GOLD PRICE CLOSED DOWN $20.20 TO $2635.50
SILVER PRICE DOWN $0.19 TO $30.43
Gold ACCESS CLOSED $2638.50
Silver ACCESS CLOSED: $30.51
Bitcoin morning price:$95,512 DOWN 1061 DOLLARS.
Bitcoin: afternoon price: $96,169 DOWN 410 DOLLARS
Platinum price closing DOWN $5.60 TO $946.00
Palladium price; DOWN $0.75 TO $986.20
END
*CANADIAN GOLD: $3704.12 DOWN 7,00 CDN dollars per oz( * NEW ALL TIME HIGH 3,872.51 CDN DOLLARS PER OZ//OCT 30 2024)
*BRITISH GOLD: 2084.75 UP 1.25 Pounds per oz// *(NEW ALL TIME HIGH//CLOSING///2161.00 BRITISH POUNDS/OZ) NOV 22/2024
*EURO GOLD: 2,512.52 UP 3.17 Euros per oz //* (ALL TIME CLOSING HIGH: 2600.25 EUROS PER OZ//NOV 22 //.2024)
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END
EXCHANGE;
EXCHANGE: COMEX
CONTRACT: DECEMBER 2024 COMEX 100 GOLD FUTURES
SETTLEMENT: 2,657.000000000 USD
INTENT DATE: 11/29/2024 DELIVERY DATE: 12/03/2024
FIRM ORG FIRM NAME ISSUED STOPPED
099 H DB AG 233
118 C MACQUARIE FUT 13
118 H MACQUARIE FUT 692
132 C SG AMERICAS 74
152 C DORMAN TRADING 2
167 C MAREX 1
190 H BMO CAPITAL 199
323 C HSBC 1
357 C WEDBUSH 2
363 H WELLS FARGO SEC 468
365 C MAREX CAPITAL M 1
435 H SCOTIA CAPITAL 54
555 H BNP PARIBAS SEC 170
624 C BOFA SECURITIES 14
624 H BOFA SECURITIES 54
657 C MORGAN STANLEY 18 13
661 C JP MORGAN 16 86
661 H JP MORGAN 199
685 C RJ OBRIEN 8
686 C STONEX FINANCIA 64 55
690 C ABN AMRO 33 18
726 C PLUS500US FINAN 2
732 C RBC CAP MARKETS 28
DLV615-T CME CLEARING
BUSINESS DATE: 11/29/2024 DAILY DELIVERY NOTICES RUN DATE: 11/29/2024
PRODUCT GROUP: METALS RUN TIME: 20:44:41
732 H RBC CAP MARKETS 30
737 C ADVANTAGE 20 13
800 C MAREX SPEC 4
880 C CITIGROUP 835 61
905 C ADM 1
TOTAL: 1,741 1,741
JPMorgan stopped 1059/1741
GOLD: NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR DEC/2024. CONTRACT: 1741 NOTICES FOR 174,100 OZ 5.415 TONNES
total notices so far: 14,816 contracts for 1,481,600 Oz (46.081 tonnes)
FOR NOV
SILVER NOTICES: 846 NOTICE(S) FILED FOR 4.23 MILLION OZ/
total number of notices filed so far this month : 6302 for 31.51 million oz
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
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GLD/
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE FRAUDULENT VEHICLES//THEY ARE NOW RAIDING GLD AND SLV FOR PHYSICAL
THE CROOKS ARE STEALING GOLD AND SILVER FROM THE GLD/SLV AND REPLACING THE PHYSICAL WITH PAPER DOLLARS.
WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 INVESTORS SWITCHING TO SPROTT PHYSICAL (PHYS) INSTEAD OF THE FRAUDULENT GLD:
NO CHANGES IN GOLD INVENTORY AT THE GLD:
INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
SLV/
WITH NO SILVER AROUND AND SILVER DOWN $0.19 AT THE SLV
HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV.
INVESTORS ARE SWITCHING SLV TO SPROTT’S PSLV.
CLOSING INVENTORY: 472.924MILLION OZ
Let us have a look at the data for today
SILVER//OUTLINE
SILVER COMEX OI SURPRISINGLY FELL BY A GIGANTIC SIZED 4750 CONTRACTS TO 132,898 AND STALLING ON ITS MARCH TO THE RECORD HIGH OI OF 244,710, SET FEB 25/2020, AND THIS GIGANTIC SIZED LOSS IN COMEX OI WAS ACCOMPLISHED DESPITE OUR HUGE GAIN OF $0.51 IN SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. WE HAD A HUGE LOSS OF 4288 TOTAL CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.51 IN PRICE. WE HAD HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS ON WEDNESDAY COMEX TRADING (COUPLED WITH FINALIZATION OF LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS) AS THEY DESPERATELY TRIED TO CONTAIN SILVER’S CONTINUAL PRICE RISE FOR THE PAST 2 WEEKS AND THEY FAILED WEDNESDAY WITH SILVER’S RISE OF 51 CENTS.
WE HAD A STRONG 460 CONTRACT EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE ACCOMPANIED BY A HUGE 1110 CONTRACT T.A.S ISSUANCE WHICH WILL BEING USED IN MONDAY’S TRADING AS THEY PLAY AN INTEGRAL PART IN OUR COMEX TRADING TRYING TO CONTAIN ANY SILVER PRICE RISE. IN ESSENCE WE LOST A HUMONGOUS SIZED 4290 CONTRACTS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE. WE HAD MAJOR TAS LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY’S COMEX SESSION ALONG WITH MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION.
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE CROOKS NEED A HIGHER SILVER/GOLD T.A.S. TO CARRY ON THEIR CROOKED MANIPULATION ON A DAILY BASIS BUT DEMAND IS JUST TOO HIGH FOR THEM. THE HIGHER ISSUANCE OF T.A.S. IS NOW USED TO TEMPER OUR SILVER/GOLD PRICE RISE OR RAID AS WHAT HAPPENED SEVERAL TIMES LAST MONTH AND AGAIN ON LAST WEEK. THE ACCUMULATED T.A.S. WAS BEING USED TO MANIPULATE PRICES AT THE COMEX BUT THAT ENDED MONDAY..
CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT THAT THE CROOKS USE THE MID MONTH FOR MANIPULATION AS THEY SELL THEIR BUY SIDE OF THE CALENDAR SPREAD FIRST AND THEN KEEP THE SELL SIDE TO LIQUIDATE AT A LATER DATE. THUS WE HAVE TWO VEHICLES THE CROOKS USE FOR MANIPULATION AND BOTH ARE SPREADERS: 1) AT MONTH’S END/SPREADERS COMEX AND 2/ TAS SPREADERS, MID MONTH. TOTAL TAS ISSUED ON FRIDAY NIGHT: A HUGE 1110 CONTRACTS. DESPITE MANY COMPLAINTS THAT THE CROOKS HAVE VIOLATED POSITION LIMITS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TAS ISSUED HAVE A VALUE OF ZERO (AS TO POSITION LIMITS FOR OUR CROOKED BANKERS). THE PROBLEM OF COURSE IS THAT THE CROOKS DO NOT LIQUIDATE THE TAS TOGETHER BUT SELL THE BUY SIDE FIRST AND THEN LIQUIDATE THE SELL SIDE TWO MONTHS HENCE. IT IS OBVIOUS MANIPULATION TO THE HIGHEST DEGREE BUT IT NATURALLY FELL ON DEAF EARS WITH OUR REGULATORS (OCC) WHEN THEY RECEIVED OUR COMPLAINTS. IT NOW SEEMS THAT THE OCC HAS ORDERED THE BANKS TO REDUCE ITS NEW LEVEL OF 1 TRILLION DOLLARS IN GOLD/SILVER DERIVATIVES AND THUS THE REASON FOR CONSTANT RAIDS BUT TO NO AVAIL TODAY. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE THE FED (GOV’T) IS BEHIND EVERY DAY TRADING.
WE HAVE IN THE PAST YEAR SET ANOTHER RECORD LOW AT 114,102 CONTRACTS ///JULY 3.2023// OUR BANKERS WITH THE HELP OF SPECULATORS AND HIGH FREQUENCY TRADERS WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING THE PRICE OF SILVER DOWN (IT ROSE BY $0.51) AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY APPRECIABLE NET SILVER LONGS FROM THEIR PERCH AS EVEN THOUGH WE HAD A MEGA HUGE LOSS IN OI ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ALL OF THAT LOSS WAS DUE TO THE SPREADERS LIQUIDATION.
WE HAD A STRONG 460 CONTRACT ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS) iiii) AN INITIAL SILVER STANDING FOR COMEX SILVER MEASURING AT 40.435 MILLION OZ (FIRST DAY NOTICE) TO WHICH WE MUST ADD ANOTHER OF THOSE STUPID “DELIVERIES” CALLED EXCHANGE FOR RISK. THURSDAY NIGHT THE CME ISSUED 132 NOTICES OR .66 MILLION OZ WHERE BY THE BUYER TAKES THE RISK THAT HE WILL EVER TO DELIVERED UPON. WHAT A CROCK OF NONSENSE! THERE WAS NO EXCHANGE FOR RISK ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT (WHAT A RELIEF)
// STANDING FOR SILVER//DEC AT 37,10 MILLION OZ + .66 MILLION OZ EX FOR RISK = 37.76 MILLION OZ
WE HAD:
/ HUGE SIZED COMEX OI LOSS ( MASSIVE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION + MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION)//STRONG SIZED EFP ISSUANCE/ VI) HUGE SIZED NUMBER OF T.A.S. CONTRACT ISSUANCE 1110 CONTRACTS)/
I AM NOW RECORDING THE DIFFERENTIAL IN OI FROM PRELIMINARY TO FINAL: removed A SMALL 2 CONTRACTS.
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS NOV. ACCUMULATION FOR EFP’S SILVER/JPMORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES/STARTING FROM FIRST DAY/MONTH OF DEC
TOTAL CONTRACTS for 1 DAYS, total 460 contracts: OR 2.3 MILLION OZ (460 CONTRACTS PER DAY)
TOTAL EFP’S FOR THE MONTH SO FAR: 2.3 MILLION OZ
LAST 24 MONTHS TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED IN MILLIONS OF OZ:
MAY 137.83 MILLION
JUNE 149.91 MILLION OZ
JULY 129.445 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: MILLION OZ 140.120
SEPT. 28.230 MILLION OZ//
OCT: 94.595 MILLION OZ
NOV: 131.925 MILLION OZ
DEC: 100.615 MILLION OZ
YEAR 2022:
JAN 2022-DEC 2022
JAN 2022// 90.460 MILLION OZ
FEB 2022: 72.39 MILLION OZ//
MARCH 2022: 207.140 MILLION OZ//A NEW RECORD FOR EFP ISSUANCE
APRIL: 114.52 MILLION OZ FINAL//LOW ISSUANCE
MAY: 105.635 MILLION OZ//
JUNE: 94.470 MILLION OZ
JULY : 87.110 MILLION OZ
AUGUST: 65.025 MILLION OZ
SEPT. 74.025 MILLION OZ///FINAL
OCT. 29.017 MILLION OZ FINAL
NOV: 134.290 MILLION OZ//FINAL
DEC, 61.395 MILLION OZ FINAL
TOTALS YR 2022: 1135.767 MILLION OZ (1.1356 BILLION OZ)
JAN 2023/// 53.070 MILLION OZ //FINAL
FEB: 2023: 100.105 MILLION OZ/FINAL//MUCH STRONGER ISSUANCE VS THE LATTER TWO MONTHS.
MARCH 2023: 112.58 MILLION OZ//FINAL//STRONG ISSUANCE
APRIL 111.035 MILLION OZ(SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THAN LAST MONTH)
MAY 66.120 MILLION OZ/INITIAL (MUCH SMALLER THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 110.395 MILLION OZ//MUCH LARGER THAN LAST MONTH
JULY 85.745 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 171.43 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE HUGE //2ND HIGHEST ON RECORD
SEPT: 72.705 MILLION OZ (SMALLER THIS MONTH)
OCT: 97.455 MILLION OZ
NOV. 50.050 MILLION OZ
DEC. 66.140 MILLION OZ//
TOTAL 2023: 1,104.10 MILLION OZ/
JAN ’24 : 78.655 MILLION OZ//
FEB /2024 : 66.135 MILLION OZ./FINAL
MARCH: 143.750 MILLION OZ// 4TH HIGHEST ON RECORD.
APRIL: 161.770 MILLION OZ (THIS MONTH WILL BE A WHOPPER OF ISSUANCE OF EFPS//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED FOR A MONTH)
MAY: 135.995 MILLION OZ //WILL BE A STRONG MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
JUNE 110.575 MILLION OZ ( WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH ISSUANCE)
JULY: 108.870 MILLION OZ (WILL BE A STRONG ISSUANCE MONTH/ A TOUCH OVER 100 MILLION OZ/)
AUGUST; 99.740 MILLION OZ//THIS MONTH WILL BE STRONG FOR ISSUANCE BUT LESS THAN JULY.
SEPT: 112.415 MILLION OZ//WILL BE A HUGE MONTH FOR EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
OCT; 97.485 MILLION OZ (WILL BE SMALLER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH )
NOV. 115.970 MILLION OZ ( HUGE THIS MONTH)
DEC: 2.3 MILLION OZ
RESULT: WE HAD A HUGE SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI SILVER COMEX CONTRACTS OF 4750 CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $0.51 IN PRICE OF SILVER PRICING AT THE COMEX//FRIDAY.,. THE CME NOTIFIED US THAT WE HAD A STRONG EFP ISSUANCE CONTRACTS: 460 ISSUED FOR DEC AND 0 CONTRACTS ISSUED FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS) WHICH EXITED OUT OF THE SILVER COMEX TO LONDON AS FORWARDS. WE HAVE A GOOD INITIAL SILVER OZ STANDING FOR DEC OF 40.435 MILLION OZ ON FIRST DAY NOTICE, FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S 3.389 MILLION OZ EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON TO WHICH WE ADD .66 MILLION OZ OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK//NEW TOTAL; 37.76 MILLIONOZ
//NEW TOTAL STANDING FOR DEC AT 37.76 MILLION OZ
WE HAVE A HUGE SIZED LOSS OF 4290 OI CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE…..THE TOTAL OF TAS INITIATED CONTRACTS TODAY: A HUGE 1110 CONTRACTS TRYING DESPERATE TO CONTAIN SILVER’S PRICE RISE,//HUGE FRONT END OF THE TAS CONTRACTS WERE LIQUIDATED DURING THE FRIDAY COMEX SESSION ALONG WITH CALENDAR SPREADER LIQUIDATION. THUS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT /THE STRONG TA.S. ISSUANCE//LIQUIDATION DISTORTS THE TOTAL OI CONTRACTS STANDING AT THE COMEX. NO NET LONG SPECULATORS WERE BURNED ON FRIDAY
/ ZERO NET SHORT COVERING FROM OUR SPEC SHORTS WITH THE HUGE GAIN IN PRICE FRIDAY/ . ALSO SOME OF OUR LONGS EXERCISED THEIR RIGHT AND TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL SILVER MUCH TO THE ANGER OF OUR BANKERS. SILVER IS NOT BASEL III COMPLIANT SO THE BANKERS CAN TAKE THEIR TIME WITH THE DELIVERY OF SILVER.
THE NEW TAS ISSUANCE FRISDAY NIGHT (1110) WILL BE PUT INTO “THE BANK” TO BE COLLUSIVELY USED AT A LATER DATE AND LATELY ON A DAILY BASIS INCLUDING YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
WE HAD 846 NOTICE(S) FILED TODAY FOR 4.23 MILLION OZ
THE SILVER COMEX IS NOW BEING ATTACKED FOR METAL BY LONDONERS ET AL.
GOLD//OUTLINE
IN GOLD, THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,518 OI CONTRACTS TO 458,487 AND FURTHER FROM THE RECORD (SET JAN 24/2020) AT 799,733 AND PREVIOUS TO THAT: (SET JAN 6/2020) AT 797,110, BUT WE ARE NOW MUCH FURTHER FROM OUR ALL TIME LOW OF 390,000 CONTRACTS.
THE DIFFERENTIAL FROM PRELIMINARY OI TO FINAL OI IN GOLD TODAY: REMOVED A FAIR SIZED 722 CONTRACTS//
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI (10,518 CONTRACTS) OCCURRED DESPITE OUR GAIN OF $16.00 IN PRICE FRIDAY. THE FRBNY SUPPLIED THE NECESSARY SHORT PAPER.. WE ALSO HAD A GOOD INITIAL STANDING IN GOLD TONNAGE FOR DEC AT 55.169 TONNES ON FIRST DAY NOTICE. FOLLOWED BY FRIDAY’S HUGE 1089 CONTRACT EX. FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (3.398 TONNES OF GOLD). AND FROM THAT WE MUST ADD SATURDAY’S ISSUANCE OF .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK//NEW STANDING 52.689 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DEC: 52.689 TONNES
/ ALL OF THIS HAPPENED WITH OUR $16.00 GAIN IN PRICE WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S COMEX ///. WE HAD A STRONG LOSS OF 5903 OI CONTRACTS (18.36 PAPER TONNES) ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES, WITH MANY LONGS, REMAINING AT THE END OF THE DAY, TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL GOLD VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE, MUCH TO THE ANGER AND HORROR EXHIBITED BY OUR MAJOR BANKER, THE FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK. THE HORROR INTENSIFIED ONCE LONDON STARTED TO TRADE LAST WEEK, AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH MAJOR TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL VIA THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ROUTE! YOU CAN VISUALIZE THIS WITH THE VIOLENT ACTION AT THE COMEX WITH RESPECT TO 1089 CONTRACT EX FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON AND .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK “DELIVERY”
E.F.P. ISSUANCE
THE CME RELEASED THE DATA FOR EFP ISSUANCE AND IT TOTALED A STRONG SIZED 4615 CONTRACTS:
The NEW COMEX OI FOR THE GOLD COMPLEX RESTS AT 457,765
IN ESSENCE WE HAVE A STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN TOTAL CONTRACTS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5903 CONTRACTS WITH 10,518 CONTRACTS DECREASED AT THE COMEX// AND A STRONG SIZED 4615 EFP OI CONTRACT ISSUANCE WHICH NAVIGATED OVER TO LONDON. THUS TOTAL OI LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES OF 5903 CONTRACTS.. WE HAD THE FOLLOWING TAS CONTRACTS INITIATED (ISSUED): A FAIR SIZED BUT CRIMINAL 1597 CONTRACTS ISSUED. WE HAD A HUGE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S CONTRACTS DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE FRIDAY AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL IN ORDER TO CARRY OUT ITS PRICE CONTAINMENT STRATEGY. THEY FAILED MISERABLY ON FRIDAY WITH GOLD’S PRICE RISE
CALCULATIONS ON GAIN/LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES
WE HAD A STRONG SIZED ISSUANCE IN EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS (4615 CONTRACTS) ACCOMPANYING THE STRONG SIZED DECREASE IN COMEX OI OF 10,518 CONTRACTS/TOTAL LOSS FOR OUR THE TWO EXCHANGES: 5903 CONTRACTS..WE HAVE 1) NOW RETURNED TO OUR FORMER FORMAT OF BANKERS GOING LONG AND SPECULATORS GOING SHORT ,2.) STRONG INITIAL STANDING AT THE GOLD COMEX FOR DEC 55.169 TONNES FOLLOWED BY TODAY.S 1089 OZ E.F.P. TRANSFER TO WHICH WE ADD THE CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK//NEW STANDING 52.689 TONNES
//NEW STANDING DECEMBER: 52.689 TONNES
/ 3) HUGE T.A.S. LIQUIDATION (TRYING TO LOWER GOLD’S PRICE RISE PM FRIDAY WITH NO SUCCESS AS WE HAD A STRONG $16.00 PRICE GAIN . WE HAD ZERO NET LONG SPECS BEING CLIPPED. STICKY GOLD’S LONGS HOWEVER ARE NOT FOOLED BY THE RAID AS THEY WERE REWARDED FRIDAY EVENING AS THEY EXERCISED EFP’S FROM LONDON TO TAKE DELIVERY OF BADLY NEEDED PHYSICAL.
4) STRONG SIZED COMEX OPEN INTEREST DECREASE 5) HUGE ISSUANCE OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL PAPER///FAIR T.A.S. ISSUANCE: 1597 T.A.S.CONTRACTS///HUGE 1089 CONTRACT E.F.P. TRANFER TO LONDON
HISTORICAL ACCUMULATION OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS IN 2023-2024 INCLUDING TODAY
DEC
ACCUMULATION OF EFP’S GOLD AT J.P. MORGAN’S HOUSE OF BRIBES: (EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL) FOR THE MONTH OF DEC :
TOTAL EFP CONTRACTS ISSUED: 4615 CONTRACTS OF 461,500 OZ OR 14.35 TONNES IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) AND THUS AVERAGING: 4615 EFP CONTRACTS PER TRADING DAY
TO GIVE YOU AN IDEA AS TO THE SIZE OF THESE EFP TRANSFERS : THIS MONTH IN 1 TRADING DAY(S) IN TONNES 14.35 TONNES
TOTAL ANNUAL GOLD PRODUCTION, 2023, THROUGHOUT THE WORLD EX CHINA EX RUSSIA: 3555 TONNES
THUS EFP TRANSFERS REPRESENTS 14.35 DIVIDED BY 3550 x 100% TONNES = 0.394% OF GLOBAL ANNUAL PRODUCTION
ACCUMULATION OF GOLD EFP’S YEAR 2021 TO 2023
JANUARY/2021: 265.26 TONNES (RAPIDLY INCREASING AGAIN)
FEB : 171.24 TONNES ( DEFINITELY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN)..
MARCH:. 276.50 TONNES (STRONG AGAIN/
APRIL: 189..44 TONNES ( DRAMATICALLY SLOWING DOWN AGAIN//GOLD IN BACKWARDATION)
MAY: 250.15 TONNES (NOW DRAMATICALLY INCREASING AGAIN)
JUNE: 247.54 TONNES (FINAL)
JULY: 188.73 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST: 217.89 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE.
SEPT 142.12 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE ( LOW ISSUANCE)_
OCT: 141.13 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE (LOW ISSUANCE)
NOV: 312.46 TONNES FINAL ISSUANCE//NEW RECORD!! (INCREASING DRAMATICALLY)//SIGN OF REAL STRESS//SURPASSING THE MARCH 2021 RECORD OF 276.50 TONNES OF EFP
DEC. 175.62 TONNES//FINAL ISSUANCE//
TOTALS: 2,578.08 TONNES/2021
JAN:2022 247.25 TONNES //FINAL
FEB: 196.04 TONNES//FINAL
MARCH/2022: 409.30 TONNES //FINAL( THIS IS NOW A RECORD EFP ISSUANCE FOR MARCH AND FOR ANY MONTH.
APRIL: 169.55 TONNES (FINAL VERY LOW ISSUANCE MONTH)
MAY: 247.44 TONNES FINAL//
JUNE: 238.13 TONNES FINAL
JULY: 378.43 TONNES FINAL/SECOND HIGHEST ON RECORD
AUGUST: 180.81 TONNES FINAL
SEPT. 193.16 TONNES FINAL
OCT: 177.57 TONNES FINAL ( MUCH SMALLER THAN LAST MONTH)
NOV. 223.98 TONNES//FINAL ( MUCH LARGER THAN PREVIOUS MONTHS//comex running out of physical)
DEC: 185.59 tonnes // FINAL
TOTAL: 2,847,25 TONNES/2022
JAN 2023: 228.49 TONNES FINAL//HUGE AMOUNT OF EFP’S ISSUED THIS MONTH!!
FEB: 151.61 TONNES/FINAL
MARCH: 280.09 TONNES/INITIAL (ANOTHER STRONG MONTH FOR EFP ISSUANCE)
APRIL: 197.42 TONNES
MAY: 236.67 TONNES (A VERY STRONG ISSUANCE FOR THIS MONTH)
JUNE: 172.667 TONNES (WEAKER ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
JULY: 151.69 TONNES (WEAKER THAN LAST MONTH)
AUGUST: 195.28 TONNES (A STRONGER MONTH)//FINAL
SEPT: 254.709 TONNES (WILL BE LARGER THAN LAST MONTH AND A STRONG MONTH)
OCT. 248.09 TONNES. LIKE SILVER, THIS MONTH IS GOING TO BE A STRONG E.F.P. ISSUANCE.
NOV. 239.16 TONNES//WILL BE STRONG THIS MONTH,
DEC. 213.704 TONNES. A STRONG MONTH//
TOTAL FOR YEAR 2023: 2,569.57 TONNES VS 2578 TONNES LAST YEAR
JAN ’24: 291.76 TONNES (WILL BE MUCH GREATER THAN LAST MONTH.//3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL)
FEB’24: 201.947 TONNES
MARCH 2024: 352.21 TONNES//2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE.
APRIL: 267.05TONNES (WILL BE AN EXTREMELY STRONG MONTH BUT LESS THAN MARCH 2024)
MAY; 316.606 TONNES (WILL BE ANOTHER STRONG MONTH// 3RD HIGHEST RECORDED EFP ISSUANCE )// NOTICE THE HUGE INCREASES IN EX FOR PHYSICAL THESE PAST FEW MONTHS. THESE CONTRACTS ARE CIRCLED BACK FROM LONDON WHEREBY METAL IS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX.
JUNE 175.11 tonnes HEADING FOR A WEAKER MONTH AND MUCH LESS THAN THE THREE PREVIOUS MONTHS
JULY: 351. 65 TONNES (3RD HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL AND THE HIGHEST EVER RECORDED POST BASEL III)
AUGUST: 274.79 TONNES//THIS MONTH WILL NO DOUBT BE A STRONG ISSUANCE OF EFP’S BUT MUCH LESS THAN LAST MONTH.
SEPT: 335 .104 TONNES//IF THIS CONTINUES WE WILL HAVE A HUMDINGER OF AN EFP ISSUANCE. WE WILL PROBABLY END JUST SHORT OF THE 3RD HIGHEST ISSUANCE EVER RECORDED.
OCT. 277.71 TONNES (THIS WILL BE A GOOD ISSUANCE THIS MONTH)
NOV: 393.875 TONNES ( A HUGE MONTH////NOW SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS 3RD AND 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED EX FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE TO BECOME THE 2ND HIGHEST EVER RECORDED
DEC 14.35 TONNES
SPREADING OPERATIONS
(/NOW SWITCHING TO GOLD) FOR NEWCOMERS, HERE ARE THE DETAILS
SPREADING LIQUIDATION HAS NOW COMMENCED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE NEW ACTIVE FRONT MONTH OF SEPTEMBER. WE ARE NOW INTO THE SPREADING OPERATION OF GOLD
HERE IS A BRIEF SYNOPSIS OF HOW THE CROOKS FLEECE UNSUSPECTING LONGS IN THE SPREADING ENDEAVOUR ;MODUS OPERANDI OF THE CORRUPT BANKERS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THEIR SPREAD OPEN INTERESTS:HERE IS HOW THE CROOKS USED SPREADING AS WE ARE NOW INTO THE NON ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF NOV HEADING TOWARDS THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF FEB., FOR GOLD: AND MARCH FOR SILVER
YOU WILL ALSO NOTICE THAT THE COMEX OPEN INTEREST STARTS TO RISE BUT SO IS THE OPEN INTEREST OF SPREADERS. THE OPEN INTEREST IN WILL CONTINUE TO RISE UNTIL ONE WEEK BEFORE FIRST DAY NOTICE OF AN UPCOMING ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH (OCT), AND THAT IS WHEN THE CROOKS SELL THEIR SPREAD POSITIONS BUT NOT AT THE SAME TIME OF THE DAY. THEY WILL USE THE SELL SIDE OF THE EQUATION TO CREATE THE CASCADE (ALONG WITH THEIR COLLUSIVE FRIENDS) AND THEN COVER ON THE BUY SIDE OF THE SPREAD SITUATION AT THE END OF THE DAY. THEY DO THIS TO AVOID POSITION LIMIT DETECTION. THE LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADING FORMATION CONTINUES FOR EXACTLY ONE WEEK AND ENDS ON FIRST DAY NOTICE.”
WHAT IS ALARMING TO ME, ACCORDING TO OUR LONDON EXPERT ANDREW MAGUIRE IS THAT THESE EFP’S ARE BEING TRANSFERRED TO WHAT ARE CALLED SERIAL FORWARD CONTRACT OBLIGATIONS AND THESE CONTRACTS ARE LESS THAN 14 DAYS. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 14 DAYS, THESE MUST BE RECORDED AND SENT TO THE COMPTROLLER, GREAT BRITAIN TO MONITOR RISK TO THE BANKING SYSTEM. IF THIS IS INDEED TRUE, THEN THIS IS A MASSIVE CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD AS WE NOW WITNESS A MONSTROUS TOTAL EFP’S ISSUANCE AS IT HEADS INTO THE STRATOSPHERE.
The crooks also use the spread in the TAS account (trade at settlement). They buy the spot TAS (e.g. June) and sell the future TAS two months out (e.g. August). Then they unload the front month (i.e. unload the buy side first so the price of gold/silver falls. This occurs in the middle of the front delivery month cycle. They unload the sell side of the equation, two months down the road. The crooks violate position limits as the OCC refuse to hear our complaints.
First, here is an outline of what will be discussed tonight:
1.TODAY WE HAD THE OPEN INTEREST AT THE COMEX IN SILVER FELL BY A MONSTER SIZED 4750 CONTRACTS OI TO 132,900 AND FURTHER FROM THE COMEX HIGH RECORD //244,710( SET FEB 25/2020). THE LAST RECORDS WERE SET IN AUG.2018 AT 244,196 WITH A SILVER PRICE OF $14.78/(AUGUST 22/2018)..THE PREVIOUS RECORD TO THAT WAS SET ON APRIL 9/2018 AT 243,411 OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS WITH THE SILVER PRICE AT THAT DAY: $16.53). AND PREVIOUS TO THAT, THE RECORD WAS ESTABLISHED AT: 234,787 CONTRACTS, SET ON APRIL 21.2017 OVER 7 YEARS AGO. HOWEVER WE HAVE NOW SET A NEW RECORD LOW OF 114,102 CONTRACTS JULY 3.2023
EFP ISSUANCE 460 CONTRACTS
OUR CUSTOMARY MIGRATION OF COMEX LONGS CONTINUE TO MORPH INTO LONDON FORWARDS AS OUR BANKERS USED THEIR EMERGENCY PROCEDURE TO ISSUE:
DEC 460 and ALL OTHER MONTHS: ZERO. TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 460 CONTRACTS. EFP’S GIVE OUR COMEX LONGS A FIAT BONUS PLUS A DELIVERABLE PRODUCT OVER IN LONDON. IF WE TAKE THE COMEX OI LOSS OF 4750 CONTRACTS AND ADD TO THE 460 E.FP. ISSUED
WE OBTAIN A MONSTER SIZED LOSS OF OPEN INTEREST CONTRACTS FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES OF 4290 CONTRACTS
THUS IN OUNCES, THE LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES TOTALS 21.440 MILLION OZ OCCURRED DESPITE OUR $0.51 GAIN IN PRICE
OUTLINE FOR TODAY’S COMMENTARY
1a/COMEX GOLD AND SILVER REPORT
(report Harvey)
b, ) Gold/silver trading overnight Europe,//GOLD COMMENTARIES
(Peter Schiff)
c) Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
ii a) Chris Powell of GATA provides to us very important physical commentaries
b. Other gold/silver commentaries
c. Commodity commentaries//
d)/CRYPTOCURRENCIES/BITCOIN ETC
2.ASIAN AFFAIRS//
MONDAY MORNING SUNDAY NIGHT
ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.53 PTS OR 1.13%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 126.68 PTS OR 0.65%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 304.99 OR 0.80%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.07%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2722 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2845// Oil DOWN TO 68.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 72.65 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
A)NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
outline
b) REPORT ON JAPAN/
OUTLINE
3 CHINA
OUTLINE
4/EUROPEAN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
5. RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
OUTLINE
6.Global Issues//COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES
OUTLINE
7. OIL ISSUES
OUTLINE
8 EMERGING MARKET ISSUES
9. USA
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1. COMEX DATA//AMOUNTS STANDING//VOLUME OF TRADING/INVENTORY MOVEMENTS
GOLD
LET US BEGIN:
THE TOTAL COMEX GOLD OPEN INTEREST FELL BY A VERY STRONG SIZED 10,518 CONTRACTS TO 457,765 DESPITE OUR GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.00 WITH RESPECT TO FRIDAY’S TRADING. , WE LOST ZERO NET LONGS AS WE HAD A STRONG PRICE GAIN FOR GOLD AS YOU WILL SEE BELOW AND WE HAD AN HUGE NUMBER OF EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUED (4615).
THE LIQUIDATION OF T.A.S. CONTRACTS THROUGHOUT LAST MONTH CONTINUES TO DISTORT OPEN INTEREST NUMBERS GREATLY AND IT SURELY WAS ON DISPLAY THIS ENTIRE WEEK AND ESPECIALLY DURING FRIDAY’S GAIN IN PRICE. WE LOST A HUGE NUMBER OF OI CONTRACTS MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WE HAD A HUGE TA.S. LIQUIDATION COUPLED WITH FRIDAY’S FINALIZATION OF MONTH END LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS. HOWEVER MANY OF THE REMAINING LONGS REMAIN STICKY AS THEIR AIM IS TO TAKE DELIVERY OF PHYSICAL GOLD NOT WORRYING TOO MUCH ON CONSTANT SELLING OF THESE CONTRACTS.
THE FED IS THE MAJOR SHORT OF AROUND 93+ TONNES OF GOLD OWING TO THE B.I.S. THE FED NEEDS TO COVER AS THEY ARE VERY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN TO GOLD PRICES ONCE THE BRICS BEGIN THEIR INITIATIVE AND ABANDON THE US DOLLAR. THIS IS SCHEDULED TO HAPPEN LATE OCT 2024/(AS OUTLINED IN OUR GOLD PHYSICAL COMMENTARIES//VIEW ANDREW MAGUIRE LATEST LIVE FROM VAULT PODCAST 197 , 199, AND FRIDAY NIGHTS 201 AS HE TACKLES THIS IMPORTANT TOPIC). THE FOUR OR FIVE BANKS ARE ALSO WORRIED ABOUT THEIR HUGE PRECIOUS METAL DERIVATIVE EXPOSURE (NORTH OF ONE TRILLION DOLLARS) AND THIS IS PROBABLY THE MAJOR REASON FOR GOLD/SILVER’S RISE THESE PAST TWO MONTHS. THEY ARE TOTALLY TRAPPED., AND THEIR FAILURE TO STOP CENTRAL BANK PURCHASES OF PHYSICAL GOLD IS THE MAJOR ISSUE OF THE DAY! ACTUALLY THE FED HAS COAXED THE SPECULATORS TO GO MASSIVELY SHORT WHILE THEY TAKE THE LONG SIDE AFTER THEY COMMENCE THE AVALANCHE IN LOWERING THE PRICE OF GOLD. THIS WAS SURELY ON DISPLAY FRIDAY.
OUR PHYSICAL LONDONERS BOUGHT NEW MASSIVE QUANTITIES OF LONGS AT ANY PRICE AND THIS GOLD BOUGHT WILL BE TENDERED FOR PHYSICAL ON A T + 1 BASIS. BECAUSE GOLD IS BASEL III COMPLIANT, GOLD MUST BE DELIVERED IN A VERY TIMELY ONE DAY. CENTRAL BANKS AROUND THE WORLD, BEING REPRESENTED BY OUR LONDONERS, ARE THE REAL PURCHASERS OF THIS GOLD.
