GOLD PRICE CLOSED UP $23.85 TO $2672.15
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.06 TO $30.88
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2671.65
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.77
Bitcoin morning price:$97,418 UP 3610 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $98,419 UP 2847 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing UP $6.75 TO $967.90
Palladium price; UP $16.20 TO $1040.40
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3722.26 UP 20.16 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2121.10 UP 25.55 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2148.36 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) OCT 30/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,549.20 UP 34.35 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2565.55 EUROS PER OZ//OCT 30 //.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE;
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: NOVEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,648.200000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/20/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 11/22/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
190 H BMO CAPITAL 9
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 6
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 1
661 C JP MORGAN 2
737 C ADVANTAGE 2
905 C ADM 16
TOTAL: 18 18
MONTH TO DATE: 2,723
JPMorgan stopped 2/18
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 18 NOTICES FOR 1800 OZ 0.0559 TONNES
total notices so far: 2723 contracts for 272300 Oz (8.4696 tonnes)
FOR NOV
SILVER NOTICES: 6 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 30,000 OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 906 for 4.530 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $23.85 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD./
/ /INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 TONNES
INVENTORY RESTS AT 875.39 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN 06 CENTS AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 475.841 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 175 CONTRACTS TO 141,112 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS SMALL SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS OF $0.22 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE GAIN OF 825 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS OF $0.22 IN PRICE. WE HAD CONSIDERABLE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND FINALLY SUCCEEDED YESTERDAY WITH SILVER’S FALL..
WE HAD A HUGE 1000 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 740 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN FUTURE TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART DURING RAIDS TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE GAINED A HUGE SIZED 825 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY’S COMEX SESSION.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX BUT THAT ENDED MONDAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 740 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE SUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT FELL BY $0.22) BUT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH, WE DID HAVE A HUGE GAIN OF 837 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES.
WE HAD A HUGE 1000 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 4.600 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 4.600 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ SMALL SIZED COMEX OI LOSS (ALL DUE TO T.A.S. LIQUIDATION)//HUMONGOUS SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) STRONG SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 740 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: REMOVED 12 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 15 DAYS, total 19,544 contracts: OR 97.720 MILLION OZ (1302 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 97.72 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 97.72 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A SMALL SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 175 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR STRONG LOSS OF $0.22 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//WEDNESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUMONGOUS EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 1000 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 1000 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 2.810 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 25,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP WHERE THESE GUYS DECIDED TO TAKE DELIVERY ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 4.600 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF 825 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR LOSS IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 740 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE WEDNESDAY COMEX SESSION THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX AND LOSS IN OI. NO SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON WEDNESDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE LOSS IN PRICE WEDNESDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT (740) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 6 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.030 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1637 OI CONTRACTS TO 502,055 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED 740 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (1637 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $22.10 IN PRICE WEDNESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP. BUT WE HAD ANOTHER OF THAT CRAZY ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS LAST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR DELIVERY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 11.0917 TONNES + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 14.2017 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 14.2017 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $21.10 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG GAIN OF 4293 OI CONTRACTS (13.353 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 900 OZ)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A VERY STRONG SIZED 5930 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 502,055
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED INCREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4293 CONTRACTS WITH 1637 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A VERY STRONG SIZED 5930 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 4293 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED AND CRIMINAL 1819 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD SMALL LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE WEDNESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5930 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 1637 CONTRACTS/TOTAL GAIN FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 4293 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 900 OZ QUEUE JUMP BUT WE MUST ADD THE NEW AND CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 1000 CONTRACTS OF EX. FOR RISK ISSUED LAST FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE BY THE BUYER ASSUMES RISK FROM THE SELLER THAT THAT CONTRACT WOULD BE DELIVERED TO HIM. WHAT A JOKE!
//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 11.0918 TONNES + 3.11 TONES EX FOR RISK = 14.2017 TONNES.
/ 3) SOME T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO CONTAIN GOLD’S HUGE PRICE RISE WITH ZERO SUCCESS WEDNESDAY AS WE HAD A STRONG $13.00 RISE. WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) SMALL SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1919 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 92,123 CONTRACTS OF 9,212,300 OZ OR 286.54 TONNES IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5757 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 16 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 286.54 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 286.54 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 8.05% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 286.54 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH/MAYBE A RECORD ISSUANCE MONTH//PREVIOUS RECORD ISSUANCE MARCH 2022 OF 409 TONNES.)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A SMALL SIZED 175 CONTRACTS OI TO 141,112 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 1000 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 1000 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1000 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 175 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 1000 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A HUGE SIZED GAIN OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 825 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 4.125 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.22 LOSS IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
THURSDAY MORNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING/THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR 0.07%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 103.90 PTS OR 0.53%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 326.17 OR 0.85%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2414 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2457// Oil UP TO 70.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 74.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A FAIR SIZED 1637 CONTRACTS TO 501,315 DESPITE OUR STRONG GAIN IN PRICE OF $21.10 WITH RESPECT TO WEDNESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET IN NUMBER LONGS WITH THE MUCH HIGHER PRICE FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A VERY STRONG NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5930).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK SO FAR AND ESPECIALLY DURING YESTERDAY’S HUGE GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MASSIVE TA.S. LIQUIDATION.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT 197 AND 199 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING PRICE OF GOLD THIS EPISODE ENDED ON LAST FRIDAY
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN WITH THIS WEEKS TRADING.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 5930 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 5930 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5930 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE GAINED THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5033 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5930 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A FAIR SIZED LOSS OF 1637 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG GAIN ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $21.10 WEDNESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER I AM SAD TO REPORT THAT THE CROOKS ISSUED ANOTHER STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF A GIANT 1,000 CONTRACTS ON LAST FRIDAY NIGHT OR IN OTHER WORDS A BUYER IS TAKING THE RISK THAT THEY WILL DELIVER TO HIM 3.110 TONNES OF GOLD (311,000 OZ). WE WISH THE BUYER ALL THE LUCK IN THE WORLD.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR WEDNESDAY WAS A NORMAL SIZED SIZED 1819 CONTRACTS, WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK). THIS ENDS THE LARGE ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. AT 4 STRAIGHT DAYS.
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME TRYING TO CONTROL THE PRICE OF GOLD AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (AND SPREADERS LATE IN THE MONTH). THE USE OF T.A.S. IS OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN LAST WEEK’S AND THIS WEEK’S TRADING AND ESPECIALLY DURING LAST WEEK’S CONTINUOUS RAIDS.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (14.2017 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.0917 TONNES + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 14.2017 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $21.10/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A STRONG GAIN IN OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WE DID HAVE SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION WEDNESDAY. WE ALSO HAD A NORMAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING
WE HAVE GAINED A TOTAL OF 13.353 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD SIZED QUEUE JUMP OF 9 CONTRACTS OR 900 OZ (0.02799 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A MASSIVE QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD. MOSTLY LIKELY THIS IS THE FRBNY DESPERATELY TRYING TO EXTINGUISH ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL SHORT FALL OF 93 TONNES. HOWEVER WE MUST ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” OF 1000 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 311,000 OZ OR 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 11.0917 TONNES + 3.11 TONNES EX FOR RISK PRIOR= 14.2017 TONNESES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 14.2017TONNES (WHICH FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED DWITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $21.10
WE HAD 740 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET GAIN ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 4293 CONTRACTS OR 429,300 OZ (13.353 TONNES)
confirmed volume WEDNESDAY 238,577 contracts STRONG //// t.a.s. enhanced
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
NOV 21 NOV GOLD CONTRACT
/ /// THE NOV 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 32,508.99 OZ asahi real gold deposited |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 18 notice(s) 1800 OZ 0.0559 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 843 contracts 85300 OZ 2.622 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 2723 notices 272300 oz 8.4696 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: nil oz
we have 1 customer deposits
i) Into ASAHI: 32,508.99 oz
(real gold deposited)
total deposits 32,508.99 oz
withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: nil oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 861 contracts having LOST 34 contracts. We had 43 contracts served on WEDNESDAY so we gained A GOOD 9 contracts as these guys underwent a queue jump of 900 oz (0.02799 TONNES OF GOLD) to which we add the 3.11 tonnes of exchange for risk delivery/PRIOR.
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 12,455 CONTRACTS TO 193,093
JANUARY GAINED 114 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 567
FEBRUARY GAINED 9583 CONTRACTS TO 222,492 .
We had 18 contracts filed for today representing 1800 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 18 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 2 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (2723 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(861 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz per contract( equals 356,600 OZ OR 11.0917 TONNES.+ to which we add 3.11 tonnes of exchange for risk delivery//PRIOR //new totals 14.2017 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (2723 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (861 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (18 x 100 oz which equals 356,600 oz (11.0917 TONNES) +3.11 tonnes (ex. for risk/PRIOR) = 14.2017
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 14.2017 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,645,441.913 oz 51.180 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,561,684.250 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,794,300.642/// 242.43tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,767,383.608 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,148,859 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 191.25 tonnes //
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 21. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE NOV 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1,200,766.540oz Asahi BRINKS . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 6 CONTRACT(S) (30,000 OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 14 contracts (70,000oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 906 Contracts (4.530 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits nil oz
We had 2 withdrawals
i) Out of Asahi 600,222.130 oz
ii) Out of Brinks 600,544.410 oz
total withdrawal 1,200,766.540 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/308.188million or 44.62%
adjustment 0
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 69.526MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 308.188 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 20 OPEN INTEREST FOR A GAIN OF 1 CONTRACT
WE HAD 4 NOTICE(S) FILED ON WEDNESDAY SO WE GAINED 5 CONTRACTS OR 25,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP AS THEY DECIDED TO LOOK FOR SILVER ON THIS SIDE OF THE POND.
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 3675 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 53,760 CONTRACTS
JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 30 CONTRACTS UP TO 1324
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 6 for 0.030 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON WEDNESDAY 71,882 huge// t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 906x 5,000 oz = 4.530 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (20) and the number of notices served upon today (6)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month: 906 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(20) number of notices served upon today minus (6)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.600 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 4.600 million oz.
There are 69.526 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 875,39 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 475.841 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
Gold bears squaring the books
A bear squeeze in progress for gold is set to drive prices higher. A catch up could prove explosive for silver, which is being left behind
| Alasdair MacleodNov 21∙Paid |
Gold and silver diverged this week, with gold rallying strongly following the previous week’s fall. Silver’s recovery was more hesitant. In Asian trading overnight, gold was $2666, up $104 from the previous Friday’s close, and silver $31.00, up 78 cents on the same timescale. Turnover in both futures contracts on Comex was good, but not spectacular.
The charts below show how Open Interest has evolved on both contracts.
The lower chart shows how the silver price has declined along with Open Interest (OI) since late-October. This is what one expects: as the price declines, the bulls sell down their longs, so OI declines.
Now look at the upper chart of gold.
Open interest has contacted sharply, yet the price has risen. Between 14—20 November, OI fell by over 34,000 contracts, yet gold rose from $2564 to $2666 currently. Virtually all the fall in OI has been in December contracts not being rolled over into later maturities.
How can this happen, and what does it mean? There can only be one answer, and that is the Swaps are reducing their positions and refusing to create new contracts to supply buyers. Consequently, short-term traders opening new longs have had to bid up for existing contracts to obtain their longs, against the Swaps and other shorts closing their positions. In other words, the squeeze is firmly on the shorts.
This is good news for the bulls, because the balance of probability is that bear squeeze conditions will continue into next week, driving gold higher still. Furthermore, with the war in Ukraine being escalated by NATO members providing cruise missiles and guidance systems so as to attack targets well inside Russia, gold may be appearing to be a safer haven for those already long of dollars.
But more importantly for traders, overnight demand from Asia seems to have reemerged, which appears to be in the driving seat for now. That being the case, there is a good chance that the pullback in gold is over. However, with a gold/silver ratio of 86 it does seem to have left silver behind.
According to Metal Focus, a London-based analyst specialising in precious metals and very much “in” with the bullion establishment,
“For the fourth year in a row, the silver market is expected to see a sizeable deficit in 2024. Solid growth in industrial demand remains the key driver, and relatively steady supply also plays a part. These were some of the key findings that were delivered by Philip Newman and Sarah Tomlinson during last week’s presentation in New York, at the Silver Institute’s Silver Interim dinner.”
One wonders how long this can go on. These deficits have been covered by declining investment demand, and certainly silver’s disappointing performance in recent years points to a market which has been dominated by stale bulls. But that’s now changing and rising demand for gold is bound to reverse investment outflows in silver. There will then be panic with silver as rare as hen’s teeth.
Finally, a look at gold’s technical chart:
It seems that gold has found support at the 55-day moving average, and the other factors mentioned in this report confirm that the correction of recent weeks may be over.
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Chris Powell: Gold price suppression is fading as central banks change policy
Submitted by admin on Thu, 2024-11-21 11:27 Section: Daily Dispatches
Illustrations for this presentation are here: NOIC-Powell-Slides-11-21-2024.pdf
* * *
SLIDE 1 — Introduction
Gold Market Manipulation Update
By Chris Powell, Secretary/Treasurer
New Orleans Investment Conference
Thursday, November 21, 2024
Gold is the secret knowledge of the financial universe. Since the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee was incorporated in 1999, our objective has been to break this secret open.
This turned out to be easier than we expected. Documentation was plentiful.
What has been hard has been to get mainstream financial news organizations and even the gold mining industry itself to pay attention to exposure of the secret. A bit ironically, it has been easier to get some central banks to pay attention.
What has been hard has been to get mainstream financial news organizations and even the gold mining industry itself to pay attention to exposure of the secret. A bit ironically, it has been easier to get some central banks to pay attention.
Gold price suppression has been U.S. government policy since at least the 1970s. The policy aimed to defeat any competition for the dollar as the world reserve currency. At first the policy didn’t always work well but eventually it became sophisticated and successful. Now it is starting to fail, in part because of exposure.
Within a few years GATA discovered, on its own and with the help of some wonderful independent researchers, that gold price suppression policy is laid out in dozens of places, a surprising number of them public — government publications and archives, speeches and memoirs by central bankers and other government officials, and occasional news reports.
SLIDE 2: State Department historian
Perhaps most succinct and descriptive about the policy are the minutes of a meeting at the U.S. State Department in April 1974 between Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and his assistant undersecretary of state for economic and business affairs, Thomas O. Enders:
http://www.gata.org/node/13310
The meeting addressed the growing desire among western European countries to revalue their gold reserves upward, thereby increasing gold’s role in the international financial system and threatening the dollar’s supremacy.
Secretary Kissinger asks Assistant Undersecretary Enders: “Why is it against our interest to have gold in the system?”
Enders answers him: “It’s against our interest to have gold in the system because for it to remain there would result in it being evaluated periodically. Although we still have some substantial gold holdings — about $11 billion — a larger part of the official gold in the world is concentrated in western Europe. This gives them the dominant position in world reserves and the dominant means of creating reserves. We’ve been trying to get away from that into a system in which we can control. …”
Secretary Kissinger interrupts him: “But that’s a balance-of-payments problem.”
Enders replies: “Yes, but it’s a question of who has the most leverage internationally. If they have the reserve-creating instrument, by having the largest amount of gold and the ability to change its price periodically, they have a position relative to ours of considerable power. For a long time we had a position relative to theirs of considerable power because we could change gold almost at will. This is no longer possible — no longer acceptable. Therefore, we have gone to Special Drawing Rights, which is also equitable and could take account of some of the less-developed-country interests and which spreads the power away from Europe. And it’s more rational in. …”
Secretary Kissinger interrupts again: “‘More rational’ being defined as being more in our interests or what?”
Enders answers: “More rational in the sense of more responsive to worldwide needs — but also more in our interest. …”
So there you have it. The top officials of the U.S. State Department in 1974 have just explained to you that whichever government or group of governments has the most gold has the crucial “reserve-creating instrument” — that is, the instrument of money creation — and can control the instrument’s valuation and implicitly the valuation of every currency and financial asset in the world.
Of course money is power and infinite money is infinite power. The interest of the United States, as it was perceived at that meeting at the State Department in April 1974, was to dominate the world by controlling the world’s money creation and the valuation of all its currencies — something that could be done only by controlling the price of gold.
Later that year a gold futures market was created in the United States for the specific purpose of injecting so much imaginary supply and volatility into the gold market that ordinary investors would be scared away from gold:
https://www.gata.org/node/17081
SLIDE 3: Greenspan testimony
In testimony to Congress in July 1998, Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan objected to proposals for more government regulation of the futures markets and derivatives, and he declared that central banks already had achieved sufficient control of the gold price:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/testimony/1998/19980724.htm
Greenspan said: “Central banks stand ready to lease gold in increasing quantities should the price rise.”
Thus Greenspan confirmed that the purpose of gold leasing by central banks was not what they claimed — to earn them a little money on the supposedly dead asset in their vaults — but rather to suppress the monetary metal’s price. Greenspan thus also admitted that derivatives trading was a crucial mechanism of gold price suppression.
SLIDE 4: Central Bank Incentive Program
Sure enough, CME Group, operator of the major futures exchanges in the United States, maintains what it calls its Central Bank Incentive Program, which provides discounts to governments, central banks, and international organizations for their surreptitious trading of all major futures contracts in the United States — not just financial futures but commodity futures as well:
https://www.gata.org/node/18925
SLIDE 5: Peter Warburton and “Debt and Delusion”
The British economist Peter Warburton, author of “Debt and Delusion,” may have been the first to perceive and publicize that the naked shorting of gold and commodities in futures markets — the selling of paper claims to metal and other products that didn’t exist, short-selling that suppressed prices — was being used by central banks and their agent investment banks to protect government currencies, conceal inflation, and discourage the acquisition of hard assets as hedges against inflation.
In 2001 Warburton published a long essay titled “The Debasement of World Currency: It Is Inflation But Not As We Know It”:
https://www.gata.org/node/8303
The objective of Western central banks, Warburton wrote, was to deny the world what he called a “stable numeraire,” a dependable measure of financial values, particularly a dependable measure of the devaluation of government currencies. That is, central banking’s objective had become to achieve inflation without political risk. This was accomplished by creating a vast supply of imaginary gold and silver and other commodities, not just through the futures markets but also through gold swaps and leases by central banks.
This worked as long as most buyers of the monetary metals never demanded delivery but just held on to their paper claims against imaginary gold and silver.
SLIDE 6: Secret IMF staff report
The International Monetary Fund, compiler of official central bank gold reserve data, cooperated with gold price suppression policy by allowing central banks to falsify their gold reserve totals — to count their gold in the vault and their gold out on loan in the same line item on their gold reserve reports.
The secret March 1999 report of the IMF staff to the IMF board, shown here, said this falsification was necessary to prevent markets from learning how much official gold was impaired by leases and swaps — that is, it was necessary to prevent markets from learning how much official gold was already being used for price suppression:
https://www.gata.org/node/12016
In these circumstances, Warburton wrote, investors could find a hedge against inflation only in some physical asset that was not attached to a futures market. He suggested farmland and supplies of clean water.
A wonderful aphorism soon arose from Warburton’s essay. That is: “The futures markets are not manipulated. The futures markets are the manipulation.”
* * *
What I have said so far here has been an outline of gold price suppression policy and its mechanisms. But silver prices also long have been subjected to largely surreptitious intervention by the U.S. government.
SLIDE 7: President Johnson signs Coinage Act of 1965
Indeed, President Lyndon B. Johnson promised to rig the silver market when he signed the Coinage Act of 1965. The act removed silver from new mass-circulation coins minted by the U.S. government.
Signing the act into law, Johnson proclaimed: “If anybody has any idea of hoarding our silver coins, let me say this. Treasury has a lot of silver on hand, and it can be and it will be used to keep the price of silver in line with its value in our present silver coin. There will be no profit in holding them out of circulation for the value of their silver content”:
https://www.gata.org/node/23296
It’s not known how long the U.S. government’s strategic silver inventory lasted after 1965 and how much was used for executing the price-suppression policy Johnson proclaimed. But eventually collectors and investors did exactly what the president warned would bring them no profit. They removed silver coins from circulation and hoarded them as inflation made them worth far more than their face values.
JPMorganChase Bank long has been a primary dealer in U.S. government securities and has been a particularly close agent of the U.S. Treasury Department. So when the exchange-traded fund SLV was launched in 2006 and JPMorganChase became custodian of the fund’s silver, fair suspicion arose about government involvement with the bank and the ETF. (The bank now is also a custodian of the metal of the major gold ETF, GLD, prompting more suspicion.)
After SLV was founded, complaints that JPMorganChase was manipulating the silver market grew loud enough that the bank felt obliged to answer them publicly.
SLIDE 8: JPM’s Blythe Masters on CNBC
First the bank’s CEO, Jamie Dimon, said the bank had no interest of its own in the monetary metals and traded them only for clients. Then in 2012 the head of the bank’s commodity desk, Blythe Masters, went on CNBC to emphasize this denial particularly in regard to silver.
Masters said: “There’s been a tremendous amount of speculation, particularly in the blogosphere, on this topic. … It represents a misunderstanding of the nature of our business. … Our business is a client-driven business where we execute on behalf of clients to achieve their financial and risk-management objectives. … We have offsetting positions. We have no stake in whether prices rise or decline”:
https://www.gata.org/node/11216
https://youtu.be/gc9Me4qFZYo?t=36
But since CNBC is a mainstream financial news organization, its reporter failed to put the critical follow-up question to Masters. That is, do JPMorganChase’s clients trading silver and other monetary or precious metals include governments, particularly the U.S. government, directly or indirectly?
SLIDE 9: Bloomberg News report, “From Profits to Pay…”
The answer to that question was provided inadvertently 10 years later, and was barely noticed by mainstream financial news organizations. It happened during the trial of the JPMorganChase traders charged with and convicted of “spoofing” the monetary metals futures markets. In the very last paragraph of its July 31, 2022, report about the trial —
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-31/from-profits-to-pay-jpmorgan-s-gold-secrets-spill-out-in-court
— Bloomberg News reported:
“Another set of important clients were central banks, which trade gold for their reserves and are among the biggest players in the bullion market. At least 10 central banks held their metal in vaults run by JPMorgan in 2010, according to documents disclosed in court.”
JPMorganChase was not just trading gold for central banks; it was vaulting gold for them too. It’s not hard to imagine that the bank was trading silver for governments and central banks as well — or at least for the government that in 1965 had threatened to rig the silver market.
* * *
Why in recent years have the major bullion banks all been selling gold and silver, apparently in collusion, something that ordinarily would violate anti-trust law, without being sanctioned by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission?
The most likely explanation is that their positions are actually U.S. government positions and they are acting as the government’s brokers, providing camouflage for government intervention.
SLIDE 10: ESF page from Treasury Department
That would make what seems like collusion among bullion banks perfectly legal, since the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 authorizes the U.S. government, through the Treasury Department’s Exchange Stabilization Fund, to intervene surreptitiously in any market in the world.
CME Group’s Central Bank Incentive Program facilitates this surreptitious intervention in the commodity futures markets.
The CFTC refuses to answer, for GATA and even for members of Congress, whether it has jurisdiction over manipulative trading undertaken by or at the behest of the U.S. government. Perhaps more than anything else, the CFTC’s refusal to answer this simple jurisdictional question confirms price-suppression policy.
* * *
So why have gold prices been rising for a year and a half and silver prices rising for most of the last six months?
It’s because central banks are no longer united on gold price suppression policy.
Two years ago their association, the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, declared gold to be a so-called Tier 1 asset, equivalent to U.S. treasuries and cash, an asset for which regulated banks need not hold any collateral. This classification of gold as a Tier 1 asset has spurred the trend away from the dollar and toward gold as a central bank and commercial bank reserve.
This trend was accelerated by the seizure of Russia assets by the United States and NATO countries when Russia invaded Ukraine to keep NATO out. The weaponizing of the dollar gave governments and central banks a powerful incentive to get out of the dollar and U.S. debt and to buy gold — the real stuff, to stop settling for paper claims on metal purportedly vaulted outside their borders, and to take delivery of it from the London and U.S. markets and the U.S. and British governments.
