well, while he urged for the UK not to counter protectionism with tariffs.
• ECB’s Schnabel said interest rates remain the primary monetary policy tool and that asset purchases are more powerful for stabilising markets than for stimulating the economy.
• French PM Barnier said they will probably bypass a parliament vote for the budget.

3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA

NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE

END

3C JAPAN

3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC/USA

How Trump Could Transform Indo–Pacific Policy

Thursday, Nov 14, 2024 – 11:50 PM

Authored by Andrew Thornebrooke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President-elect Donald Trump’s second term in office will likely bring sweeping changes to the nation’s Indo–Pacific policy and ongoing strategic competition with China.

Leaders throughout Congress and the national security space are therefore preparing for an era marked by increased confrontation as the administration pushes back on the Chinese regime’s aggression in the region.

Rep. John Moolenaar (R-Mich.), chair of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party, said he expects a second Trump administration to adopt a firm approach to foreign policy in the Indo–Pacific.

“During Trump’s first administration, peace through strength was at the forefront of American foreign policy,” Moolenaar said in a statement shared with The Epoch Times by the committee’s staff.

That strength, Moolenaar suggests, would extend to the U.S. allies throughout the Indo–Pacific, where Trump is expected to push regional partners to increase their defense spending in order to receive continued U.S. support.

“The entire free world must act with urgency to invest in its collective military power in order to deter conflict, support global prosperity, and defend our values against CCP [Chinese Communist Party] aggression,” Moolenaar said.

Those increased expectations of Washington’s allies could bring both risk and opportunities to U.S. relations in the region as the nation attempts to pressure regional partners into adopting a more forward-facing defense posture.

They will also likely bring increased volatility to the United States’ relationship with China and the CCP, including by shaping the potential for an armed conflict between the two superpowers over the future of Taiwan.

Taiwan Flashpoint

The CCP claims that Taiwan is part of its territory. Though the communist regime has never controlled the island, CCP leader Xi Jinping has made unifying Taiwan with the mainland a legacy issue of his rule and has ordered the Party’s military wing to prepare for a potential conflict by 2027.

The United States does not officially support Taiwanese independence or the forceful unification of the two territories. But, since 1979, Washington has maintained obligations to sell Taiwan the arms it needs to maintain its self-defense.

Likewise, the United States has maintained a policy of so-called strategic ambiguity since 1979, in which it will neither confirm nor deny its willingness to enter a military conflict to defend Taiwan from CCP aggression.

However, U.S. political and military leadership have signaled that they are preparing for such an eventuality. To that end, Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti issued a guidance document in September ordering the Navy to prepare for war with China by 2027.

The United States is not interested in preserving Taiwan’s independence simply because of its democratic government. The island nation is responsible for manufacturing more than half of the world’s semiconductors and nearly 90 percent of the globe’s advanced semiconductors, used in electronic components for everything from laptops to pickup trucks to hypersonic missiles.

To that end, Trump’s transactional approach to international security deals has thrown Taiwan’s central role in the global economy into question.

In July, for example, Trump called for Taiwan to pay more for its defense, though the island is already one of the largest purchasers of arms from the United States.

Since 1950, Taiwan has spent more than $50 billion on U.S. weapons, making it the fourth largest purchaser of U.S. arms behind Japan, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, according to the Council on Foreign Relations.

Trump has also suggested that military force would not be necessary to protect Taiwan from the CCP and has instead claimed that a severe enough economic threat to China would prevent an invasion of Taiwan.

Russell Hsiao, executive director of the Global Taiwan Institute think tank, told The Epoch Times that Trump’s ambiguous stance on Taiwan’s defense could invite further CCP attempts to sway American and Taiwanese decision-makers away from aggressively defending the island’s de facto independence.

“The president-elect has already indicated that he would be less clear than President Biden as to whether he thought the United States had an obligation to come to Taiwan’s defense if China decided to invade the island,” Hsiao said.

“Washington and Taipei should be prepared for Beijing to exploit this in its cognitive warfare campaigns and quickly develop their own counter-strategies.”

Hsiao noted, however, that Trump was “unencumbered by past precedents and norms,” which could help him to strengthen the bilateral relationship by overcoming the self-imposed restrictions of the past that have limited U.S. involvement with Taiwan on the international stage.

As such, he said, asking for Taiwan to accept a larger share of the financial burden for its defense could be an opportunity for Taiwanese leaders to demonstrate their resolve and, in the process, garner renewed U.S. support through access to increased arms sales.

“President-elect Trump is expected to emphasize burden-sharing in security ties with allies and partners,” Hsiao said.

“While this may be generally seen in a negative light by most allies and partners, it should be noted that this could lead to it being more forward-leaning in providing a wider variety of arms to Taiwan suited to a range of potential contingencies.”

Trump Expected to Deliver Security—at a Price

Taiwanese leadership responded by saying the island was committed to taking on more responsibility and defending itself from CCP aggression.

Taiwanese leadership may consider making a substantial arms purchase early on in the second Trump administration as a sort of down payment to demonstrate its resolve to the administration.

John Mills, former cybersecurity chief in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, said that ensuring a robust defense budget would help Taiwan to make sure U.S. support did not flag and that military expenditure was “the primary metric” used by Trump to determine an ally’s willingness to defend itself.

“We have a very poor track record when we carry the burden for other countries,” Mills said.

“All that is being asked is at least 2 percent of GDP spent on defense and, in reality, 4 to 5 percent is the new 2 percent.”

At present, Taiwan spends about 2.4 percent of its GDP on defense, according to data compiled by the CIA.

Other U.S. allies in the region are more varied. South Korea spends about 2.7 percent of its GDP on defense, and the Philippines spends only about 1.5 percent. Japan is in a unique situation because it is currently spending 1.4 percent but is in the middle of a historic reform of its military policy and strategy, which will see that figure rise to at least 2 percent in the coming years.

Yet none of those numbers at their current levels are likely to please the incoming Trump administration if it is truly so set on encouraging the nation’s allies in the Indo–Pacific to take point on confronting the Chinese regime’s global expansion.

There may be some wiggle room, however, as the administration looks to use less traditional pathways to secure its international interests.

Sam Kessler, a geopolitical analyst at the North Star Support Group risk advisory company, said that a hallmark of the first Trump administration was its ability to think outside of the box, and that would likely only increase now, given Trump’s growing distance from the old guard of the Republican Party.

“The Trump administration in the first term was innovative, proactive, and resourceful in the deals and agreements they crafted, so expect something similar, as well as a little predicted unpredictability, too,” Kessler told The Epoch Times.

“This may be done in the form of trade deals, security arrangements, foreign investments, and policies that may help reduce the threat levels, too. It could be a wide range of things that could be utilized.”

On that note, Kessler suggests that Trump would revisit trade deals and strong economic measures when confronting China and might prove surprisingly willing to take a proactive stance in the bilateral relationship with China.

Such economic deals, he said, could have the secondary objective of smoothing out regional tensions and preserving allied security while holding the CCP accountable economically.

“We may end up witnessing a series of deals and agreements that may be related to multiple issues that are non-related to the original purpose of a negotiation in order to reduce tensions between multiple parties in other areas,” Kessler said.

In all, it is clear that U.S. allies in the Indo–Pacific will be expected to contribute more to the common defense in the region, and such efforts will not go unseen.

With that much in mind, Mills said that he believes the likelihood of an armed conflict would drop, as Trump’s expectations for all nations in the Indo–Pacific would be clear.

“The likelihood of conflict in the western Pacific decreases significantly under Trump,” Mills said.

“Why? Because he’s showing clarity and resolve at all times. Clarity and resolve help prevent war. Lack of clarity and resolve creates war.”

4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS

France

Soccer-Israeli anthem booed, brief scuffles at France game

As the match got underway, there was a melee near the Israel fans’ section for several minutes, with people seen running and punches thrown.

By REUTERSNOVEMBER 14, 2024 23:49

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fdiaspora%2Fantisemitism%2Farticle-829221&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241114_225eea93a0f895c4b9661c69e2549a79309125bd&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Some French fans booed the Israeli national anthem and there were minor scuffles inside a sparsely-attended Stade de France on Wednesday for a Nations League game overshadowed by frictions around the Israel-Hamas war.

Seeking to prevent a repeat of violence in Amsterdam last week around a Europa League game involving Maccabi Tel Aviv, 4,000 French security personnel were deployed in and around the stadium and on public transport.

Some 100 Israel fans defied a warning from their government against traveling for sports events, sitting in a corner of the 80,000-capacity stadium which was barely a fifth full.

They waved yellow balloons and chanted “Free the Hostages” in reference to Israelis held in Gaza by Hamas terrorists.

Some boos and whistles were heard during the playing of the Israeli national anthem, which was then turned up on loudspeakers.

As the match got underway, there was a melee near the Israel fans’ section for several minutes, with people seen running and punches thrown. Stewards quickly formed a barrier.

It was unclear what had triggered the trouble.

Leading up to the game, several hundred anti-Israeli demonstrators had gathered at a square in Paris’ Saint-Denis district, perimeter, waving Palestinian flags, as well as a few Lebanese and Algerian ones, to protest against the match.

“We don’t play with genocide,” one banner read, in reference to the Gaza war.

Israel denies allegations of genocide in its more than year-long offensive against terrorist group Hamas.

---

---

No specific threat

Going into the ground, some Israel fans wore both Israeli and French colours. Two wore a t-shirt with Israeli club side Maccabi Tel Aviv’s logo on the front and the words “Ni Oubli Ni Pardon” (Never Forgive Never Forget) on the back.

One person held a paper with “fuck Hamas” written on it.

French Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau said this week there was never any doubt the match would go ahead, following the unrest in Amsterdam which saw both Maccabi fans and local groups engage in violence, according to Dutch police.

He said there were no specific threats identified ahead of the game, but that zero risk did not exist.

French President Emmanuel Macron was at the game in a show of solidarity. “We will not give into anti-Semitism anywhere and violence, including in France, will never prevail, nor will intimidation,” he told BFM TV hours before kickoff.

The match came a day after the ninth anniversary of coordinated Islamist attacks on entertainment venues across the French capital, including the national stadium.

Racism and intolerance are rising in France, fuelled in part by the war in Gaza after the Hamas terror attacks on Israel in October 2023. Similar trends have been witnessed elsewhere in Europe.

Nearly 70 suspects have been arrested and at least five people were injured in last week’s clashes between Maccabi fans and gangs in Amsterdam.

END

GERMANY

Afd continues to gain in popularity

(Remix)

Support For Germany’s AfD Continues To Soar Amid Calls For Election Ban By Political Opponents

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 02:00 AM

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party has seen a significant increase in support, climbing to 19.5 percent, a rise of 1.5 percentage points since October, despite political opponents ramping up efforts to block its participation in future elections.

The latest polling, conducted by Insa-Consulere and published by the Bild newspaper, places the AfD firmly in second place, behind the center-right CDU/CSU at 32.5 percent.

Germany, INSA poll:

CDU/CSU-EPP: 32.5% (+0.5)
AfD-ESN: 19.5% (+0.5)
SPD-S&D: 15.5% (+0.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 11.5% (+1.5)
BSW-NI: 7%
FDP-RE: 5% (+1)
LINKE-LEFT: 3.5% (-0.5)

+/- vs. 7-8 November 2024

Fieldwork: 8-11 November 2024
Sample size: 3,009

➤ https://t.co/obOCVirJfd#btw25… pic.twitter.com/gWDkbBw51B

— Europe Elects (@EuropeElects) November 11, 2024

The rise in AfD support comes at a critical juncture, with 112 Bundestag members from across the political spectrum pushing for the party’s exclusion from the Feb. 23 snap election. The motion to ban the AfD, citing its “anti-democratic” nature, has already been submitted to the Bundestag president, with the potential to escalate to Germany’s Constitutional Court. If successful, it could bar the party from standing in elections, effectively removing it from the democratic process.

🚨 BREAKING: Move to ban the AfD party in Germany now likely to occur before snap elections.

Already, 113 MPs have signed the application and submitted it to Bundestag President Barbel Bas.

The AfD is the second-most popular party in Germany, according to polls. pic.twitter.com/ig2hZesdHK

— Remix News & Views (@RMXnews) November 13, 2024

Proponents of the ban, including figures from the ruling SPD, argue that it is necessary to protect the integrity of German democracy. However, many AfD supporters and their allies view this as an undemocratic effort to silence the party’s growing influence.

Despite these efforts, the AfD’s profile continues to rise. In the latest polling, party leader Alice Weidel emerges as one of the most popular potential chancellor candidates, receiving 17 percent of support — placing her ahead of both Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Economy Minister Robert Habeck (Greens).

The AfD’s growing popularity is particularly pronounced in eastern Germany, where Weidel leads with 27 percent support.

In addition to political opponents, some analysts point to international parallels, drawing comparisons between the AfD’s rise and similar populist movements in other parts of the West. Insa managing director Hermann Binkert noted that the “Trump effect” and dissatisfaction with the current coalition government’s policies have played a key role in boosting the party’s standing.

The outcome of the motion to ban the AfD could have profound implications for the political landscape, not only in Germany but throughout Europe.

As Remix News previously reported, most of the German establishment is working towards a ban, but there is disagreement about the pace and timing of such a ban. Some are also worried that the ban will backfire and make the AfD more popular than ever.

For one, a ban could take years, and second, the country’s top court may reject the ban, which would be a catastrophic outcome for the German establishment.

Read more here…

END

HOLLAND

Dutch government ‘needs more time’ to flesh out antisemitism policy, justice minister says

By AFP

The Dutch government needs “more time” to flesh out a strategy to fight antisemitism after last week’s violence between Israeli football fans and locals, the justice minister says.

“Because of the terrible events of November 7 and 8 and because I want to promote a fruitful debate in parliament, I have decided to take more time to get a strategy ready,” Justice Minister David van Weel says.

“The strategy will soon be sent to parliament,” he says in a letter to MPs, published late on Thursday.

Prime Minister Dick Schoof promised “far-reaching measures” earlier this week.

He said they would be announced after a cabinet meeting on Friday but this now seems to be postponed.

The discussions follow violence against Israeli soccer fans following a Europa League match between Dutch giants Ajax and Maccabi on November 7.

Times of Israel Staff contributed to this report.

END

 

5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS

ISRAEL//HAMAS/HOSTAGES

(Times of Israel)

Some hostages have lost half their body weight while in Gaza, Families Forum assesses

As families’ health team warns of life-threatening dangers ahead of winter, IDF point man said to tell ministers military achievements have created conditions for a hostage deal

By ToI StaffToday, 1:32 pm

Israelis protest calling for a deal to release hostages held by Hamas terrorists in Gaza outside the Defense Ministry headquarters in Tel Aviv, November 13, 2024. (Avshalom Sassoni/Flash90)

The Hostages and Missing Families Forum’s health team on Wednesday released a report warning of the dire health conditions of surviving hostages in the Gaza Strip as well as the mental state of their relatives in Israel.