WE HAD A STRONG T.A.S. LIQUIDATION THROUGHOUT LAST WEEK’S TRADING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
THE PROBLEM FOR THOSE PROVIDING THE SHORT PAPER IS THE SHOCK TO THEM ON RECEIVING NOTICE THAT THE LONGS WANT THE PHYSICAL GOLD AS THEY TENDER FOR THAT SHINY YELLOW METAL. THE HIGH LIQUIDATION OF THE SPREADERS // T.A.S DURING LAST WEEK AND THIS WEEK IS SURELY DISTORTING COMEX OPEN INTEREST BUT THAT DOES NOT STOP LONDON’S ACCUMULATION OF PHYSICAL! YOU CAN ALSO VISUALIZE THAT PERFECTLY WITH THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF QUEUE JUMPING ORCHESTRATED BY CENTRAL BANKERS BOLTING AHEAD OF ORDINARY LONGS AS THEIR NEED FOR PHYSICAL IS GREAT AS THEY SCOUR THE PLANET LOOKING FOR GOLD
EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL ISSUANCE
WE ARE NOW ENTERING INTO THE ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH OF DECEMBER.… THE CME REPORTS THAT THE BANKERS ISSUED A STRONG SIZED TRANSFER THROUGH THE EFP ROUTE AS THESE LONGS RECEIVED A DELIVERABLE LONDON FORWARD TOGETHER WITH A FIAT BONUS.,
THAT IS A STRONG SIZED 4615 EFP CONTRACTS WERE ISSUED: : /DEC 4615 & ZERO FOR ALL OTHER MONTHS:
TOTAL EFP ISSUANCE: 4615 CONTRACTS. THESE EFP;S CIRCLE AROUND LONDON ON A 13 DAY BASIS AND ARE NOW USED BY GLOBAL CENTRAL BANKS TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD WITH THE OBLIGATION TO DELIVER BEING FORCED ONTO COMEX BANKS. THE GOLD DELIVERED COMES FROM LONDON.
ON A NET BASIS IN OPEN INTEREST WE LOST THE FOLLOWING TODAY ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES: A STRONG SIZED TOTAL OF 5,903 CONTRACTS IN THAT 4615 CONTRACT LONGS WERE TRANSFERRED AS EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS TO LONDON AND WE HAD A VERY STRONG SIZED LOSS OF 10,518 COMEX CONTRACTS..AND THIS STRONG LOSS ON OUR TWO EXCHANGES HAPPENED WITH OUR HUGE GAIN IN PRICE OF $16.00 FRIDAY// COMEX. THE EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICALS WILL BE USED BY CENTRAL BANKS, TO EXERCISE FOR PHYSICAL GOLD AS MENTIONED ABOVE.
AS PER OUR NEWBIE TRADE AT SETTLEMENT (TAS) MANIPULATION OPERATION (WHICH CRAIG HEMKE HAS POINTED OUT HAPPENS USUALLY DURING MID MONTH IN THE DELIVERY CYCLE), BUT NOW ON A DAILY BASIS, THE CME REPORTS THAT THE TOTAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WAS A NORMAL SIZED SIZED 1597 CONTRACTS, AND THESE WILL BE USED TO REPLENISH SUPPLIES.. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRADING AND SUPPLY OF CONTRACTS WAS ORCHESTRATED BY GOVERNMENT (FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK).
THROUGHOUT THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS, THE BANKERS CONTINUE TO SELL OFF THE LONG SIDE OF THE SPREAD (T.A.S.) WHICH OF COURSE CONTINUES TO MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF GOLD SOUTHBOUND. (THEY KEEP THE SHORT SIDE OF THE CALENDAR/T.A.S. SPREAD WHICH WILL BE LIQUIDATED IN DAYS HENCE//. IT SEEMS THAT OUR CROOKS ORCHESTRATED, ON MONDAY NOV 25, THEIR RAID TO LOWER THE PRICE OF GOLD TO MAKE THEIR COMEX BETS WHOLE ON OPTIONS EXPIRY WEEK AND THUS THE NEED FOR CONTINUAL STRONG T.A.S. ISSUANCE AND THEN LIQUIDATION (COUPLED WITH THE LIQUIDATION OF CALENDAR SPREADERS ). THE USE OF OUR TWO SPREADER MECHANISMS WERE OF EXTREME IMPORTANCE TO OUR CROOKS IN THIS WEEK’S TRADING. WE HAD CONTINUAL T.A.S. AND MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY.
// WE HAVE A STRONG AMOUNT OF GOLD TONNAGE STANDING: DEC (52.689 TONNES) WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR ACTIVE DEC DELIVERY MONTH.
HERE ARE THE AMOUNTS THAT STOOD FOR DELIVERY IN THE PRECEDING 47 MONTHS OF 2021-2024:
DEC 2021: 112.217 TONNES
NOV. 8.074 TONNES
OCT. 57.707 TONNES
SEPT: 11.9160 TONNES
AUGUST: 80.489 TONNES
JULY 7.2814 TONNES
JUNE: 72.289 TONNES
MAY 5.77 TONNES
APRIL 95.331 TONNES
MARCH 30.205 TONNES
FEB ’21. 113.424 TONNES
JAN ’21: 6.500 TONNES.
TOTAL YEAR 2021 (JAN- DEC): 601.213 TONNES
YEAR 2022:
JANUARY 2022 17.79 TONNES
FEB 2022: 59.023 TONNES
MARCH: 36.678 TONNES
APRIL: 85.340 TONNES FINAL.
MAY: 20.11 TONNES FINAL
JUNE: 74.933 TONNES FINAL
JULY 29.987 TONNES FINAL
AUGUST:104.979 TONNES//FINAL
SEPT. 38.1158 TONNES
OCT: 77.390 TONNES/ FINAL
NOV 27.110 TONNES/FINAL
Dec. 64.000 tonnes
(TOTAL YEAR 656.076 TONNES)
2023:
JAN/2023: 20.559 tonnes
FEB 2023: 47.744 tonnes
MAR: 19.0637 TONNES
APRIL: 75.676 tonnes
MAY: 19.094 TONNES + 1.244 tonnes of exchange for risk = 20.338
JUNE: 64.354 TONNES
JULY: 10.2861 TONNES
AUGUST: 38.855 TONNES(INCLUDING .6842 EXCHANGE FOR RISK)
SEPT: 15.281 TONNES FINAL
OCT. 35.869 TONNES + 1.665 EXCHANGE FOR RISK =37.0355 tonnes
NOV: 18.7122 TONNES + 16.2505 EX. FOR RISK = 34.9627 TONNES
DEC. 47.073 + 4.634 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK = 51.707 TONNES
TOTAL 2023 YEAR : 436.546 TONNES
2024
JAN ’24. 22.706 TONNES
FEB. ’24: 66.276 TONNES (INCLUDES 1.723 TONNES EX. FOR RISK)
MARCH: 18.8398 TONNES + 1.1695 EX FOR RISK = 20.093 TONNES
APRIL: 2024: 53.673TONNES FINAL
MAY/ 2024 8.5536 TONNES + 3.3716 TONNES EX FOR RISK/= 11.9325
JUNE; 95.578 TONNES. + 1.045 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =96.623 THIS IS THE HIGHEST RECORDED GOLD STANDING SINCE AUGUST 2022
JULY: 11.692 TONNES
AUGUST 69.602 TONNES//FINAL STANDING
SEPT. 13.164 TONNES.
OCT 39.474 TONNES + + 20.917 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK =60.391 TONNES
NOV . 11.265 TONNES +4.665 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/TUESDAY + 3.11 TONNES OF EX. FOR RISK/PRIOR = 19.0425 TONNES
DEC: 51.813 TONNES + .776 TONNES EXCHANGE FOR RISK/NEW TOTAL 52.689 TONNES
THE SPECS/HFT WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN LOWERING GOLD’S PRICE( IT ROSE BY A $16.00/)//AND WERE UNSUCCESSFUL IN KNOCKING OFF ANY NET SPECULATOR LONGS AS WE DID HAVE A HUGE GAIN IN PRICE WITH OUR TWO EXCHANGES AND WE DID HAVE HUGE T.A.S. SPREADER LIQUIDATION FRIDAY AND THIS WAS MAGNIFIED WITH FINALIZATION OF MONTH END SPREADER LIQUIDATION. WE ALSO HAD A NORMAL T.A.S. ISSUANCE AS THE NEED FOR REPLENISHMENT WAS STILL PRESENT. THIS COULD NOT STOP CENTRAL BANK LONGS, SEIZING THE MOMENT, EXERCISED AGAIN FOR PHYSICAL IN A BIG WAY TENDERING FOR PHYSICAL MONDAY EVENING. THEN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (EARLY SATURDAY MORNING) THE CME ANNOUNCED ANOTHER OF THOSE CRAZY DELIVERIES: THE ISSUANCE OF 250 EXCHANGE FOR RISK CONTRACTS WHICH TOTAL 25000 OZ (.7776 TONNES. HERE THE BUYER ASSUMES THE RISK THAT HE WILL BE DELIVERED UPON IN PHYSICAL METAL. THIS IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE AND A HUGE VIOLATION OF THE TRUE DISCOVERY PRICE MECHANISM.
WE HAVE LOST A TOTAL OF 16.115 PAPER TONNES FROM OUR TWO EXCHANGES, ACCOMPANYING OUR INITIAL GOLD TONNAGE STANDING FOR DEC (55.167TONNES) ON FIRST DAY NOTICE FOLLOWED BY TODAY’S HUGE E.F.P. JUMP OF 108,900 OZ OR 3.387 TONNES TO WHICH WE ADD THAT CRAZY .7776 TONNES OF EXCHANGE FOR RISK
/ STANDING FOR DEC DECREASES TO 52.689 TONNES
NEW STANDING FOR DECEMBER: 52.689 TONNES (WHICH IS HUGE FOR OUR VERY ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH)
ALL OF THIS WAS ACCOMPLISHED WITH OUR GAIN IN PRICE TO THE TUNE OF $16.00
WE HAD X722 CONTRACTS REMOVED FROM THE COMEX TRADES TO OPEN INTEREST (CROOKS)//PRELIMINARY TO FINAL.
NET LOSS ON THE TWO EXCHANGES 5903 CONTRACTS OR 590,300 OZ (18.360 TONNES)
confirmed volume FRIDAY 192,001 contracts: poor //// t.a.s. enhanced
//speculators have left the gold arena
END
DEC 2
/ /// THE DEC 2024 GOLD CONTRACT
| Gold | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory in oz | nil |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory in oz | NIL . |
| Deposit to the Dealer Inventory in oz | NIL OZ |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory, in oz | 150,,916.794 OZ 46,940 KILOBARS |
| No of oz served (contracts) today | 1741 notice(s) 174,100 OZ 5.415 TONNES |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1874 contracts 187,400 OZ 5.705 TONNES |
| Total monthly oz gold served (contracts) so far this month | 14,816 notices 1,481,600 oz 46.081 TONNES |
| Total accumulative withdrawals of gold from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of gold from the Customer inventory this month | x |
dealer deposits: 0
total dealer deposits: NIL oz
we have 0 customer deposits
total deposits NIL oz
withdrawals: 0
TOTAL WITHDRAWALS: 0 oz
adjustments: 0
CALCULATIONS FOR THE AMOUNT OF GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.
For the front month of DEC: we have an oi of 3574 contracts having LOST 14,164 contracts. We had
13,075 contracts served on Friday, so we lost 1,089 of 108,900 oz (3.387 tonnes) underwent an immediate
EFP transfer to London as they assessed there was no physical gold at the comex at this time. They exercised their EFP for immediate delivery on a T plus one basis. They decided it would be foolish to wait for the entire month hoping to be delivered upon. No doubt the issuance of 250 contracts of exchange for risk also influenced their decision
JANUARY GAINED 55 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 2183
FEBRUARY GAINED 1495 CONTRACTS TO 355,647 .
We had 1741 contracts filed for today representing 174,100 oz
This is a huge major assault on the comex for gold and this time it is physical that will be requested.
Today, 0 notice(s) were issued from J.P.Morgan dealer and 16 notices issued from their client or customer account. The total of all issuance by all participants equate to 1741 contract(s) of which 0 notices were stopped (received) by j.P. Morgan dealer and 1089 notice(s) was (were) stopped (received) by J.P.Morgan//customer account
To calculate the INITIAL total number of gold ounces standing for DEC /2024. contract month, we take the total number of notices filed so far for the month (14,816 x 100 oz ) to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC(3575 CONTRACTS) minus the number of notices served upon today (1741 x 100 oz per contract( equals 1,669,000 OZ OR 51.913 TONNES. to which we add .7776 tonnes of exchange for risk//new total: 52.689 tonnes
thus the INITIAL standings for gold for the DEC contract month: No of notices filed so far (14,816 x 100 oz +we add the difference for front month of DEC (3575 OI} minus the number of notices served upon today (1741 x 100 oz which equals 1,669,000 oz (51.913 TONNES) + .776 tonnes of ex. for risk//new total 52.689 TONNES
TOTAL COMEX GOLD STANDING FOR DEC.: 52.689 TONNES WHICH IS HUGE FOR THIS ACTIVE DELIVERY MONTH IN THE CALENDAR.
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COMEX GOLD INVENTORIES/CLASSIFICATION
NEW PLEDGED GOLD:
241,794.285 oz NOW PLEDGED /HSBC 5.94 TONNES
204,937.290 OZ PLEDGED MANFRA 3.08 TONNES
83,657.582 PLEDGED JPMorgan no 1 1.690 tonnes
265,999.054, oz JPM No 2
1,152,376.639 oz pledged Brinks/
Manfra: 33,758.550 oz
Delaware: 193.721 oz
International Delaware:: 11,188.542 oz
total pledged gold: 1,753,711.090 oz 54.54 tonnes
TOTAL OF ALL GOLD ELIGIBLE AND REGISTERED GOLD: 17,940,748.935 OZ
TOTAL REGISTERED GOLD 7,975,826.278/// 248.08 tonnes).
TOTAL OF ALL ELIGIBLE GOLD: 9,964922.207 OZ
REGISTERED GOLD THAT CAN BE SERVED UPON: 6,222,115 oz (REG GOLD- PLEDGED GOLD)= 193.53 tonnes //
JPMorgan enhanced inventory is 111.737 tonnes and thus 30.24% of entire inventory.
END
SILVER/COMEX
DEC 2. 2024
INITIAL
//2024// THE DEC 2024 SILVER CONTRACT//INITIAL
| Silver | Ounces |
| Withdrawals from Dealers Inventory | NIL oz |
| Withdrawals from Customer Inventory | 1000.000 OZ Delaware . |
| Deposits to the Dealer Inventory | nil oz |
| Deposits to the Customer Inventory | nil |
| No of oz served today (contracts) | 846 CONTRACT(S) (4.23 MILLION OZ) |
| No of oz to be served (notices) | 1118 contracts (5.590 MILLION oz) |
| Total monthly oz silver served (contracts) | 6302 Contracts (31.510 MILLION oz) |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Dealers inventory this month | NIL oz |
| Total accumulative withdrawal of silver from the Customer inventory this month |
i) 0 dealer deposit/
total dealer deposit : NIL oz
i) We had 0 dealer withdrawal
total dealer withdrawals: 0 oz
We had 0 customer deposits
total customer deposits nil oz
We had 0 withdrawals
total withdrawal nil oz
JPMorgan has a total silver weight: 134.401million oz/307.976million or 43.52%
adjustment 0
i)Manfra/customer to dealer 576,810.800 oz
ii) ASAHI dealer to customer; 1,201,542.150 oz
TOTAL REGISTERED SILVER: 79.410MILLION OZ//.TOTAL REG + ELIGIBLE. 307.970 million oz
CALCULATIONS FOR THE NEW STANDING FOR SILVER FOR DEC
silver open interest data:
FRONT MONTH OF DEC /2024 OI: 1964 OPEN INTEREST FOR A LOSS OF 6127 CONTRACTS. WE HAD
5456 CONTRACTS ISSUED ON FIRST DAY NOTICE SO WE HAD A HUGE 671 EXCHANGE FOR PHYSICAL TRANSFER TO LONDON (3.355 MILLION OZ) WHERE THEY WILL TAKE DELIVERY OVER ON THAT SIDE OF THE POND. THEY ASSESSED THAT THERE WAS NO PHYSICAL SILVER OVER HERE SO THEY HAVE TRIED THEIR LUCK ON TAKING DELIVERY IN LONDON.
JANUARY SAW A LOSS OF 181 CONTRACTS DOWN TO 2430
FEBRUARY SAW ITS INITITAL GAIN OF 5 CONTRACTS TO STAND AT 5
MARCH SAW A GAIN OF 296 CONTRACTS UP TO 110,840
TOTAL NUMBER OF NOTICES FILED FOR TODAY: 846 for 4.23 MILLION oz
CONFIRMED volume; ON FRIDAY 79,395- strong// t.a.s. enhanced
To calculate the number of silver ounces that will stand for delivery in DEC we take the total number of notices filed for the month so far at 6302x 5,000 oz = 31.510 MILLION oz
to which we add the difference between the open interest for the front month of DEC (1964) and the number of notices served upon today (846)x (5000 oz)
Thus the standings for silver for the DEC 2024 contract month: 6302 Notices served so far) x 5000 oz + OI for the front month of DEC(1964) minus number of notices served upon today (846)x 5000 oz equals silver standing for the DEC contract month equating to 37.10 MILLION OZ. + to which we add .66 million oz of exchange for risk PRIOR//new total 37.76
New total standing: 37.76 million oz.
There are 79.410 million oz of registered silver.
The record level of silver open interest is 234,787 contracts set on April 21./2017 with the price on that day at $18.42. The previous record was 224,540 contracts with the price at that time of $20.44.
Now that we have surpassed $28.40 the next big line in the sand for silver is $34.76. After that the moon
END
BOTH GLD AND SLV ARE MASSIVE FRAUDS!
GLD AND SLV INVENTORY LEVELS//
DEC 2 WITH GOLD DOWN $20.20 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 29 WITH GOLD UP $16.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : Z WITHDRAWAL OF .86 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 878.55 TONNES
NOV 27 WITH GOLD UP $18.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : . .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNE
NOV 26 WITH GOLD UP $3.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD : A DEPOSIT OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLDINTO THE GLD. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 879.41 TONNES
NOV 25 WITH GOLD DOWN $91.60 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD :. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.97 TONNES
NOV 21 WITH GOLD UP $23.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 875,39 TONNES
NOV 20 WITH GOLD UP $22.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 0.58 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 872.23 TONNES
NOV 19 WITH GOLD UP $13.00 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871.65 TONNES
NOV 18 WITH GOLD UP $44.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A DEPOSIT OF 2.56 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 869.93 TONNES
NOV 15 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.25 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 867.37 TONNES
NOV 14 WITH GOLD DOWN $12.90 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.91 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 868.62 TONNES
NOV 13 WITH GOLD DOWN $19.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 870.63 TONNES
NOV 12 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.88 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 871,97 TONNE
NOV 11 WITH GOLD DOWN $75.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.74 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.85 TONNES
NOV 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 7 WITH GOLD UP $30.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.45 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 883.46 TONNES
NOV 6 WITH GOLD DOWN $72.80 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD/:. .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 886.91 TONNES
NOV 5 WITH GOLD UP $4.05 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD:.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $2.45 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.16 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
NOV 1 WITH GOLD UP 0.15 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.86 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891 TONNES
OCT 31 WITH GOLD DOWN $49.55 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 2.87 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 892.65 TONNES
OCT 30 WITH GOLD UP $20.10 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889,78 TONNES
OCT 29 WITH GOLD UP $25.35 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.72 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 891.50 TONNES
OCT 28 WITH GOLD UP $1.50 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD FROM THE GLD.// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 889.78 TONNES
OCT 25 WITH GOLD UP $6.40 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 24 WITH GOLD UP $19.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.44 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 893.80 TONNES
OCT 23 WITH GOLD DOWN $29.40 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 3.45 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 895.24 TONNES
OCT 21 WITH GOLD UP $9.30 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD: A DEPOSIT OF 1.277 TONNES // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 888.63 TONNES
OCT 18 WITH GOLD UP $22.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 17 WITH GOLD UP $17.30 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD // // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 16 WITH GOLD UP $13.60 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.02 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 884.59 TONNES
OCT 15 WITH GOLD UP $2.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD //A MONSTER DEPOSIT OF 4.31 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD.; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 880.57 TONNES
OCT 11 WITH GOLD UP $36.55 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 10 WITH GOLD UP $14.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 9 WITH GOLD DOWN $8.50 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 8 WITH GOLD DOWN $28,.95 ON THE DAY; NO CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; // . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 7 WITH GOLD DOWN $1.85 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.15 TONNES OF GOLD OUT OF THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 876.26 TONNES
OCT 4 WITH GOLD DOWN $11.20 ON THE DAY; HUGE CHANGES IN GOLD AT THE GLD; A DEPOSIT OF 12.57 TONNES OF GOLD INTO THE GLD// . // .///INVENTORY RESTS AT 877.41 TONNES
GLD INVENTORY: 878.55 TONNES, TONIGHTS TOTAL
SILVER
DEC 2 WITH SILVER DOWN 19 CENTS //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,458,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 472.924 MILLION OZ
NOV 29 WITH SILVER UP 51 CENTS //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV. A WITHDRAWAL OF 365,000 OZ FROM THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.382 MILLION OZ
NOV 27 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.25 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 26 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.094 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV./.. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 474.747 MILLION OZ
NOV 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.96 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 22 WITH SILVER UP $0.40 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 21 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.06 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.729 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV. . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 20 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.22 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: . /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.572 MILLION OZ
NOV 19 WITH SILVER UP $0.10 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 5,742,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477..572 MILLION OZ
NOV 18 WITH SILVER UP $0.68 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 1,277,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 15 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.09 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 3,100,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471,830 MILLION OZ
NOV 14 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.07 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,504,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.653 MILLION OZ
NOV 13 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.16 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 1,274,000 OZ OUT OF THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.157 MILLION OZ
NOV 12 WITH SILVER UP $0.16 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 576,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 476.000 MILLION OZ
NOV 11 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.79 //SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A WITHDRAWAL OF 374,000 OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.527 MILLION OZ
NOV 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.43 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:A DEPOSIT OF 2.005 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV. /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.846 MILLION OZ
NOV 7 WITH SILVER UP $0.11 //NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: /// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 6 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 //HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 3.692 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 475.841 MILLION OZ
NOV 5 WITH SILVER UP 0.18 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.109 MILLION OZ FROM THE SLV/.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 479,533 MILLION OZ
NOV 4 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.08 :SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 547,000 OZ.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.642 MILLION OZ
NOV 1 WITH SILVER DOWN $0.10 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV:.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 31 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.26 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A DEPOSIT OF 3.647 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV//.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 481.189 MILLION OZ
OCT 30 WITH SILVER DOWN 38 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 29 WITH SILVER UP 49 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.628 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.542 MILLION OZ
OCT 28 WITH SILVER UP 15 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 1.431 MILLION OZ OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.180 MILLION OZ
OCT 25 WITH SILVER DOWN $0,02 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.06 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 480.281 MILLION OZ
OCT 24 WITH SILVER UP $0,01 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.684 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477.177 MILLION OZ
OCT 23 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.15 : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A WITHDRAWAL OF 0.228 MILLION OZ OF SILVER OUT OF THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 477,861 MILLION OZ
OCT 22 WITH SILVER $0.93 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV’ A DEPOSIT OF 3.329 MILLION OZ OF SILVER INTO THE SLV..//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 478.089 MILLION OZ
OCT 18 WITH SILVER $1.46 : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 17 WITH SILVER DOWN 18 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV//A DEPOSIT OF 3.419 MILLION OZ INTO THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 473.483 MILLION OZ
OCT 16 WITH SILVER UP 25 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV// //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 15 WITH SILVER DOWN 2 CENTS : SMALL CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 456,,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.064 MILLION OZ
OCT 11 WITH SILVER UP 53 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV: A WITHDRAWAL OF 932,000 OZ FORM THE SLV. //INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 470.520 MILLION OZ
OCT 9 WITH SILVER UP 7 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.964 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 471.432 MILLION OZ
OCT 8 WITH SILVER DOWN $1.41 : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A DEPOSIT OF 2.007 MILLION OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 468.468 MILLION OZ
OCT 7 WITH SILVER DOWN 39 CENTS : HUGE CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV A WITHDRAWAL OF 684,000 OZ FORM THE SLV..: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 466.461 MILLION OZ
OCT 4 WITH SILVER UP 0 CENTS : NO CHANGES IN SILVER INVENTORY AT THE SLV.: /INVENTORY AT SLV RESTS AT 465.777MILLION OZ
CLOSING INVENTORY 472.924 MILLION OZ//
PHYSICAL GOLD/SILVER COMMENTARIES
1/ PETER SCHIFF/SCHIFF GOLD/MIKE MAHARRY
Peter Schiff: It’s Time For Downward Revisions
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 06:30 AM
On Saturday, Peter took to his podcast to cover last week’s economic news and political events. In this episode, he discusses rumors of large downward revisions in jobs numbers, the issues with and irony of a state Bitcoin reserve, and the striking resemblance between the government’s spending situation and a Ponzi scheme.
Peter addresses the possibility that very large downward revisions in jobs numbers are going to be announced. Now that the election is over, there’s no need for government statisticians to manipulate the numbers:
On Wednesday of this week, the Department of Labor announced that it’s very close to another major downward revision in the non-farm payroll numbers. This will affect the numbers from June 2023 up until June 2024. An entire year’s worth of jobs reports is about to get significantly revised lower. … [The government] is now going to say, ‘Oops, we’re sorry, they weren’t created at all.’ … I specifically said it would happen after the election, when there was no longer a reason to sugarcoat these numbers.
If this really is the case, there could be major ramifications in foreign exchange and the gold markets, which responded throughout the year to the relatively optimistic labor statistics:
It’s most likely that if you reduce any given month by about 100,000 jobs, you’re going to end up turning a job number that was a beat because it was above estimates into a miss because it was below estimates. So it means all of the headlines were wrong. The market reaction was wrong. If the dollar rallied, if gold sold off, if the market rallied based on a beat, it wasn’t a beat. It was a miss.
Peter turns to increased optimism about the creation of a government Bitcoin reserve. He points out the irony in this situation:
If they do that, it’s great for the people who own Bitcoin, who can sell their Bitcoin to the unwilling U.S. taxpayer who is being forced to buy Bitcoin at gunpoint. Because that’s the coercive power of the state, which is the ultimate irony, right? Because Bitcoin was supposed to be anti-government. It was a way to circumvent government, to get out of fiat currencies. This is a decentralized thing. It’s away from government. It’s voluntary. It’s the free market. But its salvation now is the government. It’s the government buying Bitcoin that everybody is now counting on to make the price go up.
With companies like Microstrategy and Mara Holdings dumping billions into Bitcoin, Peter worries that we’re foolishly misallocating capital in what amounts to a Bitcoin bubble.
But if capital is going into these ridiculous money-losing businesses that are just gambling on Bitcoin, where is it coming out of? We don’t have an unlimited supply of investment capital, right? So any capital that is directed to Bitcoin, blockchain, crypto, is capital that can’t go someplace else. It can’t go someplace where it’s actually needed to produce real goods, real things. Instead, it’s being squandered.
Peter speculates on what Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent will do if confirmed by the Senate:
I know that Scott Bessent has reiterated his belief that the U.S. dollar should stay as the reserve currency. And of course, he’s not going to say the opposite. I mean, it’d be ridiculous to say the opposite. But I think the markets are probably going to take that to mean, ‘Oh, well, I guess we’re going to have the strong dollar policy, return to the strong dollar policy.’ But we never really had a strong dollar policy.
Peter wraps up by comparing the way the government uses debt and spending to a Ponzi scheme. The only difference? The government doesn’t try to hide it:
Every time that we get to the debt ceiling, what does the government say? If we don’t raise the debt ceiling, we’re going to default. If we can’t borrow more money, we’re not going to pay back any of the money we already owe. Well, that is an admission that you’re running a Ponzi scheme. You’re telling everybody that it’s a Ponzi scheme. I mean, Bernie Madoff would never do that. It’s Ponzi 101. You got to keep that quiet.
For more analysis of the week’s events, check out Friday’s episode of the SchiffGold Gold Wrap Podcast.
2/ Commentaries from: Egon von Greyerz///Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com, Pam and Russ Martens
Why the failure of US economic policy will reignite inflation
In this article I look at the inflationary consequences for the dollar of Trump’s proposed tariffs. Hint: it’s not good!
| Alasdair MacleodDec 1∙Paid |
Last week, I explained why I thought that the economic policies of Trump/Bessent 2025 would fail. The assumption is that they would pursue MAGA (make America great again) by tax policies favourable to businesses while protecting their markets through tariffs. Both Trump and his nominee for Treasury Secretary have promised to cut corporation and income taxes and to raise revenue instead through tariffs —“the most beautiful word”. And DOGE (a new Department of Government Efficiency headed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy) would cut out wasteful spending to the tune of $2 trillion.
As Dr Johnson said of second marriages, DOGE represents the triumph of hope over experience. And it won’t be the first time that brilliant businessmen such as Musk have been bested by government bureaucracy. Either they knuckle under into a thoroughly bureaucratic environment, in which case their attempts to reduce wasteful spending fail, or they face ignominious defeat and resignation. Whichever way, the cuts in spending are not going to materialise to any degree, and the revenue shift from corporate and income taxes to tariffs will be attempted against a background of a rapidly tightening Federal debt trap, making funding the budget deficit increasingly difficult.
Bubbles accumulate and eventually pop
Since 1981, I have counted six debt bubbles or crunches: two in the ‘eighties, one in the ‘nineties, the dotcom in 2000, the securitisation crisis of 2008, and the repo crisis in 2019. From the first of these forty years ago, all these events have been addressed by the Fed collapsing interest rates to progressively lower levels, a policy which has prevented each bubble from having been resolved — kicking the can down the road. Instead, they have been rolled up into the following one, ensuring that it becomes more potentially catastrophic. And each successive cut in interest rates took them lower, ending with zero in 2020.
All the surges in interest rates which precipitate these crises have been reversed by the Fed forcing interest rates lower. The process whereby capital is withdrawn from failures and redirected towards the promise of economic progress is prevented. Unless there is a washing of the spears, malinvestments continue to accumulate and zombies are perpetuated. Muscling rates lower when they should rise has always been the Fed’s response.
So, how are they going to deal with this bubble when bond yields rise again, and equities crash?
Realistically, the Fed cannot force rates into negative territory. Furthermore, the US Government is now ensnared in its own debt bubble, with foreigners reluctant to buy. We faced this problem in the UK in the 1970s, when sterling began to slide in a deepening recession, and gilts had to have coupons of 15% and more to fund the government’s deficit. It was called a buyers’ strike.
Today, it is commonly suggested that quantitative easing must return. But that’s printing dollars when consumer price inflation has already resumed, and with Trump’s tariffs is set to persist.
In last week’s article I also pointed to the dangers of tariffs fuelling an economic slump, which was the consequence of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930. This time round, we can expect a new round of trade tariffs, which will be on top of Trump’s earlier ones and those of the Biden administration (not to mention the protectionist tariffs of earlier presidents) almost certainly tipping the whole international trading system over the edge, as supply chains are rapidly forced into closing down.
But there is another effect which will fuel inflation. Unless American citizens become savers rather than spendthrifts, then consumer prices must rise. How credit is sourced is what matters.
Assume that there is a budget deficit. And assume that it is financed by consumers deferring their purchases, or in other words saving to buy the necessary debt. Immediate consumption declines, and demand for goods and services with it. Given there is a continuing supply of goods and services from both domestic production and imports, this fall in immediate demand results in lower consumer price inflation to the extent that savings have increased. Furthermore, this fall in demand is reflected in lower imports. This is precisely the reason why Japan and China have persistently low inflation accompanied by a high savings rate, and trade surpluses.
Alternatively, if the government’s budget deficit is financed not by savings, but by the expansion of bank credit, then consumption is enhanced by the extra credit as government spends it into the economy. There is now a surplus of demand for goods, which broadly leads to an increase in net imports, leading to a trade deficit.
Now let us assume that tariffs and import restrictions are imposed, and there is no change in the savings rate. Fuelled by excess government spending over revenues and the funding of the deficit being by bank credit unmatched by increased consumer savings, prices will rise due to this “printed” supply of credit and the restriction of imported supplies.
Trump’s desire to impose yet more protectionist tariffs is therefore bound to increase consumer price inflation, while potentially driving the world into the tit-for-tat tariff wars that made Smoot-Hawley so destructive. If the Smoot-Hawley effect is repeated, the world including America will face a deepening recession, which used to be called a slump. This will undermine government revenues while increasing welfare and other liabilities, increasing the budget deficit even more.
There is a worrying circularity in all this. Unless Americans save, inflationary pressures from deficit spending will increase, undermining the dollar which is already in a debt trap of 130% relative to nominal GDP. And a fall in nominal GDP will rapidly propel that ratio substantially higher.
If the Fed tries to cover this escalating debt by QE and by pushing the interest rate back to zero, it will be the only buyer of Federal debt. But it will have to completely abandon its inflation mandate. Without this intervention, bond yields would be far, far higher — likely climbing even above the 15%+ seen in sterling gilts in the mid-1970s.
To foreign holders of dollars, the collapse in their financial asset values which is the consequence of higher bond yields will lead to massive dollar liquidation at precisely the time when the Federal Government needs more buyers of their debt.
Until we know otherwise, the proposed Trump-Bessent tariffs of 2025 are almost certain to collapse the value of dollar credit. The wise, including foreign central banks are already getting out of dollar credit into real money, which is gold.
END
Morning Bid: Trump’s BRICS warning shines light on emerging FX
December 1, 20246:28 PM ESTUpdated 5 hours ago
Item 1 of 2 U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends a viewing of the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket, in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024 . Brandon Bell/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
[1/2]U.S. President-elect Donald Trump attends a viewing of the launch of the sixth test flight of the SpaceX Starship rocket, in Brownsville, Texas, U.S., November 19, 2024 . Brandon Bell/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab
Dec 2 (Reuters) – A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
The global market spotlight on Monday looks set to zoom in on the dollar, especially its performance against emerging market currencies, after U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s weekend warning against the so-called ‘BRICS’ nations.
In a social media post on Saturday, Trump demanded that the ‘BRICS’ countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that would replace the U.S. dollar, or face 100% tariffs.
This comes after Trump had already injected additional volatility into world currency markets last week by proposing big tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada – countries the US has some of its largest trade deficits with.
The dollar’s path on Monday will be fascinating to observe. It snapped an eight-week winning streak last week with its steepest weekly fall since mid-August, as U.S. rate cut expectations cooled and Treasury yields fell.
But much of the dollar’s downward momentum last week was down to its weakness against the euro and yen. It has been much firmer against other G10 currencies – not least the Canadian dollar – and especially emerging and Asian currencies.
Sentiment toward emerging markets as the final month of the year begins is still mostly downbeat. Outflows from EM bond funds remain heavy, and according to analysts at Barclays EM hard-currency bond funds last week registered their second-largest outflow so far this year.
But there are more encouraging signs from China that the raft of stimulus and support measures from Beijing in recent months may be beginning to bear fruit.
A private survey on Sunday showed that new home prices in China rose at a year-on-year rate of 2.40% in November versus 2.08% in October. And on Saturday, China’s official purchasing managers index data showed that factory activity expanded modestly for a second straight month in November, and at its fastest pace in seven months.
