NOV 27/LAST DAY BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE: GOLD CLOSED UP $18.05 TO $2639.70 WITH SILVER LOSING 25 CENTS TO $30.11//PLATINUM WAS UP $2.80 TO $930.40 WHILE PALLADIUM WAS DOWN $5.30 TO $979.10//EXCELLENT GOLD COMMENTARIES TONIGHT FROM ALASDAIR MACLEOD AND PETER SCHIFF//FASCINATING STORY OF NATO SHIPS SURROUNDING CHINESE SHIP SUSPECTED OF CUTTING SEA CABLES//HUGE GERMAN STEEL COMPANY THYSSEN KRUPP LAYING OFF 11,000 WORKERS AND THEY SEEM TO BE IN FINANCIAL TROUBLE//CHINESE REAL ESTATE BUBBLE SET TO BURST WITH MANY HUGE REAL ESTATE CONGLOMERATES ALREADY BLOWING UP//FRENCH BOND YIELDS RISE MUCH ABOVE GERMAN BUNDS CREATING PANIC IN THE FRENCH MARKETS//ISRAEL VS HEZBOLLAH: CEASEFIRE HOLDS//MANY UPDATES ON THIS MAJOR TOPIC//NOW HAMAS DESIRES A CEASEFIRE WITH ISRAEL//COVID UPDATES/VACCINE INJURY REPORT/ MARK CRISPIN MILLER//DR PAUL ALEXANDER//SLAY NEWS ETC//CANADA FURIOUS WITH TRUMP’S 25% TARIFF AND MAY RETALIATE//COMMENTARY TONIGHT FROM BRANDON SMITH ON THE RUSSIA VS UKRAINE VS USA WAR//UPDATES ON RUSSIA VS UKRAINE//MANY USA DATA RELEASES WITH THE BIG ONE: FED’S FAVOURITE INDICATOR FOR INFLATION RISING//SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT//
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 43 690 C ABN AMRO 5 737 C ADVANTAGE 36 905 C ADM 2
TOTAL: 43 43 MONTH TO DATE: 3,622
JPMorgan stopped 0/43
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR NOV/2024. CONTRACT: 43 NOTICES FOR 4300 OZ 0.1337 TONNES
total notices so far: 3622 contracts for 362,200 Oz (11.265 tonnes)
FOR NOV
SILVER NOTICES: 0 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR NIL OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 935 for 4.675 million oz
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END
GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD UP $18.05 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.25 AT THE SLV
NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 474.747 MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A MEGA GIGANTIC SIZED 4705 CONTRACTS TO 134,590 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR SMALL GAIN OF $0.10 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 4055 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.10 IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON TUESDAY COMEX TRADING (COUPLED WITH LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS) AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND THEY FAILED ON TUESDAY WITH SILVER’S RISE.
WE HAD A STRONG 650 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 999 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN TODAY’S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING (ESPECIALLY TODAY) TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4055 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY’S COMEX SESSION ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX BUT THAT ENDED MONDAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 999 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.10) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS WE DID HAVE A SMALL GAIN JN PRICE
WE HAD A STRONG 650 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 2.810 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 4.750 MILLION OZ
// STANDING FOR SILVER//NOV AT 4.750 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS (DESPITE MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION + MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION)//STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 999 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: ADDED A SMALL 37 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF NOV
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 20DAYS, total 22,219 contracts: OR 111.095 MILLION OZ (1110 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 111.095 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 111.085 MILLION OZ (WILL BE HUGE THIS MONTH)
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4705 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.10 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//TUESDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A HUGE EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 999 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR NOV OF 2.810 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 55,000 OZ QUEUE JUMP
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR NOV AT 4.730 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 4055 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUMONGOUS 999 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE TUESSDAY COMEX SESSION ALONG WITH CALENDAR SPREADER LIQUIDATION. THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON TUESDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS DESPITE THE MASSIVE LOSS IN PRICE MONDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE TUESDAY NIGHT (999) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 0 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 0.000 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A STRONG SIZED 78501 OI CONTRACTS TO 472,660 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A FAIR SIZED 814 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (8501 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $3.80 IN PRICE TUESDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR NOV AT 2.488 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP. BUT WE HAD ANOTHER OF THAT CRAZY ISSUANCE OF 1500 CONTRACTS ISSUED TUESDAY NIGHT FOR DELIVERY OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 4.665 TONNES OF GOLD TO WHICH WE ADD 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED ON AN EXCHANGE FOR RISK ON NOV 15.//NEW STANDING ADVANCES TO 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES (EX FOR RISK TUESDAY NIGHT+ 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 19.0425 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $3.80 IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A FAIR LOSS OF 3440 OI CONTRACTS (8.167 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE DAILY QUEUE JUMPING WE ARE WITNESSING (AND TODAY’S QUEUE JUMP OF 4300 OZ)
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 5061 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 472,660
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A FAIR SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3440 CONTRACTS WITH 8501 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 5061 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 3440 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A STRONG SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1531 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE TUESDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY. THEY FAILED MISERABLY ON FRIDAY WITH GOLD’S PRICE RISE ABOVE THE $2700 PRICE LEVEL BUT SUCCEEDED MONDAY ON COMEX OPTIONS EXPIRY TO RAID GOLD. THEY FAILED MISERABLY TUESDAY.
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (5061 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 7687 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 3440 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR NOV 2.488 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 4300 OZ QUEUE JUMP BUT WE MUST ADD THE NEW AND CRIMINAL ISSUANCE OF 1500 CONTRACTS OF EX. FOR RISK ISSUED TUESDAY NIGHT WHERE BY THE BUYER ASSUMES RISK FROM THE SELLER THAT THAT CONTRACT WOULD BE DELIVERED TO HIM. WHAT A JOKE! TOTAL EXCHANGE FOR RISK =150,000 OZ OR 4.665 TONNES. FROM THAT WE MUST ADD 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED FOR EX. FOR RISK ON NOV 15.
//NEW STANDING NOVEMBER: 11.265 TONNES +4.665 EX FOR RISK TUESDAY + 3.11 TONES EX FOR RISK//PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES.
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE RISE PM TUESDAY WITH NO SUCCESS AS WE HAD A SMALL $3.80 PRICE GAIN . WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED MONDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) STRONG ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1531 T.A.S.CONTRACTS
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
NOV
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF NOV :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 118,431 CONTRACTS OF 1,1843,100 OZ OR 368.370 TONNES IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 5921 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 20 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 368.370 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 368.30 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 10.36% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 368.30 TONNES (WILL PROBABLY BE A HUGE MONTH/MAYBE A RECORD ISSUANCE MONTH///NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED AND CLOSING IN ON THE SECOND HIGHEST RECORDED ISSUANCE..//HIGHEST EVER RECORDED ISSUANCE MARCH 2022 OF 409 TONNES.)
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MONSTER SIZED 4705 CONTRACTS OI TO 134,553 AND CLOSER TO THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 650 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 650 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 1025 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 4705 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 650 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MONSTER SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4055 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 20.275 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.10 GAIN IN PRICE
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
WEDNESDAY MORNING TUESDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.02 PTS OR 1.53%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 443.93 PTS OR 2.32%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 307.03 OR 0.80%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.55%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2411 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2569// Oil DOWN TO 69.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A HUGE SIZED8501 CONTRACTS TO 472,660 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.80 WITH RESPECT TO TUESDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST A NEGLIGIBLE NET IN NUMBER LONGS AS WE HAD A SMALL PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW. WE HAD A HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (5061).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY’S HUGE LOSS IN PRICE. WE LOST ALSO A HUGE NUMBER OF CONTRACTS TUESDAY AS WELL. WE HAD A HUGE TA.S. LIQUIDATION COUPLED WITH A CONTINUAL HUGE MONTH END LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS WHICH IS WHY WE LOST SO MANY COMEX OI CONTRACTS. SOME OF THE REMAINING LONGS REMAIN STICKY AS THEIR AIM IS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL GOLD NOT WORRYING TOO MUCH ON RAIDS.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 200 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD. THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY TUESDAY.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN TODAY.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A HUGE SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A HUGE SIZED 5061 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 5061 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 5061 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A FAIR SIZED TOTAL OF 3,440 CONTRACTS IN THAT 5061 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 7687 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS EVERY LARGE LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $3.80 TUESDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE. HOWEVER I AM EXTREMELY SAD TO REPORT THAT THE CROOKS ISSUED FOR THE SECOND TIME THIS MONTH A STUPID EXCHANGE FOR RISK OF A GIANT 1,500 CONTRACTS TO GO ALONG WITH THE NOV 15 ISSUANCE. IN THIS ISSUANCE A BUYER IS TAKING THE RISK THAT THEY WILL DELIVER TO HIM 4.665 TONNES (TODAY’S ISSUANCE) OF GOLD AND WE MUST ADD THE 3.110 TONNES OF GOLD (311,000 OZ) PURCHASE ON NOV 15. WE WISH THE BUYER ALL THE LUCK IN THE WORLD. TOTAL ISSUANCE THIS MONTH OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK: 2500 OI CONTRACTS FOR 250,000 OZ OR 7.7760 TONNES. I AM AFRAID THAT THE COMEX HOUSE IS BURNING DOWN!
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR TUESDAY WAS A NORMAL SIZED SIZED 1531 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN MONDAY’S RAID. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: NOV (19.0425 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR NON ACTIVE NOV DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $3.80/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A GAIN IN PRICE WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WE DID HAVE SOME T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION TUESDAY AND THIS WAS MAGNIFIED WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A NORMAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 10.699 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR NOV (2.488TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S GOOD SIZED QUEUE JUMP OF 43 CONTRACTS OR 4300 OZ (0.1337 TONNES). THESE GUYS UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP BOLTING AHEAD OF OTHER LONGS TO OBTAIN BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL GOLD. MOSTLY LIKELY THIS IS THE FRBNY DESPERATELY TRYING TO EXTINGUISH ITS MASSIVE PHYSICAL SHORT FALL OF 93 TONNES. HOWEVER WE MUST ADD THAT CRAZY “DELIVERY” OF 1500 CONTRACTS OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK OR 150,000 OZ OR 4.665 TONNES OF GOLD ISSUED ON TUESDAY NIGHT. AND THEN WE MUST ADD THE NOV 15 ISSUANCE OF 3.11 TONNES OF GOLD THROUGH ITS EXCHANGE FOR RISK.
//NEW STANDING FOR NOV 11.265 TONNES + 4.665 TONNES EX FOR RISK (TUESDAY NIGHT) + 3.11 TONNES EX FOR RISK/ PRIOR= 19.0425 TONNESES
NEW STANDING FOR NOVEMBER: 19.0425TONNES (WHICH FOR A NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $3.80
WE HAD X814 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 2626 CONTRACTS OR 262600 OZ (8.167 TONNES)
(consists of: 112,498.794 oz Asahi and 98,046.325 oz JPMorgan Enhanced bars or 245 400 oz bars.)
No of oz served (contracts) today
43 notice(s) 4300 OZ 0.1377TONNES
No of oz to be served (notices)
0 contracts 0 OZ 0.0 TONNES
Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month
3622 notices 362200 oz 11.265 TONNES
Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month
x
dealer deposits: 1
i) Into Brinks 32,427.23 oz
total dealer deposits: 32,427.23 oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits 0 oz
withdrawals: 1
Out of Brinks: 32.151 oz one kilobar
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 32.151 oz
adjustments: 3
a)Brinks/dealer to customer:
13,274.549 oz
b)Loomis: dealer to customer: 63,948.379 oz
c)Malca; dealer to customer 4,147.479
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.
For the front month of NOV: we have an oi of 43 contracts having LOST 813 contracts. We had 856 contracts served on TUESDAY so we gained A STRONG 43 contracts as these guys underwent a queue jump of 4300 oz (0.1377 TONNES OF GOLD) to which we add the 4.665 tonnes of exchange for risk delivery/TUESDAY AND THEN ADD THE 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/NOV 15
DECEMBER, THE BIGGEST DELIVERY MONTH LOST 40,267 CONTRACTS TO 35,615.. WE HAVE 1 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE FRIDAY NOV 29, THE OPEN INTEREST DESPITE THE HUGE TAS LIQUIDATION IS STILL HIGH AND THUS WE WILL NO DOUBT HAVE A HUGE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DELIVERY WHEN I RECEIVE WEDNESDAY’S NIGHT FINAL OI READING WHICH WILL REVEAL THE INITITAL AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR THE LARGEST DELIVERY MONTH FOR COMEX, THE DECEMBER CONTRACT MONTH.
JANUARY GAINED 1084 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2137
FEBRUARY GAINED 28,837 CONTRACTS TO 341,805 .
We had 43 contracts filed for today representing 4300 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 0 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 43 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 0 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for NOV /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (3622 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV(43 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (43 x 100 oz per contract( equals 362,200 OZ OR 11.265 TONNES.+ to which we add 4.665 tonnes of exchange for risk delivery AND then add the 3.11 tonnes of exchange for risk//PRIOR //new totals 19.0425 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the NOV contract month: No of notices filed so far (3622 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of NOV (43 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (43 x 100 oz which equals 362,700 oz (11.265 TONNES) + 4.665 exchange for risk/Tuesday +3.11 tonnes (ex. for risk/PRIOR) = 19.0425
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR NOV.: 19.0425 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,789,832.141 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,928.752.528/// 246.66tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,861,079.613 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,175,041 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 192.06 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 111.737 tonnes and thus 30.24% of entire inventory.
END
SILVER/COMEX
NOV 27. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE NOV 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
Silver
Ounces
Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory
NIL oz
Withdrawals from Customer Inventory
1,202,626.920 oz
DELAWARE Loomis
.
Deposits to the Dealer Inventory
nil oz
Deposits to the Customer Inventory
1,318,891.400 oz Brinks Delaware
No of oz served today (contracts)
0 CONTRACT(S) (0 OZ)
No of oz to be served (notices)
00 contracts (0,000oz)
Total monthly oz silver served (contracts)
935 Contracts (4.675 MILLION oz)
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month
NIL oz
Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 2 customer deposits
i) Into Brinks: 1,315,189.900 oz
ii) Into Delaware: 2999.500 oz
total customer deposits 1,318.891.400 oz
We had 2 withdrawals
i) Out of Loomis: 1,198,726.870 oz
ii) Out of Delaware 3900.100 oz
total withdrawal 1,202,626.970 oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.876million or 43.52%
adjustment 1
Brinks/customer to dealer 2,159,,445.600 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 80.035MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.976 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR NOV
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF NOV /2024 OI: 11 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 1 CONTRACT
WE HAD 12 NOTICE(S) FILED ON TUESDAY SO WE GAINED 11 CONTRACTS OR 55,000 OZ UNDERWENT A QUEUE JUMP
DECEMBER SAW A LOSS OF 13,952 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 12,475 CONTRACTS. WE HAVE 1 MORE READING DAYS BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE. TAS ISSUANCE HAS BEEN HIGH ALL WEEK AND THUS IT IS STILL TOO DIFFICULT TO SAY HOW MANY WILL REMAIN TO STAND ON FIRST DAY NOTICE WITH TONIGHT’S FINAL READING.
JANUARY SAW A GAIN OF 583 CONTRACTS UP TO 2449
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 0 for 0.000 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON TUESDAY 109,297- huge// t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in NOV we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 935x 5,000 oz = 4.675 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of NOV (11) and the number of notices served upon today (0)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the NOV 2024 contract month: 935 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of NOV(11) number of notices served upon today minus (0)x 5000 oz of silver standing for the NOV contract month equates to 4.7300 MILLION OZ.
New total standing: 4.7300 million oz.
There are 77.825 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 879.41 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 474.747 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
Schiff Vs. Breedlove: Gold Will Thrive In A Digital Future
Last week, Peter participated in a ZeroHedge debate moderated by Keith Knight (who also interviewed Peter recently). He faced off against Bitcoin advocate Robert Breedlove on his show, “What is Money?” Peter and Robert discuss the future use cases of Bitcoin and gold, the philosophy and economics behind money, and what it would take for each other to change their minds and renounce their preferred sound money.
The effect of that [inflation] is that prices go up. It offsets the decline in prices that might otherwise have resulted from an efficient, growing, free-market economy, where the tendency is for prices to come down over time. Governments can rob people of those benefits by creating inflation. Inflation is not just how much prices go up, and that’s not just the result. It’s how much they might have otherwise gone down, had the government not created the inflation that caused them to go down less or to go up.
As they move into the debate, Peter presents the Austrian school of economics’ explanation for the origin of money. Notably, precious metals needed some non-monetary use before they were used as a medium of exchange:
Before money, people traded goods, but it was cumbersome because you needed a coincidence of needs. … But man eventually found out that they could have one commodity that could be used in exchange for all other commodities. And gold was basically the commodity that ended up being money. Other commodities have been money, and they can be money, but gold just fulfills that role very well for a lot of the properties that Bitcoin copied. … And what gives gold value is the fact that it’s a precious metal that we need because it, you know, it does a lot of things.
Peter contends that even if cryptocurrencies are eventually used as money, there’s no good reason to think Bitcoin will out-compete other coins, especially in the future:
There’s nothing unique about Bitcoin. You say Bitcoin is the only thing. There’s tens of thousands of other tokens that I could create, that have been created, that will be created. There is nothing special about Bitcoin that anybody else can’t copy or replicate.
All that it has is that it has more people who believe in it right now. You have more computer capacity behind it. But that could change.
The odds that anyone’s even going to care about Bitcoin in 10 years, I think, are pretty low.
The fervor around Bitcoin today is driven by speculation. Most retail investors in Bitcoin are not Bitcoin maximalists who actually expect it to function as a medium of exchange:
The main driver is speculation. In fact, the main buying right now for Bitcoin is coming from ETFs. … They’re buying it because they think the price of this ETF is going to go up.
It has got nothing to do with Bitcoin as money… It’s just that people are buying that particular speculative asset in their brokerage accounts instead of some other speculative asset because, for the moment, they think there’s upside.
Robert raises the problem of counterparty risk, which Bitcoin solves under some circumstances. Peter counters by pointing out counterparty risk is inherent in a market economy. Even Robert tolerates counterparty risk, and market forces tend to minimize its effect:
Your main problem then with gold … is you’re saying that you don’t trust the custodian. That the custodian is going to loan out or embezzle my gold, or they’re going to do something. And so gold can’t work in the electronic world of the future because you can’t trust counterparties, that we’re all criminals, and capitalism doesn’t really work in that respect because there’s no way to know who’s honest and who’s a crook. And you can’t trust counterparties. Let me ask you, Rob, do you have any insurance at all? Like life insurance, fire insurance, health insurance, auto insurance—do you have any insurance?
In Peter’s closing segment, he argues that future technology will enhance gold’s monetary properties rather than supplant them. Moving back to metals, not crypto, is the path forward:
Gold, you know, has worked for thousands of years, and the technology associated with digitization, the internet, and computers doesn’t make gold obsolete or diminish its role in any way. In fact, it makes gold perform all of the functions it has performed so successfully over the centuries that much better. Rather than trying to reinvent the wheel and getting people to think, ‘Oh, let’s just create this new money out of thin air and pretend it has value,’ like Bitcoin, efforts and resources should be spent trying to move the world back to a gold standard and away from fiat money.
2. ALASDAIR MACLEOD/JIM RICKARDS/PAM AND RUSS MARTENS/ JAMES RICKARDS/ VON GREYERZ//GOLD AND SILVER COMMENTARY//BILL HOLTER:
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
Jan Nieuwenhuijs: Chinese central bank just bought 60 tonnes of gold secretly
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-11-26 14:11 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho Tuesday, November 26, 2024
The People’s Bank of China is covertly buying very large amounts of gold, adding upward pressure to a tense gold market.
An explosive cocktail of Western institutional investors and central banks in the East buying gold this year is making the gold price rise sharply. Interest rate cuts and geopolitical strain will sustain this bull marke
Last July I published an analysis proving how the Chinese central bank covertly buys gold in the London Bullion Market through bullion banks.
All “non-monetary” gold (privately owned metal) in China is traded over the Shanghai Gold Exchange. However, since the war in Ukraine began, there has been more supply in the Chinese market than sold through the SGE; the “surplus” reflects what the PBoC buys. …
Alasdair Macleod: U.S. dollar on a gold standard? Not if the gold is gone
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-11-26 14:52 Section: Daily Dispatches
2:53p ET Tuesday, November 26, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
Market analyst Alasdair Macleod’s commentary yesterday at his proprietary internet site at Substack, headlined “U.S. Dollar on a Gold Standard?,” seemed so compelling to your secretary/treasurer that he asked permission to share it with you, which Macleod has kindly granted, so it is appended.
Macleod’s insights may make you want to consider subscribing to his Substack letter, which comes out every few days. A seven-day free trial subscription is available. Rates are $10 per month or $120 per year. To subscribe, please visit:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc. CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
U.S. Dollar on a Gold Standard?
Judy Shelton recently proposed a long bond convertible into gold. She obviously believes in the integrity of U.S. gold reserves. I don’t.
By Alasdair Macleod Monday, November 25, 2024
Judy Shelton is a well-known sound-money advocate and former economic adviser to President Trump. This month she set everyone buzzing with a proposal to issue a new 50-year Treasury bond redeemable in gold. If her plan is to be followed through, it would not be gold convertibility for the dollar but merely an alternative to inflation-linked TIPS bonds.
We can argue about how things for the dollar would evolve from there and the likelihood that this would be the first step to a new gold standard for the dollar, but that is a separate debate. Anyway, dollar-centric Fed and Treasury officials would dismiss it as providing too much uncertainty to government financial obligations, because they would argue that gold is unpredictably volatile and they would not want to see a revived debate about its monetary role.
But there is a far greater problem in the background, and that is the integrity of the U.S. Treasury’s gold reserves. Do they actually exist, and, if so, to what extent?
And here we come back to the findings of analyst Frank Veneroso more thqan 20 years ago.
Famously, in a speech in Lima, Peru, in 2002, Veneroso wrote:
“Now we have a conservative set of gold lending numbers and we have a more aggressive set of such numbers. Our range of estimates implies that somewhere between 10,000 and 16,000 tonnes of the official-sector gold position has left those vaults by way of the lending process.”
The full speech can be found on GATA’s website here:
By the way, the higher figure is 50% of the official gold reserves reported (32,412.8 tonnes) when Veneroso spoke.