The health team assessed that some of the remaining hostages have lost around half of their body weight due to the lack of food in captivity, which will limit their chances of survival in the upcoming winter.

The hostages’ loss of body weight and muscle puts them in danger of frostbite, infections and hypothermia, according to the team. Without access to proper vitamins, hostages are also in danger of life-threatening heart problems, they said.

In addition to physical trauma, hostages face deep mental health issues due to the conditions of their captivity, including PTSD, depression and anxiety. Some may be experiencing suicidal thoughts, the report said.

Without access to visits by the Red Cross or proper health assistance, hostages face severe threats to their lives, the team added.

Their relatives are meanwhile suffering “ambiguous loss,” whereby an individual is left searching for answers due to a lack of closure or understanding over the absence of a loved one. They suffer chronic anxiety, depression and difficulty sleeping, the report said.

FILE: Members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad release Israeli hostages to the Red Cross, in Rafah, in the southern Gaza Strip, November 28, 2023. (Flash90)

It is believed that 97 of the 251 hostages abducted by Hamas on October 7 remain in Gaza, including the bodies of at least 34 confirmed dead by the IDF.

Hamas released 105 civilians during a weeklong truce in late November, and four hostages were released before that. Eight hostages have been rescued by troops alive, and the bodies of 37 hostages have also been recovered, including three mistakenly killed by the military as they tried to escape their captors.

Hamas is also holding two Israeli civilians who entered the Strip in 2014 and 2015, as well as the bodies of two IDF soldiers who were killed in 2014.

IDF hostage envoy said to warn ‘conditions are deteriorating’

Echoing the warnings of the forum, the Israeli military’s envoy to negotiations aimed at freeing hostages held in Gaza has warned cabinet ministers that time was running out for the captives, Channel 13 reported Wednesday.

The report said that Maj. Gen. Nitzan Alon said “stagnation” could not be accepted on the issue. He noted that Hamas has “taken a beating everywhere” in Gaza, and that “winter is arriving and conditions of the hostages are deteriorating.”

The general was quoted saying the IDF’s achievements have created conditions for a hostage deal.

This was also the stance voiced last week to hostage families by recently ousted defense minister Yoav Gallant, who suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has kept the war going for political reasons and not due to security concerns, preventing a ceasefire and hostage release deal.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Nitzan Alon attends a ceremony at the IDF Central Command headquarters in Jerusalem on July 8, 2024. (Oren Ben Hakoon/Flash90)

In quickly leaked remarks from a Likud faction meeting late last month, Netanyahu could be heard ruling out ending the war in exchange for the hostages, in what has further complicated negotiations. His critics have claimed his refusal to end the war stems from concerns that this would lead to the collapse of his coalition, which includes far-right elements who want the fighting to continue and for settlements to be established in northern Gaza.

While US officials have told The Times of Israel that the US has privately fumed at Netanyahu for adding conditions to an Israeli proposal that scuttled a deal in July, Washington has publicly placed more of the blame on Hamas for the ongoing impasse.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken blasted Hamas’s rejection of recent proposals for a short-term deal in remarks to reporters on Wednesday, adding that the terror group’s refusal to engage in recent negotiations is what led Qatar to tell Hamas’s officials in Doha to leave the country last week. No timeline has been given for the Hamas leaders’ departure, however.

Jacob Magid contributed to this report.

END

ISRAEL/GAZA/PALESTINIAN JIHAD/FRIDAY MORNING

Israel Air Force kills terrorist from PIJ Gaza City Brigade during strike

Anbar was eliminated alongside other Islamic Jihad terrorists who reportedly fired rockets toward Israel and its military troops.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 15, 2024 10:46

https://player.jpost.com/public/player.html?player=jpost&media=3799885&url=https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-829263IDF strike on Islamic Jihad terrorists published November 15, 2024 (CREDIT: IDF SPOKESMAN UNIT)

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fisrael-news%2Farticle-829263&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241114_225eea93a0f895c4b9661c69e2549a79309125bd&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israel’s military killed terrorist Alkaman Abed Elslam Khalil Anbar, who held a significant role in the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Gaza City Brigade, the IDF announced on Friday morning.

According to the IDF, Anbar’s position in the Islamic Jihad’s Gaza City Brigade placed him responsible for the terror group’s fire array that directed rockets toward Israeli territory. 

It also noted that Anbar was a significant figure in the group’s weapon manufacturing processes. 

Anbar’s elimination occurred through the intelligence direction of the Israeli Security Agency, the IDF said. He was hit during an Israel Air Force strike.

The IDF also added that Anbar was eliminated alongside other Islamic Jihad terrorists who reportedly fired rockets toward Israel and its military troops.

IDF continues Gaza Strip operations 

The IDF said that since Thursday, it has been continuing its operational activity in several areas of the Gaza Strip, including Jabalya, Beit Lahia, and Rafah.

During these operations, it reportedly directed aerial strikes and located large quantities of weaponry, including explosive devices, machine guns, and additional terrorist equipmen

END

LEBANON/IRAN/FRIDAY AFTERNOON

Report: Lebanese officer bars Iranian delegation from leaving the airport in sign of widening rift

Today, 10:30

The Lebanese army’s head of security at Beirut’s airport directed his officers to search a security team that was accompanying Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation International reports.

The Iranian team refused to be searched, citing diplomatic immunity, leading the airport security head to shut down all gates surrounding the VIP lounge where the Iranians were residing, preventing them from leaving the airport, according to the report.

The incident appears to point to growing frustration in Lebanon over Iran’s alleged meddling in its internal affairs through Tehran’s ongoing support for Hezbollah.

ISRAEL//GAZA/OPINION

(DeCamp/Antiwar.com)

Israeli Military Planning To Stay In Gaza Through 2025

Thursday, Nov 14, 2024 – 04:40 PM

Authored by Dave DeCamp via AntiWar.com,

The Israeli military is planning to stay in Gaza through 2025 and is stepping up demolitions and the construction of more permanent military structures, Haaretz reported on Wednesday.

There is a significant portion of Gaza’s territory that’s under the control of the Israeli military, where the IDF has been destroying every building in sight and establishing military outposts, including the Netzarim Corridor, a strip of land that separates northern Gaza from the rest of the Strip.

According to Haaretz, the Netzarim corridor is currently five to six kilometers wide and about nine kilometers long, and the Israeli military is working to expand it even more.

“Today, when you stand on the road in some places, you no longer see any houses,” an Israeli combat soldier said of the corridor, which includes the former site of a Jewish settlement.

The Israeli military has conducted a similar campaign of destruction along the Philadelphi Corridor, which is on the Gaza-Egypt border, and in a “buffer zone” along the entire Israel-Gaza border that cuts one kilometer into Gaza’s territory.

In those areas as well, virtually all the buildings have been destroyed, and military outposts are going up. Haaretz previously reported that the Netzarim Corridor, the Philadelphi Corridor, and the buffer zone account for 26% of Gaza’s territory.

In northern Gaza, Israel is now allegedly conducting an ethnic cleansing campaign focused on the cities of Beit Lahia, Beit Hanoun, and Jabalia, which have been completely cut off from aid deliveries as the Israeli military is starving the civilian population. Israeli forces are also demolishing buildings in the northern cities so the expelled Palestinians have nowhere to return.

The ethnic cleansing campaign and conquering of Gaza’s territory is expected to pave the way for Jewish settlements in Gaza. “When you see the roads being paved here, it’s clear that this isn’t intended for the ground maneuvers or for raids by the troops into various places.

They are building a colony in the middle of #Gaza_Strip!

Israeli soldier, in Netzarim Corridor, posted this on instagram writing: “My son, one day all of this will be yours.” pic.twitter.com/vB1YeSFqvn

— Motasem A Dalloul (@AbujomaaGaza) November 14, 2024

These roads lead, among other places, to the places from which some of the settlements were removed,” an Israeli officer in Gaza told Haaretz.

“I don’t know of any intent to rebuild them, that isn’t something we’re told explicitly. But everyone understands where this is going.”

end

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/USA

USA hands over a peace proposal to Hezbollah

(Times of Israel)

US hands ceasefire proposal to Beirut as IDF officer killed in southern Lebanon

Two soldiers hospitalized after drone impact in Eliakim, as IDF says Hezbollah rocket barrages have recently waned somewhat

By Agencies and Emanuel Fabian Follow
Today, 11:21 pm

Lt. Ivri Dickshtein. (IDF)

An IDF officer was killed and another officer was seriously wounded during fighting in southern Lebanon on Thursday, the military announced, as a Hezbollah drone wounded two soldiers in northern Israel.

The casualties came as Israel continued to pound Hezbollah targets in Lebanon — as well as in Syria — while the sides continued to look toward a possible ceasefire.

Lt. Ivri Dickshtein, 21, from Eli, was killed during an exchange of fire with Hezbollah operatives on Thursday, the army said.

Dickshtein, a platoon commander in the Golani Brigade’s 51st Battalion, had led his platoon in an offensive in a village in southern Lebanon. Amid the operation, the troops entered a building where they encountered at least five Hezbollah gunmen. The platoon commander was killed and another officer was seriously wounded during the gun battle. Another soldier was also moderately hurt in the incident. According to the probe, all five Hezbollah operatives were killed in the exchange.

In Israel, a drone launched from Lebanon impacted near the northern town of Eliakim, some 50 kilometers (31 miles) from the northern border, wounding two soldiers.

The drone had set off sirens for more than half an hour along Israel’s northern coast, including in Haifa.

The two soldiers were admitted to Rambam Hospital in Haifa with shrapnel wounds. They were in moderate condition, the medical center said.

Troops of the IDF Commando Brigade operate in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo issued on November 14, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that the US ambassador to Lebanon had submitted a draft for a proposed truce in Lebanon to the country’s speaker of parliament, Nabih Berri.

US ambassador Lisa Johnson met with Berri, a Hezbollah ally and the typical conduit for diplomacy with the group, on Thursday to submit Washington’s first written proposal in at least several weeks, two senior Lebanese political sources said.

“It is a draft to get observations from the Lebanese side,” one of the sources told Reuters. Neither source could provide details on the contents of the proposal.

On Thursday, Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar spoke with his French counterpart Jean-Noel Barrot, and told him that there was “progress” in attempts to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon that would allow Israelis to return to their homes safely.

According to the Foreign Ministry, Sa’ar stressed that implementation of any agreement must be ensured, including keeping Hezbollah away from the border and preventing it from rearming through Syria.

Men check the destruction at the site of an Israeli airstrike targeting a neighborhood in southern Beirut on November 13, 2024, amid the ongoing war between Israel and the Hezbollah terror group. (Ibrahim Amro/AFP)

Sa’ar stressed that “the international community has a role to act so that Lebanon will once again belong to the Lebanese people and not to the Iranian regime.”

Also Thursday, Energy Minister Eli Cohen said Israel was closer to reaching a ceasefire agreement than it had been since the start of the war, but that it must retain freedom to act inside Lebanon should any deal be violated.

Lebanese officials told Reuters that “direct enforcement” by Israel had not been formally floated to Lebanon, but that it would be rejected by Beirut.

“The idea that Israel can enforce at any time — that is unthinkable,” one of the political sources said.

UN peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix said that “redeployment of the Lebanese armed forces is an absolutely central element to any durable settlement” in southern Lebanon.

Lacroix, who oversees the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon, said the UN intends to bolster its peacekeeping mission there to better support the Lebanese army once a truce is agreed to, but will not directly enforce a ceasefire.

“I think that has to be very clear. Implementing the [2006 UN Resolution] 1701 is the responsibility of the parties,” says Lacroix. “UNIFIL has a supportive role, and there is a lot of substance in that supporting role.”

United Nations peacekeeping chief Jean-Pierre Lacroix speakes during a press conference in Beirut, Lebanon, November 14, 2024. (AP Photo/Lujain Jo)

The IDF said Thursday it had seen a decrease in the number of rockets fired by Hezbollah at Israel in the past week, down to under 100 a day on average, compared with 150-200 a day last month and in the months before that.

The military believes Hezbollah is struggling to carry out major barrages, as most of its rocket stockpiles have been targeted and dozens of its commanders have been killed. Before the war, the IDF had assessed that Hezbollah would fire thousands of rockets per day in an escalation.

Lebanon’s state media reported Thursday that an Israeli airstrike killed at least nine people and wounded five others in Baalbek city in northeastern Lebanon.

Throughout the day, sporadic airstrikes targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs in a clear uptick in attacks on the area over the past two days, with the IDF issuing evacuation warnings for several locations and buildings in the suburbs.

Israeli fighter jets struck several Hezbollah weapons depots in the Hezbollah stronghold, following evacuation warnings, the IDF said.

The sites were located “in the heart of a civilian population,” the military noted, accusing the terror group of using innocents as human shields.

The United States voiced concern on Thursday over Beirut-area fighting.

“You’ve heard us say time and time again that we do not want to see these kinds of [military] operations in Beirut, especially as it relates to densely populated areas,” said US State Department spokesman Vedant Patel when asked about the strikes.

Smoke rises from a building hit in an Israeli airstrike in Dahiyeh, in the southern suburb of Beirut, Lebanon, November 14, 2024, amid the fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah terror group. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)

Israel has struck more than 300 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon in the past week, including 40 in Beirut, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Thursday evening.

“We are striking… from Dahiyeh to Damascus,” he said in a press conference, referring to the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as the Syrian capital.

The targets in Lebanon included weapons depots, commander centers and rocket launchers, according to Hagari.

The IDF spokesman noted: “We have identified that there are rockets and other weapons Hezbollah is launching at Israel that were manufactured in Syria, and were transferred to Hezbollah from Syria.”

Hagari vowed that the IDF will target “all attempts to transfer weapons from Syria to Hezbollah and strike any infrastructure we identify in Syria that is being used to manufacture weapons for Hezbollah.”

On Thursday, Syria’s state-run SANA news agency reported fresh Israeli airstrikes in the al-Qusayr area, near the border with Lebanon.

Smoke rises from the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted Beirut’s southern suburbs neighborhood of Ghobeiry on November 14, 2024, as the war continues between Israel and the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon. (AFP)

Also Thursday, UNIFIL said two or three unknown people fired approximately 30 shots in the direction of its peacekeepers on Thursday.

The UNIFIL soldiers fired back and moved to safety. No one was hurt in the incident and an investigation was launched, UNIFIL said in a statement. It implied the shooters were Lebanese.