Is there light at the end of the tunnel for China’s domestic economy? With Trump ramping up the trade threats ahead of his inauguration next month, policymakers in Beijing and China bulls will certainly be hoping so.
Asia’s economic calendar on Monday sees the release of a raft of manufacturing PMI reports, including China’s ‘unofficial’ Caixin manufacturing PMI data for November. Will that reinforce the modestly encouraging signals from the ‘official’ figures over the weekend?
Economists polled by Reuters expect a reading of 50.5, up from 50.3 in October, which would mark the fastest pace of expansion since June.
Other regional highlights on Monday include the latest Australian retail sales data and inflation figures from Indonesia. According to a Reuters poll, consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 1.50% in November, cooling from 1.71% the previous month. That would be the lowest rate of annual inflation since June 2021.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Monday:
– China Caixin manufacturing PMI (November)
– Australia retail sales (November)
– Indonesia inflation (November)
3. CHRIS POWELL AND GATA DISPATCHES
China expands trading to acquire more Western gold and silver, Maguire tells LFTV
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-11-29 22:29 Section: Daily Dispatches
10:27p ET Friday, November 29, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
The People’s Bank of China has just authorized millions of smaller companies and traders to buy gold and silver on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, London metals trader Andrew Maguire says in this week’s episode of Kinesis Money’s “Live from the Vault” program. This expansion of trading, Maguire says, is designed to draw much more Western metal into China. He expects the gold price to reach $3,000 by the end of December and the new buying from China to set silver on its way to $100.
The program is 41 minutes long and can be viewed at YouTube here:
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
end
Trump takes off the gloves: If any nation vacates the use of the USA dollar they will face 100% tariffs
(Reuters)
Trump threatens 100% tariffs against nations that replace U.S. dollar
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-11-30 14:19 Section: Daily Dispatches
Trump Warns BRICS Nations Against Replacing U.S. Dollar
By Lucia Mutikani and Ismail Shakil
Reuters
Saturday, November 30, 2024
WASHINGTON — U.S. President-elect Donald Trump today demanded that BRICS member countries commit to not creating a new currency or supporting another currency that would replace the United States dollar or face 100% tariffs.
“We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new BRICS currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty U.S. dollar or they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. economy,” Trump wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social.
“They can go find another ‘sucker.’ There is no chance that the BRICS will replace the U.S. dollar in international trade, and any country that tries should wave goodbye to America.”
end
Eastern European central banks are now among biggest buyers of gold
Submitted by admin on Fri, 2024-11-29 10:08 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Peter Laca
Bloomberg News
Thursday, November 28, 2024
This year the Czech Republic’s central bank chief flew to London to have a look at a swelling stack of gold bars stored in the Bank of England’s concrete-encased vaults beneath Threadneedle Street.
The mission of the central banker, Ales Michl, to inspect the precious metal held for the Czech National Bank was part of the governor’s stated ambition to double the country’s stockpile to 100 metric tons in the next three years. It has increased fivefold since he took office in 2022 with an aim to diversify the bank’s reserves.
“We need to reduce volatility,” Michl, who grew animated when queried on the subject, told Bloomberg Television this month. “And for that we need an asset with zero correlation to stocks, and that asset is gold.”
The Czech policymaker isn’t alone in accelerating bullion purchases. Peers from Warsaw to Belgrade are joining the gold rush as a way to diversify investments and bet on price increases, making eastern Europe one of the biggest buyers of the metal and helping to drive the gold rally. …
… For the remainder of the report:
end
Russia imposes temporary ban on export of precious metals waste and scrap
Submitted by admin on Sun, 2024-12-01 10:58 Section: Daily Dispatches
From Interfax, London
Monday, November 25, 2024
MOSCOW — The Russian government has introduced a temporary ban on the export of waste and scrap of precious metals from December 1, 2024, to May 31, 2025. This decision will enable increasing the load of Russian refinery operators, the Russian government said on its website Saturday.
“For the duration of the restrictions, Russia will not export waste and scrap of precious metals or metals clad with precious metals, other waste and scrap containing precious metals or precious metal compounds,” the statement said. “The export of waste and scrap of electrical and electronic products used to extract precious metals, which are important for the country’s domestic market, will also be suspended.” …
For the remainder of the report:
end
Peter St. Onge: How we could end the Federal Reserve
Submitted by admin on Sat, 2024-11-30 19:35 Section: Daily Dispatches
By Peter St. Onge
Money Metals Exchange, Eagle, Idaho
Friday, November 29, 2024
How can we End the Federal Reserve?
Without a government-licensed counterfeiter, would we be eating cat food?
There’s an entire industry dedicated to pumping out fear, uncertainty, and doubt of the post-apocalyptic dystopia that would descend upon the fair republic if we cancel the Fed’s counterfeiting license.
So what would actually happen?
First thing: It’s not science fiction. America didn’t have a central bank for its first 140 years. We had air conditioning, telephones, and electric cars before we had a Fed.
Moreover, there are countries today that still do not have a central bank — seven in all, eight if Argentina joins the party. …
… For the remainder of the commentary:
* end
4. OTHER GOLD COMMENTARIES//LIVE FROM THE VAULT/no 201 ANDREW MAGUIRE
LIVE FROM THE VAULT/ANDREW MAGUIRE KINESIS 201
end
5 B GLOBAL COMMODITY ISSUES/FOOD IN GENERAL//FREIGHT/COMMODITIES:
6 CRYPTOCURRENCY NEWS
ASIA TRADING MONDAY MORNING/SUNDAY NIGHT
SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37.53 PTS OR 1.13%
//Hang Seng CLOSED UP 126.68 PTS OR 0.65%
// Nikkei CLOSED UP 304.99 OR 0.80%//Australia’s all ordinaries CLOSED UP 0.07%///Chinese yuan (ONSHORE) CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2722 CHINESE YUAN OFFSHORE CLOSED DOWN TO 7.2845// Oil DOWN TO 68.89 dollars per barrel for WTI and BRENT DOWN AT 72.65 Stocks in Europe OPENED ALL GREEN
ONSHORE USA/ YUAN TRADING ABOVE LEVEL OF OFFSHORE YUAN/ONSHORE YUAN TRADING WEAKER AGAINST US DOLLAR/OFFSHORE YUAN WEAKER
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1.YOUR EARLY CURRENCY VALUES/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN AND EUROPEAN BOURSE MOVEMENTS/AND INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING.7:30 AM
ONSHORE YUAN: CLOSED DOWN AT 7.2722
OFFSHORE YUAN: DOWN TO 7.2845
SHANGHAI CLOSED CLOSED UP 37.53 PTS OR 1.13%
HANG SENG CLOSED CLOSED UP 126.68 PTS OR 0.65%
2. Nikkei closed UP 304.99 PTS OR 0.80%
3. Europe stocks SO FAR: ALL GREEN
USA dollar INDEX UP TO 106.22 EURO FALLS TO 1.0520 DOWN 52 BASIS PTS
3b Japan 10 YR bond yield: RISES TO. +1.063 Japan buying 100% of bond issuance)/Japanese YEN vs USA cross now at 150.04…… JAPANESE YEN NOW FALLING AS WE HAVE NOW REACHED THE RE EMERGING OF THE YEN CARRY TRADE AGAIN AFTER DISASTROUS POLICY ISSUED BY UEDA
3c Nikkei now ABOVE 17,000
3d USA/Yen rate now well ABOVE the important 120 barrier this morning
3e Gold DOWN /JAPANESE Yen DOWN CHINESE ONSHORE YUAN: DOWN OFFSHORE: DOWN
3f Japan is to buy INFINITE TRILLION YEN worth of BONDS. Japan’s GDP equals 5 trillion USA
Japan to buy 100% of all new Japanese debt and NOW they will have OVER 50% of all Japanese debt.
3g Oil DOWN for WTI and DOWN FOR BRENT this morning
3h European bond buying continues to push yields lower on all fronts in the EMU. German 10yr bund YIELD DOWN TO +2.0375 Italian 10 Yr bond yield DOWN to 3.232 //SPAIN 10 YR BOND YIELD DOWN TO 2.750
3i Greek 10 year bond yield DOWN TO 2.875
3j Gold at $2641.05 /Silver at: 30.77 1 am est) SILVER NEXT RESISTANCE LEVEL AT $50.00//AFTER 28.40
3k USA vs Russian rouble;// Russian rouble DOWN 1 AND 24/100 roubles/dollar; ROUBLE AT 105.99
3m oil into the 68 dollar handle for WTI and 72 handle for Brent/
3n Higher foreign deposits moving out of China// huge risk of outflows and a currency depreciation. This can spell financial disaster for the rest of the world/
JAPAN ON JAN 29.2016 CONTINUES NIRP. THIS MORNING RAISES AMOUNT OF BONDS THAT THEY WILL PURCHASE UP TO .5% ON THE 10 YR BOND///YEN TRADES TO 150.04 10 YEAR YIELD AFTER FIRST BREAKING .54% LAST YEAR NOW EXCEEDS THAT LEVEL TO 1.063% STILL ON CENTRAL BANK (JAPAN) INTERVENTION//YEN CARRY TRADE IS NOW UNWINDING.
30 SNB (Swiss National Bank) still intervening again in the markets driving down the FRANC. It is not working: USA/SF this 0.8856 as the Swiss Franc is still rising against most currencies. Euro vs SF: 0.9318 well above the floor set by the Swiss Finance Minister. Thomas Jordan, chief of the Swiss National Bank continues to purchase euros trying to lower value of the Swiss Franc.
USA 10 YR BOND YIELD: 4.204 UP 1 BASIS PTS…
USA 30 YR BOND YIELD: 4.380 UP 1 BASIS PTS/
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.196 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.72…
10 YR UK BOND YIELD: 4.2645 UP 1 PTS
10 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 3.130 UP 4 BASIS PTS
5 YR CANADA BOND YIELD: 2.988 UP 4 PTS.
2a New York OPENING REPORT
Futures Flat, Dollar Jumps As French Political Turmoil Returns
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 08:25 AM
Futures are lower to start the new month as the US Dollar pushed higher, partially in response to Trump’s mandate that BRICS drop non-USD FX ambitions but also because the crisis swirling around the French government deepened, dragging on the euro. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1%, but well off session lows, even as data showed Black Friday sales grew at a faster pace in the US this year; Nasdaq 100 futures are flat. The muted action comes after the S&P recorded its strongest month of the year, rising +5.7%, and is up 8 of the past 9 days. Pre-market, Mag7 are mixed, Semis are weaker, and Software is stronger; Financials are flat. Treasuries fall as traders prepare for US data that may influence the outlook for interest rates. Crude oil is higher, leading Energy to outperform the rest of the commodity complex which is seeing weakness in Ags and Precious. Today’s macro data focus is on ISM-Mfg and Construction Spending but the key this week is Friday’s NFP print to shape Dec Fed rate cut expectations.
In premarket trading, Stellantis fell 9% after CEO Carlos Tavares’s surprise departure leaves the maker of Jeep SUVs and Peugeot cars without clear leadership at a time of significant upheaval in the industry. Here are some other notable premarket movers:
- Cloudflare rises 4% after Morgan Stanley turns bullish on the stock, saying the software maker can “sustain, if not accelerate, topline growth over the next few years.”
- Core Scientific drops 4% following an announcement that the Bitcoin miner intends to offer $500 million in convertible notes via a private offering.
- Gap gains 4% after JPMorgan upgraded its rating on the apparel retailer, saying the foundation has been set to support a “consistent playbook of improved merchandising and marketing.”
- Toast slips 2% as Goldman Sachs stepped away from its buy rating, citing an elevated valuation following a recent rally.
- Upstart Holdings (UPST) drops 5% after JPMorgan downgraded the consumer finance firm, a move that’s based on valuation as shares appear to be “priced for perfection.”
“A Trump presidency is going to put upward pressure on the US dollar given some of the policy stance, the tariffs and others, that he’s been talking about,” said Jun Bei Liu, a portfolio manager at Tribeca Investment Partners Pty Ltd.
In Europe, the Stoxx 600 reversed an earlier decline to rise 0.3%. The yield premium on 10-year French debt over its German counterpart has widened ~4 bps versus Friday’s close. French stocks and government bonds have recovered off their worst levels but still underperform their regional peers after the far-right National Rally indicated in the strongest language yet that it could topple the government. The CAC 40 index was down 0.4% after falling more than 1% at the open, and the euro slumped. Among individual stocks, Stellantis sinks after announcing its CEO is departing. Top gainers include Portugal’s Galp after successfully drilling a Namibian well and Akzo Nobel following a broker upgrade. Here are the biggest movers Monday:
- Galp rises as much as 4.4% after the Portuguese oil company said after the close of trading on Friday that it successfully drilled the Mopane-1A appraisal well in block PEL83 in Namibia
- Akzo Nobel gains as much as 4.1% after JPMorgan lifted the firm and Air Liquide and Akzo Nobel to overweight and Johnson Matthey to neutral in a European chemicals outlook note
- Fresenius Medical Care shares gain as much as 3.3%, among the top performers in Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index on Monday morning after BofA upgraded its recommendation on the stock to neutral
- Rockwool gains as much as 2.1%, rallying from last week’s post-results slump, as Danske Bank upgrades the insulation firm to buy and sees an opportunity to “take advantage of the dip”
- Burberry gains as much as 1.8% as Deutsche Bank upgrades to buy from hold as analysts reshuffle their ratings of European luxury, sporting goods and apparel stocks into 2025
- Icade gains as much as 6.8% after the commercial property investor boosts its full-year cash flow forecast; it now sees group net current cash flow per share high end of EU3.78 to EU3.93
- Holcim shares gain as much as 1.1% after the firm announced plans to sell its Nigerian operations over the weekend, a move that is part of the company’s portfolio simplification strategy
- Stellantis shares fall as much as 8.9% in Milan to their lowest intraday value since July 2022 as CEO Carlos Tavares’s early exit leaves the automaker without clear leadership at a difficult moment
- Delivery Hero shares fall as much as 10% after the food delivery company said its Spanish arm Glovo will hire riders as employees rather than freelancers
- Shares in French banks and financial stocks fell on Monday as Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces the risk of seeing his government toppled by a no-confidence vote later this week
- K+S falls as much as 4% after Deutsche Bank downgrades the German agricultural chemicals firm to sell, citing risks around potash pricing as well as concerns about free cash flow
“There’s certainly a political instability and the securities, the French government bonds, are pricing that instability,” Ecaterina Bigos of AXA Investment Management told Bloomberg TV. “Political instability creates uncertainty, but what is more important is what is France going to do to bring that deficit down?”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks gained, supported by signs of economic stabilization in China while a rally in tech stocks mirrored similar gains in the US. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.9% to head for highest level since Nov. 11, with benchmark heavyweights like TSMC, Hitachi and Toyota Motor leading the advance. A gauge of technology stocks was the index’s best sector performer. Chinese shares in Hong Kong and the mainland rose as new data showed better-than-expected improvement in manufacturing activity, an indication that the economy may be further stabilizing after Beijing began introducing a stimulus package in September. Japan’s Topix gained, led by banks, after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said interest-rate hikes are “nearing” as inflation and economic trends develop in line with the central bank’s forecasts.
Modest strength “in HK and China markets is a mix of factors,” said Billy Leung, an investment strategist at Global X ETFs in Sydney. “Positive economic data, such as OK PMI figures, has provided support.” Tech sector gains are a follow-through from last week as US curbs on sales of chip technology to China seem “to be softer than anticipated,” he added.
In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.5% after US President-elect Trump threatened the BRICS nations with tariffs if they sought to create a new currency as an alternative to using the greenback; the EURUSD fell 0.6% after France’s far-right party threatened to topple the government amid a stand-off over the nation’s budget. French bonds and stocks lagged behind European peers.
In rates, treasuries are also weaker after gapping lower at the Asia open, erasing a portion of Friday’s late rally that was aided by month-end index rebalancing. Yields are 2bp-4bp higher across a flatter curve after ending November at monthly lows, with 5-, 10- and 30-year below 200-day average levels for first time since late October. US 10-year yields higher by 4 bps to 4.21%. With no coupon auctions slated until Dec. 10, focus is on the first major economic indicators for November — including ISM manufacturing Monday and employment report Friday — along with comments by Federal Reserve officials including Chair Powell Wednesday, as a Dec. 18 rate cut is only about half priced into swaps.
The treasury market ended November with a 0.78% gain after benchmark yields retreated from multimonth highs reached in the days following the Nov. 5 US presidential election; market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut in December rebounded to about 60% Friday.
In commodities, oil prices advanced, with WTI rising 0.8% to $68.60 a barrel. Spot gold fell $6 to $2,637/oz. Bitcoin falls 3% to near $95,000.
Looking at the US economic data calendar we get November final S&P Global US manufacturing PMI (9:45am) and October construction spending and November ISM manufacturing (10am). Fed speaker slate includes Governor Waller (3:15pm) and New York Fed President Williams (4:30pm)
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures down 0.2% to 6,040.75
- STOXX Europe 600 little changed at 509.87
- MXAP up 0.9% to 185.02
- MXAPJ up 0.6% to 580.18
- Nikkei up 0.8% to 38,513.02
- Topix up 1.3% to 2,714.72
- Hang Seng Index up 0.7% to 19,550.29
- Shanghai Composite up 1.1% to 3,363.98
- Sensex up 0.6% to 80,267.89
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.1% to 8,447.85
- Kospi little changed at 2,454.48
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.06%
- Euro down 0.6% to $1.0515
- Brent Futures up 1.0% to $72.55/bbl
- Gold spot down 0.2% to $2,636.55
- US Dollar Index up 0.51% to 106.28
Top Overnight News
- US President-elect Trump demanded that BRICS nations commit to not creating a new currency to challenge the US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs. Trump also stated that he had a very productive meeting with Canadian PM Trudeau and they discussed many important topics that will require both countries to work together to address such as fentanyl and the drug crisis, while they also spoke about many other important topics like energy, trade and the Arctic. In the European morning, South Africa said the BRICS have no plans to create a new currency: BBG
- Joe Biden issued a pardon for his corrupt crackhead son Hunter Biden.
- China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November as new orders, including those from abroad, led to a solid rise in production, pushing manufacturers’ optimism degree to an eight-month high, a private-sector survey showed on Monday. China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for Nov comes in ahead of expectations at 51.5 (vs. the Street 50.6 and up from 50.3 in Oct). Reuters
- China bonds rallied Monday with the 10-year yield dropping below 2% to hit a multi-decade low, amid expectations that Beijing could expand its stimulus measures to shore up the economy. Yields on China’s 10-year government bond fell to 1.9636% on Monday, its lowest level in 22 years. CNBC
- China warned the US to tread cautiously on the issue of Taiwan after President Lai Ching-te landed in Hawaii on his first stopover on American soil. China also vowed strong measures to counter any US weapons sales to Taiwan. BBG
- ECB’s Lane says monetary policy should focus on upcoming risks rather than backward-looking economic data. FT
- Exporter’s from China, Canada, and Mexico are seeking to front-load shipments to the US after Donal Trump pledged to impose new levies on goods from the 3 countries on his first day in office. At a supply chain expo in Beijing last week, logistics company representatives said the number of customers asking about bringing forward shipments increased following Trump’s threat to impose an extra 10 cent tariff on Chinese goods. FT
- Canada will step up border enforcement in a “visible and muscular way,” a top official said, as it tries to prevent US tariffs. New border resources may include more drones, helicopters and staff. BBG
- The US unveiled new restrictions on China’s access to vital components for chips and AI, escalating a campaign to contain Beijing’s technological ambitions. It also blacklisted 140 more Chinese entities. BBG
- BlackRock is nearing a deal to buy HPS, people familiar said. The deal may come this week and value the private credit manager at $12 billion or more. BBG
- Consumer spending on Black Friday rose 3.4% Y/Y overall, with healthy online sales (+14.6%) and muted in-store expenditures (+0.7%). Reuters
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks began the new trading month mostly higher as participants reflected on Chinese PMI data in which the official headline Manufacturing and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs both topped forecasts, while markets await a deluge of releases this week. ASX 200 eked mild gains with outperformance in tech making up for the slack in defensives and with data providing some encouragement. Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action but ultimately gained with the help of a weaker currency and encouraging Chinese data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with outperformance in the mainland following the latest Chinese PMI data including the official releases over the weekend which showed headline Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts but Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI surpassed the most optimistic analyst expectations and printed its highest since June.
Top Asian News
- US will add roughly a dozen Chinese toolmakers plus their subsidiaries and affiliates to the Commerce Department’s restricted trade list, while it will expand its powers to curb exports of certain chipmaking equipment made in places including Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Israel, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said on Friday that the timing of the next interest rate hike was “approaching” as the economy was moving in line with the central bank’s forecasts and noted that yen weakness will be a risk to the outlook if the currency falls further after inflation starts rising, while he added the BoJ is to focus on wages and other areas when deciding whether to hike interest rates, according to Nikkei.
- Japan reportedly wants to lift GPIF real investment return target to 1.9% from 1.7%, according to Bloomberg.
- PBoC Governor says China will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and direction next year; will strengthen counter cyclical adjustments
European bourses began the session entirely in the red, but quickly after the cash open most indices caught a bid to display a mostly positive picture in Europe. The CAC 40 (-0.4%) is the underperformer given the political uncertainty surrounding the region. European sectors opened with a strong negative bias, but sentiment has since improved to show a mixed picture in Europe. Basic Resources takes the top spot, despite losses in base metals prices; sentiment in the sector might be buoyed by better-than-expected Chinese NBS & Caixin Manufacturing PMIs. Autos is by far the clear underperformer, dragged down by losses in Stellantis after its CEO Tavares resigned. US Equity Futures are very modestly on the backfoot, giving back some of the gains seen in the prior session which saw the S&P notch its best month of the year.
Top European News
- ECB’s Lane said while inflation had fallen close to the ECB’s target of 2%, there is a little bit of distance to go and while data dependence falls down in priority, the new challenge would be assessing the incoming risks on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Lane said the focus on the latest economic data will ebb and monetary policy decisions at some point in the future need “to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-looking”. Furthermore, he said services inflation needs to come down further and at some point, there will be a transition from addressing the disinflation challenge to the new challenge of keeping inflation at 2%, according to FT.
- ECB’s Stournaras says the ECB will probably continue cutting rates in December.
- ECB’s Kazaks says the ECB is likely to discuss a bigger December cut, but the uncertainty is high
- French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen said on Sunday that the government effectively “put an end to discussions” on the country’s 2025 budget, which increases the likelihood of a vote of no confidence in PM Barnier, according to France 24
Fixed Income
- OATs are firmer but have pulled back from a 127.04 session peak, in-fitting with action across benchmarks broadly in recent trade. Focus on the region is on French politics and particularly how PM Barnier will outline social security budget details to the National Assembly today as part of the budget, a budget which would almost certainly not pass due to it containing RN red lines. OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has peaked at 86bps thus far today, elevated but shy of the 90bps high from last week.
- Bunds are firmer but off session highs of 135.40. Been on the front foot throughout the morning, given the above French political concern on the narrative that it could potentially spill over into a broader fiscal/economic crisis with implications for the bloc as a whole. This morning’s PMIs were generally revised lower (though the pan-EZ figure was unrevised); metrics which had little impact on price action. Thereafter, ECB’s Kazaks said the ECB is likely to discuss a bigger December cut, but the uncertainty is high; comments which sparked upside in Bunds.
- Focus for USTs ahead, aside from France, is firmly on ISM Manufacturing PMI ahead of the services release later in the week and then most pertinently the NFP report. Currently trading at the lower end of a 110-31+ to 111-06+ band.
- Gilts were initially firmer, taking the lead from EGBs and with further modest upside coming after a downward revision to its Final Manufacturing PMI. However, Gilts have faded from the 96.25 peak which printed early doors with specifics light, aside from data, and the focus very much on the EZ/France.
Commodities
- WTI and Brent are in the green, just off session highs of USD 68.81/bbl and USD 72.67/bbl respectively. Upside which comes after strong Chinese PMIs overnight and ahead of this week’s delayed OPEC+ gathering, currently set for December 5th.
- Gold was pressured despite uncertainty around France and geopolitical tensions with the USD firmer and stripping the yellow metal of any haven-allure it may have otherwise received. XAU peaked at USD 2656/oz peak, shy of last Wednesday’s USD 2658/oz high.
- Base metals are softer, dented by the USD strength and despite better-than-expected Chinese PMIs. 3M LME Copper continues to slip below the USD 9k handle down to a USD 8910/z trough.
- Kazakhstan says oil supplies via Druzhba pipeline to Germany were fully on schedule in November.
Geopolitics: Middle East
- US envoy Hochstein says there are Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement, according to Kann’s Stein.
- Syrian opposition leader Al-Bahri says “we are ready to negotiate, starting tomorrow”.
- Russian Kremlin says the continue to support Syrian President Al-Assad, are analysing the situation.
- Israeli Foreign Minister says “The presence of Hezbollah terrorists south of Litani – a fundamental violation of the agreement. They must move north!”, according to Kann’s Stein
- Israeli PM Netanyahu told the mother of a hostage that conditions are ready to complete a deal in Gaza after the end of the war in the north, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Sky News Arabia. It was also reported that Netanyahu decided to hold a security discussion on Sunday evening with the aim of reaching a deal in Gaza, while the security service warned the government that the army’s continued dismantling of Hamas could lose control of the hostages, threatening their return due to the chaos.
- Israeli Foreign Minister said there are signs of progress on a deal with Hamas in light of flexibility that arose after the settlement in Lebanon, while the Israel Broadcasting Corporation reported that Hamas still insists that any agreement must ensure an end to the war, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel’s military said sirens sounded in a number of areas in central Israel following a launch from Yemen.
- UNRWA chief said aid delivery through the Israeli-controlled Kerem-Shalom crossing was paused due to an unsafe route and looting by armed gangs inside Gaza.
- Syrian opposition forces have taken control of much of the country’s second-largest city Aleppo, while rebel forces said all of Idlib province is under rebel control.
- Syrian and Russian air forces stepped up strikes on the positions of Syrian rebels and their supply lines with scores reportedly killed and injured, according to TASS citing the Syrian army.
- US-led international coalition forces launched two airstrikes against the positions of Iran-aligned forces in the suburbs of Syria’s Mayadeen, according to Syrian television cited by Iran International.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned aggression against its embassy in Aleppo and said all consulate members are safe, while the Iranian and Russian Foreign Ministers voiced support for Syria in confronting terrorist groups. Furthermore, the Iranian Foreign Minister said rebel attacks in Syria are part of an Israeli-US plan to destabilise the region.
- Turkey’s Foreign Minister spoke with US Secretary of State Blinken and discussed Syria, while the Turkish official also discussed Syria with his Iraqi counterpart.
Geopolitics: Ukraine
- Ukrainian President Zelensky met with EU Council President Costa in Kyiv, while he said a NATO invitation is necessary for survival and that Ukraine will never recognise Russian occupation of its territory.
- White House National Security Adviser said the idea of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine is not under consideration.
Geopolitics: Other
- US State Department said it suspended the strategic partnership with Georgia and regrets Georgia’s decision to suspend EU accession. It was separately reported that Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev said an attempted revolution is happening in Georgia and that Georgia is moving along the Ukrainian path into the abyss.
- China’s government said the Foreign Ministry lodged stern representations with the US over Taiwan President Lai’s Hawaii stopover and they are firmly opposed to Taiwan leaders transiting the US for any reason. China’s Foreign Ministry also lodged stern representations with the US over weapons sales to Taiwan and said it will take resolute countermeasures regarding the arms sale.
- Philippines President Marcos said the reported presence of a Russian submarine in the South China Sea is very concerning and any intrusion into the Philippine maritime zone is very worrisome.
US Event Calendar
- 09:45: Nov. S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 49.0, prior 48.8
- 10:00: Oct. Construction Spending MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.1%
- 10:00: Nov. ISM Employment, prior 44.4
- 10:00: Nov. ISM Prices Paid, est. 56.0, prior 54.8
- 10:00: Nov. ISM New Orders, prior 47.1
- 10:00: Nov. ISM Manufacturing, est. 47.6, prior 46.5
Central Bank speakers
- 15:15: Fed’s Waller Gives Keynote at Fed Framework Conference
- 16:30: Fed’s Williams Gives Keynote Remarks
DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Given it’s the start of the month, we’ve just released our usual monthly performance review for November. For the month as a whole, US markets saw a strong out-performance, with the S&P 500 up to a new record and posting its strongest monthly performance of 2024. European sovereigns also did well as investors priced in faster rate cuts from the ECB. But there were a few weaker spots, with French assets underperforming given the country’s budget situation, whilst the Euro posted its largest decline against the US Dollar in 18 months as investors contemplated the prospect of further tariffs. Moreover, the dollar’s strength and weakness elsewhere meant that virtually all non-USD denominated risk assets were negative in the month in USD terms.
Staying with performance themes, on Saturday it was two years since ChatGPT was launched and I don’t think it’s an understatement to say the +183% gain for the Mag-7 since then, and the +48% increase for the S&P 500, might have played a significant part in the US avoiding a recession when the pressures in that direction were most acute. Financial conditions and the wealth effect have a big impact on the US economy. Who knows what would have happened if ChatGPT hadn’t been launched then and the technology didn’t emerge for a couple of years. For the record Nvidia is up a cool 717% since then.
Over the weekend Mr Trump has been active on social media with a warning to the BRICS countries that any attempt to replace the Dollar will see them face 100% tariffs. As ever with Mr Trump it seems to be a shot across the bows but likely wouldn’t ultimately be great for the US economy if implemented. As we mentioned last week a 25% tariff on Mexico and Canada could lift US inflation by around one percent in 2025 so this felt like an opening salvo to negotiations and indeed Trump spoke to Sheinbaum last Wednesday and had dinner with Trudeau on Friday. The former meeting discussed flows of migrants and the latter the Fentanyl coming in through the Canadian border. The mood music after both contacts seemed positive so the dance of tariff threats and then negotiations has already started. Expect a lot more of this over the months ahead. With regards to the BRICS comments, it seems to further point to Dollar strength being a theme of the new administration as against Trump 1.0 where initially they tried to talk the Dollar down. The Dollar index is up +0.5% this morning in Asia.
Another interesting weekend development was Zelenskiy being open to a cease-fire that ceded control of land it has lost to Russia in return for NATO security guarantees over the remainder of the country. Although such a guarantee would be difficult to negotiate it does show that as Trump nears the office, the direction of travel will likely move towards peace talks even if the war escalates in the background as both sides try to strengthen their hands ahead of the inauguration.
As we start a new month (with Liverpool 9 (nine) points ahead at the top of the Premier League), it is set to be a busier week after the lull of Thanksgiving, with a lot of focus on various important US employment data culminating in payrolls on Friday, a number that could influence the fairly tight December 18th Fed decision. The US ISM indices (today and Wednesday), some global PMIs, and the University of Michigan’s consumer survey (Friday) are also due with inflation expectations within the survey fascinating after last month saw the joint highest (3.2%) for the 5-10yr expectations series since 2011. From central banks, speakers include Fed Chair Powell and ECB President Lagarde (both Wednesday).
In terms of the US employment data, DB’s forecast for Friday’s payrolls is +215k (consensus +200k) with private payrolls at +185k (consensus +200k). Last month the data printed at +12k and -46k, respectively, with weather and strikes impacting the numbers. For private payrolls it was the first negative print since December 2020 during the winter Covid wave. The US econ team’s forecast assumes 75k of positive payback split equally between weather and returning strikers. DB and consensus expect the unemployment rate to hold at 4.1%. Prior to this we have JOLTS (tomorrow), ADP (Wednesday) and the employment components of today manufacturing ISM and Wednesday’s services equivalent. JOLTS is always one month behind payrolls (e.g. October) so it will be influenced by the weather disruptions we had that month.
Over in Europe, a number of economic activity indicators are due for the main economies including factory orders (Thursday), industrial production and the trade balance for Germany (both Friday). Industrial production (Thursday) and the trade balance (Friday) are also due for France. Otherwise there will also be November CPI prints in Switzerland (Tuesday) and Sweden (Thursday).
In Asia, Japan’s wages and consumption activity are out on Friday. In Australia, Q3 GDP will be released on Wednesday (our economists preview it here). Briefly rounding off with geopolitics, South Africa took over the G20 presidency from Italy yesterday and the OPEC and non-OPEC ministerial meeting (online) will be held on Thursday as supply remains in focus.
Also watch France today as the National Assembly starts to review social security within the budget bill. If Barnier uses article 49.3 to push through the bill without a vote, it is feasible a no-confidence motion could come as early as today if the premier doesn’t take into account the demands of the far-left and far-right. Le Pen in particular has been very hawkish over the weekend, suggesting that her extra budget demands need to be met today.
Asian equity markets have started the final month of 2024 on a positive note, following another record high on Wall Street on Friday with China’s surprisingly strong PMI data also supporting risk sentiment. As I check my screens, Chinese stocks are among the best performers with the Shanghai Composite (+1.03%) leading gains while the CSI (+0.70%) and the Hang Seng (+0.23%) are also trading in positive territory. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (+0.72%) and the KOSPI (+0.42%) are also trading higher. S&P 500 (-0.17%) and NASDAQ 100 (-0.16%) futures are moving lower though and 10yr UST yields are +4.6bps higher after a strong rally last week.
Coming back to China, manufacturing activity continued to expand among smaller manufacturers in November after the Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI came in at 51.5, hitting a 5-month high and beating Bloomberg’s median estimate of 50.6 and picking up from the prior month’s 50.3. This private gauge comes after the official PMI data, released on Saturday, also expanded to 50.3 in November from 50.1 the previous month. Meanwhile, Chinese 10yr sovereign bond yields fell below 2% per cent during early trading, its lowest level in more than two decades on rising speculation that the PBOC would ease monetary policy further. China’s long-term sovereign bond yields (30yr bonds) have been declining all year and on Friday went below Japanese yields for the first time.
Looking back at last week now, and the S&P 500 climbed to a new record by the end of the holiday shortened week (a +1.06% gain over the week, +0.56% Friday). Outside the US, the story was a lot less rosy as President-elect Trump announced he was planning to impose tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. Europe’s STOXX 600 managed to eke out a +0.35% gain (+0.58% Friday), but other markets were softer with the Nikkei falling -0.20% (-0.37% Friday) and the MSCI EM index down -0.80% (-0.10% Friday).
For sovereign bonds though, the picture was a lot more positive, with Treasuries rallying following Scott Bessent’s nomination as the next US Treasury Secretary. By Friday, that meant the 10yr Treasury yield was down -23.2bps over the week (-9.5bps Friday). Yields on 10yr bunds also fell back as the German inflation reading came in beneath expectations, falling back -15.5bps last week (-3.9bps Friday) to 2.09%, which is their biggest weekly decline since the market turmoil at the start of August.
Otherwise last week, there was a clear underperformance among French assets given the budget situation and speculation about the government’s survival. That meant the CAC 40 lost ground for a 6th consecutive week, falling by -0.27% (+0.78% Friday). Moreover, the Franco-German 10yr spread widened by +0.4bps over the week to 80.6bps, albeit off the mid-week highs when it approached 88bps.
Finally, oil prices fell back, in part because of the agreement of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. By the close on Friday, Brent crude was down -2.97% over the week (-0.46% Friday) to $72.94/bbl. And those losses were echoed among other commodities, with gold down -2.69% (+0.20% Friday) to $2,643/oz.
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2B) European report.