As a side note, Veneroso said he embarked on his analysis following a speech by Terry Smeeton, who he said was head of the Bank of England’s gold department. In fact, Smeeton was head of foreign exchange operations, which included gold. I got to know him in the late 1980s when we lunched together occasionally at the Banker’s Club, just behind the bank. And what Veneroso wrote about Smeeton I can confirm as being consistent with the man I knew.
Returning to our subject, from the end of Bretton Woods in 1971 the U.S. Treasury embarked on a policy of displacing gold with the dollar, a policy that involved virulent anti-gold propaganda and actions, like the birth of the gold carry trade, whereby central bank gold was leased or swapped for interest rates of 1%, sold for dollars, and invested in U.S. T-bills yielding considerably more.
T-bill rates declined from over 10% in the early ’80s to 4% in 1998.
As Veneroso put it, this leased and swapped gold ended up adorning the necks of Asian women and was never going to return.
Accounting for this was simple.
Replacing the lease or swap agreement would be a debt obligation on the part of the lessee in perpetuity, presumably at the official rate of $42.22 per ounce. Under the International Monetary Fund’s rules, the missing gold is accounted for as an asset in the Treasury’s (or central bank’s) reserves, even though it is not in possession.
Note the distinction.
And from the Banker’s Club in Lothbury, security trucks — often two or three at a time, moving gold back and forth from the bank’s rear entrance — could be observed most days of the week.
While the Bank of England continues to lease and swap gold (I believe more by book entry nowadays, rather than by delivery), there is no doubt that the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York Fed (which stores foreign central bank gold) are severely short of the physical, as was revealed when Germany’s Bundesbank asked for some of its gold back. Not only were BuBa officials not permitted to visit and audit their holdings supposedly held under earmark, but they were quoted seven years to return just a fraction of their property.
No, Ms. Shelton. It’s a nice idea but the gold isn’t there to back a long bond convertible into it.
We should know that U.S. officials lie and cheat when it comes to real, legal money. No surprise there.
But a more interesting question is the fate of all those open-ended commitments owed by operators like Goldman Sachs (which wasn’t a bank at the time but a trading operation). If these obligations are properly accounted for, not only are the U.S. Treasury and the Fed bust, but so too are members of the bullion banking community owing these obligations.
—–
Alasdair Macleod is of head of research for GoldMoney.
END
Ronan Manly: Dubai’s record-breaking 300-kg gold bar
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-11-26 20:06 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Ronan Manly Tuesday, November 26, 2024
In a city famous for setting records such as the world’s tallest building, the Burj Khalifa, a new record-breaking gold bar weighing an incredible 300 kilograms (9,600 troy ounces) has just been produced in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
At current gold prices, this 300-kg bar is valued at more than US$ 25 million.
Manufactured by Dubai-based Emirates Minting Facility LLC, the massive new gold bar was officially certified as record breaking by Guinness World Records on November 10 and officially unveiled at the Dubai Precious Metals Conference on November 19. …
Falling gold prices revive physical demand in key markets
Submitted by admin on Tue, 2024-11-26 23:22 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Polina Devitt and Rajendra Jadhav Reuters Tuesday, November 26, 2024
A drop in gold prices this month has drawn in buyers of the metal who had been waiting for the market’s lightning rally this year to subside, industry players and analysts said.
Spot gold prices hit a record $2,790.15 per troy ounce on Oct. 31, but are down some 4% so far in November in response to a Republican Party clean sweep in the U.S. election.
“Physical demand has picked up quite a bit since October and especially after the sharp November price drop as there has been a change in the market sentiment,” Robin Kolvenbach, co-CEO of Swiss-based refinery Argor-Heraeus, told Reuters. …
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 200 ANDREW MAGUIRE
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 199
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING WEDNESDAY MORNING/TUESDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.02 PTS OR 1.53%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 443.93 PTS OR 2.32%
// Nikkei CLOSED DOWN 307.03 OR 0.80%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.55%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2411 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2569// Oil DOWN TO 69.08 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 73.16 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL MOSTLY RED
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2521
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2569
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 50.02 PTS OR 1.53%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 443.93 PTS OR 2.32%
2. Nikkei closed DOWN 307.03 PTS OR 0.80%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL MOSTLY RED
USA dollar INDEX DOWN TO 106.34 EURO RISES TO 1.0533 UP 30 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: FALLS TO. +1.054 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 151.33…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold UP /JAPANESE Yen UP CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.1625 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.423 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.901
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 3.031
3j Gold at $2650.80 /Silver at: 30.42 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 7 AND 40/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 112.50
3m oil into the 69 dollar handle for WTI and 73 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 151.33 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.054% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8830 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9300 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.263 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.448 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.201 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.61…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.350 DOWN 5 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.271 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.117 DOWN 3 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Stock Futures Drop Ahead Of Data Barrage After Trump Unveils Trade Picks
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 08:22 AM
Futures are lower as markets digested Trump’s latest cabinet appointments and looked ahead to a barrage of macroeconomic data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday for clues on the outlook for interest rates. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.2% and MSFT -0.6%). Treasuries advanced, pushing the 10-year benchmark yield down by five basis points to 4.26% with a slew of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US data expected, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and an update on economic growth. The dollar fell versus all Group-of-10 peers amid month-end flows while the euro rose to a fresh day high after hawkish comments from ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel. Commodities are mixed with precious metals and oil higher, while base metals are lower. Today, the main macro focus will be PCE release and Durable/Cap Goods Orders.
Among individual premarket movers, Dell shares tumbles 12% as revenue generated by the company’s PC business declined 1% in the fiscal third quarter, falling short of estimates. Peer HP also slumped 8% after sales in its PC unit missed the average analyst estimate. Similar to its peer Dell, the firm flagged a delayed PC refresh cycle. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
Ambarella (AMBA) climbs 21% after the semiconductor device company issued a stronger-than-anticipated revenue forecast for the current quarter.
Autodesk (ADSK) slides 7% after the software company posted third-quarter adjusted operating margin that fell short of expectations.
CrowdStrike (CRWD) drops 3% after the cybersecurity firm’s issued a weaker-than-expected earnings forecast. The outlook disappointing investors who have been watching for signs that the company has recovered from a flawed update that crashed computers around the world.
Guess (GES) slides 11% after the clothing company cut its full year guidance.
Nutanix (NTNX) gains 5% after the infrastructure software company reported first-quarter results that beat expectations.
Symbotic (SYM) sinks 22% after filing to delay its 10-K report.
Urban Outfitters (URBN) jumps 12% after the clothing retailer reported stronger-than-expected quarterly sales growth. Citi upgraded the stock to buy.
Workday (WDAY) drops 11% after the software company provided a forecast that is seen as disappointing. Analysts noted that investor confidence will likely be affected by slowing subscription growth.
Trump’s tariffs agenda gathered further momentum, after the president-elect named Jamieson Greer as the US Trade Representative and Kevin Hassett to direct the National Economic Council. Greer was intimately involved in Trump’s first-term trade policy decisions.
“If we get close to a place where we are talking about across-the-board tariffs, I think that would be a wake-up call for risk assets, equities and credit alike,” Wei Li, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock Inc., said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “We’re risk-on for now, but things could change.”
Investors have plowed money into US stocks this year, with inflows on course for a record and have been rewarded with a gain of 26% in the S&P 500, vindicating bets on American exceptionalism. European stocks are trading at a record 40% discount to the S&P 500 with the region’s benchmark gauge up just 5% this year. That divergence is making global stock market performance ever more polarized and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon, JPMorgan’s strategist Mislav Matejka wrote.
European stocks fall for a second day as traders trim their ECB interest rate cut bets after Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel warned against lowering borrowing costs too far. The Stoxx 600 is down 0.3% with underperformance in auto shares suggesting tariff risks from the US are also still providing a drag. In France, a measure of risk on the country’s bonds rose to levels last seen during the euro-area debt crisis as a political standoff over the budget threatens to bring down the government. The market nerves reflect investor concerns over Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s ability to pass a budget for next year. French bank stocks underperform following the country’s political standoff over budget. Real estate and mining stocks are the strongest-performing sectors. Among individual stocks, EasyJet gains as the airline proposed to more than double its dividend payout for this year amid robust demand for its holiday package offerings. Here are some of the most notable premarket movers:
Henkel shares climb as much as 4.1% after the chemicals company was upgraded by analysts at JPMorgan, highlighting the stock trades at a sizable discount to peers despite a rebound in earnings this year.
Anglo American shares rise as much as 2.9% in London after the miner raised 9.6 billion rand ($530 million) from the sale of a 6.6% stake in Anglo American Platinum, a move aimed at increasing the South African unit’s free float ahead of a full exit.
Ackermans & Van Haaren shares gain as much as 3.1%, rallying from an almost three-month low closing price yesterday, as Berenberg slightly lifts its Street-high target on the Belgian industrial holding company.
EasyJet shares rise as much as 4.4% to the highest intraday level since April. The travel company more than doubled its annual dividend on the back of a strong demand outlook for next year.
Idorsia shares soar as much as 28% after announcing talks with an undisclosed party for the global rights to its aprocitentan (Tryvio) drug. The deal would result in a fee of $35 million.
French bank stocks fall as the risk premium for the country’s government bonds soared to 2012 highs amid a political standoff over the budget, which threatens to bring down the government.
Grifols shares slide as much as 11% after Bloomberg reported that Brookfield Asset Management is preparing to walk away from a plan to acquire the Spanish drug maker over disagreements on valuation.
CD Projekt shares drops as much as 3.9% in early trading as 3Q earnings triggered profit taking after strong gains on stock seen in last days.
Frontline shares fall as much as 12% after the Oslo-listed crude-oil shipper reported 3Q earnings described by DNB as soft on account of a weak 4Q outlook that’s likely to lead to estimate cuts.
Johnson Matthey shares drop as much as 7%, to the lowest since July 2009, following results from the British specialty chemicals firm which analysts see as mixed.
Elekta shares fall as much as 7.8% after the Swedish medical technology firm’s 2Q report fell short of expectations on most key metrics. While guidance was reiterated, it requires a big effort from the company in its 2H, analysts note.
Pets at Home shares slump as much as 9.8% to the lowest level since July 2020 after the company warned that the pet retail market will remain subdued for the rest of the financial year.
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained as Chinese shares rebounded after a recent rout, while traders continued to digest the potential impact of US president-elect Donald Trump’s policy plans. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.5%, lifted by Chinese tech giants such as Tencent and Meituan. An index of Chinese stocks in Hong Kong gained 2.6% amid speculation that authorities will unveil more stimulus at key meetings that are expected to take place next month. Elsewhere, stocks dropped in Japan and Taiwan, while Australia and New Zealand saw gains. Korean chipmaker stocks fell after one of Trump’s picks to lead the Department of Government Efficiency called Chips Act subsidies to the industry “wasteful.” Japanese automakers extended declines as the yen strengthened and after US peers fell on Trump’s tariff threats.
In rates, treasuries climb, with US 10-year yields falling 4 bps to 4.27%. Gilts and bunds also gain, although the Schnabel comments did dent German shorter-dated bonds while lifting the euro. French bond spreads widen again, hitting a yield gap to Bunds of 89bps, the widest since the 2012 European debt crisis as a political standoff over the budget threatens to bring down the government. The market nerves reflect investor concerns over Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s ability to pass a budget for next year. Back to Treasuries which hold most of their advance that sent yields toward the low end of two-week ranges, led by UK bond market, the outperformer in core European rates so far. Rally precedes a packed slate of US economic data including 3Q GDP revision, weekly jobless claims and PCE price indexes. A $44 billion 7-year note auction at 11:30am New York time concludes this week’s Treasury supply cycle, which has been well received.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar index fell to the lowest this week, snapping a rally that’s propelled eight straight weeks of gains through Friday. The dollar is seen as one of the biggest beneficiaries of Trump’s pro-growth agenda. The euro rose after ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel warned against cutting interest rates too far. The currency has been singled out as one of the most vulnerable to Trump’s tariff agenda by strategists at Goldman, JPMorgan and Citigroup. The yen tops the G-10 FX leader board, rising 1.1% against the greenback and pulling USD/JPY down to 151.40. The kiwi dollar is not far behind even after the RBNZ cut rates by 50 bps.
In commodities, oil prices advanced as traders monitor the cease-fire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. WTI is up 0.3% at $69 a barrel. Middle East tensions abated somewhat as President Joe Biden said Israel reached a cease-fire deal with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah after weeks of talks mediated by the US. Spot gold adds $15 to $2,648/oz. Bitcoin rises above $93,000.
The US economic data calendar is busy and includes second estimate of 3Q GDP, October durable goods orders and weekly jobless claims (8:30am), November MNI Chicago PMI (9:45am, several minutes earlier for subscribers), October personal income/spending with PCE price indexes and October pending home sales (10am). The Fed speaker slate blank.
Market Snapshot
S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,026.00
STOXX Europe 600 down 0.4% to 503.87
MXAP up 0.4% to 183.22
MXAPJ up 0.5% to 579.48
Nikkei down 0.8% to 38,134.97
Topix down 0.9% to 2,665.34
Hang Seng Index up 2.3% to 19,603.13
Shanghai Composite up 1.5% to 3,309.78
Sensex up 0.3% to 80,232.67
Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.6% to 8,406.67
Kospi down 0.7% to 2,503.06
German 10Y yield little changed at 2.15%
Euro up 0.2% to $1.0515
Brent Futures up 0.5% to $73.20/bbl
Gold spot up 0.7% to $2,650.62
US Dollar Index down 0.46% to 106.53
Top Overnight News
Chinese stocks rallied on Wed as investors speculate a critical upcoming gov’t meeting could result in more stimulus support as Beijing looks to mitigate the fallout from Trump 2.0 trade restrictions. BBG
China places its defense minister under investigation for corruption (this is the third consecutive serving or former defense minister to face an investigation), although the country’s foreign ministry denied the news. FT
Sales of foreign-branded smartphones, including Apple’s iPhone, in China fell 44.25% year-on-year in October, according to data from a government-affiliated research firm released on Wednesday. RTRS
New Zealand’s central bank slashed its policy rate by 50bp to 4.25%, a move widely anticipated by markets. WSJ
The ECB needs to be wary of cutting interest rates too far as borrowing costs are already near a level that no longer restrains the economy and going lower could backfire, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel. BBG
Trump is preparing to eliminate funding to cities that fail to participate in deportations of undocumented immigrants (he tried to do so in his first term but ran into myriad obstacles). WaPo
Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah struck a ceasefire agreement on Tues, a move Biden said he hoped would yield a similar settlement w/Hamas in Gaza. NYT
Business leaders aren’t panicking over Trump’s tariff threats as many consider to be simply a starting point for negotiations rather than the articulation of a long-term policy. WaPo
Donald Trump’s tariffs agenda gained more momentum as the president-elect named Jamieson Greer, a longtime protégé of Robert Lighthizer, as the US trade representative. Kevin Hassett was picked to direct the National Economic Council, a post that doesn’t require Senate confirmation. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks were mixed following a somewhat similar performance stateside where the S&P 500 and DJIA posted fresh record highs but the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed amid higher yields owing to Trump’s recent tariff threat. ASX 200 traded higher with strength in gold, consumer discretionary, tech and financial stocks, while mixed data releases also provided some encouragement as monthly CPI printed softer-than-expected, whilst the trimmed mean metric rose and Q3 Construction Work Done topped forecasts. Nikkei 225 underperformed amid a firmer currency and with money markets leaning towards a hike by the BoJ next month. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive albeit with gains capped by a lack of major catalysts and as Industrial Profits data continued to show a double-digit percentage drop Y/Y for October although was not as steep as the prior month’s decline.
Top Asian News
Leaked BYD Letter Signals China EV Price War Is Set to Intensify
Asian Stocks Rise as Chinese Shares Rebound on Stimulus Hopes
Seoul Hit By Highest Snowfall in Over 100 years Causing Chaos
Pony AI Is Said to Raise $260 Million in US IPO Priced at Top
Vietnam Mogul Told to Refund Missing Billions to Save Her Life
Yen Erases Post-US Election Drop and Hedging Costs Pick Up
Volkswagen Sells Xinjiang Sites to Exit Controversial Region
Prabowo Pick Trails in Jakarta Governor Race in Blow for Leader
European equities are on the backfoot, Stoxx 600 -0.4%, from a macro perspective the main update for the region has come via hawkish comments by ECB’s Schnabel. Sectors are mixed: outperformance in Personal Care, Drug and Grocery names, whilst a pullback in yields has benefitted the Real Estate sector. Tech hit with SAP pressured after Workday numbers. US equity futures are showing a modest reversal of Tuesday’s price action where small-caps lagged peers, ES -0.3%, RTY +0.6%. Focus is very much looking ahead to the day’s raft of tier 1 US data points. US updates from Dell Technologies (-12.6%), HP (-10%), ADSK (-6.3%), CRWD (-5.7%) & Workday (-10%) in focus among others. CAICT says shipments of smartphones in China were up +1.8% Y/Y in October at 29.67mln (prev. -25.7% Y/Y in September). Domestic Chinese brands shipped 18.55mln phones in October (79% of the total), while foreign brands shipped 4.903mln units (-28.7% Y/Y). Shipments of foreign branded phones including Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones within China were down 55.75% Y/Y in October (prev. -39.8% Y/Y), according to Reuters calculations.
Top European News
BoE’s Lombardelli said US tariffs would pose a risk to UK economic growth and it is unclear what impact tariffs would have on UK inflation, while she added that a tight UK labour market remains a problem and is worried that services inflation remains above pre-COVID levels.
ECB’s Schnabel says she sees only limited room for further rate cuts, via Bloomberg; estimated range for the neutral rate is 2-3%. Can gradually move rates to neutral, not lower. Shouldn’t go accommodative on rates. Strong preference for a gradual approach. Need to see services inflation come down. Impact of past tightening fading visibly. May not be so far from neutral rates. Economy is stagnating, no recession risk.
FX
JPY outperforms with USD/JPY down to a 151.23 trough as traders continue to position for a BoJ rate hike next month following the recent fiscal stimulus announcement by the Japanese government.
As such, the USD has been hampered with the DXY slipping further on the 106.00 handle and down to a 106.33 base thus far. Docket ahead packed given Thanksgiving adjustments to the data schedule.
EUR firmer, benefitting from general USD downside and bolstered by hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel. Single currency as high as 1.0540, having climbed significantly an overnight 1.0474 base.
Fundamentals light out of the UK, GBP benefitting from the above USD action and is holding ground against the EUR for the most part thus far.
NZD a close second to JPY as it stands in terms of best performers, following the RBNZ’s 50bps cut which while as expected saw the unwinding of some outside bets for a 75bps move. NZD topped out at 0.59 vs the USD.
Fixed Income
Benchmarks in the green. Spent the first part of the European morning at highs though pulled back modestly on hawkish Schnabel commentary. Since, back towards best as the risk tone continues to deteriorate.
USTs towards their 110-21+ peak, pulled back modestly on Schnabel but only briefly. Docket ahead is packed with PCE the highlight, and will help to inform the view into December’s FOMC, with markets leaning towards a 25bps cut (60% chance) vs unchanged (40% chance) into the releases.
Bunds came under pressure on a set of particularly hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel; in particular, her remark on not going below the estimated 2-3% neutral rate is at odds with market pricing.
OATs near the unchanged mark with focus on the domestic political situation after PM Barnier’s remarks around “serious turbulence on financial markets” if the gov’t collapses; as such, the OAT-Bund yield spread has hit 90bps, its highest since 2012.
Gilts outperform, unaffected by Schnabel, specifics for the UK have been light thus far with the docket ahead also sparse.
Commodities
Crude modestly firmer in narrow ranges and well within familiar territory awaiting updates around the ceasefire, US data and OPEC+. Holding around USD 69/bbl and USD 73/bbl respectively for WTI and Brent.
Gold has gleaned support from the tepid risk tone, which has been deteriorating throughout the morning, and softer USD. As such, XAU is at a USD 2653/oz peak with resistance ahead at USD 2673/oz from November 21st.
Base metals in the green, despite the tepid tone, action which comes as the complex bounces back from Tuesday’s pressure. Thus far, this has taken the likes of 3M LME Copper back to yesterday’s best but shy of the USD 9.1k from Monday.
Russia may lift the ban on gasoline exports from refineries for two months from December 1st to January 31st, according to Kommersant citing sources.
Citi Research said its base case is for OPEC+ to delay the unwind of output cuts by a quarter to April 2025.
JPMorgan forecasts Henry Hub prices at USD 3.50/MMBtu; TTF at EUR 41.75/MWh. Sees NatGas production likely to grow 3bcf/day in 2025 and again in 2026.
Geopolitics
Hamas says it is ready for truce in Gaza after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, according to journalist Guy Elster.
Israel conducted a series of raids on the town of Naqoura in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah announced targeting “sensitive” military sites in Tel Aviv with a swarm of drones in the hours prior to the ceasefire.
Streams of cars headed to southern Lebanon after the ceasefire came into force, according to Reuters.
US senior official said they must all focus on making sure Iran does not continue to use Syria as a highway for weapons into Lebanon.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it welcomes the ceasefire in Lebanon and emphasises the responsibility of the international community in effectively pressuring Israel to stop the war in Gaza.
Syrian state agency reported six people died including two soldiers in an Israeli attack on border crossings between Syria and Lebanon in the Homs countryside.
Russia’s new missile fired at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last week carried warheads without explosives causing limited damage, according to Reuters citing sources.