“We remind the Lebanese authorities of their responsibility to ensure the safety and security of peacekeepers who are carrying out sensitive and important work on Lebanese territory,” the UN force added. “We have requested the Lebanese authorities undertake a full and complete investigation of this incident and bring the perpetrators to justice.”

Spanish peacekeepers of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) coordinate their patrol with the Lebanese Military Police, in Marjayoun in south Lebanon on October 8, 2024. (AFP)

Since October 8, 2023, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there.

Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group.

The attacks on northern Israel since October 2023 have resulted in the deaths of 43 civilians. In addition, 69 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon in late September. Two soldiers have been killed in a drone attack from Iraq, and there have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.

The IDF estimates that some 3,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the conflict. Around 100 members of other terror groups, along with hundreds of civilians, have also been reported killed in Lebanon.

END

ISRAEL GREECE/TURKEY

Greece in talks with Israel to develop 2 bln euro ‘Iron Dome’

Greece is keen to invest in its defenses to keep up with its NATO ally and historic rival Turkey, which is also developing its own air defenses, despite some improvement in relations.

By REUTERSNOVEMBER 14, 2024 16:55

Greece is in talks with Israel to develop a 2 billion euro ($2.11 billion) anti-aircraft and missile defense dome, part of a wider push to modernize its armed forces as it recovers from a protracted debt crisis, Greek officials said on Thursday.

The defenses would likely mimic Israel’s Iron Dome and other systems that intercept short- and long-range missiles launched during strikes from its neighbours amid the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon.

Greece is keen to invest in its defenses to keep up with its NATO ally and historic rival Turkey, which is also developing its own air defenses, despite some improvement in relations.

The plans

“The plan is to create a multi-layer anti-aircraft and anti-drone system,” one source with knowledge of the issue told Reuters after a closed door briefing with Greek defense Minister Nikos Dendias.

“We are in discussions with Israel,” the source said.

A second official confirmed the scale of the potential deal, adding that Greece needs to spend 12.8 billion euros by 2035 to modernise its armed forces.

The air defenses are part of Athens’ 10-year military purchasing plan that includes acquiring up to 40 new F-35 fighter jets and drones from the US, and four Belharra frigates and Rafale jets from France.

“Our effort is for a quick transition of our armed forces to the 21st century,” defense Minister Dendias said before the Thursday briefing.

Greece currently uses US Patriot and old Russian S-300 systems to protect its airspace.Advertisement

Despite some thaw in Greece’s long-troubled relations with Turkey, its much larger eastern neighbour, the two countries remain at odds on a range of issues including sea boundaries, energy resources and airspace in the eastern Mediterranean.

END

ISRAEL SYRIA/LEBANON

more strikes

(JerusalemPost)

Hagari: IDF will not permit weapons trafficking to Hezbollah from Syria

IDF Spokesperson warns Hezbollah against Syria presence, reveals extensive operations in southern Lebanon and claims destruction of terror infrastructure in Beirut.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, REUTERSNOVEMBER 14, 2024 20:31Updated: NOVEMBER 14, 2024 22:44

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-829188&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241114_225eea93a0f895c4b9661c69e2549a79309125bd&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israel will attack any attempt to bring weapons to Hezbollah from Syria, IDF chief spokesperson R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari said on Thursday.

“We are identifying rockets and other weapons that Hezbollah is launching at Israeli territory that were manufactured in Syria,” R.-Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters. “We will attack every attempt to bring weapons from Syria to Hezbollah. And we will attack all infrastructure we identify in Syria whose purpose is to produce weapons for Hezbollah.”He added that the military has been carrying out airstrikes from Beirut suburb and Hezbollah stronghold Dahiyeh to Damascus.He was speaking shortly after Syria’s state news agency reported what it said was an Israeli airstrike that hit a bridge in Syria in the area of Qusayr near the border with northern Lebanon.

The IDF said earlier that it struck military sites and command centers belonging to Palestinian Islamic Jihad – located in Syria. “Alongside Hamas… PIJ directed by its leaders outside the Gaza Strip, participated in the murderous attack on October 7th,” said the military, adding that PIJ has been actively assisting Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Syrian state media reported that 15 people were killed in Israeli strikes on residential buildings in Damascus. A Syrian military source said that the buildings targeted were located in the suburbs of Mazzeh and Qudsaya, both in the west of the Syrian capital, according to SANA.“The terrorist organization is an additional Iranian proxy acting under the direct instruction of Iran. Moreover, the Islamic Jihad terrorist organization operates in Syria under the cover of the Syrian Regime,” said the IDF.

Hezbollah’s Beirut supply

Hundreds of Hezbollah terror compounds have been destroyed since the beginning of Operation Northern Arrows in September, Hagari said, and many weapons have been seized and destroyed.

“We have destroyed most of Hezbollah’s production sites and weapons warehouses in Beirut,” he announced.

---

---

Early Thursday morning, the IDF confirmed that it downed a drone under the Syrian skies that was launched from the east. It was en route to Israel and was shot down before it crossed into Israeli territory. It was also the second such drone to be downed by Israeli defense systems.

Fallen soldiers

The IDF announced on Thursday that Lt. Ivri Dickshtein, 21, from Eli, was killed in southern Lebanon.

The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) said on Thursday that two or three unknown people fired approximately 30 shots in the direction of peacekeepers, who fired back and moved to safety. No one was hurt and an investigation was launched, UNIFIL added in a statement.Throughout Thursday morning, Israel Air Force jets struck a series of sites in the Dahiyeh south of Beirut, including weapons storage facilities, command centers, and other terrorist infrastructure. There were more strikes on Hezbollah sites in the Dahiyeh later in the evening.On Tuesday and Wednesday, the strikes were quite wide, spanning over 30 targets. The military noted that most of these were in civilian areas, highlighting Hezbollah’s “cynical use of civilians as human shields.”The head of Lebanon’s largest Christian party said Iran-backed Hezbollah should relinquish its weapons as quickly as possible to end its year-long war with Israel and spare Lebanon further death and destruction.Samir Geagea, Hezbollah’s fiercest political opponent in Lebanon, spoke to Reuters on Thursday at his mountain home and party headquarters in Maarab, north of Beirut, as Israel carried out waves of strikes on areas where Hezbollah holds sway.“With the destruction of all of Hezbollah’s infrastructure and its warehouses, a big part of Lebanon is also being destroyed. That’s the price,” he said.Hezbollah’s critics in Lebanon, such as Geagea, say it unilaterally pulled Lebanon into a new war after it began firing at Israel in solidarity with Hamas following the October 7 massacre. Hezbollah says it is defending Lebanon from Israeli aggression and has vowed to keep fighting, saying it will not lay down its arms or allow Israel to achieve political gains on the back of the war.

Rockets rained down on Thursday in the North

Over the past week, the IAF destroyed more than 140 rocket launchers belonging to Hezbollah located in southern Lebanon. One of the launchers was responsible for rockets fired at the Western Galilee on Wednesday, and to central Israel on both Wednesday and Tuesday.The military said that on Tuesday, fighter jets struck a senior operations commander in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Forces. It added that 200 Hezbollah operatives were killed in the last week.In Gaza, the military said that troops continued to fight in Beit Lahiya and Jabalya, locating large caches of weapons and killing dozens of Hamas fighters, the military said. In Rafah, IAF jets struck a weapons storage facility.

end

ISRAEL/IRAN

END

ISRAEL/ HEZBOLLAH/THURSDAY MORNING

END

//ISRAEL/USA /

END

ISRAEL/USA/OPINION

end

Israel/West Bank/USA

end

ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH//thursday night

12 reported killed in Israeli strike on eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek

By Reuters

Rescuers gather at the site of an Israeli airstrike that targeted a house in the eastern Lebanese city of Baalbek on November 14, 2024. (Nidal Solh/AFP)

An Israeli strike kills 12 people after it hit a civil defense center in Lebanon’s city of Baalbek, the regional governor tells Reuters, adding that rescue operations are ongoing.

Eight others, including five women, were also killed and 27 wounded in another Israeli attack on the Lebanese city, health ministry reported today.

There was no immediate comment from the IDF on the strik/e.

END

Israel/Lebanon Syria

Times of Israel/Thursday night

IDF hits Palestinian Jihad sites

(Times of Israel)

IDF says it hit 30 Hezbollah sites in Beirut, Palestinian terror targets in Damascus

Strike in Syria said to kill 15 people; military issues evacuation orders to residents in targeted parts of Lebanese capital; over 140 rocket launchers destroyed in past week

By Emanuel Fabian, Follow
Agencies and ToI StaffToday, 4:57 pm

https://x.com/i/status/1857005497246728617

Footage shows an Israeli airstrike in the vicinity of Beirut’s international airport, as a passenger plane is seen taxiing in the background on November 14, 2024 (X; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)

Israeli warplanes on Thursday hit Hezbollah sites in Beirut after the military issued warnings to residents in targeted areas to evacuate their homes, saying they were located near assets belonging to the terror group. Footage shared by Lebanese media showed one of the strikes in the vicinity of Beirut’s international airport, as a passenger plane was seen taxiing in the background.

Jets also struck sites in Damascus belonging to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror group.

The Israel Defense Forces confirmed carrying out airstrikes in Syria, saying it targeted several buildings and command centers belonging to the PIJ. Syria’s state-run SANA news agency said the strikes killed 15 and wounded 16 others.

The strikes targeted two residential buildings in the Mezzeh district of the capital and the nearby city of Qudssaya, SANA said.

The Israeli military said the strikes were a “significant blow” to the Gaza Strip-based Palestinian terror group and its operatives.

The IDF has carried out numerous strikes in Syria in recent months, where Hezbollah has a presence, and which the terror group uses to smuggle arms into Lebanon. Other Iranian-backed terror groups that attack Israel also operate there.

Islamic Jihad carried out the October 7 onslaught alongside Hamas, and its operatives have also been involved in launching attacks on Israel from Lebanon, alongside Hezbollah.

מוקדם יותר היום, מטוסי קרב של חיל האוויר, בהכוונת פיקוד הצפון תקפו מספר מבנים צבאיים ומפקדות של ארגון הטרור הג׳יהאד האיסלאמי בסוריה>> pic.twitter.com/8XjXqleY2C

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) November 14, 2024

In Lebanon, the IDF said strikes targeting Hezbollah command centers, weapon depots and other infrastructure were carried out overnight and in the morning.

It said over 30 Hezbollah sites in the Dahiyeh suburb had been targeted over the past two days.

The sites were located “in the heart of a civilian population,” the IDF said, accusing the terror group of using innocents as human shields.

מטוסי קרב של חיל האוויר, בהכוונת אגף המודיעין, השלימו לפני זמן קצר סדרת תקיפות נוספת במרחב הדאחייה שבביירות בה הותקפו מחסני אמצעי לחימה, מפקדות צבאיות ותשתיות נוספות שהיו בשימוש ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה>> pic.twitter.com/4aIVr3LVyH

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) November 14, 2024

The IDF also issued new evacuation orders for Lebanese civilians in the vicinity of two buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs on Thursday afternoon, ahead of airstrikes against Hezbollah assets. Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, published maps alongside the announcement, which called on civilians to distance themselves at least 500 meters from the sites.

The IDF said Thursday that in the past week, airstrikes had destroyed more than 140 Hezbollah rocket launchers.

Among the launchers hit were some used to fire barrages at northern and central Israel on Wednesday.

Five people were killed in strikes on the towns of Bazourieh and Jumayjimah, Lebanese media reported.

"مطار الشهيد رفيق الحريري / بيروت الدولي " هذا الصباح 👇#هيدا_نحن_هيدا_جونا#اهلا_بهالطلة pic.twitter.com/AtYPTwYdOU

— الزعيم الفينيئي (@zaaeim) November 14, 2024

On the ground in south Lebanon, IDF commandos located a multiple-rocket launcher belonging to Hezbollah, the military said. The Commando Brigade, operating under the 91st Division, has been operating in recent days at several “new targets” in southern Lebanon.

The IDF said the commandos found and destroyed a rocket launcher with 32 barrels aimed at Israel, along with other weapons. It also said an airstrike killed two senior commanders in Hezbollah’s elite Radwan unit who were responsible for anti-tank units and operations in the coastal area.

A multiple rocket launcher is found by troops of the IDF Commando Brigade in southern Lebanon, in a handout photo issued on November 14, 2024. (Israel Defense Forces)

Separately, it said some 200 Hezbollah operatives were killed over the past week during the fighting in southern Lebanon and in airstrikes.

The IDF published footage of some of the strikes.

מטוסי קרב של חיל האוויר, בהכוונת פיקוד הצפון, תקפו והשמידו במהלך השבוע האחרון יותר מ-140 משגרים של ארגון הטרור חיזבאללה בדרום לבנון בסגירות מעגל מהירות. משגרים אלו היוו איום מיידי על העורף הישראלי ועל כוחות צה"ל אשר פועלים בדרום לבנון>> pic.twitter.com/54wHV5hANq

— צבא ההגנה לישראל (@idfonline) November 14, 2024

Additionally, the army said troops from the 188th Brigade operating in southern Lebanon had uncovered major weapons depots belonging to the Radwan unit.

Among the arms discovered were anti-tank weapons, sniper rifles and rocket launchers primed to fire at communities in northern Israel. All the arms were destroyed.

Hezbollah weapons discovered by troops operating in southern Lebanon in an undated picture released on November 14, 2024 (Israel Defense Forces)

A barrage of five rockets was launched from Lebanon at Haifa on Thursday afternoon. The IDF said most of the projectiles were intercepted, while the rest struck open areas. There were no reports of injuries or major damage.

The previous night, the IDF said it shot down a drone “from the east,” usually a reference to Iraq, as it headed toward Israel, hours after downing a UAV over Syrian skies.

An Iron dome interceptor targets a rocket form Lebanon, as it seen from the northern city of Safed, November 13, 2024 (David Cohen/Flash90)

In both incidents, the military stressed the drones never entered Israeli airspace and were intercepted over Syria.

Channel 12 reported Thursday that a response from Beirut to a Lebanon ceasefire proposal from the US could come within the next 24 hours.

Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer was in Washington this week to meet with Biden administration officials on the finishing touches to the proposal, including written guarantees that Israel has freedom of action against Hezbollah threats in Lebanon.

Amid intense fighting, The Washington Post reported Wednesday that Israel was pushing ahead with efforts to forge a ceasefire there, as a foreign policy “gift” for the incoming Trump administration.

“There is an understanding that Israel would gift something to Trump … that in January there will be an understanding about Lebanon,” an Israeli official told the Post, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Ali Hassan Khalil, the political aide to Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, on Wednesday said Lebanese negotiators had reached a preliminary understanding with US envoy Amos Hochstein on a framework for a ceasefire.