That is, other countries decided to stop making themselves hostages to U.S. imperialism.
SLIDE 11: Goldman Sachs
Central banks already had been switching from gold sellers and lenders to gold buyers out of concern about the worsening deficit spending by the U.S. government, which was sending inflation up:
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/gold-predicted-to-climb-higher-than-expected-as-records-shatter
SLIDE 12: Business Insider report on PBOC suspending gold purchases
But central banks remain deceptive about gold. While some have been announcing their acquisitions, others have been concealing them.
For the last six months the People’s Bank of China has made news by not reporting gold acquisitions in its monthly reports:
https://www.businessinsider.in/policy/economy/news/gold-is-getting-so-expensive-that-even-chinas-central-bank-stopped-buying-the-precious-metal/amp_articleshow/110911229.cms
But China’s not reporting gold acquisitions doesn’t mean that it didn’t actually acquire gold. A few years ago both China and Saudi Arabia were caught failing to report gold acquisitions to the IMF for long periods.
Geopolitical analyst Jim Rickards says the Chinese government has far more gold than it reports officially, keeping gold in accounts other than those of the central bank, as Saudi Arabia had done.
This year gold researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs found customs export data indicating the China and Saudi Arabia continue to buy gold they aren’t reporting:
https://www.gata.org/node/23309
https://www.gata.org/node/23367
All this confirms what the secret IMF staff report from March 1999 showed: that official data on gold reserves is not reliable. Indeed, the true location and disposition of central bank gold reserves are government secrets far more sensitive than the true location and disposition of nuclear weapons. For nuclear weapons can only destroy the world, but as that meeting at the State Department in April 1974 showed, gold can control the world.
* * *
The BRICs nations increasingly show interest in moving away from the U.S. dollar and U.S. domination. While last month’s BRICs conference in Kazan, Russia, did not produce the gold-backed trading currency that had been speculated about, it did approve a trading regime that Jim Rickards says is likely to induce its members to park their trade surpluses in gold, thus underpinning gold demand.
SLIDE 13: Russia in talks with BRICs
As a consequence of that conference Russia proposed that the BRICs group create its own monetary metals exchange:
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russia-talks-with-brics-over-precious-metals-exchange-2024-10-24/
Such an exchange would probably give some physical competition to the paper-hangers in London and New York.
In May 2012 the U.S. economists Paul Brodsky and Lee Quaintance advised gold bugs to stop complaining about gold price suppression. Brodsky and Quaintance hypothesized that the major central banks were cooperating in gold price suppression so they could acquire gold inexpensively and then redistribute it among themselves so they all would be adequately hedged against an inevitable devaluation of the dollar and other currencies, whereupon they would push the gold price way up and come out ahead:
https://www.gata.org/node/11373
These days there is much speculation about such a “big reset” of the world financial system, and gold researcher Niewenhuijs discovered last year that central banks already have established gold revaluation accounts for themselves, from which their gold can be revalued upward as necessary as a bookkeeping maneuver to restore their solvency:
https://www.gata.org/node/22761
SLIDE 14: Federal Reserve accounting manual
In August financial letter writer Luke Gromen reported that the United States also has a gold revaluation account, described in the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounting Manual:
https://www.gata.org/node/23328
Gold revaluation isn’t some nutty idea. Of course it’s what President Franklin D. Roosevelt did in 1934 immediately upon passage of the Gold Reserve Act. He revalued gold upward by nearly 70%, from $20.67 to $35 per ounce, so the government could sharply increase the money supply issued against the U.S. gold reserve in the middle of a depression.
In 2008 a former member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, Lyle Gramley, interviewed by Business News Network in Canada, responded to criticism that the Fed’s accounts were starting to look like a hedge fund’s. Gramley replied that the Fed could easily restore its solvency by an upward revaluation of the gold certificates it holds from the Treasury Department:
https://www.gata.org/node/6989
Gold revaluation is just a matter of accounting. Anyone with a stash of gold and a calculator can do it. But done by central banks, gold revaluation, a powerful form of money creation, would dramatically change all financial values in the world.
In any case central banks are not yet done with their intervention in the gold market. Such intervention continues every business day, painstakingly documented by GATA’s consultant about the Bank for International Settlements, Robert Lambourne. Lambourne examines the monthly statements of account issued by the BIS, from which he can calculate the tonnage of gold swaps the BIS has arranged and is carrying on behalf of its member central banks.
Lambourne seems to be the only analyst in the world to pursue this data, and while the BIS refuses to answer questions about it — exactly for whom the swaps are undertaken and for what purposes — the bank’s annual reports always confirm that Lambourne’s calculations of swap tonnage are correct.
SLIDE 15: BIS gold swaps chart
This chart shows that the BIS’ gold swaps have been declining steadily since 2021, even to zero at the end of 2022, and in recent months have been hanging around 100 tonnes.
These swaps almost certainly represent a sort of game of musical chairs central banks play with each other and bullion banks, moving gold or claims on gold around as necessary to prevent the gold market from blowing up somewhere from lack of supply.
That is, with almost every month the BIS statement of account shows that central banks are still fiddling with the gold market in ways they don’t want the world to know about. Some central banks — or at least one of them — is still trying to rig the gold market, while other central banks are beginning to realize that gold is the only mechanism for protecting or restoring their national sovereignty.
If you’re getting the impression that gold might be the only mechanism for protecting or restoring your own sovereignty, you have come to the right conference.
SLIDE 16: Contact information
If you’d like more information about GATA, would like to subscribe to our free dispatches, or even make a federally tax-exempt donation, please visit us at www.GATA.org. I’m glad to answer questions sent to CPowell@GATA.org.
Thanks for your kind attention.
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 199 ANDREW MAGUIRE
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 199
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING THURSDAY MORNING/WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR 0.07%
//Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 103.90 PTS OR 0.53%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 326.17 OR 0.85%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED DOWN 0.14%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED UP TO 7.2414 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED UP TO 7.2457// Oil UP TO 70.35 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 74.22 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING STRONGER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN STRONGER
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1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED UP AT 7.2414
OFFSHORE YUAN: UP TO 7.2457
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR 0.07%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED DOWN 103.90 PTS OR 0.53%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 326.17 PTS OR 0.85%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MIXED
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106.61 EURO FALLS TO 1.0523 DOWN 22 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.083 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 1534.44…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: UP OFFSHORE: UP
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil UP for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.3150 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.562 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 3.037
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.173
3j Gold at $2663.35 /Silver at: 30.97 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble UP 0 AND 30/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 100.89
3m oil into the 70 dollar handle for WTI and 74 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 154.44 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.083% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8830 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9297 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.397 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.586 DOWN 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.306 UP 0 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.50…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.4860 DOWN 6 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.411 UP 2 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.241 UP 3 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT\
Future Rise As Nvidia Reverses Premarket Losses Despite Russian ICBM Launch
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 08:25 AM
US equity futures reversed earlier losses and are now trading higher despite disappointing guidance from NVDA’s earnings after the market close which led to some pressure in equities this morning. As of 8:00am S&P futures are are up 0.2%, erasing an earlier loss of 0.4%, as traders weighed a lackluster forecast from Nvidia against Snowflake’s 20% premarket surge, which also lifted its peers. Nasdaq futures were up 0.1% with Nvidia erasing its earlier loss of as much as 3.2% after its 4Q forecast fell short of the most optimistic expectations, and even rising 1%. With Bitcoin rising as high as $98,000 MicroStrategy rallied as much as 11% in early hours trading. Bond yields are 2-3bp lower this morning and the USD is unchanged. Fears the Russia-Ukraine war is escalating helped lift oil and gold prices, while European natural gas futures hit the highest in a year. Ukraine reported that Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile during an overnight attack, while a Kremlin spokesman called Kyiv’s earlier use of UK Storm Shadow missiles a new escalation. Gold was flat and base metals are largely unchanged. Meanwhile, Trump’s search for a Treasury secretary remains in flux, with no candidate having emerged as the clear favorite. Today, key macro data focus will be Leading Index, Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales
In premarket trading, the world’s biggest company Nvidia dropped 1%, erasing an earlier loss as much as 3%, after the company assured investors that its new product lineup can maintain the company’s artificial intelligence-fueled growth run, though the rush to get the chips out the door is proving more costly than expected. Softward company Snowflake gained 22% after the company gave a better-than-expected sales outlook, suggesting newly launched products are receiving a strong reception from customers. Here are some other notable movers:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR), the largest publicly traded corporate holder of Bitcoin, rallied as much as 11%. The stock is extending gains after it announced an almost 50% increase in planned sales of convertible senior notes, to $2.6 billion, to fund purchases of more Bitcoin.
- Baidu ADRs (BIDU) falls about 2% after reporting a 3% sales decline in 3Q, citing weakness in online marketing amid a sluggish Chinese economy.
- BJ’s Wholesale (BJ) rises 7% after the warehouse-club operator increased some of its annual projections. Management announced the company’s first membership fee increase in seven years.
- Dream Finders Homes (DFH) climbs 8% amid news the company will replace Haynes International in the S&P SmallCap 600 prior to the open on Nov. 25.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW) declines about 2% after posting quarterly results. Raymond James said newly-adopted metrics were above expectations, though traditional metrics measuring activity such as billings and collecting cash saw a meaningful decline.
Traders will be watching US initial jobless claims later Thursday for signs on the strength of the economy and the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. An expected decision on President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury secretary is also in focus.
“Trump’s win has brought with it an increase in geopolitical uncertainty and that too is weighing on sentiment,” said Daniel Murray, Zurich-based chief executive officer of EFG Asset Management in Switzerland. “Ukraine now has an incentive to gain as much strategic advantage as possible ahead of Trump’s inauguration.”
On Wednesday, Boston Fed President Susan Collins said more rate cuts are needed, but policymakers should proceed carefully to avoid moving too quickly or too slowly. Swaps market pricing indicated a chance of around 50% that the Fed will cut rates again in December.
Europe’s Stoxx 600 was flat, erasing an earlier loss of 0.6%, as investors sentiment was dampened by fears of an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war and a disappointing revenue forecast from Nvidia. Autos and consumer stocks are the biggest laggards, while insurance is the only sector in the green. Here are some of the biggest movers on Thursday:
- Soitec surges as much as 21% as the semiconductor wafer maker’s reiterated full-year revenue and Ebitda outlook for 2025 brings reassurance.
- Jet2 shares surge as much as 12%, the biggest jump in two years, after the travel firm reported strong first-half earnings, including a pretax profit beat.
- MFE shares rise as much as 11% in Milan trading after the media company reported an increase in Ebit for the nine-month period and said it expects a growth in advertising revenues for the full year.
- Halma gains as much as 10%, the most in more than five months, after the health and safety sensor technology group released its first-half results.
- Ithaca Energy shares rise as much as 10% as the firm posted its first set of results since completing the acquisition of Eni’s UK upsteam assets.
- Zurich Insurance shares rise as much as 2.3% after the insurer outlined upbeat new targets for the next three years that came in above current expectations.
- Novartis shares rise as much as 0.8% after the Swiss pharmaceuticals giant company lifted its sales guidance, citing upbeat expectations for new medicines.
- JD Sports shares slide as much as 17% after the sports retailer issued a third-quarter sales update.
- CMC Markets shares slide as much as 14% after in-line first-half results weren’t sufficient to sustain strong gains in the lead up to the earnings.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks fell, heading for back-to-back losses, as some of the region’s tech heavyweights slid following Nvidia’s lackluster revenue forecast. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.4%, with TSMC and Sony Group among the biggest drags. Indian benchmarks underperformed as Adani Group units’ shares tumbled after US prosecutors charged Gautam Adani with helping to drive a $250 million bribery scheme. Adani’s units were among the worst performers on MSCI’s Asian equity gauge, with flagship unit Adani Enterprises Ltd. down as much as 23%. Sentiment has been week this month as investors brace for Donald Trump’s second presidency and the potential for higher tariffs, particularly on China. The dollar’s recent strength and concerns that the Federal Reserve may be less aggressive in easing also have sapped demand for Asian assets. MSCI’s regional benchmark is down more than 7% from its late September peak.
In FX, the dollar gained and the Japanese yen outperformed G10 peers on haven demand after Ukraine said Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile, ratcheting up geopolitical tensions. The USD/JPY fell as much as 0.9% to 154.09 after BOJ Governor Ueda earlier reiterated that he’s closely watching currency impacts on the economy and inflation, though said it’s not possible to predict the outcome of the central bank’s policy meeting. “Direction of travel remains skewed to the downside as Fed, BOJ’s policy normalization takes different form,” Christopher Wong, a currency strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore, said of dollar-yen moves. “Risk to this view is a case of slowing BOJ policy normalization and/or Fed in no hurry to cut, alongside Trump policy uncertainties.”
In rates, treasuries are slightly richer on the day across front-end and belly of the curve, but TSY futures are off session highs as WTI crude oil futures rise more than 2%. Investors flocked to safe-haven assets with the bid in Treasuries pushing US 10-year yields as much as 3 bps lower to 4.38%, with bunds and gilts also gaining, after Ukraine said Russia launched a intercontinental ballistic missile. At 8:00am ET, rates were ~1bp lower across the front-end with 10-year little changed near 4.40%, outperforming comparable bunds and gilts by around 1bp; curve spreads are little changed. US session includes weekly jobless claims data, four scheduled Fed speakers and an auction of 10-year TIPS. The TIPS auction at 1pm New York time, a $17b second reopening of the July new issue, is the final coupon sale this week; next week’s auctions, to be confirmed at 11am, are anticipated to span Monday to Wednesday ahead of US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday
In commodities, oil prices gained with WTI up 1.6% to $69.80 a barrel. European natural gas prices also jump. Spot gold climbed $18 to $2,668/oz.
Bitcoin topped $98,000 for the first time on optimism Trump’s support for crypto heralds a boom for the industry as the US pivots to friendly regulations in place of a crackdown. Trump’s transition team has begun to hold discussions over whether to create a White House post dedicated to digital-asset policy.
Looking at today’s calendar, US economic data calendar includes November Philadelphia Fed business outlook and jobless claims (8:30am), October Leading index and existing homes sales (10am) and November Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity (11am). Fed speaker slate includes Hammack (8:45am, 12:30pm), Goolsbee (12:25pm), Schmid (12:40pm) and Barr (4:40pm).
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.5% to 5,910.00
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.5% to 497.80
- MXAP down 0.3% to 182.15
- MXAPJ down 0.6% to 577.43
- Nikkei down 0.9% to 38,026.17
- Topix down 0.6% to 2,682.81
- Hang Seng Index down 0.5% to 19,601.11
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,370.40
- Sensex down 0.6% to 77,127.48
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 8,322.96
- Kospi little changed at 2,480.63
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.33%
- Euro down 0.3% to $1.0514
- Brent Futures up 1.1% to $73.61/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.6% to $2,666.61
- US Dollar Index little changed at 106.73
Top Overnight News
- Chinese government advisers are recommending that Beijing should maintain an economic growth target of around 5.0% for next year, pushing for stronger fiscal stimulus to mitigate the impact of expected U.S. tariff hikes on the country’s exports. Reuters
- Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba is set to unveil a $140 billion stimulus package to address challenges from inflation to wage growth, following his election promises to alleviate a cost-of-living crunch. BBG
- According to Ukraine’s Air Force Command, Russia hit Ukraine with an ICBM for the first time since Putin launched his war nearly 1000 days ago. BBG
- Ukraine is getting more help from Joe Biden. His administration told Congress it plans to cancel $4.65 billion in debt owed by the country, the latest in a series of moves meant to bolster support for Kyiv before Donald Trump takes office. BBG
- US officials are meeting with Netanyahu on Thursday as the White House pushes hard for a Lebanon ceasefire. FT
- Richmond Fed President Barkin said he anticipates US inflation will continue cooling, even though progress has plateaued somewhat of late. FT
- Donald Trump has not yet been fully sold on his top 3 Treasury Secretary Candidates (Warsh, Rowan, or Bessent) as he struggles to find someone both emphatically supportive of tariffs and who would be welcomed by markets. BBG
- Marty Makary is reportedly seen as the leading candidate for US President-elect Trump’s FDA nomination: BBG
- US ETFs investing in Bitcoin surpassed $100 billion in total assets, fueled by optimism surrounding Donald Trump’s plans to foster the growth of the crypto industry. BBG
- The Justice Department on Wednesday said Google should have to sell off its popular Chrome browser as part of a court-ordered fix to its monopolization of the online search market. WSJ
- Fed’s Barkin (2024 Voter) says “Fed should not pre-emptively adjust monetary policy ahead of possible changes in economic policy; US is more vulnerable to inflation shocks”, via FT. “Forthcoming rate decision would depend on data.”. “If you got inflation staying above out target, that makes the case to be more careful about reducing rates. If you got unemployment accelerating, that makes the case to be more forward-leaning.”
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said some additional rate cuts are needed as policy is still restrictive but she doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly and warned that overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market. Collins also stated that the final destination of rate cuts is unclear and monetary policy is well positioned for the economic outlook, while she added monetary policy is not on a preset course and Fed policy decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) says sees inflation is cooling and interest rates falling further, adds 2% is the rate that can best balance the central bank’s employment and price stability goals, according to Barron’s
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the indecisive lead from the US where geopolitics and Nvidia earnings were in the spotlight. ASX 200 lacked firm direction amid weakness in the consumer-related sectors and after Westpac pushed back its forecast for when the RBA will begin cutting rates to May next year from a prior forecast of February. Nikkei 225 underperformed and tested the 38,000 level to the downside as the Japanese currency nursed some of its recent losses and despite a report that Japan is planning an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were uninspired as participants digested recent earnings releases although support was seen in automakers after a MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
Top Asian News
- Four Chinese government advisers advocate for a 2025 growth target of around 5% which is similar to this year, while one adviser presses for a growth target of above 4% and another recommends a 4.5%-5% range, while advisers suggested a higher budget deficit could mitigate the impact of expected US tariffs, according to Reuters.
- China MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
- Chinese banks are seen cutting lending rates in 2025 but may leave lending rates unchanged next month, according to analysts cited by China Securities Journal.
- Japan reportedly plans an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln, according to NHK. It was later reported that Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki said the LDP-led coalition is introducing measures to reflect DPP requests as much as possible.
- Baidu (9888 HK) Q3 (CNY) adj. EPS 16.6 (prev. 20.4), Revenue 33.65bln (exp. 33.3bln)
European bourses began the session on a mixed footing, but gradually teetered lower soon after the cash open. A further extension of the downside was seen following updates via the Kremlin’s spokesperson who noted that the storm shadow attack at Russia is a new escalation, via TASS. Thereafter, ABC News reported that it is not confirmed that Russia used a ICBM last night, which helped to lift bourses incrementally off lows. European sectors opened with a slight positive bias, before sentiment soured to show a strong negative bias in Europe. Insurance manages to stay in mild positive territory, largely attributed to gains in Zurich Insurance after the co. announced their 2025-27 targets. Autos are Europe’s worst sector, joined closely by Consumer Products; seemingly weighed on by the defensive bias. US equity futures are modestly lower across the board, and with slight underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ after NVIDIA reported its Q3 results; the Co. is down 3.4% in pre-market trade, despite reporting strong headline metrics, but its Q4 guidance ultimately disappointed on the top-end of analyst expectations. NVIDIA (NVDA) – Shares -3% in pre-market trade; despite top- and bottom line beats, some analysts were seeking firmer guidance for Q4, and were disappointed by slowing growth rates, while some also continue to cite production concerns. Nvidia reported Q3 adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.75), Q3 revenue USD 35.08bln (exp. 33.12bln). Q3 adj. gross margin 75% (exp. 75%), Q3 adj. operating expenses USD 3.05bln (exp. 2.99bln), Q3 adj. operating income 23.28bln (exp. 21.9bln). Exec said Blackwell production continue to ramp into fiscal 2026. Ahead, it sees Q4 revenue at around USD 37.5bln+/- 2% (exp. 37.1bln), and sees Q4 adj. gross margins between 73-74% (exp. 73.5%).
Top European News
- ECB’s Villeroy said inflation could sustainably be at 2% in early 2025 and the economy remains resilient, while stated that victory against inflation is in sight in Europe but added the balance of risks on growth and inflation is shifting to the downside. Villeroy said it is possible that US tariffs are not expected to alter significantly the inflation outlook in Europe and the degree of monetary policy restriction should continue to be reduced in which the pace must be determined by agile pragmatism, with full optionality maintained for upcoming meetings.
- ECB’s Stournaras says “25bps December rate cut is the right response; should cut every meeting until we reach 2%; neutral rate on average is about 2%”, via Bloomberg TV.
- Bundesbank says a significant number of German corporate insolvencies are likely next year with corporate default risk to remain elevated
FX
- DXY is higher but with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers. Fresh macro drivers for the US remain light and as such, risk sentiment may carry sway for the Greenback. Today’s US slate sees US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, US Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee & Barr. DXY has been as high as 106.74 but has stopped shy of Wednesday’s 106.91 peak.
- EUR on the backfoot vs. the USD with some modest weakness triggered by geopolitical angst surrounding Russia-Ukraine. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.0515 but is holding above yesterday’s 1.0506 floor.
- JPY is firmer vs. the USD in what has been a choppy week for USD/JPY. Fresh macro drivers for the US and Japan have been lacking with JPY instead gaining impetus from some of the risk-aversion triggered by tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
- GBP on the backfoot vs. the USD and extending downside after yesterday’s failure to hold above the 1.27 mark post-UK CPI. Fresh macro drivers for the GBP are light and the currency is flat vs. the EUR. Today’s docket sees another appearance from BoE’s Mann. Cable’s low for the session is at 1.2624.
- Mildly diverging fortunes for Antipodeans with the AUD faring better than the Kiwi. AUD/USD has managed to hold above the 0.65 mark after yesterday’s session of losses. NZD/USD has extended on yesterday’s selling and slid further on a 0.58 handle.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1935).
Fixed Income
- A contained start for USTs with fresh drivers somewhat light after the 20yr auction on Wednesday (which was weak) and as we await the latest weekly jobs data before the latest wave of Fed speakers. USTs have remained in a narrow 109-20+ to 109-25+ parameters; the high of which printed most recently as Russia described Ukraine’s use of storm shadow missiles as a “new escalation”.
- Bunds are firmer on the session and at highs given the latest geopolitical updates and specifically commentary from the Russian Kremlin on storm shadow. At a 132.52 peak, having comfortably reclaimed the 132.00 handle after languishing just below the mark throughout much of the APAC session. The morning has seen supply from Spain and France, which was somewhat tepid vs recent outings for Spain, though not sufficiently so to spark any reaction, and France thereafter was well received.
- Gilts are bid in tandem with peers but also as the benchmark rebounds from Wednesday’s CPI-induced pressures. However, the odds of a December BoE cut remain stuck at around the 15% mark. Action which has taken Gilts back above the 94.00 handle, surpassing Wednesday’s 93.81 best.
- France sells EUR 11bln vs exp. EUR 9-11bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2030, 0.00% 2030 OAT Auction.
- Spain sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 3.10% 2031, 4.20% 2037 Bono & 1.00% 2042 Green Bono.
- UK sells GBP 2bln 0.125% 2026 Gilt via tender: b/c 4.31x and average yield 3.996%.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are firmer on the session, benefitting from the tense geopolitical backdrop as updates out of Russia continue to weigh on general risk sentiment. Benchmarks posting gains of just under USD 1/bbl on the session and in proximity to respective highs of USD 69.84/bbl and USD 73.87/bbl.
- Dutch TTF printed a fresh YTD high of EUR 48.15/MW, benefitting from the above with magnitudes more pronounced than in the crude space. The next point of resistance comes into play at EUR 49.81/MWh from early-December 2023.
- Spot gold is firmer, benefitting from the tense geopolitical environment and the generally soft risk tone on this and after NVIDIA’s results. Action which has seen havens generally benefit across the board with the DXY, JPY and fixed income bid.