US Event Calendar
07:00: Nov. MBA Mortgage Applications 6.3%, prior 1.7%
08:30: 3Q GDP Annualized QoQ, est. 2.8%, prior 2.8%
3Q Personal Consumption, est. 3.7%, prior 3.7%
3Q GDP Price Index, est. 1.8%, prior 1.8%
3Q Core PCE Price Index QoQ, est. 2.2%, prior 2.2%
08:30: Oct. Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.5%, prior -0.7%
Oct. Durables Less Transportation, est. 0.1%, prior 0.5%
Oct. Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior -0.1%
Oct. Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.1%, prior 0.7%
08:30: Oct. Retail Inventories MoM, est. 0.5%, prior 0.8%
Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.1%, prior -0.2%
08:30: Nov. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 215,000, prior 213,000
Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.89m, prior 1.91m
09:45: Nov. MNI Chicago PMI, est. 45.0, prior 41.6
10:00: Oct. Personal Spending, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%
Oct. Personal Income, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
10:00: Oct. PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.2%
Oct. PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.3%, prior 2.1%
Oct. Core PCE Price Index MoM, est. 0.3%, prior 0.3%
Oct. Core PCE Price Index YoY, est. 2.8%, prior 2.7%
Oct. Real Personal Spending, est. 0.2%, prior 0.4%
10:00: Oct. Pending Home Sales (MoM), est. -2.0%, prior 7.4%
Oct. Pending Home Sales YoY, est. 0.2%, prior 2.2%
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
As the title of our World Outlook suggests, one of the main themes for 2025 will be how President-elect Trump prioritises his various policies. Indeed since we published, that’s become a little clearer for markets given the announcement of additional tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China we discussed yesterday. As a reminder, Trump said on the Truth Social platform that he’d put 10% tariffs on China, above any additional tariffs, along with 25% on Canada and Mexico on all products. And that led to a very clear reaction yesterday, with the Canadian dollar (-0.58% vs USD) as the worst-performing G10 currency, whilst the Mexican Peso was also down -1.82%. Similarly, the stock markets in the affected countries also underperformed, with Mexico’s S&P/BMV IPC down -0.93% even if Canada’s S&P/TSX Composite recovered to just make it to +0.01% after being down -0.48% initially after trading started.
Such tariffs would also have implications for the US though with our economists yesterday estimating that US core PCE inflation for 2025 could increase from 2.6% to 3.7% if fully implemented (link here), albeit with uncertain passthrough assumption that they go through. Before Trump’s victory the assumption was for 2.3% inflation in 2025. On that topic remember that today sees the latest monthly core PCE inflation print with DB expecting +0.29% vs. +0.25% last month. This would take the YoY rate to 2.81% from 2.65%.
Back to the tariffs, clearly at one end of the scale we don’t know how much of the rhetoric is a negotiating tactic, but at the other end we don’t know how other countries might retaliate if it’s not, particularly if that leads to a global trade war. For instance, Mexican President Sheinbaum said yesterday that “one tariff will come in response to another, and so on until we put shared companies at risk”. And we know from both the first Trump and the Biden administrations that others have been willing to react against protectionist policies, so this is set to be a very important part of the outlook for 2025 and beyond. Overnight Trump has nominated Jamieson Greer for the role of Trade Representative which confirms the direction of travel as he served as Chief of Staff under Lighthizer who had the job in Trump’s first administration. He also announced Kevin Hassett to lead the National Economic Council. During the last Trump administration, Hassett was a senior adviser to Trump and the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. He has backed the President-elect’s tariffs proposals in the past.
Despite the tariff threats, US equities held up fairly well yesterday, with the S&P 500 (+0.57%) advancing for a 7th consecutive session as US exceptionalism continued. That said, those companies more exposed to trade saw a clear underperformance. For instance, the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index (which includes companies publicly traded in the US where the majority of their business is in China) fell -0.84%, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was also down -1.21%. Similarly in Europe, the STOXX 600 saw a -0.57% fall, but the automobiles and parts component was down by a larger -1.71%.
One factor that supported US equities yesterday was strong data releases. For instance, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure was up to a 16-month high of 111.7 in November, whilst the expectations component was up to its highest in nearly 3 years, at 92.3. Moreover, there was also an improvement in their labour market indicators, with the gap between those saying jobs were plentiful and hard to get widening for a second month running.
The FOMC minutes from the November 6-7 meeting showed that committee members thought that “ with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2% and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time.” “Many” officials noted that ongoing uncertainty around what the neutral rate should be, “made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually.” That represented an increase after the previous minutes referenced “some” officials. The staff upgraded both growth and inflation forecasts from the prior meeting, this can also be seen from fewer members being concerned with the risk of growth slowing. Last meeting, “most remarked that the downside risks to employment had increased,” but this meeting, “some participants judged that downside risks to economic activity or the labor market had diminished.”
Overall, the minutes gave slightly more credence to a rate cut next month with fed futures now pricing a 63% chance. That’s the most in nearly two weeks. The 2yr yield fell (-3.7bps) into the close from an intraday high of 4.2932% just four minutes before the Fed minutes were released to close -1.2bps lower on the day. 10yr yields were less impacted by the Fed minutes, and finished +3.3bps higher on the day at 4.306% but are back around 4.29% in Asia this morning.
Whilst there’s still a question mark about whether the Fed cut rates in December, there’s little doubt among investors that the ECB will continue on the path downwards. That was confirmed yesterday by ECB Vice President de Guindos, who said in an interview published yesterday that if their projections were confirmed, “we will continue making our monetary policy stance less restrictive.” In light of that, yields on 10yr bunds fell back -2.3bps, but there was also a notable widening in spreads across the continent. For instance, the Franco-German 10yr spread moved up to 86.3bps, which is its highest level since 26 July 2012, the day that Mario Draghi delivered the famous “whatever it takes” speech.
A reminder that we have the passing of the French budget coming to a head in the next few weeks with some concern of a government shutdown if it’s not passed. See “Focus Europe: France Budget 2025: Tensions could mount as endgame approaches” (link here) for more. Last night, French Prime Minister Barnier warned that “there will probably be a rather serious storm and serious turbulences in financial markets” if there were to be a no-confidence vote when he presents the 2025 budget. This followed reports, which President’s office Macron later denied, that President Macron expected the government to dissolve.
Elsewhere, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced a cease-fire agreement with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with President Biden later confirming the ceasefire arrangement and stating that it would start at 4am local time. Brent crude oil prices fell -2.47% intraday around the news before grinding higher into the close to finish down -0.04% to $72.98/bbl yesterday following Prime Minister Netanyahu’s press conference announcing the cabinet vote.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning and trying to decipher all the tariff related stories. The Nikkei (-1.07%) and the KOSPI (-0.67%) are lower. Elsewhere, Chinese stocks are outperforming with the CSI (+0.64%) leading gains followed by the Shanghai Composite (+0.37%) and the Hang Seng (+0.36%). The S&P/ASX 200 (+0.57%) is also seeing decent gains. US stock futures are slightly lower.
In monetary policy action, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) lowered the cash rate by half a percentage point to 4.25%. It was the second straight cut of 50bps as the RBNZ seeks to revive the economy now that inflation is under control, making it one of the most aggressive cutters among its western peers. RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr indicated that another 50bps cut is coming in February if the economy evolves as expected.
Early morning data showed that Australia’s headline inflation rate remained well within the RBA’s target band in October, as the CPI was +2.1% higher than a year ago (v/s +2.3% expected), holding steady at its lowest level since July 2021. However, the trimmed mean, or underlying inflation rate, came in at 3.5%. In September, that measure was 3.2%.
Looking at yesterday’s other data, US new home sales in October were at their lowest since November 2022, at an annualised rate of 610k (vs. 725k expected). Separately, the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing index remained at -14 in November (vs. -11 expected).
To the day ahead now, and US data releases include the PCE data for October, the weekly initial jobless claims, the second estimate of Q3 GDP, and the preliminary reading of durable goods orders for October. Central bank speakers include the ECB’s Lane. Finally in the political sphere, the European Parliament will vote on whether to approve the new College of Commissioners.
2B) European report.
US futs mostly lower (RTY leads), USD outmuscled by JPY – Newsquawk US Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 06:01 AM
European equities on the back foot with hawkish remarks from Schnabel weighing, US futures mixed into a packed data docket
JPY outperforms with the NZD a close second after the RBNZ, EUR lifted by Schnabel; DXY pressured as such
Fixed benchmarks in the green and towards highs though Bunds were dented by ECB speak, OAT-Bund yield spread at its highest since 2012
Crude benchmarks are modestly firmer but in narrow ranges awaiting updates around the ceasefire, US data and OPEC+; metals moving higher
Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE (Oct), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (23 Nov, w/e), Durable Goods (Oct), Advance Goods Trade Balance (Oct), Comments from ECB’s Lane, US Supply.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
European equities are on the backfoot, Stoxx 600 -0.4%, from a macro perspective the main update for the region has come via hawkish comments by ECB’s Schnabel.
Sectors are mixed: outperformance in Personal Care, Drug and Grocery names, whilst a pullback in yields has benefitted the Real Estate sector. Tech hit with SAP pressured after Workday numbers.
US equity futures are showing a modest reversal of Tuesday’s price action where small-caps lagged peers, ES -0.3%, RTY +0.6%. Focus is very much looking ahead to the day’s raft of tier 1 US data points.
US updates from Dell Technologies (-12.6%), HP (-10%), ADSK (-6.3%), CRWD (-5.7%) & Workday (-10%) in focus among others.
CAICT says shipments of smartphones in China were up +1.8% Y/Y in October at 29.67mln (prev. -25.7% Y/Y in September). Domestic Chinese brands shipped 18.55mln phones in October (79% of the total), while foreign brands shipped 4.903mln units (-28.7% Y/Y). Shipments of foreign branded phones including Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones within China were down 55.75% Y/Y in October (prev. -39.8% Y/Y), according to Reuters calculations.
JPY outperforms with USD/JPY down to a 151.23 trough as traders continue to position for a BoJ rate hike next month following the recent fiscal stimulus announcement by the Japanese government.
As such, the USD has been hampered with the DXY slipping further on the 106.00 handle and down to a 106.33 base thus far. Docket ahead packed given Thanksgiving adjustments to the data schedule.
EUR firmer, benefitting from general USD downside and bolstered by hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel. Single currency as high as 1.0540, having climbed significantly an overnight 1.0474 base.
Fundamentals light out of the UK, GBP benefitting from the above USD action and is holding ground against the EUR for the most part thus far.
NZD a close second to JPY as it stands in terms of best performers, following the RBNZ’s 50bps cut which while as expected saw the unwinding of some outside bets for a 75bps move. NZD topped out at 0.59 vs the USD.
Benchmarks in the green. Spent the first part of the European morning at highs though pulled back modestly on hawkish Schnabel commentary. Since, back towards best as the risk tone continues to deteriorate.
USTs towards their 110-21+ peak, pulled back modestly on Schnabel but only briefly. Docket ahead is packed with PCE the highlight, and will help to inform the view into December’s FOMC, with markets leaning towards a 25bps cut (60% chance) vs unchanged (40% chance) into the releases.
Bunds came under pressure on a set of particularly hawkish remarks from ECB’s Schnabel; in particular, her remark on not going below the estimated 2-3% neutral rate is at odds with market pricing.
OATs near the unchanged mark with focus on the domestic political situation after PM Barnier’s remarks around “serious turbulence on financial markets” if the gov’t collapses; as such, the OAT-Bund yield spread has hit 90bps, its highest since 2012.
Gilts outperform, unaffected by Schnabel, specifics for the UK have been light thus far with the docket ahead also sparse.
Crude modestly firmer in narrow ranges and well within familiar territory awaiting updates around the ceasefire, US data and OPEC+. Holding around USD 69/bbl and USD 73/bbl respectively for WTI and Brent.
Gold has gleaned support from the tepid risk tone, which has been deteriorating throughout the morning, and softer USD. As such, XAU is at a USD 2653/oz peak with resistance ahead at USD 2673/oz from November 21st.
Base metals in the green, despite the tepid tone, action which comes as the complex bounces back from Tuesday’s pressure. Thus far, this has taken the likes of 3M LME Copper back to yesterday’s best but shy of the USD 9.1k from Monday.
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Dec) -23.3 vs. Exp. -18.6 (Prev. -18.3, Rev. -18.4)
French Consumer Confidence (Nov) 90.0 vs. Exp. 93.0 (Prev. 94.0, Rev. 93)
Swiss Investor Sentiment (Nov) -12.4 (Prev. -7.7)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
BoE’s Lombardelli said US tariffs would pose a risk to UK economic growth and it is unclear what impact tariffs would have on UK inflation, while she added that a tight UK labour market remains a problem and is worried that services inflation remains above pre-COVID levels.
ECB’s Schnabel says she sees only limited room for further rate cuts, via Bloomberg; estimated range for the neutral rate is 2-3%. Can gradually move rates to neutral, not lower. Shouldn’t go accommodative on rates. Strong preference for a gradual approach. Need to see services inflation come down. Impact of past tightening fading visibly. May not be so far from neutral rates. Economy is stagnating, no recession risk.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
US President-elect Trump picked Jamieson Greer for USTR and Kevin Hassett to head the National Economic Council.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Hamas says it is ready for truce in Gaza after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, according to journalist Guy Elster.
Israel conducted a series of raids on the town of Naqoura in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah announced targeting “sensitive” military sites in Tel Aviv with a swarm of drones in the hours prior to the ceasefire.
Streams of cars headed to southern Lebanon after the ceasefire came into force, according to Reuters.
US senior official said they must all focus on making sure Iran does not continue to use Syria as a highway for weapons into Lebanon.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it welcomes the ceasefire in Lebanon and emphasises the responsibility of the international community in effectively pressuring Israel to stop the war in Gaza.
Syrian state agency reported six people died including two soldiers in an Israeli attack on border crossings between Syria and Lebanon in the Homs countryside.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
Russia’s new missile fired at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last week carried warheads without explosives causing limited damage, according to Reuters citing sources.
CRYPTO
On the front foot, recouping some of the pressure seen in recent session and on track to snap the three-session streak of downside. However, BTC is yet to test/surpass the 94k mark having topped out at 93.9k thus far.
APAC TRADE
APAC stocks were mixed following a somewhat similar performance stateside where the S&P 500 and DJIA posted fresh record highs but the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed amid higher yields owing to Trump’s recent tariff threat.
ASX 200 traded higher with strength in gold, consumer discretionary, tech and financial stocks, while mixed data releases also provided some encouragement as monthly CPI printed softer-than-expected, whilst the trimmed mean metric rose and Q3 Construction Work Done topped forecasts.
Nikkei 225 underperformed amid a firmer currency and with money markets leaning towards a hike by the BoJ next month.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive albeit with gains capped by a lack of major catalysts and as Industrial Profits data continued to show a double-digit percentage drop Y/Y for October although was not as steep as the prior month’s decline.
RBNZ
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25%, as expected, while it said the OCR was lowered further as inflation returns to the target and expects to cut the OCR again early next year. RBNZ noted global economic growth is to remain subdued in the near term and economic activity is subdued but added that economic growth is expected to recover over 2025. Furthermore, the central bank lowered its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon with the March 2025 view at 4.07% (prev. 4.62%), December 2025 view at 3.55% (prev. 3.85%) and March 2026 view at 3.43% (prev. 3.62%).
RBNZ Governor Orr said during the post-meeting press conference ‘misnomer’ that projections show a slower pace of cuts and stated that projections are consistent with a 50bps cut in February depending on activity, while he added the track suggests a sharper reduction in the Cash Rate than projected in August leaves the door open to further 50bps cut in February. Orr also stated they did not discuss cutting by 75bps and there were no plans for a 25bps or 75bps cut today, as well as noted that they can rule out rates going up in the near-term because of tariffs which they are concerned about.
Australian Weighted CPI YY (Oct) 2.10% vs. Exp. 2.30% (Prev. 2.10%)
Australian CPI ANNL trimmed mean YY (Oct) 3.50% (Prev. 3.20%)
Australian Construction Work Done (Q3) 1.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 1.1%)
2C ASIAN REPORT
Lebanon ceasefire is in effect, RBNZ cut by 50bps & no surprises from FOMC Minutes – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 01:10 AM
APAC stocks were mixed after the S&P 500 and DJIA posted fresh record highs but the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed.
FOMC Minutes noted uncertainty over the neutral rate level makes it appropriate to reduce restraint gradually; some said the Fed could pause easing.
Israel’s cabinet approved the ceasefire deal with Lebanon; ceasefire has since gone into effect.
European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% on Tuesday.
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps, which was widely expected, although there were outside bets for a greater 75bps reduction.
DXY is steady below the 107 mark, NZD leads gains across the majors, JPY supported as BoJ hike expectations build.
Looking ahead, highlights include US PCE (Oct), GDP 2nd Estimate (Q3), PCE Prices Prelim (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (23 Nov, w/e), Durable Goods (Oct), Advance Goods Trade Balance (Oct), German GfK Consumer Sentiment (Dec), Comments from ECB’s Lane, US Supply.
2. Listen to this report in the market open podcast (available on Apple and Spotify)
3. Trial Newsquawk’s premium real-time audio news squawk box for 7 day
US TRADE
EQUITIES
US stocks were ultimately mixed in which the major indices gained and large caps outperformed driven by strength in Communications and Utilities, while Materials and Energy lagged and the small-cap Russell 2000 was pressured by a higher US yield environment in response to the latest tariff threat by US President-elect Trump on all products from Canada, Mexico and China.
SPX +0.57% at 6,022, NDX +0.57% at 20,923, DJIA +0.28% at 44,861, RUT -0.73% at 2,424.
FOMC Minutes noted that many said uncertainty over the neutral rate level makes it appropriate to reduce restraint gradually and participants anticipated it would be appropriate to move gradually towards a more neutral stance, while some said the Fed could pause easing and hold rates at restrictive levels if inflation remains elevated. However, some also said that easing could be accelerated if the labour market weakened or activity faltered, and almost all agreed that the risks to achieving dual mandate goals remain roughly in balance. Furthermore, participants continued to observe that inflation had eased substantially from its peak, although core inflation remained somewhat elevated.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
Fed’s Goolsbee (2025 Voter) said it makes sense to slow cuts as rates approach r-star, according to an Overshoot interview last week.
US President-elect Trump picked Jamieson Greer for USTR and Kevin Hassett to head the National Economic Council.
APAC TRADE
RBNZ
RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps to 4.25%, as expected, while it said the OCR was lowered further as inflation returns to the target and expects to cut the OCR again early next year. RBNZ noted global economic growth is to remain subdued in the near term and economic activity is subdued but added that economic growth is expected to recover over 2025. Furthermore, the central bank lowered its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon with the March 2025 view at 4.07% (prev. 4.62%), December 2025 view at 3.55% (prev. 3.85%) and March 2026 view at 3.43% (prev. 3.62%).
RBNZ Governor Orr said during the post-meeting press conference ‘misnomer’ that projections show a slower pace of cuts and stated that projections are consistent with a 50bps cut in February depending on activity, while he added the track suggests a sharper reduction in the Cash Rate than projected in August leaves the door open to further 50bps cut in February. Orr also stated they did not discuss cutting by 75bps and there were no plans for a 25bps or 75bps cut today, as well as noted that they can rule out rates going up in the near-term because of tariffs which they are concerned about.
EQUITIES
APAC stocks were mixed following a somewhat similar performance stateside where the S&P 500 and DJIA posted fresh record highs but the small-cap Russell 2000 underperformed amid higher yields owing to Trump’s recent tariff threat.
ASX 200 traded higher with strength in gold, consumer discretionary, tech and financial stocks, while mixed data releases also provided some encouragement as monthly CPI printed softer-than-expected, whilst the trimmed mean metric rose and Q3 Construction Work Done topped forecasts.
Nikkei 225 underperformed amid a firmer currency and with money markets leaning towards a hike by the BoJ next month.
Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were positive albeit with gains capped by a lack of major catalysts and as Industrial Profits data continued to show a double-digit percentage drop Y/Y for October although was not as steep as the prior month’s decline.
US equity futures (ES U/C) were rangebound ahead of a deluge of data releases later before tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Day holiday closure.
European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -0.3% after the cash market closed lower by 0.8% on Tuesday.
FX
DXY traded rangebound beneath the 107.00 level after softening yesterday and with no major fireworks from the FOMC Minutes which noted that many members said uncertainty over the neutral rate level makes it appropriate to reduce restraint gradually, while some said the Fed could pause easing and hold rates at restrictive levels if inflation remains elevated, although some also said easing could be accelerated if the labour market weakened or activity faltered.
EUR/USD was contained amid few catalysts for the single currency and after recent ECB rhetoric provided little incrementally.
GBP/USD lacked direction following the recent fluctuations and in the absence of any major data releases from the UK, while recent comments from BoE’s Pill and Lombardelli did little to shift the dial.
USD/JPY gradually extended on its recent declines beneath the 153.00 level with money markets pricing around a 60% chance for the BoJ to resume hiking rates at next month’s meeting.
Antipodeans were mixed as AUD/USD traded sideways following mixed data and with NZD/USD boosted after the RBNZ cut the OCR by 50bps, which was widely expected although there were outside bets for a greater 75bps reduction, while the central bank’s rate projection for the OCR in December 2025 was at 3.55% which was higher than what money markets are currently pricing.
FIXED INCOME
10yr UST futures kept afloat in muted trade after uneventful FOMC Minutes, while participants await US supply and a deluge of data.
Bund futures added to the prior day’s spoils and looked to retest resistance around the 134.00 level.
10yr JGB futures were lacklustre amid a quiet calendar and following weaker results from the latest 40yr JGB auction.
COMMODITIES
Crude futures lacked decisiveness after the prior day’s choppy mood with demand hampered as Israel and Hezbollah began a ceasefire, while the weekly private sector inventory data was mixed which showed a much larger-than-expected crude draw and a surprise build for gasoline.
US President-elect Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports does not exempt crude oil, according to Reuters citing sources.
Russia may lift the ban on gasoline exports from refineries for two months from December 1st to January 31st, according to Kommersant citing sources.
Citi Research said its base case is for OPEC+ to delay the unwind of output cuts by a quarter to April 2025.
Spot gold eked mild gains in rangebound trade after the dollar’s recent swings and ahead of a flurry of US data releases.
Copper futures regained some composure following yesterday’s fluctuations but with the upside capped amid the mixed risk appetite.
CRYPTO
Bitcoin mildly gained but with upside capped after failing to sustain a brief return above the USD 93,000 level.
DATA RECAP
Chinese Industrial Profits YY (Oct) -10.0% (Prev. -27.1%)
Chinese Industrial Profits YTD YY (Oct) -4.30% (Prev. -3.50%)
Australian Weighted CPI YY (Oct) 2.10% vs. Exp. 2.30% (Prev. 2.10%)
Australian CPI ANNL trimmed mean YY (Oct) 3.50% (Prev. 3.20%)
Australian Construction Work Done (Q3) 1.6% vs. Exp. 0.3% (Prev. 0.1%, Rev. 1.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
Hamas says it is ready for truce in Gaza after the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, according to journalist Guy Elster.
