GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $13.00 TO $2627.20
SILVER PRICE UP $0.10 TO $31.16
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2630.90
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $31.22
Bitcoin morning price:$92,041 UP 368 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $93,131 UP 1458 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $3.80 TO $973.60
Palladium price; UP $26.95 TO $1036.55
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3672.20 UP 8.74 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2074.30 UP 13,,83 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,483.27 UP 17.83 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)
DONATE
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
EXCHANGE;
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,610.600000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/18/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 11/20/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
132 C SG AMERICAS 27
190 H BMO CAPITAL 46
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 27
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 3
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 65
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 1
661 C JP MORGAN 9
690 C ABN AMRO 1
737 C ADVANTAGE 5
TOTAL: 92 92
MONTH TO DATE: 2,662
JPMorgan stopped 09/92
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 92 NOTICES FOR 9200 OZ 0.2860 TONNES
total notices so far: 2662 contracts for 266,200 Oz (8.2799 tonnes)
FOR NOV
SILVER NOTICES: 14 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 70,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 896 for 4.480 million oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Click here if you wish to send a donation. I sincerely appreciate it as this site takes a lot of preparation
END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $13.00 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1,71 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER UP 10 CENTS AT THE SLV
MEGA HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY OUT OF THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 5.742 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV//THIS IS TOTALLY FRAUDULENT
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 477.572 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 513 CONTRACTS TO 143,683 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS HUGE SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.68 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 807 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.68 IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON MONDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND FINALLY FAILED YESTERDAY WITH SILVER’S RISE..
WE HAD A SMALL 90 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A MUCH HUGE 1000 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A STRONG SIZED 423 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT MONDAY.S COMEX SESSION.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX BUT THAT ENDED MONDAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON MONDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 1000 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.68) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS DESPITE HAVING A HUGE NET LOSS OF 807 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, THE NET LOSS IS DEFINITELY ATTRIBUTED TO THE HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION//MONDAY COMEX.
WE HAD A TINY 90 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 4.555 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 4.555 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ STRONG SIZED COMEX OI LOSS (ALL DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION)//SMALL SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1000 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A HUGE 384 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 13 DAYS, total 16,564 contracts: OR 82.820 MILLION OZ (1274 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 82.82 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 80.82 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 513 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.68 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//MONDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A SMALL EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 90 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 2.810 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE GUYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 4.555 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 423 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 1000 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE MONDAY COMEX SESSION THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT /THE HUGE TA.S. ISSUANCE DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON MONDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH HUGE GAIN IN PRICE MONDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE MONDAY NIGHT (1000) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 14 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.070 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3001 OI CONTRACTS TO 515,181 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A HUGE 646 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (3001 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $44.20 IN PRICE FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 11400 OZ QUEUE JUMP. BUT WE HAD ANOTHER OF THAT CRAZY ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS, FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DELIVERY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 10.8989 TONNES + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 14.0089 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 14.0089 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $44.20 IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A SMALL LOSS OF 866 OI CONTRACTS (2.693 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP OF 114,000 OZ)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A FAIR SIZED 2135 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 515,827
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 866 CONTRACTS WITH 3001 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A FAIR SIZED 2355 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 866 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A LARGE SIZED AND CRIMINAL 7745 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE MONDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS GREAT IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A SMALL SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (90 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 2355 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 866 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 11,400 OZ QUEUE JUMP BUT WE MUST ADD THE NEW AND CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS OF EX. FOR RISK ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE BY THE BUYER ASSUMES RISK FROM THE SELLER THAT THAT CONTRACT WOULD BE DELIVERED TO HIM. WHAT A JOKE!
//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 10.8989 TONNES + 3.11 TONES EX FOR RISK = 14.0089 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S PRICE WITH ZERO SUCCESS MONDAY WITH OUR HUGE $44.20 RISE. WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) FAIR SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) FAIR ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///LARGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 7745 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 82,058 CONTRACTS OF 8,205,800 OZ OR 255.23 TONNES IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 6312 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 13 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 255.23 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 255.23 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 7.18% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END UP WITH THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 255.23 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH/MAYBE A RECORD ISSUANCE MONTH//PREVIOUS RECORD ISSUANCE MARCH 2022 OF 409 TONNES.)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 513 CONTRACTS OI TO 143,683 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 6 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 90 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 90 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 90 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 423 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 90 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 423 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 2.115 MILLION OZ OCCURRED WITH OUR $0.68 GAIN IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
TUESDAY MORNING MONDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.66 PTS OR 0.44%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 87.06 PTS OR 0.44%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 193.58 OR 0.51%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.87%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2293 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2392// Oil DOWN TO 67.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 3001 CONTRACTS TO 515,181 DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $44.20 WITH RESPECT TO MONDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE MUCH HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A FAIR NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (2135).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING YESTERDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MASSIVE TA.S. LIQUIDATION.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT 197 AND 199 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED. THUS THE REASON FOR THE CONTINUAL RAIDING OF OUR PHYSICAL ANCIENT METAL OF KINGS LIKE YESTERDAY, AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING PRICE OF GOLD
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING, MONDAY
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A FAIR SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A FAIR SIZED 2135 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 4803 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 2135 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A SMALL SIZED TOTAL OF 866 CONTRACTS IN THAT 2135 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 3001 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS SMALL LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $44.20 MONDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER I AM SAD TO REPORT THAT THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF A GIANT 1,000 CONTRACTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR A BUYER IS TAKING THE RISK THAT THEY WILL DELIVER TO HIM 3.110 TONNES OF GOLD (311,000 OZ). WE WISH THE BUYER ALL THE LUCK IN THE WORLD.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, A EXTRA STRONG SIZED 7745 CONTRACTS, WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND ESPECIALLY DURING LAST WEEK’S CONTINUOUS RAIDS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (14.0089 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 10.8989 TONNES + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 14.0089 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A HUGE $44.20/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS EVEN THOUGH WE DID HAVE A SMALL LOSS IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WE DID HAVE A HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION MONDAY. WE ALSO HAD HUGE T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN FULL FORCE. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 2.693 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE SIZED QUEUE JUMP OF 114 CONTRACTS OR 11,400 OZ (0.3546 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD. MOSTLY LIKELY THIS IS THE FRBNY DESPERATELY TRYING TO EXTINGUISH ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL SHORT FALL OF 93 TONNES. HOWEVER WE MUST ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” OF 1000 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 311,000 OZ OR 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HERE THE BUYER OF THESE CONTRACTS ASSUMES THE RISK THAT WE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON BY THE SELLER
//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 10.8989 TONNES + 3.11 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR= 14.0089 TONNESES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 14.0089TONNES (WHICH FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $44.20
WE HAD 646 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 866 CONTRACTS OR 86600 OZ (2.693 TONNES)
confirmed volume MONDAY 255,690 contracts STRONG //// t.a.s. enhanced
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
NOV 19 NOV GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE NOV 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | 7195.469 OZ BRINKS ENHANCED BARS 18 LONDON GOOD DELIVERY BARS 64.302 OZ 2 KILOBARS TOTAL 725.977 OZ . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 92 notice(s) 9200 OZ 0.2861 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 842 contracts 84200 OZ 2.6185 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2662 notices 266200 oz 8.2799 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits nil oz
withdrawals: 2
i) out of Brinks enhanced: 7195.469 oz *18 london good delivery bars
ii) out of Brinks 64.302 oz (2 kilobars)
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 7,259.771 oz
adjustments: 1
manfra: 2121.966 oz customer to dealer
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 934 contracts having GAINED 98 contracts. We had 16 contracts served on MONDAY so we gained A HUGE 114 contracts as these guys underwent a HUGE SIZED queue jump of 11,400 oz (0.3546 TONNES OF GOLD) to which we add the 3.11 tonnes of exchange for risk delivery/PRIOR.
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 6540 CONTRACTS TO 220,740
JANUARY LOST 5 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 443
FEBRUARY GAINED 1341 CONTRACTS TO 210,796 .
We had 92 contracts filed for today representing 9200 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 92 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 9 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2662 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(934 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (92 x 100 oz per contract( equals 350,400 OZ OR 10.8989 TONNES.+ to which we add 3.11 tonnes of exchange for risk delivery//PRIOR //new totals 14.0089 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (2662 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (9034 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (92 x 100 oz which equals 350,400 oz (10.8989 TONNES) +3.11 tonnes (ex. for risk/PRIOR) = 14.0089
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 14.0089 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,627,498.745 oz 50.62 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,481,147.871 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,805,685.687/// 242.72tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,675,492.184 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,178,187 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 192.16 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 19. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE NOV 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 631,707,690oz Brinks CNT . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | 1,798,919.565 oz Asahi CNT HSBC |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 14 CONTRACT(S) (70,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 15 contracts (75,000oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 896 Contracts (4.480 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 3 customer deposits
i) Into Asahi 593,357.400 oz
ii) Into CNT 601,146.500 oz
iii) Into HSBC 604,415.645 oo
total customer deposits nil oz
We had 2 withdrawals
i) Out of Brinks 606,241.090 oz
ii) Out of CNT 25,466.600 oz
total withdrawal 631,707.690 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/309.988million or 43,22%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.457MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 309.988 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 29 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 4 CONTRACTS
WE HAD 1 NOTICE(S) FILED ON MONDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR 25,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY DECIDED TO LOOK FOR SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 2892 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 61,504 CONTRACTS
JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 24 CONTRACTS UP TO 1252
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 14 for 0.070 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON MONDAY 68,274 mega huge// t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 896x 5,000 oz = 4.480 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (29) and the number of notices served upon today (14)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month: 896 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(29) number of notices served upon today minus (14)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.555 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 4.555 million oz.
There are 69.457 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
GLD
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 867.37 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 477.572 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
Alasdair Macleod….
Governing with malice aforethought
The UK’s new Chancellor, is pursuing a socialist anticapitalistic agenda. She is on course to preside over a crisis worse than that faced by an earlier Labour Chancellor, Denis Healey in 1976.
| Alasdair MacleodNov 19∙Paid |
Denis Healey was infamous for his commitment “to squeeze the rich until their pips squeak”. That was until the IMF intervened. Rachel Reeves appears to be set on a similar course. She has removed the inheritance tax exemption from farmland over £1 million at probate, introducing a 20% rate on the balance. There’s no doubt about it: this is a socialist attack on landowners in line with core classroom Labour philosophy — down with the capitalists and landowners, and up with the workers. It targets the rural bourgeoisie.
Another aspect of her socialist agenda is to enhance the state at the expense of the private sector. She appears to hate capitalism. Despite cynically schmoozing up to naïve business leaders before the election, they are now being hit by higher employment taxes making employment less affordable, while pay rises and shorter working weeks are being doled out to government employees and members of powerful unions. The unions are to get new powers against employers as well.
As Britain sinks under the weight of its debt and the politicians continue to pass laws leading to higher spending commitments, these attacks on Britain’s only producers of products and wealth have been the direction of travel for decades. It was the reason for discontent with Conservative administrations which found it far easier to go with the demands of increasing state bureaucracy than to take a stand for lesser government in the interests of capitalism and free markets. Now with the genuine socialists in charge, the inevitable collapse of the nation’s finances has been merely hastened.
In the last fiscal year (2023/24) the UK’s budget deficit was £120bn, or 4.4% of GDP. Meanwhile, according to the Office for National Statistics, nominal GDP grew 4.1%. In other words, private sector output contracted, and all “economic growth” was due to unproductive government spending. In this current year, the situation is deteriorating. The Office for Budget Responsibility estimates the budget deficit will be £127bn. But this assumes that Reeves’s taxes will yield the £1,149bn anticipated. These assumptions could prove to be optimistic, and particularly so for 2024/25.
With the UK private sector not growing and being further depressed by taxes, there are likely to be shortfalls in income taxes, VAT, corporation tax, and business rates. And expenditures assume budgeted costs will be the outturn, but which are likely to be negatively impacted by higher-than-expected inflation and the consequences of recession on welfare spending —more on why this is so later. And at £105bn, interest cost is almost certainly underestimated given the debt trap of which Reeves appears blissfully unaware.
Here is the chart of the UK’s 10-year gilt yield:
With a debt-to-GDP ratio close to 100% and a profligate government destroying its tax base for ideological reasons it is hardly surprising that the yield on the 10-year gilt is close to the panic levels that resulted from Liz Truss’s economic policies, which resulted in her being ejected from office. If anything, it’s surprising the yield is not higher given that it’s about the same as the US Treasury’s 10-year Note.
Because London is the most important international financial centre in the European time zone, there are large foreign holdings of sterling and gilts. It has been a perennial problem for Labour governments, finding that their ideological policies stimulate runs on sterling from foreign holders. In 1967, sterling was devalued from $2.80 to $2.40: the infamous occasion when Harold Wilson claimed that the pound in your pocket was not affected. And the US had to rescue sterling from a crash that took it down from $2.43 to $1.59 in October 1976. The US’s intervention was repaid by the IMF on 15 December on condition of tax rises and spending cuts to balance the budget.
Inflation had peaked at 25% in 1975, and it was the era of gilt issues with coupons of 15% and more. The emergence of similar political conditions today compares with a of debt-to-GDP of 52% at that time, almost half the current level. On this basis, gilt yields and interest rates are far too low, and sterling far too high.
The trigger for adjustment to reality could come from exogenous developments. There is no doubt that led by Wall Street global equities are in a bubble, being wildly overvalued compared with bonds. With the US currently facing a debt to GDP ratio of 130% and no prospect of spending cuts, rather of tax cuts and inflationary trade tariffs increasing the budget deficit, US bond yields will certainly rise further and trigger an equity collapse. The knock-on impact on sterling would be nothing short of catastrophic.
When it happens, the folly of Reeve’s socialist crusade against capitalism will become fully apparent. It’s not for nothing that socialists are in denial of the Laffer Curve, which explains why raising taxes beyond a certain level diminishes revenues. The OBR’s sycophantic analysis of her budget and Marxism will be exposed for what it is — divorced from any economic reality.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Resolute Mining to pay Mali 160 million to resolve a tax dispute
Resolute Mining to pay Mali $160 million to resolve tax dispute and free staff
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-11-18 23:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Sherin Sunny and Sachin Ravikumar
Reuters
Monday, November 18, 2024
Australia’s Resolute Mining said today that it would pay $160 million to Mali’s government to help resolve a tax dispute after the West African country detained its CEO Terence Holohan and two other employees this month.
Resolute has made an initial payment of $80 million as part of the settlement from existing cash reserves and will make future payments of about $80 million in the coming months from existing liquidity sources, it said in a statement.
After the news, Resolute shares fell as much as 14.3% in early trading on Monday to A$0.345, their lowest since March 1.
The detained employees were in Mali’s capital, Bamako, to hold discussions with mining and tax authorities regarding general activities related to the company’s business practices, the company said last week.
Resolute is working with the Mali government to release the detained employees, who remain “safe and well” and are receiving support from the UK and international embassies and consulates, the miner said. …
… For the remainder of the report:
this is important. Warsh is well known to us and has admitted Fed’s gold swaps and market rigging
(London FinancialTimes)
Warsh, who admitted Fed’s gold swaps and market rigging, eyed for Treasury chief
Submitted by admin on Mon, 2024-11-18 10:45 Section: Daily Dispatches
Trump Expands Search for Treasury Secretary
From the Financial Times, London
Sunday, November 17, 2024
Donald Trump has expanded his search for a Treasury secretary to serve in his second-term cabinet, throwing the contest for his top economic official into confusion as he struggles to settle on a choice.
The Republican president-elect had been weighing whether to offer the job to Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager, or Howard Lutnick, co-chair of his transition team and chief executive of Cantor Fitzgerald, the financial firm. But at the weekend, Trump moved to widen the net of possible alternatives.
People close to the process said Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, Marc Rowan, chief executive of Apollo Global Management, and Bill Hagerty, the Tennessee senator, are also now in the running, along with Robert Lighthizer, the former U.S. trade representative under Trump. …
… For the remainder of the report:
* * *
Warsh knows all about gold market rigging by the U.S. government, gold swaps — and GATA.
Fed admits hiding gold swap arrangements:
Former Fed Governor Warsh admits that the central bank manipulates markets:
Central bank policy is obscuring market values, Warsh tells Stanford audience:
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 199 ANDREW MAGUIRE
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 199
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES: URANIUM
Both Canada and the USA gave away Uranium deposits
special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us;
.
Obama-Biden-Clinton nuclear giveaway to Russia a decade ago comes back to bite America
Vladimir Putin has cut off exports of Russian uranium to the United States, exploiting a dangerous dependence cemented by Obama-era deals.
The U.S. nuclear energy sector’s dependence on Russian uranium created during a failed Obama-era reset with Moscow is coming back to bite Americans as the Kremlin moves to block future exports of the vital fuel.
Vladimir Putin’s new restrictions on uranium exports to the U.S., announced last week, come as the country’s war in Ukraine continues to heighten tensions with the United States and the West. His announcement created an immediate impact, as uranium prices soared and worries grew that American utilities might have trouble meeting electric demand next year.
It’s the latest fallout from a series of foreign policy decisions crafted by Barack Obama, Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton that inexplicably strengthened Putin’s ability to wage economic warfare with energy supplies such as natural gas and uranium.
“Everything the Democrats have done has emboldened Russia and their ability to actually leverage their dirty gas production,” Rep. Claudia Tenney, R-N.Y., told the Just the News, No Noise television show on Monday night. Tenney’s House district is home to New York’s remaining nuclear power reactors.
Enriched uranium is a vital component of nuclear power plants in the United States, which account for a fifth of electricity production across the nation. The United States is also almost entirely dependent on imports to acquire enriched uranium. Last year, the United States imported more than a quarter of its enriched fuel from Russia even as relations have deteriorated during the Ukraine war.
But the current dependence on Russia was a long time in the making, cemented by several deals signed by the Clinton and Obama administrations that hooked the United States on Moscow’s uranium supply, according to the 2020 book “Fallout: Nuclear Bribes, Russian Spies, and the Washington Lies that Enriched the Clinton and Biden Dynasties.”
“[The] United States used to produce its own nuclear materials for bombs and then for nuclear energy, and it was the Clinton administration they made this deal with the Russians way back in the 90s to purchase all of this down blended material from, you know, the decommission nuclear warheads from Russia,” Seamus Bruner, co-author of the book, told the John Solomon Reports podcast on Monday. “That got us addicted to Russia’s supply,” he said, explaining that it led to a cratering of domestic supply.
Two deals, which took place during Obama’s vaunted “Russian Reset” that began in 2009, cemented the United States’ dependence on Russia nuclear fuel, Bruner said.
“[The] Obama administration certainly wasn’t friendly. They made the famous deals with Russia, the [123 Agreement]; everybody remembers the uranium one deal, which was about nuclear energy, not nuclear weapons,” Bruner said.
“And so now we’re in this tough spot. Now we do have domestic producers, who are, you know, producing uranium for our energy needs, but there are no way, there’s no way they’re going to catch up.”
As part of the flurry of diplomacy between the former Cold War rivals, the Obama administration penned the new 123 Agreement with the Kremlin, which was designed to increase cooperation on civil nuclear energy and further commercial opportunities between the two economies. The administration also signed new arms control and technology cooperation agreements as part of the diplomatic push.
The deal led to billions of dollars in contracts for U.S. utilities to buy Russian uranium to power their nuclear reactors.
Around the same time the agreements were taking shape, however, Putin’s state-controlled nuclear company, Rosatom, was making moves to corner the global supply.
The Russian company’s efforts to acquire a Canadian company, Uranium One, became a scandal for the Obama administration because it saw the virtual elimination of U.S. domestic production of uranium and raised corruption concerns about some of its chief officials.
“The the Uranium One deal was about shuttering our domestic mines, we had all of these uranium mines across…the Rocky Mountains…and closer towards the west, Midwest, that shut down the domestic production there, which was a boon to Putin, who had purchased, in addition to the mines in the United States, a bunch of mines in Kazakhstan,” Bruner said.
“And those are where he’s able to pull out a ton of uranium and enrich it for civilian purposes, ostensibly, and and then sell it back to us at a premium.”
Before the Russian takeover, Uranium One was a Canadian company that mined Uranium around the world, with assets in Eurasia, Africa, and North America. Its facilities in Wyoming, Utah, and other states accounted for approximately 20% of U.S. uranium capacity at the time, necessitating a review by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States to approve an acquisition by the Russia state-backed company.
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton sat on that committee and had a prominent role in shaping the administration’s foreign policy. The acquisition became a scandal that plagued her 2016 presidential campaign after investigative author Peter Schweizer and his Government Accountability Institute found nine Uranium One shareholders funneled $145 million into the Clinton Foundation before the deal was set to be considered.
The acquisition was subsequently approved, though Clinton’s team has repeatedly denied that the secretary had a major role in approving the sale.
Both Congress and President Biden, who had a front row seat to the reset, at least appeared to recognize the danger caused by the past missteps, but could do little to wean the U.S. off Russia’s supply before now.
Shortly after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Congress passed and Biden signed the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act ostensibly to free the U.S. nuclear industry from dependence on Russia. Yet, the law only requires an end to U.S. imports of nuclear fuel from Russia completely by 2028, providing a waiver system in the intervening years.
“It was a terrible decision to make us dependent on on imports of uranium from Russia,” former Trump National Security Council Chief of Staff Fred Fleitz told the John Solomon Reports podcast.
Fleitz said the waiver system established by the law revealed how underdeveloped the United States’ domestic uranium production is, something Putin eagerly exploited last week.