- Base metals struggled for direction overnight, but have since slipped into mostly negative territory given the dip in risk sentiment owing to geopolitical updates out of Russia/Ukraine.
- US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly planning to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline, according to POLITICO.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- Israel conducted raids on southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli air strikes on several houses in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip killed and wounded dozens, according to medics.
- US Senate blocked measures that would have halted sales of tank rounds and joint direct attack munitions to Israel.
- Israel’s Channel 14 quoting an Israeli political official reports “It is likely that no agreement with Lebanon will be announced during Hochstein’s visit to Israel” but there is optimism that an agreement to end the war could be reached within a week.
Russia-Ukraine
- Western Official tells CNN news that Russia did not use an ICBM last night, Ukraine air force said it was a ballistic missile and declined to characterise it further. Ukraine air force declined to comment, saying the impact was still being assessed. Prior to this, Ukrainian media Ukrainska Pravda say a RS-26 ballistic missile was used to hit Dnipro. The original report was via Ukraine’s Airforce which announced Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Astrakhan region in the morning.
- Ukraine’s airforce announces ballistic missile attack alert, via Bloomberg; explosions heard in Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih, via RBC Ukraine.
- Kremlin Spokesperson says storm shadow attack on Russia is a new escalation, according to TASS.
- Russia’s Foreign Ministry says Russia is open to talks on Ukraine, ready to look at realistic initiatives.
- Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on the US missile base in Poland, says this results in an increase to the overall level of nuclear danger. The base has long been a priority target, which can be hit with “Russian new weapons”. Adds, Russia is open to talks on Ukraine, ready to look at realistic initiatives.
US Event Calendar
- 08:30: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 217,000
- Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.88m, prior 1.87m
- 08:30: Nov. Philadelphia Fed Business Outl, est. 8.0, prior 10.3
- 10:00: Oct. Leading Index, est. -0.3%, prior -0.5%
- 10:00: Oct. Existing Home Sales est. 3.95m, prior 3.84m
- Oct. Existing Home Sales MoM, est. 2.9%, prior -1.0%
- 11:00: Nov. Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity, est. -5, prior -4
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Nvidia’s results overnight drew a tepid reaction despite a solid Q3 beat by the world’s most valuable company as its guidance failed to match some of the loftiest expectations. Q3 sales came in at $35.1bn (vs $33.2bn est.) and the earnings surprise the strongest in three quarters. However, the Q4 sales guidance at $37.5bn, was “only” a touch above the average analyst estimate of $37.1bn. The company’s earnings call talked of “very strong” demand for its new Blackwell chips that will begin to ship this quarter, but overall it was deemed to be a slightly underwhelming outcome with Nvidia’s shares down -2.5% in post-market trading. Of course, this has be to put in perspective of the stock’s +195% rally YTD.
Off the back of this, S&P 500 and NASDAQ futures are trading -0.16% and -0.25% lower as I type which overall means this potential high-volatility event has broadly passed without major incident. However, it has dampened sentiment a touch in Asia with the Nikkei (-0.65%) is leading losses with the Hang Seng (-0.14%) also lower. As I type, Chinese equities are reversing losses though with the Shanghai Composite (+0.25%) joining the KOSPI (+0.35%) higher. Also higher is Bitcoin (+3.40%) as it shows no signs of slowing, advancing for a fourth consecutive session, and trading at $97,670 as I type.
Ahead of Nvidia’s results, markets had managed to mostly shake off the negative mood that had dominated the session, with the S&P 500 ending the session flat (+0.002% to be precise) with more than 60% of its constituents higher on the day. The index had traded in the red almost all of the day, having been down nearly -1% early in the session as several concerns weighed on sentiment. Matters weren’t helped by a very weak earnings release from Target (-21.97%), which was the worst performer in the entire index after they cut the earnings outlook. The Magnificent 7 (-0.54%) also dragged on the broader market, with an uptick in volatility seeing the VIX Index (+0.81pts to 17.16pts) rise to its highest closing level since the US election. And there were modest declines in Europe, where the STOXX 600 (-0.02%) fell narrowly back to a fresh 3-month low, while the DAX (-0.29%), CAC (-0.43%) and FTSE 100 (-0.17%) saw slightly larger declines.
The earlier negative market driver was fears of an escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The geopolitical risk-off tone saw gold (+0.70%) post a third consecutive increase, while the dollar index rose +0.41%. Another related market theme was a notable rise in near-term inflation expectations, with the US 2yr inflation swap up +5.1bps to 2.72%. That’s its highest level since March 2023, right before SVB’s collapse, and it shows how investors have adjusted their expectations relative to early September, when it fell beneath 2%.
With inflation expectations moving higher, markets continued to pair back near-term Fed rate cut expectations, with the market odds of a December rate cut falling to 52% from 59% the previous day. The 13bps of easing now priced for the December meeting is the lowest that it’s been since April. This came as Fed officials continued to strike a patient tone. Fed Governor Bowman said she “would prefer to proceed cautiously” with further easing and Boston Fed’s Collins said that while “some additional policy easing is needed”, the cuts delivered so far “enable the FOMC to be careful and deliberate going forward”.
Global bonds mostly sold off yesterday, with the 2yr Treasury yield up +3.5bps to 4.32%, whilst the 10yr yield was +1.5bps higher at 4.41%. The Treasury sell-off was reinforced by a weak 20yr auction that saw bonds issued 3bps above the pre-sale yield. European yields also saw similar moves, with those on 10yr bunds (+1.3bps), OATs (+2.9bps) and BTPs (+2.8bps) all rising. Meanwhile in the UK, 10yr gilts (+2.7bps) sold off after the latest CPI print was above expectations in October. For example, headline CPI rose to a six-month high of +2.3% (vs. +2.2% expected), whilst core CPI was up to +3.3% (vs. +3.1% expected). So that led investors to dial back their expectations for rate cuts from the BoE, with the likelihood of another cut by February down to 78% now.
Over in the US, there was still no sign of who Donald Trump would appoint as his new Treasury Secretary. The four names widely reported to be in the frame include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, Apollo CEO Marc Rowan, hedge fund manager Scott Bessent and Senator Bill Hagerty. Bloomberg reported that Trump was scheduled to hold interviews yesterday with Warsh and Rowan, and that Hagerty had spent much of the day with Trump on Tuesday.
To the day ahead now, and data releases from the US include the weekly initial jobless claims, existing home sales for October, and the Conference Board’s leading index for October. In the Euro Area, we’ll also get the European Commission’s preliminary consumer confidence indicator for November. From central banks, we’ll hear from the Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee and Barr, the ECB’s Knot, Holzmann, Cipollone, Escriva, Patsalides, Elderson, Lane, Kazimir, Vujcic, and the BoE’s Mann.
2B) European report.
NVDA -2% as revenue growth slows, havens lifted by tensions between Russia and Ukraine. – Newsquawk US Market Open
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 06:23 AM
- Equities generally modestly lower; NVDA -3% pre-market despite headline beats as Q4 guidance disappoints.
- Ukraine’s airforce announced that Russia launched an ICBM, Ukrainian media specified it was a RS-26 missile; however, CNN reports that ICBM usage has not been confirmed.
- Dollar is slightly firmer, JPY outperforms benefiting from the risk-aversion triggered by tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
- Bonds are benefiting from the geopolitical risk-premia into numerous central bank speakers.
- Crude is firmer and resides just off session highs, gas outperforms & XAU bid whilst base metals are dented by the risk tone.
- Looking ahead, US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, US Existing Home Sales, SARB Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB’s Patsalides, Lane, Elderson & Holzmann, Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee & Barr, SNB’s Tschudin & Moser, BoE’s Mann, Earnings from Deere, Gap & Intuit.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses began the session on a mixed footing, but gradually teetered lower soon after the cash open. A further extension of the downside was seen following updates via the Kremlin’s spokesperson who noted that the storm shadow attack at Russia is a new escalation, via TASS. Thereafter, ABC News reported that it is not confirmed that Russia used a ICBM last night, which helped to lift bourses incrementally off lows.
- European sectors opened with a slight positive bias, before sentiment soured to show a strong negative bias in Europe. Insurance manages to stay in mild positive territory, largely attributed to gains in Zurich Insurance after the co. announced their 2025-27 targets. Autos are Europe’s worst sector, joined closely by Consumer Products; seemingly weighed on by the defensive bias.
- US equity futures are modestly lower across the board, and with slight underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ after NVIDIA reported its Q3 results; the Co. is down 3.4% in pre-market trade, despite reporting strong headline metrics, but its Q4 guidance ultimately disappointed on the top-end of analyst expectations.
- NVIDIA (NVDA) – Shares -3% in pre-market trade; despite top- and bottom line beats, some analysts were seeking firmer guidance for Q4, and were disappointed by slowing growth rates, while some also continue to cite production concerns. Nvidia reported Q3 adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.75), Q3 revenue USD 35.08bln (exp. 33.12bln). Q3 adj. gross margin 75% (exp. 75%), Q3 adj. operating expenses USD 3.05bln (exp. 2.99bln), Q3 adj. operating income 23.28bln (exp. 21.9bln). Exec said Blackwell production continue to ramp into fiscal 2026. Ahead, it sees Q4 revenue at around USD 37.5bln+/- 2% (exp. 37.1bln), and sees Q4 adj. gross margins between 73-74% (exp. 73.5%).
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- DXY is higher but with the USD showing a mixed performance vs. peers. Fresh macro drivers for the US remain light and as such, risk sentiment may carry sway for the Greenback. Today’s US slate sees US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, US Existing Home Sales, Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee & Barr. DXY has been as high as 106.74 but has stopped shy of Wednesday’s 106.91 peak.
- EUR on the backfoot vs. the USD with some modest weakness triggered by geopolitical angst surrounding Russia-Ukraine. EUR/USD has been as low as 1.0515 but is holding above yesterday’s 1.0506 floor.
- JPY is firmer vs. the USD in what has been a choppy week for USD/JPY. Fresh macro drivers for the US and Japan have been lacking with JPY instead gaining impetus from some of the risk-aversion triggered by tensions between Russia and Ukraine.
- GBP on the backfoot vs. the USD and extending downside after yesterday’s failure to hold above the 1.27 mark post-UK CPI. Fresh macro drivers for the GBP are light and the currency is flat vs. the EUR. Today’s docket sees another appearance from BoE’s Mann. Cable’s low for the session is at 1.2624.
- Mildly diverging fortunes for Antipodeans with the AUD faring better than the Kiwi. AUD/USD has managed to hold above the 0.65 mark after yesterday’s session of losses. NZD/USD has extended on yesterday’s selling and slid further on a 0.58 handle.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1935).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- A contained start for USTs with fresh drivers somewhat light after the 20yr auction on Wednesday (which was weak) and as we await the latest weekly jobs data before the latest wave of Fed speakers. USTs have remained in a narrow 109-20+ to 109-25+ parameters; the high of which printed most recently as Russia described Ukraine’s use of storm shadow missiles as a “new escalation”.
- Bunds are firmer on the session and at highs given the latest geopolitical updates and specifically commentary from the Russian Kremlin on storm shadow. At a 132.52 peak, having comfortably reclaimed the 132.00 handle after languishing just below the mark throughout much of the APAC session. The morning has seen supply from Spain and France, which was somewhat tepid vs recent outings for Spain, though not sufficiently so to spark any reaction, and France thereafter was well received.
- Gilts are bid in tandem with peers but also as the benchmark rebounds from Wednesday’s CPI-induced pressures. However, the odds of a December BoE cut remain stuck at around the 15% mark. Action which has taken Gilts back above the 94.00 handle, surpassing Wednesday’s 93.81 best.
- France sells EUR 11bln vs exp. EUR 9-11bln 2.50% 2027, 0.75% 2028, 2.75% 2030, 0.00% 2030 OAT Auction.
- Spain sells EUR 4.25bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 3.10% 2031, 4.20% 2037 Bono & 1.00% 2042 Green Bono.
- UK sells GBP 2bln 0.125% 2026 Gilt via tender: b/c 4.31x and average yield 3.996%.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are firmer on the session, benefitting from the tense geopolitical backdrop as updates out of Russia continue to weigh on general risk sentiment. Benchmarks posting gains of just under USD 1/bbl on the session and in proximity to respective highs of USD 69.84/bbl and USD 73.87/bbl.
- Dutch TTF printed a fresh YTD high of EUR 48.15/MW, benefitting from the above with magnitudes more pronounced than in the crude space. The next point of resistance comes into play at EUR 49.81/MWh from early-December 2023.
- Spot gold is firmer, benefitting from the tense geopolitical environment and the generally soft risk tone on this and after NVIDIA’s results. Action which has seen havens generally benefit across the board with the DXY, JPY and fixed income bid.
- Base metals struggled for direction overnight, but have since slipped into mostly negative territory given the dip in risk sentiment owing to geopolitical updates out of Russia/Ukraine.
- US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly planning to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline, according to POLITICO.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK PSNB Ex Banks GBP (Oct) 17.4B GB vs. Exp. 12.3B GB (Prev. 16.613B GB); PSNCR, GBP (Oct) 19.7B GB (Prev. -20.484B GB)
- French Business Climate Mfg (Nov) 97.0 vs. Exp. 95.0 (Prev. 92.0, Rev. 93)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Villeroy said inflation could sustainably be at 2% in early 2025 and the economy remains resilient, while stated that victory against inflation is in sight in Europe but added the balance of risks on growth and inflation is shifting to the downside. Villeroy said it is possible that US tariffs are not expected to alter significantly the inflation outlook in Europe and the degree of monetary policy restriction should continue to be reduced in which the pace must be determined by agile pragmatism, with full optionality maintained for upcoming meetings.
- ECB’s Stournaras says “25bps December rate cut is the right response; should cut every meeting until we reach 2%; neutral rate on average is about 2%”, via Bloomberg TV.
- Bundesbank says a significant number of German corporate insolvencies are likely next year with corporate default risk to remain elevated
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump’s search for a Treasury Secretary remains “in flux”, via Bloomberg; Trump is yet to be entirely sold on the candidates he has interviewed thus far.
- Fed’s Barkin (2024 Voter) says “Fed should not pre-emptively adjust monetary policy ahead of possible changes in economic policy; US is more vulnerable to inflation shocks”, via FT. “Forthcoming rate decision would depend on data.”. “If you got inflation staying above out target, that makes the case to be more careful about reducing rates. If you got unemployment accelerating, that makes the case to be more forward-leaning.”
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said some additional rate cuts are needed as policy is still restrictive but she doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly and warned that overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market. Collins also stated that the final destination of rate cuts is unclear and monetary policy is well positioned for the economic outlook, while she added monetary policy is not on a preset course and Fed policy decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) says sees inflation is cooling and interest rates falling further, adds 2% is the rate that can best balance the central bank’s employment and price stability goals, according to Barron’s
- Marty Makary is reportedly seen as the leading candidate for US President-elect Trump’s FDA nomination, according to Bloomberg.
- US Justice Department proposed remedies in the Google (GOOG) search monopoly case and asked the judge to make Google divest its Chrome browser and said it should not be allowed to re-enter the browser market for five years, while the DoJ asked the judge to make Google divest its Android operating system if other remedies fail to restore competition. Furthermore, it asked the judge to order Google to syndicate search results and information to competitors for 10 years, while it seeks an end to Google’s multibillion-dollar payments to Apple (AAPL) that ensure it is the default search engine on Apple devices and seeks to prohibit Google from buying or investing in any search rivals, query-based AI products, or ad tech.
GEOPOLITICS
Middle-East
- Israel conducted raids on southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli air strikes on several houses in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip killed and wounded dozens, according to medics.
- US Senate blocked measures that would have halted sales of tank rounds and joint direct attack munitions to Israel.
- Israel’s Channel 14 quoting an Israeli political official reports “It is likely that no agreement with Lebanon will be announced during Hochstein’s visit to Israel” but there is optimism that an agreement to end the war could be reached within a week.
Russia-Ukraine
- Western Official tells CNN news that Russia did not use an ICBM last night, Ukraine air force said it was a ballistic missile and declined to characterise it further. Ukraine air force declined to comment, saying the impact was still being assessed. Prior to this, Ukrainian media Ukrainska Pravda say a RS-26 ballistic missile was used to hit Dnipro. The original report was via Ukraine’s Airforce which announced Russia launched intercontinental ballistic missiles from the Astrakhan region in the morning.
- Ukraine’s airforce announces ballistic missile attack alert, via Bloomberg; explosions heard in Ukraine’s Kryvyi Rih, via RBC Ukraine.
- Kremlin Spokesperson says storm shadow attack on Russia is a new escalation, according to TASS.
- Russia’s Foreign Ministry says Russia is open to talks on Ukraine, ready to look at realistic initiatives.
- Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, on the US missile base in Poland, says this results in an increase to the overall level of nuclear danger. The base has long been a priority target, which can be hit with “Russian new weapons”. Adds, Russia is open to talks on Ukraine, ready to look at realistic initiatives.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin is on a firmer footing and holds firmly above USD 97k to a current record high at USD 97.9k.
- Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong sold 52.3k shares on November 18th for a total USD 19.1mln.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the indecisive lead from the US where geopolitics and Nvidia earnings were in the spotlight.
- ASX 200 lacked firm direction amid weakness in the consumer-related sectors and after Westpac pushed back its forecast for when the RBA will begin cutting rates to May next year from a prior forecast of February.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed and tested the 38,000 level to the downside as the Japanese currency nursed some of its recent losses and despite a report that Japan is planning an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were uninspired as participants digested recent earnings releases although support was seen in automakers after a MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Four Chinese government advisers advocate for a 2025 growth target of around 5% which is similar to this year, while one adviser presses for a growth target of above 4% and another recommends a 4.5%-5% range, while advisers suggested a higher budget deficit could mitigate the impact of expected US tariffs, according to Reuters.
- China MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
- Chinese banks are seen cutting lending rates in 2025 but may leave lending rates unchanged next month, according to analysts cited by China Securities Journal.
- Japan reportedly plans an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln, according to NHK. It was later reported that Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki said the LDP-led coalition is introducing measures to reflect DPP requests as much as possible.
- Baidu (9888 HK) Q3 (CNY) adj. EPS 16.6 (prev. 20.4), Revenue 33.65bln (exp. 33.3bln)
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC stocks mixed with geopols and NVIDIA results, Co. lower by 2.5% after hours – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 01:51 AM
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the indecisive lead from the US where geopolitics and Nvidia earnings were in the spotlight.
- NVIDIA was lower by 2.5% after hours despite top and bottom line beats; concerns cited over production levels and slowing growth rates.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.
- DXY has taken a breather from recent advances, JPY is attempting to nurse losses vs. the USD, EUR/USD sits around 1.0550.
- Looking ahead, highlights US Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index, US Existing Home Sales, CBRT & SARB Policy Announcement, ECB’s Villeroy, Cipollone, Patsalides, Lane, Elderson & Holzmann, Fed’s Hammack, Goolsbee & Barr, SNB’s Tschudin & Moser, RBA Governor Bullock & BoE’s Mann, Supply from Spain, France, US & UK.
SNAPSHOT
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US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks ultimately closed mixed with markets choppy amid geopolitical headlines on a data-light day and as participants awaited Nvidia earnings after-hours, while there was a late rally into the closing bell which helped the major indices finish off their worst levels. However, futures then saw mild two-way price action after-hours amid fluctuations in Nvidia post-earnings despite the AI darling beating on its top and bottom lines.
- SPX +0.00% at 5,917, NDX -0.09% at 20,667, DJIA +0.32% at 43,408, RUT +0.03% at 2,326.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- Fed Governor Bowman (voter) said the Fed should pursue a cautious approach on monetary policy and may be closer to neutral policy than policymakers currently think but noted that inflation remains a concern. Furthermore, Bowman noted concern they are recalibrating policy but have not reached the inflation goal, while she added the Fed needs to be flexible and needs to be patient and cautious about what the immigration policy approach will be.
- Fed’s Collins (2025 voter) said some additional rate cuts are needed as policy is still restrictive but she doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly and warned that overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market. Collins also stated that the final destination of rate cuts is unclear and monetary policy is well positioned for the economic outlook, while she added monetary policy is not on a preset course and Fed policy decisions will be made meeting-by-meeting.
- Fed’s Williams (voter) says sees inflation is cooling and interest rates falling further, adds 2% is the rate that can best balance the central bank’s employment and price stability goals, according to Barron’s
- Marty Makary is reportedly seen as the leading candidate for US President-elect Trump’s FDA nomination, according to Bloomberg.
- US Justice Department proposed remedies in the Google (GOOG) search monopoly case and asked the judge to make Google divest its Chrome browser and said it should not be allowed to re-enter the browser market for five years, while the DoJ asked the judge to make Google divest its Android operating system if other remedies fail to restore competition. Furthermore, it asked the judge to order Google to syndicate search results and information to competitors for 10 years, while it seeks an end to Google’s multibillion-dollar payments to Apple (AAPL) that ensure it is the default search engine on Apple devices and seeks to prohibit Google from buying or investing in any search rivals, query-based AI products, or ad tech.
- Nvidia Corp (NVDA) Q3 2025 (USD): Adj. EPS 0.81 (exp. 0.75), Revenue 35.08bln (exp. 33.12bln). Q3 adj. gross margin 75% (exp. 75%), Q3 adj. operating expenses USD 3.05bln (exp. 2.99bln), Q3 adj. operating income 23.28bln (exp. 21.9bln). Exec said Blackwell production continue to ramp into fiscal 2026; it will be shipping both Hopper and Blackwell in Q4 FY25; Blackwell production shipments to begin in Q4 FY25; said that Hopper and Blackwell systems have some supply constraints, but Blackwell to exceed supply for several quarters in FY26. Co. shares were lower by 2.5% after-hours.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks were mostly subdued after the indecisive lead from the US where geopolitics and Nvidia earnings were in the spotlight.
- ASX 200 lacked firm direction amid weakness in the consumer-related sectors and after Westpac pushed back its forecast for when the RBA will begin cutting rates to May next year from a prior forecast of February.
- Nikkei 225 underperformed and tested the 38,000 level to the downside as the Japanese currency nursed some of its recent losses and despite a report that Japan is planning an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were uninspired as participants digested recent earnings releases although support was seen in automakers after a MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%, NQ -0.3%) were slightly pressured in the aftermath of Nvidia’s earnings which beat on the top and bottom lines but failed to underpin the Co. shares as the figures were beneath the analysts’ top estimates and showed a slowing in sales growth.
- European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.5% on Wednesday.
FX
- DXY took a breather and held on to most of the prior day’s notable gains in thin macro newsflow and a light data docket so far this week, although there were several Fed speakers including Cook who kept the options open and stated that policy is not on a pre-set path. Furthermore, Bowman noted concern that the Fed is calibrating policy despite not reaching its inflation goal, while Collins said some additional rate cuts are needed as policy is still restrictive but she doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly and warned that overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market.
- EUR/USD regained some composure after sliding firmly beneath the 1.0600 level yesterday as it gave way to the firmer dollar and briefly approached near the 1.0500 level where support held. There were recent comments from ECB officials including from Stournaras who stated the ECB may increasingly need to avoid inflation undershoot but added that rates will stay restrictive for some time, while Thursday’s calendar is also packed with an abundance of central bank rhetoric.
- GBP/USD remained lacklustre after failing to sustain a brief return to the 1.2700 territory in the aftermath of the firmer-than-expected UK inflation, which was overshadowed by the broad dollar strength.
- USD/JPY pulled back from this week’s peak and retested the 155.00 level to the downside ahead of BoJ Governor Ueda’s comments which proved to be a non-event as he spoke very little on monetary policy.
- Antipodeans eked mild gains in quiet trade and after the PBoC set a firmer-than-expected CNY reference rate setting but with the upside contained in the absence of any tier-1 releases and amid the overall lacklustre risk sentiment.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1934 vs exp. 7.2482 (prev. 7.1935).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures traded flat with demand constrained by the absence of major catalysts and after a below-par US 20yr auction.
- Bund futures were indecisive and remained stuck around the 132.00 level following the recent choppy performance and Bund supply.