In an interview with the broadcaster Al Jazeera on Wednesday evening, Khalil said that this proposal was conveyed to the Israeli side through Hochstein, though Lebanon had yet to receive any response or any suggested amendments from Israel.

He said any potential deal must be firmly based on UN Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, to help the Lebanese army keep its southern border area with Israel free of weapons or armed personnel other than those of the Lebanese state.

File: US special envoy Amos Hochstein meets with Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister in Beirut on October 21, 2024. (ANWAR AMRO / AFP)

Khalil said Lebanon had no objection to US or French participation in overseeing ceasefire compliance.

Israel has vowed to push Hezbollah away from the border and restore security to its communities near the boundary after over a year of deadly rocket and drone fire from the Iran-backed terror group that forced the evacuation of some 60,000 residents from the north of the country.

Israel’s Energy Minister Eli Cohen, meanwhile, said Israel is closer to reaching an arrangement over fighting with Hezbollah than it has been since the start of the war, but that it must retain freedom to act inside Lebanon should any deal be violated.

A key sticking point for Israel, he said in a Thursday interview with Reuters, is ensuring it retains freedom of action should Hezbollah return to border areas where it could pose a threat to Israeli communities.

“We will be less forgiving than in the past over attempts to create strongholds in territory near Israel,” Cohen said.

end

ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH FRIDAY MORNING

Israel strikes Beirut suburbs known to house Hezbollah terrorists

(JerusalemPost)

Israel strikes Beirut suburbs after resident evacuation warnings

The report of the building hit came approximately one hour after residents of Lebanon’s southern suburbs were called to evacuate their homes.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 15, 2024 07:56Updated: NOVEMBER 15, 2024 13:43

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Fbreaking-news%2Farticle-829254&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241114_225eea93a0f895c4b9661c69e2549a79309125bd&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut’s southern suburb area on Friday morning and struck a building, Reuters images showed, and witnesses said. 

The Hezbollah-affiliated Lebanese news channel Al Mayadeen also reported on the strikes in the area.

According to Reuters witnesses, the Israeli strike hit a building near a central park on the edge of Beirut’s suburbs.

The report of the building hit came approximately one hour after residents of Lebanon’s southern suburbs were called to evacuate their homes by IDF Arabic Spokesperson Avichay Adraee in an X/Twitter post during the morning.  

https://twitter.com/AvichayAdraee/status/1857327551837814832

Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs, after an Israeli strike, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon November 15, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Adnan Abidi TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)

Warning civilians in advance 

Specifically, Adraee noted that residents in the areas of Burj El-Barajneh and Ghobeiry should leave their homes and stay at a distance of 500 meters before planned Israel strikes.

“You are located near facilities and interests affiliated with Hezbollah, which the IDF will be targeting in the near future,” Adraee wrote.

The post showed an illustration of a map with the mentioned locations marked in red.

Adraee posted an additional message to X on Friday afternoon that again warned residents in suburban areas to leave. This time, he called for those in the areas of Haret Hreik and Hadath to evacuate.

END

ISRAEL/HOUTHIS/USA

end

/RUSSIA///UKRAINE

Russia Has Surged 50,000 Troops Into Kursk Region To Boot Ukrainian Army

Thursday, Nov 14, 2024 – 06:25 PM

This week the Ukrainian government has warned its allies that the army faces nearly 50,000 Russian troops now deployed to Kursk province.

Ukrainian forces have held hundreds of square kilometers of territory inside Russia since a surprise blitz move across the border in early August. Rather than Moscow choosing to relocate sizeable forces from Donbass to defend Kursk, which Kiev was hoping for as a strategic way to weaken Russian front lines in the east, the Kremlin has been patient.

It appears a final big push to force out the Ukrainians is underway. President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this in Monday statements. He said that Ukrainian troops “continue to hold back” the “nearly 50,000-strong enemy group” in Kursk.

But with those numbers on the Russian side, and given the battle space is inside Russian territory, it is only a matter of time before Kiev’s Kursk adventure comes to a halt.

“They stormed with a battalion-sized force,” an officer of a Ukrainian mechanized unit told CNN, adding that “the Russian invaders were eliminated.”

There also remains deep concern that Russia is sending North Korean troops to help gain back control of occupied Kursk. CNN writes of some of the latest:

And while Russia has reclaimed some settlements, the line of control has barely changed over the past months.

A US official told CNN on Sunday that Russia has amassed a large force of tens of thousands — including recently arrived North Korean troops — to carry out an assault on the Ukrainian positions in Kursk. The official said the offensive was expected in the coming days.

Zelensky has claimed that some 11,000 North Korean troops are in the region. They are said to be in Belgorod as well, which has also been subject of frequent Ukrainian cross-border attacks.

The CNN report continues, “Separately, a Ukrainian commander told CNN Sunday that North Korean troops were taking part in direct combat operations in Kursk, as well as defensive operations in the neighboring Belgorod region of Russia and in Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories.”

Starting last week, Zelensky said there have been direct and deadly clashes between Ukrainian and North Korean forces. Russia has not completely denied it, saying that a defense treaty inked between Moscow and Pyongyang allows for allied forces to help defend Russian territory.

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1857067871345524983

Given the incoming Trump administration and its vow to immediately achieve ceasefire, pressure will grow on Kiev to quickly enter negotiations with Russia. Any future deal would have to involve Ukrainian forces exiting Kursk, assuming they are not defeated there first, or else the Kremlin will not sign off on it.

END

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Trump’s Win Unlikely To Substantially Change US Stance On Ukraine: Lavrov

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 04:15 AM

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has issued new comments on the incoming Trump administration at a moment his cabinet picks are being reported daily, including ‘Russia-friendly’ Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence.

Lavrov in the wide-ranging interview on state-owned channel Russia-1 articulated that Moscow’s view is that Washington’s stance on the Ukraine conflict is unlikely to change significantly even under the Trump administration.

He explained that the United States will essentially always seek to dominate areas which fall under NATO influence, and that Trump too is likely to do the same, despite campaign promises to rapidly achieve a peace deal ending the conflict.

Ultimately, Lavrov’s position is that it doesn’t matter who is president of the US. Below is what he said according to Russian media translation:

“I have no doubt that they will want to keep these processes under their control… Washington’s attitude towards Ukrainian affairs and European affairs will not change in principle, in the sense that Washington will always strive to keep under its watchful eye everything that happens in the areas near NATO and the NATO area itself.”

The top Russian diplomat was also asked about recent widespread reporting that Trump is mulling concrete plans to ‘freeze’ the conflict while pressuring Kiev to give up its aspirations to join the NATO alliance for at least 20 years.

“Some [Western politicians] have started to look more soberly at the Ukrainian situation and say, ‘what’s lost is lost, let’s somehow freeze this entire thing.’ Yet… they still suggest having a truce along the contact line for ten years. These would be the same Minsk accords in a new wrapping, or even worse,” Lavrov said. The Kremlin’s position is that Minsk was a sham, and was simply used to buy time while the West armed Ukraine.

“The Minsk accords were final. They were about a small part of Donbass, to be honest. But everything collapsed because [the Kiev regime] categorically did not want to grant this part of Donbass – which would have remained part of Ukraine – special status, primarily in the form of the right to speak their native language,” Lavrov explained further.

He additionally asserted that a key cause of the war was the “deliberate extermination of everything Russian” in Donbass, and thus Russia will insist that any deal to end the war must guarantee protections for Russian-speaking people in Ukraine.

Tulsi was 100% right and only looks better in hindsight for having the courage to say it. https://t.co/IpUSor5cg8

— David Sacks (@DavidSacks) November 14, 2024

The Zelensky government has long waged a campaign to suppress Russian culture and language from public discourse, despite some one-third of the country using Russian as a first language. More than half the population also knows Russian, even when Ukrainian is used as their first language.

In addition, the Ukrainian government has been persecuting the Ukrainian Orthodox Church because it maintains communion with the Moscow Patriarchate, seizing churches and monasteries in the process, and arresting bishops.

end

RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA

Zelensky: “The War Will End Faster” Under Trump Administration

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 11:20 AM

Update(1120ET): Merely a year ago or less, Ukrainian officials and Kiev’s staunchest supporters essentially considered it ‘treason’ to even broach the possibility of peace talks with Russia. President Zelensky himself had frequently made it clear that he would not consider it so long as Putin is in power.

But on Friday, Zelensky issued some remarks which constitute a glaring 180-degree reversal, in the wake of Trump’s election victory, on the prospect of peace in Ukraine. Zelensky stated that under the Trump administration “the war will end faster”. He laid out the following in a fresh interview, according to a regional source:

“It is very important for us to have a just peace, so that we do not feel that we have lost our best because of the injustice that has been imposed on you. The war will end, but there is no exact date. Certainly, with the policies of this team that will now lead the White House, the war will end sooner. This is their approach, their promise to their society, and it is also very important to them,” he said.

As for the earlier Putin-Scholz phone call, it ended on a note that the two leaders should talk again soon. Their discussion has been described as “frank” and “detailed” concerning the Ukraine conflict. Putin conveyed to the German leader that Russia-German relations have seen “unprecedented degradation” – according to TASS.

Below is the call summary/readout from the Russian side:

“The chancellor and the Russian president agreed to stay in contact from now on. The German government will ensure that allies and partners, as well as the EU and NATO leadership are informed,” the source said.

In addition to the information released by the German government’s press service after the conversation, the source said that Scholz expressed concern over reports about the alleged deployment of North Korean servicemen to Russia. According to him, this could allegedly lead to “a significant escalation and expansion of the conflict.”

And most importantly the two expressed a desire for formal Ukraine talks:

Russia is open to talks to settle the conflict in Ukraine based on the proposals that were announced at the Foreign Ministry in June, Russian President Vladimir Putin told German Chancellor Olaf Scholz as they spoke by phone, the Kremlin said.

“As for the prospects for a political and diplomatic settlement of the conflict, the Russian president noted that the Russian side has never refused and remains open to the resumption of the negotiations that were interrupted by the Kiev regime,” the Kremlin said in a statement. “Russia’s proposals are well known and outlined, in particular, in a June speech at the Russian Foreign Ministry.”

All of this – especially Zelensky’s apparent change of heart (or else realization that the war is unwinnable at this point) – points to strong momentum that talks could get underway before Trump is even sworn in on Jan.20. Zelensky, when he last met Trump in New York, had described that Ukraine has “been through hell”.

* * *

Potential near-term Russia-Ukraine negotiations to end the war continue to move toward reality in the wake of Donald Trump’s election win. 

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Russian President Vladmir Putin are planning to hold their first phone call in almost two years on Friday. 

Bloomberg was the first to report the development, citing several sources, and highlights the uncertainty felt in Europe concerning Ukraine policy over Trump’s return to the White House. “Germany is Ukraine’s second-biggest supporter after the US and has pledged billions of euros in additional aid,” it notes.

Scholz first announced Sunday his desire to speak to Putin “soon” about achieving peace in Ukraine, bringing the war to an end. “Yes, I decided to talk to the president of Russia at the right time. But I’m a responsible politician, I don’t do it alone,” Scholz told a German broadcaster.

The timing of the German leader’s words suggest Trump being in the White House provides the nudge to finally get serious about diplomacy and negotiations with Moscow:

Scholz spoke with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Sunday, with the German chancellor’s spokesman saying the two discussed working “toward a return to peace in Europe.”

The last phone call between Putin and Scholz was all the way back in December 2022. Scholz made the call to urge that Russian troops leave Ukraine and return home, and there’s been radio silence between the two throughout the war.

Since then, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has insisted that Putin was “no longer even prepared” to speak with the chancellor, amid Berlin ramping up is military support for Ukraine and drastically expanding its defense budget, reversing a posture of historic neutrality.

France’s Macron had been the only European leader to hold semi-regular contact with Putin throughout the opening months of the war, but he came under severe criticism from some corners of Europe for doing so.

But the drastic political change in Washington is clearly changing the mood in war-weary Europe as well. Now, even Ukraine is getting the memo – that there’s about to be a different track.

“Ukrainian officials have said for months that they would not cede territory occupied by Russia in any peace settlement. Now, as Ukraine contemplates an accelerated timetable for negotiations pushed by President-elect Donald J. Trump, it is putting at least as much importance on obtaining security guarantees as on where an eventual cease-fire line might fall,” NY Times wrote Thursday.

https://embed.polymarket.com/market.html?market=trump-wins-ends-ukraine-war-in-90-days&features=volume&theme=light

“The territorial question is extremely important, but it’s still the second question,” one Ukrainian official told the Times. “The first question is security guarantees.”

Trump’s team has been talking about pressuring Kiev to halt aspirations to join NATO for twenty years. It would likely be on that basis that Ukraine will seek pledges from Western partners for protection in the event Moscow breaks any potential deal.

6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE

Global Diabetes Cases Are Climbing

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 02:45 AM

According to the International Diabetes Federation, 537 million people between the ages of 20 and 79 suffered from diabetes worldwide in 2021. This represents 10.5 percent of the world population in this age group.

As Statista’s Anna Fleck details below, the total number of adults with the disease is projected to increase to 787 million (12.2 percent of the global population) by 2045.

You will find more infographics at Statista

The regions with the highest estimated numbers of adults suffering from the disease are the West Pacific and South East Asia.

The African continent is expected to see the largest increase in the number of people living with the disease, with the International Diabetes Federation predicting a more than 130 percent increase in cases by 2045.

In Europe, just over 61 million adults were estimated to have diabetes in 2021, a figure that is expected to reach 69.2 million by 2045.

The International Federation highlights that globally, diabetes is now among the top ten causes of death, and represents a serious and growing challenge to public health.

GLOBAL ISSUES

MARK CRISPIN MILLER

DR PAUL ALEXANDER

I warned you about messenger RNA (Malone et al. mRNA technology vaccine), small interfering RNA, circular RNA, antisense RNA, self-amplifying RNA, CRISPR, CAS9, gene editing therapeutics etc.,

now FDA as reported by LIONESS of JUDAH (Frank Bergman) has given the green light to advance a new “self-amplifying” mRNA “vaccine” for “bird flu.”; for the fake fraud PCR-created avian bird flu

Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 15

READ IN APP

The mRNA LNP technology platform has proven to be ineffective and very harmful, deadly. By Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech, Bourla, Bancel, Malone, Sahin, Weissman et al.