“But utilities could ask for waivers, with the understanding it will take a long time for us to establish domestic sources of your reactor grade uranium,” Fleitz said. “The Russians knew that, and they’re going to cut this off, and our reactors will have no where to go to get uranium.”
“A real bind”
Experts warn that the restrictions come at a time when the U.S. nuclear industry is completely unprepared.
“We don’t have enough enriched uranium here,” Chris Gadomski, the lead nuclear analyst for BloombergNEF told Bloomberg News. “They should have been stockpiling enriched uranium in anticipation of this happening.”
Fleitz gave a starker warning, saying the fuel shortage could lead to brownouts by next summer in states with a higher reliance on nuclear power.
“[It] puts us in a real bind, because there are I just talked to a nuclear expert just before our call to get the specifics on this, and he told me that this decision will lead to brown outs in the summer, because there simply won’t be enough nuclear fuel for certain states to run their reactors to generate electricity,” Fleitz said.
“So this is going to be a pretty vital issue for President Trump to deal with, and I wonder whether Putin did this to get some leverage in peace talks on Ukraine,” he added.
Even after the war in Ukraine further soured relations with Russia, the U.S. remained one of the largest importers of Russian uranium fuel in 2023, giving the Kremlin a useful lever in any peace negotiations.
Despite the Biden administration’s efforts to reverse the imports of Russian nuclear fuel, American nuclear plants still remain heavily dependent on supplies from abroad, leaving the administration vulnerable to Putin’s tactics.
Sent from my iPad
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING TUESDAY MORNING/MONDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 27.66 PTS OR 0.44%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 87.06 PTS OR 0.44%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 193.58 OR 0.51%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.87%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2293 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2392// Oil DOWN TO 67.09 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT UP AT 73.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2293
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2392
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 22.66 PTS OR 0.67%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 87.06 PTS OR 0.44%
2. Nikkei closed UP 193.58 PTS OR 0.51%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.67 EURO FALLS TO 1.0582 UP 47 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALL TO. +1.046 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 153.66…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and UP FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3170 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.543 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.027
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.166
3j Gold at $2632.00 /Silver at: 31.25 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 0 AND 68/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 100.45
3m oil into the 67 dollar handle for WTI and 71 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 153.66 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.046% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8817 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9331 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.350 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.580 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.229 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.53…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4725 DOWN 8 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.293 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.101 DOWN 5 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
US Futures, Global Markets Slide, Dollar And Yields Jump On Ukraine War Escalation
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 08:24 AM
Stocks fell, with European equities shedding almost 1%, and global bonds and the dollar climbing on worries over the latest escalation in the Ukraine. Sentiment was spooked after Vladimir Putin signed a decree lowering Russia’s threshold for a nuclear strike in the event of a massive conventional attack on its soil. The warning came just minutes before Ukrainian forces carried out their first strike within Russian territory with a Western-supplied ATACMS missile, although the tepid Russian response indicated that Putin is in no rush to retaliate to this provocation by the deep state. As of 8:00am S&P 500 futures dipped 0.3%, but were well off their session lows; Nasdaq futures dropped 0.2% with TSLA down 1.5% and NVDA up +0.8% pre-market. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell three basis points to 4.38% after earlier dropping to 4.33%. The moves were steeper in Europe, with German bond yields dropping to the lowest since October. The euro retreated 0.3%. Poland’s main stock index sank more than 3%. However, bunds then pared gains and their outperformance over Treasuries as traders unwind haven buying after Russia reports limited damage following Ukraine’s missile attack using US weapons, a move seen as Putin’s unwillingness to push the world into WW3. Commodities are mixed: oil is flat, base metals are mixed with copper and iron ore higher, and Precious Metals are higher. Today, the key focus will be LOW and WMT earnings pre-market. On macro data, we will receive Housing Starts and Building Permits.
In premarket trading, Walmart rose 4% after the company boosted its outlook for the year on strong demand from US consumers searching for value. Alphabet dropped 0.5% on reports that top Justice Department antitrust officials decided to ask a judge to force Google to sell off its Chrome browser to break its monopoly search. Bakkt jumped another 18% after the Financial Times reported that Trump Media and Technology Group is in advanced talks to buy the crypto trading firm, citing people familiar with the matter. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Incyte drops 11% after the company announced it will pause enrollment in a Phase 2 study of MRGPRX2, which is aimed at a chronic skin condition.
- Super Micro Computer jumps 23% after the company hired a new auditor and filed a plan to come into compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements.
- Symbotic soars 30% after the robotics warehouse automation company provided a 1Q revenue outlook that beat estimates.
- XPeng ADRs gains 5% after the electric-vehicle maker’s fourth-quarter forecast beat estimates, with the company forecasting sales of 87,000 to 91,000 units — higher than the average estimate of 73,960.
Markets were rattled by reports that Ukrainian forces reportedly carried out their first strike on a border region in Russia using Western-supplied missiles. Earlier, President Vladimir Putin had approved an updated nuclear doctrine that expanded the conditions for Russia to use atomic weapons, including in response to a massive conventional attack on its soil. Putin had pledged in September to revise the doctrine.
“The market reaction is logical, one could feel already yesterday that the tension was rising,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France. “For the moment the market reaction is contained, some are still in a wait-and see-mode.”
Traditional haven assets including the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and gold gained. Ukraine’s sovereign dollar bonds – which had risen sharply in recent days on hopes for a Trump-led ceasefire, fell the most among emerging-market peers, with a note due February 2029 losing 1.6 cent on the dollar.
Also on Tuesday, traders were discussing how Trump’s nomination of Treasury secretary could shape policy. The transition team is considering pairing Kevin Warsh, a former Fed official, in the Treasury secretary role, with hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as director of the White House’s National Economic Council, according to people familiar with the matter. “Kevin Warsh was in the FOMC, so the likelihood of political interference into the Fed policy making is certainly diminishing if he were to become the Treasury secretary,” said Gero Jung, chief economist of Mirabaud Asset Management in Geneva.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 fell as much as 1% on concerns Russia’s war in Ukraine is escalating. The turbulence boosted the region’s defense stocks, several of which are among the top gainers alongside Aeroports de Paris and Imperial Brands. At the other end of the index, Siemens and Husqvarna fall on respective broker downgrades. Here are the biggest movers Tuesday:
- European defense stocks rise while airlines slide after RBC Ukraine says Ukrainian armed forces carried out their first strike in a border region within Russian territory
- Imperial Brands shares rise as much as 3.5%, briefly hitting their highest level since 2019, after the tobacco giant reported annual results that were broadly in-line with its pre-close update
- Aéroports de Paris rises as much as 6.2% after Bank of America and Stifel upgrade the stock to buy, predicting that earnings momentum and the group’s strong international platforms will provide upside
- Bodycote shares rise as much as 7.8%, marking its biggest jump in 20 months, after the heat treatment specialist said its full-year performance should meet market expectations
- Avon Technologies gains as much as 9.9% to a three-year high, after the respiratory-protection equipment maker reported preliminary full-year earnings, with mid-term targets a key positive
- Vesuvius shares rise as much as 8%, the most in almost 16 months, after the molten metal flow engineering firm delivered a resilient trading update despite tough conditions in its end markets
- Siemens falls as much as 4.1% after being downgraded to neutral at Bank of America, with the broker quoting “limited” 2025 momentum and a slow recovery for its key Digital Industries division
- Husqvarna drops as much as 6.8% after the Swedish gardening equipment manufacturer was cut to sell at SEB, with the broker no longer seeing any major recovery from 2024 lows
- Italian shares declined, with the FTSE MIB being the second-worst performer in the world. Large domestic lenders dragged the index down as investors took profit following YTD gains
- CaixaBank shares drop as much as 5.1% after the Spanish bank unveiled a new strategic plan. KBW noted that the capital distribution targets are now less clear
- Novo Nordisk shares erased what was left of this year’s once lofty gains as concerns around the impact of competition and supply constraints cool excitement around the Danish drugmaker’s obesity drugs
- Spie drops as much as 4.5%, briefly hitting their lowest level since January, after one of the company’s investors offered to sell shares at a discount compared to Monday’s close
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks rose, extending a rebound from recent losses, led by Taiwan and Australia after gains in US peers overnight. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.1%, with TSMC and Commonwealth Bank of Australia among the biggest boosts. Tech and financials were among the largest drivers amid broad advances across sectors. US and European stock futures rose as a decline in Treasury yields bolstered the appeal of holding equities. The rally follows a decline of 3.9% in the Asian benchmark last week, its worst in seven months. Investors remain focused on US President-elect Donald Trumps’ plans including the heavy tariffs he has vowed on China, as well as the response planned by the latter as it continues to try and revive its economy.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index rose 0.1%, while USDJPY dropped as much as 0.9% to 153.29, before paring losses; one-week volatility spiked by 60 basis points to 10.34% after the Russia headlines hit the wires; the Swiss franc also inches higher.
In rates, treasuries held flight-to-quality gains garnered during London morning following report Ukraine had carried out its first strike on Russian territory with Western-supplied missiles. Yields, off session lows, remain 4bp-5bp richer across the curve. Scant US economic data and Fed speeches are slated. Treasury 10-year yields are around 4.37% vs session low 4.343%; gilts in the sector lag by around 1bp while bunds trade broadly in line; curve spreads are within 1pm of Monday’s closing levels
In commodities, natural-gas futures gained as much as 1.1%, trading near their highest levels in a year. Oil traders, meanwhile, appeared unfazed by the latest developments, with WTI falling 0.8% to $68.60 a barrel after Europe’s largest oil field gradually restarted following a power outage. Spot gold climbed 0.9% or $23 to around $2,634/oz.
Bitcoin is back in the vicinity of an all-time high, climbing above $92,000. The digital asset has been supported by a series of developments highlighting the deepening embrace of the digital-asset industry by Trump.
Today’s economic data calendar includes October building starts and housing permits at 8:30am. Fed speaker slate includes Kansas City’s Schmid at 1:10pm
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.6% to 5,885.75
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.9% to 498.07
- MXAP up 1.0% to 183.95
- MXAPJ up 0.7% to 581.32
- Nikkei up 0.5% to 38,414.43
- Topix up 0.7% to 2,710.03
- Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 19,663.67
- Shanghai Composite up 0.7% to 3,346.01
- Sensex up 0.5% to 77,692.91
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 8,374.03
- Kospi up 0.1% to 2,471.95
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.29%
- Euro down 0.6% to $1.0535
- Brent Futures down 0.8% to $72.74/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.8% to $2,631.64
- US Dollar Index up 0.28% to 106.57
Top Overnight News
- Haven assets gained as Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in the event of a massive conventional attack on its soil. It will also view aggression against itself or allies by a non-nuclear state backed by other nuclear powers as a joint attack. Adding to the tension, Ukrainian forces carried out their first strike within Russian territory with a Western-supplied ATACMS missile. BBG
- Japan and China sold Treasuries last quarter ahead of the US election. Japanese investors sold a record $61.9 billion, while funds in China offloaded $51.3 billion, the second biggest sum on record. BBG
- China is “scrambling” to secure meetings w/members of the incoming Trump administration. FT
- The BOJ may raise policy rates to “a neutral rate” of 1% by March 2026, MUFG Chairman Kanetsugu Mike said. BBG
- Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to a US proposal for a cease-fire with Israel with some comments on the content. Reuters
- NATO’s 15 largest European members may have to double defense spending to $720 billion annually to meet the challenge of Russia’s war in Ukraine and the possibility of less American support. BBG
- Trump is leaning towards Warsh as Treasury Sec with Bessent as head of the White House’s National Economic Council. BBG
- Trump is said to be pressuring senators to confirm Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, according to Axios. However, it was also reported that Trump admitted Gaetz may not be confirmed by the Senate, according to NYT.
- Trump’s cabinet picks could face obstacles from as many as 9 Republican Senators. The Hill
- Alphabet shares down ~70bps premarket after people familiar said the DOJ will push for Google to sell its Chrome browser to break its monopoly. Officials are also seeking action on data licensing and AI. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following the similar performance stateside although gains were capped amid relatively quiet newsflow with no major fresh macro catalysts to drive price action. ASX 200 outperformed and notched a fresh record high with all sectors in the green and the advances led by a tech resurgence and strength in gold miners, while there were recent amiable Xi-Albanese comments and Morgan Stanley raised its ASX 200 target. Nikkei 225 traded higher and shrugged off a firmer currency as Japan aims for cabinet approval of an economic package soon. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses despite better-than-expected earnings from Xiaomi which failed to lift shares in the smartphone/EV maker, while support pledges by regulators did little to boost sentiment and the EU is also reportedly to demand tech transfers from Chinese companies in return for EU subsidies which would apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors.
Top Asian News
- PBoC asks financial institutions to stop buying offshore Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bond under southbound connect scheme, via Reuters citing sources
- PBoC’s Zhu said China will deepen Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor reforms, while it will support Hong Kong to develop the offshore yuan market.
- Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said they will support more quality enterprises to list and issue bonds in Hong Kong, as well as support Chinese financial institutions in Hong Kong to expand their business.
- China’s NFRA chief said Chinese banks have sufficient buffers for risk and they will implement the new CNY 60bln limit on local government debt and support financial institutions in debt restructuring to ease pressure on local governments. Furthermore, efforts will focus on improving financial service facilitation in the Greater Bay Area through interoperability of regulatory mechanisms and targeted policy issuance, while there are encouraging Chinese-funded banks and insurance institutions to set up their regional headquarters in Hong Kong to support its economic development.
- China CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said they will support listings inside and outside of the mainland.
- EU is reportedly to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies in return for EU subsidies, while the requirements would apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors, according to FT.
- Hong Kong jailed all 45 Hong Kong pro-democracy campaigners in the city’s largest security trial with legal scholar Benny Tai sentenced to 10 years in prison for subversion and student leader Joshua Wong sentenced to 4 years and 8 months, while it was later reported that the US strongly condemned the jailing of the democracy activists, according to AFP.
- Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa said they are aiming for cabinet approval of the economic package soon and it is crucial to boost pay for all generations with the package, while DPP head Tamaki also said that they aim for cabinet approval of economic measures by Friday.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive forex moves. Kato stated there is absolutely no change to their stance on forex and they have been seeing somewhat one-sided, sharp moves in the forex market since late September, while he reiterated they are closely watching FX moves with the utmost sense of urgency.
- RBA Minutes from the November 5th meeting stated the Board is vigilant to upside inflation risks and policy is needed to remain restrictive, while it saw no immediate need to change the Cash Rate and reiterated it is not possible to rule anything in or out on future changes in the Cash Rate. RBA Minutes noted their forecasts were based on the technical assumption for the Cash Rate to stay steady until mid-2025 and the Board considered what might warrant future change in cash rate or prolonged steady period, as well as discussed scenarios where policy would need to stay restrictive for longer or tighten further but also considered scenarios where a rate cut would be justified, including weak consumption. Furthermore, RBA noted the supply gap might be wider than assumed, necessitating tighter policy and rates might need to rise if the Board judged policy was not as restrictive as assumed, while it also stated that the Board had “minimal tolerance” for inflation above forecasts and would need more than one good quarterly inflation report to justify rate cut.
- Xpeng (XPEV/ 9868 HK) Q3 (RMB): adj eps -1.62 (prev. -1.61), revenue 10.1bln (prev. 9.91bln), vehicle deliveries 87-91k (+44.6-51.3% Y/Y).
- China’s chip advances stall as US curbs hit Huawei AI products, via Bloomberg.
European bourses opened on a mixed/modestly firmer footing. Thereafter, Russia’s Kremlin said “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”. This sparked a safe-haven bid, with equities selling-off to session lows, whilst the JPY and bonds soared to highs. This move has since stabilised, with equities currently residing at lows. European sectors opened entirely in the green, but sentiment has since slipped and now shows a mostly negative picture in Europe. A clear defensive bias is seen in Europe; Utilities top, whilst Autos and Consumer Products lags. US equity futures are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit following comments via Russian Kremlin that noted it could respond to aggression in a nuclear manner. Goldman Sachs lowers its 12 month Stoxx 600 target to 530 from 540 (currently 502). Cuts FTSE 100 target to 8500 from 8800 (currently 8138)
Top European News
- UK PM Starmer announced the relaunch of UK-India free trade talks, while it was also reported that Starmer met with Japanese PM Ishiba and agreed to start “2 + 2” economic and trade cooperation talks between the UK and Japan.
- ECB’s Panetta says the ECB should move to a neutral monetary stance, or expansionary if necessary; forthcoming change in the US govt adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Still a long way from the neutral rate. ECB needs to give more explicit indications of its policy rate intention.
- BoE Governor Bailey says services inflation is still above level that is compatible with on-target inflation. Says BoE must watch services inflation carefully. Says a gradual approach to removing monpol restraint will help observe risks to the inflation outlook.
- BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli says we have seen a fall in services inflation and wage settlements; sees risks to inflation on both sides.
- BoE’s Taylor says disinflation is unfolding as we should expect.
- BoE’s Mann says forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for four months, raises risk of inflation persistence. Says financial market inflation expectations suggest BoE will not get to 2% inflation in the forecast horizon. Latest Budget offers opportunity for firms to realise price increases that are inconsistent with 2% inflation target. Even before the Budget, higher minimum wage was causing firms problems in maintaining wage differentials.
- Moody’s says total industry costs from Britain’s review into motor finance commissions could reach GBP 30bln
FX
- DXY is firmer vs. peers (ex-JPY) after a sluggish start to the session which appeared to be a signal of USD consolidation from its post-election run of gains. However, the risk-off move prompted by Russian Kremlin comments managed to provide some reprieve.
- EUR/USD has been swept up in the broader risk-averse move which provided the USD some reprieve. Today’s EZ HICP (Final) metrics were unrevised, and as such had little impact on the Single-currency. EUR/USD briefly slipped below the bottom end of yesterday’s 1.0529-1.0607 range.
- JPY attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s lost ground vs. the USD with Japanese Finance Minister Kato attempting to lend a helping hand, with familiar jawboning overnight. USD/JPY selling exacerbated with the pair breaking below the bottom end of yesterday’s 153.84-155.35 range due to risk-aversion prompted by comments from the Russian Kremlin.
- GBP struggling against the USD, pulling back below the 1.2650 level and hovers just above yesterday’s trough at 1.2611. The TSC Hearing is currently ongoing at time of publish; so far, BoE’s Mann has repeated her familiar hawkish rhetoric, whilst Governor Bailey largely reiterated comments made at the last BoE meeting.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD with both currencies hampered by the current risk environment and scaling back some of yesterday’s gains. AUD/USD managed to advance to a high of 0.6523 earlier but has since pulled back below 0.65 (vs. yesterday’s trough at 0.6447).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1911 vs exp. 7.2305 (prev. 7.1907).
Fixed Income
- USTs have marched higher in early trade with a safe-haven bid emerging from comments by the Russian Kremlin that it could respond to aggression in a nuclear manner. Fresh US-specific macro drivers are currently lacking in what is set to be a week that contains a light data slate. Dec’24 UST cleared a slew of highs from last week as well as the 110 mark and matched the 12th November high at 110.04.
- Bunds are higher in-fitting with global counterparts as macro updates from the Eurozone remain light for today’s session thus far; focus ultimately lies on Flash PMIs on Friday. Bunds have taken out a slew of highs from last week with the next upside target coming via the 133 mark with the 30th October high just above at 133.02.
- Ahead of the BoE TSC Hearing, the 2038 Gilt auction was fairly weak vs the prior outing (pre-Budget). Gilts topped 94.50, but has since edged back below that level to a current 94.25. The TSC Hearing is currently ongoing at time of publish; so far, BoE’s Mann has repeated her familiar hawkish rhetoric, whilst Governor Bailey largely reiterated comments made at the last BoE meeting.
- UK sells GBP 3.25bln 3.75% 2038 Gilt: b/c 2.74x (prev. 3.28x), average yield 4.558% (prev. 4.131%) & tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.1bps)
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are on the back foot, having initially started the European session with incremental losses. Pressure in the complex accelerated following commentary from Russia’s Kremlin which noted that, “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”. On the supply front, Equinor said production has restarted at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield. Brent’Jan 25 sits towards the bottom end of a USD 72.72-73.53/bbl range.
- Precious metals are on a firmer footing continuing the price action seen overnight. XAU specifically caught a bid owing to its safe-haven status, following the aforementioned geopolitical updates via Russia’s Kremlin.
- Base metals began the European session entirely in the green, benefiting from the positive risk tone overnight and amid support pledges by Chinese officials. Some pressure, with sentiment hit following the above geopolitical related headlines.
- Equinor (EQNR NO) says production has restarted at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield; expects the oilfield to produce at 2/3 of normal capacity during morning hours today. Still working to restore full output capacity.
- Chinese October crude iron ore output -4.1% Y/Y at 86.45mln tonnes, according to stats bureau. Alumina output +5.4% Y/Y at 7.43mln metric tons. Lead output -5.3% Y/Y at 661k tons. Zinc output -9.5% at 565k tons.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Against the backdrop of Amos Hochstein’s visit to Beirut – the US administration is warning “not to read too much” his visit as a sign that a deal may be imminent – as negotiations are ongoing, via Kann News’s Stein
- Iranian Foreign Minister says “We consider the recent Israeli aggression on our territory a new attack and deserves a response from our side”
- Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to the US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with ‘some comments’ on content, according to a senior Lebanese politician who stated the US ceasefire proposal is the most serious attempt yet to end the fighting.