Israel’s cabinet approved the ceasefire deal with Lebanon in a 10-1 vote, while PM Netanyahu said they will return all citizens in the north to their homes and are determined to prevent Iran from having nuclear arms. Furthermore, Netanyahu said they have set Hezbollah back decades and if Hezbollah breaks the deal, they will strike at them, while he stated that a ceasefire deal now means they will focus on the Iranian threat.
US President Biden confirmed Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire deal with the deal to take effect at 04:00 local time on Wednesday (02:00GMT/21:00EST), while he stated over the next 60 days, the Lebanese army will take control of their own territory again and Israel will gradually withdraw and civilians will return home. Biden said there will be no US troops in southern Lebanon and the US will make another push over the coming days with Turkey, Qatar and others for a ceasefire in Gaza. Biden also stated the US remains ready to conclude historic deals with Saudi Arabia and it is possible for normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
Israel conducted a series of raids on the town of Naqoura in southern Lebanon and Hezbollah announced targeting “sensitive” military sites in Tel Aviv with a swarm of drones in the hours prior to the ceasefire.
Streams of cars headed to southern Lebanon after the ceasefire came into force, according to Reuters.
US senior official said they must all focus on making sure Iran does not continue to use Syria as a highway for weapons into Lebanon.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry said it welcomes the ceasefire in Lebanon and emphasises the responsibility of the international community in effectively pressuring Israel to stop the war in Gaza.
Syrian state agency reported six people died including two soldiers in an Israeli attack on border crossings between Syria and Lebanon in the Homs countryside.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
US Secretary of State Blinken said the US is continuing to surge security assistance to bolster Ukraine’s defences in the east, and the involvement of North Korean troops in the Ukrainian conflict was a matter of grave concern for all G7. Blinken said they are finalising “getting out the door” the USD 50bln that has been secured on the basis of frozen Russian sovereign assets and going into 2025, Ukraine has the money, munitions and forces to fight effectively or negotiate.
Russia’s new missile fired at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro last week carried warheads without explosives causing limited damage, according to Reuters citing sources.
OTHER
US President-elect Trump’s team weighs direct talks with North Korea’s Leader Kim Jong Un, according to Reuters citing sources.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
BoE’s Lombardelli said US tariffs would pose a risk to UK economic growth and it is unclear what impact tariffs would have on UK inflation, while she added that a tight UK labour market remains a problem and is worried that services inflation remains above pre-COVID levels.
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
Trump Said To Be Weighing Direct Talks With North Korea’s Kim
Tuesday, Nov 26, 2024 – 09:20 PM
During his first term in the White House, President-elect Donald Trump held three meetings with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. The First was in Hanoi, followed by a highly ‘controversial’ meeting at the Korean border, which was the first time in history that a sitting American president had stepped foot into the North Korean side of the border.
There was talk at the time of the two leaders falling “in love”—however, the past couple years of Biden’s Pentagon parking a nuclear submarine at a South Korean port has done much to undo these good will displays. Washington has requested that Pyongyang abandon its nuclear weapons development, while Kim has demanded nothing less than full sanctions relief.
What will the policy be under the second Trump White House?
“US president-elect Donald Trump’s team is discussing pursuing direct talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, hoping a fresh diplomatic push can lower the risks of armed conflict, according to two people familiar with the matter,” South China Morning Post and Reuters report Tuesday.
While Trump’s transition team has said nothing official on the issue as yet, insider sources say a return to direct diplomacy is hopeful:
Several in Trump’s team now see a direct approach from Trump, to build on a relationship that already exists, as most likely to break the ice with Kim, years after the two traded insults and what Trump called “beautiful” letters in an unprecedented diplomatic effort during his first term in office, the people said.
As for the North Korean side, it doesn’t seem in any hurry, or at least is building leverage in anticipation of potential near-future Trump overtures.
The Wall Street Journal summarized Kim’s reaction as of last week as follows:
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appeared to rebuff the prospect of reviving his nuclear diplomacy with President-elect Donald Trump, according to his first public remarks about disarmament talks since the election.
North Korea’s state media reported Friday that the 40-year-old dictator called the U.S. a superpower that operated by force rather than a will to coexist and belittled the value that previous talks had for his cash-strapped regime.
Kim was quoted in a speech days ago as saying, “We have already explored every possible avenue in negotiating with the US.”
He cited Washington’s “unchanging aggressive and hostile policy” toward North Korea, which has included stepped-up joint US-South Korean military exercises on the peninsula.
It’s possible that if Trump is able to oversee peace in Ukraine, which he is pledging to begin in earnest from day one of entering the Oval Office, things could stabilize with US-North Korea relations as well.
But looming large as a complicating factor is North Korea’s sending some 10,000 of its troops to Russia, where they are reportedly assisting Moscow forces in pushing back Ukraine’s occupation of the southern Kursk region. Kiev has used this to decry the ‘internationalization’ of the war, despite NATO having injected billions of dollars and heavy weaponry on Ukraine’s side.
END
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
SPECIAL THANKS TO ROBERT H FOR SENDING THIS TO US:
An accident waiting to happen: Chinese property bubble will burst
(EpochTimes)
China’s Property Bubble May Be Bursting
11/22/2024
The aerial view shows residential buildings under construction by Chinese real estate developer Vanke in Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, China, on March 15, 2024. STR/AFP via Getty Images
News Analysis
China’s property bubble—one of the nation’s key economic drivers and a source of its demographic problems—may be bursting. Property values and investments are declining, and land developers are in distress. The situation could become worse as more property units are completed and enter the market.
For years, China’s property values headed in one direction: up. Newly built homes and apartments became the favored assets of the country’s new class of landlords, who invested the fortunes accumulated in other parts of the economy. Easy money supplied by state banks and investment companies, the easing of regulations, and hyped expectations of further gains also added to the mania.
Rising property values were music to the ears of land developers, usually state-owned enterprises, and to Beijing, which could tout the contribution of construction projects to the country’s economic growth.
“The Chinese government allowed a booming real estate market to expand with few regulations. New personal wealth was created from property investments and funding construction projects that moved more citizens into the middle class,” Jerry O’Reilly, a real estate investor at Cash Home Buyers Crew, told The Epoch Times via email.
“Government officials feared slowing the expansion might create unrest when some citizens already had wealth while others were starting to invest and see huge economic boons, so they did little to regulate the industry.”
However, rising property values weren’t great for China’s average young citizens looking to purchase a home and raise a family. This could explain the country’s urgent demographic problem: the plunge in marriages and birthrates, which has far-reaching consequences for China’s ability to compete in labor-intensive industries and sustain the current economic growth.
Yet, bubbles cannot keep swelling forever, as the pool of speculators—who buy properties just on the belief that they can find other speculators willing to pay ever higher prices—dries up.
That’s when the music stops for the beneficiaries of the bubble: property prices fall, landlords are left with unsellable properties, banks and investment firms suffer mounting losses, and the government is left to foot the bill to bail out these institutions.
This happened in many countries before, from the Soviet Union in the 1950s and Nigeria in the 1960s to Japan in the early 1990s. It happened in China in the late 1990s, too, and it has happened again in the past couple of years as the country’s government bureaucrats are beginning to worry about the sheer size of the bubble and take steps to ease its impact on the broader economy.
“The housing market was 25–29 percent of China’s GDP in 2023,” O’Reilly said. “The government has finally passed new regulations to diversify the economy—a move away from the heavy reliance on property.”
These regulations accelerated the decline in property values already underway.
The average price of newly built homes in 70 Chinese cities declined at an annual rate of 5.9 percent in October, following a 5.8 percent decline in September. It marked the sixteenth consecutive month of decrease and the steepest pace since April 2015. Price declines were widespread across all major cities.
Meanwhile, property investment spending fell by 10.3 percent year over year in October, following a 10.1 percent decline in September.
While Beijing expanded regulations to tame the property bubble, the People’s Bank of China (PBC) slashed official borrowing rates to ease the impact of the shortfall from the decline in property values and investments that followed. In October, PBC governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank might further reduce the reserve requirement ratio by 25–50 basis points by year-end to improve liquidity conditions.
However, the central bank’s efforts to ease liquidity came too late to prevent some land developers from getting into trouble. Two of China’s largest developers, Evergrande and Country Garden, for example, defaulted on major loans last year, followed by Yuzhou Group’s default a few months ago and its $6.7 billion restructuring, and Zhongzhi Enterprise Group’s recent insolvency.
“This created a wave of investor fear in the real estate sector,” O’Reilly said. “This meant fewer people bought property as an investment, and still fewer invested cash to fund new construction.”
He said the problem could worsen, as China has many prepaid units that developers still need to complete.
“The developers don’t have access to the cash to complete the sold housing units. An additional 60 million units have been completed but are still unsold,” O’Reilly said.
“That amounts to a four-year supply of housing. Investors want to avoid spending additional money to complete the prepaid units, so they sit unfinished and abandoned.”
Story continues below advertisement
Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA, partner, and chief investment officer of Running Point Capital Advisors, said massive property deflation has already occurred.
“Now it is a matter of picking up the pieces and ‘rebuilding’ confidence by razing excess inventory, tearing down or completing unfinished projects, and re-incentivizing home ownership through low interest rates and heavy government incentive,” he told The Epoch Times in an email.
“Unless a wholesale cleansing is done, personal real estate could be in a quagmire for years.”
end
CHINA/NATO/EUROPE
This story gets better with age: They surround the Chinese ship suspected of sabotaging the EU undersea Baltic cables
(zerohedge)
NATO Flotilla Surrounds Chinese Ship Suspected Of Sabotaging EU Undersea Baltic Cables
WEDNESDAY, NOV 27, 2024 – 11:45 AM
A flotilla of NATO warships has surrounded a Chinese bulk carrier transporting Russian fertilizer for one week amid suspicions of its involvement in sabotaging two undersea fiber optic cables connecting Finland, Germany, Sweden, and Lithuania across the Baltic Sea.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the 225-meter Yi Peng 3 bulk carrier is at the center of the sabotage investigation and threatens to push the limits of maritime law after investigators believe the ship deliberately drug its anchor along the Baltic seabed for more than 100 miles.
Yi Peng 3 departed from the Russian Baltic port of Ust-Luga on Nov. 15. Investigators have shifted focus on whether Russian intelligence officials influenced the captain of the Chinese-owned ship to carry out sabotage on Europe’s critical infrastructure.
One senior European investigator said, “It’s extremely unlikely that the captain would not have noticed that his ship dropped and dragged its anchor, losing speed for hours and cutting cables on the way.”
The ship tracking website MarineTraffic shows four NATO ships have surrounded the bulk carrier in the Kattegat Strait.
WSJ noted during the incident, “The ship’s transponder, which charts its movements on the so-called Automatic Identification System, shut down in what is known as a “dark incident”… and the “ship then continued even as the dragging anchor greatly reduced its speed, according to satellite and other data reviewed by investigators.”
“Given the mild weather conditions and manageable wave heights, the likelihood of accidental anchor dragging appears minimal,” analytics company Kpler wrote in a report to WSJ.
Western intelligence officials don’t believe Beijing was involved in the incident. Instead, they suspect Russian intelligence agencies…
In response to the incident, the Kremlin press office told the Journal, “These are absurd, unsubstantiated accusations.”
More about the ongoing investigation from WSJ:
Under international maritime law, NATO ships can’t force the Yi Peng 3 to sail into one of their ports. Swedish and German authorities are negotiating with the ship’s owner to obtain access to the vessel and question its crew.
German police also dispatched the Bamberg, a patrol vessel, to investigate one of the incidents with underwater drones. Swedish and Danish ships have also examined the sites on the seabed.
European authorities must tread carefully because of their commitment to the freedom of navigation and upholding international law that underpins global trade, according to several European politicians, as well as security and law-enforcement officials familiar with the probe.
The incident in the Baltics comes just over a year after a Chinese-registered commercial vessel, the Newnew Polar Bear, severed the Balticconnector gas pipeline and fiber optic lines connecting Finland and Estonia with its anchor.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
GERMANY
Special thanks to Robert H for sending this to us:
Huge Thyssen Krupp to slash 11,000 jobs worldwide
German steel giant ThyssenKrupp to slash 11,000 jobs
11/25/2024November 25, 2024
Germany’s largest steelmaker ThyssenKrupp has announced a plan to cut its current workforce by more than a third by the end of the decade.
Thyssenkrupp Steel is based in the western German city of Duisburg
German industrial giant ThyssenKrupp Steel Europe on Monday announced a plan to shrink its workforce from the current 27,000 to 16,000 within six years.
The Duisburg-based company blamed an increase in cheap imports, especially from Asia, for putting an increased and “significant strain on competitiveness.”
Thyssenkrupp to reduce production capactiy
“Urgent measures are required to improve Thyssenkrupp Steel’s own productivity and operational efficiency and to achieve a competitive cost level,” a statement from the firm said.
Some 5,000 jobs in its European steel operations would be cut by the end of 2030 through “adjustments in production and administration,” it announced.
A further 6,000 jobs are to be outsourced or stripped away in business sales, according to the plan.
To address overcapacity in the market, the company plans to reduce production capacity from the current 11.5 million metric tons to a future target level of 8.7 to 9 million tons.
Union calls job cuts ‘catastrophe’
Thyssenkrupp’s head of steel, Dennis Grimm, said the restructuring was aimed at securing long-term job prospects for as many employees as possible.
“Comprehensive optimization and streamlining of our production network and processes is necessary to make us fit for the future,” he said.
“We are aware that this path will demand a great deal from many people, especially because we will have to cut a large number of jobs over the coming years in order to become more competitive.”
The steelmaker said it hoped to avoid lay-offs, and would instead aim to reduce staff through voluntary departures.
However, trade union IG Metall, which represents much of the workforce, described the plan as “a catastrophe” for employees.
Alongside the cost-cutting measures, parent company and majority shareholder ThyssenKrupp wants to push ahead with a plan to transform its steel division into a fully independent company. That proposal has met with opposition from labor leaders.
Czech energy company EPCG currently holds a 20% stake in ThyssenKrupp Steel, with plans to increase its holding to 50%.
ThyssenKrupp, whose products range from steel to submarines, recorded a loss of €1.5 billion ($1.6 billion) for the 2023-24 financial year, having lost some €2 billion the previous year.
rc/msh (dpa, AFP, Reuters)
END
GERMANY
Germany having gone woke and has some serious migrant problems. Get a load of this!
German Criticizes Judge Who ‘Fined’ Syrian For Raping 15-Year-Old Girl; Gets Fined Twice As Much
A German man who described a judge as “obviously mentally disturbed” — after the judge issued a light sentence to a Syrian who raped a 15-year-old girl — was slapped with a €5,000 fine for “insulting” the judge. This fine given to Paul S., whose name has been changed to protect his identity, was fine almost double the fine given to the Syrian rapist. The Syrian not only did not have to serve prison time but was even complimented during his trial by the district judge for his integration efforts.
The judge in the case issued a suspended sentence, a form of probation, to the 30-year-old Syrian rapist, and he only had to pay his victim the sum of €3,000.
Paul S. wrote an angry email to the district court judge due to the sentence, which he found to be unfair.
The penalty issued against Paul S. was later reduced after an appeal, with the man ordered to pay a third of the original fine.
German news outlet NIUS obtained documents related to the case from the Wiesbaden District Court, which showed the prosecutor charged Paul S. due to his email, which was allegedly written in a “defamatory manner.” The man described the judge as “mentally disturbed.”
The rape case originally took place in Osnabrück in 2022 when a drunk 30-year-old Syrian raped a 15-year-old girl who was simply walking home. The judge only sentenced the Syrian to two years’ probation with no prison time.
The judge not only issued the man no prison time, but actually complimented him during his sentencing due to the man’s “positive” development in German society.
The judge said these words verbatim at a rape trial in which the man was convicted: “You are well on your way to becoming a completely normal citizen here.”
The judge the also literally said that the rape intensity was “at the lower end.”
Free speech advocates say that Germany is veering towards autocracy, where any critic of the government can face police raids and prosecutions. In some cases, courts have overruled these fines and prosecutions in order to preserve free speech rights.
Generally most of European bond yields are down. However France’s yields are rising especially when compared to the 10 German bund. This is causing huge increase in costs to France. The French 10 year bond over the 10 German bund is 89 basis points and indicates huge problems for France
(zerohedge)
Frexit Fears Reignite As Market “Storm” Drives Core EU Spreads To Crisis Highs
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 08:26 AM
Merde alors, as they say in Paris!!
Amid a battle over the country’s budget and an ongoing fiscal crisis, France’s 10Y yield spread to Germany’s has soared up to over 85bps – its highest since the European financial crisis – reigniting ‘Frexit’ fears as decoupling of the core countries accelerates…
Source: Bloomberg
The French government risks facing higher borrowing costs as its lack of a majority in Parliament makes it harder to implement spending curbs and tax hikes needed to curb a ballooning budget deficit.
Michel Barnier, right, with Finance Minister Antoine Armand in Paris on Oct. 15
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier said the country faces “storm” in financial markets if an “unlikely but possible” alliance of lawmakers across the political spectrum rejects his government’s budget proposals and votes it out of power.
“There will probably be a rather serious storm and serious turbulences in financial markets” in case of a no-confidence vote, Barnier said in an interview with French TV channel TF1.
“If the government falls, emergency measures will be taken,” which won’t cover full-year expenses.
Specifically, as Bloomberg reports, the premier’s political survival hangs on whether French far-right leader Marine Le Pen’s will back a potential no-confidence vote when he presents final versions of the 2025 government and social-security budget bills in coming days and weeks.
Le Pen has vowed to bring down his administration if her demands to better protect household purchasing power aren’t met.
Barnier went on TV Tuesday night after his boss, President Emmanuel Macron, reportedly said he believed that Le Pen would carry out her threats, and that Barnier would soon be out. Macron’s office denied he made such comments.
Le Pen has focused her ire on the government’s plan to increase taxes on electricity, to lower reimbursements for medicine, and to postpone the indexation of pensions to inflation.
She has also demanded additional measures on immigration.
In a bid to assuage Le Pen’s party, Barnier said Tuesday that electricity prices will fall by 9% next year, “and we’ll see if we can do more to preserve the purchasing power of the French.”
Le Pen has recently hardened her tone, threatening to topple the government while playing down the negative consequences of a no-confidence vote.
“We could very well come to a situation where the government is again put into jeopardy,” said Greg Hirt, global chief investment officer for multi asset at Allianz Global Investors.
The path to installing a new government remains unclear.
It took months for Macron to appoint a prime minister this summer after losing his majority in the French parliament earlier in the year.
Emergency measures that could be taken by an interim government would prevent “neither a crisis, nor the mistrust of financial markets,” Barnier said.
There could be a new budget bill, “but we don’t have time to lose.”
“Besides the recent political headlines underscoring that the budget agreement will become difficult and could bring the government down, the macro outlook is also deteriorating quickly,” Christoph Rieger, Commerzbank’s head of rates and credit research, wrote in a note.
France’s finances are about to face scrutiny from S&P Global Ratings on Friday, which could be the next catalyst for market moves, after both Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Ratings gave it a negative outlook last month.
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Fragile ceasefire.
(JerusalemPost)
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire: A fragile peace with future war risks – analysis
From October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah attacked Israel’s border villages with rockets and anti-tank missiles, until August 25 of this year, the war was mostly a tie.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 26, 2024 19:29Updated: NOVEMBER 26, 2024 21:20
Hezbollah rocket shrapnel ignites fire in Petah Tikva.(photo credit: FIRE AND RESCUE SERVICE)
And yet, the terms of the ceasefire and the status of Hezbollah maintaining many of the sources of its power make it clear that another Lebanon war may be closer than many would like to hope.
How did we get here?
From October 8, 2023, when Hezbollah attacked border villages with rockets and anti-tank missiles, until August 25 of this year, the war was mostly a tie.
From October-December 2023, it truly was a tie.
Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs, after Israeli strikes, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon November 23, 2024. (credit: REUTERS/Ayman Sahely TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
From December 2023 until August 2024, Israel started to kill far more Hezbollah fighters than the Iranian proxy terrorist group was managing to kill on the Israeli side.
Temporary victory with future war risks
At most points, Israeli deaths were in the dozens, and Hezbollah deaths were in the several-hundred range.Compared to the 60,000 Israelis who evacuated from the northern border in October 2023 – which retroactively many defense officials, though not all, consider a mistake – hundreds of thousands and eventually more than a million Lebanese had to evacuate their homes.
Yet, even this stage served as a relative tie, because Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was prepared to tolerate the level of limited IDF attacks, and Israel was unhappy with the constant rocket fire to the North.On August 25, Hezbollah tried to launch over 1,000 rockets, including at 11 IDF bases, Mossad, and military intelligence headquarters.
The IDF struck preemptively and defanged the Hezbollah attack so thoroughly, that the military and political echelon decided to roll the dice in a much bigger way.
From September 17 until one week into October, the IDF and Mossad decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership (including Nasrallah himself), most of its more powerful rockets and missiles, and invaded southern Lebanon, clearing it of much of Hezbollah’s invasion threat capability.
For all of these reasons, Israel had a basis to seek better ceasefire terms than it did after the Second Lebanon War (2006), where it tied with Hezbollah in a lot of ways. This might also help prevent a war in the near future.
So when reports say that Israel secured a side deal from the US that would allow it to attack Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River – without needing UNIFIL permission – that element comes from this position of strength. When Israel will also continue to act against cross-border Syria-Lebanon weapons smuggling and will be able to appeal to an international body run by the US – not the UN – against Hezbollah weapons buildups even beyond southern Lebanon, that also comes from this position of strength.
But, for the last six weeks, there have been very few strategic achievements.
Israel certainly killed more commanders, blew up rockets, and destroyed more weapons. But, Hezbollah managed to keep heavy and constant rocket fire not only on the close border villages but has extended its threat to around one-third of the country, including Haifa, at times even to central Israel.
What’s more, Hezbollah still has tens of thousands of rockets and could keep up its rocket fire for an indefinite period.
So, for all of the bragging by certain political and defense officials a few weeks ago that Hezbollah was about to run out and would not be able to fire 100 rockets another day, earlier this week it fired over 250.