- 10yr JGB futures languished near contract lows with slight gains seen in domestic yields including the 5yr which rose to its highest since 2009, while there was little to spur demand and the results of the latest 20yr JGB auction were mixed.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were mildly higher in rangebound trade after the prior day’s choppy performance amid mixed geopolitical headlines and with headwinds from the recent dollar strength.
- US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly planning to revive the Keystone XL oil pipeline, according to POLITICO.
- Spot gold mildly extended on this week’s advances above the USD 2,600/oz level with the prices unfazed by the firmer buck.
- Copper futures struggled for direction amid the mixed risk appetite in the region and a lack of macro drivers.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin extended on advances and climbed above the USD 97,000 level for the first time amid expectations of crypto-friendly policies.
- US President-elect Trump’s team is reportedly considering creating the first-ever White House crypto role, according to Bloomberg.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- Four Chinese government advisers advocate for a 2025 growth target of around 5% which is similar to this year, while one adviser presses for a growth target of above 4% and another recommends a 4.5%-5% range, while advisers suggested a higher budget deficit could mitigate the impact of expected US tariffs, according to Reuters.
- China MOFCOM official said they are planning the continuation of car trade-in incentives for next year to stabilise market expectations.
- Chinese banks are seen cutting lending rates in 2025 but may leave lending rates unchanged next month, according to analysts cited by China Securities Journal.
- Japan reportedly plans an economic package of around JPY 21.9tln, according to NHK. It was later reported that Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Aoki said the LDP-led coalition is introducing measures to reflect DPP requests as much as possible.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israel conducted raids on southern suburbs of Beirut, according to Al Jazeera.
- Israeli air strikes on several houses in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip killed and wounded dozens, according to medics.
- Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Berri and US Envoy Hochstein reached a positive conclusion to the implementation of Resolution 1701 after two weeks of contacts, while sources close to Berri said there is agreement on 80% of issues, according to Kann.
- Israeli press Yedioth Ahronoth noted that sensitive and final details of Lebanon’s ceasefire agreement have yet to be resolved, but there is agreement on about 90% of the terms, according to Al Arabiya.
- US Senate blocked measures that would have halted sales of tank rounds and joint direct attack munitions to Israel.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- BoE’s Ramsden said October CPI data was only marginally above the BoE’s forecast and one small miss on the inflation forecast does not change his assessment of the outlook. “Based on the evolving evidence a gradual approach to removing policy restraint does seem appropriate in keeping inflation close to the 2% target”. If uncertainties around inflation persistence and the wider economy were to diminish and evidence point more clearly to further disinflationary pressures “then I would consider a less gradual approach to reducing Bank Rate to be warranted.”
- ECB’s Stournaras said ECB policy, in taming inflation, has been a success and he sees inflation converging to 2% by the start of 2025. Stournaras stated the ECB may increasingly need to avoid an inflation undershoot and rates will stay restrictive for some time, while he added that downside risks to EZ growth remain.
- ECB’s Villeroy said inflation could sustainably be at 2% in early 2025 and the economy remains resilient, while stated that victory against inflation is in sight in Europe but added the balance of risks on growth and inflation is shifting to the downside. Villeroy said it is possible that US tariffs are not expected to alter significantly the inflation outlook in Europe and the degree of monetary policy restriction should continue to be reduced in which the pace must be determined by agile pragmatism, with full optionality maintained for upcoming meetings.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
NORTH KOREA/RUSSIA/UKRAINE
END
3C JAPAN
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
CHINA/
China: The Economic Stimulus That Wasn’t | The Epoch Times
China: The Economic Stimulus That Wasn’t
Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
Beijing disappointed those hoping for urgent economic stimulus, offering only a financial gimmick to delay the day of reckoning for local government finances.
11/20/2024
Commentary
After Beijing’s September economic stimulus effort fell short of expectations and the economy’s needs, Beijing promised that it would do more when the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP’s) powerful Standing Committee met.
Now, the committee, too, has disappointed. Instead of economic stimulus, it has offered only a form of financial help to local governments. If this is the best that the CCP can do, China’s economy will almost certainly continue to struggle in the new year.
China’s business and investment communities had hoped that Beijing would act more decisively once it knew the results of the American presidential election. They wanted—and needed—policies that would jolt China’s underperforming economy. Especially since Donald Trump won, making it likely that the United States would raise tariffs on Chinese goods, people saw policy help as that much more urgent.
Instead of the promised massive stimulus, the Standing Committee has delivered a plan to divert the equivalent of some $1.4 trillion raised by the central authorities for infrastructure spending to ease the immediate financial burdens on local governments.
The local government debts in question are held off the balance sheet. Also referred to as “shadow” and “hidden” debt, they are obligations local governments have incurred outside usual channels, typically to avoid the legal debt limits imposed by Beijing. Chinese Finance Minister Lan Fo’an estimates that the burden of this “shadow debt” on local governments is equivalent to some $2.0 trillion. Still, private economists have put the figure much higher, closer to between $7 trillion and $11 trillion. Whatever the precise amount, the burden of servicing this debt has weighed heavily on local governments and, in some cases, has even hampered their ability to finance public services. It is easy to see why the CCP has concerns.
But what Beijing has done is hardly an answer. Local governments have burdened themselves with debt because the underperforming Chinese economy has starved them of revenues. All Beijing is doing with this latest program is buying local governments time by extending the maturity of the loans. This practice is not uncommon among bankers worldwide. It is typically referred to with the pejorative expression: “extend and pretend,” meaning that the lender extends the time before the loan is due and pretends that the borrower somehow will find a way to pay at a future date. But without improving the economy and, hence, local government revenue streams, the problem will only recur. To confirm this judgment, Beijing had to perform this rescue twice—in 2015 and 2020.
If the CCP had bought time—again—for local governments, this action would have done nothing to help China’s economy or improve the fundamentals of local government finance. Meanwhile, the property crisis, a major reason local governments are short of funds, drags on. Chinese consumers, having lost much wealth from stock price declines and the slide in real estate values, are, at best, cautious about spending. The slow growth pattern in which the Chinese economy has fallen has dissuaded private businesses from investing in either expansion or hiring. If Beijing addresses these underlying problems, it will have less of a need to step in and help with local government finances, but this is not what the Standing Committee has done.
Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Epoch Times.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
Civilian unlawfully embedded with IDF killed by Hezbollah fire in southern Lebanon
IDF soldier killed, two wounded in same incident • Ze’ev Erlich, 70, entered Lebanon with forces without authorization from Northern Command
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 20, 2024 22:31Updated: NOVEMBER 20, 2024 23:38
An Israeli civilian who was brought into a southern Lebanese warzone was killed by enemy fire Wednesday, Binyamin Regional Council announced Wednesday evening.
The Jerusalem Post understands that the civilian was brought into Lebanon unlawfully.
The military said that civilian Ze’ev ‘Jabo’ Hanoch Erlich, 70, from Ofra, served as a major in reserve and fell in combat in southern Lebanon.
In the same incident that Erlich fell, an additional soldier was killed, and an officer of the Golani Brigade was seriously wounded. He was evacuated to the hospital for further medical care.
Erlich was a known tour guide and an archaeological expert of the Land of Israel. In the same incident, an IDF soldier was killed, and two more were wounded.
Preliminary details show an officer from one IDF battalion fighting in Lebanon brought Erlich into Lebanon despite not receiving the appropriate permit to do so from officers in the Northern Command.
Further, the initial understanding was that the embedded civilian’s presence was related to a nearby archaeological site in southern Lebanon near which Israeli forces had been operating.
Reactions to his death
Yisrael Gantz, Head of the Binyamin Regional Council, said, “We are shocked by Erlich’s passing. A man whose name was a symbol of knowledge and love of the land. He was one of the pioneers of settlement and a pillar of the Ofra settlement.
“Thousands who love this land will continue to grow up on the findings and insights he brought to the world out of great affection for the Holy Land, its heritage and the history of the Jewish people there. We share in the heavy sorrow of dear Tamar and the Erlich family and embrace the Ofra community.”
This is a developing story.
END
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah Chief Vows More Attacks On Tel Aviv While Awaiting Israel’s Response To Ceasefire Plan
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 10:10 PM
In his third major address since becoming Hezbollah’s Secretary General in the wake of Hassan Nasrallah’s death, Naim Qassem threatened to target Tel Aviv in response to recent Beirut strikes.
“We will not leave the capital under Israeli enemy attacks. When Beirut is under attack by the enemy, the response must be in Tel Aviv,” he said. The Hezbollah chief added that “The enemy must understand that things will not remain as such when Beirut is attacked.”
He laid out that Israel must pay a “heavy price” for the assassination of Hezbollah media relations chief Mohammed Afif this week, which happened in Beirut.
Drones and rockets fired from Lebanon into Tel Aviv have already begun ramping up in the past days, even though such targeting that deep into Israel remains rare.
Monday saw a Hezbollah missile strike Tel Aviv, near a shopping mall and busy area, which wounded five people and caused extensive damage.
Tehran Times reports, “An Israeli media outlet reported among the missiles that landed in Tel Aviv was a Fateh 110 missile, which is a surface-to-surface missile recognized for its significant destructive power. It is engineered to strike critical targets with pinpoint accuracy within a margin of up to ten meters.”
Currently, Biden’s Middle East envoy Amos Hochstein is going between warring capitals, seeking to finalize a US-proposed peace plan.
Hezbollah and the Lebanese government are said to be backing the ceasefire, and are awaiting Israel’s response. However, the prospect that a ceasefire will be reached soon doesn’t look promising. Below is what Secretary-General Qassem said in his speech regarding the plan:
“We got the negotiation document, we examined the document and we transferred our notes about it,” he said. This comes as Hochstein delayed his arrival in Israel as he attempts to smooth over more details of the deal.
In Qassem’s opinion, “Israel expects to get through the agreement what it did not get on the ground,” referring to the Israeli ground operations in southern Lebanon. Several attempts to reach an end to hostilities have failed, including those proposed by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron.
“In the past, we agreed to the Biden-Macron proposal on the basis of ending the war, but they killed Nasrallah,” Qassem said. “We went through a real crisis after his assassination, but after 10 days we managed to recover and heal our wounds.”
Hezbollah has been revealing an ever-more sophisticated drone arsenal…
Many details of the plan remain secret. At this moment, the skies over Lebanon are as dangerous as ever, with Israeli warplanes pounding Beirut, the Bekaa Valley, Tyre and the south, and especially the capital suburb of Dahieh.
end
ISRAEL HEZBOLLAH/THURSDAY MORNING
IAF jets carry out strikes in Beirut’s Dahiyeh – report
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 21, 2024 02:34Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2024 06:32
Israel Air Force jets carried out several strikes in Beirut’s Dahiyeh early Thursday morning, Israeli media reported.
Earlier on Thursday, IDF spokesperson in Arabic Avichay Adraee issued evacuation warnings for three buildings in Beirut’s southern suburbs in a post on X/Twitter.
A map attached to the post specified which buildings should be evacuated in the vicinity of the Haret Hreik area.
“You are located near Hezbollah facilities and interests, against which the IDF will act forcefully in the near future,” the post read.
“For your safety and the safety of your family members, you must evacuate these buildings and those adjacent to them immediately and stay away from them for a distance of no less than 500 meters,” Adraee continued.
IDF hit Hezbollah Beirut targets in overnight strikes after lull of several days
Overnight, the IDF launched airstrikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs after a lull of a few days amid the visit of US special envoy Amos Hochstein to Lebanon.
Before the strikes were carried out on the Hezbollah stronghold, the IDF issued evacuation warnings.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1859416990382739479
IDF issues evacuation order for Tyre neighborhoods ahead of strikes
The IDF has issued evacuation warnings for areas east of the coastal Lebanese city of Tyre ahead of airstrikes.
Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, publishes maps alongside the announcement, which calls on civilians in Burj el-Shemali, al-Housh, and Maashouq to immediately evacuate and head north or the Awali River.
“Hezbollah’s terror activities force the IDF to act forcefully against it in these areas, and we do not intend to harm you. Anyone who is near Hezbollah elements, facilities or weapons is putting his life in danger,” Adraee says.
END
Israel slaps sanctions on dozens of clients of Hezbollah-linked financial group
Measures applies to 24 entities depositing money with Lebanon’s Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which Defense Ministry says directly funds terror group’s activities and weapons purchases
By Stuart Winer Follow
and AgenciesToday, 9:43 am
A money changer counts notes at his shop in the Lebanese capital Beirut on September 22, 2022. (ANWAR AMRO / AFP)
Israel placed sanctions on dozens of clients of a bank closely tied to the Hezbollah terror movement in Lebanon, Defense Minister Israel Katz’s office said Thursday.
The measures were applied to 24 entities using the Al-Qard Al-Hassan Association, a nonprofit financial institution affiliated with Hezbollah.
“We will lay our hands on all those who support terror, on every front and with every means,” Katz said in a statement, describing the sanctions as part of efforts to “collapse the terror networks and hit those who provide them economic oxygen.”
The Defense Ministry did not name the targeted entities or explain how the sanctions would be applied, making it difficult to assess whether the move would have any significant real-world ramifications.
Israel and the US say Al-Qard Al-Hassan, which has over 30 outlets across Lebanon, is used by Hezbollah for money laundering and terrorism financing, assertions the group denies.
On October 21, Israeli warplanes carried out a series of airstrikes on at least 15 Al-Qard branches across Lebanon. Israel said it issued evacuation warnings ahead of the strikes. Many ordinary Lebanese keep their savings at the financial institution.
According to Defense Ministry, the sanctions are part of an ongoing financial campaign against Hezbollah and were made at the recommendation of the National Bureau for Counter-Terror Financing of Israel.
The targeted groups are clients who “deposited significant amounts with the association, which directly funds the activities of the declared terror organization Hezbollah,” the ministry said.
The deposited funds are used, among other things, to purchase weapons, provide loans, and pay wages of Hezbollah members, it said.
Defense Minister Israel Katz, left, during a visit to Northern Command with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi on November 13, 2024. (X video screenshot: used in accordance with Clause 27a of the Copyright Law)
The ministry said the sanctions program, led by the counter-terror financing bureau in cooperation with the Military Intelligence Directorate and other security bodies, was part of a “broad economic campaign to damage and thwart the finance routes of terror groups.”
The sanctions will assist in “locating and foiling international financial activities of these entities and the bodies associated with them,” said bureau chief Paul Landes.
Al-Qard al-Hassan is officially a nonprofit charity institution operating outside the Lebanese financial system and one of the tools with which Hezbollah entrenches its support among the country’s Shiite population.
In addition to its military wing, Hezbollah has branches that run schools, hospitals and low-price grocery stores, as well as Al-Qard al-Hassan, from which hundreds of thousands of its supporters benefit.
The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Al-Qard al-Hassan since 2007, saying it is “used by Hezbollah as a cover” to manage the militant group’s financial activities “and gain access to the international financial system.”
Founded four decades ago, soon after Hezbollah’s inception, the association, whose name in Arabic means “the benevolent loan,” offers interest-free loans and allows people to deposit gold as collateral in return for the credit, enabling them to pay for school fees and weddings, buy a car or open a small business. People can also open savings accounts.
Israel and Hezbollah have been fighting since last October when the Iran-backed terror group began attacking across the Israeli-Lebanon border, saying it was supporting Gaza amid the ongoing war against the Hamas terror group there.
The fighting escalated after months of near-daily rocket and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israel’s north that forced the evacuation of some 60,000 residents. Israel increased its airstrikes against Hezbollah in September and has also engaged in a limited ground operation aimed at pushing the terror group away from the border area and restoring security to the region.
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/OPINION
Hezbollah is still trying to manage contained war with Israel – analysis
Hezbollah’s new leader, Naim Qassem, signals readiness for a long conflict, threatening Tel Aviv in response to Israeli strikes.
By SETH J. FRANTZMANNOVEMBER 21, 2024 09:37Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2024 09:45
Hezbollah’s new Secretary-General, Naim Qassem, spoke on Wednesday and said that Hezbollah would target Tel Aviv in response to Israel’s elimination of Hezbollah spokesperson Mohammed Afif.
Hezbollah already targeted Tel Aviv in the wake of the killing of Afif on November 17. However, the comments by Qassem indicate that Hezbollah is still weighing a response to the Israeli attack in Beirut that eliminated the Hezbollah chief propagandist.
Qassem’s comments about Israel needing to await a “response” to the attack indicate that the new leader of Hezbollah is still seeking to manage the war with Israel. Qassem replaced Hashem Safieddine, who was believed to be the likely successor to Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah was killed in September, and Safieddine was killed in October. Qassem praised Safieddine in his speech on Wednesday.
Hezbollah is trying to show that it is prepared for a long war with Israel and that, despite losses, it is not on the ropes. Reports in Israel have portrayed Hezbollah as suffering major losses, including 80 percent of its rocket arsenal.
Hezbollah has also lost more than 2,250 of its operatives in fighting in southern Lebanon, according to IDF estimates. This is an addition to another 500 killed before Operation Northern Arrows began on September 23. In addition, Hezbollah has lost dozens of men in airstrikes in Beirut and the Bekaa Valley.
Qassem has vowed that Hezbollah will not leave Beirut and that it will continue to make Israel “pay” for the strikes on those like Afif. “He mentioned that while the Israeli strikes have been severe, Hezbollah possesses a strong and capable cadre. After two months of an all-out Israeli war on Lebanon, the Resistance has demonstrated remarkable resilience, he added,” Iran’s state media IRNA noted.
He said Hezbollah would never be defeated and was prepared for a long battle. He is also prepared for a potential ceasefire. “We have negotiated on two conditions: a complete and comprehensive cessation of aggression and the preservation of Lebanese sovereignty,” he said.
Not backing down
Hezbollah vows to continue the fight. “We will remain on the battlefield and fight, regardless of how high the costs may rise; of course, the cost to the enemy will also be significant. When the enemy fails to achieve its goals, it means we have won.”
What is the point of these statements? First, Qassem is portraying Hezbollah as continuing to manage the war. He wants to show that it is not on the ropes and that it can choose how and when to respond. It doesn’t face an urgent crisis. On the one hand, this could be propaganda. On the other hand, it’s important to consider that throughout the conflict, Hezbollah has sought to create an “equation” in its war.
This means that every time Israel strikes a certain place, Hezbollah has weighed how to respond in kind. Before September 23, Hezbollah usually targeted areas close to the border. It only extended its rocket fire when Israel carried out airstrikes deeper inside Lebanon.
After September 23, one might think that Hezbollah would take the gloves off. The estimate of Hezbollah’s abilities prior to September 23 was that it would fire thousands of rockets a day at Israel. This threat has never materialized.
One could conclude that Hezbollah never had this capability to begin with. It had 150,000 rockets but didn’t have the launchers capable of launching thousands a day. One could also conclude that the losses it suffered prevented it from this high rate of fire. A third reading could be that Hezbollah sought to husband its resources and not go all-in with attacks. Hezbollah may have never shifted to a total war footing.
One would think that suffering thousands of losses would force Hezbollah’s hand. However, the group closely coordinates with Iran. Iran is under the impression that a long, slow war against Israel is preferable to a short conflict. Iran wants the Houthis, Hezbollah, Iraqi militias, Hamas in Gaza, and groups in the West Bank to fight Israel until Israel is exhausted slowly.
Towards this end, Hezbollah has likely been told that it should continue attacks and continue fighting but be ready to slowly withdraw from villages close to the Israeli border and prepare ambushes.
Hezbollah is still firing rockets from as close as six miles or ten kilometers to the Israeli border, meaning it continues to control the third line of villages near the border. Hezbollah continues to fire between 50-120 rockets a day at Israel. This shows Hezbollah wants to keep up a regular amount of fire every day, not too much and not too little. Qassem’s speech was about maintaining this managed conflict against Israel.
END
ISRAEL//HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
Empowered women: Female IDF trailblazers mark historic achievements in defense – editorial
Religious women join IDF combat units, breaking barriers and stereotypes.
By JPOST EDITORIALNOVEMBER 21, 2024 05:58
On a chilly morning earlier this week, a team of female IDF soldiers gathered their gear and prepared to embark on a mission into southern Lebanon. Among them was Cpl. Tehila, 21, who adjusted her pack—laden with equipment that weighed nearly half her body weight—and exchanged determined glances with her comrades. For the first time in Israel’s history, women combat soldiers were about to cross the border into enemy territory. Their task was as monumental as it was dangerous: to gather intelligence, pinpoint Hezbollah positions, and direct fire to protect Israel’s northern communities.
Such scenes are becoming more common in the IDF, where women are not just breaking barriers but leading in roles traditionally dominated by men. Israel’s military has consistently demonstrated its commitment to equality, offering women meaningful opportunities to serve and contribute, even in combat positions. In a region dominated by radical ideologies that suppress women’s rights, the IDF’s pioneering approach sets it apart—not just from its neighbors but from many Western democracies.
This week, two groundbreaking events underscored the IDF’s leadership in empowering women. The first was the announcement of Israel’s first religious women-only combat unit, to be deployed within the Combat Intelligence Corps. As reported by The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday, this initiative addresses the surge of religious women eager to serve in the IDF, including 350 who joined combat roles in the aftermath of October 7. Led by Ohr Torah Stone, the unit will provide a supportive framework for religious women, complete with spiritual and halachic guidance from Rabbanit Hila Naor, marking a historic first in the IDF.
Rabbi Dr. Kenneth Brander, President of Ohr Torah Stone, celebrated this milestone, saying, “At a time when attention often shifts to those who choose not to serve, we are witnessing a rise in the number of religious women eager to join in defending Israel in this existential war.” For 18-year-old recruit Rina Mays from Ramat Beit Shemesh, this opportunity represents both a personal and collective mission: “I’ve always dreamed of contributing to my country in a meaningful way… this unit felt like the right path for me.”
On Monday, November 18, The Jerusalem Post reported another momentous achievement. Female combat soldiers from the Ayit Battalion carried out an operational mission in southern Lebanon, marking the first time women had participated in such an endeavor. Their work involved intelligence gathering, pinpointing anti-tank missile sites, and guiding fire against Hezbollah positions, showcasing their operational effectiveness in high-stakes scenarios.
Dismantling sexist notions
Cpl. Shani, 20, described the mission’s challenges: “We walked about 1.5 kilometers into Lebanon, established a position in the field, maintained camouflage, and began intelligence collection. Operationally, we entered areas untouched by Israeli forces since the Second Lebanon War.” These missions not only reaffirm the IDF’s trust in its female soldiers but also dismantle outdated notions about women’s roles in the military.
The IDF’s achievements in integrating women into combat roles are unparalleled. While many Western nations celebrate symbolic strides in gender equality, Israel delivers measurable results. Female soldiers are not relegated to token roles; they are actively shaping Israel’s defense strategies, often in some of the most dangerous arenas.
This commitment is particularly striking in a region where many societies deny women basic rights, let alone the opportunity to serve in their country’s defense. Israel’s example highlights the values it shares with other Western democracies: equality, freedom, and opportunity. Yet, these achievements are often overlooked or misunderstood by the international community.
Israel’s women in combat are more than soldiers—they are trailblazers, breaking barriers and challenging stereotypes while defending their nation. Their contributions reflect not only their own courage and determination but also the broader resilience of Israeli society.
As Cpl. Tehila put it, “Girls joining combat units are often told they won’t get meaningful missions, but this proves otherwise. If you push yourself and excel, incredible opportunities await.” Her words are a reminder that Israel’s fight is not just against external threats but also against outdated perceptions.
The world should recognize Israel’s unique position as a Western democracy in a challenging region and celebrate the extraordinary contributions of its female soldiers. By empowering women in its military, Israel continues to lead the way in demonstrating that equality and strength go hand in hand.
END
ISRAEL HAMAS
Dozens killed in Israeli air strikes on several houses in Beit lahiya, northern Gaza – report
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 21, 2024 01:21
Dozens were killed and wounded in Israeli air strikes on several houses in Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip, medics told Reuters early on Thursday.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF’s Kfir Brigade dismantles over 100 Hamas targets in multi-front Gaza ops.