- Hezbollah said it bombarded a gathering of Israeli enemy forces south of the town of Khiam, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli Foreign Minister urged the UN to pressure Iraq after attacks by pro-Iran factions and said the government of Iraq is responsible for any actions that occur within or from its territory, according to Sky News Arabia and Asharq News.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said new EU and UK sanctions against Iran are unjustified, baseless and contradict international law.
- Iranian Ambassador to Russia said there are no obstacles to concluding a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran, according to Asharq News.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Russia’s Kremlin says the updated nuclear doctrine signed by Putin is a “very important text”, “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”
- Ukraine reportedly makes first ATACMS strike inside Russia, according to Ukraine press.
- US Ambassador to the UN said on Monday that the US will announce additional security assistance for Ukraine in the coming days, according to Reuters.
- French President Macron said US President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine the use of US-provided weapons to strike inside of Russia is a good decision, according to Reuters.
- Kremlin spokesperson said Russia is ready to normalise ties with the US but will not tango alone, while a spokesperson also said that Russia’s amendments to its nuclear doctrine have been formulated but not formalised yet, according to TASS.
- Russia and Chinese foreign ministers discussed ‘unprecedented’ strategic bilateral relations on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Brazil, according to Russian agencies cited by Reuters.
- EU foreign chief Borrell said the role of China is becoming bigger and bigger in the Ukraine war and without Iran and China, Russia could not support its military effort.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Oct. Housing Starts MoM, est. -1.5%, prior -0.5%
- 08:30: Oct. Housing Starts, est. 1.33m, prior 1.35m
- 08:30: Oct. Building Permits MoM, est. 0.7%, prior -2.9%, revised -3.1%
- 08:30: Oct. Building Permits, est. 1.44m, prior 1.43m, revised 1.43m
Central Bank Speakers
- 13:10: Fed’s Schmid Speaks on Economic Outlook , Policy
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
One thing we pointed out in our LT Study was how this era has some uncanny parallels to the end of the last quarter-century 25 years ago. For instance, equities have surged over the last couple of years, with a narrow rally that’s been driven by tech stocks, just like in the dot com bubble. Moreover, the Fed are easing policy in that environment, just like they did in 1998, whilst valuation metrics like the CAPE are currently sitting at historic highs. In light of that, Henry took a look at how the current situation resembles three other periods when valuations were historically high: the dot com bubble, the pre-GFC era, and 2021. You can see the report here.
Risk assets began to stabilise yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.39%) picking up again after its decline of more than -2% last week. There wasn’t really a major catalyst behind the moves and it was a fairly quiet day on the whole. But the Magnificent 7 (+1.22%) saw a sizeable outperformance thanks to a +5.62% surge in Tesla’s share price, so that helped to drag up equities more broadly. Those moves for Tesla followed a Bloomberg report that the Trump transition team had said to advisers they’d make a federal framework for self-driving cars a priority for the Transportation Department, so that was very good news from their perspective. The equity gains were reasonably broad beyond tech, with nearly two thirds of the S&P 500 higher on the day, although the Dow Jones (-0.13%) lost ground amid underperformance for industrials. Over in Europe the story was one of small declines, with the STOXX 600 down -0.06%.
Government yields had a topsy-turvy day in the US. At the close 10yr Treasury yields (-2.5bps) and 30yr yields (-0.7bps) were lower and 6-8bps down from their intra-day highs, which saw 30yr yields touch their highest levels since May. The reversal was driven by a decline in real yields, with breakevens higher on the day and the US 2yr inflation swap up +3.1bps to a 7-month high of 2.66%. Overnight, yields on 10yr USTs have slipped -0.8bps lower trading at 4.406%.
This dialing up of investors’ inflation expectations came amid a strong day for oil prices with Brent crude up +3.18% to $73.30/bbl, which in large part reflected an increased focus on geopolitical tensions after the weekend’s news that President Biden authorised Ukraine to use US long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia. Gold (+1.84%) posted its best day in three months, with a stronger day for commodities also facilitated by a decline for the dollar index (-0.39%) for the first time in seven sessions.
Over in Europe, markets closed before the US bond rally took hold, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.6bps), OATs (+1.1bps) and BTPs (+1.5bps) all inching higher. That came against the backdrop of several ECB speakers yesterday, but there wasn’t much deviation from expectations. For instance, Greece’s Stournaras said that for the December meeting, he thought “25 basis points is an optimal reduction.” And Ireland’s Makhlouf said that he believed “in a prudent and cautious approach”. So that seemed to steer away from speculation about a larger 50bps cut from the ECB in December, and investors moved to dial back the chance of a 50bp cut to just 17% yesterday, down from 23% on Friday.
Elsewhere, the question of appointments to the Trump administration remains a key focus, and we’re still waiting to see who’ll be nominated as the new Treasury Secretary. Interestingly, there was growing speculation about Kevin Warsh yesterday after an initial push over the weekend. He is a former Fed governor during the financial crisis from 2006-11, who previously served in the George W. Bush administration. The other names in the frame recently have been Scott Bessent and Howard Lutnick. A Bloomberg report yesterday evening said that Trump’s transition team is considering pairing Warsh as Treasury Secretary with Bessent as the director of the National Economic Council. Warsh is seen as more hawkish on monetary policy and less protectionist than the other candidates so on the former point the surge on Polymarket.com for the likelihood of him getting the Treasury job (45% as I type) may have been a big factor in the intra-day Treasury rally yeaterday.
Asian equity markets are higher outside of China this this morning with the S&P/ASX 200 (+0.89%) leading the gains with the Nikkei (+0.64%), the KOSPI (+0.14%), the Hang Seng (+0.12%) also higher. On the other hand, mainland Chinese stocks are lagging with the Shanghai Composite (-0.54%) edging lower ahead of the PBOC’s decision on its benchmark loan prime rate later this week. Outside of Asia, US stock futures are indicating a positive start with those on the S&P 500 (+0.13%) and NASDAQ 100 (+0.15%) trading slightly higher.
In central bank news, the minutes from the RBA’s recent policy meeting indicated that the board remains vigilant to upside inflation risks and believes policy needs to remain restrictive as it sees no “immediate need” to change the cash rate.
In FX, the Japanese yen (+0.14%) is has been edging higher (154.42) amid concern of possible government intervention given the current levels. Looking forward, the focus this week is on CPI data for October, due on Friday.
There was very little data to speak of yesterday, although we did get the NAHB’s housing market index from the US. That ticked up to 46 (vs. 42 expected), marking its third consecutive monthly increase, which took the index up to a 7-month high.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include US housing starts and building permits for October. Central bank speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, the BoE’s Lombardelli, Mann and Taylor, the ECB’s Elderson, Muller and Panetta, and the Fed’s Schmid. Finally, earnings releases include Walmart and Lowe’s.
2B) European report.
Risk off sentiment as Russia’s Kremlin suggests nuclear response – Newsquawk US Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 05:47 AM
- Equities are entirely in the red with sentiment hit following remarks by Russia’s Kremlin, which said “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”.
- Dollar is firmer vs most peers, but weaker against the JPY which caught a bid owing to its safe-haven status.
- Bonds have soared to session highs following comments by the Russian Kremlin that it could respond to aggression in a nuclear manner.
- Crude is on the backfoot, XAU bid given the risk-off environment.
- Looking ahead, Canadian CPI, US Building Permits, NBH Policy Announcement, Comments from Fed’s Schmid, Earnings from Walmart, Lowe’s & Medtronic.
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses opened on a mixed/modestly firmer footing. Thereafter, Russia’s Kremlin said “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression“. This sparked a safe-haven bid, with equities selling-off to session lows, whilst the JPY and bonds soared to highs. This move has since stabilised, with equities currently residing at lows.
- European sectors opened entirely in the green, but sentiment has since slipped and now shows a mostly negative picture in Europe. A clear defensive bias is seen in Europe; Utilities top, whilst Autos and Consumer Products lags.
- US equity futures are entirely in the red, with sentiment hit following comments via Russian Kremlin that noted it could respond to aggression in a nuclear manner.
- Goldman Sachs lowers its 12 month Stoxx 600 target to 530 from 540 (currently 502). Cuts FTSE 100 target to 8500 from 8800 (currently 8138)
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is firmer vs. peers (ex-JPY) after a sluggish start to the session which appeared to be a signal of USD consolidation from its post-election run of gains. However, the risk-off move prompted by Russian Kremlin comments managed to provide some reprieve.
- EUR/USD has been swept up in the broader risk-averse move which provided the USD some reprieve. Today’s EZ HICP (Final) metrics were unrevised, and as such had little impact on the Single-currency. EUR/USD briefly slipped below the bottom end of yesterday’s 1.0529-1.0607 range.
- JPY attempting to claw back some of yesterday’s lost ground vs. the USD with Japanese Finance Minister Kato attempting to lend a helping hand, with familiar jawboning overnight. USD/JPY selling exacerbated with the pair breaking below the bottom end of yesterday’s 153.84-155.35 range due to risk-aversion prompted by comments from the Russian Kremlin.
- GBP struggling against the USD, pulling back below the 1.2650 level and hovers just above yesterday’s trough at 1.2611. The TSC Hearing is currently ongoing at time of publish; so far, BoE’s Mann has repeated her familiar hawkish rhetoric, whilst Governor Bailey largely reiterated comments made at the last BoE meeting.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the USD with both currencies hampered by the current risk environment and scaling back some of yesterday’s gains. AUD/USD managed to advance to a high of 0.6523 earlier but has since pulled back below 0.65 (vs. yesterday’s trough at 0.6447).
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1911 vs exp. 7.2305 (prev. 7.1907).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- USTs have marched higher in early trade with a safe-haven bid emerging from comments by the Russian Kremlin that it could respond to aggression in a nuclear manner. Fresh US-specific macro drivers are currently lacking in what is set to be a week that contains a light data slate. Dec’24 UST cleared a slew of highs from last week as well as the 110 mark and matched the 12th November high at 110.04.
- Bunds are higher in-fitting with global counterparts as macro updates from the Eurozone remain light for today’s session thus far; focus ultimately lies on Flash PMIs on Friday. Bunds have taken out a slew of highs from last week with the next upside target coming via the 133 mark with the 30th October high just above at 133.02.
- Ahead of the BoE TSC Hearing, the 2038 Gilt auction was fairly weak vs the prior outing (pre-Budget). Gilts topped 94.50, but has since edged back below that level to a current 94.25. The TSC Hearing is currently ongoing at time of publish; so far, BoE’s Mann has repeated her familiar hawkish rhetoric, whilst Governor Bailey largely reiterated comments made at the last BoE meeting.
- UK sells GBP 3.25bln 3.75% 2038 Gilt: b/c 2.74x (prev. 3.28x), average yield 4.558% (prev. 4.131%) & tail 0.6bps (prev. 0.1bps)
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are on the back foot, having initially started the European session with incremental losses. Pressure in the complex accelerated following commentary from Russia’s Kremlin which noted that, “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”. On the supply front, Equinor said production has restarted at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield. Brent’Jan 25 sits towards the bottom end of a USD 72.72-73.53/bbl range.
- Precious metals are on a firmer footing continuing the price action seen overnight. XAU specifically caught a bid owing to its safe-haven status, following the aforementioned geopolitical updates via Russia’s Kremlin.
- Base metals began the European session entirely in the green, benefiting from the positive risk tone overnight and amid support pledges by Chinese officials. Some pressure, with sentiment hit following the above geopolitical related headlines.
- Equinor (EQNR NO) says production has restarted at its Johan Sverdrup oilfield; expects the oilfield to produce at 2/3 of normal capacity during morning hours today. Still working to restore full output capacity.
- Chinese October crude iron ore output -4.1% Y/Y at 86.45mln tonnes, according to stats bureau. Alumina output +5.4% Y/Y at 7.43mln metric tons. Lead output -5.3% Y/Y at 661k tons. Zinc output -9.5% at 565k tons.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- EU HICP Final MM (Oct) 0.3% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. -0.1%); HICP Final YY (Oct) 2.0% vs. Exp. 2.0% (Prev. 2.0%); HICP-X F&E Final YY (Oct) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7 (Prev. 2.7%); HICP-X F, E, A, T Final MM (Oct) 0.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.2%); HICP-X F,E,A&T Final YY (Oct) 2.7% vs. Exp. 2.7% (Prev. 2.7%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer announced the relaunch of UK-India free trade talks, while it was also reported that Starmer met with Japanese PM Ishiba and agreed to start “2 + 2” economic and trade cooperation talks between the UK and Japan.
- ECB’s Panetta says the ECB should move to a neutral monetary stance, or expansionary if necessary; forthcoming change in the US govt adds uncertainty to the inflation outlook. Still a long way from the neutral rate. ECB needs to give more explicit indications of its policy rate intention.
- BoE Governor Bailey says services inflation is still above level that is compatible with on-target inflation. Says BoE must watch services inflation carefully. Says a gradual approach to removing monpol restraint will help observe risks to the inflation outlook.
- BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli says we have seen a fall in services inflation and wage settlements; sees risks to inflation on both sides.
- BoE’s Taylor says disinflation is unfolding as we should expect.
- BoE’s Mann says forward-looking price and wage indicators have been flat and above target for four months, raises risk of inflation persistence. Says financial market inflation expectations suggest BoE will not get to 2% inflation in the forecast horizon. Latest Budget offers opportunity for firms to realise price increases that are inconsistent with 2% inflation target. Even before the Budget, higher minimum wage was causing firms problems in maintaining wage differentials.
- Moody’s says total industry costs from Britain’s review into motor finance commissions could reach GBP 30bln
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump is said to be pressuring senators to confirm Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, according to Axios. However, it was also reported that Trump admitted Gaetz may not be confirmed by the Senate, according to NYT.
GEOPOLITICS
- Against the backdrop of Amos Hochstein’s visit to Beirut – the US administration is warning “not to read too much” his visit as a sign that a deal may be imminent – as negotiations are ongoing, via Kann News’s Stein
- Iranian Foreign Minister says “We consider the recent Israeli aggression on our territory a new attack and deserves a response from our side”
- Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to the US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with ‘some comments’ on content, according to a senior Lebanese politician who stated the US ceasefire proposal is the most serious attempt yet to end the fighting.
- Hezbollah said it bombarded a gathering of Israeli enemy forces south of the town of Khiam, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli Foreign Minister urged the UN to pressure Iraq after attacks by pro-Iran factions and said the government of Iraq is responsible for any actions that occur within or from its territory, according to Sky News Arabia and Asharq News.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said new EU and UK sanctions against Iran are unjustified, baseless and contradict international law.
- Iranian Ambassador to Russia said there are no obstacles to concluding a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran, according to Asharq News.
OTHER
- Russia’s Kremlin says the updated nuclear doctrine signed by Putin is a “very important text”, “Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in an event of aggression”
- Ukraine reportedly makes first ATACMS strike inside Russia, according to Ukraine press.
- US Ambassador to the UN said on Monday that the US will announce additional security assistance for Ukraine in the coming days, according to Reuters.
- French President Macron said US President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine the use of US-provided weapons to strike inside of Russia is a good decision, according to Reuters.
- Kremlin spokesperson said Russia is ready to normalise ties with the US but will not tango alone, while a spokesperson also said that Russia’s amendments to its nuclear doctrine have been formulated but not formalised yet, according to TASS.
- Russia and Chinese foreign ministers discussed ‘unprecedented’ strategic bilateral relations on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Brazil, according to Russian agencies cited by Reuters.
- EU foreign chief Borrell said the role of China is becoming bigger and bigger in the Ukraine war and without Iran and China, Russia could not support its military effort.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is in consolidation mode and sits comfortable above USD 90k.
- US President-elect Trump is to meet privately with Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong, according to WSJ.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following the similar performance stateside although gains were capped amid relatively quiet newsflow with no major fresh macro catalysts to drive price action.
- ASX 200 outperformed and notched a fresh record high with all sectors in the green and the advances led by a tech resurgence and strength in gold miners, while there were recent amiable Xi-Albanese comments and Morgan Stanley raised its ASX 200 target.
- Nikkei 225 traded higher and shrugged off a firmer currency as Japan aims for cabinet approval of an economic package soon.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses despite better-than-expected earnings from Xiaomi which failed to lift shares in the smartphone/EV maker, while support pledges by regulators did little to boost sentiment and the EU is also reportedly to demand tech transfers from Chinese companies in return for EU subsidies which would apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC asks financial institutions to stop buying offshore Local Government Financing Vehicle (LGFV) bond under southbound connect scheme, via Reuters citing sources
- PBoC’s Zhu said China will deepen Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor reforms, while it will support Hong Kong to develop the offshore yuan market.
- Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said they will support more quality enterprises to list and issue bonds in Hong Kong, as well as support Chinese financial institutions in Hong Kong to expand their business.
- China’s NFRA chief said Chinese banks have sufficient buffers for risk and they will implement the new CNY 60bln limit on local government debt and support financial institutions in debt restructuring to ease pressure on local governments. Furthermore, efforts will focus on improving financial service facilitation in the Greater Bay Area through interoperability of regulatory mechanisms and targeted policy issuance, while there are encouraging Chinese-funded banks and insurance institutions to set up their regional headquarters in Hong Kong to support its economic development.
- China CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said they will support listings inside and outside of the mainland.
- EU is reportedly to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies in return for EU subsidies, while the requirements would apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors, according to FT.
- Hong Kong jailed all 45 Hong Kong pro-democracy campaigners in the city’s largest security trial with legal scholar Benny Tai sentenced to 10 years in prison for subversion and student leader Joshua Wong sentenced to 4 years and 8 months, while it was later reported that the US strongly condemned the jailing of the democracy activists, according to AFP.
- Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa said they are aiming for cabinet approval of the economic package soon and it is crucial to boost pay for all generations with the package, while DPP head Tamaki also said that they aim for cabinet approval of economic measures by Friday.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive forex moves. Kato stated there is absolutely no change to their stance on forex and they have been seeing somewhat one-sided, sharp moves in the forex market since late September, while he reiterated they are closely watching FX moves with the utmost sense of urgency.
- RBA Minutes from the November 5th meeting stated the Board is vigilant to upside inflation risks and policy is needed to remain restrictive, while it saw no immediate need to change the Cash Rate and reiterated it is not possible to rule anything in or out on future changes in the Cash Rate. RBA Minutes noted their forecasts were based on the technical assumption for the Cash Rate to stay steady until mid-2025 and the Board considered what might warrant future change in cash rate or prolonged steady period, as well as discussed scenarios where policy would need to stay restrictive for longer or tighten further but also considered scenarios where a rate cut would be justified, including weak consumption. Furthermore, RBA noted the supply gap might be wider than assumed, necessitating tighter policy and rates might need to rise if the Board judged policy was not as restrictive as assumed, while it also stated that the Board had “minimal tolerance” for inflation above forecasts and would need more than one good quarterly inflation report to justify rate cut.
- Xpeng (XPEV/ 9868 HK) Q3 (RMB): adj eps -1.62 (prev. -1.61), revenue 10.1bln (prev. 9.91bln), vehicle deliveries 87-91k (+44.6-51.3% Y/Y).
- China’s chip advances stall as US curbs hit Huawei AI products, via Bloomberg.
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC trades mostly in the green; newsflow quiet – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 01:13 AM
- APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following the similar performance stateside although gains were capped amid relatively quiet newsflow.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% on Friday.
- FX markets are broadly steady, DXY holds above 106, EUR/USD sits below 1.06, JPY is a touch firmer.
- Crude futures held on to the prior day’s gains, fixed income markets were uneventful overnight.
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ HICP (Final), Canadian CPI, US Building Permits, NBH Policy Announcement, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Bailey, Lombardelli, Mann & Taylor, Fed’s Schmid, Supply from UK, Earnings from British Land, Sage, Ashtead, Severn Trent, Walmart, Xpeng, Lowe’s & Medtronic.
SNAPSHOT
More Newsquawk in 3 steps:
1. Subscribe to the free premarket movers reports
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 days
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stock markets mostly notched mild gains with outperformance in the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (+0.7%) which was buoyed by strength in Tesla (TSLA) (+5.7%) as it continued its post-Trump win rally, while sectors closed almost exclusively in the green with Energy and Communication Services the outperformers as the former was buoyed by the upside in the crude complex after Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy announced oil production at the Tengiz oilfield (600k BPD) was reduced by 28-30% due to technical works and Equinor’s Sverdrup (720k BPD) output was halted.
- SPX +0.39% at 5,894, NDX +0.71% at 20,539, DJIA -0.13% at 43,390, RUT +0.11% at 2,306.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Senior administration official said the Biden administration urges Congress to approve roughly USD 100bln for various disaster relief programmes after deadly hurricanes.
- US President-elect Trump is said to be pressuring senators to confirm Matt Gaetz as Attorney General, according to Axios. However, it was also reported that Trump admitted Gaetz may not be confirmed by the Senate, according to NYT.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks traded mostly in the green following the similar performance stateside although gains were capped amid relatively quiet newsflow with no major fresh macro catalysts to drive price action.
- ASX 200 outperformed and notched a fresh record high with all sectors in the green and the advances led by a tech resurgence and strength in gold miners, while there were recent amiable Xi-Albanese comments and Morgan Stanley raised its ASX 200 target.