USD bid amid further tariff threats ahead of ISM Manufacturing, OATs in focus as the French gov’t awaits Le Pen’s decision – Newsquawk US Market Open
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 05:52 AM
- European bourses began the session in negative territory, but sentiment quickly improved to show a mostly positive picture in Europe; US futures modestly lower.
- Dollar is propped up by further Trump tariff threats, EUR dragged by political uncertainty and tests 1.05 to the downside.
- OATs in focus as the French gov’t awaits Le Pen’s decision; USTs are slightly lower ahead of US ISM Manufacturing PMIs.
- WTI & Brent are on a firmer footing following better-than-expected Chinese PMIs, XAU/base metals pressured by the firmer Dollar.
- Looking ahead, US S&P manufacturing PMI, ISM Manuf. PMI & Construction Spending, Speakers including Fed’s Williams, Waller.
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EUROPEAN TRADE
EQUITIES
- European bourses began the session entirely in the red, but quickly after the cash open most indices caught a bid to display a mostly positive picture in Europe. The CAC 40 (-0.4%) is the underperformer given the political uncertainty surrounding the region.
- European sectors opened with a strong negative bias, but sentiment has since improved to show a mixed picture in Europe. Basic Resources takes the top spot, despite losses in base metals prices; sentiment in the sector might be buoyed by better-than-expected Chinese NBS & Caixin Manufacturing PMIs. Autos is by far the clear underperformer, dragged down by losses in Stellantis after its CEO Tavares resigned.
- US Equity Futures are very modestly on the backfoot, giving back some of the gains seen in the prior session which saw the S&P notch its best month of the year.
- Click for the sessions European pre-market equity newsflow
- Click for the additional news
- Click for a detailed summary
FX
- USD firmer vs. all major peers following US President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat over the weekend in which he demanded that BRICS nations commit to not creating a new currency to challenge the US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs. The weaker EUR is also helping. DXY has eclipsed the 27th November peak @ 106.41 ahead of US ISM Manufacturing and speak from Fed’s Waller and Williams.
- EUR near the bottom of the G10 leaderboard as political disruptions in France act as a drag on the wide currency with the far-right Bardella noting that a no-confidence motion will likely be passed unless there is a “last minute miracle”. As it stands, EUR/USD has delved as low as 1.0497. Elsewhere, ECB’s Lane noted over the weekend there is a little bit of distance to go before the ECB’s inflation target is reached.
- JPY is pressured vs. the USD with USD/JPY back above the 150 mark after. Fresh macro drivers for Japan were lacking over the weekend. Focus this week will be on the expected rate hike.
- GBP is on the backfoot vs. the USD alongside a lack of UK-specific drivers. This could remain the case with this week’s calendar lacking in tier 1 UK data highlights. Cable is currently holding just above the 1.27 mark and sits within Friday’s 1.2672-1.2750 range.
- Antipodeans are both softer vs. the broadly firmer USD but to a slightly lesser degree than most peers with some support being offered by Chinese PMI metrics from over the weekend. AUD/USD is currently lingering around the 0.65 mark after delving as low as 0.6489 overnight.
- South Africa says BRICS have no plans to create a new currency, via Bloomberg. A remark which sparked immediate downside in USD/ZAR
- India lowers Q2 GDP growth rate due to some “obvious reasons” which are likely to dissipate in the next 2 quarters; taking steps to facilitate achievement of FY25 GDP growth estimates of 6.5-7%.
- Russian Kremlin says USD is losing its appeal as a reserve currency for many nations and the trend is gathering pace.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1865 vs exp. 7.2384 (prev. 7.1877).
- Click for a detailed summary
- Click for NY OpEx Details
FIXED INCOME
- OATs are firmer but have pulled back from a 127.04 session peak, in-fitting with action across benchmarks broadly in recent trade. Focus on the region is on French politics and particularly how PM Barnier will outline social security budget details to the National Assembly today as part of the budget, a budget which would almost certainly not pass due to it containing RN red lines. OAT-Bund 10yr yield spread has peaked at 86bps thus far today, elevated but shy of the 90bps high from last week.
- Bunds are firmer but off session highs of 135.40. Been on the front foot throughout the morning, given the above French political concern on the narrative that it could potentially spill over into a broader fiscal/economic crisis with implications for the bloc as a whole. This morning’s PMIs were generally revised lower (though the pan-EZ figure was unrevised); metrics which had little impact on price action. Thereafter, ECB’s Kazaks said the ECB is likely to discuss a bigger December cut, but the uncertainty is high; comments which sparked upside in Bunds.
- Focus for USTs ahead, aside from France, is firmly on ISM Manufacturing PMI ahead of the services release later in the week and then most pertinently the NFP report. Currently trading at the lower end of a 110-31+ to 111-06+ band.
- Gilts were initially firmer, taking the lead from EGBs and with further modest upside coming after a downward revision to its Final Manufacturing PMI. However, Gilts have faded from the 96.25 peak which printed early doors with specifics light, aside from data, and the focus very much on the EZ/France.
- Click for a detailed summary
COMMODITIES
- WTI and Brent are in the green, just off session highs of USD 68.81/bbl and USD 72.67/bbl respectively. Upside which comes after strong Chinese PMIs overnight and ahead of this week’s delayed OPEC+ gathering, currently set for December 5th.
- Gold was pressured despite uncertainty around France and geopolitical tensions with the USD firmer and stripping the yellow metal of any haven-allure it may have otherwise received. XAU peaked at USD 2656/oz peak, shy of last Wednesday’s USD 2658/oz high.
- Base metals are softer, dented by the USD strength and despite better-than-expected Chinese PMIs. 3M LME Copper continues to slip below the USD 9k handle down to a USD 8910/z trough.
- Kazakhstan says oil supplies via Druzhba pipeline to Germany were fully on schedule in November.
- Click for a detailed summary
NOTABLE DATA RECAP
- UK S&P Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.0 vs. Exp. 48.6 (Prev. 48.6)
- EU Unemployment Rate (Oct) 6.3% vs. Exp. 6.3% (Prev. 6.3%)
- EU HCOB Manufacturing Final PMI (Nov) 45.2 vs. Exp. 45.2 (Prev. 45.2)
- Spanish HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 53.1 vs. Exp. 53.5 (Prev. 54.5)
- Italian HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 44.5 (exp. 45.7, prev. 46.9)
- French HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 43.1 vs. Exp. 43.2 (Prev. 43.2)
- German HCOB Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 43.0 vs. Exp. 43.2 (Prev. 43.2)
- Swiss Manufacturing PMI (Nov) 48.5 vs. Exp. 49.4 (Prev. 49.9)
- Swiss Retail Sales YY (Oct) 1.4% (Prev. 2.2%, Rev. 0.6%)
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Nov) 41 vs Exp. 40 (Prev. 44)
- UK Nationwide House Price YY (Nov) 3.7% vs. Exp. 2.4% (Prev. 2.4%); MM (Nov) 1.2% vs. Exp. 0.2% (Prev. 0.1%)
- Italian GDP Final QQ (Q3) 0.0% (Prev. 0.0%); GDP Final YY (Q3) 0.4% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.4%)
NOTABLE EUROPEAN HEADLINES
- ECB’s Lane said while inflation had fallen close to the ECB’s target of 2%, there is a little bit of distance to go and while data dependence falls down in priority, the new challenge would be assessing the incoming risks on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Lane said the focus on the latest economic data will ebb and monetary policy decisions at some point in the future need “to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-looking”. Furthermore, he said services inflation needs to come down further and at some point, there will be a transition from addressing the disinflation challenge to the new challenge of keeping inflation at 2%, according to FT.
- ECB’s Stournaras says the ECB will probably continue cutting rates in December.
- ECB’s Kazaks says the ECB is likely to discuss a bigger December cut, but the uncertainty is high
- French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen said on Sunday that the government effectively “put an end to discussions” on the country’s 2025 budget, which increases the likelihood of a vote of no confidence in PM Barnier, according to France 24. Click for the French budget deadline primer.
- S&P affirmed France at AA-; Outlook Stable, while Moody’s affirmed Hungary at Baa2; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable.
NOTABLE US HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump demanded that BRICS nations commit to not creating a new currency to challenge the US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs. Trump also stated that he had a very productive meeting with Canadian PM Trudeau and they discussed many important topics that will require both countries to work together to address such as fentanyl and the drug crisis, while they also spoke about many other important topics like energy, trade and the Arctic. In the European morning, South Africa said the BRICS have no plans to create a new currency, via Bloomberg.
- US President Biden issued a pardon for his son Hunter Biden.
- US tightens China curbs on AI memory and semiconductor tools, according to Bloomberg. The Department of Commerce slapped additional curbs on the sale of high-bandwidth memory and chipmaking gear, including that produced by US firms at foreign facilities. US official cited said the new sanctions and entity list will be detailed in full on Monday.
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- US envoy Hochstein says there are Israeli violations of the ceasefire agreement, according to Kann’s Stein.
- Syrian opposition leader Al-Bahri says “we are ready to negotiate, starting tomorrow”.
- Russian Kremlin says the continue to support Syrian President Al-Assad, are analysing the situation.
- Israeli Foreign Minister says “The presence of Hezbollah terrorists south of Litani – a fundamental violation of the agreement. They must move north!”, according to Kann’s Stein
- Israeli PM Netanyahu told the mother of a hostage that conditions are ready to complete a deal in Gaza after the end of the war in the north, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Sky News Arabia. It was also reported that Netanyahu decided to hold a security discussion on Sunday evening with the aim of reaching a deal in Gaza, while the security service warned the government that the army’s continued dismantling of Hamas could lose control of the hostages, threatening their return due to the chaos.
- Israeli Foreign Minister said there are signs of progress on a deal with Hamas in light of flexibility that arose after the settlement in Lebanon, while the Israel Broadcasting Corporation reported that Hamas still insists that any agreement must ensure an end to the war, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel’s military said sirens sounded in a number of areas in central Israel following a launch from Yemen.
- UNRWA chief said aid delivery through the Israeli-controlled Kerem-Shalom crossing was paused due to an unsafe route and looting by armed gangs inside Gaza.
- Syrian opposition forces have taken control of much of the country’s second-largest city Aleppo, while rebel forces said all of Idlib province is under rebel control.
- Syrian and Russian air forces stepped up strikes on the positions of Syrian rebels and their supply lines with scores reportedly killed and injured, according to TASS citing the Syrian army.
- US-led international coalition forces launched two airstrikes against the positions of Iran-aligned forces in the suburbs of Syria’s Mayadeen, according to Syrian television cited by Iran International.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned aggression against its embassy in Aleppo and said all consulate members are safe, while the Iranian and Russian Foreign Ministers voiced support for Syria in confronting terrorist groups. Furthermore, the Iranian Foreign Minister said rebel attacks in Syria are part of an Israeli-US plan to destabilise the region.
- Turkey’s Foreign Minister spoke with US Secretary of State Blinken and discussed Syria, while the Turkish official also discussed Syria with his Iraqi counterpart.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky met with EU Council President Costa in Kyiv, while he said a NATO invitation is necessary for survival and that Ukraine will never recognise Russian occupation of its territory.
- White House National Security Adviser said the idea of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine is not under consideration.
OTHER
- US State Department said it suspended the strategic partnership with Georgia and regrets Georgia’s decision to suspend EU accession. It was separately reported that Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev said an attempted revolution is happening in Georgia and that Georgia is moving along the Ukrainian path into the abyss.
- China’s government said the Foreign Ministry lodged stern representations with the US over Taiwan President Lai’s Hawaii stopover and they are firmly opposed to Taiwan leaders transiting the US for any reason. China’s Foreign Ministry also lodged stern representations with the US over weapons sales to Taiwan and said it will take resolute countermeasures regarding the arms sale.
- Philippines President Marcos said the reported presence of a Russian submarine in the South China Sea is very concerning and any intrusion into the Philippine maritime zone is very worrisome.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin pulls back from weekend highs to current levels of around USD 95.3k, and towards today’s trough at USD 94.9k.
APAC TRADE
- APAC stocks began the new trading month mostly higher as participants reflected on Chinese PMI data in which the official headline Manufacturing and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs both topped forecasts, while markets await a deluge of releases this week.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains with outperformance in tech making up for the slack in defensives and with data providing some encouragement.
- Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action but ultimately gained with the help of a weaker currency and encouraging Chinese data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with outperformance in the mainland following the latest Chinese PMI data including the official releases over the weekend which showed headline Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts but Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI surpassed the most optimistic analyst expectations and printed its highest since June.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US will add roughly a dozen Chinese toolmakers plus their subsidiaries and affiliates to the Commerce Department’s restricted trade list, while it will expand its powers to curb exports of certain chipmaking equipment made in places including Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Israel, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said on Friday that the timing of the next interest rate hike was “approaching” as the economy was moving in line with the central bank’s forecasts and noted that yen weakness will be a risk to the outlook if the currency falls further after inflation starts rising, while he added the BoJ is to focus on wages and other areas when deciding whether to hike interest rates, according to Nikkei.
- Japan reportedly wants to lift GPIF real investment return target to 1.9% from 1.7%, according to Bloomberg.
- PBoC Governor says China will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance and direction next year; will strengthen counter cyclical adjustments
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.1)
- Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.2)
- Chinese Composite PMI 50.8 (Prev. 50.8)
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 51.5 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.3)
- Australian Building Approvals (Oct) 4.2% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Oct) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.1%)
2C ASIAN REPORT
APAC stocks begin the month firmer following strong Chinese PMIs – Newsquawk Europe Market Open
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 01:10 AM
- APAC stocks were mostly higher; Chinese official Manufacturing PMI and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs both topped forecasts
- US President-elect Trump demanded that BRICS nations commit to not creating a new currency to challenge the US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs
- European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.0% after the cash market closed higher by 1.0% on Friday
- USD is firmer vs. all major peers post-Trump tariff threat, JPY is the laggard across G10 FX
- Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Unemployment, US S&P manufacturing PMI, ISM Manuf. PMI & Construction Spending, Speakers including Fed’s Williams, Waller & ECB’s Lagarde
SNAPSHOT
US TRADE
EQUITIES
- US stocks closed in the green on Friday on what was a shortened trading session due to Thanksgiving on Thursday and with US newsflow light. Nonetheless, the sector breakdown saw Industrials, Tech and Consumer Discretionary outperform, while Utilities, Real Estate and Communication stocks lagged with headwinds in the latter amid Alphabet’s (GOOG) underperformance following the Competition Bureau suing Google for alleged anti-competitive practices in online advertising.
- SPX +0.56% AT 6,032, NDX +0.90% AT 20,930, DJI +0.42% AT 44,911, RUT +0.35% AT 2,435.
- Click here for a detailed summary.
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- US President-elect Trump demanded that BRICS nations commit to not creating a new currency to challenge the US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs. Trump also stated that he had a very productive meeting with Canadian PM Trudeau and they discussed many important topics that will require both countries to work together to address such as fentanyl and the drug crisis, while they also spoke about many other important topics like energy, trade and the Arctic.
- US President Biden issued a pardon for his son Hunter Biden.
APAC TRADE
EQUITIES
- APAC stocks began the new trading month mostly higher as participants reflected on Chinese PMI data in which the official headline Manufacturing and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs both topped forecasts, while markets await a deluge of releases this week.
- ASX 200 eked mild gains with outperformance in tech making up for the slack in defensives and with data providing some encouragement.
- Nikkei 225 saw two-way price action but ultimately gained with the help of a weaker currency and encouraging Chinese data.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with outperformance in the mainland following the latest Chinese PMI data including the official releases over the weekend which showed headline Manufacturing PMI topped forecasts but Non-Manufacturing PMI disappointed, while Caixin Manufacturing PMI surpassed the most optimistic analyst expectations and printed its highest since June.
- US equity futures (ES -0.2%) were marginally lower amid a stronger dollar and firmer yields, with participants bracing for the key data releases later this week culminating in the latest NFP report on Friday.
- European equity futures are indicative of a negative cash open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future -1.0% after the cash market closed higher by 1.0% on Friday.
FX
- DXY strengthened following US President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat over the weekend in which he demanded that BRICS nations commit to not creating a new currency to challenge the US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs. Furthermore, Trump also said he had a productive meeting with Canadian PM Trudeau, while looking ahead, there is a slew of data releases this week including the latest NFP jobs data on Friday.
- EUR/USD was pressured amid the firmer dollar and political uncertainty in France where French PM Barnier’s government faces a potential collapse after the far-right National Rally’s Marine Le Pen gave Barnier until today to answer her demands and amend his government’s budget plans, while Le Pen updated on Sunday that the government effectively “put an end to discussions” on the country’s 2025 budget.
- GBP/USD slipped back beneath the 1.2700 handle owing to the stronger buck and amid a lack of UK-specific catalysts.
- USD/JPY recouped last Friday’s losses and returned to the 150.00 handle amid marginally firmer US yields and the positive risk tone. Antipodeans were subdued amid headwinds from the advances in USD albeit with losses in AUD/USD stemmed after a deluge of data releases including better-than-expected Australian Building Approval and Retail Sales.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1865 vs exp. 7.2384 (prev. 7.1877).
FIXED INCOME
- 10yr UST futures trickled lower in a pullback from the 111.00 level and with yields slightly higher following Trump’s latest tariff threat.
- Bund futures took a breather and remained afloat after recently climbing to its highest level in around 2 months.
- 10yr JGB futures remained subdued after Friday’s after-hours retreat with money markets leaning towards the BoJ resuming hiking rates at this month’s meeting.
COMMODITIES
- Crude futures were marginally higher and regained some slight composure after Friday’s whipsawing but with gains capped amid a lack of oil-specific newsflow and as markets look ahead to the OPEC+ meeting later this week.
- Polish pipeline operator PERN said pumping on a damaged branch of the Druzhba pipeline was immediately stopped and the cause of the incident is not known, while it noted that supply is fully ensured through the second branch of the pipeline.
- Spot gold retreated alongside early dollar strength following US President-elect Trump’s BRICS tariff threat.
- Copper futures were pressured and have failed to take advantage of the better-than-expected Chinese NBS & Caixin Manufacturing PMIs.
CRYPTO
- Bitcoin was mildly lower with initial gains reversed on a pullback from overnight resistance at the USD 99,000 level.
NOTABLE ASIA-PAC HEADLINES
- US will add roughly a dozen Chinese toolmakers plus their subsidiaries and affiliates to the Commerce Department’s restricted trade list, while it will expand its powers to curb exports of certain chipmaking equipment made in places including Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, and Israel, according to sources cited by Reuters.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said on Friday that the timing of the next interest rate hike was “approaching” as the economy was moving in line with the central bank’s forecasts and noted that yen weakness will be a risk to the outlook if the currency falls further after inflation starts rising, while he added the BoJ is to focus on wages and other areas when deciding whether to hike interest rates, according to Nikkei.
- Japan reportedly wants to lift GPIF real investment return target to 1.9% from 1.7%, according to Bloomberg.
DATA RECAP
- Chinese Manufacturing PMI 50.3 vs Exp. 50.2 (Prev. 50.1)
- Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs Exp. 50.4 (Prev. 50.2)
- Chinese Composite PMI 50.8 (Prev. 50.8)
- Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI Final (Nov) 51.5 vs. Exp. 50.5 (Prev. 50.3)
- Australian Building Approvals (Oct) 4.2% vs. Exp. 1.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
- Australian Retail Sales MM Final (Oct) 0.6% vs. Exp. 0.4% (Prev. 0.1%)
GEOPOLITICS
MIDDLE EAST
- Israeli PM Netanyahu told the mother of a hostage that conditions are ready to complete a deal in Gaza after the end of the war in the north, according to Israel’s Channel 12 cited by Sky News Arabia. It was also reported that Netanyahu decided to hold a security discussion on Sunday evening with the aim of reaching a deal in Gaza, while the security service warned the government that the army’s continued dismantling of Hamas could lose control of the hostages, threatening their return due to the chaos.
- Israeli Foreign Minister said there are signs of progress on a deal with Hamas in light of flexibility that arose after the settlement in Lebanon, while the Israel Broadcasting Corporation reported that Hamas still insists that any agreement must ensure an end to the war, according to Sky News Arabia.
- Israel’s military said sirens sounded in a number of areas in central Israel following a launch from Yemen.
- UNRWA chief said aid delivery through the Israeli-controlled Kerem-Shalom crossing was paused due to an unsafe route and looting by armed gangs inside Gaza.
- Syrian opposition forces have taken control of much of the country’s second-largest city Aleppo, while rebel forces said all of Idlib province is under rebel control.
- Syrian and Russian air forces stepped up strikes on the positions of Syrian rebels and their supply lines with scores reportedly killed and injured, according to TASS citing the Syrian army.
- US-led international coalition forces launched two airstrikes against the positions of Iran-aligned forces in the suburbs of Syria’s Mayadeen, according to Syrian television cited by Iran International.
- Iran’s Foreign Ministry condemned aggression against its embassy in Aleppo and said all consulate members are safe, while the Iranian and Russian Foreign Ministers voiced support for Syria in confronting terrorist groups. Furthermore, the Iranian Foreign Minister said rebel attacks in Syria are part of an Israeli-US plan to destabilise the region.
- Turkey’s Foreign Minister spoke with US Secretary of State Blinken and discussed Syria, while the Turkish official also discussed Syria with his Iraqi counterpart.
RUSSIA-UKRAINE
- Ukrainian President Zelensky met with EU Council President Costa in Kyiv, while he said a NATO invitation is necessary for survival and that Ukraine will never recognise Russian occupation of its territory.
- White House National Security Adviser said the idea of returning nuclear weapons to Ukraine is not under consideration.
OTHER
- US State Department said it suspended the strategic partnership with Georgia and regrets Georgia’s decision to suspend EU accession. It was separately reported that Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev said an attempted revolution is happening in Georgia and that Georgia is moving along the Ukrainian path into the abyss.
- China’s government said the Foreign Ministry lodged stern representations with the US over Taiwan President Lai’s Hawaii stopover and they are firmly opposed to Taiwan leaders transiting the US for any reason. China’s Foreign Ministry also lodged stern representations with the US over weapons sales to Taiwan and said it will take resolute countermeasures regarding the arms sale.
- Philippines President Marcos said the reported presence of a Russian submarine in the South China Sea is very concerning and any intrusion into the Philippine maritime zone is very worrisome.
EU/UK
NOTABLE HEADLINES
- ECB’s Lane said while inflation had fallen close to the ECB’s target of 2%, there is a little bit of distance to go and while data dependence falls down in priority, the new challenge would be assessing the incoming risks on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Lane said the focus on the latest economic data will ebb and monetary policy decisions at some point in the future need “to be driven by upcoming risks rather than being backward-looking”. Furthermore, he said services inflation needs to come down further and at some point, there will be a transition from addressing the disinflation challenge to the new challenge of keeping inflation at 2%, according to FT.
- French far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen said on Sunday that the government effectively “put an end to discussions” on the country’s 2025 budget, which increases the likelihood of a vote of no confidence in PM Barnier, according to France 24.
- S&P affirmed France at AA-; Outlook Stable, while Moody’s affirmed Hungary at Baa2; Outlook revised to Negative from Stable.
DATA RECAP
- UK Lloyds Business Barometer (Nov) 41 vs Exp. 40 (Prev. 44)
3B NORTH KOREA/SOUTH KOREA
END
3C JAPAN
end
3D. CHINA/TAIWAN/INDO PACIFIC
China/Iran
Trump is having quite an effect on countries: now China will shun Iranian oil due to sanction fears
(zerohedge)
China To Shun Iranian Oil On Mounting Trump Sanction Fears
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 05:45 AM
After years of abusing Iranian sanctions and flooding China’s economy with cheap Iranian oil, China’s larger independent refiners are set to shun Iranian oil “imminently” because of their exposure to the US banking system, said Energy Aspects, which expects sanctions to tighten under Trump.
These plants only started buying Iranian crude this year after receiving guidance from the US State Department that sanctions wouldn’t be enforced by the Biden administration, according to a note from the industry consultant, which didn’t name the refiners. If confirmed that would be the latest foreign policy scandal by the captured and corrupt Biden admin, which has made a mockery of sanctions enforcement, especially if the alternative is sharply higher oil and gas prices.
In any case, with the imminent arrival of Trump, the Chinese refining sector will be under significant pressure to consolidate and the government might be “willing to sacrifice the teapots to score some easy points against Trump by clamping down Iranian imports.”
Limiting access would raise the cost of feedstock and slash margins for teapots and help Beijing to trim capacity.
Activity by independent refiners has picked up in the spot market, with a number of plants securing barrels from the Middle East in recent trades, on top of WAF grades purchased two weeks ago. These were all unsold, discounted barrels from the previous cycles.
With Iranian oil set to become extremely scarce, China’s independent refiners have snapped up barrels from across the Middle East and Africa as offers of Iranian oil remain scarcer and more expensive than usual, in part due to broadening US sanctions.
In a separate Bloomberg report, we learn that a large Chinese processor bought about 10 million barrels of grades from Abu Dhabi and Qatar, according to traders who asked not to be identified. The cargoes are for loading in December and January, and helped to clear an overhang of unsold crude from previous trading cycles, they added.
China’s independent refiners, known as teapots, typically favor cheaper Iranian crude and take around 90% of the OPEC producer’s exports, but a slowdown in the amount of oil available to purchase has forced a change in buying habits. The incoming Trump administration has also led to some large processors backing away from Tehran’s crude due to their exposure to US banking, according to Energy Aspects.
Traders and shippers put the scarcity of Iranian supply down to the broadening of US sanctions in October to include more dark fleet tankers plying the Iran-China trade. That move has crimped the number of vessels available for ship-to-ship transfers, tightening supply and driving prices higher (see “Satellite Analysis Shows Enormity Of Secretive Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude To China“).
Flows of Iranian oil to China have dipped more than 10% this month compared with October, according to Kpler. Meanwhile, the volume of West African crude is at the highest on a monthly basis in at least two years, partly driven by the spike in Iranian oil prices, Sentosa Shipbrokers wrote in a report.
Beijing’s move to issue more import quotas to teapots has also spurred buying activity, traders said. Refiners were asked to submit requests to purchase more crude a few months ago and were provided verbal approvals this week, but some started buying ahead of the confirmation, they added.
Refiners in Shandong province collectively sought an allocation of about 3.8 million tons, or 28.5 million barrels, which will be valid until the end of the year, according to traders.
The initial build-up of Middle Eastern oil was spurred by bumper trading activity in contracts linked to the Dubai market in recent months. That led to the delivery of cargoes that ultimately went unconsumed and had to find buyers at a later date, traders said.
President-elect Donald Trump has already rattled the market with the threat of tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, and investors are closely watching to see how his administration will approach Iran. Sanctions on the OPEC producer are expected to tighten, according to Energy Aspects.
Key concerns include the possibility dark fleet tankers will be sanctioned en-route to their destination, a move that would spook the ports waiting to receive the vessels and lead to cargoes being stranded at sea.
We previously discussed how ship-to-ship transfers off Malaysia are also set to face more scrutiny, a process used to mask the origin of Iranian cargoes by re-labeling them as Malaysian oil.
4.EUROPEAN AFFAIRS//UK /SCANDINAVIAN AFFAIRS
France
The huge spending by French is now beginning to haunt them
(zerohedge)
Barring “Last Minute Miracle”, French Govt Faces Imminent No-Confidence Vote
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 08:39 AM
France’s benchmark yield spreads have come off the day’s wides after the latest headlines show the government may have made a further compromise in its bid to save the budget.
France’s government offered a final-hour concession to Marine Le Pen on the 2025 budget, seeking to avoid being ousted from power in a no-confidence vote.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier committed to not cutting reimbursements for medicines, caving to yet another key demand from the far-right after crisis talks with Le Pen earlier Monday.
The concession is a last-ditch attempt by the French premier to keep the budget bill on track and remain in office. Without a majority in parliament, Barnier was set to resort to using Article 49.3, which allows for the adoption of the social security bill without a vote, but opens the door to no-confidence motions.
Le Pen’s National Rally party, the largest in the lower house, said earlier Monday it would ensure the government falls, barring a “miracle” compromise on their demands. Party officials did not immediately respond to requests for comment after Barnier offered the concession.
However, at 83bps (spread to Bunds), French fragmentation risk remains as high as it has been since the EU financial crisis in 2013 ahead of the critical vote…
Source: Bloomberg
How Did We Get Here…?
Before the end of today’s French parliamentary session, Barnier’s government must submit the social security budget details to the National Assembly. As it stands, Barnier’s center-right gov’t cannot pass this unless National Rally (RN) provides support or abstains. Currently. Barnier’s coalition has the most seats followed by New Popular Front (NFP) and then RN.
Barnier has already made clear he plans to pass the motion via Article 49.3, which allows the gov’t to pass measures without a formal parliamentary vote but at the cost of opening the door to an immediate no-confidence motion.
In recent days Barnier made concessions to RN’s Le Pen around electricity taxes and certain other issues in order to get her support and avoid losing the no-confidence motion. However, Le Pen has made clear that RN has multiple red lines which need to be removed from the budget.
On Sunday, Le Pen announced that Barnier had ended the discussion’ while more recently RN’s Bardella said “a no-confidence motion will likely be passed unless there is a last minute miracle”.
Ratings
S&P affirmed France at AA- on Friday, with a Stable outlook, recognizing Barnier’s austerity plan to reduce the deficit. However, the agency warned that political fragmentation and the risk of diluted reforms could threaten long-term fiscal stability, and while it is optimistic about 2025’s fiscal targets, it cautioned that the future trajectory beyond 2025 remains uncertain.
What Happens Next?
On Monday, 2nd December Barnier’s gov’t will announce they are passing the social security budget via Article 49.3. After which, opposition parties will be entitled to table a no-confidence motion.
The left-wing alliance NFP is expected to table such a motion. As a reminder. NFP secured the most seats in June’s election but President Macron decided not to select the PM from that group and instead tried to form a centrist coalition with Barnier at its helm. As such, they have committed to tabling a no-confidence motion which will pass if, and only if. RN supports it.
If tabled, the motion will likely occur on Wednesday, 4th December. After Article 49.3 is used opposition parties have up to 48-hours to table a no-confidence motion which then needs to be voted on within three days. However, there is no reason for NFP not to table the motion immediately, hence Wednesday is the most likely day. For what it’s worth. RN also appears to have a no-confidence motion ready to go.
Following this, the next step goes to President Macron who will attempt to appoint a new PM. get support around them and then pass the required fiscal legislation by year end to have a workable budget for 2025 and appease the European Commission. As a reminder, the Commission placed France under excessive deficit procedures due to its deficit being well in excess of the 3% debt/GDP ratio the commission allows.
In the event that Barnier survives the confidence motion then he has to return before end-December with the management component of the budget.
A bill which would also need Article 49.3 to pass and thus will open the door to another confidence motion.
If Barnier loses the motion then Macron will need to appoint someone to serve as the new PM.
In the short-term, Barnier would likely continue as a caretaker during which there are two backup options for the government: 1) usage of special legislation to rollover the 2024 budget for a brief period of time (this would not solve the pressing budget problems); 2) usage of a gov’t order to pass the budget without vote, while this would pass the budget there would be no gov’t to deliver it (Barnier couldn’t as caretaker), thus Macron would need to appoint a new PM.
A government which would undoubtedly face even greater pressure from NFP and RN.
Le Pen
It is somewhat unclear as to what exactly Le Pen wishes to gain from the gov’t collapsing.
As parliament cannot be dissolved until June 2025 at the earliest and while the gov’t collapsing will put pressure on Macron to resign, he has made clear he will not do so.
There had been speculation that Le Pen’s stance was a negotiating tactic in order to obtain some of her red lines. If this is the case, then it is going to the wire.
Finally, the impact of this is not inconsequential…
It has historically cost the French government around 50bps more to finance itself for 10 years than it has the German government. France is now the euro-area’s biggest issuer of debt (ahead of Italy) and the country ran a huge budget deficit in 2024. The political turmoil created since Macron called a snap parliamentary election has seen that spread widen to around 85 bps.
Running the wider spread through our in-house model of the euro-area economies, and assuming it remains elevated through 2025, suggests a 0.5% drag on GDP will emerge by the end of next year.
Higher borrowing costs and slower growth would be a bad combination for public finances. The danger is that spreads widen further, exacerbating these impacts and creating ever bigger fiscal risks.
end
FRANCE/LATE MONDAY MORNING
“No Way Out” – French Credit Risk Spikes After Le Pen Confirms Backing Of ‘No Confidence’ Vote
Le Pen’s opposition party National Rally confirmed it will back a no-confidence motion brought by the Left’s Manot..
END
ITALY
Evan the beautiful city of Milan is no longer safe
(zerohedge)
“I Won’t Claim That Milan Is A Safe City” Admits Leftist Mayor After Damning Stats Show Surge In Migrant Crime
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024 – 08:10 AM
Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,
Italian Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi has announced the deployment of 600 additional police officers to Milan, citing concerns over integration challenges and rising crime rates, particularly in areas with significant immigrant populations.
The announcement follows recent unrest in the Corvetto district, where a 19-year-old Egyptian resident, Ramy Elgaml, died in a road accident after a police chase, sparking mass protests by the considerable immigrant population.
During a meeting on security with Milan’s prefect Claudio Sgaraglia and Police Chief Vittorio Pisani, Piantedosi confirmed that the reinforcements, planned before the Corvetto unrest, will enhance territorial control and improve public safety.
He offered damning statistics on the disproportionate involvement immigrants have in committing crime, noting that 65 percent of all offenses in the city are committed by foreign nationals despite representing 20 percent of all residents.
“These figures highlight integration challenges that must be addressed to reduce marginalization and its consequences,” Piantedosi stated. He denied comparisons to the recent Parisian suburban riots, calling them “very exaggerated,” but acknowledged that the Corvetto unrest signals issues requiring attention.
The Italian minister criticized the reliance on issuing residence permits as a solution to integration issues, pointing out the need for more comprehensive measures. He highlighted efforts already underway, noting over 40 high-impact operations and 162 arrests in Corvetto this year, but accepted that much more needed to be done.
“The second-most important city in Italy after Rome deserves all the attention it can get,” he added.
Milan’s left-wing mayor Beppe Sala echoed the need for investments in public housing and community centers to foster integration and accepted that the Italian city can no longer be considered a safe place to live.
“I won’t claim Milan is a safe city, but it is making an effort to address challenges faced by all international cities,” he said.
Sala claimed that migrant crime was a result of shortcomings in creating spaces for young immigrants to engage positively within their communities, linking the lack of such centers to increased alienation in the suburbs.
With over 60,000 public housing units out of Milan’s 800,000 apartments, Sala described the distribution as “disproportionate,” emphasizing the importance of equitable urban planning.
Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, whose League party first made its name in the northern Italian city and the surrounding area, remarked on the meeting in a post on X.
“Minister Piantedosi’s data are crystal clear. Yet for the left, it is a non-problem, they seek justifications to the point of falsifying reality,” he wrote.
“Woe to anyone who criticizes the dogma of indiscriminate reception at all costs, woe to anyone who criticizes environments in which foreign crime thrives in our cities, woe to anyone who wants to harshly apply the law to intervene in an increasingly unsustainable situation,” he quipped.
END
UK
ISRAELI ARAB Joseph Haddad kicked out of Oxford Union debate and escorted out by 8 security guards.
(JerusalemPost)
‘Unbridled Jew-hatred’: Yoseph Haddad kicked out of ‘anti-Israel’ Oxford Union debate
“I faced insults, boos, and threats during the confrontation, but there was one thing I wasn’t willing to tolerate—the disgrace of our hostages,” Haddad said about what occurred.