Brigade Commander Col. Yaniv Barot described the ongoing operations as the most important task they’ll do in their lifetimes.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 21, 2024 08:31Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2024 08:32
The Kfir Brigade’s combat team has been operating under Division 162 in the Jabalya and Beit Lahiya areas for the past two weeks, neutralizing dozens of terrorists and dismantling over 100 terror infrastructures, the IDF reported on Thursday.
According to the brigade’s commander, Colonel Yaniv Barot, “For over a year, the brigade has been engaged in intense combat across multiple fronts simultaneously: the West Bank, Lebanon, and Gaza.” He described the ongoing operations as the most important task they’ll do in their lifetimes “in the most just war since the founding of the [Jewish] state.”
He further emphasized the brigade’s efforts to “neutralize terrorists, destroy terror infrastructures, and remove additional weapons daily that will no longer harm the citizens of Israel.”
Col. Barot addressed his troops, acknowledging their losses. “I see in your eyes the pain over comrades who have fallen, our brothers, alongside the spark and determination to fight for our home,” he said.
He outlined the brigade’s mission objectives: “We are fighting to bring the hostages back home, return the residents of the Gaza envelope to their homes, and provide them the security that the IDF is here, protecting them. We are here and will continue to fight until the mission is complete.”
Nahshon battalion leads Gaza fight
Within this broader effort, the Nahshon Battalion has played a leading role in operations in Jabalya and Beit Lahiya. Major Israel Benafraj, the battalion’s deputy commander, noted, “The battalion is leading the fight, having eliminated dozens of terrorists and destroyed dozens of terror infrastructures.”
He described the nature of the confrontations: “The forces encounter terrorists in face-to-face encounters and eliminate them up close, from the sea, and from the air.”
Benafraj also emphasized the brigades continued emphasizing the brigade’s commitment to fighting against the terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip “until the mission is accomplished.”
END
ISRAEL.HAMAS/.OPINION
Post-war Gaza: Can Hamas maintain its grip amid destruction? – opinion
Hamas’s fate in post-war Gaza hinges on military outcomes and governance plans.
By SALEM ALKETBINOVEMBER 21, 2024 01:55
Many historical examples demonstrate that terror groups with specific ideological foundations undergo life cycles, often marked by critical turning points or crises. Examples include the disintegration of al-Qaeda and Daesh, which fractured into decentralized networks across multiple regions without unified command structures, though they retain their original names for various purposes.
A shared factor in the fragmentation of such groups is exposure to severe military setbacks or the loss of key leaders. This raises questions about the potential disintegration of the Hamas terror group following the ongoing war in Gaza.
Speculation about Hamas’s collapse intensified with the absence of unified leadership after the death of Yahya Sinwar and the movement’s reliance on a joint leadership council.
The war’s end is likely to trigger extensive reevaluation, as it may be difficult for Hamas to continue, either due to the destruction of its military and organizational infrastructure or due to regional and international plans to completely exclude it from governing Gaza.
While some reports suggest Hamas has resumed activities in northern Gaza under local backing, this does not guarantee the movement’s sustainability. The current situation is developing and complex. With no viable governance alternative, Hamas’s presence may act as a refuge for residents – driven by fear or inability to resist.
Hamas needs an alternative to remain in power
The lack of a unified post-war governance framework could facilitate Hamas’s gradual reemergence. Ultimately, the movement’s survival hinges on the availability of an institutional alternative to manage Gaza, particularly to ensure law and order amid utter disorder.
Hamas’s cohesion or collapse will depend on how the current conflict with Israel concludes. If Israel does not deliver a decisive defeat, Hamas could remain cohesive, interpreting its survival as a symbolic victory, even from a propaganda angle.
Another important factor will be the stance of other Palestinian factions, particularly with pressures on the Palestinian Authority for reforms and anti-corruption measures. The Palestinian Authority’s persistence in its current state encourages the formation of parallel power structures or the emergence of new, extremist movements under different names.
Furthermore, local perspectives on recent events may not favor Hamas, given the widespread destruction across Gaza, which the movement cannot adequately address. Regional or international bodies are unlikely to engage in reconstruction efforts while Hamas holds power, either as the main ruler or a partner in governance.
Internal pressures could push toward the movement’s fragmentation or an attempt to avoid accountability, potentially giving rise to splinter groups with similar ideologies.
The situation could mirror the Afghan Taliban’s resilience against US forces, where the Taliban maintained cohesion due to the US military’s inability to secure a decisive defeat.
This contrasts with Daesh and al-Qaeda, which, following clear military defeats, dispersed across various regions. Unlike Osama bin Laden’s death, which had a profound impact on al-Qaeda, the loss of Sinwar – a figure in a chain of leaders targeted by Israel – has not led to Hamas’s collapse.
Hamas’s future appears tied to two critical factors: first, the outcomes of military operations and the movement’s human and material losses; and second, the nature of post-war governance and the existence of a competent alternative.
This replacement must manage security, discipline, and daily life in Gaza more effectively than Hamas, potentially forcing the group into retreat and possibly exposing internal conflicts previously overshadowed by the ongoing military crisis.
The writer is a United Arab Emirates political analyst and former Federal National Council candidate.
END
ISRAEL/HAMAS/GAZA/HEZBOLLAH
Israel at war: What happened on day 411?
802 IDF soldiers have died since October 7 • Hezbollah fires fewer rockets
By YONAH JEREMY BOB, JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 21, 2024 03:41Updated: NOVEMBER 21, 2024 03:44
“A military government in Gaza is not part of the goals of the war, but a dangerous and irresponsible political act,” former defense minister Yoav Gallant said Wednesday.
Two soldiers were killed in fighting on Tuesday, the 800th and 801th to die in the Israel-Hamas War, the IDF reported.
Gallant made his remarks in a post on X/Twitter in response to cabinet discussions about distributing food to Palestinians in Gaza by private companies under military security.
The Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT) on Wednesday said humanitarian aid was delivered to Gaza through eight Jordanian Air Force helicopters through crossing 147.
The delivery comprised more than 700 packages that included “hygiene and sanitation supplies, food, baby formula, and medical equipment, and 30 different types of medications,” COGAT said, adding that the overall weight of the humanitarian aid delivered was more than 7,200 kg.
The Kissufim crossing was opened for the first time on Wednesday for the purpose of transferring aid to Gaza’s civilian population, KAN News reported.
“These are empty words for the beginning of a military government,” Gallant said. “The price will be paid by the blood of the soldiers, and Israel will pay in its own poor order of priorities that will lead to neglecting more important security tasks.
“Everything depends on the preparation ahead of time of an alternative entity that will replace the IDF in Gaza. Otherwise, we are on the way to a military government, and we will all pay the price.”
National Unity chairman Benny Gantz said: “Israeli security control of Gaza – necessary. Israeli rule, with our soldiers handling sewage and trash – a disaster.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had not responded publicly by press time. He has never publicly endorsed Israeli civil control of Gaza, but he has prevented the Palestinian Authority – under the supervision of other Arab countries and the US – from taking civilian control.
Netanyahu has suggested that Arab countries and the US assume responsibility for Gaza, but none of those parties are willing to without the PA being at least partially involved.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich criticized Gallant’s statements, saying the conceptual framework the former defense minister and the defense establishment espoused had led to weakness and worse results during the war.
Their refusal to seize territory and limiting the IDF to fighting Hamas and then retreating is what has caused much of the delay in defeating Hamas as a political entity, he said.
Much of the world has stridently opposed any Israeli civilian control in Gaza even at an incremental level, but some coalition members believe the incoming Trump administration may be more open to such ideas.
Gallant was fired by Netanyahu in early November and was replaced by foreign minister Israel Katz.
Netanyahu and Gallant have clashed over the issue of the military exemption of haredi (ultra-Orthodox) men and of Netanyahu’s unwillingness to cut a hostage deal with Hamas in exchange for a Gaza withdrawal.
Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Roi Sasson, from the Nahshon Battalion in the Kfir Brigade, was killed in combat in the northern Gaza Strip on Tuesday, the IDF reported Wednesday.
Sasson, 21, was from Mevaseret Zion. His funeral was held in the afternoon at the Mount Herzl Military Cemetery in Jerusalem.
In the same incident, the commander of the Nahshon Battalion, Lt.-Col. Yoel Glickman, was severely wounded, the IDF said.
Sasson was the third soldier from the Kfir Brigade to fall in combat in the Gaza Strip in recent days.
According to the IDF’s tally, the death of Sasson raised the total of soldiers killed on or since the October 7 massacre to 800. Including other security services, the number is more than 900.
Late Wednesday night, the IDF said Sgt.-Maj. (res.) Eitan Ben Ami had died in combat in southern Lebanon.
Ben Ami, 22, from Jerusalem, was in the Maglan Reservist Unit of the Commando Brigade.
The IAF killed the commanders of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile and operations unit, the IDF reported Wednesday. They were responsible for terrorist attacks against Israelis, including missile strikes on civilian communities in the Western Galilee and the coast, it said.
Additionally, while operating in southern Lebanon, Israeli forces located weapons storage facilities and struck terrorist command centers both on the ground and in the air, the IDF said.
The IAF also struck more than 100 terrorist targets in Lebanon, including launchers, weapons storage facilities, command centers, and military structures over the past day, it said.
The announcement came after OC Northern Command Maj.-Gen. Ori Gordin conducted a situational assessment in southern Lebanon.
During the assessment, commanders discussed IDF actions on the ground and creating the necessary conditions for the safe return of northern residents to their homes. They expressed appreciation for the efforts of both reservists and soldiers in active service for continued operations, the IDF said.
“We are in the middle of an offensive in this area,” Gordin said. “There have been very good achievements so far, and you have played a big role in them.”
The IDF has dramatically reduced Hezbollah’s firepower, he said, adding: “It begins with our firepower targeting the organization’s firepower capabilities, which have been dramatically reduced.”
Regarding soldiers and reservists who have served in Lebanon, Gordin said: “Every one of you has set aside something important – whether it be your wedding date, the birth of your children, an exam at school, or a major project at work. All these things are deeply meaningful to all of you, and you’ve put them aside.
“This is just one example of your dedication, your pursuit of values, and the essence of Israeli society, which is so vital. For this, once again, my deep appreciation. And we must continuously express our gratitude to everyone involved.”
Hezbollah fires fewer rockets
On Wednesday, Hezbollah fired at least 25 rockets at Israel, with a direct hit on a preschool building in Acre. The children had left some time before it was hit.
Although there were multiple rounds of air-raid sirens, no casualties were reported on Wednesday.
As of press time, the number of rockets fired by Hezbollah was much lower than it has been in recent days.
end
ISRAEL./HEZBOLLAH/the framework of the ceasefire:
Cost of ceasefire with Hezbollah: Senior defense official lays out terms for Lebanon truce
The terms will likely include a US letter of guarantees to Israel and American supervision of UNIFIL, among other protections.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 21, 2024 16:03
A ceasefire with Hezbollah and Lebanon will most likely include a phased 60 day withdrawal by the IDF from southern Lebanon, with no leftover security perimeter, a senior defense source said on Thursday.
Additional likely ceasefire terms listed off by the source included: a US side letter of guarantees to Israel and American supervision of UNIFIL and empowering ot the Lebanese army enough to truly take and keep control of southern Lebanon from Hezbollah.
All of these terms would be in addition to Hezbollah’s already accepting a withdrawal of its own forces to points North of the Litani River and the US, France, and others committing to help guarantee that Hezbollah will be unable to resupply itself with rockets and other weapons from land, air, or sea.
More specifically, the defense official said that the US letter, while it will not likely be made public, will delineate between different scenarios: where Israel is entitled to act against Hezbollah violations without checking in with any third party and in what situations would it need to first complain to an international body before acting.
For example, the official said that the IDF and security forces could act immediately against any immediate threat, but would need to first lodge a complaint if it noticed Hezbollah starting the process in southern Lebanon of manufacturing new rockets, digging a new tunnel, or organizing some other new military site – and in some cases even North of the Litani River, though this element is more ambiguous.
Israel is expected to receive in the deal with Hezbollah-Lebanon or in the side deal with the US, the right to continue to collect intelligence on threats within Lebanon from the air, stated the source.
In addition, though the Lebanese military, with additional help from the US and others, is expected to take over southern Lebanon from the IDF and Hezbollah, UNIFIL will remain in the picture in some kind of limited coordination capacity.
The role of UNIFIL
While generally Israel views UNIFIL as somewhat useless in stopping Hezbollah, its presence can still add to stability factors in the area, along with more robust guarantees from the IDF’s own actions and the Lebanese army, said the defense official.
While the exact parameters of the staged 60-day IDF withdrawal may still be up for debate, noted the defense official, the idea would be that the splitting into stages would allow Israel to evaluate using benchmarks at multiple points whether Hezbollah was complying with the agreement.
Still, the source said the most important item was that Israel will act to enforce the agreement regardless of what the deal itself says.
In contrast to 2006, where Israel felt that it was lucky in some ways to get any improved deal on paper, which also meant it was somewhat fearful about enforcing the deal, the defense source said that now the IDF feels that it is in the driver’s seat, and that added leverage, will likely both discourage Hezbollah from near-term violations of the deal, as well as leave the IDF more ready to enforce it.
Broadly speaking, this means that Israel views a ceasefire as having three components: 1) its’ right to attack Hezbollah when it violates the deal without checking with anyone; 2) side guarantees from the US; and 3) the deal itself.
The defense official acknowledged that unarmed Hezbollah fighters could return to villages in southern Lebanon like Kfar Kilah, and that there could be complex circumstances where it might be harder to evaluate whether they were acting militarily or not.
But generally the source appeared confident that Israeli defense and intelligence activities would be able to manage such challenges.
ISRAEL/GAZA
ISRAEL/GAZA/HAMAS
END
ISRAEL/WESTBANK/JENIN
END
ISRAEL //SYRIA
Rare Israeli Attack On Syria’s Palmyra Launched From US-Controlled Airspace
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 05:20 PM
Huge Israeli airstrikes rocked the outskirts of the central Syrian city of Palmyra on Wednesday, with regional reports saying the attacks were launched by Israeli jets utilizing US-controlled airspace over Al-Tanf military base in eastern Syria.
“Israeli warplanes launched a number of missiles from the airspace of the [US] base in the Al-Tanf area on the Syrian–Iraqi–Jordanian border, in the far southeastern countryside of Homs, targeting the vicinity of the city of Palmyra,” Sputnik’s correspondent reported.
Israeli attacks on Palmyra are rare, if not unheard of, given how deep into central Syria and the eastern desert the town lies. Al-Tanf base is located a little over 200km from Palmyra. The border base has been occupied by US forces for many years now.
Syrian state SANA has cited a large casualty count, reporting at least 36 dead and over 50 wounded. SANA reports, “At approximately 1:30 p.m. today, the Israeli enemy launched an air attack from the direction of al-Tanf area, targeting a number of buildings in Palmyra City in the Syrian Desert, led to the martyrdom of 36 people, the injury of more than 50 others, and significant material damage to the buildings and the surrounding area.”
Palmyra before the war attracted tourists from across the globe as it is known for its ancient Roman ruins, and is a UNESCO World Heritage site.
The iconic ruins and temples were partially damaged when the remote outpost was overrun by the Islamic State terror group in 2015, and many Syrian Army personnel were killed trying to defend it.
Syrian government forces with the help of Russian aerial support were able to get Palmyra back from ISIS by March 2016.
Russia and Syria have long accused American forces based out of Al-Tanf of training terrorists and facilitating their movements, in order to keep up pressure on Damascus.
As for Israel, recent months have seen a clear uptick in air raids on Syria, but these strikes on Palmyra appear to be the single deadliest this year.
Israel typically describes its operations as targeting ‘Iranian assets’; however, the Syrian government is saying that many among its territorial defense units as well as civilians were killed.
IRAN
end
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
Seymour Hersh…
https://trendsinthenews.substack.com/p/israel-will-annex-the-west-bank-in?utm_medium=email
Israel Will Annex the West Bank in Coming Weeks: Seymour Hersh
Donald Trump has named a Cabinet that could have been hand-picked by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Nov 20, 2024
Israel will formally annex the West Bank in the “very near future – perhaps in two weeks” to kill any talk of a two-state solution and “convince some in the skeptical Arab world to reconsider financing the planned reconstruction of Gaza,” Seymour Hersh, the Pulitzer-prize winning journalist posted on his Substack, citing a “well-informed Washington official.”
Top Israeli officials have celebrated Donald Trump’s election in the U.S. and see their best possibility ever in annexing the occupied West Bank, which has long been the goal of the Israeli government.
Trump, who billed himself during the entire campaign as a savior for Israel, has compiled a Cabinet and staff filled with pro-Israel religious extremists.
He named Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, as his ambassador to Israel. Huckabee, a former pastor, once told an Israeli news outlet that annexing the West Bank is possible, but the policy hasn’t been set.
He has also said Israel has a “title deed” over all its land that is “God-given,” and that “No American president should ever put the pressure on Israel to give up land that God gave them the title deed to.”
Huckabee has also spoken out against any call for a two-state solution.
“I consider [the two-state solution] no solution whatsoever,” he told the Republican Jewish Coalition in Washington in 2015. He continued, “The United States needs to finally make a definitive statement … [that] we know who our peace partner in the Middle East is, and it is Israel.”
He also said there is no such thing as an occupation.
“There is no such thing as settlements…they’re communities, they’re neighborhoods, they’re cities. There is no such thing as an occupation,” he said.
The International Court of Justice ruled last month that Israel’s continued occupation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is a “de facto annexation” enforced through “systemic discrimination, segregation, and apartheid.”
The court called on Israel to mandate the “evacuation of all settlers from existing settlements and the dismantling of the parts of the wall constructed by Israel that are situated in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, as well as allowing all Palestinians displaced during the occupation to return to their original place of residence.”
Netanyahu responded to the ruling, stating that the “Jewish people are not occupiers in their own land, including in our eternal capital Jerusalem nor in Judea and Samaria, our historical homeland.”
Bezalel Smotrich, the Israeli finance minister and top settler (land-stealer), told reporters that Trump’s win opens the door for a lot of possibilities.
“2025 [is] the year of sovereignty in ‘Judea and Samaria’,” referencing the West Bank. “I have instructed the Settlement Division in the Ministry of Defense and the Civil Administration to begin professional and comprehensive work to prepare the necessary infrastructure for applying sovereignty.”
Trump also tapped Fox News’ weekend host Pete Hegseth, a Christian fundamentalist, to head the Defense Department; Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., to head the State Department; and Steve Witkoff, an American-Jewish real estate mogul, who will take the role as Middle East envoy.
“The Israeli right is thinking of moving Independence Day to November 13,” Nadav Shtrauchler, a political strategist who has worked with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, told the Financial Times. “They could not have dreamt of appointments like these… it’s a major blessing.”
Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, told Israeli Army Radio that the appointments project “strength, determination, and this is a good thing for the U.S. but also good for us.”
“This doesn’t mean that everything we want they’ll say yes, but I think the attitude will be that of someone who understands,” he said.
Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign policy chief, criticized Smotrich’s comments and said they appear to be a “clear step towards illegal annexation,” according to the Financial Times.
Even Israel’s closest allies in the region like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have expressed doubts about normalization if Israel rejects a two-state solution in favor of a land grab.
The WSJ, citing the Saudi Foreign Ministry, noted that Riyad said any statements about annexing the West Bank “undermines peace efforts.”
Matt Brooks, the chief executive of the Republican Jewish Coalition, called Trump’s picks for his Cabinet—including Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., for secretary of state, “a true dream team for those who care about a strong, vibrant, unshakable U.S.-Israel relationship,” according to The New York Times.
Layla Elabed, a founder of Uncommitted, a group that abandoned Kamala Harris over the Biden administration’s support for genocide, told the paper that Trump made overtures to the Arab community in the U.S., but it seems as though it was just an act.
“Trump’s team lied to a community in anger and despair? Isn’t that his whole thing?” she asked.
END
Insane!
(Jerusalem Post/opinion)
‘A date that will live in infamy:’ former diplomat abhors ‘clueless’ ICC warrants – interview
Former Israeli diplomat and former foreign ministry official, Yigal Palmor, told the Post that the warrants will have significant implications for international justice.
By MATHILDA HELLERNOVEMBER 21, 2024 17:04
The ICC’s issuance of arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant is a “date that will live in infamy,” former Israeli diplomat and former foreign ministry official, Yigal Palmor, told the Jerusalem Post on Thursday.
While he said that it was “too early to speak of the implications with certainty,” Palmor told the Post that the impact would be extensive.
“It seems that not only has the ICC issued arrest warrants, in its communiqué it has also determined guilt.”
“The guilt of Netanyahu and Gallant is presented as an established fact,” Palmor added.
The ICC’s statement writes that “the Chamber found reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Netanyahu [and] Mr Gallant each bear criminal responsibility for the following crimes as co-perpetrators for committing the acts jointly with others: the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”
Palmor told the Post that with such an establishment of guilt, there is no need for any legal process.
“The ICC is not seeking to arrest suspects for their involvement in alleged crimes, it has determined that the crimes have been committed, and that they were committed by these specific individuals.”
He added that the warrants cross a line that was “very clear and agreed upon since day one: the line that separates democratic regimes – where the justice system is more or less independent – and the non-democratic regimes – where the justice system is dependent on international intervention.”
Of the list of around 70 people indicted by the ICC, most of them are from countries such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda, Sudan, Libya, and Afghanistan. Russian President Vladimir Putin also has an arrest warrant out against him, as well as several other Russian generals.
According to the Freedom House ratings, none of these countries are democratic.
Israel, however, is rated 74/100 on the democratic scale, and is classed as “free.”
“This line was very, very clear,” Palmor said. “Now they have erased that line all together.”
He explained that given the erasure of this clear boundary, “everything is permitted now.”
The ruling means everyone could now sue everyone else. “If you dislike the principles of a certain government, you are now permitted to intervene from the outside, essentially trespassing a country’s sovereignty,” he said.
“The independence of a local justice system will count for nothing.”
Palmor added that the fact that Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently standing trial in his own country, for alleged crimes, shows that the Israeli justice system works, and does not need external intervention.
The “thoughtless, clueless” decision has disrupted the whole system of international justice, Palmor stated, “destroying and obliterating the founding principles of the ICC.”
An eliminated Hamas chief made the list
Added to this is the ridiculousness of the arrest warrant against Mohammed Deif, Palmor continued, who Israel and Hamas have both confirmed is dead.
Hamas sources admitted to the death of Mohammed Deif, the former head of the terror organization’s military wing, earlier this month in the Arabic newspaper Asharq Al-Awsat.
“By trying to show balance, it ridiculed them even more,” Palmor added.
While countries can pull out of the Rome Statute (and have, such as the Philippines and South Africa in the past), those party to the Statute must follow the ruling of the ICC.
“As long as it is in the interest of certain countries to make it seem like the international justice system works, they won’t say anything about the hypocrisy of the ruling,” Palmor told the Post.
He added that he wanted to make it clear he was not accusing the ICC of antisemitism, but simply that “they are living in a bubble and they don’t think about the larger consequences of what they have just done.”
Palmor added that the warrants will produce a “strong backwind to all movements who are seeking to delegitimize, criminalize and marginalize Israel in general.”
Movements such as the BDS movement can now use the warrants as evidence for their campaigns against Israel.
“This is a date that will live in infamy,” he concluded.
end
UN/HAMAS/HEZBOLLAH
Secret meeting? with terrorists? they must stop funding this criminal organization (UN)
(Jerusalem Post)
‘We are one’, UNWRA officials told Hamas, PIJ in secret Lebanon meeting
The meeting held in 2017 showed UNRWA’s Pierre Krahenbuhl cordially meeting up with leaders in different Palestinian terror organizations, asking them to keep the meeting secret.
By OHAD MERLINNOVEMBER 21, 2024 15:48
Former UNRWA commissioner general Pierre Krahenbuhl met with leaders of designated Palestinian terrorist organizations during his term, assuring them that “we are one” and “no one can separate us,” as published on a UN Watch expose.