- Nikkei 225 traded higher and shrugged off a firmer currency as Japan aims for cabinet approval of an economic package soon.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp swung between gains and losses despite better-than-expected earnings from Xiaomi which failed to lift shares in the smartphone/EV maker, while support pledges by regulators did little to boost sentiment and the EU is also reportedly to demand tech transfers from Chinese companies in return for EU subsidies which would apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors.
- US equity futures (ES +0.1%, NQ +0.2%) were marginally higher following the prior day’s mild gains but with the upside limited by a lack of drivers.
- European equity futures are indicative of a positive cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.1% on Friday.
FX
- DXY was contained after the prior day’s losses and amid the absence of any major catalysts in a week with very little in the way of key events from the US aside from Nvidia earnings, Flash PMIs and Fed speakers.
- EUR/USD held on to most of yesterday’s spoils but with upside capped by resistance around the 1.0600 level.
- GBP/USD traded sideways with a firm footing at the 1.2600 handle with participants looking ahead to BoE comments at the MPC Treasury Committee hearings.
- USD/JPY continued its pullback from above 155.00 to test 154.00 to the downside where it found some support, while there were few catalysts to drive price action although Finance Minister Kato reiterated the familiar jawboning that it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive FX moves.
- Antipodeans conformed to the uneventful mood across the FX space after the lack of fireworks from the RBA’s November meeting minutes which stated the Board is vigilant to upside inflation risks and policy is needed to remain restrictive, while it saw no immediate need to change the Cash Rate and noted it is not possible to rule anything in or out on future changes in the Cash Rate.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1911 vs exp. 7.2305 (prev. 7.1907).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures were rangebound after yesterday’s choppy performance amidst thin newsflow and a lack of major catalysts.
- Bund futures traded uneventfully after reclaiming the 132.00 level and with little on the calendar out of the eurozone scheduled for Tuesday aside from the final October EU inflation data.
- 10yr JGB futures eked mild gains in quiet trade amid the absence of data releases from Japan and with a muted reaction seen despite the stronger demand at the latest enhanced liquidity auction for long- to super-long JGBs.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures held on to the prior day’s gains after benefitting from a weaker dollar and output-related disruptions.
- Spot gold remained underpinned following its recent return to above the USD 2600/oz level.
- Copper futures mildly gained alongside the mostly positive risk environment and support pledges by Chinese officials.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin steadily gained overnight and reverted to back above the USD 91,000 level.
- US President-elect Trump is to meet privately with Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong, according to WSJ.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- PBoC’s Zhu said China will deepen Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor and Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor reforms, while it will support Hong Kong to develop the offshore yuan market.
- Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng said they will support more quality enterprises to list and issue bonds in Hong Kong, as well as support Chinese financial institutions in Hong Kong to expand their business.
- China’s NFRA chief said Chinese banks have sufficient buffers for risk and they will implement the new CNY 60bln limit on local government debt and support financial institutions in debt restructuring to ease pressure on local governments. Furthermore, efforts will focus on improving financial service facilitation in the Greater Bay Area through interoperability of regulatory mechanisms and targeted policy issuance, while there are encouraging Chinese-funded banks and insurance institutions to set up their regional headquarters in Hong Kong to support its economic development.
- China CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said they will support listings inside and outside of the mainland.
- EU is reportedly to demand technology transfers from Chinese companies in return for EU subsidies, while the requirements would apply to batteries but could be expanded to other green sectors, according to FT.
- Hong Kong jailed all 45 Hong Kong pro-democracy campaigners in the city’s largest security trial with legal scholar Benny Tai sentenced to 10 years in prison for subversion and student leader Joshua Wong sentenced to 4 years and 8 months, while it was later reported that the US strongly condemned the jailing of the democracy activists, according to AFP.
- Japanese Economic Revitalisation Minister Akazawa said they are aiming for cabinet approval of the economic package soon and it is crucial to boost pay for all generations with the package, while DPP head Tamaki also said that they aim for cabinet approval of economic measures by Friday.
- Japanese Finance Minister Kato said it is important for currencies to move in a stable manner reflecting fundamentals and they will continue to take appropriate action against excessive forex moves. Kato stated there is absolutely no change to their stance on forex and they have been seeing somewhat one-sided, sharp moves in the forex market since late September, while he reiterated they are closely watching FX moves with the utmost sense of urgency.
- RBA Minutes from the November 5th meeting stated the Board is vigilant to upside inflation risks and policy is needed to remain restrictive, while it saw no immediate need to change the Cash Rate and reiterated it is not possible to rule anything in or out on future changes in the Cash Rate. RBA Minutes noted their forecasts were based on the technical assumption for the Cash Rate to stay steady until mid-2025 and the Board considered what might warrant future change in cash rate or prolonged steady period, as well as discussed scenarios where policy would need to stay restrictive for longer or tighten further but also considered scenarios where a rate cut would be justified, including weak consumption. Furthermore, RBA noted the supply gap might be wider than assumed, necessitating tighter policy and rates might need to rise if the Board judged policy was not as restrictive as assumed, while it also stated that the Board had “minimal tolerance” for inflation above forecasts and would need more than one good quarterly inflation report to justify rate cut.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu said Israel will carry out operations against Hezbollah even if an agreement is signed with Lebanon, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Lebanon and Hezbollah agreed to the US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with ‘some comments’ on content, according to a senior Lebanese politician who stated the US ceasefire proposal is the most serious attempt yet to end the fighting.
- US State Department spokesman said progress has been made in negotiations on the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, according to Axios. It was also reported that US envoy Hochstein headed to Beirut after receiving clarifications that they are able to reach an agreement, according to Al Jazeera citing Israel’s Channel 12.
- Israel launched a strike on central Beirut, according to a Reuters witness.
- Hezbollah said it bombarded a gathering of Israeli enemy forces south of the town of Khiam, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli Foreign Minister urged the UN to pressure Iraq after attacks by pro-Iran factions and said the government of Iraq is responsible for any actions that occur within or from its territory, according to Sky News Arabia and Asharq News.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry said new EU and UK sanctions against Iran are unjustified, baseless and contradict international law.
- Iranian Ambassador to Russia said there are no obstacles to concluding a strategic cooperation agreement between Russia and Iran, according to Asharq News.
OTHER
- US Ambassador to the UN said on Monday that the US will announce additional security assistance for Ukraine in the coming days, according to Reuters.
- French President Macron said US President Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine the use of US-provided weapons to strike inside of Russia is a good decision, according to Reuters.
- Kremlin spokesperson said Russia is ready to normalise ties with the US but will not tango alone, while a spokesperson also said that Russia’s amendments to its nuclear doctrine have been formulated but not formalised yet, according to TASS.
- Russia and Chinese foreign ministers discussed ‘unprecedented’ strategic bilateral relations on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Brazil, according to Russian agencies cited by Reuters.
- EU foreign chief Borrell said the role of China is becoming bigger and bigger in the Ukraine war and without Iran and China, Russia could not support its military effort.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- UK PM Starmer announced the relaunch of UK-India free trade talks, while it was also reported that Starmer met with Japanese PM Ishiba and agreed to start “2 + 2” economic and trade cooperation talks between the UK and Japan.
- ECB’s Vujcic said the risk of inflation undershooting has picked up.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
END
3C JAPAN
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
CHINA/USA PHILIPPINES
China not happy with the USA and Philippines new intelligence sharing and defense deal
(zerohedge)
China Fumes As US, Philippines Sign New Intelligence-Sharing & Defense Deal
Monday, Nov 18, 2024 – 10:10 PM
The Pentagon has made deeper, permanent inroads into southeast Asia, on Monday announcing a major new deal inked by the US and Philippine defense chiefs to share classified military information and technology.
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Philippine counterpart Gilberto Teodoro kicked off Austin’s visit to Manila this week with the signing of the General Security of Military Information Agreement. Monday’s events also included a closed-door meeting between the Pentagon chief and President Ferdinand Marcos.
The deal has been described as allowing the Philippines access to “higher capabilities and big-ticket items” from the US and “open opportunities to pursue similar agreements with like-minded nations,” according to Philippine Assistant Defense Secretary Arsenio Andolong.
Beijing is sure to also take note of the newly opened combined command and coordination center inside the Philippine military’s headquarters in the capital. Teodoro and Austin formally inaugurated it on Monday.
“This center will enable real-time information sharing for a common operating picture. It will help boost interoperability for many, many years to come,” Austin said at the ceremony. “It will be a place where our forces can work side by side to respond to regional challenges,” he added.
Philippine military chief General Romeo Brawner hailed the establishment of the joint command center, saying it will “enhance our ability to collaborate during crises, fostering an environment where our strengths combine to safeguard peace and security in our region.”
As expected, China blasted the development, with its foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian responding by warning any military agreement or security arrangement must not target “any third party or harm a third party’s interests – let alone undermine regional peace, exacerbate regional tensions.”
Of course, the US and the Philippines are already defense treaty partners, which has long injected extra tensions as rival patrols in regional waters come up against each other:
China has brushed aside an international ruling that its claims in the South China Sea have no legal basis, and has deployed navy and coast guard vessels that Manila says harass its vessels and stop them accessing some reefs and islands in the waters.
This has led to violent confrontations that have resulted in injuries to Filipino personnel and damage to their vessels in the past 18 months.
That has sparked concern the United States could be drawn into an armed conflict due to its mutual defense treaty with the Philippines.
This new military intelligence and defense tech sharing agreement, along with the inaugurated command center, further solidifies Washington’s presence in the region.
Dramatic scenes like the below have been on the increase of late:
On the other side of the globe, China seems bent on teaching the US a lesson, in expanding its own intelligence and military presence in places like Cuba, not far off America’s coast. Beijing without doubt sees its inroads into Latin America as a necessary response to America’s expanding Pacific presence.
END
Once Trump takes office, it should be very interesting to watch what goes on with respect to relations between China and the USA
(zerohedge)
Xi’s “Four Red Lines” For China Set To Clash With Trump’s ‘America First’ Trade Measures
Monday, Nov 18, 2024 – 11:00 PM
President-elect Trump is set to steamroll Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s ‘red lines’ communicated to President Biden this weekend, likely to be on display from day one after he enters the Oval Office for the second time on Jan. 20. This is especially given his campaign promises impose a blanket 60% tariff on Chinese goods, touted as key to a package of “America First” trade measures.
Xi conveyed that he’s willing and ready to work with the incoming Trump administration, during the meeting with Biden that took place on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru.
Xi told Biden: “The United States has recently concluded its elections. China’s goal of a stable, healthy, and sustainable China–U.S. relationship remains unchanged.” But the optics at the Peru summit strongly suggest lame-duck Biden had long already taken a backseat in terms of assertiveness over US-China relations…
“China is ready to work with the new U.S. administration to maintain communication, expand cooperation, and manage differences, so as to strive for a steady transition of the China-US relationship for the benefit of the two peoples,” Xi additionally conveyed to Biden. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan in follow-up emphasized of the “candid” and “constructive” talks–sure to be the last held face to face of the Biden presidency, that Biden “has worked hard to responsibly manage the competition” with China over four years to prevent things from spiraling into conflict.
The some two-hour weekend meeting included what’s being described as an olive branch from Xi, but more importantly a series of ‘red lines’ if Washington wishes to avoid a “new Cold War”.
“A new Cold War should not be fought and cannot be won. Containing China is unwise, unacceptable and bound to fail,” Xi told the American president.
President Xi broadly laid out four red lines as follows:
“The Taiwan question, democracy and human rights, China’s path and system, and China’s development right are four red lines for China,” Xi was quoted as saying.
“They must not be challenged. These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations.”
It as especially on the Taiwan question that Xi spoke with firmness, and specifics, at one point mentioning Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te by name (a rarity). He reiterated that Beijing views Taiwan as an integral part of the country and thus that Mr. Lai based on his articulated policies is a “separatist”. Xi further warned that the US “should not get involved in bilateral disputes over the relevant islands” in the South China Sea.
Xi said of his four red lines and the future of relations with the US, “Words must be trustworthy and actions must be fruitful. A person cannot stand without credibility. China always follows through on its words, but if the US side always says one thing and does another, it is very detrimental to America’s image and damages mutual trust.”
Again, these are the four red lines, which the Chinese leader urged Washington to avoid crossing, no matter the administration:
1) Supporting Taiwan independence.
2) Interfering in China’s democracy and human rights
3) Stifling China’s development path, e.g. by sanctions and trade restrictions.
4) Restricting China’s rights to advancement and development.
Below are more translated details of Xi’s words, with some commentary by regional watcher and analyst Arnaud Bertrand.
* * *
According to the Chinese readout (https://guancha.cn/internation/2024_11_17_755645.shtml…) here’s what he told Biden were the 7 “lessons of the past 4 years that need to be remembered”:
1) “There must be correct strategic understanding. The ‘Thucydides Trap’ is not historical destiny, a ‘new Cold War’ cannot and should not be fought, containment of China is unwise, undesirable, and will not succeed.”
2) “Words must be trustworthy and actions must be fruitful. A person cannot stand without credibility. China always follows through on its words, but if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another, it is very detrimental to America’s image and damages mutual trust.”
3) “Treat each other as equals. In exchanges between two major countries like China and the United States, neither side can reshape the other according to their own wishes, nor can they suppress the other based on so-called ‘position of strength,’ let alone deprive the other of legitimate development rights to maintain their own leading position.”
4) “Red lines and bottom lines cannot be challenged. As two major countries, China and the United States inevitably have some contradictions and differences, but they cannot harm each other’s core interests, let alone engage in conflict and confrontation. The One China principle and the three China-US joint communiqués are the political foundation of bilateral relations and must be strictly observed. Taiwan issue, democracy and human rights, development path, and development rights are China’s four red lines, which cannot be challenged. [Note: Bold text in the original] These are the most important guardrails and safety nets for China-US relations.”
5) “There should be more dialogue and cooperation. Under current circumstances, the common interests between China and the United States have not decreased but increased. Whether in areas of economy and trade, agriculture, drug control, law enforcement, public health, or in facing global challenges such as climate change and artificial intelligence, as well as international hotspot issues, China-US cooperation is needed. Both sides should extend the list of cooperation, make the cooperation cake bigger, and achieve win-win cooperation.”
6) “Respond to people’s expectations. The development of China-US relations should always focus on the wellbeing of both peoples and gather the strength of both peoples. Both sides should build bridges for personnel exchanges and cultural communication, and also remove interference and obstacles, not artificially create a ‘chilling effect.'”
7) “Demonstrate great power responsibility. China and the United States should always consider the future and destiny of humanity, take responsibility for world peace, provide public goods for the world, and play a positive role in world unity, including engaging in positive interaction, avoiding mutual consumption, and not coercing other countries to take sides.”
Funnily, all this is summarized in the official US readout (https://china.usembassy-china.org.cn/readout-of-president-joe-bidens-meeting-with-president-xi-jinping-of-the-peoples-republic-of-china-3/…) with this short sentence: “The two leaders reviewed the bilateral relationship over the past four years”. Talk about an understatement The language compared to the readout of the last Xi-Biden meeting in San Francisco one year ago is noticeably more forthright, especially on the U.S.’s lack of trustworthiness (“if the U.S. side always says one thing and does another…”). Looks like he’s getting very frustrated with U.S. duplicity.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
END
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/USA
Lebanon and Hezbollah agree to a USA proposed ceasefire. Israel not yet
(zerohedge)
Lebanon, Hezbollah Agree To US-Proposed Ceasefire With Israel After Especially Bloody 24 Hours
Monday, Nov 18, 2024 – 06:00 PM
It appears Netanyahu’s reported “gift” of a Lebanon ceasefire in the wake of Trump’s election victory is coming to fruition. Reuters and other international outlets are reporting that agreement on a US-proposed ceasefire has been reached.
“Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting.”
A Lebanese source, Ali Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, has said “Lebanon had delivered its written response to the U.S. ambassador in Lebanon on Monday, and White House envoy Amos Hochstein was travelling to Beirut to continue talks,” Reuters writes late in the day Monday.
Israel has yet to issue official comment, and much remains to be seen on whether it will actually take effect or hold:
“Lebanon presented its comments on the paper in a positive atmosphere,” Khalil said, declining to give further details. “All the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (U.N.) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions,” he said.
It comes as a bit of a surprise, given how violent the past 24 hours have been on both sides of the border.
At least five Lebanese were killed Monday due to an Israeli strike on the Zuqaq al-Blat area, with casualty figures expected to increase amid an emergency response. Over 30 were injured in the attack, others remain missing.
On the Israeli side of the war-ravaged border area, Israeli sources are saying a number of Hezbollah missiles scored direct hits on civilian areas:
A woman was killed and at least 17 people were wounded in several rocket barrages fired by Hezbollah on Monday, as the terror group launched more than 100 rockets at northern Israel and one missile at the country’s center throughout the day.
The woman, identified as Safaa Awad, 41, was killed and dozens of others wounded in the evening by a rocket that hit a three-story building in the northern town of Shfar’am after Hezbollah fired five projectiles at the Galilee.
Among the wounded victims were a woman aged 41 and a 4-year-old boy in serious condition, Rambam Hospital in Haifa said.
The medical center said a total of 56 victims were brought for treatment, mostly for acute anxiety. Among the victims were 18 children, the hospital adds.
There was also a major Hezbollah missile strike on Tel Aviv Monday:
Israeli media has also picked up on the breaking report of the ceasefire deal, also emphasizing there’s been no initial comment from the Israeli government:
Its terms require Hezbollah to have no armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River, which runs some 30 kilometers (20 miles) north of the frontier — clauses the terror group violated from the get-go.
Khalil claims the success of the initiative now depended on Israel, saying if Israel did not want a solution, “it could make 100 problems.
Lebanese officials are now saying the ball is in Israel’s court. Currently an Israeli ground offensive is still active, and Beirut has been heavily pummeled by Israel’s aerial offensive, which has also reached into central and northeastern Lebanon of late, especially the Bekaa Valley.
Like with Ukraine, President-elect Trump is pledging to quickly bring to an end wars which have Washington involvement; however, in a phone call last month he told PM Netanyahu to “do what you have to do” against Hezbollah and Hamas.
One career US diplomat in the Middle East region was cited in WaPo as saying “Netanyahu has no loyalty to Biden and will be focused entirely on currying favor with Trump.”
END
ISRAEL/ HEZBOLLAH/JERUSALEM POST
NO confirmation from Israel yet
(JerusalemPost)
Ceasefire in north? Lebanon, Hezbollah agree to US proposal for ceasefire with Israel – official
Hezbollah, a heavily armed movement backed by Iran, endorsed its long-time ally Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri to negotiate over a ceasefire.
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 18, 2024 23:35
Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting.
Ali Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, said Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon on Monday, and White House envoy Amos Hochstein was traveling to Beirut to continue talks.
There was no immediate comment from Israel.
Hezbollah, a heavily armed movement backed by Iran, endorsed its long-time ally Berri to negotiate over a ceasefire.
“Lebanon presented its comments on the paper in a positive atmosphere,” Khalil said, declining to give further details. “All the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions,” he said.
He was referring to UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended a previous war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006.
Hezbollah required to not operate in area
Its terms require Hezbollah to have no armed presence in the area between the Lebanese-Israeli border and the Litani River, which runs some 30 km (20 miles) north of the frontier.
Khalil said the success of the initiative now depended on Israel, saying if Israel did not want a solution, “it could make 100 problems.”
Israel has long claimed that Resolution 1701 was never properly implemented, pointing to the presence of Hezbollah fighters and weapons along the border. Lebanon has accused Israel of violations including flying warplanes in its airspace.
Khalil said Israel was trying to negotiate “under fire,” a reference to an escalation of its bombardment of Beirut and the Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs. “This won’t affect our position,” he said.
end
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL/TIMES OF ISRAEL
Hezbollah has seen much of its southern area of Lebanon smashed to bits, agrees to a ceasfire proposal but with comments
(Times of Israel)
Lebanese official says Hezbollah agrees to US ceasefire proposal with ‘comments’
Aide to parliament speaker, a Hezbollah ally, says ball in Israel’s court, confirms US envoy heading to Beirut; Netanyahu indicates Israel will act against Hezbollah even after deal
By Lazar Berman, Follow
Jacob Magid, Follow
ToI Staff and AgenciesToday, 1:24 am
Then-deputy chief of the Lebanese Hezbollah terror group Naim Qassem (R) attends a commemoration ceremony alongside former finance minister Ali Hassan Khalil (C) and Iran’s Ambassador in Lebanon Mojtaba Amani, at the memorial grave of slain Hezbollah commander Imad Mughniyeh on April 5, 2024. (Anwar Amro/AFP)
A top Lebanese official told Reuters Monday that Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a US proposal for a ceasefire with Israel, but have some comments on the content, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end the fighting.
There was no immediate comment from Israel.
A truce would come some two months into an Israeli offensive against the Iranian-backed terror group, which has attacked Israel daily since last October. Since the offensive was launched, Hezbollah has seen its leadership devastated and its arms supply greatly reduced.
Ali Hassan Khalil, an aide to Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, told Reuters that Lebanon had delivered its written response to the US ambassador in Lebanon on Monday, and confirmed that White House envoy Amos Hochstein was traveling to Beirut to continue talks.
Hezbollah endorsed its long-time ally Berri to negotiate over a ceasefire.
“Lebanon presented its comments on the paper in a positive atmosphere,” Khalil said, declining to give further details. “All the comments that we presented affirm the precise adherence to (UN) Resolution 1701 with all its provisions,” he said.
Khalil said the success of the initiative now depended on Israel, saying if Israel did not want a solution, “it could make 100 problems.”