So let me explain it this way, they are seeking to push on you a self-replicating Malone et al. mRNA gene vaccine that replicates itself, replicates the mRNA to make more spike protein, a self-replicating vaccine to spread itself, for a virus, a fake fraud PCR manufactured that does not spread person-to-person. Do you get that? A vaccine that spreads itself for a virus that to this date has zero evidence of any spread human to human and in fact has shown to be of no consequence to humans. That bad malevolent people itself may be ‘ginning’ this up in labs to drive fear and create another fake fraud non-pandemic using the fake fraud PCR. So that you can make Malone et al. richer mandated their mRNA vaccines.

‘FDA Advances Bill Gates’ ‘Replicon’ mRNA Bird Flu ‘Vaccine’

Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

Upgrade to paid

The Biden-Harris administration’s U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has given the green light to advance a new “self-amplifying” mRNA “vaccine” for “bird flu.”’

The new “vaccine” (“self-amplifying” mRNA “vaccine”) is being developed by Arcturus Therapeutics, a Bill Gates-funded company specializing in mRNA-based pharmaceuticals.

‘The Biden-Harris administration’s U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has given the green light to advance a new “self-amplifying” mRNA “vaccine” for “bird flu.”

The new “vaccine” is being developed by Arcturus Therapeutics, a Bill Gates-funded company specializing in mRNA-based pharmaceuticals.

On Monday, Arcturus quietly announced that the FDA approved the company’s Investigational New Drug (IND) application for its ARCT-2304 “vaccine.”

ARCT-2304 is a self-amplifying mRNA (sa-mRNA) injection targeting the H5N1 avian influenza “bird flu” virus.

The “self-amplifying” or “replicon” mRNA shots contain the equipment needed to make more of itself once it enters cells.’

Bottom line, by mRNA self-replicating, it can make more copies of itself and hence far more spike protein as part of the immune response, the spike protein itself being the dangerous deleterious aspect of coronaviruses.

___

You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow. 

Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.

If you wish to give a donation to help me, you can at:

Zelle:

sr7283@gmail.com

Or Ko-Fi

Ko-fi.com/drpauleliasalexander

SLAY NEWS

The latest reports from Slay News

Renowned Cardiologist Drops Bombshell: Covid ‘Vaccine’ Is a ‘Bioweapon’One of the world’s most revered medical experts has issued a warning to the public that Covid mRNA “vaccines” were created to “strict military criteria” to serve as a “bioweapon.”READ MORE

UK Regulator Reveals 13.7% of Covid-Vaxxed Suffered ‘Medically Serious’ Side EffectsThe UK government’s regulator has revealed that a study of official data found that 13.7% of people who received Covid “vaccines” suffered adverse events considered to be “medically serious.”READ MORE

Don Lemon & Jamie Lee Curtis Leave X to Protest TrumpFormer CNN anchor Don Lemon and Hollywood actress Jamie Lee Curtis have announced they plan to punish voters for choosing President Donald Trump to serve as their 47th POTUS.READ MORE

Alina Habba Rules Herself Out of Trump’s White House Press Secretary PickFirebrand attorney Alina Habba has announced that she has withdrawn her name from consideration as President Donald Trump’s White House press secretary.READ MORE

Illinois Democrat Crashes Car While Drunk Driving, Hurls Vile Insults at Arresting OfficerAn Illinois Democrat lawmaker has been arrested after crashing her car while allegedly drunk driving.READ MORE

Jack Smith & Special Counsel Team Will Resign Before Trump Takes OfficeSpecial Counsel Jack Smith and his staff are planning to resign before the inauguration of President Donald Trump in January.READ MORE

Democrat Sen Fetterman Voices Support for Trump’s Secretary of State Nominee Marco Rubio: ‘Strong Choice’Democrat Senator John Fetterman (D-PA) is breaking with his party once again.READ MORE

South Korean TV Star Song Jae-lim Found Dead at 39Young South Korean TV star Song Jae-lim has been found dead at his home in an apparent suicide, according to police.READ MORE

Republicans Officially Retain Control of House, Completing TrifectaRepublicans have officially won the battle to ratify their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.READ MORE

Trump & Biden Hold Cordial White House Meeting, Promise Smooth Transition: ‘Welcome Back’President Donald Trump returned to the White House today as he prepares to move back into the Oval Office in January.READ MORE

Whoopi Goldberg: Pete Hegseth ‘Clearly Does Not Know Anything About the Military’Whoopi Goldberg and her co-hosts on “The View” have launched a new smear attack against Pete Hegseth after the decorated combat veteran was selected as President Donald Trump’s incoming secretary of defense.READ MORE

TMZ Founder: ‘Every High-Profile Celebrity’ in Hollywood Is ‘In Panic’ over ‘Diddy Tapes’Harvey Levin, the founder of celebrity news outlet TMZ, has revealed that the evidence emerging in the case against Sean “Diddy” Combs has triggered “panic” in Hollywood.READ MORE

Republicans Vote to Elect John Thune as New Senate Majority LeaderSenate Minority Whip John Thune (R-SD) has won a secret ballot to replace Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) as the Republican leader in the upper chamber. READ MORE

EVOL NEWS

LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES

Meet the CNN-Baiting 27-Year-Old Frontrunner to Be Trump’s Press SecretaryShe’s been thrown off CNN for calling it a ‘hostile environment,’ reamed out journalists for negative coverage, and at the tender age of 27 is already a veteran of a Trump administration. Oh, and she’s a new mom. Now Karoline Leavitt is in the pole position to be tapped as Donald Trump’s White House press secretary after his election victory. …READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Reveals RFK Jr.’s Role in His AdministrationPresident-elect Donald Trump announced in a Thursday tweet that he will nominate Robert Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Kennedy originally made a run for the White House as a third party candidate but ended his campaign in August to endorse and join forces with Trump. The president-elect wrote that the “Make America Great and …READ THE FULL REPORT

Bucks County Dems VIOLATE law by voting to count illegal ballots mail-in ballotsDemocrat Bob Casey has lost the election in Pennsylvania to Senator Dave McCormick but he is refusing to concede. Instead, he’s triggering a recount even though he’s down by over 25k votes, which is nearly 1.5%. Today it’s being reported that Bucks County Democrats are ignoring both the law and a ruling by state Supreme Court by voting to count …READ THE FULL REPORT

Watch: Woman Ambushes Rubio But Gets Owned, Proves He’ll Be an Amazing Secretary of StateAs his Cabinet nominations have shown, President-elect Donald Trump plans a revolutionary assault on the sinister and unconstitutional deep state. Thus, when Trump supporters react to one particular nomination with tepid enthusiasm or even outright disappointment — as many did when a report surfaced earlier this week that Trump would pick Republican Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida as secretary of …READ THE FULL REPORT

Florida Takes ‘Swift Action’ Against FEMA After Discrimination Against Trump SupportersFlorida Attorney General Ashley Moody is suing Federal Emergency Management Agency officials alleging a conspiracy in which pro-Trump Florida hurricane victims were the objects of discrimination. Moody said she is taking “swift action” by filing a complaint that claims the civil rights of Trump supporters were violated, according to a news release on her website. The lawsuit seeks unspecified damages. …READ THE FULL REPORT

NEWS ADDICTS

Matt Gaetz Resigns ‘Effective Immediately’ After Trump AG Pick — DC Implodes in Full Blown PanicAccording to House Speaker Mike Johnson, Matt Gaetz has resigned from Congress, effective immediately.READ THE FULL REPORT

Truth Exposed Behind Kamala Harris’s Refusal to Do Joe Rogan InterviewPodcast legend Joe Rogan recently shed light on what happened behind the scenes as his camp tried to make an interview with then-Democrat presidential nominee Kamala Harris happen shortly before Election Day, only to have her back out due to an alleged “scheduling” conflict.READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Announces Matt Gaetz Will Be His Attorney GeneralMany did not see this coming.READ THE FULL REPORT

Melania Trump Speaks Out About Jill Biden — ‘She Referred to My Husband as Evil and a Liar’Returning First Lady Melania Trump slammed Jill Biden in an interview with a French news outlet.The interview went viral after news broke that she would not meet the current First Lady during her husband’s trip to the White House. Mrs.Trump revealed that Jill Biden called her after the assassination attempt on Donald J. Trump in October but wonders if her …READ THE FULL REPORT

Trump Taps Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National IntelligencePresident-elect Donald Trump has selected former Congresswoman and Lieutenant Colonel Tulsi Gabbard as the Director of National Intelligence. Gabbard broke with Democrats to endorse Trump in his 2024 presidential run in August. Tulsi Gabbard should be President Trump’s Secretary of State #TulsiForSOS pic.twitter.com/Olxl49n428 — Ashley Nicole (@antiwarmisfit) November 10, 2024 Here’s Trump’s full statement: I am pleased to announce that …READ THE FULL REPORT

MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK

END

8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//

CANADA

Canadian teenagers arrested for plans to bomb Ottawa Jewish community

One of the boys was in possession of acetone, oxidizer and metal ball bearings.

By MATHILDA HELLERNOVEMBER 14, 2024 22:44

https://trinitymedia.ai/player/trinity-player.php?language=en&pageURL=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.jpost.com%2Finternational%2Fislamic-terrorism%2Farticle-829211&unitId=2900003088&userId=1938e01a-2e38-4f76-9d42-6dd0304d8a0a&isLegacyBrowser=false&isPartitioningSupport=1&version=20241114_225eea93a0f895c4b9661c69e2549a79309125bd&useBunnyCDN=0&themeId=140&unitType=tts-player

Two teenagers from Ottawa plotted to bomb a pro-Israel rally in Canada, before they were arrested by the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, according to Global News this week.

The boys were arrested in December and February over a terror plot targeting Ottawa’s Jewish community.

“They are alleged to have formed a plan last fall to violently attack Jewish persons in Ottawa, possibly through the detonation of an explosive device at a pro-Israel rally,” Global News stated, citing the Department of Justice.

According to Global News, one of the boys was in possession of acetone, oxidizer and metal ball bearings. These are often used to construct bombs.

Global News quoted Canada’s Integrated Terrorism Assessment Center as saying that the plot was linked to ISIS, but was likely “accelerated” following Hamas’s massacre of October 7.

“Although radicalization of these individuals reportedly began prior to the October 2023 Hamas attack, at least one of the individuals was reportedly in contact with DAESH overseas and the arrests occurred during a period of DAESH calls to violence in response to the conflict.”

Shimon Koffler Fogel, President and CEO of The Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs (CIJA), told Global News that the news “doesn’t come as a surprise.”

“And I think it’s consistent with what we have seen across the country, where the violent and radicalized protests that have manifested themselves on our streets are losing all constraints in terms of how far they are prepared to go in order to advance their position.”

Officials concerned over public safety

Rachel Dancho, the Shadow Minister for Public Affairs, along with other Canadian MPs, wrote a joint letter to the chair of the standing committee on public safety calling for a recall of the committee “to launch an investigation to is most recent foiled terror attack.”

“The government must take the rise in antisemitic violence seriously,” she said.

---

---

Deborah Lyons, the special envoy for combating antisemitism, called the news “shocking but not surprising.”

“Incitement needs to be taken seriously, political leaders need to take a clear stand, and the gaslighting of Jews about antisemitism they are facing, including the glorification of terrorism, must stop.”

END

YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS FRIDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING

EURO VS USA DOLLAR:  1.0573 UP 0.0044

USA/ YEN 155.31 DOWN 1.160 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN  STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//

GBP/USA 1.2679 UP 0.0012

USA/CAN DOLLAR:  1.4042 DOWN 0.0019 (CDN DOLLAR UP 19 BASIS PTS)

 Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED DOWN 49.11 PTS OR 1.45%

 Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 9.73 PTS OR 0.05%

AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.70%

 // EUROPEAN BOURSE:     ALL GREEN

Trading from Europe and ASIA

I) EUROPEAN BOURSES:  ALL GREEN

2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 9.43 PTS OR 0.06%

/SHANGHAI CLOSED DOWN 49.11 PTS OR 1.45%

AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .70%

(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 107.21 PTS OR 0.28%

INDIA’S SENSEX  IN THE RED

Gold very early morning trading: 2568.20

silver:$30.57

USA dollar index early FRIDAY  morning: 106.42 DOWN 18 BASIS POINTS FROM  THURSDAY’s CLOSE.

FRIDAY  MORNING NUMBERS ENDS

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And now your closing  FRIDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM

Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.783% DOWN 2 in basis point(s) yield

JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.063% UP 0 AND 9/ 10   BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/

SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.054 DOWN 1 in basis points yield

ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.556 DOWN 2 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.350 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS

END

IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES :   FRIDAY  

Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM

Euro/USA 1.0547 UP .0018 OR 18 basis points

USA/Japan: 154.72 DOWN 1.84 OR YEN IS UP 184 BASIS PTS//

Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5280 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //

Canadian dollar DOWN 21 OR 21 BASIS pts  to 1.4081

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

The USA/Yuan,  CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.2328 (ON SHORE)  

THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE:    (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2385)

TURKISH LIRA:  34.42 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//

the 10 yr Japanese bond yield  at +1.063

Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 5 in basis points from TUESDAY at  4.467% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)

 USA 30 yr bond yield  4.637 UP 5 in basis points  /11:00 AM

USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.311 UP 2  BASIS PTS.

GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2564.90

SILVER AT 11;00: 30.32

Your  11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: FRIDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//

London: CLOSED DOWN 7.58 PTS OR 0.09%

German Dax :  CLOSED DOWN 52.89 OR 0.27%

Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 42.17 PTS OR 0.51%

Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 111/80 OR 0.97%

Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 166.37 OR 0.48%

WTI Oil price  67.39 12 EST/

Brent Oil:  70.98 12:00 EST

USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE ///   AT:  100 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND  45/100      

GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3530 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.

UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5280 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS

CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.297 DOWN 0 BASIS PTS.