By KESHET NEEVDECEMBER 1, 2024 03:29
Arab-Israeli journalist and activist for Israel Yoseph Haddad was kicked out of an Oxford Union debate on Thursday, footage on social media showed.
The debate, which attracted pro-Palestine protesters, concluded in a vote that determined “Israel was an apartheid state responsible for genocide.” This was passed by 278 votes to 59, according to a Friday Jewish Chronicle report.
Haddad posted on X/Twitter that he was kicked out because he “was not ready to accept the humiliation of the Israeli hostages.”
Footage posted on X showed Haddad being escorted out of the event as people in the audience shouted in his direction.
When explaining in a post on X what happened at the event, Haddad began by writing that “Oxford was occupied by supporters of terrorism. 90% of the participants are distinctly anti-Israeli.”
He then continued to explain that during the “biased discussion,” extreme statements were made that supported terrorism and the October 7 Hamas attacks.
“When one audience member cried over Gaza residents in an exaggerated and insincere manner, I pulled out a photo of the Muslim hostages and asked if she was crying for them, too. One participant took the photo, threw it on the floor, and others stepped on it,” Haddad continued.
“I faced insults, boos, and threats during the confrontation, but there was one thing I wasn’t willing to tolerate—the disgrace of our hostages,” Haddad wrote and then added that afterward, he demanded the audience members be removed.
“I wasn’t willing to let the discussion continue, even when the anti-Israel moderator, who was practically part of the confrontation, warned me. In the end, he decided to have me removed from the hall,” Haddad explained.
He also added that before he was kicked out of the event hall, he put a T-shirt over his suit that featured former Hezbollah head Hassan Nasrallah and had a large X marked over his face with the text, “Your hero-terrorist is dead! We did that.”
Escorted by eight security guards to ‘stay alive’
In an additional post that Haddad shared on X after the event, he posted a video of him in which he explained how he had to be escorted by eight security guards “in order to stay alive.”
“Everyone is talking about freedom of speech, freedom of speech. That’s fine, but it’s freedom of speech only for one side. When it comes to the Israeli side, the freedom of speech stops, and that’s why we need the security to be with me all the time.”
As he waited for security to arrive, the video continued, “Waiting for evacuation from Oxford. Not from Gaza, not from Lebanon, not from a terrorist that has war. From Oxford. Because Oxford has been occupied by anti-Israel terrorist support from the Middle East.”
When the security guards came to escort Haddad back to London, where he was staying, the video concluded with him saying, “We need eight security guards in order to take us back to safety. Oh UK, you are in trouble.”
Additional attendees of the debate
Mossab Hassan Yousef, the son of a Hamas co-founder and an advocate for Israel, also attended the event and made a Saturday X post writing that “Oxford Union is controlled by terrorist supporters.”
“Last night, I asked the participants and pro ‘Palestine’ opponents during a debate at Oxford Union if they would have reported Hamas plans to authorities to prevent the October 7 massacre. 75% of the participants voted they would have chosen not to report Hamas plans to the authorities,” he wrote.
Additionally, journalist Emily Schrader, who attended the debate, explained in an X post that she had never seen “such appalling mob-incited, unbridled Jew-hatred being endorsed and emboldened by one of the most respected institutions in academia.”
“We should not need seven security guards with us to be proud of who we are. We should not have to scream over bloodthirsty lunatics to have our voices heard on a forum like the Oxford Union,” she wrote.
GERMANY
END
FRANCE/
UK
5 RUSSIAN AND MIDDLE EASTERN AFFAIRS
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH
Hezbollah Believes It Lost Up To 4000 Fighters Killed, Far Surpassing 2006 War
Friday, Nov 29, 2024 – 06:35 PM
Reuters has cited Hezbollah and Lebanese sources to say that Hezbollah believes the number of its fighters killed by Israel over the last year of fighting could be as high as 4,000.
A fragile ceasefire has held for the last three days, and the Shia group backed by Iran has been burying its dead this week. Ground fighting has been most intense in the last two months before the ceasefire was agreed to.
“The sources’ estimate far outstrips tallies published by the group, but skews close to Israel’s announced figure and could provide a window into the extent to which Israel was able to damage the powerful Iranian proxy, which saw its leadership largely decapitated and its rocket arsenal significantly depleted, according to authorities,” Reuters says.
According to more, based on a source cited by Reuters, “the Iran-backed group may have lost up to 4,000 people — well over 10 times the number killed in its monthlong 2006 war with Israel.”
Tens of thousands of Lebanese have been moving back into their southern villages and towns, some of which are in rubble and ruins. Bodies are still being searched for under the rubble.
The Lebanese army is also moving into southern districts in coordination with UN peacekeeping authorities, as part of the truce deal to monitor for potential ceasefire violations.
“The concerned military units are moving from several areas to the South Litani Sector, where they will be stationed in the locations designated for them,” the Lebanese military said in its first statement following the truce going into effect.
Meanwhile, amid a war-weary and devastated Lebanese population, Hezbollah might be more unpopular then ever. The economy was already in tatters even long before Oct.7, 2023.
“Hezbollah’s claim of victory holds little weight outside its core constituency,” Imad Salamey, a Middle Eastern politics professor and analyst at the Lebanese American University, has explained.
“The war was not widely popular among the Lebanese people, many of whom are more focused on the devastating economic losses inflicted during the conflict,” he added.
Despite some positive indicators that the ceasefire will hold, including the cessation of daily rocket fire onto northern Israel, the conflict might not be over
END
ISRAEL// HEZBOLLAH/
France claims Israel violated ceasefire, warns of collapse of deal – report. France should shut their mouths.
France has further warned of the collapse of the agreement in such instances.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFF, RAQUEL GUERTZENSTEIN FROHLICHDECEMBER 1, 2024 14:24
France has claimed that Israel has breached the ceasefire with Lebanon, with some 52 violations being counted in the past day alone, according to a Sunday Ynet report.
France has further warned of the collapse of the agreement due to such instances.
“The Lebanese are fully committed to acting to maintain the ceasefire and prevent Hezbollah from moving south again, but they must be given time to prove themselves,” Ynet cited a French source as saying.
The French reportedly also acknowledged that attempts were being made by Hezbollah to return weapons to southern Lebanon, the Israeli news outlet added.
Lebanese Armed Forces Commander Gen. Joseph Aoun and Lebanese interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati, both of whom France have maintained close communication with, reaffirmed their commitment to preventing Hezbollah returning to the south and to preserving the ceasefire agreement, French officials said.
“Every violation will be met with significant enforcement, and that is what is happening on the ground,” an Israeli source told Ynet in response.
Responding to the claims, Israeli officials stated that the enforcement mechanism of the agreement between Israel and Lebanon “will start gaining momentum” on Monday and Tuesday, and until that time, Israel will continue to aggressively enforce violations across the border.
Also on Sunday, Israeli state broadcaster KAN cited a French source saying that it had warned both parties against actions that could constitute a breach of the ceasefire.
Last week, the military noted that the ceasefire was largely being adhered to, with the IDF reacting against any violations of it.
The IDF also noted it had targeted a Hezbollah medium-range rocket crew, which seemed to be getting to fire at Israel from southern Lebanon.
The military further stated that an additional breach of the ceasefire had been reported as several suspects had arrived in villages to which entry was prohibited.
Israel’s ceasefire agreement with Lebanon
The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect at 4:00 a.m. on Wednesday of last week.
The agreement includes a 60-day period during which Israeli forces will withdraw from southern Lebanon, where the Lebanese military would be deployed, with Hezbollah moving north of the Litani River.
Maya Gur Arieh, Sam Halpern, Yonah Jeremy Bob, and Reuters contributed to this report.
(Reuters)
END
ISRAEL/HEZBOLLAH/
Sunday: armed Hezbollah operative were killed near a church in Southern Lebanon.
The ceasefire agreement is not worth the paper it is printed on!
IDF says paratroopers killed armed Hezbollah operatives near a church in southern Lebanon
Last night, the military says soldiers of the Paratroopers Brigade spotted a group of armed Hezbollah operatives close to a church in southern Lebanon, a site previously known to have been used by the terror group.
The paratroopers opened fire at the gunmen, killing them, the IDF says.
“The terrorists who were eliminated were active in [Hezbollah’s] ground defense, anti-tank and artillery arrays in the area, and took part in the fighting while using the church,” the military says in a statement.
After the operatives were killed, the IDF says soldiers scanned the church today and located a tunnel shaft that was used to store weapons.
The IDF is still deployed to southern Lebanon, and it has until late January to withdraw under the ceasefire deal.
END
ISRAEL/HOUTHIS
IDF: Ballistic missile launched by Houthis from Yemen intercepted
Incoming projectile sets off sirens across central Israel; four lightly hurt as they scrambled to reach safe rooms; Iran-backed group takes responsibility
By Emanuel Fabian Follow
and AgenciesToday, 10:45 amUpdated at 2:08 pm
Yemenis brandish rifles and chant slogans against Israel during a rally in the Houthi-controlled capital Sanaa, November 29, 2024. (Mohammed HUWAIS / AFP)
A ballistic missile launched at Israel from Yemen was successfully intercepted by air defenses outside of Israel’s borders, the Israel Defense Forces said Sunday.
Sirens were triggered across central Israel at around 6:30 a.m. Shrapnel from the interception reportedly fell within Israel. There were no reports of major damage.
Four people were lightly injured as they ran for shelter during sirens, the Magen David Adom emergency service said.
A fifth individual was treated for acute anxiety, MDA said.
The surface-to-surface missile was shot down with the Arrow defense system, which is designed to take out ballistic missiles while they are still outside the atmosphere. According to an Israeli Air Force source, the missile was shot down at a “high altitude.”
The Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen later took responsibility for launching the missile.
In a statement, the group claimed to have targeted a “vital target” in central Israel. The Houthis also vowed to continue attacks on Israel until “the aggression on the Gaza Strip stops.”
Last week, Houthi leader Abdul Malik Al-Houthi said the rebels will keep up their attacks regardless of the truce that halted 14 months of conflict initiated by Hezbollah in Lebanon. The terror group says it is acting in support of fellow Iran-backed proxy Hamas in the Gaza Strip, against which Israel is waging war; the Houthis say they are attacking Israel for the same reason.
Houthi supporters burn American and Israeli flags during a rally in Sanaa, Yemen, Nov. 8, 2024. (AP Photo/Osamah Abdulrahman)
“The operations from the Yemeni front to support the Palestinian people with missiles and drones towards the Israeli enemy are continuing,” Al-Houthi said on the rebels’ Al-Masirah TV channel.
Houthi rebels, part of Iran’s “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States, have fired over 220 ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones at Israel since the outbreak of the Gaza war. That conflict began on October 7 last year when Hamas led a massive cross-border attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and saw 251 taken hostage. The war in Gaza is still ongoing.
Israel has twice bombed Houthi targets in retaliation for its ballistic missile and drone attacks, including one that killed a man in Tel Aviv.
The Houthis have also waged a harassment campaign against shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden during the Gaza war, severely disrupting the vital trade route.
“I hope everyone in the army and among the people is aware of our responsibility, and with God’s help will do more… against the Israeli enemy,” Al-Houthi said.
“We at the Yemeni front are doing our utmost to support the Palestinian people,” he added.
This photo released by the European Union’s Operation Aspides naval force shows the Greek-flagged oil tanker Sounion burning in the Red Sea following a series of attacks by Yemen’s Houthi rebels on Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. (European Union’s Operation Aspides via AP)
They have targeted more than 80 merchant vessels with missiles and drones since the war in Gaza started last October, including seizing one vessel and sinking two in a campaign that also killed four sailors. Other missiles and drones have either been intercepted by a US-led coalition in the Red Sea or failed to reach their targets, which have included Western military vessels.
The rebels maintain that they target ships linked to Israel, the US, or the United Kingdom to force an end to Israel’s campaign against the Hamas terror group in Gaza. However, many of the ships attacked have little or no connection to the conflict, including some bound for Iran.
END
Israel kills terror cell head, Hamas reportedly ready to agree to gradual IDF withdrawal
Netanyahu says Israel firm on ceasefire deal with Lebanon • IDF warns residents of southern Lebanon against moving south
IDF kills terrorist Wael Lahluh, who murdered Israeli Yonatan Deutsch
The terror attack that Lahluh initiated, which killed Deutsch, occurred back in August.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFDECEMBER 1, 2024 18:43
The IDF and Shin Bet killed terrorist Wael Lahluh, who murdered Israeli citizen Yonatan Deutsch, Israel’s military announced on Sunday evening.
Lahluh, aged 31, was a resident of the West Bank’s Qabatiya, the IDF said. It added that he was the head of a terrorist cell at the time he was killed in the Israeli strike.
The terror attack that Lahluh initiated, which killed Deutsch, occurred back in August. Deutsch, 23, from Beit She’an, was shot in the area of the Mehola Junction in the Jordan Valley in the West Bank. Another Israeli civilian was also wounded during the attack.
The IDF said that after Lahluh carried out the terror attack, he continued to operate in Jenin, recruiting terrorists and planning to carry out additional terror attacks in the near future.
The IDF eliminated Lahluh when an Israel Air Force aircraft struck and destroyed a terrorist cell that it said carried out several shooting attacks against communities in the Gilboa.
Additional raid
The IDF also added that after the strike, Israel’s military conducted a targeted raid in the area and discovered three weapons on the bodies of terrorists.
Additional weapon parts, military vests, and explosive materials were also located.
“Security forces will continue to operate to thwart every threat against the citizens of the State of Israel,” Israel’s military emphasized.
END
HAMAS
Trump Warns Hamas Of “Hell To Pay” If Hostages Aren’t Freed Before Inauguration
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 02:25 PM
It’s no secret that President-elect Donald Trump is firmly in support of Israel, despite that after a year of Israeli war in Gaza the civilian death toll is in the multiple tens of thousands. Trump has stacked key national security positions with pro-Israel hawks.
This is why it comes as no surprise that he’s already talking tough, threatening escalation if Hamas and Palestinian militants in Gaza don’t immediately free the remaining Israeli hostages. “Everybody is talking about the hostages who are being held so violently, inhumanely, and against the will of the entire World, in the Middle East – But it’s all talk, and no action!” Trump began a post on his Truth Social.
He is warning that there will be “hell to pay” if Hamas doesn’t release the captives. “Please let this TRUTH serve to represent that if the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025, the date that I proudly assume Office as President of the United States, there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,” Trump continued in the statement.
He then warned in the stern statement [emphasis ZH]:
Those responsible will be hit harder than anybody has been hit in the long and storied History of the United States of America. RELEASE THE HOSTAGES NOW!
Given broad swathes of Gaza have already been pulverized into dust, it’s hard to see how the Strip could be hit any harder, also given US-supplied bunker buster bombs have been used against dense urban areas.
A total of 97 hostages remain unaccounted for, though many have been feared dead after over a year of fighting in the Strip. Israel has said that 251 Israelis and foreigners were taken on October 7, 2023.
Recent analysis in The Washington Post tallied that 117 hostages have been freed or rescued, with the bulk of this figure having come as a result of the November 2023 short-lived truce deal.
Israel’s military and intelligence believes that a total of 63 hostages remain alive. They have been in captivity for over 420 days, amid worsening conditions. Israel says that 71 have been confirmed killed, but without revealing the precise circumstances of their deaths.
“The hostage whose death was most recently confirmed by Israel is Idan Shtivi,” Washington Post writes. “There are 34 hostages reported killed whose bodies have not been recovered and remain in Gaza.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will surely take this new statement as a mandate from Trump to keep fighting. Efforts at achieving a new truce completely fell apart within the last weeks, and Israel appears bent on pursuing a military solution.
Given the situation is now essentially a ‘fight to the death’ scenario, Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad are unlikely to care much about Trump’s threat. The terror groups likely see the remnant hostages as the only remaining leverage they have left.
ISRAEL/USA HOUTHIS
US Warships “Successfully” Combat Missile Attack On Merchant Vessels In Critical Maritime Chokepoint
by Tyler Durden
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 01:05 PM
The US Central Command (CENTCOM) released a statement late Sunday night detailing how two US Navy destroyers intercepted missiles and drones targeting three US merchant vessels in the Gulf of Aden near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints.
According to CENTCOM, two Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers, USS Stockdale (DDG 106) and USS O’Kane (DDG 77), successfully neutralized ran-backed Houthi-launched missiles and kamikaze drones. These included three anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBMs), three one-way attack uncrewed aerial systems (OWA UAS), and one anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM), aimed at a flotilla of three US-owned, operated, and flagged merchant vessels transiting the Gulf of Aden over the weekend.
“The destroyers were escorting three U.S.-owned, operated, flagged merchant vessels, and the reckless attacks resulted in no injuries and no damage to any vessels, civilian or US Naval,” CENTCOM said.
On Sunday morning, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center (UKMTO), which monitors Middle Eastern waterways, reported an “attack” on a vessel approximately 80 nautical miles south of Aden, Yemen.
There is no word if the vessel attack UKMTO reported on Sunday morning was related to the missile and drone attack on US merchants and warships.
However, X accounts focused on open-source intelligence showed several fixed-wing US or allied military assets operating in the skies near the incident area.
The Washington Institute’s Noam Raydan reported in October that Houthi rebels launched 80 attacks on commercial ships in the critical maritime chokepoint in the southern Red Sea, sinking two ships and killing four sailors. This has since sparked a global supply chain crisis, pressuring container rates higher.
In recent days, the Syrian proxy war, which never truly ended, flared up again, as the world is on fire under a weak Biden-Harris regime.
ISRAEL///HEZBOLLAH/MONDAY MORNING
so ends the ceasefire
IDF confirms Hezbollah launched 2 mortars at Mount Dov area near Israel-Lebanon border amid ceasefire; none hurt
By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 5:2
The IDF confirms that Hezbollah launched two mortars at the Mount Dov area on the border between Israel and Lebanon a short while ago.
Both projectiles hit open areas, causing no injuries, the army says.
It marks the first fire from Lebanon since a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect last week.
The IDF has carried out several strikes in Lebanon during the ceasefire against what Israel says were Hezbollah violations of the truce.
Several rockets reportedly fired from Lebanon at IDF positions near border
Several rockets were reportedly launched a short while ago from Lebanon at Israeli military positions on the border in the Mount Dov area.
There are no immediate reports of injuries.
The IDF has not yet commented.
It would potentially mark the first rocket fire from Lebanon since a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah took effect last week.
END
ISRAEL.HEZBOLLAH/
Netanyahu says Hezbollah mortar fire on northern Israel constitutes truce violation, vows ‘forceful’ response
By Lazar Berman
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks in a video statement about the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal, November 26, 2024. (Screenshot/GPO)
After a Hezbollah mortar attack on an IDF position in the Mount Dov area, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vows a firm response.
“Hezbollah’s firing at Mount Dov constitutes a serious violation of the ceasefire, and Israel will respond forcefully,” he says in a statement.
“We are determined to continue enforcing the ceasefire, and to respond to any violation by Hezbollah — a minor one will be treated like a major one.”
Minutes before, Lebanese media reported a series of IDF airstrikes in southern Lebanon.
end
Halevi says IDF will ‘attack strongly’ after Hezbollah truce violations: ‘We have plans ready to be activated’
By Emanuel Fabian FollowToday, 8:29 pm
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi (center) tours southern Lebanon, December 2, 2023. (Israel Defense Forces)
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi says the military will “attack strongly in the face of Hezbollah’s grave violations, and we will continue to do so.”
“We have plans and goals ready to be activated at any moment,” he adds.
Halevi’s remarks are made during a visit to southern Lebanon earlier toda
ISRAEL/GAZA/OPINION
An IDF reservist’s top ten takeaways after returning from Gaza
Reporter’s notebook: I returned to The Jerusalem Post after being drafted for my second tour of duty in Gaza since the October 7 Massacre. Here’s my experience.
By MICHAEL STARRDECEMBER 1, 2024 21:24Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2024 01:41
On Sunday, I returned to The Jerusalem Post after being drafted as an IDF reservist for almost 80 days for my second tour of duty in Gaza since the October 7 massacre. My anecdotal experience as an infantryman and perspective as a journalist in civilian life have given me a unique perspective on war issues, familiar and unexplored alike.
These ten takeaways from someone who has been in the mud of the battlefield should be considered by policymakers and citizens for whom much of the information about the war is second-hand or hearsay.
1. The IDF is winning, and needs to be allowed to win
Compared to their operations during my first tour at the end of 2023, there is a sense that Hamas is collapsing. The terrorist organization once fielded ambush cells that conducted frequent hit-and-run anti-tank missile attacks and ambushes from a wide network of bunkers and tunnels for a guerilla defense-in-depth strategy.
Almost a year later, Hamas seems unable to operate on a strategic level, even from areas in which its battalions have remained structurally intact or reconstituted from degraded units. This is exemplified by Hamas’s inability to launch targeted reprisals for the death of military leaders or even attempt traditional attacks on Jewish holidays or the anniversaries of October 7.
By and large, they do not operate at night or the light of day, clinging even closer to the low visibility of dawn and dusk, whereas their operatives would once openly operate in daylight hours due to being able to escape underground after an attack. It appears that their tunnel networks have been greatly compromised, as they have had to travel along roads and weave between buildings.
Their legitimate operations focus on improvised explosive devices and lone sniper attacks rather than using heavier munitions, but a greater focus has been filming any engagement so that they can edit the footage and claim to foreign supporters and Israeli citizens that they have destroyed Israeli vehicles. Stealing humanitarian aid was apparently not enough for some Hamas battalions, as in one case, they resorted to sending plainclothes operatives to loot food and supplies from abandoned IDF positions.
Their mortar bombs fall far less accurately than they once did, and we did not encounter any enemy drone activity. The Netzarim security corridor seems relatively safe, with paved roads and outposts enjoying electricity provided by power lines.
While many soldiers left Gaza positive about the IDF’s advancements, the path to victory is long, and the journey should not be confused with its destination. Many soldiers have mixed their sense of Hamas’s significant degradation with the feeling that the military is being held back from decisive action, entering and leaving areas to allow Hamas to retain territorial control.
2. Gaza has suffered heavy damage
The extent of the damage to infrastructure hasn’t been completely appreciated by the general public, and Israeli and international leaders will need to develop extensive plans to rebuild the territory. Whole neighborhoods have been leveled during direct combat, the search and destruction of tunnels and booby traps, and the establishment of defensible positions.
If buildings have not been damaged by their proximity to explosives or pocked by suppressive fire, they have had their outer walls shaved away to reveal the possible presence of terrorists. Concrete rubble and trash are strewn along wide fields in the Strip and will need to be collected and moved before some areas are traversable, let alone livable. The IDF will need to prepare to explain the extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.
3. Gaza was far from an ‘open-air prison’
One of the great shames about the extensive damage to Gazan infrastructure is that it was not the desolate “open-air prison” that it had been advertised as being in anti-Israel propaganda. While there certainly were residents living in desperate conditions, the houses, apartments, and villas that we cleared and took position in had a decent and even opulent quality of life. All the homes we saw had televisions, computers, refrigerators, decorations, and stores of food similar an Israeli suburb.
Our impression was not one of squalor but normal conditions. In rural areas, villas and mansions oversaw sweeping vineyards on one side and a view of the ocean on the other, and in urban areas, large schools, restaurants, and other facilities. The lost potential and degraded conditions in Gaza make Hamas’s decision to attack Israel and weaponize its territory – rather than develop what they held – even more of a shame.
4. Hamas weaponized Gaza
Much has been said about Hamas’s use of civilian shields to deter IDF operations – a detained civilian told our troops that he was unable to travel from the north to the south along humanitarian corridors because he had to bribe Hamas operatives who were bent on keeping civilians around them as cover. Yet the civilians are just one aspect of Hamas turning Gaza into a weapon to try to destroy Israel.
Tunnel networks are not just placed around or under civilian objects; terrorist infrastructure is integrated into civilian infrastructure in a way that makes the two indistinguishable. Civilian homes are turned into lookout and reconnaissance outposts, with members of families hired by terrorist organizations to provide intelligence, as was exemplified by the capture of spotters by a neighboring battalion.
Armories are hidden within houses to be accessed by plainclothes terrorists when they have the need to shed the veneer of being civilians. Tunnel entrances can be found on the first floor of apartment buildings, not just in their backyards. Other homes are booby-trapped, leading to widespread suspicion of each home being laced with explosives. With Gaza being weaponized in such a fashion, it has led military units to take precautions and actions that damage buildings and homes so that they can stay alive.
5. The IDF is not conducting a genocide
The purpose of our operations was not geared toward the elimination of Gazan civilians. There were never orders to kill civilians wantonly, and there were debates on whether we had enough information to use deadly force and when it was legitimate to open fire. Civilians were allowed to pass by our positions along humanitarian corridors unmolested.
These elements would not be found among a force that is devoted to mass murder or genocide. Civilian casualties are tragic, and unfortunately, they always occur in war, which is why such conflict should be avoided in the first place.
6. The IDF needs to restore discipline
While IDF soldiers are not engaged in mass war crimes or genocide, there is inappropriate and even criminal behavior. Other soldiers have shared with me stories of looting, and I had to stop someone who had been temporarily attached to our battalion from taking a necklace from a house.
While my battalion did not bring our cellphones into Gaza until our last week, when we were moved back to a rearguard outpost, we have seen the widespread use of phones by other neighboring units.
This is all the more shocking not just because posting on social media can be used by enemies to geo-locate positions and gather intelligence but also because the violent machismo and inappropriate fooling around in videos and photographs discredits the moral legitimacy of the military and create an overly relaxed and familiar environment that can get people killed.
While journalists have to answer to the IDF censor, it felt to many of us that the military has done little to crack down on soldiers who are acting as poor spokespeople, even documenting what appear to be crimes. Even small issues such as unsanctioned edgy uniform patches lead to a breakdown in discipline, which may lead to even greater behavior unbecoming of the IDF’s ethics.
The military leadership seems unwilling to deal with the overly involved families and loss of manpower that comes with disciplining inappropriate behavior.
7. Trust has been eroded in military leadership
The failures of the October 7 massacre have led to a distrust of the military brass among many soldiers and reservists I have spoken to. It has become a common refrain among the ranks to not trust anyone above the rank of a battalion commander.
High-ranking officers are viewed critically as out-of-touch “October 6” officers who care more about the advancement of their careers through checking task boxes on their clipboards than actually changing the reality on the ground.
Reservists and mandatory soldiers alike are results-oriented, and if they feel that officers are more focused on satisfying their superiors than the realities on the ground, their orders will have less validity. The military brass, like the political leadership, needs to prove to their soldiers that their sacrifices for victory will not be in vain.
8. Reservists are frustrated with domestic squabbles
As the news broke that defense minister Yoav Gallant had been fired by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, fierce debate broke out in the company about the legitimacy of the move. While Netanyahu’s camp claimed that there were professional differences over strategy that could not be overcome and that the prosecution of the war required Gallant’s firing, too much suspicion and bad blood had been developed about political plays within the current government.
Many believe that the move was made to save the coalition because the haredi (ultra-Orthodox) parties threatened to leave because of Gallant’s work towards drafting haredi youth. Such suspicions have been informed by some politicians continuing to pursue their prior political interests, such as major judicial reform proponents calling to renew the process.
While soldiers are fighting and dying, they don’t feel that the politicians are with them and take the war seriously. This distrust extends to the opposition as well. With many of the same actors that were involved in the anti-reform camp pushing for hostage deals at varying costs, many soldiers have expressed to me that they can’t help but wonder if they are motivated by the good of the nation or their own political agendas.
9. The IDF needs more soldiers
As the war and debate about who has been drafted continued, reservists have become increasingly frustrated that some demographic groups are benefiting from the blood and toil of reservists while not contributing to the endeavor themselves. My battalion deputy commander and company commander have become involved in movements calling for a more equal draft.
The need for an increased draft comes as current reservists face multiple tours and are pushed off retirement. Our battalion saw a drop off in reenlistment as some reservists had to deal with crumbling families, businesses, and health. Many reservists came despite these challenges – the sacrifices that they have made are beyond just the risk of death and injury.
10. Soldiers deserve victory
The sacrifices that were made by reservists and mandatory soldiers were made under the implicit promise that they would be in exchange for victory. The state has to consider in its policies and strategic decisions not just the feelings of hostage families and residents who have to return home but also those who have willingly given everything for them and the state.
Reservists want a resolution to the problems that led to October 7; they don’t want this war to become yet another round in an ongoing conflict. While we will continue to fight for Israel, we don’t want to have to come back to Gaza and Lebanon in a few years’ time – not just for our sake but also for that of all Israelis and Palestinians
END
SYRIA/HTS/IRAN/USA/TURKEY//.FRIDAY NIGHT//ALEPPO INVASION
(times of Israel)
Netanyahu holds assessment on Syria as jihadists enter Aleppo in lightning assault
Alliance led by Al-Qaeda’s former Syria branch takes control of some 50 towns and villages, in Assad regime’s biggest loss of territory in years
By AFP29 November 2024, 7:17 pmUpdated at 1:04 am
Anti-regime fighters drive along the Aleppo-Damascus M5 highway in the newly captured northwestern area of Khan al-Assal, as smoke rises in the distance on November 29, 2024 (Omar HAJ KADOUR / AFP)
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a special security discussion Friday evening with the heads of the defense establishment to discuss new internal fighting in Syria and the ceasefire in Lebanon that halted more than 13 months of fighting with Hezbollah.
Syrian rebel jihadists opposed to President Bashar Assad launched a surprise offensive through government-held towns in recent days. The opposition fighters, led by the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, launched an incursion on Wednesday into a dozen towns and villages in the northern province of Aleppo.
On Friday they said they’d reached the center of the city of Aleppo itself, as they pressed their lightning offensive against forces of the Iranian- and Russian-backed government. Assad and his allies Russia, Iran and regional Shi’ite militias had retaken all of Aleppo city in late 2016, with insurgents agreeing to withdraw after months of bombardment and siege in a battle that turned the tide against the opposition.
Channel 12 news reported that Jerusalem was concerned about the potential spillover ramifications of chaotic developments in Syria, as well as the possibility of unspecified Syrian strategic weapons falling into the wrong hands.
An unnamed Israeli official told Ynet: “This is something we need to closely monitor and see how it develops.”
They added, “It doesn’t necessarily affect us, especially not in the short term, but any erosion of stability in a neighboring country could also impact us. It seems here that there are also opportunities for change.”
The fighting is some of the deadliest in years, with 255 people killed, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Most of the dead have been combatants, but the toll also includes 24 civilians, most killed in Russian air strikes.
SOHR, which relies on a network of sources inside Syria and is of unclear funding, has been accused in the past of inflating regime losses.
Fighters enter the village of Talhiyah, located east of the northwestern Syrian city of Idlib near the Taftanaz military airport, after the area was taken over by jihadists and their Turkish-backed allies in the latest battles with government forces in the northern Syrian Aleppo province, on November 29, 2024. (Omar Haj Kadour/AFP)
Rebel commander in the Jaish al-Izza rebel brigade Mustafa Abdul Jaber said the speedy advance was due to insufficient Iran-backed manpower in the broader province. Iran’s allies in the region have suffered a series of blows at the hands of Israel as the Gaza war expanded to the Middle East.
Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive. But Turkish foreign ministry spokesperson Oncu Keceli said Turkey sought to avoid greater instability in the region and had warned that recent attacks undermined de-escalation agreements.
The attack was the biggest since March 2020, when Russia and Turkey agreed to a deal to de-escalate the conflict.
Syrian state television denied rebels had reached Aleppo and said Russia was providing Syria’s military with air support.
The Syrian military said it continued to confront the attack, saying in a statement it had inflicted heavy losses on the insurgents in the countryside of Aleppo and Idlib.
David Carden, UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, said: “We’re deeply alarmed by the situation unfolding in northwest Syria.”
“Relentless attacks over the past three days have claimed the lives of at least 27 civilians, including children as young as eight years old,” he told Reuters. “Civilians and civilian infrastructure are not targets and must be protected under International Humanitarian Law.”
Syrian state news agency SANA said four civilians including two students were killed on Friday in Aleppo by insurgent shelling of university student dormitories. It was not clear if they were among the 27 dead reported by the UN official.
Russian and Syrian warplanes bombed the area near the border with Turkey on Thursday to try to push back the insurgent offensive.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow regarded the rebel attack as a violation of Syria’s sovereignty and wanted the authorities to act fast to regain control.
The United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said “more than 14,000 people –- nearly half are children — have been displaced” by the violence.
Fighters set alight a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in front of a building that was seized by jihadists in the area of Zarbah on November 29, 2024, as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) jihadists and allied groups continue their offensive in Syria’s northern Aleppo province against government forces (Aaref Watad/AFP)
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi pledged “continued support for the government, nation and army of Syria,” in a phone call with his Syrian counterpart Bassam al-Sabbagh, according to a statement.
The Idlib area has been subject to a Turkish- and Russian-brokered truce since 2020. The ceasefire has been repeatedly violated but had largely held.
An AFP correspondent in the rebel enclave saw jihadists advancing in tanks as intense exchanges of fire took place in an area just seven kilometers (a little over four miles) from Aleppo. AFP images showed abandoned army tanks and other military vehicles.
Fighters seize a Syrian army tank on the international M5 highway in the area of Zarbah which was taken over by anti-government factions, on November 29, 2024 (Rami al SAYED / AFP)
The correspondent said the jihadists and their Turkey-backed allies took orders from a joint operations command.
Analyst Nick Heras, of the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, said the fighters were “trying to preempt the possibility of a Syrian military campaign in the region of Aleppo.” According to Heras, the Syrian government and its key backer Russia had been preparing for such a campaign.
Russia intervened in Syria in 2015, turning the tide of the civil war that broke out four years earlier in favor of the government, whose forces at the time had lost control of most of the country.
Other interests are also at stake.
As well as Russia, Syrian President Assad has been propped up by Iran and allied groups, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Iran-backed militias have a heavy presence in the Aleppo region after providing crucial ground support to the army in its recapture of rebel-held areas of the city in 2016.
Heras said anti-government forces are “in a better position to take and seize villages than Russian-backed Syrian government forces, while the Iranians are focused on Lebanon.”
Times of Israel staff contributed to this report.
END
SYRIA/REBELS AGAINST SYRIAN ARAB ARMY/SUNDAY ANALYIS
Rebels in Syria take advantage of Israel’s successes against a weakened Iran axis
Lightning advance on Aleppo by anti-Assad jihadist force could be start of wider uprising against Tehran and its proxies
By Lazar Berman FollowToday, 5:06 pm
Anti-government fighters wave opposition flags in Syria’s northern city of Aleppo on November 30, 2024, amid a lightning offensive against forces of the Iranian- and Russian-backed government. (Omar Haj Kadour/AFP)
Syrian rebels, led by the jihadist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, surprised the Bashar Assad regime as well as observers when they launched an offensive last week that saw them capture the city of Aleppo — second only to the capital Damascus in population — within 72 hours, after years of strategic stalemate.
Perhaps they shouldn’t have been so shocked.
There has been a recent uptick in confrontations between Syrian forces and opposition groups in the country’s northwest, which left civilians dead and were seen by rebels as a violation of the 2019 ceasefire agreement between Russia, which backs the Assad regime, and Turkey, which backs some of the rebel groups in the north.
HTS had been building up its military capabilities for years in preparation for such an offensive.
“The group operates a professionally staffed military academy run by defectors from the Syrian military, and it has restructured its armed wing into a conventional armed force structure,” wrote Charles Lister, Syria expert at the Middle East Institute. “In recent years, it has also developed ‘special forces’ units dedicated to covert operations, lightning raids behind enemy lines, and nighttime operations.”