The IDF may have killed a couple of thousand Hezbollah fighters and most of the commanders, but tens of thousands of rank-and-file Hezbollah fighters remain, and an even larger group of Lebanese Shi’ites are ready to help the group fight in a variety of ways.
Both because of those reasons and because Israel’s attempt to install a friendly government in Lebanon in the 1980s and to hold onto a security zone is viewed as failing miserably, Jerusalem’s negotiating position has been weaker than some might think.
Put bluntly, Israel had very little else it could threaten to do to Hezbollah and was nowhere near threatening to topple it from power as it did with Hamas.
Under those circumstances, while the IDF got close to a knockout, it definitely was not one, and the difference there – for framing the post-war reality – is massive.
This is why Israel has no security zone in Lebanon and no right in the deal with Hezbollah to attack when it violates the deal (though, again, it does have a separate side approval from the US).
Valid questions have been raised about how the IDF will know that a farmer in flip flops, say, is really a Hezbollah fighter, when he returns to his southern Lebanese village.
Also, the side letter with the US sets up a systematic point of friction with the Americans, especially four years from now in the post-Trump era, but even more likely sometimes with the incoming Trump administration.
At the end of the day, Israel will only preserve its security interests if its air and land forces stay focused on Hezbollah movements and are ready to “rock the boat” post-ceasefire by attacking when there is a violation.
It is hard to see that Israelis will stay this focused for more than several months, let alone several years. In that case, Hezbollah requires only patience to make its comeback. And then, in three or five years, it can attack again.
Or perhaps, it will counterstrike the first time Israel tries to attack Hezbollah forces entering southern Lebanon, triggering another war even sooner.
There is no question that this is a better deal and that Israel has better leverage than in 2006; there is also no question that the formula for the next war is present in today’s ceasefire.
END
ISRAEL// HEZBOLLAH/analysis of the deal
Debating a ceasefire in Lebanon: Pros and cons for Israel’s security – analysis
Then imagine Canada bombarding US cities along its borders—Detroit, Sault Ste. Marie (Michigan) and Buffalo — in an act of solidarity with the brutal drug lords.
By HERB KEINONNOVEMBER 26, 2024 18:39Updated: NOVEMBER 26, 2024 21:02
Smoke billows over Beirut’s southern suburbs, after Israeli strikes, amid the ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces, as seen from Baabda, Lebanon November 23, 2024.(photo credit: REUTERS/Ayman Sahely TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY)
Imagine a Mexican drug cartel storming the US border one autumn morning, killing, raping, kidnapping, and pillaging in cities along the border: San Diego, Yuma (Arizona), and El Paso.
Then imagine Canada bombarding US cities along its borders – Detroit, Sault Ste. Marie (Michigan) and Buffalo – in an act of solidarity with the brutal drug lords.
That question needs to be asked of those in the Western media who are somehow bewildered that there is any debate in Israel at all about whether to agree to a ceasefire in Lebanon. For some of them – adherents to an unyielding belief that all wars, even just ones, are inherently illegitimate and wrong – the very debate is taken as proof of an inexplicable Israeli bloodlust.
But Israelis are not lusting for Lebanese blood. They are not looking to destroy their northern neighbor. They are, however, interested in ensuring that in a few years, they will not be forced, again, to vacate their cities, kibbutzim, and moshavim and watch as so much of what they built up is burned down by a Hezbollah whim.
IDF captures Hezbollah weapons in Lebanon, November 25, 2024. (credit: YONAH JEREMY BOB)
In looking at the situation in the North, it is important not to lose the thread. And here is the thread: Hezbollah, completely unprovoked, began this war on October 8 by firing rockets on Israeli communities in a show of solidarity with Hamas. It is the Israeli government’s solemn responsibility, therefore, to ensure that Hezbollah is not in a position to do it again in a few years.
This is why there is a robust debate in the country over whether the emerging ceasefire is a good deal, something that Israelis should sign off on.
Here’s a look at some of the pros and cons.
The pros:
De-link Lebanon from Gaza
When Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was still alive and boasting, he pledged not to stop firing on Israel until there was a ceasefire in Gaza, linking the two fronts.
That is no longer a condition, as Hezbollah – with Iran’s backing – is keen on stopping the war now so its capabilities are not further degraded. In other words, it is abandoning Hamas, something that could impact Hamas as it realizes that no organization (Hezbollah) or country (Iran) is going to come to its rescue. This is a clear victory for Israel.
The Trump factor
US President-elect Donald Trump has said on numerous occasions that he wants to see the war in Lebanon end by the time he takes office on January 20.
This ceasefire makes that happen, offering Israel a valuable opportunity to align with Trump’s priorities and – as many around the world will be trying to do – cultivate a favorable relationship with the incoming administration.The Biden factor
US President Joe Biden has invested – via his special negotiator Amos Hochstein – a considerable amount of time and energy trying to broker this deal. An Israeli refusal to sign what the Biden Administration deems to be a good package could trigger Biden’s ire, with memories in Jerusalem still stinging from how then-President Barack Obama expressed his own frustration with Israel in the waning days of his presidency by enabling a harsh anti-Israel UN Security Council resolution to pass during his lame duck period in December 2016.
Jerusalem’s concern is that were Israel not to agree to this deal, the US might not veto a UN Security Council resolution dealing with Lebanon that would be adverse to its interests.
The degradation of Hezbollah’s capabilities
Despite all their bluster, Hezbollah has taken a tremendous military hit. Its leadership cadre is decimated; its rocket and missile arsenal – built up at the cost of billions of dollars – has been severely depleted; the fortifications it built along Israel’s border – in the guise of civilian villages – have largely been destroyed; its image both in Lebanon and throughout the region has been soiled.
Continuing the war might further erode Hezbollah’s capabilities. Still, the critical question is when the effort reaches a point of diminishing returns – when the destruction of additional missiles and rockets no longer justifies the toll in Israeli blood and treasure required to sustain the campaign.
The reserves
After 14 months of war, the country – and hundreds of thousands of its reserve soldiers – is exhausted. The toll of continuing to pursue goals in Lebanon will be borne by reservists who will be asked to show up for their fourth, fifth, or even sixth stints since October 7.
The cost of this is on the reservists, their families, and their finances is exceptionally high, let alone the cost to the country’s economy.
The reservists are still showing up for duty in large numbers, and their morale remains high – though the percentage of those showing up has dropped from some 130% immediately after October 7 to an estimated 70-80% now. For the most part those not showing up for duty now are not doing so out of ideological reasons or opposition to the war, but because the strain on their lives is just getting too great .A ceasefire now will allow the reservists to catch a much-needed breath.
The weapons economy
This war is approaching its 14-month mark, by far the longest Israel has fought since the War of Independence. While the public has no idea how many bombs, bullets, and tank shells remain in the army’s storehouses, the palpable concern in Jerusalem whenever the Biden Administration slows down or holds up weapons shipments is indicative that the supply of weapons is not unlimited. This is something of concern, considering that a wider war with Iran is not something that can be discounted. A ceasefire now will allow Israel to re-supply.
In addition, a ceasefire in the North will allow the IDF to direct some of the resources and soldiers who have been fighting in Lebanon to other fronts: Gaza and the West Bank
The cons:
No buffer zone
The biggest argument against signing the deal is that it does not provide for a buffer zone in southern Lebanon.The goal of the offensive in Lebanon that began with a government decision in mid-September and drew global attention a couple of days later with the exploding beepers and walkie-talkies was to enable the Israelis who evacuated their communities – from Shlomi to Kiryat Shmona to Metulla and numerous kibbutzim and moshavim in between – to return home.
One of the considerations that would encourage them to return home is the belief that Hezbollah cannot – as it has promised in the past – carry out an October 7-style attack in the North and murder, rape, and kidnap the residents there the way Hamas did in the South.
One way of preventing that was to destroy the Lebanese villages that sit right along the border – keeping them from serving as jumping-off points for a Hamas-style attack. And, indeed, the IDF has cleared away the villages along the border, and then some, also destroying a labyrinth of attack tunnels there.
Under the emerging agreement, however, no clause prevents those villages from being rebuilt. As a result, the hope that residents of Metulla would no longer see houses in Kfar Kila from their living rooms – houses from which precision-guided anti-tank missiles were fired directly at them – is proving to be in vain.
While the emerging agreement mandates that Hezbollah be moved north of the Litani River and not be found anywhere in southern Lebanon, what will keep them from once again building fortifications disguised as pastoral villages?
The answer: Israel.
Israel will reserve the right to prevent Hezbollah from rebuilding. But the big question is: will it? Will it take action a couple of years down the line when quiet and prosperity have returned, and when the cost of taking action will be another possible war and the disruption of that quiet and prosperity?
Hezbollah still stands
While Israel never declared destroying Hezbollah as one of its war aims – as it stated regarding Hamas – the fact that Hezbollah will remain standing after the war, though significantly weakened, is a significant point of concern.The destruction of Israel is a central tenant of Hezbollah’s radical ideology, and as long as it still exists, it will try to implement that ideology.
Israel may never be able to completely destroy Hezbollah, but it could continue to degrade its capabilities even further. The IDF now has Hezbollah on the ropes, but this ceasefire will prevent it from delivering a heavy sidewinder or a knockout punch. And if Hezbollah is not knocked out, it will – with the assistance of Iran – surely try to rise back up again.
.
end
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
Israeli cabinet approves the ceasefire deal
(JerusalemPost)
Israeli Cabinet Has Approved A Ceasefire In Lebanon
Tuesday, Nov 26, 2024 – 01:15 PM
Update(1315ET): After months of heavy fighting which has included airstrikes and an IDF ground invasion of Lebanon, it finally looks official. Israel’s Channel 12 and others are reporting Tuesday evening (local time) that the Israeli cabinet has approved a ceasefire in Lebanon.
In announcing the ceasefire, Netanyahu called out both Iran and Syria’s Assad. He stressed that Israel is “Determined to prevent Iran from having nuclear arms” and that Assad is “playing with fire” in his coordination with the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah. The prime minister also stressed that Hezbollah will be attacked if its fighters break the deal. Netanyahu added that the ceasefire deal means Israel will now focus on the Iranian threat. He pledged that all Israeli citizens in the north will be able to return to their homes.
“We were able to achieve many of our goals during this war,” he said. The ceasefire is expected to take effect Wednesday. Jerusalem Post writes, “Presidents Biden and Macron will announce the deal during the night, with the alleged agreement set to take effect at 10 a.m. tomorrow.”
Some Lebanese continue to have doubts that it will actually take effect or hold…
An Al Jazeera correspondent in Lebanon observes, “People in Lebanon were waiting for this speech. Despite the fact Netanyahu was talking about the Israelis ceasing the ceasefire any time they want, people will be cherry-picking the positives here.” According to more:
The Israeli prime minister talked about a “paradigm shift in security for Israel”. He mentioned every adversary in the Arab world you can think of, and he made it clear the ceasefire was done on their terms and according to their timing.
There is some truth to that. However, there are two conflicts being fought in Lebanon: there is the massive air campaign and Israel has wreaked devastating havoc across the country; but there’s also the ground incursion near the border in the south.
President Biden is expected to take credit for putting together the proposal which has been agreed upon.
An Israeli flag stands next to destroyed buildings on an area in southern Lebanon as seen from northern Israel, November 25, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)
A US-brokered ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah comes into effect at 4 a.m. local time, bringing a halt to almost 14 months of Hezbollah-initiated fighting across the northern border.
The agreement, which was not published ahead of the deal coming into effect, reportedly provides for a 60-day transition period during which the IDF will withdraw its forces from southern Lebanon; the Lebanese Army will deploy some 5,000 troops to south of the Litani River, including at 33 posts along the border with Israel; Hezbollah forces will leave southern Lebanon, and its military infrastructure will be dismantled. The US is also reportedly providing a side letter specifying Israel’s rights to respond to Hezbollah violations of the ceasefire.
Hezbollah began firing into Israel the day after Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught in southern Israel, in support of its fellow Iran-backed terror group, forcing the displacement of some 60,000 residents of northern Israel. Israel’s military responses intensified two months ago, with Israel killing much of Hezbollah’s leadership and destroying much but not all of its missile, rocket and drone capabilities. * *
END
Just before the 4 am deadline Israeli strikes on Beirut’s southern suburbs, the heartland for Hezbollah
(zerohedge)
Israeli strikes reported in Beirut’s southern suburbs, less than an hour before truce expected to begin
Air strikes hit Beirut’s southern suburbs early Wednesday, according to Lebanese media reports, less than an hour before an announced truce between Israel and Hezbollah is expected to come into force.
The IDF issued evacuation warnings for civilians ahead of the strikes.
Streams of cars carrying people displaced from southern Lebanon by the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah and the Israeli ground operation in recent months begin heading south after a ceasefire halting hostilities between the Iran-backed terror group Hezbollah and Israel came into force.
Reuters reporters see dozens of cars leaving the port city of Sidon south of Beirut around 4:00 a.m. local time and heading deeper into southern Lebanon.
Earlier, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee warned Lebanese civilians to not yet return to villages in the south, “for your protection and the safety of your families.”
Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman, warns Lebanese civilians to not yet return to villages in southern Lebanon as a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect.
“With the ceasefire agreement coming into effect, and in accordance with its provisions, the IDF continues to be prepared in its positions in southern Lebanon,” Adraee says.
“Do not move towards the villages that the IDF evacuated or towards IDF forces in the area. For your protection and the safety of your families, avoid reaching the area,” he says.
“We will inform you of the safe date to return to your homes,” the spokesman adds.
The United States Central Command (CENTCOM) carried out an airstrike a short while ago against an “Iranian-aligned militia weapons storage facility in Syria,” it says in a brief statement, adding that the strike was a response to an attack on US forces in the area the previous day.
It says that the purpose of the strike was to “degrade their [Iranian-aligned forces] ability to plan and launch future attacks on US and Coalition forces who are in the region.”
CENTCOM commander Gen. Michael Kurilla says that the US “will not tolerate any attacks on our personnel and coalition partners.”
“We are committed to taking all necessary actions to ensure their protection,” he adds.
The statement adds that the impact of the strike is not immediately clear, but that there have been no reports of civilian casualties.
Israel’s Channel 12 news outlet shares details from a side letter that it says the US is providing to Israel as part of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal, in which it affirms and details Israel’s right to defend itself against renewed threats from the Iran-backed terror group in Lebanon.
According to the report, the US will commit to providing Israel with intelligence information pertaining to violations of the terms of the ceasefire deal, and in particular, regarding any indication that Hezbollah is attempting to infiltrate the ranks of the Lebanese Armed Forces, which will be deployed to southern Lebanon.
The letter also reiterates the US’s commitment to cooperating with Israel to prevent Iran from continuing its destabilizing operations in Lebanon, including the smuggling of Iranian weapons to Hezbollah, the report adds.
The US also confirms in the letter that Israel has the right to act in response to threats from inside Lebanon, “in accordance with international law,” Channel 12 reports.
Regarding the possibility that Hezbollah will violate the terms of the ceasefire, the letter is reported to note that should the terms of the agreement be broken in southern Lebanon, from which Hezbollah is required to withdraw, Israel will reserve the right to act at any time.
Beyond southern Lebanon, it will reportedly only be permitted to act in response to Hezbollah violating the ceasefire if the Lebanese Armed Forces are unable or unwilling to deal with the violations itself.
Should Israel feel it is required to take action in response to threats inside Lebanon, regardless of where, it will be required to notify the United States wherever possible, Channel 12 says the letter adds.
Finally, the report says, the letter confirms Israel’s right to conduct reconnaissance flights over Lebanon, for intelligence purposes, so long as they do not break the sound barrier
END
ISRAEL /HAMAS
SHOULD BE INTERESTING
(JERUSALEM POST)
‘A serious deal’: Hamas says ready for Gaza truce
“Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” a senior Hamas official was cited as saying.
Terrorists belonging to Hamas’s Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades take part in a gathering in the Gaza Strip. January 31, 2016.(photo credit: MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images)
Hamas on Wednesday said it was ready for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip after the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect on Wednesday morning.
“We are committed to cooperating with any effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza, and we are interested in ending the aggression against our people,” the terror group said in a statement.
“We have informed mediators in Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey that Hamas is ready for a ceasefire agreement and a serious deal to exchange prisoners,” a Hamas official told AFP.
The official, however, reportedly accused Israel of obstructing an agreement.
Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters that Hamas has shown “flexibility” in reaching a ceasefire and blamed the failure to reach a deal on Israel.
When referring to the ceasefire in Lebanon, Zuhri said that the group “appreciates” Lebanon’s right to reach an agreement that protects the people of Lebanon and hopes for a deal to end the war in Gaza.
IDF soldiers operating in the Gaza Strip, November 25, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
US President Joe Biden and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said later on Wednesday that the US was renewing the push to secure a Gaza ceasefire.
“Over the coming days, the United States will make another push with Turkey, Egypt, Qatar, Israel, and others to achieve a ceasefire in Gaza with the hostages released and an end to the war without Hamas in power,” Biden wrote on X/Twitter.
Both Egypt and Qatar expressed hope that the ceasefire would lead to achieving a deal in Gaza.
On Tuesday, Biden drew a correlation between the ceasefire in Lebanon and an agreement in Gaza, stating the Palestinians deserved a secure and prosperous future, as did the Lebanese people.
In addition, Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed the ceasefire with Lebanon, noting, “What’s at stake as well, I think, are the larger ramifications of getting an agreement, including what I believe can be very positive effects on also ending the conflict in Gaza.”
Further on Tuesday, Walla reported that sources in the security establishment have indicated that a ceasefire in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah, such that the terror organization would be bound to uphold its obligations, could bring about an advancement in the hostage deal negotiations.
According to the report, such a deal could include Israel maintaining control over the Philadelphi Corridor in southern Gaza.
Military pressure on Hamas
A senior security official told the Israeli news outlet that the military pressure applied on Hamas would near the possibility of achieving a deal.
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect at 4:00 a.m. local time. The agreement includes a 60-day period during which Israeli forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese military would be deployed, with Hezbollah moving north of the Litani River.
Hannah Sarisohn and Reuters contributed to this report.
This is a developing story.
end
ISRAEL/HAMAS
IDF soldier killed in Gaza fighting, another succumbs to wounds sustained on Oct. 7
Druze leader mourns Sgt. Tamer Othman, says state must ensure community held as ‘equal partners’; sister of Sgt. First Class Yona Betzalel Brief says heart ‘shattered’
Combo image showing Sgt. Tamer Othman, 21, of the Kfir Brigade’s Nahshon Battalion (left) and Yona Betzalel Brief, 23, a combat medic with the Duvdevan commando unit, from Modiin. (Israel Defense Forces)
An Israel Defense Forces soldier was killed during fighting in the northern Gaza Strip while another died from wounds sustained during Hamas’s October 7, 2023, onslaught, the military announced Tuesday.
The slain soldier, named as Sgt. Tamer Othman, 21, of the Kfir Brigade’s Nahshon Battalion, from Kafr Yasif was killed in battle on Tuesday, the IDF said in a statement.
His death brings Israel’s toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip to 381. The toll includes a police officer killed in a hostage rescue mission and a Defense Ministry civilian contractor.
Druze spiritual leader Sheikh Mowafaq Tarif mourned Othman’s death in a statement, saying his community continued to pay a “heavy price” in the ongoing war, losing the best of its youth.
He urged the country’s leaders to “get up and take action,” and ensure Druze soldiers are held as “equal partners” in the country, in an apparent allusion to grievances between the community and the government, among them over the controversial 2018 Jewish Nation-State Law.
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The Druze community has charged that the 2018 law that designates Israel as the nation-state of the Jewish People is exclusionary and has called for it to be amended.
Palestinians inspect the damage after an Israeli airstrike in the Shejaiya suburb east of Gaza City on November 26, 2024. (Omar Al-Qatta/AFP)
The military also announced Tuesday the death of Sgt. First Class Yona Betzalel Brief, 23, a combat medic with the Duvdevan commando unit, from Modiin, who had been critically wounded fighting terrorists who burst across the border on October 7.
Hamas-led terrorists killed some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, during the brutal onslaught, while taking 251 hostages to Gaza and starting the ongoing war.
A service to pray for Brief’s recovery, which was meant to be held at the Western Wall Tuesday night, was canceled after the announcement.
His sister Libby wrote on Facebook that God had caught up to Brief after a year of him trying to flee his fate.
“Someone wake me up from this nightmare, my heart has been shattered into millions of pieces,” she wrote.
Modiin Mayor Haim Bibas wrote in a post that Brief “fought for his life with the same strength and determination that distinguishes him as a soldier.”
Separately on Tuesday morning, a reservist noncommissioned officer with the 8163rd Combat Engineering Battalion was seriously wounded in central Gaza, the military said.
Later on in the day, one rocket launched from the northern Gaza Strip struck an open area near Kfar Aza, the military said. There were no injuries.
File: The remains of a house in what used to be the young people’s section of Kibbutz Kfar Aza are seen on September 16, 2024. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)
Head of Hamas rocket unit killed
The IDF announced Tuesday that the head of Hamas’s East Jabalia Battalion’s rocket unit was recently killed in an airstrike in the northern Gaza Strip.
In a statement, the military said that the Israeli Air Force carried out the strike against rocket unit head Ahmed Abd Halim Abu Hussein in cooperation with the 215th Artillery Regiment, the Military Intelligence Directorate, and the Shin Bet.
It said that Abu Hussein was “responsible for planning numerous rocket and mortar launches toward Israel and IDF troops operating in the Gaza Strip.
Several other Hamas operatives were killed in the attack, the IDF says, including one who “participated in the murderous massacre on October 7.”
A separate airstrike in southern Gaza killed Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorist Basel Kamel Salim Nabahin, who also participated in the massacre, the IDF said Tuesday.
Gaza’s civil defense agency said Tuesday that 22 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes and shelling of the Palestinian territory, including 11 killed by a strike on a school-turned-shelter for displaced civilians.
The army said it struck “Hamas terrorists who were operating inside a command and control center in Gaza City,” adding that it “was embedded inside a compound that previously served as the ‘Al-Hurriya’ School.”
Earlier on Tuesday, the agency said 11 people were killed in overnight Israeli air strikes and shelling.
In the northern city of Jabalia, seven people were killed and several wounded in an airstrike on a residential building, civil defense spokesman Mahmud Bassal told AFP.