US Envoy Amos Hochstein (L) meets with Lebanon’s Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri in Beirut on October 21, 2024. (AFP)
Hochstein delayed his departure to Lebanon earlier Monday, waiting for clarifications from Beirut on the Lebanese response to the most recent proposal. According to Axios, he received a response two hours later that convinced him to make the trip.
If the negotiations in Beirut are successful, Hochstein will travel to Israel on Wednesday, Axios said.
According to the Ynet news site, the US believes there’s a greater than 50% chance a deal will be reached, though numerous outlets quoted officials from the United States, Lebanon and Israel cautioning that this wasn’t certain.
A leaked draft of the US proposal published by the Kan public broadcaster earlier this month calls for full enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which was passed in 2006 to end the Second Lebanon War and calls for Hezbollah to disarm and withdraw its forces north of the Litani River.
The most recent draft includes a 60-day transition period in which the Israel Defense Forces would withdraw from southern Lebanon, the Lebanese military would deploy close to the border, and Hezbollah would move its heavy weaponry north of the Litani, Axios reported.
AFP reported Monday that Beirut had largely endorsed the draft, and was preparing final comments before sending a response to Washington. The news agency quoted a government official who has been following the talks closely, saying: “we have made a lot of progress. Lebanon has a very positive view on this proposal.”
Smoke billows above Khiam following an Israeli airstrike targeting the southern Lebanese village on November 18, 2024, amid he ongoing war between Israel and the Hezbollah terror group. (AFP)
“We are finalizing our last remarks about the US wording of the draft,” the official added, according to AFP. Another government official reportedly said Beirut was “waiting for US special envoy Amos Hochstein to arrive so we can review certain outstanding points with him.” Both sources said Israel had not yet responded to the truce plan.
Reuters reported that Beirut had already submitted a written response to the draft.
The reports came after US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Monday that the Biden administration was “making progress” toward an agreement, but declined to give more specifics.
According to Axios, the matter of which countries will make up an international committee to oversee the agreement’s implementation, and the matter of Israel’s freedom to operate in southern Lebanon even after it has formally withdrawn, remain contentious, as was previously reported.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the plenum of the Knesset, in Jerusalem, on November 18, 2024. (Chaim Goldberg/Flash90)
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed the efforts to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon, and indicated that Israel would need to continue to operate militarily against the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah even if a deal is reached.
“The most important thing is not [the deal that] will be laid on paper,” Netanyahu said. “Even if there is a paper [setting out an agreement], worthy though it may be, we will be required, in order to ensure our security in the north (of Israel), to systematically carry out operations — not only against Hezbollah’s attacks, which could come. Even if there is a ceasefire, nobody can guarantee it will hold. So it’s not only our reaction, a preventive reaction, a reaction in the wake of attack, but also the capacity to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening.”
“We will not allow Hezbollah to return to the state it was in on October 6, 2023,” he stressed.
Over the course of the speech, Netanyahu repeatedly criticized the Biden administration’s judgment and policies at major junctions in Israel’s ongoing war against Iran and its proxies, both against Hezbollah in Lebanon and against the Hamas terror group in the Gaza Strip, whose October 7, 2023, attack started the war.
Beginning the day after the start of the Hamas attack, Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the northern border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza.
Hezbollah has since expanded its attacks to also target cities in central and northern Israel with rockets, in addition to the attacks on the border, though in recent days the IDF has seen a decrease in the number of attacks.
Medics at the scene of an impact of rocket fragments between Ramat Gan and Bnei Brak in central Israel, November 18, 2024. (Magen David Adom)
Some 60,000 residents were evacuated from northern towns on the Lebanon border shortly after Hamas’s October 7 onslaught, amid fears Hezbollah would carry out a similar attack, and increasing rocket fire by the terror group.
The attacks on northern Israel since October 2023 have resulted in the deaths of 44 civilians. In addition, 70 IDF soldiers and reservists have died in cross-border skirmishes and in the ensuing ground operation launched in southern Lebanon in late September.
Two soldiers have been killed in a drone attack from Iraq, and there have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries.
The IDF estimates that some 3,000 Hezbollah operatives have been killed in the conflict. Around 100 members of other terror groups, along with hundreds of civilians, have also been reported killed in Lebanon.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/opinion
this is a good read…
(JerusalemPost)
Hezbollah ‘under immense pressure’: Firm Israeli action needed in ceasefire agreement, expert says
“This is not just another routine agreement,” emphasized Prof. Baram. “This time, Israel is demanding more aggressive conditions.”
By SHAKED SADEHNOVEMBER 19, 2024 09:43
Against the backdrop of the emerging US-brokered ceasefire agreement in the North, the challenges anticipated in its implementation, and the pressures on Hezbollah, Israel is at a pivotal juncture but must adopt a firmer stance against future threats, Professor Amatzia Baram, an expert in international relations and national security, told Maariv on Tuesday.
On Monday, the initial details of a ceasefire agreement being brokered by the United States and agreed upon by Israel were released.
The agreement includes significant changes to the existing arrangements, mainly addressing alterations to the composition of the international forces monitoring the border with Lebanon and stricter Israeli demands for the suppression of Hezbollah.
Amid these developments, US envoy Amos Hochstein is expected to arrive in Beirut.
Reports in Lebanese media indicated that the agreement involved a fundamental shift in the makeup of the international forces supervising the border. The new force will be led by the United States and France, departing from the UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which has been in effect since the Second Lebanon War. Moreover, Israel’s demands go beyond pushing Hezbollah north of the Litani River; they include the destruction of all the organization’s infrastructure beyond that line.
“This is not just another routine agreement,” emphasized Prof. Baram. “This time, Israel is demanding more aggressive conditions—not only to distance Hezbollah physically but to ensure that its facilities and infrastructure are completely destroyed. This is a significant escalation in Israel’s security doctrine against Hezbollah.”
Hezbollah taking the proposal seriously?
Baram noted that Hezbollah faces a complex situation with this proposal. “I believe Hezbollah is taking the proposal seriously because they are under immense pressure—militarily, economically, and politically. They realize that the continuation of the conflict harms them more than it does Israel.”
He added that Hezbollah has made a significant concession by deviating from its leader Hassan Nasrallah’s unified approach to the Gaza and Lebanon arenas. “This is a major concession. Hezbollah, with Iran’s backing, is willing to separate the two fronts. Iran has even authorized Hezbollah to independently decide the terms. This crucial shift reflects the gravity of their situation.”
A key point of contention in the agreement is an American letter presented to Israel. It grants legitimacy to Israeli military actions in Lebanon in the event of violations.
“This letter is the cornerstone of Israel’s strategy,” Baram explained. “It is not an official part of the agreement that Hezbollah and Lebanon are required to sign but an annex allowing Israel to act militarily in case of arms smuggling or Hezbollah’s return to the border.”
The letter has drawn fierce opposition from Hezbollah.
“Hezbollah views this letter as a violation of Lebanese sovereignty,” said Baram. “However, Israel must ensure the letter remains in effect because, without it, preventing Hezbollah’s return to the border becomes impossible.”
Baram asserted that if Hezbollah continues to resist the agreement’s terms, Israel must intensify military pressure.”The principle is clear—heightened military pressure on the Shiite population in Lebanon could compel Hezbollah to capitulate and accept the terms. This is entirely different from Gaza, where military pressure does not lead to the release of hostages, but in Lebanon, it works.”
He suggested focusing military efforts on Hezbollah’s infrastructure and strategic areas.
“They might comply with the agreement for two or three weeks, but they will eventually resume smuggling weapons through Beirut or Syria to the border. The American letter is designed to allow Israel to act beyond the Litani line if necessary, including through air or ground forces.”
One crucial condition Israel must demand, according to Baram, is the prevention of residents from returning to the border villages. “These villages served as military outposts for all intents and purposes. Their return must not be allowed,” he stated. “The villages adjacent to the fence were hubs of Hezbollah activity, and Israel must ensure they do not return.”
Baram clarified that while this demand is not officially part of the agreement, it is critical for Israel’s security. “We must not repeat past mistakes where we allowed continuous violations out of fear of war. This time, Israel must take the risk and act decisively.”
In conclusion, Prof. Baram underscored the need for Israel to fully enforce the agreement, including securing US approval for military actions.
“The American letter is not just a document—it is the authorization enabling Israel to act. It is not enough for the letter to exist; we need a government determined to implement it and prevent any violations.”
He warned that Hezbollah will likely breach the agreement sooner or later. “What is decisive is not just the agreement itself but Israel’s willingness to fight for its implementation. We cannot afford to return to the 2006 scenario where we compromised on fundamental principles out of fear of another confrontation.”
end
HEZBOLLAH/ISRAEL
Hezbollah projectile damages buildings, a bus in Tel Aviv area
Sirens blared in Tel Aviv in the Gush Dan and the Sharon and Shfela areas.
By YAEL HALFONNOVEMBER 18, 2024 20:49Updated: NOVEMBER 18, 2024 23:27
Five people were wounded in the Ramat Gan area in central Israel after a projectile crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon, Magen David Adom (MDA) said on Monday evening.
The IDF said an impact was identified, likely from interception debris, while the police district chief later contradicted this, noting a direct missile hit had been identified in the area.
The Ramat Gan municipality later said that an investigation conducted by security officials at the scene established that a missile had struck in the area.
In a later report, the IDF stated that following an examination at the site, the damage was caused by parts of a missile following a successful interception. According to the report, the interceptor missile hit the rocket at a high altitude, which broke Hezbollah’s rocket into several pieces.
As a result, the IDF noted, the rocket shards fell to the ground, causing damage and wounding civilians.
MDA reported it was transferring a 54-year-old woman in serious condition, three people in moderate condition, and one person who had sustained light wounds to the Rabin Medical Center-Beilinson Campus in Petah Tikva.
Israel Police stated the hit caused damage to several buildings and an empty bus nearby.
Police said that Tel Aviv District forces conducted searches to rule out the possibility of trapped individuals.
United Hatzalah paramedics recounted from the scene, “We provided assistance to a 54-year-old woman in serious condition, three people in moderate condition, and several people lightly wounded.”
“The victims are suffering from wounds, cuts, and bruises due to glass shards from windows that shattered as a result of the direct hit. Some of the wounded were evacuated in United Hatzalah ambulances that arrived at the scene,” they said, adding that United Hatzalah teams were caring for those suffering from anxiety.
Starting at 8:45 p.m. local time, multiple rocket sirens sounded across central Israel, including Tel Aviv.
Drone infiltration in North
Shortly following the sirens in central Israel, hostile aircraft intrusion alerts sounded in the Haifa area. The military subsequently noted it had intercepted a drone that had entered Israeli territory from Lebanon.
Later, hostile aircraft intrusion alerts were triggered in Eilat, which the IDF later said were a false alarm.
This is a developing story.
end
END
//ISRAEL/ICJ USA
Thune blasts ICC
(Times of Israel)
Incoming Senate majority leader threatens ICC with sanctions over case against Israelis
Senator John Thune warns US will impose restrictions on International Criminal Court if it moves ahead with arrest warrant requests against Netanyahu or other Israeli officials
By ToI Staff18 November 2024, 8:39 am
Senate Minority Whip John Thune, R-South Dakota, meets with reporters after he was elected to GOP leader, at the Capitol in Washington, November 13, 2024. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP)
Senator John Thune said Sunday that the US must pass legislation threatening the International Criminal Court with sanctions if it seeks arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other Israeli officials.
“If the ICC and its prosecutor do not reverse their outrageous and unlawful actions to pursue arrest warrants against Israeli officials, the Senate should immediately pass sanctions legislation, as the House has already done on a bipartisan basis,” Thune wrote on social media platform X.
Thune will become the majority leader of the Senate in early January when Republicans officially take over Congress. He was referring to a bill calling for sanctions on ICC officials that the House passed earlier this year.
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan has asked a pre-trial panel at the Hague to approve his request for arrest warrants against Netanyahu, former defense minister Yoav Gallant and three Hamas officials who have since been killed. Khan alleges that war crimes may have been committed during fighting in Gaza amid the ongoing war there with Hamas, sparked by the terror group’s October 7 onslaught.
Israel has steadfastly rejected the charges and portrayed the request as antisemitic, with some comparing it to a blood libel.
Thune indicated he is happy for current majority leader Chuck Schumer to pursue such legislation sanctioning the ICC, but said if he does not “the Senate Republican majority will stand with our key ally Israel and make this – and other supportive legislation – a top priority in the next Congress.”
Karim Khan, Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court looks up prior to a press conference in The Hague, Netherlands, July 3, 2023. (AP Photo/Peter Dejong)
In June, the House passed a bill that, if it became law, would cancel the US visas of ICC officials, restrict entry of, and place financial restrictions on any of the court’s officials who are seeking to detain or prosecute allies of the United States.
US President Joe Biden said at the time he was “strongly opposed” to the legislation which passed with a majority of 247-155, including with the support of 42 Democrats.
Filing the request for arrest warrants in May, the ICC’s chief prosecutor said there were reasonable grounds to believe that Netanyahu, Gallant, and Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Ismail Haniyeh and Mohammed Deif had committed war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar (left) speaks during a rally marking Al-Quds (Jerusalem) Day, in Gaza City, April 14, 2023 (Mohammed Abed / AFP); Ismail Haniyeh, the Qatar-based leader of Hamas, delivers a televised speech on May 15, 2024. (X/Screenshot; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law); Mohammed Deif (X/Screenshot; used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)
All three Hamas leaders were killed in recent months, and earlier this month, Netanyahu fired Gallant as defense minister.
Further complicating the case have been allegations that surfaced in recent weeks accusing Khan of sexual misconduct. The ICC has ordered an external investigation into the claims after an internal probe was closed within days. Khan has categorically denied all accusations, and said the sexual misconduct allegations align with a misinformation campaign against his office.
Some US senators have urged the court to wait on the arrest warrant decision until the sexual misconduct charges are clarified.
And last week Israel filed a request for the ICC to probe whether a judge recently appointed to the panel considering the arrest requests is impartial.
The court has no set deadlines for its final decision in the case but has generally taken about three months to rule on requests for arrest warrants in previous cases.
The Gaza war erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas led a massive cross-border attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people. The terror group also took 251 hostages.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/HAMAS/TUESDAY AFTERNOON
(JERUSALEM POST0
IDF intensifies operations in Gaza and Lebanon, kills hundreds of Hamas and Hezbollah terrorists
From mid-September of this year until mid-October last month, the IDF ripped apart Hezbollah’s top three levels of commander, including its chief, Hassan Nasrallah.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 19, 2024 17:36Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2024 17:55
From October 2023 – this August, the IDF invaded multiple parts of Gaza and successfully took apart all of Hamas’s 24 battalions.
From mid-September of this year until mid-October last month, the IDF ripped apart Hezbollah’s top three levels of commander, including its chief Hassan Nasrallah, destroyed approximately 70% of its long-range and most threatening rockets, and thoroughly cleared out all Hezbollah forces from southern Lebanon.
What has happened in the war since then?
In Gaza, since early October, the IDF has been in an on-and-off, more intense fight with Hamas in Jabalya.
On Tuesday, the IDF said it had killed 1,300 Hamas fighters there in the last approximately six weeks.
Although this would be a low number in terms of progress compared to the early months of the war, when the IDF sometimes killed several thousand Hamas terrorists in one month, it is far more than the IDF has killed over an average six weeks since February of this year, when the war largely slowed down (with an exception for a week in March at Shifa Hospital and five weeks in May-June in Rafah.)
IDF targets Hezbollah in Lebanon
IDF Division 99 continues with smaller skirmishes in central Gaza, and the Gaza Division continues with occasional smaller fights in Rafah.
Over the last week, the IDF has struck 150 Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, including 60 in Dahiya, Hezbollah’s top organizational area in Beirut, and 11 attacks in that area since Sunday of this week.
Since the start of the September 30 invasion, the IDF has killed around 1,500 Hezbollah fighters and many more in air strikes before that in September, as well as several hundred in the 11 months before that.
IDF Divisions 98 and 36 are penetrating deeper into Lebanon, in some cases even five kilometers from the border, to target larger Hezbollah bases and forces that have not yet been dealt with.
IDF Divisions 91 and 146 are still mopping up Hezbollah weapons and storage areas closer to the Israeli border, with less need for ongoing fighting.
On defense, the IDF has shot down 22 out of 27 drones launched against Israel since Thursday of last week. Unfortunately, some of the drones that have hit have caused deaths and serious injuries. The IDF has also shot down most of the 400 rockets fired on it recently by Hezbollah but again has suffered very significant injuries both this week in Shafaram and Ramat Gan as well as last week in Nahariya and elsewhere on two consecutive days.
Last week, there were also six killed IDF soldiers and four wounded in one single incident, and IDF soldiers are unfortunately expected to continue to be wounded or killed on a somewhat rolling basis as the invasion of southern Lebanon progresses.
ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH/.OPINION
How will Hezbollah factor into Lebanon’s future? – opinion
The best that Israel can hope for in the short term is to push Hezbollah’s armed forces far enough from the border to allow the displaced Israeli families of the North to return to their homes.
By NEVILLE TELLERNOVEMBER 19, 2024 01:17
No doubt Israel would ideally like to see Hezbollah completely removed as a military presence in Lebanon, and its dominance within the nation’s political life ended. Neither seems fully achievable in the present circumstances.
Hezbollah is a significant presence within Lebanon. Its military strength and capabilities are larger and more powerful than Lebanon’s armed forces. It draws popular support from its vast network of schools, clinics, youth programs, and other social services.
Financed partly by Iran, it is also funded by sympathetic Lebanese business interests, by the business enterprises that it runs itself, and via the financial institutions that launder the money it earns from organized criminal activities, including narcotics trafficking and counterfeiting European currency.
Politically, also, it is a force to be reckoned with. The group has participated in Lebanese elections since 1992. It entered the cabinet for the first time in 2005 and has held seats in each Lebanese government since. The situation in which current government is an interim one, and the country lacks a president, is very largely, though not entirely, the result of Hezbollah manipulation. Although Israeli policymakers want to clip Hezbollah’s political wings, they know better than to become entangled in the arcane complexities of Lebanon’s political system.
In any case, there is every sign that the Lebanese themselves are becoming disillusioned with Hezbollah. An Arab Barometer survey published in September found that 70% of the Lebanese population does not trust Hezbollah, and the 30% who do are almost entirely Shi’ite citizens. Only 9% of Sunnis and Druze, and just 6% of Christians have any trust in Hezbollah.
The best that Israel can hope for in the short term is to push Hezbollah’s armed forces far enough from the border to allow the displaced Israeli families of the North to return to their homes.
Until the Litani?
LEBANON’S LITANI river runs north to south through the country, then takes a sharp turn toward the Mediterranean sea. Hezbollah operates from the territory between the river and Israel’s northern border, known as the Blue Line. Varying in width between 6 and 28 km., it also houses 10,000 UNIFIL troops engaged in ineffective attempts to control an openly defiant Hezbollah.
A word about the Blue Line: Since Lebanon never signed a peace treaty with Israel after the Arab-Israeli war of 1948, no international border separating them has ever been agreed. In 2000, however, a demarcation line was drawn by the UN to confirm Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon following the 1978 and 1982 conflicts.
Along certain sections, UNIFIL has marked the position of the line on the ground with blue barrels – more than 270 of them – giving rise to the “Blue Line” designation. Stretching for about 120 km. from the Mediterranean coast in the west up to the Golan Heights in the east, it has been serving as a de facto border.
On October 30, Lebanon’s MTV website reported that intensive ceasefire talks had been taking place led by Amos Hochstein, US President Joe Biden’s special envoy to Lebanon. As a result, the website claimed, Hezbollah had agreed to move all its weapons to north of the Litani and establish a demilitarized zone in the area south of the river.
It also claimed that Hezbollah was no longer insisting on being directly connected to events in Gaza. The group’s late leader, Hassan Nasrallah, had insisted that Hezbollah’s assault on Israel was in support of Hamas, and that a ceasefire in Lebanon would be tied to a ceasefire in Gaza.
Lebanese parliament speaker Nabih Berri is reported to have insisted that the terms of UN Resolution 1701 must be the basis of any agreement: “It’s out of the question to change the wording of UN Resolution 1701 even by one word,” he said. Hochstein has been traveling between Lebanon and Israel seeking an agreement that abides by the resolution.
Adopted unanimously in 2006, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 notably does not mention Hezbollah. It refers directly only to the two UN member states, Lebanon and Israel, maintaining the fiction that Lebanon is in a position to control rogue militias operating within its sovereign territory. In the UN’s fantasy world, the Lebanese government can order Hezbollah to stop attacking Israel and enforce its order.
So the resolution calls for all armed groups in Lebanon to be disarmed, maintaining that the only armed force in the country must be that of the Lebanese state. As for an agreed border between Israel and Lebanon, the resolution says that ultimately it is up to the states concerned to determine its exact path but that in the interim the Blue Line must be respected. UNIFIL was charged with ensuring compliance.
THAT, OF course, was where the well-intentioned resolution failed. Like the Lebanese government, UNIFIL found itself impotent against the rampant Hezbollah military machine. Starting on October 8, 2023, Hezbollah started firing missiles indiscriminately into Israel. With tens of thousands of residents being evacuated from their homes, the least Israel could do was to try to deter Hezbollah by meeting fire with fire.
At the same time, Israel began effectively weakening both Hezbollah and Hamas by eliminating its leaders, destroying its command and control centers, and depleting its manpower. Now, with the whole of Hezbollah’s senior command structure, including its long-time leader Nasrallah, removed, the organization may well be prepared to negotiate a deal.