But the primary reason for the success of the rebel offensive and the collapse of the regime forces is the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah and Iran since October 8, 2023.
Mourners carry the coffins of Hezbollah fighters, killed in the fighting against Israeli troops during the past two months war, at their funeral procession, in Maarakeh village, southern Lebanon, Friday, Nov. 29, 2024.(AP Photo/Hussein Malla)
“The timing is not coincidental,” Carmit Valensi, head of the Northern Arena Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Times of Israel.
“They identify well the critical, even historical, weakness that the ‘Resistance Axis,’ primarily Hezbollah and Iran, find themselves in,” she continued.
Some Hezbollah and Iran-backed Shiite militia fighters were moved from Syria to contend with the Israeli ground invasion in Lebanon in October. Thousands more were killed and wounded by Israeli air raids, ground forces, and special operations like the stunning attacks in September in which thousands of Hezbollah pagers exploded on their owners..
Illustrative image of a tank flying the Hezbollah terror group’s flag seen in the Qara area in Syria’s Qalamoun region on August 28, 2017 (AFP Photo/Louai Beshara)
Iran itself is in a defensive crouch, having lost its two most effective deterrent threats against Israel in Hamas and Hezbollah, and after suffering significant damage in the October 26 Israeli air raid on Iran, itself a response to the regime’s second ballistic missile attack on the Jewish state on October 1.
To make matters worse for Assad’s government, while Hezbollah is diminished, so is Russia. Its focus has been on the long Ukraine fight for almost 3 years, with fewer troops and assets in Syria.
What’s more, with the Donald Trump administration set to take office in a matter of weeks, Iran will likely face increased sanctions and stepped-up pressure on its battered economy.
A Russian military police officer stands guard at the Russian air base in Hemeimeem, Syria, with an Il-20 electronic intelligence plane of the Russian air force is in the background, March 4, 2016. (AP)
Speaking to Israel’s Channel 12 on Sunday, a rebel commander made no effort to hide the connection between the offensive and Israel’s military success.
“We looked at the [ceasefire] agreement with Hezbollah and understood that this is the time to liberate our lands,” said the officer. “This operation was critical. We will not let Hezbollah fight in our areas and we will not let the Iranians take root there.”
The rebel commander added that the goal is to topple the Assad regime and set up a government that has good relations with all its neighbors, including Israel.
File: Portraits of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad (R) and Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stand as Palestinians sit at the entrance of the Yarmuk camp for Palestinian refugees, south of Damascus, during a delivery of humanitarian aid provided by Iran as part of the Muslim holy fasting month of Ramadan on March 26, 2024. (Louai Beshara/AFP)
Still, it’s unlikely that this offensive will be enough in and of itself to bring Assad down. HTS will need other groups to attack as well, especially from southern Syria. And they will have to learn to cooperate, something they were unable to do at the height of the civil war almost a decade ago.
Moreover, there is no guarantee that recent success will continue, especially if Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah wake up to the threat and find a way to throw real resources at the attack.
“If so, we could see this end very quickly,” said Valensi.
Seeing the Assad regime fade into history would be a massive and unexpected boon for Israel, the next pillar holding up the Iranian facade across the region to crumble. It would come as Israel shifts its focus in the north to preventing Hezbollah from replenishing its supply of arms, the bulk of which comes through Syria to Lebanon.
Speaking to The Times of Israel, an Israel official wouldn’t say whether Israel saw the rebel success as a positive development, noting only that Israel is “paying close attention all the time to what is happening in Syria, and is ready for any scenario.”
Illustrative: Smoke rises following an explosion in Syria’s Quneitra province as Syrian rebels clash with Assad regime forces, seen from the Golan Heights in 2014. (AP/Ariel Schalit, File)
And there are potential risks, should the rebels succeed in bringing Assad down.
“The fall of the regime could create chaos, and it’s not clear who would rule there,” said Valensi. “There won’t be an address that Israel likes, whom you can hold a conversation with through military force or other methods.”
Israel, it is assessed, would likely only get involved directly if it sees Syrian chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands, or if the Golan Heights were threatened.
Regardless of what happens next — whether Russia and Iran figure out a way to stem the rebel advance, or if HTS sparks a broad offensive against the regime — the timing and success of the attack shows how badly eroded the Iranian position has become. For years, it was the most aggressive force in the region, and attacks from its proxies spooked pro-Western Gulf states into opening diplomatic dialogue with Tehran.
With its massive October 7 attack, Hamas thought it could inspire a flood of violence against Israel from the Iranian axis. Instead, Israel has moved to the strategic offensive against Iran, and it could be that Hamas inadvertently unleashed a flood against its patrons in Tehran.
END
SYRIA/REBELS VS GOVERNMENT/ANALYIS SATURDAY
Attacks in Aleppo ‘ostensibly good news for Israel,’ JISS senior research fellow says
Rakov is known in the JISS for being an expert on Russian policy in the Middle East and is also a reservist Lt. Colonel in the IDF.
By JERUSALEM POST STAFFNOVEMBER 30, 2024 18:04Updated: NOVEMBER 30, 2024 21:11
The Islamist attack on Aleppo is “ostensibly good news for Israel,” Daniel Rakov, a senior research fellow for the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security, said in a Saturday post to X/Twitter.
Rakov is known in the JISS for being an expert on Russian policy in the Middle East and is also a reserve lieutenant-colonel in the IDF. In his post on X, he said that “the fall of northern Syria to the rebels damages the infrastructure of the Iranians and Hezbollah there and will make it difficult for them to work to restore Hezbollah.”
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Syrian President Bashar “Assad will be more defensive, and as he fights for the survival of his regime, ostensibly helping Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon are of secondary interest,” Rakov said, implying that Israeli freedom of action in Syria will likely expand.
He also said that the attacks were “very embarrassing for Moscow,
the Russians were surprised by the rapid advance of the rebels from Idlib, and that the few military sources Russia has in the country will also serve its best interests, as opposed to assisting Iran and Hezbollah.”
Rakov said that Russian forces in Syria “have tried to make moves that they are used to making – attacking from the air, applying diplomatic pressure on the Turks to restrain the rebels, and spreading information that minimizes the incident and exaggerates…Assad‘s ability to deal with it.”
The Russian policy expert also claims that Moscow is not addressing recent reports that Assad met with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Moscow to ask him for help, and then cites another report saying that glide bombs have been transferred to the Russian-operated Khmeimim Air Base in Syria.
The Israeli researcher also stated that Russian state media is largely ignoring the conflict in Aleppo while claiming that Russian commentators on global conflicts said that Moscow is not responsible for the defense failure of the Syrian city, saying that Russia had very few forces there and the incident was a huge failure for the Assad regime.
Rakov notes that Russian commentators have also said that Turkey is not responsible for Aleppo’s security failure either and that the security arrangements in northern Syria were based on agreements between Russia and Turkey but that the latter country had been distancing itself from the former.
Additionally, Ukraine, while fighting against Russia and its invasion of the country, reportedly sent aid to Syrian rebels in recent months, but it was difficult to determine how significant that aid was, he noted.
An opportunity for Israel to strike Syria?
Rakov then entertains the idea of Israel having the opportunity to attack Syria due to the weakness demonstrated by the Assad regime. He also says that the regime could be prone to attacks by Kurdish forces, rebels in southern Syria, or ISIS due to what he claims is Syria’s newfound vulnerability, with all this being terrible timing for Russia as it has set its sights on Ukraine, he argued.
“Assad’s loss of Aleppo damages Russia’s image as a power capable of projecting influence outside the post-Soviet space and threatens an important strategic asset of Putin’s, which is the bases in Syria,” he wrote. “This also reflects negatively on Russia’s image in the region.
“The Russians, as we can learn from the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk, are in no hurry to get hysterical, but the speed with which Aleppo fell will require them to respond quickly,” he wrote.
The JISS researcher concluded his post by saying that while the unstable situation in Syria may cause Assad and the Russians to open the gates more strongly for the entry of Iranian military forces, the collapse of the Assad regime may create a scenario for the growth of significant military threats against Israel.
end
SATURDAY…next of the list of cities to attack; Hama
Turkey-Backed Jihadists Eye Hama Next After Capturing Central Aleppo, International Airport
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024 – 02:25 PM
Update(1425ET): After capturing the central and northwestern parts of Aleppo, Syria’s largest northern city, armed jihadist insurgents led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) are reportedly seeking to take the west-central city of Hama next.
Regional media has cited HTS sources to say they’ve “begun marching towards Hama, successfully capturing six towns and villages in the countryside, including Morek, which lies along an important highway connecting central Syria to the north.” The Syrian government has denied that many of these towns or villages were captured, amid conflicting social media reports.
Importantly, the jihadists also now claim control of Aleppo city’s international airport, which has long been a key regional hub. Russian and Syrian airstrikes have continued to pound the central occupied parts of Aleppo. These mark the first such major aerial bombardments of the city since the anti-Assad insurgents were driven out in 2016.
Amid rapid and stunning gains on Saturday, HTS and other allied al-Qaeda splinter groups have also captured the strategic city of Khan Sheikhoun in southern Idlib region. Dozens of civilians, Syrian Army soldiers, as well as HTS militants have died Friday into Saturday, especially as airstrikes ramp up against the black-clad and well-armed invaders.
The Syrian Army has acknowledged a temporary retreat from Aleppo in order to regroup, also as Moscow is demanding that President Assad quickly restore order:
The military said on Saturday that dozens of its soldiers had been killed or wounded in fierce battles with “armed terrorist organisations” in the governorates of Aleppo and Idlib over the previous few days and that it was now regrouping, redeploying troops to strengthen its defence lines as it prepared a “counterattack”.
It said that rebel groups had launched “a broad attack from multiple axes on the Aleppo and Idlib fronts”, reporting clashes “over a strip exceeding 100km [60 miles]”.
The army said the rebels had entered large parts of Aleppo but army bombardment had stopped them from establishing fixed positions. It promised to “expel them and restore the control of the state … over the entire city and its countryside”.
Al Jazeera correspondent Resul Serdar has remarked, “That this happened in just four days is unbelievable.”
One of the more interesting revelations and admissions from mainstream media has been that this new assault is being directed from NATO member Turkey. The AFP has bluntly said Turkish intelligence gave the greenlight for the attack on Aleppo.
AFP writes that “Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive.” AFPs correspondent in HTS/AQ-held Idlib additionally reported that “The jihadists and their Turkey-backed allies took orders from a joint operations command.”
https://x.com/i/status/1862919069151728032
And this is precisely how Idlib was taken over by various Al-Qaeda factions in 2015: an operations room in southern Turkey staffed by NATO allies’ intelligence officers supported it from start to finish.
The Syrian Army reportedly has a strong presence in Hama in preparation for possible attack:
Meanwhile, below is a brief trip down memory lane to understand how all of this began over a decade ago, and Washington’s direct role in the regime change efforts in Syria…
* * *
Hours after thousands of Syrian Islamic militants entered Syria’s largest city of Aleppo, facing little resistance from government troops, and fanned out inside the city in vehicles with improvised armor and pickups, deploying to landmarks such as the old citadel on Saturday, Russian fighter jets stationed in Syria carried out airstrikes against the jihadist militants attacking the northern city of Aleppo, the spokesman for Moscow’s expeditionary force has said. The escalation follows after the Al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham or HTS (an offshoot of Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra) insurgent group, which was added by the US State Department to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 2018, and allied militias attacked government-controlled territory in northern Syria on Wednesday, breaking a fragile truce mediated by Russia and Turkey in 2020.
end
SYRIA/REBELS/SYRIAN ARAB ARMY/IRAN/ SUNDAY NIGHT
Death Toll From Islamist Assault On Aleppo Nears 500 As Iran Says ‘Firmly Supports’ Assad
Sunday, Dec 01, 2024 – 04:55 PM
President Bashar al-Assad has reportedly sent large reinforcements to the southern Aleppo area after Al-Qaeda linked insurgents’ shock offensive which captured the city. Assad said he will defend Syria’s stability and territorial integrity.
The London-based political opposition group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said Sunday that the total death toll from the fighting is over 400 people on both sides. The tally includes the deaths of 214 members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and allied factions which launched the assault.
And at least 137 pro-government forces and 61 civilians have been killed. The AFP has described that the military campaign launched out of Idlib is being coordinated from an operations room in Turkey.
AFP wrote on Friday that “Opposition sources in touch with Turkish intelligence said Turkey had given a green light to the offensive.” AFPs correspondent in HTS/AQ-held Idlib additionally reported that “The jihadists and their Turkey-backed allies took orders from a joint operations command.”
A fresh report in Israeli media has acknowledged that this is all about weakening the ‘Iran axis’:
But the primary reason for the success of the rebel offensive and the collapse of the regime forces is the effectiveness of Israel’s military operations against Hezbollah and Iran since October 8, 2023.
HTS had been building up its military capabilities for years in preparation for such an offensive.
“The group operates a professionally staffed military academy run by defectors from the Syrian military, and it has restructured its armed wing into a conventional armed force structure,” wrote Charles Lister, Syria expert at the Middle East Institute. “In recent years, it has also developed ‘special forces’ units dedicated to covert operations, lightning raids behind enemy lines, and nighttime operations.”
In prior years, any time an air and artillery campaign against Al-Qaeda held Idlib would ramp up, there would be an outcry from the West, and more condemnation of Damascus and Moscow, urging their militaries to halt efforts to take back Idlib.
According to more on the Israeli and Sunni Islamists’ efforts to roll back the pro-Tehran axis:
“The timing is not coincidental,” Carmit Valensi, head of the Northern Arena Program at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, told The Times of Israel.
“They identify well the critical, even historical, weakness that the ‘Resistance Axis,’ primarily Hezbollah and Iran, find themselves in,” she continued.
As for Iran, it says that it firmly supports Assad in a new statement. Iran’s top diplomat Abbas Araghchi said Sunday he will soon arrive in Damascus to deliver a strong message of support for Syria’s government and military, Iranian state media has said.
“I am going to Damascus to convey the message of the Islamic Republic to the Syrian government,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said. He pledged that Iran will “firmly support the Syrian government and army,” IRNA news agency said.
Iran is pointing the finger at Washington and Tel Aviv for this new jihadist offensive:
Araghchi again called the surprise rebel offensive a plot by the United States and Israel.
“The Syrian army will once again beat these terrorist groups as in the past,” the foreign minister added.
In the past couple days of Aleppo fighting, not only has the Islamic Republic’s consulate in the major northern city come under attack, but there have been reports that an Iranian general may have been killed.
The HTS-led coalition is attacking Kurdish groups in the environs of northern Aleppo as well. Currently there are reports the militants are reinforcing their positions near Hama, possibly poised to attack the central city next.
After years and years of crippling sanctions, the Syrian Army remains in a precarious position in terms of resources and logistics. “Outside the city of Hama, Syrian government military vehicles could be seen all over the roads, apparently abandoned by fleeing government troops after they ran out of fuel,” The New York Times writes Sunday.
* * *
As a reminder, amid this renewed conflict the United States still occupied large portions of Syria, and curiously the HTS/AQ militant groups are not attacking these US-occupied areas…
END
President Bashar Assad’s Aleppo Palace invaded by Syrian rebels
Early reports showed rebels walking around the seemingly abandoned but ostentatious palace.
By YUVAL BARNEADECEMBER 1, 2024 17:55Updated: DECEMBER 2, 2024 01:57
President Bashar Assad’s Palace in Aleppo was invaded by Syrian rebels on Sunday evening, according to Arab media reports.
The take overcomes after Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) rebels swept into the city of Aleppo on Saturday, nearly encircling the remaining SAA pro-Regime forces, leading to a reinforcement by SDF-Kurdish forces.
The Palace was captured along with the nearby Aleppo Military Academy, during which they claimed to capture Russian air defense systems.
Almost the entirety of Aleppo is currently in rebel hands, except for a few Kurdish neighborhoods in the north of the city that still remain in SDF hands. Otherwise, the city has been encircled. Some reports indicated that HTS and the SDF were negotiating a withdrawal of SDF troops. However, the SDF denied this.
Serious collapse
This is the first time since the beginning of the Battle of Aleppo (2012-16) that the Assad regime has lost control of Syria’s second city, signaling a serious deterioration in control for the regime.
Reports indicate that all Assad troops have evacuated the city and that the only remaining non-rebel-held parts of the city are the northern Kurdish neighborhoods, which were reinforced and held by the SDF as regime troops pulled out.
The SDF and the SAA have tolerated each other since ISIS attempted to take over the region ten years ago, effectively partitioning the country into SDF-controlled (Kurdish majority) and SAA- controlled (Arab majority) regions.
In response to the near-total collapse of the Syrian lines, Iran reportedly sent over Shia militias from Iraq under the pretext of protecting Shia holy sites located in Syria, in particular Sayyida Zaynab Mosque in Damascus. The mosque is considered the burial place of Muhammad’s granddaughter Zaynab bint Ali by Twelver Shia. Not to be confused with the mosque with the same name in Cairo, which is considered to be her burial place in Ismaili Shia Islam.
Sunni Jihadist groups, such as those leading the Aleppo offensive, have regularly targeted Shia holy sites during the unrest that has rocked the Middle East since the Arab Spring in 2011. So far HTS have claimed that they will respect all holy sites in captured territory.
END
SYRIA/REBELS ETC SUNDAY NIGHT
Israeli jets block Iranian plane suspected of ferrying arms to Hezbollah over Syria
Israeli warplanes intercept flight, order it to turn around; incident comes amid efforts to prevent all weapons shipments to Lebanese terror group
By Emanuel Fabian Follow1 December 2024, 9:43 pm
Illustrative. A Fars Air Qeshm cargo plane. (Wikimedia Commons)
An Iranian flight suspected to be ferrying arms to the Hezbollah terror group in Lebanon was blocked by the Israeli Air Force over Syria overnight between Saturday and Sunday, The Times of Israel has learned.
IAF fighter jets intercepted the Iranian plane over Syria and ordered it to turn around, and it did a short while later, a defense source said.
The incident was first reported by Ynet, although the news site showed a screenshot of flight data from an unrelated Iranian Mahan Air plane that landed in Syria’s coastal city of Latakia in the afternoon hours of Saturday.
The interception of the flight came as part of Israel’s efforts to prevent Iranian weapons from reaching the Lebanese terror group, during a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah.
In recent months, the Israel Defense Forces has forced several Iranian flights to make U-turns over Syrian or Iraqi airspace, after they were suspected of carrying weapons to Hezbollah.
The IDF has said that, during the truce, it would continue to act to prevent all weapon deliveries to the Lebanese terror group, including by striking shipments anywhere in Lebanon or Syria.
An F-35 Adir from Squadron 140 takes part in an Israeli air force show during the graduation ceremony for soldiers who have completed the IAF Flight Course, at the Hatzerim Air Base in the Negev Desert, June 29, 2023. (Ofer Zidon/Flash90/File)
Last week, a senior military official said that the IDF would not just strike the weapon shipments, but Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime would pay for aiding Hezbollah.
In the hours before the ceasefire early Wednesday, the IDF carried out strikes against Hezbollah’s smuggling routes.
Three border crossings between northern Lebanon and Syria, which the military said were used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons, were destroyed. The IDF assessed that it would take time to repair the crossings, and during that time, Hezbollah would have limited routes to bring in weapons, which would be easier for Israel to monitor.
Illustrative: A picture taken from Lebanon shows Syrian officials inspecting the damage on the Syrian side of the Dabussiyeh border crossing after an Israeli airstrike on November 27, 2024. (Fathi AL-MASRI / AFP)
On Saturday, during the ceasefire, IAF fighter jets struck infrastructure in Syria near the country’s border crossings with Lebanon, which the IDF said were being “actively” used by Hezbollah to transfer weapons.
Thousands of trucks and hundreds of planes carrying missiles and other components for Hezbollah have traveled from Iran to Syria, and later to Lebanon, in recent years, according to the IDF.
Reports of Israeli strikes on Hezbollah weapons shipments began to emerge in early 2013, with Israel officially keeping mum to avoid blowback from Damascus and its allies, in light of the civil war there.
It has increasingly opened up in recent years about the sorties, which have complemented a longstanding aerial campaign aimed at keeping Iran from gaining a foothold near Syria’s border with Israel.
RUSSIA/UKRAINE/
Drums beat
Robert H /saturday
“There is something going on in a picture not yet clear.
Russia has dropped leaflets telling people to get out of Kiev. At the same time yesterday Russians were receiving a bulletin to prepare for an emergency go bag in certain Western cities like Moscow.
Meanwhile it appears that 3 Hazelnuts are ready to go with 2 Sarmat missiles almost ready to launch ( each Sarmat will carry 10-12 Avanguard glide bombs) these typically are nuclear.. Aleppo seems to be taken by Rebels and Thursday Assad and family flew to Moscow.
two days ago Russian missiles and drones took a Ukrainian supply train loaded with Storm Shadow missiles coming in from Romania near Odessa.
i will see what i learn later and write”
end
RUSSIA/UKRAINE
Zelenskyy Offers To End ‘Hot Phase’ Of War In Exchange For NATO Membership
Friday, Nov 29, 2024 – 05:41 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says he’s willing to end the “hot phase of the war” with Russia – including ceding captured territory – in exchange for NATO membership that includes Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.
“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the Nato umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” he told Sky News, adding “We need to do it fast. And then, on the occupied territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.“
Zelenskyy said that a ceasefire was needed to “guarantee that [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will not come back” to take more Ukrainian territory,” or that “he [Putin] will come back.”
In short, to end the war, Zelenskyy wants the thing that started the war.
The comments are a drastic departure from previous statements – as Zelenskyy has long-asserted that Ukraine’s sovereignty is non-negotiable, including over Crimea.
Putting things in recent perspective, Zelenskyy’s comments come as NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte admitted to Fox News that Ukraine is not in a strong enough position to negotiate an end to the war, explaining that there is not enough battlefield leverage to “prevent the Russians from getting what they want.”
“I think that’s crucial that we have a good deal because the whole world will be watching what type of deal will be struck between Russia and Ukraine when it comes to it,” Rutte said.
“We have to make sure that Ukraine is in a position of more strength than they are at the moment,” Rutte continued, “so that a deal can be struck which is favorable not to the Russians — and therefore to China, North Korea and Iran — because they all will be watching.”
It also comes amid pressure from the Biden administration to lower the draft age in Ukraine to 18 so it has enough troops to continue fighting Russia, aka more meat for the grinder.
Former British PM Boris Johnson – who allegedly scuttled early peace talks in Turkey that might have ended the Ukraine war – has called for NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine, again.
Johnson also asserted that if Russia gets the upper hand in the conflict then Britain may deploy it’s forces regardless in order to “defend Europe.” Ukraine’s eastern defenses are currently being overrun by ongoing Russian attrition tactics. This reality in combination with Trump’s avalanche election win seems to have triggered establishment ghouls into a frenzy of escalation with Joe Biden giving the greenlight on long range missile strikes coordinated directly by NATO forces.
Watch the entire interview below:
RUSSIA/SYRIA/HTS/IRAN
Syria, on Saturday is in a mess. Russian jets support Syrian counteroffensive led by HTS supporters with that support coming from the CIA
(zerohedge)
Russian Jets Support Syrian Counteroffensive After Jihadist Insurgents Capture Aleppo
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024 – 10:28 AM
Hours after thousands of Syrian Islamic militants entered Syria’s largest city of Aleppo, facing little resistance from government troops, and fanned out inside the city in vehicles with improvised armor and pickups, deploying to landmarks such as the old citadel on Saturday, Russian fighter jets stationed in Syria carried out airstrikes against the jihadist militants attacking the northern city of Aleppo, the spokesman for Moscow’s expeditionary force has said. The escalation follows after the Al-Qaeda linked Hayat Tahrir-al-Sham or HTS (an offshoot of Al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra) insurgent group, which was added by the US State Department to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations in 2018, and allied militias attacked government-controlled territory in northern Syria on Wednesday, breaking a fragile truce mediated by Russia and Turkey in 2020.
“Providing support to the Syrian Arab Army, the Russian Aerospace Forces are carrying out missile and bomb strikes on the equipment and manpower of illegal armed groups, command posts, warehouses, and artillery positions of terrorists. Over the past 24 hours, at least 200 militants have been eliminated,” Colonel Oleg Ignasyuk, the deputy head of the Russian Reconciliation Center for Syria, told reporters in a briefing on Friday. He added that another 400 militants were killed by Russian and Syrian forces the day before.
Also on Saturday, Syria’s armed forces said that to absorb the large attack on Aleppo – which is located 350 kilometers north of Damascus – and save lives, it has redeployed and is preparing for a counterattack. The statement acknowledged that insurgents entered large parts of the city but said they have not established bases or checkpoints.
Terrorists were filmed outside police headquarters, in the city center, and outside the Aleppo Citadel. They tore down posters of Syrian President Bashar Assad, stepping on some and burning others.
The surprising takeover of Aleppo following the blitz campaign is an embarrassment for Assad, who managed to regain total control of the city in 2016, after expelling insurgents and thousands of civilians from its eastern neighborhoods following a grueling military campaign in which his forces were backed by Russia, Iran and its allied groups.
Aleppo has not been attacked by opposition forces since then. The 2016 battle for Aleppo was a turning point in the war between Syrian government forces and rebel fighters after 2011 protests against Assad’s rule turned into an all-out war.
Before adopting its current name in 2017, HTS was known as Jabhat al-Nusra, and was one of the main Sunni islamist factions opposing President Bashar Assad’s government during the Syrian Civil War. Jabhat al-Nusra was originally founded as an offshoot of Al-Qaeda in Syria.
The jihadists launched their shock offensive in the Aleppo and Idlib countryside on Wednesday and wrestled control of dozens of villages and towns before entering Aleppo on Friday. The pro-government Al-Watan newspaper reported airstrikes on the edge of Aleppo city targeting rebel supply lines. It posted a video of a missile landing on a gathering of fighters and vehicles, in a street lined with trees and buildings.
The timing is remarkable: over the past decade, Syria has become a focal point of rapid foreign military escalation with the CIA-backed Islamic State emerging out of nowhere in 2014 and destabilizing the region for the next 4 years, and now – during a time of upheaval for the Deep State – it is once again Syria that is the focus of CIA escalatory tactics, this time involving another Al-Qaeda-linked terrorist organization, the HTS.
The push into Aleppo followed weeks of simmering low-level violence, including government attacks on opposition-held areas. In its amusing commentary, the AP notes that Turkey, which has openly backed Syrian opposition groups, “failed in its diplomatic efforts to prevent the Syrian government attacks”, which were seen as a violation of a 2019 agreement sponsored by Russia, Turkey and Iran to freeze the line of the conflict. What the AP really means is that Turkey has once again been quietly seeking to destabilize the region and has succeeded.
The latest offensive comes as Iran-linked groups, primarily Lebanon’s Hezbollah, which has backed Syrian government forces since 2015, have been preoccupied with their own battles at home. A ceasefire in Hezbollah’s two-month war with Israel took effect Wednesday, the day the Syrian opposition factions announced their offensive. Israel has also escalated its attacks against Hezbollah and Iran-linked targets in Syria during the last 70 days.
According to social media reports, government troops remained in the city’s airport and at a military academy but most of the forces have already filed out of the city from the south. Syrian Kurdish forces remained in two neighborhoods. The redeployment “is a temporary measure and (the military central command and armed forces) will work to guarantee the security and peace of all our people in Aleppo,” the military statement said.
There was light traffic in the city center on Saturday according to AP. Opposition fighters fired in the air in celebration but there was no sign of clashes or government troops presence. Earlier in the day, HTS told Al Jazeera and Türkiye’s Anadolu news agency that its fighters had entered several neighborhoods of Aleppo. The group claimed to have taken control of over 400 square kilometers of land in Aleppo and Idlib provinces and captured heavy weaponry and other equipment from the Syrian Army.
Videos shared on social media purportedly show HTS gunmen moving through Aleppo on foot and in armored vehicles.
The government in Damascus said its troops have “inflicted heavy losses” on the attackers and regained control of some areas. Local media reported the arrival of Syrian Army reinforcements to both Idlib and Aleppo on Friday. Meanwhile Russian fighter jets stationed in Syria carried out multiple airstrikes against jihadist militants attacking the northern city of Aleppo. Twenty fighters were killed in the airstrikes, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights. Aleppo residents reported clashes and gunfire. Some fled the fighting.
Schools and government offices were closed Saturday as most people stayed indoors, according to Sham FM radio, a pro-government station. Bakeries were open. Witnesses said the insurgents deployed security forces around the city to prevent any acts of violence or looting.
Russia intervened in the conflict in 2015, helping Assad retake much of the country from al-Nusra, the Islamic State, and dozens of US-supported armed groups described by Washington as ‘moderate rebels’.
Syrian forces lifted the nearly five-year siege of Aleppo in December 2016 and pushed al-Nusra and other groups west into Idlib province. Türkiye took responsibility for Idlib in 2018, vowing to separate terrorists from “legitimate rebels,” but never did so. A March 2020 agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was meant to permanently end the fighting around Idlib.
* * *
Appendix: A Primer on the Islamic group HTS, Who They Are, and why Iran, Israel are wary of al-Qaeda-linked jihadists? (via The Week)
Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) is once again in the news after a fresh rebel offensive in Aleppo put the government forces on the back foot. Bashar al-Assad’s government troops lost significant ground to the sudden attack by HTS-led fighters, losing control of several villages and military establishments in Aleppo — located almost 350 kilometres away from Damascus.
In an already volatile Middle East, reports of unrest and gunfights returning to Syria are bad news. As the country braces for the return of conflict-ridden days, the focus is back on the HTS, which was once affiliated with terror group al-Qaida. Here is what you need to know about Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is the principal rebel fighting force behind the fresh violence in Syria.
Syria’s Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham rebels
The US Department of State added Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to the list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTO) in 2018. Traced back to the early days of the Syrian civil war, HTS is an offshoot of al-Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al-Nusra.
Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham loosely translates to the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant” in English. Based out of Idlib, the organization enjoyed operational presence in Syria’s Aleppo, Hama, Dera’a, and Damascus during its prime. According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham remains the most powerful anti-government armed group in northwest Syria.
Who leads HTS? What is its take on Israel?
Initially, the organization was funded by sympathizers from the Persian Gulf. Its style of taxing territories under control and effective insurgent attacks attracted more fighters to its ranks despite the presence of numerous outfits in the region.
In 2017, the group guided by Salafi-jihadist ideology openly split from the al-Qaeda and is currently led by Abu Mohammed al-Golani. According to US-based Center For Strategic and International Studies, despite the split, HTS, in theory, continues to have a secret relationship with al-Qaeda and receives strategic and operational guidance from the Islamic terror organisation.
Also called Muhammad al-Jawlani and Muhammad al-Julani, the 42-year-old led the al-Nusrah Front (ANF) before its merger with the HTS. On May 16, 2013, the US Department of State designated al-Jawlani as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist for carrying out several terrorist attacks targeting civilians across Syria.
HTS: An Islamic organization with “local” goals
The major difference between HTS and al-Qaeda is the fact that unlike the latter, HTS in recent times has distanced itself from the dream of establishing an Islamic Caliphate across the world.
The organisation has declared its ultimate objective to be the establishment of Islamic rule in Syria and the expelling of Iranian militias from the country. The toppling of the Assad government remains the aim of “modern” HTS, CSIS says, despite Abu al-Jolani having made statements like “With this spirit… we will not only reach Damascus, but, Allah permitting, Jerusalem will be awaiting our arrival” in the past.
This indicates the Zionist ideology and the Jewish state of Israel is a sworn enemy of the HTS like most other Islamic militant groups.
A rebel group that governs Syrian regions!
In 2017 of the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), a body made up of independent and HTS-linked technocrats, was formed to function as the HTS’s governance wing. Through the SSG, HTS administers various welfare services, delivers essential goods, and runs food aid programs.
It also has a monopoly on the economy through control of al-Sham Bank and the oil sector through Watad Company. SSG has established itself as the de facto administrative authority in the territories under its purview and controls the Bab al-Hawa border crossing with Turkey, through which flows the humanitarian aid on which 90% of the four million people living in northwest Syria depend, the ACLED report claims.
HTS has pushed the theory that it is “an independent entity that follows no organization or party, al-Qaeda or others” hard in recent years. HTS leadership went to the extent of arresting al-Qaeda-linked individuals in its territories to prove its independent existence. Yet, the West has reasons to believe secret ties exist between the two groups and refuses to engage in talks with its leadership.
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham today: War in Aleppo and total strength
The Russian-Turkish truce of March 2020 ended Syrian government offensives against rebel factions. This gave HTS and its sworn ally al-Fath al-Mubin Operation Room to regroup. US reports show that since 2022, Syrian forces have come under constant attacks by the two groups. Sniper fire has been the common strategy of HTS fighters to target government troops in its strongholds and many lives have been lost in these frequent skirmishes.
HTS commanded the allegiance of a fighting force of between 12,000 and 15,000 militants as of October 2018. It is unknown how many new fighters were recruited ahead of the fresh offensive. It is reported that HTS is supported by several Turkish-backed factions in the recent offense. Although many of these groups dislike each other, they have come together under the ‘Syrian National Army’ due to their mutual hatred for Assad.
end
Andrew Korybko/substack
important
The Five Reasons Why Syria Was Caught By Surprise
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024 – 11:20 PM
Authored by Andrew Korybko via substack,
The disaster in Aleppo was avoidable and is just as bad as it looks…
The Turkish-backed terrorists’/“rebels’” advance on Aleppo, which was analyzed here, came as a shock to most observers.
There was almost half a decade of peace between the March 2020 ceasefire and now, yet practically nothing was done to prepare for this possibility.
This was in spite of the front line remaining roughly two dozen kilometers away from Aleppo, which should have reminded Assad of how vulnerable his country’s second city is.
Here are the five reasons why Syria was caught by surprise:
1. Complacency & Corruption
The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) rested on its laurels because it took the Russian-brokered ceasefire for granted, after which the country’s infamous corruption kicked in to degrade its capabilities. There’s no excuse for why even basic drones weren’t used for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) to detect the buildup that preceded this advance. A large part of why the SAA didn’t do anything is likely because it assumed that its Russian and Iranian allies would shoulder these responsibilities for them.
2. The Russian-Iranian Rivalry
Russia and Iran fought together against terrorism in Syria, but they’re also rivals who are competing with each other for premier influence over Damascus. So intense is their competition that Russia always does nothing other than occasionally complain whenever Israel bombs the IRGC there, never once giving Syria the means to intercept these attacks or retaliate afterwards. Had they not been rivals, then Russia and Iran could have jointly strengthened the SAA, carried out ISR in Idlib, and bolstered Aleppo’s defenses.
3. Distracted & Crippled Allies
To make matters even worse for Syria, the terrorists’/“rebels’” advance on Aleppo came precisely at the moment when Russia is distracted with the special military operation (SMO) and Iran has been crippled by its West Asian Wars with Israel. Without sufficient Russian airpower and Iranian manpower, including that which the latter could have called upon from Hezbollah, it’ll be extremely difficult for the SAA to push the attackers away from Aleppo. This factor, more than any other, might have even sealed its fate.
4. Ignoring The SMO’s Lessons
Even amidst the Russian-Iranian rivalry and its allies’ aforesaid problems, the SAA could have learned the SMO’s lessons on its own and correspondingly prepared much better for what ultimately came to pass. Masterful drone tactics and strategically dispersed units have characterized the attack thus far, both of which are hallmarks of the SMO, yet the SAA was totally unprepared for this. It must therefore take final responsibility for failing to do its duty in learning from that conflict and adapting its defenses accordingly.