Another person was killed in a strike on a house in nearby Beit Lahia, which along with Jabalia has been the focus of a major Israeli military operation since October 6.
The attacks come amid Israel’s offensive in the northern Gaza areas of Jabilia and Beit Lahia, launched on October 6 to stop Hamas from regrouping. The military has said that tens of thousands of residents have complied with orders to evacuate the areas.
Additionally, on Tuesday, two people were killed in shelling at the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, Bassal said.
Displaced Palestinians wait in line to receive food at a distribution center in Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip on November 26, 2024. (Bashar Taleb/AFP)
In the southern city of Rafah, an airstrike killed one person and wounded several, he added.
Amid the dire humanitarian situation in the enclave, Jordanian military planes dropped aid to northern Gaza for the first time in five months, an official source said.
Two C-130 planes belonging to the Jordanian air force dropped nearly seven tons of food and essential relief to areas the UN agencies identified as most in need and facing hunger, the source told Reuters.
The Hamas-run health ministry in Gaza said Tuesday that at least 44,249 people have been killed in more than 13 months of war, though the toll cannot be verified and does not differentiate between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 18,000 combatants in battle as of November and another 1,000 terrorists inside Israel on October 7.
Israel has said it seeks to minimize civilian fatalities and stresses that Hamas uses Gaza’s civilians as human shields, fighting from civilian areas including homes, hospitals, schools, and mosques.
Adding to the miseries of Gaza’s 2.3 million people, most of whom have been repeatedly displaced, heavy winter rain flooded hundreds of tents across the enclave, spoiling food and sweeping away plastic and cloth sheeting that had protected them against the elements.
The Palestinian Civil Emergency Service said thousands of displaced people were impacted by the seasonal flooding and demanded new tents and caravans from aid donors to shield them.
ISRAEL./HEZBOLLAH/
Hezbollah testing the IDF’s reactions to ceasefire violations – analysis
In KfarKela and in a variety of other villages, Hezbollah forces started to try to enter areas that the IDF has defined as no-go zones for them.
HEZBOLLAH OPERATIVES salute during the funeral of comrades killed in an Israeli strike, in Shehabiya, south Lebanon, April 17.(photo credit: AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES)
Within hours of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire going into effect, Hezbollah was already testing the IDF’s reactions to violations.
In KfarKela and in a variety of other villages, Hezbollah forces started to try to enter areas that the IDF has defined as no-go zones for them.
So far, the IDF has used warning shots to “convince” these violators to turn around, and that has worked.
But a short time after the IDF announced its warning shot responses, Defense Minister Israel Katz said this was insufficient.
Katz said that if Hezbollah violators are unarmed but moving where they should not be they must be arrested, and that if there is even a hint of them presenting a danger, they should be shot and killed.
IDF soldiers conduct localized raids in southern Lebanon, November 20, 2024. (credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
Following Katz’s statement, IDF sources respectfully disagreed.
According to the sources, each case must be looked at based on the specific circumstances.
Also, the general tone of violations and respecting the ceasefire deal has an impact, said the sources.
If Hezbollah seems to be trying to carry out a more dangerous violation with more forces or more powerful weaponry, such as rockets or drones, when will the IDF shoot bullets, shells, and missiles from the air?
There does not seem to be agreement on a lot of these issues and while the political echelon is supposed to make broad policy, some of these rules of engagement questions are traditionally decided by the army, and some by commanders in the field who are closest to the complex dilemmas in question.
IDF sources said they will sternly enforce the deal, but on the other hand they do not want to blow up the deal over a small violation.
This sets up enforcement as a gray area from the start.
Another gray area is Iranian weapons smuggling from the air using civilian aircraft.
The Jerusalem Post has repeatedly asked top defense sources how Israel will know when a civilian aircraft is bringing weapons to Hezbollah.
Sometimes it might know, and sometimes it might not. And if it does know or if it has suspicions, will Israel for sure shoot down a civilian aircraft? If the aircraft lands, will it bomb it then or try to learn more on the ground while taking the risk that during that time, the weapons might disappear?
Cross-border smuggling from Syria
There are also questions about cross-border smuggling from Syria, but the IDF knew how to handle this problem even before the current war, and continuing attacks there by the IDF will not be perceived as violating the ceasefire deal.
Smuggling from the air has always been trickier for the IDF to stop.
All of this is only one side of the new reality in the North that is being shaped, but it is an important one, and Jerusalem needs to formulate a clear and consistent policy that works.
END
ISRAEL/WEST BANK
West Bank emerges as Israel’s primary security threat – analysis
Israel has not gotten back the hostages, and many of them have died since February, but that is a complex political and diplomatic decision and less of a straight military decision.
By YONAH JEREMY BOBNOVEMBER 27, 2024 17:20Updated: NOVEMBER 27, 2024 17:21
Weapons uncovered in the West Bank as part of a smuggling operation from Iran into the West Bank, November 27, 2024.(photo credit: IDF SPOKESPERSON’S UNIT)
No one is saying this explicitly, but the 2023-2024 Middle East war is basically over.
Surprisingly, what this means is that the greatest near-term danger to Israeli security – certainly for Israeli civilians – will return to being the West Bank, as it was before this war.
How does that make any sense?
First, recall that the IDF defeated most of Hamas militarily by February, and after waiting three months, in May-June, finished off Hamas militarily in Rafah.
Israel has not gotten back the hostages, and many of them have died since February, but that is a complex political and diplomatic decision and less of a straight military decision.
Israeli soldiers inspect the Shavei Shomron checkpoint, west of the West Bank city of Nablus, November 12, 2024 (credit: NASSER ISHTAYEH/FLASH90)
Also, as horrible as the hostage situation is, Hamas had not presented a real danger to Israeli civilians since its last major series of rocket volleys in January (it had a very short large barrage in May when Rafah was invaded, but that was just firing off last remaining inventory.)
West Bank emerges as Israel’s biggest security threat
That means that for the last five months or even nine months, what actually was endangering Israelis, especially civilians, was the war with Hezbollah.
Until September and early October, when the IDF killed Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, decapitated much of its other leadership and long-range missiles, and took over southern Lebanon – Hezbollah was unwilling to cut a ceasefire deal without a deal with Gaza.
Israel’s blitzkrieg of Hezbollah changed that, and with the Lebanese terror group out of the war, the Houthis and Iran are basically now out of the war also.
The Houthis were always a sideshow, mostly acting at Iran’s urging so that Tehran would not need to act itself.
For the Islamic Republic, the war has been a disaster as it has potentially uprooted its years of work to establish Hezbollah and Hamas as deterrents for Israel from attacking Iran directly. Also, Israel has destroyed most of its best air defense capabilities and significant portions of its ballistic missile production, leaving Tehran more vulnerable than it has been in a long time.
It has been long past time for Iran to cut its losses in order to try to rebuild its old strategy or quietly work on a new one.
If Hezbollah, Iran, and the Houthis are out, that really only leaves Gaza – which again is more of a political issue now than a military one – and the West Bank (technically, Syria and Iraqi militias are separate fronts, but they were never large threats and they will also stop attacks given Iran and Hezbollah dropping out.)
Unlike Gaza, the West Bank is as threatening as ever, and the trends of the threats there are much deeper and harder to cure than on other fronts.
Despite the IDF becoming far more aggressive with air strikes and other elements of its power in the West Bank since the summer, the number of deadly attacks has not really dropped compared to the average for 2024.
This is bad news, as the average for 2024 was far above the pre-war average.
In fact, most people have forgotten that the West Bank has been on fire with terror since March 2022.
In fact, one of many reasons that the Gaza border was under protection on October 7, 2023, was that many forces that had been there in 2021 were shifted to the West Bank on and off, starting from the 2022 waves of terror.
For example, in 202,1, there were under 10 IDF battalions in the West Bank, but to maintain order starting from 2022, there were often between 25-30 battalions – some moved from the Gaza border.
And this was not even the wrong move.
In other words, there should have been way more troops on the Gaza border at all times and for many years, but comparatively, for much of 2022-2023, the West Bank was objectively the greater threat.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have partially recognized this by finally approving a new Jordan border fence on Tuesday.
Iran has been trying harder than ever over the last two years to smuggle high-quality weapons into the West Bank to help Hamas and other terror groups commit more dangerous terror attacks.
This will continue to be a focus for Iran because it is an indirect way to confront Israel, and where it has higher plausible deniability than on other fronts because the terror actors will be Palestinian terror groups with whom there is no ceasefire anyway.
This new fence will be designed to better confront that threat.
However, the fence will take time, so keep a close eye on terror attempts in the coming months before it is up.
Even if a ceasefire is reached in Gaza, no past Gaza ceasefire has bound all terror groups in the West Bank.
And the West Bank also has much more spontaneous terror because there is no enforceable border.
Israeli settler villages and Palestinian villages are wrapped around each other in too many ways to fully police the area all of the time.
In other words, to solve Palestinian terror in the West Bank, there will also need to be a diplomatic element, something that no one has bothered discussing since this war started.
Until that diplomatic element moves forward, even with quiet on all of the other fronts, the West Bank will remain a near-term threat, and right now, probably Israel’s largest.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/USA
The Russians warned the West again: “No one will be able to prevent our Retaliation, learn the Nuclear Doctrine by Heart” – Sarajevo Times
There are considerable and insidious forces at play when it comes to the development of the war in Ukraine; a swirling mass of think tanks, globalists and bureaucrats are doing everything in their power to instigate an international conflict between the US, the EU and Russia. They’ve specifically been looking for a way to leverage the western populace into supporting direct and open warfare.
At the beginning of the event the propaganda was very effective in herding the political left into cheering for NATO involvement, with leftists calling for the “cancellation” of Russia and demanding boots on the ground to “wipe them off the face of the Earth.” One of those rabid activists (Ryan Routh) even tried to assassinate Donald Trump, ostensibly because Trump promised immediate peace negotiations with Russia should he become president again.
The Democratic Party, once considered the “anti-war party”, is now the warhawk party. Add to that a gaggle of frothing Neo-Cons (leftists and globalists posing as conservatives) like Lindsay Graham and Mitt Romney, and it’s difficult to see how we will be able to avoid an escalation. There are people on both sides trying to trigger greater bloodshed and anyone who calls for peace comes under threat of assassination.
Russia and Vladimir Putin have culpability of their own and one could argue that the east vs west paradigm is itself a brand of theater. However, the evidence for now leans heavily towards globalist think-tank instigation, leading to the Maidan coup in Ukraine in 2014, the flood of NATO weapons and “advisers” into the country under the Obama Administration and the deep involvement of Lindsay Graham, John McCain and The Atlantic Council in attempts to secure EU and NATO membership for the country; a red line which Russia consistently warned would lead to confrontation.
Keep in mind, the promise made by NATO to Russia in the 1990s was that they would not attempt to move east once Russia tore down the Berlin Wall and unified Germany. NATO activities in Ukraine violate that promise in numerous ways.
In January of 2022 I predicted that open war in the region was highly likely given the ultimate failure of the covid lockdowns and mandates (The Great Reset plan). The establishment needed a new global crisis to instill public fear, and they also needed a scapegoat for the ongoing stagflationary decline in the west. It’s only natural that they would turn to the classic fallback of world war after their previous agenda failed to get the results they wanted.
In September of 2022 after NATO flooded Ukraine with weapons and foreign “mercenaries” I predicted that Russia would adopt an attrition warfare strategy with increased attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure. This has been their strategy ever since and now Ukraine faces a winter with an 85% loss in their power grid as Russian forces roll forward mile by mile on the Eastern and southern fronts.
Russian forces are taking long standing Ukrainian strongholds with complex defensive works and Ukrainian troop strength is dwindling. Ukraine is losing the war by every metric and I now predict they have a year or less before complete defensive collapse.
The corporate media will not talk about these developments. They will diminish them until Russia is on the verge of gaining a vast amount of ground and then they will act indignant, saying “How could this have happened?” Then they will call for western troops to enter the fray (it’s already starting).
The only thing that might stop this outcome is Donald Trump’s promise to force negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv on day one of his administration. The problem is, that’s another two months away and the globalists are using that window of time to sabotage any future peace efforts. Their goal is to turn the proxy war into an open international conflagration.
“But how do they turn the proxy war into a world war without looking like the bad guys? That’s the trick, isn’t it?
The proxy (in this case, Ukraine) would have to take actions that provoke Russia into an explosive outburst. Russia would have to utilize tactics or weaponry that puts a vast number of civilians at risk, requiring greater NATO involvement and perhaps even UN intervention…”
I noted that the greenlight for use of long range missile systems provided by the US and Europe could be the trigger the globalists were looking for:
“Long range strikes into Russia, I believe, will set in motion more Russian strikes on major cities in the west of Ukraine where the majority of the population lives. These areas have gone largely untouched during the duration of the war. Putin, despite what the media claims, has been careful to limit the targeting of larger civilian centers. That will end if NATO missiles hit Russian cities…”
“The idea that ballistic volleys into Russia using NATO supplied missiles won’t result in Putin using MOABs or nukes is truly insane. Keep in mind, long range strikes into Russia will do nothing to change the conditions on the ground in the Donbas…”
I outlined why this strategy was beneficial for globalist think tanks in light of an impending Trump presidency.
“Donald Trump is looking increasingly likely to be the winner of the presidential race. I have long held that the globalists will wrap up an economic collapse or a world war and throw it in Trump’s lap. They already tried to do the same thing with the covid pandemic and the inflationary crisis.
“The timing of the Kursk offensive and the call for missile strikes on Russia is not a coincidence. Trump claims that his intention is to end the Ukraine war as quickly as possible once he enters office.”
“They need to escalate the war into something bigger, something that can’t be undone. Right now, the war can be ended – All it takes is some diplomacy and forcing Ukraine to understand that they’re not going to get the Donbas or Crimea back no matter how many lives they sacrifice. But if there are massive civilian casualties on either side, the situation becomes irreversible.”
I want to point out that you don’t need a crystal ball to predict the path of this conflict; the stages and outcomes are relatively clear if you understand the hidden motivations behind the war. Most of the events I outlined in August have now happened, but only because these are the events that MUST happen in order to get to the end game of WWIII.
After Trump’s landslide election win this month the Biden Administration responded by giving the greenlight for Ukraine to use long range ATACMS deeper inside Russian territory. The decision was reportedly made to “Trump-proof” the Ukraine war and prevent a quick resolution before he entered office.
The ATACMS would do nothing to change the immediate conditions on the battlefield. ATACMS are precision guided munitions designed for surgical strikes on high value targets, they are not very useful in winning a war of attrition. The reason these weapons are so controversial is because they CANNOT be fired without help from NATO technicians and satellites. Meaning, Biden’s decision represents an open declaration of war on Russia.
In response, the Kremlin reportedly fired a nuclear capable IRBM (an RS-26 Rubezh missile) on the city of Dniprio. The weapon had multiple warheads and video evidence shows all of them apparently striking the target. Luckily, none of those warheads were carrying a nuclear payload.
The strike occurred right after Putin changed Russia’s nuclear defense policy and this appears to be a final warning. Globalist think tanks like The Atlantic Council continue to claim that Putin’s red lines are a “farce” and that he will never use nukes. I think that they know Putin is not bluffing and that they intend to poke the bear until they get a limited nuclear attack. I believe the chances are very high for at least one nuke strike within Ukraine if conditions continue to deteriorate with NATO.
Some will argue that there’s no way this will happen because Russia would be obliterated by nuclear retaliation. I suspect that in the face of a nuke strike in Ukraine, NATO will do nothing. They certainly won’t escalate to a global exchange of ICBMs.
The globalists have little to gain by incinerating decades of work building the mass surveillance systems and digital economic infrastructure they need for their “New World Order.” Ukraine just isn’t worth it. What such an incident would do, though, is open the door to wider war on multiple fronts between the east and the west.
If the war is escalated beyond the zero point before Trump gets into office, then Trump may have no other choice than to commit the US to the conflict despite vast public disapproval. It would be disastrous for his administration, disastrous for conservatives and disastrous for the western world at large. The majority of the public will NOT volunteer to fight for Ukraine and conscription would be an invitation to civil unrest.
Leftists hate Russia because the media tells them to, but they aren’t going to risk their lives for Ukraine. Conservatives definitely aren’t going to submit to a draft and most of us would rather go to war against the globalists instead.
Putin is savvy enough to wait for Trump to enter office and start negotiations, but my greatest concern is that something is about to happen which will sabotage any eventual peace plan. A long range attack by Ukraine on a major civilian center, a nuclear power plant, or the assassination of a political figure using NATO weaponry would be the only spark needed to light the powder keg. Putin will be required to show Russia is not weak and follow through on his red line threats.
There’s a good chance that we will see a mushroom cloud over Ukraine (or adjacent region) in the near future unless there is serious intervention to defuse the conflict. The next two months will be key.
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ROBERT H TO US;
What will we see tomorrow
Robert Hryniak
5:33 PM (1 hour ago)
to
Russia has issued another Notice To Air Missions (NOTAM) closing its air space over Kapustin Yar. This was the place from which Russia launched its new Oreshnik Ballistic Missile ( Hazelnut) at Dnipro, Ukraine last Thursday. After 3 receiving more attacks, it seems Russia is ready to serve another example of reach.No doubt this time there will be a demonstration of reach not just destruction. Think everything from the Middle East to Alaska … More than likely it will be military targets of size and cost.
END
This was on Russian TV today
HOW FAST CAN THE ORESHNIK MISSILE HIT US BASES ACROSS THE WORLD?
1. Middle East
Distance and flight time from southern Russia:
US airbase in Kuwait: 2,100 km, 11 minutes;
US 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain: 2,500 km, 12 minutes;
US Air Base in Qatar: 2,650 km, 13 minutes;
US Air Base in Djibouti: 4,100 km, 20 minutes.
2. Pacific and Alaska
Distance and flight time from Kamchatka:
Air Base in Alaska: 2,400 km, 12 minutes;
US Air Force and Navy Base in Guam: 4,500 km, 22 minutes;
US Air Force and Navy Bases in Pearl Harbor: 5,100 km, 25 minutes.
3. Minuteman III missile silos
Distance and flight time from Chukotka:
Minuteman III missile silos in Montana: 4,700 km, 23 minutes;
Minuteman III missile silos in Minot, North Dakota: 4,900 km, 24 minutes.
END
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
ROBERT H TO US:
Drumbeats of escalation are getting louder
“What will NATO do?
Today just after 12:00 EST 5 NATO surveillance planes have started to circle Kaliningrad. Why? They are sitting ducks if hostilities commence as S400 systems lie awake and trying to pinpoint their radar locations is not going to work as Russians can spoof the locations. Besides other systems are in position to give a layered defense. It will be no cakewalk to strike there. And even if this was to occur, the response would be severe. A loss of Kaliningrad would not be without a loss of cities like New York, London, Paris etc. Complete madness with no win. Why play a game where you lose each time a war is gamed out?
Yesterday, Russia issued a NOTAM on air space over Kapustin Yar as an another “test” of Hazelnut comes forth. Air space is closed from today until the 30th. Proof exists of further use of US supplied ATACMS missiles in strikes this week on Russia. So there may be a reason why yesterday on Russian TV sites of US potential bases were televised. My guess is for now Ukraine will pay a price. The Ukraine is finished as a country. What pieces remain in the future will be picked over by the likes Poland, Romania and Hungary as they seize ancestral lands. Current Ukrainian leadership will head West with their stolen loot to welcoming arms of select countries.”
Did the US Neocons declare their true intent by expressing the possibility of a preemptive strike against Russia? Lavrov plainly stated today that NATO has lost all decency. Perhaps in the eyes of the non western world this is the case. Neither NATO nor the US is on a position to militarily win against Russia. This is a reality. Yes, the world can go nuclear and most of us will die with no winners. But any idea that a 1st strike will win the day is a delusion. The Russian “dead hand” is active and in full control of all nuclear weapons. Even if all Russian leadership could be killed in a 1st strike the “dead hand “ will survive and rain 1000’s of nukes upon Europe and America. There is no win. Thus such talk is mute upon uttering.
It is pointless to talk about such nonsense as it is hype and not substance. As for Russia, the decision to turn Eastward is looking more astute. Russia does not need the West. That day and time is over. Watch Afghanistan where Shoigu is today and the changing defense agreements with countries like North Korea. And soon it will be Iran and others. Do you know that China has now replaced the West with their own operating system in all their cellphones going forward? Goodbye Android and Apple. Did anyone calculate longer term fallout?
Fortress Global South is alive and well and growing. More focus should be put on China selling passenger jets to Brazil rather than Boeing or Air Bus with orders. As for Russia they are replacing all Western planes with their own aircraft. Whether the West cares to believe or accept the fact world is being divided quickly. And utterances of 1st strikes are passé in a world that has already sailed.
As Western Trade falls flat in the Global South replaced by entities part of that bloc; we all need to ask questions about where new business will come from. Because the West is in a recession that will likely get a whole bunch worse. Upcoming tariffs by a new US administration may be useful for a short time. If that time is to rebuild western industry. If not it mores than likely cause further retreat into recession causing a collapse of Western economies. The time has changed enough that the West no longer leads in many industries like it did in the past. If that lead in industries is not recovered fast the mantle of hegemony will shift to China within a decade leaving the west to struggle with a lower standard of living. Germany is a live example of what can happen elsewhere. How the West copes with change remains to be seen.
END
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
Actor/rapper Saafir; Wheel of Fortune presenter Chuck Woolery; rockers Dennis Bryon, Colin “Smiley” Petersen (Bee Gees), Chris Lindblad (Admiral Angry), Mike Pinera (Iron Butterfly); 61 infants; more
Rapper Saafir has died at the age of 54. The star, born as Reggie Gibson, was famed for his jazz-infused style and distinctive voice. Saafir faced several health challenges in recent years and had been forced to use a wheelchair. In July 1992, he was a passenger on TWA Flight 843 that crash-landed after an aborted takeoff. He hurt his back after jumping out of the burning aircraft before the emergency slide was put up. In 2005 Saafir had a cancerous tumor removed from his spine. His cause of death has not been revealed.