Hochstein must have been heartened to receive a call from president-elect Donald Trump on November 8. Israeli media, quoting a Lebanese MTV channel report, said Trump told him: “Go and finish your work and make a deal with Lebanon.”
On November 11, the media reported that Israel’s Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer had flown to the US for talks with senior White House officials regarding a Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire deal. Washington officials had already confirmed that there had been progress in the Hochstein-led discussions. “The chances are increasing for a settlement in Lebanon,” they told Ynet.
Then, on November 13, The Washington Post reported that Trump and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, had been told by one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close aides that Israel is intent on finalizing a ceasefire deal in Lebanon. The idea is to provide an early foreign policy win to the president-elect as he assumes office. Two days later, sure enough, Reuters reported that the US ambassador to Lebanon, Lisa Johnson, had submitted a draft truce proposal to Lebanon’s speaker Berri.
As the saying goes: “Half a loaf is better than no bread.” If the half-loaf includes an end to Hezbollah’s missiles and its troops being removed north of the Litani River, then it is a compromise worth accepting.
The writer is the Middle East correspondent for Eurasia Review. His latest book is Trump and the Holy Land: 2016-2020. Follow him at: http://www.a-mid-east-journal.blogspot.com
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
A risky strike: Several killed after alleged IAF strike in Beirut – report
The airstrike was unusual as it occurred in a part of Beirut close to several Lebanese government buildings not affiliated with Hezbollah.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 18, 2024 20:12Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2024 03:41
Four people were killed, and a few others were wounded in a reportedly Israel Air Force strike in northern Beirut, Army Radio reported on Monday, citing Lebanese reports.
The airstrike was unusual as it occurred in a part of Beirut close to several Lebanese government buildings not affiliated with Hezbollah per se, as well as foreign diplomatic buildings.
The strike reportedly came without prior warning.
Taking a risk
The IDF has not commented on the strike but has struck riskier targets in Lebanon following further Israeli casualties from ambushes by the terrorist organizations and rockets and drones striking Israeli civilian areas.
The increasing aggressiveness by Israel led commentators to believe that this could pressure the Lebanese government into accepting more of Israel’s terms for a ceasefire.
The IDF has overall cleared out Hezbollah’s weapons from certain areas within four to five kilometers of the southern Lebanon border.
end
ISRAEL./HEZBOLLAH/LATE THIS AFTERNOON:
Netanyahu Signals Rejection Of Lebanon Truce: ‘Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah’
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 03:20 PM
Late Monday Lebanese sources had said that Hezbollah has agreed to a US-proposed ceasefire plan. But by the close of the day it became clear that Israel has yet to formally sign off. “Lebanon and Hezbollah have agreed to a U.S. proposal for a ceasefire with Israel with some comments on the content, a top Lebanese official told Reuters on Monday, describing the effort as the most serious yet to end to the fighting,” Reuters reported.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu initial reaction was to say that Israeli will still operate militarily against Hezbollah in response to attacks, even in the scenario a ceasefire deal is reached. This seems to reflect a belief that Hezbollah won’t uphold its end of a potential ceasefire even if formally enacted.
“The most important thing is not (the deal that) will be laid on paper,” Netanyahu told the Knesset. “We will be forced to ensure our security in the north (of Israel) and to systematically carry out operations against Hezbollah’s attacks… even after a ceasefire.”
“Even if there is a paper [setting out an agreement], worthy though it may be, we will be required, in order to ensure our security in the north (of Israel), to systematically carry out operations — not only against Hezbollah’s attacks, which could come.”
He continued, “Even if there is a ceasefire, nobody can guarantee it will hold. So it’s not only our reaction, a preventive reaction, a reaction in the wake of attack, but also the capacity to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening.” Netanyahu concluded by emphasizing, “We will not allow Hezbollah to return to the state it was in on October 6, 2023.”
US special envoy Amos Hochstein is in Lebanon on Tuesday, where he’s described “very productive” meetings with top Lebanese officials. He says that a deal to end the fighting is “within our grasp”. Hochstein is expected to be in Israel by Wednesday.
Lebanese officials are now saying the ball is in Israel’s court. Currently an Israeli ground offensive is still active, and Beirut has been heavily pummeled by Israel’s aerial offensive, which has also reached into central and northeastern Lebanon of late, especially the Bekaa Valley.
But the skepticism expressed by Netanyahu is rooted in the long-running demand that Hezbollah withdraw its forces to regions north of the Litani River, in order to establish an indefinite buffer zone. Israel also wants its military to be able to patrol southern Lebanon after that point to ensure no continued missile or drone attacks on northern Israel.
Hezbollah has considered this demand an impossibility, and thus this week’s international reports suggesting a deal has been reached are premature. But Netanyahu has signaled he’s willing to contemplate a deal ahead of Trump entering the White House.
This is especially as the last 48 hours have seen hundreds of rockets rain down on Israeli cities, some reaching into Tel Aviv shopping districts, as Israel keeps up its devastating airstrikes.
ISRAEL/GAZA/HAMAS
Hamas’s last bastion: What the fall of Jabalya could mean for a hostage deal – analysis
The IDF’s 162nd Division has severely disrupted Hamas’s attempts to rebuild its forces in the northern Gaza Strip.
By AVI ASHKENAZINOVEMBER 19, 2024 10:11
Jabalya, in the northern Gaza Strip, has become a symbol of heroism for Hamas, and the IDF believes that the fall of the refugee camp could open the door to advancing a hostage deal.
The IDF’s 162nd Division has severely disrupted Hamas’s attempts to rebuild its forces in northern Gaza over the past two months.
Jabalya has become symbolic for Hamas, making the restoration of the Jabalya Battalion a priority for the terror group. It is estimated that approximately 3,000 terrorists regrouped in the camp.
The IDF‘s 162nd Division executed a tactical maneuver that resulted in encircling Jabalya from the south and creating a barrier between Hamas terrorists in Gaza City and those in Jabalya.
The thousands of terrorists were left with two choices: fight to the death or surrender to IDF troops.
So far, some 1,200 terrorists have been eliminated, and an equal number have surrendered to the IDF. Several dozen are believed to have escaped southward through the crossings.
The IDF’s current challenge is dealing with the most hardened core of Hamas terrorists — the “jihadists,” who are expected to fight to the last bullet.
The IDF is also learning lessons from the recent events in Jabalya and Beit Lahiya.
Any building identified as harboring terrorists or explosives is destroyed, either by air force strikes, tank fire, or combat engineers.
The IDF is detecting increasing action by the hardened core of terrorists that remain in Jabalya. This involves only a few hundred individuals, but the fighting against them is far more complex.
Hostage deal efforts
The IDF believes that the final fall of Jabalya will usher Hamas into a new era and ultimately enable the renewal of hostage deal efforts.
This is why Mossad chief David Barnea, Shin Bet head Ronen Bar, and the military leadership have been urging the political echelon in recent days to take advantage of the emerging situation in northern Gaza to advance efforts for the release of the 101 hostages held by Hamas.
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH RUSSIA
IDF finds Russian arms in Hezbollah possession, some manufactured as recently as 2020 – report
According to the report, 60-70% of the weapons seized by Israel during the beginning of the operation were Russian-made.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 19, 2024 10:52
IDF soldiers have come across several troves of Russian weapons in Hezbollah’s possession in southern Lebanon, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.
Some of the weapons were manufactured as recently as 2020, such as Kornet anti-tank missiles, which were transported from Russia, through Syria, and into southern Lebanon in recent years, the WSJ reported, citing a Syrian security official and a separate Arab official.
According to the report, Israeli military leaders were aware that Hezbollah possessed Russian-made weapons, but the ground operation allowed Israel’s defense establishment to uncover the extent to which Russian-made arms were supplied to Hezbollah.
IDF uncovering advanced Russian-made weaponry
The WSJ noted that due to Israel’s inability to access areas of southern Lebanon since 2006, the IDF was not fully aware of Hezbollah’s capabilities. As such, Israel was aware that Hezbollah held Soviet-era weapons, which were less sophisticated.
Israel is finding more advanced, newer, and larger numbers of Russian weaponry in southern Lebanon, which have allowed Hezbollah to continue to attack Israel, military analysts told the WSJ.
Kornet anti-tank missiles are frequently used in attacks against IDF soldiers, the report added.
Other Russian-made weapons seized by Israel in southern Lebanon reportedly include guided anti-tank missile systems, such as Metis, Konkurs, Fagots, and Saggers. These weapons were found less than a kilometer inside of southern Lebanon.
Additionally, according to the report, 60-70% of the weapons seized by Israel during the beginning of the operation were Russian-made.
END
ISRAEL /TURKEY/HAMAS
US warns Turkey against harboring Hamas leaders who left Qatar
‘We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organization should be living comfortably anywhere,’ especially in a major city of a US ally, says State Department spokesman
By Reuters and Jacob Magid Follow
18 November 2024, 11:36 pM
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, right, and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, shake hands during their meeting in Istanbul, Turkey, April 20, 2024. (Turkish Presidency via AP)
The United States warned Turkey on Monday against hosting Hamas leadership, stressing that American allies and partners should not harbor leaders of a terror organization.
An Arab diplomat told The Times of Israel on Sunday that senior members of Hamas’s leadership abroad left Qatar last week for Turkey, after Doha said it was walking away from efforts to mediate an end to the war in Gaza.
The diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity, downplayed the significance of the move for the terror group, stressing that Hamas’s leaders abroad already spend much of their time in Turkey, when they are not holding meetings in Qatar.
The departure of Hamas’s senior politburo from Doha was first reported by Israel’s Kan public broadcaster.
Asked about the reports, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller did not confirm them, but said he was not in a position to dispute them. He said Washington will make clear to Turkey’s government that there can be no more business as usual with Hamas.
Get The Times of Israel’s Daily Editionby email and never miss our top storiesNewsletter email addressGet it
By signing up, you agree to the terms
Miller added that some Hamas leaders are under US indictment and Washington believes they should be turned over to the United States.
“We don’t believe the leaders of a vicious terrorist organization should be living comfortably anywhere, and that certainly includes in… a major city of one of our key allies and partners,” Miller told reporters at a regular news briefing.
State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller answers questions during a news briefing at the State Department on July 18, 2023, in Washington. (AP/Nathan Howard)
A Turkish diplomatic source on Monday dismissed reports that Hamas had moved its political office to Turkey, adding that members of the Palestinian terror group only visited the country from time to time.
Qatar said last week it had told Hamas and Israel that it will suspend efforts to mediate a Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal until both sides show seriousness about resuming talks. Doha also said media reports that it had told Hamas to leave the Gulf Arab country were not accurate.
“Hamas political bureau members visit Turkey from time to time. Claims that indicate the Hamas political bureau has moved to Turkey do not reflect the truth,” the Turkish diplomatic source said.
From L to R: Senior Hamas official Zaher Jabarin, the chairman of the group’s consultative council Mohammed Ismail Darwish, known as Abu Omar Hassan, and the Palestinian movement’s senior official Khaled Mashaal receive condolences during the funeral of the Palestinian movement’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Qatari capital Doha on August 2, 2024. (Mahmud Hams/AFP)
Later on Monday, Hamas dismissed the reports as “rumors.”
NATO member Turkey has fiercely criticized Israel over its war against Hamas in Gaza and does not consider Hamas a terrorist organization.
END
ISRAEL //IRAN//OPINION
Has Netanyahu developed a new doctrine to finally strike Iran’s nuke program for real? – analysis
Why Netanyahu’s stance on Iran’s nuclear threat may now be shifting to aggression.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 19, 2024 20:23Updated: NOVEMBER 19, 2024 21:15
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu public and classified, but partially leaked, speeches at the Knesset on Monday may have signaled a major shift in doctrine about how to handle Iran’s nuclear program.
What is surprising about this shift is that it may be far more aggressive than in the past even though all of the prime minister’s most recent actions against Tehran seemed to signal utmost restraint.
To put it bluntly, on April 19 and October 26, he had two golden and unprecedented opportunities to attack and destroy the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program and he took a pass both times.Interestingly enough, on Monday he publicly took credit for passing on attacking the nuclear program, though he could have easily blamed the decision on pressure from the US.
Obviously, pressure from the US not to strike Iran’s nuclear program was a key reason why Netanyahu limited Israel’s counterstrikes (after Iran had fired around 300 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and dozens of cruise missiles at Israel over the course of its two attacks on Israel in April and October.)
But that is not the point.
Possible to strike Iran’s nuclear program
The point is that he was comfortable both with taking responsibility himself for that call, while at the same time saying that he would seriously explore the possibility of striking the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in the near future once president-elect Donald Trump takes office in two months.
Moreover, he said he would consider directly attacking Iran once Trump was in office, even though he contradicted Israeli military intelligence when he said that Iran is a long way away from figuring out how to deliver a nuclear weapon.
This last statement finally also explains why Netanyahu has been mostly silent as Tehran continues day after day and month after month to enrich more quantities of uranium to 60% levels and to cut off more of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s UN nuclear inspectors from checking up on the nuclear program.Netanyahu simply does not feel threatened yet. He does not like Iran’s uranium progress or its more apparent concealing progress from the IAEA.
Yet, as long as the Islamic Republic cannot deliver a nuclear weapon anywhere near Israel and is not close to that capability, he does not need to sweat.If all of the above is true, why does it seem like he has shifted to a potentially more aggressive strategy?First of all, he said so: he specifically said he will talk through concrete aspects of a potential strike on Iran’s nuclear program with Trump.But also it follows the trend of a changed Netanyahu in his approach to using force over the course of this war.All indications were that from 1996-1999 and from 2009-2023, Netanyahu talked tough, but was extraordinarily careful about using force and dramatic and unpredictable military moves.Until Hamas’s October 7 invasion, Netanyahu refused time after time to allow a deep invasion of Gaza or of Lebanon.He wanted to avoid big wars at all costs.But since then, he has seen Israel’s forces thoroughly militarily defeat all of Hamas’s 24 battalions as well as most of Hezbollah’s top weapons and leaders. Each of his military wins along the way in Gaza and Lebanon eventually led to riskier military moves in Gaza and Lebanon, which once again have mostly paid off.Likewise, with Iran, his first counterstrike on April 19 was relatively tiny. His next counterstrike on Tehran on October 26 was already much larger.After the first counterstrike, most of what Israel had done was kept relatively quiet. Following the second strike, everything was laid out in the open.Those observing the October 6, 2023-Netanyahu would conclude that he is afraid of attacking Iran’s nuclear program and the fact he has not done it as prime minister in over 18 years and during two golden chances this year, shows nothing has changed.Their supporting facts would be that Israel skipped an attack on the nuclear program despite:The unprecedented legitimacy to hit Iran in April and October this year because Tehran itself openly, directly, and massively struck Israel; that the threat of counterstrikes from Hamas and Hezbollah on Israel is the weakest in 18 years; and that the Israel Air Force actually ran circles around Iran’s air defense, instead of just estimating that it could.
But post-Gaza invasion and post-beeper Hezbollah attacks Netanyahu has shown that his initial hesitance over acting can transform into quite robust confidence the more he succeeds. Paradoxically, what seemed like weak and small successful attacks on Iran, then may have made him much more likely to try a grandiose attack to remove the nuclear program in one fell swoop, precisely because, while small, the direct attacks on Iran – that he might never have actually tried absent this war – succeeded. Add in that he feels released in terms of what he can do militarily and diplomatically with Trump coming into power in the US, and after 18 years in power, the stars may finally align for Netanyahu to give the order against Tehran’s nuclear program.
end
L
IRAN
Oil Slides On UN Report Stating Iran Agrees To Halt Near Bomb-Grade Uranium Production
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 11:00 AM
Oil prices are falling Tuesday on the headline that Iran has agreed to cease producing uranium which is enriched at near nuclear bomb grade levels.
Israeli and Western officials have long been worried that the more than year-long Gaza war, alongside the recent-tit-for-tat missile exchanges between Tehran and Tel Aviv, have accelerated the Islamic Republic’s push to achieve a nuke.
“Iran began enriching uranium at up to 60% levels in 2021,” Bloomberg reviews of what has put UN inspectors on edge.
“That material could quickly be upgraded to the 90% level typically used in nuclear weapons, prompting concern across Europe and the U.S. Iran still has enough fuel on hand to produce a handful of warheads, should its leadership make a political decision to move forward,” the report continues.
But then a key line based on a 12-page IAEA report:
Monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency said Tuesday that Iran has begun implementing measures “aimed at stopping the increase of its stockpile,” according to a 12-page report seen by Bloomberg News. The Islamic Republic’s engineers have already taken the first steps necessary to cap output, the report said.
Could this be the Trump effect happening in real time?
Tehran has expressed willingness to work with the incoming Trump administration, and is of course fully aware that some pro-Israel hawks have already been placed in key positions (most notably Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary, and Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel).
But some top Iranian officials are still waiving the nuclear threat around…
witter.com/IranObserver0/status/1858600287017013383?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1858600
The reality is that Tehran knows that Trump will carry a big stick, and will be more willing to give Israel a wide berth for conducing offensive action against the Islamic Republic. Tehran could now be trying to show President-elect Trump that it’s taking serious steps to deescalate things.
end
/RUSSIA///UKRAINE
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Kremlin Says Biden “Adding Fuel To The Fire” By Approving Missile Strikes In Russia
Monday, Nov 18, 2024 – 09:45 PM
By Chris Summers of Epoch Times
The Kremlin has accused President Joe Biden of, “adding fuel to the fire” after it was reported he had given his approval to Ukraine using U.S.-made missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov is reported by the BBC to have said on Monday that the Biden administration was “continuing to stoke tension around this conflict.”
According to anonymous U.S. officials who spoke to media outlets, Biden has authorized Ukraine to use long-range missiles provided by the Pentagon to strike targets in the Russian region of Kursk.
Peskov told the Tass news agency, “If such a decision has indeed been formulated and communicated to the Kyiv regime, then, of course, this is a qualitatively new round of escalation of tensions, and a qualitatively new situation in terms of the involvement of the United States in this conflict.”
The Tass news agency, on its Telegram channel, said Peskov had described the idea of missile strikes inside Russia as “dangerous and provocative.”
Peskov referred journalists to a statement made by Putin in September, in which he said allowing Ukraine to target Russia would change “the very nature of the conflict dramatically.”
But Peskov said Putin was “open to any communication” but had not yet spoken to French President Emmanuel Macron, who was reported to be planning to call the Russian leader.
The UK and France have both supplied Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine, which could be used to hit targets in Russia, but so far, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and Macron have not given permission.
Starmer said they “need to double down” on support for Ukraine and insisted that the issue was “top” of his agenda at this week’s G20 summit in Brazil.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and recently deployed thousands of North Korean troops to the frontline, fighting alongside Russian forces.
Ukrainian forces launched a significant cross-border operation into Russia’s region of Kursk earlier this year. Intense fighting is ongoing as Russian forces attempt to reclaim lost territory. Ukraine seized several settlements and is still holding strategic positions.
In response, Russia has allowed 11,000 North Korean troops, volunteered by Pyongyang, to deploy on the frontline in the Kursk region to aid its fight.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pressuring the United States and NATO to allow his forces to use army tactical missile systems they have been supplied with to hit targets deep inside Russia, arguing Moscow has already escalated the conflict with the North Korean deployment.
On Monday, Zelenskyy said “long-range capabilities” were a vital part of his “victory plan,” which he fleshed out in the Ukrainian Parliament last month.
“Missiles Will Speak for Themselves”
“There’s been much said in the media today that we have received approval to take relative actions. But strikes are not carried out with words. These things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves,” Zelenskyy said on Monday.
Tass also reported that Viktor Bondarev, a senior Russian senator and former Russian air force commander-in-chief, said, “Russia has sufficient advanced capabilities to counter attacks by any weapons, including long-range weapons.”
Earlier this month, 34 Ukrainian drones attacked targets in Moscow, but the Russian defense ministry claimed the attack had been “thwarted.”
The defense ministry said the Ukrainians targeted the Kursk, Bryansk, Tula, Oryol, and Kaluga regions.
The Kremlin’s own Telegram channel has so far not commented on the reports about Biden approving missile strikes.
On Monday, it published photographs of Putin holding a “working meeting” with the governor of the Zaporozhye (Zaporizhzhia) region in occupied Ukraine, Yevgeny Balitsky.
Continue reading at Epoch Times
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Ukraine Launches First ATACMS Strike On Russia, Sending Markets Reeling Amid WW3 Fears
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 07:20 AM
About a day after President Biden authorized Ukraine to use the long-range US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike deeper into Russian territory, a new report suggests that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have hit a military installation in the western Bryansk region. This comes after Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine was changed and signed by President Vladimir Putin, indicating “the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.”
“For the first time, Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles,” RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday.
RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS. This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
witter.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1858798484184346865?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E18587984
“Indeed, for the first time, we used ATACMS to strike Russian territory. The strike was carried out against a facility in the Bryansk region, and it was successfully hit,” one source told the local media outlet.
Separately, media outlet Kyiv Post stated the 67th arsenal of the Main Directorate of the Missile and Artillery Directorate of Russia was hit. The facility reportedly had large stockpiles of anti-aircraft missiles, munitions for multiple launch rocket systems, artillery ammunition, and guided bombs, much of which was supplied by North Korea.
Kyiv Post noted:
Russian media sources, including residents on social networks, reported explosions coming from within the Karachev district, and suggesting that a “military base” was being attacked. The Russian Astra Telegram channel shared videos of the incident, while local reports said that there had been strikes on this arsenal in late 2023 and again in June and October this year.