According to the expose, the meeting took place in Beirut in February 2017, with participants including, in addition to Krahenbuhl and UNRWA Chief in Lebanon Hakam Shawan, Ali Baraka from Hamas, Abu Imad Al-Rifai from the Islamic Jihad (PIJ) and Salah Al-Youssef from the PFLP, as well as other representatives from different Palestinian factions such as the DFLP, the PFLP – Central Command, and Fatah Al-Intifada.
Hamas leader Ali Baraka, who oversaw the terror organizaiton’s foreign relations with the regimes in Tehran and Syria, was recently designated by the US for his role in Hamas. Likewise, Abu Imad al-Rifai, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s leader from Lebanon, had previously boasted about dispatching suicide bombers to Baghdad to target American and British military personnel.
Meetings held secretly
Strikingly, Krahenbuhl appeared to have been completely aware that such meetings were problematic, as according to UN Watch’s expose, he warned those present to maintain their discussions out of the public sphere, so as to avoid a “challenge” to their “credibility”, as well as “lead to a loss between donor countries and UNRWA, which might result in reduced or even halted funding.”
During these clandestine discussions, Krahenbuhl explicitly emphasized a “spirit of partnership” with those present in the room, and encouraged them to challenge UNRWA’s decisions privately, promising potential modifications or complete reversals of decisions. In his own words, Krahenbuhl advocated for a mutual partnership, inviting terrorist representatives to critique UNRWA’s decisions freely. He suggested they could meet “a thousand times” to discuss concerns, with the potential to alter or completely rescind existing policies.
“Your cooperation with us in security matters and your commitment to not closing UNRWA institutions, facilities, schools, or offices also completes this partnership,” said the UNRWA official to the leaders of Palestinian terrorist organizations, concluding by saying “If we can achieve this, it means we are united, and no one can separate us.”
These documents provide a stark insight into the complex and controversial interactions between UNRWA leadership and organizations designated as terrorist groups by multiple international entities.
UN Watch Executive Director, Hillel Neuer, reminded that Hamas official in Lebanon Ali Baraka, who was present at the meeting with Krahnbuhl, regularly met with UNRWA regional directors, some of which saluted him for Hamas’s anniversary.
UNRWA’s connections with Hamas were put under scrutiny since the October 7th Massacre, as multiple UNRWA staff were seen participating in the massacre itself, playing active roles in Hamas’s militia Al-Qassam, and instructing antisemitic and terror lauding material in schools. An UNRWA teacher was also among organizers of anti-Israel protests in the Netherlands while acting as leader of a Hamas affiliated organization in the country.
TURKEY/HOUTHIS
Erdogan angry that the Houthis got confused and attacked a Turkish cargo ship in the Red Sea
(Reuters)
Turkey condemns Houthi attack on Turkish owned cargo ship
By REUTERSNOVEMBER 20, 2024 23:24
Turkey’s foreign ministry on Wednesday condemned a missile attack on the Panama-flagged and Turkish-owned cargo ship Anadolu S while sailing off the coast of Yemen by Iran-aligned Houthis.
In a statement, the Turkish foreign ministry said that necessary initiatives are being taken to prevent the recurrence of a similar incident.
A military spokesman for Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Tuesday they had launched a missile attack on a vessel in the Red Sea without specifying when.
END
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Message sent loud and clear…
Russia Fires ICBM Into Ukraine For First Time, Kiev Confirms
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 07:00 AM
Ukraine’s Air Force Command says that Russia has, for the first time in the multi-year war, launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This unprecedented escalation follows Ukraine’s recent use of US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets deep within Russia. The use of an ICBM is Russia demonstrating its greater capabilities in response to Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes.
A senior Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called “RS-26 Rubezh” that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital.
Although RS-26 Rubezh can be used to deliver a thermonuclear warhead or an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Thursday morning’s attack on the Dnipro region was non-nuclear, instead some sort of conventional warhead.
“Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, wrote on X.
“But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal,” Podvig added.
And yes, it does.
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNN that the ICBM strike on Ukraine is a “message” to Kyiv’s Western backers. He emphasized that this week’s escalations, including the Biden-Harris administration greenlighting Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets in Russia, have likely prompted this escalation.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use. He stated, “The use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.”
Davis continued, “Clearly, what the Russians have done here is to take the nuclear warheads off the missile and launch the missile either as an inert missile without anything on it or maybe with some sort of conventional warhead.”
“They are trying to send a message. They’re trying to massively say to the West, ‘Look, the use of these Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles maybe is challenging Russia’s critical interests.’ And so they’re trying to intimidate us into backing down here,” he added.
Videos posted on X show what could be warheads from the ICBM striking targets in Dnipro.
What’s clear is that the Biden-Harris administration knew exactly what they were doing by provoking Russia with the deployment of ATACMS and British missiles. US officials have since closed the US Embassy in Kyiv “out of an abundance of caution.”
In markets, Goldman’s Ece Kepekci commented on the situation:
“Think particularly in Europe, there is a real geopolitical risk premia now as Ukraine/Russia following a series of escalations. Europe gave up its early rally yday on the back of further missile attacks (early this morning “Ukraine says Russia Fired ICBM”). Off ramps not obvious but again this is not a new conflict and you’re supposed to fade geopolitical escalation. Sentiment has come down quite a bit “the bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was 8.1 vs 21.5 last week.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, “It’s a very dangerous position that the outgoing administration is taking,” adding, “There is a new escalation happening.”…
Democrats endgame? Start WW3 before Trump enters the White House?
end
US Officials Say Russia Didn’t Fire ICBM At Ukraine, But A ‘New’ Intermediate-Range Missile
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 10:57 AM
Update(1057ET): Ukraine’s earlier claim that its territory had been struck by an intercontinental ballistic missile fired by Russia is being hotly disputed, hours after widespread reports first appeared. US officials are saying it appears to be a new intermediate-range ballistic missile and not an ICBM which targeted the central city of Dnipro
The NY Times has reported in follow-up of the attack that “several Western officials said that the weapon was not an ICBM and instead was likely an intermediate-range missile that flies shorter distances.”
Zelensky himself had claimed Russia used a new class of missile. “All the parameters — speed, altitude — match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile,” he said. “All expert evaluations are underway.” But US defense officials are contradicting this:
A senior U.S. official said the weapon appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, adding, “But it is a new type we have been tracking.”
US officials have also called it an “experimental” missile. There’s also been some quibbling among experts are how to characterize the projectiles which were observed hitting Ukraine at incredibly high rates of speed, in terms of rocket size and distance.
Assuming Washington is correct, and that it wasn’t an ICBM, this suggests Zelensky’s hasty verdict is all about threat inflation coming at a time he’s desperately trying to get the West’s attention, arguing in favor of greater NATO military intervention against Russia.
* * *
Ukraine’s Air Force Command says that Russia has, for the first time in the multi-year war, launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. This unprecedented escalation follows Ukraine’s recent use of US-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) and British Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets deep within Russia. The use of an ICBM is Russia demonstrating its greater capabilities in response to Ukraine’s long-range missile strikes.
A senior Ukrainian military official told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called “RS-26 Rubezh” that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital.
Although RS-26 Rubezh can be used to deliver a thermonuclear warhead or an Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, Thursday morning’s attack on the Dnipro region was non-nuclear, instead some sort of conventional warhead.
“Using these kinds of missiles, whether RS-26 or a true ICBM, in a conventional role does not make a lot of sense because of their relatively low accuracy and high cost,” Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, wrote on X.
“But this kind of a strike might have a value as a signal,” Podvig added.
And yes, it does.
Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told CNN that the ICBM strike on Ukraine is a “message” to Kyiv’s Western backers. He emphasized that this week’s escalations, including the Biden-Harris administration greenlighting Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles to strike military targets in Russia, have likely prompted this escalation.
Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold for nuclear weapons use. He stated, “The use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.”
Davis continued, “Clearly, what the Russians have done here is to take the nuclear warheads off the missile and launch the missile either as an inert missile without anything on it or maybe with some sort of conventional warhead.”
“They are trying to send a message. They’re trying to massively say to the West, ‘Look, the use of these Storm Shadow and ATACMS missiles maybe is challenging Russia’s critical interests.’ And so they’re trying to intimidate us into backing down here,” he added.
Videos posted on X show what could be warheads from the ICBM striking targets in Dnipro.
END
US Officials Say Russia Didn’t Fire ICBM At Ukraine, But A ‘New’ Intermediate-Range Missile
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 10:57 AM
Update(1057ET): Ukraine’s earlier claim that its territory had been struck by an intercontinental ballistic missile fired by Russia is being hotly disputed, hours after widespread reports first appeared. US officials are saying it appears to be a new intermediate-range ballistic missile and not an ICBM which targeted the central city of Dnipro
The NY Times has reported in follow-up of the attack that “several Western officials said that the weapon was not an ICBM and instead was likely an intermediate-range missile that flies shorter distances.”
Zelensky himself had claimed Russia used a new class of missile. “All the parameters — speed, altitude — match those of an intercontinental ballistic missile,” he said. “All expert evaluations are underway.” But US defense officials are contradicting this:
A senior U.S. official said the weapon appeared to be an intermediate-range ballistic missile, adding, “But it is a new type we have been tracking.”
US officials have also called it an “experimental” missile. There’s also been some quibbling among experts are how to characterize the projectiles which were observed hitting Ukraine at incredibly high rates of speed, in terms of rocket size and distance.
Assuming Washington is correct, and that it wasn’t an ICBM, this suggests Zelensky’s hasty verdict is all about threat inflation coming at a time he’s desperately trying to get the West’s attention, arguing in favor of greater NATO military intervention against Russia.
* * *
Update(1320ET): On Thursday President Vladimir Putin issued a stern warning in the wake of Ukraine launching long-range strikes on Russia’s territory utilizing newly approved US and UK long-range missiles.
“Kiev has launched a long-range missile strike against military facilities located within internationally-recognized Russian territory,” began his televised address by saying. He confirmed British-made Storm Shadow missiles and US-made HIMARS were fired targets located in Bryansk and Kursk Regions.
He said this action threatens to turn the Ukraine conflict into a global war. “A regional Ukraine conflict instigated by the West has acquired elements of a global one,” Putin spelled out, and noted that these systems cannot be used without the direct operational involvement of Western military specialists.
But he went on to claim that the inbound Western rockets were intercepted by Russian defenses. “The goals that have apparently been set by the enemy have not been achieved.” He suggested injuries among some personnel at a command center in Kursk, but noted it continues full operations. He also asserted that no Western systems can counter Russia’s new missiles, on display earlier in the day.
“The use of such weapons by the enemy cannot affect the course of the situation in the Special Military Operation zone,” Putin stressed. He also said it was a big mistake for the US to pull out of the the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019.
Can things cool prior to Trump taking office, or will Zelensky and the West risk bigger confrontation, to likely trigger Russian hypersonic missiles or even a tactical nuke? This is indeed an ultra-dangerous slide.
END
Russia Says It’s Ready For Any “Realistic” Ukraine Peace Plan As ICBMs Fly
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 03:05 PM
After Russian intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) went airborne Thursday for the first time of the war, reportedly targeting the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro, the Kremlin is emphasizing that it is still open to peace – amid this week’s fresh wave of hugely escalatory policies issued from the US and UK (namely, greenlighting long-range attacks on Russian territory with West-supplied missiles).
A senior Ukrainian military official earlier told the Financial Times that Russia launched an ICBM called “RS-26 Rubezh” that has a range of 3,700 miles and can strike any European capital. In the wake of this, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a press briefing that Russia is still ready to consider any “realistic” peace initiative on the conflict in Ukraine.
She said a realistic plan takes into account Russia’s own interests and the situation on the ground. “We are open to negotiations, we are ready to consider any realistic, non-politicized initiative – of course,” Zakharova said.
“I would like to emphasize once again: the key word is taking into account the interests of our country, the current situation on ground and guarantees of compliance with relevant agreements,” she reiterated.
President Putin has previously indicated that a realistic solution would hinge on nothing less than Ukraine giving up all aspirations to join NATO as well as the ceding of the four territories in the east and south, namely Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Ukrainian officials have throughout the war spoken as if the ceding of the eastern territories is a non-starter. However, Zelensky views Trump’s plan to jump-start peace negotiations as authentic.
“I believe that President Trump really wants a quick decision” to end the war, Zelensky told a European summit earlier this month, but followed with: “It doesn’t mean that it will happen this way.”
“He [Trump] wants this war to be finished,” Zelensky continued, but then described hasty resolution “is going to be a loss for Ukraine.”
There’s currently much speculation over why the Biden administration seems bent on hastening WW3 with only two months left in office. Is this about building rapid leverage for Kiev before Trump enters? Is the White House trying to thwart Trump’s plans for peace?
Putin might take the path of restraint and patience until Trump enters the Oval, keeping available options open – though it’s clear that things are escalating fast. The conflict grows more unpredictable by the day, given the injection of Western long-range missile systems.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
Have a listen to the George Galloway he tells the way it is as only a Brit can
Ihttps://youtu.be/QK6rbIsV6Bg?si=qxtrLZfgs_BqTbHI
In the end what few people will tell you is a war with Russia has already been declared. It only needs to be formalized. The MSM media today is worthless which is probably why people are turning away. The media should be ripping the fools apart because none of this is necessary.
NO ONE asked whether this was needed. But to save the hides of thieving Politicians and Neocons a state of war does exist.
Over night one RS-26 missile was sent as a reminder of reality. There is much more in the works. Since a state of war does exist certain sites in places like Poland are well within the cross hairs as potential threats.
As for the poor Brits, George may well be correct that millions will shiver and many older people will die this winter.
What a terrible shame upon humanity for ever allowing this to come this far. As matters worsen which they will step by step hopefully daily more people will wake up.
end
RUSSIA.UKRAINE/USA
ROBERT H
END
UKRAINE/RUSSIA/USA
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Steve Bannon & Dr. Paul Alexander (Bannon’s War Room) Explains The Orchestrated Coup Against President Trump Conducted By Medical Deep State; they subverted 45/47
Not one governmental official involved in the COVID pandemic response in US, Canada, UK etc., knew and know what the hell they are and were talking about. They have all been flat wrong on all COVID!
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 20 |
Not one aspect of OWS worked, no lockdown, no school closure…nothing worked! COVID was a fraud, all of it, a fraud PCR-manufactured over-cycled, false positive non-pandemic to NOTHING, had we done NOTHING, most would not have died! It is what we did in response that killed most of our precious people.
SOURCE:
Alexander COVID News-Dr. Paul Elias Alexander’s Newsletter is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
end
Former Health and Human Services (HHS) Advisor to Trump, Dr. Paul E. Alexander prior joined The Alex Jones Show & broke down the truth behind the deadly mRNA bioweapon pushed as a Covid vaccine
MUST SEE INTERVIEW: Covid Jab Is A Bioweapon, Says Former Health and Human Services Advisor to Trump; see this interview I did with Alex Jones in his Austin Texas before they went after him
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 21 |
MUST SEE INTERVIEW: Covid Jab Is A Bioweapon, Says Former Health and Human Services Advisor to Trump
SLAY NEWS
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EVOL NEWS
NEWS ADDICTS
| LATEST REPORTS FOR NEWS JUNKIES |
| ABC News ‘journalist’ blames TRUMP after Laken Riley’s killer got life in prisonIn a disgusting display, ABC News journalist Ike Ejiochi blamed President Trump after Laken Riley’s illegal immigrant killer got life in prison. Ejiochi said, in the most condemning voice he could get away with on a news show, that “the president-elect campaigning on the death of Laken Riley and pointing to the current administration, saying that their laws and what …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Ellen DeGeneres Has Moved to Great Britain: ‘Never Coming Back’Ellen DeGeneres and Portia de Rossi have reportedly left the US after Donald Trump’s second presidential win. Sources close to the couple told TMZ that they decided to “get the hell out” of the country immediately following the President-elect’s victory over Kamala Harris. The pair was feeling “very disillusioned” with the news, per the outlet, and they have since settled …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trumpworld Leaker Drops Another Hit on Pete HegsethWho is the leaker in the Trump Transition team? Vanity Fair last Thursday evening, citing a “transition source,” dropped a hit piece on Pete Hegseth, President Trump’s nominee for Defense Secretary. Citing two sources, Vanity Fair reported that Trump’s newly appointed Chief of Staff, Susie Wiles, was briefed about a sexual misconduct allegation involving Pete Hegseth. “Donald Trump’s transition team …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Musk and Vivek Pen Detailed Op-Ed About Their Plans for DOGEPresident-elect Donald Trump named entrepreneurs Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to co-lead a newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), tasked with creating a more efficient government, most notably within the bloated federal bureaucracy. Trump indicated that the DOGE will operate outside the confines of government. The incoming president said in a statement that Musk and Ramaswamy “will pave the …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Trans Congressman Sarah McBride Responds to Capitol Hill Bathroom BanDelaware state senator Tim “Sarah” McBride, a biological male who has since ‘transitioned’ to a woman, became the first transgender elected to the U.S. House of Representatives after winning Delaware’s only House seat. “Tonight is a testament to Delawareans that here in our state of neighbors, we judge candidates based on their ideas and not their identities,” McBride said earlier …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/COL MACGREGOR
Col. MacGregor: Trump & The Storm Of The Century
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 07:40 PM
Authored by Col. Douglas Macgregor (ret.)
The fear in many nations’ capitals is that President Donald Trump’s return to Washington might make Israel feel more confident in attacking Iran. According to Mike Evans, founder of the Friends of Zion Museum in Jerusalem, “There is no world leader Trump respects more than Netanyahu.”
The evangelical leader also confides that President Trump would support an Israeli attack before his inauguration on the assumption that the destruction of Iran’s oil production facilities would devastate Iran’s economy, inducing Iran to end the war with Israel before President Trump assumes his office. This thinking by no means excludes an Israeli decision to strike Iran’s nuclear development sites as well.
What Trump will or will not do is unknown. When the illusive stillness in the standoff between Tehran and Jerusalem will end is also unknown.
One thing is certain: If America joins Israel in its war against Iran, the outcome will be a geopolitical showdown that could dramatically alter the world as we know it. It is the storm of the 21st century and, for the moment, the American ship of state is sailing right into it.
At a minimum, Trump should demand answers from his civilian and military advisors to four important questions.
Question 1. What is the American purpose in waging war against Iran? Is Washington’s purpose to destroy the Iranian state? To destroy its capability to wage war against Israel? To eliminate Iran’s developing nuclear capability? Or to decapitate the Iranian state in the hope that the Iranian people will overthrow their national government?
All these goals demand serious study and analysis. In some cases, they overlap; in others they do not. The answers require identifying resources, manpower, capabilities, and the time needed to achieve these goals.
It is obvious that America’s air and naval forces will have to deliver powerful disabling strikes through dense Iranian air and missile defenses while potentially defending themselves and American military bases against attacks by Iranian and allied forces in the region. How long can these forces operate before their stocks of munitions are exhausted and their human and materiel losses are replaced?
Based on these answers, the stated objectives may or may not be attainable. National political and military leaders habitually plan and organize to achieve short, decisive outcomes, but wars always last longer than anticipated.
Question 2. How will U.S. military power achieve the objectives?
What is the right mix of weapon systems and munitions? What targets promise effects that profoundly shape Iran’s ability to fight? In the aftermath of the Second World War, studies of bombing effectiveness revealed that the most important contribution air power made to Germany’s defeat was the destruction of Germany’s fuel production and the transportation network to move it. Its second-most important contribution was to cause German air forces to defend Germany’s cities and industries, thus stripping the German army of its close air support. But thousands of tons of bombs were still dropped on thousands of targets with minimal impact on the German war machine.
Can air and missile power alone compel the Iranian State to submit to Israeli and American demands? To date, no amount of precision-strike forces linked to space-based and terrestrial, persistent intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities has delivered victory in war.
The Kosovo air campaign inflicted enormous damage on the Serbian economy, but its impact on Serbian ground forces was minimal. Yet once Moscow withdrew its promise of energy and food support to the Serbian people, the destruction of power plants and civilian and commercial infrastructure did induce the Serbian leadership to remove its forces from Kosovo.
Read the full article here.
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
NatGas Hits Highest Price In Year On “Very Cold Pattern Developing” Across Lower 48
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 11:40 AM
Natural gas futures in Chicago jumped 6% on Thursday, reaching a one-year high as traders price a cold blast across the Lower 48.
Futures for December delivery soared to $3.372 per million British thermal units, up 6% this morning and up nearly 27% since Nov. 8. Prices also touched a one-year.
Ole R. Hvalbye, a Commodities Analyst at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (SEB), told energy news website Rigzone that NatGas soared on “the latest National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) short-term forecast (6-14 days) predicts colder than normal temperatures spreading from the West Coast, with below-average conditions expected across much of the country, except for the Gulf Coast and East Coast.”
Data from Bloomberg shows that temperatures across the Lower 48 are forecasted to trend below a 30-year average for the next few weeks, indicating that fuel demand will rise as thermostats are turned up.
More weather forecast…
Plus, there are major snow threats across the Mid-Alantic and Northeast.
x.com/JimCantore/status/1859533731641373025
“Adding to the bullish sentiment, feedgas supply to U.S. LNG export terminals has climbed to 14.07 billion cubic feet per day, the highest level since January 2024, according to BNEF,” Hvalbye added.
The SEB analyst continued, “This marks a significant increase from last week’s average of 13.5 billion cubic feet per day. Additionally, export flows to Mexico are estimated at 6.6 billion cubic feet per day today, highlighting strong demand from the region.”
He said, “Domestic natural gas production in the U.S. is estimated at 101.8 billion cubic feet per day today, slightly below last week’s average of 102.4 billion cubic feet per day.”
“Meanwhile, demand for nat gas across the Lower 48 states has risen to 79.3 billion cubic feet per day but remains below the five-year average of approximately 82.7 billion cubic feet per day,” he noted.
Hvalbye added that the EU gas market will continue to see upward price pressure as global demand for LNG cargoes intensifies during the Northern Hemisphere winter season.
One of the biggest questions for energy traders is how high prices will rise before drillers, who curtailed output earlier this year, begin ramping up production.
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
INDIA
Hindenburg is correct!! Adani indicted for massive fraud and a multi billion dollar bribery scheme
This company has a “net worth” of 218 billion usa dollars
lot of people are going to be burned on this
(zerohedge)
Indian Billionaire Gautam Adani Indicted For ‘Massive Fraud’ And ‘Multi-Billion Dollar’ Bribery Scheme
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 05:40 PM
Indian billionaire Gautam Adani has been indicted in New York for ‘massive fraud’ and a ‘multi-billion dollar’ bribery scheme, according to multiple reports Wednesday afternoon.
According to NBC, Gautam Adani and others are accused of paying over $250 million in bribes to Indian officials to secure solar energy contracts expected to yield $2 billion in profits over 20 years. Prosecutors allege Adani personally met with officials as part of the scheme.
Adani, his nephew Sagar Adani, and Vneet Jaain, both Adani Green Energy executives, also face wire and securities fraud charges for misleading U.S. investors and lenders to obtain funding, the U.S. Attorney’s Office in Brooklyn stated.
U.S. Attorney Breon Peace commented: “The defendants orchestrated an elaborate scheme to bribe Indian government officials to secure contracts worth billions of dollars and Gautam S. Adani, Sagar R. Adani and Vneet S. Jaain lied about the bribery scheme as they sought to raise capital from U.S. and international investors.”
A DOJ press release reads: “These offenses were allegedly committed by senior executives and directors to obtain and finance massive state energy supply contracts through corruption and fraud at the expense of U.S. investors. The Criminal Division will continue to aggressively prosecute corrupt, deceptive, and obstructive conduct that violates U.S. law, no matter where in the world it occurs.”