Legendary Wheel of Fortune presenter Chuck Woolery dies
November 24, 2024
Legendary Wheel of Fortune and dating game host Chuck Woolery has died at the age of 83. The TV personality diedat his home in Texas on Saturday, after suddenlyfalling ill. Chuck’s longtime friend and podcast cohost Mark Young confirmed the news. The circumstances around Chuck’s death have not been confirmed. However, Mark told TMZ that while he was visiting him at his home, Chuck wasn’t feeling well and went to lie down. He later returned to the room to tell him that he was having trouble breathing and Mark called 911, but Chuck did not make it.
Hollywood agent and producer Cal Boyington is dead at 53
November 22, 2024
Hollywood agent Michael Carlton Boyington has been found deadat his home at the age of 53. Known as ‘Cal’, Boyington was a producer and talent agent known for his work on MTV ‘s The Osbournes and Workaholics. Variety reported that he was found unresponsiveat his home in Los Angeles on Monday. His brother, B.G. Dickey, has said that his cause of death is not yet known.
‘Jeopardy!’ fans mourn death of show legend Bruce Seymour
November 19, 2024
San Francisco, CA – Former Super Jeopardy! winner Bruce Seymour, who won a total of $305,989 on the iconic game show, has died. He was 77. According to a Legacy.com obituary, Seymour passed away on September 18, 2024, following a seven-week battle with a COVID infection. He was described as having been in “excellent health” prior to his infection.
Drummer Dennis Bryon has died at age 76, making him the second Bee Gees star to pass away in the past week. Bryon’s death last Thursday came just four days before the death of fellow Bee Gees drummer Colin “Smiley” Petersen at age 78. Blue Weaver – who played alongside him in another band named Amen Corner – announced Bryon’s death in Nashville, Tennessee, in a Facebook post. He said: “I am lost for words at the moment. Dennis has passed away…This was such a shock.”
Admiral Angry vocalist Chris Lindblad has passed away
November 23, 2024
Chris Lindblad, the vocalist for the sludge metal band Admiral Angry, passed away on November 20 due to an unspecified illness. Brandon Gillichbauer, ex-Admiral Angry and current Black Sheep Wall bassist, broke the news on the on social media on Friday, November 22.
Legendary Juice Crew singer TJ Swan has died at 57
November 22, 2024
Juice Crew harmonizer TJ Swan has died at age 57, according to Juice Crew matriarch Roxanne Shante. Swan was known for his Bally shoes, silk shirts, and his unforgettable hooks on hits such as “Nobody Beats The Biz”, “Make The Music With Your Mouth Biz”, “Left Me Lonely”, “Albee Square Mall”, and “Evolution”. “We are sad to announce the passing of our Hip Hop Brother TJ Swan, the original Bally silk shirt king,” Shante posted to IG, confirming he died on Friday morning, November 22. Nocause of death has been announced.
Mike Pinera, guitarist for Blues Image & Iron Butterfly, dies at 76
November 22, 2024
Guitarist-vocalist Mike Pinera, who co-wrote the 1970 top 5 hit “Ride, Captain, Ride” for the band Blues Image, then joined Iron Butterfly, Ramatam, and Alice Cooper’s Special Forces band, died on Nov. 20 at age 76. The news was confirmed by the St. Pete Catalyst website, based near his hometown. The cause of death was reportedly liver failure. Pinera had been ill for some time; a GoFundMe page was created in early 2024 to raise funds for a liver transplant, but had stopped accepting donations several months ago.
Former Long Island, NY, Rough Riders defender Dahir Mohammed, who also played in Major League Soccer with the MetroStars and New England Revolution, has passed away. He was 51.Nocause of death was given for Mohammed, who died on Wednesday.
Swim coach Mona Nyheim-Canales dies of breast cancer
November 24, 2024
Swim coach Mona Nyheim-Canales, 59, has died after a battle with cancer. Canales was diagnosed with metastatic breastcancerlast year while coaching as the head age group coach of Pitchfork Aquatics in Arizona. Nyheim-Canales was a lecturer on the international circuit for both the International Olympic Committee and FINA, and served as the Director for High Performance in Istanbul for the Turkish Swimming Federation.
Connor Costello, age 30, of Southborough, MA, passed awayunexpectedly on November 8, 2024. Born and raised in Southborough, Connor developed a deep passion for sports, with basketball holding a special place in his heart. After graduating from high school, he pursued his love for the game at Hobart College and then Salve Regina College, later traveling to Europe to play professional basketball. He would frequently travel back and forth between Europe and the U.S. to train and compete. In addition to basketball, Connor had a love for both cooking and nutrition. He was an excellent cook and helped friends and family have healthier diets and lifestyles.
NBA star Isaiah Thomas announces tragic death of his sister
November 21, 2024
NBA star Isaiah Thomas is mourning the loss of his older sister after announcing her tragic death in a heartbreaking post on social media. Thomas, 35, wrote alongside a photo of late sister LaQuisha Baldtrip on Instagram: ‘Ima miss you big sis!!!! Damn how you leave me too? 2 sisters gone!!! This can’t be real. I love and miss you Queen.’ The cause of LaQuisha’s death is currently unknown. Thomas, who is on the Phoenix Suns’ books, lost another of his sisters, Chyna, following a fatal car crash in Washington in April 2017.
Donna Gregory, 61, a veteran North Carolina journalist, has died after being diagnosed with stage 4 lung cancer in April, WWAY 3 announced on Wednesday, Nov. 20. Gregory shared her cancer journey with viewers. In April, she published “a special message” on WWAY 3, saying she learned of her cancer diagnosis after getting a biopsy following “months of trying to determine what was causing recurring coughing, shortness of breath, fatigue and weight loss.” Gregory “confronted her illness with grace and determination, undergoing immunotherapy and chemotherapy while remaining a beacon of hope and inspiration,” WWAY 3 said on Wednesday.
Brian Wilson collaborator and ‘Spongebob’ composer dies at 72
November 20, 2024
Andy Paley, a veteran producer and musician who worked with a wide range of artists including Brian Wilson, the Ramones, Madonna, Jonathan Richman, Elton John, Deborah Harry, NRBQ and many others, died following a brief battle with cancer, a rep confirms to Variety. He also worked extensively in film and television, composing scores and writing songs for such top animated series as “SpongeBob SquarePants,” “Ren & Stimpy,” “Digimon” and others. He was 72.
Lock Haven, Pennsylvania – Jevon David Flatt, Jr., born October 20, 2024, passed away peacefully Tuesday, November 19, 2024 at his home. He was a happy baby who almost always had a smile on his face. He loved lights, especially Christmas lights.
hit Russian soil with western missiles etc. that this can activate a nuclear war? Who is doing this driving us to WW III? Who are the deranged crazy lunatics doing this?
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
This is what they are going to say, they who brought this to drive you to take more mRNA vaccine as they bring fraud PCR created avian bird flu non-pandemic; YOU will DIE, they don’t care
You can either accept and be part of it or stand up and say NO!
Say NO to the ‘new and improved’ mRNA vaccines. This too is and will be a fraud lie.
There is no evidence today that any mRNA vaccine worked to save one life, no evidence, just evidence of deaths. It has all been a fraud.
Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
We are at cross-roads here, do we join them or try to beat them? This is the question. Do we join them, try to beat them for the crimes, or just try to walk away.
I say we work together to beat them, to beat this. Beat all those who seek to turn and be part of the mRNA technology business, who was against the mRNA and OWS one day and now for it. There is only one set of facts, one truth.
mRNA technology gene vaccines by Pfizer and Moderna etc. are and were ineffective and deadly. Unsafe. All involved know this. Knew this.
Are you with me? Are you with us who will not bend and will not be bought? That we wage the magnus opus battle now?
Despicable animals are these FEMA people, handing out tents? After all this time NC people in tents? & snow coming down? Venezuelan, Haitian illegals them sleep in hotels, $3500 cash, FEMA gave them..
FEMA employee telling a lady in North Carolina, house destroyed, standing in feet of mud today, with 2 children that she has lots more on her she could give her, lots of ‘stuff’ but Trump’s signs outside bother her? That the Trump election signs ‘bother’ her? So, can’t give you more? What the hell is this in these FEMA miscreants? …with a FEMA uniform on…you bishes in FEMA today, after so long after Helene, handing out tents? In the cold? Telling media that the North Carolina survivors etc. ‘like’ the tents and prefer the tents? Prefer tents? In the cold? No running water?
Your FEMA bishes, you Biden and Harris and Obama et al., you housed illegal immigrants in luxury hotels, using FEMA funds which are not available for US citizens whose homes have been destroyed by hurricanes? I wish all you bishes go to hell, literal hell! It is inexcusable for FEMA to act this way. You FEMA peoples should be punished to the full extent of the law.
Yet you bishes at FEMA, you Biden, you Harris and you wonder why you lost? You bishes stole our tax money and gave it to illegals? While our peoples after Helene live in tents? Where is the FEMA money? You have illegals by the millions staying in the Red Roof Inn in Niagara Falls USA, dressing in expensive clothing our kids can never have, 3,500 cash cards a month, free health care we cannot get, free hotel and homes while North Carolinians live on the street in knee deep mud?
I tell you FEMA is one agency that must be hosed down, taken to the studs and most fired! These are bad people, yes, I said it, many FEMA are just bad human beings for how they treated North Carolinians etc. That you can offer tents to hard working tax-paying Americans while you take our EFF in tax money and put likely criminal illegals who broke our laws to enter USA, you give them money and all free stuff and nice places to live? Are you EFF in kidding me?
We need Trump on deck faster than January 20th 2025…can’t come fast enough! I can’t wait, we pray for Trump’s safety and peace and that he hits the road running on day 1.
University of Georgia to Roll Back Far-Left DEI PoliciesIn a setback for the divisive agenda of President Joe Biden and the Democrats, the University of Georgia is rolling back its far-left Marxism-rooted “Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion” (DEI) policies.READ MORE
Trump Nominates Prominent Physician/COVID Activist for Fauci’s Old JobPresident-elect Donald Trump has nominated prominent physician Jay Bhattacharya to serve as the next director of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), a job that was previously held by Dr. Anthony Fauci from 1984 to 2022. “I am thrilled to nominate Jay Bhattacharya, MD, PhD, to serve as Director of the National Institutes of Health. Dr. Bhattacharya will work in …READ THE FULL REPORT
Trudeau Comes Running to Trump Immediately Following Tariff ThreatCanadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau reportedly called President-elect Donald Trump on Monday night, just hours after Trump threatened to enact tariffs against Canada for border security issues. “Shortly after Trump’s post, Trudeau contacted Trump and the two leaders spoke by phone,” said Bloomberg News reporter Brian Platt. “According to a source, they talked border security and it was a ‘constructive …READ THE FULL REPORT
WATCH: Republican on CNN stuns panel when he echoes CNN’s own reporting about XRepublican Scott Jennings stunned the panel on CNN when echoed CNN’s very own reporting about X being the most ideologically balanced social media platform. Jennings pointed to a new poll out by Pew that showed the balance of opinion on X matched the electorate that just voted for President-elect Trump. But as soon as Jennings mentioned this, he was met …READ THE FULL REPORT
Kamala’s Loss to Trump Worsens After Final Batch of VotesPresident-elect Donald Trump’s final lead over Vice President Kamala Harris continues to grow as votes from late-counting states are tallied, including in a key swing state that narrowly went for him on election night. The Western Journal reported on the ongoing tallying in Arizona, a state up for grabs heading into Election Day which Trump ultimately carried after winning the …READ THE FULL REPORT
Biden Judge Under Fire After Controversial Decision on Transgender Volleyball PlayerA federal judge appointed by President Joe Biden ruled Monday that a man claiming to be a woman will be allowed to play in a tournament for the women’s volleyball team for California’s San Jose State University — over the objections of the co-captain of the San Jose State team as well as other women who play for competing schools. …READ THE FULL REPORT
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
Secret Russian “Ship To Ship” Oil Switching Moves To New Greek Hotspot After Naval Drills
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 07:45 AM
For much of the past three years, tankers carrying Russian crude oil – usually in violation of western embargo – skirted western sanctions and oversight by engaged in so-called Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers somewhere in the open sea far from prying eyes and even further from hostile coast guard supervision.
The practice, usually carried out in secret with digital tracking beacons switched off or falsified, can help to obscure the origins of the oil, helping to beat sanctions. It also creates another layer of separation between the buyers and sellers of cargoes.
Of course, to keep STS as a viable option, the places where it takes place have to change periodically. And as Bloomberg reports, the secret switching of Russian fuel cargoes between tankers at sea has migrated to new hotspots off the coast of Greece after the European country used naval drills to try and block the activity in one location.
About 1 million barrels a month of diesel, fuel oil and other petroleum products has been getting flipped near the islands of Lesbos and Chios in the Aegean Sea, according to data from analytics firm Vortexa.
The area only became popular after Greece’s navy carried out drills around the Laconian Gulf, previously the No. 1 site for the practice in Europe.
A recent surge in ship-to-ship transfers involving Russian oil and fuel in and around Europe has raised environmental concerns because of question marks over the safety and insurance of the vessels involved. Not only that, but the fact that the activity has been soaring confirms that nobody takes the threat of western sanctions seriously any more.
Ship-to-ship switching is still happening close by the Laconian Gulf, but at a much-reduced rate since Greece’s naval drills began. The maneuvers left a narrow stretch of water unaffected and it’s in that location that they’re still taking place.
The transfers have also become regular off the Italian port of Augusta since May, when the Greek navy began its exercises. On November 14, the drills were extended until mid-March.
While the recent crackdown on Russian STS may have delayed the activity, it certainly won’t stop it. And in any event, it pales in comparison to the unprecedented STS activity taking place 40 miles east off the Malaysian peninsula which is the “the world’s largest gathering point for dark fleet tankers”…
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/ MEXICO/TARIFFS /USA/CHINA/VIET NAM
Why Trump’s Tariffs Underwhelmed The Market, And Why Was Vietnam Excluded
Tuesday, Nov 26, 2024 – 06:50 PM
As we reported last night, president-elect Trump announced he intends to levy a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% tariff on imports from China. Tariffs on Mexico and Canada would remain in place until the flow of “drugs, in particular fentanyl, and all illegal aliens stop,” while tariffs on China would remain in place “until such time as [the drugs that are pouring into our country] stop”. He also stated that on January 20th he would “sign all necessary documents” to implement the tariffs on Mexico and Canada as one of his “many first Executive Orders”.
To be sure, Trump has proposed most of this before, in different forms:
in May 2019, he announced a tariff that would rise to 25% on imports from Mexico, effective 10 days later, if Mexico did not address immigration, but the tariff was never imposed.
On Nov. 4, 2024, he also pledged to impose a 25% tariff on all imports from Mexico, again related to immigration.
On Canada, he has announced the intent to renegotiate USMCA but has not formally threatened tariffs, so the announcement is somewhat more surprising.
On China, the tariffs are notably lower than the 60% he proposed during the campaign but, if imposed, might not be the only tariff on imports from China.
Overall, the announcement is more reminiscent of the first Trump administration, when such tariffs were announced as a negotiating tactic, rather than the more systematic tariff policies (e.g., the 10-20% “universal baseline tariff”) Trump frequently discussed during the campaign.
Some more details: 43% of US goods imports come from Mexico (15.4%), Canada (13.6%), and China (13.9%).
At the proposed tariff rates, this would generate slightly less than $300bn (or 1.0% of GDP) in tariff revenue annually, without accounting for dynamic effects, such as changes to import volumes and prices or taxable incomes, and boost the US effective tariff rate by 8.6% (Goldman’s rule of thumb is that every 1% increase in the effective tariff rate would raise core PCE prices by 0.1%), while the proposed tariff increases would also boost core PCE prices by 0.9% if implemented.
In its commentary on the tariff announcement, Goldman political analyst Alex Phillips writes that while he had assumed tariffs on imports from China will rise early next year, it is more likely Mexico and Canada will avoid across-the-board tariffs. Phillips also notes that if implemented, these are about three times as large as the China and auto tariffs the bank assumes in its baseline economic forecasts but slightly smaller than a 10% universal tariff.
In a separate note from Goldman Delta One trader Rich Privorotsky (available here for pro subs), he writes that the bigger surprise in the Trump proposal is Canada. To this point, Goldman tried to calibrate the FX impact of tariffs by assessing the importance of US trade for different economies and the complexity of the products they produce: here the Loonie stands out too.
Privo also found it curious that China’s HSI was actually up for most the session having now eventually back some its gains (now unch) and believes that “if tariffs on China went up only another 10% I think relative to expectations that have been built up this might be taken as a modest positive.”
Privorotsky also suggests that Trump’s announcement is another part of the wall of worry for Europe. Tariffs are known risk (unknown in magnitude) and “it’s the waiting that is really the problem.” So while it make sense for European stocks to be down in sympathy on the news (especially after some hopefulness that recent cabinet picks might mean a less hawkish approach), he would argue that a 25% tariff on Canada (biggest source of trade is the import of energy) is likely more of a negotiating tactic rather than a likely outcome.
Bottom line: while the CAD will lurch lower on this, it will likely find support.
Turning to China, Goldman’s EM strategist Sun Lu focuses on the silver lining, i.e., “it’s priced in”, and lays out the following analysis (excerpted from her full note available to pro subs).
Dovish views:
if Trump starts with China on 10% tariff in order to push China stop fentanyl into US, this is one of the easy areas to agree with China during previous trade talks and bilateral meetings. In August, China already agreed with Biden administration to impose controls on production of critical chemicals for the manufacturing of fentanyl.
Trump clearly wants to use these tariffs as leverage, to push Canada, Mexico and China to impose tougher restrictions on the above matters, thus there is a clear path of tariff suspension if such conditions are met.
FX response:
CNY fixing still sticky, onshore spot above 7.25. MXN and CAD response more. Post headline, USDCNY midpoint fixing came in 7.1910, 8pips below last reflecting weaker DXY yesterday. Fixing bias is 484pips on the stronger side, similar magnitude compared to recent week. This fixing follows similar sticky pattern as seen in recent weeks, with clear bias to defend 7.2 in fixing this year.
Goldman continues to expect PBOC may defend 7.2 fixing and limit CNH selloff to 7.30 area this year, before actual tariff announcement and prepare for negotiations. USDCNH TN may go higher again after the recent dip. CNH pressure trades including points higher and long USDCNH-USDCNY basis may benefit again.
Meanwhile, onshore USDCNY spot went above 7.25 for the first time in recent month. With today’s fixing, onshore spot can theoretically go up to 7.3348 still, per 2% daily trading band.
In comparison, MXN and CAD has reacted more, selling off ~1% vs 20bp for CNH. In Asia, the other currencies with strong intervention willingness at current level (KRW, IDR) are likely to continue outperform.
What trades does Lu like? Continue to like owning 1y USDCNH, USDTWD and USDSGD topside, funded by selling short-dated downside. The Goldman strategist prefers to be long USD ahead of actual tariff announcements rather than just headlines.
Finally, we go to Goldman EM vol trader trader Sanjiv Nanwani who writes that “the market remains in a holding pattern despite early AM tariff headlines – but as far as China is concerned, the tariffs seem to underwhelm what is already expected, and in any case, the authorities are clearly unwilling to let FX move as evidenced by the ~unchanged USDCNY fix today.”
The vol market seems to suggest the same – don’t expect spot to do a whole lot before the inauguration. Nanwani found that a little surprising, “as we now have confirmation that Trump is already contemplating tariff policy and is prepared to announce them ahead of his formal inauguration, which the market will surely have to re-price in response to.”
Nanwani likes owning some cheap 1mth USD calls here, notwithstanding the poor realized performance (suppressed by the fix) over the past 1-2 weeks. Further out, the market remains very keen on holding onto term premium, keeping calendars uber steep but creating a very high bar for the delivery of realized performance – there is a real risk that the premium decay on some option structures will more than offset expected gains from delta. He therefore likes vol-selling strategies in 3mth+ expiries, particularly via USD bull seagulls, to benefit from both the inverted forward curve and steep vol curve. ATM run: 1m 4.6 3m 6.1 6m 6.6 1y 6.9.
It’s not just Goldman however: in a note to clients (available to pro subs), SouthBay Research this morning reminds us that while attention is focused on China, it really should be on Vietnam; here’s why:
In 2012, Vietnam exported $19B in goods to the United States. A lot of raw materials and foodstuffs, and a lot of assembled electronic parts. By 2017, 5 years later, the value was $49B. This year, it is likely to reach $133B.
Not coincidentally, Chinese exports to the US have dwindled over the same period. And by almost the same amount.
Vietnam isn’t the only way Chinese production enters the US and bypasses trade and tariffs on Chinese goods. Mexico has become a major off ramp as well.
Here is the timeline to consider:
2017 – Trump initiates a trade war
2018/2019 – China leverages Vietnam to begin bypassing restrictions. Chinese direct exports fall, Vietnam’s exports surge
2020-22 – Trend reverses as China exports recover (Trump exit, COVID drives consumer demand). Port congestion elevates Mexico as an alternative route into the US
2023-24 – China direct exports continue to fall and indirect exports continue to rise
Next, and especially for all the inflation alarmists, it is worth noting that there was minimal inflationary impact in the last trade war:
Trump initiated tariffs on China in 2018 and the downstream impact on consumer prices was minimal at best. A key reason is that China is so dependent on US market access that they absorbed the higher costs and kept prices relatively flat.
Fast forward to today and China is even more economically weak today and even more dependent on keeping factories running, which is why they may absorb another round of tariff-induced hits. It is likely that Chinese government support will increase in order to prioritize capacity utilization & employment over profits.
In this context, the real question – according to Southbay – is why doesn’t Trump also Tariff Vietnam?
Consider this: in 2023, registered Chinese investment in Vietnam was $8.3B. Thanks to offshoring production by Chinese manufacturers, Vietnam has become a player in the global supply chain.
This is a response to Trump initiated tariffs whereby OEMs like Apple want to de-risk their exposure to China. Despite proclamations of de-risking and ‘internationalizing the supply chain’, these moves don’t really change the reality that products and components are still sourced from Chinese producers.
Given that it’s obviously a shell-game, why isn’t Trump lumping Vietnam into the anti-China trade tariffs? Here, geopolitics is the most likely reason.
There is a containment policy in place. While it’s nice to talk about democracy, the major reason for US support of Taiwan is power projection: Taiwan sits at the underbelly of China. With South Korea and Japan to the East, and Taiwan and the Philippines to the South, the US and allies have China surrounded. In case war breaks out with China, a naval blockade would be very effective and complete.