Bloomberg revealed more details about the attack:
Russian Defense Ministry confirmed Ukrainian armed forces launched a strike with US-made ATACMS ballistic missiles at a military object in Bryansk region on the border with Ukraine, Interfax reports.
- 5 missiles were shot down, 1 damaged; no casualties reported
- Missile debris caused fire in a military installation
Here’s alleged footage of the strike:
Earlier, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that President Vladimir Putin signed new changes to Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine.
Peskov said the new modifications signify “the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.”
Peskov’s comments were made shortly after President Biden approved Ukraine’s use of ATACMS against military targets deep inside Russia.
In markets, US equity futures and European equities fell on the news.
Global bonds climbed on World War III threats. The yield on the US 10-year slid about seven basis points to 4.34% & dollar surged.
“The market reaction is logical, one could feel already yesterday that the tension, was rising,” said Andrea Tueni, head of sales trading at Saxo Banque France, who was quoted by Bloomberg, adding, “For the moment the market reaction is contained, some are still in a wait-and see- mode.”
Even though the Russian leader warned the US and its European allies against using ATACMS against Russian military facilities within its borders, which could spark a direct conflict, the Biden-Harris team of warmongers and the Europeans continued pushing the world closer to World War III.
One of Harris’ biggest supporters…
Meanwhile, Donald Trump Jr. views this ultra-dangerous ploy by the lame-duck Biden administration as a move by radical far-left Democrats in the White House to push the world dangerously closer to WW3 before his father takes office.
“The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives,” he said on X Sunday.
Users on the betting market website Polymarket have bid up the wager “Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?” from 11% at 0400 ET to around 18% at 0930 ET.
God help us all.
END
RUSSIA.UKRAINE/USA
Lavrov Warns “West Is Escalating Conflict” Just After Putin Signs Nuclear Doctrine Expanse Into Effect
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 09:25 AM
Starting in late September, Russia had unveiled its expanded nuclear doctrine which proposed a lowered threshold for Russian strategic forces’ use of nukes. This was due to the “emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies” – amid fiercer drone and missile attacks coming across the border from Ukraine. This change in nuclear doctrine has now been formally signed into effect by President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday, two days after President Biden authorized Ukraine to begin conducting long-range strikes inside Russia with US-made missiles.
Ukraine has already taken advantage of that approval, also on Tuesday, using a MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System to strike a military installation in the western Bryansk region. “For the first time, Ukraine’s Defense Forces struck Russian territory with ATACMS ballistic missiles,” RBC Ukraine news agency reported Tuesday.
RBC Ukraine said the military facility near the city of Karachev in the Bryansk region was successfully hit with ATACMS after six American-made missiles were fired (with Russia saying it intercepted five of them). This location was about 115 kilometers (71 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has described that the nuclear doctrine changes mean that “the Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression using conventional weapons against it and/or the Republic of Belarus.”
“An important element of this document is that nuclear deterrence is aimed at ensuring that a potential adversary understands the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation or its allies,” Peskov said.
Thus this is the key change and lowering of the threshold – that even conventional weapons used by an enemy could trigger nuclear retaliation if deemed enough of a threat against Russia and its sovereignty.
The Associated Press also spells out, “The new doctrine allows for a potential nuclear response by Moscow even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power.”
Alarmingly, Peskov has already said that a Ukrainian attack like today’s could potentially trigger it:
Asked Tuesday if a Ukrainian attack with longer-range U.S. missiles could potentially trigger a nuclear response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov answered affirmatively, pointing to the doctrine’s provision that holds the door open for it after a conventional strike that raises critical threats for the “sovereignty and territorial integrity: of Russia and its ally, Belarus.”
Also according to the newly expanded doctrine, in the event Western powers assist another nation in a major attack on Russian soil, those same Western powers will also be held responsible. This can trigger Russian nuclear launch. This appears to be why Peskov answered in the affirmative.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has addressed the nuclear doctrine change from Brazil’s Rio de Janeiro on the sidelines of the G20 Summit.
He asserted that Russia’s position is that nuclear war won’t happen, and that fundamentally Russian nuclear doctrine doesn’t differ from the United States’. But still, he added, Russia will “react accordingly” to Ukraine firing a US long-range missile.
He expressed hope that the West will study the update in Russia’s nuclear doctrine. “I hope that they [in the West] will read this doctrine. And not the way they read the UN Charter, seeing only what they need, but the doctrine in its entirety and interconnectedness,” Lavrov said.
“The West appears to be working towards escalating the Ukraine conflict,” he asserted. Meanwhile the US has indicated it won’t respond to Russia’s nuclear doctrine move. Let’s hope saner heads prevail at the White House, at least until Trump enters the Oval, after which serious efforts toward peace talks might begin and have a much greater chance.
Meanwhile, Medvedev also weighs in, and characteristically doesn’t hold back…
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
McCullough drops haymaker into urgent steps by POTUS Trump 47 to add to my expanding list (some overlap) but is salient being MAHA concerns on food & water safety & agriculture CANNOT supersede
the urgency of Immediate & complete market removal of all MALONE et al. mRNA gene vaccines (DNA also), Rescind 1986 Vaccine Injury Compensation Action liability protection, BAN Gain-of-Function GoF
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 18 |
Strong scholarship by Peter McCullough in his stack:
‘By Peter A. McCullough, MD, MPH
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Over the course of my career I have held positions with large numbers of individuals reporting as subordinates. I have learned that new administrations need to prioritize action items. It may take months or years to get key personnel appointed and onboarded in the US government.
I appeared on Real America’s Voice “Just the News” with former White House Correspondent John Solomon and Amanda Head just two days after the election to name some of the top public health priorities:
Immediate and complete market removal of all COVID-19 vaccines
Rescind 1986 Vaccine Injury Compensation Action ending liability protection for vaccine manufacturers
Ban gain-of-function dangerous pathogen research in US laboratories and perform a sweep to be sure the deadly germs are killed and Americans are safe
The decades old common concerns over food and water safety and agriculture issues can be handled by building consensus with stakeholders and accelerating initiatives that are already underway. Dangerous vaccines and gain-of-function research cannot wait for MAHA. Team Trump will need to muster courage and issue executive orders.’
mRNA gene-based vaccines by Pfizer, Moderna, BioNTech, made by Robert Malone, Albert Bourla, S Bancel, Sahin, Weissman et al.: the truth? as I said all along, mRNA shots NEVER worked, FAILED! day 1!
This is a truth POTUS Trump must accept & be brave enough to admit that OWS (warp speed) exercise on America was devastating, FAILED, all lockdowns, school closures & the Malone mRNA vaccine killed!
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 18 |
POTUS Trump was misled and deceived on all things COVID and the deadly untested mRNA gene vaccine. Power, money, liberty shredding. All of it. Lies!
The Malone Bancel et al. mRNA technology mRNA gene platform vaccines never ever worked and COULD NOT work! Those who continue to say they worked cannot provide any evidence of that. Mechanically could not, could not get to the respiratory mucosal lining, layer. Systemic vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies IgG and IgA (circulating) cannot get to the respiratory mucosa where what is needed is secretory IgA. It was all a fraud. The COVID pandemic, the response, the origin, the Malone mRNA vaccine. All of it. Our medical response killed most people.
Fraud clinical trial methods, sub-optimal, high risk of biased estimates of effects, reporting of relative risk reduction (RRR) of 95% when the actual merit measure the absolute risk reduction (ARR) was never reported and was the key metric for the public, this being a range of 0.7 to 1.1%…
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
The side effects and harms were catastrophic from the mRNA vaccines, and we must put a complete hard stop and full removal from market. Fo no adult or child. One may argue this could be a risk management situation where an elderly high-risk person or unhealthy sick child may be a candidate if parents, guardians are properly informed on benefits vs risks, and they make that decision. It is their decision, not mine. My opinion is still no. However. None of these vaccines.
They should have never been brought and all who did this must be investigated and prosecuted if did wrong as per courts and judges. The mRNA gene shots do not work, never worked and are deadly, with negative effectiveness and the vaccinated become infected and severely ill and can die. The damage to the immune system of children (innate) and acquired and adaptive immunity immediate and long-term is catastrophic. IgG4 class switch to tolerance and hence severe risk of illness, subversion of the innate immune system proper development, auto-immunity, original antigenic sin (immune priming, prejudice etc.). The existing sub-variants if you accept this COVID story (I do not entirely as is) are benign and of no consequence to healthy persons, children.
We continue to underestimate and disregard the dance between virus and host immune system. By implementing a mismatched sub-optimal vaccine where the vaccine spike (or antigen) does not match the existing circulating spike or viral antigen, we are inducing vaccinal antibodies that cannot hit the circulating viral antigen. This causes natural selection pressure to select for more infectious variants that could also be virulent when you continue to use mismatched non-sterilizing vaccine that do not sterilize the virus (stop infection, stop transmission) where induced antibodies do not get to maximal maturity, binding affinity and thus with circulating virus (if this were real), then you will have viral immune escape and this will go on forever. If you want this fraud to continue, you just keep vaccinating with the same failed mismatched vaccine spike (and resulting vaccinal antibodies) to dominant viral spike. Add to the fact that the vaccine antibodies could not reach the nasal, pharyngeal, upper respiratory mucosal layer where it is/was needed.
Forget all that stuff above too, just be guided by one thing, this being ‘no mRNA vaccine is needed now, not in future, for you or child’. No healthy child and I argue NO child is a candidate for the mRNA vaccines. There is no evidence this works or is safe or was needed. No evidence it saved one life! Just talk!
___
You must not wait for another catastrophic crisis (at times manufactured but we are prevented from making our own basic personal decisions or accessing needed drugs and response tools) to catch you off-guard. We must take charge and be prepared today so that we can enjoy peace of mind tomorrow.
Enter the Wellness Company as a solution and a willing participant in the health care conversation. From telemedicine, prescriptions, memberships, and supplements, TWC is leading America with alternative choices to the traditional health care model.
___
SLAY NEWS
| The latest reports from Slay News |
| Censored Autopsies Study Confirms Covid ‘Vaccines’ Caused 74% of ALL DeathsA heavily censored study has confirmed that Covid mRNA “vaccines” are responsible for surges in sudden deaths and deadly diseases.READ MORE |
| Experts Sound Alarm over ‘Shocking’ Spike in Strokes Among ‘Healthy’ Young PeopleHealth experts have issued a chilling warning to the public over a “shocking” spike in strokes among “healthy” young people.READ MORE |
| WW3 Fears Escalate After Biden Gives Order for Ukraine to Fire U.S. Missiles into RussiaFears of World War 3 have dramatically escalated after lame-duck President Joe Biden reported greenlit orders for Ukraine to fire American-made long-range missiles deep into Russia.READ MORE |
| House Republicans Launch Investigation into Wave of Political Targeting from Biden’s Lame-Duck DOJHouse Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-OH) is launching investigations into a reported wave of politically motivated actions taken by President Joe Biden’s lame-duck Department of Justice (DOJ).READ MORE |
| Supreme Court Deals Major Blow to Biden-Harris Admin’s Pro-Immigration AgendaPresident Joe Biden’s single term in the White House has been marked by an unusually high number of losses at the U.S. Supreme Court.READ MORE |
| Psaki: Democrats Are Lost in the ‘Wilderness’ with ‘No Clear Leader’ After Trump’s VictoryPresident Joe Biden’s former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki has warned that Democrats are currently lost in the “wilderness” with “no clear leader.”READ MORE |
| Federal Prosecutors Oppose Diddy’s Latest Bail Bid as Rapper Caught Trying to Contact Victims & WitnessesLawyers for Sean “Diddy” Combs are attempting to secure a new bail deal for the rap mogul, provoking pushback from federal prosecutors.READ MORE |
| Zelensky Optimistic That Trump Will Bring Swift End to Ukraine-Russia WarUkraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has voiced his optimism that President Donald Trump will bring peace to his nation.READ MORE |
| Russian Ballet Star, Who Outraged Putin by Blasting Ukraine War, ‘Leaps’ from 5th Floor Balcony, Plunges to DeathA top Russian ballet star, who had outraged President Vladimir Putin by publicly blasting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has plunged to his death after reportedly “leaping” from a fifth-floor balcony.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| LATEST NEWS: |
NEWS ADDICTS
| Even CNN is now covering Bucks County officials openly trying to CHEAT to steal McCormick’s electionA few days ago we told you about Bucks County election officials openly defying the state’s Supreme Court ruling on counting undated or misdated ballots.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| J. Ann Selzer, Pollster Who Predicted Kamala Harris Would Win Iowa, Retires After Massive MissJ. Ann Selzer is retiring from election polling just weeks after her once-respected poll showed that Kamala Harris was leading in Iowa — only for Trump to win the state by more than 13 percentage points on Election Day.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Elon Musk’s X Corp. Intervenes in Bankruptcy Case of Alex Jones’ Infowars with Surprise FilingAttorneys for X Corp., the Elon Musk-founded firm that took over Twitter and rebranded it as X, have filed a notice of appearance in the bankruptcy case of Alex Jones and his Infowars platform.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Republican NBC Guest Delivers Harsh Reality Check to Those Trashing RFK Jr.The haters coming out for Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continue to humiliate themselves in grand fashion with inane defenses of Big Pharma and nasty smears.READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trump’s Drastic Plans for Military Officers in Charge of Botched Afghan WithdrawalDonald Trump is compiling a list of senior military officers who could face being court-martialed for the disastrous 2021 Afghanistan withdrawal, reports say. His transition team is said to be exploring charges as severe as treason, although the legal reasoning remains unclear as they were acting under Biden’s orders. ‘They’re taking it very seriously,’ a source said to NBC News, …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Dennis Prager’s Co-Host Pleads for Prayers After Giving Update on His ConditionDennis Prager, the conservative radio host and co-founder of PragerU, is facing a challenging recovery after a serious fall last week that left him hospitalized.READ THE FULL REPORTPennsylvania Supreme Court Rules Against Democrats Who Defied Law to Count Illegal BallotsThe Pennsylvania Supreme Court directed Pennsylvania counties on Monday not to count mail-in ballots that lacked the correct date or otherwise violated state law.READ THE FULL REPORTTrump Border Czar Tom Homan reveals his three top priorities for mass deportationPresident-elect Trump’s new Border Czar Tom Homan told Fox News today what his top three priorities will be in January when he takes office.READ THE FULL REPORTTrump Reveals What Was Discussed in Meeting with Scarborough, BrzezinskiPresident-elect Donald Trump confirmed on Monday that MSNBC “Morning Joe” hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski met with him privately at his Mar-a-Lago estate in southern Florida, calling the discussion “extremely cordial.”READ THE FULL REPORTAppeals Court Abruptly Postpones Trump Bid to Oust Fani Willis from RICO CaseThe Georgia Court of Appeals abruptly canceled oral arguments over President-elect Donald Trump’s effort to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from prosecuting his racketeering case. “The oral argument scheduled to take place on December 5, 2024, at 10:30 a.m. is hereby canceled until further order of this Court,” the appeals court stated in a brief order, leaving the …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS TUESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0582 DOWN 13
USA/ YEN 153.66 DOWN 0.948 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2649 DOWN .0030
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3986 DOWN 0.0037 (CDN DOLLAR UP 37 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 22.66 PTS OR 0.67%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 87.06 OR 0.44%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP 0.87%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 87.06 PTS OR 0.44%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 22.66 PTS OR 0.67%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .87%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 193.58 PTS OR 0.51%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2632.80
silver:$31.25
USA dollar index early TUESDAY morning: 106.67 DOWN 8 BASIS POINTS FROM MONDAY’s CLOSE.
TUESDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
And now your closing TUESDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.787% DOWN 3 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.045% DOWN 2 AND 4/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.046 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.567 DOWN 3 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3380 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : TUESDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0585 DOWN .0010 OR 10 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.08 DOWN .528 OR YEN IS UP 53 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.5000 UP 2 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar UP 37 OR 37 BASIS pts to 1.3986
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.2400 (ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2348)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.54 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.045
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 4 in basis points from MONDAY at 4.372% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.565 DOWN 5 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.59 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2622.60
SILVER AT 11;00: 31.10
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: TUESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED DOWN 10.30 PTS OR 0.13%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 128.88 OR 0.67%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 48.59 PTS OR 0.67%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 86.40 OR 0.74%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 433.70 OR 1.28%
WTI Oil price 69.62 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 73.15 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 100.57 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 82/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3870 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.5000 UP 1 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.319 UP 2 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.151 UP 5
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0593 DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2677 DOWN 0.0002 OR 2 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.443 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.047
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.70 UP .092 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3969 DOWN 0.0053 CDN dollar UP 53 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 69.61
Brent OIL: 73.36
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS pts to 4.386
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 3 BASIS PTS to 4.573%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1 PTS AT 4.278
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.347 UP 7 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.168 UP 6 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.16 DOWN 4 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.48 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 100.56 DOWN 0 AND 80/100 roubles
GOLD 2,631.50 3:30 PM
SILVER: 31.27 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 120.66 PTS OR 0.28%
NASDAQ UP 142 PTS OR 0.64%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.10 UP 0.52 PTS OR 3.34%
GLD: $243.23 UP 2.14 OR 0.89%
SLV/ $28.50 UP 0.12 OR 0.42%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:UP 27.95 PTS OR 0.11%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Bid As Markets Mull Moscow, Mullahs, Musk, & Macro
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Geopolitics, macroeconomics, and domestic politics all combined for a wile ride in stocks today…
Geopolitics was a major headwind overnight as Putin signed a decree allowing Russia to use nuclear weapons in the event of a massive conventional attack on its soil. But, then that reversed as headlines suggested Iran is looking to de-escalate (IRAN AGREES TO STOP PRODUCING NEAR BOMB-GRADE URANIUM: IAEA).
All of that prompted a roller-coaster in stocks with Nasdaq ending the best (and Small Caps recovering dramatically from overnight weakness). The Dow desperately tried to get green but failed (even with help from WMT)…
Then Musk sparked some chaos in media stocks as he tweeted: “No advertising for pharma”…
Source: Bloomberg
Shorts were squeezed today from the cash open…
Source: Bloomberg
Mega-Cap Tech rallied significantly on the day, bouncing off pre-election levels ahead of tomorrow’s NVDA earnings…
Source: Bloomberg
VIX was higher on the day with tomorrow’s risk event priced in (though less than typical for an NVDA earnings day)…
Source: Bloomberg
US Macro data disappointed – housing starts and permits were ugly – which helped pull bond yields lower (along with chatter about potential ‘safe’ picks for Treasury Secretary)…
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin continued its charge higher, topping $94,000 – a new record high in USD terms…
Source: Bloomberg
…and coming within a few points of an all-time record high against gold…
Source: Bloomberg
…even as gold started to rally back from its post-election doldrums too…
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices dipped on the Iran headlines but overall it appears geopolitical uncertainty is adding some premium back into the energy complex…
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, US equities are currently pricing a very optimistic growth environment…
Source: Goldman Sachs
Goldman’s sector model leads them to recommend overweight positions in Materials, Software & Services, and Utilities. From an investment strategy perspective, they invoke the dictum of Donald Trump to “protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself.”
MORNING TRADING
II USA DATA
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
“SHALL NOT BE COUNTED”: Pennsylvania Supreme Court Orders Rogue Officials To Stop Counting Illegal Ballots
Monday, Nov 18, 2024 – 07:27 PM
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court on Monday ordered all of the state’s county election officials to stop counting mail-in ballots that fail to comply with state law.
The order comes after Bucks County Board of Commissioners Chair Robert J. Harvie Jr. (D) and Vice Chair Dianne Ellis-Marseglia (D) defied the top Court’s previous ruling that ballots missing signatures in one of two places, or which are missing a date, cannot be counted.
State law requires a handwritten date on the outer return envelope of mail-in ballots.
The ruling and order to stop counting comes as an automatic recount is underway in the race between Republican Senator-elect Dave McCormick and incumbent Senator Bob Casey. The recount – which comes at a cost to taxpayers of more than $1 million, was triggered by a state law that calls for an automatic recount if a candidate’s margin of victory is no more than 0.5% of total votes cast.
“The Court hereby ASSUMES its King’s Bench authority … only to DIRECT that all Respondents, including the Boards of Elections in Bucks County, Montgomery County, and Philadelphia County, SHALL COMPLY with the prior rulings of this Court in which we have clarified that mail-in and absentee ballots that fail to comply with the requirements of the Pennsylvania Election Code …. SHALL NOT BE COUNTED for purposes of the election held on November 5, 2024,” reads Monday’s ruling.
Earlier this month, Bucks County, PA. commissioners voted to count ballots lacking proper signatures in violation of the state Supreme Court ruling issued earlier this year, and against the advice of the board’s legal counsel – which advised not to count illegal ballots.
Now to see if they comply…
END
Pentagon Gets Rid Of DEI Evidence Before Trump Takes Office
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 01:00 PM
Authored by Dmytro “Henry” Aleksandrov via Headline USA,
It was recently reported that corrupt Pentagon officials are “scrambling” to wipe all evidence of DEI before President-elect Donald Trump steps back into the Oval Office on Jan. 20, 2025.
Breitbart News wrote in its exclusive article that its sources stated that the Pentagon is in “absolute disarray” with “generals scrambling” because Trump plans to fire far-left senior military leaders who pushed DEI and other woke policies instead of taking care of combat readiness.