“Gautam S. Adani and seven other business executives allegedly bribed the Indian government to finance lucrative contracts designed to benefit their businesses. Adani and other defendants also defrauded investors by raising capital on the basis of false statements about bribery and corruption, while still other defendants allegedly attempted to conceal the bribery conspiracy by obstructing the government’s investigation,” stated FBI Assistant Director in Charge Dennehy. “The FBI maintains its steadfast mission to expose all corrupt agreements, especially with international governments, and protect investors from related harm.”
The indictment also charges former Azure Power executives Ranjit Gupta and Rupash Agarwal, along with three ex-employees of Canadian investor Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec, with conspiring to violate the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act as part of Adani’s bribery scheme.
U.S. short seller Hindenburg Research issued a report in early 2023 claiming Adani Group conducted a “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades.” Hindenburg called Adani Group “the largest con in corporate history”.
“Today we reveal the findings of our 2-year investigation, presenting evidence that the INR 17.8 trillion (US $218 billion) Indian conglomerate Adani Group has engaged in a brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades,” the report said in 2023.
Adani “has amassed a net worth of roughly $120 billion, adding over $100 billion in the past 3 years largely through stock price appreciation in the group’s 7 key listed companies, which have spiked an average of 819% in that period,” the report said.
Bloomberg provided a quick snapshot of Hindenburg’s main allegations at the time, many of which haven’t even been addressed in this indictment (yet?):
- Identified 38 Mauritius shell entities controlled by Adani’s brother, Vinod Adani, or his close associates plus entities controlled by him in other tax havens.
- The offshore shell network seems to be used for earnings manipulation
- Adani Group has previously been the focus of 4 major government investigations relating to allegations of fraud
- Adani Enterprises and Adani Total Gas Ltd. appear to be audited by a tiny firm, with no current website, only 4 partners and 11 employees which has audited just one other listed firm
- The auditor “hardly seems capable of complex audit work” when Adani Enterprises alone has 156 subsidiaries and many more joint ventures.
Hindenburg’s report initially led to a $50 billion selloff in Adani’s corporate empire. Adani, in response, called Hindenburg’s short report “bogus” and threatened legal action. At the time, Adani Group’s legal team released a statement that said it was exploring legal action against Hindenburg for its “maliciously mischievous, unresearched” report.
Then, Dan McCrum, famous for helping unveil the fraud at Wirecard, followed up in late 2023 stating Adani “appears to have imported billions of dollars of coal at prices well above market value”.
Adani called McCrum’s article a “renewed attempt” by the paper to “rehash old and baseless allegations to tarnish the name and standing” of the company. At the time they denied any wrongdoing and said the story was based on an “old, baseless allegation”, and is “a clever recycling and selective misrepresentation of publicly available facts and information”.
“Adani is attacking journalist Dan McCrum at the Financial Times (FT) over an upcoming article,” Hindenburg’s Anderson wrote late last year after Adani’s press release. “The last company that tried that was Wirecard, later found to be the largest fraud in German history.”
END
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS THURSDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0523 DOWN 22
USA/ YEN 154.44 DOWN 0.833 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2633 DOWN .0020
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.3960 DOWN 0.0008 (CDN DOLLAR UP 25 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 2.42 PTS OR 0.07%
Hang Seng CLOSED DOWN 103.90 OR 0.53%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED DOWN .14%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MIXED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MIXED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED DOWN 103.90 PTS OR 0.53%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 2/42 PTS OR 0.07%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED DOWN .14%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 326.17 PTS OR 0.85%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE RED
Gold very early morning trading: 2664.90
silver:$31.09
USA dollar index early THURSDAY morning: 106.61 UP 0 BASIS POINTS FROM WEDNESDAY’s CLOSE.
THURSDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing THURSDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.774% DOWN 5 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.084% UP 2 AND 2/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 3.026 DOWN 4 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.553 DOWN 5 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.3015 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : THURSDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0479 DOWN .0067 OR 67 basis points
USA/Japan: 154.54 DOWN 0.724 OR YEN IS UP 114 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.430 DOWN 3 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN 19 OR 19 BASIS pts to 1.3968
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.2378(ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2421)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.48 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.084
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 1 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.399% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.592 DOWN 2 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.310 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2663.25
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.72
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: THURSDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 64 PTS OR 0.79%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 141,39 OR 0.74%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 14.87 PTS OR 0.21%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 22.20 OR 0.19%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 67.20 OR 0.20%
WTI Oil price 69.93 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 73.65 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 101.11 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 51/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.3015 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.4780 DOWN 2 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.429 UP 1 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.255 UP 2
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0479 DOWN 0.0067 OR 67 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2597 DOWN 0.0058 OR 58 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.430 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.086
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 154.754 DOWN .724 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.3969 DOWN 0.0000 CDN dollar UP 00 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 70.18
Brent OIL: 74.30
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 2 BASIS pts to 4.430
USA 30 yr bond yield UP 3 BASIS PTS to 4.616%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 1 PTS AT 4.349 UP 4 BASIS PTS
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.487 UP 14 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.322 UP 14 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.98 UP 36 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.49 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 101.29 DOWN 0 AND 70/100 roubles
GOLD 2,670.25 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.79 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: UP 461.76 PTS OR 1.06%
NASDAQ UP 73.68 PTS OR 0.36%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 16.95 DOWN 0.21 PTS OR 1.22%
GLD: $246.64 UP 2.03 OR 0.829%
SLV/ $28.04 DOWN 0.06 OR 0.21%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:UP 342.62 PTS OR 1.37%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Mega-Caps Mullered As Bitcoin, Bullion, & ‘Big Shorts’ Burst Higher
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 04:00 PM
Of course, as goes NVDA, so goes the market, and after last night’s beat (but disappointing revenue forecast), the giantest of giant tech companies swung around like a penny stock, adding and subtracting $100s of billions in market cap in an instant…
Bear in mind that the vol market had pegged an 8% swing – Jensen’s comments helped rescue the stock: “I believe that there will be no digestion until we modernize a trillion dollars with the data centers.”
Interestingly, while NVDA managed to hold on to gains, the Mega-Cap tech basket was hit hard and could not bounce back to green…
Source: Bloomberg
… as GOOGL was clubbed like a baby seal…
Source: Bloomberg
All the major indices ended the day green (though Nasdaq lagged), as Small Caps ripped…
…thanks to a huge short squeeze (again)…
Source: Bloomberg
On the macro side, it was ‘bad news’: Philly Fed fell hard in November (from +10.3 to -5.5 vs +8.0 exp), Continuing Jobless claims topped 1.9mm Americans for the first time in three years (initial claims dropped), and the Leading Index dropped 0.4% (more than expected). Initial claims and existing home sales were positive to offset some of the negative but overall, the US Macro Surprise index actually rolled over…
Source: Bloomberg
Treasury yields were marginally higher on the day with the short-end lagging (2Y +3bps, 30Y +1bps). That pulled the short-end higher on the week, while the belly is outperforming on the week…
Source: Bloomberg
Rate-cut expectations continued to slide with less than three full 25bp cuts now priced-in by the end of 2025…
Source: Bloomberg
As bond yields rose, so did oil prices with WTI holding back above $70…
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar rallied back up near post-election highs…
Source: Bloomberg
But, the big news of the day was in ‘alternate’ currencies with bitcoin continuing to charge higher (topping $99k) as Gensler announced his retirement and Trump’s crypto council takes shape…
Source: Bloomberg
…and Gold also soared back above its 50DMA…
Source: Bloomberg
…up for the 4th straight day after 6 straight down following the election…
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, Bitcoin finally took out its record high relative to gold…
Source: Bloomberg
Do you feel lucky?
END
MORNING TRADING
II USA DATA
Continuing Jobless Claims Hit 3-Year-Highs As Initial Claims Tumble To 7-Month-Lows
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 08:37 AM
Just 213,000 Americans filed for first-time jobless benefits last week – the lowest number since April – as natural disasters’ effects fade from the data…
Source: Bloomberg
The overhang from the hurricanes has seemingly ended…
Source: Bloomberg
But WTF is going on in California?
Last week saw initial claims explode higher there..
…and this week claims collapsed…
However, the number of Americans filing for continuing jobless claims jumped back above 1.9 million for the first time since November 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
Totally normal…
Source: Bloomberg
So is the labor market in trouble or not?
end
Existing Home Sales Rise YoY For First Time Since July 2021, But…
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 10:09 AM
Existing Home Sales were expected to rebound modestly in October (+2.9% MoM) after dropping for 6 of the last 7 months to the lowest levels since 2010, and they did. Sales rose 3.4% MoM (a beat) but thanks to a downward revision for September from -1.0% to -1.3% MoM. What is most shocking about the shift is that it pushed the YoY change for existing home sales positive (+2.9% YoY) for the first time since July 2021…
Source: Bloomberg
…but in context, that shift up to 3.96mm SAAR homes sold is nothing…
Source: Bloomberg
High borrowing costs have led to a shortage of previously owned homes on the market, discouraging many would-be home sellers from listing their properties for sale and having to part with their current low financing costs.
“Additional job gains and continued economic growth appear assured, resulting in growing housing demand,” NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said in a prepared statement.
“While mortgage rates remain elevated, they are expected to stabilize.”
Last month, the inventory of available homes edged up 0.7% to 1.37 million, continuing to trend higher although well below pre-pandemic levels.
Despite the weakness in sales, tight inventory is keeping prices elevated, yielding one of the least affordable housing markets on record. The median sale price last month increased 4% from a year earlier to $407,200, the highest ever for any October, the NAR figures show.
Contract signings rose in all four US regions, led by a 6.7% jump in the Midwest.
Sales of single-family homes increased 3.5% in October; purchases of condominiums and co-ops were up 2.7%
Finally, while that’s all very exciting – a scintilla of growth off almost record lows – the fecal matter is about to strike the rotating object as rising mortgage rates lagged impact threatens…
Source: Bloomberg
In October, 59% of homes sold were on the market for less than a month, compared with 57% in September, and 19% sold above the list price. Properties remained on the market for 29 days on average, compared with 28 days in the previous month. First-time buyers made up 27% of purchases, still historically low.
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
Food Lobbyists Plot To Have It Their Way With RFK Jr.
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 08:55 PM
Authored by Lee Fang via RealClearInvestigations,
America’s most famous fast-food fan may be an unlikely candidate to make America healthy again, but Donald Trump seems willing to tackle the eating habits that have led to skyrocketing rates of obesity. The junk food industry is not lovin’ it.
RealClearInvestigations has learned that representatives of companies that make snack foods, sugary beverages, and cooking oils are already meeting to discuss how to thwart the reform agenda of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the former consumer rights attorney Trump has said he will nominate to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Their response provides an early example of what experts predict will be a massive effort by D.C. lobbyists to position their clients in response to Trump’s pledge to change how Washington does business.
Although much of the early criticism of Kennedy’s nomination has focused on his skepticism regarding some vaccines, the nominee is a longtime critic of the food industry, which he says is a leading contributor to America’s obesity epidemic. In recent months, he has called for a crackdown on food additives, limits on certain crop protection chemicals, stronger guidelines regarding what he says are conflicts of interest among regulators and business, and a review of any substance causing, what he argues, Americans to be “mass poisoned by big pharma and big food.”
Kennedy’s nomination sets up what may turn out to be the biggest reversal between the first Trump administration and the second. The last time around, Trump’s appointees, acting in deference to traditional business interests, moved to reverse regulations on neurotoxic insecticides and added delays to updates for school lunch nutritional standards.
In videos that have gone viral this year, Kennedy has singled out ultra-processed food as a priority for what Kennedy has called his “Make America Healthy Again” (MAHA) agenda. In one video devoted to the potential dangers of Yellow 5 food dye, Kennedy stands before a table with Doritos chips and Cap’n Crunch cereal and claims the ingredients used in such products are one reason more than 40% of American adults are classified as obese by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The dye, also known as tartrazine, has been linked to behavioral problems in children and other health risks. The European Union requires child warning labels for products with tartrazine.
Kennedy has made similar arguments about the widespread use of seed oils – including those from corn, soybeans, sunflowers, and peanuts – especially in highly processed foods. Research suggests that high levels of seed oils, rich in polyunsaturated fat, can cause inflammation. America’s overreliance on seed oils in fast food and snack products, Kennedy claims, is a major overlooked factor in the health crisis.
Food industry leaders began sounding the alarm even before the election. In October, Invariant, a powerful government relations firm that advises many food companies on how to shape policies in Washington, D.C., warned clients of Kennedy’s growing sway over Trump and the Republican Party.
“Increasing number of voices on the right target the food industry,” an October memo stated, which went out to clients that include McDonald’s and America’s largest candy makers. The lobbyists warned that Kennedy’s MAHA movement “had gained increasing momentum among conservative figures who have taken a more vocal interest in the way food is produced and regulated.”
Those initial alarm bells have become a siren among snack food makers and agribusiness representatives, according to records obtained by RCI. Last Friday, lobbyists for major processed food producers huddled over Zoom to discuss the rise of MAHA and how best to handle Kennedy’s recently announced nomination.
Danielle Beck, a participant on the call who represents PepsiCo, makers of Doritos and Cap’n Crunch, and the Corn Refiners Association, a trade group for the largest producers of corn-based seed oils, noted that Congress could limit Kennedy’s abilities.
The “traditional agriculture and food stakeholders,” Beck noted, “might look to leverage, you know, the appropriations process” to curb what Kennedy is allowed to “initiate or implement.”
Congressional appropriators often use the annual funding process to limit federal authorities. In 2010, under sway from industry sources, the House Appropriations Committee inserted a provision into federal funding that forced tomato paste on frozen pizzas to be counted as a vegetable under dietary regulations.
The lobbyists noted that Kennedy’s lengthy set of demands could also be exploited to stymie his overall agenda. “If RFK Jr. is focused on twenty different things, chances of success are likely limited,” observed Ken Barbic, another Invariant lobbyist representing processed foods firms and farming interests.
Invariant, though founded by Heather Podesta, a prominent Democratic fundraiser, boasts bipartisan influence. Barbic, for instance, served during the first Trump administration in the Department of Agriculture and the firm employs a number of former GOP aides.
The Senate confirmation process, the lobbyists added, could be another process through which industry may shape the MAHA list of priorities. As Kennedy meets with individual senators, Beck noted, “serious conversations and commitments can be made to secure those votes that might end up resulting in some shifts in RFK’s overall agenda.”
In other words, in order to line up more than 50 votes in the Senate, the lobbyists suggest Kennedy may be convinced to trade away some of his MAHA demands.
Similar strategy sessions have percolated across Washington Beltway lobbying shops representing food, beverage, and drug industries. The American Farm Bureau, which represents pesticide companies and farming interests, recently said it was working to “combat misinformation that has been spread by several sources including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. regarding critical crop protection tools and agricultural practices.”
The Consumer Brands Association, which represents Kellogg, Coca-Cola, PepsiCo, General Mills, and other processed foods firms, has also met with lawmakers, preparing for a fight over MAHA agenda items, according to a report from Politico.
Other Kennedy proposals could spark a ferocious backlash from corporate America, particularly his suggestion that the U.S. fall in line with most of the industrialized world and ban direct-to-consumer pharmaceutical advertising. Drug firms spend more than $1 billion per year on television spots. Shutting off the gusher of ad dollars would likely mobilize stark opposition from media conglomerates and the drug lobby.
But it is RFK’s ideas around wellness and nutrition that have percolated most with the new Trump coalition. The farm and processed food lobby must contend with a sea change within the Republican Party, which now relies on populist vigor increasingly receptive to the idea of reforming the way American food is produced and sold.
In September, Sen. Ron Johnson, a Wisconsin Republican, led a roundtable discussion with popular food industry critics. During the hearing, the stars of this nascent movement, including Dr. Casey Means and her brother Calley Means, food blogger Vani Hari, and author Max Lugavere, took turns at the microphone to pin the blame for America’s poor health mainly on the influence of processed food companies.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a Kennedy ally, was scheduled to host a similar roundtable but had to cancel at the last minute due to Hurricane Helene flooding in North Carolina.
Such rhetoric suggests a political realignment on food and wellness issues. Bernie Sanders, perhaps the Senate’s most liberal lawmaker, has held a series of hearings on chronic disease, focusing on the influence of corporate actors, and departing Biden administration officials have called for an overhaul of the dietary guidelines. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to provide a new definition of the “healthy ” food label with stronger limits on saturated fats, sodium, and added sugars, a proposal that might find continuity under a Kennedy-controlled agency.
Kennedy himself is a former Democrat-turned-independent who was briefly floated as the Environmental Protection Agency chief for President Barack Obama in 2008. He has worked on several successful litigation efforts that have challenged the safety of widely used chemicals. Kennedy was part of the team that challenged glyphosate, sold as Roundup, over its links to cancer, a case that led to a $290 million verdict for the plaintiffs.
While such regulatory interventions were once the province of the left, the MAHA movement capitalizes on a shift in media consumption by those in the Trump orbit.
Joe Rogan, the most popular podcaster in the country, has emphasized the dangers posed by high fructose corn syrup, seed oils, and sugary, processed foods. He has hosted many of the most vocal activists aligned with the MAHA movement, including the Means siblings.
“I love this idea of you teaming up with Robert Kennedy, and I love this ‘Make America Healthy Again’ idea,” said Rogan during his sit-down with Trump during the campaign, which garnered over 50 million views on YouTube.
“There are chemicals and ingredients in our food that are illegal in other countries because they’ve been shown to be toxic,” Rogan added during the interview.
Trump, in response, pledged to give Kennedy wide latitude over health policy, though he said he disagreed with his views on energy and the environment. In the past, Kennedy has opposed expanded oil and natural gas fracking and previously supported a moratorium on new nuclear energy – priorities of the new administration.
Yet Kennedy’s focus on health taps into a rich vein of new populist energy that defies easy ideological definition. The outreach to podcasters and wellness influencers has been credited with helping Trump secure the young male vote, which swung away from Democrats by nearly 30 percentage points.
It is a dynamic agribusiness interests have noticed. The Invariant team credited the rise of RFK’s influence to the growing prominence of podcasts and independent media.
“Trump appeared on more than 35 different podcasts,” noted Jenny Werwa, a strategic communications consultant with Invariant.
When seeking influence with policymakers, the food and beverage industry typically focuses advertising dollars on insider Beltway media, such as Politico and Punchbowl News, added Werwa during the call with clients last Friday. Instead, she suggested, the industry should “think about how you might be able to partner with non-traditional media for content,” adding that Rogan and certain independent Substack publishers should be considered moving forward.
Consumer brands generally seek to avoid public engagement in politics, typically working through third parties and industry groups.
Invariant is one of many lobbying firms in the middle of the conflict. The firm not only represents highly processed snack producers, corn refiners, and fast food establishments like McDonald’s, but also Campbell Soup, McCain Foods, and the American Beverage Association, the lobby group for sugary sodas.
The lobbyists at the firm shared a memo outlining additional steps. Clients in the “food and agriculture space need to continue both defensive efforts – including legislative and regulatory efforts – while also considering offensive approaches that engage positively in the broader health focused debate.” The offensive approaches, however, are yet to be seen.
In the meantime, food industry giants might also hang some hope on the influence and taste of Kennedy’s boss. In a viral post-election photo, Trump is shown having dinner on his private plane with his son Don Jr., Kennedy, and Elon Musk. The menu: Big Macs and fries.
end
“Some Of Them Are With Pedophiles”: Trump’s Border Czar To Prioritize Locating 300,000 Unaccounted-For Children
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 08:05 PM
Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming border czar said he would prioritize locating or rescuing 300,000 unaccounted-for children who entered the United States as illegal immigrants and are at risk of exploitation.
“The third rail is we got over 300,000 missing children,” Tom Homan told Fox News on Monday, likely referring to a government report issued earlier this year. “Over half a million children have been trafficked into the United States. This administration released them to unvetted sponsors, and they can’t find 300,000. And based on three-and-a-half decades, some of these children are in forced labor.”
Earlier this year, the Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS’s) inspector general released a report finding that 323,000 illegal immigrant children are unaccounted for inside the United States. As of May 2024, more than 32,000 children who were served notices to appear in court did not appear, while the safety of an additional 291,000 could not be verified because they were not placed into removal proceedings, making monitoring their status challenging, according to the report.
Those figures came from Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and covered the period from October 2018 to September 2023
“We already found some in forced labor, some of them are in for sex trafficking, some of them are with pedophiles,” Homan said. “We need to save these children. That’s going to be the third rail.”
The DHS report noted that ICE, which Homan had overseen under the first Trump administration, should “take immediate action” to ensure those unaccounted-for children are safe.
Two other priorities, or “rails,” Homan said, are to secure the U.S.–Mexico border as well as deport illegal aliens who are criminals and “national security threats” still residing in the United States.
Both Homan and Trump have said they will initiate a wide-ranging mass deportation plan after the president-elect takes office on Jan. 20, 2025. Trump said on Monday he would be prepared to declare a national emergency to move things forward.
Some pro-immigration groups and the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) have said they are opposed to Trump’s deportation proposals, while the ACLU has signaled it will file lawsuits to block such plans from being initiated.
On Monday, the ACLU said it sued ICE to seek records on how “privately chartered deportation flights run by ICE … could be expanded to carry out a mass deportation and detention program.”
What DHS Report Says
The DHS inspector general said in the August report that unaccounted-for children who don’t show up for immigration court dates can be “considered at higher risk for trafficking, exploitation, or forced labor.”
The office faulted ICE for failing to consistently “monitor the location and status of unaccompanied migrant children” once they are released from federal government custody.
During the period from October 2018 to September 2023, 448,820 unaccompanied children were released by ICE to the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Office of Refugee Resettlement.
The U.S. government defines an unaccompanied migrant child as someone under 18 who lacks lawful immigration status and has no parent or guardian in the country to take custody of them. When they’re apprehended by DHS, they’re transferred to the HHS’s Office of Refugee Resettlement.
ICE and the Department of Justice may initiate removal proceedings. However, some children are able to stay in the United States legally if they qualify for asylum, special visas for victims of abuse, trafficking, and other crimes, or other types of immigration relief. In those cases, removal proceedings may never start.
By some estimates, there are around 11 million illegal immigrants who currently live in the United States, some being able to do so under temporary protected status orders issued by DHS.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
END
Dan Bongino is in the running for head of the Secret Service
(zerohedge)
Trump Takes His Time With Secret Service Director Choice
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 20, 2024 – 11:00 PM
Authored by Susan Crabtree via ReaalClearPolitics,
It just might be the most personal hiring decision President-elect Trump will ever make, but if he’s already chosen, he’s keeping the contenders in suspense.
After surviving two assassination attempts in roughly two months, Donald Trump is in the awkward position of owing his life to the Secret Service agents and officers who intervened to protect him, even as he remains deeply critical of the failures that allowed the near-misses to occur.
And the threats against Trump, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance, and the leaders of the incoming administration aren’t going away. In late September, then-Rep. Matt Gaetz, Trump’s controversial choice for attorney general, said he was briefed by senior members of the Department of Homeland Security that there were five known assassination teams threatening Trump’s life, three of which he said were foreign. Just three days after the election, the Justice Department charged three people in connection to an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Trump.
Still, just days after the second attempt on this life, Trump heaped praise on the agent for quick action after spotting suspect Ryan Routh’s rifle sticking out of the bushes along the perimeter of his Florida golf course and then opening fire. Trump contrasted that swift intervention with the first attempt July 13 when a bullet grazed his ear.
“And, in this particular case, you had a very sharp agent, as good as you could find, and did a fantastic job,” Trump said in an interview on Fox News’s “Hannity.”
“But somebody could have missed the barrel of that rifle,” he added. “Somebody of lesser talents or somebody that was distracted could have missed or could have been shot, I mean, frankly, could have also been shot.”
Trump acknowledged the incident at his golf club in West Palm Beach ”worked out very well” but said the July 13 incident in Butler, Pennsylvania, when shooter Thomas Crooks killed rally goer Corey Comperatore and wounded two others before being shot by a Secret Service counter sniper, “was a very different story.”
“Somebody should have been on that building. And that’s a different story. But they also showed great … they were very brave, because, when those bullets were flying, they were … they were … trying to protect me.”