Or almost complete, as Vietnam would seal the deal. Turning Vietnam into a friendly ally would plug a big hole in the shipping routes out of Hong Kong. Ships would have to thread a path between Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan.
In other words, it’s not just negotiation, but more like foreplay… and at the moment there is a courtship underway. China is throwing billions of dollars at Vietnam. The US not so much. But Vietnam is wary of China and might want an American military presence.
Trump belligerence towards Vietnam would not create necessary goodwill. Which also means that as long as Trump plays softball with Vietnam, China will continue to bypass most if not all of the tariff threat.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS WEDNESDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0533 UP 30 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 151.33 DOWN 1.594 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2619 UP .0048
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4053 UP 0.0001 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 1 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 50.02 PTS OR 1.53%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 443.93 OR 2.32%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .55%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL MOSTLY RED
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL MOSTLY RED
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 443.93 PTS OR 2.32%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 50.02 PTS OR 1.53%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP .55%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED DOWN 309.03 PTS OR 0.80%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2652.55
silver:$30.50
USA dollar index early WEDNESDAY morning: 106.34 DOWN 63 BASIS POINTS FROM TUESDAY’s CLOSE.
The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED UP 7.2463(ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (UP)…. (7.2532)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.66 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.056
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield DOWN 5 in basis points from WEDNESDAY at 4.258% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.439 DOWN 4 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.219 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2650.90
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.43
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: WEDNESDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 16.14 PTS OR 0.20%
German Dax : CLOSED DOWN 34.23 OR 0.18%
Paris CAC CLOSED DOWN 51.48 PTS OR 0.72%
Spain IBEX CLOSED DOWN 38.40 OR 0.33%
Italian MIB: CLOSED DOWN 77.92 OR 0.23%
WTI Oil price 69.12 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 73.13 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 112.77 ROUBLE DOWN 7 AND 25/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.1710 DOWN 4 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.3510 DOWN 6 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.273 DOWN 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.125 DOWN 3
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0562 UP 0.0070 OR 70 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2672 UP 0.0099 OR 99 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.295 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.057
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 151.14 DOWN 1.783 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4034 DOWN 0.0018 CDN dollar UP 18 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.72
Brent OIL: 72.84
USA 10 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS pts to 4.262
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 4 BASIS PTS to 4.434%
USA 2 YR BOND: DOWN 5 PTS AT 4.225
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.223 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.075 DOWN 7 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.07 DOWN 90 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.64 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 113.13 UP 7 AND 64/100 roubles
GOLD 2,637.30 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.09 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 138.25 PTS OR 0.31%
NASDAQ UP 178.41 PTS OR 0.85%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 14.16 UP 0.06 PTS OR 0.43%
GLD: $243.49 UP 0.54 OR 0.22%
SLV/ $27,45 DOWN 0.35 OR 1.26%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:UP 60.25 PTS OR 0.24%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Bitcoin, Bonds, & Bullion Bid; Big-Tech & The Buck Tumble Into Turkey Day
MORNING TRADING
II USA DATA
strange data: initial claims at all time lows yet continuous claims at 3 year highs.. Go figure!
(zeroehdge)
Continuing Jobless Claims Top 1.9 Million Americans – Highest In 3 Years
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 08:39 AM
The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time fell to 213k last week (from 215k) – the lowest since April 2024…
Source: Bloomberg
However, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, claims hit a four month high.
California was by far the largest single state increase in new claims while New Jersey saw a small decline…
Meanwhile continuing jobless rose to 1.907 million Americans – the highest in three years…
Source: Bloomberg
So, take your pick – the labor market is hot (claims at 7mo lows) or very cold (cont claims at 3 year highs)?
end
second estimate of Q3 GDP unchanged at 2.8% and probably will end around there when the final estimate is released next month
(zerohedge)
Q3 GDP Unchanged At 2.8% In Second Estimate
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 09:08 AM
Nobody expected today’s second estimat of Q3 GDP to be a riveting print, and nobody was disappointed when it wasn’t. After printing at 2.8% one month ago in the preliminary report, moments ago Biden’s outgoing Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the second estimate of growth in the quarter ended Sept 30 was unchanged, at 2.8%, and in line with estimates; it was down fractionally from the 3.0% Q2 GDP print.
Here are the Q3 GDP details:
Personal consumption rose annualized 3.5% q/q, below the estimate +3.7% (est. range +3.5% to +3.8%).
GDP price index rose annualized 1.9% q/q, above the estimate +1.8% (est. range +1.8% to +1.9%).
Core personal consumption rose annualized 2.1% q/q, below the estimate +2.2% (est. range +2.1% to +2.3%).
Gross domestic income rose annualized 2.2% q/q
According to the BEA, compared to the second quarter, the deceleration in real GDP primarily reflected a downturn in inventory investment and a larger decrease in housing investment. These movements were partly offset by accelerations in exports, consumer spending, and federal government spending. Imports accelerated.
Looking at the change between the prelim print and the second estimate, the increase in Q3 GDP “reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, and business investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.“
Personal consumption contributed 2.37% to the bottom-line GDP print of 2.82%, down fractionally from 2.46% in the firs estimate
Fixed investment added 0.31%, up from 0.24% in the first estimate
The change in private inventories subtracted 0.11% from the GDP print, a reduction from the -0.17% in the first estimate.
Net trade was roughly flat, as net exports subtracted 0.58% from the GDP, up modestly from 0.55% in the first estimate.
Government consumption was also flattish at 0.83%, down from 0.85%
And visually:
While stale, some were looking at the price data for hints to the December FOMC decision (a more timely release will be released in one hour when the core PCE number is published). According to the BEA, in Q2, Gross domestic purchases prices increased 1.9% in the third quarter, after increasing 2.4% in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 2.4 percent, after increasing 2.6 percent.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices increased 1.5% in the third quarter, after increasing 2.5% in the second quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 2.1% after increasing 2.8%, this was just below the 2.2% expected.
The GDP report also provided data on corporate profits which it found had risen in prior quarter: Y/y corp. profits were up 6.1% in 3Q after rising 10.8% prior quarter. Financial industry profits declined 0.4% Q/q in 3Q after rising 7% prior quarter. Federal Reserve bank profits up 10.7% in 3Q after falling 11.5% prior quarter. Nonfinancial sector profits rose 1.1% Q/q in 3Q after rising 4.2% prior quarter.
end
Overall, don’t expect anyone to spend too much time on this stale data as attention now turns to the core PCE report at 10am ET.
US Durable Goods Orders Disappoint In October, Stagnant For 19 Months
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 08:52 AM
After two months of declines, US durable goods orders rose 0.2% MoM (SA) in preliminary October data (significantly less than the expected +0.5%). Interestingly, given the recent stagnation, this blip higher pushed orders up 5.3% YoY (NSA) – the highest since Nov 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
On an SA basis, total durable goods orders have basically gone nowhere since March 2023…
Source: Bloomberg
Ex-Transportation, orders rose just 0.1% MoM and worse still, non-defense, ex-aircraft orders fell 0.2% MoM (well below the +0.1% MoM expected).
The one very modest silver lining was Capital Goods Shipments Ex Air (a figure that is used to help calculate equipment investment in the government’s GDP report) rose 0.2% MoM (better than expected).
END
Markets do not like this!
(zerohedge)
Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Jumps To 6-Month High
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 10:11 AM
The Fed’s favorite (when it’s going down) inflation indicator – Core PCE – ticked up noticeably in October to +2.8%, the highest since April…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) lifting it 2.3% YoY (up from +2.1% YoY prior)…
Source: Bloomberg
A jump in Services and Durable Goods costs drove the reignition of inflation…
Source: Bloomberg
Incomes – for once – grew at a faster rate than spending (+0.6% MoM vs +0.4% MoM respectively)….
Source: Bloomberg
And finally, imagine how bad things would be if the government wasn’t handing over billions to ‘we, the people’ all of a sudden…
Source: Bloomberg
Bye, bye, rate-cut expectations!…
END
Savings-Rate Revisions Erase $140BN In American’s Wealth As Fed’s Favorite Inflation Indicator Jumps To 6-Month High
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 10:11 AM
The Fed’s favorite (when it’s going down) inflation indicator – Core PCE – ticked up noticeably in October to +2.8%, the highest since April…
Source: Bloomberg
Headline PCE rose 0.2% MoM (as expected) lifting it 2.3% YoY (up from +2.1% YoY prior)…
Source: Bloomberg
A jump in Services and Durable Goods costs drove the reignition of inflation…
Source: Bloomberg
Incomes – for once – grew at a faster rate than spending (+0.6% MoM vs +0.4% MoM respectively)….
Source: Bloomberg
…and while that bumped up the savings rate MoM, thanks to massive revisions, Americans lost $140BN in personal savings… out of nowhere…
Remember when they revised it from 2.4% to 5.0% in late September to bump up GDP? Well, we guess Kamala isn’t president.. so all bets (adjustments) are off…
And finally, imagine how bad things would be if the government wasn’t handing over billions to ‘we, the people’ all of a sudden…
Source: Bloomberg
Bye, bye, rate-cut expectations!…
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
Trump’s tariff threats to Mexico, Canada, and China unleashed selling of US industrial commodities and induced rabid buying of Fangs and tech stocks. Bonds declined smartly.
Consumer confidence rises to highest level since July 2023https://yahoo.trib.al/4ZkfUVW The latest index reading from the Conference Board was 111.7 in November, above the 109.6 seen in October and the highest level in more than a year. The expectations index, which is based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, ticked up 0.4 percentage points to 92.3, significantly above the threshold of 80 that typically signals recession ahead…
ESZs hit a daily low of 5976.25 at 20:02 ET due to Trump’s tariff threats. A robust rebound quickly developed. After hitting 6011.00 at 23:25 ET, ESZs traded within a 15-handle range until they broke higher at 6:08 ET. ESZs then zigzagged higher, hitting a daily high of 6034.75 at 14:04 ET.
From Tuesday’s King Report: As noted in Monday’s missive, seasonality and psychology are very bullish now. Barring unexpected bad news, traders will shoot for the number: 6k for the S&P 500 Index. There is no reason to over analyze the stock market now. The short-term environment and momentum are very bullish… It appears that US stocks will start the NYSE session lower on DJT’s tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China threat. Over the past several months, when US stocks have declined during the first hour of two of NYSE trading, afternoon rallies have almost always appeared.
FOMC Minutes from November 7, 2024 Meeting In their discussion of inflation developments, participants continued to observe that inflation had eased substantially from its peak, although core inflation remained somewhat elevated… In discussing labor market developments, participants generally viewed recent readings as consistent with labor market conditions remaining solid… In participants’ evaluation of the risks and uncertainties associated with the economic outlook, upside risks to the inflation outlook were seen as little changed, while downside risks to employment and growth were seen as having decreased somewhat… Participants anticipated that if the data came in about as expected, with inflation continuing to move down sustainably to 2 percent and the economy remaining near maximum employment, it would likely be appropriate to move gradually toward a more neutral stance of policy over time… In discussing the positioning of monetary policy in response to potential changes in the balance of risks, some participants noted that the Committee could pause its easing of the policy rate and hold it at a restrictive level if inflation remained elevated, and some remarked that policy easing could be accelerated if the labor market turned down or economic activity faltered. Many participants observed that uncertainties concerning the level of the neutral rate of interest complicated the assessment of the degree of restrictiveness of monetary policy and, in their view, made it appropriate to reduce policy restraint gradually… https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20241107.htm
@FrogNews: The minutes show the Fed clowns don’t have a lot of faith in the data, so they’re focusing on the trend. Some of the clowns think they should pause, and some think they should cut. They seem lost. Markets say 60/40 in favor of a cut. November Jobs will be the deciding factor. https://x.com/FrogNews/status/1861492731790414301
Because the FOMC Minutes were not a dovish as expected or hoped, ESZs retreated 15 handles in 15 minutes. But traders are intractably bullish; so, ESZs resumed their rally. ESZs hit a new daily high of 6044.00 at 15:50 ET and then eased down to 6039.00 at the NYSE close.
Ex-NY Fed President and Chief GS Economist, Bill Dudley, who stated that stopping Trump from being president should be a tenet of Fed policy, is running his mouth against DJT again. Dudley uses an op-ed in Bloomberg to tie responsible US fiscal policy with Fed independence and slam DJT’s policies. The fact that the $36 trillion in US debt incurred while the Fed is independent undermines B-Dud’s sophistry.
@business: Former New York Fed President Bill Dudley says markets are overestimating Scott Bessent’s chances of succeeding at a very difficult jobhttps://trib.al/QZkmKel
Bessent Will Have to Fix America’s Finances. Good Luck with That by Bill Dudley Although he can’t single-handedly put U.S. fiscal policy on a sustainable course—he doesn’t set taxes or spending—he has an important role to play. First, he should stress that fiscal imprudence will drive up debt service costs, and advocate measures to increase revenue and limit spending (not just on paper, by assuming faster growth or that tax cuts pay for themselves, but in practice). Second, he should seek ways to broaden the tax base and ensure everyone pays what they owe. Third, he should be realistic about the extent to which higher import tariffs can raise revenue—and about their negative impact on growth, inflation and productivity. Finally, he should support the Fed’s independence with respect to monetary policy… https://www.fa-mag.com/news/bessent-will-have-to-fix-america-s-finances–good-luck-with-that-80478.html
The Fed’s main task, after wet nursing US banks, has been to paper over US spending. B-Dud’s risible attempt to tie Fed independence to responsible US fiscal policy is insulting.
B-Dud, is the Fed independent from Goldman Sachs and The Street? Asking for a friend.
@MichaelAArouet: I always have a good laugh when I see Germany reporting unemployment rate at 5% or 6%. In addition to the officially reported unemployed of 2.8 Million there are 5.5 Million people in Germany receiving long-term unemployment benefits. The real unemployment rate is 18%. https://t.co/Z8qosYazSo
NATO military chief warns we ‘must strike first’ in a preemptive attack against Russia The head of NATO’s military committee Admiral Rob Bauer has discussed the possibility of preemptive strikes on Russia in the event of conflict against the alliance. Admiral Bauer said it is positive that NATO have changed their attitude to simply sit and “wait for us to be attacked” to then react against the aggressor. Admiral Bauer was quoted by Bloomberg saying, “It is more competent not to wait, but to hit launchers in Russia in case Russia attacks us… https://londonlovesbusiness.com/nato-military-chief-warns-we-must-strike-first-in-a-preemptive-attack-against-russia/
@MAGAResource: Two U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress bombers, stationed at RAF Fairford in the UK, conducted a mission near Russian airspace, signaling a strong show of force to Moscow. This strategic move follows a stern warning from Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, who emphasized that Europe should brace itself for the possibility of total war with Russia, given the escalating tensions.
Positive aspects of previous session Stocks rebounded after an early decline on DJT’s proposed tariffs. The S&P 500 Index closed decisively above 6k (6021.63); Fangs rallied smartly Oil and gasoline declined moderately
Negative aspects of previous session Bonds declined moderately; USZs were -10/32 at the NYSE close. The DJTA declined 57.29
Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are stocks riding short-term upward seasonality to a short-term top?
First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Down; Last Hour: Up
Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6013.11 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6025.42; 5992.27
@elonmusk: The F-35 design was broken at the requirements level, because it was required to be too many things to too many people. This made it an expensive & complex jack of all trades, master of none. Success was never in the set of possible outcomes. And manned fighter jets are obsolete in the age of drones anyway. Will just get pilots killed. Future wars are all about drones & hypersonic missiles. Fighter jets piloted by humans will be destroyed very quickly.
New study claims popular DEI practices can lead to ramped up hostility and racial tensionshttps://t.co/l5oG0MXjQo
Over the past several decades, there have been scores of research and studies that show DEI, sensitivity training, and affirmative action policies are counter-productive to the original goals.
December 2, 1902: Second Annual Message – President Theodore Roosevelt The only relation of the tariff to big corporations as a whole is that the tariff makes manufactures profitable…Our aim should be not by unwise tariff changes to give foreign products the advantage over domestic products, but by proper regulation to give domestic competition a fair chance… Our past experience shows that great prosperity in this country has always come under a protective tariff; and that the country cannot prosper under fitful tariff changes at short intervals… https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-speeches/december-2-1902-second-annual-message
Today – Absenteeism will be high for the Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend. A determined few will be able to manipulate stuff more easily than usual. November performance gaming should be spirited today and on Friday. A short-term or trading top is not probable until next week.
ESZs are +2.00; NQZs are -8.50; and USZs are +1/32 at 20:28 ET.
Expected economic data: Q3 GDP 2.8%, Consumption 3.7%, GDP Price Index 1.8%, Core PCE 2.2%; Oct Advance Goods Trade Balance -$102.1B; Oct Wholesale Inventories 0.0% m/m; Retail Inventories 0.4% m/m; Oct Durable Goods 0.5% m/m, ex-Trans 0.1%, Nondef Ex-Air 0.1%, Shipments 0.1%; Initial Jobless Claims 215k, Continuing Claims 1.893m; Nov Chicago PMI 45; Oct Personal Income 0.3%, Spending 0.4%, PCE Price Index 0.2% m/m & 2.3% y/y, Core PCE 0.3% m/m & 2.8% y/y; Oct Pending Home Sales -2.0% m/m & 0.1% y/y
S&P Index 50-day MA: 5825; 100-day MA: 5669; 150-day MA: 5552; 200-day MA: 5445 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,815; 100-day MA: 41,641; 150-day MA: 40,754; 200-day MA: 40,265 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope)
S&P 500 Index (6021.63 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5218.49 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5589.84 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5857.32 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5973.10 triggers a sell signal
@Archer83Able: US President Biden announced a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. – The truce is set to take effect at 4:00am local on Wednesday; (Iran wants time to prepare for DJT) – The deal is “designed to be” a permanent cessation of hostilies; – Over the next 60 days, the Lebanese army and state security forces are expected to take control of the border area with Israel; – Israeli forces to “gradually” withdraw from southern Lebanon within the same time period; – Hezbollah’s infrastructure in southern Lebanon not to be allowed to be rebuilt.
Europe is under attack from Russia. Why isn’t it fighting back? Western countries have shied away from reacting to Kremlin acts of sabotage and terror. Even the words used to talk about the attacks are reflective of Europe’s timidity, said Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s outgoing foreign minister… The Kremlin’s brand of hybrid warfare was developed by the Russian General Valery Gerasimov, now the chief of the General Staff of the Russian armed forces, according to the Austrian security expert Gerhard Mangott. “It never just means disinformation and propaganda, but a broad arsenal of instruments, from sabotage to the infiltration and financing of parties in the West to the violation of the airspace of NATO states by Russian fighter planes,” said Mangott… The Kremlin appears to be slowly ratcheting up the pressure to see what it can get away with… https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-russia-hybrid-war-vladimir-putin-germany-cyberattacks-election-interference/
‘Lawyer up guys’: MAGA lawyer threatens Trump’s prosecutors — with a specific statute “When they conspire to violate the constitutional rights of Americans – you’re violating 18 USC §241,” Davis said. “When you politicize and weaponize intel agencies and law enforcement to go after your political enemies for non-crimes, that is the very definition of a violation of 18 USC §241.”… https://www.rawstory.com/trump-charges-2670000401/
@EndWokeness: Kamala Harris breaks her silence with this 29 second video and… yikes https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1861553576444567799 @DrewHLive: She looks exhausted, cooked and possibly drunk again. She looks like a mess.
The NYT’s @teddyschleifer: Kamala Harris tells her major donors on the National Finance Committee debrief call that her campaign raised $1.5 billion over the course of the 107-day race. She also offered her corn bread stuffing recipe to anyone who doesn’t have it… She says there were 2,500 members of her National Finance Committee. About 400 of them were on the call. @joma_gc: Just listened to the call. It’s way worse. https://t.co/HTtT37FjO6
Democratic donor (John Morgan) says Kamala Harris should be banned from running for office ‘forever’ over ‘illegal’ spendinghttps://trib.al/w0TgR6V
Ex-CBS News reporter accuses network of ‘defying’ orders from Shari Redstone, CBS CEO to probe Hunter Biden laptop scandalhttps://t.co/KW6GO1sssF
We hope that you and yours have a Happy Thanksgiving.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
Kamala Harris Official Admits Internal Polls Had Her Losing To Trump The Entire Time
by Tyler Durden
Wednesday, Nov 27, 2024 – 12:25 PM
In perhaps the most direct confirmation that most pollsters suck at their jobs, senior Kamala Harris campaign adviser David Plouffe revealed that internal polling never had Harris ahead of Donald Trump despite may ‘accredited’ public polls showing Harris leading the former president.
“We didn’t get the breaks we needed on Election Day,” said Plouffe during and appearance on the Pod Save America podcast. “I think it surprised people because there was these public polls that came out in late September, early October, showing us with leads that we never saw.“
Would Harris have had $1 billion in donations to incinerate (and end up in the red) had people known the truth?
The internal panic from the Harris campaign was unknown publicly, helping contribute to a widespread perception that the race was a toss-up. The results were the best for Republicans since 2004, with Trump winning the popular vote and sweeping every swing state. -Washington Examiner
Perhaps most notably wrong was, Ann Selzer – a famous (and now retired) pollster, who was a stunning 16 points off the actual result in Iowa, where she predicted Harris would beat Trump +3, while Trump actually beat Harris +13.
And of course, Polymarket participants had Trump solidly in the lead for the last month of the race.
What’s more, internal polling didn’t change much throughout the election after Harris became the Democratic nominee for president in July because Joe Biden’s brain was pudding.
Harris campaign head Jen O’Malley Dillon, who was also on the podcast, along with Quentin Fulks, deputy campaign manager; and Stephanie Cutter, who oversaw messaging and communications, couldn’t disagree.
“The truth is that we really thought this was a very close race; we talked about the entire time we saw it as a margin-of-error race,” said Dillon.
The Harris campaign officials portrayed the race as doomed from the start, according to the Washington Examiner.
The comments section on YouTube was unkind…
“This interview was absolutely bananas. They admit zero fault. What a disaster,” posted one person.
“The long and the short of it is that none of these people should ever run a national campaign ever again. The Obama era is over,” said another.
US airbase in Kuwait: 2,100 km, 11 minutes; 
US 5th Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain: 2,500 km, 12 minutes; 
Minuteman III missile silos in Montana: 4,700 km, 23 minutes; 
harveyorganblog.com 