One source compared the organization’s situation to a hornet’s nest being kicked over, adding that “DEI pages are starting to disappear off the main websites.”
“They’re being archived as we speak. They are full-bore focused on cleaning up anything DEI-related,” the source stated.
Another anonymous person said that many Pentagon employees are afraid they will be fired, stating that “they are in panic mode.”
The recent news came after Trump gathered the names of senior officers who had pushed DEI. One Breitbart source familiar with the plan said that Trump’s team drafted an executive order to create a panel to recommend those senior officers for elimination and that the executive order is “definitely” going to Trump’s desk.
“This is for real. This [order] has made the cut,” the source said, noting that the executive order could be revised and consulted with incoming leaders at the Pentagon.
According to the sources, the order plans to “reorient the U.S. military away from the woke ideology and priorities that have been foisted upon it” since the Obama administration.
“Looks as if the Department of Defense has ordered an industrial shredder. WARNING: Shredding documents is a felony. We will not accept claims of ‘I was just doing my job.’ The hammer of Justice is coming,” the Department of Government Efficiency parody account stated.
Headline USA previously reported on Trump planning to fire far-left generals en masse.
The recent news came after Trump picked Army veteran Pete Hegseth as the head of the Department of Defense, which resulted in the Left seething over the pick.
“The Pentagon is legitimately scared of [Hegseth] because of his opposition to DEI — keep in mind, the Defense Department is spending around $86 BILLION on various DEI initiatives,” Kaylee McGhee White said. “Hegseth wants to root that out.”
Trump To Pick Lutnick For Commerce Secretary: Reports
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 12:40 PM
In the latest unconfirmed report from “people familiar with the matter,” President-elect Donald Trump is expected to nominate veteran Wall Street financier Howard Lutnick to head up the Commerce Department – days after the Cantor Fitzgerald CEO was reportedly passed over to lead the Treasury Department.
Lutnick, who has the backing of several prominent allies including Elon Musk, has been a fierce advocate of Trump’s economic proposals – including a pledge to impose sweeping tariffs.
If confirmed, Lutnick would oversee the agency focused on ‘expanding US economic growth and boosting domestic industries,’ the Wall Street Journal reports.
The Commerce Secretary supports US businesses – often acting as an emissary between nations to negotiate trade deals and increase foreign investment. There are 13 bureaus within the department, including the US Patent and Trademark Office. The Commerce secretary works with other members of the president’s Cabinet who are similarly tasked with carrying out and advising on aspects of economic policy.
Lutnick reportedly edged out Robert Lighthizer – Trump’s US trade representative during his first term, and Linda McMahon, who administered the SBA from 2017 to 2019. According to CNN (so extra grains of salt), both were recently informed that Lutnick was getting the Commerce job.
Lutnick and McMahon have co-chaired Trump’s transition over the past several months – with Lutnick vetting people and advising Trump on Cabinet nominees, and McMahon running policy.
Last month, Lutnick said at a Madison Square Garden Trump rally that the US was the most prosperous during the early 1900s, when there was “no income tax and all we had was tariffs.“
“We had so much money that we had the greatest businessmen of America get together to try to figure out how to spend it,” said Lutnick, an advocate for higher tariffs.
Trump, meanwhile, has pledged to impose 60% tariffs on goods from China, and 10% tariffs on goods from other countries.
The reported nomination of Lutnick for commerce secretary suggests – as we detailed earlier – that the ‘safe’ pick of Warsh for Treasury Secretary and Bessent as NEC Director is in play.
END
how could they lose so much money?
(EpochTimes)
USPS Incurs $9.5 Billion Loss Despite Raising Stamp Prices
by Tyler Durden
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 11:20 AM
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) incurred a significant increase in its losses this fiscal year, as revenues jumped but volumes dipped.
Net loss for 2024 fiscal totaled $9.5 billion, up from $6.5 billion last year, said a Nov. 14 statement from the agency reflecting its earnings. The $3 billion increase in losses occurred at the same time the agency had a slight revenue increase from $78.18 billion to $79.53 billion. The revenue uptick was not supported by an increase in mail volume, which fell from 116 billion units to 112 billion units.
According to the USPS Office of the Inspector General, the postal agency “relies almost entirely on the revenue generated from postage” to cover the costs of delivering mail.
The jump in net loss occurred despite an increase in postal rates by the agency. This increase, implemented in January and July, was done in accordance with the 2021 Delivering for America (DFA) plan that calls for such annual hikes.
The 10-year plan is reportedly aimed at boosting USPS’s financial situation.
The postal agency said that more than 80 percent of the loss incurred this year was due to factors “outside of management’s control,” such as adjustments related to employees’ non-cash compensation, according to the report.
Postmaster General Louis DeJoy said the organization’s pricing and product strategies “are continuing to improve our revenue picture and fuel market share gains in our package business.”
Nonprofit advocacy Keep US Posted criticized the USPS for its large losses, blaming it on the agency’s focus on the DFA plan. The $9.5 billion loss is more than $3 billion above projections, said the nonprofit’s executive director, former congressman Kevin Yoder.
He attributed the losses to mail volume declines that negated the increase in package volumes. Yoder blamed DeJoy for pursuing the DFA’s “disastrous postage increases and misbegotten focus on packages over traditional mail, which is still the largest revenue-generator for USPS.”
“The bottom line is that these consistent financial losses are driven by stamp hikes which lead to disastrous mail volume losses, plus the complete failure of USPS to capture parcel market share in already crowded package delivery space.”
USPS chief financial officer Joseph Corbett said the ongoing trend of falling mail volume and rising package volume reinforces the agency’s commitment to fully implementing the DFA plan.
Adhering to the plan has resulted in cutting down work hours for the third straight year, resulting in $2.3 billion in annual savings, he claimed.
USPS and Price Hikes
When USPS last raised the price of stamps in July, it justified the decision by saying the hike was financially necessary for the agency, as per the DFA plan.
“USPS prices remain among the most affordable in the world,” it said.
Earlier in May, the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC) said the postal agency’s July price increase was in line with regulations and that there was no legal reason to reject the hikes. PRC is an independent agency tasked with regulatory oversight of USPS.
A group of senators criticized USPS in a letter in April for the “unsustainable” price hikes. After the agency began raising postage rates, “we began to see the disastrous effects in 2023,” they wrote, pointing to a decline of 11 billion pieces of mail volume that year and the $6.5 billion loss.
“Instead of connecting the two issues, USPS blamed inflation, despite mail prices nearly doubling inflation in that time period.”
In September, Rep. Jake LaTurner (R-Kan.) introduced the USPS SERVES US Act, which Keep US Posted says will allow the PRC to course-correct USPS decisions driving the agency into “financial ruin.”
The bill seeks to limit “negative effects” of the DFA plan, which has made mailing expensive for customers, it said.
“Since August 2021, there have been six unprecedented postage hikes—one every six months, well above inflation—that have hurt businesses, newspapers, nonprofit mailers, and individual Americans,” LaTurner noted.
“With each price hike, demand for mail, which is still the biggest revenue-generator for the USPS, declines, access to our postal network is threatened, and the USPS slips further into financial ruin.”
On Friday, the postal agency said it filed a notice with PRC for raising Shipping Services prices scheduled to take effect from Jan. 19. Prices for Mailing Services will remain unchanged due to which First-Class stamp prices will not be raised.
The Epoch Times reached out to USPS for comment.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
VDH: Can Trump End Ukraine’s ‘Endless War’?
Tuesday, Nov 19, 2024 – 10:25 AM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,
Trump was elected in part on promises to avoid “endless wars” of the sort that cost American blood and treasure in Afghanistan and Iraq but without resulting in strategic advantage or civilized calm.
Yet as a Jacksonian, Trump also restored American deterrence through punitive strikes against ISIS and terrorist thugs like Baghdadi and Soleimani—without being bogged down in costly follow-ups. During the last four administrations, Putin stayed within his borders only during the Trump four years.
But upon entering office, Trump will likely still be faced with something far more challenging as he confronts what has become the greatest European killing field since World War II—the cauldron on the Ukrainian border that has likely already cost 1-1.5 million combined dead, wounded, and missing Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and civilians.
There is no end in sight after three years of escalating violence. But there are increasing worries that strategically logical and morally defensible—but geopolitically dangerous—Ukrainian strikes on the Russian interior will nonetheless escalate and lead to a wider war among the world’s nuclear powers.
Many on the right wish for Trump to immediately cut off all aid to Ukraine for what they feel is an unwinnable war, even if that abrupt cessation would end any leverage with which to force Putin to negotiate.
They claim the war was instigated by a globalist left, serving as a proxy conflict waged to ruin Russia at the cost of Ukrainian soldiers. They see it orchestrated by a now non-democratic Ukrainian government, lacking elections, a free press, or opposition parties, led by an ungracious and corrupt Zelensky cadre that has allied with the American left in an election year.
In contrast, many on the left see Putin’s invasion and the right’s weariness with the costs of the conflict as the long-awaited global proof of the Trump-Russian “collusion” unicorn. Thus, after the 2016 collusion hoax and 2020 laptop disinformation ruse, they see in some of the right’s opposition to the war at last proof of the Russophiliac Trump perfidy. They judge Putin, not China’s imperialist juggernaut, as the real enemy and discount the dangers of a new Russia-China-Iran-North Korean axis. And to see Ukraine utterly defeat Russia, recover all of the Donbass and Crimea, and destroy the Putin dictatorship, they are willing again to feed the war to the last Ukrainian while discounting escalating Russian threats to use tactical nuclear weapons to prevent defeat.
Trump has vowed to end the catastrophe on day one by doing what is now taboo: calling Vladimir Putin and making a deal that would do the now impossible: entice Russia back to its February 24, 2022, borders before it invaded and thus preserve a reduced but still autonomous and secure Ukraine.
How could Trump pull that unlikely deal off?
Ostensibly, he would follow the advice of a growing number of Western diplomats, generals, scholars, and pundits who have reluctantly outlined a general plan to stop the slaughter.
But how could Putin reassure the Russian people of anything short of an absolute annexation of Ukraine after the cost of one million Russian casualties?
Perhaps in the deal, Putin could brag that he institutionalized forever his 2014 annexations of once Russian-speaking majority Donbass and Crimea; that he prevented Ukraine from joining NATO on the doorstep of Mother Russia; and that he achieved a strategic coup in aligning Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea in a new grand alliance against the West and particularly the United States, with the acquiescence if not support of NATO member Turkey and an ever more sympathetic India.
And what would Ukraine and the West gain from such a Trump art of the deal?
Kyiv might boast that, as the bulwark of Europe, Ukraine heroically saved the country from Russian annexation as envisioned in the 2022 attempt to decapitate Kyiv and absorb the entire country. Ukraine subsequently was armed by the West and fought effectively enough to stymie the Russian juggernaut, wound and humiliate the Russian military, and sow dissension within the vastly weakened Russian dictatorship, as evidenced by the assassinated would-be insurgent Prigozhin.
Trump then might pull off the agreement if he could further establish a DMZ between the Russian and Ukrainian borders and ensure European Union economic aid for a fully armed Ukraine that might deter an endlessly restless Russian neighbor.
It would admittedly be a shaky and questionable deal, given Putin’s propensity to break his word and insidiously and endlessly seek to reestablish the borders of the old Soviet Union.
How then would Trump pull such a grand bargain off, given the hatred shown him by the American left for “selling out Zelensky,” the likely furor from the MAGA base of giving even one cent more than the current $200 billion to Ukraine, and its “endless war,” and the ankle biting from the Europeans who would be relieved by the end of hostilities on its borders but loathe to give any credit to Trump, whom they detest?
What would be the incentives for any such deal, and would they be contrary to both the interests of the American people and the new Republican populist-nationalist coalition?
Yet consider that if Trump were to cut all support for Ukraine, the right would see Ukraine become shortly absorbed—and it would be blamed for a humiliation comparable to the Kabul catastrophe, only worse, since Ukraine, unlike the Afghanistan mess, required only American arms, not our lives.
In contrast, if the endless war grinds on and on, at some point, the pro-war and so-called humanitarian left will be permanently stamped as the callous party of unending conflict and utterly indifferent to the consumption of Ukrainian youth, spent to further its endless vendetta against a Russian people who also are worn out by the war.
Both Russia and Ukraine are running out of soldiers, with escalating casualties that will haunt them for decades. Russia yearns to be free of sanctions and to sell oil and gas to Europe. The West, and the U.S. in particular, would like to triangulate Russia against China and vice versa, in Kissingerian style, and thus avoid any two-power nuclear standoff.
America wants to increase and stockpile its munitions with an emboldened China on the horizon. It is dangerously exhausted by defense cuts and massive aid to Ukraine and Israel while preferring allies like Israel that can win with a few billion rather than perhaps lose after receiving $200 billion. The Republican Party is now becoming the party of peace, and Trump, the Jacksonian, nonetheless the most reluctant president to spend American blood and treasure abroad in memory.
Europe is mentally worn out by the war and increasingly reneging on its once boastful unqualified support for Ukraine. So, it hopes the demonized Trump can both end the hated war and then be blamed for ending it without an unconditional Ukrainian victory.
In short, there are lots of parties who want, and lots of incentives for, an end to our 21st-century Verdun.
KING REPORT
| The King Report November 19, 2024 Issue 7373 | Independent View of the News |
| Precious metals and energy commodities soared on Monday due to Biden’s handlers’ escalation of the Ukraine-Russia War and a supply outage at Norway’s giant Johan Sverdrup field. Nvidia declined as much as 3.35% on reports that its Blackwell AI chips are overheating in servers. GOP @RepThomasMassie: By authorizing long range missiles to strike inside Russia, Biden is committing an unconstitutional Act of War that endangers the lives of all U.S. citizens. This is an impeachable offense, but the reality is he’s an emasculated puppet of a deep state. @TheresaAFallon: Russia recently began producing thermobaric drones to be used alongside decoy drones in Ukraine…Thermobaric warheads create a wave of high pressure & heat that is capable of penetrating thick walls. Damage caused by thermobaric attack drones would cause damage that would be “simply terrifying” for civilian populations to endure, including collapsed lungs, crushed eyeballs, & brain damage. @AP After hitting a low of 137.15 at 9:53 ET Nvidia soared to a daily high of 141.28 at 11:43 ET. It then rolled over. This suggests that Old World traders aggressively bought NVDA to drive up the mark on their Nvidia positions for the 11:30 ET European close. ESZs opened at 5891.75 (-4.75) on Sunday night but quickly rallied on post-expiry and Monday Rally buying. ESZs rallied 5914.00 at 20:02 ET and then traded sideways until they broke lower at 2:24 ET. After hitting a new daily low of 58856.60 at 8:21 ET, ESZs jumped to 5905.75 at 9:17 ET on the usually buying for the NYSE opening. But Nvidia’s overheating Blackwell AI chips worried some traders. ESZs sank to 5891.25 at 9:31 ET. ESZs then churned until they broke higher near 10:00 ET. Because most traders, operators, and investors are over-the-top bullish, ESZs soared to a new daily high of 5933.00 at 11:44 ET. With Europe closed, ESZs commenced a decline that took ESZs to 5907.50 at 13:46 ET. After a bounce to 5921.75 at 14:04 ET, ESZ traded sideways and were 5920.00 at the NYSE close. Positive aspects of previous session USZs hit a low of 115 9/32 at 8:21 ET and then soared to 116 20/32 at 13:29 ET. ESZs and stocks rallied sharpy after an early decline. The NY Fangs+ Index rallied moderately due to Netflix, Apple, CrowdStrike, and Google The Nasdaq 100 soared on Super Micro Computer (Rallied as much as 29% but closed +15.62%). Negative aspects of previous session Nvidia; the DJIA, and the DJIA declined. Ambiguous aspects of previous session Will Ukraine and Russia escalate their war? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5889.23 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5908.12; 5865.95 @visegrad24: The submarine fiber communications cable C-Lion-1 between Finland and Germany has been cut. It’s the only cable connecting Finland with Central Europe. A vessel has set out to investigate the cause. Lame-duck Biden ramps up sanctions on Israelis in final days and eases up on terrorist And just as President Barack Obama in his last months in office allowed the UN Security Council to pass a resolution slamming Israel, Biden may use sanctions to further turn the screws on the Jewish state in his lame-duck stretch… https://t.co/dsz47ojU48 Biden and Blinken threatened to leave Israel ‘alone,’ deny weapons over Rafah offensive, Netanyahu claims https://t.co/jqokgAGBYn Trump’s former CDC director makes bombshell COVID claim that ‘there is a real possibility’ virus was born in North Carolina… as part of a secret biodefense program… https://t.co/obAQx9iU8J @JackPosobiec: The CIA’s man at WaPo David Ignatius is on Morning Joe urging Trump not to pick @TulsiGabbard. David is *terrified* Tulsi will declassify who illegally leaked Gen Flynn’s name to him in 2017. Super Micro Computer Announces Appointment of BDO USA as Independent Auditor and Filing of Compliance Plan with Nasdaq – Business Wire 17:00 ET. SMCI soared 27% in after-hour trading. Someone traded on inside information during the NYSE session or gambled the SMCI would meet the Monday deadline for filing a compliance plan with Nasdaq. Today – Even though trading sardines rallied smartly on Monday while the DJIA and DJTA declined, the usual suspects will play for an ersatz Turnaround Tuesday to the upside, because over-the-moon bullish traders will grasp at the flimsiest excuse to play for a rally. ESZs are -5.25; NQZs are -24.00; and USZs are +1/32 at 20:25 ET in lackluster trading. Expected economic data and Fed speakers: Oct Housing Starts 1.337m, Permits 1.44m; KC Fed Pres Schmid 13:10 ET on Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy Expected retailer earnings: LOW 2.82, WMT .53 S&P Index 50-day MA: 5780; 100-day MA: 5643; 150-day MA: 5516; 200-day MA: 5416 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,472; 100-day MA: 41,353; 150-day MA: 40,516; 200-day MA: 40,102 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5893.62 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5218.49 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5557.29 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5850.21 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5920.64 triggers a buy signal President-elect Trump confirmed Monday that he is planning to declare a national emergency and use the U.S. military to carry out mass deportations. https://t.co/MjZF8XducP @GuntherEagleman: Trump is vowing to use the Federal Vacancies Reform Act of 1998 if the Senate stands in the way of confirming his appointments. This would allow for temporary appointments for up to 210 days! @kylenabecker: In 2012, then-President Obama tried to ram through “recess appointments” while the Senate was *still in session.* This is what MSNBC & CNN hosts had to say at the time. CNN’s Anderson Cooper: “The Constitution allows for recess appointments.” MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell: “I agree and everybody agrees that the President has recess appointment power.” The Supreme Court ultimately ruled Obama cannot make recess appointments until the Senate is out of session for 10 days. But that was (D)ifferent. Trump slams pollster whose ‘totally fake poll’ showed Harris winning Iowa, calls for probe “A totally Fake poll that caused great distrust and uncertainty at a very critical time. She knew exactly what she was doing,” he wrote Sunday evening on Truth Social. “Thank you to the GREAT PEOPLE OF IOWA for giving me such a record breaking vote, despite possible ELECTION FRAUD by Ann Selzer and the now discredited ‘newspaper’ for which she works… https://nypost.com/2024/11/18/us-news/trump-slams-pollster-j-ann-selzer-whose-totally-fake-poll-showed-harris-winning-iowa-calls-for-probe/ Americans across political spectrum strongly oppose transgender surgery for minors, poll finds Napolitan News Service poll found 72% of Americans think it should be illegal for doctors to perform “gender-affirming care” surgeries on minors… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/polling/mon-most-americans-across-political-isle-are-against-transgender-surgery CBS is accused of editing out Donald Trump dance celebration as craze sweeps the NFL https://t.co/iliuKcgTJd Ballot counting problems in swing state Senate races drag on as political parties fight for seats Election Denial 2.0: “Democrat officials and scam lawyers are aiding and abetting Bob Casey’s shameful attempts to steal back a Senate seat which he lost decisively,” RNC Chairman Michael Whatley said… https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/elections/ballot-counting-problems-swing-state-senate-races-drag-political-parties @GuntherEagleman: RNC Chairman Whatley is looking into criminally charging the Democrat Commissioner in Bucks County that openly admitted to counting illegal ballots! -Daily Caller “We will pursue this to the fullest extent that we can.” PA Supreme Court rules for RNC, declares undated mail-in ballots may not be counted “Election officials in Bucks, Montgomery, Philadelphia, and other counties have absolutely no choice but to reject illegal ballots,” RNC Chairman Michael Whatley said… https://justthenews.com/government/courts-law/pennsylvania-supreme-court-rules-rnc-undated-mail-ballots-cannot-be-counted Team Obama-Harris paid ~$2.5m to Oprah’s production company for Oprah’s interview with Kamala! https://www.foxnews.com/politics/oprah-town-hall-cost-harris-campaign-far-more-than-initially-claimed-report Nikki Haley reveals the real reason Morning Joe hosts went to Mar-a-Lago to meet Trump Let’s be clear, Joe and Mika didn’t suddenly see the light, they saw their ratings,’ she wrote on X. ‘They realized they needed Trump for their survival.’ Trump’s landslide victory cratered ratings for MSNBC, as their prime-time viewership has fallen 53 percent from October… https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14098375/Nikki-Haley-morning-joe-donald-trump-mar-lago.html Trump named ex-Rep. Sean Duffy to be Transportation Secretary. | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER
SEE YOU TUESDAY
harveyorganblog.com 