The dual sentiments no doubt factor into Trump’s decision-making regarding his choice to lead the beleaguered Secret Service. Even before the two assassination attempts, the agency was facing criticism over its DEI hiring priorities, lack of thorough applicant vetting, and the lowering of its training and physical fitness standards. At the same time, Secret Service morale hovered among the lowest of all federal agencies.
The congressional reports and a review panel’s findings also cite the inexperience of two agents in charge of security for the Butler rally, as well as the failure of supervisors to re-check their work and make the necessary changes. They also chronicled a litany of mistakes, including failing to check whether a local law enforcement agent was posted on the building where the Crooks perched, not including that building in the official event perimeter, and maintaining siloed communications between the Secret Service and local law enforcement partners.
Even though Trump was thankful for the eagle-eyed agent who spotted Routh hiding in the bushes at his West Palm Beach golf course, critics faulted his Secret Service detail for failing to sweep the perimeter. The 58-year-old had been camping out on the perimeter of the course 12 hours ahead of time but went unnoticed until Trump was within several hundred feet of his loaded rifle. Acting Secret Service Director Ronald Rowe explained the decision not to search the perimeter of the golf course because the golf game was considered off-the-record, or “OTR” in agency parlance, meaning it was not on Trump’s official schedule even though he regularly played the course on the weekends.
After the attempts on Trump’s life, the agency faced an avalanche of criticism from congressional committees, internal agency whistleblowers, and a scathing report from a bipartisan Independent Review Panel recommending a thorough overhaul of the Secret Service leadership.
The two assassination attempts within two months were the lowest point for the Secret Service since President Ronald Reagan was shot in early 1981. But Trump’s big win has boosted confidence within the agency that major reforms will begin once he names and installs a new director.
Now that Trump has won, and Secret Service employees expect the incoming president to choose new leaders, agents and officers are deeply divided on who is the best candidate to thoroughly overhaul the agency. The top reform many seek is to allow the Secret Service leaders to jettison DEI priorities and return to making hiring decisions instead of delegating recruiting and vetting to administrative personnel unfamiliar with the rigors of the protective assignments.
The top two names circulating among current and retired Secret Service agents and officers are Sean Curran, the leader of Trump’s personal detail, and Dan Bongino, a conservative commentator and host of a popular podcast who previously served for 12 years in the Secret Service.
Both were with Trump Saturday night for the Ultimate Fighting Championship match between Jon Jones and Stipe Mocic at Madison Square Garden. Curran was a part of Trump’s security team that night, and Bongino was part of Trump’s entourage of Cabinet picks, politicians, and celebrities, including Elon Musk, Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr., Dana White, Joe Rogan, Speaker Mike Johnson, Kid Rock, and Jelly Roll.
During the event, according to a Secret Service source, Bongino told other special agents protecting Trump that “Help is on the way.”
During Bongino’s Monday podcast, however, he was far more coy about Trump’s, and his, intentions.
“So, I know a lot of you are interested in a lot of the behind the scenes about who’s what … I’m just here again to repeat, none of this stuff is my decision, okay – about anything,” he told his listeners.
“You guys know what I’m talking about. And there’s a lot to think about if that decision were to happen, and you guys will be the first to know,” he added. “Because I love you, and you guys matter. And so just hang with me, you know?”
Curran was caught that night at the Madison Square Garden fight in an elevator pic with Trump and Musk. Curran usually tries to operate behind the scenes, though his image is immortalized in the iconic photo of Trump in the immediate aftermath of the first assassination attempt. Curran appears to Trump’s left as the then-GOP nominee pumps his fist in the air, blood trickling down his cheek and an American flag fluttering in the background.
The choice between Curran and Bongino is highly competitive, and each have constituencies pulling for them. Trump is very close to Curran, who served as the assistant special agent in charge of Trump’s security detail while he was president and then moved to lead the detail in 2021, when Biden won and Trump was out of office. That top leadership role continued while Trump was running for reelection. Curran’s supporters for the director job credit him for pushing back against the outmoded protocol that because Trump is technically a former president, he shouldn’t therefore be allotted more security assets.
Instead, Curran continually tried to persuade Secret Service top brass to allocate higher security resources because Trump obviously faced far more threats as one of the most well-known and controversial political figures in the world and could not be treated like other former presidents. Until the assassination attempts, however, Secret Service leaders rejected those requests, and sources say Curran has the receipts – a long-running written record of those leadership denials.
Curran was successful in obtaining more security resources for Mar-a-Lago even before the assassination attempts, although the agency was so slow in installing them that a juvenile managed to enter the property and jump into a pool late last year.
Secret Service sources say that just a few days after Trump’s decisive election win, Curran told fellow agents that he believed Trump would tap him for the top role. Many veteran agents have reached out to RCP to back Curran’s candidacy, arguing that he’s an even-keeled leader and exceptional agent regarding his training, drilling, and performance levels.
But others have faulted him for allowing an inexperienced female agent to serve as one of two agents in charge of security plans for the Butler rally, without supervisors modifying the plan after required walk-throughs and extra scrutiny. Others, including Erik Prince, a former Navy SEAL who runs the security firm Blackwater, have criticized the Secret Service leadership for a “lack of seriousness” in securing Trump throughout this campaign. He also said the perimeter should have been extended to 1,000 meters from the stage because that’s how far an expert sniper can accurately shoot.
Trump has repeatedly praised the agents who put themselves in the line of fire to protect him in the moments after he was shot in Butler, but Prince wasn’t as impressed.
“The Secret Service detail did an awful job getting Trump off the X and let him stand up again,” Prince told a panel of Republican House members at the Heritage Foundation in August.
“[It showed] great instincts of the president to come back defiant, having just been shot in the head to come back and say, ‘Fight, fight, fight,’” Prince acknowledged. “But he never should have had the opportunity to do that because his detail should have put him horizontal and moved him off there immediately.”
If Trump taps Curran to lead the Secret Service, he will reject the recommendations of two bipartisan blue-ribbon commissions who recommended in 2015 and again this year that the next president choose someone outside the agency to fill the director role.
Dan Bongino for many years has been highly critical of the Secret Service, and he was especially so after the July 13 attempt on Trump’s life. Bongino also sat on the Heritage panel to Prince’s left and took a broader view. The conservative commentator argued that the problems in the Secret Service were systemic and directly related to DEI initiatives and the lowering of meritocracy and training standards.
Rep. Cori Mills, a Florida Republican who had served as a member of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division before becoming a security specialist in the private defense sector, appeared on the same panel.
Responding to Bongino’s testimony, Mills said, “I think you’re saying DEI plays a major role, not meritocracy, with regards to the current culture that has been fostered [at the Secret Service.]
Bongino provided a terse response: “Not a [role] – but the major role,” he stressed.
The former Fox News host has a solid following on social media and among active and retired Secret Service agents and officers who argue that he would go to the mat to overhaul the agency and end DEI and other non-meritocracy hiring priorities. But some fear Bongino has been away from the Secret Service too long to know how to sort out the bad apples in leadership. Others argue that it depends on who Bongino would tap as his deputy to run the day-to-day agency operations while he’s dealing with the bigger picture and broad reforms.
Because Trump will continue to face threats from Iran throughout his time in the Oval Office, the Secret Service director will no doubt have an elevated role in the Trump administration and will likely be constantly interacting with the intelligence community to assess the threat levels. If confirmed, that elite group of national security Cabinet members would likely include Tulsi Gabbard as the director of national intelligence, or DNI, and John Ratcliffe, who previously served as DNI and whom Trump nominated to become his CIA director, as well as whomever Trump names as FBI director.
Kash Patel, a former National Security Council official in the last Trump administration, and former Rep. Mike Rogers, who had served as an FBI agent for several years, are contenders for the FBI director job. Bongino’s brash style may be better equipped to square off with those outsized egos and cut through the agency’s bureaucracy and woke policies. Some in the Secret Service community are hoping Trump appoints a leader who is listening to the rank-and-file to distinguish the bad actors from the hard-working agents and push out the ineffective and manipulative leaders.
Besides Bongino and Curran, there are several other top contenders to lead the Secret Service and the necessary reforms, including Tom Armas, a U.S. Marine general who also previously served several years as a Secret Service agent but spent the majority of his career in the military. Armas worked with Bongino in the Secret Service’s New York Field Office and has received high praise for his 9/11 bravery. Armas ran into the collapsing World Trade Center buildings and carried many people to safety amidst the chaos, dust, and debris.
If selected, Armas would follow in the footsteps of Randolph “Tex” Alles, a formerU.S. Marine Corps general and the first Secret Service director selected from outside the agency in its 159-year history. Trump chose Alles to lead the agency from 2017 to 2019. During that time, Alles built a good rapport among rank-and-file agents, but many believed several agency leaders successfully sabotaged him. Alles was swept out of the agency when Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kirstjen Nielson left her post in April 2019.
Secret Service sources are also touting Michael D’Ambrosio, a respected senior career agent and former platoon commander in the U.S. Marines, for a leadership post. D’Ambrosio aggressively helped rush Trump off stage during a Nevada campaign rally eight years ago when a protester rushed the stage.
Other names in the mix include Jim Lewis, a former Secret Service agent who now serves as a senior Department of Homeland Security official, and Billy Davis, a high-performing agent who retired in 2015 after 29 years with the Secret Service (Davis is also known as a former Clemson University football player).
Susan Crabtree is RealClearPolitics’ national political correspondent.
end
Gaetz withdraws. Now he has no seat as a congressman and will not serve Government
A big loss!
Gaetz Withdraws From Consideration For Attorney General
Thursday, Nov 21, 2024 – 12:32 PM
Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has withdrawn his name for consideration for attorney general amid growing controversy over sexual misconduct allegations.
“While the momentum was strong, it is clear that my confirmation was unfairly becoming a distraction to the critical work of the Trump/Vance Transition,” Gaetz wrote on X. “There is no time to waste on a needlessly protracted Washington scuffle, thus I’ll be withdrawing my name from consideration to serve as Attorney General. Trump’s DOJ must be in place and ready on Day 1.”
It’s unclear what’s next for Gaetz, as he resigned from Congress after Trump picked him for consideration.
Developing…
END
Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing gauge shows activity contracted in November
Business index falls to -5.5 from 10.3 in prior month
MarketWatch
Nov. 21, 2024 at 8:34?a.m. ET
The numbers: The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said Thursday its gauge of regional business activity stumbled to -5.5 in November from 10.3 in the prior month. Any reading below zero indicates deteriorating conditions.
Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal expected an 8.2 reading in November. This is the second negative reading of the year. Key details: The barometer on new orders fell 5.3 points but remained at positive 8.9 in November.
The shipments index dropped 2.9 points to 4.5. The measure on six-month business outlook jumped 19.9 points to 56.6 in November.
Big picture: Manufacturing has been soft for two years given higher interest rates and low demand.The national ISM factory index has been in contraction territory for 23 out of the past 24 months. The index slipped to 46.5% in October from 47.2% in the prior month.
Economists watch the regional Fed factory gauges for signs of potential turning points.
The Empire State Index, a similar measure of factory activity in New York State, showed business activity grew strongly in November. The index shot up 43 points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years.
The soft Philadelphia reading suggest the New York pickup might say more about local conditions than any national trend.
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
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iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
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FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
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VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
KING REPORT
| The King Report November 21, 2024 Issue 7375 | Independent View of the News |
| Ukraine fires British Storm Shadow missiles into Russia… at least one Russian military target… https://www.ft.com/content/3ed2033c-64d9-46e6-b5b0-4be7266e29ce NYT: U.S. Closes Its Kyiv Embassy, Warning of ‘Significant Air Attack’ The unusual alert came a day after Ukraine used American-made ballistic missiles to strike Russian territory for the first time… https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/20/world/europe/us-embassy-ukraine-warning.html Reuters: Exclusive: Putin, ascendant in Ukraine, eyes contours of a Trump peace deal Russian leader is open to Trump discussions – sources Moscow won’t cede significant territory, they say Putin: Ukraine must remain neutral under any deal Kyiv: Every Russian soldier must be driven out There may be room for negotiation over the precise carve-up of the four eastern regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson… While Moscow claims the four regions as wholly part of Russia, defended by the country’s nuclear umbrella, its forces on the ground control 70-80% of the territory with about 26,000 square km still held by Ukrainian troops, open-source data on the front-line shows… Two of the sources said outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden’s decision to allow Ukraine to fire American ATACMS missiles deep into Russia could complicate and delay any settlement – and stiffen Moscow’s demands as hardliners push for a bigger chunk of Ukraine… There would be no agreement unless Ukraine received security guarantees, adding: “The question is how to avoid a deal that locks the West into a possible direct confrontation with Russia one day.” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-ascendant-ukraine-eyes-contours-trump-peace-deal-2024-11-20/ China Ship Stirs Suspicions After Baltic Sea Cables Damaged The Danish military is staying near a Chinese ship that may be linked to damaged data cables in the Baltic Sea… A high-speed fiber optic cable connecting Finland and Germany was cut early Monday by what was likely an external impact and a nearby link between Lithuania and Sweden was damaged on Sunday. It was the second such incident in the Baltic Sea in just over a year. The bulk carrier, Yi Peng 3, was in the vicinity of the cables when they were damaged… Finland’s National Bureau of Investigation decided to open a criminal investigation into the damage caused to the sea cable between Finland and Germany, probing the incident as “aggravated criminal mischief and aggravated interference with communications,” according to a statement… https://www.yahoo.com/news/danish-pm-not-surprised-sabotage-094603735.html @Jkylebass: Chinese ships are intentionally cutting western undersea telecom cables and undersea gas pipelines. Pay attention…they are setting up for a Taiwan invasion. Peter Thiel: The problems are extremely difficult – They are harder than they were eight years ago. • The border is out of control • The Russia-Ukraine crisis • The Iran problem • The China-Taiwan thing It feels like the world is sleepwalking to Armageddon. https://x.com/ajtourville/status/1858313345104740566 @ces921: Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index continues to loosen (thru Friday) and is basically at the loosest levels it has been at since the start of 2022, even before the Fed started to raise interest rates. Stop gaslighting us @federalreserve. Inflation ain’t falling to 2%! https://x.com/ces921/status/1859237383507509644 Fed Gov. Bowman: Progress in Lower Inflation Appears to Have Stalled – Bowman votes against the Fed’s half-pint cut in September – the first such dissent by a Fed governor in almost two decades… Bowman was critical of the regulatory response to bank failures in early 2023… “A crisis is not a regulatory blank check… Promoting safety, soundness and financial stability should not devolve into an exercise of regulatory allocation of credit – picking winners and losers – or promoting an ideological position through more open-ended processes like bank supervision and examination.” Fed’s Bowman: Great Risks to Price Stability Than Jobs – BBG 12:15 ET Fed’s Bowman Urges Cautious Approach to Further Rate Cuts – BBG 12:15 ET Bowman: Estimate of Neutral Rate Much Higher Than Pre-Pandemic – BBG 12:15 ET @Frencheconomics: UK inflation back to +2.3% in October (+1.7% prev.) largely as a function of a slowdown in the rate of household energy deflation. UK back in line with G20 inflation rate after a couple of quarters undershooting. The most hawkish part of the UK CPI release is the fact that there are still almost half (46%) of CPI items that have their prices growing at >3%. This number would need to fall back to closer to 30% (at least historically) for stable 2% price increases. https://x.com/Frencheconomics/status/1859146963481993306 Target Corporation Reports Third Quarter Earnings (TGT crashed as much as 22.5%!) Third quarter comparable sales increased 0.3 percent, driven by strong traffic and digital performance. Guest traffic grew 2.4 percent over the prior year. Digital comparable sales grew 10.8 percent reflecting nearly 20 percent growth in same-day delivery powered by Target Circle 360™ and double digit growth in Drive Up. Beauty comparable sales grew more than 6 percent. Food & Beverage and Essentials categories grew low-single digits compared to the prior year. Third quarter gross margin rate was down 0.2 percentage points to the prior year. Year-to-date, gross margin rate has expanded by a full percentage point compared to last year. Third quarter GAAP & Adjusted EPS of $1.85 (2.30 exp.) was down 11.9% compared with last year… https://corporate.target.com/press/release/2024/11/target-corporation-reports-third-quarter-earnings With The Street beaucoup long Nvidia and visions of spectacular NVDA results to be released after the close, Nvidia opened at the high of the NYSE session (147.56) and then sank to 142.73 (-2.9% for session) at 10:20 ET. Conditioned dip buyers and inculcate NVDA bulls bought the decline. NVDA rebounded to 146.59 at 11:06 ET. But NVDA rolled over into a ‘coil.’ NVDA broke out of the coil to the downside after 13:40 ET, a plodding decline ensued. After hitting 143.3038 at 13:26 ET, NVDA turned higher and hit 146.16 at 15:50 ET and then went inert. @zerohedge on Wed: NVDA 22-Nov straddles imply a +/- 8.3% move over the next three days, while NVDA has averaged a move of +/-9.3% on its past 8 earnings days. ESZs commenced a rally from their opening on Tuesday night until 19:20 ET. ESZs then traded in a 19-handle range, with a few minor new tops, until they broke down at the NYSE opening. ESZs tumbled to 5880.00 (-58.75) at 10:20 ET on geopolitical angst. An A-B-C rally took ESZs to 5922.25 at 11:54 ET. They then stair-stepped lower until they formed a bottom of 5895.75 at 14:36 ET. ESZs then followed Nvidia higher and soared to 5942.75 at 15:50 ET. @htsfhickey: Apple “investors” certainly are brazen. But I’m not sure how much longer they can remain in denial. 38 P/E – Price cuts fail to prevent iPhone sales drop on China’s Singles Day China’s annual Singles Day shopping festival has again seen Apple’s iPhone sales decline year over year. Singles Day used to regularly see record-breaking sales for the iPhone.” “Now according to Counterpoint Research, it’s fared even worse for the 2024 Singles Day festival. While not listing a specific figure, Counterpoint claims that Apple “declined YoY by double-digit percentages.” https://appleinsider.com/articles/24/11/20/price-cuts-fail-to-prevent-iphone-sales-drop-in-chinas-singles-day Positive aspects of previous session US stocks and ESZs rallied in the afternoon on giddiness for Nvidia’s results. Negative aspects of previous session The Ukraine-Russia War escalated, again. Fangs declined sharply; an afternoon rally truncated losses. USZs declined as much as 26/32 and were -16/32 at the NYSE close. Ambiguous aspects of previous session The dollar and gold rallied. This usually occurs when geopolitical risks are high. First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 5899.45 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 5920.67; 5860.56 @ClevelandFed: Tim Nelson, a senior officer in the Cleveland Fed’s Law Enforcement Unit, shares a peek into a day in his life. Learn more about his work at the Fed… & more: https://clefed.org/3Zh2pvi Trump named ex-acting AG and Iowa TE Matt Whitaker to be the US Ambassador to NATO. Fox: Trump taps former WWE CEO Linda McMahon to serve as education secretary Linda McMahon co-founded WWE with her husband, Vince https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump-taps-former-wwe-ceo-linda-mcmahon-serve-education-secretary At 16:20 ET, NVDA reported Q3 EPS of .78 (.74 putative expectation but Street whisper much higher), adjusted EPS of .81; and revenue of $25.1B, $32.12B expected. Gross Margins are 75% as expected. NVDA sees Q4 revenue of $37.5B +/- 2%; $37.1B consensus. NVDA sank as much as 5.5%, to 137.92. Snowflake reported non-GAAP EPS of .20 (.15 exp) and sales of $942.09m ($898.99m exp). SNOW soared as much as 19%. Today – Nvidia disappointing results will dictate pre and early NYSE trading. As noted above, while The Street stated that .74 EPS for Q3 was expected for NVDA, the real expectations were much higher. Ergo, NVDA sank in after-hour trading. Stocks have been struggling. Without NVDA mania, look out! While the usual suspects save Nvidia and their massive positions in it? This is a key dynamic today. The treacherous geopolitical situation should again impact the markets. ESZs are -20.75 and NQZs are -108.00 at 20:15 ET due to Nvidia’s disappointing results. Expected economic data and Fed speakers: Nov Phil Fed Business Outlook 8.0; Initial Jobless Claims 220k, Continuing Claims 1.88m; Oct LEI -0.3%; Oct Existing Home Sales 3.95m; KC Fed Mfg. Activity -5; Cleveland Fed Pres Beth Hammack 8:45 ET and 11:30 ET, Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee 12:25 ET S&P Index 50-day MA: 5796; 100-day MA: 5652; 150-day MA: 5528; 200-day MA: 5425 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,574; 100-day MA: 41,437; 150-day MA: 40,591; 200-day MA: 40,151 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (5917.11 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5218.49 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5557.29 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender is positive; MACD is negative – a close below 5850.21 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender is negative; MACD is positive – a close above 5936.01 triggers a buy signal We just discovered that Trump could dissolve the FBI with the stroke of a pen (Executive Order). Congress never passed a law to create it because many Congressmen feared it would become a secret police unit and abuse its power. The DoJ borrowed Secret Service agents when needed because it didn’t have an investigative group. After McKinley’s assassination in 1901, there was concern that Secret Service agents were being stretched too thin. https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/fbi-founded The US DoJ: In 1908 Attorney General Charles Joseph Bonaparte issued an Order creating an investigative agency within the Department of Justice. The Order was confirmed in 1909 by Attorney General George W. Wickersham, who ordered the establishment of the Bureau of Investigation. The present name, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), was designated by Congress in 1935… https://www.justice.gov/archive/jmd/mps/2012/manual/fbi.htm Ex-US Ambassador to Israel @DavidM_Friedman; The Biden team is now attempting to sneak through this anti-Israel, anti-hostage resolution today at the UN Security Council, eerily reminiscent of when Obama betrayed Israel at the UN shortly after Trump defeated Clinton in 2016. Today, Biden is pushing Democrat senators to oppose Bernie Sanders’ “defund Israel” resolution, deflecting attention from his betrayal of Israel at the UN. Don’t be fooled and speak out! @J_Insider: The U.S. vetoed a Security Council resolution that called for an “immediate, unconditional and permanent ceasefire” because it did not tie the demand to the release of the hostages held by Hamas. @RonDeSantis: California is still “counting” votes — and there are two congressional races where the leads enjoyed by GOP incumbents have been either eliminated or dramatically reduced long after Election Day. It is possible that Republicans lose one or both seats — making the House majority razor thin. California’s election system is a disgrace, and the state should follow Arizona’s lead, recognize the need for an overhaul and enact transparent reforms. Sky News’ @haynesdeborah: The UK will scrap five warships, dozens of military helicopters and a fleet of drones to save money despite growing threats from Russia and a war raging in Europe. John Healey, the defence secretary, announced the dramatic move in parliament on Wednesday, saying it would save up to half a billion pounds over the next five years. The defence secretary described the equipment being axed as “outdated” and said the “common sense” decision to retire them was long overdue. He signalled the decision was part of a plan to restructure and modernise the armed forces, which have already been significantly reduced in size following decades of cost-saving cuts, with new capabilities due to come on line to replace the gaps. @QuantusInsights: Demographic Shifts Are Redrawing U.S. Political Power Dem states losing seats in 2030 reapportionment: -California: -4 -New York: -3 -Illinois: -2 -Oregon, Minnesota, Rhode Island: -1 each GOP-leaning states gaining: -Texas: +3 -Florida: +2 -Georgia, N. Carolina, S. Carolina, Tennessee: +1 each Population moving South/West = big changes for Congress & the Electoral College. House Speaker Johnson: All single-sex facilities in the Capitol and House Office Buildings — such as restrooms, changing rooms, and locker rooms — are reserved for individuals of that biological sex. @RepNancyMace: Your mental illness will not become my new normal. @TCNetwork: Are pornography and dating sites weaponized by intel agencies to use as blackmail against politicians? Tucker reveals what a credible source told him about the subject: “A long-time intel official told me not that long ago… that the big pornography sites are controlled by the intel agencies, because they have access to the data on those sites… and I think the dating sites too. And the reason that they do, of course, is blackmail.” | |
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING
SEE YOU ON FRIDAY
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