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.148 UP 1

CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM

Euro vs USA 1.0522 DOWN 0.0007 OR 7 BASIS POINTS

British Pound: 1.2603 DOWN 0.0063 OR 63 basis pts

BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD:  4.4700 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS//

JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.063

USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.37 DOWN 2.11 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR

USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4097 UP 0.0036 CDN dollar UP 36 BASIS PTS

West Texas intermediate oil: 65.98

Brent OIL:  71

USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.4421

USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 4.608%

USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 3 PTS AT  4.305

CDN 10 YR RATE 3.297 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS

CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.123 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS

USA dollar index: 106.73 UP 13 BASIS POINTS

USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.44 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/

USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE:  100.00 DOWN 0 AND  10/100 roubles

GOLD  2,562.65 3:30 PM

SILVER: 30.25 3:30 PM

DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 305.87 PTS OR 0.70%

NASDAQ DOWN 506.73 PTS OR 2.42%

VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.40 UP 2.09 PTS OR 14.61%

GLD: $236.59 DOWN 0.42 OR 0.18%

SLV/ $27,57 DOWN 0.24 OR 0.86%

TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:DOWN 171,84 PTS OR 0.69%

end

USA AFFAIRS

USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM

Big-Tech & Bullion Battered, Bitcoin Bid As ‘Goldilocks’ Narrative Collapses

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 04:00 PM

‘Good news’ was definitely ‘bad news’ this week as US macro data generally surprised positively…

Source: Bloomberg

…with both growth and inflation surprises soaring…

Source: Bloomberg

Not exactly the kind of data that supports a dovish Fed and the market has notably reduced its expectations for rate-cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the ‘Trump Trade’ actually survived pretty well this week (Republican policy basket vs Democratic policy basket)…

Source: Bloomberg

But, Powell’s comments were a giant rug-pull for the market over all with all the US majors having a horrible week…

…Nasdaq’s worst week in the last ten…

The Nasdaq puked back to the same level it was at the last OpEx…

Energy and Financials were the only sectors to end the week green while tech and healthcare were clubbed like a baby seal…

Source: Bloomberg

Mega-Cap Tech stock have erased all the post-election gains…

Source: Bloomberg

Cyclicals remain well bid against Defensives still too…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Most Shorted’ stocks puked hard this week – the worst week since early August as last week’s short-squeeze ran out of ammo…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all higher on the week led by the long-end, but trading was very volatile…

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield touched 4.50% at the highs today and reversed – the first time it has reached that level since May 2024…

Source: Bloomberg

It wasn’t just bonds and stocks that were hit, gold suffered its worst week since Jun 2021, falling back to two-month lows…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied for the seventh straight week top its highest since Nov 2022…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin had another biog week – the best two-week run since March – hitting new record highs and holding above $91,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin is also nearing a record high in terms of gold too…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude oil prices tumbled on the week back to post-Israel-Iran ‘optics’ battle lows…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, here’s why The Fed is fucked… With The Fed funds rate still at 4.75% and the trajectory of cuts diminishing rapidly, US financial conditions are basically as ‘loose’ as they were before the rate-0hiking cycle started…

Source: Bloomberg

‘Animal Spirits’ and re-inflation imminent – ‘Proper fucked’…

Secure your wealth 

MORNING TRADING

II USA DATA

HUGE DISAPPOINTMENT

US Retail Sales ‘Control Group’ Unexpectedly Tumbled In October After Huge ‘Seasonal Adjustment’

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 08:39 AM

If the omniscient chaps at BofA are right, the soft landing narrative is about to crash as they forecast a well below consensus tumble in retail sales this morning…

Source: BofA

…but notably this is mainly due to seasonals, apparently. Seasonal adjustments are likely to impact the October retail sales report. The Census Bureau’s projected seasonal factor (SF) for October 2024 is considerably less favorable than the October 2023 SF. Meanwhile, the October SF in the BAC card data is little changed from last year.

Source: BofA

So, given all that, what happened!?

Well, a lot!

• The headline retail sales print beat expectations rising 0.4% (+0.3% exp).
• Core retail sales (ex-autos and gas) disappointed, rising just 0.1% (+0.3% exp).
• But the Control Group – which is used for GDP calculations – tumbled 0.1% MoM (+0.3% exp).

BUT – the disappointments are likely driven by major upward revisions to the prior month

• Headline September revised up from +0.4% MoM to +0.8% MoM.
• Core revised up from +0.7% to +1.2% MoM.
• Control Group revised up from +0.7% MoM to +1.2% MoM.

Source: Bloomberg

The driver of the headline beat was all cars and food…

Core retail sales growth slowed on a YoY basis…

Source: Bloomberg

On a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, retail sales jumped 6.8% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

A big outlier of an adjustment for an October… it’s almost as if they wanted to make the numbers look bad on purpose…

This is odd: Census Bureau used a surprisingly weak – and a big negative outlier – seasonal adjustment factor for retail sales. If comparable adj factor had been used as prior Octobers, retail sales would have been a 1% increase pic.twitter.com/TbtKyyNQop

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 15, 2024

The Control Group data is ‘noisy’ – September was revised up to its strongest MoM jump since Jan 2023 (but this was the second monthly decline in nominal retail sales in three months)…

Source: Bloomberg

A real Goldilocks of a data set there – hot headline, cool core, ugly control group – take your pick, dove or hawk!

END

EMPIRE/ mfg index contracted in Oct

(zerohedge)

New York Businesses Love Trump, But US Manufacturing Contracted In October

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 09:30 AM

The Empire State Fed Manufacturing Survey of general business conditions exploded higher in November. The headline general business conditions index shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years. New orders and shipments rose substantially

Source: Bloomberg

That is the second largest MoM jump in the survey’s sentiment in history (beaten only by the massive stimmies in June 2020 of the COVID lockdowns)…

Source: Bloomberg

“Manufacturing activity grew strongly in New York State in November, with firms reporting sharp increases in new orders and shipments. Price increases remained steady and modest while firms remained optimistic about future conditions.”

~Richard Deitz, Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed

But, while New York businesses seem to love Trump (we don’t know when the survey was taken but still, it’s a funny move to ascribe to a business-unfriendly Democrat win?), US Industrial Production declined 0.3% MoM in October (-0.4% exp) and was revised lower for September

Source: Bloomberg

…and Manufacturing contracted for the second straight month (4th of the last 5)…

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that September’s Industrial Production was revised lower – the ninth downward monthly revision in the last ten months…

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, capacity utilization tumbled to just 77.1% – its lowest since April 2021…

Source: Bloomberg

A bone for the doves!

III USA ECONOMIC NEWS

RFK Jr., who mused COVID was designed to spare Ashkenazi Jews, tapped to head HHS

Trump says he’s ‘thrilled’ to nominate the Kennedy family scion, a rabid anti-vaxxer who has compared vaccine mandates to the Holocaust, to head vast US federal health bureaucracy

By Andrew LapinToday, 1:57 am

FILE – Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. speaks before Donald Trump at a campaign event, September 27, 2024 in Walker, Michigan. (AP Photo/Carlos Osorio)

JTA — Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist and onetime presidential candidate who has compared vaccine mandates to the Holocaust and mused that the COVID-19 pandemic was engineered to spare Ashkenazi Jews, is President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee to lead the Department of Health and Human Services.

Trump announced his pick for the Cabinet position on Truth Social, his social network, on Thursday afternoon, saying he was “thrilled” to nominate Kennedy to lead the department.

“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump wrote. “Mr. Kennedy will restore these Agencies to the traditions of Gold Standard Scientific Research, and beacons of Transparency, to end the Chronic Disease epidemic, and to Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

The nomination cemented the unlikely alliance between Trump and the scion of Democratic Party royalty, who suspended his third-party campaign to endorse the Republican this summer. Shortly before the election, Trump had assured him that, if elected, he would let the longtime vaccine skeptic “go wild on health.” In addition to his anti-vaccine views, Kennedy has also floated removing fluoride, which has dental health benefits, from drinking water.

Among the areas that would be under Kennedy’s purview at the department: the Food and Drug Administration; Medicare and Medicaid; the National Institutes of Health; the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; agencies dealing with substance abuse, mental health and toxic substances; and the office of US Surgeon General.

Kennedy’s views on health, in addition to lying far outside the mainstream scientific consensus, have also overlapped with antisemitic rhetoric in the past. Last year he baselessly claimed that COVID had been “ethnically targeted” to avoid “Ashkenazic Jews and Chinese.” During a 2022 anti-vaccine rally, he declared, “Even in Hitler’s Germany, you could cross the Alps into Switzerland, you could hide in the attic like Anne Frank did” — a remark he later apologized for. He also has a history of using the word “holocaust” to refer to vaccine policies.

Through it all, Kennedy has steadfastly denied all charges of antisemitism, including in an appearance before Congress. In July, he spoke at an event hosted by Rabbi Shmuley Boteach, the author and conservative activist. He is ardently pro-Israel — his father Robert F. Kennedy was murdered amid the 1968 Democratic presidential primaries by a Palestinian from Jordan over his support of Israel — and recently defended Rabbi Menachem Mendel Schneerson, the late leader of the Chabad Hasidic movement, from attacks leveled by far-right commentator Candace Owens.

Presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at an event with Rabbi Shmuley Boteach in New York on July 25, 2023. (Jackie Hajdenberg/ JTA)

Some prominent Jews have declared themselves in Kennedy’s corner. After Thursday’s nomination announcement, he gained another one: Jared Polis, the Democratic governor of Colorado.

“I’m excited by the news that the President-Elect will appoint Robert Kennedy Jr.,” Polis wrote on social media, saying Kennedy had “helped us defeat vaccine mandates in Colorado in 2019.” Polis outlined several health-related policy positions he said he agreed with Kennedy on, including reforming federal nutrition standards, curbing pesticide usage and capping international drug prices.

Polis concluded, “He will face strong special interest opposition on these, but I look forward to partnering with him to truly make American healthy again and I hope that we can finally make progress on these important issues.”

(In August, Polis had criticized Kennedy, suggesting that he would be “bringing back Measles and bringing back Polio.”)

Kennedy joins other fringe figures whom Trump has announced for top-level posts, including far-right Representative Matt Gaetz — who has his own history of antisemitic remarks — for attorney general and Fox News commentator Pete Hegseth for secretary of defense.

Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.

END

LOS ANGELES

what an idiot!

Los Angeles Mayor Pushes For Official Sanctuary City Status Before Trump Assumes Office

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 06:30 AM

Authored by Tom Ozimek via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said on Monday that her city doesn’t have a law officially designating it as a “sanctuary” for illegal immigrants and that this should be changed quickly before President-elect Donald Trump assumes office.

Trump has vowed to carry out mass deportations of illegal immigrants and said he would push Congress to adopt legislation outlawing sanctuary cities, which enact policies that shield illegal immigrants from federal immigration authorities.

In a Nov. 11 interview on KNX News, a local radio station, Bass said past policies related to the status of Los Angeles as a sanctuary were never codified into law. She pledged to push for a City Council vote that would formally designate Los Angeles as a sanctuary city before the end of the year.

“I imagine that the council will be voting on sanctuary cities hopefully very, very soon,” she told the outlet. “We will stand with the immigrant community and whatever policy they put forward, we will make sure that people in Los Angeles are not hurt and families are not separated.”

The City Council approved a motion in July 2023 calling on various city departments to take steps for Los Angeles to formally become a sanctuary city, which would prohibit city cooperation with federal immigration authorities.

Later, in September 2024, several City Council members introduced a motion for a new sanctuary city law to legally codify Los Angeles’ status as a sanctuary city. The law has not yet returned to the council for a vote.

In addition to advocating for the City Council to finalize and enact the law before Trump assumes office, Bass also expressed doubt that the president-elect’s pledge to deport millions of illegal immigrants could be implemented.

Trump, who won the race for the White House vowing a vast crackdown on illegal immigration, said last week that his incoming administration has “no choice” but to press ahead with the deportations, regardless of the cost.

“It’s not a question of a price tag,” Trump told NBC News on Nov. 8, adding that “really, we have no choice.”

“When people have [been] killed and murdered, when drug lords have destroyed countries,“ Trump continued. ”And now they’re going to go back to those countries because they’re not staying here. There is no price tag.”

It’s unclear how many illegal immigrants there are in the United States, with estimates ranging from around 10 million to more than 20 million and beyond. American Immigration Council, an immigrant advocacy group, recently estimated that the cost of deporting 13 million immigrants residing in the United States illegally could total $968 billion over a little more than a decade.

Trump recently tapped Tom Homan, former acting director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), to serve as the incoming administration’s border czar in charge of mass deportations. Homan said in an October interview that the scale of the deportations would depend on the available budget, detention space, and officers assigned to the project. After Trump nominated Homan to oversee border security, the former acting ICE chief said that the effort would prioritize the removal of criminals and gang members who are in the country unlawfully.

In the meantime, Homan urged other illegal immigrants to self-deport, saying it’s just a matter of time before they’re caught and removed from the country.

“Criminals and gang members get no grace period,” Homan told Fox News on Nov. 11. “While we’re out prioritizing the public safety threats and national security threats, if you want to self-deport, you should self-deport because, again, we know who you are, and we’re going to come and find you.”

Trump has also vowed to use federal power against sanctuary cities. During a campaign speech in North Carolina at the end of September, Trump said he would push Congress to pass a law banning sanctuary cities nationwide.

In 2017, Trump signed an executive order that called on federal agencies to withhold funds from sanctuary jurisdictions. The order made federal money to state and local governments conditional upon their giving immigration officials access to their jails and advance notice when illegal immigrants were being released from custody.

Shortly after taking office, President Joe Biden rescinded Trump’s executive order.

end

TENNESSEE

Tennessee Official Warns: Venezuelan Gangsters “Back In All Of Our Major Cities” 

Thursday, Nov 14, 2024 – 11:25 PM

The American people are expressing joy about President-elect Trump’s selection of Tom Homan as the incoming “border czar” to combat Biden-Harris’ illegal alien invasion at the open southern border, which has been linked to thousands of armed Venezuela prison gang Tren de Aragua members storming communities nationwide.

Tennessee Bureau of Investigation Director David Rausch is the latest official to warn about TdA members taking over his cities. He said these illegal alien criminals have been spotted in all major cities in Tennessee. 

Local media outlet WVLT News quoted Rausch, who warned that TdA members have been involved in human trafficking within the state. 

“They are back in all of our major cities. They are running human trafficking operations, and that’s where they start,” said Rausch.

Rausch told Governor Bill Lee on Tuesday that the foreign prison gang was active across the state in 2023, but after a number of arrests, activity slumped. However, he said, in just the past few months, TdA activity has surged once again. 

The TBI director said TdA members were also involved in organized retail theft and drug crimes within the state. 

“They will not hesitate to attack their opponents in public or in broad daylight,” Rausch warned. 

A recently leaked US Army North Division report showed an estimated 5,000 TdA members running amok nationwide. 

TdA members have caused chaos in Aurora, Colorado to Texas to New York.

These disastrous globalist policies pushed by the far-left Biden-Harris admin neglected to uphold national security for citizens while ten-plus million unvetted illegal aliens stormed the nation. 

Tennessee voters shifted toward Trump in last week’s presidential election, signaling frustration with the globalist in the White House.

Months ago, Homan had a message to the illegals…

https://twitter.com/i/status/1855831846334136587

The restoration of national security is only months away. 

END

NEW YORK

Mortgage rates top 7% as Manhattan apartment rents climb! Inflation will not go away

(zerohedge)

Manhattan Apartment Rents Climb To Summer Highs As Mortgage Rates Top 7%

Thursday, Nov 14, 2024 – 10:35 PM

Prospective homebuyers in Manhattan were sidelined last month as the rate on a 30-year mortgage topped 7%. As a result, rents in the borough rose to three-month highs due to sliding housing affordability.