5. Not Compromising For Peace
The last reason why Syria was caught by surprise is because it didn’t compromise for peace by accepting 2017’s Russian-written “draft constitution”, which was constructively critiqued in detail here. It’s chock-full of concessions so one can sympathize with Syria for rejecting it, but in hindsight, this could have finally resolved the conflict and thus averted the ongoing fiasco in Aleppo. For this reason, it could be revived during these desperate times, but the “opposition” might now demand even more concessions.
The disaster in Aleppo was avoidable and is just as bad as it looks.
It’s not part of a “5D chess master plan” to “trap the terrorists in a cauldron” like some members of the Alt-Media Community have implied or claimed.
Observers should reject the “insight” shared by those who already discredited themselves with their fantastical takes on the SMO and the West Asian Wars.
The “politically inconvenient” truth is that Syria was caught by surprise, the SAA is on the backfoot, and the worst might be yet to come.
END
RUSSIA/USA/CHINA
Robert H
Commentary for a Sunday: Russia and China May Have Severed NATO Cables to Block an Attack and Delay World War III – Def-Con News
Makes sense
6.COVID ISSUES/VACCINE ISSUES//DRUG AND HEALTH ISSUE
Doc Drops COVID Truth Bombs: “Everything Was A Lie From The Beginning…”
Sunday, Dec 01, 2024 – 02:00 PM
Dr. Richard Urso shares some truth bombs about COVID-19, vaccines, lockdowns, masks…
“Everything was a lie from the beginning. The asymptomatic people don’t transmit. Kids were not harbingers of the disease. They don’t actually, they’re like a break on the disease. Lockdowns were a farce. Masks don’t work.”
“I tell people, I joke sometimes I say masks do work. A lot like bathing suits work to keep pee out of the pool. They’re not very effective. So that’s one of those things that, you know, it was a farce. Pretty much everything they said was a farce. I know we’re still recovering from it. Just yesterday we walked into a pharmacy and they were advertising COVID-19 vaccines.”
“Well if you want to destroy your immune system, take a COVID-19 vaccine. It will destroy your immune system. It distributes widely in your body. It can’t be broken down because it’s a genetically modified RNA. There are contaminants, process related impurities, what I usually call them, but contaminants for most people, that they haven’t gotten out of the vaccines.”
“The drug that I invented took eight years for us to get the process related impurities out. It’s hard to do and I knew this would be a problem early on when they were trying to push this so fast because nobody had ever made these vaccines in anything bigger than a blender. What we had is found is even worse.”
“They put an SV40 promoter in the vaccine, Pfizer did, that actually well known for the last five decades to bind P53 to Guardian the genome and cause cancers. They know that. We just kept them in the head of the Human Genome Project did this discovery with a few other molecular biologists.”
“This is really big news because the contaminants and the impurities in the vaccine are very dangerous and there’s design flaws like I just pointed out. Wide distribution to the brain, the bone marrow, the ovaries, the testes and long term production six months or more in the last study that we did. So there’s a lot to talk about. Do not get the vaccines unless you just want a crummy immune system. ”
“I think the main thing is these vaccines are dangerous. They have process related impurities. They cause cancer, strokes, heart attacks. The data is in 40% more deaths in 2021 between 18 to 64. This is just data we can’t ignore, so please stay away from the vaccines.”
end
special thanks to Robert H for getting this for us:
Shadow of Ezra on X: “In a heartbreaking moment, a professor broke down in tears before thousands, revealing that Australia had administered over 60 million contaminated vaccines to its population. These vaccines, he claimed, have led to alarming new cancer trends and genetic disorders—yet the https://t.co/vP59rHRgE1” / X
And who accounts ?
https://x.com/ShadowofEzra/status/1862579389281562655
end
Bombshell Interview with Dr William Makis on Using IVERMECTIN and FENBENDAZOLE to Treat/Cure Cancer
“WE DON’T REALLY HAVE A SYSTEM OF MEDICINE…IT’S REALLY A CRIMINAL RACKETEERING OPERATION.” – MIKE ADAMS
Forbidden.News
Dec 1
READ IN APP
Dr William Makis is one of my all-time heroes and it’s an absolute delight to get to dig into his research and to share it with you, with this highly-informative interview by Mike Adams.Since the Globalists obviously desire World War 3, I recently went on a preparedness rampage and I bought all of the things that would have made the 3-week blackout/WW3 Rehearsal that I recently experienced, here in Asheville more tolerable. That shopping list is here.I do not allopathic medicine and I want nothing to do with their killing machine, particularly after having watched both of my parents die the most agonizing, horrific cancer deaths one could imagine, between 2010-2017. I wish I had known then what I know now, as they might still be here.Two things I determined that were very important to have on hand were ivermectin and fenbendazole, in sufficient quantities to treat cancer after an EMP or nuclear attack and total infrastructure collapse. This was easily and inexpensively achieved via those Amazon links, above and by following Dr Makis’ simple, peer-reviewed protocol, which he calls the “Future of Cancer Treatment”, here.Dr Makis says he gives ivermectin to his children when they’re coming down with a cold and they bounce back in a day or two. He says it’s practically impossible to overdose on ivermectin, as it has a half-life of 18 hours and it’s cleared from your body within 2 days.Listen, read, watch this information – and be empowered!
GLOBAL ISSUES
MARK CRISPIN MILLER
Four years after “vaccination” started, “experts” are still “baffled” by the rising global surge in strokes, “rare” cancers, “long COVID” and “unnatural deaths”
They blame blood type, unwashed produce, radon, “climate change,” cigarettes, alcohol and/or weed, etc.—i.e., anything and everything EXCEPT for the “vaccines”
| Mark Crispin MillerDec 2 |
Blood type is linked to your risk of having a stroke
October 14, 2024
Blood type plays a fascinating role in the world of human biology, influencing various aspects of our well-being. This particular characteristic has piqued the curiosity of scientists and doctors for years. A recent study has uncovered a potential link between certain blood types and an increased risk of experiencing an early stroke.
New Stroke Prevention Guidelines Show 80% of First Strokes Are Preventable: Here’s What Helps
October 29, 2024
The ASA’s new guidelines, updated from 2014, emphasize that even small lifestyle changes can prevent up to 80 percent of first strokes. Key highlights include a focus on regular exercise, a balanced diet and managing underlying health conditions like high blood pressure and diabetes.
Number of people in their 50s suffering from a stroke increases by more than half, shocking figures reveal
November 17, 2024
The NHS has voiced concern about a shocking rise in strokes among those in their 50s. The number of people aged 50 to 59 who suffer the potentially fatal condition has risen by 55 per cent in the past 20 years. Some 12,533 Britons in this age group had a stroke – where blood supply is cut off to the brain – in 2023/24, compared with 8,063 in 2004/05. It comes as the overall number of those being admitted to hospital following a stroke has risen by 28 per cent since 2004. This increase has been driven in part by both an ageing population and the impact of unhealthy lifestyles on the country’s cardiovascular health.
Here are new guidelines for preventing stroke, the nation’s 4th biggest killer
November 18, 2024
The majority of strokes could be prevented, according to new guidelines aimed at helping people and their doctors do just that. Stroke was the fourth leading cause of death in the U.S. in 2023, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and more than half a million Americans have a stroke every year. But up to 80% of strokes may be preventable with better nutrition, exercise and identification of risk factors.
Scientists hope salmonella could hold the key to treating bowel cancer
November 18, 2024
Salmonella bacteria could be used to treat bowel cancer, scientists hope. Bowel cancer is the second most common cause of cancer death in the UK after lung cancer, with around 16,800 deaths per year. It is hoped the discovery can overcome the problem and help “unleash the full potential” of using salmonella to fight cancer. Bacterial cancer therapy has been a focus of scientific interest since the 19th century but the health risks prevented it being explored further, although it led to developments in immunotherapy research.
Doctors think they’ve cracked the mystery of soaring bowel cancers in young people – the problem could lie with your fruit and veg
November 18, 2024
It’s a worrying health trend that is baffling doctors: the sharp rise in young people being diagnosed with bowel cancer. Cases of the deadly disease have surged by 52 per cent in 25-49 year-olds over the last 30 years, according to studies. Now, three of the world’s leading specialists in bowel health have weighed in, giving their intriguing potential explanations for the trend. Perhaps the most concerning is the idea, posed by Dr Michelle Hughes, a gastroenterologist at Yale Medicine, is that the rise could lie with our increasing use of microscopic chemicals that are in everyday items — from food containers to fruits and vegetables.
‘Young and Healthy’ Millennials on Shock Colorectal Cancer Diagnosis
November 16, 2024
While cancer mortality in the U.S. has declined over the past 30 years, saving around 4 million lives due to smoking reduction, early detection, and treatment advances, colorectal cancer is rising among those under 55. It is now the top cancer killer in men and second in women under 50, potentially due to lifestyle changes beginning with those born around 1950, according to the American Cancer Society.
Why Doctors Think Colon Cancer Is on the Rise in Gen Z and Millennials
November 17, 2024′
In the United States, the number of cases of colorectal cancer (CRC) has nearly doubled in younger adults—especially those between the ages of 20 and 49—since the early 1990s. While medical professionals cannot pinpoint one specific cause, there are many factors that may increase the likelihood of being diagnosed with CRC. Newsweek spoke to three doctors about the rising rates of CRC in young people and the lifestyle changes that can help prevent it.
In many cases, liver cancer is preventable; here are steps you can take to reduce the risk
October 17, 2024
Liver cancer is the sixth leading cause cancer death in the U.S. There are a few steps you can take that research has shown can reduce your risk of liver cancer. They include:
• Getting the hepatitis B vaccine
• Getting treatment for chronic hepatitis B infection
• Preventing the spread of hepatitis C
Long Covid warning signs as millions are left grappling with condition
November 17, 2024
Two million people across the UK are still battling the disease that triggered the Covid pandemic – and with new variants emerging, many more diagnoses are expected. However, with pandemic protocols now a thing of the past, some are left wondering where to turn. Long Covid , or post-Covid syndrome, can affect individuals of any age, with persistent symptoms lasting over 12 weeks. According to the NHS, these symptoms include extreme fatigue, breathlessness, muscle aches, joint pain, and difficulty concentrating. Patients may also experience prolonged side effects following a standard COVID-19 infection, which could subside and does not necessarily indicate they have Long Covid. These include loss of smell, chest pain or tightness, sleep difficulties, pins and needles, tinnitus, rashes, coughs, headaches, sore throats, diarrhoea, stomach aches, and loss of appetite.
Walking Pneumonia Cases Are Surging Right Now. The Reasons Why May Surprise You
November 18, 2024
Though seasonal illnesses like the flu are just starting to gain some traction, there’s one respiratory disease that’s sickening tons of people across the United States right now: walking pneumonia. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published an alert last month warning people about the uptick in walking pneumonia cases. The infection, which is caused by the bacteria Mycoplasma pneumoniae, damages the lining of the respiratory tract, including the throat, windpipe and lungs. The symptoms, including coughing and wheezing, are typically milder than other lung infections, so people tend to not stay home in bed, hence the nickname walking pneumonia.
The CDC suspects the increased prevalence is a direct result of the immunity gap that occurred after the COVID-19 pandemic. During the pandemic, protective measures such as face masks and social distancing slowed the spread of many infectious diseases, including walking pneumonia. But “once masking mandates were dropped and we went back to pre-pandemic practices, we started seeing a surge of respiratory pathogens that were almost nonexistent in the first part of the pandemic,” Ballan said. In 2023, walking pneumonia re-emerged, triggering a wave of infections around the world, according to the CDC .
Increase in Young-Onset Pancreatic Cancer May Be Due to Over-diagnosis of Early-Stage Endocrine Cancer
November 19, 2024
A recent analysis of pancreatic cancer data in young adults (aged 15–39) has found that although there is an increase in incidence, the mortality rate remains stable. According to Patel et al, who published their findings in the Annals of Internal Medicine, the rise in incidence is primarily due to an increase in the detection of smaller, early-stage endocrine cancer, and not an increase in pancreatic adenocarcinoma. The investigators explained that their findings reflect the detection of previously undetected disease, rather than a true increase in cancer occurrence. Globally, pancreatic cancer has become the third leading cause of cancer-related deaths, and the incidence of the disease is on the rise. The vast majority of pancreatic cancers—more than 95%—are pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma, and previous studies have shown that in younger adults, the incidence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma has increased in younger women but remained stable in men.
DR PAUL ALEXANDER
Dr. Joe Ladapo, Surgeon General of Florida; I am very excited & wait in anticipation of the key health post Dr. Ladapo will assume in the NEW Trump 2.0 administration! He came out AGAINST fully, mRNA
technology gene-based vaccines, the DEADLY mRNA shots brought by Malone Bourla et al.; Dr. Ladapo is maybe ONLY high-profile scientist, with myself, Couey, McCullough, Oskoui, Yeadon, Risch, Wolf
| Dr. Paul AlexanderNov 29 |
Oskoui (RIP he fell before we got here and he sure loved POTUS Trump), these types, who have been clear and said the right things and acted correctly and fought against the deadly Malone Kariko Sahin et al. mRNA gene injection; we did not play with words, we did not sit on the fence, we did not cup, no, we laid it down, that the mRNA vaccine was deadly and must be stopped…Ladapo was CLEAR, he called for a stop, hard stop and NOW, he said now, no more, and boy did I admire him and while we are friends and I have broken bread with him and admire him, it grew stronger for I realized he was the real deal…so I wait, I can hardly contain myself in excitement for if there is one person who should be tapped and should lead these US health agencies and help reform them and clean them of the corruption and filth, it is Ladapo, PhD and MD Harvard, very skilled. DeSantis best be prepared for he is going to lose him. I must confess, I felt Ladapo was going to be tapped Surgeon General or FDA head or NIH head or CDC head, I even felt HHS Secretary, yet I am very happy with Bobby Jr. as head of HHS and he has others to advise him. It is in the advisors that leaders get the real input. So I am in full support of Bobby Jr. for he is very smart (reads broad and deep and a equips himself quickly) and I think has the tools to lead HHS and clean it up.
But boy oh boy, I am dissapointed Ladapo did not get tapped prior, but I sit waiting for what is to come for he was clear, the deadly Malone mRNA vaccines must be stopped and no reason to give them, no one save myself and a few others have been as clear on the national and international scene. For that, Ladapo must be given a leadership role to fix all the wrongs of the deadly Operation Warp Speed (OWS) lockdown, the Malone et al. mRNA vaccine, and to help reshape US healthcare going forward.
END
WARNING! Powers at be are moving fast to bring you ‘new & improved’ ‘minor adjusted’ mRNA technology gene vaccines (Pfizer, Moderna etc.) for every disease; it is happening IN YOUR FACE; lockdowns,
school closures will return under new fraud fake PCR-created false-positive avian bird flu non-pandemics (CRISPR, siRNA, saRNA, CAS9 etc); BOOKED! All of it remains a lie, mRNA vaccines WILL kill more
| Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 1 |
They are coming at you with more mRNA vaccine, you have no choice in the matter, with technologies like ribonuclease targeting chimeras, CRISPR, siRNA (short insertional), saRNA (self-amplyfying), CAS9 (cuts DNA) (CRISPR CAS9 gene editing) etc. The fact is that the entire field of mRNA technology and subsequent vaccine has shown itself to be harmful, ineffective, failed! Not ready for primetime and simply not to be brought or be used.
You have to understand, mRNA gene-based vaccines and another pandemic e.g. avian bird flu, is on its way! They are going to tell you they made mistakes and now they have it right. To forget about the past! Trust them! Trust them?
They are bringing a fake fraud avian bird flu, PCR manufactured, just like COVID. Be warned!
They are even doing this in lab via serial passaging etc. making more infectious and more lethal strains. Why? Who asked for this? What is the value added? This is a crime against humanity.
They are about to announce a new pandemic, that they created with the PCR process, a false-positive fake pandemic. And then say you NEED the mRNA vaccine. And CDC and NIH and FDA and NIAID and HHS will move in unison to sell it to you. They will tell you next that lockdowns worked, and school closures, and now they have it perfected. You will see some go against the very things they railed and shouted against across the last 5 years and wrote against PRIOR. They will sell their souls for $, your souls. Your safety. They never cared about your safety and well-being. Just nicely packaged shills they were all along.
END
| Forwarded this email? Subscribe here for more BIG Pharma (Pfizer, Moderna, Bourla, Bancel, Malone et al.), BIG Agri, BIG Food moving to destroy Robert Kennedy Jr. as the HHS nominee by POTUS Trump 2.0? Is he marked for death? Can they KILL him? He is in their cross hairs no doubt and McCullough is also asking this question…can they move to take him out, literally and/or figuratively? Is the women card about to be played BIG time? Dr. Paul AlexanderDec 2 READ IN APP Psychopathic globalists…Is RFK Jr. that much of a threat?Yes, 100%, RFK Jr. represents a major threat to BIG Pharma and their mRNA deadly shot they now want to bring as ‘new and improved’, yes, its new and improved with minor adjustments now to push on you with a fake fraud PCR created fake avian bird flu…and they are doing deadly recombination and reassortment and GoF type activities in labs…to take you down…So, is the woman card being teed up?Alexander News Network (ANN): Trump’s War 2.0 for America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Upgrade to paid Kennedy Jr. has not denied his sexual lust and demons in the past yet can it derail him? IMO physical sexual assault and abuse is a ZERO game, non-starter, and none of this plagues Kennedy Jr. It plagues Hegseth which is a different issue. Kennedy Jr.’s IMO sits with his wife, his God, himself, his family etc. Maybe too it will play in your view of him yet IMO he is a good man, good heart, leftist based on his politics (I don’t support), yet I like him. He represents good, loves USA, not a radical socialist leftist freak democrat, he represents possibility, potential, and can help bring change. I support him! A smart man who wants to learn and does learn!I hope POTUS Trump and RFK Jr. understand what is coming and how BIG Pharma and Food and Agri etc. will lean hard on confirming senators who will not support RFK Jr.IMO RFK Jr. represents our best shot at HHS to help clean that putrid agency out and thus CDC, NIH, FDA, NIAID etc.Thus, he is marked for destruction and death DC styling.‘Allegations of sexual misconduct helped sink Matt Gaetz’s bid for attorney general. Now they threaten to complicate the confirmation of other nominees, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to be America’s top health official.’ |
SLAY NEWS
| Forensic Pathologist Sounds Alarm as Investigation Proves Covid ‘Vaccines’ Behind Spike in Sudden Seizure DeathsOne of America’s leading forensic pathologists has issued a red alert after proving that Covid mRNA “vaccines” are behind recent spikes in violent sudden seizure deaths.READ MORE |
| UK’s Socialist Government Votes in Favor of Bill to Begin Euthanizing CitizensThe socialist-controlled UK government has voted in favor of the “Assisted Dying Bill” to usher in the globalist eugenics agenda by allowing doctors to begin euthanizing their patients.READ MORE |
| Fetterman Slams Democrats for Melting Down over Trump Win: ‘Just Grab a Grip!’Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) has blasted his fellow Democrats for melting down over President Donald Trump’s landslide election victory.READ MORE |
| Texas Police Officer Shot Dead During ‘Ambush’: ‘We Lost a Good Man Today’A Texas police officer has tragically been shot dead in the line of duty during a shocking “ambush.”READ MORE |
| Female Volleyball Team Praised as ‘Real Champion’ After Forfeiting Title Shot Over Male OpponentThe Boise State women’s volleyball team has been hailed as the “real champion” after being forced to forfeit a shot at winning the Mountain West tournament when they were to face an opponent with a male player.READ MORE |
| Scramble to Fill J.D Vance’s Senate Seat BeginsA scramble has begun for VP-elect J.D. Vance’s Senate seat as the former senator prepares to serve as second-in-command in President Donald Trump’s administration.READ MORE |
| Ex-Obama Aide Michael Blake Announces Bid to Unseat NYC Mayor: Eric Adams Supports ‘Incoming Fascist President’ TrumpRev. Michael Blake, a former aide to Barack Obama, has announced he will run for New York City mayor in 2025.READ MORE |
| Republicans Sue to Stop Vote-Counting in States Weeks After Election DayThe Republican National Committee (RNC) is suing several states over the late counting of mail-in ballots that is still ongoing weeks after Election Day.READ MORE |
| Notorious New York Federal Prosecutor Steps DownHigh-profile U.S. Attorney Damian Williams of the Southern District of New York has resigned as a federal prosecutor.READ MORE |
| Texas Democrat Promises to Work with Trump to Secure Border: ‘We Can Deport People Quickly’Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX) has revealed that he’s preparing to work with President Donald Trump and his incoming administration on their plans to secure the border and deport illegal aliens.READ MORE |
| Trump Shares Thanksgiving Message: ‘Our Country Will Soon Be Respected’President Donald Trump has shared a Thanksgiving message for all Americans, including “the radical Left Lunatics who have worked so hard to destroy our Country.”READ MORE |
| Billionaire Tech Investor Marc Andreessen: Biden Admin Behind Campaign to ‘Debank’ OpponentsBillionaire tech investor Marc Andreessen has accused the Biden-harris administration of leading a campaign to pressure financial institutions to “debank” customers who opposed the Democrats’ agenda.READ MORE |
| Epstein’s ‘Pedophile Island’ Guest Reid Hoffman Planning to Flee America over Trump’s WinBillionaire Democrat megadonor Reid Hoffman is reportedly telling people close to him that he’s planning to flee America due to President Donald Trump’s return to the White House.READ MORE |
| Michelle Obama Declares She Has ‘No Sympathy’ for Melania TrumpMichelle Obama has lashed out at incoming First Lady Melania Trump as hate and bitterness continue to engulf the Democrats.READ MORE |
| Biden’s Education Department Targeted Christian Schools, Report ShowsPresident Joe Biden’s Department of Education (DOE) targeted Christian and career schools far more than others, a new report has revealed.READ MORE |
| Biden Justice Department Arrests More Jan 6 Defendants Despite Trump’s Promise to Grant ClemencyLame-duck President Joe Biden’s Department of Justice (DOJ) is continuing to pursue defendants from the January 6, 2021, protest at the U.S. Capitol.READ MORE |
| My Chemical Romance Drummer Bob Bryar Found Dead at 44Former My Chemical Romance drummer Bob Bryar has been found dead after tragically dying unexpectedly at his home.READ MORE |
| CNN Anchor Visibly Shocked by Trump’s Border Czar Threatening to ‘Jail’ Denver’s Democrat MayorCNN anchor Kasie Hunt was unable to hide her shock after playing a clip of President Donald Trump’s incoming border czar threatening to “jail” Denver’s Democrat mayor.READ MORE |
| Defeated Democrat Senator Comes Out as ‘Election Denier,’ Claims GOP ‘Rigged the System’ to WinDemocrat Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) has come out as an “election denier” following his crushing defeat by President Donald Trump-endorsed Republican Senator-elect Bernie Moreno.READ MORE |
| Top Kamala Harris Campaign Official Admits Democrats Are ‘Losing the Culture War’A senior official on Kamala Harris’s failed presidential campaign has warned the Democrats that the Left is “losing the culture war.”READ MORE |
| Middle-Eastern Terror Suspect Caught Trying to Illegally Cross Northern Border into U.SFederal authorities have arrested a suspected terrorist from the Middle East who was trying to enter the country illegally by crossing the Northern Border from Canada.READ MORE |
EVOL NEWS
| Renowned Virologist Warns ‘Vaccinated People’ Face Looming Wave of Death & DiseaseA world-renowned virologist has warned that the devastating true impact of the mass Covid mRNA vaccination campaign has yet to play out.READ MORE |
| Deadly Cancers Skyrocket Among Fit & Healthy Young WomenExperts are warning that deadly cancer cases are skyrocketing among fit and healthy young women.READ MORE |
| Arizona Man Arrested for Making Disturbing Death Threat Videos Against TrumpFederal authorities have arrested an Arizona man for making bizarre and disturbing threats against President Donald Trump.READ MORE |
| Sheriffs Nationwide Vow to Support Trump’s Deportation AgendaAs President Donald Trump prepares to begin his second term in January, all eyes are on his mass deportation agenda.READ MORE |
| Bill Clinton Admits He Suffered ‘Outbursts of Rage’ for ‘2 Years’ over Trump’s 2016 VictoryBill Clinton has admitted that he struggled to cope in the aftermath of his wife getting crushed by President Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election.READ MORE |
| Federal Appeals Court: Biden Admin Unlawfully Cut Razor Wire Texas Installed Along Mexico BorderA federal appeals court has ruled that Texas could secure its border using razor wire and other barriers.READ MORE |
| Ex-Democrat Megadonor John Morgan Praises Barron Trump: ‘A Lot Smarter Than Everybody in Harris Campaign’Former Democrat megadonor John Morgan has highlighted Barron Trump’s strategic acumen during his father’s re-election campaign.READ MORE |
NEWS ADDICTS
| ‘Merry Christmas’ Signs Spotted at Target as ‘Gay Santa’ Phased OutChristmas has returned to Target stores in an unexpected fashion this year, as several shoppers have spotted “Merry Christmas” signs within stores in recent days. The saying, which had been phased out by the chain for several years, made an unannounced return this season, prompting shoppers to share and celebrate the discovery of the phrase’s return on social media. The …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Just Before His Death Home Depot Co-Founder Set the Fate of His $10 Billion FortuneShortly before the death of a Home Depot co-founder, he stipulated the fate of his massive fortune — and a deadline for his will to be executed. Bernie Marcus, co-founder of the home improvement giant, died at 95 on Nov. 4 in his Florida home, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Shortly before his death, however, Marcus set the fate of …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| BIG President Trump reveals that several nominees targeted with swatting and bomb threats!President-elect Trump’s transition team has just revealed that several of his nominees were targeted with swatting and bomb threats. Here’s the press release: pic.twitter.com/TvSRIg6R7G — Karoline Leavitt (@karolineleavitt) November 27, 2024 Fox News has revealed that the nominees who were targeted were Pete Hegseth, John Ratcliffe and Elise Stefanik. Here’s a video someone just posted from Fox News: Fox News …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Bomb Squad Rushes to Matt Gaetz’s Home After Major ThreatAuthorities responded to the home of Matt Gaetz, the former Florida congressman and recent nominee for Attorney General in President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration, after reports of a pipe bomb threat. The Trump transition team confirmed that several individuals, including Pete Hegseth (nominated for Secretary of Veterans Affairs), John Ratcliffe (proposed for Secretary of Homeland Security), and Elise Stefanik (nominated …READ THE FULL REPORT |
| Massive Trump Statue to Be Unveiled at InaugurationWorkers are putting the finishing touches on a colossal bronze statue of President-elect Donald Trump, a towering tribute that supporters hope will be a focal point of his second inauguration. Standing two stories tall, the statue captures Trump in a defiant pose, echoing the strength his backers associate with his political career and personal trials. Photos obtained by Breitbart News …READ THE FULL REPORT |
MICHAEL EVERY/PHIL MAREY/OR OTHER EXECS //RABOBANK/
Rabobank: Biden’s Pardon Risks Further Erosion Of Confidence In The US Government
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 11:25 AM
By Benjamin Picton, Senior Macro Strategist at Rabobank
Pardon?
US stocks rose in shortened trading on Friday, with both the Dow and the S&P500 closing at fresh record highs. Consequently, November marked the best month of the year for the S&P500 as the index finished 5.73% higher, beating February’s 5.17% rise into the silver medal position.
European stocks also rose with the CAC40 up 0.78% and the German DAX up 1.03%. Confidence in Europe was buoyed slightly by a commitment from Marine Le Pen that she wouldn’t bring down Michel Barnier’s government before the weekend over deep disagreements on Barnier’s budget. Despite the stay of execution, the two sides appear to have irreconcilable views over social spending, and its hard to see a situation where Le Pen’s National Rally allows Barnier’s more neoliberal administration to survive into the new year.
Yields on 10-year OATs fell by ~5bps on Friday and French bonds underperformed German Bunds as November CPI data showed a quicker pace of disinflation in France. Nevertheless, the political instability has taken a toll on French borrowing costs as illustrated by outperformance of Greek 10-year bonds on the day and the parity between Greek and French yields (!). Bloomberg reports that some French corporates are now experiencing lower borrowing costs than the national government.
Meanwhile, over in Germany the far-right AfD published a draft policy platform outlining plans to campaign on policies to leave the EU, the Paris Climate Accord and the Euro if the party is successful in forming government at the early election expected in February. The draft policy platform also includes proposals to roll back economic sanctions on Russia and recommission the Nord Stream natural gas pipelines, but still needs to be voted on by AfD members in mid-January. The draft platform marks a break from the manifesto published ahead of EU parliament elections in June, which did not include a firm commitment to take Germany out of the EU.
USDJPY sank below the key 150 level on Friday as Tokyo CPI came in hotter than expected on both the headline and ex-fresh food measure. Even the ex-fresh food and energy measure was up 1-tick on the October reading, prompting a slight lift in futures implied probability of a rate hike at the BOJ’s policy meeting on December 19th. The OIS strip currently has a hike of 16.5bps priced in for the December meeting.
On the geopolitics front the swift dismantling of Hezbollah by Israel, and Russia’s preoccupation with its war on Ukraine appears to have come at great cost for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Rebel forces recaptured the country’s second largest city of Aleppo as regime troops were left somewhat stranded by Russian, Iranian and Hezbollah allies and were consequently overwhelmed by the Turkish-backed rebels.
In a situation similar to Yemen, civil war has been raging in Syria for 13 years without attracting a great deal of mainstream interest in Western media. In the case of Yemen, that all changed once the civil war impacted upon freight transits through the Suez Canal, while in Syria the ongoing competition for spheres of influence by Great Powers (Russia, USA, China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Iran, Israel etc) provides a useful microcosm of the new global paradigm, but only if one cares to look.
Speaking of new paradigms, Australia’s governing Labor Party struck a deal with the left-wing Greens last week to push through proposed reforms of the RBA. The reforms will create a dual board structure at the central bank, splitting responsibility for monetary policy decisions off from the operational and governance oversight of the bank. Australia’s centre-right opposition parties dealt themselves out of negotiations with the government over the reforms due to fears that the government would use the restructure to “sack (fire) and stack” the monetary policy board with political appointments who might be inclined to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal election due by May next year.
The Greens have been vocal critics of the RBA’s tightening of monetary policy and had previously said that they would only support the government’s RBA reforms if the Treasurer invoked never-before-used powers that allow him to override monetary policy decisions. Treasurer Jim Chalmers had planned to abolish that power and another provision that grants the RBA power to direct bank lending activities. Both of those powers might be useful in a world of increased geopolitical competition where free trade is taking a back seat to state aims and industrial policy is becoming de rigeur again.
Finally, the Wall Street Journal is reporting that President Joe Biden has pardoned his son, Hunter Biden, for federal gun and tax charges despite earlier vows not to intervene. President Biden said that it was clear that Hunter had been “treated differently” by the Justice Department. While this news itself is not immediately market sensitive, Biden’s suggestion that Justice Department prosecutions have not been blind to political considerations in the case of Hunter Biden perhaps risks legitimising President Trump’s claims of unfair prosecution directed against him, and further erosion of confidence in the USA’s institutions of government.
That could certainly have long-term implications for borrowing costs, transmission of monetary policy and a host of other variables.
END
7.OIL AND NATURAL GAS ISSUES/GLOBAL
end
8. EMERGING MARKETS//AUSTRALIA NEW ZEALAND ISSUES//
CANADA/USA
Trudeau Bends The Knee To Trump At Mar-a-Lago After Tariff Pledge
Sunday, Dec 01, 2024 – 01:25 PM
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau Was pictured meeting with president-elect Trump and his team at Mar-a-Lago over Thanksgiving, as it emerged that he has made an agreement to crack down on drug trafficking.
The meeting came following Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on all products coming from Mexico and Canada until they agree to secure their borders.
In a Truth Social post earlier this week, Trump wrote “On January 20th, as one of my many first Executive Orders, I will sign all necessary documents to charge Mexico and Canada a 25% Tariff on ALL products coming into the United States, and its ridiculous Open Borders.”
“This Tariff will remain in effect until such time as Drugs, in particular Fentanyl, and all Illegal Aliens stop this Invasion of our Country!” Trump added.
He continued, “Both Mexico and Canada have the absolute right and power to easily solve this long simmering problem. We hereby demand that they use this power, and until such time that they do, it is time for them to pay a very big price!”
Fast forward four days and Trudeau was seen sitting with Trump, Elon Musk, and the rest of his team.
In a further post after the meeting, Trump explained, “I just had a very productive meeting with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada, where we discussed many important topics that will require both Countries to work together to address, like the Fentanyl and Drug Crisis that has decimated so many lives as a result of Illegal Immigration, Fair Trade Deals that do not jeopardize American Workers, and the massive Trade Deficit the U.S. has with Canada.”
“I made it very clear that the United States will no longer sit idly by as our Citizens become victims to the scourge of this Drug Epidemic, caused mainly by the Drug Cartels, and Fentanyl pouring in from China. Too much death and hardship!” Trump continued.
“Prime Minister Trudeau has made a commitment to work with us to end this terrible devastation of U.S. Families,” Trump further added, noting “We also spoke about many other important topics like Energy, Trade, and the Arctic. All are vital issues that I will be addressing on my first days back in Office, and before.”
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.
END
CANADA
Robert H to us:
Canada’s Migrant Crisis Costs Rise To $16 Billion Annually | Armstrong Economics
“Every Canadian should be asking why are we doing this? And why we cannot help our own citizens? The number of homeless people grows weekly. And it is hard to pass a downtown street corner with seeing a person begging for money. One might want to ask why we are not exporting natural gas to Europe since there is an abundance on the East Coast? And Canada is closer to Europe than anyone else. The wealth of Canada would grow quickly. Never mind the boost to all East coast provinces. And no doubt countries like Germany or England would be spared grieve from high energy costs.
As for Trudeau’s trip to see Trump, he got nothing. Probably because he is not believable.
If Canada gets hit with a 25% tariff, awakening will be quick.
As it is it is hard not to say that the living standards of being in Canada are not declining. Just try to get a doctor or dentist or any treatment and compare it to what existed a decade ago. And that says nothing about the reality that Canada is at the bottom of the G7 in growth. Or that the Canadian dollar has declined in value against the USD in effect reducing the wealth of all Canadians.”
END
ROMANIA
same story globally as the left fight against winning conservatives:
(zerohedge)
Romanian Officials Want Election “Redo” – Claim Russian Interference After Right Wing Candidate Win
When the will of the public starts to work against the designs of the progressive establishment, they lie and they cheat, and they believe they are justified in this behavior because to cheat is a “lesser evil” compared to the rise of right wing movements. Conservatives, in their minds, are the ultimate evil.
This is how we get fabricated scandals like Russiagate and the Steele Dossier; an accusation driven circus designed to prove Russian interference led to the surprise win by Donald Trump in the 2016 elections.
It’s perhaps not surprising that the same cabal would use similar tactics in other key elections around the world as a means to thwart any voting majority that goes against them. This seems to be the case in Romania where Calin Georgescu recently scored a surprise win in the first round of the presidential elections.
The 62-year-old, referred to as an ‘obscure far-right populist’ by the establishment media, shook the country’s political landscape by clinching the most votes and advancing to the second round to face off against reformist Elena Lasconi of the progressive Save Romania Union party. He also beat the incumbent Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu of the Social Democratic Party, leaving the ruling party for the first time in Romania’s 35-year post-communist history without a candidate in the runoff, set for Dec. 8.