Bloomberg cited new data from brokerage Douglas Elliman Real Estate and appraiser Miller Samuel that showed the median Manhattan apartment rent climbed 2.4% from a year earlier to $4,295. This was the first annual gain since April.

In other surrounding boroughs, new leases signed in Brooklyn last month averaged around $3,600, up 3.2% from a year earlier. In northwest Queens, median rents were up nearly 5% to $3,350.

In recent weeks, the US 10-year Treasury bond yield, which lenders use as a guide to price home loans, jumped in anticipation of a Trump win. Yields soared even after the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate. This is mostly because traders forecasted elevated inflation under the Trump administration. 

Jonathan Miller, president of Miller Samuel, noted that lower mortgage rates lured some renters to purchase homes before the presidential election. However, he noted that rents started to re-accelerate as soon as mortgage rates bottomed in late September and surged through October. He added that a 30-year mortgage rate over 7% has pressured rents higher. 

“Rents tend to follow mortgage rates,” Miller said, adding, “The higher the mortgage rate, the higher rent.”

Miller said newly signed leases jumped 24% last month compared to one year ago. He noted that higher rates have sparked a surge in activity this fall. 

“Mortgage rates still aren’t coming down,” Miller said, pointing out, “Economic policy would not seem to suggest that mortgage rates will fall significantly. If anything, rents will stay where they are, or rise, moving forward.”

END

(Mises)

Totalitarianism Begins With A Denial Of Economics

Friday, Nov 15, 2024 – 05:00 AM

Authored by Michael Njuko via The Mises Institute,

In the history of the social sciences, no other field of study has attracted so great a level of hostility as the science of economics. Since the inception of the science, the onslaught against it has been on the rise, extending across individuals and groups. And the outlook for a favorable reception of the science is bleak, given that a significant number of people are incapable of following through the extended chains of reasoning required for comprehending economic arguments.

Economics takes ends and goals of action as a given and—in matters of value judgments—it assumes neutrality (i.e., non-normativity), which is characteristic of a science. However, questions of suitability of means and various policies adopted to attain chosen ends are not beyond the scope of economic analysis.

The “Dismal” Task of the Economist

The competent economist—when presented with a proposed plan of action—always asks: Is the means adopted suitable for the attainment of the end in view? He critically analyzes the means in question and declares their fitness or unfitness on the basis of logical demonstrations that are unassailable and apodictly true. This peculiar task of the economist is often misapprehended as an expression of his value judgments and an attempt to frustrate the attainment of ends chosen. Thus, the economist is often met with disapproval.

More significant in the history of the science are the several attempts to discredit the economists through a denial of economics as a universally-valid science, applicable for all peoples, times, and places. This is a pernicious attempt because the social, political, and economic consequences tend to be disastrously far-reaching. This article attempts to establish a connection between a denial of economics and the emergence of totalitarianism.

Historicism as a Precursor of Totalitarianism 

Historicism was one of such concerted attempts at denying the universal validity of the body of economic theorems. The historicists advanced the view that economic theories are not valid for all peoples, places, and times; and thus, are only relevant to the specific historical conditions of their authors. The German Historical School’s rejection of the free trade theories, propounded by the classical economists, was not on grounds of inherent inadequacies in these theories—given that they never unmasked any logical errors as to the untenability of these theories—but motivated by ideological pre-possessions. Mises puts it very succinctly in Epistemological Problems of Economics: 

The historian must never forget that the most momentous occurrence in the history of the last hundred years, the attack launched against the universally valid science of human action and its hitherto best developed branch, economics, was motivated from the very beginning not by scientific ideas but by political considerations.

Historicism is bound to lead to some form of logical relativism, and it is not surprising that the doctrine of racial polylogism gained a general acceptance among many Germans in the early twentieth century. In order to invalidate the relevance of a theory on grounds of historical or racial origins of the author, one has to proceed with the indefensible assumption of differences in the logical character of the human mind amongst different peoples and within the same people at different historical epochs. But in fact, there is no scientific evidence as to the existence of these differences in the logical structure of the human mind. Thus the historicists’ arguments against the universal validity of economic theory are unfounded.

The social, economic, and political significance of a denial of economics would also imply the denial of insights from economics about the preservation of society—concerted action in voluntary cooperation. Economic theory asserts that there is greater productivity to be obtained from social organization under the division of labor than would be obtained in individual self-sufficiency. The Ricardian Law of Association explains the tendency of humans to intensify cooperation given a rightly-understood interest in better satisfying wants under the social order of the division of labor. While there are many ways for people to coexist in the world, there are fewer ways for them to coexist peacefully and prosperously. This is the central lesson of classical economics about human society.

Historicism’s denial of the universal validity of these theories on non-logical grounds betrays a prejudice for policies aimed at attaining the alternative of autarkic self-sufficiency and the substitution of the social apparatus with coercion and compulsion. In fact, the Nazi totalitarian regime, whose intellectual precursor was German historicism, never relented in applying force to induce cooperation while simultaneously pursuing autarkic self-sufficiency by means of disastrous policies. Thus, German historicism, in denying the universal validity of economic theory and the general laws of human action as advanced by praxeology, played a causal role by creating a favorable intellectual climate for arbitrariness and the subsequent emergence of Nazi totalitarianism.

Marxism as Pseudo-Economics

Marxist socialism, on the other hand, denies the validity of economic theories on grounds of the “class origins” of the economists. Like historicism, it subscribes to a variant of polylogism in which it asserts the existence of a difference in the logical structure of mind for the respective social classes—even though Marx never defined what he meant by “class.” Consequently, for the Marxians, the science of economics becomes mere ideological expression of the class interest of the exploiting class—the bourgeoisie.

It is precisely the fact that Marxism rejects the essential teachings of economics in favor of utopian ideas which fail to achieve the ends sought wherever it was tried. The ultimate goals of Marxians—improvement in material and social conditions of its adherents—are no different from those of their liberal counterparts of the late eighteenth and early nineteenth centuries who enjoyed considerable improvements in standard of living; it is in the choices of means that they differ. But it is the unsuitability of the means adopted by the Marxians that always and everywhere frustrated the attainment of ends sought by Marxism.

Furthermore, as with the capitalist system, based on private ownership of the means of production, the pure socialist commonwealth must be faced with the problem of allocation of resources in view of satisfying the most urgent wants of its citizens. And in this regard, Mises, in his irrefutable criticism of the socialist commonwealth, exposes the impossibility of socialism. He argues that, given the absence of a price structure for factors of production, the problem of impracticality of economic calculation must emerge in a socialist community. The planner, without recourse to tools of economic calculation, would be lost amid the sea of economic possibilities.

That capitalism has succeeded in improving the lives of men wherever its institutions are left unhampered is because those societies recognize the validity of economic theory about the potential benefits of the free market. They did not adopt arbitrary policies that economists declared unfit for the ends they sought to attain. Thus, the horrors brought about by the series of abortive attempts to implement the utopian ideas of socialist thinkers are the logical consequences of a denial of economics.

The Middle-of-the-Road Policy Leads to Totalitarianism

The doctrine of interventionism wrongly conceives of a compatibility of the market and violent interventions by the state, between social cooperation and the apparatus of coercion and compulsion. It purports to be a third economic system—a compromise between capitalism and socialism. But, as the logical demonstrations of the economists show us over and over, interventionism, so-called middle-of-the-road policy, inevitably leads to socialism. Interventionism is, in fact, a denial of economics in that economics recognizes that interventions of any sort in the market tend to produce outcomes that—judged from the point of view of their initiators—are even more dissatisfactory than the previous problems that they pretend to fix.

Mises clearly remarks in his short book The Historical Setting of the Austrian School of Economics that “the worst illusion of our age is the superstitious confidence placed in panaceas, which—as the economists have irrefutably demonstrated—are contrary to purpose.” Interventionism, carried to its logical conclusion, is bound to lead to totalitarianism, given that the more its policies fail to produce the desired outcomes, the more the statesmen who wrongly believe in the appropriateness of interventionist measures find it necessary to employ the coercive state apparatus to compensate for their failures.

Economics and the Free-Market System

The science of economics is a rational science that recognizes the primacy of the laws of human society. Economics teaches that the market is a system of logically necessary relations brought about by the actions of individuals seeking to satisfy their most urgent wants. It teaches that any instance of coercion aimed at influencing the actions of individuals is disruptive to the market process. A denial of these teachings would inevitably lead to the state of affairs in which force becomes the only means of eliciting the cooperation of individuals in society.

IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and  PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM

end

iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES

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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/

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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON

VDH

VDH: The Fault, Dear Democrats, Is In Yourselves

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

“Men at some time are masters of their fates: The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves.”

– William Shakespeare, Julius Caesar

“They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing.”

– Often attributed to Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand

The Democratic election postmortem immediately descended into public blame-gaming – as expected. When Joe Biden was forced off the ticket in late July, the conspirators issued a party line that he was to be praised as a veritable George Washington — in the spirit of Washington’s farewell address of 1796 about why it was a good thing for the first president not to run for a third term.

So, we were lied to that Joe, the sitting President of the United States, was not forced out by Nancy Pelosi, the Obamas, George Clooney and the celebs, and the billionaire class. We instead were lectured that Biden, magnanimously as the neo-father of our country, selflessly bowed out to ensure Kamala Harris’s elevation as the nominee and, with it, a sure Democratic victory.

But now?

After the Democratic train wreck, half the party is suddenly damning George Washington Joe for sticking around too long, even though party grandees cooked up the scheme in the first place of nominating the cognitively challenged Biden in 2020 to shut out his radical (and supposedly unelectable) primary rivals.

Now that his successor Harris has bombed, in the leftist mind, Joe has gone from a Washingtonian Olympian to a veritable selfish Richard Nixon who clung to office far too long and supposedly ensured his party’s defeat.

Yet still, others now blame incumbent Vice President Kamala herself. The once “joyful” candidate, after the coup to remove Biden, was once praised to the skies as a “turn the page”/”move forward”/“change” candidate — only then to be damned as an insipid loser.

So, one postelection narrative was that Harris — we were told to recall — was always known as inept and thus originally picked as Joe Biden’s Spiro Agnew insurance policy, who would prevent his indictment, impeachment, or medical removal.

But never mind blaming either Biden or Harris or both.

The left cannot fault either a lack of funds; they raised a billion dollars more than Trump. Leftists also cannot complain about 95 percent favorable media coverage, supposedly worth billions of dollars in free advertising.

They cannot regret that they did not do everything imaginable to destroy the Trump monster — given they had impeached him twice and tried him as a private citizen. They cooked up the Russian collusion and laptop disinformation hoaxes, raided his home with a SWAT team, and unleashed five criminal and civil suits designed to bankrupt, demonize, and jail him. They tried to remove him from at least 16 state ballots and daily smeared him as a fascist, dictator, and Hitler — even as two would-be assassins tried to shoot him.

So, we are witnessing the rich Democrat-media fusion blame and fault everything but themselves. In truth, whether Biden or Harris ran — it never really mattered.

Even an open convention with a “moderate” veneer nominee like a Josh Shapiro would not have saved them. The fault was in themselves: a radical Democratic agenda actualized by Joe Biden, who will leave office with an approval rate under 40 percent, and two-thirds of the country believing the country was headed in the wrong direction under his tenure.

So, what lost the election for the Democrats? Both substance and style.

The proverbial people may have agreed that Trump was sometimes crude, but they knew in his prior four-year tenure that food, gas, rent, power, and insurance were affordable.

The border was finally secured. Trump did not welcome in 12 million unaudited illegal aliens.

Nor did he oversee a disastrous flight from Afghanistan or watch two theater-wide wars blow up Ukraine and the Middle East as a derelict America became irrelevant.

Boys did not spike volleyballs down upon the heads of girls nor did male boxers pound the brains of women.

Nor did teenage biological males shower with young girls.

Nor did the Trump tenure witness institutionalized anti-Semitism spreading throughout the nation’s elite campuses and onto the streets.

Nor did Republican party grandees obsess on race, promote reparations, demand unlimited abortions until the moment of birth, or trash fracking.

So, the message — not just the messengers — was toxic. But that said, the message was also delivered by a bicoastal elite, exuding hubris and superciliousness. This election, the left committed the two cardinal sins of American politics: one, never talk down to the American people as too stupid to appreciate the wisdom of their supposed elite betters; and two, never abandon the upwardly mobile aspirations and real struggles of the middle class.

Instead, during the campaign and after the election slaughter, Democratic grandees screamed against a supposedly racist, sexist, homophobic, nativist electorate — as if these critics were a mummified Hillary Clinton circa 2016 still pontificating about the deplorables and irredeemables or a calcified Obama lecturing on the pathologies of the clingers.

Indeed, the epitome of such hypocrisy was the late entrance of the now-plutocratic Obamas. The pair variously private jetted in from one of their four mansions to “save” Harris from her incompetent self by diagnosing the skeptics of her hard-left message as ignorant, illiberal, and suffering from Marxist false consciousness.

Thus, a week after the election, Democrats are still trapped in La La Land.

Blue-state governors now posture and brag that they will stop the newly elected Trump — but from what exactly? Will they refuse his tainted federal funds? Spit at him when they ask for disaster relief help? Declare blue America “sanctuary states” that will nullify federal law and not pay federal taxes?

What does California governor Gavin Newsom mean by calling to session the California legislature to “resist” Trump? Will he order another Steele dossier pee-pee tape? Another Hillary Clinton 2016 call to join La Résistance?

What does Illinois Governor Pritzker mean by warning Trump he will have to go through the ample governor to get to “his people?”

Coordinate more local and state prosecutors to resume where Fani Willis, Alvin Bragg, and Letitia James left off?

Mimic Madonna and threaten to blow up the White House?

Emulate Kamala Harris and warn weeks of violent protests that won’t and should not stop?

So how exactly is the elected president actually stripping away the rights of their liberal residents — three months before he even sets foot in office? And what might such illiberal or extralegal Trump efforts entail?

Find another Andrew McCabe to weaponize the FBI to go after his enemies?

Discover another Anthony Fauci to stealthily send American cash to a leaky Chinese virology lab run by the People’s Liberation Army?

Draft another Lois Lerner to politicize the IRS to deny left-wing groups nonprofit status?

Rehire James Comey to get the FBI and social media together to censor the news?

Maybe rehire Loretta Lynch or Merrick Garland to sic the Department of Justice on political enemies at school board meetings?

Bring back Confederate-style nullification of federal law and open the border?

Or are Trump’s threats likely to be more existential and cosmic — like packing the court to ensure another six conservative justices?

Or, as the right takes control of the Senate, will the damnable new conservative majority abolish the ancient filibuster?

Perhaps the left is worried that now that a vengeful Trump has handily won the popular vote, he will most likely remove the 237-year-old Electoral College by sidestepping the constitutional amendment process?

Or will a dastardly Trump bifurcate some blue states to ensure their red halves become two new states and with them four conservative senators?

In sum, the left will not recover by blaming the American people and the voters for their loss. Nor will they regain power by caricaturing the supposedly illiberal and unappreciative middle class.

Nor will they reboot by blustering that they are at war with a president before he takes office as if he was not just elected by a clear majority and an overwhelming electoral college vote.

Nor will they find salvation today by blaming the “messaging,” or tomorrow Kamala Harris, or next week Joe Biden — rather than looking in the mirror and acknowledging the fault, Dear Democrats, is “in ourselves.”

KING REPORT

The King Report November 15, 2024 Issue 7371

Independent View of the News

The October PPI Report was 0.1 more than expected for Core PPI metrics and y/y PPI.     PPI 0.2% m/m & 2.4% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 2.3% expected     Core PPI 0.3% m/m & 3.1% y/y; 0.2% m/m & 3.0% consensus   Inflation remains stubborn as wholesale prices accelerate after Fed rate cuts https://nypost.com/2024/11/14/business/inflation-remains-stubborn-as-wholesale-prices-accelerate/   Initial Jobless Claims 217k, 220k expected; Continuing Claims 1.873m as expected   Hokey government metrics (CPI, Core CPI, PPI, and Core PPI) show inflation quit receding in 2024 and is starting to turn higher.  2024 looks like 2020 for these metrics.  Inflation surged in 2021 and early 2022.   PPI, Core PPI, CPI, and Core CPI y/y – If 2020 = 2024, what ensues?   USZs traded modestly high when the Nikkei opened but they quickly fell to a low of 115 15/32 (-12/32) at 20:02 ET.   After a modest rebound, USZs traded sideways with a slight upward bias until they commenced a rally at 5:50 ET that took USZs to 116 9/32 at 8:28 ET.  USZs sank to 115 21/32 at 8:35 ET due to October PPI Report.   But someone wanted to aggressively own USZs.  Rabid buying took USZs to 116 23/32 at 9:38 ET.  After a retreat to 116 8/32 at 10:44 ET, ESZs zoomed to a new high of 116 26/32 at 11:22 ET.  There was no impact news.  Perhaps traders were covering shorts or getting long for PE Powell’s speech at 15:00 ET.   USZs hit a peak of 116 31/32 at 12:26 ET and then fell to 116 6/32 at 15:10 ET.   While USZs rallied robustly after the 8:30 ET release of the October PPI Report, ESZs sank.  This implies that aggressive defensive asset allocators were in the market.   ESZs hit a daily low of 5978.75 at 12:47 ET.  USZs peaked 11 minutes earlier.  ESZ rose to 5999.25 at 13:15 ET.  There was little enthusiasm to push ESZs above 6000; so, ESZs sank to 5979.25 at 13:57 ET.  The virtual double bottom inspired buying.  ESZs ran to 6000.50 at 14:53 ET.  No meaningful buying appeared with the modest breach of 6000; so, traders unloaded.  ESZs tumbled to 5972.00 at 15:07 ET.   ESZs and USZs both sank after 15:00 ET because PE Powell was slightly hawkish.   Fed’s Powell Says No Need to Hurry Rate Cuts with Economy Strong (election over): BBG 15:00 ET   PE Powell also say it will be a “bumpy path” to 2% inflation, and “we will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook (Trumpism), and the balance of risks.”  In another jab at Trump, Powell said Congress has oversight of the Fed.   The last-hour rally took ESZs to 5987.25 at 15:17 ET.  Pressuring from small traders holding expiring November calls induced late selling.  ESZs slid to 5968.75 at 15:49 ET and were 5976.00 at the close.   Positive aspects of previous session Bonds rallied sharply on relative valuation vs stocks and probably defensive asset allocation.   Negative aspects of previous session Stocks declined on valuations, pressure from expiring Nov. calls, and probable defensive asset allocation. PE Powell was a tad more hawkish than expected. There appears to be downward pressure on stocks from traders holding too many expiring Nov. calls. The S&P 500 Index traded below 6000 all session.   Ambiguous aspects of previous session Is the expected December rate cut off the table?   First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Down   Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5961.78 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5993.88; 5942.28   Trump selected Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be Secretary of Health & Human Services (HHS).   Fed Balance Sheet: -$27.191B on Loans -$28.437B; Reserves at the Fed: -$29.971B   There’s only one way Trump can fix Powell’s opposition at the Fed Federal Reserve Chairman Powell pretends he’s independent, but court cases prove that wrong     Powell is not only politically unwise to claim independence from presidential control, but he is also legally mistaken. Trump can fire Powell under the laws that created the Federal Reserve as well as under the Constitution. The legal question has two aspects, one statutory, the other constitutional…      In 2020, the head of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau also claimed independence from the president because Congress forbade his removal except “for cause.” In Seila Law v. CFPB, the court held the CFPB law unconstitutional and declared that the Constitution gave the president the power to remove the agency’s head. Chief Justice Roberts held that Article II must give the president control over any official who exercises such “significant executive power.” …      If Trump seeks to take Powell up on his provocation, he will win in court… https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-fed   Today is November option expiration.  Reports indicate that this is the largest November option expiration ever with almost $3 trillion of notional value expring.  This should put pressure on stocks.   When there has been a ginormous number of expiring calls, stocks have sagged on Thursday and Friday of expiry week because too many traders, particularly small retail traders, are long and need to sell before the call options turn into pumpkins.  Barring news, the November expiry should put a lid on stocks.   Expected economic data and Fed speakers: Oct Retail Sales 0.3% m/m, ex-Autos 0.3%, ex-Autos & Gas 0.3%; Oct Import Price Index -0.1% m/m & 0.3% y/y, Export Price Index -0.1% m/m & -1.7% y/y; Oct Industrial Production -0.3% m/m, Mfg. Production -0.5%, Capacity Utilization 77.1%; Sept Business Inventories 0.2%; Boston Fed Pres Collins 9 ET, NY Fed Pres Williams 13:15 ET   ESZs are -21.50; NQZs are -118.00; and USZs are -14/32 at 20:35 ET on fear of no Dec rate cut!   S&P Index 50-day MA: 5763; 100-day MA: 5635; 150-day MA: 5505; 200-day MA: 5406 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,359; 100-day MA: 41,268; 150-day MA: 40,441; 200-day MA: 40,054 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)   S&P 500 Index (5949.17 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5218.49 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5509.91 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5850.21 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are negative– a close above 5985.30 triggers a buy signal   J6 Shocker: Phone companies dispute FBI testimony on pipe bombs suspect, key lawmaker reveals Cellular carriers have told Congress they possess intact phone usage data from the vicinity where two pipe bombs were planted during the Jan. 6 incident, directly disputing FBI testimony that agents couldn’t identify a suspect because the phone data was corrupted, a key House chairman tells Just the News…  https://justthenews.com/government/security/hldcell-companies-refute-fbi-testimony-j6-pipe-bomber-investigation-loudermilk   Ex-federal prosecutor @shipwreckedcrew: DOJ, FBI, and DOD are the reasons why Trump wanted the promise of a recess.  The nominees are going to lay waste to the bureaucracies in those organizations and Trump wants to avoid a confirmation fight over those plans.   @charliekirk11: If you voted for Garland and won’t vote for Gaetz, you will face an immediate primary challenge.   @JackPosobiec: Here are all the Republicans who voted for Garland as AG (All the RINOs and DJT haters).  Why would they vote for Garland and not Matt Gaetz? https://t.co/1Pe9QC6Ywd   @DefiyantlyFree: Biden fired every single attorney in the DOJ when he started his term, installed Merrick Garland who protected him and his son for 4 years while relentlessly going after Trump, Trump’s attorneys, and Trump’s supporters.  Don’t worry, there’s nothing Matt Gaetz can do that would ever top that.              @elonmusk in response: Merrick Garland is not a good person   Article II, Section 3 of the US Constitution gives the President has the authority to adjourn Congress in the case of a disagreement between the House and Senate over the time of adjournment.    House Speaker Mike Johnson astoundingly was ordained Speaker of the House by unanimous GOP vote.  Trump endorsed Johnson and greased the way.  Trump has been stridently vocal about using recess appointments for his cabinet.  Speaker Johnson might adjourn the House.  If the Senate adjourns in concert, Trump can make his recess appointments that endure for the term of Congress (2 years).  If the Senate refuses to adjourn, DJT under the Article II, Section 3 of the Constitution can adjourn Congress.   Ex-ABC political director @MarkHalperin: Here is one factor that those who say the @mattgaetz  nomination is dead are not considering: Every Republican Senator has donors, friends, staffers, constituents, and (in some cases) kin who want something from the incoming Trump administration, especially jobs. You think that the Trump White House is going to help out any Senator who comes out against Gaetz?  That isn’t even Politics 101; that is Politics 1.   @nytimes: President-elect Donald Trump said he would name Todd Blanche, a defense lawyer in his criminal cases, as the No. 2 Justice Department official. (Justice for conspirators is coming!)   ABC NEWS: Trump nominates his former SEC chair, Jay Clayton, as U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York      President-elect Trump announces former Georgia Rep. Doug Collins for secretary of veterans affairs.   @JonathanTamari: (GOP Sen.) Ron Johnson was asked about the Gaetz nomination and responded by showing reporters a photo of Rachel Levine, the transgender Asst Sec. of Health.  He asked if reporters asked Democrats about her…   @Heritage: @VivekGRamaswamy: We must DISMANTLE the administrative state. Most of the rules that bind people in this country are written by bureaucrats from three-letter government agencies who were never elected. https://t.co/iwGuASvK8p   @EricLDaugh: New GOP Senate Majority Leader John Thune says it’s time to “check the bureaucratic machine” by “taking a HATCHET to the regulatory apparatus.” “Starting with the 1,000 Biden-Harris regulations that have cost Americans nearly $2 trillion.”     “I will work every day to serve my colleagues and to advance President Trump’s agenda.” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1857094779030413738   CSPAN’s @CraigCaplan: Thune (R-SD): “I plan to have regular meetings with Speaker Johnson and with the White House to ensure smooth coordination and a strong working relationship between the House, the Senate and the Administration as we work together to implement Pres. Trump’s agenda.”   Thune says Trump’s border plan is 1st up in rigorous priority list for new Congress: ‘Real work begins’  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/thune-says-trumps-border-plan-first-up-rigorous-priority-list-new-congress-real-work-begins   @EricLDaugh: President-elect Donald Trump praises new Senate Majority Leader John Thune: “Congratulations to Senator John Thune, the Newly Elected Senate Majority Leader. He moves quickly and will do an outstanding job.”   Kamala Harris aide reveals REAL reason why Joe Rogan interview never happened Because it would’ve upset her progressive staffers… (Obviously, Kamala was too craven to be POTUS!) https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14079991/kamala-harris-aide-joe-rogan-interview.html   Wis. union workers were served ‘insulting’ lunch — possibly made by ‘prisoners’ — as part of ‘pathetic’ Harris campaign pitch https://t.co/f4odMY4g0a   Elon Musk renews calls to defund NPR after controversial clip of CEO resurfaces Maher questioned the role truth plays in the industry as the then-CEO of Wikimedia. She took over as CEO of NPR in March of this year… Musk… “Should your tax dollars really be paying for an organization run by people who think the truth is a ‘distraction’?”… https://nypost.com/2024/11/13/media/elon-musk-renews-calls-to-defund-npr-after-controversial-clip-of-ceo-resurfaces/   ABC looks to bring in pro-Trump voices onto “The View” and other shows – NY Post   @MarioNawfal: EVEN DEM VOTERS DITCH SOROS’ SOFT-ON-CRIME DAs IN NATIONWIDE REVOLT – A stunning rebuke: Progressive DAs lost 13 of last week’s top 25 races, even in deep-blue strongholds.  In LA, George Gascón lost by 23 points despite Harris winning the county by 30.     San Francisco’s tough-on-crime DA crushed her progressive opponent two-to-one. California’s Prop 36, restoring tough penalties for drugs and theft, passed with historic 70% support…   Pentagon says there’s ‘no verifiable evidence’ of extraterrestrial technology, beings or activity https://www.foxnews.com/us/pentagon-says-no-verifiable-evidence-extraterrestrial-technology-beings-activity   There appears to be a cancer in the Pentagon with sedition on its mind According to CNN, Pentagon officials are trying to figure out how to block any orders Donald Trump might issue to protect the Southern border or remove from U.S. soil the millions of unvetted illegal aliens currently occupying the U.S… In the past seven decades, presidents have often called in the military:     1957: Dwight D. Eisenhower sent the Army’s 101st Airborne Division to desegregate Little Rock’s schools.     1962: JFK federalized Alabama’s National Guard to force Gov. George Wallace to admit two African-American students to the University of Alabama.     1965: LBJ used Alabama’s federalized National Guard to quell the Bloody Sunday protests in Montgomery, Alabama.     1967: LBJ called in the Army and National Guard to quell the Detroit riots.     1968: After MLK, Jr. was assassinated, Chicago’s Mayor Richard Daley approved calling in the Army when riots broke out. In D.C., 13,600 troops occupied the city to quell riots. National Guard troops were also deployed across Baltimore.     1970: Richard Nixon called the National Guard to New York City after U.S. postal workers went on strike.     1989: After Hurricane Hugo struck the U.S. Virgin Islands, George H. W. Bush called in the National Guard to stop looting.     1992: Reserve soldiers headed to Los Angeles after the Rodney King verdict sparked rioting.     2021: The National Guard occupied D.C. for Joe Biden’s inauguration… https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/11/there_appears_to_be_a_cancer_in_the_pentagon_with_sedition_on_its_mind.html#ixzz8rbl5xPgV   Federal court upends decades of environmental regulations A federal appeals court determined that the White House does not have the authority to issue binding environmental regulations under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), upending several decades of the practice… https://www.foxnews.com/politics/federal-court-upends-decades-environmental-regulations   Secret Service agent fired for taking ex-girlfriend to the Obamas’ Hawaii beach house for sex Koryeah Dwanyen revealed the lurid details between herself and an agent, whom she only named as ‘Dale,’ in her book ‘ Undercover Heartbreak: a Memoir of Trust and Trauma’… https://t.co/dplr1dCjCr   @TheBabylonBee: Democrats Warn Abolishing Department of Education Could Result in Kids Being Too Smart to Vote for Democrats https://buff.ly/4frnPeB

SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT

GREG HUNTER

SEE YOU THURSDAY