However, according to a report by Expert Forum, a Bucharest-based think tank, Georgescu’s TikTok account before last week’s vote saw an explosion of engagement, which it said appeared “sudden and artificial, similar to his polling results”. Expert Forum is a leftist organization which works in collaboration with the European Commission, Council of Europe, World Bank and United Nations Development Programme, along with a multitude of NGOs.
Romanian officials have seized on the Expert Forum report, arguing that Georgescu “benefited from massive exposure due to preferential treatment” granted by TikTok. They say Russian interference is behind Georgescu’s win. In other words, they want the public to believe that an artificial TikTok following devised by the Kremlin somehow translated into a massive shift in votes against the political left in Romania.
Georgescu is a NATO critic and has defended Vladimir Putin as “a man that loves his country”, though he holds that he is not pro-Russia. A primary message of his campaign has been a push for peace in Ukraine and keeping Romania out of the war.
His positions include supporting Romanian farmers, reducing import dependence, and ramping up local energy and food production. He also wants to establish a “sovereign” distribution model based on participatory democracy in which “Truth, Freedom and Sovereignty are the axes of values” in Romania’s development.
Romania’s constitutional court will decide on Monday whether to annul the now controversial first round of the presidential election, held on Nov. 24. If it does, the court will almost certainly whip up public fears that the country’s widely distrusted establishment parties are trying to manipulate the electoral contest in their favor.
The decision could plunge Romania into one of its most intense crises since the fall of Communism
The prevailing narrative implicit in the interference accusations is that voters are stupid and easily influenced by social media trends that foreign governments can control. Just as Democrats in the US wanted the public to believe that online “Russian disinformation” tricked voters into supporting Donald Trump, Romanian elites want to inject doubt into the Georgescu win.
It’s not that the people are fed up with the corruption of the progressive status quo – Rather, the establishment argues that the populace doesn’t make their own decisions and they need protection from themselves.
YOUR EARLY CURRENCY/GOLD AND SILVER PRICING/ASIAN CLOSING MARKETS AND EUROPEAN BOURSE OPENING AND CLOSING/ INTEREST RATE SETTINGS MONDAY MORNING 6;30AM//OPENING AND CLOSING
EURO VS USA DOLLAR: 1.0520 DOWN 52 BASIS PTS
USA/ YEN 150.04 UP 0.506 NOW TARGETS INTEREST RATE AT 1.00% AS IT WILL BUY UNLIMITED BONDS TO GETS TO THAT LEVEL…//YEN STILL FALLS//END OF YEN CARRY TRADE BEGINS AGAIN OCT 2024/Bank of Japan raises rates by .15% to 1.15..UEDA ENDS HIKING RATES AND NOW CARRY TRADES RE INVENTS ITSELF//
GBP/USA 1.2704 UP .0033
USA/CAN DOLLAR: 1.4038 UP 0.0057 (CDN DOLLAR DOWN 57 BASIS PTS)
Last night Shanghai COMPOSITE CLOSED UP 37.53 PTS OR 1.13%
Hang Seng CLOSED UP 126.68 OR 0.65%
AUSTRALIA CLOSED UP .07%
// EUROPEAN BOURSE: ALL GREEN
Trading from Europe and ASIA
I) EUROPEAN BOURSES: ALL GREEN
2/ CHINESE BOURSES / :Hang SENG CLOSED UP 126.68 PTS OR 0.65%
/SHANGHAI CLOSED UP 37,53 PTS OR 1.13%
AUSTRALIA BOURSE CLOSED UP 0.07%
(Nikkei (Japan) CLOSED UP 304.99 PTS OR 0.80%
INDIA’S SENSEX IN THE GREEN
Gold very early morning trading: 2641.90
silver:$30.43
USA dollar index early MONDAY morning: 106.22 UP 39 BASIS POINTS FROM FRIDAY’s CLOSE.
MONDAY MORNING NUMBERS ENDS
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And now your closing MONDAY NUMBERS 1: 30 AM
Portuguese 10 year bond yield: 2.503% DOWN 7 in basis point(s) yield
JAPANESE BOND YIELD: +1.059% UP 2 AND 0/ 10 BASIS POINTS /JAPAN losing control of its yield curve/
SPANISH 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.760 DOWN 5 in basis points yield
ITALIAN 10 YR BOND YIELD 3.248 DOWN 6 points in basis points yield ./ THE ECB IS QE’ ING ITALIAN BONDS (BUYING ITALIAN BONDS/SELLING GERMAN BUNDS)
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD: 2.045 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS
END
IMPORTANT CURRENCY CLOSES : MONDAY
Closing currency crosses for day /USA DOLLAR INDEX/USA 10 YR BOND YIELD/1:00 PM
Euro/USA 1.0486 DOWN .0056 OR 56 basis points
USA/Japan: 149.96 DOWN 0.417 OR YEN IS UP 42 BASIS PTS//
Great Britain 10 YR RATE 4.288 UP 4 BASIS POINTS //
Canadian dollar DOWN .0082 OR 82 BASIS pts to 1.4062
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The USA/Yuan, CNY ON SHORE CLOSED DOWN 7.2696(ON SHORE)
THE USA/YUAN OFFSHORE: (YUAN CLOSED (DOWN)…. (7.2873)
TURKISH LIRA: 34.73 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LEVEL/DEATH WATCH/HYPERINFLATION TO BEGIN.//
the 10 yr Japanese bond yield at +1.059
Your closing 10 yr US bond yield UP 4 in basis points from FRIDAY at 4.232% //trading well ABOVE the resistance level of 2.27-2.32%)
USA 30 yr bond yield 4.404 UP 3 in basis points /11:00 AM
USA 2 YR BOND YIELD: 4.229 UP 6 BASIS PTS.
GOLD AT 11;00 AM 2646.60
SILVER AT 11;00: 30.52
Your 11:00 AM bourses for Europe and the Dow along with the USA dollar index closing and interest rates: MONDAY CLOSING TIME 11:00 AM//
London: CLOSED UP 25.59 PTS OR 0.31%
German Dax : CLOSED UP 307.17 OR 1.57%
Paris CAC CLOSED UP 1.78 PTS OR 0.02%
Spain IBEX CLOSED UP 94.00 OR 0.81%
Italian MIB: CLOSED UP 68.81 OR 0.21%
WTI Oil price 68.88 12 EST/
Brent Oil: 72.16 12:00 EST
USA /RUSSIAN ROUBLE /// AT: 105.99 ROUBLE DOWN 0 AND 0/100
GERMAN 10 YR BOND YIELD; +2.0495 DOWN 5 BASIS PTS.
UK 10 YR YIELD: 4.288 UP 4 BASIS POINTS
CDN 10 YEAR RATE: 3.173 UP 3 BASIS PTS.
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 3.041 UP 3
CLOSING NUMBERS: 4 PM
Euro vs USA 1.0509 down 0.0060 OR 60 BASIS POINTS
British Pound: 1.2669 UP 0.0002 OR 2 basis pts
BRITISH 10 YR GILT BOND YIELD: 4.2610 DOWN 2 BASIS PTS//
JAPAN 10 YR YIELD: 1.065
USA dollar vs Japanese Yen: 149.69 DOWN 0.258 BASIS PTS// HEADING FOR 160 TO THE DOLLAR
USA dollar vs Canadian dollar: 1.4039 DOWN 0.0057 CDN DOLLAR DOWN 57 BASIS PTS
West Texas intermediate oil: 68.05
Brent OIL: 71,77
USA 10 yr bond yield UP 1 BASIS pts to 4.184
USA 30 yr bond yield DOWN 1 BASIS PTS to 4.359%
USA 2 YR BOND: UP 1 PTS AT 4.175
CDN 10 YR RATE 3.076 DOWN 6 BASIS PTS
CDN 5 YEAR RATE: 2.955 UP 2 BASIS PTS
USA dollar index: 106.26 UP 43 BASIS POINTS
USA DOLLAR VS TURKISH LIRA: 34.72 GETTING QUITE CLOSE TO BLOWING UP/
USA DOLLAR VS RUSSIA//// ROUBLE: 106.50 UP 0 AND 0/100 roubles
GOLD 2,641.70 3:30 PM
SILVER: 30.57 3:30 PM
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE: DOWN 128.65 PTS OR 0.29%
NASDAQ UP 234.23 PTS OR 1.12%
VOLATILITY INDEX: 13.45 DOWN .06 PTS OR 0.44%
GLD: $243.46 DOWN 2,13 OR 0.87%
SLV/ $27,29 UP 0.03 OR 0.47%
TORONTO STOCK INDEX// TSX INDEX:DOWN 53,64 PTS OR 0.22%
end
USA AFFAIRS
USA TRADING TODAY IN GRAPH FORM
Paris, PMIs, & Puking Crypto: ‘Good’ News Sparks Re-Inversion Of Yield Curve
MORNING TRADING
II USA DATA
END
III USA ECONOMIC NEWS
FBI
Kash Patel to replace the idiot Christopher Wray
Trump Nominates Kash Patel For FBI Director
08:25 PM
After weeks of speculation, President-elect Donald Trump announced on Saturday that he’s picked Kash Patel to replace Christopher Wray as the head of the FBI.
Patel has been a longtime critic of the bureau who has called for shutting down the agency’s Washington headquarters, cleaning house when it comes to top leadership, and bringing the nation’s law enforcement agencies “to heel.”
According to a Saturday post to Truth Social, Trump called Patel a “brilliant lawyer, investigator, and “America First” fighter who has spent his career exposing corruption, defending Justice, and protecting the American People.”
“He played a pivotal role in uncovering the Russia, Russia, Russia Hoax, standing as an advocate for truth, accountability, and the Constitution,” Trump continued.
Patel has been open about what kind of changes he’d pursue if given the chance. His various proposals include reducing the FBI’s footprint in Washington and “dramatically” limiting its authority. He hopes to curb the power of the Justice Department’s Civil Division and jettison a Pentagon office that produces classified assessments of long-term trends and risks, arguing it is just a tool of the “deep state.”
Patel has said he also intends to aggressively hunt down government officials who leak information to reporters, and change the law to make it easier to sue journalists. During an interview with Steve Bannon in December, Patel said he and others “will go out and find the conspirators not just in government but in the media.” –AP
Patel has served as both a federal prosecutor and a public defender, and filled a number of administrative roles at the tail end of Trump’s first term, including on the National Security Council and in the Pentagon.
And in a sign this is a good move – in 2021 when Trump floated Patel for deputy director of the CIA or the FBI, former AG William Barr said that would happen “over my dead body.”
Former FBI Deputy Director Andrew McCabe said that no part of the FBI would be “safe” with Patel in a leadership position.
In response, Patel told the Washington Post: “Those calling me a danger, let’s just ask them for a proof, a piece of evidence that actually shows I’ve committed any constitutional violations or any ethical quandaries, and I’d love to hear their response to this.”
Current FBI Director Christopher Wray will now either have to resign or be fired, assuming Patel makes it through Senate confirmation.
And as noted above, Patel has vowed to investigate and possibly prosecute regime-puppet journalists.
“Yes, we’re going to come after the people in the media who lied about American citizens, who helped Joe Biden rig presidential elections — we’re going to come after you,” Patel said last year. “Whether it’s criminally or civilly, we’ll figure that out.”
IIIB USA COMMENTARIES RE ISRAEL/HAMAS WAR/ and PERVASIVE ANTISEMITISM/WOKISM
end
iiiC USA COVID //VACCINE ISSUES/IMPORTANT MEDICAL ISSUES
END
FREIGHT ISSUES/USA/
END
VICTOR DAVIS HANSON OR NEWT GINGRICH/TUCKER CARLSON
Yes, Mexico Knows Exactly What It Is Doing
Monday, Dec 02, 2024 – 03:25 PM
Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,
President-elect Donald Trump recently had a “talk” with newly elected Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum about the millions who have crossed through Mexico to enter the U.S. illegally.
Afterwards, Trump reported that their conversation went well, and supposedly both had agreed to secure the U.S. border.
But given long-standing, de facto Mexican policy to rely on and profit from an open U.S. border, it was not long afterwards that Sheinbaum claimed she had not been so accommodating.
Or, as she now put it of the Trump conversation, “I give you the certainty that we would never—and we would be incapable of it—propose that we would close the border.” And of course, she is right: Mexico never would wish for a secure U.S. border, although it is wrong that she is incapable of guaranteeing one should she choose to do so.
What, then, is going on?
Over the last half-century, Mexico has gradually, even insidiously, developed both a one-sided, asymmetrical relationship with the U.S. based on professed mutual benefit and yet sought to leverage America by claiming it is supposedly guilty for two centuries of oppressive treatment.
How does the strange U.S.-Mexico supposed co-dependence seem to work?
The Mexican government has traditionally seen the U.S. as an endlessly wealthy country, liberally governed, and more or less willing to listen to Mexico’s grievances of the sort that are common in asymmetrical partnerships.
About 60 percent of the Mexican people traditionally in polls have voiced a positive view of the United States, yet a surprisingly low number when considering the millions who try to cross its border illegally each year.
Nonetheless, Mexico for decades has conveniently explained the vast influxes across the border, unaudited and illegal, as largely in America’s interests – and mirabile dictu even to Mexico’s disadvantage. Polls tell, however, a vastly different and far more accurate story.
Logically, some 61 percent of Mexicans in a recent 2024 Pew Center Research Poll voiced favorable views of the United States, whose open borders, generous welfare systems, billions of dollars in remittances, and now-defunct immigration laws they see as entirely in their interest. In contrast, 60 percent of Americans, one of the highest numbers on record, now hold unfavorable views of Mexico, perhaps because of the cynical harm it has done through a perforated border.
Mexico says its emigrants, along with those from Central and South America who cross its own borders with relative ease—often with tacit support—supply America with generations of industrious, low-cost labor, robbing it, in a sense, of millions of its own citizens.
It adds that the attractions of El Norte mean that Mexico must put up with human caravans crossing its own sovereign territory to supposedly meet the hungry American demand for labor, drugs, and sex. Indeed, nearly every recent Mexican president has argued that America’s thirst for lethal fentanyl is responsible for the creation of Mexican cartel lords that now run large swaths of Mexico itself.
However, the problem with such ancient and modern disingenuousness is that even if the United States accepted these excuses, apologized, and promised to close the border and keep clear of Mexican affairs, Mexico would grow even more irate. The reason why is that the current relationship has now grown unbalanced to the point of absurdity—sometimes evidenced in past polls that revealed a majority of Mexican citizens both believed in the mutually exclusive propositions that the American Southwest properly still belongs to Mexico and yet they wished to leave Mexico to emigrate to a non-Mexican northward if given the chance.
In truth, Mexico would face insolvency if it did not receive its current some $63 billion in U.S. remittances, largely sent by its own people who crossed into the U.S. illegally. Trump talks of levying a 25 percent tariff on Mexican imports should Mexico not cease undermining the American border. An additional lever would perhaps be to slap a 30 percent tax on all remittances sent from the U.S. to Mexico. That would both encourage capital to stay in the U.S. and raise over $20 billion in excise fees, more than enough proverbially to “pay for the wall.”
However, such largess is still more one-sided since much of the remittances are made available through not just the industriousness of Mexican expatriates but also the generosity of American taxpayers. Their multifaceted subsidies to the undocumented free up billions for them to help support millions of Mexico’s poor in a fashion that Mexico City apparently is either unable or unwilling to ensure.
The annual flight of millions from Mexico is a sort of updated version of Frederick Jackson Turner’s “frontier safety valve theory” of the American West. Accordingly, the Eastern poor and potentially rebellious fled westward in hopes of a new, better life rather than marching on Washington for cancellation of debts or redistribution of property. Mexico City apparently feels that without their own El Norte “frontier,” millions of southern and indigenous Mexican citizens might instead head en masse to Mexico City.
As for the cartels, Mexico knows well that China sends raw fentanyl to its country unimpeded, where cartel factories prepare it for export to America’s addicted and recreational users. There, disguised as less toxic drugs and even foodstuffs, fentanyl will end up killing up to some 100,000 Americans a year—an annual death toll nearly double the total number of U.S. fatalities in the Vietnam War.
Mexico, which also helps China avoid tariffs on its exports to the U.S. by assembling its products in NAFTA and tariff-free Mexico, certainly knows that the Chinese seek both to profit from its cartel ties and to kill Americans and undermine its security in the bargain.
The macabre gambit is likely seen as the Chinese version of an updated Opium War payback, with the twist that the former addicts are now the suppliers.
In an equally sick way, the cartels infuse into the Mexican trickle-down economy, albeit in nefarious and criminal ways, some $30 billion in additional U.S. dollars from Americans addicted to imported Mexican-made drugs tailored for the U.S. market. The presidents of Mexico usually say little about this second source of billions in U.S. foreign exchange or claim American addicts, not Mexican suppliers, explain the growing death and destruction on both sides of the border.
While in office, former President Obrador often said strange things. Two of the most pugnacious were his high-five boast that some 40 million of his own citizens had fled Mexico to cross the border: “Just imagine. There are 40 million Mexicans in the United States—40 million who were born here in Mexico, who are the children of people who were born in Mexico.” (Obrador never explained why his own citizens would willingly flee their own country to a nation habitually caricatured in the Mexican press as racist and exploitive.)
Obrador also periodically delighted in interfering in US elections by urging Mexican expatriates in the U.S. to vote against all Republicans, presumably because they seemed at times to threaten to kill the Mexican golden goose of illegal immigration.
Indeed, in 2023, Obrador urged American Hispanics to never vote for Ron DeSantis’s presidential primary campaign—an irony given Mexico’s chronic complaint of Yanqui interference in Latin American politics.
Obrador believed, as many presidents before him no doubt concurred, that the 40 million expatriates and Mexican-American children, if they were distant from Mexico long enough, would romanticize the country, and so, like most immigrants, become a powerful lobbying force on Mexico’s behalf.
In La Raza literature of the past, and in Mexico’s chauvinistic moments, illegal immigration was envisioned as the ironic response to the ancient “theft’ of the American Southwest. The problem with that thesis is that most Mexicans, as polls have shown, would prefer to live in an American Southwest than a Mexican south.
And it is also increasingly likely that Mexican-Americans will be more prone to vote for border security than open borders—again further proof that their self-interest as patriotic Americans trumps Mexico’s cynical attempts to use them as political pawns. If those trends continue, the American Left and the Mexican government may well lobby for a secure border, in fear they are only augmenting a growing MAGA constituency.
In sum, Mexico understands the myriad ways that an open border, the destruction of U.S. immigration law, illegal immigration, and emigration of millions of its own citizens to America are entirely in its own interests and so hopes to see the continuation of the Biden-Harris-Mayorkas appeasement.
But, given the huge numbers of human trafficking, the chaos, the drugs, the violence, and the financial costs of supporting millions, an open border is increasingly seen by Americans as not to their advantage—as we saw in the recent Trump victory. That reality, not the rhetoric of Mexican presidents, will govern all future negotiations—a truth that President Sheinbaum should digest before she sounds off about a border that she knows her country has done so much to deliberately destroy—and to America’s detriment.
KING REPORT
| The King Report December 2, 2024 Issue 7381 | Independent View of the News |
| On Friday, the last trading session of November, everything (stocks, bonds, and most commodities) was manipulated higher to game performance for the month. High absenteeism for the holiday weekend and abbreviated Friday NYSE session made manipulation easier. ESZs traded moderately higher but sideways from the Nikkei opening on Friday until they exploded higher after 10:00 ET. ESZs surged from 6019.00 at 9:27 ET to 6060.00 at 12:36 ET with only a few minor interruptions. Traders then liquidated for the weekend; ESZs fell to 6048.75 at 15:12 ET. Positive aspects of previous session Everything rallied on November performance gaming. USZs +21/32; Gold +18.00 Negative aspects of previous session Gasoline rallied sharply (but oil fell 0.14 cents) Ambiguous aspects of previous session Are stocks riding short-term upward seasonality to a short-term top? First Hour/Last Hour Action [S&P 500 Index]: 1st Hour from NYSE Open: Up; Last Hour: Down Pivot Point for S&P 500 Index [above/below indicates daily trend to traders]: 6026.84 Previous session S&P 500 Index High/Low: 6044.17; 6003.98 Germany’s far-right AfD to campaign to leave EU, euro and Paris deal (EU on the brink!) https://www.yahoo.com/news/germanys-far-afd-campaign-leave-184218440.html Canadian PM Justin Trudeau meeting with Trump at Mar-a-Lago after tariff threat https://t.co/UBE8hXqxFs  Consumer Discretion (+10.97%) and Financials (+8.6%) were the best S&P sectors in November. Healthcare (-1.16% thanks to RFK Jr.) and Materials (-0.39%) were the worst sectors. Zelensky says he would be willing to cede Ukrainian territory to Russia for first time (with NATO security guarantees) https://www.yahoo.com/news/zelensky-says-willing-cede-ukrainian-193636628.html @EricLDaugh: White House plans to send as much money and military equipment as possible to Ukraine before Trump takes office. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan: “Biden directed me to oversee a massive surge in the military equipment [to] Ukraine so that we have spent every dollar…” https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/1863267218743587185 Fed Balance Sheet: -$18.591B with MBS -$13.297B; Reserves at Fed: -$59.211B On Saturday, Trump announced a 100% tariff on BRICS countries that abandon the US dollar. https://x.com/bennyjohnson/status/1862917775661969808/photo/1 DJT, riling the Establishment, appointed Kask Patel to head the FBI. Heads exploded allover DC! https://x.com/TomFitton/status/1863009848540942484/photo/1 @greg_price11: Working with Devin Nunes, Kash Patel was instrumental in dismantling the Russia Hoax. He was the author of the famous memo that exposed how the FBI lied in FISA warrants to spy on Carter Page. He exposed how the bogus Steele Dossier was funded by Hillary’s campaign and used to frame President Trump as a Russian agent. You’re about to see a million liberals, journalists, and former Deep State spooks on MSNBC say that Kash is “dangerous” for the FBI. The reason is because he fought and was successful in exposing some of the worst corruption surrounding the FBI. @EricLDaugh: Elon Musk confirms that Kash Patel is MAGA’s “line in the sand” and that GOP senators will face political challenges if they do not vote to confirm him for FBI director. @jenniferzeng97: The Chinese people have risen up in resistance! Today, on December 1, 2024, the toll collection at Xintang Village in Guangzhou, China, has incited public protests. After the armed police arrived, all mobile phones lost signal, the area where the incident occurred has been completely cut off from the internet, and no further information has come out. It’s said that the special police have also arrived at the scene. https://x.com/jenniferzeng97/status/1863320774301417682 China claims to have unearthed the largest gold deposit in the world —worth $83B https://trib.al/DilHshf Joe Biden has pardoned Hunter Biden! (Another Biden lie) “I, Joseph R. Biden, Jr., President of the U.S., Have Granted Unto ROBERT HUNTER BIDEN … A Full & Unconditional Pardon … For those offenses against the U.S. which he has committed or may have committed or taken part in during the period from Jan. 1, 2014, through Dec. 1, 2024…” https://x.com/JerryDunleavy/status/1863383482816242010/photo/1 Joe risibly claims Hunter was “unfairly” and “selectively” prosecuted. Biden statement at link: https://x.com/breeadail/status/1863381975874085105/photo/1 @mrddmia: If Biden pardons someone–like, say, Hunter or Jack Smith–they can no longer invoke the Fifth Amendment’s right against self-incrimination to avoid testifying before Congress or grand juries. If those pardoned refuse to testify, they can face new charges for criminal contempt. Today – Traders will play for the Monday Rally and start-of-December buying, especially near the NYSE close, by institutions. Be careful, stocks are historically overbought, and a sudden drop could occur at any moment. We also warned that trend reversals tend to occur near Thanksgiving. Expected economic data: Nov S&P Global US Mfg. PMI 48.8; Nov ISM Mfg. 47.6; Oct Construction Spending 0.25 m/m; Fed Gov. Waller 15:15 ET ESZs are -5.00; NQZs are -24.50; and USZs are -11/32 at 21:15 ET. S&P Index 50-day MA: 5839; 100-day MA: 5677; 150-day MA: 5565; 200-day MA: 5455 DJIA 50-day MA: 42,937; 100-day MA: 41,747; 150-day MA: 40,843; 200-day MA: 40,330 (Green is positive slope; Red is negative slope) S&P 500 Index (6032.38 close) – BBG trading model Trender and MACD for key time frames Monthly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5220.07 triggers a sell signal Weekly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5650.00 triggers a sell signal Daily: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 5922.79 triggers a sell signal Hourly: Trender and MACD are positive – a close below 6006.39 triggers a sell signal Reports say radical Dem Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez might make a run for President in 2028. The GOP would be euphoric if she got the Dem nomination in 2028. Dem Sen. John Fetterman says Democrats lost male voters by ‘insulting’ them, being ‘condescending’ https://trib.al/6ofUcVO Senior Democratic strategist David Axelrod: “Someone has to ask the question, ‘How did we lose 90 percent of the counties in this country? And is that a workable model moving forward? “Maybe the best thing is for the Democratic Party chair to be essentially a technician addressing the operations of the party.”… https://www.politico.com/news/2024/12/01/democrats-dnc-chair-race-debate-00191862 Biden seen holding anti-Israel book during Black Friday shopping excursion Biden was spotted holding a copy of ‘The Hundred Years’ War on Palestine: A History of Settler Colonialism and Resistance, 1917-2017’ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-seen-holding-anti-israel-book-black-friday-shopping-excursion NY Post cover on Saturday: The Final Insult – After months of undermining Israel, Biden shows off book claiming Jewish state shouldn’t exist https://nypost.pressreader.com/new-york-post/?utm_hamburger=todays_paper @greta: I really don’t understand why @POTUS did this…I think it was deliberate – 1/ he knows the press corps is WITH him and watches all that he does 2/ he could have gotten a bag 3/ he could have had secret service carry it-that is why I think it is deliberate. NYC staffer paid to promote diversity caught ripping down Israel hostage poster, allegedly assaulting person filming it https://trib.al/nAACbtV Trump wants Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal before inauguration, Graham says. https://t.co/RoBtr8N8Zz NY Times hammered for article referring to biological women as ‘non-transgender women’ ‘We are women, NOT TRANSGENDER WOMEN. Just WOMEN will do in the future,’ female tennis legend Martina Navratilova posted to X on Friday https://www.foxnews.com/media/ny-times-hammered-article-referring-biological-women-non-transgender-women @GOPIsrael: More chaos as Syria continues to disintegrate now as the western city of Homs is about to fall to rebel forces. Me: Still no response to Assad’s patrons, Iran and Russia . @sentdefender: Reports that Senior Syrian Officers and their Families have begun to evacuate from the City of Homs towards the Capital of Damascus; with some believing that after the capture of Hama, Rebel Forces could reach Homs in the next 24-48 hours. What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters It was the first opposition attack on Aleppo since 2016, when a brutal air campaign by Russian warplanes helped Syrian President Bashar Assad retake the northwestern city. Intervention by Russia, Iran and Iranian-allied Hezbollah and other groups has allowed Assad to remain in power, within the 70% of Syria under his control. The surge in fighting has raised the prospect of another violent front reopening in the Middle East, at a time when U.S.-backed Israel is fighting Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, both Iranian-allied groups… Some 6.8 million Syrians have fled the country, a refugee flow that helped change the political map in Europe by fueling anti-immigrant far-right movements… The U.S. and U.N. have long designated the opposition force leading the attack at Aleppo — Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, known by its initials HTS — as a terrorist organization… https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22 WSJ: Setbacks for Russia, Iran and Hezbollah Turn into a Catastrophe for Syria’s Assad The loss of Aleppo to Islamist rebels represents a stunning defeat for the Syrian regime, highlighting its dependence on enfeebled allies BBC: There is little doubt that the setback Hezbollah has suffered recently from Israel’s offensive in Lebanon, as well as Israeli strikes on Iranian military commanders in Syria, has played a significant part in the decision by jihadist and rebel groups in Idlib to make their sudden, unexpected move on Aleppo… https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce313jn453zo @Osint613 Syrian rebel leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani says they won’t stop until they seize Damascus. @JackPosobiec: The involvement of the CIA in funding and training Syrian ‘moderate jihadist’ rebels is well-documented and publicly acknowledged, particularly in how it contributed to the rise of extremist groups like ISIS. Here’s an overview based on documented information and reports: https://x.com/JackPosobiec/status/1862924609664028935 @COLRICHARDKEMP: Turkey-backed jihadist offensive in Syria is prompted by Israel’s weakening of Iran & their proxy Hizballah. A strategic dilemma for Putin who can’t afford to cede any influence in Syria to Turkey & is expected by his arms suppliers in Tehran to save Assad. Can he spare sufficient forces from Ukraine to contain it? Maybe North Korea can help by further backfilling in Russia. @JackPosobiec: Kurds have aligned with Assad against Erdogan for survival. Turkey wants to push down and take all the north including Kurdistan and take control the Syria-Iraq border crossings. @LeeSmithDC: The Kurdish forces are PKK, a Marxist terror group Obama partnered with. @sentdefender 18:03 Sunday: Heavy U.S. Airstrikes over the last hour, against Iranian and Iranian-Backed Sites near the Town of al-Mayadin in Eastern Syria; with A-10C “Warthog” Close-Air Support Attack Aircraft and other Assets have targeted a Communication Center, Barracks, and several other Military Sites. Significant Casualties are being reported, with Ambulances and Emergency Vehicles seen heading to several Strike Locations. | |
ore scrutiny, a process used to mask the origin of Iranian cargoes by re-labeling them as Malaysian oil.
SWAMP STORIES FOR YOU TONIGHT
NFL, NBA Issue “Security Alert” After Migrant Gangs Target Players’ Mansions
Saturday, Nov 30, 2024 – 04:55 PM
America’s top professional sports leagues have warned players about the growing threat of illegal alien criminal gangs targeting their mansions. This comes after a string of break-ins of athletes’ homes, including Kansas City Chiefs stars Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.
NFL Network’s Tom Pelissero published a note about how the sports league issued a “security alert” to teams after “organized and skilled criminals” targeted players’ homes.
Pelissero continued:
Sources say the FBI is investigating the crime wave as international organized crime. The league, the NFL Players Association and team security forces also have been monitoring the crime spree, which is believed to be tied to a South American crime syndicate. At least one other current NFL player’s home was burglarized in the past week.
“It’s legit,” said one source familiar with the situation. “It’s a transnational crime ring, and over the last three weeks, they’ve focused on NBA and NFL players, and it’s all over the country.”
…
The homes of Mahomes and Kelce were burglarized on consecutive days last month in the Kansas City area. The Minnesota home of former Vikings defensive tackle Linval Joseph, who now plays for the Dallas Cowboys, was part of a series of burglaries last weekend, according to police.
Multiple people with knowledge of the crimes said the perpetrators are nonconfrontational and do not burglarize homes while residents are inside. Instead, they use public records to find players’ addresses and conduct extensive surveillance. Then, by tracking team schedules and the social media accounts of players and their families, they wait until homes are empty — often during games — and gain access and quickly steal items such as cash, jewelry, watches and handbags, focusing mainly on master bedrooms and closets.
The alert issued on Wednesday by NFL Security confirmed the modus operandi and offered a number of recommendations, including not posting in real time on social media, installing security systems and keeping valuables out of plain sight.
Separately, NBC News confirmed a memo sent by the NBA to teams, citing FBI intelligence, about crimes linked to “transnational South American Theft Groups” that target “professional athletes and other high-net-worth individuals.”
An alarming trend of illegal alien crimes has spread nationwide to major cities because of the Biden-Harris administration’s nation-killing open southern border invasion (championed by globalists) that rolled out the red carpet to ten-plus million unvetted migrants.
One of the worst transnational South American gangs is Tren de Aragua, spreading across the nation like stage four cancer, setting up operations in major cities.
Just months ago, investigative reporter James O’Keefe published a US Army North Division memo that warned an estimated 5,000 TdA gangsters were in the US. We suspect that number is a lot higher.
The American people have given President-elect Donald Trump and incoming Border Czar Tom Homan a mandate to fix this illegal alien invasion crisis. It’s time to hold accountable those who rolled out the red carpet for dangerous illegal aliens.
end
Biden says he is pardoning his son, Hunter, after repeatedly stating he wouldn’t
By Reuters and ToI StaffToday, 2:41 a
US President Joe Biden, left, wearing a Team USA jacket and walking with his son Hunter Biden, heads toward Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House in Washington, July 26, 2024. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh)
US President Joe Biden says he has pardoned his son, Hunter Biden.
“Today, I signed a pardon for my son Hunter. From the day I took office, I said I would not interfere with the Justice Department’s decision-making, and I kept my word even as I have watched my son being selectively, and unfairly, prosecuted,” he claims in a statement released by the White House.
“I hope Americans will understand why a father and a President would come to this decision.”
Biden said in an interview in June that he wouldn’t pardon his son, and White House Press Secretary Karine Jean Pierre reiterated this as recently as November 8.
GREG HUNTER INTERVIEWING CATHERINE FITTS
Smart Money Buying Up Real Assets, Not Bitcoin – Catherine Austin Fitts
By Greg Hunter On November 30, 2024 In Market Analysis, Political Analysis16 Comments
By Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com (Saturday Night Post)
Catherine Austin Fitts (CAF), Publisher of The Solari Report, financial expert and former Assistant Secretary of Housing (Bush 41 Admin.) managed hundreds of billions of dollars in her career. She says don’t be taken in by the huge run-up in price for Bitcoin and other digital assets. CAF also says be careful with the latest plan to have a so-called “Bitcoin Depository.” CAF explains, “This is literally a Bitcoin for land-grab swap. . . . So, they take our retirement savings, what’s left of it, and they take our taxes and use it to buy Bitcoin. The Bitcoin billionaires sell their Bitcoin into that at the same time they are taking advantage of the monetization of all the land and minerals. The sell their Bitcoin at the top, and what can they do? They can buy the land. . . . They want out of digital assets, and they want real assets. Right now, the whole race on the planet is to grab the real assets such as land, mineral resources, water resources, etcetera, etcetera. . . . The land ownership of the top 100 landowners of America doubled. They are not buying Bitcoin. They are buying land. Bill Gates is buying farm land. The Harvard Endowment is buying farm land. What you are really seeing is a discussion to sell the unreal assets to the taxpayer and the real assets to private parties. If this succeeds, it will be the biggest robbery and financial scam in the history of the country. . . The smart money is trying to control the real assets.”
CAF also says, “Bitcoin can go much higher, and they can take it to zero, too.” CAF predicts, “Gold will go much higher.”
Gold is one of the assets people can hold that stops central bank financial control. Solari.com and CAF are pushing a free report called “What the States Can Do: Building the Legal and Financial Infrastructure for Financial Freedom.” CAF traveled 10,000 miles by car this year in the USA to help states implement this plan to thwart digital control and a cashless digital prison. The news is encouraging. CAF says, “We can stop financial control. . . . There is a great deal the states can do to preserve cash and checks in an analog digital system. This is so we don’t get cornered by an all-digital, monetary system. North Dakota has a great state bank, and every state can start a state bank. This can protect liquidity and protect the local community. A robust and rich banking and credit union system is absolutely essential to support independent income on main street.”
CAF also says states can start a gold and silver depository and not a Bitcoin depository. CAF has many ideas for the public to remain financially free and independent of government and central bank control. CAF says, “The smart money is trying to control the real assets.”
CAF thinks the Russians will wait on taking the bait on starting a nuclear war. She contends the markets don’t seem to think the threat of war is that great, but we are still not out of the woods on the war front. CAF says, “The danger is not an economic collapse. The danger is we have a war.”
There is much more in the 1-hour & 4-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with the Publisher of The Solari Report, Catherine Austin Fitts, for 11.30.24.
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After the Interview:
After the Interview:
SEE YOU ON MONDAY
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